Sample records for accurate transition probabilities

  1. Obtaining Accurate Probabilities Using Classifier Calibration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakdaman Naeini, Mahdi

    2016-01-01

    Learning probabilistic classification and prediction models that generate accurate probabilities is essential in many prediction and decision-making tasks in machine learning and data mining. One way to achieve this goal is to post-process the output of classification models to obtain more accurate probabilities. These post-processing methods are…

  2. Efficient Transition Probability Computation for Continuous-Time Branching Processes via Compressed Sensing.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jason; Minin, Vladimir N

    2015-07-01

    Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with ubiquitous applications. A general difficulty in statistical inference under partially observed CTMC models arises in computing transition probabilities when the discrete state space is large or uncountable. Classical methods such as matrix exponentiation are infeasible for large or countably infinite state spaces, and sampling-based alternatives are computationally intensive, requiring integration over all possible hidden events. Recent work has successfully applied generating function techniques to computing transition probabilities for linear multi-type branching processes. While these techniques often require significantly fewer computations than matrix exponentiation, they also become prohibitive in applications with large populations. We propose a compressed sensing framework that significantly accelerates the generating function method, decreasing computational cost up to a logarithmic factor by only assuming the probability mass of transitions is sparse. We demonstrate accurate and efficient transition probability computations in branching process models for blood cell formation and evolution of self-replicating transposable elements in bacterial genomes.

  3. Efficient Transition Probability Computation for Continuous-Time Branching Processes via Compressed Sensing

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Jason; Minin, Vladimir N.

    2016-01-01

    Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with ubiquitous applications. A general difficulty in statistical inference under partially observed CTMC models arises in computing transition probabilities when the discrete state space is large or uncountable. Classical methods such as matrix exponentiation are infeasible for large or countably infinite state spaces, and sampling-based alternatives are computationally intensive, requiring integration over all possible hidden events. Recent work has successfully applied generating function techniques to computing transition probabilities for linear multi-type branching processes. While these techniques often require significantly fewer computations than matrix exponentiation, they also become prohibitive in applications with large populations. We propose a compressed sensing framework that significantly accelerates the generating function method, decreasing computational cost up to a logarithmic factor by only assuming the probability mass of transitions is sparse. We demonstrate accurate and efficient transition probability computations in branching process models for blood cell formation and evolution of self-replicating transposable elements in bacterial genomes. PMID:26949377

  4. Accurate potential energy curves, spectroscopic parameters, transition dipole moments, and transition probabilities of 21 low-lying states of the CO+ cation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xing, Wei; Shi, Deheng; Zhang, Jicai; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2018-05-01

    This paper calculates the potential energy curves of 21 Λ-S and 42 Ω states, which arise from the first two dissociation asymptotes of the CO+ cation. The calculations are conducted using the complete active space self-consistent field method, which is followed by the valence internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with the Davidson correction. To improve the reliability and accuracy of the potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as the extrapolation of potential energies to the complete basis set limit are taken into account. The spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are determined. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels is evaluated. To better study the transition probabilities, the transition dipole moments are computed. The Franck-Condon factors and Einstein coefficients of some emissions are calculated. The radiative lifetimes are determined for a number of vibrational levels of several states. The transitions between different Λ-S states are evaluated. Spectroscopic routines for observing these states are proposed. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered to be very reliable and can be used as guidelines for detecting these states in an appropriate spectroscopy experiment, especially for the states that were very difficult to observe or were not detected in previous experiments.

  5. Transition probability spaces in loop quantum gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Xiao-Kan

    2018-03-01

    We study the (generalized) transition probability spaces, in the sense of Mielnik and Cantoni, for spacetime quantum states in loop quantum gravity. First, we show that loop quantum gravity admits the structures of transition probability spaces. This is exemplified by first checking such structures in covariant quantum mechanics and then identifying the transition probability spaces in spin foam models via a simplified version of general boundary formulation. The transition probability space thus defined gives a simple way to reconstruct the discrete analog of the Hilbert space of the canonical theory and the relevant quantum logical structures. Second, we show that the transition probability space and in particular the spin foam model are 2-categories. Then we discuss how to realize in spin foam models two proposals by Crane about the mathematical structures of quantum gravity, namely, the quantum topos and causal sites. We conclude that transition probability spaces provide us with an alternative framework to understand various foundational questions of loop quantum gravity.

  6. Convergence of Transition Probability Matrix in CLVMarkov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Permana, D.; Pasaribu, U. S.; Indratno, S. W.; Suprayogi, S.

    2018-04-01

    A transition probability matrix is an arrangement of transition probability from one states to another in a Markov chain model (MCM). One of interesting study on the MCM is its behavior for a long time in the future. The behavior is derived from one property of transition probabilty matrix for n steps. This term is called the convergence of the n-step transition matrix for n move to infinity. Mathematically, the convergence of the transition probability matrix is finding the limit of the transition matrix which is powered by n where n moves to infinity. The convergence form of the transition probability matrix is very interesting as it will bring the matrix to its stationary form. This form is useful for predicting the probability of transitions between states in the future. The method usually used to find the convergence of transition probability matrix is through the process of limiting the distribution. In this paper, the convergence of the transition probability matrix is searched using a simple concept of linear algebra that is by diagonalizing the matrix.This method has a higher level of complexity because it has to perform the process of diagonalization in its matrix. But this way has the advantage of obtaining a common form of power n of the transition probability matrix. This form is useful to see transition matrix before stationary. For example cases are taken from CLV model using MCM called Model of CLV-Markov. There are several models taken by its transition probability matrix to find its convergence form. The result is that the convergence of the matrix of transition probability through diagonalization has similarity with convergence with commonly used distribution of probability limiting method.

  7. Using optimal transport theory to estimate transition probabilities in metapopulation dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, Jonathan M.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.; Nichols, James D.

    2017-01-01

    This work considers the estimation of transition probabilities associated with populations moving among multiple spatial locations based on numbers of individuals at each location at two points in time. The problem is generally underdetermined as there exists an extremely large number of ways in which individuals can move from one set of locations to another. A unique solution therefore requires a constraint. The theory of optimal transport provides such a constraint in the form of a cost function, to be minimized in expectation over the space of possible transition matrices. We demonstrate the optimal transport approach on marked bird data and compare to the probabilities obtained via maximum likelihood estimation based on marked individuals. It is shown that by choosing the squared Euclidean distance as the cost, the estimated transition probabilities compare favorably to those obtained via maximum likelihood with marked individuals. Other implications of this cost are discussed, including the ability to accurately interpolate the population's spatial distribution at unobserved points in time and the more general relationship between the cost and minimum transport energy.

  8. Transition Probabilities for Hydrogen-Like Atoms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jitrik, Oliverio; Bunge, Carlos F.

    2004-12-01

    E1, M1, E2, M2, E3, and M3 transition probabilities for hydrogen-like atoms are calculated with point-nucleus Dirac eigenfunctions for Z=1-118 and up to large quantum numbers l=25 and n=26, increasing existing data more than a thousandfold. A critical evaluation of the accuracy shows a higher reliability with respect to previous works. Tables for hydrogen containing a subset of the results are given explicitly, listing the states involved in each transition, wavelength, term energies, statistical weights, transition probabilities, oscillator strengths, and line strengths. The complete results, including 1 863 574 distinct transition probabilities, lifetimes, and branching fractions are available at http://www.fisica.unam.mx/research/tables/spectra/1el

  9. Statistic inversion of multi-zone transition probability models for aquifer characterization in alluvial fans

    DOE PAGES

    Zhu, Lin; Dai, Zhenxue; Gong, Huili; ...

    2015-06-12

    Understanding the heterogeneity arising from the complex architecture of sedimentary sequences in alluvial fans is challenging. This study develops a statistical inverse framework in a multi-zone transition probability approach for characterizing the heterogeneity in alluvial fans. An analytical solution of the transition probability matrix is used to define the statistical relationships among different hydrofacies and their mean lengths, integral scales, and volumetric proportions. A statistical inversion is conducted to identify the multi-zone transition probability models and estimate the optimal statistical parameters using the modified Gauss–Newton–Levenberg–Marquardt method. The Jacobian matrix is computed by the sensitivity equation method, which results in anmore » accurate inverse solution with quantification of parameter uncertainty. We use the Chaobai River alluvial fan in the Beijing Plain, China, as an example for elucidating the methodology of alluvial fan characterization. The alluvial fan is divided into three sediment zones. In each zone, the explicit mathematical formulations of the transition probability models are constructed with optimized different integral scales and volumetric proportions. The hydrofacies distributions in the three zones are simulated sequentially by the multi-zone transition probability-based indicator simulations. Finally, the result of this study provides the heterogeneous structure of the alluvial fan for further study of flow and transport simulations.« less

  10. Efficient Geometric Probabilities of Multi-transiting Systems, Circumbinary Planets, and Exoplanet Mutual Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brakensiek, Joshua; Ragozzine, D.

    2012-10-01

    The transit method for discovering extra-solar planets relies on detecting regular diminutions of light from stars due to the shadows of planets passing in between the star and the observer. NASA's Kepler Mission has successfully discovered thousands of exoplanet candidates using this technique, including hundreds of stars with multiple transiting planets. In order to estimate the frequency of these valuable systems, our research concerns the efficient calculation of geometric probabilities for detecting multiple transiting extrasolar planets around the same parent star. In order to improve on previous studies that used numerical methods (e.g., Ragozzine & Holman 2010, Tremaine & Dong 2011), we have constructed an efficient, analytical algorithm which, given a collection of conjectured exoplanets orbiting a star, computes the probability that any particular group of exoplanets are transiting. The algorithm applies theorems of elementary differential geometry to compute the areas bounded by circular curves on the surface of a sphere (see Ragozzine & Holman 2010). The implemented algorithm is more accurate and orders of magnitude faster than previous algorithms, based on comparison with Monte Carlo simulations. Expanding this work, we have also developed semi-analytical methods for determining the frequency of exoplanet mutual events, i.e., the geometric probability two planets will transit each other (Planet-Planet Occultation) and the probability that this transit occurs simultaneously as they transit their star (Overlapping Double Transits; see Ragozzine & Holman 2010). The latter algorithm can also be applied to calculating the probability of observing transiting circumbinary planets (Doyle et al. 2011, Welsh et al. 2012). All of these algorithms have been coded in C and will be made publicly available. We will present and advertise these codes and illustrate their value for studying exoplanetary systems.

  11. Location Prediction Based on Transition Probability Matrices Constructing from Sequential Rules for Spatial-Temporal K-Anonymity Dataset

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zhao; Zhu, Yunhong; Wu, Chenxue

    2016-01-01

    Spatial-temporal k-anonymity has become a mainstream approach among techniques for protection of users’ privacy in location-based services (LBS) applications, and has been applied to several variants such as LBS snapshot queries and continuous queries. Analyzing large-scale spatial-temporal anonymity sets may benefit several LBS applications. In this paper, we propose two location prediction methods based on transition probability matrices constructing from sequential rules for spatial-temporal k-anonymity dataset. First, we define single-step sequential rules mined from sequential spatial-temporal k-anonymity datasets generated from continuous LBS queries for multiple users. We then construct transition probability matrices from mined single-step sequential rules, and normalize the transition probabilities in the transition matrices. Next, we regard a mobility model for an LBS requester as a stationary stochastic process and compute the n-step transition probability matrices by raising the normalized transition probability matrices to the power n. Furthermore, we propose two location prediction methods: rough prediction and accurate prediction. The former achieves the probabilities of arriving at target locations along simple paths those include only current locations, target locations and transition steps. By iteratively combining the probabilities for simple paths with n steps and the probabilities for detailed paths with n-1 steps, the latter method calculates transition probabilities for detailed paths with n steps from current locations to target locations. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments, and correctness and flexibility of our proposed algorithm have been verified. PMID:27508502

  12. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

    PubMed

    Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

    2017-06-06

    Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

  13. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

    PubMed Central

    Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

    2017-01-01

    Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373

  14. Estimation of State Transition Probabilities: A Neural Network Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, Hiroshi; Takiyama, Ken; Okada, Masato

    2015-12-01

    Humans and animals can predict future states on the basis of acquired knowledge. This prediction of the state transition is important for choosing the best action, and the prediction is only possible if the state transition probability has already been learned. However, how our brains learn the state transition probability is unknown. Here, we propose a simple algorithm for estimating the state transition probability by utilizing the state prediction error. We analytically and numerically confirmed that our algorithm is able to learn the probability completely with an appropriate learning rate. Furthermore, our learning rule reproduced experimentally reported psychometric functions and neural activities in the lateral intraparietal area in a decision-making task. Thus, our algorithm might describe the manner in which our brains learn state transition probabilities and predict future states.

  15. Hydrogeologic unit flow characterization using transition probability geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Jones, Norman L; Walker, Justin R; Carle, Steven F

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a technique for applying the transition probability geostatistics method for stochastic simulation to a MODFLOW model. Transition probability geostatistics has some advantages over traditional indicator kriging methods including a simpler and more intuitive framework for interpreting geologic relationships and the ability to simulate juxtapositional tendencies such as fining upward sequences. The indicator arrays generated by the transition probability simulation are converted to layer elevation and thickness arrays for use with the new Hydrogeologic Unit Flow package in MODFLOW 2000. This makes it possible to preserve complex heterogeneity while using reasonably sized grids and/or grids with nonuniform cell thicknesses.

  16. Transition probabilities of Br II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bengtson, R. D.; Miller, M. H.

    1976-01-01

    Absolute transition probabilities of the three most prominent visible Br II lines are measured in emission. Results compare well with Coulomb approximations and with line strengths extrapolated from trends in homologous atoms.

  17. Transition Dipole Moments and Transition Probabilities of the CN Radical

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yuan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2018-04-01

    This paper studies the transition probabilities of electric dipole transitions between 10 low-lying states of the CN radical. These states are X2Σ+, A2Π, B2Σ+, a4Σ+, b4Π, 14Σ‑, 24Π, 14Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π. The potential energy curves are calculated using the CASSCF method, which is followed by the icMRCI approach with the Davidson correction. The transition dipole moments between different states are calculated. To improve the accuracy of potential energy curves, core–valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as the extrapolation of potential energies to the complete basis set limit are included. The Franck–Condon factors and Einstein coefficients of emissions are calculated. The radiative lifetimes are determined for the vibrational levels of the A2Π, B2Σ+, b4Π, 14Σ‑, 24Π, 14Δ, and 16Π states. According to the transition probabilities and radiative lifetimes, some guidelines for detecting these states spectroscopically are proposed. The spin–orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic and vibrational properties is evaluated. The splitting energy in the A2Π state is determined to be 50.99 cm‑1, which compares well with the experimental ones. The potential energy curves, transition dipole moments, spectroscopic parameters, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered to be very reliable. The results obtained here can be used as guidelines for detecting these transitions, in particular those that have not been measured in previous experiments or have not been observed in the Sun, comets, stellar atmospheres, dark interstellar clouds, and diffuse interstellar clouds.

  18. Hydrogeologic Unit Flow Characterization Using Transition Probability Geostatistics

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jones, N L; Walker, J R; Carle, S F

    2003-11-21

    This paper describes a technique for applying the transition probability geostatistics method for stochastic simulation to a MODFLOW model. Transition probability geostatistics has several advantages over traditional indicator kriging methods including a simpler and more intuitive framework for interpreting geologic relationships and the ability to simulate juxtapositional tendencies such as fining upwards sequences. The indicator arrays generated by the transition probability simulation are converted to layer elevation and thickness arrays for use with the new Hydrogeologic Unit Flow (HUF) package in MODFLOW 2000. This makes it possible to preserve complex heterogeneity while using reasonably sized grids. An application of themore » technique involving probabilistic capture zone delineation for the Aberjona Aquifer in Woburn, Ma. is included.« less

  19. Estimation of transition probabilities of credit ratings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Gan Chew; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2015-12-01

    The present research is based on the quarterly credit ratings of ten companies over 15 years taken from the database of the Taiwan Economic Journal. The components in the vector mi (mi1, mi2,⋯, mi10) may first be used to denote the credit ratings of the ten companies in the i-th quarter. The vector mi+1 in the next quarter is modelled to be dependent on the vector mi via a conditional distribution which is derived from a 20-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) for getting mi+1,j = l given that mi, j = k is then computed from the conditional distribution. It is found that the variation of the transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) as i varies is able to give indication for the possible transition of the credit rating of the j-th company in the near future.

  20. MRCI study on transition dipole moments and transition probabilities of 18 low-lying states of CP+ cation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Dan; Wang, Kedong; Li, Xue

    2018-07-01

    This study calculates the potential energy curves of 18 Λ-S and 50 Ω states, which arise from the C(3Pg) + P+(3Pg) dissociation channel of the CP+ cation. The calculations are made using the CASSCF method, followed by the icMRCI approach with the Davidson correction. Core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as extrapolation to the complete basis set limit are included. The transition dipole moments are computed for 25 pairs of Λ-S states. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic and vibrational properties is evaluated. The Franck-Condon factors and Einstein coefficients of emissions are calculated. Radiative lifetimes are obtained for several vibrational levels of some states. The transitions are evaluated and spectroscopic measurement schemes for observing these Λ-S states are proposed. The potential energy curves, spectroscopic constants, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered to be very accurate and reliable. Because no experimental observations are currently available, the results obtained here can be used as guidelines for the detection of these states in appropriate spectroscopy experiments, in particular for observations in stellar atmospheres and in interstellar space.

  1. scEpath: Energy landscape-based inference of transition probabilities and cellular trajectories from single-cell transcriptomic data.

    PubMed

    Jin, Suoqin; MacLean, Adam L; Peng, Tao; Nie, Qing

    2018-02-05

    Single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) offers unprecedented resolution for studying cellular decision-making processes. Robust inference of cell state transition paths and probabilities is an important yet challenging step in the analysis of these data. Here we present scEpath, an algorithm that calculates energy landscapes and probabilistic directed graphs in order to reconstruct developmental trajectories. We quantify the energy landscape using "single-cell energy" and distance-based measures, and find that the combination of these enables robust inference of the transition probabilities and lineage relationships between cell states. We also identify marker genes and gene expression patterns associated with cell state transitions. Our approach produces pseudotemporal orderings that are - in combination - more robust and accurate than current methods, and offers higher resolution dynamics of the cell state transitions, leading to new insight into key transition events during differentiation and development. Moreover, scEpath is robust to variation in the size of the input gene set, and is broadly unsupervised, requiring few parameters to be set by the user. Applications of scEpath led to the identification of a cell-cell communication network implicated in early human embryo development, and novel transcription factors important for myoblast differentiation. scEpath allows us to identify common and specific temporal dynamics and transcriptional factor programs along branched lineages, as well as the transition probabilities that control cell fates. A MATLAB package of scEpath is available at https://github.com/sqjin/scEpath. qnie@uci.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press.

  2. Estimating transition probabilities in unmarked populations --entropy revisited

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cooch, E.G.; Link, W.A.

    1999-01-01

    The probability of surviving and moving between 'states' is of great interest to biologists. Robust estimation of these transitions using multiple observations of individually identifiable marked individuals has received considerable attention in recent years. However, in some situations, individuals are not identifiable (or have a very low recapture rate), although all individuals in a sample can be assigned to a particular state (e.g. breeding or non-breeding) without error. In such cases, only aggregate data (number of individuals in a given state at each occasion) are available. If the underlying matrix of transition probabilities does not vary through time and aggregate data are available for several time periods, then it is possible to estimate these parameters using least-squares methods. Even when such data are available, this assumption of stationarity will usually be deemed overly restrictive and, frequently, data will only be available for two time periods. In these cases, the problem reduces to estimating the most likely matrix (or matrices) leading to the observed frequency distribution of individuals in each state. An entropy maximization approach has been previously suggested. In this paper, we show that the entropy approach rests on a particular limiting assumption, and does not provide estimates of latent population parameters (the transition probabilities), but rather predictions of realized rates.

  3. Solution to a gene divergence problem under arbitrary stable nucleotide transition probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holmquist, R.

    1976-01-01

    A nucleic acid chain, L nucleotides in length, with the specific base sequence B(1)B(2) ... B(L) is defined by the L-dimensional vector B = (B(1), B(2), ..., B(L)). For twelve given constant non-negative transition probabilities that, in a specified position, the base B is replaced by the base B' in a single step, an exact analytical expression is derived for the probability that the position goes from base B to B' in X steps. Assuming that each base mutates independently of the others, an exact expression is derived for the probability that the initial gene sequence B goes to a sequence B' = (B'(1), B'(2), ..., B'(L)) after X = (X(1), X(2), ..., X(L)) base replacements. The resulting equations allow a more precise accounting for the effects of Darwinian natural selection in molecular evolution than does the idealized (biologically less accurate) assumption that each of the four nucleotides is equally likely to mutate to and be fixed as one of the other three. Illustrative applications of the theory to some problems of biological evolution are given.

  4. Probability of Accurate Heart Failure Diagnosis and the Implications for Hospital Readmissions.

    PubMed

    Carey, Sandra A; Bass, Kyle; Saracino, Giovanna; East, Cara A; Felius, Joost; Grayburn, Paul A; Vallabhan, Ravi C; Hall, Shelley A

    2017-04-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a complex syndrome with inherent diagnostic challenges. We studied the scope of possibly inaccurately documented HF in a large health care system among patients assigned a primary diagnosis of HF at discharge. Through a retrospective record review and a classification schema developed from published guidelines, we assessed the probability of the documented HF diagnosis being accurate and determined factors associated with HF-related and non-HF-related hospital readmissions. An arbitration committee of 3 experts reviewed a subset of records to corroborate the results. We assigned a low probability of accurate diagnosis to 133 (19%) of the 712 patients. A subset of patients were also reviewed by an expert panel, which concluded that 13% to 35% of patients probably did not have HF (inter-rater agreement, kappa = 0.35). Low-probability HF was predictive of being readmitted more frequently for non-HF causes (p = 0.018), as well as documented arrhythmias (p = 0.023), and age >60 years (p = 0.006). Documented sleep apnea (p = 0.035), percutaneous coronary intervention (p = 0.006), non-white race (p = 0.047), and B-type natriuretic peptide >400 pg/ml (p = 0.007) were determined to be predictive of HF readmissions in this cohort. In conclusion, approximately 1 in 5 patients documented to have HF were found to have a low probability of actually having it. Moreover, the determination of low-probability HF was twice as likely to result in readmission for non-HF causes and, thus, should be considered a determinant for all-cause readmissions in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Transition probability, dynamic regimes, and the critical point of financial crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Yinan; Chen, Ping

    2015-07-01

    An empirical and theoretical analysis of financial crises is conducted based on statistical mechanics in non-equilibrium physics. The transition probability provides a new tool for diagnosing a changing market. Both calm and turbulent markets can be described by the birth-death process for price movements driven by identical agents. The transition probability in a time window can be estimated from stock market indexes. Positive and negative feedback trading behaviors can be revealed by the upper and lower curves in transition probability. Three dynamic regimes are discovered from two time periods including linear, quasi-linear, and nonlinear patterns. There is a clear link between liberalization policy and market nonlinearity. Numerical estimation of a market turning point is close to the historical event of the US 2008 financial crisis.

  6. Generating probabilistic Boolean networks from a prescribed transition probability matrix.

    PubMed

    Ching, W-K; Chen, X; Tsing, N-K

    2009-11-01

    Probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs) have received much attention in modeling genetic regulatory networks. A PBN can be regarded as a Markov chain process and is characterised by a transition probability matrix. In this study, the authors propose efficient algorithms for constructing a PBN when its transition probability matrix is given. The complexities of the algorithms are also analysed. This is an interesting inverse problem in network inference using steady-state data. The problem is important as most microarray data sets are assumed to be obtained from sampling the steady-state.

  7. Exact transition probabilities in a 6-state Landau–Zener system with path interference

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sinitsyn, Nikolai A.

    2015-04-23

    In this paper, we identify a nontrivial multistate Landau–Zener (LZ) model for which transition probabilities between any pair of diabatic states can be determined analytically and exactly. In the semiclassical picture, this model features the possibility of interference of different trajectories that connect the same initial and final states. Hence, transition probabilities are generally not described by the incoherent successive application of the LZ formula. Finally, we discuss reasons for integrability of this system and provide numerical tests of the suggested expression for the transition probability matrix.

  8. Camera-Model Identification Using Markovian Transition Probability Matrix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Guanshuo; Gao, Shang; Shi, Yun Qing; Hu, Ruimin; Su, Wei

    Detecting the (brands and) models of digital cameras from given digital images has become a popular research topic in the field of digital forensics. As most of images are JPEG compressed before they are output from cameras, we propose to use an effective image statistical model to characterize the difference JPEG 2-D arrays of Y and Cb components from the JPEG images taken by various camera models. Specifically, the transition probability matrices derived from four different directional Markov processes applied to the image difference JPEG 2-D arrays are used to identify statistical difference caused by image formation pipelines inside different camera models. All elements of the transition probability matrices, after a thresholding technique, are directly used as features for classification purpose. Multi-class support vector machines (SVM) are used as the classification tool. The effectiveness of our proposed statistical model is demonstrated by large-scale experimental results.

  9. Transition probabilities of health states for workers in Malaysia using a Markov chain model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samsuddin, Shamshimah; Ismail, Noriszura

    2017-04-01

    The aim of our study is to estimate the transition probabilities of health states for workers in Malaysia who contribute to the Employment Injury Scheme under the Social Security Organization Malaysia using the Markov chain model. Our study uses four states of health (active, temporary disability, permanent disability and death) based on the data collected from the longitudinal studies of workers in Malaysia for 5 years. The transition probabilities vary by health state, age and gender. The results show that men employees are more likely to have higher transition probabilities to any health state compared to women employees. The transition probabilities can be used to predict the future health of workers in terms of a function of current age, gender and health state.

  10. Multistate modeling of habitat dynamics: Factors affecting Florida scrub transition probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breininger, D.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Duncan, B.W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Carter, G.M.; Hunt, D.K.; Drese, J.H.

    2010-01-01

    Many ecosystems are influenced by disturbances that create specific successional states and habitat structures that species need to persist. Estimating transition probabilities between habitat states and modeling the factors that influence such transitions have many applications for investigating and managing disturbance-prone ecosystems. We identify the correspondence between multistate capture-recapture models and Markov models of habitat dynamics. We exploit this correspondence by fitting and comparing competing models of different ecological covariates affecting habitat transition probabilities in Florida scrub and flatwoods, a habitat important to many unique plants and animals. We subdivided a large scrub and flatwoods ecosystem along central Florida's Atlantic coast into 10-ha grid cells, which approximated average territory size of the threatened Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a management indicator species. We used 1.0-m resolution aerial imagery for 1994, 1999, and 2004 to classify grid cells into four habitat quality states that were directly related to Florida Scrub-Jay source-sink dynamics and management decision making. Results showed that static site features related to fire propagation (vegetation type, edges) and temporally varying disturbances (fires, mechanical cutting) best explained transition probabilities. Results indicated that much of the scrub and flatwoods ecosystem was resistant to moving from a degraded state to a desired state without mechanical cutting, an expensive restoration tool. We used habitat models parameterized with the estimated transition probabilities to investigate the consequences of alternative management scenarios on future habitat dynamics. We recommend this multistate modeling approach as being broadly applicable for studying ecosystem, land cover, or habitat dynamics. The approach provides maximum-likelihood estimates of transition parameters, including precision measures, and can be used to assess

  11. Transition probabilities of Ce I obtained from Boltzmann analysis of visible and near-infrared emission spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitz, D. E.; Curry, J. J.; Buuck, M.; DeMann, A.; Mitchell, N.; Shull, W.

    2018-02-01

    We report radiative transition probabilities for 5029 emission lines of neutral cerium within the wavelength range 417-1110 nm. Transition probabilities for only 4% of these lines have been previously measured. These results are obtained from a Boltzmann analysis of two high resolution Fourier transform emission spectra used in previous studies of cerium, obtained from the digital archives of the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak. The set of transition probabilities used for the Boltzmann analysis are those published by Lawler et al (2010 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 43 085701). Comparisons of branching ratios and transition probabilities for lines common to the two spectra provide important self-consistency checks and test for the presence of self-absorption effects. Estimated 1σ uncertainties for our transition probability results range from 10% to 18%.

  12. Saliency Detection via Absorbing Markov Chain With Learnt Transition Probability.

    PubMed

    Lihe Zhang; Jianwu Ai; Bowen Jiang; Huchuan Lu; Xiukui Li

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a bottom-up saliency model based on absorbing Markov chain (AMC). First, a sparsely connected graph is constructed to capture the local context information of each node. All image boundary nodes and other nodes are, respectively, treated as the absorbing nodes and transient nodes in the absorbing Markov chain. Then, the expected number of times from each transient node to all other transient nodes can be used to represent the saliency value of this node. The absorbed time depends on the weights on the path and their spatial coordinates, which are completely encoded in the transition probability matrix. Considering the importance of this matrix, we adopt different hierarchies of deep features extracted from fully convolutional networks and learn a transition probability matrix, which is called learnt transition probability matrix. Although the performance is significantly promoted, salient objects are not uniformly highlighted very well. To solve this problem, an angular embedding technique is investigated to refine the saliency results. Based on pairwise local orderings, which are produced by the saliency maps of AMC and boundary maps, we rearrange the global orderings (saliency value) of all nodes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on six publicly available benchmark data sets.

  13. Tables of stark level transition probabilities and branching ratios in hydrogen-like atoms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Omidvar, K.

    1980-01-01

    The transition probabilities which are given in terms of n prime k prime and n k are tabulated. No additional summing or averaging is necessary. The electric quantum number k plays the role of the angular momentum quantum number l in the presence of an electric field. The branching ratios between stark levels are also tabulated. Necessary formulas for the transition probabilities and branching ratios are given. Symmetries are discussed and selection rules are given. Some disagreements for some branching ratios are found between the present calculation and the measurement of Mark and Wierl. The transition probability multiplied by the statistical weight of the initial state is called the static intensity J sub S, while the branching ratios are called the dynamic intensity J sub D.

  14. Human Inferences about Sequences: A Minimal Transition Probability Model

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The brain constantly infers the causes of the inputs it receives and uses these inferences to generate statistical expectations about future observations. Experimental evidence for these expectations and their violations include explicit reports, sequential effects on reaction times, and mismatch or surprise signals recorded in electrophysiology and functional MRI. Here, we explore the hypothesis that the brain acts as a near-optimal inference device that constantly attempts to infer the time-varying matrix of transition probabilities between the stimuli it receives, even when those stimuli are in fact fully unpredictable. This parsimonious Bayesian model, with a single free parameter, accounts for a broad range of findings on surprise signals, sequential effects and the perception of randomness. Notably, it explains the pervasive asymmetry between repetitions and alternations encountered in those studies. Our analysis suggests that a neural machinery for inferring transition probabilities lies at the core of human sequence knowledge. PMID:28030543

  15. Reliability analysis of redundant systems. [a method to compute transition probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yeh, H. Y.

    1974-01-01

    A method is proposed to compute the transition probability (the probability of partial or total failure) of parallel redundant system. The effect of geometry of the system, the direction of load, and the degree of redundancy on the probability of complete survival of parachute-like system are also studied. The results show that the probability of complete survival of three-member parachute-like system is very sensitive to the variation of horizontal angle of the load. However, it becomes very insignificant as the degree of redundancy increases.

  16. Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution

    PubMed Central

    Crawford, Forrest W.; Suchard, Marc A.

    2011-01-01

    A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with n current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate λn and a particle dies with instantaneous rate μn. Currently no robust and efficient method exists to evaluate the finite-time transition probabilities in a general birth-death process with arbitrary birth and death rates. In this paper, we first revisit the theory of continued fractions to obtain expressions for the Laplace transforms of these transition probabilities and make explicit an important derivation connecting transition probabilities and continued fractions. We then develop an efficient algorithm for computing these probabilities that analyzes the error associated with approximations in the method. We demonstrate that this error-controlled method agrees with known solutions and outperforms previous approaches to computing these probabilities. Finally, we apply our novel method to several important problems in ecology, evolution, and genetics. PMID:21984359

  17. Continuum ionization transition probabilities of atomic oxygen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Samson, J. A. R.; Petrosky, V. E.

    1974-01-01

    The technique of photoelectron spectroscopy was employed in the investigation. Atomic oxygen was produced in a microwave discharge operating at a power of 40 W and at a pressure of approximately 20 mtorr. The photoelectron spectrum of the oxygen with and without the discharge is shown. The atomic states can be clearly seen. In connection with the measurement of the probability for transitions into the various ionic states, the analyzer collection efficiency was determined as a function of electron energy.

  18. Absolute Transition Probabilities of Lines in the Spectra of Astrophysical Atoms, Molecules, and Ions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, W. H.; Smith, P. L.; Yoshino, K.

    1984-01-01

    Progress in the investigation of absolute transition probabilities (A-values or F values) for ultraviolet lines is reported. A radio frequency ion trap was used for measurement of transition probabilities for intersystem lines seen in astronomical spectra. The intersystem line at 2670 A in Al II, which is seen in pre-main sequence stars and symbiotic stars, was studied.

  19. Time-Varying Transition Probability Matrix Estimation and Its Application to Brand Share Analysis.

    PubMed

    Chiba, Tomoaki; Hino, Hideitsu; Akaho, Shotaro; Murata, Noboru

    2017-01-01

    In a product market or stock market, different products or stocks compete for the same consumers or purchasers. We propose a method to estimate the time-varying transition matrix of the product share using a multivariate time series of the product share. The method is based on the assumption that each of the observed time series of shares is a stationary distribution of the underlying Markov processes characterized by transition probability matrices. We estimate transition probability matrices for every observation under natural assumptions. We demonstrate, on a real-world dataset of the share of automobiles, that the proposed method can find intrinsic transition of shares. The resulting transition matrices reveal interesting phenomena, for example, the change in flows between TOYOTA group and GM group for the fiscal year where TOYOTA group's sales beat GM's sales, which is a reasonable scenario.

  20. The FERRUM Project: Experimental Transition Probabilities of [Fe II] and Astrophysical Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hartman, H.; Derkatch, A.; Donnelly, M. P.; Gull, T.; Hibbert, A.; Johannsson, S.; Lundberg, H.; Mannervik, S.; Norlin, L. -O.; Rostohar, D.

    2002-01-01

    We report on experimental transition probabilities for thirteen forbidden [Fe II] lines originating from three different metastable Fe II levels. Radiative lifetimes have been measured of two metastable states by applying a laser probing technique on a stored ion beam. Branching ratios for the radiative decay channels, i.e. M1 and E2 transitions, are derived from observed intensity ratios of forbidden lines in astrophysical spectra and compared with theoretical data. The lifetimes and branching ratios are combined to derive absolute transition probabilities, A-values. We present the first experimental lifetime values for the two Fe II levels a(sup 4)G(sub 9/2) and b(sup 2)H(sub 11/2) and A-values for 13 forbidden transitions from a(sup 6)S(sub 5/2), a(sup 4)G(sub 9/2) and b(sup 4)D(sub 7/2) in the optical region. A discrepancy between the measured and calculated values of the lifetime for the b(sup 2)H(sub 11/2) level is discussed in terms of level mixing. We have used the code CIV3 to calculate transition probabilities of the a(sup 6)D-a(sup 6)S transitions. We have also studied observational branching ratios for lines from 5 other metastable Fe II levels and compared them to calculated values. A consistency in the deviation between calibrated observational intensity ratios and theoretical branching ratios for lines in a wider wavelength region supports the use of [Fe II] lines for determination of reddening.

  1. Theoretical Study of Energy Levels and Transition Probabilities of Boron Atom

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian Yi, Zhang; Neng Wu, Zheng

    2009-08-01

    Full Text PDF Though the electrons configuration for boron atom is simple and boron atom has long been of interest for many researchers, the theoretical studies for properties of BI are not systematic, there are only few results reported on energy levels of high excited states of boron, and transition measurements are generally restricted to transitions involving ground states and low excited states without considering fine structure effects, provided only multiplet results, values for transitions between high excited states are seldom performed. In this article, by using the scheme of the weakest bound electron potential model theory calculations for energy levels of five series are performed and with the same method we give the transition probabilities between excited states with considering fine structure effects. The comprehensive set of calculations attempted in this paper could be of some value to workers in the field because of the lack of published calculations for the BI systems. The perturbations coming from foreign perturbers are taken into account in studying the energy levels. Good agreement between our results and the accepted values taken from NIST has been obtained. We also reported some values of energy levels and transition probabilities not existing on the NIST data bases.

  2. Time-Varying Transition Probability Matrix Estimation and Its Application to Brand Share Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Chiba, Tomoaki; Akaho, Shotaro; Murata, Noboru

    2017-01-01

    In a product market or stock market, different products or stocks compete for the same consumers or purchasers. We propose a method to estimate the time-varying transition matrix of the product share using a multivariate time series of the product share. The method is based on the assumption that each of the observed time series of shares is a stationary distribution of the underlying Markov processes characterized by transition probability matrices. We estimate transition probability matrices for every observation under natural assumptions. We demonstrate, on a real-world dataset of the share of automobiles, that the proposed method can find intrinsic transition of shares. The resulting transition matrices reveal interesting phenomena, for example, the change in flows between TOYOTA group and GM group for the fiscal year where TOYOTA group’s sales beat GM’s sales, which is a reasonable scenario. PMID:28076383

  3. Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications.

    PubMed

    Ho, Lam Si Tung; Xu, Jason; Crawford, Forrest W; Minin, Vladimir N; Suchard, Marc A

    2018-03-01

    Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods for evaluating finite-time transition probabilities of bivariate processes, however, has restricted statistical inference in these models. Researchers rely on computationally expensive methods such as matrix exponentiation or Monte Carlo approximation, restricting likelihood-based inference to small systems, or indirect methods such as approximate Bayesian computation. In this paper, we introduce the birth/birth-death process, a tractable bivariate extension of the birth-death process, where rates are allowed to be nonlinear. We develop an efficient algorithm to calculate its transition probabilities using a continued fraction representation of their Laplace transforms. Next, we identify several exemplary models arising in molecular epidemiology, macro-parasite evolution, and infectious disease modeling that fall within this class, and demonstrate advantages of our proposed method over existing approaches to inference in these models. Notably, the ubiquitous stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model falls within this class, and we emphasize that computable transition probabilities newly enable direct inference of parameters in the SIR model. We also propose a very fast method for approximating the transition probabilities under the SIR model via a novel branching process simplification, and compare it to the continued fraction representation method with application to the 17th century plague in Eyam. Although the two methods produce similar maximum a posteriori estimates, the branching process approximation fails to capture the correlation structure in the joint posterior distribution.

  4. Forbidden transition probabilities for ground terms of ions with p or p5 configurations. [for solar atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kastner, S. O.

    1976-01-01

    Forbidden transition probabilities are given for ground term transitions of ions in the isoelectronic sequences with outer configurations 2s2 2p (B I), 2p5 (F I), 3s2 3p (Al I), and 3p5 (Cl I). Tables give, for each ion, the ground term interval, the associated wavelength, the quadrupole radial integral, the electric quadrupole transition probability, and the magnetic dipole transition probability. Coronal lines due to some of these ions have been observed, while others are yet to be observed. The tales for the Al I and Cl I sequences include elements up to germanium.

  5. Reduced probabilities for E2 transitions between excited collective states of triaxial even–even nuclei

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Nadyrbekov, M. S., E-mail: nodirbekov@inp.uz; Bozarov, O. A.

    Reduced probabilities for intra- and interband E2 transitions in excited collective states of even–even lanthanide and actinide nuclei are analyzed on the basis of a model that admits an arbitrary triaxiality. They are studied in detail in the energy spectra of {sup 154}Sm, {sup 156}Gd, {sup 158}Dy, {sup 162,164}Er, {sup 230,232}Th, and {sup 232,234,236,238}U even–even nuclei. Theoretical and experimental values of the reduced probabilities for the respective E2 transitions are compared. This comparison shows good agreement for all states, including high-spin ones. The ratios of the reduced probabilities for the E2 transitions in question are compared with results following frommore » the Alaga rules. These comparisons make it possible to assess the sensitivity of the probabilities being considered to the presence of quadrupole deformations.« less

  6. The transition probability and the probability for the left-most particle's position of the q-totally asymmetric zero range process

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Korhonen, Marko; Lee, Eunghyun

    2014-01-15

    We treat the N-particle zero range process whose jumping rates satisfy a certain condition. This condition is required to use the Bethe ansatz and the resulting model is the q-boson model by Sasamoto and Wadati [“Exact results for one-dimensional totally asymmetric diffusion models,” J. Phys. A 31, 6057–6071 (1998)] or the q-totally asymmetric zero range process (TAZRP) by Borodin and Corwin [“Macdonald processes,” Probab. Theory Relat. Fields (to be published)]. We find the explicit formula of the transition probability of the q-TAZRP via the Bethe ansatz. By using the transition probability we find the probability distribution of the left-most particle'smore » position at time t. To find the probability for the left-most particle's position we find a new identity corresponding to identity for the asymmetric simple exclusion process by Tracy and Widom [“Integral formulas for the asymmetric simple exclusion process,” Commun. Math. Phys. 279, 815–844 (2008)]. For the initial state that all particles occupy a single site, the probability distribution of the left-most particle's position at time t is represented by the contour integral of a determinant.« less

  7. Accurate step-hold tracking of smoothly varying periodic and aperiodic probability.

    PubMed

    Ricci, Matthew; Gallistel, Randy

    2017-07-01

    Subjects observing many samples from a Bernoulli distribution are able to perceive an estimate of the generating parameter. A question of fundamental importance is how the current percept-what we think the probability now is-depends on the sequence of observed samples. Answers to this question are strongly constrained by the manner in which the current percept changes in response to changes in the hidden parameter. Subjects do not update their percept trial-by-trial when the hidden probability undergoes unpredictable and unsignaled step changes; instead, they update it only intermittently in a step-hold pattern. It could be that the step-hold pattern is not essential to the perception of probability and is only an artifact of step changes in the hidden parameter. However, we now report that the step-hold pattern obtains even when the parameter varies slowly and smoothly. It obtains even when the smooth variation is periodic (sinusoidal) and perceived as such. We elaborate on a previously published theory that accounts for: (i) the quantitative properties of the step-hold update pattern; (ii) subjects' quick and accurate reporting of changes; (iii) subjects' second thoughts about previously reported changes; (iv) subjects' detection of higher-order structure in patterns of change. We also call attention to the challenges these results pose for trial-by-trial updating theories.

  8. Investigating rare events with nonequilibrium work measurements. I. Nonequilibrium transition path probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moradi, Mahmoud; Sagui, Celeste; Roland, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    We have developed a formalism for investigating transition pathways and transition probabilities for rare events in biomolecular systems. In this paper, we set the theoretical framework for employing nonequilibrium work relations to estimate the relative reaction rates associated with different classes of transition pathways. Particularly, we derive an extension of Crook's transient fluctuation theorem, which relates the relative transition rates of driven systems in the forward and reverse directions, and allows for the calculation of these relative rates using work measurements (e.g., in Steered Molecular Dynamics). The formalism presented here can be combined with Transition Path Theory to relate the equilibrium and driven transition rates. The usefulness of this framework is illustrated by means of a Gaussian model and a driven proline dimer.

  9. Estimating state-transition probabilities for unobservable states using capture-recapture/resighting data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

    2002-01-01

    Temporary emigration was identified some time ago as causing potential problems in capture-recapture studies, and in the last five years approaches have been developed for dealing with special cases of this general problem. Temporary emigration can be viewed more generally as involving transitions to and from an unobservable state, and frequently the state itself is one of biological interest (e.g., 'nonbreeder'). Development of models that permit estimation of relevant parameters in the presence of an unobservable state requires either extra information (e.g., as supplied by Pollock's robust design) or the following classes of model constraints: reducing the order of Markovian transition probabilities, imposing a degree of determinism on transition probabilities, removing state specificity of survival probabilities, and imposing temporal constancy of parameters. The objective of the work described in this paper is to investigate estimability of model parameters under a variety of models that include an unobservable state. Beginning with a very general model and no extra information, we used numerical methods to systematically investigate the use of ancillary information and constraints to yield models that are useful for estimation. The result is a catalog of models for which estimation is possible. An example analysis of sea turtle capture-recapture data under two different models showed similar point estimates but increased precision for the model that incorporated ancillary data (the robust design) when compared to the model with deterministic transitions only. This comparison and the results of our numerical investigation of model structures lead to design suggestions for capture-recapture studies in the presence of an unobservable state.

  10. Scale-Invariant Transition Probabilities in Free Word Association Trajectories

    PubMed Central

    Costa, Martin Elias; Bonomo, Flavia; Sigman, Mariano

    2009-01-01

    Free-word association has been used as a vehicle to understand the organization of human thoughts. The original studies relied mainly on qualitative assertions, yielding the widely intuitive notion that trajectories of word associations are structured, yet considerably more random than organized linguistic text. Here we set to determine a precise characterization of this space, generating a large number of word association trajectories in a web implemented game. We embedded the trajectories in the graph of word co-occurrences from a linguistic corpus. To constrain possible transport models we measured the memory loss and the cycling probability. These two measures could not be reconciled by a bounded diffusive model since the cycling probability was very high (16% of order-2 cycles) implying a majority of short-range associations whereas the memory loss was very rapid (converging to the asymptotic value in ∼7 steps) which, in turn, forced a high fraction of long-range associations. We show that memory loss and cycling probabilities of free word association trajectories can be simultaneously accounted by a model in which transitions are determined by a scale invariant probability distribution. PMID:19826622

  11. Recursive recovery of Markov transition probabilities from boundary value data

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Patch, Sarah Kathyrn

    1994-04-01

    In an effort to mathematically describe the anisotropic diffusion of infrared radiation in biological tissue Gruenbaum posed an anisotropic diffusion boundary value problem in 1989. In order to accommodate anisotropy, he discretized the temporal as well as the spatial domain. The probabilistic interpretation of the diffusion equation is retained; radiation is assumed to travel according to a random walk (of sorts). In this random walk the probabilities with which photons change direction depend upon their previous as well as present location. The forward problem gives boundary value data as a function of the Markov transition probabilities. The inverse problem requiresmore » finding the transition probabilities from boundary value data. Problems in the plane are studied carefully in this thesis. Consistency conditions amongst the data are derived. These conditions have two effects: they prohibit inversion of the forward map but permit smoothing of noisy data. Next, a recursive algorithm which yields a family of solutions to the inverse problem is detailed. This algorithm takes advantage of all independent data and generates a system of highly nonlinear algebraic equations. Pluecker-Grassmann relations are instrumental in simplifying the equations. The algorithm is used to solve the 4 x 4 problem. Finally, the smallest nontrivial problem in three dimensions, the 2 x 2 x 2 problem, is solved.« less

  12. VizieR Online Data Catalog: KOI transit probabilities of multi-planet syst. (Brakensiek+, 2016)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brakensiek, J.; Ragozzine, D.

    2016-06-01

    Using CORBITS, we computed the transit probabilities of all the KOIs with at least three candidate or confirmed transiting planets and report the results in Table 2 for a variety of inclination distributions. See section 4.6. (1 data file).

  13. Learning in Reverse: Eight-Month-Old Infants Track Backward Transitional Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pelucchi, Bruna; Hay, Jessica F.; Saffran, Jenny R.

    2009-01-01

    Numerous recent studies suggest that human learners, including both infants and adults, readily track sequential statistics computed between adjacent elements. One such statistic, transitional probability, is typically calculated as the likelihood that one element predicts another. However, little is known about whether listeners are sensitive to…

  14. Transition moments, radiative transition probabilities, and radiative lifetimes for the band systems A 2Π-X 2Σ+, B 2Σ+-X 2Σ+, and A 2Π-A´ 2Δ of scandium monosulfide, ScS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romeu, João Gabriel Farias; Belinassi, Antonio Ricardo; Ornellas, Fernando R.

    2018-05-01

    A manifold of electronic states of ScS was investigated with special emphasis on the low-lying states X 2Σ+, A´ 2Δ, A 2Π, and B 2Σ+. For all states, potential energy curves were constructed covering internuclear distances from the equilibrium region through the dissociation limit. For the above states, besides providing the most accurate set of theoretical spectroscopic parameters to date, we have also computed dipole moment functions, transitions dipole moment functions, the associated radiative transition probabilities, and radiative lifetimes. For the states known experimentally, X 2Σ+, A 2Π, and B 2Σ+, our results significantly expand our present knowledge of the energetic profile of these states thus providing a new perspective for understanding the limited spectral data for this species known so far. For the new state, A´ 2Δ, yet unobserved experimentally, our results are sufficiently reliable and accurate to guide spectroscopists on further studies of this species.

  15. The reduced transition probabilities for excited states of rare-earths and actinide even-even nuclei

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ghumman, S. S.

    The theoretical B(E2) ratios have been calculated on DF, DR and Krutov models. A simple method based on the work of Arima and Iachello is used to calculate the reduced transition probabilities within SU(3) limit of IBA-I framework. The reduced E2 transition probabilities from second excited states of rare-earths and actinide even–even nuclei calculated from experimental energies and intensities from recent data, have been found to compare better with those calculated on the Krutov model and the SU(3) limit of IBA than the DR and DF models.

  16. Transition probabilities in neutron-rich Se,8684

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litzinger, J.; Blazhev, A.; Dewald, A.; Didierjean, F.; Duchêne, G.; Fransen, C.; Lozeva, R.; Sieja, K.; Verney, D.; de Angelis, G.; Bazzacco, D.; Birkenbach, B.; Bottoni, S.; Bracco, A.; Braunroth, T.; Cederwall, B.; Corradi, L.; Crespi, F. C. L.; Désesquelles, P.; Eberth, J.; Ellinger, E.; Farnea, E.; Fioretto, E.; Gernhäuser, R.; Goasduff, A.; Görgen, A.; Gottardo, A.; Grebosz, J.; Hackstein, M.; Hess, H.; Ibrahim, F.; Jolie, J.; Jungclaus, A.; Kolos, K.; Korten, W.; Leoni, S.; Lunardi, S.; Maj, A.; Menegazzo, R.; Mengoni, D.; Michelagnoli, C.; Mijatovic, T.; Million, B.; Möller, O.; Modamio, V.; Montagnoli, G.; Montanari, D.; Morales, A. I.; Napoli, D. R.; Niikura, M.; Pollarolo, G.; Pullia, A.; Quintana, B.; Recchia, F.; Reiter, P.; Rosso, D.; Sahin, E.; Salsac, M. D.; Scarlassara, F.; Söderström, P.-A.; Stefanini, A. M.; Stezowski, O.; Szilner, S.; Theisen, Ch.; Valiente Dobón, J. J.; Vandone, V.; Vogt, A.

    2015-12-01

    Reduced quadrupole transition probabilities for low-lying transitions in neutron-rich Se,8684 are investigated with a recoil distance Doppler shift (RDDS) experiment. The experiment was performed at the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro using the Cologne Plunger device for the RDDS technique and the AGATA Demonstrator array for the γ -ray detection coupled to the PRISMA magnetic spectrometer for an event-by-event particle identification. In 86Se the level lifetime of the yrast 21+ state and an upper limit for the lifetime of the 41+ state are determined for the first time. The results of 86Se are in agreement with previously reported predictions of large-scale shell-model calculations using Ni78-I and Ni78-II effective interactions. In addition, intrinsic shape parameters of lowest yrast states in 86Se are calculated. In semimagic 84Se level lifetimes of the yrast 41+ and 61+ states are determined for the first time. Large-scale shell-model calculations using effective interactions Ni78-II, JUN45, jj4b, and jj4pna are performed. The calculations describe B (E 2 ;21+→01+) and B (E 2 ;61+→41+) fairly well and point out problems in reproducing the experimental B (E 2 ;41+→21+) .

  17. Reduced transition probabilities along the yrast line in 166W

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayǧı, B.; Joss, D. T.; Page, R. D.; Grahn, T.; Simpson, J.; O'Donnell, D.; Alharshan, G.; Auranen, K.; Bäck, T.; Boening, S.; Braunroth, T.; Carroll, R. J.; Cederwall, B.; Cullen, D. M.; Dewald, A.; Doncel, M.; Donosa, L.; Drummond, M. C.; Ertuǧral, F.; Ertürk, S.; Fransen, C.; Greenlees, P. T.; Hackstein, M.; Hauschild, K.; Herzan, A.; Jakobsson, U.; Jones, P. M.; Julin, R.; Juutinen, S.; Konki, J.; Kröll, T.; Labiche, M.; Lopez-Martens, A.; McPeake, C. G.; Moradi, F.; Möller, O.; Mustafa, M.; Nieminen, P.; Pakarinen, J.; Partanen, J.; Peura, P.; Procter, M.; Rahkila, P.; Rother, W.; Ruotsalainen, P.; Sandzelius, M.; Sarén, J.; Scholey, C.; Sorri, J.; Stolze, S.; Taylor, M. J.; Thornthwaite, A.; Uusitalo, J.

    2017-08-01

    Lifetimes of excited states in the yrast band of the neutron-deficient nuclide 166W have been measured utilizing the DPUNS plunger device at the target position of the JUROGAM II γ -ray spectrometer in conjunction with the RITU gas-filled separator and the GREAT focal-plane spectrometer. Excited states in 166W were populated in the 92Mo(78Kr,4 p ) reaction at a bombarding energy of 380 MeV. The measurements reveal a low value for the ratio of reduced transitions probabilities for the lowest-lying transitions B (E 2 ;4+→2+) /B (E 2 ;2+→0+) =0.33 (5 ) , compared with the expected ratio for an axially deformed rotor (B4 /2 = 1.43).

  18. Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

    DOE PAGES

    Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

    2018-01-01

    In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

  19. Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

    In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

  20. Impulsive synchronization of Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities via multiple integral approach.

    PubMed

    Chandrasekar, A; Rakkiyappan, R; Cao, Jinde

    2015-10-01

    This paper studies the impulsive synchronization of Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities via multiple integral approach. The array of neural networks are coupled in a random fashion which is governed by Bernoulli random variable. The aim of this paper is to obtain the synchronization criteria, which is suitable for both exactly known and partly unknown transition probabilities such that the coupled neural network is synchronized with mixed time-delay. The considered impulsive effects can be synchronized at partly unknown transition probabilities. Besides, a multiple integral approach is also proposed to strengthen the Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities. By making use of Kronecker product and some useful integral inequalities, a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional was designed for handling the coupled neural network with mixed delay and then impulsive synchronization criteria are solvable in a set of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Transition probability functions for applications of inelastic electron scattering

    PubMed Central

    Löffler, Stefan; Schattschneider, Peter

    2012-01-01

    In this work, the transition matrix elements for inelastic electron scattering are investigated which are the central quantity for interpreting experiments. The angular part is given by spherical harmonics. For the weighted radial wave function overlap, analytic expressions are derived in the Slater-type and the hydrogen-like orbital models. These expressions are shown to be composed of a finite sum of polynomials and elementary trigonometric functions. Hence, they are easy to use, require little computation time, and are significantly more accurate than commonly used approximations. PMID:22560709

  2. Calculating Absolute Transition Probabilities for Deformed Nuclei in the Rare-Earth Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stratman, Anne; Casarella, Clark; Aprahamian, Ani

    2017-09-01

    Absolute transition probabilities are the cornerstone of understanding nuclear structure physics in comparison to nuclear models. We have developed a code to calculate absolute transition probabilities from measured lifetimes, using a Python script and a Mathematica notebook. Both of these methods take pertinent quantities such as the lifetime of a given state, the energy and intensity of the emitted gamma ray, and the multipolarities of the transitions to calculate the appropriate B(E1), B(E2), B(M1) or in general, any B(σλ) values. The program allows for the inclusion of mixing ratios of different multipolarities and the electron conversion of gamma-rays to correct for their intensities, and yields results in absolute units or results normalized to Weisskopf units. The code has been tested against available data in a wide range of nuclei from the rare earth region (28 in total), including 146-154Sm, 154-160Gd, 158-164Dy, 162-170Er, 168-176Yb, and 174-182Hf. It will be available from the Notre Dame Nuclear Science Laboratory webpage for use by the community. This work was supported by the University of Notre Dame College of Science, and by the National Science Foundation, under Contract PHY-1419765.

  3. Effects of Contextual Predictability and Transitional Probability on Eye Movements During Reading

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frisson, Steven; Rayner, Keith; Pickering, Martin J.

    2005-01-01

    In 2 eye-movement experiments, the authors tested whether transitional probability (the statistical likelihood that a word precedes or follows another word) affects reading times and whether this occurs independently from contextual predictability effects. Experiment 1 showed early effects of predictability, replicating S. A. McDonald and R. C.…

  4. Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling.

    PubMed

    Kwasniok, Frank

    2013-11-01

    A time series analysis method for predicting the probability density of a dynamical system is proposed. A nonstationary parametric model of the probability density is estimated from data within a maximum likelihood framework and then extrapolated to forecast the future probability density and explore the system for critical transitions or tipping points. A full systematic account of parameter uncertainty is taken. The technique is generic, independent of the underlying dynamics of the system. The method is verified on simulated data and then applied to prediction of Arctic sea-ice extent.

  5. Accurate estimations of electromagnetic transitions of Sn IV for stellar and interstellar media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biswas, Swapan; Das, Arghya; Bhowmik, Anal; Majumder, Sonjoy

    2018-04-01

    Here we report on accurate ab initio calculations to study astrophysically important electromagnetic transition parameters among different low-lying states of Sn IV. Our ab initio calculations are based on the sophisticated relativistic coupled-cluster theory, which almost exhausts many important electron correlations. To establish the accuracy of the calculations, we compare our results with the available experiments and estimates the transition amplitudes in length and velocity gauged forms. Most of these allowed and forbidden transition wavelengths lie in the infrared region, and they can be observed in the different cool stellar and interstellar media. For the improvement of uncertainty, we use experimental energies to the estimations of the above transition parameters. The presented data will be helpful to find the abundances of the ion in different astrophysical and laboratory plasma.

  6. Accurate estimations of electromagnetic transitions of Sn IV for stellar and interstellar media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biswas, Swapan; Das, Arghya; Bhowmik, Anal; Majumder, Sonjoy

    2018-07-01

    Here, we report on accurate ab initio calculations to study astrophysically important electromagnetic transition parameters among different low-lying states of Sn IV. Our ab initio calculations are based on the sophisticated relativistic coupled cluster theory, which almost exhausts many important electron correlations. To establish the accuracy of the calculations, we compare our results with the available experiments and estimate the transition amplitudes in length and velocity gauged forms. Most of these allowed and forbidden transition wavelengths lie in the infrared region, and they can be observed in the different cool stellar and interstellar media. For the improvement of uncertainty, we use experimental energies to the estimations of the above transition parameters. The presented data will be helpful to find the abundances of the ion in different astrophysical and laboratory plasma.

  7. Experimental transition probabilities for Mn II spectral lines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manrique, J.; Aguilera, J. A.; Aragón, C.

    2018-06-01

    Transition probabilities for 46 spectral lines of Mn II with wavelengths in the range 2000-3500 Å have been measured by CSigma laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (Cσ-LIBS). For 28 of the lines, experimental data had not been reported previously. The Cσ-LIBS method, based in the construction of generalized curves of growth called Cσ graphs, avoids the error due to self-absorption. The samples used to generate the laser-induced plasmas are fused glass disks prepared from pure MnO. The Mn concentrations in the samples and the lines included in the study are selected to ensure the validity of the model of homogeneous plasma used. The results are compared to experimental and theoretical values available in the literature.

  8. Transitional probability-based model for HPV clearance in HIV-1-positive adolescent females.

    PubMed

    Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Sudenga, Staci L; Wilson, Craig M; Levitan, Emily B; Shrestha, Sadeep

    2012-01-01

    HIV-1-positive patients clear the human papillomavirus (HPV) infection less frequently than HIV-1-negative. Datasets for estimating HPV clearance probability often have irregular measurements of HPV status and risk factors. A new transitional probability-based model for estimation of probability of HPV clearance was developed to fully incorporate information on HIV-1-related clinical data, such as CD4 counts, HIV-1 viral load (VL), highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), and risk factors (measured quarterly), and HPV infection status (measured at 6-month intervals). Data from 266 HIV-1-positive and 134 at-risk HIV-1-negative adolescent females from the Reaching for Excellence in Adolescent Care and Health (REACH) cohort were used in this study. First, the associations were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazard model, and the variables that demonstrated significant effects on HPV clearance were included in transitional probability models. The new model established the efficacy of CD4 cell counts as a main clearance predictor for all type-specific HPV phylogenetic groups. The 3-month probability of HPV clearance in HIV-1-infected patients significantly increased with increasing CD4 counts for HPV16/16-like (p<0.001), HPV18/18-like (p<0.001), HPV56/56-like (p = 0.05), and low-risk HPV (p<0.001) phylogenetic groups, with the lowest probability found for HPV16/16-like infections (21.60±1.81% at CD4 level 200 cells/mm(3), p<0.05; and 28.03±1.47% at CD4 level 500 cells/mm(3)). HIV-1 VL was a significant predictor for clearance of low-risk HPV infections (p<0.05). HAART (with protease inhibitor) was significant predictor of probability of HPV16 clearance (p<0.05). HPV16/16-like and HPV18/18-like groups showed heterogeneity (p<0.05) in terms of how CD4 counts, HIV VL, and HAART affected probability of clearance of each HPV infection. This new model predicts the 3-month probability of HPV infection clearance based on CD4 cell counts and other HIV-1-related

  9. Analysis of a semiclassical model for rotational transition probabilities. [in highly nonequilibrium flow of diatomic molecules

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deiwert, G. S.; Yoshikawa, K. K.

    1975-01-01

    A semiclassical model proposed by Pearson and Hansen (1974) for computing collision-induced transition probabilities in diatomic molecules is tested by the direct-simulation Monte Carlo method. Specifically, this model is described by point centers of repulsion for collision dynamics, and the resulting classical trajectories are used in conjunction with the Schroedinger equation for a rigid-rotator harmonic oscillator to compute the rotational energy transition probabilities necessary to evaluate the rotation-translation exchange phenomena. It is assumed that a single, average energy spacing exists between the initial state and possible final states for a given collision.

  10. Spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments and transition probabilities of the 9 low-lying states of the NCl+ cation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yuan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2018-03-01

    This work calculates the potential energy curves of 9 Λ-S and 28 Ω states of the NCl+ cation. The technique employed is the complete active space self-consistent field method, which is followed by the internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with the Davidson correction. The Λ-S states are X2Π, 12Σ+, 14Π, 14Σ+, 14Σ-, 24Π, 14Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π, which are yielded from the first two dissociation channels of NCl+ cation. The Ω states are generated from these Λ-S states. The 14Π, 14Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π states are inverted with the spin-orbit coupling effect included. The 14Σ+, 16Σ+, and 16Π states are very weakly bound, whose well depths are only several-hundred cm- 1. One avoided crossing of PECs occurs between the 12Σ+ and 22Σ+ states. To improve the quality of potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections are included. The potential energies are extrapolated to the complete basis set limit. The spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are calculated. The transition dipole moments are computed. The Franck-Condon factors, Einstein coefficients, and radiative lifetimes of many transitions are determined. The spectroscopic approaches are proposed for observing these states according to the transition probabilities. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic and vibrational properties is evaluated. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments, as well as transition probabilities reported in this paper could be considered to be very reliable.

  11. The Time Course of the Probability of Transition Into and Out of REM Sleep

    PubMed Central

    Bassi, Alejandro; Vivaldi, Ennio A.; Ocampo-Garcés, Adrián

    2009-01-01

    Study Objectives: A model of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep expression is proposed that assumes underlying regulatory mechanisms operating as inhomogenous Poisson processes, the overt results of which are the transitions into and out of REM sleep. Design: Based on spontaneously occurring REM sleep episodes (“Episode”) and intervals without REM sleep (“Interval”), 3 variables are defined and evaluated over discrete 15-second epochs using a nonlinear logistic regression method: “Propensity” is the instantaneous rate of into-REM transition occurrence throughout an Interval, “Volatility” is the instantaneous rate of out-of-REM transition occurrence throughout an Episode, and “Opportunity” is the probability of being in non-REM (NREM) sleep at a given time throughout an Interval, a requisite for transition. Setting: 12:12 light:dark cycle, isolated boxes. Participants: Sixteen male Sprague-Dawley rats Interventions: None. Spontaneous sleep cycles. Measurements and Results: The highest levels of volatility and propensity occur, respectively, at the very beginning of Episodes and Intervals. The new condition stabilizes rapidly, and variables reach nadirs at minute 1.25 and 2.50, respectively. Afterward, volatility increases markedly, reaching values close to the initial level. Propensity increases moderately, the increment being stronger through NREM sleep bouts occurring at the end of long Intervals. Short-term homeostasis is evidenced by longer REM sleep episodes lowering propensity in the following Interval. Conclusions: The stabilization after transitions into Episodes or Intervals and the destabilization after remaining for some time in either condition may be described as resulting from continuous processes building up during Episodes and Intervals. These processes underlie the overt occurrence of transitions. Citation: Bassi A; Vivaldi EA; Ocampo-Garcées A. The time course of the probability of transition into and out of REM sleep. SLEEP 2009

  12. Molecular Simulation of the Free Energy for the Accurate Determination of Phase Transition Properties of Molecular Solids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sellers, Michael; Lisal, Martin; Brennan, John

    2015-06-01

    Investigating the ability of a molecular model to accurately represent a real material is crucial to model development and use. When the model simulates materials in extreme conditions, one such property worth evaluating is the phase transition point. However, phase transitions are often overlooked or approximated because of difficulty or inaccuracy when simulating them. Techniques such as super-heating or super-squeezing a material to induce a phase change suffer from inherent timescale limitations leading to ``over-driving,'' and dual-phase simulations require many long-time runs to seek out what frequently results in an inexact location of phase-coexistence. We present a compilation of methods for the determination of solid-solid and solid-liquid phase transition points through the accurate calculation of the chemical potential. The methods are applied to the Smith-Bharadwaj atomistic potential's representation of cyclotrimethylene trinitramine (RDX) to accurately determine its melting point (Tm) and the alpha to gamma solid phase transition pressure. We also determine Tm for a coarse-grain model of RDX, and compare its value to experiment and atomistic counterpart. All methods are employed via the LAMMPS simulator, resulting in 60-70 simulations that total 30-50 ns. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

  13. Judging the Probability of Hypotheses Versus the Impact of Evidence: Which Form of Inductive Inference Is More Accurate and Time-Consistent?

    PubMed

    Tentori, Katya; Chater, Nick; Crupi, Vincenzo

    2016-04-01

    Inductive reasoning requires exploiting links between evidence and hypotheses. This can be done focusing either on the posterior probability of the hypothesis when updated on the new evidence or on the impact of the new evidence on the credibility of the hypothesis. But are these two cognitive representations equally reliable? This study investigates this question by comparing probability and impact judgments on the same experimental materials. The results indicate that impact judgments are more consistent in time and more accurate than probability judgments. Impact judgments also predict the direction of errors in probability judgments. These findings suggest that human inductive reasoning relies more on estimating evidential impact than on posterior probability. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  14. Quantum transition probabilities during a perturbing pulse: Differences between the nonadiabatic results and Fermi's golden rule forms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandal, Anirban; Hunt, Katharine L. C.

    2018-05-01

    For a perturbed quantum system initially in the ground state, the coefficient ck(t) of excited state k in the time-dependent wave function separates into adiabatic and nonadiabatic terms. The adiabatic term ak(t) accounts for the adjustment of the original ground state to form the new ground state of the instantaneous Hamiltonian H(t), by incorporating excited states of the unperturbed Hamiltonian H0 without transitions; ak(t) follows the adiabatic theorem of Born and Fock. The nonadiabatic term bk(t) describes excitation into another quantum state k; bk(t) is obtained as an integral containing the time derivative of the perturbation. The true transition probability is given by |bk(t)|2, as first stated by Landau and Lifshitz. In this work, we contrast |bk(t)|2 and |ck(t)|2. The latter is the norm-square of the entire excited-state coefficient which is used for the transition probability within Fermi's golden rule. Calculations are performed for a perturbing pulse consisting of a cosine or sine wave in a Gaussian envelope. When the transition frequency ωk0 is on resonance with the frequency ω of the cosine wave, |bk(t)|2 and |ck(t)|2 rise almost monotonically to the same final value; the two are intertwined, but they are out of phase with each other. Off resonance (when ωk0 ≠ ω), |bk(t)|2 and |ck(t)|2 differ significantly during the pulse. They oscillate out of phase and reach different maxima but then fall off to equal final values after the pulse has ended, when ak(t) ≡ 0. If ωk0 < ω, |bk(t)|2 generally exceeds |ck(t)|2, while the opposite is true when ωk0 > ω. While the transition probability is rising, the midpoints between successive maxima and minima fit Gaussian functions of the form a exp[-b(t - d)2]. To our knowledge, this is the first analysis of nonadiabatic transition probabilities during a perturbing pulse.

  15. Transition probability-based stochastic geological modeling using airborne geophysical data and borehole data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Xin; Koch, Julian; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Jørgensen, Flemming; Schamper, Cyril; Christian Refsgaard, Jens

    2014-04-01

    Geological heterogeneity is a very important factor to consider when developing geological models for hydrological purposes. Using statistically based stochastic geological simulations, the spatial heterogeneity in such models can be accounted for. However, various types of uncertainties are associated with both the geostatistical method and the observation data. In the present study, TProGS is used as the geostatistical modeling tool to simulate structural heterogeneity for glacial deposits in a head water catchment in Denmark. The focus is on how the observation data uncertainty can be incorporated in the stochastic simulation process. The study uses two types of observation data: borehole data and airborne geophysical data. It is commonly acknowledged that the density of the borehole data is usually too sparse to characterize the horizontal heterogeneity. The use of geophysical data gives an unprecedented opportunity to obtain high-resolution information and thus to identify geostatistical properties more accurately especially in the horizontal direction. However, since such data are not a direct measurement of the lithology, larger uncertainty of point estimates can be expected as compared to the use of borehole data. We have proposed a histogram probability matching method in order to link the information on resistivity to hydrofacies, while considering the data uncertainty at the same time. Transition probabilities and Markov Chain models are established using the transformed geophysical data. It is shown that such transformation is in fact practical; however, the cutoff value for dividing the resistivity data into facies is difficult to determine. The simulated geological realizations indicate significant differences of spatial structure depending on the type of conditioning data selected. It is to our knowledge the first time that grid-to-grid airborne geophysical data including the data uncertainty are used in conditional geostatistical simulations in TPro

  16. Tables of Transition Probabilities and Branching Ratios for Electric Dipole Transitions Between Arbitrary Levels of Hydrogen-Like Atoms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Omidvar, K.

    1980-01-01

    Branching ratios in hydrogen-like atoms due to electric-dipole transitions are tabulated for the initial principal and angular momentum quantum number n, lambda, and final principal and angular momentum quantum numbers n, lambda. In table 1, transition probabilities are given for transitions n, lambda, yields n, where sums have been made with respect to lambda. In this table, 2 or = n' or = 10, o or = lambda' or = n'-1, and 1 or = n or = n'-1. In addition, averages with respect to lambda' and sums with respect to n, and lifetimes are given. In table 2, branching ratios are given for transitions n' lambda' yields ni, where sums have been made with respect to lambda. In these tables, 2 or = n' or = 10, 0 or = lambda', n'-1, and 1 or = n or = n'-1. Averages with respect to lambda' are also given. In table 3, branching ratios are given for transitions n' lambda' yields in lambda, where 1 or = n or = 5, 0 or = lambda or = n-1, n n' or = 15, and 0 or = lambda' or = n(s), where n(s), is the smaller of the two numbers n'-1 and 6. Averages with respect to lambda' are given.

  17. Dipole moments and transition probabilities of the a 3Sigma(+)g - b 3Sigma(+)u system of molecular hydrogen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guberman, S.; Dalgarno, A.; Posen, A.; Kwok, T. L.

    1986-01-01

    Multiconfiguration variational calculations of the electronic wave functions of the a 3Sigma(+)g and b 3Sigma(+)u states of molecular hydrogen are presented, and the electric dipole transition moment between them (of interest in connection with stellar atmospheres and the UV spectrum of the Jovian planets) is obtained. The dipole moment is used to calculate the probabilities of radiative transitions from the discrete vibrational levels of the a 3Sigma(+)g state to the vibrational continuum of the repulsive b 3Sigma(+)u state as functions of the wavelength of the emitted photons. The total transition probabilities and radiative lifetimes of the levels v prime = 0-20 are presented.

  18. Transition Probabilities of Emissions and Rotationless Radiative Lifetimes of Vibrational Levels for the PO Radical

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yuan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2018-06-01

    This work investigates the transition dipole moments (TDMs) and transition probabilities of electric dipole emissions between the X2Π, B2Σ+, B‧2Π, D‧2Π, C2Σ‑, C‧2Δ, F2Σ+, and P2Π states of the PO radical. The TDMs of 23 pairs of states are calculated by the internally contracted multireference configuration method with the aug-cc-pV6Z basis set. The vibrational band origins, Franck–Condon factors, and Einstein coefficients of all the spontaneous emissions are evaluated. The rotationless radiative lifetimes of the vibrational levels are approximately 10‑7–10‑8 s for the B2Σ+, C2Σ‑, C‧2Δ, P2Π, and F2Σ+ states; 10‑4–10‑5 s for the B‧2Π state; and 10‑1–10‑2 s for the D‧2Π state. The Einstein coefficients of many emissions are large for the B2Σ+–X2Π, B‧2Π–X2Π, C‧2Δ–X2Π, C2Σ‑–X2Π, F2Σ+–X2Π, P2Π–X2Π, P2Π–B‧2Π, and P2Π–D‧2Π systems. Almost all the spontaneous emissions arising from the D‧2Π state are very weak. The vibrational band origins of these emissions extend from the UV into the far-infrared spectra. The radiative lifetimes and vibrational band origins are compared with available experimental and theoretical values. According to the radiative lifetimes and transition probabilities obtained in this paper, some guidelines for detecting these states spectroscopically are proposed. The TDMs and transition probabilities reported here are considered to be reliable and can be used as guidelines for detecting similar transitions, especially those in interstellar space.

  19. Under the hood of statistical learning: A statistical MMN reflects the magnitude of transitional probabilities in auditory sequences.

    PubMed

    Koelsch, Stefan; Busch, Tobias; Jentschke, Sebastian; Rohrmeier, Martin

    2016-02-02

    Within the framework of statistical learning, many behavioural studies investigated the processing of unpredicted events. However, surprisingly few neurophysiological studies are available on this topic, and no statistical learning experiment has investigated electroencephalographic (EEG) correlates of processing events with different transition probabilities. We carried out an EEG study with a novel variant of the established statistical learning paradigm. Timbres were presented in isochronous sequences of triplets. The first two sounds of all triplets were equiprobable, while the third sound occurred with either low (10%), intermediate (30%), or high (60%) probability. Thus, the occurrence probability of the third item of each triplet (given the first two items) was varied. Compared to high-probability triplet endings, endings with low and intermediate probability elicited an early anterior negativity that had an onset around 100 ms and was maximal at around 180 ms. This effect was larger for events with low than for events with intermediate probability. Our results reveal that, when predictions are based on statistical learning, events that do not match a prediction evoke an early anterior negativity, with the amplitude of this mismatch response being inversely related to the probability of such events. Thus, we report a statistical mismatch negativity (sMMN) that reflects statistical learning of transitional probability distributions that go beyond auditory sensory memory capabilities.

  20. Implicit Segmentation of a Stream of Syllables Based on Transitional Probabilities: An MEG Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Teinonen, Tuomas; Huotilainen, Minna

    2012-01-01

    Statistical segmentation of continuous speech, i.e., the ability to utilise transitional probabilities between syllables in order to detect word boundaries, is reflected in the brain's auditory event-related potentials (ERPs). The N1 and N400 ERP components are typically enhanced for word onsets compared to random syllables during active…

  1. Theoretical transition probabilities, oscillator strengths, and radiative lifetimes of levels in Pb IV

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Alonso-Medina, A.; Colon, C., E-mail: cristobal.colon@upm.e; Porcher, P.

    2011-01-15

    Transition probabilities and oscillator strengths of 176 spectral lines with astrophysical interest arising from 5d{sup 10}ns (n = 7,8), 5d{sup 10}np (n = 6,7), 5d{sup 10}nd (n = 6,7), 5d{sup 10}5f, 5d{sup 10}5g, 5d{sup 10}nh (n = 6,7,8), 5d{sup 9}6s{sup 2}, and 5d{sup 9}6s6p configurations, and radiative lifetimes for 43 levels of Pb IV, have been calculated. These values were obtained in intermediate coupling (IC) and using relativistic Hartree-Fock calculations including core-polarization effects. For the IC calculations, we use the standard method of least-square fitting from experimental energy levels by means of the Cowan computer code. The inclusion in thesemore » calculations of the 5d{sup 10}7p and 5d{sup 10}5f configurations has facilitated a complete assignment of the energy levels in the Pb IV. Transition probabilities, oscillator strengths, and radiative lifetimes obtained are generally in good agreement with the experimental data.« less

  2. Transition probability of the Si III 189.2-nm intersystem line

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kwong, H. S.; Johnson, B. C.; Smith, P. L.; Parkinson, W. H.

    1983-01-01

    Measurement of the lifetime of the metastable 3s3p(3)P(0)1 level of Si(2+) (Si III), which decays by photon emission at 189.2 nm to the 3s2(1)S0 state, is reported. The data were taken from spontaneous emission from metastable Si III stored in an RF ion trap. The Si III ions were produced through electron bombardment of SiH4 and SiF4 at pressures of 1/100,000,000-1/10,000,000 Torr. A photomultiplier was employed to count the photon emissions from the transitions. A total of 11 decay curves were generated for analysis, with Poisson statistics used to set the uncertainties at within 8 pct. Significant systematic effects were controlled, and the lifetime was found to be within 3.6 microsec of 59.9 microsec. The method used is concluded valid for determining the lifetimes of metastable levels of low-Z ions with low charge, and thereby the transition probabilities.

  3. Critically Evaluated Energy Levels, Spectral Lines, Transition Probabilities, and Intensities of Singly Ionized Vanadium (V II)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saloman, Edward B.; Kramida, Alexander

    2017-08-01

    The energy levels, observed spectral lines, and transition probabilities of singly ionized vanadium, V II, have been compiled. The experimentally derived energy levels belong to the configurations 3d 4, 3d 3 ns (n = 4, 5, 6), 3d 3 np, and 3d 3 nd (n = 4, 5), 3d 34f, 3d 24s 2, and 3d 24s4p. Also included are values for some forbidden lines that may be of interest to the astrophysical community. Experimental Landé g-factors and leading percentages for the levels are included when available, as well as Ritz wavelengths calculated from the energy levels. Wavelengths and transition probabilities are reported for 3568 and 1896 transitions, respectively. From the list of observed wavelengths, 407 energy levels are determined. The observed intensities, normalized to a common scale, are provided. From the newly optimized energy levels, a revised value for the ionization energy is derived, 118,030(60) cm-1, corresponding to 14.634(7) eV. This is 130 cm-1 higher than the previously recommended value from Iglesias et al.

  4. Accurate high-throughput structure mapping and prediction with transition metal ion FRET

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Xiaozhen; Wu, Xiongwu; Bermejo, Guillermo A.; Brooks, Bernard R.; Taraska, Justin W.

    2013-01-01

    Mapping the landscape of a protein’s conformational space is essential to understanding its functions and regulation. The limitations of many structural methods have made this process challenging for most proteins. Here, we report that transition metal ion FRET (tmFRET) can be used in a rapid, highly parallel screen, to determine distances from multiple locations within a protein at extremely low concentrations. The distances generated through this screen for the protein Maltose Binding Protein (MBP) match distances from the crystal structure to within a few angstroms. Furthermore, energy transfer accurately detects structural changes during ligand binding. Finally, fluorescence-derived distances can be used to guide molecular simulations to find low energy states. Our results open the door to rapid, accurate mapping and prediction of protein structures at low concentrations, in large complex systems, and in living cells. PMID:23273426

  5. How Accurate Are Transition States from Simulations of Enzymatic Reactions?

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The rate expression of traditional transition state theory (TST) assumes no recrossing of the transition state (TS) and thermal quasi-equilibrium between the ground state and the TS. Currently, it is not well understood to what extent these assumptions influence the nature of the activated complex obtained in traditional TST-based simulations of processes in the condensed phase in general and in enzymes in particular. Here we scrutinize these assumptions by characterizing the TSs for hydride transfer catalyzed by the enzyme Escherichia coli dihydrofolate reductase obtained using various simulation approaches. Specifically, we compare the TSs obtained with common TST-based methods and a dynamics-based method. Using a recently developed accurate hybrid quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics potential, we find that the TST-based and dynamics-based methods give considerably different TS ensembles. This discrepancy, which could be due equilibrium solvation effects and the nature of the reaction coordinate employed and its motion, raises major questions about how to interpret the TSs determined by common simulation methods. We conclude that further investigation is needed to characterize the impact of various TST assumptions on the TS phase-space ensemble and on the reaction kinetics. PMID:24860275

  6. Current recommendations on the estimation of transition probabilities in Markov cohort models for use in health care decision-making: a targeted literature review.

    PubMed

    Olariu, Elena; Cadwell, Kevin K; Hancock, Elizabeth; Trueman, David; Chevrou-Severac, Helene

    2017-01-01

    Although Markov cohort models represent one of the most common forms of decision-analytic models used in health care decision-making, correct implementation of such models requires reliable estimation of transition probabilities. This study sought to identify consensus statements or guidelines that detail how such transition probability matrices should be estimated. A literature review was performed to identify relevant publications in the following databases: Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and PubMed. Electronic searches were supplemented by manual-searches of health technology assessment (HTA) websites in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the UK. One reviewer assessed studies for eligibility. Of the 1,931 citations identified in the electronic searches, no studies met the inclusion criteria for full-text review, and no guidelines on transition probabilities in Markov models were identified. Manual-searching of the websites of HTA agencies identified ten guidelines on economic evaluations (Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and UK). All identified guidelines provided general guidance on how to develop economic models, but none provided guidance on the calculation of transition probabilities. One relevant publication was identified following review of the reference lists of HTA agency guidelines: the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research taskforce guidance. This provided limited guidance on the use of rates and probabilities. There is limited formal guidance available on the estimation of transition probabilities for use in decision-analytic models. Given the increasing importance of cost-effectiveness analysis in the decision-making processes of HTA bodies and other medical decision-makers, there is a need for additional guidance to inform a more consistent approach to decision-analytic modeling. Further research should be done to

  7. Critically Evaluated Energy Levels, Spectral Lines, Transition Probabilities, and Intensities of Neutral Vanadium (V i)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Saloman, Edward B.; Kramida, Alexander

    2017-08-01

    The energy levels, observed spectral lines, and transition probabilities of the neutral vanadium atom, V i, have been compiled. Also included are values for some forbidden lines that may be of interest to the astrophysical community. Experimental Landé g -factors and leading percentage compositions for the levels are included where available, as well as wavelengths calculated from the energy levels (Ritz wavelengths). Wavelengths are reported for 3985 transitions, and 549 energy levels are determined. The observed relative intensities normalized to a common scale are provided.

  8. On the use of the energy probability distribution zeros in the study of phase transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mól, L. A. S.; Rodrigues, R. G. M.; Stancioli, R. A.; Rocha, J. C. S.; Costa, B. V.

    2018-04-01

    This contribution is devoted to cover some technical aspects related to the use of the recently proposed energy probability distribution zeros in the study of phase transitions. This method is based on the partial knowledge of the partition function zeros and has been shown to be extremely efficient to precisely locate phase transition temperatures. It is based on an iterative method in such a way that the transition temperature can be approached at will. The iterative method will be detailed and some convergence issues that has been observed in its application to the 2D Ising model and to an artificial spin ice model will be shown, together with ways to circumvent them.

  9. Genetic evaluation of mastitis liability and recovery through longitudinal analysis of transition probabilities

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Many methods for the genetic analysis of mastitis use a cross-sectional approach, which omits information on, e.g., repeated mastitis cases during lactation, somatic cell count fluctuations, and recovery process. Acknowledging the dynamic behavior of mastitis during lactation and taking into account that there is more than one binary response variable to consider, can enhance the genetic evaluation of mastitis. Methods Genetic evaluation of mastitis was carried out by modeling the dynamic nature of somatic cell count (SCC) within the lactation. The SCC patterns were captured by modeling transition probabilities between assumed states of mastitis and non-mastitis. A widely dispersed SCC pattern generates high transition probabilities between states and vice versa. This method can model transitions to and from states of infection simultaneously, i.e. both the mastitis liability and the recovery process are considered. A multilevel discrete time survival model was applied to estimate breeding values on simulated data with different dataset sizes, mastitis frequencies, and genetic correlations. Results Correlations between estimated and simulated breeding values showed that the estimated accuracies for mastitis liability were similar to those from previously tested methods that used data of confirmed mastitis cases, while our results were based on SCC as an indicator of mastitis. In addition, unlike the other methods, our method also generates breeding values for the recovery process. Conclusions The developed method provides an effective tool for the genetic evaluation of mastitis when considering the whole disease course and will contribute to improving the genetic evaluation of udder health. PMID:22475575

  10. Transitions in Prognostic Awareness Among Terminally Ill Cancer Patients in Their Last 6 Months of Life Examined by Multi-State Markov Modeling.

    PubMed

    Hsiu Chen, Chen; Wen, Fur-Hsing; Hou, Ming-Mo; Hsieh, Chia-Hsun; Chou, Wen-Chi; Chen, Jen-Shi; Chang, Wen-Cheng; Tang, Siew Tzuh

    2017-09-01

    Developing accurate prognostic awareness, a cornerstone of preference-based end-of-life (EOL) care decision-making, is a dynamic process involving more prognostic-awareness states than knowing or not knowing. Understanding the transition probabilities and time spent in each prognostic-awareness state can help clinicians identify trigger points for facilitating transitions toward accurate prognostic awareness. We examined transition probabilities in distinct prognostic-awareness states between consecutive time points in 247 cancer patients' last 6 months and estimated the time spent in each state. Prognostic awareness was categorized into four states: (a) unknown and not wanting to know, state 1; (b) unknown but wanting to know, state 2; (c) inaccurate awareness, state 3; and (d) accurate awareness, state 4. Transitional probabilities were examined by multistate Markov modeling. Initially, 59.5% of patients had accurate prognostic awareness, whereas the probabilities of being in states 1-3 were 8.1%, 17.4%, and 15.0%, respectively. Patients' prognostic awareness generally remained unchanged (probabilities of remaining in the same state: 45.5%-92.9%). If prognostic awareness changed, it tended to shift toward higher prognostic-awareness states (probabilities of shifting to state 4 were 23.2%-36.6% for patients initially in states 1-3, followed by probabilities of shifting to state 3 for those in states 1 and 2 [9.8%-10.1%]). Patients were estimated to spend 1.29, 0.42, 0.68, and 3.61 months in states 1-4, respectively, in their last 6 months. Terminally ill cancer patients' prognostic awareness generally remained unchanged, with a tendency to become more aware of their prognosis. Health care professionals should facilitate patients' transitions toward accurate prognostic awareness in a timely manner to promote preference-based EOL decisions. Terminally ill Taiwanese cancer patients' prognostic awareness generally remained stable, with a tendency toward developing

  11. Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

    PubMed

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

    2014-02-01

    Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model

  12. Arbitrarily accurate twin composite π -pulse sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torosov, Boyan T.; Vitanov, Nikolay V.

    2018-04-01

    We present three classes of symmetric broadband composite pulse sequences. The composite phases are given by analytic formulas (rational fractions of π ) valid for any number of constituent pulses. The transition probability is expressed by simple analytic formulas and the order of pulse area error compensation grows linearly with the number of pulses. Therefore, any desired compensation order can be produced by an appropriate composite sequence; in this sense, they are arbitrarily accurate. These composite pulses perform equally well as or better than previously published ones. Moreover, the current sequences are more flexible as they allow total pulse areas of arbitrary integer multiples of π .

  13. New Critical Compilations of Atomic Transition Probabilities for Neutral and Singly Ionized Carbon, Nitrogen, and Iron

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiese, Wolfgang L.; Fuhr, J. R.

    2006-01-01

    We have undertaken new critical assessments and tabulations of the transition probabilities of important lines of these spectra. For Fe I and Fe II, we have carried out a complete re-assessment and update, and we have relied almost exclusively on the literature of the last 15 years. Our updates for C I, C II and N I, N II primarily address the persistent lower transitions as well as a greatly expanded number of forbidden lines (M1, M2, and E2). For these transitions, sophisticated multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock (MCHF) calculations have been recently carried out, which have yielded data considerably improved and often appreciably different from our 1996 NIST compilation.

  14. Critically Evaluated Energy Levels, Spectral Lines, Transition Probabilities, and Intensities of Singly Ionized Vanadium (V ii)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Saloman, Edward B.; Kramida, Alexander

    2017-08-01

    The energy levels, observed spectral lines, and transition probabilities of singly ionized vanadium, V ii, have been compiled. The experimentally derived energy levels belong to the configurations 3 d {sup 4}, 3 d {sup 3} ns ( n  = 4, 5, 6), 3 d {sup 3} np , and 3 d {sup 3} nd ( n  = 4, 5), 3 d {sup 3}4 f , 3 d {sup 2}4 s {sup 2}, and 3 d {sup 2}4 s 4 p . Also included are values for some forbidden lines that may be of interest to the astrophysical community. Experimental Landé g -factorsmore » and leading percentages for the levels are included when available, as well as Ritz wavelengths calculated from the energy levels. Wavelengths and transition probabilities are reported for 3568 and 1896 transitions, respectively. From the list of observed wavelengths, 407 energy levels are determined. The observed intensities, normalized to a common scale, are provided. From the newly optimized energy levels, a revised value for the ionization energy is derived, 118,030(60) cm{sup −1}, corresponding to 14.634(7) eV. This is 130 cm{sup −1} higher than the previously recommended value from Iglesias et al.« less

  15. Measuring change in health status of older adults at the population level: the transition probability model.

    PubMed

    Moineddin, Rahim; Nie, Jason X; Wang, Li; Tracy, C Shawn; Upshur, Ross E G

    2010-11-09

    The current demographic transition will lead to increasing demands on health services. However, debate exists as to the role age plays relative to co-morbidity in terms of health services utilization. While age has been identified as a critical factor in health services utilization, health services utilization is not simply an outcome of ill health, nor is it an inevitable outcome of aging. Most data on health service utilization studies assess utilization at one point in time, and does not examine transitions in health service utilization. We sought to measure health services utilization and to investigate patterns in the transition of levels of utilization and outcomes associated with different levels of utilization. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of all Ontario residents aged 65+ eligible for public healthcare coverage from January 1998-December 2006. The main outcome measure was total number of utilization events. The total is computed by summing, on a per annum basis, the number of family physician visits, specialist visits, Emergency Department visits, drug claims, lab claims, X-rays, CT scans, MRI scans, and inpatient admissions. Three categories of utilization were created: low, moderate, and high. There is heterogeneity in health services utilization across the late lifespan. Utilization increased consistently in the 9-year study period. The probability of remaining at the high utilization category when the person was in the high category the previous year was more than 0.70 for both males and females and for all age groups. Overall healthcare utilization increases more rapidly among the high users compared to the low users. There was negligible probability for moving from high to low utilization category. Probability of death increased exponentially as age increased. Older adults in the low utilization category had the lowest probability of death. The number of male nonagenarians increased more rapidly than female nonagenarians

  16. Accurate wavelengths for X-ray spectroscopy and the NIST hydrogen-like ion database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotochigova, S. A.; Kirby, K. P.; Brickhouse, N. S.; Mohr, P. J.; Tupitsyn, I. I.

    2005-06-01

    We have developed an ab initio multi-configuration Dirac-Fock-Sturm method for the precise calculation of X-ray emission spectra, including energies, transition wavelengths and transition probabilities. The calculations are based on non-orthogonal basis sets, generated by solving the Dirac-Fock and Dirac-Fock-Sturm equations. Inclusion of Sturm functions into the basis set provides an efficient description of correlation effects in highly charged ions and fast convergence of the configuration interaction procedure. A second part of our study is devoted to developing a theoretical procedure and creating an interactive database to generate energies and transition frequencies for hydrogen-like ions. This procedure is highly accurate and based on current knowledge of the relevant theory, which includes relativistic, quantum electrodynamic, recoil, and nuclear size effects.

  17. A Computational Model of Word Segmentation from Continuous Speech Using Transitional Probabilities of Atomic Acoustic Events

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rasanen, Okko

    2011-01-01

    Word segmentation from continuous speech is a difficult task that is faced by human infants when they start to learn their native language. Several studies indicate that infants might use several different cues to solve this problem, including intonation, linguistic stress, and transitional probabilities between subsequent speech sounds. In this…

  18. Higher order Stark effect and transition probabilities on hyperfine structure components of hydrogen like atoms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pal'Chikov, V. G.

    2000-08-01

    A quantum-electrodynamical (QED) perturbation theory is developed for hydrogen and hydrogen-like atomic systems with interaction between bound electrons and radiative field being treated as the perturbation. The dependence of the perturbed energy of levels on hyperfine structure (hfs) effects and on the higher-order Stark effect is investigated. Numerical results have been obtained for the transition probability between the hfs components of hydrogen-like bismuth.

  19. Fine-structure calculations of energy levels, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for sulfur-like iron, Fe XI

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abou El-Maaref, A., E-mail: aahmh@hotmail.com; Ahmad, Mahmoud; Allam, S.H.

    Energy levels, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for transitions among the 14 LS states belonging to configurations of sulfur-like iron, Fe XI, have been calculated. These states are represented by configuration interaction wavefunctions and have configurations 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 4}, 3s3p{sup 5}, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}3d, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4s, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4p, and 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4d, which give rise to 123 fine-structure energy levels. Extensive configuration interaction calculations using the CIV3 code have been performed. To assess the importance of relativistic effects, the intermediate coupling scheme by means of the Breit–Pauli Hamiltonian terms, such as the one-body mass correction and Darwin term,more » and spin–orbit, spin–other-orbit, and spin–spin corrections, are incorporated within the code. These incorporations adjusted the energy levels, therefore the calculated values are close to the available experimental data. Comparisons between the present calculated energy levels as well as oscillator strengths and both experimental and theoretical data have been performed. Our results show good agreement with earlier works, and they might be useful in thermonuclear fusion research and astrophysical applications. -- Highlights: •Accurate atomic data of iron ions are needed for identification of solar corona. •Extensive configuration interaction wavefunctions including 123 fine-structure levels have been calculated. •The relativistic effects by means of the Breit–Pauli Hamiltonian terms are incorporated. •This incorporation adjusts the energy levels, therefore the calculated values are close to experimental values.« less

  20. Transit probabilities for debris around white dwarfs in Kepler/K2 up to C13

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, John Arban; Johnson, John Asher

    2018-01-01

    WD 1145+017 (Vanderburg et al. 2015), a metal-polluted white dwarf with an infrared-excess and transits confirmed the long held theory that at least some metal-polluted white dwarfs are actively accreting material from crushed up planetesimals. A statistical understanding of WD 1145-like systems would inform us on the various pathways for metal-pollution and the end states of planetary systems around medium- to high-mass stars. At present, there is a single example. We study all white dwarfs observed during the K2 mission to identify white dwarfs with either transits or light curve features similar to WD 1145+017. We correct for contamination using J.J. Hermes' list of high probability white dwarfs (available at k2wd.org ).

  1. A Procedure for Deriving Formulas to Convert Transition Rates to Probabilities for Multistate Markov Models.

    PubMed

    Jones, Edmund; Epstein, David; García-Mochón, Leticia

    2017-10-01

    For health-economic analyses that use multistate Markov models, it is often necessary to convert from transition rates to transition probabilities, and for probabilistic sensitivity analysis and other purposes it is useful to have explicit algebraic formulas for these conversions, to avoid having to resort to numerical methods. However, if there are four or more states then the formulas can be extremely complicated. These calculations can be made using packages such as R, but many analysts and other stakeholders still prefer to use spreadsheets for these decision models. We describe a procedure for deriving formulas that use intermediate variables so that each individual formula is reasonably simple. Once the formulas have been derived, the calculations can be performed in Excel or similar software. The procedure is illustrated by several examples and we discuss how to use a computer algebra system to assist with it. The procedure works in a wide variety of scenarios but cannot be employed when there are several backward transitions and the characteristic equation has no algebraic solution, or when the eigenvalues of the transition rate matrix are very close to each other.

  2. Energy levels, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for sulfur-like scandium, Sc VI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Maaref, A. A.; Abou Halaka, M. M.; Saddeek, Yasser B.

    2017-09-01

    Energy levels, Oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for sulfur-like scandium are calculated using CIV3 code. The calculations have been executed in an intermediate coupling scheme using Breit-Pauli Hamiltonian. The present calculations have been compared with the experimental data and other theoretical calculations. LANL code has been used to confirm the accuracy of the present calculations, where the calculations using CIV3 code agree well with the corresponding values by LANL code. The calculated energy levels and oscillator strengths are in reasonable agreement with the published experimental data and theoretical values. We have calculated lifetimes of some excited levels, as well.

  3. The Estimation of Tree Posterior Probabilities Using Conditional Clade Probability Distributions

    PubMed Central

    Larget, Bret

    2013-01-01

    In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample. [Bayesian phylogenetics; conditional clade distributions; improved accuracy; posterior probabilities of trees.] PMID:23479066

  4. The re-incarnation, re-interpretation and re-demise of the transition probability model.

    PubMed

    Koch, A L

    1999-05-28

    There are two classes of models for the cell cycle that have both a deterministic and a stochastic part; they are the transition probability (TP) models and sloppy size control (SSC) models. The hallmark of the basic TP model are two graphs: the alpha and beta plots. The former is the semi-logarithmic plot of the percentage of cell divisions yet to occur, this results in a horizontal line segment at 100% corresponding to the deterministic phase and a straight line sloping tail corresponding to the stochastic part. The beta plot concerns the differences of the age-at-division of sisters (the beta curve) and gives a straight line parallel to the tail of the alpha curve. For the SC models the deterministic part is the time needed for the cell to accumulate a critical amount of some substance(s). The variable part differs in the various variants of the general model, but they do not give alpha and beta curves with linear tails as postulated by the TP model. This paper argues against TP and for an elaboration of SSC type of model. The main argument against TP is that it assumes that the probability of the transition from the stochastic phase is time invariant even though it is certain that the cells are growing and metabolizing throughout the cell cycle; a fact that should make the transition probability be variable. The SSC models presume that cell division is triggered by the cell's success in growing and not simply the result of elapsed time. The extended model proposed here to accommodate the predictions of the SSC to the straight tailed parts of the alpha and beta plots depends on the existence of a few percent of the cell in a growing culture that are not growing normally, these are growing much slower or are temporarily quiescent. The bulk of the cells, however, grow nearly exponentially. Evidence for a slow growing component comes from experimental analyses of population size distributions for a variety of cell types by the Collins-Richmond technique. These

  5. The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

    PubMed

    Larget, Bret

    2013-07-01

    In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

  6. Transition probabilities for non self-adjoint Hamiltonians in infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bagarello, F., E-mail: fabio.bagarello@unipa.it

    In a recent paper we have introduced several possible inequivalent descriptions of the dynamics and of the transition probabilities of a quantum system when its Hamiltonian is not self-adjoint. Our analysis was carried out in finite dimensional Hilbert spaces. This is useful, but quite restrictive since many physically relevant quantum systems live in infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces. In this paper we consider this situation, and we discuss some applications to well known models, introduced in the literature in recent years: the extended harmonic oscillator, the Swanson model and a generalized version of the Landau levels Hamiltonian. Not surprisingly we willmore » find new interesting features not previously found in finite dimensional Hilbert spaces, useful for a deeper comprehension of this kind of physical systems.« less

  7. Avoided crossings: A study of the nonadiabatic transition probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desouter-Lecomte, M.; Leyh-Nihant, B.; Praet, M. T.; Lorquet, J. C.

    1987-06-01

    An approximate solution to the problem of constructing a pair of diabatic states exists only if certain requirements are fulfilled, for example, when the nonadiabatic coupling results from an interaction between two electronic configurations which are doubly excited with respect to one another. It is then possible to build up a model in which the series expansion of the elements of the Hamiltonian matrix is truncated after the first nonzero term. This leads to several conclusions concerning the nonadiabatic transition probability which differentiate conical intersections from avoided crossings. For the latter, the nonadiabatic coupling matrix elements (which are Lorentzians with an area equal to π/2) reach their maximum at the nuclear geometry for which ΔE (the energy gap between adiabatic surfaces) is a minimum. The loci along which the angle θ of the orthogonal transformation which relates adiabatic and diabatic wave functions keeps a constant value are a set of parallel straight lines which coincides with the loci along which ΔE remains constant. This reference direction in the configuration space corresponds to nuclear trajectories which are unable to bring about a nonadiabatic transition. In the case of avoided crossings, there exists only one nuclear degree of freedom which gives rise to surface hopping. Conical intersections, on the other hand, have two such active degrees of freedom. This creates a qualitative difference between the two cases which makes conical intersections more efficient as funnels than avoided crossings. A two-dimensional extension of the Landau-Zener formula is derived for avoided crossings. It contains a factor of anisotropy. It is possible, at least in favorable cases, to extract approximate diabatic quantities from ab initio calculations and to compare them with the predictions of these models. This has been done for two 2A1 electronic states of the CH+2 ion. The results are found to agree with the predictions of the model, at

  8. MRCI study on the spectroscopic parameters, transition dipole moments and transition probabilities of 16 low-lying states of the BeB radical

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Dan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2018-03-01

    In this work, we calculate the potential energy curves of 16 Λ-S and 36 Ω states of beryllium boride (BeB) radical using the complete active space self-consistent field method, followed by the valence internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with Davidson correction. The 16 Λ-S states are the X2Π, A2Σ+, B2Π, C2Δ, D2Ʃ-, E2Σ+, G2Π, I2Σ+, a4Σ-, b4Π, c4Σ-, d4Δ, e4Σ+, g4Π, h4Π, and 24Σ+, which are obtained from the first three dissociation channels of the BeB radical. The Ω states are obtained from the Λ-S states. Of the Λ-S states, the G2Π, I2Σ+, and h4Π states exhibit double well curves. The G2Π, b4Π, and g4Π states are inverted with the spin-orbit coupling effect included. The d4Δ, e4Σ+, and g4Π states as well as the second well of the h4Π state are very weakly bound. Avoided crossings exist between the G2Π and H2Π states, the A2Σ+ and E2Σ+ states, the c4Σ- and f4Σ- states, the g4Π and h4Π states, the I2Σ+ and 42Σ+ states, as well as the 24Σ+ and 34Σ+ states. To improve the quality of the potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as the extrapolation of the potential energies to the complete basis set limit, are included. The transition dipole moments are computed. Spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are determined along with Franck-Condon factors, Einstein coefficients, and radiative lifetimes of many electronic transitions. The transition probabilities are evaluated. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels is discussed. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered very reliable and can be employed to predict these states in an appropriate spectroscopy experiment.

  9. The Probability of Muon Sticking and X-Ray Yields in the Muon Catalyzed Fusion Cycle in a Deuterium and Tritium Mixture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pahlavani, M. R.; Motevalli, S. M.

    2008-03-01

    The muon catalyzed fusion cycle in mixtures of deuterium and tritium is of particular interest due to the observation of high fusion yields. In the D-T mixture, the most serious limitation to the efficiency of the fusion chain is the probability of muon sticking to the alpha -particle produced in the nuclear reaction. An accurate kinetic treatment has been applied to the muonic helium atoms formed by a muon sticking to the alpha -particles. In this work accurate rates for collisions of alpha mu + ions with hydrogen atoms have been used for calculation of muon stripping probability and the intensities of X-ray transitions by solving a set of coupled differential equations numerically. Our calculated results are in good agreement with experimental data available in literature.

  10. VizieR Online Data Catalog: Transition probabilities in TeII + TeIII spectra (Zhang+, 2013)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, W.; Palmeri, P.; Quinet, P.; Biemont, E.

    2013-02-01

    Computed weighted oscillator strengths (loggf) and transition probabilities (gA) for Te II (Table 8) and Te III (Table 9). Transitions with wavelengths <1um, loggf>-1 and CF>0.05 are only quoted. Air wavelengths are given above 200 nm. In Table 8 the levels are taken from Kamida et al (Kamida, A., Ralchenko, Yu., Reader, J., and NIST ASD Team (2012). NIST Atomic Spectra Database (ver. 5.0), [Online]. Available: http://physics.nist.gov/asd [2012, September 20]. National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD.). In Table 9 the levels are those given in Tauheed & Naz (Tauheed, A., Naz, A. 2011, Journal of the Korean Physical Society 59, 2910) with the exceptions of the 5p6p levels which were taken from Kramida et al. The wavelengths were computed from the experimental levels of Kramida et al and Tauheed & Naz. (2 data files).

  11. Relations between the single-pass and double-pass transition probabilities in quantum systems with two and three states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vitanov, Nikolay V.

    2018-05-01

    In the experimental determination of the population transfer efficiency between discrete states of a coherently driven quantum system it is often inconvenient to measure the population of the target state. Instead, after the interaction that transfers the population from the initial state to the target state, a second interaction is applied which brings the system back to the initial state, the population of which is easy to measure and normalize. If the transition probability is p in the forward process, then classical intuition suggests that the probability to return to the initial state after the backward process should be p2. However, this classical expectation is generally misleading because it neglects interference effects. This paper presents a rigorous theoretical analysis based on the SU(2) and SU(3) symmetries of the propagators describing the evolution of quantum systems with two and three states, resulting in explicit analytic formulas that link the two-step probabilities to the single-step ones. Explicit examples are given with the popular techniques of rapid adiabatic passage and stimulated Raman adiabatic passage. The present results suggest that quantum-mechanical probabilities degrade faster in repeated processes than classical probabilities. Therefore, the actual single-pass efficiencies in various experiments, calculated from double-pass probabilities, might have been greater than the reported values.

  12. Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Parke, Stephen J.; Denton, Peter B.; Minakata, Hisakazu

    2018-01-02

    We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.

  13. Peculiarities of high-overtone transition probabilities in carbon monoxide revealed by high-precision calculation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Medvedev, Emile S., E-mail: esmedved@orc.ru; Meshkov, Vladimir V.; Stolyarov, Andrey V.

    In the recent work devoted to the calculation of the rovibrational line list of the CO molecule [G. Li et al., Astrophys. J., Suppl. Ser. 216, 15 (2015)], rigorous validation of the calculated parameters including intensities was carried out. In particular, the Normal Intensity Distribution Law (NIDL) [E. S. Medvedev, J. Chem. Phys. 137, 174307 (2012)] was employed for the validation purposes, and it was found that, in the original CO line list calculated for large changes of the vibrational quantum number up to Δn = 41, intensities with Δn > 11 were unphysical. Therefore, very high overtone transitions weremore » removed from the published list in Li et al. Here, we show how this type of validation is carried out and prove that the quadruple precision is indispensably required to predict the reliable intensities using the conventional 32-bit computers. Based on these calculations, the NIDL is shown to hold up for the 0 → n transitions till the dissociation limit around n = 83, covering 45 orders of magnitude in the intensity. The low-intensity 0 → n transition predicted in the work of Medvedev [Determination of a new molecular constant for diatomic systems. Normal intensity distribution law for overtone spectra of diatomic and polyatomic molecules and anomalies in overtone absorption spectra of diatomic molecules, Institute of Chemical Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Chernogolovka, 1984] at n = 5 is confirmed, and two additional “abnormal” intensities are found at n = 14 and 23. Criteria for the appearance of such “anomalies” are formulated. The results could be useful to revise the high-overtone molecular transition probabilities provided in spectroscopic databases.« less

  14. Formula for the Transition Probability Induced by Long-range Potential Terms Varying as R-8 and R-10 for Atom-dimer Collisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthews, N. F.; Robson, D.; Grant, M. A.

    1990-12-01

    An explicit formula is derived for the transition probability between two different states of the atom-dimer collisional system governed by second-order long-range interaction potential terms varying as R-8 and R-10.

  15. Hyperfine induced transition probabilities from 4{f}^{14}5s5p{}^{3}{{\\rm{P}}}_{0,2}^{o} states in Sm-like ions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Fuyang; Li, Jiguang; Qu, Yizhi; Wang, Jianguo

    2017-11-01

    The hyperfine induced 4{f}145s5p{}3{{{P}}}0,2o-4{f}145{s}2{}1{{{S}}}0 transition probabilities for highly charged Sm-like ions are calculated within the framework of the multiconfiguration Dirac-Hartree-Fock method. Electron correlation, the Breit interaction and quantum electrodynamical effects are taken into account. For ions ranging from Z = 79 to Z=94,4{f}145s5p{}3{{{P}}}0o is the first excited state, and the hyperfine induced transition (HIT) is a dominant decay channel. For the 4{f}145s5p{}3{{{P}}}2o state, the HIT rates of Sm-like ions with Z=82-94 are reported as well as the magnetic dipole (M1) {}3{{{P}}}2o-{}3{{{P}}}1o, the electric quadrupole (E2) {}3{{{P}}}2o-{}3{{{P}}}0,1o, and the magnetic quadrupole (M2) {}3{{{P}}}2o-{}1{{{S}}}0 transition probabilities. It is found that M1 transition from the 4{f}145s5p{}3{{{P}}}2o state is the most important decay channel in this range on Z≥slant 82.

  16. More accurate depiction of adsorption energy on transition metals using work function as one additional descriptor.

    PubMed

    Shen, Xiaochen; Pan, Yanbo; Liu, Bin; Yang, Jinlong; Zeng, Jie; Peng, Zhenmeng

    2017-05-24

    The reaction mechanism and properties of a catalytic process are primarily determined by the interactions between reacting species and catalysts. However, the interactions are often challenging to be experimentally measured, especially for unstable intermediates. Therefore, it is of significant importance to establish an exact relationship between chemical-catalyst interactions and catalyst parameters, which will allow calculation of these interactions and thus advance their mechanistic understanding. Herein we report the description of adsorption energy on transition metals by considering both ionic bonding and covalent bonding contributions and introduce the work function as one additional responsible parameter. We find that the adsorption energy can be more accurately described using a two-dimensional (2D) polynomial model, which shows a significant improvement compared with the current adsorption energy-d-band center linear correlation. We also demonstrate the utilization of this new 2D polynomial model to calculate oxygen binding energy of different transition metals to help understand their catalytic properties in oxygen reduction reactions.

  17. Exact transition probabilities for a linear sweep through a Kramers-Kronig resonance

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sun, Chen; Sinitsyn, Nikolai A.

    2015-11-19

    We consider a localized electronic spin controlled by a circularly polarized optical beam and an external magnetic field. When the frequency of the beam is tuned near an optical resonance with a continuum of higher energy states, effective magnetic fields are induced on the two-level system via the inverse Faraday effect. We explore the process in which the frequency of the beam is made linearly time-dependent so that it sweeps through the optical resonance, starting and ending at the values far away from it. In addition to changes of spin states, Kramers-Kronig relations guarantee that a localized electron can alsomore » escape into a continuum of states. We argue that probabilities of transitions between different possible electronic states after such a sweep of the optical frequency can be found exactly, regardless the shape of the resonance. In conclusion, we also discuss extension of our results to multistate systems.« less

  18. Wavelengths, Transition Probabilities, and Energy Levels for the Spectra of Strontium Ions (Sr II through Sr XXXVIII)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sansonetti, J. E.

    2012-03-01

    Energy levels, with designations and uncertainties, have been compiled for the spectra of strontium (Z=38) ions from singly ionized to hydrogen-like. Wavelengths with classifications, intensities, and transition probabilities are also tabulated. In addition, ground states and ionization energies are listed. For many ionization stages experimental data are available; however for those for which only theoretical calculations or fitted values exist, these are reported. There are a few ionization stages for which only a calculated ionization potential is available.

  19. Measurement of the transition probability of the C III 190.9 nanometer intersystem line

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kwong, Victor H. S.; Fang, Z.; Gibbons, T. T.; Parkinson, W. H.; Smith, Peter L.

    1993-01-01

    A radio-frequency ion trap has been used to store C(2+) ions created by electron bombardment of CO. The transition probability for the 2s2p 3Po1-2s2 1S0 intersystem line of C m has been measured by recording the radiative decay at 190.9 nm. The measured A-value is 121 +/- 7/s and agrees, within mutual uncertainty limits, with that of Laughlin et al. (1978), but is 20 percent larger than that of Nussbaumer and Storey (1978). The effective collision mixing rate coefficient among the fine structure levels of 3Po and the combined quenching and charge transfer rate coefficients out of the 3Po1 level with the CO source gas have also been measured.

  20. Phase transitions in community detection: A solvable toy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ver Steeg, Greg; Moore, Cristopher; Galstyan, Aram; Allahverdyan, Armen

    2014-05-01

    Recently, it was shown that there is a phase transition in the community detection problem. This transition was first computed using the cavity method, and has been proved rigorously in the case of q = 2 groups. However, analytic calculations using the cavity method are challenging since they require us to understand probability distributions of messages. We study analogous transitions in the so-called “zero-temperature inference” model, where this distribution is supported only on the most likely messages. Furthermore, whenever several messages are equally likely, we break the tie by choosing among them with equal probability, corresponding to an infinitesimal random external field. While the resulting analysis overestimates the thresholds, it reproduces some of the qualitative features of the system. It predicts a first-order detectability transition whenever q > 2 (as opposed to q > 4 according to the finite-temperature cavity method). It also has a regime analogous to the “hard but detectable” phase, where the community structure can be recovered, but only when the initial messages are sufficiently accurate. Finally, we study a semisupervised setting where we are given the correct labels for a fraction ρ of the nodes. For q > 2, we find a regime where the accuracy jumps discontinuously at a critical value of ρ.

  1. Accurate Laboratory Measurements of Vibration-Rotation Transitions of 36ArH^+ and 38ArH+

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cueto, Maite; Cernicharo, Jose; Herrero, Victor Jose; Tanarro, Isabel; Domenech, Jose Luis

    2014-06-01

    The protonated Ar ion 36ArH^+ has recently been identified in space, in the Crab Nebula, from Herschel spectra. Its R(0) and R(1) transitions lie at 617.5 and 1234.6 GHz, respectively, where atmospheric transmission is rather poor, even for a site as good as that of ALMA. As an alternative, especially after the end of the Herschel mission, rovibrational transitions of ArH^+ could be observed in absorption against bright background sources such as the galactic center, or other objects. We report on accurate laboratory wavenumber measurements of 19 lines of the v=1-0 band of 36ArH^+ and 38ArH^+, using a hollow cathode discharge cell, a difference frequency laser spectrometer and Ar with natural isotopic composition. Of those lines, only eight had been reported before and with much less accuracy. The data have also been used in a Dunham-type global fit of all published laboratory data (IR and sub-mm) of all isotopologues. Barlow et al., Science, 342, 1343 (2013) R.R. Filgueira and C.E. Blom, J. Mol. Spectrosc., 127, 279 (1988) M. Cueto et al, Astrophys. J. Lett, 783, L5 (2014)

  2. Fixation Probability in a Haploid-Diploid Population.

    PubMed

    Bessho, Kazuhiro; Otto, Sarah P

    2017-01-01

    Classical population genetic theory generally assumes either a fully haploid or fully diploid life cycle. However, many organisms exhibit more complex life cycles, with both free-living haploid and diploid stages. Here we ask what the probability of fixation is for selected alleles in organisms with haploid-diploid life cycles. We develop a genetic model that considers the population dynamics using both the Moran model and Wright-Fisher model. Applying a branching process approximation, we obtain an accurate fixation probability assuming that the population is large and the net effect of the mutation is beneficial. We also find the diffusion approximation for the fixation probability, which is accurate even in small populations and for deleterious alleles, as long as selection is weak. These fixation probabilities from branching process and diffusion approximations are similar when selection is weak for beneficial mutations that are not fully recessive. In many cases, particularly when one phase predominates, the fixation probability differs substantially for haploid-diploid organisms compared to either fully haploid or diploid species. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

  3. Fixation Probability in a Haploid-Diploid Population

    PubMed Central

    Bessho, Kazuhiro; Otto, Sarah P.

    2017-01-01

    Classical population genetic theory generally assumes either a fully haploid or fully diploid life cycle. However, many organisms exhibit more complex life cycles, with both free-living haploid and diploid stages. Here we ask what the probability of fixation is for selected alleles in organisms with haploid-diploid life cycles. We develop a genetic model that considers the population dynamics using both the Moran model and Wright–Fisher model. Applying a branching process approximation, we obtain an accurate fixation probability assuming that the population is large and the net effect of the mutation is beneficial. We also find the diffusion approximation for the fixation probability, which is accurate even in small populations and for deleterious alleles, as long as selection is weak. These fixation probabilities from branching process and diffusion approximations are similar when selection is weak for beneficial mutations that are not fully recessive. In many cases, particularly when one phase predominates, the fixation probability differs substantially for haploid-diploid organisms compared to either fully haploid or diploid species. PMID:27866168

  4. Simple, accurate formula for the average bit error probability of multiple-input multiple-output free-space optical links over negative exponential turbulence channels.

    PubMed

    Peppas, Kostas P; Lazarakis, Fotis; Alexandridis, Antonis; Dangakis, Kostas

    2012-08-01

    In this Letter we investigate the error performance of multiple-input multiple-output free-space optical communication systems employing intensity modulation/direct detection and operating over strong atmospheric turbulence channels. Atmospheric-induced strong turbulence fading is modeled using the negative exponential distribution. For the considered system, an approximate yet accurate analytical expression for the average bit error probability is derived and an efficient method for its numerical evaluation is proposed. Numerically evaluated and computer simulation results are further provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed mathematical analysis.

  5. Association of multiple ischemic strokes with mortality in incident hemodialysis patients: an application of multistate model to determine transition probabilities in a retrospective observational cohort.

    PubMed

    Wetmore, James B; Mahnken, Jonathan D; Phadnis, Milind A

    2016-09-21

    Little is known about the effect of multiple, or subsequent, ischemic strokes in patients receiving hemodialysis. We undertook a retrospective cohort study of incident hemodialysis patients with Medicare coverage who had experienced a first ischemic stroke. Factors associated with either a subsequent ischemic stroke or death following a first new stroke were modeled. A multistate model with Cox proportional hazards was used to predict transition probabilities from first ischemic stroke to either subsequent stroke or to death, and the demographic and clinical factors associated with the respective transition probabilities were determined. Effect of a subsequent ischemic stroke on survival was quantified. Overall, 12,054 individuals (mean age 69.7 years, 41.3 % male, 53.0 % Caucasian and 34.0 % African-American) experienced a first new ischemic stroke. Female sex was associated with an increased risk of having a subsequent ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio 1.37, 95 % confidence intervals 1.20 - 1.56, P < 0.0001); African-Americans, as compared to Caucasians, had lower likelihood of dying after a first new ischemic stroke (0.81, 0.77 - 0.85, P < 0.0001). A subsequent stroke trended towards having a higher likelihood of transitioning to death compared to a first new ischemic stroke on dialysis (1.72, 0.96 - 3.09, P = 0.071). When a subsequent ischemic stroke occurs at 24 months, probability of survival dropped >15 %, in absolute terms, from 0.254 to 0.096, with substantial drops observed at subsequent time points such that the probability of survival was more than halved. Likelihood of subsequent ischemic stroke and of survival in hemodialysis patients appears to vary by sex and race: females are more likely than males to experience a subsequent ischemic stroke, and Caucasians are more likely than African-Americans to die after a first new ischemic stroke. The risk of a transitioning to a subsequent stroke (after having had a first) increases

  6. X-ray natural widths, level widths and Coster-Kronig transition probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papp, T.; Campbell, J. L.; Varga, D.

    1997-01-01

    A critical review is given for the K-N7 atomic level widths. The experimental level widths were collected from x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), x-ray emission spectroscopy (XES), x-ray spectra fluoresced by synchrotron radiation, and photoelectrons from x-ray absorption (PAX). There are only limited atomic number ranges for a few atomic levels where data are available from more than one source. Generally the experimental level widths have large scatter compared to the reported error bars. The experimental data are compared with the recent tabulation of Perkins et al. and of Ohno et al. Ohno et al. performed a many body approach calculation for limited atomic number ranges and have obtained reasonable agreement with the experimental data. Perkins et al. presented a tabulation covering the K-Q1 shells of all atoms, based on extensions of the Scofield calculations for radiative rates and extensions of the Chen calculations for non-radiative rates. The experimental data are in disagreement with this tabulation, in excess of a factor of two in some cases. A short introduction to the experimental Coster-Kronig transition probabilities is presented. It is our opinion that the different experimental approaches result in systematically different experimental data.

  7. Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohmer, J.; Loschetter, A.

    2016-04-01

    Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value to a state of high probability value. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to > 70% could be identified up to 1-3 h in advance. This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

  8. Transition path theory analysis of c-Src kinase activation

    PubMed Central

    Meng, Yilin; Shukla, Diwakar; Pande, Vijay S.; Roux, Benoît

    2016-01-01

    Nonreceptor tyrosine kinases of the Src family are large multidomain allosteric proteins that are crucial to cellular signaling pathways. In a previous study, we generated a Markov state model (MSM) to simulate the activation of c-Src catalytic domain, used as a prototypical tyrosine kinase. The long-time kinetics of transition predicted by the MSM was in agreement with experimental observations. In the present study, we apply the framework of transition path theory (TPT) to the previously constructed MSM to characterize the main features of the activation pathway. The analysis indicates that the activating transition, in which the activation loop first opens up followed by an inward rotation of the αC-helix, takes place via a dense set of intermediate microstates distributed within a fairly broad “transition tube” in a multidimensional conformational subspace connecting the two end-point conformations. Multiple microstates with negligible equilibrium probabilities carry a large transition flux associated with the activating transition, which explains why extensive conformational sampling is necessary to accurately determine the kinetics of activation. Our results suggest that the combination of MSM with TPT provides an effective framework to represent conformational transitions in complex biomolecular systems. PMID:27482115

  9. Probability distributions for multimeric systems.

    PubMed

    Albert, Jaroslav; Rooman, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    We propose a fast and accurate method of obtaining the equilibrium mono-modal joint probability distributions for multimeric systems. The method necessitates only two assumptions: the copy number of all species of molecule may be treated as continuous; and, the probability density functions (pdf) are well-approximated by multivariate skew normal distributions (MSND). Starting from the master equation, we convert the problem into a set of equations for the statistical moments which are then expressed in terms of the parameters intrinsic to the MSND. Using an optimization package on Mathematica, we minimize a Euclidian distance function comprising of a sum of the squared difference between the left and the right hand sides of these equations. Comparison of results obtained via our method with those rendered by the Gillespie algorithm demonstrates our method to be highly accurate as well as efficient.

  10. Quantum mechanical reaction probability of triplet ketene at the multireference second-order perturbation level of theory.

    PubMed

    Ogihara, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Takeshi; Kato, Shigeki

    2010-09-23

    Triplet ketene exhibits a steplike structure in the experimentally observed dissociation rates, but its mechanism is still unknown despite many theoretical efforts in the past decades. In this paper we revisit this problem by quantum mechanically calculating the reaction probability with multireference-based electronic structure theory. Specifically, we first construct an analytical potential energy surface of triplet state by fitting it to about 6000 ab initio energies computed at the multireference second-order Mller-Plesset perturbation (MRMP2) level. We then evaluate the cumulative reaction probability by using the transition state wave packet method together with an adiabatically constrained Hamiltonian. The result shows that the imaginary barrier frequency on the triplet surface is 328i cm-1, which is close to the CCSD(T) result (321i cm-1) but is likely too large for reproducing the experimentally observed steps. Indeed, our calculated reaction probability exhibits no signature of steps, reflecting too strong tunneling effect along the reaction coordinate. Nevertheless, it is emphasized that the flatness of the potential profile in the transition-state region (which governs the degree of tunneling) depends strongly on the level of electronic structure calculation, thus leaving some possibility that the use of more accurate theories might lead to the observed steps. We also demonstrate that the triplet potential surface differs significantly between the CASSCF and MRMP2 results, particularly in the transition-state region. This fact seems to require more attention when studying the "nonadiabatic" scenario for the steps, in which the crossing seam between S0 and T1 surfaces is assumed to play a central role.

  11. Energy levels, wavelengths, and radiative transition probabilities for the Na-like ions with 38 [le] Z [le] 45

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ying Zhang; Qiren Zhu; Shoufu Pan

    1992-11-01

    The investigation by Z.-Q Zhang et al. (Acta Optica Sinica 11, 193, 1991) shows that it is possible to realize soft X-ray lasing in the water window 23.3-43.8 [Angstrom] with the Na-like recombination scheme, which requires a lower pumping power at a high-power laser facility than that with other schemes. The fine-structure levels with n [le] 15 and l [le] 6 in Na-like ions with 38 [le] Z [le] 45 and the probabilities for radiative transitions between these levels are calculated using the multiconfiguration Dirac-Fock approach. The calculations show that the wavelengths of the anticipated laser transitions 6 f-4d andmore » 6g-4f in the Na-like ions with 38 [le] Z [le] 43 and 5f-4d and 5g-4f in the Na-like ions with 40 [le] Z [le] 45 lie in the region of the water window.« less

  12. Time varying moments, regime switch, and crisis warning: The birth-death process with changing transition probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Yinan; Chen, Ping

    2014-06-01

    The sub-prime crisis in the U.S. reveals the limitation of diversification strategy based on mean-variance analysis. A regime switch and a turning point can be observed using a high moment representation and time-dependent transition probability. Up-down price movements are induced by interactions among agents, which can be described by the birth-death (BD) process. Financial instability is visible by dramatically increasing 3rd to 5th moments one-quarter before and during the crisis. The sudden rising high moments provide effective warning signals of a regime-switch or a coming crisis. The critical condition of a market breakdown can be identified from nonlinear stochastic dynamics. The master equation approach of population dynamics provides a unified theory of a calm and turbulent market.

  13. An Alignment-Free Algorithm in Comparing the Similarity of Protein Sequences Based on Pseudo-Markov Transition Probabilities among Amino Acids

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yushuang; Yang, Jiasheng; Zhang, Yi

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we have proposed a novel alignment-free method for comparing the similarity of protein sequences. We first encode a protein sequence into a 440 dimensional feature vector consisting of a 400 dimensional Pseudo-Markov transition probability vector among the 20 amino acids, a 20 dimensional content ratio vector, and a 20 dimensional position ratio vector of the amino acids in the sequence. By evaluating the Euclidean distances among the representing vectors, we compare the similarity of protein sequences. We then apply this method into the ND5 dataset consisting of the ND5 protein sequences of 9 species, and the F10 and G11 datasets representing two of the xylanases containing glycoside hydrolase families, i.e., families 10 and 11. As a result, our method achieves a correlation coefficient of 0.962 with the canonical protein sequence aligner ClustalW in the ND5 dataset, much higher than those of other 5 popular alignment-free methods. In addition, we successfully separate the xylanases sequences in the F10 family and the G11 family and illustrate that the F10 family is more heat stable than the G11 family, consistent with a few previous studies. Moreover, we prove mathematically an identity equation involving the Pseudo-Markov transition probability vector and the amino acids content ratio vector. PMID:27918587

  14. Effects of Word Frequency and Transitional Probability on Word Reading Durations of Younger and Older Speakers.

    PubMed

    Moers, Cornelia; Meyer, Antje; Janse, Esther

    2017-06-01

    High-frequency units are usually processed faster than low-frequency units in language comprehension and language production. Frequency effects have been shown for words as well as word combinations. Word co-occurrence effects can be operationalized in terms of transitional probability (TP). TPs reflect how probable a word is, conditioned by its right or left neighbouring word. This corpus study investigates whether three different age groups-younger children (8-12 years), adolescents (12-18 years) and older (62-95 years) Dutch speakers-show frequency and TP context effects on spoken word durations in reading aloud, and whether age groups differ in the size of these effects. Results show consistent effects of TP on word durations for all age groups. Thus, TP seems to influence the processing of words in context, beyond the well-established effect of word frequency, across the entire age range. However, the study also indicates that age groups differ in the size of TP effects, with older adults having smaller TP effects than adolescent readers. Our results show that probabilistic reduction effects in reading aloud may at least partly stem from contextual facilitation that leads to faster reading times in skilled readers, as well as in young language learners.

  15. Base pair probability estimates improve the prediction accuracy of RNA non-canonical base pairs

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Prediction of RNA tertiary structure from sequence is an important problem, but generating accurate structure models for even short sequences remains difficult. Predictions of RNA tertiary structure tend to be least accurate in loop regions, where non-canonical pairs are important for determining the details of structure. Non-canonical pairs can be predicted using a knowledge-based model of structure that scores nucleotide cyclic motifs, or NCMs. In this work, a partition function algorithm is introduced that allows the estimation of base pairing probabilities for both canonical and non-canonical interactions. Pairs that are predicted to be probable are more likely to be found in the true structure than pairs of lower probability. Pair probability estimates can be further improved by predicting the structure conserved across multiple homologous sequences using the TurboFold algorithm. These pairing probabilities, used in concert with prior knowledge of the canonical secondary structure, allow accurate inference of non-canonical pairs, an important step towards accurate prediction of the full tertiary structure. Software to predict non-canonical base pairs and pairing probabilities is now provided as part of the RNAstructure software package. PMID:29107980

  16. Transitional probabilities count more than frequency, but might not be used for memorization.

    PubMed

    Endress, Ansgar D; Langus, Alan

    2017-02-01

    Learners often need to extract recurring items from continuous sequences, in both vision and audition. The best-known example is probably found in word-learning, where listeners have to determine where words start and end in fluent speech. This could be achieved through universal and experience-independent statistical mechanisms, for example by relying on Transitional Probabilities (TPs). Further, these mechanisms might allow learners to store items in memory. However, previous investigations have yielded conflicting evidence as to whether a sensitivity to TPs is diagnostic of the memorization of recurring items. Here, we address this issue in the visual modality. Participants were familiarized with a continuous sequence of visual items (i.e., arbitrary or everyday symbols), and then had to choose between (i) high-TP items that appeared in the sequence, (ii) high-TP items that did not appear in the sequence, and (iii) low-TP items that appeared in the sequence. Items matched in TPs but differing in (chunk) frequency were much harder to discriminate than items differing in TPs (with no significant sensitivity to chunk frequency), and learners preferred unattested high-TP items over attested low-TP items. Contrary to previous claims, these results cannot be explained on the basis of the similarity of the test items. Learners thus weigh within-item TPs higher than the frequency of the chunks, even when the TP differences are relatively subtle. We argue that these results are problematic for distributional clustering mechanisms that analyze continuous sequences, and provide supporting computational results. We suggest that the role of TPs might not be to memorize items per se, but rather to prepare learners to memorize recurring items once they are presented in subsequent learning situations with richer cues. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict stroke outcome more accurately than physicians.

    PubMed

    Ntaios, G; Gioulekas, F; Papavasileiou, V; Strbian, D; Michel, P

    2016-11-01

    ASTRAL, SEDAN and DRAGON scores are three well-validated scores for stroke outcome prediction. Whether these scores predict stroke outcome more accurately compared with physicians interested in stroke was investigated. Physicians interested in stroke were invited to an online anonymous survey to provide outcome estimates in randomly allocated structured scenarios of recent real-life stroke patients. Their estimates were compared to scores' predictions in the same scenarios. An estimate was considered accurate if it was within 95% confidence intervals of actual outcome. In all, 244 participants from 32 different countries responded assessing 720 real scenarios and 2636 outcomes. The majority of physicians' estimates were inaccurate (1422/2636, 53.9%). 400 (56.8%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of 3-month modified Rankin score (mRS) > 2 were accurate compared with 609 (86.5%) of ASTRAL score estimates (P < 0.0001). 394 (61.2%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of post-thrombolysis symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage were accurate compared with 583 (90.5%) of SEDAN score estimates (P < 0.0001). 160 (24.8%) of physicians' estimates about post-thrombolysis 3-month percentage probability of mRS 0-2 were accurate compared with 240 (37.3%) DRAGON score estimates (P < 0.0001). 260 (40.4%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of post-thrombolysis mRS 5-6 were accurate compared with 518 (80.4%) DRAGON score estimates (P < 0.0001). ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict outcome of acute ischaemic stroke patients with higher accuracy compared to physicians interested in stroke. © 2016 EAN.

  18. An exacting transition probability measurement - a direct test of atomic many-body theories.

    PubMed

    Dutta, Tarun; De Munshi, Debashis; Yum, Dahyun; Rebhi, Riadh; Mukherjee, Manas

    2016-07-19

    A new protocol for measuring the branching fraction of hydrogenic atoms with only statistically limited uncertainty is proposed and demonstrated for the decay of the P3/2 level of the barium ion, with precision below 0.5%. Heavy hydrogenic atoms like the barium ion are test beds for fundamental physics such as atomic parity violation and they also hold the key to understanding nucleo-synthesis in stars. To draw definitive conclusion about possible physics beyond the standard model by measuring atomic parity violation in the barium ion it is necessary to measure the dipole transition probabilities of low-lying excited states with a precision better than 1%. Furthermore, enhancing our understanding of the barium puzzle in barium stars requires branching fraction data for proper modelling of nucleo-synthesis. Our measurements are the first to provide a direct test of quantum many-body calculations on the barium ion with a precision below one percent and more importantly with no known systematic uncertainties. The unique measurement protocol proposed here can be easily extended to any decay with more than two channels and hence paves the way for measuring the branching fractions of other hydrogenic atoms with no significant systematic uncertainties.

  19. Analytical method for the accurate determination of tricothecenes in grains using LC-MS/MS: a comparison between MRM transition and MS3 quantitation.

    PubMed

    Lim, Chee Wei; Tai, Siew Hoon; Lee, Lin Min; Chan, Sheot Harn

    2012-07-01

    The current food crisis demands unambiguous determination of mycotoxin contamination in staple foods to achieve safer food for consumption. This paper describes the first accurate LC-MS/MS method developed to analyze tricothecenes in grains by applying multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) transition and MS(3) quantitation strategies in tandem. The tricothecenes are nivalenol, deoxynivalenol, deoxynivalenol-3-glucoside, fusarenon X, 3-acetyl-deoxynivalenol, 15-acetyldeoxynivalenol, diacetoxyscirpenol, and HT-2 and T-2 toxins. Acetic acid and ammonium acetate were used to convert the analytes into their respective acetate adducts and ammonium adducts under negative and positive MS polarity conditions, respectively. The mycotoxins were separated by reversed-phase LC in a 13.5-min run, ionized using electrospray ionization, and detected by tandem mass spectrometry. Analyte-specific mass-to-charge (m/z) ratios were used to perform quantitation under MRM transition and MS(3) (linear ion trap) modes. Three experiments were made for each quantitation mode and matrix in batches over 6 days for recovery studies. The matrix effect was investigated at concentration levels of 20, 40, 80, 120, 160, and 200 μg kg(-1) (n = 3) in 5 g corn flour and rice flour. Extraction with acetonitrile provided a good overall recovery range of 90-108% (n = 3) at three levels of spiking concentration of 40, 80, and 120 μg kg(-1). A quantitation limit of 2-6 μg kg(-1) was achieved by applying an MRM transition quantitation strategy. Under MS(3) mode, a quantitation limit of 4-10 μg kg(-1) was achieved. Relative standard deviations of 2-10% and 2-11% were reported for MRM transition and MS(3) quantitation, respectively. The successful utilization of MS(3) enabled accurate analyte fragmentation pattern matching and its quantitation, leading to the development of analytical methods in fields that demand both analyte specificity and fragmentation fingerprint-matching capabilities that are

  20. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  1. Effect of H2 binding on the nonadiabatic transition probability between singlet and triplet states of the [NiFe]-hydrogenase active site.

    PubMed

    Kaliakin, Danil S; Zaari, Ryan R; Varganov, Sergey A

    2015-02-12

    We investigate the effect of H2 binding on the spin-forbidden nonadiabatic transition probability between the lowest energy singlet and triplet electronic states of [NiFe]-hydrogenase active site model, using a velocity averaged Landau-Zener theory. Density functional and multireference perturbation theories were used to provide parameters for the Landau-Zener calculations. It was found that variation of the torsion angle between the terminal thiolate ligands around the Ni center induces an intersystem crossing between the lowest energy singlet and triplet electronic states in the bare active site and in the active site with bound H2. Potential energy curves between the singlet and triplet minima along the torsion angle and H2 binding energies to the two spin states were calculated. Upon H2 binding to the active site, there is a decrease in the torsion angle at the minimum energy crossing point between the singlet and triplet states. The probability of nonadiabatic transitions at temperatures between 270 and 370 K ranges from 35% to 32% for the active site with bound H2 and from 42% to 38% for the bare active site, thus indicating the importance of spin-forbidden nonadiabatic pathways for H2 binding on the [NiFe]-hydrogenase active site.

  2. Accurate Cross Sections for Excitation of Resonance Transitions in Atomic Oxygen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tayal, S. S.

    2004-01-01

    Electron collision excitation cross sections for the resonance 2p(sup)4 (sup 3)P-2p(sup 3)3s (sup 3)S(sup 0), 2p(sup 4) (sup 3)P-2p(sup 3)3d (sup 3)D(sup 0), 2p4 (sup 3)P-2p(sup 3)3s (sup 3)D(sup 0), 2p(sup 4) (sup 3)P-2p(sup 3)3s (sup 3)P(sup 0) and 2p(sup 4) (sup 3)P-2s2p(sup 5) (sup 3)P(sup 0) transitions have been calculated by using the R matrix with a pseudostates approach for incident electron energies from near threshold to 100 eV. The excitation of these transition sgives rise to strong atomic oxygen emission features at 1304, 1027, 989, 878, and 792 Angstrom in the spectra of several planetary atmospheres. We included 22 spectroscopic bound and autoionizing states and 30 pseudostates in the close-coupling expansion. The target wave functions are chosen to properly account for the important correlation and relaxation effects. The effect of coupling to the continuum is included through the use of pseudostates. The contribution of the ionization continuum is significant for resonance transitions. Measured absolute direct excitation cross sections of 0 I are reported by experimental groups from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Johns Hopkins University. Good agreement is noted for the 2p(sup)4 (sup 3)P-2p(sup 3)3s (sup 3)S(sup 0) transition (lambda 1304 Ang) with measured cross sections from both groups that agree well with each other. There is disagreement between experiments for other transitions. Our results support the measured cross sections from the Johns Hopkins University for the 2p(sup 4) (sup 3)P-2p(sup 3)3d (sup 3)D(sup 0) and 2p4 (sup 3)P-2p(sup 3)3s (sup 3)D(sup 0) transitions, while for the 2p4 (sup 3)P-2p(sup 3)3s (sup 3)D(sup 0) transition the agreement is switched to the measured cross sections from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

  3. Radiative lifetimes and transition probabilities for electric-dipole delta n equals zero transitions in highly stripped sulfur ions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pegg, D. J.; Elston, S. B.; Griffin, P. M.; Forester, J. P.; Thoe, R. S.; Peterson, R. S.; Sellin, I. A.; Hayden, H. C.

    1976-01-01

    The beam-foil time-of-flight method has been used to investigate radiative lifetimes and transition rates involving allowed intrashell transitions within the L shell of highly ionized sulfur. The results for these transitions, which can be particularly correlation-sensitive, are compared with current calculations based upon multiconfigurational models.

  4. E2 transition probabilities for decays of isomers observed in neutron-rich odd Sn isotopes

    DOE PAGES

    Iskra, Ł. W.; Broda, R.; Janssens, R. V.F.; ...

    2015-01-01

    High-spin states were investigated with gamma coincidence techniques in neutron-rich Sn isotopes produced in fission processes following ⁴⁸Ca + ²⁰⁸Pb, ⁴⁸Ca + ²³⁸U, and ⁶⁴Ni + ²³⁸U reactions. By exploiting delayed and cross-coincidence techniques, level schemes have been delineated in odd ¹¹⁹⁻¹²⁵Sn isotopes. Particular attention was paid to the occurrence of 19/2⁺ and 23/2⁺ isomeric states for which the available information has now been significantly extended. Reduced transition probabilities, B(E2), extracted from the measured half-lives and the established details of the isomeric decays exhibit a striking regularity. This behavior was compared with the previously observed regularity of the B(E2) amplitudesmore » for the seniority ν = 2 and 3, 10⁺ and 27/2⁻ isomers in even- and odd-Sn isotopes, respectively.« less

  5. Measurements of spectral parameters of water-vapour transitions near 1388 and 1345 nm for accurate simulation of high-pressure absorption spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xiang; Jeffries, Jay B.; Hanson, Ronald K.

    2007-05-01

    Quantitative near-infrared absorption spectroscopy of water-vapour overtone and combination bands at high pressures is complicated by pressure broadening and shifting of individual lines and the blending of neighbouring transitions. An experimental and computational methodology is developed to determine accurate high-pressure absorption spectra. This case study investigates two water-vapour transitions, one near 1388 nm (7203.9 cm-1) and the other near 1345 nm (7435.6 cm-1), for potential two-line absorption measurements of temperature in the range of 400-1050 K with a pressure varying from 5-25 atm. The required quantitative spectroscopy data (line strength, collisional broadening, and pressure-induced frequency shift) of the target transitions and their neighbours (a total of four H2O vapour transitions near 1388 nm and six transitions near 1345 nm) are measured in neat H2O vapour, H2O-air and H2O-CO2 mixtures as a function of temperature (296-1000 K) at low pressures (<800 Torr). Precise values of the line strength S(T), pressure-broadening coefficients γair(T) and \\gamma _{CO_2 } (T), and pressure-shift coefficients δair(T) and \\delta _{CO_2 } (T) for the ten transitions were inferred from the measured spectra and compared with data from HITRAN 2004. A hybrid spectroscopic database was constructed by modifying HITRAN 2004 to incorporate these values for simulation of water-vapour-absorption spectra at high pressures. Simulations using this hybrid database are in good agreement with high pressure experiments and demonstrate that data collected at modest pressures can be used to simulate high-pressure absorption spectra.

  6. Accurate spin-orbit and spin-other-orbit contributions to the g-tensor for transition metal containing systems.

    PubMed

    Van Yperen-De Deyne, A; Pauwels, E; Van Speybroeck, V; Waroquier, M

    2012-08-14

    In this paper an overview is presented of several approximations within Density Functional Theory (DFT) to calculate g-tensors in transition metal containing systems and a new accurate description of the spin-other-orbit contribution for high spin systems is suggested. Various implementations in a broad variety of software packages (ORCA, ADF, Gaussian, CP2K, GIPAW and BAND) are critically assessed on various aspects including (i) non-relativistic versus relativistic Hamiltonians, (ii) spin-orbit coupling contributions and (iii) the gauge. Particular attention is given to the level of accuracy that can be achieved for codes that allow g-tensor calculations under periodic boundary conditions, as these are ideally suited to efficiently describe extended condensed-phase systems containing transition metals. In periodic codes like CP2K and GIPAW, the g-tensor calculation schemes currently suffer from an incorrect treatment of the exchange spin-orbit interaction and a deficient description of the spin-other-orbit term. In this paper a protocol is proposed, making the predictions of the exchange part to the g-tensor shift more plausible. Focus is also put on the influence of the spin-other-orbit interaction which becomes of higher importance for high-spin systems. In a revisited derivation of the various terms arising from the two-electron spin-orbit and spin-other-orbit interaction (SOO), new insight has been obtained revealing amongst other issues new terms for the SOO contribution. The periodic CP2K code has been adapted in view of this new development. One of the objectives of this study is indeed a serious enhancement of the performance of periodic codes in predicting g-tensors in transition metal containing systems at the same level of accuracy as the most advanced but time consuming spin-orbit mean-field approach. The methods are first applied on rhodium carbide but afterwards extended to a broad test set of molecules containing transition metals from the fourth

  7. Dynamic phase transitions of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model under an oscillating external magnetic field by the path probability method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ertaş, Mehmet; Keskin, Mustafa

    2015-03-01

    By using the path probability method (PPM) with point distribution, we study the dynamic phase transitions (DPTs) in the Blume-Emery-Griffiths (BEG) model under an oscillating external magnetic field. The phases in the model are obtained by solving the dynamic equations for the average order parameters and a disordered phase, ordered phase and four mixed phases are found. We also investigate the thermal behavior of the dynamic order parameters to analyze the nature dynamic transitions as well as to obtain the DPT temperatures. The dynamic phase diagrams are presented in three different planes in which exhibit the dynamic tricritical point, double critical end point, critical end point, quadrupole point, triple point as well as the reentrant behavior, strongly depending on the values of the system parameters. We compare and discuss the dynamic phase diagrams with dynamic phase diagrams that were obtained within the Glauber-type stochastic dynamics based on the mean-field theory.

  8. Approaching system equilibrium with accurate or not accurate feedback information in a two-route system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Xiao-mei; Xie, Dong-fan; Li, Qi

    2015-02-01

    With the development of intelligent transport system, advanced information feedback strategies have been developed to reduce traffic congestion and enhance the capacity. However, previous strategies provide accurate information to travelers and our simulation results show that accurate information brings negative effects, especially in delay case. Because travelers prefer to the best condition route with accurate information, and delayed information cannot reflect current traffic condition but past. Then travelers make wrong routing decisions, causing the decrease of the capacity and the increase of oscillations and the system deviating from the equilibrium. To avoid the negative effect, bounded rationality is taken into account by introducing a boundedly rational threshold BR. When difference between two routes is less than the BR, routes have equal probability to be chosen. The bounded rationality is helpful to improve the efficiency in terms of capacity, oscillation and the gap deviating from the system equilibrium.

  9. A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany☆

    PubMed Central

    Kattenbach, Ralph; Schneidhofer, Thomas M.; Lücke, Janine; Latzke, Markus; Loacker, Bernadette; Schramm, Florian; Mayrhofer, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time. PMID:24493876

  10. A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany.

    PubMed

    Kattenbach, Ralph; Schneidhofer, Thomas M; Lücke, Janine; Latzke, Markus; Loacker, Bernadette; Schramm, Florian; Mayrhofer, Wolfgang

    2014-02-01

    By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time.

  11. Accurate electronic and chemical properties of 3d transition metal oxides using a calculated linear response U and a DFT + U(V) method.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhongnan; Joshi, Yogesh V; Raman, Sumathy; Kitchin, John R

    2015-04-14

    We validate the usage of the calculated, linear response Hubbard U for evaluating accurate electronic and chemical properties of bulk 3d transition metal oxides. We find calculated values of U lead to improved band gaps. For the evaluation of accurate reaction energies, we first identify and eliminate contributions to the reaction energies of bulk systems due only to changes in U and construct a thermodynamic cycle that references the total energies of unique U systems to a common point using a DFT + U(V) method, which we recast from a recently introduced DFT + U(R) method for molecular systems. We then introduce a semi-empirical method based on weighted DFT/DFT + U cohesive energies to calculate bulk oxidation energies of transition metal oxides using density functional theory and linear response calculated U values. We validate this method by calculating 14 reactions energies involving V, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Co oxides. We find up to an 85% reduction of the mean average error (MAE) compared to energies calculated with the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof functional. When our method is compared with DFT + U with empirically derived U values and the HSE06 hybrid functional, we find up to 65% and 39% reductions in the MAE, respectively.

  12. KINETIC ENERGY DISTRIBUTION OF H(1s) FROM H{sub 2} X {sup 1}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g} EXCITATION AND LIFETIMES AND TRANSITION PROBABILITIES OF a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Liu Xianming; Johnson, Paul V.; Malone, Charles P.

    Dissociative excitation of molecular hydrogen plays an important role in the heating of outer planet upper thermospheres. This paper addresses the role of one of the triplet states involved in the process. H{sub 2} excited to the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g} state, or higher triplet-ungerade states, is dissociated via the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-b {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub u} continuum. The kinetic energy distribution of H(1s) produced from direct X {sup 1}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J) excitation by electrons is investigated by an accurate theoretical evaluation of spontaneous transition probabilities ofmore » the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J)-b {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub u} continuum transition. It is shown that the X {sup 1}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(0)-a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J) excitation primarily produces H(1s) atoms with kinetic energies lower than 2 eV. In addition to the continuum a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J)-b {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub u} transition probabilities, spontaneous emission lifetimes of the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J) (v = 0-20, J {<=} 14) levels have been calculated by considering both the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-b {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub u} and a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-c {sup 3}{Pi} {sub u} transitions. The calculated lifetimes show a moderately strong rotational dependence, and the lifetimes for the J = 0 rotational level of the low v levels agree well with previous calculations and experimental measurements. Calculations of the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-b {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub u} continuum emission spectra from electron impact X {sup 1}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g} excitation are included.« less

  13. Evaluation of aquifer heterogeneity effects on river flow loss using a transition probability framework

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Engdahl, N.B.; Vogler, E.T.; Weissmann, G.S.

    2010-01-01

    River-aquifer exchange is considered within a transition probability framework along the Rio Grande in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to provide a stochastic estimate of aquifer heterogeneity and river loss. Six plausible hydrofacies configurations were determined using categorized drill core and wetland survey data processed through the TPROGS geostatistical package. A base case homogeneous model was also constructed for comparison. River loss was simulated for low, moderate, and high Rio Grande stages and several different riverside drain stage configurations. Heterogeneity effects were quantified by determining the mean and variance of the K field for each realization compared to the root-mean-square (RMS) error of the observed groundwater head data. Simulation results showed that the heterogeneous models produced smaller estimates of loss than the homogeneous approximation. Differences between heterogeneous and homogeneous model results indicate that the use of a homogeneous K in a regional-scale model may result in an overestimation of loss but comparable RMS error. We find that the simulated river loss is dependent on the aquifer structure and is most sensitive to the volumetric proportion of fines within the river channel. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Saturated fluorescence method for determination of atomic transition probabilities: Application to the Ar i 430.0-nm (1s4-3p8) transition and the lifetime determination of the upper level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirabayashi, A.; Okuda, S.; Nambu, Y.; Fujimoto, T.

    1987-01-01

    We have developed a new method for determination of atomic transition probabilities based on laser-induced-fluorescence spectroscopy (LIFS). In the method one produces a known population of atoms in the upper level under investigation and relates it to an observed absolute line intensity. We have applied this method to the argon 430.0-nm line (1s4-3p8): In an argon discharge plasma the 1s5-level population and spatial distribution are determined by the self-absorption method combined with LIFS under conditions where the 3p8-level population is much lower than that of the 1s5 level. When intense laser light of 419.1 nm (1s5-3p8) irradiates the plasma and saturates the 3p8-level population, the produced 3p8-level population and its alignment can be determined from the 1s5-level parameters as determined above, by solving the master equation on the basis of broad-line excitation. By comparing the observed absolute fluorescence intensity of the 430.0-nm line with the above population, we have determined the transition probability to be A=(3.94+/-0.60)×105 s-1. We also determined the 3p8-level lifetime by LIFS. Several factors which might affect the measurement are discussed. The result is τ=127+/-10 ns.

  15. Dynamic Encoding of Speech Sequence Probability in Human Temporal Cortex

    PubMed Central

    Leonard, Matthew K.; Bouchard, Kristofer E.; Tang, Claire

    2015-01-01

    Sensory processing involves identification of stimulus features, but also integration with the surrounding sensory and cognitive context. Previous work in animals and humans has shown fine-scale sensitivity to context in the form of learned knowledge about the statistics of the sensory environment, including relative probabilities of discrete units in a stream of sequential auditory input. These statistics are a defining characteristic of one of the most important sequential signals humans encounter: speech. For speech, extensive exposure to a language tunes listeners to the statistics of sound sequences. To address how speech sequence statistics are neurally encoded, we used high-resolution direct cortical recordings from human lateral superior temporal cortex as subjects listened to words and nonwords with varying transition probabilities between sound segments. In addition to their sensitivity to acoustic features (including contextual features, such as coarticulation), we found that neural responses dynamically encoded the language-level probability of both preceding and upcoming speech sounds. Transition probability first negatively modulated neural responses, followed by positive modulation of neural responses, consistent with coordinated predictive and retrospective recognition processes, respectively. Furthermore, transition probability encoding was different for real English words compared with nonwords, providing evidence for online interactions with high-order linguistic knowledge. These results demonstrate that sensory processing of deeply learned stimuli involves integrating physical stimulus features with their contextual sequential structure. Despite not being consciously aware of phoneme sequence statistics, listeners use this information to process spoken input and to link low-level acoustic representations with linguistic information about word identity and meaning. PMID:25948269

  16. Beta-decay rate and beta-delayed neutron emission probability of improved gross theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koura, Hiroyuki

    2014-09-01

    A theoretical study has been carried out on beta-decay rate and beta-delayed neutron emission probability. The gross theory of the beta decay is based on an idea of the sum rule of the beta-decay strength function, and has succeeded in describing beta-decay half-lives of nuclei overall nuclear mass region. The gross theory includes not only the allowed transition as the Fermi and the Gamow-Teller, but also the first-forbidden transition. In this work, some improvements are introduced as the nuclear shell correction on nuclear level densities and the nuclear deformation for nuclear strength functions, those effects were not included in the original gross theory. The shell energy and the nuclear deformation for unmeasured nuclei are adopted from the KTUY nuclear mass formula, which is based on the spherical-basis method. Considering the properties of the integrated Fermi function, we can roughly categorized energy region of excited-state of a daughter nucleus into three regions: a highly-excited energy region, which fully affect a delayed neutron probability, a middle energy region, which is estimated to contribute the decay heat, and a region neighboring the ground-state, which determines the beta-decay rate. Some results will be given in the presentation. A theoretical study has been carried out on beta-decay rate and beta-delayed neutron emission probability. The gross theory of the beta decay is based on an idea of the sum rule of the beta-decay strength function, and has succeeded in describing beta-decay half-lives of nuclei overall nuclear mass region. The gross theory includes not only the allowed transition as the Fermi and the Gamow-Teller, but also the first-forbidden transition. In this work, some improvements are introduced as the nuclear shell correction on nuclear level densities and the nuclear deformation for nuclear strength functions, those effects were not included in the original gross theory. The shell energy and the nuclear deformation for

  17. Estimating the Probability of Negative Events

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Adam J. L.; Corner, Adam; Hahn, Ulrike

    2009-01-01

    How well we are attuned to the statistics of our environment is a fundamental question in understanding human behaviour. It seems particularly important to be able to provide accurate assessments of the probability with which negative events occur so as to guide rational choice of preventative actions. One question that arises here is whether or…

  18. Consistency of VDJ Rearrangement and Substitution Parameters Enables Accurate B Cell Receptor Sequence Annotation.

    PubMed

    Ralph, Duncan K; Matsen, Frederick A

    2016-01-01

    VDJ rearrangement and somatic hypermutation work together to produce antibody-coding B cell receptor (BCR) sequences for a remarkable diversity of antigens. It is now possible to sequence these BCRs in high throughput; analysis of these sequences is bringing new insight into how antibodies develop, in particular for broadly-neutralizing antibodies against HIV and influenza. A fundamental step in such sequence analysis is to annotate each base as coming from a specific one of the V, D, or J genes, or from an N-addition (a.k.a. non-templated insertion). Previous work has used simple parametric distributions to model transitions from state to state in a hidden Markov model (HMM) of VDJ recombination, and assumed that mutations occur via the same process across sites. However, codon frame and other effects have been observed to violate these parametric assumptions for such coding sequences, suggesting that a non-parametric approach to modeling the recombination process could be useful. In our paper, we find that indeed large modern data sets suggest a model using parameter-rich per-allele categorical distributions for HMM transition probabilities and per-allele-per-position mutation probabilities, and that using such a model for inference leads to significantly improved results. We present an accurate and efficient BCR sequence annotation software package using a novel HMM "factorization" strategy. This package, called partis (https://github.com/psathyrella/partis/), is built on a new general-purpose HMM compiler that can perform efficient inference given a simple text description of an HMM.

  19. The Neuronal Transition Probability (NTP) Model for the Dynamic Progression of Non-REM Sleep EEG: The Role of the Suprachiasmatic Nucleus

    PubMed Central

    Merica, Helli; Fortune, Ronald D.

    2011-01-01

    Little attention has gone into linking to its neuronal substrates the dynamic structure of non-rapid-eye-movement (NREM) sleep, defined as the pattern of time-course power in all frequency bands across an entire episode. Using the spectral power time-courses in the sleep electroencephalogram (EEG), we showed in the typical first episode, several moves towards-and-away from deep sleep, each having an identical pattern linking the major frequency bands beta, sigma and delta. The neuronal transition probability model (NTP) – in fitting the data well – successfully explained the pattern as resulting from stochastic transitions of the firing-rates of the thalamically-projecting brainstem-activating neurons, alternating between two steady dynamic-states (towards-and-away from deep sleep) each initiated by a so-far unidentified flip-flop. The aims here are to identify this flip-flop and to demonstrate that the model fits well all NREM episodes, not just the first. Using published data on suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) activity we show that the SCN has the information required to provide a threshold-triggered flip-flop for timing the towards-and-away alternations, information provided by sleep-relevant feedback to the SCN. NTP then determines the pattern of spectral power within each dynamic-state. NTP was fitted to individual NREM episodes 1–4, using data from 30 healthy subjects aged 20–30 years, and the quality of fit for each NREM measured. We show that the model fits well all NREM episodes and the best-fit probability-set is found to be effectively the same in fitting all subject data. The significant model-data agreement, the constant probability parameter and the proposed role of the SCN add considerable strength to the model. With it we link for the first time findings at cellular level and detailed time-course data at EEG level, to give a coherent picture of NREM dynamics over the entire night and over hierarchic brain levels all the way from the SCN to the

  20. Transition and Electron Impact Excitation Collision Rates for O III

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tayal, S. S.; Zatsarinny, O.

    2017-12-01

    Transition probabilities, electron excitation collision strengths, and rate coefficients for a large number of O III lines over a broad wavelength range, from the infrared to ultraviolet, have been reported. The collision strengths have been calculated in the close-coupling approximation using the B-spline Breit-Pauli R-matrix method. The multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock method in combination with B-spline expansions is employed for an accurate representation of the target wave functions. The close-coupling expansion contains 202 O2+ fine-structure levels of the 2{s}22{p}2,2s2{p}3, 2{p}4,2{s}22p3s,3p,3d, 4s,4p,4d,4f,5s, and 2s2{p}33s,3p,3d configurations. The effective collision strengths are obtained by averaging electron excitation collision strengths over a Maxwellian distribution of velocities at electron temperatures ranging from 100 to 100,000 K. The calculated effective collision strengths have been reported for the 20,302 transitions between all 202 fine-structure levels. There is an overall good agreement with the recent R-matrix calculations by Storey et al. for the transitions between all levels of the ground 2{s}22{p}2 configuration, but significant discrepancies have been found with Palay et al. for transitions to the 2{s}22{p}2 1 S 0 level. Line intensity ratios between the optical lines arising from the 2{s}22{p}2{}3{P}{0,1,2} - 1 D 2 transitions have been compared with other calculations and observations from the photoionized gaseous nebulae, and good agreement is found. The present calculations provide the most complete and accurate data sets, which should allow a more detailed treatment of the available measured spectra from different ground and space observatories.

  1. Probability theory, not the very guide of life.

    PubMed

    Juslin, Peter; Nilsson, Håkan; Winman, Anders

    2009-10-01

    Probability theory has long been taken as the self-evident norm against which to evaluate inductive reasoning, and classical demonstrations of violations of this norm include the conjunction error and base-rate neglect. Many of these phenomena require multiplicative probability integration, whereas people seem more inclined to linear additive integration, in part, at least, because of well-known capacity constraints on controlled thought. In this article, the authors show with computer simulations that when based on approximate knowledge of probabilities, as is routinely the case in natural environments, linear additive integration can yield as accurate estimates, and as good average decision returns, as estimates based on probability theory. It is proposed that in natural environments people have little opportunity or incentive to induce the normative rules of probability theory and, given their cognitive constraints, linear additive integration may often offer superior bounded rationality.

  2. Method of self-consistent evaluation of absolute emission probabilities of particles and gamma rays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badikov, Sergei; Chechev, Valery

    2017-09-01

    In assumption of well installed decay scheme the method provides a) exact balance relationships, b) lower (compared to the traditional techniques) uncertainties of recommended absolute emission probabilities of particles and gamma rays, c) evaluation of correlations between the recommended emission probabilities (for the same and different decay modes). Application of the method for the decay data evaluation for even curium isotopes led to paradoxical results. The multidimensional confidence regions for the probabilities of the most intensive alpha transitions constructed on the basis of present and the ENDF/B-VII.1, JEFF-3.1, DDEP evaluations are inconsistent whereas the confidence intervals for the evaluated probabilities of single transitions agree with each other.

  3. Aggregate and individual replication probability within an explicit model of the research process.

    PubMed

    Miller, Jeff; Schwarz, Wolf

    2011-09-01

    We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by obtaining either a statistically significant result in the same direction or any effect in that direction. We analyze both the probability of successfully replicating a particular experimental effect (i.e., the individual replication probability) and the average probability of successful replication across different studies within some research context (i.e., the aggregate replication probability), and we identify the conditions under which the latter can be approximated using the formulas of Killeen (2005a, 2007). We show how both of these probabilities depend on parameters of the research context that would rarely be known in practice. In addition, we show that the statistical uncertainty associated with the size of an initial observed effect would often prevent accurate estimation of the desired individual replication probability even if these research context parameters were known exactly. We conclude that accurate estimates of replication probability are generally unattainable.

  4. Statistical physics approaches to quantifying sleep-stage transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lo, Chung-Chuan

    Sleep can be viewed as a sequence of transitions in a very complex neuronal system. Traditionally, studies of the dynamics of sleep control have focused on the circadian rhythm of sleep-wake transitions or on the ultradian rhythm of the sleep cycle. However, very little is known about the mechanisms responsible for the time structure or even the statistics of the rapid sleep-stage transitions that appear without periodicity. I study the time dynamics of sleep-wake transitions for different species, including humans, rats, and mice, and find that the wake and sleep episodes exhibit completely different behaviors: the durations of wake episodes are characterized by a scale-free power-law distribution, while the durations of sleep episodes have an exponential distribution with a characteristic time scale. The functional forms of the distributions of the sleep and wake durations hold for human subjects of different ages and for subjects with sleep apnea. They also hold for all the species I investigate. Surprisingly, all species have the same power-law exponent for the distribution of wake durations, but the exponential characteristic time of the distribution of sleep durations changes across species. I develop a stochastic model which accurately reproduces our empirical findings. The model suggests that the difference between the dynamics of the sleep and wake states arises from the constraints on the number of microstates in the sleep-wake system. I develop a measure of asymmetry in sleep-stage transitions using a transition probability matrix. I find that both normal and sleep apnea subjects are characterized by two types of asymmetric sleep-stage transition paths, and that the sleep apnea group exhibits less asymmetry in the sleep-stage transitions.

  5. Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

    2008-01-01

    In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

  6. Cross Check of NOvA Oscillation Probabilities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Parke, Stephen J.; Messier, Mark D.

    2018-01-12

    In this note we perform a cross check of the programs used by NOvA to calculate the 3-flavor oscillation probabilities with a independent program using a different method. The comparison is performed at 6 significant figures and the agreement,more » $$|\\Delta P|/P$$ is better than $$10^{-5}$$, as good as can be expected with 6 significant figures. In addition, a simple and accurate alternative method to calculate the oscillation probabilities is outlined and compared in the L/E range and matter density relevant for the NOvA experiment.« less

  7. New Accurate Oscillator Strengths and Electron Excitation Collision Strengths for N I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tayal, S. S.

    2006-03-01

    The nonorthogonal orbitals technique in a multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock approach is used to calculate oscillator strengths and transition probabilities of N I lines. The relativistic effects are allowed by means of Breit-Pauli operators. The length and velocity forms of oscillator strengths show good agreement for most transitions. The B-spline R-matrix with pseudostates approach has been used to calculate electron excitation collision strengths and rates. The nonorthogonal orbitals are used for an accurate description of both target wave functions and the R-matrix basis functions. The 24 spectroscopic bound and autoionizing states together with 15 pseudostates are included in the close-coupling expansion. The collision strengths for transitions between fine-structure levels are calculated by transforming the LS-coupled K-matrices to K-matrices in an intermediate coupling scheme. Thermally averaged collision strengths have been determined by integrating collision strengths over a Maxwellian distribution of electron energies over a temperature range suitable for the modeling of astrophysical plasmas. The oscillator strengths and thermally averaged collision strengths are presented for transitions between the fine-structure levels of the 2s22p3 4So, 2Do, 2Po, 2s2p4 4P, 2s22p23s 4P, and 2P terms and from these levels to the levels of the 2s22p23p 2So, 4Do, 4Po, 4So, 2Do, 2Po, 2s22p23s 2D, 2s22p24s 4P, 2P, 2s22p23d 2P, 4F, 2F, 4P, 4D, and 2D terms. Thermally averaged collision strengths are tabulated over a temperature range from 500 to 50,000 K.

  8. Stark broadening parameters and transition probabilities of persistent lines of Tl II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Andrés-García, I.; Colón, C.; Fernández-Martínez, F.

    2018-05-01

    The presence of singly ionized thallium in the stellar atmosphere of the chemically peculiar star χ Lupi was reported by Leckrone et al. in 1999 by analysis of its stellar spectrum obtained with the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) on board the Hubble Space Telescope. Atomic data about the spectral line of 1307.50 Å and about the hyperfine components of the spectral lines of 1321.71 Å and 1908.64 Å were taken from different sources and used to analyse the isotopic abundance of thallium II in the star χ Lupi. From their results the authors concluded that the photosphere of the star presents an anomalous isotopic composition of Tl II. A study of the atomic parameters of Tl II and of the broadening by the Stark effect of its spectral lines (and therefore of the possible overlaps of these lines) can help to clarify the conclusions about the spectral abundance of Tl II in different stars. In this paper we present calculated values of the atomic transition probabilities and Stark broadening parameters for 49 spectral lines of Tl II obtained by using the Cowan code including core polarization effects and the Griem semiempirical approach. Theoretical values of radiative lifetimes for 11 levels (eight with experimental values in the bibliography) are calculated and compared with the experimental values in order to test the quality of our results. Theoretical trends of the Stark width and shift parameters versus the temperature for spectral lines of astrophysical interest are displayed. Trends of our calculated Stark width for the isoelectronic sequence Tl II-Pb III-Bi IV are also displayed.

  9. Probability distributions of linear statistics in chaotic cavities and associated phase transitions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Vivo, Pierpaolo; Majumdar, Satya N.; Bohigas, Oriol

    2010-03-01

    We establish large deviation formulas for linear statistics on the N transmission eigenvalues (T{sub i}) of a chaotic cavity, in the framework of random matrix theory. Given any linear statistics of interest A=SIGMA{sub i=1}{sup N}a(T{sub i}), the probability distribution P{sub A}(A,N) of A generically satisfies the large deviation formula lim{sub N-}>{sub i}nfinity[-2 log P{sub A}(Nx,N)/betaN{sup 2}]=PSI{sub A}(x), where PSI{sub A}(x) is a rate function that we compute explicitly in many cases (conductance, shot noise, and moments) and beta corresponds to different symmetry classes. Using these large deviation expressions, it is possible to recover easily known results and to produce newmore » formulas, such as a closed form expression for v(n)=lim{sub N-}>{sub i}nfinity var(T{sub n}) (where T{sub n}=SIGMA{sub i}T{sub i}{sup n}) for arbitrary integer n. The universal limit v*=lim{sub n-}>{sub i}nfinity v(n)=1/2pibeta is also computed exactly. The distributions display a central Gaussian region flanked on both sides by non-Gaussian tails. At the junction of the two regimes, weakly nonanalytical points appear, a direct consequence of phase transitions in an associated Coulomb gas problem. Numerical checks are also provided, which are in full agreement with our asymptotic results in both real and Laplace space even for moderately small N. Part of the results have been announced by Vivo et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 101, 216809 (2008)].« less

  10. Multipartite entanglement characterization of a quantum phase transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costantini, G.; Facchi, P.; Florio, G.; Pascazio, S.

    2007-07-01

    A probability density characterization of multipartite entanglement is tested on the one-dimensional quantum Ising model in a transverse field. The average and second moment of the probability distribution are numerically shown to be good indicators of the quantum phase transition. We comment on multipartite entanglement generation at a quantum phase transition.

  11. Can cancer researchers accurately judge whether preclinical reports will reproduce?

    PubMed Central

    Mandel, David R.; Kimmelman, Jonathan

    2017-01-01

    There is vigorous debate about the reproducibility of research findings in cancer biology. Whether scientists can accurately assess which experiments will reproduce original findings is important to determining the pace at which science self-corrects. We collected forecasts from basic and preclinical cancer researchers on the first 6 replication studies conducted by the Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology (RP:CB) to assess the accuracy of expert judgments on specific replication outcomes. On average, researchers forecasted a 75% probability of replicating the statistical significance and a 50% probability of replicating the effect size, yet none of these studies successfully replicated on either criterion (for the 5 studies with results reported). Accuracy was related to expertise: experts with higher h-indices were more accurate, whereas experts with more topic-specific expertise were less accurate. Our findings suggest that experts, especially those with specialized knowledge, were overconfident about the RP:CB replicating individual experiments within published reports; researcher optimism likely reflects a combination of overestimating the validity of original studies and underestimating the difficulties of repeating their methodologies. PMID:28662052

  12. Study on the spectroscopic parameters and transition probabilities of 25 low-lying states of the AlC+ cation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jicai; Shi, Deheng; Xing, Wei; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2017-11-01

    This paper investigates the spectroscopic parameters and transition probabilities of 25 low-lying states, which come from the first five dissociation channels of AlC+ cation. The potential energy curves are calculated with the complete active space self-consistent field method, which is followed by the valence internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with Davidson correction. Of these 25 states, only the 35Σ-state is repulsive; the c1Σ+, f1Π, and 15Π states have the double well; the first well of c1Σ+ state and the second well of 15Π state are very weakly bound; the first well of c1Σ+ state has no vibrational levels; the 25Π state and the double well of f1Π state have only several vibrational states; the B3Σ-, E3Σ+, D3Π, 15Σ+, 25Σ-, and 15Π states are inverted when the spin-orbit coupling effect is included. The avoided crossings exist between the B3Σ- and 33Σ- states, the c1Σ+ and d1Σ+ states, the f1Π and 31Π states, the 15Π and 25Π states, as well as the 25Π and 35Π states. Core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections are considered. The extrapolation of potential energies to the complete basis set limit is done. The spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are determined for all the Λ-S and Ω bound states. The transition dipole moments are calculated. Franck-Condon factors of a great number of electronic transitions are evaluated. On the whole, the spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels is small except for very few states. The results determined in this paper could provide some powerful guidelines to observe these states in a spectroscopy experiment.

  13. Electrofishing capture probability of smallmouth bass in streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

    2007-01-01

    Abundance estimation is an integral part of understanding the ecology and advancing the management of fish populations and communities. Mark-recapture and removal methods are commonly used to estimate the abundance of stream fishes. Alternatively, abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of individuals sampled by the probability of capture. We conducted a mark-recapture study and used multiple repeated-measures logistic regression to determine the influence of fish size, sampling procedures, and stream habitat variables on the cumulative capture probability for smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in two eastern Oklahoma streams. The predicted capture probability was used to adjust the number of individuals sampled to obtain abundance estimates. The observed capture probabilities were higher for larger fish and decreased with successive electrofishing passes for larger fish only. Model selection suggested that the number of electrofishing passes, fish length, and mean thalweg depth affected capture probabilities the most; there was little evidence for any effect of electrofishing power density and woody debris density on capture probability. Leave-one-out cross validation showed that the cumulative capture probability model predicts smallmouth abundance accurately. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  14. Betting on change: modeling transitional probabilities to guide therapy development for opioid dependence.

    PubMed

    Carpenter, Kenneth M; Jiang, Huiping; Sullivan, Maria A; Bisaga, Adam; Comer, Sandra D; Raby, Wilfrid Noel; Brooks, Adam C; Nunes, Edward V

    2009-03-01

    This study investigated the process of change by modeling transitions among four clinical states encountered in 64 detoxified opiate-dependent individuals treated with daily oral naltrexone: no opiate use, blocked opiate use (i.e., opiate use while adhering to oral naltrexone), unblocked opiate use (i.e., opiate use after having discontinued oral naltrexone), and treatment dropout. The effects of baseline characteristics and two psychosocial interventions of differing intensity, behavioral naltrexone therapy (BNT) and compliance enhancement (CE), on these transitions were studied. Participants using greater quantities of opiates were more likely than other participants to be retained in BNT relative to CE. Markov modeling indicated a transition from abstinence to treatment dropout was approximately 3.56 times greater among participants in CE relative to participants in BNT, indicating the more comprehensive psychosocial intervention kept participants engaged in treatment longer. Transitions to stopping treatment were more likely to occur after unblocked opiate use in both treatments. Continued opiate use while being blocked accounted for a relatively low proportion of transitions to abstinence and may have more deleterious effects later in a treatment episode. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Methods for Estimating Kidney Disease Stage Transition Probabilities Using Electronic Medical Records

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Lola; Small, Dylan; Stewart, Walter F.; Roy, Jason A.

    2013-01-01

    Chronic diseases are often described by stages of severity. Clinical decisions about what to do are influenced by the stage, whether a patient is progressing, and the rate of progression. For chronic kidney disease (CKD), relatively little is known about the transition rates between stages. To address this, we used electronic health records (EHR) data on a large primary care population, which should have the advantage of having both sufficient follow-up time and sample size to reliably estimate transition rates for CKD. However, EHR data have some features that threaten the validity of any analysis. In particular, the timing and frequency of laboratory values and clinical measurements are not determined a priori by research investigators, but rather, depend on many factors, including the current health of the patient. We developed an approach for estimating CKD stage transition rates using hidden Markov models (HMMs), when the level of information and observation time vary among individuals. To estimate the HMMs in a computationally manageable way, we used a “discretization” method to transform daily data into intervals of 30 days, 90 days, or 180 days. We assessed the accuracy and computation time of this method via simulation studies. We also used simulations to study the effect of informative observation times on the estimated transition rates. Our simulation results showed good performance of the method, even when missing data are non-ignorable. We applied the methods to EHR data from over 60,000 primary care patients who have chronic kidney disease (stage 2 and above). We estimated transition rates between six underlying disease states. The results were similar for men and women. PMID:25848580

  16. Video Shot Boundary Detection Using QR-Decomposition and Gaussian Transition Detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amiri, Ali; Fathy, Mahmood

    2010-12-01

    This article explores the problem of video shot boundary detection and examines a novel shot boundary detection algorithm by using QR-decomposition and modeling of gradual transitions by Gaussian functions. Specifically, the authors attend to the challenges of detecting gradual shots and extracting appropriate spatiotemporal features that affect the ability of algorithms to efficiently detect shot boundaries. The algorithm utilizes the properties of QR-decomposition and extracts a block-wise probability function that illustrates the probability of video frames to be in shot transitions. The probability function has abrupt changes in hard cut transitions, and semi-Gaussian behavior in gradual transitions. The algorithm detects these transitions by analyzing the probability function. Finally, we will report the results of the experiments using large-scale test sets provided by the TRECVID 2006, which has assessments for hard cut and gradual shot boundary detection. These results confirm the high performance of the proposed algorithm.

  17. High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

    PubMed

    Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

    2018-01-01

    In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

  18. High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation

    PubMed Central

    Farmer, Jenny

    2018-01-01

    In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference. PMID:29750803

  19. Optimizing exoplanet transit searches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrero, E.; Ribas, I.; Jordi, C.

    2013-05-01

    Exoplanet searches using the transit technique are nowadays providing a great number of findings. Most exoplanet transit detection programs that are currently underway are focused on large catalogs of stars with no pre-selection. This necessarily makes such surveys quite inefficient, because huge amounts of data are processed for a relatively low transiting planet yield. In this work we investigate a method to increase the efficiency of a targeted exoplanet search with the transit technique by preselecting a subset of candidates from large catalogs of stars. Assuming spin-orbit alignment, this can be done by considering stars that have higher probability to be oriented nearly equator-on (inclination close to 90°). We use activity-rotation velocity relations for low-mass stars to study the dependence of the position in the activity - v sin(i) diagram on the stellar axis inclination. We compose a catalog of G-, K-, M-type main sequence simulated stars using isochrones, an isotropic inclination distribution and empirical relations to obtain their rotation periods and activity indexes. Then the activity-vsini diagram is filled and statistics are applied to trace the areas containing the higher ratio of stars with inclinations above 80°. A similar statistics is applied to stars from real catalogs with log(R'_{HK}) and v sin(i) data to find their probability of being equator-on. We present the method used to generate the simulated star catalog and the subsequent statistics to find the highly inclined stars from real catalogs using the activity-v sin(i) diagram. Several catalogs from the literature are analysed and a subsample of stars with the highest probability of being equator-on is presented. Assuming spin-orbit alignment, the efficiency of an exoplanet transit search in the resulting subsample of probably highly inclined stars is estimated to be two to three times higher than with a global search with no pre-selection.

  20. Extensive computation of allowed and forbidden transition probabilities in the potassium isoelectronic sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dixit, Gopal; Deshmukh, Pranawa C.; Manson, Steven T.; Majumder, Sonjoy

    2007-06-01

    Our primary aim in this work is to present both allowed and forbidden transition amplitudes and corresponding wavelengths and oscillator strengths for a few ions in the 19-electron potassium isoelectronic sequence. All of these ions have the configuration [Ar] 3^2D3/2 as their ground state, except in the case of K and Ca^+, where it is [Ar] 4^2S1/2.This difference in ground state configuration arises due to strong contributions of correlation effects in the energy levels of these systems [1]. Allowed and forbidden transitions in these systems are of great importance in astrophysics [2] and in laboratory plasma research [3]. We apply in the present work the relativistic coupled-cluster (RCC) theory [4] to evaluate the energy levels and wave functions of these systems and study amplitudes for electric and magnetic dipole transition amplitudes and also the electric quadrupole transition amplitudes. The contributions of various electron correlation effects to the transition amplitudes are estimated in some detail using the RCC theory. [1] Gopal Dixit et al., Astrophys. J (submitted); arXiv.org: physics/0702066. [2] C. R. Cowley and G. M. Wahlgern, Astronomy & Astrophysics, 447, 681 (2002). [3] J. E. Vernazza, E. M. Reeves, Astrophys. J. Suppl. 37, 485 (1978) [4] I. Lindgren, Physics Scripta, 36, 591 (1987).

  1. FTA real-time transit information assessment : white paper on literature review of real-time transit information systems.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    Real-time transit information systems are key technology applications within the transit industry designed to provide better customer service by disseminating timely and accurate information. Riders use this information to make various decisions abou...

  2. ACCURATE CHEMICAL MASTER EQUATION SOLUTION USING MULTI-FINITE BUFFERS

    PubMed Central

    Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a fundamental framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic networks. Because of the multi-scale nature of many networks where reaction rates have large disparity, directly solving dCMEs is intractable due to the exploding size of the state space. It is important to truncate the state space effectively with quantified errors, so accurate solutions can be computed. It is also important to know if all major probabilistic peaks have been computed. Here we introduce the Accurate CME (ACME) algorithm for obtaining direct solutions to dCMEs. With multi-finite buffers for reducing the state space by O(n!), exact steady-state and time-evolving network probability landscapes can be computed. We further describe a theoretical framework of aggregating microstates into a smaller number of macrostates by decomposing a network into independent aggregated birth and death processes, and give an a priori method for rapidly determining steady-state truncation errors. The maximal sizes of the finite buffers for a given error tolerance can also be pre-computed without costly trial solutions of dCMEs. We show exactly computed probability landscapes of three multi-scale networks, namely, a 6-node toggle switch, 11-node phage-lambda epigenetic circuit, and 16-node MAPK cascade network, the latter two with no known solutions. We also show how probabilities of rare events can be computed from first-passage times, another class of unsolved problems challenging for simulation-based techniques due to large separations in time scales. Overall, the ACME method enables accurate and efficient solutions of the dCME for a large class of networks. PMID:27761104

  3. Accurate chemical master equation solution using multi-finite buffers

    DOE PAGES

    Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

    2016-06-29

    Here, the discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a fundamental framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic networks. Because of the multiscale nature of many networks where reaction rates have a large disparity, directly solving dCMEs is intractable due to the exploding size of the state space. It is important to truncate the state space effectively with quantified errors, so accurate solutions can be computed. It is also important to know if all major probabilistic peaks have been computed. Here we introduce the accurate CME (ACME) algorithm for obtaining direct solutions to dCMEs. With multifinite buffers for reducing the state spacemore » by $O(n!)$, exact steady-state and time-evolving network probability landscapes can be computed. We further describe a theoretical framework of aggregating microstates into a smaller number of macrostates by decomposing a network into independent aggregated birth and death processes and give an a priori method for rapidly determining steady-state truncation errors. The maximal sizes of the finite buffers for a given error tolerance can also be precomputed without costly trial solutions of dCMEs. We show exactly computed probability landscapes of three multiscale networks, namely, a 6-node toggle switch, 11-node phage-lambda epigenetic circuit, and 16-node MAPK cascade network, the latter two with no known solutions. We also show how probabilities of rare events can be computed from first-passage times, another class of unsolved problems challenging for simulation-based techniques due to large separations in time scales. Overall, the ACME method enables accurate and efficient solutions of the dCME for a large class of networks.« less

  4. Accurate chemical master equation solution using multi-finite buffers

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

    Here, the discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a fundamental framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic networks. Because of the multiscale nature of many networks where reaction rates have a large disparity, directly solving dCMEs is intractable due to the exploding size of the state space. It is important to truncate the state space effectively with quantified errors, so accurate solutions can be computed. It is also important to know if all major probabilistic peaks have been computed. Here we introduce the accurate CME (ACME) algorithm for obtaining direct solutions to dCMEs. With multifinite buffers for reducing the state spacemore » by $O(n!)$, exact steady-state and time-evolving network probability landscapes can be computed. We further describe a theoretical framework of aggregating microstates into a smaller number of macrostates by decomposing a network into independent aggregated birth and death processes and give an a priori method for rapidly determining steady-state truncation errors. The maximal sizes of the finite buffers for a given error tolerance can also be precomputed without costly trial solutions of dCMEs. We show exactly computed probability landscapes of three multiscale networks, namely, a 6-node toggle switch, 11-node phage-lambda epigenetic circuit, and 16-node MAPK cascade network, the latter two with no known solutions. We also show how probabilities of rare events can be computed from first-passage times, another class of unsolved problems challenging for simulation-based techniques due to large separations in time scales. Overall, the ACME method enables accurate and efficient solutions of the dCME for a large class of networks.« less

  5. Effects of hydrogen-like impurity and electromagnetic field on quantum transition of an electron in a Gaussian potential with QD thickness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xin, Wei; Zhao, Yu-Wei; Sudu; Eerdunchaolu

    2018-05-01

    Considering Hydrogen-like impurity and the thickness effect, the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the electronic ground and first exited states in a quantum dot (QD) are derived by using the Lee-Low-Pins-Pekar variational method with the harmonic and Gaussian potentials as the transverse and longitudinal confinement potentials, respectively. A two-level system is constructed on the basis of those two states, and the electronic quantum transition affected by an electromagnetic field is discussed in terms of the two-level system theory. The results indicate the Gaussian potential reflects the real confinement potential more accurately than the parabolic one; the influence of the thickness of the QD on the electronic transition probability is interesting and significant, and cannot be ignored; the electronic transition probability Γ is influenced significantly by some physical quantities, such as the strength of the electron-phonon coupling α, the electric-field strength F, the magnetic-field cyclotron frequency ωc , the barrier height V0 and confinement range L of the asymmetric Gaussian potential, suggesting the transport and optical properties of the QD can be manipulated further though those physical quantities.

  6. Veterinary diagnostic imaging: Probability, accuracy and impact.

    PubMed

    Lamb, Christopher R

    2016-09-01

    Diagnostic imaging is essential for diagnosis and management of many common problems in veterinary medicine, but imaging is not 100% accurate and does not always benefit the animal in the way intended. When assessing the need for imaging, the probability that the animal has a morphological lesion, the accuracy of the imaging and the likelihood of a beneficial impact on the animal must all be considered. Few imaging tests are sufficiently accurate that they enable a diagnosis to be ruled in or out; instead, the results of imaging only modify the probability of a diagnosis. Potential problems with excessive use of imaging include false positive diagnoses, detection of incidental findings and over-diagnosis, all of which may contribute to a negative benefit to the animal. Veterinary clinicians must be selective in their use of imaging, use existing clinical information when interpreting images and sensibly apply the results of imaging in the context of the needs of individual animals. There is a need for more clinical research to assess the impact of diagnostic imaging for animals with common conditions to help clinicians make decisions conducive to optimal patient care. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Transition probabilities in OH A 2 sigma + - X 2 pi i: Bands with v prime = 0 and 1, v double prime = 0 to 4

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Copeland, Richard A.; Jeffries, Jay B.; Crosley, David R.

    1986-01-01

    Experimental results for relative vibrational band transition probabilities for v prime = 0 and 1, and v double prime = 0 to 4 in the A-X electronic system of OH are presented. The measurements, part of a larger set involving v prime = 0 to 4 and v double prime = 0 to 6, were made using spectrally dispersed laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) in the burnt gases of a flame. These Einstein coefficients will be useful in dynamics experiments for quantitative LIF determinations of OH radical concentrations in high v double prime.

  8. Projection of postgraduate students flow with a smoothing matrix transition diagram of Markov chain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahim, Rahela; Ibrahim, Haslinda; Adnan, Farah Adibah

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a case study of modeling postgraduate students flow at the College of Art and Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia. First, full time postgraduate students and the semester they were in are identified. Then administrative data were used to estimate the transitions between these semesters for the year 2001-2005 periods. Markov chain model is developed to calculate the -5 and -10 years projection of postgraduate students flow at the college. The optimization question addressed in this study is 'Which transitions would sustain the desired structure in the dynamic situation such as trend towards graduation?' The smoothed transition probabilities are proposed to estimate the transition probabilities matrix of 16 × 16. The results shows that using smoothed transition probabilities, the projection number of postgraduate students enrolled in the respective semesters are closer to actual than using the conventional steady states transition probabilities.

  9. Radiative rates for forbidden M1 and E2 transitions of astrophysical interest in doubly ionized iron-peak elements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fivet, V.; Quinet, P.; Bautista, M. A.

    2016-01-01

    Aims: Accurate and reliable atomic data for lowly ionized Fe-peak species (Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, and Ni) are of paramount importance for analyzing the high-resolution astrophysical spectra currently available. The third spectra of several iron group elements have been observed in different galactic sources, such as Herbig-Haro objects in the Orion Nebula and stars like Eta Carinae. However, forbidden M1 and E2 transitions between low-lying metastable levels of doubly charged iron-peak ions have been investigated very little so far, and radiative rates for those lines remain sparse or nonexistent. We attempt to fill that gap and provide transition probabilities for the most important forbidden lines of all doubly ionized iron-peak elements. Methods: We carried out a systematic study of the electronic structure of doubly ionized Fe-peak species. The magnetic dipole (M1) and electric quadrupole (E2) transition probabilities were computed using the pseudo-relativistic Hartree-Fock (HFR) code of Cowan and the central Thomas-Fermi-Dirac-Amaldi potential approximation implemented in AUTOSTRUCTURE. This multiplatform approach allowed for consistency checks and intercomparison and has proven very useful in many previous works for estimating the uncertainties affecting the radiative data. Results: We present transition probabilities for the M1 and E2 forbidden lines depopulating the metastable even levels belonging to the 3dk and 3dk-14s configurations in Sc III (k = 1), Ti III (k = 2), V III (k = 3), Cr III (k = 4), Mn III (k = 5), Fe III (k = 6), Co III (k = 7), and Ni III (k = 8).

  10. Dynamics of Sleep Stage Transitions in Health and Disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kishi, Akifumi; Struzik, Zbigniew R.; Natelson, Benjamin H.; Togo, Fumiharu; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu

    2007-07-01

    Sleep dynamics emerges from complex interactions between neuronal populations in many brain regions. Annotated sleep stages from electroencephalography (EEG) recordings could potentially provide a non-invasive way to obtain valuable insights into the mechanisms of these interactions, and ultimately into the very nature of sleep regulation. However, to date, sleep stage analysis has been restricted, only very recently expanding the scope of the traditional descriptive statistics to more dynamical concepts of the duration of and transitions between vigilance states and temporal evaluation of transition probabilities among different stages. Physiological and/or pathological implications of the dynamics of sleep stage transitions have, to date, not been investigated. Here, we study detailed duration and transition statistics among sleep stages in healthy humans and patients with chronic fatigue syndrome, known to be associated with disturbed sleep. We find that the durations of waking and non-REM sleep, in particular deep sleep (Stages III and IV), during the nighttime, follow a power-law probability distribution function, while REM sleep durations follow an exponential function, suggestive of complex underlying mechanisms governing the onset of light sleep. We also find a substantial number of REM to non-REM transitions in humans, while this transition is reported to be virtually non-existent in rats. Interestingly, the probability of this REM to non-REM transition is significantly lower in the patients than in controls, resulting in a significantly greater REM to awake, together with Stage I to awake, transition probability. This might potentially account for the reported poor sleep quality in the patients because the normal continuation of sleep after either the lightest or REM sleep is disrupted. We conclude that the dynamical transition analysis of sleep stages is useful for elucidating yet-to-be-determined human sleep regulation mechanisms with a

  11. Space Object Collision Probability via Monte Carlo on the Graphics Processing Unit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vittaldev, Vivek; Russell, Ryan P.

    2017-09-01

    Fast and accurate collision probability computations are essential for protecting space assets. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the most accurate but computationally intensive method. A Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is used to parallelize the computation and reduce the overall runtime. Using MC techniques to compute the collision probability is common in literature as the benchmark. An optimized implementation on the GPU, however, is a challenging problem and is the main focus of the current work. The MC simulation takes samples from the uncertainty distributions of the Resident Space Objects (RSOs) at any time during a time window of interest and outputs the separations at closest approach. Therefore, any uncertainty propagation method may be used and the collision probability is automatically computed as a function of RSO collision radii. Integration using a fixed time step and a quartic interpolation after every Runge Kutta step ensures that no close approaches are missed. Two orders of magnitude speedups over a serial CPU implementation are shown, and speedups improve moderately with higher fidelity dynamics. The tool makes the MC approach tractable on a single workstation, and can be used as a final product, or for verifying surrogate and analytical collision probability methods.

  12. Risk estimation using probability machines

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  13. Risk estimation using probability machines.

    PubMed

    Dasgupta, Abhijit; Szymczak, Silke; Moore, Jason H; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Malley, James D

    2014-03-01

    Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a "risk machine", will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from.

  14. Probability-based hazard avoidance guidance for planetary landing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Xu; Yu, Zhengshi; Cui, Pingyuan; Xu, Rui; Zhu, Shengying; Cao, Menglong; Luan, Enjie

    2018-03-01

    Future landing and sample return missions on planets and small bodies will seek landing sites with high scientific value, which may be located in hazardous terrains. Autonomous landing in such hazardous terrains and highly uncertain planetary environments is particularly challenging. Onboard hazard avoidance ability is indispensable, and the algorithms must be robust to uncertainties. In this paper, a novel probability-based hazard avoidance guidance method is developed for landing in hazardous terrains on planets or small bodies. By regarding the lander state as probabilistic, the proposed guidance algorithm exploits information on the uncertainty of lander position and calculates the probability of collision with each hazard. The collision probability serves as an accurate safety index, which quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the lander safety. Based on the collision probability evaluation, the state uncertainty of the lander is explicitly taken into account in the derivation of the hazard avoidance guidance law, which contributes to enhancing the robustness to the uncertain dynamics of planetary landing. The proposed probability-based method derives fully analytic expressions and does not require off-line trajectory generation. Therefore, it is appropriate for real-time implementation. The performance of the probability-based guidance law is investigated via a set of simulations, and the effectiveness and robustness under uncertainties are demonstrated.

  15. Accurate and efficient calculation of response times for groundwater flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carr, Elliot J.; Simpson, Matthew J.

    2018-03-01

    We study measures of the amount of time required for transient flow in heterogeneous porous media to effectively reach steady state, also known as the response time. Here, we develop a new approach that extends the concept of mean action time. Previous applications of the theory of mean action time to estimate the response time use the first two central moments of the probability density function associated with the transition from the initial condition, at t = 0, to the steady state condition that arises in the long time limit, as t → ∞ . This previous approach leads to a computationally convenient estimation of the response time, but the accuracy can be poor. Here, we outline a powerful extension using the first k raw moments, showing how to produce an extremely accurate estimate by making use of asymptotic properties of the cumulative distribution function. Results are validated using an existing laboratory-scale data set describing flow in a homogeneous porous medium. In addition, we demonstrate how the results also apply to flow in heterogeneous porous media. Overall, the new method is: (i) extremely accurate; and (ii) computationally inexpensive. In fact, the computational cost of the new method is orders of magnitude less than the computational effort required to study the response time by solving the transient flow equation. Furthermore, the approach provides a rigorous mathematical connection with the heuristic argument that the response time for flow in a homogeneous porous medium is proportional to L2 / D , where L is a relevant length scale, and D is the aquifer diffusivity. Here, we extend such heuristic arguments by providing a clear mathematical definition of the proportionality constant.

  16. Effective scheme to determine accurate defect formation energies and charge transition levels of point defects in semiconductors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Cang Lang; Li, Jian Chen; Gao, Wang; Tkatchenko, Alexandre; Jiang, Qing

    2017-12-01

    We propose an effective method to accurately determine the defect formation energy Ef and charge transition level ɛ of the point defects using exclusively cohesive energy Ecoh and the fundamental band gap Eg of pristine host materials. We find that Ef of the point defects can be effectively separated into geometric and electronic contributions with a functional form: Ef=χ Ecoh+λ Eg , where χ and λ are dictated by the geometric and electronic factors of the point defects (χ and λ are defect dependent). Such a linear combination of Ecoh and Eg reproduces Ef with an accuracy better than 5% for electronic structure methods ranging from hybrid density-functional theory (DFT) to many-body random-phase approximation (RPA) and experiments. Accordingly, ɛ is also determined by Ecoh/Eg and the defect geometric/electronic factors. The identified correlation is rather general for monovacancies and interstitials, which holds in a wide variety of semiconductors covering Si, Ge, phosphorenes, ZnO, GaAs, and InP, and enables one to obtain reliable values of Ef and ɛ of the point defects for RPA and experiments based on semilocal DFT calculations.

  17. Some New Twists to Problems Involving the Gaussian Probability Integral

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, Marvin K.; Divsalar, Dariush

    1997-01-01

    Using an alternate form of the Gaussian probability integral discovered a number of years ago, it is shown that the solution to a number of previously considered communication problems can be simplified and in some cases made more accurate(i.e., exact rather than bounded).

  18. X-Ray Transition Energies Database

    National Institute of Standards and Technology Data Gateway

    SRD 128 NIST X-Ray Transition Energies Database (Web, free access)   This X-ray transition table provides the energies and wavelengths for the K and L transitions connecting energy levels having principal quantum numbers n = 1, 2, 3, and 4. The elements covered include Z = 10, neon to Z = 100, fermium. There are two unique features of this data base: (1) a serious attempt to have all experimental values on a scale consistent with the International System of measurement (the SI) and (2) inclusion of accurate theoretical estimates for all transitions.

  19. An evaluation of procedures to estimate monthly precipitation probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legates, David R.

    1991-01-01

    Many frequency distributions have been used to evaluate monthly precipitation probabilities. Eight of these distributions (including Pearson type III, extreme value, and transform normal probability density functions) are comparatively examined to determine their ability to represent accurately variations in monthly precipitation totals for global hydroclimatological analyses. Results indicate that a modified version of the Box-Cox transform-normal distribution more adequately describes the 'true' precipitation distribution than does any of the other methods. This assessment was made using a cross-validation procedure for a global network of 253 stations for which at least 100 years of monthly precipitation totals were available.

  20. Highly Accurate and Precise Infrared Transition Frequencies of the H_3^+ Cation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, Adam J.; Markus, Charles R.; Hodges, James N.; Kocheril, G. Stephen; McCall, Benjamin J.

    2016-06-01

    Calculation of ab initio potential energy surfaces for molecules to high accuracy is only manageable for a handful of molecular systems. Among them is the simplest polyatomic molecule, the H_3^+ cation. In order to achieve a high degree of accuracy (<1 wn) corrections must be made to the to the traditional Born-Oppenheimer approximation that take into account not only adiabatic and non-adiabatic couplings, but quantum electrodynamic corrections as well. For the lowest rovibrational levels the agreement between theory and experiment is approaching 0.001 wn, whereas the agreement is on the order of 0.01 - 0.1 wn for higher levels which are closely rivaling the uncertainties on the experimental data. As method development for calculating these various corrections progresses it becomes necessary for the uncertainties on the experimental data to be improved in order to properly benchmark the calculations. Previously we have measured 20 rovibrational transitions of H_3^+ with MHz-level precision, all of which have arisen from low lying rotational levels. Here we present new measurements of rovibrational transitions arising from higher rotational and vibrational levels. These transitions not only allow for probing higher energies on the potential energy surface, but through the use of combination differences, will ultimately lead to prediction of the "forbidden" rotational transitions with MHz-level accuracy. L.G. Diniz, J.R. Mohallem, A. Alijah, M. Pavanello, L. Adamowicz, O.L. Polyansky, J. Tennyson Phys. Rev. A (2013), 88, 032506 O.L. Polyansky, A. Alijah, N.F. Zobov, I.I. Mizus, R.I. Ovsyannikov, J. Tennyson, L. Lodi, T. Szidarovszky, A.G. Császár Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2012), 370, 5014 J.N. Hodges, A.J. Perry, P.A. Jenkins II, B.M. Siller, B.J. McCall J. Chem. Phys. (2013), 139, 164201 A.J. Perry, J.N. Hodges, C.R. Markus, G.S. Kocheril, B.J. McCall J. Molec. Spectrosc. (2015), 317, 71-73.

  1. Multiclass Posterior Probability Twin SVM for Motor Imagery EEG Classification.

    PubMed

    She, Qingshan; Ma, Yuliang; Meng, Ming; Luo, Zhizeng

    2015-01-01

    Motor imagery electroencephalography is widely used in the brain-computer interface systems. Due to inherent characteristics of electroencephalography signals, accurate and real-time multiclass classification is always challenging. In order to solve this problem, a multiclass posterior probability solution for twin SVM is proposed by the ranking continuous output and pairwise coupling in this paper. First, two-class posterior probability model is constructed to approximate the posterior probability by the ranking continuous output techniques and Platt's estimating method. Secondly, a solution of multiclass probabilistic outputs for twin SVM is provided by combining every pair of class probabilities according to the method of pairwise coupling. Finally, the proposed method is compared with multiclass SVM and twin SVM via voting, and multiclass posterior probability SVM using different coupling approaches. The efficacy on the classification accuracy and time complexity of the proposed method has been demonstrated by both the UCI benchmark datasets and real world EEG data from BCI Competition IV Dataset 2a, respectively.

  2. Implications of Weak Link Effects on Thermal Characteristics of Transition-Edge Sensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bailey, Catherine

    2011-01-01

    Weak link behavior in transition-edge sensor (TES) devices creates the need for a more careful characterization of a device's thermal characteristics through its transition. This is particularly true for small TESs where a small change in the measurement current results in large changes in temperature. A highly current-dependent transition shape makes accurate thermal characterization of the TES parameters through the transition challenging. To accurately interpret measurements, especially complex impedance, it is crucial to know the temperature-dependent thermal conductance, G(T), and heat capacity, C(T), at each point through the transition. We will present data illustrating these effects and discuss how we overcome the challenges that are present in accurately determining G and T from IV curves. We will also show how these weak link effects vary with TES size.

  3. Probability distribution of haplotype frequencies under the two-locus Wright-Fisher model by diffusion approximation.

    PubMed

    Boitard, Simon; Loisel, Patrice

    2007-05-01

    The probability distribution of haplotype frequencies in a population, and the way it is influenced by genetical forces such as recombination, selection, random drift ...is a question of fundamental interest in population genetics. For large populations, the distribution of haplotype frequencies for two linked loci under the classical Wright-Fisher model is almost impossible to compute because of numerical reasons. However the Wright-Fisher process can in such cases be approximated by a diffusion process and the transition density can then be deduced from the Kolmogorov equations. As no exact solution has been found for these equations, we developed a numerical method based on finite differences to solve them. It applies to transient states and models including selection or mutations. We show by several tests that this method is accurate for computing the conditional joint density of haplotype frequencies given that no haplotype has been lost. We also prove that it is far less time consuming than other methods such as Monte Carlo simulations.

  4. Probability Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duncan, M.; Frisbee, J.; Wysack, J.

    2014-09-01

    Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is defined as the knowledge and characterization of all aspects of space. SSA is now a fundamental and critical component of space operations. Increased dependence on our space assets has in turn lead to a greater need for accurate, near real-time knowledge of all space activities. With the growth of the orbital debris population, satellite operators are performing collision avoidance maneuvers more frequently. Frequent maneuver execution expends fuel and reduces the operational lifetime of the spacecraft. Thus the need for new, more sophisticated collision threat characterization methods must be implemented. The collision probability metric is used operationally to quantify the collision risk. The collision probability is typically calculated days into the future, so that high risk and potential high risk conjunction events are identified early enough to develop an appropriate course of action. As the time horizon to the conjunction event is reduced, the collision probability changes. A significant change in the collision probability will change the satellite mission stakeholder's course of action. So constructing a method for estimating how the collision probability will evolve improves operations by providing satellite operators with a new piece of information, namely an estimate or 'forecast' of how the risk will change as time to the event is reduced. Collision probability forecasting is a predictive process where the future risk of a conjunction event is estimated. The method utilizes a Monte Carlo simulation that produces a likelihood distribution for a given collision threshold. Using known state and state uncertainty information, the simulation generates a set possible trajectories for a given space object pair. Each new trajectory produces a unique event geometry at the time of close approach. Given state uncertainty information for both objects, a collision probability value can be computed for every trail. This yields a

  5. Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

    PubMed

    Mossman, D; Berger, J O

    2001-01-01

    Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

  6. Transition State Geometry Measurements from 13C Isotope Effects. The Experimental Transition State for the Epoxidation of Alkenes with Oxaziridines

    PubMed Central

    Hirschi, Jennifer S.; Takeya, Tetsuya; Hang, Chao; Singleton, Daniel A.

    2009-01-01

    We suggest here and evaluate a methodology for the measurement of specific interatomic distances from a combination of theoretical calculations and experimentally measured 13C kinetic isotope effects. This process takes advantage of a broad diversity of transition structures available for the epoxidation of 2-methyl-2-butene with oxaziridines. From the isotope effects calculated for these transition structures, a theory-independent relationship between the C-O bond distances of the newly forming bonds and the isotope effects is established. Within the precision of the measurement, this relationship in combination with the experimental isotope effects provides a highly accurate picture of the C-O bonds forming at the transition state. The diversity of transition structures also allows an evaluation of the Schramm process for defining transition state geometries based on calculations at non-stationary points, and the methodology is found to be reasonably accurate. PMID:19146405

  7. Patient Education and Support During CKD Transitions: When the Possible Becomes Probable.

    PubMed

    Green, Jamie A; Boulware, L Ebony

    2016-07-01

    Patients transitioning from kidney disease to kidney failure require comprehensive patient-centered education and support. Efforts to prepare patients for this transition often fail to meet patients' needs due to uncertainty about which patients will progress to kidney failure, nonindividualized patient education programs, inadequate psychosocial support, or lack of assistance to guide patients through complex treatment plans. Resources are available to help overcome barriers to providing optimal care during this time, including prognostic tools, educational lesson plans, decision aids, communication skills training, peer support, and patient navigation programs. New models are being studied to comprehensively address patients' needs and improve the lives of kidney patients during this high-risk time. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Fine structure transitions in Fe XIV

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nahar, Sultana N.

    2013-07-01

    Results are reported for Fe XIV energy levels and transitions obtained from the ab initio relativistic Breit-Pauli R-matrix (BPRM) method. BPRM method developed under the Iron Project is capable of calculating very large number of fine structure energy levels and corresponding transitions. However, unlike in the atomic structure calculations, where levels are identified spectroscopically based on the leading percentage contributions of configurations, BPRM is incapable of such identification of the levels and hence the transitions. The main reason for it is that the percentage contributions can not be determined exactly from the large number of channels in the R-matrix space. The present report describes an identification method that uses considerations of quantum defects of channels, contributions of channel from outer regions, Hund's rule, and angular momenta algebra for addition and completeness of fine structure components. The present calculations are carried out using a close coupling wave function expansion that included 26 core excitations from configurations 2s22p63s2, 2s22p63s3p,2s22p63p2,2s22p63s3d, and 2s22p63p3d. A total of 1002 fine structure levels with n ⩽ 10, l⩽9, and 0.5 ⩽J⩽ 9.5 with even and odd parities and the corresponding 130,520 electric dipole allowed (E1) fine structure transitions, a most complete set for astrophysical modelings of spectral analysis and opacities, is presented. Large number of new energy levels are found and identified. The energies agree very well, mostly in less than 1% with the highest being 1.9%, with the 68 observed fine structure levels. While the high lying levels may have some uncertainty, an overall accuracy of energy levels should be within 10%. BPRM transitions have been benchmarked with the existing most accurate calculated transition probabilities with very good agreement for most cases. Based on the accuracy of the method and comparisons, most of the transitions can be rated with A (⩽10%) to C (

  9. Sampling designs matching species biology produce accurate and affordable abundance indices

    PubMed Central

    Farley, Sean; Russell, Gareth J.; Butler, Matthew J.; Selinger, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife biologists often use grid-based designs to sample animals and generate abundance estimates. Although sampling in grids is theoretically sound, in application, the method can be logistically difficult and expensive when sampling elusive species inhabiting extensive areas. These factors make it challenging to sample animals and meet the statistical assumption of all individuals having an equal probability of capture. Violating this assumption biases results. Does an alternative exist? Perhaps by sampling only where resources attract animals (i.e., targeted sampling), it would provide accurate abundance estimates more efficiently and affordably. However, biases from this approach would also arise if individuals have an unequal probability of capture, especially if some failed to visit the sampling area. Since most biological programs are resource limited, and acquiring abundance data drives many conservation and management applications, it becomes imperative to identify economical and informative sampling designs. Therefore, we evaluated abundance estimates generated from grid and targeted sampling designs using simulations based on geographic positioning system (GPS) data from 42 Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos). Migratory salmon drew brown bears from the wider landscape, concentrating them at anadromous streams. This provided a scenario for testing the targeted approach. Grid and targeted sampling varied by trap amount, location (traps placed randomly, systematically or by expert opinion), and traps stationary or moved between capture sessions. We began by identifying when to sample, and if bears had equal probability of capture. We compared abundance estimates against seven criteria: bias, precision, accuracy, effort, plus encounter rates, and probabilities of capture and recapture. One grid (49 km2 cells) and one targeted configuration provided the most accurate results. Both placed traps by expert opinion and moved traps between capture sessions, which

  10. Capture-recapture studies for multiple strata including non-markovian transitions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.; Hestbeck, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    We consider capture-recapture studies where release and recapture data are available from each of a number of strata on every capture occasion. Strata may, for example, be geographic locations or physiological states. Movement of animals among strata occurs with unknown probabilities, and estimation of these unknown transition probabilities is the objective. We describe a computer routine for carrying out the analysis under a model that assumes Markovian transitions and under reduced parameter versions of this model. We also introduce models that relax the Markovian assumption and allow 'memory' to operate (i.e., allow dependence of the transition probabilities on the previous state). For these models, we sugg st an analysis based on a conditional likelihood approach. Methods are illustrated with data from a large study on Canada geese (Branta canadensis) banded in three geographic regions. The assumption of Markovian transitions is rejected convincingly for these data, emphasizing the importance of the more general models that allow memory.

  11. Transition path time distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laleman, M.; Carlon, E.; Orland, H.

    2017-12-01

    Biomolecular folding, at least in simple systems, can be described as a two state transition in a free energy landscape with two deep wells separated by a high barrier. Transition paths are the short part of the trajectories that cross the barrier. Average transition path times and, recently, their full probability distribution have been measured for several biomolecular systems, e.g., in the folding of nucleic acids or proteins. Motivated by these experiments, we have calculated the full transition path time distribution for a single stochastic particle crossing a parabolic barrier, including inertial terms which were neglected in previous studies. These terms influence the short time scale dynamics of a stochastic system and can be of experimental relevance in view of the short duration of transition paths. We derive the full transition path time distribution as well as the average transition path times and discuss the similarities and differences with the high friction limit.

  12. Prospective prediction of children's smoking transitions: role of parents' and older siblings' smoking.

    PubMed

    Bricker, Jonathan B; Peterson, Arthur V; Leroux, Brian G; Andersen, M Robyn; Rajan, K Bharat; Sarason, Irwin G

    2006-01-01

    To use a novel social epidemic probability model to investigate longitudinally the extent to which parents' and older siblings' smoking predict children's smoking transitions. Parents' and older siblings' smoking status was assessed when children were in 3rd grade (baseline). Three smoking transitions were assessed over the period of child/adolescent smoking acquisition (up to 12th grade): (1) transition from never smoking to trying smoking, (2) transition from trying to monthly smoking and (3) transition from monthly to daily smoking. Forty Washington State school districts participating in the long term Hutchinson Smoking Prevention Project (HSPP). Participants were the 5520 families for whom data on both parents' and older siblings' baseline smoking status, as well as on children's smoking transitions, were available. The probability that a smoking parent influenced their child to make the first transition to trying smoking was 32% (95% CI: 27%, 36%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 15% (95% CI: 10%, 19%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 28% (95% CI: 21%, 34%). The probability that an older sibling influenced a child to make the first transition to trying smoking was 29% (95% CI: 17%, 39%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 0% (95% CI: 0%, 8%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 20% (95% CI: 4%, 33%). In contrast to previous research, the results provide new evidence suggesting that family smoking influences both initiation and escalation of children's smoking. Results also quantify, in terms of probabilities, the importance of parents' and older siblings' smoking on children's three major smoking transitions. Parents' smoking, as well as older siblings' smoking, are important behaviors to target in preventing adolescents from making smoking transitions.

  13. Accurate dipole moment curve and non-adiabatic effects on the high resolution spectroscopic properties of the LiH molecule

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diniz, Leonardo G.; Kirnosov, Nikita; Alijah, Alexander; Mohallem, José R.; Adamowicz, Ludwik

    2016-04-01

    A very accurate dipole moment curve (DMC) for the ground X1Σ+ electronic state of the 7LiH molecule is reported. It is calculated with the use of all-particle explicitly correlated Gaussian functions with shifted centers. The DMC - the most accurate to our knowledge - and the corresponding highly accurate potential energy curve are used to calculate the transition energies, the transition dipole moments, and the Einstein coefficients for the rovibrational transitions with ΔJ = - 1 and Δv ⩽ 5 . The importance of the non-adiabatic effects in determining these properties is evaluated using the model of a vibrational R-dependent effective reduced mass in the rovibrational calculations introduced earlier (Diniz et al., 2015). The results of the present calculations are used to assess the quality of the two complete linelists of 7LiH available in the literature.

  14. Inverse modeling of hydraulic tests in fractured crystalline rock based on a transition probability geostatistical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blessent, Daniela; Therrien, René; Lemieux, Jean-Michel

    2011-12-01

    This paper presents numerical simulations of a series of hydraulic interference tests conducted in crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto (Finland), a potential site for the disposal of the Finnish high-level nuclear waste. The tests are in a block of crystalline bedrock of about 0.03 km3 that contains low-transmissivity fractures. Fracture density, orientation, and fracture transmissivity are estimated from Posiva Flow Log (PFL) measurements in boreholes drilled in the rock block. On the basis of those data, a geostatistical approach relying on a transitional probability and Markov chain models is used to define a conceptual model based on stochastic fractured rock facies. Four facies are defined, from sparsely fractured bedrock to highly fractured bedrock. Using this conceptual model, three-dimensional groundwater flow is then simulated to reproduce interference pumping tests in either open or packed-off boreholes. Hydraulic conductivities of the fracture facies are estimated through automatic calibration using either hydraulic heads or both hydraulic heads and PFL flow rates as targets for calibration. The latter option produces a narrower confidence interval for the calibrated hydraulic conductivities, therefore reducing the associated uncertainty and demonstrating the usefulness of the measured PFL flow rates. Furthermore, the stochastic facies conceptual model is a suitable alternative to discrete fracture network models to simulate fluid flow in fractured geological media.

  15. A Gaussian Model-Based Probabilistic Approach for Pulse Transit Time Estimation.

    PubMed

    Jang, Dae-Geun; Park, Seung-Hun; Hahn, Minsoo

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic approach to pulse transit time (PTT) estimation using a Gaussian distribution model. It is motivated basically by the hypothesis that PTTs normalized by RR intervals follow the Gaussian distribution. To verify the hypothesis, we demonstrate the effects of arterial compliance on the normalized PTTs using the Moens-Korteweg equation. Furthermore, we observe a Gaussian distribution of the normalized PTTs on real data. In order to estimate the PTT using the hypothesis, we first assumed that R-waves in the electrocardiogram (ECG) can be correctly identified. The R-waves limit searching ranges to detect pulse peaks in the photoplethysmogram (PPG) and to synchronize the results with cardiac beats--i.e., the peaks of the PPG are extracted within the corresponding RR interval of the ECG as pulse peak candidates. Their probabilities of being the actual pulse peak are then calculated using a Gaussian probability function. The parameters of the Gaussian function are automatically updated when a new pulse peak is identified. This update makes the probability function adaptive to variations of cardiac cycles. Finally, the pulse peak is identified as the candidate with the highest probability. The proposed approach is tested on a database where ECG and PPG waveforms are collected simultaneously during the submaximal bicycle ergometer exercise test. The results are promising, suggesting that the method provides a simple but more accurate PTT estimation in real applications.

  16. Radiative transition of hydrogen-like ions in quantum plasma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Hongwei; Chen, Zhanbin; Chen, Wencong

    2016-12-01

    At fusion plasma electron temperature and number density regimes of 1 × 103-1 × 107 K and 1 × 1028-1 × 1031/m3, respectively, the excited states and radiative transition of hydrogen-like ions in fusion plasmas are studied. The results show that quantum plasma model is more suitable to describe the fusion plasma than the Debye screening model. Relativistic correction to bound-state energies of the low-Z hydrogen-like ions is so small that it can be ignored. The transition probability decreases with plasma density, but the transition probabilities have the same order of magnitude in the same number density regime.

  17. Estimation of the four-wave mixing noise probability-density function by the multicanonical Monte Carlo method.

    PubMed

    Neokosmidis, Ioannis; Kamalakis, Thomas; Chipouras, Aristides; Sphicopoulos, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    The performance of high-powered wavelength-division multiplexed (WDM) optical networks can be severely degraded by four-wave-mixing- (FWM-) induced distortion. The multicanonical Monte Carlo method (MCMC) is used to calculate the probability-density function (PDF) of the decision variable of a receiver, limited by FWM noise. Compared with the conventional Monte Carlo method previously used to estimate this PDF, the MCMC method is much faster and can accurately estimate smaller error probabilities. The method takes into account the correlation between the components of the FWM noise, unlike the Gaussian model, which is shown not to provide accurate results.

  18. Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Noecker, Cecilia; Schaefer, Krista; Zaccheo, Kelly; Yang, Yiding; Day, Judy; Ganusov, Vitaly V.

    2015-01-01

    Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1–2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the “standard” mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV). First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting) has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral dose. These results

  19. Transition probabilities in neutron-rich Se,8280 and the role of the ν g9 /2 orbital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litzinger, J.; Blazhev, A.; Dewald, A.; Didierjean, F.; Duchêne, G.; Fransen, C.; Lozeva, R.; Verney, D.; de Angelis, G.; Bazzacco, D.; Birkenbach, B.; Bottoni, S.; Bracco, A.; Braunroth, T.; Cederwall, B.; Corradi, L.; Crespi, F. C. L.; Désesquelles, P.; Eberth, J.; Ellinger, E.; Farnea, E.; Fioretto, E.; Gernhäuser, R.; Goasduff, A.; Görgen, A.; Gottardo, A.; Grebosz, J.; Hackstein, M.; Hess, H.; Ibrahim, F.; Jolie, J.; Jungclaus, A.; Kolos, K.; Korten, W.; Leoni, S.; Lunardi, S.; Maj, A.; Menegazzo, R.; Mengoni, D.; Michelagnoli, C.; Mijatovic, T.; Million, B.; Möller, O.; Modamio, V.; Montagnoli, G.; Montanari, D.; Morales, A. I.; Napoli, D. R.; Niikura, M.; Pietralla, N.; Pollarolo, G.; Pullia, A.; Quintana, B.; Recchia, F.; Reiter, P.; Rosso, D.; Sahin, E.; Salsac, M. D.; Scarlassara, F.; Söderström, P.-A.; Stefanini, A. M.; Stezowski, O.; Szilner, S.; Theisen, Ch.; Valiente-Dobón, J. J.; Vandone, V.; Vogt, A.

    2018-04-01

    Transition probabilities of intermediate-spin yrast and non-yrast excitations in Se,8280 were investigated in a recoil distance Doppler-shift (RDDS) experiment performed at the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro. The Cologne Plunger device for deep inelastic scattering was used for the RDDS technique and was combined with the AGATA Demonstrator array for the γ -ray detection and coupled to the PRISMA magnetic spectrometer for an event-by-event particle identification. In 80Se, the level lifetimes of the yrast (61+) and (81+) states and of a non-yrast band feeding the yrast 41+ state are determined. A spin and parity assignment of the head of this sideband is discussed based on the experimental results and supported by large-scale shell-model calculations. In 82Se, the level lifetimes of the yrast 61+ state and the yrare 42+ state and lifetime limits of the yrast (101+) state and of the 51- state are determined. Although the experimental results contain large uncertainties, they are interpreted with care in terms of large-scale shell-model calculations using the effective interactions JUN45 and jj44b. The excited states' wave functions are investigated and discussed with respect to the role of the neutron g9 /2 orbital.

  20. Excitation rate coefficients and line ratios for the optical and ultraviolet transitions in S II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cai, Wei; Pradhan, Anil K.

    1993-01-01

    New calculations are reported for electron excitation collision strengths, rate coefficients, transition probabilities, and line ratios for the astrophysically important optical and UV lines in S II. The collision strengths are calculated in the close coupling approximation using the R-matrix method. The present calculations are more extensive than previous ones, including all transitions among the 12 lowest LS terms and the corresponding 28 fine-structure levels in the collisional-radiative model for S II. While the present rate coefficients for electron impact excitation are within 10-30 percent of the previous values for the low-lying optical transitions employed as density diagnostics of H II regions and nebulae, the excitation rates for the UV transitions 4S super 0 sub 3/2 - 4Psub 1/2,3/2,5/2 differ significantly from earlier calculations, by up to factor of 2. We describe temperature and density sensitive flux ratios for a number of UV lines. The present UV results are likely to be of interest in a more accurate interpretation of S II emission from the Io plasma torus in the magnetosphere of Jupiter, as well as other UV sources observed from the IUE, ASTRO 1, and the HST.

  1. Transit visibility zones of the Solar system planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wells, R.; Poppenhaeger, K.; Watson, C. A.; Heller, R.

    2018-01-01

    The detection of thousands of extrasolar planets by the transit method naturally raises the question of whether potential extrasolar observers could detect the transits of the Solar system planets. We present a comprehensive analysis of the regions in the sky from where transit events of the Solar system planets can be detected. We specify how many different Solar system planets can be observed from any given point in the sky, and find the maximum number to be three. We report the probabilities of a randomly positioned external observer to be able to observe single and multiple Solar system planet transits; specifically, we find a probability of 2.518 per cent to be able to observe at least one transiting planet, 0.229 per cent for at least two transiting planets, and 0.027 per cent for three transiting planets. We identify 68 known exoplanets that have a favourable geometric perspective to allow transit detections in the Solar system and we show how the ongoing K2 mission will extend this list. We use occurrence rates of exoplanets to estimate that there are 3.2 ± 1.2 and 6.6^{+1.3}_{-0.8} temperate Earth-sized planets orbiting GK and M dwarf stars brighter than V = 13 and 16, respectively, that are located in the Earth's transit zone.

  2. New Accurate Oscillator Strengths and Electron Excitation Collision Strengths for N1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tayal, S. S.

    2006-01-01

    The nonorthogonal orbitals technique in a multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock approach is used to calculate oscillator strengths and transition probabilities of N(I) lines. The relativistic effects are allowed by means of Breit-Pauli operators. The length and velocity forms of oscillator strengths show good agreement for most transitions. The B-spline R-matrix with pseudostates approach has been used to calculate electron excitation collision strengths and rates. The nonorthogonal orbitals are used for an accurate description of both target wave functions and the R-matrix basis functions. The 24 spectroscopic bound and autoionizing states together with 15 pseudostates are included in the close-coupling expansion. The collision strengths for transitions between fine-structure levels are calculated by transforming the LS-coupled K-matrices to K-matrices in an intermediate coupling scheme. Thermally averaged collision strengths have been determined by integrating collision strength over a Maxwellian distribution of electron energies over a temperature range suitable for the modeling of astrophysical plasmas. The oscillator strengths and thermally averaged collision strengths are presented for transitions between the fine-structure levels of the 2s(sup 2)p(sup 3) (sup 4)S(sup 0), (sup 2)D(sup 0), (sup 2)P(sup 0), 2s2p(sup 4) (sup 4)P, 2s(sup 2)2p(sup 2)3s (sup 4)P, and (sup 2)P terms and from these levels to the levels of the 2s(sup 2)2p(sup 2)3p (sup 2)S(sup 0), (sup 4)D(sup 0), (sup 4)P(sup 0), (sup 4)S(sup 0), (sup 2)D(sup 0), (sup 2)P(sup 0),2s(sup 2)2p(sup 2)3s(sup 2)D, 2s(sup 2)2p(sup 2)4s(sup 4)P, (sup 2)P, 2s(sup 2)2p(sup 2)3d(sup 2)P, (sup 4)F,(sup 2)F,(sup 4)P, (sup 4)D, and (sup 2)D terms. Thermally averaged collision strengths are tabulated over a temperature range from 500 to 50,000 K.

  3. Radiative one- and two-electron transitions into the empty K shell of He-like ions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kadrekar, Riddhi; Natarajan, L.

    2011-12-15

    The branching ratios between the single and double electron radiative transitions to empty K shell in He-like ions with 2s2p configuration are evaluated for 15 ions with 4{<=}Z{<=}26 using fully relativistic multiconfiguration Dirac-Fock wavefunctions in the active space approximation. The effects of configuration interaction and Breit contributions on the transition parameters have been analyzed in detail. Though the influence of Breit interaction on the electric dipole allowed one-electron radiative transitions is negligible, it substantially changes the spin-forbidden rates and the two-electron one-photon transition probabilities. Also, while the single electron transition rates are gauge independent, the correlated double-electron probabilities are foundmore » to be gauge sensitive. The probable uncertainties in the computed transition rates have been evaluated by considering the line strengths and the differences between the calculated and experimental transition energies as accuracy indicators. The present results are compared with other available experimental and theoretical data.« less

  4. Exact numerical calculation of fixation probability and time on graphs.

    PubMed

    Hindersin, Laura; Möller, Marius; Traulsen, Arne; Bauer, Benedikt

    2016-12-01

    The Moran process on graphs is a popular model to study the dynamics of evolution in a spatially structured population. Exact analytical solutions for the fixation probability and time of a new mutant have been found for only a few classes of graphs so far. Simulations are time-expensive and many realizations are necessary, as the variance of the fixation times is high. We present an algorithm that numerically computes these quantities for arbitrary small graphs by an approach based on the transition matrix. The advantage over simulations is that the calculation has to be executed only once. Building the transition matrix is automated by our algorithm. This enables a fast and interactive study of different graph structures and their effect on fixation probability and time. We provide a fast implementation in C with this note (Hindersin et al., 2016). Our code is very flexible, as it can handle two different update mechanisms (Birth-death or death-Birth), as well as arbitrary directed or undirected graphs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Quantum transitions through cosmological singularities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bramberger, Sebastian F.; Hertog, Thomas; Lehners, Jean-Luc; Vreys, Yannick

    2017-07-01

    In a quantum theory of cosmology spacetime behaves classically only in limited patches of the configuration space on which the wave function of the universe is defined. Quantum transitions can connect classical evolution in different patches. Working in the saddle point approximation and in minisuperspace we compute quantum transitions connecting inflationary histories across a de Sitter like throat or a singularity. This supplies probabilities for how an inflating universe, when evolved backwards, transitions and branches into an ensemble of histories on the opposite side of a quantum bounce. Generalising our analysis to scalar potentials with negative regions we identify saddle points describing a quantum transition between a classically contracting, crunching ekpyrotic phase and an inflationary universe.

  6. Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

    2018-01-01

    Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

  7. Middle Grades Transition Programs around the Globe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrews, Colin; Bishop, Penny

    2012-01-01

    Transitions into and out of the middle grades can be challenging for many reasons. Students need to acclimate to new policies, practices, and buildings; teachers require accurate data about their new students' capacities; and families must navigate relationships with new personnel. All school transitions present different and, at times, puzzling…

  8. Wetting transition on patterned surfaces: transition states and energy barriers.

    PubMed

    Ren, Weiqing

    2014-03-18

    We study the wetting transition on microstructured hydrophobic surfaces. We use the string method [J. Chem. Phys. 2007, 126, 164103; J. Chem. Phys. 2013, 138, 134105] to accurately compute the transition states, the energy barriers, and the minimum energy paths for the wetting transition from the Cassie-Baxter state to the Wenzel state. Numerical results are obtained for the wetting of a hydrophobic surface textured with a square lattice of pillars. It is found that the wetting of the solid substrate occurs via infiltration of the liquid in a single groove, followed by lateral propagation of the liquid front. The propagation of the liquid front proceeds in a stepwise manner, and a zipping mechanism is observed during the infiltration of each layer. The minimum energy path for the wetting transition goes through a sequence of intermediate metastable states, whose wetted areas reflect the microstructure of the patterned surface. We also study the dependence of the energy barrier on the drop size and the gap between the pillars.

  9. Fourth-Order Vibrational Transition State Theory and Chemical Kinetics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanton, John F.; Matthews, Devin A.; Gong, Justin Z.

    2015-06-01

    Second-order vibrational perturbation theory (VPT2) is an enormously successful and well-established theory for treating anharmonic effects on the vibrational levels of semi-rigid molecules. Partially as a consequence of the fact that the theory is exact for the Morse potential (which provides an appropriate qualitative model for stretching anharmonicity), VPT2 calculations for such systems with appropriate ab initio potential functions tend to give fundamental and overtone levels that fall within a handful of wavenumbers of experimentally measured positions. As a consequence, the next non-vanishing level of perturbation theory -- VPT4 -- offers only slight improvements over VPT2 and is not practical for most calculations since it requires information about force constants up through sextic. However, VPT4 (as well as VPT2) can be used for other applications such as the next vibrational correction to rotational constants (the ``gammas'') and other spectroscopic parameters. In addition, the marriage of VPT with the semi-classical transition state theory of Miller (SCTST) has recently proven to be a powerful and accurate treatment for chemical kinetics. In this talk, VPT4-based SCTST tunneling probabilities and cumulative reaction probabilities are give for the first time for selected low-dimensional model systems. The prospects for VPT4, both practical and intrinsic, will also be discussed.

  10. Non-Parametric Collision Probability for Low-Velocity Encounters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carpenter, J. Russell

    2007-01-01

    An implicit, but not necessarily obvious, assumption in all of the current techniques for assessing satellite collision probability is that the relative position uncertainty is perfectly correlated in time. If there is any mis-modeling of the dynamics in the propagation of the relative position error covariance matrix, time-wise de-correlation of the uncertainty will increase the probability of collision over a given time interval. The paper gives some examples that illustrate this point. This paper argues that, for the present, Monte Carlo analysis is the best available tool for handling low-velocity encounters, and suggests some techniques for addressing the issues just described. One proposal is for the use of a non-parametric technique that is widely used in actuarial and medical studies. The other suggestion is that accurate process noise models be used in the Monte Carlo trials to which the non-parametric estimate is applied. A further contribution of this paper is a description of how the time-wise decorrelation of uncertainty increases the probability of collision.

  11. Theory of rotational transition in atom-diatom chemical reaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Masato; Nakamura, Hiroki

    1989-05-01

    Rotational transition in atom-diatom chemical reaction is theoretically studied. A new approximate theory (which we call IOS-DW approximation) is proposed on the basis of the physical idea that rotational transition in reaction is induced by the following two different mechanisms: rotationally inelastic half collision in both initial and final arrangement channels, and coordinate transformation in the reaction zone. This theory gives a fairy compact expression for the state-to-state transition probability. Introducing the additional physically reasonable assumption that reaction (particle rearrangement) takes place in a spatially localized region, we have reduced this expression into a simpler analytical form which can explicitly give overall rotational state distribution in reaction. Numerical application was made to the H+H2 reaction and demonstrated its effectiveness for the simplicity. A further simplified most naive approximation, i.e., independent events approximation was also proposed and demonstrated to work well in the test calculation of H+H2. The overall rotational state distribution is expressed simply by a product sum of the transition probabilities for the three consecutive processes in reaction: inelastic transition in the initial half collision, transition due to particle rearrangement, and inelastic transition in the final half collision.

  12. The General Necessary Condition for the Validity of Dirac's Transition Perturbation Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quang, Nguyen Vinh

    1996-01-01

    For the first time, from the natural requirements for the successive approximation the general necessary condition of validity of the Dirac's method is explicitly established. It is proved that the conception of 'the transition probability per unit time' is not valid. The 'super-platinium rules' for calculating the transition probability are derived for the arbitrarily strong time-independent perturbation case.

  13. Fixation of strategies driven by switching probabilities in evolutionary games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Zimin; Zhang, Jianlei; Zhang, Chunyan; Chen, Zengqiang

    2016-12-01

    We study the evolutionary dynamics of strategies in finite populations which are homogeneous and well mixed by means of the pairwise comparison process, the core of which is the proposed switching probability. Previous studies about this subject are usually based on the known payoff comparison of the related players, which is an ideal assumption. In real social systems, acquiring the accurate payoffs of partners at each round of interaction may be not easy. So we bypass the need of explicit knowledge of payoffs, and encode the payoffs into the willingness of any individual shift from her current strategy to the competing one, and the switching probabilities are wholly independent of payoffs. Along this way, the strategy updating can be performed when game models are fixed and payoffs are unclear, expected to extend ideal assumptions to be more realistic one. We explore the impact of the switching probability on the fixation probability and derive a simple formula which determines the fixation probability. Moreover we find that cooperation dominates defection if the probability of cooperation replacing defection is always larger than the probability of defection replacing cooperation in finite populations. Last, we investigate the influences of model parameters on the fixation of strategies in the framework of three concrete game models: prisoner's dilemma, snowdrift game and stag-hunt game, which effectively portray the characteristics of cooperative dilemmas in real social systems.

  14. Dynamical quantum phase transitions in discrete time crystals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosior, Arkadiusz; Sacha, Krzysztof

    2018-05-01

    Discrete time crystals are related to nonequilibrium dynamics of periodically driven quantum many-body systems where the discrete time-translation symmetry of the Hamiltonian is spontaneously broken into another discrete symmetry. Recently, the concept of phase transitions has been extended to nonequilibrium dynamics of time-independent systems induced by a quantum quench, i.e., a sudden change of some parameter of the Hamiltonian. There, the return probability of a system to the ground state reveals singularities in time which are dubbed dynamical quantum phase transitions. We show that the quantum quench in a discrete time crystal leads to dynamical quantum phase transitions where the return probability of a periodically driven system to a Floquet eigenstate before the quench reveals singularities in time. It indicates that dynamical quantum phase transitions are not restricted to time-independent systems and can be also observed in systems that are periodically driven. We discuss how the phenomenon can be observed in ultracold atomic gases.

  15. Dipole moments and transition probabilities of the i 3Pi sub g-b 3Sigma(+) sub u, c 3Pi sub u-a 3Sigma(+) sub g, and i 3Pi sub g-c 3Pi sub u systems of molecular hydrogen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guberman, Steven L.; Dalgarno, A.

    1992-01-01

    Bonn-Oppenheimer-based ab initio calculations of dipole moments from the i 3Pi sub g-b 3Sigma(+) sub u, c 3Pi sub u-a 3Sigma(+) sub g, and i 3Pi sub g-c 3Pi sub u transitions of H2 have been conducted, to yield a tabulation of the dipole transition probabilities and Franck-Condon factors. These factors are given for transitions originating in the lowest vibrational level of the ground X 1Sigma(+) sub g state.

  16. Local neighborhood transition probability estimation and its use in contextual classification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chittineni, C. B.

    1979-01-01

    The problem of incorporating spatial or contextual information into classifications is considered. A simple model that describes the spatial dependencies between the neighboring pixels with a single parameter, Theta, is presented. Expressions are derived for updating the posteriori probabilities of the states of nature of the pattern under consideration using information from the neighboring patterns, both for spatially uniform context and for Markov dependencies in terms of Theta. Techniques for obtaining the optimal value of the parameter Theta as a maximum likelihood estimate from the local neighborhood of the pattern under consideration are developed.

  17. Quantum transitions through cosmological singularities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bramberger, Sebastian F.; Lehners, Jean-Luc; Hertog, Thomas

    2017-07-01

    In a quantum theory of cosmology spacetime behaves classically only in limited patches of the configuration space on which the wave function of the universe is defined. Quantum transitions can connect classical evolution in different patches. Working in the saddle point approximation and in minisuperspace we compute quantum transitions connecting inflationary histories across a de Sitter like throat or a singularity. This supplies probabilities for how an inflating universe, when evolved backwards, transitions and branches into an ensemble of histories on the opposite side of a quantum bounce. Generalising our analysis to scalar potentials with negative regions we identify saddlemore » points describing a quantum transition between a classically contracting, crunching ekpyrotic phase and an inflationary universe.« less

  18. Measurement of K to L shell vacancy transfer probabilities for the elements 46≤ Z≤55 by photoionization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Şimşek, Ö.; Karagöz, D.; Ertugrul, M.

    2003-10-01

    The K to L shell vacancy transfer probabilities for nine elements in the atomic region 46≤ Z≤55 were determined by measuring the L X-ray yields from targets excited by 5.96 and 59.5 keV photons and using the theoretical K and L shell photoionization cross-sections. The L X-rays from different targets were detected with an Ultra-LEGe detector with very thin polymer window. Present experimental results were compared with the semi empirical values tabulated by Rao et al. [Atomic vacancy distributions product by inner shellionization, Phys. Rev. A 5 (1972) 997-1002] and theoretically calculated values using radiative and radiationless transitions. The radiative transitions of these elements were observed from the relativistic Hartree-Slater model, which was proposed by Scofield [Relativistic Hartree-Slater values for K and L shell X-ray emission rates, At. Data Nucl. Data Tables 14 (1974) 121-137]. The radiationless transitions were observed from the Dirac-Hartree-Slater model, which was proposed by Chen et al. [Relativistic radiationless transition probabilities for atomic K- and L-shells, At. Data Nucl. Data Tables 24 (1979) 13-37]. To the best of our knowledge, these vacancy transfer probabilities are reported for the first time.

  19. a Probability-Based Statistical Method to Extract Water Body of TM Images with Missing Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lian, Shizhong; Chen, Jiangping; Luo, Minghai

    2016-06-01

    Water information cannot be accurately extracted using TM images because true information is lost in some images because of blocking clouds and missing data stripes, thereby water information cannot be accurately extracted. Water is continuously distributed in natural conditions; thus, this paper proposed a new method of water body extraction based on probability statistics to improve the accuracy of water information extraction of TM images with missing information. Different disturbing information of clouds and missing data stripes are simulated. Water information is extracted using global histogram matching, local histogram matching, and the probability-based statistical method in the simulated images. Experiments show that smaller Areal Error and higher Boundary Recall can be obtained using this method compared with the conventional methods.

  20. Non-linear education gradient across the nutrition transition: mothers' overweight and the population education transition.

    PubMed

    Jeon, Haram; Salinas, Daniel; Baker, David P

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies found that developed and developing countries present opposite education-overweight gradients but have not considered the dynamics at different levels of national development. An inverted U-shaped curve is hypothesized to best describe the education-overweight association. It is also hypothesized that as the nutrition transition unfolds within nations the shape of education-overweight curve changes. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate the moderating effect of the nutrition transition at the population level on the education-overweight gradient. At the individual level, a non-linear estimate of the education association was used to assess the optimal functional form of the association across the nutrition transition. Twenty-two administrations of the Demographic and Health Survey, collected at different time points across the nutrition transition in nine Latin American/Caribbean countries. Mothers of reproductive age (15-49 years) in each administration (n 143 258). In the pooled sample, a non-linear education gradient on mothers' overweight was found; each additional year of schooling increases the probability of being overweight up to the end of primary schooling, after which each additional year of schooling decreases the probability of overweight. Also, as access to diets high in animal fats and sweeteners increases over time, the curve's critical point moves to lower education levels, the detrimental positive effect of education diminishes, and both occur as the overall risk of overweight increases with greater access to harmful diets. Both hypotheses were supported. As the nutrition transition progresses, the education-overweight curve shifts steadily to a negative linear association with a higher average risk of overweight; and education, at increasingly lower levels, acts as a 'social vaccine' against increasing risk of overweight. These empirical patterns fit the general 'population education transition' curve hypothesis

  1. Cultural Differences in Young Adults' Perceptions of the Probability of Future Family Life Events.

    PubMed

    Speirs, Calandra; Huang, Vivian; Konnert, Candace

    2017-09-01

    Most young adults are exposed to family caregiving; however, little is known about their perceptions of their future caregiving activities such as the probability of becoming a caregiver for their parents or providing assistance in relocating to a nursing home. This study examined the perceived probability of these events among 182 young adults and the following predictors of their probability ratings: gender, ethnicity, work or volunteer experience, experiences with caregiving and nursing homes, expectations about these transitions, and filial piety. Results indicated that Asian or South Asian participants rated the probability of being a caregiver as significantly higher than Caucasian participants, and the probability of placing a parent in a nursing home as significantly lower. Filial piety was the strongest predictor of the probability of these life events, and it mediated the relationship between ethnicity and probability ratings. These findings indicate the significant role of filial piety in shaping perceptions of future life events.

  2. Use of Mental Health Services in Transition Age Youth with Bipolar Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Hower, Heather; Case, Brady G.; Hoeppner, Bettina; Yen, Shirley; Goldstein, Tina; Goldstein, Benjamin; Birmaher, Boris; Weinstock, Lauren; Topor, David; Hunt, Jeffrey; Strober, Michael; Ryan, Neal; Axelson, David; Gill, Mary Kay; Keller, Martin B.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives There is concern that treatment of serious mental illness in the United States declines precipitously following legal emancipation at age 18 years and transition from specialty youth clinical settings. We examined age transition effects on treatment utilization in a sample of youth with bipolar disorder. Methods Youth with bipolar disorder (N = 413) 7–18 years of age were assessed approximately twice per year (mean interval 8.2 months) for at least 4 years. Annual use of any individual, group, and family therapy, psychopharmacology visits, and hospitalization at each year of age, and monthly use from ages 17 through 19 years, were examined. The effect of age transition to 18 years on monthly visit probability was tested in the subsample with observed transitions (n = 204). Putative sociodemographic moderators and the influence of clinical course were assessed. Results Visit probabilities for the most common modalities—psychopharmacology, individual psychotherapy, and home-based care— generally fell from childhood to young adulthood. For example, the annual probability of at least one psychopharmacology visit was 97% at age 8, 75% at age 17, 60% at age 19, and 46% by age 22. Treatment probabilities fell in transition-age youth from age 17 through 19, but a specific transition effect at age 18 was not found. Declines did not vary based on sociodemographic characteristics and were not explained by changing severity of the bipolar illness or functioning. Conclusions Mental health treatment declined with age in this sample of youth with bipolar disorder, but reductions were not concentrated during or after the transition to age 18 years. Declines were unrelated to symptom severity or impairment. PMID:24241500

  3. A photometric search for transiting planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baliber, Nairn Reese

    In the decade since the discovery of the first planet orbiting a main-sequence star other than the Sun, more than 160 planets have been detected in orbit around other stars, most of them discovered by measuring the velocity of the reflexive motion of their parent stars caused by the gravitational pull of the planets. These discoveries produced a population of planets much different to the ones in our Solar System and created interest in other methods to detect these planets. One such method is searching for transits, the slight photometric dimming of stars caused by a close-orbiting, Jupiter-sized planet passing between a star and our line of sight once per orbit. We report results from TeMPEST, the Texas, McDonald Photometric Extrasolar Search for Transits, a transit survey conducted with the McDonald Observatory 0.76 m Prime Focus Corrector (PFC). We monitored five fields of stars in the plane of the Milky Way over the course of two and a half years. We created a photometry pipeline to perform high-precision differential photometry on all of the images, and used a software detection algorithm to detect transit signals in the light curves. Although no transits were found, we calculated our detection probability by determining the fraction of the stars monitored by TeMPEST which were suitable to show transits, measuring the probability of detecting transit signals based on the temporal coverage of our fields, and measuring our detection efficiency by inserting false transits into TeMPEST data to see what fraction could be recovered by our automatic detection software. We conclude that in our entire data set, we generated an effective sample of 2660 stars, a sample in which if any star is showing a transit, it would have been detected. We found no convincing transits in our data, but current statistics from radial velocity surveys indicate that only one in about 1300 of these stars should be showing transits. These numbers are consistent with the lack of transits

  4. Geomagnetic polarity transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merrill, Ronald T.; McFadden, Phillip L.

    1999-05-01

    reasonable to draw the following conclusions with varying degrees of confidence. There appears to be a substantial decrease in the mean intensity of the dipole field during a transition to ˜25% of its usual value. The duration of an average geomagnetic polarity transition is not well known but probably lies between 1000 and 8000 years. Values outside these bounds have been reported, but we give reasons as to why such outliers are likely to be artifacts. The reversal process is probably longer than the manifestation of the reversal at Earth's surface as recorded in paleomagnetic directional data. Convection hiatus during a geomagnetic polarity transition seems unlikely, and free-decay models for reversals appear to be generally incompatible with the data. This implies that certain theorems in dynamo theory, such as Cowling's theorem, should not be invoked to explain the origin of reversals. Unfortunately, the detailed description of directional changes during transitions remains controversial. Contrary to common belief, certain low-degree nondipole fields can produce significant longitudinal confinement of virtual geomagnetic poles (VGP) during a transition. The data are currently inadequate to refute or verify claims of longitudinal dipole confinement, VGP clustering, or other systematics during polarity transitions.

  5. Universal phase transition in community detectability under a stochastic block model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Pin-Yu; Hero, Alfred O

    2015-03-01

    We prove the existence of an asymptotic phase-transition threshold on community detectability for the spectral modularity method [M. E. J. Newman, Phys. Rev. E 74, 036104 (2006) and Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. (USA) 103, 8577 (2006)] under a stochastic block model. The phase transition on community detectability occurs as the intercommunity edge connection probability p grows. This phase transition separates a subcritical regime of small p, where modularity-based community detection successfully identifies the communities, from a supercritical regime of large p where successful community detection is impossible. We show that, as the community sizes become large, the asymptotic phase-transition threshold p* is equal to √[p1p2], where pi(i=1,2) is the within-community edge connection probability. Thus the phase-transition threshold is universal in the sense that it does not depend on the ratio of community sizes. The universal phase-transition phenomenon is validated by simulations for moderately sized communities. Using the derived expression for the phase-transition threshold, we propose an empirical method for estimating this threshold from real-world data.

  6. Computation of rare transitions in the barotropic quasi-geostrophic equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laurie, Jason; Bouchet, Freddy

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the theoretical and numerical computation of rare transitions in simple geophysical turbulent models. We consider the barotropic quasi-geostrophic and two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in regimes where bistability between two coexisting large-scale attractors exist. By means of large deviations and instanton theory with the use of an Onsager-Machlup path integral formalism for the transition probability, we show how one can directly compute the most probable transition path between two coexisting attractors analytically in an equilibrium (Langevin) framework and numerically otherwise. We adapt a class of numerical optimization algorithms known as minimum action methods to simple geophysical turbulent models. We show that by numerically minimizing an appropriate action functional in a large deviation limit, one can predict the most likely transition path for a rare transition between two states. By considering examples where theoretical predictions can be made, we show that the minimum action method successfully predicts the most likely transition path. Finally, we discuss the application and extension of such numerical optimization schemes to the computation of rare transitions observed in direct numerical simulations and experiments and to other, more complex, turbulent systems.

  7. Slider--maximum use of probability information for alignment of short sequence reads and SNP detection.

    PubMed

    Malhis, Nawar; Butterfield, Yaron S N; Ester, Martin; Jones, Steven J M

    2009-01-01

    A plethora of alignment tools have been created that are designed to best fit different types of alignment conditions. While some of these are made for aligning Illumina Sequence Analyzer reads, none of these are fully utilizing its probability (prb) output. In this article, we will introduce a new alignment approach (Slider) that reduces the alignment problem space by utilizing each read base's probabilities given in the prb files. Compared with other aligners, Slider has higher alignment accuracy and efficiency. In addition, given that Slider matches bases with probabilities other than the most probable, it significantly reduces the percentage of base mismatches. The result is that its SNP predictions are more accurate than other SNP prediction approaches used today that start from the most probable sequence, including those using base quality.

  8. Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

  9. Rotational frequencies of transition metal hydrides for astrophysical searches in the far-infrared

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, John M.; Beaton, Stuart P.; Evenson, Kenneth M.

    1993-01-01

    Accurate frequencies for the lowest rotational transitions of five transition metal hydrides (CrH, FeH, CoH, NiH, and CuH) in their ground electronic states are reported to help the identification of these species in astrophysical sources from their far-infrared spectra. Accurate frequencies are determined in two ways: for CuH, by calculation from rotational constants determined from higher J transitions with an accuracy of 190 kHz; for the other species, by extrapolation to zero magnetic field from laser magnetic resonance spectra with an accuracy of 0.7 MHz.

  10. Probabilistic techniques for obtaining accurate patient counts in Clinical Data Warehouses

    PubMed Central

    Myers, Risa B.; Herskovic, Jorge R.

    2011-01-01

    Proposal and execution of clinical trials, computation of quality measures and discovery of correlation between medical phenomena are all applications where an accurate count of patients is needed. However, existing sources of this type of patient information, including Clinical Data Warehouses (CDW) may be incomplete or inaccurate. This research explores applying probabilistic techniques, supported by the MayBMS probabilistic database, to obtain accurate patient counts from a clinical data warehouse containing synthetic patient data. We present a synthetic clinical data warehouse (CDW), and populate it with simulated data using a custom patient data generation engine. We then implement, evaluate and compare different techniques for obtaining patients counts. We model billing as a test for the presence of a condition. We compute billing’s sensitivity and specificity both by conducting a “Simulated Expert Review” where a representative sample of records are reviewed and labeled by experts, and by obtaining the ground truth for every record. We compute the posterior probability of a patient having a condition through a “Bayesian Chain”, using Bayes’ Theorem to calculate the probability of a patient having a condition after each visit. The second method is a “one-shot” approach that computes the probability of a patient having a condition based on whether the patient is ever billed for the condition Our results demonstrate the utility of probabilistic approaches, which improve on the accuracy of raw counts. In particular, the simulated review paired with a single application of Bayes’ Theorem produces the best results, with an average error rate of 2.1% compared to 43.7% for the straightforward billing counts. Overall, this research demonstrates that Bayesian probabilistic approaches improve patient counts on simulated patient populations. We believe that total patient counts based on billing data are one of the many possible applications of our

  11. False Positive Probabilities for all Kepler Objects of Interest: 1284 Newly Validated Planets and 428 Likely False Positives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morton, Timothy D.; Bryson, Stephen T.; Coughlin, Jeffrey L.; Rowe, Jason F.; Ravichandran, Ganesh; Petigura, Erik A.; Haas, Michael R.; Batalha, Natalie M.

    2016-05-01

    We present astrophysical false positive probability calculations for every Kepler Object of Interest (KOI)—the first large-scale demonstration of a fully automated transiting planet validation procedure. Out of 7056 KOIs, we determine that 1935 have probabilities <1% of being astrophysical false positives, and thus may be considered validated planets. Of these, 1284 have not yet been validated or confirmed by other methods. In addition, we identify 428 KOIs that are likely to be false positives, but have not yet been identified as such, though some of these may be a result of unidentified transit timing variations. A side product of these calculations is full stellar property posterior samplings for every host star, modeled as single, binary, and triple systems. These calculations use vespa, a publicly available Python package that is able to be easily applied to any transiting exoplanet candidate.

  12. Non-linear education gradient across the nutrition transition: mothers’ overweight and the population education transition

    PubMed Central

    Salinas, Daniel; Baker, David P

    2015-01-01

    Objective Previous studies found that developed and developing countries present opposite education-overweight gradients but have not considered the dynamics at different levels of national development. A U-inverted curve is hypothesized to best describe the education-overweight association. It is also hypothesized that as the nutrition transition unfolds within nations the shape of education-overweight curve change. Design Multi-level logistic regression estimates the moderating effect of the nutrition transition at the population level on education-overweight gradient. At the individual level, a non-linear estimate of the education association assesses the optimal functional form of the association across the nutrition transition. Setting Twenty-two administrations of the Demographic and Health Survey, collected at different time points across the nutrition transition in nine Latin American/Caribbean countries. Subjects Mothers of reproductive age (15–49) in each administration (n 143,258). Results In the pooled sample, a non-linear education gradient on mothers‘ overweight is found; each additional year of schooling increases the probability of being overweight up to the end of primary schooling, after which each additional year of schooling decreases the probability of overweight. Also, as access to diets of high animal fats and sweeteners increases over time, the curve‘s critical point moves to lower education levels, the detrimental positive effect of education diminishes, and both occur as the overall risk of overweight increases with greater access to harmful diets. Conclusions Both hypotheses are supported. As the nutrition transition progresses, the education-overweight curve steadily shifts to a negative linear association with higher average risk of overweight; and education, at increasingly lower levels, acts as a “social vaccine” against increasing risk of overweight. These empirical patterns fit the general “population education

  13. Population variability complicates the accurate detection of climate change responses.

    PubMed

    McCain, Christy; Szewczyk, Tim; Bracy Knight, Kevin

    2016-06-01

    The rush to assess species' responses to anthropogenic climate change (CC) has underestimated the importance of interannual population variability (PV). Researchers assume sampling rigor alone will lead to an accurate detection of response regardless of the underlying population fluctuations of the species under consideration. Using population simulations across a realistic, empirically based gradient in PV, we show that moderate to high PV can lead to opposite and biased conclusions about CC responses. Between pre- and post-CC sampling bouts of modeled populations as in resurvey studies, there is: (i) A 50% probability of erroneously detecting the opposite trend in population abundance change and nearly zero probability of detecting no change. (ii) Across multiple years of sampling, it is nearly impossible to accurately detect any directional shift in population sizes with even moderate PV. (iii) There is up to 50% probability of detecting a population extirpation when the species is present, but in very low natural abundances. (iv) Under scenarios of moderate to high PV across a species' range or at the range edges, there is a bias toward erroneous detection of range shifts or contractions. Essentially, the frequency and magnitude of population peaks and troughs greatly impact the accuracy of our CC response measurements. Species with moderate to high PV (many small vertebrates, invertebrates, and annual plants) may be inaccurate 'canaries in the coal mine' for CC without pertinent demographic analyses and additional repeat sampling. Variation in PV may explain some idiosyncrasies in CC responses detected so far and urgently needs more careful consideration in design and analysis of CC responses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. From continuous to discontinuous transitions in social diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuzón, Paula; Fernández-Gracia, Juan; Eguíluz, Víctor M.

    2018-03-01

    Models of social diffusion reflect processes of how new products, ideas or behaviors are adopted in a population. These models typically lead to a continuous or a discontinuous phase transition of the number of adopters as a function of a control parameter. We explore a simple model of social adoption where the agents can be in two states, either adopters or non-adopters, and can switch between these two states interacting with other agents through a network. The probability of an agent to switch from non-adopter to adopter depends on the number of adopters in her network neighborhood, the adoption threshold T and the adoption coefficient a, two parameters defining a Hill function. In contrast the transition from adopter to non-adopter is spontaneous at a certain rate μ. In a mean-field approach, we derive the governing ordinary differential equations and show that the nature of the transition between the global non-adoption and global adoption regimes depends mostly on the balance between the probability to adopt with one and two adopters. The transition changes from continuous, via a transcritical bifurcation, to discontinuous, via a combination of a saddle-node and a transcritical bifurcation, through a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation. We characterize the full parameter space. Finally, we compare our analytical results with Montecarlo simulations on annealed and quenched degree regular networks, showing a better agreement for the annealed case. Our results show how a simple model is able to capture two seemingly very different types of transitions, i.e., continuous and discontinuous and thus unifies underlying dynamics for different systems. Furthermore the form of the adoption probability used here is based on empirical measurements.

  15. Spatial probability of soil water repellency in an abandoned agricultural field in Lithuania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Misiūnė, Ieva

    2015-04-01

    Water repellency is a natural soil property with implications on infiltration, erosion and plant growth. It depends on soil texture, type and amount of organic matter, fungi, microorganisms, and vegetation cover (Doerr et al., 2000). Human activities as agriculture can have implications on soil water repellency (SWR) due tillage and addition of organic compounds and fertilizers (Blanco-Canqui and Lal, 2009; Gonzalez-Penaloza et al., 2012). It is also assumed that SWR has a high small-scale variability (Doerr et al., 2000). The aim of this work is to study the spatial probability of SWR in an abandoned field testing several geostatistical methods, Organic Kriging (OK), Simple Kriging (SK), Indicator Kriging (IK), Probability Kriging (PK) and Disjunctive Kriging (DK). The study area it is located near Vilnius urban area at (54 49' N, 25 22', 104 masl) in Lithuania (Pereira and Oliva, 2013). It was designed a experimental plot with 21 m2 (07x03 m). Inside this area it was measured SWR was measured every 50 cm using the water drop penetration time (WDPT) (Wessel, 1998). A total of 105 points were measured. The probability of SWR was classified in 0 (No probability) to 1 (High probability). The methods accuracy was assessed with the cross validation method. The best interpolation method was the one with the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results showed that the most accurate probability method was SK (RMSE=0.436), followed by DK (RMSE=0.437), IK (RMSE=0.448), PK (RMSE=0.452) and OK (RMSE=0.537). Significant differences were identified among probability tests (Kruskal-Wallis test =199.7597 p<0.001). On average the probability of SWR was high with the OK (0.58±0.08) followed by PK (0.49±0.18), SK (0.32±0.16), DK (0.32±0.15) and IK (0.31±0.16). The most accurate probability methods predicted a lower probability of SWR in the studied plot. The spatial distribution of SWR was different according to the tested technique. Simple Kriging, DK, IK and PK methods

  16. Forecasting client transitions in British Columbia's Long-Term Care Program.

    PubMed Central

    Lane, D; Uyeno, D; Stark, A; Gutman, G; McCashin, B

    1987-01-01

    This article presents a model for the annual transitions of clients through various home and facility placements in a long-term care program. The model, an application of Markov chain analysis, is developed, tested, and applied to over 9,000 clients (N = 9,483) in British Columbia's Long Term Care Program (LTC) over the period 1978-1983. Results show that the model gives accurate forecasts of the progress of groups of clients from state to state in the long-term care system from time of admission until eventual death. Statistical methods are used to test the modeling hypothesis that clients' year-over-year transitions occur in constant proportions from state to state within the long-term care system. Tests are carried out by examining actual year-over-year transitions of each year's new admission cohort (1978-1983). Various subsets of the available data are analyzed and, after accounting for clear differences among annual cohorts, the most acceptable model of the actual client transition data occurred when clients were separated into male and female groups, i.e., the transition behavior of each group is describable by a different Markov model. To validate the model, we develop model estimates for the numbers of existing clients in each state of the long-term care system for the period (1981-1983) for which actual data are available. When these estimates are compared with the actual data, total weighted absolute deviations do not exceed 10 percent of actuals. Finally, we use the properties of the Markov chain probability transition matrix and simulation methods to develop three-year forecasts with prediction intervals for the distribution of the existing total clients into each state of the system. The tests, forecasts, and Markov model supplemental information are contained in a mechanized procedure suitable for a microcomputer. The procedure provides a powerful, efficient tool for decision makers planning facilities and services in response to the needs of long

  17. Evaluating the influential priority of the factors on insurance loss of public transit

    PubMed Central

    Su, Yongmin; Chen, Xinqiang

    2018-01-01

    Understanding correlation between influential factors and insurance losses is beneficial for insurers to accurately price and modify the bonus-malus system. Although there have been a certain number of achievements in insurance losses and claims modeling, limited efforts focus on exploring the relative role of accidents characteristics in insurance losses. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the influential priority of transit accidents attributes, such as the time, location and type of accidents. Based on the dataset from Washington State Transit Insurance Pool (WSTIP) in USA, we implement several key algorithms to achieve the objectives. First, K-means algorithm contributes to cluster the insurance loss data into 6 intervals; second, Grey Relational Analysis (GCA) model is applied to calculate grey relational grades of the influential factors in each interval; in addition, we implement Naive Bayes model to compute the posterior probability of factors values falling in each interval. The results show that the time, location and type of accidents significantly influence the insurance loss in the first five intervals, but their grey relational grades show no significantly difference. In the last interval which represents the highest insurance loss, the grey relational grade of the time is significant higher than that of the location and type of accidents. For each value of the time and location, the insurance loss most likely falls in the first and second intervals which refers to the lower loss. However, for accidents between buses and non-motorized road users, the probability of insurance loss falling in the interval 6 tends to be highest. PMID:29298337

  18. Evaluating the influential priority of the factors on insurance loss of public transit.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wenhui; Su, Yongmin; Ke, Ruimin; Chen, Xinqiang

    2018-01-01

    Understanding correlation between influential factors and insurance losses is beneficial for insurers to accurately price and modify the bonus-malus system. Although there have been a certain number of achievements in insurance losses and claims modeling, limited efforts focus on exploring the relative role of accidents characteristics in insurance losses. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the influential priority of transit accidents attributes, such as the time, location and type of accidents. Based on the dataset from Washington State Transit Insurance Pool (WSTIP) in USA, we implement several key algorithms to achieve the objectives. First, K-means algorithm contributes to cluster the insurance loss data into 6 intervals; second, Grey Relational Analysis (GCA) model is applied to calculate grey relational grades of the influential factors in each interval; in addition, we implement Naive Bayes model to compute the posterior probability of factors values falling in each interval. The results show that the time, location and type of accidents significantly influence the insurance loss in the first five intervals, but their grey relational grades show no significantly difference. In the last interval which represents the highest insurance loss, the grey relational grade of the time is significant higher than that of the location and type of accidents. For each value of the time and location, the insurance loss most likely falls in the first and second intervals which refers to the lower loss. However, for accidents between buses and non-motorized road users, the probability of insurance loss falling in the interval 6 tends to be highest.

  19. Beam maser measurements of CH3OH rotational transitions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaines, L.; Casleton, K. H.; Kukolich, S. G.

    1974-01-01

    Precise measurements of rotational transitions in methanol are reported that were made by means of beam maser spectrometers. No hyperfine structure was resolved at a resonance line width of 8 kHz. Accurate center frequencies for the transitions measured are useful for determining Doppler shifts for observed interstellar lines.

  20. Supervised learning of probability distributions by neural networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baum, Eric B.; Wilczek, Frank

    1988-01-01

    Supervised learning algorithms for feedforward neural networks are investigated analytically. The back-propagation algorithm described by Werbos (1974), Parker (1985), and Rumelhart et al. (1986) is generalized by redefining the values of the input and output neurons as probabilities. The synaptic weights are then varied to follow gradients in the logarithm of likelihood rather than in the error. This modification is shown to provide a more rigorous theoretical basis for the algorithm and to permit more accurate predictions. A typical application involving a medical-diagnosis expert system is discussed.

  1. Phase transition in the countdown problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacasa, Lucas; Luque, Bartolo

    2012-07-01

    We present a combinatorial decision problem, inspired by the celebrated quiz show called Countdown, that involves the computation of a given target number T from a set of k randomly chosen integers along with a set of arithmetic operations. We find that the probability of winning the game evidences a threshold phenomenon that can be understood in the terms of an algorithmic phase transition as a function of the set size k. Numerical simulations show that such probability sharply transitions from zero to one at some critical value of the control parameter, hence separating the algorithm's parameter space in different phases. We also find that the system is maximally efficient close to the critical point. We derive analytical expressions that match the numerical results for finite size and permit us to extrapolate the behavior in the thermodynamic limit.

  2. A Catalog of Transit Timing Posterior Distributions for all Kepler Planet Candidate Transit Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montet, Benjamin Tyler; Becker, Juliette C.; Johnson, John Asher

    2015-12-01

    Kepler has ushered in a new era of planetary dynamics, enabling the detection of interactions between multiple planets in transiting systems for hundreds of systems. These interactions, observed as transit timing variations (TTVs), have been used to find non-transiting companions to transiting systems and to measure masses, eccentricities, and inclinations of transiting planets. Often, physical parameters are inferred by comparing the observed light curve to the result of a photodynamical model, a time-intensive process that often ignores the effects of correlated noise in the light curve. Catalogs of transit timing observations have previously neglected non-Gaussian uncertainties in the times of transit, uncertainties in the transit shape, and short cadence data. Here, I present a catalog of not only times of transit centers, but also posterior distributions on the time of transit for every planet candidate transit event in the Kepler data, developed through importance sampling of each transit. This catalog allows one to marginalize over uncertainties in the transit shape and incorporate short cadence data, the effects of correlated noise, and non-Gaussian posteriors. Our catalog will enable dynamical studies that reflect accurately the precision of Kepler and its limitations without requiring the computational power to model the light curve completely with every integration. I will also present our open-source N-body photodynamical modeling code, which integrates planetary and stellar orbits accounting for the effects of GR, tidal effects, and Doppler beaming.

  3. Isothermal lipid phase transitions.

    PubMed

    Cevc, G

    1991-03-01

    In liotropic lipid systems phase transitions can be induced isothermally by changing the solvent concentration or composition; alternatively, lipid composition can be modified by (bio)chemical means. The probability for isothermal phase transitions increases with the decreasing transition entropy; it is proportional to the magnitude of the transition temperature shift caused by transformation-inducing system variation. Manipulations causing large thermodynamic effects, such as lipid (de)hydration, binding of protons or divalent ions and macromolecular adsorption, but also close bilayer approach are, therefore, likely to cause structural lipid change(s) at a constant temperature. Net lipid charges enhance the membrane susceptibility to salt-induced isothermal phase transitions; a large proportion of this effect is due to the bilayer dehydration, however, rather than being a consequence of the decreased Coulombic electrostatic interactions. Membrane propensity for isothermal phase transitions, consequently, always increases with the hydrophilicity of the lipid heads, as well as with the desaturation and shortening of the lipid chains. Upon a phase change at a constant temperature, some of the interfacially bound solutes (e.g. protons or calcium) are released in the solution. Membrane permeability and fusogenicity simultaneously increase. In mixed systems, isothermal phase transitions, moreover, may result in lateral phase separation. All this opens up ways for the involvement of isothermal phase transitions in the regulation of biological processes.

  4. The Early to Middle Triassic continental-marine transition of NW Bulgaria: sedimentology, palynology and sequence stratigraphy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajdanlijsky, George; Götz, Annette E.; Strasser, André

    2018-04-01

    Sedimentary facies and cycles of the Triassic continental-marine transition of NW Bulgaria are documented in detail from reference sections along the Iskar river gorge between the villages of Tserovo and Opletnya. The depositional environments evolved from anastomosing and meandering river systems in the Petrohan Terrigenous Group to mixed fluvial and tidal settings in the Svidol Formation, and to peritidal and shallow-marine conditions in the Opletnya Member of the Mogila Formation. For the first time, the palynostratigraphic data presented here allow for dating the transitional interval and for the precise identification of a major sequence boundary between the Petrohan Terrigenous Group and the Svidol Formation (Iskar Carbonate Group). This boundary most probably corresponds to the major sequence boundary Ol4 occurring in the upper Olenekian of the Tethyan realm and thus enables interregional correlation. The identification of regionally traceable sequence boundaries based on biostratigraphic age control is a first step towards a more accurate stratigraphic correlation and palaeogeographic interpretation of the Early to early Middle Triassic in NW Bulgaria.

  5. The condition of a finite Markov chain and perturbation bounds for the limiting probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meyer, C. D., Jr.

    1979-01-01

    The inequalities bounding the relative error the norm of w- w squiggly/the norm of w are exhibited by a very simple function of E and A. Let T denote the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C, and let A = I - T. Let E be a perturbation matrix such that T squiggly = T - E is also the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C squiggly. Let w and w squiggly denote the limiting probability (row) vectors for C and C squiggly. The inequality is the best one possible. This bound can be significant in the numerical determination of the limiting probabilities for an ergodic chain. In addition to presenting a sharp bound for the norm of w-w squiggly/the norm of w an explicit expression for w squiggly will be derived in which w squiggly is given as a function of E, A, w and some other related terms.

  6. Are Einstein's transition probabilities for spontaneous emission constant in plasmas?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Griem, H. R.; Huang, Y. W.; Wang, J.-S.; Moreno, J. C.

    1991-01-01

    An investigation is conducted with a ruby laser to experimentally confirm the quenching of spontaneous emission coefficients and propose a mechanism for the phenomenon. Results of previous experiments are examined to determine the consistency and validity of interpretations of the spontaneous emissions. For the C IV 3s-3p and 2s-3p transitions, the line-intensity ratios are found to be dependent on the separation of the laser from the target. Density gradients and Stark broadening are proposed to interpret the results in a way that does not invalidate the Einstein A values. The interpretation is extended to C III and N V, both of which demonstrate similar changes in A values in previous experiments. The apparent quenching of Ar II by photon collisions is explained by Rabi oscillations and power broadening in the argon-ion laser cavity. It is concluded that the changes in A values cannot result from dense plasma effects.

  7. Shuttle orbiter boundary layer transition at flight and wind tunnel conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodrich, W. D.; Derry, S. M.; Bertin, J. J.

    1983-01-01

    Hypersonic boundary layer transition data obtained on the windward centerline of the Shuttle orbiter during entry for the first five flights are presented and analyzed. Because the orbiter surface is composed of a large number of thermal protection tiles, the transition data include the effects of distributed roughness arising from tile misalignment and gaps. These data are used as a benchmark for assessing and improving the accuracy of boundary layer transition predictions based on correlations of wind tunnel data taken on both aerodynamically rough and smooth orbiter surfaces. By comparing these two data bases, the relative importance of tunnel free stream noise and surface roughness on orbiter boundary layer transition correlation parameters can be assessed. This assessment indicates that accurate predications of transition times can be made for the orbiter at hypersonic flight conditions by using roughness dominated wind tunnel data. Specifically, times of transition onset and completion is accurately predicted using a correlation based on critical and effective values of a roughness Reynolds number previously derived from wind tunnel data.

  8. Analysis of airfoil transitional separation bubbles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, R. L.; Carter, J. E.

    1984-01-01

    A previously developed local inviscid-viscous interaction technique for the analysis of airfoil transitional separation bubbles, ALESEP (Airfoil Leading Edge Separation) has been modified to utilize a more accurate windward finite difference procedure in the reversed flow region, and a natural transition/turbulence model has been incorporated for the prediction of transition within the separation bubble. Numerous calculations and experimental comparisons are presented to demonstrate the effects of the windward differencing scheme and the natural transition/turbulence model. Grid sensitivity and convergence capabilities of this inviscid-viscous interaction technique are briefly addressed. A major contribution of this report is that with the use of windward differencing, a second, counter-rotating eddy has been found to exist in the wall layer of the primary separation bubble.

  9. Saccade selection when reward probability is dynamically manipulated using Markov chains

    PubMed Central

    Lovejoy, Lee P.; Krauzlis, Richard J.

    2012-01-01

    Markov chains (stochastic processes where probabilities are assigned based on the previous outcome) are commonly used to examine the transitions between behavioral states, such as those that occur during foraging or social interactions. However, relatively little is known about how well primates can incorporate knowledge about Markov chains into their behavior. Saccadic eye movements are an example of a simple behavior influenced by information about probability, and thus are good candidates for testing whether subjects can learn Markov chains. In addition, when investigating the influence of probability on saccade target selection, the use of Markov chains could provide an alternative method that avoids confounds present in other task designs. To investigate these possibilities, we evaluated human behavior on a task in which stimulus reward probabilities were assigned using a Markov chain. On each trial, the subject selected one of four identical stimuli by saccade; after selection, feedback indicated the rewarded stimulus. Each session consisted of 200–600 trials, and on some sessions, the reward magnitude varied. On sessions with a uniform reward, subjects (n = 6) learned to select stimuli at a frequency close to reward probability, which is similar to human behavior on matching or probability classification tasks. When informed that a Markov chain assigned reward probabilities, subjects (n = 3) learned to select the greatest reward probability more often, bringing them close to behavior that maximizes reward. On sessions where reward magnitude varied across stimuli, subjects (n = 6) demonstrated preferences for both greater reward probability and greater reward magnitude, resulting in a preference for greater expected value (the product of reward probability and magnitude). These results demonstrate that Markov chains can be used to dynamically assign probabilities that are rapidly exploited by human subjects during saccade target selection. PMID:18330552

  10. Saccade selection when reward probability is dynamically manipulated using Markov chains.

    PubMed

    Nummela, Samuel U; Lovejoy, Lee P; Krauzlis, Richard J

    2008-05-01

    Markov chains (stochastic processes where probabilities are assigned based on the previous outcome) are commonly used to examine the transitions between behavioral states, such as those that occur during foraging or social interactions. However, relatively little is known about how well primates can incorporate knowledge about Markov chains into their behavior. Saccadic eye movements are an example of a simple behavior influenced by information about probability, and thus are good candidates for testing whether subjects can learn Markov chains. In addition, when investigating the influence of probability on saccade target selection, the use of Markov chains could provide an alternative method that avoids confounds present in other task designs. To investigate these possibilities, we evaluated human behavior on a task in which stimulus reward probabilities were assigned using a Markov chain. On each trial, the subject selected one of four identical stimuli by saccade; after selection, feedback indicated the rewarded stimulus. Each session consisted of 200-600 trials, and on some sessions, the reward magnitude varied. On sessions with a uniform reward, subjects (n = 6) learned to select stimuli at a frequency close to reward probability, which is similar to human behavior on matching or probability classification tasks. When informed that a Markov chain assigned reward probabilities, subjects (n = 3) learned to select the greatest reward probability more often, bringing them close to behavior that maximizes reward. On sessions where reward magnitude varied across stimuli, subjects (n = 6) demonstrated preferences for both greater reward probability and greater reward magnitude, resulting in a preference for greater expected value (the product of reward probability and magnitude). These results demonstrate that Markov chains can be used to dynamically assign probabilities that are rapidly exploited by human subjects during saccade target selection.

  11. A statistical method for assessing peptide identification confidence in accurate mass and time tag proteomics

    PubMed Central

    Stanley, Jeffrey R.; Adkins, Joshua N.; Slysz, Gordon W.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Karpievitch, Yuliya V.; Anderson, Gordon A.; Smith, Richard D.; Dabney, Alan R.

    2011-01-01

    Current algorithms for quantifying peptide identification confidence in the accurate mass and time (AMT) tag approach assume that the AMT tags themselves have been correctly identified. However, there is uncertainty in the identification of AMT tags, as this is based on matching LC-MS/MS fragmentation spectra to peptide sequences. In this paper, we incorporate confidence measures for the AMT tag identifications into the calculation of probabilities for correct matches to an AMT tag database, resulting in a more accurate overall measure of identification confidence for the AMT tag approach. The method is referred to as Statistical Tools for AMT tag Confidence (STAC). STAC additionally provides a Uniqueness Probability (UP) to help distinguish between multiple matches to an AMT tag and a method to calculate an overall false discovery rate (FDR). STAC is freely available for download as both a command line and a Windows graphical application. PMID:21692516

  12. Accurate sub-millimetre rest frequencies for HOCO+ and DOCO+ ions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bizzocchi, L.; Lattanzi, V.; Laas, J.; Spezzano, S.; Giuliano, B. M.; Prudenzano, D.; Endres, C.; Sipilä, O.; Caselli, P.

    2017-06-01

    Context. HOCO+ is a polar molecule that represents a useful proxy for its parent molecule CO2, which is not directly observable in the cold interstellar medium. This cation has been detected towards several lines of sight, including massive star forming regions, protostars, and cold cores. Despite the obvious astrochemical relevance, protonated CO2 and its deuterated variant, DOCO+, still lack an accurate spectroscopic characterisation. Aims: The aim of this work is to extend the study of the ground-state pure rotational spectra of HOCO+ and DOCO+ well into the sub-millimetre region. Methods: Ground-state transitions have been recorded in the laboratory using a frequency-modulation absorption spectrometer equipped with a free-space glow-discharge cell. The ions were produced in a low-density, magnetically confined plasma generated in a suitable gas mixture. The ground-state spectra of HOCO+ and DOCO+ have been investigated in the 213-967 GHz frequency range; 94 new rotational transitions have been detected. Additionally, 46 line positions taken from the literature have been accurately remeasured. Results: The newly measured lines have significantly enlarged the available data sets for HOCO+ and DOCO+, thus enabling the determination of highly accurate rotational and centrifugal distortion parameters. Our analysis shows that all HOCO+ lines with Ka ≥ 3 are perturbed by a ro-vibrational interaction that couples the ground state with the v5 = 1 vibrationally excited state. This resonance has been explicitly treated in the analysis in order to obtain molecular constants with clear physical meaning. Conclusions: The improved sets of spectroscopic parameters provide enhanced lists of very accurate sub-millimetre rest frequencies of HOCO+ and DOCO+ for astrophysical applications. These new data challenge a recent tentative identification of DOCO+ towards a pre-stellar core. Supplementary tables are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http

  13. Modeling the effect of reward amount on probability discounting.

    PubMed

    Myerson, Joel; Green, Leonard; Morris, Joshua

    2011-03-01

    The present study with college students examined the effect of amount on the discounting of probabilistic monetary rewards. A hyperboloid function accurately described the discounting of hypothetical rewards ranging in amount from $20 to $10,000,000. The degree of discounting increased continuously with amount of probabilistic reward. This effect of amount was not due to changes in the rate parameter of the discounting function, but rather was due to increases in the exponent. These results stand in contrast to those observed with the discounting of delayed monetary rewards, in which the degree of discounting decreases with reward amount due to amount-dependent decreases in the rate parameter. Taken together, this pattern of results suggests that delay and probability discounting reflect different underlying mechanisms. That is, the fact that the exponent in the delay discounting function is independent of amount is consistent with a psychophysical scaling interpretation, whereas the finding that the exponent of the probability-discounting function is amount-dependent is inconsistent with such an interpretation. Instead, the present results are consistent with the idea that the probability-discounting function is itself the product of a value function and a weighting function. This idea was first suggested by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), although their prospect theory does not predict amount effects like those observed. The effect of amount on probability discounting was parsimoniously incorporated into our hyperboloid discounting function by assuming that the exponent was proportional to the amount raised to a power. The amount-dependent exponent of the probability-discounting function may be viewed as reflecting the effect of amount on the weighting of the probability with which the reward will be received.

  14. Accurate quantum chemical calculations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.; Langhoff, Stephen R.; Taylor, Peter R.

    1989-01-01

    An important goal of quantum chemical calculations is to provide an understanding of chemical bonding and molecular electronic structure. A second goal, the prediction of energy differences to chemical accuracy, has been much harder to attain. First, the computational resources required to achieve such accuracy are very large, and second, it is not straightforward to demonstrate that an apparently accurate result, in terms of agreement with experiment, does not result from a cancellation of errors. Recent advances in electronic structure methodology, coupled with the power of vector supercomputers, have made it possible to solve a number of electronic structure problems exactly using the full configuration interaction (FCI) method within a subspace of the complete Hilbert space. These exact results can be used to benchmark approximate techniques that are applicable to a wider range of chemical and physical problems. The methodology of many-electron quantum chemistry is reviewed. Methods are considered in detail for performing FCI calculations. The application of FCI methods to several three-electron problems in molecular physics are discussed. A number of benchmark applications of FCI wave functions are described. Atomic basis sets and the development of improved methods for handling very large basis sets are discussed: these are then applied to a number of chemical and spectroscopic problems; to transition metals; and to problems involving potential energy surfaces. Although the experiences described give considerable grounds for optimism about the general ability to perform accurate calculations, there are several problems that have proved less tractable, at least with current computer resources, and these and possible solutions are discussed.

  15. Collisional Dynamics of the Cesium D1 and D2 Transitions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-09-01

    37 14. Comparison of Phase Changing Probability and Polarizability ...Phase Changing Probability and Polarizability for D2 Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 25...theoretically determined the values for broadening and shift rates for cesium with Argon , Krypton, and Xenon from the interatomic potentials [27]. The rates

  16. Phase transitions in Nowak Sznajd opinion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wołoszyn, Maciej; Stauffer, Dietrich; Kułakowski, Krzysztof

    2007-05-01

    The Nowak modification of the Sznajd opinion dynamics model on the square lattice assumes that with probability β the opinions flip due to mass-media advertising from down to up, and vice versa. Besides, with probability α the Sznajd rule applies that a neighbour pair agreeing in its two opinions convinces all its six neighbours of that opinion. Our Monte Carlo simulations and mean-field theory find sharp phase transitions in the parameter space.

  17. Flight and wind-tunnel correlation of boundary-layer transition on the AEDC transition cone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fisher, D. L.; Dougherty, N. S., Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Transition and fluctuating surface pressure data were acquired on a 10 deg included angle cone, using the same instrumentation and technique over a wide range of Mach and Reynolds numbers in 23 wind tunnels and in flight. Transition was detected with a traversing pitot-pressure probe in contact with the surface. The surface pressure fluctuations were measured with microphones set flush in the cone surface. Good correlation of end of transition Reynolds number RE(T) was obtained between data from the lower disturbance wind tunnels and flight up to a boundary layer edge Mach number, M(e) = 1.2. Above M(e) = 1.2, however, this correlation deteriorates, with the flight Re(T) being 25 to 30% higher than the wind tunnel Re(T) at M(e) = 1.6. The end of transition Reynolds number correlated within + or - 20% with the surface pressure fluctuations, according to the equation used. Broad peaks in the power spectral density distributions indicated that Tollmien-Schlichting waves were the probable cause of transition in flight and in some of the wind tunnels.

  18. Contingency bias in probability judgement may arise from ambiguity regarding additional causes.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Chris J; Griffiths, Oren; More, Pranjal; Lovibond, Peter F

    2013-09-01

    In laboratory contingency learning tasks, people usually give accurate estimates of the degree of contingency between a cue and an outcome. However, if they are asked to estimate the probability of the outcome in the presence of the cue, they tend to be biased by the probability of the outcome in the absence of the cue. This bias is often attributed to an automatic contingency detection mechanism, which is said to act via an excitatory associative link to activate the outcome representation at the time of testing. We conducted 3 experiments to test alternative accounts of contingency bias. Participants were exposed to the same outcome probability in the presence of the cue, but different outcome probabilities in the absence of the cue. Phrasing the test question in terms of frequency rather than probability and clarifying the test instructions reduced but did not eliminate contingency bias. However, removal of ambiguity regarding the presence of additional causes during the test phase did eliminate contingency bias. We conclude that contingency bias may be due to ambiguity in the test question, and therefore it does not require postulation of a separate associative link-based mechanism.

  19. Accurate spectroscopic characterization of oxirane: A valuable route to its identification in Titan's atmosphere and the assignment of unidentified infrared bands

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Puzzarini, Cristina; Biczysko, Malgorzata; Bloino, Julien

    2014-04-20

    In an effort to provide an accurate spectroscopic characterization of oxirane, state-of-the-art computational methods and approaches have been employed to determine highly accurate fundamental vibrational frequencies and rotational parameters. Available experimental data were used to assess the reliability of our computations, and an accuracy on average of 10 cm{sup –1} for fundamental transitions as well as overtones and combination bands has been pointed out. Moving to rotational spectroscopy, relative discrepancies of 0.1%, 2%-3%, and 3%-4% were observed for rotational, quartic, and sextic centrifugal-distortion constants, respectively. We are therefore confident that the highly accurate spectroscopic data provided herein can be usefulmore » for identification of oxirane in Titan's atmosphere and the assignment of unidentified infrared bands. Since oxirane was already observed in the interstellar medium and some astronomical objects are characterized by very high D/H ratios, we also considered the accurate determination of the spectroscopic parameters for the mono-deuterated species, oxirane-d1. For the latter, an empirical scaling procedure allowed us to improve our computed data and to provide predictions for rotational transitions with a relative accuracy of about 0.02% (i.e., an uncertainty of about 40 MHz for a transition lying at 200 GHz).« less

  20. Brain injury prediction: assessing the combined probability of concussion using linear and rotational head acceleration.

    PubMed

    Rowson, Steven; Duma, Stefan M

    2013-05-01

    Recent research has suggested possible long term effects due to repetitive concussions, highlighting the importance of developing methods to accurately quantify concussion risk. This study introduces a new injury metric, the combined probability of concussion, which computes the overall risk of concussion based on the peak linear and rotational accelerations experienced by the head during impact. The combined probability of concussion is unique in that it determines the likelihood of sustaining a concussion for a given impact, regardless of whether the injury would be reported or not. The risk curve was derived from data collected from instrumented football players (63,011 impacts including 37 concussions), which was adjusted to account for the underreporting of concussion. The predictive capability of this new metric is compared to that of single biomechanical parameters. The capabilities of these parameters to accurately predict concussion incidence were evaluated using two separate datasets: the Head Impact Telemetry System (HITS) data and National Football League (NFL) data collected from impact reconstructions using dummies (58 impacts including 25 concussions). Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated, and all parameters were significantly better at predicting injury than random guessing. The combined probability of concussion had the greatest area under the curve for all datasets. In the HITS dataset, the combined probability of concussion and linear acceleration were significantly better predictors of concussion than rotational acceleration alone, but not different from each other. In the NFL dataset, there were no significant differences between parameters. The combined probability of concussion is a valuable method to assess concussion risk in a laboratory setting for evaluating product safety.

  1. Frequency, probability, and prediction: easy solutions to cognitive illusions?

    PubMed

    Griffin, D; Buehler, R

    1999-02-01

    Many errors in probabilistic judgment have been attributed to people's inability to think in statistical terms when faced with information about a single case. Prior theoretical analyses and empirical results imply that the errors associated with case-specific reasoning may be reduced when people make frequentistic predictions about a set of cases. In studies of three previously identified cognitive biases, we find that frequency-based predictions are different from-but no better than-case-specific judgments of probability. First, in studies of the "planning fallacy, " we compare the accuracy of aggregate frequency and case-specific probability judgments in predictions of students' real-life projects. When aggregate and single-case predictions are collected from different respondents, there is little difference between the two: Both are overly optimistic and show little predictive validity. However, in within-subject comparisons, the aggregate judgments are significantly more conservative than the single-case predictions, though still optimistically biased. Results from studies of overconfidence in general knowledge and base rate neglect in categorical prediction underline a general conclusion. Frequentistic predictions made for sets of events are no more statistically sophisticated, nor more accurate, than predictions made for individual events using subjective probability. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  2. The photon-plasmon transitions and diagnostics of the space plasma turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glushkov, Alexander; Glushkov, Alexander; Khetselius, Olga

    We present a new approach to treating the space plasma turbulence, based on using to make diagnostic data regarding the photon-plasmon transitions. The theoretical definition of characteristics for these transitions is caried out within consistent theoretical approach, based on the Gell-Mann and Low formalism (energy approach in QED theory).We apply it to calculation of such transitions (Ps) with emission of photon and Langmuir quanta. It is well known that the hfs states of positronium Ps Ps differ in spin S, life time t and mode of annihilation. As a rule, probabilities of the cascade radiation transitions are more than the annihilation probability. The ortho-Ps atom has a metastable state 23s1 and probability of two-photon radiation transition from this state into 13s1 state (1.8•10(-3) 1/s) is significantly less than probability of the three-photon annihilation directly from 23s1level 8.9•10(5) s(-1), i.e. it is usually supposed that the ortho-Ps annihilates from 23s1state. Another situation may take place in plasma, where it is arisen the competition process of destruction of the metastable level - the photonplasmon transition 23s1-13s1with emission of photon and Langmuir quanta. In this paper we carried out the calculation of the probability of the Ps photon-plasmon transition and propose tu use it for diagnostics of the space plasma (dusty one etc.).Standard S-matrix calculation with using an expression for tensor of dielectric permeability of the isotropic space plasma and dispersion relationships for transverse and Langmuir waves [3] allows getting the corresponding probability P(ph-pl). Numerical value of P(ph-pl) is 5.2•10(6)•UL(s-1), where UL is density of the Langmuir waves energy. Our value is correlated with estimate, available in literature [3]: P(phpl)= 6•10(6)•UL (s-1). Comparison of the obtained probability with the life time t(3) allows getting the condition of predominance of the photon-plasmon transition over three

  3. Probability and the changing shape of response distributions for orientation.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Britt

    2014-11-18

    Spatial attention and feature-based attention are regarded as two independent mechanisms for biasing the processing of sensory stimuli. Feature attention is held to be a spatially invariant mechanism that advantages a single feature per sensory dimension. In contrast to the prediction of location independence, I found that participants were able to report the orientation of a briefly presented visual grating better for targets defined by high probability conjunctions of features and locations even when orientations and locations were individually uniform. The advantage for high-probability conjunctions was accompanied by changes in the shape of the response distributions. High-probability conjunctions had error distributions that were not normally distributed but demonstrated increased kurtosis. The increase in kurtosis could be explained as a change in the variances of the component tuning functions that comprise a population mixture. By changing the mixture distribution of orientation-tuned neurons, it is possible to change the shape of the discrimination function. This prompts the suggestion that attention may not "increase" the quality of perceptual processing in an absolute sense but rather prioritizes some stimuli over others. This results in an increased number of highly accurate responses to probable targets and, simultaneously, an increase in the number of very inaccurate responses. © 2014 ARVO.

  4. Steady-state distributions of probability fluxes on complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chełminiak, Przemysław; Kurzyński, Michał

    2017-02-01

    We consider a simple model of the Markovian stochastic dynamics on complex networks to examine the statistical properties of the probability fluxes. The additional transition, called hereafter a gate, powered by the external constant force breaks a detailed balance in the network. We argue, using a theoretical approach and numerical simulations, that the stationary distributions of the probability fluxes emergent under such conditions converge to the Gaussian distribution. By virtue of the stationary fluctuation theorem, its standard deviation depends directly on the square root of the mean flux. In turn, the nonlinear relation between the mean flux and the external force, which provides the key result of the present study, allows us to calculate the two parameters that entirely characterize the Gaussian distribution of the probability fluxes both close to as well as far from the equilibrium state. Also, the other effects that modify these parameters, such as the addition of shortcuts to the tree-like network, the extension and configuration of the gate and a change in the network size studied by means of computer simulations are widely discussed in terms of the rigorous theoretical predictions.

  5. Lane detection based on color probability model and fuzzy clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Yang; Jo, Kang-Hyun

    2018-04-01

    In the vehicle driver assistance systems, the accuracy and speed of lane line detection are the most important. This paper is based on color probability model and Fuzzy Local Information C-Means (FLICM) clustering algorithm. The Hough transform and the constraints of structural road are used to detect the lane line accurately. The global map of the lane line is drawn by the lane curve fitting equation. The experimental results show that the algorithm has good robustness.

  6. The quark-hadron phase transition and primordial nucleosynthesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hogan, Craig J.

    1987-01-01

    After presenting the current view of the processes taking place during the cosmological transition from 'quark soup' to normal hadron matter, attention is given to what happens to cosmological nucleosynthesis in the presence of small-scale baryon inhomogeneities. The QCD phase transition is among the plausible sources of this inhomogeneity. It is concluded that the formation of primordial 'quark nuggets' and other cold exotica requires very low entropy regions at the outset, and that even the more modest nonlinearities perturbing nucleosynthesis probably require some ingredient in addition to a quiescent, mildly supercooled transition.

  7. Slowdown of Interhelical Motions Induces a Glass Transition in RNA

    PubMed Central

    Frank, Aaron T.; Zhang, Qi; Al-Hashimi, Hashim M.; Andricioaei, Ioan

    2015-01-01

    RNA function depends crucially on the details of its dynamics. The simplest RNA dynamical unit is a two-way interhelical junction. Here, for such a unit—the transactivation response RNA element—we present evidence from molecular dynamics simulations, supported by nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation experiments, for a dynamical transition near 230 K. This glass transition arises from the freezing out of collective interhelical motional modes. The motions, resolved with site-specificity, are dynamically heterogeneous and exhibit non-Arrhenius relaxation. The microscopic origin of the glass transition is a low-dimensional, slow manifold consisting largely of the Euler angles describing interhelical reorientation. Principal component analysis over a range of temperatures covering the glass transition shows that the abrupt slowdown of motion finds its explanation in a localization transition that traps probability density into several disconnected conformational pools over the low-dimensional energy landscape. Upon temperature increase, the probability density pools then flood a larger basin, akin to a lakes-to-sea transition. Simulations on transactivation response RNA are also used to backcalculate inelastic neutron scattering data that match previous inelastic neutron scattering measurements on larger and more complex RNA structures and which, upon normalization, give temperature-dependent fluctuation profiles that overlap onto a glass transition curve that is quasi-universal over a range of systems and techniques. PMID:26083927

  8. Spatial Probability Distribution of Strata's Lithofacies and its Impacts on Land Subsidence in Huairou Emergency Water Resources Region of Beijing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.; Gong, H.; Zhu, L.; Guo, L.; Gao, M.; Zhou, C.

    2016-12-01

    Continuous over-exploitation of groundwater causes dramatic drawdown, and leads to regional land subsidence in the Huairou Emergency Water Resources region, which is located in the up-middle part of the Chaobai river basin of Beijing. Owing to the spatial heterogeneity of strata's lithofacies of the alluvial fan, ground deformation has no significant positive correlation with groundwater drawdown, and one of the challenges ahead is to quantify the spatial distribution of strata's lithofacies. The transition probability geostatistics approach provides potential for characterizing the distribution of heterogeneous lithofacies in the subsurface. Combined the thickness of clay layer extracted from the simulation, with deformation field acquired from PS-InSAR technology, the influence of strata's lithofacies on land subsidence can be analyzed quantitatively. The strata's lithofacies derived from borehole data were generalized into four categories and their probability distribution in the observe space was mined by using the transition probability geostatistics, of which clay was the predominant compressible material. Geologically plausible realizations of lithofacies distribution were produced, accounting for complex heterogeneity in alluvial plain. At a particular probability level of more than 40 percent, the volume of clay defined was 55 percent of the total volume of strata's lithofacies. This level, equaling nearly the volume of compressible clay derived from the geostatistics, was thus chosen to represent the boundary between compressible and uncompressible material. The method incorporates statistical geological information, such as distribution proportions, average lengths and juxtaposition tendencies of geological types, mainly derived from borehole data and expert knowledge, into the Markov chain model of transition probability. Some similarities of patterns were indicated between the spatial distribution of deformation field and clay layer. In the area with

  9. Accurate energy levels for singly ionized platinum (Pt II)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reader, Joseph; Acquista, Nicolo; Sansonetti, Craig J.; Engleman, Rolf, Jr.

    1988-01-01

    New observations of the spectrum of Pt II have been made with hollow-cathode lamps. The region from 1032 to 4101 A was observed photographically with a 10.7-m normal-incidence spectrograph. The region from 2245 to 5223 A was observed with a Fourier-transform spectrometer. Wavelength measurements were made for 558 lines. The uncertainties vary from 0.0005 to 0.004 A. From these measurements and three parity-forbidden transitions in the infrared, accurate values were determined for 28 even and 72 odd energy levels of Pt II.

  10. Racial and Ethnic Variation in the Relationship Between Student Loan Debt and the Transition to First Birth.

    PubMed

    Min, Stella; Taylor, Miles G

    2018-02-01

    The present study employs discrete-time hazard regression models to investigate the relationship between student loan debt and the probability of transitioning to either marital or nonmarital first childbirth using the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97). Accounting for nonrandom selection into student loans using propensity scores, our study reveals that the effect of student loan debt on the transition to motherhood differs among white, black, and Hispanic women. Hispanic women holding student loans experience significant declines in the probability of transitioning to both marital and nonmarital motherhood, whereas black women with student loans are significantly more likely to transition to any first childbirth. Indebted white women experience only a decrease in the probability of a marital first birth. The results from this study suggest that student loans will likely play a key role in shaping future demographic patterns and behaviors.

  11. Estimation of probability of failure for damage-tolerant aerospace structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halbert, Keith

    The majority of aircraft structures are designed to be damage-tolerant such that safe operation can continue in the presence of minor damage. It is necessary to schedule inspections so that minor damage can be found and repaired. It is generally not possible to perform structural inspections prior to every flight. The scheduling is traditionally accomplished through a deterministic set of methods referred to as Damage Tolerance Analysis (DTA). DTA has proven to produce safe aircraft but does not provide estimates of the probability of failure of future flights or the probability of repair of future inspections. Without these estimates maintenance costs cannot be accurately predicted. Also, estimation of failure probabilities is now a regulatory requirement for some aircraft. The set of methods concerned with the probabilistic formulation of this problem are collectively referred to as Probabilistic Damage Tolerance Analysis (PDTA). The goal of PDTA is to control the failure probability while holding maintenance costs to a reasonable level. This work focuses specifically on PDTA for fatigue cracking of metallic aircraft structures. The growth of a crack (or cracks) must be modeled using all available data and engineering knowledge. The length of a crack can be assessed only indirectly through evidence such as non-destructive inspection results, failures or lack of failures, and the observed severity of usage of the structure. The current set of industry PDTA tools are lacking in several ways: they may in some cases yield poor estimates of failure probabilities, they cannot realistically represent the variety of possible failure and maintenance scenarios, and they do not allow for model updates which incorporate observed evidence. A PDTA modeling methodology must be flexible enough to estimate accurately the failure and repair probabilities under a variety of maintenance scenarios, and be capable of incorporating observed evidence as it becomes available. This

  12. Control and instanton trajectories for random transitions in turbulent flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouchet, Freddy; Laurie, Jason; Zaboronski, Oleg

    2011-12-01

    Many turbulent systems exhibit random switches between qualitatively different attractors. The transition between these bistable states is often an extremely rare event, that can not be computed through DNS, due to complexity limitations. We present results for the calculation of instanton trajectories (a control problem) between non-equilibrium stationary states (attractors) in the 2D stochastic Navier-Stokes equations. By representing the transition probability between two states using a path integral formulation, we can compute the most probable trajectory (instanton) joining two non-equilibrium stationary states. Technically, this is equivalent to the minimization of an action, which can be related to a fluid mechanics control problem.

  13. The Influence of Vocabulary Size, Phonotactic Probability, and Wordlikeness on Nonword Repetitions of Children with and without Specific Language Impairment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Munson, Benjamin; Kurtz, Beth A.; Windsor, Jennifer

    2005-01-01

    Research has shown that children repeat high-probability phoneme sequences more accurately than low-probability ones. This effect attenuates with age, and its decrease is predicted by developmental changes in the size of the lexicon (J. Edwards, M. E. Beckman, & B. Munson, 2004; B. Munson, 2001; B. Munson, J. Edwards, & M. Beckman, 2005). This…

  14. The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

    2004-01-01

    In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

  15. Evolutionary transitions in parental care and live bearing in vertebrates.

    PubMed Central

    Reynolds, John D; Goodwin, Nicholas B; Freckleton, Robert P

    2002-01-01

    We provide the first review of phylogenetic transitions in parental care and live bearing for a wide variety of vertebrates. This includes new analyses of both numbers of transitions and transition probabilities. These reveal numerous transitions by shorebirds and anurans toward uniparental care by either sex. Whereas most or all of the shorebird transitions were from biparental care, nearly all of the anuran transitions have been from no care, reflecting the prevalence of each form of care in basal lineages in each group. Teleost (bony) fishes are similar to anurans in displaying numerous transitions toward uniparental contributions by each sex. Whereas cichlid fishes have often evolved from biparental care to female care, other teleosts have usually switched from no care to male care. Taxa that have evolved exclusive male care without courtship-role reversal are characterized by male territoriality and low costs of care per brood. Males may therefore benefit from care through female preference of parental ability in these species. Primates show a high frequency of transitions from female care to biparental care, reflecting the prevalence of female care in basal lineages. In the numerous taxa that display live bearing by females, including teleosts, elasmobranchs, squamate reptiles and invertebrates, we find that live bearing has always evolved from a lack of care. Although the transition counts and probabilities will undoubtedly be refined as phylogenetic information and methodologies improve, the overall biases in these taxa should help to place adaptive hypotheses for the evolution of care into a stronger setting for understanding directions of change. PMID:11958696

  16. Psychological and Social Risk Factors in Adolescent Smoking Transitions: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study

    PubMed Central

    Bricker, Jonathan B.; Rajan, K. Bharat; Zalewski, Maureen; Andersen, M. Robyn; Ramey, Madelaine; Peterson, Arthur V.

    2009-01-01

    Objective This study longitudinally investigated psychological and social risk factors consistent with the Theory of Triadic Influence (TTI) as predictors of adolescent smoking transitions. Design Among 4218 adolescents, five psychological risk factors (i.e., parent-noncompliance, friend-compliance, rebelliousness, low achievement motivation, and thrill seeking) were assessed in 9th grade (age 14), two social influence risk factors (i.e., parents’ and close friends’ smoking) were assessed in grades 3 (age 8) and 9 (age 14), respectively. Main Outcome Measures Adolescent smoking transitions occurring between the 9th and 12th (ages 14–17) grade interval. Results There was a 22–27% probability contributed by scoring high on each of these psychological risk factors to the overall probability that an adolescent would try smoking. For predicting trying smoking, the probability contributed by these psychological factors was greater than the probability contributed by each parent’s and close friend’s smoking. Parent-compliance had a higher contribution to the probability of trying smoking when an adolescent’s parent smoked (p < .05), while friend-compliance had a higher contribution to the probability of trying smoking when an adolescent’s friend smoked (p<.001). Conclusion These psychological and social factors have an important influence on adolescent smoking transitions. Implications for TTI and smoking prevention interventions are discussed. PMID:19594268

  17. Mortality Probability Model III and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II

    PubMed Central

    Vasilevskis, Eduard E.; Kuzniewicz, Michael W.; Cason, Brian A.; Lane, Rondall K.; Dean, Mitzi L.; Clay, Ted; Rennie, Deborah J.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Dudley, R. Adams

    2009-01-01

    Background: To develop and compare ICU length-of-stay (LOS) risk-adjustment models using three commonly used mortality or LOS prediction models. Methods: Between 2001 and 2004, we performed a retrospective, observational study of 11,295 ICU patients from 35 hospitals in the California Intensive Care Outcomes Project. We compared the accuracy of the following three LOS models: a recalibrated acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) IV-LOS model; and models developed using risk factors in the mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0) and the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II mortality prediction model. We evaluated models by calculating the following: (1) grouped coefficients of determination; (2) differences between observed and predicted LOS across subgroups; and (3) intraclass correlations of observed/expected LOS ratios between models. Results: The grouped coefficients of determination were APACHE IV with coefficients recalibrated to the LOS values of the study cohort (APACHE IVrecal) [R2 = 0.422], mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0 III) [R2 = 0.279], and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) [R2 = 0.008]. For each decile of predicted ICU LOS, the mean predicted LOS vs the observed LOS was significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) for three, two, and six deciles using APACHE IVrecal, MPM0 III, and SAPS II, respectively. Plots of the predicted vs the observed LOS ratios of the hospitals revealed a threefold variation in LOS among hospitals with high model correlations. Conclusions: APACHE IV and MPM0 III were more accurate than SAPS II for the prediction of ICU LOS. APACHE IV is the most accurate and best calibrated model. Although it is less accurate, MPM0 III may be a reasonable option if the data collection burden or the treatment effect bias is a consideration. PMID:19363210

  18. Pseudopotentials for quantum Monte Carlo studies of transition metal oxides

    DOE PAGES

    Krogel, Jaron T.; Santana Palacio, Juan A.; Reboredo, Fernando A.

    2016-02-22

    Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) calculations of transition metal oxides are partially limited by the availability of high-quality pseudopotentials that are both accurate in QMC and compatible with major plane-wave electronic structure codes. We have generated a set of neon-core pseudopotentials with small cutoff radii for the early transition metal elements Sc to Zn within the local density approximation of density functional theory. The pseudopotentials have been directly tested for accuracy within QMC by calculating the first through fourth ionization potentials of the isolated transition metal (M) atoms and the binding curve of each M-O dimer. We find the ionization potentialsmore » to be accurate to 0.16(1) eV, on average, relative to experiment. The equilibrium bond lengths of the dimers are within 0.5(1)% of experimental values, on average, and the binding energies are also typically accurate to 0.18(3) eV. The level of accuracy we find for atoms and dimers is comparable to what has recently been observed for bulk metals and oxides using the same pseudopotentials. Our QMC pseudopotential results compare well with the findings of previous QMC studies and benchmark quantum chemical calculations.« less

  19. American Higher Education in Transition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    2011-01-01

    American higher education is in transition and if there ever was a "golden age" for faculty, it probably is behind us. The best historical data on the composition of faculty is collected annually by the American Mathematical Society. Between 1967 and 2009, the share of full-time faculty with PhDs remained constant at about 90 percent at…

  20. TTVFaster: First order eccentricity transit timing variations (TTVs)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agol, Eric; Deck, Katherine

    2016-04-01

    TTVFaster implements analytic formulae for transit time variations (TTVs) that are accurate to first order in the planet-star mass ratios and in the orbital eccentricities; the implementations are available in several languages, including IDL, Julia, Python and C. These formulae compare well with more computationally expensive N-body integrations in the low-eccentricity, low mass-ratio regime when applied to simulated and to actual multi-transiting Kepler planet systems.

  1. PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

  2. Electrical Conductivity in Transition Metals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Talbot, Christopher; Vickneson, Kishanda

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this "Science Note" is to describe how to test the electron-sea model to determine whether it accurately predicts relative electrical conductivity for first-row transition metals. In the electron-sea model, a metal crystal is viewed as a three-dimensional array of metal cations immersed in a sea of delocalised valence…

  3. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  4. Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  5. Finite-size scaling for discontinuous nonequilibrium phase transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Oliveira, Marcelo M.; da Luz, M. G. E.; Fiore, Carlos E.

    2018-06-01

    A finite-size scaling theory, originally developed only for transitions to absorbing states [Phys. Rev. E 92, 062126 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062126], is extended to distinct sorts of discontinuous nonequilibrium phase transitions. Expressions for quantities such as response functions, reduced cumulants, and equal area probability distributions are derived from phenomenological arguments. Irrespective of system details, all these quantities scale with the volume, establishing the dependence on size. The approach generality is illustrated through the analysis of different models. The present results are a relevant step in trying to unify the scaling behavior description of nonequilibrium transition processes.

  6. Decreased sleep stage transition pattern complexity in narcolepsy type 1.

    PubMed

    Ferri, Raffaele; Pizza, Fabio; Vandi, Stefano; Iloti, Martina; Plazzi, Giuseppe

    2016-08-01

    To analyze the complexity of the nocturnal sleep stage sequence in central disorders of hypersomnolence (CDH), with the hypothesis that narcolepsy type 1 (NT1) might exhibit distinctive sleep stage sequence organization and complexity. Seventy-nine NT1 patients, 22 narcolepsy type 2 (NT2), 22 idiopathic hypersomnia (IH), and 52 patients with subjective hypersomnolence (sHS) were recruited and their nocturnal sleep was polysomnographically recorded and scored. Group between-stage transition probability matrices were obtained and compared. Patients with NT1 differed significantly from all the other patient groups, the latter, in turn, were not different between each other. The individual probability of the R-to-N2 transition was found to be the parameter showing the difference of highest significance between the groups (lowest in NT1) and classified patients with or without NT1 with an accuracy of 78.9% (sensitivity 78.5% and specificity 79.2%), by applying a cut-off value of 0.15. The main result of this study is that the structure of the sleep stage transition pattern of hypocretin-deficient NT1 patients is significantly different from that of other forms of CDH and sHS, with normal hypocretin levels. The lower probability of R-to-N2 transition occurrence in NT1 appears to be a reliable polysomnographic feature with potential application at the individual level, for supportive diagnostic purposes. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Brick tunnel randomization and the momentum of the probability mass.

    PubMed

    Kuznetsova, Olga M

    2015-12-30

    The allocation space of an unequal-allocation permuted block randomization can be quite wide. The development of unequal-allocation procedures with a narrower allocation space, however, is complicated by the need to preserve the unconditional allocation ratio at every step (the allocation ratio preserving (ARP) property). When the allocation paths are depicted on the K-dimensional unitary grid, where allocation to the l-th treatment is represented by a step along the l-th axis, l = 1 to K, the ARP property can be expressed in terms of the center of the probability mass after i allocations. Specifically, for an ARP allocation procedure that randomizes subjects to K treatment groups in w1 :⋯:wK ratio, w1 +⋯+wK =1, the coordinates of the center of the mass are (w1 i,…,wK i). In this paper, the momentum with respect to the center of the probability mass (expected imbalance in treatment assignments) is used to compare ARP procedures in how closely they approximate the target allocation ratio. It is shown that the two-arm and three-arm brick tunnel randomizations (BTR) are the ARP allocation procedures with the tightest allocation space among all allocation procedures with the same allocation ratio; the two-arm BTR is the minimum-momentum two-arm ARP allocation procedure. Resident probabilities of two-arm and three-arm BTR are analytically derived from the coordinates of the center of the probability mass; the existence of the respective transition probabilities is proven. Probability of deterministic assignments with BTR is found generally acceptable. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Predicting the probability of slip in gait: methodology and distribution study.

    PubMed

    Gragg, Jared; Yang, James

    2016-01-01

    The likelihood of a slip is related to the available and required friction for a certain activity, here gait. Classical slip and fall analysis presumed that a walking surface was safe if the difference between the mean available and required friction coefficients exceeded a certain threshold. Previous research was dedicated to reformulating the classical slip and fall theory to include the stochastic variation of the available and required friction when predicting the probability of slip in gait. However, when predicting the probability of a slip, previous researchers have either ignored the variation in the required friction or assumed the available and required friction to be normally distributed. Also, there are no published results that actually give the probability of slip for various combinations of required and available frictions. This study proposes a modification to the equation for predicting the probability of slip, reducing the previous equation from a double-integral to a more convenient single-integral form. Also, a simple numerical integration technique is provided to predict the probability of slip in gait: the trapezoidal method. The effect of the random variable distributions on the probability of slip is also studied. It is shown that both the required and available friction distributions cannot automatically be assumed as being normally distributed. The proposed methods allow for any combination of distributions for the available and required friction, and numerical results are compared to analytical solutions for an error analysis. The trapezoidal method is shown to be highly accurate and efficient. The probability of slip is also shown to be sensitive to the input distributions of the required and available friction. Lastly, a critical value for the probability of slip is proposed based on the number of steps taken by an average person in a single day.

  9. Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Vourdas, A.

    2014-08-15

    The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H{sub 1},H{sub 2}), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H{sub 1}),P(H{sub 2}), to the subspacesmore » H{sub 1}, H{sub 2}. As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities.« less

  10. Remarks on the Phase Transition in QCD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilczek, Frank

    The significance of the question of the order of the phase transition in QCD, and recent evidence that real-world QCD is probably close to having a single second order transition as a function of temperature, is reviewed. Although this circumstance seems to remove the possibility that the QCD transition during the big bang might have had spectacular cosmological consequences, there is some good news: it allows highly non-trivial yet reliable quantitative predictions to be made for the behavior near the transition. These predictions can be tested in numerical simulations and perhaps even eventually in heavy ion collisions. The present paper is a very elementary discussion of the relevant concepts, meant to be an accessible introduction for those innocent of the renormalization group approach to critical phenomena and/or the details of QCD.

  11. Flight Experiment Verification of Shuttle Boundary Layer Transition Prediction Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berry, Scott A.; Berger, Karen T.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Wood, William A.

    2016-01-01

    Boundary layer transition at hypersonic conditions is critical to the design of future high-speed aircraft and spacecraft. Accurate methods to predict transition would directly impact the aerothermodynamic environments used to size a hypersonic vehicle's thermal protection system. A transition prediction tool, based on wind tunnel derived discrete roughness correlations, was developed and implemented for the Space Shuttle return-to-flight program. This tool was also used to design a boundary layer transition flight experiment in order to assess correlation uncertainties, particularly with regard to high Mach-number transition and tunnel-to-flight scaling. A review is provided of the results obtained from the flight experiment in order to evaluate the transition prediction tool implemented for the Shuttle program.

  12. Mining of high utility-probability sequential patterns from uncertain databases

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Binbin; Fournier-Viger, Philippe; Li, Ting

    2017-01-01

    High-utility sequential pattern mining (HUSPM) has become an important issue in the field of data mining. Several HUSPM algorithms have been designed to mine high-utility sequential patterns (HUPSPs). They have been applied in several real-life situations such as for consumer behavior analysis and event detection in sensor networks. Nonetheless, most studies on HUSPM have focused on mining HUPSPs in precise data. But in real-life, uncertainty is an important factor as data is collected using various types of sensors that are more or less accurate. Hence, data collected in a real-life database can be annotated with existing probabilities. This paper presents a novel pattern mining framework called high utility-probability sequential pattern mining (HUPSPM) for mining high utility-probability sequential patterns (HUPSPs) in uncertain sequence databases. A baseline algorithm with three optional pruning strategies is presented to mine HUPSPs. Moroever, to speed up the mining process, a projection mechanism is designed to create a database projection for each processed sequence, which is smaller than the original database. Thus, the number of unpromising candidates can be greatly reduced, as well as the execution time for mining HUPSPs. Substantial experiments both on real-life and synthetic datasets show that the designed algorithm performs well in terms of runtime, number of candidates, memory usage, and scalability for different minimum utility and minimum probability thresholds. PMID:28742847

  13. Changes in EEG activity and hypothalamic temperature as indices for non-REM sleep to REM sleep transitions.

    PubMed

    Capitani, Paolo; Cerri, Matteo; Amici, Roberto; Baracchi, Francesca; Jones, Christine Ann; Luppi, Marco; Perez, Emanuele; Parmeggiani, Pier Luigi; Zamboni, Giovanni

    A shift of physiological regulations from a homeostatic to a non-homeostatic modality characterizes the passage from non-NREM sleep (NREMS) to REM sleep (REMS). In the rat, an EEG index which allows the automatic scoring of transitions from NREMS to REMS has been proposed: the NREMS to REMS transition indicator value, NIV [J.H. Benington et al., Sleep 17 (1994) 28-36]. However, such transitions are not always followed by a REMS episode, but are often followed by an awakening. In the present study, the relationship between changes in EEG activity and hypothalamic temperature (Thy), taken as an index of autonomic activity, was studied within a window consisting of the 60s which precedes a state change from a consolidated NREMS episode. Furthermore, the probability that a transition would lead to REMS or wake was analysed. The results showed that, within this time window, both a modified NIV (NIV(60)) and the difference between Thy at the limits of the window (Thy(D)) were related to the probability of REMS onset. Both the relationship between the indices and the probability of REMS onset was sigmoid, the latter of which saturated at a probability level around 50-60%. The efficacy for the prediction of successful transitions from NREMS to REMS found using Thy(D) as an index supports the view that such a transition is a dynamic process where the physiological risk to enter REMS is weighted at a central level.

  14. Calibration of a γ- Re θ transition model and its application in low-speed flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, YunTao; Zhang, YuLun; Meng, DeHong; Wang, GunXue; Li, Song

    2014-12-01

    The prediction of laminar-turbulent transition in boundary layer is very important for obtaining accurate aerodynamic characteristics with computational fluid dynamic (CFD) tools, because laminar-turbulent transition is directly related to complex flow phenomena in boundary layer and separated flow in space. Unfortunately, the transition effect isn't included in today's major CFD tools because of non-local calculations in transition modeling. In this paper, Menter's γ- Re θ transition model is calibrated and incorporated into a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) code — Trisonic Platform (TRIP) developed in China Aerodynamic Research and Development Center (CARDC). Based on the experimental data of flat plate from the literature, the empirical correlations involved in the transition model are modified and calibrated numerically. Numerical simulation for low-speed flow of Trapezoidal Wing (Trap Wing) is performed and compared with the corresponding experimental data. It is indicated that the γ- Re θ transition model can accurately predict the location of separation-induced transition and natural transition in the flow region with moderate pressure gradient. The transition model effectively imporves the simulation accuracy of the boundary layer and aerodynamic characteristics.

  15. SQERTSS: Dynamic rank based throttling of transition probabilities in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danielson, Thomas; Sutton, Jonathan E.; Hin, Céline; Savara, Aditya

    2017-10-01

    Lattice based Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations offer a powerful simulation technique for investigating large reaction networks while retaining spatial configuration information, unlike ordinary differential equations. However, large chemical reaction networks can contain reaction processes with rates spanning multiple orders of magnitude. This can lead to the problem of "KMC stiffness" (similar to stiffness in differential equations), where the computational expense has the potential to be overwhelmed by very short time-steps during KMC simulations, with the simulation spending an inordinate amount of KMC steps/CPU time simulating fast frivolous processes (FFPs) without progressing the system (reaction network). In order to achieve simulation times that are experimentally relevant or desired for predictions, a dynamic throttling algorithm involving separation of the processes into speed-ranks based on event frequencies has been designed and implemented with the intent of decreasing the probability of FFP events, and increasing the probability of slow process events-allowing rate limiting events to become more likely to be observed in KMC simulations. This Staggered Quasi-Equilibrium Rank-based Throttling for Steady-state (SQERTSS) algorithm is designed for use in achieving and simulating steady-state conditions in KMC simulations. As shown in this work, the SQERTSS algorithm also works for transient conditions: the correct configuration space and final state will still be achieved if the required assumptions are not violated, with the caveat that the sizes of the time-steps may be distorted during the transient period.

  16. SQERTSS: Dynamic rank based throttling of transition probabilities in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

    DOE PAGES

    Danielson, Thomas; Sutton, Jonathan E.; Hin, Céline; ...

    2017-06-09

    Lattice based Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations offer a powerful simulation technique for investigating large reaction networks while retaining spatial configuration information, unlike ordinary differential equations. However, large chemical reaction networks can contain reaction processes with rates spanning multiple orders of magnitude. This can lead to the problem of “KMC stiffness” (similar to stiffness in differential equations), where the computational expense has the potential to be overwhelmed by very short time-steps during KMC simulations, with the simulation spending an inordinate amount of KMC steps / cpu-time simulating fast frivolous processes (FFPs) without progressing the system (reaction network). In order tomore » achieve simulation times that are experimentally relevant or desired for predictions, a dynamic throttling algorithm involving separation of the processes into speed-ranks based on event frequencies has been designed and implemented with the intent of decreasing the probability of FFP events, and increasing the probability of slow process events -- allowing rate limiting events to become more likely to be observed in KMC simulations. This Staggered Quasi-Equilibrium Rank-based Throttling for Steady-state (SQERTSS) algorithm designed for use in achieving and simulating steady-state conditions in KMC simulations. Lastly, as shown in this work, the SQERTSS algorithm also works for transient conditions: the correct configuration space and final state will still be achieved if the required assumptions are not violated, with the caveat that the sizes of the time-steps may be distorted during the transient period.« less

  17. Probability 1/e

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  18. Computer Simulation Results for the Two-Point Probability Function of Composite Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, P.; Torquato, S.

    1988-05-01

    Computer simulation results are reported for the two-point matrix probability function S2 of two-phase random media composed of disks distributed with an arbitrary degree of impenetrability λ. The novel technique employed to sample S2( r) (which gives the probability of finding the endpoints of a line segment of length r in the matrix) is very accurate and has a fast execution time. Results for the limiting cases λ = 0 (fully penetrable disks) and λ = 1 (hard disks), respectively, compare very favorably with theoretical predictions made by Torquato and Beasley and by Torquato and Lado. Results are also reported for several values of λ. that lie between these two extremes: cases which heretofore have not been examined.

  19. The Association of Trip Distance With Walking To Reach Public Transit: Data from the California Household Travel Survey.

    PubMed

    Durand, Casey P; Tang, Xiaohui; Gabriel, Kelley P; Sener, Ipek N; Oluyomi, Abiodun O; Knell, Gregory; Porter, Anna K; Oelscher, Deanna M; Kohl, Harold W

    2016-06-01

    Use of public transit is cited as a way to help individuals incorporate regular physical activity into their day. As a novel research topic, however, there is much we do not know. The aim of this analysis was to identify the correlation between distance to a transit stop and the probability it will be accessed by walking. We also sought to understand if this relation was moderated by trip, personal or household factors. Data from the 2012 California Household Travel Survey was used for this cross-sectional analysis. 2,573 individuals were included, representing 6,949 transit trips. Generalized estimating equations modeled the probability of actively accessing public transit as a function of distance from origin to transit stop, and multiple trip, personal and household variables. Analyses were conducted in 2014 and 2015. For each mile increase in distance from the point of origin to the transit stop, the probability of active access decreased by 12%. With other factors held equal, at two miles from a transit stop there is a 50% chance someone will walk to a stop versus non-active means. The distance-walking relation was modified by month the trips were taken. Individuals appear to be willing to walk further to reach transit than existing guidelines indicate. This implies that for any given transit stop, the zone of potential riders who will walk to reach transit is relatively large. Future research should clarify who transit-related walkers are, and why some are more willing to walk longer distances to transit than others.

  20. The Association of Trip Distance With Walking To Reach Public Transit: Data from the California Household Travel Survey

    PubMed Central

    Durand, Casey P.; Tang, Xiaohui; Gabriel, Kelley P.; Sener, Ipek N.; Oluyomi, Abiodun O.; Knell, Gregory; Porter, Anna K.; oelscher, Deanna M.; Kohl, Harold W.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Use of public transit is cited as a way to help individuals incorporate regular physical activity into their day. As a novel research topic, however, there is much we do not know. The aim of this analysis was to identify the correlation between distance to a transit stop and the probability it will be accessed by walking. We also sought to understand if this relation was moderated by trip, personal or household factors. Methods Data from the 2012 California Household Travel Survey was used for this cross-sectional analysis. 2,573 individuals were included, representing 6,949 transit trips. Generalized estimating equations modeled the probability of actively accessing public transit as a function of distance from origin to transit stop, and multiple trip, personal and household variables. Analyses were conducted in 2014 and 2015. Results For each mile increase in distance from the point of origin to the transit stop, the probability of active access decreased by 12%. With other factors held equal, at two miles from a transit stop there is a 50% chance someone will walk to a stop versus non-active means. The distance-walking relation was modified by month the trips were taken. Conclusions Individuals appear to be willing to walk further to reach transit than existing guidelines indicate. This implies that for any given transit stop, the zone of potential riders who will walk to reach transit is relatively large. Future research should clarify who transit-related walkers are, and why some are more willing to walk longer distances to transit than others. PMID:27429905

  1. DNA binding sites characterization by means of Rényi entropy measures on nucleotide transitions.

    PubMed

    Perera, Alexandre; Vallverdu, Montserrat; Claria, Francesc; Soria, José Manuel; Caminal, Pere

    2006-01-01

    In this work, parametric information-theory measures for the characterization of binding sites in DNA are extended with the use of transitional probabilities on the sequence. We propose the use of parametric uncertainty measure such as Renyi entropies obtained from the transition probabilities for the study of the binding sites, in addition to nucleotide frequency based Renyi measures. Results are reported in this manuscript comparing transition frequencies (i.e. dinucelotides) and base frequencies for Shannon and parametric Renyi for a number of binding sites found in E. Coli, lambda and T7 organisms. We observe that, for the evaluated datasets, the information provided by both approaches is not redundant, as they evolve differently under increasing Renyi orders.

  2. Probability based remaining capacity estimation using data-driven and neural network model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yujie; Yang, Duo; Zhang, Xu; Chen, Zonghai

    2016-05-01

    Since large numbers of lithium-ion batteries are composed in pack and the batteries are complex electrochemical devices, their monitoring and safety concerns are key issues for the applications of battery technology. An accurate estimation of battery remaining capacity is crucial for optimization of the vehicle control, preventing battery from over-charging and over-discharging and ensuring the safety during its service life. The remaining capacity estimation of a battery includes the estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) and state-of-energy (SOE). In this work, a probability based adaptive estimator is presented to obtain accurate and reliable estimation results for both SOC and SOE. For the SOC estimation, an n ordered RC equivalent circuit model is employed by combining an electrochemical model to obtain more accurate voltage prediction results. For the SOE estimation, a sliding window neural network model is proposed to investigate the relationship between the terminal voltage and the model inputs. To verify the accuracy and robustness of the proposed model and estimation algorithm, experiments under different dynamic operation current profiles are performed on the commercial 1665130-type lithium-ion batteries. The results illustrate that accurate and robust estimation can be obtained by the proposed method.

  3. Probability machines: consistent probability estimation using nonparametric learning machines.

    PubMed

    Malley, J D; Kruppa, J; Dasgupta, A; Malley, K G; Ziegler, A

    2012-01-01

    Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications.

  4. DNA binding site characterization by means of Rényi entropy measures on nucleotide transitions.

    PubMed

    Perera, A; Vallverdu, M; Claria, F; Soria, J M; Caminal, P

    2008-06-01

    In this work, parametric information-theory measures for the characterization of binding sites in DNA are extended with the use of transitional probabilities on the sequence. We propose the use of parametric uncertainty measures such as Rényi entropies obtained from the transition probabilities for the study of the binding sites, in addition to nucleotide frequency-based Rényi measures. Results are reported in this work comparing transition frequencies (i.e., dinucleotides) and base frequencies for Shannon and parametric Rényi entropies for a number of binding sites found in E. Coli, lambda and T7 organisms. We observe that the information provided by both approaches is not redundant. Furthermore, under the presence of noise in the binding site matrix we observe overall improved robustness of nucleotide transition-based algorithms when compared with nucleotide frequency-based method.

  5. ACCURATE SPECTROSCOPIC CHARACTERIZATION OF PROTONATED OXIRANE: A POTENTIAL PREBIOTIC SPECIES IN TITAN'S ATMOSPHERE.

    PubMed

    Puzzarini, Cristina; Ali, Ashraf; Biczysko, Malgorzata; Barone, Vincenzo

    2014-09-10

    An accurate spectroscopic characterization of protonated oxirane has been carried out by means of state-of-the-art computational methods and approaches. The calculated spectroscopic parameters from our recent computational investigation of oxirane together with the corresponding experimental data available were used to assess the accuracy of our predicted rotational and IR spectra of protonated oxirane. We found an accuracy of about 10 cm -1 for vibrational transitions (fundamentals as well as overtones and combination bands) and, in relative terms, of 0.1% for rotational transitions. We are therefore confident that the spectroscopic data provided herein are a valuable support for the detection of protonated oxirane not only in Titan's atmosphere but also in the interstellar medium.

  6. Bayesian probability analysis: a prospective demonstration of its clinical utility in diagnosing coronary disease

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Detrano, R.; Yiannikas, J.; Salcedo, E.E.

    One hundred fifty-four patients referred for coronary arteriography were prospectively studied with stress electrocardiography, stress thallium scintigraphy, cine fluoroscopy (for coronary calcifications), and coronary angiography. Pretest probabilities of coronary disease were determined based on age, sex, and type of chest pain. These and pooled literature values for the conditional probabilities of test results based on disease state were used in Bayes theorem to calculate posttest probabilities of disease. The results of the three noninvasive tests were compared for statistical independence, a necessary condition for their simultaneous use in Bayes theorem. The test results were found to demonstrate pairwise independence inmore » patients with and those without disease. Some dependencies that were observed between the test results and the clinical variables of age and sex were not sufficient to invalidate application of the theorem. Sixty-eight of the study patients had at least one major coronary artery obstruction of greater than 50%. When these patients were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-probability subgroups according to their pretest probabilities, noninvasive test results analyzed by Bayesian probability analysis appropriately advanced 17 of them by at least one probability subgroup while only seven were moved backward. Of the 76 patients without disease, 34 were appropriately moved into a lower probability subgroup while 10 were incorrectly moved up. We conclude that posttest probabilities calculated from Bayes theorem more accurately classified patients with and without disease than did pretest probabilities, thus demonstrating the utility of the theorem in this application.« less

  7. SU-D-18C-05: Variable Bolus Arterial Spin Labeling MRI for Accurate Cerebral Blood Flow and Arterial Transit Time Mapping

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Johnston, M; Jung, Y

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Arterial spin labeling (ASL) is an MRI perfusion imaging method from which quantitative cerebral blood flow (CBF) maps can be calculated. Acquisition with variable post-labeling delays (PLD) and variable TRs allows for arterial transit time (ATT) mapping and leads to more accurate CBF quantification with a scan time saving of 48%. In addition, T1 and M0 maps can be obtained without a separate scan. In order to accurately estimate ATT and T1 of brain tissue from the ASL data, variable labeling durations were invented, entitled variable-bolus ASL. Methods: All images were collected on a healthy subject with a 3Tmore » Siemens Skyra scanner. Variable-bolus Psuedo-continuous ASL (PCASL) images were collected with 7 TI times ranging 100-4300ms in increments of 700ms with TR ranging 1000-5200ms. All boluses were 1600ms when the TI allowed, otherwise the bolus duration was 100ms shorter than the TI. All TI times were interleaved to reduce sensitivity to motion. Voxel-wise T1 and M0 maps were estimated using a linear least squares fitting routine from the average singal from each TI time. Then pairwise subtraction of each label/control pair and averaging for each TI time was performed. CBF and ATT maps were created using the standard model by Buxton et al. with a nonlinear fitting routine using the T1 tissue map. Results: CBF maps insensitive to ATT were produced along with ATT maps. Both maps show patterns and averages consistent with literature. The T1 map also shows typical T1 contrast. Conclusion: It has been demonstrated that variablebolus ASL produces CBF maps free from the errors due to ATT and tissue T1 variations and provides M0, T1, and ATT maps which have potential utility. This is accomplished with a single scan in a feasible scan time (under 6 minutes) with low sensivity to motion.« less

  8. Anomalous structural transition of confined hard squares.

    PubMed

    Gurin, Péter; Varga, Szabolcs; Odriozola, Gerardo

    2016-11-01

    Structural transitions are examined in quasi-one-dimensional systems of freely rotating hard squares, which are confined between two parallel walls. We find two competing phases: one is a fluid where the squares have two sides parallel to the walls, while the second one is a solidlike structure with a zigzag arrangement of the squares. Using transfer matrix method we show that the configuration space consists of subspaces of fluidlike and solidlike phases, which are connected with low probability microstates of mixed structures. The existence of these connecting states makes the thermodynamic quantities continuous and precludes the possibility of a true phase transition. However, thermodynamic functions indicate strong tendency for the phase transition and our replica exchange Monte Carlo simulation study detects several important markers of the first order phase transition. The distinction of a phase transition from a structural change is practically impossible with simulations and experiments in such systems like the confined hard squares.

  9. Towards First Principles-Based Prediction of Highly Accurate Electrochemical Pourbaix Diagrams

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zeng, Zhenhua; Chan, Maria K. Y.; Zhao, Zhi-Jian

    2015-08-13

    Electrochemical potential/pH (Pourbaix) diagrams underpin many aqueous electrochemical processes and are central to the identification of stable phases of metals for processes ranging from electrocatalysis to corrosion. Even though standard DFT calculations are potentially powerful tools for the prediction of such diagrams, inherent errors in the description of transition metal (hydroxy)oxides, together with neglect of van der Waals interactions, have limited the reliability of such predictions for even the simplest pure metal bulk compounds, and corresponding predictions for more complex alloy or surface structures are even more challenging. In the present work, through synergistic use of a Hubbard U correction,more » a state-of-the-art dispersion correction, and a water-based bulk reference state for the calculations, these errors are systematically corrected. The approach describes the weak binding that occurs between hydroxyl-containing functional groups in certain compounds in Pourbaix diagrams, corrects for self-interaction errors in transition metal compounds, and reduces residual errors on oxygen atoms by preserving a consistent oxidation state between the reference state, water, and the relevant bulk phases. The strong performance is illustrated on a series of bulk transition metal (Mn, Fe, Co and Ni) hydroxides, oxyhydroxides, binary, and ternary oxides, where the corresponding thermodynamics of redox and (de)hydration are described with standard errors of 0.04 eV per (reaction) formula unit. The approach further preserves accurate descriptions of the overall thermodynamics of electrochemically-relevant bulk reactions, such as water formation, which is an essential condition for facilitating accurate analysis of reaction energies for electrochemical processes on surfaces. The overall generality and transferability of the scheme suggests that it may find useful application in the construction of a broad array of electrochemical phase diagrams, including

  10. Link importance incorporated failure probability measuring solution for multicast light-trees in elastic optical networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xin; Zhang, Lu; Tang, Ying; Huang, Shanguo

    2018-03-01

    The light-tree-based optical multicasting (LT-OM) scheme provides a spectrum- and energy-efficient method to accommodate emerging multicast services. Some studies focus on the survivability technologies for LTs against a fixed number of link failures, such as single-link failure. However, a few studies involve failure probability constraints when building LTs. It is worth noting that each link of an LT plays different important roles under failure scenarios. When calculating the failure probability of an LT, the importance of its every link should be considered. We design a link importance incorporated failure probability measuring solution (LIFPMS) for multicast LTs under independent failure model and shared risk link group failure model. Based on the LIFPMS, we put forward the minimum failure probability (MFP) problem for the LT-OM scheme. Heuristic approaches are developed to address the MFP problem in elastic optical networks. Numerical results show that the LIFPMS provides an accurate metric for calculating the failure probability of multicast LTs and enhances the reliability of the LT-OM scheme while accommodating multicast services.

  11. Genetic Algorithms and Nucleation in VIH-AIDS transition.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barranon, Armando

    2003-03-01

    VIH to AIDS transition has been modeled via a genetic algorithm that uses boom-boom principle and where population evolution is simulated with a cellular automaton based on SIR model. VIH to AIDS transition is signed by nucleation of infected cells and low probability of infection are obtained for different mutation rates in agreement with clinical results. A power law is obtained with a critical exponent close to the critical exponent of cubic, spherical percolation, colossal magnetic resonance, Ising Model and liquid-gas phase transition in heavy ion collisions. Computations were carried out at UAM-A Supercomputing Lab and author acknowledges financial support from Division of CBI at UAM-A.

  12. Jamming transitions induced by an attraction in pedestrian flow.

    PubMed

    Kwak, Jaeyoung; Jo, Hang-Hyun; Luttinen, Tapio; Kosonen, Iisakki

    2017-08-01

    We numerically study jamming transitions in pedestrian flow interacting with an attraction, mostly based on the social force model for pedestrians who can join the attraction. We formulate the joining probability as a function of social influence from others, reflecting that individual choice behavior is likely influenced by others. By controlling pedestrian influx and the social influence parameter, we identify various pedestrian flow patterns. For the bidirectional flow scenario, we observe a transition from the free flow phase to the freezing phase, in which oppositely walking pedestrians reach a complete stop and block each other. On the other hand, a different transition behavior appears in the unidirectional flow scenario, i.e., from the free flow phase to the localized jam phase and then to the extended jam phase. It is also observed that the extended jam phase can end up in freezing phenomena with a certain probability when pedestrian flux is high with strong social influence. This study highlights that attractive interactions between pedestrians and an attraction can trigger jamming transitions by increasing the number of conflicts among pedestrians near the attraction. In order to avoid excessive pedestrian jams, we suggest suppressing the number of conflicts under a certain level by moderating pedestrian influx especially when the social influence is strong.

  13. Jamming transitions induced by an attraction in pedestrian flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwak, Jaeyoung; Jo, Hang-Hyun; Luttinen, Tapio; Kosonen, Iisakki

    2017-08-01

    We numerically study jamming transitions in pedestrian flow interacting with an attraction, mostly based on the social force model for pedestrians who can join the attraction. We formulate the joining probability as a function of social influence from others, reflecting that individual choice behavior is likely influenced by others. By controlling pedestrian influx and the social influence parameter, we identify various pedestrian flow patterns. For the bidirectional flow scenario, we observe a transition from the free flow phase to the freezing phase, in which oppositely walking pedestrians reach a complete stop and block each other. On the other hand, a different transition behavior appears in the unidirectional flow scenario, i.e., from the free flow phase to the localized jam phase and then to the extended jam phase. It is also observed that the extended jam phase can end up in freezing phenomena with a certain probability when pedestrian flux is high with strong social influence. This study highlights that attractive interactions between pedestrians and an attraction can trigger jamming transitions by increasing the number of conflicts among pedestrians near the attraction. In order to avoid excessive pedestrian jams, we suggest suppressing the number of conflicts under a certain level by moderating pedestrian influx especially when the social influence is strong.

  14. Prediction of Rare Transitions in Planetary Atmosphere Dynamics Between Attractors with Different Number of Zonal Jets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouchet, F.; Laurie, J.; Zaboronski, O.

    2012-12-01

    We describe transitions between attractors with either one, two or more zonal jets in models of turbulent atmosphere dynamics. Those transitions are extremely rare, and occur over times scales of centuries or millennia. They are extremely hard to observe in direct numerical simulations, because they require on one hand an extremely good resolution in order to simulate accurately the turbulence and on the other hand simulations performed over an extremely long time. Those conditions are usually not met together in any realistic models. However many examples of transitions between turbulent attractors in geophysical flows are known to exist (paths of the Kuroshio, Earth's magnetic field reversal, atmospheric flows, and so on). Their study through numerical computations is inaccessible using conventional means. We present an alternative approach, based on instanton theory and large deviations. Instanton theory provides a way to compute (both numerically and theoretically) extremely rare transitions between turbulent attractors. This tool, developed in field theory, and justified in some cases through the large deviation theory in mathematics, can be applied to models of turbulent atmosphere dynamics. It provides both new theoretical insights and new type of numerical algorithms. Those algorithms can predict transition histories and transition rates using numerical simulations run over only hundreds of typical model dynamical time, which is several order of magnitude lower than the typical transition time. We illustrate the power of those tools in the framework of quasi-geostrophic models. We show regimes where two or more attractors coexist. Those attractors corresponds to turbulent flows dominated by either one or more zonal jets similar to midlatitude atmosphere jets. Among the trajectories connecting two non-equilibrium attractors, we determine the most probable ones. Moreover, we also determine the transition rates, which are several of magnitude larger than a

  15. Sleep Stage Transition Dynamics Reveal Specific Stage 2 Vulnerability in Insomnia.

    PubMed

    Wei, Yishul; Colombo, Michele A; Ramautar, Jennifer R; Blanken, Tessa F; van der Werf, Ysbrand D; Spiegelhalder, Kai; Feige, Bernd; Riemann, Dieter; Van Someren, Eus J W

    2017-09-01

    Objective sleep impairments in insomnia disorder (ID) are insufficiently understood. The present study evaluated whether whole-night sleep stage dynamics derived from polysomnography (PSG) differ between people with ID and matched controls and whether sleep stage dynamic features discriminate them better than conventional sleep parameters. Eighty-eight participants aged 21-70 years, including 46 with ID and 42 age- and sex-matched controls without sleep complaints, were recruited through www.sleepregistry.nl and completed two nights of laboratory PSG. Data of 100 people with ID and 100 age- and sex-matched controls from a previously reported study were used to validate the generalizability of findings. The second night was used to obtain, in addition to conventional sleep parameters, probabilities of transitions between stages and bout duration distributions of each stage. Group differences were evaluated with nonparametric tests. People with ID showed higher empirical probabilities to transition from stage N2 to the lighter sleep stage N1 or wakefulness and a faster decaying stage N2 bout survival function. The increased transition probability from stage N2 to stage N1 discriminated people with ID better than any of their deviations in conventional sleep parameters, including less total sleep time, less sleep efficiency, more stage N1, and more wake after sleep onset. Moreover, adding this transition probability significantly improved the discriminating power of a multiple logistic regression model based on conventional sleep parameters. Quantification of sleep stage dynamics revealed a particular vulnerability of stage N2 in insomnia. The feature characterizes insomnia better than-and independently of-any conventional sleep parameter. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. CellTrans: An R Package to Quantify Stochastic Cell State Transitions.

    PubMed

    Buder, Thomas; Deutsch, Andreas; Seifert, Michael; Voss-Böhme, Anja

    2017-01-01

    Many normal and cancerous cell lines exhibit a stable composition of cells in distinct states which can, e.g., be defined on the basis of cell surface markers. There is evidence that such an equilibrium is associated with stochastic transitions between distinct states. Quantifying these transitions has the potential to better understand cell lineage compositions. We introduce CellTrans, an R package to quantify stochastic cell state transitions from cell state proportion data from fluorescence-activated cell sorting and flow cytometry experiments. The R package is based on a mathematical model in which cell state alterations occur due to stochastic transitions between distinct cell states whose rates only depend on the current state of a cell. CellTrans is an automated tool for estimating the underlying transition probabilities from appropriately prepared data. We point out potential analytical challenges in the quantification of these cell transitions and explain how CellTrans handles them. The applicability of CellTrans is demonstrated on publicly available data on the evolution of cell state compositions in cancer cell lines. We show that CellTrans can be used to (1) infer the transition probabilities between different cell states, (2) predict cell line compositions at a certain time, (3) predict equilibrium cell state compositions, and (4) estimate the time needed to reach this equilibrium. We provide an implementation of CellTrans in R, freely available via GitHub (https://github.com/tbuder/CellTrans).

  17. Electric dipole transitions for four-times ionized cerium (Ce V)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Usta, Betül Karaçoban, E-mail: bkaracoban@sakarya.edu.tr; Akgün, Elif, E-mail: elif.akgun@ogr.sakarya.edu.tr; Alparslan, Büşra, E-mail: busra.alparslan1@ogr.sakarya.edu.tr

    2016-03-25

    We have calculated the transition parameters, such as wavelengths, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities (or rates), for the electric dipole (E1) transitions in four-times ionized cerium (Ce V, Z = 58) by using the multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock method within the framework of Breit-Pauli (MCHF+BP) relativistic corrections and the relativistic Hartree-Fock (HFR) method. The obtained results have been compared with other works available in literature. A discussion of these calculations for Ce V in this study has also been in view of the MCHF+BP and HFR methods.

  18. Transitions in a genetic transcriptional regulatory system under Lévy motion

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Yayun; Serdukova, Larissa; Duan, Jinqiao; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Based on a stochastic differential equation model for a single genetic regulatory system, we examine the dynamical effects of noisy fluctuations, arising in the synthesis reaction, on the evolution of the transcription factor activator in terms of its concentration. The fluctuations are modeled by Brownian motion and α-stable Lévy motion. Two deterministic quantities, the mean first exit time (MFET) and the first escape probability (FEP), are used to analyse the transitions from the low to high concentration states. A shorter MFET or higher FEP in the low concentration region facilitates such a transition. We have observed that higher noise intensities and larger jumps of the Lévy motion shortens the MFET and thus benefits transitions. The Lévy motion activates a transition from the low concentration region to the non-adjacent high concentration region, while Brownian motion can not induce this phenomenon. There are optimal proportions of Gaussian and non-Gaussian noises, which maximise the quantities MFET and FEP for each concentration, when the total sum of noise intensities are kept constant. Because a weaker stability indicates a higher transition probability, a new geometric concept is introduced to quantify the basin stability of the low concentration region, characterised by the escaping behaviour. PMID:27411445

  19. An accurate and efficient reliability-based design optimization using the second order reliability method and improved stability transformation method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Zeng; Yang, Dixiong; Zhou, Huanlin; Yu, Bo

    2018-05-01

    The first order reliability method has been extensively adopted for reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), but it shows inaccuracy in calculating the failure probability with highly nonlinear performance functions. Thus, the second order reliability method is required to evaluate the reliability accurately. However, its application for RBDO is quite challenge owing to the expensive computational cost incurred by the repeated reliability evaluation and Hessian calculation of probabilistic constraints. In this article, a new improved stability transformation method is proposed to search the most probable point efficiently, and the Hessian matrix is calculated by the symmetric rank-one update. The computational capability of the proposed method is illustrated and compared to the existing RBDO approaches through three mathematical and two engineering examples. The comparison results indicate that the proposed method is very efficient and accurate, providing an alternative tool for RBDO of engineering structures.

  20. Transition and duration in disability: New evidence from administrative data.

    PubMed

    Lopez Casasnovas, Guillem; Nicodemo, Catia

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades demographic changes (low fertility rates, increased life expectancy…) in most OECD countries, have brought profound changes in the population pyramid, with several effects in the welfare of society. One of them is the increase in the number of people with disabilities, since age is a determining factor in the emergence of this dependency. This paper studies the probability to enter and transit in and from a disability state, as well as its associated mortality, by attending to the distinction between the initial disability level and the process that leads on from it, and by addressing whether and how education, age and income affect this transition. Applying a Markov model and a survival analysis to new Spanish administrative data set (Muestra Continua de Vida Laboral (MCVL)) we estimate the probability that a person changes the state of disability and the duration of her progression in each case. We find that people with an initial state of disability have a higher propensity to change status and take less time to transit amongst different stages than those who have no disability. Men do so more frequently than women and income have negative effects on the transition. These results may help to incorporate into welfare programs some protection mechanisms for delaying transitions and target the most fragile population groups. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Objective Lightning Probability Forecasts for East-Central Florida Airports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, Winfred C.

    2013-01-01

    The forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL, (NWS MLB) identified a need to make more accurate lightning forecasts to help alleviate delays due to thunderstorms in the vicinity of several commercial airports in central Florida at which they are responsible for issuing terminal aerodrome forecasts. Such forecasts would also provide safer ground operations around terminals, and would be of value to Center Weather Service Units serving air traffic controllers in Florida. To improve the forecast, the AMU was tasked to develop an objective lightning probability forecast tool for the airports using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The resulting forecast tool is similar to that developed by the AMU to support space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for use by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in previous tasks (Lambert and Wheeler 2005, Lambert 2007). The lightning probability forecasts are valid for the time periods and areas needed by the NWS MLB forecasters in the warm season months, defined in this task as May-September.

  2. Accurate deuterium spectroscopy for fundamental studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wcisło, P.; Thibault, F.; Zaborowski, M.; Wójtewicz, S.; Cygan, A.; Kowzan, G.; Masłowski, P.; Komasa, J.; Puchalski, M.; Pachucki, K.; Ciuryło, R.; Lisak, D.

    2018-07-01

    We present an accurate measurement of the weak quadrupole S(2) 2-0 line in self-perturbed D2 and theoretical ab initio calculations of both collisional line-shape effects and energy of this rovibrational transition. The spectra were collected at the 247-984 Torr pressure range with a frequency-stabilized cavity ring-down spectrometer linked to an optical frequency comb (OFC) referenced to a primary time standard. Our line-shape modeling employed quantum calculations of molecular scattering (the pressure broadening and shift and their speed dependencies were calculated, while the complex frequency of optical velocity-changing collisions was fitted to experimental spectra). The velocity-changing collisions are handled with the hard-sphere collisional kernel. The experimental and theoretical pressure broadening and shift are consistent within 5% and 27%, respectively (the discrepancy for shift is 8% when referred not to the speed averaged value, which is close to zero, but to the range of variability of the speed-dependent shift). We use our high pressure measurement to determine the energy, ν0, of the S(2) 2-0 transition. The ab initio line-shape calculations allowed us to mitigate the expected collisional systematics reaching the 410 kHz accuracy of ν0. We report theoretical determination of ν0 taking into account relativistic and QED corrections up to α5. Our estimation of the accuracy of the theoretical ν0 is 1.3 MHz. We observe 3.4σ discrepancy between experimental and theoretical ν0.

  3. Marginalizing Instrument Systematics in HST WFC3 Transit Light Curves

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wakeford, H. R.; Sing, D.K.; Deming, D.; Mandell, A.

    2016-01-01

    Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) infrared observations at 1.1-1.7 microns probe primarily the H2O absorption band at 1.4 microns, and have provided low-resolution transmission spectra for a wide range of exoplanets. We present the application of marginalization based on Gibson to analyze exoplanet transit light curves obtained from HST WFC3 to better determine important transit parameters such as "ramp" probability (R (sub p)) divided by "ramp" total (R (sub asterisk)), which are important for accurate detections of H2O. We approximate the evidence, often referred to as the marginal likelihood, for a grid of systematic models using the Akaike Information Criterion. We then calculate the evidence-based weight assigned to each systematic model and use the information from all tested models to calculate the final marginalized transit parameters for both the band-integrated and spectroscopic light curves to construct the transmission spectrum. We find that a majority of the highest weight models contain a correction for a linear trend in time as well as corrections related to HST orbital phase. We additionally test the dependence on the shift in spectral wavelength position over the course of the observations and find that spectroscopic wavelength shifts delta (sub lambda) times lambda) best describe the associated systematic in the spectroscopic light curves for most targets while fast scan rate observations of bright targets require an additional level of processing to produce a robust transmission spectrum. The use of marginalization allows for transparent interpretation and understanding of the instrument and the impact of each systematic evaluated statistically for each data set, expanding the ability to make true and comprehensive comparisons between exoplanet atmospheres.

  4. Probability distributions for Markov chain based quantum walks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balu, Radhakrishnan; Liu, Chaobin; Venegas-Andraca, Salvador E.

    2018-01-01

    We analyze the probability distributions of the quantum walks induced from Markov chains by Szegedy (2004). The first part of this paper is devoted to the quantum walks induced from finite state Markov chains. It is shown that the probability distribution on the states of the underlying Markov chain is always convergent in the Cesaro sense. In particular, we deduce that the limiting distribution is uniform if the transition matrix is symmetric. In the case of a non-symmetric Markov chain, we exemplify that the limiting distribution of the quantum walk is not necessarily identical with the stationary distribution of the underlying irreducible Markov chain. The Szegedy scheme can be extended to infinite state Markov chains (random walks). In the second part, we formulate the quantum walk induced from a lazy random walk on the line. We then obtain the weak limit of the quantum walk. It is noted that the current quantum walk appears to spread faster than its counterpart-quantum walk on the line driven by the Grover coin discussed in literature. The paper closes with an outlook on possible future directions.

  5. Multifractal analysis with the probability density function at the three-dimensional anderson transition.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Alberto; Vasquez, Louella J; Römer, Rudolf A

    2009-03-13

    The probability density function (PDF) for critical wave function amplitudes is studied in the three-dimensional Anderson model. We present a formal expression between the PDF and the multifractal spectrum f(alpha) in which the role of finite-size corrections is properly analyzed. We show the non-Gaussian nature and the existence of a symmetry relation in the PDF. From the PDF, we extract information about f(alpha) at criticality such as the presence of negative fractal dimensions and the possible existence of termination points. A PDF-based multifractal analysis is shown to be a valid alternative to the standard approach based on the scaling of inverse participation ratios.

  6. Estimating Model Probabilities using Thermodynamic Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, M.; Liu, P.; Beerli, P.; Lu, D.; Hill, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used to evaluate model probability for quantifying model uncertainty. In a general procedure, MCMC simulations are first conducted for each individual model, and MCMC parameter samples are then used to approximate marginal likelihood of the model by calculating the geometric mean of the joint likelihood of the model and its parameters. It has been found the method of evaluating geometric mean suffers from the numerical problem of low convergence rate. A simple test case shows that even millions of MCMC samples are insufficient to yield accurate estimation of the marginal likelihood. To resolve this problem, a thermodynamic method is used to have multiple MCMC runs with different values of a heating coefficient between zero and one. When the heating coefficient is zero, the MCMC run is equivalent to a random walk MC in the prior parameter space; when the heating coefficient is one, the MCMC run is the conventional one. For a simple case with analytical form of the marginal likelihood, the thermodynamic method yields more accurate estimate than the method of using geometric mean. This is also demonstrated for a case of groundwater modeling with consideration of four alternative models postulated based on different conceptualization of a confining layer. This groundwater example shows that model probabilities estimated using the thermodynamic method are more reasonable than those obtained using the geometric method. The thermodynamic method is general, and can be used for a wide range of environmental problem for model uncertainty quantification.

  7. A stress-induced phase transition model for semi-crystallize shape memory polymer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Xiaogang; Zhou, Bo; Liu, Liwu; Liu, Yanju; Leng, Jinsong

    2014-03-01

    The developments of constitutive models for shape memory polymer (SMP) have been motivated by its increasing applications. During cooling or heating process, the phase transition which is a continuous time-dependent process happens in semi-crystallize SMP and the various individual phases form at different temperature and in different configuration. Then, the transformation between these phases occurred and shape memory effect will emerge. In addition, stress applied on SMP is an important factor for crystal melting during phase transition. In this theory, an ideal phase transition model considering stress or pre-strain is the key to describe the behaviors of shape memory effect. So a normal distributed model was established in this research to characterize the volume fraction of each phase in SMP during phase transition. Generally, the experiment results are partly backward (in heating process) or forward (in cooling process) compared with the ideal situation considering delay effect during phase transition. So, a correction on the normal distributed model is needed. Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship between stress and phase transition temperature Tg is also taken into account for establishing an accurately normal distributed phase transition model. Finally, the constitutive model which taking the stress as an influence factor on phase transition was also established. Compared with the other expressions, this new-type model possesses less parameter and is more accurate. For the sake of verifying the rationality and accuracy of new phase transition and constitutive model, the comparisons between the simulated and experimental results were carried out.

  8. Evaluation of the photoionization probability of H2+ by the trajectory semiclassical method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arkhipov, D. N.; Astashkevich, S. A.; Mityureva, A. A.; Smirnov, V. V.

    2018-07-01

    The trajectory-based method for calculating the probabilities of transitions in the quantum system developed in our previous works and tested for atoms is applied to calculating the photoionization probability for the simplest molecule - hydrogen molecular ion. In a weak field it is established a good agreement between our photoionization cross section and the data obtained by other theoretical methods for photon energy in the range from one-photon ionization threshold up to 25 a.u. Photoionization cross section in the range 25 < ω ≤ 100 a.u. was calculated for the first time judging by the literature known to us. It is also confirmed that the trajectory method works in a wide range of the field magnitudes including superatomic values up to relativistic intensity.

  9. Radiative Rates for Forbidden Transitions in Doubly-Ionized Fe-Peak Elements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fivet, Vanessa; Quinet, P.; Bautista, M.

    2012-05-01

    Accurate and reliable atomic data for lowly-ionized Fe-peak species (Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni and Cu) are of paramount importance for the analysis of the high resolution astrophysical spectra currently available. The third spectra of several iron group elements have been observed in different galactic sources like Herbig-Haro objects in the Orion Nebula [1] and stars like Eta Carinae [2]. However, forbidden transitions between low-lying metastable levels of doubly-ionized iron-peak ions have been very little investigated so far and radiative rates for those lines remain sparse or inexistent. We are carrying out a systematic study of the electronic structure of doubly-ionized iron-peak elements. The magnetic dipole (M1) and electric quadrupole (E2) transition probabilities are computed using the pseudo-relativistic Hartree-Fock (HFR) code of Cowan [3] and the central Thomas-Fermi-Dirac potential approximation implemented in AUTOSTRUCTURE [4]. This multi-platform approach allows for consistency checks and intercomparison and has proven very successful in the study of the complex Fe-peak species where many different effects contribute [5]. References [1] A. Mesa-Delgado et al., MNRAS 395 (2009) 855 [2] S. Johansson et al., A&A 361 (2000) 977 [3] R.D. Cowan, The Theory of Atomic Structure and Spectra, Berkeley: Univ. California Press (1981) [4] N.R. Badnell, J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 30 (1997) 1 [5] M. Bautista et al., ApJ 718 (2010) L189

  10. Reliability of the Most-Probable-Number Technique for Enumerating Rhizobia in Tropical Soils †

    PubMed Central

    Woomer, Paul L.; Singleton, Paul W.; Bohlool, B. Ben

    1988-01-01

    We used six rhizobium-legume systems to test the reliability of the most-probable-number (MPN) technique for enumerating rhizobia introduced into 14 sites representing four soil orders. The range-of-transition values (the number of dilution steps between the first not-entirely-positive and the last not-entirely-negative growth units) were compared for each species and for each soil. The probability that the observed data were significantly different from theoretical values varied with the species. The acceptability of MPN codes (P > 0.99) was the highest (97 to 99%) with Vicia sativa, Trifolium repens, and Glycine max and lowest (72%) with Leucaena leucocephala. Medicago sativa and Macroptilium atropurpureum yielded 87 and 75% acceptable MPN codes, respectively. The acceptability of the MPN data obtained for a host species was related to rooting habit and time to nodulation. Comparison of data for each soil indicated that, despite large differences in characteristics, the soil was not a major source of variability in the MPN counts. There was no significant interaction of the range of transition of rhizobium-legume plant infection count data between species and site. PMID:16347661

  11. Accurate recapture identification for genetic mark–recapture studies with error-tolerant likelihood-based match calling and sample clustering

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sethi, Suresh; Linden, Daniel; Wenburg, John; Lewis, Cara; Lemons, Patrick R.; Fuller, Angela K.; Hare, Matthew P.

    2016-01-01

    Error-tolerant likelihood-based match calling presents a promising technique to accurately identify recapture events in genetic mark–recapture studies by combining probabilities of latent genotypes and probabilities of observed genotypes, which may contain genotyping errors. Combined with clustering algorithms to group samples into sets of recaptures based upon pairwise match calls, these tools can be used to reconstruct accurate capture histories for mark–recapture modelling. Here, we assess the performance of a recently introduced error-tolerant likelihood-based match-calling model and sample clustering algorithm for genetic mark–recapture studies. We assessed both biallelic (i.e. single nucleotide polymorphisms; SNP) and multiallelic (i.e. microsatellite; MSAT) markers using a combination of simulation analyses and case study data on Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) and fishers (Pekania pennanti). A novel two-stage clustering approach is demonstrated for genetic mark–recapture applications. First, repeat captures within a sampling occasion are identified. Subsequently, recaptures across sampling occasions are identified. The likelihood-based matching protocol performed well in simulation trials, demonstrating utility for use in a wide range of genetic mark–recapture studies. Moderately sized SNP (64+) and MSAT (10–15) panels produced accurate match calls for recaptures and accurate non-match calls for samples from closely related individuals in the face of low to moderate genotyping error. Furthermore, matching performance remained stable or increased as the number of genetic markers increased, genotyping error notwithstanding.

  12. Spectroscopic analysis of transition state energy levels - Bending-rotational spectrum and lifetime analysis of H3 quasibound states

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhao, Meishan; Mladenovic, Mirjana; Truhlar, Donald G.; Schwenke, David W.; Sharafeddin, Omar

    1989-01-01

    Converged quantum mechanical calculations of scattering matrices and transition probabilities are reported for the reaction of H with H2 with total angular momentum 0, 1, and 4 as functions of total energy in the range 0.85-1.15 eV on an accurate potential energy surface. The resonance structure is illustrated with Argand diagrams. State-to-state reactive collision delay times and lifetimes are presented. For J = 0, 1, and 4, the lowest-energy H3 resonance is at total energies of 0.983, 0.985, and 1.01 eV, respectively, with lifetimes of about 16-17 fs. For J = 1 and 4 there is a higher-energy resonance at 1.10-1.11 eV. For J = 1 the lifetime is about 4 fs and for J = 4 it is about 1 fs.

  13. An efficient General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) enabled algorithm for dynamic transit accessibility analysis.

    PubMed

    Fayyaz S, S Kiavash; Liu, Xiaoyue Cathy; Zhang, Guohui

    2017-01-01

    The social functions of urbanized areas are highly dependent on and supported by the convenient access to public transportation systems, particularly for the less privileged populations who have restrained auto ownership. To accurately evaluate the public transit accessibility, it is critical to capture the spatiotemporal variation of transit services. This can be achieved by measuring the shortest paths or minimum travel time between origin-destination (OD) pairs at each time-of-day (e.g. every minute). In recent years, General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) data has been gaining popularity for between-station travel time estimation due to its interoperability in spatiotemporal analytics. Many software packages, such as ArcGIS, have developed toolbox to enable the travel time estimation with GTFS. They perform reasonably well in calculating travel time between OD pairs for a specific time-of-day (e.g. 8:00 AM), yet can become computational inefficient and unpractical with the increase of data dimensions (e.g. all times-of-day and large network). In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm that is computationally elegant and mathematically efficient to address this issue. An open-source toolbox written in C++ is developed to implement the algorithm. We implemented the algorithm on City of St. George's transit network to showcase the accessibility analysis enabled by the toolbox. The experimental evidence shows significant reduction on computational time. The proposed algorithm and toolbox presented is easily transferable to other transit networks to allow transit agencies and researchers perform high resolution transit performance analysis.

  14. An efficient General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) enabled algorithm for dynamic transit accessibility analysis

    PubMed Central

    Fayyaz S., S. Kiavash; Zhang, Guohui

    2017-01-01

    The social functions of urbanized areas are highly dependent on and supported by the convenient access to public transportation systems, particularly for the less privileged populations who have restrained auto ownership. To accurately evaluate the public transit accessibility, it is critical to capture the spatiotemporal variation of transit services. This can be achieved by measuring the shortest paths or minimum travel time between origin-destination (OD) pairs at each time-of-day (e.g. every minute). In recent years, General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) data has been gaining popularity for between-station travel time estimation due to its interoperability in spatiotemporal analytics. Many software packages, such as ArcGIS, have developed toolbox to enable the travel time estimation with GTFS. They perform reasonably well in calculating travel time between OD pairs for a specific time-of-day (e.g. 8:00 AM), yet can become computational inefficient and unpractical with the increase of data dimensions (e.g. all times-of-day and large network). In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm that is computationally elegant and mathematically efficient to address this issue. An open-source toolbox written in C++ is developed to implement the algorithm. We implemented the algorithm on City of St. George’s transit network to showcase the accessibility analysis enabled by the toolbox. The experimental evidence shows significant reduction on computational time. The proposed algorithm and toolbox presented is easily transferable to other transit networks to allow transit agencies and researchers perform high resolution transit performance analysis. PMID:28981544

  15. Accurate identification of layer number for few-layer WS2 and WSe2 via spectroscopic study.

    PubMed

    Li, Yuanzheng; Li, Xinshu; Yu, Tong; Yang, Guochun; Chen, Heyu; Zhang, Cen; Feng, Qiushi; Ma, Jiangang; Liu, Weizhen; Xu, Haiyang; Liu, Yichun; Liu, Xinfeng

    2018-03-23

    Transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) with a typical layered structure are highly sensitive to their layer number in optical and electronic properties. Seeking a simple and effective method for layer number identification is very important to low-dimensional TMD samples. Herein, a rapid and accurate layer number identification of few-layer WS 2 and WSe 2 is proposed via locking their photoluminescence (PL) peak-positions. As the layer number of WS 2 /WSe 2 increases, it is found that indirect transition emission is more thickness-sensitive than direct transition emission, and the PL peak-position differences between the indirect and direct transitions can be regarded as fingerprints to identify their layer number. Theoretical calculation confirms that the notable thickness-sensitivity of indirect transition derives from the variations of electron density of states of W atom d-orbitals and chalcogen atom p-orbitals. Besides, the PL peak-position differences between the indirect and direct transitions are almost independent of different insulating substrates. This work not only proposes a new method for layer number identification via PL studies, but also provides a valuable insight into the thickness-dependent optical and electronic properties of W-based TMDs.

  16. TRANSITING THE SUN. II. THE IMPACT OF STELLAR ACTIVITY ON Lyα TRANSITS

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Llama, J.; Shkolnik, E. L., E-mail: joe.llama@lowell.edu

    High-energy observations of the Sun provide an opportunity to test the limits of our ability to accurately measure the properties of transiting exoplanets in the presence of stellar activity. Here we insert the transit of a hot Jupiter into continuous disk integrated data of the Sun in Lyα from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory/EVE instrument to assess the impact of stellar activity on the measured planet-to-star radius ratio (R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆}). In 75% of our simulated light curves, we measure the correct radius ratio; however, incorrect values can be measured if there is significant short-term variability in the light curve. Themore » maximum measured value of R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆} is 50% larger than the input value, which is much smaller than the large Lyα transit depths that have been reported in the literature, suggesting that for stars with activity levels comparable to the Sun, stellar activity alone cannot account for these deep transits. We ran simulations without a transit and found that stellar activity cannot mimic the Lyα transit of 55 Cancari b, strengthening the conclusion that this planet has a partially transiting exopshere. We were able to compare our simulations to more active stars by artificially increasing the variability in the Solar Lyα light curve. In the higher variability data, the largest value of R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆} we measured is <3× the input value, which again is not large enough to reproduce the Lyα transit depth reported for the more active stars HD 189733 and GJ 436, supporting the interpretation that these planets have extended atmospheres and possible cometary tails.« less

  17. The Spitzer search for the transits of HARPS low-mass planets. II. Null results for 19 planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillon, M.; Demory, B.-O.; Lovis, C.; Deming, D.; Ehrenreich, D.; Lo Curto, G.; Mayor, M.; Pepe, F.; Queloz, D.; Seager, S.; Ségransan, D.; Udry, S.

    2017-05-01

    Short-period super-Earths and Neptunes are now known to be very frequent around solar-type stars. Improving our understanding of these mysterious planets requires the detection of a significant sample of objects suitable for detailed characterization. Searching for the transits of the low-mass planets detected by Doppler surveys is a straightforward way to achieve this goal. Indeed, Doppler surveys target the most nearby main-sequence stars, they regularly detect close-in low-mass planets with significant transit probability, and their radial velocity data constrain strongly the ephemeris of possible transits. In this context, we initiated in 2010 an ambitious Spitzer multi-Cycle transit search project that targeted 25 low-mass planets detected by radial velocity, focusing mainly on the shortest-period planets detected by the HARPS spectrograph. We report here null results for 19 targets of the project. For 16 planets out of 19, a transiting configuration is strongly disfavored or firmly rejected by our data for most planetary compositions. We derive a posterior probability of 83% that none of the probed 19 planets transits (for a prior probability of 22%), which still leaves a significant probability of 17% that at least one of them does transit. Globally, our Spitzer project revealed or confirmed transits for three of its 25 targeted planets, and discarded or disfavored the transiting nature of 20 of them. Our light curves demonstrate for Warm Spitzer excellent photometric precisions: for 14 targets out of 19, we were able to reach standard deviations that were better than 50 ppm per 30 min intervals. Combined with its Earth-trailing orbit, which makes it capable of pointing any star in the sky and to monitor it continuously for days, this work confirms Spitzer as an optimal instrument to detect sub-mmag-deep transits on the bright nearby stars targeted by Doppler surveys. The photometric and radial velocity time series used in this work are only available at the

  18. Measurement of Plutonium-240 Angular Momentum Dependent Fission Probabilities Using the Alpha-Alpha' Reaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koglin, Johnathon

    Accurate nuclear reaction data from a few keV to tens of MeV and across the table of nuclides is essential to a number of applications of nuclear physics, including national security, nuclear forensics, nuclear astrophysics, and nuclear energy. Precise determination of (n, f) and neutron capture cross sections for reactions in high- ux environments are particularly important for a proper understanding of nuclear reactor performance and stellar nucleosynthesis. In these extreme environments reactions on short-lived and otherwise difficult-to-produce isotopes play a significant role in system evolution and provide insights into the types of nuclear processes taking place; a detailed understanding of these processes is necessary to properly determine cross sections far from stability. Indirect methods are often attempted to measure cross sections on isotopes that are difficult to separate in a laboratory setting. Using the surrogate approach, the same compound nucleus from the reaction of interest is created through a "surrogate" reaction on a different isotope and the resulting decay is measured. This result is combined with appropriate reaction theory for compound nucleus population, from which the desired cross sections can be inferred. This method has shown promise, but the theoretical framework often lacks necessary experimental data to constrain models. In this work, dual arrays of silicon telescope particle identification detectors and photovoltaic (solar) cell fission fragment detectors have been used to measure the fission probability of the 240Pu(alpha, alpha'f) reaction - a surrogate for the 239Pu(n, f) - and fission of 35.9(2)MeV at eleven scattering angles from 40° to 140° in 10° intervals and at nuclear excitation energies up to 16MeV. Within experimental uncertainty, the maximum fission probability was observed at the neutron separation energy for each alpha scattering angle. Fission probabilities were separated into five 500 keV bins from 5:5MeV to

  19. Sudden transition and sudden change from open spin environments

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hu, Zheng-Da; School of Science, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122; Xu, Jing-Bo, E-mail: xujb@zju.edu.cn

    2014-11-15

    We investigate the necessary conditions for the existence of sudden transition or sudden change phenomenon for appropriate initial states under dephasing. As illustrative examples, we study the behaviors of quantum correlation dynamics of two noninteracting qubits in independent and common open spin environments, respectively. For the independent environments case, we find that the quantum correlation dynamics is closely related to the Loschmidt echo and the dynamics exhibits a sudden transition from classical to quantum correlation decay. It is also shown that the sudden change phenomenon may occur for the common environment case and stationary quantum discord is found at themore » high temperature region of the environment. Finally, we investigate the quantum criticality of the open spin environment by exploring the probability distribution of the Loschmidt echo and the scaling transformation behavior of quantum discord, respectively. - Highlights: • Sudden transition or sudden change from open spin baths are studied. • Quantum discord is related to the Loschmidt echo in independent open spin baths. • Steady quantum discord is found in a common open spin bath. • The probability distribution of the Loschmidt echo is analyzed. • The scaling transformation behavior of quantum discord is displayed.« less

  20. Oscillator strengths and branching fractions of 4d75p-4d75s Rh II transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouazza, Safa

    2017-01-01

    This work reports semi-empirical determination of oscillator strengths, transition probabilities and branching fractions for Rh II 4d75p-4d75s transitions in a wide wavelength range. The angular coefficients of the transition matrix, beforehand obtained in pure SL coupling with help of Racah algebra are transformed into intermediate coupling using eigenvector amplitudes of these two configuration levels determined for this purpose; The transition integral was treated as free parameter in the least squares fit to experimental oscillator strength (gf) values found in literature. The extracted value: <4d75s|r1|4d75p> =2.7426 ± 0.0007 is slightly smaller than that computed by means of ab-initio method. Subsequently to oscillator strength evaluations, transition probabilities and branching fractions were deduced and compared to those obtained experimentally or through another approach like pseudo-relativistic Hartree-Fock model including core-polarization effects.

  1. Multielectron transitions in x-ray absorption of krypton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Yoshiaki; Nakamatsu, Hirohide; Mukoyama, Takeshi; Omote, Kazuhiko; Yoshikado, Shinzo; Takahashi, Masao; Emura, Shuichi

    1992-11-01

    The photoabsorption cross section near the K edge in krypton gas has been measured using synchro- tron radiation. Several features for simultaneous multielectron excitations were detected and analyzed by the use of the shakeup and shakeoff probabilities and their dependence on the photon energy. Previous observations of the [1s3p], [1s3d], and [1s4p] transitions have been confirmed. A transition is found between [1s3p] and [1s3d] multiple excitations and identified as a three-electron excitation [1s3d4p].

  2. Continuation of probability density functions using a generalized Lyapunov approach

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Baars, S., E-mail: s.baars@rug.nl; Viebahn, J.P., E-mail: viebahn@cwi.nl; Mulder, T.E., E-mail: t.e.mulder@uu.nl

    Techniques from numerical bifurcation theory are very useful to study transitions between steady fluid flow patterns and the instabilities involved. Here, we provide computational methodology to use parameter continuation in determining probability density functions of systems of stochastic partial differential equations near fixed points, under a small noise approximation. Key innovation is the efficient solution of a generalized Lyapunov equation using an iterative method involving low-rank approximations. We apply and illustrate the capabilities of the method using a problem in physical oceanography, i.e. the occurrence of multiple steady states of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

  3. The application of intraoperative transit time flow measurement to accurately assess anastomotic quality in sequential vein grafting

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Yang; Zhang, Fan; Gao, Ming-Xin; Li, Hai-Tao; Li, Jing-Xing; Song, Wei; Huang, Xin-Sheng; Gu, Cheng-Xiong

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES Intraoperative transit time flow measurement (TTFM) is widely used to assess anastomotic quality in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). However, in sequential vein grafting, the flow characteristics collected by the conventional TTFM method are usually associated with total graft flow and might not accurately indicate the quality of every distal anastomosis in a sequential graft. The purpose of our study was to examine a new TTFM method that could assess the quality of each distal anastomosis in a sequential graft more reliably than the conventional TTFM approach. METHODS Two TTFM methods were tested in 84 patients who underwent sequential saphenous off-pump CABG in Beijing An Zhen Hospital between April and August 2012. In the conventional TTFM method, normal blood flow in the sequential graft was maintained during the measurement, and the flow probe was placed a few centimetres above the anastomosis to be evaluated. In the new method, blood flow in the sequential graft was temporarily reduced during the measurement by placing an atraumatic bulldog clamp at the graft a few centimetres distal to the anastomosis to be evaluated, while the position of the flow probe remained the same as in the conventional method. This new TTFM method was named the flow reduction TTFM. Graft flow parameters measured by both methods were compared. RESULTS Compared with the conventional TTFM, the flow reduction TTFM resulted in significantly lower mean graft blood flow (P < 0.05); in contrast, yielded significantly higher pulsatility index (P < 0.05). Diastolic filling was not significantly different between the two methods and was >50% in both cases. Interestingly, the flow reduction TTFM identified two defective middle distal anastomoses that the conventional TTFM failed to detect. Graft flows near the defective distal anastomoses were improved substantially after revision. CONCLUSIONS In this study, we found that temporary reduction of graft flow during TTFM seemed to

  4. On Probability Domains IV

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2017-12-01

    Stressing a categorical approach, we continue our study of fuzzified domains of probability, in which classical random events are replaced by measurable fuzzy random events. In operational probability theory (S. Bugajski) classical random variables are replaced by statistical maps (generalized distribution maps induced by random variables) and in fuzzy probability theory (S. Gudder) the central role is played by observables (maps between probability domains). We show that to each of the two generalized probability theories there corresponds a suitable category and the two resulting categories are dually equivalent. Statistical maps and observables become morphisms. A statistical map can send a degenerated (pure) state to a non-degenerated one —a quantum phenomenon and, dually, an observable can map a crisp random event to a genuine fuzzy random event —a fuzzy phenomenon. The dual equivalence means that the operational probability theory and the fuzzy probability theory coincide and the resulting generalized probability theory has two dual aspects: quantum and fuzzy. We close with some notes on products and coproducts in the dual categories.

  5. Accurate critical pressures for structural phase transitions of group IV, III-V, and II-VI compounds from the SCAN density functional

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahi, Chandra; Sun, Jianwei; Perdew, John P.

    2018-03-01

    Most of the group IV, III-V, and II-VI compounds crystallize in semiconductor structures under ambient conditions. Upon application of pressure, they undergo structural phase transitions to more closely packed structures, sometimes metallic phases. We have performed density functional calculations using projector augmented wave (PAW) pseudopotentials to determine the transition pressures for these transitions within the local density approximation (LDA), the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) generalized gradient approximation (GGA), and the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) meta-GGA. LDA underestimates the transition pressure for most of the studied materials. PBE under- or overestimates in many cases. SCAN typically corrects the errors of LDA and PBE for the transition pressure. The accuracy of SCAN is comparable to that of computationally expensive methods like the hybrid functional HSE06, the random phase approximation (RPA), and quantum Monte Carlo (QMC), in cases where calculations with these methods have been reported, but at a more modest computational cost. The improvement from LDA to PBE to SCAN is especially clearcut and dramatic for covalent semiconductor-metal transitions, as for Si and Ge, where it reflects the increasing relative stabilization of the covalent semiconducting phases under increasing functional sophistication.

  6. Global quantum discord and quantum phase transition in XY model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Liu, Si-Yuan; Beijing National Laboratory for Condensed Matter Physics, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190; Zhang, Yu-Ran, E-mail: yrzhang@iphy.ac.cn

    We study the relationship between the behavior of global quantum correlations and quantum phase transitions in XY model. We find that the two kinds of phase transitions in the studied model can be characterized by the features of global quantum discord (GQD) and the corresponding quantum correlations. We demonstrate that the maximum of the sum of all the nearest neighbor bipartite GQDs is effective and accurate for signaling the Ising quantum phase transition, in contrast, the sudden change of GQD is very suitable for characterizing another phase transition in the XY model. This may shed lights on the study ofmore » properties of quantum correlations in different quantum phases.« less

  7. Exact joint density-current probability function for the asymmetric exclusion process.

    PubMed

    Depken, Martin; Stinchcombe, Robin

    2004-07-23

    We study the asymmetric simple exclusion process with open boundaries and derive the exact form of the joint probability function for the occupation number and the current through the system. We further consider the thermodynamic limit, showing that the resulting distribution is non-Gaussian and that the density fluctuations have a discontinuity at the continuous phase transition, while the current fluctuations are continuous. The derivations are performed by using the standard operator algebraic approach and by the introduction of new operators satisfying a modified version of the original algebra. Copyright 2004 The American Physical Society

  8. Numerical Simulations of Hypersonic Boundary Layer Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartkowicz, Matthew David

    Numerical schemes for supersonic flows tend to use large amounts of artificial viscosity for stability. This tends to damp out the small scale structures in the flow. Recently some low-dissipation methods have been proposed which selectively eliminate the artificial viscosity in regions which do not require it. This work builds upon the low-dissipation method of Subbareddy and Candler which uses the flux vector splitting method of Steger and Warming but identifies the dissipation portion to eliminate it. Computing accurate fluxes typically relies on large grid stencils or coupled linear systems that become computationally expensive to solve. Unstructured grids allow for CFD solutions to be obtained on complex geometries, unfortunately, it then becomes difficult to create a large stencil or the coupled linear system. Accurate solutions require grids that quickly become too large to be feasible. In this thesis a method is proposed to obtain more accurate solutions using relatively local data, making it suitable for unstructured grids composed of hexahedral elements. Fluxes are reconstructed using local gradients to extend the range of data used. The method is then validated on several test problems. Simulations of boundary layer transition are then performed. An elliptic cone at Mach 8 is simulated based on an experiment at the Princeton Gasdynamics Laboratory. A simulated acoustic noise boundary condition is imposed to model the noisy conditions of the wind tunnel and the transitioning boundary layer observed. A computation of an isolated roughness element is done based on an experiment in Purdue's Mach 6 quiet wind tunnel. The mechanism for transition is identified as an instability in the upstream separation region and a comparison is made to experimental data. In the CFD a fully turbulent boundary layer is observed downstream.

  9. Empirical models of transitions between coral reef states: effects of region, protection, and environmental change.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Phillip K; Bruno, John F; Selig, Elizabeth R; Spencer, Matthew

    2011-01-01

    There has been substantial recent change in coral reef communities. To date, most analyses have focussed on static patterns or changes in single variables such as coral cover. However, little is known about how community-level changes occur at large spatial scales. Here, we develop Markov models of annual changes in coral and macroalgal cover in the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR) regions. We analyzed reef surveys from the Caribbean and GBR (1996-2006). We defined a set of reef states distinguished by coral and macroalgal cover, and obtained Bayesian estimates of the annual probabilities of transitions between these states. The Caribbean and GBR had different transition probabilities, and therefore different rates of change in reef condition. This could be due to differences in species composition, management or the nature and extent of disturbances between these regions. We then estimated equilibrium probability distributions for reef states, and coral and macroalgal cover under constant environmental conditions. In both regions, the current distributions are close to equilibrium. In the Caribbean, coral cover is much lower and macroalgal cover is higher at equilibrium than in the GBR. We found no evidence for differences in transition probabilities between the first and second halves of our survey period, or between Caribbean reefs inside and outside marine protected areas. However, our power to detect such differences may have been low. We also examined the effects of altering transition probabilities on the community state equilibrium, along a continuum from unfavourable (e.g., increased sea surface temperature) to favourable (e.g., improved management) conditions. Both regions showed similar qualitative responses, but different patterns of uncertainty. In the Caribbean, uncertainty was greatest about effects of favourable changes, while in the GBR, we are most uncertain about effects of unfavourable changes. Our approach could be extended to provide

  10. Dynamic depinning phase transition in magnetic thin film with anisotropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, L.; Zheng, B.; Jin, M. H.; Wang, L.; Zhou, N. J.

    2018-02-01

    The dynamic pinning effects induced by quenched disorder are significant in manipulating the domain-wall motion in nano-magnetic materials. Through numerical simulations of the nonstationary domain-wall dynamics with the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation, we confidently detect a dynamic depinning phase transition in a magnetic thin film with anisotropy, which is of second order. The transition field, static and dynamic exponents are accurately determined, based on the dynamic scaling behavior far from stationary.

  11. A comparison between state-specific and linear-response formalisms for the calculation of vertical electronic transition energy in solution with the CCSD-PCM method.

    PubMed

    Caricato, Marco

    2013-07-28

    The calculation of vertical electronic transition energies of molecular systems in solution with accurate quantum mechanical methods requires the use of approximate and yet reliable models to describe the effect of the solvent on the electronic structure of the solute. The polarizable continuum model (PCM) of solvation represents a computationally efficient way to describe this effect, especially when combined with coupled cluster (CC) methods. Two formalisms are available to compute transition energies within the PCM framework: State-Specific (SS) and Linear-Response (LR). The former provides a more complete account of the solute-solvent polarization in the excited states, while the latter is computationally very efficient (i.e., comparable to gas phase) and transition properties are well defined. In this work, I review the theory for the two formalisms within CC theory with a focus on their computational requirements, and present the first implementation of the LR-PCM formalism with the coupled cluster singles and doubles method (CCSD). Transition energies computed with LR- and SS-CCSD-PCM are presented, as well as a comparison between solvation models in the LR approach. The numerical results show that the two formalisms provide different absolute values of transition energy, but similar relative solvatochromic shifts (from nonpolar to polar solvents). The LR formalism may then be used to explore the solvent effect on multiple states and evaluate transition probabilities, while the SS formalism may be used to refine the description of specific states and for the exploration of excited state potential energy surfaces of solvated systems.

  12. Assessment of TD-DFT and LF-DFT for study of d − d transitions in first row transition metal hexaaqua complexes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Vlahović, Filip; Perić, Marko; Zlatar, Matija, E-mail: matijaz@chem.bg.ac.rs

    2015-06-07

    Herein, we present the systematic, comparative computational study of the d − d transitions in a series of first row transition metal hexaaqua complexes, [M(H{sub 2}O){sub 6}]{sup n+} (M{sup 2+/3+} = V {sup 2+/3+}, Cr{sup 2+/3+}, Mn{sup 2+/3+}, Fe{sup 2+/3+}, Co{sup 2+/3+}, Ni{sup 2+}) by the means of Time-dependent Density Functional Theory (TD-DFT) and Ligand Field Density Functional Theory (LF-DFT). Influence of various exchange-correlation (XC) approximations have been studied, and results have been compared to the experimental transition energies, as well as, to the previous high-level ab initio calculations. TD-DFT gives satisfactory results in the cases of d{sup 2}, d{supmore » 4}, and low-spin d{sup 6} complexes, but fails in the cases when transitions depend only on the ligand field splitting, and for states with strong character of double excitation. LF-DFT, as a non-empirical approach to the ligand field theory, takes into account in a balanced way both dynamic and non-dynamic correlation effects and hence accurately describes the multiplets of transition metal complexes, even in difficult cases such as sextet-quartet splitting in d{sup 5} complexes. Use of the XC functionals designed for the accurate description of the spin-state splitting, e.g., OPBE, OPBE0, or SSB-D, is found to be crucial for proper prediction of the spin-forbidden excitations by LF-DFT. It is shown that LF-DFT is a valuable alternative to both TD-DFT and ab initio methods.« less

  13. Chirped-Pulse Millimeter-Wave Spectroscopy of Rydberg-Rydberg Transitions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Prozument, Kirill; Colombo, Anthony P.; Zhou Yan

    2011-09-30

    Transitions between Rydberg states of Ca atoms, in a pulsed, supersonic atomic beam, are directly detected by chirped-pulse millimeter-wave spectroscopy. Broadband, high-resolution spectra with accurate relative intensities are recorded instantly. Free induction decay (FID) of atoms, polarized by the chirped pulse, at their Rydberg-Rydberg transition frequencies, is heterodyne detected, averaged in the time domain, and Fourier transformed into the frequency domain. Millimeter-wave transient nutations are observed, and the possibility of FID evolving to superradiance is discussed.

  14. Clogging and jamming transitions in periodic obstacle arrays

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Nguyen, Hong; Reichhardt, Charles; Olson Reichhardt, Cynthia Jane

    2017-03-29

    We numerically examine clogging transitions for bidisperse disks flowing through a two-dimensional periodic obstacle array. Here, we show that clogging is a probabilistic event that occurs through a transition from a homogeneous flowing state to a heterogeneous or phase-separated jammed state where the disks form dense connected clusters. The probability for clogging to occur during a fixed time increases with increasing particle packing and obstacle number. For driving at different angles with respect to the symmetry direction of the obstacle array, we show that certain directions have a higher clogging susceptibility. It is also possible to have a size-specific cloggingmore » transition in which one disk size becomes completely immobile while the other disk size continues to flow.« less

  15. Improving Upon String Methods for Transition State Discovery.

    PubMed

    Chaffey-Millar, Hugh; Nikodem, Astrid; Matveev, Alexei V; Krüger, Sven; Rösch, Notker

    2012-02-14

    Transition state discovery via application of string methods has been researched on two fronts. The first front involves development of a new string method, named the Searching String method, while the second one aims at estimating transition states from a discretized reaction path. The Searching String method has been benchmarked against a number of previously existing string methods and the Nudged Elastic Band method. The developed methods have led to a reduction in the number of gradient calls required to optimize a transition state, as compared to existing methods. The Searching String method reported here places new beads on a reaction pathway at the midpoint between existing beads, such that the resolution of the path discretization in the region containing the transition state grows exponentially with the number of beads. This approach leads to favorable convergence behavior and generates more accurate estimates of transition states from which convergence to the final transition states occurs more readily. Several techniques for generating improved estimates of transition states from a converged string or nudged elastic band have been developed and benchmarked on 13 chemical test cases. Optimization approaches for string methods, and pitfalls therein, are discussed.

  16. Identifying early-warning signals of critical transitions with strong noise by dynamical network markers

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Rui; Chen, Pei; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Chen, Luonan

    2015-01-01

    Identifying early-warning signals of a critical transition for a complex system is difficult, especially when the target system is constantly perturbed by big noise, which makes the traditional methods fail due to the strong fluctuations of the observed data. In this work, we show that the critical transition is not traditional state-transition but probability distribution-transition when the noise is not sufficiently small, which, however, is a ubiquitous case in real systems. We present a model-free computational method to detect the warning signals before such transitions. The key idea behind is a strategy: “making big noise smaller” by a distribution-embedding scheme, which transforms the data from the observed state-variables with big noise to their distribution-variables with small noise, and thus makes the traditional criteria effective because of the significantly reduced fluctuations. Specifically, increasing the dimension of the observed data by moment expansion that changes the system from state-dynamics to probability distribution-dynamics, we derive new data in a higher-dimensional space but with much smaller noise. Then, we develop a criterion based on the dynamical network marker (DNM) to signal the impending critical transition using the transformed higher-dimensional data. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in biological, ecological and financial systems. PMID:26647650

  17. Hydrogen atoms can be located accurately and precisely by x-ray crystallography.

    PubMed

    Woińska, Magdalena; Grabowsky, Simon; Dominiak, Paulina M; Woźniak, Krzysztof; Jayatilaka, Dylan

    2016-05-01

    Precise and accurate structural information on hydrogen atoms is crucial to the study of energies of interactions important for crystal engineering, materials science, medicine, and pharmacy, and to the estimation of physical and chemical properties in solids. However, hydrogen atoms only scatter x-radiation weakly, so x-rays have not been used routinely to locate them accurately. Textbooks and teaching classes still emphasize that hydrogen atoms cannot be located with x-rays close to heavy elements; instead, neutron diffraction is needed. We show that, contrary to widespread expectation, hydrogen atoms can be located very accurately using x-ray diffraction, yielding bond lengths involving hydrogen atoms (A-H) that are in agreement with results from neutron diffraction mostly within a single standard deviation. The precision of the determination is also comparable between x-ray and neutron diffraction results. This has been achieved at resolutions as low as 0.8 Å using Hirshfeld atom refinement (HAR). We have applied HAR to 81 crystal structures of organic molecules and compared the A-H bond lengths with those from neutron measurements for A-H bonds sorted into bonds of the same class. We further show in a selection of inorganic compounds that hydrogen atoms can be located in bridging positions and close to heavy transition metals accurately and precisely. We anticipate that, in the future, conventional x-radiation sources at in-house diffractometers can be used routinely for locating hydrogen atoms in small molecules accurately instead of large-scale facilities such as spallation sources or nuclear reactors.

  18. Hydrogen atoms can be located accurately and precisely by x-ray crystallography

    PubMed Central

    Woińska, Magdalena; Grabowsky, Simon; Dominiak, Paulina M.; Woźniak, Krzysztof; Jayatilaka, Dylan

    2016-01-01

    Precise and accurate structural information on hydrogen atoms is crucial to the study of energies of interactions important for crystal engineering, materials science, medicine, and pharmacy, and to the estimation of physical and chemical properties in solids. However, hydrogen atoms only scatter x-radiation weakly, so x-rays have not been used routinely to locate them accurately. Textbooks and teaching classes still emphasize that hydrogen atoms cannot be located with x-rays close to heavy elements; instead, neutron diffraction is needed. We show that, contrary to widespread expectation, hydrogen atoms can be located very accurately using x-ray diffraction, yielding bond lengths involving hydrogen atoms (A–H) that are in agreement with results from neutron diffraction mostly within a single standard deviation. The precision of the determination is also comparable between x-ray and neutron diffraction results. This has been achieved at resolutions as low as 0.8 Å using Hirshfeld atom refinement (HAR). We have applied HAR to 81 crystal structures of organic molecules and compared the A–H bond lengths with those from neutron measurements for A–H bonds sorted into bonds of the same class. We further show in a selection of inorganic compounds that hydrogen atoms can be located in bridging positions and close to heavy transition metals accurately and precisely. We anticipate that, in the future, conventional x-radiation sources at in-house diffractometers can be used routinely for locating hydrogen atoms in small molecules accurately instead of large-scale facilities such as spallation sources or nuclear reactors. PMID:27386545

  19. Intra-Urban Human Mobility and Activity Transition: Evidence from Social Media Check-In Data

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Lun; Zhi, Ye; Sui, Zhengwei; Liu, Yu

    2014-01-01

    Most existing human mobility literature focuses on exterior characteristics of movements but neglects activities, the driving force that underlies human movements. In this research, we combine activity-based analysis with a movement-based approach to model the intra-urban human mobility observed from about 15 million check-in records during a yearlong period in Shanghai, China. The proposed model is activity-based and includes two parts: the transition of travel demands during a specific time period and the movement between locations. For the first part, we find the transition probability between activities varies over time, and then we construct a temporal transition probability matrix to represent the transition probability of travel demands during a time interval. For the second part, we suggest that the travel demands can be divided into two classes, locationally mandatory activity (LMA) and locationally stochastic activity (LSA), according to whether the demand is associated with fixed location or not. By judging the combination of predecessor activity type and successor activity type we determine three trip patterns, each associated with a different decay parameter. To validate the model, we adopt the mechanism of an agent-based model and compare the simulated results with the observed pattern from the displacement distance distribution, the spatio-temporal distribution of activities, and the temporal distribution of travel demand transitions. The results show that the simulated patterns fit the observed data well, indicating that these findings open new directions for combining activity-based analysis with a movement-based approach using social media check-in data. PMID:24824892

  20. A temperate rocky super-Earth transiting a nearby cool star

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dittmann, Jason A.; Irwin, Jonathan M.; Charbonneau, David; Bonfils, Xavier; Astudillo-Defru, Nicola; Haywood, Raphaëlle D.; Berta-Thompson, Zachory K.; Newton, Elisabeth R.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; Winters, Jennifer G.; Tan, Thiam-Guan; Almenara, Jose-Manuel; Bouchy, François; Delfosse, Xavier; Forveille, Thierry; Lovis, Christophe; Murgas, Felipe; Pepe, Francesco; Santos, Nuno C.; Udry, Stephane; Wünsche, Anaël; Esquerdo, Gilbert A.; Latham, David W.; Dressing, Courtney D.

    2017-04-01

    M dwarf stars, which have masses less than 60 per cent that of the Sun, make up 75 per cent of the population of the stars in the Galaxy. The atmospheres of orbiting Earth-sized planets are observationally accessible via transmission spectroscopy when the planets pass in front of these stars. Statistical results suggest that the nearest transiting Earth-sized planet in the liquid-water, habitable zone of an M dwarf star is probably around 10.5 parsecs away. A temperate planet has been discovered orbiting Proxima Centauri, the closest M dwarf, but it probably does not transit and its true mass is unknown. Seven Earth-sized planets transit the very low-mass star TRAPPIST-1, which is 12 parsecs away, but their masses and, particularly, their densities are poorly constrained. Here we report observations of LHS 1140b, a planet with a radius of 1.4 Earth radii transiting a small, cool star (LHS 1140) 12 parsecs away. We measure the mass of the planet to be 6.6 times that of Earth, consistent with a rocky bulk composition. LHS 1140b receives an insolation of 0.46 times that of Earth, placing it within the liquid-water, habitable zone. With 90 per cent confidence, we place an upper limit on the orbital eccentricity of 0.29. The circular orbit is unlikely to be the result of tides and therefore was probably present at formation. Given its large surface gravity and cool insolation, the planet may have retained its atmosphere despite the greater luminosity (compared to the present-day) of its host star in its youth. Because LHS 1140 is nearby, telescopes currently under construction might be able to search for specific atmospheric gases in the future.

  1. A temperate rocky super-Earth transiting a nearby cool star.

    PubMed

    Dittmann, Jason A; Irwin, Jonathan M; Charbonneau, David; Bonfils, Xavier; Astudillo-Defru, Nicola; Haywood, Raphaëlle D; Berta-Thompson, Zachory K; Newton, Elisabeth R; Rodriguez, Joseph E; Winters, Jennifer G; Tan, Thiam-Guan; Almenara, Jose-Manuel; Bouchy, François; Delfosse, Xavier; Forveille, Thierry; Lovis, Christophe; Murgas, Felipe; Pepe, Francesco; Santos, Nuno C; Udry, Stephane; Wünsche, Anaël; Esquerdo, Gilbert A; Latham, David W; Dressing, Courtney D

    2017-04-19

    M dwarf stars, which have masses less than 60 per cent that of the Sun, make up 75 per cent of the population of the stars in the Galaxy. The atmospheres of orbiting Earth-sized planets are observationally accessible via transmission spectroscopy when the planets pass in front of these stars. Statistical results suggest that the nearest transiting Earth-sized planet in the liquid-water, habitable zone of an M dwarf star is probably around 10.5 parsecs away. A temperate planet has been discovered orbiting Proxima Centauri, the closest M dwarf, but it probably does not transit and its true mass is unknown. Seven Earth-sized planets transit the very low-mass star TRAPPIST-1, which is 12 parsecs away, but their masses and, particularly, their densities are poorly constrained. Here we report observations of LHS 1140b, a planet with a radius of 1.4 Earth radii transiting a small, cool star (LHS 1140) 12 parsecs away. We measure the mass of the planet to be 6.6 times that of Earth, consistent with a rocky bulk composition. LHS 1140b receives an insolation of 0.46 times that of Earth, placing it within the liquid-water, habitable zone. With 90 per cent confidence, we place an upper limit on the orbital eccentricity of 0.29. The circular orbit is unlikely to be the result of tides and therefore was probably present at formation. Given its large surface gravity and cool insolation, the planet may have retained its atmosphere despite the greater luminosity (compared to the present-day) of its host star in its youth. Because LHS 1140 is nearby, telescopes currently under construction might be able to search for specific atmospheric gases in the future.

  2. The multi-level perspective analysis: Indonesia geothermal energy transition study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wisaksono, A.; Murphy, J.; Sharp, J. H.; Younger, P. L.

    2018-01-01

    The study adopts a multi-level perspective in technology transition to analyse how the transition process in the development of geothermal energy in Indonesia is able to compete against the incumbent fossil-fuelled energy sources. Three levels of multi-level perspective are socio-technical landscape (ST-landscape), socio-technical regime (ST-regime) and niche innovations in Indonesia geothermal development. The identification, mapping and analysis of the dynamic relationship between each level are the important pillars of the multi-level perspective framework. The analysis considers the set of rules, actors and controversies that may arise in the technological transition process. The identified geothermal resource risks are the basis of the emerging geothermal technological innovations in Indonesian geothermal. The analysis of this study reveals the transition pathway, which yields a forecast for the Indonesian geothermal technology transition in the form of scenarios and probable impacts.

  3. Probability-based collaborative filtering model for predicting gene-disease associations.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Xiangxiang; Ding, Ningxiang; Rodríguez-Patón, Alfonso; Zou, Quan

    2017-12-28

    Accurately predicting pathogenic human genes has been challenging in recent research. Considering extensive gene-disease data verified by biological experiments, we can apply computational methods to perform accurate predictions with reduced time and expenses. We propose a probability-based collaborative filtering model (PCFM) to predict pathogenic human genes. Several kinds of data sets, containing data of humans and data of other nonhuman species, are integrated in our model. Firstly, on the basis of a typical latent factorization model, we propose model I with an average heterogeneous regularization. Secondly, we develop modified model II with personal heterogeneous regularization to enhance the accuracy of aforementioned models. In this model, vector space similarity or Pearson correlation coefficient metrics and data on related species are also used. We compared the results of PCFM with the results of four state-of-arts approaches. The results show that PCFM performs better than other advanced approaches. PCFM model can be leveraged for predictions of disease genes, especially for new human genes or diseases with no known relationships.

  4. Using type IV Pearson distribution to calculate the probabilities of underrun and overrun of lists of multiple cases.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jihan; Yang, Kai

    2014-07-01

    An efficient operating room needs both little underutilised and overutilised time to achieve optimal cost efficiency. The probabilities of underrun and overrun of lists of cases can be estimated by a well defined duration distribution of the lists. To propose a method of predicting the probabilities of underrun and overrun of lists of cases using Type IV Pearson distribution to support case scheduling. Six years of data were collected. The first 5 years of data were used to fit distributions and estimate parameters. The data from the last year were used as testing data to validate the proposed methods. The percentiles of the duration distribution of lists of cases were calculated by Type IV Pearson distribution and t-distribution. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to verify the accuracy of percentiles defined by the proposed methods. Operating rooms in John D. Dingell VA Medical Center, United States, from January 2005 to December 2011. Differences between the proportion of lists of cases that were completed within the percentiles of the proposed duration distribution of the lists and the corresponding percentiles. Compared with the t-distribution, the proposed new distribution is 8.31% (0.38) more accurate on average and 14.16% (0.19) more accurate in calculating the probabilities at the 10th and 90th percentiles of the distribution, which is a major concern of operating room schedulers. The absolute deviations between the percentiles defined by Type IV Pearson distribution and those from Monte Carlo simulation varied from 0.20  min (0.01) to 0.43  min (0.03). Operating room schedulers can rely on the most recent 10 cases with the same combination of surgeon and procedure(s) for distribution parameter estimation to plan lists of cases. Values are mean (SEM). The proposed Type IV Pearson distribution is more accurate than t-distribution to estimate the probabilities of underrun and overrun of lists of cases. However, as not all the individual case durations

  5. Stable-unstable transition for a Bose-Hubbard chain coupled to an environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Chu; de Vega, Ines; Schollwöck, Ulrich; Poletti, Dario

    2018-05-01

    Interactions in quantum systems may induce transitions to exotic correlated phases of matter which can be vulnerable to coupling to an environment. Here, we study the stability of a Bose-Hubbard chain coupled to a bosonic bath at zero and nonzero temperature. We show that only above a critical interaction the chain loses bosons and its properties are significantly affected. The transition is of a different nature than the superfluid-Mott-insulator transition and occurs at a different critical interaction. We explain such a stable-unstable transition by the opening of a global charge gap. The comparison of accurate matrix product state simulations to approximative approaches that miss this transition reveals its many-body origin.

  6. Redefining metamorphosis in spiny lobsters: molecular analysis of the phyllosoma to puerulus transition in Sagmariasus verreauxi

    PubMed Central

    Ventura, Tomer; Fitzgibbon, Quinn P.; Battaglene, Stephen C.; Elizur, Abigail

    2015-01-01

    The molecular understanding of crustacean metamorphosis is hindered by small sized individuals and inability to accurately define molt stages. We used the spiny lobster Sagmariasus verreauxi where the large, transparent larvae enable accurate tracing of the transition from a leaf-shaped phyllosoma to an intermediate larval-juvenile phase (puerulus). Transcriptomic analysis of larvae at well-defined stages prior to, during, and following this transition show that the phyllosoma-puerulus metamorphic transition is accompanied by vast transcriptomic changes exceeding 25% of the transcriptome. Notably, genes previously identified as regulating metamorphosis in other crustaceans do not fluctuate during this transition but in the later, morphologically-subtle puerulus-juvenile transition, indicating that the dramatic phyllosoma-puerulus morphological shift relies on a different, yet to be identified metamorphic mechanism. We examined the change in expression of domains and gene families, with focus on several key genes. Our research implies that the separation in molecular triggering systems between the phyllosoma-puerulus and puerulus-juvenile transitions might have enabled the extension of the oceanic phase in spiny lobsters. Study of similar transitions, where metamorphosis is uncoupled from the transition into the benthic juvenile form, in other commercially important crustacean groups might show common features to point on the evolutionary advantage of this two staged regulation. PMID:26311524

  7. Redefining metamorphosis in spiny lobsters: molecular analysis of the phyllosoma to puerulus transition in Sagmariasus verreauxi.

    PubMed

    Ventura, Tomer; Fitzgibbon, Quinn P; Battaglene, Stephen C; Elizur, Abigail

    2015-08-27

    The molecular understanding of crustacean metamorphosis is hindered by small sized individuals and inability to accurately define molt stages. We used the spiny lobster Sagmariasus verreauxi where the large, transparent larvae enable accurate tracing of the transition from a leaf-shaped phyllosoma to an intermediate larval-juvenile phase (puerulus). Transcriptomic analysis of larvae at well-defined stages prior to, during, and following this transition show that the phyllosoma-puerulus metamorphic transition is accompanied by vast transcriptomic changes exceeding 25% of the transcriptome. Notably, genes previously identified as regulating metamorphosis in other crustaceans do not fluctuate during this transition but in the later, morphologically-subtle puerulus-juvenile transition, indicating that the dramatic phyllosoma-puerulus morphological shift relies on a different, yet to be identified metamorphic mechanism. We examined the change in expression of domains and gene families, with focus on several key genes. Our research implies that the separation in molecular triggering systems between the phyllosoma-puerulus and puerulus-juvenile transitions might have enabled the extension of the oceanic phase in spiny lobsters. Study of similar transitions, where metamorphosis is uncoupled from the transition into the benthic juvenile form, in other commercially important crustacean groups might show common features to point on the evolutionary advantage of this two staged regulation.

  8. The force distribution probability function for simple fluids by density functional theory.

    PubMed

    Rickayzen, G; Heyes, D M

    2013-02-28

    Classical density functional theory (DFT) is used to derive a formula for the probability density distribution function, P(F), and probability distribution function, W(F), for simple fluids, where F is the net force on a particle. The final formula for P(F) ∝ exp(-AF(2)), where A depends on the fluid density, the temperature, and the Fourier transform of the pair potential. The form of the DFT theory used is only applicable to bounded potential fluids. When combined with the hypernetted chain closure of the Ornstein-Zernike equation, the DFT theory for W(F) agrees with molecular dynamics computer simulations for the Gaussian and bounded soft sphere at high density. The Gaussian form for P(F) is still accurate at lower densities (but not too low density) for the two potentials, but with a smaller value for the constant, A, than that predicted by the DFT theory.

  9. Direct numerical simulation of transition and turbulence in a spatially evolving boundary layer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rai, Man M.; Moin, Parviz

    1991-01-01

    A high-order-accurate finite-difference approach to direct simulations of transition and turbulence in compressible flows is described. Attention is given to the high-free-stream disturbance case in which transition to turbulence occurs close to the leading edge. In effect, computation requirements are reduced. A method for numerically generating free-stream disturbances is presented.

  10. Risks and probabilities of breast cancer: short-term versus lifetime probabilities.

    PubMed Central

    Bryant, H E; Brasher, P M

    1994-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To calculate age-specific short-term and lifetime probabilities of breast cancer among a cohort of Canadian women. DESIGN: Double decrement life table. SETTING: Alberta. SUBJECTS: Women with first invasive breast cancers registered with the Alberta Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime probability of breast cancer from birth and for women at various ages; short-term (up to 10 years) probability of breast cancer for women at various ages. RESULTS: The lifetime probability of breast cancer is 10.17% at birth and peaks at 10.34% at age 25 years, after which it decreases owing to a decline in the number of years over which breast cancer risk will be experienced. However, the probability of manifesting breast cancer in the next year increases steadily from the age of 30 onward, reaching 0.36% at 85 years. The probability of manifesting the disease within the next 10 years peaks at 2.97% at age 70 and decreases thereafter, again owing to declining probabilities of surviving the interval. CONCLUSIONS: Given that the incidence of breast cancer among Albertan women during the study period was similar to the national average, we conclude that currently more than 1 in 10 women in Canada can expect to have breast cancer at some point during their life. However, risk varies considerably over a woman's lifetime, with most risk concentrated after age 49. On the basis of the shorter-term age-specific risks that we present, the clinician can put breast cancer risk into perspective for younger women and heighten awareness among women aged 50 years or more. PMID:8287343

  11. External noise-induced transitions in a current-biased Josephson junction

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Huang, Qiongwei; Xue, Changfeng, E-mail: cfxue@163.com; Tang, Jiashi

    We investigate noise-induced transitions in a current-biased and weakly damped Josephson junction in the presence of multiplicative noise. By using the stochastic averaging procedure, the averaged amplitude equation describing dynamic evolution near a constant phase difference is derived. Numerical results show that a stochastic Hopf bifurcation between an absorbing and an oscillatory state occurs. This means the external controllable noise triggers a transition into the non-zero junction voltage state. With the increase of noise intensity, the stationary probability distribution peak shifts and is characterised by increased width and reduced height. And the different transition rates are shown for large andmore » small bias currents.« less

  12. Launch Collision Probability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bollenbacher, Gary; Guptill, James D.

    1999-01-01

    This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. ne impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.

  13. Validating An Analytic Completeness Model for Kepler Target Stars Based on Flux-level Transit Injection Experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catanzarite, Joseph; Burke, Christopher J.; Li, Jie; Seader, Shawn; Haas, Michael R.; Batalha, Natalie; Henze, Christopher; Christiansen, Jessie; Kepler Project, NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division

    2016-06-01

    The Kepler Mission is developing an Analytic Completeness Model (ACM) to estimate detection completeness contours as a function of exoplanet radius and period for each target star. Accurate completeness contours are necessary for robust estimation of exoplanet occurrence rates.The main components of the ACM for a target star are: detection efficiency as a function of SNR, the window function (WF) and the one-sigma depth function (OSDF). (Ref. Burke et al. 2015). The WF captures the falloff in transit detection probability at long periods that is determined by the observation window (the duration over which the target star has been observed). The OSDF is the transit depth (in parts per million) that yields SNR of unity for the full transit train. It is a function of period, and accounts for the time-varying properties of the noise and for missing or deweighted data.We are performing flux-level transit injection (FLTI) experiments on selected Kepler target stars with the goal of refining and validating the ACM. “Flux-level” injection machinery inserts exoplanet transit signatures directly into the flux time series, as opposed to “pixel-level” injection, which inserts transit signatures into the individual pixels using the pixel response function. See Jie Li's poster: ID #2493668, "Flux-level transit injection experiments with the NASA Pleiades Supercomputer" for details, including performance statistics.Since FLTI is affordable for only a small subset of the Kepler targets, the ACM is designed to apply to most Kepler target stars. We validate this model using “deep” FLTI experiments, with ~500,000 injection realizations on each of a small number of targets and “shallow” FLTI experiments with ~2000 injection realizations on each of many targets. From the results of these experiments, we identify anomalous targets, model their behavior and refine the ACM accordingly.In this presentation, we discuss progress in validating and refining the ACM, and we

  14. Guide star probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soneira, R. M.; Bahcall, J. N.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilities are calculated for acquiring suitable guide stars (GS) with the fine guidance system (FGS) of the space telescope. A number of the considerations and techniques described are also relevant for other space astronomy missions. The constraints of the FGS are reviewed. The available data on bright star densities are summarized and a previous error in the literature is corrected. Separate analytic and Monte Carlo calculations of the probabilities are described. A simulation of space telescope pointing is carried out using the Weistrop north galactic pole catalog of bright stars. Sufficient information is presented so that the probabilities of acquisition can be estimated as a function of position in the sky. The probability of acquiring suitable guide stars is greatly increased if the FGS can allow an appreciable difference between the (bright) primary GS limiting magnitude and the (fainter) secondary GS limiting magnitude.

  15. Towards Bridging the Gaps in Holistic Transition Prediction via Numerical Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choudhari, Meelan M.; Li, Fei; Duan, Lian; Chang, Chau-Lyan; Carpenter, Mark H.; Streett, Craig L.; Malik, Mujeeb R.

    2013-01-01

    The economic and environmental benefits of laminar flow technology via reduced fuel burn of subsonic and supersonic aircraft cannot be realized without minimizing the uncertainty in drag prediction in general and transition prediction in particular. Transition research under NASA's Aeronautical Sciences Project seeks to develop a validated set of variable fidelity prediction tools with known strengths and limitations, so as to enable "sufficiently" accurate transition prediction and practical transition control for future vehicle concepts. This paper provides a summary of selected research activities targeting the current gaps in high-fidelity transition prediction, specifically those related to the receptivity and laminar breakdown phases of crossflow induced transition in a subsonic swept-wing boundary layer. The results of direct numerical simulations are used to obtain an enhanced understanding of the laminar breakdown region as well as to validate reduced order prediction methods.

  16. Parity-violating electric-dipole transitions in helium

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hiller, J.; Sucher, J.; Bhatia, A. K.; Feinberg, G.

    1980-01-01

    The paper examines parity-violating electric-dipole transitions in He in order to gain insight into the reliability of approximate calculations which are carried out for transitions in many-electron atoms. The contributions of the nearest-lying states are computed with a variety of wave functions, including very simple product wave functions, Hartree-Fock functions and Hylleraas-type wave functions with up to 84 parameters. It is found that values of the matrix elements of the parity-violating interaction can differ considerably from the values obtained from the good wave functions, even when these simple wave functions give accurate values for the matrix elements in question

  17. Solvable multistate model of Landau-Zener transitions in cavity QED

    DOE PAGES

    Sinitsyn, Nikolai; Li, Fuxiang

    2016-06-29

    We consider the model of a single optical cavity mode interacting with two-level systems (spins) driven by a linearly time-dependent field. When this field passes through values at which spin energy level splittings become comparable to spin coupling to the optical mode, a cascade of Landau-Zener (LZ) transitions leads to co-flips of spins in exchange for photons of the cavity. We derive exact transition probabilities between different diabatic states induced by such a sweep of the field.

  18. Accurate finite difference methods for time-harmonic wave propagation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harari, Isaac; Turkel, Eli

    1994-01-01

    Finite difference methods for solving problems of time-harmonic acoustics are developed and analyzed. Multidimensional inhomogeneous problems with variable, possibly discontinuous, coefficients are considered, accounting for the effects of employing nonuniform grids. A weighted-average representation is less sensitive to transition in wave resolution (due to variable wave numbers or nonuniform grids) than the standard pointwise representation. Further enhancement in method performance is obtained by basing the stencils on generalizations of Pade approximation, or generalized definitions of the derivative, reducing spurious dispersion, anisotropy and reflection, and by improving the representation of source terms. The resulting schemes have fourth-order accurate local truncation error on uniform grids and third order in the nonuniform case. Guidelines for discretization pertaining to grid orientation and resolution are presented.

  19. Automated Transition State Search and Its Application to Diverse Types of Organic Reactions.

    PubMed

    Jacobson, Leif D; Bochevarov, Art D; Watson, Mark A; Hughes, Thomas F; Rinaldo, David; Ehrlich, Stephan; Steinbrecher, Thomas B; Vaitheeswaran, S; Philipp, Dean M; Halls, Mathew D; Friesner, Richard A

    2017-11-14

    Transition state search is at the center of multiple types of computational chemical predictions related to mechanistic investigations, reactivity and regioselectivity predictions, and catalyst design. The process of finding transition states in practice is, however, a laborious multistep operation that requires significant user involvement. Here, we report a highly automated workflow designed to locate transition states for a given elementary reaction with minimal setup overhead. The only essential inputs required from the user are the structures of the separated reactants and products. The seamless workflow combining computational technologies from the fields of cheminformatics, molecular mechanics, and quantum chemistry automatically finds the most probable correspondence between the atoms in the reactants and the products, generates a transition state guess, launches a transition state search through a combined approach involving the relaxing string method and the quadratic synchronous transit, and finally validates the transition state via the analysis of the reactive chemical bonds and imaginary vibrational frequencies as well as by the intrinsic reaction coordinate method. Our approach does not target any specific reaction type, nor does it depend on training data; instead, it is meant to be of general applicability for a wide variety of reaction types. The workflow is highly flexible, permitting modifications such as a choice of accuracy, level of theory, basis set, or solvation treatment. Successfully located transition states can be used for setting up transition state guesses in related reactions, saving computational time and increasing the probability of success. The utility and performance of the method are demonstrated in applications to transition state searches in reactions typical for organic chemistry, medicinal chemistry, and homogeneous catalysis research. In particular, applications of our code to Michael additions, hydrogen abstractions

  20. Time delay and long-range connection induced synchronization transitions in Newman-Watts small-world neuronal networks.

    PubMed

    Qian, Yu

    2014-01-01

    The synchronization transitions in Newman-Watts small-world neuronal networks (SWNNs) induced by time delay τ and long-range connection (LRC) probability P have been investigated by synchronization parameter and space-time plots. Four distinct parameter regions, that is, asynchronous region, transition region, synchronous region, and oscillatory region have been discovered at certain LRC probability P = 1.0 as time delay is increased. Interestingly, desynchronization is observed in oscillatory region. More importantly, we consider the spatiotemporal patterns obtained in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs are the competition results between long-range drivings (LRDs) and neighboring interactions. In addition, for moderate time delay, the synchronization of neuronal network can be enhanced remarkably by increasing LRC probability. Furthermore, lag synchronization has been found between weak synchronization and complete synchronization as LRC probability P is a little less than 1.0. Finally, the two necessary conditions, moderate time delay and large numbers of LRCs, are exposed explicitly for synchronization in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs.

  1. Time Delay and Long-Range Connection Induced Synchronization Transitions in Newman-Watts Small-World Neuronal Networks

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Yu

    2014-01-01

    The synchronization transitions in Newman-Watts small-world neuronal networks (SWNNs) induced by time delay and long-range connection (LRC) probability have been investigated by synchronization parameter and space-time plots. Four distinct parameter regions, that is, asynchronous region, transition region, synchronous region, and oscillatory region have been discovered at certain LRC probability as time delay is increased. Interestingly, desynchronization is observed in oscillatory region. More importantly, we consider the spatiotemporal patterns obtained in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs are the competition results between long-range drivings (LRDs) and neighboring interactions. In addition, for moderate time delay, the synchronization of neuronal network can be enhanced remarkably by increasing LRC probability. Furthermore, lag synchronization has been found between weak synchronization and complete synchronization as LRC probability is a little less than 1.0. Finally, the two necessary conditions, moderate time delay and large numbers of LRCs, are exposed explicitly for synchronization in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs. PMID:24810595

  2. Energy Landscape and Transition State of Protein-Protein Association

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alsallaq, Ramzi; Zhou, Huan-Xiang

    2006-11-01

    Formation of a stereospecific protein complex is favored by specific interactions between two proteins but disfavored by the loss of translational and rotational freedom. Echoing the protein folding process, we have previously proposed a transition state for protein-protein association. Here we clarify the specification of the transition state by working with two toy models for protein association. The models demonstrate that a sharp transition between the bound state with numerous short-range interactions but restricted translation and rotational freedom and the unbound state with at most a small number of interactions but expanded configurational freedom. This transition sets the outer boundary of the bound state as well as the transition state for association. The energy landscape is funnel-like, with the deep well of the bound state surrounded by a broad shallow basin. This formalism of protein-protein association is applied to four protein-protein complexes, and is found to give accurate predictions for the effects of charge mutations and ionic strength on the association rates.

  3. Stochastic optimal operation of reservoirs based on copula functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Xiao-hui; Tan, Qiao-feng; Wang, Xu; Wang, Hao; Wen, Xin; Wang, Chao; Zhang, Jing-wen

    2018-02-01

    Stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) has been widely used to derive operating policies for reservoirs considering streamflow uncertainties. In SDP, there is a need to calculate the transition probability matrix more accurately and efficiently in order to improve the economic benefit of reservoir operation. In this study, we proposed a stochastic optimization model for hydropower generation reservoirs, in which 1) the transition probability matrix was calculated based on copula functions; and 2) the value function of the last period was calculated by stepwise iteration. Firstly, the marginal distribution of stochastic inflow in each period was built and the joint distributions of adjacent periods were obtained using the three members of the Archimedean copulas, based on which the conditional probability formula was derived. Then, the value in the last period was calculated by a simple recursive equation with the proposed stepwise iteration method and the value function was fitted with a linear regression model. These improvements were incorporated into the classic SDP and applied to the case study in Ertan reservoir, China. The results show that the transition probability matrix can be more easily and accurately obtained by the proposed copula function based method than conventional methods based on the observed or synthetic streamflow series, and the reservoir operation benefit can also be increased.

  4. Microstructure-Sensitive Extreme Value Probabilities for High Cycle Fatigue of Ni-Base Superalloy IN100 (Preprint)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-03-01

    transition fatigue regimes; however, microplasticity (i.e., heterogeneous plasticity at the scale of microstructure) is relevant to understanding fatigue...and Socie [57] considered the affect of microplastic 14 Microstructure-Sensitive Extreme Value Probabilities for High Cycle Fatigue of Ni-Base...considers the local stress state as affected by intergranular interactions and microplasticity . For the calculations given below, the volumes over which

  5. Dynamical quantum phase transitions: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heyl, Markus

    2018-05-01

    Quantum theory provides an extensive framework for the description of the equilibrium properties of quantum matter. Yet experiments in quantum simulators have now opened up a route towards the generation of quantum states beyond this equilibrium paradigm. While these states promise to show properties not constrained by equilibrium principles, such as the equal a priori probability of the microcanonical ensemble, identifying the general properties of nonequilibrium quantum dynamics remains a major challenge, especially in view of the lack of conventional concepts such as free energies. The theory of dynamical quantum phase transitions attempts to identify such general principles by lifting the concept of phase transitions to coherent quantum real-time evolution. This review provides a pedagogical introduction to this field. Starting from the general setting of nonequilibrium dynamics in closed quantum many-body systems, we give the definition of dynamical quantum phase transitions as phase transitions in time with physical quantities becoming nonanalytic at critical times. We summarize the achieved theoretical advances as well as the first experimental observations, and furthermore provide an outlook to major open questions as well as future directions of research.

  6. Dynamical quantum phase transitions: a review.

    PubMed

    Heyl, Markus

    2018-05-01

    Quantum theory provides an extensive framework for the description of the equilibrium properties of quantum matter. Yet experiments in quantum simulators have now opened up a route towards the generation of quantum states beyond this equilibrium paradigm. While these states promise to show properties not constrained by equilibrium principles, such as the equal a priori probability of the microcanonical ensemble, identifying the general properties of nonequilibrium quantum dynamics remains a major challenge, especially in view of the lack of conventional concepts such as free energies. The theory of dynamical quantum phase transitions attempts to identify such general principles by lifting the concept of phase transitions to coherent quantum real-time evolution. This review provides a pedagogical introduction to this field. Starting from the general setting of nonequilibrium dynamics in closed quantum many-body systems, we give the definition of dynamical quantum phase transitions as phase transitions in time with physical quantities becoming nonanalytic at critical times. We summarize the achieved theoretical advances as well as the first experimental observations, and furthermore provide an outlook to major open questions as well as future directions of research.

  7. A brief introduction to probability.

    PubMed

    Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

  8. Probability of satellite collision

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  9. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  10. Accurate modeling of defects in graphene transport calculations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linhart, Lukas; Burgdörfer, Joachim; Libisch, Florian

    2018-01-01

    We present an approach for embedding defect structures modeled by density functional theory into large-scale tight-binding simulations. We extract local tight-binding parameters for the vicinity of the defect site using Wannier functions. In the transition region between the bulk lattice and the defect the tight-binding parameters are continuously adjusted to approach the bulk limit far away from the defect. This embedding approach allows for an accurate high-level treatment of the defect orbitals using as many as ten nearest neighbors while keeping a small number of nearest neighbors in the bulk to render the overall computational cost reasonable. As an example of our approach, we consider an extended graphene lattice decorated with Stone-Wales defects, flower defects, double vacancies, or silicon substitutes. We predict distinct scattering patterns mirroring the defect symmetries and magnitude that should be experimentally accessible.

  11. Advanced IR System For Supersonic Boundary Layer Transition Flight Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Banks, Daniel W.

    2008-01-01

    Infrared thermography is a preferred method investigating transition in flight: a) Global and non-intrusive; b) Can also be used to visualize and characterize other fluid mechanic phenomena such as shock impingement, separation etc. F-15 based system was updated with new camera and digital video recorder to support high Reynolds number transition tests. Digital Recording improves image quality and analysis capability and allows for accurate quantitative (temperature) measurements and greater enhancement through image processing allows analysis of smaller scale phenomena.

  12. Precise calculation of a bond percolation transition and survival rates of nodes in a complex network.

    PubMed

    Kawamoto, Hirokazu; Takayasu, Hideki; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft; Takayasu, Misako

    2015-01-01

    Through precise numerical analysis, we reveal a new type of universal loopless percolation transition in randomly removed complex networks. As an example of a real-world network, we apply our analysis to a business relation network consisting of approximately 3,000,000 links among 300,000 firms and observe the transition with critical exponents close to the mean-field values taking into account the finite size effect. We focus on the largest cluster at the critical point, and introduce survival probability as a new measure characterizing the robustness of each node. We also discuss the relation between survival probability and k-shell decomposition.

  13. Decisions under risk in Parkinson's disease: preserved evaluation of probability and magnitude.

    PubMed

    Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; McKeown, Martin J; Appel-Cresswell, Silke; Stoessl, A Jon; Barton, Jason J S

    2013-11-01

    Unmedicated Parkinson's disease patients tend to be risk-averse while dopaminergic treatment causes a tendency to take risks. While dopamine agonists may result in clinically apparent impulse control disorders, treatment with levodopa also causes shift in behaviour associated with an enhanced response to rewards. Two important determinants in decision-making are how subjects perceive the magnitude and probability of outcomes. Our objective was to determine if patients with Parkinson's disease on or off levodopa showed differences in their perception of value when making decisions under risk. The Vancouver Gambling task presents subjects with a choice between one prospect with larger outcome and a second with higher probability. Eighteen age-matched controls and eighteen patients with Parkinson's disease before and after levodopa were tested. In the Gain Phase subjects chose between one prospect with higher probability and another with larger reward to maximize their gains. In the Loss Phase, subjects played to minimize their losses. Patients with Parkinson's disease, on or off levodopa, were similar to controls when evaluating gains. However, in the Loss Phase before levodopa, they were more likely to avoid the prospect with lower probability but larger loss, as indicated by the steeper slope of their group psychometric function (t(24) = 2.21, p = 0.04). Modelling with prospect theory suggested that this was attributable to a 28% overestimation of the magnitude of loss, rather than an altered perception of its probability. While pre-medicated patients with Parkinson's disease show risk-aversion for large losses, patients on levodopa have normal perception of magnitude and probability for both loss and gain. The finding of accurate and normally biased decisions under risk in medicated patients with PD is important because it indicates that, if there is indeed anomalous risk-seeking behaviour in such a cohort, it may derive from abnormalities in components of

  14. Variational Identification of Markovian Transition States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martini, Linda; Kells, Adam; Covino, Roberto; Hummer, Gerhard; Buchete, Nicolae-Viorel; Rosta, Edina

    2017-07-01

    We present a method that enables the identification and analysis of conformational Markovian transition states from atomistic or coarse-grained molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories. Our algorithm is presented by using both analytical models and examples from MD simulations of the benchmark system helix-forming peptide Ala5 , and of larger, biomedically important systems: the 15-lipoxygenase-2 enzyme (15-LOX-2), the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) protein, and the Mga2 fungal transcription factor. The analysis of 15-LOX-2 uses data generated exclusively from biased umbrella sampling simulations carried out at the hybrid ab initio density functional theory (DFT) quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) level of theory. In all cases, our method automatically identifies the corresponding transition states and metastable conformations in a variationally optimal way, with the input of a set of relevant coordinates, by accurately reproducing the intrinsic slowest relaxation rate of each system. Our approach offers a general yet easy-to-implement analysis method that provides unique insight into the molecular mechanism and the rare but crucial (i.e., rate-limiting) transition states occurring along conformational transition paths in complex dynamical systems such as molecular trajectories.

  15. Accurate Calculation of Oscillator Strengths for CI II Lines Using Non-orthogonal Wavefunctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tayal, S. S.

    2004-01-01

    Non-orthogonal orbitals technique in the multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock approach is used to calculate oscillator strengths and transition probabilities for allowed and intercombination lines in Cl II. The relativistic corrections are included through the Breit-Pauli Hamiltonian. The Cl II wave functions show strong term dependence. The non-orthogonal orbitals are used to describe the term dependence of radial functions. Large sets of spectroscopic and correlation functions are chosen to describe adequately strong interactions in the 3s(sup 2)3p(sup 3)nl (sup 3)Po, (sup 1)Po and (sup 3)Do Rydberg series and to properly account for the important correlation and relaxation effects. The length and velocity forms of oscillator strength show good agreement for most transitions. The calculated radiative lifetime for the 3s3p(sup 5) (sup 3)Po state is in good agreement with experiment.

  16. Accurately controlled sequential self-folding structures by polystyrene film

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Dongping; Yang, Yang; Chen, Yong; Lan, Xing; Tice, Jesse

    2017-08-01

    Four-dimensional (4D) printing overcomes the traditional fabrication limitations by designing heterogeneous materials to enable the printed structures evolve over time (the fourth dimension) under external stimuli. Here, we present a simple 4D printing of self-folding structures that can be sequentially and accurately folded. When heated above their glass transition temperature pre-strained polystyrene films shrink along the XY plane. In our process silver ink traces printed on the film are used to provide heat stimuli by conducting current to trigger the self-folding behavior. The parameters affecting the folding process are studied and discussed. Sequential folding and accurately controlled folding angles are achieved by using printed ink traces and angle lock design. Theoretical analyses are done to guide the design of the folding processes. Programmable structures such as a lock and a three-dimensional antenna are achieved to test the feasibility and potential applications of this method. These self-folding structures change their shapes after fabrication under controlled stimuli (electric current) and have potential applications in the fields of electronics, consumer devices, and robotics. Our design and fabrication method provides an easy way by using silver ink printed on polystyrene films to 4D print self-folding structures for electrically induced sequential folding with angular control.

  17. Corrigendum to ;Relativistic calculations for M1-type transitions in 4dN configurations of W29+ - W37+ ions; [At. Data Nucl. Data Tables 98 (2012) 19-42

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonauskas, V.; Gaigalas, G.; Kučas, S.

    2018-01-01

    In the original paper [1], some minor misprints have occurred in Table 3 for wavelengths of the W32+ and W34+ ions. Furthermore, from the FAC calculations, the emission probabilities instead ofabsorption probabilities were presented (Table 3). The wavelengths, transition probabilities and oscillator strengths of magnetic dipole transitions were misprinted for W31+, W32+, W33+, and W34+ in Table 4.

  18. Explore Stochastic Instabilities of Periodic Points by Transition Path Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Yu; Lin, Ling; Zhou, Xiang

    2016-06-01

    We consider the noise-induced transitions from a linearly stable periodic orbit consisting of T periodic points in randomly perturbed discrete logistic map. Traditional large deviation theory and asymptotic analysis at small noise limit cannot distinguish the quantitative difference in noise-induced stochastic instabilities among the T periodic points. To attack this problem, we generalize the transition path theory to the discrete-time continuous-space stochastic process. In our first criterion to quantify the relative instability among T periodic points, we use the distribution of the last passage location related to the transitions from the whole periodic orbit to a prescribed disjoint set. This distribution is related to individual contributions to the transition rate from each periodic points. The second criterion is based on the competency of the transition paths associated with each periodic point. Both criteria utilize the reactive probability current in the transition path theory. Our numerical results for the logistic map reveal the transition mechanism of escaping from the stable periodic orbit and identify which periodic point is more prone to lose stability so as to make successful transitions under random perturbations.

  19. Energies and transition rates in Ge-like ions between In XVIII and Ce XXVII

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Zhan-Bin; Wang, Kai

    2017-03-01

    The energy levels, wavelengths, oscillator strengths, and radiative electric dipole (E1), magnetic quadrupole (M2) transition probabilities for Ge-like ions (49 ≤ Z ≤ 58) among the lowest 88 fine-structure levels belonging to the ([Ar] 3d10)4s24p2, ([Ar] 3d10)4s24p4d, ([Ar] 3d10)4s4p3, ([Ar] 3d10)4s4p24d, ([Ar] 3d10)4s24d2, and ([Ar] 3d10)4p4 configurations are calculated using the fully relativistic multiconfiguration Dirac-Fock (MCDF) approach including the correlations within the n = 7 complex, Breit interaction (BI) and quantum electrodynamics (QED) effects. For comparison, an independent calculation using the many-body perturbation theory (MBPT) method is also carried out to confirm the present energy levels accuracy, taking Xe XXIII as an example. The present results are compared with available experimental and theoretical results and good agreement is obtained. These accurate theoretical data are useful for controlled thermonuclear fusion research, plasma physics, and astrophysical applications.

  20. Effective theory for the nonrigid rotor in an electromagnetic field: Toward accurate and precise calculations of E2 transitions in deformed nuclei

    DOE PAGES

    Coello Pérez, Eduardo A.; Papenbrock, Thomas F.

    2015-07-27

    In this paper, we present a model-independent approach to electric quadrupole transitions of deformed nuclei. Based on an effective theory for axially symmetric systems, the leading interactions with electromagnetic fields enter as minimal couplings to gauge potentials, while subleading corrections employ gauge-invariant nonminimal couplings. This approach yields transition operators that are consistent with the Hamiltonian, and the power counting of the effective theory provides us with theoretical uncertainty estimates. We successfully test the effective theory in homonuclear molecules that exhibit a large separation of scales. For ground-state band transitions of rotational nuclei, the effective theory describes data well within theoreticalmore » uncertainties at leading order. To probe the theory at subleading order, data with higher precision would be valuable. For transitional nuclei, next-to-leading-order calculations and the high-precision data are consistent within the theoretical uncertainty estimates. In addition, we study the faint interband transitions within the effective theory and focus on the E2 transitions from the 0 2 + band (the “β band”) to the ground-state band. Here the predictions from the effective theory are consistent with data for several nuclei, thereby proposing a solution to a long-standing challenge.« less

  1. Entropy from State Probabilities: Hydration Entropy of Cations

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Entropy is an important energetic quantity determining the progression of chemical processes. We propose a new approach to obtain hydration entropy directly from probability density functions in state space. We demonstrate the validity of our approach for a series of cations in aqueous solution. Extensive validation of simulation results was performed. Our approach does not make prior assumptions about the shape of the potential energy landscape and is capable of calculating accurate hydration entropy values. Sampling times in the low nanosecond range are sufficient for the investigated ionic systems. Although the presented strategy is at the moment limited to systems for which a scalar order parameter can be derived, this is not a principal limitation of the method. The strategy presented is applicable to any chemical system where sufficient sampling of conformational space is accessible, for example, by computer simulations. PMID:23651109

  2. Advanced ab initio relativistic calculations of transition probabilities for some O I and O III emission lines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, T. V. B.; Chantler, C. T.; Lowe, J. A.; Grant, I. P.

    2014-06-01

    This work presents new ab initio relativistic calculations using the multiconfiguration Dirac-Hartree-Fock method of some O I and O III transition lines detected in B-type and Wolf-Rayet stars. Our results are the first able to be presented in both the length and velocity gauges, with excellent gauge convergence. Compared to previous experimental and theoretical uncertainties of up to 50 per cent, our accuracies appear to be in the range of 0.33-5.60 per cent, with gauge convergence up to 0.6 per cent. Similar impressive convergence of the calculated energies is also shown. Two sets of theoretical computations are compared with earlier tabulated measurements. Excellent agreement is obtained with one set of transitions but an interesting and consistent discrepancy exists between the current work and the prior literature, deserving of future experimental studies.

  3. ERP Correlates of Verbal and Numerical Probabilities in Risky Choices: A Two-Stage Probability Processing View

    PubMed Central

    Li, Shu; Du, Xue-Lei; Li, Qi; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Wang, Yun; Rao, Li-Lin

    2016-01-01

    Two kinds of probability expressions, verbal and numerical, have been used to characterize the uncertainty that people face. However, the question of whether verbal and numerical probabilities are cognitively processed in a similar manner remains unresolved. From a levels-of-processing perspective, verbal and numerical probabilities may be processed differently during early sensory processing but similarly in later semantic-associated operations. This event-related potential (ERP) study investigated the neural processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. The results showed that verbal probability and numerical probability elicited different N1 amplitudes but that verbal and numerical probabilities elicited similar N2 and P3 waveforms in response to different levels of probability (high to low). These results were consistent with a levels-of-processing framework and suggest some internal consistency between the cognitive processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. Our findings shed light on possible mechanism underlying probability expression and may provide the neural evidence to support the translation of verbal to numerical probabilities (or vice versa). PMID:26834612

  4. Effect of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and Voluntary Industry Health Warning Labels on Passage of Mandated Cigarette Warning Labels From 1965 to 2012: Transition Probability and Event History Analyses

    PubMed Central

    Sanders-Jackson, Ashley N.; Song, Anna V.; Hiilamo, Heikki

    2013-01-01

    Objectives. We quantified the pattern and passage rate of cigarette package health warning labels (HWLs), including the effect of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and HWLs voluntarily implemented by tobacco companies. Methods. We used transition probability matrices to describe the pattern of HWL passage and change rate in 4 periods. We used event history analysis to estimate the effect of the FCTC on adoption and to compare that effect between countries with voluntary and mandatory HWLs. Results. The number of HWLs passed during each period accelerated, from a transition rate among countries that changed from 2.42 per year in 1965–1977 to 6.71 in 1977–1984, 8.42 in 1984–2003, and 22.33 in 2003–2012. The FCTC significantly accelerated passage of FCTC-compliant HWLs for countries with initially mandatory policies with a hazard of 1.27 per year (95% confidence interval = 1.11, 1.45), but only marginally increased the hazard for countries that had an industry voluntary HWL of 1.68 per year (95% confidence interval = 0.95, 2.97). Conclusions. Passage of HWLs is accelerating, and the FCTC is associated with further acceleration. Industry voluntary HWLs slowed mandated HWLs. PMID:24028248

  5. A time-accurate finite volume method valid at all flow velocities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, S.-W.

    1993-01-01

    A finite volume method to solve the Navier-Stokes equations at all flow velocities (e.g., incompressible, subsonic, transonic, supersonic and hypersonic flows) is presented. The numerical method is based on a finite volume method that incorporates a pressure-staggered mesh and an incremental pressure equation for the conservation of mass. Comparison of three generally accepted time-advancing schemes, i.e., Simplified Marker-and-Cell (SMAC), Pressure-Implicit-Splitting of Operators (PISO), and Iterative-Time-Advancing (ITA) scheme, are made by solving a lid-driven polar cavity flow and self-sustained oscillatory flows over circular and square cylinders. Calculated results show that the ITA is the most stable numerically and yields the most accurate results. The SMAC is the most efficient computationally and is as stable as the ITA. It is shown that the PISO is the most weakly convergent and it exhibits an undesirable strong dependence on the time-step size. The degenerated numerical results obtained using the PISO are attributed to its second corrector step that cause the numerical results to deviate further from a divergence free velocity field. The accurate numerical results obtained using the ITA is attributed to its capability to resolve the nonlinearity of the Navier-Stokes equations. The present numerical method that incorporates the ITA is used to solve an unsteady transitional flow over an oscillating airfoil and a chemically reacting flow of hydrogen in a vitiated supersonic airstream. The turbulence fields in these flow cases are described using multiple-time-scale turbulence equations. For the unsteady transitional over an oscillating airfoil, the fluid flow is described using ensemble-averaged Navier-Stokes equations defined on the Lagrangian-Eulerian coordinates. It is shown that the numerical method successfully predicts the large dynamic stall vortex (DSV) and the trailing edge vortex (TEV) that are periodically generated by the oscillating airfoil

  6. Probability assessment with response times and confidence in perception and knowledge.

    PubMed

    Petrusic, William M; Baranski, Joseph V

    2009-02-01

    In both a perceptual and a general knowledge comparison task, participants categorized the time they took to decide, selecting one of six categories ordered from "Slow" to Fast". Subsequently, they rated confidence on a six-category scale ranging from "50%" to "100%". Participants were able to accurately scale their response times thus enabling the treatment of the response time (RT) categories as potential confidence categories. Probability assessment analyses of RTs revealed indices of over/underconfidence, calibration, and resolution, each subject to the "hard-easy" effect, comparable to those obtained with the actual confidence ratings. However, in both the perceptual and knowledge domains, resolution (i.e., the ability to use the confidence categories to distinguish correct from incorrect decisions) was significantly better with confidence ratings than with RT categorization. Generally, comparable results were obtained with scaling of the objective RTs, although subjective categorization of RTs provided probability assessment indices superior to those obtained from objective RTs. Taken together, the findings do not support the view that confidence arises from a scaling of decision time.

  7. Characterizing Giant Exoplanets through Multiwavelength Transit Observations: HAT-P-57 b

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garver, Bethany Ray; Cole, Jackson Lane; Gardner, Cristilyn N.; Jarka, Kyla L.; Kar, Aman; McGough, Aylin M.; PeQueen, David Jeffrey; Rivera, Daniel Ivan; Kasper, David; Jang-Condell, Hannah; Kobulnicky, Henry; Dale, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    Giant planets have thick atmospheres. By observing transits through multiple filters at different wavelengths, we can make constraints on the atmospheres of those planets. When the planets are observed via transit, Rayleigh scattering can cause the transit depth to vary with wavelength. HAT-P-57 b is a giant exoplanet that is observable using the 2.3-meter telescope at the Wyoming Infrared Observatory. We observed half of a transit of HAT-P-57 b using Sloan filters g, r, i, and z. We present early results showing a variation in calculated radius with wavelength. Further observations are needed to confirm this variation and measure it more accurately. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation under REU grant AST 1560461.

  8. Applying generalized stochastic Petri nets to manufacturing systems containing nonexponential transition functions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, James F., III; Desrochers, Alan A.

    1991-01-01

    Generalized stochastic Petri nets (GSPNs) are applied to flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs). Throughput subnets and s-transitions are presented. Two FMS examples containing nonexponential distributions which were analyzed in previous papers by queuing theory and probability theory, respectively, are treated using GSPNs developed using throughput subnets and s-transitions. The GSPN results agree with the previous results, and developing and analyzing the GSPN models are straightforward and relatively easy compared to other methodologies.

  9. Fine-temporal forecasting of outbreak probability and severity: Ross River virus in Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Koolhof, I S; Bettiol, S; Carver, S

    2017-10-01

    Health warnings of mosquito-borne disease risk require forecasts that are accurate at fine-temporal resolutions (weekly scales); however, most forecasting is coarse (monthly). We use environmental and Ross River virus (RRV) surveillance to predict weekly outbreak probabilities and incidence spanning tropical, semi-arid, and Mediterranean regions of Western Australia (1991-2014). Hurdle and linear models were used to predict outbreak probabilities and incidence respectively, using time-lagged environmental variables. Forecast accuracy was assessed by model fit and cross-validation. Residual RRV notification data were also examined against mitigation expenditure for one site, Mandurah 2007-2014. Models were predictive of RRV activity, except at one site (Capel). Minimum temperature was an important predictor of RRV outbreaks and incidence at all predicted sites. Precipitation was more likely to cause outbreaks and greater incidence among tropical and semi-arid sites. While variable, mitigation expenditure coincided positively with increased RRV incidence (r 2 = 0·21). Our research demonstrates capacity to accurately predict mosquito-borne disease outbreaks and incidence at fine-temporal resolutions. We apply our findings, developing a user-friendly tool enabling managers to easily adopt this research to forecast region-specific RRV outbreaks and incidence. Approaches here may be of value to fine-scale forecasting of RRV in other areas of Australia, and other mosquito-borne diseases.

  10. AGE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITY OF LIVE-BIRTH WITH OOCYTE CRYOPRESERVATION: AN INDIVIDUAL PATIENT DATA META-ANALYSIS

    PubMed Central

    CIL, AYLIN PELIN; BANG, HEEJUNG; OKTAY, KUTLUK

    2013-01-01

    Objective To estimate age-specific probabilities of live-birth with oocyte cryopreservation in non-donor (ND) egg cycles. Design Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. Setting Assisted reproduction centers. Patients Infertile patients undergoing ND mature oocyte cryopreservation. Interventions PubMed was searched for the clinical studies on oocyte cryopreservation from January 1996 through July 2011. Randomized and non-randomized studies that used ND frozen-thawed mature oocytes with pregnancy outcomes were included. Authors of eligible studies were contacted to obtain IPD. Main outcome measures Live-birth probabilities based on age, cryopreservation method, and the number of oocytes thawed, injected, or embryos transferred. Results Original data from 10 studies including 2265 cycles from 1805 patients were obtained. Live-birth success rates declined with age regardless of the freezing technique. Despite this age-induced compromise, live-births continued to occur as late as to the ages of 42 and 44 with slowly-frozen (SF) and vitrified (VF) oocytes, respectively. Estimated probabilities of live-birth for VF oocytes were higher than those for SF. Conclusions The live-birth probabilities we calculated would enable more accurate counseling and informed decision of infertile women who consider oocyte cryopreservation. Given the success probabilities, we suggest that policy-makers should consider oocyte freezing as an integral part of prevention and treatment of infertility. PMID:23706339

  11. Glass transition temperature and topological constraints of sodium borophosphate glass-forming liquids.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Qi; Zeng, Huidan; Liu, Zhao; Ren, Jing; Chen, Guorong; Wang, Zhaofeng; Sun, Luyi; Zhao, Donghui

    2013-09-28

    Sodium borophosphate glasses exhibit intriguing mixed network former effect, with the nonlinear compositional dependence of their glass transition temperature as one of the most typical examples. In this paper, we establish the widely applicable topological constraint model of sodium borophosphate mixed network former glasses to explain the relationship between the internal structure and nonlinear changes of glass transition temperature. The application of glass topology network was discussed in detail in terms of the unified methodology for the quantitative distribution of each coordinated boron and phosphorus units and glass transition temperature dependence of atomic constraints. An accurate prediction of composition scaling of the glass transition temperature was obtained based on topological constraint model.

  12. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  13. Medical concepts related to individual risk are better explained with "plausibility" rather than "probability".

    PubMed

    Grossi, Enzo

    2005-09-27

    The concept of risk has pervaded medical literature in the last decades and has become a familiar topic, and the concept of probability, linked to binary logic approach, is commonly applied in epidemiology and clinical medicine. The application of probability theory to groups of individuals is quite straightforward but can pose communication challenges at individual level. Few articles by the way have tried to focus the concept of "risk" at the individual subject level rather than at population level. The author has reviewed the conceptual framework which has led to the use of probability theory in the medical field in a time when the principal causes of death were represented by acute disease often of infective origin. In the present scenario, in which chronic degenerative disease dominate and there are smooth transitions between health and disease the use of fuzzy logic rather than binary logic would be more appropriate. The use of fuzzy logic in which more than two possible truth-value assignments are allowed overcomes the trap of probability theory when dealing with uncertain outcomes, thereby making the meaning of a certain prognostic statement easier to understand by the patient. At individual subject level the recourse to the term plausibility, related to fuzzy logic, would help the physician to communicate to the patient more efficiently in comparison with the term probability, related to binary logic. This would represent an evident advantage for the transfer of medical evidences to individual subjects.

  14. Trajectory-based understanding of the quantum-classical transition for barrier scattering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chou, Chia-Chun

    2018-06-01

    The quantum-classical transition of wave packet barrier scattering is investigated using a hydrodynamic description in the framework of a nonlinear Schrödinger equation. The nonlinear equation provides a continuous description for the quantum-classical transition of physical systems by introducing a degree of quantumness. Based on the transition equation, the transition trajectory formalism is developed to establish the connection between classical and quantum trajectories. The quantum-classical transition is then analyzed for the scattering of a Gaussian wave packet from an Eckart barrier and the decay of a metastable state. Computational results for the evolution of the wave packet and the transmission probabilities indicate that classical results are recovered when the degree of quantumness tends to zero. Classical trajectories are in excellent agreement with the transition trajectories in the classical limit, except in some regions where transition trajectories cannot cross because of the single-valuedness of the transition wave function. As the computational results demonstrate, the process that the Planck constant tends to zero is equivalent to the gradual removal of quantum effects originating from the quantum potential. This study provides an insightful trajectory interpretation for the quantum-classical transition of wave packet barrier scattering.

  15. Transition paths in single-molecule force spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cossio, Pilar; Hummer, Gerhard; Szabo, Attila

    2018-03-01

    In a typical single-molecule force spectroscopy experiment, the ends of the molecule of interest are connected by long polymer linkers to a pair of mesoscopic beads trapped in the focus of two laser beams. At constant force load, the total extension, i.e., the end-to-end distance of the molecule plus linkers, is measured as a function of time. In the simplest systems, the measured extension fluctuates about two values characteristic of folded and unfolded states, with occasional transitions between them. We have recently shown that molecular (un)folding rates can be recovered from such trajectories, with a small linker correction, as long as the characteristic time of the bead fluctuations is shorter than the residence time in the unfolded (folded) state. Here, we show that accurate measurements of the molecular transition path times require an even faster apparatus response. Transition paths, the trajectory segments in which the molecule (un)folds, are properly resolved only if the beads fluctuate more rapidly than the end-to-end distance of the molecule. Therefore, over a wide regime, the measured rates may be meaningful but not the transition path times. Analytic expressions for the measured mean transition path times are obtained for systems diffusing anisotropically on a two-dimensional free energy surface. The transition path times depend on the properties both of the molecule and of the pulling device.

  16. Structural Transitions in Densifying Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lambiotte, R.; Krapivsky, P. L.; Bhat, U.; Redner, S.

    2016-11-01

    We introduce a minimal generative model for densifying networks in which a new node attaches to a randomly selected target node and also to each of its neighbors with probability p . The networks that emerge from this copying mechanism are sparse for p <1/2 and dense (average degree increasing with number of nodes N ) for p ≥1/2 . The behavior in the dense regime is especially rich; for example, individual network realizations that are built by copying are disparate and not self-averaging. Further, there is an infinite sequence of structural anomalies at p =2/3 , 3/4 , 4/5 , etc., where the N dependences of the number of triangles (3-cliques), 4-cliques, undergo phase transitions. When linking to second neighbors of the target can occur, the probability that the resulting graph is complete—all nodes are connected—is nonzero as N →∞ .

  17. Decision analysis with approximate probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whalen, Thomas

    1992-01-01

    This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

  18. Precise Calculation of a Bond Percolation Transition and Survival Rates of Nodes in a Complex Network

    PubMed Central

    Kawamoto, Hirokazu; Takayasu, Hideki; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft; Takayasu, Misako

    2015-01-01

    Through precise numerical analysis, we reveal a new type of universal loopless percolation transition in randomly removed complex networks. As an example of a real-world network, we apply our analysis to a business relation network consisting of approximately 3,000,000 links among 300,000 firms and observe the transition with critical exponents close to the mean-field values taking into account the finite size effect. We focus on the largest cluster at the critical point, and introduce survival probability as a new measure characterizing the robustness of each node. We also discuss the relation between survival probability and k-shell decomposition. PMID:25885791

  19. Pictures of transit innovations : collected from federally supported research and development projects

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2000-01-01

    This booklet is picture-driven. As such, it cannot be considered an accurate historical record of transit research and development sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation's Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA), and its successor...

  20. Utilizing Direct Numerical Simulations of Transition and Turbulence in Design Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rai, Man M.

    2015-01-01

    Design optimization methods that use the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations with the associated turbulence and transition models, or other model-based forms of the governing equations, may result in aerodynamic designs with actual performance levels that are noticeably different from the expected values because of the complexity of modeling turbulence/transition accurately in certain flows. Flow phenomena such as wake-blade interaction and trailing edge vortex shedding in turbines and compressors (examples of such flows) may require a computational approach that is free of transition/turbulence models, such as direct numerical simulations (DNS), for the underlying physics to be computed accurately. Here we explore the possibility of utilizing DNS data in designing a turbine blade section. The ultimate objective is to substantially reduce differences between predicted performance metrics and those obtained in reality. The redesign of a typical low-pressure turbine blade section with the goal of reducing total pressure loss in the row is provided as an example. The basic ideas presented here are of course just as applicable elsewhere in aerodynamic shape optimization as long as the computational costs are not excessive.

  1. Accurate phase measurements for thick spherical objects using optical quadrature microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warger, William C., II; DiMarzio, Charles A.

    2009-02-01

    In vitro fertilization (IVF) procedures have resulted in the birth of over three million babies since 1978. Yet the live birth rate in the United States was only 34% in 2005, with 32% of the successful pregnancies resulting in multiple births. These multiple pregnancies were directly attributed to the transfer of multiple embryos to increase the probability that a single, healthy embryo was included. Current viability markers used for IVF, such as the cell number, symmetry, size, and fragmentation, are analyzed qualitatively with differential interference contrast (DIC) microscopy. However, this method is not ideal for quantitative measures beyond the 8-cell stage of development because the cells overlap and obstruct the view within and below the cluster of cells. We have developed the phase-subtraction cell-counting method that uses the combination of DIC and optical quadrature microscopy (OQM) to count the number of cells accurately in live mouse embryos beyond the 8-cell stage. We have also created a preliminary analysis to measure the cell symmetry, size, and fragmentation quantitatively by analyzing the relative dry mass from the OQM image in conjunction with the phase-subtraction count. In this paper, we will discuss the characterization of OQM with respect to measuring the phase accurately for spherical samples that are much larger than the depth of field. Once fully characterized and verified with human embryos, this methodology could provide the means for a more accurate method to score embryo viability.

  2. How to quantify the transition phase during golf swing performance: Torsional load affects low back complaints during the transition phase.

    PubMed

    Sim, Taeyong; Choi, Ahnryul; Lee, Soeun; Mun, Joung Hwan

    2017-10-01

    The transition phase of a golf swing is considered to be a decisive instant required for a powerful swing. However, at the same time, the low back torsional loads during this phase can have a considerable effect on golf-related low back pain (LBP). Previous efforts to quantify the transition phase were hampered by problems with accuracy due to methodological limitations. In this study, vector-coding technique (VCT) method was proposed as a comprehensive methodology to quantify the precise transition phase and examine low back torsional load. Towards this end, transition phases were assessed using three different methods (VCT, lead hand speed and X-factor stretch) and compared; then, low back torsional load during the transition phase was examined. As a result, the importance of accurate transition phase quantification has been documented. The largest torsional loads were observed in healthy professional golfers (10.23 ± 1.69 N · kg -1 ), followed by professional golfers with a history of LBP (7.93 ± 1.79 N · kg -1 ), healthy amateur golfers (1.79 ± 1.05 N · kg -1 ) and amateur golfers with a history of LBP (0.99 ± 0.87 N · kg -1 ), which order was equal to that of the transition phase magnitudes of each group. These results indicate the relationship between the transition phase and LBP history and the dependency of the torsional load magnitude on the transition phase.

  3. An accurate behavioral model for single-photon avalanche diode statistical performance simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yue; Zhao, Tingchen; Li, Ding

    2018-01-01

    An accurate behavioral model is presented to simulate important statistical performance of single-photon avalanche diodes (SPADs), such as dark count and after-pulsing noise. The derived simulation model takes into account all important generation mechanisms of the two kinds of noise. For the first time, thermal agitation, trap-assisted tunneling and band-to-band tunneling mechanisms are simultaneously incorporated in the simulation model to evaluate dark count behavior of SPADs fabricated in deep sub-micron CMOS technology. Meanwhile, a complete carrier trapping and de-trapping process is considered in afterpulsing model and a simple analytical expression is derived to estimate after-pulsing probability. In particular, the key model parameters of avalanche triggering probability and electric field dependence of excess bias voltage are extracted from Geiger-mode TCAD simulation and this behavioral simulation model doesn't include any empirical parameters. The developed SPAD model is implemented in Verilog-A behavioral hardware description language and successfully operated on commercial Cadence Spectre simulator, showing good universality and compatibility. The model simulation results are in a good accordance with the test data, validating high simulation accuracy.

  4. COMPARATIVE HABITABILITY OF TRANSITING EXOPLANETS

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Barnes, Rory; Meadows, Victoria S.; Evans, Nicole, E-mail: rory@astro.washington.edu

    2015-12-01

    Exoplanet habitability is traditionally assessed by comparing a planet’s semimajor axis to the location of its host star’s “habitable zone,” the shell around a star for which Earth-like planets can possess liquid surface water. The Kepler space telescope has discovered numerous planet candidates near the habitable zone, and many more are expected from missions such as K2, TESS, and PLATO. These candidates often require significant follow-up observations for validation, so prioritizing planets for habitability from transit data has become an important aspect of the search for life in the universe. We propose a method to compare transiting planets for theirmore » potential to support life based on transit data, stellar properties and previously reported limits on planetary emitted flux. For a planet in radiative equilibrium, the emitted flux increases with eccentricity, but decreases with albedo. As these parameters are often unconstrained, there is an “eccentricity-albedo degeneracy” for the habitability of transiting exoplanets. Our method mitigates this degeneracy, includes a penalty for large-radius planets, uses terrestrial mass–radius relationships, and, when available, constraints on eccentricity to compute a number we call the “habitability index for transiting exoplanets” that represents the relative probability that an exoplanet could support liquid surface water. We calculate it for Kepler objects of interest and find that planets that receive between 60% and 90% of the Earth’s incident radiation, assuming circular orbits, are most likely to be habitable. Finally, we make predictions for the upcoming TESS and James Webb Space Telescope missions.« less

  5. The Influence of Phonotactic Probability on Nonword Repetition and Fast Mapping in 3-Year-Olds With a History of Expressive Language Delay.

    PubMed

    MacRoy-Higgins, Michelle; Dalton, Kevin Patrick

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of phonotactic probability on sublexical (phonological) and lexical representations in 3-year-olds who had a history of being late talkers in comparison with their peers with typical language development. Ten 3-year-olds who were late talkers and 10 age-matched typically developing controls completed nonword repetition and fast mapping tasks; stimuli for both experimental procedures differed in phonotactic probability. Both participant groups repeated nonwords containing high phonotactic probability sequences more accurately than nonwords containing low phonotactic probability sequences. Participants with typical language showed an early advantage for fast mapping high phonotactic probability words; children who were late talkers required more exposures to the novel words to show the same advantage for fast mapping high phonotactic probability words. Children who were late talkers showed similar sensitivities to phonotactic probability in nonword repetition and word learning when compared with their peers with no history of language delay. However, word learning in children who were late talkers appeared to be slower when compared with their peers.

  6. Evaluation of drought using SPEI drought class transitions and log-linear models for different agro-ecological regions of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alam, N. M.; Sharma, G. C.; Moreira, Elsa; Jana, C.; Mishra, P. K.; Sharma, N. K.; Mandal, D.

    2017-08-01

    Markov chain and 3-dimensional log-linear models were attempted to model drought class transitions derived from the newly developed drought index the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at a 12 month time scale for six major drought prone areas of India. Log-linear modelling approach has been used to investigate differences relative to drought class transitions using SPEI-12 time series derived form 48 yeas monthly rainfall and temperature data. In this study, the probabilities of drought class transition, the mean residence time, the 1, 2 or 3 months ahead prediction of average transition time between drought classes and the drought severity class have been derived. Seasonality of precipitation has been derived for non-homogeneous Markov chains which could be used to explain the effect of the potential retreat of drought. Quasi-association and Quasi-symmetry log-linear models have been fitted to the drought class transitions derived from SPEI-12 time series. The estimates of odds along with their confidence intervals were obtained to explain the progression of drought and estimation of drought class transition probabilities. For initial months as the drought severity increases the calculated odds shows lower value and the odds decreases for the succeeding months. This indicates that the ratio of expected frequencies of occurrence of transition from drought class to the non-drought class decreases as compared to transition to any drought class when the drought severity of the present class increases. From 3-dimensional log-linear model it is clear that during the last 24 years the drought probability has increased for almost all the six regions. The findings from the present study will immensely help to assess the impact of drought on the gross primary production and to develop future contingent planning in similar regions worldwide.

  7. Two-Photon Transitions in Hydrogen-Like Atoms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinis, Mladen; Stojić, Marko

    Different methods for evaluating two-photon transition amplitudes in hydrogen-like atoms are compared with the improved method of direct summation. Three separate contributions to the two-photon transition probabilities in hydrogen-like atoms are calculated. The first one coming from the summation over discrete intermediate states is performed up to nc(max) = 35. The second contribution from the integration over the continuum states is performed numerically. The third contribution coming from the summation from nc(max) to infinity is calculated in an approximate way using the mean level energy for this region. It is found that the choice of nc(max) controls the numerical error in the calculations and can be used to increase the accuracy of the results much more efficiently than in other methods.

  8. Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

    2018-03-01

    Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

  9. Numerical detection of the Gardner transition in a mean-field glass former.

    PubMed

    Charbonneau, Patrick; Jin, Yuliang; Parisi, Giorgio; Rainone, Corrado; Seoane, Beatriz; Zamponi, Francesco

    2015-07-01

    Recent theoretical advances predict the existence, deep into the glass phase, of a novel phase transition, the so-called Gardner transition. This transition is associated with the emergence of a complex free energy landscape composed of many marginally stable sub-basins within a glass metabasin. In this study, we explore several methods to detect numerically the Gardner transition in a simple structural glass former, the infinite-range Mari-Kurchan model. The transition point is robustly located from three independent approaches: (i) the divergence of the characteristic relaxation time, (ii) the divergence of the caging susceptibility, and (iii) the abnormal tail in the probability distribution function of cage order parameters. We show that the numerical results are fully consistent with the theoretical expectation. The methods we propose may also be generalized to more realistic numerical models as well as to experimental systems.

  10. Center for Modeling of Turbulence and Transition (CMOTT): Research Briefs, 1992

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liou, William W. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    The progress is reported of the Center for Modeling of Turbulence and Transition (CMOTT). The main objective of the CMOTT is to develop, validate and implement the turbulence and transition models for practical engineering flows. The flows of interest are three-dimensional, incompressible and compressible flows with chemical reaction. The research covers two-equation (e.g., k-e) and algebraic Reynolds-stress models, second moment closure models, probability density function (pdf) models, Renormalization Group Theory (RNG), Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS).

  11. Methodology to Estimate Passenger Flow : Riverside Line, Massachusetts Bay Transit Authority, Boston, MA

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1981-08-01

    management techniques to operate local transit systems more efficiently and economically. In particular, the ability to accurately ascertain route specific passenger flows or passenger demands has become essential for adequate resource allocation and...

  12. Knowing where is different from knowing what: Distinct response time profiles and accuracy effects for target location, orientation, and color probability.

    PubMed

    Jabar, Syaheed B; Filipowicz, Alex; Anderson, Britt

    2017-11-01

    When a location is cued, targets appearing at that location are detected more quickly. When a target feature is cued, targets bearing that feature are detected more quickly. These attentional cueing effects are only superficially similar. More detailed analyses find distinct temporal and accuracy profiles for the two different types of cues. This pattern parallels work with probability manipulations, where both feature and spatial probability are known to affect detection accuracy and reaction times. However, little has been done by way of comparing these effects. Are probability manipulations on space and features distinct? In a series of five experiments, we systematically varied spatial probability and feature probability along two dimensions (orientation or color). In addition, we decomposed response times into initiation and movement components. Targets appearing at the probable location were reported more quickly and more accurately regardless of whether the report was based on orientation or color. On the other hand, when either color probability or orientation probability was manipulated, response time and accuracy improvements were specific for that probable feature dimension. Decomposition of the response time benefits demonstrated that spatial probability only affected initiation times, whereas manipulations of feature probability affected both initiation and movement times. As detection was made more difficult, the two effects further diverged, with spatial probability disproportionally affecting initiation times and feature probability disproportionately affecting accuracy. In conclusion, all manipulations of probability, whether spatial or featural, affect detection. However, only feature probability affects perceptual precision, and precision effects are specific to the probable attribute.

  13. Accurate and scalable social recommendation using mixed-membership stochastic block models.

    PubMed

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Moore, Cristopher; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-12-13

    With increasing amounts of information available, modeling and predicting user preferences-for books or articles, for example-are becoming more important. We present a collaborative filtering model, with an associated scalable algorithm, that makes accurate predictions of users' ratings. Like previous approaches, we assume that there are groups of users and of items and that the rating a user gives an item is determined by their respective group memberships. However, we allow each user and each item to belong simultaneously to mixtures of different groups and, unlike many popular approaches such as matrix factorization, we do not assume that users in each group prefer a single group of items. In particular, we do not assume that ratings depend linearly on a measure of similarity, but allow probability distributions of ratings to depend freely on the user's and item's groups. The resulting overlapping groups and predicted ratings can be inferred with an expectation-maximization algorithm whose running time scales linearly with the number of observed ratings. Our approach enables us to predict user preferences in large datasets and is considerably more accurate than the current algorithms for such large datasets.

  14. Accurate and scalable social recommendation using mixed-membership stochastic block models

    PubMed Central

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Moore, Cristopher

    2016-01-01

    With increasing amounts of information available, modeling and predicting user preferences—for books or articles, for example—are becoming more important. We present a collaborative filtering model, with an associated scalable algorithm, that makes accurate predictions of users’ ratings. Like previous approaches, we assume that there are groups of users and of items and that the rating a user gives an item is determined by their respective group memberships. However, we allow each user and each item to belong simultaneously to mixtures of different groups and, unlike many popular approaches such as matrix factorization, we do not assume that users in each group prefer a single group of items. In particular, we do not assume that ratings depend linearly on a measure of similarity, but allow probability distributions of ratings to depend freely on the user’s and item’s groups. The resulting overlapping groups and predicted ratings can be inferred with an expectation-maximization algorithm whose running time scales linearly with the number of observed ratings. Our approach enables us to predict user preferences in large datasets and is considerably more accurate than the current algorithms for such large datasets. PMID:27911773

  15. Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Hurd, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement. In contrast the subjective probability of a stock market gain varies greatly across individuals even though no one has private information and the outcome is the same for everyone. An explanation is that there is considerable variation in accessing and processing information. Further, the subjective probability of a stock market gain is considerably lower than historical averages, providing an explanation for the relatively low frequency of stock holding. An important research objective will be to understand how individuals form their subjective probabilities. PMID:21643535

  16. Binomial Test Method for Determining Probability of Detection Capability for Fracture Critical Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Generazio, Edward R.

    2011-01-01

    The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that for a minimum flaw size and all greater flaw sizes, there is 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence (90/95 POD). Directed design of experiments for probability of detection (DOEPOD) has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields estimates of POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing, where signal amplitudes are reduced to Hit-Miss by using a signal threshold Directed DOEPOD uses a nonparametric approach for the analysis or inspection data that does require any assumptions about the particular functional form of a POD function. The DOEPOD procedure identifies, for a given sample set whether or not the minimum requirement of 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence is demonstrated for a minimum flaw size and for all greater flaw sizes (90/95 POD). The DOEPOD procedures are sequentially executed in order to minimize the number of samples needed to demonstrate that there is a 90/95 POD lower confidence bound at a given flaw size and that the POD is monotonic for flaw sizes exceeding that 90/95 POD flaw size. The conservativeness of the DOEPOD methodology results is discussed. Validated guidelines for binomial estimation of POD for fracture critical inspection are established.

  17. Probability concepts in quality risk management.

    PubMed

    Claycamp, H Gregg

    2012-01-01

    Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

  18. The perception of probability.

    PubMed

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. Transition to parenthood: the role of social interaction and endogenous networks.

    PubMed

    Diaz, Belinda Aparicio; Fent, Thomas; Prskawetz, Alexia; Bernardi, Laura

    2011-05-01

    Empirical studies indicate that the transition to parenthood is influenced by an individual's peer group. To study the mechanisms creating interdependencies across individuals' transition to parenthood and its timing, we apply an agent-based simulation model. We build a one-sex model and provide agents with three different characteristics: age, intended education, and parity. Agents endogenously form their network based on social closeness. Network members may then influence the agents' transition to higher parity levels. Our numerical simulations indicate that accounting for social interactions can explain the shift of first-birth probabilities in Austria during the period 1984 to 2004. Moreover, we apply our model to forecast age-specific fertility rates up to 2016.

  20. Quantum transition and decoherence of levitating polaron on helium film thickness under an electromagnetic field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenfack, S. C.; Fotue, A. J.; Fobasso, M. F. C.; Djomou, J.-R. D.; Tiotsop, M.; Ngouana, K. S. L.; Fai, L. C.

    2017-12-01

    We have studied the transition probability and decoherence time of levitating polaron in helium film thickness. By using a variational method of Pekar type, the ground and the first excited states of polaron are calculated above the liquid-helium film placed on the polar substrate. It is shown that the polaron transits from the ground to the excited state in the presence of an external electromagnetic field in the plane. We have seen that, in the helium film, the effects of the magnetic and electric fields on the polaron are opposite. It is also shown that the energy, transition probability and decoherence time of the polaron depend sensitively on the helium film thickness. We found that decoherence time decreases as a function of increasing electron-phonon coupling strength and the helium film thickness. It is seen that the film thickness can be considered as a new confinement in our system and can be adjusted in order to reduce decoherence.

  1. Ignition probability of polymer-bonded explosives accounting for multiple sources of material stochasticity

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kim, S.; Barua, A.; Zhou, M., E-mail: min.zhou@me.gatech.edu

    2014-05-07

    Accounting for the combined effect of multiple sources of stochasticity in material attributes, we develop an approach that computationally predicts the probability of ignition of polymer-bonded explosives (PBXs) under impact loading. The probabilistic nature of the specific ignition processes is assumed to arise from two sources of stochasticity. The first source involves random variations in material microstructural morphology; the second source involves random fluctuations in grain-binder interfacial bonding strength. The effect of the first source of stochasticity is analyzed with multiple sets of statistically similar microstructures and constant interfacial bonding strength. Subsequently, each of the microstructures in the multiple setsmore » is assigned multiple instantiations of randomly varying grain-binder interfacial strengths to analyze the effect of the second source of stochasticity. Critical hotspot size-temperature states reaching the threshold for ignition are calculated through finite element simulations that explicitly account for microstructure and bulk and interfacial dissipation to quantify the time to criticality (t{sub c}) of individual samples, allowing the probability distribution of the time to criticality that results from each source of stochastic variation for a material to be analyzed. Two probability superposition models are considered to combine the effects of the multiple sources of stochasticity. The first is a parallel and series combination model, and the second is a nested probability function model. Results show that the nested Weibull distribution provides an accurate description of the combined ignition probability. The approach developed here represents a general framework for analyzing the stochasticity in the material behavior that arises out of multiple types of uncertainty associated with the structure, design, synthesis and processing of materials.« less

  2. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhu, Lin; Dai, Zhenxue; Gong, Huili

    Understanding the heterogeneity arising from the complex architecture of sedimentary sequences in alluvial fans is challenging. This study develops a statistical inverse framework in a multi-zone transition probability approach for characterizing the heterogeneity in alluvial fans. An analytical solution of the transition probability matrix is used to define the statistical relationships among different hydrofacies and their mean lengths, integral scales, and volumetric proportions. A statistical inversion is conducted to identify the multi-zone transition probability models and estimate the optimal statistical parameters using the modified Gauss–Newton–Levenberg–Marquardt method. The Jacobian matrix is computed by the sensitivity equation method, which results in anmore » accurate inverse solution with quantification of parameter uncertainty. We use the Chaobai River alluvial fan in the Beijing Plain, China, as an example for elucidating the methodology of alluvial fan characterization. The alluvial fan is divided into three sediment zones. In each zone, the explicit mathematical formulations of the transition probability models are constructed with optimized different integral scales and volumetric proportions. The hydrofacies distributions in the three zones are simulated sequentially by the multi-zone transition probability-based indicator simulations. Finally, the result of this study provides the heterogeneous structure of the alluvial fan for further study of flow and transport simulations.« less

  3. Numerical simulation of dune-flat bed transition and stage‐discharge relationship with hysteresis effect

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shimizu, Yasuyuki; Giri, Sanjay; Yamaguchi, Satomi; Nelson, Jonathan M.

    2009-01-01

    This work presents recent advances on morphodynamic modeling of bed forms under unsteady discharge. This paper includes further development of a morphodynamic model proposed earlier by Giri and Shimizu (2006a). This model reproduces the temporal development of river dunes and accurately replicates the physical properties associated with bed form evolution. Model results appear to provide accurate predictions of bed form geometry and form drag over bed forms for arbitrary steady flows. However, accurate predictions of temporal changes of form drag are key to the prediction of stage‐discharge relation during flood events. Herein, the model capability is extended to replicate the dune–flat bed transition, and in turn, the variation of form drag produced by the temporal growth or decay of bed forms under unsteady flow conditions. Some numerical experiments are performed to analyze hysteresis of the stage‐discharge relationship caused by the transition between dune and flat bed regimes during rising and falling stages of varying flows. The numerical model successfully simulates dune–flat bed transition and the associated hysteresis of the stage‐discharge relationship; this is in good agreement with physical observations but has been treated in the past only using empirical methods. A hypothetical relationship for a sediment parameter (the mean step length) is proposed to a first level of approximation that enables reproduction of the dune–flat bed transition. The proposed numerical model demonstrates its ability to address an important practical problem associated with bed form evolution and flow resistance in varying flows.

  4. Factorization of laser-pulse ionization probabilities in the multiphotonic regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Della Picca, R.; Fiol, J.; Fainstein, P. D.

    2013-09-01

    We present a detailed study of the ionization probability of H and H_{2}^{+} induced by a short intense laser pulse. Starting from a Coulomb-Volkov description of the process we derive a multipole-like expansion where each term is factored into two contributions: one that accounts for the effect of the electromagnetic field on the free-electron final state and a second factor that depends only on the target structure. Such a separation may be valuable to solve complex atomic or molecular systems as well as to interpret the dynamics of the process in simpler terms. We show that the series expansion converges rapidly, and thus the inclusion of the first few terms is sufficient to produce accurate results.

  5. Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Generazio, Edward R.

    2015-01-01

    Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD) Manual v.1.2 The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that there is 95% confidence that the POD is greater than 90% (90/95 POD). Design of experiments for validating probability of detection capability of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) systems (DOEPOD) is a methodology that is implemented via software to serve as a diagnostic tool providing detailed analysis of POD test data, guidance on establishing data distribution requirements, and resolving test issues. DOEPOD demands utilization of observance of occurrences. The DOEPOD capability has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields observed POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing. DOEPOD does not assume prescribed POD logarithmic or similar functions with assumed adequacy over a wide range of flaw sizes and inspection system technologies, so that multi-parameter curve fitting or model optimization approaches to generate a POD curve are not required. DOEPOD applications for supporting inspector qualifications is included.

  6. The CC/DFT Route towards Accurate Structures and Spectroscopic Features for Observed and Elusive Conformers of Flexible Molecules: Pyruvic Acid as Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Barone, Vincenzo; Biczysko, Malgorzata; Bloino, Julien; Cimino, Paola; Penocchio, Emanuele; Puzzarini, Cristina

    2018-01-01

    The structures, relative stabilities as well as the rotational and vibrational spectra of the three low-energy conformers of Pyruvic acid (PA) have been characterized using a state-of-the-art quantum-mechanical approach designed for flexible molecules. By making use of the available experimental rotational constants for several isotopologues of the most stable PA conformer, Tc-PA, the semi-experimental equilibrium structure has been derived. The latter provides a reference for the pure theoretical determination of the equilibrium geometries for all conformers, thus confirming for these structures an accuracy of 0.001 Å and 0.1 deg. for bond lengths and angles, respectively. Highly accurate relative energies of all conformers (Tc-, Tt- and Ct-PA) and of the transition states connecting them are provided along with the thermodynamic properties at low and high temperatures, thus leading to conformational enthalpies accurate to 1 kJ mol−1. Concerning microwave spectroscopy, rotational constants accurate to about 20 MHz are provided for the Tt- and Ct-PA conformers, together with the computed centrifugal-distortion constants and dipole moments required to simulate their rotational spectra. For Ct-PA, vibrational frequencies in the mid-infrared region accurate to 10 cm−1 are reported along with theoretical estimates for the transitions in the near-infrared range, and the corresponding infrared spectrum including fundamental transitions, overtones and combination bands has been simulated. In addition to the new data described above, theoretical results for the Tc- and Tt-PA conformers are compared with all available experimental data to further confirm the accuracy of the hybrid coupled-cluster/density functional theory (CC/DFT) protocol applied in the present study. Finally, we discuss in detail the accuracy of computational models fully based on double-hybrid DFT functionals (mainly at the B2PLYP/aug-cc-pVTZ level) that avoid the use of very expensive CC

  7. The remarkable ability of turbulence model equations to describe transition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilcox, David C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper demonstrates how well the k-omega turbulence model describes the nonlinear growth of flow instabilities from laminar flow into the turbulent flow regime. Viscous modifications are proposed for the k-omega model that yield close agreement with measurements and with Direct Numerical Simulation results for channel and pipe flow. These modifications permit prediction of subtle sublayer details such as maximum dissipation at the surface, k approximately y(exp 2) as y approaches 0, and the sharp peak value of k near the surface. With two transition specific closure coefficients, the model equations accurately predict transition for an incompressible flat-plate boundary layer. The analysis also shows why the k-epsilon model is so difficult to use for predicting transition.

  8. Urban rail transit projects : forecast versus actual ridership and costs. final report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1989-10-01

    Substantial errors in forecasting ridership and costs for the ten rail transit projects reviewed in this report, put forth the possibility that more accurate forecasts would have led decision-makers to select projects other than those reviewed in thi...

  9. Accuracy of physician-estimated probability of brain injury in children with minor head trauma.

    PubMed

    Daymont, Carrie; Klassen, Terry P; Osmond, Martin H

    2015-07-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of physician estimates of the probability of intracranial injury in children with minor head trauma. This is a subanalysis of a large prospective multicentre cohort study performed from July 2001 to November 2005. During data collection for the derivation of a clinical prediction rule for children with minor head trauma, physicians indicated their estimate of the probability of brain injury visible on computed tomography (P-Injury) and the probability of injury requiring intervention (P-Intervention) by choosing one of the following options: 0%, 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 75%, 90%, and 100%. We compared observed frequencies to expected frequencies of injury using Pearson's χ2-test in analyses stratified by the level of each type of predicted probability and by year of age. In 3771 eligible subjects, the mean predicted risk was 4.6% (P-Injury) and 1.4% (P-Intervention). The observed frequency of injury was 4.1% (any injury) and 0.6% (intervention). For all levels of P-Injury from 1% to 40%, the observed frequency of injury was consistent with the expected frequency. The observed frequencies for the 50%, 75%, and 90% levels were lower than expected (p<0.05). For estimates of P-Intervention, the observed frequency was consistently higher than the expected frequency. Physicians underestimated risk for infants (mean P-Intervention 6.2%, actual risk 12.3%, p<0.001). Physician estimates of probability of any brain injury in children were collectively accurate for children with low and moderate degrees of predicted risk. Risk was underestimated in infants.

  10. Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2011-03-01

    A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (0<α<1 and w(0)=1,w(1e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

  11. A Comparison of EPI Sampling, Probability Sampling, and Compact Segment Sampling Methods for Micro and Small Enterprises

    PubMed Central

    Chao, Li-Wei; Szrek, Helena; Peltzer, Karl; Ramlagan, Shandir; Fleming, Peter; Leite, Rui; Magerman, Jesswill; Ngwenya, Godfrey B.; Pereira, Nuno Sousa; Behrman, Jere

    2011-01-01

    Finding an efficient method for sampling micro- and small-enterprises (MSEs) for research and statistical reporting purposes is a challenge in developing countries, where registries of MSEs are often nonexistent or outdated. This lack of a sampling frame creates an obstacle in finding a representative sample of MSEs. This study uses computer simulations to draw samples from a census of businesses and non-businesses in the Tshwane Municipality of South Africa, using three different sampling methods: the traditional probability sampling method, the compact segment sampling method, and the World Health Organization’s Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) sampling method. Three mechanisms by which the methods could differ are tested, the proximity selection of respondents, the at-home selection of respondents, and the use of inaccurate probability weights. The results highlight the importance of revisits and accurate probability weights, but the lesser effect of proximity selection on the samples’ statistical properties. PMID:22582004

  12. Radionuclide esophageal transit: an evaluation of therapy in achalasia

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    McKinney, M.K.; Brady, C.E.; Weiland, F.L.

    1983-09-01

    We measured quantitative esophageal transit, expressed as percentage of esophageal retention, before and after pneumatic dilatation in two patients with achalasia. In the sitting position they ingested a 500 ml liquid meal containing 500 muCi technetium Tc 99m sulfur colloid. Radioactivity counts of the entire esophagus were plotted at five-minute intervals for 30 minutes. In five normal control subjects the esophagus essentially cleared in less than one minute. Both patients with achalasia had definite retention 30 minutes before dilatation and had quantitative improvement after dilatation. Radionuclide scintigraphic esophageal transit probably correlates better than other parameters with the physiologic degree ofmore » obstruction in achalasia.« less

  13. BIODEGRADATION PROBABILITY PROGRAM (BIODEG)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Biodegradation Probability Program (BIODEG) calculates the probability that a chemical under aerobic conditions with mixed cultures of microorganisms will biodegrade rapidly or slowly. It uses fragment constants developed using multiple linear and non-linear regressions and d...

  14. Trajectory description of the quantum–classical transition for wave packet interference

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chou, Chia-Chun, E-mail: ccchou@mx.nthu.edu.tw

    2016-08-15

    The quantum–classical transition for wave packet interference is investigated using a hydrodynamic description. A nonlinear quantum–classical transition equation is obtained by introducing a degree of quantumness ranging from zero to one into the classical time-dependent Schrödinger equation. This equation provides a continuous description for the transition process of physical systems from purely quantum to purely classical regimes. In this study, the transition trajectory formalism is developed to provide a hydrodynamic description for the quantum–classical transition. The flow momentum of transition trajectories is defined by the gradient of the action function in the transition wave function and these trajectories follow themore » main features of the evolving probability density. Then, the transition trajectory formalism is employed to analyze the quantum–classical transition of wave packet interference. For the collision-like wave packet interference where the propagation velocity is faster than the spreading speed of the wave packet, the interference process remains collision-like for all the degree of quantumness. However, the interference features demonstrated by transition trajectories gradually disappear when the degree of quantumness approaches zero. For the diffraction-like wave packet interference, the interference process changes continuously from a diffraction-like to collision-like case when the degree of quantumness gradually decreases. This study provides an insightful trajectory interpretation for the quantum–classical transition of wave packet interference.« less

  15. Quantifying avian predation on fish populations: integrating predator-specific deposition probabilities in tag-recovery studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hostetter, Nathan J.; Evans, Allen F.; Cramer, Bradley M.; Collis, Ken; Lyons, Donald E.; Roby, Daniel D.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate assessment of specific mortality factors is vital to prioritize recovery actions for threatened and endangered species. For decades, tag recovery methods have been used to estimate fish mortality due to avian predation. Predation probabilities derived from fish tag recoveries on piscivorous waterbird colonies typically reflect minimum estimates of predation due to an unknown and unaccounted-for fraction of tags that are consumed but not deposited on-colony (i.e., deposition probability). We applied an integrated tag recovery modeling approach in a Bayesian context to estimate predation probabilities that accounted for predator-specific tag detection and deposition probabilities in a multiple-predator system. Studies of PIT tag deposition were conducted across three bird species nesting at seven different colonies in the Columbia River basin, USA. Tag deposition probabilities differed significantly among predator species (Caspian ternsHydroprogne caspia: deposition probability = 0.71, 95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.51–0.89; double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus: 0.51, 95% CRI = 0.34–0.70; California gulls Larus californicus: 0.15, 95% CRI = 0.11–0.21) but showed little variation across trials within a species or across years. Data from a 6-year study (2008–2013) of PIT-tagged juvenile Snake River steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act) indicated that colony-specific predation probabilities ranged from less than 0.01 to 0.17 and varied by predator species, colony location, and year. Integrating the predator-specific deposition probabilities increased the predation probabilities by a factor of approximately 1.4 for Caspian terns, 2.0 for double-crested cormorants, and 6.7 for California gulls compared with traditional minimum predation rate methods, which do not account for deposition probabilities. Results supported previous findings on the high predation impacts from strictly piscivorous

  16. Definition of the Neutrosophic Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smarandache, Florentin

    2014-03-01

    Neutrosophic probability (or likelihood) [1995] is a particular case of the neutrosophic measure. It is an estimation of an event (different from indeterminacy) to occur, together with an estimation that some indeterminacy may occur, and the estimation that the event does not occur. The classical probability deals with fair dice, coins, roulettes, spinners, decks of cards, random works, while neutrosophic probability deals with unfair, imperfect such objects and processes. For example, if we toss a regular die on an irregular surface which has cracks, then it is possible to get the die stuck on one of its edges or vertices in a crack (indeterminate outcome). The sample space is in this case: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, indeterminacy}. So, the probability of getting, for example 1, is less than 1/6. Since there are seven outcomes. The neutrosophic probability is a generalization of the classical probability because, when the chance of determinacy of a stochastic process is zero, these two probabilities coincide. The Neutrosophic Probability that of an event A occurs is NP (A) = (ch (A) , ch (indetA) , ch (A ̲)) = (T , I , F) , where T , I , F are subsets of [0,1], and T is the chance that A occurs, denoted ch(A); I is the indeterminate chance related to A, ch(indetermA) ; and F is the chance that A does not occur, ch (A ̲) . So, NP is a generalization of the Imprecise Probability as well. If T, I, and F are crisp numbers then: - 0 <= T + I + F <=3+ . We used the same notations (T,I,F) as in neutrosophic logic and set.

  17. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Childhood friends who smoke: do they influence adolescents to make smoking transitions?

    PubMed

    Bricker, Jonathan B; Peterson, Arthur V; Andersen, M Robyn; Rajan, K Bharat; Leroux, Brian G; Sarason, Irwin G

    2006-05-01

    This study investigated longitudinally the extent to which childhood friends who smoke influence adolescents' smoking transitions, and compared that influence with that of parents who smoke. In a sample of 4744 children, results showed that the probability, per close friend, that a smoking close friend influenced the adolescent to make the first transition to trying smoking was 38% (95% CI: 28%, 46%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 10% (95% CI: 5%, 15%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 11% (95% CI: 5%, 17%). Compared to parents' smoking, close friends' smoking was 12% (p=0.03) more influential for the first transition, no different for the second transition (p=0.53), and 16% (p=0.01) less influential for the third transition. Results provide new evidence suggesting that childhood close friends who smoke influence not only initiation but also escalation of adolescents' smoking. Results also confirmed the important role of parents' smoking. Targeting both childhood close friends' and parents' smoking would be valuable in prevention research.

  19. Does prevalence matter to physicians in estimating post-test probability of disease? A randomized trial.

    PubMed

    Agoritsas, Thomas; Courvoisier, Delphine S; Combescure, Christophe; Deom, Marie; Perneger, Thomas V

    2011-04-01

    The probability of a disease following a diagnostic test depends on the sensitivity and specificity of the test, but also on the prevalence of the disease in the population of interest (or pre-test probability). How physicians use this information is not well known. To assess whether physicians correctly estimate post-test probability according to various levels of prevalence and explore this skill across respondent groups. Randomized trial. Population-based sample of 1,361 physicians of all clinical specialties. We described a scenario of a highly accurate screening test (sensitivity 99% and specificity 99%) in which we randomly manipulated the prevalence of the disease (1%, 2%, 10%, 25%, 95%, or no information). We asked physicians to estimate the probability of disease following a positive test (categorized as <60%, 60-79%, 80-94%, 95-99.9%, and >99.9%). Each answer was correct for a different version of the scenario, and no answer was possible in the "no information" scenario. We estimated the proportion of physicians proficient in assessing post-test probability as the proportion of correct answers beyond the distribution of answers attributable to guessing. Most respondents in each of the six groups (67%-82%) selected a post-test probability of 95-99.9%, regardless of the prevalence of disease and even when no information on prevalence was provided. This answer was correct only for a prevalence of 25%. We estimated that 9.1% (95% CI 6.0-14.0) of respondents knew how to assess correctly the post-test probability. This proportion did not vary with clinical experience or practice setting. Most physicians do not take into account the prevalence of disease when interpreting a positive test result. This may cause unnecessary testing and diagnostic errors.

  20. Introduction to symposium on unmeasured heterogeneity in school transition models.

    PubMed

    Mare, Robert D

    2011-09-01

    Researchers have used models of school transitions for over 30 years to describe inequality of educational opportunity and have contributed a number of important refinements and extensions. School transition models have the complication that the estimated effects of family background on the probability of continuing in school are affected by differential attrition on unobserved factors at earlier stages of schooling. The articles in this symposium present a variety of useful approaches to unobserved heterogeneity in school transition models. Investigators who use these approaches should attend to several issues: (1) models for school transitions may be used both descriptively (and are not therefore subject to any well-defined "bias") and as tools for causal inference. (2) The concept of bias presupposes an underlying experiment, structural model, or population model that would, in principle, define the corresponding unbiased parameters - yet these underlying models are difficult to specify for school transition models. (3) Unobserved determinants of whether individuals make school transitions may be both exogenous and endogenous with respect to the observed regressors in the model. Without a model of how unobserved heterogeneity arises, attempted "corrections" for unmeasured heterogeneity may yield misleading estimates of the effects of measured determinants of school continuation.

  1. Benguela upwelling response during intervals of global climate transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrivastava, Ankush; Sinha, Devesh; Singh, Ashutosh; Ramesh, Rengaswamy

    2017-04-01

    In the present study sedimentary records from the southeast Atlantic ocean were used for reconstructing the variability of Benguela upwelling system as well as the Interoceanic exchange between Indian and Atlantic Oceans during the critical intervals. Planktic foraminiferal assemblage data revealed diminished upwelling in the Benguela upwelling region during the Pliocene warm interval (3.7-3 Ma) which is in contrast to the model reconstructions by Wang et al., 2015 proposing intensification of upwelling with projected future warming. Gradual intensification of Benguela upwelling was interpreted during the Pliocene - Pleistocene transition (3-2.5 Ma). Enhanced Benguela upwelling during the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation supposed to have played a major role in the drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide after Pliocene warmth interval (3.7-3 Ma). Enhanced Benguela upwelling also occurred during Mid- Pleistocene transition (1-0.7 Ma). Reduced interoceanic exchange has been identified between Indian and Atlantic ocean during Northern Hemisphere glaciation (2.5- 2 Ma) and Mid-Pleistocene transition (1- 0.7 Ma). Equatorward migration of subtropical fronts during these two intervals was probably responsible for the reduced interoceanic exchange. Keywords: Pliocene-Pleistocene transition, Mid- Pleistocene transition, Benguela upwelling, Interoceanic exchange

  2. E 3 and M 2 transition strengths in Bi20983

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, O. J.; NiÅ£ǎ, C. R.; Bruce, A. M.; Mǎrginean, N.; Bucurescu, D.; Deleanu, D.; Filipescu, D.; Florea, N. M.; Gheorghe, I.; GhiÅ£ǎ, D.; Glodariu, T.; Lica, R.; Mǎrginean, R.; Mihai, C.; Negret, A.; Sava, T.; Stroe, L.; Şuvǎilǎ, R.; Toma, S.; Alharbi, T.; Alexander, T.; Aydin, S.; Brown, B. A.; Browne, F.; Carroll, R. J.; Mulholland, K.; Podolyák, Zs.; Regan, P. H.; Smith, J. F.; Smolen, M.; Townsley, C. M.

    2016-01-01

    The 1 i13/2→1 h9/2 (M 2 ) and 3 s1/2→2 f7/2 (E 3 ) reduced proton transition probabilities in Bi20983 have been determined from the direct half-life measurements of the 13/21+ and 1/21+ states using the Romanian array for γ -ray SPectroscopy in HEavy ion REactions (RoSPHERE). The 13/21+ and 1/21+ states were found to have T1/2=0.120 (15 ) ns and T1/2=9.02 (24 ) ns respectively. Angular distribution measurements were used to determine an E 3 /M 2 mixing ratio of δ =-0.184 (13 ) for the 1609 keV γ -ray transition deexciting the 13/21+ state. This value for δ was combined with the measured half-life to give reduced transition probabilities of B (E 3 ,13/21+→9/21-) =12 (2 ) ×103 e2fm6 and B (M 2 ,13/21+→9/21-) =38 (5 ) μN2fm2 . These values are in good agreement with calculations within the finite Fermi system. The extracted value of B (E 3 ,1/21+→7/21-) =6.3 (2 ) ×103 e2fm6 can be explained by a small (˜6 % ) admixture in the wave function of the 1/21+ state.

  3. Elastic Backbone Defines a New Transition in the Percolation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampaio Filho, Cesar I. N.; Andrade, José S.; Herrmann, Hans J.; Moreira, André A.

    2018-04-01

    The elastic backbone is the set of all shortest paths. We found a new phase transition at peb above the classical percolation threshold at which the elastic backbone becomes dense. At this transition in 2D, its fractal dimension is 1.750 ±0.003 , and one obtains a novel set of critical exponents βeb=0.50 ±0.02 , γeb=1.97 ±0.05 , and νeb=2.00 ±0.02 , fulfilling consistent critical scaling laws. Interestingly, however, the hyperscaling relation is violated. Using Binder's cumulant, we determine, with high precision, the critical probabilities peb for the triangular and tilted square lattice for site and bond percolation. This transition describes a sudden rigidification as a function of density when stretching a damaged tissue.

  4. Three-Dimensional Localized-Delocalized Anderson Transition in the Time Domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delande, Dominique; Morales-Molina, Luis; Sacha, Krzysztof

    2017-12-01

    Systems which can spontaneously reveal periodic evolution are dubbed time crystals. This is in analogy with space crystals that display periodic behavior in configuration space. While space crystals are modeled with the help of space periodic potentials, crystalline phenomena in time can be modeled by periodically driven systems. Disorder in the periodic driving can lead to Anderson localization in time: the probability for detecting a system at a fixed point of configuration space becomes exponentially localized around a certain moment in time. We here show that a three-dimensional system exposed to a properly disordered pseudoperiodic driving may display a localized-delocalized Anderson transition in the time domain, in strong analogy with the usual three-dimensional Anderson transition in disordered systems. Such a transition could be experimentally observed with ultracold atomic gases.

  5. Spirometric variability in smokers: transitions in COPD diagnosis in a five-year longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Sood, Akshay; Petersen, Hans; Qualls, Clifford; Meek, Paula M; Vazquez-Guillamet, Rodrigo; Celli, Bartolome R; Tesfaigzi, Yohannes

    2016-11-10

    Spirometrically-defined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is considered progressive but its natural history is inadequately studied. We hypothesized that spirometrically-defined COPD states could undergo beneficial transitions. Participants in the Lovelace Smokers' Cohort (n = 1553), primarily women, were longitudinally studied over 5 years. Spirometric states included normal postbronchodilator spirometry, COPD Stage I, Unclassified state, and COPD Stage II+, as defined by GOLD guidelines. Beneficial transitions included either a decrease in disease severity, including resolution of spirometric abnormality, or maintenance of non-diseased state. 'All smokers' (n = 1553) and subgroups with normal and abnormal spirometry at baseline (n = 956 and 597 respectively) were separately analyzed. Markov-like model of transition probabilities over an average follow-up period of 5 years were calculated. Among 'all smokers', COPD Stage I, Unclassified, and COPD Stage II+ states were associated with probabilities of 16, 39, and 22 % respectively for beneficial transitions, and of 16, 35, and 4 % respectively for resolution. Beneficial transitions were more common for new-onset disease than for pre-existing disease (p < 0.001). Beneficial transitions were less common among older smokers, men, or those with bronchial hyperresponsiveness but more common among Hispanics and smokers with excess weight. This observational study of ever smokers, shows that spirometrically-defined COPD states, may not be uniformly progressive and can improve or resolve over time. The implication of these findings is that the spirometric diagnosis of COPD can be unstable. Furthermore, COPD may have a pre-disease state when interventions might help reverse or change its natural history. NA.

  6. Family Structure, Transitions and Psychiatric Disorders Among Puerto Rican Children

    PubMed Central

    Santesteban-Echarri, Olga; Eisenberg, Ruth E.; Bird, Hector R.; Canino, Glorisa J.; Duarte, Cristiane S.

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines whether family structure and its transitions are associated with internalizing and externalizing psychiatric disorders among Puerto Rican-origin children. It uses longitudinal data (three waves) from the Boricua Youth Study, which includes probability samples of children in the South Bronx (New York) and San Juan (Puerto Rico) (n = 2,142). We also examine factors which may explain how family structure and transitions may be related to child psychiatric disorders. Our results show that for both internalizing and externalizing disorders there were no significant differences between children of cohabiting (biological or step) parents or of single parents compared to children of married biological parents. In Puerto Rico only, transitioning once from a two-parent family to a single-parent family was related to child internalizing disorders. Family transitions were not associated with externalizing disorders at either site. Context may be an important factor shaping the risk that family dissolution is followed by an internalizing disorder among children. PMID:28713212

  7. A Study of Al-Mn Transition Edge Sensor Engineering for Stability

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    George, E. M.; et al.

    2013-11-10

    The stability of Al-Mn transition edge sensor (TES) bolometers is studied as we vary the engineered TES transition, heat capacity, and/or coupling between the heat capacity and TES. We present thermal structure measurements of each of the 39 designs tested. The data is accurately fit by a two-body bolometer model, which allows us to extract the basic TES parameters that affect device stability. We conclude that parameters affecting device stability can be engineered for optimal device operation, and present the model parameters extracted for the different TES designs.

  8. Cluster membership probability: polarimetric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medhi, Biman J.; Tamura, Motohide

    2013-04-01

    Interstellar polarimetric data of the six open clusters Hogg 15, NGC 6611, NGC 5606, NGC 6231, NGC 5749 and NGC 6250 have been used to estimate the membership probability for the stars within them. For proper-motion member stars, the membership probability estimated using the polarimetric data is in good agreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. However, for proper-motion non-member stars, the membership probability estimated by the polarimetric method is in total disagreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. The inconsistencies in the determined memberships may be because of the fundamental differences between the two methods of determination: one is based on stellar proper motion in space and the other is based on selective extinction of the stellar output by the asymmetric aligned dust grains present in the interstellar medium. The results and analysis suggest that the scatter of the Stokes vectors q (per cent) and u (per cent) for the proper-motion member stars depends on the interstellar and intracluster differential reddening in the open cluster. It is found that this method could be used to estimate the cluster membership probability if we have additional polarimetric and photometric information for a star to identify it as a probable member/non-member of a particular cluster, such as the maximum wavelength value (λmax), the unit weight error of the fit (σ1), the dispersion in the polarimetric position angles (overline{ɛ }), reddening (E(B - V)) or the differential intracluster reddening (ΔE(B - V)). This method could also be used to estimate the membership probability of known member stars having no membership probability as well as to resolve disagreements about membership among different proper-motion surveys.

  9. Workload Transition: Implications for Individual and Team Performance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-01-01

    a hrlf second) if they are motivated to do so, and they will choose one strategy or the other on the basis of the probability that it will best serve...Arousal, 106 Conclusion, 107 Mediating Effects, 107 Coping with Stress, 108 DesiZ.n Solutions. 108 Strategies , 109 Training, 109 Team Models: Implications...214 Cognitive Switching, 214 Strategy Switching, 215 Task Switching. 216 Implications for Workload Transition, 219 CONTENTS XV

  10. Perceived Treatment Need and Latent Transitions in Heroin and Methamphetamine Polydrug Use among People who Inject Drugs in Tijuana, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Meacham, Meredith C; Roesch, Scott C; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Gaines, Tommi L

    2018-01-01

    People who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana, Mexico, use heroin and/or methamphetamine. While polydrug use is associated with HIV risk behavior, less is known about the stability of polydrug use patterns over time and how polydrug use is related to perceived treatment need. Within a cohort of PWID in Tijuana (N = 735) we sought to (1) characterize subgroups of polydrug and polyroute use from baseline to six months; (2) determine the probabilities of transitioning between subgroups; and (3) examine whether self-reported need for help for drug use modified these transition probabilities. Latent transition analysis (LTA) identified four latent statuses: heroin-only injection (38% at both baseline and follow-up); co-injection of heroin with methamphetamine (3% baseline, 15% follow-up); injection of heroin and methamphetamine (37% baseline, 32% follow-up); and polydrug and polyroute users who injected heroin and both smoked and injected methamphetamine (22% baseline, 14% follow-up). Heroin-only injectors had the highest probability of remaining in the same latent status at follow-up. The majority reported great or urgent need for treatment (51%) and these PWID had greater odds of transitioning to a higher-risk status at follow-up, emphasizing the need for evidence-based drug treatment options for PWID.

  11. No Magic Bullet: A Theory-Based Meta-Analysis of Markov Transition Probabilities in Studies of Service Systems for Persons With Mental Disabilities.

    PubMed

    Leff, Hugh Stephen; Chow, Clifton M; Graves, Stephen C

    2017-03-01

    A random-effects meta-analysis of studies that used Markov transition probabilities (TPs) to describe outcomes for mental health service systems of differing quality for persons with serious mental illness was implemented to improve the scientific understanding of systems performance, to use in planning simulations to project service system costs and outcomes over time, and to test a theory of how outcomes for systems varying in quality differ. Nineteen systems described in 12 studies were coded as basic (B), maintenance (M), and recovery oriented (R) on the basis of descriptions of services provided. TPs for studies were aligned with a common functional-level framework, converted to a one-month time period, synthesized, and compared with theory-based expectations. Meta-regression was employed to explore associations between TPs and characteristics of service recipients and studies. R systems performed better than M and B systems. However, M systems did not perform better than B systems. All systems showed negative as well as positive TPs. For approximately one-third of synthesized TPs, substantial interstudy heterogeneity was noted. Associations were found between TPs and service recipient and study variables Conclusions: Conceptualizing systems as B, M, and R has potential for improving scientific understanding and systems planning. R systems appear more effective than B and M systems, although there is no "magic bullet" system for all service recipients. Interstudy heterogeneity indicates need for common approaches to reporting service recipient states, time periods for TPs, service recipient attributes, and service system characteristics. TPs found should be used in Markov simulations to project system effectiveness and costs of over time.

  12. Barium distributions in teeth reveal early life dietary transitions in primates

    PubMed Central

    Austin, Christine; Smith, Tanya M.; Bradman, Asa; Hinde, Katie; Joannes-Boyau, Renaud; Bishop, David; Hare, Dominic J.; Doble, Philip; Eskenazi, Brenda; Arora, Manish

    2013-01-01

    Early life dietary transitions reflect fundamental aspects of primate evolution and are important determinants of health in contemporary human populations1,2. Weaning is critical to developmental and reproductive rates; early weaning can have detrimental health effects but enables shorter inter-birth intervals, which influences population growth3. Uncovering early life dietary history in fossils is hampered by the absence of prospectively-validated biomarkers that are not modified during fossilisation4. Here we show that major dietary shifts in early life manifest as compositional variations in dental tissues. Teeth from human children and captive macaques, with prospectively-recorded diet histories, demonstrate that barium (Ba) distributions accurately reflect dietary transitions from the introduction of mother’s milk and through the weaning process. We also document transitions in a Middle Palaeolithic juvenile Neanderthal, which shows a pattern of exclusive breastfeeding for seven months, followed by seven months of supplementation. After this point, Ba levels in enamel returned to baseline prenatal levels, suggesting an abrupt cessation of breastfeeding at 1.2 years of age. Integration of Ba spatial distributions and histological mapping of tooth formation enables novel studies of the evolution of human life history, dietary ontogeny in wild primates, and human health investigations through accurate reconstructions of breastfeeding history. PMID:23698370

  13. Barium distributions in teeth reveal early-life dietary transitions in primates.

    PubMed

    Austin, Christine; Smith, Tanya M; Bradman, Asa; Hinde, Katie; Joannes-Boyau, Renaud; Bishop, David; Hare, Dominic J; Doble, Philip; Eskenazi, Brenda; Arora, Manish

    2013-06-13

    Early-life dietary transitions reflect fundamental aspects of primate evolution and are important determinants of health in contemporary human populations. Weaning is critical to developmental and reproductive rates; early weaning can have detrimental health effects but enables shorter inter-birth intervals, which influences population growth. Uncovering early-life dietary history in fossils is hampered by the absence of prospectively validated biomarkers that are not modified during fossilization. Here we show that large dietary shifts in early life manifest as compositional variations in dental tissues. Teeth from human children and captive macaques, with prospectively recorded diet histories, demonstrate that barium (Ba) distributions accurately reflect dietary transitions from the introduction of mother's milk through the weaning process. We also document dietary transitions in a Middle Palaeolithic juvenile Neanderthal, which shows a pattern of exclusive breastfeeding for seven months, followed by seven months of supplementation. After this point, Ba levels in enamel returned to baseline prenatal levels, indicating an abrupt cessation of breastfeeding at 1.2 years of age. Integration of Ba spatial distributions and histological mapping of tooth formation enables novel studies of the evolution of human life history, dietary ontogeny in wild primates, and human health investigations through accurate reconstructions of breastfeeding history.

  14. Accurate modeling and evaluation of microstructures in complex materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tahmasebi, Pejman

    2018-02-01

    Accurate characterization of heterogeneous materials is of great importance for different fields of science and engineering. Such a goal can be achieved through imaging. Acquiring three- or two-dimensional images under different conditions is not, however, always plausible. On the other hand, accurate characterization of complex and multiphase materials requires various digital images (I) under different conditions. An ensemble method is presented that can take one single (or a set of) I(s) and stochastically produce several similar models of the given disordered material. The method is based on a successive calculating of a conditional probability by which the initial stochastic models are produced. Then, a graph formulation is utilized for removing unrealistic structures. A distance transform function for the Is with highly connected microstructure and long-range features is considered which results in a new I that is more informative. Reproduction of the I is also considered through a histogram matching approach in an iterative framework. Such an iterative algorithm avoids reproduction of unrealistic structures. Furthermore, a multiscale approach, based on pyramid representation of the large Is, is presented that can produce materials with millions of pixels in a matter of seconds. Finally, the nonstationary systems—those for which the distribution of data varies spatially—are studied using two different methods. The method is tested on several complex and large examples of microstructures. The produced results are all in excellent agreement with the utilized Is and the similarities are quantified using various correlation functions.

  15. A Catalog of Transit Timing Posterior Distributions for all Kepler Planet Candidate Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montet, Benjamin Tyler; Becker, Juliette C.; Johnson, John

    2015-08-01

    Kepler has ushered in a new era of planetary dynamics, enabling the detection of interactions between multiple planets in transiting systems for hundreds of systems. These interactions, observed as transit timing variations (TTVs), have been used to find non-transiting companions to transiting systems and to measure masses, eccentricities, and inclinations of transiting planets. Often, physical parameters are inferred by comparing the observed light curve to the result of a photodynamical model, a time-intensive process that often ignores the effects of correlated noise in the light curve. Catalogs of transit timing observations have previously neglected non-Gaussian uncertainties in the times of transit, uncertainties in the transit shape, and short cadence data. Here, we present a catalog of not only times of transit centers, but also posterior distributions on the time of transit for every planet candidate transit event in the Kepler data, developed through importance sampling of each transit. This catalog allows us to marginalize over uncertainties in the transit shape and incorporate short cadence data, the effects of correlated noise, and non-Gaussian posteriors. Our catalog will enable dynamical studies that reflect accurately the precision of Kepler and its limitations without requiring the computational power to model the light curve completely with every integration.

  16. Effects of ignoring baseline on modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia.

    PubMed

    Yu, Lei; Tyas, Suzanne L; Snowdon, David A; Kryscio, Richard J

    2009-07-01

    This paper evaluates the effect of ignoring baseline when modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and global impairment (GI) as intervening cognitive states. Transitions among states are modeled by a discrete-time Markov chain having three transient (intact cognition, MCI, and GI) and two competing absorbing states (death and dementia). Transition probabilities depend on two covariates, age and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-epsilon4 allele, through a multinomial logistic model with shared random effects. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a cohort of 678 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun.

  17. Effects of ignoring baseline on modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Lei; Tyas, Suzanne L.; Snowdon, David A.; Kryscio, Richard J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper evaluates the effect of ignoring baseline when modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and global impairment (GI) as intervening cognitive states. Transitions among states are modeled by a discrete-time Markov chain having three transient (intact cognition, MCI, and GI) and two competing absorbing states (death and dementia). Transition probabilities depend on two covariates, age and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-ε4 allele, through a multinomial logistic model with shared random effects. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a cohort of 678 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun. PMID:20161282

  18. Generic finite size scaling for discontinuous nonequilibrium phase transitions into absorbing states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Oliveira, M. M.; da Luz, M. G. E.; Fiore, C. E.

    2015-12-01

    Based on quasistationary distribution ideas, a general finite size scaling theory is proposed for discontinuous nonequilibrium phase transitions into absorbing states. Analogously to the equilibrium case, we show that quantities such as response functions, cumulants, and equal area probability distributions all scale with the volume, thus allowing proper estimates for the thermodynamic limit. To illustrate these results, five very distinct lattice models displaying nonequilibrium transitions—to single and infinitely many absorbing states—are investigated. The innate difficulties in analyzing absorbing phase transitions are circumvented through quasistationary simulation methods. Our findings (allied to numerical studies in the literature) strongly point to a unifying discontinuous phase transition scaling behavior for equilibrium and this important class of nonequilibrium systems.

  19. Multiple transitions in sick leave, disability benefits, and return to work. - A 4-year follow-up of patients participating in a work-related rehabilitation program.

    PubMed

    Oyeflaten, Irene; Lie, Stein Atle; Ihlebæk, Camilla M; Eriksen, Hege R

    2012-09-06

    Return to work (RTW) after long-term sick leave can be a long-lasting process where the individual may shift between work and receiving different social security benefits, as well as between part-time and full-time work. This is a challenge in the assessment of RTW outcomes after rehabilitation interventions. The aim of this study was to analyse the probability for RTW, and the probabilities of transitions between different benefits during a 4-year follow-up, after participating in a work-related rehabilitation program. The sample consisted of 584 patients (66% females), mean age 44 years (sd = 9.3). Mean duration on various types of sick leave benefits at entry to the rehabilitation program was 9.3 months (sd = 3.4)]. The patients had mental (47%), musculoskeletal (46%), or other diagnoses (7%). Official national register data over a 4-year follow-up period was analysed. Extended statistical tools for multistate models were used to calculate transition probabilities between the following eight states; working, partial sick leave, full-time sick leave, medical rehabilitation, vocational rehabilitation, and disability pension; (partial, permanent and time-limited). During the follow-up there was an increased probability for working, a decreased probability for being on sick leave, and an increased probability for being on disability pension. The probability of RTW was not related to the work and benefit status at departure from the rehabilitation clinic. The patients had an average of 3.7 (range 0-18) transitions between work and the different benefits. The process of RTW or of receiving disability pension was complex, and may take several years, with multiple transitions between work and different benefits. Access to reliable register data and the use of a multistate RTW model, makes it possible to describe the developmental nature and the different levels of the recovery and disability process.

  20. N(+)-N and O(+)-O interaction energies, dipole transition moments, and transport cross sections

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Partridge, H.; Stallcop, J. R.

    1986-01-01

    Complete sets of ion-atom interaction energies have been computed for nitrogen and oxygen with accurate large scale structure calculations. The computed energies agree well with the accurate potential curves available from spectroscopic measurement. The state functions from the nitrogen calculations have been applied to determine the transition moment for all allowed dipole transitions. These results can be combined to compute a detailed radiation spectrum such as that required to define the highly nonequilibrium environment of aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicle (AOTV). The long-range interaction energies have been used to determine the ion-atom resonance charge exchange cross sections that are important for transport processes such as diffusion. A calculation to determine reliable transport properties for energies that include the AOTV temperature range from these computed properties is described.