Sample records for accurately assess risk

  1. Foresight begins with FMEA. Delivering accurate risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Passey, R D

    1999-03-01

    If sufficient factors are taken into account and two- or three-stage analysis is employed, failure mode and effect analysis represents an excellent technique for delivering accurate risk assessments for products and processes, and for relating them to legal liability. This article describes a format that facilitates easy interpretation.

  2. Do doctors accurately assess coronary risk in their patients? Preliminary results of the coronary health assessment study.

    PubMed Central

    Grover, S. A.; Lowensteyn, I.; Esrey, K. L.; Steinert, Y.; Joseph, L.; Abrahamowicz, M.

    1995-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the ability of doctors in primary care to assess risk patients' risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN--Questionnaire survey. SETTING--Continuing medical education meetings, Ontario and Quebec, Canada. SUBJECTS--Community based doctors who agreed to enroll in the coronary health assessment study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Ratings of coronary risk factors and estimates by doctors of relative and absolute coronary risk of two hypothetical patients and the "average" 40 year old Canadian man and 70 year old Canadian woman. RESULTS--253 doctors answered the questionnaire. For 30 year olds the doctors rated cigarette smoking as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important; for 70 year old patients they rated diabetes as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important. They rated each individual risk factor as significantly less important for 70 year olds than for 30 year olds (all risk factors, P < 0.001). They showed a strong understanding of the relative importance of specific risk factors, and most were confident in their ability to estimate coronary risk. While doctors accurately estimated the relative risk of a specific patient (compared with the average adult) they systematically overestimated the absolute baseline risk of developing coronary disease and the risk reductions associated with specific interventions. CONCLUSIONS--Despite guidelines on targeting patients at high risk of coronary disease accurate assessment of coronary risk remains difficult for many doctors. Additional strategies must be developed to help doctors to assess better their patients' coronary risk. PMID:7728035

  3. The importance of data collection for timely and accurate risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilsenan, MB

    2017-09-01

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is responsible for food safety risk assessments at EU level. It provides independent scientific advice on risks associated with the food chain to support EU risk management decisions. Since its establishment, EFSA has amassed a wealth of data to underpin its risk assessments, such as food consumption data, monitoring data and experimental data. Increasing transparency of its risk assessments is a core objective of EFSA. EFSA aims to enhance the quality and transparency of its outputs by giving insofar as possible access to data and methods underpinning its scientific outputs. This paper provides an overview of the role of EFSA, its core data collections and their regulatory framework, as well as data quality and standardisation aspects. Finally, the paper elaborates on EFSA’s 2020 strategy in relation to data, and describes EFSA scientific data warehouse and Knowledge Junction in this regard.

  4. Advantages of new cardiovascular risk-assessment strategies in high-risk patients with hypertension.

    PubMed

    Ruilope, Luis M; Segura, Julian

    2005-10-01

    Accurate assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with hypertension is important when planning appropriate treatment of modifiable risk factors. The causes of CVD are multifactorial, and hypertension seldom exists as an isolated risk factor. Classic models of risk assessment are more accurate than a simple counting of risk factors, but they are not generalizable to all populations. In addition, the risk associated with hypertension is graded, continuous, and independent of other risk factors, and this is not reflected in classic models of risk assessment. This article is intended to review both classic and newer models of CVD risk assessment. MEDLINE was searched for articles published between 1990 and 2005 that contained the terms cardiovascular disease, hypertension, or risk assessment. Articles describing major clinical trials, new data about cardiovascular risk, or global risk stratification were selected for review. Some patients at high long-term risk for CVD events (eg, patients aged <50 years with multiple risk factors) may go untreated because they do not meet the absolute risk-intervention threshold of 20% risk over 10 years with the classic model. Recognition of the limitations of classic risk-assessment models led to new guidelines, particularly those of the European Society of Hypertension-European Society of Cardiology. These guidelines view hypertension as one of many risk and disease factors that require treatment to decrease risk. These newer guidelines include a more comprehensive range of risk factors and more finely graded blood pressure ranges to stratify patients by degree of risk. Whether they accurately predict CVD risk in most populations is not known. Evidence from the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) study, which stratified patients by several risk and disease factors, highlights the predictive value of some newer CVD risk assessments. Modern risk assessments, which include blood pressure

  5. Principles in genetic risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Baptista, Pedro Viana

    2005-03-01

    Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed.

  6. Principles in genetic risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Baptista, Pedro Viana

    2005-01-01

    Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed. PMID:18360538

  7. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    PubMed

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2 ; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2 Health effect level ×2 exposure ratio ×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

  8. "I know what you told me, but this is what I think:" perceived risk of Alzheimer disease among individuals who accurately recall their genetics-based risk estimate.

    PubMed

    Linnenbringer, Erin; Roberts, J Scott; Hiraki, Susan; Cupples, L Adrienne; Green, Robert C

    2010-04-01

    This study evaluates the Alzheimer disease risk perceptions of individuals who accurately recall their genetics-based Alzheimer disease risk assessment. Two hundred forty-six unaffected first-degree relatives of patients with Alzheimer disease were enrolled in a multisite randomized controlled trial examining the effects of communicating APOE genotype and lifetime Alzheimer disease risk information. Among the 158 participants who accurately recalled their Alzheimer disease risk assessment 6 weeks after risk disclosure, 75 (47.5%) believed their Alzheimer disease risk was more than 5% points different from the Alzheimer disease risk estimate they were given. Within this subgroup, 69.3% believed that their Alzheimer disease risk was higher than what they were told (discordant high), whereas 30.7% believed that their Alzheimer disease risk was lower (discordant low). Participants with a higher baseline risk perception were more likely to have a discordant-high risk perception (P < 0.05). Participants in the discordant-low group were more likely to be APOE epsilon4 positive (P < 0.05) and to score higher on an Alzheimer disease controllability scale (P < 0.05). Our results indicate that even among individuals who accurately recall their Alzheimer disease risk assessment, many people do not take communicated risk estimates at face value. Further exploration of this clinically relevant response to risk information is warranted.

  9. Brief assessment of food insecurity accurately identifies high-risk US adults.

    PubMed

    Gundersen, Craig; Engelhard, Emily E; Crumbaugh, Amy S; Seligman, Hilary K

    2017-06-01

    To facilitate the introduction of food insecurity screening into clinical settings, we examined the test performance of two-item screening questions for food insecurity against the US Department of Agriculture's Core Food Security Module. We examined sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of various two-item combinations of questions assessing food insecurity in the general population and high-risk population subgroups. 2013 Current Population Survey December Supplement, a population-based US survey. All survey participants from the general population and high-risk subgroups. The test characteristics of multiple two-item combinations of questions assessing food insecurity had adequate sensitivity (>97 %) and specificity (>70 %) for widespread adoption as clinical screening measures. We recommend two specific items for clinical screening programmes based on their widespread current use and high sensitivity for detecting food insecurity. These items query how often the household 'worried whether food would run out before we got money to buy more' and how often 'the food that we bought just didn't last and we didn't have money to get more'. The recommended items have sensitivity across high-risk population subgroups of ≥97 % and a specificity of ≥74 % for food insecurity.

  10. Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

    PubMed

    Heller, Stephen

    2006-03-17

    Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new

  11. Risk assessment in man and mouse.

    PubMed

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Gallistel, Charles R

    2009-02-17

    Human and mouse subjects tried to anticipate at which of 2 locations a reward would appear. On a randomly scheduled fraction of the trials, it appeared with a short latency at one location; on the complementary fraction, it appeared after a longer latency at the other location. Subjects of both species accurately assessed the exogenous uncertainty (the probability of a short versus a long trial) and the endogenous uncertainty (from the scalar variability in their estimates of an elapsed duration) to compute the optimal target latency for a switch from the short- to the long-latency location. The optimal latency was arrived at so rapidly that there was no reliably discernible improvement over trials. Under these nonverbal conditions, humans and mice accurately assess risks and behave nearly optimally. That this capacity is well-developed in the mouse opens up the possibility of a genetic approach to the neurobiological mechanisms underlying risk assessment.

  12. Risk assessment in man and mouse

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Gallistel, Charles R.

    2009-01-01

    Human and mouse subjects tried to anticipate at which of 2 locations a reward would appear. On a randomly scheduled fraction of the trials, it appeared with a short latency at one location; on the complementary fraction, it appeared after a longer latency at the other location. Subjects of both species accurately assessed the exogenous uncertainty (the probability of a short versus a long trial) and the endogenous uncertainty (from the scalar variability in their estimates of an elapsed duration) to compute the optimal target latency for a switch from the short- to the long-latency location. The optimal latency was arrived at so rapidly that there was no reliably discernible improvement over trials. Under these nonverbal conditions, humans and mice accurately assess risks and behave nearly optimally. That this capacity is well-developed in the mouse opens up the possibility of a genetic approach to the neurobiological mechanisms underlying risk assessment. PMID:19188592

  13. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges.

    PubMed

    MacPhail, Robert C; Grulke, Eric A; Yokel, Robert A

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug, or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of practice. The precision with which risk can be estimated is inevitably constrained, however, by uncertainties arising from the lack of pertinent data. Developing accurate risk assessments for nanoparticles and nanoparticle-containing products may present further challenges because of the unique properties of the particles, uncertainties about their composition and the populations exposed to them, and how these may change throughout the particle's life cycle. This review introduces the evolving practice of risk assessment followed by some of the uncertainties that need to be addressed to improve our understanding of nanoparticle risks. Given the clarion call for life-cycle assessments of nanoparticles, an unprecedented degree of national and international coordination between scientific organizations, regulatory agencies, and stakeholders will be required to achieve this goal. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  15. Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

    PubMed

    Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

    2016-07-27

    Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence.

  16. Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

    2018-03-01

    The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

  17. Improving the Linkages between Air Pollution Epidemiology and Quantitative Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Bell, Michelle L.; Walker, Katy; Hubbell, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    Background: Air pollution epidemiology plays an integral role in both identifying the hazards of air pollution as well as supplying the risk coefficients that are used in quantitative risk assessments. Evidence from both epidemiology and risk assessments has historically supported critical environmental policy decisions. The extent to which risk assessors can properly specify a quantitative risk assessment and characterize key sources of uncertainty depends in part on the availability, and clarity, of data and assumptions in the epidemiological studies. Objectives: We discuss the interests shared by air pollution epidemiology and risk assessment communities in ensuring that the findings of epidemiological studies are appropriately characterized and applied correctly in risk assessments. We highlight the key input parameters for risk assessments and consider how modest changes in the characterization of these data might enable more accurate risk assessments that better represent the findings of epidemiological studies. Discussion: We argue that more complete information regarding the methodological choices and input data used in epidemiological studies would support more accurate risk assessments—to the benefit of both disciplines. In particular, we suggest including additional details regarding air quality, demographic, and health data, as well as certain types of data-rich graphics. Conclusions: Relatively modest changes to the data reported in epidemiological studies will improve the quality of risk assessments and help prevent the misinterpretation and mischaracterization of the results of epidemiological studies. Such changes may also benefit epidemiologists undertaking meta-analyses. We suggest workshops as a way to improve the dialogue between the two communities. PMID:21816702

  18. Incorporating biologically based models into assessments of risk from chemical contaminants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bull, R. J.; Conolly, R. B.; De Marini, D. M.; MacPhail, R. C.; Ohanian, E. V.; Swenberg, J. A.

    1993-01-01

    The general approach to assessment of risk from chemical contaminants in drinking water involves three steps: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and dose-response assessment. Traditionally, the risks to humans associated with different levels of a chemical have been derived from the toxic responses observed in animals. It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that further information is needed if risks to humans are to be assessed accurately. Biologically based models help clarify the dose-response relationship and reduce uncertainty.

  19. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  20. Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

    1991-05-01

    Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

  1. A scheme to scientifically and accurately assess cadmium pollution of river sediments, through consideration of bioavailability when assessing ecological risk.

    PubMed

    Song, Zhixin; Tang, Wenzhong; Shan, Baoqing

    2017-10-01

    Evaluating heavy metal pollution status and ecological risk in river sediments is a complex task, requiring consideration of contaminant pollution levels, as well as effects of biological processes within the river system. There are currently no simple or low-cost approaches to heavy metal assessment in river sediments. Here, we introduce a system of assessment for pollution status of heavy metals in river sediments, using measurements of Cd in the Shaocun River sediments as a case study. This system can be used to identify high-risk zones of the river that should be given more attention. First, we evaluated the pollution status of Cd in the river sediments based on their total Cd content, and calculated a risk assessment, using local geochemical background values at various sites along the river. Using both acetic acid and ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid to extracted the fractions of Cd in sediments, and used DGT to evaluate the bioavailability of Cd. Thus, DGT provided a measure of potentially bioavailable concentrations of Cd concentrations in the sediments. Last, we measured Cd contents in plant tissue collected at the same site to compare with our other measures. A Pearson's correlation analysis showed that Cd-Plant correlated significantly with Cd-HAc, (r = 0.788, P < 0.01), Cd-EDTA (r = 0.925, P < 0.01), Cd-DGT (r = 0.976, P < 0.01), and Cd-Total (r = 0.635, P < 0.05). We demonstrate that this system of assessment is a useful means of assessing heavy metal pollution status and ecological risk in river sediments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Improving online risk assessment with equipment prognostics and health monitoring

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Coble, Jamie B.; Liu, Xiaotong; Briere, Chris

    The current approach to evaluating the risk of nuclear power plant (NPP) operation relies on static probabilities of component failure, which are based on industry experience with the existing fleet of nominally similar light water reactors (LWRs). As the nuclear industry looks to advanced reactor designs that feature non-light water coolants (e.g., liquid metal, high temperature gas, molten salt), this operating history is not available. Many advanced reactor designs use advanced components, such as electromagnetic pumps, that have not been used in the US commercial nuclear fleet. Given the lack of rich operating experience, we cannot accurately estimate the evolvingmore » probability of failure for basic components to populate the fault trees and event trees that typically comprise probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models. Online equipment prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies can bridge this gap to estimate the failure probabilities for components under operation. The enhanced risk monitor (ERM) incorporates equipment condition assessment into the existing PRA and risk monitor framework to provide accurate and timely estimates of operational risk.« less

  3. Prognosticators and risk grouping in patients with lung metastasis from nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a more accurate and appropriate assessment of prognosis.

    PubMed

    Cao, Xun; Luo, Rong-Zhen; He, Li-Ru; Li, Yong; Lin, Wen-Qian; Chen, You-Fang; Wen, Zhe-Sheng

    2011-08-26

    Lung metastases arising from nasopharyngeal carcinomas (NPC) have a relatively favourable prognosis. The purpose of this study was to identify the prognostic factors and to establish a risk grouping in patients with lung metastases from NPC. A total of 198 patients who developed lung metastases from NPC after primary therapy were retrospectively recruited from January 1982 to December 2000. Univariate and multivariate analyses of clinical variables were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Actuarial survival rates were plotted against time using the Kaplan-Meier method, and log-rank testing was used to compare the differences between the curves. The median overall survival (OS) period and the lung metastasis survival (LMS) period were 51.5 and 20.9 months, respectively. After univariate and multivariate analyses of the clinical variables, age, T classification, N classification, site of metastases, secondary metastases and disease-free interval (DFI) correlated with OS, whereas age, VCA-IgA titre, number of metastases and secondary metastases were related to LMS. The prognoses of the low- (score 0-1), intermediate- (score 2-3) and high-risk (score 4-8) subsets based on these factors were significantly different. The 3-, 5- and 10-year survival rates of the low-, intermediate- and high-risk subsets, respectively (P < 0.001) were as follows: 77.3%, 60% and 59%; 52.3%, 30% and 27.8%; and 20.5%, 7% and 0%. In this study, clinical variables provided prognostic indicators of survival in NPC patients with lung metastases. Risk subsets would help in a more accurate assessment of a patient's prognosis in the clinical setting and could facilitate the establishment of patient-tailored medical strategies and supports.

  4. Ethnic and cultural determinants influence risk assessment for hepatitis C acquisition.

    PubMed

    Dev, Anouk; Sundararajan, Vijaya; Sievert, William

    2004-07-01

    In the developed world hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is predominantly associated with sharing contaminated equipment between injecting drug users (IDU). In developing countries inadequately sterilized medical equipment, transmission of infected blood and cultural practices have been implicated. Accurate risk factor assessment is essential for education targeted at risk reduction in culturally diverse populations. Ninety Australian-born Caucasians and 72 South-east Asian (SEA) HCV patients attending a Melbourne hospital liver clinic completed a questionnaire which assessed risk factor profile, perceived risk factors, knowledge of risk factors and methods to minimize transmission. Medical records were audited to identify doctor assessment of risk factors. Risk factors in Caucasians were IDU, body piercing and tattooing (89%, 47% and 32%, respectively). Risk factors in SEA patients were injection therapy, dental therapy and surgery (89%, 70% and 38%, respectively). Most Caucasian patients (94%) correctly identified their mode of acquisition compared with 33% of SEA patients (P < 0.0001). Accurate risk factor documentation in medical records was more common in Caucasians (96 vs 32%; P < 0.0001). The majority of patients identified blood-to-blood and sexual/vertical transmission as important modes of acquisition. However, 33% of SEA patients believed transmission occurred through food, water and poor hygiene and 80% did not identify therapeutic injection or traditional medical practices as risk factors. Education provided to SEA patients did not address less well established routes of transmission. Ethnicity influences perception and knowledge of risk factors. Improved assessment of risk factors in high-risk ethnic groups is needed. Education should be culturally appropriate and address the concerns of all populations with HCV. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

  5. Evaluating Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk Assessments Using Anomaly Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Squire, Michael

    2017-01-01

    The accuracy of micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk assessments can be difficult to evaluate. A team from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has completed a study that compared MMOD-related failures on operational satellites to predictions of how many of those failures should occur using NASA's TM"s MMOD risk assessment methodology and tools. The study team used the Poisson probability to quantify the degree of inconsistency between the predicted and reported numbers of failures. Many elements go into a risk assessment, and each of those elements represent a possible source of uncertainty or bias that will influence the end result. There are also challenges in obtaining accurate and useful data on MMOD-related failures.

  6. Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases for public health governance.

    PubMed

    Sedda, L; Morley, D W; Braks, M A H; De Simone, L; Benz, D; Rogers, D J

    2014-12-01

    In the context of public health, risk governance (or risk analysis) is a framework for the assessment and subsequent management and/or control of the danger posed by an identified disease threat. Generic frameworks in which to carry out risk assessment have been developed by various agencies. These include monitoring, data collection, statistical analysis and dissemination. Due to the inherent complexity of disease systems, however, the generic approach must be modified for individual, disease-specific risk assessment frameworks. The analysis was based on the review of the current risk assessments of vector-borne diseases adopted by the main Public Health organisations (OIE, WHO, ECDC, FAO, CDC etc…). Literature, legislation and statistical assessment of the risk analysis frameworks. This review outlines the need for the development of a general public health risk assessment method for vector-borne diseases, in order to guarantee that sufficient information is gathered to apply robust models of risk assessment. Stochastic (especially spatial) methods, often in Bayesian frameworks are now gaining prominence in standard risk assessment procedures because of their ability to assess accurately model uncertainties. Risk assessment needs to be addressed quantitatively wherever possible, and submitted with its quality assessment in order to enable successful public health measures to be adopted. In terms of current practice, often a series of different models and analyses are applied to the same problem, with results and outcomes that are difficult to compare because of the unknown model and data uncertainties. Therefore, the risk assessment areas in need of further research are identified in this article. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A literature review of the cardiovascular risk-assessment tools: applicability among Asian population.

    PubMed

    Liau, Siow Yen; Mohamed Izham, M I; Hassali, M A; Shafie, A A

    2010-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases, the main causes of hospitalisations and death globally, have put an enormous economic burden on the healthcare system. Several risk factors are associated with the occurrence of cardiovascular events. At the heart of efficient prevention of cardiovascular disease is the concept of risk assessment. This paper aims to review the available cardiovascular risk-assessment tools and its applicability in predicting cardiovascular risk among Asian populations. A systematic search was performed using keywords as MeSH and Boolean terms. A total of 25 risk-assessment tools were identified. Of these, only two risk-assessment tools (8%) were derived from an Asian population. These risk-assessment tools differ in various ways, including characteristics of the derivation sample, type of study, time frame of follow-up, end points, statistical analysis and risk factors included. Very few cardiovascular risk-assessment tools were developed in Asian populations. In order to accurately predict the cardiovascular risk of our population, there is a need to develop a risk-assessment tool based on local epidemiological data.

  8. A 21st Century Roadmap for Human Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    For decades human health risk assessment has depended primarily on animal testing to predict adverse effects in humans, but that paradigm has come under question because of calls for more accurate information, less use of animals, and more efficient use of resources. Moreover, t...

  9. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.

    2014-09-01

    Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  10. Selecting and applying indicators of ecosystem collapse for risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Rowland, Jessica A; Nicholson, Emily; Murray, Nicholas J; Keith, David A; Lester, Rebecca E; Bland, Lucie M

    2018-03-12

    Ongoing ecosystem degradation and transformation are key threats to biodiversity. Measuring ecosystem change towards collapse relies on monitoring indicators that quantify key ecological processes. Yet little guidance is available on selecting and implementing indicators for ecosystem risk assessment. Here, we reviewed indicator use in ecological studies of decline towards collapse in marine pelagic and temperate forest ecosystems. We evaluated the use of indicator selection methods, indicator types (geographic distribution, abiotic, biotic), methods of assessing multiple indicators, and temporal quality of time series. We compared these ecological studies to risk assessments in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List of Ecosystems (RLE), where indicators are used to estimate ecosystem collapse risk. We found that ecological studies and RLE assessments rarely reported how indicators were selected, particularly in terrestrial ecosystems. Few ecological studies and RLE assessments quantified ecosystem change with all three indicator types, and indicators types used varied between marine and terrestrial ecosystem. Several studies used indices or multivariate analyses to assess multiple indicators simultaneously, but RLE assessments did not, as RLE guidelines advise against them. Most studies and RLE assessments used time series spanning at least 30 years, increasing the chance of reliably detecting change. Limited use of indicator selection protocols and infrequent use of all three indicator types may hamper the ability to accurately detect changes. To improve the value of risk assessments for informing policy and management, we recommend using: (i) explicit protocols, including conceptual models, to identify and select indicators; (ii) a range of indicators spanning distributional, abiotic and biotic features; (iii) indices and multivariate analyses with extreme care until guidelines are developed; (iv) time series with sufficient data to

  11. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    PubMed

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  12. Can blind persons accurately assess body size from the voice?

    PubMed

    Pisanski, Katarzyna; Oleszkiewicz, Anna; Sorokowska, Agnieszka

    2016-04-01

    Vocal tract resonances provide reliable information about a speaker's body size that human listeners use for biosocial judgements as well as speech recognition. Although humans can accurately assess men's relative body size from the voice alone, how this ability is acquired remains unknown. In this study, we test the prediction that accurate voice-based size estimation is possible without prior audiovisual experience linking low frequencies to large bodies. Ninety-one healthy congenitally or early blind, late blind and sighted adults (aged 20-65) participated in the study. On the basis of vowel sounds alone, participants assessed the relative body sizes of male pairs of varying heights. Accuracy of voice-based body size assessments significantly exceeded chance and did not differ among participants who were sighted, or congenitally blind or who had lost their sight later in life. Accuracy increased significantly with relative differences in physical height between men, suggesting that both blind and sighted participants used reliable vocal cues to size (i.e. vocal tract resonances). Our findings demonstrate that prior visual experience is not necessary for accurate body size estimation. This capacity, integral to both nonverbal communication and speech perception, may be present at birth or may generalize from broader cross-modal correspondences. © 2016 The Author(s).

  13. Can blind persons accurately assess body size from the voice?

    PubMed Central

    Oleszkiewicz, Anna; Sorokowska, Agnieszka

    2016-01-01

    Vocal tract resonances provide reliable information about a speaker's body size that human listeners use for biosocial judgements as well as speech recognition. Although humans can accurately assess men's relative body size from the voice alone, how this ability is acquired remains unknown. In this study, we test the prediction that accurate voice-based size estimation is possible without prior audiovisual experience linking low frequencies to large bodies. Ninety-one healthy congenitally or early blind, late blind and sighted adults (aged 20–65) participated in the study. On the basis of vowel sounds alone, participants assessed the relative body sizes of male pairs of varying heights. Accuracy of voice-based body size assessments significantly exceeded chance and did not differ among participants who were sighted, or congenitally blind or who had lost their sight later in life. Accuracy increased significantly with relative differences in physical height between men, suggesting that both blind and sighted participants used reliable vocal cues to size (i.e. vocal tract resonances). Our findings demonstrate that prior visual experience is not necessary for accurate body size estimation. This capacity, integral to both nonverbal communication and speech perception, may be present at birth or may generalize from broader cross-modal correspondences. PMID:27095264

  14. Suicide risk assessment and intervention in people with mental illness.

    PubMed

    Bolton, James M; Gunnell, David; Turecki, Gustavo

    2015-11-09

    Suicide is the 15th most common cause of death worldwide. Although relatively uncommon in the general population, suicide rates are much higher in people with mental health problems. Clinicians often have to assess and manage suicide risk. Risk assessment is challenging for several reasons, not least because conventional approaches to risk assessment rely on patient self reporting and suicidal patients may wish to conceal their plans. Accurate methods of predicting suicide therefore remain elusive and are actively being studied. Novel approaches to risk assessment have shown promise, including empirically derived tools and implicit association tests. Service provision for suicidal patients is often substandard, particularly at times of highest need, such as after discharge from hospital or the emergency department. Although several drug based and psychotherapy based treatments exist, the best approaches to reducing the risk of suicide are still unclear. Some of the most compelling evidence supports long established treatments such as lithium and cognitive behavioral therapy. Emerging options include ketamine and internet based psychotherapies. This review summarizes the current science in suicide risk assessment and provides an overview of the interventions shown to reduce the risk of suicide, with a focus on the clinical management of people with mental disorders. © BMJ Publishing Group Ltd 2015.

  15. A microbial identification framework for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bernatchez, Stéphane; Anoop, Valar; Saikali, Zeina; Breton, Marie

    2018-06-01

    Micro-organisms are increasingly used in a variety of products for commercial uses, including cleaning products. Such microbial-based cleaning products (MBCP) are represented as a more environmentally-friendly alternative to chemically based cleaning products. The identity of the micro-organisms formulated into these products is often considered confidential business information and is not revealed or it is only partly revealed (i.e., identification to the genus, not to the species). That paucity of information complicates the evaluation of the risk associated with their use. The accurate taxonomic identification of those micro-organisms is important so that a suitable risk assessment of the products can be conducted. To alleviate difficulties associated with adequate identification of micro-organisms in MBCP and other products containing micro-organisms, a microbial identification framework for risk assessment (MIFRA) has been elaborated. It serves to provide guidance on a polyphasic tiered approach, combining the data obtained from the use of various methods (i.e., polyphasic approach) combined with the sequential selection of the methods (i.e., tiered) to achieve a satisfactory identity of the micro-organism to an acceptable taxonomic level. The MIFRA is suitable in various risk assessment contexts for micro-organisms used in any commercial product. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. The short- to medium-term predictive accuracy of static and dynamic risk assessment measures in a secure forensic hospital.

    PubMed

    Chu, Chi Meng; Thomas, Stuart D M; Ogloff, James R P; Daffern, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Although violence risk assessment knowledge and practice has advanced over the past few decades, it remains practically difficult to decide which measures clinicians should use to assess and make decisions about the violence potential of individuals on an ongoing basis, particularly in the short to medium term. Within this context, this study sought to compare the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessment measures for violence with static risk assessment measures over the short term (up to 1 month) and medium term (up to 6 months) in a forensic psychiatric inpatient setting. Results showed that dynamic measures were generally more accurate than static measures for short- to medium-term predictions of inpatient aggression. These findings highlight the necessity of using risk assessment measures that are sensitive to important clinical risk state variables to improve the short- to medium-term prediction of aggression within the forensic inpatient setting. Such knowledge can assist with the development of more accurate and efficient risk assessment procedures, including the selection of appropriate risk assessment instruments to manage and prevent the violence of offenders with mental illnesses during inpatient treatment.

  17. Assessment of Hip Fracture Risk Using Cross-Section Strain Energy Determined by QCT-Based Finite Element Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Kheirollahi, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Accurate assessment of hip fracture risk is very important to prevent hip fracture and to monitor the effect of a treatment. A subject-specific QCT-based finite element model was constructed to assess hip fracture risk at the critical locations of femur during the single-leg stance and the sideways fall. The aim of this study was to improve the prediction of hip fracture risk by introducing a novel failure criterion to more accurately describe bone failure mechanism. Hip fracture risk index was defined using cross-section strain energy, which is able to integrate information of stresses, strains, and material properties affecting bone failure. It was found that the femoral neck and the intertrochanteric region have higher fracture risk than other parts of the femur, probably owing to the larger content of cancellous bone in these regions. The study results also suggested that women are more prone to hip fracture than men. The findings in this study have a good agreement with those clinical observations reported in the literature. The proposed hip fracture risk index based on strain energy has the potential of more accurate assessment of hip fracture risk. However, experimental validation should be conducted before its clinical applications. PMID:26601105

  18. Novel sensing technology in fall risk assessment in older adults: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Sun, Ruopeng; Sosnoff, Jacob J

    2018-01-16

    Falls are a major health problem for older adults with significant physical and psychological consequences. A first step of successful fall prevention is to identify those at risk of falling. Recent advancement in sensing technology offers the possibility of objective, low-cost and easy-to-implement fall risk assessment. The objective of this systematic review is to assess the current state of sensing technology on providing objective fall risk assessment in older adults. A systematic review was conducted in accordance to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis statement (PRISMA). Twenty-two studies out of 855 articles were systematically identified and included in this review. Pertinent methodological features (sensing technique, assessment activities, outcome variables, and fall discrimination/prediction models) were extracted from each article. Four major sensing technologies (inertial sensors, video/depth camera, pressure sensing platform and laser sensing) were reported to provide accurate fall risk diagnostic in older adults. Steady state walking, static/dynamic balance, and functional mobility were used as the assessment activity. A diverse range of diagnostic accuracy across studies (47.9% - 100%) were reported, due to variation in measured kinematic/kinetic parameters and modelling techniques. A wide range of sensor technologies have been utilized in fall risk assessment in older adults. Overall, these devices have the potential to provide an accurate, inexpensive, and easy-to-implement fall risk assessment. However, the variation in measured parameters, assessment tools, sensor sites, movement tasks, and modelling techniques, precludes a firm conclusion on their ability to predict future falls. Future work is needed to determine a clinical meaningful and easy to interpret fall risk diagnosis utilizing sensing technology. Additionally, the gap between functional evaluation and user experience to technology should be addressed.

  19. Accurate assessment and identification of naturally occurring cellular cobalamins.

    PubMed

    Hannibal, Luciana; Axhemi, Armend; Glushchenko, Alla V; Moreira, Edward S; Brasch, Nicola E; Jacobsen, Donald W

    2008-01-01

    Accurate assessment of cobalamin profiles in human serum, cells, and tissues may have clinical diagnostic value. However, non-alkyl forms of cobalamin undergo beta-axial ligand exchange reactions during extraction, which leads to inaccurate profiles having little or no diagnostic value. Experiments were designed to: 1) assess beta-axial ligand exchange chemistry during the extraction and isolation of cobalamins from cultured bovine aortic endothelial cells, human foreskin fibroblasts, and human hepatoma HepG2 cells, and 2) to establish extraction conditions that would provide a more accurate assessment of endogenous forms containing both exchangeable and non-exchangeable beta-axial ligands. The cobalamin profile of cells grown in the presence of [ 57Co]-cyanocobalamin as a source of vitamin B12 shows that the following derivatives are present: [ 57Co]-aquacobalamin, [ 57Co]-glutathionylcobalamin, [ 57Co]-sulfitocobalamin, [ 57Co]-cyanocobalamin, [ 57Co]-adenosylcobalamin, [ 57Co]-methylcobalamin, as well as other yet unidentified corrinoids. When the extraction is performed in the presence of excess cold aquacobalaminacting as a scavenger cobalamin (i.e. "cold trapping"), the recovery of both [ 57Co]-glutathionylcobalamin and [ 57Co]-sulfitocobalamin decreases to low but consistent levels. In contrasts, the [ 57Co]-nitrocobalamin observed in the extracts prepared without excess aquacobalamin is undetected in extracts prepared with cold trapping. This demonstrates that beta-ligand exchange occur with non-covalently bound beta-ligands. The exception to this observation is cyanocobalamin with a non-exchangeable CN- group. It is now possible to obtain accurate profiles of cellular cobalamin.

  20. Accurate assessment and identification of naturally occurring cellular cobalamins

    PubMed Central

    Hannibal, Luciana; Axhemi, Armend; Glushchenko, Alla V.; Moreira, Edward S.; Brasch, Nicola E.; Jacobsen, Donald W.

    2009-01-01

    Background Accurate assessment of cobalamin profiles in human serum, cells, and tissues may have clinical diagnostic value. However, non-alkyl forms of cobalamin undergo β-axial ligand exchange reactions during extraction, which leads to inaccurate profiles having little or no diagnostic value. Methods Experiments were designed to: 1) assess β-axial ligand exchange chemistry during the extraction and isolation of cobalamins from cultured bovine aortic endothelial cells, human foreskin fibroblasts, and human hepatoma HepG2 cells, and 2) to establish extraction conditions that would provide a more accurate assessment of endogenous forms containing both exchangeable and non-exchangeable β-axial ligands. Results The cobalamin profile of cells grown in the presence of [57Co]-cyanocobalamin as a source of vitamin B12 shows that the following derivatives are present: [57Co]-aquacobalamin, [57Co]-glutathionylcobalamin, [57Co]-sulfitocobalamin, [57Co]-cyanocobalamin, [57Co]-adenosylcobalamin, [57Co]-methylcobalamin, as well as other yet unidentified corrinoids. When the extraction is performed in the presence of excess cold aquacobalamin acting as a scavenger cobalamin (i.e., “cold trapping”), the recovery of both [57Co]-glutathionylcobalamin and [57Co]-sulfitocobalamin decreases to low but consistent levels. In contrast, the [57Co]-nitrocobalamin observed in extracts prepared without excess aquacobalamin is undetectable in extracts prepared with cold trapping. Conclusions This demonstrates that β-ligand exchange occurs with non-covalently bound β-ligands. The exception to this observation is cyanocobalamin with a non-covalent but non-exchangeable− CNT group. It is now possible to obtain accurate profiles of cellular cobalamins. PMID:18973458

  1. Collection of family health history for assessment of chronic disease risk in primary care.

    PubMed

    Powell, Karen P; Christianson, Carol A; Hahn, Susan E; Dave, Gaurav; Evans, Leslie R; Blanton, Susan H; Hauser, Elizabeth; Agbaje, Astrid; Orlando, Lori A; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S; Henrich, Vincent C

    2013-01-01

    Family health history can predict a patient's risk for common complex diseases. This project assessed the completeness of family health history data in medical charts and evaluated the utility of these data for performing risk assessments in primary care. Family health history data were collected and analyzed to determine the presence of quality indicators that are necessary for effective and accurate assessment of disease risk. More than 99% of the 390 paper charts analyzed contained information about family health history, which was usually scattered throughout the chart. Information on the health of the patient's parents was collected more often than information on the health of other relatives. Key information that was often not collected included age of disease onset, affected side of the family, and second-degree relatives affected. Less than 4% of patient charts included family health histories that were informative enough to accurately assess risk for common complex diseases. Limitations of this study include the small number of charts reviewed per provider, the fact that the sample consisted of primary care providers in a single geographic location, and the inability to assess ethnicity, consanguinity, and other indicators of the informativeness of family health history. The family health histories collected in primary care are usually not complete enough to assess the patient's risk for common complex diseases. This situation could be improved with use of tools that analyze the family health history information collected and provide risk-stratified decision support recommendations for primary care.

  2. Modifying a Risk Assessment Instrument for Youthful Offenders.

    PubMed

    Shapiro, Cheri J; Malone, Patrick S; Gavazzi, Stephen M

    2018-02-01

    High rates of incarceration in the United States are compounded by high rates of recidivism and prison return. One solution is more accurate identification of individual prisoner risks and needs to promote offender rehabilitation and successful community re-entry; this is particularly important for youthful offenders who developmentally are in late adolescence or early adulthood, and who struggle to reengage in education and/or employment after release. Thus, this study examined the feasibility of administration and initial psychometric properties of a risk and needs assessment instrument originally created for a juvenile justice population (the Global Risk Assessment Device or GRAD) with 895 male youthful offenders in one adult correctional system. Initial feasibility of implementation within the correctional system was demonstrated; confirmatory factor analyses support the invariance of the modified GRAD factor structure across age and race. Future studies are needed to examine the predictive validity and the sensitivity of the instrument.

  3. Risk assessment considerations with regard to the potential impacts of pesticides on endangered species.

    PubMed

    Brain, Richard A; Teed, R Scott; Bang, JiSu; Thorbek, Pernille; Perine, Jeff; Peranginangin, Natalia; Kim, Myoungwoo; Valenti, Ted; Chen, Wenlin; Breton, Roger L; Rodney, Sara I; Moore, Dwayne R J

    2015-01-01

    Simple, deterministic screening-level assessments that are highly conservative by design facilitate a rapid initial screening to determine whether a pesticide active ingredient has the potential to adversely affect threatened or endangered species. If a worst-case estimate of pesticide exposure is below a very conservative effects metric (e.g., the no observed effects concentration of the most sensitive tested surrogate species) then the potential risks are considered de minimis and unlikely to jeopardize the existence of a threatened or endangered species. Thus by design, such compounded layers of conservatism are intended to minimize potential Type II errors (failure to reject a false null hypothesis of de minimus risk), but correspondingly increase Type I errors (falsely reject a null hypothesis of de minimus risk). Because of the conservatism inherent in screening-level risk assessments, higher-tier scientific information and analyses that provide additional environmental realism can be applied in cases where a potential risk has been identified. This information includes community-level effects data, environmental fate and exposure data, monitoring data, geospatial location and proximity data, species biology data, and probabilistic exposure and population models. Given that the definition of "risk" includes likelihood and magnitude of effect, higher-tier risk assessments should use probabilistic techniques that more accurately and realistically characterize risk. Moreover, where possible and appropriate, risk assessments should focus on effects at the population and community levels of organization rather than the more traditional focus on the organism level. This document provides a review of some types of higher-tier data and assessment refinements available to more accurately and realistically evaluate potential risks of pesticide use to threatened and endangered species. © 2014 SETAC.

  4. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  5. A 21st Century Roadmap for Human Health Risk Assessment ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    For decades human health risk assessment has depended primarily on animal testing to predict adverse effects in humans, but that paradigm has come under question because of calls for more accurate information, less use of animals, and more efficient use of resources. Moreover, the disproportionate use of hazard information has overshadowed the important role of exposure science in determinations of human safety. In addition, major risk assessments lack the clarity and transparency that hinder an understanding of the analysis and communication of key safety messages. To help answer these challenges, the HESI-managed RISK21 project was initiated to develop a scientific, transparent, and efficient approach to the evolving world of human health risk assessment. RISK21 involved over 120 participants from 12 countries, 15 government institutions, 20 universities, 2 non-governmental organizations, and 12 corporations. RISK21 developed a tiered approach that is problem formulation-based, makes maximum use of prior knowledge, and is led by exposure science to produce a highly transparent and flexible visualization of and approach to assessing human safety and risk. The general principles underlying the RISK21 approach as well as an overview of the RISK21 Roadmap are presented here. This paper will be followed by a series of publications that will articulate the details that comprise this systematic approach. The purpose of this manuscript is to provide an overview

  6. Fall Risk Assessment in Geriatric-Psychiatric Inpatients to Lower Events (FRAGILE).

    PubMed

    Nanda, Sudip; Dey, Tanujit; Gulstrand, Rudolph E; Cudnik, Daniel; Haller, Harold S

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of this retrospective case-control study were to identify risk factors of falls in geriatric-psychiatric inpatients and develop a screening tool to accurately predict falls. The study sample consisted of 225 geriatric-psychiatric inpatients at a Midwestern referral facility. The sample included 136 inpatients who fell and a random stratified sample of 89 inpatients who did not fall. Data collected included age, gender, activities of daily living, and nursing parameters such as bathing assistance, bed height, use of bed rails, one-on-one observation, fall warning system, Conley Scale fall risk assessment, medical diagnosis, and medications. History of falls, impaired judgment, impaired gait, dizziness, delusions, delirium, chronic use of sedative or antipsychotic agents, and anticholinergic urinary bladder medications significantly increased fall risk. Alzheimer's disease, acute use of sedative or anti-psychotic agents, and depression reduced fall risk. A falls risk tool, Fall Risk Assessment in Geriatric-psychiatric Inpatients to Lower Events (FRAGILE), was developed for assessment and risk stratification with new diagnoses or medications. Copyright 2011, SLACK Incorporated.

  7. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

  8. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    PubMed

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  9. The Stroke Assessment of Fall Risk (SAFR): predictive validity in inpatient stroke rehabilitation.

    PubMed

    Breisinger, Terry P; Skidmore, Elizabeth R; Niyonkuru, Christian; Terhorst, Lauren; Campbell, Grace B

    2014-12-01

    To evaluate relative accuracy of a newly developed Stroke Assessment of Fall Risk (SAFR) for classifying fallers and non-fallers, compared with a health system fall risk screening tool, the Fall Harm Risk Screen. Prospective quality improvement study conducted at an inpatient stroke rehabilitation unit at a large urban university hospital. Patients admitted for inpatient stroke rehabilitation (N = 419) with imaging or clinical evidence of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke, between 1 August 2009 and 31 July 2010. Not applicable. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve for Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves of both scales' classifications, based on fall risk score completed upon admission to inpatient stroke rehabilitation. A total of 68 (16%) participants fell at least once. The SAFR was significantly more accurate than the Fall Harm Risk Screen (p < 0.001), with area under the curve of 0.73, positive predictive value of 0.29, and negative predictive value of 0.94. For the Fall Harm Risk Screen, area under the curve was 0.56, positive predictive value was 0.19, and negative predictive value was 0.86. Sensitivity and specificity of the SAFR (0.78 and 0.63, respectively) was higher than the Fall Harm Risk Screen (0.57 and 0.48, respectively). An evidence-derived, population-specific fall risk assessment may more accurately predict fallers than a general fall risk screen for stroke rehabilitation patients. While the SAFR improves upon the accuracy of a general assessment tool, additional refinement may be warranted. © The Author(s) 2014.

  10. Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

    PubMed Central

    Hussain, S. Monira; Oldenburg, Brian; Zoungas, Sophia; Tonkin, Andrew M.

    2013-01-01

    Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk. PMID:24163770

  11. Fall Risk Assessment Through Automatic Combination of Clinical Fall Risk Factors and Body-Worn Sensor Data.

    PubMed

    Greene, Barry R; Redmond, Stephen J; Caulfield, Brian

    2017-05-01

    Falls are the leading global cause of accidental death and disability in older adults and are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization. Accurate, early identification of patients at risk of falling, could lead to timely intervention and a reduction in the incidence of fall-related injury and associated costs. We report a statistical method for fall risk assessment using standard clinical fall risk factors (N = 748). We also report a means of improving this method by automatically combining it, with a fall risk assessment algorithm based on inertial sensor data and the timed-up-and-go test. Furthermore, we provide validation data on the sensor-based fall risk assessment method using a statistically independent dataset. Results obtained using cross-validation on a sample of 292 community dwelling older adults suggest that a combined clinical and sensor-based approach yields a classification accuracy of 76.0%, compared to either 73.6% for sensor-based assessment alone, or 68.8% for clinical risk factors alone. Increasing the cohort size by adding an additional 130 subjects from a separate recruitment wave (N = 422), and applying the same model building and validation method, resulted in a decrease in classification performance (68.5% for combined classifier, 66.8% for sensor data alone, and 58.5% for clinical data alone). This suggests that heterogeneity between cohorts may be a major challenge when attempting to develop fall risk assessment algorithms which generalize well. Independent validation of the sensor-based fall risk assessment algorithm on an independent cohort of 22 community dwelling older adults yielded a classification accuracy of 72.7%. Results suggest that the present method compares well to previously reported sensor-based fall risk assessment methods in assessing falls risk. Implementation of objective fall risk assessment methods on a large scale has the potential to improve quality of care and lead to a reduction in associated hospital

  12. Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Tool for Local-Scale Flood Risk Assessments in Coastal Cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulp, S. A.; Strauss, B.

    2015-12-01

    Local decision makers in coastal cities require accurate, accessible, and thorough assessments of flood exposure risk within their individual municipality, in their efforts to mitigate against damage due to future sea level rise. To fill this need, we have developed Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, an interactive data toolkit which presents our sea level rise and storm surge analysis for every coastal town, city, county, and state within the USA. Using this tool, policy makers can easily zoom in on their local place of interest to receive a detailed flood risk assessment, which synthesizes a wide range of features including total population, socially vulnerable population, housing, property value, road miles, power plants, schools, hospitals, and many other critical facilities. Risk Finder can also be used to identify specific points of interest in danger of exposure at different flood levels. Additionally, this tool provides localized storm surge probabilities and sea level rise projections at tidal gauges along the coast, so that users can quickly understand the risk of flooding in their area over the coming decades.

  13. Managing the unmanageable: risk assessment and risk management in contemporary professional practice.

    PubMed

    Raven, J; Rix, P

    1999-07-01

    This study sets out to investigate the theories and practices of risk assessment and management in the context of contemporary mental health practice. Although risk assessment and management policies are well established for those working in the field of community mental health care, there are noticeable anomalies and regional variations, in the criteria, procedures and decision-making strategies used. Focus group taped interviews were conducted with over 100 mental health professionals in one NHS Trust. These were compared with an extensive literature review on the topic. The main theme to emerge was lack of resources, which included time and staff in the context of a changing and increasing workload. Another important theme was the lack of access to centralized and accurate information about mental health service provision. It is essential that professionals, clients, their families and the public feel confident in professional judgements and practices to avoid a 'back to the asylum' lobby, for the care and treatment of seriously mentally ill individuals.

  14. Finite element probabilistic risk assessment of transmission line insulation flashovers caused by lightning strokes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bacvarov, D.C.

    1981-01-01

    A new method for probabilistic risk assessment of transmission line insulation flashovers caused by lightning strokes is presented. The utilized approach of applying the finite element method for probabilistic risk assessment is demonstrated to be very powerful. The reasons for this are two. First, the finite element method is inherently suitable for analysis of three dimensional spaces where the parameters, such as three variate probability densities of the lightning currents, are non-uniformly distributed. Second, the finite element method permits non-uniform discretization of the three dimensional probability spaces thus yielding high accuracy in critical regions, such as the area of themore » low probability events, while at the same time maintaining coarse discretization in the non-critical areas to keep the number of grid points and the size of the problem to a manageable low level. The finite element probabilistic risk assessment method presented here is based on a new multidimensional search algorithm. It utilizes an efficient iterative technique for finite element interpolation of the transmission line insulation flashover criteria computed with an electro-magnetic transients program. Compared to other available methods the new finite element probabilistic risk assessment method is significantly more accurate and approximately two orders of magnitude computationally more efficient. The method is especially suited for accurate assessment of rare, very low probability events.« less

  15. Operational risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  16. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  17. An Integrative Review of Pediatric Fall Risk Assessment Tools.

    PubMed

    DiGerolamo, Kimberly; Davis, Katherine Finn

    Patient fall prevention begins with accurate risk assessment. However, sustained improvements in prevention and quality of care include use of validated fall risk assessment tools (FRATs). The goal of FRATs is to identify patients at highest risk. Adult FRATs are often borrowed from to create tools for pediatric patients. Though factors associated with pediatric falls in the hospital setting are similar to those in adults, such as mobility, medication use, and cognitive impairment, adult FRATs and the factors associated with them do not adequately assess risk in children. Articles were limited to English language, ages 0-21years, and publish date 2006-2015. The search yielded 22 articles. Ten were excluded as the population was primarily adult or lacked discussion of a FRAT. Critical appraisal and findings were synthesized using the Johns Hopkins Nursing evidence appraisal system. Twelve articles relevant to fall prevention in the pediatric hospital setting that discussed fall risk assessment and use of a FRAT were reviewed. Comparison between and accuracy of FRATs is challenged when different classifications, definitions, risk stratification, and inclusion criteria are used. Though there are several pediatric FRATs published in the literature, none have been found to be reliable and valid across institutions and diverse populations. This integrative review highlights the importance of choosing a FRAT based on an institution's identified risk factors and validating the tool for one's own patient population as well as using the tool in conjunction with nursing clinical judgment to guide interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  19. Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately?

    PubMed

    Hey, Spencer Phillips; Kimmelman, Jonathan

    2016-10-01

    Accurate estimation of risk and benefit is integral to good clinical research planning, ethical review, and study implementation. Some commentators have argued that various actors in clinical research systems are prone to biased or arbitrary risk/benefit estimation. In this commentary, we suggest the evidence supporting such claims is very limited. Most prior work has imputed risk/benefit beliefs based on past behavior or goals, rather than directly measuring them. We describe an approach - forecast analysis - that would enable direct and effective measure of the quality of risk/benefit estimation. We then consider some objections and limitations to the forecasting approach. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  1. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule risk assessments determine the likelihood of finishing on time. Each task in a schedule has a varying degree of probability of being finished on time. A schedule risk assessment quantifies these probabilities by assigning values to each task. This viewgraph presentation contains a flow chart for conducting a schedule risk assessment, and profiles applicable several methods of data analysis.

  2. Knowledge gaps in host-parasite interaction preclude accurate assessment of meat-borne exposure to Toxoplasma gondii.

    PubMed

    Crotta, M; Limon, G; Blake, D P; Guitian, J

    2017-11-16

    viable cyst resulted 1.14% and 9.97% indicating that the uncertainty and lack of data surrounding key input parameters of the model preclude accurate estimation of T. gondii exposure through consumption of meat products. The hypothetical model conceptualized here is coherent with current knowledge of the biology of the parasite. Simulation outputs clearly identify the key gaps in our knowledge of the host-parasite interaction that, when filled, will support quantitative assessments and much needed accurate estimates of the risk of human exposure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

  4. Systems toxicology: from basic research to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sturla, Shana J; Boobis, Alan R; FitzGerald, Rex E; Hoeng, Julia; Kavlock, Robert J; Schirmer, Kristin; Whelan, Maurice; Wilks, Martin F; Peitsch, Manuel C

    2014-03-17

    Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment.

  5. Risk assessment for physical and cyber attacks on critical infrastructures.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Smith, Bryan J.; Sholander, Peter E.; Phelan, James M.

    2005-08-01

    Assessing the risk of malevolent attacks against large-scale critical infrastructures requires modifications to existing methodologies. Existing risk assessment methodologies consider physical security and cyber security separately. As such, they do not accurately model attacks that involve defeating both physical protection and cyber protection elements (e.g., hackers turning off alarm systems prior to forced entry). This paper presents a risk assessment methodology that accounts for both physical and cyber security. It also preserves the traditional security paradigm of detect, delay and respond, while accounting for the possibility that a facility may be able to recover from or mitigate the results ofmore » a successful attack before serious consequences occur. The methodology provides a means for ranking those assets most at risk from malevolent attacks. Because the methodology is automated the analyst can also play 'what if with mitigation measures to gain a better understanding of how to best expend resources towards securing the facilities. It is simple enough to be applied to large infrastructure facilities without developing highly complicated models. Finally, it is applicable to facilities with extensive security as well as those that are less well-protected.« less

  6. REDUCING UNCERTAINTY IN RISK ASSESSMENT USING MECHANISTIC DATA: ENHANCING THE U.S. EPA DEVELOPMENTAL NEUROTOXICITY TESTING GUIDELINES

    EPA Science Inventory

    SUMMARY: Mechanistic data should provide the Agency with a more accurate basis to estimate risk than do the Agency’s default assumptions (10x uncertainty factors, etc.), thereby improving risk assessment decisions. NTD is providing mechanistic data for toxicant effects on two maj...

  7. The accurate assessment of small-angle X-ray scattering data

    DOE PAGES

    Grant, Thomas D.; Luft, Joseph R.; Carter, Lester G.; ...

    2015-01-23

    Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) has grown in popularity in recent times with the advent of bright synchrotron X-ray sources, powerful computational resources and algorithms enabling the calculation of increasingly complex models. However, the lack of standardized data-quality metrics presents difficulties for the growing user community in accurately assessing the quality of experimental SAXS data. Here, a series of metrics to quantitatively describe SAXS data in an objective manner using statistical evaluations are defined. These metrics are applied to identify the effects of radiation damage, concentration dependence and interparticle interactions on SAXS data from a set of 27 previously described targetsmore » for which high-resolution structures have been determined via X-ray crystallography or nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Studies show that these metrics are sufficient to characterize SAXS data quality on a small sample set with statistical rigor and sensitivity similar to or better than manual analysis. The development of data-quality analysis strategies such as these initial efforts is needed to enable the accurate and unbiased assessment of SAXS data quality.« less

  8. Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects.

    PubMed

    Leu, Sou-Sen; Chang, Ching-Miao

    2013-05-01

    There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  10. Clinical and physiological assessments for elucidating falls risk in Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Latt, Mark D; Lord, Stephen R; Morris, John G L; Fung, Victor S C

    2009-07-15

    The study aims were to devise (1) a fall risk screen for people with PD using routine clinical measures and (2) an explanatory (physiological) fall risk assessment for guiding fall prevention interventions. One hundred thirteen people with PD (age 66 +/- 95% CI 1.6 years) underwent clinical assessments and quantitative tests of sway, gait, strength, reaction time, and lower limb sensation. Participants were then followed up for 12 months to determine fall incidence. In the follow-up year, 51 participants (45%) fell one or more times whereas 62 participants (55%) did not fall. Multivariate analyses of routine clinical measures revealed that a fall in the past year, abnormal axial posture, cognitive impairment, and freezing of gait were independent risk factors for falls and predicted 38/51 fallers (75%) and 45/62 non-fallers (73%). A multivariate model combining clinical and physiological measures that elucidate the pathophysiology of falls identified abnormal posture, freezing of gait, frontal impairment, poor leaning balance, and leg weakness as independent risk factors. This model correctly classified 39/51 fallers (77%) and 51/62 non-fallers (82%). Patients with PD at risk of falls can be identified accurately with routine clinical assessments and quantitative physiological tests. Many of the risk factors identified are amenable to targeted intervention. 2009 Movement Disorder Society.

  11. Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

    2016-12-01

    In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

  12. The Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Bypass (CRAB) facilitates efficient perioperative risk assessment for patients with critical limb ischemia.

    PubMed

    Meltzer, Andrew J; Graham, Ashley; Connolly, Peter H; Meltzer, Ellen C; Karwowski, John K; Bush, Harry L; Schneider, Darren B

    2013-05-01

    ). Comparison with other models by assessment of area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve revealed the CRAB was a more accurate predictor of mortality, all major morbidity, and M&M. The CRAB is a CLI-specific, risk assessment instrument derived from multi-institutional American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical outcomes data that out-performs existing prognostic risk indices in the prediction of clinically significant adverse events after bypass surgery. Use of the CRAB as a risk assessment tool provides an evidence basis for patient-centered clinical decision making and may have a role in identifying patients at higher risk for surgical revascularization in whom an endovascular approach is preferable. Copyright © 2013 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk assessment strategies as nanomaterials transition into commercial applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olson, Mira S.; Gurian, Patrick L.

    2012-03-01

    Commercial applications of nanomaterials are rapidly emerging in the marketplace. The environmental and human health risks of many nanomaterials remain unknown, and prioritizing how to efficiently assess their risks is essential. As nanomaterials are incorporated into a broader range of commercial products, their potential for environmental release and human exposure not only increases, but also becomes more difficult to model accurately. Emphasis may first be placed on estimating potential environmental exposure based on pertinent physical properties of the nanomaterials. Given that the greatest potential for global environmental impacts results from nanomaterials that are both persistent and toxic, this paper advocates screening first for persistence since it is easier to assess than toxicity. For materials that show potential for persistence, a higher burden of proof of their non-toxicity is suggested before they enter the commercial marketplace whereas a lower burden of proof may be acceptable for nanomaterials that are less persistent.

  14. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  15. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  16. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it tomore » be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.« less

  17. Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  18. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  19. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plattner, Th.; Plapp, T.; Hebel, B.

    2006-06-01

    An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons) and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not why it differs. The

  20. Chemical Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  1. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  2. Range-Finding Risk Assessment of Inhalation Exposure to Nanodiamonds in a Laboratory Environment

    PubMed Central

    Koivisto, Antti J.; Palomäki, Jaana E.; Viitanen, Anna-Kaisa; Siivola, Kirsi M.; Koponen, Ismo K.; Yu, Mingzhou; Kanerva, Tomi S.; Norppa, Hannu; Alenius, Harri T.; Hussein, Tareq; Savolainen, Kai M.; Hämeri, Kaarle J.

    2014-01-01

    This study considers fundamental methods in occupational risk assessment of exposure to airborne engineered nanomaterials. We discuss characterization of particle emissions, exposure assessment, hazard assessment with in vitro studies, and risk range characterization using calculated inhaled doses and dose-response translated to humans from in vitro studies. Here, the methods were utilized to assess workers’ risk range of inhalation exposure to nanodiamonds (NDs) during handling and sieving of ND powder. NDs were agglomerated to over 500 nm particles, and mean exposure levels of different work tasks varied from 0.24 to 4.96 µg·m−3 (0.08 to 0.74 cm−3). In vitro-experiments suggested that ND exposure may cause a risk for activation of inflammatory cascade. However, risk range characterization based on in vitro dose-response was not performed because accurate assessment of delivered (settled) dose on the cells was not possible. Comparison of ND exposure with common pollutants revealed that ND exposure was below 5 μg·m−3, which is one of the proposed exposure limits for diesel particulate matter, and the workers’ calculated dose of NDs during the measurement day was 74 ng which corresponded to 0.02% of the modeled daily (24 h) dose of submicrometer urban air particles. PMID:24840353

  3. Automated Risk Assessment for School Violence: a Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Barzman, Drew; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Bachtel, Alycia; Lin, Kenneth; Jackson, Hannah; Sorter, Michael; DelBello, Melissa

    2018-05-01

    risk for school violence. The machine learning algorithm was highly accurate in assessing school violence risk.

  4. Novel Transformations of Trenbolone Acetate Metabolites Suggest Incomplete Environmental Risk Assessment for Trenbolone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolodziej, E. P.; Jones, G.; Cwiertny, D. M.; Qu, S.

    2013-12-01

    In general, the existing regulatory and risk assessment paradigm for veterinary pharmaceuticals and other potential environmental contaminants is relatively simplistic as it equates contaminant degradation with significant reduction in associated ecological risk. However, it is becoming clear that there exist a number of environmental contaminants whose behaviors in the environment confound this assessment paradigm and whose environmental risk cannot be accurately assessed by laboratory studies demonstrating degradation or attenuation of compound concentrations in model environmental systems. For example, trenbolone acetate (TBA) is an androgenic growth promoting steroid used widely in animal agriculture in the United States, with the vast majority of U.S. beef cattle receiving TBA implants. Despite their significant economic value ( $1 billion annually), TBA metabolites can be potent endocrine disrupting compounds for sensitive species of aquatic organisms, capable of endocrine disruption at low ng/L concentrations. TBA metabolites are often considered rather reactive and prone to degradation, and risk assessment studies specifically point to their rapid degradation as evidence for limited ecological risks. However, we have recently demonstrated a most unexpected observation for TBA metabolite fate in environmental systems: namely that product-to-parent reversion is possible for certain TBA metabolites. Also, a variety of structural analogs and stereoisomers can arise from environmental transformation processes of TBA metabolites, potentially yielding a range of uncharacterized steroid structures capable of receptor interactions. None of these possibilities are accounted for in current risk assessment approaches for trenbolone or any other veterinary pharmaceutical. These observations confound most all current environmental risk assessment and contaminant fate models, and therefore improving our approach to environmental risk assessment needs to specifically

  5. [Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: preliminary results].

    PubMed

    Palmieri, Luigi; Rielli, Rita; Demattè, Luca; Donfrancesco, Chiara; La Terza, Giampaolo; De Sanctis Caiola, Patrizia; Dima, Francesco; Lo Noce, Cinzia; Giannelli, Anna Maria; Brignoli, Ovidio; Cuffari, Alfredo; De Rosa, Marisa; Addis, Antonio; Laurendi, Giovanna; Giampaoli, Simona

    2010-02-01

    The Italian National Prevention plan includes 10-year cardiovascular risk (CR) assessment of the Italian general population aged 35-69 years using the CUORE Project risk score. A national training program for general practitioners (GPs) was launched by the Ministry of Health in 2003. GPs were encouraged to collect data on risk factors and risk assessment and to contribute to the CUORE Project Cardiovascular Risk Observatory (CRO). The aim of this analysis is to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of risk assessment in primary care. The cuore.exe software, free of charge for GPs and easily downloadable from the CUORE Project web site (www.cuore.iss.it), is the frame for the GP data collection. The CRO provides a platform to analyze data collected on risk assessment and risk factors, and compare results at regional and national level in order to support health policy makers in their decision process. From January 2007 to April 2009, 2858 GPs have downloaded the cuore.exe software; 102,113 risk assessments were sent to the CRO based on risk factors profile of 87,556 persons (3617 persons had more than 1 risk assessment). Mean level of CR was 3.1% in women and 8.4% in men; 30% of men and 65% of women were at low risk (CR < 3%), 9% of men and 0.4% of women were found at high risk (CR > or = 20%). Among those with at least 2 risk assessments, 8% shifted to a lower class of risk after 1 year. Mean level of systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased by about 1% in 1 year; total cholesterol more than 2%, and prevalence of smokers decreased by about 3% in the second risk assessment. These data demonstrate that risk assessment can be included as a first step of prevention in primary care. The CUORE Project individual score is expected to become an important tool for GPs to assess their patients' CR, to promote primary prevention, and to focus attention to healthy lifestyle adoption.

  6. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

  7. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

  8. Practice considerations in providing cancer risk assessment and genetic testing in women's health.

    PubMed

    Mahon, Suzanne M; Crecelius, Mary E

    2013-01-01

    Providers of women's health services are often confronted with questions about cancer genetic testing. The provision of these services is complex. The process begins with accurate risk assessment and identification of individuals who might benefit from genetic testing services. There are practice, administrative, legal, and ethical considerations that should be considered when developing policies for the referral of at-risk individuals or before deciding to provide genetic services. © 2013 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses.

  9. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  10. Risk assessment, prognosis and guideline implementation in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

    PubMed

    Boucly, Athénaïs; Weatherald, Jason; Savale, Laurent; Jaïs, Xavier; Cottin, Vincent; Prevot, Grégoire; Picard, François; de Groote, Pascal; Jevnikar, Mitja; Bergot, Emmanuel; Chaouat, Ari; Chabanne, Céline; Bourdin, Arnaud; Parent, Florence; Montani, David; Simonneau, Gérald; Humbert, Marc; Sitbon, Olivier

    2017-08-01

    Current European guidelines recommend periodic risk assessment for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The aim of our study was to determine the association between the number of low-risk criteria achieved within 1 year of diagnosis and long-term prognosis.Incident patients with idiopathic, heritable and drug-induced PAH between 2006 and 2016 were analysed. The number of low-risk criteria present at diagnosis and at first re-evaluation were assessed: World Health Organization (WHO)/New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class I or II, 6-min walking distance (6MWD) >440 m, right atrial pressure <8 mmHg and cardiac index ≥2.5 L·min -1 ·m -2 1017 patients were included (mean age 57 years, 59% female, 75% idiopathic PAH). After a median follow-up of 34 months, 238 (23%) patients had died. Each of the four low-risk criteria independently predicted transplant-free survival at first re-evaluation. The number of low-risk criteria present at diagnosis (p<0.001) and at first re-evaluation (p<0.001) discriminated the risk of death or lung transplantation. In addition, in a subgroup of 603 patients with brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements, the number of three noninvasive criteria (WHO/NYHA functional class, 6MWD and BNP/NT-proBNP) present at first re-evaluation discriminated prognostic groups (p<0.001).A simplified risk assessment tool that quantifies the number of low-risk criteria present accurately predicted transplant-free survival in PAH. Copyright ©ERS 2017.

  11. Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

  12. Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

    PubMed

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2015-12-01

    Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

  13. Site-specific probabilistic ecological risk assessment of a volatile chlorinated hydrocarbon-contaminated tidal estuary.

    PubMed

    Hunt, James; Birch, Gavin; Warne, Michael St J

    2010-05-01

    Groundwater contaminated with volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons (VCHs) was identified as discharging to Penrhyn Estuary, an intertidal embayment of Botany Bay, New South Wales, Australia. A screening-level hazard assessment of surface water in Penrhyn Estuary identified an unacceptable hazard to marine organisms posed by VCHs. Given the limitations of hazard assessments, the present study conducted a higher-tier, quantitative probabilistic risk assessment using the joint probability curve (JPC) method that accounted for variability in exposure and toxicity profiles to quantify risk (delta). Risk was assessed for 24 scenarios, including four areas of the estuary based on three exposure scenarios (low tide, high tide, and both low and high tides) and two toxicity scenarios (chronic no-observed-effect concentrations [NOEC] and 50% effect concentrations [EC50]). Risk (delta) was greater at low tide than at high tide and varied throughout the tidal cycle. Spatial distributions of risk in the estuary were similar using both NOEC and EC50 data. The exposure scenario including data combined from both tides was considered the most accurate representation of the ecological risk in the estuary. When assessing risk using data across both tides, the greatest risk was identified in the Springvale tributary (delta=25%)-closest to the source area-followed by the inner estuary (delta=4%) and the Floodvale tributary (delta=2%), with the lowest risk in the outer estuary (delta=0.1%), farthest from the source area. Going from the screening level ecological risk assessment (ERA) to the probabilistic ERA changed the risk from unacceptable to acceptable in 50% of exposure scenarios in two of the four areas within the estuary. The probabilistic ERA provided a more realistic assessment of risk than the screening-level hazard assessment. Copyright (c) 2010 SETAC.

  14. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  15. Improving the relevance and efficiency of human exposure assessments within the process of regulatory risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Money, Chris

    2018-01-24

    The process for undertaking exposure assessments varies dependent on its purpose. But for exposure assessments to be relevant and accurate, they are reliant on access to reliable information on key exposure determinants. Acquiring such information is seldom straightforward and can take significant time and resources. This articles examines how the application of tiered and targeted approaches to information acquisition, within the context of European human health risk assessments, can not only lead to improvements in the efficiency and effectiveness of the process but also in the confidence of stakeholders in its outputs. The article explores how the benefits might be further improved through the coordination of such activities, as well as those areas that represent barriers to wider international harmonisation.

  16. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  17. Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2007-08-01

    The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

  18. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  19. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  20. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  1. Using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) to Study Sex Events Among Very High-Risk Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM).

    PubMed

    Wray, Tyler B; Kahler, Christopher W; Monti, Peter M

    2016-10-01

    MSM continue to represent the largest share of new HIV infections in the United States each year due to high infectivity associated with unprotected anal sex. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) has the potential to provide a unique view of how high-risk sexual events occur in the real world and can impart detailed information about aspects of decision-making, antecedents, and consequences that accompany these events. EMA may also produce more accurate data on sexual behavior by assessing it soon after its occurrence. We conducted a study involving 12 high-risk MSM to explore the acceptability and feasibility of a 30 day, intensive EMA procedure. Results suggest this intensive assessment strategy was both acceptable and feasible to participants. All participants provided response rates to various assessments that approached or were in excess of their targets: 81.0 % of experience sampling assessments and 93.1 % of daily diary assessments were completed. However, comparing EMA reports with a Timeline Followback (TLFB) of the same 30 day period suggested that participants reported fewer sexual risk events on the TLFB compared to EMA, and reported a number of discrepancies about specific behaviors and partner characteristics across the two methods. Overall, results support the acceptability, feasibility, and utility of using EMA to understand sexual risk events among high-risk MSM. Findings also suggest that EMA and other intensive longitudinal assessment approaches could yield more accurate data about sex events.

  2. Calculating LOAEL/NOAEL uncertainty factors for wildlife species in ecological risk assessments

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Suedel, B.C.; Clifford, P.A.; Ludwig, D.F.

    1995-12-31

    Terrestrial ecological risk assessments frequently require derivation of NOAELs or toxicity reference values (TRVS) against which to compare exposure estimates. However, much of the available information from the literature is LOAELS, not NOAELS. Lacking specific guidance, arbitrary factors of ten are sometimes employed for extrapolating NOAELs from LOAELs. In this study, the scientific literature was searched to obtain chronic and subchronic studies reporting NOAEL and LOAEL data for wildlife and laboratory species. Results to date indicate a mean conversion factor of 4.0 ({+-} 2.61 S.D.), with a minimum of 1. 6 and a maximum of 10 for 106 studies acrossmore » several classes of compounds (I.e., metals, pesticides, volatiles, etc.). These data suggest that an arbitrary factor of 10 conversion factor is unnecessarily restrictive for extrapolating NOAELs from LOAELs and that a factor of 4--5 would be more realistic for deriving toxicity reference values for wildlife species. Applying less arbitrary and more realistic conversion factors in ecological risk assessments will allow for a more accurate estimate of NOAEL values for assessing risk to wildlife populations.« less

  3. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  4. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  5. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  6. Ecological impact assessments fail to reduce risk of bat casualties at wind farms.

    PubMed

    Lintott, Paul R; Richardson, Suzanne M; Hosken, David J; Fensome, Sophie A; Mathews, Fiona

    2016-11-07

    Demand for renewable energy is rising exponentially. While this has benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, there may be costs to biodiversity [1]. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are the main tool used across the world to predict the overall positive and negative effects of renewable energy developments before planning consent is given, and the Ecological Impact Assessments (EcIAs) within them assess their species-specific effects. Given that EIAs are undertaken globally, are extremely expensive, and are enshrined in legislation, their place in evidence-based decision making deserves evaluation. Here we assess how well EIAs of wind-farm developments protect bats. We found they do not predict the risks to bats accurately, and even in those cases where high risk was correctly identified, the mitigation deployed did not avert the risk. Given that the primary purpose of an EIA is to make planning decisions evidence-based, our results indicate that EIA mitigation strategies used to date have been ineffective in protecting bats. In the future, greater emphasis should be placed on assessing the actual impacts post-construction and on developing effective mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Proteomics analysis of human breast milk to assess breast cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Aslebagh, Roshanak; Channaveerappa, Devika; Arcaro, Kathleen F; Darie, Costel C

    2018-02-01

    Detection of breast cancer (BC) in young women is challenging because mammography, the most common tool for detecting BC, is not effective on the dense breast tissue characteristic of young women. In addition to the limited means for detecting their BC, young women face a transient increased risk of pregnancy-associated BC. As a consequence, reproductively active women could benefit significantly from a tool that provides them with accurate risk assessment and early detection of BC. One potential method for detection of BC is biochemical monitoring of proteins and other molecules in bodily fluids such as serum, nipple aspirate, ductal lavage, tear, urine, saliva and breast milk. Of all these fluids, only breast milk provides access to a large volume of breast tissue, in the form of exfoliated epithelial cells, and to the local breast environment, in the form of molecules in the milk. Thus, analysis of breast milk is a non-invasive method with significant potential for assessing BC risk. Here we analyzed human breast milk by mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics to build a biomarker signature for early detection of BC. Ten milk samples from eight women provided five paired-groups (cancer versus control) for analysis of dysregulatedproteins: two within woman comparisons (milk from a diseased breast versus a healthy breast of the same woman) and three across women comparisons (milk from a woman with cancer versus a woman without cancer). Despite a wide range in the time between milk donation and cancer diagnosis (cancer diagnosis occurred from 1 month before to 24 months after milk donation), the levels of some proteins differed significantly between cancer and control in several of the five comparison groups. These pilot data are supportive of the idea that molecular analysis of breast milk will identify proteins informative for early detection and accurate assessment of BC risk, and warrant further research. Data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier

  8. Risk assessment and prioritization

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2003-01-01

    The first step to take in order to prevent and minimize the dangers of disasters or attacks, is risk assessment, followed closely by prioritization. This article discusses key vulnerability and risk assessment that Volpe Center has conducted in suppo...

  9. FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

  10. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants.

    PubMed Central

    Möller, L; Schuetzle, D; Autrup, H

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out this research. PMID:7529703

  11. In vivo and in vitro methods for evaluating soil arsenic bioavailability: relevant to human health risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Arsenic (As) is the most frequently occurring contaminant on the priority list of hazardous substances, which lists substances of greatest public health concern to people living at or near U.S. National Priorities List site. Accurate assessment of human health risks from exposure...

  12. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    PubMed

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  13. Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials--The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

    PubMed

    Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2016-01-15

    Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is often considered as the most transparent, objective and reliable decision-making tool for informing the risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials. ERAs are based on the assumption that it is possible to provide accurate estimates of hazard and exposure and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a "holy grail" for informing risk management. We build this thesis on the analysis of two case studies (of nonylphenol and nanomaterials) as well as a historical analysis in which we address the scientific foundation for ERAs. The analyses show that ERAs do not properly address all aspects of actual risk, such as the mixture effect and the environmentally realistic risk from nanomaterials. Uncertainties have been recognised for decades, and assessment factors are used to compensate for the lack of realism in ERAs. The assessment factors' values were pragmatically determined, thus lowering the scientific accuracy of the ERAs. Furthermore, the default choice of standard assay for assessing a hazard might not always be the most biologically relevant, so we therefore argue that an ERA should be viewed as a pragmatic decision-making tool among several, and it should not have a special status for informing risk management. In relation to other relevant decision-making tools we discuss the use of chemical alternative assessments (CAAs) and the precautionary principle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  15. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  16. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  17. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  18. Miniature Biosensor with Health Risk Assessment Feedback

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hanson, Andrea; Downs, Meghan; Kalogera, Kent; Buxton, Roxanne; Cooper, Tommy; Cooper, Alan; Cooper, Ross

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) monitoring is a medical requirement during exercise on the International Space Station (ISS), fitness tests, and extravehicular activity (EVA); however, NASA does not currently have the technology to consistently and accurately monitor HR and other physiological data during these activities. Performance of currently available HR monitor technologies is dependent on uninterrupted contact with the torso and are prone to data drop-out and motion artifact. Here, we seek an alternative to the chest strap and electrode based sensors currently in use on ISS today. This project aims to develop a high performance, robust earbud based biosensor with focused efforts on improved HR data quality during exercise or EVA. A health risk assessment algorithm will further advance the goals of autonomous crew health care for exploration missions.

  19. Assessing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Models (BOSC CSS meeting)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In vitro assays are increasingly being used in risk assessments Uncertainty in assays leads to uncertainty in models used for risk assessments. This poster assesses uncertainty in the ER and AR models.

  20. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  1. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  2. Breast Density and Benign Breast Disease: Risk Assessment to Identify Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer.

    PubMed

    Tice, Jeffrey A; Miglioretti, Diana L; Li, Chin-Shang; Vachon, Celine M; Gard, Charlotte C; Kerlikowske, Karla

    2015-10-01

    Women with proliferative breast lesions are candidates for primary prevention, but few risk models incorporate benign findings to assess breast cancer risk. We incorporated benign breast disease (BBD) diagnoses into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model, the only breast cancer risk assessment tool that uses breast density. We developed and validated a competing-risk model using 2000 to 2010 SEER data for breast cancer incidence and 2010 vital statistics to adjust for the competing risk of death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative hazards for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, BBD diagnoses, and breast density in the BCSC. We included 1,135,977 women age 35 to 74 years undergoing mammography with no history of breast cancer; 17% of the women had a prior breast biopsy. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 17,908 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC BBD model slightly overpredicted risk (expected-to-observed ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06) and had modest discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.665). Among women with proliferative findings, adding BBD to the model increased the proportion of women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher from 9.3% to 27.8% (P<.001). The BCSC BBD model accurately estimates women's risk for breast cancer using breast density and BBD diagnoses. Greater numbers of high-risk women eligible for primary prevention after BBD diagnosis are identified using the BCSC BBD model. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  3. Breast Density and Benign Breast Disease: Risk Assessment to Identify Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Tice, Jeffrey A.; Miglioretti, Diana L.; Li, Chin-Shang; Vachon, Celine M.; Gard, Charlotte C.; Kerlikowske, Karla

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Women with proliferative breast lesions are candidates for primary prevention, but few risk models incorporate benign findings to assess breast cancer risk. We incorporated benign breast disease (BBD) diagnoses into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model, the only breast cancer risk assessment tool that uses breast density. Methods We developed and validated a competing-risk model using 2000 to 2010 SEER data for breast cancer incidence and 2010 vital statistics to adjust for the competing risk of death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative hazards for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, BBD diagnoses, and breast density in the BCSC. Results We included 1,135,977 women age 35 to 74 years undergoing mammography with no history of breast cancer; 17% of the women had a prior breast biopsy. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 17,908 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC BBD model slightly overpredicted risk (expected-to-observed ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06) and had modest discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.665). Among women with proliferative findings, adding BBD to the model increased the proportion of women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher from 9.3% to 27.8% (P < .001). Conclusion The BCSC BBD model accurately estimates women's risk for breast cancer using breast density and BBD diagnoses. Greater numbers of high-risk women eligible for primary prevention after BBD diagnosis are identified using the BCSC BBD model. PMID:26282663

  4. Assessing the global risk of establishment of Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) using CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche models

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Accurate assessment of insect pest establishment risk is needed by national plant protection organizations to negotiate international trade of horticultural commodities that can potentially carry the pests and result in inadvertent introductions in the importing countries. We used mechanistic and co...

  5. Advances in risk assessment and communication.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, Bernard D

    2005-01-01

    Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.

  6. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  7. Physics-Based Fragment Acceleration Modeling for Pressurized Tank Burst Risk Assessments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Ted A.; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2014-01-01

    As part of comprehensive efforts to develop physics-based risk assessment techniques for space systems at NASA, coupled computational fluid and rigid body dynamic simulations were carried out to investigate the flow mechanisms that accelerate tank fragments in bursting pressurized vessels. Simulations of several configurations were compared to analyses based on the industry-standard Baker explosion model, and were used to formulate an improved version of the model. The standard model, which neglects an external fluid, was found to agree best with simulation results only in configurations where the internal-to-external pressure ratio is very high and fragment curvature is small. The improved model introduces terms that accommodate an external fluid and better account for variations based on circumferential fragment count. Physics-based analysis was critical in increasing the model's range of applicability. The improved tank burst model can be used to produce more accurate risk assessments of space vehicle failure modes that involve high-speed debris, such as exploding propellant tanks and bursting rocket engines.

  8. Care zoning in a psychiatric intensive care unit: strengthening ongoing clinical risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Mullen, Antony; Drinkwater, Vincent; Lewin, Terry J

    2014-03-01

    To implement and evaluate the care zoning model in an eight-bed psychiatric intensive care unit and, specifically, to examine the model's ability to improve the documentation and communication of clinical risk assessment and management. Care zoning guides nurses in assessing clinical risk and planning care within a mental health context. Concerns about the varying quality of clinical risk assessment prompted a trial of the care zoning model in a psychiatric intensive care unit within a regional mental health facility. The care zoning model assigns patients to one of 3 'zones' according to their clinical risk, encouraging nurses to document and implement targeted interventions required to manage those risks. An implementation trial framework was used for this research to refine, implement and evaluate the impact of the model on nurses' clinical practice within the psychiatric intensive care unit, predominantly as a quality improvement initiative. The model was trialled for three months using a pre- and postimplementation staff survey, a pretrial file audit and a weekly file audit. Informal staff feedback was also sought via surveys and regular staff meetings. This trial demonstrated improvement in the quality of mental state documentation, and clinical risk information was identified more accurately. There was limited improvement in the quality of care planning and the documentation of clinical interventions. Nurses' initial concerns over the introduction of the model shifted into overall acceptance and recognition of the benefits. The results of this trial demonstrate that the care zoning model was able to improve the consistency and quality of risk assessment information documented. Care planning and evaluation of associated outcomes showed less improvement. Care zoning remains a highly applicable model for the psychiatric intensive care unit environment and is a useful tool in guiding nurses to carry out routine patient risk assessments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons

  9. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  10. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  11. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  12. Extracting additional risk managers information from a risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in deli meats.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Rodríguez, F; van Asselt, E D; Garcia-Gimeno, R M; Zurera, G; Zwietering, M H

    2007-05-01

    The risk assessment study of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods conducted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is an example of an extensive quantitative microbiological risk assessment that could be used by risk analysts and other scientists to obtain information and by managers and stakeholders to make decisions on food safety management. The present study was conducted to investigate how detailed sensitivity analysis can be used by assessors to extract more information on risk factors and how results can be communicated to managers and stakeholders in an understandable way. The extended sensitivity analysis revealed that the extremes at the right side of the dose distribution (at consumption, 9 to 11.5 log CFU per serving) were responsible for most of the cases of listeriosis simulated. For concentration at retail, values below the detection limit of 0.04 CFU/g and the often used limit for L. monocytogenes of 100 CFU/g (also at retail) were associated with a high number of annual cases of listeriosis (about 29 and 82%, respectively). This association can be explained by growth of L. monocytogenes at both average and extreme values of temperature and time, indicating that a wide distribution can lead to high risk levels. Another finding is the importance of the maximal population density (i.e., the maximum concentration of L. monocytogenes assumed at a certain temperature) for accurately estimating the risk of infection by opportunistic pathogens such as L. monocytogenes. According to the obtained results, mainly concentrations corresponding to the highest maximal population densities caused risk in the simulation. However, sensitivity analysis applied to the uncertainty parameters revealed that prevalence at retail was the most important source of uncertainty in the model.

  13. Values in science and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wandall, Birgitte

    2004-09-25

    It is a widely accepted claim that scientific practice contains value judgments, i.e. decisions made on the basis of values. This paper clarifies the concepts involved in this claim and explains its implications for risk assessment. It is explained why values are necessarily a part of science and of risk assessment. A certain type of values that contribute to the aim of science, so-called epistemic values, are identified as rationally justified as basis for judgment in science. It is argued that the aims of pure science and risk assessment differ in some aspects and that consequently pure science's epistemic values are not sufficient for risk assessment. I suggest how the epistemic values may be supplemented in order to align better with the aim of risk assessment. It is concluded that since risk assessment is no less value-laden than pure science, it is important (a) that risk assessors become aware of what values they are (often implicitly) relying on, (b) that the values are justifiable, and (c) that transparency is ensured, i.e. that the values and value-based assumptions applied in particular risk assessments are explicitly acknowledged.

  14. Electronic health record-based cardiac risk assessment and identification of unmet preventive needs.

    PubMed

    Persell, Stephen D; Dunne, Alexis P; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Baker, David W

    2009-04-01

    Cardiac risk assessment may not be routinely performed. Electronic health records (EHRs) offer the potential to automate risk estimation. We compared EHR-based assessment with manual chart review to determine the accuracy of automated cardiac risk estimation and determination of candidates for antiplatelet or lipid-lowering interventions. We performed an observational retrospective study of 23,111 adults aged 20 to 79 years, seen in a large urban primary care group practice. Automated assessments classified patients into 4 cardiac risk groups or as unclassifiable and determined candidates for antiplatelet or lipid-lowering interventions based on current guidelines. A blinded physician manually reviewed 100 patients from each risk group and the unclassifiable group. We determined the agreement between full review and automated assessments for cardiac risk estimation and identification of which patients were candidates for interventions. By automated methods, 9.2% of the population were candidates for lipid-lowering interventions, and 8.0% were candidates for antiplatelet medication. Agreement between automated risk classification and manual review was high (kappa = 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-0.93). Automated methods accurately identified candidates for antiplatelet therapy [sensitivity, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.73-0.89); specificity, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.96-0.99); positive predictive value, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.78-0.94); and negative predictive value, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.97-0.99)] and lipid lowering [sensitivity, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.87-0.96); specificity, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.97-0.99); positive predictive value, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.89-0.99); and negative predictive value, 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98-> or =0.99)]. EHR data can be used to automatically perform cardiovascular risk stratification and identify patients in need of risk-lowering interventions. This could improve detection of high-risk patients whom physicians would otherwise be unaware.

  15. Probabilistic Assessment of Radiation Risk for Astronauts in Space Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; DeAngelis, Giovanni; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2009-01-01

    Accurate predictions of the health risks to astronauts from space radiation exposure are necessary for enabling future lunar and Mars missions. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons, (less than 100 MeV); and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which include protons and heavy ions of higher energies. While the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the solar activity cycle, SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. A solar modulation model has been developed for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment, which is represented by the deceleration potential, phi. The risk of radiation exposure from SPEs during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern for radiation protection, including determining the shielding and operational requirements for astronauts and hardware. To support the probabilistic risk assessment for EVAs, which would be up to 15% of crew time on lunar missions, we estimated the probability of SPE occurrence as a function of time within a solar cycle using a nonhomogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of measurements of protons with energy > 30 MeV, (phi)30. The resultant organ doses and dose equivalents, as well as effective whole body doses for acute and cancer risk estimations are analyzed for a conceptual habitat module and a lunar rover during defined space mission periods. This probabilistic approach to radiation risk assessment from SPE and GCR is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks for space exploration.

  16. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  17. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  18. Home Circadian Phase Assessments with Measures of Compliance Yield Accurate Dim Light Melatonin Onsets

    PubMed Central

    Burgess, Helen J.; Wyatt, James K.; Park, Margaret; Fogg, Louis F.

    2015-01-01

    Study Objectives: There is a need for the accurate assessment of circadian phase outside of the clinic/laboratory, particularly with the gold standard dim light melatonin onset (DLMO). We tested a novel kit designed to assist in saliva sampling at home for later determination of the DLMO. The home kit includes objective measures of compliance to the requirements for dim light and half-hourly saliva sampling. Design: Participants were randomized to one of two 10-day protocols. Each protocol consisted of two back-to-back home and laboratory phase assessments in counterbalanced order, separated by a 5-day break. Setting: Laboratory or participants' homes. Participants: Thirty-five healthy adults, age 21–62 y. Interventions: N/A. Measurements and Results: Most participants received at least one 30-sec epoch of light > 50 lux during the home phase assessments (average light intensity 4.5 lux), but on average for < 9 min of the required 8.5 h. Most participants collected every saliva sample within 5 min of the scheduled time. Ninety-two percent of home DLMOs were not affected by light > 50 lux or sampling errors. There was no significant difference between the home and laboratory DLMOs (P > 0.05); on average the home DLMOs occurred 9.6 min before the laboratory DLMOs. The home DLMOs were highly correlated with the laboratory DLMOs (r = 0.91, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Participants were reasonably compliant to the home phase assessment procedures. The good agreement between the home and laboratory dim light melatonin onsets (DLMOs) demonstrates that including objective measures of light exposure and sample timing during home saliva sampling can lead to accurate home DLMOs. Clinical Trial Registration: Circadian Phase Assessments at Home, http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01487252, NCT01487252. Citation: Burgess HJ, Wyatt JK, Park M, Fogg LF. Home circadian phase assessments with measures of compliance yield accurate dim light melatonin onsets. SLEEP 2015;38(6):889–897

  19. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  20. Associating Changes in the Immune System with Clinical Diseases for Interpretation in Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Germolec, Dori R.; Luebke, Robert W.; Johnson, Victor J.

    2016-01-01

    This overview is an update of the unit originally published in 2004. While the basic tenants of immunotoxicity have not changed in the past 10 years, several publications have explored the application of immunotoxicological data to the risk assessment process. Therefore, the goal of this unit is still to highlight relationships between xenobiotic-induced immunosuppression and risk of clinical diseases progression. In immunotoxicology, this may require development of models to equate moderate changes in markers of immune functions to potential changes in incidence or severity of infectious diseases. For most xenobiotics, exposure levels and disease incidence data are rarely available and safe exposure levels must be estimated based on observations from experimental models or human biomarker studies. Thus, it is important to establish a scientifically sound framework that allows accurate and quantitative interpretation of experimental or biomarker data in the risk assessment process. PMID:26828330

  1. Associating Changes in the Immune System with Clinical Diseases for Interpretation in Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    DeWitt, Jamie C; Germolec, Dori R; Luebke, Robert W; Johnson, Victor J

    2016-02-01

    This overview is an update of the unit originally published in 2004. While the basic tenets of immunotoxicity have not changed in the past 10 years, several publications have explored the application of immunotoxicological data to the risk assessment process. Therefore, the goal of this unit is still to highlight relationships between xenobiotic-induced immunosuppression and risk of clinical diseases progression. In immunotoxicology, this may require development of models to equate moderate changes in markers of immune functions to potential changes in incidence or severity of infectious diseases. For most xenobiotics, exposure levels and disease incidence data are rarely available, and safe exposure levels must be estimated based on observations from experimental models or human biomarker studies. Thus, it is important to establish a scientifically sound framework that allows accurate and quantitative interpretation of experimental or biomarker data in the risk assessment process. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  2. PconsD: ultra rapid, accurate model quality assessment for protein structure prediction.

    PubMed

    Skwark, Marcin J; Elofsson, Arne

    2013-07-15

    Clustering methods are often needed for accurately assessing the quality of modeled protein structures. Recent blind evaluation of quality assessment methods in CASP10 showed that there is little difference between many different methods as far as ranking models and selecting best model are concerned. When comparing many models, the computational cost of the model comparison can become significant. Here, we present PconsD, a fast, stream-computing method for distance-driven model quality assessment that runs on consumer hardware. PconsD is at least one order of magnitude faster than other methods of comparable accuracy. The source code for PconsD is freely available at http://d.pcons.net/. Supplementary benchmarking data are also available there. arne@bioinfo.se Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  3. Physics and biophysics experiments needed for improved risk assessment in space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sihver, L.

    To improve the risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis, late degenerative tissue effects, acute syndromes, synergistic effects of radiation and microgravity or other spacecraft factors, and hereditary effects, on future LEO and interplanetary space missions, the radiobiological effects of cosmic radiation before and after shielding must be well understood. However, cosmic radiation is very complex and includes low and high LET components of many different neutral and charged particles. The understanding of the radiobiology of the heavy ions, from GCRs and SPEs, is still a subject of great concern due to the complicated dependence of their biological effects on the type of ion and energy, and its interaction with various targets both outside and within the spacecraft and the human body. In order to estimate the biological effects of cosmic radiation, accurate knowledge of the physics of the interactions of both charged and non-charged high-LET particles is necessary. Since it is practically impossible to measure all primary and secondary particles from all projectile-target-energy combinations needed for a correct risk assessment in space, accurate particle and heavy ion transport codes might be a helpful instrument to overcome those difficulties. These codes have to be carefully validated to make sure they fulfill preset accuracy criteria, e.g. to be able to predict particle fluence and energy distributions within a certain accuracy. When validating the accuracy of the transport codes, both space and ground-based accelerator experiments are needed. In this paper current and future physics and biophysics experiments needed for improved risk assessment in space will be discussed. The cyclotron HIRFL (heavy ion research facility in Lanzhou) and the new synchrotron CSR (cooling storage ring), which can be used to provide ion beams for space related experiments at the Institute of Modern Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IMP-CAS), will be presented together with

  4. Passive sampling methods for contaminated sediments: Risk assessment and management

    PubMed Central

    Greenberg, Marc S; Chapman, Peter M; Allan, Ian J; Anderson, Kim A; Apitz, Sabine E; Beegan, Chris; Bridges, Todd S; Brown, Steve S; Cargill, John G; McCulloch, Megan C; Menzie, Charles A; Shine, James P; Parkerton, Thomas F

    2014-01-01

    This paper details how activity-based passive sampling methods (PSMs), which provide information on bioavailability in terms of freely dissolved contaminant concentrations (Cfree), can be used to better inform risk management decision making at multiple points in the process of assessing and managing contaminated sediment sites. PSMs can increase certainty in site investigation and management, because Cfree is a better predictor of bioavailability than total bulk sediment concentration (Ctotal) for 4 key endpoints included in conceptual site models (benthic organism toxicity, bioaccumulation, sediment flux, and water column exposures). The use of passive sampling devices (PSDs) presents challenges with respect to representative sampling for estimating average concentrations and other metrics relevant for exposure and risk assessment. These challenges can be addressed by designing studies that account for sources of variation associated with PSMs and considering appropriate spatial scales to meet study objectives. Possible applications of PSMs include: quantifying spatial and temporal trends in bioavailable contaminants, identifying and evaluating contaminant source contributions, calibrating site-specific models, and, improving weight-of-evidence based decision frameworks. PSM data can be used to assist in delineating sediment management zones based on likelihood of exposure effects, monitor remedy effectiveness, and, evaluate risk reduction after sediment treatment, disposal, or beneficial reuse after management actions. Examples are provided illustrating why PSMs and freely dissolved contaminant concentrations (Cfree) should be incorporated into contaminated sediment investigations and study designs to better focus on and understand contaminant bioavailability, more accurately estimate exposure to sediment-associated contaminants, and better inform risk management decisions. Research and communication needs for encouraging broader use are discussed. Integr

  5. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  6. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    PubMed Central

    Bos, Peter M. J.; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F.; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C. E.; Oomen, Agnes G.

    2015-01-01

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy. PMID:26633430

  7. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  8. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  9. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  10. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  11. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Donald R.

    With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

  12. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  13. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  14. Risk assessment of consuming agricultural products irrigated with reclaimed wastewater: An exposure model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Ginneken, Meike; Oron, Gideon

    2000-09-01

    This study assesses health risks to consumers due to the use of agricultural products irrigated with reclaimed wastewater. The analysis is based on a definition of an exposure model which takes into account several parameters: (1) the quality of the applied wastewater, (2) the irrigation method, (3) the elapsed times between irrigation, harvest, and product consumption, and (4) the consumers' habits. The exposure model is used for numerical simulation of human consumers' risks using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of the numerical simulation show large deviations, probably caused by uncertainty (impreciseness in quality of input data) and variability due to diversity among populations. There is a 10-orders of magnitude difference in the risk of infection between the different exposure scenarios with the same water quality. This variation indicates the need for setting risk-based criteria for wastewater reclamation rather than single water quality guidelines. Extra data are required to decrease uncertainty in the risk assessment. Future research needs to include definition of acceptable risk criteria, more accurate dose-response modeling, information regarding pathogen survival in treated wastewater, additional data related to the passage of pathogens into and in the plants during irrigation, and information regarding the behavior patterns of the community of human consumers.

  15. Assessing the effect of public health information by incentivised risk estimation: An example on Swedish snus.

    PubMed

    Bergsvik, Daniel; Rogeberg, Ole

    2018-04-01

    The provision of accurate information on health damaging behaviours and products is a widely accepted and widespread governmental task. It is easily mismanaged. This study demonstrates a simple method which can help to evaluate whether such information corrects recipient risk beliefs. Participants assess risks numerically, before and after being exposed to a relevant risk communication. Accuracy is incentivised by awarding financial prizes to answers closest to a pursued risk belief. To illustrate this method, 228 students from the University of Oslo, Norway, were asked to estimate the mortality risk of Swedish snus and cigarettes twice, before and after being exposed to one of three risk communications with information on the health dangers of snus. The data allow us to measure how participants updated their risk beliefs after being exposed to different risk communications. Risk information from the government strongly distorted risk perceptions for snus. A newspaper article discussing the relative risks of cigarettes and snus reduced belief errors regarding snus risks, but increased belief errors regarding smoking. The perceived quality of the risk communication was not associated with decreased belief errors. Public health information can potentially make the public less informed on risks about harmful products or behaviours. This risk can be reduced by targeting identified, measurable belief errors and empirically assessing how alternative communications affect these. The proposed method of incentivised risk estimation might be helpful in future assessments of risk communications. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Construction risk assessment of deep foundation pit in metro station based on G-COWA method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    You, Weibao; Wang, Jianbo; Zhang, Wei; Liu, Fangmeng; Yang, Diying

    2018-05-01

    In order to get an accurate understanding of the construction safety of deep foundation pit in metro station and reduce the probability and loss of risk occurrence, a risk assessment method based on G-COWA is proposed. Firstly, relying on the specific engineering examples and the construction characteristics of deep foundation pit, an evaluation index system based on the five factors of “human, management, technology, material and environment” is established. Secondly, the C-OWA operator is introduced to realize the evaluation index empowerment and weaken the negative influence of expert subjective preference. The gray cluster analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are combined to construct the construction risk assessment model of deep foundation pit, which can effectively solve the uncertainties. Finally, the model is applied to the actual project of deep foundation pit of Qingdao Metro North Station, determine its construction risk rating is “medium”, evaluate the model is feasible and reasonable. And then corresponding control measures are put forward and useful reference are provided.

  17. Reducing waste in evaluation studies on fall risk assessment tools for older people.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Gabriele; Möhler, Ralph; Köpke, Sascha

    2018-05-18

    To critically appraise the recognition of methodological challenges in evaluation studies on assessment tools and nurses' clinical judgement on fall risk in older people and suggest how to reduce respective research waste. Opinion paper and narrative review covering systematic reviews on studies assessing diagnostic accuracy and impact of assessment tools and/or nurses' clinical judgement. Eighteen reviews published in the last 15 years were analysed. Only one reflects potentially important factors threatening the accuracy of assessments using delayed verification with fall events as reference after a certain period of time, i.e. natural course, preventive measures and treatment paradox where accurate assessment leads to prevention of falls, i.e. influencing the reference standard and falsely indicating low diagnostic accuracy. Also, only one review mentions randomised controlled trials as appropriate study design for the investigation of the impact of fall risk assessment tools on patient-important outcomes. Until now, only one randomised controlled trial dealing with this question has been performed showing no effect on falls and injuries. Instead of investigating the diagnostic accuracy of fall assessment tools, the focus of future research should be on the effectiveness of the implementation of fall assessment tools at reducing falls and injuries. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  19. Independent Review of U.S. and Russian Probabilistic Risk Assessments for the International Space Station Mini Research Module #2 Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Squire, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    The Mini-Research Module-2 (MRM-2), a Russian module on the International Space Station, does not meet its requirements for micrometeoroid and orbital debris probability of no penetration (PNP). To document this condition, the primary Russian Federal Space Agency ISS contractor, S.P. Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation-Energia (RSC-E), submitted an ISS non-compliance report (NCR) which was presented at the 5R Stage Operations Readiness Review (SORR) in October 2009. In the NCR, RSC-E argued for waiving the PNP requirement based on several factors, one of which was the risk of catastrophic failure was acceptably low at 1 in 11,100. However, NASA independently performed an assessment of the catastrophic risk resulting in a value of 1 in 1380 and believed that the risk at that level was unacceptable. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center was requested to evaluate the two competing catastrophic risk values and determine which was more accurate. This document contains the outcome of the assessment.

  20. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  1. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  2. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BENEFITS ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...

  3. Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, Lauri K.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Duncan, Matthew G.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

    2014-01-01

    Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.

  4. Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

    2016-12-01

    Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

  5. Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

    2016-02-01

    Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

  6. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  7. Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

    2017-04-01

    Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

  8. Modeling logistic performance in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of risk distributions. Because food safety risks are generally very small, it is crucial to model the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be modeled by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event modeling. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event modeling in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event modeling in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety.

  9. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  10. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    PubMed

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  11. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

    2015-12-01

    The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

  12. Using random forest for the risk assessment of coal-floor water inrush in Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Dekang; Wu, Qiang; Cui, Fangpeng; Xu, Hua; Zeng, Yifan; Cao, Yufei; Du, Yuanze

    2018-04-01

    Coal-floor water-inrush incidents account for a large proportion of coal mine disasters in northern China, and accurate risk assessment is crucial for safe coal production. A novel and promising assessment model for water inrush is proposed based on random forest (RF), which is a powerful intelligent machine-learning algorithm. RF has considerable advantages, including high classification accuracy and the capability to evaluate the importance of variables; in particularly, it is robust in dealing with the complicated and non-linear problems inherent in risk assessment. In this study, the proposed model is applied to Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China. Eight factors were selected as evaluation indices according to systematic analysis of the geological conditions and a field survey of the study area. Risk assessment maps were generated based on RF, and the probabilistic neural network (PNN) model was also used for risk assessment as a comparison. The results demonstrate that the two methods are consistent in the risk assessment of water inrush at the mine, and RF shows a better performance compared to PNN with an overall accuracy higher by 6.67%. It is concluded that RF is more practicable to assess the water-inrush risk than PNN. The presented method will be helpful in avoiding water inrush and also can be extended to various engineering applications.

  13. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  14. PBPK Models, BBDR Models, and Virtual Tissues: How Will They Contribute to the Use of Toxicity Pathways in Risk Assessment?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Accuracy in risk assessment, which is desirable in order to ensure protection of the public health while avoiding over-regulation of economically-important substances, requires quantitatively accurate, in vivo descriptions of dose-response and time-course behaviors. This level of...

  15. PARS risk charts: A 10-year study of risk assessment for cardiovascular diseases in Eastern Mediterranean Region

    PubMed Central

    Talaei, Mohammad; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Roohafza, Hamid Reza; Masoudkabir, Farzad; OveisGharan, Shahram; Mohebian, Mohammad Reza; Mañanas, Miquel Angel

    2017-01-01

    This study was designed to develop a risk assessment chart for the clinical management and prevention of the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Iranian population, which is vital for developing national prevention programs. The Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS) is a population-based prospective study of 6504 Iranian adults ≥35 years old, followed-up for ten years, from 2001 to 2010. Behavioral and cardiometabolic risk factors were examined every five years, while biennial follow-ups for the occurrence of the events was performed by phone calls or by verbal autopsy. Among these participants, 5432 (2784 women, 51.3%) were CVD free at baseline examination and had at least one follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict the risk of ischemic CVD events, including sudden cardiac death due to unstable angina, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The model fit statistics such as area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC), calibration chi-square and the overall bias were used to assess the model performance. We also tested the Framingham model for comparison. Seven hundred and five CVD events occurred during 49452.8 person-years of follow-up. The event probabilities were calculated and presented color-coded on each gender-specific PARS chart. The AUROC and Harrell’s C indices were 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72–0.76) and 0.73, respectively. In the calibration, the Nam-D’Agostino χ2 was 10.82 (p = 0.29). The overall bias of the proposed model was 95.60%. PARS model was also internally validated using cross-validation. The Android app and the Web-based risk assessment tool were also developed as to have an impact on public health. In comparison, the refitted and recalibrated Framingham models, estimated the CVD incidence with the overall bias of 149.60% and 128.23% for men, and 222.70% and 176.07% for women, respectively. In conclusion, the PARS risk assessment chart is a simple, accurate, and well-calibrated tool for predicting a 10-year risk of

  16. Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

  17. Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide.

    PubMed

    Belfrage, Henrik; Strand, Susanne; Storey, Jennifer E; Gibas, Andrea L; Kropp, P Randall; Hart, Stephen D

    2012-02-01

    Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  19. Panel 2: anticipatory risk assessment: identifying, assessing, and mitigating exposure risks before they occur.

    PubMed

    Guidotti, Tee L; Pacha, Laura

    2011-07-01

    Health threats place the military mission and deployed service members at risk. A commander's focus is on preventing acute health risks, such as diarrhea, because these quickly compromise the mission. However, in recent conflicts chronic and long-term illness risks have emerged as concerns. Department of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff mandates require documentation of exposures and environmental conditions to reconstruct exposures and evaluate future health risks. Current processes for identifying and assessing hazards, including identification and assessment before deployment and in time to take action to prevent or reduce exposures, when followed, are generally adequate for known hazards. Identifying and addressing novel, unexpected risks remain challenges. Armed conflicts are associated with rapidly changing conditions, making ongoing hazard identification and assessment difficult. Therefore, surveillance of the environment for hazards and surveillance of personnel for morbidity must be practiced at all times. Communication of risk information to decision makers is critical but problematic. Preventive Medicine (PM) personnel should take responsibility for communicating this information to non-PM military medical people and to military commanders. Communication of risks identified and lessons learned between PM personnel of different military units is extremely important when one military unit replaces another in a deployed environment.

  20. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  1. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  2. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  3. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    PubMed

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  4. Risk assessment for furan contamination through the food chain in Belgian children.

    PubMed

    Scholl, Georges; Huybrechts, Inge; Humblet, Marie-France; Scippo, Marie-Louise; De Pauw, Edwin; Eppe, Gauthier; Saegerman, Claude

    2012-08-01

    Young, old, pregnant and immuno-compromised persons are of great concern for risk assessors as they represent the sub-populations most at risk. The present paper focuses on risk assessment linked to furan exposure in children. Only the Belgian population was considered because individual contamination and consumption data that are required for accurate risk assessment were available for Belgian children only. Two risk assessment approaches, the so-called deterministic and probabilistic, were applied and the results were compared for the estimation of daily intake. A significant difference between the average Estimated Daily Intake (EDI) was underlined between the deterministic (419 ng kg⁻¹ body weight (bw) day⁻¹) and the probabilistic (583 ng kg⁻¹ bw day⁻¹) approaches, which results from the mathematical treatment of the null consumption and contamination data. The risk was characterised by two ways: (1) the classical approach by comparison of the EDI to a reference dose (RfD(chronic-oral)) and (2) the most recent approach, namely the Margin of Exposure (MoE) approach. Both reached similar conclusions: the risk level is not of a major concern, but is neither negligible. In the first approach, only 2.7 or 6.6% (respectively in the deterministic and in the probabilistic way) of the studied population presented an EDI above the RfD(chronic-oral). In the second approach, the percentage of children displaying a MoE above 10,000 and below 100 is 3-0% and 20-0.01% in the deterministic and probabilistic modes, respectively. In addition, children were compared to adults and significant differences between the contamination patterns were highlighted. While major contamination was linked to coffee consumption in adults (55%), no item predominantly contributed to the contamination in children. The most important were soups (19%), dairy products (17%), pasta and rice (11%), fruit and potatoes (9% each).

  5. Assessing Breast Cancer Risk Estimates Based on the Gail Model and Its Predictors in Qatari Women.

    PubMed

    Bener, Abdulbari; Çatan, Funda; El Ayoubi, Hanadi R; Acar, Ahmet; Ibrahim, Wanis H

    2017-07-01

    The Gail model is the most widely used breast cancer risk assessment tool. An accurate assessment of individual's breast cancer risk is very important for prevention of the disease and for the health care providers to make decision on taking chemoprevention for high-risk women in clinical practice in Qatar. To assess the breast cancer risk among Arab women population in Qatar using the Gail model and provide a global comparison of risk assessment. In this cross-sectional study of 1488 women (aged 35 years and older), we used the Gail Risk Assessment Tool to assess the risk of developing breast cancer. Sociodemographic features such as age, lifestyle habits, body mass index, breast-feeding duration, consanguinity among parents, and family history of breast cancer were considered as possible risks. The mean age of the study population was 47.8 ± 10.8 years. Qatari women and Arab women constituted 64.7% and 35.3% of the study population, respectively. The mean 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risks were 1.12 ± 0.52 and 10.57 ± 3.1, respectively. Consanguineous marriage among parents was seen in 30.6% of participants. We found a relationship between the 5-year and lifetime risks of breast cancer and variables such as age, age at menarche, gravidity, parity, body mass index, family history of cancer, menopause age, occupation, and level of education. The linear regression analysis identified the predictors for breast cancer in women such as age, age at menarche, age of first birth, family history and age of menopausal were considered the strong predictors and significant contributing risk factors for breast cancer after adjusting for ethnicity, parity and other variables. The current study is the first to evaluate the performance of the Gail model for Arab women population in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Gail model is an appropriate breast cancer risk assessment tool for female population in Qatar.

  6. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C.; Renn, Ortwin

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the socialmore » impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.« less

  8. Non-invasive assessment of low- and intermediate-risk patients with chest pain

    PubMed Central

    Balfour, Pelbreton C.; Gonzalez, Jorge A.; Kramer, Christopher M.

    2016-01-01

    Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains a significant global public health burden despite advancements in prevention and therapeutic strategies. Common non-invasive imaging modalities, anatomic and functional, are available for the assessment of patients with stable chest pain. Exercise electrocardiography is a long-standing method for evaluation for CAD and remains the initial test for the majority of patients who can exercise adequately with a baseline interpretable electrocardiogram. The addition of cardiac imaging to exercise testing provides incremental benefit for accurate diagnosis for CAD and is particularly useful in patients who are unable to exercise adequately and/or have uninterpretable electrocardiograms. Radionuclide myocardial perfusion imaging and echocardiography with exercise or pharmacological stress provide high sensitivity and specificity in the detection and further risk stratification of patients with CAD. Recently, coronary computed tomography angiography has demonstrated its growing role to rule out significant CAD given its high negative predictive value. Although less available, stress cardiac magnetic resonance provides a comprehensive assessment of cardiac structure and function and provides a high diagnostic accuracy in the detection of CAD. The utilization of non-invasive testing is complex due to various advantages and limitations, particularly in the assessment of low- and intermediate-risk patients with chest pain, where no single study is suitable for all patients. This review will describe currently available non-invasive modalities, along with current evidence-based guidelines and appropriate use criteria in the assessment of low- and intermediate-risk patients with suspected, stable CAD. PMID:27717538

  9. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Treesearch

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  10. National-scale Assessment of Air Toxics Risks

    EPA Science Inventory

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

  11. A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

    PubMed

    Bassett, J; McClure, P

    2008-04-01

    To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

  12. OPPT workplan risk assessment Methylene Chloride ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of DCM, there are human health concerns for both cancer and non-cancer effects. This DCM assessment of paint stripping uses will focus only on inhalation exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of DCM will be discussed in the assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  13. Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab

    2015-04-01

    The increasing number of geological hazards in Malaysia has often resulted in casualties and extensive devastation with high mitigation cost. Given the destructive capacity and high frequency of disaster, Malaysia has taken a step forward to address the multi-scale landslide risk reduction emphasizing pre-disaster action rather than post-disaster reaction. Slope hazard and risk assessment in a quantitative manner at regional and national scales remains challenging in Malaysia. This paper presents the comprehensive methodology framework and operational needs driven by modern and advanced geospatial technology to address the aforementioned issues in the tropics. The Slope Hazard and Risk Mapping, the first national project in Malaysia utilizing the multi-sensor LIDAR has been critically implemented with the support of multi- and trans-disciplinary partners. The methodological model has been formulated and evaluated given the complexity of risk scenarios in this knowledge driven project. Instability slope problems in the urban, mountainous and tectonic landscape are amongst them, and their spatial information is of crucial for regional landslide assessment. We develop standard procedures with optimal parameterization for susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment in the selected regions. Remarkably, we are aiming at producing an utmost complete landslide inventory in both space and time. With the updated reliable terrain and landscape models, the landslide conditioning factor maps can be accurately derived depending on the landslide types and failure mechanisms which crucial for hazard and risk assessment. We also aim to improve the generation of elements at risk for landslide and promote integrated approaches for a better disaster risk analysis. As a result, a new tool, notably multi-sensor LIDAR technology is a very promising tool for an old geological problem and its derivative data for hazard and risk analysis is an effective preventive measure in Malaysia

  14. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  15. Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

    PubMed

    Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

    2014-05-01

    To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

  16. Model-based risk assessment and public health analysis to prevent Lyme disease

    PubMed Central

    Sabounchi, Nasim S.; Roome, Amanda; Spathis, Rita; Garruto, Ralph M.

    2017-01-01

    The number of Lyme disease (LD) cases in the northeastern United States has been dramatically increasing with over 300 000 new cases each year. This is due to numerous factors interacting over time including low public awareness of LD, risk behaviours and clothing choices, ecological and climatic factors, an increase in rodents within ecologically fragmented peri-urban built environments and an increase in tick density and infectivity in such environments. We have used a system dynamics (SD) approach to develop a simulation tool to evaluate the significance of risk factors in replicating historical trends of LD cases, and to investigate the influence of different interventions, such as increasing awareness, controlling clothing risk and reducing mouse populations, in reducing LD risk. The model accurately replicates historical trends of LD cases. Among several interventions tested using the simulation model, increasing public awareness most significantly reduces the number of LD cases. This model provides recommendations for LD prevention, including further educational programmes to raise awareness and control behavioural risk. This model has the potential to be used by the public health community to assess the risk of exposure to LD. PMID:29291075

  17. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  18. Osteoporosis risk prediction for bone mineral density assessment of postmenopausal women using machine learning.

    PubMed

    Yoo, Tae Keun; Kim, Sung Kean; Kim, Deok Won; Choi, Joon Yul; Lee, Wan Hyung; Oh, Ein; Park, Eun-Cheol

    2013-11-01

    A number of clinical decision tools for osteoporosis risk assessment have been developed to select postmenopausal women for the measurement of bone mineral density. We developed and validated machine learning models with the aim of more accurately identifying the risk of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women compared to the ability of conventional clinical decision tools. We collected medical records from Korean postmenopausal women based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. The training data set was used to construct models based on popular machine learning algorithms such as support vector machines (SVM), random forests, artificial neural networks (ANN), and logistic regression (LR) based on simple surveys. The machine learning models were compared to four conventional clinical decision tools: osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST), osteoporosis risk assessment instrument (ORAI), simple calculated osteoporosis risk estimation (SCORE), and osteoporosis index of risk (OSIRIS). SVM had significantly better area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic than ANN, LR, OST, ORAI, SCORE, and OSIRIS for the training set. SVM predicted osteoporosis risk with an AUC of 0.827, accuracy of 76.7%, sensitivity of 77.8%, and specificity of 76.0% at total hip, femoral neck, or lumbar spine for the testing set. The significant factors selected by SVM were age, height, weight, body mass index, duration of menopause, duration of breast feeding, estrogen therapy, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, osteoarthritis, and diabetes mellitus. Considering various predictors associated with low bone density, the machine learning methods may be effective tools for identifying postmenopausal women at high risk for osteoporosis.

  19. Incorporating Equipment Condition Assessment in Risk Monitors for Advanced Small Modular Reactors

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Coble, Jamie B.; Coles, Garill A.; Meyer, Ryan M.

    2013-10-01

    Advanced small modular reactors (aSMRs) can complement the current fleet of large light-water reactors in the USA for baseload and peak demand power production and process heat applications (e.g., water desalination, shale oil extraction, hydrogen production). The day-to-day costs of aSMRs are expected to be dominated by operations and maintenance (O&M); however, the effect of diverse operating missions and unit modularity on O&M is not fully understood. These costs could potentially be reduced by optimized scheduling, with risk-informed scheduling of maintenance, repair, and replacement of equipment. Currently, most nuclear power plants have a “living” probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which reflectsmore » the as-operated, as-modified plant and combine event probabilities with population-based probability of failure (POF) for key components. “Risk monitors” extend the PRA by incorporating the actual and dynamic plant configuration (equipment availability, operating regime, environmental conditions, etc.) into risk assessment. In fact, PRAs are more integrated into plant management in today’s nuclear power plants than at any other time in the history of nuclear power. However, population-based POF curves are still used to populate fault trees; this approach neglects the time-varying condition of equipment that is relied on during standard and non-standard configurations. Equipment condition monitoring techniques can be used to estimate the component POF. Incorporating this unit-specific estimate of POF in the risk monitor can provide a more accurate estimate of risk in different operating and maintenance configurations. This enhanced risk assessment will be especially important for aSMRs that have advanced component designs, which don’t have an available operating history to draw from, and often use passive design features, which present challenges to PRA. This paper presents the requirements and technical gaps for developing a framework to

  20. Fall risk assessment and prevention.

    PubMed

    Kline, Nancy E; Davis, Mary Elizabeth; Thom, Bridgette

    2011-02-01

    Patient falls are a common cause of morbidity and are the leading cause of injury deaths in adults age 65 years and older. Injuries sustained as result of falls in a cancer hospital are often severe, regardless of patient age, due to the nature of the underlying cancer. Falls are a nursing-sensitive indicator and nurses are in a unique position to assess, design, implement, and evaluate programs for fall risk reduction. We analyzed our nursing processes related to falls and fall prevention in conjunction with an evidence-based review, a research study to improve our fall risk-assessment process, and development of a comprehensive fall-reduction program. This article outlines how our institution developed a fall risk assessment for the oncology patient population, and utilized this assessment in a comprehensive nursing approach to fall prevention in both inpatient and outpatient settings.

  1. Accurate and inaccurate HIV transmission beliefs, stigmatizing and HIV protection motivation in northern Thailand.

    PubMed

    Boer, H; Emons, P A A

    2004-02-01

    We assessed the relation between accurate beliefs about HIV transmission and inaccurate beliefs about HIV transmission and emotional reactions to people with AIDS (PWA) and AIDS risk groups, stigmatizing attitudes and motivation to protect from HIV. In Chiang Rai, northern Thailand, 219 respondents filled in a structured questionnaire assessing accurate and inaccurate HIV transmission beliefs, emotional reactions towards PWA and AIDS risk groups, stigmatizing attitudes and motivation to protect from HIV according to variables from Protection Motivation Theory. Complete accurate beliefs about documented modes of HIV transmission were present in 47% of the respondents, while 26% of the respondents held one or more inaccurate beliefs about HIV transmission. Incomplete beliefs about documented modes of transmission were significantly related to stigmatizing beliefs towards people with AIDS (PWA), to lower vulnerability of HIV infection and lower self-efficacy in protection. Those who held inaccurate beliefs about HIV transmission reported more fear towards PWA and homosexuals and more irritation towards PWA and commercial sex workers. Persons who held inaccurate beliefs about HIV transmission also reported more stigmatizing attitudes, perceived AIDS as less severe, perceived a lower vulnerability and were less motivated to use condoms. Results of this study suggest that inaccurate beliefs about HIV transmission are related to fear and stigmatizing and undermine HIV prevention behaviour.

  2. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    PubMed

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  3. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Barlow, Susan, E-mail: suebarlow@mistral.co.u; Schlatter, Josef; Federal Office of Public Health, Consumer Protection Directorate, Stauffacherstrasse 101, CH-8004 Zuerich

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitudemore » below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.« less

  4. Accurate determination of high-risk coronary lesion type by multidetector cardiac computed tomography.

    PubMed

    Alasnag, Mirvat; Umakanthan, Branavan; Foster, Gary P

    2008-07-01

    Coronary arteriography (CA) is the standard method to image coronary lesions. Multidetector cardiac computerized tomography (MDCT) provides high-resolution images of coronary arteries, allowing a noninvasive alternative to determine lesion type. To date, no studies have assessed the ability of MDCT to categorize coronary lesion types. The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy of lesion type categorization by MDCT using CA as a reference standard. Patients who underwent both MDCT and CA within 2 months of each other were enrolled. MDCT and CA images were reviewed in a blinded fashion. Lesions were categorized according to the SCAI classification system (Types I-IV). The origin, proximal and middle segments of the major arteries were analyzed. Each segment comprised a data point for comparison. Analysis was performed using the Spearman Correlation Test. Four hundred eleven segments were studied, of which 110 had lesions. The lesion distribution was as follows: 35 left anterior descending (LAD), 29 circumflex (Cx), 31 right coronary artery (RCA), 2 ramus intermedius, 8 diagonal, 4 obtuse marginal and 2 left internal mammary arteries. Correlations between MDCT and CA were significant in all major vessels (LAD, Cx, RCA) (p < 0.001). The overall correlation coefficient was 0.67. Concordance was strong for lesion Types II-IV (97%) and poor for Type I (30%). High-risk coronary lesion types can be accurately categorized by MDCT. This ability may allow MDCT to play an important noninvasive role in the planning of coronary interventions.

  5. Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species.

    PubMed

    Runge, Claire A; Tulloch, Ayesha; Hammill, Edd; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A

    2015-06-01

    Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to-and-fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid-zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation

  6. Environmental risk assessment for plant pests: a procedure to evaluate their impacts on ecosystem services.

    PubMed

    Gilioli, G; Schrader, G; Baker, R H A; Ceglarska, E; Kertész, V K; Lövei, G; Navajas, M; Rossi, V; Tramontini, S; van Lenteren, J C

    2014-01-15

    The current methods to assess the environmental impacts of plant pests differ in their approaches and there is a lack of the standardized procedures necessary to provide accurate and consistent results, demonstrating the complexity of developing a commonly accepted scheme for this purpose. By including both the structural and functional components of the environment threatened by invasive alien species (IAS), in particular plant pests, we propose an environmental risk assessment scheme that addresses this complexity. Structural components are investigated by evaluating the impacts of the plant pest on genetic, species and landscape diversity. Functional components are evaluated by estimating how plant pests modify ecosystem services in order to determine the extent to which an IAS changes the functional traits that influence ecosystem services. A scenario study at a defined spatial and temporal resolution is then used to explore how an IAS, as an exogenous driving force, may trigger modifications in the target environment. The method presented here provides a standardized approach to generate comparable and reproducible results for environmental risk assessment as a component of Pest Risk Analysis. The method enables the assessment of overall environmental risk which integrates the impacts on different components of the environment and their probabilities of occurrence. The application of the proposed scheme is illustrated by evaluating the environmental impacts of the invasive citrus long-horn beetle, Anoplophora chinensis. © 2013.

  7. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

    PubMed Central

    Coffey, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

  8. Ethics and transparent risk communication start with proper risk assessment methodologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oboni, Franco; Oboni, Cesar

    2014-05-01

    We will use throught this paper a "dialogue" between two professionals. One is aware of the misleading character of many risk assessments and wants to foster better approaches. A discomforting set of statements sets the background of the "story": public reactions to risk assessments are generally negative, the developer find it difficult to understand the reasons for general public negative reactions, many projects get often rejected without valid reasons by the public, anywhere in the world. Common practice approaches in Risk Assessment are discussed from the angle of public rejection, taking into account various studies that explicitly expose common practices limitations and voids. The hiatus between rational and well-balanced risk assessments and common practices is explored. Finally solutions to overcome the limitations of common practices and deliver to the public more realistic risk assessment on which to build a widespread consensus are reviewed. The paper conclusions relate to the need of: properly communicating risk throughout the life of a project, from cradle to grave, avoiding conflict of interest, having estimates that are understandable to foster good understanding of what a risk assessment can bring to better Human existence, in an ethical and fair way. The paper delivers a list of possible remedies and shows that "Common Practices" do not equate to "Best Practices": common practices are not to be proposed/used any longer if we want to avoid public distrust and misrepresentations. Many of the "modern" issues ranging from public distrust to insurance denial could be relieved or mitigated ahead of time if misrepresentation was kept at bay using five simple rules. Common practice Risk Assessments, especially those developed under conflict of interest situations, generally misrepresent risks and fail to give the "big picture", hence do not help taking valid decision and are prone to generating/fostering public distrust.

  9. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  10. The Use of Biomonitoring Data in Exposure and Human Health Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Albertini, Richard; Bird, Michael; Doerrer, Nancy; Needham, Larry; Robison, Steven; Sheldon, Linda; Zenick, Harold

    2006-01-01

    Biomonitoring uses analytic methods that permit the accurate measurement of low levels of environmental chemicals in human tissues. However, depending on the intended use, biomonitoring, like all exposure tools, may not be a stand-alone exposure assessment tool for some of its environmental public health uses. Although biomonitoring data demonstrate that many environmental chemicals are absorbed in human tissues, uncertainty exists regarding if and at what concentrations many of these chemicals cause adverse health outcomes. Moreover, without exposure pathway information, it is difficult to relate biomonitoring results to sources and routes of exposure and develop effective health risk management strategies. In September 2004, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, and International Council of Chemical Associations co-sponsored the International Biomonitoring Workshop, which explored the processes and information needed for placing biomonitoring data into perspective for risk assessment purposes, with special emphasis on integrating biomarker measurements of exposure, internal dose, and potential health outcome. Scientists from international governments, academia, and industry recommended criteria for applying biomonitoring data for various uses. Six case studies, which are part of this mini-monograph, were examined: inorganic arsenic, methyl eugenol, organophosphorus pesticides, perfluorooctanesulfonate, phthalates, and polybrominated diphenyl ethers. Based on the workshop and follow-up discussions, this overview article summarizes lessons learned, identifies data gaps, outlines research needs, and offers guidance for designing and conducting biomonitoring studies, as well as interpreting biomonitoring data in the context of risk assessment and risk management. PMID:17107864

  11. Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment: Overview of Exposure Assessment, Whole Mixtures Assessments; Basic Concepts

    EPA Science Inventory

    This problems-based, half-day, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks f...

  12. Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-01

    17 5.4.2 Step 2: Gather relevant technology and alternative information............... 17 5.4.3 Step 3: Secure SME support for readiness...level assessment. ................... 17 5.4.4 Step 4: SMEs assess TRL, IRL, and MRL for each technology. .............. 17 5.4.5 Step 5: Identify...technical risks, risk ratings, and mitigations. .................. 20 5.4.6 Step 6: SMEs identify key technologies

  13. Fall risk assessment among older adults with mild Alzheimer disease.

    PubMed

    Ryan, John J; McCloy, Constance; Rundquist, Peter; Srinivasan, Visalakshi; Laird, Rosemary

    2011-01-01

    Older adults with Alzheimer disease (AD) fall more than twice as often as those without dementia, yet few studies have assessed fall risk in this population. The purpose of the study was to determine whether a fall assessment, the Physical Performance Test 7-item (PPT 7-item), could accurately identify subjects with history of falls in a group of community-dwelling elders with mild AD. An additional purpose was to determine whether the PPT 7-item, a cognitive screen, and/or nonperformance data could predict falling in this population. Forty-three community-dwelling elders diagnosed with mild AD completed the fall risk assessment. In addition, the following data were collected: Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score, age, gender, education, gait aid use, number of falls in the past 6 months, and history of fall-related injury. There was a significant difference in the PPT 7-item total score between subjects with history of falls and subjects without history of falls (z = -2.04, P = .042), with items related to turning (z = -2.56, P = .01) and walking (z = -2.89, P = .004) accounting for most of the difference. However, only gait aid usage predicted falling (45.8% of the variance). While the PPT 7-item was able to detect differences in mobility between subjects with history of falls and subjects without history of falls in subjects with mild AD, total PPT 7-item score did not predict falling. Gait aid usage was more strongly related to falling in these subjects. Early detection of fall risk in individuals with mild AD is important to prevent injuries and moderate costs of care.

  14. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.

    1997-08-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less

  15. Human health risk assessment for nanoparticle-contaminated aquifer systems.

    PubMed

    Tosco, Tiziana; Sethi, Rajandrea

    2018-08-01

    Nanosized particles (NPs), such as TiO 2 , Silver, graphene NPs, nanoscale zero-valent iron, carbon nanotubes, etc., are increasingly used in industrial processes, and releases at production plants and from landfills are likely scenarios for the next years. As a consequence, appropriate procedures and tools to quantify the risks for human health associated to these releases are needed. The tiered approach of the standard ASTM procedure (ASTM-E2081-00) is today the most applied for human health risk assessment at sites contaminated by chemical substances, but it cannot be directly applied to nanoparticles: NP transport along migration pathways follows mechanisms significantly different from those of chemicals; moreover, also toxicity indicators (namely, reference dose and slope factor) are NP-specific. In this work a risk assessment approach modified for NPs is proposed, with a specific application at Tier 2 to migration in groundwater. The standard ASTM equations are modified to include NP-specific transport mechanisms. NPs in natural environments are typically characterized by a heterogeneous set of NPs having different size, shape, coating, etc. (all properties having a significant impact on both mobility and toxicity). To take into account this heterogeneity, the proposed approach divides the NP population into classes, each having specific transport and toxicity properties, and simulates them as independent species. The approach is finally applied to a test case simulating the release of heterogeneous Silver NPs from a landfill. The results show that taking into account the size-dependent mobility of the particles provides a more accurate result compared to the direct application of the standard ASTM procedure. In particular, the latter tends to underestimate the overall toxic risk associated to the nP release. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

  17. Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at ‘high risk’: a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools

    PubMed Central

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2015-01-01

    Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180

  18. Preconception risk assessment of infertile couples

    PubMed Central

    Nekuei, Nafisehsadat; Kazemi, Ashraf; Ehsanpur, Soheila; Beigi, Nastaran Mohammad Ali

    2013-01-01

    Background: With regard to the importance of preconception conditions in maternal health and fertility, preconception risk assessment makes treatment trends and pregnancy outcome more successful among infertile couples. This study has tried to investigate preconception risk assessment in infertile couples. Materials and Methods: This is a descriptive analytical survey conducted on 268 subjects, selected by convenient sampling, referring to Isfahan infertility centers (Iran). The data were collected by questionnaires through interview and clients’ medical records. Pre-pregnancy risk assessment including history taking (personal, familial, medical, medications, menstruation, and pregnancy), exams (physical, genital, and vital signs), and routine test requests (routine, cervix, infections, and biochemical tests) was performed in the present study. Results: The results showed that the lowest percentage of taking a complete history was for personal history (0.4%) and the highest was for history of menstruation (100%). The lowest percentage of complete exam was for physical exam (3.4%) and the highest for genital exam (100%). With regard to laboratory assessment, the highest percentage was for routine tests (36.6%) and the lowest was for infection tests (0.4%). Conclusion: Based o the results of the present study, most of the risk assessment components are poorly assessed in infertile couples. With regard to the importance of infertility treatment, spending high costs and time on that, and existence of high-risk individuals as well as treatment failures, health providers should essentially pay special attention to preconception risk assessment in infertile couples in order to enhance the chance of success and promote treatment outcome. PMID:23983724

  19. Evaluating risk assessments using receiver operating characteristic analysis: rationale, advantages, insights, and limitations.

    PubMed

    Mossman, Douglas

    2013-01-01

    The last two decades have witnessed major changes in the way that mental health professionals assess, describe, and think about persons' risk for future violence. Psychiatrists and psychologists have gone from believing that they could not predict violence to feeling certain they can assess violence risk with well-above-chance accuracy. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis has played a central role in changing this view. This article reviews the key concepts underlying ROC methods, the meaning of the area under the ROC curve (AUC), the relationship between AUC and effect size d, and what these two indices tell us about evaluations of violence risk. The area under the ROC curve and d provide succinct but incomplete descriptions of discrimination capacity. These indices do not provide details about sensitivity-specificity trade-offs; they do not tell us how to balance false-positive and false-negative errors; and they do not determine whether a diagnostic system is accurate enough to make practically useful distinctions between violent and non-violent subject groups. Justifying choices or clinical practices requires a contextual investigation of outcomes, a process that takes us beyond simply knowing global indices of accuracy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. A systematic review of balance and fall risk assessments with mobile phone technology.

    PubMed

    Roeing, Kathleen L; Hsieh, Katherine L; Sosnoff, Jacob J

    2017-11-01

    Falls are a major health concern for older adults. Preventative measures can help reduce the incidence and severity of falls. Methods for assessing balance and fall risk factors are necessary to effectively implement preventative measures. Research groups are currently developing mobile applications to enable seniors, caregivers, and clinicians to monitor balance and fall risk. The following systematic review assesses the current state of mobile health apps for testing balance as a fall risk factor. Thirteen studies were identified and included in the review and analyzed based on study design, population, sample size, measures of balance, main outcome measures, and evaluation of validity and reliability. All studies successfully tested their applications, but only 38% evaluated the validity, and 23% evaluated the reliability of their applications. Of those, all applications were found to accurately and reliably measure balance on select variables. Four of the 13 studies included special populations groups. Out of the 13 studies, 12 reported clinicians as their intended user and seven reported seniors as their intended user. Further research should examine the validity of mobile health applications as well as report on the application's usability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  2. Assessing diet in populations at risk for konzo and neurolathyrism.

    PubMed

    Dufour, Darna L

    2011-03-01

    Although both konzo and neurolathyrism are diseases associated with diet, we know surprising little about the diets of the groups at risk. The objective of this paper is to discuss methods for assessing dietary intake in populations at risk for konzo and lathyrism. These methods include weighed food records and interview based techniques like 24-h recalls and food frequency questionnaires (FFQs). Food records have the potential to provide accurate information on food quantities, and are generally the method of choice. Interview based methods provide less precise information on the quantities of foods ingested, and are subject to recall bias, but may be useful in some studies or for surveillance. Sample size needs to be adequate to account for day-to-day and seasonal variability in food intake, and differences between age and sex groups. Adequate data on the composition of foods, as actually consumed, are needed to evaluate the food intake information. This is especially important in the case of cassava and grass pea where the toxins in the diet is a function of processing. Biomarkers for assessing the cyanogen exposure from cassava-based diets are available; biomarkers for the β-ODAP exposure from grass pea diets need development. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk assessment for juvenile justice: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Schwalbe, Craig S

    2007-10-01

    Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.

  4. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  5. Antenatal corticosteroids: an assessment of anticipated benefits and potential risks.

    PubMed

    Jobe, Alan H; Goldenberg, Robert L

    2018-04-07

    Antenatal corticosteroids are standard of care for pregnancies at risk of preterm delivery between 24-34 weeks' gestational age. Recent trials demonstrate modest benefits from antenatal corticosteroids for late preterm and elective cesarean deliveries, and antenatal corticosteroids for periviable deliveries should be considered with family discussion. However, many women with threatened preterm deliveries receive antenatal corticosteroids but do not deliver until >34 weeks or at term. The net effect is that a substantial fraction of the delivery population will be exposed to antenatal corticosteroids. There are gaps in accurate assessments of benefits of antenatal corticosteroids because the randomized controlled trials were performed prior to about 1990 in pregnancies generally >28 weeks. The care practices for the mother and infant survival were different than today. The randomized controlled trial data also do not strongly support the optimal interval from antenatal corticosteroid treatment to delivery of 1-7 days. Epidemiology-based studies using large cohorts with >85% of at-risk pregnancies treated with antenatal corticosteroids probably overestimate the benefits of antenatal corticosteroids. Although most of the prematurity-associated mortality is in low-resource environments, the efficacy and safety of antenatal corticosteroids in those environments remain to be evaluated. The short-term benefits of antenatal corticosteroids for high-risk pregnancies in high-resource environments certainly justify antenatal corticosteroids as few risks have been identified over many years. However, cardiovascular and metabolic abnormalities have been identified in large animal models and cohorts of children exposed to antenatal corticosteroids that are consistent with fetal programming for adult diseases. These late effects of antenatal corticosteroids suggest caution for the expanded use of antenatal corticosteroids beyond at-risk pregnancies at 24-34 weeks. A way forward

  6. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  8. Presidential Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    September 26, 1997. The Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, which was mandated as part of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, was disbanded on August 31, 1997, with some staff work continuing into September. The reports and asso...

  9. Advances in Inhalation Dosimetry Models and Methods for Occupational Risk Assessment and Exposure Limit Derivation

    PubMed Central

    Kuempel, Eileen D.; Sweeney, Lisa M.; Morris, John B.; Jarabek, Annie M.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide an overview and practical guide to occupational health professionals concerning the derivation and use of dose estimates in risk assessment for development of occupational exposure limits (OELs) for inhaled substances. Dosimetry is the study and practice of measuring or estimating the internal dose of a substance in individuals or a population. Dosimetry thus provides an essential link to understanding the relationship between an external exposure and a biological response. Use of dosimetry principles and tools can improve the accuracy of risk assessment, and reduce the uncertainty, by providing reliable estimates of the internal dose at the target tissue. This is accomplished through specific measurement data or predictive models, when available, or the use of basic dosimetry principles for broad classes of materials. Accurate dose estimation is essential not only for dose-response assessment, but also for interspecies extrapolation and for risk characterization at given exposures. Inhalation dosimetry is the focus of this paper since it is a major route of exposure in the workplace. Practical examples of dose estimation and OEL derivation are provided for inhaled gases and particulates. PMID:26551218

  10. Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, William; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

  11. A Wide Area Risk Assessment Framework for Underwater Military Munitions Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, K. T.; Calantoni, J.

    2017-12-01

    Our objective was to develop a prototype statistical framework supporting Wide Area Assessment and Remedial Investigation decisions relating to the risk of unexploded ordnance and other military munitions concentrated in underwater environments. Decision making involving underwater munitions is inherently complex due to the high degree of uncertainty in the environmental conditions that force munitions responses (burial, decay, migration, etc.) and associated risks to the public. The prototype framework provides a consistent approach to accurately delineating contaminated areas at underwater munitions sites through the estimation of most probable concentrations. We adapted existing deterministic models and environmental data services for use within statistical modules that allowed the estimation of munition concentration given historic site information and environmental attributes. Ultimately this risk surface can be used to evaluate costs associated with various remediation approaches (e.g. removal, monitoring, etc.). Unfortunately, evaluation of the assessment framework was limited due to the lack of enduser data services from munition site managers. Of the 450 U.S. sites identified as having potential contamination with underwater munitions, assessment of available munitions information (including historic firing or disposal records, and recent ground-truth munitions samples) indicated very limited information in the databases. Example data types include the most probable munition types, approximate firing / disposal dates and locations, and any supportive munition survey or sampling results. However the overall technical goal to integrate trained statistical belief networks with detailed geophysical knowledge of sites, of sensors and of the underwater environment was demonstrated and should allow probabilistic estimates of the most likely outcomes and tradeoffs while managing uncertainty associated with military munitions response.

  12. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  13. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment: Problem Formulation

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Before the ecological risk assessment is conducted, risk assessors and risk managers engage in a planning dialogue to ensure that the risk assessment will enable the risk managers to make informed environmental decisions.

  14. Accurate Determination of Tunneling-Affected Rate Coefficients: Theory Assessing Experiment.

    PubMed

    Zuo, Junxiang; Xie, Changjian; Guo, Hua; Xie, Daiqian

    2017-07-20

    The thermal rate coefficients of a prototypical bimolecular reaction are determined on an accurate ab initio potential energy surface (PES) using ring polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD). It is shown that quantum effects such as tunneling and zero-point energy (ZPE) are of critical importance for the HCl + OH reaction at low temperatures, while the heavier deuterium substitution renders tunneling less facile in the DCl + OH reaction. The calculated RPMD rate coefficients are in excellent agreement with experimental data for the HCl + OH reaction in the entire temperature range of 200-1000 K, confirming the accuracy of the PES. On the other hand, the RPMD rate coefficients for the DCl + OH reaction agree with some, but not all, experimental values. The self-consistency of the theoretical results thus allows a quality assessment of the experimental data.

  15. Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

    PubMed Central

    Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

    2016-01-01

    Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

  16. Waterlogging risk assessment based on self-organizing map (SOM) artificial neural networks: A case study of an urban storm in Beijing

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lai, Wen-li; Wang, Hong-rui; Wang, Cheng

    Due to rapid urbanization, waterlogging induced by torrential rainfall has become a global concern and a potential risk affecting urban habitant's safety. Widespread waterlogging disasters have occurred almost annually in the urban area of Beijing, the capital of China. Based on a self-organizing map (SOM) artificial neural network (ANN), a graded waterlogging risk assessment was conducted on 56 low-lying points in Beijing, China. Social risk factors, such as Gross domestic product (GDP), population density, and traffic congestion, were utilized as input datasets in this study. The results indicate that SOM-ANN is suitable for automatically and quantitatively assessing risks associated withmore » waterlogging. The greatest advantage of SOM-ANN in the assessment of waterlogging risk is that a priori knowledge about classification categories and assessment indicator weights is not needed. As a result, SOM-ANN can effectively overcome interference from subjective factors, producing classification results that are more objective and accurate. In this paper, the risk level of waterlogging in Beijing was divided into five grades. As a result, the points that were assigned risk grades of IV or V were located mainly in the districts of Chaoyang, Haidian, Xicheng, and Dongcheng.« less

  17. Waterlogging risk assessment based on self-organizing map (SOM) artificial neural networks: A case study of an urban storm in Beijing

    DOE PAGES

    Lai, Wen-li; Wang, Hong-rui; Wang, Cheng; ...

    2017-05-05

    Due to rapid urbanization, waterlogging induced by torrential rainfall has become a global concern and a potential risk affecting urban habitant's safety. Widespread waterlogging disasters have occurred almost annually in the urban area of Beijing, the capital of China. Based on a self-organizing map (SOM) artificial neural network (ANN), a graded waterlogging risk assessment was conducted on 56 low-lying points in Beijing, China. Social risk factors, such as Gross domestic product (GDP), population density, and traffic congestion, were utilized as input datasets in this study. The results indicate that SOM-ANN is suitable for automatically and quantitatively assessing risks associated withmore » waterlogging. The greatest advantage of SOM-ANN in the assessment of waterlogging risk is that a priori knowledge about classification categories and assessment indicator weights is not needed. As a result, SOM-ANN can effectively overcome interference from subjective factors, producing classification results that are more objective and accurate. In this paper, the risk level of waterlogging in Beijing was divided into five grades. As a result, the points that were assigned risk grades of IV or V were located mainly in the districts of Chaoyang, Haidian, Xicheng, and Dongcheng.« less

  18. Risk assessing study for Bio-CCS technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, A.; Sakamoto, Y.; Kano, Y.; Higashino, H.; Suzumura, M.; Tosha, T.; Nakao, S.; Komai, T.

    2013-12-01

    We have started a new R&D project titled 'Energy resources creation by geo-microbes and CCS'. It is new concept of a technology which cultivate methanogenic geo-microbes in reservoirs of geological CCS conditions to produce methane gas effectively and safely. As one of feasibility studies, we are evaluating risks around its new Bio-CCS technology. Our consideration involves risk scenarios about Bio-CCS in geological strata, marine environment, surface facilities, ambient air and injection sites. To cover risk scenarios in these areas, we are carrying out a sub-project with five sub-themes. Four sub-themes out of five are researches for identifying risk scenarios: A) Underground strata and injection well, B) Ambient air, C) Surface facilities and D) Seabed. We are developing risk assessment tool,named GERAS-CO2GS (Geo-environmental Risk Assessment System,CO2 Geological Storage Risk Assessment System. We are going to combine identified risk scenarios into GERAS-CO2GS accordingly. It is expected that new GERAS-CO2GS will contribute to risk assessment and management for not only Bio-CCS but also individual injection sites, and facilitate under standing of risks among legislators and concerned peoples around injection site.

  19. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  20. Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

  1. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  2. Somatic Mutation Allelic Ratio Test Using ddPCR (SMART-ddPCR): An Accurate Method for Assessment of Preferential Allelic Imbalance in Tumor DNA.

    PubMed

    de Smith, Adam J; Walsh, Kyle M; Hansen, Helen M; Endicott, Alyson A; Wiencke, John K; Metayer, Catherine; Wiemels, Joseph L

    2015-01-01

    The extent to which heritable genetic variants can affect tumor development has yet to be fully elucidated. Tumor selection of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) risk alleles, a phenomenon called preferential allelic imbalance (PAI), has been demonstrated in some cancer types. We developed a novel application of digital PCR termed Somatic Mutation Allelic Ratio Test using Droplet Digital PCR (SMART-ddPCR) for accurate assessment of tumor PAI, and have applied this method to test the hypothesis that heritable SNPs associated with childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) may demonstrate tumor PAI. These SNPs are located at CDKN2A (rs3731217) and IKZF1 (rs4132601), genes frequently lost in ALL, and at CEBPE (rs2239633), ARID5B (rs7089424), PIP4K2A (rs10764338), and GATA3 (rs3824662), genes located on chromosomes gained in high-hyperdiploid ALL. We established thresholds of AI using constitutional DNA from SNP heterozygotes, and subsequently measured allelic copy number in tumor DNA from 19-142 heterozygote samples per SNP locus. We did not find significant tumor PAI at these loci, though CDKN2A and IKZF1 SNPs showed a trend towards preferential selection of the risk allele (p = 0.17 and p = 0.23, respectively). Using a genomic copy number control ddPCR assay, we investigated somatic copy number alterations (SCNA) underlying AI at CDKN2A and IKZF1, revealing a complex range of alterations including homozygous and hemizygous deletions and copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity, with varying degrees of clonality. Copy number estimates from ddPCR showed high agreement with those from multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) assays. We demonstrate that SMART-ddPCR is a highly accurate method for investigation of tumor PAI and for assessment of the somatic alterations underlying AI. Furthermore, analysis of publicly available data from The Cancer Genome Atlas identified 16 recurrent SCNA loci that contain heritable cancer risk SNPs associated with a

  3. NEUROTOXICOLOGY IN REGULATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper is to be published in the proceedings of a conference on learning disabilities. It summarizes the need for neurotoxicology data in risk assessment, the regulatory agencies which have authority to require toxicity testing, the overall process of risk assessment and the p...

  4. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  5. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  6. Appraising the risk matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool.

    PubMed

    Tully, Ruth J; Browne, Kevin D

    2015-02-01

    This critical appraisal explores the reliability and validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool that is widely used in the United Kingdom. The Risk Matrix 2000 has to some extent been empirically validated for use with adult male sex offenders; however, this review highlights that further research into the validity of this static tool with sex offender subgroups or types is necessary in order to improve practical utility. The Risk Matrix 2000 relies on static risk predictors, thus it is limited in scope. This article argues that the addition of dynamic items that have been shown to be predictive of sexual recidivism would further enhance the tool. The paper argues that adding dynamic risk items would fit better with a rehabilitative approach to sex offender risk management and assessment. This would also provide a means by which to effectively plan sex offender treatment and evaluate individual offenders' progress in treatment; however, difficulties remain in identifying and assessing dynamic risk factors of sexual offending and so further research is required. © The Author(s) 2013.

  7. Developing a pressure ulcer risk factor minimum data set and risk assessment framework.

    PubMed

    Coleman, Susanne; Nelson, E Andrea; Keen, Justin; Wilson, Lyn; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Dealey, Carol; Stubbs, Nikki; Muir, Delia; Farrin, Amanda; Dowding, Dawn; Schols, Jos M G A; Cuddigan, Janet; Berlowitz, Dan; Jude, Edward; Vowden, Peter; Bader, Dan L; Gefen, Amit; Oomens, Cees W J; Schoonhoven, Lisette; Nixon, Jane

    2014-10-01

    To agree a draft pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set to underpin the development of a new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Framework. A recent systematic review identified the need for a pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set and development and validation of an evidenced-based pressure ulcer Risk Assessment Framework. This was undertaken through the Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056), funded by the National Institute for Health Research and incorporates five phases. This article reports phase two, a consensus study. Consensus study. A modified nominal group technique based on the Research and Development/University of California at Los Angeles appropriateness method. This incorporated an expert group, review of the evidence and the views of a Patient and Public Involvement service user group. Data were collected December 2010-December 2011. The risk factors and assessment items of the Minimum Data Set (including immobility, pressure ulcer and skin status, perfusion, diabetes, skin moisture, sensory perception and nutrition) were agreed. In addition, a draft Risk Assessment Framework incorporating all Minimum Data Set items was developed, comprising a two stage assessment process (screening and detailed full assessment) and decision pathways. The draft Risk Assessment Framework will undergo further design and pre-testing with clinical nurses to assess and improve its usability. It will then be evaluated in clinical practice to assess its validity and reliability. The Minimum Data Set could be used in future for large scale risk factor studies informing refinement of the Risk Assessment Framework. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. A novel risk assessment method for landfill slope failure: Case study application for Bhalswa Dumpsite, India.

    PubMed

    Jahanfar, Ali; Amirmojahedi, Mohsen; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Dubey, Brajesh; McBean, Edward; Kumar, Dinesh

    2017-03-01

    Rapid population growth of major urban centres in many developing countries has created massive landfills with extraordinary heights and steep side-slopes, which are frequently surrounded by illegal low-income residential settlements developed too close to landfills. These extraordinary landfills are facing high risks of catastrophic failure with potentially large numbers of fatalities. This study presents a novel method for risk assessment of landfill slope failure, using probabilistic analysis of potential failure scenarios and associated fatalities. The conceptual framework of the method includes selecting appropriate statistical distributions for the municipal solid waste (MSW) material shear strength and rheological properties for potential failure scenario analysis. The MSW material properties for a given scenario is then used to analyse the probability of slope failure and the resulting run-out length to calculate the potential risk of fatalities. In comparison with existing methods, which are solely based on the probability of slope failure, this method provides a more accurate estimate of the risk of fatalities associated with a given landfill slope failure. The application of the new risk assessment method is demonstrated with a case study for a landfill located within a heavily populated area of New Delhi, India.

  9. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  10. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

  11. Home Circadian Phase Assessments with Measures of Compliance Yield Accurate Dim Light Melatonin Onsets.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Helen J; Wyatt, James K; Park, Margaret; Fogg, Louis F

    2015-06-01

    There is a need for the accurate assessment of circadian phase outside of the clinic/laboratory, particularly with the gold standard dim light melatonin onset (DLMO). We tested a novel kit designed to assist in saliva sampling at home for later determination of the DLMO. The home kit includes objective measures of compliance to the requirements for dim light and half-hourly saliva sampling. Participants were randomized to one of two 10-day protocols. Each protocol consisted of two back-to-back home and laboratory phase assessments in counterbalanced order, separated by a 5-day break. Laboratory or participants' homes. Thirty-five healthy adults, age 21-62 y. N/A. Most participants received at least one 30-sec epoch of light > 50 lux during the home phase assessments (average light intensity 4.5 lux), but on average for < 9 min of the required 8.5 h. Most participants collected every saliva sample within 5 min of the scheduled time. Ninety-two percent of home DLMOs were not affected by light > 50 lux or sampling errors. There was no significant difference between the home and laboratory DLMOs (P > 0.05); on average the home DLMOs occurred 9.6 min before the laboratory DLMOs. The home DLMOs were highly correlated with the laboratory DLMOs (r = 0.91, P < 0.001). Participants were reasonably compliant to the home phase assessment procedures. The good agreement between the home and laboratory dim light melatonin onsets (DLMOs) demonstrates that including objective measures of light exposure and sample timing during home saliva sampling can lead to accurate home DLMOs. Circadian Phase Assessments at Home, http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01487252, NCT01487252. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  12. NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sources. This national-scale effort will be initiated for the base year 1996 and repeated every three years thereafter to track trends and inform program development. Provide broad-scale understanding of inhalation risks for a subset of atmospherically-emitted air toxics to inform further data-gathering efforts and priority-setting for the EPA's Air Toxics Programs.

  13. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  14. Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

    PubMed

    Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

    2009-04-01

    There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

  15. Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

    PubMed

    Turturro, A; Hart, R W

    1987-01-01

    A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

  16. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    PubMed

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  18. Hydraulic risk assessment of bridges using UAV photogrammetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hackl, Jürgen; Adey, Bryan T.; Woźniak, Michał; Schümperlin, Oliver

    2017-04-01

    investigated includes: the use of geo-referenced images, taken by an UAV, the exportation of these images into a photogrammetric software, the creation of a 3D mesh of the terrain from these images, the conversion of the 3D mesh to a computational mesh, the use of the computational mesh to build a hydrodynamic model, and the use of the hydrodynamic model to run flow simulations. The process was used to estimate the complex water flow near a single span concrete bridge in the Canton of Grisons, Switzerland. The hydraulic events (abutment scour and overflow) predicted by the developed model were compared with with historical observations from a recent flood event in the region. The hydraulic events predicted by the developed model correspond with historical observations, indicating that the topological information collected in this way is sufficiently accurate to be used to simulate complex flow situations, which can be used in bridge risk assessments. Hackl, J., Adey, B.T., Heitzler, M., and Iosifescu Enescu, I. (2015). "An Overarching Risk Assessment Process to Evaluate the Risks Associated with Infrastructure Networks due to Natural Hazards." International Journal of Performability Engineering, 11(2), 153-168. Adey, B.T., Hackl, J., Lam, J.C., van Gelder, P., Prak, P., van Erp, N., Heitzler, M., Iosifescu Enescu, I., and Hurni, L. (2016). "Ensuring acceptable levels of infrastructure related risks due to natural hazards with emphasis on conducting stress tests." 1st International Symposium on Infrastructure Asset Management (SIAM2016), K. Kobayashi, ed., Kyoto, Japan, 19-29 (Jan).

  19. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  20. Accuracy of actuarial procedures for assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk may vary across ethnicity.

    PubMed

    Långström, Niklas

    2004-04-01

    Little is known about whether the accuracy of tools for assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk holds across ethnic minority offenders. I investigated the predictive validity across ethnicity for the RRASOR and the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment procedures in a national cohort of all adult male sex offenders released from prison in Sweden 1993-1997. Subjects ordered out of Sweden upon release from prison were excluded and remaining subjects (N = 1303) divided into three subgroups based on citizenship. Eighty-three percent of the subjects were of Nordic ethnicity, and non-Nordic citizens were either of non-Nordic European (n = 49, hereafter called European) or African Asian descent (n = 128). The two tools were equally accurate among Nordic and European sexual offenders for the prediction of any sexual and any violent nonsexual recidivism. In contrast, neither measure could differentiate African Asian sexual or violent recidivists from nonrecidivists. Compared to European offenders, AfricanAsian offenders had more often sexually victimized a nonrelative or stranger, had higher Static-99 scores, were younger, more often single, and more often homeless. The results require replication, but suggest that the promising predictive validity seen with some risk assessment tools may not generalize across offender ethnicity or migration status. More speculatively, different risk factors or causal chains might be involved in the development or persistence of offending among minority or immigrant sexual abusers.

  1. REGIONAL SCALE COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to regional-scale ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for th...

  2. Identifying, Assessing, and Mitigating Risk of Single-Point Inspections on the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhalgh, Phillip O.

    2004-01-01

    In the production of each Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), over 100,000 inspections are performed. ATK Thiokol Inc. reviewed these inspections to ensure a robust inspection system is maintained. The principal effort within this endeavor was the systematic identification and evaluation of inspections considered to be single-point. Single-point inspections are those accomplished on components, materials, and tooling by only one person, involving no other check. The purpose was to more accurately characterize risk and ultimately address and/or mitigate risk associated with single-point inspections. After the initial review of all inspections and identification/assessment of single-point inspections, review teams applied risk prioritization methodology similar to that used in a Process Failure Modes Effects Analysis to derive a Risk Prioritization Number for each single-point inspection. After the prioritization of risk, all single-point inspection points determined to have significant risk were provided either with risk-mitigating actions or rationale for acceptance. This effort gave confidence to the RSRM program that the correct inspections are being accomplished, that there is appropriate justification for those that remain as single-point inspections, and that risk mitigation was applied to further reduce risk of higher risk single-point inspections. This paper examines the process, results, and lessons learned in identifying, assessing, and mitigating risk associated with single-point inspections accomplished in the production of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

  3. Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental RiskAssessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con

  4. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  5. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  6. Violence risk assessment as a medical intervention: ethical tensions

    PubMed Central

    Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503

  7. Are general surgeons able to accurately self-assess their level of technical skills?

    PubMed

    Rizan, C; Ansell, J; Tilston, T W; Warren, N; Torkington, J

    2015-11-01

    Self-assessment is a way of improving technical capabilities without the need for trainer feedback. It can identify areas for improvement and promote professional medical development. The aim of this review was to identify whether self-assessment is an accurate form of technical skills appraisal in general surgery. The PubMed, MEDLINE(®), Embase(™) and Cochrane databases were searched for studies assessing the reliability of self-assessment of technical skills in general surgery. For each study, we recorded the skills assessed and the evaluation methods used. Common endpoints between studies were compared to provide recommendations based on the levels of evidence. Twelve studies met the inclusion criteria from 22,292 initial papers. There was no level 1 evidence published. All papers compared the correlation between self-appraisal versus an expert score but differed in the technical skills assessment and the evaluation tools used. The accuracy of self-assessment improved with increasing experience (level 2 recommendation), age (level 3 recommendation) and the use of video playback (level 3 recommendation). Accuracy was reduced by stressful learning environments (level 2 recommendation), lack of familiarity with assessment tools (level 3 recommendation) and in advanced surgical procedures (level 3 recommendation). Evidence exists to support the reliability of self-assessment of technical skills in general surgery. Several variables have been shown to affect the accuracy of self-assessment of technical skills. Future work should focus on evaluating the reliability of self-assessment during live operating procedures.

  8. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  9. Tenax extraction as a simple approach to improve environmental risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Harwood, Amanda D; Nutile, Samuel A; Landrum, Peter F; Lydy, Michael J

    2015-07-01

    It is well documented that using exhaustive chemical extractions is not an effective means of assessing exposure of hydrophobic organic compounds in sediments and that bioavailability-based techniques are an improvement over traditional methods. One technique that has shown special promise as a method for assessing the bioavailability of hydrophobic organic compounds in sediment is the use of Tenax-extractable concentrations. A 6-h or 24-h single-point Tenax-extractable concentration correlates to both bioaccumulation and toxicity. This method has demonstrated effectiveness for several hydrophobic organic compounds in various organisms under both field and laboratory conditions. In addition, a Tenax bioaccumulation model was developed for multiple compounds relating 24-h Tenax-extractable concentrations to oligochaete tissue concentrations exposed in both the laboratory and field. This model has demonstrated predictive capacity for additional compounds and species. Use of Tenax-extractable concentrations to estimate exposure is rapid, simple, straightforward, and relatively inexpensive, as well as accurate. Therefore, this method would be an invaluable tool if implemented in risk assessments. © 2015 SETAC.

  10. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    PubMed

    Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

    2015-09-01

    National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the 'high risk' patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2-3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4-5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the 'high-risk' patient.

  11. Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

    2010-01-01

    NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

  12. Landscape ecological risk assessment study in arid land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Lu; Amut, Aniwaer; Shi, Qingdong; Wang, Gary Z.

    2007-09-01

    The ecosystem risk assessment is an essential decision making system for predicting the reconstruction and recovery of a damaged ecosystem after intensive mankind activities. The sustainability of environment and resources of the lake ecosystem in arid districts have been paid close attention to by international communities as well as numerous experts and scholars. The ecological risk assessment offered a scientific foundation for making the decision and execution of ecological risk management. Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, is the main water source of the industrial and agricultural production as well as the local residence in Yanqi basin, Kuara city and Yuri County in the southern Xinjiang. Bosten Lake also provides a direct water source for emergency transportation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River. However, with the intensive utilizations of water and soil resources, the environmental condition in the Bosten Lake has become more and more serious. In this study, the theory and method of landscape ecological risk assessment has been practiced using 3S technologies combined with the frontier theory of landscape ecology. Defining the mainly risk resource including flood, drought, water pollution and rich nutrition of water has been evaluated based on the ecosystem risk assessment system. The main process includes five stages: regional natural resources analysis, risk receptor selection, risk sources evaluation, exposure and hazard analysis, and integrated risk assessment. Based on the risk assessment results, the environmental risk management countermeasure has been determined.

  13. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  14. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  15. New ventures require accurate risk analyses and adjustments.

    PubMed

    Eastaugh, S R

    2000-01-01

    For new business ventures to succeed, healthcare executives need to conduct robust risk analyses and develop new approaches to balance risk and return. Risk analysis involves examination of objective risks and harder-to-quantify subjective risks. Mathematical principles applied to investment portfolios also can be applied to a portfolio of departments or strategic business units within an organization. The ideal business investment would have a high expected return and a low standard deviation. Nonetheless, both conservative and speculative strategies should be considered in determining an organization's optimal service line and helping the organization manage risk.

  16. The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

    PubMed

    Jaykus, L A

    1996-01-01

    Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data

  17. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

  18. School Suicide Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brock, Stephen E.; Louvar Reeves, Melissa A.

    2018-01-01

    Suicide is a leading cause of death among youth ages 10 years and older. Further, recent federal surveillance data suggest the rates of suicidal ideation and behaviors to be increasing. With these facts in mind, in this paper, we examine the school psychologist's role in suicide risk assessment; which assesses the degree to which students, who…

  19. Is health risk assessment unethical

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Johnson, B.L.

    For persons who have followed the environmental movement in the US and in other countries, it comes as no revelation that the general public has been, and remains, quite concerned about environmental hazards. This concern has in turn led to national and local legislation that is intended to protect the environment and public health. In a parallel way, transnational public concerns have fostered international agreements on controlling such environmental hazards as shipments of hazardous wastes and ocean pollution. Over time, as governments have attempted to come to grips with controlling various environmental hazards, the development and use of health riskmore » assessment has become a well-favored practice by government and some private sector agencies. Because health risk assessment is used to ultimately manage environmental hazards that impact the well-being of people, it seems timely to raise the questions of to what extent are ethical considerations incorporated into health risk assessments and risk management actions.« less

  20. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  1. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  2. Risk stratification following acute myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Singh, Mandeep

    2007-07-01

    This article reviews the current risk assessment models available for patients presenting with myocardial infarction (MI). These practical tools enhance the health care provider's ability to rapidly and accurately assess patient risk from the event or revascularization therapy, and are of paramount importance in managing patients presenting with MI. This article highlights the models used for ST-elevation MI (STEMI) and non-ST elevation MI (NSTEMI) and provides an additional description of models used to assess risks after primary angioplasty (ie, angioplasty performed for STEMI).

  3. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  4. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for threemore » water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.« less

  5. Improvements to the Ionizing Radiation Risk Assessment Program for NASA Astronauts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Semones, E. J.; Bahadori, A. A.; Picco, C. E.; Shavers, M. R.; Flores-McLaughlin, J.

    2011-01-01

    To perform dosimetry and risk assessment, NASA collects astronaut ionizing radiation exposure data from space flight, medical imaging and therapy, aviation training activities and prior occupational exposure histories. Career risk of exposure induced death (REID) from radiation is limited to 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The Radiation Health Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is implementing a program to integrate the gathering, storage, analysis and reporting of astronaut ionizing radiation dose and risk data and records. This work has several motivations, including more efficient analyses and greater flexibility in testing and adopting new methods for evaluating risks. The foundation for these improvements is a set of software tools called the Astronaut Radiation Exposure Analysis System (AREAS). AREAS is a series of MATLAB(Registered TradeMark)-based dose and risk analysis modules that interface with an enterprise level SQL Server database by means of a secure web service. It communicates with other JSC medical and space weather databases to maintain data integrity and consistency across systems. AREAS is part of a larger NASA Space Medicine effort, the Mission Medical Integration Strategy, with the goal of collecting accurate, high-quality and detailed astronaut health data, and then securely, timely and reliably presenting it to medical support personnel. The modular approach to the AREAS design accommodates past, current, and future sources of data from active and passive detectors, space radiation transport algorithms, computational phantoms and cancer risk models. Revisions of the cancer risk model, new radiation detection equipment and improved anthropomorphic computational phantoms can be incorporated. Notable hardware updates include the Radiation Environment Monitor (which uses Medipix technology to report real-time, on-board dosimetry measurements), an updated Tissue-Equivalent Proportional Counter, and the Southwest Research Institute

  6. OVERVIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT FOR TOXIC AND PATHOGENIC AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is a process that defines the adverse health consequences of exposure to toxic or pathogenic agents. hen used in regulatory decision making, risk assessment is an important component of risk management, which "combines the risk assessment with the directives of re...

  7. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study-Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions.

    PubMed

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E; Ankley, Gerald T; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y; Burgoon, Lyle D; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B; Edwards, Stephen W; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T; Thayer, Kristina A; Thomas, Russell S; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R; Vandenberg, John J; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S

    2016-11-01

    The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure-response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K

  8. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    PubMed Central

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

  9. OPPT workplan risk assessment for antimony trioxide (CASRN ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This assessment will focus on the ecological hazards that may be associated with ATO use in flame retardants. Because ATO’s use in PET plastics was previously evaluated and determined to present minimal concerns for human health and the environment (EU, 2008), this use scenario will not be evaluated here. Human health risks have been evaluated previously and will be summarized in this assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  10. Detailed behavioral assessment promotes accurate diagnosis in patients with disorders of consciousness

    PubMed Central

    Gilutz, Yael; Lazary, Avraham; Karpin, Hana; Vatine, Jean-Jacques; Misha, Tamar; Fortinsky, Hadassah; Sharon, Haggai

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Assessing the awareness level in patients with disorders of consciousness (DOC) is made on the basis of exhibited behaviors. However, since motor signs of awareness (i.e., non-reflex motor responses) can be very subtle, differentiating the vegetative from minimally conscious states (which is in itself not clear-cut) is often challenging. Even the careful clinician relying on standardized scales may arrive at a wrong diagnosis. Aim: To report our experience in tackling this problem by using two in-house use assessment procedures developed at Reuth Rehabilitation Hospital, and demonstrate their clinical significance by reviewing two cases. Methods: (1) Reuth DOC Response Assessment (RDOC-RA) –administered in addition to the standardized tools, and emphasizes the importance of assessing a wide range of motor responses. In our experience, in some patients the only evidence for awareness may be a private specific movement that is not assessed by standard assessment tools. (2) Reuth DOC Periodic Intervention Model (RDOC-PIM) – current literature regarding assessment and diagnosis in DOC refers mostly to the acute phase of up to 1 year post injury. However, we have found major changes in responsiveness occurring 1 year or more post-injury in many patients. Therefore, we conduct periodic assessments at predetermined times points to ensure patients are not misdiagnosed or neurological changes overlooked. Results: In the first case the RDOC-RA promoted a more accurate diagnosis than that based on standardized scales alone. The second case shows how the RDOC-PIM allowed us to recognize late recovery and promoted reinstatement of treatment with good results. Conclusion: Adding a detailed periodic assessment of DOC patients to existing scales can yield critical information, promoting better diagnosis, treatment, and clinical outcomes. We discuss the implications of this observation for the future development and validation of assessment tools in DOC patients

  11. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    PubMed

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  12. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  13. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    PubMed Central

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  14. Assessment of health risks of policies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk; Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen; Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidancemore » and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.« less

  15. [Assessment and control of health risk caused by the radiological accident at the TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant].

    PubMed

    Matsuda, Naoki; Morita, Naoko; Miura, Miwa

    2014-01-01

    The accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on March 11, 2011, released a large amount of radioactive materials resulting in the radioactive contamination of a wide area of eastern Japan. Residents of the Fukushima prefecture experienced various unavoidable damages and fear of radiation effects on their health. A reliable communication of accurate risk assessment for residents is required as a countermeasure aimed at the reconstruction of Fukushima. Here, the current status of individual dose estimation and the issues relating to the radiation risk perception are discussed.

  16. Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

    2003-10-01

    Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

  17. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  18. MobRISK: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shabou, Saif; Ruin, Isabelle; Lutoff, Céline; Debionne, Samuel; Anquetin, Sandrine; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Beaufils, Xavier

    2017-09-01

    Recent flash flood impact studies highlight that road networks are often disrupted due to adverse weather and flash flood events. Road users are thus particularly exposed to road flooding during their daily mobility. Previous exposure studies, however, do not take into consideration population mobility. Recent advances in transportation research provide an appropriate framework for simulating individual travel-activity patterns using an activity-based approach. These activity-based mobility models enable the prediction of the sequence of activities performed by individuals and locating them with a high spatial-temporal resolution. This paper describes the development of the MobRISK microsimulation system: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to extreme hydrometeorological events. MobRISK aims at providing an accurate spatiotemporal exposure assessment by integrating travel-activity behaviors and mobility adaptation with respect to weather disruptions. The model is applied in a flash-flood-prone area in southern France to assess motorists' exposure to the September 2002 flash flood event. The results show that risk of flooding mainly occurs in principal road links with considerable traffic load. However, a lag time between the timing of the road submersion and persons crossing these roads contributes to reducing the potential vehicle-related fatal accidents. It is also found that sociodemographic variables have a significant effect on individual exposure. Thus, the proposed model demonstrates the benefits of considering spatiotemporal dynamics of population exposure to flash floods and presents an important improvement in exposure assessment methods. Such improved characterization of road user exposures can present valuable information for flood risk management services.

  19. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    PubMed Central

    Wolt, Jeffrey D

    2009-01-01

    Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization. PMID:19883509

  20. Ecological risk assessment conceptual model formulation for nonindigenous species.

    PubMed

    Landis, Wayne G

    2004-08-01

    This article addresses the application of ecological risk assessment at the regional scale to the prediction of impacts due to invasive or nonindigenous species (NIS). The first section describes risk assessment, the decision-making process, and introduces regional risk assessment. A general conceptual model for the risk assessment of NIS is then presented based upon the regional risk assessment approach. Two diverse examples of the application of this approach are presented. The first example is based upon the dynamics of introduced plasmids into bacteria populations. The second example is the application risk assessment approach to the invasion of a coastal marine site of Cherry Point, Washington, USA by the European green crab. The lessons learned from the two examples demonstrate that assessment of the risks of invasion of NIS will have to incorporate not only the characteristics of the invasive species, but also the other stresses and impacts affecting the region of interest.

  1. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  2. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    PubMed

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  3. Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

    2016-10-01

    Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

  4. Evaluating robustness in rank-based risk assessments of freshwater ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mattson, K.M.; Angermeier, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Conservation planning aims to protect biodiversity by sustainng the natural physical, chemical, and biological processes within representative ecosystems. Often data to measure these components are inadequate or unavailable. The impact of human activities on ecosystem processes complicates integrity assessments and might alter ecosystem organization at multiple spatial scales. Freshwater conservation targets, such as populations and communities, are influenced by both intrinsic aquatic properties and the surrounding landscape, and locally collected data might not accurately reflect potential impacts. We suggest that changes in five major biotic drivers—energy sources, physical habitat, flow regime, water quality, and biotic interactions—might be used as surrogates to inform conservation planners of the ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. Threats to freshwater systems might be evaluated based on their impact to these drivers to provide an overview of potential risk to conservation targets. We developed a risk-based protocol, the Ecological Risk Index (ERI), to identify watersheds with least/most risk to conservation targets. Our protocol combines risk-based components, specifically the frequency and severity of human-induced stressors, with biotic drivers and mappable land- and water-use data to provide a summary of relative risk to watersheds. We illustrate application of our protocol with a case study of the upper Tennessee River basin, USA. Differences in risk patterns among the major drainages in the basin reflect dominant land uses, such as mining and agriculture. A principal components analysis showed that localized, moderately severe threats accounted for most of the threat composition differences among our watersheds. We also found that the relative importance of threats is sensitive to the spatial grain of the analysis. Our case study demonstrates that the ERI is useful for evaluating the frequency and severity of ecosystemwide risk, which

  5. GENOTOXICITY RISK ASSESSMENT: A PROPOSED CLASSIFICATION STRATEGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recent advances in genetic toxicity (mutagenicity) testing methods and in approaches to performing risk assessment are prompting a renewed effort to harmonize genotoxicity risk assessment across the world. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first published Guidelines fo...

  6. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  7. Risk assessment as standard work in design.

    PubMed

    Morrill, Patricia W

    2013-01-01

    This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

  8. Relevance of Crop Biology for Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops in Africa.

    PubMed

    Akinbo, Olalekan; Hancock, James F; Makinde, Diran

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge about the crop biology of economic crops in Africa is needed for regulators to accurately review dossiers and conduct comprehensive environmental risk assessments (ERAs). This information allows regulators to decide whether biotech crops present a risk to biodiversity, since crossing between domesticated crops and their wild relatives could affect the adaptations of the wild species. The criteria that should be used in the evaluation of African crops for ERA include growth habit, center of origin, center of genetic diversity, proximity of wild relatives, inter-fertility, mode of pollen dispersal, length of pollen viability, mating system, invasiveness, weediness, mode of propagation, mode of seed dispersal, and length of seed dormancy. In this paper, we discuss the crops being genetic engineered in Africa and describe the crop biology of those with native relatives.

  9. A quick inexpensive laboratory method in acute paracetamol poisoning could improve risk assessment, management and resource utilization

    PubMed Central

    Senarathna, S.M.D.K. Ganga; Ranganathan, Shalini S.; Buckley, Nick; Soysa, S.S.S.B.D. Preethi; Fernandopulle, B. M. Rohini

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: Acute paracetamol poisoning is an emerging problem in Sri Lanka. Management guidelines recommend ingested dose and serum paracetamol concentrations to assess the risk. Our aim was to determine the usefulness of the patient's history of an ingested dose of >150 mg/kg and paracetamol concentration obtained by a simple colorimetric method to assess risk in patients with acute paracetamol poisoning. Materials and Methods: Serum paracetamol concentrations were determined in 100 patients with a history of paracetamol overdose using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC); (reference method). The results were compared to those obtained with a colorimetric method. The utility of risk assessment by reported dose ingested and colorimetric analysis were compared. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the history of ingested dose was 0.578 and there was no dose cut-off providing useful risk categorization. Both analytical methods had less than 5% intra- and inter-batch variation and were accurate on spiked samples. The time from blood collection to result was six times faster and ten times cheaper for colorimetry (30 minutes, US$2) than for HPLC (180 minutes, US$20). The correlation coefficient between the paracetamol levels by the two methods was 0.85. The agreement on clinical risk categorization on the standard nomogram was also good (Kappa = 0.62, sensitivity 81%, specificity 89%). Conclusions: History of dose ingested alone greatly over-estimated the number of patients who need antidotes and it was a poor predictor of risk. Paracetamol concentrations by colorimetry are rapid and inexpensive. The use of these would greatly improve the assessment of risk and greatly reduce unnecessary expenditure on antidotes. PMID:23087506

  10. A quick inexpensive laboratory method in acute paracetamol poisoning could improve risk assessment, management and resource utilization.

    PubMed

    Senarathna, S M D K Ganga; Ranganathan, Shalini S; Buckley, Nick; Soysa, S S S B D Preethi; Fernandopulle, B M Rohini

    2012-01-01

    Acute paracetamol poisoning is an emerging problem in Sri Lanka. Management guidelines recommend ingested dose and serum paracetamol concentrations to assess the risk. Our aim was to determine the usefulness of the patient's history of an ingested dose of >150 mg/kg and paracetamol concentration obtained by a simple colorimetric method to assess risk in patients with acute paracetamol poisoning. Serum paracetamol concentrations were determined in 100 patients with a history of paracetamol overdose using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC); (reference method). The results were compared to those obtained with a colorimetric method. The utility of risk assessment by reported dose ingested and colorimetric analysis were compared. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the history of ingested dose was 0.578 and there was no dose cut-off providing useful risk categorization. Both analytical methods had less than 5% intra- and inter-batch variation and were accurate on spiked samples. The time from blood collection to result was six times faster and ten times cheaper for colorimetry (30 minutes, US$2) than for HPLC (180 minutes, US$20). The correlation coefficient between the paracetamol levels by the two methods was 0.85. The agreement on clinical risk categorization on the standard nomogram was also good (Kappa = 0.62, sensitivity 81%, specificity 89%). History of dose ingested alone greatly over-estimated the number of patients who need antidotes and it was a poor predictor of risk. Paracetamol concentrations by colorimetry are rapid and inexpensive. The use of these would greatly improve the assessment of risk and greatly reduce unnecessary expenditure on antidotes.

  11. Laser Scanning Systems and Techniques in Rockfall Source Identification and Risk Assessment: A Critical Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fanos, Ali Mutar; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2018-04-01

    Rockfall poses risk to people, their properties and to transportation ways in mountainous and hilly regions. This catastrophe shows various characteristics such as vast distribution, sudden occurrence, variable magnitude, strong fatalness and randomicity. Therefore, prediction of rockfall phenomenon both spatially and temporally is a challenging task. Digital Terrain model (DTM) is one of the most significant elements in rockfall source identification and risk assessment. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) is the most advanced effective technique to derive high-resolution and accurate DTM. This paper presents a critical overview of rockfall phenomenon (definition, triggering factors, motion modes and modeling) and LiDAR technique in terms of data pre-processing, DTM generation and the factors that can be obtained from this technique for rockfall source identification and risk assessment. It also reviews the existing methods that are utilized for the evaluation of the rockfall trajectories and their characteristics (frequency, velocity, bouncing height and kinetic energy), probability, susceptibility, hazard and risk. Detail consideration is given on quantitative methodologies in addition to the qualitative ones. Various methods are demonstrated with respect to their application scales (local and regional). Additionally, attention is given to the latest improvement, particularly including the consideration of the intensity of the phenomena and the magnitude of the events at chosen sites.

  12. Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson, R. Karl

    2005-01-01

    Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

  13. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  14. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  15. Comparison of Accuracy of Diabetes Risk Score and Components of the Metabolic Syndrome in Assessing Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in Inter99 Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Shafizadeh, Tracy B.; Moler, Edward J.; Kolberg, Janice A.; Nguyen, Uyen Thao; Hansen, Torben; Jorgensen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

    2011-01-01

    Background Given the increasing worldwide incidence of diabetes, methods to assess diabetes risk which would identify those at highest risk are needed. We compared two risk-stratification approaches for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and a previously developed diabetes risk score, PreDx® Diabetes Risk Score (DRS). DRS assesses 5 yr risk of incident T2DM based on the measurement of 7 biomarkers in fasting blood. Methodology/Principal Findings DRS was evaluated in baseline serum samples from 4,128 non-diabetic subjects in the Inter99 cohort (Danes aged 30–60) for whom diabetes outcomes at 5 years were known. Subjects were classified as having MetS based on the presence of at least 3 MetS risk factors in baseline clinical data. The sensitivity and false positive rate for predicting diabetes using MetS was compared to DRS. When the sensitivity was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly lower false positive rate. Similarly, when the false positive rate was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly higher specificity. In further analyses, subjects were classified by presence of 0–2, 3 or 4–5 risk factors with matching proportions of subjects distributed among three DRS groups. Comparison between the two risk stratification schemes, MetS risk factors and DRS, were evaluated using Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). Comparing risk stratification by DRS to MetS factors in the total population, the NRI was 0.146 (p = 0.008) demonstrating DRS provides significantly improved stratification. Additionally, the relative risk of T2DM differed by 15 fold between the low and high DRS risk groups, but only 8-fold between the low and high risk MetS groups. Conclusions/Significance DRS provides a more accurate assessment of risk for diabetes than MetS. This improved performance may allow clinicians to focus preventive strategies on those most in need of urgent intervention. PMID:21829540

  16. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  17. Clinical assessment is an accurate predictor of which patients will need septoplasty.

    PubMed

    Sedaghat, Ahmad R; Busaba, Nicolas Y; Cunningham, Michael J; Kieff, David A

    2013-01-01

    Septoplasty is a frequently performed surgical procedure with the most common indication being nasal airway obstruction. Almost universally, health insurance companies mandate a trial of medical therapy consisting of intranasal corticosteroids prior to performance of septoplasty regardless of clinical assessment. Evidence for this requirement is lacking. We sought to evaluate the initial clinical assessment as a predictor of response to this mandated trial of medical treatment. Retrospective review of prospectively collected data on 137 consecutive patients who presented with symptoms of nasal obstruction and a deviated nasal septum on physical examination. Patients were placed into one of three cohorts based on prediction of 1) failure of medical therapy with subsequent septoplasty, 2) success of medical therapy without subsequent septoplasty, or 3) unable to make a prediction. Patients from each cohort were assessed for subsequent response to medical therapy and ultimate need for septoplasty. Overall clinical assessment had a sensitivity of 86.9%, specificity of 91.8%, positive predictive value of 93.6%, and negative predictive value of 96.4% for detecting/predicting need for septoplasty. The accuracy of the overall clinical assessment is considerably better than severe deviation at any one septal anatomical site. Of patients whose response to medical therapy could not be predicted, 61.3% failed medical therapy and needed surgery; this is statistically equivalent to a 50/50 distribution between either needing septoplasty or not. Clinical assessment at initial presentation of patients with nasal obstruction and deviated septum is highly accurate in predicting which patients will need septoplasty. Copyright © 2012 The American Laryngological, Rhinological, and Otological Society, Inc.

  18. Caseworker assessments of risk for recurrent maltreatment: association with case-specific risk factors and re-reports.

    PubMed

    Dorsey, Shannon; Mustillo, Sarah A; Farmer, Elizabeth M Z; Elbogen, Eric

    2008-03-01

    This article focuses on caseworkers' assessments of risk of maltreatment recurrence among families in contact with social services. Specifically, the article has two primary goals: (1) to examine the association between caseworkers' risk assessments and demographic, child, parent and family-level risk factors; and (2) to examine agreement between caseworkers' risk assessments and any subsequent report, or reports, of maltreatment. Data are from the baseline, 12-month, and 18-month assessments of the National Survey for Child and Adolescent Well-Being (NSCAW), a nationally representative sample of youth and families who were the subjects of allegations of maltreatment investigated by child welfare agencies. The sample consisted of a subset of NSCAW participants: cases with a report of child physical abuse or neglect who were not placed in out-of-home care (N=2,139). Analyses indicated that parent-level risk factors and a prior report of maltreatment were most strongly associated with caseworkers' assessments of risk for both physical abuse and neglect cases. A smaller set of factors, which varied by the type of maltreatment, were associated with a subsequent report of maltreatment. Despite some overlap in correlates of risk assessment and subsequent reports, analyses indicated that agreement between caseworkers' assessments of risk and re-reports was low. Findings suggest that although caseworkers' assessments were associated with a limited set of risk factors from the literature, few of these factors also were associated with a recurrent report of maltreatment. Correspondence between caseworkers' assessments of risk and a subsequent report of maltreatment was low, suggesting that considerable work may be needed to improve accuracy and identification of cases most at risk. This study provides information to assist caseworkers, administrators, and policymakers in thinking critically about risk assessment policies and procedures. Although caseworkers' assessments of

  19. Inter-rater reliability of the German version of the Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk scale.

    PubMed

    Kozel, Bernd; Grieser, Manuela; Abderhalden, Christoph; Cutcliffe, John R

    2016-10-01

    In comparison to the general population, the suicide rates of psychiatric inpatient populations in Germany and Switzerland are very high. An important preventive contribution to the lowering of the suicide rates in mental health care is to ensure that the risk of suicide of psychiatric inpatients is assessed as accurately as possible. While risk-assessment instruments can serve an important function in determining such risk, very few have been translated to German. Therefore, in the present study, we reported on the German version of Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR) scale. After translating the original instrument into German and pretesting the German version, we tested the inter-rater reliability of the instrument. Twelve video case studies were evaluated by 13 raters with the NGASR scale in a 'laboratory' trial. In each case, the observer's agreement was calculated for the single items, the overall scale, the risk levels, and the sum scores. The statistical data analysis was conducted with kappa and AC1 statistics for dichotomous (items, scale) scales. A high-to-very high observers' agreement (AC1: 0.62-1.00, kappa: 0.00-1.00) was determined for 16 items of the German version of the NGASR scale. We conclude that the German version of the NGASR scale is a reliable instrument for evaluating risk factors for suicide. A reliable application in the clinical practise appears to be enhanced by training in the use of the instrument and the right implementation instructions. © 2016 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  20. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  1. There is more to risk and safety planning than dramatic risks: Mental health nurses' risk assessment and safety-management practice.

    PubMed

    Higgins, Agnes; Doyle, Louise; Downes, Carmel; Morrissey, Jean; Costello, Paul; Brennan, Michael; Nash, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Risk assessment and safety planning are considered a cornerstone of mental health practice, yet limited research exists into how mental health nurses conceptualize 'risk' and how they engage with risk assessment and safety planning. The aim of the present study was to explore mental health nurses' practices and confidence in risk assessment and safety planning. A self-completed survey was administered to 381 mental health nurses in Ireland. The findings indicate that nurses focus on risk to self and risk to others, with the risk of suicide, self-harm, substance abuse, and violence being most frequently assessed. Risk from others and 'iatrogenic' risk were less frequently considered. Overall, there was limited evidence of recovery-oriented practice in relation to risk. The results demonstrate a lack of meaningful engagement with respect to collaborative safety planning, the identification and inclusion of protective factors, and the inclusion of positive risk-taking opportunities. In addition, respondents report a lack of confidence working with positive risk taking and involving family/carers in the risk-assessment and safety-planning process. Gaps in knowledge about risk-assessment and safety-planning practice, which could be addressed through education, are identified, as are the implications of the findings for practice and research. © 2015 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  2. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  3. Ecological risk assessment of boreal sediments affected by metal mining: Metal geochemistry, seasonality, and comparison of several risk assessment methods.

    PubMed

    Väänänen, Kristiina; Kauppila, Tommi; Mäkinen, Jari; Leppänen, Matti T; Lyytikäinen, Merja; Akkanen, Jarkko

    2016-10-01

    The mining industry is a common source of environmental metal emissions, which cause long-lasting effects in aquatic ecosystems. Metal risk assessment is challenging due to variations in metal distribution, speciation, and bioavailability. Therefore, seasonal effects must be better understood, especially in boreal regions in which seasonal changes are large. We sampled 4 Finnish lakes and sediments affected by mining for metals and geochemical characteristics in autumn and late winter, to evaluate seasonal changes in metal behavior, the importance of seasonality in risk assessment, and the sensitivity and suitability of different risk assessment methods. We compared metal concentrations in sediment, overlying water, and porewater against environmental quality guidelines (EQGs). We also evaluated the toxicity of metal mixtures using simultaneously extracted metals and an acid volatile sulfides (SEM-AVS) approach together with water quality criteria (US Environmental Protection Agency equilibrium partitioning benchmarks). Finally, site-specific risks for 3 metals (Cu, Ni, Zn) were assessed using 2 biotic ligand models (BLMs). The metal concentrations in the impacted lakes were elevated. During winter stratification, the hypolimnetic O2 saturation levels were low (<6%) and the pH was acidic (3.5-6.5); however, abundant O2 (>89%) and neutral pH (6.1-7.5) were found after the autumnal water overturn. Guidelines were the most conservative benchmark for showing an increased risk of toxicity in the all of the lakes. The situation remained stable between seasons. On the other hand, SEM-AVS, equilibrium partition sediment benchmarks (ESBs), and BLMs provided a clearer distinction between lakes and revealed a seasonal variation in risk among some of the lakes, which evidenced a higher risk during late winter. If a sediment risk assessment is based on the situation in the autumn, the overall risk may be underestimated. It is advisable to carry out sampling and risk assessment

  4. An Etiological Approach to Sexual Offender Assessment: CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA).

    PubMed

    Craig, Leam A; Rettenberger, Martin

    2018-05-19

    Case formulations (CF) have been the cornerstone of effective practice in clinical psychology since the 1950s and now form one of the core competencies in clinical and forensic assessment. The use of CFs within forensic settings is becoming more relevant when working with offenders who have experienced significant trauma, suffered from personality disorder, and have displayed sexually abusive behavior. Furthermore, most North American and European jurisdictions insist that expert witnesses adopt an idiosyncratic approach to risk assessment and consider the characteristics of the individual as part of a wider formulation of the problem behavior. This article focuses specifically on CF incorporating risk assessment procedures of sexual offenders. While empirical support for the use of risk analysis and formulation in managing offending behavior generally, and sexual offending behavior in particular, is limited, there is mounting evidence to suggest that CF can improve understanding of an individual's problem sexual behaviors. We argue that by integrating risk formulations into the CF provides a conceptually robust link between the etiologically development of the problem sexual behavior and effective assessment and risk management of sexual offenders. As forensic treatment programs increasingly moved toward strength-based approaches, in keeping with the Risk-Need-Responsivity principles Andrews and Bonta (2004), and the Good Lives Model Ward and Stewart (Prof Psychol Res Pract 34:353-60, 2003) of offender rehabilitation, the use of CFs in the assessment, treatment, and management of sexual offenders is indispensable. We present an etiological framework for understanding risk in an individual sexual offender by integrating a case formulation model to include the use of (static, stable, and acute) actuarial and clinical risk assessment measures as well as protective risk factors, referred to as the CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA) model.

  5. Reliability and risk assessment of structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, C. C.

    1991-01-01

    Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

  6. Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

  7. Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: Assessment of risk to the Lockheed Model L-1011 commercial transport aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daniledes, J.; Koch, J. R.

    1980-01-01

    The risk associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers (CF) from fires on commercial transport aircraft incorporating composite materials was assessed. Data are developed to evaluate the potential for CF damage to electrical and electronic equipment, assess the cost risk, and evaluate the hazard to continued operation. The subjects covered include identification of susceptible equipments, determination of infiltration transfer functions, analysis of airport operations, calculation of probabilities of equipment failures, assessment of the cost risk, and evaluation of the hazard to continued operation. The results show the risks associated with CF contamination are negligible through 1993.

  8. Concurrent chart review provides more accurate documentation and increased calculated case mix index, severity of illness, and risk of mortality.

    PubMed

    Frazee, Richard C; Matejicka, Anthony V; Abernathy, Stephen W; Davis, Matthew; Isbell, Travis S; Regner, Justin L; Smith, Randall W; Jupiter, Daniel C; Papaconstantinou, Harry T

    2015-04-01

    Case mix index (CMI) is calculated to determine the relative value assigned to a Diagnosis-Related Group. Accurate documentation of patient complications and comorbidities and major complications and comorbidities changes CMI and can affect hospital reimbursement and future pay for performance metrics. Starting in 2010, a physician panel concurrently reviewed the documentation of the trauma/acute care surgeons. Clarifications of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services term-specific documentation were made by the panel, and the surgeon could incorporate or decline the clinical queries. A retrospective review of trauma/acute care inpatients was performed. The mean severity of illness, risk of mortality, and CMI from 2009 were compared with the 3 subsequent years. Mean length of stay and mean Injury Severity Score by year were listed as measures of patient acuity. Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA and t-test, with p < 0.05 for significance. Each year demonstrated an increase in severity of illness, risk of mortality, and CMI compared with baseline values (p < 0.05). Length of stay was not significantly different, reflecting similar patient populations throughout the study. Injury Severity Score decreased in 2011 and 2012 compared with 2009, reflecting a lower level of injury in the trauma population. A concurrent documentation review significantly increases severity of illness, risk of mortality, and CMI scores in a trauma/acute care service compared with pre-program levels. These changes reflect more accurate key word documentation rather than a change in patient acuity. The increased scores might impact hospital reimbursement and more accurately stratify outcomes measures for care providers. Copyright © 2015 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Historical perspective on risk assessment in the federal government.

    PubMed

    Graham, J D

    1995-09-01

    This article traces the evolution of risk assessment as an essential analytical tool in the federal government. In many programs and agencies, decisions cannot be made without the benefit of information from risk assessment. Although this analytical tool influences important public health and economic decisions, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the day-to-day practice of risk assessment. The article describes the sources of dissatisfaction that have been voiced by scientists, regulators, interest groups and ordinary citizens. Problems include the use of arbitrary exposure scenarios, the misuse of the 'carcinogen' label, the excessive reliance on animal cancer tests, the lack of formal uncertainty analysis the low priority assigned to noncancer endpoints, the poor communication of risk estimates and the neglect of inequities in the distribution of risk. Despite these limitations, the article argues that more danger rests in efforts to make decisions without any risk assessment. Recent Congressional and Administration interest in risk assessment is encouraging because it offers promise to learn from past mistakes and set in motion steps to enhance the risk assessment process.

  10. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management.more » It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.« less

  11. Addressing variability in the acoustic startle reflex for accurate gap detection assessment.

    PubMed

    Longenecker, Ryan J; Kristaponyte, Inga; Nelson, Gregg L; Young, Jesse W; Galazyuk, Alexander V

    2018-06-01

    The acoustic startle reflex (ASR) is subject to substantial variability. This inherent variability consequently shapes the conclusions drawn from gap-induced prepulse inhibition of the acoustic startle reflex (GPIAS) assessments. Recent studies have cast doubt as to the efficacy of this methodology as it pertains to tinnitus assessment, partially, due to variability in and between data sets. The goal of this study was to examine the variance associated with several common data collection variables and data analyses with the aim to improve GPIAS reliability. To study this the GPIAS tests were conducted in adult male and female CBA/CaJ mice. Factors such as inter-trial interval, circadian rhythm, sex differences, and sensory adaptation were each evaluated. We then examined various data analysis factors which influence GPIAS assessment. Gap-induced facilitation, data processing options, and assessments of tinnitus were studied. We found that the startle reflex is highly variable in CBA/CaJ mice, but this can be minimized by certain data collection factors. We also found that careful consideration of temporal fluctuations of the ASR and controlling for facilitation can lead to more accurate GPIAS results. This study provides a guide for reducing variance in the GPIAS methodology - thereby improving the diagnostic power of the test. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health Perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Axelrad, Daniel A.; Bahadori, Tina; Bussard, David; Cascio, Wayne E.; Deener, Kacee; Dix, David; Thomas, Russell S.; Kavlock, Robert J.; Burke, Thomas A.

    2017-01-01

    Preventing adverse health effects of environmental chemical exposure is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and effects of environmentally induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Considering these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. PMID:28520487

  13. How short should short-term risk assessment be? Determining the optimum interval for START reassessment in a secure mental health service.

    PubMed

    Dickens, G L; O'Shea, L E

    2015-08-01

    The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a tool used in some mental health services to assess patients to see if they are at risk of violence, self-harm, self-neglect or victimization. The recommended time between assessments is 3 months but there is currently no evidence to show that this is best practice. We have investigated whether assessing at 1- or 2-month intervals would be more accurate and therefore facilitate more individualized risk management interventions. We found that many patients who were rated as low risk had been involved in risk behaviours before 3 months had passed; some patients who were rated at increased risk did not get involved in risk behaviours at all. Results are mixed for different outcomes but on balance, we think that the recommendation to conduct START assessment every 3 months is supported by the evidence. However, reassessment should be considered if risk behaviours are not prevented and teams should always consider whether risk management practices are too restrictive. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) guides assessment of potential adverse outcomes. Assessment is recommended every 3 months but there is no evidence for this interval. We aimed to inform whether earlier reassessment was warranted. We collated START assessments for N = 217 adults in a secure mental health hospital, and subsequent aggressive, self-harm, self-neglect and victimization incidents. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to assess predictive validity; survival function analysis to examine differences between low-, medium-, and high-risk groups; and hazard function analysis to determine the optimum interval for reassessment. The START predicted aggression and self-harm at 1, 2 and 3 months. At-risk individuals engaged in adverse outcomes earlier than low-risk patients. About half warranted reassessment before 3 months due to engagement in risk behaviour before that point despite a low-risk rating

  14. A novel nomogram accurately quantifies the risk of mortality in elderly patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

    PubMed

    Kiran, Ravi P; Attaluri, Vikram; Hammel, Jeff; Church, James

    2013-05-01

    The ability to accurately predict postoperative mortality is expected to improve preoperative decisions for elderly patients considered for colorectal surgery. Patients undergoing colorectal surgery were identified from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005-2007) and stratified as elderly (>70 years) and nonelderly (<70 years). Univariate analysis of preoperative risk factors and 30-day mortality and morbidity were analyzed on 70% of the population. A nomogram for mortality was created and tested on the remaining 30%. Of 30,900 colorectal cases, 10,750 were elderly (>70 years). Mortality increased steadily with age (0.5% every 5 years) and at a faster rate (1.2% every 5 years) after 70 years, which defined "elderly" in this study. Elderly (mean age: 78.4 years) and nonelderly patients (52.8 years) had mortality of 7.6% versus 2.0% and a morbidity of 32.8% versus 25.7%, respectively. Elderly patients had greater preoperative comorbidities including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (10.5% vs 3.8%), diabetes (18.7% vs 11.1%), and renal insufficiency (1.7% vs 1.3%). A multivariate model for 30-day mortality and nomogram were created. Increasing age was associated with mortality [age >70 years: odds ratio (OR) = 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-2.4); >85 years: OR = 4.3 (95% CI: 3.3-5.5)]. The nomogram accurately predicted mortality, including very high-risk (>50% mortality) with a concordant index for this model of 0.89. Colorectal surgery in elderly patients is associated with significantly higher mortality. This novel nomogram that predicts postoperative mortality may facilitate preoperative treatment decisions.

  15. Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

    PubMed

    Horie, Seichi

    2010-09-01

    Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  16. Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was developed by the U.S. EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division, Duluth, MN to assist regulators in performing ecological risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the ECOTOXicology Database (ECOTOX; The self-absorption correction factors for 210Pb concentration in mining waste and influence on environmental radiation risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bonczyk, Michal; Michalik, Boguslaw; Chmielewska, Izabela

    2017-03-01

    The radioactive lead isotope 210 Pb occurs in waste originating from metal smelting and refining industry, gas and oil extraction and sometimes from underground coal mines, which are deposited in natural environment very often. Radiation risk assessment requires accurate knowledge about the concentration of 210 Pb in such materials. Laboratory measurements seem to be the only reliable method applicable in environmental 210 Pb monitoring. One of the methods is gamma-ray spectrometry, which is a very fast and cost-effective method to determine 210 Pb concentration. On the other hand, the self-attenuation of gamma ray from 210 Pb (46.5 keV) in a sample is significant as it does not depend only on sample density but also on sample chemical composition (sample matrix). This phenomenon is responsible for the under-estimation of the 210 Pb activity concentration level often when gamma spectrometry is applied with no regard to relevant corrections. Finally, the corresponding radiation risk can be also improperly evaluated. Sixty samples of coal mining solid tailings (sediments created from underground mining water) were analysed. Slightly modified and adapted to the existing laboratory condition, a transmission method has been applied for the accurate measurement of 210 Pb concentration . The observed concentrations of 210 Pb range between 42.2 ÷ 11,700 Bq·kg -1 of dry mass. Experimentally obtained correction factors related to a sample density and elemental composition range between 1.11 and 6.97. Neglecting this factor can cause a significant error or underestimations in radiological risk assessment. The obtained results have been used for environmental radiation risk assessment performed by use of the ERICA tool assuming exposure conditions typical for the final destination of such kind of waste.

  17. APPROACHES TO RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MULTIPLE CHEMICAL EXPOSURES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office (ECAO) in Cincinnati has developed health risk assessment methods for chronic exposure to single chemical from a single route of exposure. Risk assessments for carcinogens associated an exposure level with a particular incidence of...

  18. Therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient: augmenting clinical suicide risk assessment with structured instruments.

    PubMed

    Homaifar, Beeta; Matarazzo, Bridget; Wortzel, Hal S

    2013-09-01

    This column is the second in a series presenting a model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient. As discussed in the first part of the series, the model involves several elements including augmenting clinical risk assessment with structured instruments, stratifying risk in terms of both severity and temporality, and developing and documenting a safety plan. This column explores in more detail how to augment clinical risk assessment with structured instruments. Unstructured clinical interviews have the potential to miss important aspects of suicide risk assessment. By augmenting the free-form clinical interview with structured instruments that demonstrate reliability and validity, a more nuanced and multifaceted approach to suicide risk assessment is achieved. Incorporating structured instruments into practice also serves a medicolegal function, since these instruments may become a living part of the medical record, establishing baseline levels of suicidal thoughts and behaviors and facilitating future clinical determinations regarding safety needs. We describe several instruments used in a multidisciplinary suicide consultation service, each of which has demonstrated relevance to suicide risk assessment and screening, ease of administration, and strong psychometric properties. In addition, we emphasize the importance of viewing suicide risk assessment as an ongoing process rather than as a singular event. Finally, we discuss special considerations in the evolving practice of risk assessment.

  19. Probabalistic Risk Assessment of a Turbine Disk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, Jace A.; Thomas, Michael; Goswami, Tarun; Fecke, Ted

    Current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rotor design certification practices risk assessment using a probabilistic framework focused on only the life-limiting defect location of a component. This method generates conservative approximations of the operational risk. The first section of this article covers a discretization method, which allows for a transition from this relative risk to an absolute risk where the component is discretized into regions called zones. General guidelines were established for the zone-refinement process based on the stress gradient topology in order to reach risk convergence. The second section covers a risk assessment method for predicting the total fatigue life due to fatigue induced damage. The total fatigue life incorporates a dual mechanism approach including the crack initiation life and propagation life while simultaneously determining the associated initial flaw sizes. A microstructure-based model was employed to address uncertainties in material response and relate crack initiation life with crack size, while propagation life was characterized large crack growth laws. The two proposed methods were applied to a representative Inconel 718 turbine disk. The zone-based method reduces the conservative approaches, while showing effects of feature-based inspection on the risk assessment. In the fatigue damage assessment, the predicted initial crack distribution was found to be the most sensitive probabilistic parameter and can be used to establish an enhanced inspection planning.

  1. Descriptive Biomarkers for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-10-01

    0721 TITLE: Descriptive Biomarkers for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Kathleen F. Arcaro...Annual 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15 Sept 2008 - 14 Sept 2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Descriptive Biomarkers for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk 5a...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to determine if exfoliated epithelial cells present in breast milk can be used to assess

  2. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  3. [Evidence based risk assessment of coronary heart disease].

    PubMed

    Filzmaier, K

    2010-06-01

    Coronary heart disease (CHD) poses a special challenge for risk assessments. Various kinds of diagnostic or therapeutic procedures, concomitant diseases, risk factors and symptoms need to be connected logically in order to assess the risk of each individual applicant. "Reinsurance manuals" are available to risk assessors in life insurance for this purpose. Using these manuals, the risk assessor can calculate the risk loadings for applicants with specific pre-existing conditions, e.g., CHD. Various tasks thus fall to the reinsurer, which must be able to give grounds for the increased risk loadings, provide the manuals with a process-oriented structure and simultaneously support the primary insurer's business objectives via an intelligent risk assessment. Taking CHD as an example, the following article explains how these tasks can be solved with the aid of medical and mathematical approaches, and how the insurability of applicants with CHD can be extended via the re-evaluation of risks.

  4. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    PubMed Central

    Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

    2015-01-01

    Introduction National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the ‘high risk’ patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Methods Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien–Dindo classification. Results The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien–Dindo grade 2–3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4–5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Discussion Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. Conclusions In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the ‘high-risk’ patient. PMID:26468369

  5. Periodontal Management by Risk Assessment: A Pragmatic Approach.

    PubMed

    Mullins, Joanna M; Even, Joshua B; White, Joel M

    2016-06-01

    An evidence-based periodontal disease risk assessment and diagnosis system has been developed and combined with a clinical decision support and management program to improve treatment and measure patient outcomes. There is little agreement on a universally accepted periodontal risk assessment, periodontal diagnosis, and treatment management tool and their incorporation into dental practice to improve patient care. This article highlights the development and use of a practical periodontal management and risk assessment program that can be implemented in dental settings. The approach taken by Willamette Dental Group to develop a periodontal disease risk assessment, periodontal diagnosis, and treatment management tool is described using evidence-based best practices. With goals of standardized treatment interventions while maintaining personalized care and improved communication, this process is described to facilitate its incorporation into other dental settings. Current electronic health records can be leveraged to enhance patient-centered care through the use of risk assessments and standardized guidelines to more effectively assess, diagnose, and treat patients to improve outcomes. Dental hygienists, and other committed providers, with their emphasis on prevention of periodontal disease can be principal drivers in creation and implementation of periodontal risk assessments and personalized treatment planning. Willamette Dental Group believes that such evidence-based tools can advance dentistry to new diagnostic and treatment standards. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Improving value assessment of high-risk, high-reward biotechnology research: the role of 'thick tails'.

    PubMed

    Casault, Sébastien; Groen, Aard J; Linton, Jonathan D

    2014-03-25

    This paper presents work toward improving the efficacy of financial models that describe the unique nature of biotechnology firms. We show that using a 'thick tailed' power law distribution to describe the behavior of the value of biotechnology R&D used in a Real Options Pricing model is significantly more accurate than the traditionally used Gaussian approach. A study of 287 North-American biotechnology firms gives insights into common problems faced by investors, managers and other stakeholders when using traditional techniques to calculate the commercial value of R&D. This is important because specific quantitative tools to assess the value of high-risk, high-reward R&D do not currently exist. This often leads to an undervaluation of biotechnology R&D and R&D intensive biotechnology firms. For example, the widely used Net Present Value (NPV) method assumes a fixed risk ignoring management flexibility and the changing environment. However, Real Options Pricing models assume that commercial returns from R&D investments are described by a normal random walk. A normal random walk model eliminates the possibility of drastic changes to the marketplace resulting from the introduction of revolutionary products and/or services. It is possible to better understand and manage biotechnology research projects and portfolios using a model that more accurately considers large non-Gaussian price fluctuations with thick tails, which recognize the unusually large risks and opportunities associated with Biotechnology R&D. Our empirical data show that opportunity overcompensates for the downside risk making biotechnology R&D statistically more valuable than other Gaussian options investments, which may otherwise appear to offer a similar combination of risk and return. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Validation of the Choking Risk Assessment and Pneumonia Risk Assessment for adults with Intellectual and Developmental Disability (IDD).

    PubMed

    Sheppard, Justine Joan; Malandraki, Georgia A; Pifer, Paula; Cuff, Jill; Troche, Michelle; Hemsley, Bronwyn; Balandin, Susan; Mishra, Avinash; Hochman, Roberta

    2017-10-01

    Risk assessments are needed to identify adults with intellectual and developmental disability (IDD) at high risk of choking and pneumonia. To describe the development and validation of the Choking Risk Assessment (CRA) and the Pneumonia Risk Assessment (PRA) for adults with IDD. Test items were identified through literature review and focus groups. Five-year retrospective chart reviews identified a positive choking group (PCG), a negative choking group (NCG), a positive pneumonia group (PPG), and a negative pneumonia group (NPG). Participants were tested with the CRA and PRA by clinicians blind to these testing conditions. The CRA and PRA differentiated the PCG (n=93) from the NCG (n=526) and the PPG (n=63) from the NPG (n=209) with high specificity (0.91 and 0.92 respectively) and moderate to average sensitivity (0.53 and 0.62 respectively). Further analyses revealed associations between clinical diagnoses of dysphagia and choking (p=0.043), and pneumonia (p<0.001). The CRA and PRA are reliable, valid risk indicators for choking and pneumonia in adults with IDD. Precautions for mitigating choking and pneumonia risks can be applied selectively thus avoiding undue impacts on quality of life and unnecessary interventions for low risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  9. A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA released the final report entitled, A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental Exposures to Children, which examines the impact of potential exposures during developmental lifestages and subsequent lifestages, while emphasizing the iterative nature of the analysis phase with a multidisciplinary team. Major findings and conclusions: This report outlines the framework in which mode of action(s) (MOA) can be considered across life stages. The framework is based upon existing approaches adopted in the Framework on Cumulative Risk Assessment and identifies existing guidance, guidelines and policy papers that relate to children's health risk assessment. It emphasizes the importance of an iterative approach between hazard, dose response, and exposure analyses. In addition, it includes discussion of principles for weight of evidence consideration across life stages for the hazard characterization database.Key science/assessment issues:This framework addresses the questions of why and how an improved children's health risk assessment will strengthen the overall risk assessment process across the Agency. This approach improves the scientific explanation of children's risk and will add value by: 1) providing for a more complete evaluation of the potential for vulnerability at different life stages, including a focus on the underlying biological events and critical developmental periods for incorporating MOA considerations; 2) evaluating of the potential fo

  10. B-type Natriuretic Peptide and RISK-PCI Score in the Risk Assessment in Patients with STEMI Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    PubMed

    Asanin, Milika; Mrdovic, Igor; Savic, Lidija; Matic, Dragan; Krljanac, Gordana; Vukcevic, Vladan; Orlic, Dejan; Stankovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Stankovic, Sanja

    2016-01-01

    RISK-PCI score is a novel score for risk stratification of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the RISK-PCI score for early risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI. In 120 patients with STEMI treated by pPCI, BNP was measured on admission before pPCI. The primary end point was 30-day mortality. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the most powerful predictive factors of 30-day mortality were the plasma level of BNP ≥ 206.6 pg/mL with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 87.5% and the RISK-PCI score ≥ 5.25 with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 85.7%. Thirty-day mortality was 6.7%. After multivariate adjustment, admission BNP (≥ 206.6 pg/mL) (OR 2.952, 95% CI 1.072 - 8.133, p = 0.036) and the RISK-PCI score (≥ 5.25) (OR 2.284, 95% CI 1.140-4.578, p = 0.020) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. The area under the ROC curve using the RISK-PCI score and BNP to detect mortality was 0.828 (p = 0.002) and 0.903 (p < 0.001), respectively. Addition of BNP to RISK-PCI score increased the area under the ROC to 0.949 (p < 0.001), but this increase measured by the c-statistic was not significant (p = 0.107). Furthermore, the significant improvement in risk reclassification (p < 0.001) and the integrated discrimination index (p = 0.042) were observed with the addition of BNP to RISK-PCI score for 30-day mortality. BNP on admission and the RISK-PCI score were the independent predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with the STEMI treated by pPCI. BNP in combination with the RISK-PCI score showed the way to more accurate risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI.

  11. Differences between Teacher Reports on Universal Risk Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith-Millman, Marissa K.; Flaspohler, Paul D.; Maras, Melissa A.; Splett, Joni Williams; Warmbold, Kristy; Dinnen, Hannah; Luebbe, Aaron

    2017-01-01

    Some universal behavioural screening processes require classroom teachers to complete a risk assessment measure on each student in their class, leading to a possible, but unexplored, problem: risk assessment scores may be influenced by the teacher completing the measure. The current study investigated whether teacher-reported risk assessment…

  12. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  13. From Risk Assessment to Risk Management: Matching Interventions to Adolescent Offenders’ Strengths and Vulnerabilities

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Jay P.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Sellers, Brian G.; Hylton, Tatiana; Tirotti, Melissa; Van Dorn, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    Though considerable research has examined the validity of risk assessment tools in predicting adverse outcomes in justice-involved adolescents, the extent to which risk assessments are translated into risk management strategies and, importantly, the association between this link and adverse outcomes has gone largely unexamined. To address these shortcomings, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model was used to examine associations between identified strengths and vulnerabilities, interventions, and institutional outcomes for justice-involved youth. Data were collected from risk assessments completed using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) for 120 adolescent offenders (96 boys and 24 girls). Interventions and outcomes were extracted from institutional records. Mixed evidence of adherence to RNR principles was found. Accordant to the risk principle, adolescent offenders judged to have more strengths had more strength-based interventions in their service plans, though adolescent offenders with more vulnerabilities did not have more interventions targeting their vulnerabilities. With respect to the need and responsivity principles, vulnerabilities and strengths identified as particularly relevant to the individual youth's risk of adverse outcomes were addressed in the service plans about half and a quarter of the time, respectively. Greater adherence to the risk and need principles was found to predict significantly the likelihood of externalizing outcomes. Findings suggest some gaps between risk assessment and risk management and highlight the potential usefulness of strength-based approaches to intervention. PMID:25346561

  14. Preliminary assessment of the risk linked to furan ingestion by babies consuming only ready-to-eat food.

    PubMed

    Scholl, Georges; Humblet, Marie-France; Scippo, Marie-Louise; De Pauw, Edwin; Eppe, Gauthier; Saegerman, Claude

    2013-01-01

    The risk linked to furan ingestion has been assessed in previous papers for Belgian adults and children. The present paper focuses on infants consuming only ready-to-eat baby food. As there is no Belgian baby dietary database, the furan exposure assessment was carried out by using an Italian infant consumption database and Belgian contamination data. The estimated daily intake (EDI) was calculated according to a deterministic methodology. It involved 42 commercially available ready-to-eat baby food and 36 baby consumption records. The mean EDI was 1460 ng*(kg(bw)*day)⁻¹ which is 3.8 times higher than the 381 ng*(kg(bw)*day)⁻¹ reported for Belgian adults, and 3.5 times higher than the 419 ng*(kg(bw)*day)⁻¹ measured for Belgian children. To assess and characterise the risk for babies' exposure, the margin of exposure (MoE) was calculated. It highlighted that 74% of infants have a MoE < 1000, with a minimum of 140. However, these are only preliminary results as they were calculated from a very small dataset and the infant cytochrome P450 activity is significantly different compared with the adult's. Therefore, the risk linked to furan ingestion by babies should be assessed in a different manner. To this end, additional data regarding a baby diet as well as a better understanding of furan toxicity for babies are needed to characterise more accurately the risk for infants.

  15. Family history assessment for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk analysis - comparison of diagram- and questionnaire-based web interfaces.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Michael; Seo, Steven Bohwan; Holt, Alec; Regenbrecht, Holger

    2015-11-18

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a high incidence, especially in New Zealand. The reasons for this are unknown. While most cancers develop sporadically, a positive family history, determined by the number and age at diagnosis of affected first and second degree relatives with CRC is one of the major factors, which may increase an individual's lifetime risk. Before a patient can be enrolled in a surveillance program a detailed assessment and documentation of the family history is important but time consuming and often inaccurate. The documentation is usually paper-based. Our aim was therefore to develop and validate the usability and efficacy of a web-based family history assessment tool for CRC suitable for the general population. The tool was also to calculate the risk and make a recommendation for surveillance. Two versions of an electronic assessment tool, diagram-based and questionnaire-based, were developed with the risk analysis and recommendations for surveillance based on the New Zealand Guidelines Group recommendations. Accuracy of our tool was tested prior to the study by comparing risk calculations based on family history by experienced gastroenterologists with the electronic assessment. The general public, visiting a local science fair were asked to use and comment on the usability of the two interfaces. Ninety people assessed and commented on the two interfaces. Both interfaces were effective in assessing the risk to develop CRC through their familial history for CRC. However, the questionnaire-based interface performed with significantly better satisfaction (p = 0.001) than the diagram-based interface. There was no difference in efficacy though. We conclude that a web-based questionnaire tool can assist in the accurate documentation and analysis of the family history relevant to determine the individual risk of CRC based on local guidelines. The calculator is now implemented and assessable through the web-page of a local charity for colorectal cancer

  16. Cloud-Based Smart Health Monitoring System for Automatic Cardiovascular and Fall Risk Assessment in Hypertensive Patients.

    PubMed

    Melillo, P; Orrico, A; Scala, P; Crispino, F; Pecchia, L

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe the design and the preliminary validation of a platform developed to collect and automatically analyze biomedical signals for risk assessment of vascular events and falls in hypertensive patients. This m-health platform, based on cloud computing, was designed to be flexible, extensible, and transparent, and to provide proactive remote monitoring via data-mining functionalities. A retrospective study was conducted to train and test the platform. The developed system was able to predict a future vascular event within the next 12 months with an accuracy rate of 84 % and to identify fallers with an accuracy rate of 72 %. In an ongoing prospective trial, almost all the recruited patients accepted favorably the system with a limited rate of inadherences causing data losses (<20 %). The developed platform supported clinical decision by processing tele-monitored data and providing quick and accurate risk assessment of vascular events and falls.

  17. Aerosol exposure and risk assessment for green jobs involved in biomethanization.

    PubMed

    Traversi, Deborah; Gorrasi, Ilaria; Pignata, Cristina; Degan, Raffaella; Anedda, Elisa; Carletto, Giulia; Vercellino, Greta; Fornasero, Stefania; Bertino, Antonino; Filippi, Francesca; Gullo, Maria; Gilli, Giorgio

    2018-05-01

    Anaerobic digestion is a consolidated biotechnology able to produce renewable energy from biomasses. In the European countries, quick growth of biogas production from different organic matrices including wastes has been observed. In relation to the characteristics and quantity of the anaerobic digestion of feedstock, there are different technologies, advantages and criticisms. An accurate occupational risk assessment and development of management tools for green jobs involved in the anaerobic digestion plants are due. The aim of this work is to assess the aerosol exposure for such workers, focusing on the bioaerosol risk. Full scale plants for the treatment of organic municipal waste, waste water treatment sludge, agro zootechnical and food producing byproducts were involved for this purpose. The bioaerosol levels were monitored during activities through culturing and biomolecular methods; moreover, the sub-fractionated PM10 and carried endotoxins were measured in different plant areas. Global microbial contamination is higher (>5000 UFC/m 3 ) in the area where organic wastes are handled and pretreated, both for organic municipal waste plants - with a bacterial prevalence - and agro zootechnical plants - with a fungi prevalence. Moreover, the microbial contamination is higher where organic municipal waste is present in respect to other biomasses (ANOVA p < 0.01). Numerous pathogens are carried by the aerosol. HAdV-4 presence is lower than LOQ (50 gene copies/m 3 ) in all the samples. Environmental PM10 reached the 280 μg/m 3 level including PM3 for 78%. Endotoxin pollution overtakes the 90 EU/m 3 limit sporadically. Personal PM4.5 reached 10 mg/m 3 only for maintenance technicians in the pretreatment area for organic municipal waste. The risk can be evaluated under a quantitative and qualitative point of view highlighting risk management improvement for anaerobic digestion plants. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. 76 FR 37770 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-28

    ...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... environmental assessment, or plant pest risk assessment, contact Ms. Cindy Eck at (301) 734-0667; email: cynthia... event MON 87701 is unlikely to pose a plant pest risk. APHIS has also prepared a draft environmental...

  19. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  20. Risk and Risk Assessment in Environmental Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chiras, Daniel D.

    1982-01-01

    Risk assessment (the identification of hazards, the determination of the probability of a hazardous event occurring, and an estimation of the severity of such an event's occurrence) is suggested as a technique to be used to analyze current issues in environmental education in an objective manner. (PEB)

  1. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    PubMed

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  2. Implementing a framework for integrating toxicokinetics into human health risk assessment for agrochemicals.

    PubMed

    Terry, Claire; Hays, Sean; McCoy, Alene T; McFadden, Lisa G; Aggarwal, Manoj; Rasoulpour, Reza J; Juberg, Daland R

    2016-03-01

    A strategic and comprehensive program in which toxicokinetic (TK) measurements are made for all agrochemicals undergoing toxicity testing (both new compounds and compounds already registered for use) is described. This approach provides the data to more accurately assess the toxicokinetics of agrochemicals and their metabolites in laboratory animals and humans. Having this knowledge provides the ability to conduct more insightful toxicity studies, refine and interpret exposure assessments and reduce uncertainty in risk assessments. By developing a better understanding of TK across species, including humans via in vitro metabolism studies, any differences across species in TK can be identified early and the most relevant species can be selected for toxicity tests. It also provides the ability to identify any non-linearities in TK as a function of dose, which in turn can be used to identify a kinetically derived maximum dose (KMD) and avoid dosing inappropriately outside of the kinetic linear range. Measuring TK in key life stages also helps to identify changes in ADME parameters from in utero to adults. A robust TK database can also be used to set internal concentration based "Reference Concentrations" and Biomonitoring Equivalents (BE), and support selection of Chemical Specific Adjustment Factors (CSAF). All of these factors support the reduction of uncertainty throughout the entire risk assessment process. This paper outlines how a TK research strategy can be integrated into new agrochemical toxicity testing programs, together with a proposed Framework for future use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk Assessment in Shellfish-Borne Outbreaks of Hepatitis A▿

    PubMed Central

    Pintó, Rosa M.; Costafreda, M. Isabel; Bosch, Albert

    2009-01-01

    In the present work, we aimed at determining the relationship between the hepatitis A virus (HAV) numbers in imported frozen coquina clams involved in two hepatitis outbreaks, as well as the risk for human health. Due to HAV unculturability, a standardized TaqMan real-time reverse transcription-PCR controlling the virus/nucleic acid extraction and enzyme efficiencies was employed to figure the exposure dose for clams responsible for hepatitis cases. HAV numbers were then employed to figure the risk of infection based on a dose-response model for echovirus 12. The estimated risk of infection after consumption of lightly cooked clams matched actual attack rates. Our data show that prospective monitoring of bivalve samples may fail to prevent the occurrence of outbreaks, since HAV was detected in 44% of samples directly associated with cases but was undetectable in samples that were randomly collected from the importers and belonged to the same batches. A correlation was nevertheless observed between the prevalence of hepatitis A cases in the harvesting areas and positive HAV isolation in clams, which points to the need to identify and prevent hazards rather than relying on random sampling of finished products to ensure safety. However, when evidence shows that a critical limit of viral contamination has been exceeded in the potential sources of contamination discharging into the shellfish-growing beds, quantitative virological analysis addressing quality assurance and quality control requirements should be performed with the bivalves. This work provides the first evidence of accurate HAV levels in shellfish involved in outbreaks that could be of use for risk assessment purposes. PMID:19820160

  4. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

  5. Rock Slide Risk Assessment: A Semi-Quantitative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duzgun, H. S. B.

    2009-04-01

    Rock slides can be better managed by systematic risk assessments. Any risk assessment methodology for rock slides involves identification of rock slide risk components, which are hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability. For a quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment for rock slides, a mathematical value the risk has to be computed and evaluated. The quantitative evaluation of risk for rock slides enables comparison of the computed risk with the risk of other natural and/or human-made hazards and providing better decision support and easier communication for the decision makers. A quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment procedure involves: Danger Identification, Hazard Assessment, Elements at Risk Identification, Vulnerability Assessment, Risk computation, Risk Evaluation. On the other hand, the steps of this procedure require adaptation of existing or development of new implementation methods depending on the type of landslide, data availability, investigation scale and nature of consequences. In study, a generic semi-quantitative risk assessment (SQRA) procedure for rock slides is proposed. The procedure has five consecutive stages: Data collection and analyses, hazard assessment, analyses of elements at risk and vulnerability and risk assessment. The implementation of the procedure for a single rock slide case is illustrated for a rock slope in Norway. Rock slides from mountain Ramnefjell to lake Loen are considered to be one of the major geohazards in Norway. Lake Loen is located in the inner part of Nordfjord in Western Norway. Ramnefjell Mountain is heavily jointed leading to formation of vertical rock slices with height between 400-450 m and width between 7-10 m. These slices threaten the settlements around Loen Valley and tourists visiting the fjord during summer season, as the released slides have potential of creating tsunami. In the past, several rock slides had been recorded from the Mountain Ramnefjell between 1905 and 1950. Among them

  6. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  7. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  8. Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2012-01-01

    The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

  9. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from broader cultural meaning systems to rationalize uncertainty. In this study, we identify some of the cultural heuristics used by migrant men in Goa, India to assess their risk of HIV infection from different sexual partners. Data derives from a series of in-depth interviews and a locally informed survey. Cultural heuristics identified include visual heuristics, heuristics of gender roles, vigilance and trust. The paper argues that, for more culturally informed HIV/AIDS behaviour change interventions, knowledge of cultural heuristics is essential.

  10. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  11. Cumulative Assessment of Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  12. Pesticide Science and Assessing Pesticide Risks

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  13. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  14. Laboratory-based versus non-laboratory-based method for assessment of cardiovascular disease risk: the NHANES I Follow-up Study cohort

    PubMed Central

    Gaziano, Thomas A; Young, Cynthia R; Fitzmaurice, Garrett; Atwood, Sidney; Gaziano, J Michael

    2008-01-01

    Summary Background Around 80% of all cardiovascular deaths occur in developing countries. Assessment of those patients at high risk is an important strategy for prevention. Since developing countries have limited resources for prevention strategies that require laboratory testing, we assessed if a risk prediction method that did not require any laboratory tests could be as accurate as one requiring laboratory information. Methods The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) was a prospective cohort study of 14 407 US participants aged between 25–74 years at the time they were first examined (between 1971 and 1975). Our follow-up study population included participants with complete information on these surveys who did not report a history of cardiovascular disease (myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, angina) or cancer, yielding an analysis dataset N=6186. We compared how well either method could predict first-time fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease events in this cohort. For the laboratory-based model, which required blood testing, we used standard risk factors to assess risk of cardiovascular disease: age, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, total cholesterol, reported diabetes status, and current treatment for hypertension. For the non-laboratory-based model, we substituted body-mass index for cholesterol. Findings In the cohort of 6186, there were 1529 first-time cardiovascular events and 578 (38%) deaths due to cardiovascular disease over 21 years. In women, the laboratory-based model was useful for predicting events, with a c statistic of 0·829. The c statistic of the non-laboratory-based model was 0·831. In men, the results were similar (0·784 for the laboratory-based model and 0·783 for the non-laboratory-based model). Results were similar between the laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based models in both men and women when restricted to fatal events only. Interpretation A method that uses non

  15. IN DEFENSE OF ECORISK ASSESSMENT (LETTER TO EDITOR)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dear Editor: We are writing to convey a more accurate portrayal of the status of ecological ("environmental" in Europe) risk assessment that was presented in the recent article by M. Power and L.S. McCarty (Fallacies in Ecological Risk Assessment Practices," August 1997, pp 370A-...

  16. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  17. RapidTox - Tools for Rapid Risk Assessments (BOSC)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessments are needed for hundreds to thousands of chemicals, many of which do not have the rich data sets required, for instance, for IRIS or PPRTV assessments. EPA program offices and groups (OLEM, OPP Inerts, OPPT and others) still need to carry out to risk assessments f...

  18. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  19. Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Preston, Benjamin L

    Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whommore » they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.« less

  20. Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

  1. Risk Assessment for Children Exposed to Beach Sands Impacted by Oil Spill Chemicals.

    PubMed

    Black, Jennifer C; Welday, Jennifer N; Buckley, Brian; Ferguson, Alesia; Gurian, Patrick L; Mena, Kristina D; Yang, Ill; McCandlish, Elizabeth; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M

    2016-08-27

    accurately assess exposure scenarios and health risks.

  2. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in themore » risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.« less

  3. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    PubMed

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk Assessment of Metals in Urban Soils from a Typical Industrial City, Suzhou, Eastern China

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Gang; Liu, Hou-Qi; Gong, Yu; Wei, Yang; Miao, Ai-Jun; Yang, Liu-Yan; Zhong, Huan

    2017-01-01

    Risk of metals in urban soils is less studied, compared to that in other types of soils, hindering accurate assessment of human exposure to metals. In this study, the concentrations of five metals (As, Cd, Cr, Pb, and Hg) were analyzed in 167 surface soil samples collected from Suzhou city and their potential ecological and human health risks were assessed. The mean concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, and Hg except Cr, were higher than the background values in Jiangsu Province. Metal concentrations varied among districts, where sites of high contamination showed a punctate distribution. Principal components and correlation analyses revealed that As, Pb, and Cd could originate from the same sources. The geo-accumulation (Igeo) and potential ecological risk indices (RI) were calculated and the relatively low values of Igeo (<0) and RI (<150) suggested generally low ecological risk. The noncarcinogenic risks of the metals were relatively low for Suzhou residents (i.e., average hazard index or HI: 0.1199 for adults and 0.5935 for children, <1), while the total carcinogenic risks (TCR) of Cr and As were acceptable (TCR in the range of 1.0 × 10−6 to 1.0 × 10−4). Children faced a higher threat than adults. Results of Monte-Carlo simulations were lower than those obtained from models using deterministic parameters. Of all the uncertain parameters, the ingestion rate and body weight were the most sensitive for adults and children, respectively, while As was an important factor for both. The results as well as the factors controlling risks of metals could help better understand the risks of metals in urban soils of industrial cities in China. PMID:28880235

  5. Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ray, Paul S.

    2002-01-01

    Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

  6. A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks

    Treesearch

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Bo Lu; Ronald Fournier; Gericke Cook; Jean J. Turgeon

    2017-01-01

    Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain data in a geographical...

  7. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    PubMed

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  8. Assessing Academic Risk of Student-Athletes: Applicability of the NCAA Graduation Risk Overview Model to GPA

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, James

    2013-01-01

    In an effort to standardize academic risk assessment, the NCAA developed the graduation risk overview (GRO) model. Although this model was designed to assess graduation risk, its ability to predict grade-point average (GPA) remained unknown. Therefore, 134 individual risk assessments were made to determine GRO model effectiveness in the…

  9. External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Powell, Troy C.

    Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind ofmore » r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.« less

  10. A risk assessment methodology for critical transportation infrastructure.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2002-01-01

    Infrastructure protection typifies a problem of risk assessment and management in a large-scale system. This study offers a methodological framework to identify, prioritize, assess, and manage risks. It includes the following major considerations: (1...

  11. Assessment and management of suicide risk in primary care.

    PubMed

    Saini, Pooja; While, David; Chantler, Khatidja; Windfuhr, Kirsten; Kapur, Navneet

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment and management of suicidal patients is emphasized as a key component of care in specialist mental health services, but these issues are relatively unexplored in primary care services. To examine risk assessment and management in primary and secondary care in a clinical sample of individuals who were in contact with mental health services and died by suicide. Data collection from clinical proformas, case records, and semistructured face-to-face interviews with general practitioners. Primary and secondary care data were available for 198 of the 336 cases (59%). The overall agreement in the rating of risk between services was poor (overall κ = .127, p = .10). Depression, care setting (after discharge), suicidal ideation at last contact, and a history of self-harm were associated with a rating of higher risk. Suicide prevention policies were available in 25% of primary care practices, and 33% of staff received training in suicide risk assessments. Risk is difficult to predict, but the variation in risk assessment between professional groups may reflect poor communication. Further research is required to understand this. There appears to be a relative lack of suicide risk assessment training in primary care.

  12. Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: Are We There Yet?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

    2015-01-01

    Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…

  13. Assessing risk of reoffending in adolescents who have committed a sexual offense: the accuracy of clinical judgments after completion of risk assessment instruments.

    PubMed

    Elkovitch, Natasha; Viljoen, Jodi L; Scalora, Mario J; Ullman, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    As courts often rely on clinicians when differentiating between sexually abusive youth at a low versus high risk of reoffense, understanding factors that contribute to accuracy in assessment of risk is imperative. The present study built on existing research by examining (1) the accuracy of clinical judgments of risk made after completing risk assessment instruments, (2) whether instrument-informed clinical judgments made with a high degree of confidence are associated with greater accuracy, and (3) the risk assessment instruments and subscales most predictive of clinical judgments. Raters assessed each youth's (n = 166) risk of reoffending after completing the SAVRY and J-SOAP-II. Raters were not able to predict detected cases of either sexual recidivism or nonsexual violent recidivism above chance, and a high degree of rater confidence was not associated with higher levels of accuracy. Total scores on the J-SOAP-II were predictive of instrument-informed clinical judgments of sexual risk, and total scores on the SAVRY of nonsexual risk.

  14. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2017-10-19

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  15. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    PubMed Central

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G.; Bos, Peter M. J.

    2017-01-01

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models. PMID:29048395

  16. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  17. Risk assessment guidance for Superfund: Volume 1 -- Human health evaluation manual. Supplement to Part A: Community involvement in Superfund risk assessments

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    NONE

    1999-03-01

    The purpose of the guidance document is to provide the site team--risk assessor, remedial project manager (RPM), and community involvement coordinator--with information to improve community involvement in the Superfund risk assessment process. Specifically, the document: provides suggestions for how Superfund staff and community members can work together during the early stages of Superfund cleanup; identifies where, within the framework of the human health risk assessment methodology, community input can augment and improve EPA`s estimates of exposure and risk; recommends questions the site team should ask the community; and illustrates why community involvement is valuable during the human health assessment atmore » Superfund sites.« less

  18. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xin; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947

  19. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  20. Whole-cell bioreporters and risk assessment of environmental pollution: A proof-of-concept study using lead.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiaokai; Qin, Boqiang; Deng, Jianming; Wells, Mona

    2017-10-01

    As the world burden of environmental contamination increases, it is of the utmost importance to develop streamlined approaches to environmental risk assessment in order to prioritize mitigation measures. Whole-cell biosensors or bioreporters and speciation modeling have both become of increasing interest to determine the bioavailability of pollutants, as bioavailability is increasingly in use as an indicator of risk. Herein, we examine whether bioreporter results are able to reflect expectations based on chemical reactivity and speciation modeling, with the hope to extend the research into a wider framework of risk assessment. We study a specific test case concerning the bioavailability of lead (Pb) in aqueous environments containing Pb-complexing ligands. Ligands studied include ethylene diamine tetra-acetic acid (EDTA), meso-2,3 dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA), leucine, methionine, cysteine, glutathione, and humic acid (HA), and we also performed experiments using natural water samples from Lake Tai (Taihu), the third largest lake in China. We find that EDTA, DMSA, cysteine, glutathione, and HA amendment significantly reduced Pb bioavailability with increasing ligand concentration according to a log-sigmoid trend. Increasing dissolved organic carbon in Taihu water also had the same effect, whereas leucine and methionine had no notable effect on bioavailability at the concentrations tested. We find that bioreporter results are in accord with the reduction of aqueous Pb 2+ that we expect from the relative complexation affinities of the different ligands tested. For EDTA and HA, for which reasonably accurate ionization and complexation constants are known, speciation modeling is in agreement with bioreporter response to within the level of uncertainty recognised as reasonable by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for speciation-based risk assessment applications. These findings represent a first step toward using bioreporter technology to streamline

  1. Throwing the baby out with the bath water: is it time for clinical judgment to supplement actuarial risk assessment?

    PubMed

    Abbott, Brian R

    2011-01-01

    The assessment of the potential for sexual violence is one of three prongs that must be met to satisfy the requirements for civil confinement of dangerous sex offenders in the 21 U.S. jurisdictions that have these laws. In a recent issue of The Journal, Sreenivasan et al. argued that, because of a host of methodological problems, actuarial risk assessment methods in general and the Static-99 and its progeny in particular are insufficient for accurate assessment of risk for dangerous sex offenders. They propose using a combination of clinical judgment with actuarial science as a solution. This analysis and review of Sreenivasan et al. reveals and corrects flaws in the arguments they employed to support their position and shows how the combination of actuarial science with clinical judgment is more error prone than the actuarial approach only, and cannot be forensically defended in court. Recommendations on reporting Static-99R data in expert testimony are provided, taking into account the limitations of the instrument.

  2. The linearized multistage model and the future of quantitative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Crump, K S

    1996-10-01

    The linearized multistage (LMS) model has for over 15 years been the default dose-response model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and other federal and state regulatory agencies in the United States for calculating quantitative estimates of low-dose carcinogenic risks from animal data. The LMS model is in essence a flexible statistical model that can describe both linear and non-linear dose-response patterns, and that produces an upper confidence bound on the linear low-dose slope of the dose-response curve. Unlike its namesake, the Armitage-Doll multistage model, the parameters of the LMS do not correspond to actual physiological phenomena. Thus the LMS is 'biological' only to the extent that the true biological dose response is linear at low dose and that low-dose slope is reflected in the experimental data. If the true dose response is non-linear the LMS upper bound may overestimate the true risk by many orders of magnitude. However, competing low-dose extrapolation models, including those derived from 'biologically-based models' that are capable of incorporating additional biological information, have not shown evidence to date of being able to produce quantitative estimates of low-dose risks that are any more accurate than those obtained from the LMS model. Further, even if these attempts were successful, the extent to which more accurate estimates of low-dose risks in a test animal species would translate into improved estimates of human risk is questionable. Thus, it does not appear possible at present to develop a quantitative approach that would be generally applicable and that would offer significant improvements upon the crude bounding estimates of the type provided by the LMS model. Draft USEPA guidelines for cancer risk assessment incorporate an approach similar to the LMS for carcinogens having a linear mode of action. However, under these guidelines quantitative estimates of low-dose risks would not be developed for

  3. Assessing risk of draft survey by AHP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei

    2018-04-01

    The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.

  4. NANOTECHNOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT CASE STUDY WORKSHOPS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Nanotechnology is expected to present both benefits and risks to human health and the environment. The assessment of risks related to nanotechnology requires information on the potential for exposure to, and adverse effects of, nanomaterials and their by-products. To help ensure...

  5. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  6. Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume III: Part A

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume 3A provides policies and guiding principles on the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to human health and ecological risk assessment in the EPA Superfund Program.

  7. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    PubMed

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  8. Assessing patient risk of central line-associated bacteremia via machine learning.

    PubMed

    Beeler, Cole; Dbeibo, Lana; Kelley, Kristen; Thatcher, Levi; Webb, Douglas; Bah, Amadou; Monahan, Patrick; Fowler, Nicole R; Nicol, Spencer; Judy-Malcolm, Alisa; Azar, Jose

    2018-04-13

    Central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) contribute to increased morbidity, length of hospital stay, and cost. Despite progress in understanding the risk factors, there remains a need to accurately predict the risk of CLABSIs and, in real time, prevent them from occurring. A predictive model was developed using retrospective data from a large academic healthcare system. Models were developed with machine learning via construction of random forests using validated input variables. Fifteen variables accounted for the most significant effect on CLABSI prediction based on a retrospective study of 70,218 unique patient encounters between January 1, 2013, and May 31, 2016. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the best-performing model was 0.82 in production. This model has multiple applications for resource allocation for CLABSI prevention, including serving as a tool to target patients at highest risk for potentially cost-effective but otherwise time-limited interventions. Machine learning can be used to develop accurate models to predict the risk of CLABSI in real time prior to the development of infection. Copyright © 2018 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Historical relationship between performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal and other types of risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Rechard, R P

    1999-10-01

    This article describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed until the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built on methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty.

  10. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENTS (RA.D.1D)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessments are based on questions that the assessor asks about scientific information that is relevant to human and/or environmental risk. The risk characterization also provides an evaluation of the assumptions, uncertainties, and selection of studies and models used in th...

  11. Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment were published in the Federal Register on April 23, 1996 (Federal Register: 17960-18011) for a 120-day public review and comment period. The Proposed Guidelines are a revision of EPA's 1986 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Ass...

  12. Integrating human health and ecological concerns in risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Cirone, P A; Bruce Duncan, P

    2000-11-03

    The interconnections between ecosystems, human health and welfare have been increasingly recognized by the US government, academia, and the public. This paper continues this theme by addressing the use of risk assessment to integrate people into a single assessment. In a broad overview of the risk assessment process we stress the need to build a conceptual model of the whole system including multiple species (humans and other ecological entities), stressors, and cumulative effects. We also propose converging landscape ecology and evaluation of ecosystem services with risk assessment to address these cumulative responses. We first look at how this integration can occur within the problem formulation step in risk assessment where the system is defined, a conceptual model created, a subset of components and functions selected, and the analytical framework decided in a context that includes the management decisions. A variety of examples of problem formulations (salmon, wild insects, hyporheic ecosystems, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, nitrogen fertilization, toxic chemicals, and oil spills) are presented to illustrate how treating humans as components of the landscape can add value to risk assessments. We conclude that the risk assessment process should help address the urgent needs of society in proportion to importance, to provide a format to communicate knowledge and understanding, and to inform policy and management decisions.

  13. INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT - RESULTS FROM AN INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

    EPA Science Inventory

    The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety and international partners have developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks and four case studies. An international workshop was convened to consider how ecological and health risk assess...

  14. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Zêzere, José L.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing the number and locations of exposed people is a crucial step in landslide risk management and emergency planning. The available population statistical data frequently have insufficient detail for an accurate assessment of potentially exposed people to hazardous events, mainly when they occur at the local scale, such as with landslides. The present study aims to apply dasymetric cartography to improving population spatial resolution and to assess the potentially exposed population. An additional objective is to compare the results with those obtained with a more common approach that uses, as spatial units, basic census units, which are the best spatial data disaggregation and detailed information available for regional studies in Portugal. Considering the Portuguese census data and a layer of residential building footprint, which was used as ancillary information, the number of exposed inhabitants differs significantly according to the approach used. When the census unit approach is used, considering the three highest landslide susceptible classes, the number of exposed inhabitants is in general overestimated. Despite the associated uncertainties of a general cost-benefit analysis, the presented methodology seems to be a reliable approach for gaining a first approximation of a more detailed estimation of exposed people. The approach based on dasymetric cartography allows the spatial resolution of population over large areas to be increased and enables the use of detailed landslide susceptibility maps, which are valuable for improving the exposed population assessment.

  15. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    EPA Science Inventory

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  16. Flood resilience and uncertainty in flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beven, K.; Leedal, D.; Neal, J.; Bates, P.; Hunter, N.; Lamb, R.; Keef, C.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk assessments do not normally take account of the uncertainty in assessing flood risk. There is no requirement in the EU Floods Directive to do so. But given the generally short series (and potential non-stationarity) of flood discharges, the extrapolation to smaller exceedance potentials may be highly uncertain. This means that flood risk mapping may also be highly uncertainty, with additional uncertainties introduced by the representation of flood plain and channel geometry, conveyance and infrastructure. This suggests that decisions about flood plain management should be based on exceedance probability of risk rather than the deterministic hazard maps that are common in most EU countries. Some examples are given from 2 case studies in the UK where a framework for good practice in assessing uncertainty in flood risk mapping has been produced as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium and Catchment Change Network Projects. This framework provides a structure for the communication and audit of assumptions about uncertainties.

  17. The Art of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Khambhati, Jay; Allard-Ratick, Marc; Dhindsa, Devinder; Lee, Suegene; Chen, John; Sandesara, Pratik B; Quyyumi, Arshed A; Wong, Nathan D; Blumenthal, Roger S; Sperling, Laurence

    2018-06-19

    The authors would like to submit two corrections on the recently published manuscript, Art of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment. In section 4, the original sentence states: "However, the SCCT does not recommend use of a CAC score in low-risk patients with an ASCVD risk of < 10%." We would like to correct this to "Furthermore, the SCCT recommends consideration of a CAC score in those with a risk score of 5-20% and selectively in those with lower predicted risk who have a family history of premature ASCVD or other risk conditions." This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  18. Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of

  19. Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

    PubMed

    Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

    2018-01-01

    In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

  20. Neurobehavioral epidemiology: application in risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Grandjean, P; White, R F; Weihe, P

    1996-01-01

    Neurobehavioral epidemiology may contribute information to risk assessment in relation to a) characterization of neurotoxicity and its time course; b) the dose-effect relationship; c) the dose-response relationship; and d) predisposing factors. The quality of this information relies on the validity of the exposure data, the validity and sensitivity of neurobehavioral function tests, and the degree to which sources of bias are controlled. With epidemiologic studies of methylmercury-associated neurotoxicity as an example, the field of research involves numerous uncertainties that should be taken into account in the risk assessment process. PMID:9182047

  1. Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead.

    Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy ...

  2. MINI REVIEW - EPIGENETIC PROCESSES AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment encourages the use of mechanistic data in the assessment of human cancer risk at low (environmental) exposure levels. The key events that define a particular mode of action for tumor fo...

  3. Accurate assessment of long-term nephrotoxicity after peptide receptor radionuclide therapy with (177)Lu-octreotate.

    PubMed

    Sabet, Amir; Ezziddin, Khaled; Pape, Ulrich-Frank; Reichman, Karl; Haslerud, Torjan; Ahmadzadehfar, Hojjat; Biersack, Hans-Jürgen; Nagarajah, James; Ezziddin, Samer

    2014-03-01

    Renal radiation during peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) may result in glomerular damage, a potential reduction of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and ultimately lead to renal failure. While reported PRRT nephrotoxicity is limited to data derived from serum creatinine-allowing only approximate estimates of GFR-the aim of this study is to accurately determine PRRT-induced long-term changes of renal function and associated risk factors according to state-of-the-art GFR measurement. Nephrotoxicity was analysed using (99m)Tc-diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) clearance data of 74 consecutive patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (GEP NET) undergoing PRRT with (177)Lu-octreotate. The mean follow-up period was 21 months (range 12-50) with a median of five GFR measurements per patient. The change of GFR was analysed by linear curve fit. Potential risk factors including diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, previous chemotherapy, renal impairment at baseline and cumulative administered activity were analysed regarding potential impact on renal function loss. In addition, Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) v3.0 were used to compare nephrotoxicity determined by (99m)Tc-DTPA clearance versus serum creatinine. The alteration in GFR differed widely among the patients (mean -2.1 ± 13.1 ml/min/m(2) per year, relative yearly reduction -1.8 ± 18.9%). Fifteen patients (21%) experienced a mild (2-10 ml/min/m(2) per year) and 16 patients (22%) a significant (>10 ml/min/m(2) per year) decline of GFR following PRRT. However, 11 patients (15%) showed an increase of >10 ml/min/m(2) per year. Relevant nephrotoxicity according to CTCAE (grade ≥3) was observed in one patient (1.3%) with arterial hypertension and history of chemotherapy. Nephrotoxicity according to serum creatinine was discordant to that defined by GFR in 15% of the assessments and led to underestimation in 12% of patients. None of the investigated

  4. A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frigm, Ryan Clayton; Newman, Lauri K.

    2009-01-01

    The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.

  5. Sulfur Oxides Risk and Exposure Assessment Planning ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    In conducting risk/exposure assessments for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review, EPA will first develop a draft Scope and Methods Plan which will describe the proposed scope of the quantitative and qualitative analyses to be performed and the tools/methods that may be employed Provide opportunity for CASAC feedback on EPA's plans for the risk and exposure assessment for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review

  6. An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

  7. Approaches for Establishing Fraud Risk Assessment Programs and Conducting Fraud Audit Risk Assessments Within the Department of Defense

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-07-17

    Auditing Health Care Organizations _________ 35 Special Fraud Risk Considerations When Auditing Government Contracts ______________ 36 iv │ DODIG-2014...Auditor Fraud Risk Assessment Special Considerations Special Fraud Risk Considerations When Auditing Health Care Organizations...Learning Opportunities 0 Government Relations (Public Policy and Strategic Relations) Government Relations 0 Health Care Affairs Health Care Affairs 0 Human

  8. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    PubMed

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  9. 28 CFR 105.14 - Risk assessment for candidates.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment for...

  10. 28 CFR 105.14 - Risk assessment for candidates.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment for...

  11. 28 CFR 105.14 - Risk assessment for candidates.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment for...

  12. 28 CFR 105.14 - Risk assessment for candidates.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment for...

  13. 28 CFR 105.14 - Risk assessment for candidates.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment for...

  14. Multilocus genetic risk scores for venous thromboembolism risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre-Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

    2014-10-23

    Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL-rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT-rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age- and sex-matched case-control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature-based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5-rs6025 and F2-rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  15. Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

  16. 2009 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 27-30, 2009 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  17. 2008 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2008 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 14 - 17, 2008 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk ...

  18. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  19. An information diffusion technique to assess integrated hazard risks.

    PubMed

    Huang, Chongfu; Huang, Yundong

    2018-02-01

    An integrated risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident caused by multiple hazards. An integrated probability risk is the expected value of disaster. Due to the difficulty of assessing an integrated probability risk with a small sample, weighting methods and copulas are employed to avoid this obstacle. To resolve the problem, in this paper, we develop the information diffusion technique to construct a joint probability distribution and a vulnerability surface. Then, an integrated risk can be directly assessed by using a small sample. A case of an integrated risk caused by flood and earthquake is given to show how the suggested technique is used to assess the integrated risk of annual property loss. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  1. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rath, F.

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation

  2. WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    NONE

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation

  3. Assessing health risks of synthetic vitreous fibers: an integrative approach.

    PubMed

    McClellan, R O

    1994-12-01

    This paper reviews a tiered approach to acquiring information from multiple experimental systems to understand and assess the potential human health risks of exposure to airborne synthetic fibers. The approach is grounded in the now widely accepted research-risk assessment-risk management paradigm. It involves the acquisition of information that will provide mechanistic linkages within the exposure-dose-response paradigm. It advocates the use of the inhalation route of exposure for developing relevant information for assessing human health risks and calls attention to serious problems encountered using nonphysiologic routes of administration to assess human health risks.

  4. Risk assessment and management approaches on mental health units.

    PubMed

    Woods, P

    2013-11-01

    This exploratory and descriptive study took place in one Canadian province. The study aimed to: (1) to identify and describe the nature and extent of current risk assessment and management approaches used in the adult inpatient mental health and forensic units; and (2) to identify good practice and shortfalls in the nature and extent of the approaches currently utilized. Data were collected from 48 participants through nine focus groups. Participants reported that they used a clinical approach to risk assessment. They had also not considered risk assessment and management as a proactive structured process. Education and training was also limited and skills were developed over time through practice. Five keys issues are discussed as important: reliance on clinical judgement alone is not the best choice to make; the need to consider risk as a whole concept; risk management being more reactive than proactive; education and training; and client involvement in risk assessment. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Flood Risk Assessments of Architectural Heritage - Case of Changgyeonggung Palace

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyosang; Kim, Ji-sung; Lee, Ho-jin

    2014-05-01

    The risk of natural disasters such as flood and earthquake has increased due to recent extreme weather events. Therefore, the necessity of the risk management system to protect architectural properties, a cultural heritage of humanity, from natural disasters has been consistently felt. The solutions for managing flood risk focusing on architectural heritage are suggested and applied to protect Changgyeonggung Palace, a major palace heritage in Seoul. After the probable rainfall scenario for risk assessment (frequency: 100 years, 200 years, and 500 years) and the scenario of a probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are made and a previous rainfall event (from July 26th to 28th in 2011) is identified, they are used for the model (HEC-HMS, SWMM) to assess flood risk of certain areas covering Changgyeonggung Palace to do flood amount. Such flood amount makes it possible to identify inundation risks based on GIS models to assess flood risk of individual architectural heritage. The results of assessing such risk are used to establish the disaster risk management system that managers of architectural properties can utilize. According to the results of assessing flood risk of Changgyeonggung Palace, inundation occurs near outlets of Changgyeonggung Palace and sections of river channel for all scenarios of flood risk but the inundation risk of major architectural properties was estimated low. The methods for assessing flood risk of architectural heritage proposed in this study and the risk management system for Changgyeonggung Palace using the methods show thorough solutions for flood risk management and the possibility of using the solutions seems high. A comprehensive management system for architectural heritage will be established in the future through the review on diverse factors for disasters.

  6. Behavioral Risk Assessment of the Guarded Suicidal Patient

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simon, Robert I.

    2008-01-01

    Psychiatrists and other mental health professionals are trained to assess patients by direct observation and examination. Short inpatient length of stay, brief outpatient visits, emergency room evaluations, and other time-limited clinical settings require rapid assessment of suicide risk. Recognition of behavioral suicide risk factors can assist…

  7. Systems Biology & Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology for risk assessment of environmental chemicals is a national extension of its use in pharmaceutical research. The basis for this is the concept of a key event network that builds on existing mode of action frameworks for risk assessment. The a...

  8. Assessing Human Health Risk to Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals: a Focus on Prenatal Exposures and Oxidative Stress

    PubMed Central

    Neier, Kari; Marchlewicz, Elizabeth H.; Dolinoy, Dana C.; Padmanabhan, Vasantha

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the health risk posed by endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is a challenge that is receiving intense attention. The following study criteria should be considered to facilitate risk assessment for exposure to EDCs: 1) characterization of target health outcomes and their mediators, 2) study of exposures in the context of critical periods of development, 3) accurate estimates of human exposures and use of human-relevant exposures in animal studies, and 4) cross-species comparisons. In this commentary, we discuss the importance and relevance of each of these criteria in studying the effects of prenatal exposure to EDCs. Our discussion focuses on oxidative stress as a mediator of EDC-related health effects due to its association with both EDC exposure and health outcomes. Our recent study (Veiga-Lopez et al. 2015)1 addressed each of the four outlined criteria and demonstrated that prenatal bisphenol-A exposure is associated with oxidative stress, a risk factor for developing diabetes and cardiovascular diseases in adulthood. PMID:27231701

  9. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    PubMed

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

    PubMed

    Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

    2018-06-01

    Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk assessments: Validation, gut feeling and cognitive biases (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merz, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    Risk management is ideally based on comprehensive risk assessments quantifying the current risk and its reduction for different mitigation strategies. Given the pivotal role of risk assessments, this contribution discusses the basis for our confidence in risk assessments. Traditional validation, i.e. comparing model simulations with past observations, is often not possible since the assessment typically contains extreme events and their impacts that have not been observed before. In this situation, the assessment is strongly based on assumptions, expert judgement and best guess. This is an unfavorable situation as humans fall prey to cognitive biases, such as 'illusion of certainty', 'overconfidence' or 'recency bias'. Such biases operate specifically in complex situations with many factors involved, when uncertainty is high and events are probabilistic, or when close learning feedback loops are missing - aspects that all apply to risk assessments. We reflect on the role of gut feeling in risk assessments, illustrate the pitfalls of cognitive biases, and discuss the possibilities for better understanding how confident we can be in the numbers resulting from risk assessments.

  12. Complex method to calculate objective assessments of information systems protection to improve expert assessments reliability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdenov, A. Zh; Trushin, V. A.; Abdenova, G. A.

    2018-01-01

    The paper considers the questions of filling the relevant SIEM nodes based on calculations of objective assessments in order to improve the reliability of subjective expert assessments. The proposed methodology is necessary for the most accurate security risk assessment of information systems. This technique is also intended for the purpose of establishing real-time operational information protection in the enterprise information systems. Risk calculations are based on objective estimates of the adverse events implementation probabilities, predictions of the damage magnitude from information security violations. Calculations of objective assessments are necessary to increase the reliability of the proposed expert assessments.

  13. 7 CFR 331.7 - Registration and related security risk assessments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Registration and related security risk assessments... AGENTS AND TOXINS § 331.7 Registration and related security risk assessments. (a) Unless exempted under... be approved by the Administrator or the HHS Secretary based on a security risk assessment by the...

  14. Comparing visual and objective skin assessment with pressure injury risk.

    PubMed

    Borzdynski, Caroline J; McGuiness, William; Miller, Charne

    2016-08-01

    Contemporary approaches to pressure injury (PI) risk identification rely on the use of risk assessment tools and visual skin assessment. Objective biophysical measures that assess skin hydration, melanin, erythema and lipids have not been traditionally used in PI risk; however, these may prove useful as a risk assessment tool. The relationship between subjective visual assessments of skin condition, biophysical measures and PI risk warrants investigation. This study used a descriptive correlational design to examine the relationship between measures of skin hydration, colour (melanin and erythema) and lipids at PI-prone areas amongst geriatric persons (n = 38), obtained using biophysical skin measures and visual skin assessment. Twice daily measures of epidermal hydration, colour and lipids were assessed using the SD202 Skin Diagnostic (Courage + Khazaka GmBH, Cologne, Germany) over pressure-prone areas of the body of study participants over seven consecutive days. Concurrent visual assessment of skin hydration and colour was performed. Results obtained using the SD202 Skin Diagnostic were compared with results gathered from visual assessment and examined for their association with participants' PI risk based on scores of the Norton Risk Assessment Scale. While epidermal hydration and skin colour reading scores did not vary significantly over the data collection period, lipid readings could not be registered on any occasion. With the exception of skin dryness, skin parameters via both objective and subjective means had significant, positive correlations. Statistically significant correlations emerged between visual assessment of skin wetness at the sacrum (r = -0·441, P < 0·01) and ischia (r = -0·468, P < 0·01) and Norton Risk Assessment Scale scores. It was found that the objective assessment of epidermal hydration (skin wetness) was also significantly associated with PI risk at the sacrum (r = -0·528, P < 0·01), as well as the right ischia (r = -0·410, P

  15. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

  16. A Successful ED Fall Risk Program Using the KINDER 1 Fall RiskAssessment Tool.

    PubMed

    Townsend, Ann B; Valle-Ortiz, Marisol; Sansweet, Tracy

    2016-11-01

    Emergency nurses did not perform falls risk assessments routinely on our ED patients; the instrument used was aimed at inpatients. We identified a need to revise fall assessment practices specific to our emergency department. The purpose of the performance improvement project was to reduce ED falls and evaluate the use of an ED-specific fall risk tool, the KINDER 1 Fall Risk Assessment. The plan was to establish fall risk assessment practices at point of ED entry and to decrease total falls. We retrospectively reviewed ED fall data for each quarter of 2013, which included risk assessments scores, the total number of falls, and the circumstances of each fall. Using Kotter's framework to guide a successful change process, we implemented the KINDER 1 to assess fall risk. During the first 4 weeks of the project, 937 patients (27%) were identified as high risk for falls using the KINDER 1. During the subsequent 3 quarters, the total number of falls decreased; reported falls without injuries dropped from 0.21 to 0.07 per 1000 patients, and falls with injuries were reduced from 0.21 to 0.0 per 1000 patients. The results of this project represented a valuable step toward achieving our goal to keep ED patients safe from injuries as a result of falls. The findings add to the body of nursing knowledge on the application of clinical-based performance improvement projects to improve patient outcomes and to provide data on the use of the KINDER 1 tool, which has not been extensively tested. Copyright © 2016 Emergency Nurses Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

    2006-01-01

    Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period

  18. Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

    2005-01-01

    Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period

  19. Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.; Ponomarev, A.; Ren, L.; Shavers, M. R.; Wu, H.

    2005-01-01

    Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period

  20. Cardiovascular risk factors among college students: Knowledge, perception, and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Tran, Dieu-My T; Zimmerman, Lani M; Kupzyk, Kevin A; Shurmur, Scott W; Pullen, Carol H; Yates, Bernice C

    2017-04-01

    To assess college students' knowledge and perception of cardiovascular risk factors and to screen for their cardiovascular risks. The final sample that responded to recruitment consisted of 158 college students from a midwestern university. A cross-sectional, descriptive study was performed using convenience sampling. College students were knowledgeable about cardiovascular risk factors but did not perceive themselves at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors was correlated with the lifetime risk estimates (ρ = .17, p = .048), and perception of cardiovascular risk was positively associated with 30-year CVD risk estimates (ρ = .16, p = .048). More than 50% of the participants had 1 or more cardiovascular risk factors. High knowledge level of cardiovascular risk factors was not sufficient to lower cardiovascular risks within this study population, but changing perception of cardiovascular risk factors may play a bigger role in reducing long-term cardiovascular risks.

  1. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  2. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  3. New methods for fall risk prediction.

    PubMed

    Ejupi, Andreas; Lord, Stephen R; Delbaere, Kim

    2014-09-01

    Accidental falls are the leading cause of injury-related death and hospitalization in old age, with over one-third of the older adults experiencing at least one fall or more each year. Because of limited healthcare resources, regular objective fall risk assessments are not possible in the community on a large scale. New methods for fall prediction are necessary to identify and monitor those older people at high risk of falling who would benefit from participating in falls prevention programmes. Technological advances have enabled less expensive ways to quantify physical fall risk in clinical practice and in the homes of older people. Recently, several studies have demonstrated that sensor-based fall risk assessments of postural sway, functional mobility, stepping and walking can discriminate between fallers and nonfallers. Recent research has used low-cost, portable and objective measuring instruments to assess fall risk in older people. Future use of these technologies holds promise for assessing fall risk accurately in an unobtrusive manner in clinical and daily life settings.

  4. Multi-hazards risk assessment at different levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

    2012-04-01

    Natural and technological disasters are becoming more frequent and devastating. Social and economic losses due to those events increase annually, which is definitely in relation with evolution of society. Natural hazards identification and analysis, as well natural risk assessment taking into account secondary technological accidents are the first steps in prevention strategy aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future events. The paper addresses methodological issues of natural and technological integrated risk assessment and mapping at different levels [1, 2]. At the country level the most hazardous natural processes, which may results in fatalities, injuries and economic loss in the Russian Federation, are considered. They are earthquakes, landslides, mud flows, floods, storms, avalanches. The special GIS environment for the country territory was developed which includes information about hazards' level and reoccurrence, an impact databases for the last 20 years, as well as models for estimating damage and casualties caused by these hazards. Federal maps of seismic individual and collective risk, as well as multi-hazards natural risk maps are presented. The examples of regional seismic risk assessment taking into account secondary accidents at fire, explosion and chemical hazardous facilities and regional integrated risk assessment are given for the earthquake prone areas of the Russian Federation. The paper also gives examples of loss computations due to scenario earthquakes taking into account accidents trigged by strong events at critical facilities: fire and chemical hazardous facilities, including oil pipe lines routes located in the earthquake prone areas. The estimations of individual seismic risk obtained are used by EMERCOM of the Russian Federation, as well as by other federal and local authorities, for planning and implementing preventive measures, aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future disastrous events. The

  5. Assessing glacial lake outburst flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Cook, Simon; Jomelli, Vincent; Clarke, Leon; Symeonakis, Elias

    2017-04-01

    Glaciers across the world are thinning and receding in response to atmospheric warming. Glaciers tend to erode subglacial basins and deposit eroded materials around their margins as lateral-frontal terminal moraines. Recession into these basins and behind impounding moraines causes meltwater to pond as proglacial and supraglacial lakes. Consequently, there has been a general trend of increasing number and size of these lakes associated with glacier melting in many mountainous regions around the globe, in the last 30 years. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) then may occur where the glacial lake dam (ice, rock, moraine, or combination thereof) is breached, or overtopped, and thousands of people have lost their lives to such events in the last few decades, especially in the Andes and in the Himalaya. Given the ongoing and arguably increasing risk posed to downstream communities, and infrastructure, there has been a proliferation of GLOF studies, with many seeking to estimate GLOF hazard or risk in specific regions, or to identify 'potentially dangerous glacial lakes'. Given the increased scientific interest in GLOFs, it is timely to evaluate critically the ways in which GLOF risk has been assessed previously, and whether there are improvements that can be made to the ways in which risk assessment is achieved. We argue that, whilst existing GLOF hazard and risk assessments have been extremely valuable they often suffer from a number of key shortcomings that can be addressed by using different techniques as multi-criteria decision analysis and hydraulic modelling borrowed from disciplines like engineering, remote sensing and operations research.

  6. [Statistical prediction methods in violence risk assessment and its application].

    PubMed

    Liu, Yuan-Yuan; Hu, Jun-Mei; Yang, Min; Li, Xiao-Song

    2013-06-01

    It is an urgent global problem how to improve the violence risk assessment. As a necessary part of risk assessment, statistical methods have remarkable impacts and effects. In this study, the predicted methods in violence risk assessment from the point of statistics are reviewed. The application of Logistic regression as the sample of multivariate statistical model, decision tree model as the sample of data mining technique, and neural networks model as the sample of artificial intelligence technology are all reviewed. This study provides data in order to contribute the further research of violence risk assessment.

  7. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  8. Review of methods for developing probabilistic risk assessments

    Treesearch

    D. A. Weinstein; P.B. Woodbury

    2010-01-01

    We describe methodologies currently in use or those under development containing features for estimating fire occurrence risk assessment. We describe two major categories of fire risk assessment tools: those that predict fire under current conditions, assuming that vegetation, climate, and the interactions between them and fire remain relatively similar to their...

  9. The Process of Suicide Risk Assessment: Twelve Core Principles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Granello, Darcy Haag

    2010-01-01

    Suicide risk assessment requires counselors to determine client risk factors, warning signs, and protective factors. The content of suicide assessment has received attention in the literature. The guiding principles of the process of suicide assessment, however, have not yet been articulated. This article contains 12 core process principles that…

  10. Import Security: Assessing the Risks of Imported Food.

    PubMed

    Welburn, Jonathan; Bier, Vicki; Hoerning, Steven

    2016-11-01

    We use data on food import violations from the FDA Operational and Administrative System for Import Support (OASIS) to address rising concerns associated with imported food, quantify import risks by product and by country of origin, and explore the usefulness of OASIS data for risk assessment. In particular, we assess whether there are significant trends in violations, whether import violations can be used to quantify risks by country and by product, and how import risks depend on economic factors of the country of origin. The results show that normalizing import violations by volume of imports provides a meaningful indicator of risk. We then use regression analysis to characterize import risks.  Using this model, we analyze import risks by product type, violation type, and economic factors of the country of origin.  We find that OASIS data are useful in quantifying food import risks, and that the rate of refusals provides a useful decision tool for risk management.  Furthermore, we find that some economic factors are significant indicators of food import risk by country. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Cardiovascular Risk Factors among College Students: Knowledge, Perception, and Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tran, Dieu-My T.; Zimmerman, Lani M.; Kupzyk, Kevin A.; Shurmur, Scott W.; Pullen, Carol H.; Yates, Bernice C.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To assess college students' knowledge and perception of cardiovascular risk factors and to screen for their cardiovascular risks. Participants: The final sample that responded to recruitment consisted of 158 college students from a midwestern university. Methods: A cross-sectional, descriptive study was performed using convenience…

  12. Pressure ulcer risk assessment and prevention: what difference does a risk scale make? A comparison between Norway and Ireland.

    PubMed

    Johansen, E; Moore, Z; van Etten, M; Strapp, H

    2014-07-01

    To explore similarities and differences in nurses' views on risk assessment practices and preventive care activities in a context where patients' risk of developing pressure ulcers is assessed using clinical judgment (Norway) and a context where patients' risk of developing pressure ulcers is assessed using a formal structured risk assessment combined with clinical judgement (Ireland). A descriptive, qualitative design was employed across two different care settings with a total of 14 health care workers, nine from Norway and five from Ireland. Regardless of whether risk assessment was undertaken using clinical judgment or formal structured risk assessment, identified risk factors, at risk patients and appropriate preventive initiatives discussed by participant were similar across care settings. Furthermore, risk assessment did not necessarily result in the planning and implementation of appropriate pressure ulcer prevention initiatives. Thus, in this instance, use of a formal risk assessment tool does not seem to make any difference to the planning, initiation and evaluation of pressure ulcer prevention strategies. Regardless of the method of risk assessment, patients at risk of developing pressure ulcers are detected, suggesting that the practice of risk assessment should be re-evaluated. Moreover, appropriate preventive interventions were described. However, the missing link between risk assessment and documented care planning is of concern and barriers to appropriate pressure ulcer documentation should be explored further. This work is partly funded by a research grant from the Norwegian Nurses Organisation (NNO) (Norsk Sykepleierforbund NSF) in 2012. The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

  13. Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders.

    PubMed

    Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

    2017-06-04

    This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as "relatively low", contrasting with 21.4% rated as "relatively high". Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders.

  14. Detection of compensatory balance responses using wearable electromyography sensors for fall-risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Nouredanesh, Mina; Kukreja, Sunil L; Tung, James

    2016-08-01

    Loss of balance is prevalent in older adults and populations with gait and balance impairments. The present paper aims to develop a method to automatically distinguish compensatory balance responses (CBRs) from normal gait, based on activity patterns of muscles involved in maintaining balance. In this study, subjects were perturbed by lateral pushes while walking and surface electromyography (sEMG) signals were recorded from four muscles in their right leg. To extract sEMG time domain features, several filtering characteristics and segmentation approaches are examined. The performance of three classification methods, i.e., k-nearest neighbor, support vector machines, and random forests, were investigated for accurate detection of CBRs. Our results show that features extracted in the 50-200Hz band, segmented using peak sEMG amplitudes, and a random forest classifier detected CBRs with an accuracy of 92.35%. Moreover, our results support the important role of biceps femoris and rectus femoris muscles in stabilization and consequently discerning CBRs. This study contributes towards the development of wearable sensor systems to accurately and reliably monitor gait and balance control behavior in at-home settings (unsupervised conditions), over long periods of time, towards personalized fall risk assessment tools.

  15. Multi-informant assessment of siblings of youth with autism spectrum disorder: Parent-child discrepancies in at-risk classification.

    PubMed

    Rankin, James A; Tomeny, Theodore S; Barry, Tammy D

    2017-09-01

    The behavioral and emotional functioning of typically-developing (TD) siblings of youth with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has been frequently assessed in the literature; however, these assessments typically include only one informant, rarely considering differences between parent and self-reports of sibling adjustment. This study examined parent-youth reported informant discrepancies in behavioral and emotional functioning, including whether parent and youth reports yielded the same conclusions regarding TD sibling risk status. Among 113 parents and TD siblings of youth with ASD, TD siblings self-reported more overall, conduct, hyperactivity, and peer problems (compared to parent reports). Although few siblings were considered at-risk, those who were identified were not usually identified as at-risk on both informants' reports. Moreover, ASD symptoms, broader autism phenotype symptoms, parent mental health concerns, and social support from parents were all related to differences in at-risk classification between parent- and sibling self-report. This paper highlights the necessity of multi-informant reporting when considering TD sibling psychological functioning. This study helps to address gaps in the literature on assessment of emotional and behavioral functioning of TD siblings of youth with ASD. The results highlight the importance of utilizing both parent- and self-report when identifying TD siblings at-risk for maladjustment. Although few siblings were considered at-risk, those who were identified were not usually identified as such on both informants' reports, and a variety of sibling- and parent-factors were associated with differences in at-risk classification. Thus, inclusion and examination of both parent- and self-report of TD sibling psychological functioning is vital for accurately identifying numbers of TD siblings at-risk of maladjustment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitization: Success or failure?

    PubMed

    Kimber, Ian; Gerberick, G Frank; Basketter, David A

    2017-02-01

    Skin sensitization is unique in the world of toxicology. There is a combination of reliable, validated predictive test methods for identification of skin sensitizing chemicals, a clearly documented and transparent approach to risk assessment, and effective feedback from dermatology clinics around the world delivering evidence of the success or failure of the hazard identification/risk assessment/management process. Recent epidemics of contact allergy, particularly to preservatives, have raised questions of whether the safety/risk assessment process is working in an optimal manner (or indeed is working at all!). This review has as its focus skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The core toxicological principles of QRA are reviewed, and evidence of use and misuse examined. What becomes clear is that skin sensitization QRA will only function adequately if two essential criteria are met. The first is that QRA is applied rigourously, and the second is that potential exposure to the sensitizing substance is assessed adequately. This conclusion will come as no surprise to any toxicologist who appreciates the basic premise that "risk = hazard x exposure". Accordingly, use of skin sensitization QRA is encouraged, not least because the essential feedback from dermatology clinics can be used as a tool to refine QRA in situations where this risk assessment tool has not been properly used. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

    2005-01-01

    Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

  18. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

  19. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

  20. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

  1. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

  2. Assessing risks of hydrocarbon spills in tropical environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makarynskyy, Oleg; Makarynska, Dina; Negri, Andrew

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing pressure of exposure to petroleum hydrocarbons in tropical northern Australia. This is due to increasing population and industrial activities, such as oil and gas extraction, ship traffic, and related planned (e.g. wastewater) and accidental (e.g. spills) discharges. Through close collaboration between AIMS and AECOM, a novel, integrated approach to spill risk assessments has been developed. The approach links outcomes of a semi-quantitative risk assessment methodology to results of spill weathering and trajectory numerical modelling and to emerging tropical toxicological data. The risk assessment is based on triple bottom line concept and uses a multi-disciplinary expert panel to assess the probabilities and consequential impacts associated with potential risk events, such as accidental hydrocarbon spills. The probability assessments of spills are based on the type of operations being assessed and historical spill data available for the area and region. Quantifying the impacts of hydrocarbon spills requires an understanding of the impact extents as well as of the sensitivity of relevant tropical species to both hydrocarbons and dispersants. The quantification of impacts for certain operations and areas may only rely on the known nature of hydrocarbons, while spill volumes and extents of slick propagation are highly variable. Critical ecotoxicity data for tropical environments are scarce. Consequentially, assessments of probabilities and impacts may differ dramatically depending on the ambient conditions taken into consideration, level of understanding of properties of spilled hydrocarbon, and numerical models and techniques employed for simulating oil weathering and slick trajectories and thicknesses, as well as the available ecotoxicology thresholds of affected species. The outcomes of the combined risk and impact assessments for the first time provide industry and regulators with advanced pre-spill information thus vastly improving the

  3. Regulatory risk assessment approaches for synthetic mineral fibres.

    PubMed

    Harrison, Paul; Holmes, Philip; Bevan, Ruth; Kamps, Klaus; Levy, Leonard; Greim, Helmut

    2015-10-01

    Exposure to synthetic mineral fibres (SMF) may occur in a number of workplace scenarios. To protect worker health, a number of different organisations worldwide have assessed the health risk of these materials and established workplace exposure limits. This paper outlines the basic principles of risk assessment and the scientific methods used to derive valid (justifiable) occupational exposure limits (OELs) and goes on to show how, for SMF, and particularly for refractory ceramic fibre (otherwise known as aluminosilicate wool, RCF/ASW), the methods used and the associated outcomes differ widely. It is argued that the resulting differences in established OELs prevent consistent and appropriate risk management of SMF worldwide, and that development of a transparent and harmonised approach to fibre risk assessment and limit-setting is required. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Impact risk assessment and planetary defense mission planning for asteroid 2015 PDC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vardaxis, George; Sherman, Peter; Wie, Bong

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, an integrated utilization of analytic keyhole theory, B-plane mapping, and planetary encounter geometry, augmented by direct numerical simulation, is shown to be useful in determining the impact risk of an asteroid with the Earth on a given encounter, as well on potential future encounters via keyhole passages. The accurate estimation of the impact probability of hazardous asteroids is extremely important for planetary defense mission planning. Asteroids in Earth resonant orbits are particularly troublesome because of the continuous threat they pose in the future. Based on the trajectories of the asteroid and the Earth, feasible mission trajectories can be found to mitigate the impact threat of hazardous asteroids. In order to try to ensure mission success, trajectories are judged based on initial and final mission design parameters that would make the mission easier to complete. Given the potential of a short-warning time scenario, a disruption mission considered in this paper occurs approximately one year prior to the anticipated impact date. Expanding upon the established theory, a computational method is developed to estimate the impact probability of the hazardous asteroid, in order to assess the likelihood of an event, and then investigate the fragmentation of the asteroid due to a disruption mission and analyze its effects on the current and future encounters of the fragments with Earth. A fictional asteroid, designated as 2015 PDC - created as an example asteroid risk exercise for the 2015 Planetary Defence Conference, is used as a reference target asteroid to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of computational tools being developed for impact risk assessment and planetary defense mission planning for a hazardous asteroid or comet.

  5. Human Health Risk Assessment: A case study application of principles in dose response assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    This case study application workshop will build on fundamental concepts and techniques in risk assessment presented and archived at previous TRAC meeting workshops. Practical examples from publicly available, peer reviewed risk assessments will be used as teaching aids. Course ...

  6. The role of deposits in tsunami risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaffe, B.

    2008-01-01

    An incomplete catalogue of tsunamis in the written record hinders tsunami risk assessment. Tsunami deposits, hard evidence of tsunami, can be used to extend the written record. The two primary factors in tsunami risk, tsunami frequency and magnitude, can be addressed through field and modeling studies of tsunami deposits. Recent research has increased the utility of tsunami deposits in tsunami risk assessment by improving the ability to identify tsunami deposits and developing models to determine tsunami magnitude from deposit characteristics. Copyright ASCE 2008.

  7. Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

    2018-03-01

    Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

  8. Risk Assessment for Children Exposed to Beach Sands Impacted by Oil Spill Chemicals

    PubMed Central

    Black, Jennifer C.; Welday, Jennifer N.; Buckley, Brian; Ferguson, Alesia; Gurian, Patrick L.; Mena, Kristina D.; Yang, Ill; McCandlish, Elizabeth; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M.

    2016-01-01

    accurately assess exposure scenarios and health risks. PMID:27618904

  9. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  10. Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

    2008-11-15

    In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculationsmore » were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm.« less

  11. Approach for Assessing Direct Flood Damages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaňová, Lenka; Zeleňáková, Martina; Słyś, Daniel; Purcz, Pavol

    2014-11-01

    This article presents a methodological approach to flood direct tangible damage - damage to assets and direct intangible damage - environmental damage and loss of life assessment. The assessment of flood risk is an essential part of the risk management approach, which is the conceptual basis for the EU directive 2007/60/ES on the assessment and management of flood risk. The purpose of this directive is to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risk, aiming at the reduction of the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with flood in the community. Overall, an accurate estimation of negative effects on assets, environment and people is important in order to be able to determine the economy, environmental and social flood risk level in a system and the effects of risk mitigation measures.

  12. Mental Health Professionals' Suicide Risk Assessment and Management Practices.

    PubMed

    Roush, Jared F; Brown, Sarah L; Jahn, Danielle R; Mitchell, Sean M; Taylor, Nathanael J; Quinnett, Paul; Ries, Richard

    2018-01-01

    Approximately 20% of suicide decedents have had contact with a mental health professional within 1 month prior to their death, and the majority of mental health professionals have treated suicidal individuals. Despite limited evidence-based training, mental health professionals make important clinical decisions related to suicide risk assessment and management. The current study aimed to determine the frequency of suicide risk assessment and management practices and the association between fear of suicide-related outcomes or comfort working with suicidal individuals and adequacy of suicide risk management decisions among mental health professionals. Mental health professionals completed self-report assessments of fear, comfort, and suicide risk assessment and management practices. Approximately one third of mental health professionals did not ask every patient about current or previous suicidal thoughts or behaviors. Further, comfort, but not fear, was positively associated with greater odds of conducting evidence-based suicide risk assessments at first appointments and adequacy of suicide risk management practices with patients reporting suicide ideation and a recent suicide attempt. The study utilized a cross-sectional design and self-report questionnaires. Although the majority of mental health professionals report using evidenced-based practices, there appears to be variability in utilization of evidence-based practices.

  13. ADVANCED PESTICIDE RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The use of herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and growth regulating chemicals is necessary in modern agriculture, silviculture, and public health vector control operations. The task for environmental risk assessment is to delineate the food chain contamination and ecological v...

  14. [Study on the risk assessment method of regional groundwater pollution].

    PubMed

    Yang, Yan; Yu, Yun-Jiang; Wang, Zong-Qing; Li, Ding-Long; Sun, Hong-Wei

    2013-02-01

    Based on the boundary elements of system risk assessment, the regional groundwater pollution risk assessment index system was preliminarily established, which included: regional groundwater specific vulnerability assessment, the regional pollution sources characteristics assessment and the health risk assessment of regional featured pollutants. The three sub-evaluation systems were coupled with the multi-index comprehensive method, the risk was characterized with the Spatial Analysis of ArcMap, and a new method to evaluate regional groundwater pollution risk that suitable for different parts of natural conditions, different types of pollution was established. Take Changzhou as an example, the risk of shallow groundwater pollution was studied with the new method, and found that the vulnerability index of groundwater in Changzhou is high and distributes unevenly; The distribution of pollution sources is concentrated and has a great impact on groundwater pollution risks; Influenced by the pollutants and pollution sources, the values of health risks are high in the urban area of Changzhou. The pollution risk of shallow groundwater is high and distributes unevenly, and distributes in the north of the line of Anjia-Xuejia-Zhenglu, the center of the city and the southeast, where the human activities are more intense and the pollution sources are intensive.

  15. Best practice in wound assessment.

    PubMed

    Benbow, Maureen

    2016-03-02

    Accurate and considered wound assessment is essential to fulfil professional nursing requirements and ensure appropriate patient and wound management. This article describes the main aspects of holistic assessment of the patient and the wound, including identifying patient risk factors and comorbidities, and factors affecting wound healing to ensure optimal outcomes.

  16. Mercury from dental amalgam: exposure and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koral, Stephen M

    2013-02-01

    There has long been an undercurrent within the dental profession of anti-amalgam sentiment, a "mercury-free" movement. To assess whether anything is or is not scientifically wrong with amalgam, one must look to the vast literature on exposure, toxicology, and risk assessment of mercury. The subject of risk assessment goes straight to the heart of the debate over whether a malgam is safe, or not, for unrestricted use in dentistry in the population at large.

  17. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  18. Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders

    PubMed Central

    Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as “relatively low”, contrasting with 21.4% rated as “relatively high”. Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders. PMID:28587226

  19. Environmental risk assessment of water quality in harbor areas: a new methodology applied to European ports.

    PubMed

    Gómez, Aina G; Ondiviela, Bárbara; Puente, Araceli; Juanes, José A

    2015-05-15

    This work presents a standard and unified procedure for assessment of environmental risks at the contaminant source level in port aquatic systems. Using this method, port managers and local authorities will be able to hierarchically classify environmental hazards and proceed with the most suitable management actions. This procedure combines rigorously selected parameters and indicators to estimate the environmental risk of each contaminant source based on its probability, consequences and vulnerability. The spatio-temporal variability of multiple stressors (agents) and receptors (endpoints) is taken into account to provide accurate estimations for application of precisely defined measures. The developed methodology is tested on a wide range of different scenarios via application in six European ports. The validation process confirms its usefulness, versatility and adaptability as a management tool for port water quality in Europe and worldwide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Risk assessment and psychosocial interventions for suicidal patients

    PubMed Central

    Chesin, Megan; Stanley, Barbara

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Suicide is a leading cause of death in the US. Although factors elevating long-term risk for suicide are known and include bipolar disorder, signs of imminent suicide risk are difficult to study and not well-specified. Acute risk determinations must be made to determine the appropriate level of care to safeguard patients. To increase safety among at-risk patients in the short term and to decrease risk over time, psychosocial interventions to prevent suicide have been developed and tested in acute care and outpatient settings. Methods A narrative review of studies of imminent risk factors for suicide, suicide risk decision making, and psychosocial suicide prevention interventions was conducted. Results While some long-term risk factors of suicide have been established, accurate identification of individuals at imminent risk for suicide is difficult. Therefore, prevention efforts targeting individuals at high suicide behavior risk discharging from acute care settings tend to be generic and focus on psychoeducation and supportive follow-up contact. Data regarding the effectiveness of brief interventions (i.e., those not requiring more than one individualized treatment session) is mixed, showing better outcomes in the shorter term and when incidence of suicidal behavior or ideation is the outcome. With respect to longer term suicide prevention interventions (i.e., those with a minimum of 10 sessions), Dialectical Behavior Therapy has the largest evidence base. Conclusions To improve suicide prevention efforts, more rigorous study of imminent risk factors and psychosocial interventions is needed. Adaptations specific to individuals with bipolar disorder are possible and needed. PMID:23782460