Sample records for accurate risk stratification

  1. Accurate Diabetes Risk Stratification Using Machine Learning: Role of Missing Value and Outliers.

    PubMed

    Maniruzzaman, Md; Rahman, Md Jahanur; Al-MehediHasan, Md; Suri, Harman S; Abedin, Md Menhazul; El-Baz, Ayman; Suri, Jasjit S

    2018-04-10

    Diabetes mellitus is a group of metabolic diseases in which blood sugar levels are too high. About 8.8% of the world was diabetic in 2017. It is projected that this will reach nearly 10% by 2045. The major challenge is that when machine learning-based classifiers are applied to such data sets for risk stratification, leads to lower performance. Thus, our objective is to develop an optimized and robust machine learning (ML) system under the assumption that missing values or outliers if replaced by a median configuration will yield higher risk stratification accuracy. This ML-based risk stratification is designed, optimized and evaluated, where: (i) the features are extracted and optimized from the six feature selection techniques (random forest, logistic regression, mutual information, principal component analysis, analysis of variance, and Fisher discriminant ratio) and combined with ten different types of classifiers (linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, naïve Bayes, Gaussian process classification, support vector machine, artificial neural network, Adaboost, logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest) under the hypothesis that both missing values and outliers when replaced by computed medians will improve the risk stratification accuracy. Pima Indian diabetic dataset (768 patients: 268 diabetic and 500 controls) was used. Our results demonstrate that on replacing the missing values and outliers by group median and median values, respectively and further using the combination of random forest feature selection and random forest classification technique yields an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the curve as: 92.26%, 95.96%, 79.72%, 91.14%, 91.20%, and 0.93, respectively. This is an improvement of 10% over previously developed techniques published in literature. The system was validated for its stability and reliability. RF-based model showed the best

  2. A probabilistic topic model for clinical risk stratification from electronic health records.

    PubMed

    Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong

    2015-12-01

    Risk stratification aims to provide physicians with the accurate assessment of a patient's clinical risk such that an individualized prevention or management strategy can be developed and delivered. Existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the overall risk of an individual patient in a supervised manner, and, at the cohort level, often offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation from the labeled clinical dataset. To this end, in this paper, we propose a new approach for risk stratification by exploring a large volume of electronic health records (EHRs) in an unsupervised fashion. Along this line, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic topic modeling framework called probabilistic risk stratification model (PRSM) based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The proposed PRSM recognizes a patient clinical state as a probabilistic combination of latent sub-profiles, and generates sub-profile-specific risk tiers of patients from their EHRs in a fully unsupervised fashion. The achieved stratification results can be easily recognized as high-, medium- and low-risk, respectively. In addition, we present an extension of PRSM, called weakly supervised PRSM (WS-PRSM) by incorporating minimum prior information into the model, in order to improve the risk stratification accuracy, and to make our models highly portable to risk stratification tasks of various diseases. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 3463 coronary heart disease (CHD) patient instances. Both PRSM and WS-PRSM were compared with two established supervised risk stratification algorithms, i.e., logistic regression and support vector machine, and showed the effectiveness of our models in risk stratification of CHD in terms of the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) analysis. As well, in comparison with PRSM, WS-PRSM has over 2% performance gain, on the experimental dataset, demonstrating that

  3. Is risk stratification ever the same as 'profiling'?

    PubMed

    Braithwaite, R Scott; Stevens, Elizabeth R; Caplan, Arthur

    2016-05-01

    Physicians engage in risk stratification as a normative part of their professional duties. Risk stratification has the potential to be beneficial in many ways, and implicit recognition of this potential benefit underlies its acceptance as a cornerstone of the medical profession. However, risk stratification also has the potential to be harmful. We argue that 'profiling' is a term that corresponds to risk stratification strategies in which there is concern that ethical harms exceed likely or proven benefits. In the case of risk stratification for health goals, this would occur most frequently if benefits were obtained by threats to justice, autonomy or privacy. We discuss implications of the potential overlap between risk stratification and profiling for researchers and for clinicians, and we consider whether there are salient characteristics that make a particular risk stratification algorithm more or less likely to overlap with profiling, such as whether the risk stratification algorithm is based on voluntary versus non-voluntary characteristics, based on causal versus non-causal characteristics, or based on signifiers of historical disadvantage. We also discuss the ethical challenges created when a risk stratification scheme helps all subgroups but some more than others, or when risk stratification harms some subgroups but benefits the aggregate group. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  4. A new gender-specific model for skin autofluorescence risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Ahmad, Muhammad S.; Damanhouri, Zoheir A.; Kimhofer, Torben; Mosli, Hala H.; Holmes, Elaine

    2015-01-01

    Advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs) are believed to play a significant role in the pathophysiology of a variety of diseases including diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Non-invasive skin autofluorescence (SAF) measurement serves as a proxy for tissue accumulation of AGEs. We assessed reference SAF and skin reflectance (SR) values in a Saudi population (n = 1,999) and evaluated the existing risk stratification scale. The mean SAF of the study cohort was 2.06 (SD = 0.57) arbitrary units (AU), which is considerably higher than the values reported for other populations. We show a previously unreported and significant difference in SAF values between men and women, with median (range) values of 1.77 AU (0.79–4.84 AU) and 2.20 AU (0.75–4.59 AU) respectively (p-value « 0.01). Age, presence of diabetes and BMI were the most influential variables in determining SAF values in men, whilst in female participants, SR was also highly correlated with SAF. Diabetes, hypertension and obesity all showed strong association with SAF, particularly when gender differences were taken into account. We propose an adjusted, gender-specific disease risk stratification scheme for Middle Eastern populations. SAF is a potentially valuable clinical screening tool for cardiovascular risk assessment but risk scores should take gender and ethnicity into consideration for accurate diagnosis. PMID:25974028

  5. Modern risk stratification in coronary heart disease.

    PubMed

    Ginghina, C; Bejan, I; Ceck, C D

    2011-11-14

    The prevalence and impact of cardiovascular diseases in the world are growing. There are 2 million deaths due to cardiovascular disease each year in the European Union; the main cause of death being the coronary heart disease responsible for 16% of deaths in men and 15% in women. Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Romania is estimated at 7 million people, of which 2.8 million have ischemic heart disease. In this epidemiological context, risk stratification is required for individualization of therapeutic strategies for each patient. The continuing evolution of the diagnosis and treatment techniques combines personalized medicine with the trend of therapeutic management leveling, based on guidelines and consensus, which are in constant update. The guidelines used in clinical practice have involved risk stratification and identification of patient groups in whom the risk-benefit ratio of using new diagnostic and therapeutic techniques has a positive value. Presence of several risk factors may indicate a more important total risk than the presence / significant increase from normal values of a single risk factor. Modern trends in risk stratification of patients with coronary heart disease are polarized between the use of simple data versus complex scores, traditional data versus new risk factors, generally valid scores versus personalized scores, depending on patient characteristics, type of coronary artery disease, with impact on the suggested therapy. All known information and techniques can be integrated in a complex system of risk assessment. The current trend in risk assessment is to identify coronary artery disease in early forms, before clinical manifestation, and to guide therapy, particularly in patients with intermediate risk, which can be classified in another class of risk based on new obtained information.

  6. Stratification strategy for evaluating the influence of diabetes complication severity index on the risk of hospitalization: a record linkage data in Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Ha, Ninh Thi; Harris, Mark; Robinson, Suzanne; Preen, David; Moorin, Rachael

    2017-07-01

    This study aimed to develop a risk stratification strategy for evaluating the relationship between complications of diabetes and the risk of diabetic-related hospitalization to accurately classify diabetes severity. The study used administrative health records for 40,624 individuals with diabetes aged ≥18years in Western Australian. The adapted Diabetes Complication Severity Index (DCSI), socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were used in random effects negative binomial and threshold effect models to determine the optimal stratification strategy for diabetes severity based on the homogeneity of the risk of hospitalization in response to variation of the DCSI. The optimal stratification of people with diabetes was specified by four sub-populations. The first sub-population was no complications with an inverse association with the risk of hospitalizations (coefficient-0.247, SE 0.03). Further three sub-populations with DCSI at one (coefficient 0.289, SE 0.01), two (coefficient 0.339, SE 0.01) and three or more (coefficient 0.381, SE 0.01) were used to accurately describe the impact of DCSI on the risk of hospitalization. A stratification into four subpopulations based on the homogeneous impact of diabetes DCSI on the risk of hospitalization may be more suitable for evaluating health care interventions and planning health care provision. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Utility of Risk Stratification for Paclitaxel Hypersensitivity Reactions.

    PubMed

    Otani, Iris M; Lax, Timothy; Long, Aidan A; Slawski, Benjamin R; Camargo, Carlos A; Banerji, Aleena

    2017-10-03

    Hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) are a common impediment to paclitaxel therapy. Management strategies to guide care after a paclitaxel-induced HSR are needed. The objective was to evaluate the utility and safety of risk stratification on the basis of severity of the initial HSR. A risk stratification pathway was developed on the basis of a retrospective review of the management and outcome of 130 patients with paclitaxel-induced HSRs at Massachusetts General Hospital. This pathway was then studied prospectively in patients referred to Allergy/Immunology with paclitaxel-induced HSRs. The study population (n = 35) had a mean age of 56.1 ± 12 years and most were women (n = 33 [94%]). All 5 patients (15%) with grade 1 initial HSRs were successfully reexposed to paclitaxel, 1 patient at the standard infusion rate and 4 patients at 50% of the standard infusion rate. Thirty patients (85%) with grade 2 to 4 initial HSRs underwent initial paclitaxel desensitization based on the risk stratification pathway. No patients developed severe HSRs using the pathway. Eleven (31%) patients had HSRs that were mild to moderate in nature (grade 1, n = 4 [11%]; grade 2, n = 6 [17%]; grade 3, n = 1 [3%]) during their first desensitization. Sixteen (46%) of the 35 patients safely returned to the outpatient infusion setting for paclitaxel treatment at 50% of the standard infusion rate. Seven (20%) discontinued paclitaxel before the completion of the risk stratification pathway because of disease progression, completion of therapy, or death. A management strategy using the initial HSR severity for risk stratification allowed patients to receive paclitaxel safely. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Cardiac risk stratification: Role of the coronary calcium score

    PubMed Central

    Sharma, Rakesh K; Sharma, Rajiv K; Voelker, Donald J; Singh, Vibhuti N; Pahuja, Deepak; Nash, Teresa; Reddy, Hanumanth K

    2010-01-01

    Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an integral part of atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD is the leading cause of death in industrialized nations and there is a constant effort to develop preventative strategies. The emphasis is on risk stratification and primary risk prevention in asymptomatic patients to decrease cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The Framingham Risk Score predicts CHD events only moderately well where family history is not included as a risk factor. There has been an exploration for new tests for better risk stratification and risk factor modification. While the Framingham Risk Score, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project, and European Prospective Cardiovascular Munster study remain excellent tools for risk factor modification, the CAC score may have additional benefit in risk assessment. There have been several studies supporting the role of CAC score for prediction of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. It has been shown to have great scope in risk stratification of asymptomatic patients in the emergency room. Additionally, it may help in assessment of progression or regression of coronary artery disease. Furthermore, the CAC score may help differentiate ischemic from nonischemic cardiomyopathy. PMID:20730016

  9. Quantitative risk stratification in Markov chains with limiting conditional distributions.

    PubMed

    Chan, David C; Pollett, Philip K; Weinstein, Milton C

    2009-01-01

    Many clinical decisions require patient risk stratification. The authors introduce the concept of limiting conditional distributions, which describe the equilibrium proportion of surviving patients occupying each disease state in a Markov chain with death. Such distributions can quantitatively describe risk stratification. The authors first establish conditions for the existence of a positive limiting conditional distribution in a general Markov chain and describe a framework for risk stratification using the limiting conditional distribution. They then apply their framework to a clinical example of a treatment indicated for high-risk patients, first to infer the risk of patients selected for treatment in clinical trials and then to predict the outcomes of expanding treatment to other populations of risk. For the general chain, a positive limiting conditional distribution exists only if patients in the earliest state have the lowest combined risk of progression or death. The authors show that in their general framework, outcomes and population risk are interchangeable. For the clinical example, they estimate that previous clinical trials have selected the upper quintile of patient risk for this treatment, but they also show that expanded treatment would weakly dominate this degree of targeted treatment, and universal treatment may be cost-effective. Limiting conditional distributions exist in most Markov models of progressive diseases and are well suited to represent risk stratification quantitatively. This framework can characterize patient risk in clinical trials and predict outcomes for other populations of risk.

  10. Cardiac risk stratification in cardiac rehabilitation programs: a review of protocols

    PubMed Central

    da Silva, Anne Kastelianne França; Barbosa, Marianne Penachini da Costa de Rezende; Bernardo, Aline Fernanda Barbosa; Vanderlei, Franciele Marques; Pacagnelli, Francis Lopes; Vanderlei, Luiz Carlos Marques

    2014-01-01

    Objective Gather and describe general characteristics of different protocols of risk stratification for cardiac patients undergoing exercise. Methods We conducted searches in LILACS, IBECS, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and SciELO electronic databases, using the following descriptors: Cardiovascular Disease, Rehabilitation Centers, Practice Guideline, Exercise and Risk Stratification in the past 20 years. Results Were selected eight studies addressing methods of risk stratification in patients undergoing exercise. Conclusion None of the methods described could cover every situation the patient can be subjected to; however, they are essential to exercise prescription. PMID:25140477

  11. Risk stratification of prostate cancer: integrating multiparametric MRI, nomograms and biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Matthew J; George, Arvin K; Maruf, Mahir; Frye, Thomas P; Muthigi, Akhil; Kongnyuy, Michael; Valayil, Subin G; Pinto, Peter A

    2016-01-01

    Accurate risk stratification of prostate cancer is achieved with a number of existing tools to ensure the identification of at-risk patients, characterization of disease aggressiveness, prediction of cancer burden and extrapolation of treatment outcomes for appropriate management of the disease. Statistical tables and nomograms using classic clinicopathological variables have long been the standard of care. However, the introduction of multiparametric MRI, along with fusion-guided targeted prostate biopsy and novel biomarkers, are being assimilated into clinical practice. The majority of studies to date present the outcomes of each in isolation. The current review offers a critical and objective assessment regarding the integration of multiparametric MRI and fusion-guided prostate biopsy with novel biomarkers and predictive nomograms in contemporary clinical practice. PMID:27400645

  12. Unification of favourable intermediate-, unfavourable intermediate-, and very high-risk stratification criteria for prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Zumsteg, Zachary S; Zelefsky, Michael J; Woo, Kaitlin M; Spratt, Daniel E; Kollmeier, Marisa A; McBride, Sean; Pei, Xin; Sandler, Howard M; Zhang, Zhigang

    2017-11-01

    To improve on the existing risk-stratification systems for prostate cancer. This was a retrospective investigation including 2 248 patients undergoing dose-escalated external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) at a single institution. We separated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) intermediate-risk prostate cancer into 'favourable' and 'unfavourable' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC), and number of NCCN intermediate-risk factors. Similarly, NCCN high-risk prostate cancer was stratified into 'standard' and 'very high-risk' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, PPBC, number of NCCN high-risk factors, and stage T3b-T4 disease. Patients with unfavourable-intermediate-risk (UIR) prostate cancer had significantly inferior prostate-specific antigen relapse-free survival (PSA-RFS, P < 0.001), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS, P < 0.001), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM, P < 0.001), and overall survival (OS, P < 0.001) compared with patients with favourable-intermediate-risk (FIR) prostate cancer. Similarly, patients with very high-risk (VHR) prostate cancer had significantly worse PSA-RFS (P < 0.001), DMFS (P < 0.001), and PCSM (P = 0.001) compared with patients with standard high-risk (SHR) prostate cancer. Moreover, patients with FIR and low-risk prostate cancer had similar outcomes, as did patients with UIR and SHR prostate cancer. Consequently, we propose the following risk-stratification system: Group 1, low risk and FIR; Group 2, UIR and SHR; and Group 3, VHR. These groups have markedly different outcomes, with 8-year distant metastasis rates of 3%, 9%, and 29% (P < 0.001) for Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively, and 8-year PCSM of 1%, 4%, and 13% (P < 0.001) after EBRT. This modified stratification system was significantly more accurate than the three-tiered NCCN system currently in clinical use for all outcomes. Modifying the NCCN risk-stratification system to group FIR with low-risk patients and UIR

  13. Customized oligonucleotide microarray gene expression-based classification of neuroblastoma patients outperforms current clinical risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Oberthuer, André; Berthold, Frank; Warnat, Patrick; Hero, Barbara; Kahlert, Yvonne; Spitz, Rüdiger; Ernestus, Karen; König, Rainer; Haas, Stefan; Eils, Roland; Schwab, Manfred; Brors, Benedikt; Westermann, Frank; Fischer, Matthias

    2006-11-01

    To develop a gene expression-based classifier for neuroblastoma patients that reliably predicts courses of the disease. Two hundred fifty-one neuroblastoma specimens were analyzed using a customized oligonucleotide microarray comprising 10,163 probes for transcripts with differential expression in clinical subgroups of the disease. Subsequently, the prediction analysis for microarrays (PAM) was applied to a first set of patients with maximally divergent clinical courses (n = 77). The classification accuracy was estimated by a complete 10-times-repeated 10-fold cross validation, and a 144-gene predictor was constructed from this set. This classifier's predictive power was evaluated in an independent second set (n = 174) by comparing results of the gene expression-based classification with those of risk stratification systems of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States. The first set of patients was accurately predicted by PAM (cross-validated accuracy, 99%). Within the second set, the PAM classifier significantly separated cohorts with distinct courses (3-year event-free survival [EFS] 0.86 +/- 0.03 [favorable; n = 115] v 0.52 +/- 0.07 [unfavorable; n = 59] and 3-year overall survival 0.99 +/- 0.01 v 0.84 +/- 0.05; both P < .0001) and separated risk groups of current neuroblastoma trials into subgroups with divergent outcome (NB2004: low-risk 3-year EFS 0.86 +/- 0.04 v 0.25 +/- 0.15, P < .0001; intermediate-risk 1.00 v 0.57 +/- 0.19, P = .018; high-risk 0.81 +/- 0.10 v 0.56 +/- 0.08, P = .06). In a multivariate Cox regression model, the PAM predictor classified patients of the second set more accurately than risk stratification of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States (P < .001; hazard ratio, 4.756 [95% CI, 2.544 to 8.893]). Integration of gene expression-based class prediction of neuroblastoma patients may improve risk estimation of current neuroblastoma trials.

  14. Implementing system-wide risk stratification approaches: A review of critical success and failure factors.

    PubMed

    Huckel Schneider, Carmen; Gillespie, James A; Wilson, Andrew

    2017-05-01

    Risk stratification has become a widely used tool for linking people identified at risk of health deterioration to the most appropriate evidence-based care. This article systematically reviews recent literature to determine key factors that have been identified as critical enablers and/or barriers to successful implementation of risk stratification tools at a system level. A systematic search found 23 articles and four promising protocols for inclusion in the review, covering the use to 20 different risk stratification tools. These articles reported on only a small fraction of the risk stratification tools used in health systems; suggesting that while the development and statistical validation of risk stratification algorithms is widely reported, there has been little published evaluation of how they are implemented in real-world settings. Controlled studies provided some evidence that the use of risk stratification tools in combination with a care management plan offer patient benefits and that the use of a risk stratification tool to determine components of a care management plan may contribute to reductions in hospital readmissions, patient satisfaction and improved patient outcomes. Studies with the strongest focus on implementation used qualitative and case study methods. Among these, the literature converged on four key areas of implementation that were found to be critical for overcoming barriers to success: the engagement of clinicians and safeguarding equity, both of which address barriers of acceptance; the health system context to address administrative, political and system design barriers; and data management and integration to address logistical barriers.

  15. The evolving field of prognostication and risk stratification in MDS: Recent developments and future directions.

    PubMed

    Lee, Eun-Ju; Podoltsev, Nikolai; Gore, Steven D; Zeidan, Amer M

    2016-01-01

    The clinical course of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) is characterized by wide variability reflecting the underlying genetic and biological heterogeneity of the disease. Accurate prediction of outcomes for individual patients is an integral part of the evidence-based risk/benefit calculations that are necessary for tailoring the aggressiveness of therapeutic interventions. While several prognostication tools have been developed and validated for risk stratification, each of these systems has limitations. The recent progress in genomic sequencing techniques has led to discoveries of recurrent molecular mutations in MDS patients with independent impact on relevant clinical outcomes. Reliable assays of these mutations have already entered the clinic and efforts are currently ongoing to formally incorporate mutational analysis into the existing clinicopathologic risk stratification tools. Additionally, mutational analysis holds promise for going beyond prognostication to therapeutic selection and individualized treatment-specific prediction of outcomes; abilities that would revolutionize MDS patient care. Despite these exciting developments, the best way of incorporating molecular testing for use in prognostication and prediction of outcomes in clinical practice remains undefined and further research is warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Incorporating Stroke and Bleeding Risk Stratification Tools into Atrial Fibrillation Management Making Sense of the Alphabet Soup.

    PubMed

    Deering, Thomas F

    2017-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia managed by many physicians in a variety of clinical settings. One of the most important clinical decisions related to effective AF management centers upon the need to perform accurate thromboembolic risk stratification followed by effective management decisions that align with established guidelines. This manuscript will review the present state of the art and provide guidance to physicians to enhance patient outcomes.

  17. External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

    PubMed

    Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p<0.001)/GBS = 0.810 (CI: 0.744-0.877; p->0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; p<0.001)], whereas only CRS achieved significance in identifying re-bleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

  18. New Methods for the Analysis of Heartbeat Behavior in Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Glass, Leon; Lerma, Claudia; Shrier, Alvin

    2011-01-01

    Developing better methods for risk stratification for tachyarrhythmic sudden cardiac remains a major challenge for physicians and scientists. Since the transition from sinus rhythm to ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation happens by different mechanisms in different people, it is unrealistic to think that a single measure will be adequate to provide a good index for risk stratification. We analyze the dynamical properties of ventricular premature complexes over 24 h in an effort to understand the underlying mechanisms of ventricular arrhythmias and to better understand the arrhythmias that occur in individual patients. Two dimensional density plots, called heartprints, correlate characteristic features of the dynamics of premature ventricular complexes and the sinus rate. Heartprints show distinctive characteristics in individual patients. Based on a better understanding of the natures of transitions from sinus rhythm to sudden cardiac and the mechanisms of arrhythmia prior to cardiac arrest, it should be possible to develop better methods for risk stratification. PMID:22144963

  19. Risk stratification, genomic data and the law.

    PubMed

    Hall, Alison; Finnegan, Thomas; Chowdhury, Susmita; Dent, Tom; Kroese, Mark; Burton, Hilary

    2018-02-22

    Risk prediction models have a key role in stratified disease prevention, and the incorporation of genomic data into these models promises more effective personalisation. Although the clinical utility of incorporating genomic data into risk prediction tools is increasingly compelling, at least for some applications and disease types, the legal and regulatory implications have not been examined and have been overshadowed by discussions about clinical and scientific utility and feasibility. We held a workshop to explore relevant legal and regulatory perspectives from four EU Member States: France, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. While we found no absolute prohibition on the use of such data in those tools, there are considerable challenges. Currently, these are modest and result from genomic data being classified as sensitive data under existing Data Protection regulation. However, these challenges will increase in the future following the implementation of EU Regulations on data protection which take effect in 2018, and reforms to the governance of the manufacture, development and use of in vitro diagnostic devices to be implemented in 2022. Collectively these will increase the regulatory burden placed on these products as risk stratification tools will be brought within the scope of these new Regulations. The failure to respond to the challenges posed by the use of genomic data in disease risk stratification tools could therefore prove costly to those developing and using such tools.

  20. Atherothrombotic Risk Stratification and Ezetimibe for Secondary Prevention.

    PubMed

    Bohula, Erin A; Morrow, David A; Giugliano, Robert P; Blazing, Michael A; He, Ping; Park, Jeong-Gun; Murphy, Sabina A; White, Jennifer A; Kesaniemi, Y Antero; Pedersen, Terje R; Brady, Adrian J; Mitchel, Yale; Cannon, Christopher P; Braunwald, Eugene

    2017-02-28

    Ezetimibe improves cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in patients stabilized after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) when added to statin therapy. After ACS, patients vary considerably in their risk for recurrent CV events. This study tested the hypothesis that atherothrombotic risk stratification may be useful to identify post-ACS patients who have the greatest potential for benefit from the addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy. The TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS 2°P) is a simple 9-point risk stratification tool, previously developed in a large population with atherothrombosis to predict CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), and ischemic stroke (CV death/MI/ischemic cerebrovascular accident [iCVA]). The current study applied this tool prospectively to 17,717 post-ACS patients randomized either to ezetimibe and simvastatin or to placebo and simvastatin in IMPROVE-IT (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial). Treatment efficacy was assessed by baseline risk for CV death/MI/iCVA, the IMPROVE-IT composite endpoints (CE), and individual component endpoints at 7 years. All 9 clinical variables in the TRS 2°P were independent risk indicators for CV death/MI/iCVA (p < 0.001). The integer-based scheme showed a strong graded relationship with the rate of CV death/MI/iCVA, the trial CE, and the individual components (p trend <0.0001 for each). High-risk patients (n = 4,393; 25%), defined by ≥3 risk indicators, had a 6.3% (95% confidence interval: 2.9% to 9.7%) absolute risk reduction in CV death/MI/iCVA at 7 years with ezetimibe/simvastatin, thus translating to a number-needed-to-treat of 16. Intermediate-risk patients (2 risk indicators; n = 5,292; 30%) had a 2.2% (95% confidence interval: -0.3% to 4.6%) absolute risk reduction. Low-risk patients (0 to 1 risk indicators; n = 8,032; 45%) did not appear to derive benefit from the addition of ezetimibe (p interaction = 0.010). Similar

  1. Risk stratification for sudden death in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Cadrin-Tourigny, Julia; Tadros, Rafik; Talajic, Mario; Rivard, Lena; Abadir, Sylvia; Khairy, Paul

    2015-06-01

    Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC) is an uncommon but increasingly recognized inherited cardiomyopathy that is associated with malignant ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death, particularly in young individuals. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is widely regarded as the only treatment modality with evidence to support improved survival in patients with ARVC and secondary prevention indications. In contrast, there is no universally accepted risk stratification scheme to guide ICD therapy for primary prevention against sudden cardiac death. Potential benefits must be weighed against the considerable risks of complications and inappropriate shocks in this young patient population. This article tackles the challenges of risk stratification for sudden cardiac death in ARVC and critically appraises available evidence for various proposed risk factors. The authors' over-arching objective is to provide the clinician with evidence-based guidance to inform decisions regarding the selection of appropriate candidates with ARVC for ICD therapy.

  2. Risk stratification in myelodysplastic syndromes: is there a role for gene expression profiling?

    PubMed

    Zeidan, Amer M; Prebet, Thomas; Saad Aldin, Ehab; Gore, Steven David

    2014-04-01

    Evaluation of: Pellagatti A, Benner A, Mills KI et al. Identification of gene expression-based prognostic markers in the hematopoietic stem cells of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. J. Clin. Oncol. 31(28), 3557-3564 (2013). Patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) exhibit wide heterogeneity in clinical outcomes making accurate risk-stratification an integral part of the risk-adaptive management paradigm. Current prognostic schemes for MDS rely on clinicopathological parameters. Despite the increasing knowledge of the genetic landscape of MDS and the prognostic impact of many newly discovered molecular aberrations, none to date has been incorporated formally into the major risk models. Efforts are ongoing to use data generated from genome-wide high-throughput techniques to improve the 'individualized' outcome prediction for patients. We here discuss an important paper in which gene expression profiling (GEP) technology was applied to marrow CD34(+) cells from 125 MDS patients to generate and validate a standardized GEP-based prognostic signature.

  3. Risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases: Opportunities for clinicians and trialists

    PubMed Central

    Trivedi, Palak J.; Corpechot, Christophe; Pares, Albert

    2015-01-01

    Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are infrequent autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases, that disproportionate to their incidence and prevalence, remain very important causes of morbidity and mortality for patients with liver disease. Mechanistic insights spanning genetic risks and biological pathways to liver injury and fibrosis have led to a renewed interest in developing therapies beyond ursodeoxycholic acid that are aimed at both slowing disease course and improving quality of life. International cohort studies have facilitated a much greater understanding of disease heterogeneity, and in so doing highlight the opportunity to provide patients with a more individualized assessment of their risk of progressive liver disease, based on clinical, laboratory, or imaging findings. This has led to a new approach to patient care that focuses on risk stratification (both high and low risk); and furthermore allows such stratification tools to help identify patient subgroups at greatest potential benefit from inclusion in clinical trials. In this article, we review the applicability and validity of risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver disease, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of current and emergent approaches. (Hepatology 2016;63:644–659) PMID:26290473

  4. Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-10-01

    SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Prostate cancer (PCA) is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous and the development of a molecular classification is...AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0739 TITLE: Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer PRINCIPAL...AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH

  5. Segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Voss, A; Fischer, C; Schroeder, R; Figulla, H R; Goernig, M

    2010-01-01

    The prognostic value of heart rate variability in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is limited and does not contribute to risk stratification although the dynamics of ventricular repolarization differs considerably between DCM patients and healthy subjects. Neither linear nor nonlinear methods of heart rate variability analysis could discriminate between patients at high and low risk for sudden cardiac death. The aim of this study was to analyze the suitability of the new developed segmented Poincaré plot analysis (SPPA) to enhance risk stratification in DCM. In contrast to the usual applied Poincaré plot analysis the SPPA retains nonlinear features from investigated beat-to-beat interval time series. Main features of SPPA are the rotation of cloud of points and their succeeded variability depended segmentation. Significant row and column probabilities were calculated from the segments and led to discrimination (up to p<0.005) between low and high risk in DCM patients. For the first time an index from Poincaré plot analysis of heart rate variability was able to contribute to risk stratification in patients suffering from DCM.

  6. A novel dual-marker expression panel for easy and accurate risk stratification of patients with gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Kanda, Mitsuro; Murotani, Kenta; Tanaka, Haruyoshi; Miwa, Takashi; Umeda, Shinichi; Tanaka, Chie; Kobayashi, Daisuke; Hayashi, Masamichi; Hattori, Norifumi; Suenaga, Masaya; Yamada, Suguru; Nakayama, Goro; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Kodera, Yasuhiro

    2018-05-07

    Development of specific biomarkers is necessary for individualized management of patients with gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to design a simple expression panel comprising novel molecular markers for precise risk stratification. Patients (n = 200) who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer were randomly assigned into learning and validation sets. Tissue mRNA expression levels of 15 candidate molecular markers were determined using quantitative PCR analysis. A dual-marker expression panel was created according to concordance index (C-index) values of overall survival for all 105 combinations of two markers in the learning set. The reproducibility and clinical significance of the dual-marker expression panel were evaluated in the validation set. The patient characteristics of the learning and validation sets were well balanced. The C-index values of combinations were significantly higher compared with those of single markers. The panel with the highest C-index (0.718) of the learning set comprised SYT8 and MAGED2, which clearly stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. The reproducibility of the panel was demonstrated in the validation set. High expression scores were significantly associated with larger tumor size, vascular invasion, lymph node metastasis, peritoneal metastasis, and advanced disease. The dual-marker expression panel provides a simple tool that clearly stratifies patients with gastric cancer into low-, intermediate-, and high risk after gastrectomy. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Preablation 131-I scans with SPECT/CT contribute to thyroid cancer risk stratification and 131-I therapy planning.

    PubMed

    Avram, Anca M; Esfandiari, Nazanene H; Wong, Ka Kit

    2015-05-01

    The use of preablation diagnostic radioiodine scans for risk stratification and radioiodine therapy planning for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) remains controversial. The objective was to assess the contribution of preablation diagnostic 131-I scans with SPECT/CT (Dx 131-I scan) to (1) the risk stratification and (2) the postoperative management of DTC. The study was designed as a prospective sequential patient series. The study was conducted at a University hospital. Three hundred twenty patients (pts) with DTC (219F; 101M, mean age 47.3 ± 16.4 y, range 10-90) were studied. Using clinical and histopathology information an endocrinologist performed risk stratification and determined postoperative management with respect to radioiodine therapy (RAI) planning. The decision to withhold or to administer RAI, and the recommended low, medium or high therapeutic 131-I activity were recorded. Dx 131-I scans were performed and interpreted by two nuclear medicine physicians as showing thyroid remnant, cervical nodal, or distant metastases. The endocrinologist then reperformed risk stratification and reformulated management after consideration of Dx 131-I scans and stimulated thyroglobulin (Tg) information. Main outcome measures were changes in risk stratification and management after Dx 131-I scans. Detection of unsuspected nodal and distant metastases and elevated stimulated Tg levels resulted in a change in the estimated risk of recurrence in 15% of patients, and management in 31% of patients, as compared to initial risk stratification and management based on histopathology alone. Both imaging data and stimulated thyroglobulin levels acquired at the time of Dx 131-I scans are consequential for 131-I therapy planning, providing information that changes risk stratification in 15% of patients as compared to recurrence risk estimation based on histopathology alone. Dx 131-I scans contribute to risk stratification by defining residual nodal and distant metastatic disease

  8. Superiority of delayed risk stratification in differentiated thyroid cancer after total thyroidectomy and radioactive iodine ablation.

    PubMed

    Hong, Chae Moon; Lee, Won Kee; Jeong, Shin Young; Lee, Sang-Woo; Ahn, Byeong-Cheol; Lee, Jaetae

    2014-11-01

    The aim of this study was to validate the effectiveness of delayed risk stratification (DRS) in predicting structural progression and compare the predictive value of American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification with that of DRS in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). A total of 398 patients with DTC who underwent surgery followed by radioactive iodine ablation were enrolled. Patients were categorized as having excellent response, acceptable response, biochemical incomplete response, or structural incomplete response at 8-15 months' evaluation after radioactive iodine ablation for DRS. Effectiveness of DRS was evaluated according to structural progression-free survival (PFS; median follow-up, 10.7 years). A total of 229 patients (57.5%) were classified as having excellent response, 78 (19.6%) as having acceptable response, 62 (15.6%) as having biochemical incomplete response, and 29 patients (7.3%) as having structural incomplete response. After DRS, 60.2% of intermediate-risk patients and 20.5% of high-risk patients were shifted to the excellent response category. Sixty-nine patients (17.3%) showed structural progression. DRS showed statistical difference in PFS (hazard ratio, 4.268; 95% confidence interval, 3.258-5.477; P<0.001). In multivariate analysis of ATA risk stratification and DRS, DRS was significantly associated with PFS (hazard ratio, 4.383; 95% confidence interval, 3.250-5.912; P<0.001), but ATA risk stratification was not. There was no significant difference in deviances between the use of DRS alone and the use of both DRS and ATA risk stratification (χ=0.103, d.f.=1, P=0.748). DRS is superior to ATA risk stratification in predicting structural disease progression for DTC patients.

  9. Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

    2013-01-01

    In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period.

  10. Recommendations on breast cancer screening and prevention in the context of implementing risk stratification: impending changes to current policies

    PubMed Central

    Gagnon, J.; Lévesque, E.; Borduas, F.; Chiquette, J.; Diorio, C.; Duchesne, N.; Dumais, M.; Eloy, L.; Foulkes, W.; Gervais, N.; Lalonde, L.; L’Espérance, B.; Meterissian, S.; Provencher, L.; Richard, J.; Savard, C.; Trop, I.; Wong, N.; Knoppers, B.M.; Simard, J.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, risk stratification has sparked interest as an innovative approach to disease screening and prevention. The approach effectively personalizes individual risk, opening the way to screening and prevention interventions that are adapted to subpopulations. The international perspective project, which is developing risk stratification for breast cancer, aims to support the integration of its screening approach into clinical practice through comprehensive tool-building. Policies and guidelines for risk stratification—unlike those for population screening programs, which are currently well regulated—are still under development. Indeed, the development of guidelines for risk stratification reflects the translational aspects of perspective. Here, we describe the risk stratification process that was devised in the context of perspective, and we then explain the consensus-based method used to develop recommendations for breast cancer screening and prevention in a risk-stratification approach. Lastly, we discuss how the recommendations might affect current screening policies. PMID:28050152

  11. Risk Stratification Methods and Provision of Care Management Services in Comprehensive Primary Care Initiative Practices.

    PubMed

    Reddy, Ashok; Sessums, Laura; Gupta, Reshma; Jin, Janel; Day, Tim; Finke, Bruce; Bitton, Asaf

    2017-09-01

    Risk-stratified care management is essential to improving population health in primary care settings, but evidence is limited on the type of risk stratification method and its association with care management services. We describe risk stratification patterns and association with care management services for primary care practices in the Comprehensive Primary Care (CPC) initiative. We undertook a qualitative approach to categorize risk stratification methods being used by CPC practices and tested whether these stratification methods were associated with delivery of care management services. CPC practices reported using 4 primary methods to stratify risk for their patient populations: a practice-developed algorithm (n = 215), the American Academy of Family Physicians' clinical algorithm (n = 155), payer claims and electronic health records (n = 62), and clinical intuition (n = 52). CPC practices using practice-developed algorithm identified the most number of high-risk patients per primary care physician (282 patients, P = .006). CPC practices using clinical intuition had the most high-risk patients in care management and a greater proportion of high-risk patients receiving care management per primary care physician (91 patients and 48%, P =.036 and P =.128, respectively). CPC practices used 4 primary methods to identify high-risk patients. Although practices that developed their own algorithm identified the greatest number of high-risk patients, practices that used clinical intuition connected the greatest proportion of patients to care management services. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

  12. Role of Immune Microenvironmental Factors for Improving the IPI-related Risk Stratification of Aggressive B Cell Lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Gong, Yi; Chen, Rui; Zhang, Xi; Zou, Zhong Min; Chen, Xing Hua

    2017-07-01

    To investigate the risk stratification of aggressive B cell lymphoma using the immune microenvironment and clinical factors. A total of 127 patients with aggressive B cell lymphoma between 2014 and 2015 were enrolled in this study. CD4, Foxp3, CD8, CD68, CD163, PD-1, and PD-L1 expression levels were evaluated in paraffin-embedded lymphoma tissues to identify their roles in the risk stratification. Eleven factors were identified for further evaluation using analysis of variance, chi-square, and multinomial logistic regression analysis. Significant differences in 11 factors (age, Ann Arbor stage, B symptom, ECOG performance status, infiltrating CD8+ T cells, PD-L1 expression, absolute blood monocyte count, serum lactate dehydrogenase, serum iron, serum albumin, and serum β2-microglobulin) were observed among patient groups stratified by at least two risk stratification methods [International Prognostic Index (IPI), revised IPI, and NCCN-IPI models] (P < 0.05). Concordance rates were high (81.4%-100.0%) when these factors were used for the risk stratification. No difference in the risk stratification results was observed with or without the Ann Arbor stage data. We developed a convenient and inexpensive tool for use in risk stratification of aggressive B cell lymphomas, although further studies on the role of immune microenvironmental factors are needed. Copyright © 2017 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk stratification in secondary cardiovascular prevention.

    PubMed

    Lazzeroni, Davide; Coruzzi, Paolo

    2018-02-19

    Worldwide, more than 7 million people experience acute myocardial infarction (AMI) every year (1), and although substantial reduction in mortality has been obtained in recent decades, one-year mortality rates are still in the range of 10%. Among patients who survive AMI, 20% suffer a second cardiovascular event in the first year and approximately 50% of major coronary events occur in those with a previous hospital discharge diagnosis of AMI (2). Despite the evidence that lifestyle changes and risk factors management strongly improve long-term prognosis, preventive care post-AMI remains sub-optimal. Cross-sectional data from the serially conducted EUROASPIRE surveys in patients with established ischemic heart disease (IHD) and people at high cardiovascular risk have demonstrated a high prevalence of unhealthy lifestyle, modifiable risk factors and inadequate use of drug therapies to achieve blood pressure and lipid goals (3). Secondary prevention programmes, defined as the level of preventive care focusing on early risk stratification, are highly recommended in all IHD patients, to restore quality of life, maintain or improve functional capacity and prevent recurrence.

  14. Risk Stratification and Shared Decision Making for Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    PubMed

    Schroy, Paul C; Duhovic, Emir; Chen, Clara A; Heeren, Timothy C; Lopez, William; Apodaca, Danielle L; Wong, John B

    2016-05-01

    Eliciting patient preferences within the context of shared decision making has been advocated for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet providers often fail to comply with patient preferences that differ from their own. To determine whether risk stratification for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) influences provider willingness to comply with patient preferences when selecting a desired CRC screening option. Randomized controlled trial. Asymptomatic, average-risk patients due for CRC screening in an urban safety net health care setting. Patients were randomized 1:1 to a decision aid alone (n= 168) or decision aid plus risk assessment (n= 173) arm between September 2012 and September 2014. The primary outcome was concordance between patient preference and test ordered; secondary outcomes included patient satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, test completion rates, and provider satisfaction. Although providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in selecting an appropriate screening test for their average-risk patients, no significant differences in concordance were observed between the decision aid alone and decision aid plus risk assessment groups (88.1% v. 85.0%,P= 0.40) or high- and low-risk groups (84.5% v. 87.1%,P= 0.51). Concordance was highest for colonoscopy and relatively low for tests other than colonoscopy, regardless of study arm or risk group. Failure to comply with patient preferences was negatively associated with satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, and test completion rates. Single-institution setting; lack of provider education about the utility of risk stratification into their decision making. Providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in their decision making but often failed to comply with patient preferences for tests other than colonoscopy, even among those deemed to be at low risk of ACN. © The Author(s) 2016.

  15. Blood pressure load does not add to ambulatory blood pressure level for cardiovascular risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Li, Yan; Thijs, Lutgarde; Boggia, José; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W; Kikuya, Masahiro; Björklund-Bodegård, Kristina; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Dolan, Eamon; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Malyutina, Sofia; Casiglia, Edoardo; Nikitin, Yuri; Lind, Lars; Sandoya, Edgardo; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Filipovsky, Jan; Imai, Yutaka; Ibsen, Hans; O'Brien, Eoin; Wang, Jiguang; Staessen, Jan A

    2014-05-01

    Experts proposed blood pressure (BP) load derived from 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings as a more accurate predictor of outcome than level, in particular in normotensive people. We analyzed 8711 subjects (mean age, 54.8 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations. We expressed BP load as percentage (%) of systolic/diastolic readings ≥135/≥85 mm Hg and ≥120/≥70 mm Hg during day and night, respectively, or as the area under the BP curve (mm Hg×h) using the same ceiling values. During a period of 10.7 years (median), 1284 participants died and 1109 experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular end point. In multivariable-adjusted models, the risk of cardiovascular complications gradually increased across deciles of BP level and load (P<0.001), but BP load did not substantially refine risk prediction based on 24-hour systolic or diastolic BP level (generalized R(2) statistic ≤0.294%; net reclassification improvement ≤0.28%; integrated discrimination improvement ≤0.001%). Systolic/diastolic BP load of 40.0/42.3% or 91.8/73.6 mm Hg×h conferred a 10-year risk of a composite cardiovascular end point similar to a 24-hour systolic/diastolic BP of 130/80 mm Hg. In analyses dichotomized according to these thresholds, increased BP load did not refine risk prediction in the whole study population (R(2)≤0.051) or in untreated participants with 24-hour ambulatory normotension (R(2)≤0.034). In conclusion, BP load does not improve risk stratification based on 24-hour BP level. This also applies to subjects with normal 24-hour BP for whom BP load was proposed to be particularly useful in risk stratification.

  16. Noninvasive risk stratification for sudden death in asymptomatic patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome.

    PubMed

    Novella, John; DeBiasi, Ralph M; Coplan, Neil L; Suri, Ranji; Keller, Seth

    2014-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) as the first clinical manifestation of Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome is a well-documented, although rare occurrence. The incidence of SCD in patients with WPW ranges from 0% to 0.39% annually. Controversy exists regarding risk stratification for patients with preexcitation on surface electrocardiogram (ECG), particularly in those who are asymptomatic. This article focuses on the role of risk stratification using exercise and pharmacologic testing in patients with WPW pattern on ECG.

  17. Clinical Risk Stratification for Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators

    PubMed Central

    Hardy, Judy; Yee, Raymond; Healey, Jeffrey S.; Birnie, David; Simpson, Christopher S.; Crystal, Eugene; Mangat, Iqwal; Nanthakumar, Kumaraswamy; Wang, Xuesong; Krahn, Andrew D.; Dorian, Paul; Austin, Peter C.; Tu, Jack V.

    2015-01-01

    Background— A conceptualized model may be useful for understanding risk stratification of primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators considering the competing risks of appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator shock versus mortality. Methods and Results— In a prospective, multicenter, population-based cohort with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% referred for primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator, we developed dual risk stratification models to determine the competing risks of appropriate defibrillator shock versus mortality using a Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model. Among 7020 patients referred, 3445 underwent defibrillator implant (79.7% men, median, 66 years [25th, 75th: 58–73]). During 5918 person-years of follow-up, appropriate shock occurred in 204 patients (3.6 shocks/100 person-years) and 292 died (4.9 deaths/100 person-years). Competing risk predictors of appropriate shock included nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, atrial fibrillation, serum creatinine concentration, digoxin or amiodarone use, and QRS duration near 130-ms peak. One-year cumulative incidence of appropriate shock was 0.9% in the lowest risk category, and 1.7%, 2.5%, 4.9%, and 9.3% in low, intermediate, high, and highest risk groups, respectively. Hazard ratios for appropriate shock ranged from 4.04 to 7.79 in the highest 3 deciles (all P≤0.001 versus lowest risk). Cumulative incidence of 1-year death was 0.6%, 1.9%, 3.3%, 6.2%, and 17.7% in lowest, low, intermediate, high, and highest risk groups, respectively. Mortality hazard ratios ranged from 11.48 to 36.22 in the highest 3 deciles (all P<0.001 versus lowest risk). Conclusions— Simultaneous estimation of risks of appropriate shock and mortality can be performed using clinical variables, providing a potential framework for identification of patients who are unlikely to benefit from prophylactic implantable cardioverter defibrillator. PMID:26224792

  18. Utility of the exercise electrocardiogram testing in sudden cardiac death risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Refaat, Marwan M; Hotait, Mostafa; Tseng, Zian H

    2014-07-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a major public health problem. Current established criteria identifying those at risk of sudden arrhythmic death, and likely to benefit from implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs), are neither sensitive nor specific. Exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) testing was traditionally used for information concerning patients' symptoms, exercise capacity, cardiovascular function, myocardial ischemia detection, and hemodynamic responses during activity in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. We conducted a systematic review of MEDLINE on the utility of exercise ECG testing in SCD risk stratification. Exercise testing can unmask suspected primary electrical diseases in certain patients (catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia or concealed long QT syndrome) and can be effectively utilized to risk stratify patients at an increased (such as early repolarization syndrome and Brugada syndrome) or decreased risk of SCD, such as the loss of preexcitation on exercise testing in asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Exercise ECG testing helps in SCD risk stratification in patients with and without arrhythmogenic hereditary syndromes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Percentage of Positive Biopsy Cores: A Better Risk Stratification Model for Prostate Cancer?

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Huang Jiayi; Vicini, Frank A.; Williams, Scott G.

    2012-07-15

    Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of the percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC) and perineural invasion in predicting the clinical outcomes after radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer and to explore the possibilities to improve on existing risk-stratification models. Methods and Materials: Between 1993 and 2004, 1,056 patients with clinical Stage T1c-T3N0M0 prostate cancer, who had four or more biopsy cores sampled and complete biopsy core data available, were treated with external beam RT, with or without a high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost at William Beaumont Hospital. The median follow-up was 7.6 years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed with PPC, Gleasonmore » score, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, T stage, PNI, radiation dose, androgen deprivation, age, prostate-specific antigen frequency, and follow-up duration. A new risk stratification (PPC classification) was empirically devised to incorporate PPC and replace the T stage. Results: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the PPC was an independent predictor of distant metastasis, cause-specific survival, and overall survival (all p < .05). A PPC >50% was associated with significantly greater distant metastasis (hazard ratio, 4.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-8.61), and its independent predictive value remained significant with or without androgen deprivation therapy (all p < .05). In contrast, PNI and T stage were only predictive for locoregional recurrence. Combining the PPC ({<=}50% vs. >50%) with National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk stratification demonstrated added prognostic value of distant metastasis for the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio, 5.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-16.6) and high-risk (hazard ratio, 4.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-11.3) groups, regardless of the use of androgen deprivation and high-dose RT (all p < .05). The proposed PPC classification appears to provide improved stratification of the clinical outcomes relative to the

  20. The Auckland Cataract Study: Assessing Preoperative Risk Stratification Systems for Phacoemulsification Surgery in a Teaching Hospital.

    PubMed

    Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

    2016-11-01

    To evaluate 2 preoperative risk stratification systems for assessing the risk of complications in phacoemulsification cataract surgery, performed by residents, fellows, and attending physicians in a public teaching hospital. Cohort study. One observer assessed the clinical data of 500 consecutive cases, prior to phacoemulsification cataract surgery performed between April and June 2015 at Greenlane Clinical Centre, Auckland, New Zealand. Preoperatively 2 risk scores were calculated for each case using the Muhtaseb and Buckinghamshire risk stratification systems. Complications, intraoperative and postoperative, and visual outcomes were analyzed in relation to these risk scores. Intraoperative complication rates increased with higher risk scores using the Muhtaseb or Buckinghamshire stratification system (P = .001 and P = .003, respectively, n = 500). The odds ratios for residents and fellows were not significantly different from attending physicians after case-mix adjustment according to risk scores (P > .05). Postoperative complication rates increased with higher Buckinghamshire risk scores but not with Muhtaseb scores (P = .014 and P = .094, respectively, n = 476). Postoperative corrected-distance visual acuity was poorer with higher risk scores (P < .001 for both, n = 476). This study confirms that the risk of intraoperative complications increases with higher preoperative risk scores. Furthermore, higher risk scores correlate with poorer postoperative visual acuity and the Buckinghamshire risk score also correlates with postoperative complications. Therefore, preoperative assessment using such risk stratification systems could assist individual informed consent, preoperative surgical planning, safe allocation of cases to trainees, and more meaningful analyses of outcomes for individual surgeons and institutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Brugada syndrome: diagnosis, risk stratification, and management.

    PubMed

    Adler, Arnon

    2016-01-01

    Asymptomatic patients with Brugada syndrome (BrS) have a small, but not trivial, risk of cardiac events. Their risk stratification and its impact on their management are controversial. The review focuses on the clinical aspects of BrS with special emphasis on the asymptomatic patient. Emerging data suggest that drug and fever-induced type I Brugada patterns are more common than previously appreciated. Although preliminary, these data may imply that asymptomatic patients with induced Brugada pattern are at an even lower risk than currently estimated.The latest data regarding induced ventricular arrhythmias during electrophysiological studies support its use as an indication for an implantable cardioverter defibrillator; however, this issue remains highly controversial.Several new risk markers, such as presence of the Brugada pattern in infero-lateral leads or the concomitant finding of an early repolarization pattern, have recently been proposed. Most asymptomatic BrS patients are at low risk of cardiac events. The presence of new risk markers in this population may prompt consideration of primary prevention measures; however, data supporting this approach are still limited.

  2. Mortality risk stratification in severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients.

    PubMed

    Beliaev, A M; Marshall, R J; Smith, W; Windsor, J A

    2012-03-01

    The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to identify early risk factors of mortality and develop a mortality risk stratification instrument for severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. It has been shown that Jehovah's Witness patients with the Auckland Anaemia Mortality Risk Score (Auckland AMRS) of 0 to 3 had 4% mortality, Auckland AMRS 4 to 5 32%, Auckland AMRS 6 to 7 50% and Auckland AMRS 8 and above 83%. It is concluded that the Auckland AMRS predicts mortality of severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. © 2012 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2012 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  3. Risk stratification of thyroid nodules on ultrasonography with the French TI-RADS: description and reflections

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The widespread use of ultrasonography places it in a key position for use in the risk stratification of thyroid nodules. The French proposal is a five-tier system, our version of a thyroid imaging reporting and database system (TI-RADS), which includes a standardized vocabulary and report and a quantified risk assessment. It allows the selection of the nodules that should be referred for fine-needle aspiration biopsies. Effort should be directed towards merging the different risk stratification systems utilized around the world and testing this unified system with multi-center studies. PMID:26324117

  4. State of the Art: Blood Biomarkers for Risk Stratification in Patients with Stable Ischemic Heart Disease.

    PubMed

    Omland, Torbjørn; White, Harvey D

    2017-01-01

    Multiple circulating biomarkers have been associated with the incidence of cardiovascular events and proposed as potential tools for risk stratification in stable ischemic heart disease (IHD), yet current guidelines do not make any firm recommendations concerning the use of biomarkers for risk stratification in this setting. This state-of-the-art review provides an overview of biomarkers for risk stratification in stable IHD. Circulating biomarkers associated with the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with stable IHD reflect different pathophysiological processes, including myocardial injury, myocardial stress and remodeling, metabolic status, vascular inflammation, and oxidative stress. Compared to the primary prevention setting, biomarkers reflecting end-organ damage and future risk of heart failure development and cardiovascular death may play more important roles in the stable IHD setting. Accordingly, biomarkers that reflect chronic, low-grade myocardial injury, and stress, i.e., high-sensitivity cardiac troponins and natriuretic peptides, provide graded and incremental prognostic information to conventional risk markers. In contrast, in stable IHD patients the prognostic value of traditional metabolic biomarkers, including serum lipids, is limited. Among several novel biomarkers, growth-differentiation factor-15 may provide the most robust prognostic information, whereas most inflammatory markers provide limited incremental prognostic information to risk factor models that include conventional risk factors, natriuretic peptides, and high-sensitivity troponins. Circulating biomarkers hold promise as useful tools for risk stratification in stable IHD, but their future incorporation into clinically useful risk scores will depend on prospective, rigorously performed clinical trials that document enhanced risk prediction. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  5. Coronary heart disease risk stratification: pitfalls and possibilities.

    PubMed

    Negi, Smita; Nambi, Vijay

    Atherosclerosis of the coronary arteries, or coronary heart disease (CHD), is the most common cause of mortality in U.S. adults. The pathobiology of atherosclerosis and its complications is a continuum. At one end of the spectrum are young individuals without atherosclerotic disease who have not yet been exposed to lifestyle or other risk factors, and at the other end are patients with manifest atherosclerosis - myocardial infarction, stroke, and disabling peripheral arterial disease - where risk of recurrent disease and death is driven by the same factors initially responsible for the emergence of disease. However, it is clear that while risk factors are important in the development of CHD, not everyone with risk factors develops the disease and not everyone with CHD has risk factors. Furthermore, even similar degrees of exposure to a risk factor leads to disease in some individuals and not in others. Risk prediction, which is crucial in predicting and hence preventing disease, therefore becomes very challenging. In this article we review the currently available risk stratification tools for predicting CHD risk and discuss potential ways to improve risk prediction.

  6. Validating a Local Failure Risk Stratification for Use in Prospective Studies of Adjuvant Radiation Therapy for Bladder Cancer

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Baumann, Brian C.; He, Jiwei; Hwang, Wei-Ting

    Purpose: To inform prospective trials of adjuvant radiation therapy (adj-RT) for bladder cancer after radical cystectomy, a locoregional failure (LF) risk stratification was proposed. This stratification was developed and validated using surgical databases that may not reflect the outcomes expected in prospective trials. Our purpose was to assess sources of bias that may affect the stratification model's validity or alter the LF risk estimates for each subgroup: time bias due to evolving surgical techniques; trial accrual bias due to inclusion of patients who would be ineligible for adj-RT trials because of early disease progression, death, or loss to follow-up shortlymore » after cystectomy; bias due to different statistical methods to estimate LF; and subgrouping bias due to different definitions of the LF subgroups. Methods and Materials: The LF risk stratification was developed using a single-institution cohort (n=442, 1990-2008) and the multi-institutional SWOG 8710 cohort (n=264, 1987-1998) treated with radical cystectomy with or without chemotherapy. We evaluated the sensitivity of the stratification to sources of bias using Fine-Gray regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. Results: Year of radical cystectomy was not associated with LF risk on univariate or multivariate analysis after controlling for risk group. By use of more stringent inclusion criteria, 26 SWOG patients (10%) and 60 patients from the single-institution cohort (14%) were excluded. Analysis of the remaining patients confirmed 3 subgroups with significantly different LF risks with 3-year rates of 7%, 17%, and 36%, respectively (P<.01), nearly identical to the rates without correcting for trial accrual bias. Kaplan-Meier techniques estimated higher subgroup LF rates than competing risk analysis. The subgroup definitions used in the NRG-GU001 adj-RT trial were validated. Conclusions: These sources of bias did not invalidate the LF risk stratification or substantially change the model's LF

  7. SIOP‐PODC adapted risk stratification and treatment guidelines: Recommendations for neuroblastoma in low‐ and middle‐income settings

    PubMed Central

    Howard, Scott C.; Chantada, Guillermo; Israels, Trijn; Khattab, Mohammed; Alcasabas, Patricia; Lam, Catherine G.; Faulkner, Lawrence; Park, Julie R.; London, Wendy B.; Matthay, Katherine K.

    2015-01-01

    Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial solid tumor in childhood in high‐income countries (HIC), where consistent treatment approaches based on clinical and tumor biological risk stratification have steadily improved outcomes. However, in low‐ and middle‐ income countries (LMIC), suboptimal diagnosis, risk stratification, and treatment may occur due to limited resources and unavailable infrastructure. The clinical practice guidelines outlined in this manuscript are based on current published evidence and expert opinions. Standard risk stratification and treatment explicitly adapted to graduated resource settings can improve outcomes for children with neuroblastoma by reducing preventable toxic death and relapse. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2015;62:1305–1316. © 2015 The Authors. Pediatric Blood & Cancer, published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:25810263

  8. Adaptation of a Biomarker-Based Sepsis Mortality Risk Stratification Tool for Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

    PubMed

    Yehya, Nadir; Wong, Hector R

    2018-01-01

    The original Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and revised (Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II) biomarker-based risk prediction models have demonstrated utility for estimating baseline 28-day mortality risk in pediatric sepsis. Given the paucity of prediction tools in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, and given the overlapping pathophysiology between sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome, we tested the utility of Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II for mortality prediction in a cohort of pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, with an a priori plan to revise the model if these existing models performed poorly. Prospective observational cohort study. University affiliated PICU. Mechanically ventilated children with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Blood collection within 24 hours of acute respiratory distress syndrome onset and biomarker measurements. In 152 children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model performed poorly and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II performed modestly (areas under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.61 and 0.76, respectively). Therefore, we randomly selected 80% of the cohort (n = 122) to rederive a risk prediction model for pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. We used classification and regression tree methodology, considering the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model biomarkers in addition to variables relevant to acute respiratory distress syndrome. The final model was comprised of three biomarkers and age, and more accurately estimated baseline mortality risk (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.85, p < 0.001 and p = 0.053 compared with Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II, respectively). The model was tested in the remaining 20% of subjects (n = 30) and demonstrated similar test characteristics. A validated, biomarker

  9. Prodromal Parkinsonism and Neurodegenerative Risk Stratification in REM Sleep Behavior Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Lawton, Michael; Rolinski, Michal; Evetts, Samuel; Baig, Fahd; Ruffmann, Claudio; Gornall, Aimie; Klein, Johannes C; Lo, Christine; Dennis, Gary; Bandmann, Oliver; Quinnell, Timothy; Zaiwalla, Zenobia; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Hu, Michele TM

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Objectives Rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD) is the most specific marker of prodromal alpha-synucleinopathies. We sought to delineate the baseline clinical characteristics of RBD and evaluate risk stratification models. Methods Clinical assessments were performed in 171 RBD, 296 control, and 119 untreated Parkinson’s (PD) participants. Putative risk measures were assessed as predictors of prodromal neurodegeneration, and Movement Disorders Society (MDS) criteria for prodromal PD were applied. Participants were screened for common leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2)/glucocerebrosidase gene (GBA) gene mutations. Results Compared to controls, participants with RBD had higher rates of solvent exposure, head injury, smoking, obesity, and antidepressant use. GBA mutations were more common in RBD, but no LRRK2 mutations were found. RBD participants performed significantly worse than controls on Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS)-III, timed “get-up-and-go”, Flamingo test, Sniffin Sticks, and cognitive tests and had worse measures of constipation, quality of life (QOL), and orthostatic hypotension. For all these measures except UPDRS-III, RBD and PD participants were equally impaired. Depression, anxiety, and apathy were worse in RBD compared to PD participants. Stratification of people with RBD according to antidepressant use, obesity, and age altered the odds ratio (OR) of hyposmia compared to controls from 3.4 to 45.5. 74% (95% confidence interval [CI] 66%, 80%) of RBD participants met the MDS criteria for probable prodromal Parkinson’s compared to 0.3% (95% CI 0.009%, 2%) of controls. Conclusions RBD are impaired across a range of clinical measures consistent with prodromal PD and suggestive of a more severe nonmotor subtype. Clinical risk stratification has the potential to select higher risk patients for neuroprotective interventions. PMID:28472425

  10. Urothelial cancer of the upper urinary tract: emerging biomarkers and integrative models for risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Mathieu, Romain; Vartolomei, Mihai D; Mbeutcha, Aurélie; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Briganti, Alberto; Roupret, Morgan; Shariat, Shahrokh F

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this review was to provide an overview of current biomarkers and risk stratification models in urothelial cancer of the upper urinary tract (UTUC). A non-systematic Medline/PubMed literature search was performed using the terms "biomarkers", "preoperative models", "postoperative models", "risk stratification", together with "upper tract urothelial carcinoma". Original articles published between January 2003 and August 2015 were included based on their clinical relevance. Additional references were collected by cross referencing the bibliography of the selected articles. Various promising predictive and prognostic biomarkers have been identified in UTUC thanks to the increasing knowledge of the different biological pathways involved in UTUC tumorigenesis. These biomarkers may help identify tumors with aggressive biology and worse outcomes. Current tools aim at predicting muscle invasive or non-organ confined disease, renal failure after radical nephroureterectomy and survival outcomes. These models are still mainly based on imaging and clinicopathological feature and none has integrated biomarkers. Risk stratification in UTUC is still suboptimal, especially in the preoperative setting due to current limitations in staging and grading. Identification of novel biomarkers and external validation of current prognostic models may help improve risk stratification to allow evidence-based counselling for kidney-sparing approaches, perioperative chemotherapy and/or risk-based surveillance. Despite growing understanding of the biology underlying UTUC, management of this disease remains difficult due to the lack of validated biomarkers and the limitations of current predictive and prognostic tools. Further efforts and collaborations are necessaryry to allow their integration in daily practice.

  11. ETHNOPRED: a novel machine learning method for accurate continental and sub-continental ancestry identification and population stratification correction

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Population stratification is a systematic difference in allele frequencies between subpopulations. This can lead to spurious association findings in the case–control genome wide association studies (GWASs) used to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with disease-linked phenotypes. Methods such as self-declared ancestry, ancestry informative markers, genomic control, structured association, and principal component analysis are used to assess and correct population stratification but each has limitations. We provide an alternative technique to address population stratification. Results We propose a novel machine learning method, ETHNOPRED, which uses the genotype and ethnicity data from the HapMap project to learn ensembles of disjoint decision trees, capable of accurately predicting an individual’s continental and sub-continental ancestry. To predict an individual’s continental ancestry, ETHNOPRED produced an ensemble of 3 decision trees involving a total of 10 SNPs, with 10-fold cross validation accuracy of 100% using HapMap II dataset. We extended this model to involve 29 disjoint decision trees over 149 SNPs, and showed that this ensemble has an accuracy of ≥ 99.9%, even if some of those 149 SNP values were missing. On an independent dataset, predominantly of Caucasian origin, our continental classifier showed 96.8% accuracy and improved genomic control’s λ from 1.22 to 1.11. We next used the HapMap III dataset to learn classifiers to distinguish European subpopulations (North-Western vs. Southern), East Asian subpopulations (Chinese vs. Japanese), African subpopulations (Eastern vs. Western), North American subpopulations (European vs. Chinese vs. African vs. Mexican vs. Indian), and Kenyan subpopulations (Luhya vs. Maasai). In these cases, ETHNOPRED produced ensembles of 3, 39, 21, 11, and 25 disjoint decision trees, respectively involving 31, 502, 526, 242 and 271 SNPs, with 10-fold cross validation accuracy of

  12. ETHNOPRED: a novel machine learning method for accurate continental and sub-continental ancestry identification and population stratification correction.

    PubMed

    Hajiloo, Mohsen; Sapkota, Yadav; Mackey, John R; Robson, Paula; Greiner, Russell; Damaraju, Sambasivarao

    2013-02-22

    Population stratification is a systematic difference in allele frequencies between subpopulations. This can lead to spurious association findings in the case-control genome wide association studies (GWASs) used to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with disease-linked phenotypes. Methods such as self-declared ancestry, ancestry informative markers, genomic control, structured association, and principal component analysis are used to assess and correct population stratification but each has limitations. We provide an alternative technique to address population stratification. We propose a novel machine learning method, ETHNOPRED, which uses the genotype and ethnicity data from the HapMap project to learn ensembles of disjoint decision trees, capable of accurately predicting an individual's continental and sub-continental ancestry. To predict an individual's continental ancestry, ETHNOPRED produced an ensemble of 3 decision trees involving a total of 10 SNPs, with 10-fold cross validation accuracy of 100% using HapMap II dataset. We extended this model to involve 29 disjoint decision trees over 149 SNPs, and showed that this ensemble has an accuracy of ≥ 99.9%, even if some of those 149 SNP values were missing. On an independent dataset, predominantly of Caucasian origin, our continental classifier showed 96.8% accuracy and improved genomic control's λ from 1.22 to 1.11. We next used the HapMap III dataset to learn classifiers to distinguish European subpopulations (North-Western vs. Southern), East Asian subpopulations (Chinese vs. Japanese), African subpopulations (Eastern vs. Western), North American subpopulations (European vs. Chinese vs. African vs. Mexican vs. Indian), and Kenyan subpopulations (Luhya vs. Maasai). In these cases, ETHNOPRED produced ensembles of 3, 39, 21, 11, and 25 disjoint decision trees, respectively involving 31, 502, 526, 242 and 271 SNPs, with 10-fold cross validation accuracy of 86.5% ± 2.4%, 95.6% ± 3

  13. Syncope: risk stratification and clinical decision making.

    PubMed

    Peeters, Suzanne Y G; Hoek, Amber E; Mollink, Susan M; Huff, J Stephen

    2014-04-01

    Syncope is a common occurrence in the emergency department, accounting for approximately 1% to 3% of presentations. Syncope is best defined as a brief loss of consciousness and postural tone followed by spontaneous and complete recovery. The spectrum of etiologies ranges from benign to life threatening, and a structured approach to evaluating these patients is key to providing care that is thorough, yet cost-effective. This issue reviews the most relevant evidence for managing and risk stratifying the syncope patient, beginning with a focused history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and tailored diagnostic testing. Several risk stratification decision rules are compared for performance in various scenarios, including how age and associated comorbidities may predict short-term and long-term adverse events. An algorithm for structured, evidence-based care of the syncope patient is included to ensure that patients requiring hospitalization are managed appropriately and those with benign causes are discharged safely.

  14. [Comparison of the present and previously used protocol of risk stratification in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia].

    PubMed

    Glodkowska, Eliza; Bialas, Agnieszka; Jackowska, Teresa

    2007-01-01

    Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is one of the most common cancers in children. In Poland, since November 2002 a new protocol of risk stratification has been recommended for assessment of risk factors and for choosing therapy regimens. assessment of accuracy of protocol ALL-IC 2002 in comparison to previously used risk stratification protocols. ALL was diagnosed in 100 children (44 girls, 56 boys; 1-18 years of age) in the Department of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology, Warsaw Medical University, over the period from November 2002 to November 2006. According to the ALL-IC 2002 protocol the patients were divided into three risk groups: SR-standard, IR-intermediate and HR-high. The stratification was by age, leukocyte count, cytogenetic changes, early response to prednisone therapy and bone marrow remission. In the previously used risk stratification protocols-BFM-90, only hepatosplenomegaly and the number of blasts in peripheral blood (PB) were considered, and the patients were divided into three risk groups: low (LRG<0.8), medium (MRG) and high (HRG>1.2). out of the 100 patients qualified for treatment regimens according to the ALL-IC 2002 protocol, 97 entered remission, 11 died and 3 had a relapse. Under the ALL-IC 2002 protocol these children were stratified into the following groups: SR-31%, IR-44% and HR-25%. In the previously used stratification, there would be 26% children in low, 46% in the medium and 28% in the high risk group. According to the BFM-90 protocol 18/31 (58%) and 16/44 (36%) patients from the SR and IR groups respectively would be given more intensive treatment. On the other hand 11/44 (25%) and 14/25 (56%) patients from the IR and HR groups respectively would be given less intensive treatment. 1. ALL-IC 2002 protocol in comparison with the previously used protocol BFM-90, changes the qualification of children with ALL for the SR, IR and HR risk groups. This is linked to basic change of treatment protocol, adequate to severity of disease. 2

  15. Improving risk-stratification of Diabetes complications using temporal data mining.

    PubMed

    Sacchi, Lucia; Dagliati, Arianna; Segagni, Daniele; Leporati, Paola; Chiovato, Luca; Bellazzi, Riccardo

    2015-01-01

    To understand which factor trigger worsened disease control is a crucial step in Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) patient management. The MOSAIC project, funded by the European Commission under the FP7 program, has been designed to integrate heterogeneous data sources and provide decision support in chronic T2D management through patients' continuous stratification. In this work we show how temporal data mining can be fruitfully exploited to improve risk stratification. In particular, we exploit administrative data on drug purchases to divide patients in meaningful groups. The detection of drug consumption patterns allows stratifying the population on the basis of subjects' purchasing attitude. Merging these findings with clinical values indicates the relevance of the applied methods while showing significant differences in the identified groups. This extensive approach emphasized the exploitation of administrative data to identify patterns able to explain clinical conditions.

  16. Prostate cancer: predicting high-risk prostate cancer-a novel stratification tool.

    PubMed

    Buck, Jessica; Chughtai, Bilal

    2014-05-01

    Currently, numerous systems exist for the identification of high-risk prostate cancer, but few of these systems can guide treatment strategies. A new stratification tool that uses common diagnostic factors can help to predict outcomes after radical prostatectomy. The tool aids physicians in the identification of appropriate candidates for aggressive, local treatment.

  17. Risk stratification using lean body mass in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

    PubMed

    Hioki, Hirofumi; Watanabe, Yusuke; Kozuma, Ken; Yamamoto, Masanori; Naganuma, Toru; Araki, Motoharu; Tada, Norio; Shirai, Shinichi; Yamanaka, Futoshi; Higashimori, Akihiro; Mizutani, Kazuki; Tabata, Minoru; Takagi, Kensuke; Ueno, Hiroshi; Hayashida, Kentaro

    2018-02-22

    The prognostic impact of skeletal muscle mass, assessed using lean body mass (LBM), remain unclear in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). The aim of this study to assess prognostic impact of LBM on mortality after TAVR. We assessed 1,613 patients (median age 85 years, 70% female) who underwent TAVI from October 2013 to April 2016 using OCEAN (Optimized transCathEter vAlvular interveNtion)-TAVI registry data. LBM was calculated using the James formula. The primary endpoint was all-cause death after TAVR. Median follow-up period was 287 days (interquartile range 110-462). The Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients with low LBM had significantly higher incidence of all-cause death than those with high LBM in male (32.3% vs. 9.9%, log rank P < 0.001) and female (15.8% vs. 9.2%, log-rank P = 0.011). On contrary, the risk stratification using body mass index (BMI) could not validate into female patients who underwent TAVR. The multivariate analysis showed that the LBM was an independent predictor of all-cause death in male (Hazard ratio [HR] 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.89-0.98) and female (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.89-0.99). Inversely, the assessment using BMI could not identify the high-risk population in a female. The patients with low LBM had the higher incidence of all-cause death after TAVR than those with high LBM, regardless of gender. Thus, the risk stratification using LBM might provide further insight to identify the high-risk TAVR population, compared to conventional risk stratification using BMI. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Cytoplasmic expression of C-MYC protein is associated with risk stratification of mantle cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Gong, Yi; Zhang, Xi; Chen, Rui; Wei, Yan; Zou, Zhongmin; Chen, Xinghua

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the association of C-MYC protein expression and risk stratification in mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), and to evaluate the utility of C-MYC protein as a prognostic biomarker in clinical practice. We conducted immunohistochemical staining of C-MYC, Programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1), CD8, Ki-67, p53 and SRY (sex determining region Y) -11 (SOX11) to investigate their expression in 64 patients with MCL. The staining results and other clinical data were evaluated for their roles in risk stratification of MCL cases using ANOVA, Chi-square, and Spearman's Rank correlation coefficient analysis. Immunohistochemical staining in our study indicated that SOX11, Ki-67 and p53 presented nuclear positivity of tumor cells, CD8 showed membrane positivity in infiltrating T lymphocytes while PD-L1 showed membrane and cytoplasmic positivity mainly in macrophage cells and little in tumor cells. We observed positive staining of C-MYC either in the nucleus or cytoplasm or in both subcellular locations. There were significant differences in cytoplasmic C-MYC expression, Ki-67 proliferative index of tumor cells, and CD8 positive tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (CD8+TIL) among three risk groups ( P  = 0.000, P  = 0.037 and P =0.020, respectively). However, no significant differences existed in the expression of nuclear C-MYC, SOX11, p53, and PD-L1 in MCL patients with low-, intermediate-, and high risks. In addition, patient age and serum LDH level were also significantly different among 3 groups of patients ( P  = 0.006 and P  = 0.000, respectively). Spearman's rank correlation coefficient analysis indicated that cytoplasmic C-MYC expression, Ki-67 index, age, WBC, as well as LDH level had significantly positive correlations with risk stratification ( P  = 0.000, 0.015, 0.000, 0.029 and 0.000, respectively), while CD8+TIL in tumor microenvironment negatively correlated with risk stratification of patients ( P  = 0.006). Patients with increased positive

  19. BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

    PubMed

    Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.

  20. Preventing tomorrow's sudden cardiac death today: part I: Current data on risk stratification for sudden cardiac death.

    PubMed

    Al-Khatib, Sana M; Sanders, Gillian D; Bigger, J Thomas; Buxton, Alfred E; Califf, Robert M; Carlson, Mark; Curtis, Anne; Curtis, Jeptha; Fain, Eric; Gersh, Bernard J; Gold, Michael R; Haghighi-Mood, Ali; Hammill, Stephen C; Healey, Jeff; Hlatky, Mark; Hohnloser, Stefan; Kim, Raymond J; Lee, Kerry; Mark, Daniel; Mianulli, Marcus; Mitchell, Brent; Prystowsky, Eric N; Smith, Joseph; Steinhaus, David; Zareba, Wojciech

    2007-06-01

    Accurate and timely prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a necessary prerequisite for effective prevention and therapy. Although the largest number of SCD events occurs in patients without overt heart disease, there are currently no tests that are of proven predictive value in this population. Efforts in risk stratification for SCD have focused primarily on predicting SCD in patients with known structural heart disease. Despite the ubiquity of tests that have been purported to predict SCD vulnerability in such patients, there is little consensus on which test, in addition to the left ventricular ejection fraction, should be used to determine which patients will benefit from an implantable cardioverter defibrillator. On July 20 and 21, 2006, a group of experts representing clinical cardiology, cardiac electrophysiology, biostatistics, economics, and health policy were joined by representatives of the US Food and Drug administration, Centers for Medicare Services, Agency for Health Research and Quality, the Heart Rhythm Society, and the device and pharmaceutical industry for a round table meeting to review current data on strategies of risk stratification for SCD, to explore methods to translate these strategies into practice and policy, and to identify areas that need to be addressed by future research studies. The meeting was organized by the Duke Center for the Prevention of SCD at the Duke Clinical Research Institute and was funded by industry participants. This article summarizes the presentations and discussions that occurred at that meeting.

  1. A novel metric that quantifies risk stratification for evaluating diagnostic tests: The example of evaluating cervical-cancer screening tests across populations.

    PubMed

    Katki, Hormuzd A; Schiffman, Mark

    2018-05-01

    Our work involves assessing whether new biomarkers might be useful for cervical-cancer screening across populations with different disease prevalences and biomarker distributions. When comparing across populations, we show that standard diagnostic accuracy statistics (predictive values, risk-differences, Youden's index and Area Under the Curve (AUC)) can easily be misinterpreted. We introduce an intuitively simple statistic for a 2 × 2 table, Mean Risk Stratification (MRS): the average change in risk (pre-test vs. post-test) revealed for tested individuals. High MRS implies better risk separation achieved by testing. MRS has 3 key advantages for comparing test performance across populations with different disease prevalences and biomarker distributions. First, MRS demonstrates that conventional predictive values and the risk-difference do not measure risk-stratification because they do not account for test-positivity rates. Second, Youden's index and AUC measure only multiplicative relative gains in risk-stratification: AUC = 0.6 achieves only 20% of maximum risk-stratification (AUC = 0.9 achieves 80%). Third, large relative gains in risk-stratification might not imply large absolute gains if disease is rare, demonstrating a "high-bar" to justify population-based screening for rare diseases such as cancer. We illustrate MRS by our experience comparing the performance of cervical-cancer screening tests in China vs. the USA. The test with the worst AUC = 0.72 in China (visual inspection with acetic acid) provides twice the risk-stratification (i.e. MRS) of the test with best AUC = 0.83 in the USA (human papillomavirus and Pap cotesting) because China has three times more cervical precancer/cancer. MRS could be routinely calculated to better understand the clinical/public-health implications of standard diagnostic accuracy statistics. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. The Auckland Cataract Study II: Reducing Complications by Preoperative Risk Stratification and Case Allocation in a Teaching Hospital.

    PubMed

    Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; McKelvie, James; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

    2017-09-01

    To assess the effect of preoperative risk stratification for phacoemulsification surgery on intraoperative complications in a teaching hospital. Prospective cohort study. Prospective assessment of consecutive phacoemulsification cases (N = 500) enabled calculation of a risk score (M-score of 0-8) using a risk stratification system. M-scores of >3 were allocated to senior surgeons. All surgeries were performed in a public teaching hospital setting, Auckland, New Zealand, in early 2016. Postoperatively, data were reviewed for complications and corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA). Results were compared to a prospective study (N = 500, phase 1) performed prior to formal introduction of risk stratification. Intraoperative complications increased with increasing M-scores (P = .044). Median M-score for complicated cases was higher (P = .022). Odds ratio (OR) for a complication increased 1.269 per unit increase in M-score (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.007-1.599, P = .043). Overall rate of any intraoperative complication was 5.0%. Intraoperative complication rates decreased from 8.4% to 5.0% (OR = 0.576, P = .043) comparing phase 1 and phase 2 (formal introduction of risk stratification). The severity of complications also reduced. A significant decrease in complications for M = 0 (ie, minimal risk cases) was also identified comparing the current study (3.1%) to phase 1 (7.2%), P = .034. There was no change in postoperative complication risks (OR 0.812, P = .434) or in mean postoperative CDVA (20/30, P = .484) comparing current with phase 1 outcomes. A simple preoperative risk stratification system, based on standard patient information gathered at preoperative consultation, appears to reduce intraoperative complications and support safer surgical training by appropriate allocation of higher-risk cases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Optimizing risk stratification in heart failure and the selection of candidates for heart transplantation.

    PubMed

    Pereira-da-Silva, Tiago; M Soares, Rui; Papoila, Ana Luísa; Pinto, Iola; Feliciano, Joana; Almeida-Morais, Luís; Abreu, Ana; Cruz Ferreira, Rui

    2018-02-01

    Selecting patients for heart transplantation is challenging. We aimed to identify the most important risk predictors in heart failure and an approach to optimize the selection of candidates for heart transplantation. Ambulatory patients followed in our center with symptomatic heart failure and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% prospectively underwent a comprehensive baseline assessment including clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic, echocardiographic, and cardiopulmonary exercise testing parameters. All patients were followed for 60 months. The combined endpoint was cardiac death, urgent heart transplantation or need for mechanical circulatory support, up to 36 months. In the 263 enrolled patients (75% male, age 54±12 years), 54 events occurred. The independent predictors of adverse outcome were ventilatory efficiency (VE/VCO 2 ) slope (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.11-1.18), creatinine level (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.14-4.36), and left ventricular ejection fraction (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.99). VE/VCO 2 slope was the most accurate risk predictor at any follow-up time analyzed (up to 60 months). The threshold of 39.0 yielded high specificity (97%), discriminated a worse or better prognosis than that reported for post-heart transplantation, and outperformed peak oxygen consumption thresholds of 10.0 or 12.0 ml/kg/min. For low-risk patients (VE/VCO 2 slope <39.0), sodium and creatinine levels and variations in end-tidal carbon dioxide partial pressure on exercise identified those with excellent prognosis. VE/VCO 2 slope was the most accurate parameter for risk stratification in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. Those with VE/VCO 2 slope ≥39.0 may benefit from heart transplantation. Copyright © 2018 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. Application of multivariate probabilistic (Bayesian) networks to substance use disorder risk stratification and cost estimation.

    PubMed

    Weinstein, Lawrence; Radano, Todd A; Jack, Timothy; Kalina, Philip; Eberhardt, John S

    2009-09-16

    This paper explores the use of machine learning and Bayesian classification models to develop broadly applicable risk stratification models to guide disease management of health plan enrollees with substance use disorder (SUD). While the high costs and morbidities associated with SUD are understood by payers, who manage it through utilization review, acute interventions, coverage and cost limitations, and disease management, the literature shows mixed results for these modalities in improving patient outcomes and controlling cost. Our objective is to evaluate the potential of data mining methods to identify novel risk factors for chronic disease and stratification of enrollee utilization, which can be used to develop new methods for targeting disease management services to maximize benefits to both enrollees and payers. For our evaluation, we used DecisionQ machine learning algorithms to build Bayesian network models of a representative sample of data licensed from Thomson-Reuters' MarketScan consisting of 185,322 enrollees with three full-year claim records. Data sets were prepared, and a stepwise learning process was used to train a series of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). The BBNs were validated using a 10 percent holdout set. The networks were highly predictive, with the risk-stratification BBNs producing area under the curve (AUC) for SUD positive of 0.948 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.944-0.951) and 0.736 (95 percent CI, 0.721-0.752), respectively, and SUD negative of 0.951 (95 percent CI, 0.947-0.954) and 0.738 (95 percent CI, 0.727-0.750), respectively. The cost estimation models produced area under the curve ranging from 0.72 (95 percent CI, 0.708-0.731) to 0.961 (95 percent CI, 0.95-0.971). We were able to successfully model a large, heterogeneous population of commercial enrollees, applying state-of-the-art machine learning technology to develop complex and accurate multivariate models that support near-real-time scoring of novel payer

  5. A three-gene expression signature model for risk stratification of patients with neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Garcia, Idoia; Mayol, Gemma; Ríos, José; Domenech, Gema; Cheung, Nai-Kong V; Oberthuer, André; Fischer, Matthias; Maris, John M; Brodeur, Garrett M; Hero, Barbara; Rodríguez, Eva; Suñol, Mariona; Galvan, Patricia; de Torres, Carmen; Mora, Jaume; Lavarino, Cinzia

    2012-04-01

    Neuroblastoma is an embryonal tumor with contrasting clinical courses. Despite elaborate stratification strategies, precise clinical risk assessment still remains a challenge. The purpose of this study was to develop a PCR-based predictor model to improve clinical risk assessment of patients with neuroblastoma. The model was developed using real-time PCR gene expression data from 96 samples and tested on separate expression data sets obtained from real-time PCR and microarray studies comprising 362 patients. On the basis of our prior study of differentially expressed genes in favorable and unfavorable neuroblastoma subgroups, we identified three genes, CHD5, PAFAH1B1, and NME1, strongly associated with patient outcome. The expression pattern of these genes was used to develop a PCR-based single-score predictor model. The model discriminated patients into two groups with significantly different clinical outcome [set 1: 5-year overall survival (OS): 0.93 ± 0.03 vs. 0.53 ± 0.06, 5-year event-free survival (EFS): 0.85 ± 0.04 vs. 0.042 ± 0.06, both P < 0.001; set 2 OS: 0.97 ± 0.02 vs. 0.61 ± 0.1, P = 0.005, EFS: 0.91 ± 0.8 vs. 0.56 ± 0.1, P = 0.005; and set 3 OS: 0.99 ± 0.01 vs. 0.56 ± 0.06, EFS: 0.96 ± 0.02 vs. 0.43 ± 0.05, both P < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis showed that the model was an independent marker for survival (P < 0.001, for all). In comparison with accepted risk stratification systems, the model robustly classified patients in the total cohort and in different clinically relevant risk subgroups. We propose for the first time in neuroblastoma, a technically simple PCR-based predictor model that could help refine current risk stratification systems. ©2012 AACR.

  6. A Three-Gene Expression Signature Model for Risk Stratification of Patients with Neuroblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Garcia, Idoia; Mayol, Gemma; Ríos, José; Domenech, Gema; Cheung, Nai-Kong V.; Oberthuer, André; Fischer, Matthias; Maris, John M.; Brodeur, Garrett M.; Hero, Barbara; Rodríguez, Eva; Suñol, Mariona; Galvan, Patricia; de Torres, Carmen; Mora, Jaume; Lavarino, Cinzia

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Neuroblastoma is an embryonal tumor with contrasting clinical courses. Despite elaborate stratification strategies, precise clinical risk assessment still remains a challenge. The purpose of this study was to develop a PCR-based predictor model to improve clinical risk assessment of patients with neuroblastoma. Experimental Design The model was developed using real-time PCR gene expression data from 96 samples and tested on separate expression data sets obtained from real-time PCR and microarray studies comprising 362 patients. Results On the basis of our prior study of differentially expressed genes in favorable and unfavorable neuroblastoma subgroups, we identified three genes, CHD5, PAFAH1B1, and NME1, strongly associated with patient outcome. The expression pattern of these genes was used to develop a PCR-based single-score predictor model. The model discriminated patients into two groups with significantly different clinical outcome [set 1: 5-year overall survival (OS): 0.93 ± 0.03 vs. 0.53 ± 0.06, 5-year event-free survival (EFS): 0.85 ± 0.04 vs. 0.042 ± 0.06, both P < 0.001; set 2 OS: 0.97 ± 0.02 vs. 0.61 ± 0.1, P = 0.005, EFS: 0.91 ± 0.8 vs. 0.56 ± 0.1, P = 0.005; and set 3 OS: 0.99 ± 0.01 vs. 0.56 ± 0.06, EFS: 0.96 ± 0.02 vs. 0.43 ± 0.05, both P < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis showed that the model was an independent marker for survival (P < 0.001, for all). In comparison with accepted risk stratification systems, the model robustly classified patients in the total cohort and in different clinically relevant risk subgroups. Conclusion We propose for the first time in neuroblastoma, a technically simple PCR-based predictor model that could help refine current risk stratification systems. PMID:22328561

  7. A Risk Stratification Model for Lung Cancer Based on Gene Coexpression Network and Deep Learning

    PubMed Central

    2018-01-01

    Risk stratification model for lung cancer with gene expression profile is of great interest. Instead of previous models based on individual prognostic genes, we aimed to develop a novel system-level risk stratification model for lung adenocarcinoma based on gene coexpression network. Using multiple microarray, gene coexpression network analysis was performed to identify survival-related networks. A deep learning based risk stratification model was constructed with representative genes of these networks. The model was validated in two test sets. Survival analysis was performed using the output of the model to evaluate whether it could predict patients' survival independent of clinicopathological variables. Five networks were significantly associated with patients' survival. Considering prognostic significance and representativeness, genes of the two survival-related networks were selected for input of the model. The output of the model was significantly associated with patients' survival in two test sets and training set (p < 0.00001, p < 0.0001 and p = 0.02 for training and test sets 1 and 2, resp.). In multivariate analyses, the model was associated with patients' prognosis independent of other clinicopathological features. Our study presents a new perspective on incorporating gene coexpression networks into the gene expression signature and clinical application of deep learning in genomic data science for prognosis prediction. PMID:29581968

  8. Risk stratification following acute myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Singh, Mandeep

    2007-07-01

    This article reviews the current risk assessment models available for patients presenting with myocardial infarction (MI). These practical tools enhance the health care provider's ability to rapidly and accurately assess patient risk from the event or revascularization therapy, and are of paramount importance in managing patients presenting with MI. This article highlights the models used for ST-elevation MI (STEMI) and non-ST elevation MI (NSTEMI) and provides an additional description of models used to assess risks after primary angioplasty (ie, angioplasty performed for STEMI).

  9. Risk stratification and staging in prostate cancer with prostatic specific membrane antigen PET/CTObjective: A one-stop-shop.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Manoj; Choudhury, Partha Sarathi; Rawal, Sudhir; Goel, Harish Chandra; Singh, Amitabh; Talwar, Vineet; Sahoo, Saroj Kumar

    2017-01-01

    Current imaging modalities for prostate cancer (PC) had limitations for risk stratification and staging. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) frequently underestimated lymphatic metastasis while bone scintigraphy often had diagnostic dilemmas. Prostatic specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET/CT) has been remarkable in diagnosing PC recurrence and staging. We hypothesized it can become one-stop-shop for initial risk stratification and staging. Ninety seven PSMA PET-CT studies were re analysed for tumor node metastases (TNM) staging and risk stratification of lymphatic and distant metastases proportion. The histopathology of 23/97 patients was available as gold standard. Chi-square test was used for proportion comparison. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), over-estimation, under-estimation and correct-estimation of T and N stages were calculated. Cohen's kappa coefficient (k) was derived for inter-rater agreement. Lymphic or distant metastases detection on PSMA PET/CT increased significantly with increase in risk category. PSMA PET/CT sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for extra prostatic extension (EPE), seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) and lymphatic metastases were 63.16%, 100%, 100%, 36.36% & 55%, 100%, 100%, 25% and 65.62%, 99.31%, 87.50%, 97.53%, respectively. Cohen's kappa coefficient showed substantial agreement between PSMA PET/CT and histopathological lymphic metastases (κ 0.734) however, it was just in fair agreement (κ 0.277) with T stage. PSMA PET/CT over-estimated, under-estimated and correct-estimated T and N stages in 8.71%, 39.13%, 52.17% and 8.71%, 4.35%, 86.96% cases, respectively. We found that PSMA PET/CT has potential for initial risk stratifications with reasonable correct estimation for N stage. However, it can underestimate T stage. Hence, we suggest that PSMA PET/CT should be used for staging and initial risk stratification of PC as one

  10. Value of Donor–Specific Anti–HLA Antibody Monitoring and Characterization for Risk Stratification of Kidney Allograft Loss

    PubMed Central

    Viglietti, Denis; Loupy, Alexandre; Vernerey, Dewi; Bentlejewski, Carol; Gosset, Clément; Aubert, Olivier; Duong van Huyen, Jean-Paul; Jouven, Xavier; Legendre, Christophe; Glotz, Denis; Zeevi, Adriana

    2017-01-01

    The diagnosis system for allograft loss lacks accurate individual risk stratification on the basis of donor–specific anti–HLA antibody (anti-HLA DSA) characterization. We investigated whether systematic monitoring of DSA with extensive characterization increases performance in predicting kidney allograft loss. This prospective study included 851 kidney recipients transplanted between 2008 and 2010 who were systematically screened for DSA at transplant, 1 and 2 years post-transplant, and the time of post–transplant clinical events. We assessed DSA characteristics and performed systematic allograft biopsies at the time of post–transplant serum evaluation. At transplant, 110 (12.9%) patients had DSAs; post-transplant screening identified 186 (21.9%) DSA-positive patients. Post–transplant DSA monitoring improved the prediction of allograft loss when added to a model that included traditional determinants of allograft loss (increase in c statistic from 0.67; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.62 to 0.73 to 0.72; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.77). Addition of DSA IgG3 positivity or C1q binding capacity increased discrimination performance of the traditional model at transplant and post-transplant. Compared with DSA mean fluorescence intensity, DSA IgG3 positivity and C1q binding capacity adequately reclassified patients at lower or higher risk for allograft loss at transplant (category–free net reclassification index, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.67; P<0.001 and 0.93; 95% CI, 0.49 to 1.36; P<0.001, respectively) and post-transplant (category–free net reclassification index, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.62; P<0.001 and 0.95; 95% CI, 0.62 to 1.28; P<0.001, respectively). Thus, pre– and post–transplant DSA monitoring and characterization may improve individual risk stratification for kidney allograft loss. PMID:27493255

  11. The TRIAGE-ProADM Score for an Early Risk Stratification of Medical Patients in the Emergency Department - Development Based on a Multi-National, Prospective, Observational Study

    PubMed Central

    Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Conca, Antoinette; Haubitz, Sebastian; Struja, Tristan; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The inflammatory biomarker pro-adrenomedullin (ProADM) provides additional prognostic information for the risk stratification of general medical emergency department (ED) patients. The aim of this analysis was to develop a triage algorithm for improved prognostication and later use in an interventional trial. Methods We used data from the multi-national, prospective, observational TRIAGE trial including consecutive medical ED patients from Switzerland, France and the United States. We investigated triage effects when adding ProADM at two established cut-offs to a five-level ED triage score with respect to adverse clinical outcome. Results Mortality in the 6586 ED patients showed a step-wise, 25-fold increase from 0.6% to 4.5% and 15.4%, respectively, at the two ProADM cut-offs (≤0.75nmol/L, >0.75–1.5nmol/L, >1.5nmol/L, p ANOVA <0.0001). Risk stratification by combining ProADM within cut-off groups and the triage score resulted in the identification of 1662 patients (25.2% of the population) at a very low risk of mortality (0.3%, n = 5) and 425 patients (6.5% of the population) at very high risk of mortality (19.3%, n = 82). Risk estimation by using ProADM and the triage score from a logistic regression model allowed for a more accurate risk estimation in the whole population with a classification of 3255 patients (49.4% of the population) in the low risk group (0.3% mortality, n = 9) and 1673 (25.4% of the population) in the high-risk group (15.1% mortality, n = 252). Conclusions Within this large international multicenter study, a combined triage score based on ProADM and established triage scores allowed a more accurate mortality risk discrimination. The TRIAGE-ProADM score improved identification of both patients at the highest risk of mortality who may benefit from early therapeutic interventions (rule in), and low risk patients where deferred treatment without negatively affecting outcome may be possible (rule out). PMID:28005916

  12. Risk Stratification in Arrhythmic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Without Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators

    PubMed Central

    Brun, Francesca; Groeneweg, Judith A.; Gear, Kathleen; Sinagra, Gianfranco; van der Heijden, Jeroen; Mestroni, Luisa; Hauer, Richard N.; Borgstrom, Mark; Marcus, Frank I.; Hughes, Trina

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The primary objective of this study is risk stratification of patients with arrhythmic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). Background There is a need to identify those who need an automatic implantable defibrillator (ICD) to prevent sudden death. Methods This is an analysis of 88 patients with ARVC from three centers who were not treated with an ICD. Results Risk factors for subsequent arrhythmic deaths were pre-enrollment sustained or nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) and decreased left ventricular function. Conclusion These factors serve as proposed guidelines for implantation of an ICD in patients with ARVC to prevent sudden death. PMID:27790640

  13. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  14. Analysis of agreement between cardiac risk stratification protocols applied to participants of a center for cardiac rehabilitation

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Ana A. S.; Silva, Anne K. F.; Vanderlei, Franciele M.; Christofaro, Diego G. D.; Gonçalves, Aline F. L.; Vanderlei, Luiz C. M.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background Cardiac risk stratification is related to the risk of the occurrence of events induced by exercise. Despite the existence of several protocols to calculate risk stratification, studies indicating that there is similarity between these protocols are still unknown. Objective To evaluate the agreement between the existing protocols on cardiac risk rating in cardiac patients. Method The records of 50 patients from a cardiac rehabilitation program were analyzed, from which the following information was extracted: age, sex, weight, height, clinical diagnosis, medical history, risk factors, associated diseases, and the results from the most recent laboratory and complementary tests performed. This information was used for risk stratification of the patients in the protocols of the American College of Sports Medicine, the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, the protocol designed by Frederic J. Pashkow, the American Association of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehabilitation, the Société Française de Cardiologie, and the Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample and the analysis of agreement between the protocols was calculated using the Kappa coefficient. Differences were considered with a significance level of 5%. Results Of the 21 analyses of agreement, 12 were considered significant between the protocols used for risk classification, with nine classified as moderate and three as low. No agreements were classified as excellent. Different proportions were observed in each risk category, with significant differences between the protocols for all risk categories. Conclusion The agreements between the protocols were considered low and moderate and the risk proportions differed between protocols. PMID:27556385

  15. Risk stratification of childhood medulloblastoma in the molecular era: the current consensus.

    PubMed

    Ramaswamy, Vijay; Remke, Marc; Bouffet, Eric; Bailey, Simon; Clifford, Steven C; Doz, Francois; Kool, Marcel; Dufour, Christelle; Vassal, Gilles; Milde, Till; Witt, Olaf; von Hoff, Katja; Pietsch, Torsten; Northcott, Paul A; Gajjar, Amar; Robinson, Giles W; Padovani, Laetitia; André, Nicolas; Massimino, Maura; Pizer, Barry; Packer, Roger; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pfister, Stefan M; Taylor, Michael D; Pomeroy, Scott L

    2016-06-01

    Historical risk stratification criteria for medulloblastoma rely primarily on clinicopathological variables pertaining to age, presence of metastases, extent of resection, histological subtypes and in some instances individual genetic aberrations such as MYC and MYCN amplification. In 2010, an international panel of experts established consensus defining four main subgroups of medulloblastoma (WNT, SHH, Group 3 and Group 4) delineated by transcriptional profiling. This has led to the current generation of biomarker-driven clinical trials assigning WNT tumors to a favorable prognosis group in addition to clinicopathological criteria including MYC and MYCN gene amplifications. However, outcome prediction of non-WNT subgroups is a challenge due to inconsistent survival reports. In 2015, a consensus conference was convened in Heidelberg with the objective to further refine the risk stratification in the context of subgroups and agree on a definition of risk groups of non-infant, childhood medulloblastoma (ages 3-17). Published and unpublished data over the past 5 years were reviewed, and a consensus was reached regarding the level of evidence for currently available biomarkers. The following risk groups were defined based on current survival rates: low risk (>90 % survival), average (standard) risk (75-90 % survival), high risk (50-75 % survival) and very high risk (<50 % survival) disease. The WNT subgroup and non-metastatic Group 4 tumors with whole chromosome 11 loss or whole chromosome 17 gain were recognized as low-risk tumors that may qualify for reduced therapy. High-risk strata were defined as patients with metastatic SHH or Group 4 tumors, or MYCN-amplified SHH medulloblastomas. Very high-risk patients are Group 3 with metastases or SHH with TP53 mutation. In addition, a number of consensus points were reached that should be standardized across future clinical trials. Although we anticipate new data will emerge from currently ongoing and recently

  16. Risk stratification of childhood medulloblastoma in the molecular era: The Current Consensus

    PubMed Central

    Ramaswamy, Vijay; Remke, Marc; Bouffet, Eric; Bailey, Simon; Clifford, Steven C.; Doz, Francois; Kool, Marcel; Dufour, Christelle; Vassal, Gilles; Milde, Till; Witt, Olaf; von Hoff, Katja; Pietsch, Torsten; Northcott, Paul A.; Gajjar, Amar; Robinson, Giles W.; Padovani, Laetitia; André, Nicolas; Massimino, Maura; Pizer, Barry; Packer, Roger; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pfister, Stefan M.; Taylor, Michael D.; Pomeroy, Scott L.

    2016-01-01

    Historical risk stratification criteria for medulloblastoma rely primarily on clinicopathological variables pertaining to age, presence of metastases, extent of resection, histological subtypes and in some instances individual genetic aberrations such as MYC and MYCN amplification. In 2010, an international panel of experts established consensus defining four main subgroups of medulloblastoma (WNT, SHH, Group 3 and Group 4) delineated by transcriptional profiling. This has led to the current generation of biomarker-driven clinical trials assigning WNT tumors to a favorable prognosis group in addition to clinicopathological criteria including MYC and MYCN gene amplifications. However, outcome prediction of non-WNT subgroups is a challenge due to inconsistent survival reports. In 2015, a consensus conference was convened in Heidelberg with the objective to further refine the risk stratification in the context of subgroups and agree on a definition of risk groups of non-infant, childhood medulloblastoma (ages 3–17). Published and unpublished data over the past five years were reviewed, and a consensus was reached regarding the level of evidence for currently available biomarkers. The following risk groups were defined based on current survival rates: low risk (>90% survival), average (standard) risk (75–90% survival), high risk (50–75% survival) and very high risk (<50% survival) disease. The WNT subgroup and non-metastatic Group 4 tumors with whole chromosome 11 loss or whole chromosome 17 gain were recognized as low risk tumors that may qualify for reduced therapy. High-risk strata were defined as patients with metastatic SHH or Group 4 tumors, or MYCN amplified SHH medulloblastomas. Very high-risk patients are Group 3 with metastases or SHH with TP53 mutation. In addition, a number of consensus points were reached that should be standardized across future clinical trials. Although we anticipate new data will emerge from currently ongoing and recently

  17. Raynaud’s phenomenon and digital ischemia: a practical approach to risk stratification, diagnosis and management

    PubMed Central

    McMahan, Zsuzsanna H.; Wigley, Fredrick M.

    2015-01-01

    Digital ischemia is a painful and often disfiguring event. Such an ischemic event often leads to tissue loss and can significantly affect the patient’s quality of life. Digital ischemia can be secondary to a vasculopathy, vasculitis, embolic disease, trauma, or extrinsic vascular compression. It is an especially serious complication in patients with scleroderma. Risk stratification of patients with scleroderma at risk for digital ischemia is now possible with clinical assessment and autoantibody profiles. Because there are a variety of conditions that lead to digital ischemia, it is important to understand the pathophysiology underlying each ischemic presentation in order to target therapy appropriately. Significant progress has been made in the last two decades in defining the pathophysiological processes leading to digital ischemia in rheumatic diseases. In this article we review the risk stratification, diagnosis, and management of patients with digital ischemia and provide a practical approach to therapy, particularly in scleroderma. PMID:26523153

  18. Standardized reporting guidelines for emergency department syncope risk-stratification research.

    PubMed

    Sun, Benjamin C; Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Cruz, Jeffrey Dela

    2012-06-01

    There is increasing research interest in the risk stratification of emergency department (ED) syncope patients. A major barrier to comparing and synthesizing existing research is wide variation in the conduct and reporting of studies. The authors wanted to create standardized reporting guidelines for ED syncope risk-stratification research using an expert consensus process. In that pursuit, a panel of syncope researchers was convened and a literature review was performed to identify candidate reporting guideline elements. Candidate elements were grouped into four sections: eligibility criteria, outcomes, electrocardiogram (ECG) findings, and predictors. A two-round, modified Delphi consensus process was conducted using an Internet-based survey application. In the first round, candidate elements were rated on a five-point Likert scale. In the second round, panelists rerated items after receiving information about group ratings from the first round. Items that were rated by >80% of the panelists at the two highest levels of the Likert scale were included in the final guidelines. There were 24 panelists from eight countries who represented five clinical specialties. The panel identified an initial set of 183 candidate elements. After two survey rounds, the final reporting guidelines included 92 items that achieved >80% consensus. These included 10 items for study eligibility, 23 items for outcomes, nine items for ECG abnormalities, and 50 items for candidate predictors. Adherence to these guidelines should facilitate comparison of future research in this area. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  19. Developing and validating a novel metabolic tumor volume risk stratification system for supplementing non-small cell lung cancer staging.

    PubMed

    Pu, Yonglin; Zhang, James X; Liu, Haiyan; Appelbaum, Daniel; Meng, Jianfeng; Penney, Bill C

    2018-06-07

    We hypothesized that whole-body metabolic tumor volume (MTVwb) could be used to supplement non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) staging due to its independent prognostic value. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a novel MTVwb risk stratification system to supplement NSCLC staging. We performed an IRB-approved retrospective review of 935 patients with NSCLC and FDG-avid tumor divided into modeling and validation cohorts based on the type of PET/CT scanner used for imaging. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted by dividing the patient population into two randomized cohorts. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed to determine the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratification system. The cut-off values (10.0, 53.4 and 155.0 mL) between the MTVwb quartiles of the modeling cohort were applied to both the modeling and validation cohorts to determine each patient's MTVwb risk stratum. The survival analyses showed that a lower MTVwb risk stratum was associated with better overall survival (all p < 0.01), independent of TNM stage together with other clinical prognostic factors, and the discriminatory power of the MTVwb risk stratification system, as measured by Gönen and Heller's concordance index, was not significantly different from that of TNM stage in both cohorts. Also, the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratum was robust in the two randomized cohorts. The discordance rate between the MTVwb risk stratum and TNM stage or substage was 45.1% in the modeling cohort and 50.3% in the validation cohort. This study developed and validated a novel MTVwb risk stratification system, which has prognostic value independent of the TNM stage and other clinical prognostic factors in NSCLC, suggesting that it could be used for further NSCLC pretreatment assessment and for refining treatment decisions in individual patients.

  20. 68Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT: a promising new technique for predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chen; Liu, Teli; Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yiqiang; Li, Nan; Du, Peng; Yang, Yong; Liu, Ming; Gong, Kan; Yang, Xing; Zhu, Hua; Yan, Kun; Yang, Zhi

    2018-05-02

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT in predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer. Fifty newly diagnosed patients with prostate cancer as confirmed by needle biopsy were continuously included, 40 in a train set and ten in a test set. 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT and clinical data of all patients were retrospectively analyzed. Semi-quantitative analysis of PET images provided maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of primary prostate cancer and volumetric parameters including intraprostatic PSMA-derived tumor volume (iPSMA-TV) and intraprostatic total lesion PSMA (iTL-PSMA). According to prostate cancer risk stratification criteria of the NCCN Guideline, all patients were simplified into a low-intermediate risk group or a high-risk group. The semi-quantitative parameters of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT were used to establish a univariate logistic regression model for high-risk prostate cancer and its metastatic risk, and to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of the predictive model. In the train set, 30/40 (75%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer and 10/40 (25%) patients had low-to-moderate-risk prostate cancer; in the test set, 8/10 (80%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer while 2/10 (20%) had low-intermediate risk prostate cancer. The univariate logistic regression model established with SUVmax, iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA could all effectively predict high-risk prostate cancer; the AUC of ROC were 0.843, 0.802 and 0.900, respectively. Based on the test set, the sensitivity and specificity of each model were 87.5% and 50% for SUVmax, 62.5% and 100% for iPSMA-TV, and 87.5% and 100% for iTL-PSMA, respectively. The iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA-based predictive model could predict the metastatic risk of prostate cancer, the AUC of ROC was 0.863 and 0.848, respectively, but the SUVmax-based prediction model could not predict metastatic risk. Semi-quantitative analysis indexes of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT imaging can be

  1. Investigating Summer Thermal Stratification in Lake Ontario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    James, S. C.; Arifin, R. R.; Craig, P. M.; Hamlet, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal temperature variations establish strong vertical density gradients (thermoclines) between the epilimnion and hypolimnion. Accurate simulation of vertical mixing and seasonal stratification of large lakes is a crucial element of the thermodynamic coupling between lakes and the atmosphere in integrated models. Time-varying thermal stratification patterns can be accurately simulated with the versatile Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC). Lake Ontario bathymetry was interpolated onto a 2-km-resolution curvilinear grid with vertical layering using a new approach in EFDC+, the so-called "sigma-zed" coordinate system which allows the number of vertical layers to be varied based on water depth. Inflow from the Niagara River and outflow to the St. Lawrence River in conjunction with hourly meteorological data from seven local weather stations plus three-hourly data from the North American Regional Reanalysis govern the hydrodynamic and thermodynamic responses of the Lake. EFDC+'s evaporation algorithm was updated to more accurately simulate net surface heat fluxes. A new vertical mixing scheme from Vinçon-Leite that implements different eddy diffusivity formulations above and below the thermocline was compared to results from the original Mellor-Yamada vertical mixing scheme. The model was calibrated by adjusting solar-radiation absorption coefficients in addition to background horizontal and vertical mixing parameters. Model skill was evaluated by comparing measured and simulated vertical temperature profiles at shallow (20 m) and deep (180 m) locations on the Lake. These model improvements, especially the new sigma-zed vertical discretization, accurately capture thermal-stratification patterns with low root-mean-squared errors when using the Vinçon-Leite vertical mixing scheme.

  2. Degree of Agreement between Cardiovascular Risk Stratification Tools.

    PubMed

    Garcia, Guilherme Thomé; Stamm, Ana Maria Nunes de Faria; Rosa, Ariel Córdova; Marasciulo, Antônio Carlos; Marasciulo, Rodrigo Conill; Battistella, Cristian; Remor, Alexandre Augusto de Costa

    2017-05-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Brazil, and primary prevention care may be guided by risk stratification tools. The Framingham (FRS) and QRISK-2 (QRS) risk scores estimate 10-year overall cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic individuals, but the instrument of choice may lead to different therapeutic strategies. To evaluate the degree of agreement between FRS and QRS in 10-year overall cardiovascular risk stratification in disease-free individuals. Cross-sectional, observational, descriptive and analytical study in a convenience sample of 74 individuals attending the outpatient care service of a university hospital in Brazil between January 2014 and January 2015. After application of FRS and QRS, patients were classified in low/moderate risk (< 20%) or high risk (≥ 20%). The proportion of individuals classified as at high risk was higher in FRS than in QRS (33.7% vs 21.6%). A synergic effect of male gender with systemic arterial hypertension was observed in both tools, and with for geriatric age group in QRS (p < 0.05) in high-risk stratum. The Kappa index was 0.519 (95%CI = 0.386-0.652; p < 0.001) between both instruments. There was a moderate agreement between FRS and QRS in estimating 10-year overall cardiovascular risk. The risk scores used in this study can identify synergism between variables, and their behavior is influenced by the population in which it was derived. It is important to recognize the need for calibrating risk scores for the Brazilian population. A doença cardiovascular (DCV) é a principal causa de morbimortalidade no Brasil, e a prevenção primária pode ser direcionada com ferramentas que estratificam o risco. Os escores de Framingham (ERF) e QRISK-2 (ERQ) estimam o risco cardiovascular (RCV) global em 10 anos em indivíduos assintomáticos, mas a escolha do instrumento pode implicar em terapêuticas distintas. Observar o grau de concordância entre o ERF e o ERQ, na estratificação do

  3. Accurate cloud-based smart IMT measurement, its validation and stroke risk stratification in carotid ultrasound: A web-based point-of-care tool for multicenter clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Saba, Luca; Banchhor, Sumit K; Suri, Harman S; Londhe, Narendra D; Araki, Tadashi; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Viskovic, Klaudija; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Gupta, Ajay; Nicolaides, Andrew; Suri, Jasjit S

    2016-08-01

    This study presents AtheroCloud™ - a novel cloud-based smart carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) measurement tool using B-mode ultrasound for stroke/cardiovascular risk assessment and its stratification. This is an anytime-anywhere clinical tool for routine screening and multi-center clinical trials. In this pilot study, the physician can upload ultrasound scans in one of the following formats (DICOM, JPEG, BMP, PNG, GIF or TIFF) directly into the proprietary cloud of AtheroPoint from the local server of the physician's office. They can then run the intelligent and automated AtheroCloud™ cIMT measurements in point-of-care settings in less than five seconds per image, while saving the vascular reports in the cloud. We statistically benchmark AtheroCloud™ cIMT readings against sonographer (a registered vascular technologist) readings and manual measurements derived from the tracings of the radiologist. One hundred patients (75 M/25 F, mean age: 68±11 years), IRB approved, Toho University, Japan, consisted of Left/Right common carotid artery (CCA) artery (200 ultrasound scans), (Toshiba, Tokyo, Japan) were collected using a 7.5MHz transducer. The measured cIMTs for L/R carotid were as follows (in mm): (i) AtheroCloud™ (0.87±0.20, 0.77±0.20); (ii) sonographer (0.97±0.26, 0.89±0.29) and (iii) manual (0.90±0.20, 0.79±0.20), respectively. The coefficient of correlation (CC) between sonographer and manual for L/R cIMT was 0.74 (P<0.0001) and 0.65 (P<0.0001), while, between AtheroCloud™ and manual was 0.96 (P<0.0001) and 0.97 (P<0.0001), respectively. We observed that 91.15% of the population in AtheroCloud™ had a mean cIMT error less than 0.11mm compared to sonographer's 68.31%. The area under curve for receiving operating characteristics was 0.99 for AtheroCloud™ against 0.81 for sonographer. Our Framingham Risk Score stratified the population into three bins as follows: 39% in low-risk, 70.66% in medium-risk and 10.66% in high-risk bins

  4. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

    PubMed

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-04-15

    Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

  5. Stroke Risk Stratification and its Validation using Ultrasonic Echolucent Carotid Wall Plaque Morphology: A Machine Learning Paradigm.

    PubMed

    Araki, Tadashi; Jain, Pankaj K; Suri, Harman S; Londhe, Narendra D; Ikeda, Nobutaka; El-Baz, Ayman; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Gupta, Ajay; Suri, Jasjit S

    2017-01-01

    Stroke risk stratification based on grayscale morphology of the ultrasound carotid wall has recently been shown to have a promise in classification of high risk versus low risk plaque or symptomatic versus asymptomatic plaques. In previous studies, this stratification has been mainly based on analysis of the far wall of the carotid artery. Due to the multifocal nature of atherosclerotic disease, the plaque growth is not restricted to the far wall alone. This paper presents a new approach for stroke risk assessment by integrating assessment of both the near and far walls of the carotid artery using grayscale morphology of the plaque. Further, this paper presents a scientific validation system for stroke risk assessment. Both these innovations have never been presented before. The methodology consists of an automated segmentation system of the near wall and far wall regions in grayscale carotid B-mode ultrasound scans. Sixteen grayscale texture features are computed, and fed into the machine learning system. The training system utilizes the lumen diameter to create ground truth labels for the stratification of stroke risk. The cross-validation procedure is adapted in order to obtain the machine learning testing classification accuracy through the use of three sets of partition protocols: (5, 10, and Jack Knife). The mean classification accuracy over all the sets of partition protocols for the automated system in the far and near walls is 95.08% and 93.47%, respectively. The corresponding accuracies for the manual system are 94.06% and 92.02%, respectively. The precision of merit of the automated machine learning system when compared against manual risk assessment system are 98.05% and 97.53% for the far and near walls, respectively. The ROC of the risk assessment system for the far and near walls is close to 1.0 demonstrating high accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Overcoming intratumoural heterogeneity for reproducible molecular risk stratification: a case study in advanced kidney cancer.

    PubMed

    Lubbock, Alexander L R; Stewart, Grant D; O'Mahony, Fiach C; Laird, Alexander; Mullen, Peter; O'Donnell, Marie; Powles, Thomas; Harrison, David J; Overton, Ian M

    2017-06-26

    Metastatic clear cell renal cell cancer (mccRCC) portends a poor prognosis and urgently requires better clinical tools for prognostication as well as for prediction of response to treatment. Considerable investment in molecular risk stratification has sought to overcome the performance ceiling encountered by methods restricted to traditional clinical parameters. However, replication of results has proven challenging, and intratumoural heterogeneity (ITH) may confound attempts at tissue-based stratification. We investigated the influence of confounding ITH on the performance of a novel molecular prognostic model, enabled by pathologist-guided multiregion sampling (n = 183) of geographically separated mccRCC cohorts from the SuMR trial (development, n = 22) and the SCOTRRCC study (validation, n = 22). Tumour protein levels quantified by reverse phase protein array (RPPA) were investigated alongside clinical variables. Regularised wrapper selection identified features for Cox multivariate analysis with overall survival as the primary endpoint. The optimal subset of variables in the final stratification model consisted of N-cadherin, EPCAM, Age, mTOR (NEAT). Risk groups from NEAT had a markedly different prognosis in the validation cohort (log-rank p = 7.62 × 10 -7 ; hazard ratio (HR) 37.9, 95% confidence interval 4.1-353.8) and 2-year survival rates (accuracy = 82%, Matthews correlation coefficient = 0.62). Comparisons with established clinico-pathological scores suggest favourable performance for NEAT (Net reclassification improvement 7.1% vs International Metastatic Database Consortium score, 25.4% vs Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center score). Limitations include the relatively small cohorts and associated wide confidence intervals on predictive performance. Our multiregion sampling approach enabled investigation of NEAT validation when limiting the number of samples analysed per tumour, which significantly degraded performance

  7. Current approaches for risk stratification of infectious complications in pediatric oncology.

    PubMed

    Härtel, Christoph; Deuster, Maresa; Lehrnbecher, Thomas; Schultz, Christian

    2007-11-01

    Infections are serious complications of cytoreductive therapy in pediatric cancer patients presenting with febrile neutropenia. It is standard of care to initiate empirical intravenous broad-spectrum antibiotics until the fever and neutropenia resolve. However, it might be effective and safe to allow for early hospital discharge in certain subgroups of patients. Two strategies for risk stratification of pediatric cancer patients with regard to infectious complications are discussed in this review: (1) clinical risk parameters and laboratory measures to assist therapeutic management at presentation with fever in neutropenia, and (2) investigations of individual genetic susceptibility factors to tailor potential prophylactic approaches. Given the data available from a significant number of small studies, a large prospective non-inferiority trial is essential to assess low-risk clinical factors and additional laboratory or genetic markers for their predictive value. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  8. Which is the optimal risk stratification system for surgically treated localized primary GIST? Comparison of three contemporary prognostic criteria in 171 tumors and a proposal for a modified Armed Forces Institute of Pathology risk criteria.

    PubMed

    Goh, Brian K P; Chow, Pierce K H; Yap, Wai-Ming; Kesavan, Sittampalam M; Song, In-Chin; Paul, Pradeep G; Ooi, Boon-Swee; Chung, Yaw-Fui A; Wong, Wai-Keong

    2008-08-01

    This study aims to validate and compare the performance of the National Institute of Health (NIH) criteria, Huang modified NIH criteria, and Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) risk criteria for gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) in a large series of localized primary GISTs surgically treated at a single institution to determine the ideal risk stratification system for GIST. The clinicopathological features of 171 consecutive patients who underwent surgical resection for GISTs were retrospectively reviewed. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the prognostic value of the three risk criteria by analyzing the discriminatory ability linear trend, homogeneity, monotonicity of gradients, and Akaike information criteria. The median actuarial recurrence-free survival (RFS) for all 171 patients was 70%. On multivariate analyses, size >10 cm, mitotic count >5/50 high-power field, tumor necrosis, and serosal involvement were independent prognostic factors of RFS. All three risk criteria demonstrated a statistically significant difference in the recurrence rate, median actuarial RFS, actuarial 5-year RFS, and tumor-specific death across the different stages. Comparison of the various risk-stratification systems demonstrated that our proposed modified AFIP criteria had the best independent predictive value of RFS when compared with the other systems. The NIH, modified NIH, and AFIP criteria are useful in the prognostication of GIST, and the AFIP risk criteria provided the best prognostication among the three systems for primary localized GIST. However, remarkable prognostic heterogeneity exists in the AFIP high-risk category, and with our proposed modification, this system provides the most accurate prognostic information.

  9. Risk stratification and management of acute pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Becattini, Cecilia; Agnelli, Giancarlo

    2016-12-02

    The clinical management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism is rapidly changing over the years. The widening spectrum of clinical management strategies for these patients requires effective tools for risk stratification. Patients at low risk for death could be candidates for home treatment or early discharge. Clinical models with high negative predictive value have been validated that could be used to select patients at low risk for death. In a major study and in several meta-analyses, thrombolysis in hemodynamically stable patients was associated with unacceptably high risk for major bleeding complications or intracranial hemorrhage. Thus, the presence of shock or sustained hypotension continues to be the criterion for the selection of candidates for thrombolytic treatment. Interventional procedures for early revascularization should be reserved to selected patients until further evidence is available. No clinical advantage is expected with the insertion of a vena cava filter in the acute-phase management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism. Direct oral anticoagulants used in fixed doses without laboratory monitoring showed similar efficacy (odds ratio [OR], 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.12) and safety (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.77-1.03) in comparison with conventional anticoagulation in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. Based on these results and on their practicality, direct oral anticoagulants are the agents of choice for the treatment of the majority of patients with acute pulmonary embolism. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology. All rights reserved.

  10. Stratification of the Risk of Sudden Death in Nonischemic Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Pimentel, Maurício; Zimerman, Leandro Ioschpe; Rohde, Luis Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    Despite significant therapeutic advancements, heart failure remains a highly prevalent clinical condition associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In 30%-40% patients, the etiology of heart failure is nonischemic. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is capable of preventing sudden death and decreasing total mortality in patients with nonischemic heart failure. However, a significant number of patients receiving ICD do not receive any kind of therapy during follow-up. Moreover, considering the situation in Brazil and several other countries, ICD cannot be implanted in all patients with nonischemic heart failure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify patients at an increased risk of sudden death because these would benefit more than patients at a lower risk, despite the presence of heart failure in both risk groups. In this study, the authors review the primary available methods for the stratification of the risk of sudden death in patients with nonischemic heart failure. PMID:25352509

  11. Prognostic factors and risk stratification in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer receiving docetaxel-based chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, Shimpei; Kohjimoto, Yasuo; Iguchi, Takashi; Koike, Hiroyuki; Kusumoto, Hiroki; Iba, Akinori; Kikkawa, Kazuro; Kodama, Yoshiki; Matsumura, Nagahide; Hara, Isao

    2016-03-22

    While novel drugs have been developed, docetaxel remains one of the standard initial systemic therapies for castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) patients. Despite the excellent anti-tumor effect of docetaxel, its severe adverse effects sometimes distress patients. Therefore, it would be very helpful to predict the efficacy of docetaxel before treatment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the potential value of patient characteristics in predicting overall survival (OS) and to develop a risk classification for CRPC patients treated with docetaxel-based chemotherapy. This study included 79 patients with CRPC treated with docetaxel. The variables, including patient characteristics at diagnosis and at the start of chemotherapy, were retrospectively collected. Prognostic factors predicting OS were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Risk stratification for overall survival was determined based on the results of multivariate analysis. PSA response ≥50 % was observed in 55 (69.6 %) of all patients, and the median OS was 22.5 months. The multivariate analysis showed that age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were independent prognostic factors for OS. In addition, ECOG performance status (PS) and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant but were considered possible predictors for OS. Risk stratification according to the number of these risk factors could effectively stratify CRPC patients treated with docetaxel in terms of OS. Age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were identified as independent prognostic factors of OS. ECOG PS and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant, but were considered possible predictors for OS in Japanese CRPC patients treated with docetaxel. Risk stratification based on these factors could be helpful for estimating overall survival.

  12. An Interoperable System toward Cardiac Risk Stratification from ECG Monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Mora-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Ramos-López, Javier; Quintanilla Fernández, Teresa; García-García, Antonio; Díez-Mazuela, Daniel; García-Alberola, Arcadi

    2018-01-01

    Many indices have been proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification from electrocardiogram signal processing, still with limited use in clinical practice. We created a system integrating the clinical definition of cardiac risk subdomains from ECGs and the use of diverse signal processing techniques. Three subdomains were defined from the joint analysis of the technical and clinical viewpoints. One subdomain was devoted to demographic and clinical data. The other two subdomains were intended to obtain widely defined risk indices from ECG monitoring: a simple-domain (heart rate turbulence (HRT)), and a complex-domain (heart rate variability (HRV)). Data provided by the three subdomains allowed for the generation of alerts with different intensity and nature, as well as for the grouping and scrutinization of patients according to the established processing and risk-thresholding criteria. The implemented system was tested by connecting data from real-world in-hospital electronic health records and ECG monitoring by considering standards for syntactic (HL7 messages) and semantic interoperability (archetypes based on CEN/ISO EN13606 and SNOMED-CT). The system was able to provide risk indices and to generate alerts in the health records to support decision-making. Overall, the system allows for the agile interaction of research and clinical practice in the Holter-ECG-based cardiac risk domain. PMID:29494497

  13. Risk stratification for death and all-cause hospitalization in heart failure clinic outpatients.

    PubMed

    Hummel, Scott L; Ghalib, Hussam H; Ratz, David; Koelling, Todd M

    2013-11-01

    Most heart failure (HF) risk stratification models were developed for inpatient use, and available outpatient models use a complex set of variables. We hypothesized that routinely collected clinical data could predict the 6-month risk of death and all-cause medical hospitalization in HF clinic outpatients. Using a quality improvement database and multivariable Cox modeling, we derived the Heart Failure Patient Severity Index (HFPSI) in the University of Michigan HF clinic (UM cohort, n = 1,536; 314 reached primary outcome). We externally validated the HFPSI in the Ann Arbor Veterans' Affairs HF clinic (VA cohort, n = 445; 106 outcomes) and explored "real-time" HFPSI use (VA-RT cohort, n = 486; 141 outcomes) by tracking VA patients for 6 months from their most recently calculated HFPSI, rather than using an arbitrary start date for the cohort. The HFPSI model included blood urea nitrogen, B-type natriuretic peptide, New York Heart Association class, diabetes status, history of atrial fibrillation/flutter, and all-cause hospitalization within the prior 1 and 2 to 6 months. The concordance c statistics in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts were 0.71/0.68/0.74. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank testing demonstrated excellent risk stratification, particularly between a large, low-risk group (40% of patients, 6-month event rates in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts 8%/12%/12%) and a small, high-risk group (10% of patients, 6-month event rates in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts 57%/58%/79%). The HFPSI uses readily available data to predict the 6-month risk of death and/or all-cause medical hospitalization in HF clinic outpatients and could potentially help allocate specialized HF resources within health systems. © 2013.

  14. A Practical Risk Stratification Approach for Implementing a Primary Care Chronic Disease Management Program in an Underserved Community.

    PubMed

    Xu, Junjun; Williams-Livingston, Arletha; Gaglioti, Anne; McAllister, Calvin; Rust, George

    2018-01-01

    The use of value metrics is often dependent on payer-initiated health care management incentives. There is a need for practices to define and manage their own patient panels regardless of payer to participate effectively in population health management. A key step is to define a panel of primary care patients with high comorbidity profiles. Our sample included all patients seen in an urban academic family medicine clinic over a two-year period. The simplified risk stratification was built using internal electronic health record and billing system data based on ICD-9 codes. There were 347 patients classified as high-risk out of the 5,364 patient panel. Average age was 59 years (SD 15). Hypertension (90%), hyperlipidemia (62%), and depression (55%) were the most common conditions among high-risk patients. Simplified risk stratification provides a feasible option for our team to understand and respond to the nuances of population health in our underserved community.

  15. Derivation of genetic biomarkers for cancer risk stratification in Barrett's oesophagus: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Timmer, Margriet R.; Martinez, Pierre; Lau, Chiu T.; Westra, Wytske M.; Calpe, Silvia; Rygiel, Agnieszka M.; Rosmolen, Wilda D.; Meijer, Sybren L.; ten Kate, Fiebo J.W.; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G.W.; Mallant-Hent, Rosalie C.; Naber, Anton H.J.; van Oijen, Arnoud H.A.M.; Baak, Lubbertus C.; Scholten, Pieter; Böhmer, Clarisse J.M.; Fockens, Paul; Maley, Carlo C.; Graham, Trevor A.; Bergman, Jacques J.G.H.M.; Krishnadath, Kausilia K.

    2016-01-01

    Objective The risk of developing adenocarcinoma in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus is low and difficult to predict. Accurate tools for risk stratification are needed to increase the efficiency of surveillance. We aimed to develop a prediction model for progression using clinical variables and genetic markers. Methods In a prospective cohort of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus, we evaluated six molecular markers: p16, p53, Her-2/neu, 20q, MYC, and aneusomy by DNA fluorescence in situ hybridisation on brush cytology specimens. Primary study outcomes were the development of high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The most predictive clinical variables and markers were determined using Cox proportional-hazards models, receiver-operating-characteristic curves and a leave-one-out analysis. Results A total of 428 patients participated (345 men; median age 60 years) with a cumulative follow-up of 2019 patient-years (median 45 months per patient). Of these patients, 22 progressed; nine developed high-grade dysplasia and 13 oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The clinical variables, age and circumferential Barrett's length, and the markers, p16 loss, MYC gain, and aneusomy, were significantly associated with progression on univariate analysis. We defined an ‘Abnormal Marker Count’ that counted abnormalities in p16, MYC and aneusomy, which significantly improved risk prediction beyond using just age and Barrett's length. In multivariate analysis, these three factors identified a high-risk group with an 8.7-fold (95% CI, 2.6 to 29.8) increased hazard ratio compared with the low-risk group, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.86). Conclusion A prediction model based on age, Barrett's length, and the markers p16, MYC, and aneusomy determines progression risk in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus. PMID:26104750

  16. Advanced colorectal neoplasia risk stratification by penalized logistic regression.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yunzhi; Yu, Menggang; Wang, Sijian; Chappell, Richard; Imperiale, Thomas F

    2016-08-01

    Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. To facilitate the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening, there is a need to stratify risk for colorectal cancer among the 90% of US residents who are considered "average risk." In this article, we investigate such risk stratification rules for advanced colorectal neoplasia (colorectal cancer and advanced, precancerous polyps). We use a recently completed large cohort study of subjects who underwent a first screening colonoscopy. Logistic regression models have been used in the literature to estimate the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on quantifiable risk factors. However, logistic regression may be prone to overfitting and instability in variable selection. Since most of the risk factors in our study have several categories, it was tempting to collapse these categories into fewer risk groups. We propose a penalized logistic regression method that automatically and simultaneously selects variables, groups categories, and estimates their coefficients by penalizing the [Formula: see text]-norm of both the coefficients and their differences. Hence, it encourages sparsity in the categories, i.e. grouping of the categories, and sparsity in the variables, i.e. variable selection. We apply the penalized logistic regression method to our data. The important variables are selected, with close categories simultaneously grouped, by penalized regression models with and without the interactions terms. The models are validated with 10-fold cross-validation. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the penalized regression models dominate the receiver operating characteristic curve of naive logistic regressions, indicating a superior discriminative performance. © The Author(s) 2013.

  17. Risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score to guide decision-making in patients with suspected appendicitis.

    PubMed

    Scott, A J; Mason, S E; Arunakirinathan, M; Reissis, Y; Kinross, J M; Smith, J J

    2015-04-01

    Current management of suspected appendicitis is hampered by the overadmission of patients with non-specific abdominal pain and a significant negative exploration rate. The potential benefits of risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score to guide clinical decision-making were assessed. During this 50-week prospective observational study at one institution, the AIR score was calculated for all patients admitted with suspected appendicitis. Appendicitis was diagnosed by histological examination, and patients were classified as having non-appendicitis pain if histological findings were negative or surgery was not performed. The diagnostic performance of the AIR score and the potential for risk stratification to reduce admissions, optimize imaging and prevent unnecessary explorations were quantified. A total of 464 patients were included, of whom 210 (63·3 per cent) with non-appendicitis pain were correctly classified as low risk. However, 13 low-risk patients had appendicitis. Low-risk patients accounted for 48·1 per cent of admissions (223 of 464), 57 per cent of negative explorations (48 of 84) and 50·7 per cent of imaging requests (149 of 294). An AIR score of 5 or more (intermediate and high risk) had high sensitivity for all severities of appendicitis (90 per cent) and also for advanced appendicitis (98 per cent). An AIR score of 9 or more (high risk) was very specific (97 per cent) for appendicitis, and the majority of patients with appendicitis in the high-risk group (21 of 30, 70 per cent) had perforation or gangrene. Ultrasound imaging could not exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative likelihood ratio (LR) 1·0) but could rule-in the diagnosis in intermediate-risk patients (positive LR 10·2). CT could exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative LR 0·0) and rule-in appendicitis in the intermediate group (positive LR 10·9). Risk stratification of patients with suspected appendicitis by the AIR score could

  18. Risk Stratification in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Calkins, Hugh; Corrado, Domenico; Marcus, Frank

    2017-11-21

    Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is an inherited cardiomyopathy characterized by ventricular arrhythmias and an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. Although structural abnormalities of the right ventricle predominate, it is well recognized that left ventricular involvement is common, particularly in advanced disease, and that left-dominant forms occur. The pathological characteristic of ARVC is myocyte loss with fibrofatty replacement. Since the first detailed clinical description of the disorder in 1982, significant advances have been made in understanding this disease. Once the diagnosis of ARVC is established, the single most important clinical decision is whether a particular patient's sudden cardiac death risk is sufficient to justify placement of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. The importance of this decision reflects the fact that ARVC is a common cause of sudden death in young people and that sudden death may be the first manifestation of the disease. This decision is particularly important because these are often young patients who are expected to live for many years. Although an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator can save lives in individuals with this disease, it is also well recognized that implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy is associated with both short- and long-term complications. Decisions about the placement of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator are based on an estimate of a patient's risk of sudden cardiac death, as well as their preferences and values. The primary purpose of this article is to provide a review of the literature that concerns risk stratification in patients with ARVC and to place this literature in the framework of the 3 authors' considerable lifetime experiences in caring for patients with ARVC. The most important parameters to consider when determining arrhythmic risk include electric instability, including the frequency of premature ventricular contractions and

  19. Noninvasive Computed Tomography-based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial.

    PubMed

    Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

    2015-09-15

    Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas.

  20. Neuroblastoma: clinical and biological approach to risk stratification and treatment.

    PubMed

    Tolbert, Vanessa P; Matthay, Katherine K

    2018-05-01

    Neuroblastoma is the most common extra-cranial solid tumor of childhood and the most common in the first year of life. It is a unique malignancy in that infants often present with either localized or metastatic disease that can spontaneously regress without intervention while older children can succumb to the disease after months to years of arduous therapy. Given this wide range of outcomes, the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group was created to stratify patients based on presenting characteristics and tumor biology in order to guide intensity of treatment strategies. The goal has been to decrease therapy for low-risk patients to avoid long-term complications while augmenting and targeting therapies for high-risk patients to improve overall survival. The international risk stratification depends on age, stage, histology, MYCN gene amplification status, tumor cell ploidy and segmental chromosomal abnormalities. Treatment for asymptomatic low-risk patients with an estimated survival of > 98% is often observation or surgical resection alone, whereas intermediate-risk patients with an estimated survival of > 90% require moderate doses of response-adjusted chemotherapy along with resection. High-risk patients undergo multiple cycles of combination chemotherapy before surgery, followed by consolidation with myeloablative autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and local radiation and finally immunotherapy with differentiation therapy as maintenance phase. With this approach, outcome for patients with neuroblastoma has improved, as the field continues to expand efforts in more targeted therapies for high-risk patients.

  1. Speckle-Tracking Echocardiography Improves Pre-operative Risk Stratification Before the Total Cavopulmonary Connection.

    PubMed

    Park, Patsy W; Atz, Andrew M; Taylor, Carolyn L; Chowdhury, Shahryar M

    2017-05-01

    Single-ventricle patients with elevated pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) or end-diastolic pressure (EDP) are excluded from undergoing total cavopulmonary connection (TCPC). However, a subset of patients deemed to be at acceptable risk experience prolonged length of stay (LOS) after TCPC. Routine assessment of ventricular function has been inadequate in identifying these high-risk patients. Speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) is a novel method for assessment of myocardial deformation that may be useful in single-ventricle patients. The aim of this study was to perform a contemporary preoperative risk assessment for prolonged LOS to determine whether STE improves risk stratification before TCPC. Our single institution's perioperative data were retrospectively collected. The primary outcome was postoperative LOS >14 days. Longitudinal and circumferential STE deformation measures were analyzed on echocardiograms obtained during preoperative catheterization. Patient-specific, echocardiographic, and catheterization data were included in multivariable logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic area under the curves (AUC) were analyzed. From 2007 to 2014, 135 patients who underwent TCPC were included in the analysis. The median LOS was 11 (IQR 9-14) days. The PVR (P < .01) and circumferential strain rate (CSR) (P < .01) were the only variables independently associated with LOS >14 days. For every 0.1 s -1 CSR increased, there was a 20% increased odds of prolonged LOS. The AUC for CSR was 0.70. The AUC for PVR and EDP combined was 0.68. The AUC for PVR, EDP, and CSR combined was 0.73. Preoperative CSR is independently associated with LOS >14 days and improves preoperative risk stratification in patients undergoing TCPC. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Voss, Andreas; Fischer, Claudia; Schroeder, Rico; Figulla, Hans R; Goernig, Matthias

    2012-07-01

    The objectives of this study were to introduce a new type of heart-rate variability analysis improving risk stratification in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and to provide additional information about impaired heart beat generation in these patients. Beat-to-beat intervals (BBI) of 30-min ECGs recorded from 91 DCM patients and 21 healthy subjects were analyzed applying the lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis (LSPPA) method. LSPPA includes the Poincaré plot reconstruction with lags of 1-100, rotating the cloud of points, its normalized segmentation adapted to their standard deviations, and finally, a frequency-dependent clustering. The lags were combined into eight different clusters representing specific frequency bands within 0.012-1.153 Hz. Statistical differences between low- and high-risk DCM could be found within the clusters II-VIII (e.g., cluster IV: 0.033-0.038 Hz; p = 0.0002; sensitivity = 85.7 %; specificity = 71.4 %). The multivariate statistics led to a sensitivity of 92.9 %, specificity of 85.7 % and an area under the curve of 92.1 % discriminating these patient groups. We introduced the LSPPA method to investigate time correlations in BBI time series. We found that LSPPA contributes considerably to risk stratification in DCM and yields the highest discriminant power in the low and very low-frequency bands.

  3. [Syncope and work: role of the occupational physician and global risk stratification].

    PubMed

    Barbic, F; Angaroni, L; Orlandi, M; Costantino, G; Dipaola, E; Borleri, D; Borchini, R; D'Adda, F; Perego, F; Borella, M; Galli, A; Solbiati, M; Scanella, E; Casazza, G; Seghizzi, P; Furlan, R

    2011-01-01

    Safety risk for subjects suffering from syncope while working has not been as yet addressed by occupational medicine. The present study was aimed at evaluating a new developed methodology for job tasks risk stratification in patients with syncope. During a work-shop on syncope and occupational risk, 149 occupational physicians (OP) with about 10 years of clinical experience were asked to fulfil a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) concerning the doctor's estimated potential damage (D) to the worker and the probability of a damage to occur (P) should syncope take place during the job task. Five job tasks characterized by different risk for safety (1, driving; 2, toxic products handling; 3, job performed closed to hot surfaces o free flames; 4, surgical activity; 5, office job) were identified. OP correctly stratified the risk associated to the different job tasks in patients with syncope. Unexpectedly, task #3 was given a risk similar to that obtained in drivers. This might be of paramount clinical and social importance when patients with syncope have to return to their job tasks.

  4. A new risk stratification algorithm for the management of patients with adrenal incidentalomas.

    PubMed

    Birsen, Onur; Akyuz, Muhammet; Dural, Cem; Aksoy, Erol; Aliyev, Shamil; Mitchell, Jamie; Siperstein, Allan; Berber, Eren

    2014-10-01

    Although adrenal incidentalomas (AI) are detected in ≤5% of patients undergoing chest and abdominal computed tomography (CT), their management is challenging. The current guidelines include recommendations from the National Institutes of Health, the American Association of Endocrine Surgeons (AAES), and the American Association for Cancer Education (AACE). The aim of this study was to develop a new risk stratification model and compare its performance against the existing guidelines for managing AI. A risk stratification model was designed by assigning points for adrenal size (1, 2, or 3 points for tumors <4, 4-6, or >6 cm, respectively) and Hounsfield unit (HU) density on noncontrast CT (1, 2, or 3 points for HU <10, 10-20, or >20, respectively). This model was applied retrospectively to 157 patients with AI managed in an endocrine surgery clinic to assign a score to each tumor. The utility of this model versus the AAES/AACE guidelines was assessed. Of the 157 patients, 54 (34%), had tumors <4 cm with HU <10 (a score of 2). One third of these were hormonally active on biochemical workup and underwent adrenalectomy. The remaining two thirds were nonsecretory lesions and have been followed conservatively with annual testing. In 103 patients (66%), the adrenal mass was >4 cm and/or had indeterminate features on noncontrast CT (HU >10, irregular borders, heterogeneity), and adrenalectomy was performed after hormonal evaluation was completed (10 were hormonally active on biochemical testing). Seven of these patients (7%) had adrenocortical cancer on final pathology with tumor size <4 cm in 0, 4-6 cm in 1, and >6 cm in 5 patients. Of the hormonally inactive patients, 32% had a score of 3, 38% 4, and 30% 5 or 6. The incidence of adrenocortical cancer in these subgroups was 0, 0, and 25%, respectively. This study shows that an algorithm that utilizes the hormonal activity at the first decision step followed by a consolidated risk stratification, based on tumor

  5. Development of a Bayesian Classifier for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: A Feasibility Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-03-29

    IV 0 2 10 23 BIRADS V 0 1 2 1 No mammogram 116 94 55 45 Breast biopsy category .4076 Benign, no atypia 19 12 27 34 Premalignant 1 0 2 4 Infiltrating... breast EIS result∗ Estimated outcome, % Known evidence Biopsy category EIS Gail Benign, no Infiltrating cancer Case frequency, % result cutoff‘ atypia or...Development of a Bayesian Classifier for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: A Feasibility Study Alexander Stojadinovic, MD,a,b Christina Eberhardt,a

  6. Evidence-based Guidelines for Precision Risk Stratification-Based Screening (PRSBS) for Colorectal Cancer: Lessons learned from the US Armed Forces: Consensus and Future Directions

    PubMed Central

    Avital, Itzhak; Langan, Russell C.; Summers, Thomas A.; Steele, Scott R.; Waldman, Scott A.; Backman, Vadim; Yee, Judy; Nissan, Aviram; Young, Patrick; Womeldorph, Craig; Mancusco, Paul; Mueller, Renee; Noto, Khristian; Grundfest, Warren; Bilchik, Anton J.; Protic, Mladjan; Daumer, Martin; Eberhardt, John; Man, Yan Gao; Brücher, Björn LDM; Stojadinovic, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related death in the United States (U.S.), with estimates of 143,460 new cases and 51,690 deaths for the year 2012. Numerous organizations have published guidelines for CRC screening; however, these numerical estimates of incidence and disease-specific mortality have remained stable from years prior. Technological, genetic profiling, molecular and surgical advances in our modern era should allow us to improve risk stratification of patients with CRC and identify those who may benefit from preventive measures, early aggressive treatment, alternative treatment strategies, and/or frequent surveillance for the early detection of disease recurrence. To better negotiate future economic constraints and enhance patient outcomes, ultimately, we propose to apply the principals of personalized and precise cancer care to risk-stratify patients for CRC screening (Precision Risk Stratification-Based Screening, PRSBS). We believe that genetic, molecular, ethnic and socioeconomic disparities impact oncological outcomes in general, those related to CRC, in particular. This document highlights evidence-based screening recommendations and risk stratification methods in response to our CRC working group private-public consensus meeting held in March 2012. Our aim was to address how we could improve CRC risk stratification-based screening, and to provide a vision for the future to achieving superior survival rates for patients diagnosed with CRC. PMID:23459409

  7. Noninvasive Computed Tomography–based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial

    PubMed Central

    Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M.; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A.; Bartholmai, Brian J.

    2015-01-01

    Rationale: Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. Objectives: To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. Methods: We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. Conclusions: CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas. PMID:26052977

  8. Impact of self-reported fasting duration on lipid profile variability, cardiovascular risk stratification and metabolic syndrome diagnosis.

    PubMed

    Janovsky, Carolina Castro Porto Silva; Laurinavicius, Antonio; Cesena, Fernando; Valente, Viviane; Ferreira, Carlos Eduardo; Mangueira, Cristovão; Conceição, Raquel; Santos, Raul D; Bittencourt, Marcio Sommer

    2018-01-01

    We sought to investigate the impact of self-reported fasting duration times on the lipid profile results and its impact on the cardiovascular risk stratification and metabolic syndrome diagnosis. We analyzed data from all consecutive individuals evaluated in a comprehensive health examination at the Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein from January to December 2015. We divided these patients in three groups, according to the fasting duration recalled (< 8h, 8-12h and > 12h). We calculated the global cardiovascular risk and diagnosed metabolic syndrome according to the current criteria and estimated their change according to fasting duration. A total of 12,196 (42.3 ± 9.2 years-old, 30.2% females) patients were evaluated. The distribution of cardiovascular risk was not different among groups defined by fasting duration in both men and women (p = 0.547 for women and p = 0.329 for men). Similarly, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was not influenced by the fasting duration (p = 0.431 for women and p = 0.166 for men). Self-reported fasting duration had no significant impact on the lipid profile results, including triglyceride levels. Consequently, no changes on the cardiovascular risk stratification using the Framingham risk score nor changes on the prevalence of metabolic syndrome were noted.

  9. Novel Molecular Imaging Approaches to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Toczek, Jakub; Meadows, Judith L.; Sadeghi, Mehran M.

    2015-01-01

    Selection of patients for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is currently based on aneurysm size, growth rate and symptoms. Molecular imaging of biological processes associated with aneurysm growth and rupture, e.g., inflammation and matrix remodeling, could improve patient risk stratification and lead to a reduction in AAA morbidity and mortality. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) and ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) magnetic resonance imaging are two novel approaches to AAA imaging evaluated in clinical trials. A variety of other tracers, including those that target inflammatory cells and proteolytic enzymes (e.g., integrin αvβ3 and matrix metalloproteinases), have proven effective in preclinical models of AAA and show great potential for clinical translation. PMID:26763279

  10. Accurate and robust genomic prediction of celiac disease using statistical learning.

    PubMed

    Abraham, Gad; Tye-Din, Jason A; Bhalala, Oneil G; Kowalczyk, Adam; Zobel, Justin; Inouye, Michael

    2014-02-01

    Practical application of genomic-based risk stratification to clinical diagnosis is appealing yet performance varies widely depending on the disease and genomic risk score (GRS) method. Celiac disease (CD), a common immune-mediated illness, is strongly genetically determined and requires specific HLA haplotypes. HLA testing can exclude diagnosis but has low specificity, providing little information suitable for clinical risk stratification. Using six European cohorts, we provide a proof-of-concept that statistical learning approaches which simultaneously model all SNPs can generate robust and highly accurate predictive models of CD based on genome-wide SNP profiles. The high predictive capacity replicated both in cross-validation within each cohort (AUC of 0.87-0.89) and in independent replication across cohorts (AUC of 0.86-0.9), despite differences in ethnicity. The models explained 30-35% of disease variance and up to ∼43% of heritability. The GRS's utility was assessed in different clinically relevant settings. Comparable to HLA typing, the GRS can be used to identify individuals without CD with ≥99.6% negative predictive value however, unlike HLA typing, fine-scale stratification of individuals into categories of higher-risk for CD can identify those that would benefit from more invasive and costly definitive testing. The GRS is flexible and its performance can be adapted to the clinical situation by adjusting the threshold cut-off. Despite explaining a minority of disease heritability, our findings indicate a genomic risk score provides clinically relevant information to improve upon current diagnostic pathways for CD and support further studies evaluating the clinical utility of this approach in CD and other complex diseases.

  11. Derivation of genetic biomarkers for cancer risk stratification in Barrett's oesophagus: a prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Timmer, Margriet R; Martinez, Pierre; Lau, Chiu T; Westra, Wytske M; Calpe, Silvia; Rygiel, Agnieszka M; Rosmolen, Wilda D; Meijer, Sybren L; Ten Kate, Fiebo J W; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G W; Mallant-Hent, Rosalie C; Naber, Anton H J; van Oijen, Arnoud H A M; Baak, Lubbertus C; Scholten, Pieter; Böhmer, Clarisse J M; Fockens, Paul; Maley, Carlo C; Graham, Trevor A; Bergman, Jacques J G H M; Krishnadath, Kausilia K

    2016-10-01

    The risk of developing adenocarcinoma in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus is low and difficult to predict. Accurate tools for risk stratification are needed to increase the efficiency of surveillance. We aimed to develop a prediction model for progression using clinical variables and genetic markers. In a prospective cohort of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus, we evaluated six molecular markers: p16, p53, Her-2/neu, 20q, MYC and aneusomy by DNA fluorescence in situ hybridisation on brush cytology specimens. Primary study outcomes were the development of high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The most predictive clinical variables and markers were determined using Cox proportional-hazards models, receiver operating characteristic curves and a leave-one-out analysis. A total of 428 patients participated (345 men; median age 60 years) with a cumulative follow-up of 2019 patient-years (median 45 months per patient). Of these patients, 22 progressed; nine developed high-grade dysplasia and 13 oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The clinical variables, age and circumferential Barrett's length, and the markers, p16 loss, MYC gain and aneusomy, were significantly associated with progression on univariate analysis. We defined an 'Abnormal Marker Count' that counted abnormalities in p16, MYC and aneusomy, which significantly improved risk prediction beyond using just age and Barrett's length. In multivariate analysis, these three factors identified a high-risk group with an 8.7-fold (95% CI 2.6 to 29.8) increased HR when compared with the low-risk group, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.86). A prediction model based on age, Barrett's length and the markers p16, MYC and aneusomy determines progression risk in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  12. Computational cardiology and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: one of the grand challenges for cardiology in the 21st century

    PubMed Central

    Perry, Matthew D.; Abi‐Gerges, Najah; Couderc, Jean‐Philippe; Fermini, Bernard; Hancox, Jules C.; Knollmann, Bjorn C.; Mirams, Gary R.; Skinner, Jon; Zareba, Wojciech; Vandenberg, Jamie I.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Risk stratification in the context of sudden cardiac death has been acknowledged as one of the major challenges facing cardiology for the past four decades. In recent years, the advent of high performance computing has facilitated organ‐level simulation of the heart, meaning we can now examine the causes, mechanisms and impact of cardiac dysfunction in silico. As a result, computational cardiology, largely driven by the Physiome project, now stands at the threshold of clinical utility in regards to risk stratification and treatment of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. In this white paper, we outline a roadmap of what needs to be done to make this translational step, using the relatively well‐developed case of acquired or drug‐induced long QT syndrome as an exemplar case. PMID:27060987

  13. Electrophysiologic profile and results of invasive risk stratification in asymptomatic children and adolescents with the Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern.

    PubMed

    Kubuš, Peter; Vít, Pavel; Gebauer, Roman A; Materna, Ondřej; Janoušek, Jan

    2014-04-01

    Data on the results and clinical effect of an invasive risk stratification strategy in asymptomatic young patients with the Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern are scarce. Eighty-five consecutive patients aged<18 years with a Wolff-Parkinson-White pattern and persistent preexcitation at maximum exercise undergoing invasive risk stratification were retrospectively studied. Adverse accessory pathway (AP) properties were defined according to currently consented criteria as any of the following: shortest preexcited RR interval during atrial fibrillation/rapid atrial pacing≤250 ms (or antegrade effective refractory period≤250 ms if shortest preexcited RR interval was not available) or inducible atrioventricular re-entrant tachycardia. Age at evaluation was median 14.9 years. Eighty-two patients had a structurally normal heart and 3 had hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. A single manifest AP was present in 80, 1 manifest and 1 concealed AP in 4, and 2 manifest APs in 1 patient. Adverse AP properties were present in 32 of 85 patients (37.6%) at baseline and in additional 16 of 44 (36.4%) after isoproterenol. Ablation was performed in 41 of these 48 patients. Ablation was deferred in the remaining 7 for pathway proximity to the atrioventricular node. In addition, 18 of the low-risk patients were ablated based on patient/parental decision. Adverse AP properties at baseline were exhibited by 37.6% of the evaluated patients with an asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White preexcitation persisting at peak exercise. Isoproterenol challenge yielded additional 36.4% of those tested at higher risk. Ablation was performed in a total of 69.4% of patients subjected to invasive risk stratification.

  14. Risk stratification using SpO2/FiO2 and PEEP at initial ARDS diagnosis and after 24 h in patients with moderate or severe ARDS.

    PubMed

    Pisani, Luigi; Roozeman, Jan-Paul; Simonis, Fabienne D; Giangregorio, Antonio; van der Hoeven, Sophia M; Schouten, Laura R; Horn, Janneke; Neto, Ary Serpa; Festic, Emir; Dondorp, Arjen M; Grasso, Salvatore; Bos, Lieuwe D; Schultz, Marcus J

    2017-10-25

    We assessed the potential of risk stratification of ARDS patients using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) at ARDS onset and after 24 h. We used data from a prospective observational study in patients admitted to a mixed medical-surgical intensive care unit of a university hospital in the Netherlands. Risk stratification was by cutoffs for SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Patients with moderate or severe ARDS with a length of stay of > 24 h were included in this study. Patients were assigned to four predefined risk groups: group I (SpO 2 /FiO 2  ≥ 190 and PEEP < 10 cm H 2 O), group II (SpO 2 /FiO 2  ≥ 190 and PEEP ≥ 10 cm), group III (SpO 2 /FiO 2  < 190 and PEEP < 10 cm H 2 O) and group IV (SpO 2 /FiO 2  < 190 and PEEP ≥ 10 cm H 2 O). The analysis included 456 patients. SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PaO 2 /FiO 2 had a strong relationship (P < 0.001, R 2  = 0.676) that could be described in a linear regression equation (SpO 2 /FiO 2  = 42.6 + 1.0 * PaO 2 /FiO 2 ). Risk stratification at initial ARDS diagnosis resulted in groups that had no differences in in-hospital mortality. Risk stratification at 24 h resulted in groups with increasing mortality rates. The association between group assignment at 24 h and outcome was confounded by several factors, including APACHE IV scores, arterial pH and plasma lactate levels, and vasopressor therapy. In this cohort of patients with moderate or severe ARDS, SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PaO 2 /FiO 2 have a strong linear relationship. In contrast to risk stratification at initial ARDS diagnosis, risk stratification using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP after 24 h resulted in groups with worsening outcomes. Risk stratification using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP could be practical, especially in resource-limited settings.

  15. Electrocardiologic and related methods of non-invasive detection and risk stratification in myocardial ischemia: state of the art and perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Huebner, Thomas; Goernig, Matthias; Schuepbach, Michael; Sanz, Ernst; Pilgram, Roland; Seeck, Andrea; Voss, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    Background: Electrocardiographic methods still provide the bulk of cardiovascular diagnostics. Cardiac ischemia is associated with typical alterations in cardiac biosignals that have to be measured, analyzed by mathematical algorithms and allegorized for further clinical diagnostics. The fast growing fields of biomedical engineering and applied sciences are intensely focused on generating new approaches to cardiac biosignal analysis for diagnosis and risk stratification in myocardial ischemia. Objectives: To present and review the state of the art in and new approaches to electrocardiologic methods for non-invasive detection and risk stratification in coronary artery disease (CAD) and myocardial ischemia; secondarily, to explore the future perspectives of these methods. Methods: In follow-up to the Expert Discussion at the 2008 Workshop on "Biosignal Analysis" of the German Society of Biomedical Engineering in Potsdam, Germany, we comprehensively searched the pertinent literature and databases and compiled the results into this review. Then, we categorized the state-of-the-art methods and selected new approaches based on their applications in detection and risk stratification of myocardial ischemia. Finally, we compared the pros and cons of the methods and explored their future potentials for cardiology. Results: Resting ECG, particularly suited for detecting ST-elevation myocardial infarctions, and exercise ECG, for the diagnosis of stable CAD, are state-of-the-art methods. New exercise-free methods for detecting stable CAD include cardiogoniometry (CGM); methods for detecting acute coronary syndrome without ST elevation are Body Surface Potential Mapping, functional imaging and CGM. Heart rate variability and blood pressure variability analyses, microvolt T-wave alternans and signal-averaged ECG mainly serve in detecting and stratifying the risk for lethal arrythmias in patients with myocardial ischemia or previous myocardial infarctions. Telemedicine and ambient

  16. Major bleeding events and risk stratification of antithrombotic agents in hemodialysis: Results from the DOPPS

    PubMed Central

    Sood, Manish M.; Larkina, Maria; Thumma, Jyothi R.; Tentori, Francesca; Gillespie, Brenda W.; Fukuhara, Shunichi; Mendelssohn, David C.; Chan, Kevin; de Sequera, Patricia; Komenda, Paul; Rigatto, Claudio; Robinson, Bruce M.

    2013-01-01

    Benefits and risks of antithrombotic agents remain unclear in the hemodialysis population. We aimed to determine variation in antithrombotic agent use, rates of major bleeding events, and to determine factors predictive of stroke and bleeding to allow for risk stratification, enabling more rational decisions about using antithrombotic agents. The sample included 48,144 patients in 12 countries in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study Phase I–IV. Antithrombotic agents included oral anticoagulants (OAC), ASA and anti-platelet agents (APA). OAC prescription, comorbidities and vascular access were assessed at study entry; data on clinical events including hospitalization due to bleeding were collected every four months during follow-up. There was wide variation in OAC (0.3–18%), APA (3–25%) and ASA use (8–36%), and major bleeding rates (0.05–0.22 events/year) among countries. Rates of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and bleeding events requiring hospitalization were elevated in patients prescribed OAC across adjusted models. The CHADS2 score predicted the risk of stroke in atrial fibrillation patients. Gastrointestinal bleeding in the past 12 months was highly predictive of major bleeding events; for patients with previous gastrointestinal bleeding, the rate of bleeding exceeded the rate of stroke by at least 2-fold across categories of CHADS2 score. Prescription of antithrombotic agents varied greatly. The CHADS2 score and a history of gastrointestinal bleeding were predictive of stroke and bleeding events, respectively, with bleeding rates substantially exceeding stroke rates in all groups including patients at high stroke risk. Appropriate risk stratification and a cautious approach should be considered before OAC use in the dialysis population. PMID:23677245

  17. Delayed risk stratification, to include the response to initial treatment (surgery and radioiodine ablation), has better outcome predictivity in differentiated thyroid cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Castagna, Maria Grazia; Maino, Fabio; Cipri, Claudia; Belardini, Valentina; Theodoropoulou, Alexandra; Cevenini, Gabriele; Pacini, Furio

    2011-09-01

    After initial treatment, differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients are stratified as low and high risk based on clinical/pathological features. Recently, a risk stratification based on additional clinical data accumulated during follow-up has been proposed. To evaluate the predictive value of delayed risk stratification (DRS) obtained at the time of the first diagnostic control (8-12 months after initial treatment). We reviewed 512 patients with DTC whose risk assessment was initially defined according to the American (ATA) and European Thyroid Association (ETA) guidelines. At the time of the first control, 8-12 months after initial treatment, patients were re-stratified according to their clinical status: DRS. Using DRS, about 50% of ATA/ETA intermediate/high-risk patients moved to DRS low-risk category, while about 10% of ATA/ETA low-risk patients moved to DRS high-risk category. The ability of the DRS to predict the final outcome was superior to that of ATA and ETA. Positive and negative predictive values for both ATA (39.2 and 90.6% respectively) and ETA (38.4 and 91.3% respectively) were significantly lower than that observed with the DRS (72.8 and 96.3% respectively, P<0.05). The observed variance in predicting final outcome was 25.4% for ATA, 19.1% for ETA, and 62.1% for DRS. Delaying the risk stratification of DTC patients at a time when the response to surgery and radioiodine ablation is evident allows to better define individual risk and to better modulate the subsequent follow-up.

  18. Risk stratification personalised model for prediction of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias in patients with chronic heart failure.

    PubMed

    Frolov, Alexander Vladimirovich; Vaikhanskaya, Tatjana Gennadjevna; Melnikova, Olga Petrovna; Vorobiev, Anatoly Pavlovich; Guel, Ludmila Michajlovna

    2017-01-01

    The development of prognostic factors of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VTA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) continues to maintain its priority and relevance in cardiology. The development of a method of personalised prognosis based on multifactorial analysis of the risk factors associated with life-threatening heart rhythm disturbances is considered a key research and clinical task. To design a prognostic and mathematical model to define personalised risk for life-threatening VTA in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The study included 240 patients with CHF (mean-age of 50.5 ± 12.1 years; left ventricular ejection fraction 32.8 ± 10.9%; follow-up period 36.8 ± 5.7 months). The participants received basic therapy for heart failure. The elec-trocardiogram (ECG) markers of myocardial electrical instability were assessed including microvolt T-wave alternans, heart rate turbulence, heart rate deceleration, and QT dispersion. Additionally, echocardiography and Holter monitoring (HM) were performed. The cardiovascular events were considered as primary endpoints, including SCD, paroxysmal ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) based on HM-ECG data, and data obtained from implantable device interrogation (CRT-D, ICD) as well as appropriated shocks. During the follow-up period, 66 (27.5%) subjects with CHF showed adverse arrhythmic events, including nine SCD events and 57 VTAs. Data from a stepwise discriminant analysis of cumulative ECG-markers of myocardial electrical instability were used to make a mathematical model of preliminary VTA risk stratification. Uni- and multivariate Cox logistic regression analysis were performed to define an individualised risk stratification model of SCD/VTA. A binary logistic regression model demonstrated a high prognostic significance of discriminant function with a classification sensitivity of 80.8% and specificity of 99.1% (F = 31.2; c2 = 143.2; p < 0.0001). The method of personalised risk

  19. [Sports medical aspects in cardiac risk stratification--heart rate variability and exercise capacity].

    PubMed

    Banzer, W; Lucki, K; Bürklein, M; Rosenhagen, A; Vogt, L

    2006-12-01

    The present study investigates the association of the predicted CHD-risk (PROCAM) with the individual endurance capacity and heart rate variability (HRV) in a population-based sample of sedentary elderly. After stratification, in 57 men (48.1+/-9.5 yrs.) with an overall PROCAM-risk <10% (28.7+/-10.9 points) and 22 men (54.5+/-7.7 yrs.) with a coronary 10-year risk > or =10% (50.8+/-5.6 points) cycle ergometries and short-term HRV analysis of time (RRMEAN, SDNN, RMSSD) and frequency domain parameters (LF, HF, TP, LF/HF) were conducted. Additionally the autonomic stress index (SI) was calculated. Nonparametric tests were used for statistical correlation analysis (Spearman rho) and group comparisons (Mann-Whitney). For endurance capacity [W/kg] (r=-0.469, p<0.001), SDNN (r=-0.302, p<0.05), RMSSD (r= -0.311, p<0.05), LF (r=-0.325, p<0.05), HF (r= -0.311, p<0.05) and TP (r= -0.307, p<0.05) negative monotone correlations with the coronary score-risk were determined. Significant positive correlations were calculated for SI (r=0.476, p<0.001). Except for RRMEAN and LF/HF significant group differences (p<0.05) were computed for SDNN (30.0+/-20.0 vs 20.0+/-10.0 ms), RMSSD (22.2+/-18.3 vs 18.0+/-8.7 ms), LF (90.9+/-241.5 vs 41.35+/-81.1 ms(2)), HF (43.0+/-105.1 vs 18.0+/-27.0 ms(2)) and TP (189.0+/-457.1 vs 100.0+/-157.6 ms(2)). Significant differences (p<0.01) were evaluated for exercise capacity (2.4+/-0.5 vs 1.8+/-0.3 W/kg) and SI (90+/-183 vs 322+/-291). The results underline the predictive value of HRV analysis in risk stratification and outline the interrelation of a decreased exercise capacity and autonomic function with a raised individual 10-year cardiac risk. As an independent parameter of the vegetative regulatory state the stress index may contribute to an increased practical relevance of short-time HRV analysis.

  20. The physical phenotype of frailty for risk stratification of older medical inpatients.

    PubMed

    Forti, P; Maioli, F; Zagni, E; Lucassenn, T; Montanari, L; Maltoni, B; Luca Pirazzoli, G; Bianchi, G; Zoli, M

    2014-12-01

    To determine the usefulness of physical phenotype of frailty, cognitive impairment, and serum albumin for risk stratification of elderly medical impatients. Prospective, observational cohort study. A general internal medicine unit of a university hospital in Italy. Inpatients with an average age of 80.8 ± 7.5 yr (N = 470). Frailty was defined using the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures Index, a parsimonious version of the physical phenotype (two of the following markers: weight loss, inability to rise five times from a chair, and exhaustion). Two frailty markers from non-physical dimensions were also evaluated: cognitive impairment (Mini-Cog score < 3) and low serum albumin on ward admission (< 3,5 gr/dl). Logistic regression adjusted for preadmission and admission-related confounders was used to investigate whether the physical phenotype of frailty and the two non-physical markers were associated with ward length of stay and unfavorable discharge (death plus any other ward discharge disposition different from direct return home). Areas Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUCs) and Likelihood Ratios (LRs) were used for evaluation of discriminatory ability and clinical usefulness of significant predictors. The physical phenotype of frailty was associated with both study outcomes (p < 0.010) but the association was mainly mediated by chair standing ability. Non-physical markers were associated only with unfavourable discharge (p < 0.001). All of these predictors, either alone or in combination, had poor discriminatory ability (AUCs < 0.70) and poor clinical usefulness (+LRs near 1) for the study outcomes. The physical phenotype of frailty appears of limited clinical use for risk stratification of older medical inpatients. Combination with markers from non-physical dimensions does not improve its prognostic abilities.

  1. Risk scoring models for predicting peri-operative morbidity and mortality in people with fragility hip fractures: Qualitative systematic review.

    PubMed

    Marufu, Takawira C; Mannings, Alexa; Moppett, Iain K

    2015-12-01

    Accurate peri-operative risk prediction is an essential element of clinical practice. Various risk stratification tools for assessing patients' risk of mortality or morbidity have been developed and applied in clinical practice over the years. This review aims to outline essential characteristics (predictive accuracy, objectivity, clinical utility) of currently available risk scoring tools for hip fracture patients. We searched eight databases; AMED, CINHAL, Clinical Trials.gov, Cochrane, DARE, EMBASE, MEDLINE and Web of Science for all relevant studies published until April 2015. We included published English language observational studies that considered the predictive accuracy of risk stratification tools for patients with fragility hip fracture. After removal of duplicates, 15,620 studies were screened. Twenty-nine papers met the inclusion criteria, evaluating 25 risk stratification tools. Risk stratification tools considered in more than two studies were; ASA, CCI, E-PASS, NHFS and O-POSSUM. All tools were moderately accurate and validated in multiple studies; however there are some limitations to consider. The E-PASS and O-POSSUM are comprehensive but complex, and require intraoperative data making them a challenge for use on patient bedside. The ASA, CCI and NHFS are simple, easy and inexpensive using routinely available preoperative data. Contrary to the ASA and CCI which has subjective variables in addition to other limitations, the NHFS variables are all objective. In the search for a simple and inexpensive, easy to calculate, objective and accurate tool, the NHFS may be the most appropriate of the currently available scores for hip fracture patients. However more studies need to be undertaken before it becomes a national hip fracture risk stratification or audit tool of choice. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community.

    PubMed

    Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L

    2002-10-29

    Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

  3. Peri-procedural risk stratification and management of patients with Williams syndrome.

    PubMed

    Collins Ii, R Thomas; Collins, Margaret G; Schmitz, Michael L; Hamrick, Justin T

    2017-03-01

    Williams syndrome (WS) is a congenital, multisystem disorder affecting the cardiovascular, connective tissue, and central nervous systems in 1 in 10 000 live births. Cardiovascular involvement is the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with WS, and noninvasive and invasive procedures are common. Sudden cardiovascular collapse in patients with WS is a well-known phenomenon, especially in the peri-procedural period. Detailed guidelines for peri-procedural management of patients with WS are limited. The goal of this review is to provide thoughtful, safe and effective management strategies for the peri-procedural care of patients with WS with careful consideration of hemodynamic impacts of anesthetic strategies. In addition, an expanded risk stratification system for anesthetic administration is provided. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. A new evidence-based risk stratification system for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma into low, intermediate, and high risk groups with implications for management.

    PubMed

    Baum, Christian L; Wright, Adam C; Martinez, Juan-Carlos; Arpey, Christopher J; Brewer, Jerry D; Roenigk, Randall K; Otley, Clark C

    2018-01-01

    Most primary cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas are cured with surgery. A subset, however, may develop local and nodal metastasis that may eventuate in disease-specific; death. This subset has been variably termed high risk. Herein, we review; an emerging body of data on the risks of these outcomes and propose an evidence-based; risk stratification for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk tumors that takes into; account both tumor and patient characteristics. Finally, we discuss a framework for; management of these tumors on the basis of data, when available, and our; recommendations when data are sparse. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Predicting the risk of sudden cardiac death.

    PubMed

    Lerma, Claudia; Glass, Leon

    2016-05-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the result of a change of cardiac activity from normal (typically sinus) rhythm to a rhythm that does not pump adequate blood to the brain. The most common rhythms leading to SCD are ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF). These result from an accelerated ventricular pacemaker or ventricular reentrant waves. Despite significant efforts to develop accurate predictors for the risk of SCD, current methods for risk stratification still need to be improved. In this article we briefly review current approaches to risk stratification. Then we discuss the mathematical basis for dynamical transitions (called bifurcations) that may lead to VT and VF. One mechanism for transition to VT or VF involves a perturbation by a premature ventricular complex (PVC) during sinus rhythm. We describe the main mechanisms of PVCs (reentry, independent pacemakers and abnormal depolarizations). An emerging approach to risk stratification for SCD involves the development of individualized dynamical models of a patient based on measured anatomy and physiology. Careful analysis and modelling of dynamics of ventricular arrhythmia on an individual basis will be essential in order to improve risk stratification for SCD and to lay a foundation for personalized (precision) medicine in cardiology. © 2015 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2015 The Physiological Society.

  6. Why is cardiovascular risk stratification important in hypertensive patients?

    PubMed

    Coll-De-Tuero, Gabriel; Saez, Marc; Rodriguez-Poncelas, Antonio; Barceló-Rado, Antonia; Vargas-Vila, Susanna; Garre-Olmo, Josep; Sala, Victoria; Sieira, Angels; Gelada, Esther; Gelado-Ferrero, Jesús

    2012-06-01

    The aim is to evaluate whether cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification in newly diagnosed hypertensive patients according to the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) guidelines, can predict the evolution of target organ damage (TOD) using routine examinations in clinical practice during 1 year. Prospective study of recently diagnosed untreated hypertensives. At the moment of inclusion and 1 year later, urinary albumin excretion rate (UAER), blood analysis, electrocardiogram, retinography, self-monitored blood pressure (BP) and ambulatory BP measurement were performed. TOD was defined following the ESH guidelines and evaluated as having favorable or unfavorable evolution. Four hundred and seventy-nine hypertensive patients were included (58.8 years; 43.4% women). The baseline prevalence of TOD was: high UAER (2.4%), left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (20.7%), advanced lesion of the fundus oculi (FO) (10.2%). After 1 year, no differences were found between the final systolic and diastolic BP neither in the high/very high nor in the low/moderate CV risk groups. Patients with low/moderate CV risk had less unfavorable TOD evolution, LVH (9.2% vs 41.7%; p <0.001), FO advanced damage (0.99% vs 14.3%; p <0.001), high UAER (0.3% vs 5.1%; p <0.005) and amount of TOD (9.2% vs 44.0%; 0<0.001) than those with high/very high CV risk. The odds ratios of favorable TOD evolution adjusted for BP change and antihypertensive drug treatment were (low/moderate vs high/very high CV risk); 5.14 (95% confidence interval, CI, 3.99-6.64) for LVH; 12.42 (6.67-23.14) FO advanced damage; 10.71 (3.67-31.22) high UAER and 13.99 (10.18-19.22) for amount of TOD. It is possible to detect variations in TOD in hypertensive patients with a 1-year follow-up using the examinations available in routine clinic practice. The risk determined by the ESH guidelines predicts the evolution of TOD at 1 year.

  7. Computational cardiology and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: one of the grand challenges for cardiology in the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Hill, Adam P; Perry, Matthew D; Abi-Gerges, Najah; Couderc, Jean-Philippe; Fermini, Bernard; Hancox, Jules C; Knollmann, Bjorn C; Mirams, Gary R; Skinner, Jon; Zareba, Wojciech; Vandenberg, Jamie I

    2016-12-01

    Risk stratification in the context of sudden cardiac death has been acknowledged as one of the major challenges facing cardiology for the past four decades. In recent years, the advent of high performance computing has facilitated organ-level simulation of the heart, meaning we can now examine the causes, mechanisms and impact of cardiac dysfunction in silico. As a result, computational cardiology, largely driven by the Physiome project, now stands at the threshold of clinical utility in regards to risk stratification and treatment of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. In this white paper, we outline a roadmap of what needs to be done to make this translational step, using the relatively well-developed case of acquired or drug-induced long QT syndrome as an exemplar case. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Physiological Society.

  8. Emergence of molecular imaging of aortic aneurysm; implications for risk stratification and management

    PubMed Central

    Golestani, Reza; Sadeghi, Mehran M.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Imaging cellular and molecular processes associated with aneurysm expansion, dissection, and rupture can potentially transform the management of patients with thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysm (TAA and AAA). Here, we review recent advances in molecular imaging of aortic aneurysm, focusing on imaging modalities with the greatest potential for clinical translation and application, PET, SPECT and MRI. Inflammation (e.g., with 18F-FDG, nanoparticles) and matrix remodeling (e.g., with matrix metalloproteinase-targeted tracers) are highlighted as promising targets for molecular imaging of aneurysm. Potential alternative or complementary approaches to molecular imaging for aneurysm risk stratification are briefly discussed. PMID:24381115

  9. Prognostic factors for risk stratification of adult cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Lee, Yee Mei; Lang, Dora; Lockwood, Craig

    (thrombocytopenia, presence of central venous catheter, and duration and severity of neutropenia) have not previously been included in prognostic models. This review has found these factors may improve the performance of current models by adding or replacing some of the factors. The role of risk stratification of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia patients continues to evolve as the practice of risk-based therapy has been demonstrated to be beneficial to patients, clinicians and health care organisations. Further research to identify new factors /markers is needed to develop a new model which is reliable and accurate for these patients, regardless of cancer types. A robust and well-validated prognostic model is the key to enhance patient safety in the risk-based management of cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia.

  10. Hyperuricemia and the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation--could it refine clinical risk stratification in AF?

    PubMed

    Chao, Tze-Fan; Liu, Chia-Jen; Chen, Su-Jung; Wang, Kang-Ling; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Tsao, Hsuan-Ming; Chen, Shih-Ann

    2014-01-01

    Although hyperuricemia has been reported to be a risk factor of stroke, the relationship between hyperuricemia and stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains uncertain. The goal of the present study was to investigate whether hyperuricemia could potentially refine clinical risk stratification in AF. This study used the "National Health Insurance Research Database" in Taiwan. A total of 7601 AF patients who did not receive antiplatelet agents or oral anticoagulants were identified as the study population. Hyperuricemia was defined as having at least one episode of gout attack necessitating long-term treatment with uric acid-lowering agents. The association between hyperuricemia and ischemic stroke was analyzed. During the follow up of 3.0±2.7 years, 1116 patients (14.7%) experienced ischemic stroke with an annual rate of around 4.9%. Hyperuricemia significantly predicts stroke, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.280 after adjusting for CHA2DS2-VASc score and other comorbidities. Among the 376 patients with a CHA2DS2VASc score of 0, hyperuricemia can further stratify them into 2 groups with different stroke rates (7.1% versus 1.3%, p=0.020). The adjusted HR of hyperuricemia in predicting ischemic stroke diminished from 7.491 for patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 to 1.659 for those with a score of 3, and became insignificant for patients with a score ≥4. Hyperuricemia was a significant risk factor of stroke which could potentially refine the clinical risk stratification in AF. It deserves a prospective trial to investigate whether it would change the current strategy for stroke preventions using oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Pleural Infections. RAPID Score for Risk Stratification.

    PubMed

    White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar

    2015-09-01

    Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.

  12. The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

    PubMed

    Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael

    2017-06-01

    The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Clinical risk stratification in patients with surgically resectable micropapillary bladder cancer.

    PubMed

    Fernández, Mario I; Williams, Stephen B; Willis, Daniel L; Slack, Rebecca S; Dickstein, Rian J; Parikh, Sahil; Chiong, Edmund; Siefker-Radtke, Arlene O; Guo, Charles C; Czerniak, Bogdan A; McConkey, David J; Shah, Jay B; Pisters, Louis L; Grossman, H Barton; Dinney, Colin P N; Kamat, Ashish M

    2017-05-01

    To analyse survival in patients with clinically localised, surgically resectable micropapillary bladder cancer (MPBC) undergoing radical cystectomy (RC) with and without neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and develop risk strata based on outcome data. A review of our database identified 103 patients with surgically resectable (≤cT4acN0 cM0) MPBC who underwent RC. Survival estimates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank tests. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed to identify risk groups for survival. For the entire cohort, estimated 5-year overall survival and disease-specific survival (DSS) rates were 52% and 58%, respectively. CART analysis identified three risk subgroups: low-risk: cT1, no hydronephrosis; high-risk: ≥cT2, no hydronephrosis; and highest-risk: cTany with tumour-associated hydronephrosis. The 5-year DSS for the low-, high-, and highest-risk groups were 92%, 51%, and 17%, respectively (P < 0.001). Patients down-staged at RC risk stratification before treatment recommendations can be made. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Sensitivity of Rogue Waves Predictions to the Oceanic Stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Qiuchen; Alam, Mohammad-Reza

    2014-11-01

    Oceanic rogue waves are short-lived very large amplitude waves (a giant crest typically followed or preceded by a deep trough) that appear and disappear suddenly in the ocean causing damages to ships and offshore structures. Assuming that the state of the ocean at the present time is perfectly known, then the upcoming rogue waves can be predicted via numerically solving the equations that govern the evolution of the waves. The state of the art radar technology can now provide accurate wave height measurement over large spatial domains and when combined with advanced wave-field reconstruction techniques together render deterministic details of the current state of the ocean (i.e. surface elevation and velocity field) at any given moment of the time with a very high accuracy. The ocean water density is, however, stratified (mainly due to the salinity and temperature differences). This density stratification, with today's technology, is very difficult to be measured accurately. As a result in most predictive schemes these density variations are neglected. While the overall effect of the stratification on the average state of the ocean may not be significant, here we show that these density variations can strongly affect the prediction of oceanic rogue waves. Specifically, we consider a broadband oceanic spectrum in a two-layer density stratified fluid, and study via extensive statistical analysis the effects of strength of the stratification (difference between densities) and the depth of the thermocline on the prediction of upcoming rogue waves.

  15. The nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score, cardiovascular risk stratification and a strategy for secondary prevention with ezetimibe.

    PubMed

    Simon, Tracey G; Corey, Kathleen E; Cannon, Christopher P; Blazing, Michael; Park, Jeong-Gun; O'Donoghue, Michelle L; Chung, Raymond T; Giugliano, Robert P

    2018-05-26

    The nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) is comprised of unique metabolic risk indicators that may accurately predict residual cardiovascular (CV) risk in patients with established coronary disease and metabolic dysfunction. We applied the NFS prospectively to 14,819 post-ACS patients randomized to ezetimibe/simvastatin (E/S) or placebo/simvastatin (P/S), in the IMPROVE-IT trial, using validated NFS cutoffs. The primary endpoint included CV death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, revascularization or stroke. Outcomes were compared between NFS categories and treatment arms using frequency of events, KM rates and adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. The ability of the NFS to predict recurrent CV events was independently validated in 5395 placebo-treated patients enrolled in the SOLID-TIMI 52 trial. Among 14,819 patients enrolled in IMPROVE-IT, 14.2% (N = 2106) were high-risk (NFS > 0.67). The high-risk group had a 30% increased risk of recurrent major CV events, compared to the low-risk NFS group (HR 1.30 [1.19-1.43]; p < 0.001). Among high-risk patients, ezetimibe/simvastatin conferred a 3.7% absolute reduction in risk of recurrent CV events, compared to placebo/simvastatin (HR 0.85 [0.74-0.98]), translating to a number-needed-to-treat of 27. Similar benefit was not found in the low-risk group (HR ezetimibe/simvastatin vs. placebo/simvastatin, 1.01 [0.91-1.12]; p-interaction = 0.053). The relationship between NFS category and recurrent CV events was independently validated in patients enrolled in SOLID-TIMI 52 (HR for NFS > 0.67 vs. NFS < -1.455 = 1.55 [1.32-1.81]; p < 0.001). Stratification of cardiovascular risk by NFS identifies an independent population of patients who are at highest risk of recurrent events, and most likely to benefit from dual lipid-lowering therapy. Clinical trials.gov: NCT00202878. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Stratification of breast cancer risk in women with atypia: a Mayo cohort study.

    PubMed

    Degnim, Amy C; Visscher, Daniel W; Berman, Hal K; Frost, Marlene H; Sellers, Thomas A; Vierkant, Robert A; Maloney, Shaun D; Pankratz, V Shane; de Groen, Piet C; Lingle, Wilma L; Ghosh, Karthik; Penheiter, Lois; Tlsty, Thea; Melton, L Joseph; Reynolds, Carol A; Hartmann, Lynn C

    2007-07-01

    Atypical hyperplasia is a well-recognized risk factor for breast cancer, conveying an approximately four-fold increased risk. Data regarding long-term absolute risk and factors for risk stratification are needed. Women with atypical hyperplasia in the Mayo Benign Breast Disease Cohort were identified through pathology review. Subsequent breast cancers were identified via medical records and a questionnaire. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using standardized incidence ratios, comparing the observed number of breast cancers with those expected based on Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Age, histologic factors, and family history were evaluated as risk modifiers. Plots of cumulative breast cancer incidence provided estimates of risk over time. With mean follow-up of 13.7 years, 66 breast cancers (19.9%) occurred among 331 women with atypia. RR of breast cancer with atypia was 3.88 (95% CI, 3.00 to 4.94). Marked elevations in risk were seen with multifocal atypia (eg, three or more foci with calcifications [RR, 10.35; 95% CI, 6.13 to 16.4]). RR was higher for younger women (< 45; RR, 6.76; 95% CI, 3.24 to 12.4). Risk was similar for atypical ductal and atypical lobular hyperplasia, and family history added no significant risk. Breast cancer risk remained elevated over 20 years, and the cumulative incidence approached 35% at 30 years. Among women with atypical hyperplasia, multiple foci of atypia and the presence of histologic calcifications may indicate "very high risk" status (> 50% risk at 20 years). A positive family history does not further increase risk in women with atypia.

  17. Risk stratification of gallbladder polyps (1-2 cm) for surgical intervention with 18F-FDG PET/CT.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jaehoon; Yun, Mijin; Kim, Kyoung-Sik; Lee, Jong-Doo; Kim, Chun K

    2012-03-01

    We assessed the value of (18)F-FDG uptake in the gallbladder polyp (GP) in risk stratification for surgical intervention and the optimal cutoff level of the parameters derived from GP (18)F-FDG uptake for differentiating malignant from benign etiologies in a select, homogeneous group of patients with 1- to 2-cm GPs. Fifty patients with 1- to 2-cm GPs incidentally found on the CT portion of PET/CT were retrospectively analyzed. All patients had histologic diagnoses. GP (18)F-FDG activity was visually scored positive (≥liver) or negative (risk stratification. Twenty GPs were classified as malignant and 30 as benign. Multivariate analyses showed that the age and all parameters (visual criteria, SUVgp, and GP/L) related to (18)F-FDG uptake were significant risk factors, with the GP/L being the most significant. The sex, size of GPs, and presence of concurrent gallstones were found to be insignificant. (18)F-FDG uptake in a GP is a strong risk factor that can be used to determine the necessity of surgical intervention more effectively than other known risk factors. However, all criteria derived from (18)F-FDG uptake presented in this series may be applicable to the assessment of 1- to 2-cm GPs.

  18. Combining abdominal and cosmetic breast surgery does not increase short-term complication rates: a comparison of each individual procedure and pretreatment risk stratification tool.

    PubMed

    Khavanin, Nima; Jordan, Sumanas W; Vieira, Brittany L; Hume, Keith M; Mlodinow, Alexei S; Simmons, Christopher J; Murphy, Robert X; Gutowski, Karol A; Kim, John Y S

    2015-11-01

    Combined abdominal and breast surgery presents a convenient and relatively cost-effective approach for accomplishing both procedures. This study is the largest to date assessing the safety of combined procedures, and it aims to develop a simple pretreatment risk stratification method for patients who desire a combined procedure. All women undergoing abdominoplasty, panniculectomy, augmentation mammaplasty, and/or mastopexy in the TOPS database were identified. Demographics and outcomes for combined procedures were compared to individual procedures using χ(2) and Student's t-tests. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios for the effect of a combined procedure on 30-day complications. Among combined procedures, a logistic regression model determined point values for pretreatment risk factors including diabetes (1 point), age over 53 (1), obesity (2), and 3+ ASA status (3), creating a 7-point pretreatment risk stratification tool. A total of 58,756 cases met inclusion criteria. Complication rates among combined procedures (9.40%) were greater than those of aesthetic breast surgery (2.66%; P < .001) but did not significantly differ from abdominal procedures (9.75%; P = .530). Nearly 77% of combined cases were classified as low-risk (0 points total) with a 9.78% complication rates. Medium-risk patients (1 to 3 points) had a 16.63% complication rate, and high-risk (4 to 7 points) 38.46%. Combining abdominal and breast procedures is safe in the majority of patients and does not increase 30-day complications rates. The risk stratification tool can continue to ensure favorable outcomes for patients who may desire a combined surgery. 4 Risk. © 2015 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Congenital and hereditary causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults: diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Stojanovska, Jadranka; Garg, Anubhav; Patel, Smita; Melville, David M; Kazerooni, Ella A; Mueller, Gisela C

    2013-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death is defined as death from unexpected circulatory arrest-usually a result of cardiac arrhythmia-that occurs within 1 hour of the onset of symptoms. Proper and timely identification of individuals at risk for sudden cardiac death and the diagnosis of its predisposing conditions are vital. A careful history and physical examination, in addition to electrocardiography and cardiac imaging, are essential to identify conditions associated with sudden cardiac death. Among young adults (18-35 years), sudden cardiac death most commonly results from a previously undiagnosed congenital or hereditary condition, such as coronary artery anomalies and inherited cardiomyopathies (eg, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy [ARVC], dilated cardiomyopathy, and noncompaction cardiomyopathy). Overall, the most common causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults are, in descending order of frequency, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, coronary artery anomalies with an interarterial or intramural course, and ARVC. Often, sudden cardiac death is precipitated by ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation and may be prevented with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). Risk stratification to determine the need for an ICD is challenging and involves imaging, particularly echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Coronary artery anomalies, a diverse group of congenital disorders with a variable manifestation, may be depicted at coronary computed tomographic angiography or MR angiography. A thorough understanding of clinical risk stratification, imaging features, and complementary diagnostic tools for the evaluation of cardiac disorders that may lead to sudden cardiac death is essential to effectively use imaging to guide diagnosis and therapy.

  20. Risk stratification of gallbladder polyps larger than 10 mm using high-resolution ultrasonography and texture analysis.

    PubMed

    Choi, Tae Won; Kim, Jung Hoon; Park, Sang Joon; Ahn, Su Joa; Joo, Ijin; Han, Joon Koo

    2018-01-01

    To assess important features for risk stratification of gallbladder (GB) polyps >10 mm using high-resolution ultrasonography (HRUS) and texture analysis. We included 136 patients with GB polyps (>10 mm) who underwent both HRUS and cholecystectomy (non-neoplastic, n = 58; adenomatous, n = 32; and carcinoma, n = 46). Two radiologists retrospectively assessed HRUS findings and texture analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify significant predictors for neoplastic polyps and carcinomas. Single polyp (OR, 3.680-3.856) and larger size (OR, 1.450-1.477) were independently associated with neoplastic polyps (p < 0.05). In a single or polyp >14 mm, sensitivity for differentiating neoplastic from non-neoplastic polyps was 92.3%. To differentiate carcinoma from adenoma, sessile shape (OR, 9.485-41.257), larger size (OR, 1.267-1.303), higher skewness (OR, 6.382) and lower grey-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) contrast (OR, 0.963) were significant predictors (p < 0.05). In a polyp >22 mm or sessile, sensitivity for differentiating carcinomas from adenomas was 93.5-95.7%. If a polyp demonstrated at least one HRUS finding and at least one texture feature, the specificity for diagnosing carcinoma was increased to 90.6-93.8%. In a GB polyp >10 mm, single and diameter >14 mm were useful for predicting neoplastic polyps. In neoplastic polyps, sessile shape, diameter >22 mm, higher skewness and lower GLCM contrast were useful for predicting carcinoma. • Risk of neoplastic polyp is low in <14 mm and multiple polyps • A sessile polyp or >22 mm has increased risk for GB carcinomas • Higher skewness and lower GLCM contrast are predictors of GB carcinoma • HRUS is useful for risk stratification of GB polyps >1 cm.

  1. Doppler endoscopic probe as a guide to risk stratification and definitive hemostasis of peptic ulcer bleeding.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Dennis M; Ohning, Gordon V; Kovacs, Thomas O G; Ghassemi, Kevin A; Jutabha, Rome; Dulai, Gareth S; Machicado, Gustavo A

    2016-01-01

    For more than 4 decades endoscopists have relied on ulcer stigmata for risk stratification and as a guide to hemostasis. None used arterial blood flow underneath stigmata to predict outcomes. For patients with severe peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB), we used a Doppler endoscopic probe (DEP) for (1) detection of blood flow underlying stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH), (2) quantitating rates of residual arterial blood flow under SRH after visually directed standard endoscopic treatment, and (3) comparing risks of rebleeding and actual 30-day rebleed rates for spurting arterial bleeding (Forrest [F] IA) and oozing bleeding (F IB). Prospective cohort study of 163 consecutive patients with severe PUB and different SRH. All blood flow detected by the DEP was arterial. Detection rates were 87.4% in major SRH-spurting arterial bleeding (F IA), non-bleeding visible vessel (F IIA), clot (F IIB)-and were significantly lower at 42.3% (P < .0001) for an intermediate group of oozing bleeding (F IB) or flat spot (F IIC). For spurting bleeding (F IA) versus oozing (F IB), baseline DEP arterial flow was 100% versus 46.7%, residual blood flow detected after endoscopic hemostasis was 35.7% versus 0%, and 30-day rebleed rates were 28.6% versus 0% (all P < .05). (1) For major SRH versus oozing or spot, the arterial blood flow detection rate by the DEP was significantly higher, indicating a higher rebleed risk. (2) Before and after endoscopic treatment, spurting (F IA) PUB had significantly higher rates of blood flow detection than oozing (F IB) PUB and a significantly higher 30-day rebleed rate. (3) The DEP is recommended as a new endoscopic guide with SRH to improve risk stratification and potentially definitive hemostasis for PUB. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. Doppler Endoscopic Probe as a Guide to Risk Stratification and Definitive Hemostasis of Peptic Ulcer Bleeding

    PubMed Central

    Jensen, Dennis M.; Ohning, Gordon V.; Kovacs, Thomas OG; Ghassemi, Kevin A.; Jutabha, Rome; Dulai, Gareth S.; Machicado, Gustavo A.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims For more than 4 decades endoscopists have relied on ulcer stigmata for risk stratification and as a guide to hemostasis. None used arterial blood flow underneath stigmata to predict outcomes. For patients with severe peptic ulcer bleeding (PUBs), we used Doppler endoscopic probe (DEP) for: 1. detection of blood flow underlying stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH), 2. quantitating rates of residual arterial blood flow under SRH after visually directed standard endoscopic treatment, and 3. comparing risks of rebleeding and actual 30 day rebleed rates for spurting arterial bleeding (Forrest – FIA) and oozing bleeding (FIB). Methods Prospective cohort study of 163 consecutive patients with severe PUBs and different SRH. Results All blood flow detected by DEP was arterial. Detection rates were 87.4% in major SRH - spurting arterial bleeding (FIA), non bleeding visible vessel (FIIA), clot (FIIB) - and significantly lower at 42.3% (p<0.0001) for intermediate group of oozing bleeding (FIB) or flat spot (FIIC). For spurting bleeding (FIA) vs. oozing (FIB), baseline DEP arterial flow was 100% vs. 46.7%; residual blood flow detected after endoscopic hemostasis was 35.7% vs. 0%; and 30 day rebleed rates were 28.6% vs. 0% (all p<0.05). Conclusions 1. For major SRH vs. oozing or spot, the arterial blood flow detection rates by DEP was significantly higher, indicating a higher rebleed risk. 2. Before and after endoscopic treatment, spurting FIA PUB’s had significantly higher rates of blood flow detection than oozing FIB PUB’s and a significantly higher 30 rebleed rate. 3. DEP is recommended as a new endoscopic guide with SRH to improve risk stratification and potentially definitive hemostasis for PUBs. PMID:26318834

  3. Value of Exercise Stress Electrocardiography for Risk Stratification in Patients With Suspected or Known Coronary Artery Disease in the Era of Advanced Imaging Technologies

    PubMed Central

    Bourque, Jamieson M.; Beller, George A.

    2015-01-01

    Exercise stress electrocardiography (ExECG) is underutilized as the initial test modality in patients with interpretable electrocardiograms able to exercise. Although, stress myocardial imaging techniques provide valuable diagnostic and prognostic information, variables derived from ExECG can yield substantial data for risk stratification, either supplementary to imaging variables, or without concurrent imaging. In addition to exercise-induced ischemic ST depression, such markers as ST segment elevation in lead AVR, abnormal heart rate recovery post-exercise, failure to achieve target heart rate, and poor exercise capacity improve risk stratification of ExECG. For example, patients achieving ≥10 METS on ExECG have a very low prevalence of inducible ischemia and an excellent prognosis. In contrast, cardiac imaging techniques add diagnostic and prognostic value in higher risk populations (e.g. poor functional capacity, diabetes, chronic kidney disease). Optimal test selection for symptomatic patients with suspected coronary artery disease requires a patient-centered approach factoring in the risk/benefit ratio and cost-effectiveness. PMID:26563861

  4. Microalbuminuria could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

    PubMed

    Elyas, Salim; Shore, Angela C; Kingwell, Hayley; Keenan, Samantha; Boxall, Leigh; Stewart, Jane; James, Martin A; Strain, William David

    2016-09-01

    Transient ischemic attacks (TIA) and minor strokes are important risk factors for recurrent strokes. Current stroke risk prediction scores such as ABCD2, although widely used, lack optimal sensitivity and specificity. Elevated urinary albumin excretion predicts cardiovascular disease, stroke, and mortality. We explored the role of microalbuminuria (using albumin creatinine ratio (ACR)) in predicting recurrence risk in patients with TIA and minor stroke. Urinary ACR was measured on a spot sample in 150 patients attending a daily stroke clinic with TIA or minor stroke. Patients were followed up at day 7, 30, and 90 to determine recurrent stroke, cardiovascular events, or death. Eligible patients had a carotid ultrasound Doppler investigation. High-risk patients were defined as those who had an event within 90 days or had >50% internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis. Fourteen (9.8%) recurrent events were reported by day 90 including two deaths. Fifteen patients had severe ICA stenosis. In total, 26 patients were identified as high risk. These patients had a higher frequency of previous stroke or hypercholesterolemia compared to low-risk patients (P = 0.04). ACR was higher in high-risk patients (3.4 [95% CI 2.2-5.2] vs. 1.7 [1.5-2.1] mg/mmol, P = 0.004), independent of age, sex, blood pressure, diabetes, and previous stroke. An ACR greater than 1.5 mg/mmol predicted high-risk patients (Cox proportional hazard ratio 3.5 (95% CI 1.3-9.5, P = 0.01). After TIA or minor stroke, a higher ACR predicted recurrent events and significant ICA stenosis. Incorporation of urinary ACR from a spot sample in the acute setting could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

  5. Better Indigenous Risk stratification for Cardiac Health study (BIRCH) protocol: rationale and design of a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study to identify novel cardiovascular risk indicators in Aboriginal Australian and Torres Strait Islander adults.

    PubMed

    Rémond, Marc G W; Stewart, Simon; Carrington, Melinda J; Marwick, Thomas H; Kingwell, Bronwyn A; Meikle, Peter; O'Brien, Darren; Marshall, Nathaniel S; Maguire, Graeme P

    2017-08-23

    Of the estimated 10-11 year life expectancy gap between Indigenous (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people) and non-Indigenous Australians, approximately one quarter is attributable to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Risk prediction of CVD is imperfect, but particularly limited for Indigenous Australians. The BIRCH (Better Indigenous Risk stratification for Cardiac Health) project aims to identify and assess existing and novel markers of early disease and risk in Indigenous Australians to optimise health outcomes in this disadvantaged population. It further aims to determine whether these markers are relevant in non-Indigenous Australians. BIRCH is a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian adults (≥ 18 years) living in remote, regional and urban locations. Participants will be assessed for CVD risk factors, left ventricular mass and strain via echocardiography, sleep disordered breathing and quality via home-based polysomnography or actigraphy respectively, and plasma lipidomic profiles via mass spectrometry. Outcome data will comprise CVD events and death over a period of five years. Results of BIRCH may increase understanding regarding the factors underlying the increased burden of CVD in Indigenous Australians in this setting. Further, it may identify novel markers of early disease and risk to inform the development of more accurate prediction equations. Better identification of at-risk individuals will promote more effective primary and secondary preventive initiatives to reduce Indigenous Australian health disadvantage.

  6. The use of adenosine and adenosine triphosphate testing in the diagnosis, risk stratification and management of patients with syncope: current evidence and future perspectives.

    PubMed

    Fragakis, Nikolaos; Antoniadis, Antonios P; Saviano, Massimo; Vassilikos, Vassilios; Pappone, Carlo

    2015-03-15

    Syncope is a significant source of cardiovascular-related morbidity yet the etiology is frequently obscure and the identification of patients at highest risk is challenging. Adenosine (AD) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) administrations have been suggested as potentially useful non-invasive tools in the diagnostic workup of patients with neurally-mediated or bradycardia-related syncope. It has been postulated that both compounds by modulating the autonomic innervation in the heart and exerting negative chronotropic and dromotropic effects in the conduction system, may unmask the mechanism of syncope. However, the clinical implications derived from the efficacy of both tests in the investigation of syncope remain unclear mainly due to inconclusive and occasionally contradictory results of published studies. This review article summarizes recent and past information in the use of ATP and AD in the investigation of syncope with emphasis on clinical trials. We present the current level of evidence for the use of these agents in clinical practice, identify areas where further research is warranted and highlight the future perspectives of these agents as complements to an accurate risk-stratification of patients with syncope. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Detection and risk stratification of women at high risk of preterm birth in rural communities near Nagpur, India.

    PubMed

    Patel, Archana; Prakash, Amber Abhijeet; Pusdekar, Yamini V; Kulkarni, Hemant; Hibberd, Patricia

    2017-09-19

    Presently, preterm birth is globally the leading cause of neonatal mortality. Prompt community based identification of women at high risk for preterm births (HRPB) can either help to avert preterm births or avail effective interventions to reduce neonatal mortality due to preterm births. We evaluated the performance of a package to train community workers to detect the presence of signs or symptoms of HRPB. Pregnant women enrolled in the intervention arm of a cluster randomized trial of Antenatal Corticosteroids (ACT Trial) conducted at Nagpur, India were informed about 4 directly observable signs and symptoms of preterm labor. Community health workers actively monitored these women from 24 to 36 weeks of gestation for these signs or symptoms. If they were present (HRPB positive) the identified women were brought to government health facilities for assessment and management. HRPB positive could also be determined by the provider if the woman presented directly to the facility. Risk stratification was based on the number of signs or symptoms present. The outcome of preterm birth was based on the clinical assessment of gestational age < 37 weeks at delivery or a birth weight of <2000 g. Between July 1, 2012 and 30 November, 2013, 686 of 7050 (9.7%) pregnant women studied, delivered preterm. 732 (10.4%) women were HRPB positive, of whom 333 (45.5%) delivered preterm. Of the remaining 6318(89.6%) HRPB negative women 353 (5.6%) delivered preterm. The likelihood ratio (LR) of a preterm birth in the HRPB positives was 8.14 (95% confidence interval 7.16-9.26). The LR of a preterm birth increased in women who had more signs or symptoms of HRBP (p < 0.00001). More signs or symptoms of HRPB were also associated with a shorter time to delivery, lower birth weight and higher rates of stillbirths, neonatal deaths and postnatal complications. Addition of risk stratification improved the prediction of preterm delivery (Integrated Discrimination Improvement 17% (95% CI 15

  8. The Value of Elastic Modulus Index as a Novel Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk Stratification by Dimensional Speckle-Tracking Carotid Ultrasonography

    PubMed Central

    Yoon, Ji Hyun; Cho, In-Jeong; Sung, Ji Min; Lee, Jinyong; Ryoo, Hojin; Shim, Chi Young; Hong, Geu-Ru; Chung, Namsik

    2016-01-01

    Background Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) and the presence of carotid plaque have been used for risk stratification of cardiovascular disease (CVD). To date, however, the association between multi-directional functional properties of carotid artery and CVD has not been fully elucidated. We sought to explore the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery in relation to cardiovascular risk. Methods Four hundred one patients who underwent carotid ultrasound were enrolled between January 2010 and April 2013. A high risk of CVD was defined as more than 20% of 10-year risk based on the Framingham risk score. Using a speckle-tracking technique, the longitudinal and radial movements were analyzed in the B-mode images. Peak longitudinal and radial displacements, strain and strain rate were also measured. Beta stiffness and elastic modulus index were calculated from the radial measurements. Results Of the overall sample, 13% (52) of patients comprised the high-risk group. In multivariate logistic regression, CIMT and elastic modulus index were independently associated with a high-risk of CVD {odds ratio (OR): 1.810 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.249–2.622] and OR: 1.767 (95% CI: 1.177–2.652); p = 0.002, 0.006, respectively}. The combination of CIMT and elastic modulus index correlated with a high-risk of CVD more so than CIMT alone. Conclusion The elastic modulus index of the carotid artery might serve as a novel surrogate marker of high-risk CVD. Measurement of the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery using the speckle tracking technique has potential for providing further information over conventional B-mode ultrasound for stratification of CVD risk. PMID:27721952

  9. Use of risk stratification to guide ambulatory management of neutropenic fever. Australian Consensus Guidelines 2011 Steering Committee.

    PubMed

    Worth, L J; Lingaratnam, S; Taylor, A; Hayward, A M; Morrissey, S; Cooney, J; Bastick, P A; Eek, R W; Wei, A; Thursky, K A

    2011-01-01

    Utilization of risk-stratification tools in the setting of neutropenic fever is currently limited by inadequate knowledge and lack of awareness. Within this context, the approach to management of low-risk patients with neutropenic fever is inconsistent with the available evidence across many Australian treating centres. These clinical guidelines define and clarify an accepted standard of care for this patient group given the current evidence base. The Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer risk index is presented as the preferred risk assessment tool for determining patient risk. Suitability of ambulatory care within specific patient populations is discussed, with defined eligibility criteria provided to guide clinical decision-making. Detailed recommendations for implementing appropriate ambulatory strategies, such as early discharge and outpatient antibiotic therapy, are also provided. Due consideration is given to infrastructural requirements and other supportive measures at a resourcing and operational level. An analysis of the relevant health economics is also presented. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  10. Self-Reported Stroke Risk Stratification: Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study.

    PubMed

    Howard, George; McClure, Leslie A; Moy, Claudia S; Howard, Virginia J; Judd, Suzanne E; Yuan, Ya; Long, D Leann; Muntner, Paul; Safford, Monika M; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

    2017-07-01

    The standard for stroke risk stratification is the Framingham Stroke Risk Function (FSRF), an equation requiring an examination for blood pressure assessment, venipuncture for glucose assessment, and ECG to determine atrial fibrillation and heart disease. We assess a self-reported stroke risk function (SRSRF) to stratify stroke risk in comparison to the FSRF. Participants from the REGARDS study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) were evaluated at baseline and followed for incident stroke. The FSRF was calculated using directly assessed stroke risk factors. The SRSRF was calculated from 13 self-reported questions to exclude those with prevalent stroke and assess stroke risk. Proportional hazards analysis was used to assess incident stroke risk using the FSRF and SRSRF. Over an average 8.2-year follow-up, 939 of 23 983 participants had a stroke. The FSRF and SRSRF produced highly correlated risk scores ( r Spearman =0.852; 95% confidence interval, 0.849-0.856); however, the SRSRF had higher discrimination of stroke risk than the FSRF (c SRSRF =0.7266; 95% confidence interval, 0.7076-0.7457; c FSRF =0.7075; 95% confidence interval, 0.6877-0.7273; P =0.0038). The 10-year stroke risk in the highest decile of predicted risk was 11.1% for the FSRF and 13.4% for the SRSRF. A simple self-reported questionnaire can be used to identify those at high risk for stroke better than the gold standard FSRF. This instrument can be used clinically to easily identify individuals at high risk for stroke and also scientifically to identify a subpopulation enriched for stroke risk. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  11. Foresight begins with FMEA. Delivering accurate risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Passey, R D

    1999-03-01

    If sufficient factors are taken into account and two- or three-stage analysis is employed, failure mode and effect analysis represents an excellent technique for delivering accurate risk assessments for products and processes, and for relating them to legal liability. This article describes a format that facilitates easy interpretation.

  12. New Insight Into the Biology, Risk Stratification, and Targeted Treatment of Myelodysplastic Syndromes.

    PubMed

    Haider, Mintallah; Duncavage, Eric J; Afaneh, Khalid F; Bejar, Rafael; List, Alan F

    2017-01-01

    In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), somatic mutations occur in five major categories: RNA splicing, DNA methylation, activated cell signaling, myeloid transcription factors, and chromatin modifiers. Although many MDS cases harbor more than one somatic mutation, in general, there is mutual exclusivity of mutated genes within a class. In addition to the prognostic significance of individual somatic mutations, more somatic mutations in MDS have been associated with poor prognosis. Prognostic assessment remains a critical component of the personalization of care for patient with MDS because treatment is highly risk adapted. Multiple methods for risk stratification are available with the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R), currently considered the gold standard. Increasing access to myeloid gene panels and greater evidence for the diagnostic and predictive value of somatic mutations will soon make sequencing part of the standard evaluation of patients with MDS. In the absence of formal guidelines for their prognostic use, well-validated mutations can still refine estimates of risk made with the IPSS-R. Not only are somatic gene mutations advantageous in understanding the biology of MDS and prognosis, they also offer potential as biomarkers and targets for the treatment of patients with MDS. Examples include deletion 5q, spliceosome complex gene mutations, and TP53 mutations.

  13. Risk Stratification of Acute Kidney Injury Using the Blood Urea Nitrogen/Creatinine Ratio in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

    PubMed

    Takaya, Yoichi; Yoshihara, Fumiki; Yokoyama, Hiroyuki; Kanzaki, Hideaki; Kitakaze, Masafumi; Goto, Yoichi; Anzai, Toshihisa; Yasuda, Satoshi; Ogawa, Hisao; Kawano, Yuhei

    2015-01-01

    Risk stratification of acute kidney injury (AKI) is important for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). The aim of this study was to determine whether clinical markers, such as the blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) or BUN or creatinine values alone, stratify the risk of AKI for mortality. In all, 371 consecutive ADHF patients were enrolled in the study. AKI was defined as serum creatinine ≥0.3 mg/dl or a 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels within 48 h. During ADHF therapy, AKI occurred in 99 patients; 55 patients died during the 12-month follow-up period. Grouping patients according to AKI and a median BUN/Cr at admission of 22.1 (non-AKI+low BUN/Cr, non-AKI+high BUN/Cr, AKI+low BUN/Cr, and AKI+high BUN/Cr groups) revealed higher mortality in the AKI+high BUN/Cr group (log-rank test, P<0.001). Cox's proportional hazard analysis revealed an association between AKI+high BUN/Cr and mortality, whereas the association with AKI+low BUN/Cr did not reach statistical significance. When patients were grouped according to AKI and median BUN or creatinine values at admission, AKI was associated with mortality, regardless of BUN or creatinine. The combination of AKI and elevated BUN/Cr, but not BUN or creatinine individually, is linked with an increased risk of mortality in ADHF patients, suggesting that the BUN/Cr is useful for risk stratification of AKI.

  14. Rationale, objectives, and design of the EUTrigTreat clinical study: a prospective observational study for arrhythmia risk stratification and assessment of interrelationships among repolarization markers and genotype

    PubMed Central

    Seegers, Joachim; Vos, Marc A.; Flevari, Panagiota; Willems, Rik; Sohns, Christian; Vollmann, Dirk; Lüthje, Lars; Kremastinos, Dimitrios T.; Floré, Vincent; Meine, Mathias; Tuinenburg, Anton; Myles, Rachel C.; Simon, Dirk; Brockmöller, Jürgen; Friede, Tim; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Lehnart, Stephan E.; Zabel, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Aims The EUTrigTreat clinical study has been designed as a prospective multicentre observational study and aims to (i) risk stratify patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) for mortality and shock risk using multiple novel and established risk markers, (ii) explore a link between repolarization biomarkers and genetics of ion (Ca2+, Na+, K+) metabolism, (iii) compare the results of invasive and non-invasive electrophysiological (EP) testing, (iv) assess changes of non-invasive risk stratification tests over time, and (v) associate arrythmogenomic risk through 19 candidate genes. Methods and results Patients with clinical ICD indication are eligible for the trial. Upon inclusion, patients will undergo non-invasive risk stratification, including beat-to-beat variability of repolarization (BVR), T-wave alternans, T-wave morphology variables, ambient arrhythmias from Holter, heart rate variability, and heart rate turbulence. Non-invasive or invasive programmed electrical stimulation will assess inducibility of ventricular arrhythmias, with the latter including recordings of monophasic action potentials and assessment of restitution properties. Established candidate genes are screened for variants. The primary endpoint is all-cause mortality, while one of the secondary endpoints is ICD shock risk. A mean follow-up of 3.3 years is anticipated. Non-invasive testing will be repeated annually during follow-up. It has been calculated that 700 patients are required to identify risk predictors of the primary endpoint, with a possible increase to 1000 patients based on interim risk analysis. Conclusion The EUTrigTreat clinical study aims to overcome current shortcomings in sudden cardiac death risk stratification and to answer several related research questions. The initial patient recruitment is expected to be completed in July 2012, and follow-up is expected to end in September 2014. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01209494. PMID:22117037

  15. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for prostate cancer staging and risk stratification in Chinese patients.

    PubMed

    Zang, Shiming; Shao, Guoqiang; Cui, Can; Li, Tian-Nv; Huang, Yue; Yao, Xiaochen; Fan, Qiu; Chen, Zejun; Du, Jin; Jia, Ruipeng; Sun, Hongbin; Hua, Zichun; Tang, Jun; Wang, Feng

    2017-02-14

    We evaluated the clinical utility of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for staging and risk stratification of treatment-naïve prostate cancer (PCa) and metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Twenty-two consecutive patients with treatment-naïve PCa and 18 with mCRPC were enrolled. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were performed for the evaluation of primary prostatic lesions, and bone scans were used for evaluation bone metastasis. Among the 40 patients, 37 (92.5% [22 treatment-naïve PCa, 15 mCRPC]) showed PSMA-avid lesions on 68Ga-PSMA-11 images. Only 3 patients with stable mCRPC after chemotherapy were negative for PSMA. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA-11 imaging were 97.3%, 100.0% and 97.5%, respectively. The maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of prostatic lesions was 17.09 ± 11.08 and 13.33 ± 12.31 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 revealed 105 metastatic lymph nodes in 15 patients; the SUVmax was 16.85 ± 9.70 and 7.54 ± 5.20 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT also newly detected visceral metastasis in 9 patients (22.5%) and bone metastasis in 29 patients (72.5%). 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT exhibits potential for staging and risk stratification in naïve PCa, as well as improved sensitivity for detection of lymph node and remote metastasis.

  16. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for prostate cancer staging and risk stratification in Chinese patients

    PubMed Central

    Cui, Can; Li, Tian-Nv; Huang, Yue; Yao, Xiaochen; Fan, Qiu; Chen, Zejun; Du, Jin; Jia, Ruipeng; Sun, Hongbin; Hua, Zichun; Tang, Jun; Wang, Feng

    2017-01-01

    We evaluated the clinical utility of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for staging and risk stratification of treatment-naïve prostate cancer (PCa) and metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Twenty-two consecutive patients with treatment-naïve PCa and 18 with mCRPC were enrolled. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were performed for the evaluation of primary prostatic lesions, and bone scans were used for evaluation bone metastasis. Among the 40 patients, 37 (92.5% [22 treatment-naïve PCa, 15 mCRPC]) showed PSMA-avid lesions on 68Ga-PSMA-11 images. Only 3 patients with stable mCRPC after chemotherapy were negative for PSMA. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA-11 imaging were 97.3%, 100.0% and 97.5%, respectively. The maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of prostatic lesions was 17.09 ± 11.08 and 13.33 ± 12.31 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 revealed 105 metastatic lymph nodes in 15 patients; the SUVmax was 16.85 ± 9.70 and 7.54 ± 5.20 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT also newly detected visceral metastasis in 9 patients (22.5%) and bone metastasis in 29 patients (72.5%). 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT exhibits potential for staging and risk stratification in naïve PCa, as well as improved sensitivity for detection of lymph node and remote metastasis. PMID:28103574

  17. Risk stratification and rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department - a quasi-randomised controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Foo, Chik Loon; Siu, Vivan Wing Yin; Ang, Hou; Phuah, Madeline Wei Ling; Ooi, Chee Kheong

    2014-08-30

    To determine if risk stratification followed by rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department (ED) reduced functional decline, ED reattendance and hospitalisation. This was a quasi-randomised controlled trial. Patients were randomised by the last digit of their national registration identity card (NRIC). Odd number controls received standard ED care; even number patients received geriatric screening, followed by intervention and/or onward referrals. Patients were followed up for 12 months. There were 500 and 280 patients in the control and intervention groups. The intervention group had higher Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST) scores (34.3% vs 25.4% TRST ≥3, p = 0.01) and lower baseline Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) scores (22.84 vs 24.18, p < 0.01). 82.9% of the intervention group had unmet needs; 62.1% accepted our interventions. Common positive findings were fall risk (65.0%), vision (61.4%), and footwear (58.2%). 28.2% were referred to a geriatric clinic and 11.8% were admitted. 425 (85.0%) controls and 234 (83.6%) in the intervention group completed their follow-up. After adjusting for TRST and baseline IADL, the intervention group had significant preservation in function (Basic ADL -0.99 vs -0.24, p < 0.01; IADL -2.57 vs +0.45, p < 0.01) at 12 months. The reduction in ED reattendance (OR0.75, CI 0.55-1.03, p = 0.07) and hospitalization (OR0.77, CI0.57-1.04, p = 0.09) were not significant, however the real difference would have been wider as 21.2% of the control group received geriatric screening at the request of the ED doctor. A major limitation was that a large proportion of patients who were randomized to the intervention group either refused (18.8%) or left the ED before being approached (32.0%). These two groups were not followed up, and hence were excluded in our analysis. Risk stratification and focused geriatric screening in ED resulted in significant preservation of patients' function at 12

  18. CMV-Specific T Cell Monitoring Offers Superior Risk Stratification of CMV-Seronegative Kidney Transplant Recipients of a CMV-Seropositive Donor.

    PubMed

    Schachtner, Thomas; Stein, Maik; Reinke, Petra

    2017-10-01

    Detectable cytomegalovirus (CMV)-specific T cells in CMV-seronegative kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) have been attributed to an absence of circulating antibodies despite CMV sensitization. The diagnostic value of CMV-specific T cells, however, needs to be implemented in risk stratification for CMV replication. Three hundred twenty-six KTRs were studied and classified with respect to CMV serostatus and presence of CMV-specific T cells. Samples were collected pretransplantation, at +1, +2, and +3 months posttransplantation. CMV-specific T cells directed to CMV-IE1 and CMV-pp65 were measured by interferon-γ Elispot assay. Nineteen (28%) of 67 D+R- KTRs showed pretransplant CMV-specific T cells. Although no differences were observed for CMV replication, KTRs with CMV-specific T cells presented with lower initial and peak CMV loads (P < 0.05). KTRs with decreasing/undetectable CMV-IE1-specific T cells pretransplantation and posttransplantation were at greatest risk of CMV replication. KTRs with stable/increasing CMV-IE1-specific T cells from pretransplantation to posttransplantation, however, showed low risk of CMV replication (P < 0.001). One hundred sixty-two (80%) of 203 R+ KTRs showed pretransplant CMV-specific T cells. Decreasing/undetectable CMV-IE1-specific T cells from pretransplantation and posttransplantation identified those R+ KTRs at increased risk of CMV replication (65/80 KTRs; 81%; P < 0.001). Despite CMV prophylaxis, D+R- KTRs are at greatest risk of CMV disease. Our data suggest that monitoring CMV-specific T cell kinetics from pretransplantation to posttransplantation, particularly directed to CMV-IE1, offers superior risk stratification compared with CMV serostatus alone.

  19. A novel protein-based prognostic signature improves risk stratification to guide clinical management in early lung adenocarcinoma patients.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Terroba, Elena; Behrens, Carmen; de Miguel, Fernando J; Agorreta, Jackeline; Monsó, Eduard; Millares, Laura; Sainz, Cristina; Mesa-Guzman, Miguel; Pérez-Gracia, Jose Luis; Lozano, María Dolores; Zulueta, Javier J; Pio, Ruben; Wistuba, Ignacio I; Montuenga, Luis M; Pajares, María J

    2018-05-13

    Each of the pathological stages (I-IIIa) in which surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer patients are classified conceals hidden biological heterogeneity, manifested in heterogeneous outcomes within each stage. Thus, the finding of robust and precise molecular classifiers to assess individual patient risk is an unmet medical need. Here we identified and validated the clinical utility of a new prognostic signature based on three proteins (BRCA1, QKI and SLC2A1) to stratify early lung adenocarcinoma patients according to their risk of recurrence or death. Patients were staged following the new International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC) staging criteria (8 th edition, 2018). A test cohort (n=239) was used to assess the value of this new prognostic index (PI) based on the three proteins. The prognostic signature was developed by Cox regression following stringent statistical criteria (TRIPOD: Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis). The model resulted in a highly significant predictor of five-year outcome for disease-free survival (P<0.001) and overall survival (P<0.001). The prognostic ability of the model was externally validated in an independent multi-institutional cohort of patients (n=114, P=0.021). We also demonstrated that this molecular classifier adds relevant information to the gold standard TNM-based pathological staging with a highly significant improvement of likelihood ratio. We subsequently developed a combined prognostic index (CPI) including both the molecular and the pathological data which improved the risk stratification in both cohorts (P≤0.001). Moreover, the signature may help to select stage I-IIA patients who might benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. In summary, this protein-based signature accurately identifies those patients with high risk of recurrence and death, and adds further prognostic information to the TNM-based clinical staging, even applying the

  20. Finite element solution to passive scalar transport behind line sources under neutral and unstable stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Chun-Ho; Leung, Dennis Y. C.

    2006-02-01

    This study employed a direct numerical simulation (DNS) technique to contrast the plume behaviours and mixing of passive scalar emitted from line sources (aligned with the spanwise direction) in neutrally and unstably stratified open-channel flows. The DNS model was developed using the Galerkin finite element method (FEM) employing trilinear brick elements with equal-order interpolating polynomials that solved the momentum and continuity equations, together with conservation of energy and mass equations in incompressible flow. The second-order accurate fractional-step method was used to handle the implicit velocity-pressure coupling in incompressible flow. It also segregated the solution to the advection and diffusion terms, which were then integrated in time, respectively, by the explicit third-order accurate Runge-Kutta method and the implicit second-order accurate Crank-Nicolson method. The buoyancy term under unstable stratification was integrated in time explicitly by the first-order accurate Euler method. The DNS FEM model calculated the scalar-plume development and the mean plume path. In particular, it calculated the plume meandering in the wall-normal direction under unstable stratification that agreed well with the laboratory and field measurements, as well as previous modelling results available in literature.

  1. Risk stratification of ambulatory patients with advanced heart failure undergoing evaluation for heart transplantation.

    PubMed

    Kato, Tomoko S; Stevens, Gerin R; Jiang, Jeffrey; Schulze, P Christian; Gukasyan, Natalie; Lippel, Matthew; Levin, Alison; Homma, Shunichi; Mancini, Donna; Farr, Maryjane

    2013-03-01

    Risk stratification of ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients has relied on peak VO(2)<14 ml/kg/min. We investigated whether additional clinical variables might further specify risk of death, ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation (INTERMACS <4) or heart transplantation (HTx, Status 1A or 1B) within 1 year after HTx evaluation. We hypothesized that right ventricular stroke work index (RVSWI), pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and the model for end-stage liver disease-albumin score (MELD-A) would be additive prognostic predictors. We retrospectively collected data on 151 ambulatory patients undergoing HTx evaluation. Primary outcomes were defined as HTx, LVAD or death within 1 year after evaluation. Average age in our cohort was 55 ± 11.1 years, 79.1% were male and 39% had an ischemic etiology (LVEF 21 ± 10.5% and peak VO(2) 12.6 ± 3.5 ml/kg/min). Fifty outcomes (33.1%) were observed (27 HTxs, 15 VADs and 8 deaths). Univariate logistic regression showed a significant association of RVSWI (OR 0.47, p = 0.036), PCWP (OR 2.65, p = 0.007) and MELD-A (OR 2.73, p = 0.006) with 1-year events. Stepwise regression showed an independent correlation of RVSWI<5gm-m(2)/beat (OR 6.70, p < 0.01), PCWP>20 mm Hg (OR 5.48, p < 0.01), MELD-A>14 (OR 3.72, p< 0.01) and peak VO(2)<14 ml/kg/min (OR 3.36, p = 0.024) with 1-year events. A scoring system was developed: MELD-A>14 and peak VO(2)<14-1 point each; and PCWP>20 and RVSWI<5-2 points each. A cut-off at≥4 demonstrated a 54% sensitivity and 88% specificity for 1-year events. Ambulatory HF patients have significant 1-year event rates. Risk stratification based on exercise performance, left-sided congestion, right ventricular dysfunction and liver congestion allows prediction of 1-year prognosis. Our findings support early and timely referral for VAD and/or transplant. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Cardiac stress test as a risk-stratification tool for posttransplant cardiac outcomes in diabetic kidney transplant recipients.

    PubMed

    Singh, Neeraj; Parikh, Samir; Bhatt, Udayan; Vonvisger, Jon; Nori, Uday; Hasan, Ayesha; Samavedi, Srinivas; Andreoni, Kenneth; Henry, Mitchell; Pelletier, Ronald; Rajab, Amer; Elkhammas, Elmahdi; Pesavento, Todd

    2012-12-27

    The utility of cardiac stress testing as a risk-stratification tool before kidney transplantation remains debatable owing to discordance with coronary angiography and outcome yields at different centers. We conducted a retrospective study of 273 diabetic kidney transplant recipients from 2006 to 2010. By protocol, all diabetic patients underwent pharmacological radionucleotide stress test or dobutamine stress echocardiography before transplant. We compared the 1-year cardiac outcomes between those with negative stress test results and those with positive stress test results. Patients with a positive stress test result (n=67) underwent coronary angiogram, and significant coronary artery disease (≥70% coronary stenosis) was found in 35 (52.2%) patients. Of the latter, 32 (91.4%) underwent cardiac revascularization (24 underwent cardiac stenting and 8 underwent coronary artery bypass grafting). The rest (n=35) were treated medically. Within 1 year after transplant, the group with positive stress test results experienced more cardiac events (34.3% vs. 3.9%, P<0.001) including acute myocardial infarction (22.4% vs. 3.4%, P<0.001) and ventricular arrhythmias (8.9% vs. 0.05%, P=0.001), higher all-cause mortality (19.4% vs. 4.8%, P<0.001), and cardiac mortality (17.9% vs. 0.9%, P<0.001) compared with the group with negative stress test results. In this diabetic population, stress testing showed positive and negative predictive values of 34.3% and 96.1%, respectively. Pharmacological cardiac stress testing provided excellent risk stratification in diabetic kidney transplant recipients.

  3. Indiana chronic disease management program risk stratification analysis.

    PubMed

    Li, Jingjin; Holmes, Ann M; Rosenman, Marc B; Katz, Barry P; Downs, Stephen M; Murray, Michael D; Ackermann, Ronald T; Inui, Thomas S

    2005-10-01

    The objective of this study was to compare the ability of risk stratification models derived from administrative data to classify groups of patients for enrollment in a tailored chronic disease management program. This study included 19,548 Medicaid patients with chronic heart failure or diabetes in the Indiana Medicaid data warehouse during 2001 and 2002. To predict costs (total claims paid) in FY 2002, we considered candidate predictor variables available in FY 2001, including patient characteristics, the number and type of prescription medications, laboratory tests, pharmacy charges, and utilization of primary, specialty, inpatient, emergency department, nursing home, and home health care. We built prospective models to identify patients with different levels of expenditure. Model fit was assessed using R statistics, whereas discrimination was assessed using the weighted kappa statistic, predictive ratios, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We found a simple least-squares regression model in which logged total charges in FY 2002 were regressed on the log of total charges in FY 2001, the number of prescriptions filled in FY 2001, and the FY 2001 eligibility category, performed as well as more complex models. This simple 3-parameter model had an R of 0.30 and, in terms in classification efficiency, had a sensitivity of 0.57, a specificity of 0.90, an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.80, and a weighted kappa statistic of 0.51. This simple model based on readily available administrative data stratified Medicaid members according to predicted future utilization as well as more complicated models.

  4. Management of acute paracetamol (acetaminophen) toxicity: a standardised proforma improves risk assessment and overall risk stratification by emergency medicine doctors.

    PubMed

    McQuade, David J; Aknuri, Srikanth; Dargan, Paul I; Wood, David M

    2012-12-01

    Paracetamol (acetaminophen) poisoning is the most common toxicological presentation in the UK. Doctors managing patients with paracetamol poisoning need to assess the risk of their patient developing hepatotoxicity before determining appropriate treatment. Patients deemed to be at 'high risk' of hepatotoxicity have lower treatment thresholds than those deemed to be at 'normal risk'. Errors in this process can lead to harmful or potentially fatal under or over treatment. To determine how well treating doctors assess risk factor status and whether a standardised proforma is useful in the risk stratification process. Retrospective 12-month case note review of all patients presenting with paracetamol poisoning to our large inner-city emergency department. Data were collected on the documentation of risk factors, the presence of a local hospital proforma and treatment outcomes. 249 presentations were analysed and only 59 (23.7%) had full documentation of all the risk factors required to make a complete risk assessment. 56 of the 59 (94.9%) had the local hospital proforma included in the notes; the remaining 3 (5.1%) had full documentation of risk factors despite the absence of a proforma. A local hospital proforma was more likely to be included in the emergency department notes in those with 'adequate documentation' (78 out of 120 (65%)) than for those with 'inadequate documentation' (16 out of 129 (12.4%)); X(2), p<0.001. Despite a low overall uptake of the proforma, use of a standardised proforma significantly increased the likelihood of documentation of the risk factors which increase risk for hepatotoxicity following paracetamol poisoning.

  5. Analytical and assay issues for use of cardiac troponin testing for risk stratification in primary care.

    PubMed

    Wu, Alan H B; Christenson, Robert H

    2013-08-01

    Cardiac troponin is the standard marker for diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction and risk stratification of patients who present to an emergency department with signs and symptoms of acute cardiac ischemia. Over the past few years, the analytical sensitivity of assays for cardiac troponin has improved significantly to the point where a detectable amount of troponin can be measured in essentially all healthy subjects. Recent studies have shown that use of a highly sensitive troponin assays may provide value to traditional markers of primary disease risk for patients, i.e., for those who have no history of heart disease. There are barriers to the adoption of cardiac troponin for screening high risk cohorts such as the elderly, diabetics and perhaps even the asymptomatic population. Strategies used for the assignment of cutoff concentrations in acute care, i.e., the 99 th percentile, may not be appropriate for primary care as changes over baseline levels may provide more accurate information of risk than cross-sectional results. A review of biological variation has shown that cardiac troponin as a biomarker has low index of individuality, indicating that reference values are of little utility. Whether or not cardiac troponin can be released in reversible injury is a debate that could have significance for detecting minor myocardial injury. A major hurdle for use of troponin in primary care is the lack of assay standardization and nomenclature for the different generations of troponin assays. Standardization requires knowledge of what is released after cardiac injury and what the various cardiac troponin assays are measuring. Currently it is not clear if the cardiac troponin release after ischemic injury is identical to that in circulation of healthy individuals. This may affect the design of future assays and standardization approaches. There is potential that a marker of myocardial injury such as troponin can add to the value of existing indicators and biomarkers

  6. Risk stratification of childhood cancer survivors necessary for evidence-based clinical long-term follow-up

    PubMed Central

    Frobisher, Clare; Glaser, Adam; Levitt, Gill A; Cutter, David J; Winter, David L; Lancashire, Emma R; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Guha, Joyeeta; Kelly, Julie; Reulen, Raoul C; Hawkins, Michael M

    2017-01-01

    Background: Reorganisation of clinical follow-up care in England was proposed by the National Cancer Survivorship Initiative (NCSI), based on cancer type and treatment, ranging from Level 1 (supported self-management) to Level 3 (consultant-led care). The objective of this study was to provide an investigation of the risks of serious adverse health-outcomes associated with NCSI Levels of clinical care using a large population-based cohort of childhood cancer survivors. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (BCCSS) was used to investigate risks of specific causes of death, subsequent primary neoplasms (SPNs) and non-fatal non-neoplastic outcomes by NCSI Level. Results: Cumulative (excess) risks of specified adverse outcomes by 45 years from diagnosis among non-leukaemic survivors assigned to NCSI Levels 1, 2 and 3 were for: SPNs—5% (two-fold expected), 14% (four-fold expected) and 21% (eight-fold expected); non-neoplastic death—2% (two-fold expected), 4% (three-fold expected) and 8% (seven-fold expected); non-fatal non-neoplastic condition—14%, 27% and 40%, respectively. Consequently overall cumulative risks of any adverse health outcome were 21%, 45% and 69%, respectively. Conclusions: Despite its simplicity the risk stratification tool provides clear and strong discrimination between survivors assigned to different NCSI Levels in terms of long-term cumulative and excess risks of serious adverse outcomes. PMID:29065109

  7. Emergency department management of syncope: need for standardization and improved risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Taljaard, Monica; Stiell, Ian G; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Murray, Heather; Vaidyanathan, Aparna; Rowe, Brian H; Calder, Lisa A; Lang, Eddy; McRae, Andrew; Sheldon, Robert; Wells, George A

    2015-08-01

    Variations in emergency department (ED) syncope management have not been well studied. The goals of this study were to assess variations in management, and emergency physicians' risk perception and disposition decision making. We conducted a prospective study of adults with syncope in six EDs in four cities over 32 months. We collected patient characteristics, ED management, disposition, physicians' prediction probabilities at index presentation and followed patients for 30 days for serious outcomes: death, myocardial infarction (MI), arrhythmia, structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism, significant hemorrhage, or procedural interventions. We used descriptive statistics, ROC curves, and regression analyses. We enrolled 3662 patients: mean age 54.3 years, and 12.9 % were hospitalized. Follow-up data were available for 3365 patients (91.9 %) and 345 patients (10.3 %) suffered serious outcomes: 120 (3.6 %) after ED disposition including 48 patients outside the hospital. After accounting for differences in patient case mix, the rates of ED investigations and disposition were significantly different (p < 0.0001) across the four study cities; as were the rates of 30-day serious outcomes (p < 0.0001) and serious outcomes after ED disposition (p = 0.0227). There was poor agreement between physician risk perception and both observed event rates and referral patterns (p < 0.0001). Only 76.7 % (95 % CI 68.1-83.6) of patients with serious outcomes were appropriately referred. There are large and unexplained differences in ED syncope management. Moreover, there is poor agreement between physician risk perception, disposition decision making, and serious outcomes after ED disposition. A valid risk-stratification tool might help standardize ED management and improve disposition decision making.

  8. Potential usefulness of apolipoprotein A2 isoforms for screening and risk stratification of pancreatic cancer

    PubMed Central

    Honda, Kazufumi; Srivastava, Sudhir

    2016-01-01

    Given the low incidence of pancreatic cancer in the general population, screening of pancreatic cancer in the general population using invasive modalities is not feasible. Combination of invasive screening with noninvasive biomarkers for pancreatic cancer and its precancerous lesions has the potential to reduce mortality due to pancreatic cancer. In this review, we focus on biomarkers found in the blood that can indicate early-stage pancreatic cancer, and we discuss current strategies for screening for pancreatic cancer. We recently identified a unique alteration in apolipoprotein A2 isoforms in pancreatic cancer and its precancerous lesions, and we describe its clinical usefulness as a potential biomarker for the early detection and risk stratification of pancreatic cancer. PMID:27673558

  9. Risk stratification and rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department – a quasi-randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background To determine if risk stratification followed by rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department (ED) reduced functional decline, ED reattendance and hospitalisation. Method This was a quasi-randomised controlled trial. Patients were randomised by the last digit of their national registration identity card (NRIC). Odd number controls received standard ED care; even number patients received geriatric screening, followed by intervention and/or onward referrals. Patients were followed up for 12 months. Results There were 500 and 280 patients in the control and intervention groups. The intervention group had higher Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST) scores (34.3% vs 25.4% TRST ≥3, p = 0.01) and lower baseline Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) scores (22.84 vs 24.18, p < 0.01). 82.9% of the intervention group had unmet needs; 62.1% accepted our interventions. Common positive findings were fall risk (65.0%), vision (61.4%), and footwear (58.2%). 28.2% were referred to a geriatric clinic and 11.8% were admitted. 425 (85.0%) controls and 234 (83.6%) in the intervention group completed their follow-up. After adjusting for TRST and baseline IADL, the intervention group had significant preservation in function (Basic ADL -0.99 vs -0.24, p < 0.01; IADL -2.57 vs +0.45, p < 0.01) at 12 months. The reduction in ED reattendance (OR0.75, CI 0.55-1.03, p = 0.07) and hospitalization (OR0.77, CI0.57-1.04, p = 0.09) were not significant, however the real difference would have been wider as 21.2% of the control group received geriatric screening at the request of the ED doctor. A major limitation was that a large proportion of patients who were randomized to the intervention group either refused (18.8%) or left the ED before being approached (32.0%). These two groups were not followed up, and hence were excluded in our analysis. Conclusion Risk stratification and focused geriatric screening in ED resulted in significant preservation

  10. Surveillance of Pediatric Cardiac Surgical Outcome Using Risk Stratifications at a Tertiary Care Center in Thailand

    PubMed Central

    Vijarnsorn, Chodchanok; Laohaprasitiporn, Duangmanee; Durongpisitkul, Kritvikrom; Chantong, Prakul; Soongswang, Jarupim; Cheungsomprasong, Paweena; Nana, Apichart; Sriyoschati, Somchai; Subtaweesin, Thawon; Thongcharoen, Punnarerk; Prakanrattana, Ungkab; Krobprachya, Jiraporn; Pooliam, Julaporn

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. To determine in-hospital mortality and complications of cardiac surgery in pediatric patients and identify predictors of hospital mortality. Methods. Records of pediatric patients who had undergone cardiac surgery in 2005 were reviewed retrospectively. The risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1) method, the Aristotle basic complexity score (ABC score), and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons and the European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery Mortality score (STS-EACTS score) were used as measures. Potential predictors were analyzed by risk analysis. Results. 230 pediatric patients had undergone congenital cardiac surgery. Overall, the mortality discharge was 6.1%. From the ROC curve of the RACHS-1, the ABC level, and the STS-EACTS categories, the validities were determined to be 0.78, 0.74, and 0.67, respectively. Mortality risks were found at the high complexity levels of the three tools, bypass time >85 min, and cross clamp time >60 min. Common morbidities were postoperative pyrexia, bleeding, and pleural effusion. Conclusions. Overall mortality and morbidities were 6.1%. The RACHS-1 method, ABC score, and STS-EACTS score were helpful for risk stratification. PMID:21738856

  11. Risk-stratification, resource availability, and choice of surgical location for the management of parturients with abnormal placentation: a survey of United States-based obstetric anesthesiologists.

    PubMed

    Grant, T R; Ellinas, E H; Kula, A O; Muravyeva, M Y

    2018-05-01

    Parturients with abnormally adherent placentas present anesthetic challenges that include risk-stratification, management planning and resource utilization. The labor and delivery unit may be remote from the main operating room services. Division chiefs of North American obstetric anesthesiology services were surveyed about their practices and management of parturients with an abnormally adherent placenta. Eighty-four of 122 chiefs, representing 103 hospital sites, responded to the survey (response rate 69%). Sixty-one percent of respondents agreed that women with preoperative placental imaging that was "suspicious" of placenta accreta represented a lower risk category; all other suggested descriptions fell into a higher risk category. Seventy-nine percent of respondents indicated that lower risk cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit, while 71% indicated that higher risk cases would be managed in the main operating room. Institutions where all cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit had better access to human and technical resources, were less remote from their main operating areas, and promoted neuraxial rather than general anesthesia, even for parturients perceived to be at higher risk. Obstetric anesthesia leaders identified patients at lower clinical risk and those less likely to require greater resources. Additional resources were available in institutions where all abnormal placentation cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit. Practitioners should consider risk-stratification and resource availability when planning high-risk cases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Migration and stratification

    PubMed Central

    Jasso, Guillermina

    2011-01-01

    Migration and stratification are increasingly intertwined. One day soon it will be impossible to understand one without the other. Both focus on life chances. Stratification is about differential life chances - who gets what and why - and migration is about improving life chances - getting more of the good things of life. To examine the interconnections of migration and stratification, we address a mix of old and new questions, carrying out analyses newly enabled by a unique new data set on recent legal immigrants to the United States (the New Immigrant Survey). We look at immigrant processing and lost documents, depression due to the visa process, presentation of self, the race-ethnic composition of an immigrant cohort (made possible by the data for the first time since 1961), black immigration from Africa and the Americas, skin-color diversity among couples formed by U.S. citizen sponsors and immigrant spouses, and English fluency among children age 8–12 and their immigrant parents. We find, inter alia, that children of previously illegal parents are especially more likely to be fluent in English, that native-born U.S. citizen women tend to marry darker, that immigrant applicants who go through the visa process while already in the United States are more likely to have their documents lost and to suffer visa depression, and that immigration, by introducing accomplished black immigrants from Africa (notably via the visa lottery), threatens to overturn racial and skin color associations with skill. Our analyses show the mutual embeddedness of migration and stratification in the unfolding of the immigrants' and their children's life chances and the impacts on the stratification structure of the United States. PMID:26321771

  13. Cloning of the first human anti-JCPyV/VP1 neutralizing monoclonal antibody: epitope definition and implications in risk stratification of patients under natalizumab therapy.

    PubMed

    Diotti, Roberta Antonia; Mancini, Nicasio; Clementi, Nicola; Sautto, Giuseppe; Moreno, Guisella Janett; Criscuolo, Elena; Cappelletti, Francesca; Man, Petr; Forest, Eric; Remy, Louise; Giannecchini, Simone; Clementi, Massimo; Burioni, Roberto

    2014-08-01

    JC virus (JCPyV) has gained novel clinical importance as cause of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare demyelinating disease recently associated to immunomodulatory drugs, such as natalizumab used in multiple sclerosis (MS) cases. Little is known about the mechanisms leading to PML, and this makes the need of PML risk stratification among natalizumab-treated patients very compelling. Clinical and laboratory-based risk-stratification markers have been proposed, one of these is represented by the JCPyV-seropositive status, which includes about 54% of MS patients. We recently proposed to investigate the possible protective role of neutralizing humoral immune response in preventing JCPyV reactivation. In this proof-of-concept study, by cloning the first human monoclonal antibody (GRE1) directed against a neutralizing epitope on JCPyV/VP1, we optimized a robust anti-JCPyV neutralization assay. This allowed us to evaluate the neutralizing activity in JCPyV-positive sera from MS patients, demonstrating the lack of correlation between the level of anti-JCPyV antibody and anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity. Relevant consequences may derive from future clinical studies induced by these findings; indeed the study of the serum anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity could allow not only a better risk stratification of the patients during natalizumab treatment, but also a better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms leading to PML, highlighting the contribution of peripheral versus central nervous system JCPyV reactivation. Noteworthy, the availability of GRE1 could allow the design of novel immunoprophylactic strategies during the immunomodulatory treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Applying Latent Class Analysis to Risk Stratification for Perioperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Intraabdominal General Surgery.

    PubMed

    Kim, Minjae; Wall, Melanie M; Li, Guohua

    2016-07-01

    Perioperative risk stratification is often performed using individual risk factors without consideration of the syndemic of these risk factors. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify the classes of comorbidities and risk factors associated with perioperative mortality in patients presenting for intraabdominal general surgery. The 2005 to 2010 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to obtain a cohort of patients undergoing intraabdominal general surgery. Risk factors and comorbidities were entered into LCA models to identify the latent classes, and individuals were assigned to a class based on the highest posterior probability of class membership. Relative risk regression was used to determine the associations between the latent classes and 30-day mortality, with adjustments for procedure. A 9-class model was fit using LCA on 466,177 observations. After combining classes with similar adjusted mortality risks, 5 risk classes were obtained. Compared with the class with average mortality risk (class 4), the risk ratios (95% confidence interval) ranged from 0.020 (0.014-0.027) in the lowest risk class (class 1) to 6.75 (6.46-7.02) in the highest risk class. After adjusting for procedure and ASA physical status, the latent classes remained significantly associated with 30-day mortality. The addition of the risk class variable to a model containing ASA physical status and surgical procedure demonstrated a significant increase in the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.892 vs 0.915; P < 0.0001). Latent classes of risk factors and comorbidities in patients undergoing intraabdominal surgery are predictive of 30-day mortality independent of the ASA physical status and improve risk prediction with the ASA physical status.

  15. The risk stratification and prognostic evaluation of soluble programmed death-1 on patients with sepsis in emergency department.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yongzhen; Jia, Yumei; Li, Chunsheng; Fang, Yingying; Shao, Rui

    2018-01-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of soluble programmed death-1 (sPD-1) for risk stratification and prediction of 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis, we compared serum sPD-1 with procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score. A total of 60 healthy volunteers and 595 emergency department (ED) patients were recruited for this prospective cohort study. According to the severity of their condition on ED arrival, the patients were allocated to the systemic inflammatory response syndrome group (130 cases), sepsis group (276 cases), severe sepsis group (121 cases), and septic shock group (68 cases). In addition, all patients with sepsis were also divided into the survivor group (349 cases) and nonsurvivor group (116 cases) according to the 28-day outcomes. When the severity of sepsis increased, the levels of sPD-1 gradually increased. The levels of sPD-1, PCT, CRP and the MEDS score were also higher in the nonsurvivor group compared to the survivor group. Logistic regression suggested that sPD-1, PCT, and the MEDS score were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality of patients with sepsis. Area under the curve (AUC) of sPD-1, PCT and the MEDS score for 28-day mortality was 0.725, 0.693, and 0.767, respectively, and the AUC was improved when all 3 factors were combined (0.843). Serum sPD-1 is positively correlated with the severity of sepsis, and it is valuable for risk stratification of patients and prediction of 28-day mortality. Combining sPD-1 with PCT and the MEDS score improves the prognostic evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. A clinical risk stratification tool for predicting treatment resistance in major depressive disorder.

    PubMed

    Perlis, Roy H

    2013-07-01

    Early identification of depressed individuals at high risk for treatment resistance could be helpful in selecting optimal setting and intensity of care. At present, validated tools to facilitate this risk stratification are rarely used in psychiatric practice. Data were drawn from the first two treatment levels of a multicenter antidepressant effectiveness study in major depressive disorder, the STAR*D (Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression) cohort. This cohort was divided into training, testing, and validation subsets. Only clinical or sociodemographic variables available by or readily amenable to self-report were considered. Multivariate models were developed to discriminate individuals reaching remission with a first or second pharmacological treatment trial from those not reaching remission despite two trials. A logistic regression model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve exceeding .71 in training, testing, and validation cohorts and maintained good calibration across cohorts. Performance of three alternative models with machine learning approaches--a naïve Bayes classifier and a support vector machine, and a random forest model--was less consistent. Similar performance was observed between more and less severe depression, men and women, and primary versus specialty care sites. A web-based calculator was developed that implements this tool and provides graphical estimates of risk. Risk for treatment resistance among outpatients with major depressive disorder can be estimated with a simple model incorporating baseline sociodemographic and clinical features. Future studies should examine the performance of this model in other clinical populations and its utility in treatment selection or clinical trial design. Copyright © 2013 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Correction of Population Stratification in Large Multi-Ethnic Association Studies

    PubMed Central

    Serre, David; Montpetit, Alexandre; Paré, Guillaume; Engert, James C.; Yusuf, Salim; Keavney, Bernard; Hudson, Thomas J.; Anand, Sonia

    2008-01-01

    Background The vast majority of genetic risk factors for complex diseases have, taken individually, a small effect on the end phenotype. Population-based association studies therefore need very large sample sizes to detect significant differences between affected and non-affected individuals. Including thousands of affected individuals in a study requires recruitment in numerous centers, possibly from different geographic regions. Unfortunately such a recruitment strategy is likely to complicate the study design and to generate concerns regarding population stratification. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed 9,751 individuals representing three main ethnic groups - Europeans, Arabs and South Asians - that had been enrolled from 154 centers involving 52 countries for a global case/control study of acute myocardial infarction. All individuals were genotyped at 103 candidate genes using 1,536 SNPs selected with a tagging strategy that captures most of the genetic diversity in different populations. We show that relying solely on self-reported ethnicity is not sufficient to exclude population stratification and we present additional methods to identify and correct for stratification. Conclusions/Significance Our results highlight the importance of carefully addressing population stratification and of carefully “cleaning” the sample prior to analyses to obtain stronger signals of association and to avoid spurious results. PMID:18196181

  18. Comparison of Accuracy of Diabetes Risk Score and Components of the Metabolic Syndrome in Assessing Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in Inter99 Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Shafizadeh, Tracy B.; Moler, Edward J.; Kolberg, Janice A.; Nguyen, Uyen Thao; Hansen, Torben; Jorgensen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

    2011-01-01

    Background Given the increasing worldwide incidence of diabetes, methods to assess diabetes risk which would identify those at highest risk are needed. We compared two risk-stratification approaches for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and a previously developed diabetes risk score, PreDx® Diabetes Risk Score (DRS). DRS assesses 5 yr risk of incident T2DM based on the measurement of 7 biomarkers in fasting blood. Methodology/Principal Findings DRS was evaluated in baseline serum samples from 4,128 non-diabetic subjects in the Inter99 cohort (Danes aged 30–60) for whom diabetes outcomes at 5 years were known. Subjects were classified as having MetS based on the presence of at least 3 MetS risk factors in baseline clinical data. The sensitivity and false positive rate for predicting diabetes using MetS was compared to DRS. When the sensitivity was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly lower false positive rate. Similarly, when the false positive rate was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly higher specificity. In further analyses, subjects were classified by presence of 0–2, 3 or 4–5 risk factors with matching proportions of subjects distributed among three DRS groups. Comparison between the two risk stratification schemes, MetS risk factors and DRS, were evaluated using Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). Comparing risk stratification by DRS to MetS factors in the total population, the NRI was 0.146 (p = 0.008) demonstrating DRS provides significantly improved stratification. Additionally, the relative risk of T2DM differed by 15 fold between the low and high DRS risk groups, but only 8-fold between the low and high risk MetS groups. Conclusions/Significance DRS provides a more accurate assessment of risk for diabetes than MetS. This improved performance may allow clinicians to focus preventive strategies on those most in need of urgent intervention. PMID:21829540

  19. Clinical potentials of methylator phenotype in stage 4 high-risk neuroblastoma: an open challenge.

    PubMed

    Banelli, Barbara; Merlo, Domenico Franco; Allemanni, Giorgio; Forlani, Alessandra; Romani, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Approximately 20% of stage 4 high-risk neuroblastoma patients are alive and disease-free 5 years after disease onset while the remaining experience rapid and fatal progression. Numerous findings underline the prognostic role of methylation of defined target genes in neuroblastoma without taking into account the clinical and biological heterogeneity of this disease. In this report we have investigated the methylation of the PCDHB cluster, the most informative member of the "Methylator Phenotype" in neuroblastoma, hypothesizing that if this epigenetic mark can predict overall and progression free survival in high-risk stage 4 neuroblastoma, it could be utilized to improve the risk stratification of the patients, alone or in conjunction with the previously identified methylation of the SFN gene (14.3.3sigma) that can accurately predict outcome in these patients. We have utilized univariate and multivariate models to compare the prognostic power of PCDHB methylation in terms of overall and progression free survival, quantitatively determined by pyrosequencing, with that of other markers utilized for the patients' stratification utilizing methylation thresholds calculated on neuroblastoma at stage 1-4 and only on stage 4, high-risk patients. Our results indicate that PCDHB accurately distinguishes between high- and intermediate/low risk stage 4 neuroblastoma in agreement with the established risk stratification criteria. However PCDHB cannot predict outcome in the subgroup of stage 4 patients at high-risk whereas methylation levels of SFN are suggestive of a "methylation gradient" associated with tumor aggressiveness as suggested by the finding of a higher threshold that defines a subset of patients with an extremely severe disease (OS <24 months). Because of the heterogeneity of neuroblastoma we believe that clinically relevant methylation markers should be selected and tested on homogeneous groups of patients rather than on patients at all stages.

  20. Implications of delayed bone marrow aspirations at the end of treatment induction for risk stratification and outcome in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

    PubMed

    Zuna, Jan; Moericke, Anja; Arens, Mari; Koehler, Rolf; Panzer-Grümayer, Renate; Bartram, Claus R; Fischer, Susanna; Fronkova, Eva; Zaliova, Marketa; Schrauder, André; Stanulla, Martin; Zimmermann, Martin; Trka, Jan; Stary, Jan; Attarbaschi, Andishe; Mann, Georg; Schrappe, Martin; Cario, Gunnar

    2016-06-01

    Minimal residual disease (MRD) at the end of induction therapy is important for risk stratification of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), but bone marrow (BM) aspiration is often postponed or must be repeated to fulfil qualitative and quantitative criteria for morphological assessment of haematological remission and/or MRD analysis. The impact of BM aspiration delay on measured MRD levels and resulting risk stratification is currently unknown. We analysed paired MRD data of 289 paediatric ALL patients requiring a repeat BM aspiration. MRD levels differed in 108 patients (37%) with a decrease in the majority (85/108). This would have resulted in different risk group allocation in 64 of 289 patients (23%) when applying the ALL-Berlin-Frankfurt-Münster 2000 criteria. MRD change was associated with the duration of delay; 40% of patients with delay ≥7 days had a shift to lower MRD levels compared to only 18% after a shorter delay. Patients MRD-positive at the original but MRD-negative at the repeat BM aspiration (n = 50) had a worse 5-year event-free survival than those already negative at first aspiration (n = 115) (86 ± 5% vs. 94 ± 2%; P = 0·024). We conclude that BM aspirations should be pursued as scheduled in the protocol because delayed MRD sampling at end of induction may result in false-low MRD load and distort MRD-based risk assessment. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Biomarkers from distinct biological pathways improve early risk stratification in medical emergency patients: the multinational, prospective, observational TRIAGE study.

    PubMed

    Schuetz, Philipp; Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Haubitz, Sebastian; Faessler, Lukas; Kutz, Alexander; Conca, Antoinette; Reutlinger, Barbara; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat

    2015-10-29

    Early risk stratification in the emergency department (ED) is vital to reduce time to effective treatment in high-risk patients and to improve patient flow. Yet, there is a lack of investigations evaluating the incremental usefulness of multiple biomarkers measured upon admission from distinct biological pathways for predicting fatal outcome and high initial treatment urgency in unselected ED patients in a multicenter and multinational setting. We included consecutive, adult, medical patients seeking ED care into this observational, cohort study in Switzerland, France and the USA. We recorded initial clinical parameters and batch-measured prognostic biomarkers of inflammation (pro-adrenomedullin [ProADM]), stress (copeptin) and infection (procalcitonin). During a 30-day follow-up, 331 of 7132 (4.6 %) participants reached the primary endpoint of death within 30 days. In logistic regression models adjusted for conventional risk factors available at ED admission, all three biomarkers strongly predicted the risk of death (AUC 0.83, 0.78 and 0.75), ICU admission (AUC 0.67, 0.69 and 0.62) and high initial triage priority (0.67, 0.66 and 0.58). For the prediction of death, ProADM significantly improved regression models including (a) clinical information available at ED admission (AUC increase from 0.79 to 0.84), (b) full clinical information at ED discharge (AUC increase from 0.85 to 0.88), and (c) triage information (AUC increase from 0.67 to 0.83) (p <0.01 for each comparison). Similarly, ProADM also improved clinical models for prediction of ICU admission and high initial treatment urgency. Results were robust in regard to predefined patient subgroups by center, main diagnosis, presenting symptoms, age and gender. Combination of clinical information with results of blood biomarkers measured upon ED admission allows early and more adequate risk stratification in individual unselected medical ED patients. A randomized trial is needed to answer the question whether

  2. Pretreatment risk stratification of feeding tube use in patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy for head and neck cancer.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Nigel J; Jackson, James E; Smith, Jennifer G; Wada, Morikatsu; Schneider, Michal; Poulsen, Michael; Rolfo, Maureen; Fahandej, Maziar; Gan, Hui; Joon, Daryl Lim; Khoo, Vincent

    2018-05-13

    The purpose of this study was to establish a risk stratification model for feeding tube use in patients who undergo intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for head and neck cancers. One hundred thirty-nine patients treated with definitive IMRT (+/- concurrent chemotherapy) for head and neck mucosal cancers were included in this study. Patients were recommended a prophylactic feeding tube and followed up by a dietician for at least 8 weeks postradiotherapy (post-RT). Potential prognostic factors were analyzed for risk and duration of feeding tube use for at least 25% of dietary requirements. Many variables had significant effects on risk and/or duration of feeding tube use in univariate analyses. Subsequent multivariable analysis showed that T classification ≥3 and level 2 lymphadenopathy were the best independent significant predictors of higher risk and duration of feeding tube use, respectively, in oral cavity, pharyngeal, and supraglottic primaries. In patients treated with definitive IMRT, T classification ≥3 and level 2 lymphadenopathy can potentially stratify patients into 4 risk groups for developing severe dysphagia requiring feeding tube use. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Dynamic Risk Stratification in Stage I Papillary Thyroid Cancer Patients Younger Than 45 Years of Age.

    PubMed

    Sung, Tae-Yon; Cho, Jae Won; Lee, Yu-Mi; Lee, Yi Ho; Kwon, Hyemi; Jeon, Min Ji; Kim, Won Gu; Choi, Young Jun; Song, Dong Eun; Chung, Ki-Wook; Yoon, Jong Ho; Hong, Suck Joon

    2017-11-01

    This study validated the dynamic risk stratification (DRS) system with regard to its association with structural recurrence and risk factors associated with non-excellent responses in patients <45 years with stage I classical papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). This historical cohort study included 598 patients with stage I classical PTC <45 years of age treated with total thyroidectomy followed by radioactive iodine remnant ablation (n = 440), total thyroidectomy without radioactive iodine remnant ablation (n = 23), and thyroid lobectomy alone (n = 135). The median follow-up period was 123 months. Structural recurrence occurred in 4.2% (n = 18/432) of the patients with an excellent response, 17.1% (18/105) of patients with an indeterminate response, 44.7% (17/38) of patients with a biochemically incomplete response, and 82.6% (19/23) of patients with a structurally incomplete response (p < 0.001) during the follow-up. The disease-free survival curves of each response showed significant differences (p < 0.001). Extensive extrathyroidal extension and extranodal extension were the independent risk factors associated with non-excellent response (p < 0.05). DRS may reduce unnecessary additional treatments by reclassifying initial risk estimates of structural recurrence. Furthermore, applying the risk factors associated with non-excellent response to initial therapy may be a more useful and viable surrogate of the risk for structural recurrence in stage I PTC patients <45 years of age.

  4. Diagnostic performance of an acoustic-based system for coronary artery disease risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Winther, Simon; Nissen, Louise; Schmidt, Samuel Emil; Westra, Jelmer Sybren; Rasmussen, Laust Dupont; Knudsen, Lars Lyhne; Madsen, Lene Helleskov; Kirk Johansen, Jane; Larsen, Bjarke Skogstad; Struijk, Johannes Jan; Frost, Lars; Holm, Niels Ramsing; Christiansen, Evald Høj; Botker, Hans Erik; Bøttcher, Morten

    2018-06-01

    Diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to require substantial healthcare resources. Acoustic analysis of transcutaneous heart sounds of cardiac movement and intracoronary turbulence due to obstructive coronary disease could potentially change this. The aim of this study was thus to test the diagnostic accuracy of a new portable acoustic device for detection of CAD. We included 1675 patients consecutively with low to intermediate likelihood of CAD who had been referred for cardiac CT angiography. If significant obstruction was suspected in any coronary segment, patients were referred to invasive angiography and fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment. Heart sound analysis was performed in all patients. A predefined acoustic CAD-score algorithm was evaluated; subsequently, we developed and validated an updated CAD-score algorithm that included both acoustic features and clinical risk factors. Low risk is indicated by a CAD-score value ≤20. Haemodynamically significant CAD assessed from FFR was present in 145 (10.0%) patients. In the entire cohort, the predefined CAD-score had a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 44%. In total, 50% had an updated CAD-score value ≤20. At this cut-off, sensitivity was 81% (95% CI 73% to 87%), specificity 53% (95% CI 50% to 56%), positive predictive value 16% (95% CI 13% to 18%) and negative predictive value 96% (95% CI 95% to 98%) for diagnosing haemodynamically significant CAD. Sound-based detection of CAD enables risk stratification superior to clinical risk scores. With a negative predictive value of 96%, this new acoustic rule-out system could potentially supplement clinical assessment to guide decisions on the need for further diagnostic investigation. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02264717; Results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  5. From Statistical Significance to Clinical Relevance: A Simple Algorithm to Integrate BNP and the Seattle Heart Failure Model for Risk Stratification in Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    AbouEzzeddine, Omar F.; French, Benjamin; Mirzoyev, Sultan A.; Jaffe, Allan S; Levy, Wayne C.; Fang, James C.; Sweitzer, Nancy K.; Cappola, Thomas P.; Redfield, Margaret M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Heart failure (HF) guidelines recommend brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and multivariable risk-scores such as the Seattle HF Model (SHFM) to predict risk in HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). A practical way to integrate information from these two prognostic tools is lacking. We sought to establish a SHFM+BNP risk-stratification algorithm. Methods The retrospective derivation cohort included consecutive patients with HFrEF at Mayo. One-year outcome (death, transplantation or ventricular assist device) was assessed. The SHFM+BNP algorithm was derived by stratifying patients within SHFM-predicted risk categories (≤2.5%, 2.6–≤10%, >10%) according to BNP above or below 700 pg/mL and comparing SHFM-predicted and observed event rates within each SHFM+BNP category. The algorithm was validated in a prospective, multicenter HFrEF registry (Penn HF Study). Results Derivation (n=441; one-year event rate 17%) and validation (n=1513; one-year event rate 12%) cohorts differed with the former being older and more likely ischemic with worse symptoms, lower EF, worse renal function, higher BNP and SHFM scores. In both cohorts, across the three SHFM-predicted risk strata, a BNP>700 pg/ml consistently identified patients with approximately three-fold the risk that the SHFM would have otherwise estimated regardless stage of HF, intensity and duration of HF-therapy, and comorbidities. Conversely, the SHFM was appropriately calibrated in patients with a BNP<700 pg/ml. Conclusion The simple SHFM+BNP algorithm displays stable performance across diverse HFrEF cohorts and may enhance risk stratification to enable appropriate decisions regarding HF therapeutic or palliative strategies. PMID:27021278

  6. Proposal for a new risk stratification classification for meningioma based on patient age, WHO tumor grade, size, localization, and karyotype

    PubMed Central

    Domingues, Patrícia Henriques; Sousa, Pablo; Otero, Álvaro; Gonçalves, Jesus Maria; Ruiz, Laura; de Oliveira, Catarina; Lopes, Maria Celeste; Orfao, Alberto; Tabernero, Maria Dolores

    2014-01-01

    Background Tumor recurrence remains the major clinical complication of meningiomas, the majority of recurrences occurring among WHO grade I/benign tumors. In the present study, we propose a new scoring system for the prognostic stratification of meningioma patients based on analysis of a large series of meningiomas followed for a median of >5 years. Methods Tumor cytogenetics were systematically investigated by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization in 302 meningioma samples, and the proposed classification was further validated in an independent series of cases (n = 132) analyzed by high-density (500K) single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays. Results Overall, we found an adverse impact on patient relapse-free survival (RFS) for males, presence of brain edema, younger patients (<55 years), tumor size >50 mm, tumor localization at intraventricular and anterior cranial base areas, WHO grade II/III meningiomas, and complex karyotypes; the latter 5 variables showed an independent predictive value in multivariate analysis. Based on these parameters, a prognostic score was established for each individual case, and patients were stratified into 4 risk categories with significantly different (P < .001) outcomes. These included a good prognosis group, consisting of approximately 20% of cases, that showed a RFS of 100% ± 0% at 10 years and a very poor-prognosis group with a RFS rate of 0% ± 0% at 10 years. The prognostic impact of the scoring system proposed here was also retained when WHO grade I cases were considered separately (P < .001). Conclusions Based on this risk-stratification classification, different strategies may be adopted for follow-up, and eventually also for treatment, of meningioma patients at different risks for relapse. PMID:24536048

  7. Doppler Endoscopic Probe Monitoring of Blood Flow Improves Risk Stratification and Outcomes of Patients With Severe Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Dennis M; Kovacs, Thomas O G; Ohning, Gordon V; Ghassemi, Kevin; Machicado, Gustavo A; Dulai, Gareth S; Sedarat, Alireza; Jutabha, Rome; Gornbein, Jeffrey

    2017-05-01

    For 4 decades, stigmata of recent hemorrhage in patients with nonvariceal lesions have been used for risk stratification and endoscopic hemostasis. The arterial blood flow that underlies the stigmata rarely is monitored, but can be used to determine risk for rebleeding. We performed a randomized controlled trial to determine whether Doppler endoscopic probe monitoring of blood flow improves risk stratification and outcomes in patients with severe nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. In a single-blind study performed at 2 referral centers we assigned 148 patients with severe nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (125 with ulcers, 19 with Dieulafoy's lesions, and 4 with Mallory Weiss tears) to groups that underwent standard, visually guided endoscopic hemostasis (control, n = 76), or endoscopic hemostasis assisted by Doppler monitoring of blood flow under the stigmata (n = 72). The primary outcome was the rate of rebleeding after 30 days; secondary outcomes were complications, death, and need for transfusions, surgery, or angiography. There was a significant difference in the rates of lesion rebleeding within 30 days of endoscopic hemostasis in the control group (26.3%) vs the Doppler group (11.1%) (P = .0214). The odds ratio for rebleeding with Doppler monitoring was 0.35 (95% confidence interval, 0.143-0.8565) and the number needed to treat was 7. In a randomized controlled trial of patients with severe upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage from ulcers or other lesions, Doppler probe guided endoscopic hemostasis significantly reduced 30-day rates of rebleeding compared with standard, visually guided hemostasis. Guidelines for nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding should incorporate these results. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT00732212 (CLIN-013-07F). Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Malaria ecotypes and stratification.

    PubMed

    Schapira, Allan; Boutsika, Konstantina

    2012-01-01

    To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna

  9. Maximization of the usage of coronary CTA derived plaque information using a machine learning based algorithm to improve risk stratification; insights from the CONFIRM registry.

    PubMed

    van Rosendael, Alexander R; Maliakal, Gabriel; Kolli, Kranthi K; Beecy, Ashley; Al'Aref, Subhi J; Dwivedi, Aeshita; Singh, Gurpreet; Panday, Mohit; Kumar, Amit; Ma, Xiaoyue; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Andreini, Daniele; Bax, Jeroen J; Berman, Daniel S; Budoff, Matthew J; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J W; Cury, Ricardo C; DeLago, Augustin; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon A; Maffei, Erica; Marques, Hugo; Pontone, Gianluca; Raff, Gilbert L; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Shaw, Leslee J; Villines, Todd C; Gransar, Heidi; Lu, Yao; Jones, Erica C; Peña, Jessica M; Lin, Fay Y; Min, James K

    Machine learning (ML) is a field in computer science that demonstrated to effectively integrate clinical and imaging data for the creation of prognostic scores. The current study investigated whether a ML score, incorporating only the 16 segment coronary tree information derived from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), provides enhanced risk stratification compared with current CCTA based risk scores. From the multi-center CONFIRM registry, patients were included with complete CCTA risk score information and ≥3 year follow-up for myocardial infarction and death (primary endpoint). Patients with prior coronary artery disease were excluded. Conventional CCTA risk scores (conventional CCTA approach, segment involvement score, duke prognostic index, segment stenosis score, and the Leaman risk score) and a score created using ML were compared for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Only 16 segment based coronary stenosis (0%, 1-24%, 25-49%, 50-69%, 70-99% and 100%) and composition (calcified, mixed and non-calcified plaque) were provided to the ML model. A boosted ensemble algorithm (extreme gradient boosting; XGBoost) was used and the entire data was randomly split into a training set (80%) and testing set (20%). First, tuned hyperparameters were used to generate a trained model from the training data set (80% of data). Second, the performance of this trained model was independently tested on the unseen test set (20% of data). In total, 8844 patients (mean age 58.0 ± 11.5 years, 57.7% male) were included. During a mean follow-up time of 4.6 ± 1.5 years, 609 events occurred (6.9%). No CAD was observed in 48.7% (3.5% event), non-obstructive CAD in 31.8% (6.8% event), and obstructive CAD in 19.5% (15.6% event). Discrimination of events as expressed by AUC was significantly better for the ML based approach (0.771) vs the other scores (ranging from 0.685 to 0.701), P < 0.001. Net reclassification improvement

  10. A fast and cost-effective method for apolipoprotein E isotyping as an alternative to APOE genotyping for patient screening and stratification.

    PubMed

    Calero, Olga; García-Albert, Luis; Rodríguez-Martín, Andrés; Veiga, Sergio; Calero, Miguel

    2018-04-13

    Apolipoprotein E (apoE) is a 34 kDa glycoprotein involved in lipid metabolism. The human APOE gene encodes for three different apoE protein isoforms: E2, E3 and E4. The interest in apoE isoforms is high for epidemiological research, patient stratification and identification of those at increased risk for clinical trials and prevention. The isoform apoE4 is associated with increased risk for coronary heart and Alzheimer's diseases. This paper describes a method for specifically detecting the apoE4 isoform from biological fluids by taking advantage of the capacity of apoE to bind "specifically" to polystyrene surfaces as capture and a specific anti-apoE4 monoclonal antibody as reporter. Our results indicate that the apoE-polystyrene binding interaction is highly stable, resistant to detergents and acid and basic washes. The methodology here described is accurate, easily implementable, fast and cost-effective. Although at present, our technique is unable to discriminate homozygous APOE ε4/ε4 from APOE ε3/ε4 and ε2/ε4 heterozygous, it opens new avenues for the development of inexpensive, yet effective, tests for the detection of apoE4 for patients' stratification. Preliminary results indicated that this methodology is also adaptable into turbidimetric platforms, which make it a good candidate for clinical implementation through its translation to the clinical analysis routine.

  11. Power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify pulmonary hypertension patients according to European society of cardiology exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs.

    PubMed

    Rehman, Michaela B; Garcia, Rodrigue; Christiaens, Luc; Larrieu-Ardilouze, Elisa; Howard, Luke S; Nihoyannopoulos, Petros

    2018-04-15

    Right ventricular function is the major determinant of morbidity and mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The ESC risk assessment strategy for PAH is based on clinical status, exercise testing, NTproBNP, imaging and haemodynamics but does not include right ventricular function. Our aims were to test the power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify PAH patients according to ESC exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs and to determine if the classification power of echocardiographic parameters varied in chronic thrombo-embolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). We prospectively and consecutively recruited 46 PAH patients and 42 CTEPH patients referred for cardio-pulmonary exercise testing and comprehensive transthoracic echocardiography. Exercise testing parameters analyzed were peak oxygen consumption, percentage of predicted maximal oxygen consumption and the slope of ventilation against carbon dioxide production. Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the optimal diagnostic cut-off values of echocardiographic parameters for classifying the patients in intermediate or high risk category according to exercise testing. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function were the best for classifying in PAH (area under the curve 0.815 to 0.935). Measurements of right ventricular pressure overload (0.810 to 0.909) were optimal for classifying according to exercise testing in CTEPH. Measurements of left ventricular function were of no use in either group. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function can classify according to exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs in PAH. However, this is not the case in CTEPH where pressure overload, rather than right ventricular function seems to be linked to exercise performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Cardiovascular risk stratification in overweight or obese patients in primary prevention. Implications for use of statins.

    PubMed

    Masson, Walter; Lobo, Martín; Huerín, Melina; Molinero, Graciela; Manente, Diego; Pángaro, Mario; Vitagliano, Laura; Zylbersztejn, Horacio

    2015-02-01

    Cardiovascular risk estimation in patients with overweight/obesity is not standardized. Our objectives were to stratify cardiovascular risk using different scores, to analyze use of statins, to report the prevalence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP), and to determine the optimal cut-off point (OCP) of scores that discriminate between subjects with or without CAP. Non-diabetic patients with overweight or obesity in primary prevention were enrolled. The Framingham score (FS), the European score (ES), and the score proposed by the new American guidelines (NS) were calculated, and statin indication was evaluated. Prevalence of CAP was determined by ultrasound examination. A ROC analysis was performed. A total of 474 patients (67% with overweight and 33% obese) were enrolled into the study. The FS classified the largest number of subjects as low risk. PAC prevalence was higher in obese as compared to overweight subjects (44.8% vs. 36.1%, P=.04). According to the FS, ES, and NS respectively, 26.7%, 39.1%, and 39.1% of overweight subjects and 28.6%, 39.0%, and 39.0% of obese subjects had an absolute indication for statins. All three scores were shown to acceptably discriminate between subjects with and without CAP (area under the curve>0.7). The OCPs evaluated did not agree with the risk category values. Risk stratification and use of statins varied in the overweight/obese population depending on the function used. Understanding of the relationship between scores and presence of CAP may optimize risk estimate. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. Validation of risk stratification for children with febrile neutropenia in a pediatric oncology unit in India.

    PubMed

    Das, Anirban; Trehan, Amita; Oberoi, Sapna; Bansal, Deepak

    2017-06-01

    The study aims to validate a score predicting risk of complications in pediatric patients with chemotherapy-related febrile neutropenia (FN) and evaluate the performance of previously published models for risk stratification. Children diagnosed with cancer and presenting with FN were evaluated in a prospective single-center study. A score predicting the risk of complications, previously derived in the unit, was validated on a prospective cohort. Performance of six predictive models published from geographically distinct settings was assessed on the same cohort. Complications were observed in 109 (26.3%) of 414 episodes of FN over 15 months. A risk score based on undernutrition (two points), time from last chemotherapy (<7 days = two points), presence of a nonupper respiratory focus of infection (two points), C-reactive protein (>60 mg/l = five points), and absolute neutrophil count (<100 per μl = two points) was used to stratify patients into "low risk" (score <7, n = 208) and assessed using the following parameters: overall performance (Nagelkerke R 2 = 34.4%), calibration (calibration slope = 0.39; P = 0.25 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test), discrimination (c-statistic = 0.81), overall sensitivity (86%), negative predictive value (93%), and clinical net benefit (0.43). Six previously published rules demonstrated inferior performance in this cohort. An indigenous decision rule using five simple predefined variables was successful in identifying children at risk for complications. Prediction models derived in developed nations may not be appropriate for low-middle-income settings and need to be validated before use. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Clinically Feasible Stratification of 3-Year Chronic Disease Risk in Primary Care: The Mental Health Integration Risk Score.

    PubMed

    May, Heidi T; Reiss-Brennan, Brenda; Brunisholz, Kimberly D; Horne, Benjamin D

    Depression is a common illness that imposes a disproportionately large health burden. Depression is generally associated with a higher prevalence of chronic disease risk factors and may contribute to higher chronic disease risk. This study aimed to create and validate sex-specific Mental Health Integration Risk Scores (MHIRS) that predict 3-year chronic disease diagnosis. MHIRS was created to predict the first diagnosis of any of the 10 chronic diseases in patients completing a Patient Health Questionnaire-9 Depression Survey who were free at baseline from those 10 chronic disease diagnoses. MHIRS used sex-specific weightings of Patient Health Questionnaire 9 results, age, and components of the complete metabolic profile and complete blood count in randomly chosen derivation (70%) and validation (30%) groups. Among females (N = 10,162, age: 48 ± 16), c-statistics for the composite chronic disease end point were 0.746 (0.725, 0.767) for the derivation group and 0.717 (0.682, 0.753) for the validation group, whereas males (N = 4615, age: 48 ± 15) had 0.755 (0.727, 0.783) and 0.742 (0.702, 0.782). In the validation group, MHIRS strata of low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories had hazard ratios (HR) for any 3-year chronic disease diagnosis among females of HR = 3.42 for moderate vs low and HR = 9.75 for high vs low, whereas males had HR = 4.80 and HR = 10.68, respectively (all p < 0.0001). A clinical decision tool comprised by depression severity and common laboratory tests, and MHIRS provides very good stratification of a 3-year chronic disease diagnosis. Designed to be calculated electronically by an electronic health record, MHIRS can be efficiently obtained by clinicians to identify patients at higher chronic disease risk who require further evaluation and more precise clinical management. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Psychosomatic Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Advantages of new cardiovascular risk-assessment strategies in high-risk patients with hypertension.

    PubMed

    Ruilope, Luis M; Segura, Julian

    2005-10-01

    Accurate assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with hypertension is important when planning appropriate treatment of modifiable risk factors. The causes of CVD are multifactorial, and hypertension seldom exists as an isolated risk factor. Classic models of risk assessment are more accurate than a simple counting of risk factors, but they are not generalizable to all populations. In addition, the risk associated with hypertension is graded, continuous, and independent of other risk factors, and this is not reflected in classic models of risk assessment. This article is intended to review both classic and newer models of CVD risk assessment. MEDLINE was searched for articles published between 1990 and 2005 that contained the terms cardiovascular disease, hypertension, or risk assessment. Articles describing major clinical trials, new data about cardiovascular risk, or global risk stratification were selected for review. Some patients at high long-term risk for CVD events (eg, patients aged <50 years with multiple risk factors) may go untreated because they do not meet the absolute risk-intervention threshold of 20% risk over 10 years with the classic model. Recognition of the limitations of classic risk-assessment models led to new guidelines, particularly those of the European Society of Hypertension-European Society of Cardiology. These guidelines view hypertension as one of many risk and disease factors that require treatment to decrease risk. These newer guidelines include a more comprehensive range of risk factors and more finely graded blood pressure ranges to stratify patients by degree of risk. Whether they accurately predict CVD risk in most populations is not known. Evidence from the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) study, which stratified patients by several risk and disease factors, highlights the predictive value of some newer CVD risk assessments. Modern risk assessments, which include blood pressure

  16. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Risk Stratification of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) by the Primary Care Physician Using the NAFLD Fibrosis Score.

    PubMed

    Tapper, Elliot B; Hunink, M G Myriam; Afdhal, Nezam H; Lai, Michelle; Sengupta, Neil

    2016-01-01

    The complications of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) are dependent on the presence of advanced fibrosis. Given the high prevalence of NAFLD in the US, the optimal evaluation of NAFLD likely involves triage by a primary care physician (PCP) with advanced disease managed by gastroenterologists. We compared the cost-effectiveness of fibrosis risk-assessment strategies in a cohort of 10,000 simulated American patients with NAFLD performed in either PCP or referral clinics using a decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model. The strategies included use of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), combination testing with NFS and VCTE, and liver biopsy (usual care by a specialist only). NFS and VCTE performance was obtained from a prospective cohort of 164 patients with NAFLD. Outcomes included cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and correct classification of fibrosis. Risk-stratification by the PCP using the NFS alone costs $5,985 per QALY while usual care costs $7,229/QALY. In the microsimulation, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000, the NFS alone in PCP clinic was the most cost-effective strategy in 94.2% of samples, followed by combination NFS/VCTE in the PCP clinic (5.6%) and usual care in 0.2%. The NFS based strategies yield the best biopsy-correct classification ratios (3.5) while the NFS/VCTE and usual care strategies yield more correct-classifications of advanced fibrosis at the cost of 3 and 37 additional biopsies per classification. Risk-stratification of patients with NAFLD primary care clinic is a cost-effective strategy that should be formally explored in clinical practice.

  17. Role of central obesity in risk stratification after an acute coronary event: does central obesity add prognostic value to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score in patients with acute coronary syndrome?

    PubMed

    Martins, Albino; Ribeiro, Sílvia; Gonçalves, Pierre; Correia, Adelino

    2013-10-01

    Accurate risk stratification is an important step in the initial management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and current guidelines recommend the use of risk scores, such as the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score (GRACE RS). Recent studies have suggested that abdominal obesity is associated with cardiovascular events in patients with ACS. However, little is known about the additional value of abdominal obesity beyond risk scores. The aim of our study was thus to assess whether waist circumference, a surrogate of abdominal adiposity, adds prognostic information to the GRACE RS. This was a retrospective cohort study of ACS patients admitted consecutively to a cardiac care unit between June 2009 and July 2010. The composite of all-cause mortality or myocardial reinfarction within six months of index hospitalization was used as the endpoint for the analysis. A total of 285 patients were studied, 96.1% admitted for myocardial infarction (with or without ST elevation) and 3.9% for unstable angina. At the end of the follow-up period, 10 patients had died and the composite endpoint had been reached in 27 patients (9.5%). More than 70% of the study population were obese or overweight, and abdominal obesity was present in 44.6%. The GRACE RS showed poor predictive accuracy (area under the curve 0.60), and most of the GRACE variables did not reach statistical significance in multivariate analysis. The addition of waist circumference to the GRACE RS did not improve its discriminatory performance. Abdominal obesity does not add prognostic information to the GRACE RS to predict six-month mortality or myocardial reinfarction.

  18. An efficient modeling method for thermal stratification simulation in a BWR suppression pool

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Haihua Zhao; Ling Zou; Hongbin Zhang

    2012-09-01

    The suppression pool in a BWR plant not only is the major heat sink within the containment system, but also provides major emergency cooling water for the reactor core. In several accident scenarios, such as LOCA and extended station blackout, thermal stratification tends to form in the pool after the initial rapid venting stage. Accurately predicting the pool stratification phenomenon is important because it affects the peak containment pressure; and the pool temperature distribution also affects the NPSHa (Available Net Positive Suction Head) and therefore the performance of the pump which draws cooling water back to the core. Current safetymore » analysis codes use 0-D lumped parameter methods to calculate the energy and mass balance in the pool and therefore have large uncertainty in prediction of scenarios in which stratification and mixing are important. While 3-D CFD methods can be used to analyze realistic 3D configurations, these methods normally require very fine grid resolution to resolve thin substructures such as jets and wall boundaries, therefore long simulation time. For mixing in stably stratified large enclosures, the BMIX++ code has been developed to implement a highly efficient analysis method for stratification where the ambient fluid volume is represented by 1-D transient partial differential equations and substructures such as free or wall jets are modeled with 1-D integral models. This allows very large reductions in computational effort compared to 3-D CFD modeling. The POOLEX experiments at Finland, which was designed to study phenomena relevant to Nordic design BWR suppression pool including thermal stratification and mixing, are used for validation. GOTHIC lumped parameter models are used to obtain boundary conditions for BMIX++ code and CFD simulations. Comparison between the BMIX++, GOTHIC, and CFD calculations against the POOLEX experimental data is discussed in detail.« less

  19. Palaeoceanography. Antarctic stratification and glacial CO2.

    PubMed

    Keeling, R F; Visbeck, M

    2001-08-09

    One way of accounting for lowered atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during Pleistocene glacial periods is by invoking the Antarctic stratification hypothesis, which links the reduction in CO2 to greater stratification of ocean surface waters around Antarctica. As discussed by Sigman and Boyle, this hypothesis assumes that increased stratification in the Antarctic zone (Fig. 1) was associated with reduced upwelling of deep waters around Antarctica, thereby allowing CO2 outgassing to be suppressed by biological production while also allowing biological production to decline, which is consistent with Antarctic sediment records. We point out here, however, that the response of ocean eddies to increased Antarctic stratification can be expected to increase, rather than reduce, the upwelling rate of deep waters around Antarctica. The stratification hypothesis may have difficulty in accommodating eddy feedbacks on upwelling within the constraints imposed by reconstructions of winds and Antarctic-zone productivity in glacial periods.

  20. Prognostic stratification improvement by integrating ID1/ID3/IGJ gene expression signature and immunophenotypic profile in adult patients with B-ALL.

    PubMed

    Cruz-Rodriguez, Nataly; Combita, Alba L; Enciso, Leonardo J; Raney, Lauren F; Pinzon, Paula L; Lozano, Olga C; Campos, Alba M; Peñaloza, Niyireth; Solano, Julio; Herrera, Maria V; Zabaleta, Jovanny; Quijano, Sandra

    2017-02-28

    Survival of adults with B-Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia requires accurate risk stratification of patients in order to provide the appropriate therapy. Contemporary techniques, using clinical and cytogenetic variables are incomplete for prognosis prediction. To improve the classification of adult patients diagnosed with B-ALL into prognosis groups, two strategies were examined and combined: the expression of the ID1/ID3/IGJ gene signature by RT-PCR and the immunophenotypic profile of 19 markers proposed in the EuroFlow protocol by Flow Cytometry in bone marrow samples. Both techniques were correlated to stratify patients into prognostic groups. An inverse relationship between survival and expression of the three-genes signature was observed and an immunophenotypic profile associated with clinical outcome was identified. Markers CD10 and CD20 were correlated with simultaneous overexpression of ID1, ID3 and IGJ. Patients with simultaneous expression of the poor prognosis gene signature and overexpression of CD10 or CD20, had worse Event Free Survival and Overall Survival than patients who had either the poor prognosis gene expression signature or only CD20 or CD10 overexpressed. By utilizing the combined evaluation of these two immunophenotypic markers along with the poor prognosis gene expression signature, the risk stratification can be significantly strengthened. Further studies including a large number of patients are needed to confirm these findings.

  1. Plaque Tissue Morphology-Based Stroke Risk Stratification Using Carotid Ultrasound: A Polling-Based PCA Learning Paradigm.

    PubMed

    Saba, Luca; Jain, Pankaj K; Suri, Harman S; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Araki, Tadashi; Singh, Bikesh K; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Gupta, Ajay; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

    2017-06-01

    Severe atherosclerosis disease in carotid arteries causes stenosis which in turn leads to stroke. Machine learning systems have been previously developed for plaque wall risk assessment using morphology-based characterization. The fundamental assumption in such systems is the extraction of the grayscale features of the plaque region. Even though these systems have the ability to perform risk stratification, they lack the ability to achieve higher performance due their inability to select and retain dominant features. This paper introduces a polling-based principal component analysis (PCA) strategy embedded in the machine learning framework to select and retain dominant features, resulting in superior performance. This leads to more stability and reliability. The automated system uses offline image data along with the ground truth labels to generate the parameters, which are then used to transform the online grayscale features to predict the risk of stroke. A set of sixteen grayscale plaque features is computed. Utilizing the cross-validation protocol (K = 10), and the PCA cutoff of 0.995, the machine learning system is able to achieve an accuracy of 98.55 and 98.83%corresponding to the carotidfar wall and near wall plaques, respectively. The corresponding reliability of the system was 94.56 and 95.63%, respectively. The automated system was validated against the manual risk assessment system and the precision of merit for same cross-validation settings and PCA cutoffs are 98.28 and 93.92%for the far and the near wall, respectively.PCA-embedded morphology-based plaque characterization shows a powerful strategy for risk assessment and can be adapted in clinical settings.

  2. Risk stratification for implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy: the role of the wearable cardioverter-defibrillator.

    PubMed

    Klein, Helmut U; Goldenberg, Ilan; Moss, Arthur J

    2013-08-01

    The benefit of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy depends upon appropriate evaluation of a persisting risk of sudden death and estimation of the patient's overall survival. Assessment of a stable and unchangeable arrhythmogenic substrate is often difficult. Structural abnormality and ventricular dysfunction, the two major risk parameters, may recover, and heart failure symptoms can improve so that ICD therapy may not be indicated. Risk stratification can take time while the patient continues to be at high risk of arrhythmic death, and patients may need temporary bridging by a defibrillator in cases of interrupted ICD therapy. The wearable cardioverter-defibrillator (WCD) combines a long-term electrocardiogram (ECG)-monitoring system with an external automatic defibrillator. The LIfeVest® (ZOLL, Pittsburgh, PA, USA) is composed of a garment, containing two defibrillation patch electrodes on the back, and an elastic belt with a front-defibrillation patch electrode and four non-adhesive ECG electrodes, connected to a monitoring and defibrillation unit. The WCD is a safe and effective tool to terminate ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation events, unless a conscious patient withholds shock delivery. It may be used in patients in the early phase after acute myocardial infarction with poor left ventricular function, after acute coronary revascularization procedures (percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (≤35%), in patients with acute heart failure in non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy of uncertain aetiology and prognosis. The WCD may be helpful in subjects with syncope of assumed tachyarrhythmia origin or in patients with inherited arrhythmia syndromes. The WCD may replace ICD implantation in patients waiting for heart transplantation or who need a ventricular-assist device. This review describes the technical details and characteristics of the WCD, discusses its

  3. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring for risk stratification in obese and non-obese subjects from 10 populations.

    PubMed

    Hansen, T W; Thijs, L; Li, Y; Boggia, J; Liu, Y; Asayama, K; Kikuya, M; Björklund-Bodegård, K; Ohkubo, T; Jeppesen, J; Torp-Pedersen, C; Dolan, E; Kuznetsova, T; Stolarz-Skrzypek, K; Tikhonoff, V; Malyutina, S; Casiglia, E; Nikitin, Y; Lind, L; Sandoya, E; Kawecka-Jaszcz, K; Filipovský, J; Imai, Y; Wang, J; O'Brien, E; Staessen, J A

    2014-09-01

    Overweight clusters with high blood pressure (BP), but the independent contribution of both risk factors remains insufficiently documented. In a prospective population study involving 8467 participants (mean age 54.6 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations, we studied the contribution of body mass index (BMI) to risk over and beyond BP, taking advantage of the superiority of ambulatory over conventional BP. Over 10.6 years (median), 1271 participants (15.0%) died and 1092 (12.9%), 637 (7.5%) and 443 (5.2%) experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular, cardiac or cerebrovascular event. Adjusted for sex and age, low BMI (<20.7 kg m(-2)) predicted death (hazard ratio (HR) vs average risk, 1.52; P<0.0001) and high BMI (> or = 30.9 kg m(-2)) predicted the cardiovascular end point (HR, 1.27; P=0.006). With adjustments including 24-h systolic BP, these HRs were 1.50 (P<0.001) and 0.98 (P=0.91), respectively. Across quartiles of the BMI distribution, 24-h and nighttime systolic BP predicted every end point (1.13 < or = standardized HR < or = 1.67; 0.046 < or = P<0.0001). The interaction between systolic BP and BMI was nonsignificant (P > or = .22). Excluding smokers removed the contribution of BMI categories to the prediction of mortality. In conclusion, BMI only adds to BP in risk stratification for mortality but not for cardiovascular outcomes. Smoking probably explains the association between increased mortality and low BMI.

  4. Implementation of a Risk Stratification and Management Pathway for Acute Chest Pain in the Emergency Department.

    PubMed

    Baugh, Christopher W; Greenberg, Jeffrey O; Mahler, Simon A; Kosowsky, Joshua M; Schuur, Jeremiah D; Parmar, Siddharth; Ciociolo, George R; Carr, Christina W; Ghazinouri, Roya; Scirica, Benjamin M

    2016-12-01

    Chest pain is a common complaint in the emergency department, and a small but important minority represents an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Variation in diagnostic workup, risk stratification, and management may result in underuse, misuse, and/or overuse of resources. From July to October 2014, we conducted a prospective cohort study in an academic medical center by implementing a Standardized Clinical Assessment and Management Plan (SCAMP) for chest pain based on the HEART score. In addition to capturing adherence to the SCAMP algorithm and reasons for any deviations, we measured troponin sample timing; rates of stress test utilization; length of stay (LOS); and 30-day rates of revascularization, ACS, and death. We identified 239 patients during the enrollment period who were eligible to enter the SCAMP, of whom 97 patients were entered into the pathway. Patients were risk stratified into one of 3 risk tiers: high (n = 3), intermediate (n = 40), and low (n = 54). Among low-risk patients, recommendations for troponin testing were not followed in 56%, and 11% received stress tests contrary to the SCAMP recommendation. None of the low-risk patients had elevated troponin measurements, and none had an abnormal stress test. Mean LOS in low-risk patients managed with discordant plans was 22:26 h/min, compared with 9:13 h/min in concordant patients (P < 0.001). Mean LOS in intermediate-risk patients with stress testing was 25:53 h/min, compared with 7:55 h/min for those without (P < 0.001). At 30 days, 10% of intermediate-risk patients and 0% of low-risk patients experienced an ACS event (risk difference 10% [0.7%-19%]); none experienced revascularization or death. The most frequently cited reason for deviation from the SCAMP was lack of confidence in the tool. Compliance with SCAMP recommendations for low- and intermediate-risk patients was poor, largely due to lack of confidence in the tool. However, in our study population, outcomes suggest that deviation

  5. A Comparative Review of Stratification Texts and Readers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peoples, Clayton D.

    2012-01-01

    Social stratification is a core substantive area within sociology. There are a number of textbooks and readers available on the market that deal with this central topic. In this article, I conduct a comparative review of (a) four stratification textbooks and (b) four stratification readers. (Contains 2 tables.)

  6. Nonobstructive Coronary Artery Disease by Coronary CT Angiography Improves Risk Stratification and Allocation of Statin Therapy.

    PubMed

    Emami, Hamed; Takx, Richard A P; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Janjua, Sumbal; Park, Jakob; Pursnani, Amit; Tawakol, Ahmed; Lu, Michael T; Ferencik, Maros; Hoffmann, Udo

    2017-09-01

    This study sought to determine prognostic value of nonobstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and to determine whether incorporation of this information into the pooled cohort equation reclassifies recommendations for statin therapy as defined by the 2013 guidelines for cholesterol management of the American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA). Detection of nonobstructive CAD by coronary computed tomography angiography may improve risk stratification and permit individualized and more appropriate allocation of statin therapy. This study determined the pooled hazard ratio of nonobstructive CAD for ASCVD events from published studies and incorporated this information into the ACC/AHA pooled cohort equation. The study calculated revised sex- and ethnicity-based 10-year ASCVD risk and determined boundaries corresponding to the original 7.5% risk for ASCVD events. It also assessed reclassification for statin eligibility by incorporating the results from meta-analysis to individual patients from a separate cohort. This study included 2 studies (2,295 subjects; 66% male; prevalence of nonobstructive CAD, 47%; median follow-up, 49 months; 67 ASCVD events). The hazard ratio of nonobstructive CAD for ASCVD events was 3.2 (95% confidence interval: 1.5 to 6.7). Incorporation of this information into the pooled cohort equation resulted in reclassification toward statin eligibility in individuals with nonobstructive CAD, with an original ASCVD score of 3.0% and 5.9% or higher in African-American women and men and a score of 4.4% and 4.6% or higher in Caucasian women and men, respectively. The absence of nonobstructive CAD resulted in reclassification toward statin ineligibility if the original ASCVD score was as 10.0% and 17.9% or lower in African-American women and men and 13.7% and 14.3% or lower in Caucasian women and men, respectively. Reclassification is observed in 14% of patients

  7. A national approach to diabetes foot risk stratification and foot care.

    PubMed

    Leese, G P; Stang, D; Pearson, D W

    2011-08-01

    The Scottish Diabetes Foot Action Group (SDG) has developed and introduced a national strategy plan for diabetic foot care across Scotland. This has involved the implementation of an evidence-based national foot screening and risk stratification programme that has already covered 61% of the population in just the first two years. Nationally agreed patient information foot leaflets and professional education material have been introduced, and a consensus for antibiotic use in the diabetic foot has been published. Information on multidisciplinary specialist foot services has been collected, indicating that 58% of Health Board areas have consultants with dedicated sessions in their job plan to a foot clinic, and 42% had integrated orthotic involvement. The SDG aims to increase these figures. Work has been undertaken to support local podiatry networks and improve communication between the specialist centre and the community. At a national level the SDG is working with Foot in Diabetes UK (FDUK) to recognize key podiatry skills by developing core competencies and a competency framework for the diabetes podiatrist and diabetes orthotist. The annual Scottish Diabetes Survey indicates some improvement in amputation rates with prevalence decreasing from 0.8% to 0.5%, and improved recording of foot ulceration at a national level. This national strategy has helped highlight the importance and difficulties facing diabetes foot care and should help to continue to improve the quality of care of people with diabetes who have foot-related problems.

  8. Vertical Stratification of Soil Phosphorus as a Concern for Dissolved Phosphorus Runoff in the Lake Erie Basin.

    PubMed

    Baker, David B; Johnson, Laura T; Confesor, Remegio B; Crumrine, John P

    2017-11-01

    During the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie, dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) loading and concentrations to the lake have nearly doubled, while particulate phosphorus (PP) has remained relatively constant. One potential cause of increased DRP concentrations is P stratification, or the buildup of soil-test P (STP) in the upper soil layer (<5 cm). Stratification often accompanies no-till and mulch-till practices that reduce erosion and PP loading, practices that have been widely implemented throughout the Lake Erie Basin. To evaluate the extent of P stratification in the Sandusky Watershed, certified crop advisors were enlisted to collect stratified soil samples (0-5 or 0-2.5 cm) alongside their normal agronomic samples (0-20 cm) ( = 1758 fields). The mean STP level in the upper 2.5 cm was 55% higher than the mean of agronomic samples used for fertilizer recommendations. The amounts of stratification were highly variable and did not correlate with agronomic STPs (Spearman's = 0.039, = 0.178). Agronomic STP in 70% of the fields was within the buildup or maintenance ranges for corn ( L.) and soybeans [ (L.) Merr.] (0-46 mg kg Mehlich-3 P). The cumulative risks for DRP runoff from the large number of fields in the buildup and maintenance ranges exceeded the risks from fields above those ranges. Reducing stratification by a one-time soil inversion has the potential for larger and quicker reductions in DRP runoff risk than practices related to drawing down agronomic STP levels. Periodic soil inversion and mixing, targeted by stratified STP data, should be considered a viable practice to reduce DRP loading to Lake Erie. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  9. Simulating 2,368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Read, Jordan S.; Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Van Den Hoek, Jamon; Hanson, Paul C.; Bruce, Louise C; Markfort, Corey D.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in water temperatures resulting from climate warming can alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Lake-specific physical characteristics may play a role in mediating individual lake responses to climate. Past mechanistic studies of lake-climate interactions have simulated generic lake classes at large spatial scales or performed detailed analyses of small numbers of real lakes. Understanding the diversity of lake responses to climate change across landscapes requires a hybrid approach that couples site-specific lake characteristics with broad-scale environmental drivers. This study provides a substantial advancement in lake ecosystem modeling by combining open-source tools with freely available continental-scale data to mechanistically model daily temperatures for 2,368 Wisconsin lakes over three decades (1979-2011). The model accurately predicted observed surface layer temperatures (RMSE: 1.74°C) and the presence/absence of stratification (81.1% agreement). Among-lake coherence was strong for surface temperatures and weak for the timing of stratification, suggesting individual lake characteristics mediate some - but not all - ecologically relevant lake responses to climate.

  10. Effect of sample stratification on dairy GWAS results

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Artificial insemination and genetic selection are major factors contributing to population stratification in dairy cattle. In this study, we analyzed the effect of sample stratification and the effect of stratification correction on results of a dairy genome-wide association study (GWAS). Three methods for stratification correction were used: the efficient mixed-model association expedited (EMMAX) method accounting for correlation among all individuals, a generalized least squares (GLS) method based on half-sib intraclass correlation, and a principal component analysis (PCA) approach. Results Historical pedigree data revealed that the 1,654 contemporary cows in the GWAS were all related when traced through approximately 10–15 generations of ancestors. Genome and phenotype stratifications had a striking overlap with the half-sib structure. A large elite half-sib family of cows contributed to the detection of favorable alleles that had low frequencies in the general population and high frequencies in the elite cows and contributed to the detection of X chromosome effects. All three methods for stratification correction reduced the number of significant effects. EMMAX method had the most severe reduction in the number of significant effects, and the PCA method using 20 principal components and GLS had similar significance levels. Removal of the elite cows from the analysis without using stratification correction removed many effects that were also removed by the three methods for stratification correction, indicating that stratification correction could have removed some true effects due to the elite cows. SNP effects with good consensus between different methods and effect size distributions from USDA’s Holstein genomic evaluation included the DGAT1-NIBP region of BTA14 for production traits, a SNP 45kb upstream from PIGY on BTA6 and two SNPs in NIBP on BTA14 for protein percentage. However, most of these consensus effects had similar frequencies in

  11. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    PubMed

    Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

    2015-09-01

    National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the 'high risk' patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2-3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4-5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the 'high-risk' patient.

  12. External Validation of a risk stratification model to assist shared decision making for patients starting renal replacement therapy.

    PubMed

    Peeters, Patrick; Van Biesen, Wim; Veys, Nic; Lemahieu, Wim; De Moor, Bart; De Meester, Johan

    2016-04-07

    Shared decision making is nowadays acknowledged as an essential step when deciding on starting renal replacement therapy. Valid risk stratification of prognosis is, besides discussing quality of life, crucial in this regard. We intended to validate a recently published risk stratification model in a large cohort of incident patients starting renal replacement therapy in Flanders. During 3 years (2001-2003), the data set collected for the Nederlandstalige Belgische Vereniging voor Nefrologie (NBVN) registry was expanded with parameters of comorbidity. For all incident patients, the abbreviated REIN score(aREIN), being the REIN score without the parameter "mobility", was calculated, and prognostication of mortality at 3, 6 and 12 month after start of renal replacement therapy (RRT) was evaluated. Three thousand four hundred seventy-two patients started RRT in Flanders during the observation period (mean age 67.6 ± 14.3, 56.7 % men, 33.6 % diabetes). The mean aREIN score was 4.1 ± 2.8, and 56.8, 23.1, 12.6 and 7.4 % of patients had a score of ≤4, 5-6, 7-8 or ≥9 respectively. Mortality at 3, 6 and 12 months was 8.6, 14.1 and 19.6 % in the overall and 13.2, 21.5 and 31.9 % in the group with age >75 respectively. In RoC analysis, the aREIN score had an AUC of 0.74 for prediction of survival at 3, 6 and 12 months. There was an incremental increase in mortality with the aREIN score from 5.6 to 45.8 % mortality at 6 months for those with a score ≤4 or ≥9 respectively. The aREIN score is a useful tool to predict short term prognosis of patients starting renal replacement therapy as based on comorbidity and age, and delivers meaningful discrimination between low and high risk populations. As such, it can be a useful instrument to be incorporated in shared decision making on whether or not start of dialysis is worthwhile.

  13. Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia: 2012 update on diagnosis, risk stratification, and management.

    PubMed

    Parikh, Sameer A; Tefferi, Ayalew

    2012-06-01

    Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is a clonal hematopoietic stem cell disorder that is classified as a myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasm by the 2008 World Health Organization classification of hematopoietic tumors. It is characterized by absolute monocytosis (>1 × 10(9) L(-1) ) in the peripheral blood that persists for at least 3 months. Patients may present with symptoms related to cytopenias and/or an underlying hypercatabolic state with drenching night sweats, splenomegaly, and weight loss. The diagnosis of CMML rests on a combination of morphologic, histopathologic, and chromosomal abnormalities in the bone marrow, after careful exclusion of other conditions (both malignant and nonmalignant) that can cause monocytosis. Numerous molecular abnormalities have been recently recognized in patients with CMML-unfortunately, no single pathognomonic finding specific to CMML has been identified thus far. The International Prognostic Scoring System for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) cannot be used to risk stratify patients with CMML because this model excluded patients with a leukocyte count >12 × 10(9) L(-1) . Other risk stratification models such as the MD Anderson prognostic score and Dusseldorf score have been published. In the only model that took karyotype into account, bone marrow blasts ≥ 10%, leukocyte count ≥ 13 × 10(9) L(-1) , hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, platelet count < 100 × 10(9) L(-1) , and presence of trisomy 8, abnormalities of chromosome 7, or complex karyotype were found to be independent predictors of adverse survival. The Food and Drug Administration has approved azacitidine and decitabine for the treatment of patients with CMML based on two pivotal trials in MDS. Novel classes of agents including immunomodulatory drugs, nucleoside analogs, and small-molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitors are being investigated in the treatment of CMML. With the advent of reduced intensity conditioning, an allogeneic stem cell transplant has also become

  14. Dynamo Tests for Stratification Below the Core-Mantle Boundary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olson, P.; Landeau, M.

    2017-12-01

    Evidence from seismology, mineral physics, and core dynamics points to a layer with an overall stable stratification in the Earth's outer core, possibly thermal in origin, extending below the core-mantle boundary (CMB) for several hundred kilometers. In contrast, energetic deep mantle convection with elevated heat flux implies locally unstable thermal stratification below the CMB in places, consistent with interpretations of non-dipole geomagnetic field behavior that favor upwelling flows below the CMB. Here, we model the structure of convection and magnetic fields in the core using numerical dynamos with laterally heterogeneous boundary heat flux in order to rationalize this conflicting evidence. Strongly heterogeneous boundary heat flux generates localized convection beneath the CMB that coexists with an overall stable stratification there. Partially stratified dynamos have distinctive time average magnetic field structures. Without stratification or with stratification confined to a thin layer, the octupole component is small and the CMB magnetic field structure includes polar intensity minima. With more extensive stratification, the octupole component is large and the magnetic field structure includes intense patches or high intensity lobes in the polar regions. Comparisons with the time-averaged geomagnetic field are generally favorable for partial stratification in a thin layer but unfavorable for stratification in a thick layer beneath the CMB.

  15. Validation of risk stratification schemes for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation: nationwide cohort study.

    PubMed

    Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Lip, Gregory Y H; Hansen, Morten Lock; Hansen, Peter Riis; Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Selmer, Christian; Ahlehoff, Ole; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2011-01-31

    To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS(2) (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc (CHA(2)DS(2)-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism. Registry based cohort study. Nationwide data on patients admitted to hospital with atrial fibrillation. Population All patients with atrial fibrillation not treated with vitamin K antagonists in Denmark in the period 1997-2006. Stroke and thromboembolism. Of 121,280 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, 73,538 (60.6%) fulfilled the study inclusion criteria. In patients at "low risk" (score = 0), the rate of thromboembolism per 100 person years was 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.89) with CHADS(2) and 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc at one year's follow-up. In patients at "intermediate risk" (score = 1), this rate was 4.75 (4.45 to 5.07) with CHADS(2) and 2.01 (1.70 to 2.36) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc. The rate of thromboembolism depended on the individual risk factors composing the scores, and both schemes underestimated the risk associated with previous thromboembolic events. When patients were categorised into low, intermediate, and high risk groups, C statistics at 10 years' follow-up were 0.812 (0.796 to 0.827) with CHADS(2) and 0.888 (0.875 to 0.900) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc. The risk associated with a specific risk stratification score depended on the risk factors composing the score. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc performed better than CHADS(2) in predicting patients at high risk, and those categorised as low risk by CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc were truly at low risk for thromboembolism.

  16. Principal Stratification — Uses and Limitations

    PubMed Central

    VanderWeele, Tyler J

    2011-01-01

    Pearl (2011) asked for the causal inference community to clarify the role of the principal stratification framework in the analysis of causal effects. Here, I argue that the notion of principal stratification has shed light on problems of non-compliance, censoring-by-death, and the analysis of post-infection outcomes; that it may be of use in considering problems of surrogacy but further development is needed; that it is of some use in assessing “direct effects”; but that it is not the appropriate tool for assessing “mediation.” There is nothing within the principal stratification framework that corresponds to a measure of an “indirect” or “mediated” effect. PMID:21841939

  17. Risk stratification of patients with diabetes and the role of sodium glucose co-transporter inhibitors 2 during Ramadan fasting.

    PubMed

    Adnan, Zaina

    2017-09-01

    The month of Ramadan represents a golden opportunity for better management of patients with diabetes not only during Ramadan month, but also through the entire year. Pre Ramadan period is crucial for evaluating and preparing patients with diabetes intending to Fast Ramadan. The risk stratification categories should take into consideration patients with diabetes having specific conditions such as nephrotic syndrome who are predisposed to thrombosis independent to their estimated glomerular filtration rate and glycated haemoglobin. Furthermore, population-specific conditions such as nomadic Bedouins living in remote areas should be considered as part of the very high risk category for fasting Ramadan. Published data regarding the use of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors during Ramadan is very limited. Dapagliflozin was the only agent studied during Ramadan. Therefore, it is suggested to categorize this group of agents differently from other agents such as metformin and incretin based therapy studied vastly during Ramadan. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Eigenmode resonance in a two-layer stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanda, Isao; Linden, P. F.

    2002-06-01

    In this paper, we study the velocity field at the density interface of a two-layer stratification system when the flow is forced at the mid-depth of the lower layer by the source sink forcing method. It is known that, in a sufficiently strong linear stratification, the source sink forcing in certain configurations produces a single-vortex pattern which corresponds to the lowest eigenmode of the Helmholtz equation (Kanda & Linden 2001). Two types of forcing configuration are used for the two-layer experiments: one that leads to a steady single-vortex pattern in a linear stratification, and one that results in an unsteady irregular state. Strong single-vortex patterns appear intermittently for the former configurations despite the absence of stratification at the forcing height. When the single-vortex pattern occurs at the density interface, a similar flow field extends down to the forcing height. The behaviour is explained as the coupling of the resonant eigenmode at the interface with the horizontal component of the forcing jets. The results show that stratification can organise a flow, even though it is forced by an apparently random three-dimensional forcing.

  19. External Validation of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) for Risk Prioritization in an Iranian Population

    PubMed Central

    Atashi, Alireza; Amini, Shahram; Tashnizi, Mohammad Abbasi; Moeinipour, Ali Asghar; Aazami, Mathias Hossain; Tohidnezhad, Fariba; Ghasemi, Erfan; Eslami, Saeid

    2018-01-01

    Introduction The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is a prediction model which maps 18 predictors to a 30-day post-operative risk of death concentrating on accurate stratification of candidate patients for cardiac surgery. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the performance of the EuroSCORE II risk-analysis predictions among patients who underwent heart surgeries in one area of Iran. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect the required variables for all consecutive patients who underwent heart surgeries at Emam Reza hospital, Northeast Iran between 2014 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify covariates which significantly contribute to higher EuroSCORE II in our population. External validation was performed by comparing the real and expected mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination assessment. Also, Brier Score and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to show the overall performance and calibration level, respectively. Results Two thousand five hundred eight one (59.6% males) were included. The observed mortality rate was 3.3%, but EuroSCORE II had a prediction of 4.7%. Although the overall performance was acceptable (Brier score=0.047), the model showed poor discriminatory power by AUC=0.667 (sensitivity=61.90, and specificity=66.24) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P<0.01). Conclusion Our study showed that the EuroSCORE II discrimination power is less than optimal for outcome prediction and less accurate for resource allocation programs. It highlights the need for recalibration of this risk stratification tool aiming to improve post cardiac surgery outcome predictions in Iran. PMID:29617500

  20. The role of copeptin as a diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for risk stratification in the emergency department

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis is activated in response to stress. One of the activated hypothalamic hormones is arginine vasopressin, a hormone involved in hemodynamics and osmoregulation. Copeptin, the C-terminal part of the arginine vasopressin precursor peptide, is a sensitive and stable surrogate marker for arginine vasopressin release. Measurement of copeptin levels has been shown to be useful in a variety of clinical scenarios, particularly as a prognostic marker in patients with acute diseases such as lower respiratory tract infection, heart disease and stroke. The measurement of copeptin levels may provide crucial information for risk stratification in a variety of clinical situations. As such, the emergency department appears to be the ideal setting for its potential use. This review summarizes the recent progress towards determining the prognostic and diagnostic value of copeptin in the emergency department. PMID:22264220

  1. Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

    PubMed

    Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

    2017-09-01

    The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

  2. Stratificational Grammar.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algeo, John

    1968-01-01

    According to the author, most grammarians have been writing stratificational grammars without knowing it because they have dealt with units that are related to one another, but not simply as a whole to its parts, or as a class to its members. The question, then, is not whether a grammar is stratified but whether it is explicitly stratified. This…

  3. High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin and the Risk Stratification of Patients With Renal Impairment Presenting With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Miller-Hodges, Eve; Anand, Atul; Shah, Anoop S.V.; Chapman, Andrew R.; Gallacher, Peter; Lee, Kuan Ken; Farrah, Tariq; Halbesma, Nynke; Blackmur, James P.; Newby, David E.; Mills, Nicholas L.

    2018-01-01

    Background: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing may improve the risk stratification and diagnosis of myocardial infarction, but concentrations can be challenging to interpret in patients with renal impairment, and the effectiveness of testing in this group is uncertain. Methods: In a prospective multicenter study of consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, we evaluated the performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I in those with and without renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60mL/min/1.73m2). The negative predictive value and sensitivity of troponin concentrations below the risk stratification threshold (5 ng/L) at presentation were reported for a primary outcome of index type 1 myocardial infarction, or type 1 myocardial infarction or cardiac death at 30 days. The positive predictive value and specificity at the 99th centile diagnostic threshold (16 ng/L in women, 34 ng/L in men) was determined for index type 1 myocardial infarction. Subsequent type 1 myocardial infarction and cardiac death were reported at 1 year. Results: Of 4726 patients identified, 904 (19%) had renal impairment. Troponin concentrations <5 ng/L at presentation identified 17% of patients with renal impairment as low risk for the primary outcome (negative predictive value, 98.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 96.0%–99.7%; sensitivity 98.9%; 95%CI, 97.5%–99.9%), in comparison with 56% without renal impairment (P<0.001) with similar performance (negative predictive value, 99.7%; 95% CI, 99.4%–99.9%; sensitivity 98.4%; 95% CI, 97.2%–99.4%). The positive predictive value and specificity at the 99th centile were lower in patients with renal impairment at 50.0% (95% CI, 45.2%–54.8%) and 70.9% (95% CI, 67.5%–74.2%), respectively, in comparison with 62.4% (95% CI, 58.8%–65.9%) and 92.1% (95% CI, 91.2%–93.0%) in those without. At 1 year, patients with troponin concentrations >99th centile and renal impairment were at greater risk of

  4. Lifetime risks for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: multivariable risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Vlak, Monique H M; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Greebe, Paut; Greving, Jacoba P; Algra, Ale

    2013-06-01

    The overall incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) in western populations is around 9 per 100 000 person-years, which confers to a lifetime risk of around half per cent. Risk factors for aSAH are usually expressed as relative risks and suggest that absolute risks vary considerably according to risk factor profiles, but such estimates are lacking. We aimed to estimate incidence and lifetime risks of aSAH according to risk factor profiles. We used data from 250 patients admitted with aSAH and 574 sex-matched and age-matched controls, who were randomly retrieved from general practitioners files. We determined independent prognostic factors with multivariable logistic regression analyses and assessed discriminatory performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Based on the prognostic model we predicted incidences and lifetime risks of aSAH for different risk factor profiles. The four strongest independent predictors for aSAH, namely current smoking (OR 6.0; 95% CI 4.1 to 8.6), a positive family history for aSAH (4.0; 95% CI 2.3 to 7.0), hypertension (2.4; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.8) and hypercholesterolaemia (0.2; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4), were used in the final prediction model. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76). Depending on sex, age and the four predictors, the incidence of aSAH ranged from 0.4/100 000 to 298/100 000 person-years and lifetime risk between 0.02% and 7.2%. The incidence and lifetime risk of aSAH in the general population varies widely according to risk factor profiles. Whether persons with high risks benefit from screening should be assessed in cost-effectiveness studies.

  5. Genotype-Specific Minimal Residual Disease Interpretation Improves Stratification in Pediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

    PubMed Central

    O’Connor, David; Enshaei, Amir; Bartram, Jack; Hancock, Jeremy; Harrison, Christine J.; Hough, Rachael; Samarasinghe, Sujith; Schwab, Claire; Vora, Ajay; Wade, Rachel; Moppett, John; Moorman, Anthony V.; Goulden, Nick

    2018-01-01

    Purpose Minimal residual disease (MRD) and genetic abnormalities are important risk factors for outcome in acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Current risk algorithms dichotomize MRD data and do not assimilate genetics when assigning MRD risk, which reduces predictive accuracy. The aim of our study was to exploit the full power of MRD by examining it as a continuous variable and to integrate it with genetics. Patients and Methods We used a population-based cohort of 3,113 patients who were treated in UKALL2003, with a median follow-up of 7 years. MRD was evaluated by polymerase chain reaction analysis of Ig/TCR gene rearrangements, and patients were assigned to a genetic subtype on the basis of immunophenotype, cytogenetics, and fluorescence in situ hybridization. To examine response kinetics at the end of induction, we log-transformed the absolute MRD value and examined its distribution across subgroups. Results MRD was log normally distributed at the end of induction. MRD distributions of patients with distinct genetic subtypes were different (P < .001). Patients with good-risk cytogenetics demonstrated the fastest disease clearance, whereas patients with high-risk genetics and T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia responded more slowly. The risk of relapse was correlated with MRD kinetics, and each log reduction in disease level reduced the risk by 20% (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.83; P < .001). Although the risk of relapse was directly proportional to the MRD level within each genetic risk group, absolute relapse rate that was associated with a specific MRD value or category varied significantly by genetic subtype. Integration of genetic subtype–specific MRD values allowed more refined risk group stratification. Conclusion A single threshold for assigning patients to an MRD risk group does not reflect the response kinetics of the different genetic subtypes. Future risk algorithms should integrate genetics with MRD to accurately identify patients with the

  6. A reconceptualization of age stratification in China.

    PubMed

    Yin, P; Lai, K H

    1983-09-01

    Using the concepts of age stratification theory--age effect, cohort effect, and subcohort differences--this paper provides a new perspective on age stratification in China. Currently, the literature suggests that the status of elderly people declined after the Communist Revolution and will further decline with modernization. We discuss the problems with this perspective and argue, instead, that the status of elderly adults did not decline for the majority of the aged during the Maoist years. Rather, the most important change in the age stratification system during the Maoist years was the change in the criterion of age stratification--from age differences to cohort and subcohort differences. Furthermore, the subcohort of elderly adults who suffered the most status decline during the Maoist years--the bourgeoisie--may actually enjoy an increase in status with the recent modernization impetus. Research suggestions from this new perspective are discussed.

  7. Effects of viscosity and conductivity stratification on the linear stability and transient growth within compressible Couette flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikia, Bijaylakshmi; Ramachandran, Ashwin; Sinha, Krishnendu; Govindarajan, Rama

    2017-02-01

    Accurate prediction of laminar to turbulent transition in compressible flows is a challenging task, as it can be affected by a combination of factors. Compressibility causes large variations in thermodynamic as well as transport properties of a gas, which in turn are known to affect flow stability. We study the stratification of individual transport properties and their combined behavior. We also examine the effect of a change in the magnitude of viscosity and conductivity on flow stability. The Couette flow of a perfect gas is our model problem and both modal and non-modal analyses are carried out. We notice a large destabilizing role of the increase in the conductivity value and a dramatic stabilizing effect of mean viscosity stratification, over a range of free-stream Mach number, Reynolds number, Prandtl number, and disturbance wavenumber. In the combined case, viscosity stratification plays a dominant role. We find this to be the case for finite-time transient growth in the parameter regime below linear instability as well as asymptotically at large time. A budget of the transient growth energy amplification is also shown to identify the effects of transport properties on the constituents of perturbation energy. The extensive results presented in this paper, we believe should motivate those studying more realistic flows to examine how these contrasting effects of stratification come together.

  8. Risk Stratification by Self-Measured Home Blood Pressure across Categories of Conventional Blood Pressure: A Participant-Level Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Asayama, Kei; Thijs, Lutgarde; Brguljan-Hitij, Jana; Niiranen, Teemu J.; Hozawa, Atsushi; Boggia, José; Aparicio, Lucas S.; Hara, Azusa; Johansson, Jouni K.; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Tzourio, Christophe; Stergiou, George S.; Sandoya, Edgardo; Tsuji, Ichiro; Jula, Antti M.; Imai, Yutaka; Staessen, Jan A.

    2014-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases Study 2010 reported that hypertension is worldwide the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease, causing 9.4 million deaths annually. We examined to what extent self-measurement of home blood pressure (HBP) refines risk stratification across increasing categories of conventional blood pressure (CBP). Methods and Findings This meta-analysis included 5,008 individuals randomly recruited from five populations (56.6% women; mean age, 57.1 y). All were not treated with antihypertensive drugs. In multivariable analyses, hazard ratios (HRs) associated with 10-mm Hg increases in systolic HBP were computed across CBP categories, using the following systolic/diastolic CBP thresholds (in mm Hg): optimal, <120/<80; normal, 120–129/80–84; high-normal, 130–139/85–89; mild hypertension, 140–159/90–99; and severe hypertension, ≥160/≥100. Over 8.3 y, 522 participants died, and 414, 225, and 194 had cardiovascular, cardiac, and cerebrovascular events, respectively. In participants with optimal or normal CBP, HRs for a composite cardiovascular end point associated with a 10-mm Hg higher systolic HBP were 1.28 (1.01–1.62) and 1.22 (1.00–1.49), respectively. At high-normal CBP and in mild hypertension, the HRs were 1.24 (1.03–1.49) and 1.20 (1.06–1.37), respectively, for all cardiovascular events and 1.33 (1.07–1.65) and 1.30 (1.09–1.56), respectively, for stroke. In severe hypertension, the HRs were not significant (p≥0.20). Among people with optimal, normal, and high-normal CBP, 67 (5.0%), 187 (18.4%), and 315 (30.3%), respectively, had masked hypertension (HBP≥130 mm Hg systolic or ≥85 mm Hg diastolic). Compared to true optimal CBP, masked hypertension was associated with a 2.3-fold (1.5–3.5) higher cardiovascular risk. A limitation was few data from low- and middle-income countries. Conclusions HBP substantially refines risk stratification at CBP levels assumed to carry no or only mildly increased

  9. Risk stratification of patients with severe heart failure awaiting heart transplantation-prospective national registry POLKARD HF.

    PubMed

    Zieliński, T; Browarek, A; Zembala, M; Sadowski, J; Zakliczyński, M; Przybylowski, P; Roguski, K; Kosakowska, A B; Korewicki, J

    2009-10-01

    Most methods used in the risk assessment of heart transplant candidates do not include new biomarkers. The aim of the study was to examine the value of NTproBNP and hsCRP and their combined use together with HFSS score in the risk assessment of patients with heart failure enlisted for heart transplantation. Data of 658 patients enlisted for heart transplantation in all active transplantation centers were stored in a prospective registry. The composite end point-death or urgent transplantation was recorded during the follow-up. Death or urgent transplantation was recorded in 161 (24%) of pts. 102 (15%) patients died and 59 (9%) were transplanted urgently. Kaplan-Meier curves for risk of death or urgent transplantation where highly significant when pts were stratified by the quartiles of NT proBNP (P < .000001) or quartiles according to the hsCRP level on admission (P < .002). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, the significance was observed for NTproBNP (P < .01) and HFSS (P < .02), and borderline significance for hsCRP (P = .057). When ROC analyses of the area under the curve (AUC) values were considered, AUC area was for HFSS - 0.645, for NTproBNP - 0.653 and for hsCRP - 0.566. When all those variables were included together in the model, the AUC value rose to 0.6943. Based on those results a weighted risk model with all three parameters was proposed. HFSS, NTproBNP and hsCRP levels are independent stratification variables of survival or need for urgent heart transplantation. Their predictive value is moderately increased when they are analyzed together.

  10. Novel biparametric MRI and targeted biopsy improves risk stratification in men with a clinical suspicion of prostate cancer (IMPROD Trial).

    PubMed

    Jambor, Ivan; Boström, Peter J; Taimen, Pekka; Syvänen, Kari; Kähkönen, Esa; Kallajoki, Markku; Perez, Ileana Montoya; Kauko, Tommi; Matomäki, Jaakko; Ettala, Otto; Merisaari, Harri; Kiviniemi, Aida; Dean, Peter B; Aronen, Hannu J

    2017-10-01

    To evaluate the role of a 3T biparametric magnetic resonance imaging (bpMRI), T 2 -weighted imaging, and three separate diffusion-weighted imaging acquisitions combined with targeted biopsy (TB) for improving risk stratification of men with elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Between March 2013 and February 2015, 175 men with a clinical suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa) were offered bpMRI (NCT01864135) based on a suspicion of PCa (two repeated PSA measurements in the range 2.5-20.0 ng/ml and/or abnormal digital rectal examination). Men with an equivocal to high suspicion of PCa had two TBs of the dominant lesion using cognitive ultrasound guidance, followed by systematic biopsy (SB). Men with a low to very low suspicion had only SB. In total, 161 (161/175, 92%) prospectively enrolled men completed the trial and were included in the final analyses. The primary endpoint of the trial was the cancer detection rate (CDR) of TB and SB. Clinically significant cancer (SPCa) was defined as Gleason score ≥3 + 4. TB compared with SB had higher CDR for SPCa (45%, 72/161 vs. 39%, 63/161, respectively; P > 0.05) and a lower CDR for Gleason score 3 + 3 (8%, 15/161 vs. 16%, 30/161; P < 0.05). Restricting biopsy to men with equivocal to highly suspicious bpMRI findings would have resulted in a 24% (38/161) reduction in the number of men undergoing biopsy, while missing 4 (2%) with SPCa. All anonymized datasets, including bpMRI reports and follow up information, are freely available on the trial server. Prebiopsy bpMRI and TB in men with a clinical suspicion of PCa improved risk stratification. 1 Technical Efficacy: Stage 5 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2017;46:1089-1095. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  11. [Assessment of Heavy/ Light Chain Pairs of Immunoglobulin (Hevylite assay) -  Benefit for Stratification of Multiple Myeloma?].

    PubMed

    Ščudla, V; Lochaman, P; Pika, T; Zapletalová, J; Minařík, J; Bačovský, J

    2015-01-01

    according to ISS and to stage 1-3 according to A L and L model was in IgG vs IgA isotype significantly different (p < 0.0001- 0.030). Staging system according to ISS had proportional distribution of stages 1- 3, whereas in the A L model prevailed in IgA and IgG isotype risk category 2, ie. intermediate-risk (47.3 and 44.7%) and in the L model prevailed risk category 3, ie. high-risk (41.5 and 52.6%) with low count of category 1, ie. low- risk category (23.4 and 10.5%). McNemar- Bowker test of symmetry showed in both types of MM the highest concordance between the stratification according to D S and L in category 3, ie. high-risk (31.9 vs. 28.9%) with overall accord only in 53.2 and 42.1% and with significant shift in the case of IgG isotype only (p = 0.036). In IgG and IgA isotype there was an overall concordance in the distribution of categories 1- 3 according to ISS vs. A L (62.4 and 63.2%) but with significant shift of the stratification (p = 0.002 and 0.028). In the case of IgG and IgA isotype there was a close relationship between the models A L and L (64.5 and 81.6%) with significant stratification shift (p < 0.0001 and 0.030). The new stratification models for MM according to A L and L are easily practically applicable, with close relationship to principal PF but they need separate assessment of IgG and IgA isotypes of MM. The choice of optimal model for routine practice needs a validation study aimed at progression free survival and overall survival.

  12. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    PubMed Central

    Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

    2015-01-01

    Introduction National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the ‘high risk’ patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Methods Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien–Dindo classification. Results The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien–Dindo grade 2–3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4–5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Discussion Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. Conclusions In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the ‘high-risk’ patient. PMID:26468369

  13. Development of an Echocardiographic Risk-Stratification Index to Predict Heart Failure in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, Steven M.; Farzaneh-Far, Ramin; Na, Beeya; Whooley, Mary A.; Schiller, Nelson B.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES We sought to determine which transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) measurements most strongly predict heart failure (HF) and to develop an index for risk stratification in outpatients with coronary artery disease (CAD). BACKGROUND Many TTE measurements have been shown to be predictive of HF, and they might be useful if aggregated into a risk-prediction index. METHODS We performed TTE in 1,024 outpatients with stable CAD enrolled in the Heart and Soul study and followed them for 4.4 years. With Cox proportional hazard models, we evaluated the association of 15 TTE measurements with subsequent HF hospital stay. Those measurements that independently predicted HF were combined into an index. Variables were defined as normal or abnormal on the basis of dichotomous cutoffs determined from the American Society of Echocardiography. Abnormal variables in each measurement were assigned points on the basis of strength of association with HF. RESULTS Of the 15 variables, 5 measurements were independent predictors of HF: left ventricular mass index (LVMI), left atrial volume index (LAVI), mitral regurgitation (MR), left ventricular outflow tract velocity-time integral (VTILVOT), and diastolic dysfunction (DD). In multivariate analysis, each of the 5 measurements independently predicted HF: LVMI >90 g/m2 (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3 to 7.2, p < 0.0001); pseudo-normal or restrictive DD (HR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.8 to 4.5, p < 0.0001); VTILVOT <22 mm (HR: 2.2; 95% CI: 1.4 to 3.5, p = 0.0004); mild, moderate, or severe MR (HR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.2 to 2.8, p = 0.009); and LAVI >29 ml/m2 (HR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0 to 2.5, p = 0.06). Combining these measurements, the Heart Failure Index ranged from 0 to 8, representing risk as follows: 3 points for LVMI, 2 points for DD, and 1 point for VTILVOT, MR, and LAVI. Among participants with 0 to 2 points: 4% had HF hospital stays (reference); 3 to 4 points: 10% (HR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.3 to 4.4, p = 0.003); 5 to 6 points

  14. Stratification and mobility in contemporary Egypt.

    PubMed

    Nagi, Saad Z; Nagi, Omar

    2011-01-01

    The objectives in this statement are to characterize and explain the patterns of change in stratification and mobility in Egypt, over the last half century, by placing them within conceptual, explanatory, and historical contexts. First, literature relevant to the primary concepts of "class" and "status", is reviewed. Second, four institutions whose influence is fundamental in shaping these patterns are identified to form an explanatory context: family, polity, economy, and education. And third, an historical account is presented to demonstrate the interplay of these institutions and their consequences for stratification and mobility. For this, four periods are identified that are marked by change in the dominance of institutions and their corresponding influence on stratification and mobility. In addition to data available in relevant literature, this analysis utilizes primary data generated through a national probability household survey.

  15. An ischemia-guided approach for risk stratification in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

    PubMed

    Pepine, C J

    2000-12-28

    attention to early risk stratification is essential in the ischemia-guided approach. The Braunwald classification for unstable angina helps identify independent clinical predictors of a poor outcome; high risk is clearly associated with Braunwald class III and type C. Electrocardiographic and biochemical markers for myocardial necrosis (cardiac troponin T or I) are important tools for assessing the presence and degree of ischemia and associated risk for adverse outcome. Noninvasive evaluation of left ventricular ejection fraction is essential for identifying those at high risk due to impaired contractile function. When these conventional markers do not provide conclusive information, noninvasive stress testing is most helpful to further identify those at highest risk for revascularization.

  16. Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately?

    PubMed

    Hey, Spencer Phillips; Kimmelman, Jonathan

    2016-10-01

    Accurate estimation of risk and benefit is integral to good clinical research planning, ethical review, and study implementation. Some commentators have argued that various actors in clinical research systems are prone to biased or arbitrary risk/benefit estimation. In this commentary, we suggest the evidence supporting such claims is very limited. Most prior work has imputed risk/benefit beliefs based on past behavior or goals, rather than directly measuring them. We describe an approach - forecast analysis - that would enable direct and effective measure of the quality of risk/benefit estimation. We then consider some objections and limitations to the forecasting approach. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

    PubMed

    Wennmann, Markus; Kintzelé, Laurent; Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

    2018-05-18

    The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm 3 /month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

  18. The influence of atmospheric stratification on scatterometer data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Louis, Jean-Francois; Hoffman, Ross N.

    1989-01-01

    The effects of atmospheric stratification and the stability of the atmospheric stratification on the scatterometer data measuring surface winds over the ocean were investigated using the boundary layer model developed by Louis (1979). A variational analysis method is proposed, which allows direct assimilation of scatterometer data. It is shown that the effect of the stability of atmospheric stratification on the wind increment is relatively small. However, it is a systematic effect, and neglecting it would consistently underestimate the winds in stable regions.

  19. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease heterogeneity: challenges for health risk assessment, stratification and management.

    PubMed

    Roca, Josep; Vargas, Claudia; Cano, Isaac; Selivanov, Vitaly; Barreiro, Esther; Maier, Dieter; Falciani, Francesco; Wagner, Peter; Cascante, Marta; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Kalko, Susana; De Mas, Igor; Tegnér, Jesper; Escarrabill, Joan; Agustí, Alvar; Gomez-Cabrero, David

    2014-11-28

    Heterogeneity in clinical manifestations and disease progression in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) lead to consequences for patient health risk assessment, stratification and management. Implicit with the classical "spill over" hypothesis is that COPD heterogeneity is driven by the pulmonary events of the disease. Alternatively, we hypothesized that COPD heterogeneities result from the interplay of mechanisms governing three conceptually different phenomena: 1) pulmonary disease, 2) systemic effects of COPD and 3) co-morbidity clustering, each of them with their own dynamics. To explore the potential of a systems analysis of COPD heterogeneity focused on skeletal muscle dysfunction and on co-morbidity clustering aiming at generating predictive modeling with impact on patient management. To this end, strategies combining deterministic modeling and network medicine analyses of the Biobridge dataset were used to investigate the mechanisms of skeletal muscle dysfunction. An independent data driven analysis of co-morbidity clustering examining associated genes and pathways was performed using a large dataset (ICD9-CM data from Medicare, 13 million people). Finally, a targeted network analysis using the outcomes of the two approaches (skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering) explored shared pathways between these phenomena. (1) Evidence of abnormal regulation of skeletal muscle bioenergetics and skeletal muscle remodeling showing a significant association with nitroso-redox disequilibrium was observed in COPD; (2) COPD patients presented higher risk for co-morbidity clustering than non-COPD patients increasing with ageing; and, (3) the on-going targeted network analyses suggests shared pathways between skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering. The results indicate the high potential of a systems approach to address COPD heterogeneity. Significant knowledge gaps were identified that are relevant to shape strategies aiming at

  20. Multislice computed tomography coronary angiography for risk stratification in patients with an intermediate pretest likelihood.

    PubMed

    van Werkhoven, J M; Gaemperli, O; Schuijf, J D; Jukema, J W; Kroft, L J; Leschka, S; Alkadhi, H; Valenta, I; Pundziute, G; de Roos, A; van der Wall, E E; Kaufmann, P A; Bax, J J

    2009-10-01

    To assess whether multislice computed tomography coronary angiography (MSCTA) may be useful for risk stratification of patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) at intermediate pretest likelihood according to Diamond and Forrester. MSCTA images were evaluated for the presence of significant CAD in 316 patients with suspected CAD (60% male, average (SD) age 57 (11) years) and an intermediate pretest likelihood according to Diamond and Forrester. Patients were followed up to determine the occurrence of an event. A combined end point of all-cause mortality, non-fatal infarction and unstable angina requiring revascularisation. Significant CAD was seen in 89 patients (28%), whereas normal MSCTA or non-significant CAD was seen in the remaining 227 (72%) patients. During follow-up (median 621 days (25-75th centile 408-835) an event occurred in 13 patients (4.8%). The annualised event rate was 0.8% in patients with normal MSCT, 2.2% in patients with non-significant CAD and 6.5% in patients with significant CAD. Moreover, MSCTA remained a significant predictor (p<0.05) of events after multivariate correction (hazard ratio = 3.460 (95% CI 1.142 to 10.480). The results suggest that in patients with an intermediate pretest likelihood, MSCTA is highly effective in re-stratifying patients into either a low or high post-test risk group. These results further emphasise the usefulness of non-invasive imaging with MSCTA in this patient population.

  1. Molecular markers of carcinogenesis for risk stratification of individuals with colorectal polyps: a case-control study.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Samir; Sun, Han; Yi, Sang; Storm, Joy; Xiao, Guanghua; Balasubramanian, Bijal A; Zhang, Song; Ashfaq, Raheela; Rockey, Don C

    2014-10-01

    Risk stratification using number, size, and histology of colorectal adenomas is currently suboptimal for identifying patients at increased risk for future colorectal cancer. We hypothesized that molecular markers of carcinogenesis in adenomas, measured via immunohistochemistry, may help identify high-risk patients. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a retrospective, 1:1 matched case-control study (n = 216; 46% female) in which cases were patients with colorectal cancer and synchronous adenoma and controls were patients with adenoma but no colorectal cancer at baseline or within 5 years of follow-up. In phase I of analyses, we compared expression of molecular markers of carcinogenesis in case and control adenomas, blind to case status. In phase II of analyses, patients were randomly divided into independent training and validation groups to develop a model for predicting case status. We found that seven markers [p53, p21, Cox-2, β-catenin (BCAT), DNA-dependent protein kinase (DNApkcs), survivin, and O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT)] were significantly associated with case status on unadjusted analyses, as well as analyses adjusted for age and advanced adenoma status (P < 0.01 for at least one marker component). When applied to the validation set, a predictive model using these seven markers showed substantial accuracy for identifying cases [area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (AUC), 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74-0.92]. A parsimonious model using three markers performed similarly to the seven-marker model (AUC, 0.84). In summary, we found that molecular markers of carcinogenesis distinguished adenomas from patients with and without colorectal cancer. Furthermore, we speculate that prospective studies using molecular markers to identify individuals with polyps at risk for future neoplasia are warranted. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

  2. Role of diastolic function indices in the risk stratification of patients with mixed aortic valve disease.

    PubMed

    Egbe, Alexander C; Khan, Arooj R; Boler, Amber; Said, Sameh M; Geske, Jeffrey B; Miranda, William R; Akintoye, Emmanuel; Connolly, Heidi M; Warnes, Carole A; Oh, Jae K

    2018-06-01

    Determine the role of diastolic function indices in pre-operative and post-operative risk stratification in patients with moderate mixed aortic valve disease (MAVD). A retrospective study was conducted of asymptomatic patients with moderate MAVD (a combination of moderate aortic stenosis and moderate aortic regurgitation) and an ejection fraction of 50% or more who were followed up at Mayo Clinic from 1 January 2004, to 31 December 2013. A pre-requisite for inclusion in the study was assessment of diastolic function involving at least three of the following indices: tissue Doppler early diastolic velocity (e'), mitral inflow early velocity (E), tricuspid regurgitation velocity, and left atrial volume index. Primary endpoints were aortic valve replacement (AVR) or cardiac death while secondary endpoints were cardiovascular adverse events (CAEs) after AVR. We defined CAEs as stroke, heart failure hospitalization, severe left ventricular dysfunction, and cardiac death. There were 214 patients (age 61 ± 8 years, men 146 [68%]) followed for 6.1 ± 2.3 years during which 162 (76%) AVRs and 11 (5%) cardiac deaths occurred. The multivariable risk factors for cardiac death or AVR were relative wall thickness (RWT) > 0.42 [hazard ratio (HR), 1.88 [95% CI, 1.28-2.59]; P = 0.001] and average E/e' >14 (HR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.29-3.01]; P = 0.02). Freedom from CAE after AVR was significantly lower in the patients with baseline RWT >0.42 or mean E/e' >14 than the other patients: 79% (95% CI 74-83%) vs. 94% (95% CI 89-98%) at 3 years (P = 0.03). The presence of RWT >0.42 or E/e' >14 identifies a high-risk patient subset whose risk for cardiovascular morbidities persists even after AVR.

  3. Optimized endogenous post-stratification in forest inventories

    Treesearch

    Paul L. Patterson

    2012-01-01

    An example of endogenous post-stratification is the use of remote sensing data with a sample of ground data to build a logistic regression model to predict the probability that a plot is forested and using the predicted probabilities to form categories for post-stratification. An optimized endogenous post-stratified estimator of the proportion of forest has been...

  4. Revealing the timing of ocean stratification using remotely sensed ocean fronts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Peter I.; Loveday, Benjamin R.

    2017-10-01

    Stratification is of critical importance to the circulation, mixing and productivity of the ocean, and is expected to be modified by climate change. Stratification is also understood to affect the surface aggregation of pelagic fish and hence the foraging behaviour and distribution of their predators such as seabirds and cetaceans. Hence it would be prudent to monitor the stratification of the global ocean, though this is currently only possible using in situ sampling, profiling buoys or underwater autonomous vehicles. Earth observation (EO) sensors cannot directly detect stratification, but can observe surface features related to the presence of stratification, for example shelf-sea fronts that separate tidally-mixed water from seasonally stratified water. This paper describes a novel algorithm that accumulates evidence for stratification from a sequence of oceanic front maps, and discusses preliminary results in comparison with in situ data and simulations from 3D hydrodynamic models. In certain regions, this method can reveal the timing of the seasonal onset and breakdown of stratification.

  5. Role of late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance in the risk stratification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Ismail, Tevfik F; Jabbour, Andrew; Gulati, Ankur; Mallorie, Amy; Raza, Sadaf; Cowling, Thomas E; Das, Bibek; Khwaja, Jahanzaib; Alpendurada, Francisco D; Wage, Ricardo; Roughton, Michael; McKenna, William J; Moon, James C; Varnava, Amanda; Shakespeare, Carl; Cowie, Martin R; Cook, Stuart A; Elliott, Perry; O'Hanlon, Rory; Pennell, Dudley J; Prasad, Sanjay K

    2014-12-01

    Myocardial fibrosis identified by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is associated with adverse cardiovascular events, but its value as an independent risk factor for sudden cardiac death (SCD) is unknown. We investigated the role of LGE-CMR in the risk stratification of HCM. We conducted a prospective cohort study in a tertiary referral centre. Consecutive patients with HCM (n=711, median age 56.3 years, IQR 46.7-66.6; 70.0% male) underwent LGE-CMR and were followed for a median 3.5 years. The primary end point was SCD or aborted SCD. Overall, 471 patients (66.2%) had myocardial fibrosis (median 5.9% of left ventricular mass, IQR: 2.2-13.3). Twenty-two (3.1%) reached the primary end point. The extent but not the presence of fibrosis was a significant univariable predictor of the primary end point (HR per 5% LGE: 1.24, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.45; p=0.007 and HR for LGE: 2.69, 95% CI 0.91 to 7.97; p=0.073, respectively). However, on multivariable analysis, only LV-EF remained statistically significant (HR: 0.92, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.95; p<0.001). For the secondary outcome of cardiovascular mortality/aborted SCD, the presence and the amount of fibrosis were significant predictors on univariable but not multivariable analysis after adjusting for LV-EF and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. The amount of myocardial fibrosis was a strong univariable predictor of SCD risk. However, this effect was not maintained after adjusting for LV-EF. Further work is required to elucidate the interrelationship between fibrosis and traditional predictors of outcome in HCM. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  6. Validation of risk stratification schemes for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation: nationwide cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Lip, Gregory Y H; Hansen, Morten Lock; Hansen, Peter Riis; Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Selmer, Christian; Ahlehoff, Ole; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2011-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS2 (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age≥75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA2DS2-VASc (CHA2DS2-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism. Design Registry based cohort study. Setting Nationwide data on patients admitted to hospital with atrial fibrillation. Population All patients with atrial fibrillation not treated with vitamin K antagonists in Denmark in the period 1997-2006. Main outcome measures Stroke and thromboembolism. Results Of 121 280 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, 73 538 (60.6%) fulfilled the study inclusion criteria. In patients at “low risk” (score=0), the rate of thromboembolism per 100 person years was 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.89) with CHADS2 and 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) with CHA2DS2-VASc at one year’s follow-up. In patients at “intermediate risk” (score=1), this rate was 4.75 (4.45 to 5.07) with CHADS2 and 2.01 (1.70 to 2.36) with CHA2DS2-VASc. The rate of thromboembolism depended on the individual risk factors composing the scores, and both schemes underestimated the risk associated with previous thromboembolic events. When patients were categorised into low, intermediate, and high risk groups, C statistics at 10 years’ follow-up were 0.812 (0.796 to 0.827) with CHADS2 and 0.888 (0.875 to 0.900) with CHA2DS2-VASc. Conclusions The risk associated with a specific risk stratification score depended on the risk factors composing the score. CHA2DS2-VASc performed better than CHADS2 in predicting patients at high risk, and those categorised as low risk by CHA2DS2-VASc were truly at low risk for thromboembolism. PMID:21282258

  7. Thermal Stratification Analysis for Sodium Fast Reactors

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Schneider, James; Anderson, Mark; Baglietto, Emilio

    The sodium fast reactor (SFR) is the most mature reactor concept of all the generation-IV nuclear systems and is a promising reactor design that is currently under development by several organizations. The majority of sodium fast reactor designs utilize a pool type arrangement which incorporates the primary coolant pumps and intermediate heat exchangers within the sodium pool. These components typically protrude into the pool thus reducing the risk and severity of a loss of coolant accidents. To further ensure safe operation under even the most severe transients a more comprehensive understanding of key thermal hydraulic phenomena in this pool ismore » desired. One of the key technology gaps identified for SFR safety is determining the extent and the effects of thermal stratification developing in the pool during postulated accident scenarios such as a protected or unprotected loss of flow incident. In an effort to address these issues, detailed flow models of transient stratification in the pool during an accident can be developed. However, to develop the calculation models, and ensure they can reproduce the underlying physics, highly spatially resolved data is needed. This data can be used in conjunction with advanced computational fluid dynamic calculations to aid in the development of simple reduced dimensional models for systems codes such as SAM and SAS4A/SASSYS-1.« less

  8. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator Does Not Accurately Predict Risk of 30-Day Complications Among Patients Undergoing Microvascular Head and Neck Reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Arce, Kevin; Moore, Eric J; Lohse, Christine M; Reiland, Matthew D; Yetzer, Jacob G; Ettinger, Kyle S

    2016-09-01

    The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC) is a novel universal risk calculator designed to aid in risk stratification of patients undergoing various types of major surgery. The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of the ACS NSQIP SRC in predicting postoperative complications in patients undergoing microvascular head and neck reconstruction. A retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing head and neck microvascular reconstruction with fibular free flaps at a single institution was completed. The NSQIP SRC was used to compute complication risk estimates and length of stay (LOS) estimates for all patients under study. Associations between complication risk estimates generated by the SRC and actual rates of observed complications were evaluated using logistic regression models. Logistic regression models also were used to evaluate the SRC estimates for LOS duration compared with the actual observed LOS after surgery. Of 153 patients under study, 46 (30%) developed a postoperative complication corresponding to those defined by NSQIP SRC. Thirty-eight patients (25%) developed a postoperative complication categorized as severe in the parameters of the NSQIP SRC. None of the SRC complication estimates showed a statistically relevant association with the corresponding observed rates of complications. The mean LOS predicted by the SRC was 8.0 days (median, 7.5 days; interquartile range [IQR], 6.5 to 9; range, 5.0 to 18.5 days). The mean observed LOS for the study group was 9.6 days (median, 7.0 days; IQR, 6 to 9; range, 5 to 67 days). Lin's (Biometrics 45:255, 1989) concordance correlation coefficient to measure agreement between observed and predicted LOS was 0.10, indicating only slight agreement between the 2 values. The ACS NSQIP SRC is not a useful risk-stratifying metric for patients undergoing major head and neck reconstruction with microvascular fibular free

  9. Prehypertension: risk stratification and management considerations.

    PubMed

    Egan, Brent M; Julius, Stevo

    2008-10-01

    Approximately 37% of US adults are prehypertensive; about 31 million have blood pressures in the range of 130-139/85-89 mm Hg. These stage 2 prehypertensives have threefold greater risk for developing hypertension and twofold higher risk for cardiovascular events than normotensives. Lifestyle changes only are recommended for most prehypertensives, but evidence for community-wide effectiveness is limited. Projected numbers needed to treat to prevent a cardiovascular event are similar for stage 2 prehypertension and stage 1 hypertension when both groups are matched for concomitant risk factors. However, no clinical trials document that pharmacotherapy reduces cardiovascular events in stage 2 prehypertension. The Trial of Preventing Hypertension demonstrated that angiotensin receptor blockade safely lowers blood pressure and prevents or delays progression to hypertension in stage 2 prehypertensives. We believe it is reasonable for clinicians to identify stage 2 prehypertensives at high absolute risk for progression to hypertension and cardiovascular events, and to treat them with a renin-angiotensin system blocker when lifestyle changes alone are ineffective.

  10. Density stratification effects in sand-bed rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wright, S.; Parker, G.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper the effects of density stratification in sand-bed rivers are studied by the application of a model of vertical velocity and concentration profiles, coupled through the use of a turbulence closure that retains the buoyancy terms. By making the governing equations dimensionless, it is revealed that the slope is the additional dimensionless parameter introduced by inclusion of the buoyancy terms. The primary new finding is that in general density stratification effects tend to be greater in large, low-slope rivers than in their smaller, steeper brethren. Under high flow conditions the total suspended load and size distribution of suspended sediment can be significantly affected by density stratification, and should be accounted for in any general theory of suspended transport. ?? ASCE.

  11. Does quantifying epicardial and intrathoracic fat with noncontrast computed tomography improve risk stratification beyond calcium scoring alone?

    PubMed

    Forouzandeh, Farshad; Chang, Su Min; Muhyieddeen, Kamil; Zaid, Rashid R; Trevino, Alejandro R; Xu, Jiaqiong; Nabi, Faisal; Mahmarian, John J

    2013-01-01

    Noncontrast cardiac computed tomography allows calculation of coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and measurement of epicardial adipose tissue (EATv) and intrathoracic fat (ITFv) volumes. It is unclear whether fat volume information contributes to risk stratification. Cardiac computed tomography was performed in 760 consecutive patients with acute chest pain admitted thorough the emergency department. None had prior coronary artery disease. CACS was calculated using the Agatston method. EATv and ITFv were semiautomatically calculated. Median patient follow-up was 3.3 years. Mean patient age was 54.4±13.7 years and Framingham risk score 8.2±8.2. The 45 patients (5.9%) with major acute cardiac events (MACE) were older (64.8±13.9 versus 53.7±13.4 years), more frequently male (60% versus 40%), and had a higher median Framingham risk score (16 versus 4) and CACS (268 versus 0) versus those without events (all P<0.01). The MACE group had a higher median of EATv (154 versus 116 mL) and ITFv (330 versus 223 mL), and a higher prevalence of EATv >125 mL (67% versus 44%) and ITFv >250 mL (64% versus 42%) (all P<0.01). CACS, EATv, and ITFv were all independently associated with MACE. CACS was associated with MACE after adjustment for fat volumes (P<0.0001), whereas EATv and ITFv improved the risk model only in patients with CACS >400. CACS and fat volumes are independently associated with MACE in acute chest pain patients and beyond that provided by clinical information alone. Although fat volumes may add prognostic value in patients with CACS >400, CACS is most strongly correlated with outcome.

  12. Albumin-Bilirubin and Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin Grades Accurately Predict Overall Survival in High-Risk Patients Undergoing Conventional Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Hansmann, Jan; Evers, Maximilian J; Bui, James T; Lokken, R Peter; Lipnik, Andrew J; Gaba, Ron C; Ray, Charles E

    2017-09-01

    To evaluate albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) grades in predicting overall survival in high-risk patients undergoing conventional transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This single-center retrospective study included 180 high-risk patients (142 men, 59 y ± 9) between April 2007 and January 2015. Patients were considered high-risk based on laboratory abnormalities before the procedure (bilirubin > 2.0 mg/dL, albumin < 3.5 mg/dL, platelet count < 60,000/mL, creatinine > 1.2 mg/dL); presence of ascites, encephalopathy, portal vein thrombus, or transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt; or Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score > 15. Serum albumin, bilirubin, and platelet values were used to determine ALBI and PALBI grades. Overall survival was stratified by ALBI and PALBI grades with substratification by Child-Pugh class (CPC) and Barcelona Liver Clinic Cancer (BCLC) stage using Kaplan-Meier analysis. C-index was used to determine discriminatory ability and survival prediction accuracy. Median survival for 79 ALBI grade 2 patients and 101 ALBI grade 3 patients was 20.3 and 10.7 months, respectively (P < .0001). Median survival for 30 PALBI grade 2 and 144 PALBI grade 3 patients was 20.3 and 12.9 months, respectively (P = .0667). Substratification yielded distinct ALBI grade survival curves for CPC B (P = .0022, C-index 0.892), BCLC A (P = .0308, C-index 0.887), and BCLC C (P = .0287, C-index 0.839). PALBI grade demonstrated distinct survival curves for BCLC A (P = 0.0229, C-index 0.869). CPC yielded distinct survival curves for the entire cohort (P = .0019) but not when substratified by BCLC stage (all P > .05). ALBI and PALBI grades are accurate survival metrics in high-risk patients undergoing conventional transarterial chemoembolization for HCC. Use of these scores allows for more refined survival stratification within CPC and BCLC stage. Copyright © 2017 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All

  13. Turbulent Control Of The Ocean Surface Boundary Layer During The Onset Of Seasonal Stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palmer, M.; Hopkins, J.; Wihsgott, J. U.

    2016-02-01

    To provide accurate predictions of global carbon cycles we must first understand the mechanistic control of ocean surface boundary layer (OSBL) temperature and the timing and depth of ocean thermal stratification, which are critical controls on oceanic carbon sequestration via the solubility and biological pumps. Here we present an exciting new series of measurements of the fine-scale physical structure and dynamics of the OSBL that provide fresh insight into the turbulent control of upper ocean structure. This study was made in the centre of the Celtic Sea, a broad section of the NW European continental shelf, and represents one of only a handful of measurements of near-surface turbulence in our shelf seas. Data are provided by an ocean microstructure glider (OMG) that delivers estimates of turbulent dissipation rates and mixing from 100m depth to within 2-3m of the sea surface, approximately every 10 minutes and continually for 21 days during April 2015. The OMG successfully captures the onset of spring stratification as solar radiation finally overcomes the destabilising effects of turbulent surface processes. Using coincident meteorological and wave observations from a nearby mooring, and full water column current velocity data we are able to close the near surface energy budget and provide a valuable test for proposed parameterisations of OSBL turbulence based on wind, wave and buoyancy inputs. We verify recent hypotheses that even very subtle thermal stratification, below often assumed limits of 0.1°C, are sufficient to establish sustained stratification even during active surface forcing. We also find that while buoyant production (convection) is not an efficient mechanism for mixing beyond the base of the mixed layer it does play an important role in modification of surface structure, acting to precondition the OSBL for enhanced (deeper) impacts from wind and wave driven turbulence.

  14. Educational Stratification in Russia during the Soviet Period.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gerber, Theodore P.; Hout, Michael

    1995-01-01

    Maintains that, in spite of state efforts to reduce educational inequities, stratification actually increased during the Soviet period. Removing gender preferences for men corrected some inequity. However, parents' education, occupation, and geographical origin contributed to the stratification. Contains a concise history of Soviet educational…

  15. Risk stratification in acute pulmonary embolism with heart-type fatty acid-binding protein: A meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Bajaj, Anurag; Rathor, Parul; Sehgal, Vishal; Shetty, Ajay; Kabak, Besher; Hosur, Srikanth

    2015-10-01

    Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) has emerged as a new biomarker in risk stratification of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We performed a meta-analysis of studies in patients with acute PE to assess the prognostic value of elevated H-FABP for short-term adverse outcomes. Two independent reviewers systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Database until June 2014. Studies were searched using MeSH word "fatty acid-binding protein" and "pulmonary embolism." Prospective studies were included if those were done on patients with acute PE and if serum H-FABP assay was done. Relevant data on study design, year of publication, patient population, inclusion criteria, exclusion criteria, mean age, sex, type of H-FABP assay, cutoff of H-FABP used, and outcomes were extracted. The primary end point was 30-day complicated clinical course and PE-related mortality. The secondary end point was right ventricular dysfunction (RVD). A random-effects model was used to pool study results. Nine studies, including 1680 patients, reported data on the 30-day complicated clinical course. Elevated H-FABP was significantly associated with the increased risk of 30-day complicated clinical course (odds ratio [OR], 17.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.02-51.89; I(2) = 80%). Similarly, 6 studies, including 676 patients, reported 30-day mortality data. Elevated H-FABP was associated with increased risk of 30-day PE-related mortality (OR, 32.94; 95% CI, 8.80-123.21, I(2) = 53%). The risk of RVD was significantly higher in patients with elevated H-FABP as compared with patients with normal H-FABP (OR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.05-6.33, I(2) = 57%). The prognostic sensitivity and specificity of H-FABP were 71% and 74% in predicting 30-day complicated clinical course and were 90% and 70% in predicting 30-day mortality. This meta-analysis indicates that elevated H-FABP levels are associated with increased risk of 30-day complicated clinical course, mortality, and RVD

  16. A new stratification of mourning dove call-count routes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Blankenship, L.H.; Humphrey, A.B.; MacDonald, D.

    1971-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaidura macroura) call-count survey is a nationwide audio-census of breeding mourning doves. Recent analyses of the call-count routes have utilized a stratification based upon physiographic regions of the United States. An analysis of 5 years of call-count data, based upon stratification using potential natural vegetation, has demonstrated that this uew stratification results in strata with greater homogeneity than the physiographic strata, provides lower error variance, and hence generates greatet precision in the analysis without an increase in call-count routes. Error variance was reduced approximately 30 percent for the contiguous United States. This indicates that future analysis based upon the new stratification will result in an increased ability to detect significant year-to-year changes.

  17. Validation of a risk stratification tool for fall-related injury in a state-wide cohort.

    PubMed

    McCoy, Thomas H; Castro, Victor M; Cagan, Andrew; Roberson, Ashlee M; Perlis, Roy H

    2017-02-06

    A major preventable contributor to healthcare costs among older individuals is fall-related injury. We sought to validate a tool to stratify such risk based on readily available clinical data, including projected medication adverse effects, using state-wide medical claims data. Sociodemographic and clinical features were drawn from health claims paid in the state of Massachusetts for individuals aged 35-65 with a hospital admission for a period spanning January-December 2012. Previously developed logistic regression models of hospital readmission for fall-related injury were refit in a testing set including a randomly selected 70% of individuals, and examined in a training set comprised of the remaining 30%. Medications at admission were summarised based on reported adverse effect frequencies in published medication labelling. The Massachusetts health system. A total of 68 764 hospitalised individuals aged 35-65 years. Hospital readmission for fall-related injury defined by claims code. A total of 2052 individuals (3.0%) were hospitalised for fall-related injury within 90 days of discharge, and 3391 (4.9%) within 180 days. After recalibrating the model in a training data set comprised of 48 136 individuals (70%), model discrimination in the remaining 30% test set yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.74 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.76). AUCs were similar across age decades (0.71 to 0.78) and sex (0.72 male, 0.76 female), and across most common diagnostic categories other than psychiatry. For individuals in the highest risk quartile, 11.4% experienced fall within 180 days versus 1.2% in the lowest risk quartile; 57.6% of falls occurred in the highest risk quartile. This analysis of state-wide claims data demonstrates the feasibility of predicting fall-related injury requiring hospitalisation using readily available sociodemographic and clinical details. This translatable approach to stratification allows for identification of

  18. Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients

    PubMed Central

    Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H.; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker ‘>1 focal lesion’ of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm3/month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker ‘>1 focal lesion’ of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients. PMID:29861868

  19. Education and Social Stratification Processes in Comparative Perspective.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kerckhoff, Alan C.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses three characteristics of educational systems that have been used to explain social stratification processes: stratification, standardization, and vocational specificity. Describes how these characteristics affect the movement of students through school and into the labor force in France, Germany, Great Britain, and the United States.…

  20. Comparison of different risk stratification systems in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients.

    PubMed

    Safari, Saeed; Baratloo, Alireza; Hashemi, Behrooz; Rahmati, Farhad; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Motamedi, Maryam; Mirmohseni, Ladan

    2016-01-01

    Determining etiologic causes and prognosis can significantly improve management of syncope patients. The present study aimed to compare the values of San Francisco, Osservatorio Epidemiologico sulla Sincope nel Lazio (OESIL), Boston, and Risk Stratification of Syncope in the Emergency Department (ROSE) score clinical decision rules in predicting the short-term serious outcome of syncope patients. The present diagnostic accuracy study with 1-week follow-up was designed to evaluate the predictive values of the four mentioned clinical decision rules. Screening performance characteristics of each model in predicting mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) were calculated and compared. To evaluate the value of each aforementioned model in predicting the outcome, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were calculated and receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was done. A total of 187 patients (mean age: 64.2 ± 17.2 years) were enrolled in the study. Mortality, MI, and CVA were seen in 19 (10.2%), 12 (6.4%), and 36 (19.2%) patients, respectively. Area under the ROC curve for OESIL, San Francisco, Boston, and ROSE models in prediction the risk of 1-week mortality, MI, and CVA was in the 30-70% range, with no significant difference among models ( P > 0.05). The pooled model did not show higher accuracy in prediction of mortality, MI, and CVA compared to others ( P > 0.05). This study revealed the weakness of all four evaluated models in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients referred to the emergency department without any significant advantage for one among others.

  1. Anomalous Coronary Arteries and Myocardial Bridges: Risk Stratification in Children Using Novel Cardiac Catheterization Techniques.

    PubMed

    Agrawal, Hitesh; Molossi, Silvana; Alam, Mahboob; Sexson-Tejtel, S Kristen; Mery, Carlos M; McKenzie, E Dean; Fraser, Charles D; Qureshi, Athar M

    2017-03-01

    The evaluation of the vast majority of children with anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery (AAOCA) and/or myocardial bridges is performed with non-invasive testing. However, a subset of these patients may benefit from invasive testing for risk stratification. All patients included in the Coronary Anomalies Program (CAP) at Texas Children's Hospital who underwent cardiac catheterization were included. Techniques included selective coronary angiograms (SCA), intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), and fractional flow reserve (FFR) measurements with provocative testing using adenosine and/or dobutamine infusions. Out of the 131 patients followed by the CAP between 12/12-4/16, 8 (6%) patients underwent 9 cath investigations at median age 13.1 (2.6-18.7) years and median weight 49.5 (11.4-142.7) kg. Six patients presented with cardiac signs/symptoms. Four patients had myocardial bridges of the left anterior descending (LAD) coronary artery, 2 patients had isolated AAOCA, and 2 patients had an anomalous left coronary artery (LCA) with an intramyocardial course of the LAD. SCA was performed in all patients. FFR was positive in 4/6 patients: IVUS showed >70% intraluminal narrowing in 3/5 patients. One patient had hemodynamic instability that reversed with catheter removal from the coronary ostium. Based on the catheterization data obtained, findings were reassuring in three patients, surgery was performed in three patients, and two patients are being medically managed/restricted from competitive sports. In our small cohort of patients, we demonstrated that IVUS and FFR can safely be performed in children and may help to risk stratify some patients with AAOCA and myocardial bridges.

  2. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    PubMed

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  3. The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

  4. "I know what you told me, but this is what I think:" perceived risk of Alzheimer disease among individuals who accurately recall their genetics-based risk estimate.

    PubMed

    Linnenbringer, Erin; Roberts, J Scott; Hiraki, Susan; Cupples, L Adrienne; Green, Robert C

    2010-04-01

    This study evaluates the Alzheimer disease risk perceptions of individuals who accurately recall their genetics-based Alzheimer disease risk assessment. Two hundred forty-six unaffected first-degree relatives of patients with Alzheimer disease were enrolled in a multisite randomized controlled trial examining the effects of communicating APOE genotype and lifetime Alzheimer disease risk information. Among the 158 participants who accurately recalled their Alzheimer disease risk assessment 6 weeks after risk disclosure, 75 (47.5%) believed their Alzheimer disease risk was more than 5% points different from the Alzheimer disease risk estimate they were given. Within this subgroup, 69.3% believed that their Alzheimer disease risk was higher than what they were told (discordant high), whereas 30.7% believed that their Alzheimer disease risk was lower (discordant low). Participants with a higher baseline risk perception were more likely to have a discordant-high risk perception (P < 0.05). Participants in the discordant-low group were more likely to be APOE epsilon4 positive (P < 0.05) and to score higher on an Alzheimer disease controllability scale (P < 0.05). Our results indicate that even among individuals who accurately recall their Alzheimer disease risk assessment, many people do not take communicated risk estimates at face value. Further exploration of this clinically relevant response to risk information is warranted.

  5. Patient characteristics and stratification in medical treatment studies for metastatic colorectal cancer: a proposal for standardization of patient characteristic reporting and stratification.

    PubMed

    Sorbye, H; Köhne, C-H; Sargent, D J; Glimelius, B

    2007-10-01

    Prognostic factors have the potential to determine the survival of patients to a greater extent than current antineoplastic agents. Despite this knowledge, there is no consensus on, first, what patient characteristics to report and, second, what stratification factors to use in metastatic colorectal cancer trials. Seven leading oncology and medical journals were reviewed for phase II and III publications reporting on medical treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer patients during 2001-2005. One hundred and forty-three studies with 21 214 patients were identified. The reporting of patient characteristics and use of stratification was noted. Age, gender, performance status, metastases location, sites and adjuvant chemotherapy were often reported (99-63%). Laboratory values as alkaline phosphatase, lactate dehydrogenase and white blood cell count, repeatedly found to be of prognostic relevance, were rarely reported (5-9%). Stratification was used in all phase III trials; however, only study centre was used with any consistency. There is considerable inconsistency in the reporting of patient characteristics and use of stratification factors in metastatic colorectal cancer trials. We propose a standardization of patient characteristics reporting and stratification factors. A common set of characteristics and strata will aid in trial reporting, interpretation and future meta-analyses.

  6. Using pharmacists to improve risk stratification and management of stage 3A chronic kidney disease: a feasibility study.

    PubMed

    Chang, Alex R; Evans, Michael; Yule, Christina; Bohn, Larissa; Young, Amanda; Lewis, Meredith; Graboski, Elisabeth; Gerdy, Bethany; Ehmann, William; Brady, Jonathan; Lawrence, Leah; Antunes, Natacha; Green, Jamie; Snyder, Susan; Kirchner, H Lester; Grams, Morgan; Perkins, Robert

    2016-11-08

    Measurement of albuminuria to stratify risk in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is not done universally in the primary care setting despite recommendation in KDIGO (Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes) guidelines. Pharmacist medication therapy management (MTM) may be helpful in improving CKD risk stratification and management. We conducted a pragmatic, cluster-randomized trial using seven primary care clinic sites in the Geisinger Health System to evaluate the feasibility of pharmacist MTM in patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 45-59 ml/min/1.73 m 2 and uncontrolled blood pressure (≥150/85 mmHg). In the three pharmacist MTM sites, pharmacists were instructed to follow a protocol aimed to improve adherence to KDIGO guidelines on testing for proteinuria and lipids, and statin and blood pressure medical therapy. In the four control clinics, patients received usual care. The primary outcome was proteinuria screening over a follow-up of 1 year. A telephone survey was administered to physicians, pharmacists, and patients in the pharmacist MTM arm at the end of the trial. Baseline characteristics were similar between pharmacist MTM (n = 24) and control (n = 23) patients, although pharmacist MTM patients tended to be younger (64 vs. 71 y; p = 0.06) and less likely to have diabetes (17 % vs. 35 %; p = 0.2) or baseline proteinuria screening (41.7 % vs. 60.9 %, p = 0.2). Mean eGFR was 54 ml/min/1.73 m 2 in both groups. The pharmacist MTM intervention did not significantly improve total proteinuria screening at the population level (OR 2.6, 95 % CI: 0.5-14.0; p = 0.3). However, it tended to increase screening of previously unscreened patients (78.6 % in the pharmacist MTM group compared to 33.3 % in the control group; OR 7.3, 95 % CI: 0.96-56.3; p = 0.05). In general, the intervention was well-received by patients, pharmacists, and providers, who agreed that pharmacists could play an important role in CKD

  7. Effects of Density Stratification in Compressible Polytropic Convection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manduca, Cathryn M.; Anders, Evan H.; Bordwell, Baylee; Brown, Benjamin P.; Burns, Keaton J.; Lecoanet, Daniel; Oishi, Jeffrey S.; Vasil, Geoffrey M.

    2017-11-01

    We study compressible convection in polytropically-stratified atmospheres, exploring the effect of varying the total density stratification. Using the Dedalus pseudospectral framework, we perform 2D and 3D simulations. In these experiments we vary the number of density scale heights, studying atmospheres with little stratification (1 density scale height) and significant stratification (5 density scale heights). We vary the level of convective driving (quantified by the Rayleigh number), and study flows at similar Mach numbers by fixing the initial superadiabaticity. We explore the differences between 2D and 3D simulations, and in particular study the equilibration between different reservoirs of energy (kinetic, potential and internal) in the evolved states.

  8. Principal Stratification — a Goal or a Tool?

    PubMed Central

    Pearl, Judea

    2011-01-01

    Principal stratification has recently become a popular tool to address certain causal inference questions, particularly in dealing with post-randomization factors in randomized trials. Here, we analyze the conceptual basis for this framework and invite response to clarify the value of principal stratification in estimating causal effects of interest. PMID:21556288

  9. Initial clinical validation of Health Heritage, a patient-facing tool for personal and family history collection and cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Baumgart, Leigh A; Postula, Kristen J Vogel; Knaus, William A

    2016-04-01

    Personal and family health histories remain important independent risk factors for cancer; however they are currently not being well collected or used effectively. Health Heritage was designed to address this need. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of Health Heritage to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to accurately stratify cancer risk. A retrospective chart review was conducted on 100 random patients seen at an adult genetics clinic presenting with concern for an inherited predisposition to cancer. Relevant personal and family history obtained from the patients' medical records was entered into Health Heritage. Recommendations by Health Heritage were compared to national guidelines of eligibility for genetic evaluation. Agreement between Health Heritage referral for genetic evaluation and guideline eligibility for genetic evaluation was 97% (sensitivity 98% and specificity 88%). Risk stratification for cancer was also compared between Health Heritage and those documented by a geneticist. For patients at increased risk for breast, ovarian, or colorectal cancer as determined by the geneticist, risk stratification by Health Heritage agreed 90, 93, and 75%, respectively. Discordances in risk stratification were attributed to both complex situations better handled by the geneticist and Health Heritage's adherence to incorporating all information into its algorithms. Health Heritage is a clinically valid tool to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to encourage them to confirm the assessment and management recommendations with cancer genetic experts. Health Heritage also provides an estimate of cancer risk that is complementary to a genetics team.

  10. Cancer Stratification by Molecular Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Weber, Justus; Haberkorn, Uwe; Mier, Walter

    2015-01-01

    The lack of specificity of traditional cytotoxic drugs has triggered the development of anticancer agents that selectively address specific molecular targets. An intrinsic property of these specialized drugs is their limited applicability for specific patient subgroups. Consequently, the generation of information about tumor characteristics is the key to exploit the potential of these drugs. Currently, cancer stratification relies on three approaches: Gene expression analysis and cancer proteomics, immunohistochemistry and molecular imaging. In order to enable the precise localization of functionally expressed targets, molecular imaging combines highly selective biomarkers and intense signal sources. Thus, cancer stratification and localization are performed simultaneously. Many cancer types are characterized by altered receptor expression, such as somatostatin receptors, folate receptors or Her2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2). Similar correlations are also known for a multitude of transporters, such as glucose transporters, amino acid transporters or hNIS (human sodium iodide symporter), as well as cell specific proteins, such as the prostate specific membrane antigen, integrins, and CD20. This review provides a comprehensive description of the methods, targets and agents used in molecular imaging, to outline their application for cancer stratification. Emphasis is placed on radiotracers which are used to identify altered expression patterns of cancer associated markers. PMID:25749472

  11. Sudden Cardiac Risk Stratification with Electrocardiographic Indices - A Review on Computational Processing, Technology Transfer, and Scientific Evidence

    PubMed Central

    Gimeno-Blanes, Francisco J.; Blanco-Velasco, Manuel; Barquero-Pérez, Óscar; García-Alberola, Arcadi; Rojo-Álvarez, José L.

    2016-01-01

    Great effort has been devoted in recent years to the development of sudden cardiac risk predictors as a function of electric cardiac signals, mainly obtained from the electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis. But these prediction techniques are still seldom used in clinical practice, partly due to its limited diagnostic accuracy and to the lack of consensus about the appropriate computational signal processing implementation. This paper addresses a three-fold approach, based on ECG indices, to structure this review on sudden cardiac risk stratification. First, throughout the computational techniques that had been widely proposed for obtaining these indices in technical literature. Second, over the scientific evidence, that although is supported by observational clinical studies, they are not always representative enough. And third, via the limited technology transfer of academy-accepted algorithms, requiring further meditation for future systems. We focus on three families of ECG derived indices which are tackled from the aforementioned viewpoints, namely, heart rate turbulence (HRT), heart rate variability (HRV), and T-wave alternans. In terms of computational algorithms, we still need clearer scientific evidence, standardizing, and benchmarking, siting on advanced algorithms applied over large and representative datasets. New scenarios like electronic health recordings, big data, long-term monitoring, and cloud databases, will eventually open new frameworks to foresee suitable new paradigms in the near future. PMID:27014083

  12. Systemic mastocytosis in adults: 2017 update on diagnosis, risk stratification and management.

    PubMed

    Pardanani, Animesh

    2016-11-01

    Disease overview:Systemic mastocytosis (SM) results from a clonal proliferation of abnormal mast cells (MC) in one or more extra-cutaneous organs. The major criterion is presence of multifocal clusters of morphologically abnormal MC in the bone marrow. Minor diagnostic criteria include elevated serum tryptase level, abnormal MC expression of CD25 and/or CD2, and presence of KITD816V. Risk stratification: The 2008 World Health Organization (WHO) classification of SM has been shown to be prognostically relevant. Classification of SM patients into indolent (SM), aggressive SM (ASM), SM associated with a clonal non-MC lineage disease (SM-AHNMD) and mast cell leukemia (MCL) subgroups is a useful first step in establishing prognosis. SM treatment is generally palliative. ISM patients have a normal life expectancy and receive symptom-directed therapy; infrequently, cytoreductive therapy may be indicated for refractory symptoms. ASM patients have disease-related organ dysfunction; interferon-α (±corticosteroids) can control dermatological, hematological, gastrointestinal, skeletal and mediator-release symptoms, but is hampered by poor tolerability. Similarly, cladribine has broad therapeutic activity, with particular utility when rapid MC debulking is indicated; the main toxicity is myelosuppression. Imatinib has a therapeutic role in the presence of an imatinib-sensitive KIT mutation or in KITD816-unmutated patients. Treatment of SM-AHNMD is governed primarily by the non-MC neoplasm; hydroxyurea has modest utility in this setting; there is a role for allogeneic stem cell transplantation in select cases. Investigational drugs: Recent data confirms midostaurin's significant anti-MC activity in patients with advanced SM. Am. J. Hematol. 91:1147-1159, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Developing a risk stratification tool for audit of outcome after surgery for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Tighe, David F; Thomas, Alan J; Sassoon, Isabel; Kinsman, Robin; McGurk, Mark

    2017-07-01

    Patients treated surgically for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) represent a heterogeneous group. Adjusting for patient case mix and complexity of surgery is essential if reporting outcomes represent surgical performance and quality of care. A case note audit totaling 1075 patients receiving 1218 operations done for HNSCC in 4 cancer networks was completed. Logistic regression, decision tree analysis, an artificial neural network, and Naïve Bayes Classifier were used to adjust for patient case-mix using pertinent preoperative variables. Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34%-51%; P < .015) between units. The predictive models allowed risk stratification. The artificial neural network demonstrated the best predictive performance (area under the curve [AUC] 0.85). Early postoperative complications are a measurable outcome that can be used to benchmark surgical performance and quality of care. Surgical outcome reporting in national clinical audits should be taking account of the patient case mix. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Assessment of PaO₂/FiO₂ for stratification of patients with moderate and severe acute respiratory distress syndrome.

    PubMed

    Villar, Jesús; Blanco, Jesús; del Campo, Rafael; Andaluz-Ojeda, David; Díaz-Domínguez, Francisco J; Muriel, Arturo; Córcoles, Virgilio; Suárez-Sipmann, Fernando; Tarancón, Concepción; González-Higueras, Elena; López, Julia; Blanch, Lluis; Pérez-Méndez, Lina; Fernández, Rosa Lidia; Kacmarek, Robert M

    2015-03-27

    A recent update of the definition of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) proposed an empirical classification based on ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO₂/FiO₂) at ARDS onset. Since the proposal did not mandate PaO₂/FiO₂ calculation under standardised ventilator settings (SVS), we hypothesised that a stratification based on baseline PaO₂/FiOv would not provide accurate assessment of lung injury severity. A prospective, multicentre, observational study. A network of teaching hospitals. 478 patients with eligible criteria for moderate (100300). Group severity and hospital mortality. At ARDS onset, 173 patients had a PaO₂/FiO₂≤100 but only 38.7% met criteria for severe ARDS at 24 h under SVS. When assessed under SVS, 61.3% of patients with severe ARDS were reclassified as moderate, mild and non-ARDS, while lung severity and hospital mortality changed markedly with every PaO₂/FiO₂ category (p<0.000001). Our model of risk stratification outperformed the stratification using baseline PaO₂/FiO₂ and non-standardised PaO₂/FiO₂ at 24 h, when analysed by the predictive receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve: area under the ROC curve for stratification at baseline was 0.583 (95% CI 0.525 to 0.636), 0.605 (95% CI 0.552 to 0.658) at 24 h without SVS and 0.693 (95% CI 0.645 to 0.742) at 24 h under SVS (p<0.000001). Our findings support the need for patient assessment under SVS at 24 h after ARDS onset to assess disease severity, and have implications for the diagnosis and management of ARDS patients. NCT00435110 and NCT

  15. Health care professionals' attitudes towards population-based genetic testing and risk-stratification for ovarian cancer: a cross-sectional survey.

    PubMed

    Hann, Katie E J; Fraser, Lindsay; Side, Lucy; Gessler, Sue; Waller, Jo; Sanderson, Saskia C; Freeman, Madeleine; Jacobs, Ian; Lanceley, Anne

    2017-12-16

    Ovarian cancer is usually diagnosed at a late stage when outcomes are poor. Personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction, based on genetic and epidemiological information and risk stratified management in adult women could improve outcomes. Examining health care professionals' (HCP) attitudes to ovarian cancer risk stratified management, willingness to support women, self-efficacy (belief in one's own ability to successfully complete a task), and knowledge about ovarian cancer will help identify training needs in anticipation of personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction being introduced. An anonymous survey was distributed online to HCPs via relevant professional organisations in the UK. Kruskal-Wallis tests and pairwise comparisons were used to compare knowledge and self-efficacy scores between different types of HCPs, and attitudes toward population-based genetic testing and risk stratified management were described. Content analysis was undertaken of free text responses concerning HCPs willingness to discuss risk management options with women. One hundred forty-six eligible HCPs completed the survey: oncologists (31%); genetics clinicians (30%); general practitioners (22%); gynaecologists (10%); nurses (4%); and 'others'. Scores for knowledge of ovarian cancer and genetics, and self-efficacy in conducting a cancer risk consultation were generally high but significantly lower for general practitioners compared to genetics clinicians, oncologists, and gynaecologists. Support for population-based genetic testing was not high (<50%). Attitudes towards ovarian cancer risk stratification were mixed, although the majority of participants indicated a willingness to discuss management options with patients. Larger samples are required to investigate attitudes to population-based genetic testing for ovarian cancer risk and to establish why some HCPs are hesitant to offer testing to all adult female patients. If ovarian cancer risk assessment using genetic testing and non

  16. Efficacy of risk stratification in tailoring immunosuppression regimens in kidney transplant patients at the national kidney and transplant institute.

    PubMed

    Ledesma-Gumba, M A; Danguilan, R A; Casasola, C C; Ona, E T

    2008-09-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of tailored immunosuppressive regimens prescribed according to a risk stratification scoring system based on the number of HLA mismatches, donor source, panel-reactive antibodies (PRA), and repeat transplant. Patients in a retrospective cohort of 329 kidney transplantations performed from October 2004 to December 2005 were assigned scores of 0, 2, 4, or 6 with higher scores for > or =1 HLA mismatches, PRA > 10%, repeat transplant, and unrelated or deceased donor. Added scores of < or =4 comprised the low-risk group who received a Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI)-based regimen without induction, whereas a score > or = 6 denoted high risk including a CNI-based regimen with an interleukin-2 receptor antibody. The efficacy analysis compared the incidences of biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes (BPAR) at 1 year. Only 227 (69%) of 329 patients had a complete data set and 84 were excluded because they did not follow the prescribed protocol, yielding 113 low- and 30 high-risk patients in the final population. Low-risk patients had a mean PRA of 5.4%, living related donors in 68%, and primary transplants. High-risk patients had a mean PRA of 18.8% (range = 10%-97%), living nonrelated donors in 84%, four deceased donors, and four repeat transplants. The overall 1-year incidence of BPAR was 5.7%. No significant difference (P = .081) was observed in 1-year BPAR between the low- (4.5%) and high-risk (9.8%) groups. Likewise, no significant difference in the 1-year mean serum creatinine was observed according to the CNI. The mean creatinine was 1.12 for cyclosporine and 1.38 for tacrolimus treatment (P = .06) in the low-risk group and 1.08 for cyclosporine and 1.2 for tacrolimus (P = .61) in the high-risk cohort. There was no significant difference in acute rejection rates between the immunologically low- or high-risk patients using tailored immunosuppression, which was effective to minimize its occurrence with good renal function at 1 year.

  17. Numerical investigation of potential stratification caused by a cryogenic helium spill inside a tunnel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinclair, Cameron; Malecha, Ziemowit; Jedrusyna, Artur

    2018-04-01

    The sudden release of cryogenic fluid into an accelerator tunnel can pose a significant health and safety risk. For this reason, it is important to evaluate the consequences of such a spill. Previous publications concentrated on either Oxygen Deficiency Hazard or the evaluation of mathematical models using experimental data. No studies to date have focussed on the influence of cryogen inlet conditions on flow development. In this paper, the stratification behaviour of low-temperature helium released into an air-filled accelerator tunnel is investigated for varying helium inlet diameters. A numerical model was constructed using the OpenFOAM Toolbox of a generalised 3D geometry, with similar hydraulic characteristics to the CERN and SLAC tunnels. This model has been validated against published experimental and numerical data. A dimensionless parameter, based on Bakke number, was then determined for the onset of stratification, taking into account the helium inlet diameter; a dimensionless parameter for the degree of stratification was also employed. The simulated flow behaviour is described in terms of these dimensionless parameters, as well as the temperature and oxygen concentration at various heights throughout the tunnel.

  18. Near-Surface Effects of Free Atmosphere Stratification in Free Convection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mellado, Juan Pedro; van Heerwaarden, Chiel C.; Garcia, Jade Rachele

    2016-04-01

    The effect of a linear stratification in the free atmosphere on near-surface properties in a free convective boundary layer (CBL) is investigated by means of direct numerical simulation. We consider two regimes: a neutral stratification regime, which represents a CBL that grows into a residual layer, and a strong stratification regime, which represents the equilibrium (quasi-steady) entrainment regime. We find that the mean buoyancy varies as z^{-1/3}, in agreement with classical similarity theory. However, the root-mean-square (r.m.s.) of the buoyancy fluctuation and the r.m.s. of the vertical velocity vary as z^{-0.45} and ln z, respectively, both in disagreement with theory. These scaling laws are independent of the stratification regime, but the depth over which they are valid depends on the stratification. In the strong stratification regime, this depth is about 20 to 25 % of the CBL depth instead of the commonly used 10 %, which we only observe under neutral conditions. In both regimes, the near-surface flow structure can be interpreted as a hierarchy of circulations attached to the surface. Based on this structure, we define a new near-surface layer in free convection, the plume-merging layer, that is conceptually different from the constant-flux layer. The varying depth of the plume-merging layer depending on the stratification accounts for the varying depth of validity of the scaling laws. These findings imply that the buoyancy transfer law needed in mixed-layer and single-column models is well described by the classical similarity theory, independent of the stratification in the free atmosphere, even though other near-surface properties, such as the r.m.s. of the buoyancy fluctuation and the r.m.s. of the vertical velocity, are inconsistent with that theory.

  19. The effect of cost construction based on either DRG or ICD-9 codes or risk group stratification on the resulting cost-effectiveness ratios.

    PubMed

    Chumney, Elinor C G; Biddle, Andrea K; Simpson, Kit N; Weinberger, Morris; Magruder, Kathryn M; Zelman, William N

    2004-01-01

    As cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are increasingly used to inform policy decisions, there is a need for more information on how different cost determination methods affect cost estimates and the degree to which the resulting cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) may be affected. The lack of specificity of diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) could mean that they are ill-suited for costing applications in CEAs. Yet, the implications of using International Classification of Diseases-9th edition (ICD-9) codes or a form of disease-specific risk group stratification instead of DRGs has yet to be clearly documented. To demonstrate the implications of different disease coding mechanisms on costs and the magnitude of error that could be introduced in head-to-head comparisons of resulting CERs. We based our analyses on a previously published Markov model for HIV/AIDS therapies. We used the Healthcare Cost and Utilisation Project Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS) data release 6, which contains all-payer data on hospital inpatient stays from selected states. We added costs for the mean number of hospitalisations, derived from analyses based on either DRG or ICD-9 codes or risk group stratification cost weights, to the standard outpatient and prescription drug costs to yield an estimate of total charges for each AIDS-defining illness (ADI). Finally, we estimated the Markov model three times with the appropriate ADI cost weights to obtain CERs specific to the use of either DRG or ICD-9 codes or risk group. Contrary to expectations, we found that the choice of coding/grouping assumptions that are disease-specific by either DRG codes, ICD-9 codes or risk group resulted in very similar CER estimates for highly active antiretroviral therapy. The large variations in the specific ADI cost weights across the three different coding approaches was especially interesting. However, because no one approach produced consistently higher estimates than the others, the Markov model's weighted

  20. Early Dynamic Risk Stratification with Baseline Troponin Levels and 90-minute ST Segment Resolution to Predict 30 Day Cardiovascular Mortality in STEMI: Analysis from CLARITY TIMI-28

    PubMed Central

    Sherwood, Matthew W.; Morrow, David A.; Scirica, Benjamin M.; Jiang, Songtao; Bode, Christoph; Rifai, Nader; Gerszten, Robert E.; Gibson, C. Michael; Cannon, Christopher P.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sabatine, Marc S.

    2010-01-01

    Background Troponin is the preferred biomarker for risk stratification in non-ST-elevation ACS. The incremental prognostic utility of the initial magnitude of troponin elevation and its value in conjunction with ST segment resolution (STRes) in STEMI is less well-defined. Methods Troponin T (TnT) was measured in 1250 patients at presentation undergoing fibrinolysis for STEMI in CLARITY-TIMI 28. STRes was measured at 90 minutes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the independent association between TnT levels, STRes, and 30-day cardiovascular (CV) mortality. Results Patients were classified into undetectable TnT at baseline (n=594), detectable but below the median of 0.12 ng/ml (n=330), and above the median (n=326). Rates of 30-day CV death were 1.5%, 4.5%, and 9.5% respectively (P<0.0001). Compared with those with undetectable levels and adjusting for baseline factors, the odds ratios for 30-day CV death were 4.56 (1.72-12.08, P=0.002) and 5.81 (2.29-14.73, P=0.0002) for those below and above the median, respectively. When combined with STRes, there was a significant gradient of risk, and in a multivariable model both baseline TnT (P=0.004) and STRes (P=0.003) were significant predictors of 30-day CV death. The addition of TnT and STRes to clinical risk factors significantly improved the C-statistic (0.86 to 0.90, P=0.02) and the integrated discriminative improvement 7.1% (P=0.0009). Conclusions Baseline TnT and 90-minute STRes are independent predictors of 30-day CV death in patients with STEMI. Use of these two simple, readily available tools can aid clinicians in early risk stratification. PMID:20569707

  1. Comparison of different risk stratification systems in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients

    PubMed Central

    Safari, Saeed; Baratloo, Alireza; Hashemi, Behrooz; Rahmati, Farhad; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Motamedi, Maryam; Mirmohseni, Ladan

    2016-01-01

    Background: Determining etiologic causes and prognosis can significantly improve management of syncope patients. The present study aimed to compare the values of San Francisco, Osservatorio Epidemiologico sulla Sincope nel Lazio (OESIL), Boston, and Risk Stratification of Syncope in the Emergency Department (ROSE) score clinical decision rules in predicting the short-term serious outcome of syncope patients. Materials and Methods: The present diagnostic accuracy study with 1-week follow-up was designed to evaluate the predictive values of the four mentioned clinical decision rules. Screening performance characteristics of each model in predicting mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) were calculated and compared. To evaluate the value of each aforementioned model in predicting the outcome, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were calculated and receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was done. Results: A total of 187 patients (mean age: 64.2 ± 17.2 years) were enrolled in the study. Mortality, MI, and CVA were seen in 19 (10.2%), 12 (6.4%), and 36 (19.2%) patients, respectively. Area under the ROC curve for OESIL, San Francisco, Boston, and ROSE models in prediction the risk of 1-week mortality, MI, and CVA was in the 30–70% range, with no significant difference among models (P > 0.05). The pooled model did not show higher accuracy in prediction of mortality, MI, and CVA compared to others (P > 0.05). Conclusion: This study revealed the weakness of all four evaluated models in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients referred to the emergency department without any significant advantage for one among others. PMID:27904602

  2. Integrated e-Health approach based on vascular ultrasound and pulse wave analysis for asymptomatic atherosclerosis detection and cardiovascular risk stratification in the community.

    PubMed

    Santana, Daniel Bia; Zócalo, Yanina A; Armentano, Ricardo L

    2012-03-01

    New strategies are urgently needed to identify subjects at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) development or complications. A National Public University Center (CUiiDARTE) was created in Uruguay, based on six main pillars: 1) integration of experts in different disciplines and creation of multidisciplinary teams, 2) incidence in public and professional education programs to give training in the use of new technologies and to shift the focus from ACVD treatment to disease prevention, 3) implementation of free vascular studies in the community (distributed rather than centralized healthcare), 4) innovation and application of e-Health and noninvasive technology and approaches, 5) design and development of a biomedical approach to determine the target population and patient workflow, and 6) improvement in individual risk estimation and differentiation between aging and ACVD-related arterial changes using population-based epidemiological and statistical patient-specific models. This work describes main features of CUiiDARTE project implementation, the scientific and technological steps and innovations done for individual risk stratification, and sub-clinical ACVD diagnosis. © 2012 IEEE

  3. Numerical Study of Wake Vortex Behavior in Turbulent Domains with Ambient Stratification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Switzer, George F.; Proctor, Fred H.

    2000-01-01

    A three-dimensional large eddy simulation model is used to investigate the sensitivity of ambient stratification with turbulence on the behavior of aircraft wake vortices. Modeled ambient turbulence levels range from very weak to moderate, and stratification levels range from strongly stable to unstable. The results of profound significance from this study are: 1) very little sensitivity between vortex linking time and the level of stratification, 2) the mean vortex separation remained nearly constant regardless of stratification and turbulence (at least prior to linking), 3) the wake vortices did not rise regardless of the level of stratification, and 4) for very strong stratification, the vortex stopped descending and quickly dissipated even before vortex linking could occur. These results are supported by experimental data and are contrary to conclusions from other numerical studies that assume laminar flow and/or relatively-low Reynolds numbers.

  4. Drain Management after Pancreatoduodenectomy: Reappraisal of a Prospective Randomized Trial Using Risk Stratification.

    PubMed

    McMillan, Matthew T; Malleo, Giuseppe; Bassi, Claudio; Butturini, Giovanni; Salvia, Roberto; Roses, Robert E; Lee, Major K; Fraker, Douglas L; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Vollmer, Charles M

    2015-10-01

    A recent randomized trial used the Fistula Risk Score (FRS) to develop guidelines for selective drainage based on clinically relevant fistula (CR-POPF) risk. Additionally, postoperative day (POD) 1 drain and serum amylase have been identified as accurate postoperative predictors of CR-POPF. This study sought to identify patients who may benefit from selective drainage, as well as the optimal timing for drain removal after pancreatoduodenectomy. One hundred six pancreatoduodenectomies from a previously reported RCT were assessed using risk-adjustment. The incidence of CR-POPF was compared between FRS risk cohorts. Drain and serum amylase values from POD 1 were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to establish cut-offs predictive of CR-POPF occurrence. A regression analysis compared drain removal randomizations (POD 3 vs POD 5). Three-quarters of patients had moderate/high CR-POPF risk. This group had a CR-POPF rate of 36.3% vs 7.7% among negligible/low risk patients (p = 0.005). The areas under the ROC curve for CR-POPF prediction using POD 1 drain and serum amylase values were 0.800 (p = 0.000001; 95% CI 0.70-0.90) and 0.655 (p = 0.012; 95% CI 0.55-0.77), respectively. No significant serum amylase cut-offs were identified. Moderate/high risk patients with POD 1 drain amylase ≤ 5,000 U/L had significantly lower rates of CR-POPF when randomized to POD 3 drain removal (4.2% vs 38.5%; p = 0.003); moreover, these patients experienced fewer complications and shorter hospital stays. A clinical care protocol is proposed whereby drains are recommended for moderate/high FRS risk patients, but may be omitted in patients with negligible/low risk. Drain amylase values in moderate/high risk patients should then be evaluated on POD 1 to determine the optimal timing for drain removal. Moderate/high risk patients with POD 1 drain amylase ≤ 5,000 U/L have lower rates of CR-POPF with POD 3 (vs POD ≥ 5) drain removal; early drain removal is

  5. Polar ocean stratification in a cold climate.

    PubMed

    Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Haug, Gerald H

    2004-03-04

    The low-latitude ocean is strongly stratified by the warmth of its surface water. As a result, the great volume of the deep ocean has easiest access to the atmosphere through the polar surface ocean. In the modern polar ocean during the winter, the vertical distribution of temperature promotes overturning, with colder water over warmer, while the salinity distribution typically promotes stratification, with fresher water over saltier. However, the sensitivity of seawater density to temperature is reduced as temperature approaches the freezing point, with potential consequences for global ocean circulation under cold climates. Here we present deep-sea records of biogenic opal accumulation and sedimentary nitrogen isotopic composition from the Subarctic North Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean. These records indicate that vertical stratification increased in both northern and southern high latitudes 2.7 million years ago, when Northern Hemisphere glaciation intensified in association with global cooling during the late Pliocene epoch. We propose that the cooling caused this increased stratification by weakening the role of temperature in polar ocean density structure so as to reduce its opposition to the stratifying effect of the vertical salinity distribution. The shift towards stratification in the polar ocean 2.7 million years ago may have increased the quantity of carbon dioxide trapped in the abyss, amplifying the global cooling.

  6. Breakup of last glacial deep stratification in the South Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basak, Chandranath; Fröllje, Henning; Lamy, Frank; Gersonde, Rainer; Benz, Verena; Anderson, Robert F.; Molina-Kescher, Mario; Pahnke, Katharina

    2018-02-01

    Stratification of the deep Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum is thought to have facilitated carbon storage and subsequent release during the deglaciation as stratification broke down, contributing to atmospheric CO2 rise. Here, we present neodymium isotope evidence from deep to abyssal waters in the South Pacific that confirms stratification of the deepwater column during the Last Glacial Maximum. The results indicate a glacial northward expansion of Ross Sea Bottom Water and a Southern Hemisphere climate trigger for the deglacial breakup of deep stratification. It highlights the important role of abyssal waters in sustaining a deep glacial carbon reservoir and Southern Hemisphere climate change as a prerequisite for the destabilization of the water column and hence the deglacial release of sequestered CO2 through upwelling.

  7. Non-Rhabdomyosarcoma Soft Tissue Sarcomas in Children: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Analysis Validating COG Risk Stratifications

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Waxweiler, Timothy V., E-mail: timothy.waxweiler@ucdenver.edu; Rusthoven, Chad G.; Proper, Michelle S.

    Purpose: Non-rhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcomas (NRSTS) are a heterogeneous group of sarcomas that encompass over 35 histologies. With an incidence of ∼500 cases per year in the United States in those <20 years of age, NRSTS are rare and therefore difficult to study in pediatric populations. We used the large Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to validate the prognostic ability of the Children's Oncology Group (COG) risk classification system and to define patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. Methods and Materials: From SEER data from 1988 to 2007, we identified patients ≤18 years of age with NRSTS. Data for age, sex,more » year of diagnosis, race, registry, histology, grade, primary size, primary site, stage, radiation therapy, and survival outcomes were analyzed. Patients with nonmetastatic grossly resected low-grade tumors of any size or high-grade tumors ≤5 cm were considered low risk. Cases of nonmetastatic tumors that were high grade, >5 cm, or unresectable were considered intermediate risk. Patients with nodal or distant metastases were considered high risk. Results: A total of 941 patients met the review criteria. On univariate analysis, black race, malignant peripheral nerve sheath (MPNST) histology, tumors >5 cm, nonextremity primary, lymph node involvement, radiation therapy, and higher risk group were associated with significantly worse overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). On multivariate analysis, MPNST histology, chemotherapy-resistant histology, and higher risk group were significantly poor prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Compared to low-risk patients, intermediate patients showed poorer OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 6.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.53-10.47, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 6.27; 95% CI: 3.44-11.43, P<.001), and high-risk patients had the worst OS (HR: 13.35, 95% CI: 8.18-21.76, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 14.65, 95% CI: 8.49-25.28, P<.001). Conclusions: The current COG risk

  8. Risk assessment and clinical decision making for colorectal cancer screening.

    PubMed

    Schroy, Paul C; Caron, Sarah E; Sherman, Bonnie J; Heeren, Timothy C; Battaglia, Tracy A

    2015-10-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) related to test preference has been advocated as a potentially effective strategy for increasing adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet primary care providers (PCPs) are often reluctant to comply with patient preferences if they differ from their own. Risk stratification advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) provides a rational strategy for reconciling these differences. To assess the importance of risk stratification in PCP decision making related to test preference for average-risk patients and receptivity to use of an electronic risk assessment tool for ACN to facilitate SDM. Mixed methods, including qualitative key informant interviews and a cross-sectional survey. PCPs at an urban, academic safety-net institution. Screening preferences, factors influencing patient recommendations and receptivity to use of a risk stratification tool. Nine PCPs participated in interviews and 57 completed the survey. Despite an overwhelming preference for colonoscopy by 95% of respondents, patient risk (67%) and patient preferences (63%) were more influential in their decision making than patient comorbidities (31%; P < 0.001). Age was the single most influential risk factor (excluding family history), with <20% of respondents choosing factors other than age. Most respondents reported that they would be likely to use a risk stratification tool in their practice either 'often' (43%) or sometimes (53%). Risk stratification was perceived to be important in clinical decision making, yet few providers considered risk factors other than age for average-risk patients. Providers were receptive to the use of a risk assessment tool for ACN when recommending an appropriate screening test for select patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Do doctors accurately assess coronary risk in their patients? Preliminary results of the coronary health assessment study.

    PubMed Central

    Grover, S. A.; Lowensteyn, I.; Esrey, K. L.; Steinert, Y.; Joseph, L.; Abrahamowicz, M.

    1995-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the ability of doctors in primary care to assess risk patients' risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN--Questionnaire survey. SETTING--Continuing medical education meetings, Ontario and Quebec, Canada. SUBJECTS--Community based doctors who agreed to enroll in the coronary health assessment study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Ratings of coronary risk factors and estimates by doctors of relative and absolute coronary risk of two hypothetical patients and the "average" 40 year old Canadian man and 70 year old Canadian woman. RESULTS--253 doctors answered the questionnaire. For 30 year olds the doctors rated cigarette smoking as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important; for 70 year old patients they rated diabetes as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important. They rated each individual risk factor as significantly less important for 70 year olds than for 30 year olds (all risk factors, P < 0.001). They showed a strong understanding of the relative importance of specific risk factors, and most were confident in their ability to estimate coronary risk. While doctors accurately estimated the relative risk of a specific patient (compared with the average adult) they systematically overestimated the absolute baseline risk of developing coronary disease and the risk reductions associated with specific interventions. CONCLUSIONS--Despite guidelines on targeting patients at high risk of coronary disease accurate assessment of coronary risk remains difficult for many doctors. Additional strategies must be developed to help doctors to assess better their patients' coronary risk. PMID:7728035

  10. Papanicolaou Society of Cytopathology new guidelines have a greater ability of risk stratification for pancreatic endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration specimens

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Bo; Zhao, Yu; Gu, Jiangang; Wu, Huanwen; Liang, Zhiyong; Meng, Zhilan

    2017-01-01

    The Papanicolaou Society of Cytopathology has recently proposed a standardized terminology and nomenclature guidelines for pancreatic cytology. However the risk of malignancy associated with the new guidelines has been scarcely studied. In this study, a series of pancreatic cytology cases obtained by endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration from 294 Chinese patients were retrospectively re-categorized into six categories according the new guidelines. The risks of malignancy were 18.1% for “negative,” 20.0% for “neoplastic,” 57.1% for “nondiagnostic,” 69.2% for “atypical,” 87.5% for “suspicious,” and 100.0% for “positive” respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93 (95% Confidence Interval, 0.90-0.96), which was significantly higher than that associated with old classification system (0.82; 95% Confidence Interval, 0.77-0.87) conventionally used in China. Our investigation demonstrated that the new guidelines have a greater ability of risk stratification than the old classification system conventionally used in China. This may be helpful in giving better predictions of malignancy, thus leading to more personalized treatment strategies. PMID:28042957

  11. Acute myeloid leukemia: 2013 update on risk-stratification and management.

    PubMed

    Estey, Elihu H

    2013-04-01

    RNA) expression also affect resistance as do post treatment factors, in particular the presence of minimal residual disease. These newer mutations and MRD are discussed in this update. Patients with inv (16) or t(8;21) or who are NPM1+/FLT3ITD-can receive standard therapy (daunorubicin + cytarabine) and should not receive HCT in first CR. It seems likely that use of a daily daunorubicin dose of 90 mg/m(2) will further improve outcome in these patients. There appears no reason to use doses of cytarabine > 1 g/m(2) (for example bid X 6 days), as opposed to the more commonly used 3 g/m(2) . Patients with an unfavorable karyotype (particularly MK) are unlikely to benefit from standard therapy (even with dose escalation) and are thus prime candidates for clinical trials of new drugs or new approaches to HCT; the latter should be done in first CR. Patients with intermediate prognoses (for example NK and NPM and FLT3ITD negative) should also receive HCT in first CR and can plausibly receive either investigational or standard induction therapy, with the same prognostic information about standard therapy leading one patient to choose the standard and another an investigational option. This update discusses results with newer agents: quizartinib and crenolanib, gemtuzumab ozogamicin, clofarabine and cladribine, azacitidine and decitabine, volasertib, and means to prevent relapse after allogeneic transplant. The diagnosis of AML essentially is made as it was in 2012. Thus this review will emphasize new developments in risk stratification and treatment using as references many papers published in 2012. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Coronary Artery Calcium Scores and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Stratification in Smokers: MESA.

    PubMed

    Leigh, Adam; McEvoy, John W; Garg, Parveen; Carr, J Jeffrey; Sandfort, Veit; Oelsner, Elizabeth C; Budoff, Matthew; Herrington, David; Yeboah, Joseph

    2018-02-09

    This study assessed the utility of the pooled cohort equation (PCE) and/or coronary artery calcium (CAC) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment in smokers, especially those who were lung cancer screening eligible (LCSE). The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommended and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services currently pays for annual screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography scans in a specified group of cigarette smokers. CAC can be obtained from these low-dose scans. The incremental utility of CAC for ASCVD risk stratification remains unclear in this high-risk group. Of 6,814 MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants, 3,356 (49.2% of total cohort) were smokers (2,476 former and 880 current), and 14.3% were LCSE. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards, area under the curve, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analyses were used to assess the association between PCE and/or CAC and incident ASCVD. Incident ASCVD was defined as coronary death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. Smokers had a mean age of 62.1 years, 43.5% were female, and all had a mean of 23.0 pack-years of smoking. The LCSE sample had a mean age of 65.3 years, 39.1% were female, and all had a mean of 56.7 pack-years of smoking. After a mean of 11.1 years of follow-up 13.4% of all smokers and 20.8% of LCSE smokers had ASCVD events; 6.7% of all smokers and 14.2% of LCSE smokers with CAC = 0 had an ASCVD event during the follow-up. One SD increase in the PCE 10-year risk was associated with a 68% increase risk for ASCVD events in all smokers (hazard ratio: 1.68; 95% confidence interval: 1.57 to 1.80) and a 22% increase in risk for ASCVD events in the LCSE smokers (hazard ratio: 1.22; 95% confidence interval: 1.00 to 1.47). CAC was associated with increased ASCVD risk in all smokers and in LCSE smokers in all the Cox models. The C-statistic of the PCE for ASCVD was higher in all

  13. Current state of prognostication and risk stratification in myelodysplastic syndromes.

    PubMed

    Zeidan, Amer M; Gore, Steven D; Padron, Eric; Komrokji, Rami S

    2015-03-01

    Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are characterized by significant biologic and clinical heterogeneity. Because of the wide outcome variability, accurate prognostication is vital to high-quality risk-adaptive care of MDS patients. In this review, we discuss the current state of prognostic schemes for MDS and overview efforts aimed at utilizing molecular aberrations for prognostication in clinical practice. Several prognostic instruments have been developed and validated with increasing accuracy and complexity. Oncologists should be aware of the inherent limitations of these prognostic tools as they counsel patients and make clinical decisions. As more therapies are becoming available for MDS, the focus of model development is shifting from prognostic to treatment-specific predictive instruments. In addition to providing additional prognostic data beyond traditional clinical and pathologic parameters, the improved understanding of the genetic landscape and pathophysiologic consequences in MDS may allow the construction of treatment-specific predictive instruments. How to best use the results of molecular mutation testing to inform clinical decision making in MDS is still a work in progress. Important steps in this direction include standardization in performance and interpretation of assays and better understanding of the independent prognostic importance of the recurrent mutations, especially the less frequent ones.

  14. Contemporary approach to stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: Risks, benefits, and new options.

    PubMed

    Stock, Jonathan; Malm, Brian J

    2018-04-04

    Atrial fibrillation is a common diagnosis affecting nearly 3 million adults in the United States. Morbidity and mortality in these patients is driven largely by the associated increased risk of thromboembolic complications, especially stroke. Atrial fibrillation is a stronger risk factor than hypertension, coronary disease, or heart failure and is associated with an approximately five-fold increased risk. Mitigating stroke risk can be challenging and requires accurate assessment of stroke risk factors and careful selection of appropriate therapy. Anticoagulation, including the more recently introduced direct oral anticoagulants, is the standard of care for most patients. In addition, emerging non-pharmacologic mechanical interventions are playing an expanding role in reducing stroke risk in select patients. In this review we highlight the current approach to stroke risk stratification in atrial fibrillation and discuss in detail the mechanism, risks, and benefits of current and evolving therapies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study.

    PubMed

    Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

    2018-03-01

    While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (p<0.001) and MBR factors score (p=0.013) but not ATRIA and ORBIT scores. When HAS-BLED was compared to other bleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (p<0.001) and ORBIT (p=0.05) scores for major bleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all p<0.001). When NRI was performed, HAS-BLED outperformed all other bleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all p<0.001). C-indexes for ATRIA and ORBIT scores suggested no significant prediction for ICH. All contemporary bleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major

  16. Unanswered questions for management of acute coronary syndrome: risk stratification of patients with minimal disease or normal findings on coronary angiography.

    PubMed

    Bugiardini, Raffaele; Manfrini, Olivia; De Ferrari, Gaetano M

    2006-07-10

    The prognostic implication of chest pain associated with normal or near-normal findings on angiography is still unknown. We explored outcomes and methods of risk stratification in patients with nonobstructive coronary artery disease in the setting of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. Data were pooled from 3 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials (TIMI 11B, TIMI 16, and TIMI 22). Angiographic data were available on 7656 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. The primary end point of this analysis was the composite of the rates of death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina requiring rehospitalization, revascularization, and stroke at 1-year follow-up. Outcomes were evaluated by mean of the TIMI risk score for developing at least 1 component of the primary end point. Angiographic findings showed that 710 (9.1%) of 7656 patients had nonobstructive coronary artery disease; 48.7% of these had normal coronary arteries (0% stenosis), and 51.3% had mild coronary artery disease (>0% to <50% stenosis). A primary end-point event occurred in 101 patients (12.1%). It is noteworthy that a 2% event rate of deaths and myocardial infarctions had occurred in these patients at the 1-year follow-up. Event rates of death and myocardial infarction increased significantly as the TIMI risk score increased from 0.6% for a score of 1 to 4.0% for a score greater than 4. Patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes with nonobstructive coronary artery disease detected by angiography have a substantial risk of subsequent coronary events within 1 year. The risk is not univariately high, and the TIMI risk score helps to reveal patients at high risk.

  17. Principal stratification in causal inference.

    PubMed

    Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

    2002-03-01

    Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

  18. Risk stratification and prognostic performance of the predisposition, infection, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) scoring system in septic patients in the emergency department: a cohort study.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

    2014-04-16

    The predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction (PIRO) staging system was designed as a stratification tool to deal with the inherent heterogeneity of septic patients. The present study was conducted to assess the performance of PIRO in predicting multiple organ dysfunction (MOD), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 28-day mortality in septic patients in the emergency department (ED), and to compare this scoring system with the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) scores. Consecutive septic patients (n = 680) admitted to the ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were enrolled. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores were calculated for each patient on ED arrival. Organ function was reassessed within 3 days of enrollment. All patients were followed up for 28 days. Outcome criteria were the development of MOD within 3 days, ICU admission or death within 28 days after enrollment. The predictive ability of the four components of PIRO was analyzed separately. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic and risk stratification value of the scoring systems. Organ dysfunction independently predicted ICU admission, MOD, and 28-day mortality, with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.888, 0.851, and 0.816, respectively. The predictive value of predisposition, infection, and response was weaker than that of organ dysfunction. A negative correlation was found between the response component and MOD, as well as mortality. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores significantly differed between patients who did and did not meet the outcome criteria (P < 0.001). PIRO and APACHE II independently predicted ICU admission and MOD, but MEDS did not. All three systems were independent predictors of 28-day mortality with similar AUC values. The AUC of PIRO was 0.889 for ICU admission, 0.817 for MOD, and 0.744 for 28-day mortality. The AUCs

  19. Prognostic value of the Ortho Vitros cardiac troponin I assay in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia. Risk stratification using European Society of Cardiology/American College of Cardiology recommended cutoff values.

    PubMed

    Apple, Fred S; Murakami, MaryAnn M; Quist, Heidi H; Pearce, Lesly A; Wieczorek, Stacey; Wu, Alan H B

    2003-07-01

    We evaluated the risk assessment value of a commercial cardiac troponin (cTn; Ortho Vitros ECi, Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics, Raritan, NJ) I assay in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia suggestive of acute coronary syndrome and compared findings with those for a commercial cTnT assay in the same population. The cTn levels were measured by both assays in plasma samples from 273 patients during 24 hours after admission. Baseline and maximum concentrations were used for risk stratification; cutoffs were the 99th percentile and 10% coefficient of variation. End points were all-cause death and cardiac events within 60 days. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves. RRs of cardiac events and death were significantly higher with increased baseline and maximum concentrations using either cTnI cutoff. The respective mortality rates for baseline cTnI of more than 0.08 microgram/L vs 0.08 microgram/L or less were 17.4% vs 2.9% (P = .001); cardiac event rates were 11.5% vs 3.6% (P = .03). Exclusion of patients with ST-segment elevation had no significant effect on rates for either assay. Mortality was higher in the intermediate (0.09-0.2 microgram/L) than in the low (< or = 0.08 microgram/L) group for cTnI, with directionally similar results for cTnT. Our findings validate the Ortho cTnI assay as a risk stratification biomarker in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia.

  20. Risk stratification for large artery or chronic coronary artery disease-related ischemic stroke in octogenarians undergoing exercise stress myocardial perfusion imaging: A cohort study.

    PubMed

    Katsikis, Athanasios; Theodorakos, Athanasios; Drosatos, Alexandros; Konstantinou, Konstantinos; Papaioannou, Spyridon; Koutelou, Maria

    2017-04-01

    To test, if in octogenarians, treadmill exercise with myocardial perfusion imaging (exercise-MPI) can risk stratify for large artery or chronic CAD-related ischemic stroke (LACCIS). Exercise-MPI-related data of 237 octogenarians (55% prior MI or revascularization) without previous stroke were registered and prospective follow-up was performed to document LACCIS. LACCIS was defined as acute onset of neurological symptoms with CT/MRI findings of non-lacunar-type infarcts in the absence of atrial fibrillation or intracardiac embolic sources. After 7.3 years, 10 LACCIS were documented. SSS [HR 1.08 (1.02-1.13 95% CIs), SDS [HR 1.1 (1.04-1.16 95% CIs)], and non-sustained VT or transient AV block during exercise [HR 3.9 (1.7-9.0 95% CIs)] were predictors of LACCIS (P < .01 for all). A SSS threshold of 16 had 81% specificity for identification of future LACCIS and risk groups formed according to this cut-off had significantly different LACCIS-free survival (P = .015). Exercise-MPI in octogenarians can provide risk stratification markers for LACCIS.

  1. Assessment of PaO2/FiO2 for stratification of patients with moderate and severe acute respiratory distress syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Villar, Jesús; Blanco, Jesús; del Campo, Rafael; Andaluz-Ojeda, David; Díaz-Domínguez, Francisco J; Muriel, Arturo; Córcoles, Virgilio; Suárez-Sipmann, Fernando; Tarancón, Concepción; González-Higueras, Elena; López, Julia; Blanch, Lluis; Pérez-Méndez, Lina; Fernández, Rosa Lidia; Kacmarek, Robert M

    2015-01-01

    Objectives A recent update of the definition of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) proposed an empirical classification based on ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) at ARDS onset. Since the proposal did not mandate PaO2/FiO2 calculation under standardised ventilator settings (SVS), we hypothesised that a stratification based on baseline PaO2/FiO2 would not provide accurate assessment of lung injury severity. Design A prospective, multicentre, observational study. Setting A network of teaching hospitals. Participants 478 patients with eligible criteria for moderate (100300). Primary and secondary outcomes Group severity and hospital mortality. Results At ARDS onset, 173 patients had a PaO2/FiO2≤100 but only 38.7% met criteria for severe ARDS at 24 h under SVS. When assessed under SVS, 61.3% of patients with severe ARDS were reclassified as moderate, mild and non-ARDS, while lung severity and hospital mortality changed markedly with every PaO2/FiO2 category (p<0.000001). Our model of risk stratification outperformed the stratification using baseline PaO2/FiO2 and non-standardised PaO2/FiO2 at 24 h, when analysed by the predictive receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve: area under the ROC curve for stratification at baseline was 0.583 (95% CI 0.525 to 0.636), 0.605 (95% CI 0.552 to 0.658) at 24 h without SVS and 0.693 (95% CI 0.645 to 0.742) at 24 h under SVS (p<0.000001). Conclusions Our findings support the need for patient assessment under SVS at 24 h after ARDS onset to assess disease severity, and have implications for the

  2. Current indications for transplantation: stratification of severe heart failure and shared decision-making.

    PubMed

    Vucicevic, Darko; Honoris, Lily; Raia, Federica; Deng, Mario

    2018-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that results from structural or functional cardiovascular disorders causing a mismatch between demand and supply of oxygenated blood and consecutive failure of the body's organs. For those patients with stage D HF, advanced therapies, such as mechanical circulatory support (MCS) or heart transplantation (HTx), are potentially life-saving options. The role of risk stratification of patients with stage D HF in a value-based healthcare framework is to predict which subset might benefit from advanced HF (AdHF) therapies, to improve outcomes related to the individual patient including mortality, morbidity and patient experience as well as to optimize health care delivery system outcomes such as cost-effectiveness. Risk stratification and subsequent outcome prediction as well as therapeutic recommendation-making need to be based on the comparative survival benefit rationale. A robust model needs to (I) have the power to discriminate (i.e., to correctly risk stratify patients); (II) calibrate (i.e., to show agreement between the predicted and observed risk); (III) to be applicable to the general population; and (IV) provide good external validation. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) are two of the most widely utilized scores. However, outcomes for patients with HF are highly variable which make clinical predictions challenging. Despite our clinical expertise and current prediction tools, the best short- and long-term survival for the individual patient, particularly the sickest patient, is not easy to identify because among the most severely ill, elderly and frail patients, most preoperative prediction tools have the tendency to be imprecise in estimating risk. They should be used as a guide in a clinical encounter grounded in a culture of shared decision-making, with the expert healthcare professional team as consultants and the patient as an empowered decision-maker in a

  3. Utility of both Carotid Intima-media Thickness and Endothelial Function for Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Angina-like Symptoms

    PubMed Central

    Matsuzawa, Yasushi; Svedlund, Sara; Aoki, Tatsuo; Guddeti, Raviteja R.; Kwon, Taek-Geun; Cilluffo, Rebecca; Widmer, R.Jay.; Nelson, Rebecca E.; Lennon, Ryan J.; Lerman, Lilach O.; Gao, Sinsia; Ganz, Peter; Gan, Li-Ming; Lerman, Amir

    2015-01-01

    Background Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) is used widely to assess cardiovascular risk in patients with chest pain. The utility of carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and endothelial function as assessed by reactive hyperemia-peripheral arterial tonometry index (RHI) in risk stratifying patients with angina-like symptom needs to be defined. We investigated whether addition of CIMT and RHI to Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (FCVRS) and MPS improves comprehensive cardiovascular risk prediction in patients presenting with angina-like symptom. Methods We enrolled 343 consecutive patients with angina-like symptom suspected of having stable angina. MPS, CIMT, and RHI were performed and patients were followed for cardiovascular events for a median of 5.3 years (range 4.4-6.2). Patients were stratified by FCVRS and MPS. Results During the follow-up, 57 patients (16.6%) had cardiovascular events. Among patients without perfusion defect, low RHI was significantly associated with cardiovascular events in the intermediate and high FCVRS groups (Hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of RHI≤2.11 was 6.99 [1.34-128] in the intermediate FCVRS group and 6.08 [1.08-114] in the high FCVRS group). Furthermore, although MPS did not predict, only RHI predicted hard cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke) independent from FCVRS, and adding RHI to FCVRS improved net reclassification index (20.9%, 95% CI 0.8-41.1, p=0.04). Especially, RHI was significantly associated with hard cardiovascular events in the high FCVRS group (HR [95% CI] of RHI≤1.93 was 5.66 [1.54-36.4], p=0.007). Conclusions Peripheral endothelial function may improve discrimination in identifying at-risk patients for future cardiovascular events when added to FCVRS-MPS-based risk stratification. PMID:25918056

  4. A new map of global ecological land units—An ecophysiographic stratification approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sayre, Roger; Dangermond, Jack; Frye, Charlie; Vaughan, Randy; Aniello, Peter; Breyer, Sean P.; Cribbs, Douglas; Hopkins, Dabney; Nauman, Richard; Derrenbacher, William; Wright, Dawn J.; Brown, Clint; Convis, Charles; Smith, Jonathan H.; Benson, Laurence; Van Sistine, Darren; Warner, Harumi; Cress, Jill Janene; Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Hamann, Sharon L.; Cecere, Thomas; Reddy, Ashwan D.; Burton, Devon; Grosse, Andrea; True, Diane; Metzger, Marc; Hartmann, Jens; Moosdorf, Nils; Durr, Hans; Paganini, Marc; Defourny, Pierre; Arino, Olivier; Maynard, Simone; Anderson, Mark; Comer, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    In response to the need and an intergovernmental commission for a high resolution and data-derived global ecosystem map, land surface elements of global ecological pattern were characterized in an ecophysiographic stratification of the planet. The stratification produced 3,923 terrestrial ecological land units (ELUs) at a base resolution of 250 meters. The ELUs were derived from data on land surface features in a three step approach. The first step involved acquiring or developing four global raster datalayers representing the primary components of ecosystem structure: bioclimate, landform, lithology, and land cover. These datasets generally represent the most accurate, current, globally comprehensive, and finest spatial and thematic resolution data available for each of the four inputs. The second step involved a spatial combination of the four inputs into a single, new integrated raster dataset where every cell represents a combination of values from the bioclimate, landforms, lithology, and land cover datalayers. This foundational global raster datalayer, called ecological facets (EFs), contains 47,650 unique combinations of the four inputs. The third step involved an aggregation of the EFs into the 3,923 ELUs. This subdivision of the Earth’s surface into relatively fine, ecological land areas is designed to be useful for various types of ecosystem research and management applications, including assessments of climate change impacts to ecosystems, economic and non-economic valuation of ecosystem services, and conservation planning.

  5. Temperature Stratification in a Cryogenic Fuel Tank

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew John; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Boschee, Jacob; Foygel, Michael Gregory

    2013-01-01

    A reduced dynamical model describing temperature stratification effects driven by natural convection in a liquid hydrogen cryogenic fuel tank has been developed. It accounts for cryogenic propellant loading, storage, and unloading in the conditions of normal, increased, and micro- gravity. The model involves multiple horizontal control volumes in both liquid and ullage spaces. Temperature and velocity boundary layers at the tank walls are taken into account by using correlation relations. Heat exchange involving the tank wall is considered by means of the lumped-parameter method. By employing basic conservation laws, the model takes into consideration the major multi-phase mass and energy exchange processes involved, such as condensation-evaporation of the hydrogen, as well as flows of hydrogen liquid and vapor in the presence of pressurizing helium gas. The model involves a liquid hydrogen feed line and a tank ullage vent valve for pressure control. The temperature stratification effects are investigated, including in the presence of vent valve oscillations. A simulation of temperature stratification effects in a generic cryogenic tank has been implemented in Matlab and results are presented for various tank conditions.

  6. Drainage and Stratification Kinetics of Foam Films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yiran; Sharma, Vivek

    2014-03-01

    Baking bread, brewing cappuccino, pouring beer, washing dishes, shaving, shampooing, whipping eggs and blowing bubbles all involve creation of aqueous foam films. Foam lifetime, drainage kinetics and stability are strongly influenced by surfactant type (ionic vs non-ionic), and added proteins, particles or polymers modify typical responses. The rate at which fluid drains out from a foam film, i.e. drainage kinetics, is determined in the last stages primarily by molecular interactions and capillarity. Interestingly, for certain low molecular weight surfactants, colloids and polyelectrolyte-surfactant mixtures, a layered ordering of molecules, micelles or particles inside the foam films leads to a stepwise thinning phenomena called stratification. Though stratification is observed in many confined systems including foam films containing particles or polyelectrolytes, films containing globular proteins seem not to show this behavior. Using a Scheludko-type cell, we experimentally study the drainage and stratification kinetics of horizontal foam films formed by protein-surfactant mixtures, and carefully determine how the presence of proteins influences the hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of foam films.

  7. Comparison of EHR-based diagnosis documentation locations to a gold standard for risk stratification in patients with multiple chronic conditions.

    PubMed

    Martin, Shelby; Wagner, Jesse; Lupulescu-Mann, Nicoleta; Ramsey, Katrina; Cohen, Aaron; Graven, Peter; Weiskopf, Nicole G; Dorr, David A

    2017-08-02

    To measure variation among four different Electronic Health Record (EHR) system documentation locations versus 'gold standard' manual chart review for risk stratification in patients with multiple chronic illnesses. Adults seen in primary care with EHR evidence of at least one of 13 conditions were included. EHRs were manually reviewed to determine presence of active diagnoses, and risk scores were calculated using three different methodologies and five EHR documentation locations. Claims data were used to assess cost and utilization for the following year. Descriptive and diagnostic statistics were calculated for each EHR location. Criterion validity testing compared the gold standard verified diagnoses versus other EHR locations and risk scores in predicting future cost and utilization. Nine hundred patients had 2,179 probable diagnoses. About 70% of the diagnoses from the EHR were verified by gold standard. For a subset of patients having baseline and prediction year data (n=750), modeling showed that the gold standard was the best predictor of outcomes on average for a subset of patients that had these data. However, combining all data sources together had nearly equivalent performance for prediction as the gold standard. EHR data locations were inaccurate 30% of the time, leading to improvement in overall modeling from a gold standard from chart review for individual diagnoses. However, the impact on identification of the highest risk patients was minor, and combining data from different EHR locations was equivalent to gold standard performance. The reviewer's ability to identify a diagnosis as correct was influenced by a variety of factors, including completeness, temporality, and perceived accuracy of chart data.

  8. Evaluating the Laboratory Risk Indicator to Differentiate Cellulitis from Necrotizing Fasciitis in the Emergency Department

    PubMed Central

    Neeki, Michael M.; Dong, Fanglong; Au, Christine; Toy, Jake; Khoshab, Nima; Lee, Carol; Kwong, Eugene; Yuen, Ho Wang; Lee, Jonathan; Ayvazian, Arbi; Lux, Pamela; Borger, Rodney

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is an uncommon but rapidly progressive infection that results in gross morbidity and mortality if not treated in its early stages. The Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) score is used to distinguish NF from other soft tissue infections such as cellulitis or abscess. This study analyzed the ability of the LRINEC score to accurately rule out NF in patients who were confirmed to have cellulitis, as well as the capability to differentiate cellulitis from NF. Methods This was a 10-year retrospective chart-review study that included emergency department (ED) patients ≥18 years old with a diagnosis of cellulitis or NF. We calculated a LRINEC score ranging from 0–13 for each patient with all pertinent laboratory values. Three categories were developed per the original LRINEC score guidelines denoting NF risk stratification: high risk (LRINEC score ≥8), moderate risk (LRINEC score 6–7), and low risk (LRINEC score ≤5). All cases missing laboratory values were due to the absence of a C-reactive protein (CRP) value. Since the score for a negative or positive CRP value for the LRINEC score was 0 or 4 respectively, a LRINEC score of 0 or 1 without a CRP value would have placed the patient in the “low risk” group and a LRINEC score of 8 or greater without CRP value would have placed the patient in the “high risk” group. These patients missing CRP values were added to these respective groups. Results Among the 948 ED patients with cellulitis, more than one-tenth (10.7%, n=102 of 948) were moderate or high risk for NF based on LRINEC score. Of the 135 ED patients with a diagnosis of NF, 22 patients had valid CRP laboratory values and LRINEC scores were calculated. Among the other 113 patients without CRP values, six patients had a LRINEC score ≥ 8, and 19 patients had a LRINEC score ≤ 1. Thus, a total of 47 patients were further classified based on LRINEC score without a CRP value. More than

  9. Predictive risk stratification model: a progressive cluster-randomised trial in chronic conditions management (PRISMATIC) research protocol

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background An ageing population increases demand on health and social care. New approaches are needed to shift care from hospital to community and general practice. A predictive risk stratification tool (Prism) has been developed for general practice that estimates risk of an emergency hospital admission in the following year. We present a protocol for the evaluation of Prism. Methods/Design We will undertake a mixed methods progressive cluster-randomised trial. Practices begin as controls, delivering usual care without Prism. Practices will receive Prism and training randomly, and thereafter be able to use Prism with clinical and technical support. We will compare costs, processes of care, satisfaction and patient outcomes at baseline, 6 and 18 months, using routine data and postal questionnaires. We will assess technical performance by comparing predicted against actual emergency admissions. Focus groups and interviews will be undertaken to understand how Prism is perceived and adopted by practitioners and policy makers. We will model data using generalised linear models and survival analysis techniques to determine whether any differences exist between intervention and control groups. We will take account of covariates and explanatory factors. In the economic evaluation we will carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to examine incremental cost per emergency admission to hospital avoided and will examine costs versus changes in primary and secondary outcomes in a cost-consequence analysis. We will also examine changes in quality of life of patients across the risk spectrum. We will record and transcribe focus groups and interviews and analyse them thematically. We have received full ethical and R&D approvals for the study and Information Governance Review Panel (IGRP) permission for the use of routine data. We will comply with the CONSORT guidelines and will disseminate the findings at national and international conferences and in peer-reviewed journals

  10. Risk factors and screening instruments to predict adverse outcomes for undifferentiated older emergency department patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Carpenter, Christopher R; Shelton, Erica; Fowler, Susan; Suffoletto, Brian; Platts-Mills, Timothy F; Rothman, Richard E; Hogan, Teresita M

    2015-01-01

    , malnutrition, pressure sore risk, and self-rated health. None of these risk factors significantly increased the risk of adverse outcome (LR+ range = 0.78 to 2.84). The absence of dependency reduces the risk of 1-year mortality (LR- = 0.27) and nursing home placement (LR- = 0.27). Five constructs of frailty were evaluated, but none increased or decreased the risk of adverse outcome. Three instruments were evaluated in the meta-analysis: Identification of Seniors at Risk, Triage Risk Screening Tool, and Variables Indicative of Placement Risk. None of these instruments significantly increased (LR+ range for various outcomes = 0.98 to 1.40) or decreased (LR- range = 0.53 to 1.11) the risk of adverse outcomes. The test threshold for 3-month functional decline based on the most accurate instrument was 42%, and the treatment threshold was 61%. Risk stratification of geriatric adults following ED care is limited by the lack of pragmatic, accurate, and reliable instruments. Although absence of dependency reduces the risk of 1-year mortality, no individual risk factor, frailty construct, or risk assessment instrument accurately predicts risk of adverse outcomes in older ED patients. Existing instruments designed to risk stratify older ED patients do not accurately distinguish high- or low-risk subsets. Clinicians, educators, and policy-makers should not use these instruments as valid predictors of post-ED adverse outcomes. Future research to derive and validate feasible ED instruments to distinguish vulnerable elders should employ published decision instrument methods and examine the contributions of alternative variables, such as health literacy and dementia, which often remain clinically occult. © 2014 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  11. Eddy-driven stratification initiates North Atlantic spring phytoplankton blooms.

    PubMed

    Mahadevan, Amala; D'Asaro, Eric; Lee, Craig; Perry, Mary Jane

    2012-07-06

    Springtime phytoplankton blooms photosynthetically fix carbon and export it from the surface ocean at globally important rates. These blooms are triggered by increased light exposure of the phytoplankton due to both seasonal light increase and the development of a near-surface vertical density gradient (stratification) that inhibits vertical mixing of the phytoplankton. Classically and in current climate models, that stratification is ascribed to a springtime warming of the sea surface. Here, using observations from the subpolar North Atlantic and a three-dimensional biophysical model, we show that the initial stratification and resulting bloom are instead caused by eddy-driven slumping of the basin-scale north-south density gradient, resulting in a patchy bloom beginning 20 to 30 days earlier than would occur by warming.

  12. Breakup of last glacial deep stratification in the South Pacific.

    PubMed

    Basak, Chandranath; Fröllje, Henning; Lamy, Frank; Gersonde, Rainer; Benz, Verena; Anderson, Robert F; Molina-Kescher, Mario; Pahnke, Katharina

    2018-02-23

    Stratification of the deep Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum is thought to have facilitated carbon storage and subsequent release during the deglaciation as stratification broke down, contributing to atmospheric CO 2 rise. Here, we present neodymium isotope evidence from deep to abyssal waters in the South Pacific that confirms stratification of the deepwater column during the Last Glacial Maximum. The results indicate a glacial northward expansion of Ross Sea Bottom Water and a Southern Hemisphere climate trigger for the deglacial breakup of deep stratification. It highlights the important role of abyssal waters in sustaining a deep glacial carbon reservoir and Southern Hemisphere climate change as a prerequisite for the destabilization of the water column and hence the deglacial release of sequestered CO 2 through upwelling. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  13. The Effect of Barotropic and Baroclinic Tides on Coastal Stratification and Mixing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suanda, S. H.; Feddersen, F.; Kumar, N.

    2017-12-01

    The effects of barotropic and baroclinic tides on subtidal stratification and vertical mixing are examined with high-resolution, three-dimensional numerical simulations of the Central Californian coastal upwelling region. A base simulation with realistic atmospheric and regional-scale boundary forcing but no tides (NT) is compared to two simulations with the addition of predominantly barotropic local tides (LT) and with combined barotropic and remotely generated, baroclinic tides (WT) with ≈ 100 W m-1 onshore baroclinic energy flux. During a 10 day period of coastal upwelling when the domain volume-averaged temperature is similar in all three simulations, LT has little difference in subtidal temperature and stratification compared to NT. In contrast, the addition of remote baroclinic tides (WT) reduces the subtidal continental shelf stratification up to 50% relative to NT. Idealized simulations to isolate barotropic and baroclinic effects demonstrate that within a parameter space of typical U.S. West Coast continental shelf slopes, barotropic tidal currents, incident energy flux, and subtidal stratification, the dissipating baroclinic tide destroys stratification an order of magnitude faster than barotropic tides. In WT, the modeled vertical temperature diffusivity at the top (base) of the bottom (surface) boundary layer is increased up to 20 times relative to NT. Therefore, the width of the inner-shelf (region of surface and bottom boundary layer overlap) is increased approximately 4 times relative to NT. The change in stratification due to dissipating baroclinic tides is comparable to the magnitude of the observed seasonal cycle of stratification.

  14. Revealing the timing of ocean stratification using remotely-sensed ocean fronts: links with marine predators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, P. I.; Loveday, B. R.

    2016-02-01

    Stratification is of critical importance to the mixing and productivity of the ocean, though currently it can only be measured using in situ sampling, profiling buoys or underwater autonomous vehicles. Stratification is understood to affect the surface aggregation of pelagic fish and hence the foraging behaviour and distribution of their predators such as seabirds and cetaceans. Satellite Earth observation sensors cannot directly detect stratification, but can observe surface features related to the presence of stratification, for example shelf-sea fronts that separate tidally-mixed water from seasonally stratified water. This presentation describes a novel algorithm that accumulates evidence for stratification from a sequence of oceanic front maps, and in certain regions can reveal the timing of the seasonal onset and breakdown of stratification. Initial comparisons will be made with seabird locations acquired through GPS tagging. If successful, a remotely-sensed stratification timing index would augment the ocean front metrics already developed at PML, that have been applied in over 20 journal articles relating marine predators to ocean fronts. The figure below shows a preliminary remotely-sensed 'stratification' index, for 25-31 Jul. 2010, where red indicates water with stronger evidence for stratification.

  15. Stratification of Recanalization for Patients with Endovascular Treatment of Intracranial Aneurysms

    PubMed Central

    Ogilvy, Christopher S.; Chua, Michelle H.; Fusco, Matthew R.; Reddy, Arra S.; Thomas, Ajith J.

    2015-01-01

    Background With increasing utilization of endovascular techniques in the treatment of both ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms, the issue of obliteration efficacy has become increasingly important. Objective Our goal was to systematically develop a comprehensive model for predicting retreatment with various types of endovascular treatment. Methods We retrospectively reviewed medical records that were prospectively collected for 305 patients who received endovascular treatment for intracranial aneurysms from 2007 to 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was performed on candidate predictors identified by univariable screening analysis to detect independent predictors of retreatment. A composite risk score was constructed based on the proportional contribution of independent predictors in the multivariable model. Results Size (>10 mm), aneurysm rupture, stent assistance, and post-treatment degree of aneurysm occlusion were independently associated with retreatment while intraluminal thrombosis and flow diversion demonstrated a trend towards retreatment. The Aneurysm Recanalization Stratification Scale was constructed by assigning the following weights to statistically and clinically significant predictors. Aneurysm-specific factors: Size (>10 mm), 2 points; rupture, 2 points; presence of thrombus, 2 points. Treatment-related factors: Stent assistance, -1 point; flow diversion, -2 points; Raymond Roy 2 occlusion, 1 point; Raymond Roy 3 occlusion, 2 points. This scale demonstrated good discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.799. Conclusion Surgical decision-making and patient-centered informed consent require comprehensive and accessible information on treatment efficacy. We have constructed the Aneurysm Recanalization Stratification Scale to enhance this decision-making process. This is the first comprehensive model that has been developed to quantitatively predict the risk of retreatment following endovascular therapy. PMID:25621984

  16. Areal Control Using Generalized Least Squares As An Alternative to Stratification

    Treesearch

    Raymond L. Czaplewski

    2001-01-01

    Stratification for both variance reduction and areal control proliferates the number of strata, which causes small sample sizes in many strata. This might compromise statistical efficiency. Generalized least squares can, in principle, replace stratification for areal control.

  17. Development and applications of the Veterans Health Administration's Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM) to improve opioid safety and prevent overdose and suicide.

    PubMed

    Oliva, Elizabeth M; Bowe, Thomas; Tavakoli, Sara; Martins, Susana; Lewis, Eleanor T; Paik, Meenah; Wiechers, Ilse; Henderson, Patricia; Harvey, Michael; Avoundjian, Tigran; Medhanie, Amanuel; Trafton, Jodie A

    2017-02-01

    Concerns about opioid-related adverse events, including overdose, prompted the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to launch an Opioid Safety Initiative and Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution program. To mitigate risks associated with opioid prescribing, a holistic approach that takes into consideration both risk factors (e.g., dose, substance use disorders) and risk mitigation interventions (e.g., urine drug screening, psychosocial treatment) is needed. This article describes the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM), a tool developed in VHA that reflects this holistic approach and facilitates patient identification and monitoring. STORM prioritizes patients for review and intervention according to their modeled risk for overdose/suicide-related events and displays risk factors and risk mitigation interventions obtained from VHA electronic medical record (EMR)-data extracts. Patients' estimated risk is based on a predictive risk model developed using fiscal year 2010 (FY2010: 10/1/2009-9/30/2010) EMR-data extracts and mortality data among 1,135,601 VHA patients prescribed opioid analgesics to predict risk for an overdose/suicide-related event in FY2011 (2.1% experienced an event). Cross-validation was used to validate the model, with receiver operating characteristic curves for the training and test data sets performing well (>.80 area under the curve). The predictive risk model distinguished patients based on risk for overdose/suicide-related adverse events, allowing for identification of high-risk patients and enrichment of target populations of patients with greater safety concerns for proactive monitoring and application of risk mitigation interventions. Results suggest that clinical informatics can leverage EMR-extracted data to identify patients at-risk for overdose/suicide-related events and provide clinicians with actionable information to mitigate risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Molecular reclassification of Crohn's disease: a cautionary note on population stratification.

    PubMed

    Maus, Bärbel; Jung, Camille; Mahachie John, Jestinah M; Hugot, Jean-Pierre; Génin, Emmanuelle; Van Steen, Kristel

    2013-01-01

    Complex human diseases commonly differ in their phenotypic characteristics, e.g., Crohn's disease (CD) patients are heterogeneous with regard to disease location and disease extent. The genetic susceptibility to Crohn's disease is widely acknowledged and has been demonstrated by identification of over 100 CD associated genetic loci. However, relating CD subphenotypes to disease susceptible loci has proven to be a difficult task. In this paper we discuss the use of cluster analysis on genetic markers to identify genetic-based subgroups while taking into account possible confounding by population stratification. We show that it is highly relevant to consider the confounding nature of population stratification in order to avoid that detected clusters are strongly related to population groups instead of disease-specific groups. Therefore, we explain the use of principal components to correct for population stratification while clustering affected individuals into genetic-based subgroups. The principal components are obtained using 30 ancestry informative markers (AIM), and the first two PCs are determined to discriminate between continental origins of the affected individuals. Genotypes on 51 CD associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are used to perform latent class analysis, hierarchical and Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) cluster analysis within a sample of affected individuals with and without the use of principal components to adjust for population stratification. It is seen that without correction for population stratification clusters seem to be influenced by population stratification while with correction clusters are unrelated to continental origin of individuals.

  19. Buried layers: On the origins, rise, and fall of stratification theories.

    PubMed

    Wieser, Martin

    2018-02-01

    This article presents a historical analysis of the origins, rise, and demise of theories of stratification ( Schichtentheorien ). Following their roots in the ancient metaphysical idea of the "great chain of being," Aristotle's scala naturae , the medieval "Jacob's ladder," and Leibniz's concept of the lex continua, I argue that theories of stratification represent the modern heir to the ancient cosmological idea of a harmonious, hierarchical, and unified universe. Theories of stratification reached their heyday during the interwar period within German academia, proliferating over a vast number of disciplines and rising to special prominence within personality psychology, feeding the hope for a unitary image of the world and of human beings, their biological and mental development, their social organization and cultural creations. This article focuses on the role of visuality as a distinct mode of scientific knowledge within theories of stratification as well as the cultural context that provided the fertile ground for their flowering in the Weimar Republic. Finally, the rapid demise of theories of stratification during the 1950s is discussed, and some reasons for their downfall during the second half of the 20th century are explored. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Novel Risk Stratification Score for Predicting Early Distant Brain Failure and Salvage Whole Brain Radiotherapy after Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases

    PubMed Central

    Press, Robert H.; Prabhu, Roshan S.; Nickleach, Dana C.; Liu, Yuan; Shu, Hui-Kuo G.; Kandula, Shravan; Patel, Kirtesh R.; Curran, Walter J.; Crocker, Ian

    2015-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate predictors of early distant brain failure (DBF) and salvage whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) after treatment with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases and create a clinically relevant risk score in order to stratify patients’ risk of these events. Methods We reviewed records of 270 patients with brain metastases treated with SRS between 2003-2012. Pre-treatment patient and tumor characteristics were analyzed by univariate and multivariable analyses. Cumulative incidence (CI) of first DBF and salvage WBRT were calculated. Significant factors were used to create a score for stratifying early (6-month) DBF risk. Results No prior WBRT, total lesion volume <1.3 cm3, primary breast cancer or malignant melanoma histology, and multiple metastases (≥2) were found to be significant predictors for early DBF. Each factor was ascribed one point due to similar hazard ratios. Scores of 0-1, 2, and 3-4 were considered low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively. This correlated with 6-month CI of DBF of 16.6%, 28.8%, and 54.4%, respectively (p<0.001). For patients without prior WBRT, the 6-month CI of salvage WBRT by 6-months was 2%, 17.7%, and 25.7%, respectively (p<0.001). Conclusion Early DBF after SRS requiring salvage WBRT remains a significant clinical problem. Patient stratification for early DBF can better inform the decision for initial treatment strategy for brain metastases. The provided risk score may help predict for early DBF and subsequent salvage WBRT if initial SRS is used. External validation is needed prior to clinical implementation. PMID:26242475

  1. Value of the Definition of Severe Familial Hypercholesterolemia for Stratification of Heterozygous Patients.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Calahorra, Sofia; Sánchez-Hernández, Rosa María; Plana, Núria; Marco-Benedi, Victoria; Pedro-Botet, Juan; Almagro, Fátima; Brea, Angel; Ascaso, Juan Francisco; Lahoz, Carlos; Civeira, Fernando

    2017-03-01

    Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is characterized by high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol with co-dominant transmission and high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), although with high variability among subjects. Currently, CVD stratification tools for heterozygous FH (HeFH) are not available. A definition of severe HeFH has been recently proposed by the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), but it has not been validated. Our study aims to see clinical characteristics and prevalence of CVD in subjects defined as severe HeFH by IAS criteria. Probable or definite HeFH introduced in the Dyslipidemia Registry of Spanish Arteriosclerosis Society were analyzed by the IAS criteria. Univariate and multivariate analysis was used to assess the association of CVD with the IAS criteria. About 1,732 HeFH cases were analyzed. Severe HeFH had higher prevalence of familial history of CVD, personal history of tendon xanthomas, LDL cholesterol, and CVD than nonsevere HeFH. A total of 656 (77.1%) and 441 (50.1%) of men and women, respectively, fulfilled the IAS criteria of severe HeFH. In the univariate analysis, subjects defined as severe HeFH showed odds ratio 3.016 (95% CI 3.136 to 4.257, p <0.001) for CVD. However, when traditional risk factors were included in the multivariate analysis, only the presence of cholesterol >400 mg/dl had a statistically significant association with CVD odds ratio 8.76 (95% CI 3.90 to 19.69, p <0.001). In conclusion, the IAS definition of severe HeFH is not significantly associated with CVD when adjusted for classic risk factors. Risk stratification in HeFH is an important issue, but the proposed criteria do not seem to solve this problem. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Comments: Should Principal Stratification Be Used to Study Mediational Processes?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    VanderWeele, Tyler J.

    2012-01-01

    Principal stratification provides an approach to study the effect of an exposure on an outcome within strata defined by the effect of the exposure on some third, posttreatment, variable (Frangakis & Rubin, 2002). There has been more recent interest in using principal stratification to study the extent to which the effect of an exposure on an…

  3. Combining risk markers improves cardiovascular risk prediction in women.

    PubMed

    Holewijn, Suzanne; den Heijer, Martin; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Stalenhoef, Anton F H; de Graaf, Jacqueline

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular risk stratification could be improved by adding measures of atherosclerosis to current risk scores, especially in intermediate-risk individuals. We prospectively evaluated the additive value of different non-invasive risk markers (both individual and combined) for gender-specific cardiovascular risk stratification on top of traditional risk factors in a middle-aged population-based cohort. Carotid-plaques, IMT (intima-media thickness), ABI (ankle-brachial index), PWV (pulse-wave velocity), AIx (augmentation index), CAP (central augmented pressure) and CSP (central-systolic pressure) were measured in 1367 CVD (cardiovascular disease)-free participants aged 50-70 years old. Cardiovascular events were validated after a mean follow-up of 3.8 years. AUC (area-under-the-curve) and NRI (net reclassification improvement) analyses (total-NRI for all and clinical-NRI for intermediate-risk groups) were used to determine the additive value of individual and combined risk markers. Cardiovascular events occurred in 32 women and 39 men. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors explained 6.2% and 12.5% of the variance in CVD in women and men respectively. AUCs did not substantially increase by adding individual or combined non-invasive risk markers. Individual risk markers only improved reclassification in intermediate-risk women and more than in men; clinical-NRIs ranged between 48.0 and 173.1% in women and 8.9 and 20% in men. Combined non-invasive-risk markers improved reclassification in all women and even more in those at intermediate risk; 'IMT-presence-thickness-of-plaques' showed largest reclassification [total-NRI=33.8%, P=0.012; IDI (integrated-discrimination-improvement)=0.048, P=0.066; clinical-NRI=168.0%]. In men, combined non-invasive risk markers improved reclassification only in those at intermediate risk; 'PWV-AIx-CSP-CAP-IMT' showed the largest reclassification (total-NRI=14.5%, P=0.087; IDI=0.016, P=0.148; clinical-NRI=46.0%). In all women

  4. Hodgkin lymphoma: 2012 update on diagnosis, risk-stratification, and management.

    PubMed

    Ansell, Stephen M

    2012-12-01

    Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is an uncommon B-cell lymphoid malignancy affecting 9,000 new patients annually and representing approximately 11% of all lymphomas in the United States. HL is composed of two distinct disease entities; the more commonly diagnosed classical HL and the rare nodular lymphocyte predominant HL. Nodular sclerosis, mixed cellularity, lymphocyte depletion, and lymphocyte-rich HL are subgroups under the designation of classical HL. An accurate assessment of the stage of disease in patients with HL is critical for the selection of the appropriate therapy. Prognostic models that identify patients at low or high risk for recurrence are used to optimize therapy for patients with limited or advanced stage disease. Initial therapy for HL patients is based on the histology of the disease, the anatomical stage and the presence of poor prognostic features. Patients with early stage disease are treated with combined modality strategies utilizing abbreviated courses of combination chemotherapy followed by involved-field radiation therapy, while those with advanced stage disease receive a longer course of chemotherapy often without radiation therapy. High-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) followed by an autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) is the standard of care for most patients who relapse following initial therapy. For patients who fail HDCT with ASCT, brentuximab vedotin, palliative chemotherapy, non-myeloablative allogeneic transplant or participation in a clinical trial should be considered. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Change and Stability in Educational Stratification.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mare, Robert D.

    1981-01-01

    Using statistical models, discusses educational stratification with respect to socioeconomic origins. Describes the effects of social background on grade progression change across cohorts born during the 20th century and the consequences of these changes. (JW)

  6. Orderedness and Stratificational "and" Nodes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herrick, Earl M.

    It is possible to apply Lamb's stratificational theory and analysis to English graphonomy, but additional notation devices must be used to explain particular graphemes and their characteristics. The author presents cases where Lamb's notation is inadequate. In those cases, he devises new means for performing the analysis. The result of this…

  7. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Stratified Steel Temperature During Holding Period of Ladle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deodhar, Anirudh; Singh, Umesh; Shukla, Rishabh; Gautham, B. P.; Singh, Amarendra K.

    2017-04-01

    Thermal stratification of liquid steel in a ladle during the holding period and the teeming operation has a direct bearing on the superheat available at the caster and hence on the caster set points such as casting speed and cooling rates. The changes in the caster set points are typically carried out based on temperature measurements at the end of tundish outlet. Thermal prediction models provide advance knowledge of the influence of process and design parameters on the steel temperature at various stages. Therefore, they can be used in making accurate decisions about the caster set points in real time. However, this requires both fast and accurate thermal prediction models. In this work, we develop a surrogate model for the prediction of thermal stratification using data extracted from a set of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, pre-determined using design of experiments technique. Regression method is used for training the predictor. The model predicts the stratified temperature profile instantaneously, for a given set of process parameters such as initial steel temperature, refractory heat content, slag thickness, and holding time. More than 96 pct of the predicted values are within an error range of ±5 K (±5 °C), when compared against corresponding CFD results. Considering its accuracy and computational efficiency, the model can be extended for thermal control of casting operations. This work also sets a benchmark for developing similar thermal models for downstream processes such as tundish and caster.

  8. Understanding PSA and its derivatives in prediction of tumor volume: addressing health disparities in prostate cancer risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Chinea, Felix M; Lyapichev, Kirill; Epstein, Jonathan I; Kwon, Deukwoo; Smith, Paul Taylor; Pollack, Alan; Cote, Richard J; Kryvenko, Oleksandr N

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To address health disparities in risk stratification of U.S. Hispanic/Latino men by characterizing influences of prostate weight, body mass index, and race/ethnicity on the correlation of PSA derivatives with Gleason score 6 (Grade Group 1) tumor volume in a diverse cohort. Results Using published PSA density and PSA mass density cutoff values, men with higher body mass indices and prostate weights were less likely to have a tumor volume <0.5 cm3. Variability across race/ethnicity was found in the univariable analysis for all PSA derivatives when predicting for tumor volume. In receiver operator characteristic analysis, area under the curve values for all PSA derivatives varied across race/ethnicity with lower optimal cutoff values for Hispanic/Latino (PSA=2.79, PSA density=0.06, PSA mass=0.37, PSA mass density=0.011) and Non-Hispanic Black (PSA=3.75, PSA density=0.07, PSA mass=0.46, PSA mass density=0.008) compared to Non-Hispanic White men (PSA=4.20, PSA density=0.11 PSA mass=0.53, PSA mass density=0.014). Materials and Methods We retrospectively analyzed 589 patients with low-risk prostate cancer at radical prostatectomy. Pre-operative PSA, patient height, body weight, and prostate weight were used to calculate all PSA derivatives. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each PSA derivative per racial/ethnic group to establish optimal cutoff values predicting for tumor volume ≥0.5 cm3. Conclusions Increasing prostate weight and body mass index negatively influence PSA derivatives for predicting tumor volume. PSA derivatives’ ability to predict tumor volume varies significantly across race/ethnicity. Hispanic/Latino and Non-Hispanic Black men have lower optimal cutoff values for all PSA derivatives, which may impact risk assessment for prostate cancer. PMID:28160549

  9. Understanding PSA and its derivatives in prediction of tumor volume: Addressing health disparities in prostate cancer risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Chinea, Felix M; Lyapichev, Kirill; Epstein, Jonathan I; Kwon, Deukwoo; Smith, Paul Taylor; Pollack, Alan; Cote, Richard J; Kryvenko, Oleksandr N

    2017-03-28

    To address health disparities in risk stratification of U.S. Hispanic/Latino men by characterizing influences of prostate weight, body mass index, and race/ethnicity on the correlation of PSA derivatives with Gleason score 6 (Grade Group 1) tumor volume in a diverse cohort. Using published PSA density and PSA mass density cutoff values, men with higher body mass indices and prostate weights were less likely to have a tumor volume <0.5 cm3. Variability across race/ethnicity was found in the univariable analysis for all PSA derivatives when predicting for tumor volume. In receiver operator characteristic analysis, area under the curve values for all PSA derivatives varied across race/ethnicity with lower optimal cutoff values for Hispanic/Latino (PSA=2.79, PSA density=0.06, PSA mass=0.37, PSA mass density=0.011) and Non-Hispanic Black (PSA=3.75, PSA density=0.07, PSA mass=0.46, PSA mass density=0.008) compared to Non-Hispanic White men (PSA=4.20, PSA density=0.11 PSA mass=0.53, PSA mass density=0.014). We retrospectively analyzed 589 patients with low-risk prostate cancer at radical prostatectomy. Pre-operative PSA, patient height, body weight, and prostate weight were used to calculate all PSA derivatives. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each PSA derivative per racial/ethnic group to establish optimal cutoff values predicting for tumor volume ≥0.5 cm3. Increasing prostate weight and body mass index negatively influence PSA derivatives for predicting tumor volume. PSA derivatives' ability to predict tumor volume varies significantly across race/ethnicity. Hispanic/Latino and Non-Hispanic Black men have lower optimal cutoff values for all PSA derivatives, which may impact risk assessment for prostate cancer.

  10. A clinical study of ischaemic strokes with micro-albuminuria for risk stratification, short-term predictive value and outcome.

    PubMed

    Das, Sukdeb; Yadav, Ujjal; Ghosh, Kartik Chandra; Panchadhyayee, Sujoy; Kundu, Shib Shankar; Ganguly, Prasanta Kumar

    2012-12-01

    Stroke results more than 4.3 million deaths worldwide per annum and 85% of all strokes are ischaemic in nature. Besides numerous modifiable and non-modifiable known risk factors, microalbuminuria is thought to be an important marker of global endothelial dysfunction and associated with cardiovascular disease including stroke. Fifty ischaemic stroke cases and 50 (age, sex matched) control subjects were subjected to study to compare and evaluate risk stratification of micro-albuminuria, its predictive value and outcome on day 1 and day 7 among admitted ischaemic stroke cases.The result was found that micro-albuminuria was present in 66% of ischaemic stroke cases compared to only 8% of control group (p < 0.001). Most validated National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was used for evaluation and calculation of predictive value and outcome of micro-albuminuria positive patient where higher value indicates poor prognosis, and the result was mean NIHSS score 29.12 versus 18.88 between two groups of strokes ie, with and without micro-albuminuria. Out of 50 ischaemic stroke patients 33 (66%) had micro-albuminuria. Among 11 patients who died, 10 (90.9%) had micro-albuminuria and NIHSS score was 33.64 and 25.0 on day 1 and day 7. Among 39 patients who were discharged, 23 patients (58.97%) were MA positive and NIHSS score was much less than death group ie, 23.38 and 16.38 on day 1 and day 7 respectively. So this study reveals micro-albuminuria itself results higher risk for ischaemic stroke compared to control group and it shows good predictive value for early assessment of clinical severity and subsequent fatal outcome. This is also simple, cost effective and affordable.

  11. Paradigm of pretest risk stratification before coronary computed tomography.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Jesper Møller; Ovrehus, Kristian A; Nielsen, Lene H; Jensen, Jesper K; Larsen, Henrik M; Nørgaard, Bjarne L

    2009-01-01

    The optimal method of determining the pretest risk of coronary artery disease as a patient selection tool before coronary multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) is unknown. We investigated the ability of 3 different clinical risk scores to predict the outcome of coronary MDCT. This was a retrospective study of 551 patients consecutively referred for coronary MDCT on a suspicion of coronary artery disease. Diamond-Forrester, Duke, and Morise risk models were used to predict coronary artery stenosis (>50%) as assessed by coronary MDCT. The models were compared by receiver operating characteristic analysis. The distribution of low-, intermediate-, and high-risk persons, respectively, was established and compared for each of the 3 risk models. Overall, all risk prediction models performed equally well. However, the Duke risk model classified the low-risk patients more correctly than did the other models (P < 0.01). In patients without coronary artery calcification (CAC), the predictive value of the Duke risk model was superior to the other risk models (P < 0.05). Currently available risk prediction models seem to perform better in patients without CAC. Between the risk prediction models, there was a significant discrepancy in the distribution of patients at low, intermediate, or high risk (P < 0.01). The 3 risk prediction models perform equally well, although the Duke risk score may have advantages in subsets of patients. The choice of risk prediction model affects the referral pattern to MDCT. Copyright (c) 2009 Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. How-to-Do-It: A Practical Method for Teaching Seed Stratification.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Englert, Karen M.; Shontz, Nancy N.

    1989-01-01

    Described is a laboratory procedure for teaching seed stratification. Materials, methods, results, and applicability of the experiment are explained. Diagrams showing the percent of total germination as a function of stratification time and the germination rate of stratified seeds are included. (RT)

  13. Pulmonary 18F-FDG uptake helps refine current risk stratification in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).

    PubMed

    Win, Thida; Screaton, Nicholas J; Porter, Joanna C; Ganeshan, Balaji; Maher, Toby M; Fraioli, Francesco; Endozo, Raymondo; Shortman, Robert I; Hurrell, Lynn; Holman, Beverley F; Thielemans, Kris; Rashidnasab, Alaleh; Hutton, Brian F; Lukey, Pauline T; Flynn, Aiden; Ell, Peter J; Groves, Ashley M

    2018-05-01

    There is a lack of prognostic biomarkers in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of 18 F-FDG-PET/ CT to predict mortality in IPF. A total of 113 IPF patients (93 males, 20 females, mean age ± SD: 70 ± 9 years) were prospectively recruited for 18 F-FDG-PET/CT. The overall maximum pulmonary uptake of 18 F-FDG (SUV max ), the minimum pulmonary uptake or background lung activity (SUV min ), and target-to-background (SUV max / SUV min ) ratio (TBR) were quantified using routine region-of-interest analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to identify associations of PET measurements with mortality. We also compared PET associations with IPF mortality with the established GAP (gender age and physiology) scoring system. Cox analysis assessed the independence of the significant PET measurement(s) from GAP score. We investigated synergisms between pulmonary 18 F-FDG-PET measurements and GAP score for risk stratification in IPF patients. During a mean follow-up of 29 months, there were 54 deaths. The mean TBR ± SD was 5.6 ± 2.7. Mortality was associated with high pulmonary TBR (p = 0.009), low forced vital capacity (FVC; p = 0.001), low transfer factor (TLCO; p < 0.001), high GAP index (p = 0.003), and high GAP stage (p = 0.003). Stepwise forward-Wald-Cox analysis revealed that the pulmonary TBR was independent of GAP classification (p = 0.010). The median survival in IPF patients with a TBR < 4.9 was 71 months, whilst in those with TBR > 4.9 was 24 months. Combining PET data with GAP data ("PET modified GAP score") refined the ability to predict mortality. A high pulmonary TBR is independently associated with increased risk of mortality in IPF patients.

  14. TP53 Mutational Status Is a Potential Marker for Risk Stratification in Wilms Tumour with Diffuse Anaplasia

    PubMed Central

    Chagtai, Tasnim; Popov, Sergey D.; Sebire, Neil J.; Vujanic, Gordan; Perlman, Elizabeth; Anderson, James R.; Grundy, Paul; Dome, Jeffrey S.; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy

    2014-01-01

    Purpose The presence of diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumours (DAWT) is associated with TP53 mutations and poor outcome. As patients receive intensified treatment, we sought to identify whether TP53 mutational status confers additional prognostic information. Patients and Methods We studied 40 patients with DAWT with anaplasia in the tissue from which DNA was extracted and analysed for TP53 mutations and 17p loss. The majority of cases were profiled by copy number (n = 32) and gene expression (n = 36) arrays. TP53 mutational status was correlated with patient event-free and overall survival, genomic copy number instability and gene expression profiling. Results From the 40 cases, 22 (55%) had TP53 mutations (2 detected only after deep-sequencing), 20 of which also had 17p loss (91%); 18 (45%) cases had no detectable mutation but three had 17p loss. Tumours with TP53 mutations and/or 17p loss (n = 25) had an increased risk of recurrence as a first event (p = 0.03, hazard ratio (HR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26–16.0) and death (p = 0.04, HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.36–31.7) compared to tumours lacking TP53 abnormalities. DAWT carrying TP53 mutations showed increased copy number alterations compared to those with wild-type, suggesting a more unstable genome (p = 0.03). These tumours showed deregulation of genes associated with cell cycle and DNA repair biological processes. Conclusion This study provides evidence that TP53 mutational analysis improves risk stratification in DAWT. This requires validation in an independent cohort before clinical use as a biomarker. PMID:25313908

  15. TP53 mutational status is a potential marker for risk stratification in Wilms tumour with diffuse anaplasia.

    PubMed

    Maschietto, Mariana; Williams, Richard D; Chagtai, Tasnim; Popov, Sergey D; Sebire, Neil J; Vujanic, Gordan; Perlman, Elizabeth; Anderson, James R; Grundy, Paul; Dome, Jeffrey S; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy

    2014-01-01

    The presence of diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumours (DAWT) is associated with TP53 mutations and poor outcome. As patients receive intensified treatment, we sought to identify whether TP53 mutational status confers additional prognostic information. We studied 40 patients with DAWT with anaplasia in the tissue from which DNA was extracted and analysed for TP53 mutations and 17p loss. The majority of cases were profiled by copy number (n = 32) and gene expression (n = 36) arrays. TP53 mutational status was correlated with patient event-free and overall survival, genomic copy number instability and gene expression profiling. From the 40 cases, 22 (55%) had TP53 mutations (2 detected only after deep-sequencing), 20 of which also had 17p loss (91%); 18 (45%) cases had no detectable mutation but three had 17p loss. Tumours with TP53 mutations and/or 17p loss (n = 25) had an increased risk of recurrence as a first event (p = 0.03, hazard ratio (HR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-16.0) and death (p = 0.04, HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.36-31.7) compared to tumours lacking TP53 abnormalities. DAWT carrying TP53 mutations showed increased copy number alterations compared to those with wild-type, suggesting a more unstable genome (p = 0.03). These tumours showed deregulation of genes associated with cell cycle and DNA repair biological processes. This study provides evidence that TP53 mutational analysis improves risk stratification in DAWT. This requires validation in an independent cohort before clinical use as a biomarker.

  16. Risk stratification after paracetamol overdose using mechanistic biomarkers: results from two prospective cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Dear, James W; Clarke, Joanna I; Francis, Ben; Allen, Lowri; Wraight, Jonathan; Shen, Jasmine; Dargan, Paul I; Wood, David; Cooper, Jamie; Thomas, Simon H L; Jorgensen, Andrea L; Pirmohamed, Munir; Park, B Kevin; Antoine, Daniel J

    2018-02-01

    Paracetamol overdose is common but patient stratification is suboptimal. We investigated the usefulness of new biomarkers that have either enhanced liver specificity (microRNA-122 [miR-122]) or provide mechanistic insights (keratin-18 [K18], high mobility group box-1 [HMGB1], and glutamate dehydrogenase [GLDH]). The use of these biomarkers could help stratify patients for their risk of liver injury at hospital presentation. Using data from two prospective cohort studies, we assessed the potential for biomarkers to stratify patients who overdose with paracetamol. We completed two independent prospective studies: a derivation study (MAPP) in eight UK hospitals and a validation study (BIOPAR) in ten UK hospitals. Patients in both cohorts were adults (≥18 years in England, ≥16 years in Scotland), were diagnosed with paracetamol overdose, and gave written informed consent. Patients who needed intravenous acetylcysteine treatment for paracetamol overdose had circulating biomarkers measured at hospital presentation. The primary endpoint was acute liver injury indicating need for continued acetylcysteine treatment beyond the standard course (alanine aminotransferase [ALT] activity >100 U/L). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, category-free net reclassification index (cfNRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI) were applied to assess endpoint prediction. Between June 2, 2010, and May 29, 2014, 1187 patients who required acetylcysteine treatment for paracetamol overdose were recruited (985 in the MAPP cohort; 202 in the BIOPAR cohort). In the derivation and validation cohorts, acute liver injury was predicted at hospital presentation by miR-122 (derivation cohort ROC-area under the curve [AUC] 0·97 [95% CI 0·95-0·98]), HMGB1 (0·95 [0·93-0·98]), and full-length K18 (0·95 [0·92-0·97]). Results were similar in the validation cohort (miR-122 AUC 0·97 [95% CI 0·95-0·99], HMGB1 0·98 [0·96-0·99], and full-length K18 0·93 [0·86-0·99]). A

  17. Fall Risk Assessment in Geriatric-Psychiatric Inpatients to Lower Events (FRAGILE).

    PubMed

    Nanda, Sudip; Dey, Tanujit; Gulstrand, Rudolph E; Cudnik, Daniel; Haller, Harold S

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of this retrospective case-control study were to identify risk factors of falls in geriatric-psychiatric inpatients and develop a screening tool to accurately predict falls. The study sample consisted of 225 geriatric-psychiatric inpatients at a Midwestern referral facility. The sample included 136 inpatients who fell and a random stratified sample of 89 inpatients who did not fall. Data collected included age, gender, activities of daily living, and nursing parameters such as bathing assistance, bed height, use of bed rails, one-on-one observation, fall warning system, Conley Scale fall risk assessment, medical diagnosis, and medications. History of falls, impaired judgment, impaired gait, dizziness, delusions, delirium, chronic use of sedative or antipsychotic agents, and anticholinergic urinary bladder medications significantly increased fall risk. Alzheimer's disease, acute use of sedative or anti-psychotic agents, and depression reduced fall risk. A falls risk tool, Fall Risk Assessment in Geriatric-psychiatric Inpatients to Lower Events (FRAGILE), was developed for assessment and risk stratification with new diagnoses or medications. Copyright 2011, SLACK Incorporated.

  18. The bio-optical properties of CDOM as descriptor of lake stratification.

    PubMed

    Bracchini, Luca; Dattilo, Arduino Massimo; Hull, Vincent; Loiselle, Steven Arthur; Martini, Silvia; Rossi, Claudio; Santinelli, Chiara; Seritti, Alfredo

    2006-11-01

    Multivariate statistical techniques are used to demonstrate the fundamental role of CDOM optical properties in the description of water masses during the summer stratification of a deep lake. PC1 was linked with dissolved species and PC2 with suspended particles. In the first principal component that the role of CDOM bio-optical properties give a better description of the stratification of the Salto Lake with respect to temperature. The proposed multivariate approach can be used for the analysis of different stratified aquatic ecosystems in relation to interaction between bio-optical properties and stratification of the water body.

  19. Thermal stratification potential in rocket engine coolant channels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kacynski, Kenneth J.

    1992-01-01

    The potential for rocket engine coolant channel flow stratification was computationally studied. A conjugate, 3-D, conduction/advection analysis code (SINDA/FLUINT) was used. Core fluid temperatures were predicted to vary by over 360 K across the coolant channel, at the throat section, indicating that the conventional assumption of a fully mixed fluid may be extremely inaccurate. Because of the thermal stratification of the fluid, the walls exposed to the rocket engine exhaust gases will be hotter than an assumption of full mixing would imply. In this analysis, wall temperatures were 160 K hotter in the turbulent mixing case than in the full mixing case. The discrepancy between the full mixing and turbulent mixing analyses increased with increasing heat transfer. Both analysis methods predicted identical channel resistances at the coolant inlet, but in the stratified analysis the thermal resistance was negligible. The implications are significant. Neglect of thermal stratification could lead to underpredictions in nozzle wall temperatures. Even worse, testing at subscale conditions may be inadequate for modeling conditions that would exist in a full scale engine.

  20. High resolution monitoring of episodic stratification events in an enclosed marine system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sullivan, Timothy; Broszeit, Stefanie; O'Sullivan, Keith P. A.; McAllen, Rob; Davenport, John; Regan, Fiona

    2013-05-01

    While hypoxic and anoxic environments have existed throughout geological time, their frequency of occurrence in shallow coastal and estuarine areas appears to be increasing. However, few data are available on the physicochemical conditions at the boundary between anoxic and normoxic layers, including the conditions required for both formation and dissipation of stratification. Advances in autonomous environmental sensing technology have produced robust sensors capable of detailed measurements under inhospitable conditions created in such environments. In this study, an autonomous sensor approach was used to compare water column properties above and below the stratification before during and after dissipation of the stratification. Further, an investigation into the effect of the stratification on sedimentation rates of organic and inorganic matter and current speeds is reported here. Lough Hyne, a seasonally stratified temperate marine lake provided favourable conditions for this study. It was shown that temperatures dropped rapidly above the oxy-thermocline while increasing rapidly below the stratification, leading to a mixing of the complete water column. This was reflected in oxygen measurements below the stratification, which rose from anoxia to normoxic conditions over the same time period. During summer, the thermocline formed a barrier to organic matter sedimentation, reducing it significantly when present, while inorganic matter sedimentation was unaffected by the presence of thermocline. It also caused a reduction in current speeds below the thermocline.

  1. Prospective Validation of ATA and ETA Sonographic Pattern Risk of Thyroid Nodules Selected for FNAC.

    PubMed

    Maino, Fabio; Forleo, Raffaella; Martinelli, Martina; Fralassi, Noemi; Barbato, Filomena; Pilli, Tania; Capezzone, Marco; Brilli, Lucia; Ciuoli, Cristina; Di Cairano, Giovanni; Nigi, Laura; Pacini, Furio; Castagna, Maria Grazia

    2018-06-01

    Recently, the American Thyroid Association (ATA) and the European Thyroid Association (ETA) have proposed that thyroid ultrasound (US) should be used to stratify the risk of malignancy in thyroid nodules and to aid decision-making about whether fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) is indicated. To validate and to compare the ATA and ETA US risk stratification systems of thyroid nodules in a prospective series of thyroid nodules submitted to FNAC. We prospectively evaluated 432 thyroid nodules selected for FNAC from 340 patients. Cytology reports were based on the five categories according to the criteria of the British Thyroid Association. The proportion of Thy2 nodules decreased significantly, whereas the proportion of Thy4/Thy5 nodules significantly increased with increasing US risk class (P < 0.0001). The ability to identify benign and malignant nodules was similar between ATA and ETA systems. According to ATA and ETA US risk stratification systems, 23.7% and 56.0% nodules did not meet the criteria for FNAC, respectively. Considering only categories at lower risk of malignancy, the cumulative malignancy rate in these nodules was 1.2% for ATA and 1.7% for ETA US risk stratification systems. ETA and ATA US risk stratification systems provide effective malignancy risk stratification for thyroid nodules. In clinical practice, using this approach, we should be able to reduce the number of unnecessary FNAC without losing clinically relevant thyroid cancer.

  2. Current indications for transplantation: stratification of severe heart failure and shared decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Vucicevic, Darko; Honoris, Lily; Raia, Federica

    2018-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that results from structural or functional cardiovascular disorders causing a mismatch between demand and supply of oxygenated blood and consecutive failure of the body’s organs. For those patients with stage D HF, advanced therapies, such as mechanical circulatory support (MCS) or heart transplantation (HTx), are potentially life-saving options. The role of risk stratification of patients with stage D HF in a value-based healthcare framework is to predict which subset might benefit from advanced HF (AdHF) therapies, to improve outcomes related to the individual patient including mortality, morbidity and patient experience as well as to optimize health care delivery system outcomes such as cost-effectiveness. Risk stratification and subsequent outcome prediction as well as therapeutic recommendation-making need to be based on the comparative survival benefit rationale. A robust model needs to (I) have the power to discriminate (i.e., to correctly risk stratify patients); (II) calibrate (i.e., to show agreement between the predicted and observed risk); (III) to be applicable to the general population; and (IV) provide good external validation. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) are two of the most widely utilized scores. However, outcomes for patients with HF are highly variable which make clinical predictions challenging. Despite our clinical expertise and current prediction tools, the best short- and long-term survival for the individual patient, particularly the sickest patient, is not easy to identify because among the most severely ill, elderly and frail patients, most preoperative prediction tools have the tendency to be imprecise in estimating risk. They should be used as a guide in a clinical encounter grounded in a culture of shared decision-making, with the expert healthcare professional team as consultants and the patient as an empowered decision-maker in a

  3. Abundance stratification in the atmospheres of blue horizontal-branch stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LeBlanc, F.

    2013-12-01

    Horizontal-branch stars with effective temperatures larger than approximately 11 500 K show abundance anomalies as well as other peculiar observational properties believed to be due to atomic diffusion in their atmosphere. These stars possess low rotational velocities that makes it possible for atomic diffusion to come into play and are therefore of great interest with respect to diffusion theory. Observational anomalies of blue horizontal-branch stars found in globular clusters such as photometric jumps and gaps are reviewed. Recent detections of vertical stratification of elements are also discussed. These results are compared to predictions of atmospheric modeling while including vertical stratification of the elements. The atmospheric structure of these models is calculated self-consistently while taking into account vertical stratification of the elements.

  4. Contrasting Drainage and Stratification in Horizontal Vs Vertical Micellar Foam Films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wojcik, Ewelina; Yilixiati, Subinuer; Zhang, Yiran; Sharma, Vivek

    Understanding and controlling the drainage kinetics of thin films is an important problem that underlies the stability, lifetime and rheology of foams and emulsions. In foam films formed with micellar solutions, the surfactant is present as interfacially-adsorbed layer at both liquid-air interfaces, as well as in bulk as self-assembled supramolecular structures called micelles. Ultrathin micellar films exhibit stratification due to confinement-induced structuring and layering of micelles. Stratification in micellar foam films is manifested as stepwise thinning over time, and it leads to the coexistence of flat domains with discretely different thicknesses. In this contribution we use Interferometry Digital Imaging Optical Microscopy (IDIOM) protocols to visualize and analyze thickness transitions and variations associated with stratification in micellar foam films made with sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS). We contrast the drainage and stratification dynamics in horizontal and vertical foam films, and investigate the role played by gravitational, viscous, interfacial and surface forces.

  5. Prediction of Breast Cancer Risk by Aberrant Methylation in Mammary Duct Lavage

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-07-01

    Assessment of breast epithelial cells obtained by nipple duct lavage (NDL) may have value for breast cancer risk stratification. NDL was performed in 150...contribute to risk stratification. 15. SUBJECT TERMS breast cancer, DNA methylation, Methylation Specific PCR, Nipple Duct Lavage, Risk assessment 16...carcinogenesis. Nipple duct lavage (NDL) is a minimally invasive approach for obtaining breast epithelial cells. Cytological atypia identified in nipple

  6. The arterial baroreflex effectiveness index in risk stratification of chronic heart failure patients who are candidates for cardiac resynchronization therapy.

    PubMed

    Fernandes Serôdio, João; Martins Oliveira, Mário; Matoso Laranjo, Sérgio; Tavares, Cristiano; Silva Cunha, Pedro; Abreu, Ana; Branco, Luísa; Alves, Sandra; Rocha, Isabel; Cruz Ferreira, Rui

    2016-06-01

    Baroreflex function is an independent marker of prognosis in heart failure (HF). However, little is known about its relation to response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). The aim of this study is to assess arterial baroreflex function in HF patients who are candidates for CRT. The study population consisted of 25 patients with indication for CRT, aged 65±10 years, NYHA functional class ≥III in 52%, QRS width 159±15 ms, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 29±5%, left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) 150±48 ml, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) 357±270 pg/ml, and peak oxygen consumption (peak VO2) 18.4±5.0 ml/kg/min. An orthostatic tilt test was performed to assess the baroreflex effectiveness index (BEI) by the sequence method. This group was compared with 15 age-matched healthy individuals. HF patients showed a significantly depressed BEI during tilt (31±12% vs. 49±18%, p=0.001). A lower BEI was associated with higher BNP (p=0.038), lower peak VO2 (p=0.048), and higher LVESV (p=0.031). By applying a cut-off value of 25% for BEI, two clusters of patients were identified: lower risk cluster (BEI >25%) QRS 153 ms, LVESV 129 ml, BNP 146 pg/ml, peak VO2 19.0 ml/kg/min; and higher risk cluster (IEB ≤25%) QRS 167 ms, LVESV 189 ml, BNP 590 pg/ml, peak VO2 16.2 ml/kg/min. Candidates for CRT show depressed arterial baroreflex function. Lower BEI was observed in high-risk HF patients. Baroreflex function correlated closely with other clinical HF parameters. Therefore, BEI may improve risk stratification in HF patients undergoing CRT. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  7. Hodgkin lymphoma: 2016 update on diagnosis, risk-stratification, and management.

    PubMed

    Ansell, Stephen M

    2016-06-01

    Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is an uncommon B-cell lymphoid malignancy affecting 9,050 new patients annually and representing approximately 11.2% of all lymphomas in the United States. HL is composed of two distinct disease entities; the more commonly diagnosed classical HL and the rare nodular lymphocyte predominant HL. Nodular sclerosis, mixed cellularity, lymphocyte depletion, and lymphocyte-rich HL are subgroups under the designation of classical HL. An accurate assessment of the stage of disease in patients with HL is critical for the selection of the appropriate therapy. Prognostic models that identify patients at low or high risk for recurrence, as well as the response to therapy as determined by positron emission tomography (PET) scan, are used to optimize therapy. Initial therapy for HL patients is based on the histology of the disease, the anatomical stage and the presence of poor prognostic features. Patients with early stage disease are typically treated with combined modality strategies utilizing abbreviated courses of combination chemotherapy followed by involved-field radiation therapy, while those with advanced stage disease receive a longer course of chemotherapy often without radiation therapy. Management of relapsed/refractory disease: High-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) followed by an autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) is the standard of care for most patients who relapse following initial therapy. For patients who fail HDCT with ASCT, brentuximab vedotin, PD-1 blockade, nonmyeloablative allogeneic transplant or participation in a clinical trial should be considered. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Hodgkin lymphoma: 2014 update on diagnosis, risk-stratification, and management.

    PubMed

    Ansell, Stephen M

    2014-07-01

    Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is an uncommon B-cell lymphoid malignancy affecting 9,200 new patients annually and representing approximately 11.5% of all lymphomas in the United States. HL is composed of two distinct disease entities; the more commonly diagnosed classical HL and the rare nodular lymphocyte-predominant HL. Nodular sclerosis, mixed cellularity, lymphocyte depletion, and lymphocyte-rich HL are subgroups under the designation of classical HL. An accurate assessment of the stage of disease in patients with HL is critical for the selection of the appropriate therapy. Prognostic models that identify patients at low or high risk for recurrence, as well as the response to therapy as determined by positron emission tomography scan, are used to optimize therapy. Initial therapy for HL patients is based on the histology of the disease, the anatomical stage, and the presence of poor prognostic features. Patients with early stage disease are treated with combined modality strategies using abbreviated courses of combination chemotherapy followed by involved-field radiation therapy, while those with advanced stage disease receive a longer course of chemotherapy often without radiation therapy. Management of relapsed/refractory disease: High-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) followed by an autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) is the standard of care for most patients who relapse following initial therapy. For patients who fail HDCT with ASCT, brentuximab vedotin, palliative chemotherapy, nonmyeloablative allogeneic transplant, or participation in a clinical trial should be considered. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. On Stratification in Changing Higher Education: The "Analysis of Status" Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bloch, Roland; Mitterle, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    This article seeks to shed light on current dynamics of stratification in changing higher education and proposes an analytical perspective to account for these dynamics based on Martin Trow's work on "the analysis of status." In research on higher education, the term "stratification" is generally understood as a metaphor that…

  10. Molecular Reclassification of Crohn’s Disease: A Cautionary Note on Population Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Maus, Bärbel; Jung, Camille; Mahachie John, Jestinah M.; Hugot, Jean-Pierre; Génin, Emmanuelle; Van Steen, Kristel

    2013-01-01

    Complex human diseases commonly differ in their phenotypic characteristics, e.g., Crohn’s disease (CD) patients are heterogeneous with regard to disease location and disease extent. The genetic susceptibility to Crohn’s disease is widely acknowledged and has been demonstrated by identification of over 100 CD associated genetic loci. However, relating CD subphenotypes to disease susceptible loci has proven to be a difficult task. In this paper we discuss the use of cluster analysis on genetic markers to identify genetic-based subgroups while taking into account possible confounding by population stratification. We show that it is highly relevant to consider the confounding nature of population stratification in order to avoid that detected clusters are strongly related to population groups instead of disease-specific groups. Therefore, we explain the use of principal components to correct for population stratification while clustering affected individuals into genetic-based subgroups. The principal components are obtained using 30 ancestry informative markers (AIM), and the first two PCs are determined to discriminate between continental origins of the affected individuals. Genotypes on 51 CD associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are used to perform latent class analysis, hierarchical and Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) cluster analysis within a sample of affected individuals with and without the use of principal components to adjust for population stratification. It is seen that without correction for population stratification clusters seem to be influenced by population stratification while with correction clusters are unrelated to continental origin of individuals. PMID:24147066

  11. SBRT for the Primary Treatment of Localized Prostate Cancer: The Effect of Gleason Score, Dose and Heterogeneity of Intermediate Risk on Outcome Utilizing 2.2014 NCCN Risk Stratification Guidelines.

    PubMed

    Bernetich, Matthew; Oliai, Caspian; Lanciano, Rachelle; Hanlon, Alexandra; Lamond, John; Arrigo, Stephen; Yang, Jun; Good, Michael; Feng, Jing; Brown, Royce; Garber, Bruce; Mooreville, Michael; Brady, Luther W

    2014-01-01

    To report an update of our previous experience using stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for the primary treatment of prostate cancer, risk stratified by the updated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) version 2.2014, reporting efficacy and toxicity in a community hospital setting. From 2007 to 2012, 142 localized prostate cancer patients were treated with SBRT using CyberKnife. NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014 risk groups analyzed included very low (20%), low (23%), intermediate (35%), and high (22%) risk. To further explore group heterogeneity and to comply with new guidelines, we separated our prior intermediate risk group into favorable intermediate and unfavorable intermediate groups depending on how many intermediate risk factors were present (one vs. > one). The unfavorable intermediate group was further analyzed in combination with the high risk group as per NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014. Various dose levels were used over the years of treatment, and have been categorized into low dose (35 Gy, n = 5 or 36.25 Gy, n = 107) and high dose (37.5 Gy, n = 30). All treatments were delivered in five fractions. Toxicity was assessed using radiation therapy oncology group criteria. Five-year actuarial freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF) was 100, 91.7, 95.2, 90.0, and 86.7% for very low, low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively. A significant difference in 5 year FFBF was noted for patients with Gleason score (GS) ≥8 vs. 7 vs. 5/6 (p = 0.03) and low vs. high dose (p = 0.05). T-stage, pretreatment PSA, age, risk stratification group, and use of ADT did not affect 5-year FFBF. Multivariate analysis revealed GS and dose to be the most predictive factors for 5-year FFBF. Our experience with SBRT for the primary treatment of localized prostate cancer demonstrates favorable efficacy and toxicity comparable to the results reported for IMRT in literature. GS remains the single most important pretreatment

  12. Curriculum Placement and Educational Stratification in France.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hout, Michael; Garnier, Maurice A.

    1979-01-01

    Maintains that curriculum differentiation in France is the keystone of educational, and, consequently, social stratification. Factors which influence curriculum differentiation include father's occupation, academic performance, parents' expectations, and teachers' expectations. (DB)

  13. Propagation of 3D internal gravity wave beams in a slowly varying stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Boyu; Akylas, T. R.

    2017-11-01

    The time-mean flows induced by internal gravity wave beams (IGWB) with 3D variations have been shown to have dramatic implications for long-term IGWB dynamics. While uniform stratifications are convenient both theoretically and in the laboratory, stratifications in the ocean can vary by more than an order of magnitude over the ocean depth. Here, in view of this fact, we study the propagation of a 3D IGWB in a slowly varying stratification. We assume that the stratification varies slowly relative to the local variations in the wave profile. In the 2D case, the IGWB bends in response to the changing stratification, but nonlinear effects are minor even in the finite amplitude regime. For a 3D IGWB, in addition to bending, we find that nonlinearity results in the transfer of energy from waves to a large-scale time-mean flow associated with the mean potential vorticity, similar to IGWB behavior in a uniform stratification. In a weakly nonlinear setting, we derive coupled evolution equations that govern this process. We also use these equations to determine the stability properties of 2D IGWB to 3D perturbations. These findings indicate that 3D effects may be relevant and possibly fundamental to IGWB dynamics in nature. Supported by NSF Grant DMS-1512925.

  14. An Improved Model of Cryogenic Propellant Stratification in a Rotating, Reduced Gravity Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oliveira, Justin; Kirk, Daniel R.; Schallhorn, Paul A.; Piquero, Jorge L.; Campbell, Mike; Chase, Sukhdeep

    2007-01-01

    This paper builds on a series of analytical literature models used to predict thermal stratification within rocket propellant tanks. The primary contribution to the literature is to add the effect of tank rotation and to demonstrate the influence of rotation on stratification times and temperatures. This work also looks levels of thermal stratification for generic propellant tanks (cylindrical shapes) over a parametric range of upper-stage coast times, heating levels, rotation rates, and gravity levels.

  15. [Exercise stress test and dobutamine stress echocardiography for the prognostic stratification after uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction].

    PubMed

    Vitiello, Nicola; Cirillo, Raffaele; Granato, Luigi; Coppola, Vincenzo; di Palma, Francesco

    2007-05-01

    Exercise stress test and dobutamine stress echocardiography are usually performed early after an uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction in the prognostic stratification of patients to define the optimal diagnostic and therapeutic procedure. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the association of an imaging test could increase exercise test capability to identify patients with residual ischemia and patients at high risk of events in the follow-up. Four hundred and forty-two consecutive patients underwent exercise stress testing and dobutamine stress echocardiography before discharge and subsequently coronary angiography within 30 days. In case of submaximal negative result at the exercise test, this was repeated 20 days after discharge. The follow-up lasted 26.8 +/- 9 months. The endpoints were death, reinfarction, and unstable angina requiring hospitalization or revascularization intervention. Both tests and their association showed a higher sensitivity in males; in females dobutamine stress echocardiography had a higher specificity. In females, the addition of dobutamine stress echocardiography increased either the negative or the positive prognostic values of exercise stress test by 31% and 5.6%, respectively. In males, the negative prognostic value increased by 15.5%, whereas the positive prognostic value decreased by 12%. A low exercise capability (<6 METs) showed an event predictive value independent of test results and any other variables. The event-free survival curves correlated with exercise capability differed shortly after the first months both in males and females. These results suggest different stratification procedures with regard to gender: in males, the exercise stress test might be sufficient at discharge, to be repeated 20 days later, if submaximal negative. In females, it seems to be useful to associate an imaging test at discharge. In any case, the exercise stress test remains the main step in the stratification procedure also for its

  16. Glacial/interglacial changes in subarctic north pacific stratification.

    PubMed

    Jaccard, S L; Haug, G H; Sigman, D M; Pedersen, T F; Thierstein, H R; Röhl, U

    2005-05-13

    Since the first evidence of low algal productivity during ice ages in the Antarctic Zone of the Southern Ocean was discovered, there has been debate as to whether it was associated with increased polar ocean stratification or with sea-ice cover, shortening the productive season. The sediment concentration of biogenic barium at Ocean Drilling Program site 882 indicates low algal productivity during ice ages in the Subarctic North Pacific as well. Site 882 is located southeast of the summer sea-ice extent even during glacial maxima, ruling out sea-ice-driven light limitation and supporting stratification as the explanation, with implications for the glacial cycles of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.

  17. Role of risk stratification by SPECT, PET, and hybrid imaging in guiding management of stable patients with ischaemic heart disease: expert panel of the EANM cardiovascular committee and EACVI.

    PubMed

    Acampa, Wanda; Gaemperli, Oliver; Gimelli, Alessia; Knaapen, Paul; Schindler, Thomas H; Verberne, Hein J; Zellweger, Michael J

    2015-12-01

    Risk stratification has become increasingly important in the management of patients with suspected or known ischaemic heart disease (IHD). Recent guidelines recommend that these patients have their care driven by risk assessment. The purpose of this position statement is to summarize current evidence on the value of cardiac single-photon emission computed tomography, positron emission tomography, and hybrid imaging in risk stratifying asymptomatic or symptomatic patients with suspected IHD, patients with stable disease, patients after coronary revascularization, heart failure patients, and specific patient population. In addition, this position statement evaluates the impact of imaging results on clinical decision-making and thereby its role in patient management. The document represents the opinion of the European Association of Nuclear Medicine (EANM) Cardiovascular Committee and of the European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI) and intends to stimulate future research in this field. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Stratification of a closed region containing two buoyancy sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Andrew; Linden, Paul

    2005-11-01

    Many closed systems such as lakes, ocean basins, rooms etc. have inputs of buoyancy at different levels. We address the question of how the resulting stratification depends on the location of these sources. For example a lake is heated and cooled at the surface, while for a room cool air may be applied at the ceiling but the heat source may be a person standing on the floor. We present an experimental study of convection in a finite box in which we systematically vary the vertical location of two well-separated, constant buoyancy sources. We specifically consider the case of a dense source and a light source so that there is no net buoyancy flux into the tank. We study the development of the large-time stratification in the tank, which falls between one of two limits. When the location of the dense source is significantly higher than the light source, the fluid is well mixed and the system remains largely unstratified. When the location of the light source is significantly higher than the dense source, a two- layer stratification develops. We find that the circulation pattern is dominated by counter-flowing shear layers (Wong, Griffiths & Hughes, 2001), whose number and strength are strongly influenced by the buoyancy source locations. The shear layers are the primary means of communication between the plumes and thus play a large role in the resulting stratification. We support our findings with a simple numerical model.

  19. Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Thermal Stratification and Vertical Mixing in a Shallow Fresh Water Lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Yichen; Wang, Yongwei; Zhang, Zhen; Wang, Wei; Ren, Xia; Gao, Yaqi; Liu, Shoudong; Lee, Xuhui

    2018-04-01

    Among several influential factors, the geographical position and depth of a lake determine its thermal structure. In temperate zones, shallow lakes show significant differences in thermal stratification compared to deep lakes. Here, the variation in thermal stratification in Lake Taihu, a shallow fresh water lake, is studied systematically. Lake Taihu is a warm polymictic lake whose thermal stratification varies in short cycles of one day to a few days. The thermal stratification in Lake Taihu has shallow depths in the upper region and a large amplitude in the temperature gradient, the maximum of which exceeds 5°C m-1. The water temperature in the entire layer changes in a relatively consistent manner. Therefore, compared to a deep lake at similar latitude, the thermal stratification in Lake Taihu exhibits small seasonal differences, but the wide variation in the short term becomes important. Shallow polymictic lakes share the characteristic of diurnal mixing. Prominent differences on the duration and frequency of long-lasting thermal stratification are found in these lakes, which may result from the differences of local climate, lake depth, and fetch. A prominent response of thermal stratification to weather conditions is found, being controlled by the stratifying effect of solar radiation and the mixing effect of wind disturbance. Other than the diurnal stratification and convection, the representative responses of thermal stratification to these two factors with contrary effects are also discussed. When solar radiation increases, stronger wind is required to prevent the lake from becoming stratified. A daily average wind speed greater than 6 m s-1 can maintain the mixed state in Lake Taihu. Moreover, wind-induced convection is detected during thermal stratification. Due to lack of solar radiation, convection occurs more easily in nighttime than in daytime. Convection occurs frequently in fall and winter, whereas long-lasting and stable stratification causes

  20. Glacial ocean circulation and stratification explained by reduced atmospheric temperature.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Malte F

    2017-01-03

    Earth's climate has undergone dramatic shifts between glacial and interglacial time periods, with high-latitude temperature changes on the order of 5-10 °C. These climatic shifts have been associated with major rearrangements in the deep ocean circulation and stratification, which have likely played an important role in the observed atmospheric carbon dioxide swings by affecting the partitioning of carbon between the atmosphere and the ocean. The mechanisms by which the deep ocean circulation changed, however, are still unclear and represent a major challenge to our understanding of glacial climates. This study shows that various inferred changes in the deep ocean circulation and stratification between glacial and interglacial climates can be interpreted as a direct consequence of atmospheric temperature differences. Colder atmospheric temperatures lead to increased sea ice cover and formation rate around Antarctica. The associated enhanced brine rejection leads to a strongly increased deep ocean stratification, consistent with high abyssal salinities inferred for the last glacial maximum. The increased stratification goes together with a weakening and shoaling of the interhemispheric overturning circulation, again consistent with proxy evidence for the last glacial. The shallower interhemispheric overturning circulation makes room for slowly moving water of Antarctic origin, which explains the observed middepth radiocarbon age maximum and may play an important role in ocean carbon storage.

  1. Marginal Mean Weighting through Stratification: Adjustment for Selection Bias in Multilevel Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hong, Guanglei

    2010-01-01

    Defining causal effects as comparisons between marginal population means, this article introduces marginal mean weighting through stratification (MMW-S) to adjust for selection bias in multilevel educational data. The article formally shows the inherent connections among the MMW-S method, propensity score stratification, and…

  2. Identifying Unique Versus Shared Pre- and Perinatal Risk Factors for ASD and ADHD Using a Simplex-Multiplex Stratification.

    PubMed

    Oerlemans, Anoek M; Burmanje, Marlot J; Franke, Barbara; Buitelaar, Jan K; Hartman, Catharina A; Rommelse, Nanda N J

    2016-07-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) frequently co-occur. Besides shared genetic factors, pre- and perinatal risk factors (PPFs) may determine if ASD, ADHD, or the combination of both disorders becomes manifest. This study aimed to test shared and unique involvement of PPFs for ASD and ADHD, using an approach that stratifies the sample into affected/unaffected offspring and single-incidence (SPX) versus multi-incidence (MPX) families. Pre- perinatal data based on retrospective parent-report were collected in 288 children (71 % males) from 31 SPX and 59 MPX ASD families, 476 children (65 % males) from 31 SPX and 171 MPX ADHD families, and 408 control children (42 % males). Except for large family size and more firstborns amongst affected offspring, no shared PFFs were identified for ASD and ADHD. PPFs predominantly related to ASD (maternal infections and suboptimal condition at birth) were more often reported in affected than unaffected siblings. PPFs associated with ADHD (low parental age, maternal diseases, smoking and stress) were shared between affected and unaffected siblings. Firstborn-ship was more frequent in SPX than MPX ASD probands. Our results suggest that the co-morbidity of ASD and ADHD is not likely explained by shared PPFs. Instead, PPFs might play a crucial role in the developmental pathways leading up to either disorder. PPFs in ADHD appear to index an increased shared risk, whereas in ASD PPFs possibly have a more determining role in the disorder. SPX-MPX stratification detected possible etiological differences in ASD families, but provided no deeper insight in the role of PPFs in ADHD.

  3. Hodgkin lymphoma: 2018 update on diagnosis, risk-stratification, and management.

    PubMed

    Ansell, Stephen M

    2018-05-01

    Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is an uncommon B-cell lymphoid malignancy affecting 8500 new patients annually and representing approximately 10.2% of all lymphomas in the United States. HL is composed of two distinct disease entities: classical HL and nodular lymphocyte predominant HL. Nodular sclerosis, mixed cellularity, lymphocyte depletion, and lymphocyte-rich HL are subgroups of classical HL. An accurate assessment of the stage of disease in patients with HL is critical for the selection of the appropriate therapy. Prognostic models that identify patients at low or high risk for recurrence, as well as the response to therapy as determined by positron emission tomography scan, are used to optimize therapy. Initial therapy for HL patients is based on the histology of the disease, the anatomical stage and the presence of poor prognostic features. Patients with early stage disease are typically treated with combined modality strategies utilizing abbreviated courses of combination chemotherapy followed by involved-field radiation therapy, while those with advanced stage disease receive a longer course of chemotherapy often without radiation therapy. Newer agents including brentuximab vedotin are now being incorporated into frontline therapy and these new combinations are becoming a standard of care. High-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) followed by an autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) is the standard of care for most patients who relapse following initial therapy. For patients who fail HDCT with ASCT, brentuximab vedotin, PD-1 blockade, nonmyeloablative allogeneic transplant or participation in a clinical trial should be considered. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Risk Stratification by the ACC/AHA Lipid Guidelines, ATP III Guidelines, Coronary Calcium Scoring, and C-Reactive Protein, and a Global Treat-All Strategy: A Comparative--Effectiveness Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Galper, Benjamin Z.; Wang, Y. Claire; Einstein, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Several approaches have been proposed for risk-stratification and primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD), but their comparative and cost-effectiveness is unknown. Methods We constructed a state-transition microsimulation model to compare multiple approaches to the primary prevention of CHD in a simulated cohort of men aged 45–75 and women 55–75. Risk-stratification strategies included the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines on the treatment of blood cholesterol, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines, and approaches based on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and C-reactive protein (CRP). Additionally we assessed a treat-all strategy in which all individuals were prescribed either moderate-dose or high-dose statins and all males received low-dose aspirin. Outcome measures included CHD events, costs, medication-related side effects, radiation-attributable cancers, and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) over a 30-year timeframe. Results Treat-all with high-dose statins dominated all other strategies for both men and women, gaining 15.7 million QALYs, preventing 7.3 million myocardial infarctions, and saving over $238 billion, compared to the status quo, far outweighing its associated adverse events including bleeding, hepatitis, myopathy, and new-onset diabetes. ACC/AHA guidelines were more cost-effective than ATP III guidelines for both men and women despite placing 8.7 million more people on statins. For women at low CHD risk, treat-all with high-dose statins was more likely to cause a statin-related adverse event than to prevent a CHD event. Conclusions Despite leading to a greater proportion of the population placed on statin therapy, the ACC/AHA guidelines are more cost-effective than ATP III. Even so, at generic prices, treating all men and women with statins and all men with low-dose aspirin appears to be more cost-effective than all risk-stratification approaches for the

  5. Rainfall as a trigger for stratification and winter phytoplankton growth in temperate shelf seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jardine, Jenny; Palmer, Matthew; Mahaffey, Claire; Holt, Jason; Mellor, Adam; Wakelin, Sarah

    2017-04-01

    We present new data from ocean gliders to investigate physical controls on stratification and phytoplankton dynamics, collected in the Celtic Sea between November 2014 and August 2015 as part of the UK Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry programme. This presentation focuses on the winter period (Jan-March) when the diurnal heating cycle results in regular but weak near surface stratification followed by night-time convection. Despite low light conditions, this daily cycle often promotes a daytime increase in observed chlorophyll fluorescence, indicative of phytoplankton growth. This daily cycle is occasionally interrupted when buoyancy inputs are sufficient to outcompete night-time convection and result in short-term periods of sustained winter stratification, typically lasting 2-3 days. Sustained stratification often coincides with periods of heavy rainfall, suggesting freshwater input from precipitation may play a role on these events by producing a subtle yet significant freshening of the surface layer of the order of 0.005 PSU. Comparing rainfall estimates with observed salinity changes confirms rainfall to often be the initiator of these winter stratification periods. As winter winds subside and solar heating increases towards spring, the water column becomes more susceptible to periods of halo-stratification, such that heavy rainfall during the winter-spring transition is likely to promote sustained stratification. The timing and extent of a heavy rainfall event in March 2015 does suggest it may be the critical trigger for shelf-wide stratification that eventually instigates the spring bloom. We propose that the timing of these downpours relative to the daily heating cycle can be a triggering mechanism for both short term and seasonal stratification in shelf seas, and so play a critical role in winter and early spring phytoplankton growth and the shelf sea carbon cycle. We further test the importance of this process using historical data, and results from the NEMO-AMM7

  6. A Personalized Risk Stratification Platform for Population Lifetime Healthcare.

    PubMed

    Daowd, Ali; Abidi, Samina Raza; Abusharekh, Ashraf; Abidi, Syed Sibte Raza

    2018-01-01

    Chronic diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide. It is well understood that if modifiable risk factors are targeted, most chronic diseases can be prevented. Lifetime health is an emerging health paradigm that aims to assist individuals to achieve desired health targets, and avoid harmful lifecycle choices to mitigate the risk of chronic diseases. Early risk identification is central to lifetime health. In this paper, we present a digital health-based platform (PRISM) that leverages artificial intelligence, data visualization and mobile health technologies to empower citizens to self-assess, self-monitor and self-manage their overall risk of major chronic diseases and pursue personalized chronic disease prevention programs. PRISM offers risk assessment tools for 5 chronic conditions, 2 psychiatric disorders and 8 different cancers.

  7. Using multivariate generalizability theory to assess the effect of content stratification on the reliability of a performance assessment.

    PubMed

    Keller, Lisa A; Clauser, Brian E; Swanson, David B

    2010-12-01

    In recent years, demand for performance assessments has continued to grow. However, performance assessments are notorious for lower reliability, and in particular, low reliability resulting from task specificity. Since reliability analyses typically treat the performance tasks as randomly sampled from an infinite universe of tasks, these estimates of reliability may not be accurate. For tests built according to a table of specifications, tasks are randomly sampled from different strata (content domains, skill areas, etc.). If these strata remain fixed in the test construction process, ignoring this stratification in the reliability analysis results in an underestimate of "parallel forms" reliability, and an overestimate of the person-by-task component. This research explores the effect of representing and misrepresenting the stratification appropriately in estimation of reliability and the standard error of measurement. Both multivariate and univariate generalizability studies are reported. Results indicate that the proper specification of the analytic design is essential in yielding the proper information both about the generalizability of the assessment and the standard error of measurement. Further, illustrative D studies present the effect under a variety of situations and test designs. Additional benefits of multivariate generalizability theory in test design and evaluation are also discussed.

  8. A Clinical Framework to Facilitate Risk Stratification When Considering an Active Surveillance Alternative to Immediate Biopsy and Surgery in Papillary Microcarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Brito, Juan P; Ito, Yasuhiro; Miyauchi, Akira; Tuttle, R Michael

    2016-01-01

    The 2015 American Thyroid Association thyroid cancer management guidelines endorse an active surveillance management approach as an alternative to immediate biopsy and surgery in subcentimeter thyroid nodules with highly suspicious ultrasonographic characteristics and in cytologically confirmed very low risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). However, the guidelines provide no specific recommendations with regard to the optimal selection of patients for an active surveillance management approach. This article describes a risk-stratified clinical decision-making framework that was developed by the thyroid cancer disease management team at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center as the lessons learned from Kuma Hospital in Japan were applied to a cohort of patients with probable or proven papillary microcarcinoma (PMC) who were being evaluated for an active surveillance management approach in the United States. A risk-stratified approach to the evaluation of patients with probable or proven PMC being considered for an active surveillance management approach requires an evaluation of three interrelated but distinct domains: (i) tumor/neck ultrasound characteristics (e.g., size of the primary tumor, the location of the tumor within the thyroid gland); (ii) patient characteristics (e.g., age, comorbidities, willingness to accept observation); and (iii) medical team characteristics (e.g., availability and experience of the multidisciplinary team). Based on an analysis of the critical factors within each of these domains, patients with probable or proven PTC can then be classified as ideal, appropriate, or inappropriate candidates for active surveillance. Risk stratification utilizing the proposed decision-making framework will improve the ability of clinicians to recognize individual patients with proven or probable PMC who are most likely to benefit from an active surveillance management option while at the same time identifying patients with proven or probable PMC that

  9. External Validity of a Risk Stratification Score Predicting Early Distant Brain Failure and Salvage Whole Brain Radiation Therapy After Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases.

    PubMed

    Press, Robert H; Boselli, Danielle M; Symanowski, James T; Lankford, Scott P; McCammon, Robert J; Moeller, Benjamin J; Heinzerling, John H; Fasola, Carolina E; Burri, Stuart H; Patel, Kirtesh R; Asher, Anthony L; Sumrall, Ashley L; Curran, Walter J; Shu, Hui-Kuo G; Crocker, Ian R; Prabhu, Roshan S

    2017-07-01

    A scoring system using pretreatment factors was recently published for predicting the risk of early (≤6 months) distant brain failure (DBF) and salvage whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone. Four risk factors were identified: (1) lack of prior WBRT; (2) melanoma or breast histologic features; (3) multiple brain metastases; and (4) total volume of brain metastases <1.3 cm 3 , with each factor assigned 1 point. The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of this scoring system and its appropriateness for clinical use in an independent external patient population. We reviewed the records of 247 patients with 388 brain metastases treated with SRS between 2010 at 2013 at Levine Cancer Institute. The Press (Emory) risk score was calculated and applied to the validation cohort population, and subsequent risk groups were analyzed using cumulative incidence. The low-risk (LR) group had a significantly lower risk of early DBF than did the high-risk (HR) group (22.6% vs 44%, P=.004), but there was no difference between the HR and intermediate-risk (IR) groups (41.2% vs 44%, P=.79). Total lesion volume <1.3 cm 3  (P=.004), malignant melanoma (P=.007), and multiple metastases (P<.001) were validated as predictors for early DBF. Prior WBRT and breast cancer histologic features did not retain prognostic significance. Risk stratification for risk of early salvage WBRT were similar, with a trend toward an increased risk for HR compared with LR (P=.09) but no difference between IR and HR (P=.53). The 3-level Emory risk score was shown to not be externally valid, but the model was able to stratify between 2 levels (LR and not-LR [combined IR and HR]) for early (≤6 months) DBF. These results reinforce the importance of validating predictive models in independent cohorts. Further refinement of this scoring system with molecular information and in additional contemporary patient populations is warranted. Copyright © 2017

  10. Investigation of Stable Atmospheric Stratification Effect on the Dynamics of Descending Vortex Pairs

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1979-02-01

    The physics of vortex flows in stratified fluids is studied with the objective of determining the influence of stable stratification on the descent of aircraft vortex pairs. Vortex rings descending into linear and discontinuous density stratification...

  11. Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Bleeker, Jonathan S.; Hogan, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera. PMID:22084665

  12. Representing Reservoir Stratification in Land Surface and Earth System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yigzaw, W.; Li, H. Y.; Leung, L. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Voisin, N.; Payn, R. A.; Demissie, Y.

    2017-12-01

    A one-dimensional reservoir stratification modeling has been developed as part of Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), which is the river transport model used in the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). Reservoirs play an important role in modulating the dynamic water, energy and biogeochemical cycles in the riverine system through nutrient sequestration and stratification. However, most earth system models include lake models that assume a simplified geometry featuring a constant depth and a constant surface area. As reservoir geometry has important effects on thermal stratification, we developed a new algorithm for deriving generic, stratified area-elevation-storage relationships that are applicable at regional and global scales using data from Global Reservoir and Dam database (GRanD). This new reservoir geometry dataset is then used to support the development of a reservoir stratification module within MOSART. The mixing of layers (energy and mass) in the reservoir is driven by eddy diffusion, vertical advection, and reservoir inflow and outflow. Upstream inflow into a reservoir is treated as an additional source/sink of energy, while downstream outflow represented a sink. Hourly atmospheric forcing from North American Land Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase II and simulated daily runoff by ACME land component are used as inputs for the model over the contiguous United States for simulations between 2001-2010. The model is validated using selected observed temperature profile data in a number of reservoirs that are subject to various levels of regulation. The reservoir stratification module completes the representation of riverine mass and heat transfer in earth system models, which is a major step towards quantitative understanding of human influences on the terrestrial hydrological, ecological and biogeochemical cycles.

  13. Stratification during evaporative assembly of multicomponent nanoparticle films

    DOE PAGES

    Liu, Xiao; Liu, Weiping; Carr, Amanda J.; ...

    2018-01-03

    Multicomponent coatings with layers comprising different functionalities are of interest for a variety of applications, including electronic devices, energy storage, and biomaterials. Rather than creating such a film using multiple deposition steps, we explore a single-step method to create such films by varying the particle Peclet numbers, Pe. Our hypothesis, based on recent theoretical descriptions of the stratification process, is that by varying particle size and evaporation rate such that Pe of large and small particles are above and below unity, we can create stratified films of polymeric and inorganic particles. In this paper, we present AFM on the surfacemore » composition of films comprising poly(styrene) nanoparticles (diameter 25–90 nm) and silica nanoparticles (diameter 8–14 nm). Previous studies on films containing both inorganic and polymeric particles correspond to large Pe values (e.g., 120–460), while we utilize Pe ~ 0.3–4, enabling us to test theories that have been developed for different regimes of Pe. We demonstrate evidence of stratification and effect of the Pe ratio, although our results agree only qualitatively with theory. Finally, our results also provide validation of recent theoretical descriptions of the film drying process that predict different regimes for large-on-top and small-on-top stratification.« less

  14. Stratification during evaporative assembly of multicomponent nanoparticle films

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Liu, Xiao; Liu, Weiping; Carr, Amanda J.

    Multicomponent coatings with layers comprising different functionalities are of interest for a variety of applications, including electronic devices, energy storage, and biomaterials. Rather than creating such a film using multiple deposition steps, we explore a single-step method to create such films by varying the particle Peclet numbers, Pe. Our hypothesis, based on recent theoretical descriptions of the stratification process, is that by varying particle size and evaporation rate such that Pe of large and small particles are above and below unity, we can create stratified films of polymeric and inorganic particles. In this paper, we present AFM on the surfacemore » composition of films comprising poly(styrene) nanoparticles (diameter 25–90 nm) and silica nanoparticles (diameter 8–14 nm). Previous studies on films containing both inorganic and polymeric particles correspond to large Pe values (e.g., 120–460), while we utilize Pe ~ 0.3–4, enabling us to test theories that have been developed for different regimes of Pe. We demonstrate evidence of stratification and effect of the Pe ratio, although our results agree only qualitatively with theory. Finally, our results also provide validation of recent theoretical descriptions of the film drying process that predict different regimes for large-on-top and small-on-top stratification.« less

  15. Factors Influencing the Clinical Stratification of Suitability to Drive after Stroke: A Qualitative Study.

    PubMed

    Stapleton, Tadhg; Connolly, Deirdre; O'Neill, Desmond

    2015-01-01

    While a clinical pre-selection screening process for a stroke patient's suitability for driving has been acknowledged, little is known about the factors or processes influencing this screening typically conducted by clinicians practicing at a generalist level. This study explored this clinical stratification process through the use of semi-structured interviews with senior occupational therapists (n = 17) and stroke physicians (n = 7) using qualitative description methodology. The findings revealed a trichotomy stratification of stroke patients for driving in the clinical setting; those who are fit to drive, unfit to drive, and a "maybe" group who need more detailed assessment and observation. Factors that had a major influence on this clinical-based stratification of driving suitability were client's levels of awareness, insight, and impulsivity. A period of prolonged contact with the client was preferential to guide the stratification decision in order for clinicians to build a comprehensive picture of the person. A mix of assessment approaches including standardized assessment but with increased emphasis on naturalistic observation of functional performance underpinned the clinical stratification process. This study uncovers some of the factors and processes influencing the early clinical-based stratification of driving suitability after stroke, and highlights the contribution of the generalist practitioner in the assessment of fitness to drive continuum.

  16. Glacial ocean circulation and stratification explained by reduced atmospheric temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jansen, Malte F.

    2017-01-01

    Earth’s climate has undergone dramatic shifts between glacial and interglacial time periods, with high-latitude temperature changes on the order of 5-10 °C. These climatic shifts have been associated with major rearrangements in the deep ocean circulation and stratification, which have likely played an important role in the observed atmospheric carbon dioxide swings by affecting the partitioning of carbon between the atmosphere and the ocean. The mechanisms by which the deep ocean circulation changed, however, are still unclear and represent a major challenge to our understanding of glacial climates. This study shows that various inferred changes in the deep ocean circulation and stratification between glacial and interglacial climates can be interpreted as a direct consequence of atmospheric temperature differences. Colder atmospheric temperatures lead to increased sea ice cover and formation rate around Antarctica. The associated enhanced brine rejection leads to a strongly increased deep ocean stratification, consistent with high abyssal salinities inferred for the last glacial maximum. The increased stratification goes together with a weakening and shoaling of the interhemispheric overturning circulation, again consistent with proxy evidence for the last glacial. The shallower interhemispheric overturning circulation makes room for slowly moving water of Antarctic origin, which explains the observed middepth radiocarbon age maximum and may play an important role in ocean carbon storage.

  17. Glacial ocean circulation and stratification explained by reduced atmospheric temperature

    PubMed Central

    Jansen, Malte F.

    2017-01-01

    Earth’s climate has undergone dramatic shifts between glacial and interglacial time periods, with high-latitude temperature changes on the order of 5–10 °C. These climatic shifts have been associated with major rearrangements in the deep ocean circulation and stratification, which have likely played an important role in the observed atmospheric carbon dioxide swings by affecting the partitioning of carbon between the atmosphere and the ocean. The mechanisms by which the deep ocean circulation changed, however, are still unclear and represent a major challenge to our understanding of glacial climates. This study shows that various inferred changes in the deep ocean circulation and stratification between glacial and interglacial climates can be interpreted as a direct consequence of atmospheric temperature differences. Colder atmospheric temperatures lead to increased sea ice cover and formation rate around Antarctica. The associated enhanced brine rejection leads to a strongly increased deep ocean stratification, consistent with high abyssal salinities inferred for the last glacial maximum. The increased stratification goes together with a weakening and shoaling of the interhemispheric overturning circulation, again consistent with proxy evidence for the last glacial. The shallower interhemispheric overturning circulation makes room for slowly moving water of Antarctic origin, which explains the observed middepth radiocarbon age maximum and may play an important role in ocean carbon storage. PMID:27994158

  18. Are Strong Zonal Winds in Giant Planets Caused by Density-Stratification?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verhoeven, J.; Stellmach, S.

    2012-12-01

    One of the most striking features of giant planets like Jupiter and Saturn are the zonal wind patterns observed on their surfaces. The mechanism that drives this differential rotation is still not clearly identified and is currently strongly debated in the astro- and geophysics community. Different mechanisms have been proposed over the last decades. Here, a recently discovered mechanism based on background density stratification (Glatzmaier et al., 2009) is investigated. This mechanism has the potential to overcome known difficulties of previous explanations and its efficiency has been demonstrated in 2-d simulations covering equatorial planes. By performing highly resolved numerical simulations in a local Cartesian geometry, we are able to test the efficiency and functionality of this mechanism in turbulent, rotating convection in three spatial dimensions. The choice of a Cartesian model geometry naturally excludes other known mechanisms capable of producing differential rotation, thus allowing us to investigate the role of density stratification in isolation. Typically, the dynamics can be classified into two main regimes: A regime exhibiting strong zonal winds for weak to moderate thermal driving and a regime where zonal winds are largely absent in the case of a strong thermal forcing. Our results indicate that previous 2-d results must be handled with care and can only explain parts of the full 3-d behavior. We show that the density-stratification mechanism tends to operate in a more narrow parameter range in 3-d as compared to 2-d simulations. The dynamics of the regime transition is shown to differ in both cases, which renders scaling laws derived from two-dimensional studies questionable. Based on our results, we provide estimates for the importance of the density-stratification mechanism for giant planets like Jupiter (strong density stratification), for systems like the Earth's core (weak density stratification) and compare its efficiency with other

  19. Role of imaging in evaluation of sudden cardiac death risk in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Geske, Jeffrey B; Ommen, Steve R

    2015-09-01

    Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common heritable cardiomyopathy and is associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD) - an uncommon but devastating clinical outcome. This review is designed to assess the role of imaging in established risk factor assessment and its role in emerging SCD risk stratification. Recent publications have highlighted the crucial role of imaging in HCM SCD risk stratification. Left ventricular hypertrophy assessment remains the key imaging determinant of risk. Data continue to emerge on the role of systolic dysfunction, apical aneurysms, left atrial enlargement and left ventricular outflow tract obstruction as markers of risk. Quantitative assessment of delayed myocardial enhancement and T1 mapping on cardiac MRI continue to evolve. Recent multicenter trials have allowed multivariate SCD risk assessment in large HCM cohorts. Given aggregate risk with presence of multiple risk factors, a single parameter should not be used in isolation to determine implantable cardiac defibrillator candidacy. Use of all available imaging data, including cardiac magnetic resonance tissue characterization, allows a comprehensive approach to SCD stratification and implantable cardiac defibrillator decision-making.

  20. Development of thermal stratification and destratification scaling concepts. Volume 2: Stratification. [tanks (containers)/tables (data)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lovrich, T. N.; Schwartz, S. H.

    1975-01-01

    Temperature and pressure data obtained from the saturated Freon 113 PCA closed-tank stratification tests are presented. The data presented in tabular form are the test conditions, sensible heat values, and Freon 113 PCA liquid and ullage (vapor) properties. Also included, are graphical representations of the liquid bulk temperature and pressure histories, and dimensionless liquid-ullage delta-temperature profiles. Modified Grashof numbers and Fourier number-history data are also presented graphically.

  1. Changes in oxidative patterns during dormancy break by warm and cold stratification in seeds of an edible fruit tree

    PubMed Central

    Shalimu, Dilinuer; Sun, Jia; Baskin, Carol C.; Baskin, Jerry M.; Sun, Liwei; Liu, Yujun

    2016-01-01

    The transition from seed dormancy to germination is triggered by environmental factors, and in pomegranate (Punica granatum) seeds higher germination percentages are achieved by warm + cold stratification rather than by cold stratification alone. Our objective was to define the pattern of internal oxidative changes in pomegranate seeds as dormancy was being broken by warm + cold stratification and by cold stratification alone. Embryos isolated from seeds after 1–42 days of warm stratification, after 56 days of warm stratification + 7, 28 or 56 days of cold stratification, and after 1–84 days of cold stratification alone, were used in biochemical tests. Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), nitric oxide (NO), proline, lipid peroxidation, protein carbonylation, and activities of the scavenging enzymes superoxide dismutase (SOD), hydrogen peroxide enzyme and peroxidase in the embryos were assessed by colorimetric methods. Our results indicated that warm + cold stratification had a stronger dormancy-breaking effect than cold stratification (85% versus 50% germination), which may be attributed to a higher yield of H2O2, NO, lipid peroxidation and protein carbonylation in warm + cold stratification. Furthermore, warm + cold stratification-induced H2O2 change led to greater changes (elevation followed by attenuation) in activities of the scavenging enzymes than that induced by cold stratification alone. These results indicated that restriction of the level of reactive oxygen species change within a positive and safe range by such enzymes promoted seed germination. In addition, a relatively strong elevation of proline during warm + cold stratification also contributed to dormancy breakage and subsequent germination. In conclusion, the strong dormancy alleviating effect of warm + cold stratification on pomegranate seeds may be attributed to the corresponding active oxidative change via H2O2, NO, proline, malondialdehyde, protein carbonylation and

  2. The formation of low-angle eolian stratification through the migration of protodunes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewing, R. C.; Phillips, J. D.; Weymer, B. A.; Barrineaux, P.; Bowling, R.; Nittrouer, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Protodunes are low-relief, slipfaceless migrating bed forms that represent the emergent form of eolian sand dunes. Protodunes develop as cm-scale topography out of a flat bed of sand and evolve spatially and temporally into dunes with angle-of-repose slipfaces. Protodunes at White Sands Dune Field in New Mexico form at the upwind, trailing margin of the field, on dune stoss slopes, and in interdune areas. Here we analyze protodunes at the upwind margin of White Sands by coupling 200 mHz ground penetrating radar (GPR) with time-series high-resolution topography to characterize the origin and evolution of protodune stratification and the stratigraphic transition into fully developed dunes. We surveyed a 780m transect in the resultant transport direction of the dune field from SW to NE from sand patches through protodunes and into the first dune. We used airborne lidar surveys and structure-from-motion photogrammetry from 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2015, and 2016. We find that protodune stratification forms at angles between 0-10 degrees by protodune migration. Dip angles increase as protodune amplitude increases along the transect. Accumulation of low-angle stratification increases across the first 650m and ranges from none to subcritical. Nearly aggradational accumulation of low-angle stratification occurs over the last 100m and is a precursor to angle-of-repose slipface formation. The origins of the aggradation and slipface development appear to be linked to protodune merging, dune interactions, and possibly to the development of a dune field-scale boundary layer. Protodunes and the formation of low-angle stratification at the upwind margin of White Sands are a good analog to the initiation of dune field development from sand sheets and the formation of low-angle stratification found at the base of eolian successions in the stratigraphic record.

  3. Stratification Pattern of Static and Scale-Invariant Dynamic Measures of Heartbeat Fluctuations Across Sleep Stages in Young and Elderly

    PubMed Central

    Schmitt, Daniel T.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

    2010-01-01

    Cardiac dynamics exhibit complex variability characterized by scale-invariant and nonlinear temporal organization related to the mechanism of neuroautonomic control, which changes with physiologic states and pathologic conditions. Changes in sleep regulation during sleep stages are also related to fluctuations in autonomic nervous activity. However, the interaction between sleep regulation and cardiac autonomic control remains not well understood. Even less is known how this interaction changes with age, as aspects of both cardiac dynamics and sleep regulation differ in healthy elderly compared to young subjects. We hypothesize that because of the neuroautonomic responsiveness in young subjects, fractal and nonlinear features of cardiac dynamics exhibit a pronounced stratification pattern across sleep stages, while in elderly these features will remain unchanged due to age-related loss of cardiac variability and decline of neuroautonomic responsiveness. We analyze the variability and the temporal fractal organization of heartbeat fluctuations across sleep stages in both young and elderly. We find that independent linear and nonlinear measures of cardiac control consistently exhibit the same ordering in their values across sleep stages, forming a robust stratification pattern. Despite changes in sleep architecture and reduced heart rate variability in elderly subjects, this stratification surprisingly does not break down with advanced age. Moreover, the difference between sleep stages for some linear, fractal, and nonlinear measures exceeds the difference between young and elderly, suggesting that the effect of sleep regulation on cardiac dynamics is significantly stronger than the effect of healthy aging. Quantifying changes in this stratification pattern may provide insights into how alterations in sleep regulation contribute to increased cardiac risk. PMID:19203874

  4. Robust dynamic myocardial perfusion CT deconvolution for accurate residue function estimation via adaptive-weighted tensor total variation regularization: a preclinical study.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Dong; Gong, Changfei; Bian, Zhaoying; Huang, Jing; Zhang, Xinyu; Zhang, Hua; Lu, Lijun; Niu, Shanzhou; Zhang, Zhang; Liang, Zhengrong; Feng, Qianjin; Chen, Wufan; Ma, Jianhua

    2016-11-21

    Dynamic myocardial perfusion computed tomography (MPCT) is a promising technique for quick diagnosis and risk stratification of coronary artery disease. However, one major drawback of dynamic MPCT imaging is the heavy radiation dose to patients due to its dynamic image acquisition protocol. In this work, to address this issue, we present a robust dynamic MPCT deconvolution algorithm via adaptive-weighted tensor total variation (AwTTV) regularization for accurate residue function estimation with low-mA s data acquisitions. For simplicity, the presented method is termed 'MPD-AwTTV'. More specifically, the gains of the AwTTV regularization over the original tensor total variation regularization are from the anisotropic edge property of the sequential MPCT images. To minimize the associative objective function we propose an efficient iterative optimization strategy with fast convergence rate in the framework of an iterative shrinkage/thresholding algorithm. We validate and evaluate the presented algorithm using both digital XCAT phantom and preclinical porcine data. The preliminary experimental results have demonstrated that the presented MPD-AwTTV deconvolution algorithm can achieve remarkable gains in noise-induced artifact suppression, edge detail preservation, and accurate flow-scaled residue function and MPHM estimation as compared with the other existing deconvolution algorithms in digital phantom studies, and similar gains can be obtained in the porcine data experiment.

  5. The Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System: risk stratification based on wound, ischemia, and foot infection (WIfI).

    PubMed

    Mills, Joseph L; Conte, Michael S; Armstrong, David G; Pomposelli, Frank B; Schanzer, Andres; Sidawy, Anton N; Andros, George

    2014-01-01

    Critical limb ischemia, first defined in 1982, was intended to delineate a subgroup of patients with a threatened lower extremity primarily because of chronic ischemia. It was the intent of the original authors that patients with diabetes be excluded or analyzed separately. The Fontaine and Rutherford Systems have been used to classify risk of amputation and likelihood of benefit from revascularization by subcategorizing patients into two groups: ischemic rest pain and tissue loss. Due to demographic shifts over the last 40 years, especially a dramatic rise in the incidence of diabetes mellitus and rapidly expanding techniques of revascularization, it has become increasingly difficult to perform meaningful outcomes analysis for patients with threatened limbs using these existing classification systems. Particularly in patients with diabetes, limb threat is part of a broad disease spectrum. Perfusion is only one determinant of outcome; wound extent and the presence and severity of infection also greatly impact the threat to a limb. Therefore, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Guidelines Committee undertook the task of creating a new classification of the threatened lower extremity that reflects these important considerations. We term this new framework, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System. Risk stratification is based on three major factors that impact amputation risk and clinical management: Wound, Ischemia, and foot Infection (WIfI). The implementation of this classification system is intended to permit more meaningful analysis of outcomes for various forms of therapy in this challenging, but heterogeneous population. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Effect of gravitational stratification on the propagation of a CME

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagano, P.; Mackay, D. H.; Poedts, S.

    2013-12-01

    Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most violent phenomenon found on the Sun. One model that explains their occurrence is the flux rope ejection model. A magnetic flux rope is ejected from the solar corona and reaches the interplanetary space where it interacts with the pre-existing magnetic fields and plasma. Both gravity and the stratification of the corona affect the early evolution of the flux rope. Aims: Our aim is to study the role of gravitational stratification on the propagation of CMEs. In particular, we assess how it influences the speed and shape of CMEs and under what conditions the flux rope ejection becomes a CME or when it is quenched. Methods: We ran a set of MHD simulations that adopt an eruptive initial magnetic configuration that has already been shown to be suitable for a flux rope ejection. We varied the temperature of the backgroud corona and the intensity of the initial magnetic field to tune the gravitational stratification and the amount of ejected magnetic flux. We used an automatic technique to track the expansion and the propagation of the magnetic flux rope in the MHD simulations. From the analysis of the parameter space, we evaluate the role of gravitational stratification on the CME speed and expansion. Results: Our study shows that gravitational stratification plays a significant role in determining whether the flux rope ejection will turn into a full CME or whether the magnetic flux rope will stop in the corona. The CME speed is affected by the background corona where it travels faster when the corona is colder and when the initial magnetic field is more intense. The fastest CME we reproduce in our parameter space travels at ~850 km s-1. Moreover, the background gravitational stratification plays a role in the side expansion of the CME, and we find that when the background temperature is higher, the resulting shape of the CME is flattened more. Conclusions: Our study shows that although the initiation mechanisms of the

  7. Randomization in clinical trials: stratification or minimization? The HERMES free simulation software.

    PubMed

    Fron Chabouis, Hélène; Chabouis, Francis; Gillaizeau, Florence; Durieux, Pierre; Chatellier, Gilles; Ruse, N Dorin; Attal, Jean-Pierre

    2014-01-01

    Operative clinical trials are often small and open-label. Randomization is therefore very important. Stratification and minimization are two randomization options in such trials. The first aim of this study was to compare stratification and minimization in terms of predictability and balance in order to help investigators choose the most appropriate allocation method. Our second aim was to evaluate the influence of various parameters on the performance of these techniques. The created software generated patients according to chosen trial parameters (e.g., number of important prognostic factors, number of operators or centers, etc.) and computed predictability and balance indicators for several stratification and minimization methods over a given number of simulations. Block size and proportion of random allocations could be chosen. A reference trial was chosen (50 patients, 1 prognostic factor, and 2 operators) and eight other trials derived from this reference trial were modeled. Predictability and balance indicators were calculated from 10,000 simulations per trial. Minimization performed better with complex trials (e.g., smaller sample size, increasing number of prognostic factors, and operators); stratification imbalance increased when the number of strata increased. An inverse correlation between imbalance and predictability was observed. A compromise between predictability and imbalance still has to be found by the investigator but our software (HERMES) gives concrete reasons for choosing between stratification and minimization; it can be downloaded free of charge. This software will help investigators choose the appropriate randomization method in future two-arm trials.

  8. Observations and analysis of a stratification-destratification event in a tropical estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uncles, R. J.; Ong, J. E.; Gong, W. K.

    1990-11-01

    A data set comprising 31 continuous tidal cycles was collected in the Sungai Merbok Estuary, Malaysia, in June 1987 as part of an ecological study of nutrient fluxes from a tropical mangrove estuary. Currents, salinity and salinity stratification at a deep-channel (15 m) station near the mouth of the Merbok Estuary showed a pronounced spring-neap variability. The slow currents and weak vertical mixing at neap tides favoured the formation of a stratified water column and generated a neap-spring cycle of water column stabilization and destabilization. A strong stratification event occurred during the period of observations. This was partly driven by a modest freshwater spate which coincided with neap tides. An eddy viscosity-diffusivity model of the stratification, which assumed a constant, longitudinal salinity gradient, demonstrated a pronounced stratification-destratification cycle due to neap-spring variations in vertical mixing. Larger and more realistic stratification was modelled when the estimated, time-varying longitudinal salinity gradient was incorporated. This gradient maximized in response to the peak in freshwater runoff. The measured and modelled density-driven circulations showed qualitative similarities and were of the order of 10 cm s -1 at neap tides. The circulation was weaker during spring tides. The tidally-filtered salt transport due to vertical shear was directed up-estuary and was an order of magnitude smaller during spring tides. The results are discussed in terms of their relevance to mangrove system oceanography.

  9. Coronary artery atherosclerosis and risk stratification in young adults with an intermediate pretest likelihood detected by multidetector computed tomography.

    PubMed

    Hou, Zhi-hui; Lu, Bin; Gao, Yang; Yu, Fang-fang; Cao, Hui-li; Jiang, Shi-liang; Roy, Sion K; Budoff, Matthew J

    2012-11-01

    To document the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in patients younger than 45 years of age with intermediate pretest likelihood of CAD, and to determine whether coronary computed tomography angiography (cCTA) is useful for risk stratification of this cohort. We followed 452 intermediate pretest likelihood (according to Diamond and Forrester) outpatients who were suspected of CAD and underwent cCTA. They were all younger than 45 years old. The endpoint was MACE, defined as composite cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. Follow-up was completed in 427 patients (94.5%) with a median follow-up period of 1081 days. No plaque was noted in 357 (83.6%) patients. Nonsignificant CAD was noted in 33 (7.7%) individuals and 37 (8.7%) patients with significant CAD. At the end of the follow-up period, 12 (2.8%) patients experienced MACE. The annualized event rate was 0.2% in patients with no plaque, 2.0% in patients with nonsignificant CAD, and 7.3% in patients with significant CAD. Hypertension, smoking, and significant CAD in cCTA were significant predictors of MACE in univariate analysis. Moreover, cCTA remained a predictor (P < .001) of events after multivariate correction (hazard ratio: 8.345, 95% CI: 3.438-17.823, P < .001). The prevalence of CAD and MACE in young adults with an intermediate pretest likelihood of CAD was considerable. cCTA is effective in restratifying patients into either a low or high posttest risk group. These results further emphasize the usefulness of cCTA in this cohort. Copyright © 2012 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Natural History of Wild-Type Transthyretin Cardiac Amyloidosis and Risk Stratification Using a Novel Staging System.

    PubMed

    Grogan, Martha; Scott, Christopher G; Kyle, Robert A; Zeldenrust, Steven R; Gertz, Morie A; Lin, Grace; Klarich, Kyle W; Miller, Wayne L; Maleszewski, Joseph J; Dispenzieri, Angela

    2016-09-06

    Wild-type transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (ATTRwt) is increasingly recognized as an important cause of heart failure. The purpose of this study was to determine the natural history of ATTRwt and the predictors of survival. We retrospectively reviewed patients diagnosed with ATTRwt at the Mayo Clinic through 2013 and recorded clinical data and survival data. Factors affecting overall survival (OS) were identified, and a prognostic staging system was developed. The median age of the 360 patients diagnosed before death was 75 years (range: 47 to 94 years), and 91% were male. Presenting signs and symptoms included dyspnea or heart failure in 67% and atrial arrhythmias in 62%. Median OS from diagnosis was 3.6 years and did not change over time. Multivariate predictors of mortality included age, ejection fraction, pericardial effusion, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and troponin T. A staging system was developed that used thresholds of troponin T (0.05 ng/ml) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (3,000 pg/ml). The respective 4-year OS estimates were 57%, 42%, and 18% for stage I (both values below cutoff), stage II (one above), and stage III (both above), respectively. Stage III patients were at an increased risk of mortality after adjustment for age and sex compared with stage I patients (hazard ratio: 3.6; p < 0.001). The natural history of ATTRwt is poor. We report a novel cardiac biomarker staging system that enables risk stratification in an era of emerging treatment strategies. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Performance of the 2015 International Task Force Consensus Statement Risk Stratification Algorithm for Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Placement in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Dysplasia/Cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Orgeron, Gabriela M; Te Riele, Anneline; Tichnell, Crystal; Wang, Weijia; Murray, Brittney; Bhonsale, Aditya; Judge, Daniel P; Kamel, Ihab R; Zimmerman, Stephan L; Tandri, Harikrishna; Calkins, Hugh; James, Cynthia A

    2018-02-01

    Ventricular arrhythmias are a feared complication of arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy. In 2015, an International Task Force Consensus Statement proposed a risk stratification algorithm for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator placement in arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy. To evaluate performance of the algorithm, 365 arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy patients were classified as having a Class I, IIa, IIb, or III indication per the algorithm at baseline. Survival free from sustained ventricular arrhythmia (VT/VF) in follow-up was the primary outcome. Incidence of ventricular fibrillation/flutter cycle length <240 ms was also assessed. Two hundred twenty-four (61%) patients had a Class I implantable cardioverter-defibrillator indication; 80 (22%), Class IIa; 54 (15%), Class IIb; and 7 (2%), Class III. During a median 4.2 (interquartile range, 1.7-8.4)-year follow-up, 190 (52%) patients had VT/VF and 60 (16%) had ventricular fibrillation/flutter. Although the algorithm appropriately differentiated risk of VT/VF, incidence of VT/VF was underestimated (observed versus expected: 29.6 [95% confidence interval, 25.2-34.0] versus >10%/year Class I; 15.5 [confidence interval 11.1-21.6] versus 1% to 10%/year Class IIa). In addition, the algorithm did not differentiate survival free from ventricular fibrillation/flutter between Class I and IIa patients ( P =0.97) or for VT/VF in Class I and IIa primary prevention patients ( P =0.22). Adding Holter results (<1000 premature ventricular contractions/24 hours) to International Task Force Consensus classification differentiated risks. While the algorithm differentiates arrhythmic risk well overall, it did not distinguish ventricular fibrillation/flutter risks of patients with Class I and IIa implantable cardioverter-defibrillator indications. Limited differentiation was seen for primary prevention cases. As these are vital uncertainties in clinical decision

  12. World Health Organization cardiovascular risk stratification and target organ damage.

    PubMed

    Piskorz, D; Bongarzoni, L; Citta, L; Citta, N; Citta, P; Keller, L; Mata, L; Tommasi, A

    2016-01-01

    Prediction charts allow treatment to be targeted according to simple markers of cardiovascular risk; many algorithms do not recommend screening asymptomatic target organ damage which could change dramatically the assessment. To demonstrate that target organ damage is present in low cardiovascular risk hypertensive patients and it is more frequent and severe as global cardiovascular risk increases. Consecutive hypertensive patients treated at a single Latin American center. Cardiovascular risk stratified according to 2013 WHO/ISH risk prediction chart America B. Left ventricular mass assessed by Devereux method, left ventricular hypertrophy considered >95g/m(2) in women and >115g/m(2) in men. Transmitral diastolic peak early flow velocity to average septal/lateral peak early diastolic relaxation velocity (E/e' ratio) measured cut off value >13. Systolic function assessed by tissue Doppler average interventricular septum/lateral wall mitral annulus rate systolic excursion (s wave). A total of 292 patients were included of whom 159 patients (54.5%) had cardiovascular risk of <10%, 90 (30.8%) had cardiovascular risk of 10-20% and 43 (14.7%) had cardiovascular risk of >20%. Left ventricular hypertrophy was detected in 17.6% low risk patients, 27.8% in medium risk and 23.3% in high risk (p<0.05), abnormal E/e' ratio was found in 13.8%, 31.1% and 27.9%, respectively (p<0.05). Mean s wave was 8.03+8, 8.1+9 and 8.7+1cm/s for low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively (p<0.025). Target organ damage is more frequent and severe in high risk; one over four subjects was misclassified due to the presence of asymptomatic target organ damage. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magee, Madeline R.; Wu, Chin H.

    2017-12-01

    Water temperatures and stratification are important drivers for ecological and water quality processes within lake systems, and changes in these with increases in air temperature and changes to wind speeds may have significant ecological consequences. To properly manage these systems under changing climate, it is important to understand the effects of increasing air temperatures and wind speed changes in lakes of different depths and surface areas. In this study, we simulate three lakes that vary in depth and surface area to elucidate the effects of the observed increasing air temperatures and decreasing wind speeds on lake thermal variables (water temperature, stratification dates, strength of stratification, and surface heat fluxes) over a century (1911-2014). For all three lakes, simulations showed that epilimnetic temperatures increased, hypolimnetic temperatures decreased, the length of the stratified season increased due to earlier stratification onset and later fall overturn, stability increased, and longwave and sensible heat fluxes at the surface increased. Overall, lake depth influences the presence of stratification, Schmidt stability, and differences in surface heat flux, while lake surface area influences differences in hypolimnion temperature, hypolimnetic heating, variability of Schmidt stability, and stratification onset and fall overturn dates. Larger surface area lakes have greater wind mixing due to increased surface momentum. Climate perturbations indicate that our larger study lakes have more variability in temperature and stratification variables than the smaller lakes, and this variability increases with larger wind speeds. For all study lakes, Pearson correlations and climate perturbation scenarios indicate that wind speed has a large effect on temperature and stratification variables, sometimes greater than changes in air temperature, and wind can act to either amplify or mitigate the effect of warmer air temperatures on lake thermal

  14. Changes in oxidative patterns during dormancy break by warm and cold stratification in seeds of an edible fruit tree.

    PubMed

    Shalimu, Dilinuer; Sun, Jia; Baskin, Carol C; Baskin, Jerry M; Sun, Liwei; Liu, Yujun

    2016-01-01

    The transition from seed dormancy to germination is triggered by environmental factors, and in pomegranate (Punica granatum) seeds higher germination percentages are achieved by warm + cold stratification rather than by cold stratification alone. Our objective was to define the pattern of internal oxidative changes in pomegranate seeds as dormancy was being broken by warm + cold stratification and by cold stratification alone. Embryos isolated from seeds after 1-42 days of warm stratification, after 56 days of warm stratification + 7, 28 or 56 days of cold stratification, and after 1-84 days of cold stratification alone, were used in biochemical tests. Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), nitric oxide (NO), proline, lipid peroxidation, protein carbonylation, and activities of the scavenging enzymes superoxide dismutase (SOD), hydrogen peroxide enzyme and peroxidase in the embryos were assessed by colorimetric methods. Our results indicated that warm + cold stratification had a stronger dormancy-breaking effect than cold stratification (85% versus 50% germination), which may be attributed to a higher yield of H2O2, NO, lipid peroxidation and protein carbonylation in warm + cold stratification. Furthermore, warm + cold stratification-induced H2O2 change led to greater changes (elevation followed by attenuation) in activities of the scavenging enzymes than that induced by cold stratification alone. These results indicated that restriction of the level of reactive oxygen species change within a positive and safe range by such enzymes promoted seed germination. In addition, a relatively strong elevation of proline during warm + cold stratification also contributed to dormancy breakage and subsequent germination. In conclusion, the strong dormancy alleviating effect of warm + cold stratification on pomegranate seeds may be attributed to the corresponding active oxidative change via H2O2, NO, proline, malondialdehyde, protein carbonylation and

  15. Risk stratification with cervical length and fetal fibronectin in women with threatened preterm labor before 34 weeks and not delivering within 7 days.

    PubMed

    Hermans, Frederik J R; Bruijn, Merel M C; Vis, Jolande Y; Wilms, Femke F; Oudijk, Martijn A; Porath, Martina M; Scheepers, Hubertina C J; Bloemenkamp, Kitty W M; Bax, Caroline J; Cornette, Jérôme M J; Nij Bijvanck, Bas W A; Franssen, Maureen T M; Vandenbussche, Frank P H A; Kok, Marjolein; Grobman, William A; Van Der Post, Joris A M; Bossuyt, Patrick M M; Opmeer, Brent C; Mol, Ben Willem J; Schuit, Ewoud; Van Baaren, Gert-Jan

    2015-07-01

    To stratify the risk of spontaneous preterm delivery using cervical length (CL) and fetal fibronectin (fFN) in women with threatened preterm labor who remained pregnant after 7 days. Prospective observational study. Nationwide cohort of women with threatened preterm labor from the Netherlands. Women with threatened preterm labor between 24 and 34 weeks with a valid CL and fFN measurement and remaining pregnant 7 days after admission. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate cumulative percentages and hazard ratios (HR) for spontaneous delivery. Spontaneous delivery between 7 and 14 days after initial presentation and spontaneous preterm delivery before 34 weeks. The risk of delivery between 7 and 14 days was significantly increased for women with a CL < 15 mm or a CL ≥15 to <30 mm and a positive fFN, compared with women with a CL ≥30 mm: HR 22.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6-191] and 14 (95% CI 1.8-118), respectively. For spontaneous preterm delivery before 34 weeks the risk was increased for women with a CL < 15 mm [HR 6.3 (95% CI 2.6-15)] or with a CL ≥15 to <30 mm with either positive fFN [HR 3.6 (95% CI 1.5-8.7)] or negative fFN [HR 3.0 (95% CI 1.2-7.1)] compared with women with a CL ≥ 30 mm. In women remaining pregnant 7 days after threatened preterm labor, CL and fFN results can be used in risk stratification for spontaneous delivery. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  16. Filling box stratification fed by a gravity current

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hogg, Charlie; Huppert, Herbert; Imberger, Jorg

    2012-11-01

    Fluids in confined basins can be stratified by the filling box mechanism. The source of dense fluid in geophysical applications, such as a cold river entering a warmer lake, can be a gravity current running over a shallow slope. Filling box models are often, however, based on the dynamics of vertically falling, unconfined, plumes which entrain fluid by a different mechanism to gravity currents on shallow slopes. Laboratory tank experiments of a filling box fed by a gravity current running over a shallow slope were carried out using a dye attenuation technique to investigate the development of the stratification of the ambient. These results demonstrate the differences in the stratification generated by a gravity current compared to that generated by a plume and demonstrate the nature of entrainment into gravity currents on shallow slopes.

  17. High-sensitivity troponin T and risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation during treatment with apixaban or warfarin.

    PubMed

    Hijazi, Ziad; Wallentin, Lars; Siegbahn, Agneta; Andersson, Ulrika; Alexander, John H; Atar, Dan; Gersh, Bernard J; Hanna, Michael; Harjola, Veli Pekka; Horowitz, John D; Husted, Steen; Hylek, Elaine M; Lopes, Renato D; McMurray, John J V; Granger, Christopher B

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) in addition to clinical risk factors and the CHA2DS2VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, 75 years of age and older, diabetes mellitus, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, 65 to 74 years of age, female) risk score in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The level of troponin is a powerful predictor of cardiovascular events and mortality. A total of 14,897 patients with AF were randomized to treatment with apixaban or warfarin in the ARISTOTLE (Apixaban for the Prevention of Stroke in Subjects With Atrial Fibrillation) trial. The associations between baseline hs-TnT levels and outcomes were evaluated using adjusted Cox regression models. Levels of hs-TnT were measurable in 93.5% of patients; 75% had levels >7.5 ng/l, 50% had levels >11.0 ng/l, and 25% had levels >16.7 ng/l. During a median 1.9-year period, the annual rates of stroke or systemic embolism ranged from 0.87% in the lowest hs-TnT quartile to 2.13% in the highest hs-TnT quartile (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.35 to 2.78; p = 0.0010). The annual rates in the corresponding groups ranged from 0.46% to 4.24% (adjusted HR: 4.31; 95% CI: 2.91 to 6.37; p < 0.0001) for cardiac death and from 1.26% to 4.21% (adjusted HR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.43 to 2.56; p = 0.0001) for major bleeding. Adding hs-TnT levels to the CHA2DS2VASc score improved the C statistic from 0.620 to 0.635 for stroke or systemic embolism (p = 0.0226), from 0.592 to 0.711 for cardiac death (p < 0.0001), and from 0.591 to 0.629 for major bleeding (p < 0.0001). Apixaban reduced rates of stroke, mortality, and bleeding regardless of the hs-TnT level. Levels of hs-TnT are often elevated in patients with AF. The hs-TnT level is independently associated with an increased risk of stroke, cardiac death, and major bleeding and improves risk stratification beyond the CHA2DS2VASc risk score

  18. A risk score including microdeletions improves relapse prediction for standard and medium risk precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children.

    PubMed

    Sutton, Rosemary; Venn, Nicola C; Law, Tamara; Boer, Judith M; Trahair, Toby N; Ng, Anthea; Den Boer, Monique L; Dissanayake, Anuruddhika; Giles, Jodie E; Dalzell, Pauline; Mayoh, Chelsea; Barbaric, Draga; Revesz, Tamas; Alvaro, Frank; Pieters, Rob; Haber, Michelle; Norris, Murray D; Schrappe, Martin; Dalla Pozza, Luciano; Marshall, Glenn M

    2018-02-01

    To prevent relapse, high risk paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is treated very intensively. However, most patients who eventually relapse have standard or medium risk ALL with low minimal residual disease (MRD) levels. We analysed recurrent microdeletions and other clinical prognostic factors in a cohort of 475 uniformly treated non-high risk precursor B-cell ALL patients with the aim of better predicting relapse and refining risk stratification. Lower relapse-free survival at 7 years (RFS) was associated with IKZF1 intragenic deletions (P < 0·0001); P2RY8-CRLF2 gene fusion (P < 0·0004); Day 33 MRD>5 × 10 -5 (P < 0·0001) and High National Cancer Institute (NCI) risk (P < 0·0001). We created a predictive model based on a risk score (RS) for deletions, MRD and NCI risk, extending from an RS of 0 (RS0) for patients with no unfavourable factors to RS2 +  for patients with 2 or 3 high risk factors. RS0, RS1, and RS2 +  groups had RFS of 93%, 78% and 49%, respectively, and overall survival (OS) of 99%, 91% and 71%. The RS provided greater discrimination than MRD-based risk stratification into standard (89% RFS, 96% OS) and medium risk groups (79% RFS, 91% OS). We conclude that this RS may enable better early therapeutic stratification and thus improve cure rates for childhood ALL. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Urban noise functional stratification for estimating average annual sound level.

    PubMed

    Rey Gozalo, Guillermo; Barrigón Morillas, Juan Miguel; Prieto Gajardo, Carlos

    2015-06-01

    Road traffic noise causes many health problems and the deterioration of the quality of urban life; thus, adequate spatial noise and temporal assessment methods are required. Different methods have been proposed for the spatial evaluation of noise in cities, including the categorization method. Until now, this method has only been applied for the study of spatial variability with measurements taken over a week. In this work, continuous measurements of 1 year carried out in 21 different locations in Madrid (Spain), which has more than three million inhabitants, were analyzed. The annual average sound levels and the temporal variability were studied in the proposed categories. The results show that the three proposed categories highlight the spatial noise stratification of the studied city in each period of the day (day, evening, and night) and in the overall indicators (L(And), L(Aden), and L(A24)). Also, significant differences between the diurnal and nocturnal sound levels show functional stratification in these categories. Therefore, this functional stratification offers advantages from both spatial and temporal perspectives by reducing the sampling points and the measurement time.

  20. Variability of stratification according to operation of the tidal power plant in Lake Sihwa, South Korea.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woo, S. B.; Song, J. I.; Jang, T. H.; Park, C. J.; Kwon, H. K.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial forcing according to operation of the tidal power plant (TPP) affects the physical environmental changes near the power plant. Strong turbulence by generation is expected to change the stratification structure of the Lake Sihwa inside. In order to examine the stratification changes by the power plant operation, ship bottom mounted observation were performed for 13 hours using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) in Lake Sihwa at near TPP. The strong stratification in Sihwa Lake is maintained before TPP operation. The absence of external forces and freshwater inflow from the land forms the stratification in the Lake. Strong winds in a stratification statement lead to two-layer circulation. After wind event, multi-layer velocity structure is formed which lasted for approximately 4 h. After TPP operation, the jet flow was observed in entire water column at the beginning of the power generation. Vortex is formed by strong jet flow and maintained throughout during power generation period. Strong turbulence flow is generated by the turbine blades, enhancing vertical mixing. External forces, which dominantly affect Lake Sihwa, have changed from the wind to the turbulent flow. The stratification was extinguished by strong turbulent flow and becomes fully-mixed state. Changes in stratification structure are expected to affect material transport and ecological environment change continuously.

  1. Breast Cancer Risk From Modifiable and Nonmodifiable Risk Factors Among White Women in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Maas, Paige; Barrdahl, Myrto; Joshi, Amit D.; Auer, Paul L.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Milne, Roger L.; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Anderson, William F.; Check, David; Chattopadhyay, Subham; Baglietto, Laura; Berg, Christine D.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Cox, David G.; Figueroa, Jonine D.; Gail, Mitchell H.; Graubard, Barry I.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Hoover, Robert N.; Isaacs, Claudine; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Le Marchand, Loic; Lee, I-Min; Lindström, Sara; Overvad, Kim; Romieu, Isabelle; Sanchez, Maria-Jose; Southey, Melissa C.; Stram, Daniel O.; Tumino, Rosario; VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Willett, Walter C.; Zhang, Shumin; Buring, Julie E.; Canzian, Federico; Gapstur, Susan M.; Henderson, Brian E.; Hunter, David J.; Giles, Graham G; Prentice, Ross L.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Kraft, Peter; Garcia-Closas, Montse; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

    2017-01-01

    IMPORTANCE An improved model for risk stratification can be useful for guiding public health strategies of breast cancer prevention. OBJECTIVE To evaluate combined risk stratification utility of common low penetrant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and epidemiologic risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using a total of 17 171 cases and 19 862 controls sampled from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3) and 5879 women participating in the 2010 National Health Interview Survey, a model for predicting absolute risk of breast cancer was developed combining information on individual level data on epidemiologic risk factors and 24 genotyped SNPs from prospective cohort studies, published estimate of odds ratios for 68 additional SNPs, population incidence rate from the National Cancer Institute-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program cancer registry and data on risk factor distribution from nationally representative health survey. The model is used to project the distribution of absolute risk for the population of white women in the United States after adjustment for competing cause of mortality. EXPOSURES Single nucleotide polymorphisms, family history, anthropometric factors, menstrual and/or reproductive factors, and lifestyle factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Degree of stratification of absolute risk owing to nonmodifiable (SNPs, family history, height, and some components of menstrual and/or reproductive history) and modifiable factors (body mass index [BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared], menopausal hormone therapy [MHT], alcohol, and smoking). RESULTS The average absolute risk for a 30-year-old white woman in the United States developing invasive breast cancer by age 80 years is 11.3%. A model that includes all risk factors provided a range of average absolute risk from 4.4% to 23.5% for women in the bottom and top deciles of the risk distribution, respectively. For women who

  2. A two-stage clinical decision support system for early recognition and stratification of patients with sepsis: an observational cohort study.

    PubMed

    Amland, Robert C; Lyons, Jason J; Greene, Tracy L; Haley, James M

    2015-10-01

    To examine the diagnostic accuracy of a two-stage clinical decision support system for early recognition and stratification of patients with sepsis. Observational cohort study employing a two-stage sepsis clinical decision support to recognise and stratify patients with sepsis. The stage one component was comprised of a cloud-based clinical decision support with 24/7 surveillance to detect patients at risk of sepsis. The cloud-based clinical decision support delivered notifications to the patients' designated nurse, who then electronically contacted a provider. The second stage component comprised a sepsis screening and stratification form integrated into the patient electronic health record, essentially an evidence-based decision aid, used by providers to assess patients at bedside. Urban, 284 acute bed community hospital in the USA; 16,000 hospitalisations annually. Data on 2620 adult patients were collected retrospectively in 2014 after the clinical decision support was implemented. 'Suspected infection' was the established gold standard to assess clinical decision support clinimetric performance. A sepsis alert activated on 417 (16%) of 2620 adult patients hospitalised. Applying 'suspected infection' as standard, the patient population characteristics showed 72% sensitivity and 73% positive predictive value. A postalert screening conducted by providers at bedside of 417 patients achieved 81% sensitivity and 94% positive predictive value. Providers documented against 89% patients with an alert activated by clinical decision support and completed 75% of bedside screening and stratification of patients with sepsis within one hour from notification. A clinical decision support binary alarm system with cross-checking functionality improves early recognition and facilitates stratification of patients with sepsis.

  3. High aeration rate enhances flow stratification in full-scale oxidation ditch.

    PubMed

    Diamantis, Vasileios; Papaspyrou, Ioannis; Melidis, Parasxos; Aivasidis, Alexander

    2010-02-01

    Aerated channel reactors with a uniform field of aeration may display flow stratification and short-circuit phenomena in wastewater treatment systems. In this study, we present data suggesting that flow stratification is closely related to the aeration rate and the arrangement of aerators. A full-scale oxidation ditch, with a total volume of 6,500 m(3) and a membrane-diffused aerated zone of 60 x 7 x 5 m (length-width-depth), was selected for water velocity measurements. Two profiles of the oxidation ditch were studied in detail: the first one was at the end of the aerated zone and the second one at the end of the anoxic zone. The results of this work demonstrate that the horizontal water velocity at the end of the aerated zone displayed significant stratification, with maximum velocity near the water surface (0.5-0.7 m/s) and almost zero velocity at a depth of 2.5 m. At the end of the anoxic zone, water velocity was uniform and equal to 0.27-0.31 m/s. Increasing the aeration rate from 1,800 to 4,300 m(3)/h, almost 90% of the water flow was found to discharge through the upper-half of the channel reactor profile. Different options to mitigate flow stratification of the oxidation ditch are discussed in this paper.

  4. Numerical solution of chemically reactive non-Newtonian fluid flow: Dual stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehman, Khalil Ur; Malik, M. Y.; Khan, Abid Ali; Zehra, Iffat; Zahri, Mostafa; Tahir, M.

    2017-12-01

    We have found that only a few attempts are available in the literature relatively to the tangent hyperbolic fluid flow induced by stretching cylindrical surfaces. In particular, temperature and concentration stratification effects have not been investigated until now with respect to the tangent hyperbolic fluid model. Therefore, we have considered the tangent hyperbolic fluid flow induced by an acutely inclined cylindrical surface in the presence of both temperature and concentration stratification effects. To be more specific, the fluid flow is attained with the no slip condition, which implies that the bulk motion of the fluid particles is the same as the stretching velocity of a cylindrical surface. Additionally, the flow field situation is manifested with heat generation, mixed convection and chemical reaction effects. The flow partial differential equations give a complete description of the present problem. Therefore, to trace out the solution, a set of suitable transformations is introduced to convert these equations into ordinary differential equations. In addition, a self-coded computational algorithm is executed to inspect the numerical solution of these reduced equations. The effect logs of the involved parameters are provided graphically. Furthermore, the variations of the physical quantities are examined and given with the aid of tables. It is observed that the fluid temperature is a decreasing function of the thermal stratification parameter and a similar trend is noticed for the concentration via the solutal stratification parameter.

  5. Potential Impacts of Offshore Wind Farms on North Sea Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Carpenter, Jeffrey R.; Merckelbach, Lucas; Callies, Ulrich; Clark, Suzanna; Gaslikova, Lidia; Baschek, Burkard

    2016-01-01

    Advances in offshore wind farm (OWF) technology have recently led to their construction in coastal waters that are deep enough to be seasonally stratified. As tidal currents move past the OWF foundation structures they generate a turbulent wake that will contribute to a mixing of the stratified water column. In this study we show that the mixing generated in this way may have a significant impact on the large-scale stratification of the German Bight region of the North Sea. This region is chosen as the focus of this study since the planning of OWFs is particularly widespread. Using a combination of idealised modelling and in situ measurements, we provide order-of-magnitude estimates of two important time scales that are key to understanding the impacts of OWFs: (i) a mixing time scale, describing how long a complete mixing of the stratification takes, and (ii) an advective time scale, quantifying for how long a water parcel is expected to undergo enhanced wind farm mixing. The results are especially sensitive to both the drag coefficient and type of foundation structure, as well as the evolution of the pycnocline under enhanced mixing conditions—both of which are not well known. With these limitations in mind, the results show that OWFs could impact the large-scale stratification, but only when they occupy extensive shelf regions. They are expected to have very little impact on large-scale stratification at the current capacity in the North Sea, but the impact could be significant in future large-scale development scenarios. PMID:27513754

  6. Potential Impacts of Offshore Wind Farms on North Sea Stratification.

    PubMed

    Carpenter, Jeffrey R; Merckelbach, Lucas; Callies, Ulrich; Clark, Suzanna; Gaslikova, Lidia; Baschek, Burkard

    2016-01-01

    Advances in offshore wind farm (OWF) technology have recently led to their construction in coastal waters that are deep enough to be seasonally stratified. As tidal currents move past the OWF foundation structures they generate a turbulent wake that will contribute to a mixing of the stratified water column. In this study we show that the mixing generated in this way may have a significant impact on the large-scale stratification of the German Bight region of the North Sea. This region is chosen as the focus of this study since the planning of OWFs is particularly widespread. Using a combination of idealised modelling and in situ measurements, we provide order-of-magnitude estimates of two important time scales that are key to understanding the impacts of OWFs: (i) a mixing time scale, describing how long a complete mixing of the stratification takes, and (ii) an advective time scale, quantifying for how long a water parcel is expected to undergo enhanced wind farm mixing. The results are especially sensitive to both the drag coefficient and type of foundation structure, as well as the evolution of the pycnocline under enhanced mixing conditions-both of which are not well known. With these limitations in mind, the results show that OWFs could impact the large-scale stratification, but only when they occupy extensive shelf regions. They are expected to have very little impact on large-scale stratification at the current capacity in the North Sea, but the impact could be significant in future large-scale development scenarios.

  7. Peripheral zone lesions of intermediary risk in multiparametric prostate MRI: Frequency and validation of the PI-RADSv2 risk stratification algorithm based on focal contrast enhancement.

    PubMed

    Benndorf, Matthias; Waibel, Lorenz; Krönig, Malte; Jilg, Cordula Annette; Langer, Mathias; Krauss, Tobias

    2018-02-01

    To validate the risk stratification algorithm of the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADSv2) for intermediary risk lesions (PI-RADSv2 category 3) in the peripheral zone based on focal contrast enhancement and to compare cancer rates in category 3, upgraded category 4 and category 4 based on markedly low ADC value. We retrospectively analyze 172 consecutive patients undergoing prostate MRI with 315 histopathologically verified lesions. We select all lesions either assigned category 3 or category 4 in the peripheral zone for further analysis. We compare cancer rates with the two-sided chi-squared test. To determine inter-observer agreement about contrast enhancement two blinded radiologists evaluate the subset of category 3 lesions based on the diffusion weighted sequence. The frequency of peripheral PI-RADS 3, upgraded PI-RADS 4 and PI-RADS 4 lesions based on markedly low ADC value is 10.8%, 10.8% and 20.3%, respectively. Cancer rates (significant cancer only) in these subgroups are 8.8% (3/34), 23.5% (8/34) and 40.6% (26/64), P < 0.01. Inter-observer agreement is moderate for evaluation of contrast enhancement with kappa values between 0.46 and 0.5. We demonstrate a trend of increasing cancer rate from PI-RADSv2 category 3 to upgraded category 4 to category 4 based on markedly low ADC value. Peripheral lesions of intermediary risk in the diffusion weighted sequence account for 21.6% of all prostate lesions encountered. Since it is likely that patient management recommendations will be linked to assessment categories in future versions of PI-RADS, cancer rates in upgraded category 4 and category 4 based on markedly low ADC values should be in a similar range. We conclude that in future studies of PI-RADSv2 upgraded category 4 and category 4 based on markedly low ADC value should be reported separately to generate a database for meta-analysis of cancer rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Refractory Anemia with Ring Sideroblasts (RARS) and RARS with Thrombocytosis (RARS-T) – “2017 Update on Diagnosis, Risk-stratification, and Management”

    PubMed Central

    Patnaik, Mrinal M.; Tefferi, Ayalew

    2017-01-01

    Disease Overview Ring sideroblasts (RS) are erythroid precursors with abnormal perinuclear mitochondrial iron accumulation. Two myeloid neoplasms defined by the presence of RS, include refractory anemia with ring sideroblasts (RARS), now classified under myelodysplastic syndromes with RS (MDS-RS) and RARS with thrombocytosis (RARS-T); now called myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasm with RS and thrombocytosis (MDS/MPN-RS-T). Diagnosis MDS-RS is a lower risk MDS, with single or multilineage dysplasia (SLD/MLD), <5% bone marrow (BM) blasts and ≥15% BM RS (≥5% in the presence of SF3B1 mutations). MDS/MPN-RS-T, now a formal entity in the MDS/MPN overlap syndromes, has diagnostic features of MDS-RS-SLD, along with a platelet count ≥ 450 × 10(9)/L and large atypical megakaryocytes (similar to BCR-ABL1 negative MPN). Mutations and Karyotype Mutations in SF3B1 are seen in ≥80% of patients with MDS-RS-SLD and MDS/MPN-RS-T, and strongly correlate with the presence of BM RS; MDS/MPN-RS-T patients also demonstrate JAK2V617F, ASXL1, DNMT3A, SETBP1, and TET2 mutations; with ASXL1/SETBP1 mutations adversely impacting survival. Cytogenetic abnormalities are uncommon in both diseases. Risk stratification Most patients with MDS-RS-SLD are stratified into lower risk groups by the revised-International Prognostic Scoring System (R-IPSS). Disease outcome in MDS/MPN-RS-T is better than that of MDS-RS-SLD, but worse than that of essential thrombocythemia. Both diseases have a low risk of leukemic transformation. Treatment Anemia and iron overload are complications seen in both and are managed similar to lower risk MDS and MPN. Aspirin therapy is reasonable in MDS/MPN-RS-T, especially in the presence of JAK2V617F, but the value of platelet-lowering drugs is uncertain. PMID:28188970

  9. Social Stratification: A Modular Approach. Cultural Anthropology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kassebaum, Peter

    Designed for use as supplementary instructional material in a cultural anthropology course, this learning module introduces students to the basic concepts of social stratification, one of the more controversial areas of contemporary social theory. An overview is provided of the explanations that have been put forth by social philosophers for…

  10. Summer Stratification and Fall Overturn--In a Jar.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foley, Arlene F.

    1984-01-01

    Provided are procedures for a demonstration which illustrates the concept of summer stratification of lakes in the temperate zone as maintained by thermal resistance to mixing. The demonstration requires only food coloring, water, and common laboratory equipment. (JN)

  11. Recent advances in the management of chronic stable angina I: Approach to the patient, diagnosis, pathophysiology, risk stratification, and gender disparities

    PubMed Central

    Kones, Richard

    2010-01-01

    The potential importance of both prevention and personal responsibility in controlling heart disease, the leading cause of death in the USA and elsewhere, has attracted renewed attention. Coronary artery disease is preventable, using relatively simple and inexpensive lifestyle changes. The inexorable rise in the prevalence of obesity, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, often in the risk cluster known as the metabolic syndrome, drives the ever-increasing incidence of heart disease. Population-wide improvements in personal health habits appear to be a fundamental, evidence based public health measure, yet numerous barriers prevent implementation. A common symptom in patients with coronary artery disease, classical angina refers to the typical chest pressure or discomfort that results when myocardial oxygen demand rises and coronary blood flow is reduced by fixed, atherosclerotic, obstructive lesions. Different forms of angina and diagnosis, with a short description of the significance of pain and silent ischemia, are discussed in this review. The well accepted concept of myocardial oxygen imbalance in the genesis of angina is presented with new data about clinical pathology of stable angina and acute coronary syndromes. The roles of stress electrocardiography and stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphic imaging are reviewed, along with the information these tests provide about risk and prognosis. Finally, the current status of gender disparities in heart disease is summarized. Enhanced risk stratification and identification of patients in whom procedures will meaningfully change management is an ongoing quest. Current guidelines emphasize efficient triage of patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Many experts believe the predictive value of current decision protocols for coronary artery disease still needs improvement in order to optimize outcomes, yet avoid unnecessary coronary angiograms and radiation exposure. Coronary angiography remains the

  12. Recent advances in the management of chronic stable angina I: approach to the patient, diagnosis, pathophysiology, risk stratification, and gender disparities.

    PubMed

    Kones, Richard

    2010-08-09

    The potential importance of both prevention and personal responsibility in controlling heart disease, the leading cause of death in the USA and elsewhere, has attracted renewed attention. Coronary artery disease is preventable, using relatively simple and inexpensive lifestyle changes. The inexorable rise in the prevalence of obesity, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, often in the risk cluster known as the metabolic syndrome, drives the ever-increasing incidence of heart disease. Population-wide improvements in personal health habits appear to be a fundamental, evidence based public health measure, yet numerous barriers prevent implementation. A common symptom in patients with coronary artery disease, classical angina refers to the typical chest pressure or discomfort that results when myocardial oxygen demand rises and coronary blood flow is reduced by fixed, atherosclerotic, obstructive lesions. Different forms of angina and diagnosis, with a short description of the significance of pain and silent ischemia, are discussed in this review. The well accepted concept of myocardial oxygen imbalance in the genesis of angina is presented with new data about clinical pathology of stable angina and acute coronary syndromes. The roles of stress electrocardiography and stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphic imaging are reviewed, along with the information these tests provide about risk and prognosis. Finally, the current status of gender disparities in heart disease is summarized. Enhanced risk stratification and identification of patients in whom procedures will meaningfully change management is an ongoing quest. Current guidelines emphasize efficient triage of patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Many experts believe the predictive value of current decision protocols for coronary artery disease still needs improvement in order to optimize outcomes, yet avoid unnecessary coronary angiograms and radiation exposure. Coronary angiography remains the

  13. Stratification on the Skagit Bay Tidal Flats

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-01

    and wind -driven currents can 11 affect the potential energy anomaly balance in estuaries and ROFIs during storms (Yang and Khangaonkar, 2009...30 3.4.1 The Potential Energy Anomaly Balance...turbulent energy is dissipated by destabilizing the fluid rather than by slowing the upper water column (Turner, 1973). Overall, stratification tends to

  14. Application and comparison of the FADES, MADIT, and SHFM-D risk models for risk stratification of prophylactic implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treatment

    PubMed Central

    van der Heijden, Aafke C.; van Rees, Johannes B.; Levy, Wayne C.; van der Bom, Johanna G.; Cannegieter, Suzanne C.; de Bie, Mihàly K.; van Erven, Lieselot; Schalij, Martin J.; Borleffs, C. Jan  Willem

    2017-01-01

    Aims Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) treatment is beneficial in selected patients. However, it remains difficult to accurately predict which patients benefit most from ICD implantation. For this purpose, different risk models have been developed. The aim was to validate and compare the FADES, MADIT, and SHFM-D models. Methods and results All patients receiving a prophylactic ICD at the Leiden University Medical Center were evaluated. Individual model performance was evaluated by C-statistics. Model performances were compared using net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated differentiation improvement (IDI). The primary endpoint was non-benefit of ICD treatment, defined as mortality without prior ventricular arrhythmias requiring ICD intervention. A total of 1969 patients were included (age 63 ± 11 years; 79% male). During a median follow-up of 4.5 ± 3.9 years, 318 (16%) patients died without prior ICD intervention. All three risk models were predictive for event-free mortality (all: P < 0.001). The C-statistics were 0.66, 0.69, and 0.75, respectively, for FADES, MADIT, and SHFM-D (all: P < 0.001). Application of the SHFM-D resulted in an improved IDI of 4% and NRI of 26% compared with MADIT; IDI improved 11% with the use of SHFM-D instead of FADES (all: P < 0.001), but NRI remained unchanged (P = 0.71). Patients in the highest-risk category of the MADIT and SHFM-D models had 1.7 times higher risk to experience ICD non-benefit than receive appropriate ICD interventions [MADIT: mean difference (MD) 20% (95% CI: 7–33%), P = 0.001; SHFM-D: MD 16% (95% CI: 5–27%), P = 0.005]. Patients in the highest-risk category of FADES were as likely to experience ICD intervention as ICD non-benefit [MD 3% (95% CI: –8 to 14%), P = 0.60]. Conclusion The predictive and discriminatory value of SHFM-D to predict non-benefit of ICD treatment is superior to FADES and MADIT in patients receiving prophylactic ICD treatment. PMID:28130376

  15. A validation study of the 2003 American College of Cardiology/European Society of Cardiology and 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association risk stratification and treatment algorithms for sudden cardiac death in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    O'Mahony, Constantinos; Tome-Esteban, Maite; Lambiase, Pier D; Pantazis, Antonios; Dickie, Shaughan; McKenna, William J; Elliott, Perry M

    2013-04-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a common mode of death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but identification of patients who are at a high risk of SCD is challenging as current risk stratification guidelines have never been formally validated. The objective of this study was to assess the power of the 2003 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and 2011 ACC Foundation (ACCF)/American Heart Association (AHA) SCD risk stratification algorithms to distinguish high risk patients who might be eligible for an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) from low risk individuals. We studied 1606 consecutively evaluated HCM patients in an observational, retrospective cohort study. Five risk factors (RF) for SCD were assessed: non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, severe left ventricular hypertrophy, family history of SCD, unexplained syncope and abnormal blood pressure response to exercise. During a follow-up period of 11 712 patient years (median 6.6 years), SCD/appropriate ICD shock occurred in 20 (3%) of 660 patients without RF (annual rate 0.45%), 31 (4.8%) of 636 patients with 1 RF (annual rate 0.65%), 27 (10.8%) of 249 patients with 2 RF (annual rate 1.3%), 7 (13.7%) of 51 patients with 3 RF (annual rate 1.9%) and 4 (40%) of 10 patients with ≥4 RF (annual rate 5.0%). The risk of SCD increased with multiple RF (2 RF: HR 2.87, p≤0.001; 3 RF: HR 4.32, p=0.001; ≥4 RF: HR 11.37, p<0.0001), but not with a single RF (HR 1.43 p=0.21). The area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (representing the probability of correctly identifying a patient at risk of SCD on the basis of RF profile) was 0.63 at 1 year and 0.64 at 5 years for the 2003 ACC/ESC algorithm and 0.61 at 1 year and 0.63 at 5 years for the 2011 ACCF/AHA algorithm. The risk of SCD increases with the aggregation of RF. The 2003 ACC/ESC and 2011 ACCF/AHA guidelines distinguish high from low risk individuals with limited power.

  16. Entropy-based consensus clustering for patient stratification.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hongfu; Zhao, Rui; Fang, Hongsheng; Cheng, Feixiong; Fu, Yun; Liu, Yang-Yu

    2017-09-01

    Patient stratification or disease subtyping is crucial for precision medicine and personalized treatment of complex diseases. The increasing availability of high-throughput molecular data provides a great opportunity for patient stratification. Many clustering methods have been employed to tackle this problem in a purely data-driven manner. Yet, existing methods leveraging high-throughput molecular data often suffers from various limitations, e.g. noise, data heterogeneity, high dimensionality or poor interpretability. Here we introduced an Entropy-based Consensus Clustering (ECC) method that overcomes those limitations all together. Our ECC method employs an entropy-based utility function to fuse many basic partitions to a consensus one that agrees with the basic ones as much as possible. Maximizing the utility function in ECC has a much more meaningful interpretation than any other consensus clustering methods. Moreover, we exactly map the complex utility maximization problem to the classic K -means clustering problem, which can then be efficiently solved with linear time and space complexity. Our ECC method can also naturally integrate multiple molecular data types measured from the same set of subjects, and easily handle missing values without any imputation. We applied ECC to 110 synthetic and 48 real datasets, including 35 cancer gene expression benchmark datasets and 13 cancer types with four molecular data types from The Cancer Genome Atlas. We found that ECC shows superior performance against existing clustering methods. Our results clearly demonstrate the power of ECC in clinically relevant patient stratification. The Matlab package is available at http://scholar.harvard.edu/yyl/ecc . yunfu@ece.neu.edu or yyl@channing.harvard.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  17. Stratification and salt-wedge in the Seomjin river estuary under the idealized tidal influence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Jin Hwan; Jang, Dongmin; Kim, Yong Hoon

    2017-12-01

    Advection, straining, and vertical mixing play primary roles in the process of estuarine stratification. Estuaries can be classified as salt-wedge, partially-mixed or well-mixed depending on the vertical density structure determined by the balancing of advection, mixing and straining. In particular, straining plays a major role in the stratification of the estuarine water body along the estuarine channel. Also, the behavior of a salt wedge with a halocline shape in a stratified channel can be controlled by the competition between straining and mixing induced by buoyancy from the riverine source and tidal forcing. The present study uses Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) to show that straining and vertical mixing play major roles in controlling along-channel flow and stratification structures in the Seomjin river estuary (SRE) under idealized conditions. The Potential Energy Anomaly (PEA) dynamic equation quantifies the governing processes thereby enabling the determination of the stratification type. By comparing terms in the equation, we examined how the relative strengths of straining and mixing alter the stratification types in the SRE due to changes in river discharge and the depth resulting from dredging activities. SRE under idealized tidal forcing tends to be partially-mixed based on an analysis of the balance between terms and the vertical structure of salinity, and the morphological and hydrological change in SRE results in the shift of stratification type. While the depth affects the mixing, the freshwater discharge mainly controls the straining, and the balance between mixing and straining determines the final state of the stratification in an estuarine channel. As a result, the development and location of a salt wedge along the channel in a partially mixed and highly stratified condition is also determined by the ratio of straining to mixing. Finally, our findings confirm that the contributions of mixing and straining can be assessed by using the

  18. Understanding the Effect of Stratification on Vertical and Temporal Heterogenieties of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes Using a Long Term in-situ Monitoring Station

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, A.; Guala, M.; Hondzo, M.

    2017-12-01

    full depth, seasonal scale and quantify BV distribution throughout the water column under different stratification conditions, which can be important for mitigating risks of contamination of drinking water and recreational exposure.

  19. Conventional Risk Stratification Fails to Predict Progression of Succinate Dehydrogenase-deficient Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors: A Clinicopathologic Study of 76 Cases.

    PubMed

    Mason, Emily F; Hornick, Jason L

    2016-12-01

    Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) that lack kinase mutations often show loss of function of the succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) complex, due to germline mutation or promoter hypermethylation. SDH-deficient GISTs are exclusive to the stomach and have a multinodular architecture. It has been suggested that conventional risk stratification criteria may not predict outcome for this group of tumors, although data are limited. Here, we report the clinical, histologic, and genetic findings from a large cohort of 76 SDH-deficient GISTs diagnosed from 2005 to 2015, identified on the basis of histologic features or family history (45 female/31 male; mean age at diagnosis 32 y; range 11 to 71 y; 10 patients 50 y of age or above). Immunohistochemistry for SDHB and SDHA showed loss of SDHB in all cases and loss of SDHA in 28 (37%) tumors. Tumor size ranged from 1.9 to 22.5 cm; the primary tumor was multifocal in 29%. Mitotic rate ranged from 1 to 80 per 5 mm (median 5.5). Lymph node metastases were found at primary resection in 14 (18%) patients. Twenty-four patients (32%) had distant metastases at presentation, and 52 of 70 patients (74%) with follow-up developed distant metastases, most often to the liver, but also bone, lungs, breast, and brain. Applying conventional criteria (size and mitotic rate), 60% to 82% of patients with tumors ranging from very low risk to high risk for progressive disease developed distant metastases, regardless of the category. Carney-Stratakis syndrome and Carney triad were diagnosed in 6 and 8 patients, respectively. Of 35 patients tested, 26 harbored SDH mutations (11 SDHA, 8 SDHB, 6 SDHC, 1 SDHD). Follow-up data available for 70 patients ranged from 1 month to 39.3 years: 20 patients had no evidence of disease (mean 6.1 y), 32 were alive with metastases (mean 10.9 y), and 18 died of disease (mean 7.0 y after diagnosis). In summary, SDH-deficient GISTs account for approximately 8% of gastric GISTs and are associated with a high rate of

  20. The role of thermal stratification in tidal exchange at the mouth of San Diego Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chadwick, D. B.; Largier, J. L.; Cheng, R.T.; Aubrey, D.G.; Friedrichs, C.T.; Aubrey, D.G.; Friedrichs, C.T.

    1996-01-01

    We have examined, from an observational viewpoint, the role of thermal stratification in the tidal exchange process at the mouth of San Diego Bay. In this region, we found that both horizontal and vertical exchange processes appear to be active. The vertical exchange in this case was apparently due to the temperature difference between the'bay water and ocean water. We found that the structure of the outflow and the nature of the tidal exchange process both appear to be influenced by thermal stratification. The tidal outflow was found to lift-off tan the bottom during the initial and later stages of the ebb flow when barotropic forcing was weak. During the peak ebb flow, the mouth section was flooded, and the outflow extended to the bottom. As the ebb flow weakened, a period of two-way exchange occurred, with the surface layer flowing seaward, and the deep layer flowing into the bay. The structure of the tidal-residual flow and the residual transport of a measured tracer were strongly influenced by this vertical exchange. Exchange appeared to occur laterally as well, in a manner consistent with the tidal-pumping mechanism described by Stommel and Farmer [1952]. Tidal cycle variations in shear and stratification were characterized by strong vertical shear and breakdown of stratification during the ebb, and weak vertical shear and build-up of stratification on the flood. Evaluation of multiple tidal-cycles from time-series records of flow and temperature indicated that the vertical variations of the flow and stratification observed during the cross-sectional measurements are a general phenomenon during the summer. Together, these observations suggest that thermal stratification can play an important role in regulating the tidal exchange of low-inflow estuaries.

  1. Derivation and Validation of a Renal Risk Score for People With Type 2 Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Elley, C. Raina; Robinson, Tom; Moyes, Simon A.; Kenealy, Tim; Collins, John; Robinson, Elizabeth; Orr-Walker, Brandon; Drury, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Diabetes has become the leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Renal risk stratification could assist in earlier identification and targeted prevention. This study aimed to derive risk models to predict ESRD events in type 2 diabetes in primary care. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The nationwide derivation cohort included adults with type 2 diabetes from the New Zealand Diabetes Cohort Study initially assessed during 2000–2006 and followed until December 2010, excluding those with pre-existing ESRD. The outcome was fatal or nonfatal ESRD event (peritoneal dialysis or hemodialysis for ESRD, renal transplantation, or death from ESRD). Risk models were developed using Cox proportional hazards models, and their performance was assessed in a separate validation cohort. RESULTS The derivation cohort included 25,736 individuals followed for up to 11 years (180,497 person-years; 86% followed for ≥5 years). At baseline, mean age was 62 years, median diabetes duration 5 years, and median HbA1c 7.2% (55 mmol/mol); 37% had albuminuria; and median estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 77 mL/min/1.73 m2. There were 637 ESRD events (2.5%) during follow-up. Models that included sex, ethnicity, age, diabetes duration, albuminuria, serum creatinine, systolic blood pressure, HbA1c, smoking status, and previous cardiovascular disease status performed well with good discrimination and calibration in the derivation cohort and the validation cohort (n = 5,877) (C-statistics 0.89–0.92), improving predictive performance compared with previous models. CONCLUSIONS These 5-year renal risk models performed very well in two large primary care populations with type 2 diabetes. More accurate risk stratification could facilitate earlier intervention than using eGFR and/or albuminuria alone. PMID:23801726

  2. Cardiovascular risk assessment: addition of CKD and race to the Framingham equation

    PubMed Central

    Drawz, Paul E.; Baraniuk, Sarah; Davis, Barry R.; Brown, Clinton D.; Colon, Pedro J.; Cujyet, Aloysius B.; Dart, Richard A.; Graumlich, James F.; Henriquez, Mario A.; Moloo, Jamaluddin; Sakalayen, Mohammed G.; Simmons, Debra L.; Stanford, Carol; Sweeney, Mary Ellen; Wong, Nathan D.; Rahman, Mahboob

    2012-01-01

    Background/Aims The value of the Framingham equation in predicting cardiovascular risk in African Americans and patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether the addition of CKD and race to the Framingham equation improves risk stratification in hypertensive patients. Methods Participants in the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) were studied. Those randomized to doxazosin, age greater than 74 years, and those with a history of coronary heart disease (CHD) were excluded. Two risk stratification models were developed using Cox proportional hazards models in a two-thirds developmental sample. The first model included the traditional Framingham risk factors. The second model included the traditional risk factors plus CKD, defined by eGFR categories, and stratification by race (Black vs. Non-Black). The primary outcome was a composite of fatal CHD, nonfatal MI, coronary revascularization, and hospitalized angina. Results There were a total of 19,811 eligible subjects. In the validation cohort, there was no difference in C-statistics between the Framingham equation and the ALLHAT model including CKD and race. This was consistent across subgroups by race and gender and among those with CKD. One exception was among Non-Black women where the C-statistic was higher for the Framingham equation (0.68 vs 0.65, P=0.02). Additionally, net reclassification improvement was not significant for any subgroup based on race and gender, ranging from −5.5% to 4.4%. Conclusion The addition of CKD status and stratification by race does not improve risk prediction in high-risk hypertensive patients. PMID:23194494

  3. On electron bunching and stratification of glow discharges

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Golubovskii, Yuri B.; Kolobov, Vladimir I.; Nekuchaev, Vladimir O.

    2013-10-15

    Plasma stratification and excitation of ionization waves is one of the fundamental problems in gas discharge physics. Significant progress in this field is associated with the name of Lev Tsendin. He advocated the need for the kinetic approach to this problem contrary to the traditional hydrodynamic approach, introduced the idea of electron bunching in spatially periodic electric fields, and developed a theory of kinetic resonances for analysis of moving striations in rare gases. The present paper shows how Tsendin's ideas have been further developed and applied for understanding the nature of the well-known S-, P-, and R-striations observed in glowmore » discharges of inert gases at low pressures and currents. We review numerical solutions of a Fokker-Planck kinetic equation in spatially periodic electric fields under the effects of elastic and inelastic collisions of electrons with atoms. We illustrate the formation of kinetic resonances at specific field periods for different shapes of injected Electron Distribution Functions (EDF). Computer simulations illustrate how self-organization of the EDFs occurs under nonlocal conditions and how Gaussian-like peaks moving along resonance trajectories are formed in a certain range of discharge conditions. The calculated EDFs agree well with the experimentally measured EDFs for the S, P, and R striations in noble gases. We discuss how kinetic resonances affect dispersion characteristics of moving striations and mention some non-linear effects associated with glow discharge stratification. We propose further studies of stratification phenomena combining physical kinetics and non-linear physics.« less

  4. Vertical Stratification Engineering for Organic Bulk-Heterojunction Devices.

    PubMed

    Huang, Liqiang; Wang, Gang; Zhou, Weihua; Fu, Boyi; Cheng, Xiaofang; Zhang, Lifu; Yuan, Zhibo; Xiong, Sixing; Zhang, Lin; Xie, Yuanpeng; Zhang, Andong; Zhang, Youdi; Ma, Wei; Li, Weiwei; Zhou, Yinhua; Reichmanis, Elsa; Chen, Yiwang

    2018-05-22

    High-efficiency organic solar cells (OSCs) can be produced through optimization of component molecular design, coupled with interfacial engineering and control of active layer morphology. However, vertical stratification of the bulk-heterojunction (BHJ), a spontaneous activity that occurs during the drying process, remains an intricate problem yet to be solved. Routes toward regulating the vertical separation profile and evaluating the effects on the final device should be explored to further enhance the performance of OSCs. Herein, we establish a connection between the material surface energy, absorption, and vertical stratification, which can then be linked to photovoltaic conversion characteristics. Through assessing the performance of temporary, artificial vertically stratified layers created by the sequential casting of the individual components to form a multilayered structure, optimal vertical stratification can be achieved. Adjusting the surface energy offset between the substrate results in donor and acceptor stabilization of that stratified layer. Further, a trade-off between the photocurrent generated in the visible region and the amount of donor or acceptor in close proximity to the electrode was observed. Modification of the substrate surface energy was achieved using self-assembled small molecules (SASM), which, in turn, directly impacted the polymer donor to acceptor ratio at the interface. Using three different donor polymers in conjunction with two alternative acceptors in an inverted organic solar cell architecture, the concentration of polymer donor molecules at the ITO (indium tin oxide)/BHJ interface could be increased relative to the acceptor. Appropriate selection of SASM facilitated a synchronized enhancement in external quantum efficiency and power conversion efficiencies over 10.5%.

  5. New ventures require accurate risk analyses and adjustments.

    PubMed

    Eastaugh, S R

    2000-01-01

    For new business ventures to succeed, healthcare executives need to conduct robust risk analyses and develop new approaches to balance risk and return. Risk analysis involves examination of objective risks and harder-to-quantify subjective risks. Mathematical principles applied to investment portfolios also can be applied to a portfolio of departments or strategic business units within an organization. The ideal business investment would have a high expected return and a low standard deviation. Nonetheless, both conservative and speculative strategies should be considered in determining an organization's optimal service line and helping the organization manage risk.

  6. Photo stratification improves northwest timber volume estimates.

    Treesearch

    Colin D. MacLean

    1972-01-01

    Data from extensive timber inventories of 12 counties in western and central Washington were analyzed to test the relative efficiency of double sampling for stratification as a means of estimating total volume. Photo and field plots, when combined in a stratified sampling design, proved about twice as efficient as simple field sampling. Although some gains were made by...

  7. Recent biologic and genetic advances in neuroblastoma: Implications for diagnostic, risk stratification, and treatment strategies.

    PubMed

    Newman, Erika A; Nuchtern, Jed G

    2016-10-01

    Neuroblastoma is an embryonic cancer of neural crest cell lineage, accounting for up to 10% of all pediatric cancer. The clinical course is heterogeneous ranging from spontaneous regression in neonates to life-threatening metastatic disease in older children. Much of this clinical variance is thought to result from distinct pathologic characteristics that predict patient outcomes. Consequently, many research efforts have been focused on identifying the underlying biologic and genetic features of neuroblastoma tumors in order to more clearly define prognostic subgroups for treatment stratification. Recent technological advances have placed emphasis on the integration of genetic alterations and predictive biologic variables into targeted treatment approaches to improve patient survival outcomes. This review will focus on these recent advances and the implications they have on the diagnostic, staging, and treatment approaches in modern neuroblastoma clinical management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. The Lactate/Albumin Ratio: A Valuable Tool for Risk Stratification in Septic Patients Admitted to ICU.

    PubMed

    Lichtenauer, Michael; Wernly, Bernhard; Ohnewein, Bernhard; Franz, Marcus; Kabisch, Bjoern; Muessig, Johanna; Masyuk, Maryna; Lauten, Alexander; Schulze, Paul Christian; Hoppe, Uta C; Kelm, Malte; Jung, Christian

    2017-09-02

    The lactate/albumin ratio has been reported to be associated with mortality in pediatric patients with sepsis. We aimed to evaluate the lactate/albumin ratio for its prognostic relevance in a larger collective of critically ill (adult) patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). A total of 348 medical patients admitted to a German ICU for sepsis between 2004 and 2009 were included. Follow-up of patients was performed retrospectively between May 2013 and November 2013. The association of the lactate/albumin ratio (cut-off 0.15) and both in-hospital and post-discharge mortality was investigated. An optimal cut-off was calculated by means of Youden's index. The lactate/albumin ratio was elevated in non-survivors ( p < 0.001). Patients with an increased lactate/albumin ratio were of similar age, but clinically in a poorer condition and had more pronounced laboratory signs of multi-organ failure. An increased lactate/albumin ratio was associated with adverse in-hospital mortality. An optimal cut-off of 0.15 was calculated and was associated with adverse long-term outcome even after correction for APACHE2 and SAPS2. We matched 99 patients with a lactate/albumin ratio >0.15 to case-controls with a lactate/albumin ratio <0.15 corrected for APACHE2 scores: The group with a lactate/albumin ratio >0.15 evidenced adverse in-hospital outcome in a paired analysis with a difference of 27% (95%CI 10-43%; p < 0.01). Regarding long-term mortality, again, patients in the group with a lactate/albumin ratio >0.15 showed adverse outcomes ( p < 0.001). An increased lactate/albumin ratio was significantly associated with an adverse outcome in critically ill patients admitted to an ICU, even after correction for confounders. The lactate/albumin ratio might constitute an independent, readily available, and important parameter for risk stratification in the critically ill.

  9. Lake Stability and Winter-Spring Transitions: Decoupled Ice Duration and Winter Stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daly, J.; Dana, S.; Neal, B.

    2016-12-01

    Ice-out is an important historical record demonstrating the impact of warmer air temperatures on lake ice. To better understand regional differences in ice-out trends, to characterize the thermal dynamics of smaller mountain lakes, and to develop baseline data for Maine's high elevations landscapes, sub-hourly water temperatures have been collected in over a dozen of Maine's mountain lakes since 2010. Both surface water and hypolimnion temperature data are recorded year-round, facilitating the determination of ice-in, ice-out, and the duration of winter stratification. The multi-year record from sites across as 250 km transect allows us to compare spatial variability related to lake morphometry and location with inter-annual variability related to local weather. All of the study lakes are large enough to stratify during the summer and mix extensively during the fall. Most years, our data show that the onset of winter stratification is nearly synchronous across the study area and is associated with cold air temperatures. Winter stratification can begin days to weeks before ice-in; the timing of ice-in shows more variability, with both elevation and basin aspect influencing the timing. Ice-out shows both the anticipated spatial and interannual variability; some years there is strong coherence between locations while other years show high variability, possibly a function of differences in snowpack. Ice-out is not always immediately followed by the end of winter stratification, there is sometimes a lag of days to weeks before the lakes mix. If the warm temperatures that lead to ice-out are followed by calm days without significant wind, the surface of some lakes begins to warm quickly maintaining the density difference and prolonging winter stratification. The longer the lag time, the stronger the density difference becomes which may also result in a very brief period of mixing in the spring prior to set-up of summer stratification. This year's El Niño event resulted

  10. Robust dynamic myocardial perfusion CT deconvolution for accurate residue function estimation via adaptive-weighted tensor total variation regularization: a preclinical study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Dong; Gong, Changfei; Bian, Zhaoying; Huang, Jing; Zhang, Xinyu; Zhang, Hua; Lu, Lijun; Niu, Shanzhou; Zhang, Zhang; Liang, Zhengrong; Feng, Qianjin; Chen, Wufan; Ma, Jianhua

    2016-11-01

    Dynamic myocardial perfusion computed tomography (MPCT) is a promising technique for quick diagnosis and risk stratification of coronary artery disease. However, one major drawback of dynamic MPCT imaging is the heavy radiation dose to patients due to its dynamic image acquisition protocol. In this work, to address this issue, we present a robust dynamic MPCT deconvolution algorithm via adaptive-weighted tensor total variation (AwTTV) regularization for accurate residue function estimation with low-mA s data acquisitions. For simplicity, the presented method is termed ‘MPD-AwTTV’. More specifically, the gains of the AwTTV regularization over the original tensor total variation regularization are from the anisotropic edge property of the sequential MPCT images. To minimize the associative objective function we propose an efficient iterative optimization strategy with fast convergence rate in the framework of an iterative shrinkage/thresholding algorithm. We validate and evaluate the presented algorithm using both digital XCAT phantom and preclinical porcine data. The preliminary experimental results have demonstrated that the presented MPD-AwTTV deconvolution algorithm can achieve remarkable gains in noise-induced artifact suppression, edge detail preservation, and accurate flow-scaled residue function and MPHM estimation as compared with the other existing deconvolution algorithms in digital phantom studies, and similar gains can be obtained in the porcine data experiment.

  11. Dynamics of a vertical turbulent plume in a stratification typical of Greenland fjords: an idealized model of subglacial discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stenberg, Erik; Ezhova, Ekaterina; Cenedese, Claudia; Brandt, Luca

    2017-04-01

    We the report results of large eddy simulations of a turbulent buoyant plume in a configuration providing an idealized model of subglacial discharge from a submarine glacier in stratifications typical of Greenland Fjords. We neglect a horizontal momentum of the plume and assume that its influence on the plume dynamics is small and important only close to the source. Moreover, idealized models have considered the plume adjacent to the glacier as a half-conical plume (e.g., [1]). Thus, to compare the results for such plume with the classical plume theory, developed for free plumes entraining ambient fluid from all directions, it is convenient to add the second half-conical part and consider a free plume with double the total discharge as a model. Given the estimate of the total subglacial discharge for Helheim Glacier in Sermilik Fjord [2], we perform simulations with double the total discharge in order to investigate the dynamics of the flow in typical winter and summer stratifications in Greenland fjords [3]. The plume is discharged from a round source of various diameters. In winter, when the stratification is similar to an idealised two-layers case, turbulent entrainment and generation of internal waves by the plume top are in agreement with the theoretical and numerical results obtained for turbulent jets in a two-layer stratification. In summer, instead, the stratification is more complex and turbulent entrainment is significantly reduced. The subsurface layer in summer is characterized by a strong density gradient and the oscillating plume generates non-linear internal waves which are able to mix this layer even if the plume does not penetrate to the surface. The classical theory for the integral parameters of a turbulent plume in a homogeneous fluid gives accurate predictions of the plume parameters in the weakly stratified lower layer up to the pycnocline. [1] Mankoff, K. D., F. Straneo, C. Cenedese, S. B. Das, C. D. Richards, and H. Singh, 2016: Structure

  12. Exploring the color feature power for psoriasis risk stratification and classification: A data mining paradigm.

    PubMed

    Shrivastava, Vimal K; Londhe, Narendra D; Sonawane, Rajendra S; Suri, Jasjit S

    2015-10-01

    A large percentage of dermatologist׳s decision in psoriasis disease assessment is based on color. The current computer-aided diagnosis systems for psoriasis risk stratification and classification lack the vigor of color paradigm. The paper presents an automated psoriasis computer-aided diagnosis (pCAD) system for classification of psoriasis skin images into psoriatic lesion and healthy skin, which solves the two major challenges: (i) fulfills the color feature requirements and (ii) selects the powerful dominant color features while retaining high classification accuracy. Fourteen color spaces are discovered for psoriasis disease analysis leading to 86 color features. The pCAD system is implemented in a support vector-based machine learning framework where the offline image data set is used for computing machine learning offline color machine learning parameters. These are then used for transformation of the online color features to predict the class labels for healthy vs. diseased cases. The above paradigm uses principal component analysis for color feature selection of dominant features, keeping the original color feature unaltered. Using the cross-validation protocol, the above machine learning protocol is compared against the standalone grayscale features with 60 features and against the combined grayscale and color feature set of 146. Using a fixed data size of 540 images with equal number of healthy and diseased, 10 fold cross-validation protocol, and SVM of polynomial kernel of type two, pCAD system shows an accuracy of 99.94% with sensitivity and specificity of 99.93% and 99.96%. Using a varying data size protocol, the mean classification accuracies for color, grayscale, and combined scenarios are: 92.85%, 93.83% and 93.99%, respectively. The reliability of the system in these three scenarios are: 94.42%, 97.39% and 96.00%, respectively. We conclude that pCAD system using color space alone is compatible to grayscale space or combined color and grayscale

  13. Tidal asymmetries of velocity and stratification over a bathymetric depression in a tropical inlet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waterhouse, Amy F.; Valle-Levinson, Arnoldo; Morales Pérez, Rubén A.

    2012-10-01

    Observations of current velocity, sea surface elevation and vertical profiles of density were obtained in a tropical inlet to determine the effect of a bathymetric depression (hollow) on the tidal flows. Surveys measuring velocity profiles were conducted over a diurnal tidal cycle with mixed spring tides during dry and wet seasons. Depth-averaged tidal velocities during ebb and flood tides behaved according to Bernoulli dynamics, as expected. The dynamic balance of depth-averaged quantities in the along-channel direction was governed by along-channel advection and pressure gradients with baroclinic pressure gradients only being important during the wet season. The vertical structure of the along-channel flow during flood tides exhibited a mid-depth maximum with lateral shear enhanced during the dry season as a result of decreased vertical stratification. During ebb tides, along-channel velocities in the vicinity of the hollow were vertically sheared with a weak return flow at depth due to choking of the flow on the seaward slope of the hollow. The potential energy anomaly, a measure of the amount of energy required to fully mix the water column, showed two peaks in stratification associated with ebb tide and a third peak occurring at the beginning of flood. After the first mid-ebb peak in stratification, ebb flows were constricted on the seaward slope of the hollow resulting in a bottom return flow. The sinking of surface waters and enhanced mixing on the seaward slope of the hollow reduced the potential energy anomaly after maximum ebb. The third peak in stratification during early flood occurred as a result of denser water entering the inlet at mid-depth. This dense water mixed with ambient deep waters increasing the stratification. Lateral shear in the along-channel flow across the hollow allowed trapping of less dense water in the surface layers further increasing stratification.

  14. Influence of Lake Stratification Onset on Summer Surface Water Temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woolway, R. I.; Merchant, C. J.

    2016-12-01

    Summer lake surface water temperatures (LSSWT) are sensitive to climatic warming and have previously been shown to increase at a faster rate than surface air temperatures in some lakes, as a response to thermal stratification occurring earlier in spring. We explore this relationship using a combination of in situ, satellite derived, and simulated temperatures from 144 lakes. Our results demonstrate that LSSWTs of high-latitude and large deep lakes are particularly sensitive to changes in stratification onset and can be expected to display an amplified response to climatic changes in summer air temperature. Climatic modification of LSSWT has numerous consequences for water quality and lake ecosystems, so quantifying this amplified response is important.

  15. Progress towards personalized therapeutics: biologic- and risk-directed therapy for neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Gustafson, William Clay; Matthay, Katherine K

    2011-10-01

    Neuroblastoma, a tumor of the developing peripheral sympathetic nervous system, is the most common and deadly extracranial solid tumor of childhood. Risk-stratification and risk-adapted therapy play a large role in the modern treatment of neuroblastoma. Recently, through extensive international collaboration, new guidelines for risk stratification have emerged that will aid in international cooperative studies, as well as clarifying therapeutic options for patients. Current therapies for low- and intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have resulted in excellent prognoses for these risk strata, and current efforts are concentrated on chemotherapy reduction. By contrast, much more gradual progress has been made in improving survival for high-risk neuroblastoma patients, despite significant chemotherapy intensification. Current investigations focus on overcoming resistance by elucidating the molecular/genetic causes of neuroblastoma tumorigenesis and progression, with the aim of developing more effective biologically targeted therapies for this disease.

  16. Distribution of Cervical Lymph Node Metastases From Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Oropharynx in the Era of Risk Stratification Using Human Papillomavirus and Smoking Status

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Amsbaugh, Mark J., E-mail: mjamsb01@louisville.edu; Yusuf, Mehran; Cash, Elizabeth

    Purpose/Objective(s): To investigate the factors contributing to the clinical presentation of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) in the era of risk stratification using human papilloma virus (HPV) and smoking status. Methods and Materials: All patients with OPSCC presenting to our institutional multidisciplinary clinic from January 2009 to June 2015 were reviewed from a prospective database. The patients were grouped as being at low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk in the manner described by Ang et al. Variance in clinical presentation was examined using χ{sup 2}, Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney, and logistic regression analyses. Results: The rates of HPV/p16 positivity (P<.001), never-smoking (P=.016),more » and cervical lymph node metastases (P=.023) were significantly higher for patients with OPSCC of the tonsil, base of tongue (BOT), or vallecula subsites when compared with pharyngeal wall or palate subsites. Low-risk patients with tonsil, base of tongue, or vallecula primary tumors presented with nodal stage N2a at a much higher than expected frequency (P=.007), and high-risk patients presented with tumor stage T4 at a much higher than expected frequency (P=.003). Patients with BOT primary tumors who were never-smokers were less likely to have clinically involved ipsilateral neck disease than were former smokers (odds ratio 1.8; P=.038). The distribution of cervical lymph node metastases was not associated with HPV/p16 positivity, risk group, or subsite. When these data were compared with those in historical series, no significant differences were seen in the patterns of cervical lymph node metastases for patients with OPSCC. Conclusions: For patients with OPSCC differences in HPV status, smoking history and anatomic subsite were associated with differences in clinical presentation but not with distribution of cervical lymph node metastases. Historical series describing the patterns of cervical lymph node metastases in patients with OPSCC

  17. Distribution of Cervical Lymph Node Metastases From Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Oropharynx in the Era of Risk Stratification Using Human Papillomavirus and Smoking Status.

    PubMed

    Amsbaugh, Mark J; Yusuf, Mehran; Cash, Elizabeth; Silverman, Craig; Wilson, Elizabeth; Bumpous, Jeffrey; Potts, Kevin; Perez, Cesar; Bert, Robert; Redman, Rebecca; Dunlap, Neal

    2016-10-01

    To investigate the factors contributing to the clinical presentation of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) in the era of risk stratification using human papilloma virus (HPV) and smoking status. All patients with OPSCC presenting to our institutional multidisciplinary clinic from January 2009 to June 2015 were reviewed from a prospective database. The patients were grouped as being at low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk in the manner described by Ang et al. Variance in clinical presentation was examined using χ(2), Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney, and logistic regression analyses. The rates of HPV/p16 positivity (P<.001), never-smoking (P=.016), and cervical lymph node metastases (P=.023) were significantly higher for patients with OPSCC of the tonsil, base of tongue (BOT), or vallecula subsites when compared with pharyngeal wall or palate subsites. Low-risk patients with tonsil, base of tongue, or vallecula primary tumors presented with nodal stage N2a at a much higher than expected frequency (P=.007), and high-risk patients presented with tumor stage T4 at a much higher than expected frequency (P=.003). Patients with BOT primary tumors who were never-smokers were less likely to have clinically involved ipsilateral neck disease than were former smokers (odds ratio 1.8; P=.038). The distribution of cervical lymph node metastases was not associated with HPV/p16 positivity, risk group, or subsite. When these data were compared with those in historical series, no significant differences were seen in the patterns of cervical lymph node metastases for patients with OPSCC. For patients with OPSCC differences in HPV status, smoking history and anatomic subsite were associated with differences in clinical presentation but not with distribution of cervical lymph node metastases. Historical series describing the patterns of cervical lymph node metastases in patients with OPSCC remain clinically relevant. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Improving the Power of GWAS and Avoiding Confounding from Population Stratification with PC-Select

    PubMed Central

    Tucker, George; Price, Alkes L.; Berger, Bonnie

    2014-01-01

    Using a reduced subset of SNPs in a linear mixed model can improve power for genome-wide association studies, yet this can result in insufficient correction for population stratification. We propose a hybrid approach using principal components that does not inflate statistics in the presence of population stratification and improves power over standard linear mixed models. PMID:24788602

  19. Ion species stratification within strong shocks in two-ion plasmas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keenan, Brett D.; Simakov, Andrei N.; Taitano, William T.; Chacón, Luis

    2018-03-01

    Strong collisional shocks in multi-ion plasmas are featured in many environments, with Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) experiments being one prominent example. Recent work [Keenan et al., Phys. Rev. E 96, 053203 (2017)] answered in detail a number of outstanding questions concerning the kinetic structure of steady-state, planar plasma shocks, e.g., the shock width scaling by the Mach number, M. However, it did not discuss shock-driven ion-species stratification (e.g., relative concentration modification and temperature separation). These are important effects since many recent ICF experiments have evaded explanation by standard, single-fluid, radiation-hydrodynamic (rad-hydro) numerical simulations, and shock-driven fuel stratification likely contributes to this discrepancy. Employing the state-of-the-art Vlasov-Fokker-Planck code, iFP, along with multi-ion hydro simulations and semi-analytics, we quantify the ion stratification by planar shocks with the arbitrary Mach number and the relative species concentration for two-ion plasmas in terms of ion mass and charge ratios. In particular, for strong shocks, we find that the structure of the ion temperature separation has a nearly universal character across ion mass and charge ratios. Additionally, we find that the shock fronts are enriched with the lighter ion species and the enrichment scales as M4 for M ≫ 1.

  20. Post-contrast acute kidney injury. Part 2: risk stratification, role of hydration and other prophylactic measures, patients taking metformin and chronic dialysis patients : Recommendations for updated ESUR Contrast Medium Safety Committee guidelines.

    PubMed

    van der Molen, Aart J; Reimer, Peter; Dekkers, Ilona A; Bongartz, Georg; Bellin, Marie-France; Bertolotto, Michele; Clement, Olivier; Heinz-Peer, Gertraud; Stacul, Fulvio; Webb, Judith A W; Thomsen, Henrik S

    2018-07-01

    The Contrast Media Safety Committee (CMSC) of the European Society of Urogenital Radiology (ESUR) has updated its 2011 guidelines on the prevention of post-contrast acute kidney injury (PC-AKI). The results of the literature review and the recommendations based on it, which were used to prepare the new guidelines, are presented in two papers. AREAS COVERED IN PART 2: Topics reviewed include stratification of PC-AKI risk, the need to withdraw nephrotoxic medication, PC-AKI prophylaxis with hydration or drugs, the use of metformin in diabetic patients receiving contrast medium and the need to alter dialysis schedules in patients receiving contrast medium. • In CKD, hydration reduces the PC-AKI risk • Intravenous normal saline and intravenous sodium bicarbonate provide equally effective prophylaxis • No drugs have been consistently shown to reduce the risk of PC-AKI • Stop metformin from the time of contrast medium administration if eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m 2 • Dialysis schedules need not change when intravascular contrast medium is given.

  1. Update on risk stratification and treatment of newly diagnosed multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Kapoor, Prashant; Rajkumar, S Vincent

    2011-10-01

    Multiple myeloma is the second most common hematologic malignancy. Chromosomal aberrations are important prognostic determinants that influence the clinical decision-making in newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). Patients are considered high-risk if any of the following features are detected: hypodiploidy, deletion 13 by cytogenetics, t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20) and/or 17 p deletion. In the absence of these features patients are considered standard risk. Outside of trials, risk-adapted therapy in the transplant-eligible high-risk patients advocates use of bortezomib-based induction therapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) and bortezomib-based maintenance therapy. High-risk, transplant-ineligible patients should also utilize bortezomib as initial therapy since it is known to overcome the poor prognosis associated with some high-risk features. The goal of therapy in high-risk patients is to attain and maintain a state of complete remission as much as possible. In contrast, the standard-risk, transplant-eligible patients may be treated with either lenalidomide-dexamethasone or bortezomib-based therapy followed by ASCT. In such patients, ASCT can also be deferred until first relapse if the patients are tolerating initial therapy well. Lenalidomide maintenance therapy in the post-transplant setting in standard-risk patients is controversial and not recommended routinely. For transplant-ineligible standard-risk patients, multiple options exist, although in the absence direct comparisons, we prefer lenalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone over melphalan-based combinations. This review outlines evidence-based management approaches in NDMM, with a focus on risk-adapted therapy.

  2. Impact on Water Heater Performance of Heating Methods that Promote Tank Temperature Stratification

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gluesenkamp, Kyle R; BushPE, John D

    2016-01-01

    During heating of a water heater tank, the vertical temperature stratification of the water can be increased or decreased, depending on the method of heating. Methods that increase stratification during heating include (1) removing cold water from the tank bottom, heating it, and re-introducing it to the tank top at relatively low flow rate, (2) using a heat exchanger wrapped around the tank, through which heating fluid (with finite specific heat) flows from top to bottom, and (3) using an immersed heat element that is relatively high in the tank. Using such methods allows for improved heat pump water heatermore » (HPWH) cycle efficiencies when the heat pump can take advantage of the lower temperatures that exist lower in the tank, and accommodate the resulting glide. Transcritical cycles are especially well-suited to capitalize on this opportunity, and other HPWH configurations (that have been proposed elsewhere) may benefit as well. This work provides several stratification categories of heat pump water heater tank configurations relevant to their stratification potential. To illustrate key differences among categories, it also compiles available experimental data for (a) single pass pumped flow, (b) multi-pass pumped flow, and (c) top-down wrapped tank with transcritical refrigerant.« less

  3. Concurrent chart review provides more accurate documentation and increased calculated case mix index, severity of illness, and risk of mortality.

    PubMed

    Frazee, Richard C; Matejicka, Anthony V; Abernathy, Stephen W; Davis, Matthew; Isbell, Travis S; Regner, Justin L; Smith, Randall W; Jupiter, Daniel C; Papaconstantinou, Harry T

    2015-04-01

    Case mix index (CMI) is calculated to determine the relative value assigned to a Diagnosis-Related Group. Accurate documentation of patient complications and comorbidities and major complications and comorbidities changes CMI and can affect hospital reimbursement and future pay for performance metrics. Starting in 2010, a physician panel concurrently reviewed the documentation of the trauma/acute care surgeons. Clarifications of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services term-specific documentation were made by the panel, and the surgeon could incorporate or decline the clinical queries. A retrospective review of trauma/acute care inpatients was performed. The mean severity of illness, risk of mortality, and CMI from 2009 were compared with the 3 subsequent years. Mean length of stay and mean Injury Severity Score by year were listed as measures of patient acuity. Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA and t-test, with p < 0.05 for significance. Each year demonstrated an increase in severity of illness, risk of mortality, and CMI compared with baseline values (p < 0.05). Length of stay was not significantly different, reflecting similar patient populations throughout the study. Injury Severity Score decreased in 2011 and 2012 compared with 2009, reflecting a lower level of injury in the trauma population. A concurrent documentation review significantly increases severity of illness, risk of mortality, and CMI scores in a trauma/acute care service compared with pre-program levels. These changes reflect more accurate key word documentation rather than a change in patient acuity. The increased scores might impact hospital reimbursement and more accurately stratify outcomes measures for care providers. Copyright © 2015 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Efficient and sparse feature selection for biomedical text classification via the elastic net: Application to ICU risk stratification from nursing notes.

    PubMed

    Marafino, Ben J; Boscardin, W John; Dudley, R Adams

    2015-04-01

    Sparsity is often a desirable property of statistical models, and various feature selection methods exist so as to yield sparser and interpretable models. However, their application to biomedical text classification, particularly to mortality risk stratification among intensive care unit (ICU) patients, has not been thoroughly studied. To develop and characterize sparse classifiers based on the free text of nursing notes in order to predict ICU mortality risk and to discover text features most strongly associated with mortality. We selected nursing notes from the first 24h of ICU admission for 25,826 adult ICU patients from the MIMIC-II database. We then developed a pair of stochastic gradient descent-based classifiers with elastic-net regularization. We also studied the performance-sparsity tradeoffs of both classifiers as their regularization parameters were varied. The best-performing classifier achieved a 10-fold cross-validated AUC of 0.897 under the log loss function and full L2 regularization, while full L1 regularization used just 0.00025% of candidate input features and resulted in an AUC of 0.889. Using the log loss (range of AUCs 0.889-0.897) yielded better performance compared to the hinge loss (0.850-0.876), but the latter yielded even sparser models. Most features selected by both classifiers appear clinically relevant and correspond to predictors already present in existing ICU mortality models. The sparser classifiers were also able to discover a number of informative - albeit nonclinical - features. The elastic-net-regularized classifiers perform reasonably well and are capable of reducing the number of features required by over a thousandfold, with only a modest impact on performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Elevated liver fibrosis index FIB-4 is not reliable for HCC risk stratification in predominantly non-Asian CHB patients.

    PubMed

    Demir, Münevver; Grünewald, Friederike; Lang, Sonja; Schramm, Christoph; Bowe, Andrea; Mück, Vera; Kütting, Fabian; Goeser, Tobias; Steffen, Hans-Michael

    2016-09-01

    We aimed to validate the liver fibrosis index FIB-4 as a model for risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma development in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B infection seen at a tertiary referral center in Germany.We retrospectively analyzed 373 adult patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. Patient demographics, hepatitis B markers, antiviral treatment, laboratory parameters, results from liver imaging and histology were recorded. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to their FIB-4 levels and their hazard ratios for developing hepatocellular carcinoma were analyzed adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, alcohol consumption, and antiviral medication.Median follow-up was 8.7 years (range 1-21.3 years), 93% of patients were of non-Asian origin, and 64% were male. Compared with patients with a low FIB-4 (<1.25) patients with FIB-4 ≥1.25 showed a hazard ratio for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma of 3.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24-7.41) and an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.75 (95% CI: 0.64-4.74). Notably, 68% of patients with liver cirrhosis and 68% of those who developed HCC during observation had a low FIB-4 (<1.25).We could not confirm that a FIB-4 value ≥1.25 is a reliable clinical indicator for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B. Further studies in geographically and ethnically diverse populations are needed to prove its utility as a predictive tool.

  6. Seed flotation and germination of salt marsh plants: The effects of stratification, salinity, and/or inundation regime

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Elsey-Quirk, T.; Middleton, B.A.; Proffitt, C.E.

    2009-01-01

    We examined the effects of cold stratification and salinity on seed flotation of eight salt marsh species. Four of the eight species were tested for germination success under different stratification, salinity, and flooding conditions. Species were separated into two groups, four species received wet stratification and four dry stratification and fresh seeds of all species were tested for flotation and germination. Fresh seeds of seven out of eight species had flotation times independent of salinity, six of which had average flotation times of at least 50 d. Seeds of Spartina alterniflora and Spartina patens had the shortest flotation times, averaging 24 and 26 d, respectively. Following wet stratification, the flotation time of S. alterniflora seeds in higher salinity water (15 and 36 ppt) was reduced by over 75% and germination declined by more than 90%. Wet stratification reduced the flotation time of Distichlis spicata seeds in fresh water but increased seed germination from 2 to 16% in a fluctuating inundation regime. Fresh seeds of Iva frutescens and S. alternflora were capable of germination and therefore are non-dormant during dispersal. Fresh seeds of I. frutescens had similar germination to dry stratified seeds ranging 25-30%. Salinity reduced seed germination for all species except for S. alterniflora. A fluctuating inundation regime was important for seed germination of the low marsh species and for germination following cold stratification. The conditions that resulted in seeds sinking faster were similar to the conditions that resulted in higher germination for two of four species. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

  7. A novel nomogram accurately quantifies the risk of mortality in elderly patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

    PubMed

    Kiran, Ravi P; Attaluri, Vikram; Hammel, Jeff; Church, James

    2013-05-01

    The ability to accurately predict postoperative mortality is expected to improve preoperative decisions for elderly patients considered for colorectal surgery. Patients undergoing colorectal surgery were identified from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005-2007) and stratified as elderly (>70 years) and nonelderly (<70 years). Univariate analysis of preoperative risk factors and 30-day mortality and morbidity were analyzed on 70% of the population. A nomogram for mortality was created and tested on the remaining 30%. Of 30,900 colorectal cases, 10,750 were elderly (>70 years). Mortality increased steadily with age (0.5% every 5 years) and at a faster rate (1.2% every 5 years) after 70 years, which defined "elderly" in this study. Elderly (mean age: 78.4 years) and nonelderly patients (52.8 years) had mortality of 7.6% versus 2.0% and a morbidity of 32.8% versus 25.7%, respectively. Elderly patients had greater preoperative comorbidities including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (10.5% vs 3.8%), diabetes (18.7% vs 11.1%), and renal insufficiency (1.7% vs 1.3%). A multivariate model for 30-day mortality and nomogram were created. Increasing age was associated with mortality [age >70 years: odds ratio (OR) = 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-2.4); >85 years: OR = 4.3 (95% CI: 3.3-5.5)]. The nomogram accurately predicted mortality, including very high-risk (>50% mortality) with a concordant index for this model of 0.89. Colorectal surgery in elderly patients is associated with significantly higher mortality. This novel nomogram that predicts postoperative mortality may facilitate preoperative treatment decisions.

  8. Differentiated thyroid cancer in children: Heterogeneity of predictive risk factors.

    PubMed

    Russo, Marco; Malandrino, Pasqualino; Moleti, Mariacarla; Vermiglio, Francesco; D'Angelo, Antonio; La Rosa, Giuliana; Sapuppo, Giulia; Calaciura, Francesca; Regalbuto, Concetto; Belfiore, Antonino; Vigneri, Riccardo; Pellegriti, Gabriella

    2018-05-16

    To correlate clinical and pathological characteristics at diagnosis with patient long-term outcomes and to evaluate ongoing risk stratifications in a large series of paediatric differentiated thyroid cancers (DTC). Retrospective analysis of clinical and pathological prognostic factors of 124 paediatric patients with DTC (age at diagnosis <19 years) followed up for 10.4 ± 8.4 years. Patients with a follow-up >3 years (n = 104) were re-classified 18 months after surgery on the basis of their response to therapy (ongoing risk stratification). Most patients had a papillary histotype (96.0%), were older than 15 years (75.0%) and were diagnosed because of clinical local symptoms (63.7%). Persistent/recurrent disease was present in 31.5% of cases during follow-up, but at the last evaluation, only 12.9% had biochemical or structural disease. The presence of metastases in the lymph nodes of the lateral compartment (OR 3.2, 95% CI, 1.28-7.16, P = 0.01) was the only independent factor associated with recurrent/persistent disease during follow-up. At the last evaluation, biochemical/structural disease was associated with node metastases (N1a, N1b) by univariate but not multivariate analysis. Ongoing risk stratification compared to the initial risk classification method better identified patients with a lower probability of persistent/recurrent disease (NPV = 100%). In spite of the aggressive presentations at diagnosis, paediatric patients with DTC show an excellent response to treatment and often a favourable outcome. N1b status should be considered a strong predictor of persistent/recurrent disease which, as in adults, is better predicted by ongoing risk stratification. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. N-terminal fraction of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide versus clinical risk scores for prognostic stratification in chronic systolic heart failure.

    PubMed

    Arzilli, Chiara; Aimo, Alberto; Vergaro, Giuseppe; Ripoli, Andrea; Senni, Michele; Emdin, Michele; Passino, Claudio

    2018-05-01

    Background The Seattle heart failure model or the cardiac and comorbid conditions (3C-HF) scores may help define patient risk in heart failure. Direct comparisons between them or versus N-terminal fraction of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) have never been performed. Methods Data from consecutive patients with stable systolic heart failure and 3C-HF data were examined. A subgroup of patients had the Seattle heart failure model data available. The endpoints were one year all-cause or cardiovascular death. Results The population included 2023 patients, aged 68 ± 12 years, 75% were men. At the one year time-point, 198 deaths were recorded (10%), 124 of them (63%) from cardiovascular causes. While areas under the curve were not significantly different, NT-proBNP displayed better reclassification capability than the 3C-HF score for the prediction of one year all-cause and cardiovascular death. Adding NT-proBNP to the 3C-HF score resulted in a significant improvement in risk prediction. Among patients with Seattle heart failure model data available ( n = 798), the area under the curve values for all-cause and cardiovascular death were similar for the Seattle heart failure model score (0.790 and 0.820), NT-proBNP (0.783 and 0.803), and the 3C-HF score (0.770 and 0.800). The combination of the 3C-HF score and NT-proBNP displayed a similar prognostic performance to the Seattle heart failure model score for both endpoints. Adding NT-proBNP to the Seattle heart failure model score performed better than the Seattle heart failure model alone in terms of reclassification, but not discrimination. Conclusions Among systolic heart failure patients, NT-proBNP levels had better reclassification capability for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the 3C-HF score. The inclusion of NT-proBNP to the 3C-HF and Seattle heart failure model score resulted in significantly better risk stratification.

  10. Overheating instability of a thin conductor with respect to stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garanin, S. F.; Kuznetsov, S. D.

    2018-04-01

    We consider an overheating instability of a thin (compared to the skin depth) conductor with respect to stratification at the stage when its resistivity rises up to an electrical explosion. Temperature perturbations under such conditions are shown to grow in proportion to resistivity. In the model, when resistivity is proportional to temperature, perturbations grow in proportion to temperature and hence exhibit no relative growth. For a conductor with initial thickness perturbations, temperature perturbations grow in proportion to resistivity and current action integral, i.e., somewhat faster than perturbations in the problem of constant thickness conductors. Comparison of our results with simulations of the growth of stratification during electrical heating of foils in warm dense matter generation systems demonstrates their close agreement.

  11. Germination of dimorphic seeds of Suaeda aralocaspica in response to light and salinity conditions during and after cold stratification

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hong-Ling; Tian, Chang-Yan

    2017-01-01

    Cold stratification is a requirement for seed dormancy breaking in many species, and thus it is one of the important factors for the regulation of timing of germination. However, few studies have examined the influence of various environmental conditions during cold stratification on subsequent germination, and no study has compared such effects on the performance of dormant versus non-dormant seeds. Seeds of halophytes in the cold desert might experience different light and salinity conditions during and after cold stratification. As such, dimorphic seeds (non-dormant brown seeds and black seeds with non-deep physiological dormancy) of Suaeda aralocaspica were cold stratified under different light (12 h light–12 h darkness photoperiod or continuous darkness) or salinity (0, 200 or 1,000 mmol L-1 NaCl) conditions for 20 or 40 days. Then stratified seeds were incubated under different light or salinity conditions at daily (12/12 h) temperature regime of 10:25 °C for 20 days. For brown seeds, cold stratification was also part of the germination period. In contrast, almost no black seeds germinated during cold stratification. The longer the cold stratification, the better the subsequent germination of black seeds, regardless of light or salinity conditions. Light did not influence germination of brown seeds. Germination of cold-stratified black seeds was inhibited by darkness, especially when they were stratified in darkness. With an increase in salinity at the stage of cold stratification or germination, germination percentages of both seed morphs decreased. Combinational pre-treatments of cold stratification and salinity did not increase salt tolerance of dimorphic seeds in germination phase. Thus, light and salinity conditions during cold stratification partly interact with these conditions during germination stage and differentially affect germination of dimorphic seeds of S. aralocaspica. PMID:28828266

  12. The Social Stratification of the German VET System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Protsch, Paula; Solga, Heike

    2016-01-01

    Germany is widely known for its vocational education and training (VET) system and its dual apprenticeship system in particular. What is often overlooked, however, is the vertical stratification within the German VET system. This is the focus of this study. Our analysis shows that the VET system, like the German school system, is highly…

  13. Development and external validation of nomograms to predict the risk of skeletal metastasis at the time of diagnosis and skeletal metastasis-free survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Yang, Lin; Xia, Liangping; Wang, Yan; He, Shasha; Chen, Haiyang; Liang, Shaobo; Peng, Peijian; Hong, Shaodong; Chen, Yong

    2017-09-06

    The skeletal system is the most common site of distant metastasis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC); various prognostic factors have been reported for skeletal metastasis, though most studies have focused on a single factor. We aimed to establish nomograms to effectively predict skeletal metastasis at initial diagnosis (SMAD) and skeletal metastasis-free survival (SMFS) in NPC. A total of 2685 patients with NPC who received bone scintigraphy (BS) and/or 18F-deoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) and 2496 patients without skeletal metastasis were retrospectively assessed to develop individual nomograms for SMAD and SMFS. The models were validated externally using separate cohorts of 1329 and 1231 patients treated at two other institutions. Five independent prognostic factors were included in each nomogram. The SMAD nomogram had a significantly higher c-index than the TNM staging system (training cohort, P = 0.005; validation cohort, P < 0.001). The SMFS nomogram had significantly higher c-index values in the training and validation sets than the TNM staging system (P < 0.001 and P = 0.005, respectively). Three proposed risk stratification groups were created using the nomograms, and enabled significant discrimination of SMFS for each risk group. The prognostic nomograms established in this study enable accurate stratification of distinct risk groups for skeletal metastasis, which may improve counseling and facilitate individualized management of patients with NPC.

  14. Ion species stratification within strong shocks in two-ion plasmas

    DOE PAGES

    Keenan, Brett D.; Simakov, Andrei N.; Taitano, William T.; ...

    2018-03-01

    We report strong collisional shocks in multi-ion plasmas are featured in many environments, with Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) experiments being one prominent example. Recent work [Keenan et al., Phys. Rev. E 96, 053203 (2017)] answered in detail a number of outstanding questions concerning the kinetic structure of steady-state, planar plasma shocks, e.g., the shock width scaling by the Mach number, M. However, it did not discuss shock-driven ion-species stratification (e.g., relative concentration modification and temperature separation). These are important effects since many recent ICF experiments have evaded explanation by standard, single-fluid, radiation-hydrodynamic (rad-hydro) numerical simulations, and shock-driven fuel stratification likelymore » contributes to this discrepancy. Employing the state-of-the-art Vlasov-Fokker-Planck code, iFP, along with multi-ion hydro simulations and semi-analytics, we quantify the ion stratification by planar shocks with the arbitrary Mach number and the relative species concentration for two-ion plasmas in terms of ion mass and charge ratios. In particular, for strong shocks, we find that the structure of the ion temperature separation has a nearly universal character across ion mass and charge ratios. Lastly, we find that the shock fronts are enriched with the lighter ion species and the enrichment scales as M 4 for M»1.« less

  15. Ion species stratification within strong shocks in two-ion plasmas

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Keenan, Brett D.; Simakov, Andrei N.; Taitano, William T.

    We report strong collisional shocks in multi-ion plasmas are featured in many environments, with Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) experiments being one prominent example. Recent work [Keenan et al., Phys. Rev. E 96, 053203 (2017)] answered in detail a number of outstanding questions concerning the kinetic structure of steady-state, planar plasma shocks, e.g., the shock width scaling by the Mach number, M. However, it did not discuss shock-driven ion-species stratification (e.g., relative concentration modification and temperature separation). These are important effects since many recent ICF experiments have evaded explanation by standard, single-fluid, radiation-hydrodynamic (rad-hydro) numerical simulations, and shock-driven fuel stratification likelymore » contributes to this discrepancy. Employing the state-of-the-art Vlasov-Fokker-Planck code, iFP, along with multi-ion hydro simulations and semi-analytics, we quantify the ion stratification by planar shocks with the arbitrary Mach number and the relative species concentration for two-ion plasmas in terms of ion mass and charge ratios. In particular, for strong shocks, we find that the structure of the ion temperature separation has a nearly universal character across ion mass and charge ratios. Lastly, we find that the shock fronts are enriched with the lighter ion species and the enrichment scales as M 4 for M»1.« less

  16. Risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma incorporating revised IMWG diagnostic criteria.

    PubMed

    Lakshman, Arjun; Rajkumar, S Vincent; Buadi, Francis K; Binder, Moritz; Gertz, Morie A; Lacy, Martha Q; Dispenzieri, Angela; Dingli, David; Fonder, Amie L; Hayman, Suzanne R; Hobbs, Miriam A; Gonsalves, Wilson I; Hwa, Yi Lisa; Kapoor, Prashant; Leung, Nelson; Go, Ronald S; Lin, Yi; Kourelis, Taxiarchis V; Warsame, Rahma; Lust, John A; Russell, Stephen J; Zeldenrust, Steven R; Kyle, Robert A; Kumar, Shaji K

    2018-06-12

    In 2014, the International Myeloma Working Group reclassified patients with smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) and bone marrow-plasma cell percentage (BMPC%) ≥ 60%, or serum free light chain ratio (FLCr) ≥ 100 or >1 focal lesion on magnetic resonance imaging as multiple myeloma (MM). Predictors of progression in patients currently classified as SMM are not known. We identified 421 patients with SMM, diagnosed between 2003 and 2015. The median time to progression (TTP) was 57 months (CI, 45-72). BMPC% > 20% [hazard ratio (HR): 2.28 (CI, 1.63-3.20); p < 0.0001]; M-protein > 2g/dL [HR: 1.56 (CI, 1.11-2.20); p = 0.01], and FLCr > 20 [HR: 2.13 (CI, 1.55-2.93); p < 0.0001] independently predicted shorter TTP in multivariate analysis. Age and immunoparesis were not significant. We stratified patients into three groups: low risk (none of the three risk factors; n = 143); intermediate risk (one of the three risk factors; n = 121); and high risk (≥2 of the three risk factors; n = 153). The median TTP for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 110, 68, and 29 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). BMPC% > 20%, M-protein > 2 g/dL, and FLCr > 20 at diagnosis can be used to risk stratify patients with SMM. Patients with high-risk SMM need close follow-up and are candidates for clinical trials aiming to prevent progression.

  17. Urinary Proteomic Biomarkers for Diagnosis and Risk Stratification of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease: A Multicentric Study

    PubMed Central

    Kistler, Andreas D.; Serra, Andreas L.; Siwy, Justyna; Poster, Diane; Krauer, Fabienne; Torres, Vicente E.; Mrug, Michal; Grantham, Jared J.; Bae, Kyongtae T.; Bost, James E.; Mullen, William; Wüthrich, Rudolf P.; Mischak, Harald; Chapman, Arlene B.

    2013-01-01

    Treatment options for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) will likely become available in the near future, hence reliable diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for the disease are strongly needed. Here, we aimed to define urinary proteomic patterns in ADPKD patients, which aid diagnosis and risk stratification. By capillary electrophoresis online coupled to mass spectrometry (CE-MS), we compared the urinary peptidome of 41 ADPKD patients to 189 healthy controls and identified 657 peptides with significantly altered excretion, of which 209 could be sequenced using tandem mass spectrometry. A support-vector-machine based diagnostic biomarker model based on the 142 most consistent peptide markers achieved a diagnostic sensitivity of 84.5% and specificity of 94.2% in an independent validation cohort, consisting of 251 ADPKD patients from five different centers and 86 healthy controls. The proteomic alterations in ADPKD included, but were not limited to markers previously associated with acute kidney injury (AKI). The diagnostic biomarker model was highly specific for ADPKD when tested in a cohort consisting of 481 patients with a variety of renal and extrarenal diseases, including AKI. Similar to ultrasound, sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic score depended on patient age and genotype. We were furthermore able to identify biomarkers for disease severity and progression. A proteomic severity score was developed to predict height adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV) based on proteomic analysis of 134 ADPKD patients and showed a correlation of r = 0.415 (p<0.0001) with htTKV in an independent validation cohort consisting of 158 ADPKD patients. In conclusion, the performance of peptidomic biomarker scores is superior to any other biochemical markers of ADPKD and the proteomic biomarker patterns are a promising tool for prognostic evaluation of ADPKD. PMID:23326375

  18. Deep circulations under simple classes of stratification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Salby, Murry L.

    1989-01-01

    Deep circulations where the motion field is vertically aligned over one or more scale heights are studied under barotropic and equivalent barotropic stratifications. The study uses two-dimensional equations reduced from the three-dimensional primitive equations in spherical geometry. A mapping is established between the full primitive equations and general shallow water behavior and the correspondence between variables describing deep atmospheric motion and those of shallow water behavior is established.

  19. Effects of enhanced stratification on equatorward dynamo wave propagation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Käpylä, Petri J.; Mantere, Maarit J.; Cole, Elizabeth

    We present results from simulations of rotating magnetized turbulent convection in spherical wedge geometry representing parts of the latitudinal and longitudinal extents of a star. Here we consider a set of runs for which the density stratification is varied, keeping the Reynolds and Coriolis numbers at similar values. In the case of weak stratification, we find quasi-steady dynamo solutions for moderate rotation and oscillatory ones with poleward migration of activity belts for more rapid rotation. For stronger stratification, the growth rate tends to become smaller. Furthermore, a transition from quasi-steady to oscillatory dynamos is found as the Coriolis number ismore » increased, but now there is an equatorward migrating branch near the equator. The breakpoint where this happens corresponds to a rotation rate that is about three to seven times the solar value. The phase relation of the magnetic field is such that the toroidal field lags behind the radial field by about π/2, which can be explained by an oscillatory α{sup 2} dynamo caused by the sign change of the α-effect about the equator. We test the domain size dependence of our results for a rapidly rotating run with equatorward migration by varying the longitudinal extent of our wedge. The energy of the axisymmetric mean magnetic field decreases as the domain size increases and we find that an m = 1 mode is excited for a full 2π azimuthal extent, reminiscent of the field configurations deduced from observations of rapidly rotating late-type stars.« less

  20. The effect of stratification on premixed swirl-flame flashback by using porous center-body injection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCaslin, Andrew; Ranjan, Rakesh; Clemens, Noel

    2016-11-01

    Boundary layer flashback must be prevented in order to stably operate stationary gas turbines. One strategy to avoid flashback is to create equivalence-ratio stratification, such as by reducing the fuel/air ratio in the boundary layer below the flammability limit. Typically, stratification is achieved by using radially non-uniform fuel injection. The goal of the current study is to reduce the propensity of flashback in a premixed annular swirl combustor that uses a premix section with center-body. A porous metal center-body (10 micron pore size) is used to bleed air directly into the boundary layer and thus locally reduce the equivalence ratio. Planar laser-induced fluorescence imaging of anisole-seeded flow is carried out to assess the stratification in the flow. Time-resolved PIV and chemiluminescence imaging are used to investigate flashback at atmospheric pressure conditions. A comparative study between fully premixed and stratified flame flashback is conducted to determine how stratification influences flashback physics. This work was sponsored by the DOE NETL under Grant DEFC2611-FE0007107. This source of funding is gratefully acknowledged.

  1. Chromosome 17 alterations identify good-risk and poor-risk tumors independently of clinical factors in medulloblastoma

    PubMed Central

    McCabe, Martin G.; Bäcklund, L. Magnus; Leong, Hui Sun; Ichimura, Koichi; Collins, V. Peter

    2011-01-01

    Current risk stratification schemas for medulloblastoma, based on combinations of clinical variables and histotype, fail to accurately identify particularly good- and poor-risk tumors. Attempts have been made to improve discriminatory power by combining clinical variables with cytogenetic data. We report here a pooled analysis of all previous reports of chromosomal copy number related to survival data in medulloblastoma. We collated data from previous reports that explicitly quoted survival data and chromosomal copy number in medulloblastoma. We analyzed the relative prognostic significance of currently used clinical risk stratifiers and the chromosomal aberrations previously reported to correlate with survival. In the pooled dataset metastatic disease, incomplete tumor resection and severe anaplasia were associated with poor outcome, while young age at presentation was not prognostically significant. Of the chromosomal variables studied, isolated 17p loss and gain of 1q correlated with poor survival. Gain of 17q without associated loss of 17p showed a trend to improved outcome. The most commonly reported alteration, isodicentric chromosome 17, was not prognostically significant. Sequential multivariate models identified isolated 17p loss, isolated 17q gain, and 1q gain as independent prognostic factors. In a historical dataset, we have identified isolated 17p loss as a marker of poor outcome and 17q gain as a novel putative marker of good prognosis. Biological markers of poor-risk and good-risk tumors will be critical in stratifying treatment in future trials. Our findings should be prospectively validated independently in future clinical studies. PMID:21292688

  2. Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein and myocardial creatine kinase enable rapid risk stratification in normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Langer, Martin; Forkmann, Mathias; Richter, Utz; Tausche, Anne-Kathrin; Sveric, Krunoslav; Christoph, Marian; Ibrahim, Karim; Günther, Michael; Kolschmann, Steffen; Boscheri, Alessandra; Barthel, Peggy; Strasser, Ruth H; Wunderlich, Carsten

    2016-10-01

    Risk assessments of hemodynamically stable patients with pulmonary embolisms (PE) remain challenging. In this context heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP), creatine kinase isoenzyme MB (CK-MB), and troponin I (TnI) may hold prognostic utility for patients with pulmonary embolism. We included 161 consecutive normotensive (systolic blood pressure above 90 mm Hg) patients with confirmed PE to study the combined utility of echocardiographic signs of right ventricular dysfunction and several biomarkers (TnI, CK-MB, H-FABP). The primary endpoint was defined as death within 30 days after admission to the hospital. Elevated biomarkers were measured in 26 patients (16.1%) for HFABP, in 66 (41%) for TnI and in 41 (25.5%) for CK-MB. Echocardiography revealed right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) in 99 (61.5%) patients. Overall, 16 patients (9.9%) died within the study period. In the H-FABP positive group 15 (57.7%) patients died compared to 13 (19.7%) patients in the TnI positive group and 15 (37.5%) patients in the CK-MB positive group (H-FABP positive vs TnI positive patients, P< .001; H-FABP positive vs CK-MB positive patients P= .13; CK-MB positive vs TnI positive patients P= .07). All elevated biomarkers correlated with the primary endpoint with H-FABP being strongly, CK-MB intermediately and TnI weakly associated with short term death (H-FABP r= 0.701, P< .001; CK-MB r= 0.486, P< .001; TnI r= 0.272, P= .001). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a positive H-FABP test (OR 27.1, 95% CI 2.1-352.3, P= .001), elevated CK-MB levels (OR 5.3, 95% CI 1.3-23.3, P= .002) and a low systolic blood pressure on admission (OR 0.8, 95% CI 0.8-0.9, P< .001) emerged as independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Both H-FABP and CK-MB are associated with short term mortality in normotensive PE patients and could be advantageous for risk stratification in this intermediate risk group. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Classification accuracy for stratification with remotely sensed data

    Treesearch

    Raymond L. Czaplewski; Paul L. Patterson

    2003-01-01

    Tools are developed that help specify the classification accuracy required from remotely sensed data. These tools are applied during the planning stage of a sample survey that will use poststratification, prestratification with proportional allocation, or double sampling for stratification. Accuracy standards are developed in terms of an “error matrix,” which is...

  4. Accurate, noninvasive continuous monitoring of cardiac output by whole-body electrical bioimpedance.

    PubMed

    Cotter, Gad; Moshkovitz, Yaron; Kaluski, Edo; Cohen, Amram J; Miller, Hilton; Goor, Daniel; Vered, Zvi

    2004-04-01

    Cardiac output (CO) is measured but sparingly due to limitations in its measurement technique (ie, right-heart catheterization). Yet, in recent years it has been suggested that CO may be of value in the diagnosis, risk stratification, and treatment titration of cardiac patients, especially those with congestive heart failure (CHF). We examine the use of a new noninvasive, continuous whole-body bioimpedance system (NICaS; NI Medical; Hod-Hasharon, Israel) for measuring CO. The aim of the present study was to test the validity of this noninvasive cardiac output system/monitor (NICO) in a cohort of cardiac patients. Prospective, double-blind comparison of the NICO and thermodilution CO determinations. We enrolled 122 patients in three different groups: during cardiac catheterization (n = 40); before, during, and after coronary bypass surgery (n = 51); and while being treated for acute congestive heart failure (CHF) exacerbation (n = 31). MEASUREMENTS AND INTERVENTION: In all patients, CO measurements were obtained by two independent blinded operators. CO was measured by both techniques three times, and an average was determined for each time point. CO was measured at one time point in patients undergoing coronary catheterization; before, during, and after bypass surgery in patients undergoing coronary bypass surgery; and before and during vasodilator treatment in patients treated for acute heart failure. Overall, 418 paired CO measurements were obtained. The overall correlation between the NICO cardiac index (CI) and the thermodilution CI was r = 0.886, with a small bias (0.0009 +/- 0.684 L) [mean +/- 2 SD], and this finding was consistent within each group of patients. Thermodilution readings were 15% higher than NICO when CI was < 1.5 L/min/m(2), and 5% lower than NICO when CI was > 3 L/min/m(2). The NICO has also accurately detected CI changes during coronary bypass operation and vasodilator administration for acute CHF. The results of the present study indicate

  5. Evolution of South Atlantic density and chemical stratification across the last deglaciation

    PubMed Central

    Skinner, Luke C.; Peck, Victoria L.; Kender, Sev; Elderfield, Henry; Waelbroeck, Claire; Hodell, David A.

    2016-01-01

    Explanations of the glacial–interglacial variations in atmospheric pCO2 invoke a significant role for the deep ocean in the storage of CO2. Deep-ocean density stratification has been proposed as a mechanism to promote the storage of CO2 in the deep ocean during glacial times. A wealth of proxy data supports the presence of a “chemical divide” between intermediate and deep water in the glacial Atlantic Ocean, which indirectly points to an increase in deep-ocean density stratification. However, direct observational evidence of changes in the primary controls of ocean density stratification, i.e., temperature and salinity, remain scarce. Here, we use Mg/Ca-derived seawater temperature and salinity estimates determined from temperature-corrected δ18O measurements on the benthic foraminifer Uvigerina spp. from deep and intermediate water-depth marine sediment cores to reconstruct the changes in density of sub-Antarctic South Atlantic water masses over the last deglaciation (i.e., 22–2 ka before present). We find that a major breakdown in the physical density stratification significantly lags the breakdown of the deep-intermediate chemical divide, as indicated by the chemical tracers of benthic foraminifer δ13C and foraminifer/coral 14C. Our results indicate that chemical destratification likely resulted in the first rise in atmospheric pCO2, whereas the density destratification of the deep South Atlantic lags the second rise in atmospheric pCO2 during the late deglacial period. Our findings emphasize that the physical and chemical destratification of the ocean are not as tightly coupled as generally assumed. PMID:26729858

  6. Evolution of South Atlantic density and chemical stratification across the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Jenny; Gottschalk, Julia; Skinner, Luke C; Peck, Victoria L; Kender, Sev; Elderfield, Henry; Waelbroeck, Claire; Vázquez Riveiros, Natalia; Hodell, David A

    2016-01-19

    Explanations of the glacial-interglacial variations in atmospheric pCO2 invoke a significant role for the deep ocean in the storage of CO2. Deep-ocean density stratification has been proposed as a mechanism to promote the storage of CO2 in the deep ocean during glacial times. A wealth of proxy data supports the presence of a "chemical divide" between intermediate and deep water in the glacial Atlantic Ocean, which indirectly points to an increase in deep-ocean density stratification. However, direct observational evidence of changes in the primary controls of ocean density stratification, i.e., temperature and salinity, remain scarce. Here, we use Mg/Ca-derived seawater temperature and salinity estimates determined from temperature-corrected δ(18)O measurements on the benthic foraminifer Uvigerina spp. from deep and intermediate water-depth marine sediment cores to reconstruct the changes in density of sub-Antarctic South Atlantic water masses over the last deglaciation (i.e., 22-2 ka before present). We find that a major breakdown in the physical density stratification significantly lags the breakdown of the deep-intermediate chemical divide, as indicated by the chemical tracers of benthic foraminifer δ(13)C and foraminifer/coral (14)C. Our results indicate that chemical destratification likely resulted in the first rise in atmospheric pCO2, whereas the density destratification of the deep South Atlantic lags the second rise in atmospheric pCO2 during the late deglacial period. Our findings emphasize that the physical and chemical destratification of the ocean are not as tightly coupled as generally assumed.

  7. Fundamental Interactions in Gasoline Compression Ignition Engines with Fuel Stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolk, Benjamin Matthew

    Transportation accounted for 28% of the total U.S. energy demand in 2011, with 93% of U.S. transportation energy coming from petroleum. The large impact of the transportation sector on global climate change necessitates more-efficient, cleaner-burning internal combustion engine operating strategies. One such strategy that has received substantial research attention in the last decade is Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI). Although the efficiency and emissions benefits of HCCI are well established, practical limits on the operating range of HCCI engines have inhibited their application in consumer vehicles. One such limit is at high load, where the pressure rise rate in the combustion chamber becomes excessively large. Fuel stratification is a potential strategy for reducing the maximum pressure rise rate in HCCI engines. The aim is to introduce reactivity gradients through fuel stratification to promote sequential auto-ignition rather than a bulk-ignition, as in the homogeneous case. A gasoline-fueled compression ignition engine with fuel stratification is termed a Gasoline Compression Ignition (GCI) engine. Although a reasonable amount of experimental research has been performed for fuel stratification in GCI engines, a clear understanding of how the fundamental in-cylinder processes of fuel spray evaporation, mixing, and heat release contribute to the observed phenomena is lacking. Of particular interest is gasoline's pressure sensitive low-temperature chemistry and how it impacts the sequential auto-ignition of the stratified charge. In order to computationally study GCI with fuel stratification using three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and chemical kinetics, two reduced mechanisms have been developed. The reduced mechanisms were developed from a large, detailed mechanism with about 1400 species for a 4-component gasoline surrogate. The two versions of the reduced mechanism developed in this work are: (1) a 96-species version and (2

  8. Shifts in coastal Antarctic marine microbial communities during and after melt water-related surface stratification.

    PubMed

    Piquet, Anouk M-T; Bolhuis, Henk; Meredith, Michael P; Buma, Anita G J

    2011-06-01

    Antarctic coastal waters undergo major physical alterations during summer. Increased temperatures induce sea-ice melting and glacial melt water input, leading to strong stratification of the upper water column. We investigated the composition of micro-eukaryotic and bacterial communities in Ryder Bay, Antarctic Peninsula, during and after summertime melt water stratification, applying community fingerprinting (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis) and sequencing analysis of partial 18S and 16S rRNA genes. Community fingerprinting of the eukaryotic community revealed two major patterns, coinciding with a period of melt water stratification, followed by a period characterized by regular wind-induced breakdown of surface stratification. During the first stratified period, we observed depth-related differences in eukaryotic fingerprints while differences in bacterial fingerprints were weak. Wind-induced breakdown of the melt water layer caused a shift in the eukaryotic community from an Actinocyclus sp.- to a Thalassiosira sp.-dominated community. In addition, a distinct transition in the bacterial community was found, but with a few days' delay, suggesting a response to the changes in the eukaryotic community rather than to the mixing event itself. Sequence analysis revealed a shift from an Alpha- and Gammaproteobacteria to a Cytophaga-Flavobacterium-Bacteroides-dominated community under mixed conditions. Our results show that melt water stratification and the transition to nonstabilized Antarctic surface waters may have an impact not only on micro-eukaryotic but also bacterial community composition. © 2011 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Pharmacogenetic Risk Stratification in Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor-Treated Patients with Congestive Heart Failure: A Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Nelveg-Kristensen, Karl Emil; Busk Madsen, Majbritt; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Køber, Lars; Egfjord, Martin; Berg Rasmussen, Henrik; Riis Hansen, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Background Evidence for pharmacogenetic risk stratification of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) treatment is limited. Therefore, in a cohort of ACEI-treated patients with congestive heart failure (CHF), we investigated the predictive value of two pharmacogenetic scores that previously were found to predict ACEI efficacy in patients with ischemic heart disease and hypertension, respectively. Score A combined single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the angiotensin II receptor type 1 gene (rs275651 and rs5182) and the bradykinin receptor B1 gene (rs12050217). Score B combined SNPs of the angiotensin-converting enzyme gene (rs4343) and ABO blood group genes (rs495828 and rs8176746). Methods Danish patients with CHF enrolled in the previously reported Echocardiography and Heart Outcome Study were included. Subjects were genotyped and categorized according to pharmacogenetic scores A and B of ≤1, 2 and ≥3 each, and followed for up to 10 years. Difference in cumulative incidences of cardiovascular death and all-cause death were assessed by the cumulative incidence estimator. Survival was modeled by Cox proportional hazard analyses. Results We included 667 patients, of whom 80% were treated with ACEIs. Differences in cumulative incidences of cardiovascular death (P = 0.346 and P = 0.486) and all-cause death (P = 0.515 and P = 0.486) were not significant for score A and B, respectively. There was no difference in risk of cardiovascular death or all-cause death between subjects with score A ≤1 vs. 2 (HR 1.03 [95% CI 0.79–1.34] and HR 1.11 [95% CI 0.88–1.42]), score A ≤1 vs. ≥3 (HR 0.80 [95% CI 0.59–1.08] and HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.70–1.20]), score B ≤1 vs. 2 (HR 1.02 [95% CI 0.78–1.32] and HR 0.98 [95% CI 0.77–1.24]), and score B ≤1 vs. ≥3 (HR 1.03 [95% CI 0.75–1.41] and HR 1.05 [95% CI 0.79–1.40]), respectively. Conclusions We found no association between either of the analyzed pharmacogenetic scores and fatal outcomes in ACEI

  10. pyNBS: A Python implementation for network-based stratification of tumor mutations.

    PubMed

    Huang, Justin K; Jia, Tongqiu; Carlin, Daniel E; Ideker, Trey

    2018-03-28

    We present pyNBS: a modularized Python 2.7 implementation of the network-based stratification (NBS) algorithm for stratifying tumor somatic mutation profiles into molecularly and clinically relevant subtypes. In addition to release of the software, we benchmark its key parameters and provide a compact cancer reference network that increases the significance of tumor stratification using the NBS algorithm. The structure of the code exposes key steps of the algorithm to foster further collaborative development. The package, along with examples and data, can be downloaded and installed from the URL http://www.github.com/huangger/pyNBS/. jkh013@ucsd.edu.

  11. Cardiac Magnetic Resonance-Verified Myocardial Fibrosis in Chagas Disease: Clinical Correlates and Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Uellendahl, Marly; de Siqueira, Maria Eduarda Menezes; Calado, Eveline Barros; Kalil-Filho, Roberto; Sobral, Dário; Ribeiro, Clébia; Oliveira, Wilson; Martins, Silvia; Narula, Jagat; Rochitte, Carlos Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Background Chagas disease (CD) is an important cause of heart failure and mortality, mainly in Latin America. This study evaluated the morphological and functional characteristics of the heart as well the extent of myocardial fibrosis (MF) in patients with CD by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). The prognostic value of MF evaluated by myocardial-delayed enhancement (MDE) was compared with that via Rassi score. Methods This study assessed 39 patients divided into 2 groups: 28 asymptomatic patients as indeterminate form group (IND); and symptomatic patients as Chagas Heart Disease (CHD) group. All patients underwent CMR using the techniques of cine-MRI and MDE, and the amount of MF was compared with the Rassi score. Results Regarding the morphological and functional analysis, significant differences were observed between both groups (p < 0.001). Furthermore, there was a strong correlation between the extent of MF and the Rassi score (r = 0.76). Conclusions CMR is an important technique for evaluating patients with CD, stressing morphological and functional differences in all clinical presentations. The strong correlation with the Rassi score and the extent of MF detected by CMR emphasizes its role in the prognostic stratification of patients with CD. PMID:27982271

  12. The Lactate/Albumin Ratio: A Valuable Tool for Risk Stratification in Septic Patients Admitted to ICU

    PubMed Central

    Lichtenauer, Michael; Wernly, Bernhard; Ohnewein, Bernhard; Kabisch, Bjoern; Masyuk, Maryna; Lauten, Alexander; Schulze, Paul Christian; Hoppe, Uta C.; Kelm, Malte; Jung, Christian

    2017-01-01

    The lactate/albumin ratio has been reported to be associated with mortality in pediatric patients with sepsis. We aimed to evaluate the lactate/albumin ratio for its prognostic relevance in a larger collective of critically ill (adult) patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). A total of 348 medical patients admitted to a German ICU for sepsis between 2004 and 2009 were included. Follow-up of patients was performed retrospectively between May 2013 and November 2013. The association of the lactate/albumin ratio (cut-off 0.15) and both in-hospital and post-discharge mortality was investigated. An optimal cut-off was calculated by means of Youden’s index. The lactate/albumin ratio was elevated in non-survivors (p < 0.001). Patients with an increased lactate/albumin ratio were of similar age, but clinically in a poorer condition and had more pronounced laboratory signs of multi-organ failure. An increased lactate/albumin ratio was associated with adverse in-hospital mortality. An optimal cut-off of 0.15 was calculated and was associated with adverse long-term outcome even after correction for APACHE2 and SAPS2. We matched 99 patients with a lactate/albumin ratio >0.15 to case-controls with a lactate/albumin ratio <0.15 corrected for APACHE2 scores: The group with a lactate/albumin ratio >0.15 evidenced adverse in-hospital outcome in a paired analysis with a difference of 27% (95%CI 10–43%; p < 0.01). Regarding long-term mortality, again, patients in the group with a lactate/albumin ratio >0.15 showed adverse outcomes (p < 0.001). An increased lactate/albumin ratio was significantly associated with an adverse outcome in critically ill patients admitted to an ICU, even after correction for confounders. The lactate/albumin ratio might constitute an independent, readily available, and important parameter for risk stratification in the critically ill. PMID:28869492

  13. Introducing Social Stratification and Inequality: An Active Learning Technique.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCammon, Lucy

    1999-01-01

    Summarizes literature on techniques for teaching social stratification. Describes the three parts of an exercise that enables students to understand economic and political inequality: students are given a family scenario, create household budgets, and finally rework the national budget with their family scenario groups. Discusses student…

  14. Risk Factors and Risk Stratification for Adverse Obstetrical Outcomes After Appendectomy or Cholecystectomy During Pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Sachs, Adam; Guglielminotti, Jean; Miller, Russell; Landau, Ruth; Smiley, Richard; Li, Guohua

    2017-05-01

    Identification of risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy is necessary for evidence-based risk reduction and adequate patient counseling. To identify risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy and stratify the risk of such outcomes. A cohort study was conducted using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a nationally representative sample of patients discharged from community hospitals in the United States, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2012. Multivariable analysis of risk factors for adverse obstetric outcomes was performed for 19 926 women undergoing appendectomy or cholecystectomy during pregnancy and a scoring system for such risk factors was developed. Data analysis was conducted from January 1, 2015, to July 31, 2016. A composite measure including 7 adverse obstetrical outcomes throughout pregnancy and occurring before hospital discharge. Of the 19 926 women (mean [SD] age, 26 [6] years) in the study, 1018 adverse obstetrical events were recorded in 953 pregnant women (4.8%). The 3 most frequent adverse events were preterm delivery (360 [35.4%]), preterm labor without preterm delivery (269 [26.4%]), and miscarriage (262 [25.7%]). The risk factors associated most strongly with an adverse obstetrical outcome included cervical incompetence (adjusted odds ratio, 24.29; 95% CI, 7.48-78.81), preterm labor during current pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio, 18.34; 95% CI, 4.95-67.96), vaginitis or vulvovaginitis (adjusted odds ratio, 5.17; 95% CI, 2.19-12.23), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.39; 95% CI, 2.08-5.51). A scoring system based on statistically significant variables classified the study sample into 3 risk groups corresponding to predicted probabilities of adverse obstetrical outcomes of 2.5% (≤4 points), 8.2% (5-8 points), and 21.8% (≥9 points). Approximately 5% of women experience adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy

  15. Risk stratification by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing improves outcomes following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery: a cohort study.

    PubMed

    Goodyear, Stephen J; Yow, Heng; Saedon, Mahmud; Shakespeare, Joanna; Hill, Christopher E; Watson, Duncan; Marshall, Colette; Mahmood, Asif; Higman, Daniel; Imray, Christopher He

    2013-05-19

    In 2009, the NHS evidence adoption center and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) published a review of the use of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). They recommended the development of a risk-assessment tool to help identify AAA patients with greater or lesser risk of operative mortality and to contribute to mortality prediction.A low anaerobic threshold (AT), which is a reliable, objective measure of pre-operative cardiorespiratory fitness, as determined by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is associated with poor surgical outcomes for major abdominal surgery. We aimed to assess the impact of a CPET-based risk-stratification strategy upon perioperative mortality, length of stay and non-operative costs for elective (open and endovascular) infra-renal AAA patients. A retrospective cohort study was undertaken. Pre-operative CPET-based selection for elective surgical intervention was introduced in 2007. An anonymized cohort of 230 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2007 to 2011) was studied. A historical control group of 128 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2003 to 2007) was identified for comparison.Comparative analysis of demographic and outcome data for CPET-pass (AT ≥ 11 ml/kg/min), CPET-fail (AT < 11 ml/kg/min) and CPET-submaximal (no AT generated) subgroups with control subjects was performed. Primary outcomes included 30-day mortality, survival and length of stay (LOS); secondary outcomes were non-operative inpatient costs. Of 230 subjects, 188 underwent CPET: CPET-pass n = 131, CPET-fail n = 35 and CPET-submaximal n = 22. When compared to the controls, CPET-pass patients exhibited reduced median total LOS (10 vs 13 days for open surgery, n = 74, P < 0.01 and 4 vs 6 days for EVAR, n = 29, P < 0.05), intensive therapy unit requirement (3 vs 4 days for open repair only, P < 0.001), non-operative costs (£5,387 vs £9,634 for open repair, P < 0.001) and perioperative

  16. Risk stratification by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing improves outcomes following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery: a cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In 2009, the NHS evidence adoption center and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) published a review of the use of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). They recommended the development of a risk-assessment tool to help identify AAA patients with greater or lesser risk of operative mortality and to contribute to mortality prediction. A low anaerobic threshold (AT), which is a reliable, objective measure of pre-operative cardiorespiratory fitness, as determined by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is associated with poor surgical outcomes for major abdominal surgery. We aimed to assess the impact of a CPET-based risk-stratification strategy upon perioperative mortality, length of stay and non-operative costs for elective (open and endovascular) infra-renal AAA patients. Methods A retrospective cohort study was undertaken. Pre-operative CPET-based selection for elective surgical intervention was introduced in 2007. An anonymized cohort of 230 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2007 to 2011) was studied. A historical control group of 128 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2003 to 2007) was identified for comparison. Comparative analysis of demographic and outcome data for CPET-pass (AT ≥ 11 ml/kg/min), CPET-fail (AT < 11 ml/kg/min) and CPET-submaximal (no AT generated) subgroups with control subjects was performed. Primary outcomes included 30-day mortality, survival and length of stay (LOS); secondary outcomes were non-operative inpatient costs. Results Of 230 subjects, 188 underwent CPET: CPET-pass n = 131, CPET-fail n = 35 and CPET-submaximal n = 22. When compared to the controls, CPET-pass patients exhibited reduced median total LOS (10 vs 13 days for open surgery, n = 74, P < 0.01 and 4 vs 6 days for EVAR, n = 29, P < 0.05), intensive therapy unit requirement (3 vs 4 days for open repair only, P < 0.001), non-operative costs (£5,387 vs £9,634 for open repair, P < 0

  17. Authorial and institutional stratification in open access publishing: the case of global health research.

    PubMed

    Siler, Kyle; Haustein, Stefanie; Smith, Elise; Larivière, Vincent; Alperin, Juan Pablo

    2018-01-01

    Using a database of recent articles published in the field of Global Health research, we examine institutional sources of stratification in publishing access outcomes. Traditionally, the focus on inequality in scientific publishing has focused on prestige hierarchies in established print journals. This project examines stratification in contemporary publishing with a particular focus on subscription vs. various Open Access (OA) publishing options. Findings show that authors working at lower-ranked universities are more likely to publish in closed/paywalled outlets, and less likely to choose outlets that involve some sort of Article Processing Charge (APCs; gold or hybrid OA). We also analyze institutional differences and stratification in the APC costs paid in various journals. Authors affiliated with higher-ranked institutions, as well as hospitals and non-profit organizations pay relatively higher APCs for gold and hybrid OA publications. Results suggest that authors affiliated with high-ranked universities and well-funded institutions tend to have more resources to choose pay options with publishing. Our research suggests new professional hierarchies developing in contemporary publishing, where various OA publishing options are becoming increasingly prominent. Just as there is stratification in institutional representation between different types of publishing access, there is also inequality within access types.

  18. Authorial and institutional stratification in open access publishing: the case of global health research

    PubMed Central

    Haustein, Stefanie; Smith, Elise; Larivière, Vincent; Alperin, Juan Pablo

    2018-01-01

    Using a database of recent articles published in the field of Global Health research, we examine institutional sources of stratification in publishing access outcomes. Traditionally, the focus on inequality in scientific publishing has focused on prestige hierarchies in established print journals. This project examines stratification in contemporary publishing with a particular focus on subscription vs. various Open Access (OA) publishing options. Findings show that authors working at lower-ranked universities are more likely to publish in closed/paywalled outlets, and less likely to choose outlets that involve some sort of Article Processing Charge (APCs; gold or hybrid OA). We also analyze institutional differences and stratification in the APC costs paid in various journals. Authors affiliated with higher-ranked institutions, as well as hospitals and non-profit organizations pay relatively higher APCs for gold and hybrid OA publications. Results suggest that authors affiliated with high-ranked universities and well-funded institutions tend to have more resources to choose pay options with publishing. Our research suggests new professional hierarchies developing in contemporary publishing, where various OA publishing options are becoming increasingly prominent. Just as there is stratification in institutional representation between different types of publishing access, there is also inequality within access types. PMID:29479492

  19. Thermal stratification hinders gyrotactic micro-organism rising in free-surface turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lovecchio, Salvatore; Zonta, Francesco; Marchioli, Cristian; Soldati, Alfredo

    2017-05-01

    Thermal stratification in water bodies influences the exchange of heat, momentum, and chemical species across the air-water interface by modifying the sub-surface turbulence characteristics. Turbulence modifications may in turn prevent small motile algae (phytoplankton, in particular) from reaching the heated surface. We examine how different regimes of stable thermal stratification affect the motion of these microscopic organisms (modelled as gyrotactic self-propelling cells) in a free-surface turbulent channel flow. This archetypal setup mimics an environmentally plausible situation that can be found in lakes and oceans. Results from direct numerical simulations of turbulence coupled with Lagrangian tracking reveal that rising of bottom-heavy self-propelling cells depends strongly on the strength of stratification, especially near the thermocline where high temperature and velocity gradients occur: Here hydrodynamic shear may disrupt directional cell motility and hamper near-surface accumulation. For all gyrotactic re-orientation times considered in this study (spanning two orders of magnitude), we observe a reduction of the cell rising speed and temporary confinement under the thermocline: If re-orientation is fast, cells eventually trespass the thermocline within the simulated time span; if re-orientation is slow, confinement lasts much longer because cells align in the streamwise direction and their vertical swimming is practically annihilated.

  20. Elevated liver fibrosis index FIB-4 is not reliable for HCC risk stratification in predominantly non-Asian CHB patients

    PubMed Central

    Demir, Münevver; Grünewald, Friederike; Lang, Sonja; Schramm, Christoph; Bowe, Andrea; Mück, Vera; Kütting, Fabian; Goeser, Tobias; Steffen, Hans-Michael

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We aimed to validate the liver fibrosis index FIB-4 as a model for risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma development in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B infection seen at a tertiary referral center in Germany. We retrospectively analyzed 373 adult patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. Patient demographics, hepatitis B markers, antiviral treatment, laboratory parameters, results from liver imaging and histology were recorded. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to their FIB-4 levels and their hazard ratios for developing hepatocellular carcinoma were analyzed adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, alcohol consumption, and antiviral medication. Median follow-up was 8.7 years (range 1–21.3 years), 93% of patients were of non-Asian origin, and 64% were male. Compared with patients with a low FIB-4 (<1.25) patients with FIB-4 ≥1.25 showed a hazard ratio for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma of 3.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24–7.41) and an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.75 (95% CI: 0.64–4.74). Notably, 68% of patients with liver cirrhosis and 68% of those who developed HCC during observation had a low FIB-4 (<1.25). We could not confirm that a FIB-4 value ≥1.25 is a reliable clinical indicator for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B. Further studies in geographically and ethnically diverse populations are needed to prove its utility as a predictive tool. PMID:27661015

  1. Stratification of centrifuged amoeba nuclei investigated by electron microscopy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Breyer, E. P.; Daniels, E. W.

    1968-01-01

    Study establishes a relationship between radioresistance and the nucleolar stratification characteristics of various amoeba species. Two species of fresh water amoeba are studied with the electron microscope. The report discusses the nature of nucleolar layers and their possible relationship to the differences in radiosensitivity of the two amoeba species.

  2. Risk Factors and Risk Stratification for Adverse Obstetrical Outcomes After Appendectomy or Cholecystectomy During Pregnancy

    PubMed Central

    Guglielminotti, Jean; Miller, Russell; Landau, Ruth; Smiley, Richard; Li, Guohua

    2017-01-01

    Importance Identification of risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy is necessary for evidence-based risk reduction and adequate patient counseling. Objectives To identify risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy and stratify the risk of such outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants A cohort study was conducted using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a nationally representative sample of patients discharged from community hospitals in the United States, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2012. Multivariable analysis of risk factors for adverse obstetric outcomes was performed for 19 926 women undergoing appendectomy or cholecystectomy during pregnancy and a scoring system for such risk factors was developed. Data analysis was conducted from January 1, 2015, to July 31, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures A composite measure including 7 adverse obstetrical outcomes throughout pregnancy and occurring before hospital discharge. Results Of the 19 926 women (mean [SD] age, 26 [6] years) in the study, 1018 adverse obstetrical events were recorded in 953 pregnant women (4.8%). The 3 most frequent adverse events were preterm delivery (360 [35.4%]), preterm labor without preterm delivery (269 [26.4%]), and miscarriage (262 [25.7%]). The risk factors associated most strongly with an adverse obstetrical outcome included cervical incompetence (adjusted odds ratio, 24.29; 95% CI, 7.48-78.81), preterm labor during current pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio, 18.34; 95% CI, 4.95-67.96), vaginitis or vulvovaginitis (adjusted odds ratio, 5.17; 95% CI, 2.19-12.23), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.39; 95% CI, 2.08-5.51). A scoring system based on statistically significant variables classified the study sample into 3 risk groups corresponding to predicted probabilities of adverse obstetrical outcomes of 2.5% (≤4 points), 8.2% (5-8 points), and 21.8% (≥9

  3. Epithelial stratification and placode invagination are separable functions in early morphogenesis of the molar tooth

    PubMed Central

    Li, Jingjing; Chatzeli, Lemonia; Panousopoulou, Eleni; Tucker, Abigail S.; Green, Jeremy B. A.

    2016-01-01

    Ectodermal organs, which include teeth, hair follicles, mammary ducts, and glands such as sweat, mucous and sebaceous glands, are initiated in development as placodes, which are epithelial thickenings that invaginate and bud into the underlying mesenchyme. These placodes are stratified into a basal and several suprabasal layers of cells. The mechanisms driving stratification and invagination are poorly understood. Using the mouse molar tooth as a model for ectodermal organ morphogenesis, we show here that vertical, stratifying cell divisions are enriched in the forming placode and that stratification is cell division dependent. Using inhibitor and gain-of-function experiments, we show that FGF signalling is necessary and sufficient for stratification but not invagination as such. We show that, instead, Shh signalling is necessary for, and promotes, invagination once suprabasal tissue is generated. Shh-dependent suprabasal cell shape suggests convergent migration and intercalation, potentially accounting for post-stratification placode invagination to bud stage. We present a model in which FGF generates suprabasal tissue by asymmetric cell division, while Shh triggers cell rearrangement in this tissue to drive invagination all the way to bud formation. PMID:26755699

  4. Benefit-risk perception of natalizumab therapy in neurologists and a large cohort of multiple sclerosis patients.

    PubMed

    Heesen, Christoph; Kleiter, Ingo; Meuth, Sven G; Krämer, Julia; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2017-05-15

    Natalizumab (NAT) is associated with the risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Risk stratification algorithms have been developed, however, without detectable reduction of PML incidence. To evaluate to which extent patients and physicians understand and accept risks associated with NAT treatment. Prospective observational cohort study in German MS centers (n=73) among NAT-treated MS patients (n=801) and their neurologists (n=99). Patients included in this study had mean disease duration of 10.2years and a mean NAT treatment duration of 24months. More than 90% of patients and physicians voted for shared decision making or an informed choice decision making approach. Patients and physicians perceived a similar threat from MS as serious disease and both overestimated treatment benefits from NAT based on trial data. Men perceived MS more severe than women and perception of seriousness increased with age in both groups and in patients as well with increasing disability. Although patients evaluated their PML risk higher, their risk acceptance was significantly higher than of their neurologists. Risk stratification knowledge was good among neurologists and significantly lower among patients. While patients and physicians seem to have realistic risk perception of PML and knowledge of risk stratification concepts, the threat of MS and the perception of treatment benefits may explain the ongoing high acceptance of PML risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Coronary risk stratification of patients undergoing surgery for valvular heart disease.

    PubMed

    Hasselbalch, Rasmus Bo; Engstrøm, Thomas; Pries-Heje, Mia; Heitmann, Merete; Pedersen, Frants; Schou, Morten; Mickley, Hans; Elming, Hanne; Steffensen, Rolf; Køber, Lars; Iversen, Kasper

    2017-01-15

    Multislice computed tomography (MSCT) is a non-invasive, less expensive, low-radiation alternative to coronary angiography (CAG) prior to valvular heart surgery. MSCT has a high negative predictive value for coronary artery disease (CAD) but previous studies of patients with valvular disease have shown that MSCT, as the primary evaluation technique, lead to re-evaluation with CAG in about a third of cases and it is therefore not recommended. If a subgroup of patients with low- to intermediate risk of CAD could be identified and examined with MSCT, it could be cost-effective, reduce radiation and the risk of complications associated with CAG. The study cohort was derived from a national registry of patients undergoing CAG prior to valvular heart surgery. Using logistic regression, we identified significant risk factors for CAD and developed a risk score (CT-valve score). The score was validated on a similar cohort of patients from another registry. The study cohort consisted of 2221 patients, 521 (23.5%) had CAD. The validation cohort consisted of 2575 patients, 771 (29.9%) had CAD. The identified risk factors were male sex, age, smoking, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, aortic valve disease, extracardiac arteriopathy, ejection fraction <30% and diabetes mellitus. CT-valve score could identify a third of the population with a risk about 10%. A score based on risk factors of CAD can identify patients that might benefit from using MSCT as a gatekeeper to CAG prior to heart valve surgery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The Effect of an Isogrid on Cryogenic Propellant Behavior and Thermal Stratification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oliveira, Justin; Kirk, Daniel R.; Chintalapati, Sunil; Schallhorn, Paul A.; Piquero, Jorge L.; Campbell, Mike; Chase, Sukhdeep

    2007-01-01

    All models for thermal stratification available in the presentation are derived using smooth, flat plate laminar and turbulent boundary layer models. This study examines the effect of isogrid (roughness elements) on the surface of internal tank walls to mimic the effects of weight-saving isogrid, which is located on the inside of many rocket propellant tanks. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to study the momentum and thermal boundary layer thickness for free convection flows over a wall with generic roughness elements. This presentation makes no mention of actual isogrid sizes or of any specific tank geometry. The magnitude of thermal stratification is compared for smooth and isogrid-lined walls.

  7. Noninvasive Cardiovascular Risk Assessment of the Asymptomatic Diabetic Patient

    PubMed Central

    Budoff, Matthew J.; Raggi, Paolo; Beller, George A.; Berman, Daniel S.; Druz, Regina S.; Malik, Shaista; Rigolin, Vera H.; Weigold, Wm. Guy; Soman, Prem

    2017-01-01

    Increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes is well established; diabetes is associated with at least a 2-fold increased risk of coronary heart disease. Approximately two-thirds of deaths among persons with diabetes are related to cardiovascular disease. Previously, diabetes was regarded as a “coronary risk equivalent,” implying a high 10-year cardiovascular risk for every diabetes patient. Following the original study by Haffner et al., multiple studies from different cohorts provided varying conclusions on the validity of the concept of coronary risk equivalency in patients with diabetes. New guidelines have started to acknowledge the heterogeneity in risk and include different treatment recommendations for diabetic patients without other risk factors who are considered to be at lower risk. Furthermore, guidelines have suggested that further risk stratification in patients with diabetes is warranted before universal treatment. The Imaging Council of the American College of Cardiology systematically reviewed all modalities commonly used for risk stratification in persons with diabetes mellitus and summarized the data and recommendations. This document reviews the evidence regarding the use of noninvasive testing to stratify asymptomatic patients with diabetes with regard to coronary heart disease risk and develops an algorithm for screening based on available data. PMID:26846937

  8. Heart rate variability based on risk stratification for type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    PubMed

    Silva-E-Oliveira, Julia; Amélio, Pâmela Marina; Abranches, Isabela Lopes Laguardia; Damasceno, Dênis Derly; Furtado, Fabianne

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and was classified as low risk (n=26), slightly elevated risk (n=41), moderate risk (n=27) and high risk (n=32). To measure heart rate variability, a heart-rate monitor Polar S810i® was employed to obtain RR series for each individual, at rest, for 5 minutes, followed by analysis of linear and nonlinear indexes. The groups at higher risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus had significantly lower linear and nonlinear heart rate variability indexes. The individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus have lower heart rate variability. Avaliar a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca em adultos com diferentes níveis de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2. O grau de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 de 130 participantes (41 homens) foi avaliado pelo questionário Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Os participantes foram classificados em baixo risco (n=26), risco levemente elevado (n=41), risco moderado (n=27) e alto risco (n=32). Para medir a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca, utilizou-se o frequencímetro Polar S810i® para obter séries de intervalo RR para cada indivíduo, em repouso, durante 5 minutos; posteriormente, realizou-se análise por meio de índices lineares e não-lineares. O grupo com maior risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 teve uma diminuição significante nos índices lineares e não-lineares da variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. Os resultados apontam que indivíduos com risco alto para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 tem menor variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score

  9. Classification of drugs with different risk profiles.

    PubMed

    Saedder, Eva Aggerholm; Brock, Birgitte; Nielsen, Lars Peter; Bonnerup, Dorthe Krogsgaard; Lisby, Marianne

    2015-08-01

    A risk stratification approach is needed to identify patients at high risk of medication errors and a resulting high need of medication review. The aim of this study was to perform risk stratification (distinguishing between low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs) for drugs found to cause serious adverse reactions due to medication errors. The study employed a modified Delphi technique. Drugs from a systematic literature search were included into two rounds of a Delphi process. A panel of experts was asked to evaluate each identified drug's potential for harm and for clinically relevant drug-drug interactions on a scale from 1 (low risk) to 9 (high risk). A total of 36 experts were appointed to serve on the panel. Consensus was reached for 29/57 (51%) drugs or drug classes that cause harm, and for 32/57 (56%) of the drugs or drug classes that cause interactions. For the remaining drugs, a decision was made based on the median score. Two lists, one stating the drugs' potential for causing harm and the other stating clinically relevant drug-drug interactions, were stratified into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs. Based on a modified Delphi technique, we created two lists of drugs stratified into a low-risk, a medium-risk and a high-risk group of clinically relevant interactions or risk of harm to patients. The lists could be incorporated into a risk-scoring tool that stratifies the performance of medication reviews according to patients' risk of experiencing adverse reactions. none. not relevant.

  10. Quantitative Stratification of Diffuse Parenchymal Lung Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Raghunath, Sushravya; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Maldonado, Fabien; Peikert, Tobias; Moua, Teng; Ryu, Jay H.; Bartholmai, Brian J.; Robb, Richard A.

    2014-01-01

    Diffuse parenchymal lung diseases (DPLDs) are characterized by widespread pathological changes within the pulmonary tissue that impair the elasticity and gas exchange properties of the lungs. Clinical-radiological diagnosis of these diseases remains challenging and their clinical course is characterized by variable disease progression. These challenges have hindered the introduction of robust objective biomarkers for patient-specific prediction based on specific phenotypes in clinical practice for patients with DPLD. Therefore, strategies facilitating individualized clinical management, staging and identification of specific phenotypes linked to clinical disease outcomes or therapeutic responses are urgently needed. A classification schema consistently reflecting the radiological, clinical (lung function and clinical outcomes) and pathological features of a disease represents a critical need in modern pulmonary medicine. Herein, we report a quantitative stratification paradigm to identify subsets of DPLD patients with characteristic radiologic patterns in an unsupervised manner and demonstrate significant correlation of these self-organized disease groups with clinically accepted surrogate endpoints. The proposed consistent and reproducible technique could potentially transform diagnostic staging, clinical management and prognostication of DPLD patients as well as facilitate patient selection for clinical trials beyond the ability of current radiological tools. In addition, the sequential quantitative stratification of the type and extent of parenchymal process may allow standardized and objective monitoring of disease, early assessment of treatment response and mortality prediction for DPLD patients. PMID:24676019

  11. Measuring Density Stratification and Understanding its Impact on Sediment Transport in Fine-grained Rivers, Based on Observations from the Lower Yellow River, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moodie, A. J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Ma, H.; Lamb, M. P.; Carlson, B.; Kineke, G. C.; Parker, G.

    2017-12-01

    High concentrations of suspended sediment in channelized fluid flow produces density stratification that can alter the turbulent flow structure, thus limiting fluid momentum redistribution and affecting sediment transport capacity. A low channel-bed slope and large flow depth are hypothesized to be additional important factors contributing to density stratification. However, there are limited observations of density stratification in large rivers, especially those that carry significant fluxes of mud, and so the conditions leading to the development of density stratification are poorly constrained. The Yellow River, China, is a fine-grained and low-sloping river that maintains some of the highest suspended sediment concentrations in large rivers worldwide, making it an ideal natural laboratory for studying density stratification and its impact on sediment transport. Suspended sediment samples from the lower Yellow River, collected over a range of discharge conditions, produced sediment concentration profiles that are used in conjunction with velocity profiles to determine the threshold shear velocity for density stratification effects to develop. Comparing measured and predicted concentration and velocity profiles demonstrates that, there is no significant density stratification for base flow conditions; however, above a shear velocity value of 0.05 m/s, there is a progressive offset between the measured and predicted profiles, indicating that density stratification is increasingly important with higher shear stress values. The analyses further indicate that sediment entrainment from the bed and sediment diffusivity within the water column are significantly impacted by density stratification, suggesting that shear stress and sediment transport rates are inhibited by the development of density stratification. Near-bed concentration measurements are used to assess a stress-to-entrainment relationship, accounting for density stratification. These measurements are

  12. Overview and recent advances in the treatment of neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Whittle, Sarah B; Smith, Valeria; Doherty, Erin; Zhao, Sibo; McCarty, Scott; Zage, Peter E

    2017-04-01

    Children with neuroblastoma have widely divergent outcomes, ranging from cure in >90% of patients with low risk disease to <50% for those with high risk disease. Recent research has shed light on the biology of neuroblastoma, allowing for more accurate risk stratification and treatment reduction in many cases, although newer treatment strategies for children with high-risk and relapsed neuroblastoma are needed to improve outcomes. Areas covered: Neuroblastoma epidemiology, diagnosis, risk stratification, and recent advances in treatment of both newly diagnosed and relapsed neuroblastoma. Expert commentary: The identification of newer tumor targets and of novel cell-mediated immunotherapy agents may lead to novel therapeutic approaches, and clinical trials for regimens designed to target individual genetic aberrations in tumors are underway. A combination of therapeutic modalities will likely be required to improve survival and cure rates for patients with high-risk neuroblastoma.

  13. Simultaneous observations of F2 layer stratification and spread F at postmidnight over a northern equatorial anomaly region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Chunhua; Yang, Guobin; Deng, Chi; Zhou, Chen; Zhu, Peng; Yokoyama, Tatsuhiro; Song, Huan; Lan, Ting; Ni, Binbin; Zhao, Zhengyu; Zhang, Yuannong

    2015-12-01

    Simultaneous observations of F2 layer stratification and spread F at postmidnight (00:00 LT to 05:00 LT) were carried out on 22, 23, and 28 November 2013, using ionosondes distributed over a northern equatorial anomaly region at three specific locations, i.e., Puer (PUR, 22.7°N, 101.05°E, dip latitude 12.9°N), Chiang Mai (CMU, 18.8°N, 98.9°E, dip latitude 9.04°N), and Chumphon (CPN, 10.7°N, 99.4°E, dip latitude 0.93°N). The results show that both the PUR and CMU stations observed the F2 layer stratification at postmidnight in the Northern Hemisphere, frequently accompanied with gravity waves (the periods~30-100 min). It is reported that F2 layer stratification at postmidnight can be observed in the Northern Hemisphere for the first time. It is suggested that the thermospheric neutral wind triggered by gravity waves strongly contribute to the altitude dependence of the combined vertical plasma velocity, which consequently poses significant impacts on the occurrence of the low-latitude F2 layer stratification at postmidnight. In addition, the spread F other than F2 layer stratification was observed at the CPN station located at the geomagnetic equator, suggesting that smaller geomagnetic inclination tend to inhibit the postmidnight F2 layer stratification in the equatorial region. Furthermore, on 23 November 2013 a good correlation was identified between the F2 layer stratification at PUR and the spread F at both CMU and CPN, possibly due to that the large-scale gravity waves originating at middle latitudes contribute to the nighttime spread F observed in the low-latitude and equatorial regions.

  14. Identifying inequities in maternal and child health through risk stratification to inform health systems strengthening in Northern Togo

    PubMed Central

    McCarthy, Katharine J.; Braganza, Sandra; Fiori, Kevin; Gbeleou, Christophe; Kpakpo, Vivien; Lopez, Andrew; Schechter, Jennifer; Singham Goodwin, Alicia; Jones, Heidi E.

    2017-01-01

    Objective In Togo, substantial progress in maternal and child health is needed to reach global development goals. To better inform clinic and community-based health services, this study identifies factors associated with maternal and child health care utilization in the Kara region of Northern Togo. Methods We conducted a population-representative household survey of four health clinic catchment areas of 1,075 women of reproductive age in 2015. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model individual and structural factors associated with utilization of four maternal and child health services. Key outcomes were: facility-based delivery, maternal postnatal health check by a health professional within the first six weeks of birth, childhood vaccination, and receipt of malaria medication for febrile children under age five within 72 hours of symptom onset. Results 83 percent of women who gave birth in the last 2 years delivered at a health facility. In adjusted models, the strongest predictor of facility delivery in the rural catchment areas was proximity to a health center, with women living under three kilometers having 3.7 (95% CI 1.7, 7.9) times the odds of a facility birth. Only 11 percent of women received a health check by a health provider at any time in the postnatal period. Postnatal health checks were less likely for women in the poorest households and for women who resided in rural areas. Children of polygamous mothers had half the odds of receiving malaria medication for fever within 72 hours of symptom onset, while children with increased household wealth status had increased odds of childhood vaccination and receiving treatment for malaria. Conclusion Our analysis highlights the importance of risk stratification analysis to inform the delivery and scope of maternal and child health programs needed to reach those with the least access to care. PMID:28301539

  15. Dynamic Risk Stratification of Patient Long-Term Outcome After Pulmonary Endarterectomy: Results From the United Kingdom National Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Cannon, John E.; Su, Li; Kiely, David G.; Page, Kathleen; Toshner, Mark; Swietlik, Emilia; Treacy, Carmen; Ponnaberanam, Anie; Condliffe, Robin; Sheares, Karen; Taboada, Dolores; Dunning, John; Tsui, Steven; Ng, Choo; Gopalan, Deepa; Screaton, Nicholas; Elliot, Charlie; Gibbs, Simon; Howard, Luke; Corris, Paul; Lordan, James; Johnson, Martin; Peacock, Andrew; MacKenzie-Ross, Robert; Schreiber, Benji; Coghlan, Gerry; Dimopoulos, Kostas; Wort, Stephen J.; Gaine, Sean; Moledina, Shahin; Jenkins, David P.; Pepke-Zaba, Joanna

    2018-01-01

    Background Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension results from incomplete resolution of pulmonary emboli. Pulmonary endarterectomy (PEA) is potentially curative, but residual pulmonary hypertension following surgery is common and its impact on long-term outcome is poorly understood. We wanted to identify factors correlated with poor long-term outcome after surgery and specifically define clinically relevant residual pulmonary hypertension post-PEA. Methods and Results Eight hundred eighty consecutive patients (mean age, 57 years) underwent PEA for chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension. Patients routinely underwent detailed reassessment with right heart catheterization and noninvasive testing at 3 to 6 months and annually thereafter with discharge if they were clinically stable at 3 to 5 years and did not require pulmonary vasodilator therapy. Cox regressions were used for survival (time-to-event) analyses. Overall survival was 86%, 84%, 79%, and 72% at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years for the whole cohort and 91% and 90% at 1 and 3 years for the recent half of the cohort. The majority of patient deaths after the perioperative period were not attributable to right ventricular failure (chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension). At reassessment, a mean pulmonary artery pressure of ≥30 mm Hg correlated with the initiation of pulmonary vasodilator therapy post-PEA. A mean pulmonary artery pressure of ≥38 mm Hg and pulmonary vascular resistance ≥425 dynes·s–1·cm–5 at reassessment correlated with worse long-term survival. Conclusions Our data confirm excellent long-term survival and maintenance of good functional status post-PEA. Hemodynamic assessment 3 to 6 months and 12 months post-PEA allows stratification of patients at higher risk of dying of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension and identifies a level of residual pulmonary hypertension that may guide the long-term management of patients postsurgery. PMID:27052413

  16. Increasing the Knowledge of Stratification in Shallow Coastal Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ojo, T.; Bonner, J.; Hodges, B.; Maidment, D.; Montagna, P.; Minsker, B.

    2006-12-01

    A testbed has been established using Corpus Christi Bay as an environmental field facility to study the phenomenon of hypoxia that has been observed to develop at certain periods during the year. Stratification affects vertical turbulent mixing of heat, momentum and mass (or constituents) within the water column, in turn influencing the transport of material. The mixing threshold is dependent on the value of the Richardson Number, Ri with inhibition due to stratification occurring at low values (< 0.25) and complete vertical mixing occurring at high values (> 0.25) of Ri. Corpus Christi Bay with average depth of ~3 m is the largest among a system of five bays has been known to stratify due to inflows of hypersaline water (up to 50 psu) from adjoining bays, the Laguna Madre and Oso Bay. Laguna Madre is separated from the Gulf of Mexico by a barrier island and becomes hypersaline because of the imbalance between inflow of freshwater and bay evaporation. Hypersalinity also occurs in Oso Bay due to anthropogenic forcing from a power plant that draws 400 MGD of cooling water from the upper Laguna Madre, discharging waste water into Oso Bay. Several wastewater treatment plants also discharge directly into Oso Bay or its tributary streams. The objective of this study is to develop a methodology for prescribing a set of parameters required for modeling and characterization of hypoxia in this shallow wind-driven bay. The extent to which Ri is dependent on external forcing at the surface boundary was measured using our fully instrumented sensor platforms. Each sensor platform includes sensors for synchronic near-surface meteorological (wind velocity, barometric pressure, air temperature) and water column oceanographic (current, water temperature, conductivity, particle size distribution, particulate concentration, dissolved oxygen, nutrient) variables. These were measured using fixed and mobile vertical profiling sensor platforms. A 2D hydrodynamic model was initially

  17. Combined Population Dynamics and Entropy Modelling Supports Patient Stratification in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Brehme, Marc; Koschmieder, Steffen; Montazeri, Maryam; Copland, Mhairi; Oehler, Vivian G.; Radich, Jerald P.; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Schuppert, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    Modelling the parameters of multistep carcinogenesis is key for a better understanding of cancer progression, biomarker identification and the design of individualized therapies. Using chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a paradigm for hierarchical disease evolution we show that combined population dynamic modelling and CML patient biopsy genomic analysis enables patient stratification at unprecedented resolution. Linking CD34+ similarity as a disease progression marker to patient-derived gene expression entropy separated established CML progression stages and uncovered additional heterogeneity within disease stages. Importantly, our patient data informed model enables quantitative approximation of individual patients’ disease history within chronic phase (CP) and significantly separates “early” from “late” CP. Our findings provide a novel rationale for personalized and genome-informed disease progression risk assessment that is independent and complementary to conventional measures of CML disease burden and prognosis. PMID:27048866

  18. Combined Population Dynamics and Entropy Modelling Supports Patient Stratification in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brehme, Marc; Koschmieder, Steffen; Montazeri, Maryam; Copland, Mhairi; Oehler, Vivian G.; Radich, Jerald P.; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Schuppert, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Modelling the parameters of multistep carcinogenesis is key for a better understanding of cancer progression, biomarker identification and the design of individualized therapies. Using chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a paradigm for hierarchical disease evolution we show that combined population dynamic modelling and CML patient biopsy genomic analysis enables patient stratification at unprecedented resolution. Linking CD34+ similarity as a disease progression marker to patient-derived gene expression entropy separated established CML progression stages and uncovered additional heterogeneity within disease stages. Importantly, our patient data informed model enables quantitative approximation of individual patients’ disease history within chronic phase (CP) and significantly separates “early” from “late” CP. Our findings provide a novel rationale for personalized and genome-informed disease progression risk assessment that is independent and complementary to conventional measures of CML disease burden and prognosis.

  19. Water-Column Stratification Observed along an AUV-Tracked Isotherm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.; Messié, M.; Ryan, J. P.; Kieft, B.; Stanway, M. J.; Hobson, B.; O'Reilly, T. C.; Raanan, B. Y.; Smith, J. M.; Chavez, F.

    2016-02-01

    Studies of marine physical, chemical and microbiological processes benefit from observing in a Lagrangian frame of reference, i.e. drifting with ambient water. Because these processes can be organized relative to specific density or temperature ranges, maintaining observing platforms within targeted environmental ranges is an important observing strategy. We have developed a novel method to enable a Tethys-class long-range autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) (which has a propeller and a buoyancy engine) to track a target isotherm in buoyancy-controlled drift mode. In this mode, the vehicle shuts off its propeller and autonomously detects the isotherm and stays with it by actively controlling the vehicle's buoyancy. In the June 2015 CANON (Controlled, Agile, and Novel Observing Network) Experiment in Monterey Bay, California, AUV Makai tracked a target isotherm for 13 hours to study the coastal upwelling system. The tracked isotherm started from 33 m depth, shoaled to 10 m, and then deepened to 29 m. The thickness of the tracked isotherm layer (within 0.3°C error from the target temperature) increased over this duration, reflecting weakened stratification around the isotherm. During Makai's isotherm tracking, another long-range AUV, Daphne, acoustically tracked Makai on a circular yo-yo trajectory, measuring water-column profiles in Makai's vicinity. A wave glider also acoustically tracked Makai, providing sea surface measurements on the track. The presented method is a new approach for studying water-column stratification, but requires careful analysis of the temporal and spatial variations mingled in the vehicles' measurements. We will present a synthesis of the water column's stratification in relation to the upwelling conditions, based on the in situ measurements by the mobile platforms, as well as remote sensing and mooring data.

  20. Effect of stable stratification on dispersion within urban street canyons: A large-eddy simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xian-Xiang; Britter, Rex; Norford, Leslie K.

    2016-11-01

    This study employs a validated large-eddy simulation (LES) code with high tempo-spatial resolution to investigate the effect of a stably stratified roughness sublayer (RSL) on scalar transport within an urban street canyon. The major effect of stable stratification on the flow and turbulence inside the street canyon is that the flow slows down in both streamwise and vertical directions, a stagnant area near the street level emerges, and the vertical transport of momentum is weakened. Consequently, the transfer of heat between the street canyon and overlying atmosphere also gets weaker. The pollutant emitted from the street level 'pools' within the lower street canyon, and more pollutant accumulates within the street canyon with increasing stability. Under stable stratification, the dominant mechanism for pollutant transport within the street canyon has changed from ejections (flow carries high-concentration pollutant upward) to unorganized motions (flow carries high-concentration pollutant downward), which is responsible for the much lower dispersion efficiency under stable stratifications.