Exploring the bulk in AdS /CFT : A covariant approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelhardt, Netta

2017-03-01

I propose a general, covariant way of defining when one region is "deeper in the bulk" than another. This definition is formulated outside of an event horizon (or in the absence thereof) in generic geometries; it may be applied to both points and surfaces, and it may be used to compare the depth of bulk points or surfaces relative to a particular boundary subregion or relative to the entire boundary. Using the recently proposed "light-cone cut" formalism, the comparative depth between two bulk points can be determined from the singularity structure of Lorentzian correlators in the dual field theory. I prove that, by this definition, causal wedges of progressively larger regions probe monotonically deeper in the bulk. The definition furthermore matches expectations in pure AdS and in static AdS black holes with isotropic spatial slices, where a well-defined holographic coordinate exists. In terms of holographic renormalization group flow, this new definition of bulk depth makes contact with coarse graining over both large distances and long time scales.

Individual Differences in Approach and Avoidance Inclinations Moderate the Effect of Self-Control Depletion on Ad-Lib Drinking

PubMed Central

Schlauch, Robert C.; Christensen, Rita L.; Derrick, Jaye L.; Crane, Cory A.; Collins, R. Lorraine

2015-01-01

Background The current study sought to examine how exerting self-control to inhibit stereotype use affects alcohol consumption. In addition, we sought to expand previous findings via examination of how individual differences in motivations to approach or avoid alcohol consumption interact with self-control depletion to determine the regulation of ad-lib drinking behavior. Methods Sixty-one social drinkers (31 female) were recruited to participate in a socially relevant self-control depletion task in which they were randomly assigned to one of two creative writing conditions: 1) the self-control depletion condition with explicit instructions to refrain from using stereotypes, or 2) the non-depletion condition in which no instructions were given regarding the use of stereotypes. Participants then completed an ad-lib drinking task and self-report questionnaires pertaining to their motivation to consume alcohol. Results As predicted, results indicated a significant three-way interaction between depletion condition, approach inclinations, and avoidance inclinations. Specifically, self-control depletion predicted greater drinking disinhibition (i.e., mean sip size, total alcohol consumption) only among participants high in both approach and avoidance. Conclusions Taken together, results from the current study highlight the importance of both approach and avoidance inclinations in the failure to regulate alcohol consumption following a routine, socially relevant form of self-control depletion. Our results also suggest that the high approach / high avoidance motivational profile may predict the greatest risk among those actively trying to regulate their drinking. PMID:26756800

Stakeholder opinions on the use of the added value approach in siting radioactive waste management facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kojo, Matti; Richardson, Phil

In some countries nuclear waste facility siting programs include social and economic benefits, compensation, local empowerment and motivation measures and other incentives for the potential host community. This can generally be referred to as an 'added value approach'. Demonstration of the safety of a repository is seen as a precondition of an added value approach. Recently much focus has been placed on studying and developing public participation approaches but less on the use of such incentive and community benefit packages, although they are becoming a more common element in many site selection strategies for nuclear waste management facilities. The primarymore » objective of this paper is to report on an ongoing study of stakeholders' opinions of the use of an added value approach in siting a radioactive waste facility in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia. The paper argues that an added value approach should adapt to the interests and needs of stakeholders during different stages of a siting process. The main question posed in the study is as follows: What are the measures which should be included in 'added value approach' according to the stakeholders? The research data consists of stakeholders' responses to a survey focusing on the use of added value (community benefits) and incentives in siting nuclear waste management facilities. The survey involved use of a questionnaire developed as part of the EU-funded IPPA* project in three countries: the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia. (* Implementing Public Participation Approaches in Radioactive Waste Disposal, FP7 Contract Number: 269849). The target audiences for the questionnaires were the stakeholders represented in the national stakeholder groups established to discuss site selection for a nuclear waste repository in their country. A total of 105 questionnaires were sent to the stakeholders between November 2011 and January 2012. 44 questionnaires were returned, resulting in a total response rate

Serious and actionable risks, plus disclosure: Investigating an alternative approach for presenting risk information in prescription drug television advertisements.

PubMed

Betts, Kevin R; Boudewyns, Vanessa; Aikin, Kathryn J; Squire, Claudia; Dolina, Suzanne; Hayes, Jennifer J; Southwell, Brian G

2017-08-02

Broadcast direct-to-consumer (DTC) prescription drug ads that present product claims are required to also present the product's major risks. Debate exists regarding how much information should be included in these major risk statements. Some argue that such statements expose people to unnecessary amounts of information, while others argue that they leave out important information. Examine the impact of type of risk statement (unedited versus serious and actionable risks only) and a disclosure indicating that not all risks are presented on consumers' ability to remember the important risks and benefits of a drug following exposure to a DTC television advertisement (ad). Risk and benefit perceptions, ad-prompted actions, recognition of the disclosure statement, and evaluations of both the disclosure and risk statement were also examined. A web-based experiment was conducted in which US adults who self-reported as having depression (N = 500), insomnia (N = 500), or high cholesterol (N = 500) were randomly assigned to view one of four versions of the television ad, and then complete a questionnaire. The type of risk statement had a significant effect on risk recall and recognition, benefit recognition, perceived risk severity (depression condition only), and perceived benefit magnitude (high cholesterol condition only). Disclosure recognition (using bias-corrected scores) ranged from 63% to 70% across the three illness samples. The revised risk statement improved overall processing of the television ad, as evidenced by improved risk recall and recognition and improved benefit recognition. Further, the presence of the disclosure did not adversely affect consumers' processing of drug risk and benefit information. Therefore, limiting the risks presented in DTC television ads and including a disclosure alerting consumers that not all risks are presented may be an effective strategy for communicating product risks. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Relationship between Added Sugars Consumption and Chronic Disease Risk Factors: Current Understanding.

PubMed

Rippe, James M; Angelopoulos, Theodore J

2016-11-04

Added sugars are a controversial and hotly debated topic. Consumption of added sugars has been implicated in increased risk of a variety of chronic diseases including obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) as well as cognitive decline and even some cancers. Support for these putative associations has been challenged, however, on a variety of fronts. The purpose of the current review is to summarize high impact evidence including systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs), in an attempt to provide an overview of current evidence related to added sugars and health considerations. This paper is an extension of a symposium held at the Experimental Biology 2015 conference entitled "Sweeteners and Health: Current Understandings, Controversies, Recent Research Findings and Directions for Future Research". We conclude based on high quality evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCT), systematic reviews and meta-analyses of cohort studies that singling out added sugars as unique culprits for metabolically based diseases such as obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease appears inconsistent with modern, high quality evidence and is very unlikely to yield health benefits. While it is prudent to consume added sugars in moderation, the reduction of these components of the diet without other reductions of caloric sources seems unlikely to achieve any meaningful benefit.

Cultural variation in antismoking video ads between the United States, Taiwan, and China.

PubMed

Wong, Tzu-Jung; King, Jessica L; Pomeranz, Jamie L

2016-10-01

Antitobacco advertisement components, including types of messages and advertising appeals, have not been evaluated among multinational groups. This study identified and compared the content of antismoking video ads across three countries. We reviewed 86 antismoking video advertisements for the following information: severity of the consequences of smoking, types of risks, appeals to audiences' self-efficacy, benefits of not smoking, targeted social-ecological level and types of message appeal used. Two researchers independently coded each advertisement with an average inter-coder reliability of 0.79.Analyses showed a variety of focuses: smoking-related health risks (86%), severe consequences of smoking (54.7%), self-efficacy beliefs (40.7%) and benefits of not smoking (84.9%). Compared to the United States and Taiwanese ads, Chinese ads were more likely to target at the community level (10% versus 23.3% versus 47.2%). Additionally, 55% of the United States ads used the fear approach, whereas 61.1% of Chinese ads used the social approach. Taiwanese ads were evenly distributed among both approaches. In conclusion, the countries used different targeting strategies and approaches during message delivery. Although China's neighboring country, Taiwan, has many similar cultural aspects, including the same language, they are greatly influenced by US antitobacco campaigns. As a result, Taiwan's tobacco campaigns appear to have similar components to both China and the United States. Further research is warranted to understand the reasons for each method and to examine the effectiveness of the ads in reducing smoking rates. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk reclassification analysis investigating the added value of fatigue to sickness absence predictions.

PubMed

Roelen, Corné A M; Bültmann, Ute; Groothoff, Johan W; Twisk, Jos W R; Heymans, Martijn W

2015-11-01

Prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) have been found to predict high (≥ 30) SA days and high (≥ 3) SA episodes during 1-year follow-up. More predictors of high SA are needed to improve these SA prognostic models. The purpose of this study was to investigate fatigue as new predictor in SA prognostic models by using risk reclassification methods and measures. This was a prospective cohort study with 1-year follow-up of 1,137 office workers. Fatigue was measured at baseline with the 20-item checklist individual strength and added to the existing SA prognostic models. SA days and episodes during 1-year follow-up were retrieved from an occupational health service register. The added value of fatigue was investigated with Net Reclassification Index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) measures. In total, 579 (51 %) office workers had complete data for analysis. Fatigue was prospectively associated with both high SA days and episodes. The NRI revealed that adding fatigue to the SA days model correctly reclassified workers with high SA days, but incorrectly reclassified workers without high SA days. The IDI indicated no improvement in risk discrimination by the SA days model. Both NRI and IDI showed that the prognostic model predicting high SA episodes did not improve when fatigue was added as predictor variable. In the present study, fatigue increased false-positive rates which may reduce the cost-effectiveness of interventions for preventing SA.

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Relationship between Added Sugars Consumption and Chronic Disease Risk Factors: Current Understanding

PubMed Central

Rippe, James M.; Angelopoulos, Theodore J.

2016-01-01

Added sugars are a controversial and hotly debated topic. Consumption of added sugars has been implicated in increased risk of a variety of chronic diseases including obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) as well as cognitive decline and even some cancers. Support for these putative associations has been challenged, however, on a variety of fronts. The purpose of the current review is to summarize high impact evidence including systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs), in an attempt to provide an overview of current evidence related to added sugars and health considerations. This paper is an extension of a symposium held at the Experimental Biology 2015 conference entitled “Sweeteners and Health: Current Understandings, Controversies, Recent Research Findings and Directions for Future Research”. We conclude based on high quality evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCT), systematic reviews and meta-analyses of cohort studies that singling out added sugars as unique culprits for metabolically based diseases such as obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease appears inconsistent with modern, high quality evidence and is very unlikely to yield health benefits. While it is prudent to consume added sugars in moderation, the reduction of these components of the diet without other reductions of caloric sources seems unlikely to achieve any meaningful benefit. PMID:27827899

Spinning AdS loop diagrams: two point functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giombi, Simone; Sleight, Charlotte; Taronna, Massimo

2018-06-01

We develop a systematic approach to evaluating AdS loop amplitudes with spinning legs based on the spectral (or "split") representation of bulk-to-bulk propagators, which re-expresses loop diagrams in terms of spectral integrals and higher-point tree diagrams. In this work we focus on 2pt one-loop Witten diagrams involving totally symmetric fields of arbitrary mass and integer spin. As an application of this framework, we study the contribution to the anomalous dimension of higher-spin currents generated by bubble diagrams in higher-spin gauge theories on AdS.

Preventing the link between SES and high-risk behaviors: "value-added" education, drug use and delinquency in high-risk, urban schools.

PubMed

Tobler, Amy L; Komro, Kelli A; Dabroski, Alexis; Aveyard, Paul; Markham, Wolfgang A

2011-06-01

We examined whether schools achieving better than expected educational outcomes for their students influence the risk of drug use and delinquency among urban, racial/ethnic minority youth. Adolescents (n = 2,621), who were primarily African American and Hispanic and enrolled in Chicago public schools (n = 61), completed surveys in 6th (aged 12) and 8th (aged 14) grades. Value-added education was derived from standardized residuals of regression equations predicting school-level academic achievement and attendance from students' sociodemographic profiles and defined as having higher academic achievement and attendance than that expected given the sociodemographic profile of the schools' student composition. Multilevel logistic regression estimated the effects of value-added education on students' drug use and delinquency. After considering initial risk behavior, value-added education was associated with lower incidence of alcohol, cigarette and marijuana use; stealing; and participating in a group-against-group fight. Significant beneficial effects of value-added education remained for cigarette and marijuana use, stealing and participating in a group-against-group fight after adjustment for individual- and school-level covariates. Alcohol use (past month and heavy episodic) showed marginally significant trends in the hypothesized direction after these adjustments. Inner-city schools may break the links between social disadvantage, drug use and delinquency. Identifying the processes related to value-added education in order to improve school environments is warranted given the high costs associated with individual-level interventions.

Predicting conversion from MCI to AD using resting-state fMRI, graph theoretical approach and SVM.

PubMed

Hojjati, Seyed Hani; Ebrahimzadeh, Ata; Khazaee, Ali; Babajani-Feremi, Abbas

2017-04-15

We investigated identifying patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who progress to Alzheimer's disease (AD), MCI converter (MCI-C), from those with MCI who do not progress to AD, MCI non-converter (MCI-NC), based on resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI). Graph theory and machine learning approach were utilized to predict progress of patients with MCI to AD using rs-fMRI. Eighteen MCI converts (average age 73.6 years; 11 male) and 62 age-matched MCI non-converters (average age 73.0 years, 28 male) were included in this study. We trained and tested a support vector machine (SVM) to classify MCI-C from MCI-NC using features constructed based on the local and global graph measures. A novel feature selection algorithm was developed and utilized to select an optimal subset of features. Using subset of optimal features in SVM, we classified MCI-C from MCI-NC with an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 91.4%, 83.24%, 90.1%, and 0.95, respectively. Furthermore, results of our statistical analyses were used to identify the affected brain regions in AD. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that combines the graph measures (constructed based on rs-fMRI) with machine learning approach and accurately classify MCI-C from MCI-NC. Results of this study demonstrate potential of the proposed approach for early AD diagnosis and demonstrate capability of rs-fMRI to predict conversion from MCI to AD by identifying affected brain regions underlying this conversion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adding Salt to Meals as a Risk Factor of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Radzeviciene, Lina; Ostrauskas, Rytas

2017-01-13

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is thought to arise from the complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors. It is important to identify modifiable risk factors that may help to reduce the risk of diabetes. Data on salt intake and the risk of type 2 diabetes are limited. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between adding salt to prepared meals and the risk of type 2 diabetes. In a case-control study, we included 234 cases, all of whom were patients aged 35-86 years with a newly confirmed diagnosis of T2DM, and 468 controls that were free of the disease. Cases and controls (ratio 1:2) were matched by gender and age (±5 years). A questionnaire was used to collect information on possible risk factors for diabetes. Adding salt to prepared meals was assessed according to: Never, when there was not enough, or almost every time without tasting. The odds ratios (OR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for type 2 diabetes was calculated using a conditional logistic regression. The cases had a higher body mass index and a significantly lower education level compared to the controls. Variables such as waist circumference, body mass index, eating speed, smoking, family history of diabetes, arterial hypertension, plasma triglycerides, educational level, occupational status, morning exercise, marital status, daily urine sodium excretion, and daily energy intake were retained in the models as confounders. After adjusting for possible confounders, an approximately two-fold increased risk of type 2 diabetes was determined in subjects who add salt to prepared meals when "it is not enough" or "almost every time without tasting" (1.82; 95% CI 1.19-2.78; p = 0.006) compared with never adding salt. Presented data suggest the possible relationship between additional adding of salt to prepared meals and an increased risk of type 2 diabetes.

Territory management an appropriate approach for taking into account dynamic risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, M.; Ruegg, J.

2012-04-01

The territorial approach in risk analysis is well established in scientific communications in recent years, especially in the francophone literature. It is an especially appropriate approach for exploring a large number of criteria and factors influencing, on the territory, the composition of the vulnerabilities and risks. In these sense, this approach is appropriate to identify not only risks due to natural hazards but also social and environmental risks. Our case study explores the catastrophic landslide, a collapse of 6 millions cubic meters of rock in Los Chorros, in the municipality of San Cristobal Verapaz-Guatemala, in January 2009. We demonstrate that the same natural hazard has different consequences within this territory and may also increase or even create new vulnerabilities and risks for the population. The analysis shows that the same event can endanger various aspects of the territory: resources, functions (agriculture, or houses uses for example) and allocations and highlights the different types of vulnerabilities that land users (i.e., farmers, merchants transport drivers) face. To resolve a post-disaster situation, the actors choose one vulnerability among a set of vulnerabilities (in a multi-vulnerability context) and with this choice they define their own acceptable risk limits. To give an example, the transport driver choose to reduce the economic vulnerability when going to the local market and crossing the landslide (physical vulnerability). In the context of a developing country with weak development and limited resources, land users that become the Risk managers after the disaster are compelled to prioritize between different actions for reducing risks This study provides a novel approach to risk management by adding a political science and geography dimension through the territory approach for improving our understanding of multi-hazard and multi-risk management. Based on findings from this case study, this work asserts that risk is not

Effects of E-Cigarette Health Warnings and Modified Risk Ad Claims on Adolescent E-Cigarette Craving and Susceptibility.

PubMed

Andrews, J Craig; Mays, Darren; Netemeyer, Richard G; Burton, Scot; Kees, Jeremy

2018-04-16

A between-subjects experiment examines the effects of different warning types and modified risk e-cigarette ad claims on adolescent e-cigarette craving and future e-cigarette susceptibility for two different themes. One theme focuses on nicotine and addiction, and the other on the effects of potentially harmful constituents (e.g., flavored chemicals and lung disease). The effects of warning type (control, text-only, graphic health warning (GHW) and text) and modified risk e-cigarette ad claims (control, exposure reduction, risk reduction) are tested experimentally with two different arms (themes) for a sample of 1,011 adolescents who had tried either e-cigarettes or cigarettes. For addiction, the text-only warning led to significantly less e-cigarette susceptibility than the no warning control condition. As expected, there were no differences between the GHW + text condition and text-only or control conditions for e-cigarette craving. An interaction between warning type and modified risk claims revealed significantly fewer e-cigarette cravings and less susceptibility for the text-only warning and no claim (control) condition than for any other condition. For fatal lung disease, the GHW + text condition led to fewer e-cigarette cravings and less susceptibility than the text-only warning and no warning (control) conditions. Warning type effects can be very different under different themes (e.g., addiction, fatal lung disease). In general, our results point to the effectiveness of the text-only warning for addiction and GHW + text for fatal lung disease. Relative exposure and risk modification claims (e.g., less nicotine; less addicting) tend to undercut addiction warnings. More than one type of e-cigarette warning may be necessary as e-cigarette research evolves. Our results show different warning type effects (e.g., text-only; GHW + text) on e-cigarette craving and future susceptibility for adolescent experimenters depending on the risk theme (e.g., addiction; lung

A Regularized Deep Learning Approach for Clinical Risk Prediction of Acute Coronary Syndrome Using Electronic Health Records.

PubMed

Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong; Liu, Jiquan

2018-05-01

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), as a common and severe cardiovascular disease, is a leading cause of death and the principal cause of serious long-term disability globally. Clinical risk prediction of ACS is important for early intervention and treatment. Existing ACS risk scoring models are based mainly on a small set of hand-picked risk factors and often dichotomize predictive variables to simplify the score calculation. This study develops a regularized stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE) model to stratify clinical risks of ACS patients from a large volume of electronic health records (EHR). To capture characteristics of patients at similar risk levels, and preserve the discriminating information across different risk levels, two constraints are added on SDAE to make the reconstructed feature representations contain more risk information of patients, which contribute to a better clinical risk prediction result. We validate our approach on a real clinical dataset consisting of 3464 ACS patient samples. The performance of our approach for predicting ACS risk remains robust and reaches 0.868 and 0.73 in terms of both AUC and accuracy, respectively. The obtained results show that the proposed approach achieves a competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art models in dealing with the clinical risk prediction problem. In addition, our approach can extract informative risk factors of ACS via a reconstructive learning strategy. Some of these extracted risk factors are not only consistent with existing medical domain knowledge, but also contain suggestive hypotheses that could be validated by further investigations in the medical domain.

AdS6 solutions of type II supergravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apruzzi, Fabio; Fazzi, Marco; Passias, Achilleas; Rosa, Dario; Tomasiello, Alessandro

2014-11-01

Very few AdS6 × M 4 supersymmetric solutions are known: one in massive IIA, and two IIB solutions dual to it. The IIA solution is known to be unique; in this paper, we use the pure spinor approach to give a classification for IIB supergravity. We reduce the problem to two PDEs on a two-dimensional space Σ. M 4 is then a fibration of S 2 over Σ; the metric and fluxes are completely determined in terms of the solution to the PDEs. The results seem likely to accommodate near-horizon limits of ( p, q)-fivebrane webs studied in the literature as a source of CFT5's. We also show that there are no AdS6 solutions in eleven-dimensional supergravity.

Towards a harmonized approach for risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens in the European Union.

PubMed

Crebelli, Riccardo

2006-01-01

The EU Scientific Committees have considered in the past the use of matematical models for human cancer risk estimation not adequately supported by the available scientific knowledge. Therefore, the advice given to risk managers was to reduce the exposure as far as possible, following the as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) principle. However, ALARA does not allow to set priorities for risk management, as it does not take into consideration carcinogenic potency and level of human exposure. For this reason the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has identified as a priority task the development of a transparent, scientically justifiable and harmonized approach for risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens. This approach, proposed at the end of 2005, is based on the definition of the (MOE), i.e. the relationship between a given point of the dose reponse curve in the animal and human exposure. As point of comparison EFSA recommends the BMDL10, i.e. the lower limit of the confidence interval of the Benchmark Dose associated with an incidence of 10% of induced tumors. Based on current scientific knowkedge, EFSA concluded that a MOE of 10000 or greater is associated with a low risk and low priority for risk management actions. The approach proposed does not replace the ALARA. It should find application on food contaminants, process by-product, and other substances unintentionally present in food. On the other hand, it is not intended to provide a tool for the definition of tolerable intake levels for genotoxic carcinogens deliberately added to food.

Added sugars and sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, dietary carbohydrate index and depression risk in the Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra (SUN) Project.

PubMed

Sanchez-Villegas, Almudena; Zazpe, Itziar; Santiago, Susana; Perez-Cornago, Aurora; Martinez-Gonzalez, Miguel A; Lahortiga-Ramos, Francisca

2018-01-01

The association between added sugars or sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and the risk of depression, as well as the role of carbohydrate quality in depression risk, remains unclear. Among 15 546 Spanish university graduates from the Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra (SUN) prospective cohort study, diet was assessed with a validated 136-item semi-quantitative FFQ at baseline and at 10-year follow-up. Cumulative average consumption of added sugars, sweetened drinks and an overall carbohydrate quality index (CQI) were calculated. A better CQI was associated with higher whole-grain consumption and fibre intake and lower glycaemic index and consumption of solid (instead of liquid) carbohydrates. Clinical diagnoses of depression during follow-up were classified as incident cases. Multivariable time-dependent Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of depression according to consumption of added sugars, sweetened drinks and CQI. We observed 769 incident cases of depression. Participants in the highest quartile of added sugars consumption showed a significant increment in the risk of depression (HR=1·35; 95 % CI 1·09, 1·67, P=0·034), whereas those in the highest quartile of CQI (upper quartile of the CQI) showed a relative risk reduction of 30 % compared with those in the lowest quartile of the CQI (HR=0·70; 95 % CI 0·56, 0·88). No significant association between sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and depression risk was found. Higher added sugars and lower quality of carbohydrate consumption were associated with depression risk in the SUN Cohort. Further studies are necessary to confirm the reported results.

An enhanced performance through agent-based secure approach for mobile ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisen, Dhananjay; Sharma, Sanjeev

2018-01-01

This paper proposes an agent-based secure enhanced performance approach (AB-SEP) for mobile ad hoc network. In this approach, agent nodes are selected through optimal node reliability as a factor. This factor is calculated on the basis of node performance features such as degree difference, normalised distance value, energy level, mobility and optimal hello interval of node. After selection of agent nodes, a procedure of malicious behaviour detection is performed using fuzzy-based secure architecture (FBSA). To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, comparative analysis is done with conventional schemes using performance parameters such as packet delivery ratio, throughput, total packet forwarding, network overhead, end-to-end delay and percentage of malicious detection.

Ad hoc vs. Non-ad hoc Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Strategies in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Toyota, Toshiaki; Morimoto, Takeshi; Shiomi, Hiroki; Ando, Kenji; Ono, Koh; Shizuta, Satoshi; Kato, Takao; Saito, Naritatsu; Furukawa, Yutaka; Nakagawa, Yoshihisa; Horie, Minoru; Kimura, Takeshi

2017-03-24

Few studies have evaluated the prevalence and clinical outcomes of ad hoc percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), performing diagnostic coronary angiography and PCI in the same session, in stable coronary artery disease (CAD) patients.Methods and Results:From the CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG registry cohort-2, 6,943 patients were analyzed as having stable CAD and undergoing first PCI. Ad hoc PCI and non-ad hoc PCI were performed in 1,722 (24.8%) and 5,221 (75.1%) patients, respectively. The cumulative 5-year incidence and adjusted risk for all-cause death were not significantly different between the 2 groups (15% vs. 15%, P=0.53; hazard ratio: 1.15, 95% confidence interval: 0.98-1.35, P=0.08). Ad hoc PCI relative to non-ad hoc PCI was associated with neutral risk for myocardial infarction, any coronary revascularization, and bleeding, but was associated with a trend towards lower risk for stroke (hazard ratio: 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.60-1.02, P=0.06). Ad hoc PCI in stable CAD patients was associated with at least comparable 5-year clinical outcomes as with non-ad hoc PCI. Considering patients' preference and the cost-saving, the ad hoc PCI strategy might be a safe and attractive option for patients with stable CAD, although the prevalence of ad hoc PCI was low in the current study population.

Static Einstein-Maxwell Black Holes with No Spatial Isometries in AdS Space.

PubMed

Herdeiro, Carlos A R; Radu, Eugen

2016-11-25

We explicitly construct static black hole solutions to the fully nonlinear, D=4, Einstein-Maxwell-anti-de Sitter (AdS) equations that have no continuous spatial symmetries. These black holes have a smooth, topologically spherical horizon (section), but without isometries, and approach, asymptotically, global AdS spacetime. They are interpreted as bound states of a horizon with the Einstein-Maxwell-AdS solitons recently discovered, for appropriate boundary data. In sharp contrast to the uniqueness results for a Minkowski electrovacuum, the existence of these black holes shows that single, equilibrium, black hole solutions in an AdS electrovacuum admit an arbitrary multipole structure.

[Risk management project: reactive or proactive approach?].

PubMed

Vastola, Pasquale; Saracino, Donato M T

2006-01-01

Risk management in healthcare refers to the process of developing strategies aimed at preventing and controlling the risk of occurrence of errors and harmful events. The final objective is primarily that of increasing patient safety and secondarily, that of reducing the financial burden of adverse events. The implementation of a risk management system is therefore of vital strategic importance. Nevertheless, a fundamental question that needs to be answered in the operational phase is: should a proactive or reactive approach to risk management be taken? In our view, proactive risk management has many advantages over a reactive approach and is therefore preferable. The reactive approach should be taken exclusively to obtain information regarding risk and errors, in the preliminary, as well as monitoring and follow-up phases of the project.

Residential building codes, affordability, and health protection: a risk-tradeoff approach.

PubMed

Hammitt, J K; Belsky, E S; Levy, J I; Graham, J D

1999-12-01

Residential building codes intended to promote health and safety may produce unintended countervailing risks by adding to the cost of construction. Higher construction costs increase the price of new homes and may increase health and safety risks through "income" and "stock" effects. The income effect arises because households that purchase a new home have less income remaining for spending on other goods that contribute to health and safety. The stock effect arises because suppression of new-home construction leads to slower replacement of less safe housing units. These countervailing risks are not presently considered in code debates. We demonstrate the feasibility of estimating the approximate magnitude of countervailing risks by combining the income effect with three relatively well understood and significant home-health risks. We estimate that a code change that increases the nationwide cost of constructing and maintaining homes by $150 (0.1% of the average cost to build a single-family home) would induce offsetting risks yielding between 2 and 60 premature fatalities or, including morbidity effects, between 20 and 800 lost quality-adjusted life years (both discounted at 3%) each year the code provision remains in effect. To provide a net health benefit, the code change would need to reduce risk by at least this amount. Future research should refine these estimates, incorporate quantitative uncertainty analysis, and apply a full risk-tradeoff approach to real-world case studies of proposed code changes.

The Effect of Comparatively-Framed versus Similarity-Framed E-Cigarette and Snus Print Ads on Young Adults' Ad and Product Perceptions.

PubMed

Banerjee, Smita C; Greene, Kathryn; Li, Yuelin; Ostroff, Jamie S

2016-07-01

This study examined the effects of comparative-framing [C-F; ads highlighting differences between the advertised product and conventional cigarettes and/or smokeless tobacco products] versus similarity-framing (S-F; ads highlighting congruence with conventional cigarettes and/or smokeless tobacco products) in e-cigarette and snus ads on young adult smokers' and non-smokers' ad- and product-related perceptions. One thousand fifty one (1,051) young adults (18-24 years; 76% women; 50% smokers) from existing consumer panels were recruited in a within-subjects quasi-experiment. Each participant viewed 4 online advertisements, varied by tobacco product type (e-cigarette or snus) and ad framing (C-F or S-F). The dependent measures for this study were ad-related (ad perceptions, ad credibility) and product-related perceptions (absolute and comparative risk perceptions, product appeal, and product use intentions). Former and current smokers rated C-F ads as more persuasive than S-F ads, as evidenced by favorable ad perceptions and high product use intentions. Former and current smokers also rated e-cigarette ads with more favorable ad perceptions, low absolute and comparative risk perceptions, high product appeal, and high product use intentions as compared to snus ads. However, the effect sizes of the significant differences are less than.2, indicating small magnitude of difference between the study variables. Unless FDA regulates e-cig and snus advertising, there is a potential of decreasing risk perceptions and increasing use of e-cigs among young adults. Further research on implicit/explicit comparative claims in e-cigarettes and snus advertisements that encourage risk misperceptions is recommended.

Semiclassical Virasoro blocks from AdS 3 gravity

DOE PAGES

Hijano, Eliot; Kraus, Per; Perlmutter, Eric; ...

2015-12-14

We present a unified framework for the holographic computation of Virasoro conformal blocks at large central charge. In particular, we provide bulk constructions that correctly reproduce all semiclassical Virasoro blocks that are known explicitly from conformal field theory computations. The results revolve around the use of geodesic Witten diagrams, recently introduced in [1], evaluated in locally AdS 3 geometries generated by backreaction of heavy operators. We also provide an alternative computation of the heavy-light semiclassical block — in which two external operators become parametrically heavy — as a certain scattering process involving higher spin gauge fields in AdS 3; thismore » approach highlights the chiral nature of Virasoro blocks. Finally, these techniques may be systematically extended to compute corrections to these blocks and to interpolate amongst the different semiclassical regimes.« less

Risk of Damage to the Somatic Innervation of the Penis during the AdVanceProcedure: An Anatomical Study.

PubMed

Hogewoning, Cornelis R C; Elzevier, Henk W; Pelger, Rob C M; Bekker, Milou D; DeRuiter, Marco C

2015-08-01

One of the methods to treat post radical prostatectomy stress urinary incontinence is the AdVance (American Medical Systems, Minnetonka, MN, USA) male sling procedure. During this procedure, the somatic innervation of the penis may be at risk for injury. Six AdVance procedures were performed in six donated bodies at the Anatomy and Embryology Department of the Leiden University Medical Centre. The pelves were dissected and the shortest distance between the sling and the dorsal nerve of the penis (DNP) was documented. The aim of this study was to describe the anatomical relation between the AdVance male sling and penile nerves based on the dissection of six adult male pelves. The AdVance male sling procedure was conducted in six donated male bodies. After placement, the pelves were dissected and the shortest distance between sling and the DNP was documented. The main outcome measure was the distance between the AdVance male sling and the DNP. The mean distance of the sling to the DNP was 4.1 mm and was found situated directly next to the nerve (distance 0 mm) in 4 out of 12 (33%) hemipelves. The distance of the sling to the obturator neurovascular bundle was 30 mm or more in all six bodies. Damage to the DNP caused by the AdVance male sling procedure appears to be an extremely rare complication, which has not been described in current literature. The proximity of the AdVance to the DNP could, however, pose a risk that should be taken into consideration by physicians and patients when opting for surgery. © 2015 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Loops in AdS from conformal field theory

DOE PAGES

Aharony, Ofer; Alday, Luis F.; Bissi, Agnese; ...

2017-07-10

We propose and demonstrate a new use for conformal field theory (CFT) crossing equations in the context of AdS/CFT: the computation of loop amplitudes in AdS, dual to non-planar correlators in holographic CFTs. Loops in AdS are largely unexplored, mostly due to technical difficulties in direct calculations. We revisit this problem, and the dual 1=N expansion of CFTs, in two independent ways. The first is to show how to explicitly solve the crossing equations to the first subleading order in 1=N 2, given a leading order solution. This is done as a systematic expansion in inverse powers of the spin, to all orders. These expansions can be resummed, leading to the CFT data for nite values of the spin. Our second approach involves Mellin space. We show how the polar part of the four-point, loop-level Mellin amplitudes can be fully reconstructed from the leading-order data. The anomalous dimensions computed with both methods agree. In the case ofmore » $$\\phi$$ 4 theory in AdS, our crossing solution reproduces a previous computation of the one-loop bubble diagram. We can go further, deriving the four-point scalar triangle diagram in AdS, which had never been computed. In the process, we show how to analytically derive anomalous dimensions from Mellin amplitudes with an in nite series of poles, and discuss applications to more complicated cases such as the N = 4 super-Yang-Mills theory.« less

Loops in AdS from conformal field theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aharony, Ofer; Alday, Luis F.; Bissi, Agnese

We propose and demonstrate a new use for conformal field theory (CFT) crossing equations in the context of AdS/CFT: the computation of loop amplitudes in AdS, dual to non-planar correlators in holographic CFTs. Loops in AdS are largely unexplored, mostly due to technical difficulties in direct calculations. We revisit this problem, and the dual 1=N expansion of CFTs, in two independent ways. The first is to show how to explicitly solve the crossing equations to the first subleading order in 1=N 2, given a leading order solution. This is done as a systematic expansion in inverse powers of the spin, to all orders. These expansions can be resummed, leading to the CFT data for nite values of the spin. Our second approach involves Mellin space. We show how the polar part of the four-point, loop-level Mellin amplitudes can be fully reconstructed from the leading-order data. The anomalous dimensions computed with both methods agree. In the case ofmore » $$\\phi$$ 4 theory in AdS, our crossing solution reproduces a previous computation of the one-loop bubble diagram. We can go further, deriving the four-point scalar triangle diagram in AdS, which had never been computed. In the process, we show how to analytically derive anomalous dimensions from Mellin amplitudes with an in nite series of poles, and discuss applications to more complicated cases such as the N = 4 super-Yang-Mills theory.« less

Loops in AdS from conformal field theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aharony, Ofer; Alday, Luis F.; Bissi, Agnese; Perlmutter, Eric

2017-07-01

We propose and demonstrate a new use for conformal field theory (CFT) crossing equations in the context of AdS/CFT: the computation of loop amplitudes in AdS, dual to non-planar correlators in holographic CFTs. Loops in AdS are largely unexplored, mostly due to technical difficulties in direct calculations. We revisit this problem, and the dual 1 /N expansion of CFTs, in two independent ways. The first is to show how to explicitly solve the crossing equations to the first subleading order in 1 /N 2, given a leading order solution. This is done as a systematic expansion in inverse powers of the spin, to all orders. These expansions can be resummed, leading to the CFT data for finite values of the spin. Our second approach involves Mellin space. We show how the polar part of the four-point, loop-level Mellin amplitudes can be fully reconstructed from the leading-order data. The anomalous dimensions computed with both methods agree. In the case of ϕ 4 theory in AdS, our crossing solution reproduces a previous computation of the one-loop bubble diagram. We can go further, deriving the four-point scalar triangle diagram in AdS, which had never been computed. In the process, we show how to analytically derive anomalous dimensions from Mellin amplitudes with an infinite series of poles, and discuss applications to more complicated cases such as the N = 4 super-Yang-Mills theory.

Using Surveillance of Mental Health to Increase Understanding of Youth Involvement in High-Risk Behaviors: A Value-Added Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dowdy, Erin; Furlong, Michael J.; Sharkey, Jill D.

2013-01-01

This study examined the potential utility of adding items that assessed youths' emotional and behavioral disorders to a commonly used surveillance survey. The goal was to evaluate whether the added items could enhance understanding of youths' involvement in high-risk behaviors. A sample of 3,331 adolescents in Grades 8, 10, and 12 from four…

Who takes risks in high-risk sports? A typological personality approach.

PubMed

Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

2010-12-01

We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing mountaineering rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness. Results showed that personality types with a configuration of low conscientiousness combined with high extraversion and/or high neuroticism (impulsive, hedonistic, insecure) were greater risk-takers. Conversely, personality types with a configuration of high conscientiousness combined with low extraversion and/or high extraversion (skeptic, brooder, entrepreneur) were lower risk-takers. Results are discussed in the context of typology and other approaches to understanding who takes risks in high-risk domains.

Debt-maturity structures should match risk preferences.

PubMed

Gapenski, L C

1999-12-01

Key to any debt-maturity matching strategy is financing assets with the appropriate debt structure. Financial managers need to establish an optimal capital structure and then choose the best maturity-matching structure for their debt. Two maturity-matching strategies that are available to healthcare financial managers are the accounting approach and the finance approach. The accounting approach, which defines asset maturities as current or fixed, is a riskier financing strategy than the finance approach, which defines asset maturities as permanent or temporary. The added risk occurs because of the accounting approach's heavy reliance on short-term debt. The accounting approach offers the potential for lower costs at the expense of higher risk. Healthcare financial managers who believe the financing function should support the organization's operations without adding undue risk should use the finance approach to maturity matching. Asset maturities in those organizations then should be considered permanent or temporary rather than current or fixed, and the debt-maturity structure should reflect this.

Estimating Free and Added Sugar Intakes in New Zealand.

PubMed

Kibblewhite, Rachael; Nettleton, Alice; McLean, Rachael; Haszard, Jillian; Fleming, Elizabeth; Kruimer, Devonia; Te Morenga, Lisa

2017-11-27

The reduction of free or added sugar intake (sugars added to food and drinks as a sweetener) is almost universally recommended to reduce the risk of obesity-related diseases and dental caries. The World Health Organisation recommends intakes of free sugars of less than 10% of energy intake. However, estimating and monitoring intakes at the population level is challenging because free sugars cannot be analytically distinguished from naturally occurring sugars and most national food composition databases do not include data on free or added sugars. We developed free and added sugar estimates for the New Zealand (NZ) food composition database (FOODfiles 2010) by adapting a method developed for Australia. We reanalyzed the 24 h recall dietary data collected for 4721 adults aged 15 years and over participating in the nationally representative 2008/09 New Zealand Adult Nutrition Survey to estimate free and added sugar intakes. The median estimated intake of free and added sugars was 57 and 49 g/day respectively and 42% of adults consumed less than 10% of their energy intake from free sugars. This approach provides more direct estimates of the free and added sugar contents of New Zealand foods than previously available and will enable monitoring of adherence to free sugar intake guidelines in future.

Estimating Free and Added Sugar Intakes in New Zealand

PubMed Central

Kibblewhite, Rachael; Nettleton, Alice; McLean, Rachael; Haszard, Jillian; Fleming, Elizabeth; Kruimer, Devonia

2017-01-01

The reduction of free or added sugar intake (sugars added to food and drinks as a sweetener) is almost universally recommended to reduce the risk of obesity-related diseases and dental caries. The World Health Organisation recommends intakes of free sugars of less than 10% of energy intake. However, estimating and monitoring intakes at the population level is challenging because free sugars cannot be analytically distinguished from naturally occurring sugars and most national food composition databases do not include data on free or added sugars. We developed free and added sugar estimates for the New Zealand (NZ) food composition database (FOODfiles 2010) by adapting a method developed for Australia. We reanalyzed the 24 h recall dietary data collected for 4721 adults aged 15 years and over participating in the nationally representative 2008/09 New Zealand Adult Nutrition Survey to estimate free and added sugar intakes. The median estimated intake of free and added sugars was 57 and 49 g/day respectively and 42% of adults consumed less than 10% of their energy intake from free sugars. This approach provides more direct estimates of the free and added sugar contents of New Zealand foods than previously available and will enable monitoring of adherence to free sugar intake guidelines in future. PMID:29186927

The Effect of Comparatively-Framed versus Similarity-Framed E-Cigarette and Snus Print Ads on Young Adults’ Ad and Product Perceptions

PubMed Central

Banerjee, Smita C.; Greene, Kathryn; Li, Yuelin; Ostroff, Jamie S.

2016-01-01

Objectives This study examined the effects of comparative-framing [C-F; ads highlighting differences between the advertised product and conventional cigarettes and/or smokeless tobacco products] versus similarity-framing (S-F; ads highlighting congruence with conventional cigarettes and/or smokeless tobacco products) in e-cigarette and snus ads on young adult smokers’ and non-smokers’ ad- and product-related perceptions. Methods One thousand fifty one (1,051) young adults (18–24 years; 76% women; 50% smokers) from existing consumer panels were recruited in a within-subjects quasi-experiment. Each participant viewed 4 online advertisements, varied by tobacco product type (e-cigarette or snus) and ad framing (C-F or S-F). The dependent measures for this study were ad-related (ad perceptions, ad credibility) and product-related perceptions (absolute and comparative risk perceptions, product appeal, and product use intentions). Results Former and current smokers rated C-F ads as more persuasive than S-F ads, as evidenced by favorable ad perceptions and high product use intentions. Former and current smokers also rated e-cigarette ads with more favorable ad perceptions, low absolute and comparative risk perceptions, high product appeal, and high product use intentions as compared to snus ads. However, the effect sizes of the significant differences are less than.2, indicating small magnitude of difference between the study variables. Conclusions Unless FDA regulates e-cig and snus advertising, there is a potential of decreasing risk perceptions and increasing use of e-cigs among young adults. Further research on implicit/explicit comparative claims in e-cigarettes and snus advertisements that encourage risk misperceptions is recommended. PMID:28042597

Genetics pathway-based imaging approaches in Chinese Han population with Alzheimer's disease risk.

PubMed

Bai, Feng; Liao, Wei; Yue, Chunxian; Pu, Mengjia; Shi, Yongmei; Yu, Hui; Yuan, Yonggui; Geng, Leiyu; Zhang, Zhijun

2016-01-01

The tau hypothesis has been raised with regard to the pathophysiology of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is associated with a high risk for developing AD. However, no study has directly examined the brain topological alterations based on combined effects of tau protein pathway genes in MCI population. Forty-three patients with MCI and 30 healthy controls underwent resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in Chinese Han, and a tau protein pathway-based imaging approaches (7 candidate genes: 17 SNPs) were used to investigate changes in the topological organisation of brain activation associated with MCI. Impaired regional activation is related to tau protein pathway genes (5/7 candidate genes) in patients with MCI and likely in topologically convergent and divergent functional alterations patterns associated with genes, and combined effects of tau protein pathway genes disrupt the topological architecture of cortico-cerebellar loops. The associations between the loops and behaviours further suggest that tau protein pathway genes do play a significant role in non-episodic memory impairment. Tau pathway-based imaging approaches might strengthen the credibility in imaging genetic associations and generate pathway frameworks that might provide powerful new insights into the neural mechanisms that underlie MCI.

Modeling radiative transfer with the doubling and adding approach in a climate GCM setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacis, A. A.

2017-12-01

The nonlinear dependence of multiply scattered radiation on particle size, optical depth, and solar zenith angle, makes accurate treatment of multiple scattering in the climate GCM setting problematic, due primarily to computational cost issues. In regard to the accurate methods of calculating multiple scattering that are available, their computational cost is far too prohibitive for climate GCM applications. Utilization of two-stream-type radiative transfer approximations may be computationally fast enough, but at the cost of reduced accuracy. We describe here a parameterization of the doubling/adding method that is being used in the GISS climate GCM, which is an adaptation of the doubling/adding formalism configured to operate with a look-up table utilizing a single gauss quadrature point with an extra-angle formulation. It is designed to closely reproduce the accuracy of full-angle doubling and adding for the multiple scattering effects of clouds and aerosols in a realistic atmosphere as a function of particle size, optical depth, and solar zenith angle. With an additional inverse look-up table, this single-gauss-point doubling/adding approach can be adapted to model fractional cloud cover for any GCM grid-box in the independent pixel approximation as a function of the fractional cloud particle sizes, optical depths, and solar zenith angle dependence.

Total daily physical activity and the risk of AD and cognitive decline in older adults

PubMed Central

Boyle, P.A.; Yu, L.; Shah, R.C.; Wilson, R.S.; Bennett, D.A.

2012-01-01

Objective: Studies examining the link between objective measures of total daily physical activity and incident Alzheimer disease (AD) are lacking. We tested the hypothesis that an objective measure of total daily physical activity predicts incident AD and cognitive decline. Methods: Total daily exercise and nonexercise physical activity was measured continuously for up to 10 days with actigraphy (Actical®; Philips Healthcare, Bend, OR) from 716 older individuals without dementia participating in the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a prospective, observational cohort study. All participants underwent structured annual clinical examination including a battery of 19 cognitive tests. Results: During an average follow-up of about 4 years, 71 subjects developed clinical AD. In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, and education, total daily physical activity was associated with incident AD (hazard ratio = 0.477; 95% confidence interval 0.273–0.832). The association remained after adjusting for self-report physical, social, and cognitive activities, as well as current level of motor function, depressive symptoms, chronic health conditions, and APOE allele status. In a linear mixed-effect model, the level of total daily physical activity was associated with the rate of global cognitive decline (estimate 0.033, SE 0.012, p = 0.007). Conclusions: A higher level of total daily physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of AD. PMID:22517108

Total daily physical activity and the risk of AD and cognitive decline in older adults.

PubMed

Buchman, A S; Boyle, P A; Yu, L; Shah, R C; Wilson, R S; Bennett, D A

2012-04-24

Studies examining the link between objective measures of total daily physical activity and incident Alzheimer disease (AD) are lacking. We tested the hypothesis that an objective measure of total daily physical activity predicts incident AD and cognitive decline. Total daily exercise and nonexercise physical activity was measured continuously for up to 10 days with actigraphy (Actical®; Philips Healthcare, Bend, OR) from 716 older individuals without dementia participating in the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a prospective, observational cohort study. All participants underwent structured annual clinical examination including a battery of 19 cognitive tests. During an average follow-up of about 4 years, 71 subjects developed clinical AD. In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, and education, total daily physical activity was associated with incident AD (hazard ratio = 0.477; 95% confidence interval 0.273-0.832). The association remained after adjusting for self-report physical, social, and cognitive activities, as well as current level of motor function, depressive symptoms, chronic health conditions, and APOE allele status. In a linear mixed-effect model, the level of total daily physical activity was associated with the rate of global cognitive decline (estimate 0.033, SE 0.012, p = 0.007). A higher level of total daily physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of AD.

Digital Quantum Simulation of Minimal AdS /CFT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Álvarez, L.; Egusquiza, I. L.; Lamata, L.; del Campo, A.; Sonner, J.; Solano, E.

2017-07-01

We propose the digital quantum simulation of a minimal AdS /CFT model in controllable quantum platforms. We consider the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model describing interacting Majorana fermions with randomly distributed all-to-all couplings, encoding nonlocal fermionic operators onto qubits to efficiently implement their dynamics via digital techniques. Moreover, we also give a method for probing nonequilibrium dynamics and the scrambling of information. Finally, our approach serves as a protocol for reproducing a simplified low-dimensional model of quantum gravity in advanced quantum platforms as trapped ions and superconducting circuits.

Impact of UKPDS risk estimation added to a first subjective risk estimation on management of coronary disease risk in type 2 diabetes - An observational study.

PubMed

Wind, Anne E; Gorter, Kees J; van den Donk, Maureen; Rutten, Guy E H M

2016-02-01

To investigate the impact of the UKPDS risk engine on management of CHD risk in T2DM patients. Observational study among 139 GPs. Data from 933 consecutive patients treated with a maximum of two oral glucose lowering drugs, collected at baseline and after twelve months. GPs estimated the CHD risk themselves and afterwards they calculated this with the UKPDS risk engine. Under- and overestimation were defined as a difference >5 percentage points difference between both calculations. The impact of the UKPDS risk engine was assessed by measuring differences in medication adjustments between the over-, under- and accurately estimated group. In 42.0% the GP accurately estimated the CHD risk, in 32.4% the risk was underestimated and in 25.6% overestimated. Mean difference between the estimated (18.7%) and calculated (19.1%) 10 years CHD risk was -0.36% (95% CI -1.24 to 0.52). Male gender, current smoking and total cholesterol level were associated with underestimation. Patients with an subjectively underestimated CHD risk received significantly more medication adjustments. Their UKPDS 10 year CHD risk did not increase during the follow-up period, contrary to the other two groups of patients. The UKPDS risk engine may be of added value for risk management in T2DM. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Value of adding the renal pathological score to the kidney failure risk equation in advanced diabetic nephropathy.

PubMed

Yamanouchi, Masayuki; Hoshino, Junichi; Ubara, Yoshifumi; Takaichi, Kenmei; Kinowaki, Keiichi; Fujii, Takeshi; Ohashi, Kenichi; Mise, Koki; Toyama, Tadashi; Hara, Akinori; Kitagawa, Kiyoki; Shimizu, Miho; Furuichi, Kengo; Wada, Takashi

2018-01-01

There have been a limited number of biopsy-based studies on diabetic nephropathy, and therefore the clinical importance of renal biopsy in patients with diabetes in late-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) is still debated. We aimed to clarify the renal prognostic value of pathological information to clinical information in patients with diabetes and advanced CKD. We retrospectively assessed 493 type 2 diabetics with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy in four centers in Japan. 296 patients with stage 3-5 CKD at the time of biopsy were identified and assigned two risk prediction scores for end-stage renal disease (ESRD): the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE, a score composed of clinical parameters) and the Diabetic Nephropathy Score (D-score, a score integrated pathological parameters of the Diabetic Nephropathy Classification by the Renal Pathology Society (RPS DN Classification)). They were randomized 2:1 to development and validation cohort. Hazard Ratios (HR) of incident ESRD were reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) of the KFRE, D-score and KFRE+D-score in Cox regression model. Improvement of risk prediction with the addition of D-score to the KFRE was assessed using c-statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). During median follow-up of 1.9 years, 194 patients developed ESRD. The cox regression analysis showed that the KFRE,D-score and KFRE+D-score were significant predictors of ESRD both in the development cohort and in the validation cohort. The c-statistics of the D-score was 0.67. The c-statistics of the KFRE was good, but its predictive value was weaker than that in the miscellaneous CKD cohort originally reported (c-statistics, 0.78 vs. 0.90) and was not significantly improved by adding the D-score (0.78 vs. 0.79, p = 0.83). Only continuous NRI was positive after adding the D-score to the KFRE (0.4%; CI: 0.0-0.8%). We found that the predict values of the KFRE and the D-score were

Rare variants in APP, PSEN1 and PSEN2 increase risk for AD in late-onset Alzheimer's disease families.

PubMed

Cruchaga, Carlos; Haller, Gabe; Chakraverty, Sumitra; Mayo, Kevin; Vallania, Francesco L M; Mitra, Robi D; Faber, Kelley; Williamson, Jennifer; Bird, Tom; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; Foroud, Tatiana M; Boeve, Bradley F; Graff-Radford, Neill R; St Jean, Pamela; Lawson, Michael; Ehm, Margaret G; Mayeux, Richard; Goate, Alison M

2012-01-01

Pathogenic mutations in APP, PSEN1, PSEN2, MAPT and GRN have previously been linked to familial early onset forms of dementia. Mutation screening in these genes has been performed in either very small series or in single families with late onset AD (LOAD). Similarly, studies in single families have reported mutations in MAPT and GRN associated with clinical AD but no systematic screen of a large dataset has been performed to determine how frequently this occurs. We report sequence data for 439 probands from late-onset AD families with a history of four or more affected individuals. Sixty sequenced individuals (13.7%) carried a novel or pathogenic mutation. Eight pathogenic variants, (one each in APP and MAPT, two in PSEN1 and four in GRN) three of which are novel, were found in 14 samples. Thirteen additional variants, present in 23 families, did not segregate with disease, but the frequency of these variants is higher in AD cases than controls, indicating that these variants may also modify risk for disease. The frequency of rare variants in these genes in this series is significantly higher than in the 1,000 genome project (p = 5.09 × 10⁻⁵; OR = 2.21; 95%CI = 1.49-3.28) or an unselected population of 12,481 samples (p = 6.82 × 10⁻⁵; OR = 2.19; 95%CI = 1.347-3.26). Rare coding variants in APP, PSEN1 and PSEN2, increase risk for or cause late onset AD. The presence of variants in these genes in LOAD and early-onset AD demonstrates that factors other than the mutation can impact the age at onset and penetrance of at least some variants associated with AD. MAPT and GRN mutations can be found in clinical series of AD most likely due to misdiagnosis. This study clearly demonstrates that rare variants in these genes could explain an important proportion of genetic heritability of AD, which is not detected by GWAS.

Flooding Risk for Coastal Infrastructure: a Stakeholder-Oriented Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plater, A. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Knight, P. J.; Morrissey, K.

2015-12-01

A flood risk assessment for coastal energy infrastructure in the UK with respect to long-term sea-level rise and extreme water levels has been conducted using a combination of numerical modelling approaches (LISFLOOD-FP, SWAB, XBeach-G, POLCOMS). Model outputs have been incorporated into a decision-support tool that enables users from a wide spectrum of coastal stakeholders (e.g. nuclear energy, utility providers, local government, environmental regulators, communities) to explore the potential impacts of flooding on both operational (events to 10 years) and strategic (10 to 50 years) timescales. Examples illustrate the physical and economic impacts of flooding from combined extreme water levels, wave overtopping and high river flow for Fleetwood, NW England; changes in the extent of likely flooding arising from an extreme event due to sea-level rise for Oldbury, SW England; and the relative vulnerability to overtopping and breaching of sea defences for Dungeness, SE England. The impacts of a potential large-scale beach recharge scheme to mitigate coastal erosion and flood risk along the southern shoreline of Dungeness are also examined using a combination of coastal evolution and particle-tracking modelling. The research goal is to provide an evidence base for resource allocation, investment in interventions, and communication and dialogue in relation to sea-level rise to 2500 AD.

Massless spinning particle and null-string on AdS d : projective-space approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uvarov, D. V.

2018-07-01

The massless spinning particle and the tensionless string models on an AdS d background in the projective-space realization are proposed as constrained Hamiltonian systems. Various forms of particle and string Lagrangians are derived and classical mechanics is studied including the Lax-type representation of the equations of motion. After that, the transition to the quantum theory is discussed. The analysis of potential anomalies in the tensionless string model necessitates the introduction of ghosts and BRST charge. It is shown that a quantum BRST charge is nilpotent for any d if coordinate-momentum ordering for the phase-space bosonic variables, Weyl ordering for the fermions and cb () ordering for the ghosts is chosen, while conformal reparametrizations and space-time dilatations turn out to be anomalous for ordering in terms of positive and negative Fourier modes of the phase-space variables and ghosts.

Simple Decision-Analytic Functions of the AUC for Ruling Out a Risk Prediction Model and an Added Predictor.

PubMed

Baker, Stuart G

2018-02-01

When using risk prediction models, an important consideration is weighing performance against the cost (monetary and harms) of ascertaining predictors. The minimum test tradeoff (MTT) for ruling out a model is the minimum number of all-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. The MTT for ruling out an added predictor is the minimum number of added-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out a model is 1/[P (H(AUC model )], where H(AUC) = AUC - {½ (1-AUC)} ½ , AUC is the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and P is the probability of the predicted event in the target population. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out an added predictor is 1 /[P {(H(AUC Model:2 ) - H(AUC Model:1 )], where Model 2 includes an added predictor relative to Model 1. The latter approximation requires the Tangent Condition that the true positive rate at the point on the ROC curve with a slope of 1 is larger for Model 2 than Model 1. These approximations are suitable for back-of-the-envelope calculations. For example, in a study predicting the risk of invasive breast cancer, Model 2 adds to the predictors in Model 1 a set of 7 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Based on the AUCs and the Tangent Condition, an MTT of 7200 was computed, which indicates that 7200 sets of SNPs are needed for every correct prediction of breast cancer to yield a positive overall expected utility. If ascertaining the SNPs costs $500, this MTT suggests that SNP ascertainment is not likely worthwhile for this risk prediction.

Short-term modern life-like stress exacerbates Aβ-pathology and synapse loss in 3xTg-AD mice

PubMed Central

Baglietto-Vargas, David; Chen, Yuncai; Suh, Dongjin; Ager, Rahasson R.; Rodriguez-Ortiz, Carlos J.; Mederios, Rodrigo; Myczek, Kristoffer; Green, Kim N.; Baram, Tallie Z.; LaFerla, Frank M.

2016-01-01

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive neurological disorder that impairs memory and other cognitive functions in the elderly. The social and financial impacts of AD are overwhelming and are escalating exponentially as a result of population aging. Therefore, identifying AD-related risk factors and the development of more efficacious therapeutic approaches are critical to cure this neurological disorder. Current epidemiological evidence indicates that life experiences, including chronic stress, are a risk for AD. However, it is unknown if short-term stress, lasting for hours, influences the onset or progression of AD. Here, we determined the effect of short-term, multi-modal ‘modern life-like’ stress on AD pathogenesis and synaptic plasticity in mice bearing three AD mutations (the 3xTg-AD mouse model). We found that combined emotional and physical stress lasting 5 h severely impaired memory in wild-type mice and tended to impact it in already low-performing 3xTg-AD mice. This stress reduced the number of synapse-bearing dendritic spines in 3xTg-AD mice and increased Aβ levels by augmenting AβPP processing. Thus, short-term stress simulating modern-life conditions may exacerbate cognitive deficits in preclinical AD by accelerating amyloid pathology and reducing synapse numbers. PMID:26077803

Financial and health literacy predict incident AD dementia and AD pathology

PubMed Central

Yu, Lei; Wilson, Robert S.; Schneider, Julie A.; Bennett, David A.; Boyle, Patricia A.

2017-01-01

Background Domain specific literacy is a multidimensional construct that requires multiple resources including cognitive and non-cognitive factors. Objective We test the hypothesis that domain specific literacy is associated with AD dementia and AD pathology after controlling for cognition. Methods Participants were community based older persons who completed a baseline literacy assessment, underwent annual clinical evaluations for up to 8 years and agreed to organ donation after death. Financial and health literacy was measured using 32 questions and cognition was measured using 19 tests. Annual diagnosis of AD dementia followed standard criteria. AD pathology was examined post-mortem by quantifying plaques and tangles. Cox models examined the association of literacy with incident AD dementia. Performance of model prediction for incident AD dementia was assessed using indices for integrated discrimination improvement and continuous net reclassification improvement. Linear regression models examined the independent association of literacy with AD pathology in autopsied participants. Results All 805 participants were free of dementia at baseline and 102 (12.7%) developed AD dementia during the follow-up. Lower literacy was associated with higher risk for incident AD dementia (p<0.001), and the association persisted after controlling for cognition (Hazard Ratio=1.50, p=0.004). The model including the literacy measure had better predictive performance than the one with demographics and cognition only. Lower literacy also was associated with higher burden of AD pathology after controlling for cognition (β=0.07, p=0.035). Conclusion Literacy predicts incident AD dementia and AD pathology in community-dwelling older persons, and the association is independent of traditional measures of cognition. PMID:28157101

A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

2007-03-01

Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

Changes in the Relative Balance of Approach and Avoidance Inclinations to Use Alcohol Following Cue Exposure Vary in Low and High Risk Drinkers

PubMed Central

Hollett, Ross C.; Stritzke, Werner G. K.; Edgeworth, Phoebe; Weinborn, Michael

2017-01-01

According to the ambivalence model of craving, alcohol craving involves the dynamic interplay of separate approach and avoidance inclinations. Cue-elicited increases in approach inclinations are posited to be more likely to result in alcohol consumption and risky drinking behaviors only if unimpeded by restraint inclinations. Current study aims were (1) to test if changes in the net balance between approach and avoidance inclinations following alcohol cue exposure differentiate between low and high risk drinkers, and (2) if this balance is associated with alcohol consumption on a subsequent taste test. In two experiments (N = 60; N = 79), low and high risk social drinkers were exposed to alcohol cues, and pre- and post- approach and avoidance inclinations measured. An ad libitum alcohol consumption paradigm and a non-alcohol exposure condition were also included in Study 2. Cue-elicited craving was characterized by a predominant approach inclination only in the high risk drinkers. Conversely, approach inclinations were adaptively balanced by equally strong avoidance inclinations when cue-elicited craving was induced in low risk drinkers. For these low risk drinkers with the balanced craving profile, neither approach or avoidance inclinations predicted subsequent alcohol consumption levels during the taste test. Conversely, for high risk drinkers, where the approach inclination predominated, each inclination synergistically predicted subsequent drinking levels during the taste test. In conclusion, results support the importance of assessing both approach and avoidance inclinations, and their relative balance following alcohol cue exposure. Specifically, this more comprehensive assessment reveals changes in craving profiles that are not apparent from examining changes in approach inclinations alone, and it is this shift in the net balance that distinguishes high from low risk drinkers. PMID:28533759

Added sugar and sugar-sweetened foods and beverages and the risk of pancreatic cancer in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study.

PubMed

Bao, Ying; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael; Jiao, Li; Silverman, Debra T; Subar, Amy F; Park, Yikyung; Leitzmann, Michael F; Hollenbeck, Albert; Schatzkin, Arthur; Michaud, Dominique S

2008-08-01

Although it has been hypothesized that hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, and insulin resistance are involved in the development of pancreatic cancer, results from epidemiologic studies of added sugar intake are inconclusive. Our objective was to investigate whether the consumption of total added sugar and sugar-sweetened foods and beverages is associated with pancreatic cancer risk. In 1995 and 1996, we prospectively examined 487 922 men and women aged 50-71 y and free of cancer and diabetes. Total added dietary sugar intake (in tsp/d; based on the US Department of Agriculture's Pyramid Servings Database) was assessed with a food-frequency questionnaire. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs were calculated with adjustment for total energy and potential confounding factors. During an average 7.2 y of follow-up, 1258 incident pancreatic cancer cases were ascertained. The median intakes for the lowest and highest quintiles of total added sugar intake were 12.6 (3 tsp/d) and 96.2 (22.9 tsp/d) g/d, respectively. No overall greater risk of pancreatic cancer was observed in men or women with high intake of total added sugar or sugar-sweetened foods and beverages. For men and women combined, the multivariate RRs of the highest versus lowest intake categories were 0.85 (95% CI: 0.68, 1.06; P for trend = 0.07) for total added sugar, 1.01 (0.82,1.23; P for trend = 0.58) for sweets, 0.98 (0.82,1.18; P for trend = 0.49) for dairy desserts, 1.12 (0.91,1.39; P for trend = 0.35) for sugar added to coffee and tea, and 1.01 (0.77,1.31; P for trend = 0.76) for regular soft drinks. Our results do not support the hypothesis that consumption of added sugar or of sugar-sweetened foods and beverages is associated with overall risk of pancreatic cancer.

Interactive approach to segment organs at risk in radiotherapy treatment planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolz, Jose; Kirisli, Hortense A.; Viard, Romain; Massoptier, Laurent

2014-03-01

Accurate delineation of organs at risk (OAR) is required for radiation treatment planning (RTP). However, it is a very time consuming and tedious task. The use in clinic of image guided radiation therapy (IGRT) becomes more and more popular, thus increasing the need of (semi-)automatic methods for delineation of the OAR. In this work, an interactive segmentation approach to delineate OAR is proposed and validated. The method is based on the combination of watershed transformation, which groups small areas of similar intensities in homogeneous labels, and graph cuts approach, which uses these labels to create the graph. Segmentation information can be added in any view - axial, sagittal or coronal -, making the interaction with the algorithm easy and fast. Subsequently, this information is propagated within the whole volume, providing a spatially coherent result. Manual delineations made by experts of 6 OAR - lungs, kidneys, liver, spleen, heart and aorta - over a set of 9 computed tomography (CT) scans were used as reference standard to validate the proposed approach. With a maximum of 4 interactions, a Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) higher than 0.87 was obtained, which demonstrates that, with the proposed segmentation approach, only few interactions are required to achieve similar results as the ones obtained manually. The integration of this method in the RTP process may save a considerable amount of time, and reduce the annotation complexity.

Does adding information on job strain improve risk prediction for coronary heart disease beyond the standard Framingham risk score? The Whitehall II study.

PubMed

Kivimäki, Mika; Nyberg, Solja T; Batty, G David; Shipley, Martin J; Ferrie, Jane E; Virtanen, Marianna; Marmot, Michael G; Vahtera, Jussi; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Hamer, Mark

2011-12-01

Guidelines for coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention recommend using multifactorial risk prediction algorithms, particularly the Framingham risk score. We sought to examine whether adding information on job strain to the Framingham model improves its predictive power in a low-risk working population. Our analyses are based on data from the prospective Whitehall II cohort study, UK. Job strain among 5533 adults (mean age 48.9 years, 1666 women) was ascertained in Phases 1 (1985-88), 2 (1989-90) and 3 (1991-93). Variables comprising the Framingham score (blood lipids, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking) were measured at Phase 3. In men and women who were CHD free at baseline, CHD mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) were ascertained from 5-yearly screenings and linkage to mortality and hospital records until Phase 7 (2002-04). A total of 160 coronary deaths and non-fatal MIs occurred during the mean follow-up period of 11.3 years. The addition of indicators of job strain to the Framingham score increased the C-statistics from 0.725 [95% confidence intervals (95% CIs): 0.575-0.854] to only 0.726 (0.577-0.855), corresponding to a net reclassification improvement of 0.7% (95% CIs: -4.2 to 5.6%). The findings were similar after inclusion of definite angina in the CHD outcome (352 total cases) and when using alternative operational definitions for job strain. In this middle-aged low-risk working population, job strain was associated with an increased risk of CHD. However, when compared with the Framingham algorithm, adding job strain did not improve the model's predictive performance.

[New approach for managing microbial risks in food].

PubMed

Augustin, Jean-Christophe

2015-01-01

The aim of the food legislation is to ensure the protection of human health. Traditionally, the food legislation requires food business operators to apply good hygiene practices and specific procedures to control foodborne pathogens. These regulations allowed reaching a high level of health protection. The improvement of the system will require risk-based approaches. Firstly, risk assessment should allow the identification of high-risk situations where resources should be allocated for a better targeting of risk management. Then, management measures should be adapted to the health objective. In this approach, the appropriate level of protection is converted intofood safety and performance objectives on the food chain, i.e., maximum microbial contamination to fulfil the acceptable risk level. When objectives are defined, the food business operators and competent authorities can identify control options to comply with the objectives and establish microbiological criteria to verify compliance with these objectives. This approach, described for approximately 10 years, operative thanks to the development of quantitative risk assessment techniques, is still difficult to use in practical terms since it requires a commitment of competent authorities to define the acceptable risk and needs also the implementation of sometimes complex risk models.

Health-based risk adjustment: improving the pharmacy-based cost group model by adding diagnostic cost groups.

PubMed

Prinsze, Femmeke J; van Vliet, René C J A

Since 1991, risk-adjusted premium subsidies have existed in the Dutch social health insurance sector, which covered about two-thirds of the population until 2006. In 2002, pharmacy-based cost groups (PCGs) were included in the demographic risk adjustment model, which improved the goodness-of-fit, as measured by the R2, to 11.5%. The model's R2 reached 22.8% in 2004, when inpatient diagnostic information was added in the form of diagnostic cost groups (DCGs). PCGs and DCGs appear to be complementary in their ability to predict future costs. PCGs particularly improve the R2 for outpatient expenses, whereas DCGs improve the R2 for inpatient expenses. In 2006, this system of risk-adjusted premium subsidies was extended to cover the entire population.

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve

2005-01-01

This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

PubMed

Bassett, J; McClure, P

2008-04-01

To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

Risk assessment, identification, and notification (RAIN) system : a novel approach for traffic management.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-31

Primary research focused on the design and development of an energy-efficient Risk Notification Message Dissemination Protocol (RNMDP) for vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). RNMDP propagates Risk Notification Messages (RNMs) from a location of origi...

Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

PubMed

Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

2014-12-01

Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

Some semiclassical structure constants for AdS 4 × CP 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Changrim; Bozhilov, Plamen

2018-02-01

We compute structure constants in three-point functions of three string states in AdS 4× CP 3 in the framework of the semiclassical approach. We consider HHL correlation functions where two of the states are "heavy" string states of finite-size giant magnons carrying one or two angular momenta and the other one corresponds to such "light" states as dilaton operators with non-zero momentum, primary scalar operators, and singlet scalar operators with higher string levels.

Improving risk prediction accuracy for new soldiers in the U.S. Army by adding self-report survey data to administrative data.

PubMed

Bernecker, Samantha L; Rosellini, Anthony J; Nock, Matthew K; Chiu, Wai Tat; Gutierrez, Peter M; Hwang, Irving; Joiner, Thomas E; Naifeh, James A; Sampson, Nancy A; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Kessler, Ronald C

2018-04-03

High rates of mental disorders, suicidality, and interpersonal violence early in the military career have raised interest in implementing preventive interventions with high-risk new enlistees. The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) developed risk-targeting systems for these outcomes based on machine learning methods using administrative data predictors. However, administrative data omit many risk factors, raising the question whether risk targeting could be improved by adding self-report survey data to prediction models. If so, the Army may gain from routinely administering surveys that assess additional risk factors. The STARRS New Soldier Survey was administered to 21,790 Regular Army soldiers who agreed to have survey data linked to administrative records. As reported previously, machine learning models using administrative data as predictors found that small proportions of high-risk soldiers accounted for high proportions of negative outcomes. Other machine learning models using self-report survey data as predictors were developed previously for three of these outcomes: major physical violence and sexual violence perpetration among men and sexual violence victimization among women. Here we examined the extent to which this survey information increases prediction accuracy, over models based solely on administrative data, for those three outcomes. We used discrete-time survival analysis to estimate a series of models predicting first occurrence, assessing how model fit improved and concentration of risk increased when adding the predicted risk score based on survey data to the predicted risk score based on administrative data. The addition of survey data improved prediction significantly for all outcomes. In the most extreme case, the percentage of reported sexual violence victimization among the 5% of female soldiers with highest predicted risk increased from 17.5% using only administrative predictors to 29.4% adding survey

Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

2017-04-01

Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauder, Stephen P.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration

Approaches for derivation of environmental quality criteria for substances applied in risk assessment of discharges from offshore drilling operations.

PubMed

Altin, Dag; Frost, Tone Karin; Nilssen, Ingunn

2008-04-01

In order to achieve the offshore petroleum industries "zero harm" goal to the environment, the environmental impact factor for drilling discharges was developed as a tool to identify and quantify the environmental risks associated with disposal of drilling discharges to the marine environment. As an initial step in this work the main categories of substances associated with drilling discharges and assumed to contribute to toxic or nontoxic stress were identified and evaluated for inclusion in the risk assessment. The selection were based on the known toxicological properties of the substances, or the total amount discharged together with their potential for accumulation in the water column or sediments to levels that could be expected to cause toxic or nontoxic stress to the biota. Based on these criteria 3 categories of chemicals were identified for risk assessment the water column and sediments: Natural organic substances, metals, and drilling fluid chemicals. Several approaches for deriving the environmentally safe threshold concentrations as predicted no effect concentrations were evaluated in the process. For the water column consensus were reached for using the species sensitivity distribution approach for metals and the assessment factor approach for natural organic substances and added drilling chemicals. For the sediments the equilibrium partitioning approach was selected for all three categories of chemicals. The theoretically derived sediment quality criteria were compared to field-derived threshold effect values based on statistical approaches applied on sediment monitoring data from the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The basis for derivation of predicted no effect concentration values for drilling discharges should be consistent with the principles of environmental risk assessment as described in the Technical Guidance Document on Risk Assessment issued by the European Union.

Assessing risk-adjustment approaches under non-random selection.

PubMed

Luft, Harold S; Dudley, R Adams

2004-01-01

Various approaches have been proposed to adjust for differences in enrollee risk in health plans. Because risk-selection strategies may have different effects on enrollment, we simulated three types of selection--dumping, skimming, and stinting. Concurrent diagnosis-based risk adjustment, and a hybrid using concurrent adjustment for about 8% of the cases and prospective adjustment for the rest, perform markedly better than prospective or demographic adjustments, both in terms of R2 and the extent to which plans experience unwarranted gains or losses. The simulation approach offers a valuable tool for analysts in assessing various risk-adjustment strategies under different selection situations.

Caregivers' male gender is associated with poor nutrient intake in AD families (NuAD-trial).

PubMed

Puranen, T M; Pietila, S E; Pitkala, K H; Kautiainen, H; Raivio, M; Eloniemi-Sulkava, U; Jyvakorpi, S K; Suominen, M

2014-07-01

Alzheimer patients (AD) are known to be at risk for malnutrition and their older spouses may also have nutritional problems. The aim of our study was to clarify the association of caregivers' sex on the nutrient intake of AD couples. Our study uses the baseline data of a randomized nutritional trial exploring the effectiveness of nutrition intervention among home-dwelling AD patients. The central AD register in Finland was used to recruit AD patients living with a spousal caregiver, 99 couples participated in our study. Nutritional status was assessed using the Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA). Nutrient intakes for both AD patients and their spouses were calculated from 3-day food diaries. The mean age of caregivers and AD spouses was 75.2 (SD 7.0) and 77.4 years (SD 5.6), respectively. According to the MNA, 40% of male and 52% of female AD spouses were at risk for malnutrition. Among male caregivers, the mean energy and protein intakes were 1605 kcal (SD 458) and 0.93 g/body kg (SD 0.30), whereas the respective figures for their female AD spouses were 1313 kcal (SD 340) and 0.86 g/body kg (SD 0.32), respectively. Among female caregivers, the mean energy and protein intakes were 1536 kcal (SD 402) and 1.00 g/body kg (SD 0.30), whereas the respective figures for their male AD spouses were 1897 kcal (SD 416) and 1.04 g/body kg (SD 0.30). The interaction between male caregiver sex and lower energy (p<0.001) and lower protein intake (p=0.0048) (adjusted for age and MMSE) was significant. Similar differences between caregiver sexes were observed with the intake of various nutrients. A gender difference exists in the ability to cope with caregiver responsibilities related to nutrition. A need exists for tailored nutritional guidance among older individuals and especially among male caregivers.

Alzheimer's disease prevention: from risk factors to early intervention.

PubMed

Crous-Bou, Marta; Minguillón, Carolina; Gramunt, Nina; Molinuevo, José Luis

2017-09-12

Due to the progressive aging of the population, Alzheimer's disease (AD) is becoming a healthcare burden of epidemic proportions for which there is currently no cure. Disappointing results from clinical trials performed in mild-moderate AD dementia combined with clear epidemiological evidence on AD risk factors are contributing to the development of primary prevention initiatives. In addition, the characterization of the long asymptomatic stage of AD is allowing the development of intervention studies and secondary prevention programmes on asymptomatic at-risk individuals, before substantial irreversible neuronal dysfunction and loss have occurred, an approach that emerges as highly relevant.In this manuscript, we review current strategies for AD prevention, from primary prevention strategies based on identifying risk factors and risk reduction, to secondary prevention initiatives based on the early detection of the pathophysiological hallmarks and intervention at the preclinical stage of the disease. Firstly, we summarize the evidence on several AD risk factors, which are the rationale for the establishment of primary prevention programmes as well as revising current primary prevention strategies. Secondly, we review the development of public-private partnerships for disease prevention that aim to characterize the AD continuum as well as serving as platforms for secondary prevention trials. Finally, we summarize currently ongoing clinical trials recruiting participants with preclinical AD or a higher risk for the onset of AD-related cognitive impairment.The growing body of research on the risk factors for AD and its preclinical stage is favouring the development of AD prevention programmes that, by delaying the onset of Alzheimer's dementia for only a few years, would have a huge impact on public health.

Who Takes Risks in High-Risk Sports? A Typological Personality Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

2010-01-01

We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing, mountaineering, rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and…

Approach to risk identification in undifferentiated mental disorders

PubMed Central

Silveira, José; Rockman, Patricia; Fulford, Casey; Hunter, Jon

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective To provide primary care physicians with a novel approach to risk identification and related clinical decision making in the management of undifferentiated mental disorders. Sources of information We conducted a review of the literature in PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar using the search terms diagnostic uncertainty, diagnosis, risk identification, risk assessment/methods, risk, risk factors, risk management/methods, cognitive biases and psychiatry, decision making, mental disorders/diagnosis, clinical competence, evidence-based medicine, interviews as topic, psychiatry/education, psychiatry/methods, documentation/methods, forensic psychiatry/education, forensic psychiatry/methods, mental disorders/classification, mental disorders/psychology, violence/prevention and control, and violence/psychology. Main message Mental disorders are a large component of practice in primary care and often present in an undifferentiated manner, remaining so for prolonged periods. The challenging search for a diagnosis can divert attention from risk identification, as diagnosis is commonly presumed to be necessary before treatment can begin. This might inadvertently contribute to preventable adverse events. Focusing on salient aspects of the patient presentation related to risk should be prioritized. This article presents a novel approach to organizing patient information to assist risk identification and decision making in the management of patients with undifferentiated mental disorders. Conclusion A structured approach can help physicians to manage the clinical uncertainty common to risk identification in patients with mental disorders and cope with the common anxiety and cognitive biases that affect priorities in risk-related decision making. By focusing on risk, functional impairments, and related symptoms using a novel framework, physicians can meet their patients’ immediate needs while continuing the search for diagnostic clarity and long

Approach to risk identification in undifferentiated mental disorders.

PubMed

Silveira, José; Rockman, Patricia; Fulford, Casey; Hunter, Jon

2016-12-01

To provide primary care physicians with a novel approach to risk identification and related clinical decision making in the management of undifferentiated mental disorders. We conducted a review of the literature in PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar using the search terms diagnostic uncertainty, diagnosis, risk identification, risk assessment/methods, risk, risk factors, risk management/methods, cognitive biases and psychiatry, decision making, mental disorders/diagnosis, clinical competence, evidence-based medicine, interviews as topic, psychiatry/education, psychiatry/methods, documentation/methods, forensic psychiatry/education, forensic psychiatry/methods, mental disorders/classification, mental disorders/psychology, violence/prevention and control, and violence/psychology. Mental disorders are a large component of practice in primary care and often present in an undifferentiated manner, remaining so for prolonged periods. The challenging search for a diagnosis can divert attention from risk identification, as diagnosis is commonly presumed to be necessary before treatment can begin. This might inadvertently contribute to preventable adverse events. Focusing on salient aspects of the patient presentation related to risk should be prioritized. This article presents a novel approach to organizing patient information to assist risk identification and decision making in the management of patients with undifferentiated mental disorders. A structured approach can help physicians to manage the clinical uncertainty common to risk identification in patients with mental disorders and cope with the common anxiety and cognitive biases that affect priorities in risk-related decision making. By focusing on risk, functional impairments, and related symptoms using a novel framework, physicians can meet their patients' immediate needs while continuing the search for diagnostic clarity and long-term treatment. Copyright© the College of Family Physicians of Canada.

DAWN: Dynamic Ad-hoc Wireless Network

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-19

DAWN: Dynamic Ad-hoc Wireless Network The DAWN (Dynamic Ad-hoc Wireless Networks) project is developing a general theory of complex and dynamic... wireless communication networks. To accomplish this, DAWN adopts a very different approach than those followed in the past and summarized above. DAWN... wireless communication networks. The members of DAWN investigated difference aspects of wireless mobile ad hoc networks (MANET). The views, opinions and/or

Adding A Measure Of Patient Self-Management Capability To Risk Assessment Can Improve Prediction Of High Costs.

PubMed

Hibbard, Judith H; Greene, Jessica; Sacks, Rebecca; Overton, Valerie; Parrotta, Carmen D

2016-03-01

We explored whether supplementing a clinical risk score with a behavioral measure could improve targeting of the patients most in need of supports that reduce their risk of costly service utilization. Using data from a large health system that determines patient self-management capability using the Patient Activation Measure, we examined utilization of hospital and emergency department care by the 15 percent of patients with the highest clinical risk scores. After controlling for risk scores and placing patients within segments based on their level of activation in 2011, we found that the lower the activation level, the higher the utilization and cost of hospital services in each of the following three years. These findings demonstrate that adding a measure of patient self-management capability to a risk assessment can improve prediction of high care costs and inform actions to better meet patient needs. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Risk assessment and management approaches on mental health units.

PubMed

Woods, P

2013-11-01

This exploratory and descriptive study took place in one Canadian province. The study aimed to: (1) to identify and describe the nature and extent of current risk assessment and management approaches used in the adult inpatient mental health and forensic units; and (2) to identify good practice and shortfalls in the nature and extent of the approaches currently utilized. Data were collected from 48 participants through nine focus groups. Participants reported that they used a clinical approach to risk assessment. They had also not considered risk assessment and management as a proactive structured process. Education and training was also limited and skills were developed over time through practice. Five keys issues are discussed as important: reliance on clinical judgement alone is not the best choice to make; the need to consider risk as a whole concept; risk management being more reactive than proactive; education and training; and client involvement in risk assessment. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Microbial production of value-added nutraceuticals.

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Guleria, Sanjay; Koffas, Mattheos Ag; Yan, Yajun

2016-02-01

Nutraceuticals are important natural bioactive compounds that confer health-promoting and medical benefits to humans. Globally growing demands for value-added nutraceuticals for prevention and treatment of human diseases have rendered nutraceuticals a multi-billion dollar market. However, supply limitations and extraction difficulties from natural sources such as plants, animals or fungi, restrict the large-scale use of nutraceuticals. Metabolic engineering via microbial production platforms has been advanced as an eco-friendly alternative approach for production of value-added nutraceuticals from simple carbon sources. Microbial platforms like the most widely used Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae have been engineered as versatile cell factories for production of diverse and complex value-added chemicals such as phytochemicals, prebiotics, polysaccaharides and poly amino acids. This review highlights the recent progresses in biological production of value-added nutraceuticals via metabolic engineering approaches. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extractive waste management: A risk analysis approach.

PubMed

Mehta, Neha; Dino, Giovanna Antonella; Ajmone-Marsan, Franco; Lasagna, Manuela; Romè, Chiara; De Luca, Domenico Antonio

2018-05-01

Abandoned mine sites continue to present serious environmental hazards because the heavy metals associated with extractive waste are continuously released into the environment, where they threaten human life and the environment. Remediating and securing extractive waste are complex, lengthy and costly processes. Thus, in most European countries, a site is considered for intervention when it poses a risk to human health and the surrounding environment. As a consequence, risk analysis presents a viable decisional approach towards the management of extractive waste. To evaluate the effects posed by extractive waste to human health and groundwater, a risk analysis approach was used for an abandoned nickel extraction site in Campello Monti in North Italy. This site is located in the Southern Italian Alps. The area consists of large and voluminous mafic rocks intruded by mantle peridotite. The mining activities in this area have generated extractive waste. A risk analysis of the site was performed using Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) guidelines, considering the properties of extractive waste and water for the properties of environmental matrices. The results showed the presence of carcinogenic risk due to arsenic and risks to groundwater due to nickel. The results of the risk analysis form a basic understanding of the current situation at the site, which is affected by extractive waste. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

No added value of age at menopause and the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles for cardiovascular risk prediction in postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Atsma, Femke; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Grobbee, Diederick E; Hoes, Arno W; Bartelink, Marie-Louise E L

2008-11-12

The aim of the present study was to investigate the added value of age at menopause and the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles in cardiovascular risk prediction in postmenopausal women. This study included 971 women. The ankle-arm index was used as a proxy for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The ankle-arm index was calculated for each leg by dividing the highest ankle systolic blood pressure by the highest brachial systolic blood pressure. A cut-off value of 0.95 was used to differentiate between low and high risk women. Three cardiovascular risk models were constructed. In the initial model all classical predictors for cardiovascular disease were investigated. This model was then extended by age at menopause or the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles to test their added value for cardiovascular risk prediction. Differences in discriminative power between the models were investigated by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The mean age was 66.0 (+/-5.6) years. The 6 independent predictors for cardiovascular disease were age, systolic blood pressure, total to HDL cholesterol ratio, current smoking, glucose level, and body mass index > or =30 kg/m(2). The ROC area was 0.69 (0.64-0.73) and did not change when age at menopause or the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles was added. The findings in this study among postmenopausal women did not support the view that age at menopause or a refined estimation of lifetime endogenous estrogen exposure would improve cardiovascular risk prediction as approximated by the ankle-arm index.

Short-term modern life-like stress exacerbates Aβ-pathology and synapse loss in 3xTg-AD mice.

PubMed

Baglietto-Vargas, David; Chen, Yuncai; Suh, Dongjin; Ager, Rahasson R; Rodriguez-Ortiz, Carlos J; Medeiros, Rodrigo; Myczek, Kristoffer; Green, Kim N; Baram, Tallie Z; LaFerla, Frank M

2015-09-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurological disorder that impairs memory and other cognitive functions in the elderly. The social and financial impacts of AD are overwhelming and are escalating exponentially as a result of population aging. Therefore, identifying AD-related risk factors and the development of more efficacious therapeutic approaches are critical to cure this neurological disorder. Current epidemiological evidence indicates that life experiences, including chronic stress, are a risk for AD. However, it is unknown if short-term stress, lasting for hours, influences the onset or progression of AD. Here, we determined the effect of short-term, multi-modal 'modern life-like' stress on AD pathogenesis and synaptic plasticity in mice bearing three AD mutations (the 3xTg-AD mouse model). We found that combined emotional and physical stress lasting 5 h severely impaired memory in wild-type mice and tended to impact it in already low-performing 3xTg-AD mice. This stress reduced the number of synapse-bearing dendritic spines in 3xTg-AD mice and increased Aβ levels by augmenting AβPP processing. Thus, short-term stress simulating modern-life conditions may exacerbate cognitive deficits in preclinical AD by accelerating amyloid pathology and reducing synapse numbers. Epidemiological evidence indicates that life experiences, including chronic stress, are a risk for Alzheimer disease (AD). However, it is unknown if short stress in the range of hours influences the onset or progression of AD. Here, we determined the effect of short, multi-modal 'modern-lifelike'stress on AD pathogenesis and synaptic plasticity in mice bearing three AD mutations (the 3xTg-AD mouse model). We found that combined emotional and physical stress lasting 5 h severely impaired memory in wild-type mice and tended to impact it in already low-performing 3xTg-AD mice. This stress reduced the number of synapse-bearing dendritic spines in 3xTg-AD mice and increased Aβ levels by

A Holistic Approach for Risk Management During Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila

2006-01-01

In this paper, an approach for the identification, assessment, mitigation and continuous management of risks during the process of designing a space mission is presented. This approach has been developed by observing the risk patterns that occur at the Project Design Center of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (TeamX) which develops conceptual, concurrent design of Space Missions. TeamX develops an end-to-end conceptual design of a Space Mission in a matter of one or two weeks. As the risk chair in TeamX, the author has had the opportunity to observe the risk patterns that occur during design over the course of many design sessions. This paper introduces an abstraction and generalization of those patterns. Risk is defined as anything that can go wrong, along with its approximate likelihood and consequence. The indicators, and causes, and effects of these risks are cross cutting across the multiple levels of people and processes involved in the design, and the actual design product itself.

Relationship Risks in Context: A Cumulative Risk Approach to Understanding Relationship Satisfaction

PubMed Central

Rauer, Amy J.; Karney, Benjamin R.; Garvan, Cynthia W.; Hou, Wei

2009-01-01

Risks associated with less satisfying intimate relationships often co-occur within individuals, raising questions about approaches that consider only their independent impact. Utilizing the cumulative risk model, which acknowledges the natural covariation of risk factors, this study examined individuals in intimate relationships using the Florida Family Formation Survey (n = 2,876) and a replication sample (n = 1,048). Analyses confirmed that not only was relationship satisfaction lower among those with more risks, but the cumulative risk score was predictive above and beyond the individual risk factors. Furthermore, experiencing multiple risks exacerbated the negative associations between individual risks and relationship satisfaction, suggesting that the operation of a risk factor in a relationship is moderated by the presence or absence of other risks. PMID:19587840

Primary Prevention With Statins: ACC/AHA Risk-Based Approach Versus Trial-Based Approaches to Guide Statin Therapy.

PubMed

Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Falk, Erling

2015-12-22

Guidelines recommend initiating primary prevention for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) with statins based on absolute ASCVD risk assessment. Recently, alternative trial-based and hybrid approaches were suggested for statin treatment eligibility. This study compared these approaches in a direct head-to-head fashion in a contemporary population. The study used the CGPS (Copenhagen General Population Study) with 37,892 subjects aged 40 to 75 years recruited in 2003 to 2008, all free of ASCVD, diabetes, and statin use at baseline. Among the population studied, 42% were eligible for statin therapy according to the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) risk assessment and cholesterol treatment guidelines approach, versus 56% with the trial-based approach and 21% with the hybrid approach. Among these statin-eligible subjects, the ASCVD event rate per 1,000 person-years was 9.8, 6.8, and 11.2, respectively. The ACC/AHA-recommended absolute risk score was well calibrated around the 7.5% 10-year ASCVD risk treatment threshold and discriminated better than the trial-based or hybrid approaches. Compared with the ACC/AHA risk-based approach, the net reclassification index for eligibility for statin therapy among 40- to 75-year-old subjects from the CGPS was -0.21 for the trial-based approach and -0.13 for the hybrid approach. The clinical performance of the ACC/AHA risk-based approach for primary prevention of ASCVD with statins was superior to the trial-based and hybrid approaches. Our results indicate that the ACC/AHA guidelines will prevent more ASCVD events than the trial-based and hybrid approaches, while treating fewer people compared with the trial-based approach. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical risk management approach for long-duration space missions.

PubMed

Gray, Gary W; Sargsyan, Ashot E; Davis, Jeffrey R

2010-12-01

In the process of crewmember evaluation and certification for long-duration orbital missions, the International Space Station (ISS) Multilateral Space Medicine Board (MSMB) encounters a surprisingly wide spectrum of clinical problems. Some of these conditions are identified within the ISS Medical Standards as requiring special consideration, or as falling outside the consensus Medical Standards promulgated for the ISS program. To assess the suitability for long-duration missions on ISS for individuals with medical problems that fall outside of standards or are otherwise of significant concern, the MSMB has developed a risk matrix approach to assess the risks to the individual, the mission, and the program. The goal of this risk assessment is to provide a more objective, evidence- and risk-based approach for aeromedical disposition. Using a 4 x 4 risk matrix, the probability of an event is plotted against the potential impact. Event probability is derived from a detailed review of clinical and aerospace literature, and based on the best available evidence. The event impact (consequences) is assessed and assigned within the matrix. The result has been a refinement of MSMB case assessment based on evidence-based data incorporated into a risk stratification process. This has encouraged an objective assessment of risk and, in some cases, has resulted in recertification of crewmembers with medical conditions which hitherto would likely have been disqualifying. This paper describes a risk matrix approach developed for MSMB disposition decisions. Such an approach promotes objective, evidence-based decision-making and is broadly applicable within the aerospace medicine community.

New Insights on the Risk for Cardiovascular Disease in African Americans: The Role of Added Sugars

PubMed Central

Saab, Karim R.; Kendrick, Jessica; Yracheta, Joseph M.; Lanaspa, Miguel A.; Pollard, Maisha

2015-01-01

African Americans are at increased risk for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, including obesity, high BP, diabetes, CKD, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Here we summarize the current risks and provide an overview of the underlying risk factors that may account for these associations. By reviewing the relationship between cardiovascular and renal diseases and the African-American population during the early 20th century, the historic and recent associations of African heritage with cardiovascular disease, and modern population genetics, it is possible to assemble strong hypotheses for the primary underlying mechanisms driving the increased frequency of disease in African Americans. Our studies suggest that underlying genetic mechanisms may be responsible for the increased frequency of high BP and kidney disease in African Americans, with particular emphasis on the role of APOL1 polymorphisms in causing kidney disease. In contrast, the Western diet, particularly the relatively high intake of fructose-containing sugars and sweetened beverages, appears to be the dominant force driving the increased risk of diabetes, obesity, and downstream complications. Given that intake of added sugars is a remediable risk factor, we recommend clinical trials to examine the reduction of sweetened beverages as a primary means for reducing cardiovascular risk in African Americans. PMID:25090991

A Humanistic Approach to Emotional Risk Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubendall, Robert L.

Adventure programs attempt to control or limit injuries in high-risk programming. This risk management has concentrated on the physical safety of participants at the expense of emotional and developmental security. In the zeal for accident-free statistics, a highly controlled, directive approach is created that treats individuals according to a…

The Principal Axis Approach to Value-Added Calculation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

He, Qingping; Tymms, Peter

2014-01-01

The assessment of the achievement of students and the quality of schools has drawn increasing attention from educational researchers, policy makers, and practitioners. Various test-based accountability and feedback systems involving the use of value-added techniques have been developed for evaluating the effectiveness of individual teaching…

Performance Analysis of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) and Breakdown of Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabassum, Asma

This thesis work analyzes the performance of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data received from Grand Forks International Airport, detects anomalies in the data and quantifies the associated potential risk. This work also assesses severity associated anomalous data in Detect and Avoid (DAA) for Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS). The received data were raw and archived in GDL-90 format. A python module is developed to parse the raw data into readable data in a .csv file. The anomaly detection algorithm is based on Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) ADS-B performance assessment report. An extensive study is carried out on two main types of anomalies, namely dropouts and altitude deviations. A dropout is considered when the update rate exceeds three seconds. Dropouts are of different durations and have a different level of risk depending on how much time ADS-B is unavailable as the surveillance system. Altitude deviation refers to the deviation between barometric and geometric altitude. Deviation ranges from 25 feet to 600 feet have been observed. As of now, barometric altitude has been used for separation and surveillance while geometric altitude can be used in cases where barometric altitude is not available. Many UAS might not have both sensors installed on board due to size and weight constrains. There might be a chance of misinterpretation of vertical separation specially while flying in National Airspace (NAS) if the ownship UAS and intruder manned aircraft use two different altitude sources for separation standard. The characteristics and agreement between two different altitudes is investigated with a regression based approach. Multiple risk matrices are established based on the severity of the DAA well clear. ADS-B is called the Backbone of FAA Next Generation Air Transportation System, NextGen. NextGen is the series of inter-linked programs, systems, and policies that implement advanced technologies and capabilities. ADS-B utilizes the

Data Analysis Approaches for the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization Toolkit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mandelli, Diego; Alfonsi, Andrea; Maljovec, Daniel P.

2016-09-01

In the past decades, several numerical simulation codes have been employed to simulate accident dynamics (e.g., RELAP5-3D, RELAP-7, MELCOR, MAAP). In order to evaluate the impact of uncertainties into accident dynamics, several stochastic methodologies have been coupled with these codes. These stochastic methods range from classical Monte-Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling to stochastic polynomial methods. Similar approaches have been introduced into the risk and safety community where stochastic methods (such as RAVEN, ADAPT, MCDET, ADS) have been coupled with safety analysis codes in order to evaluate the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events. These approaches are usually calledmore » Dynamic PRA or simulation-based PRA methods. These uncertainties and safety methods usually generate a large number of simulation runs (database storage may be on the order of gigabytes or higher). The scope of this paper is to present a broad overview of methods and algorithms that can be used to analyze and extract information from large data sets containing time dependent data. In this context, “extracting information” means constructing input-output correlations, finding commonalities, and identifying outliers. Some of the algorithms presented here have been developed or are under development within the RAVEN statistical framework.« less

An Approach to Risk-Based Design Incorporating Damage Tolerance Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Sleight, David W.

2002-01-01

Incorporating risk-based design as an integral part of spacecraft development is becoming more and more common. Assessment of uncertainties associated with design parameters and environmental aspects such as loading provides increased knowledge of the design and its performance. Results of such studies can contribute to mitigating risk through a system-level assessment. Understanding the risk of an event occurring, the probability of its occurrence, and the consequences of its occurrence can lead to robust, reliable designs. This paper describes an approach to risk-based structural design incorporating damage-tolerance analysis. The application of this approach to a candidate Earth-entry vehicle is described. The emphasis of the paper is on describing an approach for establishing damage-tolerant structural response inputs to a system-level probabilistic risk assessment.

Implementing Value-Added Measures of School Effectiveness: Getting the Incentives Right.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ladd, Helen F.; Walsh, Randall P.

2002-01-01

Evaluates value-added approach to measuring school effectiveness in North and South Carolina. Finds that value-added approach favors high-achievement schools, with large percentage of students from high-SES backgrounds. Discusses statistical problems in measuring value added. Concludes teachers' and administrators' avoidance of low-achievement,…

Consumption of added sugars from liquid but not solid sources predicts impaired glucose homeostasis and insulin resistance among youth at risk of obesity.

PubMed

Wang, Jiawei; Light, Kelly; Henderson, Mélanie; O'Loughlin, Jennifer; Mathieu, Marie-Eve; Paradis, Gilles; Gray-Donald, Katherine

2014-01-01

Little is known about longitudinal associations between added sugar consumption (solid and liquid sources) and glucose-insulin homeostasis among youth. Caucasian children (8-10 y) with at least one obese biological parent were recruited in the QUébec Adipose and Lifestyle InvesTigation in Youth (QUALITY) cohort (n = 630) and followed-up 2 y later (n = 564). Added sugars were assessed by 3 24-h dietary recalls at baseline. Two-year changes were examined in multivariate linear regression models, adjusting for baseline level, age, sex, Tanner stage, energy intake, fat mass (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), and physical activity (7 d accelerometer). Added sugar intake in either liquid or solid sources was not related to changes in adiposity measures (fat mass, body mass index, or waist circumference). However, a higher consumption (10 g/d) of added sugars from liquid sources was associated with 0.04 mmol/L higher fasting glucose, 2.3 pmol/L higher fasting insulin, 0.1 unit higher homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and 0.4 unit lower Matsuda-insulin sensitivity index (Matsuda-ISI) in all participants (P < 0.01). No associations were observed with consumption of added sugars from solid sources. Overweight/obese children at baseline had greater increases in adiposity indicators, fasting insulin, and HOMA-IR and decreases in Matsuda-ISI during those 2 y than normal-weight children. Consumption of added sugars from liquid or solid sources was not associated with changes in adiposity, but liquid added sugars were a risk factor for the development of impaired glucose homeostasis and insulin resistance over 2 y among youth at risk of obesity.

Parent ads in the National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign.

PubMed

Stephenson, Michael T; Quick, Brian L

2005-12-01

The National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign aims not only to reduce drug use by teens and preteens, but also to arm parents with knowledge about specific parenting practices known to reduce the risk of teen drug use. Among the documented successes of the campaign to date was a small, but direct effect on some parenting practices, including parent-child discussions about drug use. To reach a deeper understanding about the substance of the parental ads, we content analyzed the message strategies employed in the campaign's parent ads over the inaugural 5 years of the campaign. Each ad was coded for its major theme, minor subtheme, and featured drug. Among seven possible major themes, the parental anti-drug ads largely featured four: enhance the risk of their child's drug use, encourage monitoring practices, promote parent-child discussions about drug use, or advocate positive involvement behaviors. Moreover, most parental messages addressed marijuana use or addressed drug use in general. Marijuana and inhalant ads largely were risk based, while general drug messages focused on monitoring, parent-child discussions or positive involvement practices.

Constructing the AdS dual of a Fermi liquid: AdS black holes with Dirac hair

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Čubrović, Mihailo; Zaanen, Jan; Schalm, Koenraad

2011-10-01

We provide evidence that the holographic dual to a strongly coupled charged Fermi liquid has a non-zero fermion density in the bulk. We show that the pole-strength of the stable quasiparticle characterizing the Fermi surface is encoded in the AdS probability density of a single normalizable fermion wavefunction in AdS. Recalling Migdal's theorem which relates the pole strength to the Fermi-Dirac characteristic discontinuity in the number density at ω F , we conclude that the AdS dual of a Fermi liquid is described by occupied on-shell fermionic modes in AdS. Encoding the occupied levels in the total spatially averaged probability density of the fermion field directly, we show that an AdS Reissner-Nordström black holein a theory with charged fermions has a critical temperature, at which the system undergoes a first-order transition to a black hole with a non-vanishing profile for the bulk fermion field. Thermodynamics and spectral analysis support that the solution with non-zero AdS fermion-profile is the preferred ground state at low temperatures.

A counterfactual p-value approach for benefit-risk assessment in clinical trials.

PubMed

Zeng, Donglin; Chen, Ming-Hui; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Wei, Rachel; Ding, Beiying; Ke, Chunlei; Jiang, Qi

2015-01-01

Clinical trials generally allow various efficacy and safety outcomes to be collected for health interventions. Benefit-risk assessment is an important issue when evaluating a new drug. Currently, there is a lack of standardized and validated benefit-risk assessment approaches in drug development due to various challenges. To quantify benefits and risks, we propose a counterfactual p-value (CP) approach. Our approach considers a spectrum of weights for weighting benefit-risk values and computes the extreme probabilities of observing the weighted benefit-risk value in one treatment group as if patients were treated in the other treatment group. The proposed approach is applicable to single benefit and single risk outcome as well as multiple benefit and risk outcomes assessment. In addition, the prior information in the weight schemes relevant to the importance of outcomes can be incorporated in the approach. The proposed CPs plot is intuitive with a visualized weight pattern. The average area under CP and preferred probability over time are used for overall treatment comparison and a bootstrap approach is applied for statistical inference. We assess the proposed approach using simulated data with multiple efficacy and safety endpoints and compare its performance with a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis approach.

Assessing health risks of synthetic vitreous fibers: an integrative approach.

PubMed

McClellan, R O

1994-12-01

This paper reviews a tiered approach to acquiring information from multiple experimental systems to understand and assess the potential human health risks of exposure to airborne synthetic fibers. The approach is grounded in the now widely accepted research-risk assessment-risk management paradigm. It involves the acquisition of information that will provide mechanistic linkages within the exposure-dose-response paradigm. It advocates the use of the inhalation route of exposure for developing relevant information for assessing human health risks and calls attention to serious problems encountered using nonphysiologic routes of administration to assess human health risks.

SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

EPA Science Inventory

All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

Segmented strings in AdS 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Callebaut, Nele; Gubser, Steven S.; Samberg, Andreas

We study segmented strings in flat space and in AdS 3. In flat space, these well known classical motions describe strings which at any instant of time are piecewise linear. In AdS 3, the worldsheet is composed of faces each of which is a region bounded by null geodesics in an AdS 2 subspace of AdS 3. The time evolution can be described by specifying the null geodesic motion of kinks in the string at which two segments are joined. The outcome of collisions of kinks on the worldsheet can be worked out essentially using considerations of causality. We studymore » several examples of closed segmented strings in AdS 3 and find an unexpected quasi-periodic behavior. Here, we also work out a WKB analysis of quantum states of yo-yo strings in AdS 5 and find a logarithmic term reminiscent of the logarithmic twist of string states on the leading Regge trajectory.« less

Segmented strings in AdS 3

DOE PAGES

Callebaut, Nele; Gubser, Steven S.; Samberg, Andreas; ...

2015-11-17

We study segmented strings in flat space and in AdS 3. In flat space, these well known classical motions describe strings which at any instant of time are piecewise linear. In AdS 3, the worldsheet is composed of faces each of which is a region bounded by null geodesics in an AdS 2 subspace of AdS 3. The time evolution can be described by specifying the null geodesic motion of kinks in the string at which two segments are joined. The outcome of collisions of kinks on the worldsheet can be worked out essentially using considerations of causality. We studymore » several examples of closed segmented strings in AdS 3 and find an unexpected quasi-periodic behavior. Here, we also work out a WKB analysis of quantum states of yo-yo strings in AdS 5 and find a logarithmic term reminiscent of the logarithmic twist of string states on the leading Regge trajectory.« less

Late-onset Alzheimer disease genetic variants in posterior cortical atrophy and posterior AD.

PubMed

Carrasquillo, Minerva M; Khan, Qurat ul Ain; Murray, Melissa E; Krishnan, Siddharth; Aakre, Jeremiah; Pankratz, V Shane; Nguyen, Thuy; Ma, Li; Bisceglio, Gina; Petersen, Ronald C; Younkin, Steven G; Dickson, Dennis W; Boeve, Bradley F; Graff-Radford, Neill R; Ertekin-Taner, Nilüfer

2014-04-22

To investigate association of genetic risk factors for late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) with risk of posterior cortical atrophy (PCA), a syndrome of visual impairment with predominant Alzheimer disease (AD) pathology in posterior cortical regions, and with risk of "posterior AD" neuropathology. We assessed 81 participants with PCA diagnosed clinically and 54 with neuropathologic diagnosis of posterior AD vs 2,523 controls for association with 11 significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from published LOAD risk genome-wide association studies. There was highly significant association with APOE ε4 and increased risk of PCA (p = 0.0003, odds ratio [OR] = 3.17) and posterior AD (p = 1.11 × 10(-17), OR = 6.43). No other locus was significant after corrections for multiple testing, although rs11136000 near CLU (p = 0.019, OR = 0.60) and rs744373 near BIN1 (p = 0.025, OR = 1. 63) associated nominally significantly with posterior AD, and rs3851179 at the PICALM locus had significant association with PCA (p = 0.0003, OR = 2.84). ABCA7 locus SNP rs3764650, which was also tested under the recessive model because of Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium, also had nominally significant association with PCA risk. The direction of association at APOE, CLU, and BIN1 loci was the same for participants with PCA and posterior AD. The effects for all SNPs, except rs3851179, were consistent with those for LOAD risk. We identified a significant effect for APOE and nominate CLU, BIN1, and ABCA7 as additional risk loci for PCA and posterior AD. Our findings suggest that at least some of the genetic risk factors for LOAD are shared with these atypical conditions and provide effect-size estimates for their future genetic studies.

Cardiorespiratory fitness alters the influence of a polygenic risk score on biomarkers of AD.

PubMed

Schultz, Stephanie A; Boots, Elizabeth A; Darst, Burcu F; Zetterberg, Henrik; Blennow, Kaj; Edwards, Dorothy F; Koscik, Rebecca L; Carlsson, Cynthia M; Gallagher, Catherine L; Bendlin, Barbara B; Asthana, Sanjay; Sager, Mark A; Hogan, Kirk J; Hermann, Bruce P; Cook, Dane B; Johnson, Sterling C; Engelman, Corinne D; Okonkwo, Ozioma C

2017-04-25

To examine whether a polygenic risk score (PRS) derived from APOE4, CLU, and ABCA7 is associated with CSF biomarkers of Alzheimer disease (AD) pathology and whether higher cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) modifies the association between the PRS and CSF biomarkers. Ninety-five individuals from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention were included in these cross-sectional analyses. They were genotyped for APOE4 , CLU , and ABCA7 , from which a PRS was calculated for each participant. The participants underwent lumbar puncture for CSF collection. β-Amyloid 42 (Aβ 42 ), Aβ 40 , total tau (t-tau), and phosphorylated tau (p-tau) were quantified by immunoassays, and Aβ 42 /Aβ 40 and tau/Aβ 42 ratios were computed. CRF was estimated from a validated equation incorporating sex, age, body mass index, resting heart rate, and self-reported physical activity. Covariate-adjusted regression analyses were used to test for associations between the PRS and CSF biomarkers. In addition, by including a PRS×CRF term in the models, we examined whether these associations were modified by CRF. A higher PRS was associated with lower Aβ 42 /Aβ 40 ( p < 0.001), higher t-tau/Aβ 42 ( p = 0.012), and higher p-tau/Aβ 42 ( p = 0.040). Furthermore, we observed PRS × CRF interactions for Aβ 42 /Aβ 40 ( p = 0.003), t-tau/Aβ 42 ( p = 0.003), and p-tau/Aβ 42 ( p = 0.001). Specifically, the association between the PRS and these CSF biomarkers was diminished in those with higher CRF. In a late-middle-aged cohort, CRF attenuates the adverse influence of genetic vulnerability on CSF biomarkers. These findings support the notion that increased cardiorespiratory fitness may be beneficial to those at increased genetic risk for AD. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Sex steroid levels and AD-like pathology in 3xTgAD mice

PubMed Central

Ma, Chunqi; Taves, Matthew D.; Soma, Kiran K.; Mufson, Elliott J.

2014-01-01

Decreases in testosterone (T) and 17β-oestradiol (E2) are associated with an increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD), which has been attributed to an increase in beta amyloid (Aβ) and tau pathologic lesions. While recent studies have used transgenic animal models to test the effects of sex steroid manipulations on AD-like pathology, virtually none have systematically characterised the associations between AD lesions and sex steroid levels in the blood or brain in any mutant model. The present study evaluated age-related changes in T and E2 concentrations, as well as androgen receptor (AR) and oestrogen receptor (ER) α and β expression, in brain regions displaying AD pathology in intact male and female 3xTgAD and non-transgenic (ntg) mice. We report for the first time that circulating and brain T levels significantly increase in male 3xTgAD mice with age, but without changes in AR-immunoreactive (ir) cell number in either the hippocampal CA1 or medial amygdala. The age-related increase in hippocampal T levels correlated positively with increases in the conformational tau isoform, Alz50. These data suggest that the over-expression of human tau may up regulate the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis in these mice. Although circulating and brain E2 levels remained stable with age in both male and female 3xTgAD and ntg mice, ER-ir cell number in the hippocampus and medial amygdala decreased with age in female transgenic mice. Further, E2 levels were significantly higher in the hippocampus than in serum, suggesting local production of E2. Although triple transgenic mice mimic AD-like pathology, they do not fully replicate changes in human sex steroid levels, and may not be the best model for studying the effects of sex steroids on AD lesions. PMID:22889357

Advances in Imaging Approaches to Fracture Risk Evaluation

PubMed Central

Manhard, Mary Kate; Nyman, Jeffry S.; Does, Mark D.

2016-01-01

Fragility fractures are a growing problem worldwide, and current methods for diagnosing osteoporosis do not always identify individuals who require treatment to prevent a fracture and may misidentify those not a risk. Traditionally, fracture risk is assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, which provides measurements of areal bone mineral density (BMD) at sites prone to fracture. Recent advances in imaging show promise in adding new information that could improve the prediction of fracture risk in the clinic. As reviewed herein, advances in quantitative computed tomography (QCT) predict hip and vertebral body strength; high resolution HR-peripheral QCT (HR-pQCT) and micro-magnetic resonance imaging (μMRI) assess the micro-architecture of trabecular bone; quantitative ultrasound (QUS) measures the modulus or tissue stiffness of cortical bone; and quantitative ultra-short echo time MRI methods quantify the concentrations of bound water and pore water in cortical bone, which reflect a variety of mechanical properties of bone. Each of these technologies provides unique characteristics of bone and may improve fracture risk diagnoses and reduce prevalence of fractures by helping to guide treatment decisions. PMID:27816505

A risk based approach for SSTO/TSTO comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenberg, Joel S.

1996-03-01

An approach has been developed for performing early comparisons of transportation architectures explicitly taking into account quantitative measures of uncertainty and resulting risk. Risk considerations are necessary since the transportation systems are likely to have significantly different levels of risk, both because of differing degrees of freedom in achieving desired performance levels and their different states of development and utilization. The approach considers the uncertainty of achievement of technology goals, effect that the achieved technology level will have on transportation system performance and the relationship between system performance/capability and the ability to accommodate variations in payload mass. The consequences of system performance are developed in terms of nonrecurring, recurring, and the present value of transportation system life cycle costs.

Added Sugar Consumption and Chronic Oral Disease Burden among Adolescents in Brazil.

PubMed

Carmo, C D S; Ribeiro, M R C; Teixeira, J X P; Alves, C M C; Franco, M M; França, A K T C; Benatti, B B; Cunha-Cruz, J; Ribeiro, C C C

2018-05-01

Chronic oral diseases are rarely studied together, especially with an emphasis on their common risk factors. This study examined the association of added sugar consumption on "chronic oral disease burden" among adolescents, with consideration of obesity and systemic inflammation pathways through structural equation modeling. A cross-sectional study was conducted of a complex random sample of adolescent students enrolled at public schools in São Luís, Brazil ( n = 405). The outcome was chronic oral disease burden, a latent variable based on the presence of probing depth ≥4 mm, bleeding on probing, caries, and clinical consequences of untreated caries. The following hypotheses were tested: 1) caries and periodontal diseases among adolescents are correlated with each other; 2) added sugar consumption and obesity are associated with chronic oral disease burden; and 3) chronic oral disease burden is linked to systemic inflammation. Models were adjusted for socioeconomic status, added sugar consumption, oral hygiene behaviors, obesity, and serum levels of interleukin 6 (IL-6). All estimators of the latent variable chronic oral disease burden involved factor loadings ≥0.5 and P values <0.001, indicating good fit. Added sugar consumption (standardized coefficient [SC] = 0.212, P = 0.005), high IL-6 levels (SC = 0.130, P = 0.036), and low socioeconomic status (SC = -0.279, P = 0.001) were associated with increased chronic oral disease burden values. Obesity was associated with high IL-6 levels (SC = 0.232, P = 0.001). Visible plaque index was correlated with chronic oral disease burden (SC = 0.381, P < 0.001). Our finding that caries and periodontal diseases are associated with each other and with added sugar consumption, obesity, and systemic inflammation reinforces the guidance of the World Health Organization that any approach intended to prevent noncommunicable diseases should be directed toward common risk factors.

Warped AdS3 black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Wei; Anninos, Dionysios; Li, Wei; Padi, Megha; Strominger, Andrew

2009-03-01

Three dimensional topologically massive gravity (TMG) with a negative cosmological constant -ell-2 and positive Newton constant G admits an AdS3 vacuum solution for any value of the graviton mass μ. These are all known to be perturbatively unstable except at the recently explored chiral point μell = 1. However we show herein that for every value of μell ≠ 3 there are two other (potentially stable) vacuum solutions given by SL(2,Bbb R) × U(1)-invariant warped AdS3 geometries, with a timelike or spacelike U(1) isometry. Critical behavior occurs at μell = 3, where the warping transitions from a stretching to a squashing, and there are a pair of warped solutions with a null U(1) isometry. For μell > 3, there are known warped black hole solutions which are asymptotic to warped AdS3. We show that these black holes are discrete quotients of warped AdS3 just as BTZ black holes are discrete quotients of ordinary AdS3. Moreover new solutions of this type, relevant to any theory with warped AdS3 solutions, are exhibited. Finally we note that the black hole thermodynamics is consistent with the hypothesis that, for μell > 3, the warped AdS3 ground state of TMG is holographically dual to a 2D boundary CFT with central charges c_R-formula and c_L-formula.

Warped AdS3 black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anninos, Dionysios; Li, Wei; Padi, Megha; Song, Wei; Strominger, Andrew

2009-03-01

Three dimensional topologically massive gravity (TMG) with a negative cosmological constant -l-2 and positive Newton constant G admits an AdS3 vacuum solution for any value of the graviton mass μ. These are all known to be perturbatively unstable except at the recently explored chiral point μl = 1. However we show herein that for every value of μl ≠ 3 there are two other (potentially stable) vacuum solutions given by SL(2,Bbb R) × U(1)-invariant warped AdS3 geometries, with a timelike or spacelike U(1) isometry. Critical behavior occurs at μl = 3, where the warping transitions from a stretching to a squashing, and there are a pair of warped solutions with a null U(1) isometry. For μl > 3, there are known warped black hole solutions which are asymptotic to warped AdS3. We show that these black holes are discrete quotients of warped AdS3 just as BTZ black holes are discrete quotients of ordinary AdS3. Moreover new solutions of this type, relevant to any theory with warped AdS3 solutions, are exhibited. Finally we note that the black hole thermodynamics is consistent with the hypothesis that, for μl > 3, the warped AdS3 ground state of TMG is holographically dual to a 2D boundary CFT with central charges c_R-formula and c_L-formula.

An adaptive neural swarm approach for intrusion defense in ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannady, James

2011-06-01

Wireless sensor networks (WSN) and mobile ad hoc networks (MANET) are being increasingly deployed in critical applications due to the flexibility and extensibility of the technology. While these networks possess numerous advantages over traditional wireless systems in dynamic environments they are still vulnerable to many of the same types of host-based and distributed attacks common to those systems. Unfortunately, the limited power and bandwidth available in WSNs and MANETs, combined with the dynamic connectivity that is a defining characteristic of the technology, makes it extremely difficult to utilize traditional intrusion detection techniques. This paper describes an approach to accurately and efficiently detect potentially damaging activity in WSNs and MANETs. It enables the network as a whole to recognize attacks, anomalies, and potential vulnerabilities in a distributive manner that reflects the autonomic processes of biological systems. Each component of the network recognizes activity in its local environment and then contributes to the overall situational awareness of the entire system. The approach utilizes agent-based swarm intelligence to adaptively identify potential data sources on each node and on adjacent nodes throughout the network. The swarm agents then self-organize into modular neural networks that utilize a reinforcement learning algorithm to identify relevant behavior patterns in the data without supervision. Once the modular neural networks have established interconnectivity both locally and with neighboring nodes the analysis of events within the network can be conducted collectively in real-time. The approach has been shown to be extremely effective in identifying distributed network attacks.

The challenge of risk characterization: current practice and future directions.

PubMed Central

Gray, G M; Cohen, J T; Graham, J D

1993-01-01

Risk characterization is perhaps the most important part of risk assessment. As currently practiced, risk characterizations do not convey the degree of uncertainty in a risk estimate to risk managers, Congress, the press, and the public. Here, we use a framework put forth by an ad hoc study group of industry and government scientists and academics to critique the risk characterizations contained in two risks assessments of gasoline vapor. After discussing the strengths and weaknesses of each assessment's risk characterization, we detail an alternative approach that conveys estimates in the form of a probability distribution. The distributional approach can make use of all relevant scientific data and knowledge, including alternative data sets and all plausible mechanistic theories of carcinogenesis. As a result, this approach facilitates better public health decisions than current risk characterization procedures. We discuss methodological issues, as well as strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach. PMID:8020444

Multi-analytical Approaches Informing the Risk of Sepsis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gwadry-Sridhar, Femida; Lewden, Benoit; Mequanint, Selam; Bauer, Michael

Sepsis is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity and is often associated with increased hospital resource utilization, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay. The economic burden associated with sepsis is huge. With advances in medicine, there are now aggressive goal oriented treatments that can be used to help these patients. If we were able to predict which patients may be at risk for sepsis we could start treatment early and potentially reduce the risk of mortality and morbidity. Analytic methods currently used in clinical research to determine the risk of a patient developing sepsis may be further enhanced by using multi-modal analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater precision. Researchers commonly use univariate and multivariate regressions to develop predictive models. We hypothesized that such models could be enhanced by using multiple analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater insight. In this paper, we analyze data about patients with and without sepsis using a decision tree approach and a cluster analysis approach. A comparison with a regression approach shows strong similarity among variables identified, though not an exact match. We compare the variables identified by the different approaches and draw conclusions about the respective predictive capabilities,while considering their clinical significance.

Assured Information Sharing for Ad-Hoc Collaboration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jin, Jing

2009-01-01

Collaborative information sharing tends to be highly dynamic and often ad hoc among organizations. The dynamic natures and sharing patterns in ad-hoc collaboration impose a need for a comprehensive and flexible approach to reflecting and coping with the unique access control requirements associated with the environment. This dissertation…

Overcoming the Volatility in School-Level Gain Scores: A New Approach to Identifying Value Added with Cross-Sectional Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Sean; Monczunski, Laura

2007-01-01

Traditionally, state accountability systems have measured school-level achievement gains using cross-sectional data, for example, by comparing scores of one year's eighth graders to scores of the next year's eighth graders. This approach produces extremely volatile estimates of value added from year to year. This volatility suggests that the…

[Atopic dermatitis - risk factors and treatment].

PubMed

Zaleska, Martyna; Trojacka, Ewelina; Savitskyi, Stepan; Terlikowska-Brzósko, Agnieszka; Galus, Ryszard

2017-08-21

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic, inflammatory skin disease characterized by severe itching and eczematic skin lesions. In Poland from 1.5 to 2.5 million people suffer from AD. The pathophysiologic complexity and the wide spectrum of clinical phenotypes cause diagnostic and therapeutic problems and this is the basis for the division of the disease into subtypes. Heterogeneity of the disease is also confirmed in the study of the genotype of the disease. In relation with AZS more than 1000 loci in chromosomes were demonstrated. The roles of certain genes and the pathophysiology of lesions caused by their polymorphism were described. Wide spectrums of AD risk factors are: cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption during pregnancy, obesity and high and low birth weight. The quality of life in patients with AD is impaired, the disease disrupts family and professional relationships. Biological medical products are an example of an individual approach to the treatment of AD. It seems, individual approach to disease and treatment can be a successive solution to the problem.

Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2009-04-01

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

Strings on AdS_3 x S^3 and the Plane-Wave Limit. Issues on PP-Wave/CFT Holography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zapata, Oswaldo

2005-10-01

In this thesis we give explicit results for bosonic string amplitudes on AdS_3 x S^3 and the corresponding plane-wave limit. We also analyze the consequences of our approach for understanding holography in this set up, as well as its possible generalization to other models.

New approaches in human health risk assessment.

PubMed

Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

2016-01-01

Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009-2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

Determinants of Food Safety Risks: A Multi-disciplinary Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knight, Andrew; Warland, Rex

2005-01-01

This research employs a multi-disciplinary approach by developing a model that draws upon psychometric, cultural, and reflexive modernization perspectives of risk perception. Using data from a 1999 national telephone survey, we tested our model on three food risks ? pesticides, Salmonella, and fat. Results showed that perceptions of risks do vary…

Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

EPA Science Inventory

When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

Brick walls and AdS/CFT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kay, Bernard S.; Ortíz, L.

2014-05-01

We discuss the relationship between the bulk-boundary correspondence in Rehren's algebraic holography (and in other `fixed-background', QFT-based, approaches to holography) and in mainstream string-theoretic `Maldacena AdS/CFT'. Especially, we contrast the understanding of black-hole entropy from the point of view of QFT in curved spacetime—in the framework of 't Hooft's `brick wall' model—with the understanding based on Maldacena AdS/CFT. We show that the brick-wall modification of a Klein-Gordon field in the Hartle-Hawking-Israel state on dimensional Schwarzschild AdS has a well-defined boundary limit with the same temperature and entropy as the brick-wall-modified bulk theory. One of our main purposes is to point out a close connection, for general AdS/CFT situations, between the puzzle raised by Arnsdorf and Smolin regarding the relationship between Rehren's algebraic holography and mainstream AdS/CFT and the puzzle embodied in the `complementarity principle' proposed by Mukohyama and Israel in their work on the brick-wall approach to black hole entropy. Working on the assumption that similar results will hold for bulk QFT other than the Klein-Gordon field and for Schwarzschild AdS in other dimensions, and recalling the first author's proposed resolution to the Mukohyama-Israel puzzle based on his `matter-gravity entanglement hypothesis', we argue that, in Maldacena AdS/CFT, the algebra of the boundary CFT is isomorphic only to a proper subalgebra of the bulk algebra, albeit (at non-zero temperature) the (GNS) Hilbert spaces of bulk and boundary theories are still the `same'—the total bulk state being pure, while the boundary state is mixed (thermal). We also argue from the finiteness of its boundary (and hence, on our assumptions, also bulk) entropy at finite temperature, that the Rehren dual of the Maldacena boundary CFT cannot itself be a QFT and must, instead, presumably be something like a string theory.

Multi-dimensional perspectives of flood risk - using a participatory framework to develop new approaches to flood risk communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rollason, Edward; Bracken, Louise; Hardy, Richard; Large, Andy

2017-04-01

Flooding is a major hazard across Europe which, since, 1998 has caused over €52 million in damages and displaced over half a million people. Climate change is predicted to increase the risks posed by flooding in the future. The 2007 EU Flood Directive cemented the use of flood risk maps as a central tool in understanding and communicating flood risk. Following recent flooding in England, an urgent need to integrate people living at risk from flooding into flood management approaches, encouraging flood resilience and the up-take of resilient activities has been acknowledged. The effective communication of flood risk information plays a major role in allowing those at risk to make effective decisions about flood risk and increase their resilience, however, there are emerging concerns over the effectiveness of current approaches. The research presented explores current approaches to flood risk communication in England and the effectiveness of these methods in encouraging resilient actions before and during flooding events. The research also investigates how flood risk communications could be undertaken more effectively, using a novel participatory framework to integrate the perspectives of those living at risk. The research uses co-production between local communities and researchers in the environmental sciences, using a participatory framework to bring together local knowledge of flood risk and flood communications. Using a local competency group, the research explores what those living at risk from flooding want from flood communications in order to develop new approaches to help those at risk understand and respond to floods. Suggestions for practice are refined by the communities to co-produce recommendations. The research finds that current approaches to real-time flood risk communication fail to forecast the significance of predicted floods, whilst flood maps lack detailed information about how floods occur, or use scientific terminology which people at risk

Robust Decision Making Approach to Managing Water Resource Risks (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R.

2010-12-01

The IPCC and US National Academies of Science have recommended iterative risk management as the best approach for water management and many other types of climate-related decisions. Such an approach does not rely on a single set of judgments at any one time but rather actively updates and refines strategies as new information emerges. In addition, the approach emphasizes that a portfolio of different types of responses, rather than any single action, often provides the best means to manage uncertainty. Implementing an iterative risk management approach can however prove difficult in actual decision support applications. This talk will suggest that robust decision making (RDM) provides a particularly useful set of quantitative methods for implementing iterative risk management. This RDM approach is currently being used in a wide variety of water management applications. RDM employs three key concepts that differentiate it from most types of probabilistic risk analysis: 1) characterizing uncertainty with multiple views of the future (which can include sets of probability distributions) rather than a single probabilistic best-estimate, 2) employing a robustness rather than an optimality criterion to assess alternative policies, and 3) organizing the analysis with a vulnerability and response option framework, rather than a predict-then-act framework. This talk will summarize the RDM approach, describe its use in several different types of water management applications, and compare the results to those obtained with other methods.

A data-driven approach to quality risk management

PubMed Central

Alemayehu, Demissie; Alvir, Jose; Levenstein, Marcia; Nickerson, David

2013-01-01

Aim: An effective clinical trial strategy to ensure patient safety as well as trial quality and efficiency involves an integrated approach, including prospective identification of risk factors, mitigation of the risks through proper study design and execution, and assessment of quality metrics in real-time. Such an integrated quality management plan may also be enhanced by using data-driven techniques to identify risk factors that are most relevant in predicting quality issues associated with a trial. In this paper, we illustrate such an approach using data collected from actual clinical trials. Materials and Methods: Several statistical methods were employed, including the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and logistic regression, to identify the presence of association between risk factors and the occurrence of quality issues, applied to data on quality of clinical trials sponsored by Pfizer. Results: Only a subset of the risk factors had a significant association with quality issues, and included: Whether study used Placebo, whether an agent was a biologic, unusual packaging label, complex dosing, and over 25 planned procedures. Conclusion: Proper implementation of the strategy can help to optimize resource utilization without compromising trial integrity and patient safety. PMID:24312890

A data-driven approach to quality risk management.

PubMed

Alemayehu, Demissie; Alvir, Jose; Levenstein, Marcia; Nickerson, David

2013-10-01

An effective clinical trial strategy to ensure patient safety as well as trial quality and efficiency involves an integrated approach, including prospective identification of risk factors, mitigation of the risks through proper study design and execution, and assessment of quality metrics in real-time. Such an integrated quality management plan may also be enhanced by using data-driven techniques to identify risk factors that are most relevant in predicting quality issues associated with a trial. In this paper, we illustrate such an approach using data collected from actual clinical trials. Several statistical methods were employed, including the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and logistic regression, to identify the presence of association between risk factors and the occurrence of quality issues, applied to data on quality of clinical trials sponsored by Pfizer. ONLY A SUBSET OF THE RISK FACTORS HAD A SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATION WITH QUALITY ISSUES, AND INCLUDED: Whether study used Placebo, whether an agent was a biologic, unusual packaging label, complex dosing, and over 25 planned procedures. Proper implementation of the strategy can help to optimize resource utilization without compromising trial integrity and patient safety.

Tailored donor-acceptor polymers with an A-D1-A-D2 structure: controlling intermolecular interactions to enable enhanced polymer photovoltaic devices.

PubMed

Qin, Tianshi; Zajaczkowski, Wojciech; Pisula, Wojciech; Baumgarten, Martin; Chen, Ming; Gao, Mei; Wilson, Gerry; Easton, Christopher D; Müllen, Klaus; Watkins, Scott E

2014-04-23

Extensive efforts have been made to develop novel conjugated polymers that give improved performance in organic photovoltaic devices. The use of polymers based on alternating electron-donating and electron-accepting units not only allows the frontier molecular orbitals to be tuned to maximize the open-circuit voltage of the devices but also controls the optical band gap to increase the number of photons absorbed and thus modifies the other critical device parameter-the short circuit current. In fact, varying the nonchromophoric components of a polymer is often secondary to the efforts to adjust the intermolecular aggregates and improve the charge-carrier mobility. Here, we introduce an approach to polymer synthesis that facilitates simultaneous control over both the structural and electronic properties of the polymers. Through the use of a tailored multicomponent acceptor-donor-acceptor (A-D-A) intermediate, polymers with the unique structure A-D1-A-D2 can be prepared. This approach enables variations in the donor fragment substituents such that control over both the polymer regiochemistry and solubility is possible. This control results in improved intermolecular π-stacking interactions and therefore enhanced charge-carrier mobility. Solar cells using the A-D1-A-D2 structural polymer show short-circuit current densities that are twice that of the simple, random analogue while still maintaining an identical open-circuit voltage. The key finding of this work is that polymers with an A-D1-A-D2 structure offer significant performance benefits over both regioregular and random A-D polymers. The chemical synthesis approach that enables the preparation of A-D1-A-D2 polymers therefore represents a promising new route to materials for high-efficiency organic photovoltaic devices.

Direct and indirect effects of parent stress on child obesity risk and added sugar intake in a sample of Southern California adolescents.

PubMed

Shonkoff, Eleanor T; Dunton, Genevieve F; Chou, Chih-Ping; Leventhal, Adam M; Bluthenthal, Ricky; Pentz, Mary Ann

2017-12-01

Research indicates that children are at higher risk for obesity if their parents have been exposed to a larger number of stressors, yet little is known about effects of parents' subjective, perceived experience of stress on children's eating behaviours and adiposity and whether weight-related parenting practices (i.e. parent rules and positive family meal practices) mediate this relationship. The present study evaluated the direct and mediated relationship between parent perceived stress and child waist circumference and parent stress and child consumption of added sugars one year later. Longitudinal panel data. Eleven communities in Southern California, USA. Data were collected over two waves from parent-child dyads (n 599). Most parents were female (81 %) and Hispanic (51 %); children were 11 years old on average (sd 1·53; range 7-15 years) and 31 % received free school lunch. Perceived parent stress was not significantly associated with child waist circumference or consumption of added sugars one year later, and mediating pathways through parenting practices were not significant. However, parent rules were significantly associated with lower child consumption of added sugars (β=-0·14, P<0·001). Results suggest that parent rules about the types of foods children can eat, clearly explained to children, may decrease child consumption of added sugars but not necessarily lead to changes in obesity risk. Parent- and family-based interventions that support development of healthy rules about child eating have the potential to improve child dietary nutrient intake.

Towards Linking Anonymous Authorship in Casual Sexual Encounter Ads

PubMed Central

Fries, Jason A.; Segre, Alberto M.; Polgreen, Philip M.

2013-01-01

Objective This paper constructs an authorship-linked collection or corpus of anonymous, sex-seeking ads found on the classifieds website Craigslist. This corpus is then used to validate an authorship attribution approach based on identifying near duplicate text in ad clusters, providing insight into how often anonymous individuals post sex-seeking ads and where they meet for encounters. Introduction The increasing use of the Internet to arrange sexual encounters presents challenges to public health agencies formulating STD interventions, particularly in the context of anonymous encounters. These encounters complicate or break traditional interventions. In previous work [1], we examined a corpus of anonymous personal ads seeking sexual encounters from the classifieds website Craigslist and presented a way of linking multiple ads posted across time to a single author. The key observation of our approach is that some ads are simply reposts of older ads, often updated with only minor textual changes. Under the presumption that these ads, when not spam, originate from the same author, we can use efficient near-duplicate detection techniques to cluster ads within some threshold similarity. Linking ads in this way allows us to preserve the anonymity of authors while still extracting useful information on the frequency with which authors post ads, as well as the geographic regions in which they seek encounters. While this process detects many clusters, the lack of a true corpus of authorship-linked ads makes it difficult to validate and tune the parameters of our system. Fortunately, many ad authors provide an obfuscated telephone number in ad text (e.g., 867–5309 becomes 8sixseven5three oh nine) to bypass Craigslist filters, which prohibit including phone numbers in personal ads. By matching phone numbers of this type across all ads, we can create a corpus of ad clusters known to be written by a single author. This authorship corpus can then be used to evaluate and tune

Science-Driven Approach to Disaster Risk and Crisis Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2014-12-01

Disasters due to natural extreme events continue to grow in number and intensity. Disaster risk and crisis management requires long-term planning, and to undertake that planning, a science-driven approach is needed to understand and assess disaster risks and to help in impact assessment and in recovery processes after a disaster. Science is used in assessments and rapid modeling of the disaster impact, in forecasting triggered hazards and risk (e.g., a tsunami or a landslide after a large earthquake), in contacts with and medical treatment of the affected population, and in some other actions. At the stage of response to disaster, science helps to analyze routinely the disaster happened (e.g., the physical processes led to this extreme event; hidden vulnerabilities; etc.) At the stage of recovery, natural scientists improve the existing regional hazard assessments; engineers try to use new science to produce new materials and technologies to make safer houses and infrastructure. At the stage of disaster risk mitigation new scientific methods and approaches are being developed to study natural extreme events; vulnerability of society is periodically investigated, and the measures for increasing the resilience of society to extremes are developed; existing disaster management regulations are improved. At the stage of preparedness, integrated research on disaster risks should be developed to understand the roots of potential disasters. Enhanced forecasting and early warning systems are to be developed reducing predictive uncertainties, and comprehensive disaster risk assessment is to be undertaken at local, regional, national and global levels. Science education should be improved by introducing trans-disciplinary approach to disaster risks. Science can help society by improving awareness about extreme events, enhancing risk communication with policy makers, media and society, and assisting disaster risk management authorities in organization of local and regional

A quality risk management model approach for cell therapy manufacturing.

PubMed

Lopez, Fabio; Di Bartolo, Chiara; Piazza, Tommaso; Passannanti, Antonino; Gerlach, Jörg C; Gridelli, Bruno; Triolo, Fabio

2010-12-01

International regulatory authorities view risk management as an essential production need for the development of innovative, somatic cell-based therapies in regenerative medicine. The available risk management guidelines, however, provide little guidance on specific risk analysis approaches and procedures applicable in clinical cell therapy manufacturing. This raises a number of problems. Cell manufacturing is a poorly automated process, prone to operator-introduced variations, and affected by heterogeneity of the processed organs/tissues and lot-dependent variability of reagent (e.g., collagenase) efficiency. In this study, the principal challenges faced in a cell-based product manufacturing context (i.e., high dependence on human intervention and absence of reference standards for acceptable risk levels) are identified and addressed, and a risk management model approach applicable to manufacturing of cells for clinical use is described for the first time. The use of the heuristic and pseudo-quantitative failure mode and effect analysis/failure mode and critical effect analysis risk analysis technique associated with direct estimation of severity, occurrence, and detection is, in this specific context, as effective as, but more efficient than, the analytic hierarchy process. Moreover, a severity/occurrence matrix and Pareto analysis can be successfully adopted to identify priority failure modes on which to act to mitigate risks. The application of this approach to clinical cell therapy manufacturing in regenerative medicine is also discussed. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

An Entropy Approach to Disclosure Risk Assessment: Lessons from Real Applications and Simulated Domains

PubMed Central

Airoldi, Edoardo M.; Bai, Xue; Malin, Bradley A.

2011-01-01

leveraging the statistical characteristics of a visit distribution, as opposed to person-level data. It is computationally efficient and superior to existing risk assessment methods, which rely on ad hoc assessment that are often computationally expensive and unreliable. We evaluate our approach on a range of location access patterns in simulated environments. Our results demonstrate the approach is effective at estimating trail disclosure risks and the amount of self-information contained in a distributed system is one of the main driving factors. PMID:21647242

Cost-effective advertising through TV and newspaper "banner" ads.

PubMed

Gombeski, William R; Taylor, Jan; Krauss, Katie; Medeiros, Clayton

2003-01-01

Banner ads, small strip ads in newspapers used to specifically promote an information piece, were introduced into one newspaper in the Connecticut market in 1999 by Yale-New Haven Hospital (YNHH). Based on their success, the concept was expanded to six additional newspapers in late 2000 and to TV in the summer of 2001. Between 2000-2002, even as the overall marketing/advertising budget declined 30%, switching advertising dollars from image/display ads to banner ads resulted in consumer awareness of YNHH increasing from 29% to 42%. Perception of YNHH as "the advanced medicine" hospital grew from 22% to 40% during the same period. The specific strategic and operational actions generated since the implementation of the program are detailed and the advantages and disadvantages of this banner advertising approach are discussed. Banner ads may offer an alternative approach for organizations to advertise their products and programs.

New approaches in human health risk assessment

PubMed Central

Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

2016-01-01

Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu). PMID:27974141

Review of qualitative approaches for the construction industry: designing a risk management toolbox.

PubMed

Zalk, David M; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-06-01

This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

PubMed Central

Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-01-01

Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions. PMID:22953194

Beyond Cumulative Risk: A Dimensional Approach to Childhood Adversity.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Katie A; Sheridan, Margaret A

2016-08-01

Children who have experienced environmental adversity-such as abuse, neglect, or poverty-are more likely to develop physical and mental health problems, perform poorly at school, and have difficulties in social relationships than children who have not encountered adversity. What is less clear is how and why adverse early experiences exert such a profound influence on children's development. Identifying developmental processes that are disrupted by adverse early environments is the key to developing better intervention strategies for children who have experienced adversity. Yet, much existing research relies on a cumulative risk approach that is unlikely to reveal these mechanisms. This approach tallies the number of distinct adversities experienced to create a risk score. This risk score fails to distinguish between distinct types of environmental experience, implicitly assuming that very different experiences influence development through the same underlying mechanisms. We advance an alternative model. This novel approach conceptualizes adversity along distinct dimensions, emphasizes the central role of learning mechanisms, and distinguishes between different forms of adversity that might influence learning in distinct ways. A key advantage of this approach is that learning mechanisms provide clear targets for interventions aimed at preventing negative developmental outcomes in children who have experienced adversity.

A novel approach for evaluating the risk of health care failure modes.

PubMed

Chang, Dong Shang; Chung, Jenq Hann; Sun, Kuo Lung; Yang, Fu Chiang

2012-12-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be employed to reduce medical errors by identifying the risk ranking of the health care failure modes and taking priority action for safety improvement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach of data analysis. The approach is to integrate FMEA and a mathematical tool-Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with "slack-based measure" (SBM), in the field of data analysis. The risk indexes (severity, occurrence, and detection) of FMEA are viewed as multiple inputs of DEA. The practicality and usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated by one case of health care. Being a systematic approach for improving the service quality of health care, the approach can offer quantitative corrective information of risk indexes that thereafter reduce failure possibility. For safety improvement, these new targets of the risk indexes could be used for management by objectives. But FMEA cannot provide quantitative corrective information of risk indexes. The novel approach can surely overcome this chief shortcoming of FMEA. After combining DEA SBM model with FMEA, the two goals-increase of patient safety, medical cost reduction-can be together achieved.

A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spickett, Jeffery, E-mail: J.Spickett@curtin.edu.au; Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia; Katscherian, Dianne

2012-01-15

Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component alsomore » identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.« less

A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

DOE PAGES

White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

2014-01-01

This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less

MODELING APPROACHES TO POPULATION-LEVEL RISK AESSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

A SETAC Pellston Workshop on Population-Level Risk Assessment was held in Roskilde, Denmark on 23-27 August 2003. One aspect of this workshop focused on modeling approaches for characterizing population-level effects of chemical exposure. The modeling work group identified th...

From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, M.; Damm, B.

2014-12-01

The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

Taking chances in the face of threat: romantic risk regulation and approach motivation.

PubMed

Cavallo, Justin V; Fitzsimons, Gráinne M; Holmes, John G

2009-06-01

Four studies examine the hypothesis that goals adopted by high and low self-esteem people (HSEs and LSEs) to manage risk in romantic relationships may reflect global shifts in approach motivation and subsequently affect risk taking in nonsocial domains. In Studies 1 and 2, threats to participants' romantic relationships heightened HSEs' self-reported general approach motivation while lowering LSEs' approach motivation. In Studies 2 through 4, HSEs exhibited riskier decision making (i.e., a greater tendency to pursue rewards and ignore risks) in nonsocial domains following a relationship threat manipulation whereas LSEs made more conservative decisions. These results suggest that the romantic risk regulation may be inherently linked to a broader approach and avoidance system and that specific risk regulation behaviors may be driven by global motivational shifts to a greater degree than previously theorized.

INDICATORS OF RISK: AN ANALYSIS APPROACH FOR IMPROVED RIVER MANAGEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

A risk index is an approach to measuring the level of risk to the plants and/or animals (biota) in a certain area using water and habitat quality information. A new technique for developing risk indices was applied to data collected from Mid-Atlantic streams of the U.S. during 1...

Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

2013-08-01

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

Impact of rare earth element added filters on the X-ray beam spectra: a Monte Carlo approach.

PubMed

Eskandarlou, Amir; Jafari, Amir Abbas; Mohammadi, Mohammad; Zehtabian, Mehdi; Faghihi, Reza; Shokri, Abbas; Pourolajal, Jalal

2014-01-01

The effectiveness of added filters including conventional and rare earth materials for dental radiography tasks was investigated using a simulation approach. Current study focuses on the combination of a range of various filters to investigate the reduction of radiation absorbed dose and improving the quality of a radiography image. To simulate the X-ray beam spectrum, a MCNP5 code was applied. Relative intensity, beam quality, and mean energy were investigated for a typical dental radiography machine. The impact of different rare-earth materials with different thicknesses and tube voltages on the X-ray spectrum was investigated. For Aluminum as a conventional filter, the modeled X-ray spectra and HVL values were in a good agreement with those reported by IPEM. The results showed that for a 70 kVp voltage, with an increase of the thickness and atomic number of a given added filters, an increase of HVL values were observed. However, with the increase of the attenuator thickness, X-ray beam intensity decreases. For mean energy, different results were observed. It was also found that rare earth made filters reduce high energy X-ray radiation due to k-edge absorption. This leads to an ideal beam for intra-oral radiography tasks. However, as a disadvantage of rare earth added filters, the reduction of the tube output levels should also be considered.

Protection goals in environmental risk assessment: a practical approach.

PubMed

Garcia-Alonso, Monica; Raybould, Alan

2014-12-01

Policy protection goals are set up in most countries to minimise harm to the environment, humans and animals caused by human activities. Decisions on whether to approve new agricultural products, like pesticides or genetically modified (GM) crops, take into account these policy protection goals. To support decision-making, applications for approval of commercial uses of GM crops usually comprise an environmental risk assessment (ERA). These risk assessments are analytical tools, based on science, that follow a conceptual model that includes a problem formulation step where policy protection goals are considered. However, in most countries, risk assessors face major problems in that policy protection goals set in the legislation are stated in very broad terms and are too ambiguous to be directly applicable in ERAs. This means that risk assessors often have to interpret policy protection goals without clear guidance on what effects would be considered harmful. In this paper we propose a practical approach that may help risk assessors to translate policy protection goals into unambiguous (i.e., operational) protection goals and to establish relevant assessment endpoints and risk hypotheses that can be used in ERAs. Examples are provided to show how this approach can be applied to two areas of environmental concern relevant to the ERAs of GM crops.

Prevention of accidental exposure in radiotherapy: the risk matrix approach.

PubMed

Vilaragut, J J; Duménigo, C; Delgado, J M; Morales, J; McDonnell, J D; Ferro, R; Ortiz López, P; Ramírez, M L; Pérez Mulas, A; Papadopulos, S; Gonçalves, M; López Morones, R; Sánchez Cayuela, C; Cascajo Castresana, A; Somoano, F; Álvarez, C; Guillén, A; Rodríguez, M; Pereira, P P; Nader, A

2013-02-01

Knowledge and lessons from past accidental exposures in radiotherapy are very helpful in finding safety provisions to prevent recurrence. Disseminating lessons is necessary but not sufficient. There may be additional latent risks for other accidental exposures, which have not been reported or have not occurred, but are possible and may occur in the future if not identified, analyzed, and prevented by safety provisions. Proactive methods are available for anticipating and quantifying risk from potential event sequences. In this work, proactive methods, successfully used in industry, have been adapted and used in radiotherapy. Risk matrix is a tool that can be used in individual hospitals to classify event sequences in levels of risk. As with any anticipative method, the risk matrix involves a systematic search for potential risks; that is, any situation that can cause an accidental exposure. The method contributes new insights: The application of the risk matrix approach has identified that another group of less catastrophic but still severe single-patient events may have a higher probability, resulting in higher risk. The use of the risk matrix approach for safety assessment in individual hospitals would provide an opportunity for self-evaluation and managing the safety measures that are most suitable to the hospital's own conditions.

A comprehensive multiomics approach toward understanding the relationship between aging and dementia.

PubMed

Currais, Antonio; Goldberg, Joshua; Farrokhi, Catherine; Chang, Max; Prior, Marguerite; Dargusch, Richard; Daugherty, Daniel; Armando, Aaron; Quehenberger, Oswald; Maher, Pamela; Schubert, David

2015-11-01

Because age is the greatest risk factor for sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD), phenotypic screens based upon old age-associated brain toxicities were used to develop the potent neurotrophic drug J147. Since certain aspects of aging may be primary cause of AD, we hypothesized that J147 would be effective against AD-associated pathology in rapidly aging SAMP8 mice and could be used to identify some of the molecular contributions of aging to AD. An inclusive and integrative multiomics approach was used to investigate protein and gene expression, metabolite levels, and cognition in old and young SAMP8 mice. J147 reduced cognitive deficits in old SAMP8 mice, while restoring multiple molecular markers associated with human AD, vascular pathology, impaired synaptic function, and inflammation to those approaching the young phenotype. The extensive assays used in this study identified a subset of molecular changes associated with aging that may be necessary for the development of AD.

Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk-based approach.

PubMed

Lin, Jeng-Hsiang

2018-04-01

Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

Reducing added sugars in the food supply through a cap-and-trade approach.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Lewis, Kristina

2014-12-01

We estimated the effect of a simulated cap-and-trade policy to reduce added sugar in the food supply. Using nationally representative data on added-sugar content and consumption, we constructed a mathematical model of a cap-and-trade policy and compared its health implications to those of proposals to tax sugar sweetened beverages or added sugars. Capping added-sugar emissions into the food supply by food manufacturers at a rate of 1% per year would be expected to reduce the prevalence of obesity by 1.7 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.9, 2.4; a 4.6% decline) and the incidence of type 2 diabetes by 21.7 cases per 100 000 people (95% CI = 12.9, 30.6; a 4.2% decline) over 20 years, averting approximately $9.7 billion in health care spending. Racial and ethnic minorities would be expected to experience the largest declines. By comparison, equivalent price penalties through excise taxes would be expected to generate smaller health benefits. A cap-and-trade policy to reduce added-sugar intake may reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes to a greater extent than currently-proposed excise taxes.

Risk-Hedged Approach for Re-Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sadovsky, Alexander V.; Bilimoria, Karl D.

2016-01-01

This presentation corresponds to: our paper explores a new risk-hedged approach for re-routing air traffic around forecast convective weather. In this work, flying through a more likely weather instantiation is considered to pose a higher level of risk. Current operational practice strategically plans re-routes to avoid only the most likely (highest risk) weather instantiation, and then tactically makes any necessary adjustments as the weather evolves. The risk-hedged approach strategically plans re-routes by minimizing the risk-adjusted path length, incorporating multiple possible weather instantiations with associated likelihoods (risks). The resulting model is transparent and is readily analyzed for realism and treated with well-understood shortest-path algorithms. Risk-hedged re-routes are computed for some example weather instantiations. The main result is that in some scenarios, relative to an operational-practice proxy solution, the risk-hedged solution provides the benefits of lower risk as well as shorter path length. In other scenarios, the benefits of the risk-hedged solution are ambiguous, because the solution is characterized by a tradeoff between risk and path length. The risk-hedged solution can be executed in those scenarios where it provides a clear benefit over current operational practice.

CSR: Constrained Selfish Routing in Ad-Hoc Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassem, Christine; Bestavros, Azer

Routing protocols for ad-hoc networks assume that the nodes forming the network are either under a single authority, or else that they would be altruistically forwarding data for other nodes with no expectation of a return. These assumptions are unrealistic since in ad-hoc networks, nodes are likely to be autonomous and rational (selfish), and thus unwilling to help unless they have an incentive to do so. Providing such incentives is an important aspect that should be considered when designing ad-hoc routing protocols. In this paper, we propose a dynamic, decentralized routing protocol for ad-hoc networks that provides incentives in the form of payments to intermediate nodes used to forward data for others. In our Constrained Selfish Routing (CSR) protocol, game-theoretic approaches are used to calculate payments (incentives) that ensure both the truthfulness of participating nodes and the fairness of the CSR protocol. We show through simulations that CSR is an energy efficient protocol and that it provides lower communication overhead in the best and average cases compared to existing approaches.

Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

PubMed

Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

2012-09-01

Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Guinea Pig as a Model for Sporadic Alzheimer’s Disease (AD): The Impact of Cholesterol Intake on Expression of AD-Related Genes

PubMed Central

Ong, Daniel; Wijaya, Linda; Laws, Simon M.; Taddei, Kevin; Newman, Morgan; Lardelli, Michael; Martins, Ralph N.; Verdile, Giuseppe

2013-01-01

We investigated the guinea pig, Cavia porcellus, as a model for Alzheimer’s disease (AD), both in terms of the conservation of genes involved in AD and the regulatory responses of these to a known AD risk factor - high cholesterol intake. Unlike rats and mice, guinea pigs possess an Aβ peptide sequence identical to human Aβ. Consistent with the commonality between cardiovascular and AD risk factors in humans, we saw that a high cholesterol diet leads to up-regulation of BACE1 (β-secretase) transcription and down-regulation of ADAM10 (α-secretase) transcription which should increase release of Aβ from APP. Significantly, guinea pigs possess isoforms of AD-related genes found in humans but not present in mice or rats. For example, we discovered that the truncated PS2V isoform of human PSEN2, that is found at raised levels in AD brains and that increases γ-secretase activity and Aβ synthesis, is not uniquely human or aberrant as previously believed. We show that PS2V formation is up-regulated by hypoxia and a high-cholesterol diet while, consistent with observations in humans, Aβ concentrations are raised in some brain regions but not others. Also like humans, but unlike mice, the guinea pig gene encoding tau, MAPT, encodes isoforms with both three and four microtubule binding domains, and cholesterol alters the ratio of these isoforms. We conclude that AD-related genes are highly conserved and more similar to human than the rat or mouse. Guinea pigs represent a superior rodent model for analysis of the impact of dietary factors such as cholesterol on the regulation of AD-related genes. PMID:23805206

Adversarial risk analysis with incomplete information: a level-k approach.

PubMed

Rothschild, Casey; McLay, Laura; Guikema, Seth

2012-07-01

This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level-k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level-k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend-attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Outsourcing in long-term care: a risk management approach].

PubMed

Guimarães, Cristina Machado; Carvalho, José Crespo de

2012-05-01

This article seeks to investigate outsourcing decisions in supply chain management of healthcare organizations, namely the motives and constraints behind the decision, the selection criteria for activities to be outsourced to third parties, the type of possible agreements, and the impact of this decision on the organization per se. A case study of the start-up phase of a Long-term Care unit with an innovative approach and high levels of customization was conducted to understand the outsourcing process in a start-up context (not in the standard context of organizational change) and a risk evaluation matrix was created for outsourcing activities in order to define and implement a performance monitoring process. This study seeks to understand how to evaluate and assess the risks of an outsourcing strategy and proposes a monitoring model using risk management tools. It was shown that the risk management approach can be a solution for monitoring outsourcing in the organizational start-up phase. Conclusions concerning dissatisfaction with the results of outsourcing strategies adopted are also presented.

Are restrictive guidelines for added sugars science based?

PubMed

Erickson, Jennifer; Slavin, Joanne

2015-12-12

Added sugar regulations and recommendations have been proposed by policy makers around the world. With no universal definition, limited access to added sugar values in food products and no analytical difference from intrinsic sugars, added sugar recommendations present a unique challenge. Average added sugar intake by American adults is approximately 13% of total energy intake, and recommendations have been made as low 5% of total energy intake. In addition to public health recommendations, the Food and Drug Administration has proposed the inclusion of added sugar data to the Nutrition and Supplemental Facts Panel. The adoption of such regulations would have implications for both consumers as well as the food industry. There are certainly advantages to including added sugar data to the Nutrition Facts Panel; however, consumer research does not consistently show the addition of this information to improve consumer knowledge. With excess calorie consumption resulting in weight gain and increased risk of obesity and obesity related co-morbidities, added sugar consumption should be minimized. However, there is currently no evidence stating that added sugar is more harmful than excess calories from any other food source. The addition of restrictive added sugar recommendations may not be the most effective intervention in the treatment and prevention of obesity and other health concerns.

Reducing Added Sugars in the Food Supply Through a Cap-and-Trade Approach

PubMed Central

Lewis, Kristina

2014-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the effect of a simulated cap-and-trade policy to reduce added sugar in the food supply. Methods. Using nationally representative data on added-sugar content and consumption, we constructed a mathematical model of a cap-and-trade policy and compared its health implications to those of proposals to tax sugar sweetened beverages or added sugars. Results. Capping added-sugar emissions into the food supply by food manufacturers at a rate of 1% per year would be expected to reduce the prevalence of obesity by 1.7 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.9, 2.4; a 4.6% decline) and the incidence of type 2 diabetes by 21.7 cases per 100 000 people (95% CI = 12.9, 30.6; a 4.2% decline) over 20 years, averting approximately $9.7 billion in health care spending. Racial and ethnic minorities would be expected to experience the largest declines. By comparison, equivalent price penalties through excise taxes would be expected to generate smaller health benefits. Conclusions. A cap-and-trade policy to reduce added-sugar intake may reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes to a greater extent than currently-proposed excise taxes. PMID:25365146

Sun Protection; A risk management approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffey, Brian

2017-10-01

Sun Protection differentiates itself from other texts by adopting a risk-management approach to determine whether, how, and in what circumstances, harm might be caused, and to explore the feasibility of various strategies in controlling exposure to solar UV radiation. This multi-disciplinary book covers topics from climatology through human exposure to sunlight, as well as biological and clinical effects of UV radiation to physical and chemical strategies for photoprotection.

Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

2014-05-01

The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

The role of Ad-36 as a risk factor in males with gynecomastia.

PubMed

Kocazeybek, Bekir; Saribas, Suat; Ergin, Sevgi

2015-12-01

Gynecomastia is highly prevalent worldwide and Adenovirus-36 (Ad-36), recently implicated in increased adipose tissue deposition due to its affinity for adipose tissue, is a potential etiological agent in the development of obesity and therefore we hypothesized that Ad-36 may also play a role in the development of gynecomastia by possibly accompanying increased regional adiposity. To support our hypothesis, we conducted a study that included 33 adult males with gynecomastia (PG) and 15 adult males as the patient control group (HCG). Leptin and adiponectin levels were monitored using ELISA. A significant difference in Ad-36 antibody positivity was found between the groups (p<0.05). Average leptin levels were found to be higher, but average adiponectin levels were found to be lower in Ad-36 Ab(+) patient group. No Ad-36 DNA was detected in any tissue samples. In conclusion, we hypothesize that low-grade chronic inflammation, which was caused by Ad-36 infection, possibly caused an increase in circulating leptin. This in turn may have caused an increase in local or circulating estrogens and/or the estrogen/androgen ratio by stimulating the aromatase enzyme activity in adipose stromal cells and breast tissues. We suggest that gynecomastia may develop following an increase in aromatase enzyme activity, by which more oestrogen is produced and the estrogen-androgen balance disrupted. Also, regional adipose tissue enlargements may cause the excessive production of estrogens leading to gynecomastia. Adipose tissue has been recognized as a major endocrine organ in recent years. Another plausible explanation is excessive aromatization of androgens to estrogens by peripheral adipose tissue may promote gynecomastia in males. Moreover, our results suggest that there might be a relationship between Ad-36 and gynecomastia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

APPROACHES FOR INCORPORATING NON-CHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past twenty years, the risk assessment paradigm has gradually shifted from an individual chemical approach to a community-based model. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is consideration of the totality of stressors affecting a defined population including both ...

Proactive Approaches to Improving Outcomes for At-Risk Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freeman, G.; Gum, M.; Blackbourn, J. M.

This paper outlines two approaches for improving outcomes for students at risk for academic failure. Both take a systemic approach to the problem by focusing on how specific circumstances create a reality of failure for many students. One school analyzed factors related to retention/promotion decisions and determined that four factors directly…

SAO/NASA ADS at SAO: ADS Browse Service

Science.gov Websites

Sign on [SAO/NASA ADS] ADS Browse Service ADS Home | HELP | Sitemap ADS Services Search Browse myADS Mirrors Feedback FAQ What's new Site Map Help Other NASA Centers CXC HEASARC IRSA MAST NED NSSDC -Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics [ Smithsonian logo ] The NASA Astrophysics Data System provides different

Sex modifies the APOE-related risk of developing Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Altmann, Andre; Tian, Lu; Henderson, Victor W; Greicius, Michael D

2014-04-01

The APOE4 allele is the strongest genetic risk factor for sporadic Alzheimer disease (AD). Case-control studies suggest the APOE4 link to AD is stronger in women. We examined the APOE4-by-sex interaction in conversion risk (from healthy aging to mild cognitive impairment (MCI)/AD or from MCI to AD) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker levels. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for an APOE-by-sex interaction on conversion in controls (n = 5,496) and MCI patients (n = 2,588). The interaction was also tested in CSF biomarker levels of 980 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Among controls, male and female carriers were more likely to convert to MCI/AD, but the effect was stronger in women (HR = 1.81 for women; HR = 1.27 for men; interaction: p = 0.011). The interaction remained significant in a predefined subanalysis restricted to APOE3/3 and APOE3/4 genotypes. Among MCI patients, both male and female APOE4 carriers were more likely to convert to AD (HR = 2.16 for women; HR = 1.64 for men); the interaction was not significant (p = 0.14). In the subanalysis restricted to APOE3/3 and APOE3/4 genotypes, the interaction was significant (p = 0.02; HR = 2.17 for women; HR = 1.51 for men). The APOE4-by-sex interaction on biomarker levels was significant for MCI patients for total tau and the tau-to-Aβ ratio (p = 0.009 and p = 0.02, respectively; more AD-like in women). APOE4 confers greater AD risk in women. Biomarker results suggest that increased APOE-related risk in women may be associated with tau pathology. These findings have important clinical implications and suggest novel research approaches into AD pathogenesis. © 2014 American Neurological Association.

Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score to Improve Risk Prediction for Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Chouraki, Vincent; Reitz, Christiane; Maury, Fleur; Bis, Joshua C; Bellenguez, Celine; Yu, Lei; Jakobsdottir, Johanna; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Adams, Hieab H; Choi, Seung Hoan; Larson, Eric B; Fitzpatrick, Annette; Uitterlinden, Andre G; de Jager, Philip L; Hofman, Albert; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Vardarajan, Badri; Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla; van der Lee, Sven J; Lopez, Oscar; Dartigues, Jean-François; Berr, Claudine; Amouyel, Philippe; Bennett, David A; van Duijn, Cornelia; DeStefano, Anita L; Launer, Lenore J; Ikram, M Arfan; Crane, Paul K; Lambert, Jean-Charles; Mayeux, Richard; Seshadri, Sudha

2016-06-18

Effective prevention of Alzheimer's disease (AD) requires the development of risk prediction tools permitting preclinical intervention. We constructed a genetic risk score (GRS) comprising common genetic variants associated with AD, evaluated its association with incident AD and assessed its capacity to improve risk prediction over traditional models based on age, sex, education, and APOEɛ4. In eight prospective cohorts included in the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP), we derived weighted sum of risk alleles from the 19 top SNPs reported by the IGAP GWAS in participants aged 65 and older without prevalent dementia. Hazard ratios (HR) of incident AD were estimated in Cox models. Improvement in risk prediction was measured by the difference in C-index (Δ-C), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI>0). Overall, 19,687 participants at risk were included, of whom 2,782 developed AD. The GRS was associated with a 17% increase in AD risk (pooled HR = 1.17; 95% CI =   [1.13-1.21] per standard deviation increase in GRS; p-value =  2.86×10-16). This association was stronger among persons with at least one APOEɛ4 allele (HRGRS = 1.24; 95% CI =   [1.15-1.34]) than in others (HRGRS = 1.13; 95% CI =   [1.08-1.18]; pinteraction = 3.45×10-2). Risk prediction after seven years of follow-up showed a small improvement when adding the GRS to age, sex, APOEɛ4, and education (Δ-Cindex =  0.0043 [0.0019-0.0067]). Similar patterns were observed for IDI and NRI>0. In conclusion, a risk score incorporating common genetic variation outside the APOEɛ4 locus improved AD risk prediction and may facilitate risk stratification for prevention trials.

A comparative analysis of two contrasting European approaches for rewarding the value added by drugs for cancer: England versus France.

PubMed

Drummond, Michael; de Pouvourville, Gerard; Jones, Elizabeth; Haig, Jennifer; Saba, Grece; Cawston, Hélène

2014-05-01

Within Europe, contrasting approaches have emerged for rewarding the value added by new drugs. In Ireland, The Netherlands, Sweden and the UK, the price of, and access to, a new drug has to be justified by the health gain it delivers compared with current therapy, typically expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. By contrast, in France and Germany, the assessment of added benefit is expressed on an ordinal scale, based on an assessment of the clinical outcomes as compared with existing care. This assessment then influences price negotiations. The objective of this paper is to assess the pros and cons of each approach, both in terms of the assessments they produce and the efficiency and practical feasibility of the process. We reviewed the technology appraisals performed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) relating to 49 anticancer drug decisions in the UK from September 2003 to January 2012. Estimates of the QALYs gained and incremental cost per QALY gained were then compared with the assessments of the Amélioration du Service Médical Rendu (ASMR) made by the Haute Autorité de Santé (HAS) in France for the same drugs in the same clinical indications. We also undertook a qualitative assessment of the two approaches, considering the resources required, timeliness, transparency, stakeholder engagement, and political acceptability. In the UK, the estimates of QALYs gained ranged from 0.003 to 1.46 and estimates of incremental cost per QALY from £3,320 to £458,000. The estimate of cost per QALY gained was a good predictor of the level of restriction imposed on the use of the drug concerned. Patient access schemes, which normally imply price reductions, were proposed in 45 % of cases. In France, the distribution of ASMRs was I, 12 %; II, 18 %; III, 24 %; IV, 18 %; V, 22 %; and uncategorized/non-reimbursed, 4 %. Since ASMRs of IV and above signify minor or no improvement over existing therapy, these ratings imply that, in

Tensionless string spectra on AdS3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaberdiel, Matthias R.; Gopakumar, Rajesh

2018-05-01

The spectrum of superstrings on AdS3 × S3 × M 4 with pure NS-NS flux is analysed for the background where the radius of the AdS space takes the minimal value ( k = 1). Both for M 4 = S3 × S1 and M 4 = T 4 we show that there is a special set of physical states, coming from the bottom of the spectrally flowed continuous representations, which agree in precise detail with the single particle spectrum of a free symmetric product orbifold. For the case of AdS3 × S3 × T 4 this relies on making sense of the world-sheet theory at k = 1, for which we make a concrete proposal. We also comment on the implications of this striking result.

[DIFFERENT APPROACHES FOR CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN LABORATORIES].

PubMed

Caporossi, Lidia; Papaleo, Bruno; Capanna, Silvia; Calicchia, Sara; Marcellini, Laura; De Rosa, Mariangela; Castellano, Paola

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare the different approaches used for chemical risk assessment, in relation to the perception of riskfor operators, in some research laboratories of a hospital in Rome. All information regarding the chemicals used for the application of three algorithmic models for chemical risk assessment ("Movarisch", "Inforisk", "Archimede") were collected. An environmental and biological monitoring and a study on the combined exposure to multiple chemicals using the World Health Organization proposed steps were carried out. A questionnaire was prepared for the identification of risk perception. An estimation of chemical risk with algorithms was compared with data from monitoring: findings showed that estimated risk was higher than those identified with airborne or urine concentrations, always under their limit values. The study of multiple exposure showed a possible cumulative risk, in some cases, but the conditions of use (volume and time) often bring to a reduced one. The perception of risk attributed to the monitored hazardous substances showed a correct perception in all laboratories and for all workers, with regard to the substances manipulated.

Associations between Potentially Modifiable Risk Factors and Alzheimer Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

PubMed

Østergaard, Søren D; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Sharp, Stephen J; Proitsi, Petroula; Lotta, Luca A; Day, Felix; Perry, John R B; Boehme, Kevin L; Walter, Stefan; Kauwe, John S; Gibbons, Laura E; Larson, Eric B; Powell, John F; Langenberg, Claudia; Crane, Paul K; Wareham, Nicholas J; Scott, Robert A

2015-06-01

Potentially modifiable risk factors including obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking are associated with Alzheimer disease (AD) and represent promising targets for intervention. However, the causality of these associations is unclear. We sought to assess the causal nature of these associations using Mendelian randomization (MR). We used SNPs associated with each risk factor as instrumental variables in MR analyses. We considered type 2 diabetes (T2D, NSNPs = 49), fasting glucose (NSNPs = 36), insulin resistance (NSNPs = 10), body mass index (BMI, NSNPs = 32), total cholesterol (NSNPs = 73), HDL-cholesterol (NSNPs = 71), LDL-cholesterol (NSNPs = 57), triglycerides (NSNPs = 39), systolic blood pressure (SBP, NSNPs = 24), smoking initiation (NSNPs = 1), smoking quantity (NSNPs = 3), university completion (NSNPs = 2), and years of education (NSNPs = 1). We calculated MR estimates of associations between each exposure and AD risk using an inverse-variance weighted approach, with summary statistics of SNP-AD associations from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project, comprising a total of 17,008 individuals with AD and 37,154 cognitively normal elderly controls. We found that genetically predicted higher SBP was associated with lower AD risk (odds ratio [OR] per standard deviation [15.4 mm Hg] of SBP [95% CI]: 0.75 [0.62-0.91]; p = 3.4 × 10(-3)). Genetically predicted higher SBP was also associated with a higher probability of taking antihypertensive medication (p = 6.7 × 10(-8)). Genetically predicted smoking quantity was associated with lower AD risk (OR per ten cigarettes per day [95% CI]: 0.67 [0.51-0.89]; p = 6.5 × 10(-3)), although we were unable to stratify by smoking history; genetically predicted smoking initiation was not associated with AD risk (OR = 0.70 [0.37, 1.33]; p = 0.28). We saw no evidence of causal associations between glycemic traits, T2D, BMI, or educational attainment and risk of AD (all p > 0.1). Potential limitations of this

NASA's human system risk management approach and its applicability to commercial spaceflight.

PubMed

Law, Jennifer; Mathers, Charles H; Fondy, Susan R E; Vanderploeg, James M; Kerstman, Eric L

2013-01-01

As planning continues for commercial spaceflight, attention is turned to NASA to assess whether its human system risk management approach can be applied to mitigate the risks associated with commercial suborbital and orbital flights. NASA uses a variety of methods to assess the risks to the human system based on their likelihood and consequences. In this article, we review these methods and categorize the risks in the system as "definite," "possible," or "least" concern for commercial spaceflight. As with career astronauts, these risks will be primarily mitigated by screening and environmental control. Despite its focus on long-duration exploration missions, NASA's human system risk management approach can serve as a preliminary knowledge base to help medical planners prepare for commercial spaceflights.

Risk Financing for Schools: The Capital Markets Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rudolph, Richard G.

1988-01-01

The capital markets approach is an alternative means of risk financing whereby a school system establishes and controls its own insurance company and makes systematic contributions to pay for expected and anticipated losses and their associated costs. (MLF)

Assessment of the Genetic Architecture of Alzheimer's Disease Risk in Rate of Memory Decline.

PubMed

Del-Aguila, Jorge L; Fernández, Maria Victoria; Schindler, Suzanne; Ibanez, Laura; Deming, Yuetiva; Ma, Shengmei; Saef, Ben; Black, Kathleen; Budde, John; Norton, Joanne; Chasse, Rachel; Harari, Oscar; Goate, Alison; Xiong, Chengjie; Morris, John C; Cruchaga, Carlos

2018-01-01

Many genetic studies for Alzheimer's disease (AD) have been focused on the identification of common genetic variants associated with AD risk and not on other aspects of the disease, such as age at onset or rate of dementia progression. There are multiple approaches to untangling the genetic architecture of these phenotypes. We hypothesized that the genetic architecture of rate of progression is different than the risk for developing AD dementia. To test this hypothesis, we used longitudinal clinical data from ADNI and the Knight-ADRC at Washington University, and we calculated PRS (polygenic risk score) based on the IGAP study to compare the genetic architecture of AD risk and dementia progression. Dementia progression was measured by the change of Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR)-SB per year. Out of the 21 loci for AD risk, no association with the rate of dementia progression was found. The PRS rate was significantly associated with the rate of dementia progression (β= 0.146, p = 0.03). In the case of rare variants, TREM2 (β= 0.309, p = 0.02) was also associated with the rate of dementia progression. TREM2 variant carriers showed a 23% faster rate of dementia compared with non-variant carriers. In conclusion, our results indicate that the recently identified common and rare variants for AD susceptibility have a limited impact on the rate of dementia progression in AD patients.

Quantum load balancing in ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasanpour, M.; Shariat, S.; Barnaghi, P.; Hoseinitabatabaei, S. A.; Vahid, S.; Tafazolli, R.

2017-06-01

This paper presents a novel approach in targeting load balancing in ad hoc networks utilizing the properties of quantum game theory. This approach benefits from the instantaneous and information-less capability of entangled particles to synchronize the load balancing strategies in ad hoc networks. The quantum load balancing (QLB) algorithm proposed by this work is implemented on top of OLSR as the baseline routing protocol; its performance is analyzed against the baseline OLSR, and considerable gain is reported regarding some of the main QoS metrics such as delay and jitter. Furthermore, it is shown that QLB algorithm supports a solid stability gain in terms of throughput which stands a proof of concept for the load balancing properties of the proposed theory.

On The Value at Risk Using Bayesian Mixture Laplace Autoregressive Approach for Modelling the Islamic Stock Risk Investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miftahurrohmah, Brina; Iriawan, Nur; Fithriasari, Kartika

2017-06-01

Stocks are known as the financial instruments traded in the capital market which have a high level of risk. Their risks are indicated by their uncertainty of their return which have to be accepted by investors in the future. The higher the risk to be faced, the higher the return would be gained. Therefore, the measurements need to be made against the risk. Value at Risk (VaR) as the most popular risk measurement method, is frequently ignore when the pattern of return is not uni-modal Normal. The calculation of the risks using VaR method with the Normal Mixture Autoregressive (MNAR) approach has been considered. This paper proposes VaR method couple with the Mixture Laplace Autoregressive (MLAR) that would be implemented for analysing the first three biggest capitalization Islamic stock return in JII, namely PT. Astra International Tbk (ASII), PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLMK), and PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR). Parameter estimation is performed by employing Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches.

Enhanced Weight based DSR for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Samant; Jain, Sweta

2011-12-01

Routing in ad hoc network is a great problematic, since a good routing protocol must ensure fast and efficient packet forwarding, which isn't evident in ad hoc networks. In literature there exists lot of routing protocols however they don't include all the aspects of ad hoc networks as mobility, device and medium constraints which make these protocols not efficient for some configuration and categories of ad hoc networks. Thus in this paper we propose an improvement of Weight Based DSR in order to include some of the aspects of ad hoc networks as stability, remaining battery power, load and trust factor and proposing a new approach Enhanced Weight Based DSR.

Using a Value-Added Approach to Assess the Sociology Major

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pedersen, Daphne E.; White, Frank

2011-01-01

Universities across the nation have been called upon to provide evidence of student learning through direct means of assessment. Value-added assessment, which aims to document the development of student learning from the beginning of the university experience to the end, has been called "accountability's new frontier" by the American…

76 FR 65165 - Importation of Plants for Planting; Risk-Based Sampling and Inspection Approach and Propagative...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-20

...] Importation of Plants for Planting; Risk-Based Sampling and Inspection Approach and Propagative Monitoring and... advising the public of our decision to implement a risk-based sampling approach for the inspection of... risk-based sampling and inspection approach will allow us to target high-risk plants for planting for...

Non-animal approaches for consumer safety risk assessments: Unilever's scientific research programme.

PubMed

Carmichael, Paul; Davies, Michael; Dent, Matt; Fentem, Julia; Fletcher, Samantha; Gilmour, Nicola; MacKay, Cameron; Maxwell, Gavin; Merolla, Leona; Pease, Camilla; Reynolds, Fiona; Westmoreland, Carl

2009-12-01

Non-animal based approaches to risk assessment are now routinely used for assuring consumer safety for some endpoints (such as skin irritation) following considerable investment in developing and applying new methods over the past 20 years. Unilever's research programme into non-animal approaches for safety assessment is currently focused on the application of new technologies to risk assessments in the areas of skin allergy, cancer and general toxicity (including inhalation toxicity). In all of these areas, a long-term investment is essential to increase the scientific understanding of the underlying biological and chemical processes that we believe will ultimately form a sound basis for novel risk assessment approaches. Our research programme in these priority areas consists of in-house research as well as Unilever-sponsored academic research, involvement with EU-funded projects (e.g. Sens-it-iv, carcinoGENOMICS), participation in cross-industry collaborative research (e.g. COLIPA, EPAA) and ongoing involvement with other scientific initiatives on non-animal approaches to risk assessment (e.g. UK NC3Rs, US 'Human Toxicology Project' consortium). 2009 FRAME.

A peptidomic approach to study the contribution of added casein proteins to the peptide profile in Spanish dry-fermented sausages.

PubMed

Mora, Leticia; Escudero, Elizabeth; Aristoy, M-Concepción; Toldrá, Fidel

2015-11-06

Peptidomics is a necessary alternative in the analysis of naturally generated peptides in dry-fermented processing. The intense proteolysis occurred during the processing of dry-fermented sausages is due to the action of endopeptidases and exopeptidases from both, endogenous muscle origin and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) added in the starter. Sodium caseinate is frequently used as an additive in this type of products because of its emulsifying properties, and consequently influences the protein profile available during the proteolysis. In this study, a mass spectrometry approach has been used to determine the impact of added sodium caseinate in the final peptide profile as well as to analyse its possible influence in the presence of certain previously described casein-derived bioactive peptides. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Random Time Identity Based Firewall In Mobile Ad hoc Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suman, Patel, R. B.; Singh, Parvinder

2010-11-01

A mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is a self-organizing network of mobile routers and associated hosts connected by wireless links. MANETs are highly flexible and adaptable but at the same time are highly prone to security risks due to the open medium, dynamically changing network topology, cooperative algorithms, and lack of centralized control. Firewall is an effective means of protecting a local network from network-based security threats and forms a key component in MANET security architecture. This paper presents a review of firewall implementation techniques in MANETs and their relative merits and demerits. A new approach is proposed to select MANET nodes at random for firewall implementation. This approach randomly select a new node as firewall after fixed time and based on critical value of certain parameters like power backup. This approach effectively balances power and resource utilization of entire MANET because responsibility of implementing firewall is equally shared among all the nodes. At the same time it ensures improved security for MANETs from outside attacks as intruder will not be able to find out the entry point in MANET due to the random selection of nodes for firewall implementation.

Risk for self-reported anorexia or bulimia nervosa based on drive for thinness and negative affect clusters/dimensions during adolescence: A three-year prospective study of the TChAD cohort.

PubMed

Peñas-Lledó, Eva; Bulik, Cynthia M; Lichtenstein, Paul; Larsson, Henrik; Baker, Jessica H

2015-09-01

This study explored the cross-sectional and predictive effect of drive for thinness and/or negative affect scores on the development of self-reported anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). K-means were used to cluster the Eating Disorder Inventory-Drive for Thinness (DT) and Child Behavior Checklist Anxious/Depressed (A/D) scores from 615 unrelated female twins at age 16-17. Logistic regressions were used to assess the effect of these clusters on self-reported eating disorder diagnosis at ages 16-17 (n = 565) and 19-20 (n = 451). DT and A/D scores were grouped into four clusters: Mild (scores lower than 90th percentile on both scales), DT (higher scores only on DT), A/D (higher scores only on A/D), and DT-A/D (higher scores on both the DT and A/D scales). DT and DT-A/D clusters at age 16-17 were associated cross-sectionally with AN and both cross-sectionally and longitudinally with BN. The DT-A/D cluster had the highest prevalence of AN at follow-up compared with all other clusters. Similarly, an interaction was observed between DT and A/D that predicted risk for AN. Having elevated DT and A/D scores may increase risk for eating disorder symptomatology above and beyond a high score on either alone. Findings suggest that cluster modeling based on DT and A/D may be useful to inform novel and useful intervention strategies for AN and BN in adolescents. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk for self-reported anorexia or bulimia nervosa based on drive for thinness and negative affect clusters/dimensions during adolescence: A three-year prospective study of the TChAD cohort

PubMed Central

Peñas-Lledó, Eva; Bulik, Cynthia M.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Larsson, Henrik; Baker, Jessica H.

2015-01-01

Objective The present study explored the cross-sectional and predictive effect of drive for thinness and/or negative affect scores on the development of self-reported anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). Method K-means were used to cluster the Eating Disorder Inventory-Drive for Thinness (DT) and Child Behavior Checklist Anxious/Depressed (A/D) scores from 615 unrelated female twins at age 16–17. Logistic regressions were used to assess the effect of these clusters on self-reported eating disorder diagnosis at ages 16–17 (n=565) and 19–20 (n=451). Results DT and A/D scores were grouped into four clusters: Mild (scores lower than 90th percentile on both scales), DT (higher scores only on DT), A/D (higher scores only on A/D), and DT-A/D (higher scores on both the DT and A/D scales). DT and DT-A/D clusters at age 16–17 were associated cross-sectionally with AN and both cross-sectionally and longitudinally with BN. The DT-A/D cluster had the highest prevalence of AN at follow-up compared with all other clusters. Similarly, an interaction was observed between DT and A/D that predicted risk for AN. Discussion Having elevated DT and A/D scores may increase risk for eating disorder symptomatology above and beyond a high score on either alone. Findings suggest that cluster modeling based on DT and A/D may be useful to inform novel and useful intervention strategies for AN and BN in adolescents. PMID:26013185

Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P.; Morgan, M.G.

Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs aboutmore » the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.« less

AdS7/CFT6 with orientifolds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apruzzi, Fabio; Fazzi, Marco

2018-01-01

AdS7 solutions of massive type IIA have been classified, and are dual to a large class of six-dimensional (1, 0) SCFT's whose tensor branch deformations are described by linear quivers of SU groups. Quivers and AdS vacua depend solely on the group theory data of the NS5-D6-D8 brane configurations engineering the field theories. This has allowed for a direct holographic match of their a conformal anomaly. In this paper we extend the match to cases where O6 and O8-planes are present, thereby introducing SO and USp groups in the quivers. In all of them we show that the a anomaly computed in supergravity agrees with the holographic limit of the exact field theory result, which we extract from the anomaly polynomial. As a byproduct we construct special AdS7 vacua dual to nonperturbative F-theory configurations. Finally, we propose a holographic a-theorem for six-dimensional Higgs branch RG flows.

Regulatory risk assessment approaches for synthetic mineral fibres.

PubMed

Harrison, Paul; Holmes, Philip; Bevan, Ruth; Kamps, Klaus; Levy, Leonard; Greim, Helmut

2015-10-01

Exposure to synthetic mineral fibres (SMF) may occur in a number of workplace scenarios. To protect worker health, a number of different organisations worldwide have assessed the health risk of these materials and established workplace exposure limits. This paper outlines the basic principles of risk assessment and the scientific methods used to derive valid (justifiable) occupational exposure limits (OELs) and goes on to show how, for SMF, and particularly for refractory ceramic fibre (otherwise known as aluminosilicate wool, RCF/ASW), the methods used and the associated outcomes differ widely. It is argued that the resulting differences in established OELs prevent consistent and appropriate risk management of SMF worldwide, and that development of a transparent and harmonised approach to fibre risk assessment and limit-setting is required. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Value-Added Results for Public Virtual Schools in California

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ford, Richard; Rice, Kerry

2015-01-01

The objective of this paper is to present value-added calculation methods that were applied to determine whether online schools performed at the same or different levels relative to standardized testing. This study includes information on how we approached our value added model development and the results for 32 online public high schools in…

New Features in ADS Labs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Accomazzi, Alberto; Kurtz, M. J.; Henneken, E. A.; Grant, C. S.; Thompson, D.; Di Milia, G.; Luker, J.; Murray, S. S.

2013-01-01

The NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS) has been working hard on updating its services and interfaces to better support our community's research needs. ADS Labs is a new interface built on the old tried-and-true ADS Abstract Databases, so all of ADS's content is available through it. In this presentation we highlight the new features that have been developed in ADS Labs over the last year: new recommendations, metrics, a citation tool and enhanced fulltext search. ADS Labs has long been providing article-level recommendations based on keyword similarity, co-readership and co-citation analysis of its corpus. We have now introduced personal recommendations, which provide a list of articles to be considered based on a individual user's readership history. A new metrics interface provides a summary of the basic impact indicators for a list of records. These include the total and normalized number of papers, citations, reads, and downloads. Also included are some of the popular indices such as the h, g and i10 index. The citation helper tool allows one to submit a set of records and obtain a list of top 10 papers which cite and/or are cited by papers in the original list (but which are not in it). The process closely resembles the network approach of establishing "friends of friends" via an analysis of the citation network. The full-text search service now covers more than 2.5 million documents, including all the major astronomy journals, as well as physics journals published by Springer, Elsevier, the American Physical Society, the American Geophysical Union, and all of the arXiv eprints. The full-text search interface interface allows users and librarians to dig deep and find words or phrases in the body of the indexed articles. ADS Labs is available at http://adslabs.org

Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.; Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249030

2013-07-01

The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materialsmore » circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.« less

Flood risks in urbanized areas - multi-sensoral approaches using remotely sensed data for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taubenböck, H.; Wurm, M.; Netzband, M.; Zwenzner, H.; Roth, A.; Rahman, A.; Dech, S.

2011-02-01

Estimating flood risks and managing disasters combines knowledge in climatology, meteorology, hydrology, hydraulic engineering, statistics, planning and geography - thus a complex multi-faceted problem. This study focuses on the capabilities of multi-source remote sensing data to support decision-making before, during and after a flood event. With our focus on urbanized areas, sample methods and applications show multi-scale products from the hazard and vulnerability perspective of the risk framework. From the hazard side, we present capabilities with which to assess flood-prone areas before an expected disaster. Then we map the spatial impact during or after a flood and finally, we analyze damage grades after a flood disaster. From the vulnerability side, we monitor urbanization over time on an urban footprint level, classify urban structures on an individual building level, assess building stability and quantify probably affected people. The results show a large database for sustainable development and for developing mitigation strategies, ad-hoc coordination of relief measures and organizing rehabilitation.

Two Virasoro symmetries in stringy warped AdS 3

DOE PAGES

Compere, Geoffrey; Guica, Monica; Rodriguez, Maria J.

2014-12-02

We study three-dimensional consistent truncations of type IIB supergravity which admit warped AdS 3 solutions. These theories contain subsectors that have no bulk dynamics. We show that the symplectic form for these theories, when restricted to the non-dynamical subsectors, equals the symplectic form for pure Einstein gravity in AdS 3. Consequently, for each consistent choice of boundary conditions in AdS 3, we can define a consistent phase space in warped AdS 3 with identical conserved charges. This way, we easily obtain a Virasoro × Virasoro asymptotic symmetry algebra in warped AdS 3; two different types of Virasoro × Kač-Moody symmetriesmore » are also consistent alternatives. Next, we study the phase space of these theories when propagating modes are included. We show that, as long as one can define a conserved symplectic form without introducing instabilities, the Virasoro × Virasoro asymptotic symmetries can be extended to the entire (linearised) phase space. In conclusion, this implies that, at least at semi-classical level, consistent theories of gravity in warped AdS 3 are described by a two-dimensional conformal field theory, as long as stability is not an issue.« less

Two Virasoro symmetries in stringy warped AdS 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Compere, Geoffrey; Guica, Monica; Rodriguez, Maria J.

We study three-dimensional consistent truncations of type IIB supergravity which admit warped AdS 3 solutions. These theories contain subsectors that have no bulk dynamics. We show that the symplectic form for these theories, when restricted to the non-dynamical subsectors, equals the symplectic form for pure Einstein gravity in AdS 3. Consequently, for each consistent choice of boundary conditions in AdS 3, we can define a consistent phase space in warped AdS 3 with identical conserved charges. This way, we easily obtain a Virasoro × Virasoro asymptotic symmetry algebra in warped AdS 3; two different types of Virasoro × Kač-Moody symmetriesmore » are also consistent alternatives. Next, we study the phase space of these theories when propagating modes are included. We show that, as long as one can define a conserved symplectic form without introducing instabilities, the Virasoro × Virasoro asymptotic symmetries can be extended to the entire (linearised) phase space. In conclusion, this implies that, at least at semi-classical level, consistent theories of gravity in warped AdS 3 are described by a two-dimensional conformal field theory, as long as stability is not an issue.« less

The ECETOC approach to targeted risk assessment; lessons and experiences relevant to REACH.

PubMed

Money, Chris D; Jacobi, Sylvia; Penman, Mike G; Rodriguez, Carlos; De Rooij, Christ; Veenstra, Gauke

2007-12-01

ECETOC has been developed an approach by which the health and environmental risks arising from the supply and use of chemicals can be quickly and reliably evaluated by chemical suppliers. The approach has been available as a web-based tool since 2004. During the development and implementation of the approach, ECETOC has consulted widely so that the approach is seen to meet the required levels of science while also meeting the differing needs of affected stakeholders. The consultation process has yielded a number of findings in terms of the considerations necessary for implementing successful risk-informed decision-making in a multi-stakeholder environment. Concurrently, as the European Commission's REACH legislative package has begun to take shape, it has also become apparent that the approach has a number of potential applications for aiding the process of risk assessment under REACH. This paper reviews these experiences within the broader context of the expectations that REACH places on chemical manufacturers and suppliers. In particular, it highlights the key role that REACH Exposure Scenarios have for evaluating, managing and communicating chemical risks.

AdS/QCD and Applications of Light-Front Holography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brodsky, Stanley J.; /SLAC /Southern Denmark U., CP3-Origins; Cao, Fu-Guang

2012-02-16

Light-Front Holography leads to a rigorous connection between hadronic amplitudes in a higher dimensional anti-de Sitter (AdS) space and frame-independent light-front wavefunctions of hadrons in 3 + 1 physical space-time, thus providing a compelling physical interpretation of the AdS/CFT correspondence principle and AdS/QCD, a useful framework which describes the correspondence between theories in a modified AdS5 background and confining field theories in physical space-time. To a first semiclassical approximation, where quantum loops and quark masses are not included, this approach leads to a single-variable light-front Schroedinger equation which determines the eigenspectrum and the light-front wavefunctions of hadrons for general spinmore » and orbital angular momentum. The coordinate z in AdS space is uniquely identified with a Lorentz-invariant coordinate {zeta} which measures the separation of the constituents within a hadron at equal light-front time. The internal structure of hadrons is explicitly introduced and the angular momentum of the constituents plays a key role. We give an overview of the light-front holographic approach to strongly coupled QCD. In particular, we study the photon-to-meson transition form factors (TFFs) F{sub M{gamma}}(Q{sup 2}) for {gamma}{gamma}* {yields} M using light-front holographic methods. The results for the TFFs for the {eta} and {eta}' mesons are also presented. Some novel features of QCD are discussed, including the consequences of confinement for quark and gluon condensates. A method for computing the hadronization of quark and gluon jets at the amplitude level is outlined.« less

A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

2017-08-01

Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

A performance-based approach to landslide risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romeo, R. W.

2009-04-01

An approach for the risk assessment based on a probabilistic analysis of the performance of structures threatened by landslides is shown and discussed. The risk is a possible loss due to the occurrence of a potentially damaging event. Analytically the risk is the probability convolution of hazard, which defines the frequency of occurrence of the event (i.e., the demand), and fragility that defines the capacity of the system to withstand the event given its characteristics (i.e., severity) and those of the exposed goods (vulnerability), that is: Risk=p(D>=d|S,V) The inequality sets a damage (or loss) threshold beyond which the system's performance is no longer met. Therefore a consistent approach to risk assessment should: 1) adopt a probabilistic model which takes into account all the uncertainties of the involved variables (capacity and demand), 2) follow a performance approach based on given loss or damage thresholds. The proposed method belongs to the category of the semi-empirical ones: the theoretical component is given by the probabilistic capacity-demand model; the empirical component is given by the observed statistical behaviour of structures damaged by landslides. Two landslide properties alone are required: the area-extent and the type (or kinematism). All other properties required to determine the severity of landslides (such as depth, speed and frequency) are derived via probabilistic methods. The severity (or intensity) of landslides, in terms of kinetic energy, is the demand of resistance; the resistance capacity is given by the cumulative distribution functions of the limit state performance (fragility functions) assessed via damage surveys and cards compilation. The investigated limit states are aesthetic (of nominal concern alone), functional (interruption of service) and structural (economic and social losses). The damage probability is the probabilistic convolution of hazard (the probability mass function of the frequency of occurrence of given

Efficacy and safety of adding alirocumab to rosuvastatin versus adding ezetimibe or doubling the rosuvastatin dose in high cardiovascular-risk patients: The ODYSSEY OPTIONS II randomized trial.

PubMed

Farnier, Michel; Jones, Peter; Severance, Randall; Averna, Maurizio; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Colhoun, Helen M; Du, Yunling; Hanotin, Corinne; Donahue, Stephen

2016-01-01

To compare lipid-lowering efficacy of adding alirocumab to rosuvastatin versus other treatment strategies (NCT01730053). Patients receiving baseline rosuvastatin regimens (10 or 20 mg) were randomized to: add-on alirocumab 75 mg every-2-weeks (Q2W) (1-mL subcutaneous injection via pre-filled pen); add-on ezetimibe 10 mg/day; or double-dose rosuvastatin. Patients had cardiovascular disease (CVD) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) ≥70 mg/dL (1.8 mmol/L) or CVD risk factors and LDL-C ≥100 mg/dL (2.6 mmol/L). In the alirocumab group, dose was blindly increased at Week 12 to 150 mg Q2W (also 1-mL volume) in patients not achieving their LDL-C target. Primary endpoint was percent change in calculated LDL-C from baseline to 24 weeks (intent-to-treat). 305 patients were randomized. In the baseline rosuvastatin 10 mg group, significantly greater LDL-C reductions were observed with add-on alirocumab (-50.6%) versus ezetimibe (-14.4%; p < 0.0001) and double-dose rosuvastatin (-16.3%; p < 0.0001). In the baseline rosuvastatin 20 mg group, LDL-C reduction with add-on alirocumab was -36.3% compared with -11.0% with ezetimibe and -15.9% with double-dose rosuvastatin (p = 0.0136 and 0.0453, respectively; pre-specified threshold for significance p < 0.0125). Overall, ∼80% alirocumab patients were maintained on 75 mg Q2W. Of alirocumab-treated patients, 84.9% and 66.7% in the baseline rosuvastatin 10 and 20 mg groups, respectively, achieved risk-based LDL-C targets. Treatment-emergent adverse events occurred in 56.3% of alirocumab patients versus 53.5% ezetimibe and 67.3% double-dose rosuvastatin (pooled data). The addition of alirocumab to rosuvastatin provided incremental LDL-C lowering versus adding ezetimibe or doubling the rosuvastatin dose. Copyright © 2015 Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Phases of global AdS black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Pallab; Krishnan, Chethan; Subramanian, P. N. Bala

2016-06-01

We study the phases of gravity coupled to a charged scalar and gauge field in an asymptotically Anti-de Sitter spacetime ( AdS 4) in the grand canonical ensemble. For the conformally coupled scalar, an intricate phase diagram is charted out between the four relevant solutions: global AdS, boson star, Reissner-Nordstrom black hole and the hairy black hole. The nature of the phase diagram undergoes qualitative changes as the charge of the scalar is changed, which we discuss. We also discuss the new features that arise in the extremal limit.

Appraising the risk matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Tully, Ruth J; Browne, Kevin D

2015-02-01

This critical appraisal explores the reliability and validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool that is widely used in the United Kingdom. The Risk Matrix 2000 has to some extent been empirically validated for use with adult male sex offenders; however, this review highlights that further research into the validity of this static tool with sex offender subgroups or types is necessary in order to improve practical utility. The Risk Matrix 2000 relies on static risk predictors, thus it is limited in scope. This article argues that the addition of dynamic items that have been shown to be predictive of sexual recidivism would further enhance the tool. The paper argues that adding dynamic risk items would fit better with a rehabilitative approach to sex offender risk management and assessment. This would also provide a means by which to effectively plan sex offender treatment and evaluate individual offenders' progress in treatment; however, difficulties remain in identifying and assessing dynamic risk factors of sexual offending and so further research is required. © The Author(s) 2013.

Measuring the Value Added of Management: A Knowledge Value Added Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-30

approach would work in an open acquisitions environment. Management “ Dark Matter ” Dark matter , in the physics sense, is largely unobservable—albeit...critical to understanding the physics of the universe. The dark matter of management has also been largely unobservable in the outputs of the core...this creative aspect as management “ dark matter .” This management “ dark matter ” has largely been assumed to be critical to the duties of a manager

The Effect of Adding Comorbidities to Current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Central-Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection Risk-Adjustment Methodology.

PubMed

Jackson, Sarah S; Leekha, Surbhi; Magder, Laurence S; Pineles, Lisa; Anderson, Deverick J; Trick, William E; Woeltje, Keith F; Kaye, Keith S; Stafford, Kristen; Thom, Kerri; Lowe, Timothy J; Harris, Anthony D

2017-09-01

BACKGROUND Risk adjustment is needed to fairly compare central-line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) rates between hospitals. Until 2017, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) methodology adjusted CLABSI rates only by type of intensive care unit (ICU). The 2017 CDC models also adjust for hospital size and medical school affiliation. We hypothesized that risk adjustment would be improved by including patient demographics and comorbidities from electronically available hospital discharge codes. METHODS Using a cohort design across 22 hospitals, we analyzed data from ICU patients admitted between January 2012 and December 2013. Demographics and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) discharge codes were obtained for each patient, and CLABSIs were identified by trained infection preventionists. Models adjusting only for ICU type and for ICU type plus patient case mix were built and compared using discrimination and standardized infection ratio (SIR). Hospitals were ranked by SIR for each model to examine and compare the changes in rank. RESULTS Overall, 85,849 ICU patients were analyzed and 162 (0.2%) developed CLABSI. The significant variables added to the ICU model were coagulopathy, paralysis, renal failure, malnutrition, and age. The C statistics were 0.55 (95% CI, 0.51-0.59) for the ICU-type model and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.69) for the ICU-type plus patient case-mix model. When the hospitals were ranked by adjusted SIRs, 10 hospitals (45%) changed rank when comorbidity was added to the ICU-type model. CONCLUSIONS Our risk-adjustment model for CLABSI using electronically available comorbidities demonstrated better discrimination than did the CDC model. The CDC should strongly consider comorbidity-based risk adjustment to more accurately compare CLABSI rates across hospitals. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:1019-1024.

Exogenous Variables and Value-Added Assessments: A Fatal Flaw

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berliner, David C.

2014-01-01

Background: There has been rapid growth in value-added assessment of teachers to meet the widely supported policy goal of identifying the most effective and the most ineffective teachers in a school system. The former group is to be rewarded while the latter group is to be helped or fired for their poor performance. But, value-added approaches to…

New massive gravity and AdS(4) counterterms.

PubMed

Jatkar, Dileep P; Sinha, Aninda

2011-04-29

We show that the recently proposed Dirac-Born-Infeld extension of new massive gravity emerges naturally as a counterterm in four-dimensional anti-de Sitter space (AdS(4)). The resulting on-shell Euclidean action is independent of the cutoff at zero temperature. We also find that the same choice of counterterm gives the usual area law for the AdS(4) Schwarzschild black hole entropy in a cutoff-independent manner. The parameter values of the resulting counterterm action correspond to a c=0 theory in the context of the duality between AdS(3) gravity and two-dimensional conformal field theory. We rewrite this theory in terms of the gauge field that is used to recast 3D gravity as a Chern-Simons theory.

Floquet scalar dynamics in global AdS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biasi, Anxo; Carracedo, Pablo; Mas, Javier; Musso, Daniele; Serantes, Alexandre

2018-04-01

We study periodically driven scalar fields and the resulting geometries with global AdS asymptotics. These solutions describe the strongly coupled dynamics of dual finite-size quantum systems under a periodic driving which we interpret as Floquet condensates. They span a continuous two-parameter space that extends the linearized solutions on AdS. We map the regions of stability in the solution space. In a significant portion of the unstable subspace, two very different endpoints are reached depending upon the sign of the perturbation. Collapse into a black hole occurs for one sign. For the opposite sign instead one attains a regular solution with periodic modulation. We also construct quenches where the driving frequency and amplitude are continuously varied. Quasistatic quenches can interpolate between pure AdS and sourced solutions with time periodic vev. By suitably choosing the quasistatic path one can obtain boson stars dual to Floquet condensates at zero driving field. We characterize the adiabaticity of the quenching processes. Besides, we speculate on the possible connections of this framework with time crystals.

School system evaluation by value added analysis under endogeneity.

PubMed

Manzi, Jorge; San Martín, Ernesto; Van Bellegem, Sébastien

2014-01-01

Value added is a common tool in educational research on effectiveness. It is often modeled as a (prediction of a) random effect in a specific hierarchical linear model. This paper shows that this modeling strategy is not valid when endogeneity is present. Endogeneity stems, for instance, from a correlation between the random effect in the hierarchical model and some of its covariates. This paper shows that this phenomenon is far from exceptional and can even be a generic problem when the covariates contain the prior score attainments, a typical situation in value added modeling. Starting from a general, model-free definition of value added, the paper derives an explicit expression of the value added in an endogeneous hierarchical linear Gaussian model. Inference on value added is proposed using an instrumental variable approach. The impact of endogeneity on the value added and the estimated value added is calculated accurately. This is also illustrated on a large data set of individual scores of about 200,000 students in Chile.

Antismoking Ads at the Point of Sale: The Influence of Ad Type and Context on Ad Reactions.

PubMed

Kim, Annice; Nonnemaker, James; Guillory, Jamie; Shafer, Paul; Parvanta, Sarah; Holloway, John; Farrelly, Matthew

2017-06-01

Efforts are underway to educate consumers about the dangers of smoking at the point of sale (POS). Research is limited about the efficacy of POS antismoking ads to guide campaign development. This study experimentally tests whether the type of antismoking ad and the context in which ads are viewed influence people's reactions to the ads. A national convenience sample of 7,812 adult current smokers and recent quitters was randomized to 1 of 39 conditions. Participants viewed one of the four types of antismoking ads (negative health consequences-graphic, negative social consequences-intended emotive, benefits of quitting-informational, benefits of quitting-graphic) in one of the three contexts (alone, next to a cigarette ad, POS tobacco display). We assessed participants' reactions to the ads, including perceived effectiveness, negative emotion, affective dissonance, and motivational reaction. Graphic ads elicited more negative emotion and affective dissonance than benefits of quitting ads. Graphic ads elicited higher perceived effectiveness and more affective dissonance than intended emotive ads. Antismoking ads fared best when viewed alone, and graphic ads were least influenced by the context in which they were viewed. These results suggest that in developing POS campaigns, it is important to consider the competitive pro-tobacco context in which antismoking ads will be viewed.

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the need for quantitative dose–response analysis of genetic toxicology data, the existence and appropriate evaluation of threshold responses, and methods to analyze exposure-response relationships and derive points of departure (PoDs) from which acceptable exposure levels could be determined. This report summarizes the QWG discussions and recommendations regarding appropriate approaches to evaluate exposure-related risks of genotoxic damage, including extrapolation below identified PoDs and across test systems and species. Recommendations include the selection of appropriate genetic endpoints and target tissues, uncertainty factors and extrapolation methods to be considered, the importance and use of information on mode of action, toxicokinetics, metabolism, and exposure biomarkers when using quantitative exposure-response data to determine acceptable exposure levels in human populations or to assess the risk associated with known or anticipated exposures. The empirical relationship between genetic damage (mutation and chromosomal aberration) and cancer in animal models was also examined. It was concluded that there is a general correlation between cancer induction and mutagenic and/or clast

The Prediflood database. A new tool for an integrated approach to historical floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), AD 1033-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriendos, Mariano; Carles Balasch Solanes, Josep; Tuset, Jordi; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep

2014-05-01

Available information of historical floods can improve the management of hydroclimatic hazards. This approach is useful in ungauged basins or with short instrumental data series. On the other hand, flood risk is increasing due to both the expansion of human land occupation and the modification of rainfall patterns in the present global climatic change scenario. Within the Prediflood Project, we have designed an integrated database of historical floods in Catalonia with the aim to feed data to: 1) Meteorological reconstruction and modelling. 2) Hydrological and hydraulic reconstruction. 3) Human impacts evaluation, of these floods. The firsts steps of the database design focus on spatial location and on the quality of the data sources in three levels: 1) Historical documentary sources and newspapers contemporary with the floods. 2) Local historiography. 3) Technical reports. After the application of historiographical methodologies, more than 2300 flood records have been added to the database so far. Despite the completion of the database is still a work in progress, the firsts analyses are already underway and focus on the largest floods with catastrophic effects simultaneously on more than 15 catchments: November 1617, October 1787, September 1842, May 1853, September 1874, January 1898, October 1907, October 1940, September 1962, November 1982, October 1994 and others.

Associations between Potentially Modifiable Risk Factors and Alzheimer Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Study

PubMed Central

Østergaard, Søren D.; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Sharp, Stephen J.; Proitsi, Petroula; Lotta, Luca A.; Day, Felix; Perry, John R. B.; Boehme, Kevin L.; Walter, Stefan; Kauwe, John S.; Gibbons, Laura E.; Larson, Eric B.; Powell, John F.; Langenberg, Claudia; Crane, Paul K.; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Scott, Robert A.

2015-01-01

Background Potentially modifiable risk factors including obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking are associated with Alzheimer disease (AD) and represent promising targets for intervention. However, the causality of these associations is unclear. We sought to assess the causal nature of these associations using Mendelian randomization (MR). Methods and Findings We used SNPs associated with each risk factor as instrumental variables in MR analyses. We considered type 2 diabetes (T2D, N SNPs = 49), fasting glucose (N SNPs = 36), insulin resistance (N SNPs = 10), body mass index (BMI, N SNPs = 32), total cholesterol (N SNPs = 73), HDL-cholesterol (N SNPs = 71), LDL-cholesterol (N SNPs = 57), triglycerides (N SNPs = 39), systolic blood pressure (SBP, N SNPs = 24), smoking initiation (N SNPs = 1), smoking quantity (N SNPs = 3), university completion (N SNPs = 2), and years of education (N SNPs = 1). We calculated MR estimates of associations between each exposure and AD risk using an inverse-variance weighted approach, with summary statistics of SNP–AD associations from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project, comprising a total of 17,008 individuals with AD and 37,154 cognitively normal elderly controls. We found that genetically predicted higher SBP was associated with lower AD risk (odds ratio [OR] per standard deviation [15.4 mm Hg] of SBP [95% CI]: 0.75 [0.62–0.91]; p = 3.4 × 10−3). Genetically predicted higher SBP was also associated with a higher probability of taking antihypertensive medication (p = 6.7 × 10−8). Genetically predicted smoking quantity was associated with lower AD risk (OR per ten cigarettes per day [95% CI]: 0.67 [0.51–0.89]; p = 6.5 × 10−3), although we were unable to stratify by smoking history; genetically predicted smoking initiation was not associated with AD risk (OR = 0.70 [0.37, 1.33]; p = 0.28). We saw no evidence of causal associations between glycemic traits, T2D, BMI, or educational attainment and risk

Meta-Prediction of the Effect of Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase Polymorphisms and Air Pollution on Alzheimer's Disease Risk.

PubMed

Wu, Suh-Mian; Chen, Zhao-Feng; Young, Lufei; Shiao, S Pamela K

2017-01-11

Background : Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a significant public health issue. AD has been linked with methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase ( MTHFR ) C677T polymorphism, but the findings have been inconsistent. The purpose of this meta-predictive analysis is to examine the associations between MTHFR polymorphisms and epigenetic factors, including air pollution, with AD risk using big data analytics approaches. Methods and Results : Forty-three studies (44 groups) were identified by searching various databases. MTHFR C677T TT and CT genotypes had significant associations with AD risk in all racial populations (RR = 1.13, p = 0.0047; and RR = 1.12, p < 0.0001 respectively). Meta-predictive analysis showed significant increases of percentages of MTHFR C677T polymorphism with increased air pollution levels in both AD case group and control group ( p = 0.0021-0.0457); with higher percentages of TT and CT genotypes in the AD case group than that in the control group with increased air pollution levels. Conclusions : The impact of MTHFR C677T polymorphism on susceptibility to AD was modified by level of air pollution. Future studies are needed to further examine the effects of gene-environment interactions including air pollution on AD risk for world populations.

Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

PubMed Central

Barzyk, Timothy M.; Wilson, Sacoby; Wilson, Anthony

2015-01-01

Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific methodology, including partnership formation and solution development as necessary practices. Community, state, and federal examples were described and then summarized based on their adherence to CRA principles of: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) risk analysis and ranking, and (3) risk characterization, interpretation, and management. While each application shared the common goal of protecting human health and the environment, they adopted different approaches to achieve this. For a specific project-level analysis of a particular place or instance, this may be acceptable, but to ensure long-term applicability and transferability to other projects, recommendations for developing a consistent approach to CRA are provided. This approach would draw from best practices, risk assessment and decision analysis sciences, and historical lessons learned to provide results in an understandable and accepted manner by all entities. This approach is intended to provide a common ground around which to develop CRA methods and approaches that can be followed at all levels. PMID:25918910

Nature Versus Nurture: Does Proteostasis Imbalance Underlie the Genetic, Environmental, and Age-Related Risk Factors for Alzheimer's Disease?

PubMed

Kikis, Elise A

2017-08-22

Aging is a risk factor for a number of "age-related diseases", including Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD affects more than a third of all people over the age of 85, and is the leading cause of dementia worldwide. Symptoms include forgetfulness, memory loss, and cognitive decline, ultimately resulting in the need for full-time care. While there is no cure for AD, pharmacological approaches to alleviate symptoms and target underlying causes of the disease have been developed, albeit with limited success. This review presents the age-related, genetic, and environmental risk factors for AD and proposes a hypothesis for the mechanistic link between genetics and the environment. In short, much is known about the genetics of early-onset familial AD (EO-FAD) and the central role played by the Aβ peptide and protein misfolding, but late-onset AD (LOAD) is not thought to have direct genetic causes. Nonetheless, genetic risk factors such as isoforms of the protein ApoE have been identified. Additional findings suggest that air pollution caused by the combustion of fossil fuels may be an important environmental risk factor for AD. A hypothesis suggesting that poor air quality might act by disrupting protein folding homeostasis (proteostasis) is presented.

Adding without Contradiction: The Challenge of Opening up Interracial Dialogue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cargile, Aaron Castelan

2010-01-01

This essay begins with the question, "What can educators do to minimize the risks inherent to interracial dialogue?" Though no such meaningful conversation ever will be without risk, this article offers two specific strategies that have helped foster open classroom climates: adding without contradiction and granting freedom for conclusions. Both…

A Chemical Activity Approach to Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

To support the goals articulated in the vision for exposure and risk assessment in the twenty-first century, we highlight the application of a thermodynamic chemical activity approach for the exposure and risk assessment of chemicals in the environment. The present article descri...

Governance of environmental risk: new approaches to managing stakeholder involvement.

PubMed

Benn, Suzanne; Dunphy, Dexter; Martin, Andrew

2009-04-01

Disputes concerning industrial legacies such as the disposal of toxic wastes illustrate changing pressures on corporations and governments. Business and governments are now confronted with managing the expectations of a society increasingly aware of the social and environmental impacts and risks associated with economic development and demanding more equitable distribution and democratic management of such risks. The closed managerialist decision-making of the powerful bureaucracies and corporations of the industrial era is informed by traditional management theory which cannot provide a framework for the adequate governance of these risks. Recent socio-political theories have conceptualised some key themes that must be addressed in a more fitting approach to governance. We identify more recent management and governance theory which addresses these themes and develop a process-based approach to governance of environmental disputes that allows for the evolving nature of stakeholder relations in a highly complex multiple stakeholder arena.

Hypoglycaemia when adding sulphonylurea to metformin: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Andersen, Stig Ejdrup; Christensen, Mikkel

2016-11-01

The risk of hypoglycaemia may differ among sulphonylureas (SUs), but evidence from head-to-head comparisons is sparse. Performing a network meta-analysis to use indirect evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), we compared the relative risk of hypoglycaemia with newer generation SUs when added to metformin. A systematic review identified RCTs lasting 12-52 weeks and evaluating SUs added to inadequate metformin monotherapy (≥1000 mg/day) in type 2 diabetes. Adding RCTs investigating the active comparators from the identified SU trials, we established a coherent network. Hypoglycaemia of any severity was the primary end point. Thirteen trials of SUs and 14 of oral non-SU antihyperglycaemic agents (16 260 patients) were included. All reported hypoglycaemia only as adverse events. Producing comparable reductions in HbA 1C of -0.66 to -0.84% (-7 to -9 mmol/mol), the risk of hypoglycaemia was lowest with gliclazide compared to glipizide (OR 0.22, CrI: 0.05 to 0.96), glimepiride (OR 0.40, CrI: 0.13 to 1.27), and glibenclamide (OR 0.21, CrI: 0.03 to 1.48). A major limitation is varying definitions of hypoglycaemia across studies. When added to metformin, gliclazide was associated with the lowest risk of hypoglycaemia between the newer generation SUs. Clinicians should consider the risk of hypoglycaemia agent-specific when selecting an SU agent. © 2016 The British Pharmacological Society.

Hypoglycaemia when adding sulphonylurea to metformin: a systematic review and network meta‐analysis

PubMed Central

Christensen, Mikkel

2016-01-01

Aims The risk of hypoglycaemia may differ among sulphonylureas (SUs), but evidence from head‐to‐head comparisons is sparse. Performing a network meta‐analysis to use indirect evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), we compared the relative risk of hypoglycaemia with newer generation SUs when added to metformin. Methods A systematic review identified RCTs lasting 12–52 weeks and evaluating SUs added to inadequate metformin monotherapy (≥1000 mg/day) in type 2 diabetes. Adding RCTs investigating the active comparators from the identified SU trials, we established a coherent network. Hypoglycaemia of any severity was the primary end point. Results Thirteen trials of SUs and 14 of oral non‐SU antihyperglycaemic agents (16 260 patients) were included. All reported hypoglycaemia only as adverse events. Producing comparable reductions in HbA1C of −0.66 to −0.84% (−7 to −9 mmol/mol), the risk of hypoglycaemia was lowest with gliclazide compared to glipizide (OR 0.22, CrI: 0.05 to 0.96), glimepiride (OR 0.40, CrI: 0.13 to 1.27), and glibenclamide (OR 0.21, CrI: 0.03 to 1.48). A major limitation is varying definitions of hypoglycaemia across studies. Conclusions When added to metformin, gliclazide was associated with the lowest risk of hypoglycaemia between the newer generation SUs. Clinicians should consider the risk of hypoglycaemia agent‐specific when selecting an SU agent. PMID:27426428

HACCP-based quality risk management approach to udder health problems on dairy farms

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Against the background of prevailing udder health problems on dairy farms, this paper discusses a new approach to mastitis control. Current udder health control programmes, such as the 'five-point plan', are highlighted and their drawbacks indicated. The concept and principles of hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP) are introduced. The eight core elements of this concept are dealt with by using the example of a dairy herd with a mastitis problem due to Staphylococcus aureus. The various steps to be taken in the development of a HACCP-based quality risk management programme are illustrated through the application of core elements. Finally, it is shown that the HACCP key words, structure, organisation, planning, communication and formalisation; which do not frequently appear in conventional herd health and production management programmes can contribute to better udder health. The role of the veterinarian can be paramount and of added value, if he/she is willing to invest in new knowledge and skills, such as the HACCP concept, farm economics, animal nutrition, and particularly the role of coach to the dairy farmer in the implementation of preventative measures in relation to udder health. PMID:22082372

HACCP-based quality risk management approach to udder health problems on dairy farms.

PubMed

Noordhuizen, Jptm; Cannas da Silva, J

2009-04-01

Against the background of prevailing udder health problems on dairy farms, this paper discusses a new approach to mastitis control. Current udder health control programmes, such as the 'five-point plan', are highlighted and their drawbacks indicated. The concept and principles of hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP) are introduced. The eight core elements of this concept are dealt with by using the example of a dairy herd with a mastitis problem due to Staphylococcus aureus. The various steps to be taken in the development of a HACCP-based quality risk management programme are illustrated through the application of core elements. Finally, it is shown that the HACCP key words, structure, organisation, planning, communication and formalisation; which do not frequently appear in conventional herd health and production management programmes can contribute to better udder health. The role of the veterinarian can be paramount and of added value, if he/she is willing to invest in new knowledge and skills, such as the HACCP concept, farm economics, animal nutrition, and particularly the role of coach to the dairy farmer in the implementation of preventative measures in relation to udder health.

Integrating physical and financial approaches to manage environmental financial risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Characklis, Gregory; Meyer, Eliot; Foster, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Physical and/or engineered solutions have long been used to manage risks associated with adverse environmental events. Examples include reservoirs as a tool for mitigating drought-related supply risk, levees for managing flood risk and dredging of inland waterways to ensure navigability during low flow periods. These measures can reduce many types of risk (e.g., loss of life), but are often employed as a means of protecting against financial losses. When the focus is on managing environmental financial risk, physical solutions can be effective, but also costly. In many cases, non-physical tools can provide a less expensive means of managing financial risk, with these often taking the form of financial instruments such as hedging contracts, contingency funds or insurance. Some of these instruments, such as flood insurance, are widely available, but historically many environmental financial risks have been managed primarily (or solely) via physical solutions without much consideration of alternatives, thereby opening opportunities for innovation in developing financial solutions. Recent research has demonstrated that financial instruments can play a significant role in managing drought-related financial risk in sectors as diverse as water utilities, energy generation and inland navigation. Nonetheless, this work has largely considered the use of these instruments within systems in which physical solutions are already in place (but failing to achieve desired performance). The next step in the evolution of managing environmental financial risk involves developing methods for designing risk management strategies that do not assume an established physical system. Here the goal is to identify the relative role that physical solutions and financial instruments should play as they are integrated into a comprehensive risk management strategy. This is not a straightforward challenge as one approach reduces the risk of financial losses and the other redistributes those losses

Lignocellulose: A sustainable material to produce value-added products with a zero waste approach-A review.

PubMed

Arevalo-Gallegos, Alejandra; Ahmad, Zanib; Asgher, Muhammad; Parra-Saldivar, Roberto; Iqbal, Hafiz M N

2017-06-01

A novel facility from the green technologies to integrate biomass-based carbohydrates, lignin, oils and other materials extraction and transformation into a wider spectrum of marketable and value-added products with a zero waste approach is reviewed. With ever-increasing scientific knowledge, worldwide economic and environmental consciousness, demands of legislative authorities and the manufacture, use, and removal of petrochemical-based by-products, from the last decade, there has been increasing research interests in the value or revalue of lignocellulose-based materials. The potential characteristics like natural abundance, renewability, recyclability, and ease of accessibility all around the year, around the globe, all makes residual biomass as an eco-attractive and petro-alternative candidate. In this context, many significant research efforts have been taken into account to change/replace petroleum-based economy into a bio-based economy, with an aim to develop a comprehensively sustainable, socially acceptable, and eco-friendly society. The present review work mainly focuses on various aspects of bio-refinery as a sustainable technology to process lignocellulose 'materials' into value-added products. Innovations in the bio-refinery world are providing, a portfolio of sustainable and eco-efficient products to compete in the market presently dominated by the petroleum-based products, and therefore, it is currently a subject of intensive research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Worldsheet scattering in AdS3/CFT2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundin, Per; Wulff, Linus

2013-07-01

We confront the recently proposed exact S-matrices for AdS 3/ CFT 2 with direct worldsheet calculations. Utilizing the BMN and Near Flat Space (NFS) expansions for strings on AdS 3 × S 3 × S 3 × S 1 and AdS 3 × S 3 × T 4 we compute both tree-level and one-loop scattering amplitudes. Up to some minor issues we find nice agreement in the tree-level sector. At the one-loop level however we find that certain non-zero tree-level processes, which are not visible in the exact solution, contribute, via the optical theorem, and give an apparent mismatch for certain amplitudes. Furthermore we find that a proposed one-loop modification of the dressing phase correctly reproduces the worldsheet calculation while the standard Hernandez-Lopez phase does not. We also compute several massless to massless processes.

Intake of added sugar in Malaysia: a review.

PubMed

Amarra, Maria Sofia V; Khor, Geok Lin; Chan, Pauline

2016-01-01

The term 'added sugars' refers to sugars and syrup added to foods during processing or preparation, and sugars and syrups added at the table. Calls to limit the daily intakes of added sugars and its sources arose from evidence analysed by WHO, the American Heart Association and other organizations. The present review examined the best available evidence regarding levels of added sugar consumption among different age and sex groups in Malaysia and sources of added sugars. Information was extracted from food balance sheets, household expenditure surveys, nutrition surveys and published studies. Varying results emerged, as nationwide information on intake of sugar and foods with added sugar were obtained at different times and used different assessment methods. Data from the 2003 Malaysian Adult Nutrition Survey (MANS) using food frequency questionnaires suggested that on average, Malaysian adults consumed 30 grams of sweetened condensed milk (equivalent to 16 grams sugar) and 21 grams of table sugar per day, which together are below the WHO recommendation of 50 grams sugar for every 2000 kcal/day to reduce risk of chronic disease. Published studies suggested that, for both adults and the elderly, frequently consumed sweetened foods were beverages (tea or coffee) with sweetened condensed milk and added sugar. More accurate data should be obtained by conducting population-wide studies using biomarkers of sugar intake (e.g. 24-hour urinary sucrose and fructose excretion or serum abundance of the stable isotope 13C) to determine intake levels, and multiple 24 hour recalls to identify major food sources of added sugar.

Risk Prevention of Spreading Emerging Infectious Diseases Using a HybridCrowdsensing Paradigm, Optical Sensors, and Smartphone.

PubMed

Edoh, Thierry

2018-04-10

The risk of spreading diseases within (ad-hoc)crowds and the need to pervasively screen asymptomatic individuals to protect the population against emerging infectious diseases, request permanentcrowd surveillance., particularly in high-risk regions. Thecase of Ebola epidemic in West Africa in recent years has shown the need for pervasive screening. The trend today in diseases surveillance is consisting of epidemiological data collection about emerging infectious diseases using social media, wearable sensors systems, or mobile applications and data analysis. This approach presents various limitations. This paper proposes a novel approach for diseases monitoring and risk prevention of spreading infectious diseases. The proposed approach, aiming at overcoming the limitation of existing disease surveillance approaches, combines the hybrid crowdsensing paradigm with sensing individuals' bio-signals using optical sensors for monitoring any risks of spreading emerging infectious diseases in any (ad-hoc) crowds. A proof-of-concept has been performed using a drone armed with a cat s60 smartphone featuring a Forward Looking Infra-Red (FLIR) camera. According to the results of the conducted experiment, the concept has the potential to improve the conventional epidemiological data collection. The measurement is reliable, and the recorded data are valid. The measurement error rates are about 8%.

Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

2014-11-01

As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe themore » RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.« less

Child Gain Approach and Loss Avoidance Behavior: Relationships With Depression Risk, Negative Mood, and Anhedonia.

PubMed

Luking, Katherine R; Pagliaccio, David; Luby, Joan L; Barch, Deanna M

2015-08-01

Reduced reward responsiveness and altered response to loss of reward are observed in adults with major depressive disorder (MDD) and adolescents at increased risk for MDD based on family history. However, it is unclear whether altered behavioral responsiveness to reward/loss is a lifelong marker of MDD risk, which is evident before the normative adolescent increase in incentive responding. Healthy 7- to 10-year-old children of mothers with MDD (high risk: n = 27) or without MDD (low risk: n = 42) performed 2 signal detection tasks assessing response bias toward reward (approach) and away from loss (avoidance). Differences in approach/avoidance were related to MDD risk, child general depressive symptoms (maternal report), child-reported anhedonic symptoms, and child-reported negative mood symptoms via repeated-measures analysis of variance. MDD risk did not significantly relate to gain approach or loss avoidance. However, within high-risk children, higher numbers of maternal depressive episodes predicted blunted loss avoidance. Blunted gain approach was related to elevated anhedonic symptoms, whereas enhanced loss avoidance was related to elevated negative mood. Elevated negative mood was further related to blunted gain approach in high-risk children but related to enhanced gain approach in low-risk children. In children, individual differences in specific depressive symptoms and recurrence of maternal depression significantly predicted gain approach/loss avoidance, but the presence/absence of maternal MDD did not. Child depressive symptoms characterized by low positive affect (anhedonia) were related to blunted gain responsiveness, whereas elevated depressed/negative mood was related to enhanced loss responsiveness. Findings suggest that relations between gain approach and negative mood may be an important distinction between those at high versus low risk for MDD. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc

The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcgregor, Glenn B.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Lobegeiger, Jaye S.; Holloway, Dean; Menke, Norbert; Coysh, Julie

2018-03-01

For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

New screening approach for risk assessment of pesticides in ambient air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusà, Vicent; Coscollà, Clara; Millet, Maurice

2014-10-01

We present a novel screening approach for inhalation risk assessment of currently used pesticides (CUPs) in ambient air, based on the measurements of pesticide levels in the inhalable fraction of the particulate matter (PM10). Total concentrations in ambient air (gas + particle phases) were estimated using a theoretical model of distribution of semi-volatile organic compounds between the gas and the particulate phase based on the octanol-air partition (Koa) of each pesticide. The proposed approach was used in a pilot study conducted in a rural station in Valencia (Spain) from April through to October 2010. Twenty out of 82 analysed pesticides were detected in average concentrations ranging from 1.63 to 117.01 pg m-3. For adults, children and infants the estimated chronic inhalation risk, expressed as Hazard Quotient (HQ) was <1 for all pesticides. Likewise, the cumulative exposure for detected organophosphorus, pyrethroids and carbamates pesticides, was estimated using as metrics the Hazard Index (HI), which was less than 1 for the three families of pesticides assessed. The cancer risk estimated for the detected pesticides classified as Likely or Possible carcinogens was less than 1.15E-7 for infants. In our opinion, the screening approach proposed could be used in the monitoring and risk assessment of pesticides in ambient air.

Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.

2014-12-01

How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but

Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwag, Shinyoung

Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or

Meta-Prediction of the Effect of Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase Polymorphisms and Air Pollution on Alzheimer’s Disease Risk

PubMed Central

Wu, Suh-Mian; Chen, Zhao-Feng; Young, Lufei; Shiao, S. Pamela K.

2017-01-01

Background: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a significant public health issue. AD has been linked with methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T polymorphism, but the findings have been inconsistent. The purpose of this meta-predictive analysis is to examine the associations between MTHFR polymorphisms and epigenetic factors, including air pollution, with AD risk using big data analytics approaches. Methods and Results: Forty-three studies (44 groups) were identified by searching various databases. MTHFR C677T TT and CT genotypes had significant associations with AD risk in all racial populations (RR = 1.13, p = 0.0047; and RR = 1.12, p < 0.0001 respectively). Meta-predictive analysis showed significant increases of percentages of MTHFR C677T polymorphism with increased air pollution levels in both AD case group and control group (p = 0.0021–0.0457); with higher percentages of TT and CT genotypes in the AD case group than that in the control group with increased air pollution levels. Conclusions: The impact of MTHFR C677T polymorphism on susceptibility to AD was modified by level of air pollution. Future studies are needed to further examine the effects of gene-environment interactions including air pollution on AD risk for world populations. PMID:28085050

A 3S Risk ?3SR? Assessment Approach for Nuclear Power: Safety Security and Safeguards.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forrest, Robert; Reinhardt, Jason Christian; Wheeler, Timothy A.

Safety-focused risk analysis and assessment approaches struggle to adequately include malicious, deliberate acts against the nuclear power industry's fissile and waste material, infrastructure, and facilities. Further, existing methods do not adequately address non- proliferation issues. Treating safety, security, and safeguards concerns independently is inefficient because, at best, it may not take explicit advantage of measures that provide benefits against multiple risk domains, and, at worst, it may lead to implementations that increase overall risk due to incompatibilities. What is needed is an integrated safety, security and safeguards risk (or "3SR") framework for describing and assessing nuclear power risks that canmore » enable direct trade-offs and interactions in order to inform risk management processes -- a potential paradigm shift in risk analysis and management. These proceedings of the Sandia ePRA Workshop (held August 22-23, 2017) are an attempt to begin the discussions and deliberations to extend and augment safety focused risk assessment approaches to include security concerns and begin moving towards a 3S Risk approach. Safeguards concerns were not included in this initial workshop and are left to future efforts. This workshop focused on four themes in order to begin building out a the safety and security portions of the 3S Risk toolkit: 1. Historical Approaches and Tools 2. Current Challenges 3. Modern Approaches 4. Paths Forward and Next Steps This report is organized along the four areas described above, and concludes with a summary of key points. 2 Contact: rforres@sandia.gov; +1 (925) 294-2728« less

Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism--a practical approach.

PubMed

Fahrni, Jennifer; Husmann, Marc; Gretener, Silvia B; Keo, Hong H

2015-01-01

Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice.

The common risk factor approach: a rational basis for promoting oral health.

PubMed

Sheiham, A; Watt, R G

2000-12-01

Conventional oral health education is not effective nor efficient. Many oral health programmes are developed and implemented in isolation from other health programmes. This often leads, at best to a duplication of effort, or worse, conflicting messages being delivered to the public. In addition, oral health programmes tend to concentrate on individual behaviour change and largely ignore the influence of socio-political factors as the key determinants of health. Based upon the general principles of health promotion this paper presents a rationale for an alternative approach for oral health policy. The common risk factor approach addresses risk factors common to many chronic conditions within the context of the wider socio-environmental milieu. Oral health is determined by diet, hygiene, smoking, alcohol use, stress and trauma. As these causes are common to a number of other chronic diseases, adopting a collaborative approach is more rational than one that is disease specific. The common risk factor approach can be implemented in a variety of ways. Food policy development and the Health Promoting Schools initiative are used as examples of effective ways of promoting oral health.

Tailored nutritional guidance for home-dwelling AD families: the Feasibility of and Elements Promoting Positive Changes in Diet (NuAD-Trial).

PubMed

Puranen, T M; Pitkala, K H; Suominen, M H

2015-04-01

To describe the process and feasibility of our randomised, controlled intervention study (NuAD trial) that positively affected the nutrition and quality of life, and prevented falls of home-dwelling persons with Alzheimer disease (AD). This qualitative study comprised 40 persons with AD and spousal caregivers of our trial. Our intervention during one year involved tailored nutritional guidance for these couples. The nutritionist's field notes (about 100 pages) and the participant feedback questionnaires (N = 28) served to analyse the feasibility of intervention, factors promoting the application of intervention and challenges hindering it. Thematic content analysis served to analyse our data with the grounded theory approach. We identified several positive elements promoting better nutrition: positive attitudes on nutrition to participants including a participant-centred approach, positive feedback, findings of food diaries and practical suggestions. Home visits by the nutritionist were convenient and participants felt that someone cares. Group meetings which included protein-rich snacks strengthened the nutritional message by enabling discussions and socialising. The oral nutritional supplements (ONS) helped participants to regain their energy and to motivate them to exercise and make changes in their diets. Obstacles to making changes in diets included participants' false ideas about nutrition, especially with regard to weight gain. Health problems and functional limitations hampered food management, and some families had inveterate eating habits. The positive feedback from participants indicated the feasibility of our tailored nutritional guidance. Assessment-based, tailored nutritional guidance implemented with a personal and positive approach may inspire and empower AD families to make positive changes in their diets, leading them to improved nutrition and quality of life.

A time series modeling approach in risk appraisal of violent and sexual recidivism.

PubMed

Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Fedoroff, J Paul; Curry, Susan; Amundsen, David E

2010-10-01

For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.

Holography in Lovelock Chern-Simons AdS gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cvetković, Branislav; Miskovic, Olivera; Simić, Dejan

2017-08-01

We analyze holographic field theory dual to Lovelock Chern-Simons anti-de Sitter (AdS) gravity in higher dimensions using first order formalism. We first find asymptotic symmetries in the AdS sector showing that they consist of local translations, local Lorentz rotations, dilatations and non-Abelian gauge transformations. Then, we compute 1-point functions of energy-momentum and spin currents in a dual conformal field theory and write Ward identities. We find that the holographic theory possesses Weyl anomaly and also breaks non-Abelian gauge symmetry at the quantum level.

Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe.

PubMed

Ibelings, Bas W; Backer, Lorraine C; Kardinaal, W Edwin A; Chorus, Ingrid

2015-12-01

Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L -1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence - as cell numbers or biomass - rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe

PubMed Central

Ibelings, Bas W.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Kardinaal, W. Edwin A.; Chorus, Ingrid

2015-01-01

Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L−1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence – as cell numbers or biomass – rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

Added fructose: a principal driver of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its consequences.

PubMed

DiNicolantonio, James J; O'Keefe, James H; Lucan, Sean C

2015-03-01

Data from animal experiments and human studies implicate added sugars (eg, sucrose and high-fructose corn syrup) in the development of diabetes mellitus and related metabolic derangements that raise cardiovascular (CV) risk. Added fructose in particular (eg, as a constituent of added sucrose or as the main component of high-fructose sweeteners) may pose the greatest problem for incident diabetes, diabetes-related metabolic abnormalities, and CV risk. Conversely, whole foods that contain fructose (eg, fruits and vegetables) pose no problem for health and are likely protective against diabetes and adverse CV outcomes. Several dietary guidelines appropriately recommend consuming whole foods over foods with added sugars, but some (eg, recommendations from the American Diabetes Association) do not recommend restricting fructose-containing added sugars to any specific level. Other guidelines (such as from the Institute of Medicine) allow up to 25% of calories as fructose-containing added sugars. Intake of added fructose at such high levels would undoubtedly worsen rates of diabetes and its complications. There is no need for added fructose or any added sugars in the diet; reducing intake to 5% of total calories (the level now suggested by the World Health Organization) has been shown to improve glucose tolerance in humans and decrease the prevalence of diabetes and the metabolic derangements that often precede and accompany it. Reducing the intake of added sugars could translate to reduced diabetes-related morbidity and premature mortality for populations. Copyright © 2015 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gauge boson exchange in AdS d+1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Hoker, Eric; Freedman, Daniel Z.

1999-04-01

We study the amplitude for exchange of massless gauge bosons between pairs of massive scalar fields in anti-de Sitter space. In the AdS/CFT correspondence this amplitude describes the contribution of conserved flavor symmetry currents to 4-point functions of scalar operators in the boundary conformal theory. A concise, covariant, Y2K compatible derivation of the gauge boson propagator in AdS d + 1 is given. Techniques are developed to calculate the two bulk integrals over AdS space leading to explicit expressions or convenient, simple integral representations for the amplitude. The amplitude contains leading power and sub-leading logarithmic singularities in the gauge boson channel and leading logarithms in the crossed channel. The new methods of this paper are expected to have other applications in the study of the Maldacena conjecture.

Mitigating Sports Injury Risks Using Internet of Things and Analytics Approaches.

PubMed

Wilkerson, Gary B; Gupta, Ashish; Colston, Marisa A

2018-03-12

Sport injuries restrict participation, impose a substantial economic burden, and can have persisting adverse effects on health-related quality of life. The effective use of Internet of Things (IoT), when combined with analytics approaches, can improve player safety through identification of injury risk factors that can be addressed by targeted risk reduction training activities. Use of IoT devices can facilitate highly efficient quantification of relevant functional capabilities prior to sport participation, which could substantially advance the prevailing sport injury management paradigm. This study introduces a framework for using sensor-derived IoT data to supplement other data for objective estimation of each individual college football player's level of injury risk, which is an approach to injury prevention that has not been previously reported. A cohort of 45 NCAA Division I-FCS college players provided data in the form of self-ratings of persisting effects of previous injuries and single-leg postural stability test. Instantaneous change in body mass acceleration (jerk) during the test was quantified by a smartphone accelerometer, with data wirelessly transmitted to a secure cloud server. Injuries sustained from the beginning of practice sessions until the end of the 13-game season were documented, along with the number of games played by each athlete over the course of a 13-game season. Results demonstrate a strong prediction model. Our approach may have strong relevance to the estimation of injury risk for other physically demanding activities. Clearly, there is great potential for improvement of injury prevention initiatives through identification of individual athletes who possess elevated injury risk and targeted interventions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Tailoring the implementation of new biomarkers based on their added predictive value in subgroups of individuals.

PubMed

van Giessen, A; Moons, K G M; de Wit, G A; Verschuren, W M M; Boer, J M A; Koffijberg, H

2015-01-01

The value of new biomarkers or imaging tests, when added to a prediction model, is currently evaluated using reclassification measures, such as the net reclassification improvement (NRI). However, these measures only provide an estimate of improved reclassification at population level. We present a straightforward approach to characterize subgroups of reclassified individuals in order to tailor implementation of a new prediction model to individuals expected to benefit from it. In a large Dutch population cohort (n = 21,992) we classified individuals to low (< 5%) and high (≥ 5%) fatal cardiovascular disease risk by the Framingham risk score (FRS) and reclassified them based on the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE). Subsequently, we characterized the reclassified individuals and, in case of heterogeneity, applied cluster analysis to identify and characterize subgroups. These characterizations were used to select individuals expected to benefit from implementation of SCORE. Reclassification after applying SCORE in all individuals resulted in an NRI of 5.00% (95% CI [-0.53%; 11.50%]) within the events, 0.06% (95% CI [-0.08%; 0.22%]) within the nonevents, and a total NRI of 0.051 (95% CI [-0.004; 0.116]). Among the correctly downward reclassified individuals cluster analysis identified three subgroups. Using the characterizations of the typically correctly reclassified individuals, implementing SCORE only in individuals expected to benefit (n = 2,707,12.3%) improved the NRI to 5.32% (95% CI [-0.13%; 12.06%]) within the events, 0.24% (95% CI [0.10%; 0.36%]) within the nonevents, and a total NRI of 0.055 (95% CI [0.001; 0.123]). Overall, the risk levels for individuals reclassified by tailored implementation of SCORE were more accurate. In our empirical example the presented approach successfully characterized subgroups of reclassified individuals that could be used to improve reclassification and reduce implementation burden. In particular when newly added

Omega-3 Fatty Acid Docosahexaenoic Acid Increases SorLA/LR11, a Sorting Protein with Reduced Expression in Sporadic Alzheimer’s Disease (AD): Relevance to AD Prevention

PubMed Central

Ma, Qiu-Lan; Teter, Bruce; Ubeda, Oliver J.; Morihara, Takashi; Dhoot, Dilsher; Nyby, Michael D.; Tuck, Michael L.; Frautschy, Sally A.; Cole, Greg M.

2008-01-01

Environmental and genetic factors, notably ApoE4, contribute to the etiology of late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD). Reduced mRNA and protein for an apolipoprotein E (ApoE) receptor family member, SorLA (LR11) has been found in LOAD but not early-onset AD, suggesting that LR11 loss is not secondary to pathology. LR11 is a neuronal sorting protein that reduces amyloid precursor protein (APP) trafficking to secretases that generate β-amyloid (Aβ). Genetic polymorphisms that reduce LR11 expression are associated with increased AD risk. However these polymorphisms account for only a fraction of cases with LR11 deficits, suggesting involvement of environmental factors. Because lipoprotein receptors are typically lipid-regulated, we postulated that LR11 is regulated by docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), an essential ω-3 fatty acid related to reduced AD risk and reduced Aβ accumulation. In this study, we report that DHA significantly increases LR11 in multiple systems, including primary rat neurons, aged non-Tg mice and an aged DHA-depleted APPsw AD mouse model. DHA also increased LR11 in a human neuronal line. In vivo elevation of LR11 was also observed with dietary fish oil in young rats with insulin resistance, a model for type II diabetes, another AD risk factor. These data argue that DHA induction of LR11 does not require DHA-depleting diets and is not age dependent. Because reduced LR11 is known to increase Aβ production and may be a significant genetic cause of LOAD, our results indicate that DHA increases in SorLA/LR11 levels may play an important role in preventing LOAD. PMID:18160637

Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach (CARMINA).

PubMed

Tricarico, Pierfrancesco; Tardivo, Stefano; Sotgiu, Giovanni; Moretti, Francesca; Poletti, Piera; Fiore, Alberto; Monturano, Massimo; Mura, Ida; Privitera, Gaetano; Brusaferro, Silvio

2016-08-08

Purpose - The European Union recommendations for patient safety calls for shared clinical risk management (CRM) safety standards able to guide organizations in CRM implementation. The purpose of this paper is to develop a self-evaluation tool to measure healthcare organization performance on CRM and guide improvements over time. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-step approach was implemented including: a systematic literature review; consensus meetings with an expert panel from eight Italian leader organizations to get to an agreement on the first version; field testing to test instrument feasibility and flexibility; Delphi strategy with a second expert panel for content validation and balanced scoring system development. Findings - The self-assessment tool - Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach includes seven areas (governance, communication, knowledge and skills, safe environment, care processes, adverse event management, learning from experience) and 52 standards. Each standard is evaluated according to four performance levels: minimum; monitoring; outcomes; and improvement actions, which resulted in a feasible, flexible and valid instrument to be used throughout different organizations. Practical implications - This tool allows practitioners to assess their CRM activities compared to minimum levels, monitor performance, benchmarking with other institutions and spreading results to different stakeholders. Originality/value - The multi-step approach allowed us to identify core minimum CRM levels in a field where no consensus has been reached. Most standards may be easily adopted in other countries.

Integrative Approaches to Evaluating Neurotoxicity Data for Risk Assessment.

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment classically has been based on single adverse outcomes identified as the Lowest Observable Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) or the highest dose level in a credible study producing a No Observable Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL). While this approach has been useful overal...

Next-Generation A/D Sampler ADS3000+ for VLBI2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takefuji, Kazuhiro; Takeuchi, Hiroshi; Tsutsumi, Masanori; Koyama, Yasuhiro

2010-01-01

A high-speed A/D sampler, called ADS3000+, has been developed in 2008, which can sample one analog signal up to 4 Gbps to versatile Linux PC. After A/D conversion, the ADS3000+ can perform digital signal processing such as real-time DBBC (Digital Base Band Conversion) and FIR filtering such as simple CW RFI filtering using the installed FPGAs. A 4 Gsps fringe test with the ADS3000+ has been successfully performed. The ADS3000+ will not exclusively be used for VLBI but will also be employed in other applications.

Managing Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Clinical Updates and Three Strategic Approaches.

PubMed

Chodara, Ann M; Wattiaux, Aimée; Bartels, Christie M

2017-04-01

ᅟ: The increase in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is well known; however, appropriate management of this elevated risk in rheumatology clinics is less clear. By critically reviewing literature published within the past 5 years, we aim to clarify current knowledge and gaps regarding CVD risk management in RA. We examine recent guidelines, recommendations, and evidence and discuss three approaches: (1) RA-specific management including treat-to-target and medication management, (2) assessment of comprehensive individual risk, and (3) targeting traditional CVD risk factors (hypertension, smoking, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, obesity, and physical inactivity) at a population level. Considering that 75% of US RA visits occur in specialty clinics, further research is needed regarding evidence-based strategies to manage and reduce CVD risk in RA. This review highlights clinical updates including US cardiology and international professional society guidelines, successful evidence-based population approaches from primary care, and novel opportunities in rheumatology care to reduce CVD risk in RA.

Recent publications from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative: Reviewing progress toward improved AD clinical trials.

PubMed

Weiner, Michael W; Veitch, Dallas P; Aisen, Paul S; Beckett, Laurel A; Cairns, Nigel J; Green, Robert C; Harvey, Danielle; Jack, Clifford R; Jagust, William; Morris, John C; Petersen, Ronald C; Saykin, Andrew J; Shaw, Leslie M; Toga, Arthur W; Trojanowski, John Q

2017-04-01

The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) has continued development and standardization of methodologies for biomarkers and has provided an increased depth and breadth of data available to qualified researchers. This review summarizes the over 400 publications using ADNI data during 2014 and 2015. We used standard searches to find publications using ADNI data. (1) Structural and functional changes, including subtle changes to hippocampal shape and texture, atrophy in areas outside of hippocampus, and disruption to functional networks, are detectable in presymptomatic subjects before hippocampal atrophy; (2) In subjects with abnormal β-amyloid deposition (Aβ+), biomarkers become abnormal in the order predicted by the amyloid cascade hypothesis; (3) Cognitive decline is more closely linked to tau than Aβ deposition; (4) Cerebrovascular risk factors may interact with Aβ to increase white-matter (WM) abnormalities which may accelerate Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression in conjunction with tau abnormalities; (5) Different patterns of atrophy are associated with impairment of memory and executive function and may underlie psychiatric symptoms; (6) Structural, functional, and metabolic network connectivities are disrupted as AD progresses. Models of prion-like spreading of Aβ pathology along WM tracts predict known patterns of cortical Aβ deposition and declines in glucose metabolism; (7) New AD risk and protective gene loci have been identified using biologically informed approaches; (8) Cognitively normal and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects are heterogeneous and include groups typified not only by "classic" AD pathology but also by normal biomarkers, accelerated decline, and suspected non-Alzheimer's pathology; (9) Selection of subjects at risk of imminent decline on the basis of one or more pathologies improves the power of clinical trials; (10) Sensitivity of cognitive outcome measures to early changes in cognition has been improved and

An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov; Thompson, Chad M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A descriptionmore » of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.« less

Effect of femoral head size and surgical approach on risk of revision for dislocation after total hip arthroplasty

PubMed Central

Zijlstra, Wierd P; De Hartog, Bas; Van Steenbergen, Liza N; Scheurs, B Willem; Nelissen, Rob G H H

2017-01-01

Background and purpose Recurrent dislocation is the commonest cause of early revision of a total hip arthropasty (THA). We examined the effect of femoral head size and surgical approach on revision rate for dislocation, and for other reasons, after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Patients and methods We analyzed data on 166,231 primary THAs and 3,754 subsequent revision THAs performed between 2007 and 2015, registered in the Dutch Arthroplasty Register (LROI). Revision rate for dislocation, and for all other causes, were calculated by competing-risk analysis at 6-year follow-up. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression ratios (HRs) were used for comparisons. Results Posterolateral approach was associated with higher dislocation revision risk (HR =1) than straight lateral, anterolateral, and anterior approaches (HR =0.5–0.6). However, the risk of revision for all other reasons (especially stem loosening) was higher with anterior and anterolateral approaches (HR =1.2) and lowest with posterolateral approach (HR =1). For all approaches, 32-mm heads reduced the risk of revision for dislocation compared to 22- to 28-mm heads (HR =1 and 1.6, respectively), while the risk of revision for other causes remained unchanged. 36-mm heads increasingly reduced the risk of revision for dislocation but only with the posterolateral approach (HR =0.6), while the risk of revision for other reasons was unchanged. With the anterior approach, 36-mm heads increased the risk of revision for other reasons (HR =1.5). Interpretation Compared to the posterolateral approach, direct anterior and anterolateral approaches reduce the risk of revision for dislocation, but at the cost of more stem revisions and other revisions. For all approaches, there is benefit in using 32-mm heads instead of 22- to 28-mm heads. For the posterolateral approach, 36-mm heads can safely further reduce the risk of revision for dislocation. PMID:28440704

A promising approach for the recovery of high value-added metals from spent lithium-ion batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Juntao; Zhang, Jialiang; Li, Hongxu; Chen, Yongqiang; Wang, Chengyan

2017-05-01

The aim of the paper is to present a promising approach for recycling high value-added metals from the cathode materials of spent LIBs. The synthesis process of NCM cathode material enlightened us to apply reduction roasting to break LiNixCoyMnzO2 into simple compounds or metals. Accordingly, the effect of several factors such as temperature, carbon dosage and roasting time is assessed on the leaching efficiency of valuable metals. The roasted products are analyzed by XRD and SEM-EDS, and the results show that the cathode material after reduction roasting is primarily transformed into Li2CO3, Ni, Co and MnO. However, the solubility of Li2CO3 is relatively low, so carbonated water leaching is used to treat the roasted products. Then the filtrate is evaporated for the preparation of pure Li2CO3, and residue is leached to recycle other metals with H2SO4. The results indicate that, after roasted at 650 °C for 3 h with 19.9% carbon dosage, 84.7% Li is preferentially recovered via carbonated water leaching, and more than 99% Ni, Co and Mn are recycled via acid leaching without adding reductant. Finally, the products of Li2CO3, NiSO4, CoSO4 and MnSO4 are obtained. The process have great potential for industrial-scale recycling from spent LIBs.

Hybrid Packet-Pheromone-Based Probabilistic Routing for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashkouli Nejad, Keyvan; Shawish, Ahmed; Jiang, Xiaohong; Horiguchi, Susumu

Ad-Hoc networks are collections of mobile nodes communicating using wireless media without any fixed infrastructure. Minimal configuration and quick deployment make Ad-Hoc networks suitable for emergency situations like natural disasters or military conflicts. The current Ad-Hoc networks can only support either high mobility or high transmission rate at a time because they employ static approaches in their routing schemes. However, due to the continuous expansion of the Ad-Hoc network size, node-mobility and transmission rate, the development of new adaptive and dynamic routing schemes has become crucial. In this paper we propose a new routing scheme to support high transmission rates and high node-mobility simultaneously in a big Ad-Hoc network, by combining a new proposed packet-pheromone-based approach with the Hint Based Probabilistic Protocol (HBPP) for congestion avoidance with dynamic path selection in packet forwarding process. Because of using the available feedback information, the proposed algorithm does not introduce any additional overhead. The extensive simulation-based analysis conducted in this paper indicates that the proposed algorithm offers small packet-latency and achieves a significantly higher delivery probability in comparison with the available Hint-Based Probabilistic Protocol (HBPP).

How redesigning AD clinical trials might increase study partners’ willingness to participate

PubMed Central

Karlawish, Jason; Cary, Mark S.; Rubright, Jonathan; TenHave, Tom

2008-01-01

Background: Timely recruiting and retaining participants into Alzheimer disease (AD) clinical trials is a challenge. We used conjoint analysis to identify how alterations in attributes of clinical trial design improve willingness to participate: risk, home visits, car service, or increased chance of receiving intervention. Method: A total of 108 study partners of patients with very mild to severe stage AD rated willingness to allow their relative to participate in eight clinical trials that varied combinations of the four attributes. Results: The highest utility was for home visits (0.89) which essentially compensated for the disutility of high risk (−0.85). The combination of home visits and car service was redundant, with almost no increase in utility over home visits alone. Seventeen percent were willing to participate in a trial with no amenities; the addition of home visits increased predicted willingness to participate to 27%; low risk, home visits, and higher chance of active treatment increased predicted willingness to 60%. The value of reducing the hassles of travel correlated well with measures of AD severity (activities of daily living r = 0.41, p < 0.001; basic activities of daily living r = 0.38, p < 0.001; Neuropsychiatric Inventory severity p = 0.24, p = 0.01; Neuropsychiatric Inventory distress r = 0.23, p < 0.02). No association was found between degree of study partner burden and willingness to tolerate risk of an intervention. Conclusion: Clinical trials that reduce travel inconvenience may offset the disincentive of study features such as the risk of intervention and may also increase willingness to participate. Redesigning trials may also help recruit patients with more severe Alzheimer disease. Shorter recruitment periods and increased retention rates may offset costs of these changes. GLOSSARY AD = Alzheimer disease; BLUP = best linear unbiased prediction; RAQ = Research Attitude Questionnaire. PMID:19047560

Feasibility of Predicting MCI/AD Using Neuropsychological Tests and Serum β-Amyloid

PubMed Central

Luis, Cheryl A.; Abdullah, Laila; Ait-Ghezala, Ghania; Mouzon, Benoit; Keegan, Andrew P.; Crawford, Fiona; Mullan, Michael

2011-01-01

We examined the usefulness of brief neuropsychological tests and serum Aβ as a predictive test for detecting MCI/AD in older adults. Serum Aβ levels were measured from 208 subjects who were cognitively normal at enrollment and blood draw. Twenty-eight of the subjects subsequently developed MCI (n = 18) or AD (n = 10) over the follow-up period. Baseline measures of global cognition, memory, language fluency, and serum Aβ1–42 and the ratio of serum Aβ1–42/Aβ1–40 were significant predictors for future MCI/AD using Cox regression with demographic variables, APOE ε4, vascular risk factors, and specific medication as covariates. An optimal sensitivity of 85.2% and specificity of 86.5% for predicting MCI/AD was achieved using ROC analyses. Brief neuropsychological tests and measurements of Aβ1–42 obtained via blood warrants further study as a practical and cost effective method for wide-scale screening for identifying older adults who may be at-risk for pathological cognitive decline. PMID:21660215

An Experimental Study of Men's and Women's Personal Ads.

PubMed

Strassberg, Donald S; English, Brittany L

2015-11-01

Personal ads have long served as a potentially rich source of information for social scientists regarding what women and men appear to be looking for in a partner and what they believe potential partners are looking for in them. Almost every study of this type has content analyzed existing personal ads in print media or, more recently, on the Internet. Many of the limits of this research approach were addressed in a study by Strassberg and Holty (2003) utilizing an experimental research design. Contrary to theory, prior research, and prediction, the most popular female seeking male (FSM) ad in that study was one in which the woman described herself as "financially independent, successful [and] ambitious," producing over 50 % more responses than the next most popular ad, describing the writer as "very attractive and slim." The present study replicated the Strassberg and Holty methodology, placing the same fictitious MSF and FSM personal ads using far more accessible Internet personal ad sites. Contrary to the previous finding, but consistent with evolutionary theories and social psychological experiments (e.g., Townsend & Wasserman, 1998), ads that presented the woman as attractive and the man as financially successful elicited the most interest.

Evaluating Special Educator Effectiveness: Addressing Issues Inherent to Value-Added Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinbrecher, Trisha D.; Selig, James P.; Cosbey, Joanna; Thorstensen, Beata I.

2014-01-01

States are increasingly using value-added approaches to evaluate teacher effectiveness. There is much debate regarding whether these methods should be employed and, if employed, what role such methods should play in comprehensive teacher evaluation systems. In this article, we consider the use of value-added modeling (VAM) to evaluate special…

Periodontal Management by Risk Assessment: A Pragmatic Approach.

PubMed

Mullins, Joanna M; Even, Joshua B; White, Joel M

2016-06-01

An evidence-based periodontal disease risk assessment and diagnosis system has been developed and combined with a clinical decision support and management program to improve treatment and measure patient outcomes. There is little agreement on a universally accepted periodontal risk assessment, periodontal diagnosis, and treatment management tool and their incorporation into dental practice to improve patient care. This article highlights the development and use of a practical periodontal management and risk assessment program that can be implemented in dental settings. The approach taken by Willamette Dental Group to develop a periodontal disease risk assessment, periodontal diagnosis, and treatment management tool is described using evidence-based best practices. With goals of standardized treatment interventions while maintaining personalized care and improved communication, this process is described to facilitate its incorporation into other dental settings. Current electronic health records can be leveraged to enhance patient-centered care through the use of risk assessments and standardized guidelines to more effectively assess, diagnose, and treat patients to improve outcomes. Dental hygienists, and other committed providers, with their emphasis on prevention of periodontal disease can be principal drivers in creation and implementation of periodontal risk assessments and personalized treatment planning. Willamette Dental Group believes that such evidence-based tools can advance dentistry to new diagnostic and treatment standards. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

PubMed

Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty

2013-09-01

Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Combining risk markers improves cardiovascular risk prediction in women.

PubMed

Holewijn, Suzanne; den Heijer, Martin; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Stalenhoef, Anton F H; de Graaf, Jacqueline

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular risk stratification could be improved by adding measures of atherosclerosis to current risk scores, especially in intermediate-risk individuals. We prospectively evaluated the additive value of different non-invasive risk markers (both individual and combined) for gender-specific cardiovascular risk stratification on top of traditional risk factors in a middle-aged population-based cohort. Carotid-plaques, IMT (intima-media thickness), ABI (ankle-brachial index), PWV (pulse-wave velocity), AIx (augmentation index), CAP (central augmented pressure) and CSP (central-systolic pressure) were measured in 1367 CVD (cardiovascular disease)-free participants aged 50-70 years old. Cardiovascular events were validated after a mean follow-up of 3.8 years. AUC (area-under-the-curve) and NRI (net reclassification improvement) analyses (total-NRI for all and clinical-NRI for intermediate-risk groups) were used to determine the additive value of individual and combined risk markers. Cardiovascular events occurred in 32 women and 39 men. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors explained 6.2% and 12.5% of the variance in CVD in women and men respectively. AUCs did not substantially increase by adding individual or combined non-invasive risk markers. Individual risk markers only improved reclassification in intermediate-risk women and more than in men; clinical-NRIs ranged between 48.0 and 173.1% in women and 8.9 and 20% in men. Combined non-invasive-risk markers improved reclassification in all women and even more in those at intermediate risk; 'IMT-presence-thickness-of-plaques' showed largest reclassification [total-NRI=33.8%, P=0.012; IDI (integrated-discrimination-improvement)=0.048, P=0.066; clinical-NRI=168.0%]. In men, combined non-invasive risk markers improved reclassification only in those at intermediate risk; 'PWV-AIx-CSP-CAP-IMT' showed the largest reclassification (total-NRI=14.5%, P=0.087; IDI=0.016, P=0.148; clinical-NRI=46.0%). In all women

A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

PubMed

de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

2016-04-01

A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. © 2015 The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia Registry: Recruitment and prescreening approach for a longitudinal cohort and prevention trials.

PubMed

Vermunt, Lisa; Veal, Colin D; Ter Meulen, Lea; Chrysostomou, Charalambos; van der Flier, Wiesje; Frisoni, Giovanni B; Guessous, Idris; Kivipelto, Miia; Marizzoni, Moira; Martinez-Lage, Pablo; Molinuevo, José Luis; Porteous, David; Ritchie, Karen; Scheltens, Philip; Ousset, Pierre-Jean; Ritchie, Craig W; Luscan, Gerald; Brookes, Anthony J; Visser, Pieter Jelle

2018-06-01

It is a challenge to find participants for Alzheimer's disease (AD) prevention trials within a short period of time. The European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia Registry (EPAD) aims to facilitate recruitment by preselecting subjects from ongoing cohort studies. This article introduces this novel approach. A virtual registry, with access to risk factors and biomarkers for AD through minimal data sets of ongoing cohort studies, was set up. To date, ten cohorts have been included in the EPAD. Around 2500 participants have been selected, using variables associated with the risk for AD. Of these, 15% were already recruited in the EPAD longitudinal cohort study, which serves as a trial readiness cohort. This study demonstrates that a virtual registry can be used for the preselection of participants for AD studies. Copyright © 2018 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vacuum degeneracy and Conformal Mass in Lovelock AdS gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arenas-Henriquez, Gabriel; Miskovic, Olivera; Olea, Rodrigo

2017-11-01

It is shown that the notion of Conformal Mass can be defined within a given anti-de Sitter (AdS) branch of a Lovelock gravity theory as long as the corresponding vacuum is not degenerate. Indeed, conserved charges obtained by the addition of Kounterterms to the bulk action turn out to be proportional to the electric part of the Weyl tensor, when the fall-off of a generic solution in that AdS branch is considered. The factor of proportionality is the degeneracy condition for the vacua in the particular Lovelock AdS theory under study. This last feature explains the obstruction to define Conformal Mass in the degenerate case.

Added sugar intake in South Africa: findings from the Adult Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology cohort study.

PubMed

Vorster, Hester H; Kruger, Annamarie; Wentzel-Viljoen, Edelweiss; Kruger, H Salome; Margetts, Barrie M

2014-06-01

Obesity and other noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factors are increasing in low- and middle-income countries. There are few data on the association between increased added sugar intake and NCD risk in these countries. We assessed the relation between added sugar intake and NCD risk factors in an African cohort study. Added sugars were defined as all monosaccharides and disaccharides added to foods and beverages during processing, cooking, and at the table. We conducted a 5-y follow-up of a cohort of 2010 urban and rural men and women aged 30-70 y of age at recruitment in 2005 from the North West Province in South Africa. Added sugar intake, particularly in rural areas, has increased rapidly in the past 5 y. In rural areas, the proportion of adults who consumed sucrose-sweetened beverages approximately doubled (for men, from 25% to 56%; for women, from 33% to 63%) in the past 5 y. After adjustment, subjects who consumed more added sugars (≥10% energy from added sugars) compared with those who consumed less added sugars had a higher waist circumference [mean difference (95% CI): 1.07 cm (0.35, 1.79 cm)] and body mass index (in kg/m²) [0.43 (0.12, 0.74)] and lower HDL cholesterol [-0.08 mmol/L (-0.14, 0.002 mmol/L)]. This cohort showed dramatic increases in added sugars and sucrose-sweetened beverage consumption in both urban and rural areas. Increased consumption was associated with increased NCD risk factors. In addition, the study showed that the nutrition transition has reached a remote rural area in South Africa. Urgent action is needed to address these trends. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

Mutual relationship between Tau and central insulin signalling: consequences for AD and Tauopathies ?

PubMed

Gratuze, Maud; Joly-Amado, Aurélie; Vieau, Didier; Buée, Luc; Blum, David

2018-02-13

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder mainly characterized by cognitive deficits and neuropathological changes such as Tau lesions and amyloid plaques, but also associated with non-cognitive symptomatology. Metabolic and neuroendocrine abnormalities, such as alterations in body weight, brain insulin impairments and lower brain glucose metabolism, that often precede clinical diagnosis, have been extensively reported in AD patients. However, the origin of these symptoms and their relation to pathology and cognitive impairments remain misunderstood. Insulin is a hormone involved in the control of energy homeostasis both peripherally and centrally, and insulin resistant state has been linked to increased risk of dementia. It is now well established that insulin resistance can exacerbate Tau lesions, mainly by disrupting the balance between Tau kinases and phosphatases. On the other hand, emerging literature indicates that Tau protein can also modulate insulin signalling in the brain, thus creating a detrimental vicious circle. The following review will highlight our current understanding on the role of insulin in the brain and its relation to Tau protein in the context of AD and Tauopathies. Considering that insulin signaling is prone to be pharmacologically targeted at multiple levels, it constitutes an appealing approach to improve both insulin brain sensitivity and mitigate brain pathology with expected positive outcome in term of cognition.
. ©2018S. Karger AG, Basel.

Risk analysis with a fuzzy-logic approach of a complex installation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peikert, Tim; Garbe, Heyno; Potthast, Stefan

2016-09-01

This paper introduces a procedural method based on fuzzy logic to analyze systematic the risk of an electronic system in an intentional electromagnetic environment (IEME). The method analyzes the susceptibility of a complex electronic installation with respect to intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI). It combines the advantages of well-known techniques as fault tree analysis (FTA), electromagnetic topology (EMT) and Bayesian networks (BN) and extends the techniques with an approach to handle uncertainty. This approach uses fuzzy sets, membership functions and fuzzy logic to handle the uncertainty with probability functions and linguistic terms. The linguistic terms add to the risk analysis the knowledge from experts of the investigated system or environment.

'Alzheimer's Progression Score': Development of a Biomarker Summary Outcome for AD Prevention Trials.

PubMed

Leoutsakos, J-M; Gross, A L; Jones, R N; Albert, M S; Breitner, J C S

2016-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) prevention research requires methods for measurement of disease progression not yet revealed by symptoms. Preferably, such measurement should encompass multiple disease markers. Evaluate an item response theory (IRT) model-based latent variable Alzheimer Progression Score (APS) that uses multi-modal disease markers to estimate pre-clinical disease progression. Estimate APS scores in the BIOCARD observational study, and in the parallel PREVENT-AD Cohort and its sister INTREPAD placebo-controlled prevention trial. Use BIOCARD data to evaluate whether baseline and early APS trajectory predict later progression to MCI/dementia. Similarly, use longitudinal PREVENT-AD data to assess test measurement invariance over time. Further, assess portability of the PREVENT-AD IRT model to baseline INTREPAD data, and explore model changes when CSF markers are added or withdrawn. BIOCARD was established in 1995 and participants were followed up to 20 years in Baltimore, USA. The PREVENT-AD and INTREPAD trial cohorts were established between 2011-2015 in Montreal, Canada, using nearly identical entry criteria to enroll high-risk cognitively normal persons aged 60+ then followed for several years. 349 cognitively normal, primarily middle-aged participants in BIOCARD, 125 high-risk participants aged 60+ in PREVENT-AD, and 217 similar subjects in INTREPAD. 106 INTREPAD participants donated up to four serial CSF samples. Global cognitive assessment and multiple structural, functional, and diffusion MRI metrics, sensori-neural tests, and CSF concentrations of tau, Aβ42 and their ratio. Both baseline values and early slope of APS scores in BIOCARD predicted later progression to MCI or AD. Presence of CSF variables strongly improved such prediction. A similarly derived APS in PREVENT-AD showed measurement invariance over time and portability to the parallel INTREPAD sample. An IRT-based APS can summarize multimodal information to provide a longitudinal measure of

Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

PubMed

Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

2014-08-01

Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions.

A Group Based Key Sharing and Management Algorithm for Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks

PubMed Central

Moharram, Mohammed Morsi; Azam, Farzana

2014-01-01

Vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) are one special type of ad hoc networks that involves vehicles on roads. Typically like ad hoc networks, broadcast approach is used for data dissemination. Blind broadcast to each and every node results in exchange of useless and irrelevant messages and hence creates an overhead. Unicasting is not preferred in ad-hoc networks due to the dynamic topology and the resource requirements as compared to broadcasting. Simple broadcasting techniques create several problems on privacy, disturbance, and resource utilization. In this paper, we propose media mixing algorithm to decide what information should be provided to each user and how to provide such information. Results obtained through simulation show that fewer number of keys are needed to share compared to simple broadcasting. Privacy is also enhanced through this approach. PMID:24587749

Adding Perspective: Predicting Adolescent Sunscreen Use with an Extended Health Action Process Approach.

PubMed

Schüz, Natalie; Schüz, Benjamin; Eid, Michael

2016-07-01

Diseases such as skin cancer often have a very long latency period. For adolescents, especially, it may be difficult to grasp that current risk behavior is related to future health outcomes. This study examines the role of health-related time perspective (i.e. the degree to which short-term outcomes are discounted over long-time health benefits) within the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA). More specifically, based on expectancy*value theory, we tested whether time perspective interacts with self-efficacy, the central variable in this approach. A longitudinal study with three measurement points across one year assessed 156 high school students. Data were analyzed using structural equation models. While time perspective had no direct association with sunscreen use intentions, there was an interaction effect with self-efficacy; the shorter the time perspective, the smaller the association of self-efficacy with intention. Intention in turn predicted planning and sunscreen use at Time 3 (one year later). In order to maximise the impact of early onset measures for skin cancer prevention targeting the motivation for sunscreen use in adolescents, time perspective should be addressed in comprehensive sun protection interventions. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Fructose induces prothrombotic phenotype in human endothelial cells : A new role for "added sugar" in cardio-metabolic risk.

PubMed

Cirillo, Plinio; Pellegrino, Grazia; Conte, Stefano; Maresca, Fabio; Pacifico, Francesco; Leonardi, Antonio; Trimarco, Bruno

2015-11-01

Intake of large amounts of added sweeteners has been associated with the pathogenesis of cardiometabolic risk. Several studies have shown that fructose increases the cardiovascular risk by modulating endothelial dysfunction and promoting atherosclerosis. Recently, a potential role for fructose in cardiovascular thrombosis has been suggested but with controversial results. Tissue factor (TF) plays a pivotal role in the pathophysiology of cardiovascular thrombosis by triggering the formation of intracoronary thrombi following endothelial injury. This study investigates the effects of fructose, in a concentration range usually observed in the plasma of patients with increased cardiovascular risk, on TF in human umbilical endothelial cells (HUVECs). Cells were stimulated with increasing concentrations of fructose (0.25, 1 and 2.5 mM) and then processed to evaluate TF-mRNA levels by real-time PCR as well as TF expression/activity by FACS analysis and procoagulant activity. Finally, a potential molecular pathway involved in modulating this phenomenon was investigated. We demonstrate that fructose induces transcription of mRNA for TF. In addition, we show that this monosaccharide promotes surface expression of TF that is functionally active. Fructose effects on TF appear modulated by the oxygen free radicals through activation of the transcription factor NF-κB since superoxide dismutase and NF-κB inhibitors suppressed TF expression. Data of the present study, although in vitro, indicate that fructose, besides promoting atherosclerosis, induces a prothrombotic phenotype in HUVECs, thus indicating one the mechanism(s) by which this sweetener might increase cardiometabolic risk.

Towards an integrated approach to natural hazards risk assessment using GIS: with reference to bushfires.

PubMed

Chen, Keping; Blong, Russell; Jacobson, Carol

2003-04-01

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.

Plenary lecture: innovative modeling approaches applicable to risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Proper identification of safe and unsafe food at the processing plant is important for maximizing the public health benefit of food by ensuring both its consumption and safety. Risk assessment is a holistic approach to food safety that consists of four steps: 1) hazard identification; 2) exposure a...

Pharmacogenomic Approaches for Automated Medication Risk Assessment in People with Polypharmacy

PubMed Central

Liu, Jiazhen; Friedman, Carol; Finkelstein, Joseph

2018-01-01

Abstract Medication regimen may be optimized based on individual drug efficacy identified by pharmacogenomic testing. However, majority of current pharmacogenomic decision support tools provide assessment only of single drug-gene interactions without taking into account complex drug-drug and drug-drug-gene interactions which are prevalent in people with polypharmacy and can result in adverse drug events or insufficient drug efficacy. The main objective of this project was to develop comprehensive pharmacogenomic decision support for medication risk assessment in people with polypharmacy that simultaneously accounts for multiple drug and gene effects. To achieve this goal, the project addressed two aims: (1) development of comprehensive knowledge repository of actionable pharmacogenes; (2) introduction of scoring approaches reflecting potential adverse effect risk levels of complex medication regimens accounting for pharmacogenomic polymorphisms and multiple drug metabolizing pathways. After pharmacogenomic knowledge repository was introduced, a scoring algorithm has been built and pilot-tested using a limited data set. The resulting total risk score for frequently hospitalized older adults with polypharmacy (72.04±17.84) was statistically significantly different (p<0.05) from the total risk score for older adults with polypharmacy with low hospitalization rate (8.98±2.37). An initial prototype assessment demonstrated feasibility of our approach and identified steps for improving risk scoring algorithms.

Risk profiles of Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Bilbul, Melanie; Schipper, Hyman M

2011-07-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) is a dementing, neurodegenerative disorder that affects approximately 500,000 Canadians and its prevalence is expected to double over the next 30 years. Although several medications may temporarily augment cognitive abilities in AD, there presently exists no proven method to avoid the inevitable clinical deterioration in this devastating condition. The delineation of risk factors for the development of AD offers hope for the advent of effective prevention or interventions that might retard the onset of symptoms. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of midlife risk factors implicated in the etiopathogenesis of sporadic AD. Although some risk factors are heritable and largely beyond our control, others are determined by lifestyle or environment and are potentially modifiable. In a companion paper, we introduce the concept of an Alzheimer Risk Assessment Clinic for ascertainment and mitigation of these and other putative dementia risk factors in middle-aged adults.

[Risk-taking in adolescence: A neuroeconomics approach].

PubMed

Barbalat, G; Domenech, P; Vernet, M; Fourneret, P

2010-04-01

Risk-taking behaviors represent the main cause of morbi-mortality in adolescence. Here, we analyze their neural correlates, based on a neuroeconomics approach. This approach postulates that risk-taking behaviors result from multiple decision-making biases that impair the selection of the most appropriate action among alternatives based on their subjective evaluation. Specifically, we investigate three important domains in value-based decision-making: risk aversion, loss aversion and intertemporal choice. First, when people have to make a decision between two rewarding options, they will usually prefer the more certain, even possibly lower, option - a phenomenon called "risk aversion". Yet adolescent people have been found to be less averse to risk than adults. This observation was linked to hypoactivation in (1) the anterior insula, involved in negative emotion such as fear and disgust and (2) the anterior cingular and the posterior ventromedial prefrontal cortices, involved in the monitoring of conflict and error detection. Second, people are generally described as being more sensitive to the possibility of losing objects than to that of gaining the same objects - "loss aversion". Here, we suggest that adolescents may be less averse to losses than adults when estimating the prospects of gaining and losing objects. Indeed, adolescent people have been found to be more affected by reward (e.g. euphoria or social integration consecutive to drug absorption) and less affected by punishment (e.g. malaise after drug consumption) than adults. Whereas the former process is subserved by hyperactivations in regions involved in reward evaluation such as the nucleus accumbens, the latter has been proposed to be subserved by hypoactivations in regions involved in negative emotions such as the amygdala or the insular cortex. This lower sensitivity to losses compared to gains in adolescents could be another important mechanism underlying risk-taking behaviors. A third dimension of

Risk management measures for chemicals: the "COSHH essentials" approach.

PubMed

Garrod, A N I; Evans, P G; Davy, C W

2007-12-01

"COSHH essentials" was developed in Great Britain to help duty holders comply with the Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Regulations. It uses a similar approach to that described in the new European "REACH" Regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals; EC No. 1907/2006 of the European Parliament), insofar as it identifies measures for managing the risk for specified exposure scenarios. It can therefore assist REACH duty holders with the identification and communication of appropriate risk-management measures. The technical basis for COSHH essentials is explained in the original papers published in the Annals of Occupational Hygiene. Its details will, therefore, not be described here; rather, its ability to provide a suitable means for communicating risk-management measures will be explored. COSHH essentials is a simple tool based on an empirical approach to risk assessment and risk management. The output is a "Control Guidance Sheet" that lists the "dos" and "don'ts" for control in a specific task scenario. The guidance in COSHH essentials recognises that exposure in the workplace will depend not just on mechanical controls, but also on a number of other factors, including administrative and behavioural controls, such as systems of work, supervision and training. In 2002, COSHH essentials was made freely available via the internet (http://www.coshh-essentials.org.uk/). This electronic delivery enabled links to be made between product series that share tasks, such as drum filling, and with ancillary guidance, such as setting up health surveillance for work with a respiratory sensitiser. COSHH essentials has proved to be a popular tool for communicating good control practice. It has attracted over 1 million visits to its site since its launch. It offers a common benchmark of good practice for chemical users, manufacturers, suppliers and importers, as well as regulators and health professionals.

Diffusion and chaos from near AdS 2 horizons

DOE PAGES

Blake, Mike; Donos, Aristomenis

2017-02-03

We calculate the thermal diffusivity D =more » $$\\kappa/c_\\rho$$ and butterfy velocity $$\\upsilon_\\beta$$ in holographic models that flow to $$AdS_2$$ x $R^d$ fixed points in the infra-red. We show that both these quantities are governed by the same irrelevant deformation of $$AdS_2$$ and hence establish a simple relationship between them. When this deformation corresponds to a universal dilaton mode of dimension $$\\Delta$$ = 2 then this relationship is always given by D = $$\\upsilon_B^2$$/(2$$\\pi$$T).« less

Multicasting in Wireless Communications (Ad-Hoc Networks): Comparison against a Tree-Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizos, G. E.; Vasiliadis, D. C.

2007-12-01

We examine on-demand multicasting in ad hoc networks. The Core Assisted Mesh Protocol (CAMP) is a well-known protocol for multicast routing in ad-hoc networks, generalizing the notion of core-based trees employed for internet multicasting into multicast meshes that have much richer connectivity than trees. On the other hand, wireless tree-based multicast routing protocols use much simpler structures for determining route paths, using only parent-child relationships. In this work, we compare the performance of the CAMP protocol against the performance of wireless tree-based multicast routing protocols, in terms of two important factors, namely packet delay and ratio of dropped packets.

Geometry and supersymmetry of heterotic warped flux AdS backgrounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, S.; Gutowski, J.; Papadopoulos, G.

2015-07-01

We classify the geometries of the most general warped, flux AdS backgrounds of heterotic supergravity up to two loop order in sigma model perturbation theory. We show under some mild assumptions that there are no AdS n backgrounds with n ≠ 3. Moreover the warp factor of AdS3 backgrounds is constant, the geometry is a product AdS 3 × M 7 and such solutions preserve, 2, 4, 6 and 8 supersymmetries. The geometry of M 7 has been specified in all cases. For 2 supersymmetries, it has been found that M 7 admits a suitably restricted G 2 structure. For 4 supersymmetries, M 7 has an SU(3) structure and can be described locally as a circle fibration over a 6-dimensional KT manifold. For 6 and 8 supersymmetries, M 7 has an SU(2) structure and can be described locally as a S 3 fibration over a 4-dimensional manifold which either has an anti-self dual Weyl tensor or a hyper-Kähler structure, respectively. We also demonstrate a new Lichnerowicz type theorem in the presence of α' corrections.

[Value-Added--Adding Economic Value in the Food Industry].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Welch, Mary A., Ed.

1989-01-01

This booklet focuses on the economic concept of "value added" to goods and services. A student activity worksheet illustrates how the steps involved in processing food are examples of the concept of value added. The booklet further links food processing to the idea of value added to the Gross National Product (GNP). Discussion questions,…

GWAS of cerebrospinal fluid tau levels identifies risk variants for Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Cruchaga, Carlos; Kauwe, John S K; Harari, Oscar; Jin, Sheng Chih; Cai, Yefei; Karch, Celeste M; Benitez, Bruno A; Jeng, Amanda T; Skorupa, Tara; Carrell, David; Bertelsen, Sarah; Bailey, Matthew; McKean, David; Shulman, Joshua M; De Jager, Philip L; Chibnik, Lori; Bennett, David A; Arnold, Steve E; Harold, Denise; Sims, Rebecca; Gerrish, Amy; Williams, Julie; Van Deerlin, Vivianna M; Lee, Virginia M-Y; Shaw, Leslie M; Trojanowski, John Q; Haines, Jonathan L; Mayeux, Richard; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Farrer, Lindsay A; Schellenberg, Gerard D; Peskind, Elaine R; Galasko, Douglas; Fagan, Anne M; Holtzman, David M; Morris, John C; Goate, Alison M

2013-04-24

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tau, tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (ptau), and Aβ₄₂ are established biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and have been used as quantitative traits for genetic analyses. We performed the largest genome-wide association study for cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tau/ptau levels published to date (n = 1,269), identifying three genome-wide significant loci for CSF tau and ptau: rs9877502 (p = 4.89 × 10⁻⁹ for tau) located at 3q28 between GEMC1 and OSTN, rs514716 (p = 1.07 × 10⁻⁸ and p = 3.22 × 10⁻⁹ for tau and ptau, respectively), located at 9p24.2 within GLIS3 and rs6922617 (p = 3.58 × 10⁻⁸ for CSF ptau) at 6p21.1 within the TREM gene cluster, a region recently reported to harbor rare variants that increase AD risk. In independent data sets, rs9877502 showed a strong association with risk for AD, tangle pathology, and global cognitive decline (p = 2.67 × 10⁻⁴, 0.039, 4.86 × 10⁻⁵, respectively) illustrating how this endophenotype-based approach can be used to identify new AD risk loci. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk aversion and risk seeking in multicriteria forest management: a Markov decision process approach

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou; Craig Johnston

2017-01-01

Markov decision process models were extended to reflect some consequences of the risk attitude of forestry decision makers. One approach consisted of maximizing the expected value of a criterion subject to an upper bound on the variance or, symmetrically, minimizing the variance subject to a lower bound on the expected value.  The other method used the certainty...

Recall of health warnings in smokeless tobacco ads.

PubMed

Truitt, Linda; Hamilton, William L; Johnston, P R; Bacani, C P; Crawford, S O; Hozik, L; Celebucki, Carolyn

2002-06-01

To determine the effects of health warning characteristics in smokeless tobacco magazine print ads on warning recall, and the implications for current US Federal regulations. Subjects examined two distracter ads and one of nine randomly assigned smokeless tobacco ads varying in health warning presence, size (8 to 18 point font), and contrast (low versus high)-including no health warning. They were then interviewed about ad content using recall and recognition questions. A convenience sample of 895 English speaking males aged 16-24 years old who were intercepted at seven shopping malls throughout Massachusetts during May 2000. Proven aided recall, or recall of a health warning and correct recognition of the warning message among distracters, and false recall. Controlling for covariates such as education, employment/student status, and Hispanic background, proven aided recall increased significantly with font size; doubling size from 10 to 20 point font would increase recall from 63% to 76%. Although not statistically significant, recall was somewhat better for high contrast warnings. Ten per cent of the sample mistakenly recalled the warning where none existed. As demonstrated by substantially greater recall among ads that included health warnings over ads that had none, health warnings retained their value to consumers despite years of exposure (that can produce false recall). Larger health warnings would enhance recall, and the proposed model can be used to estimate potential recall that affects communication, perceived health risk, and behaviour modification.

Peer Relationship Problems of Children with AD/HD: Risk Factors and New Directions in Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ozdemir, Selda

2009-01-01

This review integrates and evaluates research conducted on possible contributing factors to peer relationship problems of children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (AD/HD). Substantial evidence suggests that children with AD/HD have serious problems in multiple aspects of their relationships with peers. Difficulties resulting from…

Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism – a practical approach

PubMed Central

Fahrni, Jennifer; Husmann, Marc; Gretener, Silvia B; Keo, Hong H

2015-01-01

Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice. PMID:26316770

Thermodynamic and classical instability of AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myung, Yun Soo; Moon, Taeyoon

2014-04-01

We study thermodynamic and classical instability of AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity. These include the BTZ black hole in new massive gravity, Schwarzschild-AdS black hole, and higher-dimensional AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity. All thermo-dynamic quantities which are computed using the Abbot-Deser-Tekin method are used to study thermodynamic instability of AdS black holes. On the other hand, we investigate the s-mode Gregory-Laflamme instability of the massive graviton propagating around the AdS black holes. We establish the connection between the thermodynamic instability and the GL instability of AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity. This shows that the Gubser-Mitra conjecture holds for AdS black holes found from fourth-order gravity.

Evaluation of Two Approaches to Defining Extinction Risk under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

PubMed

Thompson, Grant G; Maguire, Lynn A; Regan, Tracey J

2018-05-01

The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the "time horizon"). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion. Ranges of tentative values for the parameters of the two approaches are proposed, and the performances of the two approaches are compared and contrasted for a small set of real-world species with published extinction time distributions and a large set of hypothetical extinction time distributions. Potential issues with each approach are evaluated, and the EL approach is recommended as the better of the two. The CDF approach suffers from the fact that extinctions that occur at any time before the specified time horizon are weighted equally, while extinctions that occur beyond the specified time horizon receive no weight at all. It also suffers from the fact that the time horizon does not correspond to any natural phenomenon, and so is impossible to specify nonarbitrarily; yet the results can depend critically on the specified value. In contrast, the EL approach has the advantage of weighting extinction time continuously, with no artificial time horizon, and the parameters of the approach (the rates of time preference and risk aversion) do correspond to natural phenomena, and so can be specified nonarbitrarily. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A moni-modelling approach to manage groundwater risk to pesticide leaching at regional scale.

PubMed

Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

2016-03-01

Historically, the approach used to manage risk of chemical contamination of water bodies is based on the use of monitoring programmes, which provide a snapshot of the presence/absence of chemicals in water bodies. Monitoring is required in the current EU regulations, such as the Water Framework Directive (WFD), as a tool to record temporal variation in the chemical status of water bodies. More recently, a number of models have been developed and used to forecast chemical contamination of water bodies. These models combine information of chemical properties, their use, and environmental scenarios. Both approaches are useful for risk assessors in decision processes. However, in our opinion, both show flaws and strengths when taken alone. This paper proposes an integrated approach (moni-modelling approach) where monitoring data and modelling simulations work together in order to provide a common decision framework for the risk assessor. This approach would be very useful, particularly for the risk management of pesticides at a territorial level. It fulfils the requirement of the recent Sustainable Use of Pesticides Directive. In fact, the moni-modelling approach could be used to identify sensible areas where implement mitigation measures or limitation of use of pesticides, but even to effectively re-design future monitoring networks or to better calibrate the pedo-climatic input data for the environmental fate models. A case study is presented, where the moni-modelling approach is applied in Lombardy region (North of Italy) to identify groundwater vulnerable areas to pesticides. The approach has been applied to six active substances with different leaching behaviour, in order to highlight the advantages in using the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of atherogenic dyslipidemia: association with risk factors and cardiovascular risk in Spanish working population. "ICARIA" study.

PubMed

Cabrera, M; Sánchez-Chaparro, M A; Valdivielso, P; Quevedo-Aguado, L; Catalina-Romero, C; Fernández-Labandera, C; Ruiz-Moraga, M; González-Santos, P; Calvo-Bonacho, E

2014-08-01

The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of atherogenic dyslipidemia (AD) and the lipid triad (LT) in the working population in Spain, their associated variables and how far they are linked to cardiovascular risk (CVR). Observational cross-sectional study of 70,609 workers (71.5% male (M), 28.5% female (F), mean age 39.2 ± 10), who attended medical checkups and agreed to participate. Plasma samples were analysed in a central laboratory. AD definition used was: triglycerides ≥150 mg/dl and HDL cholesterol <40 mg/dl (M)/<50 mg/dl (F) and LT when LDL cholesterol > 160 mg/dl is further added. Univariate comparisons in the absence and presence of AD and LT and the probability of AD according to different parameters and their possible association with CVR were assessed. CVR was stratified following the European SCORE model for low risk-population. 5.7% (95% CI 4.7-6.9) of the working population have AD and 1.1% (95% CI 1.0-1.2) LT. In univariate analysis, workers with AD and LT had a higher prevalence of obesity, hypertension, smoking and diabetes than those who had not (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, BMI, sex, age 40-49, diabetes, tobacco, uric acid, LDL or blood pressure significantly influenced the risk of AD. AD was significantly associated with CVR after adjusting for alcohol and obesity. However, most of the AD subjects (91.8%) were classified as low risk. About 6% of the working population in Spain meets AD criteria. Assuming that these subjects have increased CVR, AD allows to identify additional 5% of subjects with increased CVR to that one the SCORE model detects, helping to improve cardiovascular risk stratification. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stability of Teacher Value-Added Rankings across Measurement Model and Scaling Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawley, Leslie R.; Bovaird, James A.; Wu, ChaoRong

2017-01-01

Value-added assessment methods have been criticized by researchers and policy makers for a number of reasons. One issue includes the sensitivity of model results across different outcome measures. This study examined the utility of incorporating multivariate latent variable approaches within a traditional value-added framework. We evaluated the…

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease induces signs of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in wild-type mice and accelerates pathological signs of AD in an AD model.

PubMed

Kim, Do-Geun; Krenz, Antje; Toussaint, Leon E; Maurer, Kirk J; Robinson, Sudie-Ann; Yan, Angela; Torres, Luisa; Bynoe, Margaret S

2016-01-05

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a chronic liver disease afflicting about one third of the world's population and 30 % of the US population. It is induced by consumption of high-lipid diets and is characterized by liver inflammation and subsequent liver pathology. Obesity and consumption of a high-fat diet are known to increase the risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here, we investigated NAFLD-induced liver inflammation in the pathogenesis of AD. WT and APP-Tg mice were fed with a standard diet (SD) or a high-fat diet (HFD) for 2, 5 months, or 1 year to induce NAFLD. Another set of APP-Tg mice were removed from HFD after 2 months and put back on SD for 3 months. During acute phase NAFLD, WT and APP-Tg mice developed significant liver inflammation and pathology that coincided with increased numbers of activated microglial cells in the brain, increased inflammatory cytokine profile, and increased expression of toll-like receptors. Chronic NAFLD induced advanced pathological signs of AD in both WT and APP-Tg mice, and also induced neuronal apoptosis. We observed decreased brain expression of low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein-1 (LRP-1) which is involved in β-amyloid clearance, in both WT and APP-Tg mice after ongoing administration of the HFD. LRP-1 expression correlated with advanced signs of AD over the course of chronic NAFLD. Removal of mice from HFD during acute NAFLD reversed liver pathology, decreased signs of activated microglial cells and neuro-inflammation, and decreased β-amyloid plaque load. Our findings indicate that chronic inflammation induced outside the brain is sufficient to induce neurodegeneration in the absence of genetic predisposition.

Risk-based approach for controlling beryllium exposure in a manufacturing environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilmore, W. E.; Clawson, C. D.; Ellis, K. K.

There are many diverse uses for beryllium in both military and industrial applications. Unfortunately, there are certain worker health risks associated with the manufacture and production of beryllium products. Respiratory illnesses due to prolonged contact with beryllium particulate are of paramount concern. However, these health risks can be controlled provided that the appropriate protective measures to prevent worker exposure from beryllium are in place. But it is no1 always a straightforward process to identify exactly what the beryllium protective measures should be in order to realize a true risk savings. Without prudent attention to a systematic inquiry and suitable evaluativemore » criteria, a program for controlling beryllium health risks can be lacking in completeness and overall effectiveness. One approach that took into account the necessary ingredients for risk-based determination of beryllium protective measures was developed for a beryllium operation at a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. The methodological framework that was applied at this facility, as well as a discussion of the final beryllium protective measures that were determined by this approach will be presented. Regulatory aspects for working with beryllium, as well as a risk-assessment strategy for ranking beryllium-handling activities with respect to exposure potential will also be discussed. The presentation will conclude with a synopsis of lessons-learned as gleaned from this case study, as well as providing the participants with a constructive blueprint that can be adapted to other processes involving beryllium.« less

Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

An ischemia-guided approach for risk stratification in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

PubMed

Pepine, C J

2000-12-28

The optimal management approach for patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes continues to be an issue of debate. An ischemia-guided strategy appears to be effective as an alternative to either a very conservative "wait-and-see" approach or a very aggressive routine revascularization approach. The need for another approach is supported by the lack of conclusive evidence-based results favoring an early routine invasive treatment strategy. In the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) IIIB trial, there were no differences in the incidence of death or myocardial infarction (MI) between patients treated with an early invasive approach and those treated with a conservative approach to treatment. Significantly worse outcomes were shown in patients assigned to an early invasive strategy in the Veterans Affairs Non-Q-Wave Infarction Strategies in Hospital (VANQWISH) trial at 1-year follow-up (111 clinical events in the invasive group vs 85 in the conservative group; p = 0.05). Registry information, including that from the Organization to Assess Strategies for Ischemic Syndromes (OASIS), which included approximately 8,000 patients with unstable angina or suspected MI, has even suggested an excess hazard with a routine invasive approach. Patients with non-ST-segment elevation MI observed in the Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Coronary Arteries in Acute Coronary Syndromes (GUSTO)-IIB and Platelet IIb/IIIa in Unstable Angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin Therapy (PURSUIT) trials also fared better with an ischemia-guided strategy. Even the recent FRagmin and Fast Revascularization during InStability in Coronary artery disease (FRISC II) trial investigators had to be very selective relative to eliminating high-risk patients in the first week and treating with intense anti-ischemic therapy and 5-7 days of low-molecular-weight heparin therapy to show an advantage for assigned revascularization. A careful clinical evaluation with

Minimizing cardiac risk in perioperative practice - interdisciplinary pharmacological approaches.

PubMed

Bock, Matthias; Wiedermann, Christian J; Motsch, Johann; Fritsch, Gerhard; Paulmichl, Markus

2011-07-01

In an aging population, major surgery is often performed in patients with complex co-morbidities. These patients present new risk constellations so that cardiac and respiratory complications mainly contribute to perioperative morbidity. We composed a narrative review on pharmacological approaches to cardiovascular protection in the perioperative period including effects of central neuraxial blocks and hypothermia on cardiovascular outcome. The single chapters are structured as follows: pathophysiology-early studies-recent evidence-recommendations. In coping with this challenge, innovative concepts like fast track surgery and pharmacological treatment are being utilized with increasing frequency including perioperative cardioprotection, novel strategies of anticoagulation or antiplatelet therapy, and protocols for postoperative pain therapy. All the concepts described require an interdisciplinary approach in collaboration between operative physicians and physicians working in non-surgical disciplines like internal medicine, cardiology, and clinical pharmacology. The perioperative continuation of a pre-existing therapy with beta-blockers and other potentially cardioprotective agents like α(2)-agonists and statines is recommended. In the management of patients presenting for major surgery stratification of the perioperative risk is essential which considers both, invasiveness of the surgical procedure and conditions of the patient. Otherwise, side-effects might outweigh benefits of a potentially effective therapy as recently shown for the perioperative administration of beta-blockers that should be restricted to high-risk patients.

Collapse and Nonlinear Instability of AdS Space with Angular Momentum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choptuik, Matthew W.; Dias, Óscar J. C.; Santos, Jorge E.; Way, Benson

2017-11-01

We present a numerical study of rotational dynamics in AdS5 with equal angular momenta in the presence of a complex doublet scalar field. We determine that the endpoint of gravitational collapse is a Myers-Perry black hole for high energies and a hairy black hole for low energies. We investigate the time scale for collapse at low energies E , keeping the angular momenta J ∝E in anti-de Sitter (AdS) length units. We find that the inclusion of angular momenta delays the collapse time, but retains a t ˜1 /E scaling. We perturb and evolve rotating boson stars, and find that boson stars near AdS space appear stable, but those sufficiently far from AdS space are unstable. We find that the dynamics of the boson star instability depend on the perturbation, resulting either in collapse to a Myers-Perry black hole, or development towards a stable oscillating solution.

Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

Risk management: FIFA's approach for protecting the health of football players.

PubMed

Fuller, Colin W; Junge, Astrid; Dvorak, Jiri

2012-01-01

Sport and exercise have long-term health benefits, but there is also a risk that participants will sustain injuries and/or ill health from these activities. For this reason, international sports governing bodies have a responsibility to identify the risks that exist within their sport and to provide guidance to participants and other stakeholders on how these risks can be controlled within acceptable levels. To demonstrate how Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), as football's governing body, uses a risk management framework to identify, quantify, mitigate and communicate the risks of injury and ill health in football for men, women and children in all environments. All the research papers published by FIFA's Medical Assessment and Research Centre (F-MARC) during the period 1994 to 2011 were reviewed and categorised according to an established sport-related risk management framework. F-MARC investigated and mitigated 17 areas of risk to footballers' health in a coherent and consistent approach through the process of risk management.

Long-term cortisol measures predict Alzheimer disease risk.

PubMed

Ennis, Gilda E; An, Yang; Resnick, Susan M; Ferrucci, Luigi; O'Brien, Richard J; Moffat, Scott D

2017-01-24

To examine whether long-term measures of cortisol predict Alzheimer disease (AD) risk. We used a prospective longitudinal design to examine whether cortisol dysregulation was related to AD risk. Participants were from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) and submitted multiple 24-hour urine samples over an average interval of 10.56 years. Urinary free cortisol (UFC) and creatinine (Cr) were measured, and a UFC/Cr ratio was calculated to standardize UFC. To measure cortisol regulation, we used within-person UFC/Cr level (i.e., within-person mean), change in UFC/Cr over time (i.e., within-person slope), and UFC/Cr variability (i.e., within-person coefficient of variation). Cox regression was used to assess whether UFC/Cr measures predicted AD risk. UFC/Cr level and UFC/Cr variability, but not UFC/Cr slope, were significant predictors of AD risk an average of 2.9 years before AD onset. Elevated UFC/Cr level and elevated UFC/Cr variability were related to a 1.31- and 1.38-times increase in AD risk, respectively. In a sensitivity analysis, increased UFC/Cr level and increased UFC/Cr variability predicted increased AD risk an average of 6 years before AD onset. Cortisol dysregulation as manifested by high UFC/Cr level and high UFC/Cr variability may modulate the downstream clinical expression of AD pathology or be a preclinical marker of AD. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

On information loss in AdS 3/CFT 2

DOE PAGES

Fitzpatrick, A. Liam; Kaplan, Jared; Li, Daliang; ...

2016-05-18

We discuss information loss from black hole physics in AdS 3, focusing on two sharp signatures infecting CFT 2 correlators at large central charge c: ‘forbidden singularities’ arising from Euclidean-time periodicity due to the effective Hawking temperature, and late-time exponential decay in the Lorentzian region. We study an infinite class of examples where forbidden singularities can be resolved by non-perturbative effects at finite c, and we show that the resolution has certain universal features that also apply in the general case. Analytically continuing to the Lorentzian regime, we find that the non-perturbative effects that resolve forbidden singularities qualitatively change themore » behavior of correlators at times t ~S BH, the black hole entropy. This may resolve the exponential decay of correlators at late times in black hole backgrounds. By Borel resumming the 1/c expansion of exact examples, we explicitly identify ‘information-restoring’ effects from heavy states that should correspond to classical solutions in AdS 3. Lastly, our results suggest a line of inquiry towards a more precise formulation of the gravitational path integral in AdS 3.« less

EXACT S-MATRICES FOR AdS3/CFT2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Changrim; Bombardelli, Diego

2013-12-01

We propose exact S-matrices for the AdS3/CFT2 duality between type IIB strings on AdS3×S3×M4 with M4 = S3×S1 or T4 and the corresponding two-dimensional conformal field theories. We fix the two-particle S-matrices on the basis of the symmetries su(1|1) and su(1|1)×su(1|1). A crucial justification comes from the derivation of the all-loop Bethe ansatz matching exactly the recent conjecture proposed by Babichenko et al. [J. High Energy Phys.1003, 058 (2010), arXiv:0912.1723 [hep-th

Minimal surfaces in AdS space and integrable systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrington, Benjamin A.; Gao, Peng

2010-04-01

We consider the Pohlmeyer reduction for spacelike minimal area worldsheets in AdS5. The Lax pair for the reduced theory is found, and written entirely in terms of the A3 = D3 root system, generalizing the B2 affine Toda system which appears for the AdS4 string. For the B2 affine Toda system, we show that the area of the worlsheet is obtainable from the moduli space Kähler potential of a related Hitchin system. We also explore the Saveliev-Leznov construction for solutions of the B2 affine Toda system, and recover the rotationally symmetric solution associated to Painleve transcendent.

Interactions between inflammation, sex steroids, and Alzheimer’s disease risk factors

PubMed Central

Uchoa, Mariana F.; Moser, V. Alexandra; Pike, Christian J.

2016-01-01

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is an age-related neurodegenerative disorder for which there are no effective strategies to prevent or slow its progression. Because AD is multifactorial, recent research has focused on understanding interactions among the numerous risk factors and mechanisms underlying the disease. One mechanism through which several risk factors may be acting is inflammation. AD is characterized by chronic inflammation that is observed before clinical onset of dementia. Several genetic and environmental risk factors for AD increase inflammation, including apolipoprotein E4, obesity, and air pollution. Additionally, sex steroid hormones appear to contribute to AD risk, with age-related losses of estrogens in women and androgens in men associated with increased risk. Importantly, sex steroid hormones have anti-inflammatory actions and can interact with several other AD risk factors. This review examines the individual and interactive roles of inflammation and sex steroid hormones in AD, as well as their relationships with the AD risk factors apolipoprotein E4, obesity, and air pollution. PMID:27651175

Recall of health warnings in smokeless tobacco ads

PubMed Central

Truitt, L; Hamilton, W; Johnston, P; Bacani, C; Crawford, S; Hozik, L; Celebucki, C

2002-01-01

Design: Subjects examined two distracter ads and one of nine randomly assigned smokeless tobacco ads varying in health warning presence, size (8 to 18 point font), and contrast (low versus high)—including no health warning. They were then interviewed about ad content using recall and recognition questions. Subjects: A convenience sample of 895 English speaking males aged 16–24 years old who were intercepted at seven shopping malls throughout Massachusetts during May 2000. Main outcome measures: Proven aided recall, or recall of a health warning and correct recognition of the warning message among distracters, and false recall. Results: Controlling for covariates such as education, employment/student status, and Hispanic background, proven aided recall increased significantly with font size; doubling size from 10 to 20 point font would increase recall from 63% to 76%. Although not statistically significant, recall was somewhat better for high contrast warnings. Ten per cent of the sample mistakenly recalled the warning where none existed. Conclusions: As demonstrated by substantially greater recall among ads that included health warnings over ads that had none, health warnings retained their value to consumers despite years of exposure (that can produce false recall). Larger health warnings would enhance recall, and the proposed model can be used to estimate potential recall that affects communication, perceived health risk, and behaviour modification. PMID:12034984

What's the point? Hole-ography in Poincaré AdS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espíndola, Ricardo; Güijosa, Alberto; Landetta, Alberto; Pedraza, Juan F.

2018-01-01

In the context of the AdS/CFT correspondence, we study bulk reconstruction of the Poincaré wedge of AdS_3 via hole-ography, i.e., in terms of differential entropy of the dual CFT_2. Previous work had considered the reconstruction of closed or open spacelike curves in global AdS, and of infinitely extended spacelike curves in Poincaré AdS that are subject to a periodicity condition at infinity. Working first at constant time, we find that a closed curve in Poincaré is described in the CFT by a family of intervals that covers the spatial axis at least twice. We also show how to reconstruct open curves, points and distances, and obtain a CFT action whose extremization leads to bulk points. We then generalize all of these results to the case of curves that vary in time, and discover that generic curves have segments that cannot be reconstructed using the standard hole-ographic construction. This happens because, for the nonreconstructible segments, the tangent geodesics fail to be fully contained within the Poincaré wedge. We show that a previously discovered variant of the hole-ographic method allows us to overcome this challenge, by reorienting the geodesics touching the bulk curve to ensure that they all remain within the wedge. Our conclusion is that all spacelike curves in Poincaré AdS can be completely reconstructed with CFT data, and each curve has in fact an infinite number of representations within the CFT.

Guidelines for Risk-Based Changeover of Biopharma Multi-Product Facilities.

PubMed

Lynch, Rob; Barabani, David; Bellorado, Kathy; Canisius, Peter; Heathcote, Doug; Johnson, Alan; Wyman, Ned; Parry, Derek Willison

2018-01-01

In multi-product biopharma facilities, the protection from product contamination due to the manufacture of multiple products simultaneously is paramount to assure product quality. To that end, the use of traditional changeover methods (elastomer change-out, full sampling, etc.) have been widely used within the industry and have been accepted by regulatory agencies. However, with the endorsement of Quality Risk Management (1), the use of risk-based approaches may be applied to assess and continuously improve established changeover processes. All processes, including changeover, can be improved with investment (money/resources), parallel activities, equipment design improvements, and standardization. However, processes can also be improved by eliminating waste. For product changeover, waste is any activity not needed for the new process or that does not provide added assurance of the quality of the subsequent product. The application of a risk-based approach to changeover aligns with the principles of Quality Risk Management. Through the use of risk assessments, the appropriate changeover controls can be identified and controlled to assure product quality is maintained. Likewise, the use of risk assessments and risk-based approaches may be used to improve operational efficiency, reduce waste, and permit concurrent manufacturing of products. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.

2005-08-01

When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.

Serum metabolites and risk of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke: a targeted metabolomic approach in two German prospective cohorts.

PubMed

Floegel, Anna; Kühn, Tilman; Sookthai, Disorn; Johnson, Theron; Prehn, Cornelia; Rolle-Kampczyk, Ulrike; Otto, Wolfgang; Weikert, Cornelia; Illig, Thomas; von Bergen, Martin; Adamski, Jerzy; Boeing, Heiner; Kaaks, Rudolf; Pischon, Tobias

2018-01-01

Metabolomic approaches in prospective cohorts may offer a unique snapshot into early metabolic perturbations that are associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in healthy people. We investigated the association of 105 serum metabolites, including acylcarnitines, amino acids, phospholipids and hexose, with risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam (27,548 adults) and Heidelberg (25,540 adults) cohorts. Using case-cohort designs, we measured metabolites among individuals who were free of CVD and diabetes at blood draw but developed MI (n = 204 and n = 228) or stroke (n = 147 and n = 121) during follow-up (mean, 7.8 and 7.3 years) and among randomly drawn subcohorts (n = 2214 and n = 770). We used Cox regression analysis and combined results using meta-analysis. Independent of classical CVD risk factors, ten metabolites were associated with risk of MI in both cohorts, including sphingomyelins, diacyl-phosphatidylcholines and acyl-alkyl-phosphatidylcholines with pooled relative risks in the range of 1.21-1.40 per one standard deviation increase in metabolite concentrations. The metabolites showed positive correlations with total- and LDL-cholesterol (r ranged from 0.13 to 0.57). When additionally adjusting for total-, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides and C-reactive protein, acyl-alkyl-phosphatidylcholine C36:3 and diacyl-phosphatidylcholines C38:3 and C40:4 remained associated with risk of MI. When added to classical CVD risk models these metabolites further improved CVD prediction (c-statistics increased from 0.8365 to 0.8384 in EPIC-Potsdam and from 0.8344 to 0.8378 in EPIC-Heidelberg). None of the metabolites was consistently associated with stroke risk. Alterations in sphingomyelin and phosphatidylcholine metabolism, and particularly metabolites of the arachidonic acid pathway are independently associated with risk of MI in

Luck, come here! Automatic approach tendencies toward gambling cues in moderate- to high-risk gamblers.

PubMed

Boffo, Marilisa; Smits, Ruby; Salmon, Joshua P; Cowie, Megan E; de Jong, David T H A; Salemink, Elske; Collins, Pam; Stewart, Sherry H; Wiers, Reinout W

2018-02-01

Similar to substance addictions, reward-related cognitive motivational processes, such as selective attention and positive memory biases, have been found in disordered gambling. Despite findings that individuals with substance use problems are biased to approach substance-related cues automatically, no study has yet focused on automatic approach tendencies for motivationally salient gambling cues in problem gamblers. We tested if moderate- to high-risk gamblers show a gambling approach bias and whether this bias was related prospectively to gambling behaviour and problems. Cross-sectional assessment study evaluating the concurrent and longitudinal correlates of gambling approach bias in moderate- to high-risk gamblers compared with non-problem gamblers. Online study throughout the Netherlands. Twenty-six non-treatment-seeking moderate- to high-risk gamblers and 26 non-problem gamblers community-recruited via the internet. Two online assessment sessions 6 months apart, including self-report measures of gambling problems and behaviour (frequency, duration and expenditure) and the gambling approach avoidance task, with stimuli tailored to individual gambling habits. Relative to non-problem gamblers, moderate- to high-risk gamblers revealed a stronger approach bias towards gambling-related stimuli than neutral stimuli (P = 0.03). Gambling approach bias was correlated positively with past-month gambling expenditure at baseline (P = 0.03) and with monthly frequency of gambling at follow-up (P = 0.02). In multiple hierarchical regressions, baseline gambling approach bias predicted monthly frequency positively (P = 0.03) and total duration of gambling episodes (P = 0.01) 6 months later, but not gambling problems or expenditure. In the Netherlands, relative to non-problem gamblers, moderate- to high-risk gamblers appear to have a stronger tendency to approach rather than to avoid gambling-related pictures compared with neutral ones. This gambling approach bias is

Integrated Safety Risk Reduction Approach to Enhancing Human-Rated Spaceflight Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikula, J. F. Kip

2005-12-01

This paper explores and defines the current accepted concept and philosophy of safety improvement based on a Reliability enhancement (called here Reliability Enhancement Based Safety Theory [REBST]). In this theory a Reliability calculation is used as a measure of the safety achieved on the program. This calculation may be based on a math model or a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the system, or on an Event Tree Analysis (ETA) of the system's operational mission sequence. In each case, the numbers used in this calculation are hardware failure rates gleaned from past similar programs. As part of this paper, a fictional but representative case study is provided that helps to illustrate the problems and inaccuracies of this approach to safety determination. Then a safety determination and enhancement approach based on hazard, worst case analysis, and safety risk determination (called here Worst Case Based Safety Theory [WCBST]) is included. This approach is defined and detailed using the same example case study as shown in the REBST case study. In the end it is concluded that an approach combining the two theories works best to reduce Safety Risk.

p62 improves AD-like pathology by increasing autophagy.

PubMed

Caccamo, A; Ferreira, E; Branca, C; Oddo, S

2017-06-01

The multifunctional protein p62 is associated with neuropathological inclusions in several neurodegenerative disorders, including frontotemporal lobar degeneration, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Strong evidence shows that in AD, p62 immunoreactivity is associated with neurofibrillary tangles and is involved in tau degradation. However, it remains to be determined whether p62 also plays a role in regulating amyloid-β (Aβ) aggregation and degradation. Using a gene therapy approach, here we show that increasing brain p62 expression rescues cognitive deficits in APP/PS1 mice, a widely used animal model of AD. The cognitive improvement was associated with a decrease in Aβ levels and plaque load. Using complementary genetic and pharmacologic approaches, we found that the p62-mediated changes in Aβ were due to an increase in autophagy. To this end, we showed that removing the LC3-interacting region of p62, which facilitates p62-mediated selective autophagy, or blocking autophagy with a pharmacological inhibitor, was sufficient to prevent the decrease in Aβ. Overall, we believe these data provide the first direct in vivo evidence showing that p62 regulates Aβ turnover.

Consumption of Added Sugar among U.S. Children and Adolescents, 2005-2008. NCHS Data Brief. No. 87

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ervin, R. Bethene; Kit, Brian K.; Carroll, Margaret D.; Ogden, Cynthia L.

2012-01-01

The consumption of added sugars, which are sweeteners added to processed and prepared foods, has been associated with measures of cardiovascular disease risk among adolescents, including adverse cholesterol concentrations. Although the percent of daily calories derived from added sugars declined between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, consumption of…

Tweaking one-loop determinants in AdS3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, Alejandra; Keeler, Cynthia; Szepietowski, Phillip

2017-10-01

We revisit the subject of one-loop determinants in AdS3 gravity via the quasi-normal mode method. Our goal is to evaluate a one-loop determinant with chiral boundary conditions for the metric field; chirality is achieved by imposing Dirichlet boundary conditions on certain components while others satisfy Neumann. Along the way, we give a generalization of the quasinormal mode method for stationary (non-static) thermal backgrounds, and propose a treatment for Neumann boundary conditions in this framework. We evaluate the graviton one-loop determinant on the Euclidean BTZ background with parity-violating boundary conditions (CSS), and find excellent agreement with the dual warped CFT. We also discuss a more general falloff in AdS3 that is related to two dimensional quantum gravity in lightcone gauge. The behavior of the ghost fields under both sets of boundary conditions is novel and we discuss potential interpretations.

Continuous-spin mixed-symmetry fields in AdS(5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metsaev, R. R.

2018-05-01

Free mixed-symmetry continuous-spin fields propagating in AdS(5) space and flat R(4,1) space are studied. In the framework of a light-cone gauge formulation of relativistic dynamics, we build simple actions for such fields. The realization of relativistic symmetries on the space of light-cone gauge mixed-symmetry continuous-spin fields is also found. Interrelations between constant parameters entering the light-cone gauge actions and eigenvalues of the Casimir operators of space-time symmetry algebras are obtained. Using these interrelations and requiring that the field dynamics in AdS(5) be irreducible and classically unitary, we derive restrictions on the constant parameters and eigenvalues of the second-order Casimir operator of the algebra.

An integrated approach to evaluating alternative risk prediction strategies: a case study comparing alternative approaches for preventing invasive fungal disease.

PubMed

Sadique, Z; Grieve, R; Harrison, D A; Jit, M; Allen, E; Rowan, K M

2013-12-01

This article proposes an integrated approach to the development, validation, and evaluation of new risk prediction models illustrated with the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation study, which developed risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive fungal disease (IFD). Our decision-analytical model compared alternative strategies for preventing IFD at up to three clinical decision time points (critical care admission, after 24 hours, and end of day 3), followed with antifungal prophylaxis for those judged "high" risk versus "no formal risk assessment." We developed prognostic models to predict the risk of IFD before critical care unit discharge, with data from 35,455 admissions to 70 UK adult, critical care units, and validated the models externally. The decision model was populated with positive predictive values and negative predictive values from the best-fitting risk models. We projected lifetime cost-effectiveness and expected value of partial perfect information for groups of parameters. The risk prediction models performed well in internal and external validation. Risk assessment and prophylaxis at the end of day 3 was the most cost-effective strategy at the 2% and 1% risk threshold. Risk assessment at each time point was the most cost-effective strategy at a 0.5% risk threshold. Expected values of partial perfect information were high for positive predictive values or negative predictive values (£11 million-£13 million) and quality-adjusted life-years (£11 million). It is cost-effective to formally assess the risk of IFD for non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients. This integrated approach to developing and evaluating risk models is useful for informing clinical practice and future research investment. © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Published by International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) All rights reserved.

Lead generation in crop protection research: a portfolio approach to agrochemical discovery.

PubMed

Loso, Michael R; Garizi, Negar; Hegde, Vidyadhar B; Hunter, James E; Sparks, Thomas C

2017-04-01

The need for increased food and feed supply to support future global demand with the added challenges of resistance pressure and an evolving regulatory environment necessitates the discovery of new crop protection agents for growers of today and tomorrow. Lead generation is the critical 'engine' for maintaining a robust pipeline of new high-value products. A wide variety of approaches exist for the generation of new leads, many of which have demonstrated success. Each approach features some degree of merit or benefit while also having some inherent drawback or level of risk. While risk for any single approach can be mitigated in a variety of different ways depending on the approach, long-term viability of a successful lead generation program merits utilization of a portfolio of different approaches and methodologies for the generation of new leads. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Targeting modulates audiences’ brain and behavioral responses to safe sex video ads

PubMed Central

Lowen, Steven B; Shi, Zhenhao; Bissey, Bryn; Metzger, David S.; Langleben, Daniel D.

2016-01-01

Video ads promoting condom use are a key component of media campaigns to stem the HIV epidemic. Recent neuroimaging studies in the context of smoking cessation, point to personal relevance as one of the key variables that determine the effectiveness of public health messages. While minority men who have sex with men (MSM) are at the highest risk of HIV infection, most safe-sex ads feature predominantly Caucasian actors in heterosexual scenarios. We compared brain respons of 45 African American MSM to safe sex ads that were matched (i.e. ‘Targeted’) to participants’ sexual orientation and race, and ‘Untargeted’ ads that were un matched for these characteristics. Ad recall, perceived ‘convincingness’ and attitudes towards condom use were also assessed. We found that Targeted ads were better remembered than the Untargeted ads but perceived as equally convincing. Targeted ads engaged brain regions involved in self-referential processing and memory, including the amygdala, hippocampus, temporal and medial prefrontal cortices (MPFC) and the precuneus. Connectivity between MPFC and precuneus and middle temporal gyrus was stronger when viewing Targeted ads. Our results suggest that targeting may increase cognitive processing of safe sex ads and justify further prospective studies linking brain response to media public health interventions and clinical outcomes. PMID:27217112

Learning from high risk industries may not be straightforward: a qualitative study of the hierarchy of risk controls approach in healthcare.

PubMed

Liberati, Elisa G; Peerally, Mohammad Farhad; Dixon-Woods, Mary

2018-02-01

Though healthcare is often exhorted to learn from 'high-reliability' industries, adopting tools and techniques from those sectors may not be straightforward. We sought to examine the hierarchies of risk controls approach, used in high-risk industries to rank interventions according to supposed effectiveness in reducing risk, and widely advocated as appropriate for healthcare. Classification of risk controls proposed by clinical teams following proactive detection of hazards in their clinical systems. Classification was based on a widely used hierarchy of controls developed by the US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). A range of clinical settings in four English NHS hospitals. The four clinical teams in our study planned a total of 42 risk controls aimed at addressing safety hazards. Most (n = 35) could be classed as administrative controls, thus qualifying among the weakest type of interventions according to the HoC approach. Six risk controls qualified as 'engineering' controls, i.e. the intermediate level of the hierarchy. Only risk control qualified as 'substitution', classified as the strongest type of intervention by the HoC. Many risk controls introduced by clinical teams may cluster towards the apparently weaker end of an established hierarchy of controls. Less clear is whether the HoC approach as currently formulated is useful for the specifics of healthcare. Valuable opportunities for safety improvement may be lost if inappropriate hierarchical models are used to guide the selection of patient safety improvement interventions. Though learning from other industries may be useful, caution is needed. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care.

Optimization of carrageenan-based jelly products added with nutrients for reducing osteoporosis risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athaillah, Zatil Afrah; Eviana, Irma; Pudjiraharti, Sri; Haryono, Agus

2017-11-01

Osteoporosis is a main concern, particularly in aging populations and more specifically in elderly women. Introducing functional foods that contains nutrients that have been scientifically proven to bring beneficial effects for bone metabolism is one of potential mechanism to reduce its prevalence. In this study, optimization of jelly products containing the necessary nutrients was conducted. We investigated the effect of adding skim milk, at particular concentrations, to gelling temperature of the sol, syneresis of the gels, and texture profile of the gels. Furthermore, green tea and ginger extract were added to the formulation and consumer preference on color and taste was analyzed. Our findings demonstrated that no significant difference in gelling temperature and syneresis was found as skim milk concentration was increased from 0.64 to 2.51%. Texture profile analysis data suggested that adding skim milk contributed to increased firmness, toughness, stringiness, and initial stiffness of the gels. In general, panellist could accept both color and taste of green tea and ginger jellies, as the median values were between 6 and 7 in the 9-point rating hedonic scale. These findings suggested that addition of nutrients beneficial for bone health can be conducted to jelly products with good sensory acceptance.

A Robust Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Species Sensitivity Distributions.

PubMed

Monti, Gianna S; Filzmoser, Peter; Deutsch, Roland C

2018-05-03

The guidelines for setting environmental quality standards are increasingly based on probabilistic risk assessment due to a growing general awareness of the need for probabilistic procedures. One of the commonly used tools in probabilistic risk assessment is the species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which represents the proportion of species affected belonging to a biological assemblage as a function of exposure to a specific toxicant. Our focus is on the inverse use of the SSD curve with the aim of estimating the concentration, HCp, of a toxic compound that is hazardous to p% of the biological community under study. Toward this end, we propose the use of robust statistical methods in order to take into account the presence of outliers or apparent skew in the data, which may occur without any ecological basis. A robust approach exploits the full neighborhood of a parametric model, enabling the analyst to account for the typical real-world deviations from ideal models. We examine two classic HCp estimation approaches and consider robust versions of these estimators. In addition, we also use data transformations in conjunction with robust estimation methods in case of heteroscedasticity. Different scenarios using real data sets as well as simulated data are presented in order to illustrate and compare the proposed approaches. These scenarios illustrate that the use of robust estimation methods enhances HCp estimation. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

76 FR 34010 - Credit Risk Retention

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-10

... 2501-AD53 Credit Risk Retention AGENCIES: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury (OCC... credit risk retention requirements of section 15G of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as added by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (``Credit Risk NPR'' or ``proposed rule...

Mediterranean Storms: An Integrated Approach of Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karageorgou, H.; Riza, E.; Linos, A.; Papanikolaou, D.

2010-09-01

Disaster by UN definition is "a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using only its own resources". Mediterranean storms induce flash floods caused by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short lasting period of time. The intensity and duration of precipitation, region geomorphology, urbanization and different governmental emergency management structures trigger different consequences between Mediterranean countries. The integrated approach in management of storm risk represents a holistic perspective including interactions between government, science and technology institutions, developing agencies, private sector, NGOs and public. Local authorities and national government are responsible for the design, preparation and decision on storm risk management policies and strategies considering scientific risk identifying, assessing and understanding. Efficient governance management requires satisfied response to early warning systems, functionality of the affected systems upon which society depends and appropriate focus on variable interest, beliefs, values and ideologies between social groups. Also an appropriate balancing of benefits and costs in an efficient and equitable manner is important for the governance risk management. Natural sciences in corporation with the engineering science have developed effective early prediction, warning and monitoring systems on storm and flood risk. The health sciences use prediction systems for health related hazards and consequences and the social sciences research estimates the human resilience during disasters and the factors which affect and determine the human behavior. Also social sciences survey the response of public to early warning messages, the appropriate communicative methods to distributing messages and mechanisms to improve public

F-theory and AdS3/CFT2 (2, 0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couzens, Christopher; Martelli, Dario; Schäfer-Nameki, Sakura

2018-06-01

We continue to develop the program initiated in [1] of studying supersymmetric AdS3 backgrounds of F-theory and their holographic dual 2d superconformal field theories, which are dimensional reductions of theories with varying coupling. Imposing 2d N=(0,2) supersymmetry,wederivethegeneralconditionsonthegeometryforTypeIIB AdS3 solutions with varying axio-dilaton and five-form flux. Locally the compact part of spacetime takes the form of a circle fibration over an eight-fold Y_8^{τ } , which is elliptically fibered over a base \\tilde{M}_6 . We construct two classes of solutions given in terms of a product ansatz \\tilde{M}_6}=Σ × {M}_4 , where Σ is a complex curve and \\tilde{M}_4 is locally a Kähler surface. In the first class \\tilde{M}_4 is globally a Kähler surface and we take the elliptic fibration to vary non-trivially over either of these two factors, where in both cases the metrics on the total space of the elliptic fibrations are not Ricci-flat. In the second class the metric on the total space of the elliptic fibration over either curve or surface are Ricci-flat. This results in solutions of the type AdS3 × K3 × ℳ 5 τ , dual to 2d (0, 2) SCFTs, and AdS3 × S 3/Γ × CY 3, dual to 2d (0, 4) SCFTs, respectively. In all cases we compute the charges for the dual field theories with varying coupling and find agreement with the holographic results. We also show that solutions with enhanced 2d N=(2,2) supersymmetry must have constant axio-dilaton. Allowing the internal geometry to be non-compact leads to the most general class of Type IIB AdS5 solutions with varying axio-dilaton, i.e. F-theoretic solutions, that are dual to 4d N=1 SCFTs.

Safe system approach to reducing serious injury risk in motorcyclist collisions with fixed hazards.

PubMed

Bambach, M R; Mitchell, R J

2015-01-01

Collisions with fixed objects in the roadway environment account for a substantial proportion of motorcyclist fatalities. Many studies have identified individual roadway environment and/or motorcyclist characteristics that are associated with the severity of the injury outcome, including the presence of roadside barriers, helmet use, alcohol use and speeding. However, no studies have reported the cumulative benefit of such characteristics on motorcycling safety. The safe system approach recognises that the system must work as a whole to reduce the net injury risk to road users to an acceptable level, including the four system cornerstone areas of roadways, speeds, vehicles and people. The aim of the present paper is to consider these cornerstone areas concomitantly, and quantitatively assess the serious injury risk of motorcyclists in fixed object collisions using this holistic approach. A total of 1006 Australian and 15,727 (weighted) United States motorcyclist-fixed object collisions were collected retrospectively, and the serious injury risks associated with roadside barriers, helmet use, alcohol use and speeding were assessed both individually and concomitantly. The results indicate that if safety efforts are made in each of the safe system cornerstone areas, the combined effect is to substantially reduce the serious injury risk of fixed hazards to motorcyclists. The holistic approach is shown to reduce the serious injury risk considerably more than each of the safety efforts considered individually. These results promote the use of a safe system approach to motorcycling safety. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impediments to the Estimation of Teacher Value Added

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ishii, Jun; Rivkin, Steven G.

2009-01-01

This article considers potential impediments to the estimation of teacher quality caused primarily by the purposeful behavior of families, administrators, and teachers. The discussion highlights the benefits of accounting for student and school differences through a value-added modeling approach that incorporates a student's history of family,…

The added value of a water footprint approach: Micro- and macroeconomic analysis of cotton production, processing and export in water bound Uzbekistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, I.; Bekchanov, M.; Djanibekov, U.; Lamers, J. P. A.

2013-11-01

Since independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991, Uzbekistan is challenged to consolidate its efforts and identify and introduce suitable agricultural policies to ease the threat of advancing land, water and ecosystem deterioration. On the one hand, irrigated cotton production provides income, food and energy sources for a large part of the rural households, which accounts for about 70% of the total population. On the other hand, this sector is considered a major driver of the on-going environmental degradation. Due to this dual nature, an integrated approach is needed that allows the analyses of the cotton sector at different stages and, consequently, deriving comprehensive options for action. The findings of the economic based value chain analysis and ecologically-oriented water footprint analysis on regional level were complemented with the findings of an input-output model on national level. This combination gave an added value for better-informed decision-making to reach land, water and ecosystem sustainability, compared to the individual results of each approach. The synergy of approaches pointed at various options for actions, such as to (i) promote the shift of water use from the high water consuming agricultural sector to a less water consuming cotton processing sector, (ii) increase overall water use efficiency by expanding the highly water productive industrial sectors and concurrently decreasing sectors with inefficient water use, and (iii) reduce agricultural water use by improving irrigation and conveyance efficiencies. The findings showed that increasing water use efficiency, manufacturing products with higher value added and raising water users' awareness of the real value of water are essential for providing water security in Uzbekistan.

Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

2015-04-01

One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

Risk management: FIFA's approach for protecting the health of football players

PubMed Central

Fuller, Colin W; Junge, Astrid; Dvorak, Jiri

2012-01-01

Background Sport and exercise have long-term health benefits, but there is also a risk that participants will sustain injuries and/or ill health from these activities. For this reason, international sports governing bodies have a responsibility to identify the risks that exist within their sport and to provide guidance to participants and other stakeholders on how these risks can be controlled within acceptable levels. Purpose To demonstrate how Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), as football's governing body, uses a risk management framework to identify, quantify, mitigate and communicate the risks of injury and ill health in football for men, women and children in all environments. Method All the research papers published by FIFA's Medical Assessment and Research Centre (F-MARC) during the period 1994 to 2011 were reviewed and categorised according to an established sport-related risk management framework. Conclusions F-MARC investigated and mitigated 17 areas of risk to footballers' health in a coherent and consistent approach through the process of risk management. PMID:22143999

New paradigms in PCOS: impaired glucose tolerance and cardiovascular risk. Clinical approach.

PubMed

Ravn, P

2015-04-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disorder amongst women of reproductive age and is associated with various metabolic risk factors, in addition to chronic anovulation and factors related to androgen excess. Women with PCOS have a higher risk of insulin resistance, hyperinsulinemia, glucose intolerance, dyslipidemia, and an increased prothrombotic state, resulting in a higher risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus, subclinical atherosclerosis, vascular dysfunction, and apparently cardiovascular disease and mortality. The aim of the present article was to summarize current knowledge with focus on a suggestion to the clinical approach and handling of these metabolic risk factors.

Stability of warped AdS3 vacua of topologically massive gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anninos, Dionysios; Esole, Mboyo; Guica, Monica

2009-10-01

AdS3 vacua of topologically massive gravity (TMG) have been shown to be perturbatively unstable for all values of the coupling constant except the chiral point μl = 1. We study the possibility that the warped vacua of TMG, which exist for all values of μ, are stable under linearized perturbations. In this paper, we show that spacelike warped AdS3 vacua with Compère-Detournay boundary conditions are indeed stable in the range μl>3. This is precisely the range in which black hole solutions arise as discrete identifications of the warped AdS3 vacuum. The situation somewhat resembles chiral gravity: although negative energy modes do exist, they are all excluded by the boundary conditions, and the perturbative spectrum solely consists of boundary (pure large gauge) gravitons.

The Use of a School Value-Added Model for Educational Improvement: A Case Study from the Portuguese Primary Education System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferrão, Maria Eugénia; Couto, Alcino Pinto

2014-01-01

This article focuses on the use of a value-added approach for promoting school improvement. It presents yearly value-added estimates, analyses their stability over time, and discusses the contribution of this methodological approach for promoting school improvement programmes in the Portuguese system of evaluation. The value-added model is applied…

Reducing pediatric caries and obesity risk in South Asian immigrants: randomized controlled trial of common health/risk factor approach.

PubMed

Karasz, Alison; Bonuck, Karen

2018-05-31

This paper describes the design and methods of a multi-phase study to reduce early childhood caries and obesity in vulnerable South Asian (SA) immigrants in the United States. Early childhood caries and obesity are the most common diseases of early childhood. Risk factors for both diseases are rooted in early childhood feeding practices such as bottle feeding and intake of sweets and sweetened beverages. The Common Health/Risk Factor Approach to addressing oral health is widely promoted by the WHO and other policy makers. This approach recognizes links between oral health and other diseases of modernity. Our CHALO! ("Child Health Action to Lower Obesity and Oral health risk"--from a Hindi word meaning "Let's go!") study targets SA families at high risk for early childhood caries and obesity. CHALO! addresses common risk factors associated with these two common diseases of childhood. This two part project includes a randomized controlled trial, and a Knowledge Translation campaign. A randomized controlled trial will enroll n =  360 families from pediatric practices serving South Asians in the New York metro area. The intervention group will receive home visits by SA community health workers at 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, and 16 months of age. Controls will receive culturally tailored educational material. Primary outcomes-- cariogenic and obesogenic feeding practices at 6, 12, and 18 months-- will be assessed with the MySmileBuddy iPad based tool. Secondary outcomes include: oral hygiene practices, anthropometrics, and caries incidence at 18 months. A public education campaign will focus on both families and health care providers. There are few Common Health/Risk Factor Approach published studies on obesity and oral health risk in children, despite health morbidity and costs associated with both conditions. CHALO! comprises a multi-level interventions designed to promote culturally competent, sustainable change. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03077425 .

Effect of Adding McKenzie Syndrome, Centralization, Directional Preference, and Psychosocial Classification Variables to a Risk-Adjusted Model Predicting Functional Status Outcomes for Patients With Lumbar Impairments.

PubMed

Werneke, Mark W; Edmond, Susan; Deutscher, Daniel; Ward, Jason; Grigsby, David; Young, Michelle; McGill, Troy; McClenahan, Brian; Weinberg, Jon; Davidow, Amy L

2016-09-01

Study Design Retrospective cohort. Background Patient-classification subgroupings may be important prognostic factors explaining outcomes. Objectives To determine effects of adding classification variables (McKenzie syndrome and pain patterns, including centralization and directional preference; Symptom Checklist Back Pain Prediction Model [SCL BPPM]; and the Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire subscales of work and physical activity) to a baseline risk-adjusted model predicting functional status (FS) outcomes. Methods Consecutive patients completed a battery of questionnaires that gathered information on 11 risk-adjustment variables. Physical therapists trained in Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy methods classified each patient by McKenzie syndromes and pain pattern. Functional status was assessed at discharge by patient-reported outcomes. Only patients with complete data were included. Risk of selection bias was assessed. Prediction of discharge FS was assessed using linear stepwise regression models, allowing 13 variables to enter the model. Significant variables were retained in subsequent models. Model power (R(2)) and beta coefficients for model variables were estimated. Results Two thousand sixty-six patients with lumbar impairments were evaluated. Of those, 994 (48%), 10 (<1%), and 601 (29%) were excluded due to incomplete psychosocial data, McKenzie classification data, and missing FS at discharge, respectively. The final sample for analyses was 723 (35%). Overall R(2) for the baseline prediction FS model was 0.40. Adding classification variables to the baseline model did not result in significant increases in R(2). McKenzie syndrome or pain pattern explained 2.8% and 3.0% of the variance, respectively. When pain pattern and SCL BPPM were added simultaneously, overall model R(2) increased to 0.44. Although none of these increases in R(2) were significant, some classification variables were stronger predictors compared with some other variables included in

How redesigning AD clinical trials might increase study partners' willingness to participate.

PubMed

Karlawish, Jason; Cary, Mark S; Rubright, Jonathan; Tenhave, Tom

2008-12-02

Timely recruiting and retaining participants into Alzheimer disease (AD) clinical trials is a challenge. We used conjoint analysis to identify how alterations in attributes of clinical trial design improve willingness to participate: risk, home visits, car service, or increased chance of receiving intervention. A total of 108 study partners of patients with very mild to severe stage AD rated willingness to allow their relative to participate in eight clinical trials that varied combinations of the four attributes. The highest utility was for home visits (0.89) which essentially compensated for the disutility of high risk (-0.85). The combination of home visits and car service was redundant, with almost no increase in utility over home visits alone. Seventeen percent were willing to participate in a trial with no amenities; the addition of home visits increased predicted willingness to participate to 27%; low risk, home visits, and higher chance of active treatment increased predicted willingness to 60%. The value of reducing the hassles of travel correlated well with measures of AD severity (activities of daily living r = 0.41, p < 0.001; basic activities of daily living r = 0.38, p < 0.001; Neuropsychiatric Inventory severity p = 0.24, p = 0.01; Neuropsychiatric Inventory distress r = 0.23, p < 0.02). No association was found between degree of study partner burden and willingness to tolerate risk of an intervention. Clinical trials that reduce travel inconvenience may offset the disincentive of study features such as the risk of intervention and may also increase willingness to participate. Redesigning trials may also help recruit patients with more severe Alzheimer disease. Shorter recruitment periods and increased retention rates may offset costs of these changes.

17 CFR 240.17Ad-4 - Applicability of §§ 240.17Ad-2, 240.17Ad-3 and 240.17Ad-6(a) (1) through (7) and (11).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Applicability of §§ 240.17Ad-2, 240.17Ad-3 and 240.17Ad-6(a) (1) through (7) and (11). 240.17Ad-4 Section 240.17Ad-4 Commodity... Commission or the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, prepare and maintain in its possession a...

17 CFR 240.17Ad-4 - Applicability of §§ 240.17Ad-2, 240.17Ad-3 and 240.17Ad-6(a) (1) through (7) and (11).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Applicability of §§ 240.17Ad-2, 240.17Ad-3 and 240.17Ad-6(a) (1) through (7) and (11). 240.17Ad-4 Section 240.17Ad-4 Commodity... Commission or the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, prepare and maintain in its possession a...

Risk, individual differences, and environment: an Agent-Based Modeling approach to sexual risk-taking.

PubMed

Nagoski, Emily; Janssen, Erick; Lohrmann, David; Nichols, Eric

2012-08-01

Risky sexual behaviors, including the decision to have unprotected sex, result from interactions between individuals and their environment. The current study explored the use of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)-a methodological approach in which computer-generated artificial societies simulate human sexual networks-to assess the influence of heterogeneity of sexual motivation on the risk of contracting HIV. The models successfully simulated some characteristics of human sexual systems, such as the relationship between individual differences in sexual motivation (sexual excitation and inhibition) and sexual risk, but failed to reproduce the scale-free distribution of number of partners observed in the real world. ABM has the potential to inform intervention strategies that target the interaction between an individual and his or her social environment.

Risk Factors for Overweight/Obesity in Preschool Children: An Ecological Approach

PubMed Central

McBride, Brent A.; Fiese, Barbara H.; Jones, Blake L.; Cho, Hyunkeun

2013-01-01

Abstract Background Identification of risk factors is critical to preventing the childhood obesity epidemic. Risk factors that contribute to obesity are multifactorial. However, limited research has focused on identifying obesity risk factors using an ecological approach. Methods Baseline self-report survey data from the STRONG Kids program were used. The sample consisted of 329 parent-child dyads recruited from childcare programs in east-central Illinois. Child height and weight were measured and converted to age- and sex-specific z-scores using standard growth charts. An ecological model provided the theoretical framework for the selection of 22 previously reported childhood obesity risk factors. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors. Results Of 22 potential risk factors, three were found to be significantly associated with child overweight/obesity. These included child nighttime sleep duration (χ2=8.56; p=0.003), parent BMI (χ2=5.62; p=0.01), and parental restrictive feeding for weight control (χ2=4.77; p=0.02). Children who slept for 8 hours and less were 2.2 times more likely to be overweight/obese [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3–3.7), whereas children with an overweight/obese parent were 1.9 times more likely to be overweight/obese (95% CI: 1.12–3.2). Finally, children whose parents used restrictive feeding practices were 1.75 times more likely to be overweight/obese (95% CI: 1.06–2.9). Conclusions Using an ecological approach, we conclude that childhood obesity prevention efforts may benefit from targeting the key risk factors of child sleep duration, parent BMI, and parental restrictive feeding practices as focus areas for obesity prevention. PMID:24020790

Dielectric coagulometry: a new approach to estimate venous thrombosis risk.

PubMed

Hayashi, Yoshihito; Katsumoto, Yoichi; Omori, Shinji; Yasuda, Akio; Asami, Koji; Kaibara, Makoto; Uchimura, Isao

2010-12-01

We present dielectric coagulometry as a new technique to estimate the risk of venous thrombosis by measuring the permittivity change associated with the blood coagulation process. The method was first tested for a simple system of animal erythrocytes suspended in fibrinogen solution, where the coagulation rate was controlled by changing the amount of thrombin added to the suspension. Second, the method was applied to a more realistic system of human whole blood, and the inherent coagulation process was monitored without artificial acceleration by a coagulation initiator. The time dependence of the permittivity at a frequency around 1 MHz showed a distinct peak at a time that corresponds to the clotting time. Our theoretical modeling revealed that the evolution of heterogeneity and the sedimentation in the system cause the peak of the permittivity.

Revisiting the phase transition of AdS-Maxwell-power-Yang-Mills black holes via AdS/CFT tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Moumni, H.

2018-01-01

In the present work we investigate the Van der Waals-like phase transition of AdS black hole solution in the Einstein-Maxwell-power-Yang-Mills gravity (EMPYM) via different approaches. After reconsidering this phase structure in the entropy-thermal plane, we recall the nonlocal observables such as holographic entanglement entropy and two point correlation function to show that the both observables exhibit a Van der Waals-like behavior as the case of the thermal entropy. By checking the Maxwell's equal area law and calculating the critical exponent for different values of charge C and nonlinearity parameter q we confirm that the first and the second order phases persist in the holographic framework. Also the validity of the Maxwell law is governed by the proximity to the critical point.

Streptozotocin Intracerebroventricular-Induced Neurotoxicity and Brain Insulin Resistance: a Therapeutic Intervention for Treatment of Sporadic Alzheimer's Disease (sAD)-Like Pathology.

PubMed

Kamat, Pradip K; Kalani, Anuradha; Rai, Shivika; Tota, Santosh Kumar; Kumar, Ashok; Ahmad, Abdullah S

2016-09-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder that is remarkably characterized by pathological hallmarks which include amyloid plaques, neurofibrillary tangles, neuronal loss, and progressive cognitive loss. Several well-known genetic mutations which are being used for the development of a transgenic model of AD lead to an early onset familial AD (fAD)-like condition. However, these settings are only reasons for a small percentage of the total AD cases. The large majorities of AD cases are considered as a sporadic in origin and are less influenced by a single mutation of a gene. The etiology of sporadic Alzheimer's disease (sAD) remains unclear, but numerous risk factors have been identified that increase the chance of developing AD. Among these risk factors are insulin desensitization/resistance state, oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, synapse dysfunction, tau hyperphosphorylation, and deposition of Aβ in the brain. Subsequently, these risk factors lead to development of sAD. However, the underlying molecular mechanism is not so clear. Streptozotocin (STZ) produces similar characteristic pathology of sAD such as altered glucose metabolism, insulin signaling, synaptic dysfunction, protein kinases such as protein kinase B/C, glycogen synthase-3β (GSK-3β) activation, tau hyperphosphorylation, Aβ deposition, and neuronal apoptosis. Further, STZ also leads to inhibition of Akt/PKB, insulin receptor (IR) signaling molecule, and insulin resistance in brain. These alterations mediated by STZ can be used to explore the underlying molecular and pathophysiological mechanism of AD (especially sAD) and their therapeutic intervention for drug development against AD pathology.

The Evidence for a Risk-Based Approach to Australian Higher Education Regulation and Quality Assurance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Fleur

2012-01-01

This paper explores the nascent field of risk management in higher education, which is of particular relevance in Australia currently, as the Commonwealth Government implements its plans for a risk-based approach to higher education regulation and quality assurance. The literature outlines the concept of risk management and risk-based approaches…

Parkinson disease and Alzheimer disease: environmental risk factors.

PubMed

Campdelacreu, J

2014-01-01

The purpose of this review is to update and summarise available evidence on environmental risk factors that have been associated with risk of Parkinson disease (PD) or Alzheimer disease (AD) and discuss their potential mechanisms. Evidence consistently suggests that a higher risk of PD is associated with pesticides and that a higher risk of AD is associated with pesticides, hypertension and high cholesterol levels in middle age, hyperhomocysteinaemia, smoking, traumatic brain injury and depression. There is weak evidence suggesting that higher risk of PD is associated with high milk consumption in men, high iron intake, chronic anaemia and traumatic brain injury. Weak evidence also suggests that a higher risk of AD is associated with high aluminium intake through drinking water, excessive exposure to electromagnetic fields from electrical grids, DM and hyperinsulinaemia, obesity in middle age, excessive alcohol consumption and chronic anaemia. Evidence consistently suggests that a lower risk of PD is associated with hyperuricaemia, tobacco and coffee use, while a lower risk of AD is associated with moderate alcohol consumption, physical exercise, perimenopausal hormone replacement therapy and good cognitive reserve. Weak evidence suggests that lower risk of PD is associated with increased vitamin E intake, alcohol, tea, NSAIDs, and vigorous physical exercise, and that lower risk of AD is associated with the Mediterranean diet, coffee and habitual NSAID consumption. Several environmental factors contribute significantly to risk of PD and AD. Some may already be active in the early stages of life, and some may interact with other genetic factors. Population-based strategies to modify such factors could potentially result in fewer cases of PD or AD. Copyright © 2012 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

The added value of a family-centered approach to optimize infants’ social-emotional development: A quasi-experimental study

PubMed Central

Hielkema, Margriet; Stewart, Roy E.; de Winter, Andrea F.

2017-01-01

Objective Family-centered care (FCC) has been related to positive healthcare outcomes in pediatric care. Our aim was to assess whether an FCC approach also leads to better and earlier identification of social-emotional problems and less child psychosocial problems at age 18 months. Methods In a quasi-experimental study within routine well-child care in the Netherlands, we compared those regions in which an FCC approach was implemented (FCC-JointStart) to those regions with “care-as-usual” (CAU), including all children. In all regions, professionals performed well-child visits (2–18 months) and assessed social-emotional problems, or risks developing these, by rating outcomes of assessments as “not optimal” or as “a problem.” We compared FCC-JointStart and CAU regarding the rates of newly identified (risks for) social-emotional problems, the pace of identification over time, and the child’s psychosocial wellbeing at eighteen months as measured by the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). For participants that received extra care, we compared FCC-JointStart and CAU regarding the severity of parent-reported problems. Parents were blinded, professionals were not. Results 5658 parents (68%) agreed to participate in the study. In the FCC-JointStart group, risks were identified more frequently, though differences were small (24.7% versus 22.0%, odds ratio (95%-confidence interval) adjusted for confounders: 1.44 (0.96; 2.18), Phi = .03). Risks were also identified earlier (p = .008), and additional care was provided to more severe cases than in CAU. Effect sizes r ranged from 0.17 (PSBC) to 0.22 (FAD). CBCL scores at 18 months did not differ between groups. Conclusions FFC-JointStart may contribute to more and earlier identification of risks for social-emotional problems and of families that need additional care, but not to fewer child psychosocial problems at age 18 months. Trial registration Netherlands Trial Register NTR2681 PMID:29267270

Configural approaches to temperament assessment: implications for predicting risk of unintentional injury in children.

PubMed

Berry, Jack W; Schwebel, David C

2009-10-01

This study used two configural approaches to understand how temperament factors (surgency/extraversion, negative affect, and effortful control) might predict child injury risk. In the first approach, clustering procedures were applied to trait dimensions to identify discrete personality prototypes. In the second approach, two- and three-way trait interactions were considered dimensionally in regression models predicting injury outcomes. Injury risk was assessed through four measures: lifetime prevalence of injuries requiring professional medical attention, scores on the Injury Behavior Checklist, and frequency and severity of injuries reported in a 2-week injury diary. In the prototype analysis, three temperament clusters were obtained, which resembled resilient, overcontrolled, and undercontrolled types found in previous research. Undercontrolled children had greater risk of injury than children in the other groups. In the dimensional interaction analyses, an interaction between surgency/extraversion and negative affect tended to predict injury, especially when children lacked capacity for effortful control.

Targeting modulates audiences' brain and behavioral responses to safe sex video ads.

PubMed

Wang, An-Li; Lowen, Steven B; Shi, Zhenhao; Bissey, Bryn; Metzger, David S; Langleben, Daniel D

2016-10-01

Video ads promoting condom use are a key component of media campaigns to stem the HIV epidemic. Recent neuroimaging studies in the context of smoking cessation, point to personal relevance as one of the key variables that determine the effectiveness of public health messages. While minority men who have sex with men (MSM) are at the highest risk of HIV infection, most safe-sex ads feature predominantly Caucasian actors in heterosexual scenarios. We compared brain respons of 45 African American MSM to safe sex ads that were matched (i.e. 'Targeted') to participants' sexual orientation and race, and 'Untargeted' ads that were un matched for these characteristics. Ad recall, perceived 'convincingness' and attitudes towards condom use were also assessed. We found that Targeted ads were better remembered than the Untargeted ads but perceived as equally convincing. Targeted ads engaged brain regions involved in self-referential processing and memory, including the amygdala, hippocampus, temporal and medial prefrontal cortices (MPFC) and the precuneus. Connectivity between MPFC and precuneus and middle temporal gyrus was stronger when viewing Targeted ads. Our results suggest that targeting may increase cognitive processing of safe sex ads and justify further prospective studies linking brain response to media public health interventions and clinical outcomes. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

PubMed

Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

2014-07-01

The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Infrared realization of dS2 in AdS2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anninos, Dionysios; Hofman, Diego M.

2018-04-01

We describe a two-dimensional geometry that smoothly interpolates between an asymptotically AdS2 geometry and the static patch of dS2. We find this ‘centaur’ geometry to be a solution of dilaton gravity with a specific class of potentials for the dilaton. We interpret the centaur geometry as a thermal state in the putative quantum mechanics dual to the AdS2 evolved with the global Hamiltonian. We compute the thermodynamic properties and observe that the centaur state has finite entropy and positive specific heat. The static patch is the infrared part of the centaur geometry. We discuss boundary observables sensitive to the static patch region.

Systemic inflammation as a predictor of brain aging: Contributions of physical activity, metabolic risk, and genetic risk.

PubMed

Corlier, Fabian; Hafzalla, George; Faskowitz, Joshua; Kuller, Lewis H; Becker, James T; Lopez, Oscar L; Thompson, Paul M; Braskie, Meredith N

2018-05-15

Inflammatory processes may contribute to risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and age-related brain degeneration. Metabolic and genetic risk factors, and physical activity may, in turn, influence these inflammatory processes. Some of these risk factors are modifiable, and interact with each other. Understanding how these processes together relate to brain aging will help to inform future interventions to treat or prevent cognitive decline. We used brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to scan 335 older adult humans (mean age 77.3 ± 3.4 years) who remained non-demented for the duration of the 9-year longitudinal study. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) in a subset of 226 adults to evaluate whether measures of baseline peripheral inflammation (serum C-reactive protein levels; CRP), mediated the baseline contributions of genetic and metabolic risk, and physical activity, to regional cortical thickness in AD-relevant brain regions at study year 9. We found that both baseline metabolic risk and AD risk variant apolipoprotein E ε4 (APOE4), modulated baseline serum CRP. Higher baseline CRP levels, in turn, predicted thinner regional cortex at year 9, and mediated an effect between higher metabolic risk and thinner cortex in those regions. A higher polygenic risk score composed of variants in immune-associated AD risk genes (other than APOE) was associated with thinner regional cortex. However, CRP levels did not mediate this effect, suggesting that other mechanisms may be responsible for the elevated AD risk. We found interactions between genetic and environmental factors and structural brain health. Our findings support the role of metabolic risk and peripheral inflammation in age-related brain decline. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

QCD Condensates and Holographic Wilson Loops for Asymptotically AdS Spaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quevedo, R. Carcasses; Goity, Jose L.; Trinchero, Roberto C.

2014-02-01

The minimization of the Nambu-Goto (NG) action for a surface whose contour defines a circular Wilson loop of radius a placed at a finite value of the coordinate orthogonal to the border is considered. This is done for asymptotically AdS spaces. The condensates of dimension n = 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 are calculated in terms of the coefficients in the expansion in powers of the radius a of the on-shell subtracted NG action for small a->0. The subtraction employed is such that it presents no conflict with conformal invariance in the AdS case and need not introduce anmore » additional infrared scale for the case of confining geometries. It is shown that the UV value of the gluon condensates is universal in the sense that it only depends on the first coefficients of the difference with the AdS case.« less

Lake deposits record evidence of large post-1505 AD earthquakes in western Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghazoui, Z.; Bertrand, S.; Vanneste, K.; Yokoyama, Y.; Van Der Beek, P.; Nomade, J.; Gajurel, A.

2016-12-01

According to historical records, the last large earthquake that ruptured the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) in western Nepal occurred in 1505 AD. Since then, no evidence of other large earthquakes has been found in historical records or geological archives. In view of the catastrophic consequences to millions of inhabitants of Nepal and northern India, intense efforts currently focus on improving our understanding of past earthquake activity and complement the historical data on Himalayan earthquakes. Here we report a new record, based on earthquake-triggered turbidites in lakes. We use lake sediment records from Lake Rara, western Nepal, to reconstruct the occurrence of seismic events. The sediment cores were studied using a multi-proxy approach combining radiocarbon and 210Pb chronologies, physical properties (X-ray computerized axial tomography scan, Geotek multi-sensor core logger), high-resolution grain size, inorganic geochemistry (major elements by ITRAX XRF core scanning) and bulk organic geochemistry (C, N concentrations and stable isotopes). We identified several sequences of dense and layered fine sand mainly composed of mica, which we interpret as earthquake-triggered turbidites. Our results suggest the presence of a synchronous event between the two lake sites correlated with the well-known 1505 AD earthquake. In addition, our sediment records reveal five earthquake-triggered turbidites younger than the 1505 AD event. By comparison with historical archives, we relate one of those to the 1833 AD MFT rupture. The others may reflect successive ruptures of the Western Nepal Fault System. Our study sheds light on events that have not been recorded in historical chronicles. Those five MMI>7 earthquakes permit addressing the problem of missing slip on the MFT in western Nepal and reevaluating the risk of a large earthquake affecting western Nepal and North India.

Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Won Kyung; Lee, Hye Ah; Lim, Youn Hee; Park, Hyesook

2016-05-01

A heat wave could increase mortality owing to high temperature. However, little is known about the added (duration) effect of heat wave from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and different effect sizes depending on the definition of heat waves and models. A distributed lag non-linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the added effect of heat wave on mortality after adjusting for long-term and intra-seasonal trends and apparent temperature. We evaluated the cumulative relative risk of the added wave effect on mortality on lag days 0-30. The models were constructed using nine definitions of heat wave and two relationships (cubic spline and linear threshold model) between temperature and mortality to leave out the high temperature effect. Further, we performed sensitivity analysis to evaluate the changes in the effect of heat wave on mortality according to the different degrees of freedom for time trend and cubic spline of temperature. We found that heat wave had the added effect from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and it was considerable in the aspect of cumulative risk because of the lagged influence. When heat wave was defined with a threshold of 98th percentile temperature and ≥2, 3, and 4 consecutive days, mortality increased by 14.8 % (7.5-22.6, 95 % confidence interval (CI)), 18.1 % (10.8-26.0, 95 % CI), 18.1 % (10.7-25.9, 95 % CI), respectively, in cubic spline model. When it came to the definitions of 90th and 95th percentile, the risk increase in mortality declined to 3.7-5.8 % and 8.6-11.3 %, respectively. This effect was robust to the flexibility of the model for temperature and time trend, while the definitions of a heat wave were critical in estimating its relationship with mortality. This finding could help deepen our understanding and quantifying of the relationship between heat wave and mortality and select an appropriate definition of heat wave and temperature model in the future

A Qualitative Approach on Motives and Aspects of Risks in Freeriding

PubMed Central

Frühauf, Anika; Hardy, Will A. S.; Pfoestl, Daniel; Hoellen, Franz-Georg; Kopp, Martin

2017-01-01

Recent research has shown that there are multiple motives for participation in high-risk sport; however these results have come from studies that consider a number of different sports. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to better understand the motives and risk-related aspects of freeriding, using a qualitative approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 40 professional and semi-professional freeride skiers and snowboarders. All freeriders were highly experienced, of different age (19–44 years; 27.5 ± 4.5 years), gender (female = 13), and profession (professional athletes = 11). Analyses were done using MAXQDA software following a code theme approach. Mixed methods analyses using χ2-tests were computed for age (<25 years ≥) and gender (female/male) on motives and risk factors. Five emerging themes were found, namely Challenge (n = 36), Friends (n = 31), Nature (n = 27), Balance (n = 26), and Freedom (n = 26). A sixth theme Habit (n = 13) was allocated as a subtheme due to minor responses. With regard to risk management, participants decided upon a risk calculation strategy which included multiple factors (e.g., planning, conditions, current situation, knowledge, and experience). Trusting in one's own abilities, avoiding negative fear and having trusted partners were among the risk factors. Deliberately seeking out dangerous situations was not a motive. χ2-tests revealed no gender or age differences regarding aspects of risk (range of p-scores: p = 0.17–1.00) or motives (p = 0.16–1.00). Freeriding was shown to provide positive effects through participation. Some important factors seem to be motivational drivers for freeriders: challenging oneself, experiencing nature, contributing to deep friendships, freeriding as a counterbalance to everyday life and escape from restrictions. Contrary to prior research reports on sensation seeking, experienced freeriders do not search the risk; they seem to minimize it based on knowledge and

Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to

Understanding risk: a guide for the perplexed.

PubMed

Glimcher, Paul W

2008-12-01

Over the course of the past decade, neurobiologists have become increasingly interested in concepts and models imported from economics. Terms such as "risk," "risk aversion," and "utility" have become commonplace in the neuroscientific literature as single-unit physiologists and human cognitive neuroscientists search for the biological correlates of economic theories of value and choice. Among neuroscientists, an incomplete understanding of these concepts has, however, led to a growing confusion that threatens to check the rapid advances in this area. Adding to the confusion, notions of risk have more recently been imported from finance, which employs quite different, although formally related, mathematical tools. Of course, the mixing of economic, financial, and neuroscientific traditions can only be beneficial in the long run, but truly understanding the conceptual machinery of each area is a prerequisite for obtaining that benefit. With that in mind, I present here an overview of economic and financial notions of risk and decision. The article begins with an overview of the classical economic approach to risk, as developed by Bernoulli. It then explains the important differences between the classical tradition and modern neoclassical economic approaches to these same concepts. Finally, I present a very brief overview of the financial tradition and its relation to the economic tradition. For novices, this should provide a reasonable introduction to concepts ranging from "risk aversion" to "risk premiums."

A Hamiltonian approach for the Thermodynamics of AdS black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldiotti, M. C.; Fresneda, R.; Molina, C.

2017-07-01

In this work we study the Thermodynamics of D-dimensional Schwarzschild-anti de Sitter (SAdS) black holes. The minimal Thermodynamics of the SAdS spacetime is briefly discussed, highlighting some of its strong points and shortcomings. The minimal SAdS Thermodynamics is extended within a Hamiltonian approach, by means of the introduction of an additional degree of freedom. We demonstrate that the cosmological constant can be introduced in the thermodynamic description of the SAdS black hole with a canonical transformation of the Schwarzschild problem, closely related to the introduction of an anti-de Sitter thermodynamic volume. The treatment presented is consistent, in the sense that it is compatible with the introduction of new thermodynamic potentials, and respects the laws of black hole Thermodynamics. By demanding homogeneity of the thermodynamic variables, we are able to construct a new equation of state that completely characterizes the Thermodynamics of SAdS black holes. The treatment naturally generates phenomenological constants that can be associated with different boundary conditions in underlying microscopic theories. A whole new set of phenomena can be expected from the proposed generalization of SAdS Thermodynamics.

A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

PubMed

Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

2009-03-01

We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

A clustering approach to segmenting users of internet-based risk calculators.

PubMed

Harle, C A; Downs, J S; Padman, R

2011-01-01

Risk calculators are widely available Internet applications that deliver quantitative health risk estimates to consumers. Although these tools are known to have varying effects on risk perceptions, little is known about who will be more likely to accept objective risk estimates. To identify clusters of online health consumers that help explain variation in individual improvement in risk perceptions from web-based quantitative disease risk information. A secondary analysis was performed on data collected in a field experiment that measured people's pre-diabetes risk perceptions before and after visiting a realistic health promotion website that provided quantitative risk information. K-means clustering was performed on numerous candidate variable sets, and the different segmentations were evaluated based on between-cluster variation in risk perception improvement. Variation in responses to risk information was best explained by clustering on pre-intervention absolute pre-diabetes risk perceptions and an objective estimate of personal risk. Members of a high-risk overestimater cluster showed large improvements in their risk perceptions, but clusters of both moderate-risk and high-risk underestimaters were much more muted in improving their optimistically biased perceptions. Cluster analysis provided a unique approach for segmenting health consumers and predicting their acceptance of quantitative disease risk information. These clusters suggest that health consumers were very responsive to good news, but tended not to incorporate bad news into their self-perceptions much. These findings help to quantify variation among online health consumers and may inform the targeted marketing of and improvements to risk communication tools on the Internet.

AdS 2 holographic dictionary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cvetic, Mirjam; Papadimitriou, Ioannis

Here, we construct the holographic dictionary for both running and constant dilaton solutions of the two dimensional Einstein-Maxwell-Dilaton theory that is obtained by a circle reduction from Einstein-Hilbert gravity with negative cosmological constant in three dimensions. This specific model ensures that the dual theory has a well defined ultraviolet completion in terms of a two dimensional conformal field theory, but our results apply qualitatively to a wider class of two dimensional dilaton gravity theories. For each type of solutions we perform holographic renormalization, compute the exact renormalized one-point functions in the presence of arbitrary sources, and derive the asymptotic symmetriesmore » and the corresponding conserved charges. In both cases we find that the scalar operator dual to the dilaton plays a crucial role in the description of the dynamics. Its source gives rise to a matter conformal anomaly for the running dilaton solutions, while its expectation value is the only non trivial observable for constant dilaton solutions. The role of this operator has been largely overlooked in the literature. We further show that the only non trivial conserved charges for running dilaton solutions are the mass and the electric charge, while for constant dilaton solutions only the electric charge is non zero. However, by uplifting the solutions to three dimensions we show that constant dilaton solutions can support non trivial extended symmetry algebras, including the one found by Compère, Song and Strominger, in agreement with the results of Castro and Song. Finally, we demonstrate that any solution of this specific dilaton gravity model can be uplifted to a family of asymptotically AdS 2 × S 2 or conformally AdS 2 × S 2 solutions of the STU model in four dimensions, including non extremal black holes. As a result, the four dimensional solutions obtained by uplifting the running dilaton solutions coincide with the so called ‘subtracted geometries�

AdS 2 holographic dictionary

DOE PAGES

Cvetic, Mirjam; Papadimitriou, Ioannis

2016-12-02

Here, we construct the holographic dictionary for both running and constant dilaton solutions of the two dimensional Einstein-Maxwell-Dilaton theory that is obtained by a circle reduction from Einstein-Hilbert gravity with negative cosmological constant in three dimensions. This specific model ensures that the dual theory has a well defined ultraviolet completion in terms of a two dimensional conformal field theory, but our results apply qualitatively to a wider class of two dimensional dilaton gravity theories. For each type of solutions we perform holographic renormalization, compute the exact renormalized one-point functions in the presence of arbitrary sources, and derive the asymptotic symmetriesmore » and the corresponding conserved charges. In both cases we find that the scalar operator dual to the dilaton plays a crucial role in the description of the dynamics. Its source gives rise to a matter conformal anomaly for the running dilaton solutions, while its expectation value is the only non trivial observable for constant dilaton solutions. The role of this operator has been largely overlooked in the literature. We further show that the only non trivial conserved charges for running dilaton solutions are the mass and the electric charge, while for constant dilaton solutions only the electric charge is non zero. However, by uplifting the solutions to three dimensions we show that constant dilaton solutions can support non trivial extended symmetry algebras, including the one found by Compère, Song and Strominger, in agreement with the results of Castro and Song. Finally, we demonstrate that any solution of this specific dilaton gravity model can be uplifted to a family of asymptotically AdS 2 × S 2 or conformally AdS 2 × S 2 solutions of the STU model in four dimensions, including non extremal black holes. As a result, the four dimensional solutions obtained by uplifting the running dilaton solutions coincide with the so called ‘subtracted geometries�

Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Atilola, Olayinka

2014-01-01

Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood. PMID:24834431

Where lies the risk? An ecological approach to understanding child mental health risk and vulnerabilities in sub-saharan Africa.

PubMed

Atilola, Olayinka

2014-01-01

Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood.

Sputnik: ad hoc distributed computation.

PubMed

Völkel, Gunnar; Lausser, Ludwig; Schmid, Florian; Kraus, Johann M; Kestler, Hans A

2015-04-15

In bioinformatic applications, computationally demanding algorithms are often parallelized to speed up computation. Nevertheless, setting up computational environments for distributed computation is often tedious. Aim of this project were the lightweight ad hoc set up and fault-tolerant computation requiring only a Java runtime, no administrator rights, while utilizing all CPU cores most effectively. The Sputnik framework provides ad hoc distributed computation on the Java Virtual Machine which uses all supplied CPU cores fully. It provides a graphical user interface for deployment setup and a web user interface displaying the current status of current computation jobs. Neither a permanent setup nor administrator privileges are required. We demonstrate the utility of our approach on feature selection of microarray data. The Sputnik framework is available on Github http://github.com/sysbio-bioinf/sputnik under the Eclipse Public License. hkestler@fli-leibniz.de or hans.kestler@uni-ulm.de Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

PubMed

Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

2016-01-01

The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

Witten diagrams revisited: the AdS geometry of conformal blocks

DOE PAGES

Hijano, Eliot; Kraus, Per; Perlmutter, Eric; ...

2016-01-25

Here, we develop a new method for decomposing blocks. The steps involved are elementary, requiring no explicit integration, and operate directly in position space. Central to this construction is an appealingly simple answer to the question: what object in AdS computes a conformal block? The answer is a "geodesic Witten diagram", which is essentially an ordinary exchange Witten diagram, except that the cubic vertices are not integrated over all of AdS, but only over bulk geodesics connecting the boundary operators. In particular, we also consider the case of four-point functions of scalar operators, and show how to easily reproduce existingmore » results for the relevant conformal blocks in arbitrary dimension.« less

Altered risk-aversion and risk-taking behaviour in patients with Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Ha, Juwon; Kim, Eun-Jin; Lim, Sewon; Shin, Dong-Won; Kang, Yeo-Jin; Bae, Seung-Min; Yoon, Hyung-Kun; Oh, Kang-Seob

2012-09-01

Normal individuals are risk averse for decisions framed as gains but risk taking for decisions framed as losses. This framing effect is supposed to be attenuated in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. We investigated the effects of highlighting rewards versus highlighting punishments on the risky decision-making of AD patients. Fourteen mild to moderate AD patients (Mini-Mental Status Examination score, 11-23; Clinical Dementia Rating, 1-2) and 16 healthy volunteers were recruited for the study. Subjects completed a computerized task on risky decision-making in which mathematically equivalent dilemmas were presented in terms of opportunities to gain monetary rewards ('positive frame') or avoid suffering losses ('negative frame'). As expected, AD patients chose more risky options under the positive frame than the negative frame, contrary to the control group (Z =-2.671, P= 0.007). The normal difference in the distribution of risky choices between positively and negatively framed dilemmas was significantly reduced in the AD group after we adjusted for years of education, mean age and depression (F= 5.321, P= 0.030). Deliberation time did not differ significantly between the two groups. These results suggest that AD patients making high-risk choices is associated with attenuated sensitivity to the emotional frames that highlight rewards or punishments, possibly reflecting altered evaluations of prospective gains and losses. © 2012 The Authors. Psychogeriatrics © 2012 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

Half-BPS Wilson loop and AdS 2/CFT 1