41 CFR 102-37.535 - What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation program? 102-37.535 Section... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.535 What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of...

41 CFR 102-37.535 - What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation program? 102-37.535 Section... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.535 What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of...

41 CFR 102-37.535 - What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation program? 102-37.535 Section... Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.535 What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of...

FAA Loran early implementation project

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1990-03-01

The Early Implementation Project (EIP), established by FAA Administrator Admiral : Donald C. Engen, was the initial step in the process of Loran integration into the : National Airsace System (NAS). The EIP was designed to give the FAA and the Loran ...

FAA Directives System

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-08-26

Consistent with the Federal Aviation Administration's mission to foster a safe, : secure, and efficient aviation system is the need for an effective and efficient : process for communitcating policy and procedures. The FAA Directives System : provide...

Budget Treatment Issues for FAA Funding Options

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

Revenues from aviation excise taxes currently fund the majority of the programs : of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The FAA also receives a portion : of its budget from the general tax revenue of the federal government. One goal : of the ...

14 CFR 47.19 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 47.19 Section 47.19 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRCRAFT REGISTRATION General § 47.19 FAA Aircraft Registry. Each application, request, notification, or other...

FAA computer security : recommendations to address continuing weaknesses

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

In September, testimony before the Committee on Science, House of Representatives, focused on the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) computer security program. In brief, we reported that FAA's agency-wide computer security program has serious, p...

Advisory Circular checklist and status of other FAA publications

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-08-15

This 1997 circular transmits the revised checklist of the Federal Aviation : Administration's (FAA) Advisory Circulars (AC's). It also lists certain other : FAA publications sold by the Superintendent of Documents.

76 FR 6094 - FAA Public Forum To Conduct Regulatory Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-03

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Parts 27 and 29 FAA Public Forum To Conduct Regulatory Review AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of.... Attendees are not required to register for the Heli-Expo conference to participate in this public forum. FOR...

FAA statistical handbook of aviation, calendar year 1988

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1988-08-15

The FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation is published annually by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The handbook is provided here in MS Excel. format as downloadable files and as text tables that can be viewed in PDF format. The prime purpos...

14 CFR 39.5 - When does FAA issue airworthiness directives?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? 39.5 Section 39.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.5 When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? FAA issues...

14 CFR 39.5 - When does FAA issue airworthiness directives?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? 39.5 Section 39.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.5 When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? FAA issues...

14 CFR 39.5 - When does FAA issue airworthiness directives?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? 39.5 Section 39.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.5 When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? FAA issues...

14 CFR 39.5 - When does FAA issue airworthiness directives?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? 39.5 Section 39.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.5 When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? FAA issues...

14 CFR 39.5 - When does FAA issue airworthiness directives?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? 39.5 Section 39.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.5 When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? FAA issues...

Bolden at FAA Commercial Space Transportation Conference

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-02-09

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden speaks at the 14th Annual Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Commercial Space Transport Conference at the Washington Convention Center on Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2001. Photo Credit: (NASA/Carla Cioffi)

41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of the Report of Excess Real Property (Standard Form 118)) given to eligible public agencies that there...

FAA Certificated Maintenance Agencies Directory (1997)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-05-06

This advisory circular (AC) transmits a consolidated directory of all : certificated Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) repair stations and : manufacturer's maintenance facilities. The repair stations and manufacturer's : maintenance facilities we...

FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Statistical Handbook of Aviation, Calendar Year 1983.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-12-31

terminal and en route air traffic activity information (i.e., operations, flight plans filed) of the National Airspace System. The data is from the FAA...reflecting the fiscal and calendar year workload of the FAA air traffic facilities--terminal and en route-- are contained in Chapter II. This chapter...V, 4JW -v- A I.., r- >9 c U).)I .4 F- %. II. The National Airspace System This chapter furnishes terminal and en route air traffic activity

FAA Energy Order 1053.1A - Energy and Water Management Program For FAA Buildings and Facilities

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-12-27

This order provides Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) policies, procedures, and organizational responsibilities, in a focused and expanded agency energy and water planning and conservation program, for complying with the national mandates for the...

Forecasting the Movement of Educational Administrators Through Vacancy Flows

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Daniel J.

1976-01-01

Discusses the problem of forecasting manpower flows in administrative hierarchies of educational organizations, reviews groups of manpower models, discusses characteristics of administrative hierarchies and the vacancy model as it relates to those characteristics, and carries out validation and projective tests of the model. (Author/IRT)

Index of FAA Office of Aviation Medicine Reports: 1961-1991

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

82174.- DOT/FAA/AM-92/1 Index of FAA Office of Aviation Medicine Reports: Office of Aviation Medicine Washington, D.C. 20591 1961 through 1991 AD-A245...Subtitle j5. Report Date January 1992 INDEX TO FAA OFFICE OF AVIATION MEDICINE REPORTS: 6 Performing Organizoaton Code 1961 THROUGH 1991 __I B...Covered 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address Office of Aviation Medicine Federal Aviation Administration 800 Idependence Avenue, S.W. 14. Sponsoring

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1995.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1995) and Civil Aeromedical Institute Reports is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. The index lists all FAA aviation med...

Implementation of the FAA research and development electromagnetic database

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDowall, R.L.; Grush, D.J.; Cook, D.M.

1991-01-01

The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) has been assisting the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in developing a database of information about lightning. The FAA Research and Development Electromagnetic Database (FRED) will ultimately contain data from a variety of airborne and groundbased lightning research projects. This paper contains an outline of the data currently available in FRED. It also lists the data sources which the FAA intends to incorporate into FRED. In addition, it describes how the researcher may access and use the FRED menu system. 2 refs., 12 figs.

Information Security: Serious Weakness Put State Department and FAA Operations at Risk

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-05-19

Testimony focuses on the results of recent reviews of computer security at the Department of State and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Makes specific recommendations for improving State and FAA's information security posture. Highlights be...

Air Traffic Control: Immature Software Acquisition Processes Increase FAA System Acquisition Risks

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-03-01

The General Accounting Office (GAO) at the request of Congress reviewed (1) : the maturity of Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Air Traffic Control : (ATC) modernization software acquisition processes, and (2) the steps/actions : FAA has unde...

Crowd Sourcing Approach for UAS Communication Resource Demand Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wargo, Chris A.; Difelici, John; Roy, Aloke; Glaneuski, Jason; Kerczewski, Robert J.

2016-01-01

Congressional attention to Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) has caused the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to move the National Airspace System (NAS) Integration project forward, but using guidelines, practices and procedures that are yet to be fully integrated with the FAA Aviation Management System. The real drive for change in the NAS will to come from both UAS operators and the government jointly seeing an accurate forecast of UAS usage demand data. This solid forecast information would truly get the attention of planners. This requires not an aggregate demand, but rather a picture of how the demand is spread across small to large UAS, how it is spread across a wide range of missions, how it is expected over time and where, in terms of geospatial locations, will the demand appear. In 2012 the Volpe Center performed a study of the overall future demand for UAS. This was done by aggregate classes of aircraft types. However, the realistic expected demand will appear in clusters of aircraft activities grouped by similar missions on a smaller geographical footprint and then growing from those small cells. In general, there is not a demand forecast that is tightly coupled to the real purpose of the mission requirements (e.g. in terms of real locations and physical structures such as wind mills to inspect, farms to survey, pipelines to patrol, etc.). Being able to present a solid basis for the demand is crucial to getting the attention of investment, government and other fiscal planners. To this end, Mosaic ATM under NASA guidance is developing a crowd sourced, demand forecast engine that can draw forecast details from commercial and government users and vendors. These forecasts will be vetted by a governance panel and then provide for a sharable accurate set of projection data. Our paper describes the project and the technical approach we are using to design and create access for users to the forecast system.

Ground effects in FAA's Integrated Noise Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

The lateral attenuation algorithm in the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Integrated Noise Model (INM) has historically been based on the two regression equations described in the Society of Automotive Engineers' (SAE) Aerospace Information Re...

Aviation Safety: FAA Generally Agrees With But is Slow in Implementing Safety Recommendations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-09-23

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), within the Department of : Transportation (DOT), is responsible for promoting safety in civil air : transportation. General Accounting Office (GAO) and DOT's Office of Inspector : General review FAA's safety...

14 CFR 145.223 - FAA inspections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) SCHOOLS AND... compliance with this chapter. (b) A certificated repair station may not contract for the performance of a... noncertificated person that the FAA may make an inspection and observe the performance of the noncertificated...

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Reauthorization : an overview of legislative action in the 111th Congress

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-08

This report tracks the status of ongoing legislative action and debate related to FAA : reauthorization. It is organized into six major program areas: aviation system finance; airport : financing; FAA management and organizational issues; system capa...

NASA-FAA-NOAA Partnering Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colantonio, Ron

2003-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides an overview of NASA-FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) collaboration efforts particularly in the area of aviation and aircraft safety. Five technology areas are being jointly by these agencies: (1) aviation weather information; (2) weather products; (3) automet technologies; (4) forward looking weather sensors and (5) turbulence controls and mitigation systems. Memorandum of Agreements (MOU) between these agencies are reviewed. A general review of the pros and pitfalls of inter-agency collaborations is also presented.

Aviation rulemaking : incomplete implementation impaired FAA's reform efforts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-07-01

This is the statement of Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure before the Subcommittee on Aviation, Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Issues, House of Representatives regarding the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA...

14 CFR 169.5 - FAA determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false FAA determination. 169.5 Section 169.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) AIRPORTS... facility is reasonably necessary for use in air commerce or in the interests of national defense; that it...

14 CFR 169.5 - FAA determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false FAA determination. 169.5 Section 169.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) AIRPORTS... facility is reasonably necessary for use in air commerce or in the interests of national defense; that it...

14 CFR 169.5 - FAA determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false FAA determination. 169.5 Section 169.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) AIRPORTS... facility is reasonably necessary for use in air commerce or in the interests of national defense; that it...

14 CFR 169.5 - FAA determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA determination. 169.5 Section 169.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) AIRPORTS... facility is reasonably necessary for use in air commerce or in the interests of national defense; that it...

14 CFR 169.5 - FAA determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false FAA determination. 169.5 Section 169.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) AIRPORTS... facility is reasonably necessary for use in air commerce or in the interests of national defense; that it...

FAA/NASA Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research 1994-1995

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remer, J. H.

1998-01-01

The Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research (JUP) is a coordinated set of three grants co-sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Under JUP, three institutions: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton, and Ohio Universities receive research grants and collaborate with FAA and NASA in defining and performing civil aeronautics research in a multitude of areas. Some of these disciplines are artificial intelligence, control theory, atmospheric hazards, navigation, avionics, human factors, flight dynamics, air traffic management, and electronic communications.

Report on FAA's Alleged Discrimination Against White Males

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-11-08

This report responds to a complaint received by the Office of Inspector General (OIG), Department of Transportation (DOT), alleging the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) discriminated against white males, wasted funds, and compromised safety.

14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A Appendix A to Part 415 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part 415—FAA...

14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A Appendix A to Part 415 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part 415—FAA...

A Relocatable Environmental Prediction System for Volcanic Ash Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, J.; Geiszler, D.

2009-12-01

Timeliness is an essential component for any system generating volcanic ash forecasts for aviation. Timeliness implies that the steps required for estimating the concentration of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are streamlined into a process that can accurately identify the volcano’s source function, utilize atmospheric conditions to predict the movement of the volcanic ash plume, and ultimately produce a volcanic ash forecast product in a useable format for aviation interests. During the past decade, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has developed a suite of software integrated with the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) that is designed with a similar automated purpose in support of the Navy’s operational (24/7) schedule and diverse mission requirements worldwide. The COAMPS-OS® (On-demand System) provides web-based interfaces to COAMPS that allows Navy users to rapidly (in a few minutes) set up and start a new forecast in response to short-fused requests. A unique capability in COAMPS unlike many regional numerical weather prediction models is the option to initialize a volcanic ash plume and use the model’s full three-dimensional atmospheric grid (e.g. winds and precipitation) to predict the movement and concentration of the plume. This paper will describe the efforts to automate volcanic ash forecasts using COAMPS-OS including the specification of the source function, initialization and configuration of COAMPS, and generation of output products for aviation. This research is in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA. COAMPS® and COAMPS-OS® are registered trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory.

Updated lateral attenuation in FAA's Integrated Noise Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-08-27

The lateral attenuation algorithm in the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Integrated Noise Model (INM) has historically been based on the two regression equations described in the Society of Automotive Engineers' (SAE) Aerospace Information Re...

FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1988-1999.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-02-01

in the 48 contiguous States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Excluded fromn the data base is activity in Alaska, other U.S...passengerl miles increased b%-’"’. 17.2 percent. Traffic in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, ., Ihio wevr, haid slower growth with passenger...trip length for Hawaii/Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands is expected to remain constant at 98.0 miles over the forecast period. The average industry load

NDE research efforts at the FAA Center for Aviation Systems Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Donald O.; Brasche, Lisa J. H.

1992-01-01

The Federal Aviation Administration-Center for Aviation Systems Reliability (FAA-CASR), a part of the Institute for Physical Research and Technology at Iowa State University, began operation in the Fall of 1990 with funding from the FAA. The mission of the FAA-CASR is to develop quantitative nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods for aircraft structures and materials including prototype instrumentation, software, techniques, and procedures and to develop and maintain comprehensive education and training programs in aviation specific inspection procedures and practices. To accomplish this mission, FAA-CASR brings together resources from universities, government, and industry to develop a comprehensive approach to problems specific to the aviation industry. The problem areas are targeted by the FAA, aviation manufacturers, the airline industry and other members of the aviation business community. This consortium approach ensures that the focus of the efforts is on relevant problems and also facilitates effective transfer of the results to industry.

14 CFR 155.13 - Determinations by FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Determinations by FAA. 155.13 Section 155.13 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED... it might prejudice the needs and interests of the armed forces. Upon a determination that the release...

76 FR 7893 - FAA Policy Statement on Expungement of Certain Enforcement Actions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-11

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration FAA Policy Statement on Expungement of Certain Enforcement Actions AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration, DOT. ACTION: Policy statement... policy. On August 1, 2010, the Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 2010...

The Fanconi anemia pathway requires FAA phosphorylation and FAA/FAC nuclear accumulation

PubMed Central

Yamashita, Takayuki; Kupfer, Gary M.; Naf, Dieter; Suliman, Ahmed; Joenje, Hans; Asano, Shigetaka; D’Andrea, Alan D.

1998-01-01

Fanconi anemia (FA) is an autosomal recessive cancer susceptibility syndrome with at least eight complementation groups (A–H). Two FA genes, corresponding to complementation groups A and C, have been cloned, but the function of the FAA and FAC proteins remains unknown. We have recently shown that the FAA and FAC proteins bind and form a nuclear complex. In the current study, we analyzed the FAA and FAC proteins in normal lymphoblasts and lymphoblasts from multiple FA complementation groups. In contrast to normal controls, FA cells derived from groups A, B, C, E, F, G, and H were defective in the formation of the FAA/FAC protein complex, the phosphorylation of the FAA protein, and the accumulation of the FAA/FAC protein complex in the nucleus. These biochemical events seem to define a signaling pathway required for the maintenance of genomic stability and normal hematopoiesis. Our results support the idea that multiple gene products cooperate in the FA Pathway. PMID:9789045

FAA Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1981-1992

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

34" 0 -~~ < ~ -<. .• • • 1at1 Sep;ember 1980 . ; I f’,AA LEV· ~=~~ ~ ~ l~i; n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1981-1992 I!:-, I )r• p ulll\\1𔃻...212. No. of Pages 22. Prie Unclassified ] Unclassified 69 /V 0 Neil E. Goldschmidt, T Secretary, Department of Transportation _ o Langhorne Bond...percentTese lareficraft are poing ar eto above 1979 levels at 2.1 billion miles according toT h e s e la rg e r a irc ra f t a re p ro v in g a tt ra

Aviation Safety: FAA Oversight of Repair Stations Needs Improvement

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-10-24

This report by the General Accounting Office examines the Federal Aviation : Administration's (FAA) oversight of the aviation repair station industry. : Specifically, this report addresses the following questions: (1) What is the : nature and scope o...

Aviation Safety: Targeting and Training of FAA's Safety Inspector Workforce

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-04-30

This is the statement of Gerald L. Dillingham, Associate Director, : Transportation and Telecommunications Issues, Resources, Community, and : Economic Development Division, General Accounting Office, on the Federal : Aviation Administration's (FAA) ...

14 CFR 14.28 - Review by FAA decisionmaker.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Review by FAA decisionmaker. 14.28 Section 14.28 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES IMPLEMENTING THE EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE ACT OF 1980 Procedures for Considering Applications...

14 CFR 14.28 - Review by FAA decisionmaker.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review by FAA decisionmaker. 14.28 Section 14.28 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES IMPLEMENTING THE EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE ACT OF 1980 Procedures for Considering Applications...

14 CFR 14.28 - Review by FAA decisionmaker.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Review by FAA decisionmaker. 14.28 Section 14.28 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES IMPLEMENTING THE EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE ACT OF 1980 Procedures for Considering Applications...

14 CFR 14.28 - Review by FAA decisionmaker.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Review by FAA decisionmaker. 14.28 Section 14.28 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES IMPLEMENTING THE EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE ACT OF 1980 Procedures for Considering Applications...

14 CFR 14.28 - Review by FAA decisionmaker.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Review by FAA decisionmaker. 14.28 Section 14.28 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES IMPLEMENTING THE EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE ACT OF 1980 Procedures for Considering Applications...

75 FR 6433 - Federal Aviation Administration

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-09

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Availability of a Draft... 9, West Chicago, IL AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of... Surveillance Radar, Model 9, West Chicago, Illinois. SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA...

Environmental Compliance Assessment Protocol - Federal Aviation Administration (ECAP - FAA)

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-10-01

wastewaters with applicable CAS numbers (mg/L) Notes (mg/kg) Notes U063 Dibenzo(a.h)anthracene (CAS 53-70-3) 0.055 (2) 8.2 ( 1 ) U066 1,2-Dibromo-3- chloropropane ...ý10910 b 301/587-8202 *~ 46 Centimeter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1213 14 15mm 1 2 3 4 5 Inches 1.01W11102.8 12.5 132 Al I VO 11112.III ’*’ IIGU 1.25...of checklists that show legal 1 %.) requirements and list specific items or operations to review. =ri ECAP-FAA incorporates existing checklists from

NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Dean; Ratvasky, Thomas; Bernstein, Ben; McDonough, Frank; Strapp, J. Walter

1998-01-01

During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

FAA-NASA Sixth International Conference on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-12-01

Administration, and Colin G. Drury , State University of New York at Buffalo The Aging Aircraft Nondestructive Inspection Validation Center - A R esource for...William T. Shepherd FAA-Office of Aviation Medicine Washington, DC and Colin G. Drury State University of New York at Buffalo Buffalo, NY INTRODUCTION FAA’s...improvement, changing the task, the operator (inspector), machine, or environment as appropriate, e.g., review in Drury , 1992 (Ref. 1). 2. From the

Evaluation of NCAR Icing/SLD Forecasts, Tools and Techniques Used During The 1998 NASA SLD Flight Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernstein, Ben C.

2001-01-01

Supercooled Large Droplet (SLD) icing conditions were implicated in at least one recent aircraft crash, and have been associated with other aircraft incidents. Inflight encounters with SLD can result in ice accreting on unprotected areas of the wing where it can not be removed. Because this ice can adversely affect flight characteristics of some aircraft, there has been concern about flight safety in these conditions. The FAA held a conference on in-flight icing in 1996 where the state of knowledge concerning SLD was explored. One outcome of these meetings was an identified need to acquire SLD flight research data, particularly in the Great Lakes Region. The flight research data was needed by the FAA to develop a better understanding of the meteorological characteristics associated with SLD and facilitate an assessment of existing aircraft icing certification regulations with respect to SLD. In response to this need, NASA, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) conducted a cooperative icing flight research program to acquire SLD flight research data. The NASA Glenn Research Center's Twin Otter icing research aircraft was flown throughout the Great Lakes region during the winters of 1996-97 and 1997-98 to acquire SLD icing and meteorological data. The NASA Twin Otter was instrumented to measure cloud microphysical properties (particle size, LWC (Liquid Water Content), temperature, etc.), capture images of wing and tail ice accretion, and then record the resultant effect on aircraft performance due to the ice accretion. A satellite telephone link enabled the researchers onboard the Twin Otter to communicate with NCAR meteorologists. who provided real-time guidance into SLD icing conditions. NCAR meteorologists also provided preflight SLD weather forecasts that were used to plan the research flights, and served as on-board researchers. This document contains an evaluation of the tools and techniques NCAR

Fuel Storage Tanks at FAA Facilities: Order 1050.15A

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-04-30

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has over 4,000 fuel storage tanks (FST) in its : inventory. Most of these FSTs are underground storage tanks (UST) that contain fuel for : emergency backup generators providing secondary power to air navigati...

Index of FAA Office of Aviation Medicine Reports: 1961 through 1993

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-01-01

DOT/F~~J~94 11 Index of FAA Office of Office Of Aviation Medicine Aviation M edicine Reports: Washington, D.C. 20591 1961 through 1993 AD-A275 913 lI...and SubMle 5. Report Dab Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine Reports: January 1994 1961 through 1993 6. Pwe ng Organization Code 7. Autho(s) 6...Covered Office of Aviation Medicine Federal Aviation Administration 800 Independence Avenue, S.W. Washington, DC 20591 14. Sponsorg Agency Code 1S. &Su

FHWA travel analysis framework : development of VMT forecasting models for use by the Federal Highway Administration

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-12

This document details the process that the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe) used to develop travel forecasting models for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The purpose of these models is to allow FHWA to forecast future c...

Inspection Report: FAA's Alleged Circumvention of National Performance Review Staffing Requirements

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-12-09

This report responds to a complaint received by the Office of Inspector General : (OIG), Department of Transportation. The complainant alleges the Federal : Aviation Administration (FAA) planned to circumvent National Performance : Review (NPR) staff...

Management Advisory Memorandum of FAA Service Agreement, JFK Control Tower

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-02-12

This Management Advisory Memorandum is in response to the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) request to audit costs claimed for Fiscal Year (FY) 1995 by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (Port Authority) related to Contract No. DTFA0...

76 FR 2745 - Federal Aviation Administration

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-14

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Eighty-Fourth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 159: Global Positioning System (GPS) AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of RTCA Special Committee 159 meeting: Global Positioning System (GPS). SUMMARY: The FAA is...

Advisory Circular checklist and status of other FAA publications for sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-08-15

This 1996 circular transmits the revised checklist of the Federal Aviation : Administration's (FAA) Advisory Circulars (AC's). It also lists certain other : FAA publications sold by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government : Printing Office (...

Spectral Classes for FAA's Integrated Noise Model Version 6.0.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-07

The starting point in any empirical model such as the Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) : Integrated Noise Model (INM) is a reference data base. In Version 5.2 and in previous versions : the reference data base consisted solely of a set of no...

Preliminary human factors findings from the FAA Capstone 3 electronic flight bag : airport surface moving map operational evaluation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-05-02

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Runway Safety is interested in understanding the impact of an airport moving map with ownship position on operational usability and safety. To gather data on the use of this technology, the FAA is s...

Aviation Acquisition: A Comprehensive Strategy Is Needed for Cultural Change at FAA

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-08-22

The Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) timely acquisition of new air : traffic control equipment has become increasingly critical for aviation safety : and efficiency. However, persistent acquisition problems raise questions about : the agency's...

Index to FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine reports : 1961 through 2004.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aerospace Medicine Reports (1964-2004) and : Civil Aeromedical Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine and : related activities. The index lists all FAA a...

Index to FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine reports : 1961 through 2002.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aerospace Medicine Reports (1964-2002) : and Civil Aeromedical Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented for those engaged in aviation : medicine and related activities. The index lists all FAA A...

Index to FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine Reports : 1961 Through 2006

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aerospace Medicine Reports (1964-2006) and Civil : Aeromedical Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine and related : activities. The index lists all FAA a...

Index to FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine reports : 1961 through 2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aerospace Medicine Reports (1964-2008) and Civil : Aeromedical Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine and related : activities. The index lists all FAA a...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1999.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1999) and : Civil Aeromedical Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine : and related activities. The index lists all FAA av...

14 CFR 11.23 - Does FAA follow the same procedures in issuing all types of rules?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Does FAA follow the same procedures in issuing all types of rules? 11.23 Section 11.23 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... authority to issue each type, and where you send petitions for FAA to adopt, amend, or repeal each type...

14 CFR 11.23 - Does FAA follow the same procedures in issuing all types of rules?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Does FAA follow the same procedures in issuing all types of rules? 11.23 Section 11.23 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... authority to issue each type, and where you send petitions for FAA to adopt, amend, or repeal each type...

Management Advisory Report on Civil Rights Matters (Sexual Harassment) Involving FAA

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-10-21

The Office of Inspector General (OIG) conducted a review of sexual harassment cases at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The objective was to determine the number of sexual harassment cases pending and resolved, including the case age, statu...

47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal Aviation...

47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal Aviation...

47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal Aviation...

47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal Aviation...

Report on FAA Deicing Program at La Guardia and O'Hare Airports

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-10-02

The Office of Inspector General, Department of Transportation; conducted a : followup inspection of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Deicing : Program. We initiated this study to observe deicing operations as a followup to : our report on th...

National airspace system : FAA reauthorization issues are critical to system transformation and operations statement of Gerald L. Dillingham, Ph.D.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-02-01

As requested, this statement discusses issues for the reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The aviation industry is in a period of economic turmoil and faces an : uncertain future. At the same time, FAA is undertaking one of ...

Aviation Safety: Opportunities Exist for FAA to Refine the Controller Staffing Process

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-04-09

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is responsible for managing the : nation's air transportation system so more than 18,000 aircraft can annually : carry 500 million passengers safely and on schedule. Because of significant : hiring in the ear...

Fuel storage tanks at FAA facilities : Order 1050.15A : executive summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-04-30

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has over 4,000 fuel storage tanks (FST) in its inventory. Most of these FSTs are underground storage tanks (UST) that contain fuel for emergency backup generators providing secondary power to air navigational...

Aviation Safety: FAA Has Begun Efforts to Make Data More Publicly Available

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-04-25

Public concern about the safety of the nation's aviation system escalated : following the crashes of ValuJet flight 592 and TWA flight 800. The Congress : and the public expressed interest in having the Federal Aviation Administration : (FAA) publish...

47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. Link to an amendment published at 79 FR 56986, Sept...

FAA's alleged unsatisfactory coordination and improper fund control of occupational safety and health programs

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-27

This report responds to a complaint received by the Office of Inspector : General (OIG), Department of Transportation, concerning unsatisfactory program coordination and budget control activities between the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Off...

14 CFR 11.73 - How does FAA process petitions for rulemaking?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false How does FAA process petitions for rulemaking? 11.73 Section 11.73 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF... dismiss your petition. Your comments and arguments for a rule change will be placed in a database, which...

Procedures for Completion and Use of FAA Form 8130-3, Airworthiness Approval Tag

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-01-03

This order revises the procedures contained in Order 8130.21, Completion and Use of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Form 8130-3, Airworthiness Approval Tag (herein referred to as "the form") dated June 21, 1991. : Specifically, this revision co...

FAA/NASA Proceedings, Workshop on Wake Vortex Alleviation and Avoidance. Presented at the U.S. Department of Transportation Research and Special Programs Administration Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA 02142, November 28-29, 1978.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-10-01

This document is a record of the joint FAA/NASA Workshop on Wake Vortex Alleviation and Avoidance conducted at the DOT Transportation Systems Center, November 28-29, 1978. The workshop was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration to apprise t...

47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. Link to an amendment published...

47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

FAA Financing: Issues and Options in Deciding to Reinstate or Replace the Airline Ticket Tax

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-02-04

On December 31, 1996, the government's authority to collect the taxes that : finance the Airport and Airway Trust Fund, which has historically provided about : three-quarters of Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) funding, lapsed. In : December...

Aviation Safety: Weaknesses in Inspection and Enforcement Limit FAA in Identifying and Responding to Risks

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-02-27

This General Accounting Office report examines (1) the outcomes of the Federal : Aviation Administration's (FAA) inspection process in fiscal years 1990 through : 1996 and how this process could be strengthened to better assess and encourage : compli...

The FAA's Approach to Quality Assurance in the Flight Safety Analysis of Launch and Reentry Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, Daniel P.; Weil, Andre

2010-09-01

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation’s safety mission is to ensure protection of the public, property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States during commercial launch and reentry activities. As part of this mission, the FAA issues licenses to the operators of launch and reentry vehicles who successfully demonstrate compliance with FAA regulations. To meet these regulations, vehicle operators submit an application that contains, among other things, flight safety analyses of their proposed missions. In the process of evaluating these submitted analyses, the FAA often conducts its own independent analyses, using input data from the submitted license application. These analyses are conducted according to approved procedures using industry developed tools. To assist in achieving the highest levels of quality in these independent analyses, the FAA has developed a quality assurance program that consists of multiple levels of review. These reviews rely on the work of multiple teams, as well as additional, independently performed work of support contractors. This paper describes the FAA’s quality assurance process for flight safety analyses. Members of the commercial space industry may find that elements of this process can be easily applied to their own analyses, improving the quality of the material they submit to the FAA in their license applications.

National Airspace System : persistent problems in FAA's new navigation system highlight need for periodic reevaluation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-06-01

Currently, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) relies principally on a ground-based navigation system that uses various types of equipment to assist pilots in navigating their assigned routes and to provide them with guidance for landing their ...

FAA Pilot Knowledge Tests: Learning or Rote Memorization?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Casner, Stephen M.; Jones, Karen M.; Puentes, Antonio; Irani, Homi

2004-01-01

The FAA pilot knowledge test is a multiple-choice assessment tool designed to measure the extent to which applicants for FAA pilot certificates and ratings have mastered a corpus of required aeronautical knowledge. All questions that appear on the test are drawn from a database of questions that is made available to the public. The FAA and others are concerned that releasing test questions may encourage students to focus their study on memorizing test questions. To investigate this concern, we created our own database of questions that differed from FAA questions in four different ways. Our first three question types were derived by modifying existing FAA questions: (1) rewording questions and answers; (2) shuffling answers; and (3) substituting different figures for problems that used figures. Our last question type posed a question about required knowledge for which no FAA question currently exists. Forty-eight student pilots completed one of two paper-and-pencil knowledge tests that contained a mix of these experimental questions. The results indicate significantly lower scores for some question types when compared to unaltered FAA questions to which participants had prior access.

Improving the continued airworthiness of civil aircraft : a strategy for the FAA's Aircraft Certification Service

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

The National Research Council (NRC) was asked to conduct an independent assessment of the safety management process used by the Aircraft Certification Service of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to define how the current process might be imp...

Airport and airway trust fund : effects of the trust fund taxes' lapsing on FAA's budget

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-04-15

The Airport and Airway Trust Fund (Trust Fund) was established by the : Airport and Airway Revenue Act of 1970 (P.L. 91-258) to finance the : Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) investments in the airport and : airway system. The act further prov...

76 FR 44978 - Notice of FAA Intent To Carry Over Airport Improvement Program (AIP) Entitlement Funds

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-27

... Administration, DOT. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: By 12 p.m. prevailing local time on Friday, August 12, 2011... and local laws. The FAA is hereby notifying all sponsors that by 12 p.m. prevailing local time on...

Air traffic control : FAA enhanced the controller-in-charge program, but more comprehensive evaluation is needed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-10-01

In negotiating its 1998 collective bargaining agreement with its controllers' union (the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, or NATCA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) agreed to a national plan that would reduce by attrition the n...

An Investigation Into Criteria Commonly Used by the FAA to Grant Relief to Part 135 Operators Under FAR Sections: 135.213, 135.219, and/or 135.225

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Louis J.; Heck, Michael L.; Burgess, Malcolm A.; Stough, H. P. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the criteria commonly used by the FAA to grant waivers, exemptions, or deviations to FAR Part 135, Sections 135.213, 135.219, and 135.225 and the potential impact on Flight Information Services Data Link (FISDL) implementation. These aviation regulations address the requirements for the use of weather reports or forecasts when conducting operations under FAR Part 135. In this study a literature search was conducted to obtain historical records of requests for relief from the 3 FAR sections under consideration. The exemption request records were then analyzed in order to determine the reasons given by the FAA for either granting or denying the request. In addition, FAA personnel and Part 135 operators were interviewed to determine the procedures used for satisfying the requirements of the 3 FAR sections.

FAA aircraft certification human factors and operations checklist for standalone GPS receivers (TSO C129 Class A)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-04-01

This document is a checklist designed to assist Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) certification personnel and global : positioning system (GPS) receiver manufacturers in the evaluation of the pilot-system interface characteristlcs of GPS : recieve...

Management Advisory on Deployment Readiness Review - Federal Aviation Administration

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-08

This management advisory discusses the best practices identified during our review of the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Deployment Readiness Review (DRR) process which should be adopted and strengthened as part of FAA's new Acquisition Mana...

76 FR 78966 - Federal Aviation Administration

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-20

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Approval of Noise Compatibility Program for Kona International Airport at Keahole, Keahole, North Kona, HI AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration, DOT. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announces its findings on...

75 FR 12809 - Federal Aviation Administration

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-17

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Intent To Rule on Request...: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of Request to Release Airport Property. SUMMARY... Nicely, Manager, Federal Aviation Administration, Southwest Region, Airports Division, Texas Airports...

78 FR 25524 - Federal Aviation Administration

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-01

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Request To Release Airport Property AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of Intent to Rule on Request to... address: Lynn D. Martin, Airports Compliance Specialist, Federal Aviation Administration, Airports...

FAA's Implementation of the Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004- The Experimental Permit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Repcheck, J. Randall

2005-12-01

A number of entrepreneurs are committed to the goal of developing and operating reusable launch vehicles for private human space travel. In order to promote this emerging industry, and to create a clear legal, regulatory, and safety regime, the United States (U.S.) Congress passed the Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004 (CSLAA). Signed on December 23, 2004 by U.S. President George W. Bush, the CSLAA makes the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) responsible for regulating human spaceflight. The CSLAA, among other things, establishes an experimental permit regime for developmental reusable suborbital rockets. This paper describes the FAA's approach in developing guidelines for obtaining and maintaining an experimental permit, and describes the core safety elements of those guidelines.

A qualitative phenomenological study: Enhanced, risk-based FAA oversight on part 145 maintenance practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, Bryan G.

The purpose of this qualitative phenomenological study was to examine the phenomenon of enhanced, risk-based Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) oversight of Part 145 repair stations that performed aircraft maintenance for Part 121 air carriers between 2007 and 2014 in Oklahoma. Specifically, this research was utilized to explore what operational changes have occurred in the domestic Part 145 repair station industry such as variations in management or hiring practices, training, recordkeeping and technical data, inventory and aircraft parts supply-chain logistics, equipment, and facilities. After interviewing 12 managers from Part 145 repair stations in Oklahoma, six major theme codes emerged from the data: quality of oversight before 2007, quality of oversight after 2007, advantages of oversight, disadvantages of oversight, status quo of oversight, and process improvement . Of those six major theme codes, 17 subthemes appeared from the data that were used to explain the phenomenon of enhanced oversight in the Part 145 repair station industry. Forty-two percent of the participants indicated a weak FAA oversight system that has hindered the continuous process improvement program in their repair stations. Some of them were financially burdened after hiring additional full-time quality assurance inspectors to specifically manage enhanced FAA oversight. Notwithstanding, the participants of the study indicated that the FAA must apply its surveillance on a more standardized and consistent basis. They want to see this standardization in how FAA inspectors interpret regulations and practice the same quality of oversight for all repair stations, particularly those that are repeat violators and fail to comply with federal aviation regulations. They believed that when the FAA enforces standardization on a consistent basis, repair stations can become more efficient and safer in the performance of their scope of work for the U.S. commercial air transportation industry.

77 FR 64837 - Federal Aviation Administration

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-23

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Fourth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 227, Standards of Navigation Performance AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S... Operations Group, Federal Aviation Administration. [FR Doc. 2012-26034 Filed 10-22-12; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE...

78 FR 13395 - Federal Aviation Administration

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-27

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Availability of Draft...: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of availability and request for comments... 4. U.S. Mail: Leslie Grey--AAL-614, Federal Aviation Administration, Airports Division, 222 West 7th...

78 FR 41183 - Federal Aviation Administration

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-09

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Meeting: RTCA Program Management Committee AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION... Operations Group, Federal Aviation Administration. [FR Doc. 2013-16464 Filed 7-8-13; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE...

Free Industry Flight Training of Inspectors - Federal Aviation Administration

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-09

This is our final report on the audit of Free Industry Flight Training of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) flight standards" inspectors. We concluded that FAA's Aircrew Designated Examiner Program (Program), which is dependent on a "quid pro quo...

FAA Alleged Waste and Mismanagement of Air Route Traffic Control Centers Critical and Essential Power Systems Project

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-10-16

The Office of Inspector General (OIG) reviewed a complaint from Congressman Deal on behalf of a constituent. The constituent alleged waste and mismanagement occurred in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Air Route Traffic Control Centers Criti...

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Reauthorization: An Overview of Legislative Action in the 111th Congress

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-22

airports would be encouraged to assess their energy requirements, including heating and cooling , base load, back- up power, and power for on-road...available under the AIP or PFC programs. The trial program is to encourage compatible land uses with the airport and generate economic benefits to both...prevents the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority from applying for AIP or PFC grants after October 1, 2008. . FAA Reauthorization: An Overview of

FAA Financial Requirements

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-04

In June 1995, the FAA developed a "total requirements" estimate for the period : FY 97-FY 02 to help explain the difficulty of supporting a dynamic, growing : aviation industry under a federal budget picture which projected flat or reduced : funding ...

78 FR 25337 - Federal Aviation Administration

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-30

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Agency Information Collection Activities: Requests for Comments; Clearance of Renewed Approval of Information Collection: Operations Specifications AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice and request for comments...

Comparison study on flexible pavement design using FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and LCN (Load Classification Number) code in Ahmad Yani international airport’s runway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoso, S. E.; Sulistiono, D.; Mawardi, A. F.

2017-11-01

FAA code for airport design has been broadly used by Indonesian Ministry of Aviation since decades ago. However, there is not much comprehensive study about its relevance and efficiency towards current situation in Indonesia. Therefore, a further comparison study on flexible pavement design for airport runway using comparable method has become essential. The main focus of this study is to compare which method between FAA and LCN that offer the most efficient and effective way in runway pavement planning. The comparative methods in this study mainly use the variety of variable approach. FAA code for instance, will use the approach on the aircraft’s maximum take-off weight and annual departure. Whilst LCN code use the variable of equivalent single wheel load and tire pressure. Based on the variables mentioned above, a further classification and rated method will be used to determine which code is best implemented. According to the analysis, it is clear that FAA method is the most effective way to plan runway design in Indonesia with consecutively total pavement thickness of 127cm and LCN method total pavement thickness of 70cm. Although, FAA total pavement is thicker that LCN its relevance towards sustainable and pristine condition in the future has become an essential aspect to consider in design and planning.

78 FR 63276 - Interim Policy, FAA Review of Solar Energy System Projects on Federally Obligated Airports

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-23

.... Background There is growing interest in installing solar photovoltaic (PV) and solar hot water (SHW) systems on airports. While solar PV or SHW systems (henceforth referred to as solar energy systems) are... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Interim Policy, FAA Review of Solar...

FAA/NASA UAS Traffic Management Pilot Program (UPP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Ronald D.; Kopardekar, Parimal H.; Rios, Joseph L.

2018-01-01

NASA Ames is leading ATM R&D organization. NASA started working on UTM in 2012, it's come a long way primarily due to close relationship with FAA and industry. We have a research transition team between FAA and NASA for UTM. We have a few other RTTs as well. UTM is a great example of collaborative innovation, and now it's reaching very exciting stage of UTM Pilot Project (UPP). NASA is supporting FAA and industry to make the UPP most productive and successful.

FAA Helicopter/Heliport Research, Engineering, and Development Bibiliography, 1964-1986.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-11-01

Systems Control Technology) FAA/RD-82/16 FAA/PM-85/8 BURNHAM, DAVID C. (Transportation System Center) FAA-RD-78-143 21 CHAMBEKS, HAiR (Y W. (FAA Tecnnical...prediction methods for drive engines, gearboxes, jets with and without bypass flow, as well as noise reduction and performance losses for partly sonic inlets...engines, single stream and coaxial Jets, and gearboxes are also included, as well as noise reduction and performance loss *s of partly sonic inlet& and

Potential Cost Savings Ideas for FAA and Users

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-04

The intent of this paper is to catalogue potential cost-savings ideas which : impact both the FAA and the aviation community. These ideas have come from : various sources including MITRE, Coopers & Lybrand (C&L), FAA studies, General : Accounting Off...

14 CFR 11.27 - Are there other ways FAA collects specific rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM? 11.27 Section 11.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES... before we issue an NPRM? Yes, the FAA obtains advice and recommendations from rulemaking advisory...

14 CFR 11.27 - Are there other ways FAA collects specific rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM? 11.27 Section 11.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES... before we issue an NPRM? Yes, the FAA obtains advice and recommendations from rulemaking advisory...

14 CFR 11.27 - Are there other ways FAA collects specific rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM? 11.27 Section 11.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES... before we issue an NPRM? Yes, the FAA obtains advice and recommendations from rulemaking advisory...

14 CFR 11.27 - Are there other ways FAA collects specific rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM? 11.27 Section 11.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES... before we issue an NPRM? Yes, the FAA obtains advice and recommendations from rulemaking advisory...

14 CFR 11.27 - Are there other ways FAA collects specific rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM? 11.27 Section 11.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES... before we issue an NPRM? Yes, the FAA obtains advice and recommendations from rulemaking advisory...

FAA Vertical Flight Bibliography, 1962 - 1994

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-08-01

high altitude conditions. A UH-1H aircraft will be used. This project is similar to the work documented in FAA/CT-TN87/40 "Heliport Approach and... work . TITLE: TEST PLAN FOR HELICOPTER VISUAL SEGMENT APPROACH LIGHTING SYSTEM (HALS) REPORT #: FAA/CT-TN88/19 NTIS: N/ A DATE: November 1988 AUTHORS...Hiering, Robert H. Ahlers) (NTIS: N/ A ) RD-64-4 State-of-the-Art Survey for Minimum Approach , Landing and Takeoff Intervals as Dictated by Wakes

Next generation air transportation system : issues associated with midterm implementation of capabilities and full system transformation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-01

To prepare for forecasted air traffic : growth, the Federal Aviation : Administration (FAA), including its : Joint Planning and Development : Office (JPDO) and Air Traffic : Organization (ATO), is planning for : and implementing the Next : Generation...

Implementation of the FAA research and development electromagnetic database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcdowall, R. L.; Grush, D. J.; Cook, D. M.; Glynn, M. S.

1991-01-01

The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) has been assisting the FAA in developing a database of information about lightning. The FAA Research and Development Electromagnetic Database (FRED) will ultimately contain data from a variety of airborne and ground-based lightning research projects. An outline of the data currently available in FRED is presented. The data sources which the FAA intends to incorporate into FRED are listed. In addition, it describes how the researchers may access and use the FRED menu system.

Recruiting From Within: Action-Oriented Research Solutions to Internal Student Recruitment in Collegiate Aviation Education

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

Forecasts by the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) and industry document renewed growth and demand for aviation employment. That need should be realized by increased enrollments on our aviation college campuses. Collegiate aviation education provi...

Aviation weather : FAA and the National Weather Service are considering plans to consolidate weather service offices, but face significant challenges.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-01

The National Weather Services (NWS) weather products are a vital component of the Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) air traffic control system. In addition to providing aviation weather products developed at its own facilities, NWS also pr...

NASA/FAA helicopter simulator workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larsen, William E. (Editor); Randle, Robert J., Jr. (Editor); Bray, Richard S. (Editor); Zuk, John (Editor)

1992-01-01

A workshop was convened by the FAA and NASA for the purpose of providing a forum at which leading designers, manufacturers, and users of helicopter simulators could initiate and participate in a development process that would facilitate the formulation of qualification standards by the regulatory agency. Formal papers were presented, special topics were discussed in breakout sessions, and a draft FAA advisory circular defining specifications for helicopter simulators was presented and discussed. A working group of volunteers was formed to work with the National Simulator Program Office to develop a final version of the circular. The workshop attracted 90 individuals from a constituency of simulator manufacturers, training organizations, the military, civil regulators, research scientists, and five foreign countries.

Space weather forecasting with a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Butala, M.; Wilson, B. D.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.

2016-07-01

The goal of the Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) program is to improve space weather specification and forecasting with ensemble modeling. Space weather can have detrimental effects on a variety of civilian and military systems and operations, and many of the applications pertain to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. Space weather can affect over-the-horizon radars, HF communications, surveying and navigation systems, surveillance, spacecraft charging, power grids, pipelines, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA's) Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). Because of its importance, numerous space weather forecasting approaches are being pursued, including those involving empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. Clearly, if there are sufficient data, the data assimilation modeling approach is expected to be the most reliable, but different data assimilation models can produce different results. Therefore, like the meteorology community, we created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (ITE) system that is based on different data assimilation models. The MEPS ensemble is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models for the ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and middle to low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics. Hence, multiple data assimilation models can be used to describe each region. A selected storm event that was reconstructed with four different data assimilation models covering the middle and low latitude ionosphere is presented and discussed. In addition, the effect of different data types on the reconstructions is shown.

FAA Aviation Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-02-01

MKK) Daytona Beach, FL (DAB) Boise, ID (BOI) Fort Lauderdale, FL (FLL) Idaho Falls Fanning Field, ID (IDA) Fort Lauderdale Executive, FL (FXE... Lewiston , ID (LWS) Fort Myers Page Field, FL (FMY) Pocatello, ID (PIH) Fort Myers Regional, FL (RSW) Twin Falls, ID (TWF) Fort Pierce, FL (FPR) Alton St... Idaho (SUN) 6. Marion Williamson County, Illinois (MWA) 7. Waukegan, Illinois (UGN) 8. Topeka-Phillip Ballard, Kansas (TOP) 9. Owensboro-Daviees County

Next generation air transportation system : status of transformation and issues associated with midterm implementation of capabilities.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-01

"To prepare for forecasted air traffic growth, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), including its Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) and Air Traffic Organization (ATO), is planning for and implementing the Next Generation Air Transpor...

An Enhanced Convective Forecast (ECF) for the New York TRACON Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark; Stobie, James; Gillen, Robert; Jedlovec, Gary; Sims, Danny

2008-01-01

In an effort to relieve summer-time congestion in the NY Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) area, the FAA is testing an enhanced convective forecast (ECF) product. The test began in June 2008 and is scheduled to run through early September. The ECF is updated every two hours, right before the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) national planning telcon. It is intended to be used by traffic managers throughout the National Airspace System (NAS) and airlines dispatchers to supplement information from the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) and the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS). The ECF begins where the current CIWS forecast ends at 2 hours and extends out to 12 hours. Unlike the CCFP it is a detailed deterministic forecast with no aerial coverage limits. It is created by an ENSCO forecaster using a variety of guidance products including, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. This is the same version of the WRF that ENSCO runs over the Florida peninsula in support of launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center. For this project, the WRF model domain has been shifted to the Northeastern US. Several products from the NASA SPoRT group are also used by the ENSCO forecaster. In this paper we will provide examples of the ECF products and discuss individual cases of traffic management actions using ECF guidance.

Federal Aviation Administration aging aircraft nondestructive inspection research plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seher, Chris C.

1992-01-01

This paper highlights the accomplishments and plans of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for the development of improved nondestructive evaluation (NDE) equipment, procedures, and training. The role of NDE in aircraft safety and the need for improvement are discussed. The FAA program participants, and coordination of activities within the program and with relevant organizations outside the program are also described.

32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air Traffic...

32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air Traffic...

32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air Traffic...

32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air Traffic...

32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air Traffic...

Functional Activity of the Fanconi Anemia Protein FAA Requires FAC Binding and Nuclear Localization

PubMed Central

Näf, Dieter; Kupfer, Gary M.; Suliman, Ahmed; Lambert, Kathleen; D’Andrea, Alan D.

1998-01-01

Fanconi anemia (FA) is an autosomal recessive disease characterized by genomic instability, cancer susceptibility, and cellular hypersensitivity to DNA-cross-linking agents. Eight complementation groups of FA (FA-A through FA-H) have been identified. Two FA genes, corresponding to complementation groups FA-A and FA-C, have been cloned, but the functions of the encoded FAA and FAC proteins remain unknown. We have recently demonstrated that FAA and FAC interact to form a nuclear complex. In this study, we have analyzed a series of mutant forms of the FAA protein with respect to functional activity, FAC binding, and nuclear localization. Mutation or deletion of the amino-terminal nuclear localization signal (NLS) of FAA results in loss of functional activity, loss of FAC binding, and cytoplasmic retention of FAA. Replacement of the NLS sequence with a heterologous NLS sequence, derived from the simian virus 40 T antigen, results in nuclear localization but does not rescue functional activity or FAC binding. Nuclear localization of the FAA protein is therefore necessary but not sufficient for FAA function. Mutant forms of FAA which fail to bind to FAC also fail to promote the nuclear accumulation of FAC. In addition, wild-type FAC promotes the accumulation of wild-type FAA in the nucleus. Our results suggest that FAA and FAC perform a concerted function in the cell nucleus, required for the maintenance of chromosomal stability. PMID:9742112

CBO’s Revenue Forecasting Record

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-01

1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 -10 0 10 20 30 CBO Administration CBO’s Mean Forecast Error (1.1%) Forecast Errors for CBO’s and the...Administration’s Two-Year Revenue Projections CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO CBO’s Revenue Forecasting Record NOVEMBER 2015...

Factors Contributing to Financial Aid Administrators' Job Satisfaction: NASFAA 2008 Financial Aid Administrators' Job Satisfaction Survey Results

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (NJ1), 2008

2008-01-01

In what kind of job environment are financial aid administrators (FAA) currently working? How satisfied are they with their jobs? What motivates them and what factors are considered morale dampers? How are financial aid (FA) functions viewed by campus' top administrators? Does FA get similar respect and appreciation from their campus peer offices…

The FAA's postmortem forensic toxicology self-evaluated proficiency test program: the second seven years.

PubMed

Chaturvedi, Arvind K; Craft, Kristi J; Cardona, Patrick S; Rogers, Paul B; Canfield, Dennis V

2009-05-01

During toxicological evaluations of samples from fatally injured pilots involved in civil aviation accidents, a high degree of quality control/quality assurance (QC/QA) is maintained. Under this philosophy, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) started a forensic toxicology proficiency-testing (PT) program in July 1991. In continuation of the first seven years of the PT findings reported earlier, PT findings of the next seven years are summarized herein. Twenty-eight survey samples (12 urine, 9 blood, and 7 tissue homogenate) with/without alcohols/volatiles, drugs, and/or putrefactive amine(s) were submitted to an average of 31 laboratories, of which an average of 25 participants returned their results. Analytes in survey samples were correctly identified and quantitated by a large number of participants, but some false positives of concern were reported. It is anticipated that the FAA's PT program will continue to serve the forensic toxicology community through this important part of the QC/QA for laboratory accreditations.

FAA Flight Plan 2009-2013

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

The Flight Plan is the strategic plan for the agency, the plan to help us prepare for the future. The majority of FAAs responsibilities are our core functionsour everyday roles and responsibilitieswhich are not specifically highlighted in th...

Pilot Examiner Program; Federal Aviation Administration

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-10-22

The objective of this survey was to determine the effectiveness of the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) procedures and controls over (i) training and designating pilot examiners, (ii) tracking pilot examiner performance, (iii) maintaining inte...

Guidelines for Federal Aviation Administration Regional Aviation Education Coordinators and Aviation Education Facilitators.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strickler, Mervin K., Jr.

This publication is designed to provide both policy guidance and examples of how to work with various constituencies in planning and carrying out appropriate Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) aviation education activities. Information is provided on the history of aerospace/aviation education, FAA educational materials, aerospace/aviation…

77 FR 4219 - FAA-Approved Portable Oxygen Concentrators; Technical Amendment

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-27

...-1343; Amdt. No. 121-358] FAA-Approved Portable Oxygen Concentrators; Technical Amendment AGENCY... amending regulations relating to operating rules for FAA approved portable oxygen concentrators (POC... Certain Portable Oxygen Concentrator Devices Onboard Aircraft'' (70 FR 40156). SFAR 106 permits passengers...

14 CFR 11.25 - How does FAA issue rules?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

...) Whom to call if you have questions about the rulemaking document. (5) The date, time, and place of any... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How does FAA issue rules? 11.25 Section 11... RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.25 How does FAA issue rules? (a...

Results of FAA Cabin Ozone Monitoring Program in Commercial Aircraft in 1978 and 1979.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-11-01

October 5, 1978 (5), and a final rule published on January 21, 1980 (6). The final rule applied to Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) Part 25...Occupational Saftey and Health Administration; studies conducted at the FAA’s Civil Aeromedical Institute; a review of research into the health...DEN Stapleton Intl (Denver) 39-46N 104-53W 11. DFW Dallas-Ft Worth Regional 32-54N 97-02W 12. DTW Detroit Metropolitan Wayne Company 42-13N 83-21W 13

Runways at small airports are deteriorating because of deferred maintenance: Action needed by FAA and the Congress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1982-09-01

Runways at many small airports are deteriorating faster than necessary because airport owners--usually local governments--have deferred critical maintenance. The result is damage to the runways' basic structure and a shortened useful life if they are not repaired. Based on GAO's review of 46 airports, studies by others, and the views of FAA officials, deferred maintenance is apparently a longstanding nationwide problem. Lack of funds is cited by airport owners as the primary reason for not performing needed maintenance; however, the Federal Aviation Administration's apathy to bring about satisfactory maintenance is a contributing cause. GAO is recommending actions that FAA can take to help ensure that runways at small airports are properly maintained. The Congress should recognize the airport owners' lack of resources to properly maintain airports when considering future revisions to the Airport Improvement Program.

Chapter 3 : from agency to administration.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

On March 3, 1961, NAJEEB HALABY [TERM: 03/03/61 : 07/01/65] became the second FAA Administrator. A : lawyer with significant experience as a military and civilian : pilot, and a Kennedy family friend, Halaby took over an agency : reputed, after :...

75 FR 55846 - Public Meeting/Working Group With Industry on Volcanic Ash

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-14

... operational requirements for the reporting and forecasting of volcanic eruptions and the associated ash cloud... Industry on Volcanic Ash AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of public... operational needs for Volcanic Ash information in support of aviation from stakeholders. DATES: The meeting...

Automated turbulence forecasts for aviation hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharman, R.; Frehlich, R.; Vandenberghe, F.

2010-09-01

An operational turbulence forecast system for commercial and aviation use is described that is based on an ensemble of turbulence diagnostics derived from standard NWP model outputs. In the U. S. this forecast product is named GTG (Graphical Turbulence Guidance) and has been described in detail in Sharman et al., WAF 2006. Since turbulence has many sources in the atmosphere, the ensemble approach of combining diagnostics has been shown to provide greater statistical accuracy than the use of a single diagnostic, or of a subgrid tke parameterization. GTG is sponsored by the FAA, and has undergone rigorous accuracy, safety, and usability evaluations. The GTG product is now hosted on NOAA's Aviation Data Service (ADDS), web site (http://aviationweather.gov/), for access by pilots, air traffic controllers, and dispatchers. During this talk the various turbulence diagnostics, their statistical properties, and their relative performance (based on comparisons to observations) will be presented. Importantly, the model output is ɛ1/3 (where ɛ is the eddy dissipation rate), so is aircraft independent. The diagnostics are individually and collectively calibrated so that their PDFs satisfy the expected log normal distribution of ɛ^1/3. Some of the diagnostics try to take into account the role of gravity waves and inertia-gravity waves in the turbulence generation process. Although the current GTG product is based on the RUC forecast model running over the CONUS, it is transitioning to a WRF based product, and in fact WRF-based versions are currently running operationally over Taiwan and has also been implemented for use by the French Navy in climatological studies. Yet another version has been developed which uses GFS model output to provide global turbulence forecasts. Thus the forecast product is available as a postprocessing program for WRF or other model output and provides 3D maps of turbulence likelihood of any region where NWP model data is available. Although the

Aviation and the environment : initial voluntary airport low emissions program projects reduce emissions, and FAA plans to assess the program's overall performance as participation increases.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-11-01

In 2003, Congress established a program to reduce airport ground emissions at commercial service airports in areas failing to meet or maintain air quality standards. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) administers the Voluntary Airport Low Emis...

FAA Rotorcraft Research, Engineering, and Development Bibliography 1962-1989

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-05-01

Albert G. Delucien) (NTIS: ADA 102 521) FAA/CT-88/10 Digital Systems Validation Handbook - Volume II (R.L. McDowall, Hardy P. Curd, Lloyd N. Popish... Digital Systems in Avionics and Flight Control Applications, Handbook - Volume I, (Ellis F. Hilt, Donald Eldredge, Jeff Webb, Charles Lucius, Michael S...Structure Statistics of Helicopter GPS Navigation with the Magnavox Z-Set (Robert D. Till) FAA/CT-82/115 Handbook - Volume I, Validation of Digital

Federal Air Marshal Program; Federal Aviation Administration

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-04-17

The objective of the audit was to evaluate the effectiveness of Federal Aviation : Administration's (FAA) Federal Air Marshal (FAM) Program in providing for in : flight security requirements of high risk or special circumstance U.S.JairJcarrier fligh...

Celebrating a history of excellence : Federal Aviation Administration/Civil Aviation Administration of China executive level cooperation and the agreement process.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-07-01

The Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) predecessor organization, the Department of : Commerce Aeronautics Branch took an early interest in China, as it did with other nations. As : early as November 1931, the Aeronautics Branch published pr...

Ramifications of the recent FAA rule for windshear systems on the development of forward-looking systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adamson, H. Patrick

1990-01-01

The recent Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rule requiring windshear systems with flight guidance may have severe ramifications for the development of infrared and other forward-looking systems. The industry needs to have and can have a more cost effective option through the use of a forward-looking system with a reactive backup instead of a reactive system with flight guidance. However, because of the short time for compliance with the new FAA rule, it is possible that existing transport aircraft will be in full compliance before a comprehensive investigation of all forward-looking systems can be completed. If this occurs, it is possible that the market for forward-looking systems will be severely reduced, thereby eliminating the economic incentive to develop these much needed systems. Thus, to assure that this option is available for the airlines, it beehoves the industry to immediately support an in-service evaluation of all available forward-looking systems.

FAA/NASA Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research, 1992-1993

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrell, Frederick R. (Compiler)

1994-01-01

The research conducted during the academic year 1992-1993 under the FAA/NASA sponsored Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research is summarized. The year end review was held at Ohio University, Athens, Ohio, 17-18 June 1993. The Joint University Program is a coordinated set of three grants sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration and NASA Langley Research Center, one each with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ohio University, and Princeton University. Completed works, status reports, and annotated bibliographies are presented for research topics, which include navigation, guidance, and control theory and practice, aircraft performance, human factors and air traffic management. An overview of the year's activities for each university is also presented.

Year 2000 Computing Crisis: FAA Must Act Quickly to Prevent System Failures

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-02-01

Testimony before House of Representatives on FAA's reliance on information processing, where the agency stood remained at risk, and recommendations needed to increase the likelihood that FAA systems would be Year 2000 compliant by January.

Air Traffic Control: Status of FAA's Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System Project

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-03-01

Since the early 1980s, FAA's modernization efforts have experienced lengthy : schedule delays and substantial cost overruns. Because of such problems, in : 1994, FAA restructured its acquisition of the Terminal Advanced Automation : System into more ...

Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, William N.

2006-01-01

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic

Air Traffic Control: Complete and Enforced Architecture Needed for FAA Systems Modernization

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-02-01

Because of the size, complexity, and importance of FAA's air traffic control : (ATC) modernization, the General Accounting Office (GAO) reviewed it to : determine (1) whether FAA has a target architecture(s), and associated : subarchitectures, to gui...

FAA bulk technology overview for explosives detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novakoff, Alan K.

1993-04-01

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is the leading federal agency responsible for encouraging and fostering the development of a safe, secure, and efficient national airspace system (NAS). Our goal is to establish an operating environment that ensures a threat-free system to preclude acts of terrorism and fatalities. As part of the process to meet this goal, our research and development activities continually search for technologies to ensure aviation security. Recent acts of terrorism against the aviation community have demonstrated an increasing level of sophistication in the design and deployment of explosive devices. In order to prevent the introduction of explosives onto an aircraft they must be detected prior to passenger and baggage loading. The Bulk Detection program is one method of developing a number of technologies that 'see' into and 'alarm' on suspect baggage. These detection devices must be capable of providing this serve with a confidence commensurate with the state-of-the- art available today. This program utilizes the expertise of government agencies, universities and industries working toward constructing their plans and executing their designs to produce the best available equipment.

14 CFR 157.7 - FAA determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

.... (a) The FAA will conduct an aeronautical study of an airport proposal and, after consultations with... existing or contemplated traffic patterns of neighboring airports; the effects the proposed action would... local law, ordinance or regulation, or state or other Federal regulation. Aeronautical studies and...

14 CFR 157.7 - FAA determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

.... (a) The FAA will conduct an aeronautical study of an airport proposal and, after consultations with... existing or contemplated traffic patterns of neighboring airports; the effects the proposed action would... local law, ordinance or regulation, or state or other Federal regulation. Aeronautical studies and...

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

2015-01-01

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

77 FR 14856 - Public Meeting With Interested Persons To Discuss the Proposed Federal Aviation Administration...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-13

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Public Meeting With Interested...) AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (DOT). ACTION: Notice of public meetings. SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will be holding a public meeting to discuss issuing a new Technical Standard...

Workshop for transportation forecasters

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

On September 22-23, 2009, the U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration's - Bureau of Transportation Statistics is hosted an international workshop on transportation forecasting in Washington, D.C. Topics fo...

Modeling and forecasting U.S. sex differentials in mortality.

PubMed

Carter, L R; Lee, R D

1992-11-01

"This paper examines differentials in observed and forecasted sex-specific life expectancies and longevity in the United States from 1900 to 2065. Mortality models are developed and used to generate long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals that extend recent work by Lee and Carter (1992). These results are compared for forecast accuracy with univariate naive forecasts of life expectancies and those prepared by the Actuary of the Social Security Administration." excerpt

FAA Air Traffic Control Operations Concepts. Volume 7. ATCT (Airport Traffic Control Towers) Tower Controllers

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-04-21

kift rIn FAA AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL OPERATIONS CONCEPTS V olum e V iI:.................... ATCT Tower Controllers AmELECTE JUL 2 11989 21 April 1989 A...01 022.3013209-87-B 11 a FAA AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL OPERATIONS CONCEPTS VOLUME VII: ATCT TOWER CONTROLLERS CDRL Bl 12, VOL. VII CONTRACT DTF-AO1-85-Y...INCORPORATED 7150 Campus Drive, Suite 100 Colorado Springs, CO 80920 (719) 590-5100 DOT/FAA/AP-87-0i (VOL#7) 21 April 1989 FAA AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL OPERATIONS

Federal Aviation Administration's Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-11-17

On October 30, 1997, at a hearing of the Subcommittee on Transportation and Related Agencies, Committee on Appropriations, U.S. House of Representatives, OIG provided their observations on the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Standard Terminal...

A Survey of the Aircraft Maintenance Industry to Solicit Perceptions Regarding the Effectiveness of Recent Graduates of F.A.A. Approved Maintenance Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Brian, Benjamin H.

A study examined the perceptions of employers in the aircraft maintenance industry regarding the effectiveness of recent graduates of Federal Aeronautics Administration (FAA)-approved maintenance schools. Of the 100 employers who were contacted, 68 returned usable surveys. Based on responses, it was concluded that the views of employers in the…

A Method for Forecasting the Commercial Air Traffic Schedule in the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, Dou; Lee, David; Gaier, Eric; Johnson, Jesse; Kostiuk, Peter

1999-01-01

This report presents an integrated set of models that forecasts air carriers' future operations when delays due to limited terminal-area capacity are considered. This report models the industry as a whole, avoiding unnecessary details of competition among the carriers. To develop the schedule outputs, we first present a model to forecast the unconstrained flight schedules in the future, based on the assumption of rational behavior of the carriers. Then we develop a method to modify the unconstrained schedules, accounting for effects of congestion due to limited NAS capacities. Our underlying assumption is that carriers will modify their operations to keep mean delays within certain limits. We estimate values for those limits from changes in planned block times reflected in the OAG. Our method for modifying schedules takes many means of reducing the delays into considerations, albeit some of them indirectly. The direct actions include depeaking, operating in off-hours, and reducing hub airports'operations. Indirect actions include using secondary airports, using larger aircraft, and selecting new hub airports, which, we assume, have already been modeled in the FAA's TAF. Users of our suite of models can substitute an alternative forecast for the TAF.

Error models for official mortality forecasts.

PubMed

Alho, J M; Spencer, B D

1990-09-01

"The Office of the Actuary, U.S. Social Security Administration, produces alternative forecasts of mortality to reflect uncertainty about the future.... In this article we identify the components and assumptions of the official forecasts and approximate them by stochastic parametric models. We estimate parameters of the models from past data, derive statistical intervals for the forecasts, and compare them with the official high-low intervals. We use the models to evaluate the forecasts rather than to develop different predictions of the future. Analysis of data from 1972 to 1985 shows that the official intervals for mortality forecasts for males or females aged 45-70 have approximately a 95% chance of including the true mortality rate in any year. For other ages the chances are much less than 95%." excerpt

Economic Justification for FAA's Flight 2000 Program

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-09-23

This paper summarizes the economic benefits that are anticipated to flow from : the FAA's Flight 2000 operational demonstration program. This quick assessment : is based on the Flight 2000 Initial Program Plan, dated July 16, 1997. The : analysis sho...

Aviation safety courses available through the FAA.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-02-02

The FAA Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) offers a 1-day training course to familiarize U.S. civil aviation pilots and flight crews with the physiological and psychological stresses of flight. Pilots who are knowledgeable about physiological p...

Flight service specialist initial qualifications course : content validation of FAA Academy course 50232.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1991-04-01

This study evaluates the content validity of the Initial Qualifications Course provided to flight service specialists (FSS) by the FAA Academy. The purpose of FSS Initial Qualifications Course (FAA Academy course 50232) is to predict the student's pr...

FAA/NASA Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research: 1993-1994

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hueschen, Richard M. (Compiler)

1995-01-01

This report summarizes the research conducted during the academic year 1993-1994 under the NASA/FAA sponsored Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research. The year end review was held at Ohio University, Athens, Ohio, July 14-15, 1994. The Joint University Program is a coordinated set of three grants sponsored by NASA Langley Research Center and the Federal Aviation Administration, one each with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (NGL-22-009-640), Ohio University (NGR-36-009-017), and Princeton University (NGL-31-001-252). Completed works, status reports, and annotated bibliographies are presented for research topics which include navigation, guidance and control theory and practice, aircraft performance, human factors, and expert systems concepts applied to aircraft and airport operations. An overview of the year's activities for each university is also presented.

14 CFR 401.3 - The Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... space transportation by the United States private sector. [Doc. No. FAA-2006-24197, 72 FR 17016, Apr. 6... AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION GENERAL ORGANIZATION AND DEFINITIONS § 401.3 The...

The THOR Project-Reducing the Impact of Thunderstorms on Aviation and the General Public Through a Multi-Agency Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Stephan B.; Pace, David; Goodman, Steven J.; Burgess, Donald W.; Smarsh, David; Roberts, Rita D.; Wolfson, Marilyn M.; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Thunderstorms are high impact weather phenomena. They also pose an extremely challenging forecast problem. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA), and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), have decided to pool technology and scientific expertise into an unprecedented effort to better observe, diagnose, and forecast thunderstorms. This paper describes plans for an operational field test called the THunderstorm Operational Research (THOR) Project beginning in 2002, the primary goals of which are to: 1) Reduce the number of Thunderstorm-related Air Traffic Delays with in the National Airspace System (NAS) and, 2) Improve severe thunderstorm, tornado and airport thunderstorm warning accuracy and lead time. Aviation field operations will be focused on the prime air traffic bottleneck in the NAS, the airspace bounded roughly by Chicago, New York City and Washington D.C., sometimes called the Northeast Corridor. A variety of new automated thunderstorm forecasting applications will be tested here that, when implemented into FAA-NWS operations, will allow for better tactical decision making and NAS management during thunderstorm days. Severe thunderstorm operations will be centered on Northern Alabama. NWS meteorologists from the forecast office in Birmingham will test the utility of experimental lightning, radar, and profiler data from a mesoscale observing network being established by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. In addition, new tornado detection and thunderstorm nowcasting algorithms will be examined for their potential for improving warning accuracy. The Alabama THOR site will also serve as a test bed for new gridded, digital thunderstorm and flash flood warning products.

The genomic organization of the Fanconi anemia group A (FAA) gene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ianzano, L.; Centra, M.; Savino, M.

1997-05-01

Fanconi anemia (FA) is a genetically heterogeneous disease involving at least five genes on the basis of complementation analysis (FAA to FAE). The FAA gene has been recently isolated by two independent approaches, positional and functional cloning. In the present study we describe the genomic structure of the FAA gene. The gene contains 43 exons spanning approximately 80 kb as determined by the alignment of four cosmids and the fine localization of the first and the last exons in restriction fragments of these clones. Exons range from 34 to 188 bp. All but three of the splice sites were consistentmore » with the ag-gt rule. We also describe three alternative splicing events in cDNA clones that result in the loss of exon 37, a 23-bp deletion at the 5{prime} end of exon 41. Sequence analysis of the 5{prime} region upstream of the putative transcription start site showed no obvious TATA and CAAT boxes, but did show a GC-rich region, typical of housekeeping genes. Knowledge of the structure of the FAA gene will provide an invaluable resource for the discovery of mutations in the gene that accounts for about 60-66% of FA patients. 24 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.« less

Financial management : Federal Aviation Administration lacked accountability for major assets

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-02-18

This short report is in response to a request by the Congress that the General : Accounting Office (GAO) analyze the Department of Transportation (DOT) Inspector : General's (IG) audit report on the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) : fiscal ye...

Forecasting, Forecasting

Treesearch

Michael A. Fosberg

1987-01-01

Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

Empirical prediction intervals improve energy forecasting

PubMed Central

Kaack, Lynn H.; Apt, Jay; Morgan, M. Granger; McSharry, Patrick

2017-01-01

Hundreds of organizations and analysts use energy projections, such as those contained in the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), for investment and policy decisions. Retrospective analyses of past AEO projections have shown that observed values can differ from the projection by several hundred percent, and thus a thorough treatment of uncertainty is essential. We evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several empirical density forecasting methods, using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The analysis confirms that a Gaussian density, estimated on past forecasting errors, gives comparatively accurate uncertainty estimates over a variety of energy quantities in the AEO, in particular outperforming scenario projections provided in the AEO. We report probabilistic uncertainties for 18 core quantities of the AEO 2016 projections. Our work frames how to produce, evaluate, and rank probabilistic forecasts in this setting. We propose a log transformation of forecast errors for price projections and a modified nonparametric empirical density forecasting method. Our findings give guidance on how to evaluate and communicate uncertainty in future energy outlooks. PMID:28760997

Proceedings of the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures : Part 1

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-07-01

This publication contains the fifty-two technical papers presented at the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. The symposium, hosted by the FAA Center of Excellence for Computational Modeling of Aircraft Structure...

Proceedings of the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures : Part 2

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-07-01

This publication contains the fifty-two technical papers presented at the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. The symposium, hosted by the FAA Center of Excellence for Computational Modeling of Aircraft Structure...

Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

2010-05-01

Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive

Factors associated with continuance commitment to FAA matrix teams.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-11-01

Several organizations within the FAA employ matrix teams to achieve cross-functional coordination. Matrix team members typically represent different organizational functions required for project accomplishment (e.g., research and development, enginee...

Evaluation of the FAA Advanced Flow Control Procedures.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-01-01

The report is an evaluation of the present FAA Advanced Flow Control Procedures (AFCP), based on data gathered from its implementation on February 5, 1971 and on a fast-time digital simulation of traffic feeding into the NY airports on that day. The ...

AN OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE ETA-CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an Air Quality Forecasting Program that will eventually result in an operational Nationwide Air Quality Forecasting System. The initial pha...

Federal Aviation Administration : reauthorization provides opportunities to address key agency challenges

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-04-10

Much has changed since the Wendell H. Ford Aviation Investment and Reform Act for the 21st Century (AIR-21) reauthorized the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) programs 3 years ago. At that time, air traffic was increasing, and concerns about co...

Developing air quality forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Pius; Saylor, Rick; Meagher, James

2012-05-01

Third International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research; Potomac, Maryland, 29 November to 1 December 2011 Elevated concentrations of both near-surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter have been implicated in increased mortality and other human health impacts. In light of these known influences on human health, many governments around the world have instituted air quality forecasting systems to provide their citizens with advance warning of impending poor air quality so that they can take actions to limit exposure. In an effort to improve the performance of air quality forecasting systems and provide a forum for the exchange of the latest research in air quality modeling, the International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research (IWAQFR) was established in 2009 and is cosponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environment Canada (EC), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The steering committee for IWAQFR's establishment was composed of Véronique Bouchet, Mike Howe, and Craig Stoud (EC); Greg Carmichael (University of Iowa); Paula Davidson and Jim Meagher (NOAA); and Liisa Jalkanen (WMO). The most recent workshop took place in Maryland.

Forecasting forecast skill

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

1987-01-01

It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

A perspective on the FAA approval process: Integrating rotorcraft displays, controls and workload

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, David L.; Hart, Jake; Hwoschinsky, Peter

1993-01-01

The FAA is responsible for making the determination that a helicopter is safe for IFR operations in the National Airspace System (NAS). This involves objective and subjective evaluations of cockpit displays, flying qualities, procedures and human factors as they affect performance and workload. After all of the objective evaluations are completed, and all Federal Regulations have been met, FAA pilots make the final subjective judgement as to suitability for use by civil pilots in the NAS. The paper uses the flying qualities and pilot workload characteristics of a small helicopter to help examine the FAA pilot's involvement in this process. The result highlights the strengths of the process and its importance to the approval of new aircraft and equipments for civil IFR helicopter applications. The paper also identifies opportunities for improvement.

The Federal Aviation Administration's radar training facility and employee selection and training.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-09-01

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recently constructed a Radar Training Facility (RTF) in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, to aid in screening appropriate personnel for work in radar air traffic control (ATC). The approach is based on the idea th...

Training and Proficiency Testing for Commuter and Air Taxi Pilots - Federal Aviation Administration

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-10-21

The objective of this audit was to determine whether the Federal Aviation : Administration (FAA) has established procedures and oversight controls to assure : that commuter and air taxi pilots, engaged in passenger-carrying operations, : hold valid p...

Discovering the Regulatory Considerations of the Federal Aviation Administration: Interviewing the Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Chien-tsung

2005-01-01

Maintenance Resource Management (MRM) training for aviation mechanics has become mandatory in many industrialized countries since 1998. Yet, to date, MRM training remains optional in the U.S. Interestingly, a similar safety discipline, namely Crew/Cockpit Resource Management (CRM), is mandatory for pilots, flight engineers, flight attendants, and dispatchers and is regulated in the Federal Aviation Administration s (FAA) Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs). If MRM training is important to enhance aviation technicians working behavior, the rationale to not regulate it opens a window for study. This research aims to inductively investigate the FAA s regulatory rationale concerning MRM training based on direct inputs from the FAA s Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee (ARAC) members. Delphi methodology associated with purposive sampling technique was adopted. The result revealed that the FAA cannot regulate MRM because the aviation industry is strongly opposed to it due to the lack of training budgets, the need of a quantifiable cost-effect analysis, concern over the FAA s inspection workforce, an ongoing voluntary alternative called the Air Transportation Surveillance System (ATOS), the government s lower priority on maintenance after 9/11, and the airlines tight embracement of operational flexibility without regulation.

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collectionmore » of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.« less

Towards FAA Certification of UAVs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Stacy

2003-01-01

As of June 30, 2003, all Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), no matter how small, must adhere to the same FAA regulations as human-piloted aircraft. These regulations include certification for flying in controlled airspace and certification of flight software based on RTCA DO-178B. This paper provides an overview of the steps necessary to obtain certification, as well as a discussion about the challenges UAV's face when trying to meet these requirements. It is divided into two parts: 1) Certifications for Flying in Controlled Airspace; 2) Certification of Flight Software per RTCA DO-178B.

Management advisory memorandum on National Airspace System infrastructure management system prototype, Federal Aviation Administration

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-03-01

This is our Management Advisory Memorandum on the National Airspace : System (NAS) Infrastructure Management System (NIMS) prototype : project in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Our review was : initiated in response to a hotline complaint...

Job task-competency linkages for FAA first-level supervisors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1991-04-01

A study was conducted to determine the linkages between the job tasks and competencies of first level supervisors in the FAA. A sample was drawn from each of nine job groups: Flight Service, Terminal, En Route, Regional Office/Headquarters Air Traffi...

ARRA FEMP Technical Assistance -- Federal Aviation Administration Project 209 -- Control Tower and Support Building, Palm Springs, CA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

2010-03-31

This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 100% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be built in Palm Springs, California by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stensrud, David J.; Wicker, Louis J.; Xue, Ming; Dawson, Daniel T.; Yussouf, Nusrat; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Thompson, Therese E.; Snook, Nathan A.; Smith, Travis M.; Schenkman, Alexander D.; Potvin, Corey K.; Mansell, Edward R.; Lei, Ting; Kuhlman, Kristin M.; Jung, Youngsun; Jones, Thomas A.; Gao, Jidong; Coniglio, Michael C.; Brooks, Harold E.; Brewster, Keith A.

2013-04-01

The current status and challenges associated with two aspects of Warn-on-Forecast-a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research project exploring the use of a convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system to support hazardous weather warning operations-are outlined. These two project aspects are the production of a rapidly-updating assimilation system to incorporate data from multiple radars into a single analysis, and the ability of short-range ensemble forecasts of hazardous convective weather events to provide guidance that could be used to extend warning lead times for tornadoes, hailstorms, damaging windstorms and flash floods. Results indicate that a three-dimensional variational assimilation system, that blends observations from multiple radars into a single analysis, shows utility when evaluated by forecasters in the Hazardous Weather Testbed and may help increase confidence in a warning decision. The ability of short-range convective-scale ensemble forecasts to provide guidance that could be used in warning operations is explored for five events: two tornadic supercell thunderstorms, a macroburst, a damaging windstorm and a flash flood. Results show that the ensemble forecasts of the three individual severe thunderstorm events are very good, while the forecasts from the damaging windstorm and flash flood events, associated with mesoscale convective systems, are mixed. Important interactions between mesoscale and convective-scale features occur for the mesoscale convective system events that strongly influence the quality of the convective-scale forecasts. The development of a successful Warn-on-Forecast system will take many years and require the collaborative efforts of researchers and operational forecasters to succeed.

GIS and RDBMS Used with Offline FAA Airspace Databases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, J.; Simmons, J.; Scofield, E.; Talbott, B.

1994-01-01

A geographic information system (GIS) and relational database management system (RDBMS) were used in a Macintosh environment to access, manipulate, and display off-line FAA databases of airport and navigational aid locations, airways, and airspace boundaries. This proof-of-concept effort used data available from the Adaptation Controlled Environment System (ACES) and Digital Aeronautical Chart Supplement (DACS) databases to allow FAA cartographers and others to create computer-assisted charts and overlays as reference material for air traffic controllers. These products were created on an engineering model of the future GRASP (GRaphics Adaptation Support Position) workstation that will be used to make graphics and text products for the Advanced Automation System (AAS), which will upgrade and replace the current air traffic control system. Techniques developed during the prototyping effort have shown the viability of using databases to create graphical products without the need for an intervening data entry step.

Validation of the Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Control Specialist Pre-Training Screen.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-02-01

Two formal validation studies of the Air Traffic Control Specialist Pre Training Screen (ATCS/PTS), a 5 day computer administered test battery, are described. The ATCS/PTS was designed to replace the 9 week US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Ac...

Monitoring of Airport Revenues at Arlington Municipal Airport; Federal Aviation Administration Northwest Mountain Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-15

The objectives of our audit were to determine whether Federal Aviation : Administration (FAA) monitoring of Arlington Municipal Airport (Airport) was : adequate to ensure (i) a fee and rental structure was maintained which made the : Airport as self-...

THE NEW ENGLAND AIR QUALITY FORECASTING PILOT PROGRAM: DEVELOPMENT OF AN EVALUATION PROTOCOL AND PERFORMANCE BENCHMARK

EPA Science Inventory

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a "test bed" for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implemen...

FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation: Calendar Year 1988

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-01-01

functions. The FAA constructs , operates, and maintains the National Airspace System and the facilities whlich are a part of the system; it allocates...3 2 3 1 3 1 2 - I - Construcciones Aeronautics C212 ......................... 18 16 19 24 27 28 16... Construction Co ........................ 2 - - 2 -.. 2 - Resort Air dba Trans World Express ...... . 3 - - 13 13 - - - - - 98 TABLE 5.5-Continued TOTAL

Use of Ground Penetrating Radar at the FAA's National Airport Pavement Test Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Injun, Song

2015-04-01

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States has used a ground-coupled Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) at the National Airport Pavement Test Facility (NAPTF) since 2005. One of the primary objectives of the testing at the facility is to provide full-scale pavement response and failure information for use in airplane landing gear design and configuration studies. During the traffic testing at the facility, a GSSI GPR system was used to develop new procedures for monitoring Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) pavement density changes that is directly related to pavement failure. After reviewing current setups for data acquisition software and procedures for identifying different pavement layers, dielectric constant and pavement thickness were selected as dominant parameters controlling HMA properties provided by GPR. A new methodology showing HMA density changes in terms of dielectric constant variations, called dielectric sweep test, was developed and applied in full-scale pavement test. The dielectric constant changes were successfully monitored with increasing airplane traffic numbers. The changes were compared to pavement performance data (permanent deformation). The measured dielectric constants based on the known HMA thicknesses were also compared with computed dielectric constants using an equation from ASTM D4748-98 Standard Test Method for Determining the Thickness of Bound Pavement Layers Using Short-Pulse Radar. Six inches diameter cylindrical cores were taken after construction and traffic testing for the HMA layer bulk specific gravity. The measured bulk specific gravity was also compared to monitor HMA density changes caused by aircraft traffic conditions. Additionally this presentation will review the applications of the FAA's ground-coupled GPR on embedded rebar identification in concrete pavement, sewer pipes in soil, and gage identifications in 3D plots.

Forecasting the need for physicians in the United States: the Health Resources and Services Administration's physician requirements model.

PubMed Central

Greenberg, L; Cultice, J M

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The Health Resources and Services Administration's Bureau of Health Professions developed a demographic utilization-based model of physician specialty requirements to explore the consequences of a broad range of scenarios pertaining to the nation's health care delivery system on need for physicians. DATA SOURCE/STUDY SETTING: The model uses selected data primarily from the National Center for Health Statistics, the American Medical Association, and the U.S. Bureau of Census. Forecasts are national estimates. STUDY DESIGN: Current (1989) utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient medical specialty services were obtained for the population according to age, gender, race/ethnicity, and insurance status. These rates are used to estimate specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to physician requirements by applying per-physician productivity estimates. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Secondary data were analyzed and put into matrixes for use in the mainframe computer-based model. Several missing data points, e.g., for HMO-enrolled populations, were extrapolated from available data by the project's contractor. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The authors contend that the Bureau's demographic utilization model represents improvements over other data-driven methodologies that rely on staffing ratios and similar supply-determined bases for estimating requirements. The model's distinct utility rests in offering national-level physician specialty requirements forecasts. Images Figure 1 PMID:9018213

Evaluation of Computer Aided Vortex Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, Vernon J.; Olson, Lawrence E. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

Several countries, including the United States. Canada, Germany, England and Russia, are in the process of trying to develop some sort of computer-aided system that will guide controllers at airports on the hazard posed by lift-generated vortices that trail behind subsonic transport aircraft. The emphasis on this particular subject has come about because the hazard posed by wake vortices is currently the only reason why aircraft are spaced at 3 to 6 miles apart during landing and takeoff rather than something like 2 miles. It is well known that under certain weather conditions, aircraft spacings can be safely reduced to as little as the desired 2 miles. In an effort to perhaps capitalize on such a possibility, a combined FAA and NASA program is currently underway in the United States to develop such a system. Needless to say, the problems associated with anticipating the required separation distances when weather conditions are involved is very difficult. Similarly, Canada has a corresponding program to develop a vortex forecast system of their own.

Space Weather Forecasting and Supporting Research in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pevtsov, A. A.

2017-12-01

In the United State, scientific research in space weather is funded by several Government Agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). For civilian and commercial purposes, space weather forecast is done by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Observational data for modeling come from the network of groundbased observatories funded via various sources, as well as from the instruments on spacecraft. Numerical models used in forecast are developed in framework of individual research projects. The article provides a brief review of current state of space weather-related research and forecasting in the USA.

FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, Calendar Year 1984.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-01-01

rulemaking responsibilities relstive to these functions. The FAA constructs , operates, and maintains the National Airspace System ’. and the facilities which...1 --- 2 - 2 Construcciones Aronauticas C212 -- 2 is 16 28 27 109 %0 ;*. -*"_. ..... .... ........ *...*...*."... p .. ,° TAIA 5.12 (coatiamed) axAFn...and rental aircraft activity. 0 Other Work Use--Any aircraft used for construction work (not included under Part 135), helicopter, hoist, towing

NASA/FAA Tailplane Icing Program Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratvasky, Thomas P.; VanZante, Judith Foss; Riley, James T.

1999-01-01

The effects of tailplane icing were investigated in a four-year NASA/FAA Tailplane Icing, Program (TIP). This research program was developed to improve the understanding, of iced tailplane aeroperformance and aircraft aerodynamics, and to develop design and training aides to help reduce the number of incidents and accidents caused by tailplane icing. To do this, the TIP was constructed with elements that included icing, wind tunnel testing, dry-air aerodynamic wind tunnel testing, flight tests, and analytical code development. This paper provides an overview of the entire program demonstrating the interconnectivity of the program elements and reports on current accomplishments.

DOT/FAA Human Factors Workshop on Aviation (6th). Transcript.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-05-01

This document is a verbatim transcript of the proceedings of the DOT/FAA Sixth Human Factors Workshop on Aviation held at the Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on July 7-8, 1981. The subject of the workshop was aviation maint...

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keitz, J. F.

1982-01-01

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

Space transportation forecast conference, February 10-11, 1998 : Quarterly Launch Report : special report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

The Federal Aviation Administration's Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation (AST) convened the first national commercial space transportation forecast conference on February 10-11, 1998. For the theme, Commercial Space Transport...

The philosophy and limitations of FAA aeromedical standards, policies and procedures.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1971-06-01

Designated Aviation Medical Examiners need available basic information concerning the FAA medical certification system, the philosophy which underlies standards, policy and procedures, and certain limitations of the system. It is through such informa...

A generic model for evaluation of the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control specialist training programs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-03-01

The Systems Analysis Research Unit at the Civil Aeromedical Institute (CAMI) has developed a generic model for Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Academy training program evaluation. The model will serve as a basis for integrating the total data b...

The meta-Gaussian Bayesian Processor of forecasts and associated preliminary experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Fajing; Jiao, Meiyan; Chen, Jing

2013-04-01

Public weather services are trending toward providing users with probabilistic weather forecasts, in place of traditional deterministic forecasts. Probabilistic forecasting techniques are continually being improved to optimize available forecasting information. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF), a new statistical method for probabilistic forecast, can transform a deterministic forecast into a probabilistic forecast according to the historical statistical relationship between observations and forecasts generated by that forecasting system. This technique accounts for the typical forecasting performance of a deterministic forecasting system in quantifying the forecast uncertainty. The meta-Gaussian likelihood model is suitable for a variety of stochastic dependence structures with monotone likelihood ratios. The meta-Gaussian BPF adopting this kind of likelihood model can therefore be applied across many fields, including meteorology and hydrology. The Bayes theorem with two continuous random variables and the normal-linear BPF are briefly introduced. The meta-Gaussian BPF for a continuous predictand using a single predictor is then presented and discussed. The performance of the meta-Gaussian BPF is tested in a preliminary experiment. Control forecasts of daily surface temperature at 0000 UTC at Changsha and Wuhan stations are used as the deterministic forecast data. These control forecasts are taken from ensemble predictions with a 96-h lead time generated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction during January 2008. The results of the experiment show that the meta-Gaussian BPF can transform a deterministic control forecast of surface temperature from any one of the three ensemble predictions into a useful probabilistic forecast of surface temperature. These probabilistic forecasts quantify the uncertainty

Increased Accuracy in Statistical Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nateghi, R.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S. D.

2012-12-01

Hurricanes are among the costliest and most destructive natural hazards in the U.S. Accurate hurricane forecasts are crucial to optimal preparedness and mitigation decisions in the U.S. where 50 percent of the population lives within 50 miles of the coast. We developed a flexible statistical approach to forecast annual number of hurricanes in the Atlantic region during the hurricane season. Our model is based on the method of Random Forest and captures the complex relationship between hurricane activity and climatic conditions through careful variable selection, model testing and validation. We used the National Hurricane Center's Best Track hurricane data from 1949-2011 and sixty-one candidate climate descriptors to develop our model. The model includes information prior to the hurricane season, i.e., from the last three months of the previous year (Oct. through Dec.) and the first five months of the current year (January through May). Our forecast errors are substantially lower than other leading forecasts such as that of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Non-seismic tsunamis: filling the forecast gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, C. W.; Titov, V. V.; Spillane, M. C.

2015-12-01

Earthquakes are the generation mechanism in over 85% of tsunamis. However, non-seismic tsunamis, including those generated by meteorological events, landslides, volcanoes, and asteroid impacts, can inundate significant area and have a large far-field effect. The current National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tsunami forecast system falls short in detecting these phenomena. This study attempts to classify the range of effects possible from these non-seismic threats, and to investigate detection methods appropriate for use in a forecast system. Typical observation platforms are assessed, including DART bottom pressure recorders and tide gauges. Other detection paths include atmospheric pressure anomaly algorithms for detecting meteotsunamis and the early identification of asteroids large enough to produce a regional hazard. Real-time assessment of observations for forecast use can provide guidance to mitigate the effects of a non-seismic tsunami.

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

14 CFR 11.73 - How does FAA process petitions for rulemaking?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... safety or security concerns you raise; (2) The priority of other issues the FAA must deal with; and (3... dismiss your petition. Your comments and arguments for a rule change will be placed in a database, which...

National Airspace System : status of FAA's Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-09-01

Comparing the currently projected cost and deployment schedule for : STARS with the original cost and schedule is difficult because the program : presently bears little resemblance to the program envisioned in 1996. At : that time, FAA contracted wit...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1998.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1998) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. The index lists all FAA aviation medicine reports published from ...

NextGen Technologies on the FAA's Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witzberger, Kevin; Swenson, Harry; Martin, Lynne; Lin, Melody; Cheng, Jinn-Hwei

2014-01-01

This paper describes the integration, evaluation, and results from a high-fidelity human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation of key NASA Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 1 (ATD- 1) technologies implemented in an enhanced version of the FAA's Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS) platform. These ATD-1 technologies include: (1) a NASA enhanced version of the FAA's Time-Based Flow Management, (2) a NASA ground-based automation technology known as controller-managed spacing (CMS), and (3) a NASA advanced avionics airborne technology known as flight-deck interval management (FIM). These ATD-1 technologies have been extensively tested in large-scale HITL simulations using general-purpose workstations to study air transportation technologies. These general purpose workstations perform multiple functions and are collectively referred to as the Multi-Aircraft Control System (MACS). Researchers at NASA Ames Research Center and Raytheon collaborated to augment the STARS platform by including CMS and FIM advisory tools to validate the feasibility of integrating these automation enhancements into the current FAA automation infrastructure. NASA Ames acquired three STARS terminal controller workstations, and then integrated the ATD-1 technologies. HITL simulations were conducted to evaluate the ATD-1 technologies when using the STARS platform. These results were compared with the results obtained when the ATD-1 technologies were tested in the MACS environment. Results collected from the numerical data show acceptably minor differences, and, together with the subjective controller questionnaires showing a trend towards preferring STARS, validate the ATD-1/STARS integration.

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1996.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1996) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. The index lists all FAA aviation medicine reports ...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1993.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1993) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It lists all FAA aviation medicine reports publish...

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration Project 209 - Control Tower and Support Building, Las Vegas, NV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

2010-03-31

This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 70% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be built in Las Vegas, Nevada by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specification that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration – Project 209 Control Tower and Support Building Oakland, CA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

2010-03-01

This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 70% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be build at Oakland, California by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specification that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

Industry assessment of human factors in aviation maintenance and inspection research program : an assessment of industry awareness and use of the Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aviation Medicine Human Factors in Aviation Maintenance and Inspection Research and Development Program from 1989 through 1998

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-03-01

Ten years ago the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Aviation Medicine embarked on a research and development program dedicated to human factors in aviation maintenance and inspection. Since 1989 FAA has invested over $12M in maintenance...

Integration of structural health monitoring solutions onto commercial aircraft via the Federal Aviation Administration structural health monitoring research program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swindell, Paul; Doyle, Jon; Roach, Dennis

2017-02-01

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) started a research program in structural health monitoring (SHM) in 2011. The program's goal was to understand the technical gaps of implementing SHM on commercial aircraft and the potential effects on FAA regulations and guidance. The program evolved into a demonstration program consisting of a team from Sandia National Labs Airworthiness Assurance NDI Center (AANC), the Boeing Corporation, Delta Air Lines, Structural Monitoring Systems (SMS), Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp (AEM) and the FAA. This paper will discuss the program from the selection of the inspection problem, the SHM system (Comparative Vacuum Monitoring-CVM) that was selected as the inspection solution and the testing completed to provide sufficient data to gain the first approved use of an SHM system for routine maintenance on commercial US aircraft.

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1991.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1991) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It lists all FAA aviation medicine rep...

14 CFR 193.9 - Will the FAA ever disclose information that is designated as protected under this part?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

....S.C. 44905, regarding information about threats to civil aviation. (b) Additional disclosures. For... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Will the FAA ever disclose information that... VOLUNTARILY SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.9 Will the FAA ever disclose information that is designated as...

Index to FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine reports : 1961 through 2012.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1971) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a quick reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1997.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1971) and is presented as a quick reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA aviation medicine reports published from 1961 through 19...

An evaluation of the effectiveness of the FAA Management Training School.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1975-01-01

This report covers two aspects of an agency-wide assessment of the FAA Management Training School (MTS) program. The first part of the report considers the evaluation of MTS by approximately 10% of the Supervisory and Managerial Training Course gradu...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1978.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1978) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA aviat...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1976.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1971) and is presented as a quick reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA aviation medicine reports published from 1961 through 19...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1986.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1982) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA aviat...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1971.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-03-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1971) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a quick reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1982.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1982) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA aviat...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1980.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1978) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA aviat...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1967.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1968-03-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1971) and is presented as a quick reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA aviation medicine reports published from 1961 through 19...

Users Manual for the Federal Aviation Administration Research and Development Electromagnetic Database (FRED) For Windows: Version 2.0

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-02-01

This document provides instructional guidelines to users of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Research and Development Electromagnetic Database (FRED) Version 2.0. Instructions are provided on how to access FRED from a compact disk (CD) and h...

NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Science.gov Websites

Click to look up weather forecast by City, State Active Weather Alerts Home NOAA Corporate Finance and NOAA Corporate Finance and Administrative Services Offices Sapelo Island Lighthouse. Sapelo Island . NOAA Corporate Finance and Administrative Services offices strive to deliver quality services to NOAA's

47 CFR 52.15 - Central office code administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... assignment databases; (3) Conducting the Numbering Resource Utilization and Forecast (NRUF) data collection... telecommunications carrier that receives numbering resources from the NANPA, a Pooling Administrator or another... Administrator. (2) State commissions may investigate and determine whether service providers have activated...

47 CFR 52.15 - Central office code administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... assignment databases; (3) Conducting the Numbering Resource Utilization and Forecast (NRUF) data collection... telecommunications carrier that receives numbering resources from the NANPA, a Pooling Administrator or another... Administrator. (2) State commissions may investigate and determine whether service providers have activated...

47 CFR 52.15 - Central office code administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... assignment databases; (3) Conducting the Numbering Resource Utilization and Forecast (NRUF) data collection... telecommunications carrier that receives numbering resources from the NANPA, a Pooling Administrator or another... Administrator. (2) State commissions may investigate and determine whether service providers have activated...

Using NMME in Region-Specific Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Bolinger, R. A.; Fry, L. M.; Kompoltowicz, K.

2015-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) provides access to a suite of real-time monthly climate forecasts that comprise the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in an attempt to meet increasing demands for monthly to seasonal climate prediction. While the graphical map forecasts of the NMME are informative, there is a need to provide decision-makers with probabilistic forecasts specific to their region of interest. Here, we demonstrate the potential application of the NMME to address regional climate projection needs by developing new forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the North American Great Lakes, the largest system of lakes on Earth. Regional opertional water budget forecasts rely on these outlooks to initiate monthly forecasts not only of the water budget, but of monthly lake water levels as well. More specifically, we present an alternative for improving existing operational protocols that currently involve a relatively time-consuming and subjective procedure based on interpreting the maps of the NMME. In addition, all forecasts are currently presented in the NMME in a probabilistic format, with equal weighting given to each member of the ensemble. In our new evolution of this product, we provide historical context for the forecasts by superimposing them (in an on-line graphical user interface) with the historical range of observations. Implementation of this new tool has already led to noticeable advantages in regional water budget forecasting, and has the potential to be transferred to other regional decision-making authorities as well.

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-07-01

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`smore » National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.« less

Short-term integrated forecasting system : 1993 model documentation report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-12-01

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate shor...

Two studies on participation in decision-making and equity among FAA personnel.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1991-07-01

Study 1 Moderated multiple regression analyses on data collected from 2,177 FAA air traffic controller specialists indicated that equity perceptions moderated the relationship between participation in decision-making and level of job satisfaction. Sp...

Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

DOE PAGES

Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; ...

2014-12-23

We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

What Can Computer Technology Offer Special Education Administrators?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Case, Elizabeth J.; And Others

The paper provides an overview of fundamental uses of the microcomputer by special education administrators in a large-city school district. Microcomputer applications are suggested for the following applications: school-level administrative functions (e.g., tracking equipment repair, budget forecasting, and class scheduling); district-wide…

Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Jiancang; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Jiang, Changsheng; Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe

2010-05-01

This study presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points bet by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. For discrete predictions, we apply this method to evaluate performance of Shebalin's predictions made by using the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm and of the outputs of the predictions from the Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency held by China Earthquake Administration. For the continuous case, we use it to compare the probability forecasts of seismicity in the Abruzzo region before and after the L'aquila earthquake based on the ETAS model and the PPE model.

14 CFR 11.33 - How can I track FAA's rulemaking activities?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... rulemaking document proceeding. Each rulemaking document FAA issues in a particular rulemaking proceeding, as... search the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS) for information on most rulemaking proceedings. You....regulations.gov. If you can't find the material in the electronic docket, contact the person listed under FOR...

14 CFR 11.33 - How can I track FAA's rulemaking activities?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... rulemaking document proceeding. Each rulemaking document FAA issues in a particular rulemaking proceeding, as... search the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS) for information on most rulemaking proceedings. You....regulations.gov. If you can't find the material in the electronic docket, contact the person listed under FOR...

14 CFR 11.33 - How can I track FAA's rulemaking activities?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... rulemaking document proceeding. Each rulemaking document FAA issues in a particular rulemaking proceeding, as... search the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS) for information on most rulemaking proceedings. You....regulations.gov. If you can't find the material in the electronic docket, contact the person listed under FOR...

14 CFR 11.33 - How can I track FAA's rulemaking activities?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... rulemaking document proceeding. Each rulemaking document FAA issues in a particular rulemaking proceeding, as... search the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS) for information on most rulemaking proceedings. You....regulations.gov. If you can't find the material in the electronic docket, contact the person listed under FOR...

FAA computer security : concerns remain due to personnel and other continuing weaknesses

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-08-01

FAA has a history of computer security weaknesses in a number of areas, including its physical security management at facilities that house air traffic control (ATC) systems, systems security for both operational and future systems, management struct...

Time series modelling and forecasting of emergency department overcrowding.

PubMed

Kadri, Farid; Harrou, Fouzi; Chaabane, Sondès; Tahon, Christian

2014-09-01

Efficient management of patient flow (demand) in emergency departments (EDs) has become an urgent issue for many hospital administrations. Today, more and more attention is being paid to hospital management systems to optimally manage patient flow and to improve management strategies, efficiency and safety in such establishments. To this end, EDs require significant human and material resources, but unfortunately these are limited. Within such a framework, the ability to accurately forecast demand in emergency departments has considerable implications for hospitals to improve resource allocation and strategic planning. The aim of this study was to develop models for forecasting daily attendances at the hospital emergency department in Lille, France. The study demonstrates how time-series analysis can be used to forecast, at least in the short term, demand for emergency services in a hospital emergency department. The forecasts were based on daily patient attendances at the paediatric emergency department in Lille regional hospital centre, France, from January 2012 to December 2012. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was applied separately to each of the two GEMSA categories and total patient attendances. Time-series analysis was shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for forecasting emergency department demand.

The Practice of Manpower Forecasting: A Collection of Case Studies. Studies on Education; Vol. 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ahamad, Bashir; And Others

In the 1960's academics, politicians, administrators and industrialists became convinced of the importance of education for economic development. The forecasting of qualified manpower needs was able to turn this new idea into practice. During the decade hundreds of manpower forecasts were made, and innumerable international conferenceses were held…

Improved Anvil Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred C.

2000-01-01

This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

2010-01-01

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

Against all odds -- Probabilistic forecasts and decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liechti, Katharina; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In the city of Zurich (Switzerland) the setting is such that the damage potential due to flooding of the river Sihl is estimated to about 5 billion US dollars. The flood forecasting system that is used by the administration for decision making runs continuously since 2007. It has a time horizon of max. five days and operates at hourly time steps. The flood forecasting system includes three different model chains. Two of those are run by the deterministic NWP models COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 and one is driven by the probabilistic NWP COSMO-Leps. The model chains are consistent since February 2010, so five full years are available for the evaluation for the system. The system was evaluated continuously and is a very nice example to present the added value that lies in probabilistic forecasts. The forecasts are available on an online-platform to the decision makers. Several graphical representations of the forecasts and forecast-history are available to support decision making and to rate the current situation. The communication between forecasters and decision-makers is quite close. To put it short, an ideal situation. However, an event or better put a non-event in summer 2014 showed that the knowledge about the general superiority of probabilistic forecasts doesn't necessarily mean that the decisions taken in a specific situation will be based on that probabilistic forecast. Some years of experience allow gaining confidence in the system, both for the forecasters and for the decision-makers. Even if from the theoretical point of view the handling during crisis situation is well designed, a first event demonstrated that the dialog with the decision-makers still lacks of exercise during such situations. We argue, that a false alarm is a needed experience to consolidate real-time emergency procedures relying on ensemble predictions. A missed event would probably also fit, but, in our case, we are very happy not to report about this option.

WOD - Weather On Demand forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Ragnarsson, Logi; Stanislawska, Karolina

2017-04-01

The backbone of the Belgingur forecasting system (called WOD - Weather On Demand) is the WRF-Chem atmospheric model, with a number of in-house customisations. Initial and boundary data are taken from the Global Forecasting System, operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Operational forecasts use cycling of a number of parameters, mainly deep soil and surface fields. This is done to minimise spin-up effects and to ensure proper book-keeping of hydrological fields such as snow accumulation and runoff, as well as the constituents of various chemical parameters. The WOD system can be used to create conventional short- to medium-range weather forecasts for any location on the globe. The WOD system can also be used for air quality purposes (e.g. dispersion forecasts from volcanic eruptions) and as a tool to provide input to other modelling systems, such as hydrological models. A wide variety of post-processing options are also available, making WOD an ideal tool for creating highly customised output that can be tailored to the specific needs of individual end-users. The most recent addition to the WOD system is an integrated verification system where forecasts can be compared to surface observations from chosen locations. Forecast visualisation, such as weather charts, meteograms, weather icons and tables, is done via number of web components that can be configured to serve the varying needs of different end-users. The WOD system itself can be installed in an automatic way on hardware running a range of Linux based OS. System upgrades can also be done in semi-automatic fashion, i.e. upgrades and/or bug-fixes can be pushed to the end-user hardware without system downtime. Importantly, the WOD system requires only rudimentary knowledge of the WRF modelling, and the Linux operating systems on behalf of the end-user, making it an ideal NWP tool in locations with limited IT infrastructure.

78 FR 6400 - Results of FAA Nitrous Oxide BLEVE Characterization Testing

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-30

... point. The FAA's Office of Commercial Space Transportation sponsored tests of liquid-phase nitrous oxide... storage and handling is a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE), which results from a sudden... nitrous oxide, and to demonstrate that a BLEVE would not occur if the liquid is maintained at temperatures...

FAA/NASA En Route Noise Symposium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powell, Clemans A. (Compiler)

1990-01-01

Aircraft community noise annoyance is traditionally a concern only in localities near airports. The proposed introduction of large commercial airplanes with advanced turboprop propulsion systems with supersonic propellers has given rise to concerns of noise annoyance in areas previously considered not to be impacted by aircraft noise. A symposium was held to assess the current knowledge of factors important to the impact of en route noise and to aid in the formulation of FAA and NASA programs in the area. Papers were invited on human response to aircraft noise in areas with low ambient noise levels, aircraft noise heard indoors and outdoors, aircraft noise in recreational areas, detection of propeller and jet aircraft noise, and methodological issues relevant to the design of future studies.

NASA Launches NOAA Weather Satellite to Improve Forecasts

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-11-18

Early on the morning of Saturday, Nov. 18, NASA successfully launched for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the first in a series of four advanced polar-orbiting satellites, equipped with next-generation technology and designed to improve the accuracy of U.S. weather forecasts out to seven days. The Joint Polar Satellite System-1 (JPSS-1) lifted off on a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base on California’s central coast. JPSS-1 data will improve weather forecasting and help agencies involved with post-storm recovery by visualizing storm damage and the geographic extent of power outages.

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

The Consequences of the FAA not Offering Emergency Agricultural UAS Rules for Water Conservation During the 2012 Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darling, R. G.

2016-12-01

The FAA's policies for agricultural Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) is essential towards preservation and optimization of water use in the parched Western United States. Had FAA applied emergency rules putting farmers on equal-footing with hobbyists for sUAS use at the beginning of the 2012 drought, the Western US could have been able to save approximately 3 Million/AF of water through improved irrigation management. For perspective, Los Angeles city's annual current consumption is 587,000 acre-feet. This study uses various assumptions about developed water use in agriculture and urban areas to determine water use, energy consumption, monetary loss through delay in FAA regulations. If the saved water was added to the ground the energy savings could have been approximately 1.27 Terra-Watt hours, enough energy to power the entire University of California system for 5 years. It remains unclear if new FAA regulations are sufficiently permissive to allow for widespread adoption of sUAS based precision agriculture. Substantial opportunities exist for utilizing UAS traffic management software in rural areas of less crowed airspace: incorporating geofencing and a notification system to operators and air traffic control as an alternative to a difficult examination process.

A scoping review of nursing workforce planning and forecasting research.

PubMed

Squires, Allison; Jylhä, Virpi; Jun, Jin; Ensio, Anneli; Kinnunen, Juha

2017-11-01

This study will critically evaluate forecasting models and their content in workforce planning policies for nursing professionals and to highlight the strengths and the weaknesses of existing approaches. Although macro-level nursing workforce issues may not be the first thing that many nurse managers consider in daily operations, the current and impending nursing shortage in many countries makes nursing specific models for workforce forecasting important. A scoping review was conducted using a directed and summative content analysis approach to capture supply and demand analytic methods of nurse workforce planning and forecasting. The literature on nurse workforce forecasting studies published in peer-reviewed journals as well as in grey literature was included in the scoping review. Thirty six studies met the inclusion criteria, with the majority coming from the USA. Forecasting methods were biased towards service utilization analyses and were not consistent across studies. Current methods for nurse workforce forecasting are inconsistent and have not accounted sufficiently for socioeconomic and political factors that can influence workforce projections. Additional studies examining past trends are needed to improve future modelling. Accurate nursing workforce forecasting can help nurse managers, administrators and policy makers to understand the supply and demand of the workforce to prepare and maintain an adequate and competent current and future workforce. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

PubMed Central

Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

2012-01-01

Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation. PMID:22615533

Rapid and sensitive ultrasonic-assisted derivatisation microextraction (UDME) technique for bitter taste-free amino acids (FAA) study by HPLC-FLD.

PubMed

Chen, Guang; Li, Jun; Sun, Zhiwei; Zhang, Shijuan; Li, Guoliang; Song, Cuihua; Suo, Yourui; You, Jinmao

2014-01-15

Amino acids, as the main contributors to taste, are usually found in relatively high levels in bitter foods. In this work, we focused on seeking a rapid, sensitive and simple method to determine FAA for large batches of micro-samples and to explore the relationship between FAA and bitterness. Overall condition optimisation indicated that the new UDME technique offered higher derivatisation yields and extraction efficiencies than traditional methods. Only 35min was needed in the whole operation process. Very low LLOQ (Lower limit of quantification: 0.21-5.43nmol/L) for FAA in twelve bitter foods was obtained, with which BTT (bitter taste thresholds) and CABT (content of FAA at BTT level) were newly determined. The ratio of CABT to BTT increased with decreasing of BTT. This work provided powerful potential for the high-throughput trace analysis of micro-sample and also a methodology to study the relationship between the chemical constituents and the taste. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration – Project 209 Control Tower and Support Building, Reno, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

2010-06-30

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Redhorse Corporation (Redhorse) conducted an energy audit on the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) control tower and base building in Reno, Nevada. This report presents the findings of the energy audit team that evaluated construction documents and operating specifications (at the 100% level) and completed a site visit. The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation: Calendar Year 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

FAA constructs , operates, and maintains the National Airspace System and the facilities which are apart of the system; it allocates and regulates the...2 4 3 2 3 1 3 1 2 - Construcciones Aeronautics C212 .......................... 16 16 18 16 19 24 27 28 16 15 Convair CV580/640/600...2,782 3,713 4,948 3,874 1,364 1,745 1,672 1,265 501 291 Construcciones Aeronautics C212 22,574 21.710 23,610 21,643 19,891 24.886 34,252 33.902

Forecasting typhoid fever incidence in the Cordillera administrative region in the Philippines using seasonal ARIMA models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cawiding, Olive R.; Natividad, Gina May R.; Bato, Crisostomo V.; Addawe, Rizavel C.

2017-11-01

The prevalence of typhoid fever in developing countries such as the Philippines calls for a need for accurate forecasting of the disease. This will be of great assistance in strategic disease prevention. This paper presents a development of useful models that predict the behavior of typhoid fever incidence based on the monthly incidence in the provinces of the Cordillera Administrative Region from 2010 to 2015 using univariate time series analysis. The data used was obtained from the Cordillera Office of the Department of Health (DOH-CAR). Seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) models were used to incorporate the seasonality of the data. A comparison of the results of the obtained models revealed that the SARIMA (1,1,7)(0,0,1)12 with a fixed coefficient at the seventh lag produces the smallest root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The model suggested that for the year 2016, the number of cases would increase from the months of July to September and have a drop in December. This was then validated using the data collected from January 2016 to December 2016.

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003more » and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.« less

Examination of the low frequency limit for helicopter noise data in the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Environmental Design Tool and Integrated Noise Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-19

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) aircraft noise modeling tools Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDTc) and Integrated Noise Model (INM) do not currently consider noise below 50 Hz in their computations. This paper describes a preliminary ...

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) - FEMP Technical Assistance - Federal Aviation Administration - Project 209 - Control Tower and Support Building, Boise, Idaho

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

2010-06-28

This report documents an energy audit performed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Redhorse Corporation (Redhorse) conducted on the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) control tower and base building in Boise, Idaho. This report presents findings of the energy audit team that evaluated construction documents and operating specifications (at the 100% level) followed by a site visit of the facility under construction. The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

Variable pathogenicity of exon 43del (FAA) in four Fanconi anaemia patients within a consanguineous family.

PubMed

Koc, A; Pronk, J C; Alikasifoglu, M; Joenje, H; Altay, C

1999-01-01

Four Fanconi anaemia group A (FAA) patients within two related consanguineous families are presented: the propositus (male, 13 years, transplanted at age 10), and his three cousins (one male, 8 years, and two female newborns). Assignment of the patients to FAA was based on the functional complementation analysis by somatic cell hybridization and confirmed by mutation screening showing a homozygous deletion of exon 43 (4267-4404del) in the FAA gene to be present in all four patients. The newborn patients had been diagnosed prenatally by DNA analysis. In spite of identical molecular pathology and close familial relationship the clinical phenotypes of the four patients were not concordant. Discordant symptoms included birthweight, pigmentation abnormalities, skeletal, renal and genital abnormalities, whereas microcephaly and possibly the haematological course were concordant. Differences in environmental conditions and/or genetic make-up along with chance effects during development may explain discordant phenotypes despite identical molecular pathology in these patients. However, our results do not rule out the possibility that the exon 43del mutation may have prognostic value for the haematological course of the disease.

AN OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE ETA - CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an operational, nationwide Air Quality Forecasting (AQF) system. An experimental phase of this program, which couples NOAA's Et...

Forecasting Skill

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

FAA Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1994-2005

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-03-01

ID (BOI) Fort Lauderdale Executive, FL (FXE) Idaho Falls Fanning Field, ID (IDA) Fort Myers Page Field, FL (FMY) Lewiston , ID (LWS) Fort Myers...Pacoima/Whitman, California (WHP) 3. Lakeland, Florida (LAL) 4. Valdosta Municipal, Georgia (VLD) 5. Halley, Idaho (SUN) 6. Marion Williamson County

Annual FAA Forecast Conference Proceedings (4th).

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-10-01

have a very definite point of view, one we’ve energy problem, the high price of energy or the held for a long time, and you might want to question...counter can be placed anywhere, depending expensively generating reliable operational data at on how long a cord you want to deal with. We nontowered... definitional pro- cent higher. Outside of the metropolitan areas, blems and efforts to avoid Arizona’s tax on aircraft. master plans were on the average three

FAA Aviation Forecasts - Fiscal Years 1987-1998.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-02-01

production of turbine powered aircraft. Further, a majority of the companies have significantly reduced their work forces and have consolidated plants . The...Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas . The hub’s 1985 population was 1.9 million. By 2000, the hub is expected to reach 2.4 mil- lion, which is 28

Annual FAA Forecast Conference Proceedings (5th).

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-10-01

UNCLASSFIEID N 11111 U-0 1 1112.0 IH ~ 118. MICROCOP RESOLUTION TEST NATI64Al. iUEUO Ao 1 c o 11th 4 4 v% ( 9 1 0 080 AVA n of raporatVod FoA Public 9egtn...bigger challenges that we face. There is no question public-because of the compounded effect of inflation that the acquisition rate of general aviation

Coastal and Riverine Flood Forecast Model powered by ADCIRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalid, A.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding is becoming a major threat to increased population in the coastal areas. To protect coastal communities from tropical storms & hurricane damages, early warning systems are being developed. These systems have the capability of real time flood forecasting to identify hazardous coastal areas and aid coastal communities in rescue operations. State of the art hydrodynamic models forced by atmospheric forcing have given modelers the ability to forecast storm surge, water levels and currents. This helps to identify the areas threatened by intense storms. Study on Chesapeake Bay area has gained national importance because of its combined riverine and coastal phenomenon, which leads to greater uncertainty in flood predictions. This study presents an automated flood forecast system developed by following Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Surge Guidance System (ASGS) guidelines and tailored to take in riverine and coastal boundary forcing, thus includes all the hydrodynamic processes to forecast total water in the Potomac River. As studies on tidal and riverine flow interaction are very scarce in number, our forecast system would be a scientific tool to examine such area and fill the gaps with precise prediction for Potomac River. Real-time observations from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and field measurements have been used as model boundary feeding. The model performance has been validated by using major historical riverine and coastal flooding events. Hydrodynamic model ADCIRC produced promising predictions for flood inundation areas. As better forecasts can be achieved by using coupled models, this system is developed to take boundary conditions from Global WaveWatchIII for the research purposes. Wave and swell propagation will be fed through Global WavewatchIII model to take into account the effects of swells and currents. This automated forecast system is currently undergoing rigorous testing to include any missing parameters which

Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, N. C.; Errico, Ronald M.

2015-01-01

The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

The Norwegian forecasting and warning service for rainfall- and snowmelt-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krøgli, Ingeborg K.; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica; Engen, Inger Karin

2018-05-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) have run a national flood forecasting and warning service since 1989. In 2009, the directorate was given the responsibility of also initiating a national forecasting service for rainfall-induced landslides. Both services are part of a political effort to improve flood and landslide risk prevention. The Landslide Forecasting and Warning Service was officially launched in 2013 and is developed as a joint initiative across public agencies between NVE, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET), the Norwegian Public Road Administration (NPRA) and the Norwegian Rail Administration (Bane NOR). The main goal of the service is to reduce economic and human losses caused by landslides. The service performs daily a national landslide hazard assessment describing the expected awareness level at a regional level (i.e. for a county and/or group of municipalities). The service is operative 7 days a week throughout the year. Assessments and updates are published at the warning portal http://www.varsom.no/ at least twice a day, for the three coming days. The service delivers continuous updates on the current situation and future development to national and regional stakeholders and to the general public. The service is run in close cooperation with the flood forecasting service. Both services are based on the five pillars: automatic hydrological and meteorological stations, landslide and flood historical database, hydro-meteorological forecasting models, thresholds or return periods, and a trained group of forecasters. The main components of the service are herein described. A recent evaluation, conducted on the 4 years of operation, shows a rate of over 95 % correct daily assessments. In addition positive feedbacks have been received from users through a questionnaire. The capability of the service to forecast landslides by following the hydro-meteorological conditions

Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

2013-12-01

The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi

Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

2012-12-01

The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as

Impact of Near-Field, Deep-Ocean Tsunami Observations on Forecasting the 7 December 2012 Japanese Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernard, Eddie; Wei, Yong; Tang, Liujuan; Titov, Vasily

2014-12-01

Following the devastating 11 March 2011 tsunami, two deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART®)(DART® and the DART® logo are registered trademarks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, used with permission) stations were deployed in Japanese waters by the Japanese Meteorological Agency. Two weeks after deployment, on 7 December 2012, a M w 7.3 earthquake off Japan's Pacific coastline generated a tsunami. The tsunami was recorded at the two Japanese DARTs as early as 11 min after the earthquake origin time, which set a record as the fastest tsunami detecting time at a DART station. These data, along with those recorded at other DARTs, were used to derive a tsunami source using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tsunami forecast system. The results of our analysis show that data provided by the two near-field Japanese DARTs can not only improve the forecast speed but also the forecast accuracy at the Japanese tide gauge stations. This study provides important guidelines for early detection and forecasting of local tsunamis.

Proceedings of the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bigelow, Catherine A. (Compiler)

1997-01-01

This publication contains the fifty-two technical papers presented at the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. The symposium, hosted by the FAA Center of Excellence for Computational Modeling of Aircraft Structures at Georgia Institute of Technology, was held to disseminate information on recent developments in advanced technologies to extend the life of high-time aircraft and design longer-life aircraft. Affiliations of the participants included 33% from government agencies and laboratories, 19% from academia, and 48% from industry; in all 240 people were in attendance. Technical papers were selected for presentation at the symposium, after a review of extended abstracts received by the Organizing Committee from a general call for papers.

Proceedings of the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. Volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bigelow, Catherine A. (Compiler)

1997-01-01

This publication contains the fifty-two technical papers presented at the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. The symposium, hosted by the FAA Center of Excellence for Computational Modeling of Aircraft Structures at Georgia Institute of Technology, was held to disseminate information on recent developments in advanced technologies to extend the life of high-time aircraft and design longer-life aircraft. Affiliations of the participants included 33% from government agencies and laboratories, 19% from academia, and 48% from industry; in all 240 people were in attendance. Technical papers were selected for presentation at the symposium, after a review of extended abstracts received by the Organizing Committee from a general call for papers.

Federal Aviation Administration's Runway Incursion Program

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-08

To reverse the upward trend in runway incursions, FAA must have a strong : Runway Incursion Program to solve systemwide problems and expedite : solutions. The Office of Inspector General report recommends that FAA (1) assign specific responsibility f...

Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali

2017-08-01

Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data set, this study evaluates the ability of global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korean Meteorological Administration, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to predict presummer rainy season (April-June) precipitation in south China. Evaluation of 5 day forecasts in three seasons (2013-2015) demonstrates the higher skill of probability matching forecasts compared to simple ensemble mean forecasts and shows that the deterministic forecast is a close second. The EPSs overestimate light-to-heavy rainfall (0.1 to 30 mm/12 h) and underestimate heavier rainfall (>30 mm/12 h), with JMA being the worst. By analyzing the synoptic situations predicted by the identified more skillful (ECMWF) and less skillful (JMA and CMA) EPSs and the ensemble sensitivity for four representative cases of torrential rainfall, the transport of warm-moist air into south China by the low-level southwesterly flow, upstream of the torrential rainfall regions, is found to be a key synoptic factor that controls the quantitative precipitation forecast. The results also suggest that prediction of locally produced torrential rainfall is more challenging than prediction of more extensively distributed torrential rainfall. A slight improvement in the performance is obtained by shortening the forecast lead time from 30-36 h to 18-24 h to 6-12 h for the cases with large-scale forcing, but not for the locally produced cases.

Assessment of Proposed Cab Glass Coating for FAA Control Towers

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-16

report would be prepared after the initial coating and evaluation (with sprayed water) and then a final report after the 6 month study period to assess...Distribution A: Approved for public release. AFRL-RH-WP-TR-2015-0074 Assessment of Proposed Cab Glass Coating for FAA Control...REPORT TYPE Interim 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 30 Jun 2014 – 1 Nov 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Assessment of Proposed Cab Glass Coating

Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

1993-01-01

The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

New Approaches to Travel Forecasting Models: A Synthesis of Four Research Proposals

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-01-01

In July 1992, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) issued a solicitation for proposals to redesign the travel demand forecasting process. The purpose of the solicitation was to enable travel behavior researchers to explain how transportation pla...

FAA Center of Excellence for Alternative Jet Fuels & Environment : Annual Technical Report : December, 2016 : For the period September 13, 2013 - September 30, 2015

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-12-01

This report covers the period between the initial establishment of the FAA Center of Excellence for Alternative Jet Fuels and Environment on September 13, 2013 through September 30, 2015. The Center was established by the authority of FAA solicitatio...

Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock agriculture in 16 local administrative districts of Korea.

PubMed

Ji, Eun Sook; Park, Kyu-Hyun

2012-12-01

This study was conducted to evaluate methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from livestock agriculture in 16 local administrative districts of Korea from 1990 to 2030. National Inventory Report used 3 yr averaged livestock population but this study used 1 yr livestock population to find yearly emission fluctuations. Extrapolation of the livestock population from 1990 to 2009 was used to forecast future livestock population from 2010 to 2030. Past (yr 1990 to 2009) and forecasted (yr 2010 to 2030) averaged enteric CH4 emissions and CH4 and N2O emissions from manure treatment were estimated. In the section of enteric fermentation, forecasted average CH4 emissions from 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 4%-114% compared to that of the past except for Daejeon (-63%), Seoul (-36%) and Gyeonggi (-7%). As for manure treatment, forecasted average CH4 emissions from the 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 3%-124% compared to past average except for Daejeon (-77%), Busan (-60%), Gwangju (-48%) and Seoul (-8%). For manure treatment, forecasted average N2O emissions from the 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 10%-153% compared to past average CH4 emissions except for Daejeon (-60%), Seoul (-4.0%), and Gwangju (-0.2%). With the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (CO2-Eq), forecasted average CO2-Eq from the 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 31%-120% compared to past average CH4 emissions except Daejeon (-65%), Seoul (-24%), Busan (-18%), Gwangju (-8%) and Gyeonggi (-1%). The decreased CO2-Eq from 5 local administrative districts was only 34 kt, which was insignificantly small compared to increase of 2,809 kt from other 11 local administrative districts. Annual growth rates of enteric CH4 emissions, CH4 and N2O emissions from manure management in Korea from 1990 to 2009 were 1.7%, 2.6%, and 3.2%, respectively. The annual growth rate of total CO2-Eq was 2

Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

1992-01-01

This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA conference on Fibrous Composites in structural Design. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites; design methodology; design applications; design criteria; supporting technology; damage tolerance; and manufacturing.

Oregon Washington Coastal Ocean Forecast System: Real-time Modeling and Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erofeeva, S.; Kurapov, A. L.; Pasmans, I.

2016-02-01

Three-day forecasts of ocean currents, temperature and salinity along the Oregon and Washington coasts are produced daily by a numerical ROMS-based ocean circulation model. NAM is used to derive atmospheric forcing for the model. Fresh water discharge from Columbia River, Fraser River, and small rivers in Puget Sound are included. The forecast is constrained by open boundary conditions derived from the global Navy HYCOM model and once in 3 days assimilation of recent data, including HF radar surface currents, sea surface temperature from the GOES satellite, and SSH from several satellite altimetry missions. 4-dimensional variational data assimilation is implemented in 3-day time windows using the tangent linear and adjoint codes developed at OSU. The system is semi-autonomous - all the data, including NAM and HYCOM fields are automatically updated, and daily operational forecast is automatically initiated. The pre-assimilation data quality control and post-assimilation forecast quality control require the operator's involvement. The daily forecast and 60 days of hindcast fields are available for public on opendap. As part of the system model validation plots to various satellites and SEAGLIDER are also automatically updated and available on the web (http://ingria.coas.oregonstate.edu/rtdavow/). Lessons learned in this pilot real-time coastal ocean forecasting project help develop and test metrics for forecast skill assessment for the West Coast Operational Forecast System (WCOFS), currently at testing and development phase at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

14 CFR 11.87 - Are there circumstances in which FAA may decide not to publish a summary of my petition for...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... decide not to publish a summary of my petition for exemption? 11.87 Section 11.87 Aeronautics and Space... in which FAA may decide not to publish a summary of my petition for exemption? The FAA may not publish a summary of your petition for exemption and request comments if you present or we find good cause...

Digital avionics systems - Overview of FAA/NASA/industry-wide briefing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larsen, William E.; Carro, Anthony

1986-01-01

The effects of incorporating digital technology into the design of aircraft on the airworthiness criteria and certification procedures for aircraft are investigated. FAA research programs aimed at providing data for the functional assessment of aircraft which use digital systems for avionics and flight control functions are discussed. The need to establish testing, assurance assessment, and configuration management technologies to insure the reliability of digital systems is discussed; consideration is given to design verification, system performance/robustness, and validation technology.

Stochastic demographic forecasting.

PubMed

Lee, R D

1992-11-01

"This paper describes a particular approach to stochastic population forecasting, which is implemented for the U.S.A. through 2065. Statistical time series methods are combined with demographic models to produce plausible long run forecasts of vital rates, with probability distributions. The resulting mortality forecasts imply gains in future life expectancy that are roughly twice as large as those forecast by the Office of the Social Security Actuary.... Resulting stochastic forecasts of the elderly population, elderly dependency ratios, and payroll tax rates for health, education and pensions are presented." excerpt

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John

This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10more » - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.« less

Satellite freeze forecast system. Operating/troubleshooting manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

1983-01-01

Examples of operational procedures are given to assist users of the satellites freeze forecasting system (SFFS) in logging in on to the computer, executing the programs in the menu, logging off the computer, and setting up the automatic system. Directions are also given for displaying, acquiring, and listing satellite maps; for communicating via terminal and monitor displays; and for what to do when the SFFS doesn't work. Administrative procedures are included.

Investigating Anomalies in the Output Generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decicco, Nicholas; Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; Rios, Manny; King, David

2015-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is an advanced mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model comprised of two numerical cores, the Numerical Mesoscale Modeling (NMM) core, and the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core. An investigation was done to determine the source of erroneous output generated by the NMM core. In particular were the appearance of zero values at regularly spaced grid cells in output fields and the NMM core's evident (mis)use of static geographic information at a resolution lower than the nesting level for which the core is performing computation. A brief discussion of the high-level modular architecture of the model is presented as well as methods utilized to identify the cause of these problems. Presented here are the initial results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA''.

Bill spurs efforts to improve forecasting of inland flooding from tropical storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Newly-enacted U.S. legislation to reduce the threat of inland flooding from tropical storms could provide a "laser beam" focus to dealing with this natural hazard, according to Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-N.C.), the chief sponsor of the bill.The Tropical Cyclone Inland Forecasting Improvement and Warning System Development Act, (PL. 107-253), signed into law on 29 October, authorizes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) to improve the capability to accurately forecast inland flooding from tropical storms through research and modeling.

A sex comparison of reasons for attrition of non-journeyman FAA air traffic controllers.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1974-03-01

Recent ATC attrition rates showed no sex differences in the proportion of trainees who completed FAA Academy training; however, the percentage of females who subsequently left ATC work was over twice that of male trainees. In the present study, the 5...

The FAA altitude chamber training flight profile : a survey of altitude reactions, 1965-1989.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1990-09-01

Reactions from 1,161 trainees out of 12,759 trainees subjected to the FAA altitude chamber training flights from 1965-1989 are annotated in this survey. Although there were some mild and expected reactions, these training profiles appear to provide a...

14 CFR 61.41 - Flight training received from flight instructors not certificated by the FAA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... the FAA. (a) A person may credit flight training toward the requirements of a pilot certificate or... flight instructor described in paragraph (a) of this section is only authorized to give endorsements to...

Marine Point Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

with smartphones and other mobile platforms new Marine Point Forecasts are a forecast for a specific maps providing zone/point marine forecasts Mobile, AL Eureka, CA San Francisco, CA Los Angeles, CA San

A Comparative Verification of Forecasts from Two Operational Solar Wind Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-16

knowing how much confidence to place on predicted parameters. Cost /benefit information is provided to administrators who decide to sustain or...components of the magnetic field vector in the geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinate system at each hour of forecast time. For an example of a

Weather forecasting expert system study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

PubMed Central

Zhang, Banglin; Tallapragada, Vijay; Weng, Fuzhong; Liu, Qingfu; Sippel, Jason A.; Ma, Zaizhong; Bender, Morris A.

2016-01-01

The atmosphere−ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels. PMID:27698121

Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincendon, J.-C.

2009-09-01

The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

Final Results from A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; King, David; Decicco, Nicolas; Prince, Alyssa; di Mercurio, Alexis; Rios, Manual

2017-01-01

Wake Vortex Turbulence is the turbulence generated by an aircraft in flight. This turbulence is created by vortices at the tips of the wing that may decay slowly and persist for several minutes after creation. These vortices and turbulence are hazardous to other aircraft in the vicinity. The strength, formation and lifetime of the turbulence and vortices are effected by many things including the weather. Here we present the final results of the pilot project to investigation of low level wind fields generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and an analysis of historical data. The findings from the historical data and the data simulations were used as inputs for the computational fluid dynamics model (OpenFoam) to show that the vortices could be simulated using OpenFoam. Presented here are the updated results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Stockton University and the FAA''.

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement - An Impact-based Decision Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blondin, Debra

2016-04-01

Historically, convection causes the highest number of air traffic constraints on the United States National Air Space (NAS). Increased NAS predictability allows traffic flow managers to more effectively initiate, amend or terminate planned or active traffic management initiatives, resulting in more efficient use of available airspace. A Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS) is an impact-based decision support tool used for the timely delivery of high-confidence, high-relevance aviation convective weather forecasts to air traffic managers. The CAWS is a graphical and textual forecast produced by a collaborative team of meteorologists from the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Center Weather Service Units, and airlines to bring attention to high impact areas of thunderstorms. The CAWS addresses thunderstorm initiation or movement into the airports having the highest volume of traffic or into traffic sensitive jet routes. These statements are assessed by planners at the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Air Route Traffic Control Centers and are used for planning traffic management initiatives to balance air traffic flow across the United States. The FAA and the airline industry use the CAWS to plan, manage, and execute operations in the NAS, thereby improving the system efficiency and safety and also saving dollars for industry and the traveling public.

Forecast Verification: Identification of small changes in weather forecasting skill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherhead, E. C.; Jensen, T. L.

2017-12-01

Global and regonal weather forecasts have improved over the past seven decades most often because of small, incrmental improvements. The identificaiton and verification of forecast improvement due to proposed small changes in forecasting can be expensive and, if not carried out efficiently, can slow progress in forecasting development. This presentation will look at the skill of commonly used verification techniques and show how the ability to detect improvements can depend on the magnitude of the improvement, the number of runs used to test the improvement, the location on the Earth and the statistical techniques used. For continuous variables, such as temperture, wind and humidity, the skill of a forecast can be directly compared using a pair-wise statistical test that accommodates the natural autocorrelation and magnitude of variability. For discrete variables, such as tornado outbreaks, or icing events, the challenges is to reduce the false alarm rate while improving the rate of correctly identifying th discrete event. For both continuus and discrete verification results, proper statistical approaches can reduce the number of runs needed to identify a small improvement in forecasting skill. Verification within the Next Generation Global Prediction System is an important component to the many small decisions needed to make stat-of-the-art improvements to weather forecasting capabilities. The comparison of multiple skill scores with often conflicting results requires not only appropriate testing, but also scientific judgment to assure that the choices are appropriate not only for improvements in today's forecasting capabilities, but allow improvements that will come in the future.

Symposium Issue on the Energy Information Administration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kent, Calvin A.; And Others

1993-01-01

Describes the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a statistical agency which provides credible, timely, and useful energy information for decision makers in all sectors of society. The 10 articles included in the volume cover survey design, data collection, data integration, data analysis, modeling and forecasting, confidentiality, and…

An overview of health forecasting.

PubMed

Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

2013-01-01

Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

PubMed

Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

2012-03-01

Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

1989-01-01

Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

1992-01-01

This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design held at Lake Tahoe, Nevada, during 4-7 Nov. 1991. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites, design methodology, design applications, design criteria, supporting technology, damage tolerance, and manufacturing.

Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

1992-01-01

This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design held at Lake Tahoe, Nevada, during 4-7 Nov. 1991. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites, design methodology, design applications, design criteria, supporting technology, damage tolerance, and manufacturing.

Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2015-04-01

Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate-term aftershock activity as soon as possible is important. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with the maximum likelihood estimate effectively reproduces general aftershock activity including secondary or higher-order aftershocks and can be employed for the forecasting. However, because we cannot always expect the accurate parameter estimation from incomplete early aftershock data where many events are missing, such forecasting using only a single estimated parameter set (plug-in forecasting) can frequently perform poorly. Therefore, we here propose Bayesian forecasting that combines the forecasts by the ETAS model with various probable parameter sets given the data. By conducting forecasting tests of 1 month period aftershocks based on the first 1 day data after the main shock as an example of the early intermediate-term forecasting, we show that the Bayesian forecasting performs better than the plug-in forecasting on average in terms of the log-likelihood score. Furthermore, to improve forecasting of large aftershocks, we apply a nonparametric (NP) model using magnitude data during the learning period and compare its forecasting performance with that of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) formula. We show that the NP forecast performs better than the G-R formula in some cases but worse in other cases. Therefore, robust forecasting can be obtained by employing an ensemble forecast that combines the two complementary forecasts. Our proposed method is useful for a stable unbiased intermediate-term assessment of aftershock probabilities.

Federal Aviation Administration : challenges in modernizing the agency

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-02-01

FAA's efforts to implement initiatives in five key areas-air traffic control modernization, procurement and personnel reform, aviation safety, aviation and computer security, and financial management-have met with limited success. For example, FAA ha...

Transcript of the Joint FAA/Industry Symposium on Level B Airplane simulator aeromodel validation requirements

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-03-13

"This is the transcript of the Joint FAA/Industry Symposium on Level B Airplane Simulator Aeromodel Validation Requirements held on March 13-14, 1996, at the Washington Dulles Airport Hilton. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the aeromodeling...

Socioeconomic Forecasting

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI : PI+ model is consistent with the state of the practice in forecasting and impact analysis. REMI P...

Socioeconomic forecasting.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI : PI+ model is consistent with the state of the practice in forecasting and impact analysis. REMI P...

Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

PubMed Central

Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

2018-01-01

Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

PubMed

Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

2018-04-17

Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

Evaluating the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data On Convective Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kozlowski, Danielle; Zavodsky, Bradley

2011-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. The mission of SPoRT is to transition observations and research capabilities into operations to help improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional scale. Two areas of focus are data assimilation and modeling, which can to help accomplish SPoRT's programmatic goals of transitioning NASA data to operational users. Forecasting convective weather is one challenge that faces operational forecasters. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that operational forecasters use struggle to properly forecast location, timing, intensity and/or mode of convection. Given the proper atmospheric conditions, convection can lead to severe weather. SPoRT's partners in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have a mission to protect the life and property of American citizens. This mission has been tested as recently as this 2011 severe weather season, which has seen more than 300 fatalities and injuries and total damages exceeding $10 billion. In fact, during the three day period from 25-27 April, 1,265 storms reports (362 tornado reports) were collected making this three day period one of most active in American history. To address the forecast challenge of convective weather, SPoRT produces a real-time NWP model called the SPoRT Weather Research and Forecasting (SPoRT-WRF), which incorporates unique NASA data sets. One of the NASA assets used in this unique model configuration is retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS).The goal of this project is to determine the impact that these AIRS profiles have on the SPoRT-WRF forecasts by comparing to a current operational model and a control SPoRT-WRF model

Aging Aircraft 2005, The Joint NASA/FAA/DOD Conference on Aging Aircraft, Decision algorithms for Electrical Wiring Interconnect Systems (EWIS)Fault Detection

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-02-03

Aging Aircraft 2005 The 8th Joint NASA /FAA/DOD Conference on Aging Aircraft Decision Algorithms for Electrical Wiring Interconnect Systems (EWIS...SUBTITLE Aging Aircraft 2005, The 8th Joint NASA /FAA/DOD Conference on Aging Aircraft, Decision algorithms for Electrical Wiring Interconnect...UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) NASA Langley Research Center, 8W. Taylor St., M/S 190 Hampton, VA 23681 and NAVAIR

Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.; Barthélemy, A.; Chevallier, M.; Cullather, R.; Fučkar, N.; Massonnet, F.; Posey, P.; Wang, W.; Zhang, J.; Ardilouze, C.; Bitz, C. M.; Vernieres, G.; Wallcraft, A.; Wang, M.

2017-08-01

Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or forecast post-processing (bias correction) techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with regional forecast uncertainty. We find that prior to forecast post-processing, model uncertainty is the main contributor to forecast uncertainty, whereas after forecast post-processing forecast uncertainty is reduced overall, model uncertainty is reduced by an order of magnitude, and irreducible error growth becomes the main contributor to forecast uncertainty. While all models generally agree in their post-processed forecasts of September sea-ice volume and extent, this is not the case for sea-ice concentration. Additionally, forecast uncertainty of sea-ice thickness grows at a much higher rate along Arctic coastlines relative to the central Arctic ocean. Potential ways of offering spatial forecast information based on the timescale over which the forecast signal beats the noise are also explored.

Forecasting Global Point Rainfall using ECMWF's Ensemble Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillosu, Fatima; Hewson, Timothy; Zsoter, Ervin; Baugh, Calum

2017-04-01

ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts), in collaboration with the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) and GLOFAS (GLObal Flood Awareness System) teams, has developed a new operational system that post-processes grid box rainfall forecasts from its ensemble forecasting system to provide global probabilistic point-rainfall predictions. The project attains a higher forecasting skill by applying an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals. In turn this approach facilitates identification of cases in which very localized extreme totals are much more likely. This approach aims also to improve the rainfall input required in different hydro-meteorological applications. Flash flood forecasting, in particular in urban areas, is a good example. In flash flood scenarios precipitation is typically characterised by high spatial variability and response times are short. In this case, to move beyond radar based now casting, the classical approach has been to use very high resolution hydro-meteorological models. Of course these models are valuable but they can represent only very limited areas, may not be spatially accurate and may give reasonable results only for limited lead times. On the other hand, our method aims to use a very cost-effective approach to downscale global rainfall forecasts to a point scale. It needs only rainfall totals from standard global reporting stations and forecasts over a relatively short period to train it, and it can give good results even up to day 5. For these reasons we believe that this approach better satisfies user needs around the world. This presentation aims to describe two phases of the project: The first phase, already completed, is the implementation of this new system to provide 6 and 12 hourly point-rainfall accumulation probabilities. To do this we use a limited number of physically relevant global model parameters (i

First Annual FAA General Aviation Forecast Conference Proceedings

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-01

of Portland Wellington, KS 67152 P.O. Box 3529 (316) 326-5921 Portland, OR 97218 (503) 231-5000 Rick Patton Muller, Sirhall & Associates, Inc. John...360-4161 (818) 843-8311 John Trupchak Rick Weinberg Manager of Maintenance University of Illinois Xerox 1 Airport Rd. Hanger G- Westchester Airport...S.W. (214) 522-0851 Washington, DC 20591 (202) 267-3361 157 Robert Yancey BFGoodrich Aerospace & Defense Division P.O. Box 340 Troy, OH 45373 (513

Medium-range fire weather forecasts

Treesearch

J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

1991-01-01

The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

WPC Maximum Heat Index Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

Forecasts for Western US CLICK ON MAPS FOR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS FROM SUN MAY 27 2018 02 CLICK to view SAT JUN 02 forecast SUN JUN 03 CLICK to view SUN JUN 03 forecast SUN JUN 03 CLICK to view SUN JUN 03 forecast SUN JUN 03 CLICK to view SUN JUN 03 forecast SUN JUN 03 CLICK to view SUN JUN

An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silitonga, R. Y. H.; Jelly, N.

2018-04-01

Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.

NOAA Propagation Database Value in Tsunami Forecast Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eble, M. C.; Wright, L. M.

2016-02-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) has developed a tsunami forecasting capability that combines a graphical user interface with data ingestion and numerical models to produce estimates of tsunami wave arrival times, amplitudes, current or water flow rates, and flooding at specific coastal communities. The capability integrates several key components: deep-ocean observations of tsunamis in real-time, a basin-wide pre-computed propagation database of water level and flow velocities based on potential pre-defined seismic unit sources, an inversion or fitting algorithm to refine the tsunami source based on the observations during an event, and tsunami forecast models. As tsunami waves propagate across the ocean, observations from the deep ocean are automatically ingested into the application in real-time to better define the source of the tsunami itself. Since passage of tsunami waves over a deep ocean reporting site is not immediate, we explore the value of the NOAA propagation database in providing placeholder forecasts in advance of deep ocean observations. The propagation database consists of water elevations and flow velocities pre-computed for 50 x 100 [km] unit sources in a continuous series along all known ocean subduction zones. The 2011 Japan Tohoku tsunami is presented as the case study

The Impact of Lightning on Hurricane Rapid Intensification Forecasts Using the HWRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosado, K.; Tallapragada, V.; Jenkins, G. S.

2016-12-01

In 2010, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) created the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) with the main goal of improving the tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasts by 50% in ten years. One of the focus areas is the improvement of the tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) forecasts. In order to contribute to this task, the role of lightning during the life cycle of a tropical cyclone using the NCEP operational HWRF hurricane model has been investigated. We ask two key research questions: (1) What is the functional relationship between atmospheric moisture content, lightning, and intensity in the HWRF model? and (2) How well does the HWRF model forecast the spatial distributions of lightning before, during, and after tropical cyclone intensification, especially for RI events? In order to address those questions, a lightning parameterization scheme called the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) was implemented into the HWRF model. The selected study cases to test the LPI implementation on the 2015 HWRF (operational version) are: Earl and Joaquin (North Atlantic), Haiyan (Western North Pacific), and Patricia (Eastern North Pacific). Five-day forecasts was executed on each case study with emphasis on rapid intensification periods. An extensive analysis between observed "best track" intensity, model intensity forecast, and potential for lightning forecast was performed. Preliminary results show that: (1) strong correlation between lightning and intensity changes does exists; and (2) the potential for lightning increases to its maximum peak a few hours prior to the peak intensity of the tropical cyclone. LPI peak values could potentially serve as indicator for future rapid intensification periods. Results from this investigation are giving us a better understanding of the mechanism behind lightning as a proxy for tropical cyclone steady state intensification and tropical cyclone rapid intensification processes. Improvement of

Forecasting Hospitalization and Emergency Department Visit Rates for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. A Time-Series Analysis.

PubMed

Gershon, Andrea; Thiruchelvam, Deva; Moineddin, Rahim; Zhao, Xiu Yan; Hwee, Jeremiah; To, Teresa

2017-06-01

Knowing trends in and forecasting hospitalization and emergency department visit rates for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can enable health care providers, hospitals, and health care decision makers to plan for the future. We conducted a time-series analysis using health care administrative data from the Province of Ontario, Canada, to determine previous trends in acute care hospitalization and emergency department visit rates for COPD and then to forecast future rates. Individuals aged 35 years and older with physician-diagnosed COPD were identified using four universal government health administrative databases and a validated case definition. Monthly COPD hospitalization and emergency department visit rates per 1,000 people with COPD were determined from 2003 to 2014 and then forecasted to 2024 using autoregressive integrated moving average models. Between 2003 and 2014, COPD prevalence increased from 8.9 to 11.1%. During that time, there were 274,951 hospitalizations and 290,482 emergency department visits for COPD. After accounting for seasonality, we found that monthly COPD hospitalization and emergency department visit rates per 1,000 individuals with COPD remained stable. COPD prevalence was forecasted to increase to 12.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.4-14.1) by 2024, whereas monthly COPD hospitalization and emergency department visit rates per 1,000 people with COPD were forecasted to remain stable at 2.7 (95% CI, 1.6-4.4) and 3.7 (95% CI, 2.3-5.6), respectively. Forecasted age- and sex-stratified rates were also stable. COPD hospital and emergency department visit rates per 1,000 people with COPD have been stable for more than a decade and are projected to remain stable in the near future. Given increasing COPD prevalence, this means notably more COPD health service use in the future.

Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

2012-12-01

forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.

Job-related attitudes of non-journeyman FAA air traffic controllers and former controllers : a sex comparison.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1974-08-01

ATC attrition rates have been investigated recently for sex differences in the proportion of trainees completing FAA Academy training; the percentage of women who subsequently left ATC work was twice that of men. In the present comparison, questionna...

14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... functions must not, in that case or a factually-related case, participate or give advice in a decision by... supervised in a civil penalty action by a person who provides such advice to the FAA decisionmaker in that...

14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... functions must not, in that case or a factually-related case, participate or give advice in a decision by... supervised in a civil penalty action by a person who provides such advice to the FAA decisionmaker in that...

Proposed regulations submitted by the Environmental Protection Agency to the FAA: moise abatement minimum altitudes for turbojet-powered airplanes in terminal areas; turbojet-powered airplanes. Decision not to prescribe requlations: delayed landing flap procedure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1976-11-29

The Federal Aviation Administration has determined not to prescribe the proposed amendment to the FAA Regulations as submitted by the Environmental Protection Agency (40 F.R. 1072) on January 6, 1975, regarding noise abatement minimum altitudes for civil turbojet-powered airplanes. Instead, an internal directive is being issued aimed at the air traffic control function, which is designed to firmly integrate safety, fuel conservation, and noise abatement objectives into a single national program. It provides the flexibility needed to allow and encourage change with experience. (PCS)

FAA Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bond, Tom

2009-01-01

This viewgraph presentation describes the Federal Aviation Administration's perspective on improvements on aircraft icing. The most important areas that are discussed include: 1) Improvements in SLD engineering tools to meet concerns about means of compliance (MOC); and 2) 3-D iced aerodynamics.

A Performance Evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the Summer of 2007

EPA Science Inventory

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), developed collaboratively by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), that supported, in part,...

Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

2011-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.

Fishing Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

A simple Lagrangian forecast system with aviation forecast potential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petersen, R. A.; Homan, J. H.

1983-01-01

A trajectory forecast procedure is developed which uses geopotential tendency fields obtained from a simple, multiple layer, potential vorticity conservative isentropic model. This model can objectively account for short-term advective changes in the mass field when combined with fine-scale initial analyses. This procedure for producing short-term, upper-tropospheric trajectory forecasts employs a combination of a detailed objective analysis technique, an efficient mass advection model, and a diagnostically proven trajectory algorithm, none of which require extensive computer resources. Results of initial tests are presented, which indicate an exceptionally good agreement for trajectory paths entering the jet stream and passing through an intensifying trough. It is concluded that this technique not only has potential for aiding in route determination, fuel use estimation, and clear air turbulence detection, but also provides an example of the types of short range forecasting procedures which can be applied at local forecast centers using simple algorithms and a minimum of computer resources.

14 CFR Appendix B to Part 187 - Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

....-controlled airspace.) Distance flown is based on the great circle distance (GCD) for the point of entry and the point of exit of U.S.-controlled airspace based on FAA flight data. Fees are assessed using the methodology presented in paragraph (e)(2) of this appendix. Where actual entry and exit points are not...

Conditional Monthly Weather Resampling Procedure for Operational Seasonal Water Resources Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckers, J.; Weerts, A.; Tijdeman, E.; Welles, E.; McManamon, A.

2013-12-01

To provide reliable and accurate seasonal streamflow forecasts for water resources management several operational hydrologic agencies and hydropower companies around the world use the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) procedure. The ESP in its original implementation does not accommodate for any additional information that the forecaster may have about expected deviations from climatology in the near future. Several attempts have been conducted to improve the skill of the ESP forecast, especially for areas which are affected by teleconnetions (e,g. ENSO, PDO) via selection (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 1999) or weighting schemes (Werner et al., 2004; Wood and Lettenmaier, 2006; Najafi et al., 2012). A disadvantage of such schemes is that they lead to a reduction of the signal to noise ratio of the probabilistic forecast. To overcome this, we propose a resampling method conditional on climate indices to generate meteorological time series to be used in the ESP. The method can be used to generate a large number of meteorological ensemble members in order to improve the statistical properties of the ensemble. The effectiveness of the method was demonstrated in a real-time operational hydrologic seasonal forecasts system for the Columbia River basin operated by the Bonneville Power Administration. The forecast skill of the k-nn resampler was tested against the original ESP for three basins at the long-range seasonal time scale. The BSS and CRPSS were used to compare the results to those of the original ESP method. Positive forecast skill scores were found for the resampler method conditioned on different indices for the prediction of spring peak flows in the Dworshak and Hungry Horse basin. For the Libby Dam basin however, no improvement of skill was found. The proposed resampling method is a promising practical approach that can add skill to ESP forecasts at the seasonal time scale. Further improvement is possible by fine tuning the method and selecting the most

Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks

PubMed Central

Kandula, Sasikiran; Shaman, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

In recent years, a number of systems capable of predicting future infectious disease incidence have been developed. As more of these systems are operationalized, it is important that the forecasts generated by these different approaches be formally reconciled so that individual forecast error and bias are reduced. Here we present a first example of such multi-system, or superensemble, forecast. We develop three distinct systems for predicting dengue, which are applied retrospectively to forecast outbreak characteristics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. We then use Bayesian averaging methods to combine the predictions from these systems and create superensemble forecasts. We demonstrate that on average, the superensemble approach produces more accurate forecasts than those made from any of the individual forecasting systems. PMID:27733698

Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

2015-04-01

Forecast verification is important across scientific disciplines as it provides a framework for evaluating the performance of a forecasting system. In the atmospheric sciences, probabilistic skill scores are often used for verification as they provide a way of unambiguously ranking the performance of different probabilistic forecasts. In order to be useful, a skill score must be proper -- it must encourage honesty in the forecaster, and reward forecasts which are reliable and which have good resolution. A new score, the Error-spread Score (ES), is proposed which is particularly suitable for evaluation of ensemble forecasts. It is formulated with respect to the moments of the forecast. The ES is confirmed to be a proper score, and is therefore sensitive to both resolution and reliability. The ES is tested on forecasts made using the Lorenz '96 system, and found to be useful for summarising the skill of the forecasts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated using the ES. Its performance is compared to a perfect statistical probabilistic forecast -- the ECMWF high resolution deterministic forecast dressed with the observed error distribution. This generates a forecast that is perfectly reliable if considered over all time, but which does not vary from day to day with the predictability of the atmospheric flow. The ES distinguishes between the dynamically reliable EPS forecasts and the statically reliable dressed deterministic forecasts. Other skill scores are tested and found to be comparatively insensitive to this desirable forecast quality. The ES is used to evaluate seasonal range ensemble forecasts made with the ECMWF System 4. The ensemble forecasts are found to be skilful when compared with climatological or persistence forecasts, though this skill is dependent on region and time of year.

EnrollForecast for Excel: K-12 Enrollment Forecasting Program. Software & User's Guide. [Computer Diskette].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Curtis A.

"EnrollForecast for Excel" will generate a 5-year forecast of K-12 student enrollment. It will also work for any combination of grades between kindergarten and twelth. The forecasts can be printed as either a table or a graph. The user must provide birth history (only if forecasting kindergarten) and enrollment history information. The user also…

FAA and NASA UTM Research Transition Team: Communications and Navigation (CN) Working Group (WCG) Kickoff Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Jaewoo; Larrow, Jarrett

2017-01-01

This is NASA FAA UTM Research Transition Team Communications and Navigation working group kick off meeting presentation that addresses the followings. Objectives overview Overall timeline and scope Outcomes and expectations Communication method and frequency of meetings Upcoming evaluation Next steps.

Using Temperature Forecasts to Improve Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado and Rio Grande Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, F.; Wood, A.; Llewellyn, D.; Blatchford, D. B.; Goodbody, A. G.; Pappenberger, F.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have documented the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow across the American West, including snow-melt driven rivers such as the Colorado or Rio Grande. At the same time, some basins are reporting decreasing skill in seasonal streamflow forecasts, termed water supply forecasts (WSFs), over the recent decade. While the skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts from dynamical models remains low, their skill in predicting seasonal temperature variations could potentially be harvested for WSFs to account for non-stationarity in regional temperatures. Here, we investigate whether WSF skill can be improved by incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from dynamical forecasting models (from the North American Multi Model Ensemble and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast System 4) into traditional statistical forecast models. We find improved streamflow forecast skill relative to traditional WSF approaches in a majority of headwater locations in the Colorado and Rio Grande basins. Incorporation of temperature into WSFs thus provides a promising avenue to increase the robustness of current forecasting techniques in the face of continued regional warming.

Flash flood forecasting using simplified hydrological models, radar rainfall forecasts and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, P. J.; Beven, K.; Panziera, L.

2012-04-01

The issuing of timely flood alerts may be dependant upon the ability to predict future values of water level or discharge at locations where observations are available. Catchments at risk of flash flooding often have a rapid natural response time, typically less then the forecast lead time desired for issuing alerts. This work focuses on the provision of short-range (up to 6 hours lead time) predictions of discharge in small catchments based on utilising radar forecasts to drive a hydrological model. An example analysis based upon the Verzasca catchment (Ticino, Switzerland) is presented. Parsimonious time series models with a mechanistic interpretation (so called Data-Based Mechanistic model) have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this study such a model is developed to predict the discharge at an observed location from observed precipitation data. The model is shown to capture the snow melt response at this site. Observed discharge data is assimilated to improve the forecasts, of up to two hours lead time, that can be generated from observed precipitation. To generate forecasts with greater lead time ensemble precipitation forecasts are utilised. In this study the Nowcasting ORographic precipitation in the Alps (NORA) product outlined in more detail elsewhere (Panziera et al. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2011; DOI:10.1002/qj.878) is utilised. NORA precipitation forecasts are derived from historical analogues based on the radar field and upper atmospheric conditions. As such, they avoid the need to explicitly model the evolution of the rainfall field through for example Lagrangian diffusion. The uncertainty in the forecasts is represented by characterisation of the joint distribution of the observed discharge, the discharge forecast using the (in operational conditions unknown) future observed precipitation and that forecast utilising the NORA ensembles. Constructing the joint distribution in this way allows the full

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using the Princeton/U Washington National Hydrologic Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Roundy, J. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Mo, K. C.; Xia, Y.; Ek, M. B.

2011-12-01

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts or floods are a significant source of social and economic damage in many parts of the world. Having sufficient warning of extreme events allows managers to prepare for and reduce the severity of their impacts. A hydrologic forecast system can give seasonal predictions that can be used by mangers to make better decisions; however there is still much uncertainty associated with such a system. Therefore it is important to understand the forecast skill of the system before transitioning to operational usage. Seasonal reforecasts (1982 - 2010) from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (both version 1 (CFS) and version 2 (CFSv2), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks and the European Seasonal Interannual Prediction (EUROSIP) system, are assessed for forecasting skill in drought prediction across the U.S., both singularly and as a multi-model system The Princeton/U Washington national hydrologic monitoring and forecast system is being implemented at NCEP/EMC via their Climate Test Bed as the experimental hydrological forecast system to support U.S. operational drought prediction. Using our system, the seasonal forecasts are biased corrected, downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to give seasonal forecasts of hydrologic variables with lead times of up to six months. Results are presented for a number of events, with particular focus on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin in the South Eastern United States, which has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent years and is a pilot study basin for the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The performance of the VIC land surface model is evaluated using observational forcing when compared to observed streamflow. The effectiveness of the forecast system to predict streamflow and soil moisture is evaluated when compared with observed streamflow and modeled soil moisture driven by

77 FR 55686 - Airworthiness Directives; GA200 (Pty) Ltd Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-11

... United States Code specifies the FAA's authority to issue rules on aviation safety. Subtitle I, section... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Part 39 [Docket No. FAA-2012... Airworthiness Directives; GA200 (Pty) Ltd Airplanes AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION...

76 FR 29997 - Airworthiness Directives; Bombardier, Inc. Model CL-600-2B19 (Regional Jet Series 100 & 440...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-24

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Part 39 [Docket No. FAA-2010... Airworthiness Directives; Bombardier, Inc. Model CL-600-2B19 (Regional Jet Series 100 & 440) Airplanes AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Final rule; correction. SUMMARY: The FAA is correcting...

75 FR 7940 - Airworthiness Directives; Airbus Model A330-200 Series Airplanes and Model A340-200 and -300...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-23

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Part 39 [Docket No. FAA-2009... AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION: Final rule... to FAA AD 2006-21-08] required the installation of new heat shield panels with drainage over the air...

Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

DOE PAGES

Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; ...

2016-11-14

Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection andmore » Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.« less

Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas

Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection andmore » Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.« less

Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast

PubMed Central

Moran, Kelly R.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; Hickmann, Kyle; Osthus, Dave; Priedhorsky, Reid; Hyman, James; Del Valle, Sara Y.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. We conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting. PMID:28830111

Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

2017-12-01

Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.

2015-12-01

Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on forecasting DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these forecasting tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the forecasts are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate forecasts are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather forecast data as meteorological input, we produced weekly forecasts of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather forecast data to generate forecasts of DF case numbers. Real-time weather forecast data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF forecast being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF forecasts were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather forecasts were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the forecast. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range forecasts so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.

[Convertibility of the data determined by ICP-AES and FAAS for soil available K and Na].

PubMed

Zhang, Jian-min; Wang, Meng; Ge, Xiao-ping; Wu, Jian-zhi; Ge, Ying; Li, Shi-peng; Chang, Jie

2009-05-01

In recent years, inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) have been commonly used to determine the soil available K and Na with the extraction solution of HCl-H2SO4, while previous data of soil available K and Na were measured by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) with the extraction solution of NH4OAc. In order to utilize previous data, quest for the convertibility of the data determined by ICP-AES and FAAS, and compare the data determined by both methods, the authors chose four types of soil to determine soil available K and Na by ICP-AES and FAAS, respectively. Four types of soil represent grit soil, clay, silt from river and silt from sea, respectively. Soil samples included four types of soil and these samples represent different soil nutrition. The authors analyzed the correlations of two kinds of measured data. The paired samples t-test proves that there was significantly positively correlation between these two methods. The correlation coefficient of the data between these two methods for measuring soil available K is 0.98. The results of soil available K determined by the two methods can be conversed through the formula, y = l.14x + 6.53 (R2 = 0.91, n=24, p < 0.001). As for Na, although there is a significantly positively correlation between these two methods, the slopes of single model of clay and grit soil were different from that of general model. And so the results determined by the two methods can be conversed through different formula according to the types of soil, that is, for clay: y = l.23x + 10.03; for grit soil: y = 3.12x - 23.03; for silt: y = 0.60x. In conclusion, the authors' results showed that previous data of available K and Na measured by FAAS with the extraction solution of NH4OAc were available. And these data were comparable to the data measured by ICP-AES through definite formula The authors' results also suggested that ICP-AES was preferable when many elements were measured at the same time. Under

FAA center for aviation systems reliability: an overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasche, Lisa J. H.

1996-11-01

The FAA Center for Aviation Systems Reliability has as its objectives: to develop quantitative nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods for aircraft structures and materials, including prototype instrumentation, software, techniques and procedures; and to develop and maintain comprehensive education and training programs specific to the inspection of aviation structures. The program, which includes contributions from Iowa State University, Northwestern University, Wayne State University, Tuskegee University, AlliedSignal Propulsion Engines, General Electric Aircraft Engines and Pratt and Whitney, has been in existence since 1990. Efforts under way include: development of inspection for adhesively bonded structures; detection of corrosion; development of advanced NDE concepts that form the basis for an inspection simulator; improvements of titanium inspection as part of the Engine Titanium Consortium; development of education and training program. An overview of the efforts underway will be provided with focus on those technologies closest to technology transfer.

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

14 CFR 71.1 - Applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) AIRSPACE... Administration, 800 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington, DC 20591, (202) 267-8783. An electronic version of the Order is available on the FAA Web site at http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications. Copies of FAA...

Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

DOE PAGES

Staid, Andrea; Watson, Jean -Paul; Wets, Roger J. -B.; ...

2017-07-11

Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power timemore » series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.« less

Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staid, Andrea; Watson, Jean -Paul; Wets, Roger J. -B.

Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power timemore » series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.« less

Bayesian Forecasting Tool to Predict the Need for Antidote in Acute Acetaminophen Overdose.

PubMed

Desrochers, Julie; Wojciechowski, Jessica; Klein-Schwartz, Wendy; Gobburu, Jogarao V S; Gopalakrishnan, Mathangi

2017-08-01

Acetaminophen (APAP) overdose is the leading cause of acute liver injury in the United States. Patients with elevated plasma acetaminophen concentrations (PACs) require hepatoprotective treatment with N-acetylcysteine (NAC). These patients have been primarily risk-stratified using the Rumack-Matthew nomogram. Previous studies of acute APAP overdoses found that the nomogram failed to accurately predict the need for the antidote. The objectives of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model for APAP following acute overdose and evaluate the utility of population PK model-based Bayesian forecasting in NAC administration decisions. Limited APAP concentrations from a retrospective cohort of acute overdosed subjects from the Maryland Poison Center were used to develop the population PK model and to investigate the effect of type of APAP products and other prognostic factors. The externally validated population PK model was used a prior for Bayesian forecasting to predict the individual PK profile when one or two observed PACs were available. The utility of Bayesian forecasted APAP concentration-time profiles inferred from one (first) or two (first and second) PAC observations were also tested in their ability to predict the observed NAC decisions. A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination adequately described the data with single activated charcoal and APAP products as significant covariates on absorption and bioavailability. The Bayesian forecasted individual concentration-time profiles had acceptable bias (6.2% and 9.8%) and accuracy (40.5% and 41.9%) when either one or two PACs were considered, respectively. The sensitivity and negative predictive value of the Bayesian forecasted NAC decisions using one PAC were 84% and 92.6%, respectively. The population PK analysis provided a platform for acceptably predicting an individual's concentration-time profile following acute APAP overdose with at least one PAC, and the

Evaluation of a wildfire smoke forecasting system as a tool for public health protection.

PubMed

Yao, Jiayun; Brauer, Michael; Henderson, Sarah B

2013-10-01

Exposure to wildfire smoke has been associated with cardiopulmonary health impacts. Climate change will increase the severity and frequency of smoke events, suggesting a need for enhanced public health protection. Forecasts of smoke exposure can facilitate public health responses. We evaluated the utility of a wildfire smoke forecasting system (BlueSky) for public health protection by comparing its forecasts with observations and assessing their associations with population-level indicators of respiratory health in British Columbia, Canada. We compared BlueSky PM2.5 forecasts with PM2.5 measurements from air quality monitors, and BlueSky smoke plume forecasts with plume tracings from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hazard Mapping System remote sensing data. Daily counts of the asthma drug salbutamol sulfate dispensations and asthma-related physician visits were aggregated for each geographic local health area (LHA). Daily continuous measures of PM2.5 and binary measures of smoke plume presence, either forecasted or observed, were assigned to each LHA. Poisson regression was used to estimate the association between exposure measures and health indicators. We found modest agreement between forecasts and observations, which was improved during intense fire periods. A 30-μg/m3 increase in BlueSky PM2.5 was associated with an 8% increase in salbutamol dispensations and a 5% increase in asthma-related physician visits. BlueSky plume coverage was associated with 5% and 6% increases in the two health indicators, respectively. The effects were similar for observed smoke, and generally stronger in very smoky areas. BlueSky forecasts showed modest agreement with retrospective measures of smoke and were predictive of respiratory health indicators, suggesting they can provide useful information for public health protection.

75 FR 910 - Airworthiness Directives; General Electric Company CF34-1A, -3A, -3A1, -3A2, -3B, and -3B1...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-07

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Part 39 [Docket No. FAA-2007... AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION: Final rule..., under the authority delegated to me by the Administrator, the Federal Aviation Administration amends 14...

77 FR 30350 - Airport Improvement Program (AIP) Use of Mineral Revenue at Certain Airports

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-22

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration [Docket No. FAA-2012-0547] Airport Improvement Program (AIP) Use of Mineral Revenue at Certain Airports AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration... Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to declare certain revenue derived from or generated...

Correlates of two experimental tests with performance in the FAA Academy air traffic control nonradar screen program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1990-08-01

This study was designed to determine the relationships among experimental tests, the tests currently used to select entrants into the FAA's Air Traffic Control Specialist (ATCS) Academy Nonradar Screening Program, and Academy success. A battery of pa...

49 CFR 23.45 - What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA? 23.45 Section 23.45 Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation PARTICIPATION OF DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS ENTERPRISE IN AIRPORT CONCESSIONS Goals, Good Faith...

49 CFR 23.45 - What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA? 23.45 Section 23.45 Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation PARTICIPATION OF DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS ENTERPRISE IN AIRPORT CONCESSIONS Goals, Good Faith...

49 CFR 23.45 - What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA? 23.45 Section 23.45 Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation PARTICIPATION OF DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS ENTERPRISE IN AIRPORT CONCESSIONS Goals, Good Faith...

49 CFR 23.45 - What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA? 23.45 Section 23.45 Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation PARTICIPATION OF DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS ENTERPRISE IN AIRPORT CONCESSIONS Goals, Good Faith...

49 CFR 23.45 - What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA? 23.45 Section 23.45 Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation PARTICIPATION OF DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS ENTERPRISE IN AIRPORT CONCESSIONS Goals, Good Faith...

IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giebel, Gregor; Cline, Joel; Frank, Helmut; Shaw, Will; Pinson, Pierre; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Kariniotakis, Georges; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Draxl, Caroline

2017-04-01

Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Wind Power Forecasting tries to organise international collaboration, among national weather centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, UK MetOffice, …) and operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets for verification. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts aiming at industry and forecasters alike. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions, especially probabilistic ones. The Operating Agent is Gregor Giebel of DTU, Co-Operating Agent is Joel Cline of the US Department of Energy. Collaboration in the task is solicited from everyone interested in the forecasting business. We will collaborate with IEA Task 31 Wakebench, which developed the Windbench benchmarking platform, which this task will use for forecasting benchmarks. The task runs for three years, 2016-2018. Main deliverables are an up-to-date list of current projects and main project results, including datasets which can be used by researchers around the world to improve their own models, an IEA Recommended Practice on performance evaluation of probabilistic forecasts, a position paper regarding the use of probabilistic forecasts

More Intense Experiences, Less Intense Forecasts: Why People Overweight Probability Specifications in Affective Forecasts

PubMed Central

Buechel, Eva C.; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K.; Vosgerau, Joachim

2014-01-01

We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6). PMID:24128184

More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

PubMed

Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

2014-01-01

We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

Development and application of an atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting model driven by TIGGE ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Hongjun; Zhao, Linna

2012-02-01

A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic ensemble flood forecasting model, driven by The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data, has been developed for flood forecasting over the Huaihe River. The incorporation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) information into flood forecasting systems may increase forecast lead time from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP model forecast from a single forecast center, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and leads to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble NWP systems through TIGGE offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Xinanjiang model used for hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling and the one-dimensional unsteady flow model applied to channel flood routing are coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Met Office (UKMO), and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The developed ensemble flood forecasting model is applied to flood forecasting of the 2007 flood season as a test case. The test case is chosen over the upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station with flood diversion and retarding areas. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The Muskingum method is used for flood routing in the flood diversion area. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. The results demonstrate satisfactory flood forecasting with clear signals of probability of floods up to a

Forecasts of land uses

Treesearch

David N. Wear

2013-01-01

Key FindingsBetween 30 million and 43 million acres of land in the South are forecasted to be developed for urban uses by 2060 from a base of 30 million acres in 1997. These forecasts are based on a continuation of historical development intensities.From 1997 to 2060, the South is forecasted to lose between 11 million acres (7...

Hydrological Forecasting Practices in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Fernando; Paiva, Rodrigo; Collischonn, Walter; Ramos, Maria-Helena

2016-04-01

This work brings a review on current hydrological and flood forecasting practices in Brazil, including the main forecasts applications, the different kinds of techniques that are currently being employed and the institutions involved on forecasts generation. A brief overview of Brazil is provided, including aspects related to its geography, climate, hydrology and flood hazards. A general discussion about the Brazilian practices on hydrological short and medium range forecasting is presented. Detailed examples of some hydrological forecasting systems that are operational or in a research/pre-operational phase using the large scale hydrological model MGB-IPH are also presented. Finally, some suggestions are given about how the forecasting practices in Brazil can be understood nowadays, and what are the perspectives for the future.

Weather assessment and forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

78 FR 26102 - Notice of Termination of Environmental Impact Statement for the Friedman Memorial Replacement...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-03

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Termination of... Aviation Administration (FAA), Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announces its decision to terminate the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS...

75 FR 27427 - Amendment of Jet Route J-120; Alaska

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-17

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Part 71 [Docket No. FAA-2009-0007; Airspace Docket No. 09-AAL-20] Amendment of Jet Route J-120; Alaska AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: This action amends Jet Route J-120, in Alaska. The FAA is...

Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

2017-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

The Forecast Interpretation Tool—a Monte Carlo technique for blending climatic distributions with probabilistic forecasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel; Kyriakidis, P.; Verdin, James P.; Funk, Chris; Galu, Gideon

2011-01-01

Probabilistic forecasts are produced from a variety of outlets to help predict rainfall, and other meteorological events, for periods of 1 month or more. Such forecasts are expressed as probabilities of a rainfall event, e.g. being in the upper, middle, or lower third of the relevant distribution of rainfall in the region. The impact of these forecasts on the expectation for the event is not always clear or easily conveyed. This article proposes a technique based on Monte Carlo simulation for adjusting existing climatologic statistical parameters to match forecast information, resulting in new parameters defining the probability of events for the forecast interval. The resulting parameters are shown to approximate the forecasts with reasonable accuracy. To show the value of the technique as an application for seasonal rainfall, it is used with consensus forecast developed for the Greater Horn of Africa for the 2009 March-April-May season. An alternative, analytical approach is also proposed, and discussed in comparison to the first simulation-based technique.

National Utilization and Forecasting of Ototopical Antibiotics: Medicaid Data Versus "Dr. Google".

PubMed

Crowson, Matthew G; Schulz, Kristine; Tucci, Debara L

2016-09-01

To forecast national Medicaid prescription volumes for common ototopical antibiotics, and correlate prescription volumes with internet user search interest using Google Trends (GT). National United States Medicaid prescription and GT user search database analysis. Quarterly national Medicaid summary drug utilization data and weekly GT search engine data for ciprofloxacin-dexamethasone (CD), ofloxacin (OF), and Cortisporin (CS) ototopicals were obtained from January 2008 to July 2014. Time series analysis was used to assess prescription seasonality, Holt-Winter's method for forecasting quarterly prescription volumes, and Pearson correlations to compare GT and Medicaid data. Medicaid prescription volumes demonstrated sinusoidal seasonality for OF (r = 0.91), CS (r = 0.71), and CD (r = 0.62) with annual peaks in July, August, and September. In 2017, OF was forecasted to be the most widely prescribed ototopical, followed by CD. CS was the least prescribed, and volumes were forecasted to decrease 9.0% by 2017 from 2014. GT user search interest demonstrated analogous sinusoidal seasonality and significant correlations with Medicaid data prescriptions for CD (r = 0.38, p = 0.046), OF (r = 0.74, p < 0.001), CS (r = 0.49, p = 0.008). We found that OF, CD, and CS ototopicals have sinusoidal seasonal variation with Medicaid prescription volume peaks occurring in the summer. After 2012, OF was the most commonly prescribed ototopical, and this trend was forecasted to continue. CS use was forecasted to decrease. Google user search interest in these ototopical agents demonstrated analogous seasonal variation. Analyses of GT for interest in ototopical antibiotics may be useful for health care providers and administrators as a complementary method for assessing healthcare utilization trends.

MMAB Sea Ice Forecast Page

Science.gov Websites

verification statistics Grumbine, R. W., Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 886-890, 1998. MMAB Note: Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison 1996 pdf ~47

Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast.

PubMed

Moran, Kelly R; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; Hickmann, Kyle; Osthus, Dave; Priedhorsky, Reid; Hyman, James; Del Valle, Sara Y

2016-12-01

Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. We conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Analysis of Runway Incursion Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Lawrence L.

2013-01-01

A statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) events was conducted to ascertain relevance to the top ten challenges of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The information contained in the RI database was found to contain data that may be relevant to several of the AvSP top ten challenges. When combined with other data from the FAA documenting air traffic volume from calendar year 2000 through 2011, the structure of a predictive model emerges that can be used to forecast the frequency of RI events at various airports for various classes of aircraft and under various environmental conditions.

Using a Software Tool in Forecasting: a Case Study of Sales Forecasting Taking into Account Data Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabianová, Jana; Kačmáry, Peter; Molnár, Vieroslav; Michalik, Peter

2016-10-01

Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.

Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence

PubMed Central

Mandel, David R.; Barnes, Alan

2014-01-01

The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4–0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement. PMID:25024176

Calls Forecast for the Moscow Ambulance Service. The Impact of Weather Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordin, Vladimir; Bykov, Philipp

2015-04-01

We use the known statistics of the calls for the current and previous days to predict them for tomorrow and for the following days. We assume that this algorithm will work operatively, will cyclically update the available information and will move the horizon of the forecast. Sure, the accuracy of such forecasts depends on their lead time, and from a choice of some group of diagnoses. For comparison we used the error of the inertial forecast (tomorrow there will be the same number of calls as today). Our technology has demonstrated accuracy that is approximately two times better compared to the inertial forecast. We obtained the following result: the number of calls depends on the actual weather in the city as well as on its rate of change. We were interested in the accuracy of the forecast for 12-hour sum of the calls in real situations. We evaluate the impact of the meteorological errors [1] on the forecast errors of the number of Ambulance calls. The weather and the Ambulance calls number both have seasonal tendencies. Therefore, if we have medical information from one city only, we should separate the impacts of such predictors as "annual variations in the number of calls" and "weather". We need to consider the seasonal tendencies (associated, e. g. with the seasonal migration of the population) and the impact of the air temperature simultaneously, rather than sequentially. We forecasted separately the number of calls with diagnoses of cardiovascular group, where it was demonstrated the advantage of the forecasting method, when we use the maximum daily air temperature as a predictor. We have a chance to evaluate statistically the influence of meteorological factors on the dynamics of medical problems. In some cases it may be useful for understanding of the physiology of disease and possible treatment options. We can assimilate some personal archives of medical parameters for the individuals with concrete diseases and the relative meteorological archive. As a

Data-Driven Disease Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Generous, Nicholas

If disease outbreaks could be forecasted like the weather, communities could set up protective measures to mitigate their impact. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, scientists are improving disease-forecasting mathematical models by using clinical data--as well as internet data sources such as Wikipedia, Twitter, and Google--and coupling it with satellite imagery. The goal is to better understanding how diseases spread and, eventually, forecast disease outbreaks.

Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan

2015-10-05

Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reductionmore » in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.« less

Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; Caswell, Hal; DeWeaver, Eric; Stirling, Ian; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Hunter, Christine M.

2009-01-01

Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38(5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific

Short-term sea ice forecasting: An assessment of ice concentration and ice drift forecasts using the U.S. Navy's Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hebert, David A.; Allard, Richard A.; Metzger, E. Joseph; Posey, Pamela G.; Preller, Ruth H.; Wallcraft, Alan J.; Phelps, Michael W.; Smedstad, Ole Martin

2015-12-01

In this study the forecast skill of the U.S. Navy operational Arctic sea ice forecast system, the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS), is presented for the period February 2014 to June 2015. ACNFS is designed to provide short term, 1-7 day forecasts of Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions. Many quantities are forecast by ACNFS; the most commonly used include ice concentration, ice thickness, ice velocity, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface velocities. Ice concentration forecast skill is compared to a persistent ice state and historical sea ice climatology. Skill scores are focused on areas where ice concentration changes by ±5% or more, and are therefore limited to primarily the marginal ice zone. We demonstrate that ACNFS forecasts are skilful compared to assuming a persistent ice state, especially beyond 24 h. ACNFS is also shown to be particularly skilful compared to a climatologic state for forecasts up to 102 h. Modeled ice drift velocity is compared to observed buoy data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme. A seasonal bias is shown where ACNFS is slower than IABP velocity in the summer months and faster in the winter months. In February 2015, ACNFS began to assimilate a blended ice concentration derived from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). Preliminary results show that assimilating AMSR2 blended with IMS improves the short-term forecast skill and ice edge location compared to the independently derived National Ice Center Ice Edge product.

Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regonda, Satish Kumar; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill; Brown, James D.; Demargne, Julie

2013-08-01

We present a statistical procedure for generating short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, streamflow forecasts produced operationally by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). The resulting ensemble streamflow forecast provides an estimate of the predictive uncertainty associated with the single-valued forecast to support risk-based decision making by the forecasters and by the users of the forecast products, such as emergency managers. Forced by single-valued quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF), the single-valued streamflow forecasts are produced at a 6-h time step nominally out to 5 days into the future. The single-valued streamflow forecasts reflect various run-time modifications, or "manual data assimilation", applied by the human forecasters in an attempt to reduce error from various sources in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates ensemble traces of streamflow from a parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecast, QPF, and the most recent streamflow observation. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a multiyear archive of the single-valued river stage forecast produced operationally by the NWS Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) in Tulsa, Oklahoma. As a by-product of parameter estimation, the procedure provides a categorical assessment of the effective lead time of the operational hydrologic forecasts for different QPF and forecast flow conditions. To evaluate the procedure, we carried out hindcasting experiments in dependent and cross-validation modes. The results indicate that the short-term streamflow ensemble hindcasts generated from the procedure are generally reliable within the effective lead time of the single-valued forecasts and well capture the skill of the single-valued forecasts. For smaller

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

2012-09-01

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: the skill-persistence rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Y.; Rong, X.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the factors that impact the forecast skill for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill of sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further examined using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but can be distorted by the sampling error and non-AR1 processes.

14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive security...

FAA aircraft certification human factors and operations checklist for standalone GPS receivers (TSO C-129 class A)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-04-01

This checklist is designed to assist FAA certification personnel and GPS : receiver manufacturers in the evaluation of the pilot-system interface : characteristics of GPS receivers to be certified according to TSO C129 A1, : RTCA/DO-208, and AC 20-13...

The relationship of predevelopmental "150" training with noncompetitively selected air traffic control trainees to FAA Academy success.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-03-01

Past studies have demonstrated that women and minorities are less likely to be selected as FAA air traffic controllers than are nonminority men, and, when selected, are less likely to be successful. One major reason for this is that women and minorit...

14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive security...

14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive security...

14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive security...

14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive security...

The Eruption Forecasting Information System: Volcanic Eruption Forecasting Using Databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogburn, S. E.; Harpel, C. J.; Pesicek, J. D.; Wellik, J.

2016-12-01

Forecasting eruptions, including the onset size, duration, location, and impacts, is vital for hazard assessment and risk mitigation. The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) project is a new initiative of the US Geological Survey-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) and will advance VDAP's ability to forecast the outcome of volcanic unrest. The project supports probability estimation for eruption forecasting by creating databases useful for pattern recognition, identifying monitoring data thresholds beyond which eruptive probabilities increase, and for answering common forecasting questions. A major component of the project is a global relational database, which contains multiple modules designed to aid in the construction of probabilistic event trees and to answer common questions that arise during volcanic crises. The primary module contains chronologies of volcanic unrest. This module allows us to query eruption chronologies, monitoring data, descriptive information, operational data, and eruptive phases alongside other global databases, such as WOVOdat and the Global Volcanism Program. The EFIS database is in the early stages of development and population; thus, this contribution also is a request for feedback from the community. Preliminary data are already benefitting several research areas. For example, VDAP provided a forecast of the likely remaining eruption duration for Sinabung volcano, Indonesia, using global data taken from similar volcanoes in the DomeHaz database module, in combination with local monitoring time-series data. In addition, EFIS seismologists used a beta-statistic test and empirically-derived thresholds to identify distal volcano-tectonic earthquake anomalies preceding Alaska volcanic eruptions during 1990-2015 to retrospectively evaluate Alaska Volcano Observatory eruption precursors. This has identified important considerations for selecting analog volcanoes for global data analysis, such as differences between

Statistical Earthquake Focal Mechanism Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2013-12-01

The new whole Earth focal mechanism forecast, based on the GCMT catalog, has been created. In the present forecast, the sum of normalized seismic moment tensors within 1000 km radius is calculated and the P- and T-axes for the focal mechanism are evaluated on the basis of the sum. Simultaneously we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms. This average angle shows tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The method was originally proposed by Kagan and Jackson (1994, JGR). Recent interest by CSEP and GEM has motivated some improvements, particularly to extend the previous forecast to polar and near-polar regions. The major problem in extending the forecast is the focal mechanism calculation on a spherical surface. In the previous forecast as our average focal mechanism was computed, it was assumed that longitude lines are approximately parallel within 1000 km radius. This is largely accurate in the equatorial and near-equatorial areas. However, when one approaches the 75 degree latitude, the longitude lines are no longer parallel: the bearing (azimuthal) difference at points separated by 1000 km reach about 35 degrees. In most situations a forecast point where we calculate an average focal mechanism is surrounded by earthquakes, so a bias should not be strong due to the difference effect cancellation. But if we move into polar regions, the bearing difference could approach 180 degrees. In a modified program focal mechanisms have been projected on a plane tangent to a sphere at a forecast point. New longitude axes which are parallel in the tangent plane are corrected for the bearing difference. A comparison with the old 75S-75N forecast shows that in equatorial regions the forecasted focal mechanisms are almost the same, and the difference in the forecasted focal mechanisms rotation angle is close to zero. However, though the forecasted focal mechanisms are similar

An Evaluation of the NOAA Climate Forecast System Subseasonal Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mass, C.; Weber, N.

2016-12-01

This talk will describe a multi-year evaluation of the 1-5 week forecasts of the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS) over the globe, North America, and the western U.S. Forecasts are evaluated for both specific times and for a variety of time-averaging periods. Initial results show a loss of predictability at approximately three weeks, with sea surface temperature retaining predictability longer than atmospheric variables. It is shown that a major CFS problem is an inability to realistically simulate propagating convection in the tropics, with substantial implications for midlatitude teleconnections and subseasonal predictability. The inability of CFS to deal with tropical convection will be discussed in connection with the prediction of extreme climatic events over the midlatitudes.

Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2015-05-01

Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

Information Manpower Forecasting. Papers Presented at the FID/ET Seminar (Espoo, Finland, August 24-27, 1988).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dosa, Marta L., Ed.; Froehlich, Thomas J., Ed.

This collection contains 20 papers written by educators, administrators and information scientists who had conducted manpower surveys in the library and information fields: (1) "Background and Evolution of Educational Planning and Forecasting for Information Manpower" (Yves Courrier); (2) "Indicators for the Emerging Information…

Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Andrew J. L.

2015-04-01

This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

Sufficient Forecasting Using Factor Models

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Xue, Lingzhou; Yao, Jiawei

2017-01-01

We consider forecasting a single time series when there is a large number of predictors and a possible nonlinear effect. The dimensionality was first reduced via a high-dimensional (approximate) factor model implemented by the principal component analysis. Using the extracted factors, we develop a novel forecasting method called the sufficient forecasting, which provides a set of sufficient predictive indices, inferred from high-dimensional predictors, to deliver additional predictive power. The projected principal component analysis will be employed to enhance the accuracy of inferred factors when a semi-parametric (approximate) factor model is assumed. Our method is also applicable to cross-sectional sufficient regression using extracted factors. The connection between the sufficient forecasting and the deep learning architecture is explicitly stated. The sufficient forecasting correctly estimates projection indices of the underlying factors even in the presence of a nonparametric forecasting function. The proposed method extends the sufficient dimension reduction to high-dimensional regimes by condensing the cross-sectional information through factor models. We derive asymptotic properties for the estimate of the central subspace spanned by these projection directions as well as the estimates of the sufficient predictive indices. We further show that the natural method of running multiple regression of target on estimated factors yields a linear estimate that actually falls into this central subspace. Our method and theory allow the number of predictors to be larger than the number of observations. We finally demonstrate that the sufficient forecasting improves upon the linear forecasting in both simulation studies and an empirical study of forecasting macroeconomic variables. PMID:29731537

Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

2017-12-01

Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

TRAVEL FORECASTER

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mauldin, L. E.

1994-01-01

Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of

Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

2010-05-01

Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

Evaluation of a Wildfire Smoke Forecasting System as a Tool for Public Health Protection

PubMed Central

Brauer, Michael; Henderson, Sarah B.

2013-01-01

Background: Exposure to wildfire smoke has been associated with cardiopulmonary health impacts. Climate change will increase the severity and frequency of smoke events, suggesting a need for enhanced public health protection. Forecasts of smoke exposure can facilitate public health responses. Objectives: We evaluated the utility of a wildfire smoke forecasting system (BlueSky) for public health protection by comparing its forecasts with observations and assessing their associations with population-level indicators of respiratory health in British Columbia, Canada. Methods: We compared BlueSky PM2.5 forecasts with PM2.5 measurements from air quality monitors, and BlueSky smoke plume forecasts with plume tracings from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hazard Mapping System remote sensing data. Daily counts of the asthma drug salbutamol sulfate dispensations and asthma-related physician visits were aggregated for each geographic local health area (LHA). Daily continuous measures of PM2.5 and binary measures of smoke plume presence, either forecasted or observed, were assigned to each LHA. Poisson regression was used to estimate the association between exposure measures and health indicators. Results: We found modest agreement between forecasts and observations, which was improved during intense fire periods. A 30-μg/m3 increase in BlueSky PM2.5 was associated with an 8% increase in salbutamol dispensations and a 5% increase in asthma-related physician visits. BlueSky plume coverage was associated with 5% and 6% increases in the two health indicators, respectively. The effects were similar for observed smoke, and generally stronger in very smoky areas. Conclusions: BlueSky forecasts showed modest agreement with retrospective measures of smoke and were predictive of respiratory health indicators, suggesting they can provide useful information for public health protection. Citation: Yao J, Brauer M, Henderson SB. 2013. Evaluation of a wildfire smoke

Wind-Farm Forecasting Using the HARMONIE Weather Forecast Model and Bayes Model Averaging for Bias Removal.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, Enda; McKinstry, Alastair; Ralph, Adam

2015-04-01

Building on previous work presented at EGU 2013 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610213016068 ), more results are available now from a different wind-farm in complex terrain in southwest Ireland. The basic approach is to interpolate wind-speed forecasts from an operational weather forecast model (i.e., HARMONIE in the case of Ireland) to the precise location of each wind-turbine, and then use Bayes Model Averaging (BMA; with statistical information collected from a prior training-period of e.g., 25 days) to remove systematic biases. Bias-corrected wind-speed forecasts (and associated power-generation forecasts) are then provided twice daily (at 5am and 5pm) out to 30 hours, with each forecast validation fed back to BMA for future learning. 30-hr forecasts from the operational Met Éireann HARMONIE model at 2.5km resolution have been validated against turbine SCADA observations since Jan. 2014. An extra high-resolution (0.5km grid-spacing) HARMONIE configuration has been run since Nov. 2014 as an extra member of the forecast "ensemble". A new version of HARMONIE with extra filters designed to stabilize high-resolution configurations has been run since Jan. 2015. Measures of forecast skill and forecast errors will be provided, and the contributions made by the various physical and computational enhancements to HARMONIE will be quantified.

Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhlthan, A. R.; Vermuri, R. S.

1978-01-01

Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

Environmental Information for the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J.; Miner, C.; Pace, D.; Minnis, P.; Mecikalski, J.; Feltz, W.; Johnson, D.; Iskendarian, H.; Haynes, J.

2009-09-01

. In 2003, a Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) was established by public law to meet the significant challenges that NextGen presents. JPDO partners were chartered which include, but are not limited to, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Department of Defense (DOD) and broad elements of academia and the aviation industry. This paper provides the aviation meteorology community with useful insight on salient NextGen environmental information requirements that have been developed by the JPDO Weather Working Group's Environmental Information Team. These efforts will help to define observation and forecast systems needed to support NextGen and to develop the operational applications for NextGen aviation weather information. Another major goal of this paper is to inform the international weather community of our research progress and plans for NextGen, to foster research collaboration with our colleagues, and to exchange information to maximize success of NextGen, SESAR and related initiatives world-wide.

Statistical evaluation of forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

2014-08-01

Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

NASA/FAA general aviation crash dynamics program - An update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayduk, R. J.; Thomson, R. G.; Carden, H. D.

1979-01-01

Work in progress in the NASA/FAA General Aviation Crash Dynamics Program for the development of technology for increased crash-worthiness and occupant survivability of general aviation aircraft is presented. Full-scale crash testing facilities and procedures are outlined, and a chronological summary of full-scale tests conducted and planned is presented. The Plastic and Large Deflection Analysis of Nonlinear Structures and Modified Seat Occupant Model for Light Aircraft computer programs which form part of the effort to predict nonlinear geometric and material behavior of sheet-stringer aircraft structures subjected to large deformations are described, and excellent agreement between simulations and experiments is noted. The development of structural concepts to attenuate the load transmitted to the passenger through the seats and subfloor structure is discussed, and an apparatus built to test emergency locator transmitters in a realistic environment is presented.

Optimizing Tsunami Forecast Model Accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.; Nyland, D. L.; Huang, P. Y.

2015-12-01

Recent tsunamis provide a means to determine the accuracy that can be expected of real-time tsunami forecast models. Forecast accuracy using two different tsunami forecast models are compared for seven events since 2006 based on both real-time application and optimized, after-the-fact "forecasts". Lessons learned by comparing the forecast accuracy determined during an event to modified applications of the models after-the-fact provide improved methods for real-time forecasting for future events. Variables such as source definition, data assimilation, and model scaling factors are examined to optimize forecast accuracy. Forecast accuracy is also compared for direct forward modeling based on earthquake source parameters versus accuracy obtained by assimilating sea level data into the forecast model. Results show that including assimilated sea level data into the models increases accuracy by approximately 15% for the events examined.

Empirical seasonal forecasts of the NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchezgomez, E.; Ortizbevia, M.

2003-04-01

We present here seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) issued from ocean predictors with an empirical procedure. The Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) of the cross-correlation matrix between predictor and predictand fields at the lag used for the forecast lead is at the core of the empirical model. The main predictor field are sea surface temperature anomalies, although sea ice cover anomalies are also used. Forecasts are issued in probabilistic form. The model is an improvement over a previous version (1), where Sea Level Pressure Anomalies were first forecast, and the NAO Index built from this forecast field. Both correlation skill between forecast and observed field, and number of forecasts that hit the correct NAO sign, are used to assess the forecast performance , usually above those values found in the case of forecasts issued assuming persistence. For certain seasons and/or leads, values of the skill are above the .7 usefulness treshold. References (1) SanchezGomez, E. and Ortiz Bevia M., 2002, Estimacion de la evolucion pluviometrica de la Espana Seca atendiendo a diversos pronosticos empiricos de la NAO, in 'El Agua y el Clima', Publicaciones de la AEC, Serie A, N 3, pp 63-73, Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Stochastic Model of Seasonal Runoff Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, Roman; Watada, Leslie M.

1986-03-01

Each year the National Weather Service and the Soil Conservation Service issue a monthly sequence of five (or six) categorical forecasts of the seasonal snowmelt runoff volume. To describe uncertainties in these forecasts for the purposes of optimal decision making, a stochastic model is formulated. It is a discrete-time, finite, continuous-space, nonstationary Markov process. Posterior densities of the actual runoff conditional upon a forecast, and transition densities of forecasts are obtained from a Bayesian information processor. Parametric densities are derived for the process with a normal prior density of the runoff and a linear model of the forecast error. The structure of the model and the estimation procedure are motivated by analyses of forecast records from five stations in the Snake River basin, from the period 1971-1983. The advantages of supplementing the current forecasting scheme with a Bayesian analysis are discussed.

Type- and Subtype-Specific Influenza Forecast.

PubMed

Kandula, Sasikiran; Yang, Wan; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-03-01

Prediction of the growth and decline of infectious disease incidence has advanced considerably in recent years. As these forecasts improve, their public health utility should increase, particularly as interventions are developed that make explicit use of forecast information. It is the task of the research community to increase the content and improve the accuracy of these infectious disease predictions. Presently, operational real-time forecasts of total influenza incidence are produced at the municipal and state level in the United States. These forecasts are generated using ensemble simulations depicting local influenza transmission dynamics, which have been optimized prior to forecast with observations of influenza incidence and data assimilation methods. Here, we explore whether forecasts targeted to predict influenza by type and subtype during 2003-2015 in the United States were more or less accurate than forecasts targeted to predict total influenza incidence. We found that forecasts separated by type/subtype generally produced more accurate predictions and, when summed, produced more accurate predictions of total influenza incidence. These findings indicate that monitoring influenza by type and subtype not only provides more detailed observational content but supports more accurate forecasting. More accurate forecasting can help officials better respond to and plan for current and future influenza activity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Yang, Wan; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lau, Eric H Y; Shaman, Jeffrey

2015-07-01

Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are able to predict irregular non-seasonal influenza epidemics, using either the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter or a modified particle filter in conjunction with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. We applied these model-filter systems to retrospectively forecast influenza epidemics in Hong Kong from January 1998 to December 2013, including the 2009 pandemic. The forecast systems were able to forecast both the peak timing and peak magnitude for 44 epidemics in 16 years caused by individual influenza strains (i.e., seasonal influenza A(H1N1), pandemic A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B), as well as 19 aggregate epidemics caused by one or more of these influenza strains. Average forecast accuracies were 37% (for both peak timing and magnitude) at 1-3 week leads, and 51% (peak timing) and 50% (peak magnitude) at 0 lead. Forecast accuracy increased as the spread of a given forecast ensemble decreased; the forecast accuracy for peak timing (peak magnitude) increased up to 43% (45%) for H1N1, 93% (89%) for H3N2, and 53% (68%) for influenza B at 1-3 week leads. These findings suggest that accurate forecasts can be made at least 3 weeks in advance for subtropical and tropical regions.

Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

Yang, Wan; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Lau, Eric H. Y.; Shaman, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are able to predict irregular non-seasonal influenza epidemics, using either the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter or a modified particle filter in conjunction with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. We applied these model-filter systems to retrospectively forecast influenza epidemics in Hong Kong from January 1998 to December 2013, including the 2009 pandemic. The forecast systems were able to forecast both the peak timing and peak magnitude for 44 epidemics in 16 years caused by individual influenza strains (i.e., seasonal influenza A(H1N1), pandemic A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B), as well as 19 aggregate epidemics caused by one or more of these influenza strains. Average forecast accuracies were 37% (for both peak timing and magnitude) at 1-3 week leads, and 51% (peak timing) and 50% (peak magnitude) at 0 lead. Forecast accuracy increased as the spread of a given forecast ensemble decreased; the forecast accuracy for peak timing (peak magnitude) increased up to 43% (45%) for H1N1, 93% (89%) for H3N2, and 53% (68%) for influenza B at 1-3 week leads. These findings suggest that accurate forecasts can be made at least 3 weeks in advance for subtropical and tropical regions. PMID:26226185

Prediction of success in FAA air traffic control field training as a function of selection and screening test performance.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-05-01

This study compared correlations between Office of Personnel Management (OPM) selection test scores for Air Traffic Control Specialists (ATCSs) and scores from the FAA Academy's second-stage screening program with measures of field training performan...

Econometrics 101: forecasting demystified

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crow, R.T.

1980-05-01

Forecasting by econometric modeling is described in a commonsense way which omits much of the technical jargon. A trend of continuous growth is no longer an adequate forecasting tool. Today's forecasters must consider rapid changes in price, policies, regulations, capital availability, and the cost of being wrong. A forecasting model is designed by identifying future influences on electricity purchases and quantifying their relationships to each other. A record is produced which can be evaluated and used to make corrections in the models. Residential consumption is used to illustrate how this works and to demonstrate how power consumption is also relatedmore » to the purchase and use of equipment. While models can quantify behavioral relationships, they cannot account for the impacts of non-price factors because of limited data. (DCK)« less

Solid-phase extraction and separation procedure for trace aluminum in water samples and its determination by high-resolution continuum source flame atomic absorption spectrometry (HR-CS FAAS).

PubMed

Ciftci, Harun; Er, Cigdem

2013-03-01

In the present study, a separation/preconcentration procedure for determination of aluminum in water samples has been developed by using a new atomic absorption spectrometer concept with a high-intensity xenon short-arc lamp as continuum radiation source, a high-resolution double-echelle monochromator, and a charge-coupled device array detector. Sample solution pH, sample volume, flow rate of sample solution, volume, and concentration of eluent for solid-phase extraction of Al chelates with 4-[(dicyanomethyl)diazenyl] benzoic acid on polymeric resin (Duolite XAD-761) have been investigated. The adsorbed aluminum on resin was eluted with 5 mL of 2 mol L(-1) HNO(3) and its concentration was determined by high-resolution continuum source flame atomic absorption spectrometry (HR-CS FAAS). Under the optimal conditions, limit of detection obtained with HR-CS FAAS and Line Source FAAS (LS-FAAS) were 0.49 μg L(-1) and 3.91 μg L(-1), respectively. The accuracy of the procedure was confirmed by analyzing certified materials (NIST SRM 1643e, Trace elements in water) and spiked real samples. The developed procedure was successfully applied to water samples.

Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

Treesearch

James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

2001-01-01

Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

Forecasts for NOAA Marine Sanctuaries

Science.gov Websites

/Forecast The Gray's Reef Sea Turtle Satellite Tagging Project utilizes satellite transmitter tags to Synopsis/Forecast(0-20nm) Synopsis/Forecast(20-60nm) The Gray's Reef Sea Turtle Satellite Tagging Project utilizes satellite transmitter tags to monitor adult and juvenile loggerhead sea click image for more

ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-11-01

In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

Next-Day Earthquake Forecasts for California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, M. J.; Jackson, D. D.; Kagan, Y. Y.

2008-12-01

We implemented a daily forecast of m > 4 earthquakes for California in the format suitable for testing in community-based earthquake predictability experiments: Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) and the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The forecast is based on near-real time earthquake reports from the ANSS catalog above magnitude 2 and will be available online. The model used to generate the forecasts is based on the Epidemic-Type Earthquake Sequence (ETES) model, a stochastic model of clustered and triggered seismicity. Our particular implementation is based on the earlier work of Helmstetter et al. (2006, 2007), but we extended the forecast to all of Cali-fornia, use more data to calibrate the model and its parameters, and made some modifications. Our forecasts will compete against the Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities (STEP) forecasts of Gersten-berger et al. (2005) and other models in the next-day testing class of the CSEP experiment in California. We illustrate our forecasts with examples and discuss preliminary results.

Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; ...

2015-11-10

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

An Assessment of the Subseasonal Forecast Performance in the Extended Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinsky, E.; Zhu, Y.; Li, W.; Guan, H.; Melhauser, C.

2017-12-01

Optimal forecast quality is crucial for the preservation of life and property. Improving monthly forecast performance over both the tropics and extra-tropics requires attention to various physical aspects such as the representation of the underlying SST, model physics and the representation of the model physics uncertainty for an ensemble forecast system. This work focuses on the impact of stochastic physics, SST and the convection scheme on forecast performance for the sub-seasonal scale over the tropics and extra-tropics with emphasis on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A 2-year period is evaluated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Three experiments with different configurations than the operational GEFS were performed to illustrate the impact of the stochastic physics, SST and convection scheme. These experiments are compared against a control experiment (CTL) which consists of the operational GEFS but its integration is extended from 16 to 35 days. The three configurations are: 1) SPs, which uses a Stochastically Perturbed Physics Tendencies (SPPT), Stochastic Perturbed Humidity (SHUM) and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB); 2) SPs+SST_bc, which uses a combination of SPs and a bias-corrected forecast SST from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2); and 3) SPs+SST_bc+SA_CV, which combines SPs, a bias-corrected forecast SST and a scale aware convection scheme. When comparing to the CTL experiment, SPs shows substantial improvement. The MJO skill has improved by about 4 lead days during the 2-year period. Improvement is also seen over the extra-tropics due to the updated stochastic physics, where there is a 3.1% and a 4.2% improvement during weeks 3 and 4 over the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere, respectively. Improvement is also seen when the bias-corrected CFSv2 SST is combined with SPs. Additionally, forecast performance enhances when the scale aware

Real-time eruption forecasting using the material Failure Forecast Method with a Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boué, A.; Lesage, P.; Cortés, G.; Valette, B.; Reyes-Dávila, G.

2015-04-01