Sample records for accurately predict ice

  1. Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stroeve, Julienne; Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward

    2014-04-01

    Since 2008, the Study of Environmental Arctic Change Sea Ice Outlook has solicited predictions of September sea-ice extent from the Arctic research community. Individuals and teams employ a variety of modeling, statistical, and heuristic approaches to make these predictions. Viewed as monthly ensembles each with one or two dozen individual predictions, they display a bimodal pattern of success. In years when observed ice extent is near its trend, the median predictions tend to be accurate. In years when the observed extent is anomalous, the median and most individual predictions are less accurate. Statistical analysis suggests that year-to-year variability, rather than methods, dominate the variation in ensemble prediction success. Furthermore, ensemble predictions do not improve as the season evolves. We consider the role of initial ice, atmosphere and ocean conditions, and summer storms and weather in contributing to the challenge of sea-ice prediction.

  2. DRA/NASA/ONERA Collaboration on Icing Research. Part 2; Prediction of Airfoil Ice Accretion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.; Gent, R. W.; Guffond, Didier

    1997-01-01

    This report presents results from a joint study by DRA, NASA, and ONERA for the purpose of comparing, improving, and validating the aircraft icing computer codes developed by each agency. These codes are of three kinds: (1) water droplet trajectory prediction, (2) ice accretion modeling, and (3) transient electrothermal deicer analysis. In this joint study, the agencies compared their code predictions with each other and with experimental results. These comparison exercises were published in three technical reports, each with joint authorship. DRA published and had first authorship of Part 1 - Droplet Trajectory Calculations, NASA of Part 2 - Ice Accretion Prediction, and ONERA of Part 3 - Electrothermal Deicer Analysis. The results cover work done during the period from August 1986 to late 1991. As a result, all of the information in this report is dated. Where necessary, current information is provided to show the direction of current research. In this present report on ice accretion, each agency predicted ice shapes on two dimensional airfoils under icing conditions for which experimental ice shapes were available. In general, all three codes did a reasonable job of predicting the measured ice shapes. For any given experimental condition, one of the three codes predicted the general ice features (i.e., shape, impingement limits, mass of ice) somewhat better than did the other two. However, no single code consistently did better than the other two over the full range of conditions examined, which included rime, mixed, and glaze ice conditions. In several of the cases, DRA showed that the user's knowledge of icing can significantly improve the accuracy of the code prediction. Rime ice predictions were reasonably accurate and consistent among the codes, because droplets freeze on impact and the freezing model is simple. Glaze ice predictions were less accurate and less consistent among the codes, because the freezing model is more complex and is critically

  3. Arctic Sea Ice Predictability and the Sea Ice Prediction Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiggins, H. V.; Stroeve, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    Drastic reductions in Arctic sea ice cover have increased the demand for Arctic sea ice predictions by a range of stakeholders, including local communities, resource managers, industry and the public. The science of sea-ice prediction has been challenged to keep up with these developments. Efforts such as the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO; http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook) and the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook have provided a forum for the international sea-ice prediction and observing community to explore and compare different approaches. The SIO, originally organized by the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH), is now managed by the new Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), which is building a collaborative network of scientists and stakeholders to improve arctic sea ice prediction. The SIO synthesizes predictions from a variety of methods, including heuristic and from a statistical and/or dynamical model. In a recent study, SIO data from 2008 to 2013 were analyzed. The analysis revealed that in some years the predictions were very successful, in other years they were not. Years that were anomalous compared to the long-term trend have proven more difficult to predict, regardless of which method was employed. This year, in response to feedback from users and contributors to the SIO, several enhancements have been made to the SIO reports. One is to encourage contributors to provide spatial probability maps of sea ice cover in September and the first day each location becomes ice-free; these are an example of subseasonal to seasonal, local-scale predictions. Another enhancement is a separate analysis of the modeling contributions. In the June 2014 SIO report, 10 of 28 outlooks were produced from models that explicitly simulate sea ice from dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models. Half of the models included fully-coupled (atmosphere, ice, and ocean) models that additionally employ data assimilation. Both of these subsets (models and coupled models with data

  4. Sea Ice Prediction Has Easy and Difficult Years

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Cutler, Matthew; Kay, Jennifer; Meier, Walter N.; Stroeve, Julienne; Wiggins, Helen

    2014-01-01

    Arctic sea ice follows an annual cycle, reaching its low point in September each year. The extent of sea ice remaining at this low point has been trending downwards for decades as the Arctic warms. Around the long-term downward trend, however, there is significant variation in the minimum extent from one year to the next. Accurate forecasts of yearly conditions would have great value to Arctic residents, shipping companies, and other stakeholders and are the subject of much current research. Since 2008 the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook) organized by the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program) has invited predictions of the September Arctic sea ice minimum extent, which are contributed from the Arctic research community. Individual predictions, based on a variety of approaches, are solicited in three cycles each year in early June, July, and August. (SEARCH 2013).

  5. A Comparative Study Using CFD to Predict Iced Airfoil Aerodynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chi, x.; Li, Y.; Chen, H.; Addy, H. E.; Choo, Y. K.; Shih, T. I-P.

    2005-01-01

    WIND, Fluent, and PowerFLOW were used to predict the lift, drag, and moment coefficients of a business-jet airfoil with a rime ice (rough and jagged, but no protruding horns) and with a glaze ice (rough and jagged end has two or more protruding horns) for angles of attack from zero to and after stall. The performance of the following turbulence models were examined by comparing predictions with available experimental data. Spalart-Allmaras (S-A), RNG k-epsilon, shear-stress transport, v(sup 2)-f, and a differential Reynolds stress model with and without non-equilibrium wall functions. For steady RANS simulations, WIND and FLUENT were found to give nearly identical results if the grid about the iced airfoil, the turbulence model, and the order of accuracy of the numerical schemes used are the same. The use of wall functions was found to be acceptable for the rime ice configuration and the flow conditions examined. For rime ice, the S-A model was found to predict accurately until near the stall angle. For glaze ice, the CFD predictions were much less satisfactory for all turbulence models and codes investigated because of the large separated region produced by the horns. For unsteady RANS, WIND and FLUENT did not provide better results. PowerFLOW, based on the Lattice Boltzmann method, gave excellent results for the lift coefficient at and near stall for the rime ice, where the flow is inherently unsteady.

  6. Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

  7. Analytical ice shape predictions for flight in natural icing conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berkowitz, Brian M.; Riley, James T.

    1988-01-01

    LEWICE is an analytical ice prediction code that has been evaluated against icing tunnel data, but on a more limited basis against flight data. Ice shapes predicted by LEWICE is compared with experimental ice shapes accreted on the NASA Lewis Icing Research Aircraft. The flight data selected for comparison includes liquid water content recorded using a hot wire device and droplet distribution data from a laser spectrometer; the ice shape is recorded using stereo photography. The main findings are as follows: (1) An equivalent sand grain roughness correlation different from that used for LEWICE tunnel comparisons must be employed to obtain satisfactory results for flight; (2) Using this correlation and making no other changes in the code, the comparisons to ice shapes accreted in flight are in general as good as the comparisons to ice shapes accreted in the tunnel (as in the case of tunnel ice shapes, agreement is least reliable for large glaze ice shapes at high angles of attack); (3) In some cases comparisons can be somewhat improved by utilizing the code so as to take account of the variation of parameters such as liquid water content, which may vary significantly in flight.

  8. A prediction method of ice breaking resistance using a multiple regression analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Seong-Rak; Lee, Sungsu

    2015-07-01

    The two most important tasks of icebreakers are first to secure a sailing route by breaking the thick sea ice and second to sail efficiently herself for purposes of exploration and transportation in the polar seas. The resistance of icebreakers is a priority factor at the preliminary design stage; not only must their sailing efficiency be satisfied, but the design of the propulsion system will be directly affected. Therefore, the performance of icebreakers must be accurately calculated and evaluated through the use of model tests in an ice tank before construction starts. In this paper, a new procedure is developed, based on model tests, to estimate a ship's ice breaking resistance during continuous ice-breaking in ice. Some of the factors associated with crushing failures are systematically considered in order to correctly estimate her ice-breaking resistance. This study is intended to contribute to the improvement of the techniques for ice resistance prediction with ice breaking ships.

  9. Predicting the melting temperature of ice-Ih with only electronic structure information as input.

    PubMed

    Pinnick, Eric R; Erramilli, Shyamsunder; Wang, Feng

    2012-07-07

    The melting temperature of ice-Ih was calculated with only electronic structure information as input by creating a problem-specific force field. The force field, Water model by AFM for Ice and Liquid (WAIL), was developed with the adaptive force matching (AFM) method by fitting to post-Hartree-Fock quality forces obtained in quantum mechanics∕molecular mechanics calculations. WAIL predicts the ice-Ih melting temperature to be 270 K. The model also predicts the densities of ice and water, the temperature of maximum density of water, the heat of vaporizations, and the radial distribution functions for both ice and water in good agreement with experimental measurements. The non-dissociative WAIL model is very similar to a flexible version of the popular TIP4P potential and has comparable computational cost. By customizing to problem-specific configurations with the AFM approach, the resulting model is remarkably more accurate than any variants of TIP4P for simulating ice-Ih and water in the temperature range from 253 K and 293 K under ambient pressure.

  10. Predicting the Kinetics of Ice Recrystallization in Aqueous Sugar Solutions

    PubMed Central

    2018-01-01

    The quality of stored frozen products such as foods and biomaterials generally degrades in time due to the growth of large ice crystals by recrystallization. While there is ample experimental evidence that recrystallization within such products (or model systems thereof) is often dominated by diffusion-limited Ostwald ripening, the application of Ostwald-ripening theories to predict measured recrystallization rates has only met with limited success. For a model system of polycrystalline ice within an aqueous solution of sugars, we here show recrystallization rates can be predicted on the basis of Ostwald ripening theory, provided (1) the theory accounts for the fact the solution can be nonideal, nondilute and of different density than the crystals, (2) the effect of ice-phase volume fraction on the diffusional flux of water between crystals is accurately described, and (3) all relevant material properties (involving binary Fick diffusion coefficients, the thermodynamic factor of the solution, and the surface energy of ice) are carefully estimated. To enable calculation of material properties, we derive an alternative formulation of Ostwald ripening in terms of the Maxwell–Stefan instead of the Fick approach to diffusion. First, this leads to a cancellation of the thermodynamic factor (a measure for the nonideality of a solution), which is a notoriously difficult property to obtain. Second, we show that Maxwell–Stefan diffusion coefficients can to a reasonable approximation be related to self-diffusion coefficients, which are relatively easy to measure or predict in comparison to Fick diffusion coefficients. Our approach is validated for a binary system of water and sucrose, for which we show predicted recrystallization rates of ice compare well to experimental results, with relative deviations of at most a factor of 2. PMID:29651228

  11. Predicting the Kinetics of Ice Recrystallization in Aqueous Sugar Solutions.

    PubMed

    van Westen, Thijs; Groot, Robert D

    2018-04-04

    The quality of stored frozen products such as foods and biomaterials generally degrades in time due to the growth of large ice crystals by recrystallization. While there is ample experimental evidence that recrystallization within such products (or model systems thereof) is often dominated by diffusion-limited Ostwald ripening, the application of Ostwald-ripening theories to predict measured recrystallization rates has only met with limited success. For a model system of polycrystalline ice within an aqueous solution of sugars, we here show recrystallization rates can be predicted on the basis of Ostwald ripening theory, provided (1) the theory accounts for the fact the solution can be nonideal, nondilute and of different density than the crystals, (2) the effect of ice-phase volume fraction on the diffusional flux of water between crystals is accurately described, and (3) all relevant material properties (involving binary Fick diffusion coefficients, the thermodynamic factor of the solution, and the surface energy of ice) are carefully estimated. To enable calculation of material properties, we derive an alternative formulation of Ostwald ripening in terms of the Maxwell-Stefan instead of the Fick approach to diffusion. First, this leads to a cancellation of the thermodynamic factor (a measure for the nonideality of a solution), which is a notoriously difficult property to obtain. Second, we show that Maxwell-Stefan diffusion coefficients can to a reasonable approximation be related to self-diffusion coefficients, which are relatively easy to measure or predict in comparison to Fick diffusion coefficients. Our approach is validated for a binary system of water and sucrose, for which we show predicted recrystallization rates of ice compare well to experimental results, with relative deviations of at most a factor of 2.

  12. Off-Ice Anaerobic Power Does Not Predict On-Ice Repeated Shift Performance in Hockey.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Ben J; Fitzgerald, John S; Dietz, Calvin C; Ziegler, Kevin S; Baker, Sarah E; Snyder, Eric M

    2016-09-01

    Peterson, BJ, Fitzgerald, JS, Dietz, CC, Ziegler, KS, Baker, SE, and Snyder, EM. Off-ice anaerobic power does not predict on-ice repeated shift performance in hockey. J Strength Cond Res 30(9): 2375-2381, 2016-Anaerobic power is a significant predictor of acceleration and top speed in team sport athletes. Historically, these findings have been applied to ice hockey although recent research has brought their validity for this sport into question. As ice hockey emphasizes the ability to repeatedly produce power, single bout anaerobic power tests should be examined to determine their ability to predict on-ice performance. We tested whether conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests could predict on-ice acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift performance. Forty-five hockey players, aged 18-24 years, completed anthropometric, off-ice, and on-ice tests. Anthropometric and off-ice testing included height, weight, body composition, vertical jump, and Wingate tests. On-ice testing consisted of acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift fatigue tests. Vertical jump (VJ) (r = -0.42; r = -0.58), Wingate relative peak power (WRPP) (r = -0.32; r = -0.43), and relative mean power (WRMP) (r = -0.34; r = -0.48) were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) to on-ice acceleration and top speed, respectively. Conversely, none of the off-ice tests correlated with on-ice repeated shift performance, as measured by first gate, second gate, or total course fatigue; VJ (r = 0.06; r = 0.13; r = 0.09), WRPP (r = 0.06; r = 0.14; r = 0.10), or WRMP (r = -0.10; r = -0.01; r = -0.01). Although conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests predict single bout on-ice acceleration and top speed, they neither predict the repeated shift ability of the player, nor are good markers for performance in ice hockey.

  13. Early Student Support to Investigate the Role of Sea Ice-Albedo Feedback in Sea Ice Predictions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    Ice - Albedo Feedback in Sea Ice Predictions Cecilia M. Bitz Atmospheric Sciences MS351640 University of Washington Seattle, WA 98196-1640 phone...TERM GOALS The overarching goals of this project are to understand the role of sea ice - albedo feedback on sea ice predictability, to improve how... sea - ice albedo is modeled and how sea ice predictions are initialized, and then to evaluate how these improvements

  14. Improved predictions of atmospheric icing in Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engdahl, Bjørg Jenny; Nygaard, Bjørn Egil; Thompson, Gregory; Bengtsson, Lisa; Berntsen, Terje

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric icing of ground structures is a problem in cold climate locations such as Norway. During the 2013/2014 winter season two major power lines in southern Norway suffered severe damage due to ice loads exceeding their design values by two to three times. Better methods are needed to estimate the ice loads that affect various infrastructure, and better models are needed to improve the prediction of severe icing events. The Wind, Ice and Snow loads Impact on Infrastructure and the Natural Environment (WISLINE) project, was initiated to address this problem and to explore how a changing climate may affect the ice loads in Norway. Creating better forecasts of icing requires a proper simulation of supercooled liquid water (SLW). Preliminary results show that the operational numerical weather prediction model (HARMONIE-AROME) at MET-Norway generates considerably lower values of SLW as compared with the WRF model when run with the Thompson microphysics scheme. Therefore, we are piecewise implementing specific processes found in the Thompson scheme into the AROME model and testing the resulting impacts to prediction of SLW and structural icing. Both idealized and real icing cases are carried out to test the newly modified AROME microphysics scheme. Besides conventional observations, a unique set of specialized instrumentation for icing measurements are used for validation. Initial results of this investigation will be presented at the conference.

  15. Synthesis of User Needs for Arctic Sea Ice Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiggins, H. V.; Turner-Bogren, E. J.; Sheffield Guy, L.

    2017-12-01

    Forecasting Arctic sea ice on sub-seasonal to seasonal scales in a changing Arctic is of interest to a diverse range of stakeholders. However, sea ice forecasting is still challenging due to high variability in weather and ocean conditions and limits to prediction capabilities; the science needs for observations and modeling are extensive. At a time of challenged science funding, one way to prioritize sea ice prediction efforts is to examine the information needs of various stakeholder groups. This poster will present a summary and synthesis of existing surveys, reports, and other literature that examines user needs for sea ice predictions. The synthesis will include lessons learned from the Sea Ice Prediction Network (a collaborative, multi-agency-funded project focused on seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions), the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (a resource for Alaska Native subsistence hunters and coastal communities, that provides reports on weather and sea ice conditions), and other efforts. The poster will specifically compare the scales and variables of sea ice forecasts currently available, as compared to what information is requested by various user groups.

  16. Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goessling, H. F.; Tietsche, S.; Day, J. J.; Hawkins, E.; Jung, T.

    2016-02-01

    Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the "truth" disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts.

  17. Evaluation of icing drag coefficient correlations applied to iced propeller performance prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Thomas L.; Shaw, R. J.; Korkan, K. D.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation of three empirical icing drag coefficient correlations is accomplished through application to a set of propeller icing data. The various correlations represent the best means currently available for relating drag rise to various flight and atmospheric conditions for both fixed-wing and rotating airfoils, and the work presented here ilustrates and evaluates one such application of the latter case. The origins of each of the correlations are discussed, and their apparent capabilities and limitations are summarized. These correlations have been made to be an integral part of a computer code, ICEPERF, which has been designed to calculate iced propeller performance. Comparison with experimental propeller icing data shows generally good agreement, with the quality of the predicted results seen to be directly related to the radial icing extent of each case. The code's capability to properly predict thrust coefficient, power coefficient, and propeller efficiency is shown to be strongly dependent on the choice of correlation selected, as well as upon proper specificatioon of radial icing extent.

  18. Towards Improving Sea Ice Predictabiity: Evaluating Climate Models Against Satellite Sea Ice Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stroeve, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    September sea ice extent is near the long-term trend, contributions tend to be accurate. Years when the observed extent departs from the trend have proven harder to predict. Predictability skill does not appear to be more accurate for dynamical models over statistical ones, nor is there a measurable improvement in skill as the summer progresses.

  19. Sea ice roughness: the key for predicting Arctic summer ice albedo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landy, J.; Ehn, J. K.; Tsamados, M.; Stroeve, J.; Barber, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Although melt ponds on Arctic sea ice evolve in stages, ice with smoother surface topography typically allows the pond water to spread over a wider area, reducing the ice-albedo and accelerating further melt. Building on this theory, we simulated the distribution of meltwater on a range of statistically-derived topographies to develop a quantitative relationship between premelt sea ice surface roughness and summer ice albedo. Our method, previously applied to ICESat observations of the end-of-winter sea ice roughness, could account for 85% of the variance in AVHRR observations of the summer ice-albedo [Landy et al., 2015]. Consequently, an Arctic-wide reduction in sea ice roughness over the ICESat operational period (from 2003 to 2008) explained a drop in ice-albedo that resulted in a 16% increase in solar heat input to the sea ice cover. Here we will review this work and present new research linking pre-melt sea ice surface roughness observations from Cryosat-2 to summer sea ice albedo over the past six years, examining the potential of winter roughness as a significant new source of sea ice predictability. We will further evaluate the possibility for high-resolution (kilometre-scale) forecasts of summer sea ice albedo from waveform-level Cryosat-2 roughness data in the landfast sea ice zone of the Canadian Arctic. Landy, J. C., J. K. Ehn, and D. G. Barber (2015), Albedo feedback enhanced by smoother Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10,714-10,720, doi:10.1002/2015GL066712.

  20. Advancements in the LEWICE Ice Accretion Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.

    1993-01-01

    Recent evidence has shown that the NASA/Lewis Ice Accretion Model, LEWICE, does not predict accurate ice shapes for certain glaze ice conditions. This paper will present the methodology used to make a first attempt at improving the ice accretion prediction in these regimes. Importance is given to the correlations for heat transfer coefficient and ice density, as well as runback flow, selection of the transition point, flow field resolution, and droplet trajectory models. Further improvements and refinement of these modules will be performed once tests in NASA's Icing Research Tunnel, scheduled for 1993, are completed.

  1. Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bushuk, Mitchell; Msadek, Rym; Winton, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Gudgel, Rich; Rosati, Anthony; Yang, Xiaosong

    2017-05-01

    Recent Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction efforts and forecast skill assessments have primarily focused on pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE). In this work, we move toward stakeholder-relevant spatial scales, investigating the regional forecast skill of Arctic sea ice in a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) seasonal prediction system. Using a suite of retrospective initialized forecasts spanning 1981-2015 made with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land model, we show that predictions of detrended regional SIE are skillful at lead times up to 11 months. Regional prediction skill is highly region and target month dependent and generically exceeds the skill of an anomaly persistence forecast. We show for the first time that initializing the ocean subsurface in a seasonal prediction system can yield significant regional skill for winter SIE. Similarly, as suggested by previous work, we find that sea ice thickness initial conditions provide a crucial source of skill for regional summer SIE.

  2. Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice-ocean data assimilation system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakanowatari, Takuya; Inoue, Jun; Sato, Kazutoshi; Bertino, Laurent; Xie, Jiping; Matsueda, Mio; Yamagami, Akio; Sugimura, Takeshi; Yabuki, Hironori; Otsuka, Natsuhiko

    2018-06-01

    Accelerated retreat of Arctic Ocean summertime sea ice has focused attention on the potential use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), for which sea ice thickness (SIT) information is crucial for safe maritime navigation. This study evaluated the medium-range (lead time below 10 days) forecast of SIT distribution in the East Siberian Sea (ESS) in early summer (June-July) based on the TOPAZ4 ice-ocean data assimilation system. A comparison of the operational model SIT data with reliable SIT estimates (hindcast, satellite and in situ data) showed that the TOPAZ4 reanalysis qualitatively reproduces the tongue-like distribution of SIT in ESS in early summer and the seasonal variations. Pattern correlation analysis of the SIT forecast data over 3 years (2014-2016) reveals that the early summer SIT distribution is accurately predicted for a lead time of up to 3 days, but that the prediction accuracy drops abruptly after the fourth day, which is related to a dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations. For longer lead times ( > 4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which contributes to most of the remaining prediction accuracy. In July 2014, during which an ice-blocking incident occurred, relatively thick SIT ( ˜ 150 cm) was simulated over the ESS, which is consistent with the reduction in vessel speed. These results suggest that TOPAZ4 sea ice information has great potential for practical applications in summertime maritime navigation via the NSR.

  3. An Innovative Network to Improve Sea Ice Prediction in a Changing Arctic

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    sea ice volume. The EXP ensemble is initialized with 1/5 of CNTL snow depths, thus resulting in a reduced snow cover and lower summer albedo ... Sea Ice - Albedo Feedback in Sea Ice Predictions is also about understanding sea ice predictability. REFERENCES Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., K...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. An Innovative Network to Improve Sea Ice Prediction

  4. Convergence on the Prediction of Ice Particle Mass and Projected Area in Ice Clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Ice particle mass- and area-dimensional power law (henceforth m-D and A-D) relationships are building-blocks for formulating microphysical processes and optical properties in cloud and climate models, and they are critical for ice cloud remote sensing algorithms, affecting the retrieval accuracy. They can be estimated by (1) directly measuring the sizes, masses and areas of individual ice particles at ground-level and (2) using aircraft probes to simultaneously measure the ice water content (IWC) and ice particle size distribution. A third indirect method is to use observations from method 1 to develop an m-A relationship representing mean conditions in ice clouds. Owing to a tighter correlation (relative to m-D data), this m-A relationship can be used to estimate m from aircraft probe measurements of A. This has the advantage of estimating m at small sizes, down to 10 μm using the 2D-Sterio probe. In this way, 2D-S measurements of maximum dimension D can be related to corresponding estimates of m to develop ice cloud type and temperature dependent m-D expressions. However, these expressions are no longer linear in log-log space, but are slowly varying curves covering most of the size range of natural ice particles. This work compares all three of the above methods and demonstrates close agreement between them. Regarding (1), 4869 ice particles and corresponding melted hemispheres were measured during a field campaign to obtain D and m. Selecting only those unrimed habits that formed between -20°C and -40°C, the mean mass values for selected size intervals are within 35% of the corresponding masses predicted by the Method 3 curve based on a similar temperature range. Moreover, the most recent m-D expression based on Method 2 differs by no more than 50% with the m-D curve from Method 3. Method 3 appears to be the most accurate over the observed ice particle size range (10-4000 μm). An m-D/A-D scheme was developed by which self-consistent m-D and A-D power laws

  5. Predictive model for ice formation on superhydrophobic surfaces.

    PubMed

    Bahadur, Vaibhav; Mishchenko, Lidiya; Hatton, Benjamin; Taylor, J Ashley; Aizenberg, Joanna; Krupenkin, Tom

    2011-12-06

    The prevention and control of ice accumulation has important applications in aviation, building construction, and energy conversion devices. One area of active research concerns the use of superhydrophobic surfaces for preventing ice formation. The present work develops a physics-based modeling framework to predict ice formation on cooled superhydrophobic surfaces resulting from the impact of supercooled water droplets. This modeling approach analyzes the multiple phenomena influencing ice formation on superhydrophobic surfaces through the development of submodels describing droplet impact dynamics, heat transfer, and heterogeneous ice nucleation. These models are then integrated together to achieve a comprehensive understanding of ice formation upon impact of liquid droplets at freezing conditions. The accuracy of this model is validated by its successful prediction of the experimental findings that demonstrate that superhydrophobic surfaces can fully prevent the freezing of impacting water droplets down to surface temperatures of as low as -20 to -25 °C. The model can be used to study the influence of surface morphology, surface chemistry, and fluid and thermal properties on dynamic ice formation and identify parameters critical to achieving icephobic surfaces. The framework of the present work is the first detailed modeling tool developed for the design and analysis of surfaces for various ice prevention/reduction strategies. © 2011 American Chemical Society

  6. Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tietsche, S.; Day, J. J.; Guemas, V.; Hurlin, W. J.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Collins, M.; Hawkins, E.

    2014-02-01

    We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

  7. Multivariable Time Series Prediction for the Icing Process on Overhead Power Transmission Line

    PubMed Central

    Li, Peng; Zhao, Na; Zhou, Donghua; Cao, Min; Li, Jingjie; Shi, Xinling

    2014-01-01

    The design of monitoring and predictive alarm systems is necessary for successful overhead power transmission line icing. Given the characteristics of complexity, nonlinearity, and fitfulness in the line icing process, a model based on a multivariable time series is presented here to predict the icing load of a transmission line. In this model, the time effects of micrometeorology parameters for the icing process have been analyzed. The phase-space reconstruction theory and machine learning method were then applied to establish the prediction model, which fully utilized the history of multivariable time series data in local monitoring systems to represent the mapping relationship between icing load and micrometeorology factors. Relevant to the characteristic of fitfulness in line icing, the simulations were carried out during the same icing process or different process to test the model's prediction precision and robustness. According to the simulation results for the Tao-Luo-Xiong Transmission Line, this model demonstrates a good accuracy of prediction in different process, if the prediction length is less than two hours, and would be helpful for power grid departments when deciding to take action in advance to address potential icing disasters. PMID:25136653

  8. Multiple Off-Ice Performance Variables Predict On-Ice Skating Performance in Male and Female Division III Ice Hockey Players.

    PubMed

    Janot, Jeffrey M; Beltz, Nicholas M; Dalleck, Lance D

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if off-ice performance variables could predict on-ice skating performance in Division III collegiate hockey players. Both men (n = 15) and women (n = 11) hockey players (age = 20.5 ± 1.4 years) participated in the study. The skating tests were agility cornering S-turn, 6.10 m acceleration, 44.80 m speed, modified repeat skate, and 15.20 m full speed. Off-ice variables assessed were years of playing experience, height, weight and percent body fat and off-ice performance variables included vertical jump (VJ), 40-yd dash (36.58m), 1-RM squat, pro-agility, Wingate peak power and peak power percentage drop (% drop), and 1.5 mile (2.4km) run. Results indicated that 40-yd dash (36.58m), VJ, 1.5 mile (2.4km) run, and % drop were significant predictors of skating performance for repeat skate (slowest, fastest, and average time) and 44.80 m speed time, respectively. Four predictive equations were derived from multiple regression analyses: 1) slowest repeat skate time = 2.362 + (1.68 x 40-yd dash time) + (0.005 x 1.5 mile run), 2) fastest repeat skate time = 9.762 - (0.089 x VJ) - (0.998 x 40-yd dash time), 3) average repeat skate time = 7.770 + (1.041 x 40-yd dash time) - (0.63 x VJ) + (0.003 x 1.5 mile time), and 4) 47.85 m speed test = 7.707 - (0.050 x VJ) - (0.01 x % drop). It was concluded that selected off-ice tests could be used to predict on-ice performance regarding speed and recovery ability in Division III male and female hockey players. Key pointsThe 40-yd dash (36.58m) and vertical jump tests are significant predictors of on-ice skating performance specific to speed.In addition to 40-yd dash and vertical jump, the 1.5 mile (2.4km) run for time and percent power drop from the Wingate anaerobic power test were also significant predictors of skating performance that incorporates the aspect of recovery from skating activity.Due to the specificity of selected off-ice variables as predictors of on-ice performance, coaches can

  9. Multiple Off-Ice Performance Variables Predict On-Ice Skating Performance in Male and Female Division III Ice Hockey Players

    PubMed Central

    Janot, Jeffrey M.; Beltz, Nicholas M.; Dalleck, Lance D.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if off-ice performance variables could predict on-ice skating performance in Division III collegiate hockey players. Both men (n = 15) and women (n = 11) hockey players (age = 20.5 ± 1.4 years) participated in the study. The skating tests were agility cornering S-turn, 6.10 m acceleration, 44.80 m speed, modified repeat skate, and 15.20 m full speed. Off-ice variables assessed were years of playing experience, height, weight and percent body fat and off-ice performance variables included vertical jump (VJ), 40-yd dash (36.58m), 1-RM squat, pro-agility, Wingate peak power and peak power percentage drop (% drop), and 1.5 mile (2.4km) run. Results indicated that 40-yd dash (36.58m), VJ, 1.5 mile (2.4km) run, and % drop were significant predictors of skating performance for repeat skate (slowest, fastest, and average time) and 44.80 m speed time, respectively. Four predictive equations were derived from multiple regression analyses: 1) slowest repeat skate time = 2.362 + (1.68 x 40-yd dash time) + (0.005 x 1.5 mile run), 2) fastest repeat skate time = 9.762 - (0.089 x VJ) - (0.998 x 40-yd dash time), 3) average repeat skate time = 7.770 + (1.041 x 40-yd dash time) - (0.63 x VJ) + (0.003 x 1.5 mile time), and 4) 47.85 m speed test = 7.707 - (0.050 x VJ) - (0.01 x % drop). It was concluded that selected off-ice tests could be used to predict on-ice performance regarding speed and recovery ability in Division III male and female hockey players. Key points The 40-yd dash (36.58m) and vertical jump tests are significant predictors of on-ice skating performance specific to speed. In addition to 40-yd dash and vertical jump, the 1.5 mile (2.4km) run for time and percent power drop from the Wingate anaerobic power test were also significant predictors of skating performance that incorporates the aspect of recovery from skating activity. Due to the specificity of selected off-ice variables as predictors of on-ice performance, coaches

  10. On The Importance of Connecting Laboratory Measurements of Ice Crystal Growth with Model Parameterizations: Predicting Ice Particle Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrington, J. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Parameterizing the growth of ice particles in numerical models is at an interesting cross-roads. Most parameterizations developed in the past, including some that I have developed, parse model ice into numerous categories based primarily on the growth mode of the particle. Models routinely possess smaller ice, snow crystals, aggregates, graupel, and hail. The snow and ice categories in some models are further split into subcategories to account for the various shapes of ice. There has been a relatively recent shift towards a new class of microphysical models that predict the properties of ice particles instead of using multiple categories and subcategories. Particle property models predict the physical characteristics of ice, such as aspect ratio, maximum dimension, effective density, rime density, effective area, and so forth. These models are attractive in the sense that particle characteristics evolve naturally in time and space without the need for numerous (and somewhat artificial) transitions among pre-defined classes. However, particle property models often require fundamental parameters that are typically derived from laboratory measurements. For instance, the evolution of particle shape during vapor depositional growth requires knowledge of the growth efficiencies for the various axis of the crystals, which in turn depends on surface parameters that can only be determined in the laboratory. The evolution of particle shapes and density during riming, aggregation, and melting require data on the redistribution of mass across a crystals axis as that crystal collects water drops, ice crystals, or melts. Predicting the evolution of particle properties based on laboratory-determined parameters has a substantial influence on the evolution of some cloud systems. Radiatively-driven cirrus clouds show a broader range of competition between heterogeneous nucleation and homogeneous freezing when ice crystal properties are predicted. Even strongly convective squall

  11. The Influence of Viscous Effects on Ice Accretion Prediction and Airfoil Performance Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreeger, Richard E.; Wright, William B.

    2005-01-01

    A computational study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of using a viscous flow solution in an ice accretion code and the resulting accuracy of aerodynamic performance prediction. Ice shapes were obtained for one single-element and one multi-element airfoil using both potential flow and Navier-Stokes flowfields in the LEWICE ice accretion code. Aerodynamics were then calculated using a Navier-Stokes flow solver.

  12. Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, Chao-Yuan; Liu, Jiping (Inventor); Hu, Yongyun; Horton, Radley M.; Chen, Liqi; Cheng, Xiao

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multimodel spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3-7 years), but there is a reemerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6-8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

  13. Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Merryfield, William; Ambadan, Jaison T.; Berg, Aaron; Bichet, Adéline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan; Haas, Christian; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Frédéric; McCusker, Kelly; Sigmond, Michael; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Tandon, Neil F.; Thackeray, Chad; Tremblay, Bruno; Zwiers, Francis W.

    2018-04-01

    use in operational seasonal prediction and for generating large ensembles of multidecadal simulations. Improvements in climate-prediction systems like CanSIPS rely not just on simulation quality but also on using novel observational constraints and the ready transfer of research to an operational setting. Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time.

  14. Explicit simulation of ice particle habits in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashino, Tempei

    2007-05-01

    This study developed a scheme for explicit simulation of ice particle habits in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models. The scheme is called Spectral Ice Habit Prediction System (SHIPS), and the goal is to retain growth history of ice particles in the Eulerian dynamics framework. It diagnoses characteristics of ice particles based on a series of particle property variables (PPVs) that reflect history of microphysieal processes and the transport between mass bins and air parcels in space. Therefore, categorization of ice particles typically used in bulk microphysical parameterization and traditional bin models is not necessary, so that errors that stem from the categorization can be avoided. SHIPS predicts polycrystals as well as hexagonal monocrystals based on empirically derived habit frequency and growth rate, and simulates the habit-dependent aggregation and riming processes by use of the stochastic collection equation with predicted PPVs. Idealized two dimensional simulations were performed with SHIPS in a NWP model. The predicted spatial distribution of ice particle habits and types, and evolution of particle size distributions showed good quantitative agreement with observation This comprehensive model of ice particle properties, distributions, and evolution in clouds can be used to better understand problems facing wide range of research disciplines, including microphysics processes, radiative transfer in a cloudy atmosphere, data assimilation, and weather modification.

  15. Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark

    This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments inmore » which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.« less

  16. A method of predicting flow rates required to achieve anti-icing performance with a porous leading edge ice protection system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kohlman, D. L.; Albright, A. E.

    1983-01-01

    An analytical method was developed for predicting minimum flow rates required to provide anti-ice protection with a porous leading edge fluid ice protection system. The predicted flow rates compare with an average error of less than 10 percent to six experimentally determined flow rates from tests in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel on a general aviation wing section.

  17. Comparison of Aircraft Icing Growth Assessment Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William; Potapczuk, Mark G.; Levinson, Laurie H.

    2011-01-01

    A research project is underway to produce computer software that can accurately predict ice growth under any meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. An extensive comparison of the results in a quantifiable manner against the database of ice shapes that have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) has been performed, including additional data taken to extend the database in the Super-cooled Large Drop (SLD) regime. The project shows the differences in ice shape between LEWICE 3.2.2, GlennICE, and experimental data. The project addresses the validation of the software against a recent set of ice-shape data in the SLD regime. This validation effort mirrors a similar effort undertaken for previous validations of LEWICE. Those reports quantified the ice accretion prediction capabilities of the LEWICE software. Several ice geometry features were proposed for comparing ice shapes in a quantitative manner. The resulting analysis showed that LEWICE compared well to the available experimental data.

  18. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

    PubMed

    Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

    2017-06-06

    Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

  19. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

    PubMed Central

    Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

    2017-01-01

    Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373

  20. How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika M.; Hall, David M.

    2016-09-01

    Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice-free summer Arctic is inevitable? Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years. Common metrics of the past and present mean sea ice state (such as ice extent, volume, and thickness) as well as global mean temperatures do not allow a reduction of the prediction uncertainty from internal variability.

  1. The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland Ice Sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB), a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation, Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

  2. Impact of the initialisation on the predictability of the Southern Ocean sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    In this study, we assess systematically the impact of different initialisation procedures on the predictability of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. These initialisation strategies are based on three data assimilation methods: the nudging, the particle filter with sequential importance resampling and the nudging proposal particle filter. An Earth system model of intermediate complexity is used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictability of the Antarctic sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales is estimated through two aspects: the spread of the hindcast ensemble, indicating the uncertainty of the ensemble, and the correlation between the ensemble mean and the pseudo-observations, used to assess the accuracy of the prediction. Our results show that at decadal timescales more sophisticated data assimilation methods as well as denser pseudo-observations used to initialise the hindcasts decrease the spread of the ensemble. However, our experiments did not clearly demonstrate that one of the initialisation methods systematically provides with a more accurate prediction of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean than the others. Overall, the predictability at interannual timescales is limited to 3 years ahead at most. At multi-decadal timescales, the trends in sea ice extent computed over the time period just after the initialisation are clearly better correlated between the hindcasts and the pseudo-observations if the initialisation takes into account the pseudo-observations. The correlation reaches values larger than 0.5 in winter. This high correlation has likely its origin in the slow evolution of the ocean ensured by its strong thermal inertia, showing the importance of the quality of the initialisation below the sea ice.

  3. Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

    2016-04-01

    Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

  4. Statistical Prediction of Sea Ice Concentration over Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jongho; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kim, Baek-Min

    2017-04-01

    In this study, a statistical method that predict sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Arctic is developed. We first calculate the Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Functions (S-EOFs) of monthly Arctic SIC from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data, which contain the seasonal cycles (12 months long) of dominant SIC anomaly patterns. Then, the current SIC state index is determined by projecting observed SIC anomalies for latest 12 months to the S-EOFs. Assuming the current SIC anomalies follow the spatio-temporal evolution in the S-EOFs, we project the future (upto 12 months) SIC anomalies by multiplying the SI and the corresponding S-EOF and then taking summation. The predictive skill is assessed by hindcast experiments initialized at all the months for 1980-2010. When comparing predictive skill of SIC predicted by statistical model and NCEP CFS v2, the statistical model shows a higher skill in predicting sea ice concentration and extent.

  5. Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves.

    PubMed

    Pritchard, H D; Ligtenberg, S R M; Fricker, H A; Vaughan, D G; van den Broeke, M R; Padman, L

    2012-04-25

    Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.

  6. Application of a High-Fidelity Icing Analysis Method to a Model-Scale Rotor in Forward Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Narducci, Robert; Orr, Stanley; Kreeger, Richard E.

    2012-01-01

    An icing analysis process involving the loose coupling of OVERFLOW-RCAS for rotor performance prediction and with LEWICE3D for thermal analysis and ice accretion is applied to a model-scale rotor for validation. The process offers high-fidelity rotor analysis for the noniced and iced rotor performance evaluation that accounts for the interaction of nonlinear aerodynamics with blade elastic deformations. Ice accumulation prediction also involves loosely coupled data exchanges between OVERFLOW and LEWICE3D to produce accurate ice shapes. Validation of the process uses data collected in the 1993 icing test involving Sikorsky's Powered Force Model. Non-iced and iced rotor performance predictions are compared to experimental measurements as are predicted ice shapes.

  7. Many-Body Interactions in Ice

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Pham, C. Huy; Reddy, Sandeep K.; Chen, Karl

    Many-body effects in ice are investigated through a systematic analysis of the lattice energies of several proton ordered and disordered phases, which are calculated with different flexible water models, ranging from pairwise additive (q-TIP4P/F) to polarizable (TTM3-F and AMOE-BA BA) and explicit many-body (MB-pol) potential energy functions. Comparisons with available experimental and diffusion Monte Carlo data emphasize the importance of an accurate description of the individual terms of the many-body expansion of the interaction energy between water molecules for the correct prediction of the energy ordering of the ice phases. Further analysis of the MB-pol results, in terms of fundamentalmore » energy contributions, demonstrates that the differences in lattice energies between different ice phases are sensitively dependent on the subtle balance between short-range two-body and three-body interactions, many-body induction, and dispersion energy. Here, by correctly reproducing many-body effects at both short range and long range, it is found that MB-pol accurately predicts the energetics of different ice phases, which provides further support for the accuracy of MB-pol in representing the properties of water from the gas to the condensed phase.« less

  8. Many-Body Interactions in Ice

    DOE PAGES

    Pham, C. Huy; Reddy, Sandeep K.; Chen, Karl; ...

    2017-02-28

    Many-body effects in ice are investigated through a systematic analysis of the lattice energies of several proton ordered and disordered phases, which are calculated with different flexible water models, ranging from pairwise additive (q-TIP4P/F) to polarizable (TTM3-F and AMOE-BA BA) and explicit many-body (MB-pol) potential energy functions. Comparisons with available experimental and diffusion Monte Carlo data emphasize the importance of an accurate description of the individual terms of the many-body expansion of the interaction energy between water molecules for the correct prediction of the energy ordering of the ice phases. Further analysis of the MB-pol results, in terms of fundamentalmore » energy contributions, demonstrates that the differences in lattice energies between different ice phases are sensitively dependent on the subtle balance between short-range two-body and three-body interactions, many-body induction, and dispersion energy. Here, by correctly reproducing many-body effects at both short range and long range, it is found that MB-pol accurately predicts the energetics of different ice phases, which provides further support for the accuracy of MB-pol in representing the properties of water from the gas to the condensed phase.« less

  9. Data-Driven Modeling and Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kondrashov, Dmitri; Chekroun, Mickael; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    We present results of data-driven predictive analyses of sea ice over the main Arctic regions. Our approach relies on the Multilayer Stochastic Modeling (MSM) framework of Kondrashov, Chekroun and Ghil [Physica D, 2015] and it leads to probabilistic prognostic models of sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies on seasonal time scales. This approach is applied to monthly time series of state-of-the-art data-adaptive decompositions of SIC and selected climate variables over the Arctic. We evaluate the predictive skill of MSM models by performing retrospective forecasts with "no-look ahead" for up to 6-months ahead. It will be shown in particular that the memory effects included intrinsically in the formulation of our non-Markovian MSM models allow for improvements of the prediction skill of large-amplitude SIC anomalies in certain Arctic regions on the one hand, and of September Sea Ice Extent, on the other. Further improvements allowed by the MSM framework will adopt a nonlinear formulation and explore next-generation data-adaptive decompositions, namely modification of Principal Oscillation Patterns (POPs) and rotated Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA).

  10. September Arctic Sea Ice minimum prediction - a new skillful statistical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Grosfeld, Klaus; Scholz, Patrick; Treffeisen, Renate; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2017-04-01

    Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability is complex and it depends on various climate and oceanic parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal of sea ice evolution, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and different atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September Sea ice extent (SSIE) on monthly time scale. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of SSIE show a relatively reduced skill, we show here that more than 92% (r = 0.96) of the September sea ice extent can be predicted at the end of May by using previous months' climate and oceanic conditions. The skill of the model increases with a decrease in the time lag used for the forecast. At the end of August, our predictions are even able to explain 99% of the SSIE. Our statistical model captures both the general trend as well as the interannual variability of the SSIE. Moreover, it is able to properly forecast the years with extreme high/low SSIE (e.g. 1996/ 2007, 2012, 2013). Besides its forecast skill for SSIE, the model could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

  11. Prediction of ice accretion on a swept NACA 0012 airfoil and comparisons to flight test results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reehorst, Andrew L.

    1992-01-01

    In the winter of 1989-90, an icing research flight project was conducted to obtain swept wing ice accretion data. Utilizing the NASA Lewis Research Center's DHC-6 DeHavilland Twin Otter aircraft, research flights were made into known icing conditions in Northeastern Ohio. The icing cloud environment and aircraft flight data were measured and recorded by an onboard data acquisition system. Upon entry into the icing environment, a 24 inch span, 15 inch chord NACA 0012 airfoil was extended from the aircraft and set to the desired sweep angle. After the growth of a well defined ice shape, the airfoil was retracted into the aircraft cabin for ice shape documentation. The ice accretions were recorded by ice tracings and photographs. Ice accretions were mostly of the glaze type and exhibited scalloping. The ice was accreted at sweep angles of 0, 30, and 45 degrees. A 3-D ice accretion prediction code was used to predict ice profiles for five selected flight test runs, which include sweep angle of zero, 30, and 45 degrees. The code's roughness input parameter was adjusted for best agreement. A simple procedure was added to the code to account for 3-D ice scalloping effects. The predicted ice profiles are compared to their respective flight test counterparts. This is the first attempt to predict ice profiles on swept wings with significant scalloped ice formations.

  12. Greenland ice sheet retreat since the Little Ice Age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beitch, Marci J.

    Late 20th century and 21st century satellite imagery of the perimeter of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) provide high resolution observations of the ice sheet margins. Examining changes in ice margin positions over time yield measurements of GrIS area change and rates of margin retreat. However, longer records of ice sheet margin change are needed to establish more accurate predictions of the ice sheet's future response to global conditions. In this study, the trimzone, the area of deglaciated terrain along the ice sheet edge that lacks mature vegetation cover, is used as a marker of the maximum extent of the ice from its most recent major advance during the Little Ice Age. We compile recently acquired Landsat ETM+ scenes covering the perimeter of the GrIS on which we map area loss on land-, lake-, and marine-terminating margins. We measure an area loss of 13,327 +/- 830 km2, which corresponds to 0.8% shrinkage of the ice sheet. This equates to an averaged horizontal retreat of 363 +/- 69 m across the entire GrIS margin. Mapping the areas exposed since the Little Ice Age maximum, circa 1900 C.E., yields a century-scale rate of change. On average the ice sheet lost an area of 120 +/- 16 km 2/yr, or retreated at a rate of 3.3 +/- 0.7 m/yr since the LIA maximum.

  13. Regional Arctic sea-ice prediction: potential versus operational seasonal forecast skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bushuk, Mitchell; Msadek, Rym; Winton, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel; Yang, Xiaosong; Rosati, Anthony; Gudgel, Rich

    2018-06-01

    Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice on regional spatial scales are a pressing need for a broad group of stakeholders, however, most assessments of predictability and forecast skill to date have focused on pan-Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE). In this work, we present the first direct comparison of perfect model (PM) and operational (OP) seasonal prediction skill for regional Arctic SIE within a common dynamical prediction system. This assessment is based on two complementary suites of seasonal prediction ensemble experiments performed with a global coupled climate model. First, we present a suite of PM predictability experiments with start dates spanning the calendar year, which are used to quantify the potential regional SIE prediction skill of this system. Second, we assess the system's OP prediction skill for detrended regional SIE using a suite of retrospective initialized seasonal forecasts spanning 1981-2016. In nearly all Arctic regions and for all target months, we find a substantial skill gap between PM and OP predictions of regional SIE. The PM experiments reveal that regional winter SIE is potentially predictable at lead times beyond 12 months, substantially longer than the skill of their OP counterparts. Both the OP and PM predictions display a spring prediction skill barrier for regional summer SIE forecasts, indicating a fundamental predictability limit for summer regional predictions. We find that a similar barrier exists for pan-Arctic sea-ice volume predictions, but is not present for predictions of pan-Arctic SIE. The skill gap identified in this work indicates a promising potential for future improvements in regional SIE predictions.

  14. Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melia, N.; Haines, K.; Hawkins, E.; Day, J. J.

    2017-08-01

    The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of ‘perfect model’ experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts show lower skill before a May ‘predictability barrier’. We demonstrate that in forecasts started from January, predictions of route opening date are twice as uncertain as predicting the closing date and that the Arctic shipping season is becoming longer due to climate change, with later closing dates mostly responsible. We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than medium ice years. Forecasting the fastest open water route through the Arctic is accurate to within 200 km when predicted from July, a six-fold increase in accuracy compared to forecasts initialised from the previous November, which are typically no better than climatology. Finally we find that initialisation of accurate summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts, further motivating investment into sea-ice thickness observations, climate models, and assimilation systems.

  15. Explicit prediction of ice clouds in general circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, Martin

    1999-11-01

    Although clouds play extremely important roles in the radiation budget and hydrological cycle of the Earth, there are large quantitative uncertainties in our understanding of their generation, maintenance and decay mechanisms, representing major obstacles in the development of reliable prognostic cloud water schemes for General Circulation Models (GCMs). Recognizing their relative neglect in the past, both observationally and theoretically, this work places special focus on ice clouds. A recent version of the UCLA - University of Utah Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) that includes interactive radiation is used to perform idealized experiments to study ice cloud maintenance and decay mechanisms under various conditions in term of: (1) background static stability, (2) background relative humidity, (3) rate of cloud ice addition over a fixed initial time-period and (4) radiation: daytime, nighttime and no-radiation. Radiation is found to have major effects on the life-time of layer-clouds. Optically thick ice clouds decay significantly slower than expected from pure microphysical crystal fall-out (taucld = 0.9--1.4 h as opposed to no-motion taumicro = 0.5--0.7 h). This is explained by the upward turbulent fluxes of water induced by IR destabilization, which partially balance the downward transport of water by snowfall. Solar radiation further slows the ice-water decay by destruction of the inversion above cloud-top and the resulting upward transport of water. Optically thin ice clouds, on the other hand, may exhibit even longer life-times (>1 day) in the presence of radiational cooling. The resulting saturation mixing ratio reduction provides for a constant cloud ice source. These CRM results are used to develop a prognostic cloud water scheme for the UCLA-GCM. The framework is based on the bulk water phase model of Ose (1993). The model predicts cloud liquid water and cloud ice separately, and which is extended to split the ice phase into suspended cloud ice (predicted

  16. The CONCEPTS Global Ice-Ocean Prediction System: Establishing an Environmental Prediction Capability in Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pellerin, Pierre; Smith, Gregory; Testut, Charles-Emmanuel; Surcel Colan, Dorina; Roy, Francois; Reszka, Mateusz; Dupont, Frederic; Lemieux, Jean-Francois; Beaudoin, Christiane; He, Zhongjie; Belanger, Jean-Marc; Deacu, Daniel; Lu, Yimin; Buehner, Mark; Davidson, Fraser; Ritchie, Harold; Lu, Youyu; Drevillon, Marie; Tranchant, Benoit; Garric, Gilles

    2015-04-01

    Here we describe a new system implemented recently at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) entitled the Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS). GIOPS provides ice and ocean analyses and 10 day forecasts daily at 00GMT on a global 1/4° resolution grid. GIOPS includes a full multivariate ocean data assimilation system that combines satellite observations of sea level anomaly and sea surface temperature (SST) together with in situ observations of temperature and salinity. In situ observations are obtained from a variety of sources including: the Argo network of autonomous profiling floats, moorings, ships of opportunity, marine mammals and research cruises. Ocean analyses are blended with sea ice analyses produced by the Global Ice Analysis System.. GIOPS has been developed as part of the Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems (CONCEPTS) tri-departmental initiative between Environment Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada and National Defense. The development of GIOPS was made through a partnership with Mercator-Océan, a French operational oceanography group. Mercator-Océan provided the ocean data assimilation code and assistance with the system implementation. GIOPS has undergone a rigorous evaluation of the analysis, trial and forecast fields demonstrating its capacity to provide high-quality products in a robust and reliable framework. In particular, SST and ice concentration forecasts demonstrate a clear benefit with respect to persistence. These results support the use of GIOPS products within other CMC operational systems, and more generally, as part of a Government of Canada marine core service. Impact of a two-way coupling between the GEM atmospheric model and NEMO-CICE ocean-ice model will also be presented.

  17. Predicting Clear-Sky Reflectance Over Snow/Ice in Polar Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Yan; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Arduini, Robert F.; Hong, Gang; Minnis, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Satellite remote sensing of clouds requires an accurate estimate of the clear-sky radiances for a given scene to detect clouds and aerosols and to retrieve their microphysical properties. Knowing the spatial and angular variability of clear-sky albedo is essential for predicting clear-sky radiance at solar wavelengths. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Project uses the nearinfrared (NIR; 1.24, 1.6 or 2.13 micrometers), visible (VIS; 0.63 micrometers) and vegetation (VEG; 0.86 micrometers) channels available on the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to help identify clouds and retrieve their properties in both snow-free and snow-covered conditions. Thus, it is critical to have reliable distributions of clear-sky albedo for all of these channels. In CERES Edition 4 (Ed4), the 1.24-micrometer channel is used to retrieve cloud optical depth over snow/ice-covered surfaces. Thus, it is especially critical to accurately predict the 1.24-micrometer clear-sky albedo alpha and reflectance rho for a given location and time. Snow albedo and reflectance patterns are very complex due to surface texture, particle shapes and sizes, melt water, and vegetation protrusions from the snow surface. To minimize those effects, this study focuses on the permanent snow cover of Antarctica where vegetation is absent and melt water is minimal. Clear-sky albedos are determined as a function of solar zenith angle (SZA) from observations over all scenes determined to be cloud-free to produce a normalized directional albedo model (DRM). The DRM is used to develop alpha(SZA=0 degrees) on 10 foot grid for each season. These values provide the basis for predicting r at any location and set of viewing & illumination conditions. This paper examines the accuracy of this approach for two theoretical snow surface reflectance models.

  18. Data-driven Analysis and Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kondrashov, D. A.; Chekroun, M.; Ghil, M.; Yuan, X.; Ting, M.

    2015-12-01

    We present results of data-driven predictive analyses of sea ice over the main Arctic regions. Our approach relies on the Multilayer Stochastic Modeling (MSM) framework of Kondrashov, Chekroun and Ghil [Physica D, 2015] and it leads to prognostic models of sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies on seasonal time scales.This approach is applied to monthly time series of leading principal components from the multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function decomposition of SIC and selected climate variables over the Arctic. We evaluate the predictive skill of MSM models by performing retrospective forecasts with "no-look ahead" forup to 6-months ahead. It will be shown in particular that the memory effects included in our non-Markovian linear MSM models improve predictions of large-amplitude SIC anomalies in certain Arctic regions. Furtherimprovements allowed by the MSM framework will adopt a nonlinear formulation, as well as alternative data-adaptive decompositions.

  19. Data-adaptive Harmonic Decomposition and Real-time Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kondrashov, Dmitri; Chekroun, Mickael; Ghil, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Decline in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has profound socio-economic implications and is a focus of active scientific research. Of particular interest is prediction of SIE on subseasonal time scales, i.e. from early summer into fall, when sea ice coverage in Arctic reaches its minimum. However, subseasonal forecasting of SIE is very challenging due to the high variability of ocean and atmosphere over Arctic in summer, as well as shortness of observational data and inadequacies of the physics-based models to simulate sea-ice dynamics. The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) by Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN, http://www.arcus.org/sipn) is a collaborative effort to facilitate and improve subseasonal prediction of September SIE by physics-based and data-driven statistical models. Data-adaptive Harmonic Decomposition (DAH) and Multilayer Stuart-Landau Models (MSLM) techniques [Chekroun and Kondrashov, 2017], have been successfully applied to the nonlinear stochastic modeling, as well as retrospective and real-time forecasting of Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) dataset in key four Arctic regions. In particular, DAH-MSLM predictions outperformed most statistical models and physics-based models in real-time 2016 SIO submissions. The key success factors are associated with DAH ability to disentangle complex regional dynamics of MASIE by data-adaptive harmonic spatio-temporal patterns that reduce the data-driven modeling effort to elemental MSLMs stacked per frequency with fixed and small number of model coefficients to estimate.

  20. The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic.

    PubMed

    Serreze, Mark C; Meier, Walter N

    2018-05-28

    As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7-10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

  1. Role of stacking disorder in ice nucleation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lupi, Laura; Hudait, Arpa; Peters, Baron; Grünwald, Michael; Gotchy Mullen, Ryan; Nguyen, Andrew H.; Molinero, Valeria

    2017-11-01

    The freezing of water affects the processes that determine Earth’s climate. Therefore, accurate weather and climate forecasts hinge on good predictions of ice nucleation rates. Such rate predictions are based on extrapolations using classical nucleation theory, which assumes that the structure of nanometre-sized ice crystallites corresponds to that of hexagonal ice, the thermodynamically stable form of bulk ice. However, simulations with various water models find that ice nucleated and grown under atmospheric temperatures is at all sizes stacking-disordered, consisting of random sequences of cubic and hexagonal ice layers. This implies that stacking-disordered ice crystallites either are more stable than hexagonal ice crystallites or form because of non-equilibrium dynamical effects. Both scenarios challenge central tenets of classical nucleation theory. Here we use rare-event sampling and free energy calculations with the mW water model to show that the entropy of mixing cubic and hexagonal layers makes stacking-disordered ice the stable phase for crystallites up to a size of at least 100,000 molecules. We find that stacking-disordered critical crystallites at 230 kelvin are about 14 kilojoules per mole of crystallite more stable than hexagonal crystallites, making their ice nucleation rates more than three orders of magnitude higher than predicted by classical nucleation theory. This effect on nucleation rates is temperature dependent, being the most pronounced at the warmest conditions, and should affect the modelling of cloud formation and ice particle numbers, which are very sensitive to the temperature dependence of ice nucleation rates. We conclude that classical nucleation theory needs to be corrected to include the dependence of the crystallization driving force on the size of the ice crystallite when interpreting and extrapolating ice nucleation rates from experimental laboratory conditions to the temperatures that occur in clouds.

  2. Role of stacking disorder in ice nucleation.

    PubMed

    Lupi, Laura; Hudait, Arpa; Peters, Baron; Grünwald, Michael; Gotchy Mullen, Ryan; Nguyen, Andrew H; Molinero, Valeria

    2017-11-08

    The freezing of water affects the processes that determine Earth's climate. Therefore, accurate weather and climate forecasts hinge on good predictions of ice nucleation rates. Such rate predictions are based on extrapolations using classical nucleation theory, which assumes that the structure of nanometre-sized ice crystallites corresponds to that of hexagonal ice, the thermodynamically stable form of bulk ice. However, simulations with various water models find that ice nucleated and grown under atmospheric temperatures is at all sizes stacking-disordered, consisting of random sequences of cubic and hexagonal ice layers. This implies that stacking-disordered ice crystallites either are more stable than hexagonal ice crystallites or form because of non-equilibrium dynamical effects. Both scenarios challenge central tenets of classical nucleation theory. Here we use rare-event sampling and free energy calculations with the mW water model to show that the entropy of mixing cubic and hexagonal layers makes stacking-disordered ice the stable phase for crystallites up to a size of at least 100,000 molecules. We find that stacking-disordered critical crystallites at 230 kelvin are about 14 kilojoules per mole of crystallite more stable than hexagonal crystallites, making their ice nucleation rates more than three orders of magnitude higher than predicted by classical nucleation theory. This effect on nucleation rates is temperature dependent, being the most pronounced at the warmest conditions, and should affect the modelling of cloud formation and ice particle numbers, which are very sensitive to the temperature dependence of ice nucleation rates. We conclude that classical nucleation theory needs to be corrected to include the dependence of the crystallization driving force on the size of the ice crystallite when interpreting and extrapolating ice nucleation rates from experimental laboratory conditions to the temperatures that occur in clouds.

  3. Hydrograph Predictions of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From an Ice-Dammed Lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCoy, S. W.; Jacquet, J.; McGrath, D.; Koschitzki, R.; Okuinghttons, J.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the time evolution of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and ultimately predicting peak discharge, is crucial to mitigating the impacts of GLOFs on downstream communities and understanding concomitant surface change. The dearth of in situ measurements taken during GLOFs has left many GLOF models currently in use untested. Here we present a dataset of 13 GLOFs from Lago Cachet Dos, Aysen Region, Chile in which we detail measurements of key environmental variables (total volume drained, lake temperature, and lake inflow rate) and high temporal resolution discharge measurements at the source lake, in addition to well-constrained ice thickness and bedrock topography. Using this dataset we test two common empirical equations as well as the physically-based model of Spring-Hutter-Clarke. We find that the commonly used empirical relationships based solely on a dataset of lake volume drained fail to predict the large variability in observed peak discharges from Lago Cachet Dos. This disagreement is likely because these equations do not consider additional environmental variables that we show also control peak discharge, primarily, lake water temperature and the rate of meltwater inflow to the source lake. We find that the Spring-Hutter-Clarke model can accurately simulate the exponentially rising hydrographs that are characteristic of ice-dammed GLOFs, as well as the order of magnitude variation in peak discharge between events if the hydraulic roughness parameter is allowed to be a free fitting parameter. However, the Spring-Hutter-Clarke model over predicts peak discharge in all cases by 10 to 35%. The systematic over prediction of peak discharge by the model is related to its abrupt flood termination that misses the observed steep falling limb of the flood hydrograph. Although satisfactory model fits are produced, the range in hydraulic roughness required to obtain these fits across all events was large, which suggests that current models do not

  4. Broad-scale predictability of carbohydrates and exopolymers in Antarctic and Arctic sea ice

    PubMed Central

    Underwood, Graham J. C.; Aslam, Shazia N.; Michel, Christine; Niemi, Andrea; Norman, Louiza; Meiners, Klaus M.; Laybourn-Parry, Johanna; Paterson, Harriet; Thomas, David N.

    2013-01-01

    Sea ice can contain high concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), much of which is carbohydrate-rich extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) produced by microalgae and bacteria inhabiting the ice. Here we report the concentrations of dissolved carbohydrates (dCHO) and dissolved EPS (dEPS) in relation to algal standing stock [estimated by chlorophyll (Chl) a concentrations] in sea ice from six locations in the Southern and Arctic Oceans. Concentrations varied substantially within and between sampling sites, reflecting local ice conditions and biological content. However, combining all data revealed robust statistical relationships between dCHO concentrations and the concentrations of different dEPS fractions, Chl a, and DOC. These relationships were true for whole ice cores, bottom ice (biomass rich) sections, and colder surface ice. The distribution of dEPS was strongly correlated to algal biomass, with the highest concentrations of both dEPS and non-EPS carbohydrates in the bottom horizons of the ice. Complex EPS was more prevalent in colder surface sea ice horizons. Predictive models (validated against independent data) were derived to enable the estimation of dCHO concentrations from data on ice thickness, salinity, and vertical position in core. When Chl a data were included a higher level of prediction was obtained. The consistent patterns reflected in these relationships provide a strong basis for including estimates of regional and seasonal carbohydrate and dEPS carbon budgets in coupled physical-biogeochemical models, across different types of sea ice from both polar regions. PMID:24019487

  5. Broad-scale predictability of carbohydrates and exopolymers in Antarctic and Arctic sea ice.

    PubMed

    Underwood, Graham J C; Aslam, Shazia N; Michel, Christine; Niemi, Andrea; Norman, Louiza; Meiners, Klaus M; Laybourn-Parry, Johanna; Paterson, Harriet; Thomas, David N

    2013-09-24

    Sea ice can contain high concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), much of which is carbohydrate-rich extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) produced by microalgae and bacteria inhabiting the ice. Here we report the concentrations of dissolved carbohydrates (dCHO) and dissolved EPS (dEPS) in relation to algal standing stock [estimated by chlorophyll (Chl) a concentrations] in sea ice from six locations in the Southern and Arctic Oceans. Concentrations varied substantially within and between sampling sites, reflecting local ice conditions and biological content. However, combining all data revealed robust statistical relationships between dCHO concentrations and the concentrations of different dEPS fractions, Chl a, and DOC. These relationships were true for whole ice cores, bottom ice (biomass rich) sections, and colder surface ice. The distribution of dEPS was strongly correlated to algal biomass, with the highest concentrations of both dEPS and non-EPS carbohydrates in the bottom horizons of the ice. Complex EPS was more prevalent in colder surface sea ice horizons. Predictive models (validated against independent data) were derived to enable the estimation of dCHO concentrations from data on ice thickness, salinity, and vertical position in core. When Chl a data were included a higher level of prediction was obtained. The consistent patterns reflected in these relationships provide a strong basis for including estimates of regional and seasonal carbohydrate and dEPS carbon budgets in coupled physical-biogeochemical models, across different types of sea ice from both polar regions.

  6. Acute Toxicity Prediction to Threatened and Endangered Species Using Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) Models.

    PubMed

    Willming, Morgan M; Lilavois, Crystal R; Barron, Mace G; Raimondo, Sandy

    2016-10-04

    Evaluating contaminant sensitivity of threatened and endangered (listed) species and protectiveness of chemical regulations often depends on toxicity data for commonly tested surrogate species. The U.S. EPA's Internet application Web-ICE is a suite of Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) models that can extrapolate species sensitivity to listed taxa using least-squares regressions of the sensitivity of a surrogate species and a predicted taxon (species, genus, or family). Web-ICE was expanded with new models that can predict toxicity to over 250 listed species. A case study was used to assess protectiveness of genus and family model estimates derived from either geometric mean or minimum taxa toxicity values for listed species. Models developed from the most sensitive value for each chemical were generally protective of the most sensitive species within predicted taxa, including listed species, and were more protective than geometric means models. ICE model estimates were compared to HC5 values derived from Species Sensitivity Distributions for the case study chemicals to assess protectiveness of the two approaches. ICE models provide robust toxicity predictions and can generate protective toxicity estimates for assessing contaminant risk to listed species.

  7. Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Evolution using Koopman Mode Decomposition Techniques

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2018-04-30

    Title: Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Evolution using Koopman Mode Decomposition Techniques Subject: Monthly Progress Report Period of...Resources: N/A TOTAL: $18,687 2 TECHNICAL STATUS REPORT Abstract The program goal is analysis of sea ice dynamical behavior using Koopman Mode Decompo...sition (KMD) techniques. The work in the program’s first month consisted of improvements to data processing code, inclusion of additional arctic sea ice

  8. Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

    2017-12-01

    We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

  9. Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff

    PubMed Central

    Van Tricht, K.; Lhermitte, S.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Gorodetskaya, I. V.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Noël, B.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Turner, D. D.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

    2016-01-01

    The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m−2. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise. PMID:26756470

  10. Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff.

    PubMed

    Van Tricht, K; Lhermitte, S; Lenaerts, J T M; Gorodetskaya, I V; L'Ecuyer, T S; Noël, B; van den Broeke, M R; Turner, D D; van Lipzig, N P M

    2016-01-12

    The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m(-2). Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise.

  11. A Revised Validation Process for Ice Accretion Codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.; Porter, Christopher E.

    2017-01-01

    A research project is underway at NASA Glenn to produce computer software that can accurately predict ice growth under any meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present results from the latest LEWICE release, version 3.5. This program differs from previous releases in its ability to model mixed phase and ice crystal conditions such as those encountered inside an engine. It also has expanded capability to use structured grids and a new capability to use results from unstructured grid flow solvers. A quantitative comparison of the results against a database of ice shapes that have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) has also been performed. This paper will extend the comparison of ice shapes between LEWICE 3.5 and experimental data from a previous paper. Comparisons of lift and drag are made between experimentally collected data from experimentally obtained ice shapes and simulated (CFD) data on simulated (LEWICE) ice shapes. Comparisons are also made between experimentally collected and simulated performance data on select experimental ice shapes to ensure the CFD solver, FUN3D, is valid within the flight regime. The results show that the predicted results are within the accuracy limits of the experimental data for the majority of cases.

  12. Seasonal predictability of Arctic Sea Ice: assessing its limits and potential in a GCM and implications for observations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.

    2012-12-01

    Arctic sea ice has exhibited a dramatic decrease both in area and thickness over the recent decades, particularly during the summer months. This decrease has led to growing interest in the potential predictability of summer sea ice, spurred in part by the socioeconomic implications. Here we present results of several parallel experiments designed to assess and understand the limits and potential for seasonal predictability of Arctic sea ice, with an emphasis on the summer minimum. Building on our experience from the SEARCH Outlook, we present results of a coupled general circulation model (GCM) hindcast simulation of Arctic summer sea ice variability for the satellite period (1979-present). These are initialized with spring sea ice volume anomalies obtained from a modelling and assimilation system, considered to be a close representation of reality. We show that there is significant predictability, yet the stochastic forcing imparted mainly by the atmosphere can lead to large errors in the hindcast. The model, however, can simulate anomalous runs that lie beyond a Gaussian distribution. Additionally, we investigate the regional characteristics of predictability and its links to sea ice dynamics and the spatio-temporal behavior of sea ice anomalies. We show a distinct difference between models. Unfortunately, observational data of thickness are not yet detailed enough to assess the models. Our results indicate the potential for detailed ice thickness observations in improving regional predictability. Finally, we discuss the importance of experiment design in predictability experiments, and show that predictions made with models that have a large mean state bias in sea ice require a careful initialization in order to fully capture all initial value predictability.

  13. Prediction of sea ice thickness cluster in the Northern Hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuckar, Neven-Stjepan; Guemas, Virginie; Johnson, Nathaniel; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2016-04-01

    Sea ice thickness (SIT) has a potential to contain substantial climate memory and predictability in the northern hemisphere (NH) sea ice system. We use 5-member NH SIT, reconstructed with an ocean-sea-ice general circulation model (NEMOv3.3 with LIM2) with a simple data assimilation routine, to determine NH SIT modes of variability disentangled from the long-term climate change. Specifically, we apply the K-means cluster analysis - one of nonhierarchical clustering methods that partition data into modes or clusters based on their distances in the physical - to determine optimal number of NH SIT clusters (K=3) and their historical variability. To examine prediction skill of NH SIT clusters in EC-Earth2.3, a state-of-the-art coupled climate forecast system, we use 5-member ocean and sea ice initial conditions (IC) from the same ocean-sea-ice historical reconstruction and atmospheric IC from ERA-Interim reanalysis. We focus on May 1st and Nov 1st start dates from 1979 to 2010. Common skill metrics of probability forecast, such as rank probability skill core and ROC (relative operating characteristics - hit rate versus false alarm rate) and reliability diagrams show that our dynamical model predominately perform better than the 1st order Marko chain forecast (that beats climatological forecast) over the first forecast year. On average May 1st start dates initially have lower skill than Nov 1st start dates, but their skill is degraded at slower rate than skill of forecast started on Nov 1st.

  14. Damage Mechanics in the Community Ice Sheet Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitcomb, R.; Cathles, L. M. M., IV; Bassis, J. N.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Price, S. F.

    2016-12-01

    Half of the mass that floating ice shelves lose to the ocean comes from iceberg calving, which is a difficult process to simulate accurately. This is especially true in the large-scale ice dynamics models that couple changes in the cryosphere to climate projections. Damage mechanics provide a powerful technique with the potential to overcome this obstacle by describing how fractures in ice evolve over time. Here, we demonstrate the application of a damage model to ice shelves that predicts realistic geometries. We incorporated this solver into the Community Ice Sheet Model, a three dimensional ice sheet model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The damage mechanics formulation that we use comes from a first principles-based evolution law for the depth of basal and surface crevasses and depends on the large scale strain rate, stress state, and basal melt. We show that under idealized conditions it produces ice tongue lengths that match well with observations for a selection of natural ice tongues, including Erebus, Drygalski, and Pine Island in Antarctica, as well as Petermann in Greenland. We also apply the model to more generalized ideal ice shelf geometries and show that it produces realistic calving front positions. Although our results are preliminary, the damage mechanics model that we developed provides a promising first principles method for predicting ice shelf extent and how the calving margins of ice shelves respond to climate change.

  15. Biomarker Surrogates Do Not Accurately Predict Sputum Eosinophils and Neutrophils in Asthma

    PubMed Central

    Hastie, Annette T.; Moore, Wendy C.; Li, Huashi; Rector, Brian M.; Ortega, Victor E.; Pascual, Rodolfo M.; Peters, Stephen P.; Meyers, Deborah A.; Bleecker, Eugene R.

    2013-01-01

    Background Sputum eosinophils (Eos) are a strong predictor of airway inflammation, exacerbations, and aid asthma management, whereas sputum neutrophils (Neu) indicate a different severe asthma phenotype, potentially less responsive to TH2-targeted therapy. Variables such as blood Eos, total IgE, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) or FEV1% predicted, may predict airway Eos, while age, FEV1%predicted, or blood Neu may predict sputum Neu. Availability and ease of measurement are useful characteristics, but accuracy in predicting airway Eos and Neu, individually or combined, is not established. Objectives To determine whether blood Eos, FeNO, and IgE accurately predict sputum eosinophils, and age, FEV1% predicted, and blood Neu accurately predict sputum neutrophils (Neu). Methods Subjects in the Wake Forest Severe Asthma Research Program (N=328) were characterized by blood and sputum cells, healthcare utilization, lung function, FeNO, and IgE. Multiple analytical techniques were utilized. Results Despite significant association with sputum Eos, blood Eos, FeNO and total IgE did not accurately predict sputum Eos, and combinations of these variables failed to improve prediction. Age, FEV1%predicted and blood Neu were similarly unsatisfactory for prediction of sputum Neu. Factor analysis and stepwise selection found FeNO, IgE and FEV1% predicted, but not blood Eos, correctly predicted 69% of sputum Eospredicted 64% of sputum Neupredict both sputum Eos and Neu accurately assigned only 41% of samples. Conclusion Despite statistically significant associations FeNO, IgE, blood Eos and Neu, FEV1%predicted, and age are poor surrogates, separately and combined, for accurately predicting sputum eosinophils and neutrophils. PMID:23706399

  16. Middle Range Sea Ice Prediction System of Voyage Environmental Information System in Arctic Sea Route

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Due to global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is melting dramatically in summer, which is providing a new opportunity to exploit the Northern Sea Route (NSR) connecting Asia and Europe ship route. Recent increases in logistics transportation through NSR and resource development reveal the possible threats of marine pollution and marine transportation accidents without real-time navigation system. To develop a safe Voyage Environmental Information System (VEIS) for vessels operating, the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) which is supported by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea has initiated the development of short-term and middle range prediction system for the sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT) in NSR since 2014. The sea ice prediction system of VEIS consists of AMSR2 satellite composite images (a day), short-term (a week) prediction system, and middle range (a month) prediction system using a statistical method with re-analysis data (TOPAZ) and short-term predicted model data. In this study, the middle range prediction system for the SIC and SIT in NSR is calibrated with another middle range predicted atmospheric and oceanic data (NOAA CFSv2). The system predicts one month SIC and SIT on a daily basis, as validated with dynamic composite SIC data extracted from AMSR2 L2 satellite images.

  17. Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

    2013-12-01

    The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods

  18. Three dimensional numerical prediction of icing related power and energy losses on a wind turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sagol, Ece

    , while the latter performs all the steps in the 3D domain. The Fully-3D method yields more accurate predictions for a clean blade. For icing conditions, a validation is not possible, owing to the lack of experimental data. However, the two methods produce quite different results for the performance of the ice shape and the iced blade. A critical analysis of the results shows that, although the computational cost of the Fully-3D method is much higher, icing analyses in 2D may lack accuracy, because the ice shape and the related power loss are compromised by not considering the 3D features of rotational flow. While performing the CFD computations on the iced blade, the rough surface of the ice is smoothed to a degree, in order to prevent numerical instability and to keep the mesh size within a reasonable limit. However, roughness effects cannot be excluded altogether, as they contribute significantly to performance reduction. We consider roughness through a modification in the CFD code, and assess its effect on performance for the clean blade.

  19. Radiative transfer model of snow for bare ice regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanikawa, T.; Aoki, T.; Niwano, M.; Hosaka, M.; Shimada, R.; Hori, M.; Yamaguchi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Modeling a radiative transfer (RT) for coupled atmosphere-snow-bare ice systems is of fundamental importance for remote sensing applications to monitor snow and bare ice regions in the Greenland ice sheet and for accurate climate change predictions by regional and global climate models. Recently, the RT model for atmosphere-snow system was implemented for our regional and global climate models. However, the bare ice region where recently it has been expanded on the Greenland ice sheet due to the global warming, has not been implemented for these models, implying that this region leads miscalculations in these climate models. Thus, the RT model of snow for bare ice regions is needed for accurate climate change predictions. We developed the RT model for coupled atmosphere-snow-bare ice systems, and conducted a sensitivity analysis of the RT model to know the effect of snow, bare ice and geometry parameters on the spectral radiant quantities. The RT model considers snow and bare-ice inherent optical properties (IOPs), including snow grain size, air bubble size and its concentration and bare ice thickness. The conventional light scattering theory, Mie theory, was used for IOP calculations. Monte Carlo method was used for the multiple scattering. The sensitivity analyses showed that spectral albedo for the bare ice increased with increasing the concentration of the air bubble in the bare ice for visible wavelengths because the air bubble is scatterer with no absorption. For near infrared wavelengths, spectral albedo has no dependence on the air bubble due to the strong light absorption by ice. When increasing solar zenith angle, the spectral albedo were increased for all wavelengths. This is the similar trend with spectral snow albedo. Cloud cover influenced the bare ice spectral albedo by covering direct radiation into diffuse radiation. The purely diffuse radiation has an effective solar zenith angle near 50°. Converting direct into diffuse radiation reduces the

  20. Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stroeve, Julienne C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stammerjohn, Sharon

    2016-06-01

    Reliable forecasts of the timing of sea ice advance are needed in order to reduce risks associated with operating in the Arctic as well as planning of human and environmental emergencies. This study investigates the use of a simple statistical model relating the timing of ice retreat to the timing of ice advance, taking advantage of the inherent predictive power supplied by the seasonal ice-albedo feedback and ocean heat uptake. Results show that using the last retreat date to predict the first advance date is applicable in some regions, such as Baffin Bay and the Laptev and East Siberian seas, where a predictive skill is found even after accounting for the long-term trend in both variables. Elsewhere, in the Arctic, there is some predictive skills depending on the year (e.g., Kara and Beaufort seas), but none in regions such as the Barents and Bering seas or the Sea of Okhotsk. While there is some suggestion that the relationship is strengthening over time, this may reflect that higher correlations are expected during periods when the underlying trend is strong.

  1. Modelling of Sea Ice Thermodynamics and Biogeochemistry during the N-ICE2015 Expedition in the Arctic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, A.; Duarte, P.; Mork Olsen, L.; Kauko, H.; Assmy, P.; Rösel, A.; Itkin, P.; Hudson, S. R.; Granskog, M. A.; Gerland, S.; Sundfjord, A.; Steen, H.; Jeffery, N.; Hunke, E. C.; Elliott, S.; Turner, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    Changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean over the last decades from a thick perennial multiyear ice to a first year ice have been well documented. These changes in the sea ice regime will affect feedback mechanisms between the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean. Here we evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE), a state of the art sea ice model, to predict sea ice physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks. We also identify the most problematic prognostic variables and what is necessary to improve their forecast. The availability of a complete data set of forcing collected during the Norwegian Young sea Ice (N-ICE-2015) expedition north of Svalbard opens the possibility to properly test CICE. Oceanographic, atmospheric, sea ice, snow, and biological data were collected above, on, and below the ice using R/V Lance as the base for the ice camps that were drifting south towards the Fram Strait. Over six months, four different drifts took place, from the Nansen Basin, through the marginal ice zone, to the open ocean. Obtained results from the model show a good performance regarding ice thickness, salinity and temperature. Nutrients and sea ice algae are however not modelled as accurately. We hypothesize that improvements in biogeochemical modeling may be achieved by complementing brine drainage with a diffusion parameterization and biogeochemical modeling with the introduction of an explicit formulation to forecast chlorophyll and regulate photosynthetic efficiency.

  2. Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

    2012-12-01

    We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be

  3. Accelerated Prediction of the Polar Ice and Global Ocean (APPIGO)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    APPIGO) Eric Chassignet Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS) Florida State University PO Box 3062840 Tallahassee, FL 32306...PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Florida Atlantic University,Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS),PO Box 3062840...Cavalieri, D. J., C. I. Parkinson , P. Gloersen, and H. J. Zwally. 1997. Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Concentrations from Multichannel Passive-Microwave

  4. Predicting Maps of Green Growth in Košice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poorova, Zuzana; Vranayova, Zuzana

    2017-10-01

    The paper deals with the changing of the traditional roofs in the city of Košice into green roofs. Possible areas of city housing estates, after taking into account the conditions of each of them (types of buildings, statics of buildings), are listed in the paper. The research is picturing the prediction maps of Košice city from 2017 to 2042 in 5-years interval. The paper is a segment of a dissertation work focusing on changing traditional roofs into green roofs with the aim to retain water, calculate the amount of retained water and show possibilities how to use this water.

  5. Comparison of LEWICE and GlennICE in the SLD Regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.; Potapczuk, Mark G.; Levinson, Laurie H.

    2008-01-01

    A research project is underway at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) to produce computer software that can accurately predict ice growth under any meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present results from two different computer programs. The first program, LEWICE version 3.2.2, has been reported on previously. The second program is GlennICE version 0.1. An extensive comparison of the results in a quantifiable manner against the database of ice shapes that have been generated in the GRC Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) has also been performed, including additional data taken to extend the database in the Super-cooled Large Drop (SLD) regime. This paper will show the differences in ice shape between LEWICE 3.2.2, GlennICE, and experimental data. This report will also provide a description of both programs. Comparisons are then made to recent additions to the SLD database and selected previous cases. Quantitative comparisons are shown for horn height, horn angle, icing limit, area, and leading edge thickness. The results show that the predicted results for both programs are within the accuracy limits of the experimental data for the majority of cases.

  6. Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Day, J. J.; Hawkins, E.; Tietsche, S.

    2014-11-01

    Arctic sea ice thickness is thought to be an important predictor of Arctic sea ice extent. However, coupled seasonal forecast systems do not generally use sea ice thickness observations in their initialization and are therefore missing a potentially important source of additional skill. To investigate how large this source is, a set of ensemble potential predictability experiments with a global climate model, initialized with and without knowledge of the sea ice thickness initial state, have been run. These experiments show that accurate knowledge of the sea ice thickness field is crucially important for sea ice concentration and extent forecasts up to 8 months ahead, especially in summer. Perturbing sea ice thickness also has a significant impact on the forecast error in Arctic 2 m temperature a few months ahead. These results suggest that advancing capabilities to observe and assimilate sea ice thickness into coupled forecast systems could significantly increase skill.

  7. CFD Analysis of the Aerodynamics of a Business-Jet Airfoil with Leading-Edge Ice Accretion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chi, X.; Zhu, B.; Shih, T. I.-P.; Addy, H. E.; Choo, Y. K.

    2004-01-01

    For rime ice - where the ice buildup has only rough and jagged surfaces but no protruding horns - this study shows two dimensional CFD analysis based on the one-equation Spalart-Almaras (S-A) turbulence model to predict accurately the lift, drag, and pressure coefficients up to near the stall angle. For glaze ice - where the ice buildup has two or more protruding horns near the airfoil's leading edge - CFD predictions were much less satisfactory because of the large separated region produced by the horns even at zero angle of attack. This CFD study, based on the WIND and the Fluent codes, assesses the following turbulence models by comparing predictions with available experimental data: S-A, standard k-epsilon, shear-stress transport, v(exp 2)-f, and differential Reynolds stress.

  8. Users Manual for the NASA Lewis Ice Accretion Prediction Code (LEWICE)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruff, Gary A.; Berkowitz, Brian M.

    1990-01-01

    LEWICE is an ice accretion prediction code that applies a time-stepping procedure to calculate the shape of an ice accretion. The potential flow field is calculated in LEWICE using the Douglas Hess-Smith 2-D panel code (S24Y). This potential flow field is then used to calculate the trajectories of particles and the impingement points on the body. These calculations are performed to determine the distribution of liquid water impinging on the body, which then serves as input to the icing thermodynamic code. The icing thermodynamic model is based on the work of Messinger, but contains several major modifications and improvements. This model is used to calculate the ice growth rate at each point on the surface of the geometry. By specifying an icing time increment, the ice growth rate can be interpreted as an ice thickness which is added to the body, resulting in the generation of new coordinates. This procedure is repeated, beginning with the potential flow calculations, until the desired icing time is reached. The operation of LEWICE is illustrated through the use of five examples. These examples are representative of the types of applications expected for LEWICE. All input and output is discussed, along with many of the diagnostic messages contained in the code. Several error conditions that may occur in the code for certain icing conditions are identified, and a course of action is recommended. LEWICE has been used to calculate a variety of ice shapes, but should still be considered a research code. The code should be exercised further to identify any shortcomings and inadequacies. Any modifications identified as a result of these cases, or of additional experimental results, should be incorporated into the model. Using it as a test bed for improvements to the ice accretion model is one important application of LEWICE.

  9. Impact of bacterial ice nucleating particles on weather predicted by a numerical weather prediction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahyoun, Maher; Korsholm, Ulrik S.; Sørensen, Jens H.; Šantl-Temkiv, Tina; Finster, Kai; Gosewinkel, Ulrich; Nielsen, Niels W.

    2017-12-01

    Bacterial ice-nucleating particles (INP) have the ability to facilitate ice nucleation from super-cooled cloud droplets at temperatures just below the melting point. Bacterial INP have been detected in cloud water, precipitation, and dry air, hence they may have an impact on weather and climate. In modeling studies, the potential impact of bacteria on ice nucleation and precipitation formation on global scale is still uncertain due to their small concentration compared to other types of INP, i.e. dust. Those earlier studies did not account for the yet undetected high concentration of nanoscale fragments of bacterial INP, which may be found free or attached to soil dust in the atmosphere. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled cloud ice, precipitation and global solar radiation in different weather scenarios to changes in the fraction of cloud droplets containing bacterial INP, regardless of their size. For this purpose, a module that calculates the probability of ice nucleation as a function of ice nucleation rate and bacterial INP fraction was developed and implemented in a numerical weather prediction model. The threshold value for the fraction of cloud droplets containing bacterial INP needed to produce a 1% increase in cloud ice was determined at 10-5 to 10-4. We also found that increasing this fraction causes a perturbation in the forecast, leading to significant differences in cloud ice and smaller differences in convective and total precipitation and in net solar radiation reaching the surface. These effects were most pronounced in local convective events. Our results show that bacterial INP can be considered as a trigger factor for precipitation, but not an enhancement factor.

  10. A Self-Organizing Map Based Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Using Observations from a 30-m Instrumented Tower on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nigro, M. A.; Cassano, J. J.; Wille, J.; Bromwich, D. H.; Lazzara, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    An accurate representation of the atmospheric boundary layer in numerical weather prediction models is important for predicting turbulence and energy exchange in the atmosphere. This study uses two years of observations from a 30-m automatic weather station (AWS) installed on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica to evaluate forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), a numerical weather prediction system based on the polar version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) model that uses the MYJ planetary boundary layer scheme and that primarily supports the extensive aircraft operations of the U.S. Antarctic Program. The 30-m AWS has six levels of instrumentation, providing vertical profiles of temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. The observations show the atmospheric boundary layer over the Ross Ice Shelf is stable approximately 80% of the time, indicating the influence of the permanent ice surface in this region. The observations from the AWS are further analyzed using the method of self-organizing maps (SOM) to identify the range of potential temperature profiles that occur over the Ross Ice Shelf. The SOM analysis identified 30 patterns, which range from strong inversions to slightly unstable profiles. The corresponding AMPS forecasts were evaluated for each of the 30 patterns to understand the accuracy of the AMPS near surface layer under different atmospheric conditions. The results indicate that under stable conditions AMPS with MYJ under predicts the inversion strength by as much as 7.4 K over the 30-m depth of the tower and over predicts the near surface wind speed by as much as 3.8 m s-1. Conversely, under slightly unstable conditions, AMPS predicts both the inversion strength and near surface wind speeds with reasonable accuracy.

  11. Did glacially induced TPW end the ice age? A reanalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Ngai-Ham; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Daradich, Amy

    2015-09-01

    Previous studies of Earth rotation perturbations due to ice-age loading have predicted a slow secular drift of the rotation axis relative to the surface geography (i.e. true polar wander, TPW) of order of several degrees over the Plio-Pleistocene. It has been argued that this drift and the change in the geographic distribution of solar insolation that it implies may have been responsible for important transitions in ice-age climate, including the termination of ice-age cycles.We use a revised rotational stability theory that incorporates a more accurate treatment of the Earth's background ellipticity to reconsider this issue, and demonstrate that the net displacement of the pole predicted in earlier studies disappears. This more muted polar motion is due to two factors: first, the revised theory no longer predicts the permanent shift in the rotation axis, or the so-called `unidirectional TPW', that appears in the traditional stability theory; and, second, the increased background ellipticity incorporated in the revised predictions acts to reduce the normal mode amplitudes governing the motion of the pole. We conclude that ice-age-induced TPW was not responsible for the termination of the ice age. This does not preclude the possibility that TPW induced by mantle convective flow may have played a role in major Plio-Pleistocene climate transitions, including the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

  12. Revisiting the Potential of Melt Pond Fraction as a Predictor for the Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Extent Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Jiping; Song, Mirong; Horton, Radley M.; Hu, Yongyun

    2015-01-01

    The rapid change in Arctic sea ice in recent decades has led to a rising demand for seasonal sea ice prediction. A recent modeling study that employed a prognostic melt pond model in a stand-alone sea ice model found that September Arctic sea ice extent can be accurately predicted from the melt pond fraction in May. Here we show that satellite observations show no evidence of predictive skill in May. However, we find that a significantly strong relationship (high predictability) first emerges as the melt pond fraction is integrated from early May to late June, with a persistent strong relationship only occurring after late July. Our results highlight that late spring to mid summer melt pond information is required to improve the prediction skill of the seasonal sea ice minimum. Furthermore, satellite observations indicate a much higher percentage of melt pond formation in May than does the aforementioned model simulation, which points to the need to reconcile model simulations and observations, in order to better understand key mechanisms of melt pond formation and evolution and their influence on sea ice state.

  13. Accurate Identification of Fear Facial Expressions Predicts Prosocial Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Marsh, Abigail A.; Kozak, Megan N.; Ambady, Nalini

    2009-01-01

    The fear facial expression is a distress cue that is associated with the provision of help and prosocial behavior. Prior psychiatric studies have found deficits in the recognition of this expression by individuals with antisocial tendencies. However, no prior study has shown accuracy for recognition of fear to predict actual prosocial or antisocial behavior in an experimental setting. In 3 studies, the authors tested the prediction that individuals who recognize fear more accurately will behave more prosocially. In Study 1, participants who identified fear more accurately also donated more money and time to a victim in a classic altruism paradigm. In Studies 2 and 3, participants’ ability to identify the fear expression predicted prosocial behavior in a novel task designed to control for confounding variables. In Study 3, accuracy for recognizing fear proved a better predictor of prosocial behavior than gender, mood, or scores on an empathy scale. PMID:17516803

  14. Accurate identification of fear facial expressions predicts prosocial behavior.

    PubMed

    Marsh, Abigail A; Kozak, Megan N; Ambady, Nalini

    2007-05-01

    The fear facial expression is a distress cue that is associated with the provision of help and prosocial behavior. Prior psychiatric studies have found deficits in the recognition of this expression by individuals with antisocial tendencies. However, no prior study has shown accuracy for recognition of fear to predict actual prosocial or antisocial behavior in an experimental setting. In 3 studies, the authors tested the prediction that individuals who recognize fear more accurately will behave more prosocially. In Study 1, participants who identified fear more accurately also donated more money and time to a victim in a classic altruism paradigm. In Studies 2 and 3, participants' ability to identify the fear expression predicted prosocial behavior in a novel task designed to control for confounding variables. In Study 3, accuracy for recognizing fear proved a better predictor of prosocial behavior than gender, mood, or scores on an empathy scale.

  15. Navy Sea Ice Prediction Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2002-01-01

    for the IABP drifting buoys (red), the model (green), and the model with assimilation (black). 55 Oceanography • Vol. 15 • No. 1/2002 trate the need...SPECIAL ISSUE – NAVY OPERATIONAL MODELS : TEN YEARS LATER Oceanography • Vol. 15 • No. 1/2002 44 ice extent and/or ice thickness. A general trend...most often based on a combination of models and data. Modeling sea ice can be a difficult problem, as it exists in many different forms (Figure 1). It

  16. An Improved Model for Nucleation-Limited Ice Formation in Living Cells during Freezing

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Gang; He, Xiaoming

    2014-01-01

    Ice formation in living cells is a lethal event during freezing and its characterization is important to the development of optimal protocols for not only cryopreservation but also cryotherapy applications. Although the model for probability of ice formation (PIF) in cells developed by Toner et al. has been widely used to predict nucleation-limited intracellular ice formation (IIF), our data of freezing Hela cells suggest that this model could give misleading prediction of PIF when the maximum PIF in cells during freezing is less than 1 (PIF ranges from 0 to 1). We introduce a new model to overcome this problem by incorporating a critical cell volume to modify the Toner's original model. We further reveal that this critical cell volume is dependent on the mechanisms of ice nucleation in cells during freezing, i.e., surface-catalyzed nucleation (SCN) and volume-catalyzed nucleation (VCN). Taken together, the improved PIF model may be valuable for better understanding of the mechanisms of ice nucleation in cells during freezing and more accurate prediction of PIF for cryopreservation and cryotherapy applications. PMID:24852166

  17. Sensitivity of Totten Glacier Ice Shelf extent and grounding line to oceanic forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelle, T.; Morlighem, M.; Choi, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Totten Glacier is a major outlet glacier of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and has been shown to be vulnerable to ocean-induced melt in both its past and present states. The intrusion of warm, circumpolar deep water beneath the Totten Glacier Ice Shelf (TGIS) has been observed to accelerate ice shelf thinning and promote iceberg calving, a primary mechanism of mass discharge from Totten. As such, accurately simulating TGIS's ice front dynamics is crucial to the predictive capabilities of ice sheet models in this region. Here, we study the TGIS using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and test the applicability of three calving laws: Crevasse Formation calving, Eigen calving, and Tensile Stress calving. We simulate the evolution of Totten Glacier through 2100 under enhanced oceanic forcing in order to investigate both future changes in ice front dynamics and possible thresholds of instability. In addition, we artificially retreat Totten's ice front position and allow the model to proceed dynamically in order to analyze the response of the glacier to calving events. Our analyses show that Tensile Stress calving most accurately reproduces Totten Glacier's observed ice front position. Furthermore, unstable grounding line retreat is projected when Totten is simulated under stronger oceanic thermal forcing scenarios and when the calving front is significantly retreated.

  18. Using Ice Predictions to Guide Submarines

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-01-01

    the Arctic Cap Nowcast/ Forecast System (ACNFS) in September 2013. The ACNFS consists of a coupled ice -ocean model that assimilates available real...of the ice cover. The age of the sea ice serves as an indicator of its physical properties including surface roughness, melt pond coverage, and...the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS). Ice thickness is in meters for 11 September 2015. Thickness ranges from zero to five meters as shown

  19. Accurate Binding Free Energy Predictions in Fragment Optimization.

    PubMed

    Steinbrecher, Thomas B; Dahlgren, Markus; Cappel, Daniel; Lin, Teng; Wang, Lingle; Krilov, Goran; Abel, Robert; Friesner, Richard; Sherman, Woody

    2015-11-23

    Predicting protein-ligand binding free energies is a central aim of computational structure-based drug design (SBDD)--improved accuracy in binding free energy predictions could significantly reduce costs and accelerate project timelines in lead discovery and optimization. The recent development and validation of advanced free energy calculation methods represents a major step toward this goal. Accurately predicting the relative binding free energy changes of modifications to ligands is especially valuable in the field of fragment-based drug design, since fragment screens tend to deliver initial hits of low binding affinity that require multiple rounds of synthesis to gain the requisite potency for a project. In this study, we show that a free energy perturbation protocol, FEP+, which was previously validated on drug-like lead compounds, is suitable for the calculation of relative binding strengths of fragment-sized compounds as well. We study several pharmaceutically relevant targets with a total of more than 90 fragments and find that the FEP+ methodology, which uses explicit solvent molecular dynamics and physics-based scoring with no parameters adjusted, can accurately predict relative fragment binding affinities. The calculations afford R(2)-values on average greater than 0.5 compared to experimental data and RMS errors of ca. 1.1 kcal/mol overall, demonstrating significant improvements over the docking and MM-GBSA methods tested in this work and indicating that FEP+ has the requisite predictive power to impact fragment-based affinity optimization projects.

  20. Statistical prediction of September Arctic Sea Ice minimum based on stable teleconnections with global climate and oceanic patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.

    2016-12-01

    Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad information interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability depends on various climate parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September minimum sea ice extent for every year. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of September sea ice minimum show a relatively reduced skill, here it is shown that more than 97% (r = 0.98) of the September sea ice extent can predicted three months in advance by using previous months conditions via a multiple linear regression model based on global sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature at 850hPa (TT850), surface winds and sea ice extent persistence. The statistical model is based on the identification of regions with stable teleconnections between the predictors (climatological parameters) and the predictand (here sea ice extent). The results based on our statistical model contribute to the sea ice prediction network for the sea ice outlook report (https://www.arcus.org/sipn) and could provide a tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

  1. Analysis and Prediction of Ice Shedding for a Full-Scale Heated Tail Rotor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreeger, Richard E.; Work, Andrew; Douglass, Rebekah; Gazella, Matthew; Koster, Zakery; Turk, Jodi

    2016-01-01

    When helicopters are to fly in icing conditions, it is necessary to consider the possibility of ice shed from the rotor blades. In 2013, a series of tests were conducted on a heated tail rotor at NASA Glenn's Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). The tests produced several shed events that were captured on camera. Three of these shed events were captured at a sufficiently high frame rate to obtain multiple images of the shed ice in flight that had a sufficiently long section of shed ice for analysis. Analysis of these shed events is presented and compared to an analytical Shedding Trajectory Model (STM). The STM is developed and assumes that the ice breaks off instantly as it reaches the end of the blade, while frictional and viscous forces are used as parameters to fit the STM. The trajectory of each shed is compared to that predicted by the STM, where the STM provides information of the shed group of ice as a whole. The limitations of the model's underlying assumptions are discussed in comparison to experimental shed events.

  2. Prediction of dry ice mass for firefighting robot actuation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajala, M. T.; Khan, Md R.; Shafie, A. A.; Salami, MJE; Mohamad Nor, M. I.

    2017-11-01

    The limitation in the performance of electric actuated firefighting robots in high-temperature fire environment has led to research on the alternative propulsion system for the mobility of firefighting robots in such environment. Capitalizing on the limitations of these electric actuators we suggested a gas-actuated propulsion system in our earlier study. The propulsion system is made up of a pneumatic motor as the actuator (for the robot) and carbon dioxide gas (self-generated from dry ice) as the power source. To satisfy the consumption requirement (9cfm) of the motor for efficient actuation of the robot in the fire environment, the volume of carbon dioxide gas, as well as the corresponding mass of the dry ice that will produce the required volume for powering and actuation of the robot, must be determined. This article, therefore, presents the computational analysis to predict the volumetric requirement and the dry ice mass sufficient to power a carbon dioxide gas propelled autonomous firefighting robot in a high-temperature environment. The governing equation of the sublimation of dry ice to carbon dioxide is established. An operating time of 2105.53s and operating pressure ranges from 137.9kPa to 482.65kPa were achieved following the consumption rate of the motor. Thus, 8.85m3 is computed as the volume requirement of the CAFFR while the corresponding dry ice mass for the CAFFR actuation ranges from 21.67kg to 75.83kg depending on the operating pressure.

  3. Will sea ice thickness initialisation improve Arctic seasonal-to-interannual forecast skill?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Day, J. J.; Hawkins, E.; Tietsche, S.

    2014-12-01

    A number of recent studies have suggested that Arctic sea ice thickness is an important predictor of Arctic sea ice extent. However, coupled forecast systems do not currently use sea ice thickness observations in their initialization and are therefore missing a potentially important source of additional skill. A set of ensemble potential predictability experiments, with a global climate model, initialized with and without knowledge of the sea ice thickness initial state, have been run to investigate this. These experiments show that accurate knowledge of the sea ice thickness field is crucially important for sea ice concentration and extent forecasts up to eight months ahead. Perturbing sea ice thickness also has a significant impact on the forecast error in the 2m temperature and surface pressure fields a few months ahead. These results show that advancing capabilities to observe and assimilate sea ice thickness into coupled forecast systems could significantly increase skill.

  4. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2014-05-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

  5. Astronomical Ice: The Effects of Treating Ice as a Porous Media on the Dynamics and Evolution of Extraterrestrial Ice-Ocean Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buffo, J.; Schmidt, B. E.

    2015-12-01

    With the prevalence of water and ice rich environments in the solar system, and likely the universe, becoming more apparent, understanding the evolutionary dynamics and physical processes of such locales is of great importance. Piqued interest arises from the understanding that the persistence of all known life depends on the presence of liquid water. As in situ investigation is currently infeasible, accurate numerical modeling is the best technique to demystify these environments. We will discuss an evolving model of ice-ocean interaction aimed at realistically describing the behavior of the ice-ocean interface by treating basal ice as a porous media, and its possible implications on the formation of astrobiological niches. Treating ice as a porous media drastically affects the thermodynamic properties it exhibits. Thus inclusion of this phenomenon is critical in accurately representing the dynamics and evolution of all ice-ocean environments. This model utilizes equations that describe the dynamics of sea ice when it is treated as a porous media (Hunke et. al. 2011), coupled with a basal melt and accretion model (Holland and Jenkins 1999). Combined, these two models produce the most accurate description of the processes occurring at the base of terrestrial sea ice and ice shelves, capable of resolving variations within the ice due to environmental pressures. While these models were designed for application to terrestrial environments, the physics occurring at any ice-water interface is identical, and these models can be used to represent the evolution of a variety of icy astronomical bodies. As terrestrial ice shelves provide a close analog to planetary ice-ocean environments, we truth test the models validity against observations of ice shelves. We apply this model to the ice-ocean interface of the icy Galilean moon Europa. We include profiles of temperature, salinity, solid fraction, and Darcy velocity, as well as temporally and spatially varying melt and

  6. Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route

    PubMed Central

    Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Ono, Jun; Dethloff, Klaus; Maturilli, Marion; Neuber, Roland; Edwards, Patti; Yamaguchi, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR. PMID:26585690

  7. Accurate single-scattering simulation of ice cloud using the invariant-imbedding T-matrix method and the physical-geometric optics method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, B.; Yang, P.; Kattawar, G. W.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    The ice cloud single-scattering properties can be accurately simulated using the invariant-imbedding T-matrix method (IITM) and the physical-geometric optics method (PGOM). The IITM has been parallelized using the Message Passing Interface (MPI) method to remove the memory limitation so that the IITM can be used to obtain the single-scattering properties of ice clouds for sizes in the geometric optics regime. Furthermore, the results associated with random orientations can be analytically achieved once the T-matrix is given. The PGOM is also parallelized in conjunction with random orientations. The single-scattering properties of a hexagonal prism with height 400 (in units of lambda/2*pi, where lambda is the incident wavelength) and an aspect ratio of 1 (defined as the height over two times of bottom side length) are given by using the parallelized IITM and compared to the counterparts using the parallelized PGOM. The two results are in close agreement. Furthermore, the integrated single-scattering properties, including the asymmetry factor, the extinction cross-section, and the scattering cross-section, are given in a completed size range. The present results show a smooth transition from the exact IITM solution to the approximate PGOM result. Because the calculation of the IITM method has reached the geometric regime, the IITM and the PGOM can be efficiently employed to accurately compute the single-scattering properties of ice cloud in a wide spectral range.

  8. Ice stream activity scaled to ice sheet volume during Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Stokes, C R; Margold, M; Clark, C D; Tarasov, L

    2016-02-18

    The contribution of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea level has increased in recent decades, largely owing to the thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers and ice streams. This dynamic loss is a serious concern, with some modelling studies suggesting that the collapse of a major ice sheet could be imminent or potentially underway in West Antarctica, but others predicting a more limited response. A major problem is that observations used to initialize and calibrate models typically span only a few decades, and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves over longer timescales. This represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty when predicting the contributions of ice sheets to sea-level rise. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. Here we reconstruct the activity of 117 ice streams that operated at various times during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (from about 22,000 to 7,000 years ago) and show that as they activated and deactivated in different locations, their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter and their total discharge decreased. The underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but--at the ice-sheet scale--their drainage network adjusted and was linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings can be directly translated to modern ice sheets. However, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can accelerate ice-sheet deglaciation, we conclude that ice streams exerted progressively less influence on ice sheet mass balance during the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

  9. ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict stroke outcome more accurately than physicians.

    PubMed

    Ntaios, G; Gioulekas, F; Papavasileiou, V; Strbian, D; Michel, P

    2016-11-01

    ASTRAL, SEDAN and DRAGON scores are three well-validated scores for stroke outcome prediction. Whether these scores predict stroke outcome more accurately compared with physicians interested in stroke was investigated. Physicians interested in stroke were invited to an online anonymous survey to provide outcome estimates in randomly allocated structured scenarios of recent real-life stroke patients. Their estimates were compared to scores' predictions in the same scenarios. An estimate was considered accurate if it was within 95% confidence intervals of actual outcome. In all, 244 participants from 32 different countries responded assessing 720 real scenarios and 2636 outcomes. The majority of physicians' estimates were inaccurate (1422/2636, 53.9%). 400 (56.8%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of 3-month modified Rankin score (mRS) > 2 were accurate compared with 609 (86.5%) of ASTRAL score estimates (P < 0.0001). 394 (61.2%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of post-thrombolysis symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage were accurate compared with 583 (90.5%) of SEDAN score estimates (P < 0.0001). 160 (24.8%) of physicians' estimates about post-thrombolysis 3-month percentage probability of mRS 0-2 were accurate compared with 240 (37.3%) DRAGON score estimates (P < 0.0001). 260 (40.4%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of post-thrombolysis mRS 5-6 were accurate compared with 518 (80.4%) DRAGON score estimates (P < 0.0001). ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict outcome of acute ischaemic stroke patients with higher accuracy compared to physicians interested in stroke. © 2016 EAN.

  10. Arctic Sea Ice Classification and Mapping for Surface Albedo Parameterization in Sea Ice Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nghiem, S. V.; Clemente-Colón, P.; Perovich, D. K.; Polashenski, C.; Simpson, W. R.; Rigor, I. G.; Woods, J. E.; Nguyen, D. T.; Neumann, G.

    2016-12-01

    A regime shift of Arctic sea ice from predominantly perennial sea ice (multi-year ice or MYI) to seasonal sea ice (first-year ice or FYI) has occurred in recent decades. This shift has profoundly altered the proportional composition of different sea ice classes and the surface albedo distribution pertaining to each sea ice class. Such changes impacts physical, chemical, and biological processes in the Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean system. The drastic changes upset the traditional geophysical representation of surface albedo of the Arctic sea ice cover in current models. A critical science issue is that these profound changes must be rigorously and systematically observed and characterized to enable a transformative re-parameterization of key model inputs, such as ice surface albedo, to ice-ocean-atmosphere climate modeling in order to obtain re-analyses that accurately reproduce Arctic changes and also to improve sea ice and weather forecast models. Addressing this challenge is a strategy identified by the National Research Council study on "Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice - Challenges and Strategies" to replicate the new Arctic reality. We review results of albedo characteristics associated with different sea ice classes such as FYI and MYI. Then we demonstrate the capability for sea ice classification and mapping using algorithms developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and by the U.S. National Ice Center for use with multi-sourced satellite radar data at L, C, and Ku bands. Results obtained with independent algorithms for different radar frequencies consistently identify sea ice classes and thereby cross-verify the sea ice classification methods. Moreover, field observations obtained from buoy webcams and along an extensive trek across Elson Lagoon and a sector of the Beaufort Sea during the BRomine, Ozone, and Mercury EXperiment (BROMEX) in March 2012 are used to validate satellite products of sea ice classes. This research enables the mapping

  11. Validation of the FAST skating protocol to predict aerobic power in ice hockey players.

    PubMed

    Petrella, Nicholas J; Montelpare, William J; Nystrom, Murray; Plyley, Michael; Faught, Brent E

    2007-08-01

    Few studies have reported a sport-specific protocol to measure the aerobic power of ice hockey players using a predictive process. The purpose of our study was to validate an ice hockey aerobic field test on players of varying ages, abilities, and levels. The Faught Aerobic Skating Test (FAST) uses an on-ice continuous skating protocol on a course measuring 160 feet (48.8 m) using a CD to pace the skater with a beep signal to cross the starting line at each end of the course. The FAST incorporates the principle of increasing workload at measured time intervals during a continuous skating exercise. Step-wise multiple regression modelling was used to determine the estimate of aerobic power. Participants completed a maximal aerobic power test using a modified Bruce incremental treadmill protocol, as well as the on-ice FAST. Normative data were collected on 406 ice hockey players (291 males, 115 females) ranging in age from 9 to 25 y. A regression to predict maximum aerobic power was developed using body mass (kg), height (m), age (y), and maximum completed lengths of the FAST as the significant predictors of skating aerobic power (adjusted R2 = 0.387, SEE = 7.25 mL.kg-1.min-1, p < 0.0001). These results support the application of the FAST in estimating aerobic power among male and female competitive ice hockey players between the ages of 9 and 25 years.

  12. Assessment of Lightning Transients on a De-Iced Rotor Blade with Predictive Tools and Coaxial Return Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillet, S.; Gosmain, A.; Ducoux, W.; Ponçon, M.; Fontaine, G.; Desseix, P.; Perraud, P.

    2012-05-01

    The increasing use of composite materials in aircrafts primary structures has led to different problematics in the field of safety of flight in lightning conditions. The consequences of this technological mutation, which occurs in a parallel context of extension of electrified critical functions, are addressed by aircraft manufacturers through the enhancement of their available assessment means of lightning transient. On the one hand, simulation tools, provided an accurate description of aircraft design, are today valuable assessment tools, in both predictive and operative terms. On the other hand, in-house test means allow confirmation and consolidation of design office hardening solutions. The combined use of predictive simulation tools and in- house test means offers an efficient and reliable support for all aircraft developments in their various life-time stages. The present paper provides PREFACE research project results that illustrate the above introduced strategy on the de-icing system of the NH90 composite main rotor blade.

  13. Elastic parabolic equation and normal mode solutions for seismo-acoustic propagation in underwater environments with ice covers.

    PubMed

    Collis, Jon M; Frank, Scott D; Metzler, Adam M; Preston, Kimberly S

    2016-05-01

    Sound propagation predictions for ice-covered ocean acoustic environments do not match observational data: received levels in nature are less than expected, suggesting that the effects of the ice are substantial. Effects due to elasticity in overlying ice can be significant enough that low-shear approximations, such as effective complex density treatments, may not be appropriate. Building on recent elastic seafloor modeling developments, a range-dependent parabolic equation solution that treats the ice as an elastic medium is presented. The solution is benchmarked against a derived elastic normal mode solution for range-independent underwater acoustic propagation. Results from both solutions accurately predict plate flexural modes that propagate in the ice layer, as well as Scholte interface waves that propagate at the boundary between the water and the seafloor. The parabolic equation solution is used to model a scenario with range-dependent ice thickness and a water sound speed profile similar to those observed during the 2009 Ice Exercise (ICEX) in the Beaufort Sea.

  14. Should coastal planners have concern over where land ice is melting?

    PubMed Central

    Larour, Eric; Ivins, Erik R.; Adhikari, Surendra

    2017-01-01

    There is a general consensus among Earth scientists that melting of land ice greatly contributes to sea-level rise (SLR) and that future warming will exacerbate the risks posed to human civilization. As land ice is lost to the oceans, both the Earth’s gravitational and rotational potentials are perturbed, resulting in strong spatial patterns in SLR, termed sea-level fingerprints. We lack robust forecasting models for future ice changes, which diminishes our ability to use these fingerprints to accurately predict local sea-level (LSL) changes. We exploit an advanced mathematical property of adjoint systems and determine the exact gradient of sea-level fingerprints with respect to local variations in the ice thickness of all of the world’s ice drainage systems. By exhaustively mapping these fingerprint gradients, we form a new diagnosis tool, henceforth referred to as gradient fingerprint mapping (GFM), that readily allows for improved assessments of future coastal inundation or emergence. We demonstrate that for Antarctica and Greenland, changes in the predictions of inundation at major port cities depend on the location of the drainage system. For example, in London, GFM shows LSL that is significantly affected by changes on the western part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), whereas in New York, LSL change predictions are greatly sensitive to changes in the northeastern portions of the GrIS. We apply GFM to 293 major port cities to allow coastal planners to readily calculate LSL change as more reliable predictions of cryospheric mass changes become available. PMID:29152565

  15. Ensemble sea ice forecast for predicting compressive situations in the Baltic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehtiranta, Jonni; Lensu, Mikko; Kokkonen, Iiro; Haapala, Jari

    2017-04-01

    Forecasting of sea ice hazards is important for winter shipping in the Baltic Sea. In current numerical models the ice thickness distribution and drift are captured well, but compressive situations are often missing from forecast products. Its inclusion is requested by the shipping community, as compression poses a threat to ship operations. As compressing ice is capable of stopping ships for days and even damaging them, its inclusion in ice forecasts is vital. However, we have found that compression can not be predicted well in a deterministic forecast, since it can be a local and a quickly changing phenomenon. It is also very sensitive to small changes in the wind speed and direction, the prevailing ice conditions, and the model parameters. Thus, a probabilistic ensemble simulation is needed to produce a meaningful compression forecast. An ensemble model setup was developed in the SafeWIN project for this purpose. It uses the HELMI multicategory ice model, which was amended for making simulations in parallel. The ensemble was built by perturbing the atmospheric forcing and the physical parameters of the ice pack. The model setup will provide probabilistic forecasts for the compression in the Baltic sea ice. Additionally the model setup provides insight into the uncertainties related to different model parameters and their impact on the model results. We have completed several hindcast simulations for the Baltic Sea for verification purposes. These results are shown to match compression reports gathered from ships. In addition, an ensemble forecast is in preoperational testing phase and its first evaluation will be presented in this work.

  16. Airframe Icing Research Gaps: NASA Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potapczuk, Mark

    2009-01-01

    qCurrent Airframe Icing Technology Gaps: Development of a full 3D ice accretion simulation model. Development of an improved simulation model for SLD conditions. CFD modeling of stall behavior for ice-contaminated wings/tails. Computational methods for simulation of stability and control parameters. Analysis of thermal ice protection system performance. Quantification of 3D ice shape geometric characteristics Development of accurate ground-based simulation of SLD conditions. Development of scaling methods for SLD conditions. Development of advanced diagnostic techniques for assessment of tunnel cloud conditions. Identification of critical ice shapes for aerodynamic performance degradation. Aerodynamic scaling issues associated with testing scale model ice shape geometries. Development of altitude scaling methods for thermal ice protections systems. Development of accurate parameter identification methods. Measurement of stability and control parameters for an ice-contaminated swept wing aircraft. Creation of control law modifications to prevent loss of control during icing encounters. 3D ice shape geometries. Collection efficiency data for ice shape geometries. SLD ice shape data, in-flight and ground-based, for simulation verification. Aerodynamic performance data for 3D geometries and various icing conditions. Stability and control parameter data for iced aircraft configurations. Thermal ice protection system data for simulation validation.

  17. Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kauker, F.; Kaminski, T.; Ricker, R.; Toudal-Pedersen, L.; Dybkjaer, G.; Melsheimer, C.; Eastwood, S.; Sumata, H.; Karcher, M.; Gerdes, R.

    2015-10-01

    The recent thinning and shrinking of the Arctic sea ice cover has increased the interest in seasonal sea ice forecasts. Typical tools for such forecasts are numerical models of the coupled ocean sea ice system such as the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Model (NAOSIM). The model uses as input the initial state of the system and the atmospheric boundary condition over the forecasting period. This study investigates the potential of remotely sensed ice thickness observations in constraining the initial model state. For this purpose it employs a variational assimilation system around NAOSIM and the Alfred Wegener Institute's CryoSat-2 ice thickness product in conjunction with the University of Bremen's snow depth product and the OSI SAF ice concentration and sea surface temperature products. We investigate the skill of predictions of the summer ice conditions starting in March for three different years. Straightforward assimilation of the above combination of data streams results in slight improvements over some regions (especially in the Beaufort Sea) but degrades the over-all fit to independent observations. A considerable enhancement of forecast skill is demonstrated for a bias correction scheme for the CryoSat-2 ice thickness product that uses a spatially varying scaling factor.

  18. Advances in heterogeneous ice nucleation research: Theoretical modeling and measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beydoun, Hassan

    In the atmosphere, cloud droplets can remain in a supercooled liquid phase at temperatures as low as -40 °C. Above this temperature, cloud droplets freeze via heterogeneous ice nucleation whereby a rare and poorly understood subset of atmospheric particles catalyze the ice phase transition. As the phase state of clouds is critical in determining their radiative properties and lifetime, deficiencies in our understanding of heterogeneous ice nucleation poses a large uncertainty on our efforts to predict human induced global climate change. Experimental challenges in properly simulating particle-induced freezing processes under atmospherically relevant conditions have largely contributed to the absence of a well-established model and parameterizations that accurately predict heterogeneous ice nucleation. Conversely, the sparsity of reliable measurement techniques available struggle to be interpreted by a single consistent theoretical or empirical framework, which results in layers of uncertainty when attempting to extrapolate useful information regarding ice nucleation for use in atmospheric cloud models. In this dissertation a new framework for describing heterogeneous ice nucleation is developed. Starting from classical nucleation theory, the surface of an ice nucleating particle is treated as a continuum of heterogeneous ice nucleating activity and a particle specific distribution of this activity g is derived. It is hypothesized that an individual particle species exhibits a critical surface area. Above this critical area the ice nucleating activity of a particle species can be described by one g distribution, g, while below it g expresses itself expresses externally resulting in particle to particle variability in ice nucleating activity. The framework is supported by cold plate droplet freezing measurements for dust and biological particles in which the total surface area of particle material available is varied. Freezing spectra above a certain surface area

  19. Do physical maturity and birth date predict talent in male youth ice hockey players?

    PubMed

    Sherar, Lauren B; Baxter-Jones, Adam D G; Faulkner, Robert A; Russell, Keith W

    2007-06-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the relationships among biological maturity, physical size, relative age (i.e. birth date), and selection into a male Canadian provincial age-banded ice hockey team. In 2003, 619 male ice hockey players aged 14-15 years attended Saskatchewan provincial team selection camps, 281 of whom participated in the present study. Data from 93 age-matched controls were obtained from the Saskatchewan Pediatric Bone Mineral Accrual Study (1991-1997). During the initial selection camps, birth dates, heights, sitting heights, and body masses were recorded. Age at peak height velocity, an indicator of biological maturity, was determined in the controls and predicted in the ice hockey players. Data were analysed using one-way analysis of variance, logistic regression, and a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The ice hockey players selected for the final team were taller, heavier, and more mature (P < 0.05) than both the unselected players and the age-matched controls. Furthermore, age at peak height velocity predicted (P < 0.05) being selected at the first and second selection camps. The birth dates of those players selected for the team were positively skewed, with the majority of those selected being born in the months January to June. In conclusion, team selectors appear to preferentially select early maturing male ice hockey players who have birth dates early in the selection year.

  20. Lava heating and loading of ice sheets on early Mars: Predictions for meltwater generation, groundwater recharge, and resulting landforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassanelli, James P.; Head, James W.

    2016-06-01

    Recent modeling studies of the early Mars climate predict a predominantly cold climate, characterized by the formation of regional ice sheets across the highland areas of Mars. Formation of the predicted "icy highlands" ice sheets is coincident with a peak in the volcanic flux of Mars involving the emplacement of the Late Noachian - Early Hesperian ridged plains unit. We explore the relationship between the predicted early Mars "icy highlands" ice sheets, and the extensive early flood volcanism to gain insight into the surface conditions prevalent during the Late Noachian to Early Hesperian transition period. Using Hesperia Planum as a type area, we develop an ice sheet lava heating and loading model. We quantitatively assess the thermal and melting processes involved in the lava heating and loading process following the chronological sequence of lava emplacement. We test a broad range of parameters to thoroughly constrain the lava heating and loading process and outline predictions for the formation of resulting geological features. We apply the theoretical model to a study area within the Hesperia Planum region and assess the observed geology against predictions derived from the ice sheet lava heating and loading model. Due to the highly cratered nature of the Noachian highlands terrain onto which the volcanic plains were emplaced, we predict highly asymmetrical lava loading conditions. Crater interiors are predicted to accumulate greater thicknesses of lava over more rapid timescales, while in the intercrater plains, lava accumulation occurs over longer timescales and does not reach great thicknesses. We find that top-down melting due to conductive heat transfer from supraglacial lava flows is generally limited when the emplaced lava flows are less than ∼10 m thick, but is very significant at lava flow thicknesses of ∼100 m or greater. We find that bottom-up cryosphere and ice sheet melting is most likely to occur within crater interiors where lavas

  1. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takaya, Yuhei; Hirahara, Shoji; Yasuda, Tamaki; Matsueda, Satoko; Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsukawa, Chihiro; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Mori, Hirotoshi; Nagasawa, Ryoji; Kubo, Yutaro; Adachi, Noriyuki; Yamanaka, Goro; Kuragano, Tsurane; Shimpo, Akihiko; Maeda, Shuhei; Ose, Tomoaki

    2018-02-01

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981-2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  2. Development of an analytical method to predict helicopter main rotor performance in icing conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Britton, Randall K.

    1992-01-01

    Historically, certification of a helicopter for flight into known icing conditions was a problem. This is because of the current emphasis on flight testing for verification of system performance. Flight testing in icing conditions is difficult because, in addition to being dangerous and expensive, many times conditions which are sought after cannot be readily found in nature. The problem is compounded for helicopters because of their small range in comparison to many fixed wing aircraft. Thus, helicopters are forced to wait for conditions to occur in a certain region rather than seeking them out. These and other drawbacks to flight testing prompted extreme interest in developing validated alternatives to flight testing. One such alternative is theoretical prediction. It is desirable to have the ability to predict how a helicopter will perform when subjected to icing conditions. Herein, calculations are restricted to the main rotor, and are illustrated. The computational tool used to obtain performance is the lifting line analysis of B65. B65 incorporates experimental data into data banks in order to determine the section lift, drag, and moment characteristics of various airfoils at different Mach numbers and angles of attack. The local flow angle is calculated at user specified radial locations. This flow angle, along with the local Mach number is then cross referenced with the airfoil tables to obtain the local section characteristics. The local characteristics are then integrated together to obtain the entire rotor attributes. Once the clean performance is known, characterization of the type and shape of ice which accretes on the rotor blades is obtained using the analysis of LEWICE. The Interactive Boundary Layer (IBL) method then calculates the 2-D characteristics of the iced airfoil for input into the airfoil data bank of B65. Calculations are restricted to natural ice shedding and it is assumed that no de-icing takes place. Once the new lift, drag, and moment

  3. Predicting the Extent of Summer Sea Ice in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rigor, I. G.; Wallace, J. M.

    2003-12-01

    The summers of 1998 and 2002 had the least sea ice extent (SIE) in the Arctic. These observations seem to agree with the trends noted by Parkinson, et al. (1999, hereafter P99) for the period 1979-1997, but the spatial pattern of these recent decreases in summer SIE were different. The summer trends shown by P99, exhibit large decreases in SIE primarily in the East Siberian Sea (ESS), while the decreases observed during 1998 and 2002 were much larger in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas (BCS). We now show that the trends for the period 1979 - 2002 are much smaller in the ESS than the trends shown by P99, and the largest decreasing trends have shifted from the ESS to the BCS. Rigor, et al. (2002) showed that the changes in SIE that P99 noted were driven by changes in atmospheric circulation related to the phase of the prior winter Arctic Oscillation (AO, Thompson and Wallace, 1998) index. Given that the latest trends in SIE are different than those shown by P99, one could ask whether the affect of the AO on sea ice noted by Rigor, et al. (2002) has also changed, and whether some large scale climate modes other than the AO has influenced the climate of the Arctic Ocean more? To answer these questions, we applied Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on the September SIE data from microwave satellites, and found that the first two modes SIE were most highly correlated to the prior winter AO, and the AO index of the summer months just prior to each September. These modes explain more than 45% of the variance in SIE, and show that the influence of the winter and summer AO dominates Arctic climate from 1979 - 2002. Using data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, we will show that the changes in sea ice extent are primarily driven by dynamic changes in sea ice thickness and discuss the implications for predicting summer SIE.

  4. Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.

    2016-10-01

    As assessed over the period 1979-2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ˜ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

  5. Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hutchings, Jennifer; Joseph, Renu

    2013-09-14

    The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project willmore » facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.« less

  6. Reward sensitivity predicts ice cream-related attentional bias assessed by inattentional blindness.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiaoming; Tao, Qian; Fang, Ya; Cheng, Chen; Hao, Yangyang; Qi, Jianjun; Li, Yu; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Ying; Zhang, Xiaochu

    2015-06-01

    The cognitive mechanism underlying the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving is unknown. The present study explored the mechanism by examining the role of reward sensitivity in attentional bias toward ice cream cues. Forty-nine college students who displayed high level of ice cream craving (HICs) and 46 who displayed low level of ice cream craving (LICs) performed an inattentional blindness (IB) task which was used to assess attentional bias for ice cream. In addition, reward sensitivity and coping style were assessed by the Behavior Inhibition System/Behavior Activation System Scales and Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire. Results showed significant higher identification rate of the critical stimulus in the HICs than LICs, suggesting greater attentional bias for ice cream in the HICs. It was indicated that attentional bias for food cues persisted even under inattentional condition. Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between the attentional bias and reward sensitivity after controlling for coping style, and reward sensitivity predicted attentional bias for food cues. The mediation analyses showed that attentional bias mediated the relationship between reward sensitivity and food craving. Those findings suggest that the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving may be attributed to attentional bias for food-related cues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Ionospheric Correction of InSAR for Accurate Ice Motion Mapping at High Latitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, H.; Meyer, F. J.

    2016-12-01

    Monitoring the motion of the large ice sheets is of great importance for determining ice mass balance and its contribution to sea level rise. Recently the first comprehensive ice motion of the Greenland and the Antarctica have been generated with InSAR. However, these studies have indicated that the performance of InSAR-based ice motion mapping is limited by the presence of the ionosphere. This is particularly true at high latitudes and for low-frequency SAR data. Filter-based and empirical methods (e.g., removing polynomials), which have often been used to mitigate ionospheric effects, are often ineffective in these areas due to the typically strong spatial variability of ionospheric phase delay in high latitudes and due to the risk of removing true deformation signals from the observations. In this study, we will first present an outline of our split-spectrum InSAR-based ionospheric correction approach and particularly highlight how our method improves upon published techniques, such as the multiple sub-band approach to boost estimation accuracy as well as advanced error correction and filtering algorithms. We applied our work flow to a large number of ionosphere-affected dataset over the large ice sheets to estimate the benefit of ionospheric correction on ice motion mapping accuracy. Appropriate test sites over Greenland and the Antarctic have been chosen through cooperation with authors (UW, Ian Joughin) of previous ice motion studies. To demonstrate the magnitude of ionospheric noise and to showcase the performance of ionospheric correction, we will show examples of ionospheric-affected InSAR data and our ionosphere corrected result for comparison in visual. We also compared the corrected phase data to known ice velocity fields quantitatively for the analyzed areas from experts in ice velocity mapping. From our studies we found that ionospheric correction significantly reduces biases in ice velocity estimates and boosts accuracy by a factor that depends on a

  8. Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flegel, Ashlie B.

    2017-01-01

    Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion system's core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.

  9. Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flegel, Ashlie B.

    2017-01-01

    Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion systems core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.

  10. Molecular Origin of the Vibrational Structure of Ice Ih.

    PubMed

    Moberg, Daniel R; Straight, Shelby C; Knight, Christopher; Paesani, Francesco

    2017-06-15

    An unambiguous assignment of the vibrational spectra of ice I h remains a matter of debate. This study demonstrates that an accurate representation of many-body interactions between water molecules, combined with an explicit treatment of nuclear quantum effects through many-body molecular dynamics (MB-MD), leads to a unified interpretation of the vibrational spectra of ice I h in terms of the structure and dynamics of the underlying hydrogen-bond network. All features of the infrared and Raman spectra in the OH stretching region can be unambiguously assigned by taking into account both the symmetry and the delocalized nature of the lattice vibrations as well as the local electrostatic environment experienced by each water molecule within the crystal. The high level of agreement with experiment raises prospects for predictive MB-MD simulations that, complementing analogous measurements, will provide molecular-level insights into fundamental processes taking place in bulk ice and on ice surfaces under different thermodynamic conditions.

  11. Predictions replaced by facts: a keystone species' behavioural responses to declining arctic sea-ice.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Charmain D; Lydersen, Christian; Ims, Rolf A; Kovacs, Kit M

    2015-11-01

    Since the first documentation of climate-warming induced declines in arctic sea-ice, predictions have been made regarding the expected negative consequences for endemic marine mammals. But, several decades later, little hard evidence exists regarding the responses of these animals to the ongoing environmental changes. Herein, we report the first empirical evidence of a dramatic shift in movement patterns and foraging behaviour of the arctic endemic ringed seal (Pusa hispida), before and after a major collapse in sea-ice in Svalbard, Norway. Among other changes to the ice-regime, this collapse shifted the summer position of the marginal ice zone from over the continental shelf, northward to the deep Arctic Ocean Basin. Following this change, which is thought to be a 'tipping point', subadult ringed seals swam greater distances, showed less area-restricted search behaviour, dived for longer periods, exhibited shorter surface intervals, rested less on sea-ice and did less diving directly beneath the ice during post-moulting foraging excursions. In combination, these behavioural changes suggest increased foraging effort and thus also likely increases in the energetic costs of finding food. Continued declines in sea-ice are likely to result in distributional changes, range reductions and population declines in this keystone arctic species. © 2015 The Author(s).

  12. Modeling of scattering from ice surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahlberg, Michael Ross

    Theoretical research is proposed to study electromagnetic wave scattering from ice surfaces. A mathematical formulation that is more representative of the electromagnetic scattering from ice, with volume mechanisms included, and capable of handling multiple scattering effects is developed. This research is essential to advancing the field of environmental science and engineering by enabling more accurate inversion of remote sensing data. The results of this research contributed towards a more accurate representation of the scattering from ice surfaces, that is computationally more efficient and that can be applied to many remote-sensing applications.

  13. Impact of the initialisation on the predictability of the Southern Ocean sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

    2014-05-01

    In this study, we assess systematically the impact of different initialisation procedures on the predictability of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. These initialisation strategies are based on three data assimilation methods: the nudging, the particle filter with sequential resampling and the nudging proposal particle filter. An Earth-system model of intermediate complexity has been used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictability of the Southern Ocean sea ice is estimated through two aspects: the spread of the hindcast ensemble, indicating the uncertainty on the ensemble, and the correlation between the ensemble mean and the pseudo-observations, used to assess the accuracy of the prediction. Our results show that, at decadal timescales, more sophisticated data assimilation methods as well as denser pseudo-observations used to initialise the hindcasts decrease the spread of the ensemble but improve only slightly the accuracy of the prediction of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Overall, the predictability at interannual timescales is limited, at most, to three years ahead. At multi-decadal timescales, there is a clear improvement of the correlation of the trend in sea ice extent between the hindcasts and the pseudo-observations if the initialisation takes into account the pseudo-observations. The correlation reaches values larger than 0.5 and is due to the inertia of the ocean, showing the importance of the quality of the initialisation below the sea ice.

  14. A model predicting the evolution of ice particle size spectra and radiative properties of cirrus clouds. Part 2: Dependence of absorption and extinction on ice crystal morphology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, David L.; Arnott, W. Patrick

    1994-01-01

    This study builds upon the microphysical modeling described in Part 1 by deriving formulations for the extinction and absorption coefficients in terms of the size distribution parameters predicted from the micro-physical model. The optical depth and single scatter albedo of a cirrus cloud can then be determined, which, along with the asymmetry parameter, are the input parameters needed by cloud radiation models. Through the use of anomalous diffraction theory, analytical expressions were developed describing the absorption and extinction coefficients and the single scatter albedo as functions of size distribution parameters, ice crystal shapes (or habits), wavelength, and refractive index. The extinction coefficient was formulated in terms of the projected area of the size distribution, while the absorption coefficient was formulated in terms of both the projected area and mass of the size distribution. These properties were formulated as explicit functions of ice crystal geometry and were not based on an 'effective radius.' Based on simulations of the second cirrus case study described in Part 1, absorption coefficients predicted in the near infrared for hexagonal columns and rosettes were up to 47% and 71% lower, respectively, than absorption coefficients predicted by using equivalent area spheres. This resulted in single scatter albedos in the near-infrared that were considerably greater than those predicted by the equivalent area sphere method. Reflectances in this region should therefore be underestimated using the equivalent area sphere approach. Cloud optical depth was found to depend on ice crystal habit. When the simulated cirrus cloud contained only bullet rosettes, the optical depth was 142% greater than when the cloud contained only hexagonal columns. This increase produced a doubling in cloud albedo. In the near-infrared (IR), the single scatter albedo also exhibited a significant dependence on ice crystal habit. More research is needed on the

  15. Compression experiments on artificial, alpine and marine ice: implications for ice-shelf/continental interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dierckx, Marie; Goossens, Thomas; Samyn, Denis; Tison, Jean-Louis

    2010-05-01

    Antarctic ice shelves are important components of continental ice dynamics, in that they control grounded ice flow towards the ocean. As such, Antarctic ice shelves are a key parameter to the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet in the context of global change. Marine ice, formed by sea water accretion beneath some ice shelves, displays distinct physical (grain textures, bubble content, ...) and chemical (salinity, isotopic composition, ...) characteristics as compared to glacier ice and sea ice. The aim is to refine Glen's flow relation (generally used for ice behaviour in deformation) under various parameters (temperature, salinity, debris, grain size ...) to improve deformation laws used in dynamic ice shelf models, which would then give more accurate and / or realistic predictions on ice shelf stability. To better understand the mechanical properties of natural ice, deformation experiments were performed on ice samples in laboratory, using a pneumatic compression device. To do so, we developed a custom built compression rig operated by pneumatic drives. It has been designed for performing uniaxial compression tests at constant load and under unconfined conditions. The operating pressure ranges from about 0.5 to 10 Bars. This allows modifying the experimental conditions to match the conditions found at the grounding zone (in the 1 Bar range). To maintain the ice at low temperature, the samples are immersed in a Silicone oil bath connected to an external refrigeration system. During the experiments, the vertical displacement of the piston and the applied force is measured by sensors which are connected to a digital acquisition system. We started our experiments with artificial ice and went on with continental ice samples from glaciers in the Alps. The first results allowed us to acquire realistic mechanical data for natural ice. Ice viscosity was calculated for different types of artificial ice, using Glen's flow law, and showed the importance of impurities

  16. Accurate determination of surface reference data in digital photographs in ice-free surfaces of Maritime Antarctica.

    PubMed

    Pina, Pedro; Vieira, Gonçalo; Bandeira, Lourenço; Mora, Carla

    2016-12-15

    The ice-free areas of Maritime Antarctica show complex mosaics of surface covers, with wide patches of diverse bare soils and rock, together with various vegetation communities dominated by lichens and mosses. The microscale variability is difficult to characterize and quantify, but is essential for ground-truthing and for defining classifiers for large areas using, for example high resolution satellite imagery, or even ultra-high resolution unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery. The main objective of this paper is to verify the ability and robustness of an automated approach to discriminate the variety of surface types in digital photographs acquired at ground level in ice-free regions of Maritime Antarctica. The proposed method is based on an object-based classification procedure built in two main steps: first, on the automated delineation of homogeneous regions (the objects) of the images through the watershed transform with adequate filtering to avoid an over-segmentation, and second, on labelling each identified object with a supervised decision classifier trained with samples of representative objects of ice-free surface types (bare rock, bare soil, moss and lichen formations). The method is evaluated with images acquired in summer campaigns in Fildes and Barton peninsulas (King George Island, South Shetlands). The best performances for the datasets of the two peninsulas are achieved with a SVM classifier with overall accuracies of about 92% and kappa values around 0.89. The excellent performances allow validating the adequacy of the approach for obtaining accurate surface reference data at the complete pixel scale (sub-metric) of current very high resolution (VHR) satellite images, instead of a common single point sampling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Modeling Commercial Turbofan Engine Icing Risk With Ice Crystal Ingestion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.

    2013-01-01

    flight. The computational tool was utilized to help guide a portion of the PSL testing, and was used to predict ice accretion could also occur at significantly lower altitudes. The predictions were qualitatively verified by subsequent testing of the engine in the PSL. The PSL test has helped to calibrate the engine icing computational tool to assess the risk of ice accretion. The results from the computer simulation identified prevalent trends in wet bulb temperature, ice particle melt ratio, and engine inlet temperature as a function of altitude for predicting engine icing risk due to ice crystal ingestion.

  18. An Experimental Investigation on Bio-inspired Icephobic Coatings for Aircraft Icing Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Hui; Li, Haixing; Waldman, Rye

    2016-11-01

    By leveraging the Icing Research Tunnel available at Iowa State University (ISU-IRT), a series of experimental investigations were conducted to elucidate the underlying physics pertinent to aircraft icing phenomena. A suite of advanced flow diagnostic techniques, which include high-speed photographic imaging, digital image projection (DIP), and infrared (IR) imaging thermometry, were developed and applied to quantify the transient behavior of water droplet impingement, wind-driven surface water runback, unsteady heat transfer and dynamic ice accreting process over the surfaces of airfoil/wing models. The icephobic performance of various bio-inspired superhydrophobic coatings were evaluated quantitatively at different icing conditions. The findings derived from the icing physics studies can be used to improve current icing accretion models for more accurate prediction of ice formation and accretion on aircraft wings and to develop effective anti-/deicing strategies for safer and more efficient operation of aircraft in cold weather. The research work is partially supported by NASA with Grant Number NNX12AC21A and National Science Foundation under Award Numbers of CBET-1064196 and CBET-1435590.

  19. Imaging radar studies of polar ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carsey, Frank

    1993-01-01

    A vugraph format presentation is given. The following topics are discussed: scientific overview, radar data opportunities, sea ice investigations, and ice sheet investigations. The Sea Ice Scientific Objectives are as follows: (1) to estimate globally the surface brine generation, heat flux, and fresh water advection (as ice); (2) to monitor phasing of seasonal melt and freeze events and accurately estimate melt and growth rates; and (3) to develop improved treatment of momentum transfer and ice mechanics in coupled air-sea-ice models.

  20. Investigating the Sensitivity of Nucleation Parameterization on Ice Growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaudet, L.; Sulia, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    The accurate prediction of precipitation from lake-effect snow events associated with the Great Lakes region depends on the parameterization of thermodynamic and microphysical processes, including the formation and subsequent growth of frozen hydrometeors. More specifically, the formation of ice hydrometeors has been represented through varying forms of ice nucleation parameterizations considering the different nucleation modes (e.g., deposition, condensation-freezing, homogeneous). These parameterizations have been developed from in-situ measurements and laboratory observations. A suite of nucleation parameterizations consisting of those published in Meyers et al. (1992) and DeMott et al. (2010) as well as varying ice nuclei data sources are coupled with the Adaptive Habit Model (AHM, Harrington et al. 2013), a microphysics module where ice crystal aspect ratio and density are predicted and evolve in time. Simulations are run with the AHM which is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the effect of ice nucleation parameterization on the non-spherical growth and evolution of ice crystals and the subsequent effects on liquid-ice cloud-phase partitioning. Specific lake-effect storms that were observed during the Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign (Kristovich et al. 2017) are examined to elucidate this potential microphysical effect. Analysis of these modeled events is aided by dual-polarization radar data from the WSR-88D in Montague, New York (KTYX). This enables a comparison of the modeled and observed polarmetric and microphysical profiles of the lake-effect clouds, which involves investigating signatures of reflectivity, specific differential phase, correlation coefficient, and differential reflectivity. Microphysical features of lake-effect bands, such as ice, snow, and liquid mixing ratios, ice crystal aspect ratio, and ice density are analyzed to understand signatures in the aforementioned modeled

  1. Modern Airfoil Ice Accretions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Potapczuk, Mark G.; Sheldon, David W.

    1997-01-01

    This report presents results from the first icing tests performed in the Modem Airfoils program. Two airfoils have been subjected to icing tests in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). Both airfoils were two dimensional airfoils; one was representative of a commercial transport airfoil while the other was representative of a business jet airfoil. The icing test conditions were selected from the FAR Appendix C envelopes. Effects on aerodynamic performance are presented including the effects of varying amounts of glaze ice as well as the effects of approximately the same amounts of glaze, mixed, and rime ice. Actual ice shapes obtained in these tests are also presented for these cases. In addition, comparisons are shown between ice shapes from the tests and ice shapes predicted by the computer code, LEWICE for similar conditions. Significant results from the tests are that relatively small amounts of ice can have nearly as much effect on airfoil lift coefficient as much greater amounts of ice and that glaze ice usually has a more detrimental effect than either rime or mixed ice. LEWICE predictions of ice shapes, in general, compared reasonably well with ice shapes obtained in the IRT, although differences in details of the ice shapes were observed.

  2. Implementing an empirical scalar constitutive relation for ice with flow-induced polycrystalline anisotropy in large-scale ice sheet models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, Felicity S.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Warner, Roland C.; Treverrow, Adam

    2018-03-01

    The microstructure of polycrystalline ice evolves under prolonged deformation, leading to anisotropic patterns of crystal orientations. The response of this material to applied stresses is not adequately described by the ice flow relation most commonly used in large-scale ice sheet models - the Glen flow relation. We present a preliminary assessment of the implementation in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) of a computationally efficient, empirical, scalar, constitutive relation which addresses the influence of the dynamically steady-state flow-compatible induced anisotropic crystal orientation patterns that develop when ice is subjected to the same stress regime for a prolonged period - sometimes termed tertiary flow. We call this the ESTAR flow relation. The effect on ice flow dynamics is investigated by comparing idealised simulations using ESTAR and Glen flow relations, where we include in the latter an overall flow enhancement factor. For an idealised embayed ice shelf, the Glen flow relation overestimates velocities by up to 17 % when using an enhancement factor equivalent to the maximum value prescribed in the ESTAR relation. Importantly, no single Glen enhancement factor can accurately capture the spatial variations in flow across the ice shelf generated by the ESTAR flow relation. For flow line studies of idealised grounded flow over varying topography or variable basal friction - both scenarios dominated at depth by bed-parallel shear - the differences between simulated velocities using ESTAR and Glen flow relations depend on the value of the enhancement factor used to calibrate the Glen flow relation. These results demonstrate the importance of describing the deformation of anisotropic ice in a physically realistic manner, and have implications for simulations of ice sheet evolution used to reconstruct paleo-ice sheet extent and predict future ice sheet contributions to sea level.

  3. Molecular origin of the vibrational structure of ice I h

    DOE PAGES

    Moberg, Daniel R.; Straight, Shelby C.; Knight, Christopher; ...

    2017-05-25

    Here, an unambiguous assignment of the vibrational spectra of ice I h remains a matter of debate. This study demonstrates that an accurate representation of many-body interactions between water molecules, combined with an explicit treatment of nuclear quantum effects through many-body molecular dynamics (MB-MD), leads to a unified interpretation of the vibrational spectra of ice I h in terms of the structure and dynamics of the underlying hydrogen-bond network. All features of the infrared and Raman spectra in the OH stretching region can be unambiguously assigned by taking into account both the symmetry and the delocalized nature of the latticemore » vibrations as well as the local electrostatic environment experienced by each water molecule within the crystal. The high level of agreement with experiment raises prospects for predictive MB-MD simulations that, complementing analogous measurements, will provide molecular-level insights into fundamental processes taking place in bulk ice and on ice surfaces under different thermodynamic conditions.« less

  4. Accurate Prediction of Motor Failures by Application of Multi CBM Tools: A Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dutta, Rana; Singh, Veerendra Pratap; Dwivedi, Jai Prakash

    2018-02-01

    Motor failures are very difficult to predict accurately with a single condition-monitoring tool as both electrical and the mechanical systems are closely related. Electrical problem, like phase unbalance, stator winding insulation failures can, at times, lead to vibration problem and at the same time mechanical failures like bearing failure, leads to rotor eccentricity. In this case study of a 550 kW blower motor it has been shown that a rotor bar crack was detected by current signature analysis and vibration monitoring confirmed the same. In later months in a similar motor vibration monitoring predicted bearing failure and current signature analysis confirmed the same. In both the cases, after dismantling the motor, the predictions were found to be accurate. In this paper we will be discussing the accurate predictions of motor failures through use of multi condition monitoring tools with two case studies.

  5. Assimilation of sea ice concentration data in the Arctic via DART/CICE5 in the CESM1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.; Bitz, C. M.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Hendricks, J.; Hoar, T. J.; Raeder, K.

    2016-12-01

    Arctic sea ice cover has been experiencing significant reduction in the past few decades. Climate models predict that the Arctic Ocean may be ice-free in late summer within a few decades. Better sea ice prediction is crucial for regional and global climate prediction that are vital to human activities such as maritime shipping and subsistence hunting, as well as wildlife protection as animals face habitat loss. The physical processes involved with the persistence and re-emergence of sea ice cover are found to extend the predictability of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness at the regional scale up to several years. This motivates us to investigate sea ice predictability stemming from initial values of the sea ice cover. Data assimilation is a useful technique to combine observations and model forecasts to reconstruct the states of sea ice in the past and provide more accurate initial conditions for sea ice prediction. This work links the most recent version of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE5) within the Community Earth System Model version 1.5 (CESM1.5) and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The linked DART/CICE5 is ideal to assimilate multi-scale and multivariate sea ice observations using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The study is focused on the assimilation of SIC data that impact SIC, sea ice thickness, and snow thickness. The ensemble sea ice model states are constructed by introducing uncertainties in atmospheric forcing and key model parameters. The ensemble atmospheric forcing is a reanalysis product generated with DART and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). We also perturb two model parameters that are found to contribute significantly to the model uncertainty in previous studies. This study applies perfect model observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to investigate data assimilation algorithms and post-processing methods. One of the ensemble members of a CICE5 free run is chosen as the truth. Daily synthetic

  6. Retention of ice-associated amphipods: possible consequences for an ice-free Arctic Ocean.

    PubMed

    Berge, J; Varpe, O; Moline, M A; Wold, A; Renaud, P E; Daase, M; Falk-Petersen, S

    2012-12-23

    Recent studies predict that the Arctic Ocean will have ice-free summers within the next 30 years. This poses a significant challenge for the marine organisms associated with the Arctic sea ice, such as marine mammals and, not least, the ice-associated crustaceans generally considered to spend their entire life on the underside of the Arctic sea ice. Based upon unique samples collected within the Arctic Ocean during the polar night, we provide a new conceptual understanding of an intimate connection between these under-ice crustaceans and the deep Arctic Ocean currents. We suggest that downwards vertical migrations, followed by polewards transport in deep ocean currents, are an adaptive trait of ice fauna that both increases survival during ice-free periods of the year and enables re-colonization of sea ice when they ascend within the Arctic Ocean. From an evolutionary perspective, this may have been an adaptation allowing success in a seasonally ice-covered Arctic. Our findings may ultimately change the perception of ice fauna as a biota imminently threatened by the predicted disappearance of perennial sea ice.

  7. Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ono, Jun; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Komuro, Yoshiki; Nodzu, Masato I.; Ishii, Masayoshi

    2018-02-01

    To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times up to three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialised with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 11 months ahead (anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.42). This skill might be attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. A plausible mechanism is as follows: the subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to two months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas initialised in July, as suggested by previous studies.

  8. Where's the Water in (Salty) Ice?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahan, T.; Malley, P.

    2017-12-01

    Solutes can have large effects on reactivity in ice and at ice surfaces. Freeze concentration ("the salting out effect") forms liquid regions containing high solute concentrations surrounded by relatively solute-free ice. Thermodynamics can predict the fraction of ice that is liquid for a given temperature and (pre-frozen) solute concentration, as well as the solute concentration within these liquid regions, but they do not inform on the spatial distribution of the solutes and the liquid regions within the ice. This leads to significant uncertainty in predictions of reaction kinetics in ice and at ice surfaces. We have used Raman microscopy to determine the location of liquid regions within ice and at ice surface in the presence of sodium chloride (NaCl). Under most conditions, liquid channels are observed at the ice surface and throughout the ice bulk. The fraction of the ice that is liquid, as well as the widths of these channels, increases with increasing temperature. Below the eutectic temperature (-21.1 oC), no liquid is observed. Patches of NaCl.2H2O ("hydrohalite") are observed at the ice surface under these conditions. These results will improve predictions of reaction kinetics in ice and at ice surfaces.

  9. Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Marx, Lawrence; Wu, Xingren; Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Zhang, Shaoqing; Lu, Jian; Schneider, Edwin K.; Kinter, James L., III

    2015-01-01

    There are potential advantages to extending operational seasonal forecast models to predict decadal variability but major efforts are required to assess the model fidelity for this task. In this study, we examine the North Atlantic climate simulated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), using a set of ensemble decadal hindcasts and several 30-year simulations initialized from realistic ocean-atmosphere states. It is found that a substantial climate drift occurs in the first few years of the CFSv2 hindcasts, which represents a major systematic bias and may seriously affect the model's fidelity for decadal prediction. In particular, it is noted that a major reduction of the upper ocean salinity in the northern North Atlantic weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) significantly. This freshening is likely caused by the excessive freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean and weakened subtropical water transport by the North Atlantic Current. A potential source of the excessive freshwater is the quick melting of sea ice, which also causes unrealistically thin ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. Our sensitivity experiments with adjusted sea ice albedo parameters produce a sustainable ice cover with realistic thickness distribution. It also leads to a moderate increase of the AMOC strength. This study suggests that a realistic freshwater balance, including a proper sea ice feedback, is crucial for simulating the North Atlantic climate and its variability.

  10. Radiomics biomarkers for accurate tumor progression prediction of oropharyngeal cancer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadjiiski, Lubomir; Chan, Heang-Ping; Cha, Kenny H.; Srinivasan, Ashok; Wei, Jun; Zhou, Chuan; Prince, Mark; Papagerakis, Silvana

    2017-03-01

    Accurate tumor progression prediction for oropharyngeal cancers is crucial for identifying patients who would best be treated with optimized treatment and therefore minimize the risk of under- or over-treatment. An objective decision support system that can merge the available radiomics, histopathologic and molecular biomarkers in a predictive model based on statistical outcomes of previous cases and machine learning may assist clinicians in making more accurate assessment of oropharyngeal tumor progression. In this study, we evaluated the feasibility of developing individual and combined predictive models based on quantitative image analysis from radiomics, histopathology and molecular biomarkers for oropharyngeal tumor progression prediction. With IRB approval, 31, 84, and 127 patients with head and neck CT (CT-HN), tumor tissue microarrays (TMAs) and molecular biomarker expressions, respectively, were collected. For 8 of the patients all 3 types of biomarkers were available and they were sequestered in a test set. The CT-HN lesions were automatically segmented using our level sets based method. Morphological, texture and molecular based features were extracted from CT-HN and TMA images, and selected features were merged by a neural network. The classification accuracy was quantified using the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Test AUCs of 0.87, 0.74, and 0.71 were obtained with the individual predictive models based on radiomics, histopathologic, and molecular features, respectively. Combining the radiomics and molecular models increased the test AUC to 0.90. Combining all 3 models increased the test AUC further to 0.94. This preliminary study demonstrates that the individual domains of biomarkers are useful and the integrated multi-domain approach is most promising for tumor progression prediction.

  11. SCPRED: accurate prediction of protein structural class for sequences of twilight-zone similarity with predicting sequences.

    PubMed

    Kurgan, Lukasz; Cios, Krzysztof; Chen, Ke

    2008-05-01

    Protein structure prediction methods provide accurate results when a homologous protein is predicted, while poorer predictions are obtained in the absence of homologous templates. However, some protein chains that share twilight-zone pairwise identity can form similar folds and thus determining structural similarity without the sequence similarity would be desirable for the structure prediction. The folding type of a protein or its domain is defined as the structural class. Current structural class prediction methods that predict the four structural classes defined in SCOP provide up to 63% accuracy for the datasets in which sequence identity of any pair of sequences belongs to the twilight-zone. We propose SCPRED method that improves prediction accuracy for sequences that share twilight-zone pairwise similarity with sequences used for the prediction. SCPRED uses a support vector machine classifier that takes several custom-designed features as its input to predict the structural classes. Based on extensive design that considers over 2300 index-, composition- and physicochemical properties-based features along with features based on the predicted secondary structure and content, the classifier's input includes 8 features based on information extracted from the secondary structure predicted with PSI-PRED and one feature computed from the sequence. Tests performed with datasets of 1673 protein chains, in which any pair of sequences shares twilight-zone similarity, show that SCPRED obtains 80.3% accuracy when predicting the four SCOP-defined structural classes, which is superior when compared with over a dozen recent competing methods that are based on support vector machine, logistic regression, and ensemble of classifiers predictors. The SCPRED can accurately find similar structures for sequences that share low identity with sequence used for the prediction. The high predictive accuracy achieved by SCPRED is attributed to the design of the features, which are

  12. SCPRED: Accurate prediction of protein structural class for sequences of twilight-zone similarity with predicting sequences

    PubMed Central

    Kurgan, Lukasz; Cios, Krzysztof; Chen, Ke

    2008-01-01

    Background Protein structure prediction methods provide accurate results when a homologous protein is predicted, while poorer predictions are obtained in the absence of homologous templates. However, some protein chains that share twilight-zone pairwise identity can form similar folds and thus determining structural similarity without the sequence similarity would be desirable for the structure prediction. The folding type of a protein or its domain is defined as the structural class. Current structural class prediction methods that predict the four structural classes defined in SCOP provide up to 63% accuracy for the datasets in which sequence identity of any pair of sequences belongs to the twilight-zone. We propose SCPRED method that improves prediction accuracy for sequences that share twilight-zone pairwise similarity with sequences used for the prediction. Results SCPRED uses a support vector machine classifier that takes several custom-designed features as its input to predict the structural classes. Based on extensive design that considers over 2300 index-, composition- and physicochemical properties-based features along with features based on the predicted secondary structure and content, the classifier's input includes 8 features based on information extracted from the secondary structure predicted with PSI-PRED and one feature computed from the sequence. Tests performed with datasets of 1673 protein chains, in which any pair of sequences shares twilight-zone similarity, show that SCPRED obtains 80.3% accuracy when predicting the four SCOP-defined structural classes, which is superior when compared with over a dozen recent competing methods that are based on support vector machine, logistic regression, and ensemble of classifiers predictors. Conclusion The SCPRED can accurately find similar structures for sequences that share low identity with sequence used for the prediction. The high predictive accuracy achieved by SCPRED is attributed to the design of

  13. Predicting the Geothermal Heat Flux in Greenland: A Machine Learning Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rezvanbehbahani, Soroush; Stearns, Leigh A.; Kadivar, Amir; Walker, J. Doug; van der Veen, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is a crucial boundary condition for making accurate predictions of ice sheet mass loss, yet it is poorly known in Greenland due to inaccessibility of the bedrock. Here we use a machine learning algorithm on a large collection of relevant geologic features and global GHF measurements and produce a GHF map of Greenland that we argue is within ˜15% accuracy. The main features of our predicted GHF map include a large region with high GHF in central-north Greenland surrounding the NorthGRIP ice core site, and hot spots in the Jakobshavn Isbræ catchment, upstream of Petermann Gletscher, and near the terminus of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glacier. Our model also captures the trajectory of Greenland movement over the Icelandic plume by predicting a stripe of elevated GHF in central-east Greenland. Finally, we show that our model can produce substantially more accurate predictions if additional measurements of GHF in Greenland are provided.

  14. Coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling to investigate ocean driven melting of marine ice sheets in Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jong, Lenneke; Gladstone, Rupert; Galton-Fenzi, Ben

    2017-04-01

    Ocean induced melting below the ice shelves of marine ice sheets is a major source of uncertainty for predictions of ice mass loss and Antarctica's resultant contribution to future sea level rise. The floating ice shelves provide a buttressing force against the flow of ice across the grounding line into the ocean. Thinning of these ice shelves due to an increase in melting reduces this force and can lead to an increase in the discharge of grounded ice. Fully coupled modelling of ice sheet-ocean interactions is key to improving understanding the influence of the Southern ocean on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, and to predicting its future behaviour under changing climate conditions. Coupling of ocean and ice sheet models is needed to provide more realistic melt rates at the base of ice shelves and hence make better predictions of the behaviour of the grounding line and the shape of the ice-shelf cavity as the ice sheet evolves. The Framework for Ice Sheet - Ocean Coupling (FISOC) has been developed to provide a flexible platform for performing coupled ice sheet - ocean modelling experiments. We present preliminary results using FISOC to couple the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with Elmer/Ice in idealised experiments Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP). These experiments use an idealised geometry motivated by that of Pine Island glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, a region which has shown shown signs of thinning ice and grounding line retreat.

  15. The Antarctic Ice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radok, Uwe

    1985-01-01

    The International Antarctic Glaciological Project has collected information on the East Antarctic ice sheet since 1969. Analysis of ice cores revealed climatic history, and radar soundings helped map bedrock of the continent. Computer models of the ice sheet and its changes over time will aid in predicting the future. (DH)

  16. Role of ice sheet dynamics in the collapse of the early-Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matero, I. S. O.; Gregoire, L. J.; Cornford, S. L.; Ivanovic, R. F.

    2017-12-01

    The last stage of the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the early Holocene Thermal Maximum ( 9000 to 7000 years ago) provides an analogy and insight to the possible responses of contemporary ice sheets in a warming climate. What makes LIS particularly interesting is that meltwater from the collapse of an ice saddle over Hudson Bay was recently shown to be the primary forcing for the period of abrupt northern hemisphere cooling known as the 8.2 ka event. The evolution of the LIS during this period was likely influenced by its interaction with marginal lakes and the ocean, and its major ice stream, which exported ice towards Hudson Strait. Accurately simulating the early Holocene LIS evolution thus requires a model such as BISICLES, capable of accurately and efficiently resolving ice stream dynamics and grounding line migration thanks to the combined use of higher order physics and adaptive mesh refinement. We drive the BISICLES model using a positive degree day mass balance scheme with monthly precipitation and temperature from the HadCM3 climate model under climatic conditions from 10,000 to 8,000 years ago. We test the effect of varying the initial topographies and ice thicknesses from different timeslices in the ICE-6Gc reconstruction. We also test different parameterisations for the basal friction based on the thicknesses of the underlying sediments. These simulations evaluate the role of the Hudson Strait ice stream, ice sheet dynamics and interactions with the adjacent proglacial Lake Agassiz and North Atlantic Ocean in the collapse of the LIS. Our results highlight that the choice of parameterisation for basal friction has major effects on ice sheet dynamics and evolution.

  17. Satellite remote sensing over ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, R. H.

    1984-01-01

    Satellite remote sensing provides unique opportunities for observing ice-covered terrain. Passive-microwave data give information on snow extent on land, sea-ice extent and type, and zones of summer melting on the polar ice sheets, with the potential for estimating snow-accumulation rates on these ice sheets. All weather, high-resolution imagery of sea ice is obtained using synthetic aperture radars, and ice-movement vectors can be deduced by comparing sequential images of the same region. Radar-altimetry data provide highly detailed information on ice-sheet topography, with the potential for deducing thickening/thinning rates from repeat surveys. The coastline of Antarctica can be mapped accurately using altimetry data, and the size and spatial distribution of icebergs can be monitored. Altimetry data also distinguish open ocean from pack ice and they give an indication of sea-ice characteristics.

  18. Satellite remote sensing over ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, R. H.

    1986-01-01

    Satellite remote sensing provides unique opportunities for observing ice-covered terrain. Passive-microwave data give information on snow extent on land, sea-ice extent and type, and zones of summer melting on the polar ice sheets, with the potential for estimating snow-accumulation rates on these ice sheets. All weather, high-resolution imagery of sea ice is obtained using synthetic aperture radars, and ice-movement vectors can be deduced by comparing sequential images of the same region. Radar-altimetry data provide highly detailed information on ice-sheet topography, with the potential for deducing thickening/thinning rates from repeat surveys. The coastline of Antarctica can be mapped accurately using altimetry data, and the size and spatial distribution of icebergs can be monitored. Altimetry data also distinguish open ocean from pack ice and they give an indication of sea-ice characteristics.

  19. Arctic sea-ice diffusion from observed and simulated Lagrangian trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rampal, Pierre; Bouillon, Sylvain; Bergh, Jon; Ólason, Einar

    2016-07-01

    We characterize sea-ice drift by applying a Lagrangian diffusion analysis to buoy trajectories from the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) dataset and from two different models: the standalone Lagrangian sea-ice model neXtSIM and the Eulerian coupled ice-ocean model used for the TOPAZ reanalysis. By applying the diffusion analysis to the IABP buoy trajectories over the period 1979-2011, we confirm that sea-ice diffusion follows two distinct regimes (ballistic and Brownian) and we provide accurate values for the diffusivity and integral timescale that could be used in Eulerian or Lagrangian passive tracers models to simulate the transport and diffusion of particles moving with the ice. We discuss how these values are linked to the evolution of the fluctuating displacements variance and how this information could be used to define the size of the search area around the position predicted by the mean drift. By comparing observed and simulated sea-ice trajectories for three consecutive winter seasons (2007-2011), we show how the characteristics of the simulated motion may differ from or agree well with observations. This comparison illustrates the usefulness of first applying a diffusion analysis to evaluate the output of modeling systems that include a sea-ice model before using these in, e.g., oil spill trajectory models or, more generally, to simulate the transport of passive tracers in sea ice.

  20. Aerodynamics and thermal physics of helicopter ice accretion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Yiqiang

    Ice accretion on aircraft introduces significant loss in airfoil performance. Reduced lift-to- drag ratio reduces the vehicle capability to maintain altitude and also limits its maneuverability. Current ice accretion performance degradation modeling approaches are calibrated only to a limited envelope of liquid water content, impact velocity, temperature, and water droplet size; consequently inaccurate aerodynamic performance degradations are estimated. The reduced ice accretion prediction capabilities in the glaze ice regime are primarily due to a lack of knowledge of surface roughness induced by ice accretion. A comprehensive understanding of the ice roughness effects on airfoil heat transfer, ice accretion shapes, and ultimately aerodynamics performance is critical for the design of ice protection systems. Surface roughness effects on both heat transfer and aerodynamic performance degradation on airfoils have been experimentally evaluated. Novel techniques, such as ice molding and casting methods and transient heat transfer measurement using non-intrusive thermal imaging methods, were developed at the Adverse Environment Rotor Test Stand (AERTS) facility at Penn State. A novel heat transfer scaling method specifically for turbulent flow regime was also conceived. A heat transfer scaling parameter, labeled as Coefficient of Stanton and Reynolds Number (CSR = Stx/Rex --0.2), has been validated against reference data found in the literature for rough flat plates with Reynolds number (Re) up to 1x107, for rough cylinders with Re ranging from 3x104 to 4x106, and for turbine blades with Re from 7.5x105 to 7x106. This is the first time that the effect of Reynolds number is shown to be successfully eliminated on heat transfer magnitudes measured on rough surfaces. Analytical models for ice roughness distribution, heat transfer prediction, and aerodynamics performance degradation due to ice accretion have also been developed. The ice roughness prediction model was

  1. Creating collaboration opportunities for marine research across the Arctic: The SEARCH-ACCESS partnership and an emerging sea ice prediction research network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eicken, H.; Bitz, C. M.; Gascard, J.; Kaminski, T.; Karcher, M. J.; Kauker, F.; Overland, J. E.; Stroeve, J. C.; Wiggins, H. V.

    2013-12-01

    Rapid Arctic environmental and socio-economic change presents major challenges and opportunities to Arctic residents, government agencies and the private sector. The Arctic Ocean and its ice cover, in particular, are in the midst of transformative change, ranging from declines in sea-ice thickness and summer ice extent to threats to coastal communities and increases in maritime traffic and offshore resource development. The US interagency Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) and the European Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS) project are addressing both scientific research needs and stakeholder information priorities to improve understanding and responses to Arctic change. Capacity building, coordination and integration of activities at the international level and across sectors and stakeholder groups are major challenges that have to be met. ACCESS and SEARCH build on long-standing collaborations with a focus on environmental change in the Arctic ocean-ice-atmosphere system and the most pressing research needs to inform marine policy, resource management and threats to Arctic coastal communities. To illustrate the approach, key results and major conclusions from this international coordination and collaboration effort, we focus on a nascent sea-ice prediction research network. This activity builds on the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook that was initiated by SEARCH and the European DAMOCLES project (a precursor to ACCESS) and has now grown into an international community of practice that synthesizes, evaluates and discusses sea-ice predictions on seasonal to interannual scales. Key goals of the effort which is now entering into a new phase include the comparative evaluation of different prediction approaches, including the combination of different techniques, the compilation of reference datasets and model output, guidance on the design and implementation of observing system efforts to improve predictions and information transfer into private

  2. Observing Ice in Clouds from Space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ackerman, S.; Star, D. O'C.; Skofronick-Jackson, G.; Evans, F.; Wang, J. R.; Norris, P.; daSilva, A.; Soden, B.

    2006-01-01

    There are many satellite observations of cloud top properties and the liquid and rain content of clouds, however, we do not yet quantitatively understand the processes that control the water budget of the upper troposphere where ice is the predominant phase, and how these processes are linked to precipitation processes and the radiative energy budget. The ice in clouds in the upper troposphere either melts into rain or is detrained, and persists, as cirrus clouds affecting the hydrological and energy cycle, respectively. Fully modeling the Earth's climate and improving weather and climate forecasts requires accurate satellite measurements of various cloud properties at the temporal and spatial scales of cloud processes. These properties include cloud horizontal and vertical structure, cloud water content and some measure of particle sizes and shapes. The uncertainty in knowledge of these ice characteristics is reflected in the large discrepancies in model simulations of the upper tropospheric water budget. Model simulations are sensitive to the partition of ice between precipitation and outflow processes, i.e., to the parameterization of ice clouds and ice processes. One barrier to achieving accurate global ice cloud properties is the lack of adequate observations at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths (183-874 GHz). Recent advances in instrumentation have allowed for the development and implementation of an airborne submillimeter-wave radiometer. The brightness temperatures at these frequencies are especially sensitive to cirrus ice particle sizes (because they are comparable to the wavelength). This allows for more accurate ice water path estimates when multiple channels are used to probe into the cloud layers. Further, submillimeter wavelengths offer simplicity in the retrieval algorithms because they do not probe into the liquid and near surface portions of clouds, thus requiring only one term of the radiative transfer equation (ice scattering) to relate

  3. Arctic sea ice signatures: L-band brightness temperature sensitivity comparison using two radiation transfer models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richter, Friedrich; Drusch, Matthias; Kaleschke, Lars; Maaß, Nina; Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan; Mecklenburg, Susanne

    2018-03-01

    Sea ice is a crucial component for short-, medium- and long-term numerical weather predictions. Most importantly, changes of sea ice coverage and areas covered by thin sea ice have a large impact on heat fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere. L-band brightness temperatures from ESA's Earth Explorer SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) have been proven to be a valuable tool to derive thin sea ice thickness. These retrieved estimates were already successfully assimilated in forecasting models to constrain the ice analysis, leading to more accurate initial conditions and subsequently more accurate forecasts. However, the brightness temperature measurements can potentially be assimilated directly in forecasting systems, reducing the data latency and providing a more consistent first guess. As a first step towards such a data assimilation system we studied the forward operator that translates geophysical parameters provided by a model into brightness temperatures. We use two different radiative transfer models to generate top of atmosphere brightness temperatures based on ORAP5 model output for the 2012/2013 winter season. The simulations are then compared against actual SMOS measurements. The results indicate that both models are able to capture the general variability of measured brightness temperatures over sea ice. The simulated brightness temperatures are dominated by sea ice coverage and thickness changes are most pronounced in the marginal ice zone where new sea ice is formed. There we observe the largest differences of more than 20 K over sea ice between simulated and observed brightness temperatures. We conclude that the assimilation of SMOS brightness temperatures yields high potential for forecasting models to correct for uncertainties in thin sea ice areas and suggest that information on sea ice fractional coverage from higher-frequency brightness temperatures should be used simultaneously.

  4. Winter snow conditions on Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard during the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merkouriadi, Ioanna; Gallet, Jean-Charles; Graham, Robert M.; Liston, Glen E.; Polashenski, Chris; Rösel, Anja; Gerland, Sebastian

    2017-10-01

    Snow is a crucial component of the Arctic sea ice system. Its thickness and thermal properties control heat conduction and radiative fluxes across the ocean, ice, and atmosphere interfaces. Hence, observations of the evolution of snow depth, density, thermal conductivity, and stratigraphy are crucial for the development of detailed snow numerical models predicting energy transfer through the snow pack. Snow depth is also a major uncertainty in predicting ice thickness using remote sensing algorithms. Here we examine the winter spatial and temporal evolution of snow physical properties on first-year (FYI) and second-year ice (SYI) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, during the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition (January to March 2015). During N-ICE2015, the snow pack consisted of faceted grains (47%), depth hoar (28%), and wind slab (13%), indicating very different snow stratigraphy compared to what was observed in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean during the SHEBA campaign (1997-1998). Average snow bulk density was 345 kg m-3 and it varied with ice type. Snow depth was 41 ± 19 cm in January and 56 ± 17 cm in February, which is significantly greater than earlier suggestions for this region. The snow water equivalent was 14.5 ± 5.3 cm over first-year ice and 19 ± 5.4 cm over second-year ice.

  5. Inferring Ice Thickness from a Glacier Dynamics Model and Multiple Surface Datasets.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Y.; Haran, M.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    The future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have a major impact on future climate. For instance, ice sheet melt may contribute significantly to global sea level rise. Understanding the current state of WAIS is therefore of great interest. WAIS is drained by fast-flowing glaciers which are major contributors to ice loss. Hence, understanding the stability and dynamics of glaciers is critical for predicting the future of the ice sheet. Glacier dynamics are driven by the interplay between the topography, temperature and basal conditions beneath the ice. A glacier dynamics model describes the interactions between these processes. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that integrates multiple ice sheet surface data sets with a glacier dynamics model. Our approach allows us to (1) infer important parameters describing the glacier dynamics, (2) learn about ice sheet thickness, and (3) account for errors in the observations and the model. Because we have relatively dense and accurate ice thickness data from the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, we use these data to validate the proposed approach. The long-term goal of this work is to have a general model that may be used to study multiple glaciers in the Antarctic.

  6. PredictSNP: Robust and Accurate Consensus Classifier for Prediction of Disease-Related Mutations

    PubMed Central

    Bendl, Jaroslav; Stourac, Jan; Salanda, Ondrej; Pavelka, Antonin; Wieben, Eric D.; Zendulka, Jaroslav; Brezovsky, Jan; Damborsky, Jiri

    2014-01-01

    Single nucleotide variants represent a prevalent form of genetic variation. Mutations in the coding regions are frequently associated with the development of various genetic diseases. Computational tools for the prediction of the effects of mutations on protein function are very important for analysis of single nucleotide variants and their prioritization for experimental characterization. Many computational tools are already widely employed for this purpose. Unfortunately, their comparison and further improvement is hindered by large overlaps between the training datasets and benchmark datasets, which lead to biased and overly optimistic reported performances. In this study, we have constructed three independent datasets by removing all duplicities, inconsistencies and mutations previously used in the training of evaluated tools. The benchmark dataset containing over 43,000 mutations was employed for the unbiased evaluation of eight established prediction tools: MAPP, nsSNPAnalyzer, PANTHER, PhD-SNP, PolyPhen-1, PolyPhen-2, SIFT and SNAP. The six best performing tools were combined into a consensus classifier PredictSNP, resulting into significantly improved prediction performance, and at the same time returned results for all mutations, confirming that consensus prediction represents an accurate and robust alternative to the predictions delivered by individual tools. A user-friendly web interface enables easy access to all eight prediction tools, the consensus classifier PredictSNP and annotations from the Protein Mutant Database and the UniProt database. The web server and the datasets are freely available to the academic community at http://loschmidt.chemi.muni.cz/predictsnp. PMID:24453961

  7. Heart rate during basketball game play and volleyball drills accurately predicts oxygen uptake and energy expenditure.

    PubMed

    Scribbans, T D; Berg, K; Narazaki, K; Janssen, I; Gurd, B J

    2015-09-01

    There is currently little information regarding the ability of metabolic prediction equations to accurately predict oxygen uptake and exercise intensity from heart rate (HR) during intermittent sport. The purpose of the present study was to develop and, cross-validate equations appropriate for accurately predicting oxygen cost (VO2) and energy expenditure from HR during intermittent sport participation. Eleven healthy adult males (19.9±1.1yrs) were recruited to establish the relationship between %VO2peak and %HRmax during low-intensity steady state endurance (END), moderate-intensity interval (MOD) and high intensity-interval exercise (HI), as performed on a cycle ergometer. Three equations (END, MOD, and HI) for predicting %VO2peak based on %HRmax were developed. HR and VO2 were directly measured during basketball games (6 male, 20.8±1.0 yrs; 6 female, 20.0±1.3yrs) and volleyball drills (12 female; 20.8±1.0yrs). Comparisons were made between measured and predicted VO2 and energy expenditure using the 3 equations developed and 2 previously published equations. The END and MOD equations accurately predicted VO2 and energy expenditure, while the HI equation underestimated, and the previously published equations systematically overestimated VO2 and energy expenditure. Intermittent sport VO2 and energy expenditure can be accurately predicted from heart rate data using either the END (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.008-17.17) or MOD (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.2-32) equations. These 2 simple equations provide an accessible and cost-effective method for accurate estimation of exercise intensity and energy expenditure during intermittent sport.

  8. Ice sintering timescales at the surface of Europa and implications for surface properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molaro, Jamie; Phillips, Cynthia B.; Meirion-Griffith, Gareth

    2017-10-01

    The planned exploration of Europa by NASA’s Europa Clipper Mission and the possibility of a future Europa lander have driven the need to characterize its surface strength, roughness, porosity, thermal conductivity, and regolith depth in order to accurately interpret remote sensing data and develop appropriate spacecraft landing systems. Many processes contribute to Europa’s landscape evolution, such as sputtering, mass wasting, thermal segregation, and impact gardening, driving the creation and distribution of icy regolith across the surface. While the efficacy of these processes are not well constrained, any amount of regolith emplaced at the surface will undergo subsequent processing due to sintering. Ice sintering is a form of frost metamorphism whereby contacting ice grains experience the diffusion of material into their contact region, forming a “neck” between them and densifying over time. Over long enough timescales, ice aggregates will sinter into solid material, which may contribute to the incorporation of non-ice material into Europa’s subsurface and help to drive subsurface chemistry. Sintering also interacts with other processes, adding to the complexity of icy surface evolution. For example, sputtering preferentially removes larger grains and may enhance sintering rates, and changes in ice porosity may affect the response of the surface to micrometeorite impacts.Quantifying the effects of ice sintering will allow us to predict the microstructural properties of Europa’s surface at spacecraft scales. To this end, we have modeled pressure-less (no overburden) sintering of spherical water-ice grains and validated the results with a laboratory experiment. We also modeled ice at the surface of Europa to obtain a first-order approximation of the sintering timescale and surface properties. Preliminary results indicate that ice grains will experience neck growth but not significant densification over Europa’s surface age, suggesting that loose

  9. Ice sintering timescales at the surface of Europa and implications for surface properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, C. B.; Molaro, J.; Meirion-Griffith, G.

    2017-12-01

    The planned exploration of Europa by NASA's Europa Clipper Mission and the possibility of a future Europa lander have driven the need to characterize its surface strength, roughness, porosity, thermal conductivity, and regolith depth in order to accurately interpret remote sensing data and develop appropriate spacecraft landing systems. Many processes contribute to Europa's landscape evolution, such as sputtering, mass wasting, thermal segregation, and impact gardening, driving the creation and distribution of icy regolith across the surface. While the efficacy of these processes are not well constrained, any amount of regolith emplaced at the surface will undergo subsequent processing due to sintering. Ice sintering is a form of frost metamorphism whereby contacting ice grains experience the diffusion of material into their contact region, forming a "neck" between them and densifying over time. Over long enough timescales, ice aggregates will sinter into solid material, which may contribute to the incorporation of non-ice material into Europa's subsurface and help to drive subsurface chemistry. Sintering also interacts with other processes, adding to the complexity of icy surface evolution. For example, sputtering preferentially removes larger grains and may enhance sintering rates, and changes in ice porosity may affect the response of the surface to micrometeorite impacts. Quantifying the effects of ice sintering will allow us to predict the microstructural properties of Europa's surface at spacecraft scales. To this end, we have modeled pressure-less (no overburden) sintering of spherical water-ice grains and validated the results with a laboratory experiment. We also modeled ice at the surface of Europa to obtain a first-order approximation of the sintering timescale and surface properties. Preliminary results indicate that ice grains will experience neck growth but not significant densification over Europa's surface age, suggesting that loose surface ice

  10. Collaborations for Arctic Sea Ice Information and Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield Guy, L.; Wiggins, H. V.; Turner-Bogren, E. J.; Rich, R. H.

    2017-12-01

    The dramatic and rapid changes in Arctic sea ice require collaboration across boundaries, including between disciplines, sectors, institutions, and between scientists and decision-makers. This poster will highlight several projects that provide knowledge to advance the development and use of sea ice knowledge. Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO: https://www.arcus.org/search-program/siwo) - SIWO is a resource for Alaskan Native subsistence hunters and other interested stakeholders. SIWO provides weekly reports, during April-June, of sea ice conditions relevant to walrus in the northern Bering and southern Chukchi seas. Collaboration among scientists, Alaskan Native sea-ice experts, and the Eskimo Walrus Commission is fundamental to this project's success. Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN: https://www.arcus.org/sipn) - A collaborative, multi-agency-funded project focused on seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions. The goals of SIPN include: coordinate and evaluate Arctic sea ice predictions; integrate, assess, and guide observations; synthesize predictions and observations; and disseminate predictions and engage key stakeholders. The Sea Ice Outlook—a key activity of SIPN—is an open process to share and synthesize predictions of the September minimum Arctic sea ice extent and other variables. Other SIPN activities include workshops, webinars, and communications across the network. Directory of Sea Ice Experts (https://www.arcus.org/researchers) - ARCUS has undertaken a pilot project to develop a web-based directory of sea ice experts across institutions, countries, and sectors. The goal of the project is to catalyze networking between individual investigators, institutions, funding agencies, and other stakeholders interested in Arctic sea ice. Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH: https://www.arcus.org/search-program) - SEARCH is a collaborative program that advances research, synthesizes research findings, and broadly communicates the results to support

  11. ICE CONTROL - Towards optimizing wind energy production during icing events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorninger, Manfred; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Beck, Alexander; Wittmann, Christoph; Weidle, Florian; Meier, Florian; Bourgeois, Saskia; Cattin, René; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Forecasts of wind power production loss caused by icing weather conditions are produced by a chain of physical models. The model chain consists of a numerical weather prediction model, an icing model and a production loss model. Each element of the model chain is affected by significant uncertainty, which can be quantified using targeted observations and a probabilistic forecasting approach. In this contribution, we present preliminary results from the recently launched project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative on measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. ICE CONTROL includes an experimental field phase, consisting of measurement campaigns in a wind park in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, in the winters 2016/17 and 2017/18. Instruments deployed during the campaigns consist of a conventional icing detector on the turbine hub and newly devised ice sensors (eologix Sensor System) on the turbine blades, as well as meteorological sensors for wind, temperature, humidity, visibility, and precipitation type and spectra. Liquid water content and spectral characteristics of super-cooled water droplets are measured using a Fog Monitor FM-120. Three cameras document the icing conditions on the instruments and on the blades. Different modelling approaches are used to quantify the components of the model-chain uncertainties. The uncertainty related to the initial conditions of the weather prediction is evaluated using the existing global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Furthermore, observation system experiments are conducted with the AROME model and its 3D-Var data assimilation to investigate the impact of additional observations (such as Mode-S aircraft data, SCADA data and MSG cloud mask initialization) on the numerical icing forecast. The uncertainty related to model formulation is estimated from multi-physics ensembles based on the Weather Research

  12. Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare

    Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

  13. Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

    DOE PAGES

    Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; ...

    2016-04-01

    Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

  14. Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Urban, Nathan M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Turner, Adrian K.; Jeffery, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. It is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.

  15. Routine Mapping of the Snow Depth Distribution on Sea Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farrell, S. L.; Newman, T.; Richter-Menge, J.; Dattler, M.; Paden, J. D.; Yan, S.; Li, J.; Leuschen, C.

    2016-12-01

    The annual growth and retreat of the polar sea ice cover is influenced by the seasonal accumulation, redistribution and melt of snow on sea ice. Due to its high albedo and low thermal conductivity, snow is also a controlling parameter in the mass and energy budgets of the polar climate system. Under a changing climate scenario it is critical to obtain reliable and routine measurements of snow depth, across basin scales, and long time periods, so as to understand regional, seasonal and inter-annual variability, and the subsequent impacts on the sea ice cover itself. Moreover the snow depth distribution remains a significant source of uncertainty in the derivation of sea ice thickness from remote sensing measurements, as well as in numerical model predictions of future climate state. Radar altimeter systems flown onboard NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) mission now provide annual measurements of snow across both the Arctic and Southern Ocean ice packs. We describe recent advances in the processing techniques used to interpret airborne radar waveforms and produce accurate and robust snow depth results. As a consequence of instrument effects and data quality issues associated with the initial release of the OIB airborne radar data, the entire data set was reprocessed to remove coherent noise and sidelobes in the radar echograms. These reprocessed data were released to the community in early 2016, and are available for improved derivation of snow depth. Here, using the reprocessed data, we present the results of seven years of radar measurements collected over Arctic sea ice at the end of winter, just prior to melt. Our analysis provides the snow depth distribution on both seasonal and multi-year sea ice. We present the inter-annual variability in snow depth for both the Central Arctic and the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas. We validate our results via comparison with temporally and spatially coincident in situ measurements gathered during many of the OIB surveys. The results

  16. Mechanisms resulting in accreted ice roughness

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bilanin, Alan J.; Chua, Kiat

    1992-01-01

    Icing tests conducted on rotating cylinders in the BF Goodrich's Icing Research Facility indicate that a regular, deterministic, icing roughness pattern is typical. The roughness pattern is similar to kernels of corn on a cob for cylinders of diameter typical of a cob. An analysis is undertaken to determine the mechanisms which result in this roughness to ascertain surface scale and amplitude of roughness. Since roughness and the resulting augmentation of the convected heat transfer coefficient has been determined to most strongly control the accreted ice in ice prediction codes, the ability to predict a priori, location, amplitude and surface scale of roughness would greatly augment the capabilities of current ice accretion models.

  17. Accurate prediction of protein–protein interactions from sequence alignments using a Bayesian method

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Lukas; van Nimwegen, Erik

    2008-01-01

    Accurate and large-scale prediction of protein–protein interactions directly from amino-acid sequences is one of the great challenges in computational biology. Here we present a new Bayesian network method that predicts interaction partners using only multiple alignments of amino-acid sequences of interacting protein domains, without tunable parameters, and without the need for any training examples. We first apply the method to bacterial two-component systems and comprehensively reconstruct two-component signaling networks across all sequenced bacteria. Comparisons of our predictions with known interactions show that our method infers interaction partners genome-wide with high accuracy. To demonstrate the general applicability of our method we show that it also accurately predicts interaction partners in a recent dataset of polyketide synthases. Analysis of the predicted genome-wide two-component signaling networks shows that cognates (interacting kinase/regulator pairs, which lie adjacent on the genome) and orphans (which lie isolated) form two relatively independent components of the signaling network in each genome. In addition, while most genes are predicted to have only a small number of interaction partners, we find that 10% of orphans form a separate class of ‘hub' nodes that distribute and integrate signals to and from up to tens of different interaction partners. PMID:18277381

  18. Experimental Studies in Ice Nucleation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Timothy Peter

    Ice nuclei play a critical role in the formation of precipitation in mixed phase clouds. Modification of IN concentrations can lead to changes in cloud lifetimes and precipitation size. Presented in this study are experimental investigations into ice nuclei in an ongoing effort to reduce the uncertainties that ice nuclei have on cloud processes and climate. This research presents a new version of the cold stage drop freezing assay to investigate the time-dependence of heterogeneous nucleation. The temperature range for the instrument spans from the melting point of water to the homogeneous freezing limit of ˜-38 deg C. Temperature stability for the instrument allowed for experimental operation for up to four days while interrogating the same sample. Up to a one hundred fold increase in the number of analyzed drops was accomplished through an in-house written automated drop freezing detection software package. Combined instrument design improvements allow for the analysis of IN concentrations down to ˜10-8 ice nuclei per picoliter of sample water. A new variant of the multiple-component stochastic model for heterogeneous ice nucleation was used to investigate the time dependence of heterogeneous freezing processes. This was accomplished by analyzing how the changes in the cooling rate can impact the observed nucleation rate. The model employed four material-dependent parameters to accurately capture the observed freezing of water drops containing Arizona Test Dust. The parameters were then used to accurately predict the freezing behavior of the drops in time dependent experiments. The time dependence freezing of a wide range of materials was then investigated. These materials included the minerals montmorillonite and kaolinite, the biological proxy ice nuclei contained within the product Icemax, and flame soot generated from the incomplete combustion of ethylene gas. The time dependence for ice nuclei collected from rainwater samples was also investigated. The

  19. A Newly Updated Database of Elevation-changes of the Greenand Ice Sheet to Study Surface Processes and Ice Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schenk, A. F.; Csatho, B. M.; van den Broeke, M.; Kuipers Munneke, P.

    2015-12-01

    This paper reports about important upgrades of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface elevation and elevation-change database obtained with our Surface Elevation And Change detection (SERAC) software suite. We have developed SERAC to derive information from laser altimetry data, particularly time series of elevation changes and their partitioning into changes caused by ice dynamics. This allows direct investigation of ice dynamic processes that is much needed for improving the predictive power of ice sheet models. SERAC is different from most other change detection methods. It is based on detecting changes of surface patches, about 1 km by 1 km in size, rather than deriving elevation changes from individual laser points. The current database consists of ~100,000 time series with satellite laser altimetry data from ICESat, airborne laser observations obtained by NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) and the Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS). The upgrade is significant, because not only new observations from 2013 and 2014 have been added but also a number of improvements lead to a more comprehensive and consistent record of elevation-changes. First, we used the model that gives in addition to ice sheet also information about ice caps and glaciers (Rastner et al., 2012) for deciding if a laser point is on the ice sheet or ice cap. Then we added small gaps that exist in the ICESat GLA12 data set because the ice sheet mask is not wide enough. The new database is now more complete and will facilitate more accurate comparisons of mass balance studies obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment system (GRACE). For determining the part of a time series caused by ice dynamics we used the new firn compaction model and Surface Mass Balance (SMB) estimates from RACMO2.3. The new database spans the time period from 1993 to 2014. Adding new observations amounts to a spatial densification of the old record and at the same time extends the time domain by two

  20. A Novel Method for Accurate Operon Predictions in All SequencedProkaryotes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Price, Morgan N.; Huang, Katherine H.; Alm, Eric J.

    2004-12-01

    We combine comparative genomic measures and the distance separating adjacent genes to predict operons in 124 completely sequenced prokaryotic genomes. Our method automatically tailors itself to each genome using sequence information alone, and thus can be applied to any prokaryote. For Escherichia coli K12 and Bacillus subtilis, our method is 85 and 83% accurate, respectively, which is similar to the accuracy of methods that use the same features but are trained on experimentally characterized transcripts. In Halobacterium NRC-1 and in Helicobacterpylori, our method correctly infers that genes in operons are separated by shorter distances than they are in E.coli, andmore » its predictions using distance alone are more accurate than distance-only predictions trained on a database of E.coli transcripts. We use microarray data from sixphylogenetically diverse prokaryotes to show that combining intergenic distance with comparative genomic measures further improves accuracy and that our method is broadly effective. Finally, we survey operon structure across 124 genomes, and find several surprises: H.pylori has many operons, contrary to previous reports; Bacillus anthracis has an unusual number of pseudogenes within conserved operons; and Synechocystis PCC6803 has many operons even though it has unusually wide spacings between conserved adjacent genes.« less

  1. Evidence for ephemeral middle Eocene to early Oligocene Greenland glacial ice and pan-Arctic sea ice.

    PubMed

    Tripati, Aradhna; Darby, Dennis

    2018-03-12

    Earth's modern climate is defined by the presence of ice at both poles, but that ice is now disappearing. Therefore understanding the origin and causes of polar ice stability is more critical than ever. Here we provide novel geochemical data that constrain past dynamics of glacial ice on Greenland and Arctic sea ice. Based on accurate source determinations of individual ice-rafted Fe-oxide grains, we find evidence for episodic glaciation of distinct source regions on Greenland as far-ranging as ~68°N and ~80°N synchronous with ice-rafting from circum-Arctic sources, beginning in the middle Eocene. Glacial intervals broadly coincide with reduced CO 2 , with a potential threshold for glacial ice stability near ~500 p.p.m.v. The middle Eocene represents the Cenozoic onset of a dynamic cryosphere, with ice in both hemispheres during transient glacials and substantial regional climate heterogeneity. A more stable cryosphere developed at the Eocene-Oligocene transition, and is now threatened by anthropogenic emissions.

  2. Experimentally Determined Binding Energies of Astrophysically Relevant Hydrocarbons in Pure and H2O-Layered Ices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behmard, Aida; Graninger, Dawn; Fayolle, Edith; Oberg, Karin I.

    2017-01-01

    Small hydrocarbons represent an important organic reservoir in a variety of interstellar environments. Constraints on desorption temperatures and binding energies of hydrocarbons are thus necessary for accurate predictions of where and in which phase these molecules exist. Through a series of temperature programmed desorption experiments, we determined binding energies of 1, 2, and 3-carbon interstellar hydrocarbons (CH4, C2H2, C2H4, C2H6, C3H4, C3H6, and C3H8) in pure ices and in relation to water ice, the dominant ice constituent during star and planet formation. These empirically determined values can be used to inform observations and models of the molecular spatial distribution in protoplanetary disks, thus providing insight into planetesimal composition. In addition, knowledge of hydrocarbon binding energies will refine simulations of grain surface chemistry, allowing for better predictions of the chemical conditions that lead to the production of complex organic molecules vital for life.

  3. Wave effects on ocean-ice interaction in the marginal ice zone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Antony K.; Hakkinen, Sirpa; Peng, Chih Y.

    1993-01-01

    The effects of wave train on ice-ocean interaction in the marginal ice zone are studied through numerical modeling. A coupled two-dimensional ice-ocean model has been developed to include wave effects and wind stress for the predictions of ice edge dynamics. The sea ice model is coupled to the reduced-gravity ocean model through interfacial stresses. The main dynamic balance in the ice momentum is between water-ice stress, wind stress, and wave radiation stresses. By considering the exchange of momentum between waves and ice pack through radiation stress for decaying waves, a parametric study of the effects of wave stress and wind stress on ice edge dynamics has been performed. The numerical results show significant effects from wave action. The ice edge is sharper, and ice edge meanders form in the marginal ice zone owing to forcing by wave action and refraction of swell system after a couple of days. Upwelling at the ice edge and eddy formation can be enhanced by the nonlinear effects of wave action; wave action sharpens the ice edge and can produce ice meandering, which enhances local Ekman pumping and pycnocline anomalies. The resulting ice concentration, pycnocline changes, and flow velocity field are shown to be consistent with previous observations.

  4. Accurate prediction of energy expenditure using a shoe-based activity monitor.

    PubMed

    Sazonova, Nadezhda; Browning, Raymond C; Sazonov, Edward

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a method for predicting energy expenditure (EE) using a footwear-based system with integrated accelerometer and pressure sensors. We developed a footwear-based device with an embedded accelerometer and insole pressure sensors for the prediction of EE. The data from the device can be used to perform accurate recognition of major postures and activities and to estimate EE using the acceleration, pressure, and posture/activity classification information in a branched algorithm without the need for individual calibration. We measured EE via indirect calorimetry as 16 adults (body mass index=19-39 kg·m) performed various low- to moderate-intensity activities and compared measured versus predicted EE using several models based on the acceleration and pressure signals. Inclusion of pressure data resulted in better accuracy of EE prediction during static postures such as sitting and standing. The activity-based branched model that included predictors from accelerometer and pressure sensors (BACC-PS) achieved the lowest error (e.g., root mean squared error (RMSE)=0.69 METs) compared with the accelerometer-only-based branched model BACC (RMSE=0.77 METs) and nonbranched model (RMSE=0.94-0.99 METs). Comparison of EE prediction models using data from both legs versus models using data from a single leg indicates that only one shoe needs to be equipped with sensors. These results suggest that foot acceleration combined with insole pressure measurement, when used in an activity-specific branched model, can accurately estimate the EE associated with common daily postures and activities. The accuracy and unobtrusiveness of a footwear-based device may make it an effective physical activity monitoring tool.

  5. Interactions of ice sheet evolution, sea level and GIA in a region of complex Earth structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomez, N. A.; Chan, N. H.; Latychev, K.; Pollard, D.; Powell, E. M.

    2017-12-01

    Constraining glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is challenging in Antarctica, where the solid Earth deformation, sea level changes and ice dynamics are strongly linked on all timescales. Furthermore, Earth structure beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet is characterized by significant lateral variability. A stable, thick craton exists in the east, while the west is underlain by a large continental rift system, with a relatively thin lithosphere and hot, low viscosity asthenosphere, as indicated by high resolution seismic tomography. This implies that in parts of the West Antarctic, the Earth's mantle may respond to surface loading on shorter than average (centennial, or even decadal) timescales. Accounting for lateral variations in viscoelastic Earth structure alters the timing and geometry of load-induced Earth deformation, which in turn impacts the timing and extent of the ice-sheet retreat via a sea-level feedback, as well as predictions of relative sea-level change and GIA. We explore the impact of laterally varying Earth structure on ice-sheet evolution, sea level change and Earth deformation in the Antarctic region since the Last Glacial Maximum using a newly developed coupled ice sheet - sea level model that incorporates 3-D variations in lithospheric thickness and mantle viscosity derived from recent seismic tomographic datasets. Our results focus on identifying the regions and time periods in which the incorporation of 3-D Earth structure is critical for accurate predictions of ice sheet evolution and interpretation of geological and geodetic observations. We also investigate the sensitivity to the regional Earth structure of the relative contributions to modern GIA predictions of Last Deglacial and more recent Holocene ice cover changes.

  6. An Innovative Network to Improve Sea Ice Prediction in a Changing Arctic

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-30

    fall (July – Oct), the CFSv2 forecasts are too extensive (positive bias), while in the rest of the year they are not extensive enough (negative bias...the year (January to September), but a negative bias in the early fall (October to December), during the ice growing season. This illustrate the...Overland, and S. Yang, Polar-Low latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction, 2015: Bull. Amer. Meteor . Soc. [in press]. HONORS

  7. Upper-Tropospheric Cloud Ice from IceCube

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    Cloud ice plays important roles in Earth's energy budget and cloud-precipitation processes. Knowledge of global cloud ice and its properties is critical for understanding and quantifying its roles in Earth's atmospheric system. It remains a great challenge to measure these variables accurately from space. Submillimeter (submm) wave remote sensing has capability of penetrating clouds and measuring ice mass and microphysical properties. In particular, the 883-GHz frequency is a highest spectral window in microwave frequencies that can be used to fill a sensitivity gap between thermal infrared (IR) and mm-wave sensors in current spaceborne cloud ice observations. IceCube is a cubesat spaceflight demonstration of 883-GHz radiometer technology. Its primary objective is to raise the technology readiness level (TRL) of 883-GHz cloud radiometer for future Earth science missions. By flying a commercial receiver on a 3U cubesat, IceCube is able to achieve fast-track maturation of space technology, by completing its development, integration and testing in 2.5 years. IceCube was successfully delivered to ISS in April 2017 and jettisoned from the International Space Station (ISS) in May 2017. The IceCube cloud-ice radiometer (ICIR) has been acquiring data since the jettison on a daytime-only operation. IceCube adopted a simple design without payload mechanism. It makes maximum utilization of solar power by spinning the spacecraft continuously about the Sun vector at a rate of 1.2° per second. As a result, the ICIR is operated under the limited resources (8.6 W without heater) and largely-varying (18°C-28°C) thermal environments. The spinning cubesat also allows ICIR to have periodical views between the Earth (atmosphere and clouds) and cold space (calibration), from which the first 883-GHz cloud map is obtained. The 883-GHz cloud radiance, sensitive to ice particle scattering, is proportional to cloud ice amount above 10 km. The ICIR cloud map acquired during June 20-July 2

  8. Are EMS call volume predictions based on demand pattern analysis accurate?

    PubMed

    Brown, Lawrence H; Lerner, E Brooke; Larmon, Baxter; LeGassick, Todd; Taigman, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Most EMS systems determine the number of crews they will deploy in their communities and when those crews will be scheduled based on anticipated call volumes. Many systems use historical data to calculate their anticipated call volumes, a method of prediction known as demand pattern analysis. To evaluate the accuracy of call volume predictions calculated using demand pattern analysis. Seven EMS systems provided 73 consecutive weeks of hourly call volume data. The first 20 weeks of data were used to calculate three common demand pattern analysis constructs for call volume prediction: average peak demand (AP), smoothed average peak demand (SAP), and 90th percentile rank (90%R). The 21st week served as a buffer. Actual call volumes in the last 52 weeks were then compared to the predicted call volumes by using descriptive statistics. There were 61,152 hourly observations in the test period. All three constructs accurately predicted peaks and troughs in call volume but not exact call volume. Predictions were accurate (+/-1 call) 13% of the time using AP, 10% using SAP, and 19% using 90%R. Call volumes were overestimated 83% of the time using AP, 86% using SAP, and 74% using 90%R. When call volumes were overestimated, predictions exceeded actual call volume by a median (Interquartile range) of 4 (2-6) calls for AP, 4 (2-6) for SAP, and 3 (2-5) for 90%R. Call volumes were underestimated 4% of time using AP, 4% using SAP, and 7% using 90%R predictions. When call volumes were underestimated, call volumes exceeded predictions by a median (Interquartile range; maximum under estimation) of 1 (1-2; 18) call for AP, 1 (1-2; 18) for SAP, and 2 (1-3; 20) for 90%R. Results did not vary between systems. Generally, demand pattern analysis estimated or overestimated call volume, making it a reasonable predictor for ambulance staffing patterns. However, it did underestimate call volume between 4% and 7% of the time. Communities need to determine if these rates of over

  9. Autonomous Ice Mass Balance Buoys for Seasonal Sea Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitlock, J. D.; Planck, C.; Perovich, D. K.; Parno, J. T.; Elder, B. C.; Richter-Menge, J.; Polashenski, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    The ice mass-balance represents the integration of all surface and ocean heat fluxes and attributing the impact of these forcing fluxes on the ice cover can be accomplished by increasing temporal and spatial measurements. Mass balance information can be used to understand the ongoing changes in the Arctic sea ice cover and to improve predictions of future ice conditions. Thinner seasonal ice in the Arctic necessitates the deployment of Autonomous Ice Mass Balance buoys (IMB's) capable of long-term, in situ data collection in both ice and open ocean. Seasonal IMB's (SIMB's) are free floating IMB's that allow data collection in thick ice, thin ice, during times of transition, and even open water. The newest generation of SIMB aims to increase the number of reliable IMB's in the Arctic by leveraging inexpensive commercial-grade instrumentation when combined with specially developed monitoring hardware. Monitoring tasks are handled by a custom, expandable data logger that provides low-cost flexibility for integrating a large range of instrumentation. The SIMB features ultrasonic sensors for direct measurement of both snow depth and ice thickness and a digital temperature chain (DTC) for temperature measurements every 2cm through both snow and ice. Air temperature and pressure, along with GPS data complete the Arctic picture. Additionally, the new SIMB is more compact to maximize deployment opportunities from multiple types of platforms.

  10. The little ice age as recorded in the stratigraphy of the tropical quelccaya ice cap.

    PubMed

    Thompson, L G; Mosley-Thompson, E; Dansgaard, W; Grootes, P M

    1986-10-17

    The analyses of two ice cores from a southern tropical ice cap provide a record of climatic conditions over 1000 years for a region where other proxy records are nearly absent. Annual variations in visible dust layers, oxygen isotopes, microparticle concentrations, conductivity, and identification of the historical (A.D. 1600) Huaynaputina ash permit accurate dating and time-scale verification. The fact that the Little Ice Age (about A.D. 1500 to 1900) stands out as a significant climatic event in the oxygen isotope and electrical conductivity records confirms the worldwide character of this event.

  11. Rapid and accurate prediction and scoring of water molecules in protein binding sites.

    PubMed

    Ross, Gregory A; Morris, Garrett M; Biggin, Philip C

    2012-01-01

    Water plays a critical role in ligand-protein interactions. However, it is still challenging to predict accurately not only where water molecules prefer to bind, but also which of those water molecules might be displaceable. The latter is often seen as a route to optimizing affinity of potential drug candidates. Using a protocol we call WaterDock, we show that the freely available AutoDock Vina tool can be used to predict accurately the binding sites of water molecules. WaterDock was validated using data from X-ray crystallography, neutron diffraction and molecular dynamics simulations and correctly predicted 97% of the water molecules in the test set. In addition, we combined data-mining, heuristic and machine learning techniques to develop probabilistic water molecule classifiers. When applied to WaterDock predictions in the Astex Diverse Set of protein ligand complexes, we could identify whether a water molecule was conserved or displaced to an accuracy of 75%. A second model predicted whether water molecules were displaced by polar groups or by non-polar groups to an accuracy of 80%. These results should prove useful for anyone wishing to undertake rational design of new compounds where the displacement of water molecules is being considered as a route to improved affinity.

  12. NASA Iced Aerodynamics and Controls Current Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Addy, Gene

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the state of current research in the area of aerodynamics and aircraft control with ice conditions by the Aviation Safety Program, part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Controls Project (IRAC). Included in the presentation is a overview of the modeling efforts. The objective of the modeling is to develop experimental and computational methods to model and predict aircraft response during adverse flight conditions, including icing. The Aircraft icing modeling efforts includes the Ice-Contaminated Aerodynamics Modeling, which examines the effects of ice contamination on aircraft aerodynamics, and CFD modeling of ice-contaminated aircraft aerodynamics, and Advanced Ice Accretion Process Modeling which examines the physics of ice accretion, and works on computational modeling of ice accretions. The IRAC testbed, a Generic Transport Model (GTM) and its use in the investigation of the effects of icing on its aerodynamics is also reviewed. This has led to a more thorough understanding and models, both theoretical and empirical of icing physics and ice accretion for airframes, advanced 3D ice accretion prediction codes, CFD methods for iced aerodynamics and better understanding of aircraft iced aerodynamics and its effects on control surface effectiveness.

  13. Laboratory Investigation of Direct Measurement of Ice Water Content, Ice Surface Area, and Effective Radius of Ice Crystals Using a Laser-Diffraction Instrument

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gerber, H.; DeMott, P. J.; Rogers, D. C.

    1995-01-01

    The aircraft microphysics probe, PVM-100A, was tested in the Colorado State University dynamic cloud chamber to establish its ability to measure ice water content (IWC), PSA, and Re in ice clouds. Its response was compared to other means of measuring those ice-cloud parameters that included using FSSP-100 and 230-X 1-D optical probes for ice-crystal concentrations, a film-loop microscope for ice-crystal habits and dimensions, and an in-situ microscope for determining ice-crystal orientation. Intercomparisons were made in ice clouds containing ice crystals ranging in size from about 10 microns to 150 microns diameter, and ice crystals with plate, columnar, dendritic, and spherical shapes. It was not possible to determine conclusively that the PVM accurately measures IWC, PSA, and Re of ice crystals, because heat from the PVM evaporated in part the crystals in its vicinity in the chamber thus affecting its measurements. Similarities in the operating principle of the FSSP and PVM, and a comparison between Re measured by both instruments, suggest, however, that the PVM can make those measurements. The resolution limit of the PVM for IWC measurements was found to be on the order of 0.001 g/cubic m. Algorithms for correcting IWC measured by FSSP and PVM were developed.

  14. Ice Nucleation Efficiency of Hydroxylated Organic Surfaces Is Controlled by Their Structural Fluctuations and Mismatch to Ice.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Yuqing; Odendahl, Nathan; Hudait, Arpa; Mason, Ryan; Bertram, Allan K; Paesani, Francesco; DeMott, Paul J; Molinero, Valeria

    2017-03-01

    Heterogeneous nucleation of ice induced by organic materials is of fundamental importance for climate, biology, and industry. Among organic ice-nucleating surfaces, monolayers of long chain alcohols are particularly effective, while monolayers of fatty acids are significantly less so. As these monolayers expose to water hydroxyl groups with an order that resembles the one in the basal plane of ice, it was proposed that lattice matching between ice and the surface controls their ice-nucleating efficiency. Organic monolayers are soft materials and display significant fluctuations. It has been conjectured that these fluctuations assist in the nucleation of ice. Here we use molecular dynamic simulations and laboratory experiments to investigate the relationship between the structure and fluctuations of hydroxylated organic surfaces and the temperature at which they nucleate ice. We find that these surfaces order interfacial water to form domains with ice-like order that are the birthplace of ice. Both mismatch and fluctuations decrease the size of the preordered domains and monotonously decrease the ice freezing temperature. The simulations indicate that fluctuations depress the freezing efficiency of monolayers of alcohols or acids to half the value predicted from lattice mismatch alone. The model captures the experimental trend in freezing efficiencies as a function of chain length and predicts that alcohols have higher freezing efficiency than acids of the same chain length. These trends are mostly controlled by the modulation of the structural mismatch to ice. We use classical nucleation theory to show that the freezing efficiencies of the monolayers are directly related to their free energy of binding to ice. This study provides a general framework to relate the equilibrium thermodynamics of ice binding to a surface and the nonequilibrium ice freezing temperature and suggests that these could be predicted from the structure of interfacial water.

  15. Two new ways of mapping sea ice thickness using ocean waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wadhams, P.

    2010-12-01

    TWO NEW METHODS OF MAPPING SEA ICE THICKNESS USING OCEAN WAVES. P. Wadhams (1,2), Martin Doble (1,2) and F. Parmiggiani (3) (1) Dept. of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK. (2) Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 06234 Villefranche-sur-Mer, France (2) ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Two new methods of mapping ice thickness have been recently developed and tested, both making use of the dispersion relation of ocean waves in ice of radically different types. In frazil-pancake ice, a young ice type in which cakes less than 5 m across float in a suspension of individual ice crystals, the propagation of waves has been successfully modelled by treating the ice layer as a highly viscous fluid. The model predicts a shortening of wavelengths within the ice. Two-dimensional Fourier analysis of successive SAR subscenes to track the directional spectrum of a wave field as it enters an ice edge shows that waves do indeed shorten within the ice, and the change has been successfully used to predict the thickness of the frazil-pancake layer. Concurrent shipborne sampling in the Antarctic has shown that the method is accurate, and we now propose its use throughout the important frazil-pancake regimes in the world ocean (Antarctic circumpolar ice edge zone, Greenland Sea, Bering Sea and others). A radically different type of dispersion occurs when ocean waves enter the continuous icefields of the central Arctic, when they couple with the elastic ice cover to propagate as a flexural-gravity wave. A two-axis tiltmeter array has been used to measure the resulting change in the dispersion relation for long ocean swell (15-30 s) originating from storms in the Greenland Sea. The dispersion relation is slightly different from swell in the open ocean, so if two such arrays are placed a substantial distance (100s of km) apart and used to observe the changing wave period of arrivals from a given

  16. Mechanical sea-ice strength parameterized as a function of ice temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hata, Yukie; Tremblay, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Mechanical sea-ice strength is key for a better simulation of the timing of landlock ice onset and break-up in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). We estimate the mechanical strength of sea ice in the CAA by analyzing the position record measured by the several buoys deployed in the CAA between 2008 and 2013, and wind data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre's Global Deterministic Prediction System (CMC_GDPS) REforecasts (CGRF). First, we calculate the total force acting on the ice using the wind data. Next, we estimate upper (lower) bounds on the sea-ice strength by identifying cases when the sea ice deforms (does not deform) under the action of a given total force. Results from this analysis show that the ice strength of landlock sea ice in the CAA is approximately 40 kN/m on the landfast ice onset (in ice growth season). Additionally, it becomes approximately 10 kN/m on the landfast ice break-up (in melting season). The ice strength decreases with ice temperature increase, which is in accord with results from Johnston [2006]. We also include this new parametrization of sea-ice strength as a function of ice temperature in a coupled slab ocean sea ice model. The results from the model with and without the new parametrization are compared with the buoy data from the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP).

  17. River-ice break-up/freeze-up: a review of climatic drivers, historical trends and future predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prowse, T. D.; Bonsal, B. R.; Duguay, C. R.; Lacroix, M. P.

    2007-10-01

    River ice plays a fundamental role in biological, chemical and physical processes that control freshwater regimes of the cold regions. Moreover, it can have enormous economic implications for river-based developments. All such activities and processes can be modified significantly by any changes to river-ice thickness, composition or event timing and severity. This paper briefly reviews some of the major hydraulic, mechanical and thermodynamic processes controlling river-ice events and how these are influenced by variations in climate. A regional and temporal synthesis is also made of the observed historical trends in river-ice break-up/freeze-up occurrence from the Eurasian and North American cold regions. This involves assessment of several hydroclimatic variables that have influenced past trends and variability in river-ice break-up/freeze-up dates including air-temperature indicators (e.g. seasonal temperature, 0°C isotherm dates and various degree-days) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns or teleconnections. Implications of future climate change on the timing and severity of river-ice events are presented and discussed in relation to the historical trends. Attention is drawn to the increasing trends towards the occurrence of mid-winter break-up events that can produce especially severe flood conditions but prove to be the most difficult type of event to model and predict.

  18. Significance of Thermal Fluvial Incision and Bedrock Transfer due to Ice Advection on Greenland Ice Sheet Topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crozier, J. A.; Karlstrom, L.; Yang, K.

    2017-12-01

    Ice sheet surface topography reflects a complicated combination of processes that act directly upon the surface and that are products of ice advection. Using recently-available high resolution ice velocity, imagery, ice surface elevation, and bedrock elevation data sets, we seek to determine the domain of significance of two important processes - thermal fluvial incision and transfer of bedrock topography through the ice sheet - on controlling surface topography in the ablation zone. Evaluating such controls is important for understanding how melting of the GIS surface during the melt season may be directly imprinted in topography through supraglacial drainage networks, and indirectly imprinted through its contribution to basal sliding that affects bedrock transfer. We use methods developed by (Karlstrom and Yang, 2016) to identify supraglacial stream networks on the GIS, and use high resolution surface digital elevation models as well as gridded ice velocity and melt rate models to quantify surface processes. We implement a numerically efficient Fourier domain bedrock transfer function (Gudmundsson, 2003) to predict surface topography due to ice advection over bedrock topography obtained from radar. Despite a number of simplifying assumptions, the bedrock transfer function predicts the observed ice sheet surface in most regions of the GIS with ˜90% accuracy, regardless of the presence or absence of supraglacial drainage networks. This supports the hypothesis that bedrock is the most significant driver of ice surface topography on wavelengths similar to ice thickness. Ice surface topographic asymmetry on the GIS is common, with slopes in the direction of ice flow steeper than those faced opposite to ice flow, consistent with bedrock transfer theory. At smaller wavelengths, topography consistent with fluvial erosion by surface hydrologic features is evident. We quantify the effect of ice advection versus fluvial thermal erosion on supraglacial longitudinal stream

  19. Software Design Description for the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Version 3.0

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-11-05

    Naval Research Laboratory Stennis Space Center, MS 39529-5004 NRL/MR/7320--08-9150 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Software ...collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services , Directorate for...THIS PAGE 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT Software Design Description for the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Version 3.0 Pamela G

  20. Frazil-ice growth rate and dynamics in mixed layers and sub-ice-shelf plumes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rees Jones, David W.; Wells, Andrew J.

    2018-01-01

    The growth of frazil or granular ice is an important mode of ice formation in the cryosphere. Recent advances have improved our understanding of the microphysical processes that control the rate of ice-crystal growth when water is cooled beneath its freezing temperature. These advances suggest that crystals grow much faster than previously thought. In this paper, we consider models of a population of ice crystals with different sizes to provide insight into the treatment of frazil ice in large-scale models. We consider the role of crystal growth alongside the other physical processes that determine the dynamics of frazil ice. We apply our model to a simple mixed layer (such as at the surface of the ocean) and to a buoyant plume under a floating ice shelf. We provide numerical calculations and scaling arguments to predict the occurrence of frazil-ice explosions, which we show are controlled by crystal growth, nucleation, and gravitational removal. Faster crystal growth, higher secondary nucleation, and slower gravitational removal make frazil-ice explosions more likely. We identify steady-state crystal size distributions, which are largely insensitive to crystal growth rate but are affected by the relative importance of secondary nucleation to gravitational removal. Finally, we show that the fate of plumes underneath ice shelves is dramatically affected by frazil-ice dynamics. Differences in the parameterization of crystal growth and nucleation give rise to radically different predictions of basal accretion and plume dynamics, and can even impact whether a plume reaches the end of the ice shelf or intrudes at depth.

  1. Arctic landfast sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konig, Christof S.

    Landfast ice is sea ice which forms and remains fixed along a coast, where it is attached either to the shore, or held between shoals or grounded icebergs. Landfast ice fundamentally modifies the momentum exchange between atmosphere and ocean, as compared to pack ice. It thus affects the heat and freshwater exchange between air and ocean and impacts on the location of ocean upwelling and downwelling zones. Further, the landfast ice edge is essential for numerous Arctic mammals and Inupiat who depend on them for their subsistence. The current generation of sea ice models is not capable of reproducing certain aspects of landfast ice formation, maintenance, and disintegration even when the spatial resolution would be sufficient to resolve such features. In my work I develop a new ice model that permits the existence of landfast sea ice even in the presence of offshore winds, as is observed in mature. Based on viscous-plastic as well as elastic-viscous-plastic ice dynamics I add tensile strength to the ice rheology and re-derive the equations as well as numerical methods to solve them. Through numerical experiments on simplified domains, the effects of those changes are demonstrated. It is found that the modifications enable landfast ice modeling, as desired. The elastic-viscous-plastic rheology leads to initial velocity fluctuations within the landfast ice that weaken the ice sheet and break it up much faster than theoretically predicted. Solving the viscous-plastic rheology using an implicit numerical method avoids those waves and comes much closer to theoretical predictions. Improvements in landfast ice modeling can only verified in comparison to observed data. I have extracted landfast sea ice data of several decades from several sources to create a landfast sea ice climatology that can be used for that purpose. Statistical analysis of the data shows several factors that significantly influence landfast ice distribution: distance from the coastline, ocean depth, as

  2. Characterization of Ice Roughness From Simulated Icing Encounters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, David N.; Shin, Jaiwon

    1997-01-01

    Detailed measurements of the size of roughness elements on ice accreted on models in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) were made in a previous study. Only limited data from that study have been published, but included were the roughness element height, diameter and spacing. In the present study, the height and spacing data were found to correlate with the element diameter, and the diameter was found to be a function primarily of the non-dimensional parameters freezing fraction and accumulation parameter. The width of the smooth zone which forms at the leading edge of the model was found to decrease with increasing accumulation parameter. Although preliminary, the success of these correlations suggests that it may be possible to develop simple relationships between ice roughness and icing conditions for use in ice-accretion-prediction codes. These codes now require an ice-roughness estimate to determine convective heat transfer. Studies using a 7.6-cm-diameter cylinder and a 53.3-cm-chord NACA 0012 airfoil were also performed in which a 1/2-min icing spray at an initial set of conditions was followed by a 9-1/2-min spray at a second set of conditions. The resulting ice shape was compared with that from a full 10-min spray at the second set of conditions. The initial ice accumulation appeared to have no effect on the final ice shape. From this result, it would appear the accreting ice is affected very little by the initial roughness or shape features.

  3. Laser Altimetry Sampling Strategies over Sea Ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farrell, Sinead L.; Markus, Thorsten; Kwok, Ron; Connor, Laurence

    2011-01-01

    With the conclusion of the science phase of the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission in late 2009, and the planned launch of ICESat-2 in late 2015, NASA has recently established the IceBridge program to provide continuity between missions. A major goal of IceBridge is to obtain a sea-ice thickness time series via airborne surveys over the Arctic and Southern Oceans. Typically two laser altimeters, the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) and the Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS), are utilized during IceBridge flights. Using laser altimetry simulations of conventional analogue systems such as ICESat, LVIS and ATM, with the multi-beam system proposed for ICESat-2, we investigate differences in measurements gathered at varying spatial resolutions and the impact on sea-ice freeboard. We assess the ability of each system to reproduce the elevation distributions of two seaice models and discuss potential biases in lead detection and sea-surface elevation, arising from variable footprint size and spacing. The conventional systems accurately reproduce mean freeboard over 25km length scales, while ICESat-2 offers considerable improvements over its predecessor ICESat. In particular, its dense along-track sampling of the surface will allow flexibility in the algorithmic approaches taken to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio for accurate and precise freeboard retrieval.

  4. Immersion freezing of supermicron mineral dust particles: freezing results, testing different schemes for describing ice nucleation, and ice nucleation active site densities.

    PubMed

    Wheeler, M J; Mason, R H; Steunenberg, K; Wagstaff, M; Chou, C; Bertram, A K

    2015-05-14

    Ice nucleation on mineral dust particles is known to be an important process in the atmosphere. To accurately implement ice nucleation on mineral dust particles in atmospheric simulations, a suitable theory or scheme is desirable to describe laboratory freezing data in atmospheric models. In the following, we investigated ice nucleation by supermicron mineral dust particles [kaolinite and Arizona Test Dust (ATD)] in the immersion mode. The median freezing temperature for ATD was measured to be approximately -30 °C compared with approximately -36 °C for kaolinite. The freezing results were then used to test four different schemes previously used to describe ice nucleation in atmospheric models. In terms of ability to fit the data (quantified by calculating the reduced chi-squared values), the following order was found for ATD (from best to worst): active site, pdf-α, deterministic, single-α. For kaolinite, the following order was found (from best to worst): active site, deterministic, pdf-α, single-α. The variation in the predicted median freezing temperature per decade change in the cooling rate for each of the schemes was also compared with experimental results from other studies. The deterministic model predicts the median freezing temperature to be independent of cooling rate, while experimental results show a weak dependence on cooling rate. The single-α, pdf-α, and active site schemes all agree with the experimental results within roughly a factor of 2. On the basis of our results and previous results where different schemes were tested, the active site scheme is recommended for describing the freezing of ATD and kaolinite particles. We also used our ice nucleation results to determine the ice nucleation active site (INAS) density for the supermicron dust particles tested. Using the data, we show that the INAS densities of supermicron kaolinite and ATD particles studied here are smaller than the INAS densities of submicron kaolinite and ATD particles

  5. Breaking Off of Large Ice Masses From Hanging Glaciers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pralong, A.; Funk, M.

    In order to reduce damage to settlements or other installations (roads, railway, etc) and avoid loss of life, a forecast of the final failure time of ice masses is required. At present, the most promising approach for such a prediction is based on the regularity by which certain large ice masses accelerate prior to the instant of collapse. The lim- itation of this forecast lies in short-term irregularities and in the difficulties to obtain sufficiently accurate data. A better physical understanding of the breaking off process is required, in order to improve the forecasting method. Previous analyze has shown that a stepwise crack extension coupling with a viscous flow leads to the observed acceleration function. We propose another approach by considering a local damage evolution law (gener- alized Kachanow's law) coupled with Glen's flow law to simulate the spatial evolu- tion of damage in polycristalline ice, using a finite element computational model. The present study focuses on the transition from a diffuse to a localised damage reparti- tion occurring during the damage evolution. The influence of inhomogeneous initial conditions (inhomogeneity of the mechanical properties of ice, damage inhomogene- ity) and inhomogeneous boundary conditions on the damage repartition are especially investigated.

  6. Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Greve, R.; Malinen, M.; Martín, C.; Råback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Sacchettini, M.; Schäfer, M.; Seddik, H.; Thies, J.

    2013-08-01

    The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice sheet flow models, in their current state, were unable to provide accurate forecast for the increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice flow models, and as a result a significant number of new ice sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger-scale problems, earning the status of an ice sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. Elmer/Ice solves the full-Stokes equations, for isotropic but also anisotropic ice rheology, resolves the grounding line dynamics as a contact problem, and contains various basal friction laws. Derived fields, like the age of the ice, the strain rate or stress, can also be computed. Elmer/Ice includes two recently proposed inverse methods to infer badly known parameters. Elmer is a highly parallelised code thanks to recent developments and the implementation of a block preconditioned solver for the Stokes system. In this paper, all these components are presented in detail, as well as the numerical performance of the Stokes solver and developments planned for the future.

  7. Importance of aggregation and small ice crystals in cirrus clouds, based on observations and an ice particle growth model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, David L.; Chai, Steven K.; Dong, Yayi; Arnott, W. Patrick; Hallett, John

    1993-01-01

    The 1 November 1986 FIRE I case study was used to test an ice particle growth model which predicts bimodal size spectra in cirrus clouds. The model was developed from an analytically based model which predicts the height evolution of monomodal ice particle size spectra from the measured ice water content (IWC). Size spectra from the monomodal model are represented by a gamma distribution, N(D) = N(sub o)D(exp nu)exp(-lambda D), where D = ice particle maximum dimension. The slope parameter, lambda, and the parameter N(sub o) are predicted from the IWC through the growth processes of vapor diffusion and aggregation. The model formulation is analytical, computationally efficient, and well suited for incorporation into larger models. The monomodal model has been validated against two other cirrus cloud case studies. From the monomodal size spectra, the size distributions which determine concentrations of ice particles less than about 150 mu m are predicted.

  8. Parameterizing Size Distribution in Ice Clouds

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    DeSlover, Daniel; Mitchell, David L.

    2009-09-25

    of ice cloud optical properties formulated in terms of PSD parameters in combination with remote measurements of thermal radiances to characterize the small mode. This is possible since the absorption efficiency (Qabs) of small mode crystals is larger at 12 µm wavelength relative to 11 µm wavelength due to the process of wave resonance or photon tunneling more active at 12 µm. This makes the 12/11 µm absorption optical depth ratio (or equivalently the 12/11 µm Qabs ratio) a means for detecting the relative concentration of small ice particles in cirrus. Using this principle, this project tested and developed PSD schemes that can help characterize cirrus clouds at each of the three ARM sites: SGP, NSA and TWP. This was the main effort of this project. These PSD schemes and ice sedimentation velocities predicted from them have been used to test the new cirrus microphysics parameterization in the GCM known as the Community Climate Systems Model (CCSM) as part of an ongoing collaboration with NCAR. Regarding the second problem, we developed and did preliminary testing on a passive thermal method for retrieving the total water path (TWP) of Arctic mixed phase clouds where TWPs are often in the range of 20 to 130 g m-2 (difficult for microwave radiometers to accurately measure). We also developed a new radar method for retrieving the cloud ice water content (IWC), which can be vertically integrated to yield the ice water path (IWP). These techniques were combined to determine the IWP and liquid water path (LWP) in Arctic clouds, and hence the fraction of ice and liquid water. We have tested this approach using a case study from the ARM field campaign called M-PACE (Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment). This research led to a new satellite remote sensing method that appears promising for detecting low levels of liquid water in high clouds typically between -20 and -36 oC. We hope to develop this method in future research.« less

  9. Using Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation (Web-ICE) models as a tool for acute toxicity prediction

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to assess risk of contaminants to taxa with limited or no toxicity data available, Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) models have been developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to extrapolate contaminant sensitivity predictions based on data from commo...

  10. Comparing a thermo-mechanical Weichselian ice sheet reconstruction to GIA driven reconstructions: aspects of earth response and ice configuration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, P.; Lund, B.; Näslund, J.-O.

    2013-12-01

    In this study we compare a recent reconstruction of the Weichselian ice-sheet as simulated by the University of Main ice-sheet model (UMISM) to two reconstructions commonly used in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modeling: ICE-5G and ANU (also known as RSES). The UMISM reconstruction is carried out on a regional scale based on thermo-mechanical modelling whereas ANU and ICE-5G are global models based on the sea-level equation. The Weichselian ice-sheet in the three models are compared directly in terms of ice volume, extent and thickness, as well as in terms of predicted glacial isostatic adjustment in Fennoscandia. The three reconstructions display significant differences. UMISM and ANU includes phases of pronounced advance and retreat prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), whereas the thickness and areal extent of the ICE-5G ice-sheet is more or less constant up until LGM. The final retreat of the ice-sheet initiates at earliest time in ICE-5G and latest in UMISM, while ice free conditions are reached earliest in UMISM and latest in ICE-5G. The post-LGM deglaciation style also differs notably between the ice models. While the UMISM simulation includes two temporary halts in the deglaciation, the later during the Younger Dryas, ANU only includes a decreased deglaciation rate during Younger Dryas and ICE-5G retreats at a relatively constant pace after an initial slow phase. Moreover, ANU and ICE-5G melt relatively uniformly over the entire ice-sheet in contrast to UMISM which melts preferentially from the edges. We find that all three reconstructions fit the present day uplift rates over Fennoscandia and the observed relative sea-level curve along the Ångerman river equally well, albeit with different optimal earth model parameters. Given identical earth models, ICE-5G predicts the fastest present day uplift rates and ANU the slowest, ANU also prefers the thinnest lithosphere. Moreover, only for ANU can a unique best fit model be determined. For UMISM and ICE

  11. Validation of Airborne FMCW Radar Measurements of Snow Thickness Over Sea Ice in Antarctica

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Galin, Natalia; Worby, Anthony; Markus, Thorsten; Leuschen, Carl; Gogineni, Prasad

    2012-01-01

    Antarctic sea ice and its snow cover are integral components of the global climate system, yet many aspects of their vertical dimensions are poorly understood, making their representation in global climate models poor. Remote sensing is the key to monitoring the dynamic nature of sea ice and its snow cover. Reliable and accurate snow thickness data are currently a highly sought after data product. Remotely sensed snow thickness measurements can provide an indication of precipitation levels, predicted to increase with effects of climate change in the polar regions. Airborne techniques provide a means for regional-scale estimation of snow depth and distribution. Accurate regional-scale snow thickness data will also facilitate an increase in the accuracy of sea ice thickness retrieval from satellite altimeter freeboard estimates. The airborne data sets are easier to validate with in situ measurements and are better suited to validating satellite algorithms when compared with in situ techniques. This is primarily due to two factors: better chance of getting coincident in situ and airborne data sets and the tractability of comparison between an in situ data set and the airborne data set averaged over the footprint of the antennas. A 28-GHz frequency modulated continuous wave (FMCW) radar loaned by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets to the Australian Antarctic Division is used to measure snow thickness over sea ice in East Antarctica. Provided with the radar design parameters, the expected performance parameters of the radar are summarized. The necessary conditions for unambiguous identification of the airsnow and snowice layers for the radar are presented. Roughnesses of the snow and ice surfaces are found to be dominant determinants in the effectiveness of layer identification for this radar. Finally, this paper presents the first in situ validated snow thickness estimates over sea ice in Antarctica derived from an FMCW radar on a helicopterborne platform.

  12. Multi-fidelity machine learning models for accurate bandgap predictions of solids

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Pilania, Ghanshyam; Gubernatis, James E.; Lookman, Turab

    Here, we present a multi-fidelity co-kriging statistical learning framework that combines variable-fidelity quantum mechanical calculations of bandgaps to generate a machine-learned model that enables low-cost accurate predictions of the bandgaps at the highest fidelity level. Additionally, the adopted Gaussian process regression formulation allows us to predict the underlying uncertainties as a measure of our confidence in the predictions. In using a set of 600 elpasolite compounds as an example dataset and using semi-local and hybrid exchange correlation functionals within density functional theory as two levels of fidelities, we demonstrate the excellent learning performance of the method against actual high fidelitymore » quantum mechanical calculations of the bandgaps. The presented statistical learning method is not restricted to bandgaps or electronic structure methods and extends the utility of high throughput property predictions in a significant way.« less

  13. Multi-fidelity machine learning models for accurate bandgap predictions of solids

    DOE PAGES

    Pilania, Ghanshyam; Gubernatis, James E.; Lookman, Turab

    2016-12-28

    Here, we present a multi-fidelity co-kriging statistical learning framework that combines variable-fidelity quantum mechanical calculations of bandgaps to generate a machine-learned model that enables low-cost accurate predictions of the bandgaps at the highest fidelity level. Additionally, the adopted Gaussian process regression formulation allows us to predict the underlying uncertainties as a measure of our confidence in the predictions. In using a set of 600 elpasolite compounds as an example dataset and using semi-local and hybrid exchange correlation functionals within density functional theory as two levels of fidelities, we demonstrate the excellent learning performance of the method against actual high fidelitymore » quantum mechanical calculations of the bandgaps. The presented statistical learning method is not restricted to bandgaps or electronic structure methods and extends the utility of high throughput property predictions in a significant way.« less

  14. Stochastic ice stream dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca

    2016-01-01

    Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution. PMID:27457960

  15. Measuring the value of accurate link prediction for network seeding.

    PubMed

    Wei, Yijin; Spencer, Gwen

    2017-01-01

    The influence-maximization literature seeks small sets of individuals whose structural placement in the social network can drive large cascades of behavior. Optimization efforts to find the best seed set often assume perfect knowledge of the network topology. Unfortunately, social network links are rarely known in an exact way. When do seeding strategies based on less-than-accurate link prediction provide valuable insight? We introduce optimized-against-a-sample ([Formula: see text]) performance to measure the value of optimizing seeding based on a noisy observation of a network. Our computational study investigates [Formula: see text] under several threshold-spread models in synthetic and real-world networks. Our focus is on measuring the value of imprecise link information. The level of investment in link prediction that is strategic appears to depend closely on spread model: in some parameter ranges investments in improving link prediction can pay substantial premiums in cascade size. For other ranges, such investments would be wasted. Several trends were remarkably consistent across topologies.

  16. Multiphase Reactive Transport and Platelet Ice Accretion in the Sea Ice of McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buffo, J. J.; Schmidt, B. E.; Huber, C.

    2018-01-01

    Sea ice seasonally to interannually forms a thermal, chemical, and physical boundary between the atmosphere and hydrosphere over tens of millions of square kilometers of ocean. Its presence affects both local and global climate and ocean dynamics, ice shelf processes, and biological communities. Accurate incorporation of sea ice growth and decay, and its associated thermal and physiochemical processes, is underrepresented in large-scale models due to the complex physics that dictate oceanic ice formation and evolution. Two phenomena complicate sea ice simulation, particularly in the Antarctic: the multiphase physics of reactive transport brought about by the inhomogeneous solidification of seawater, and the buoyancy driven accretion of platelet ice formed by supercooled ice shelf water onto the basal surface of the overlying ice. Here a one-dimensional finite difference model capable of simulating both processes is developed and tested against ice core data. Temperature, salinity, liquid fraction, fluid velocity, total salt content, and ice structure are computed during model runs. The model results agree well with empirical observations and simulations highlight the effect platelet ice accretion has on overall ice thickness and characteristics. Results from sensitivity studies emphasize the need to further constrain sea ice microstructure and the associated physics, particularly permeability-porosity relationships, if a complete model of sea ice evolution is to be obtained. Additionally, implications for terrestrial ice shelves and icy moons in the solar system are discussed.

  17. Developing A Model for Lake Ice Phenology Using Satellite Remote Sensing Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skoglund, S. K.; Weathers, K. C.; Norouzi, H.; Prakash, S.; Ewing, H. A.

    2017-12-01

    Many northern temperate freshwater lakes are freezing over later and thawing earlier. This shift in timing, and the resulting shorter duration of seasonal ice cover, is expected to impact ecological processes, negatively affecting aquatic species and the quality of water we drink. Long-term, direct observations have been used to analyze changes in ice phenology, but those data are sparse relative to the number of lakes affected. Here we develop a model to utilize remote sensing data in approximating the dates of ice-on and ice-off for many years over a variety of lakes. Day and night surface temperatures from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra (MYD11A1 and MOD11A1 data products) for 2002-2017 were utilized in combination with observed ice-on and ice-off dates of Lake Auburn, Maine, to determine the ability of MODIS data to match ground-based observations. A moving average served to interpolate MODIS temperature data to fill data gaps from cloudy days. The nighttime data were used for ice-off, and the daytime measurements were used for ice-on predictions to avoid fluctuations between day and night ice/water status. The 0˚C intercepts of those data were used to mark approximate days of ice-on or ice-off. This revealed that approximations for ice-off dates were satisfactory (average ±8.2 days) for Lake Auburn as well as for Lake Sunapee, New Hampshire (average ±8.1 days), while approximations for Lake Auburn ice-on were less accurate and showed consistently earlier-than-observed ice-on dates (average -33.8 days). The comparison of observed and remotely sensed Lake Auburn ice cover duration showed relative agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.46. Other remote sensing observations, such as the new GOES-R satellite, and further exploration of the ice formation process can improve ice-on approximation methods. The model shows promise for estimating ice-on, ice-off, and ice cover duration for northern temperate lakes.

  18. Accurate prediction of secondary metabolite gene clusters in filamentous fungi.

    PubMed

    Andersen, Mikael R; Nielsen, Jakob B; Klitgaard, Andreas; Petersen, Lene M; Zachariasen, Mia; Hansen, Tilde J; Blicher, Lene H; Gotfredsen, Charlotte H; Larsen, Thomas O; Nielsen, Kristian F; Mortensen, Uffe H

    2013-01-02

    Biosynthetic pathways of secondary metabolites from fungi are currently subject to an intense effort to elucidate the genetic basis for these compounds due to their large potential within pharmaceutics and synthetic biochemistry. The preferred method is methodical gene deletions to identify supporting enzymes for key synthases one cluster at a time. In this study, we design and apply a DNA expression array for Aspergillus nidulans in combination with legacy data to form a comprehensive gene expression compendium. We apply a guilt-by-association-based analysis to predict the extent of the biosynthetic clusters for the 58 synthases active in our set of experimental conditions. A comparison with legacy data shows the method to be accurate in 13 of 16 known clusters and nearly accurate for the remaining 3 clusters. Furthermore, we apply a data clustering approach, which identifies cross-chemistry between physically separate gene clusters (superclusters), and validate this both with legacy data and experimentally by prediction and verification of a supercluster consisting of the synthase AN1242 and the prenyltransferase AN11080, as well as identification of the product compound nidulanin A. We have used A. nidulans for our method development and validation due to the wealth of available biochemical data, but the method can be applied to any fungus with a sequenced and assembled genome, thus supporting further secondary metabolite pathway elucidation in the fungal kingdom.

  19. Melting beneath Greenland outlet glaciers and ice streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexander, David; Perrette, Mahé; Beckmann, Johanna

    2015-04-01

    Basal melting of fast-flowing Greenland outlet glaciers and ice streams due to frictional heating at the ice-bed interface contributes significantly to total glacier mass balance and subglacial meltwater flux, yet modelling this basal melt process in Greenland has received minimal research attention. A one-dimensional dynamic ice-flow model is calibrated to the present day longitudinal profiles of 10 major Greenland outlet glaciers and ice streams (including the Jakobshavn Isbrae, Petermann Glacier and Helheim Glacier) and is validated against published ice flow and surface elevation measurements. Along each longitudinal profile, basal melt is calculated as a function of ice flow velocity and basal shear stress. The basal shear stress is dependent on the effective pressure (difference between ice overburden pressure and water pressure), basal roughness and a sliding parametrization. Model output indicates that where outlet glaciers and ice streams terminate into the ocean with either a small floating ice tongue or no floating tongue whatsoever, the proportion of basal melt to total melt (surface, basal and submarine melt) is 5-10% (e.g. Jakobshavn Isbrae; Daugaard-Jensen Glacier). This proportion is, however, negligible where larger ice tongues lose mass mostly by submarine melt (~1%; e.g. Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier). Modelled basal melt is highest immediately upvalley of the grounding line, with contributions typically up to 20-40% of the total melt for slippery beds and up to 30-70% for resistant beds. Additionally, modelled grounding line and calving front migration inland for all outlet glaciers and ice streams of hundreds of metres to several kilometres occurs. Including basal melt due to frictional heating in outlet glacier and ice stream models is important for more accurately modelling mass balance and subglacial meltwater flux, and therefore, more accurately modelling outlet glacier and ice stream dynamics and responses to future climate change.

  20. Simple prediction scores predict good and devastating outcomes after stroke more accurately than physicians.

    PubMed

    Reid, John Michael; Dai, Dingwei; Delmonte, Susanna; Counsell, Carl; Phillips, Stephen J; MacLeod, Mary Joan

    2017-05-01

    physicians are often asked to prognosticate soon after a patient presents with stroke. This study aimed to compare two outcome prediction scores (Five Simple Variables [FSV] score and the PLAN [Preadmission comorbidities, Level of consciousness, Age, and focal Neurologic deficit]) with informal prediction by physicians. demographic and clinical variables were prospectively collected from consecutive patients hospitalised with acute ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke (2012-13). In-person or telephone follow-up at 6 months established vital and functional status (modified Rankin score [mRS]). Area under the receiver operating curves (AUC) was used to establish prediction score performance. five hundred and seventy-five patients were included; 46% female, median age 76 years, 88% ischaemic stroke. Six months after stroke, 47% of patients had a good outcome (alive and independent, mRS 0-2) and 26% a devastating outcome (dead or severely dependent, mRS 5-6). The FSV and PLAN scores were superior to physician prediction (AUCs of 0.823-0.863 versus 0.773-0.805, P < 0.0001) for good and devastating outcomes. The FSV score was superior to the PLAN score for predicting good outcomes and vice versa for devastating outcomes (P < 0.001). Outcome prediction was more accurate for those with later presentations (>24 hours from onset). the FSV and PLAN scores are validated in this population for outcome prediction after both ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. The FSV score is the least complex of all developed scores and can assist outcome prediction by physicians. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  1. Accurate Prediction of Contact Numbers for Multi-Spanning Helical Membrane Proteins

    PubMed Central

    Li, Bian; Mendenhall, Jeffrey; Nguyen, Elizabeth Dong; Weiner, Brian E.; Fischer, Axel W.; Meiler, Jens

    2017-01-01

    Prediction of the three-dimensional (3D) structures of proteins by computational methods is acknowledged as an unsolved problem. Accurate prediction of important structural characteristics such as contact number is expected to accelerate the otherwise slow progress being made in the prediction of 3D structure of proteins. Here, we present a dropout neural network-based method, TMH-Expo, for predicting the contact number of transmembrane helix (TMH) residues from sequence. Neuronal dropout is a strategy where certain neurons of the network are excluded from back-propagation to prevent co-adaptation of hidden-layer neurons. By using neuronal dropout, overfitting was significantly reduced and performance was noticeably improved. For multi-spanning helical membrane proteins, TMH-Expo achieved a remarkable Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.69 between predicted and experimental values and a mean absolute error of only 1.68. In addition, among those membrane protein–membrane protein interface residues, 76.8% were correctly predicted. Mapping of predicted contact numbers onto structures indicates that contact numbers predicted by TMH-Expo reflect the exposure patterns of TMHs and reveal membrane protein–membrane protein interfaces, reinforcing the potential of predicted contact numbers to be used as restraints for 3D structure prediction and protein–protein docking. TMH-Expo can be accessed via a Web server at www.meilerlab.org. PMID:26804342

  2. Vapor deposition of water on graphitic surfaces: formation of amorphous ice, bilayer ice, ice I, and liquid water.

    PubMed

    Lupi, Laura; Kastelowitz, Noah; Molinero, Valeria

    2014-11-14

    Carbonaceous surfaces are a major source of atmospheric particles and could play an important role in the formation of ice. Here we investigate through molecular simulations the stability, metastability, and molecular pathways of deposition of amorphous ice, bilayer ice, and ice I from water vapor on graphitic and atomless Lennard-Jones surfaces as a function of temperature. We find that bilayer ice is the most stable ice polymorph for small cluster sizes, nevertheless it can grow metastable well above its region of thermodynamic stability. In agreement with experiments, the simulations predict that on increasing temperature the outcome of water deposition is amorphous ice, bilayer ice, ice I, and liquid water. The deposition nucleation of bilayer ice and ice I is preceded by the formation of small liquid clusters, which have two wetting states: bilayer pancake-like (wetting) at small cluster size and droplet-like (non-wetting) at larger cluster size. The wetting state of liquid clusters determines which ice polymorph is nucleated: bilayer ice nucleates from wetting bilayer liquid clusters and ice I from non-wetting liquid clusters. The maximum temperature for nucleation of bilayer ice on flat surfaces, T(B)(max) is given by the maximum temperature for which liquid water clusters reach the equilibrium melting line of bilayer ice as wetting bilayer clusters. Increasing water-surface attraction stabilizes the pancake-like wetting state of liquid clusters leading to larger T(B)(max) for the flat non-hydrogen bonding surfaces of this study. The findings of this study should be of relevance for the understanding of ice formation by deposition mode on carbonaceous atmospheric particles, including soot.

  3. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    DOE PAGES

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; ...

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of chargedmore » peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.« less

  4. A simple video-based timing system for on-ice team testing in ice hockey: a technical report.

    PubMed

    Larson, David P; Noonan, Benjamin C

    2014-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe and evaluate a newly developed on-ice timing system for team evaluation in the sport of ice hockey. We hypothesized that this new, simple, inexpensive, timing system would prove to be highly accurate and reliable. Six adult subjects (age 30.4 ± 6.2 years) performed on ice tests of acceleration and conditioning. The performance times of the subjects were recorded using a handheld stopwatch, photocell, and high-speed (240 frames per second) video. These results were then compared to allow for accuracy calculations of the stopwatch and video as compared with filtered photocell timing that was used as the "gold standard." Accuracy was evaluated using maximal differences, typical error/coefficient of variation (CV), and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) between the timing methods. The reliability of the video method was evaluated using the same variables in a test-retest analysis both within and between evaluators. The video timing method proved to be both highly accurate (ICC: 0.96-0.99 and CV: 0.1-0.6% as compared with the photocell method) and reliable (ICC and CV within and between evaluators: 0.99 and 0.08%, respectively). This video-based timing method provides a very rapid means of collecting a high volume of very accurate and reliable on-ice measures of skating speed and conditioning, and can easily be adapted to other testing surfaces and parameters.

  5. Wind-Driven Formation of Ice Bridges in Straits.

    PubMed

    Rallabandi, Bhargav; Zheng, Zhong; Winton, Michael; Stone, Howard A

    2017-03-24

    Ice bridges are static structures composed of tightly packed sea ice that can form during the course of its flow through a narrow strait. Despite their important role in local ecology and climate, the formation and breakup of ice bridges is not well understood and has proved difficult to predict. Using long-wave approximations and a continuum description of sea ice dynamics, we develop a one-dimensional theory for the wind-driven formation of ice bridges in narrow straits, which is verified against direct numerical simulations. We show that for a given wind stress and minimum and maximum channel widths, a steady-state ice bridge can only form beyond a critical value of the thickness and the compactness of the ice field. The theory also makes quantitative predictions for ice fluxes, which are particularly useful to estimate the ice export associated with the breakup of ice bridges. We note that similar ideas are applicable to dense granular flows in confined geometries.

  6. ION COMPOSITION ELUCIDATION (ICE)

    EPA Science Inventory



    Ion Composition Elucidation (ICE) utilizes selected ion recording with a double focusing mass spectrometer to simultaneously determine exact masses and relative isotopic abundances from mass peak profiles. These can be determined more accurately and at higher sensitivity ...

  7. Navier-Stokes analysis of airfoils with leading edge ice accretions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potapczuk, Mark G.

    1993-01-01

    A numerical analysis of the flowfield characteristics and the performance degradation of an airfoil with leading edge ice accretions was performed. The important fluid dynamic processes were identified and calculated. Among these were the leading edge separation bubble at low angles of attack, complete separation on the low pressure surface resulting in premature shell, drag rise due to the ice shape, and the effects of angle of attack on the separated flow field. Comparisons to experimental results were conducted to confirm these calculations. A computer code which solves the Navier-Stokes equations in two dimensions, ARC2D, was used to perform the calculations. A Modified Mixing Length turbulence model was developed to produce grids for several ice shape and airfoil combinations. Results indicate that the ability to predict overall performance characteristics, such as lift and drag, at low angles of attack is excellent. Transition location is important for accurately determining separation bubble shape. Details of the flowfield in and downstream of the separated regions requires some modifications. Calculations for the stalled airfoil indicate periodic shedding of vorticity that was generated aft of the ice accretion. Time averaged pressure values produce results which compare favorably with experimental information. A turbulence model which accounts for the history effects in the flow may be justified.

  8. Norwegian remote sensing experiment in a marginal ice zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farrelly, B.; Johannessen, J.A.; Svendsen, E.; Kloster, K.; Horjen, I.; Matzler, C.; Crawford, J.; Harrington, R.; Jones, L.; Swift, C.; Delnore, V.E.; Cavalieri, D.; Gloersen, P.; Hsiao, S.V.; Shemdin, O.H.; Thompson, T.W.; Ramseier, R.O.; Johannessen, O.M.; Campbell, W.J.

    1983-01-01

    The Norwegian Remote Sensing Experiment in the marginal ice zone north of Svalbard took place in fall 1979. Coordinated passive and active microwave measurements were obtained from shipborne, airborne, and satellite instruments together with in situ observations. The obtained spectra of emissivity (frequency range, 5 to 100 gigahertz) should improve identification of ice types and estimates of ice concentration. Mesoscale features along the ice edge were revealed by a 1.215-gigahertz synthetic aperture radar. Ice edge location by the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer was shown to be accurate to within 10 kilometers.

  9. Basal melt beneath whillans ice stream and ice streams A and C

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joughin, I.; Teluezyk, S.; Engelhardt, H.

    2002-01-01

    We have used a recently derived map of the velocity of Whillans Ice Stream and Ice Streams A and C to help estimate basal melt. Temperature was modeled with a simple vertical advection-diffusion equation, 'tuned' to match temperature profiles. We find that most of the melt occurs beneath the tributaries where larger basal shear stresses and thicker ice favors greater melt (e.g., 10-20 mm/yr). The occurrence of basal freezing is predicted beneath much of the ice plains of Ice Stream C and Whillans Ice Stream. Modelled melt rates for when Ice Stream C was active suggest there was just enough melt water generated in its tributaries to balance basal freezing on its ice plain. Net basal melt for Whillans Ice Stream is positive due to smaller basal temperature gradients. Modelled temperatures on Whillans Ice Stream, however, were constrained by a single temperature profile at UpB. Basal temperature gradients for Whillans B1 and Ice Stream A may have conditions more similar to those beneath Ice Streams C and D, in which case, there may not be sufficient melt to sustain motion. This would be consistent with the steady deceleration of Whillans stream over the last few decades.

  10. An accurate model for predicting high frequency noise of nanoscale NMOS SOI transistors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Yanfei; Cui, Jie; Mohammadi, Saeed

    2017-05-01

    A nonlinear and scalable model suitable for predicting high frequency noise of N-type Metal Oxide Semiconductor (NMOS) transistors is presented. The model is developed for a commercial 45 nm CMOS SOI technology and its accuracy is validated through comparison with measured performance of a microwave low noise amplifier. The model employs the virtual source nonlinear core and adds parasitic elements to accurately simulate the RF behavior of multi-finger NMOS transistors up to 40 GHz. For the first time, the traditional long-channel thermal noise model is supplemented with an injection noise model to accurately represent the noise behavior of these short-channel transistors up to 26 GHz. The developed model is simple and easy to extract, yet very accurate.

  11. SURVIVAL DEPTH OF ORGANICS IN ICES UNDER LOW-ENERGY ELECTRON RADIATION ({<=}2 keV)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Barnett, Irene Li; Lignell, Antti; Gudipati, Murthy S., E-mail: gudipati@jpl.nasa.gov

    2012-03-01

    Icy surfaces in our solar system are continually modified and sputtered with electrons, ions, and photons from solar wind, cosmic rays, and local magnetospheres in the cases of Jovian and Saturnian satellites. In addition to their prevalence, electrons specifically are expected to be a principal radiolytic agent on these satellites. Among energetic particles (electrons and ions), electrons penetrate by far the deepest into the ice and could cause damage to organic material of possible prebiotic and even biological importance. To determine if organic matter could survive and be detected through remote sensing or in situ explorations on these surfaces, suchmore » as water ice-rich Europa, it is important to obtain accurate data quantifying electron-induced chemistry and damage depths of organics at varying incident electron energies. Experiments reported here address the quantification issue at lower electron energies (100 eV-2 keV) through rigorous laboratory data analysis obtained using a novel methodology. A polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecule, pyrene, embedded in amorphous water ice films of controlled thicknesses served as an organic probe. UV-VIS spectroscopic measurements enabled quantitative assessment of organic matter survival depths in water ice. Eight ices of various thicknesses were studied to determine damage depths more accurately. The electron damage depths were found to be linear, approximately 110 nm keV{sup -1}, in the tested range which is noticeably higher than predictions by Monte Carlo simulations by up to 100%. We conclude that computational simulations underestimate electron damage depths in the energy region {<=}2 keV. If this trend holds at higher electron energies as well, present models utilizing radiation-induced organic chemistry in icy solar system bodies need to be revisited. For interstellar ices of a few micron thicknesses, we conclude that low-energy electrons generated through photoionization processes in the interstellar

  12. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Stratified Steel Temperature During Holding Period of Ladle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deodhar, Anirudh; Singh, Umesh; Shukla, Rishabh; Gautham, B. P.; Singh, Amarendra K.

    2017-04-01

    Thermal stratification of liquid steel in a ladle during the holding period and the teeming operation has a direct bearing on the superheat available at the caster and hence on the caster set points such as casting speed and cooling rates. The changes in the caster set points are typically carried out based on temperature measurements at the end of tundish outlet. Thermal prediction models provide advance knowledge of the influence of process and design parameters on the steel temperature at various stages. Therefore, they can be used in making accurate decisions about the caster set points in real time. However, this requires both fast and accurate thermal prediction models. In this work, we develop a surrogate model for the prediction of thermal stratification using data extracted from a set of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, pre-determined using design of experiments technique. Regression method is used for training the predictor. The model predicts the stratified temperature profile instantaneously, for a given set of process parameters such as initial steel temperature, refractory heat content, slag thickness, and holding time. More than 96 pct of the predicted values are within an error range of ±5 K (±5 °C), when compared against corresponding CFD results. Considering its accuracy and computational efficiency, the model can be extended for thermal control of casting operations. This work also sets a benchmark for developing similar thermal models for downstream processes such as tundish and caster.

  13. Competitive Abilities in Experimental Microcosms Are Accurately Predicted by a Demographic Index for R*

    PubMed Central

    Murrell, Ebony G.; Juliano, Steven A.

    2012-01-01

    Resource competition theory predicts that R*, the equilibrium resource amount yielding zero growth of a consumer population, should predict species' competitive abilities for that resource. This concept has been supported for unicellular organisms, but has not been well-tested for metazoans, probably due to the difficulty of raising experimental populations to equilibrium and measuring population growth rates for species with long or complex life cycles. We developed an index (Rindex) of R* based on demography of one insect cohort, growing from egg to adult in a non-equilibrium setting, and tested whether Rindex yielded accurate predictions of competitive abilities using mosquitoes as a model system. We estimated finite rate of increase (λ′) from demographic data for cohorts of three mosquito species raised with different detritus amounts, and estimated each species' Rindex using nonlinear regressions of λ′ vs. initial detritus amount. All three species' Rindex differed significantly, and accurately predicted competitive hierarchy of the species determined in simultaneous pairwise competition experiments. Our Rindex could provide estimates and rigorous statistical comparisons of competitive ability for organisms for which typical chemostat methods and equilibrium population conditions are impractical. PMID:22970128

  14. Ice Fog and Light Snow Measurements Using a High-Resolution Camera System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuhn, Thomas; Gultepe, Ismail

    2016-09-01

    Ice fog, diamond dust, and light snow usually form over extremely cold weather conditions, and they affect both visibility and Earth's radiative energy budget. Prediction of these hydrometeors using models is difficult because of limited knowledge of the microphysical properties at the small size ranges due to measurement issues. These phenomena need to be better represented in forecast and climate models; therefore, in addition to remote sensing accurate measurements using ground-based instrumentation are required. An imaging instrument, aimed at measuring ice fog and light snow particles, has been built and is presented here. The ice crystal imaging (ICI) probe samples ice particles into a vertical, tapered inlet with an inlet flow rate of 11 L min-1. A laser beam across the vertical air flow containing the ice crystals allows for their detection by a photodetector collecting the scattered light. Detected particles are then imaged with high optical resolution. An illuminating LED flash and image capturing are triggered by the photodetector. In this work, ICI measurements collected during the fog remote sensing and modeling (FRAM) project, which took place during Winter of 2010-2011 in Yellowknife, NWT, Canada, are summarized and challenges related to measuring small ice particles are described. The majority of ice particles during the 2-month-long campaign had sizes between 300 and 800 μm. During ice fog events the size distribution measured had a lower mode diameter of 300 μm compared to the overall campaign average with mode at 500 μm.

  15. Searching for an Accurate Marker-Based Prediction of an Individual Quantitative Trait in Molecular Plant Breeding

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Yong-Bi; Yang, Mo-Hua; Zeng, Fangqin; Biligetu, Bill

    2017-01-01

    Molecular plant breeding with the aid of molecular markers has played an important role in modern plant breeding over the last two decades. Many marker-based predictions for quantitative traits have been made to enhance parental selection, but the trait prediction accuracy remains generally low, even with the aid of dense, genome-wide SNP markers. To search for more accurate trait-specific prediction with informative SNP markers, we conducted a literature review on the prediction issues in molecular plant breeding and on the applicability of an RNA-Seq technique for developing function-associated specific trait (FAST) SNP markers. To understand whether and how FAST SNP markers could enhance trait prediction, we also performed a theoretical reasoning on the effectiveness of these markers in a trait-specific prediction, and verified the reasoning through computer simulation. To the end, the search yielded an alternative to regular genomic selection with FAST SNP markers that could be explored to achieve more accurate trait-specific prediction. Continuous search for better alternatives is encouraged to enhance marker-based predictions for an individual quantitative trait in molecular plant breeding. PMID:28729875

  16. Updating the Skating Multistage Aerobic Test and Correction for V[Combining Dot Above]O2max Prediction Using a New Skating Economy Index in Elite Youth Ice Hockey Players.

    PubMed

    Allisse, Maxime; Bui, Hung Tien; Léger, Luc; Comtois, Alain-Steve; Leone, Mario

    2018-05-07

    Allisse, M, Bui, HT, Léger, L, Comtois, A-S, and Leone, M. Updating the skating multistage aerobic test and correction for V[Combining Dot Above]O2max prediction using a new skating economy index in elite youth ice hockey players. J Strength Cond Res XX(X): 000-000, 2018-A number of field tests, including the skating multistage aerobic test (SMAT), have been developed to predict V[Combining Dot Above]O2max in ice hockey players. The SMAT, like most field tests, assumes that participants who reach a given stage have the same oxygen uptake, which is not usually true. Thus, the objectives of this research are to update the V[Combining Dot Above]O2 values during the SMAT using a portable breath-by-breath metabolic analyzer and to propose a simple index of skating economy to improve the prediction of oxygen uptake. Twenty-six elite hockey players (age 15.8 ± 1.3 years) participated in this study. The oxygen uptake was assessed using a portable metabolic analyzer (K4b) during an on-ice maximal shuttle skate test. To develop an index of skating economy called the skating stride index (SSI), the number of skating strides was compiled for each stage of the test. The SMAT enabled the prediction of the V[Combining Dot Above]O2max (ml·kg·min) from the maximal velocity (m·s) and the SSI (skating strides·kg) using the following regression equation: V[Combining Dot Above]O2max = (14.94 × maximal velocity) + (3.68 × SSI) - 24.98 (r = 0.95, SEE = 1.92). This research allowed for the update of the oxygen uptake values of the SMAT and proposed a simple measure of skating efficiency for a more accurate evaluation of V[Combining Dot Above]O2max in elite youth hockey players. By comparing the highest and lowest observed SSI scores in our sample, it was noted that the V[Combining Dot Above]O2 values can vary by up to 5 ml·kg·min. Our results suggest that skating economy should be included in the prediction of V[Combining Dot Above]O2max to improve prediction accuracy.

  17. SIFTER search: a web server for accurate phylogeny-based protein function prediction

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sahraeian, Sayed M.; Luo, Kevin R.; Brenner, Steven E.

    We are awash in proteins discovered through high-throughput sequencing projects. As only a minuscule fraction of these have been experimentally characterized, computational methods are widely used for automated annotation. Here, we introduce a user-friendly web interface for accurate protein function prediction using the SIFTER algorithm. SIFTER is a state-of-the-art sequence-based gene molecular function prediction algorithm that uses a statistical model of function evolution to incorporate annotations throughout the phylogenetic tree. Due to the resources needed by the SIFTER algorithm, running SIFTER locally is not trivial for most users, especially for large-scale problems. The SIFTER web server thus provides access tomore » precomputed predictions on 16 863 537 proteins from 232 403 species. Users can explore SIFTER predictions with queries for proteins, species, functions, and homologs of sequences not in the precomputed prediction set. Lastly, the SIFTER web server is accessible at http://sifter.berkeley.edu/ and the source code can be downloaded.« less

  18. SIFTER search: a web server for accurate phylogeny-based protein function prediction

    DOE PAGES

    Sahraeian, Sayed M.; Luo, Kevin R.; Brenner, Steven E.

    2015-05-15

    We are awash in proteins discovered through high-throughput sequencing projects. As only a minuscule fraction of these have been experimentally characterized, computational methods are widely used for automated annotation. Here, we introduce a user-friendly web interface for accurate protein function prediction using the SIFTER algorithm. SIFTER is a state-of-the-art sequence-based gene molecular function prediction algorithm that uses a statistical model of function evolution to incorporate annotations throughout the phylogenetic tree. Due to the resources needed by the SIFTER algorithm, running SIFTER locally is not trivial for most users, especially for large-scale problems. The SIFTER web server thus provides access tomore » precomputed predictions on 16 863 537 proteins from 232 403 species. Users can explore SIFTER predictions with queries for proteins, species, functions, and homologs of sequences not in the precomputed prediction set. Lastly, the SIFTER web server is accessible at http://sifter.berkeley.edu/ and the source code can be downloaded.« less

  19. XenoSite: accurately predicting CYP-mediated sites of metabolism with neural networks.

    PubMed

    Zaretzki, Jed; Matlock, Matthew; Swamidass, S Joshua

    2013-12-23

    Understanding how xenobiotic molecules are metabolized is important because it influences the safety, efficacy, and dose of medicines and how they can be modified to improve these properties. The cytochrome P450s (CYPs) are proteins responsible for metabolizing 90% of drugs on the market, and many computational methods can predict which atomic sites of a molecule--sites of metabolism (SOMs)--are modified during CYP-mediated metabolism. This study improves on prior methods of predicting CYP-mediated SOMs by using new descriptors and machine learning based on neural networks. The new method, XenoSite, is faster to train and more accurate by as much as 4% or 5% for some isozymes. Furthermore, some "incorrect" predictions made by XenoSite were subsequently validated as correct predictions by revaluation of the source literature. Moreover, XenoSite output is interpretable as a probability, which reflects both the confidence of the model that a particular atom is metabolized and the statistical likelihood that its prediction for that atom is correct.

  20. Ice Accretion Test Results for Three Large-Scale Swept-Wing Models in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broeren, Andy; Potapczuk, Mark; Lee, Sam; Malone, Adam; Paul, Ben; Woodard, Brian

    2016-01-01

    The design and certification of modern transport airplanes for flight in icing conditions increasing relies on three-dimensional numerical simulation tools for ice accretion prediction. There is currently no publically available, high-quality, ice accretion database upon which to evaluate the performance of icing simulation tools for large-scale swept wings that are representative of modern commercial transport airplanes. The purpose of this presentation is to present the results of a series of icing wind tunnel test campaigns whose aim was to provide an ice accretion database for large-scale, swept wings.

  1. A Computational Icing Effects Study for a Three-Dimensional Wing: Comparison with Experimental Data and Investigation of Spanwise Variation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, D.; Mogili, P.; Chalasani, S.; Addy, H.; Choo, Y.

    2004-01-01

    Steady-state solutions of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations were computed using the Colbalt flow solver for a constant-section, rectangular wing based on an extruded two-dimensional glaze ice shape. The one equation Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model was used. The results were compared with data obtained from a recent wind tunnel test. Computed results indicate that the steady RANS solutions do not accurately capture the recirculating region downstream of the ice accretion, even after a mesh refinement. The resulting predicted reattachment is farther downstream than indicated by the experimental data. Additionally, the solutions computed on a relatively coarse baseline mesh had detailed flow characteristics that were different from those computed on the refined mesh or the experimental data. Steady RANS solutions were also computed to investigate the effects of spanwise variation in the ice shape. The spanwise variation was obtained via a bleeding function that merged the ice shape with the clean wing using a sinusoidal spanwise variation. For these configurations, the results predicted for the extruded shape provided conservative estimates for the performance degradation of the wing. Additionally, the spanwise variation in the ice shape and the resulting differences in the flow fields did not significantly change the location of the primary reattachment.

  2. Identification of Clathrate Hydrates, Hexagonal Ice, Cubic Ice, and Liquid Water in Simulations: the CHILL+ Algorithm.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Andrew H; Molinero, Valeria

    2015-07-23

    Clathrate hydrates and ice I are the most abundant crystals of water. The study of their nucleation, growth, and decomposition using molecular simulations requires an accurate and efficient algorithm that distinguishes water molecules that belong to each of these crystals and the liquid phase. Existing algorithms identify ice or clathrates, but not both. This poses a challenge for cases in which ice and hydrate coexist, such as in the synthesis of clathrates from ice and the formation of ice from clathrates during self-preservation of methane hydrates. Here we present an efficient algorithm for the identification of clathrate hydrates, hexagonal ice, cubic ice, and liquid water in molecular simulations. CHILL+ uses the number of staggered and eclipsed water-water bonds to identify water molecules in cubic ice, hexagonal ice, and clathrate hydrate. CHILL+ is an extension of CHILL (Moore et al. Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. 2010, 12, 4124-4134), which identifies hexagonal and cubic ice but not clathrates. In addition to the identification of hydrates, CHILL+ significantly improves the detection of hexagonal ice up to its melting point. We validate the use of CHILL+ for the identification of stacking faults in ice and the nucleation and growth of clathrate hydrates. To our knowledge, this is the first algorithm that allows for the simultaneous identification of ice and clathrate hydrates, and it does so in a way that is competitive with respect to existing methods used to identify any of these crystals.

  3. Quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity in sea ice models

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urban, Nathan Mark

    The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.

  4. Decadal predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice : testing different initialization methods with an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

    2013-04-01

    The sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has increased since 1979 but the causes of this expansion have not been firmly identified. In particular, the contribution of internal variability and external forcing to this positive trend has not been fully established. In this region, the lack of observations and the overestimation of internal variability of the sea ice by contemporary General Circulation Models (GCMs) make it difficult to understand the behaviour of the sea ice. Nevertheless, if its evolution is governed by the internal variability of the system and if this internal variability is in some way predictable, a suitable initialization method should lead to simulations results that better fit the reality. Current GCMs decadal predictions are generally initialized through a nudging towards some observed fields. This relatively simple method does not seem to be appropriated to the initialization of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. The present study aims at identifying an initialization method that could improve the quality of the predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice at decadal timescales. We use LOVECLIM, an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity that allows us to perform, within a reasonable computational time, the large amount of simulations required to test systematically different initialization procedures. These involve three data assimilation methods: a nudging, a particle filter and an efficient particle filter. In a first step, simulations are performed in an idealized framework, i.e. data from a reference simulation of LOVECLIM are used instead of observations, herein after called pseudo-observations. In this configuration, the internal variability of the model obviously agrees with the one of the pseudo-observations. This allows us to get rid of the issues related to the overestimation of the internal variability by models compared to the observed one. This way, we can work out a suitable methodology to assess the efficiency of the

  5. The Effect of Topographic Shadowing by Ice on Irradiance in the Greenland Ice Sheet Ablation Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leidman, S. Z.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Ryan, J.; Cooper, M. G.; Smith, L. C.

    2017-12-01

    Accurately predicting runoff contributions to global sea level rise requires more refined surface mass balance (SMB) models of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Topographic shadowing has shown to be important in the SMB of snow-covered regions, yet SMB models for the GrIS generally ignore how surface topography affects spatial variability of incoming solar radiation on a surface. In the ablation zone of Southwest Greenland, deeply incised supraglacial drainage features, fracturing, and large-scale bed deformation result in extensive areas of rough surface topography. This topography blocks direct radiation such that shadowed areas receive less energy for melting while other topographic features such as peaks recieve more energy. In this study, we quantify how shadowing from local topography features changes incoming solar radiation. We apply the ArcGIS Pro Solar Radiation Toolset to calculate the direct and diffuse irradiance in sunlit and shadowed areas by determining the sun's movement for every half hour increment of 2016. Multiple digital elevation models (DEMs) with spatial resolutions ranging from 0.06 to 5m were derived from fixed wing and quadcopter UAV imagery collected in summer 2016 and the ArcticDEM dataset. Our findings show that shadowing significantly decreases irradiance compared to smoothed surfaces where local topography is removed. This decrease is exponentially proportional to the DEM pixel sized with 5m DEMs only able to capture a small percentage of the effect. Applying these calculations to the ArcticDEM to cover a larger study area indicates that decreases in irradiance are nonlinearly proportional to elevation with highly crevassed areas showing a larger effect from shadowing. Even so, shading at higher elevations reduces irradiance enough to result in several centimeters snow water equivalence (SWE) per year of over-prediction of runoff in SMB models. Furthermore, analysis of solar radiation products shows that shadowing predicts albedo

  6. User's manual for the NASA Lewis ice accretion/heat transfer prediction code with electrothermal deicer input

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Masiulaniec, Konstanty C.; Wright, William B.

    1994-01-01

    A version of LEWICE has been developed that incorporates a recently developed electrothermal deicer code, developed at the University of Toledo by William B. Wright. This was accomplished, in essence, by replacing a subroutine in LEWICE, called EBAL, which balanced the energies at the ice surface, with a subroutine called UTICE. UTICE performs this same energy balance, as well as handles all the time-timperature transients below the ice surface, for all of the layers of a composite blade as well as the ice layer itself. This new addition is set up in such a fashion that a user may specify any number of heaters, any heater chordwise length, and any heater gap desired. The heaters may be fired in unison, or they may be cycled with periods independent of each other. The heater intensity may also be varied. In addition, the user may specify any number of layers and thicknesses depthwise into the blade. Thus, the new addition has maximum flexibility in modeling virtually any electrothermal deicer installed into any airfoil. It should be noted that the model simulates both shedding and runback. With the runback capability, it can simulate the anti-icing mode of heater performance, as well as detect icing downstream of the heaters due to runback in unprotected portions of the airfoil. This version of LEWICE can be run in three modes. In mode 1, no conduction heat transfer is modeled (which would be equivalent to the original version of LEWICE). In mode 2, all heat transfer is considered due to conduction but no heaters are firing. In mode 3, conduction heat transfer where the heaters are engaged is modeled, with subsequent ice shedding. When run in the first mode, there is virtually identical agreement with the original version of LEWICE in the prediction of accreted ice shapes. The code may be run in the second mode to determine the effects of conduction on the ice accretion process.

  7. CICE, The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hunke, Elizabeth; Lipscomb, William; Jones, Philip

    The Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) is the result of an effort to develop a computationally efficient sea ice component for a fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–ice global climate model. It was originally designed to be compatible with the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), an ocean circulation model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use on massively parallel computers. CICE has several interacting components: a vertical thermodynamic model that computes local growth rates of snow and ice due to vertical conductive, radiative and turbulent fluxes, along with snowfall; an elastic-viscous-plastic model of ice dynamics, which predicts the velocity field of themore » ice pack based on a model of the material strength of the ice; an incremental remapping transport model that describes horizontal advection of the areal concentration, ice and snow volume and other state variables; and a ridging parameterization that transfers ice among thickness categories based on energetic balances and rates of strain. It also includes a biogeochemical model that describes evolution of the ice ecosystem. The CICE sea ice model is used for climate research as one component of complex global earth system models that include atmosphere, land, ocean and biogeochemistry components. It is also used for operational sea ice forecasting in the polar regions and in numerical weather prediction models.« less

  8. Analysis of iced wings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cebeci, T.; Chen, H. H.; Kaups, K.; Schimke, S.; Shin, J.

    1992-01-01

    A method for computing ice shapes along the leading edge of a wing and a method for predicting its aerodynamic performance degradation due to icing is described. Ice shapes are computed using an extension of the LEWICE code which was developed for airfoils. The aerodynamic properties of the iced wing are determined with an interactive scheme in which the solutions of the inviscid flow equations are obtained from a panel method and the solutions of the viscous flow equations are obtained from an inverse three-dimensional finite-difference boundary-layer method. A new interaction law is used to couple the inviscid and viscous flow solutions. The application of the LEWICE wing code to the calculation of ice shapes on a MS-317 swept wing shows good agreement with measurements. The interactive boundary-layer method is applied to a tapered ice wing in order to study the effect of icing on the aerodynamic properties of the wing at several angles of attack.

  9. Accurate prediction of personalized olfactory perception from large-scale chemoinformatic features.

    PubMed

    Li, Hongyang; Panwar, Bharat; Omenn, Gilbert S; Guan, Yuanfang

    2018-02-01

    The olfactory stimulus-percept problem has been studied for more than a century, yet it is still hard to precisely predict the odor given the large-scale chemoinformatic features of an odorant molecule. A major challenge is that the perceived qualities vary greatly among individuals due to different genetic and cultural backgrounds. Moreover, the combinatorial interactions between multiple odorant receptors and diverse molecules significantly complicate the olfaction prediction. Many attempts have been made to establish structure-odor relationships for intensity and pleasantness, but no models are available to predict the personalized multi-odor attributes of molecules. In this study, we describe our winning algorithm for predicting individual and population perceptual responses to various odorants in the DREAM Olfaction Prediction Challenge. We find that random forest model consisting of multiple decision trees is well suited to this prediction problem, given the large feature spaces and high variability of perceptual ratings among individuals. Integrating both population and individual perceptions into our model effectively reduces the influence of noise and outliers. By analyzing the importance of each chemical feature, we find that a small set of low- and nondegenerative features is sufficient for accurate prediction. Our random forest model successfully predicts personalized odor attributes of structurally diverse molecules. This model together with the top discriminative features has the potential to extend our understanding of olfactory perception mechanisms and provide an alternative for rational odorant design.

  10. User Manual for the NASA Glenn Ice Accretion Code LEWICE: Version 2.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.

    1999-01-01

    A research project is underway at NASA Glenn to produce a computer code which can accurately predict ice growth under a wide range of meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present a description of the code inputs and outputs from version 2.0 of this code, which is called LEWICE. This version differs from previous releases due to its robustness and its ability to reproduce results accurately for different spacing and time step criteria across computing platform. It also differs in the extensive effort undertaken to compare the results against the database of ice shapes which have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) 1. This report will only describe the features of the code related to the use of the program. The report will not describe the inner working of the code or the physical models used. This information is available in the form of several unpublished documents which will be collectively referred to as a Programmers Manual for LEWICE 2 in this report. These reports are intended as an update/replacement for all previous user manuals of LEWICE. In addition to describing the changes and improvements made for this version, information from previous manuals may be duplicated so that the user will not need to consult previous manuals to use this code.

  11. IceCube: CubeSat 883-GHz Radiometry for Future Ice Cloud Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Dongliang; Esper, Jaime; Ehsan, Negar; Johnson, Thomas; Mast, William; Piepmeier, Jeffery R.; Racette, Paul E.

    2015-01-01

    Ice clouds play a key role in the Earth's radiation budget, mostly through their strong regulation of infrared radiation exchange. Accurate observations of global cloud ice and its distribution have been a challenge from space, and require good instrument sensitivities to both cloud mass and microphysical properties. Despite great advances from recent spaceborne radar and passive sensors, uncertainty of current ice water path (IWP) measurements is still not better than a factor of 2. Submillimeter (submm) wave remote sensing offers great potential for improving cloud ice measurements, with simultaneous retrievals of cloud ice and its microphysical properties. The IceCube project is to enable this cloud ice remote sensing capability in future missions, by raising 874-GHz receiver technology TRL from 5 to 7 in a spaceflight demonstration on 3-U CubeSat in a low Earth orbit (LEO) environment. The NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is partnering with Virginia Diodes Inc (VDI) on the 874-GHz receiver through its Vector Network Analyzer (VNA) extender module product line, to develop an instrument with precision of 0.2 K over 1-second integration and accuracy of 2.0 K or better. IceCube is scheduled to launch to and subsequent release from the International Space Station (ISS) in mid-2016 for nominal operation of 28 plus days. We will present the updated design of the payload and spacecraft systems, as well as the operation concept. We will also show the simulated 874-GHz radiances from the ISS orbits and cloud scattering signals as expected for the IceCube cloud radiometer.

  12. Ice fog and light snow measurements using a high resolution camera system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuhn, Thomas; Gultepe, Ismail

    2016-04-01

    In this presentation, measurements collected by the ice crystal imaging (ICI) probe employed during FRAM (Fog Remote Sensing and Modeling) project for the Winter of 2010-2011 in Yellowknife, NWT, Canada are analysed to study small ice crystal impact on aviation operations. Ice fog, diamond dust, and light snow form during cold weather conditions and they affect aviation operations through visibility and deposition over the surfaces. In addition, these events influence the local heat budget through radiative cooling. Prediction of these hydrometeors using models is difficult because of limited knowledge of the microphysical properties at the small size ranges. These phenomena need to be better represented in forecast and climate models and this can only be done using accurate measurements from ground-based instrumentation. Imaging of ice particles' properties can complement other in-situ measurements being collected routinely. The newly developed ICI probe, aimed at measuring ice fog and light snow particles, is presented here. The ICI probe samples ice particles through a vertical inlet, where a laser beam and photodetector detect ice crystals contained in the flow. The detected particles are then imaged with high optical resolution between 10 to 1000 micron size range. An illuminating LED flash and image capturing for measurements are triggered by the photodetector. The results suggested that the majority of ice particles during the two-month long campaign were small with sizes between 300 μm and 800 μm. During ice fog events, the size distribution measured had a lower mode diameter of 300 μm compared to the overall campaign average with mode at 500 μm. In this presentation, challenges and issues related to small ice crystals are described and their importance for aviation operations and climate change are discussed.

  13. Decadal-scale sensitivity of Northeast Greenland ice flow to errors in surface mass balance using ISSM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlegel, N.-J.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Box, J. E.

    2013-06-01

    The behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is considered a major contributor to sea level changes, is best understood on century and longer time scales. However, on decadal time scales, its response is less predictable due to the difficulty of modeling surface climate, as well as incomplete understanding of the dynamic processes responsible for ice flow. Therefore, it is imperative to understand how modeling advancements, such as increased spatial resolution or more comprehensive ice flow equations, might improve projections of ice sheet response to climatic trends. Here we examine how a finely resolved climate forcing influences a high-resolution ice stream model that considers longitudinal stresses. We simulate ice flow using a two-dimensional Shelfy-Stream Approximation implemented within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and use uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the model to calculate the sensitivity of ice flow within the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to errors in surface mass balance (SMB) forcing. Our results suggest that the model tends to smooth ice velocities even when forced with extreme errors in SMB. Indeed, errors propagate linearly through the model, resulting in discharge uncertainty of 16% or 1.9 Gt/yr. We find that mass flux is most sensitive to local errors but is also affected by errors hundreds of kilometers away; thus, an accurate SMB map of the entire basin is critical for realistic simulation. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses indicate that SMB forcing needs to be provided at a resolution of at least 40 km.

  14. Coupling of Waves, Turbulence and Thermodynamics Across the Marginal Ice Zone

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    under-predict the observed trend of declining sea ice area over the last decade. A potential explanation for this under-prediction is that models...are missing important feedbacks within the ocean- ice system. Results from the proposed research will contribute to improving the upper ocean and sea ...and solar-radiation-driven thermodynamic forcing in the marginal ice zone. Within the MIZ, the ocean- ice - albedo feedback mechanism is coupled to ice

  15. Icing Simulation Research Supporting the Ice-Accretion Testing of Large-Scale Swept-Wing Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yadlin, Yoram; Monnig, Jaime T.; Malone, Adam M.; Paul, Bernard P.

    2018-01-01

    The work summarized in this report is a continuation of NASA's Large-Scale, Swept-Wing Test Articles Fabrication; Research and Test Support for NASA IRT contract (NNC10BA05 -NNC14TA36T) performed by Boeing under the NASA Research and Technology for Aerospace Propulsion Systems (RTAPS) contract. In the study conducted under RTAPS, a series of icing tests in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) have been conducted to characterize ice formations on large-scale swept wings representative of modern commercial transport airplanes. The outcome of that campaign was a large database of ice-accretion geometries that can be used for subsequent aerodynamic evaluation in other experimental facilities and for validation of ice-accretion prediction codes.

  16. A Critical Review for Developing Accurate and Dynamic Predictive Models Using Machine Learning Methods in Medicine and Health Care.

    PubMed

    Alanazi, Hamdan O; Abdullah, Abdul Hanan; Qureshi, Kashif Naseer

    2017-04-01

    Recently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been used widely in medicine and health care sector. In machine learning, the classification or prediction is a major field of AI. Today, the study of existing predictive models based on machine learning methods is extremely active. Doctors need accurate predictions for the outcomes of their patients' diseases. In addition, for accurate predictions, timing is another significant factor that influences treatment decisions. In this paper, existing predictive models in medicine and health care have critically reviewed. Furthermore, the most famous machine learning methods have explained, and the confusion between a statistical approach and machine learning has clarified. A review of related literature reveals that the predictions of existing predictive models differ even when the same dataset is used. Therefore, existing predictive models are essential, and current methods must be improved.

  17. Satellite radar interferometry for monitoring ice sheet motion: application to an antarctic ice stream.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, R M; Engelhardt, H; Kamb, B; Frolich, R M

    1993-12-03

    Satellite radar interferometry (SRI) provides a sensitive means of monitoring the flow velocities and grounding-line positions of ice streams, which are indicators of response of the ice sheets to climatic change or internal instability. The detection limit is about 1.5 millimeters for vertical motions and about 4 millimeters for horizontal motions in the radar beam direction. The grounding line, detected by tidal motions where the ice goes afloat, can be mapped at a resolution of approximately 0.5 kilometer. The SRI velocities and grounding line of the Rutford Ice Stream, Antarctica, agree fairly well with earlier ground-based data. The combined use of SRI and other satellite methods is expected to provide data that will enhance the understanding of ice stream mechanics and help make possible the prediction of ice sheet behavior.

  18. Comparison of NASA Team2 and AES-York Ice Concentration Algorithms Against Operational Ice Charts From the Canadian Ice Service

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shokr, Mohammed; Markus, Thorsten

    2006-01-01

    Ice concentration retrieved from spaceborne passive-microwave observations is a prime input to operational sea-ice-monitoring programs, numerical weather prediction models, and global climate models. Atmospheric Environment Service (AES)- York and the Enhanced National Aeronautics and Space Administration Team (NT2) are two algorithms that calculate ice concentration from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager observations. This paper furnishes a comparison between ice concentrations (total, thin, and thick types) output from NT2 and AES-York algorithms against the corresponding estimates from the operational analysis of Radarsat images in the Canadian Ice Service (CIS). A new data fusion technique, which incorporates the actual sensor's footprint, was developed to facilitate this study. Results have shown that the NT2 and AES-York algorithms underestimate total ice concentration by 18.35% and 9.66% concentration counts on average, with 16.8% and 15.35% standard deviation, respectively. However, the retrieved concentrations of thin and thick ice are in much more discrepancy with the operational CIS estimates when either one of these two types dominates the viewing area. This is more likely to occur when the total ice concentration approaches 100%. If thin and thick ice types coexist in comparable concentrations, the algorithms' estimates agree with CIS'S estimates. In terms of ice concentration retrieval, thin ice is more problematic than thick ice. The concept of using a single tie point to represent a thin ice surface is not realistic and provides the largest error source for retrieval accuracy. While AES-York provides total ice concentration in slightly more agreement with CIS'S estimates, NT2 provides better agreement in retrieving thin and thick ice concentrations.

  19. Decadal-Scale Response of the Antarctic Ice sheet to a Warming Ocean using the POPSICLES Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Cornford, S. L.; Price, S. F.; Ng, E. G.; Collins, W.

    2015-12-01

    We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period from 1990 to 2010. We use the CORE v. 2 interannual forcing data to force the ocean model. Simulations are performed at 0.1o(~5 km) ocean resolution with adaptive ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m to adequately resolve the grounding line dynamics. We discuss the effect of improved ocean mixing and subshelf bathymetry (vs. the standard Bedmap2 bathymetry) on the behavior of the coupled system, comparing time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported in the literature. We also present seasonal variability and decadal melting trends from several Antarctic regions, along with the response of the ice shelves and the consequent dynamic response of the grounded ice sheet.POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program, and the BISICLES ice-sheet model. POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells and the commonly used three-equation boundary layer physics. Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations. BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3d) and realistic configurations.The figure shows the BISICLES-computed vertically-integrated grounded ice velocity field 5 years into a 20-year coupled full-continent Antarctic-Southern-Ocean simulation. Submarine melt rates are painted onto the surface of the floating ice shelves. Grounding lines are shown in green.

  20. The role of sediment supply in esker formation and ice tunnel evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, Matthew J.; Brennand, Tracy A.; Sjogren, Darren B.

    2015-05-01

    Meltwater is an important part of the glacier system as it can directly influence ice sheet dynamics. Although it is important that ice sheet models incorporate accurate information about subglacial meltwater processes, the relative inaccessibility of contemporary ice sheet beds makes direct investigation challenging. Former ice sheet beds contain a wealth of meltwater landforms such as eskers that, if accurately interpreted, can provide detailed insight into the hydrology of former ice sheets. Eskers are the casts of ice-walled channels and are a common landform within the footprint of the last Laurentide and Cordilleran Ice Sheets. In south-western Alberta, esker distribution suggests that both water and sediment supply may have been important controls; the longest esker ridge segments are located within meltwater valleys partially filled by glaciofluvial sediments, whereas the shortest esker ridge segments are located in areas dominated by clast-poor till. Through detailed esker ridge planform and crest-type mapping, and near surface geophysics we reveal morpho-sedimentary relationships that suggest esker sedimentation was dynamic, but that esker distribution and architecture were primarily governed by sediment supply. Through comparison of these data with data from eskers elsewhere, we suggest three formative scenarios: 1) where sediment supply and flow powers were high, coarse sediment loads result in rapid deposition, and rates of thermo-mechanical ice tunnel growth is exceeded by the rate of ice tunnel closure due to sediment infilling. High sedimentation rates reduce ice tunnel cross-sectional area, cause an increase in meltwater flow velocity and force ice tunnel growth. Thus, ice tunnel growth is fastest where sedimentation rate is highest; this positive feedback results in a non-uniform ice tunnel geometry, and favours macroform development and non-uniform ridge geometry. 2) Where sediment supply is limited, but flow power high, the rate of sedimentation

  1. Force Criterion Prediction of Damage for Carbon/Epoxy Composite Panels Impacted by High Velocity Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhymer, Jennifer D.

    The use of advanced fiber-reinforced polymer matrix composites in load-bearing aircraft structures is increasing, as evident by the various composites-intensive transport aircraft presently under development. A major impact source of concern for these structures is hail ice, which affects design and skin-sizing (skin thickness determination) at various locations of the aircraft. Impacts onto composite structures often cause internal damage that is not visually detectable due to the high strength and resiliency of the composite material (unlike impacts onto metallic structures). This internal damage and its effect on the performance of the structure are of great concern to the aircraft industry. The prediction of damage in composite structures due to SHI impact has been accomplished via experimental work, explicit dynamic nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA) and the definition of design oriented relationships. Experiments established the critical threshold and corresponding analysis provided contact force results not readily measurable in high velocity SHI impact experiments. The design oriented relationships summarize the FEA results and experimental database into contact force estimation curves that can be easily applied for damage prediction. Failure thresholds were established for the experimental conditions (panel thickness ranging from 1.56 to 4.66 mm and ice diameters from 38.1 to 61.0 mm). Additionally, the observations made by high-speed video during the impact event, and ultrasonic C-scan post-impact, showed how the ice failed during impact and the overall shape and location of the panel damage. Through analysis, the critical force, the force level where damage occurs above but not below, of a SHI impact onto the panel was found to be dependent only on the target structure. However, the peak force generated during impact was dependent on both the projectile and target. Design-oriented curves were generated allowing the prediction of the allowable

  2. Wave-ice interaction, observed and modelled

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gemmrich, Johannes

    2017-04-01

    The need for wide-spread, up-to-date sea state predictions and observations in the emerging ice-free Arctic will further increase as the region will open up to marine operations. Wave models for arctic regions have to capture the additional wave physics associated with wave-ice interactions, and different prediction schemes have to be tested against observations. Here we present examples of spatial wave field parameters obtained from TerraSAR-X StripMap swaths in the southern Beaufort Sea taken as part of the "Arctic Sea State and Boundary Layer DRI". Fetch evolution of the significant wave height and length in open waters, and dominant wave lengths and the high frequency cut-off of the wave spectrum in ice are readily extracted from the SAR (synthetic aperture radar) data. A surprising result is that wave evolution in off-ice wind conditions is more rapidly than the fetch evolution in off-land cases, suggesting seeding of the wave field within the ice-covered region.

  3. Sea Ice in the NCEP Seasonal Forecast System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, X.; Saha, S.; Grumbine, R. W.; Bailey, D. A.; Carton, J.; Penny, S. G.

    2017-12-01

    Sea ice is known to play a significant role in the global climate system. For a weather or climate forecast system (CFS), it is important that the realistic distribution of sea ice is represented. Sea ice prediction is challenging; sea ice can form or melt, it can move with wind and/or ocean current; sea ice interacts with both the air above and ocean underneath, it influences by, and has impact on the air and ocean conditions. NCEP has developed coupled CFS (version 2, CFSv2) and also carried out CFS reanalysis (CFSR), which includes a coupled model with the NCEP global forecast system, a land model, an ocean model (GFDL MOM4), and a sea ice model. In this work, we present the NCEP coupled model, the CFSv2 sea ice component that includes a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model and a simple "assimilation" scheme, how sea ice has been assimilated in CFSR, the characteristics of the sea ice from CFSR and CFSv2, and the improvements of sea ice needed for future seasonal prediction system, part of the Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS), which is being developed and under testing, including sea ice data assimilation with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Preliminary results from the UGCS testing will also be presented.

  4. Icing Encounter Duration Sensitivity Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Lee, Sam

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a study performed to investigate how aerodynamic performance degradation progresses with time throughout an exposure to icing conditions. It is one of the first documented studies of the effects of ice contamination on aerodynamic performance at various points in time throughout an icing encounter. Both a 1.5 and 6 ft chord, two-dimensional, NACA-23012 airfoils were subjected to icing conditions in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel for varying lengths of time. At the end of each run, lift, drag, and pitching moment measurements were made. Measurements with the 1.5 ft chord model showed that maximum lift and pitching moment degraded more rapidly early in the exposure and degraded more slowly as time progressed. Drag for the 1.5 ft chord model degraded more linearly with time, although drag for very short exposure durations was slightly higher than expected. Only drag measurements were made with the 6 ft chord airfoil. Here, drag for the long exposures was higher than expected. Novel comparison of drag measurements versus an icing scaling parameter, accumulation parameter times collection efficiency was used to compare the data from the two different size model. The comparisons provided a means of assessing the level of fidelity needed for accurate icing simulation.

  5. Depth, ice thickness, and ice-out timing cause divergent hydrologic responses among Arctic lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Welker, Jeffery A.

    2015-01-01

    Lakes are prevalent in the Arctic and thus play a key role in regional hydrology. Since many Arctic lakes are shallow and ice grows thick (historically 2-m or greater), seasonal ice commonly freezes to the lake bed (bedfast ice) by winter's end. Bedfast ice fundamentally alters lake energy balance and melt-out processes compared to deeper lakes that exceed the maximum ice thickness (floating ice) and maintain perennial liquid water below floating ice. Our analysis of lakes in northern Alaska indicated that ice-out of bedfast ice lakes occurred on average 17 days earlier (22-June) than ice-out on adjacent floating ice lakes (9-July). Earlier ice-free conditions in bedfast ice lakes caused higher open-water evaporation, 28% on average, relative to floating ice lakes and this divergence increased in lakes closer to the coast and in cooler summers. Water isotopes (18O and 2H) indicated similar differences in evaporation between these lake types. Our analysis suggests that ice regimes created by the combination of lake depth relative to ice thickness and associated ice-out timing currently cause a strong hydrologic divergence among Arctic lakes. Thus understanding the distribution and dynamics of lakes by ice regime is essential for predicting regional hydrology. An observed regime shift in lakes to floating ice conditions due to thinner ice growth may initially offset lake drying because of lower evaporative loss from this lake type. This potential negative feedback caused by winter processes occurs in spite of an overall projected increase in evapotranspiration as the Arctic climate warms.

  6. Gas permeability of ice-templated, unidirectional porous ceramics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seuba, Jordi; Deville, Sylvain; Guizard, Christian; Stevenson, Adam J.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the gas flow behavior of unidirectional porous ceramics processed by ice-templating. The pore volume ranged between 54% and 72% and pore size between 2.9 ?m and 19.1 ?m. The maximum permeability (?? m?) was measured in samples with the highest total pore volume (72%) and pore size (19.1 ?m). However, we demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a similar permeability (?? m?) at 54% pore volume by modification of the pore shape. These results were compared with those reported and measured for isotropic porous materials processed by conventional techniques. In unidirectional porous materials tortuosity (?) is mainly controlled by pore size, unlike in isotropic porous structures where ? is linked to pore volume. Furthermore, we assessed the applicability of Ergun and capillary model in the prediction of permeability and we found that the capillary model accurately describes the gas flow behavior of unidirectional porous materials. Finally, we combined the permeability data obtained here with strength data for these materials to establish links between strength and permeability of ice-templated materials.

  7. Determination of ice water path in ice-over-water cloud systems using combined MODIS and AMSR-E measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Jianping; Minnis, Patrick; Lin, Bing; Yi, Yuhong; Fan, T.-F.; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Ayers, J. K.

    2006-11-01

    To provide more accurate ice cloud microphysical properties, the multi-layered cloud retrieval system (MCRS) is used to retrieve ice water path (IWP) in ice-over-water cloud systems globally over oceans using combined instrument data from Aqua. The liquid water path (LWP) of lower-layer water clouds is estimated from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) measurements. The properties of the upper-level ice clouds are then derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements by matching simulated radiances from a two-cloud-layer radiative transfer model. The results show that the MCRS can significantly improve the accuracy and reduce the over-estimation of optical depth and IWP retrievals for ice-over-water cloud systems. The mean daytime ice cloud optical depth and IWP for overlapped ice-over-water clouds over oceans from Aqua are 7.6 and 146.4 gm-2, respectively, down from the initial single-layer retrievals of 17.3 and 322.3 gm-2. The mean IWP for actual single-layer clouds is 128.2 gm-2.

  8. Detecting Near-Surface Ice Formation Over Time Using the Kennaugh Elements Approach From TerraSAR-X

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandes, L.

    2016-12-01

    The summer melting has increased substantially at higher elevations on the Canadian Arctic ice caps. The resulting meltwater percolates into the upper layers of snow and firn and then refreeze, building massive ice bodies. It seems likely that these within-firn ice bodies now limit meltwater penetration into the firn and may be creating a feedback whereby the fraction of melt that runs off to the ocean is increasing. Although changes in firn structure as presence of ice layers and ice bodies are well documented over the Devon ice cap, the firm has shown that it exerts a crucial role to predict more accurately the contribution of small ice caps to the sea level rise. However it is still challenging to assess the extent of these features within the shallow subsurface using ice cores and GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) data collected along a limited number of linear transects. Studying changes in the distribution of ice bodies' formation over time has the potential to provide information about how the growth of ice bodies in the firn is affecting the pattern of water flow in the firn layer. The objective is investigate the potential of Kennaugh Elements (KE) derived from x-band SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) for mapping the distribution and growth of large ice bodies within the firn and the evolution of their distribution over time. The evaluation of this method could reveal a new approach suitable for other glacierized regions that would reduce the costs and amount of field work for studying such properties.

  9. Ensemble predictive model for more accurate soil organic carbon spectroscopic estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vašát, Radim; Kodešová, Radka; Borůvka, Luboš

    2017-07-01

    A myriad of signal pre-processing strategies and multivariate calibration techniques has been explored in attempt to improve the spectroscopic prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) over the last few decades. Therefore, to come up with a novel, more powerful, and accurate predictive approach to beat the rank becomes a challenging task. However, there may be a way, so that combine several individual predictions into a single final one (according to ensemble learning theory). As this approach performs best when combining in nature different predictive algorithms that are calibrated with structurally different predictor variables, we tested predictors of two different kinds: 1) reflectance values (or transforms) at each wavelength and 2) absorption feature parameters. Consequently we applied four different calibration techniques, two per each type of predictors: a) partial least squares regression and support vector machines for type 1, and b) multiple linear regression and random forest for type 2. The weights to be assigned to individual predictions within the ensemble model (constructed as a weighted average) were determined by an automated procedure that ensured the best solution among all possible was selected. The approach was tested at soil samples taken from surface horizon of four sites differing in the prevailing soil units. By employing the ensemble predictive model the prediction accuracy of SOC improved at all four sites. The coefficient of determination in cross-validation (R2cv) increased from 0.849, 0.611, 0.811 and 0.644 (the best individual predictions) to 0.864, 0.650, 0.824 and 0.698 for Site 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Generally, the ensemble model affected the final prediction so that the maximal deviations of predicted vs. observed values of the individual predictions were reduced, and thus the correlation cloud became thinner as desired.

  10. GIA Modeling with 3D Rheology and Recent Ice Thickness Changes in Polar Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Der Wal, W.; Wu, P. P.

    2012-12-01

    Models for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) mainly focus on the response of the solid Earth to ice thickness changes on the scale of thousands of years. However, some of the fastest vertical movement in former glaciated regions is due to changes in ice thickness that occurred within the last 1,000 years. Similar studies for the polar regions are limited, possibly due to a lack of knowledge on past ice sheet thicknesses there. Still, predictions of uplift rate and mass change due to recent ice thickness changes need to improve in order to provide accurate estimates of current mass loss. In order to obtain a measurable response to variations in ice thickness in the last 1,000 years, viscosity in the lithosphere or top of the upper mantle needs to be lower than the mantle viscosity values in conventional GIA models. In the absence of reliable models for recent ice thickness changes we aim to bracket the predicted uplift rates and gravity rates for such changes by assuming simplified past ice growth and melt patterns. Instead of adding a low-viscous layer in the mantle a priori, creep parameters are based on information from experimental constraints, seismology and heatflow measurements. Thus the model includes viscosity varying in space and time. The simulations are performed on a finite element model of a spherical, self-gravitating, incompressible Earth using the commercial software Abaqus. 3D composite rheology is implemented based on temperature fields from heatflow measurements or seismic velocity anomalies. The lithospheric thickness does not need to be specified as the effective elastic thickness is determined by the local effective viscosity. ICE-5G is used as ice loading history while ice changes during and around the Little Ice Age in Greenland are assumed to take place near the coast. A 3D composite rheology has been shown to match historic sea levels well, but uplift rates are somewhat underestimated. With the GIA models that best match uplift rates in

  11. Spring snow conditions on Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard, during the Norwegian Young Sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallet, Jean-Charles; Merkouriadi, Ioanna; Liston, Glen E.; Polashenski, Chris; Hudson, Stephen; Rösel, Anja; Gerland, Sebastian

    2017-10-01

    Snow is crucial over sea ice due to its conflicting role in reflecting the incoming solar energy and reducing the heat transfer so that its temporal and spatial variability are important to estimate. During the Norwegian Young Sea ICE (N-ICE2015) campaign, snow physical properties and variability were examined, and results from April until mid-June 2015 are presented here. Overall, the snow thickness was about 20 cm higher than the climatology for second-year ice, with an average of 55 ± 27 cm and 32 ± 20 cm on first-year ice. The average density was 350-400 kg m-3 in spring, with higher values in June due to melting. Due to flooding in March, larger variability in snow water equivalent was observed. However, the snow structure was quite homogeneous in spring due to warmer weather and lower amount of storms passing over the field camp. The snow was mostly consisted of wind slab, faceted, and depth hoar type crystals with occasional fresh snow. These observations highlight the more dynamic character of evolution of snow properties over sea ice compared to previous observations, due to more variable sea ice and weather conditions in this area. The snowpack was isothermal as early as 10 June with the first onset of melt clearly identified in early June. Based on our observations, we estimate than snow could be accurately represented by a three to four layers modeling approach, in order to better consider the high variability of snow thickness and density together with the rapid metamorphose of the snow in springtime.

  12. An optical model for the microwave properties of sea ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gloersen, P.; Larabee, J. K.

    1981-01-01

    The complex refractive index of sea ice is modeled and used to predict the microwave signatures of various sea ice types. Results are shown to correspond well with the observed values of the complex index inferred from dielectic constant and dielectric loss measurements performed in the field, and with observed microwave signatures of sea ice. The success of this modeling procedure vis a vis modeling of the dielectric properties of sea ice constituents used earlier by several others is explained. Multiple layer radiative transfer calculations are used to predict the microwave properties of first-year sea ice with and without snow, and multiyear sea ice.

  13. How the Assumed Size Distribution of Dust Minerals Affects the Predicted Ice Forming Nuclei

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perlwitz, Jan P.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; Miller, Ron L.; Knopf, Daniel A.

    2015-01-01

    The formation of ice in clouds depends on the availability of ice forming nuclei (IFN). Dust aerosol particles are considered the most important source of IFN at a global scale. Recent laboratory studies have demonstrated that the mineral feldspar provides the most efficient dust IFN for immersion freezing and together with kaolinite for deposition ice nucleation, and that the phyllosilicates illite and montmorillonite (a member of the smectite group) are of secondary importance.A few studies have applied global models that simulate mineral specific dust to predict the number and geographical distribution of IFN. These studies have been based on the simple assumption that the mineral composition of soil as provided in data sets from the literature translates directly into the mineral composition of the dust aerosols. However, these tables are based on measurements of wet-sieved soil where dust aggregates are destroyed to a large degree. In consequence, the size distribution of dust is shifted to smaller sizes, and phyllosilicates like illite, kaolinite, and smectite are only found in the size range 2 m. In contrast, in measurements of the mineral composition of dust aerosols, the largest mass fraction of these phyllosilicates is found in the size range 2 m as part of dust aggregates. Conversely, the mass fraction of feldspar is smaller in this size range, varying with the geographical location. This may have a significant effect on the predicted IFN number and its geographical distribution.An improved mineral specific dust aerosol module has been recently implemented in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2. The dust module takes into consideration the disaggregated state of wet-sieved soil, on which the tables of soil mineral fractions are based. To simulate the atmospheric cycle of the minerals, the mass size distribution of each mineral in aggregates that are emitted from undispersed parent soil is reconstructed. In the current study, we test the null

  14. Sea ice algae chlorophyll a concentrations derived from under-ice spectral radiation profiling platforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, Benjamin A.; Katlein, Christian; Nicolaus, Marcel; Peeken, Ilka; Flores, Hauke

    2016-12-01

    Multiscale sea ice algae observations are fundamentally important for projecting changes to sea ice ecosystems, as the physical environment continues to change. In this study, we developed upon previously established methodologies for deriving sea ice-algal chlorophyll a concentrations (chl a) from spectral radiation measurements, and applied these to larger-scale spectral surveys. We conducted four different under-ice spectral measurements: irradiance, radiance, transmittance, and transflectance, and applied three statistical approaches: Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF), Normalized Difference Indices (NDI), and multi-NDI. We developed models based on ice core chl a and coincident spectral irradiance/transmittance (N = 49) and radiance/transflectance (N = 50) measurements conducted during two cruises to the central Arctic Ocean in 2011 and 2012. These reference models were ranked based on two criteria: mean robustness R2 and true prediction error estimates. For estimating the biomass of a large-scale data set, the EOF approach performed better than the NDI, due to its ability to account for the high variability of environmental properties experienced over large areas. Based on robustness and true prediction error, the three most reliable models, EOF-transmittance, EOF-transflectance, and NDI-transmittance, were applied to two remotely operated vehicle (ROV) and two Surface and Under-Ice Trawl (SUIT) spectral radiation surveys. In these larger-scale chl a estimates, EOF-transmittance showed the best fit to ice core chl a. Application of our most reliable model, EOF-transmittance, to an 85 m horizontal ROV transect revealed large differences compared to published biomass estimates from the same site with important implications for projections of Arctic-wide ice-algal biomass and primary production.

  15. Sea-ice deformation in a coupled ocean-sea-ice model and in satellite remote sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spreen, Gunnar; Kwok, Ron; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Nguyen, An T.

    2017-07-01

    A realistic representation of sea-ice deformation in models is important for accurate simulation of the sea-ice mass balance. Simulated sea-ice deformation from numerical simulations with 4.5, 9, and 18 km horizontal grid spacing and a viscous-plastic (VP) sea-ice rheology are compared with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite observations (RGPS, RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System) for the time period 1996-2008. All three simulations can reproduce the large-scale ice deformation patterns, but small-scale sea-ice deformations and linear kinematic features (LKFs) are not adequately reproduced. The mean sea-ice total deformation rate is about 40 % lower in all model solutions than in the satellite observations, especially in the seasonal sea-ice zone. A decrease in model grid spacing, however, produces a higher density and more localized ice deformation features. The 4.5 km simulation produces some linear kinematic features, but not with the right frequency. The dependence on length scale and probability density functions (PDFs) of absolute divergence and shear for all three model solutions show a power-law scaling behavior similar to RGPS observations, contrary to what was found in some previous studies. Overall, the 4.5 km simulation produces the most realistic divergence, vorticity, and shear when compared with RGPS data. This study provides an evaluation of high and coarse-resolution viscous-plastic sea-ice simulations based on spatial distribution, time series, and power-law scaling metrics.

  16. Advanced instrumentation for aircraft icing research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bachalo, W.; Smith, J.; Rudoff, R.

    1990-01-01

    A compact and rugged probe based on the phase Doppler method was evaluated as a means for characterizing icing clouds using airborne platforms and for advancing aircraft icing research in large scale wind tunnels. The Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer (PDPA) upon which the new probe was based is now widely recognized as an accurate method for the complete characterization of sprays. The prototype fiber optic-based probe was evaluated in simulated aircraft icing clouds and found to have the qualities essential to providing information that will advance aircraft icing research. Measurement comparisons of the size and velocity distributions made with the standard PDPA and the fiber optic probe were in excellent agreement as were the measurements of number density and liquid water content. Preliminary testing in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) produced reasonable results but revealed some problems with vibration and signal quality at high speeds. The cause of these problems were identified and design changes were proposed to eliminate the shortcomings of the probe.

  17. Towards First Principles-Based Prediction of Highly Accurate Electrochemical Pourbaix Diagrams

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zeng, Zhenhua; Chan, Maria K. Y.; Zhao, Zhi-Jian

    2015-08-13

    Electrochemical potential/pH (Pourbaix) diagrams underpin many aqueous electrochemical processes and are central to the identification of stable phases of metals for processes ranging from electrocatalysis to corrosion. Even though standard DFT calculations are potentially powerful tools for the prediction of such diagrams, inherent errors in the description of transition metal (hydroxy)oxides, together with neglect of van der Waals interactions, have limited the reliability of such predictions for even the simplest pure metal bulk compounds, and corresponding predictions for more complex alloy or surface structures are even more challenging. In the present work, through synergistic use of a Hubbard U correction,more » a state-of-the-art dispersion correction, and a water-based bulk reference state for the calculations, these errors are systematically corrected. The approach describes the weak binding that occurs between hydroxyl-containing functional groups in certain compounds in Pourbaix diagrams, corrects for self-interaction errors in transition metal compounds, and reduces residual errors on oxygen atoms by preserving a consistent oxidation state between the reference state, water, and the relevant bulk phases. The strong performance is illustrated on a series of bulk transition metal (Mn, Fe, Co and Ni) hydroxides, oxyhydroxides, binary, and ternary oxides, where the corresponding thermodynamics of redox and (de)hydration are described with standard errors of 0.04 eV per (reaction) formula unit. The approach further preserves accurate descriptions of the overall thermodynamics of electrochemically-relevant bulk reactions, such as water formation, which is an essential condition for facilitating accurate analysis of reaction energies for electrochemical processes on surfaces. The overall generality and transferability of the scheme suggests that it may find useful application in the construction of a broad array of electrochemical phase diagrams, including

  18. Record low lake ice thickness and bedfast ice extent on Alaska's Arctic Coastal Plain in 2017 exemplify the value of monitoring freshwater ice to understand sea-ice forcing and predict permafrost dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arp, C. D.; Alexeev, V. A.; Bondurant, A. C.; Creighton, A.; Engram, M. J.; Jones, B. M.; Parsekian, A.

    2017-12-01

    The winter of 2016/2017 was exceptionally warm and snowy along the coast of Arctic Alaska partly due to low fall sea ice extent. Based on several decades of field measurements, we documented a new record low maximum ice thickness (MIT) for lakes on the Barrow Peninsula, averaging 1.2 m. This is in comparison to a long-term average MIT of 1.7 m stretching back to 1962 with a maximum of 2.1 m in 1970 and previous minimum of 1.3 m in 2014. The relevance of thinner lake ice in arctic coastal lowlands, where thermokarst lakes cover greater than 20% of the land area, is that permafrost below lakes with bedfast ice is typically preserved. Lakes deeper than the MIT warm and thaw sub-lake permafrost forming taliks. Remote sensing analysis using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is a valuable tool for scaling the field observations of MIT to the entire freshwater landscape to map bedfast ice. A new, long-term time-series of late winter multi-platform SAR from 1992 to 2016 shows a large dynamic range of bedfast ice extent, 29% of lake area or 6% of the total land area over this period, and adding 2017 to this record is expected to extend this range further. Empirical models of lake mean annual bed temperature suggest that permafrost begins to thaw at depths less than 60% of MIT. Based on this information and knowledge of average lake ice growth trajectories, we suggest that future SAR analysis of lake ice should focus on mid-winter (January) to evaluate the extent of bedfast ice and corresponding zones of sub-lake permafrost thaw. Tracking changes in these areas from year to year in mid-winter may provide the best landscape-scale evaluation of changing permafrost conditions in lake-rich arctic lowlands. Because observed changes in MIT coupled with mid-winter bedfast ice extent provide much information on permafrost stability, we suggest that these measurements can serve as Essential Climate Variables (EVCs) to indicate past and future changes in lake-rich arctic regions. The

  19. Ice crystallization in ultrafine water-salt aerosols: nucleation, ice-solution equilibrium, and internal structure.

    PubMed

    Hudait, Arpa; Molinero, Valeria

    2014-06-04

    Atmospheric aerosols have a strong influence on Earth's climate. Elucidating the physical state and internal structure of atmospheric aqueous aerosols is essential to predict their gas and water uptake, and the locus and rate of atmospherically important heterogeneous reactions. Ultrafine aerosols with sizes between 3 and 15 nm have been detected in large numbers in the troposphere and tropopause. Nanoscopic aerosols arising from bubble bursting of natural and artificial seawater have been identified in laboratory and field experiments. The internal structure and phase state of these aerosols, however, cannot yet be determined in experiments. Here we use molecular simulations to investigate the phase behavior and internal structure of liquid, vitrified, and crystallized water-salt ultrafine aerosols with radii from 2.5 to 9.5 nm and with up to 10% moles of ions. We find that both ice crystallization and vitrification of the nanodroplets lead to demixing of pure water from the solutions. Vitrification of aqueous nanodroplets yields nanodomains of pure low-density amorphous ice in coexistence with vitrified solute rich aqueous glass. The melting temperature of ice in the aerosols decreases monotonically with an increase of solute fraction and decrease of radius. The simulations reveal that nucleation of ice occurs homogeneously at the subsurface of the water-salt nanoparticles. Subsequent ice growth yields phase-segregated, internally mixed, aerosols with two phases in equilibrium: a concentrated water-salt amorphous mixture and a spherical cap-like ice nanophase. The surface of the crystallized aerosols is heterogeneous, with ice and solution exposed to the vapor. Free energy calculations indicate that as the concentration of salt in the particles, the advance of the crystallization, or the size of the particles increase, the stability of the spherical cap structure increases with respect to the alternative structure in which a core of ice is fully surrounded by

  20. Balance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    For several decades, measurements of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet showed it to be retreating rapidly. But new data derived from satellite-borne radar sensors show the ice sheet to be growing. Changing Antarctic ice sheets remains an area of high scientific interest, particularly in light of recent global warming concerns. These new findings are significant because scientists estimate that sea level would rise 5-6 meters (16-20 feet) if the ice sheet collapsed into the sea. Do these new measurements signal the end of the ice sheet's 10,000-year retreat? Or, are these new satellite data simply much more accurate than the sparse ice core and surface measurements that produced the previous estimates? Another possibility is that the ice accumulation may simply indicate that the ice sheet naturally expands and retreats in regular cycles. Cryologists will grapple with these questions, and many others, as they examine the new data. The image above depicts the region of West Antarctica where scientists measured ice speed. The fast-moving central ice streams are shown in red. Slower tributaries feeding the ice streams are shown in blue. Green areas depict slow-moving, stable areas. Thick black lines depict the areas that collect snowfall to feed their respective ice streams. Reference: Ian Joughin and Slawek Tulaczyk Science Jan 18 2002: 476-480. Image courtesy RADARSAT Antarctic Mapping Project

  1. Water, ice and mud: Lahars and lahar hazards at ice- and snow-clad volcanoes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waythomas, Christopher F.

    2014-01-01

    Large-volume lahars are significant hazards at ice and snow covered volcanoes. Hot eruptive products produced during explosive eruptions can generate a substantial volume of melt water that quickly evolves into highly mobile flows of ice, sediment and water. At present it is difficult to predict the size of lahars that can form at ice and snow covered volcanoes due to their complex flow character and behaviour. However, advances in experiments and numerical approaches are producing new conceptual models and new methods for hazard assessment. Eruption triggered lahars that are ice-dominated leave behind thin, almost unrecognizable sedimentary deposits, making them likely to be under-represented in the geological record.

  2. Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals.

    PubMed

    Doré, Bruce P; Meksin, Robert; Mather, Mara; Hirst, William; Ochsner, Kevin N

    2016-06-01

    In the aftermath of a national tragedy, important decisions are predicated on judgments of the emotional significance of the tragedy in the present and future. Research in affective forecasting has largely focused on ways in which people fail to make accurate predictions about the nature and duration of feelings experienced in the aftermath of an event. Here we ask a related but understudied question: can people forecast how they will feel in the future about a tragic event that has already occurred? We found that people were strikingly accurate when predicting how they would feel about the September 11 attacks over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals. Although people slightly under- or overestimated their future feelings at times, they nonetheless showed high accuracy in forecasting (a) the overall intensity of their future negative emotion, and (b) the relative degree of different types of negative emotion (i.e., sadness, fear, or anger). Using a path model, we found that the relationship between forecasted and actual future emotion was partially mediated by current emotion and remembered emotion. These results extend theories of affective forecasting by showing that emotional responses to an event of ongoing national significance can be predicted with high accuracy, and by identifying current and remembered feelings as independent sources of this accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals

    PubMed Central

    Doré, B.P.; Meksin, R.; Mather, M.; Hirst, W.; Ochsner, K.N

    2016-01-01

    In the aftermath of a national tragedy, important decisions are predicated on judgments of the emotional significance of the tragedy in the present and future. Research in affective forecasting has largely focused on ways in which people fail to make accurate predictions about the nature and duration of feelings experienced in the aftermath of an event. Here we ask a related but understudied question: can people forecast how they will feel in the future about a tragic event that has already occurred? We found that people were strikingly accurate when predicting how they would feel about the September 11 attacks over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals. Although people slightly under- or overestimated their future feelings at times, they nonetheless showed high accuracy in forecasting 1) the overall intensity of their future negative emotion, and 2) the relative degree of different types of negative emotion (i.e., sadness, fear, or anger). Using a path model, we found that the relationship between forecasted and actual future emotion was partially mediated by current emotion and remembered emotion. These results extend theories of affective forecasting by showing that emotional responses to an event of ongoing national significance can be predicted with high accuracy, and by identifying current and remembered feelings as independent sources of this accuracy. PMID:27100309

  4. Cosmic ray spectrum, composition, and anisotropy measured with IceCube

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamburro, Alessio

    2014-04-01

    Analysis of cosmic ray surface data collected with the IceTop array of Cherenkov detectors at the South Pole provides an accurate measurement of the cosmic ray spectrum and its features in the "knee" region up to energies of about 1 EeV. IceTop is part of the IceCube Observatory that includes a deep-ice cubic kilometer detector that registers signals of penetrating muons and other particles. Surface and in-ice signals detected in coincidence provide clear insights into the nuclear composition of cosmic rays. IceCube already measured an increase of the average primary mass as a function of energy. We present preliminary results on both IceTop-only and coincident events analysis. Furthermore, we review the recent measurement of the cosmic ray anisotropy with IceCube.

  5. IceVal DatAssistant: An Interactive, Automated Icing Data Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levinson, Laurie H.; Wright, William B.

    2008-01-01

    As with any scientific endeavor, the foundation of icing research at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is the data acquired during experimental testing. In the case of the GRC Icing Branch, an important part of this data consists of ice tracings taken following tests carried out in the GRC Icing Research Tunnel (IRT), as well as the associated operational and environmental conditions documented during these tests. Over the years, the large number of experimental runs completed has served to emphasize the need for a consistent strategy for managing this data. To address the situation, the Icing Branch has recently elected to implement the IceVal DatAssistant automated data management system. With the release of this system, all publicly available IRT-generated experimental ice shapes with complete and verifiable conditions have now been compiled into one electronically-searchable database. Simulation software results for the equivalent conditions, generated using the latest version of the LEWICE ice shape prediction code, are likewise included and are linked to the corresponding experimental runs. In addition to this comprehensive database, the IceVal system also includes a graphically-oriented database access utility, which provides reliable and easy access to all data contained in the database. In this paper, the issues surrounding historical icing data management practices are discussed, as well as the anticipated benefits to be achieved as a result of migrating to the new system. A detailed description of the software system features and database content is also provided; and, finally, known issues and plans for future work are presented.

  6. IceVal DatAssistant: An Interactive, Automated Icing Data Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levinson, Laurie H.; Wright, William B.

    2008-01-01

    As with any scientific endeavor, the foundation of icing research at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is the data acquired during experimental testing. In the case of the GRC Icing Branch, an important part of this data consists of ice tracings taken following tests carried out in the GRC Icing Research Tunnel (IRT), as well as the associated operational and environmental conditions during those tests. Over the years, the large number of experimental runs completed has served to emphasize the need for a consistent strategy to manage the resulting data. To address this situation, the Icing Branch has recently elected to implement the IceVal DatAssistant automated data management system. With the release of this system, all publicly available IRT-generated experimental ice shapes with complete and verifiable conditions have now been compiled into one electronically-searchable database; and simulation software results for the equivalent conditions, generated using the latest version of the LEWICE ice shape prediction code, are likewise included and linked to the corresponding experimental runs. In addition to this comprehensive database, the IceVal system also includes a graphically-oriented database access utility, which provides reliable and easy access to all data contained in the database. In this paper, the issues surrounding historical icing data management practices are discussed, as well as the anticipated benefits to be achieved as a result of migrating to the new system. A detailed description of the software system features and database content is also provided; and, finally, known issues and plans for future work are presented.

  7. Large Eddy Simulation of Heat Entrainment Under Arctic Sea Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramudu, Eshwan; Gelderloos, Renske; Yang, Di; Meneveau, Charles; Gnanadesikan, Anand

    2018-01-01

    Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly in recent decades. The faster than projected retreat suggests that free-running large-scale climate models may not be accurately representing some key processes. The small-scale turbulent entrainment of heat from the mixed layer could be one such process. To better understand this mechanism, we model the Arctic Ocean's Canada Basin, which is characterized by a perennial anomalously warm Pacific Summer Water (PSW) layer residing at the base of the mixed layer and a summertime Near-Surface Temperature Maximum (NSTM) within the mixed layer trapping heat from solar radiation. We use large eddy simulation (LES) to investigate heat entrainment for different ice-drift velocities and different initial temperature profiles. The value of LES is that the resolved turbulent fluxes are greater than the subgrid-scale fluxes for most of our parameter space. The results show that the presence of the NSTM enhances heat entrainment from the mixed layer. Additionally there is no PSW heat entrained under the parameter space considered. We propose a scaling law for the ocean-to-ice heat flux which depends on the initial temperature anomaly in the NSTM layer and the ice-drift velocity. A case study of "The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012" gives a turbulent heat flux from the mixed layer that is approximately 70% of the total ocean-to-ice heat flux estimated from the PIOMAS model often used for short-term predictions. Present results highlight the need for large-scale climate models to account for the NSTM layer.

  8. Radiostratigraphy and age structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    PubMed Central

    MacGregor, Joseph A; Fahnestock, Mark A; Catania, Ginny A; Paden, John D; Prasad Gogineni, S; Young, S Keith; Rybarski, Susan C; Mabrey, Alexandria N; Wagman, Benjamin M; Morlighem, Mathieu

    2015-01-01

    Several decades of ice-penetrating radar surveys of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have observed numerous widespread internal reflections. Analysis of this radiostratigraphy has produced valuable insights into ice sheet dynamics and motivates additional mapping of these reflections. Here we present a comprehensive deep radiostratigraphy of the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne deep ice-penetrating radar data collected over Greenland by The University of Kansas between 1993 and 2013. To map this radiostratigraphy efficiently, we developed new techniques for predicting reflection slope from the phase recorded by coherent radars. When integrated along track, these slope fields predict the radiostratigraphy and simplify semiautomatic reflection tracing. Core-intersecting reflections were dated using synchronized depth-age relationships for six deep ice cores. Additional reflections were dated by matching reflections between transects and by extending reflection-inferred depth-age relationships using the local effective vertical strain rate. The oldest reflections, dating to the Eemian period, are found mostly in the northern part of the ice sheet. Within the onset regions of several fast-flowing outlet glaciers and ice streams, reflections typically do not conform to the bed topography. Disrupted radiostratigraphy is also observed in a region north of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream that is not presently flowing rapidly. Dated reflections are used to generate a gridded age volume for most of the ice sheet and also to determine the depths of key climate transitions that were not observed directly. This radiostratigraphy provides a new constraint on the dynamics and history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Key Points Phase information predicts reflection slope and simplifies reflection tracing Reflections can be dated away from ice cores using a simple ice flow model Radiostratigraphy is often disrupted near the onset of fast ice flow PMID:26213664

  9. Forecasting and modelling ice layer formation on the snowpack due to freezing precipitations in the Pyrenees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quéno, Louis; Vionnet, Vincent; Cabot, Frédéric; Vrécourt, Dominique; Dombrowski-Etchevers, Ingrid

    2017-04-01

    In the Pyrenees, freezing precipitations in altitude occur at least once per winter, leading to the formation of a pure ice layer on the surface of the snowpack. It may lead to accidents and fatalities among mountaineers and skiers, with sometimes a higher human toll than avalanches. Such events are not predicted by the current operational systems for snow and avalanche hazard forecasting. A crowd-sourced database of surface ice layer occurrences is first built up, using reports from Internet mountaineering and ski-touring communities, to mitigate the lack of observations from conventional observation networks. A simple diagnostic of freezing precipitation is then developed, based on the cloud water content and screen temperature forecast by the Numerical Weather Prediction model AROME, operating at 2.5-km resolution. The performance of this diagnostic is assessed for the event of 5-6 January 2012, with a good representation of altitudinal and spatial distributions of the ice layer. An evaluation of the diagnostic for major events over five winters gives good skills of detection compared to the occurrences reported in the observation database. A new modelling of ice formation on the surface of the snowpack due to impinging supercooled water is added to the detailed snowpack model Crocus. It is combined to the atmospheric diagnostic of freezing precipitations and resulting snowpack simulations over a winter season capture well the formation of the main ice layers. Their influence on the snowpack stratigraphy is also realistically simulated. These simple methods enable to forecast the occurrence of surface ice layer formations with good confidence and to simulate their evolution within the snowpack, even if an accurate estimation of freezing precipitation amounts remains the main challenge.

  10. SmaggIce User Guide. 1.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baez, Marivell; Vickerman, Mary; Choo, Yung

    2000-01-01

    SmaggIce (Surface Modeling And Grid Generation for Iced Airfoils) is one of NASNs aircraft icing research codes developed at the Glenn Research Center. It is a software toolkit used in the process of aerodynamic performance prediction of iced airfoils. It includes tools which complement the 2D grid-based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) process: geometry probing; surface preparation for gridding: smoothing and re-discretization of geometry. Future releases will also include support for all aspects of gridding: domain decomposition; perimeter discretization; grid generation and modification.

  11. Monitoring ice thickness and elastic properties from the measurement of leaky guided waves: A laboratory experiment.

    PubMed

    Moreau, Ludovic; Lachaud, Cédric; Théry, Romain; Predoi, Mihai V; Marsan, David; Larose, Eric; Weiss, Jérôme; Montagnat, Maurine

    2017-11-01

    The decline of Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most spectacular signatures of global warming, and studies converge to show that this decline has been accelerating over the last four decades, with a rate that is not reproduced by climate models. To improve these models, relying on comprehensive and accurate field data is essential. While sea ice extent and concentration are accurately monitored from microwave imagery, an accurate measure of its thickness is still lacking. Moreover, measuring observables related to the mechanical behavior of the ice (such as Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, etc.) could provide better insights in the understanding of sea ice decline, by completing current knowledge so far acquired mostly from radar and sonar data. This paper aims at demonstrating on the laboratory scale that these can all be estimated simultaneously by measuring seismic waves guided in the ice layer. The experiment consisted of leaving a water tank in a cold room in order to grow an ice layer at its surface. While its thickness was increasing, ultrasonic guided waves were generated with a piezoelectric source, and measurements were subsequently inverted to infer the thickness and mechanical properties of the ice with very good accuracy.

  12. Multiyear ice transport and small scale sea ice deformation near the Alaska coast measured by air-deployable Ice Trackers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahoney, A. R.; Kasper, J.; Winsor, P.

    2015-12-01

    Highly complex patterns of ice motion and deformation were captured by fifteen satellite-telemetered GPS buoys (known as Ice Trackers) deployed near Barrow, Alaska, in spring 2015. Two pentagonal clusters of buoys were deployed on pack ice by helicopter in the Beaufort Sea between 20 and 80 km offshore. During deployment, ice motion in the study region was effectively zero, but two days later the buoys captured a rapid transport event in which multiyear ice from the Beaufort Sea was flushed into the Chukchi Sea. During this event, westward ice motion began in the Chukchi Sea and propagated eastward. This created new openings in the ice and led to rapid elongation of the clusters as the westernmost buoys accelerated away from their neighbors to the east. The buoys tracked ice velocities of over 1.5 ms-1, with fastest motion occurring closest to the coast indicating strong current shear. Three days later, ice motion reversed and the two clusters became intermingled, rendering divergence calculations based on the area enclosed by clusters invalid. The data show no detectable difference in velocity between first year and multiyear ice floes, but Lagrangian timeseries of SAR imagery centered on each buoy show that first year ice underwent significant small-scale deformation during the event. The five remaining buoys were deployed by local residents on prominent ridges embedded in the landfast ice within 16 km of Barrow in order to track the fate of such features after they detached from the coast. Break-up of the landfast ice took place over a period of several days and, although the buoys each initially followed a similar eastward trajectory around Point Barrow into the Beaufort Sea, they rapidly dispersed over an area more than 50 km across. With rapid environmental and socio-economic change in the Arctic, understanding the complexity of nearshore ice motion is increasingly important for predict future changes in the ice and the tracking ice-related hazards

  13. High Order Schemes in Bats-R-US for Faster and More Accurate Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Y.; Toth, G.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2014-12-01

    BATS-R-US is a widely used global magnetohydrodynamics model that originally employed second order accurate TVD schemes combined with block based Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) to achieve high resolution in the regions of interest. In the last years we have implemented fifth order accurate finite difference schemes CWENO5 and MP5 for uniform Cartesian grids. Now the high order schemes have been extended to generalized coordinates, including spherical grids and also to the non-uniform AMR grids including dynamic regridding. We present numerical tests that verify the preservation of free-stream solution and high-order accuracy as well as robust oscillation-free behavior near discontinuities. We apply the new high order accurate schemes to both heliospheric and magnetospheric simulations and show that it is robust and can achieve the same accuracy as the second order scheme with much less computational resources. This is especially important for space weather prediction that requires faster than real time code execution.

  14. Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Nowicki, S.

    2014-06-01

    The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45 mm yr-1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

  15. Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Nowicki, S.

    2014-01-01

    The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A~recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is generally losing its mass since the last glacial maximum (LGM). In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that the past loading is relatively less important than future loading on the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years 2100 and 2500 AD, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay approaches roughly 45 mm yr-1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is associated with the flattening of reverse bed, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote the stability to marine portions of the ice sheet in future.

  16. Future Antarctic Bed Topography and Its Implications for Ice Sheet Dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adhikari, Surendra; Ivins, Erik R.; Larour, Eric Y.; Seroussi, Helene L.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nowicki, S.

    2014-01-01

    The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves.We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS.We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45mmyr-1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

  17. Snow Grain Size Retrieval over the Polar Ice Sheets with the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) Observations

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Yuekui; Marshak, Alexander; Han, Mei; Palm, Stephen P.; Harding, David J.

    2018-01-01

    Snow grain size is an important parameter for cryosphere studies. As a proof of concept, this paper presents an approach to retrieve this parameter over Greenland, East and West Antarctica ice sheets from surface reflectances observed with the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) at 1064 nm. Spaceborne lidar observations overcome many of the disadvantages in passive remote sensing, including difficulties in cloud screening and low sun angle limitations; hence tend to provide more accurate and stable retrievals. Results from the GLAS L2A campaign, which began on 25 September and lasted until 19 November, 2003, show that the mode of the grain size distribution over Greenland is the largest (~300 μm) among the three, West Antarctica is the second (~220 μm) and East Antarctica is the smallest (~190 μm). Snow grain sizes are larger over the coastal regions compared to inland the ice sheets. These results are consistent with previous studies. Applying the broadband snow surface albedo parameterization scheme developed by Garder and Sharp (2010) to the retrieved snow grain size, ice sheet surface albedo is also derived. In the future, more accurate retrievals can be achieved with multiple wavelengths lidar observations. PMID:29636591

  18. Snow Grain Size Retrieval over the Polar Ice Sheets with the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, Yuekui; Marshak, Alexander; Han, Mei; Palm, Stephen P.; Harding, David J.

    2016-01-01

    Snow grain size is an important parameter for cryosphere studies. As a proof of concept, this paper presents an approach to retrieve this parameter over Greenland, East and West Antarctica ice sheets from surface reflectances observed with the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) at 1064 nanometers. Spaceborne lidar observations overcome many of the disadvantages in passive remote sensing, including difficulties in cloud screening and low sun angle limitations; hence tend to provide more accurate and stable retrievals. Results from the GLAS L2A campaign, which began on 25 September and lasted until 19 November, 2003, show that the mode of the grain size distribution over Greenland is the largest (approximately 300 microns) among the three, West Antarctica is the second (220 microns) and East Antarctica is the smallest (190 microns). Snow grain sizes are larger over the coastal regions compared to inland the ice sheets. These results are consistent with previous studies. Applying the broadband snow surface albedo parameterization scheme developed by Garder and Sharp (2010) to the retrieved snow grain size, ice sheet surface albedo is also derived. In the future, more accurate retrievals can be achieved with multiple wavelengths lidar observations.

  19. Simulations of Antarctic ice shelves and the Southern Ocean in the POP2x ocean model coupled with the BISICLES ice-sheet model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asay-Davis, Xylar; Martin, Daniel; Price, Stephen; Maltrud, Mathew

    2014-05-01

    We present initial results from Antarctic, ice-ocean coupled simulations using large-scale ocean circulation and ice-sheet evolution models. This presentation focuses on the ocean model, POP2x, which is a modified version of POP, a fully eddying, global-scale ocean model (Smith and Gent, 2002). POP2x allows for circulation beneath ice shelf cavities using the method of partial top cells (Losch, 2008). Boundary layer physics, which control fresh water and salt exchange at the ice-ocean interface, are implemented following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013) and with results from other idealized ice-ocean coupling test cases (e.g., Goldberg et al., 2012). A companion presentation, 'Fully resolved whole-continent Antarctica simulations using the BISICLES AMR ice sheet model coupled with the POP2x Ocean Model', concentrates more on the ice-sheet model, BISICLES (Cornford et al., 2012), which includes a 1st-order accurate momentum balance (L1L2) and uses block structured, adaptive-mesh refinement to more accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. For idealized test cases focused on marine-ice sheet dynamics, BISICLES output compares very favorably relative to simulations based on the full, nonlinear Stokes momentum balance (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013). Here, we present large-scale (Southern Ocean) simulations using POP2x at 0.1 degree resolution with fixed ice shelf geometries, which are used to obtain and validate modeled submarine melt rates against observations. These melt rates are, in turn, used to force evolution of the BISICLES model. An offline-coupling scheme, which we compare with the ice-ocean coupling work of Goldberg et al. (2012), is then used to

  20. Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Evolution using Koopman Mode Decomposition Techniques

    DTIC Science & Technology

    Koopman Mode Analysis was newly applied to southern hemisphere sea ice concentration data. The resulting Koopman modes from analysis of both the...southern and northern hemisphere sea ice concentration data shows geographical regions where sea ice coverage has decreased over multiyear time scales.

  1. An experimental and theoretical study of the ice accretion process during artificial and natural icing conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirby, Mark S.; Hansman, R. John

    1988-01-01

    Real-time measurements of ice growth during artificial and natural icing conditions were conducted using an ultrasonic pulse-echo technique. This technique allows ice thickness to be measured with an accuracy of + or - 0.5 mm; in addition, the ultrasonic signal characteristics may be used to detect the presence of liquid on the ice surface and hence discern wet and dry ice growth behavior. Ice growth was measured on the stagnation line of a cylinder exposed to artificial icing conditions in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT), and similarly for a cylinder exposed in flight to natural icing conditions. Ice thickness was observed to increase approximately linearly with exposure time during the initial icing period. The ice accretion rate was found to vary with cloud temperature during wet ice growth, and liquid runback from the stagnation region was inferred. A steady-state energy balance model for the icing surface was used to compare heat transfer characteristics for IRT and natural icing conditions. Ultrasonic measurements of wet and dry ice growth observed in the IRT and in flight were compared with icing regimes predicted by a series of heat transfer coefficients. The heat transfer magnitude was generally inferred to be higher for the IRT than for the natural icing conditions encountered in flight. An apparent variation in the heat transfer magnitude was also observed for flights conducted through different natural icing-cloud formations.

  2. Sliding temperatures of ice skates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colbeck, S. C.; Najarian, L.; Smith, H. B.

    1997-06-01

    The two theories developed to explain the low friction of ice, pressure melting and frictional heating, require opposite temperature shifts at the ice-skate interface. The arguments against pressure melting are strong, but only theoretical. A set of direct temperature measurements shows that frictional heating is the dominant mechanism because temperature behaves in the manner predicted by the theory of frictional heating. Like snow skis, ice skates are warmed by sliding and then cool when the sliding stops. The temperature increases with speed and with thermal insulation. The sliding leaves a warm track on the ice surface behind the skate and the skate sprays warm ejecta.

  3. NASA's program on icing research and technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reinmann, John J.; Shaw, Robert J.; Ranaudo, Richard J.

    1989-01-01

    NASA's program in aircraft icing research and technology is reviewed. The program relies heavily on computer codes and modern applied physics technology in seeking icing solutions on a finer scale than those offered in earlier programs. Three major goals of this program are to offer new approaches to ice protection, to improve our ability to model the response of an aircraft to an icing encounter, and to provide improved techniques and facilities for ground and flight testing. This paper reviews the following program elements: (1) new approaches to ice protection; (2) numerical codes for deicer analysis; (3) measurement and prediction of ice accretion and its effect on aircraft and aircraft components; (4) special wind tunnel test techniques for rotorcraft icing; (5) improvements of icing wind tunnels and research aircraft; (6) ground de-icing fluids used in winter operation; (7) fundamental studies in icing; and (8) droplet sizing instruments for icing clouds.

  4. Accurate high-throughput structure mapping and prediction with transition metal ion FRET

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Xiaozhen; Wu, Xiongwu; Bermejo, Guillermo A.; Brooks, Bernard R.; Taraska, Justin W.

    2013-01-01

    Mapping the landscape of a protein’s conformational space is essential to understanding its functions and regulation. The limitations of many structural methods have made this process challenging for most proteins. Here, we report that transition metal ion FRET (tmFRET) can be used in a rapid, highly parallel screen, to determine distances from multiple locations within a protein at extremely low concentrations. The distances generated through this screen for the protein Maltose Binding Protein (MBP) match distances from the crystal structure to within a few angstroms. Furthermore, energy transfer accurately detects structural changes during ligand binding. Finally, fluorescence-derived distances can be used to guide molecular simulations to find low energy states. Our results open the door to rapid, accurate mapping and prediction of protein structures at low concentrations, in large complex systems, and in living cells. PMID:23273426

  5. Accurate approximation method for prediction of class I MHC affinities for peptides of length 8, 10 and 11 using prediction tools trained on 9mers.

    PubMed

    Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole; Nielsen, Morten

    2008-06-01

    Several accurate prediction systems have been developed for prediction of class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC):peptide binding. Most of these are trained on binding affinity data of primarily 9mer peptides. Here, we show how prediction methods trained on 9mer data can be used for accurate binding affinity prediction of peptides of length 8, 10 and 11. The method gives the opportunity to predict peptides with a different length than nine for MHC alleles where no such peptides have been measured. As validation, the performance of this approach is compared to predictors trained on peptides of the peptide length in question. In this validation, the approximation method has an accuracy that is comparable to or better than methods trained on a peptide length identical to the predicted peptides. The algorithm has been implemented in the web-accessible servers NetMHC-3.0: http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHC-3.0, and NetMHCpan-1.1: http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHCpan-1.1

  6. In-flight icing on unmanned aerial vehicle and its aerodynamic penalties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szilder, K.; Yuan, W.

    2017-06-01

    A numerical prediction of ice accretion on HQ309, SD7032, and SD7037 airfoils and its aerodynamic penalties is described. Ice accretion prediction on a three-dimensional (3D) swept wing is also presented. In addition to airflow and drop trajectory solvers, NRC's (National Research Council) original, 3D, morphogenetic icing modeling approach has been used. The analysis was performed for a wide range of icing conditions identi¦ed in the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Appendix C icing envelope. They cover a range of drop sizes, air temperatures, and liquid water contents. For selected icing conditions, the resulting decrease in lift and increase in drag have been calculated.

  7. Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, Surendra; Ivins, Erik; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nowicki, Sophie

    2014-05-01

    A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has been generally losing its mass since the last glacial maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that the past loading is relatively less important than future loading on the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years 2100 and 2500 AD, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector of WAIS in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay approaches roughly 45 mm/yr in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is associated with the flattening of reverse bed, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote the stability to marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

  8. Recent Changes in Arctic Glaciers, Ice Caps, and the Greenland Ice Sheet: Cold Facts About Warm Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdalati, W.

    2005-12-01

    One of the major manifestations of Arctic change can be observed in the state of balance of Arctic glaciers and ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet. These ice masses are estimated to contain nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of ice, which is more than six times greater than all the water stored in the Earth's lakes, rivers, and snow combined and is the equivalent of over 7 meters of sea level. Most of these ice masses have been shrinking in recent in years, but their mass balance is highly variable on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the Greenland ice sheet most of the coastal regions have thinned substantially as melt has increased and some of its outlet glaciers have accelerated. Near the equilibrium line in West Greenland, we have seen evidence of summer acceleration that is linked to surface meltwater production, suggesting a relatively rapid response mechanism of the ice sheet change to a warming climate. At the same time, however, the vast interior regions of the Greenland ice sheet have shown little change or slight growth, as accumulation in these areas may have increased. Throughout much of the rest of the Arctic, many glaciers and ice caps have been shrinking in the past few decades, and in Canada and Alaska, the rate of ice loss seems to have accelerated during the late 1990s. These recent observations offer only a snapshot in time of the long-term behavior, but they are providing crucial information about the current state of ice mass balance and the mechanisms that control it in one of the most climatically sensitive regions on Earth. As we continue to learn more through a combination of remote sensing observations, in situ measurements and improved modeling capabilities, it is important that we coordinate and integrate these approaches effectively in order to predict future changes and their impact on sea level, freshwater discharge, and ocean circulation.

  9. Rewriting Ice Sheet "Glacier-ology"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bindschadler, R.

    2006-12-01

    The revolution in glaciology driven by the suite of increasingly sophisticated satellite instruments has been no more extreme than in the area of ice dynamics. Years ago, glaciologists were (probably unwittingly) selective in what properties of mountain glaciers were also applied to ice sheets. This reinforced the view that they responded slowly to their environment. Notions of rapid response driven by the ideas of John Mercer, Bill Budd and Terry Hughes were politely rejected by the centrists of mainstream glaciological thought. How the tables have turned--and by the ice sheets themselves, captured in the act of rapidly changing by modern remote sensors! The saw-toothed record of sea-level change over past glacial-interglacial cycles required the existence of rapid ice loss processes. Satellite based observations, supported by hard-earned field observations have extended the time scale over which ice sheets can suddenly change to ever shorter intervals: from centuries, to decades, to years to even minutes. As changes continue to be observed, the scientific community is forced to consider new or previously ignored processes to explain these observations. The penultimate goal of ice-sheet dynamics is to credibly predict the future of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this important endeavor, there is no substitute for our ability to observe. Without the extensive data sets provided by remote sensing, numerical models can be neither tested nor improved. The impact of remote sensing on our existing ability to predict the future must be compared to our probable state of knowledge and ability were these data never collected. Among many satellite observed phenomena we would be largely or wholly ignorant of are the recent acceleration of ice throughout much of coastal Greenland; the sudden disintegration of multiple ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula; and the dramatic thinning and acceleration of the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. These

  10. Determination of Ice Water Path in Ice-over-Water Cloud Systems Using Combined MODIS and AMSR-E Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Jianping; Minnis, Patrick; Lin, Bing; Yi, Yuhong; Fan, T.-F.; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Ayers, J. K.

    2006-01-01

    To provide more accurate ice cloud properties for evaluating climate models, the updated version of multi-layered cloud retrieval system (MCRS) is used to retrieve ice water path (IWP) in ice-over-water cloud systems over global ocean using combined instrument data from the Aqua satellite. The liquid water path (LWP) of lower layer water clouds is estimated from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) measurements. With the lower layer LWP known, the properties of the upper-level ice clouds are then derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer measurements by matching simulated radiances from a two-cloud layer radiative transfer model. Comparisons with single-layer cirrus systems and surface-based radar retrievals show that the MCRS can significantly improve the accuracy and reduce the over-estimation of optical depth and ice water path retrievals for ice over-water cloud systems. During the period from December 2004 through February 2005, the mean daytime ice cloud optical depth and IWP for overlapped ice-over-water clouds over ocean from Aqua are 7.6 and 146.4 gm(sup -2), respectively, significantly less than the initial single layer retrievals of 17.3 and 322.3 gm(sup -2). The mean IWP for actual single-layer clouds was 128.2 gm(sup -2).

  11. SeaRISE: A Multidisciplinary Research Initiative to Predict Rapid Changes in Global Sea Level Caused by Collapse of Marine Ice Sheets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

    1990-01-01

    The results of a workshop held to discuss the role of the polar ice sheets in global climate change are reported. The participants agreed that the most important aspect of the ice sheets' involvement in climate change is the potential of marine ice sheets to cause a rapid change in global sea level. To address this concern, a research initiative is called for that considers the full complexity of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-lithosphere system. This initiative, called SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) has the goal of predicting the contribution of marine ice sheets to rapid changes in global sea level in the next decade to few centuries. To attain this goal, a coordinated program of multidisciplinary investigations must be launched with the linked objectives of understanding the current state, internal dynamics, interactions, and history of this environmental system. The key questions needed to satisfy these objectives are presented and discussed along with a plan of action to make the SeaRISE project a reality.

  12. Balance Velocities of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joughin, Ian; Fahnestock, Mark; Ekholm, Simon; Kwok, Ron

    1997-01-01

    We present a map of balance velocities for the Greenland ice sheet. The resolution of the underlying DEM, which was derived primarily from radar altimetry data, yields far greater detail than earlier balance velocity estimates for Greenland. The velocity contours reveal in striking detail the location of an ice stream in northeastern Greenland, which was only recently discovered using satellite imagery. Enhanced flow associated with all of the major outlets is clearly visible, although small errors in the source data result in less accurate estimates of the absolute flow speeds. Nevertheless, the balance map is useful for ice-sheet modelling, mass balance studies, and field planning.

  13. Development and test of a Microwave Ice Accretion Measurement Instrument (MIAMI)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Magenheim, B.; Rocks, J. K.

    1982-01-01

    The development of an ice accretion measurement instrument that is a highly sensitive, accurate, rugged and reliable microprocessor controlled device using low level microwave energy for non-instrusive real time measurement and recording of ice growth history, including ice thickness and accretion rate is discussed. Data is displayed and recorded digitally. New experimental data is presented, obtained with the instrument, which demonstrates its ability to measure ice growth on a two-dimensional airfoil. The device is suitable for aircraft icing protection. It may be mounted flush, non-intrusively, on any part of an aircraft skin including rotor blades and engine inlets.

  14. SUCCESS Evidence for Cirrus Cloud Ice Nucleation Mechanisms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jensen, Eric; Gore, Warren J. Y. (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    During the SUCCESS mission, several measurements were made which should improve our understanding of ice nucleation processes in cirrus clouds. Temperature and water vapor concentration were made with a variety of instruments on the NASA DC-8. These observations should provide accurate upper tropospheric humidities. In particular, we will evaluate what humidities are required for ice nucleation. Preliminary results suggest that substantial supersaturations frequently exist in the upper troposphere. The leading-edge region of wave-clouds (where ice nucleation occurs) was sampled extensively at temperatures near -40 and -60C. These observations should give precise information about conditions required for ice nucleation. In addition, we will relate the observed aerosol composition and size distributions to the ice formation observed to evaluate the role of soot or mineral particles on ice nucleation. As an alternative technique for determining what particles act as ice nuclei, numerous samples of aerosols inside ice crystals were taken. In some cases, large numbers of aerosols were detected in each crystal, indicating that efficient scavenging occurred. Analysis of aerosols in ice crystals when only one particle per crystal was detected should help with the ice nucleation issue. Direct measurements of the ice nucleating activity of ambient aerosols drawn into airborne cloud chambers were also made. Finally, measurements of aerosols and ice crystals in contrails should indicate whether aircraft exhaust soot particles are effective ice nuclei.

  15. Dynamic Crush Characterization of Ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fasanella, Edwin L.; Boitnott, Richard L.; Kellas, Sotiris

    2006-01-01

    During the space shuttle return-to-flight preparations following the Columbia accident, finite element models were needed that could predict the threshold of critical damage to the orbiter's wing leading edge from ice debris impacts. Hence, an experimental program was initiated to provide crushing data from impacted ice for use in dynamic finite element material models. A high-speed drop tower was configured to capture force time histories of ice cylinders for impacts up to approximately 100 ft/s. At low velocity, the force-time history depended heavily on the internal crystalline structure of the ice. However, for velocities of 100 ft/s and above, the ice fractured on impact, behaved more like a fluid, and the subsequent force-time history curves were much less dependent on the internal crystalline structure.

  16. Comparing a thermo-mechanical Weichselian Ice Sheet reconstruction to reconstructions based on the sea level equation: aspects of ice configurations and glacial isostatic adjustment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, P.; Lund, B.; Näslund, J.-O.; Fastook, J.

    2014-05-01

    In this study we compare a recent reconstruction of the Weichselian Ice Sheet as simulated by the University of Maine ice sheet model (UMISM) to two reconstructions commonly used in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling: ICE-5G and ANU (Australian National University, also known as RSES). The UMISM reconstruction is carried out on a regional scale based on thermo-mechanical modelling, whereas ANU and ICE-5G are global models based on the sea level equation. The three models of the Weichselian Ice Sheet are compared directly in terms of ice volume, extent and thickness, as well as in terms of predicted glacial isostatic adjustment in Fennoscandia. The three reconstructions display significant differences. Whereas UMISM and ANU includes phases of pronounced advance and retreat prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), the thickness and areal extent of the ICE-5G ice sheet is more or less constant up until the LGM. During the post-LGM deglaciation phase ANU and ICE-5G melt relatively uniformly over the entire ice sheet in contrast to UMISM, which melts preferentially from the edges, thus reflecting the fundamental difference in the reconstruction scheme. We find that all three reconstructions fit the present-day uplift rates over Fennoscandia equally well, albeit with different optimal earth model parameters. Given identical earth models, ICE-5G predicts the fastest present-day uplift rates, and ANU the slowest. Moreover, only for ANU can a unique best-fit model be determined. For UMISM and ICE-5G there is a range of earth models that can reproduce the present-day uplift rates equally well. This is understood from the higher present-day uplift rates predicted by ICE-5G and UMISM, which result in bifurcations in the best-fit upper- and lower-mantle viscosities. We study the areal distributions of present-day residual surface velocities in Fennoscandia and show that all three reconstructions generally over-predict velocities in southwestern Fennoscandia and that

  17. On the role of ice-nucleating aerosol in the formation of ice particles in tropical mesoscale convective systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ladino, Luis A.; Korolev, Alexei; Heckman, Ivan; Wolde, Mengistu; Fridlind, Ann M.; Ackerman, Andrew S.

    2017-02-01

    Over the decades, the cloud physics community has debated the nature and role of aerosol particles in ice initiation. The present study shows that the measured concentration of ice crystals in tropical mesoscale convective systems exceeds the concentration of ice nucleating particles (INPs) by several orders of magnitude. The concentration of INPs was assessed from the measured aerosol particle concentration in the size range of 0.5 to 1 µm. The observations from this study suggest that primary ice crystals formed on INPs make only a minor contribution to the total concentration of ice crystals in tropical mesoscale convective systems. This is found by comparing the predicted INP number concentrations with in situ ice particle number concentrations. The obtained measurements suggest that ice multiplication is the likely explanation for the observed high concentrations of ice crystals in this type of convective system.

  18. On the role of ice-nucleating aerosol in the formation of ice particles in tropical mesoscale convective systems

    PubMed Central

    Ladino, Luis A.; Korolev, Alexei; Heckman, Ivan; Wolde, Mengistu; Fridlind, Ann M.; Ackerman, Andrew S.

    2018-01-01

    Over decades, the cloud physics community has debated the nature and role of aerosol particles in ice initiation. The present study shows that the measured concentration of ice crystals in tropical mesoscale convective systems exceeds the concentration of ice nucleating particles (INPs) by several orders of magnitude. The concentration of INPs was assessed from the measured aerosol particles concentration in the size range of 0.5 to 1 µm. The observations from this study suggest that primary ice crystals formed on INPs make only a minor contribution to the total concentration of ice crystals in tropical mesoscale convective systems. This is found by comparing the predicted INP number concentrations with in-situ ice particle number concentrations. The obtained measurements suggest that ice multiplication is the likely explanation for the observed high concentrations of ice crystals in this type of convective system. PMID:29551842

  19. Bayesian inference of ice thickness from remote-sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werder, Mauro A.; Huss, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Knowledge about ice thickness and volume is indispensable for studying ice dynamics, future sea-level rise due to glacier melt or their contribution to regional hydrology. Accurate measurements of glacier thickness require on-site work, usually employing radar techniques. However, these field measurements are time consuming, expensive and sometime downright impossible. Conversely, measurements of the ice surface, namely elevation and flow velocity, are becoming available world-wide through remote sensing. The model of Farinotti et al. (2009) calculates ice thicknesses based on a mass conservation approach paired with shallow ice physics using estimates of the surface mass balance. The presented work applies a Bayesian inference approach to estimate the parameters of a modified version of this forward model by fitting it to both measurements of surface flow speed and of ice thickness. The inverse model outputs ice thickness as well the distribution of the error. We fit the model to ten test glaciers and ice caps and quantify the improvements of thickness estimates through the usage of surface ice flow measurements.

  20. Thermal regime of an ice-wedge polygon landscape near Barrow, Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daanen, R. P.; Liljedahl, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Tundra landscapes are changing all over the circumpolar Arctic due to permafrost degradation. Soil cracking and infilling of meltwater repeated over thousands of years form ice wedges, which produce the characteristic surface pattern of ice-wedge polygon tundra. Rapid top-down thawing of massive ice leads to differential ground subsidence and sets in motion a series of short- and long-term hydrological and ecological changes. Subsequent responses in the soil thermal regime drive further permafrost degradation and/or stabilization. Here we explore the soil thermal regime of an ice-wedge polygon terrain near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) with the Water balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). WaSiM is a hydro-thermal model developed to simulate the water balance at the watershed scale and was recently refined to represent the hydrological processes unique to cold climates. WaSiM includes modules that represent surface runoff, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and soil moisture, while active layer freezing and thawing is based on a direct coupling of hydrological and thermal processes. A new snow module expands the vadose zone calculations into the snow pack, allowing the model to simulate the snow as a porous medium similar to soil. Together with a snow redistribution algorithm based on local topography, this latest addition to WaSiM makes simulation of the ground thermal regime much more accurate during winter months. Effective representation of ground temperatures during winter is crucial in the simulation of the permafrost thermal regime and allows for refined predictions of future ice-wedge degradation or stabilization.

  1. A Mission to Observe Ice in Clouds from Space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ackerman, S.; O'CStarr, D.; Skofronick-Jackson, G.; Evans, F.; Wang, J. R.; Racette, P.; Norris, P.; daSilva, A.; Soden, B.

    2006-01-01

    To date there have been multiple satellite missions to observe and retrieve cloud top properties and the liquid in, and precipitation from, clouds. There are currently a few missions that attempt to measure cloud ice properties as a byproduct of other observations. However, we do not yet quantitatively understand the processes that control the water budget of the upper troposphere where ice is the predominant phase, and how these processes are linked to precipitation processes and the radiative energy budget. The ice in clouds either melts into rain or is detrained, and persists, as cirrus clouds affecting the hydrological and energy cycle, respectively. Fully modeling the Earth's climate and improving weather and climate forecasts requires accurate satellite measurements of various cloud properties at the temporal and spatial scales of cloud processes. The uncertainty in knowledge of these ice characteristics is reflected in the large discrepancies in model simulations of the upper tropospheric water budget. Model simulations are sensitive to the partition of ice between precipitation and outflow processes, i.e., to the parameterization of ice clouds and ice processes. This presentation will describe the Submillimeter-wave InfraRed Ice Cloud Experiment (SIRICE) concept, a satellite mission designed to acquire global Earth radiance measurements in the infrared and submillimeter-wave region (183-874 GHz). If successful, this mission will bridge the measurement gap between microwave sounders and shorter-wavelength infrared and visible sensors. The brightness temperatures at submillimeter-wave frequencies are especially sensitive to cirrus ice particle sizes (because they are comparable to the wavelength). This allows for more accurate ice water path estimates when multiple channels are used to probe into the cloud layers. Further, submillimeter wavelengths offer simplicity in the retrieval algorithms because they do not probe into the liquid and near surface portions

  2. Early Student Support to Investigate the Role of Sea Ice Albedo Feedback in Sea Ice Predictions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-30

    time periods: 1925-1960, 1970-2005, 2015-2050, and 2060 -2095. Model runs from the first two time periods had historical radiative forcing, whereas the...of the Arctic exhibits the relationship seen near the sea ice edge in the late 20th century. • Between 2015-2050 and 2060 -2095, there is a regime...1980). Ice-free summers are not found until 2060s . • From the linear regressions, air temperatures decrease in importance over time as good

  3. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break.

    PubMed

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean-Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Iñaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2016-10-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. How accurate is our clinical prediction of "minimal prostate cancer"?

    PubMed

    Leibovici, Dan; Shikanov, Sergey; Gofrit, Ofer N; Zagaja, Gregory P; Shilo, Yaniv; Shalhav, Arieh L

    2013-07-01

    Recommendations for active surveillance versus immediate treatment for low risk prostate cancer are based on biopsy and clinical data, assuming that a low volume of well-differentiated carcinoma will be associated with a low progression risk. However, the accuracy of clinical prediction of minimal prostate cancer (MPC) is unclear. To define preoperative predictors for MPC in prostatectomy specimens and to examine the accuracy of such prediction. Data collected on 1526 consecutive radical prostatectomy patients operated in a single center between 2003 and 2008 included: age, body mass index, preoperative prostate-specific antigen level, biopsy Gleason score, clinical stage, percentage of positive biopsy cores, and maximal core length (MCL) involvement. MPC was defined as < 5% of prostate volume involvement with organ-confined Gleason score < or = 6. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to define independent predictors of minimal disease. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was used to define cutoff values for the predictors and measure the accuracy of prediction. MPC was found in 241 patients (15.8%). Clinical stage, biopsy Gleason's score, percent of positive biopsy cores, and maximal involved core length were associated with minimal disease (OR 0.42, 0.1, 0.92, and 0.9, respectively). Independent predictors of MPC included: biopsy Gleason score, percent of positive cores and MCL (OR 0.21, 095 and 0.95, respectively). CART showed that when the MCL exceeded 11.5%, the likelihood of MPC was 3.8%. Conversely, when applying the most favorable preoperative conditions (Gleason < or = 6, < 20% positive cores, MCL < or = 11.5%) the chance of minimal disease was 41%. Biopsy Gleason score, the percent of positive cores and MCL are independently associated with MPC. While preoperative prediction of significant prostate cancer was accurate, clinical prediction of MPC was incorrect 59% of the time. Caution is necessary when

  5. Icing Analysis of a Swept NACA 0012 Wing Using LEWICE3D Version 3.48

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bidwell, Colin S.

    2014-01-01

    Icing calculations were performed for a NACA 0012 swept wing tip using LEWICE3D Version 3.48 coupled with the ANSYS CFX flow solver. The calculated ice shapes were compared to experimental data generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). The IRT tests were designed to test the performance of the LEWICE3D ice void density model which was developed to improve the prediction of swept wing ice shapes. Icing tests were performed for a range of temperatures at two different droplet inertia parameters and two different sweep angles. The predicted mass agreed well with the experiment with an average difference of 12%. The LEWICE3D ice void density model under-predicted void density by an average of 30% for the large inertia parameter cases and by 63% for the small inertia parameter cases. This under-prediction in void density resulted in an over-prediction of ice area by an average of 115%. The LEWICE3D ice void density model produced a larger average area difference with experiment than the standard LEWICE density model, which doesn't account for the voids in the swept wing ice shape, (115% and 75% respectively) but it produced ice shapes which were deemed more appropriate because they were conservative (larger than experiment). Major contributors to the overly conservative ice shape predictions were deficiencies in the leading edge heat transfer and the sensitivity of the void ice density model to the particle inertia parameter. The scallop features present on the ice shapes were thought to generate interstitial flow and horse shoe vortices which enhance the leading edge heat transfer. A set of changes to improve the leading edge heat transfer and the void density model were tested. The changes improved the ice shape predictions considerably. More work needs to be done to evaluate the performance of these modifications for a wider range of geometries and icing conditions.

  6. Icing Analysis of a Swept NACA 0012 Wing Using LEWICE3D Version 3.48

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bidwell, Colin S.

    2014-01-01

    Icing calculations were performed for a NACA 0012 swept wing tip using LEWICE3D Version 3.48 coupled with the ANSYS CFX flow solver. The calculated ice shapes were compared to experimental data generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). The IRT tests were designed to test the performance of the LEWICE3D ice void density model which was developed to improve the prediction of swept wing ice shapes. Icing tests were performed for a range of temperatures at two different droplet inertia parameters and two different sweep angles. The predicted mass agreed well with the experiment with an average difference of 12%. The LEWICE3D ice void density model under-predicted void density by an average of 30% for the large inertia parameter cases and by 63% for the small inertia parameter cases. This under-prediction in void density resulted in an over-prediction of ice area by an average of 115%. The LEWICE3D ice void density model produced a larger average area difference with experiment than the standard LEWICE density model, which doesn't account for the voids in the swept wing ice shape, (115% and 75% respectively) but it produced ice shapes which were deemed more appropriate because they were conservative (larger than experiment). Major contributors to the overly conservative ice shape predictions were deficiencies in the leading edge heat transfer and the sensitivity of the void ice density model to the particle inertia parameter. The scallop features present on the ice shapes were thought to generate interstitial flow and horse shoe vortices which enhance the leading edge heat transfer. A set of changes to improve the leading edge heat transfer and the void density model were tested. The changes improved the ice shape predictions considerably. More work needs to be done to evaluate the performance of these modifications for a wider range of geometries and icing conditions

  7. Road icing forecasting and detecting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Hongke; Zheng, Jinnan; Li, Peiqi; Wang, Qiucai

    2017-05-01

    Regard for the facts that the low accuracy and low real-time of the artificial observation to determine the road icing condition, and it is difficult to forecast icing situation, according to the main factors influencing the road-icing, and the electrical characteristics reflected by the pavement ice layer, this paper presents an innovative system, that is, ice-forecasting of the highway's dangerous section. The system bases on road surface water salinity measurements and pavement temperature measurement to calculate the freezing point of water and temperature change trend, and then predicts the occurrence time of road icing; using capacitance measurements to verdict the road surface is frozen or not; This paper expounds the method of using single chip microcomputer as the core of the control system and described the business process of the system.

  8. Gypsum crystals observed in experimental and natural sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geilfus, N.-X.; Galley, R. J.; Cooper, M.; Halden, N.; Hare, A.; Wang, F.; Søgaard, D. H.; Rysgaard, S.

    2013-12-01

    gypsum has been predicted to precipitate in sea ice, it has never been observed. Here we provide the first report on gypsum precipitation in both experimental and natural sea ice. Crystals were identified by X-ray diffraction analysis. Based on their apparent distinguishing characteristics, the gypsum crystals were identified as being authigenic. The FREeZing CHEMistry (FREZCHEM) model results support our observations of both gypsum and ikaite precipitation at typical in situ sea ice temperatures and confirms the "Gitterman pathway" where gypsum is predicted to precipitate. The occurrence of authigenic gypsum in sea ice during its formation represents a new observation of precipitate formation and potential marine deposition in polar seas.

  9. A New Way to Measure Cirrus Ice Water Content by Using Ice Raman Scatter with Raman Lidar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Zhien; Whiteman, David N.; Demoz, Belay; Veselovskii, Igor

    2004-01-01

    High and cold cirrus clouds mainly contain irregular ice crystals, such as, columns, hexagonal plates, bullet rosettes, and dendrites, and have different impacts on the climate system than low-level clouds, such as stratus, stratocumulus, and cumulus. The radiative effects of cirrus clouds on the current and future climate depend strongly on cirrus cloud microphysical properties including ice water content (IWC) and ice crystal sizes, which are mostly an unknown aspect of cinus clouds. Because of the natural complexity of cirrus clouds and their high locations, it is a challenging task to get them accurately by both remote sensing and in situ sampling. This study presents a new method to remotely sense cirrus microphysical properties by using ice Raman scatter with a Raman lidar. The intensity of Raman scattering is fundamentally proportional to the number of molecules involved. Therefore, ice Raman scattering signal provides a more direct way to measure IWC than other remote sensing methods. Case studies show that this method has the potential to provide essential information of cirrus microphysical properties to study cloud physical processes in cirrus clouds.

  10. Correlations Among Ice Measurements, Impingement Rates Icing Conditions, and Drag Coefficients for Unswept NACA 65A004 Airfoil

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gray, Vernon H.

    1958-01-01

    An empirical relation has been obtained by which the change in drag coefficient caused by ice formations on an unswept NACA 65AO04 airfoil section can be determined from the following icing and operating conditions: icing time, airspeed, air total temperature, liquid-water content, cloud droplet impingement efficiencies, airfoil chord length, and angles of attack. The correlation was obtained by use of measured ice heights and ice angles. These measurements were obtained from a variety of ice formations, which were carefully photographed, cross-sectioned, and weighed. Ice weights increased at a constant rate with icing time in a rime icing condition and at progressively increasing rates in glaze icing conditions. Initial rates of ice collection agreed reasonably well with values predicted from droplet impingement data. Experimental droplet impingement rates obtained on this airfoil section agreed with previous theoretical calculations for angles of attack of 40 or less. Disagreement at higher angles of attack was attributed to flow separation from the upper surface of the experimental airfoil model.

  11. Distribution of rock, metals, and ices in Callisto.

    PubMed

    Anderson, J D; Schubert, G; Jacobson, R A; Lau, E L; Moore, W B; Sjogren, W L

    1998-06-05

    Radio Doppler data from a single encounter (C3) of the Galileo spacecraft with Callisto, the outermost Galilean moon of Jupiter, indicated that Callisto was probably undifferentiated. Now, similar data from a second encounter (C9) corroborate this conclusion, but more accurate data from a third encounter (C10) indicate that the rock and ice within Callisto have partially, but not completely, separated. Callisto may be differentiated into a rock-metal core less than 25 percent of Callisto's radius, an outer layer of clean ice less than 350 km thick, and a middle layer of mixed rock and ice. Models in which ice and rock are mixed all the way to the center of Callisto are also consistent with the data.

  12. Machine learning predictions of molecular properties: Accurate many-body potentials and nonlocality in chemical space

    DOE PAGES

    Hansen, Katja; Biegler, Franziska; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; ...

    2015-06-04

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstratemore » prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the “holy grail” of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. The same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies.« less

  13. Machine Learning Predictions of Molecular Properties: Accurate Many-Body Potentials and Nonlocality in Chemical Space

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstrate prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the “holy grail” of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. In addition, the same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies. PMID:26113956

  14. Dark matter at DeepCore and IceCube

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barger, V.; Gao, Y.; Marfatia, D.

    2011-03-01

    With the augmentation of IceCube by DeepCore, the prospect for detecting dark matter annihilation in the Sun is much improved. To complement this experimental development, we provide a thorough template analysis of the particle physics issues that are necessary to precisely interpret the data. Our study is about nitty-gritty and is intended as a framework for detailed work on a variety of dark matter candidates. To accurately predict the source neutrino spectrum, we account for spin-correlations of the final state particles and the helicity-dependence of their decays, and absorption effects at production. We fully treat the propagation of neutrinos through the Sun, including neutrino oscillations, energy losses and tau regeneration. We simulate the survival probability of muons produced in the Earth by using the Muon Monte Carlo program, reproduce the published IceCube effective area, and update the parameters in the differential equation that approximates muon energy losses. To evaluate the zenith-angle dependent atmospheric background event rate, we track the Sun and determine the time it spends at each zenith-angle. Throughout, we employ neutralino dark matter as our example.

  15. Airborne Tomographic Swath Ice Sounding Processing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Xiaoqing; Rodriquez, Ernesto; Freeman, Anthony; Jezek, Ken

    2013-01-01

    Glaciers and ice sheets modulate global sea level by storing water deposited as snow on the surface, and discharging water back into the ocean through melting. Their physical state can be characterized in terms of their mass balance and dynamics. To estimate the current ice mass balance, and to predict future changes in the motion of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, it is necessary to know the ice sheet thickness and the physical conditions of the ice sheet surface and bed. This information is required at fine resolution and over extensive portions of the ice sheets. A tomographic algorithm has been developed to take raw data collected by a multiple-channel synthetic aperture sounding radar system over a polar ice sheet and convert those data into two-dimensional (2D) ice thickness measurements. Prior to this work, conventional processing techniques only provided one-dimensional ice thickness measurements along profiles.

  16. Full Stokes finite-element modeling of ice sheets using a graphics processing unit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seddik, H.; Greve, R.

    2016-12-01

    Thermo-mechanical simulation of ice sheets is an important approach to understand and predict their evolution in a changing climate. For that purpose, higher order (e.g., ISSM, BISICLES) and full Stokes (e.g., Elmer/Ice, http://elmerice.elmerfem.org) models are increasingly used to more accurately model the flow of entire ice sheets. In parallel to this development, the rapidly improving performance and capabilities of Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) allows to efficiently offload more calculations of complex and computationally demanding problems on those devices. Thus, in order to continue the trend of using full Stokes models with greater resolutions, using GPUs should be considered for the implementation of ice sheet models. We developed the GPU-accelerated ice-sheet model Sainō. Sainō is an Elmer (http://www.csc.fi/english/pages/elmer) derivative implemented in Objective-C which solves the full Stokes equations with the finite element method. It uses the standard OpenCL language (http://www.khronos.org/opencl/) to offload the assembly of the finite element matrix on the GPU. A mesh-coloring scheme is used so that elements with the same color (non-sharing nodes) are assembled in parallel on the GPU without the need for synchronization primitives. The current implementation shows that, for the ISMIP-HOM experiment A, during the matrix assembly in double precision with 8000, 87,500 and 252,000 brick elements, Sainō is respectively 2x, 10x and 14x faster than Elmer/Ice (when both models are run on a single processing unit). In single precision, Sainō is even 3x, 20x and 25x faster than Elmer/Ice. A detailed description of the comparative results between Sainō and Elmer/Ice will be presented, and further perspectives in optimization and the limitations of the current implementation.

  17. Passive infrared ice detection for helicopter applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dershowitz, Adam L.; Hansman, R. John, Jr.

    1990-01-01

    A technique is proposed to remotely detect rotor icing on helicopters by using passive IR thermometry to detect the warming caused by latent heat release as supercooled water freezes. During icing, the ice accretion region will be warmer than the uniced trailing edge, resulting in a characteristic chordwise temperature profile. Preliminary tests were conducted on a static model in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel for a variety of wet (glaze) and dry (rime) ice conditions. The chordwise temperature profiles were confirmed by observation with an IR thermal video system and thermocouple observations. The IR observations were consistent with predictions of the LEWICE ice accretion code, which was used to extrapolate the observations to rotor icing conditions. Based on the static observations, the passive IR ice detection technique appears promising; however, further testing or rotating blades is required.

  18. Turbulent heat exchange between water and ice at an evolving ice-water interface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramudu, E.; Hirsh, B.; Olson, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-02-01

    Experimental results are presented on the time evolution of ice subject to a turbulent shear flow in a layer of water of uniform depth. Our study is motivated by observations in the ocean cavity beneath Antarctic ice shelves, where shoaling of Circumpolar Deep Water into the cavity has been implicated in the accelerated melting of the ice shelf base. Measurements of inflow and outflow at the ice shelf front have shown that not all of the heat entering the cavity is delivered to the ice shelf, suggesting that turbulent transfer to the ice represents an important bottleneck. Given that a range of turbulent transfer coefficients has been used in models it is important to better constrain this parameter. We measure as a function of time in our experiments the thickness of the ice, temperatures in the ice and water, and fluid velocity in the shear flow, starting from an initial condition in which the water is at rest and the ice has grown by conduction above a cold plate. The strength of the applied turbulent shear flow is represented in terms of a Reynolds number Re, which is varied over the range 3.5 × 103 ≤ Re ≤ 1.9 × 104. Transient partial melting of the ice occurs at the lower end of this range of Re and complete transient melting of the ice occurs at the higher end of the range. Following these melting transients, the ice reforms at a rate that is independent of Re. We fit to our experimental measurements of ice thickness and temperature a one-dimensional model for the evolution of the ice thickness in which the turbulent heat transfer is parameterized in terms of the friction velocity of the shear flow. Comparison with the Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf yields qualitative agreement between the transient ice melting rates predicted by our model and the shelf melting rate inferred from the field observations.

  19. Pyroelectricity of water ice.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hanfu; Bell, Richard C; Iedema, Martin J; Schenter, Gregory K; Wu, Kai; Cowin, James P

    2008-05-22

    Water ice usually is thought to have zero pyroelectricity by symmetry. However, biasing it with ions breaks the symmetry because of the induced partial dipole alignment. This unmasks a large pyroelectricity. Ions were soft-landed upon 1 mum films of water ice at temperatures greater than 160 K. When cooled below 140-150 K, the dipole alignment locks in. Work function measurements of these films then show high and reversible pyroelectric activity from 30 to 150 K. For an initial approximately 10 V induced by the deposited ions at 160 K, the observed bias below 150 K varies approximately as 10 Vx(T/150 K)2. This implies that water has pyroelectric coefficients as large as that of many commercial pyroelectrics, such as lead zirconate titanate (PZT). The pyroelectricity of water ice, not previously reported, is in reasonable agreement with that predicted using harmonic analysis of a model system of SPC ice. The pyroelectricity is observed in crystalline and compact amorphous ice, deuterated or not. This implies that for water ice between 0 and 150 K (such as astrophysical ices), temperature changes can induce strong electric fields (approximately 10 MV/m) that can influence their chemistry, ion trajectories, or binding.

  20. NASA: First Map Of Thawed Areas Under Greenland Ice Sheet

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    NASA researchers have helped produce the first map showing what parts of the bottom of the massive Greenland Ice Sheet are thawed – key information in better predicting how the ice sheet will react to a warming climate. Greenland’s thick ice sheet insulates the bedrock below from the cold temperatures at the surface, so the bottom of the ice is often tens of degrees warmer than at the top, because the ice bottom is slowly warmed by heat coming from the Earth’s depths. Knowing whether Greenland’s ice lies on wet, slippery ground or is anchored to dry, frozen bedrock is essential for predicting how this ice will flow in the future, But scientists have very few direct observations of the thermal conditions beneath the ice sheet, obtained through fewer than two dozen boreholes that have reached the bottom. Now, a new study synthesizes several methods to infer the Greenland Ice Sheet’s basal thermal state –whether the bottom of the ice is melted or not– leading to the first map that identifies frozen and thawed areas across the whole ice sheet. Map caption: This first-of-a-kind map, showing which parts of the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet are likely thawed (red), frozen (blue) or still uncertain (gray), will help scientists better predict how the ice will flow in a warming climate. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/Jesse Allen Read more: go.nasa.gov/2avKgl2 NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  1. Modeling variability in dendritic ice crystal backscattering cross sections at millimeter wavelengths using a modified Rayleigh-Gans theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Yinghui; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Aydin, Kültegin; Botta, Giovanni; Verlinde, Johannes

    2013-12-01

    Using the Generalized Multi-particle Mie-method (GMM), Botta et al. (in this issue) [7] created a database of backscattering cross sections for 412 different ice crystal dendrites at X-, Ka- and W-band wavelengths for different incident angles. The Rayleigh-Gans theory, which accounts for interference effects but ignores interactions between different parts of an ice crystal, explains much, but not all, of the variability in the database of backscattering cross sections. Differences between it and the GMM range from -3.5 dB to +2.5 dB and are highly dependent on the incident angle. To explain the residual variability a physically intuitive iterative method was developed to estimate the internal electric field within an ice crystal that accounts for interactions between the neighboring regions within it. After modifying the Rayleigh-Gans theory using this estimated internal electric field, the difference between the estimated backscattering cross sections and those from the GMM method decreased to within 0.5 dB for most of the ice crystals. The largest percentage differences occur when the form factor from the Rayleigh-Gans theory is close to zero. Both interference effects and neighbor interactions are sensitive to the morphology of ice crystals. Improvements in ice-microphysical models are necessary to predict or diagnose internal structures within ice crystals to aid in more accurate interpretation of radar returns. Observations of the morphology of ice crystals are, in turn, necessary to guide the development of such ice-microphysical models and to better understand the statistical properties of ice crystal morphologies in different environmental conditions.

  2. Mixed ice accretion on aircraft wings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janjua, Zaid A.; Turnbull, Barbara; Hibberd, Stephen; Choi, Kwing-So

    2018-02-01

    Ice accretion is a problematic natural phenomenon that affects a wide range of engineering applications including power cables, radio masts, and wind turbines. Accretion on aircraft wings occurs when supercooled water droplets freeze instantaneously on impact to form rime ice or runback as water along the wing to form glaze ice. Most models to date have ignored the accretion of mixed ice, which is a combination of rime and glaze. A parameter we term the "freezing fraction" is defined as the fraction of a supercooled droplet that freezes on impact with the top surface of the accretion ice to explore the concept of mixed ice accretion. Additionally we consider different "packing densities" of rime ice, mimicking the different bulk rime densities observed in nature. Ice accretion is considered in four stages: rime, primary mixed, secondary mixed, and glaze ice. Predictions match with existing models and experimental data in the limiting rime and glaze cases. The mixed ice formulation however provides additional insight into the composition of the overall ice structure, which ultimately influences adhesion and ice thickness, and shows that for similar atmospheric parameter ranges, this simple mixed ice description leads to very different accretion rates. A simple one-dimensional energy balance was solved to show how this freezing fraction parameter increases with decrease in atmospheric temperature, with lower freezing fraction promoting glaze ice accretion.

  3. Ice sheet climate modeling: past achievements, ongoing challenges, and future endeavors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenaerts, J.

    2017-12-01

    Fluctuations in surface mass balance (SMB) mask out a substantial portion of contemporary Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. That implies that we need accurate, consistent, and long-term SMB time series to isolate the mass loss signal. This in turn requires understanding of the processes driving SMB, and how they interplay. The primary controls on present-day ice sheet SMB are snowfall, which is regulated by large-scale atmospheric variability, and surface meltwater production at the ice sheet's edges, which is a complex result of atmosphere-surface interactions. Additionally, wind-driven snow redistribution and sublimation are large SMB contributors on the downslope areas of the ice sheets. Climate models provide an integrated framework to simulate all these individual ice sheet components. Recent developments in RACMO2, a regional climate model bound by atmospheric reanalyses, have focused on enhancing horizontal resolution, including blowing snow, snow albedo, and meltwater processes. Including these physics not only enhanced our understanding of the ice sheet climate system, but also enabled to obtain increasingly accurate estimates of ice sheet SMB. However, regional models are not suitable to capture the mutual interactions between ice sheet and the remainder of the global climate system in transient climates. To take that next step, global climate models are essential. In this talk, I will highlight our present work on improving ice sheet climate in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In particular, we focus on an improved representation of polar firn, ice sheet clouds, and precipitation. For this exercise, we extensively use field observations, remote sensing data, as well as RACMO2. Next, I will highlight how CESM is used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet SMB, its drivers, and past and present changes.

  4. On the Ice Nucleation Spectrum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barahona, D.

    2012-01-01

    This work presents a novel formulation of the ice nucleation spectrum, i.e. the function relating the ice crystal concentration to cloud formation conditions and aerosol properties. The new formulation is physically-based and explicitly accounts for the dependency of the ice crystal concentration on temperature, supersaturation, cooling rate, and particle size, surface area and composition. This is achieved by introducing the concepts of ice nucleation coefficient (the number of ice germs present in a particle) and nucleation probability dispersion function (the distribution of ice nucleation coefficients within the aerosol population). The new formulation is used to generate ice nucleation parameterizations for the homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets and the heterogeneous deposition ice nucleation on dust and soot ice nuclei. For homogeneous freezing, it was found that by increasing the dispersion in the droplet volume distribution the fraction of supercooled droplets in the population increases. For heterogeneous ice nucleation the new formulation consistently describes singular and stochastic behavior within a single framework. Using a fundamentally stochastic approach, both cooling rate independence and constancy of the ice nucleation fraction over time, features typically associated with singular behavior, were reproduced. Analysis of the temporal dependency of the ice nucleation spectrum suggested that experimental methods that measure the ice nucleation fraction over few seconds would tend to underestimate the ice nuclei concentration. It is shown that inferring the aerosol heterogeneous ice nucleation properties from measurements of the onset supersaturation and temperature may carry significant error as the variability in ice nucleation properties within the aerosol population is not accounted for. This work provides a simple and rigorous ice nucleation framework where theoretical predictions, laboratory measurements and field campaign data can be

  5. Airborne Grid Sea-Ice Surveys for Comparison with CryoSat-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brozena, J. M.; Gardner, J. M.; Liang, R.; Hagen, R. A.; Ball, D.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory is engaged in a study of the changing Arctic with a particular focus on ice thickness and distribution variability. The purpose is to optimize computer models used to predict sea ice changes. An important part of our study is to calibrate/validate CryoSat-2 ice thickness data prior to its incorporation into new ice forecast models. The large footprint of the CryoSat-2 altimeter over sea-ice is a significant issue in any attempt to ground-truth the data. Along-track footprints are reduced to ~ 300 m by SAR processing of the returns. However, the cross-track footprint is determined by the topography of the surface. Further, the actual return is the sum of the returns from individual reflectors within the footprint making it difficult to interpret the return, and optimize the waveform tracker. We therefore collected a series of grids of airborne scanning lidar and nadir pointing radar on sub-satellite tracks over sea-ice that would extend far enough cross-track to capture the illuminated area. One difficulty in the collection of grids comprised of adjacent overlapping tracks is that the ice moves as much as 300 m over the duration of a single track (~ 10 min). With a typical lidar swath width of 500m we needed to adjust the survey tracks in near real-time for the ice motion. This was accomplished by a photogrammetric method of ice velocity determination (RTIME) reported in another presentation. Post-processing refinements resulted in typical track-to-track miss-ties of ~ 1-2 m, much of which could be attributed to ice deformation over the period of the survey. An important factor is that we were able to reconstruct the ice configuration at the time of the satellite overflight, resulting in an accurate representation of the surface illuminated by CryoSat-2. Our intention is to develop a model of the ice surface using the lidar grid which includes both snow and ice using radar profiles to determine snow thickness. In 2013 a set of 6

  6. Evaluation of selected methods for determining streamflow during periods of ice effect

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Melcher, N.B.; Walker, J.F.

    1990-01-01

    The methods are classified into two general categories, subjective and analytical, depending on whether individual judgement is necessary for method application. On the basis of results of the evaluation for the three Iowa stations, two of the subjective methods (discharge ratio and hydrographic-and-climatic comparison) were more accurate than the other subjective methods, and approximately as accurate as the best analytical method. Three of the analytical methods (index velocity, adjusted rating curve, and uniform flow) could potentially be used for streamflow-gaging stations where the need for accurate ice-affected discharge estimates justifies the expense of collecting additional field data. One analytical method (ice adjustment factor) may be appropriate for use for stations with extremely stable stage-discharge ratings and measuring sections. Further research is needed to refine the analytical methods. The discharge ratio and multiple regression methods produce estimates of streamflow for varying ice conditions using information obtained from the existing U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging network.

  7. A 1-D Cryothermal Model of Ceres’ Megaregolith: Predictions for Surface Vapor Flux, Subsurface Temperatures and Pore Ice Distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reynolds, Dylan; Wood, Stephen E.; Bapst, Jonathan; Mehlhaff, Joshua; Griffiths, Stephen G.

    2014-11-01

    We have applied a self-consistent 1-D model for heat diffusion, vapor diffusion, and ice condensation/sublimation, and surface energy balance to investigate our hypothesis for the source of the recently observed water vapor around Ceres [1]. As described in a companion presentation [2], we find that the estimated global flux of 6 kg/s can be produced by steady-state sublimation of subsurface ice driven by the “geothermal” temperature gradient for a heat flux of 1 mW/m2 - the value estimated for a chondritic abundance of heat-producing elements [3,4]. We will present a detailed description of our Ceres cryothermal diffusion model and comparisons with previous models. One key difference is the use of a new physics-based analytic model (‘MaxRTCM’) for calculating the thermal conductivity (Kth) of planetary regolith [5] that has been validated by comparisons to a wide range of laboratory data [6]. MaxRTCM predicts much lower Kth values in the upper regolith than those in previous work [3]. It also accounts for a process first modeled in a study of unstable equatorial ground ice on Mars [7,8], where vapor diffusing up from a receding ice table toward the surface can recondense at shallower depths - eventually forming a steady-state profile of pore ice volume fraction that increases with depth and maintains a constant flux of vapor at all depths [7]. Using MaxRTCM we calculate the corresponding Kth(z) profiles and will present predictions and implications of the resulting temperature profile in the upper few kilometers of Ceres’ megaregolith.References: [1] Küppers et al. (2014), Nature, 505(7484), 525-527. [2] Wood et al., 2014, this meeting. [3] Fanale & Salvail (1989) Icarus 82, 97-110. [4] McCord and Sotin (2005) JGR 110, E05009. [5] Wood (2013) LPSC Abs. 44, 3077. [6] Wood (2014), Icarus, in revision. [7] Mellon et al. (1997), JGR, 102, 19357-69. [8] Clifford (1993), JGR, 98, 10973-11016.

  8. How accurate are resting energy expenditure prediction equations in obese trauma and burn patients?

    PubMed

    Stucky, Chee-Chee H; Moncure, Michael; Hise, Mary; Gossage, Clint M; Northrop, David

    2008-01-01

    While the prevalence of obesity continues to increase in our society, outdated resting energy expenditure (REE) prediction equations may overpredict energy requirements in obese patients. Accurate feeding is essential since overfeeding has been demonstrated to adversely affect outcomes. The first objective was to compare REE calculated by prediction equations to the measured REE in obese trauma and burn patients. Our hypothesis was that an equation using fat-free mass would give a more accurate prediction. The second objective was to consider the effect of a commonly used injury factor on the predicted REE. A retrospective chart review was performed on 28 patients. REE was measured using indirect calorimetry and compared with the Harris-Benedict and Cunningham equations, and an equation using type II diabetes as a factor. Statistical analyses used were paired t test, +/-95% confidence interval, and the Bland-Altman method. Measured average REE in trauma and burn patients was 21.37 +/- 5.26 and 21.81 +/- 3.35 kcal/kg/d, respectively. Harris-Benedict underpredicted REE in trauma and burn patients to the least extent, while the Cunningham equation underpredicted REE in both populations to the greatest extent. Using an injury factor of 1.2, Cunningham continued to underestimate REE in both populations, while the Harris-Benedict and Diabetic equations overpredicted REE in both populations. The measured average REE is significantly less than current guidelines. This finding suggests that a hypocaloric regimen is worth considering for ICU patients. Also, if an injury factor of 1.2 is incorporated in certain equations, patients may be given too many calories.

  9. Short-term sea ice forecasts with the RASM-ESRL coupled model: A testbed for improving simulations of ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions in the marginal ice zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solomon, A.; Cox, C. J.; Hughes, M.; Intrieri, J. M.; Persson, O. P. G.

    2015-12-01

    The dramatic decrease of Arctic sea-ice has led to a new Arctic sea-ice paradigm and to increased commercial activity in the Arctic Ocean. NOAA's mission to provide accurate and timely sea-ice forecasts, as explicitly outlined in the National Ocean Policy and the U.S. National Strategy for the Arctic Region, needs significant improvement across a range of time scales to improve safety for human activity. Unfortunately, the sea-ice evolution in the new Arctic involves the interaction of numerous physical processes in the atmosphere, ice, and ocean, some of which are not yet understood. These include atmospheric forcing of sea-ice movement through stress and stress deformation; atmospheric forcing of sea-ice melt and formation through energy fluxes; and ocean forcing of the atmosphere through new regions of seasonal heat release. Many of these interactions involve emerging complex processes that first need to be understood and then incorporated into forecast models in order to realize the goal of useful sea-ice forecasting. The underlying hypothesis for this study is that errors in simulations of "fast" atmospheric processes significantly impact the forecast of seasonal sea-ice retreat in summer and its advance in autumn in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). We therefore focus on short-term (0-20 day) ice-floe movement, the freeze-up and melt-back processes in the MIZ, and the role of storms in modulating stress and heat fluxes. This study uses a coupled ocean-atmosphere-seaice forecast model as a testbed to investigate; whether ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupling improves forecasts on subseasonal time scales, where systematic biases develop due to inadequate parameterizations (focusing on mixed-phase clouds and surface fluxes), how increased atmospheric resolution of synoptic features improves the forecasts, and how initialization of sea ice area and thickness and snow depth impacts the skill of the forecasts. Simulations are validated with measurements at pan-Arctic land

  10. Current Status and Future Plan of Arctic Sea Ice monitoring in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shin, J.; Park, J.

    2016-12-01

    Arctic sea ice is one of the most important parameters in climate. For monitoring of sea ice changes, the National Meteorological Satellite Center (NMSC) of Korea Metrological Administration has developed the "Arctic sea ice monitoring system" to retrieve the sea ice extent and surface roughness using microwave sensor data, and statistical prediction model for Arctic sea ice extent. This system has been implemented to the web site for real-time public service. The sea ice information can be retrieved using the spaceborne microwave sensor-Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/S). The sea ice information like sea ice extent, sea ice surface roughness, and predictive sea ice extent are produced weekly base since 2007. We also publish the "Analysis report of the Arctic sea ice" twice a year. We are trying to add more sea ice information into this system. Details of current status and future plan of Arctic sea ice monitoring and the methodology of the sea ice information retrievals will be presented in the meeting.

  11. A direct evidence of vibrationally delocalized response at ice surface.

    PubMed

    Ishiyama, Tatsuya; Morita, Akihiro

    2014-11-14

    Surface-specific vibrational spectroscopic responses at isotope diluted ice and amorphous ice are investigated by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations combined with quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics calculations. The intense response specific to the ordinary crystal ice surface is predicted to be significantly suppressed in the isotopically diluted and amorphous ices, demonstrating the vibrational delocalization at the ordinary ice surface. The collective vibration at the ice surface is also analyzed with varying temperature by the MD simulation.

  12. ICESat Observations of Arctic Sea Ice: A First Look

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kwok, Ron; Zwally, H. Jay; Yi, Dong-Hui

    2004-01-01

    Analysis of near-coincident ICESat and RADARSAT imagery shows that the retrieved elevations from the laser altimeter are sensitive to new openings (containing thin ice or open water) in the sea ice cover as well as to surface relief of old and first-year ice. The precision of the elevation estimates, measured over relatively flat sea ice, is approx. 2 cm Using the thickness of thin-ice in recent openings to estimate sea level references, we obtain the sea-ice free-board along the altimeter tracks. This step is necessitated by the large uncertainties in the time-varying sea surface topography compared to that required for accurate determination of free-board. Unknown snow depth introduces the largest uncertainty in the conversion of free-board to ice thickness. Surface roughness is also derived, for the first time, from the variability of successive elevation estimates along the altimeter track Overall, these ICESat measurements provide an unprecedented view of the Arctic Ocean ice cover at length scales at and above the spatial dimension of the altimeter footprint.

  13. Deterministic multi-zone ice accretion modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yamaguchi, K.; Hansman, R. John, Jr.; Kazmierczak, Michael

    1991-01-01

    The focus here is on a deterministic model of the surface roughness transition behavior of glaze ice. The initial smooth/rough transition location, bead formation, and the propagation of the transition location are analyzed. Based on the hypothesis that the smooth/rough transition location coincides with the laminar/turbulent boundary layer transition location, a multizone model is implemented in the LEWICE code. In order to verify the effectiveness of the model, ice accretion predictions for simple cylinders calculated by the multizone LEWICE are compared to experimental ice shapes. The glaze ice shapes are found to be sensitive to the laminar surface roughness and bead thickness parameters controlling the transition location, while the ice shapes are found to be insensitive to the turbulent surface roughness.

  14. ChIP-seq Accurately Predicts Tissue-Specific Activity of Enhancers

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Visel, Axel; Blow, Matthew J.; Li, Zirong

    2009-02-01

    A major yet unresolved quest in decoding the human genome is the identification of the regulatory sequences that control the spatial and temporal expression of genes. Distant-acting transcriptional enhancers are particularly challenging to uncover since they are scattered amongst the vast non-coding portion of the genome. Evolutionary sequence constraint can facilitate the discovery of enhancers, but fails to predict when and where they are active in vivo. Here, we performed chromatin immunoprecipitation with the enhancer-associated protein p300, followed by massively-parallel sequencing, to map several thousand in vivo binding sites of p300 in mouse embryonic forebrain, midbrain, and limb tissue. Wemore » tested 86 of these sequences in a transgenic mouse assay, which in nearly all cases revealed reproducible enhancer activity in those tissues predicted by p300 binding. Our results indicate that in vivo mapping of p300 binding is a highly accurate means for identifying enhancers and their associated activities and suggest that such datasets will be useful to study the role of tissue-specific enhancers in human biology and disease on a genome-wide scale.« less

  15. Experimental evidence for superionic water ice using shock compression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millot, Marius; Hamel, Sebastien; Rygg, J. Ryan; Celliers, Peter M.; Collins, Gilbert W.; Coppari, Federica; Fratanduono, Dayne E.; Jeanloz, Raymond; Swift, Damian C.; Eggert, Jon H.

    2018-03-01

    In stark contrast to common ice, Ih, water ice at planetary interior conditions has been predicted to become superionic with fast-diffusing (that is, liquid-like) hydrogen ions moving within a solid lattice of oxygen. Likely to constitute a large fraction of icy giant planets, this extraordinary phase has not been observed in the laboratory. Here, we report laser-driven shock-compression experiments on water ice VII. Using time-resolved optical pyrometry and laser velocimetry measurements as well as supporting density functional theory-molecular dynamics (DFT-MD) simulations, we document the shock equation of state of H2O to unprecedented extreme conditions and unravel thermodynamic signatures showing that ice melts near 5,000 K at 190 GPa. Optical reflectivity and absorption measurements also demonstrate the low electronic conductivity of ice, which, combined with previous measurements of the total electrical conductivity under reverberating shock compression, provides experimental evidence for superionic conduction in water ice at planetary interior conditions, verifying a 30-year-old prediction.

  16. On the Formation of Interstellar Water Ice: Constraints from a Search for Hydrogen Peroxide Ice in Molecular Clouds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, R. G.; Charnely, S. B.; Pendleton, Y. J.; Wright, C. M.; Maldoni, M. M.; Robinson, G.

    2011-01-01

    Recent surface chemistry experiments have shown that the hydrogenation of molecular oxygen on interstellar dust grains is a plausible formation mechanism, via hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), for the production of water (H2O) ice mantles in the dense interstellar medium. Theoretical chemistry models also predict the formation of a significant abundance of H2O2 ice in grain mantles by this route. At their upper limits, the predicted and experimental abundances are sufficiently high that H2O2 should be detectable in molecular cloud ice spectra. To investigate this further, laboratory spectra have been obtained for H2O2/H2O ice films between 2.5 and 200 micron, from 10 to 180 K, containing 3%, 30%, and 97% H2O2 ice. Integrated absorbances for all the absorption features in low-temperature H2O2 ice have been derived from these spectra. For identifying H2O2 ice, the key results are the presence of unique features near 3.5, 7.0, and 11.3 micron. Comparing the laboratory spectra with the spectra of a group of 24 protostars and field stars, all of which have strong H2O ice absorption bands, no absorption features are found that can definitely be identified with H2O2 ice. In the absence of definite H2O2 features, the H2O2 abundance is constrained by its possible contribution to the weak absorption feature near 3.47 micron found on the long-wavelength wing of the 3 micron H2O ice band. This gives an average upper limit for H2O2, as a percentage of H2O, of 9% +/- 4%. This is a strong constraint on parameters for surface chemistry experiments and dense cloud chemistry models.

  17. Evaluating the sensitivity of an ice sheet model to changes in bed elevation and inclusion of membrane stresses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Khroulev, Constantine

    2010-05-01

    To predict Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise in the next few centuries with some confidence, an accurate representation of its current state is crucial. Simulations of the present state of Greenland using the "Parallel Ice Sheet Model" (PISM) capture the essential flow features but overestimate the current volume by about 30%. Possible sources of error include (1) limited understanding of physical processes involved, (2) the choice of approximations made by the numerical model, (3) values of tunable parameters, and (4) uncertainties in boundary conditions. The response of an ice sheet model to given forcing contains the above mentioned error sources, with unknown weights. In this work we focus on a small subset, namely errors arising from uncertainties in bed elevation and whether or not membrane stresses are included in the stress balance. CReSIS provides recently updated bedrock maps for Greenland include high-resolution data for Jacobshavn Isbræ and Petermann Glacier. We present a four-way comparison between the original BEDMAP, the new CReSIS bedrock data, a non-sliding shallow ice model, and hybrid model which includes the shallow shelf approximation as a sliding law. Large gradients possibly found in high-resolution bedrock elevation are expected to make a hybrid model the more appropriate choice. To elucidate this question, runs are performed on a unprecedented high spatial resolution of 2km for the whole ice sheet. Finally, model predictions are evaluated against observed quantities such as surface velocities, ice thickness, and temperature profiles in bore holes using different metrics.

  18. A sensitivity analysis for a thermomechanical model of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baratelli, F.; Castellani, G.; Vassena, C.; Giudici, M.

    2012-04-01

    The outcomes of an ice sheet model depend on a number of parameters and physical quantities which are often estimated with large uncertainty, because of lack of sufficient experimental measurements in such remote environments. Therefore, the efforts to improve the accuracy of the predictions of ice sheet models by including more physical processes and interactions with atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere can be affected by the inaccuracy of the fundamental input data. A sensitivity analysis can help to understand which are the input data that most affect the different predictions of the model. In this context, a finite difference thermomechanical ice sheet model based on the Shallow-Ice Approximation (SIA) and on the Shallow-Shelf Approximation (SSA) has been developed and applied for the simulation of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves for the last 200 000 years. The sensitivity analysis of the model outcomes (e.g., the volume of the ice sheet and of the ice shelves, the basal melt rate of the ice sheet, the mean velocity of the Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves, the wet area at the base of the ice sheet) with respect to the model parameters (e.g., the basal sliding coefficient, the geothermal heat flux, the present-day surface accumulation and temperature, the mean ice shelves viscosity, the melt rate at the base of the ice shelves) has been performed by computing three synthetic numerical indices: two local sensitivity indices and a global sensitivity index. Local sensitivity indices imply a linearization of the model and neglect both non-linear and joint effects of the parameters. The global variance-based sensitivity index, instead, takes into account the complete variability of the input parameters but is usually conducted with a Monte Carlo approach which is computationally very demanding for non-linear complex models. Therefore, the global sensitivity index has been computed using a development of the model outputs in a

  19. Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Noecker, Cecilia; Schaefer, Krista; Zaccheo, Kelly; Yang, Yiding; Day, Judy; Ganusov, Vitaly V.

    2015-01-01

    Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1–2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the “standard” mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV). First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting) has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral dose. These results

  20. Improving medical decisions for incapacitated persons: does focusing on "accurate predictions" lead to an inaccurate picture?

    PubMed

    Kim, Scott Y H

    2014-04-01

    The Patient Preference Predictor (PPP) proposal places a high priority on the accuracy of predicting patients' preferences and finds the performance of surrogates inadequate. However, the quest to develop a highly accurate, individualized statistical model has significant obstacles. First, it will be impossible to validate the PPP beyond the limit imposed by 60%-80% reliability of people's preferences for future medical decisions--a figure no better than the known average accuracy of surrogates. Second, evidence supports the view that a sizable minority of persons may not even have preferences to predict. Third, many, perhaps most, people express their autonomy just as much by entrusting their loved ones to exercise their judgment than by desiring to specifically control future decisions. Surrogate decision making faces none of these issues and, in fact, it may be more efficient, accurate, and authoritative than is commonly assumed.

  1. Sea ice thickness derived from radar altimetry: achievements and future plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricker, R.; Hendricks, S.; Paul, S.; Kaleschke, L.; Tian-Kunze, X.

    2017-12-01

    The retrieval of Arctic sea ice thickness is one of the major objectives of the European CryoSat-2 radar altimeter mission and the 7-year long period of operation has produced an unprecedented record of monthly sea ice thickness information. We present CryoSat-2 results that show changes and variability of Arctic sea ice from the winter season 2010/2011 until fall 2017. CryoSat-2, however, was designed to observe thick perennial sea ice, while an accurate retrieval of thin seasonal sea ice is more challenging. We have therefore developed a method of completing and improving Arctic sea ice thickness information within the ESA SMOS+ Sea Ice project by merging CryoSat-2 and SMOS sea ice thickness retrievals. Using these satellite missions together overcomes several issues of single-mission retrievals and provides a more accurate and comprehensive view on the state of Arctic sea-ice thickness at higher temporal resolution. However, stand-alone CryoSat-2 observations can be used as reference data for the exploitation of older pulse-limited radar altimetry data sets over sea ice. In order to observe trends in sea ice thickness, it is required to minimize inter-mission biases between subsequent satellite missions. Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) on Sea Ice, a climate data record of sea ice thickness derived from satellite radar altimetry has been developed for both hemispheres, based on the 15-year (2002-2017) monthly retrievals from Envisat and CryoSat-2 and calibrated in the 2010-2012 overlap period. The next step in promoting the utilization of sea ice thickness information from radar altimetry is to provide products by a service that meets the requirements for climate applications and operational systems. This task will be pursued within a Copernicus Climate Change Service project (C3S). This framework also aims to include additional sensors such as onboard Sentinel-3 and we will show first results of Sentinel-3 Arctic sea-ice thickness. These

  2. Ice Streams as the Critical Link Between the Interior Ice Reservoir of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Global Climate System - a WISSARD Perspective (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tulaczyk, S. M.; Beem, L.; Walter, J. I.; Hossainzadeh, S.; Mankoff, K. D.

    2010-12-01

    Fast flowing ice streams represent crucial features of the Antarctic ice sheet because they provide discharge ‘valves’ for the interior ice reservoir and because their grounding lines are exposed to ocean thermal forcing. Even with no/little topographic control ice flow near the perimeter of a polar ice sheet self-organizes into discrete, fast-flowing ice streams. Within these features basal melting (i.e. lubrication for ice sliding) is sustained through elevated basal shear heating in a region of thin ice that would otherwise be characterized by basal freezing and slow ice motion. Because faster basal ice motion is typically associated with faster subglacial erosion, ice streams tend to localize themselves over time by carving troughs into underlying rocks and sediments. Debris generated by this erosional activity is carried to the continental shelf and/or continental slope where it may be deposited at very high rates, rivaling these associated with deposition by some of the largest rivers on Earth. In terms of their hydrologic and geological functions, Antarctic ice streams play pretty much the same role as rivers do on non-glaciated continents. However, understanding of their dynamics is still quite rudimentary, largely because of the relative inaccessibility of the key basal and marine boundaries of ice streams where pertinent measurements need to be made. The present elevated interest in predicting future contribution of Antarctica to global sea level changes is driving ambitious research programs aimed at scientific exploration of these poorly investigated environments that will play a key role in defining the response of the ice sheet to near future climate changes. We will review one of these programs, the Whillans Ice Stream Subglacial Access Research Drilling (WISSARD) with particular focus on its planned contributions to understanding of ice stream dynamics.

  3. NASA Team 2 Sea Ice Concentration Algorithm Retrieval Uncertainty

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brucker, Ludovic; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Markus, Thorsten; Ivanoff, Alvaro

    2014-01-01

    Satellite microwave radiometers are widely used to estimate sea ice cover properties (concentration, extent, and area) through the use of sea ice concentration (IC) algorithms. Rare are the algorithms providing associated IC uncertainty estimates. Algorithm uncertainty estimates are needed to assess accurately global and regional trends in IC (and thus extent and area), and to improve sea ice predictions on seasonal to interannual timescales using data assimilation approaches. This paper presents a method to provide relative IC uncertainty estimates using the enhanced NASA Team (NT2) IC algorithm. The proposed approach takes advantage of the NT2 calculations and solely relies on the brightness temperatures (TBs) used as input. NT2 IC and its associated relative uncertainty are obtained for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) TB. NT2 IC relative uncertainties estimated on a footprint-by-footprint swath-by-swath basis were averaged daily over each 12.5-km grid cell of the polar stereographic grid. For both hemispheres and throughout the year, the NT2 relative uncertainty is less than 5%. In the Southern Hemisphere, it is low in the interior ice pack, and it increases in the marginal ice zone up to 5%. In the Northern Hemisphere, areas with high uncertainties are also found in the high IC area of the Central Arctic. Retrieval uncertainties are greater in areas corresponding to NT2 ice types associated with deep snow and new ice. Seasonal variations in uncertainty show larger values in summer as a result of melt conditions and greater atmospheric contributions. Our analysis also includes an evaluation of the NT2 algorithm sensitivity to AMSR-E sensor noise. There is a 60% probability that the IC does not change (to within the computed retrieval precision of 1%) due to sensor noise, and the cumulated probability shows that there is a 90% chance that the IC varies by less than

  4. Quantifying Local Ablation Rates for the Greenland Ice Sheet Using Terrestrial LIDAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kershner, C. M.; Pitcher, L. H.; LeWinter, A.; Finnegan, D. C.; Overstreet, B. T.; Miège, C.; Cooper, M. G.; Smith, L. C.; Rennermalm, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    Quantifying accurate ice surface ablation or melt rates for the Greenland Ice Sheet is important for calibrating and validating surface mass balance models and constraining sea level rise estimates. Common practice is to monitor surface ablation at defined points by manually measuring ice surface lowering in relation to stakes inserted into the ice / snow. However, this method does not account for the effects of local topography, solar zenith angle, and local variations in ice surface albedo/impurities on ablation rates. To directly address these uncertainties, we use a commercially available terrestrial LIDAR scanner (TLS) to monitor daily melt rates in the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet for 7 consecutive days in July 2016. Each survey is registered to previous scans using retroreflective cylinders and is georeferenced using static GPS measurements. Bulk ablation will be calculated using multi-temporal differential LIDAR techniques, and difficulties in referencing scans and collecting high quality surveys in this dynamic environment will be discussed, as well as areas for future research. We conclude that this novel application of TLS technology provides a spatially accurate, higher fidelity measurements of ablation across a larger area with less interpolation and less time spent than using traditional manual point based methods alone. Furthermore, this sets the stage for direct calibration, validation and cross-comparison with existing airborne (e.g. NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper - ATM - onboard Operation IceBridge and NASA's Land, Vegetation & Ice Sensor - LVIS) and forthcoming spaceborne sensors (e.g. NASA's ICESat-2).

  5. Rapid and accurate prediction of degradant formation rates in pharmaceutical formulations using high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Darrington, Richard T; Jiao, Jim

    2004-04-01

    Rapid and accurate stability prediction is essential to pharmaceutical formulation development. Commonly used stability prediction methods include monitoring parent drug loss at intended storage conditions or initial rate determination of degradants under accelerated conditions. Monitoring parent drug loss at the intended storage condition does not provide a rapid and accurate stability assessment because often <0.5% drug loss is all that can be observed in a realistic time frame, while the accelerated initial rate method in conjunction with extrapolation of rate constants using the Arrhenius or Eyring equations often introduces large errors in shelf-life prediction. In this study, the shelf life prediction of a model pharmaceutical preparation utilizing sensitive high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC/MS) to directly quantitate degradant formation rates at the intended storage condition is proposed. This method was compared to traditional shelf life prediction approaches in terms of time required to predict shelf life and associated error in shelf life estimation. Results demonstrated that the proposed LC/MS method using initial rates analysis provided significantly improved confidence intervals for the predicted shelf life and required less overall time and effort to obtain the stability estimation compared to the other methods evaluated. Copyright 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

  6. Ice nucleation triggered by negative pressure.

    PubMed

    Marcolli, Claudia

    2017-11-30

    Homogeneous ice nucleation needs supercooling of more than 35 K to become effective. When pressure is applied to water, the melting and the freezing points both decrease. Conversely, melting and freezing temperatures increase under negative pressure, i.e. when water is stretched. This study presents an extrapolation of homogeneous ice nucleation temperatures from positive to negative pressures as a basis for further exploration of ice nucleation under negative pressure. It predicts that increasing negative pressure at temperatures below about 262 K eventually results in homogeneous ice nucleation while at warmer temperature homogeneous cavitation, i. e. bubble nucleation, dominates. Negative pressure occurs locally and briefly when water is stretched due to mechanical shock, sonic waves, or fragmentation. The occurrence of such transient negative pressure should suffice to trigger homogeneous ice nucleation at large supercooling in the absence of ice-nucleating surfaces. In addition, negative pressure can act together with ice-inducing surfaces to enhance their intrinsic ice nucleation efficiency. Dynamic ice nucleation can be used to improve properties and uniformity of frozen products by applying ultrasonic fields and might also be relevant for the freezing of large drops in rainclouds.

  7. Ice Crystal Icing Engine Testing in the NASA Glenn Research Center's Propulsion Systems Laboratory: Altitude Investigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oliver, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducted a full scale ice crystal icing turbofan engine test using an obsolete Allied Signal ALF502-R5 engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) at NASA Glenn Research Center. The test article used was the exact engine that experienced a loss of power event after the ingestion of ice crystals while operating at high altitude during a 1997 Honeywell flight test campaign investigating the turbofan engine ice crystal icing phenomena. The test plan included test points conducted at the known flight test campaign field event pressure altitude and at various pressure altitudes ranging from low to high throughout the engine operating envelope. The test article experienced a loss of power event at each of the altitudes tested. For each pressure altitude test point conducted the ambient static temperature was predicted using a NASA engine icing risk computer model for the given ambient static pressure while maintaining the engine speed.

  8. Potential flow analysis of glaze ice accretions on an airfoil

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaguli, R. J.

    1984-01-01

    The results of an analytical/experimental study of the flow fields about an airfoil with leading edge glaze ice accretion shapes are presented. Tests were conducted in the Icing Research Tunnel to measure surface pressure distributions and boundary layer separation reattachment characteristics on a general aviation wing section to which was affixed wooden ice shapes which approximated typical glaze ice accretions. Comparisons were made with predicted pressure distributions using current airfoil analysis codes as well as the Bristow mixed analysis/design airfoil panel code. The Bristow code was also used to predict the separation reattachment dividing streamline by inputting the appropriate experimental surface pressure distribution.

  9. Atmospheric icing of structures: Observations and simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ágústsson, H.; Elíasson, Á. J.; Thorsteins, E.; Rögnvaldsson, Ó.; Ólafsson, H.

    2012-04-01

    some of the icing may be due to freezing drizzle or wet snow instead of in-cloud icing of super-cooled droplets. In addition, the icing model (Makkonen) may not be accurate for the highest icing loads observed.

  10. Determination of Shed Ice Particle Size Using High Speed Digital Imaging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broughton, Howard; Owens, Jay; Sims, James J.; Bond, Thomas H.

    1996-01-01

    A full scale model of an aircraft engine inlet was tested at NASA Lewis Research Center's Icing Research Tunnel. Simulated natural ice sheds from the engine inlet lip were studied using high speed digital image acquisition and image analysis. Strategic camera placement integrated at the model design phase allowed the study of ice accretion on the inlet lip and the resulting shed ice particles at the aerodynamic interface plane at the rear of the inlet prior to engine ingestion. The resulting digital images were analyzed using commercial and proprietary software to determine the size of the ice particles that could potentially be ingested by the engine during a natural shedding event. A methodology was developed to calibrate the imaging system and insure consistent and accurate measurements of the ice particles for a wide range of icing conditions.

  11. A review of ice accretion data from a model rotor icing test and comparison with theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Britton, Randall K.; Bond, Thomas H.

    1991-01-01

    An experiment was conducted by the Helicopter Icing Consortium (HIC) in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) in which a 1/6 scale fuselage model of a UH-60A Black Hawk helicopter with a generic rotor was subjected to a wide range of icing conditions. The HIC consists of members from NASA, Bell Helicopter, Boeing Helicopter, McDonnell Douglas Helicopters, Sikorsky Aircraft, and Texas A&M University. Data was taken in the form of rotor torque, internal force balance measurements, blade strain gage loading, and two dimensional ice shape tracings. A review of the ice shape data is performed with special attention given to repeatability and correctness of trends in terms of radial variation, rotational speed, icing time, temperature, liquid water content, and volumetric median droplet size. Moreover, an indepth comparison between the experimental data and the analysis of NASA's ice accretion code LEWICE is given. Finally, conclusions are drawn as to the quality of the ice accretion data and the predictability of the data base as a whole. Recommendations are also given for improving data taking technique as well as potential future work.

  12. Use of SAR imagery and other remotely-sensed data in deriving ice information during a severe ice event on the Grand Banks (Newfoundland)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carsey, F. D.; Argus, S. D.

    1988-01-01

    Image data from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) are used to observe an ice compaction event off the East Coast of Newfoundland in spring, 1987. The information developed from sequential SAR observations is shown to do a remarkably effective job of describing the ice conditions; the difficult variable is the ice thickness which is found to be surprisingly large (2 to 4 times the thickness predictable from thermodynamic growth alone). It may be possible to model the ice thickness using SAR-derived ice motion.

  13. A Systems-Level Perspective on Engine Ice Accretion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    May, Ryan D.; Guo, Ten-Huei; Simon, Donald L.

    2013-01-01

    The accretion of ice in the compression system of commercial gas turbine engines operating in high ice water content conditions is a safety issue being studied by the aviation sector. While most of the research focuses on the underlying physics of ice accretion and the meteorological conditions in which accretion can occur, a systems-level perspective on the topic lends itself to potential near-term operational improvements. This work focuses on developing an accurate and reliable algorithm for detecting the accretion of ice in the low pressure compressor of a generic 40,000 lbf thrust class engine. The algorithm uses only the two shaft speed sensors and works regardless of engine age, operating condition, and power level. In a 10,000-case Monte Carlo simulation, the detection approach was found to have excellent capability at determining ice accretion from sensor noise with detection occurring when ice blocks an average of 6.8% of the low pressure compressor area. Finally, an initial study highlights a potential mitigation strategy that uses the existing engine actuators to raise the temperature in the low pressure compressor in an effort to reduce the rate at which ice accretes.

  14. Kinetic approach to degradation mechanisms in polymer solar cells and their accurate lifetime predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arshad, Muhammad Azeem; Maaroufi, AbdelKrim

    2018-07-01

    A beginning has been made in the present study regarding the accurate lifetime predictions of polymer solar cells. Certain reservations about the conventionally employed temperature accelerated lifetime measurements test for its unworthiness of predicting reliable lifetimes of polymer solar cells are brought into light. Critical issues concerning the accelerated lifetime testing include, assuming reaction mechanism instead of determining it, and relying solely on the temperature acceleration of a single property of material. An advanced approach comprising a set of theoretical models to estimate the accurate lifetimes of polymer solar cells is therefore suggested in order to suitably alternate the accelerated lifetime testing. This approach takes into account systematic kinetic modeling of various possible polymer degradation mechanisms under natural weathering conditions. The proposed kinetic approach is substantiated by its applications on experimental aging data-sets of polymer solar materials/solar cells including, P3HT polymer film, bulk heterojunction (MDMO-PPV:PCBM) and dye-sensitized solar cells. Based on the suggested approach, an efficacious lifetime determination formula for polymer solar cells is derived and tested on dye-sensitized solar cells. Some important merits of the proposed method are also pointed out and its prospective applications are discussed.

  15. Marine evidence of a deconvolving Antarctic Ice Sheet during post-LGM retreat of the Ross Sea sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prothro, L. O.; Yokoyama, Y.; Simkins, L. M.; Anderson, J. B.; Majewski, W.; Yamane, M.; Ohkouchi, N.

    2017-12-01

    Predictive models of ice sheet and sea level change are dependent on observational data of ice-sheet behavior for model testing and tuning. The geologic record contains a wealth of information about ice-sheet dynamics, with fewer logistical, spatial, and temporal limitations than are involved in data acquisition along contemporary ice margins. However, past ice-sheet behavior is still largely uncertain or contested due to issues with obtaining meaningful radiocarbon dates. We minimize bias from glacially-reworked carbon and limitations from unknown geomorphic context and uncertainty in sediment facies identification by using careful sedimentary analyses within a geomorphic framework, as well as selection of appropriate dating methods. Our study area, the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica, is the primary drainage outlet for 25% of the continent's grounded ice. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the low-profile, marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and the steeper profile, largely land-based East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) converged in the Ross Sea to flow out to or near the continental shelf edge. Geomorphic and sedimentary data reveal that during their subsequent retreat to form the Ross Sea Embayment, the two ice sheets behaved differently, with the WAIS rapidly retreating tens of kilometers followed by extended pauses, while the EAIS retreated steadily, with shorter (decadal- to century-long) pauses. This behavior leads us to believe that the two ice sheets may have contributed diachronously to sea level. By acquiring accurate timing of grounding line retreat, we are able to calculate volumes of ice lost throughout deglaciation, as well as associated sea level contributions. In addition, we attempt to rectify the contradicting marine and terrestrial interpretations of retreat patterns from the Ross Sea continental shelf.

  16. The NASA Altitude Wind Tunnel (AWT): Its role in advanced icing research and development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blaha, B. J.; Shaw, R. J.

    1985-01-01

    Currently experimental aircraft icing research is severely hampered by limitations of ground icing simulation facilities. Existing icing facilities do not have the size, speed, altitude, and icing environment simulation capabilities to allow accurate studies to be made of icing problems occurring for high speed fixed wing aircraft and rotorcraft. Use of the currently dormant NASA Lewis Altitude Wind Tunnel (AWT), as a proposed high speed propulsion and adverse weather facility, would allow many such problems to be studied. The characteristics of the AWT related to adverse weather simulation and in particular to icing simulation are discussed, and potential icing research programs using the AWT are also included.

  17. Global ice sheet/RSL simulations using the higher-order Ice Sheet System Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larour, E. Y.; Ivins, E. R.; Adhikari, S.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Morlighem, M.

    2017-12-01

    Relative sea-level rise is driven by processes that are intimately linked to the evolution ofglacial areas and ice sheets in particular. So far, most Earth System models capable of projecting theevolution of RSL on decadal to centennial time scales have relied on offline interactions between RSL andice sheets. In particular, grounding line and calving front dynamics have not been modeled in a way that istightly coupled with Elasto-Static Adjustment (ESA) and/or Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Here, we presenta new simulation of the entire Earth System in which both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are tightly coupledto an RSL model that includes both ESA and GIA at resolutions and time scales compatible with processes suchas grounding line dynamics for Antarctica ice shelves and calving front dynamics for Greenland marine-terminatingglaciers. The simulations rely on the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and show the impact of higher-orderice flow dynamics and coupling feedbacks between ice flow and RSL. We quantify the exact impact of ESA andGIA inclusion on grounding line evolution for large ice shelves such as the Ronne and Ross ice shelves, as well asthe Agasea Embayment ice streams, and demonstate how offline vs online RSL simulations diverge in the long run,and the consequences for predictions of sea-level rise.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory undera contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

  18. Water Droplet Impingement on Simulated Glaze, Mixed, and Rime Ice Accretions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papadakis, Michael; Rachman, Arief; Wong, See-Cheuk; Yeong, Hsiung-Wei; Hung, Kuohsing E.; Vu, Giao T.; Bidwell, Colin S.

    2007-01-01

    Water droplet impingement data were obtained at the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) for a 36-in. chord NACA 23012 airfoil with and without simulated ice using a dye-tracer method. The simulated ice shapes were defined with the NASA Glenn LEWICE 2.2 ice accretion program and including one rime, four mixed and five glaze ice shapes. The impingement experiments were performed with spray clouds having median volumetric diameters of 20, 52, 111, 154, and 236 micron. Comparisons to the experimental data were generated which showed good agreement for the rime and mixed shapes at lower drop sizes. For larger drops sizes LEWICE 2.2 over predicted the collection efficiencies due to droplet splashing effects which were not modeled in the program. Also for the more complex glaze ice shapes interpolation errors resulted in the over prediction of collection efficiencies in cove or shadow regions of ice shapes.

  19. Improved method for sea ice age computation based on combination of sea ice drift and concentration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korosov, Anton; Rampal, Pierre; Lavergne, Thomas; Aaboe, Signe

    2017-04-01

    propose an improved algorithm for sea ice age computation based on combination of sea ice drift and concentration, both derived from satellite measurements. The base sea ice drift product is from the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (EUMETSAT OSI-SAF, Lavergne et al., 2011). This operational product was recently upgraded to also process ice drift during the summer season [http://osisaf.met.no/]. . The Sea Ice Concentration product from the ESA Sea Ice Climate Change Initiative (ESA SI CCI) project is used to adjust the partial concentrations at every advection step [http://esa-cci.nersc.no/]. Each grid cell is characterised by its partial concentration of water and ice of different ages. Also, sea ice convergence and divergence are used to realistically adjust the ratio of young ice / multi year ice. Comparison of results from this new algorithm with results derived from drifting ice buoys deployed in 2013 - 2016 demonstrates clear improvement in the ice age estimation. The spatial distribution of sea ice age in the new product compares better to the Sea Ice Type derived from satellite passive microwave and scatterometer measurements, both with regard to the decreased patchiness and the shape. The new ice age algorithm is developed in the context of the ESA CCI, and is designed for production of more accurate sea ice age climate data records in the future.

  20. Ice Shelf-Ocean Interactions Near Ice Rises and Ice Rumples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, M. A.; Rückamp, M.; Kleiner, T.

    2013-12-01

    The stability of ice shelves depends on the existence of embayments and is largely influenced by ice rises and ice rumples, which act as 'pinning-points' for ice shelf movement. Of additional critical importance are interactions between ice shelves and the water masses underlying them in ice shelf cavities, particularly melting and refreezing processes. The present study aims to elucidate the role of ice rises and ice rumples in the context of climate change impacts on Antarctic ice shelves. However, due to their smaller spatial extent, ice rumples react more sensitively to climate change than ice rises. Different forcings are at work and need to be considered separately as well as synergistically. In order to address these issues, we have decided to deal with the following three issues explicitly: oceanographic-, cryospheric and general topics. In so doing, we paid particular attention to possible interrelationships and feedbacks in a coupled ice-shelf-ocean system. With regard to oceanographic issues, we have applied the ocean circulation model ROMBAX to ocean water masses adjacent to and underneath a number of idealized ice shelf configurations: wide and narrow as well as laterally restrained and unrestrained ice shelves. Simulations were performed with and without small ice rises located close to the calving front. For larger configurations, the impact of the ice rises on melt rates at the ice shelf base is negligible, while for smaller configurations net melting rates at the ice-shelf base differ by a factor of up to eight depending on whether ice rises are considered or not. We employed the thermo-coupled ice flow model TIM-FD3 to simulate the effects of several ice rises and one ice rumple on the dynamics of ice shelf flow. We considered the complete un-grounding of the ice shelf in order to investigate the effect of pinning points of different characteristics (interior or near calving front, small and medium sized) on the resulting flow and stress fields

  1. Evaluation of constant-Weber-number scaling for icing tests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, David N.

    1996-01-01

    Previous studies showed that for conditions simulating an aircraft encountering super-cooled water droplets the droplets may splash before freezing. Other surface effects dependent on the water surface tension may also influence the ice accretion process. Consequently, the Weber number appears to be important in accurately scaling ice accretion. A scaling method which uses a constant-Weber-number approach has been described previously; this study provides an evaluation of this scaling method. Tests are reported on cylinders of 2.5 to 15-cm diameter and NACA 0012 airfoils with chords of 18 to 53 cm in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). The larger models were used to establish reference ice shapes, the scaling method was applied to determine appropriate scaled test conditions using the smaller models, and the ice shapes were compared. Icing conditions included warm glaze, horn glaze and mixed. The smallest size scaling attempted was 1/3, and scale and reference ice shapes for both cylinders and airfoils indicated that the constant-Weber-number scaling method was effective for the conditions tested.

  2. Modeling methodology for the accurate and prompt prediction of symptomatic events in chronic diseases.

    PubMed

    Pagán, Josué; Risco-Martín, José L; Moya, José M; Ayala, José L

    2016-08-01

    Prediction of symptomatic crises in chronic diseases allows to take decisions before the symptoms occur, such as the intake of drugs to avoid the symptoms or the activation of medical alarms. The prediction horizon is in this case an important parameter in order to fulfill the pharmacokinetics of medications, or the time response of medical services. This paper presents a study about the prediction limits of a chronic disease with symptomatic crises: the migraine. For that purpose, this work develops a methodology to build predictive migraine models and to improve these predictions beyond the limits of the initial models. The maximum prediction horizon is analyzed, and its dependency on the selected features is studied. A strategy for model selection is proposed to tackle the trade off between conservative but robust predictive models, with respect to less accurate predictions with higher horizons. The obtained results show a prediction horizon close to 40min, which is in the time range of the drug pharmacokinetics. Experiments have been performed in a realistic scenario where input data have been acquired in an ambulatory clinical study by the deployment of a non-intrusive Wireless Body Sensor Network. Our results provide an effective methodology for the selection of the future horizon in the development of prediction algorithms for diseases experiencing symptomatic crises. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Relationship between Physiological Off-Ice Testing, On-Ice Skating, and Game Performance in Division I Women's Ice Hockey Players.

    PubMed

    Boland, Michelle; Miele, Emily M; Delude, Katie

    2017-10-07

    The purpose was to identify off-ice testing variables that correlate to skating and game performance in Division I collegiate women ice hockey players. Twenty female, forward and defensive players (19.95 ± 1.35 yr) were assessed for weight, height, percent fat mass (%FAT), bone mineral density, predicted one repetition maximum (RM) absolute and relative (REL%) bench press (BP) and hex bar deadlift (HDL), lower body explosive power, anaerobic power, countermovement vertical jump (CMJ), maximum inspiratory pressure (MIP), and on-ice repeated skate sprint (RSS) performance. The on-ice RSS test included 6 timed 85.6 m sprints with participants wearing full hockey equipment; fastest time (FT), average time (AT) and fatigue index (FI) for the first length skate (FLS; 10 m) and total length skate (TLS; 85.6 m) were used for analysis. Game performance was evaluated with game statistics: goals, assists, points, plus-minus, and shots on goal (SOG). Correlation coefficients were used to determine relationships. Percent fat mass was positively correlated (p < 0.05) with FLS-FI and TLS-AT; TLS-FT was negatively correlated with REL%HDL; BP-RM was negatively correlated with FLS-FT and FLS-AT; MIP positively correlated with assists, points, and SOG; FLS-AT negatively correlated with assists. Game performance in women ice hockey players may be enhanced by greater MIP, repeat acceleration ability, and mode-specific training. Faster skating times were associated with lower %FAT. Skating performance in women ice hockey players may be enhanced by improving body composition, anaerobic power, and both lower and upper body strength in off-ice training.

  4. A comparison of selected models for estimating cable icing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McComber, Pierre; Druez, Jacques; Laflamme, Jean

    In many cold climate countries, it is becoming increasingly important to monitor transmission line icing. Indeed, by knowing in advance of localized danger for icing overloads, electric utilities can take measures in time to prevent generalized failure of the power transmission network. Recently in Canada, a study was made to compare the estimation of a few icing models working from meteorological data in estimating ice loads for freezing rain events. The models tested were using only standard meteorological parameters, i.e. wind speed and direction, temperature and precipitation rate. This study has shown that standard meteorological parameters can only achieve very limited accuracy, especially for longer icing events. However, with the help of an additional instrument monitoring the icing rate intensity, a significant improvement in model prediction might be achieved. The icing rate meter (IRM) which counts icing and de-icing cycles per unit time on a standard probe can be used to estimate the icing intensity. A cable icing estimation is then made by taking into consideration the accretion size, temperature, wind speed and direction, and precipitation rate. In this paper, a comparison is made between the predictions of two previously tested models (one obtained and the other reconstructed from their description in the public literature) and of a model based on the icing rate meter readings. The models are tested against nineteen events recorded on an icing test line at Mt. Valin, Canada, during the winter season 1991-1992. These events are mostly rime resulting from in-cloud icing. However, freezing rain and wet snow events were also recorded. Results indicate that a significant improvement in the estimation is attained by using the icing rate meter data together with the other standard meteorological parameters.

  5. Glacier-derived permafrost ground ice, Bylot Island, Nunavut

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coulombe, S.; Fortier, D.; Lacelle, D.; Godin, E.; Veillette, A.

    2014-12-01

    Massive icy bodies are important components of permafrost geosystems. In situ freezing of water in the ground by ice-segregation processes forms most of these icy bodies. Other hypotheses for the origin of massive ice include the burial of ice (e.g. glacier, snow, lake, river, sea). The analysis of ground-ice characteristics can give numerous clues about the geomorphologic processes and the thermal conditions at the time when permafrost developed. Massive underground ice therefore shows a great potential as a natural archive of the earth's past climate. Identifying the origin of massive ice is a challenge for permafrost science since the different types of massive ice remain difficult to distinguish on the sole basis of field observations. There is actually no clear method to accurately assess the origin of massive ice and identification criteria need to be defined. The present study uses physico-chemical techniques to characterize buried glacier ice observed on Bylot Island, Nunavut. Combined to the analysis of cryostratigraphy, massive-ice cores crystallography and high-resolution imagery of the internal structure of the ice cores were obtained using micro-computed tomography techniques. These techniques are well suited for detailed descriptions (shape, size, orientation) of crystals, gas inclusions and sediment inclusions. Oxygen and hydrogen isotopes ratios of massive-ice cores were also obtained using common equilibrium technique. Preliminary results suggest the occurrence of two types of buried massive-ice of glacial origin similar to those found on contemporary glaciers: 1) Englacial ice: clear to whitish ice, with large crystals (cm) and abundant gas bubbles at crystal intersections; 2) Basal glacier ice: ice-rich, banded, micro-suspended to suspended cryostructures and ice-rich lenticular to layered cryostructures, with small ice crystals (mm) and a few disseminated gas bubbles. Glacier-derived permafrost contains antegenetic ice, which is ice that

  6. Accurate prediction of interfacial residues in two-domain proteins using evolutionary information: implications for three-dimensional modeling.

    PubMed

    Bhaskara, Ramachandra M; Padhi, Amrita; Srinivasan, Narayanaswamy

    2014-07-01

    With the preponderance of multidomain proteins in eukaryotic genomes, it is essential to recognize the constituent domains and their functions. Often function involves communications across the domain interfaces, and the knowledge of the interacting sites is essential to our understanding of the structure-function relationship. Using evolutionary information extracted from homologous domains in at least two diverse domain architectures (single and multidomain), we predict the interface residues corresponding to domains from the two-domain proteins. We also use information from the three-dimensional structures of individual domains of two-domain proteins to train naïve Bayes classifier model to predict the interfacial residues. Our predictions are highly accurate (∼85%) and specific (∼95%) to the domain-domain interfaces. This method is specific to multidomain proteins which contain domains in at least more than one protein architectural context. Using predicted residues to constrain domain-domain interaction, rigid-body docking was able to provide us with accurate full-length protein structures with correct orientation of domains. We believe that these results can be of considerable interest toward rational protein and interaction design, apart from providing us with valuable information on the nature of interactions. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Thermodynamic and Dynamic Aspects of Ice Nucleation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barahona, Donifan

    2018-01-01

    It is known that ice nucleating particles (INP) immersed within supercooled droplets promote the formation of ice. Common theoretical models used to represent this process assume that the immersed particle lowers the work of ice nucleation without significantly affecting the dynamics of water in the vicinity of the particle. This is contrary to evidence showing that immersed surfaces significantly affect the viscosity and diffusivity of vicinal water. To study how this may affect ice formation this work introduces a model linking the ice nucleation rate to the modification of the dynamics and thermodynamics of vicinal water by immersed particles. It is shown that INP that significantly reduce the work of ice nucleation also pose strong limitations to the growth of the nascent ice germs. This leads to the onset of a new ice nucleation regime, called spinodal ice nucleation, where the dynamics of ice germ growth instead of the ice germ size determines the nucleation rate. Nucleation in this regime is characterized by an enhanced sensitivity to particle area and cooling rate. Comparison of the predicted ice nucleation rate against experimental measurements for a diverse set of species relevant to cloud formation suggests that spinodal ice nucleation may be common in nature.

  8. The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fürst, Johannes Jakob; Durand, Gaël; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Tavard, Laure; Rankl, Melanie; Braun, Matthias; Gagliardini, Olivier

    2016-05-01

    The floating ice shelves along the seaboard of the Antarctic ice sheet restrain the outflow of upstream grounded ice. Removal of these ice shelves, as shown by past ice-shelf recession and break-up, accelerates the outflow, which adds to sea-level rise. A key question in predicting future outflow is to quantify the extent of calving that might precondition other dynamic consequences and lead to loss of ice-shelf restraint. Here we delineate frontal areas that we label as `passive shelf ice’ and that can be removed without major dynamic implications, with contrasting results across the continent. The ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas have limited or almost no `passive’ portion, which implies that further retreat of current ice-shelf fronts will yield important dynamic consequences. This region is particularly vulnerable as ice shelves have been thinning at high rates for two decades and as upstream grounded ice rests on a backward sloping bed, a precondition to marine ice-sheet instability. In contrast to these ice shelves, Larsen C Ice Shelf, in the Weddell Sea, exhibits a large `passive’ frontal area, suggesting that the imminent calving of a vast tabular iceberg will be unlikely to instantly produce much dynamic change.

  9. Synoptic versus regional causes of icing on wind turbines at an exposed wind farm site in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weissinger, Maximilian; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Dorninger, Manfred; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Ice accretion on wind turbine blades can lead to significant power production loss or even permanent structural damage on the turbine. With the ongoing construction of wind farms at sites with increased icing potential in cold climates, accurate icing predictions are needed to optimise power plant operation. To this end, the frequency of occurrence and the causes of meteorological icing need to be better understood. The project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative, aims to improve icing forecasts through measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. The project focuses on a wind farm site near Ellern, Germany, located on the Hunsrück, a hilly terrain rising above the surrounding plain by 200-300 metres. Production data from the last three winters show that icing events tend to occur more often at the wind turbines on top of the highest hills. The present study aims to investigate historical cases of wind turbine icing and their meteorological causes at the Ellern wind farm. The data available consists of a three-year period (2013-2016) of operational data from the Ellern wind farm as well as meteorological measurements at nearby stations operated by the German Weather Service (DWD). In addition, radiosondes and weather charts are taken into account. The main objective of this work is, first, to link the local and regional weather conditions to larger-scale weather patterns and prevailing air masses, and second, to determine the types of icing (in-cloud vs. freezing precipation). Results show that in most icing cases the cloud base height was below the hub height while the temperature was just below the freezing point. Precipitation was absent in most cases. This suggests that most of the observed icing events were due to in-cloud icing. Icing conditions occurred often (but not exclusively) under specific synoptic-scale weather conditions, such as north-westerly flow advecting maritime polar air masses to Central

  10. [Tail Plane Icing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    The Aviation Safety Program initiated by NASA in 1997 has put greater emphasis in safety related research activities. Ice-contaminated-tailplane stall (ICTS) has been identified by the NASA Lewis Icing Technology Branch as an important activity for aircraft safety related research. The ICTS phenomenon is characterized as a sudden, often uncontrollable aircraft nose- down pitching moment, which occurs due to increased angle-of-attack of the horizontal tailplane resulting in tailplane stall. Typically, this phenomenon occurs when lowering the flaps during final approach while operating in or recently departing from icing conditions. Ice formation on the tailplane leading edge can reduce tailplane angle-of-attack range and cause flow separation resulting in a significant reduction or complete loss of aircraft pitch control. In 1993, the Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) and NASA embarked upon a four-year research program to address the problem of tailplane stall and to quantify the effect of tailplane ice accretion on aircraft performance and handling characteristics. The goals of this program, which was completed in March 1998, were to collect aerodynamic data for an aircraft tail with and without ice contamination and to develop analytical methods for predicting the effects of tailplane ice contamination. Extensive dry air and icing tunnel tests which resulted in a database of the aerodynamic effects associated with tailplane ice contamination. Although the FAA/NASA tailplane icing program generated some answers regarding ice-contaminated-tailplane stall (ICTS) phenomena, NASA researchers have found many open questions that warrant further investigation into ICTS. In addition, several aircraft manufacturers have expressed interest in a second research program to expand the database to other tail configurations and to develop experimental and computational methodologies for evaluating the ICTS phenomenon. In 1998, the icing branch at NASA Lewis initiated a second

  11. Enhanced ice sheet melting driven by volcanic eruptions during the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Muschitiello, Francesco; Pausata, Francesco S R; Lea, James M; Mair, Douglas W F; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2017-10-24

    Volcanic eruptions can impact the mass balance of ice sheets through changes in climate and the radiative properties of the ice. Yet, empirical evidence highlighting the sensitivity of ancient ice sheets to volcanism is scarce. Here we present an exceptionally well-dated annual glacial varve chronology recording the melting history of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet at the end of the last deglaciation (∼13,200-12,000 years ago). Our data indicate that abrupt ice melting events coincide with volcanogenic aerosol emissions recorded in Greenland ice cores. We suggest that enhanced ice sheet runoff is primarily associated with albedo effects due to deposition of ash sourced from high-latitude volcanic eruptions. Climate and snowpack mass-balance simulations show evidence for enhanced ice sheet runoff under volcanically forced conditions despite atmospheric cooling. The sensitivity of past ice sheets to volcanic ashfall highlights the need for an accurate coupling between atmosphere and ice sheet components in climate models.

  12. Evaluation of selected methods for determining streamflow during periods of ice effect

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Melcher, Norwood B.; Walker, J.F.

    1992-01-01

    Seventeen methods for estimating ice-affected streamflow are evaluated for potential use with the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station network. The methods evaluated were identified by written responses from U.S. Geological Survey field offices and by a comprehensive literature search. The methods selected and techniques used for applying the methods are described in this report. The methods are evaluated by comparing estimated results with data collected at three streamflow-gaging stations in Iowa during the winter of 1987-88. Discharge measurements were obtained at 1- to 5-day intervals during the ice-affected periods at the three stations to define an accurate baseline record. Discharge records were compiled for each method based on data available, assuming a 6-week field schedule. The methods are classified into two general categories-subjective and analytical--depending on whether individual judgment is necessary for method application. On the basis of results of the evaluation for the three Iowa stations, two of the subjective methods (discharge ratio and hydrographic-and-climatic comparison) were more accurate than the other subjective methods and approximately as accurate as the best analytical method. Three of the analytical methods (index velocity, adjusted rating curve, and uniform flow) could potentially be used at streamflow-gaging stations, where the need for accurate ice-affected discharge estimates justifies the expense of collecting additional field data. One analytical method (ice-adjustment factor) may be appropriate for use at stations with extremely stable stage-discharge ratings and measuring sections. Further research is needed to refine the analytical methods. The discharge-ratio and multiple-regression methods produce estimates of streamflow for varying ice conditions using information obtained from the existing U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging network.

  13. Forced convective melting at an evolving ice-water interface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramudu, Eshwan; Hirsh, Benjamin; Olson, Peter; Gnanadesikan, Anand

    2015-11-01

    The intrusion of warm Circumpolar Deep Water into the ocean cavity between the base of ice shelves and the sea bed in Antarctica causes melting at the ice shelves' basal surface, producing a turbulent melt plume. We conduct a series of laboratory experiments to investigate how the presence of forced convection (turbulent mixing) changes the delivery of heat to the ice-water interface. We also develop a theoretical model for the heat balance of the system that can be used to predict the change in ice thickness with time. In cases of turbulent mixing, the heat balance includes a term for turbulent heat transfer that depends on the friction velocity and an empirical coefficient. We obtain a new value for this coefficient by comparing the modeled ice thickness against measurements from a set of nine experiments covering one order of magnitude of Reynolds numbers. Our results are consistent with the altimetry-inferred melting rate under Antarctic ice shelves and can be used in climate models to predict their disintegration. This work was supported by NSF grant EAR-110371.

  14. Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Heimbach, Patrick

    2016-02-06

    A main research objectives of PISCEES is the development of formal methods for quantifying uncertainties in ice sheet modeling. Uncertainties in simulating and projecting mass loss from the polar ice sheets arise primarily from initial conditions, surface and basal boundary conditions, and model parameters. In general terms, two main chains of uncertainty propagation may be identified: 1. inverse propagation of observation and/or prior onto posterior control variable uncertainties; 2. forward propagation of prior or posterior control variable uncertainties onto those of target output quantities of interest (e.g., climate indices or ice sheet mass loss). A related goal is the developmentmore » of computationally efficient methods for producing initial conditions for an ice sheet that are close to available present-day observations and essentially free of artificial model drift, which is required in order to be useful for model projections (“initialization problem”). To be of maximum value, such optimal initial states should be accompanied by “useful” uncertainty estimates that account for the different sources of uncerainties, as well as the degree to which the optimum state is constrained by available observations. The PISCEES proposal outlined two approaches for quantifying uncertainties. The first targets the full exploration of the uncertainty in model projections with sampling-based methods and a workflow managed by DAKOTA (the main delivery vehicle for software developed under QUEST). This is feasible for low-dimensional problems, e.g., those with a handful of global parameters to be inferred. This approach can benefit from derivative/adjoint information, but it is not necessary, which is why it often referred to as “non-intrusive”. The second approach makes heavy use of derivative information from model adjoints to address quantifying uncertainty in high-dimensions (e.g., basal boundary conditions in ice sheet models). The use of local gradient

  15. Validation of NASA Thermal Ice Protection Computer Codes. Part 1; Program Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Dean; Bond, Thomas; Sheldon, David; Wright, William; Langhals, Tammy; Al-Khalil, Kamel; Broughton, Howard

    1996-01-01

    The Icing Technology Branch at NASA Lewis has been involved in an effort to validate two thermal ice protection codes developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center. LEWICE/Thermal (electrothermal deicing & anti-icing), and ANTICE (hot-gas & electrothermal anti-icing). The Thermal Code Validation effort was designated as a priority during a 1994 'peer review' of the NASA Lewis Icing program, and was implemented as a cooperative effort with industry. During April 1996, the first of a series of experimental validation tests was conducted in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel(IRT). The purpose of the April 96 test was to validate the electrothermal predictive capabilities of both LEWICE/Thermal, and ANTICE. A heavily instrumented test article was designed and fabricated for this test, with the capability of simulating electrothermal de-icing and anti-icing modes of operation. Thermal measurements were then obtained over a range of test conditions, for comparison with analytical predictions. This paper will present an overview of the test, including a detailed description of: (1) the validation process; (2) test article design; (3) test matrix development; and (4) test procedures. Selected experimental results will be presented for de-icing and anti-icing modes of operation. Finally, the status of the validation effort at this point will be summarized. Detailed comparisons between analytical predictions and experimental results are contained in the following two papers: 'Validation of NASA Thermal Ice Protection Computer Codes: Part 2- The Validation of LEWICE/Thermal' and 'Validation of NASA Thermal Ice Protection Computer Codes: Part 3-The Validation of ANTICE'

  16. Do dual-route models accurately predict reading and spelling performance in individuals with acquired alexia and agraphia?

    PubMed

    Rapcsak, Steven Z; Henry, Maya L; Teague, Sommer L; Carnahan, Susan D; Beeson, Pélagie M

    2007-06-18

    Coltheart and co-workers [Castles, A., Bates, T. C., & Coltheart, M. (2006). John Marshall and the developmental dyslexias. Aphasiology, 20, 871-892; Coltheart, M., Rastle, K., Perry, C., Langdon, R., & Ziegler, J. (2001). DRC: A dual route cascaded model of visual word recognition and reading aloud. Psychological Review, 108, 204-256] have demonstrated that an equation derived from dual-route theory accurately predicts reading performance in young normal readers and in children with reading impairment due to developmental dyslexia or stroke. In this paper, we present evidence that the dual-route equation and a related multiple regression model also accurately predict both reading and spelling performance in adult neurological patients with acquired alexia and agraphia. These findings provide empirical support for dual-route theories of written language processing.

  17. Cyclone-induced rapid creation of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Zhaomin; Turner, John; Sun, Bo; Li, Bingrui; Liu, Chengyan

    2014-01-01

    Two polar vessels, Akademik Shokalskiy and Xuelong, were trapped by thick sea ice in the Antarctic coastal region just to the west of 144°E and between 66.5°S and 67°S in late December 2013. This event demonstrated the rapid establishment of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions on synoptic time scales. The event was associated with cyclones that developed at lower latitudes. Near the event site, cyclone-enhanced strong southeasterly katabatic winds drove large westward drifts of ice floes. In addition, the cyclones also gave southward ice drift. The arrival and grounding of Iceberg B9B in Commonwealth Bay in March 2011 led to the growth of fast ice around it, forming a northward protruding barrier. This barrier blocked the westward ice drift and hence aided sea ice consolidation on its eastern side. Similar cyclone-induced events have occurred at this site in the past after the grounding of Iceberg B9B. Future events may be predictable on synoptic time scales, if cyclone-induced strong wind events can be predicted. PMID:24937550

  18. Intermolecular potentials and the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Shvab, I.; Sadus, Richard J., E-mail: rsadus@swin.edu.au

    2013-11-21

    The ability of intermolecular potentials to correctly predict the thermodynamic properties of liquid water at a density of 0.998 g/cm{sup 3} for a wide range of temperatures (298–650 K) and pressures (0.1–700 MPa) is investigated. Molecular dynamics simulations are reported for the pressure, thermal pressure coefficient, thermal expansion coefficient, isothermal and adiabatic compressibilities, isobaric and isochoric heat capacities, and Joule-Thomson coefficient of liquid water using the non-polarizable SPC/E and TIP4P/2005 potentials. The results are compared with both experiment data and results obtained from the ab initio-based Matsuoka-Clementi-Yoshimine non-additive (MCYna) [J. Li, Z. Zhou, and R. J. Sadus, J. Chem. Phys.more » 127, 154509 (2007)] potential, which includes polarization contributions. The data clearly indicate that both the SPC/E and TIP4P/2005 potentials are only in qualitative agreement with experiment, whereas the polarizable MCYna potential predicts some properties within experimental uncertainty. This highlights the importance of polarizability for the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water, particularly at temperatures beyond 298 K.« less

  19. Numerical Implementation of Ice Rheology for Europa's Shell

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barr, A. C.; Pappalardo, R. T.

    2004-01-01

    We present a discussion of approximations to the temperature dependent part of the rheology of ice. We have constructed deformation maps using the superplastic rheology of Goldsby & Kohlstedt and find that the rheologies that control convective flow in the Europa's are likely grain boundary sliding and basal slip for a range of grain sizes 0.1 mm < d < 1 cm. We compare the relative merits of two different approximations to the temperature dependence of viscosity and argue that for temperature ranges appropriate to Europa, implementing the non-Newtonian, lab-derived flow law directly is required to accurately judge the onset of convection in the ice shell and temperature gradient in the near-surface ice.

  20. The emergence of modern sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean.

    PubMed

    Knies, Jochen; Cabedo-Sanz, Patricia; Belt, Simon T; Baranwal, Soma; Fietz, Susanne; Rosell-Melé, Antoni

    2014-11-28

    Arctic sea ice coverage is shrinking in response to global climate change and summer ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean are predicted by the end of the century. The validity of this prediction could potentially be tested through the reconstruction of the climate of the Pliocene epoch (5.33-2.58 million years ago), an analogue of a future warmer Earth. Here we show that, in the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean, ice-free conditions prevailed in the early Pliocene until sea ice expanded from the central Arctic Ocean for the first time ca. 4 million years ago. Amplified by a rise in topography in several regions of the Arctic and enhanced freshening of the Arctic Ocean, sea ice expanded progressively in response to positive ice-albedo feedback mechanisms. Sea ice reached its modern winter maximum extension for the first time during the culmination of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation, ca. 2.6 million years ago.

  1. Sea ice occurrence predicts genetic isolation in the Arctic fox.

    PubMed

    Geffen, Eli; Waidyaratne, Sitara; Dalén, Love; Angerbjörn, Anders; Vila, Carles; Hersteinsson, Pall; Fuglei, Eva; White, Paula A; Goltsman, Michael; Kapel, Christian M O; Wayne, Robert K

    2007-10-01

    Unlike Oceanic islands, the islands of the Arctic Sea are not completely isolated from migration by terrestrial vertebrates. The pack ice connects many Arctic Sea islands to the mainland during winter months. The Arctic fox (Alopex lagopus), which has a circumpolar distribution, populates numerous islands in the Arctic Sea. In this study, we used genetic data from 20 different populations, spanning the entire distribution of the Arctic fox, to identify barriers to dispersal. Specifically, we considered geographical distance, occurrence of sea ice, winter temperature, ecotype, and the presence of red fox and polar bear as nonexclusive factors that influence the dispersal behaviour of individuals. Using distance-based redundancy analysis and the BIOENV procedure, we showed that occurrence of sea ice is the key predictor and explained 40-60% of the genetic distance among populations. In addition, our analysis identified the Commander and Pribilof Islands Arctic populations as genetically unique suggesting they deserve special attention from a conservation perspective.

  2. Susceptibility of contrail ice crystal numbers to aircraft soot particle emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kärcher, B.; Voigt, C.

    2017-08-01

    We develop an idealized, physically based model describing combined effects of ice nucleation and sublimation on ice crystal number during persistent contrail formation. Our study represents the first effort to predict ice numbers at the point where contrails transition into contrail cirrus—several minutes past formation—by connecting them to aircraft soot particle emissions and atmospheric supersaturation with respect to ice. Results averaged over an observed exponential distribution of ice supersaturation (mean value 15%) indicate that large reductions in soot particle numbers are needed to lower contrail ice crystal numbers significantly for soot emission indices around 1015 (kg fuel)-1, because reductions in nucleated ice number are partially compensated by sublimation losses. Variations in soot particle (-50%) and water vapor (+10%) emission indices at threefold lower soot emissions resulting from biofuel blending cause ice crystal numbers to change by -35% and <5%, respectively. The efficiency of reduction depends on ice supersaturation and the size distribution of nucleated ice crystals in jet exhaust plumes and on atmospheric ice supersaturation, making the latter another key factor in contrail mitigation. We expect our study to have important repercussions for planning airborne measurements targeting contrail formation, designing parameterization schemes for use in large-scale models, reducing uncertainties in predicting contrail cirrus, and mitigating the climate impact of aviation.

  3. ILT based defect simulation of inspection images accurately predicts mask defect printability on wafer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deep, Prakash; Paninjath, Sankaranarayanan; Pereira, Mark; Buck, Peter

    2016-05-01

    At advanced technology nodes mask complexity has been increased because of large-scale use of resolution enhancement technologies (RET) which includes Optical Proximity Correction (OPC), Inverse Lithography Technology (ILT) and Source Mask Optimization (SMO). The number of defects detected during inspection of such mask increased drastically and differentiation of critical and non-critical defects are more challenging, complex and time consuming. Because of significant defectivity of EUVL masks and non-availability of actinic inspection, it is important and also challenging to predict the criticality of defects for printability on wafer. This is one of the significant barriers for the adoption of EUVL for semiconductor manufacturing. Techniques to decide criticality of defects from images captured using non actinic inspection images is desired till actinic inspection is not available. High resolution inspection of photomask images detects many defects which are used for process and mask qualification. Repairing all defects is not practical and probably not required, however it's imperative to know which defects are severe enough to impact wafer before repair. Additionally, wafer printability check is always desired after repairing a defect. AIMSTM review is the industry standard for this, however doing AIMSTM review for all defects is expensive and very time consuming. Fast, accurate and an economical mechanism is desired which can predict defect printability on wafer accurately and quickly from images captured using high resolution inspection machine. Predicting defect printability from such images is challenging due to the fact that the high resolution images do not correlate with actual mask contours. The challenge is increased due to use of different optical condition during inspection other than actual scanner condition, and defects found in such images do not have correlation with actual impact on wafer. Our automated defect simulation tool predicts

  4. Ice nucleation by soil dust compared to desert dust aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moehler, O.; Steinke, I.; Ullrich, R.; Höhler, K.; Schiebel, T.; Hoose, C.; Funk, R.

    2015-12-01

    A minor fraction of atmospheric aerosol particles, so-called ice-nucleating particles (INPs), initiates the formation of the ice phase in tropospheric clouds and thereby markedly influences the Earth's weather and climate systems. Whether an aerosol particle acts as an INP depends on its size, morphology and chemical compositions. The INP fraction of certain aerosol types also strongly depends on the temperature and the relative humidity. Because both desert dust and soil dust aerosols typically comprise a variety of different particles, it is difficult to assess and predict their contribution to the atmospheric INP abundance. This requires both accurate modelling of the sources and atmospheric distribution of atmospheric dust components and detailed investigations of their ice nucleation activities. The latter can be achieved in laboratory experiments and parameterized for use in weather and climate models as a function of temperature and particle surface area, a parameter called ice-nucleation active site (INAS) density. Concerning ice nucleation activity studies, the soil dust is of particular interest because it contains a significant fraction of organics and biological components, both with the potential for contributing to the atmospheric INP abundance at relatively high temperatures compared to mineral components. First laboratory ice nucleation experiments with a few soil dust samples indicated their INP fraction to be comparable or slightly enhanced to that of desert dust. We have used the AIDA (Aerosol Interaction and Dynamics in the Atmosphere) cloud simulation chamber to study the immersion freezing ability of four different arable soil dusts, sampled in Germany, China and Argentina. For temperatures higher than about -20°C, we found the INP fraction of aerosols generated from these samples by a dry dispersion technique to be significantly higher compared to various desert dust aerosols also investigated in AIDA experiments. In this contribution, we

  5. The seasonal cycle of snow cover, sea ice and surface albedo

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robock, A.

    1980-01-01

    The paper examines satellite data used to construct mean snow cover caps for the Northern Hemisphere. The zonally averaged snow cover from these maps is used to calculate the seasonal cycle of zonally averaged surface albedo. The effects of meltwater on the surface, solar zenith angle, and cloudiness are parameterized and included in the calculations of snow and ice albedo. The data allows a calculation of surface albedo for any land or ocean 10 deg latitude band as a function of surface temperature ice and snow cover; the correct determination of the ice boundary is more important than the snow boundary for accurately simulating the ice and snow albedo feedback.

  6. Predictions and Studies with a One-Dimensional Ice/Ocean Model.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-04-01

    Description of the model c. Initial conditions and forcing Two different test cases are used for model valiCa- tion and scientific studies. One is the...the density of ice (0.92 g/cm 3), AS/J(O0 is and y-components of the current velocity, w the z-com- the salinity difference per mill, assumed to be 30... different treatments of the mixed layer on the Semtner, quickly develops in the CML simulation. In growth and decay of ice. Henceforth, Semtner’s model

  7. Greenland Ice Sheet flow response to runoff variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, Laura A.; Behn, Mark D.; Das, Sarah B.; Joughin, Ian; Noël, Brice P. Y.; Broeke, Michiel R.; Herring, Thomas

    2016-11-01

    We use observations of ice sheet surface motion from a Global Positioning System network operating from 2006 to 2014 around North Lake in west Greenland to investigate the dynamical response of the Greenland Ice Sheet's ablation area to interannual variability in surface melting. We find no statistically significant relationship between runoff season characteristics and ice flow velocities within a given year or season. Over the 7 year time series, annual velocities at North Lake decrease at an average rate of -0.9 ± 1.1 m yr-2, consistent with the negative trend in annual velocities observed in neighboring regions over recent decades. We find that net runoff integrated over several preceding years has a negative correlation with annual velocities, similar to findings from the two other available decadal records of ice velocity in western Greenland. However, we argue that this correlation is not necessarily evidence for a direct hydrologic mechanism acting on the timescale of multiple years but could be a statistical construct. Finally, we stress that neither the decadal slowdown trend nor the negative correlation between velocity and integrated runoff is predicted by current ice-sheet models, underscoring that these models do not yet capture all the relevant feedbacks between runoff and ice dynamics needed to predict long-term trends in ice sheet flow.

  8. User Manual for the NASA Glenn Ice Accretion Code LEWICE. Version 2.2.2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.

    2002-01-01

    A research project is underway at NASA Glenn to produce a computer code which can accurately predict ice growth under a wide range of meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present a description of the code inputs and outputs from version 2.2.2 of this code, which is called LEWICE. This version differs from release 2.0 due to the addition of advanced thermal analysis capabilities for de-icing and anti-icing applications using electrothermal heaters or bleed air applications. An extensive effort was also undertaken to compare the results against the database of electrothermal results which have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) as was performed for the validation effort for version 2.0. This report will primarily describe the features of the software related to the use of the program. Appendix A of this report has been included to list some of the inner workings of the software or the physical models used. This information is also available in the form of several unpublished documents internal to NASA. This report is intended as a replacement for all previous user manuals of LEWICE. In addition to describing the changes and improvements made for this version, information from previous manuals may be duplicated so that the user will not need to consult previous manuals to use this code.

  9. Accurate De Novo Prediction of Protein Contact Map by Ultra-Deep Learning Model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Sheng; Sun, Siqi; Li, Zhen; Zhang, Renyu; Xu, Jinbo

    2017-01-01

    Protein contacts contain key information for the understanding of protein structure and function and thus, contact prediction from sequence is an important problem. Recently exciting progress has been made on this problem, but the predicted contacts for proteins without many sequence homologs is still of low quality and not very useful for de novo structure prediction. This paper presents a new deep learning method that predicts contacts by integrating both evolutionary coupling (EC) and sequence conservation information through an ultra-deep neural network formed by two deep residual neural networks. The first residual network conducts a series of 1-dimensional convolutional transformation of sequential features; the second residual network conducts a series of 2-dimensional convolutional transformation of pairwise information including output of the first residual network, EC information and pairwise potential. By using very deep residual networks, we can accurately model contact occurrence patterns and complex sequence-structure relationship and thus, obtain higher-quality contact prediction regardless of how many sequence homologs are available for proteins in question. Our method greatly outperforms existing methods and leads to much more accurate contact-assisted folding. Tested on 105 CASP11 targets, 76 past CAMEO hard targets, and 398 membrane proteins, the average top L long-range prediction accuracy obtained by our method, one representative EC method CCMpred and the CASP11 winner MetaPSICOV is 0.47, 0.21 and 0.30, respectively; the average top L/10 long-range accuracy of our method, CCMpred and MetaPSICOV is 0.77, 0.47 and 0.59, respectively. Ab initio folding using our predicted contacts as restraints but without any force fields can yield correct folds (i.e., TMscore>0.6) for 203 of the 579 test proteins, while that using MetaPSICOV- and CCMpred-predicted contacts can do so for only 79 and 62 of them, respectively. Our contact-assisted models also have

  10. Accurate De Novo Prediction of Protein Contact Map by Ultra-Deep Learning Model

    PubMed Central

    Li, Zhen; Zhang, Renyu

    2017-01-01

    Motivation Protein contacts contain key information for the understanding of protein structure and function and thus, contact prediction from sequence is an important problem. Recently exciting progress has been made on this problem, but the predicted contacts for proteins without many sequence homologs is still of low quality and not very useful for de novo structure prediction. Method This paper presents a new deep learning method that predicts contacts by integrating both evolutionary coupling (EC) and sequence conservation information through an ultra-deep neural network formed by two deep residual neural networks. The first residual network conducts a series of 1-dimensional convolutional transformation of sequential features; the second residual network conducts a series of 2-dimensional convolutional transformation of pairwise information including output of the first residual network, EC information and pairwise potential. By using very deep residual networks, we can accurately model contact occurrence patterns and complex sequence-structure relationship and thus, obtain higher-quality contact prediction regardless of how many sequence homologs are available for proteins in question. Results Our method greatly outperforms existing methods and leads to much more accurate contact-assisted folding. Tested on 105 CASP11 targets, 76 past CAMEO hard targets, and 398 membrane proteins, the average top L long-range prediction accuracy obtained by our method, one representative EC method CCMpred and the CASP11 winner MetaPSICOV is 0.47, 0.21 and 0.30, respectively; the average top L/10 long-range accuracy of our method, CCMpred and MetaPSICOV is 0.77, 0.47 and 0.59, respectively. Ab initio folding using our predicted contacts as restraints but without any force fields can yield correct folds (i.e., TMscore>0.6) for 203 of the 579 test proteins, while that using MetaPSICOV- and CCMpred-predicted contacts can do so for only 79 and 62 of them, respectively. Our contact

  11. Gas permeability of ice-templated, unidirectional porous ceramics.

    PubMed

    Seuba, Jordi; Deville, Sylvain; Guizard, Christian; Stevenson, Adam J

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the gas flow behavior of unidirectional porous ceramics processed by ice-templating. The pore volume ranged between 54% and 72% and pore size between 2.9 [Formula: see text]m and 19.1 [Formula: see text]m. The maximum permeability ([Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] m[Formula: see text]) was measured in samples with the highest total pore volume (72%) and pore size (19.1 [Formula: see text]m). However, we demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a similar permeability ([Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] m[Formula: see text]) at 54% pore volume by modification of the pore shape. These results were compared with those reported and measured for isotropic porous materials processed by conventional techniques. In unidirectional porous materials tortuosity ([Formula: see text]) is mainly controlled by pore size, unlike in isotropic porous structures where [Formula: see text] is linked to pore volume. Furthermore, we assessed the applicability of Ergun and capillary model in the prediction of permeability and we found that the capillary model accurately describes the gas flow behavior of unidirectional porous materials. Finally, we combined the permeability data obtained here with strength data for these materials to establish links between strength and permeability of ice-templated materials.

  12. Obtaining Accurate Probabilities Using Classifier Calibration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakdaman Naeini, Mahdi

    2016-01-01

    Learning probabilistic classification and prediction models that generate accurate probabilities is essential in many prediction and decision-making tasks in machine learning and data mining. One way to achieve this goal is to post-process the output of classification models to obtain more accurate probabilities. These post-processing methods are…

  13. Iced Aircraft Flight Data for Flight Simulator Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ratvasky, Thomas P.; Blankenship, Kurt; Rieke, William; Brinker, David J.

    2003-01-01

    NASA is developing and validating technology to incorporate aircraft icing effects into a flight training device concept demonstrator. Flight simulation models of a DHC-6 Twin Otter were developed from wind tunnel data using a subscale, complete aircraft model with and without simulated ice, and from previously acquired flight data. The validation of the simulation models required additional aircraft response time histories of the airplane configured with simulated ice similar to the subscale model testing. Therefore, a flight test was conducted using the NASA Twin Otter Icing Research Aircraft. Over 500 maneuvers of various types were conducted in this flight test. The validation data consisted of aircraft state parameters, pilot inputs, propulsion, weight, center of gravity, and moments of inertia with the airplane configured with different amounts of simulated ice. Emphasis was made to acquire data at wing stall and tailplane stall since these events are of primary interest to model accurately in the flight training device. Analyses of several datasets are described regarding wing and tailplane stall. Key findings from these analyses are that the simulated wing ice shapes significantly reduced the C , max, while the simulated tail ice caused elevator control force anomalies and tailplane stall when flaps were deflected 30 deg or greater. This effectively reduced the safe operating margins between iced wing and iced tail stall as flap deflection and thrust were increased. This flight test demonstrated that the critical aspects to be modeled in the icing effects flight training device include: iced wing and tail stall speeds, flap and thrust effects, control forces, and control effectiveness.

  14. Interstellar Ice Chemistry: From Water to Complex Organics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oberg, Karin I.; Fayolle, E.; Linnartz, H.; van Dishoeck, E.; Fillion, J.; Bertin, M.

    2013-06-01

    Molecular cloud cores, protostellar envelopes and protoplanetary disk midplanes are all characterized by freeze-out of atoms and molecules (other than H and H2) onto interstellar dust grains. On the grain surface, atom addition reactions, especially hydrogenation, are efficient and H2O forms readily from O, CH3OH from CO etc. The result is an icy mantle typically dominated by H2O, but also rich in CO2, CO, NH3, CH3OH and CH4. These ices are further processed through interactions with radiation, electrons and energetic particles. Because of the efficiency of the freeze-out process, and the complex chemistry that succeeds it, these icy grain mantles constitute a major reservoir of volatiles during star formation and are also the source of much of the chemical evolution observed in star forming regions. Laboratory experiments allow us to explore how molecules and radicals desorb, dissociate, diffuse and react in ices when exposed to different sources of energy. Changes in ice composition and structure is constrained using infrared spectroscopy and mass spectrometry. By comparing ice desorption, segregation, and chemistry efficiencies under different experimental conditions, we can characterize the basic ice processes, e.g. diffusion of different species, that underpin the observable changes in ice composition and structure. This information can then be used to predict the interstellar ice chemical evolution. I will review some of the key laboratory discoveries on ice chemistry during the past few years and how they have been used to predict and interpret astronomical observations of ice bands and gas-phase molecules associated with ice evaporation. These include measurements of thermal diffusion in and evaporation from ice mixtures, non-thermal diffusion efficiencies (including the recent results on frequency resolved UV photodesorption), and the expected temperature dependencies of the complex ice chemistry regulated by radical formation and diffusion. Based on these

  15. Design, fabrication, and evaluation of a partially melted ice particle cloud facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soltis, Jared T.

    % melt to 3°C at 90%. There were two types of ice accretion with a transition zone in between. The first type of ice was opaque in color and had a rough surface. This ice occurred roughly from 6.0°C to 12.0°C duct temperatures (8% to 50% melt). The qualitative characteristics of the ice were produced from the low water content in the cloud. The water that was available froze instantly and trapped ice particle. Duct temperatures greater than 17.5°C (80% melt) produced ice that was clear and smooth. The water in the surface did not freeze instantly due to the high water content creating a water film that froze. A mixed-phase cloud dynamics model from NASA Glenn was used to estimate the percent melt of the cloud exiting the duct. There was no way to validate the model by directly measuring the percent melt of the cloud, so single particle melt experiments were conducted and compared to the model. A 0.05g/L solution of rhodamine b was sprayed into a levitator and droplets formed at the nodes of the wave. A 532nm green laser was used to illuminate the dye, and the water emitted orange 593nm light given the luminescent properties of the ink. The emitted light intensity was recorded, and a linear relationship between the light intensity of ice to the light intensity of water was used to determine the percent melt of a droplet. The droplets were frozen with a cold flow of nitrogen gas via a liquid nitrogen heat exchanger. The droplets melted under natural convection when the cold nitrogen was shut off. Fifteen cases were compared with droplet diameters ranging from 324mum to 1112mum, air temperatures from 16°C to 31°C, and relative humidities from 41% to 100%. The average discrepancy between predictions and results for the cases that melted slower than ten seconds was 13% while the cases that melted faster than 10 second had 64% discrepancy between the model and experiment. To explain the discrepancy between the experiment and model, sensitivity studies of the model were

  16. Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

    2017-08-01

    Decadal prediction exploits sources of predictability from both the internal variability through the initialisation of the climate model from observational estimates, and the external radiative forcings. When a model is initialised with the observed state at the initial time step (Full Field Initialisation—FFI), the forecast run drifts towards the biased model climate. Distinguishing between the climate signal to be predicted and the model drift is a challenging task, because the application of a-posteriori bias correction has the risk of removing part of the variability signal. The anomaly initialisation (AI) technique aims at addressing the drift issue by answering the following question: if the model is allowed to start close to its own attractor (i.e. its biased world), but the phase of the simulated variability is constrained toward the contemporaneous observed one at the initialisation time, does the prediction skill improve? The relative merits of the FFI and AI techniques applied respectively to the ocean component and the ocean and sea ice components simultaneously in the EC-Earth global coupled model are assessed. For both strategies the initialised hindcasts show better skill than historical simulations for the ocean heat content and AMOC along the first two forecast years, for sea ice and PDO along the first forecast year, while for AMO the improvements are statistically significant for the first two forecast years. The AI in the ocean and sea ice components significantly improves the skill of the Arctic sea surface temperature over the FFI.

  17. Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Serreze, Mark C.; Stroeve, Julienne

    2015-01-01

    September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. PMID:26032315

  18. Environmental Predictors of Ice Seal Presence in the Bering Sea

    PubMed Central

    Miksis-Olds, Jennifer L.

    2014-01-01

    Ice seals overwintering in the Bering Sea are challenged with foraging, finding mates, and maintaining breathing holes in a dark and ice covered environment. Due to the difficulty of studying these species in their natural environment, very little is known about how the seals navigate under ice. Here we identify specific environmental parameters, including components of the ambient background sound, that are predictive of ice seal presence in the Bering Sea. Multi-year mooring deployments provided synoptic time series of acoustic and oceanographic parameters from which environmental parameters predictive of species presence were identified through a series of mixed models. Ice cover and 10 kHz sound level were significant predictors of seal presence, with 40 kHz sound and prey presence (combined with ice cover) as potential predictors as well. Ice seal presence showed a strong positive correlation with ice cover and a negative association with 10 kHz environmental sound. On average, there was a 20–30 dB difference between sound levels during solid ice conditions compared to open water or melting conditions, providing a salient acoustic gradient between open water and solid ice conditions by which ice seals could orient. By constantly assessing the acoustic environment associated with the seasonal ice movement in the Bering Sea, it is possible that ice seals could utilize aspects of the soundscape to gauge their safe distance to open water or the ice edge by orienting in the direction of higher sound levels indicative of open water, especially in the frequency range above 1 kHz. In rapidly changing Arctic and sub-Arctic environments, the seasonal ice conditions and soundscapes are likely to change which may impact the ability of animals using ice presence and cues to successfully function during the winter breeding season. PMID:25229453

  19. Observed ices in the Solar System

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, Roger N.; Grundy, Will; Carlson, Robert R.; Noll, Keith; Gudipati, Murthy; Castillo-Rogez, Julie C.

    2013-01-01

    Ices have been detected and mapped on the Earth and all planets and/or their satellites further from the sun. Water ice is the most common frozen volatile observed and is also unambiguously detected or inferred in every planet and/or their moon(s) except Venus. Carbon dioxide is also extensively found in all systems beyond the Earth except Pluto although it sometimes appears to be trapped rather than as an ice on some objects. The largest deposits of carbon dioxide ice is on Mars. Sulfur dioxide ice is found in the Jupiter system. Nitrogen and methane ices are common beyond the Uranian system. Saturn’s moon Titan probably has the most complex active chemistry involving ices, with benzene (C6H6) and many tentative or inferred compounds including ices of Cyanoacetylene (HC3N), Toluene (C7H8), Cyanogen (C2N2), Acetonitrile (CH3CN), H2O, CO2, and NH3. Confirming compounds on Titan is hampered by its thick smoggy atmosphere. Ammonia was predicted on many icy moons but is notably absent among the definitively detected ices with the possible exception of Enceladus. Comets, storehouses of many compounds that could exist as ices in their nuclei, have only had small amounts of water ice definitively detected on their surfaces. Only one asteroid has had a direct detection of surface water ice, although its presence can be inferred in others. This chapter reviews some of the properties of ices that lead to their detection, and surveys the ices that have been observed on solid surfaces throughout the Solar System.

  20. Ice Mass Fluctuations and Earthquake Hazard

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sauber, J.

    2006-01-01

    In south central Alaska, tectonic strain rates are high in a region that includes large glaciers undergoing ice wastage over the last 100-150 years [Sauber et al., 2000; Sauber and Molnia, 2004]. In this study we focus on the region referred to as the Yakataga segment of the Pacific-North American plate boundary zone in Alaska. In this region, the Bering and Malaspina glacier ablation zones have average ice elevation decreases from 1-3 meters/year (see summary and references in Molnia, 2005). The elastic response of the solid Earth to this ice mass decrease alone would cause several mm/yr of horizontal motion and uplift rates of up to 10-12 mm/yr. In this same region observed horizontal rates of tectonic deformation range from 10 to 40 mm/yr to the north-northwest and the predicted tectonic uplift rates range from -2 mm/year near the Gulf of Alaska coast to 12mm/year further inland [Savage and Lisowski, 1988; Ma et al, 1990; Sauber et al., 1997, 2000, 2004; Elliot et al., 2005]. The large ice mass changes associated with glacial wastage and surges perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. The associated incremental stress change may enhance or inhibit earthquake occurrence. We report recent (seasonal to decadal) ice elevation changes derived from data from NASA's ICESat satellite laser altimeter combined with earlier DEM's as a reference surface to illustrate the characteristics of short-term ice elevation changes [Sauber et al., 2005, Muskett et al., 2005]. Since we are interested in evaluating the effect of ice changes on faulting potential, we calculated the predicted surface displacement changes and incremental stresses over a specified time interval and calculated the change in the fault stability margin using the approach given by Wu and Hasegawa [1996]. Additionally, we explored the possibility that these ice mass fluctuations altered the seismic rate of background seismicity. Although we primarily focus on

  1. River predisposition to ice jams: a simplified geospatial model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Munck, Stéphane; Gauthier, Yves; Bernier, Monique; Chokmani, Karem; Légaré, Serge

    2017-07-01

    Floods resulting from river ice jams pose a great risk to many riverside municipalities in Canada. The location of an ice jam is mainly influenced by channel morphology. The goal of this work was therefore to develop a simplified geospatial model to estimate the predisposition of a river channel to ice jams. Rather than predicting the timing of river ice breakup, the main question here was to predict where the broken ice is susceptible to jam based on the river's geomorphological characteristics. Thus, six parameters referred to potential causes for ice jams in the literature were initially selected: presence of an island, narrowing of the channel, high sinuosity, presence of a bridge, confluence of rivers, and slope break. A GIS-based tool was used to generate the aforementioned factors over regular-spaced segments along the entire channel using available geospatial data. An ice jam predisposition index (IJPI) was calculated by combining the weighted optimal factors. Three Canadian rivers (province of Québec) were chosen as test sites. The resulting maps were assessed from historical observations and local knowledge. Results show that 77 % of the observed ice jam sites on record occurred in river sections that the model considered as having high or medium predisposition. This leaves 23 % of false negative errors (missed occurrence). Between 7 and 11 % of the highly predisposed river sections did not have an ice jam on record (false-positive cases). Results, limitations, and potential improvements are discussed.

  2. Space Shuttle ice nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Whitten, R. C.; Cicerone, R. J.

    1982-08-01

    Estimates are made showing that, as a consequence of rocket activity in the earth's upper atmosphere in the Shuttle era, average ice nuclei concentrations in the upper atmosphere could increase by a factor of two, and that an aluminum dust layer weighing up to 1000 tons might eventually form in the lower atmosphere. The concentrations of Space Shuttle ice nuclei (SSIN) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere were estimated by taking into account the composition of the particles, the extent of surface poisoning, and the size of the particles. Calculated stratospheric size distributions at 20 km with Space Shuttle particulate injection, calculated SSIN concentrations at 10 and 20 km altitude corresponding to different water vapor/ice supersaturations, and predicted SSIN concentrations in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere are shown.

  3. Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change.

    PubMed

    Gregory, J M; Huybrechts, P

    2006-07-15

    Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5+/-0.9K in Greenland and 3.1+/-0.8K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7m.

  4. Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in the CICE v5.1 Sea Ice Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urrego-Blanco, J. R.; Urban, N. M.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in the high latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with mid latitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. In this work we characterize parametric uncertainty in Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE) and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent and volume with respect to uncertainty in about 40 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one-at-a-time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 40-dimensional parameter space. This approach requires a very large number of model evaluations, which are expensive to run. A more computationally efficient approach is implemented by training and cross-validating a surrogate (emulator) of the sea ice model with model output from 400 model runs. The emulator is used to make predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume at several model configurations, which are then used to compute the Sobol sensitivity indices of the 40 parameters. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model output is most sensitive to snow parameters such as conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. The main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a non-parametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. It is recommended research to be prioritized towards more accurately determining these most influential parameters values by observational studies or by improving existing parameterizations in the sea ice model.

  5. Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haines, K.; Melia, N.; Hawkins, E.; Day, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    In our previous work [1] we showed how trans-Arctic shipping routes would become more available through the 21st century as sea ice declines, using CMIP5 models with means and stds calibrated to PIOMAS sea ice observations. Sea ice will continue to close shipping routes to open water vessels through the winter months for the foreseeable future so the availability of open sea routes will vary greatly from year to year. Here [2] we look at whether the trans-Arctic shipping season period can be predicted in seasonal forecasts, again using several climate models, and testing both perfect and imperfect knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts may show lower skill before a May `predictability barrier'. Focussing on the northern sea route (NSR) off Siberia, the date of opening of this sea route is twice as variable as the closing date, and this carries through to reduced predictability at the start of the season. Under climate change the later freeze-up date accounts for 60% of the lengthening season, Fig1 We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than for average ice years. Forecasting the exact timing of route open periods is harder (more weather dependent) under average ice conditions while in high and low ice years the season is more controlled by the initial ice conditions from spring onwards. This could be very useful information for companies planning vessel routing for the coming season. We tested this dependence on the initial ice conditions by changing the initial ice state towards climatologically average conditions and show directly that early summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts of the coming shipping season. Mechanisms for this are discussed. This strongly suggests that good sea ice thickness observations

  6. Light transport and general aviation aircraft icing research requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Breeze, R. K.; Clark, G. M.

    1981-01-01

    A short term and a long term icing research and technology program plan was drafted for NASA LeRC based on 33 separate research items. The specific items listed resulted from a comprehensive literature search, organized and assisted by a computer management file and an industry/Government agency survey. Assessment of the current facilities and icing technology was accomplished by presenting summaries of ice sensitive components and protection methods; and assessments of penalty evaluation, the experimental data base, ice accretion prediction methods, research facilities, new protection methods, ice protection requirements, and icing instrumentation. The intent of the research plan was to determine what icing research NASA LeRC must do or sponsor to ultimately provide for increased utilization and safety of light transport and general aviation aircraft.

  7. Optimizing Observations of Sea Ice Thickness and Snow Depth in the Arctic

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    changes in the thickness of sea ice, glaciers , and ice sheets. These observations are critical for predicting the response of Earth’s polar ice to...Arctic Sea Ice Conditions in Spring 2009 - 2013 Prior to Melt , Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5888-5893, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058011. [published, refereed

  8. Radon and radium in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean, and what they reveal about gas exchange in the sea ice zone.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loose, B.; Kelly, R. P.; Bigdeli, A.; Moran, S. B.

    2014-12-01

    The polar sea ice zones are regions of high primary productivity and interior water mass formation. Consequently, the seasonal sea ice cycle appears important to both the solubility and biological carbon pumps. To estimate net CO2 transfer in the sea ice zone, we require accurate estimates of the air-sea gas transfer velocity. In the open ocean, the gas transfer velocity is driven by wind, waves and bubbles - all of which are strongly altered by the presence of sea ice, making it difficult to translate open ocean estimates of gas transfer to the ice zone. In this study, we present profiles of 222Rn and 226Ra throughout the mixed-layer and euphotic zone. Profiles were collected spanning a range of sea ice cover conditions from 40 to 100%. The profiles of Rn/Ra can be used to estimate the gas transfer velocity, but the 3.8 day half-life of 222Rn implies that mixed layer radon will have a memory of the past ~20 days of gas exchange forcing, which may include a range of sea ice cover conditions. Here, we compare individual estimates of the gas transfer velocity to the turbulent forcing conditions constrained from shipboard and regional reanalysis data to more appropriately capture the time history upper ocean Rn/Ra.

  9. Operational Products Archived at the National Snow and Ice Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fetterer, F. M.; Ballagh, L.; Gergely, K.; Kovarik, J.; Wallace, A.; Windnagel, A.

    2009-12-01

    Sea ice charts for shipping interests from the Navy/NOAA/Coast Guard National Ice Center are often laboriously produced by manually interpreting and synthesizing data from many sources, both satellite and in situ. They are generally more accurate than similar products from single sources. Upward looking sonar data from U.S. Navy submarines operating in the Arctic provides information on ice thickness. Similarly extensive data were available from no other source prior to the recently established reliability of ice thickness estimates from polar orbiting instruments like the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) products from the NOAA NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center give researchers the best possible estimates of snow cover and associated variables to support hydrologic modeling and analysis for the continental U.S. These and other snow and ice data products are produced by the U.S. Navy, the NOAA National Weather Service, and other agency entities to serve users who have an operational need: to get a ship safely to its destination, for example, or to predict stream flow. NOAA supports work at NSIDC with data from operational sources that can be used for climate research and change detection. We make these products available to a new user base, by archiving operational data, making data available online, providing documentation, and fielding questions from researchers about the data. These data demand special consideration: often they are advantageous because they are available on a schedule in near real time, but their use in climate studies is problematic since many are produced with regard for ‘best now’ and without regard for time series consistency. As arctic climate changes rapidly, operational and semi-operational products have an expanding science support role to play.

  10. Preservation of Midlatitude Ice Sheets on Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bramson, A. M.; Byrne, S.; Bapst, J.

    2017-11-01

    Excess ice with a minimum age of tens of millions of years is widespread in Arcadia Planitia on Mars, and a similar deposit has been found in Utopia Planitia. The conditions that led to the formation and preservation of these midlatitude ice sheets hold clues to past climate and subsurface structure on Mars. We simulate the thermal stability and retreat of buried excess ice sheets over 21 Myr of Martian orbital solutions and find that the ice sheets can be orders of magnitude older than the obliquity cycles that are typically thought to drive midlatitude ice deposition and sublimation. Retreat of this ice in the last 4 Myr could have contributed 6% of the volume of the north polar layered deposits (NPLD) and more than 10% if the NPLD are older than 4 Myr. Matching the measured dielectric constants of the Arcadia and Utopia Planitia deposits requires ice porosities of 25-35%. We model geothermally driven vapor migration through porous ice under Martian temperatures and find that Martian firn may be able to maintain porosity for timescales longer than we predict for retreat of the ice.

  11. Diagnosing the Ice Crystal Enhancement Factor in the Tropics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Matsui, Toshihisa; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Zhang, Minghua; Starr, David O'C; Li, Xiaowen; Simpson, Joanne

    2009-01-01

    Recent modeling studies have revealed that ice crystal number concentration is one of the dominant factors in the effect of clouds on radiation. Since the ice crystal enhancement factor and ice nuclei concentration determine the concentration, they are both important in quantifying the contribution of increased ice nuclei to global warming. In this study, long-term cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations are compared with field observations to estimate the ice crystal enhancement factor in tropical and midlatitudinal clouds, respectively. It is found that the factor in tropical clouds is 10 3-104 times larger than that of mid-latitudinal ones, which makes physical sense because entrainment and detrainment in the Tropics are much stronger than in middle latitudes. The effect of entrainment/detrainment on the enhancement factor, especially in tropical clouds, suggests that cloud microphysical parameterizations should be coupled with subgrid turbulence parameterizations within CRMs to obtain a more accurate depiction of cloud-radiative forcing.

  12. Predicting the abundance of ice nucleating particles of biological origin in precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stopelli, Emiliano; Conen, Franz; Morris, Cindy; Alewell, Christine

    2016-04-01

    Ice nucleation is a key step for the formation of precipitation on Earth. Ice nucleating particles (INPs) of biological origin catalyse the freezing of supercooled cloud droplets at temperatures warmer than -12 ° C. In order to understand the effective role of these INPs in conditioning precipitation, it is of primary importance to describe and predict their variability in the atmosphere. Over the course of two years, 14 sampling campaigns in precipitating clouds were conducted at the High Altitude Research Station Jungfraujoch, in the Swiss Alps, at 3580 m a.s.l. A total of 106 freshly fallen snow samples were analysed immediately on site for the concentration of INPs active at -8 ° C (INPs-8) by immersion freezing. Values of INPs-8 ranged from 0.21 to 434ṡml-1. Environmental parameters (like temperature of the air, wind speed, the stable oxygen ratio δ18O of snow, the number of particles larger than 0.5 μm) were used as independent variables to build a set of multiple linear regression models to describe and predict the observed variations of INPs-8 over time. The model providing the best results was based on fV (the fraction of remaining vapour in precipitating clouds, derived from δ18O) and on wind speed. It indicates that a coincidence of strong atmospheric turbulence and little prior precipitation from a cloud coincides with large concentrations of INPs-8. These conditions can be frequently encountered when air masses are suddenly forced to rise, for instance by the passage of a cold front, where also meteorological conditions are favourable to the onset of precipitation. To obtain more information on the presence of INPs-8 of biological origin and their relative composition, a set of precipitation samples were progressively filtered through different meshes (5 μm, 1.2 μm, 0.22 μm) followed by heating (40 ° C and 80 ° C). Almost all ice nucleating activity is lost after heating at 80 ° C, and a significant part of INPs-8 is sensitive to warming

  13. Yield surface evolution for columnar ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Zhiwei; Ma, Wei; Zhang, Shujuan; Mu, Yanhu; Zhao, Shunpin; Li, Guoyu

    A series of triaxial compression tests, which has capable of measuring the volumetric strain of the sample, were conducted on columnar ice. A new testing approach of probing the experimental yield surface was performed from a single sample in order to investigate yield and hardening behaviors of the columnar ice under complex stress states. Based on the characteristic of the volumetric strain, a new method of defined the multiaxial yield strengths of the columnar ice is proposed. The experimental yield surface remains elliptical shape in the stress space of effective stress versus mean stress. The effect of temperature, loading rate and loading path in the initial yield surface and deformation properties of the columnar ice were also studied. Subsequent yield surfaces of the columnar ice have been explored by using uniaxial and hydrostatic paths. The evolution of the subsequent yield surface exhibits significant path-dependent characteristics. The multiaxial hardening law of the columnar ice was established experimentally. A phenomenological yield criterion was presented for multiaxial yield and hardening behaviors of the columnar ice. The comparisons between the theoretical and measured results indicate that this current model is capable of giving a reasonable prediction for the multiaxial yield and post-yield properties of the columnar ice subjected to different temperature, loading rate and path conditions.

  14. Determining the ice seasons severity during 1982-2015 using the ice extents sum as a new characteristic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rjazin, Jevgeni; Pärn, Ove

    2016-04-01

    Sea ice is a key climate factor and it restricts considerably the winter navigation in sever seasons on the Baltic Sea. So determining ice conditions severity and describing ice cover behaviour at severe seasons interests scientists, engineers and navigation managers. The present study is carried out to determine the ice seasons severity degree basing on the ice seasons 1982 to 2015. A new integrative characteristic is introduced to describe the ice season severity. It is the sum of ice extents of the ice season id est the daily ice extents of the season are summed. The commonly used procedure to determine the ice season severity degree by the maximal ice extent is in this research compared to the new characteristic values. The remote sensing data on the ice concentrations on the Baltic Sea published in the European Copernicus Programme are used to obtain the severity characteristic values. The ice extents are calculated on these ice concentration data. Both the maximal ice extent of the season and a newly introduced characteristic - the ice extents sum are used to classify the winters with respect of severity. The most severe winter of the reviewed period is 1986/87. Also the ice seasons 1981/82, 1984/85, 1985/86, 1995/96 and 2002/03 are classified as severe. Only three seasons of this list are severe by both the criteria. They are 1984/85, 1985/86 and 1986/87. We interpret this coincidence as the evidence of enough-during extensive ice cover in these three seasons. In several winters, for example 2010/11 ice cover extended enough for some time, but did not endure. At few other ice seasons as 2002/03 the Baltic Sea was ice-covered in moderate extent, but the ice cover stayed long time. At 11 winters the ice extents sum differed considerably (> 10%) from the maximal ice extent. These winters yield one third of the studied ice seasons. The maximal ice extent of the season is simple to use and enables to reconstruct the ice cover history and to predict maximal ice

  15. Ice swimming - 'Ice Mile' and '1 km Ice event'.

    PubMed

    Knechtle, Beat; Rosemann, Thomas; Rüst, Christoph A

    2015-01-01

    Ice swimming for 1 mile and 1 km is a new discipline in open-water swimming since 2009. This study examined female and male performances in swimming 1 mile ('Ice Mile') and 1 km ('1 km Ice event') in water of 5 °C or colder between 2009 and 2015 with the hypothesis that women would be faster than men. Between 2009 and 2015, 113 men and 38 women completed one 'Ice Mile' and 26 men and 13 completed one '1 km Ice event' in water colder than +5 °C following the rules of International Ice Swimming Association (IISA). Differences in performance between women and men were determined. Sex difference (%) was calculated using the equation ([time for women] - [time for men]/[time for men] × 100). For 'Ice Mile', a mixed-effects regression model with interaction analyses was used to investigate the influence of sex and environmental conditions on swimming speed. The association between water temperature and swimming speed was assessed using Pearson correlation analyses. For 'Ice Mile' and '1 km Ice event', the best men were faster than the best women. In 'Ice Mile', calendar year, number of attempts, water temperature and wind chill showed no association with swimming speed for both women and men. For both women and men, water temperature was not correlated to swimming speed in both 'Ice Mile' and '1 km Ice event'. In water colder than 5 °C, men were faster than women in 'Ice Mile' and '1 km Ice event'. Water temperature showed no correlation to swimming speed.

  16. Application of an online-coupled regional climate model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for examination of ice nucleation schemes. Part II. Sensitivity to heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterizations and dust emissions

    DOE PAGES

    Zhang, Yang; Chen, Ying; Fan, Jiwen; ...

    2015-09-14

    Aerosol particles can affect cloud microphysical properties by serving as ice nuclei (IN). Large uncertainties exist in the ice nucleation parameterizations (INPs) used in current climate models. In this Part II paper, to examine the sensitivity of the model predictions to different heterogeneous INPs, WRF-CAM5 simulation using the INP of Niemand et al. (N12) [1] is conducted over East Asia for two full years, 2006 and 2011, and compared with simulation using the INP of Meyers et al. (M92) [2], which is the original INP used in CAM5. M92 calculates the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of icemore » supersaturation, while N12 represents the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of temperature and the number concentrations and surface areas of dust particles. Compared to M92, the WRF-CAM5 simulation with N12 produces significantly higher nucleated ice crystal number concentrations (ICNCs) in the northern domain where dust sources are located, leading to significantly higher cloud ice number and mass concentrations and ice water path, but the opposite is true in the southern domain where temperatures and moistures play a more important role in ice formation. Overall, the simulation with N12 gives lower downward shortwave radiation but higher downward longwave radiation, cloud liquid water path, cloud droplet number concentrations, and cloud optical depth. The increase in cloud optical depth and the decrease in downward solar flux result in a stronger shortwave and longwave cloud forcing, and decreases temperature at 2-m and precipitation. Changes in temperature and radiation lower surface concentrations of OH, O₃, SO₄²⁻, and PM 2.5, but increase surface concentrations of CO, NO₂, and SO₂ over most of the domain. By acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and IN, dust particles have different impacts on cloud water and ice number concentrations, radiation, and temperature at 2-m and precipitation depending on whether the

  17. Application of an online-coupled regional climate model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for examination of ice nucleation schemes. Part II. Sensitivity to heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterizations and dust emissions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhang, Yang; Chen, Ying; Fan, Jiwen

    Aerosol particles can affect cloud microphysical properties by serving as ice nuclei (IN). Large uncertainties exist in the ice nucleation parameterizations (INPs) used in current climate models. In this Part II paper, to examine the sensitivity of the model predictions to different heterogeneous INPs, WRF-CAM5 simulation using the INP of Niemand et al. (N12) [1] is conducted over East Asia for two full years, 2006 and 2011, and compared with simulation using the INP of Meyers et al. (M92) [2], which is the original INP used in CAM5. M92 calculates the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of icemore » supersaturation, while N12 represents the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of temperature and the number concentrations and surface areas of dust particles. Compared to M92, the WRF-CAM5 simulation with N12 produces significantly higher nucleated ice crystal number concentrations (ICNCs) in the northern domain where dust sources are located, leading to significantly higher cloud ice number and mass concentrations and ice water path, but the opposite is true in the southern domain where temperatures and moistures play a more important role in ice formation. Overall, the simulation with N12 gives lower downward shortwave radiation but higher downward longwave radiation, cloud liquid water path, cloud droplet number concentrations, and cloud optical depth. The increase in cloud optical depth and the decrease in downward solar flux result in a stronger shortwave and longwave cloud forcing, and decreases temperature at 2-m and precipitation. Changes in temperature and radiation lower surface concentrations of OH, O₃, SO₄²⁻, and PM 2.5, but increase surface concentrations of CO, NO₂, and SO₂ over most of the domain. By acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and IN, dust particles have different impacts on cloud water and ice number concentrations, radiation, and temperature at 2-m and precipitation depending on whether the

  18. Application of an Online-Coupled Regional Climate Model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for Examination of Ice Nucleation Schemes: Part II. Sensitivity to Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Parameterizations and Dust Emissions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhang, Yang; Chen, Ying; Fan, Jiwen

    Aerosol particles can affect cloud microphysical properties by serving as ice nuclei (IN). Large uncertainties exist in the ice nucleation parameterizations (INPs) used in current climate models. In this Part II paper, to examine the sensitivity of the model predictions to different heterogeneous INPs, WRF-CAM5 simulation using the INP of Niemand et al. (N12) [1] is conducted over East Asia for two full years, 2006 and 2011, and compared with simulation using the INP of Meyers et al. (M92) [2], which is the original INP used in CAM5. M92 calculates the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of icemore » supersaturation, while N12 represents the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of temperature and the number concentrations and surface areas of dust particles. Compared to M92, the WRF-CAM5 simulation with N12 produces significantly higher nucleated ice crystal number concentrations (ICNCs) in the northern domain where dust sources are located, leading to significantly higher cloud ice number and mass concentrations and ice water path, but the opposite is true in the southern domain where temperatures and moistures play a more important role in ice formation. Overall, the simulation with N12 gives lower downward shortwave radiation but higher downward longwave radiation, cloud liquid water path, cloud droplet number concentrations, and cloud optical depth. The increase in cloud optical depth and the decrease in downward solar flux result in a stronger shortwave and longwave cloud forcing, and decreases temperature at 2-m and precipitation. Changes in temperature and radiation lower surface concentrations of OH, O 3, SO 4 2-, and PM2.5, but increase surface concentrations of CO, NO 2, and SO 2 over most of the domain. By acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and IN, dust particles have different impacts on cloud water and ice number concentrations, radiation, and temperature at 2-m and precipitation depending on whether the dominant

  19. Limb-Enhancer Genie: An accessible resource of accurate enhancer predictions in the developing limb

    DOE PAGES

    Monti, Remo; Barozzi, Iros; Osterwalder, Marco; ...

    2017-08-21

    Epigenomic mapping of enhancer-associated chromatin modifications facilitates the genome-wide discovery of tissue-specific enhancers in vivo. However, reliance on single chromatin marks leads to high rates of false-positive predictions. More sophisticated, integrative methods have been described, but commonly suffer from limited accessibility to the resulting predictions and reduced biological interpretability. Here we present the Limb-Enhancer Genie (LEG), a collection of highly accurate, genome-wide predictions of enhancers in the developing limb, available through a user-friendly online interface. We predict limb enhancers using a combination of > 50 published limb-specific datasets and clusters of evolutionarily conserved transcription factor binding sites, taking advantage ofmore » the patterns observed at previously in vivo validated elements. By combining different statistical models, our approach outperforms current state-of-the-art methods and provides interpretable measures of feature importance. Our results indicate that including a previously unappreciated score that quantifies tissue-specific nuclease accessibility significantly improves prediction performance. We demonstrate the utility of our approach through in vivo validation of newly predicted elements. Moreover, we describe general features that can guide the type of datasets to include when predicting tissue-specific enhancers genome-wide, while providing an accessible resource to the general biological community and facilitating the functional interpretation of genetic studies of limb malformations.« less

  20. Ice Bridge Antarctic Sea Ice

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2009-10-21

    Sea ice is seen out the window of NASA's DC-8 research aircraft as it flies 2,000 feet above the Bellingshausen Sea in West Antarctica on Wednesday, Oct., 21, 2009. This was the fourth science flight of NASA’s Operation Ice Bridge airborne Earth science mission to study Antarctic ice sheets, sea ice, and ice shelves. Photo Credit: (NASA/Jane Peterson)

  1. Data assimilation and prognostic whole ice sheet modelling with the variationally derived, higher order, open source, and fully parallel ice sheet model VarGlaS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brinkerhoff, D. J.; Johnson, J. V.

    2013-07-01

    We introduce a novel, higher order, finite element ice sheet model called VarGlaS (Variational Glacier Simulator), which is built on the finite element framework FEniCS. Contrary to standard procedure in ice sheet modelling, VarGlaS formulates ice sheet motion as the minimization of an energy functional, conferring advantages such as a consistent platform for making numerical approximations, a coherent relationship between motion and heat generation, and implicit boundary treatment. VarGlaS also solves the equations of enthalpy rather than temperature, avoiding the solution of a contact problem. Rather than include a lengthy model spin-up procedure, VarGlaS possesses an automated framework for model inversion. These capabilities are brought to bear on several benchmark problems in ice sheet modelling, as well as a 500 yr simulation of the Greenland ice sheet at high resolution. VarGlaS performs well in benchmarking experiments and, given a constant climate and a 100 yr relaxation period, predicts a mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet that matches present-day observations of mass loss. VarGlaS predicts a thinning in the interior and thickening of the margins of the ice sheet.

  2. The Norwegian remote sensing experiment (Norsex) in a marginal ice zone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farrelly, B.; Johannessen, J.; Johannessen, O. M.; Svendson, E.; Kloster, K.; Horjen, I.; Campbell, W. J.; Crawford, J.; Harrington, R.; Jones, L.

    1981-01-01

    Passive and active microwave measurements from surface based, airborne, and satellite instruments were obtained together with surface observations northwest of Svalbard. Emissivities of different ice patches in the ice edge region over the spectral range from 4.9 to 94 GHz are presented. The combination of a 6.6 GHz microwave radiometer with a 14.6 GHz scatterometer demonstrates the usefulness of an active/passive system in ice classification. A variety of mesoscale features under different meteorological conditions is revealed by a 1.36 GHz synthetic aperture radar. Ice edge location by Nimbus 7 scanning multifrequency microwave radiometer is shown accurate to 10 km when the 37 GHz horizontal polarized channel is used.

  3. Tracking and Predicting Fine Scale Sea Ice Motion by Constructing Super-Resolution Images and Fusing Multiple Satellite Sensors

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    COVERED 00-00-2013 to 00-00-2013 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Tracking and Predicting Fine Scale Sea Ice Motion by Constructing Super-Resolution Images...limited, but potentially provide more detailed data. Initial assessments have been made on MODIS data in terms of its suitability. While clouds obscure...estimates. 2 Data from Aqua, Terra, and Suomi NPP satellites were investigated. Aqua and Terra are older satellites that fly the MODIS instrument

  4. Modeling the fracture of ice sheets on parallel computers.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Waisman, Haim; Bell, Robin; Keyes, David

    2010-03-01

    The objective of this project is to investigate the complex fracture of ice and understand its role within larger ice sheet simulations and global climate change. At the present time, ice fracture is not explicitly considered within ice sheet models due in part to large computational costs associated with the accurate modeling of this complex phenomena. However, fracture not only plays an extremely important role in regional behavior but also influences ice dynamics over much larger zones in ways that are currently not well understood. Dramatic illustrations of fracture-induced phenomena most notably include the recent collapse of ice shelves inmore » Antarctica (e.g. partial collapse of the Wilkins shelf in March of 2008 and the diminishing extent of the Larsen B shelf from 1998 to 2002). Other fracture examples include ice calving (fracture of icebergs) which is presently approximated in simplistic ways within ice sheet models, and the draining of supraglacial lakes through a complex network of cracks, a so called ice sheet plumbing system, that is believed to cause accelerated ice sheet flows due essentially to lubrication of the contact surface with the ground. These dramatic changes are emblematic of the ongoing change in the Earth's polar regions and highlight the important role of fracturing ice. To model ice fracture, a simulation capability will be designed centered around extended finite elements and solved by specialized multigrid methods on parallel computers. In addition, appropriate dynamic load balancing techniques will be employed to ensure an approximate equal amount of work for each processor.« less

  5. Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting.

    PubMed

    Serreze, Mark C; Stroeve, Julienne

    2015-07-13

    September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  6. Combining Structural Modeling with Ensemble Machine Learning to Accurately Predict Protein Fold Stability and Binding Affinity Effects upon Mutation

    PubMed Central

    Garcia Lopez, Sebastian; Kim, Philip M.

    2014-01-01

    Advances in sequencing have led to a rapid accumulation of mutations, some of which are associated with diseases. However, to draw mechanistic conclusions, a biochemical understanding of these mutations is necessary. For coding mutations, accurate prediction of significant changes in either the stability of proteins or their affinity to their binding partners is required. Traditional methods have used semi-empirical force fields, while newer methods employ machine learning of sequence and structural features. Here, we show how combining both of these approaches leads to a marked boost in accuracy. We introduce ELASPIC, a novel ensemble machine learning approach that is able to predict stability effects upon mutation in both, domain cores and domain-domain interfaces. We combine semi-empirical energy terms, sequence conservation, and a wide variety of molecular details with a Stochastic Gradient Boosting of Decision Trees (SGB-DT) algorithm. The accuracy of our predictions surpasses existing methods by a considerable margin, achieving correlation coefficients of 0.77 for stability, and 0.75 for affinity predictions. Notably, we integrated homology modeling to enable proteome-wide prediction and show that accurate prediction on modeled structures is possible. Lastly, ELASPIC showed significant differences between various types of disease-associated mutations, as well as between disease and common neutral mutations. Unlike pure sequence-based prediction methods that try to predict phenotypic effects of mutations, our predictions unravel the molecular details governing the protein instability, and help us better understand the molecular causes of diseases. PMID:25243403

  7. Leipzig Ice Nucleation chamber Comparison (LINC): intercomparison of four online ice nucleation counters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burkert-Kohn, Monika; Wex, Heike; Welti, André; Hartmann, Susan; Grawe, Sarah; Hellner, Lisa; Herenz, Paul; Atkinson, James D.; Stratmann, Frank; Kanji, Zamin A.

    2017-09-01

    Ice crystal formation in atmospheric clouds has a strong effect on precipitation, cloud lifetime, cloud radiative properties, and thus the global energy budget. Primary ice formation above 235 K is initiated by nucleation on seed aerosol particles called ice-nucleating particles (INPs). Instruments that measure the ice-nucleating potential of aerosol particles in the atmosphere need to be able to accurately quantify ambient INP concentrations. In the last decade several instruments have been developed to investigate the ice-nucleating properties of aerosol particles and to measure ambient INP concentrations. Therefore, there is a need for intercomparisons to ensure instrument differences are not interpreted as scientific findings.In this study, we intercompare the results from parallel measurements using four online ice nucleation chambers. Seven different aerosol types are tested including untreated and acid-treated mineral dusts (microcline, which is a K-feldspar, and kaolinite), as well as birch pollen washing waters. Experiments exploring heterogeneous ice nucleation above and below water saturation are performed to cover the whole range of atmospherically relevant thermodynamic conditions that can be investigated with the intercompared chambers. The Leipzig Aerosol Cloud Interaction Simulator (LACIS) and the Portable Immersion Mode Cooling chAmber coupled to the Portable Ice Nucleation Chamber (PIMCA-PINC) performed measurements in the immersion freezing mode. Additionally, two continuous-flow diffusion chambers (CFDCs) PINC and the Spectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN) are used to perform measurements below and just above water saturation, nominally presenting deposition nucleation and condensation freezing.The results of LACIS and PIMCA-PINC agree well over the whole range of measured frozen fractions (FFs) and temperature. In general PINC and SPIN compare well and the observed differences are explained by the ice crystal growth and different residence times in

  8. Toward accurate prediction of pKa values for internal protein residues: the importance of conformational relaxation and desolvation energy.

    PubMed

    Wallace, Jason A; Wang, Yuhang; Shi, Chuanyin; Pastoor, Kevin J; Nguyen, Bao-Linh; Xia, Kai; Shen, Jana K

    2011-12-01

    Proton uptake or release controls many important biological processes, such as energy transduction, virus replication, and catalysis. Accurate pK(a) prediction informs about proton pathways, thereby revealing detailed acid-base mechanisms. Physics-based methods in the framework of molecular dynamics simulations not only offer pK(a) predictions but also inform about the physical origins of pK(a) shifts and provide details of ionization-induced conformational relaxation and large-scale transitions. One such method is the recently developed continuous constant pH molecular dynamics (CPHMD) method, which has been shown to be an accurate and robust pK(a) prediction tool for naturally occurring titratable residues. To further examine the accuracy and limitations of CPHMD, we blindly predicted the pK(a) values for 87 titratable residues introduced in various hydrophobic regions of staphylococcal nuclease and variants. The predictions gave a root-mean-square deviation of 1.69 pK units from experiment, and there were only two pK(a)'s with errors greater than 3.5 pK units. Analysis of the conformational fluctuation of titrating side-chains in the context of the errors of calculated pK(a) values indicate that explicit treatment of conformational flexibility and the associated dielectric relaxation gives CPHMD a distinct advantage. Analysis of the sources of errors suggests that more accurate pK(a) predictions can be obtained for the most deeply buried residues by improving the accuracy in calculating desolvation energies. Furthermore, it is found that the generalized Born implicit-solvent model underlying the current CPHMD implementation slightly distorts the local conformational environment such that the inclusion of an explicit-solvent representation may offer improvement of accuracy. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  9. LIVVkit 2: An extensible land ice verification and validation toolkit for comparing observations and models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennedy, J. H.; Bennett, A. R.; Evans, K. J.; Fyke, J. G.; Vargo, L.; Price, S. F.; Hoffman, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    Accurate representation of ice sheets and glaciers are essential for robust predictions of arctic climate within Earth System models. Verification and Validation (V&V) is a set of techniques used to quantify the correctness and accuracy of a model, which builds developer/modeler confidence, and can be used to enhance the credibility of the model. Fundamentally, V&V is a continuous process because each model change requires a new round of V&V testing. The Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) development community is actively developing LIVVkit, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit, which is designed to easily integrate into an ice-sheet model's development workflow (on both personal and high-performance computers) to provide continuous V&V testing.LIVVkit is a robust and extensible python package for V&V, which has components for both software V&V (construction and use) and model V&V (mathematics and physics). The model Verification component is used, for example, to verify model results against community intercomparisons such as ISMIP-HOM. The model validation component is used, for example, to generate a series of diagnostic plots showing the differences between model results against observations for variables such as thickness, surface elevation, basal topography, surface velocity, surface mass balance, etc. Because many different ice-sheet models are under active development, new validation datasets are becoming available, and new methods of analysing these models are actively being researched, LIVVkit includes a framework to easily extend the model V&V analyses by ice-sheet modelers. This allows modelers and developers to develop evaluations of parameters, implement changes, and quickly see how those changes effect the ice-sheet model and earth system model (when coupled). Furthermore, LIVVkit outputs a portable hierarchical website allowing evaluations to be easily shared, published, and analysed throughout the arctic and Earth system communities.

  10. A Model to Assess the Risk of Ice Accretion Due to Ice Crystal Ingestion in a Turbofan Engine and its Effects on Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.; Wright, William B.; Struk, Peter M.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that were attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was one or more of the following anomalies: degraded engine performance, engine roll back, compressor surge and stall, and flameout of the combustor. The main focus of this research is the development of a computational tool that can estimate whether there is a risk of ice accretion by tracking key parameters through the compression system blade rows at all engine operating points within the flight trajectory. The tool has an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, coupled with a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor blade rows. Assumptions are made to predict the complex physics involved in engine icing. Specifically, the code does not directly estimate ice accretion and does not have models for particle breakup or erosion. Two key parameters have been suggested as conditions that must be met at the same location for ice accretion to occur: the local wet-bulb temperature to be near freezing or below and the local melt ratio must be above 10%. These parameters were deduced from analyzing laboratory icing test data and are the criteria used to predict the possibility of ice accretion within an engine including the specific blade row where it could occur. Once the possibility of accretion is determined from these parameters, the degree of blockage due to ice accretion on the local stator vane can be estimated from an empirical model of ice growth rate and time spent at that operating point in the flight trajectory. The computational tool can be used to assess specific turbine engines to their susceptibility to

  11. Rime ice accretion and its effect on airfoil performance. Ph.D. Thesis. Final Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bragg, M. B.

    1982-01-01

    A methodology was developed to predict the growth of rime ice, and the resulting aerodynamic penalty on unprotected, subcritical, airfoil surfaces. The system of equations governing the trajectory of a water droplet in the airfoil flowfield is developed and a numerical solution is obtained to predict the mass flux of super cooled water droplets freezing on impact. A rime ice shape is predicted. The effect of time on the ice growth is modeled by a time-stepping procedure where the flowfield and droplet mass flux are updated periodically through the ice accretion process. Two similarity parameters, the trajectory similarity parameter and accumulation parameter, are found to govern the accretion of rime ice. In addition, an analytical solution is presented for Langmuir's classical modified inertia parameter. The aerodynamic evaluation of the effect of the ice accretion on airfoil performance is determined using an existing airfoil analysis code with empirical corrections. The change in maximum lift coefficient is found from an analysis of the new iced airfoil shape. The drag correction needed due to the severe surface roughness is formulated from existing iced airfoil and rough airfoil data. A small scale wind tunnel test was conducted to determine the change in airfoil performance due to a simulated rime ice shape.

  12. Waterway Ice Thickness Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    The ship on the opposite page is a U. S. Steel Corporation tanker cruising through the ice-covered waters of the Great Lakes in the dead of winter. The ship's crew is able to navigate safely by plotting courses through open water or thin ice, a technique made possible by a multi-agency technology demonstration program in which NASA is a leading participant. Traditionally, the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System is closed to shipping for more than three months of winter season because of ice blockage, particularly fluctuations in the thickness and location of ice cover due to storms, wind, currents and variable temperatures. Shippers have long sought a system of navigation that would allow year-round operation on the Lakes and produce enormous economic and fuel conservation benefits. Interrupted operations require that industrial firms stockpile materials to carry them through the impassable months, which is costly. Alternatively, they must haul cargos by more expensive overland transportation. Studies estimate the economic benefits of year-round Great Lakes shipping in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually and fuel consumption savings in the tens of millions of gallons. Under Project Icewarn, NASA, the U.S. Coast Guard and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration collaborated in development and demonstration of a system that permits safe year-round operations. It employs airborne radars, satellite communications relay and facsimile transmission to provide shippers and ships' masters up-to-date ice charts. Lewis Research Center contributed an accurate methods of measuring ice thickness by means of a special "short-pulse" type of radar. In a three-year demonstration program, Coast Guard aircraft equipped with Side-Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR) flew over the Great Lakes three or four times a week. The SLAR, which can penetrate clouds, provided large area readings of the type and distribution of ice cover. The information was supplemented by short

  13. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H.; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of < 1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred on

  14. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few

  15. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

    PubMed Central

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H.; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

    2018-01-01

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework – the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) – that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the

  16. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet.

    PubMed

    Price, Stephen F; Hoffman, Matthew J; Bonin, Jennifer A; Howat, Ian M; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P; Evans, Katherine J; Kennedy, Joseph H; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G; Tuminaro, Raymond S; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Nowicki, Sophie M J

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past

  17. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

    DOE PAGES

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; ...

    2017-01-17

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few

  18. An Ice Sheet Model Validation Framework for the Greenland Ice Sheet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey R.; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; hide

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of less than 1 meter). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred

  19. Retrieval of ice cloud properties from Himawari-8 satellite measurements by Voronoi ice particle model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Letu, H.; Nagao, T. M.; Nakajima, T. Y.; Ishimoto, H.; Riedi, J.; Shang, H.

    2017-12-01

    Ice cloud property product from satellite measurements is applicable in climate change study, numerical weather prediction, as well as atmospheric study. Ishimoto et al., (2010) and Letu et al., (2016) developed a single scattering property of the highly irregular ice particle model, called the Voronoi model for developing ice cloud product of the GCOM-C satellite program. It is investigated that Voronoi model has a good performance on retrieval of the ice cloud properties by comparing it with other well-known scattering models. Cloud property algorithm (Nakajima et al., 1995, Ishida and Nakajima., 2009, Ishimoto et al., 2009, Letu et al., 2012, 2014, 2016) of the GCOM-C satellite program is improved to produce the Himawari-8/AHI cloud products based on the variation of the solar zenith angle. Himawari-8 is the new-generational geostationary meteorological satellite, which is successfully launched by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) on 7 October 2014. In this study, ice cloud optical and microphysical properties are simulated from RSTAR radiative transfer code by using various model. Scattering property of the Voronoi model is investigated for developing the AHI ice cloud products. Furthermore, optical and microphysical properties of the ice clouds are retrieved from Himawari-8/AHI satellite measurements. Finally, retrieval results from Himawari-8/AHI are compared to MODIS-C6 cloud property products for validation of the AHI cloud products.

  20. Heterogeneous nucleation of ice on carbon surfaces.

    PubMed

    Lupi, Laura; Hudait, Arpa; Molinero, Valeria

    2014-02-26

    Atmospheric aerosols can promote the heterogeneous nucleation of ice, impacting the radiative properties of clouds and Earth's climate. The experimental investigation of heterogeneous freezing of water droplets by carbonaceous particles reveals widespread ice freezing temperatures. It is not known which structural and chemical characteristics of soot account for the variability in ice nucleation efficiency. Here we use molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the nucleation of ice from liquid water in contact with graphitic surfaces. We find that atomically flat carbon surfaces promote heterogeneous nucleation of ice, while molecularly rough surfaces with the same hydrophobicity do not. Graphitic surfaces and other surfaces that promote ice nucleation induce layering in the interfacial water, suggesting that the order imposed by the surface on liquid water may play an important role in the heterogeneous nucleation mechanism. We investigate a large set of graphitic surfaces of various dimensions and radii of curvature and find that variations in nanostructures alone could account for the spread in the freezing temperatures of ice on soot in experiments. We conclude that a characterization of the nanostructure of soot is needed to predict its ice nucleation efficiency.

  1. Prognostic breast cancer signature identified from 3D culture model accurately predicts clinical outcome across independent datasets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Martin, Katherine J.; Patrick, Denis R.; Bissell, Mina J.

    2008-10-20

    One of the major tenets in breast cancer research is that early detection is vital for patient survival by increasing treatment options. To that end, we have previously used a novel unsupervised approach to identify a set of genes whose expression predicts prognosis of breast cancer patients. The predictive genes were selected in a well-defined three dimensional (3D) cell culture model of non-malignant human mammary epithelial cell morphogenesis as down-regulated during breast epithelial cell acinar formation and cell cycle arrest. Here we examine the ability of this gene signature (3D-signature) to predict prognosis in three independent breast cancer microarray datasetsmore » having 295, 286, and 118 samples, respectively. Our results show that the 3D-signature accurately predicts prognosis in three unrelated patient datasets. At 10 years, the probability of positive outcome was 52, 51, and 47 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 91, 75, and 71 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature for the three datasets, respectively (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, p<0.05). Hazard ratios for poor outcome were 5.5 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2, p<0.0001), 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.6, p<0.0001) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p = 0.016) and remained significant for the two larger datasets when corrected for estrogen receptor (ER) status. Hence the 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome in both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, though individual genes differed in their prognostic ability in the two subtypes. Genes that were prognostic in ER+ patients are AURKA, CEP55, RRM2, EPHA2, FGFBP1, and VRK1, while genes prognostic in ER patients include ACTB, FOXM1 and SERPINE2 (Kaplan-Meier p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis in the largest dataset showed that the 3D-signature was a strong independent factor in predicting breast cancer outcome. The 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome across multiple datasets and holds

  2. Maiden Voyage of the Under-Ice Float

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shcherbina, A.; D'Asaro, E. A.; Light, B.; Deming, J. W.; Rehm, E.

    2016-02-01

    The Under-Ice Float (UIF) is a new autonomous platform for sea ice and upper ocean observations in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). UIF is based on the Mixed Layer Lagrangian Float design, inheriting its accurate buoyancy control and relatively heavy payload capability. A major challenge for sustained autonomous observations in the MIZ is detection of open water for navigation and telemetry surfacings. UIF employs the new surface classification algorithm based on the spectral analysis of surface roughness sensed by an upward-looking sonar. A prototype UIF was deployed in the MIZ of the central Arctic Ocean in late August 2015. The main payload of the first UIF was a bio-optical suit consisting of upward- and downward hyperspectral radiometers; temperature, salinity, chlorophyll, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen sensors, and a high-definition photo camera. In the early stages of its mission, the float successfully avoided ice, detected leads, surfaced in open water, and transmitted data and photographs. We will present the analysis of these observations from the full UIF mission extending into the freeze-up season.

  3. Ice sheet margins and ice shelves

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, R. H.

    1984-01-01

    The effect of climate warming on the size of ice sheet margins in polar regions is considered. Particular attention is given to the possibility of a rapid response to warming on the order of tens to hundreds of years. It is found that the early response of the polar regions to climate warming would be an increase in the area of summer melt on the ice sheets and ice shelves. For sufficiently large warming (5-10C) the delayed effects would include the breakup of the ice shelves by an increase in ice drainage rates, particularly from the ice sheets. On the basis of published data for periodic changes in the thickness and melting rates of the marine ice sheets and fjord glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, it is shown that the rate of retreat (or advance) of an ice sheet is primarily determined by: bedrock topography; the basal conditions of the grounded ice sheet; and the ice shelf condition downstream of the grounding line. A program of satellite and ground measurements to monitor the state of ice sheet equilibrium is recommended.

  4. Using Laboratory Experiments to Improve Ice-Ocean Parameterizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McConnochie, C. D.; Kerr, R. C.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical models of ice-ocean interactions are typically unable to resolve the transport of heat and salt to the ice face. Instead, models rely upon parameterizations that have not been sufficiently validated by observations. Recent laboratory experiments of ice-saltwater interactions allow us to test the standard parameterization of heat and salt transport to ice faces - the three-equation model. The three-equation model predicts that the melt rate is proportional to the fluid velocity while the experimental results typically show that the melt rate is independent of the fluid velocity. By considering an analysis of the boundary layer that forms next to a melting ice face, we suggest a resolution to this disagreement. We show that the three-equation model makes the implicit assumption that the thickness of the diffusive sublayer next to the ice is set by a shear instability. However, at low flow velocities, the sublayer is instead set by a convective instability. This distinction leads to a threshold velocity of approximately 4 cm/s at geophysically relevant conditions, above which the form of the parameterization should be valid. In contrast, at flow speeds below 4 cm/s, the three-equation model will underestimate the melt rate. By incorporating such a minimum velocity into the three-equation model, predictions made by numerical simulations could be easily improved.

  5. Calcium carbonate as ikaite crystals in Antarctic sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dieckmann, Gerhard S.; Nehrke, Gernot; Papadimitriou, Stathys; Göttlicher, Jörg; Steininger, Ralph; Kennedy, Hilary; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter; Thomas, David N.

    2008-04-01

    We report on the discovery of the mineral ikaite (CaCO3.6H2O) in sea-ice from the Southern Ocean. The precipitation of CaCO3 during the freezing of seawater has previously been predicted from thermodynamic modelling, indirect measurements, and has been documented in artificial sea ice during laboratory experiments but has not been reported for natural sea-ice. It is assumed that CaCO3 formation in sea ice may be important for a sea ice-driven carbon pump in ice-covered oceanic waters. Without direct evidence of CaCO3 precipitation in sea ice, its role in this and other processes has remained speculative. The discovery of CaCO3.6H2O crystals in natural sea ice provides the necessary evidence for the evaluation of previous assumptions and lays the foundation for further studies to help elucidate the role of ikaite in the carbon cycle of the seasonally sea ice-covered regions

  6. Simulations of coupled, Antarctic ice-ocean evolution using POP2x and BISICLES (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, S. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Martin, D. F.; Maltrud, M. E.; Hoffman, M. J.

    2013-12-01

    We present initial results from Antarctic, ice-ocean coupled simulations using large-scale ocean circulation and land ice evolution models. The ocean model, POP2x is a modified version of POP, a fully eddying, global-scale ocean model (Smith and Gent, 2002). POP2x allows for circulation beneath ice shelf cavities using the method of partial top cells (Losch, 2008). Boundary layer physics, which control fresh water and salt exchange at the ice-ocean interface, are implemented following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (1999), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008; Kimura et al., 2013) and with results from other idealized ice-ocean coupling test cases (e.g., Goldberg et al., 2012). The land ice model, BISICLES (Cornford et al., 2012), includes a 1st-order accurate momentum balance (L1L2) and uses block structured, adaptive-mesh refinement to more accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. For idealized test cases focused on marine-ice sheet dynamics, BISICLES output compares very favorably relative to simulations based on the full, nonlinear Stokes momentum balance (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013). Here, we present large-scale (southern ocean) simulations using POP2x with fixed ice shelf geometries, which are used to obtain and validate modeled submarine melt rates against observations. These melt rates are, in turn, used to force evolution of the BISICLES model. An offline-coupling scheme, which we compare with the ice-ocean coupling work of Goldberg et al. (2012), is then used to sequentially update the sub-shelf cavity geometry seen by POP2x.

  7. Constraining proposed combinations of ice history and Earth rheology using VLBI determined baseline length rates in North America

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Davis, J. L.; Shapiro, I. I.

    1993-01-01

    We predict the present-day rates of change of the lengths of 19 North American baselines due to the glacial isostatic adjustment process. Contrary to previously published research, we find that the three dimensional motion of each of the sites defining a baseline, rather than only the radial motions of these sites, needs to be considered to obtain an accurate estimate of the rate of change of the baseline length. Predictions are generated using a suite of Earth models and late Pleistocene ice histories, these include specific combinations of the two which have been proposed in the literature as satisfying a variety of rebound related geophysical observations from the North American region. A number of these published models are shown to predict rates which differ significantly from the VLBI observations.

  8. Constraining proposed combinations of ice history and earth rheology using VLBI determined baseline length rates in North America

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Davis, J. L.; Shapiro, I. I.

    1993-01-01

    We predict the present-day rates of change of the lengths of 19 North American baselines due to the glacial isostatic adjustment process. Contrary to previously published research, we find that the three-dimensional motion of each of the sites defining a baseline, rather than only the radial motions of these sites, needs to be considered to obtain an accurate estimate of the rate of change of the baseline length. Predictions are generated using a suite of Earth models and late Pleistocene ice histories; these include specific combinations of the two which have been proposed in the literature as satisfying a variety of rebound related geophysical observations from the North American region. A number of these published models are shown to predict rates which differ significantly from the Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) observations.

  9. Towards a Universal Calving Law: Modeling Ice Shelves Using Damage Mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitcomb, M.; Bassis, J. N.; Price, S. F.; Lipscomb, W. H.

    2017-12-01

    Modeling iceberg calving from ice shelves and ice tongues is a particularly difficult problem in glaciology because of the wide range of observed calving rates. Ice shelves naturally calve large tabular icebergs at infrequent intervals, but may instead calve smaller bergs regularly or disintegrate due to hydrofracturing in warmer conditions. Any complete theory of iceberg calving in ice shelves must be able to generate realistic calving rate values depending on the magnitudes of the external forcings. Here we show that a simple damage evolution law, which represents crevasse distributions as a continuum field, produces reasonable estimates of ice shelf calving rates when added to the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). Our damage formulation is based on a linear stability analysis and depends upon the bulk stress and strain rate in the ice shelf, as well as the surface and basal melt rates. The basal melt parameter in our model enhances crevasse growth near the ice shelf terminus, leading to an increased iceberg production rate. This implies that increasing ocean temperatures underneath ice shelves will drive ice shelf retreat, as has been observed in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. We show that our model predicts broadly correct calving rates for ice tongues ranging in length from 10 km (Erebus) to over 100 km (Drygalski), by matching the computed steady state lengths to observations. In addition, we apply the model to idealized Antarctic ice shelves and show that we can also predict realistic ice shelf extents. Our damage mechanics model provides a promising, computationally efficient way to compute calving fluxes and links ice shelf stability to climate forcing.

  10. On the Formation of Rifts in Ice Shelves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayag, R.; Worster, G.

    2017-12-01

    Ice calving accounts for significant part in the mass loss of present ice sheets. Several processes could lead to calving, among them is the formation of rifts near the fronts of ice shelves. Here we combine laboratory-scale experiments of ice sheets together with theoretical modeling to investigate the formation of rifts in ice shelves. We model the deformation of ice with a thin viscous film that is driven axisymmetrically by buoyancy. When the viscous fluid intrudes a bath of an inviscid fluid that represents the ocean, the circular symmetry of the front breaks up into a set of tongues with a characteristic wavelength that coarsens over time, a pattern that is reminiscent of ice rifts. Theoretically, we model the formation of rifts as a hydrodynamic instability of powerlaw fluid. Our model demonstrates the formation of rifts and the coarsening of the characteristic wavelength, and predicts coarsening transition times that are consistent with our experimental measurements.

  11. Providing Real-time Sea Ice Modeling Support to the U.S. Coast Guard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allard, Richard; Dykes, James; Hebert, David; Posey, Pamela; Rogers, Erick; Wallcraft, Alan; Phelps, Michael; Smedstad, Ole Martin; Wang, Shouping; Geiszler, Dan

    2016-04-01

    The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) supported the U.S. Coast Guard Research Development Center (RDC) through a demonstration project during the summer and autumn of 2015. Specifically, a modeling system composed of a mesoscale atmospheric model, regional sea ice model, and regional wave model were loosely coupled to provide real-time 72-hr forecasts of environmental conditions for the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas. The system components included a 2-km regional Community Ice CodE (CICE) sea ice model, 15-km Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) atmospheric model, and a 5-km regional WAVEWATCH III wave model. The wave model utilized modeled sea ice concentration fields to incorporate the effects of sea ice on waves. The other modeling components assimilated atmosphere, ocean, and ice observations available from satellite and in situ sources. The modeling system generated daily 72-hr forecasts of synoptic weather (including visibility), ice drift, ice thickness, ice concentration and ice strength for missions within the economic exclusion zone off the coast of Alaska and a transit to the North Pole in support of the National Science Foundation GEOTRACES cruise. Model forecasts graphics were shared on a common web page with selected graphical products made available via ftp for bandwidth limited users. Model ice thickness and ice drift show very good agreement compared with Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Ice Mass Balance buoys. This demonstration served as a precursor to a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave-ice modeling system under development. National Ice Center (NIC) analysts used these model data products (CICE and COAMPS) along with other existing model and satellite data to produce the predicted 48-hr position of the ice edge. The NIC served as a liaison with the RDC and NRL to provide feedback on the model predictions. This evaluation provides a baseline analysis of the current models for future comparison studies

  12. Application of a Third Order Upwind Scheme to Viscous Flow over Clean and Iced Wings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bangalore, A.; Phaengsook, N.; Sankar, L. N.

    1994-01-01

    A 3-D compressible Navier-Stokes solver has been developed and applied to 3-D viscous flow over clean and iced wings. This method uses a third order accurate finite volume scheme with flux difference splitting to model the inviscid fluxes, and second order accurate symmetric differences to model the viscous terms. The effects of turbulence are modeled using a Kappa-epsilon model. In the vicinity of the sold walls the kappa and epsilon values are modeled using Gorski's algebraic model. Sampling results are presented for surface pressure distributions, for untapered swept clean and iced wings made of NACA 0012 airfoil sections. The leading edge of these sections is modified using a simulated ice shape. Comparisons with experimental data are given.

  13. Application of GRACE to the assessment of model-based estimates of monthly Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance (2003-2012)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Wiese, David N.; Larour, Eric Y.; Watkins, Michael M.; Box, Jason E.; Fettweis, Xavier; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2016-09-01

    Quantifying the Greenland Ice Sheet's future contribution to sea level rise is a challenging task that requires accurate estimates of ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. Forward ice sheet models are promising tools for estimating future ice sheet behavior, yet confidence is low because evaluation of historical simulations is challenging due to the scarcity of continental-wide data for model evaluation. Recent advancements in processing of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using Bayesian-constrained mass concentration ("mascon") functions have led to improvements in spatial resolution and noise reduction of monthly global gravity fields. Specifically, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's JPL RL05M GRACE mascon solution (GRACE_JPL) offers an opportunity for the assessment of model-based estimates of ice sheet mass balance (MB) at ˜ 300 km spatial scales. Here, we quantify the differences between Greenland monthly observed MB (GRACE_JPL) and that estimated by state-of-the-art, high-resolution models, with respect to GRACE_JPL and model uncertainties. To simulate the years 2003-2012, we force the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) with anomalies from three different surface mass balance (SMB) products derived from regional climate models. Resulting MB is compared against GRACE_JPL within individual mascons. Overall, we find agreement in the northeast and southwest where MB is assumed to be primarily controlled by SMB. In the interior, we find a discrepancy in trend, which we presume to be related to millennial-scale dynamic thickening not considered by our model. In the northwest, seasonal amplitudes agree, but modeled mass trends are muted relative to GRACE_JPL. Here, discrepancies are likely controlled by temporal variability in ice discharge and other related processes not represented by our model simulations, i.e., hydrological processes and ice-ocean interaction. In the southeast, GRACE_JPL exhibits larger seasonal amplitude than predicted by

  14. MetaPSICOV: combining coevolution methods for accurate prediction of contacts and long range hydrogen bonding in proteins.

    PubMed

    Jones, David T; Singh, Tanya; Kosciolek, Tomasz; Tetchner, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    Recent developments of statistical techniques to infer direct evolutionary couplings between residue pairs have rendered covariation-based contact prediction a viable means for accurate 3D modelling of proteins, with no information other than the sequence required. To extend the usefulness of contact prediction, we have designed a new meta-predictor (MetaPSICOV) which combines three distinct approaches for inferring covariation signals from multiple sequence alignments, considers a broad range of other sequence-derived features and, uniquely, a range of metrics which describe both the local and global quality of the input multiple sequence alignment. Finally, we use a two-stage predictor, where the second stage filters the output of the first stage. This two-stage predictor is additionally evaluated on its ability to accurately predict the long range network of hydrogen bonds, including correctly assigning the donor and acceptor residues. Using the original PSICOV benchmark set of 150 protein families, MetaPSICOV achieves a mean precision of 0.54 for top-L predicted long range contacts-around 60% higher than PSICOV, and around 40% better than CCMpred. In de novo protein structure prediction using FRAGFOLD, MetaPSICOV is able to improve the TM-scores of models by a median of 0.05 compared with PSICOV. Lastly, for predicting long range hydrogen bonding, MetaPSICOV-HB achieves a precision of 0.69 for the top-L/10 hydrogen bonds compared with just 0.26 for the baseline MetaPSICOV. MetaPSICOV is available as a freely available web server at http://bioinf.cs.ucl.ac.uk/MetaPSICOV. Raw data (predicted contact lists and 3D models) and source code can be downloaded from http://bioinf.cs.ucl.ac.uk/downloads/MetaPSICOV. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

  15. Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions in the MIZ: A Lagrangian Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    www.mcgill.ca/meteo/people/tremblay LONG-TERM GOALS 1- Determine the source regions for sea ice in the seasonally ice-covered zones (SIZs...distribution of sea ice cover and transport pathways. 2- Improve our understanding of the strengths and/or limitations of GCM predictions of future...ocean currents, RGPS sea ice deformation, Reanalysis surface wind , surface radiative fluxes, etc. Processing the large datasets involved is a tedious

  16. The Measurement of the Specific Latent Heat of Fusion of Ice: Two Improved Methods.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mak, S. Y.; Chun, C. K. W.

    2000-01-01

    Suggests two methods for measuring the specific latent heat of ice fusion for high school physics laboratories. The first method is an ice calorimeter which is made from simple materials. The second method improves the thermal contact and allows for a more accurate measurement. Lists instructions for both methods. (Author/YDS)

  17. Statistical Analysis of SSMIS Sea Ice Concentration Threshold at the Arctic Sea Ice Edge during Summer Based on MODIS and Ship-Based Observational Data.

    PubMed

    Ji, Qing; Li, Fei; Pang, Xiaoping; Luo, Cong

    2018-04-05

    The threshold of sea ice concentration (SIC) is the basis for accurately calculating sea ice extent based on passive microwave (PM) remote sensing data. However, the PM SIC threshold at the sea ice edge used in previous studies and released sea ice products has not always been consistent. To explore the representable value of the PM SIC threshold corresponding on average to the position of the Arctic sea ice edge during summer in recent years, we extracted sea ice edge boundaries from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea ice product (MOD29 with a spatial resolution of 1 km), MODIS images (250 m), and sea ice ship-based observation points (1 km) during the fifth (CHINARE-2012) and sixth (CHINARE-2014) Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions, and made an overlay and comparison analysis with PM SIC derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS, with a spatial resolution of 25 km) in the summer of 2012 and 2014. Results showed that the average SSMIS SIC threshold at the Arctic sea ice edge based on ice-water boundary lines extracted from MOD29 was 33%, which was higher than that of the commonly used 15% discriminant threshold. The average SIC threshold at sea ice edge based on ice-water boundary lines extracted by visual interpretation from four scenes of the MODIS image was 35% when compared to the average value of 36% from the MOD29 extracted ice edge pixels for the same days. The average SIC of 31% at the sea ice edge points extracted from ship-based observations also confirmed that choosing around 30% as the SIC threshold during summer is recommended for sea ice extent calculations based on SSMIS PM data. These results can provide a reference for further studying the variation of sea ice under the rapidly changing Arctic.

  18. Ice, Ice, Baby!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, C.

    2008-12-01

    The Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) has developed an outreach program based on hands-on activities called "Ice, Ice, Baby". These lessons are designed to teach the science principles of displacement, forces of motion, density, and states of matter. These properties are easily taught through the interesting topics of glaciers, icebergs, and sea level rise in K-8 classrooms. The activities are fun, engaging, and simple enough to be used at science fairs and family science nights. Students who have participated in "Ice, Ice, Baby" have successfully taught these to adults and students at informal events. The lessons are based on education standards which are available on our website www.cresis.ku.edu. This presentation will provide information on the activities, survey results from teachers who have used the material, and other suggested material that can be used before and after the activities.

  19. Quasi-closed phase forward-backward linear prediction analysis of speech for accurate formant detection and estimation.

    PubMed

    Gowda, Dhananjaya; Airaksinen, Manu; Alku, Paavo

    2017-09-01

    Recently, a quasi-closed phase (QCP) analysis of speech signals for accurate glottal inverse filtering was proposed. However, the QCP analysis which belongs to the family of temporally weighted linear prediction (WLP) methods uses the conventional forward type of sample prediction. This may not be the best choice especially in computing WLP models with a hard-limiting weighting function. A sample selective minimization of the prediction error in WLP reduces the effective number of samples available within a given window frame. To counter this problem, a modified quasi-closed phase forward-backward (QCP-FB) analysis is proposed, wherein each sample is predicted based on its past as well as future samples thereby utilizing the available number of samples more effectively. Formant detection and estimation experiments on synthetic vowels generated using a physical modeling approach as well as natural speech utterances show that the proposed QCP-FB method yields statistically significant improvements over the conventional linear prediction and QCP methods.

  20. WegoLoc: accurate prediction of protein subcellular localization using weighted Gene Ontology terms.

    PubMed

    Chi, Sang-Mun; Nam, Dougu

    2012-04-01

    We present an accurate and fast web server, WegoLoc for predicting subcellular localization of proteins based on sequence similarity and weighted Gene Ontology (GO) information. A term weighting method in the text categorization process is applied to GO terms for a support vector machine classifier. As a result, WegoLoc surpasses the state-of-the-art methods for previously used test datasets. WegoLoc supports three eukaryotic kingdoms (animals, fungi and plants) and provides human-specific analysis, and covers several sets of cellular locations. In addition, WegoLoc provides (i) multiple possible localizations of input protein(s) as well as their corresponding probability scores, (ii) weights of GO terms representing the contribution of each GO term in the prediction, and (iii) a BLAST E-value for the best hit with GO terms. If the similarity score does not meet a given threshold, an amino acid composition-based prediction is applied as a backup method. WegoLoc and User's guide are freely available at the website http://www.btool.org/WegoLoc smchiks@ks.ac.kr; dougnam@unist.ac.kr Supplementary data is available at http://www.btool.org/WegoLoc.

  1. Sex-specific lean body mass predictive equations are accurate in the obese paediatric population

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, Lanier B.; Henshaw, Melissa H.; Carter, Janet; Chowdhury, Shahryar M.

    2015-01-01

    Background The clinical assessment of lean body mass (LBM) is challenging in obese children. A sex-specific predictive equation for LBM derived from anthropometric data was recently validated in children. Aim The purpose of this study was to independently validate these predictive equations in the obese paediatric population. Subjects and methods Obese subjects aged 4–21 were analysed retrospectively. Predicted LBM (LBMp) was calculated using equations previously developed in children. Measured LBM (LBMm) was derived from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Agreement was expressed as [(LBMm-LBMp)/LBMm] with 95% limits of agreement. Results Of 310 enrolled patients, 195 (63%) were females. The mean age was 11.8 ± 3.4 years and mean BMI Z-score was 2.3 ± 0.4. The average difference between LBMm and LBMp was −0.6% (−17.0%, 15.8%). Pearson’s correlation revealed a strong linear relationship between LBMm and LBMp (r=0.97, p<0.01). Conclusion This study validates the use of these clinically-derived sex-specific LBM predictive equations in the obese paediatric population. Future studies should use these equations to improve the ability to accurately classify LBM in obese children. PMID:26287383

  2. Accurate prediction of cation-π interaction energy using substituent effects.

    PubMed

    Sayyed, Fareed Bhasha; Suresh, Cherumuttathu H

    2012-06-14

    (M(+))' and ΔV(min). All the Φ-X···M(+) systems showed good agreement between the calculated and predicted E(M(+))() values, suggesting that the ΔV(min) approach to substituent effect is accurate and useful for predicting the interactive behavior of substituted π-systems with cations.

  3. Incorporation of New Convective Ice Microphysics into the NASA GISS GCM and Impacts on Cloud Ice Water Path (IWP) Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elsaesser, Greg; Del Genio, Anthony

    2015-01-01

    The CMIP5 configurations of the GISS Model-E2 GCM simulated a mid- and high latitude ice IWP that decreased by 50 relative to that simulated for CMIP3 (Jiang et al. 2012; JGR). Tropical IWP increased by 15 in CMIP5. While the tropical IWP was still within the published upper-bounds of IWP uncertainty derived using NASA A-Train satellite observations, it was found that the upper troposphere (200 mb) ice water content (IWC) exceeded the published upper-bound by a factor of 2. This was largely driven by IWC in deep-convecting regions of the tropics.Recent advances in the model-E2 convective parameterization have been found to have a substantial impact on tropical IWC. These advances include the development of both a cold pool parameterization (Del Genio et al. 2015) and new convective ice parameterization. In this presentation, we focus on the new parameterization of convective cloud ice that was developed using data from the NASA TC4 Mission. Ice particle terminal velocity formulations now include information from a number of NASA field campaigns. The new parameterization predicts both an ice water mass weighted-average particle diameter and a particle cross sectional area weighted-average size diameter as a function of temperature and ice water content. By assuming a gamma-distribution functional form for the particle size distribution, these two diameter estimates are all that are needed to explicitly predict the distribution of ice particles as a function of particle diameter.GCM simulations with the improved convective parameterization yield a 50 decrease in upper tropospheric IWC, bringing the tropical and global mean IWP climatologies into even closer agreement with the A-Train satellite observation best estimates.

  4. Incorporation of New Convective Ice Microphysics into the NASA GISS GCM and Impacts on Cloud Ice Water Path (IWP) Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elsaesser, G.; Del Genio, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    The CMIP5 configurations of the GISS Model-E2 GCM simulated a mid- and high-latitude ice IWP that decreased by ~50% relative to that simulated for CMIP3 (Jiang et al. 2012; JGR). Tropical IWP increased by ~15% in CMIP5. While the tropical IWP was still within the published upper-bounds of IWP uncertainty derived using NASA A-Train satellite observations, it was found that the upper troposphere (~200 mb) ice water content (IWC) exceeded the published upper-bound by a factor of ~2. This was largely driven by IWC in deep-convecting regions of the tropics. Recent advances in the model-E2 convective parameterization have been found to have a substantial impact on tropical IWC. These advances include the development of both a cold pool parameterization (Del Genio et al. 2015) and new convective ice parameterization. In this presentation, we focus on the new parameterization of convective cloud ice that was developed using data from the NASA TC4 Mission. Ice particle terminal velocity formulations now include information from a number of NASA field campaigns. The new parameterization predicts both an ice water mass weighted-average particle diameter and a particle cross sectional area weighted-average size diameter as a function of temperature and ice water content. By assuming a gamma-distribution functional form for the particle size distribution, these two diameter estimates are all that are needed to explicitly predict the distribution of ice particles as a function of particle diameter. GCM simulations with the improved convective parameterization yield a ~50% decrease in upper tropospheric IWC, bringing the tropical and global mean IWP climatologies into even closer agreement with the A-Train satellite observation best estimates.

  5. Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Petersen, Mark Roger

    The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolutionmore » below ice shelves and near grounding lines.« less

  6. Simulations of Sea-Ice Dynamics Using the Material-Point Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sulsky, D.; Schreyer, H.; Peterson, K.; Nguyen, G.; Coon, G.; Kwok, R.

    2006-01-01

    In recent years, the availability of large volumes of recorded ice motion derived from high-resolution SAR data has provided an amazingly detailed look at the deformation of the ice cover. The deformation is dominated by the appearance of linear kinematic features that have been associated with the presence of leads. These remarkable data put us in a position to begin detailed evaluation of current coupled mechanical and thermodynamic models of sea ice. This presentation will describe the material point method (MPM) for solving these model equations. MPM is a numerical method for continuum mechanics that combines the best aspects of Lagrangian and Eulerian discretizations. The material points provide a Lagrangian description of the ice that models convection naturally. Thus, properties such as ice thickness and compactness are computed in a Lagrangian frame and do not suffer from errors associated with Eulerian advection schemes, such as artificial diffusion, dispersion, or oscillations near discontinuities. This desirable property is illustrated by solving transport of ice in uniform, rotational and convergent velocity fields. Moreover, the ice geometry is represented by unconnected material points rather than a grid. This representation facilitates modeling the large deformations observed in the Arctic, as well as localized deformation along leads, and admits a sharp representation of the ice edge. MPM also easily allows the use of any ice constitutive model. The versatility of MPM is demonstrated by using two constitutive models for simulations of wind-driven ice. The first model is a standard viscous-plastic model with two thickness categories. The MPM solution to the viscous-plastic model agrees with previously published results using finite elements. The second model is a new elastic-decohesive model that explicitly represents leads. The model includes a mechanism to initiate leads, and to predict their orientation and width. The elastic-decohesion model can

  7. Experimental and analytical investigation of a freezing point depressant fluid ice protection system. M.S. Thesis. Final Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albright, A. E.

    1984-01-01

    A glycol-exuding porous leading edge ice protection system was tested in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel. Stainless steel mesh, laser drilled titanium, and composite panels were tested on two general aviation wing sections. Two different glycol-water solutions were evaluated. Minimum glycol flow rates required for anti-icing were obtained as a function of angle of attack, liquid water content, volume median drop diameter, temperature, and velocity. Ice accretions formed after five minutes of icing were shed in three minutes or less using a glycol fluid flow equal to the anti-ice flow rate. Two methods of predicting anti-ice flow rates are presented and compared with a large experimental data base of anti-ice flow rates over a wide range of icing conditions. The first method presented in the ADS-4 document typically predicts flow rates lower than the experimental flow rates. The second method, originally published in 1983, typically predicts flow rates up to 25 percent higher than the experimental flow rates. This method proved to be more consistent between wing-panel configurations. Significant correlation coefficients between the predicted flow rates and the experimental flow rates ranged from .867 to .947.

  8. Analysis of Droplet Size during the Ice Accumulation Phase Of Flight Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Eric James

    2004-01-01

    There are numerous hazards associated with air travel. One of the most serious dangers to the pilot and passengers safety is the result of flying into conditions which are conducive to the formation of ice on the surface of an aircraft. Being a pilot myself I am very aware of the dangers that Icing can pose and the effects it can have on an airplane. A couple of the missions of the Icing branch is to make flying safer with more research to increase our knowledge of how ice effects the aerodynamics of an airfoil, and to increase are knowledge of the weather for better forecasting. The Icing Branch uses three different tools to determine the aerodynamic affects that icing has on a wing. The Icing research tunnel is an efficient way to test various airfoils in a controlled setting. To make sure the data received from the wind tunnel is accurate the Icing branch conducts real flight tests with the DHC-6 Twin Otter. This makes sure that the methods used in the wind tunnel accurately model what happens on the actual aircraft. These two tools are also compared to the LEWICE code which is a program that models the ice shape that would be formed on an airfoil in the particular weather conditions that are input by the user. One benefit of LEWICE is that it is a lot cheaper to run than the wind tunnel or flight tests which make it a nice tool for engineers designing aircraft that don t have the money to spend on icing research. Using all three of these tools is a way to cross check the data received from one and check it against the other two. industries, but it is also looked at by weather analysts who are trying to improve forecasting methods. The best way to avoid the troubles of icing encounters is to not go into it in the first place. By looking over the flight data the analyst can determine which conditions will most likely lead to an icing encounter and then this information will aid forecasters when briefing the pilots on the weather conditions. am looking at the

  9. Dynamic fragmentation of cellular, ice-templated alumina scaffolds

    DOE PAGES

    Tan, Yi Ming; Cervantes, Octavio; Nam, SeanWoo; ...

    2016-01-08

    Here, we examine the dynamic failure of ice-templated freeze-cast alumina scaffolds that are being considered as biomimetic hierarchical structures. Three porosities of alumina freeze-cast structures were fabricated, and a systematic variation in microstructural properties such as lamellar width and thickness was observed with changing porosity. Dynamic impact tests were performed in a light-gas gun to examine the failure properties of these materials under high strain-rate loading. Nearly complete delamination was observed following impact, along with characteristic cracking across the lamellar width. Average fragment size decreases with increasing porosity, and a theoretical model was developed to explain this behavior based onmore » microstructural changes. Using an energy balance between kinetic, strain, and surface energies within a single lamella, we are able to accurately predict the characteristic fragment size using only standard material properties of bulk alumina.« less

  10. Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover.

    PubMed

    Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-05-01

    Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982-2013: range 11.3-65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1-32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica.

  11. connecting the dots between Greenland ice sheet surface melting and ice flow dynamics (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Box, J. E.; Colgan, W. T.; Fettweis, X.; Phillips, T. P.; Stober, M.

    2013-12-01

    . Because water is 'heavier' than ice, water-filled cracks have unlimited capacity to hydraulically ';jack' open fractures, penetrating, fracturing and disaggregating a solid ice body. This process promotes iceberg calving at more than 150, 1km wide marine terminating Greenland glacier fronts. Resulting from a rising trend of surface melting and sea water temperature, meltwater ejection at the underwater front of marine glaciers drives a an increasing turbulent heat exchange between the glacier front and relatively warm sea water melting it faster. Underwater melting promotes an undercutting of the glacier front leading to ice berg calving. Calving through hydrofracture or marine undercutting provide a direct and immediate ice flow speed response mechanism for surface meltwater production. Ice flow speed reacts because calving reduces flow resistance. The above physical processes interact. Cooling shuts these processes down. Negative feedbacks dampen the warming impulse. Live 21 June, 2013 is a new Danish Web site1 that exploits total mass balance rate of decline as a function of albedo to predict GRACE mass rate of change with 80% explained variance. While surface mass balance explains the mass rate of change slightly higher, surface albedo is an observable quantity as is gravity change.

  12. Non-basal dislocations should be accounted for in simulating ice mass flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chauve, T.; Montagnat, M.; Piazolo, S.; Journaux, B.; Wheeler, J.; Barou, F.; Mainprice, D.; Tommasi, A.

    2017-09-01

    Prediction of ice mass flow and associated dynamics is pivotal at a time of climate change. Ice flow is dominantly accommodated by the motion of crystal defects - the dislocations. In the specific case of ice, their observation is not always accessible by means of the classical tools such as X-ray diffraction or transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Part of the dislocation population, the geometrically necessary dislocations (GNDs) can nevertheless be constrained using crystal orientation measurements via electron backscattering diffraction (EBSD) associated with appropriate analyses based on the Nye (1950) approach. The present study uses the Weighted Burgers Vectors, a reduced formulation of the Nye theory that enables the characterization of GNDs. Applied to ice, this method documents, for the first time, the presence of dislocations with non-basal [ c ] or < c + a > Burgers vectors. These [ c ] or < c + a > dislocations represent up to 35% of the GNDs observed in laboratory-deformed ice samples. Our findings offer a more complex and comprehensive picture of the key plasticity processes responsible for polycrystalline ice creep and provide better constraints on the constitutive mechanical laws implemented in ice sheet flow models used to predict the response of Earth ice masses to climate change.

  13. Minimalist Model of Ice Microphysics in Mixed-phase Stratiform Clouds

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yang, F.; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Shaw, Raymond A.

    The question of whether persistent ice crystal precipitation from super cooled layer clouds can be explained by time-dependent, stochastic ice nucleation is explored using an approximate, analytical model, and a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model. The updraft velocity in the cloud defines an accumulation zone, where small ice particles cannot fall out until they are large enough, which will increase the residence time of ice particles in the cloud. Ice particles reach a quasi-steady state between growth by vapor deposition and fall speed at cloud base. The analytical model predicts that ice water content (wi) has a 2.5 power lawmore » relationship with ice number concentration ni. wi and ni from a LES cloud model with stochastic ice nucleation also confirm the 2.5 power law relationship. The prefactor of the power law is proportional to the ice nucleation rate, and therefore provides a quantitative link to observations of ice microphysical properties.« less

  14. Impact of aerosols on ice crystal size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Bin; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Gu, Yu; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Li, Qinbin; Fu, Rong; Huang, Lei; Liu, Xiaohong; Shi, Xiangjun; Su, Hui; He, Cenlin

    2018-01-01

    The interactions between aerosols and ice clouds represent one of the largest uncertainties in global radiative forcing from pre-industrial time to the present. In particular, the impact of aerosols on ice crystal effective radius (Rei), which is a key parameter determining ice clouds' net radiative effect, is highly uncertain due to limited and conflicting observational evidence. Here we investigate the effects of aerosols on Rei under different meteorological conditions using 9-year satellite observations. We find that the responses of Rei to aerosol loadings are modulated by water vapor amount in conjunction with several other meteorological parameters. While there is a significant negative correlation between Rei and aerosol loading in moist conditions, consistent with the "Twomey effect" for liquid clouds, a strong positive correlation between the two occurs in dry conditions. Simulations based on a cloud parcel model suggest that water vapor modulates the relative importance of different ice nucleation modes, leading to the opposite aerosol impacts between moist and dry conditions. When ice clouds are decomposed into those generated from deep convection and formed in situ, the water vapor modulation remains in effect for both ice cloud types, although the sensitivities of Rei to aerosols differ noticeably between them due to distinct formation mechanisms. The water vapor modulation can largely explain the difference in the responses of Rei to aerosol loadings in various seasons. A proper representation of the water vapor modulation is essential for an accurate estimate of aerosol-cloud radiative forcing produced by ice clouds.

  15. Large and Small Droplet Impingement Data on Airfoils and Two Simulated Ice Shapes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papadakis, Michael; Wong, See-Cheuk; Rachman, Arief; Hung, Kuohsing E.; Vu, Giao T.; Bidwell, Colin S.

    2007-01-01

    Water droplet impingement data were obtained at the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) for four wings and one wing with two simulated ice shapes. The wings tested include three 36-in. chord wings (MS(1)-317, GLC-305, and a NACA 652-415) and a 57-in. chord Twin Otter horizontal tail section. The simulated ice shapes were 22.5- and 45-min glaze ice shapes for the Twin Otter horizontal tail section generated using the LEWICE 2.2 ice accretion program. The impingement experiments were performed with spray clouds having median volumetric diameters of 11, 21, 79, 137, and 168 mm. Comparisons to the experimental data were generated which showed good agreement for the clean wings and ice shapes at lower drop sizes. For larger drop sizes LEWICE 2.2 over predicted the collection efficiencies due to droplet splashing effects which were not modeled in the program. Also for the more complex glaze ice shapes interpolation errors resulted in the over prediction of collection efficiencies in cove and shadow regions of ice shapes.

  16. Modeling and Grid Generation of Iced Airfoils

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vickerman, Mary B.; Baez, Marivell; Braun, Donald C.; Hackenberg, Anthony W.; Pennline, James A.; Schilling, Herbert W.

    2007-01-01

    SmaggIce Version 2.0 is a software toolkit for geometric modeling and grid generation for two-dimensional, singleand multi-element, clean and iced airfoils. A previous version of SmaggIce was described in Preparing and Analyzing Iced Airfoils, NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 8 (August 2004), page 32. To recapitulate: Ice shapes make it difficult to generate quality grids around airfoils, yet these grids are essential for predicting ice-induced complex flow. This software efficiently creates high-quality structured grids with tools that are uniquely tailored for various ice shapes. SmaggIce Version 2.0 significantly enhances the previous version primarily by adding the capability to generate grids for multi-element airfoils. This version of the software is an important step in streamlining the aeronautical analysis of ice airfoils using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools. The user may prepare the ice shape, define the flow domain, decompose it into blocks, generate grids, modify/divide/merge blocks, and control grid density and smoothness. All these steps may be performed efficiently even for the difficult glaze and rime ice shapes. Providing the means to generate highly controlled grids near rough ice, the software includes the creation of a wrap-around block (called the "viscous sublayer block"), which is a thin, C-type block around the wake line and iced airfoil. For multi-element airfoils, the software makes use of grids that wrap around and fill in the areas between the viscous sub-layer blocks for all elements that make up the airfoil. A scripting feature records the history of interactive steps, which can be edited and replayed later to produce other grids. Using this version of SmaggIce, ice shape handling and grid generation can become a practical engineering process, rather than a laborious research effort.

  17. Present-day Antarctic ice mass changes and crustal motion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    James, Thomas S.; Ivins, Erik R.

    1995-01-01

    The peak vertical velocities predicted by three realistic, but contrasting, present-day scenarios of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance are found to be of the order of several mm/a. One scenario predicts local uplift rates in excess of 5 mm/a. These rates are small compared to the peak Antarctic vertical velocities of the ICE-3G glacial rebound model, which are in excess of 20 mm/a. If the Holocene Antarctic deglaciation history protrayed in ICE-3G is realistic, and if regional upper mantle viscosity is not an order of magnitude below 10(exp 21) Pa(dot)s, then a vast geographical region in West Antarctica is uplifting at a rate that could be detected by a future Global Positioning System (GPS) campaign. While present-day scenarios predict small vertical crustal velocities, their overall continent-ocean mass exchange is large enough to account for a substantial portion of the observed secular polar motion (omega m(arrow dot)) and time-varying zonal gravity field.

  18. Present-day Antarctic Ice Mass Changes and Crustal Motion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    James, Thomas S.; Ivins, Erik R.

    1995-01-01

    The peak vertical velocities predicted by three realistic, but contrasting, present-day scenarios of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance are found to be of the order of several mm/a. One scenario predicts local uplift rates in excess of 5 mm/a. These rates are small compared to the peak Antarctic vertical velocities of the ICE-3G glacial rebound model, which are in excess of 20 mm/a. If the Holocene Antarctic deglaciation history portrayed in ICE-3G is realistic, and if regional upper mantle viscosity is not an order of magnitude below 10(exp 21) pa s, then a vast geographical region in West Antarctica is uplifting at a rate that could be detected by a future Global Positioning System (GPS) campaign. While present-day scenarios predict small vertical crustal velocities, their overall continent-ocean mass exchange is large enough to account for a substantial portion of the observed secular polar motion ((Omega)m(bar)) and time-varying zonal gravity field J(sub 1).

  19. A novel ice storm manipulation experiment in a northern hardwood forest

    Treesearch

    Lindsey E. Rustad; John L. Campbell

    2012-01-01

    Ice storms are an important natural disturbance within forest ecosystems of the northeastern United States. Current models suggest that the frequency and severity of ice storms may increase in the coming decades in response to changes in climate. Because of the stochastic nature of ice storms and difficulties in predicting their occurrence, most past investigations of...

  20. Accurate predictions of iron redox state in silicate glasses: A multivariate approach using X-ray absorption spectroscopy

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Dyar, M. Darby; McCanta, Molly; Breves, Elly

    2016-03-01

    Pre-edge features in the K absorption edge of X-ray absorption spectra are commonly used to predict Fe3+ valence state in silicate glasses. However, this study shows that using the entire spectral region from the pre-edge into the extended X-ray absorption fine-structure region provides more accurate results when combined with multivariate analysis techniques. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) regression technique yields %Fe3+ values that are accurate to ±3.6% absolute when the full spectral region is employed. This method can be used across a broad range of glass compositions, is easily automated, and is demonstrated to yield accurate resultsmore » from different synchrotrons. It will enable future studies involving X-ray mapping of redox gradients on standard thin sections at 1 × 1 μm pixel sizes.« less