Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Ho Chi Minh City and Nghe An Using Social App Multiplier Method.

PubMed

Safarnejad, Ali; Nga, Nguyen Thien; Son, Vo Hai

2017-06-01

This study aims to estimate the number of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Nghe An province, Viet Nam, using a novel method of population size estimation, and to assess the feasibility of the method in implementation. An innovative approach to population size estimation grounded on the principles of the multiplier method, and using social app technology and internet-based surveys was undertaken among MSM in two regions of Viet Nam in 2015. Enumeration of active users of popular social apps for MSM in Viet Nam was conducted over 4 weeks. Subsequently, an independent online survey was done using respondent driven sampling. We also conducted interviews with key informants in Nghe An and HCMC on their experience and perceptions of this method and other methods of size estimation. The population of MSM in Nghe An province was estimated to be 1765 [90% CI 1251-3150]. The population of MSM in HCMC was estimated to be 37,238 [90% CI 24,146-81,422]. These estimates correspond to 0.17% of the adult male population in Nghe An province [90% CI 0.12-0.30], and 1.35% of the adult male population in HCMC [90% CI 0.87-2.95]. Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.35% [90% CI 0.87%-2.95%] of the adult male population in HCMC) fall within current standard practice of estimating 1-3% of adult male population in big cities. Our size estimates of the MSM population (0.17% [90% CI 0.12-0.30] of the adult male population in Nghe An province) are lower than the current standard practice of estimating 0.5-1.5% of adult male population in rural provinces. These estimates can provide valuable information for sub-national level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe that our results help to improve application of this population size estimation method in other regions of Viet Nam.

Population estimate of the preantral follicles and frequency of multioocyte follicles in prepubertal and adult bitches.

PubMed

Lunardon, N T; Silva-Santos, K C; Justino, R C; Dessunti, G T; Seneda, M M; Martins, M I M

2015-04-01

Oocytes from preantral follicles could be an alternative for in vitro maturation because most follicles are at the preantral stage. There are few studies that have sought to estimate the number of preantral follicles in bitches. Therefore, the aims of this study were to estimate the population of preantral follicles in the ovaries of small- and medium-sized prepubertal and adult bitches and compare the population of preantral follicles between the right and left ovaries and evaluate the frequency of multioocyte follicles (MOF). Eighty ovaries were collected by elective ovariohysterectomy from 40 healthy bitches. The bitches were divided into four groups: small-size prepubertal bitches (<10 kg, n = 20), medium-size prepubertal bitches (10-20 kg, n = 20), small-size adult bitches (<10 kg, n = 20), and medium-size adult bitches (10-20 kg, n = 20). Immediately after surgery, the ovaries were fixed in Bouin's solution and processed for histology. For each specimen, 70 histologic sections were cut and mounted on slides; then, the number of preantral follicles was estimated using a correction factor. The preantral follicles were classified according to the developmental stage. The data were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis test followed by Dunn's test for comparison between groups, and Fisher's exact test was used to evaluate the frequency of MOF (P ≤ 0.05). Considering the population of preantral follicles from the pair of ovaries, medium-size prepubertal bitches had the highest (P < 0.05) population of preantral follicles compared with the small and medium-size adult groups. There was a large variation in the numbers of preantral follicles among individuals of the same weight and within each group. There were differences between medium-size prepubertal and adult bitches regarding the population of preantral follicles in the right ovaries (145,482 ± 110,712 vs. 49,500 ± 44,821; P = 0.02); however, no differences were observed between the

Population size estimation of female sex workers in Iran: Synthesis of methods and results

PubMed Central

Sharifi, Hamid; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Shokoohi, Mostafa; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; McFarland, Willi

2017-01-01

Introduction Estimating the number of key populations at risk of HIV is essential for planning, monitoring, and evaluating prevention, care, and treatment programmes. We conducted this study to estimate the number of female sex workers (FSW) in major cities of Iran. Methods We used three population size estimation methods (i.e., wisdom of the crowds, multiplier method, and network scale-up) to calculate the number of FSW in 13 cities in Iran. The wisdom of the crowds and multiplier methods were integrated into a nationwide bio-behavioural surveillance survey in 2015, and the network scale-up method was included in a national survey of the general population in 2014. The median of the three methods was used to calculate the proportion of the adult female population who practice sex work in the 13 cities. These figures were then extrapolated to provide a national population size estimation of FSW across urban areas. Results The population size of FSW was 91,500 (95% Uncertainty Intervals [UIs] 61,400–117,700), corresponding to 1.43% (95% UIs 0.96–1.84) of the adult (i.e., 15–49 year-old) female population living in these 13 cities. The projected numbers of FSW for all 31 provincial capital cities were 130,800 (95% UIs 87,800–168,200) and 228,700 (95% UIs 153,500–294,300) for all urban settings in Iran. Conclusions Using methods of comparable rigor, our study provided a data-driven national estimate of the population size of FSW in urban areas of Iran. Our findings provide vital information for enhancing HIV programme planning and lay a foundation for assessing the impact of harm reduction efforts within this marginalized population. PMID:28796847

Sertoli cell androgen receptor expression regulates temporal fetal and adult Leydig cell differentiation, function, and population size.

PubMed

Hazra, Rasmani; Jimenez, Mark; Desai, Reena; Handelsman, David J; Allan, Charles M

2013-09-01

We recently created a mouse model displaying precocious Sertoli cell (SC) and spermatogenic development induced by SC-specific transgenic androgen receptor expression (TgSCAR). Here we reveal that TgSCAR regulates the development, function, and absolute number of Leydig cells (LCs). Total fetal and adult type LC numbers were reduced in postnatal and adult TgSCAR vs control testes, despite normal circulating LH levels. Normal LC to SC ratios found in TgSCAR testes indicate that SC androgen receptor (SCAR)-mediated activity confers a quorum-dependent relationship between total SC and LC numbers. TgSCAR enhanced LC differentiation, shown by elevated ratios of advanced to immature LC types, and reduced LC proliferation in postnatal TgSCAR vs control testes. Postnatal TgSCAR testes displayed up-regulated expression of coupled ligand-receptor transcripts (Amh-Amhr2, Dhh-Ptch1, Pdgfa-Pdgfra) for potential SCAR-stimulated paracrine pathways, which may coordinate LC differentiation. Neonatal TgSCAR testes displayed normal T and dihydrotestosterone levels despite differential changes to steroidogenic gene expression, with down-regulated Star, Cyp11a1, and Cyp17a1 expression contrasting with up-regulated Hsd3b1, Hsd17b3, and Srd5a1 expression. TgSCAR males also displayed elevated postnatal and normal adult serum testosterone levels, despite reduced LC numbers. Enhanced adult-type LC steroidogenic output was revealed by increased pubertal testicular T, dihydrotestosterone, 3α-diol and 3β-diol levels per LC and up-regulated steroidogenic gene (Nr5a1, Lhr, Cyp11a1, Cyp17a1, Hsd3b6, Srd5a1) expression in pubertal or adult TgSCAR vs control males, suggesting regulatory mechanisms maintain androgen levels independently of absolute LC numbers. Our unique gain-of-function TgSCAR model has revealed that SCAR activity controls temporal LC differentiation, steroidogenic function, and population size.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

PubMed

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

PubMed Central

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

Proximate contributions to adult body size in two species of Dusky Salamanders (Plethodontidae: Desmognathus)

Treesearch

Richard Bruce

2010-01-01

I used skeletochronological data to evaluate the contributions of propagule size, larval/juvenile growth, and age at first reproduction to differences in adult body size in two species of plethodontid salamanders of the genus Desmognathus. The traits in question were evaluated in populations of the larger D. quadramaculatus and smaller D. monticola in the southern Blue...

Impact of minimum catch size on the population viability of Strombus gigas (Mesogastropoda: Strombidae) in Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Peel, Joanne R; Mandujano, María del Carmen

2014-12-01

The queen conch Strombus gigas represents one of the most important fishery resources of the Caribbean but heavy fishing pressure has led to the depletion of stocks throughout the region, causing the inclusion of this species into CITES Appendix II and IUCN's Red-List. In Mexico, the queen conch is managed through a minimum fishing size of 200 mm shell length and a fishing quota which usually represents 50% of the adult biomass. The objectives of this study were to determine the intrinsic population growth rate of the queen conch population of Xel-Ha, Quintana Roo, Mexico, and to assess the effects of a regulated fishing impact, simulating the extraction of 50% adult biomass on the population density. We used three different minimum size criteria to demonstrate the effects of minimum catch size on the population density and discuss biological implications. Demographic data was obtained through capture-mark-recapture sampling, collecting all animals encountered during three hours, by three divers, at four different sampling sites of the Xel-Ha inlet. The conch population was sampled each month between 2005 and 2006, and bimonthly between 2006 and 2011, tagging a total of 8,292 animals. Shell length and lip thickness were determined for each individual. The average shell length for conch with formed lip in Xel-Ha was 209.39 ± 14.18 mm and the median 210 mm. Half of the sampled conch with lip ranged between 200 mm and 219 mm shell length. Assuming that the presence of the lip is an indicator for sexual maturity, it can be concluded that many animals may form their lip at greater shell lengths than 200 mm and ought to be considered immature. Estimation of relative adult abundance and densities varied greatly depending on the criteria employed for adult classification. When using a minimum fishing size of 200 mm shell length, between 26.2% and up to 54.8% of the population qualified as adults, which represented a simulated fishing impact of almost one third of the

Effective size of density-dependent two-sex populations: the effect of mating systems.

PubMed

Myhre, A M; Engen, S; SAEther, B-E

2017-08-01

Density dependence in vital rates is a key feature affecting temporal fluctuations of natural populations. This has important implications for the rate of random genetic drift. Mating systems also greatly affect effective population sizes, but knowledge of how mating system and density regulation interact to affect random genetic drift is poor. Using theoretical models and simulations, we compare N e in short-lived, density-dependent animal populations with different mating systems. We study the impact of a fluctuating, density-dependent sex ratio and consider both a stable and a fluctuating environment. We find a negative relationship between annual N e /N and adult population size N due to density dependence, suggesting that loss of genetic variation is reduced at small densities. The magnitude of this decrease was affected by mating system and life history. A male-biased, density-dependent sex ratio reduces the rate of genetic drift compared to an equal, density-independent sex ratio, but a stochastic change towards male bias reduces the N e /N ratio. Environmental stochasticity amplifies temporal fluctuations in population size and is thus vital to consider in estimation of effective population sizes over longer time periods. Our results on the reduced loss of genetic variation at small densities, particularly in polygamous populations, indicate that density regulation may facilitate adaptive evolution at small population sizes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

A critical assessment of estimating census population size from genetic population size (or vice versa) in three fishes.

PubMed

Yates, Matthew Carl; Bernos, Thais A; Fraser, Dylan J

2017-10-01

Technological and methodological advances have facilitated the use of genetic data to infer census population size (N c ) in natural populations, particularly where traditional mark-and-recapture is challenging. The effective number of breeders (N b ) describes how many adults effectively contribute to a cohort and is often correlated with N c . Predicting N c from N b or vice versa in species with overlapping generations has important implications for conservation by permitting (i) estimation of the more difficult to quantify variable and (ii) inferences of N b /N c relationships in related species lacking data. We quantitatively synthesized N b /N c relationships in three salmonid fishes where sufficient data have recently accumulated. Mixed-effects models were analysed in which each variable was included as a dependent variable or predictor term (N b from N c and vice versa). Species-dependent N b /N c slope estimates were significantly positive in two of three species. Variation in species slopes was likely due to varying life histories and reinforce caution when inferring N b /N c from taxonomically related species. Models provided maximum probable estimates for N b and N c for two species. However, study, population and year effects explained substantial amounts of variation (39%-57%). Consequently, prediction intervals were wide and included or were close to zero for all population sizes and species; model predictive utility was limited. Cost-benefit trade-offs when estimating N b and/or N c were also discussed using a real-world system example. Our findings based on salmonids suggest that no short cuts currently exist when estimating population size and researchers should focus on quantifying the variable of interest or be aware of caveats when inferring the desired variable because of cost or logistics. We caution that the salmonid species examined share life-history traits that may obscure relationships between N b and N c . Sufficient data on other taxa

Constraints on the adult-offspring size relationship in protists.

PubMed

Caval-Holme, Franklin; Payne, Jonathan; Skotheim, Jan M

2013-12-01

The relationship between adult and offspring size is an important aspect of reproductive strategy. Although this filial relationship has been extensively examined in plants and animals, we currently lack comparable data for protists, whose strategies may differ due to the distinct ecological and physiological constraints on single-celled organisms. Here, we report measurements of adult and offspring sizes in 3888 species and subspecies of foraminifera, a class of large marine protists. Foraminifera exhibit a wide range of reproductive strategies; species of similar adult size may have offspring whose sizes vary 100-fold. Yet, a robust pattern emerges. The minimum (5th percentile), median, and maximum (95th percentile) offspring sizes exhibit a consistent pattern of increase with adult size independent of environmental change and taxonomic variation over the past 400 million years. The consistency of this pattern may arise from evolutionary optimization of the offspring size-fecundity trade-off and/or from cell-biological constraints that limit the range of reproductive strategies available to single-celled organisms. When compared with plants and animals, foraminifera extend the evidence that offspring size covaries with adult size across an additional five orders of magnitude in organism size. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Population Health Management for Older Adults

PubMed Central

Tkatch, Rifky; Musich, Shirley; MacLeod, Stephanie; Alsgaard, Kathleen; Hawkins, Kevin; Yeh, Charlotte S.

2016-01-01

Background: The older adult population is expanding, living longer, with multiple chronic conditions. Understanding and managing their needs over time is an integral part of defining successful aging. Population health is used to describe the measurement and health outcomes of a population. Objectives: To define population health as applied to older adults, summarize lessons learned from current research, and identify potential interventions designed to promote successful aging and improved health for this population. Method: Online search engines were utilized to identify research on population health and health interventions for older adults. Results: Population health management (PHM) is one strategy to promote the health and well-being of target populations. Interventions promoting health across a continuum tend to be disease, risk, or health behavior specific rather than encompassing a global concept of health. Conclusion: Many existing interventions for older adults are simply research based with limited generalizability; as such, further work in this area is warranted. PMID:28680938

The Population Size of the Lesser Bandicoot (Bandicota bengalensis) in Three Markets in Penang, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Khairuddin, Nurul Liyana; Raghazli, Razlina; Sah, Shahrul Anuar Mohd; Shafie, Nur Juliani; Azman, Nur Munira

2011-01-01

A study of the population size of Bandicota bengalensis rats in three markets in Penang was conducted from April 2004 through May 2005. Taman Tun Sardon Market (TTS), Batu Lanchang Market (BTLG) and Bayan Lepas Market (BYNLP) were surveyed. Six sampling sessions were conducted in each market for four consecutive nights per session. The total captures of B. bengalensis in TTS, BTLG and BYNLP were 92%, 73% and 89% respectively. The total population of B. bengalensis in TTS was estimated as 265.4 (with a 95% confidence interval of 180.9–424.2). The total population at BTLG was estimated as 69.9 (with a 95% confidence interval of 35.5–148.9). At BYNLP, the total population was estimated as 134.7 (with a 95% confidence interval of 77.8–278.4). In general, adult male rats were captured most frequently at each site (55.19%), followed by adult females (31.69%), juvenile males (9.84%) and juvenile females (3.27%). The results showed that the number of rats captured at each site differed significantly according to sex ratio and maturity (χ2 = 121.45, df = 3, p<0.01). Our results suggest that the population sizes found by the study may not represent the actual population size in each market owing to the low numbers of rats recaptured. This finding might have resulted from the variety of foods available in the markets. PMID:24575219

Anemia and Iron Status Among Different Body Size Phenotypes in Chinese Adult Population: a Nation-Wide, Health and Nutrition Survey.

PubMed

Li, Jiang; Xiao, Cheng; Yang, Hui; Zhou, Yun; Wang, Rui; Cao, Yongtong

2017-12-09

Previous studies have shown that there is a controversial relationship between iron homeostasis and obesity. This study aims to explore the relationship of anemia and iron status with different body size phenotypes in adult Chinese population. Using information on iron status-related parameters and lifestyle data from 8462 participants of the 2009 wave of China Health and Nutrition Survey (2009 CHNS), we performed multivariable logistic regression analyses to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for the risk of anemia and iron parameters according to different body size phenotypes. Participants with higher body mass index (BMI) had a lower anemia prevalence with significant trends in both metabolic status groups (P < 0.001). Serum ferritin, transferrin, and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR)/log ferritin index were significant in different metabolic status groups and in different body size phenotypes, respectively. The ORs for higher ferritin and transferrin increased across different body size phenotypes in both genders, and for sTfR/log ferritin index decreased (P < 0.01 for trend). This association was still statistically significant after adjustment for multiple confounders. We found an inverse association of BMI levels with the prevalence of anemia and strong association of serum ferritin and transferrin with higher risk of obesity or overweight in both metabolic status groups.

Development of Activity and Participation Norms among General Adult Populations in Taiwan.

PubMed

Yen, Chia-Feng; Chiu, Tzu-Ying; Liou, Tsan-Hon; Chi, Wen-Chou; Liao, Hua-Fang; Liang, Chung-Chao; Escorpizo, Reuben

2017-06-06

Based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) and the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0), The Functioning Disability Evaluation Scale-Adult version (FUNDES-Adult) began development in 2011. The FUNDES-Adult was designed to assess the difficulty level of an individual's activities and participation in daily life. There is a lack of research regarding the profile of activity and participation for the general adult population. The purposes of this study were to establish activity and participation norms for the general adult population in Taiwan and to describe, discuss, and compare the activity and participation profile with other population. A population-based survey was administered in 2013 using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing system (CATI system). Using probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling and systematic sampling with random digit dialing (RDD), 1500 adults from Taiwan's general population were selected to participate in the survey. The FUNDES-Adult with six domains and two dimensions (performance and capability) was used to obtain data on activities and participation levels. A higher domain score indicated higher participation restriction. Approximately 50% of the respondents were male, and the average age of the respondents was 45.23 years. There were no significant differences in the demographic features between the sample and the population. Among the six domains, the self-care domain score was the lowest (least restriction) and the participation domain score was the highest (most restriction). Approximately 90% of the sample scored were less than 15, and only 0.1% scored more than 80. This is the first cross-national population-based survey to assess norms of activity and participation relevant to the general population of Taiwan. As such, the results of this survey can be used as a reference for comparing the activity and participation (AP) functioning of

A Meta-Analysis of Dunn and Dunn Model Correlational Research with Adult Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mangino, Christine

2004-01-01

The purpose of this investigation was to conduct a quantitative synthesis of correlational research that focused on the Dunn and Dunn Learning-Style Model and was concerned with adult populations. A total of 8,661 participants from the 47 original investigations provided 386 individual effect sizes for this meta-analysis. The mean effect size was…

Inter-class competition in stage-structured populations: effects of adult density on life-history traits of adult and juvenile common lizards.

PubMed

San-Jose, Luis M; Peñalver-Alcázar, Miguel; Huyghe, Katleen; Breedveld, Merel C; Fitze, Patrick S

2016-12-01

Ecological and evolutionary processes in natural populations are largely influenced by the population's stage-structure. Commonly, different classes have different competitive abilities, e.g., due to differences in body size, suggesting that inter-class competition may be important and largely asymmetric. However, experimental evidence states that inter-class competition, which is important, is rare and restricted to marine fish. Here, we manipulated the adult density in six semi-natural populations of the European common lizard, Zootoca vivipara, while holding juvenile density constant. Adult density affected juveniles, but not adults, in line with inter-class competition. High adult density led to lower juvenile survival and growth before hibernation. In contrast, juvenile survival after hibernation was higher in populations with high adult density, pointing to relaxed inter-class competition. As a result, annual survival was not affected by adult density, showing that differences in pre- and post-hibernation survival balanced each other out. The intensity of inter-class competition affected reproduction, performance, and body size in juveniles. Path analyses unravelled direct treatment effects on early growth (pre-hibernation) and no direct treatment effects on the parameters measured after hibernation. This points to allometry of treatment-induced differences in early growth, and it suggests that inter-class competition mainly affects the early growth of the competitively inferior class and thereby their future performance and reproduction. These results are in contrast with previous findings and, together with results in marine fish, suggest that the strength and direction of density dependence may depend on the degree of inter-class competition, and thus on the availability of resources used by the competing classes.

Association of Overweight with Food Portion Size among Adults of São Paulo - Brazil.

PubMed

Pereira, Jaqueline Lopes; Mendes, Aline; Crispim, Sandra Patricia; Marchioni, Dirce Maria; Fisberg, Regina Mara

2016-01-01

Although studies show that portion size affects energy intake, few have demonstrated a link between portion size and weight status, especially in free-living populations. The objective of the present study was to assess the relationship between food portion sizes and overweight in a representative population of adults of São Paulo, Brazil. Cross-sectional population-based study with 1005 adults from São Paulo, Brazil. Dietary data were obtained from two 24-hour recalls. Reported foods were classified into groups and energy contribution, prevalence of consumers and portion sizes were calculated. Individuals were classified according to BMI in with and without overweight. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between food portion sizes and being overweight. The most consumed food groups were: beans, breads/rolls, coffee/tea, milk, rice, and sugar. Rice, red meat, breads/rolls, and white meat were the groups with the highest percentage of contribution to total energy intake. Butter/margarine, toasts/biscuits, sugar, and cakes were the groups with the highest energy density. After adjustment for confounding variables, overweight was associated with larger portions of pizza (OR = 1.052; p = 0.048), red meat (OR = 1.025; p = 0.043), rice (OR = 1.033; p<0.001), salted snacks (OR = 1.078; p = 0.022), and soft drinks (OR = 1.016; p = 0.007). Larger portions of few food groups with different energy densities were associated with being overweight, suggesting that overweight may be related to the consumption of larger portion sizes of a series of food groups, not a food group alone. Additionally, we highlight the importance of considering underreporting as a confounding factor in these associations.

Size of the lower third molar space in relation to age in Serbian population.

PubMed

Zelić, Ksenija; Nedeljković, Nenad

2013-10-01

It is considered that the shortage of space is the major cause of the third molar impaction. The aim of this study was to establish the frequency of insufficient lower third molar eruption space in Serbian population, to question the differences in this frequency in the subjects of different age, to determine the influence of the lower third molar space (retromolar space) size on third molar eruption, and to investigate a possible correlation between the size of gonial angle and the space/third molar width ratio. Digital orthopantomograms were taken from 93 patients divided into two groups: early adult (16-18 years of age) and adult (18-26) patients. Retromolar space, mesiodistal third molar crown width, gonial angle and eruption levels were measured. The space/third molar width in early adult subjects was smaller (p < 0.0001) and insufficient space was significantly more frequent (p = 0.0003) than in adult patients. Considerably more third molars erupted in case of enough space in both age groups (p < 0.0001). There was no difference between the means of gonial angle size in relations to the available space. The retromolar space/third molar width ratio is more favorable in adult subjects. Gonial angle is not in correlation with the retromolar space/third molar width ratio.

Population size and relative abundance of adult Alabama shad reaching jim woodruff lock and dam, Apalachicola River, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, Patrick C.; Young, S.P.; Isely, J.J.

2008-01-01

We estimated the population size of migrating Alabama shad Alosa alabamae below Jim Woodruff Lock and Dam in the Apalachicola River (located in the central panhandle of northwestern Florida) using mark-recapture and relative abundance techniques. After adjustment for tag loss, emigration, and mortality, the population size was estimated as 25,935 (95% confidence interval, 17,715-39,535) in 2005, 2,767 (838-5,031) in 2006, and 8,511 (5,211-14,674) in 2007. The cumulative catch rate from boat electrofishing averaged 20.47 Alabama shad per hour in 2005, 6.10 per hour in 2006, and 13.17 per hour in 2007. The relationship between population size (N) and electrofishing catch per unit effort (CPUE) was modeled by the equation N = -9008.2 + (electrofishing CPUE X 1616.4). Additionally, in 2007 the hook-and-line catch rate averaged 1.94 Alabama shad per rod hour. A predictive model relating the population size and hook-and-line CPUE of spawning American shad A. sapidissima was applied to Alabama shad hook-and-line CPUE and produced satisfactory results. Recent spawning populations of Alabama shad in the Apalachicola River are low relative to American shad populations in other southeastern U.S. rivers. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pleasants, John M.; Zalucki, Myron P.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Brower, Lincoln P.; Taylor, Orley R.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects.

PubMed

Pleasants, John M; Zalucki, Myron P; Oberhauser, Karen S; Brower, Lincoln P; Taylor, Orley R; Thogmartin, Wayne E

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

A phylogenetic analysis of egg size, clutch size, spawning mode, adult body size, and latitude in reef fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasimatis, Katja; Riginos, Cynthia

2016-06-01

Theoretical treatments of egg size in fishes suggest that constraints on reproductive output should create trade-offs between the size and number of eggs produced per spawn. For marine reef fishes, the observation of distinct reproductive care strategies (demersal guarding, egg scattering, and pelagic spawning) has additionally prompted speculation that these strategies reflect alternative fitness optima with selection on egg size differing by reproductive mode and perhaps latitude. Here, we aggregate data from 278 reef fish species and test whether clutch size, reproductive care, adult body size, and latitudinal bands (i.e., tropical, subtropical, and temperate) predict egg size, using a statistically unified framework that accounts for phylogenetic correlations among traits. We find no inverse relationship between species egg size and clutch size, but rather that egg size differs by reproductive mode (mean volume for demersal eggs = 1.22 mm3, scattered eggs = 0.18 mm3, pelagic eggs = 0.52 mm3) and that clutch size is strongly correlated with adult body size. Larger eggs were found in temperate species compared with tropical species in both demersal guarders and pelagic spawners, but this difference was not strong when accounting for phylogenetic correlations, suggesting that differences in species composition underlies regional differences in egg size. In summary, demersal guarders are generally small fishes with small clutch sizes that produce large eggs. Pelagic spawners and egg scatterers are variable in adult and clutch size. Although pelagic spawned eggs are variable in size, those of scatterers are consistently small.

Estimating total population size for Songbirds

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart

2005-01-01

A conviction has developed during the past few years within the avian conservation community that estimates of total population size are needed for many species, especially ones that warrant conservation action. For example, the recently completed monitoring plans for North American shorebirds and landbirds establish estimating population size as a major objective....

Place matters: A longitudinal analysis measuring the association between neighbourhood walkability and walking by age group and population center size in Canada.

PubMed

Wasfi, Rania; Steinmetz-Wood, Madeleine; Kestens, Yan

2017-01-01

This study examined the influence of walkability on walking behaviour and assessed whether associations varied according to life-stage and population center (PC) size. Walkability scores were obtained for the six-digit postal codes of residential neighbourhoods of 11,200 Canadians, who participated in biennial assessments of the National Population Health Survey from 1994 to 2010. Participants were stratified by age-group. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to estimate the influence of cumulative exposure to neighborhood walkability on utilitarian and exercise walking by PC size and life-stage. Associations of neighbourhood walkability with utilitarian and exercise walking varied according to age-group and PC size. Exposure to high walkable neighborhoods was associated with utilitarian walking in younger and older adults in all PC sizes, except for older adults living in a medium PC. Living in a highly walkable neighborhood in a large PC was associated with walking for exercise in younger (OR: 1.42; 95%CI: 1.20-1.67) and older adults (OR: 2.09; 95%CI: 1.51-2.89). Living in highly walkable neighbourhood in a medium PC was associated with walking for exercise in older adults (OR: 1.62; 95%CI: 1.15-2.29). These results emphasize the need to consider the size and nature of every community, and the age-group of a population when implementing strategies to promote walking.

How many steps/day are enough? For older adults and special populations

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Older adults and special populations (living with disability and/or chronic illness that may limit mobility and/or physical endurance) can benefit from practicing a more physically active lifestyle, typically by increasing ambulatory activity. Step counting devices (accelerometers and pedometers) offer an opportunity to monitor daily ambulatory activity; however, an appropriate translation of public health guidelines in terms of steps/day is unknown. Therefore this review was conducted to translate public health recommendations in terms of steps/day. Normative data indicates that 1) healthy older adults average 2,000-9,000 steps/day, and 2) special populations average 1,200-8,800 steps/day. Pedometer-based interventions in older adults and special populations elicit a weighted increase of approximately 775 steps/day (or an effect size of 0.26) and 2,215 steps/day (or an effect size of 0.67), respectively. There is no evidence to inform a moderate intensity cadence (i.e., steps/minute) in older adults at this time. However, using the adult cadence of 100 steps/minute to demark the lower end of an absolutely-defined moderate intensity (i.e., 3 METs), and multiplying this by 30 minutes produces a reasonable heuristic (i.e., guiding) value of 3,000 steps. However, this cadence may be unattainable in some frail/diseased populations. Regardless, to truly translate public health guidelines, these steps should be taken over and above activities performed in the course of daily living, be of at least moderate intensity accumulated in minimally 10 minute bouts, and add up to at least 150 minutes over the week. Considering a daily background of 5,000 steps/day (which may actually be too high for some older adults and/or special populations), a computed translation approximates 8,000 steps on days that include a target of achieving 30 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), and approximately 7,100 steps/day if averaged over a week. Measured directly and

Detecting past changes of effective population size

PubMed Central

Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

2014-01-01

Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff. PMID:25067949

Deformable adult human phantoms for radiation protection dosimetry: anthropometric data representing size distributions of adult worker populations and software algorithms

PubMed Central

Na, Yong Hum; Zhang, Binquan; Zhang, Juying; Caracappa, Peter F; Xu, X George

2012-01-01

Computational phantoms representing workers and patients are essential in estimating organ doses from various occupational radiation exposures and medical procedures. Nearly all existing phantoms, however, were purposely designed to match internal and external anatomical features of the Reference Man as defined by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). To reduce uncertainty in dose calculations caused by anatomical variations, a new generation of phantoms of varying organ and body sizes is needed. This paper presents detailed anatomical data in tables and graphs that are used to design such size-adjustable phantoms representing a range of adult individuals in terms of the body height, body weight and internal organ volume/mass. Two different sets of information are used to derive the phantom sets: (1) individual internal organ size and volume/mass distribution data derived from the recommendations of the ICRP in Publications 23 and 89 and (2) whole-body height and weight percentile data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999–2002). The NHANES height and weight data for 19 year old males and females are used to estimate the distributions of individuals’ size, which is unknown, that corresponds to the ICRP organ and tissue distributions. This paper then demonstrates the usage of these anthropometric data in the development of deformable anatomical phantoms. A pair of phantoms—modeled entirely in mesh surfaces—of the adult male and female, RPI-adult male (AM) and RPI-adult female (AF) are used as the base for size-adjustable phantoms. To create percentile-specific phantoms from these two base phantoms, organ surface boundaries are carefully altered according to the tabulated anthropometric data. Software algorithms are developed to automatically match the organ volumes and masses with desired values. Finally, these mesh-based, percentile-specific phantoms are converted into voxel-based phantoms for Monte

Deformable adult human phantoms for radiation protection dosimetry: anthropometric data representing size distributions of adult worker populations and software algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hum Na, Yong; Zhang, Binquan; Zhang, Juying; Caracappa, Peter F.; Xu, X. George

2010-07-01

Computational phantoms representing workers and patients are essential in estimating organ doses from various occupational radiation exposures and medical procedures. Nearly all existing phantoms, however, were purposely designed to match internal and external anatomical features of the Reference Man as defined by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). To reduce uncertainty in dose calculations caused by anatomical variations, a new generation of phantoms of varying organ and body sizes is needed. This paper presents detailed anatomical data in tables and graphs that are used to design such size-adjustable phantoms representing a range of adult individuals in terms of the body height, body weight and internal organ volume/mass. Two different sets of information are used to derive the phantom sets: (1) individual internal organ size and volume/mass distribution data derived from the recommendations of the ICRP in Publications 23 and 89 and (2) whole-body height and weight percentile data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2002). The NHANES height and weight data for 19 year old males and females are used to estimate the distributions of individuals' size, which is unknown, that corresponds to the ICRP organ and tissue distributions. This paper then demonstrates the usage of these anthropometric data in the development of deformable anatomical phantoms. A pair of phantoms—modeled entirely in mesh surfaces—of the adult male and female, RPI-adult male (AM) and RPI-adult female (AF) are used as the base for size-adjustable phantoms. To create percentile-specific phantoms from these two base phantoms, organ surface boundaries are carefully altered according to the tabulated anthropometric data. Software algorithms are developed to automatically match the organ volumes and masses with desired values. Finally, these mesh-based, percentile-specific phantoms are converted into voxel-based phantoms for Monte

Does source population size affect performance in new environments?

PubMed Central

Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

2014-01-01

Small populations are predicted to perform poorly relative to large populations when experiencing environmental change. To explore this prediction in nature, data from reciprocal transplant, common garden, and translocation studies were compared meta-analytically. We contrasted changes in performance resulting from transplantation to new environments among individuals originating from different sized source populations from plants and salmonids. We then evaluated the effect of source population size on performance in natural common garden environments and the relationship between population size and habitat quality. In ‘home-away’ contrasts, large populations exhibited reduced performance in new environments. In common gardens, the effect of source population size on performance was inconsistent across life-history stages (LHS) and environments. When transplanted to the same set of new environments, small populations either performed equally well or better than large populations, depending on life stage. Conversely, large populations outperformed small populations within native environments, but only at later life stages. Population size was not associated with habitat quality. Several factors might explain the negative association between source population size and performance in new environments: (i) stronger local adaptation in large populations and antagonistic pleiotropy, (ii) the maintenance of genetic variation in small populations, and (iii) potential environmental differences between large and small populations. PMID:25469166

Ochre star mortality during the 2014 wasting disease epizootic: role of population size structure and temperature.

PubMed

Eisenlord, Morgan E; Groner, Maya L; Yoshioka, Reyn M; Elliott, Joel; Maynard, Jeffrey; Fradkin, Steven; Turner, Margaret; Pyne, Katie; Rivlin, Natalie; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Harvell, C Drew

2016-03-05

Over 20 species of asteroids were devastated by a sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, linked to a densovirus, from Mexico to Alaska in 2013 and 2014. For Pisaster ochraceus from the San Juan Islands, South Puget Sound and Washington outer coast, time-series monitoring showed rapid disease spread, high mortality rates in 2014, and continuing levels of wasting in the survivors in 2015. Peak prevalence of disease at 16 sites ranged to 100%, with an overall mean of 61%. Analysis of longitudinal data showed disease risk was correlated with both size and temperature and resulted in shifts in population size structure; adult populations fell to one quarter of pre-outbreak abundances. In laboratory experiments, time between development of disease signs and death was influenced by temperature in adults but not juveniles and adult mortality was 18% higher in the 19 °C treatment compared to the lower temperature treatments. While larger ochre stars developed disease signs sooner than juveniles, diseased juveniles died more quickly than diseased adults. Unusual 2-3 °C warm temperature anomalies were coincident with the summer 2014 mortalities. We suggest these warm waters could have increased the disease progression and mortality rates of SSWD in Washington State. © 2016 The Authors.

Ochre star mortality during the 2014 wasting disease epizootic: role of population size structure and temperature

PubMed Central

Eisenlord, Morgan E.; Yoshioka, Reyn M.; Elliott, Joel; Maynard, Jeffrey; Fradkin, Steven; Turner, Margaret; Pyne, Katie; Rivlin, Natalie; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Harvell, C. Drew

2016-01-01

Over 20 species of asteroids were devastated by a sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, linked to a densovirus, from Mexico to Alaska in 2013 and 2014. For Pisaster ochraceus from the San Juan Islands, South Puget Sound and Washington outer coast, time-series monitoring showed rapid disease spread, high mortality rates in 2014, and continuing levels of wasting in the survivors in 2015. Peak prevalence of disease at 16 sites ranged to 100%, with an overall mean of 61%. Analysis of longitudinal data showed disease risk was correlated with both size and temperature and resulted in shifts in population size structure; adult populations fell to one quarter of pre-outbreak abundances. In laboratory experiments, time between development of disease signs and death was influenced by temperature in adults but not juveniles and adult mortality was 18% higher in the 19°C treatment compared to the lower temperature treatments. While larger ochre stars developed disease signs sooner than juveniles, diseased juveniles died more quickly than diseased adults. Unusual 2–3°C warm temperature anomalies were coincident with the summer 2014 mortalities. We suggest these warm waters could have increased the disease progression and mortality rates of SSWD in Washington State. PMID:26880844

Place matters: A longitudinal analysis measuring the association between neighbourhood walkability and walking by age group and population center size in Canada

PubMed Central

Steinmetz-Wood, Madeleine; Kestens, Yan

2017-01-01

This study examined the influence of walkability on walking behaviour and assessed whether associations varied according to life-stage and population center (PC) size. Walkability scores were obtained for the six-digit postal codes of residential neighbourhoods of 11,200 Canadians, who participated in biennial assessments of the National Population Health Survey from 1994 to 2010. Participants were stratified by age-group. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to estimate the influence of cumulative exposure to neighborhood walkability on utilitarian and exercise walking by PC size and life-stage. Associations of neighbourhood walkability with utilitarian and exercise walking varied according to age-group and PC size. Exposure to high walkable neighborhoods was associated with utilitarian walking in younger and older adults in all PC sizes, except for older adults living in a medium PC. Living in a highly walkable neighborhood in a large PC was associated with walking for exercise in younger (OR: 1.42; 95%CI: 1.20–1.67) and older adults (OR: 2.09; 95%CI: 1.51–2.89). Living in highly walkable neighbourhood in a medium PC was associated with walking for exercise in older adults (OR: 1.62; 95%CI: 1.15–2.29). These results emphasize the need to consider the size and nature of every community, and the age-group of a population when implementing strategies to promote walking. PMID:29261706

Reliability of Different Mark-Recapture Methods for Population Size Estimation Tested against Reference Population Sizes Constructed from Field Data

PubMed Central

Grimm, Annegret; Gruber, Bernd; Henle, Klaus

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK). If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2). Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to evaluate the

Relationships Between Body Size Satisfaction and Weight Control Practices Among US Adults

PubMed Central

Millstein, Rachel A.; Carlson, Susan A.; Fulton, Janet E.; Galuska, Deborah A.; Zhang, Jian; Blanck, Heidi M.; Ainsworth, Barbara E.

2008-01-01

Context Few studies of US adults have specifically examined body size satisfaction Objectives Describe correlates of body size satisfaction and examine whether satisfaction was associated with trying to lose weight or specific weight control practices among US adults using a national sample of women and men. Design, Setting & Participants The National Physical Activity and Weight Loss Survey (NPAWLS) was a population-based, cross-sectional telephone survey of US adults (n = 9740). Main Outcome Measures Participants reported their weight, height, body size satisfaction, and weight loss practices. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for each dependent variable. Results Among women and men, higher body mass index (BMI) was significantly associated with body size dissatisfaction. Dissatisfaction, compared with being very satisfied, was positively associated with trying to lose weight among women and men. This association was modified by BMI for women (OR normal weight = 19.69, overweight = 8.79, obese = 4.05; P < .01 for interaction) but not men (OR normal weight = 8.72, overweight = 10.50, obese = 7.86; P = 0.93 for interaction). Compared with women who were very satisfied, dissatisfied women used diet more (OR = 2.03), but not physical activity/exercise (OR = 0.55) or both strategies (OR = 0.63), to try to lose weight. Men who were somewhat satisfied, compared with those who were very satisfied, were more likely to use physical activity/exercise (OR = 1.64) and both diet and physical activity/exercise (OR = 1.54) to try to lose weight. Conclusion These findings highlight the sex differences in body size satisfaction, actions taken to try to lose weight, and the importance of considering body size satisfaction when designing weight-management programs. PMID:18596944

Small body size in an insect shifts development, prior to adult eclosion, towards early reproduction

PubMed Central

Thorne, Ashley D; Pexton, John J; Dytham, Calvin; Mayhew, Peter J

2006-01-01

Life-history theory has suggested that individual body size can strongly affect the allocation of resources to reproduction and away from other traits such as survival. In many insects, adults eclose with a proportion of their potential lifetime egg production that is already mature (the ovigeny index). We establish for the solitary parasitoid wasp Aphaereta genevensis that the ovigeny index decreases with adult body size, despite both initial egg load and potential lifetime fecundity increasing with body size. This outcome is predicted by adaptive models and is the first unequivocal intraspecific demonstration. Evidence suggests that a high ovigeny index carries a cost of reduced longevity in insects. Our results therefore contribute to the emerging evidence that small body size can favour a developmental shift in juveniles that favours early reproduction, but which has adverse late-life consequences. These findings are likely to have important implications for developmental biologists and population biologists. PMID:16600887

A general model for the scaling of offspring size and adult size.

PubMed

Falster, Daniel S; Moles, Angela T; Westoby, Mark

2008-09-01

Understanding evolutionary coordination among different life-history traits is a key challenge for ecology and evolution. Here we develop a general quantitative model predicting how offspring size should scale with adult size by combining a simple model for life-history evolution with a frequency-dependent survivorship model. The key innovation is that larger offspring are afforded three different advantages during ontogeny: higher survivorship per time, a shortened juvenile phase, and advantage during size-competitive growth. In this model, it turns out that size-asymmetric advantage during competition is the factor driving evolution toward larger offspring sizes. For simplified and limiting cases, the model is shown to produce the same predictions as the previously existing theory on which it is founded. The explicit treatment of different survival advantages has biologically important new effects, mainly through an interaction between total maternal investment in reproduction and the duration of competitive growth. This goes on to explain alternative allometries between log offspring size and log adult size, as observed in mammals (slope = 0.95) and plants (slope = 0.54). Further, it suggests how these differences relate quantitatively to specific biological processes during recruitment. In these ways, the model generalizes across previous theory and provides explanations for some differences between major taxa.

Determination of the optimal sample size for a clinical trial accounting for the population size.

PubMed

Stallard, Nigel; Miller, Frank; Day, Simon; Hee, Siew Wan; Madan, Jason; Zohar, Sarah; Posch, Martin

2017-07-01

The problem of choosing a sample size for a clinical trial is a very common one. In some settings, such as rare diseases or other small populations, the large sample sizes usually associated with the standard frequentist approach may be infeasible, suggesting that the sample size chosen should reflect the size of the population under consideration. Incorporation of the population size is possible in a decision-theoretic approach either explicitly by assuming that the population size is fixed and known, or implicitly through geometric discounting of the gain from future patients reflecting the expected population size. This paper develops such approaches. Building on previous work, an asymptotic expression is derived for the sample size for single and two-arm clinical trials in the general case of a clinical trial with a primary endpoint with a distribution of one parameter exponential family form that optimizes a utility function that quantifies the cost and gain per patient as a continuous function of this parameter. It is shown that as the size of the population, N, or expected size, N∗ in the case of geometric discounting, becomes large, the optimal trial size is O(N1/2) or O(N∗1/2). The sample size obtained from the asymptotic expression is also compared with the exact optimal sample size in examples with responses with Bernoulli and Poisson distributions, showing that the asymptotic approximations can also be reasonable in relatively small sample sizes. © 2016 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Introgression Makes Waves in Inferred Histories of Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Hawks, John

2017-01-01

Human populations have a complex history of introgression and of changing population size. Human genetic variation has been affected by both these processes, so inference of past population size depends upon the pattern of gene flow and introgression among past populations. One remarkable aspect of human population history as inferred from genetics is a consistent "wave" of larger effective population sizes, found in both African and non-African populations, that appears to reflect events prior to the last 100,000 years. I carried out a series of simulations to investigate how introgression and gene flow from genetically divergent ancestral populations affect the inference of ancestral effective population size. Both introgression and gene flow from an extinct, genetically divergent population consistently produce a wave in the history of inferred effective population size. The time and amplitude of the wave reflect the time of origin of the genetically divergent ancestral populations and the strength of introgression or gene flow. These results demonstrate that even small fractions of introgression or gene flow from ancient populations may have visible effects on the inference of effective population size.

A comparative analysis of adult body size and its correlates in acanthocephalan parasites.

PubMed

Poulin, Robert; Wise, Megan; Moore, Janice

2003-07-30

Adult acanthocephalan body sizes vary interspecifically over more than two orders of magnitude; yet, despite its importance for our understanding of the coevolutionary links between hosts and parasites, this variation remains unexplained. Here, we used a comparative analysis to investigate how final adult sizes and relative increments in size following establishment in the definitive host are influenced by three potential determinants of acanthocephalan sizes: initial (cystacanth) size at infection, host body mass, and the thermal regime experienced during growth, i.e. whether the definitive host is an ectotherm or an endotherm. Relative growth from the cystacanth stage to the adult stage ranged from twofold to more than 10,000-fold across acanthocephalan species, averaging just over 100-fold. However, this relative increment in size did not correlate with host mass, and did not differ between acanthocephalan species using ectothermic hosts and those growing in endothermic hosts. In contrast, final acanthocephalan adult sizes correlated positively with host mass, and after correction for host mass, final adult sizes were higher in species parasitising endotherms than in those found in ectotherms. The relationship between host mass and acanthocephalan adult size practically disappears, however, once phylogenetic influences are taken into account. Positive relationships between adult acanthocephalan size, cystacanth size and egg size indicate that a given relative size is a feature of an acanthocephalan species at all stages of its life cycle. These relationships also suggest that adult size is to some extent determined by cystacanth size, and that the characteristics of the definitive host are not the sole determinants of parasite life history traits.

Development of an online database of typical food portion sizes in Irish population groups.

PubMed

Lyons, Jacqueline; Walton, Janette; Flynn, Albert

2013-01-01

The Irish Food Portion Sizes Database (available at www.iuna.net) describes typical portion weights for an extensive range of foods and beverages for Irish children, adolescents and adults. The present paper describes the methodologies used to develop the database and some key characteristics of the portion weight data contained therein. The data are derived from three large, cross-sectional food consumption surveys carried out in Ireland over the last decade: the National Children's Food Survey (2003-2004), National Teens' Food Survey (2005-2006) and National Adult Nutrition Survey (2008-2010). Median, 25th and 75th percentile portion weights are described for a total of 545 items across the three survey groups, split by age group or sex as appropriate. The typical (median) portion weights reported for adolescents and adults are similar for many foods, while those reported for children are notably smaller. Adolescent and adult males generally consume larger portions than their female counterparts, though similar portion weights may be consumed where foods are packaged in unit amounts (for example, pots of yoghurt). The inclusion of energy under-reporters makes little difference to the estimation of typical portion weights in adults. The data have wide-ranging applications in dietary assessment and food labelling, and will serve as a useful reference against which to compare future portion size data from the Irish population. The present paper provides a useful context for researchers and others wishing to use the Irish Food Portion Sizes Database, and may guide researchers in other countries in establishing similar databases of their own.

How can mortality increase population size? A test of two mechanistic hypotheses.

PubMed

McIntire, Kristina M; Juliano, Steven A

2018-05-03

Overcompensation occurs when added mortality increases survival to the next life-cycle stage. Overcompensation can contribute to the Hydra Effect, wherein added mortality increases equilibrium population size. One hypothesis for overcompensation is that added mortality eases density-dependence, increasing survival to adulthood ("temporal separation of mortality and density dependence"). Mortality early in the life cycle is therefore predicted to cause overcompensation, whereas mortality later in the life cycle is not. Another hypothesis for overcompensation is that threat of mortality (e.g., from predation) causes behavioral changes that reduce overexploitation of resources, allowing resource recovery, and increasing production of adults ("prudent resource exploitation"). Behaviorally active predation cues alone are therefore predicted to cause overcompensation. We tested these predictions in two experiments with larvae of two species of Aedes. As predicted, early mortality yielded greater production of adults, and of adult females, and greater estimated rate of population increase than did later mortality. Addition of water-borne predation cues usually reduced browsing on surfaces in late-stage larvae, but contrary to prediction, resulted in neither significantly greater production of adult mosquitoes nor significantly greater estimated rate of increase. Thus we have strong evidence that timing of mortality contributes to overcompensation and the Hydra effect in mosquitoes. Evidence that predation cues alone can result in overcompensation via prudent resource exploitation is lacking. We expect the overcompensation in response to early mortality will be common in organisms with complex life cycles, density dependence among juveniles, and developmental control of populations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Optimal population size and endogenous growth.

PubMed

Palivos, T; Yip, C K

1993-01-01

"Many applications in economics require the selection of an objective function which enables the comparison of allocations involving different population sizes. The two most commonly used criteria are the Benthamite and the Millian welfare functions, also known as classical and average utilitarianism, respectively. The former maximizes total utility of the society and thus represents individuals, while the latter maximizes average utility and so represents generations. Edgeworth (1925) was the first to conjecture, that the Benthamite principle leads to a larger population size and a lower standard of living.... The purpose of this paper is to examine Edgeworth's conjecture in an endogenous growth framework in which there are interactions between output and population growth rates. It is shown that, under conditions that ensure an optimum, the Benthamite criterion leads to smaller population and higher output growth rates than the Millian." excerpt

On the absence of a correlation between population size and 'toolkit size' in ethnographic hunter-gatherers.

PubMed

Aoki, Kenichi

2018-04-05

In apparent contradiction to the theoretically predicted effect of population size on the quality/quantity of material culture, statistical analyses on ethnographic hunter-gatherers have shown an absence of correlation between population size and toolkit size. This has sparked a heated, if sometimes tangential, debate as to the usefulness of the theoretical models and as to what modes of cultural transmission humans are capable of and hunter-gatherers rely on. I review the directly relevant theoretical literature and argue that much of the confusion is caused by a mismatch between the theoretical variable and the empirical observable. I then confirm that a model incorporating the appropriate variable does predict a positive association between population size and toolkit size for random oblique, vertical, best-of- K , conformist, anticonformist, success bias and one-to-many cultural transmission, with the caveat that for all populations sampled, the population size has remained constant and toolkit size has reached the equilibrium for this population size. Finally, I suggest three theoretical scenarios, two of them involving variable population size, that would attenuate or eliminate this association and hence help to explain the empirical absence of correlation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2001-01-01

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Adult height, nutrition, and population health

PubMed Central

Perkins, Jessica M.; Subramanian, S.V.; Davey Smith, George

2016-01-01

In this review, the potential causes and consequences of adult height, a measure of cumulative net nutrition, in modern populations are summarized. The mechanisms linking adult height and health are examined, with a focus on the role of potential confounders. Evidence across studies indicates that short adult height (reflecting growth retardation) in low- and middle-income countries is driven by environmental conditions, especially net nutrition during early years. Some of the associations of height with health and social outcomes potentially reflect the association between these environmental factors and such outcomes. These conditions are manifested in the substantial differences in adult height that exist between and within countries and over time. This review suggests that adult height is a useful marker of variation in cumulative net nutrition, biological deprivation, and standard of living between and within populations and should be routinely measured. Linkages between adult height and health, within and across generations, suggest that adult height may be a potential tool for monitoring health conditions and that programs focused on offspring outcomes may consider maternal height as a potentially important influence. PMID:26928678

Body shape by 3-D photonic scanning in Thai and UK adults: comparison of national sizing surveys.

PubMed

Wells, J C K; Treleaven, P; Charoensiriwath, S

2012-01-01

Body mass index (BMI) cut-offs associated with increased risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease differ between European and Asian populations, and among Asian populations. Within-population and ethnic variability in body shape has likewise been linked with variability in cardiovascular risk in western settings. To explore differences between Thai and White UK adults in body shape and its associations with height, age and BMI. Data on weight and body shape by 3-D photonic scanning from National Sizing Surveys of UK (3542 men, 4130 women) and Thai (5889 men, 6499 women) adults aged 16-90 years, using a common protocol and methodology, were analysed. Thai adults in both sexes had significantly smaller body girths than UK adults after adjusting for age and height. Matching for BMI, and adjusting for height and age, Thais in both sexes tended to have similar or greater limb girths, but significantly smaller torso girths (especially waist and hip) than UK individuals. These results were replicated within narrow BMI bands at ∼20 and ∼25 kg m(-2). Shape-age associations also differed between the populations. Young Thai adults have a significantly slighter physique than White UK adults, with a less central distribution of body weight. However these differences reduce with age, especially in males. The 3-D photonic scanning provides detailed digital anthropometric data capable of monitoring between- and within-individual shape variability. The technology merits further application to investigate whether variability in body shape is more sensitive to metabolic risk than BMI within and between-populations.

Effective Size of Nonrandom Mating Populations

PubMed Central

Caballero, A.; Hill, W. G.

1992-01-01

Nonrandom mating whereby parents are related is expected to cause a reduction in effective population size because their gene frequencies are correlated and this will increase the genetic drift. The published equation for the variance effective size, N(e), which includes the possibility of nonrandom mating, does not take into account such a correlation, however. Further, previous equations to predict effective sizes in populations with partial sib mating are shown to be different, but also incorrect. In this paper, a corrected form of these equations is derived and checked by stochastic simulation. For the case of stable census number, N, and equal progeny distributions for each sex, the equation is & where S(k)(2) is the variance of family size and α is the departure from Hardy-Weinberg proportions. For a Poisson distribution of family size (S(k)(2) = 2), it reduces to N(e) = N/(1 + α), as when inbreeding is due to selfing. When nonrandom mating occurs because there is a specified system of partial inbreeding every generation, α can be substituted by Wright's F(IS) statistic, to give the effective size as a function of the proportion of inbred mates. PMID:1582565

Expected effects of reducing Oestrus ovis L. mature larval weight on adult populations.

PubMed

Cepeda-Palacios, R; Frugère, S; Dorchies, P

2000-06-27

In order to estimate the effects of eventual reductions in larval weight (LW) of Oestrus ovis L. as a measure of control, the correlation between mature LW and adult fly length (AL) in laboratory specimens (n=150) was calculated. The regression equation AL=5.62+10.65LW (r(2)=0.76) was obtained. This equation was then applied to estimate the mature LW of wild larvipositing females (n=51) to predict the minimum mature LW at which fly viability would be compromised. The critical weight, 0.28 g (standard error limits 0. 235, 0.323), was obtained from a small fly measuring 8.6mm in length. Data from 383 mature third instars were used to estimate, by statistical analysis, the expected effects of decreasing the mature LW on subsequent fly population size. A considerable mean reduction (38%) in adult populations might be achieved by a 40% reduction of mature LW, but this eventual reduction may be temporary due to the high reproductive rate in this species. Sex differences in mature LW and fly size are also reported.

Group selections among laboratory populations of Tribolium.

PubMed

Wade, M J

1976-12-01

Selection at the population level or group selection is defined as genetic change that is brought about or maintained by the differential extinction and/or proliferation of populations. Group selection for both increased and decreased adult population size was carried out among laboratory populations of Tribolium castaneum at 37-day intervals. The effect of individual selection within populations on adult population size was evaluated in an additional control series of populations. The response in the group selection treatments occurred rapidly, within three or four generations, and was large in magnitude, at times differing from the controls by over 200%. This response to selection at the populational level occurred despite strong individual selection which caused a decline in the mean size of the control populations from over 200 adults to near 50 adults in nine 37-day intervals. "Assay" experiments indicated that selective changes in fecundity, developmental time, body weight, and cannibalism rates were responsible in part for the observed treatment differences in adult population size. These findings have implications in terms of speciation in organisms whose range is composed of many partially isolated local populations.

Strong fluctuations in aboveground population size do not limit genetic diversity in populations of an endangered biennial species.

PubMed

Münzbergová, Zuzana; Šurinová, Maria; Husáková, Iveta; Brabec, Jiří

2018-04-26

Assessing genetic diversity within populations of rare species and understanding its determinants are crucial for effective species protection. While a lot is known about the relationships between genetic diversity, fitness, and current population size, very few studies explored the effects of past population size. Knowledge of past population size may, however, improve our ability to predict future population fates. We studied Gentianella praecox subsp. bohemica, a biennial species with extensive seed bank. We tested the effect of current, past minimal and maximal population size, and harmonic mean of population sizes within the last 15 years on genetic diversity and fitness. Maximum population size over the last 15 years was the best predictor of expected heterozygosity of the populations and was significantly related to current population size and management. Plant fitness was significantly related to current as well as maximum population size and expected heterozygosity. The results suggested that information on past population size may improve our understanding of contemporary genetic diversity across populations. They demonstrated that despite the strong fluctuations in population size, large reductions in population size do not result in immediate loss of genetic diversity and reduction of fitness within the populations. This is likely due to the seed bank of the species serving as reservoir of the genetic diversity of the populations. From a conservation point of view, this suggests that the restoration of small populations of short-lived species with permanent seed bank is possible as these populations may still be genetically diverse.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

PubMed

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolution of increased adult longevity in Drosophila melanogaster populations selected for adaptation to larval crowding.

PubMed

Shenoi, V N; Ali, S Z; Prasad, N G

2016-02-01

In holometabolous animals such as Drosophila melanogaster, larval crowding can affect a wide range of larval and adult traits. Adults emerging from high larval density cultures have smaller body size and increased mean life span compared to flies emerging from low larval density cultures. Therefore, adaptation to larval crowding could potentially affect adult longevity as a correlated response. We addressed this issue by studying a set of large, outbred populations of D. melanogaster, experimentally evolved for adaptation to larval crowding for 83 generations. We assayed longevity of adult flies from both selected (MCUs) and control populations (MBs) after growing them at different larval densities. We found that MCUs have evolved increased mean longevity compared to MBs at all larval densities. The interaction between selection regime and larval density was not significant, indicating that the density dependence of mean longevity had not evolved in the MCU populations. The increase in longevity in MCUs can be partially attributed to their lower rates of ageing. It is also noteworthy that reaction norm of dry body weight, a trait probably under direct selection in our populations, has indeed evolved in MCU populations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of the evolution of adult longevity as a correlated response of adaptation to larval crowding. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Potential environmental influences on variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism among Arizona populations of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amarello, Melissa; Nowak, Erica M.; Taylor, Emily N.; Schuett, Gordon W.; Repp, Roger A.; Rosen, Philip C.; Hardy, David L.

2010-01-01

Differences in resource availability and quality along environmental gradients are important influences contributing to intraspecific variation in body size, which influences numerous life-history traits. Here, we examined variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in relation to temperature, seasonality, and precipitation among 10 populations located throughout Arizona of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox). Specifically, in our analyses we addressed the following questions: (i) Are adult males larger in cooler, wetter areas? (ii) Does female body size respond differently to environmental variation? (iii) Is seasonality a better predictor of body size variation? (iv) Is SSD positively correlated with increased resources? We demonstrate that male and female C. atrox are larger in body size in cooler (i.e., lower average annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperature) and wetter areas (i.e., higher average annual precipitation, more variable precipitation, and available surface water). Although SSD in C. atrox appeared to be more pronounced in cooler, wetter areas, this relationship did not achieve statistical significance.

Seasonal variation in environmental DNA in relation to population size and environmental factors

PubMed Central

Buxton, Andrew S.; Groombridge, Jim J.; Zakaria, Nurulhuda B.; Griffiths, Richard A.

2017-01-01

Analysing DNA that organisms release into the environment (environmental DNA, or eDNA) has enormous potential for assessing rare and cryptic species. At present the method is only reliably used to assess the presence-absence of species in natural environments, as seasonal influences on eDNA in relation to presence, abundance, life stages and seasonal behaviours are poorly understood. A naturally colonised, replicated pond system was used to show how seasonal changes in eDNA were influenced by abundance of adults and larvae of great crested newts (Triturus cristatus). Peaks in eDNA were observed in early June when adult breeding was coming to an end, and between mid-July and mid-August corresponding to a peak in newt larval abundance. Changes in adult body condition associated with reproduction also influenced eDNA concentrations, as did temperature (but not rainfall or UV). eDNA concentration fell rapidly as larvae metamorphosed and left the ponds. eDNA concentration may therefore reflect relative abundance in different ponds, although environmental factors can affect the concentrations observed. Nevertheless, eDNA surveys may still represent an improvement over unadjusted counts which are widely used in population assessments but have unreliable relationships with population size. PMID:28393885

Public goods games in populations with fluctuating size.

PubMed

McAvoy, Alex; Fraiman, Nicolas; Hauert, Christoph; Wakeley, John; Nowak, Martin A

2018-05-01

Many mathematical frameworks of evolutionary game dynamics assume that the total population size is constant and that selection affects only the relative frequency of strategies. Here, we consider evolutionary game dynamics in an extended Wright-Fisher process with variable population size. In such a scenario, it is possible that the entire population becomes extinct. Survival of the population may depend on which strategy prevails in the game dynamics. Studying cooperative dilemmas, it is a natural feature of such a model that cooperators enable survival, while defectors drive extinction. Although defectors are favored for any mixed population, random drift could lead to their elimination and the resulting pure-cooperator population could survive. On the other hand, if the defectors remain, then the population will quickly go extinct because the frequency of cooperators steadily declines and defectors alone cannot survive. In a mutation-selection model, we find that (i) a steady supply of cooperators can enable long-term population survival, provided selection is sufficiently strong, and (ii) selection can increase the abundance of cooperators but reduce their relative frequency. Thus, evolutionary game dynamics in populations with variable size generate a multifaceted notion of what constitutes a trait's long-term success. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size

PubMed Central

Ragsdale, Alexandria K.; McCoy, Earl D.; Mushinsky, Henry R.

2016-01-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. PMID:26976940

Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

PubMed

Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

2008-01-01

Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Landscape Simplification Constrains Adult Size in a Native Ground-Nesting Bee.

PubMed

Renauld, Miles; Hutchinson, Alena; Loeb, Gregory; Poveda, Katja; Connelly, Heather

2016-01-01

Bees provide critical pollination services to 87% of angiosperm plants; however, the reliability of these services may become threatened as bee populations decline. Agricultural intensification, resulting in the simplification of environments at the landscape scale, greatly changes the quality and quantity of resources available for female bees to provision their offspring. These changes may alter or constrain the tradeoffs in maternal investment allocation between offspring size, number and sex required to maximize fitness. Here we investigate the relationship between landscape scale agricultural intensification and the size and number of individuals within a wild ground nesting bee species, Andrena nasonii. We show that agricultural intensification at the landscape scale was associated with a reduction in the average size of field collected A. nasonii adults in highly agricultural landscapes but not with the number of individuals collected. Small females carried significantly smaller (40%) pollen loads than large females, which is likely to have consequences for subsequent offspring production and fitness. Thus, landscape simplification is likely to constrain allocation of resources to offspring through a reduction in the overall quantity, quality and distribution of resources.

Naturalization of plant populations: the role of cultivation and population size and density.

PubMed

Minton, Mark S; Mack, Richard N

2010-10-01

Field experimentation is required to assess the effects of environmental stochasticity on small immigrant plant populations-a widely understood but largely unexplored aspect of predicting any species' likelihood of naturalization and potential invasion. Cultivation can mitigate this stochasticity, although the outcome for a population under cultivation nevertheless varies enormously from extinction to persistence. Using factorial experiments, we investigated the effects of population size, density, and cultivation (irrigation) on the fate of founder populations for four alien species with different life history characteristics (Echinochloa frumentacea, Fagopyrum esculentum, Helianthus annuus, and Trifolium incarnatum) in eastern Washington, USA. The fate of founder populations was highly variable within and among the 3 years of experimentation and illustrates the often precarious environment encountered by plant immigrants. Larger founder populations produced more seeds (P < 0.001); the role of founder population size, however, differed among years. Irrigation resulted in higher percent survival (P < 0.001) and correspondingly larger net reproductive rate (R(0); P < 0.001). But the minimum level of irrigation for establishment, R(0) > 1, differed among years and species. Sowing density did not affect the likelihood of establishment for any species. Our results underscore the importance of environmental stochasticity in determining the fate of founder populations and the potential of cultivation and large population size in countering the long odds against naturalization. Any implementation of often proposed post-immigration field trials to assess the risk of an alien species becoming naturalized, a requisite step toward invasion, will need to assess different sizes of founder populations and the extent and character of cultivation (intentional or unintentional) that the immigrants might receive.

Effective size of a wild salmonid population is greatly reduced by hatchery supplementation

PubMed Central

Christie, M R; Marine, M L; French, R A; Waples, R S; Blouin, M S

2012-01-01

Many declining and commercially important populations are supplemented with captive-born individuals that are intentionally released into the wild. These supplementation programs often create large numbers of offspring from relatively few breeding adults, which can have substantial population-level effects. We examined the genetic effects of supplementation on a wild population of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from the Hood River, Oregon, by matching 12 run-years of hatchery steelhead back to their broodstock parents. We show that the effective number of breeders producing the hatchery fish (broodstock parents; Nb) was quite small (harmonic mean Nb=25 fish per brood-year vs 373 for wild fish), and was exacerbated by a high variance in broodstock reproductive success among individuals within years. The low Nb caused hatchery fish to have decreased allelic richness, increased average relatedness, more loci in linkage disequilibrium and substantial levels of genetic drift in comparison with their wild-born counterparts. We also documented a substantial Ryman–Laikre effect whereby the additional hatchery fish doubled the total number of adult fish on the spawning grounds each year, but cut the effective population size of the total population (wild and hatchery fish combined) by nearly two-thirds. We further demonstrate that the Ryman–Laikre effect is most severe in this population when (1) >10% of fish allowed onto spawning grounds are from hatcheries and (2) the hatchery fish have high reproductive success in the wild. These results emphasize the trade-offs that arise when supplementation programs attempt to balance disparate goals (increasing production while maintaining genetic diversity and fitness). PMID:22805657

Brain size and limits to adult neurogenesis.

PubMed

Paredes, Mercedes F; Sorrells, Shawn F; Garcia-Verdugo, Jose M; Alvarez-Buylla, Arturo

2016-02-15

The walls of the cerebral ventricles in the developing embryo harbor the primary neural stem cells from which most neurons and glia derive. In many vertebrates, neurogenesis continues postnatally and into adulthood in this region. Adult neurogenesis at the ventricle has been most extensively studied in organisms with small brains, such as reptiles, birds, and rodents. In reptiles and birds, these progenitor cells give rise to young neurons that migrate into many regions of the forebrain. Neurogenesis in adult rodents is also relatively widespread along the lateral ventricles, but migration is largely restricted to the rostral migratory stream into the olfactory bulb. Recent work indicates that the wall of the lateral ventricle is highly regionalized, with progenitor cells giving rise to different types of neurons depending on their location. In species with larger brains, young neurons born in these spatially specified domains become dramatically separated from potential final destinations. Here we hypothesize that the increase in size and topographical complexity (e.g., intervening white matter tracts) in larger brains may severely limit the long-term contribution of new neurons born close to, or in, the ventricular wall. We compare the process of adult neuronal birth, migration, and integration across species with different brain sizes, and discuss how early regional specification of progenitor cells may interact with brain size and affect where and when new neurons are added. © 2015 The Authors The Journal of Comparative Neurology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Depression in an older adult rural population in India.

PubMed

Sinha, Sati P; Shrivastava, Saurabh R; Ramasamy, Jegadeesh

2013-10-01

With a rapidly aging society, geriatric mental health is emerging as an important public health concern. According to the WHO, prevalence of depression in adults aged ≥60 years in developed and developing countries was 0.5 million and 4.8 million respectively in 2004. In India, increased life expectancy led to a rise in the older adult population between 2001 and 2011, expected to reach 324 million by 2050. To estimate the prevalence of depression and assess association between sociodemographic parameters and depression among older adults in a rural Indian community. A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted in February and March 2012 in the rural village of Sembakkam, Kancheepuram District in the state of Tamil Nadu, India; the village has a population of 5948, 3.1% of whom are aged ≥60 years. Universal sampling technique was employed, in which every household in the community was visited and all elderly persons were selected. After obtaining written informed consent (a thumbprint was taken if the person was illiterate), participants were assessed face to face for depression using the Short Form Geriatric Depression Scale. The inclusion criterion was a score >24 on the mini-mental state examination. Final sample size was 103. Study variables included sociodemographic parameters such as age, sex, education, occupation, socioeconomic status, and marital status. Data entry and statistical analysis used SPSS version 17. Of 103 respondents interviewed, 73 (70.9%) were aged 60-69 years and 58 (56.3%) were male. Forty-four (42.7%) individuals (17 males, 27 females) were found to be depressed; 23 (22.3%) with mild depression, 14 (13.6%) moderate depression and 7 (6.8%) severe depression. Female sex and widowhood were significantly associated with depression. Depression, particularly mild depression, is common in this rural population of older adults, particularly among women and widowed elderly. These study findings can help program managers implement a more

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

2016-07-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. © The American Genetic Association. 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Size selection from fishways and potential evolutionary responses in a threatened Atlantic salmon population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maynard, George A.; Kinnison, M.T.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

The evolutionary effects of harvest on wild fish populations have been documented around the world; however, sublethal selective pressures can also cause evolutionary changes in phenotypes. For migratory fishes, passage facilities may represent instances of nonlethal selective pressure. Our analysis of 6 years of passage data suggests that certain fish passage facilities on the Penobscot River have been exerting selective pressure against large-bodied, anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). At the second and third dams in the river, a 91-cm salmon was 21%–27% and 12%–16% less likely to pass than a 45-cm salmon, respectively. Fish size positively influences egg survival and number and is a heritable trait. Therefore, in a wild-reproducing population, exclusion of large fish from spawning areas may have population-level impacts. In the Penobscot River, most returning adults derive from a hatchery program that collects its broodstock after passing the first dam in the river. Analysis of fork lengths of salmon returning to the Penobscot River from 1978 to 2012 provided mixed support for evolution of size at maturity in different age classes in a pattern that may be expected from interactions with conservation hatchery operations. Additionally, slow-maturing and iteroparous individuals that represent the largest salmon size classes were essentially lost from the population during that time, and Penobscot River fish have shorter fork lengths at maturity than Atlantic salmon in undammed systems.

Relationships between motor unit size and recruitment threshold in older adults: implications for size principle.

PubMed

Fling, Brett W; Knight, Christopher A; Kamen, Gary

2009-08-01

As a part of the aging process, motor unit reorganization occurs in which small motoneurons reinnervate predominantly fast-twitch muscle fibers that have lost their innervation. We examined the relationship between motor unit size and the threshold force for recruitment in two muscles to determine whether older individuals might develop an alternative pattern of motor unit activation. Young and older adults performed isometric contractions ranging from 0 to 50% of maximal voluntary contraction in both the first dorsal interosseous (FDI) and tibialis anterior (TA) muscles. Muscle fiber action potentials were recorded with an intramuscular needle electrode and motor unit size was computed using spike-triggered averaging of the global EMG signal (macro EMG), which was also obtained from the intramuscular needle electrode. As expected, older individuals exhibited larger motor units than young subjects in both the FDI and the TA. However, moderately strong correlations were obtained for the macro EMG amplitude versus recruitment threshold relationship in both the young and older adults within both muscles, suggesting that the size principle of motor unit recruitment seems to be preserved in older adults.

Effective population sizes of a major vector of human diseases, Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Saarman, Norah P; Gloria-Soria, Andrea; Anderson, Eric C; Evans, Benjamin R; Pless, Evlyn; Cosme, Luciano V; Gonzalez-Acosta, Cassandra; Kamgang, Basile; Wesson, Dawn M; Powell, Jeffrey R

2017-12-01

The effective population size ( N e ) is a fundamental parameter in population genetics that determines the relative strength of selection and random genetic drift, the effect of migration, levels of inbreeding, and linkage disequilibrium. In many cases where it has been estimated in animals, N e is on the order of 10%-20% of the census size. In this study, we use 12 microsatellite markers and 14,888 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to empirically estimate N e in Aedes aegypti , the major vector of yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We used the method of temporal sampling to estimate N e on a global dataset made up of 46 samples of Ae. aegypti that included multiple time points from 17 widely distributed geographic localities. Our N e estimates for Ae. aegypti fell within a broad range (~25-3,000) and averaged between 400 and 600 across all localities and time points sampled. Adult census size (N c ) estimates for this species range between one and five thousand, so the N e / N c ratio is about the same as for most animals. These N e values are lower than estimates available for other insects and have important implications for the design of genetic control strategies to reduce the impact of this species of mosquito on human health.

Size matters: How population size influences genotype–phenotype association studies in anonymized data

PubMed Central

Denny, Joshua C.; Haines, Jonathan L.; Roden, Dan M.; Malin, Bradley A.

2014-01-01

Objective Electronic medical records (EMRs) data is increasingly incorporated into genome-phenome association studies. Investigators hope to share data, but there are concerns it may be “re-identified” through the exploitation of various features, such as combinations of standardized clinical codes. Formal anonymization algorithms (e.g., k-anonymization) can prevent such violations, but prior studies suggest that the size of the population available for anonymization may influence the utility of the resulting data. We systematically investigate this issue using a large-scale biorepository and EMR system through which we evaluate the ability of researchers to learn from anonymized data for genome- phenome association studies under various conditions. Methods We use a k-anonymization strategy to simulate a data protection process (on data sets containing clinical codes) for resources of similar size to those found at nine academic medical institutions within the United States. Following the protection process, we replicate an existing genome-phenome association study and compare the discoveries using the protected data and the original data through the correlation (r2) of the p-values of association significance. Results Our investigation shows that anonymizing an entire dataset with respect to the population from which it is derived yields significantly more utility than small study-specific datasets anonymized unto themselves. When evaluated using the correlation of genome-phenome association strengths on anonymized data versus original data, all nine simulated sites, results from largest-scale anonymizations (population ∼ 100;000) retained better utility to those on smaller sizes (population ∼ 6000—75;000). We observed a general trend of increasing r2 for larger data set sizes: r2 = 0.9481 for small-sized datasets, r2 = 0.9493 for moderately-sized datasets, r2 = 0.9934 for large-sized datasets. Conclusions This research implies that regardless of the

Are heritability and selection related to population size in nature? Meta-analysis and conservation implications.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

2016-06-01

It is widely thought that small populations should have less additive genetic variance and respond less efficiently to natural selection than large populations. Across taxa, we meta-analytically quantified the relationship between adult census population size (N) and additive genetic variance (proxy: h (2)) and found no reduction in h (2) with decreasing N; surveyed populations ranged from four to one million individuals (1735 h (2) estimates, 146 populations, 83 species). In terms of adaptation, ecological conditions may systematically differ between populations of varying N; the magnitude of selection these populations experience may therefore also differ. We thus also meta-analytically tested whether selection changes with N and found little evidence for systematic differences in the strength, direction or form of selection with N across different trait types and taxa (7344 selection estimates, 172 populations, 80 species). Collectively, our results (i) indirectly suggest that genetic drift neither overwhelms selection more in small than in large natural populations, nor weakens adaptive potential/h (2) in small populations, and (ii) imply that natural populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions, without consistently differing habitat quality at small N. However, we caution that the data are currently insufficient to determine whether some small populations may retain adaptive potential definitively. Further study is required into (i) selection and genetic variation in completely isolated populations of known N, under-represented taxonomic groups, and nongeneralist species, (ii) adaptive potential using multidimensional approaches and (iii) the nature of selective pressures for specific traits.

Estimating avian population size using Bowden's estimator

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diefenbach, D.R.

2009-01-01

Avian researchers often uniquely mark birds, and multiple estimators could be used to estimate population size using individually identified birds. However, most estimators of population size require that all sightings of marked birds be uniquely identified, and many assume homogeneous detection probabilities. Bowden's estimator can incorporate sightings of marked birds that are not uniquely identified and relax assumptions required of other estimators. I used computer simulation to evaluate the performance of Bowden's estimator for situations likely to be encountered in bird studies. When the assumptions of the estimator were met, abundance and variance estimates and confidence-interval coverage were accurate. However, precision was poor for small population sizes (N < 50) unless a large percentage of the population was marked (>75%) and multiple (≥8) sighting surveys were conducted. If additional birds are marked after sighting surveys begin, it is important to initially mark a large proportion of the population (pm ≥ 0.5 if N ≤ 100 or pm > 0.1 if N ≥ 250) and minimize sightings in which birds are not uniquely identified; otherwise, most population estimates will be overestimated by >10%. Bowden's estimator can be useful for avian studies because birds can be resighted multiple times during a single survey, not all sightings of marked birds have to uniquely identify individuals, detection probabilities among birds can vary, and the complete study area does not have to be surveyed. I provide computer code for use with pilot data to design mark-resight surveys to meet desired precision for abundance estimates.

Nightmares: Risk Factors Among the Finnish General Adult Population

PubMed Central

Sandman, Nils; Valli, Katja; Kronholm, Erkki; Revonsuo, Antti; Laatikainen, Tiina; Paunio, Tiina

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: To identify risk factors for experiencing nightmares among the Finnish general adult population. The study aimed to both test whether previously reported correlates of frequent nightmares could be reproduced in a large population sample and to explore previously unreported associations. Design: Two independent cross-sectional population surveys of the National FINRISK Study. Setting: Age- and sex-stratified random samples of the Finnish population in 2007 and 2012. Participants: A total of 13,922 participants (6,515 men and 7,407 women) aged 25–74 y. Interventions: N/A. Measurements and results: Nightmare frequency as well as several items related to socioeconomic status, sleep, mental well-being, life satisfaction, alcohol use, medication, and physical well-being were recorded with a questionnaire. In multinomial logistic regression analysis, a depression-related negative attitude toward the self (odds ratio [OR] 1.32 per 1-point increase), insomnia (OR 6.90), and exhaustion and fatigue (OR 6.86) were the strongest risk factors for experiencing frequent nightmares (P < 0.001 for all). Sex, age, a self-reported impaired ability to work, low life satisfaction, the use of antidepressants or hypnotics, and frequent heavy use of alcohol were also strongly associated with frequent nightmares (P < 0.001 for all). Conclusions: Symptoms of depression and insomnia were the strongest predictors of frequent nightmares in this dataset. Additionally, a wide variety of factors related to psychological and physical well-being were associated with nightmare frequency with modest effect sizes. Hence, nightmare frequency appears to have a strong connection with sleep and mood problems, but is also associated with a variety of measures of psychological and physical well-being. Citation: Sandman N, Valli K, Kronholm E, Revonsuo A, Laatikainen T, Paunio T. Nightmares: risk factors among the finnish general adult population. SLEEP 2015;38(4):507–514. PMID:25325474

Four types of interference competition and their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities.

PubMed

Zhang, Lai; Andersen, Ken H; Dieckmann, Ulf; Brännström, Åke

2015-09-07

We investigate how four types of interference competition - which alternatively affect foraging, metabolism, survival, and reproduction - impact the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations. Even though all four types of interference competition reduce population biomass, interference competition at intermediate intensity sometimes significantly increases the abundance of adult individuals and the population׳s reproduction rate. We find that foraging and metabolic interference evolutionarily favor smaller maturation size when interference is weak and larger maturation size when interference is strong. The evolutionary response to survival interference and reproductive interference is always larger maturation size. We also investigate how the four types of interference competition impact the evolutionary dynamics and resultant diversity and trophic structure of size-structured communities. Like other types of trait-mediated competition, all four types of interference competition can induce disruptive selection and thus promote initial diversification. Even though foraging interference and reproductive interference are more potent in promoting initial diversification, they catalyze the formation of diverse communities with complex trophic structure only at high levels of interference intensity. By contrast, survival interference does so already at intermediate levels, while reproductive interference can only support relatively smaller communities with simpler trophic structure. Taken together, our results show how the type and intensity of interference competition jointly affect coexistence patterns in structured population models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins.

PubMed

Eller, Elise; Hawks, John; Relethford, John H

2004-10-01

A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population study of hearing disorders in adults: preliminary communication.

PubMed Central

1981-01-01

The Institute of Hearing Research is embarked upon a study of the prevalence, characteristics and determinants of hearing problems and tinnitus in the adult population of the UK. One of its objectives is to ascertain the size of the problem in terms both of numbers of people affected and the degrees to which they are affected. Such knowledge is highly relevant to any consideration of the services needed for the adult hearing impaired. The overall plan for the study and the results of its pilot study are outlined. In Tier A, a questionnaire on hearing difficulties and tinnitus was sent to 6804 persons living in Cardiff, Glasgow, Nottingham and Southampton. This enabled stratification of respondents by age groups and reported impairments, and thereby permitted appropriate sampling ratios from those strata to be invited to attend the clinics for the Tier B clinical and audiological investigations. Response rates were around 80% at Tier A and 50% at Tier B; domiciliary follow up showed the biases in non-responders and non-attenders to be minimal. About 25% of the sample reported some hearing difficulty, and about 17% reported an experience of tinnitus that was more than transitory or temporary noise-induced. Taking a criterion of over 25 dB hearing level in the better ear, averaged across 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 kHz, a prevalence estimate for the UK population is that 19.9 +/- 4.4% of adults are so affected. About 0.5-1% of adults appear to be severely affected by tinnitus; this amounts to about 200 000 persons in the UK. The scale of the problem has not been fully appreciated before and points to an urgent need to develop further the clinical services and research effort in the field of tinnitus. PMID:7299784

Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

PubMed Central

Aston, Elizabeth; Channon, Alastair; Day, Charles; Knight, Christopher G.

2013-01-01

Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has

Landscape Simplification Constrains Adult Size in a Native Ground-Nesting Bee

PubMed Central

Renauld, Miles; Hutchinson, Alena; Loeb, Gregory; Poveda, Katja; Connelly, Heather

2016-01-01

Bees provide critical pollination services to 87% of angiosperm plants; however, the reliability of these services may become threatened as bee populations decline. Agricultural intensification, resulting in the simplification of environments at the landscape scale, greatly changes the quality and quantity of resources available for female bees to provision their offspring. These changes may alter or constrain the tradeoffs in maternal investment allocation between offspring size, number and sex required to maximize fitness. Here we investigate the relationship between landscape scale agricultural intensification and the size and number of individuals within a wild ground nesting bee species, Andrena nasonii. We show that agricultural intensification at the landscape scale was associated with a reduction in the average size of field collected A. nasonii adults in highly agricultural landscapes but not with the number of individuals collected. Small females carried significantly smaller (40%) pollen loads than large females, which is likely to have consequences for subsequent offspring production and fitness. Thus, landscape simplification is likely to constrain allocation of resources to offspring through a reduction in the overall quantity, quality and distribution of resources. PMID:26943127

The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

PubMed

Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

2017-02-01

Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

Scale-Dependent Habitat Selection and Size-Based Dominance in Adult Male American Alligators

PubMed Central

Strickland, Bradley A.; Vilella, Francisco J.; Belant, Jerrold L.

2016-01-01

Habitat selection is an active behavioral process that may vary across spatial and temporal scales. Animals choose an area of primary utilization (i.e., home range) then make decisions focused on resource needs within patches. Dominance may affect the spatial distribution of conspecifics and concomitant habitat selection. Size-dependent social dominance hierarchies have been documented in captive alligators, but evidence is lacking from wild populations. We studied habitat selection for adult male American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis; n = 17) on the Pearl River in central Mississippi, USA, to test whether habitat selection was scale-dependent and individual resource selectivity was a function of conspecific body size. We used K-select analysis to quantify selection at the home range scale and patches within the home range to determine selection congruency and important habitat variables. In addition, we used linear models to determine if body size was related to selection patterns and strengths. Our results indicated habitat selection of adult male alligators was a scale-dependent process. Alligators demonstrated greater overall selection for habitat variables at the patch level and less at the home range level, suggesting resources may not be limited when selecting a home range for animals in our study area. Further, diurnal habitat selection patterns may depend on thermoregulatory needs. There was no relationship between resource selection or home range size and body size, suggesting size-dependent dominance hierarchies may not have influenced alligator resource selection or space use in our sample. Though apparent habitat suitability and low alligator density did not manifest in an observed dominance hierarchy, we hypothesize that a change in either could increase intraspecific interactions, facilitating a dominance hierarchy. Due to the broad and diverse ecological roles of alligators, understanding the factors that influence their social dominance

Scale-dependent habitat selection and size-based dominance in adult male American alligators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strickland, Bradley A.; Vilella, Francisco; Belant, Jerrold L.

2016-01-01

Habitat selection is an active behavioral process that may vary across spatial and temporal scales. Animals choose an area of primary utilization (i.e., home range) then make decisions focused on resource needs within patches. Dominance may affect the spatial distribution of conspecifics and concomitant habitat selection. Size-dependent social dominance hierarchies have been documented in captive alligators, but evidence is lacking from wild populations. We studied habitat selection for adult male American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis; n = 17) on the Pearl River in central Mississippi, USA, to test whether habitat selection was scale-dependent and individual resource selectivity was a function of conspecific body size. We used K-select analysis to quantify selection at the home range scale and patches within the home range to determine selection congruency and important habitat variables. In addition, we used linear models to determine if body size was related to selection patterns and strengths. Our results indicated habitat selection of adult male alligators was a scale-dependent process. Alligators demonstrated greater overall selection for habitat variables at the patch level and less at the home range level, suggesting resources may not be limited when selecting a home range for animals in our study area. Further, diurnal habitat selection patterns may depend on thermoregulatory needs. There was no relationship between resource selection or home range size and body size, suggesting size-dependent dominance hierarchies may not have influenced alligator resource selection or space use in our sample. Though apparent habitat suitability and low alligator density did not manifest in an observed dominance hierarchy, we hypothesize that a change in either could increase intraspecific interactions, facilitating a dominance hierarchy. Due to the broad and diverse ecological roles of alligators, understanding the factors that influence their social dominance

Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: There goes the neighborhood

Treesearch

M. C. Neel; K. McKelvey; N. Ryman; M. W. Lloyd; R. Short Bull; F. W. Allendorf; M. K. Schwartz; R. S. Waples

2013-01-01

Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (Ne) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating...

Estimating the number of sex workers in South Africa: rapid population size estimation.

PubMed

Konstant, Tracey L; Rangasami, Jerushah; Stacey, Maria J; Stewart, Michelle L; Nogoduka, Coceka

2015-02-01

Although recognized as a vulnerable population, there is no national population size estimate for sex workers in South Africa. A rapid sex worker enumeration exercise was undertaken in twelve locations across the country based on principles of participatory mapping and Wisdom of the Crowd. Sites with a range of characteristics were selected, focusing on level of urbanisation, trucking, mining and borders. At each site, sex worker focus groups mapped local hotspots. Interviews with sex workers at identified hotspots were used to estimate the numbers and genders of sex workers working in each. Estimates provided in the literature were combined with enumeration exercise results to define assumptions that could be applied to a national extrapolation. A working estimate was reached of between 131,000 and 182,000 sex worker in South Africa, or between 0.76 and 1 % of the adult female population. The success of the exercise depended on integral involvement of sex worker peer educators and strong ethical considerations.

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean

Population size, survival, and movements of white-cheeked pintails in Eastern Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collazo, J.A.; Bonilla-Martinez, G.

2001-01-01

We estimated numbers and survival of White-cheeked Pintails (Anas bahamensis) in eastern Puerto Rico during 1996-1999. We also quantified their movements between Culebra Island and the Humacao Wildlife Refuge, Puerto Rico. Mark-resight population size estimates averaged 1020 pintails during nine, 3-month sampling periods from January 1997 to June 1999. On average, minimum regional counts were 38 % lower than mark-resight estimates (mean = 631). Adult survival was 0.51 ?? 0.09 (SE). This estimate is similar for other anatids of similar size but broader geographic distribution. The probability of pintails surviving and staying in Humacao was hiher (67 %) than for counterparts on Culebra (31 %). The probability of surviving and moving from Culebra to Humacao (41 %) was higher than from Humacao to Culebra (20 %). These findings, and available information on reproduction, indicate that the Humacao Wildlife Refuge refuge has an important role in the regional demography of pintails. Our findings on population numbers and regional survival are encouraging, given concerns about the species' status due to habitat loss and hunting. However, our outlook for the species is tempered by the remaining gaps in the population dynamics of pintails; for examples, survival estimates of broods and fledglings (age 0-1) are needed for a comprehensive status assessment. Until additional data are obtianed, White-cheeked Pintails should continue to be protectd from hunting in Puerto Rico.

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T.; Matney, Mark

2010-01-01

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Matney, M.; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T. G.

2010-01-01

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

Sizing of patent ductus arteriosus in adults for transcatheter closure using the balloon pull-through technique.

PubMed

Shafi, Nabil A; Singh, Gagan D; Smith, Thomas W; Rogers, Jason H

2018-05-01

To describe a novel balloon sizing technique used during adult transcatheter patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) closure. In addition, to determine the clinical and procedural outcomes in six patients who underwent PDA balloon sizing with subsequent deployment of a PDA occluder device. Transcatheter PDA closure in adults has excellent safety and procedural outcomes. However, PDA sizing in adults can be challenging due to variable defect size, high flow state, or anatomical complexity. We describe a series of six cases where the balloon- pull through technique was successfully performed for PDA sizing prior to transcatheter closure. Consecutive adult patients undergoing adult PDA closure at our institution were studied retrospectively. A partially inflated sizing balloon was pulled through the defect from the aorta into the pulmonary artery and the balloon waist diameter was measured. Procedural success and clinical outcomes were obtained. Six adult patients underwent successful balloon pull-through technique for PDA sizing during transcatheter PDA closure, since conventional angiography often gave suboptimal opacification of the defect. All PDAs were treated with closure devices based on balloon PDA sizing with complete closure and no complications. In three patients that underwent preprocedure computed tomography, the balloon size matched the CT derived measurements. The balloon pull-through technique for PDA sizing is a safe and accurate sizing modality in adults undergoing transcatheter PDA closure. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Axial diffusivity of the corona radiata correlated with ventricular size in adult hydrocephalus.

PubMed

Cauley, Keith A; Cataltepe, Oguz

2014-07-01

Hydrocephalus causes changes in the diffusion-tensor properties of periventricular white matter. Understanding the nature of these changes may aid in the diagnosis and treatment planning of this relatively common neurologic condition. Because ventricular size is a common measure of the severity of hydrocephalus, we hypothesized that a quantitative correlation could be made between the ventricular size and diffusion-tensor changes in the periventricular corona radiata. In this article, we investigated this relationship in adult patients with hydrocephalus and in healthy adult subjects. Diffusion-tensor imaging metrics of the corona radiata were correlated with ventricular size in 14 adult patients with acute hydrocephalus, 16 patients with long-standing hydrocephalus, and 48 consecutive healthy adult subjects. Regression analysis was performed to investigate the relationship between ventricular size and the diffusion-tensor metrics of the corona radiata. Subject age was analyzed as a covariable. There is a linear correlation between fractional anisotropy of the corona radiata and ventricular size in acute hydrocephalus (r = 0.784, p < 0.001), with positive correlation with axial diffusivity (r = 0.636, p = 0.014) and negative correlation with radial diffusivity (r = 0.668, p = 0.009). In healthy subjects, axial diffusion in the periventricular corona radiata is more strongly correlated with ventricular size than with patient age (r = 0.466, p < 0.001, compared with r = 0.058, p = 0.269). Axial diffusivity of the corona radiata is linearly correlated with ventricular size in healthy adults and in patients with hydrocephalus. Radial diffusivity of the corona radiata decreases linearly with ventricular size in acute hydrocephalus but is not significantly correlated with ventricular size in healthy subjects or in patients with long-standing hydrocephalus.

Effective population size and genetic conservation criteria for bull trout

Treesearch

Bruce E. Rieman; F. W. Allendorf

2001-01-01

Effective population size (Ne) is an important concept in the management of threatened species like bull trout Salvelinus confluentus. General guidelines suggest that effective population sizes of 50 or 500 are essential to minimize inbreeding effects or maintain adaptive genetic variation, respectively....

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Rate of language evolution is affected by population size

PubMed Central

Bromham, Lindell; Hua, Xia; Fitzpatrick, Thomas G.; Greenhill, Simon J.

2015-01-01

The effect of population size on patterns and rates of language evolution is controversial. Do languages with larger speaker populations change faster due to a greater capacity for innovation, or do smaller populations change faster due to more efficient diffusion of innovations? Do smaller populations suffer greater loss of language elements through founder effects or drift, or do languages with more speakers lose features due to a process of simplification? Revealing the influence of population size on the tempo and mode of language evolution not only will clarify underlying mechanisms of language change but also has practical implications for the way that language data are used to reconstruct the history of human cultures. Here, we provide, to our knowledge, the first empirical, statistically robust test of the influence of population size on rates of language evolution, controlling for the evolutionary history of the populations and formally comparing the fit of different models of language evolution. We compare rates of gain and loss of cognate words for basic vocabulary in Polynesian languages, an ideal test case with a well-defined history. We demonstrate that larger populations have higher rates of gain of new words whereas smaller populations have higher rates of word loss. These results show that demographic factors can influence rates of language evolution and that rates of gain and loss are affected differently. These findings are strikingly consistent with general predictions of evolutionary models. PMID:25646448

Sample Size Calculations for Population Size Estimation Studies Using Multiplier Methods With Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys.

PubMed

Fearon, Elizabeth; Chabata, Sungai T; Thompson, Jennifer A; Cowan, Frances M; Hargreaves, James R

2017-09-14

While guidance exists for obtaining population size estimates using multiplier methods with respondent-driven sampling surveys, we lack specific guidance for making sample size decisions. To guide the design of multiplier method population size estimation studies using respondent-driven sampling surveys to reduce the random error around the estimate obtained. The population size estimate is obtained by dividing the number of individuals receiving a service or the number of unique objects distributed (M) by the proportion of individuals in a representative survey who report receipt of the service or object (P). We have developed an approach to sample size calculation, interpreting methods to estimate the variance around estimates obtained using multiplier methods in conjunction with research into design effects and respondent-driven sampling. We describe an application to estimate the number of female sex workers in Harare, Zimbabwe. There is high variance in estimates. Random error around the size estimate reflects uncertainty from M and P, particularly when the estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey is low. As expected, sample size requirements are higher when the design effect of the survey is assumed to be greater. We suggest a method for investigating the effects of sample size on the precision of a population size estimate obtained using multipler methods and respondent-driven sampling. Uncertainty in the size estimate is high, particularly when P is small, so balancing against other potential sources of bias, we advise researchers to consider longer service attendance reference periods and to distribute more unique objects, which is likely to result in a higher estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey. ©Elizabeth Fearon, Sungai T Chabata, Jennifer A Thompson, Frances M Cowan, James R Hargreaves. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 14.09.2017.

Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

PubMed

Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

2011-01-01

Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of

Empty Niches after Extinctions Increase Population Sizes of Modern Corals.

PubMed

Prada, Carlos; Hanna, Bishoy; Budd, Ann F; Woodley, Cheryl M; Schmutz, Jeremy; Grimwood, Jane; Iglesias-Prieto, Roberto; Pandolfi, John M; Levitan, Don; Johnson, Kenneth G; Knowlton, Nancy; Kitano, Hiroaki; DeGiorgio, Michael; Medina, Mónica

2016-12-05

Large environmental fluctuations often cause mass extinctions, extirpating species and transforming communities [1, 2]. While the effects on community structure are evident in the fossil record, demographic consequences for populations of individual species are harder to evaluate because fossils reveal relative, but not absolute, abundances. However, genomic analyses of living species that have survived a mass extinction event offer the potential for understanding the demographic effects of such environmental fluctuations on extant species. Here, we show how environmental variation since the Pliocene has shaped demographic changes in extant corals of the genus Orbicella, major extant reef builders in the Caribbean that today are endangered. We use genomic approaches to estimate previously unknown current and past population sizes over the last 3 million years. Populations of all three Orbicella declined around 2-1 million years ago, coincident with the extinction of at least 50% of Caribbean coral species. The estimated changes in population size are consistent across the three species despite their ecological differences. Subsequently, two shallow-water specialists expanded their population sizes at least 2-fold, over a time that overlaps with the disappearance of their sister competitor species O. nancyi (the organ-pipe Orbicella). Our study suggests that populations of Orbicella species are capable of rebounding from reductions in population size under suitable conditions and that the effective population size of modern corals provides rich standing genetic variation for corals to adapt to climate change. For conservation genetics, our study suggests the need to evaluate genetic variation under appropriate demographic models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Change-in-ratio methods for estimating population size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; McCullough, Dale R.; Barrett, Reginald H.

2002-01-01

Change-in-ratio (CIR) methods can provide an effective, low cost approach for estimating the size of wildlife populations. They rely on being able to observe changes in proportions of population subclasses that result from the removal of a known number of individuals from the population. These methods were first introduced in the 1940’s to estimate the size of populations with 2 subclasses under the assumption of equal subclass encounter probabilities. Over the next 40 years, closed population CIR models were developed to consider additional subclasses and use additional sampling periods. Models with assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time, rather than between subclasses, also received some attention. Recently, all of these CIR models have been shown to be special cases of a more general model. Under the general model, information from additional samples can be used to test assumptions about the encounter probabilities and to provide estimates of subclass sizes under relaxations of these assumptions. These developments have greatly extended the applicability of the methods. CIR methods are attractive because they do not require the marking of individuals, and subclass proportions often can be estimated with relatively simple sampling procedures. However, CIR methods require a carefully monitored removal of individuals from the population, and the estimates will be of poor quality unless the removals induce substantial changes in subclass proportions. In this paper, we review the state of the art for closed population estimation with CIR methods. Our emphasis is on the assumptions of CIR methods and on identifying situations where these methods are likely to be effective. We also identify some important areas for future CIR research.

Population size, group composition and behavioural ecology of geladas (Theropithecus gelada) and human-gelada conflict in Wonchit Valley, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Kifle, Zewdu; Belay, Gurja; Bekele, Afework

2013-11-01

Primates that live in protected areas are intensively studied; however, those that live outside protected areas are less studied by primatologists. Therefore, the present study was carried out outside protected areas on the endemic gelada (Theropithecus gelada) to estimate the population size and group composition and human-gelada conflict in Wonchit Valley, Ethiopia from August 2008-March 2009. Total count method was used to determine the population size and group composition of geladas. A band of geladas was selected to carry out behavioural research. Data were collected on activity, diet and ranging patterns for one band of geladas using scan samples at 15 min intervals. Data on human-gelada conflict was gathered using questionnaire interview method. The total number of geladas in the study area was 1525. The average size of one-male unit was 16.96. Adult male to adult female sex ratio was 1.00:6.61. The average size of the band was 58.03. Group size ranged from 3 to 220. Geladas spent 65.2% of their time feeding, 16.3% moving, 4.6% resting and 13.9% socializing. The total time spent feeding on grass blades was 83.8% and 11.8% for bulbs and roots. The home range size was 1.5 km2 during the dry season and 0.2 km2 during the wet season. Geladas in the study area caused crop damage and shared pasture and drinking water with livestock. They consume crops during harvesting stage more than the seedling and vegetative stages. The study has immense contribution for the conservation and management of this endemic primate in unprotected areas.

Body size and obesity patterns in Caboclo populations from Pará, Amazonia, Brazil.

PubMed

Silva, Hilton; Padez, Cristina

2010-04-01

In many developing countries overweight, obesity and obesity-related morbidity are becoming a problem of increasing public health importance. The purpose of this study was to investigate differences in body size and body composition with age in adults of the Caboclo populations from the Brazilian Amazon as well as to examine the prevalence of overweight and obesity in adults aged 20-75 years, taking into account recent trends for the whole country. Caboclo are genetically and culturally admixed rural peasant groups that live along the Amazon River and its tributaries in Brazil, and there are few previous studies of their health and lifestyle. A total of 304 subjects (149 males and 155 females) from two socioecologically different areas were studied. Height, weight and skinfolds (tricipital, subscapular and suprailiac) were measured; international intervals (WHO) for overweight and obesity were used. Women showed significantly lower values than men for height, weight, upper arm circumference and fat-free mass and higher values for triceps, subscapular and suprailiac skinfolds and body fat (%). In the overall sample combined overweight and obesity was 47.8% in men and 50.8% in women. When compared to recent values published for the Northern region and for the whole of Brazil, 20.5% of Caboclo women aged 20-75 years were obese, which is higher than all other populations, including other rural samples. Caboclo men showed the highest rates of obesity (9.1%) and overweight (39.1%) of any rural population from the country, including Northern Brazil. The results suggest an effect of increased Western lifestyle influence on the body composition of these Caboclo populations. Considering that these are rural populations with limited access to education and health care, the high prevalence of overweight and obesity associated with low socio-economic status makes them a vulnerable group that deserves a higher level of attention by the country's public health authorities.

Determining the Population Size of Pond Phytoplankton.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hummer, Paul J.

1980-01-01

Discusses methods for determining the population size of pond phytoplankton, including water sampling techniques, laboratory analysis of samples, and additional studies worthy of investigation in class or as individual projects. (CS)

Demographic and genetic status of an isolated population of bog turtles (Glyptemys muhlenbergii): Implications for managing small populations of long-lived animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pittman, Shannon E.; King, T.L.; Faurby, S.; Dorcas, M.E.

2011-01-01

In this study, we sought to determine the population stability and genetic diversity of one isolated population of the federally-threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) in North Carolina. Using capture-recapture data, we estimated adult survival and population growth rate from 1992 to 2007. We found that the population decreased from an estimated 36 adult turtles in 1994 to approximately 11 adult turtles in 2007. We found a constant adult survival of 0. 893 (SE = 0. 018, 95% confidence interval, 0. 853-0. 924) between 1992 and 2007. Using 18 microsatellite markers, we compared the genetic status of this population with five other bog turtle populations. The target population displayed allelic richness (4. 8 ?? 0. 5) and observed heterozygosity (0. 619 ?? 0. 064) within the range of the other bog turtle populations. Coalescent analysis of population growth rate, effective population size, and timing of population structuring event also indicated the genetics of the target population were comparable to the other populations studied. Estimates of effective population size were a proportion of the census size in all populations except the target population, in which the effective population size was larger than the census size (30 turtles vs. 11 turtles). We attribute the high genetic diversity in the target population to the presence of multiple generations of old turtles. This study illustrates that the demographic status of populations of long-lived species may not be reflected genetically if a decline occurred recently. Consequently, the genetic integrity of populations of long-lived animals experiencing rapid demographic bottlenecks may be preserved through conservation efforts effective in addressing demographic problems. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Physiological, Behavioral and Maternal Factors That Contribute to Size Variation in Larval Amphibian Populations

PubMed Central

Warne, Robin W.; Kardon, Adam; Crespi, Erica J.

2013-01-01

Size variance among similarly aged individuals within populations is a pattern common to many organisms that is a result of interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic traits of individuals. While genetic and maternal effects, as well as physiological and behavioral traits have been shown to contribute to size variation in animal populations, teasing apart the influence of such factors on individual growth rates remain a challenge. Furthermore, tracing the effects of these interactions across life stages and in shaping adult phenotypes also requires further exploration. In this study we investigated the relationship between genetics, hatching patterns, behaviors, neuroendocrine stress axis activity and variance in growth and metamorphosis among same-aged larval amphibians. Through parallel experiments we found that in the absence of conspecific interactions, hatch time and to a lesser extent egg clutch identity (i.e. genetics and maternal effects) influenced the propensity for growth and development in individual tadpoles and determined metamorphic traits. Within experimental groups we found that variance in growth rates was associated with size-dependent foraging behaviors and responses to food restriction. We also found an inverse relationship between glucocorticoid (GC) hormone levels and body mass and developmental stage among group-reared tadpoles, which suggests that GC expression plays a role in regulating differing within-population growth trajectories in response to density-dependent conditions. Taken together these findings suggest that factors that influence hatching conditions can have long-term effects on growth and development. These results also raise compelling questions regarding the extent to which maternal and genetic factors influence physiological and behavioral profiles in amphibians. PMID:24143188

Age and Time Population Differences: Young Adults, Gen Xers, and Millennials

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Menard, Lauren A.

2013-01-01

Age and Time disparities in young adult research populations are common because young adults are defined by varying age spans; members of Generation X and Millennial generations may both be considered young adults; study years vary, affecting populations; and qualitative methods with limited age/year samples are frequently utilized. The current…

Density-dependent effects on growth, body size, and clutch size in Black Brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, James S.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Person, Brian T.; Eichholz, Michael W.; Herzog, Mark P.; Flint, Paul L.

1998-01-01

We documented gosling size in late summer, adult body size, and clutch size of known-age Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) females nesting on the Tutakoke River colony between 1986 and 1995. During this period, the colony increased from 1,100 to >5,000 nesting pairs. Gosling mass at 30 days of age declined from 764 ± SE of 13 g and 723 ± 15 g for males and females, respectively, in the 1986 cohort, to 665 ± 18 g and 579 ± 18 g in the 1994 cohort. Gosling size was directly negatively correlated with number of Black Brant broods. We detected no trend in adult body size for individuals from these cohorts; in fact, adults from the 1992 and 1994 cohorts had the largest overall masses. Clutch size increased with age from 3.4 eggs for 2-year-old females to 4.4 eggs for 5-year-old females. Clutch size declined during the study by 0.20 (3-year-old females) to 0.45 (2-year-old females) eggs. Clutch size did not decline between the 1986 and 1990 cohorts for females that were >5 years old. Our results for clutch size and gosling size are similar to those recorded for Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens). Our failure to detect a trend in adult body size, however, differs from the response of other geese to increasing population density. We interpret this difference in effects of density on adult size between Black Brant and other geese as an indication of stronger selection against the smallest individuals in Black Brant relative to other species of geese.

Eating habits of a population undergoing a rapid dietary transition: portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods and beverages consumed by Inuit adults in Nunavut, Canada

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background To determine the portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods being consumed by Inuit adults in three remote communities in Nunavut, Canada. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out between June and October, 2008. Trained field workers collected dietary data using a culturally appropriate, validated quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) developed specifically for the study population. Results Caribou, muktuk (whale blubber and skin) and Arctic char (salmon family), were the most commonly consumed traditional foods; mean portion sizes for traditional foods ranged from 10 g for fermented seal fat to 424 g for fried caribou. Fried bannock and white bread were consumed by >85% of participants; mean portion sizes for these foods were 189 g and 70 g, respectively. Sugar-sweetened beverages and energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods were also widely consumed. Mean portion sizes for regular pop and sweetened juices with added sugar were 663 g and 572 g, respectively. Mean portion sizes for potato chips, pilot biscuits, cakes, chocolate and cookies were 59 g, 59 g, 106 g, 59 g, and 46 g, respectively. Conclusions The present study provides further evidence of the nutrition transition that is occurring among Inuit in the Canadian Arctic. It also highlights a number of foods and beverages that could be targeted in future nutritional intervention programs aimed at obesity and diet-related chronic disease prevention in these and other Inuit communities. PMID:23724920

Influences of population size and density on birthplace effects.

PubMed

Hancock, David J; Coutinho, Patrícia; Côté, Jean; Mesquita, Isabel

2018-01-01

Contextual influences on talent development (e.g., birthplace effects) have become a topic of interest for sport scientists. Birthplace effects occur when being born in a certain city size leads to participation or performance advantages, typically for those born in smaller or mid-sized cities. The purpose of this study was to investigate birthplace effects in Portuguese volleyball players by analysing city size, as well as population density - an important but infrequently used variable. Participants included 4062 volleyball players (M age  = 33), 53.2% of whom were men. Using Portuguese national census data from 1981, we compared participants (within each sex) across five population categories. In addition, we used ANOVAs to study expertise and population density. Results indicated that men and women athletes born in districts of 200,000-399,999 were 2.4 times more likely to attain elite volleyball status, while all other districts decreased the odds of expert development. For men, being born in high-density areas resulted in less chance of achieving expertise, whereas there were no differences for women. The results suggest that athletes' infrastructure and social structure play an important role in talent development, and that these structures are influenced by total population and population density, respectively.

Genome size differentiates co-occurring populations of the planktonic diatom Ditylum brightwellii (Bacillariophyta)

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Diatoms are one of the most species-rich groups of eukaryotic microbes known. Diatoms are also the only group of eukaryotic micro-algae with a diplontic life history, suggesting that the ancestral diatom switched to a life history dominated by a duplicated genome. A key mechanism of speciation among diatoms could be a propensity for additional stable genome duplications. Across eukaryotic taxa, genome size is directly correlated to cell size and inversely correlated to physiological rates. Differences in relative genome size, cell size, and acclimated growth rates were analyzed in isolates of the diatom Ditylum brightwellii. Ditylum brightwellii consists of two main populations with identical 18s rDNA sequences; one population is distributed globally at temperate latitudes and the second appears to be localized to the Pacific Northwest coast of the USA. These two populations co-occur within the Puget Sound estuary of WA, USA, although their peak abundances differ depending on local conditions. Results All isolates from the more regionally-localized population (population 2) possessed 1.94 ± 0.74 times the amount of DNA, grew more slowly, and were generally larger than isolates from the more globally distributed population (population 1). The ITS1 sequences, cell sizes, and genome sizes of isolates from New Zealand were the same as population 1 isolates from Puget Sound, but their growth rates were within the range of the slower-growing population 2 isolates. Importantly, the observed genome size difference between isolates from the two populations was stable regardless of time in culture or the changes in cell size that accompany the diatom life history. Conclusions The observed two-fold difference in genome size between the D. brightwellii populations suggests that whole genome duplication occurred within cells of population 1 ultimately giving rise to population 2 cells. The apparent regional localization of population 2 is consistent with a recent

Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Hill, . M.; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.

2010-01-01

The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm

Estimating population size with correlated sampling unit estimates

Treesearch

David C. Bowden; Gary C. White; Alan B. Franklin; Joseph L. Ganey

2003-01-01

Finite population sampling theory is useful in estimating total population size (abundance) from abundance estimates of each sampled unit (quadrat). We develop estimators that allow correlated quadrat abundance estimates, even for quadrats in different sampling strata. Correlated quadrat abundance estimates based on mark–recapture or distance sampling methods occur...

Facial morphologies of an adult Egyptian population and an adult Houstonian white population compared using 3D imaging.

PubMed

Seager, Dennis Craig; Kau, Chung How; English, Jeryl D; Tawfik, Wael; Bussa, Harry I; Ahmed, Abou El Yazeed M

2009-09-01

To compare the facial morphologies of an adult Egyptian population with those of a Houstonian white population. The three-dimensional (3D) images were acquired via a commercially available stereophotogrammetric camera capture system. The 3dMDface System photographed 186 subjects from two population groups (Egypt and Houston). All of the participants from both population groups were between 18 and 30 years of age and had no apparent facial anomalies. All facial images were overlaid and superimposed, and a complex mathematical algorithm was performed to generate a composite facial average (one male and one female) for each subgroup (EGY-M: Egyptian male subjects; EGY-F: Egyptian female subjects; HOU-M: Houstonian male subjects; and HOU-F: Houstonian female subjects). The computer-generated facial averages were superimposed based on a previously validated superimposition method, and the facial differences were evaluated and quantified. Distinct facial differences were evident between the subgroups evaluated, involving various regions of the face including the slant of the forehead, and the nasal, malar, and labial regions. Overall, the mean facial differences between the Egyptian and Houstonian female subjects were 1.33 +/- 0.93 mm, while the differences in Egyptian and Houstonian male subjects were 2.32 +/- 2.23 mm. The range of differences for the female population pairings and the male population pairings were 14.34 mm and 13.71 mm, respectively. The average adult Egyptian and white Houstonian face possess distinct differences. Different populations and ethnicities have different facial features and averages.

Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

2011-01-01

We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

Does population size affect genetic diversity? A test with sympatric lizard species.

PubMed

Hague, M T J; Routman, E J

2016-01-01

Genetic diversity is a fundamental requirement for evolution and adaptation. Nonetheless, the forces that maintain patterns of genetic variation in wild populations are not completely understood. Neutral theory posits that genetic diversity will increase with a larger effective population size and the decreasing effects of drift. However, the lack of compelling evidence for a relationship between genetic diversity and population size in comparative studies has generated some skepticism over the degree that neutral sequence evolution drives overall patterns of diversity. The goal of this study was to measure genetic diversity among sympatric populations of related lizard species that differ in population size and other ecological factors. By sampling related species from a single geographic location, we aimed to reduce nuisance variance in genetic diversity owing to species differences, for example, in mutation rates or historical biogeography. We compared populations of zebra-tailed lizards and western banded geckos, which are abundant and short-lived, to chuckwallas and desert iguanas, which are less common and long-lived. We assessed population genetic diversity at three protein-coding loci for each species. Our results were consistent with the predictions of neutral theory, as the abundant species almost always had higher levels of haplotype diversity than the less common species. Higher population genetic diversity in the abundant species is likely due to a combination of demographic factors, including larger local population sizes (and presumably effective population sizes), faster generation times and high rates of gene flow with other populations.

Population sizes and group characteristics of Siberian Crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) and Hooded Crane (Grus monacha) in Poyang Lake Wetland

PubMed Central

SHAO, Ming-Qin; GUO, Hong; JIANG, Jian-Hong

2014-01-01

Both the Siberian Crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) and Hooded Crane (Grus monacha) have limited population sizes and are considered endangered by domestic Chinese and international agencies. To document the current size of their respective populations and characterize their groups, between October 2012 and April 2013 we undertook fieldwork at four nature reserve areas within the Poyang Lake wetlands. We divided Poyanghu National Nature Reserve (PYH) into the Wucheng (PWC) and Hengfeng areas (PHF), because each are each located in different counties. Our fieldwork showed that the Siberian Crane occurred mainly in PYH (364 in the PHF, 158 in the PWC) and the Nanjishan Wetland National Nature Reserve (NJS, with 200 individuals). The Hooded Crane was mainly distributed in PYH (302 in the PHF and 154 in the PWC). Family groups accounted for more than 50% of the total number of groups among both species, with Hooded Cranes forming more family groups than Siberian Cranes. Typically, these groups were formed of two adults with one offspring (Siberian Crane), and two adults with two offspring (Hooded Crane), with the mean family group size of the Siberian Crane and Hooded Crane being respectively 2.65±0.53 (n=43) and 3.09±0.86 (n=47) individuals per group. The mean collective group size of the Siberian Crane and Hooded Crane included 28.09±24.94 (n=23) and 28.94±27.97 (n=16) individuals per group, respectively, with the proportion of juveniles among Hooded Cranes being more than double that seen among the Siberian Cranes. PMID:25297076

One size does not fit all: older adults benefit from redundant text in multimedia instruction

PubMed Central

Fenesi, Barbara; Vandermorris, Susan; Kim, Joseph A.; Shore, David I.; Heisz, Jennifer J.

2015-01-01

The multimedia design of presentations typically ignores that younger and older adults have varying cognitive strengths and weaknesses. We examined whether differential instructional design may enhance learning in these populations. Younger and older participants viewed one of three computer-based presentations: Audio only (narration), Redundant (audio narration with redundant text), or Complementary (audio narration with non-redundant text and images). Younger participants learned better when audio narration was paired with relevant images compared to when audio narration was paired with redundant text. However, older participants learned best when audio narration was paired with redundant text. Younger adults, who presumably have a higher working memory capacity (WMC), appear to benefit more from complementary information that may drive deeper conceptual processing. In contrast, older adults learn better from presentations that support redundant coding across modalities, which may help mitigate the effects of age-related decline in WMC. Additionally, several misconceptions of design quality appeared across age groups: both younger and older participants positively rated less effective designs. Findings suggest that one-size does not fit all, with older adults requiring unique multimedia design tailored to their cognitive abilities for effective learning. PMID:26284000

One size does not fit all: older adults benefit from redundant text in multimedia instruction.

PubMed

Fenesi, Barbara; Vandermorris, Susan; Kim, Joseph A; Shore, David I; Heisz, Jennifer J

2015-01-01

The multimedia design of presentations typically ignores that younger and older adults have varying cognitive strengths and weaknesses. We examined whether differential instructional design may enhance learning in these populations. Younger and older participants viewed one of three computer-based presentations: Audio only (narration), Redundant (audio narration with redundant text), or Complementary (audio narration with non-redundant text and images). Younger participants learned better when audio narration was paired with relevant images compared to when audio narration was paired with redundant text. However, older participants learned best when audio narration was paired with redundant text. Younger adults, who presumably have a higher working memory capacity (WMC), appear to benefit more from complementary information that may drive deeper conceptual processing. In contrast, older adults learn better from presentations that support redundant coding across modalities, which may help mitigate the effects of age-related decline in WMC. Additionally, several misconceptions of design quality appeared across age groups: both younger and older participants positively rated less effective designs. Findings suggest that one-size does not fit all, with older adults requiring unique multimedia design tailored to their cognitive abilities for effective learning.

Effective population size and genetic structure of a Piute ground squirrel (Spermophilus mollis) population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Antolin, Michael F.; Van Horne, Beatrice; Berger, Michael D.

2001-01-01

Piute ground squirrels (Spermophilus mollis) are distributed continuously in habitat dominated by native shrubs and perennial grasses in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in Idaho, U.S.A. This habitat is being fragmented and replaced by exotic annual plants, changing it to a wildfire-dominated system that provides poor habitat for ground squirrels. To assess potential effects of this fragmentation on ground squirrel populations, we combined an estimate of effective population size (Ne) based upon a demographic study with a population genetic analysis. The study area included three subpopulations separated from each other by 8–13 km. The ratio of effective population size to census number (Ne/N) was 0.57. Combining Ne/N with dispersal distances from a radio-tracking study, we calculated that neighborhood size was 62.2 ha, which included between 204 and 480 individuals. Our population genetic analysis (based on randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and microsatellite markers) showed relatively low levels of genetic differentiation (Qpopulations 0.07–0.10) between subpopulations and no inbreeding within subpopulations (f = 0.0003). These estimates of population subdivision translate into an effective migration rate (Nem) of 2.3–3.3 per year, which represents a high level of gene flow. Invasion by exotics will reduce the overall productivity of the habitat, and will lead to isolation among subpopulations if favorable habitat patches become isolated.

Non-parametric estimation of population size changes from the site frequency spectrum.

PubMed

Waltoft, Berit Lindum; Hobolth, Asger

2018-06-11

Changes in population size is a useful quantity for understanding the evolutionary history of a species. Genetic variation within a species can be summarized by the site frequency spectrum (SFS). For a sample of size n, the SFS is a vector of length n - 1 where entry i is the number of sites where the mutant base appears i times and the ancestral base appears n - i times. We present a new method, CubSFS, for estimating the changes in population size of a panmictic population from an observed SFS. First, we provide a straightforward proof for the expression of the expected site frequency spectrum depending only on the population size. Our derivation is based on an eigenvalue decomposition of the instantaneous coalescent rate matrix. Second, we solve the inverse problem of determining the changes in population size from an observed SFS. Our solution is based on a cubic spline for the population size. The cubic spline is determined by minimizing the weighted average of two terms, namely (i) the goodness of fit to the observed SFS, and (ii) a penalty term based on the smoothness of the changes. The weight is determined by cross-validation. The new method is validated on simulated demographic histories and applied on unfolded and folded SFS from 26 different human populations from the 1000 Genomes Project.

46 CFR 160.171-17 - Approval testing for adult size immersion suit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... equivalent synthetic socks; (v) Work shoes, if the suit is designed for shoes to be worn inside. (2) Test... Approval testing for adult size immersion suit. Caution: During each of the in-water tests prescribed in... if the oversize adult suit is of the same design as the adult suit except for extra material to...

Larval exposure to the neonicotinoid imidacloprid impacts adult size in the farmland butterfly Pieris brassicae.

PubMed

Whitehorn, Penelope R; Norville, George; Gilburn, Andre; Goulson, Dave

2018-01-01

Populations of farmland butterflies have been suffering from substantial population declines in recent decades. These declines have been correlated with neonicotinoid usage both in Europe and North America but experimental evidence linking these correlations is lacking. The potential for non-target butterflies to be exposed to trace levels of neonicotinoids is high, due to the widespread contamination of agricultural soils and wild plants in field margins. Here we provide experimental evidence that field realistic, sub-lethal exposure to the neonicotinoid imidacloprid negatively impacts the development of the common farmland butterfly Pieris brassicae . Cabbage plants were watered with either 0, 1, 10, 100 or 200 parts per billion imidacloprid, to represent field margin plants growing in contaminated agricultural soils and these were fed to P. brassicae larvae. The approximate digestibility (AD) of the cabbage as well as behavioural responses by the larvae to simulated predator attacks were measured but neither were affected by neonicotinoid treatment. However, the duration of pupation and the size of the adult butterflies were both significantly reduced in the exposed butterflies compared to the controls, suggesting that adult fitness is compromised through exposure to this neonicotinoid.

Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rauter, Claudia M.

2010-01-01

This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

Microhabitat use, population densities, and size distributions of sulfur cave-dwelling Poecilia mexicana

PubMed Central

Bierbach, David; Riesch, Rüdiger; Schießl, Angela; Wigh, Adriana; Arias-Rodriguez, Lenin; Indy, Jeane Rimber; Klaus, Sebastian; Zimmer, Claudia; Plath, Martin

2014-01-01

The Cueva del Azufre in Tabasco, Mexico, is a nutrient-rich cave and its inhabitants need to cope with high levels of dissolved hydrogen sulfide and extreme hypoxia. One of the successful colonizers of this cave is the poeciliid fish Poecilia mexicana, which has received considerable attention as a model organism to examine evolutionary adaptations to extreme environmental conditions. Nonetheless, basic ecological data on the endemic cave molly population are still missing; here we aim to provide data on population densities, size class compositions and use of different microhabitats. We found high overall densities in the cave and highest densities at the middle part of the cave with more than 200 individuals per square meter. These sites have lower H2S concentrations compared to the inner parts where most large sulfide sources are located, but they are annually exposed to a religious harvesting ceremony of local Zoque people called La Pesca. We found a marked shift in size/age compositions towards an overabundance of smaller, juvenile fish at those sites. We discuss these findings in relation to several environmental gradients within the cave (i.e., differences in toxicity and lighting conditions), but we also tentatively argue that the annual fish harvest during a religious ceremony (La Pesca) locally diminishes competition (and possibly, cannibalism by large adults), which is followed by a phase of overcompensation of fish densities. PMID:25083351

Microhabitat use, population densities, and size distributions of sulfur cave-dwelling Poecilia mexicana.

PubMed

Jourdan, Jonas; Bierbach, David; Riesch, Rüdiger; Schießl, Angela; Wigh, Adriana; Arias-Rodriguez, Lenin; Indy, Jeane Rimber; Klaus, Sebastian; Zimmer, Claudia; Plath, Martin

2014-01-01

The Cueva del Azufre in Tabasco, Mexico, is a nutrient-rich cave and its inhabitants need to cope with high levels of dissolved hydrogen sulfide and extreme hypoxia. One of the successful colonizers of this cave is the poeciliid fish Poecilia mexicana, which has received considerable attention as a model organism to examine evolutionary adaptations to extreme environmental conditions. Nonetheless, basic ecological data on the endemic cave molly population are still missing; here we aim to provide data on population densities, size class compositions and use of different microhabitats. We found high overall densities in the cave and highest densities at the middle part of the cave with more than 200 individuals per square meter. These sites have lower H2S concentrations compared to the inner parts where most large sulfide sources are located, but they are annually exposed to a religious harvesting ceremony of local Zoque people called La Pesca. We found a marked shift in size/age compositions towards an overabundance of smaller, juvenile fish at those sites. We discuss these findings in relation to several environmental gradients within the cave (i.e., differences in toxicity and lighting conditions), but we also tentatively argue that the annual fish harvest during a religious ceremony (La Pesca) locally diminishes competition (and possibly, cannibalism by large adults), which is followed by a phase of overcompensation of fish densities.

Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

PubMed

Deutsch, Madeline B

2016-06-01

An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities.

Sex ratio rather than population size affects genetic diversity in Antennaria dioica.

PubMed

Rosche, C; Schrieber, K; Lachmuth, S; Durka, W; Hirsch, H; Wagner, V; Schleuning, M; Hensen, I

2018-03-09

Habitat fragmentation and small population size can lead to genetic erosion in threatened plant populations. Classical theory implies that dioecy can counteract genetic erosion as it decreases the magnitude of inbreeding and genetic drift due to obligate outcrossing. However, in small populations, sex ratios may be strongly male- or female-biased, leading to substantial reductions in effective population size. This may theoretically result in a unimodal relationship between sex ratios and genetic diversity; yet, empirical studies on this relationship are scarce. Using AFLP markers, we studied genetic diversity, structure and differentiation in 14 highly fragmented Antennaria dioica populations from the Central European lowlands. Our analyses focused on the relationship between sex ratio, population size and genetic diversity. Although most populations were small (mean: 35.5 patches), genetic diversity was moderately high. We found evidence for isolation-by-distance, but overall differentiation of the populations was rather weak. Females dominated 11 populations, which overall resulted in a slightly female-biased sex ratio (61.5%). There was no significant relationship between population size and genetic diversity. The proportion of females was not unimodally but positively linearly related to genetic diversity. The high genetic diversity and low genetic differentiation suggest that A. dioica has been widely distributed in the Central European lowlands in the past, while fragmentation occurred only in the last decades. Sex ratio has more immediate consequences on genetic diversity than population size. An increasing proportion of females can increase genetic diversity in dioecious plants, probably due to a higher amount of sexual reproduction. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Critical patch-size for two-sex populations.

PubMed

Andreguetto Maciel, Gabriel; Mendes Coutinho, Renato; André Kraenkel, Roberto

2018-06-01

As environments become increasingly degraded, mainly due to human activities, species are often subject to isolated habitats surrounded by unfavorable regions. Since the pioneering work by Skellam [25] mathematical models have provided useful insights into the population persistence in such cases. Most of these models, however, neglect the sex structure of populations and the differences between males and females. In this work we investigate, through a reaction-diffusion system, the dynamics of a sex-structured population in a single semipermeable patch. The critical patch size for persistence is determined from implicit relationships between model parameters. The effects of the various growth and movement parameters are also investigated. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Generation time and effective population size in Polar Eskimos.

PubMed

Matsumura, Shuichi; Forster, Peter

2008-07-07

North Greenland Polar Eskimos are the only hunter-gatherer population, to our knowledge, who can offer precise genealogical records spanning several generations. This is the first report from Eskimos on two key parameters in population genetics, namely, generation time (T) and effective population size (Ne). The average mother-daughter and father-son intervals were 27 and 32 years, respectively, roughly similar to the previously published generation times obtained from recent agricultural societies across the world. To gain an insight for the generation time in our distant ancestors, we calculated maternal generation time for two wild chimpanzee populations. We also provide the first comparison among three distinct approaches (genealogy, variance and life table methods) for calculating Ne, which resulted in slightly differing values for the Eskimos. The ratio of the effective to the census population size is estimated as 0.6-0.7 for autosomal and X-chromosomal DNA, 0.7-0.9 for mitochondrial DNA and 0.5 for Y-chromosomal DNA. A simulation of alleles along the genealogy suggested that Y-chromosomal DNA may drift a little faster than mitochondrial DNA in this population, in contrast to agricultural Icelanders. Our values will be useful not only in prehistoric population inference but also in understanding the shaping of our genome today.

Differences in Antipsychotic-Related Adverse Events in Adult, Pediatric, and Geriatric Populations.

PubMed

Sagreiya, Hersh; Chen, Yi-Ren; Kumarasamy, Narmadan A; Ponnusamy, Karthik; Chen, Doris; Das, Amar K

2017-02-26

In recent years, antipsychotic medications have increasingly been used in pediatric and geriatric populations, despite the fact that many of these drugs were approved based on clinical trials in adult patients only. Preliminary studies have shown that the "off-label" use of these drugs in pediatric and geriatric populations may result in adverse events not found in adults. In this study, we utilized the large-scale U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Events Reporting System (AERS) database to look at differences in adverse events from antipsychotics among adult, pediatric, and geriatric populations. We performed a systematic analysis of the FDA AERS database using MySQL by standardizing the database using structured terminologies and ontologies. We compared adverse event profiles of atypical versus typical antipsychotic medications among adult (18-65), pediatric (age < 18), and geriatric (> 65) populations. We found statistically significant differences between the number of adverse events in the pediatric versus adult populations with aripiprazole, clozapine, fluphenazine, haloperidol, olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, and thiothixene, and between the geriatric versus adult populations with aripiprazole, chlorpromazine, clozapine, fluphenazine, haloperidol, paliperidone, promazine, risperidone, thiothixene, and ziprasidone (p < 0.05, with adjustment for multiple comparisons). Furthermore, the particular types of adverse events reported also varied significantly between each population for aripiprazole, clozapine, haloperidol, olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, and ziprasidone (Chi-square, p < 10 -6 ). Diabetes was the most commonly reported side effect in the adult population, compared to behavioral problems in the pediatric population and neurologic symptoms in the geriatric population. We also found discrepancies between the frequencies of reports in AERS and in the literature. Our analysis of the FDA AERS database shows that there are

Population-Based Resequencing of Experimentally Evolved Populations Reveals the Genetic Basis of Body Size Variation in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Turner, Thomas L.; Stewart, Andrew D.; Fields, Andrew T.; Rice, William R.; Tarone, Aaron M.

2011-01-01

Body size is a classic quantitative trait with evolutionarily significant variation within many species. Locating the alleles responsible for this variation would help understand the maintenance of variation in body size in particular, as well as quantitative traits in general. However, successful genome-wide association of genotype and phenotype may require very large sample sizes if alleles have low population frequencies or modest effects. As a complementary approach, we propose that population-based resequencing of experimentally evolved populations allows for considerable power to map functional variation. Here, we use this technique to investigate the genetic basis of natural variation in body size in Drosophila melanogaster. Significant differentiation of hundreds of loci in replicate selection populations supports the hypothesis that the genetic basis of body size variation is very polygenic in D. melanogaster. Significantly differentiated variants are limited to single genes at some loci, allowing precise hypotheses to be formed regarding causal polymorphisms, while other significant regions are large and contain many genes. By using significantly associated polymorphisms as a priori candidates in follow-up studies, these data are expected to provide considerable power to determine the genetic basis of natural variation in body size. PMID:21437274

Altitudinal variation in age and body size in Yunnan pond frog (Pelophylax pleuraden).

PubMed

Lou, Shang Ling; Jin, Long; Liu, Yan Hong; Mi, Zhi Ping; Tao, Gang; Tang, Yu Mei; Liao, Wen Bo

2012-08-01

Large-scale systematic patterns of body size are a basic concern of evolutionary biology. Identifying body size variation along altitudinal gradients may help us to understand the evolution of life history of animals. In this study, we investigated altitudinal variation in body size, age and growth rate in Chinese endemic frog, Pelophylax pleuraden. Data sampled from five populations covering an altitudinal span of 1413 to 1935 m in Sichuan province revealed that body size from five populations did not co-vary with altitudes, not following Bergmann's rule. Average adult SVL differed significantly among populations in males, but not in females. For both sexes, average adult age differed significantly among populations. Post-metamorphic growth rate did not co-vary with altitude, and females grew faster than males in all populations. When controlling the effect of age, body size did not differ among populations in both sexes, suggesting that age did not affect variation in body size among populations. For females, there may be other factors, such as the allocation of energy between growth and reproduction, that eliminated the effect of age on body size. To our minds, the major reason of body size variation among populations in male frogs may be related to individual longevity. Our findings also suggest that factors other than age and growth rate may contribute to size differences among populations.

A New Method for Estimating the Effective Population Size from Allele Frequency Changes

PubMed Central

Pollak, Edward

1983-01-01

A new procedure is proposed for estimating the effective population size, given that information is available on changes in frequencies of the alleles at one or more independently segregating loci and the population is observed at two or more separate times. Approximate expressions are obtained for the variances of the new statistic, as well as others, also based on allele frequency changes, that have been discussed in the literature. This analysis indicates that the new statistic will generally have a smaller variance than the others. Estimates of effective population sizes and of the standard errors of the estimates are computed for data on two fly populations that have been discussed in earlier papers. In both cases, there is evidence that the effective population size is very much smaller than the minimum census size of the population. PMID:17246147

Population genomics of eusocial insects: the costs of a vertebrate-like effective population size.

PubMed

Romiguier, J; Lourenco, J; Gayral, P; Faivre, N; Weinert, L A; Ravel, S; Ballenghien, M; Cahais, V; Bernard, A; Loire, E; Keller, L; Galtier, N

2014-03-01

The evolution of reproductive division of labour and social life in social insects has lead to the emergence of several life-history traits and adaptations typical of larger organisms: social insect colonies can reach masses of several kilograms, they start reproducing only when they are several years old, and can live for decades. These features and the monopolization of reproduction by only one or few individuals in a colony should affect molecular evolution by reducing the effective population size. We tested this prediction by analysing genome-wide patterns of coding sequence polymorphism and divergence in eusocial vs. noneusocial insects based on newly generated RNA-seq data. We report very low amounts of genetic polymorphism and an elevated ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous changes – a marker of the effective population size – in four distinct species of eusocial insects, which were more similar to vertebrates than to solitary insects regarding molecular evolutionary processes. Moreover, the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions was positively correlated with the level of social complexity across ant species. These results are fully consistent with the hypothesis of a reduced effective population size and an increased genetic load in eusocial insects, indicating that the evolution of social life has important consequences at both the genomic and population levels. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Determining size and dispersion of minimum viable populations for land management planning and species conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmkuhl, John F.

1984-03-01

The concept of minimum populations of wildlife and plants has only recently been discussed in the literature. Population genetics has emerged as a basic underlying criterion for determining minimum population size. This paper presents a genetic framework and procedure for determining minimum viable population size and dispersion strategies in the context of multiple-use land management planning. A procedure is presented for determining minimum population size based on maintenance of genetic heterozygosity and reduction of inbreeding. A minimum effective population size ( N e ) of 50 breeding animals is taken from the literature as the minimum shortterm size to keep inbreeding below 1% per generation. Steps in the procedure adjust N e to account for variance in progeny number, unequal sex ratios, overlapping generations, population fluctuations, and period of habitat/population constraint. The result is an approximate census number that falls within a range of effective population size of 50 500 individuals. This population range defines the time range of short- to long-term population fitness and evolutionary potential. The length of the term is a relative function of the species generation time. Two population dispersion strategies are proposed: core population and dispersed population.

Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

PubMed

Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

2003-06-01

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

Estimating the size of hidden populations using respondent-driven sampling data: Case examples from Morocco

PubMed Central

Johnston, Lisa G; McLaughlin, Katherine R; Rhilani, Houssine El; Latifi, Amina; Toufik, Abdalla; Bennani, Aziza; Alami, Kamal; Elomari, Boutaina; Handcock, Mark S

2015-01-01

Background Respondent-driven sampling is used worldwide to estimate the population prevalence of characteristics such as HIV/AIDS and associated risk factors in hard-to-reach populations. Estimating the total size of these populations is of great interest to national and international organizations, however reliable measures of population size often do not exist. Methods Successive Sampling-Population Size Estimation (SS-PSE) along with network size imputation allows population size estimates to be made without relying on separate studies or additional data (as in network scale-up, multiplier and capture-recapture methods), which may be biased. Results Ten population size estimates were calculated for people who inject drugs, female sex workers, men who have sex with other men, and migrants from sub-Sahara Africa in six different cities in Morocco. SS-PSE estimates fell within or very close to the likely values provided by experts and the estimates from previous studies using other methods. Conclusions SS-PSE is an effective method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations that leverages important information within respondent-driven sampling studies. The addition of a network size imputation method helps to smooth network sizes allowing for more accurate results. However, caution should be used particularly when there is reason to believe that clustered subgroups may exist within the population of interest or when the sample size is small in relation to the population. PMID:26258908

Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y. -l; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J. -C; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.; Stokely, C. L.; Whitlock, D.

2008-01-01

Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

Using Population Density and Size Class Frequency to Identify Recruitment Limitation and Saturation in Shellfishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.

2016-02-01

Many fisheries are threatened due to overfishing, changing climate, and anthropogenic activities. Benthic marine organisms can be especially vulnerable to these pressures because of their inability to flee, and some of these organisms comprise the most threatened fisheries. Providing predictive tools to managers is key to reestablishing populations and sustainability in threatened or crashed fisheries. Here we examine the demographics of Cellana spp., culturally and culinarily important intertidal shellfishes in Hawai'i, in populations that are naturally recruitment limited and those that are recruitment saturated. We focus on variation in two demographic parameters: population density and size class frequency. From 2009 to 2015, yearly transect surveys were conducted on four isolated and uninhabited islands within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM), a massive marine protected area. Two islands exhibit classic signs of recruitment limitation with several absent intertidal species and low population densities while two larger islands have a relative abundance of species and high population densities. The population density of C. exarata in the recruitment-saturated populations exhibit much higher variability, than in the recruitment-limited populations, that is driven by a massive recruitment peak in May-June. An inverted age pyramid characterized the recruitment-limited populations, which display a more stable adult-dominated population. The recruitment-saturated populations were characterized by a traditional age pyramid, which exhibit a less stable juvenile-dominated population. These results are being used to model and predict population dynamics in the intensely harvested populations of the main Hawaiian Islands for the purposes of management decision-making.

Noninvasive genetics provides insights into the population size and genetic diversity of an Amur tiger population in China.

PubMed

Wang, Dan; Hu, Yibo; Ma, Tianxiao; Nie, Yonggang; Xie, Yan; Wei, Fuwen

2016-01-01

Understanding population size and genetic diversity is critical for effective conservation of endangered species. The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is the largest felid and a flagship species for wildlife conservation. Due to habitat loss and human activities, available habitat and population size are continuously shrinking. However, little is known about the true population size and genetic diversity of wild tiger populations in China. In this study, we collected 55 fecal samples and 1 hair sample to investigate the population size and genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers in Hunchun National Nature Reserve, Jilin Province, China. From the samples, we determined that 23 fecal samples and 1 hair sample were from 7 Amur tigers: 2 males, 4 females and 1 individual of unknown sex. Interestingly, 2 fecal samples that were presumed to be from tigers were from Amur leopards, highlighting the significant advantages of noninvasive genetics over traditional methods in studying rare and elusive animals. Analyses from this sample suggested that the genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers is much lower than that of Bengal tigers, consistent with previous findings. Furthermore, the genetic diversity of this Hunchun population in China was lower than that of the adjoining subpopulation in southwest Primorye Russia, likely due to sampling bias. Considering the small population size and relatively low genetic diversity, it is urgent to protect this endangered local subpopulation in China. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

2003-01-01

Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

Recruitment in a sea anemone population: juvenile substrate becomes adult prey.

PubMed

Sebens, K P

1981-08-14

Populations of the sea anemone Anthopleura xanthogrammica (Brandt) occur in tide pools and surge channels below intertidal mussel beds where they capture mussels dislodged by wave action and by sea star foraging. Dense concentrations of small juvenile anemones occur only within mussel beds and are probably the result of larval settlement or differential survival in that habitat. Areas experimentally cleared of anemones showed that recruitment was primarily by migrating juveniles and that the rate of immigration over a 2-year period was much higher in experimental removal areas near mussel beds than in those further away. Mussel beds thus function as an important juvenile habitat (refuge and nursery); juveniles later migrate downward and are then in a position to capture dislodged mussels and grow to adult size.

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator: Deer Population Dynamics

DOE PAGES

Chitwood, Michael C.; Lashley, Marcus A.; Kilgo, John C.; ...

2015-02-01

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes ( Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for adult females. However, no study has used field-based vital rates to conduct sensitivity analyses or model deer population trajectories under potential harvest or predator removal strategies. We used low, medium, and high values of fawn survival, adult female survival, and fecundity data collected from Fortmore » Bragg Military Installation, North Carolina to demonstrate the current declining population trajectory for deer (λ = 0.905; low λ = 0.788, high λ = 1.003). Consistent with other studies of ungulates, we determined adult female survival was the most sensitive and elastic vital rate. Further, for 3 potential management (“what if”) scenarios, we projected the population for 10 years using estimated vital rates. Reducing adult female harvest (λ = 0.935; low λ = 0.875, high λ = 1.002) and coyote removal (λ = 0.995; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.081) reduced the current population decline, whereas combining both approaches (λ = 1.024; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.141) resulted in population increases. Our data indicate that for low-density deer populations with heavy predation pressure on neonates, protecting adult females from harvest may not completely offset population declines. Coyote removal might be a necessary strategy because it could possibly increase very low fawn survival, which appears to be the most important vital rate influencing λ in our study. However, managers may have to start with reductions in adult female harvest because coyote removal would have to be continuous and consistently effective, making it an impractical management approach by itself.« less

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator: Deer Population Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chitwood, Michael C.; Lashley, Marcus A.; Kilgo, John C.

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes ( Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for adult females. However, no study has used field-based vital rates to conduct sensitivity analyses or model deer population trajectories under potential harvest or predator removal strategies. We used low, medium, and high values of fawn survival, adult female survival, and fecundity data collected from Fortmore » Bragg Military Installation, North Carolina to demonstrate the current declining population trajectory for deer (λ = 0.905; low λ = 0.788, high λ = 1.003). Consistent with other studies of ungulates, we determined adult female survival was the most sensitive and elastic vital rate. Further, for 3 potential management (“what if”) scenarios, we projected the population for 10 years using estimated vital rates. Reducing adult female harvest (λ = 0.935; low λ = 0.875, high λ = 1.002) and coyote removal (λ = 0.995; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.081) reduced the current population decline, whereas combining both approaches (λ = 1.024; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.141) resulted in population increases. Our data indicate that for low-density deer populations with heavy predation pressure on neonates, protecting adult females from harvest may not completely offset population declines. Coyote removal might be a necessary strategy because it could possibly increase very low fawn survival, which appears to be the most important vital rate influencing λ in our study. However, managers may have to start with reductions in adult female harvest because coyote removal would have to be continuous and consistently effective, making it an impractical management approach by itself.« less

Quantifying the Variation in the Effective Population Size Within a Genome

PubMed Central

Gossmann, Toni I.; Woolfit, Megan; Eyre-Walker, Adam

2011-01-01

The effective population size (Ne) is one of the most fundamental parameters in population genetics. It is thought to vary across the genome as a consequence of differences in the rate of recombination and the density of selected sites due to the processes of genetic hitchhiking and background selection. Although it is known that there is intragenomic variation in the effective population size in some species, it is not known whether this is widespread or how much variation in the effective population size there is. Here, we test whether the effective population size varies across the genome, between protein-coding genes, in 10 eukaryotic species by considering whether there is significant variation in neutral diversity, taking into account differences in the mutation rate between loci by using the divergence between species. In most species we find significant evidence of variation. We investigate whether the variation in Ne is correlated to recombination rate and the density of selected sites in four species, for which these data are available. We find that Ne is positively correlated to recombination rate in one species, Drosophila melanogaster, and negatively correlated to a measure of the density of selected sites in two others, humans and Arabidopsis thaliana. However, much of the variation remains unexplained. We use a hierarchical Bayesian analysis to quantify the amount of variation in the effective population size and show that it is quite modest in all species—most genes have an Ne that is within a few fold of all other genes. Nonetheless we show that this modest variation in Ne is sufficient to cause significant differences in the efficiency of natural selection across the genome, by demonstrating that the ratio of the number of nonsynonymous to synonymous polymorphisms is significantly correlated to synonymous diversity and estimates of Ne, even taking into account the obvious nonindependence between these measures. PMID:21954163

A parametric ribcage geometry model accounting for variations among the adult population.

PubMed

Wang, Yulong; Cao, Libo; Bai, Zhonghao; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan D; Hoff, Carrie N; Hu, Jingwen

2016-09-06

The objective of this study is to develop a parametric ribcage model that can account for morphological variations among the adult population. Ribcage geometries, including 12 pair of ribs, sternum, and thoracic spine, were collected from CT scans of 101 adult subjects through image segmentation, landmark identification (1016 for each subject), symmetry adjustment, and template mesh mapping (26,180 elements for each subject). Generalized procrustes analysis (GPA), principal component analysis (PCA), and regression analysis were used to develop a parametric ribcage model, which can predict nodal locations of the template mesh according to age, sex, height, and body mass index (BMI). Two regression models, a quadratic model for estimating the ribcage size and a linear model for estimating the ribcage shape, were developed. The results showed that the ribcage size was dominated by the height (p=0.000) and age-sex-interaction (p=0.007) and the ribcage shape was significantly affected by the age (p=0.0005), sex (p=0.0002), height (p=0.0064) and BMI (p=0.0000). Along with proper assignment of cortical bone thickness, material properties and failure properties, this parametric ribcage model can directly serve as the mesh of finite element ribcage models for quantifying effects of human characteristics on thoracic injury risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population size and relatedness affect fitness of a self-incompatible invasive plant.

PubMed

Elam, Diane R; Ridley, Caroline E; Goodell, Karen; Ellstrand, Norman C

2007-01-09

One of the lingering paradoxes in invasion biology is how founder populations of an introduced species are able to overcome the limitations of small size and, in a "reversal of fortune," proliferate in a new habitat. The transition from colonist to invader is especially enigmatic for self-incompatible species, which must find a mate to reproduce. In small populations, the inability to find a mate can result in the Allee effect, a positive relationship between individual fitness and population size or density. Theoretically, the Allee effect should be common in founder populations of self-incompatible colonizing species and may account for the high rate of failed introductions, but little supporting evidence exists. We created a field experiment to test whether the Allee effect affects the maternal fitness of a self-incompatible invasive species, wild radish (Raphanus sativus). We created populations of varying size and relatedness. We measured maternal fitness in terms of both fruit set per flower and seed number per fruit. We found that both population size and the level of genetic relatedness among individuals influence maternal reproductive success. Our results explicitly define an ecological genetic obstacle faced by populations of an exotic species on its way to becoming invasive. Such a mechanistic understanding of the invasions of species that require a mate can and should be exploited for both controlling current outbreaks and reducing their frequency in the future.

Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population

PubMed Central

Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M.

2015-01-01

The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann’s cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann’s rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution. PMID:26197998

Estimating the size of an open population using sparse capture-recapture data.

PubMed

Huggins, Richard; Stoklosa, Jakub; Roach, Cameron; Yip, Paul

2018-03-01

Sparse capture-recapture data from open populations are difficult to analyze using currently available frequentist statistical methods. However, in closed capture-recapture experiments, the Chao sparse estimator (Chao, 1989, Biometrics 45, 427-438) may be used to estimate population sizes when there are few recaptures. Here, we extend the Chao (1989) closed population size estimator to the open population setting by using linear regression and extrapolation techniques. We conduct a small simulation study and apply the models to several sparse capture-recapture data sets. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Inequalities in body size among mermithid nematodes parasitizing earwigs.

PubMed

Maure, Fanny; Poulin, Robert

2016-12-01

Variation among body sizes of adult parasitic worms determines the relative genetic contribution of individuals to the next generation as it affects the effective parasite population size. Here, we investigate inequalities in body size and how they are affected by intensity of infection in Mermis nigrescens (Mermithidae: Nematoda) parasitizing the European earwig Forficula auricularia in New Zealand. Among a population of pre-adult worms prior to their emergence from the host, we observed only modest inequalities in body length; however, among worms sharing the same individual host, inequalities in body sizes decreased with increasing intensity of infection. Thus, the more worms occurred in a host, the more the second-longest, third-longest and even fourth-longest worms approached the longest worm in body length. This pattern, also known from another mermithid species, suggests that worms sharing the same host may have infected it roughly simultaneously, when the host encountered a clump of eggs in the environment. Thus, the life history and mode of infection of the parasite may explain the modest inequalities in the sizes achieved by pre-adult worms, which are lower than those reported for endoparasitic helminths of vertebrates.

Odontoid process inclination in normal adults and in an adult population with Chiari malformation Type I.

PubMed

Besachio, David A; Khaleel, Ziyad; Shah, Lubdha M

2015-12-01

Posterior odontoid process inclination has been demonstrated as a factor associated with Chiari malformation Type I (CM-I) in the pediatric population; however, no studies to date have examined this measurement in the adult CM-I population. The purpose of this study was to evaluate craniocervical junction (CCJ) measurements in adult CM-I versus a control group. The odontoid retroflexion, odontoid retroversion, odontoid height, posterior basion to C-2 line measured to the dural margin (pB-C2 line), posterior basion to C-2 line measured to the dorsal odontoid cortical margin (pB-C2* line), and clivus-canal angle measurements were retrospectively analyzed in adult patients with CM-I using MRI. These measurements were compared with normative values established from CT scans of the cervical spine in adults without CM-I. A statistically significant difference was found between 55 adults with CM-I and 150 sex-matched controls (125 used for analysis) in the mean clivus-canal angle and the mean pB-C2 line. These data suggest that there are sex-specific differences with respect to measurements at the CCJ between men and women, with women showing a more posteriorly inclined odontoid process. There were also differences between the CM-I and control groups: a more acute clivus-canal angle was associated with CM-I in the adult population. These CCJ findings could have an influence on presurgical planning.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo.

PubMed

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82% of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28%) and subadult males (29%). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

The genetics of rhizosheath size in a multiparent mapping population of wheat.

PubMed

Delhaize, Emmanuel; Rathjen, Tina M; Cavanagh, Colin R

2015-08-01

Rhizosheaths comprise soil that adheres to plant roots and, in some species, are indicative of root hair length. In this study, the genetics of rhizosheath size in wheat was investigated by screening the progeny of multiparent advanced generation intercrosses (MAGIC). Two MAGIC populations were screened for rhizosheath size using a high throughput method. One MAGIC population was developed from intercrosses between four parents (4-way) and the other from intercrosses between eight parents (8-way). Transgressive segregation for rhizosheath size was observed in both the 4-way and 8-way MAGIC populations. A quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis of the 4-way population identified six major loci located on chromosomes 2B, 4D, 5A, 5B, 6A, and 7A together accounting for 42% of the variation in rhizosheath size. Rhizosheath size was strongly correlated with root hair length and was robust across different soil types in the absence of chemical constraints. Rhizosheath size in the MAGIC populations was a reliable surrogate for root hair length and, therefore, the QTL identified probably control root hair elongation. Members of the basic helix-loop-helix family of transcription factors have previously been identified to regulate root hair length in Arabidopsis and rice. Since several wheat members of the basic helix-loop-helix family of genes are located within or near the QTL, these genes are candidates for controlling the long root hair trait. The QTL for rhizosheath size identified in this study provides the opportunity to implement marker-assisted selection to increase root hair length for improved phosphate acquisition in wheat. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

PubMed

Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

2012-03-01

1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of

Orthodontic treatment need in a Spanish young adult population

PubMed Central

Montiel-Company, José M.; Manzanera-Pastor, David; Almerich-Silla, José M.

2012-01-01

Objectives: Orthodontic treatment need has often been assessed in child populations, but few studies employing internationally-recognized indices have been conducted in adult or young adult populations. The aim of this study was to determine the orthodontic treatment need of a young adult population in Spain by means of the Dental Aesthetic Index (DAI), the Index of Orthodontic Treatment Need (IOTN) and the need perceived by the patients. Study design: A cross-sectional epidemiological study was conducted in a broad, representative sample of 671 adults aged between 35 and 44 years using health centers in the Valencia Region of Spain, following the recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO). Results: Orthodontic treatment was required by 31.3% of the sample according to the DAI and 19.2% according to the IOTN (DHC). The orthodontic treatment need perceived by the patients was 21.1%. On relating treatment need to different variables, significant differences in patient perception were encountered by gender, as women perceived a greater need (23.9%) than men (14.4%). Significant differences in previous orthodontic treatment history were found between middle/high (15%) and low (9%) social class and between secondary/tertiary (14%) and primary (3.3%) education. Conclusions: There was no agreement between the treatment need assessed objectively by the indices and that perceived by the patient, or between the indices themselves. The decision to undergo orthodontic treatment can depend on socioeconomic and psychological factors and on values and principles that do not easily lend themselves to objective measurement. Key words:Orthodontics, epidemiology, adult, malocclusion. PMID:22322504

The Small Size Debris Population at GEO from Optical Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seitzer, Patrick; Barker, Ed; Buckalew, Brent; Burkhardt, Andrew; Cowardin, Heather; Frith, James; Kaleida, Catherine; Lederer, Susan M.; Lee, Chris H.

2017-01-01

We have observed the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) debris population at sizes smaller than 10 cm using optical observations with the 6.5-m Magellan telescope 'Walter Baade' at the Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. The IMACS f/2 imaging camera with a 0.5-degree diameter field of view has been used in small area surveys of the GEO regime to study the population of optically faint GEO debris. The goal is to estimate the population of GEO debris that is fainter than can be studied with 1-meter class telescopes. A significant population of objects fainter than R = 19th magnitude has been found. These objects have observed with angular rates consistent with circular orbits and orbital inclinations up to 15 degrees at GEO. A sizeable number of these objects have significant brightness variations ("flashes") during the 5-second exposure, which suggest rapid changes in the albedo-projected size product.

The Ecological Genetics of Introduced Populations of the Giant Toad BUFO MARINUS. II. Effective Population Size

PubMed Central

Easteal, Simon

1985-01-01

The allele frequencies are described at ten polymorphic enzyme loci (of a total of 22 loci sampled) in 15 populations of the neotropical giant toad, Bufo marinus, introduced to Hawaii and Australia in the 1930s. The history of establishment of the ten populations is described and used as a framework for the analysis of allele frequency variances. The variances are used to determine the effective sizes of the populations. The estimates obtained (390 and 346) are reasonably precise, homogeneous between localities and much smaller than estimates of neighborhood size obtained previously using ecological methods. This discrepancy is discussed, and it is concluded that the estimates obtained here using genetic methods are the more reliable. PMID:3922852

The protozoan parasite Trichomonas gallinae causes adult and nestling mortality in a declining population of European Turtle Doves, Streptopelia turtur.

PubMed

Stockdale, Jennifer E; Dunn, Jenny C; Goodman, Simon J; Morris, Antony J; Sheehan, Danaë K; Grice, Philip V; Hamer, Keith C

2015-03-01

Studies incorporating the ecology of clinical and sub-clinical disease in wild populations of conservation concern are rare. Here we examine sub-clinical infection by Trichomonas gallinae in a declining population of free-living European Turtle Doves and suggest caseous lesions cause mortality in adults and nestlings through subsequent starvation and/or suffocation. We found a 100% infection rate by T. gallinae in adult and nestling Turtle Doves (n = 25) and observed clinical signs in three adults and four nestlings (28%). Adults with clinical signs displayed no differences in any skeletal measures of size but had a mean 3.7% reduction in wing length, with no overlap compared to those without clinical signs. We also identified T. gallinae as the suggested cause of mortality in one Red-legged Partridge although disease presentation was different. A minimum of four strains of T. gallinae, characterized at the ITS/5.8S/ITS2 ribosomal region, were isolated from Turtle Doves. However, all birds with clinical signs (Turtle Doves and the Red-legged Partridge) carried a single strain of T. gallinae, suggesting that parasite spill over between Columbidae and Galliformes is a possibility that should be further investigated. Overall, we highlight the importance of monitoring populations for sub-clinical infection rather than just clinical disease.

Size matters: insights from an allometric approach to evaluate control methods for invasive Australian Rhinella marina.

PubMed

Beaty, Lynne E; Salice, Christopher J

2013-10-01

Invasive species are costly and difficult to control. In order to gain a mechanistic understanding of potential control measures, individual-based models uniquely parameterized to reflect the salient life-history characteristics of invasive species are useful. Using invasive Australian Rhinella marina as a case study, we constructed a cohort- and individual-based population simulation that incorporates growth and body size of terrestrial stages. We used this allometric approach to examine the efficacy of nontraditional control methods (i.e., tadpole alarm chemicals and native meat ants) that may have indirect effects on population dynamics mediated by effects on body size. We compared population estimates resulting from these control methods with traditional hand removal. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect that model parameters, specifically those associated with growth and body size, had on adult population estimates. Incremental increases in hand removal of adults and juveniles caused nonlinear decreases in adult population estimates, suggesting less return with increased investment in hand-removal efforts. Applying tadpole alarm chemicals or meat ants decreased adult population estimates on the same level as removing 15-25% of adults and juveniles by hand. The combined application of tadpole alarm chemicals and meat ants resulted in approximately 80% decrease in adult abundance, the largest of any applied control method. In further support of the nontraditional control methods, which greatly affected the metamorph stage, our model was most sensitive to changes in metamorph survival, juvenile survival, metamorph growth rate, and adult survival. Our results highlight the use and insights that can be gained from individual-based models that incorporate growth and body size and the potential success that nontraditional control methods could have in controlling established, invasive Rhinella marina populations.

Assessing the roles of population density and predation risk in the evolution of offspring size in populations of a placental fish

PubMed Central

Schrader, Matthew; Travis, Joseph

2012-01-01

Population density is an ecological variable that is hypothesized to be a major agent of selection on offspring size. In high-density populations, high levels of intraspecific competition are expected to favor the production of larger offspring. In contrast, lower levels of intraspecific competition and selection for large offspring should be weaker and more easily overridden by direct selection for increased fecundity in low-density populations. Some studies have found associations between population density and offspring size consistent with this hypothesis. However, their interpretations are often clouded by a number of issues. Here, we use data from a 10-year study of nine populations of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa, to describe the associations of offspring size with habitat type, population density, and predation risk. We found that females from spring populations generally produced larger offspring than females from ponds; however, the magnitude of this difference varied among years. Across all populations, larger offspring were associated with higher densities and lower risks of predation. Interestingly, the associations between the two ecological variables (density and predation risk) and offspring size were largely independent of one another. Our results suggest that previously described genetic differences in offspring size are due to density-dependent natural selection. PMID:22957156

Genetic consequences of polygyny and social structure in an Indian fruit bat, Cynopterus sphinx. II. Variance in male mating success and effective population size.

PubMed

Storz, J F; Bhat, H R; Kunz, T H

2001-06-01

Variance in reproductive success is a primary determinant of genetically effective population size (Ne), and thus has important implications for the role of genetic drift in the evolutionary dynamics of animal taxa characterized by polygynous mating systems. Here we report the results of a study designed to test the hypothesis that polygynous mating results in significantly reduced Ne in an age-structured population. This hypothesis was tested in a natural population of a harem-forming fruit bat, Cynopterus sphinx (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae), in western India. The influence of the mating system on the ratio of variance Ne to adult census number (N) was assessed using a mathematical model designed for age-structured populations that incorporated demographic and genetic data. Male mating success was assessed by means of direct and indirect paternity analysis using 10-locus microsatellite genotypes of adults and progeny from two consecutive breeding periods (n = 431 individually marked bats). Combined results from both analyses were used to infer the effective number of male parents in each breeding period. The relative proportion of successfully reproducing males and the size distribution of paternal sibships comprising each offspring cohort revealed an extremely high within-season variance in male mating success (up to 9.2 times higher than Poisson expectation). The resultant estimate of Ne/N for the C. sphinx study population was 0.42. As a result of polygynous mating, the predicted rate of drift (1/2Ne per generation) was 17.6% higher than expected from a Poisson distribution of male mating success. However, the estimated Ne/N was well within the 0.25-0.75 range expected for age-structured populations under normal demographic conditions. The life-history schedule of C. sphinx is characterized by a disproportionately short sexual maturation period scaled to adult life span. Consequently, the influence of polygynous mating on Ne/N is mitigated by the extensive

[Place and type of meals consumed by adults in medium sized cities].

PubMed

Carús, Juliana Pires; França, Giovanny V A; Barros, Aluísio J D

2014-02-01

To describe the meals consumed by adults living in a midsize city in the South of Brazil, according to the place and preparation. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2012. The two-stage sampling design used the 2010 census tracts as primary sampling units. Data were collected on the place of meals (at home or out) and on the kind of preparations consumed at home (homemade, snacks, take away food) covering the two days prior to the interview, using a standardized questionnaire. The study included 2,927 adults, of which 59.0% were female, 60.0% were below 50 years of age and 58.0% were in work. Data were collected on 11,581 meals consumed on the two days preceding the interview, 25.0% were consumed outside of the home at lunchtime, and 10.0% at dinnertime. Considering home meals, most participants reported eating food prepared at home at both lunch and dinner. The majority of out-of-home meals (64.0% for lunch and 61.0% for dinner) were consumed in the work place, mostly based on food prepared at home. Individuals eating out of home were mostly male, young and highly educated. The occupational categories that ate at restaurants more often were trade workers, businessmen, teachers and graduate professionals. Despite the changes in eating patterns described in Brazil in recent years, residents of medium-sized towns still mostly eat at home, consuming homemade food. To describe the meals consumed by adults living in a midsize city in the South of Brazil, according to the place and preparation. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2012. The two-stage sampling design used the 2010 census tracts as primary sampling units. Data were collected on the place of meals (at home or out) and on the kind of preparations consumed at home (homemade, snacks, take away food) covering the two days prior to the interview, using a standardized questionnaire. The study included 2,927 adults

Population size estimation in Yellowstone wolves with error-prone noninvasive microsatellite genotypes.

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Spong, Goran; Sands, Jennifer L; Rotella, Jay; Zeigle, Janet; Joe, Lawrence; Murphy, Kerry M; Smith, Douglas

2003-07-01

Determining population sizes can be difficult, but is essential for conservation. By counting distinct microsatellite genotypes, DNA from noninvasive samples (hair, faeces) allows estimation of population size. Problems arise because genotypes from noninvasive samples are error-prone, but genotyping errors can be reduced by multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For faecal genotypes from wolves in Yellowstone National Park, error rates varied substantially among samples, often above the 'worst-case threshold' suggested by simulation. Consequently, a substantial proportion of multilocus genotypes held one or more errors, despite multiple PCR. These genotyping errors created several genotypes per individual and caused overestimation (up to 5.5-fold) of population size. We propose a 'matching approach' to eliminate this overestimation bias.

Organ dose conversion coefficients for tube current modulated CT protocols for an adult population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Wanyi; Tian, Xiaoyu; Sahbaee, Pooyan; Zhang, Yakun; Segars, William Paul; Samei, Ehsan

2016-03-01

In computed tomography (CT), patient-specific organ dose can be estimated using pre-calculated organ dose conversion coefficients (organ dose normalized by CTDIvol, h factor) database, taking into account patient size and scan coverage. The conversion coefficients have been previously estimated for routine body protocol classes, grouped by scan coverage, across an adult population for fixed tube current modulated CT. The coefficients, however, do not include the widely utilized tube current (mA) modulation scheme, which significantly impacts organ dose. This study aims to extend the h factors and the corresponding dose length product (DLP) to create effective dose conversion coefficients (k factor) database incorporating various tube current modulation strengths. Fifty-eight extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantoms were included in this study representing population anatomy variation in clinical practice. Four mA profiles, representing weak to strong mA dependency on body attenuation, were generated for each phantom and protocol class. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate the organ dose. The organ dose and effective dose was further normalized by CTDIvol and DLP to derive the h factors and k factors, respectively. The h factors and k factors were summarized in an exponential regression model as a function of body size. Such a population-based mathematical model can provide a comprehensive organ dose estimation given body size and CTDIvol. The model was integrated into an iPhone app XCATdose version 2, enhancing the 1st version based upon fixed tube current modulation. With the organ dose calculator, physicists, physicians, and patients can conveniently estimate organ dose.

Heterogeneous effects of market integration on sub-adult body size and nutritional status among the Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador.

PubMed

Urlacher, Samuel S; Liebert, Melissa A; Josh Snodgrass, J; Blackwell, Aaron D; Cepon-Robins, Tara J; Gildner, Theresa E; Madimenos, Felicia C; Amir, Dorsa; Bribiescas, Richard G; Sugiyama, Lawrence S

2016-07-01

Market integration (MI)-increasing production for and consumption from a market-based economy-is drastically altering traditional ways of life and environmental conditions among indigenous Amazonian peoples. The effects of MI on the biology and health of Amazonian children and adolescents, however, remain unclear. This study examines the impact of MI on sub-adult body size and nutritional status at the population, regional and household levels among the Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Anthropometric data were collected between 2005-2014 from 2164 Shuar (aged 2-19 years) living in two geographic regions differing in general degree of MI. High-resolution household economic, lifestyle and dietary data were collected from a sub-sample of 631 participants. Analyses were performed to investigate relationships between body size and year of data collection, region and specific aspects of household MI. Results from temporal and regional analyses suggest that MI has a significant and overall positive impact on Shuar body size and nutritional status. However, household-level results exhibit nuanced and heterogeneous specific effects of MI underlying these overarching relationships. This study provides novel insight into the complex socio-ecological pathways linking MI, physical growth and health among the Shuar and other indigenous Amazonian populations.

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

PubMed Central

DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.

Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earnst, Susan L.; Stehn, R.A.; Platte, Robert; Larned, W.W.; Mallek, E.J.

2005-01-01

The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986a??2003 and 1992a??2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of a??0.9% (95% CI of a??3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206a??3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910a??4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

Lipoprotein (a) level, apolipoprotein (a) size, and risk of unexplained ischemic stroke in young and middle-aged adults.

PubMed

Beheshtian, Azadeh; Shitole, Sanyog G; Segal, Alan Z; Leifer, Dana; Tracy, Russell P; Rader, Daniel J; Devereux, Richard B; Kizer, Jorge R

2016-10-01

Circulating lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)] level relates inversely to apolipoprotein (a) [apo(a)] size. Both smaller apo(a) isoforms and higher Lp(a) levels have been linked to coronary heart disease and stroke, but their independent contributions are less well defined. We examined the role of Lp(a) in younger adults with cryptogenic stroke. Lp(a) and apo(a) isoforms were evaluated in a prospectively designed case-control study of patients with unexplained ischemic stroke and stroke-free controls, ages 18 to 64. Serum Lp(a) was measured among 255 cases and 390 controls with both apo(a)-size independent and dependent assays. Apo(a) size was determined by agarose gel electrophoresis. Cases and controls were similar in socio-demographic characteristics, but cases had more hypertension, diabetes, smoking, and migraine with aura. In race-specific analyses, Lp(a) levels showed positive associations with cryptogenic stroke in whites, but not in the smaller subgroups of blacks and Hispanics. After full adjustment, comparison of the highest versus lowest quartile in whites was significant for apo(a)-size-independent (OR = 2.10 [95% CI = 1.04, 4.27], p = 0.040), and near-significant for apo(a)-size-dependent Lp(a) (OR = 1.81 [95% CI = 0.95, 3.47], p = 0.073). Apo(a) size was not associated with cryptogenic stroke in any race-ethnic subgroup. This study underscores the importance of Lp(a) level, but not apo(a) size, as an independent risk factor for unexplained ischemic stroke in young and middle-aged white adults. Given the emergence of effective Lp(a)-lowering therapies, these findings support routine testing for Lp(a) in this setting, along with further research to assess the extent to which such therapies improve outcomes in this population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.

2003-01-01

Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.

One-step estimation of networked population size: Respondent-driven capture-recapture with anonymity.

PubMed

Khan, Bilal; Lee, Hsuan-Wei; Fellows, Ian; Dombrowski, Kirk

2018-01-01

Size estimation is particularly important for populations whose members experience disproportionate health issues or pose elevated health risks to the ambient social structures in which they are embedded. Efforts to derive size estimates are often frustrated when the population is hidden or hard-to-reach in ways that preclude conventional survey strategies, as is the case when social stigma is associated with group membership or when group members are involved in illegal activities. This paper extends prior research on the problem of network population size estimation, building on established survey/sampling methodologies commonly used with hard-to-reach groups. Three novel one-step, network-based population size estimators are presented, for use in the context of uniform random sampling, respondent-driven sampling, and when networks exhibit significant clustering effects. We give provably sufficient conditions for the consistency of these estimators in large configuration networks. Simulation experiments across a wide range of synthetic network topologies validate the performance of the estimators, which also perform well on a real-world location-based social networking data set with significant clustering. Finally, the proposed schemes are extended to allow them to be used in settings where participant anonymity is required. Systematic experiments show favorable tradeoffs between anonymity guarantees and estimator performance. Taken together, we demonstrate that reasonable population size estimates are derived from anonymous respondent driven samples of 250-750 individuals, within ambient populations of 5,000-40,000. The method thus represents a novel and cost-effective means for health planners and those agencies concerned with health and disease surveillance to estimate the size of hidden populations. We discuss limitations and future work in the concluding section.

Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

2015-09-01

How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Spatially-explicit estimation of Wright's neighborhood size in continuous populations

Treesearch

Andrew J. Shirk; Samuel A. Cushman

2014-01-01

Effective population size (Ne) is an important parameter in conservation genetics because it quantifies a population's capacity to resist loss of genetic diversity due to inbreeding and drift. The classical approach to estimate Ne from genetic data involves grouping sampled individuals into discretely defined subpopulations assumed to be panmictic. Importantly,...

Population size and selection intensity effects on short-term response for a selection index in Tribolium.

PubMed

Campo, J L; Turrado, H

1997-01-12

The effects of population size and selection intensity on the short-term response to selection were investigated in an experiment with Tribolium, using a two-trait empirical selection index for pupal and adult weights. Twenty lines were selected following a factorial design of five population sizes (1, 2, 4, 8, and 16 pairs of parents) and four selection intensities (20, 25, 33, and 50%), with three replicates. For each replicate, an unselected control with 16 pairs of parents was produced. There were four generations of selection per line. Selection response was significant in all lines with the 20% selection intensity and/or the 16-pair population size. Selection intensity and population size were significant effects and there was significant interaction between them. Higher selection intensities produced more overall significant response to selection (20% > (25% = 33%) > 50%); this significance was also found for the 16-pair population size. There was an overall significant difference among population sizes, with the larger population sizes giving more response than the smaller sizes (16-pair = 8-pair = 4-pair) > (2-pair = 1-pair); this significance was also found for the 20% selection intensity. There was a good agreement between observed and expected responses, except for the 50% selection intensity and/or 1-pair population size; expected values in generation 1 overestimated observed values. The realized heritability was similar in all lines. With equal and high numbers of individuals scored, it was better to choose a high selection intensity than a large population size. The results show that the effect of population size cannot be ignored, even in short-term selection response; the main influence of population size is through selection differential. RESUMEN: Los efectos del tamaño de población y la intensidad de selección sobre la respuesta a corto plazo para un índice de selección en Tribolium Los efectos del tamaño de población y la intensidad de

Population size dependency of measles epidemic that was scalable from Japanese prefectures to European countries.

PubMed

Yoshikura, Hiroshi

2018-04-27

Relation between number of measles patients (y) and population size (x) was expressed by an equation y = ax s , where a is a constant and s the slope of the plot; s was 2.04-2.17 for prefectures in Japan, i.e., the number of patients was proportional to square of the prefecture population size. For European countries that joined European Union no later than 2009, the slope was 1.43-1.87. The measles' population dependency found among prefectures in Japan was thus scalable up to European countries. It was surprising because, unlike Japan, population density in EU countries was not uniform and not proportional to the population size. The population size dependency was not observed among Western Pacific and South-East Asian countries probably on account of confounding interacting socioeconomic factors. Correlation between measles incidence and birth rate, infant mortality or GDP per capita was almost insignificant.Size distribution of local infection clusters (LICs) of measles and rubella in Japan followed power law. For measles, though the population dependency remained unchanged after "elimination", there was change in the Zipf-type plot of LIC sizes. After the "elimination", LICs linked to importation-related outbreaks in less populated prefectures emerged as the top-ranked LICs.

Estimation of census and effective population sizes: the increasing usefulness of DNA-based approaches

Treesearch

Gordon Luikart; Nils Ryman; David A. Tallmon; Michael K. Schwartz; Fred W. Allendorf

2010-01-01

Population census size (NC) and effective population sizes (Ne) are two crucial parameters that influence population viability, wildlife management decisions, and conservation planning. Genetic estimators of both NC and Ne are increasingly widely used because molecular markers are increasingly available, statistical methods are improving rapidly, and genetic estimators...

Matrimonial distance, inbreeding coefficient and population size: Dhangar data.

PubMed

Majumder, P P; Malhotra, K C

1979-01-01

Data on the distance between the birthplaces of spouses (matrimonial distance) were collected from 2,260 married individuals belonging to 21 endogamous castes of the Dhangar (shepherd) cast-cluster of Maharashtra, India. The general form of the distribution of matrimonial distances is one which is extremely positively skewed and leptokurtic. The percentage of intra-village marriages generally decreases from the southern areas of Maharashtra to the northern areas of the state, as does the inbreeding coefficient. This situation is in conformity with the socio-cultural norms regulating matrimonial choice in south and north India. An attempt has been made to relate the degree of inbreeding to the mean matrimonial distance and population size. The mean matrimonial distance is more useful in predicting the degree of inbreeding than population size.

Resource Allocation and Seed Size Selection in Perennial Plants under Pollen Limitation.

PubMed

Huang, Qiaoqiao; Burd, Martin; Fan, Zhiwei

2017-09-01

Pollen limitation may affect resource allocation patterns in plants, but its role in the selection of seed size is not known. Using an evolutionarily stable strategy model of resource allocation in perennial iteroparous plants, we show that under density-independent population growth, pollen limitation (i.e., a reduction in ovule fertilization rate) should increase the optimal seed size. At any level of pollen limitation (including none), the optimal seed size maximizes the ratio of juvenile survival rate to the resource investment needed to produce one seed (including both ovule production and seed provisioning); that is, the optimum maximizes the fitness effect per unit cost. Seed investment may affect allocation to postbreeding adult survival. In our model, pollen limitation increases individual seed size but decreases overall reproductive allocation, so that pollen limitation should also increase the optimal allocation to postbreeding adult survival. Under density-dependent population growth, the optimal seed size is inversely proportional to ovule fertilization rate. However, pollen limitation does not affect the optimal allocation to postbreeding adult survival and ovule production. These results highlight the importance of allocation trade-offs in the effect pollen limitation has on the ecology and evolution of seed size and postbreeding adult survival in perennial plants.

Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies.

PubMed

Palacios, Julia A; Minin, Vladimir N

2013-03-01

Changes in population size influence genetic diversity of the population and, as a result, leave a signature of these changes in individual genomes in the population. We are interested in the inverse problem of reconstructing past population dynamics from genomic data. We start with a standard framework based on the coalescent, a stochastic process that generates genealogies connecting randomly sampled individuals from the population of interest. These genealogies serve as a glue between the population demographic history and genomic sequences. It turns out that only the times of genealogical lineage coalescences contain information about population size dynamics. Viewing these coalescent times as a point process, estimating population size trajectories is equivalent to estimating a conditional intensity of this point process. Therefore, our inverse problem is similar to estimating an inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity function. We demonstrate how recent advances in Gaussian process-based nonparametric inference for Poisson processes can be extended to Bayesian nonparametric estimation of population size dynamics under the coalescent. We compare our Gaussian process (GP) approach to one of the state-of-the-art Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) methods for estimating population trajectories. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that our method has better accuracy and precision. Next, we analyze two genealogies reconstructed from real sequences of hepatitis C and human Influenza A viruses. In both cases, we recover more believed aspects of the viral demographic histories than the GMRF approach. We also find that our GP method produces more reasonable uncertainty estimates than the GMRF method. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-01-01

1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). 2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. 3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. 4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. 5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-07-01

The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more

Bacterial finite-size effects for population expansion under flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toschi, Federico; Tesser, Francesca; Zeegers, Jos C. H.; Clercx, Herman J. H.; Brunsveld, Luc

2016-11-01

For organisms living in a liquid ecosystem, flow and flow gradients have a dual role as they transport nutrient while, at the same time, dispersing the individuals. In absence of flow and under homogeneous conditions, the growth of a population towards an empty region is usually described by a reaction-diffusion equation. The effect of fluid flow is not yet well understood and the interplay between transport of individuals and growth opens a wide scenario of possible behaviors. In this work, we study experimentally the dynamics of non-motile E. coli bacteria colonies spreading inside rectangular channels, in PDMS microfluidic devices. By use of a fluorescent microscope we analyze the dynamics of the population density subjected to different co- and counter-flow conditions and shear rates. A simple model incorporating growth, dispersion and drift of finite size beads is able to explain the experimental findings. This indicates that models based on the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov equation (FKPP) may have to be supplemented with bacterial finite-size effects in order to be able to accurately reproduce experimental results for population spatial growth.

The effect of life-history variation on the population size structure of a rocky intertidal snail ( Littorina sitkana)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochette, Rémy; Dunmall, Karen; Dill, Lawrence M.

2003-03-01

On wave-sheltered shores of the northeastern Pacific, the population size structure of Littorina sitkana varies with intertidal height, as larger snails are mostly found only in the upper intertidal. This pattern has been attributed to high predation rates by crabs (and perhaps fish) on large snails inhabiting low-intertidal areas; i.e., large snails are presumed to be rare there simply because predators kill them. In this study we investigate the hypothesis that predation contributes to the shore-level size gradient displayed by L. sitkana by selecting for (or inducing) earlier sexual maturation and reduced somatic growth in low-shore snails relative to high-shore individuals. In the first part of our study, we carried out laboratory dissections, field experiments (mark-release-recapture and caging), and field surveys on a wave-protected shore in Bamfield Inlet, Barkley Sound (British Columbia, Canada). The principal results were: (1) adult survivorship was greater at higher, than at lower, intertidal level, (2) snails displayed a preference for their shore level of origin, (3) immature adults from the high intertidal displayed greater rates of somatic growth relative to immature adults from the low intertidal, and (4) low-shore snails matured at a smaller size than high-shore individuals. In the second part of the study, a large-scale survey showed intra-specific variation in size at sexual maturity (point 4 above) to be relatively consistent over time (winter of 1999 and 2001 for snails from our main study site) and space (13 different sites in winter 2001), although the magnitude of these differences varied greatly from shore to shore. Our results indicate that L. sitkana individuals inhabiting upper and lower parts of their intertidal range allocate resources differently to somatic and gonadal growth, an intra-specific difference that is best interpreted as a response to spatial and size-dependent variation in predation pressure. Taken together, results of

Randomized Controlled Trial of the ShangRing for Adult Medical Male Circumcision: Safety, Effectiveness, and Acceptability of Using 7 Versus 14 Device Sizes.

PubMed

Feldblum, Paul J; Zulu, Robert; Linyama, David; Long, Sarah; Nonde, Thikazi Jere; Lai, Jaim Jou; Kashitala, Joshua; Veena, Valentine; Kasonde, Prisca

2016-06-01

To assess the safety, effectiveness, and acceptability of providing a reduced number of ShangRing sizes for adult voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) within routine service delivery in Lusaka, Zambia. We conducted a randomized controlled trial and enrolled 500 HIV-negative men aged 18-49 years at 3 clinics. Participants were randomized to 1 of 2 study arms (Standard Sizing arm vs Modified Sizing arm) in a 1:1 ratio. All 14 adult ShangRing sizes (40-26 mm inner diameter, each varying by 1 mm) were available in the Standard Sizing arm; the Modified Sizing arm used every other size (40, 38, 36, 34, 32, 30, 28 mm inner diameter). Each participant was scheduled for 2 follow-up visits: the removal visit (day 7 after placement) and the healing check visit (day 42 after placement), when they were evaluated for adverse events (AEs), pain, and healing. Four hundred and ninety-six men comprised the analysis population, with 255 in the Standard Sizing arm and 241 in the Modified Sizing arm. Three men experienced a moderate or severe AEs (0.6%), including 2 in the Standard Sizing arm (0.8%) and 1 in the Modified Sizing arm (0.4%). 73.2% of participants were completely healed at the scheduled day 42 healing check visit, with similar percentages across study arms. Virtually all (99.6%) men, regardless of study arm, stated that they were very satisfied or satisfied with the appearance of their circumcised penis, and 98.6% stated that they would recommend ShangRing circumcision to family/friends. The moderate/severe AE rate was low and similar in the 2 study arms, suggesting that provision of one-half the number of adult device sizes is sufficient for safe service delivery. Effectiveness, time to healing, and acceptability were similar in the study arms. The simplicity of the ShangRing technique, and its relative speed, could facilitate VMMC program goals. In addition, sufficiency of fewer device sizes would simplify logistics and inventory.

Slow-fast stochastic diffusion dynamics and quasi-stationarity for diploid populations with varying size.

PubMed

Coron, Camille

2016-01-01

We are interested in the long-time behavior of a diploid population with sexual reproduction and randomly varying population size, characterized by its genotype composition at one bi-allelic locus. The population is modeled by a 3-dimensional birth-and-death process with competition, weak cooperation and Mendelian reproduction. This stochastic process is indexed by a scaling parameter K that goes to infinity, following a large population assumption. When the individual birth and natural death rates are of order K, the sequence of stochastic processes indexed by K converges toward a new slow-fast dynamics with variable population size. We indeed prove the convergence toward 0 of a fast variable giving the deviation of the population from quasi Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, while the sequence of slow variables giving the respective numbers of occurrences of each allele converges toward a 2-dimensional diffusion process that reaches (0,0) almost surely in finite time. The population size and the proportion of a given allele converge toward a Wright-Fisher diffusion with stochastically varying population size and diploid selection. We insist on differences between haploid and diploid populations due to population size stochastic variability. Using a non trivial change of variables, we study the absorption of this diffusion and its long time behavior conditioned on non-extinction. In particular we prove that this diffusion starting from any non-trivial state and conditioned on not hitting (0,0) admits a unique quasi-stationary distribution. We give numerical approximations of this quasi-stationary behavior in three biologically relevant cases: neutrality, overdominance, and separate niches.

Causes of intraspecific variation in body size among trematode metacercariae.

PubMed

Saldanha, I; Leung, T L F; Poulin, R

2009-09-01

Inequalities in body size among adult helminths can result in inequalities in reproductive output, with consequences for population dynamics and genetics. These inequalities can result from growth differences among larval worms inside intermediate hosts that persist into the adult stage. Here, we investigate the effects of both host body size and intensity of infection on the sizes of metacercariae of the trematode Maritrema novaezealandensis (Microphallidae) inside their second intermediate host, the isopod Paridotea ungulata (Idoteidae). Among the more than 1500 metacercariae recovered and individually measured, there was no relationship between the mean diameter of metacercarial cysts per isopod and isopod body length. However, intensity of infection correlated negatively with the mean diameter of cysts within an isopod, i.e. metacercariae in crowded infections attained smaller sizes on average. In contrast, the variability in cyst sizes per isopod, measured as the coefficient of variation, was independent of both isopod body length and infection intensity. Our results show that a disproportionate number of relatively small metacercariae come from the relatively few hosts in which a large fraction of all metacercariae are aggregated. The combination of aggregation and intensity-dependent growth generates inequalities in sizes among metacercariae that will be passed on to adult worm populations in definitive hosts.

Secular trends in reported portion size of food and beverages consumed by Irish adults.

PubMed

O'Brien, Sinead A; Livingstone, M Barbara E; McNulty, Breige A; Lyons, Jacqueline; Walton, Janette; Flynn, Albert; Segurado, Ricardo; Dean, Moira; Spence, Michelle; McCaffrey, Tracy A; Pourshahidi, L Kirsty; Nugent, Anne P; Gibney, Eileen R

2015-04-14

The present analysis aimed to investigate the changes in the reported portion sizes (PS) of foods and beverages commonly consumed by Irish adults (18-64 years) from the North South Ireland Food Consumption Survey (NSIFCS) (1997-2001) and the National Adult Nutrition Survey (NANS) (2008-10). Food PS, which are defined as the weight of food (g) consumed per eating occasion, were calculated for comparable foods and beverages in two nationally representative cross-sectional Irish food consumption surveys and were published in NSIFCS and NANS. Repeated measure mixed model analysis compared reported food PS at the total population level as well as subdivided by sex, age, BMI and social class. A total of thirteen commonly consumed foods were examined. The analysis demonstrated that PS significantly increased for five foods ('white sliced bread', 'brown/wholemeal breads', 'all meat, cooked', 'poultry, roasted' and 'milk'), significantly decreased for three ('potatoes', 'chips/wedges' and 'ham, sliced') and did not significantly change for five foods ('processed potato products', 'bacon/ham', 'cheese', 'yogurt' and 'butter/spreads') between the NSIFCS and the NANS. The present study demonstrates that there was considerable variation in the trends in reported food PS over this period.

Prevalence of Cancer in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease Compared With the General Population.

PubMed

Gurvitz, Michelle; Ionescu-Ittu, Raluca; Guo, Liming; Eisenberg, Mark J; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Pilote, Louise; Marelli, Ariane J

2016-12-01

The prevalence rate of cancer among adult patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) in North America has not been previously described. The Quebec adult CHD database was used to determine the prevalence rate of cancer among adult patients with CHD measured as the number of adults with CHD and cancer alive in 2005 per 1,000 adults with CHD. This prevalence rate was compared with the prevalence rate of cancer in the general population of adults in Canada. Types of cancer among the CHD group were described by gender and age. Adult patients with CHD had a 1.6 to 2 times higher prevalence of cancer at 2, 5, and 10 years for both men and women. Overall, men had a greater prevalence of total cancers in all-time durations than did women. Breast, colon, and prostate cancer were the most common cancers reported in adults with CHD. In conclusion, we observed an increased prevalence of cancer among the adult CHD population of Quebec compared with the general Canadian population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of psychotic symptoms among older adults in an Asian population.

PubMed

Subramaniam, Mythily; Abdin, Edimansyah; Vaingankar, Janhavi; Picco, Louisa; Shahwan, Shazana; Jeyagurunathan, Anitha; Zhang, Yunjue; Verma, Swapna; Chong, Siow Ann

2016-07-01

Psychotic symptoms are common among older adults and are seen in a wide range of conditions. Most studies examining the prevalence and correlates of psychotic symptoms among older adults have been conducted in Western populations. To address this gap the current study was undertaken to establish the prevalence and correlates of psychotic symptoms and paranoid ideation within a community sample of older adults without dementia in an Asian population. The Well-being of the Singapore Elderly (WiSE) study was a comprehensive single phase, cross-sectional survey. All respondents were assessed using the Geriatric Mental State examination (GMS). Specific questions of the GMS were then used to establish the prevalence of hallucinations and persecutory delusions. A total of 2,565 respondents completed the study giving a response rate of 65.6%. The prevalence of any psychotic symptoms in this population of older adults was 5.2%. The odds of hallucinations and any psychotic symptoms were significantly higher among those of Malay ethnicity, and those who had no formal education. Older adults aged 75-84 years were significantly associated with lower odds of having hallucinations (vs. older adult aged 60-74 years), while homemaker status was significantly associated with lower odds of having any psychotic symptoms. The prevalence of psychotic symptoms among older Asian adults without dementia was higher than that reported from Western countries. Psychotic symptoms were associated with Malay ethnicity, poor cognitive performance and fewer years of schooling, visual and hearing impairment as well as depression and irritability.

[The Prevalence of Current Depressive Symptoms in an Urban Adult Population].

PubMed

Luck, Tobias; Then, Francisca S; Engel, Christoph; Loeffler, Markus; Thiery, Joachim; Villringer, Arno; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G

2017-04-01

Objective We sought to provide prevalence rates of depressive symptoms in the adult population of the city of Leipzig, Germany (18 - 79 years; N = 8,861). Methods Data were derived from the Leipzig population-based study of adults (LIFE-ADULT-Study). The German version of the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) was used to assess depressive symptoms using a cut-off score ≥ 23 points. Results The prevalence of current depressive symptoms was 6.4 % (95 %-KI = 5.4 - 7.4). Significantly higher prevalence rates were found in females than in males, in individuals in middle age (40 - 59 years) than in younger and older adults as well as in those individuals with lower socioeconomic status (SES). Conclusion The study findings did not indicate a generally increased risk of depressive symptoms in urban-living adults. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Body size and lean mass of brown bears across and within four diverse ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hilderbrand, Grant V.; Gustine, David; Mangipane, Buck A.; Joly, Kyle; Leacock, William; Mangipane, Lindsey S.; Erlenbach, Joy; Sorum, Mathew; Cameron, Matthew; Belant, Jerrold L.; Cambier, Troy

2018-01-01

Variation in body size across populations of brown bears (Ursus arctos) is largely a function of the availability and quality of nutritional resources while plasticity within populations reflects utilized niche width with implications for population resiliency. We assessed skull size, body length, and lean mass of adult female and male brown bears in four Alaskan study areas that differed in climate, primary food resources, population density, and harvest regime. Full body-frame size, as evidenced by asymptotic skull size and body length, was achieved by 8 to 14 years of age across populations and sexes. Lean body mass of both sexes continued to increase throughout their life. Differences between populations existed for all morphological measures in both sexes, bears in ecosystems with abundant salmon were generally larger. Within all populations, broad variation was seen in body size measures of adults with females displaying roughly a 2-fold difference in lean mass and males showing a 3- to 4-fold difference. The high level of intraspecific variation seen across and within populations suggests the presence of multiple life-history strategies and niche variation relative to resource partitioning, risk tolerance or aversion, and competition. Further, this level of variation indicates broad potential to adapt to changes within a given ecosystem and across the species’ range.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data.

PubMed

Jewett, Ethan M; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S

2016-11-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright-Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations

PubMed Central

Anufriieva, Elena V.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

2014-01-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, asignificant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuatedbetween 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the paritiesof these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales. PMID:24668656

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations.

PubMed

Anufriieva, Elena V; Shadrin, Nickolai V

2014-03-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, a significant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuated between 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the parities of these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales.

Size & Flow: Adult Education Issues in the Senate Immigration Bill

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Garrett; Spangenberg, Gail

2014-01-01

In this essay Garrett Murphy and Gail Spangenberg report on the need for understanding better than in the past, the number of undocumented immigrants likely to need adult education services under provisions of Senate Immigration Bill S.744. The essay looks at why the issues of "size and flow" are important for planners, providers, and…

Population size, survival, growth, and movements of Rana sierrae

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A. W.; Halstead, Brian J.; Link, William

2013-01-01

Based on 2431 captures of 757 individual frogs over a 9-yr period, we found that the population of R. sierrae in one meadow–stream complex in Yosemite National Park ranged from an estimated 45 to 115 adult frogs. Rana sierrae at our relatively low elevation site (2200 m) grew at a fast rate (K = 0.73–0.78), had high overwintering survival rates (44.6–95%), lived a long time (up to 16 yr), and tended to be fairly sedentary during the summer (100% minimum convex polygon annual home ranges of 139 m2) but had low year-to-year site fidelity. Even though the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) has been present in the population for at least 13 yr, there was no clear downward trend as might be expected from reports of R. sierrae population declines associated with Bd or from reports of widespread population decline of R. sierrae throughout its range.

Dynamic size responses to climate change: prevailing effects of rising temperature drive long-term body size increases in a semi-arid passerine.

PubMed

Gardner, Janet L; Amano, Tatsuya; Mackey, Brendan G; Sutherland, William J; Clayton, Mark; Peters, Anne

2014-07-01

Changes in animal body size have been widely reported as a correlate of contemporary climate change. Body size affects metabolism and fitness, so changing size has implications for resilience, yet the climatic factors that drive size variation remain poorly understood. We test the role of mean and extreme temperature, rainfall, and remotely sensed primary productivity (NDVI) as drivers of body size in a sedentary, semi-arid Australian passerine, Ptilotula (Lichenostomus)penicillatus, over 23 years. To distinguish effects due to differential growth from changes in population composition, we analysed first-year birds and adults separately and considered climatic variation at three temporal scales (current, previous, and preceding 5 years). The strongest effects related to temperature: in both age classes, larger size was associated with warmer mean temperatures in the previous year, contrary to Bergmann's Rule. Moreover, adults were larger in warmer breeding seasons, while first years was larger after heat waves; these effects are more likely to be mediated through size-dependent mortality, highlighting the role of body size in determining vulnerability to extinction. In addition to temperature, larger adult size was associated with lower primary productivity, which may reflect a trade-off between vegetative growth and nectar production, on which adults rely. Finally, lower rainfall was associated with decreasing size in first year and adults, most likely related to decreased food availability. Overall,body size increased over 23 years, strongly in first-year birds (2.7%) compared with adults (1%), with size outcomes a balance between competing drivers. As rainfall declined over time and productivity remained fairly stable, the temporal increase in body size appears largely driven by rising mean temperature and temperature extremes. Body size responses to environmental change are thus complex and dynamic, driven by effects on growth as well as mortality.

Statistical Physics of Population Genetics in the Low Population Size Limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atwal, Gurinder

The understanding of evolutionary processes lends itself naturally to theory and computation, and the entire field of population genetics has benefited greatly from the influx of methods from applied mathematics for decades. However, in spite of all this effort, there are a number of key dynamical models of evolution that have resisted analytical treatment. In addition, modern DNA sequencing technologies have magnified the amount of genetic data available, revealing an excess of rare genetic variants in human genomes, challenging the predictions of conventional theory. Here I will show that methods from statistical physics can be used to model the distribution of genetic variants, incorporating selection and spatial degrees of freedom. In particular, a functional path-integral formulation of the Wright-Fisher process maps exactly to the dynamics of a particle in an effective potential, beyond the mean field approximation. In the small population size limit, the dynamics are dominated by instanton-like solutions which determine the probability of fixation in short timescales. These results are directly relevant for understanding the unusual genetic variant distribution at moving frontiers of populations.

Population properties affect inbreeding avoidance in moose

PubMed Central

Herfindal, Ivar; Haanes, Hallvard; Røed, Knut H.; Solberg, Erling J.; Markussen, Stine S.; Heim, Morten; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2014-01-01

Mechanisms reducing inbreeding are thought to have evolved owing to fitness costs of breeding with close relatives. In small and isolated populations, or populations with skewed age- or sex distributions, mate choice becomes limited, and inbreeding avoidance mechanisms ineffective. We used a unique individual-based dataset on moose from a small island in Norway to assess whether inbreeding avoidance was related to population structure and size, expecting inbreeding avoidance to be greater in years with larger populations and even adult sex ratios. The probability that a potential mating event was realized was negatively related to the inbreeding coefficient of the potential offspring, with a stronger relationship in years with a higher proportion or number of males in the population. Thus, adult sex ratio and population size affect the degree of inbreeding avoidance. Consequently, conservation managers should aim for sex ratios that facilitate inbreeding avoidance, especially in small and isolated populations. PMID:25540152

Population properties affect inbreeding avoidance in moose.

PubMed

Herfindal, Ivar; Haanes, Hallvard; Røed, Knut H; Solberg, Erling J; Markussen, Stine S; Heim, Morten; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2014-12-01

Mechanisms reducing inbreeding are thought to have evolved owing to fitness costs of breeding with close relatives. In small and isolated populations, or populations with skewed age- or sex distributions, mate choice becomes limited, and inbreeding avoidance mechanisms ineffective. We used a unique individual-based dataset on moose from a small island in Norway to assess whether inbreeding avoidance was related to population structure and size, expecting inbreeding avoidance to be greater in years with larger populations and even adult sex ratios. The probability that a potential mating event was realized was negatively related to the inbreeding coefficient of the potential offspring, with a stronger relationship in years with a higher proportion or number of males in the population. Thus, adult sex ratio and population size affect the degree of inbreeding avoidance. Consequently, conservation managers should aim for sex ratios that facilitate inbreeding avoidance, especially in small and isolated populations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Inter-annual variability in spring abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus from the overwintering population in the southeastern Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, Nicolas; Bagøien, Espen; Melle, Webjørn

2017-03-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea, where it plays a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This paper analyses a 17-year time series, 1996-2012, on C. finmarchicus collected within the Atlantic Water mass along the Svinøy transect in the southeastern Norwegian Sea. We use the spring abundance of adult as a proxy for the size of C. finmarchicus' overwintered population. The inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus in the 200-0 m depth-stratum is assessed while accounting for spring population development to the adult stage represented by day of year for sampling, inter-annual changes in timing of population development, and spatial differences. For the most oceanic stations, a significant inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus was revealed using generalized additive models (GAM). This trend primarily consists in an increase prior to year 2000 and a decrease between years 2000 and ca. 2011. For the stations closer to the coast, the identified inter-annual trend is a decrease during a longer period from the late 90s until ca. 2011. From 2000 to 2011, our estimates suggest a 50% decrease for the most oceanic stations, and as much as an 81% decrease for the stations closer to the coast. In addition the results suggest a consistent change in phenology over the years and the stations. The predicted spring peak of overwintered adult population abundance is suggested to become shorter by 3 days, and the predicted maximum of abundance to take place 4 days earlier over the 17 years of the time-series. The results highlight significant changes in intensity and timing of the overwintered population of a key zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea that may have important implications on the scale of an entire ecosystem.

Population size vs. social connectedness - A gene-culture coevolutionary approach to cumulative cultural evolution.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Wakano, Joe Y

2016-10-01

It has long been debated if population size is a crucial determinant of the level of culture. While empirical results are mixed, recent theoretical studies suggest that social connectedness between people may be a more important factor than the size of the entire population. These models, however, do not take into account evolutionary responses of learning strategies determining the mode of transmission and innovation and are hence not suitable for predicting the long-term implications of parameters of interest. In the present paper, to address this issue, we provide a gene-culture coevolution model, in which the microscopic learning process of each individual is explicitly described as a continuous-time stochastic process and time allocation to social and individual learning is allowed to evolve. We have found that social connectedness has a larger impact on the equilibrium level of culture than population size especially when connectedness is weak and population size is large. This result, combined with those of previous culture-only models, points to the importance of studying separate effects of population size and internal social structure to better understand spatiotemporal variation in the level of culture. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Status and trends of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Harris, Alta C.

2015-10-02

Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, especially for shortnose suckers. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Nautilus at Risk – Estimating Population Size and Demography of Nautilus pompilius

PubMed Central

Dunstan, Andrew; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Marshall, Justin

2011-01-01

The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia). We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6–77.4 km−2) dominated by males (83∶17 male∶female) and comprised of few juveniles (<10%).These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide. PMID:21347360

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

PubMed

Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

2008-08-28

Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

Changes in Typical Portion Sizes of Commonly Consumed Discretionary Foods among Australian Adults from 1995 to 2011–2012

PubMed Central

Zheng, Miaobing; Rangan, Anna; Meertens, Beth; Wu, Jason H. Y.

2017-01-01

This study aimed to examine the changes in typical portion sizes of commonly consumed discretionary foods among Australian adults from 1995 to 2011–2012. Data of adults (age ≥19 years) from the 1995 Australian National Nutrition Survey and 2011–2012 National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey were used. Typical portion sizes (median portion) of fourteen discretionary foods that contributed the most to energy intake were determined. Ten out of fourteen food categories demonstrated a significant change in kJ per typical portion from 1995 to 2011–2012 (p ≤ 0.001). kJ per typical portion increased for pizza, cake, sausage, cereal bar, processed meat, ice cream and wine, with pizza and cake demonstrating the largest increases (+570 kJ and +950 kJ in 2011–2012, respectively; both +66% above 1995). In contrast, kJ per typical portion of pastry, snack food and potato fries decreased by 10–40% over time, and did not change for biscuit, chocolate, sugar-sweetened beverage and beer. Similar changes were observed for grams per typical portion consumed. Temporal trends in typical portion sizes were similar according to age group, gender and socioeconomic status. The findings suggest that population-wide strategies that enable consumers to choose smaller portions of discretionary foods are needed to reduce the excess consumption of these products. PMID:28587276

The effect of habitat patch size on small mammal populations

Treesearch

Mark D. Yates; Susan C. Loeb; David C. Guynn

1997-01-01

Habitat fragmentation is one of the greatest threats to the conservation of bio­diversity and has 3 components: habitat loss, patch isolation, and patch size. The authors tested the effects of forest-clearing size on small mammal populations in the Upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina. These clearings act as islands for many species of small mam­mals, particularly old...

Metabolic syndrome prevalence among Northern Mexican adult population.

PubMed

Salas, Rogelio; Bibiloni, Maria del Mar; Ramos, Esteban; Villarreal, Jesús Z; Pons, Antoni; Tur, Josep A; Sureda, Antoni

2014-01-01

Dietary habits in the Mexican population have changed dramatically over the last few years, which are reflected in increased overweight and obesity prevalence. The aim was to examine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and associated risk factors in Northern Mexican adults aged ≥ 16 years. The study was a population-based cross-sectional nutritional survey carried out in the State of Nuevo León, Mexico. The study included a sub-sample of 1,200 subjects aged 16 and over who took part in the State Survey of Nutrition and Health-Nuevo León 2011/2012. Anthropometric measurements, physical activity, blood pressure and fasting blood tests for biochemical analysis were obtained from all subjects. The prevalence of MetS in Mexican adults aged ≥ 16 years was 54.8%, reaching 73.8% in obese subjects. This prevalence was higher in women (60.4%) than in men (48.9%) and increased with age in both genders. Multivariate analyses showed no evident relation between MetS components and the level of physical activity. Obese adults, mainly women, are particularly at risk of developing MetS, with the associated implications for their health. The increasing prevalence of MetS highlights the need for developing strategies for its early detection and prevention.

Demographic Trends of Adults in New York City Opioid Treatment Programs--An Aging Population.

PubMed

Han, Benjamin; Polydorou, Soteri; Ferris, Rosie; Blaum, Caroline S; Ross, Stephen; McNeely, Jennifer

2015-01-01

The population of adults accessing opioid treatment is growing older, but exact estimates vary widely, and little is known about the characteristics of the aging treatment population. Further, there has been little research regarding the epidemiology, healt h status, and functional impairments in this population. To determine the utilization of opioid treatment services by older adults in New York City. This study used administrative data from New York State licensed drug treatment programs to examine overall age trends and characteristics of older adults in opioid treatment programs in New York City from 1996 to 2012. We found significant increases in utilization of opioid treatment programs by older adults in New York City. By 2012, those aged 50-59 made up the largest age group in opioid treatment programs. Among older adults there were notable shifts in demographic background including gender and ethnicity, and an increase in self-reported impairments. More research is needed to fully understand the specific characteristics and needs of older adults with opioid dependence.

Determining population size of territorial red-winged blackbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albers, P.H.

1976-01-01

Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

Population Variation Reveals Independent Selection toward Small Body Size in Chinese Debao Pony

PubMed Central

Kader, Adiljan; Li, Yan; Dong, Kunzhe; Irwin, David M.; Zhao, Qianjun; He, Xiaohong; Liu, Jianfeng; Pu, Yabin; Gorkhali, Neena Amatya; Liu, Xuexue; Jiang, Lin; Li, Xiangchen; Guan, Weijun; Zhang, Yaping; Wu, Dong-Dong; Ma, Yuehui

2016-01-01

Body size, one of the most important quantitative traits under evolutionary scrutiny, varies considerably among species and among populations within species. Revealing the genetic basis underlying this variation is very important, particularly in humans where there is a close relationship with diseases and in domestic animals as the selective patterns are associated with improvements in production traits. The Debao pony is a horse breed with small body size that is unique to China; however, it is unknown whether the size-related candidate genes identified in Western breeds also account for the small body size of the Debao pony. Here, we compared individual horses from the Debao population with other two Chinese horse populations using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified with the Equine SNP 65 Bead Chip. The previously reported size-related candidate gene HMGA2 showed a significant signature for selection, consistent with its role observed in human populations. More interestingly, we found a candidate gene TBX3, which had not been observed in previous studies on horse body size that displayed the highest differentiation and most significant association, and thus likely is the dominating factor for the small stature of the Debao pony. Further comparison between the Debao pony and other breeds of horses from around the world demonstrated that TBX3 was selected independently in the Debao pony, suggesting that there were multiple origins of small stature in the horse. PMID:26637467

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

PubMed

Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

2007-04-01

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

Population size, center-periphery, and seed dispersers' effects on the genetic diversity and population structure of the Mediterranean relict shrub Cneorum tricoccon.

PubMed

Lázaro-Nogal, Ana; Matesanz, Silvia; García-Fernández, Alfredo; Traveset, Anna; Valladares, Fernando

2017-09-01

The effect of population size on population genetic diversity and structure has rarely been studied jointly with other factors such as the position of a population within the species' distribution range or the presence of mutualistic partners influencing dispersal. Understanding these determining factors for genetic variation is critical for conservation of relict plants that are generally suffering from genetic deterioration. Working with 16 populations of the vulnerable relict shrub Cneorum tricoccon throughout the majority of its western Mediterranean distribution range, and using nine polymorphic microsatellite markers, we examined the effects of periphery (peripheral vs. central), population size (large vs. small), and seed disperser (introduced carnivores vs. endemic lizards) on the genetic diversity and population structure of the species. Contrasting genetic variation ( H E : 0.04-0.476) was found across populations. Peripheral populations showed lower genetic diversity, but this was dependent on population size. Large peripheral populations showed high levels of genetic diversity, whereas small central populations were less diverse. Significant isolation by distance was detected, indicating that the effect of long-distance gene flow is limited relative to that of genetic drift, probably due to high selfing rates ( F IS  = 0.155-0.887), restricted pollen flow, and ineffective seed dispersal. Bayesian clustering also supported the strong population differentiation and highly fragmented structure. Contrary to expectations, the type of disperser showed no significant effect on either population genetic diversity or structure. Our results challenge the idea of an effect of periphery per se that can be mainly explained by population size, drawing attention to the need of integrative approaches considering different determinants of genetic variation. Furthermore, the very low genetic diversity observed in several small populations and the strong among-population

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

PubMed

Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Trends in cigarette smoking among adults with HIV compared with the general adult population, United States - 2009-2014.

PubMed

Frazier, Emma L; Sutton, Madeline Y; Brooks, John T; Shouse, R Luke; Weiser, John

2018-06-01

Smoking increases HIV-related and non-HIV-related morbidity and mortality for persons with HIV infection. We estimated changes in cigarette smoking among adults with HIV and adults in the general U.S. population from 2009 to 2014 to inform HIV smoking cessation programs. Among HIV-positive adults, rates of current smoking declined from 37.6% (confidence interval [CI]: 34.7-40.6) in 2009 to 33.6% (CI: 29.8-37.8) in 2014. Current smoking among U.S. adults declined from 20.6% (CI: 19.9-21.3) in 2009 to 16.8% (CI: 16.2-17.4) in 2014. HIV-positive adults in care were significantly more likely to be current smokers compared with the general U.S. population; they were also less likely to quit smoking. For both HIV-positive adults in care and the general population, disparities were noted by racial/ethnic, educational level, and poverty-level subgroups. For most years, non-Hispanic blacks, those with less than high school education, and those living below poverty level were more likely to be current smokers and less likely to quit smoking compared with non-Hispanic whites, those with greater than high school education, and those living above poverty level, respectively. To decrease smoking-related causes of illness and death and to decrease HIV-related disparities, smoking cessation interventions are vital as part of routine care with HIV-positive persons. Clinicians who care for HIV-positive persons who smoke should utilize opportunities to discuss and implement smoking cessation strategies during routine clinical visits. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Change in genetic size of small-closed populations: Lessons from a domestic mammal population.

PubMed

Ghafouri-Kesbi, Farhad

2010-10-01

The aim of this study was to monitor changes in genetic size of a small-closed population of Iranian Zandi sheep, by using pedigree information from animals born between 1991 and 2005. The genetic size was assessed by using measures based on the probability of identity-by-descend of genes (coancestry, f, and effective population size, N(e) ), as well as measures based on probability of gene origin (effective number of founders, f(e) , effective number of founder genomes, f(g) , and effective number of non-founder genomes, f(ne) ). Average coancestry, or the degree of genetic similarity of individuals, increased from 0.81% to 1.44% during the period 1993 to 2005, at the same time that N(e) decreased from 263 to 93. The observed trend for f(e) was irregular throughout the experiment in a way that f(e) was 68, 87, 77, 92, and 80 in 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, and 2005, respectively. Simultaneously, f(g) , the most informative effective number, decreased from 61 to 35. The index of genetic diversity (GD) which was obtained from estimates of f(g) , decreased about 2% throughout the period studied. In addition, a noticeable reduction was observed in the estimates of f(ne) from 595 in 1993 to 61 in 2005. The higher than 1 ratio of f(e) to f(g) indicated the presence of bottlenecks and genetic drift in the development of this population of Zandi sheep. From 1993 to 1999, f(ne) was much higher than f(e) , thereby indicating that with respect to loss of genetic diversity, the unequal contribution of founders was more important than the random genetic drift in non-founder generations. Subsequently, random genetic drift in non-founder generations was the major reason for f(e) > f(ne) . The minimization of average coancestry in new reproductive individuals was recommended as a means of preserving the population against a further loss in genetic diversity.

Sampling strategies for estimating brook trout effective population size

Treesearch

Andrew R. Whiteley; Jason A. Coombs; Mark Hudy; Zachary Robinson; Keith H. Nislow; Benjamin H. Letcher

2012-01-01

The influence of sampling strategy on estimates of effective population size (Ne) from single-sample genetic methods has not been rigorously examined, though these methods are increasingly used. For headwater salmonids, spatially close kin association among age-0 individuals suggests that sampling strategy (number of individuals and location from...

Population dynamics and angler exploitation of the unique muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

2007-01-01

A unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabits Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. Little is known about its status, dynamics, and angler exploitation, and there is concern for the long-term viability of this population. We used intensive sampling and mark-recapture methods to quantify abundance, survival, growth, condition, age at maturity and fecundity and angler surveys to quantify angler pressure, catch rates, and exploitation. During our study, heavy rain washed out a dam constructed by beavers Castor canadensis which regulates the water level at the lake outlet, resulting in a nearly 50% reduction in surface area. We estimated a population size of 1,120 adult fish at the beginning of the study. No immediate reduction in population size was detected in response to the loss of lake area, although there was a gradual, but significant, decline in population size over the 2-year study. Adults grew less than 50 mm per year, and relative weight (W r) averaged roughly 80. Anglers were successful in catching, on average, two fish during a full day of angling, but harvest was negligible. Shoepack Lake muskellunge exhibit much slower growth rates and lower condition, but much higher densities and angler catch per unit effort (CPUE), than other muskellunge populations. The unique nature, limited distribution, and location of this population in a national park require special consideration for management. The results of this study provide the basis for assessing the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population through simulations of long-term population dynamics and genetically effective population size. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

PubMed

Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

2012-04-01

Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Methods to estimate effective population size using pedigree data: Examples in dog, sheep, cattle and horse

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Effective population sizes of 140 populations (including 60 dog breeds, 40 sheep breeds, 20 cattle breeds and 20 horse breeds) were computed using pedigree information and six different computation methods. Simple demographical information (number of breeding males and females), variance of progeny size, or evolution of identity by descent probabilities based on coancestry or inbreeding were used as well as identity by descent rate between two successive generations or individual identity by descent rate. Results Depending on breed and method, effective population sizes ranged from 15 to 133 056, computation method and interaction between computation method and species showing a significant effect on effective population size (P < 0.0001). On average, methods based on number of breeding males and females and variance of progeny size produced larger values (4425 and 356, respectively), than those based on identity by descent probabilities (average values between 93 and 203). Since breeding practices and genetic substructure within dog breeds increased inbreeding, methods taking into account the evolution of inbreeding produced lower effective population sizes than those taking into account evolution of coancestry. The correlation level between the simplest method (number of breeding males and females, requiring no genealogical information) and the most sophisticated one ranged from 0.44 to 0.60 according to species. Conclusions When choosing a method to compute effective population size, particular attention should be paid to the species and the specific genetic structure of the population studied. PMID:23281913

Metabolic Syndrome Prevalence among Northern Mexican Adult Population

PubMed Central

Salas, Rogelio; Bibiloni, Maria del Mar; Ramos, Esteban; Villarreal, Jesús Z.; Pons, Antoni; Tur, Josep A.; Sureda, Antoni

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Dietary habits in the Mexican population have changed dramatically over the last few years, which are reflected in increased overweight and obesity prevalence. The aim was to examine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and associated risk factors in Northern Mexican adults aged ≥16 years. Methods and Results The study was a population-based cross-sectional nutritional survey carried out in the State of Nuevo León, Mexico. The study included a sub-sample of 1,200 subjects aged 16 and over who took part in the State Survey of Nutrition and Health–Nuevo León 2011/2012. Anthropometric measurements, physical activity, blood pressure and fasting blood tests for biochemical analysis were obtained from all subjects. The prevalence of MetS in Mexican adults aged ≥16 years was 54.8%, reaching 73.8% in obese subjects. This prevalence was higher in women (60.4%) than in men (48.9%) and increased with age in both genders. Multivariate analyses showed no evident relation between MetS components and the level of physical activity. Conclusions Obese adults, mainly women, are particularly at risk of developing MetS, with the associated implications for their health. The increasing prevalence of MetS highlights the need for developing strategies for its early detection and prevention. PMID:25141255

Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population

PubMed Central

Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

2016-01-01

The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5–10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase. PMID:27328654

Mobile elements reveal small population size in the ancient ancestors of Homo sapiens.

PubMed

Huff, Chad D; Xing, Jinchuan; Rogers, Alan R; Witherspoon, David; Jorde, Lynn B

2010-02-02

The genealogies of different genetic loci vary in depth. The deeper the genealogy, the greater the chance that it will include a rare event, such as the insertion of a mobile element. Therefore, the genealogy of a region that contains a mobile element is on average older than that of the rest of the genome. In a simple demographic model, the expected time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) is doubled if a rare insertion is present. We test this expectation by examining single nucleotide polymorphisms around polymorphic Alu insertions from two completely sequenced human genomes. The estimated TMRCA for regions containing a polymorphic insertion is two times larger than the genomic average (P < <10(-30)), as predicted. Because genealogies that contain polymorphic mobile elements are old, they are shaped largely by the forces of ancient population history and are insensitive to recent demographic events, such as bottlenecks and expansions. Remarkably, the information in just two human DNA sequences provides substantial information about ancient human population size. By comparing the likelihood of various demographic models, we estimate that the effective population size of human ancestors living before 1.2 million years ago was 18,500, and we can reject all models where the ancient effective population size was larger than 26,000. This result implies an unusually small population for a species spread across the entire Old World, particularly in light of the effective population sizes of chimpanzees (21,000) and gorillas (25,000), which each inhabit only one part of a single continent.

Body size evolution in an old insect order: No evidence for Cope's Rule in spite of fitness benefits of large size.

PubMed

Waller, John T; Svensson, Erik I

2017-09-01

We integrate field data and phylogenetic comparative analyses to investigate causes of body size evolution and stasis in an old insect order: odonates ("dragonflies and damselflies"). Fossil evidence for "Cope's Rule" in odonates is weak or nonexistent since the last major extinction event 65 million years ago, yet selection studies show consistent positive selection for increased body size among adults. In particular, we find that large males in natural populations of the banded demoiselle (Calopteryx splendens) over several generations have consistent fitness benefits both in terms of survival and mating success. Additionally, there was no evidence for stabilizing or conflicting selection between fitness components within the adult life-stage. This lack of stabilizing selection during the adult life-stage was independently supported by a literature survey on different male and female fitness components from several odonate species. We did detect several significant body size shifts among extant taxa using comparative methods and a large new molecular phylogeny for odonates. We suggest that the lack of Cope's rule in odonates results from conflicting selection between fitness advantages of large adult size and costs of long larval development. We also discuss competing explanations for body size stasis in this insect group. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Diel Variation in Population Size and Ice Nucleation Activity of Pseudomonas syringae on Snap Bean Leaflets.

PubMed

Hirano, S S; Upper, C D

1989-03-01

The extent to which diel changes in the physical environment affect changes in population size and ice nucleation activity of Pseudomonas syringae on snap bean leaflets was determined under field conditions. To estimate bacterial population size and ice nucleation activity, bean leaflets were harvested at 2-h intervals during each of three 26-h periods. A tube nucleation test was used to assay individual leaflets for ice nuclei. Population sizes of P. syringae were determined by dilution plating of leaflet homogenates. The overall diel changes in P. syringae population sizes differed during each of the 26-h periods. In one 26-h period, there was a continuous increase in the logarithm of P. syringae population size despite intense solar radiation, absence of free moisture on leaf surfaces, and low relative humidity during the day. A mean doubling time of approximately 4.9 h was estimated for the 28-fold increase in P. syringae population size that occurred from 0900 to 0900 h during the 26-h period. However, doubling times of 3.3 and 1.9 h occurred briefly during this period from 1700 to 2300 h and from 0100 to 0700 h, respectively. Thus, growth rates of P. syringae in association with leaves in the field were of the same order of magnitude as optimal rates measured in the laboratory. The frequency with which leaflets bore ice nuclei active at -2.0, -2.2, and -2.5 degrees C varied greatly within each 26-h period. These large diel changes were inversely correlated primarily with the diel changes in air temperature and reflected changes in nucleation frequency rather than changes in population size of P. syringae. Thus, the response of bacterial ice nucleation activity to the physical environment was distinct from the changes in population size of ice nucleation-active P. syringae.

Altitudinally divergent adult phenotypes in Iberian wall lizards are not driven by egg differences or hatchling growth rates.

PubMed

Ortega, Jesús; López, Pilar; Martín, José

2015-02-01

The interplay between ecological conditions and life histories has been widely acknowledged in vertebrates, particularly in lizards. Environmental conditions may exert different selective pressures and produce divergent phenotypes even in geographically and genetically close populations. The Iberian wall lizard constitutes a perfect model organism as it is considered a species complex with a complicated evolutionary history. Here, we focus on two proximate populations in which we examined adult morphology and reproductive investment of wild-caught lizards along a 500-m altitudinal gradient with contrasting environmental conditions, where adults show marked morphological differences in spite of being closely related. Also, we performed a common garden experiment to examine embryonic and hatchling growth. We focused on reproductive investment per clutch, incubation time, egg size, morphology and growth rate of hatchlings. Results showed clutch size differences between populations that were independent of the larger body size of highland females. However, there were no egg morphological differences between populations, except for egg width, and this difference disappeared after controlling for female body size. Hatchling lizards from both populations did not differ in morphology. Moreover, we did not observe differences between populations or sexes in hatchling growth. Overall, we provide evidence that the differences in adult body size and clutch size are not driven by size at hatching which is not contributed to by egg size, nor are intrinsic hatchling growth rates associated with the environmental conditions experienced in our common garden experiment, suggesting that adult phenotypes are not the result of intrinsic differences between populations.

Correlation between diet and gut bacteria in a population of young adults.

PubMed

Mayorga Reyes, Lino; González Vázquez, Raquel; Cruz Arroyo, Schahrasad M; Melendez Avalos, Araceli; Reyes Castillo, Pedro A; Chavaro Pérez, David A; Ramos Terrones, Idalia; Ramos Ibáñez, Norma; Rodríguez Magallanes, Magdalena M; Langella, Philippe; Bermúdez Humarán, Luis; Azaola Espinosa, Alejandro

2016-06-01

Dietary habits strongly influence gut microbiota. The aim of this study was to compare and correlated the abundance of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes phyla, some representative bacteria of these phyla such as Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron, Prevotella, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, Clostridium leptum and Bifidobacterium longum as a member of Actinobacteria phylum in young adults with their food intake. Faecal samples used came from lean subjects (BMI = 19.83 ± 0.94 kg/m(2)), overweight (BMI = 27.17 ± 0.51 kg/m(2)) and obese (BMI = 41.33 ± 5.25 kg/m(2)). There were significant differences in total studied gut microbiota between the overweight and lean groups. Members of the Firmicutes phylum, and Bifidobacterium longum, were more abundant in the lean group. The results suggest that diet rich in unsaturated fatty acids and fibre promote an abundant population of beneficial bacteria such as B. longum and Bacteroidetes. However, it has been considered that the results may be biased due to the size of the individuals studied; therefore the results could be only valid for the studied population.

[Variation trend and significance of adult tonsil size and tongue position].

PubMed

Bin, X; Zhou, Y

2016-08-05

Objective: The aim of this study is to explore the changing trend and significance of adult tonsil size and tongue position by observing adults in different age groups. Method: Oropharyngeal cavities of 1 060 adults who undergoing health examination and had no history of tonsil surgery were observed. Friedman tongue position (FTP) and tonsil size (TS) were scored according to Friedman's criteria and results were statistic analyzed to evaluate their changing law and significance. Result: Mean FTP scores increased with age significantly（ P <0.01）; FTP score in male was lower than that in female（ P <0.01）. TS score significantly decreased with age（ P <0.05）.The average score of TS had no statistical significance in different gender. Although there was no statistical significance, total score of FTP show an increasing trend with age（ P >0.05）;Total scores of FTP were different between sexes（male 4.12±0.67，female 4.23±0.68， P <0.05）.BMI was not found to be statistically different when FTP scores, TS scores and total scores changed ( P >0.05); but it showed an increasing trend with age（ P <0.01）. Conclusion: Width of pharyngeal cavity in normal adults is always kept in certain stability, while it proves to be narrower in obese people. TS score and FTP score, which appear the opposite trend with age, can be thought as a major factor to keep a stable width of oral pharyngeal cavity. Copyright© by the Editorial Department of Journal of Clinical Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery.

Estimating the size of key populations at higher risk of HIV infection: a summary of experiences and lessons presented during a technical meeting on size estimation among key populations in Asian countries

PubMed Central

Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia; Zhao, Jinkou; Reddy, Amala; Seguy, Nicole

2014-01-01

Problem Size estimates of key populations at higher risk of HIV exposure are recognized as critical for understanding the trajectory of the HIV epidemic and planning and monitoring an effective response, especially for countries with concentrated and low epidemics such as those in Asia. Context To help countries estimate population sizes of key populations, global guidelines were updated in 2011 to reflect new technical developments and recent field experiences in applying these methods. Action In September 2013, a meeting of programme managers and experts experienced with population size estimates (PSE) for key populations was held for 13 Asian countries. This article summarizes the key results presented, shares practical lessons learnt and reviews the methodological approaches from implementing PSE in 13 countries. Lessons learnt It is important to build capacity to collect, analyse and use PSE data; establish a technical review group; and implement a transparent, well documented process. Countries should adapt global PSE guidelines and maintain operational definitions that are more relevant and useable for country programmes. Development of methods for non-venue-based key populations requires more investment and collaborative efforts between countries and among partners. PMID:25320676

Impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on population size and genetic structure of horse flies in Louisiana marshes

PubMed Central

Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R.; Foil, Lane D.

2016-01-01

The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes. PMID:26755069

Population structure and effective/census population size ratio in threatened three-spined stickleback populations from an isolated river basin in northwest Spain.

PubMed

Pérez-Figueroa, A; Fernández, C; Amaro, R; Hermida, M; San Miguel, E

2015-08-01

Variability at 20 microsatellite loci was examined to assess the population genetic structure, gene flow, and effective population size (N(e)) in three populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from the upper basin of the Miño River in Galicia, NW Spain, where this species is threatened. The three populations showed similar levels of genetic diversity. There is a significant genetic differentiation between the three populations, but also significant gene flow. N(e) estimates based on linkage disequilibrium yielded values of 355 for the Miño River population and 241 and 311 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively, although we expect that these are overestimates. N(e) estimates based on temporal methods, considering gene flow or not, for the tributaries yielded values of 30-56 and 47-56 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively. Estimated census size (N(c)) for the Rato River was 880 individuals. This yielded a N(e)/N(c) estimate of 3-6 % for temporal estimation of N(e), which is within the empirical range observed in freshwater fishes. We suggest that the three populations analyzed have a sufficient level of genetic diversity with some genetic structure. Additionally, the absence of physical barriers suggests that conservation efforts and monitoring should focus in the whole basin as a unit.

Estimates of effective population size and inbreeding in South African indigenous chicken populations: implications for the conservation of unique genetic resources.

PubMed

Mtileni, Bohani; Dzama, Kennedy; Nephawe, Khathutshelo; Rhode, Clint

2016-06-01

Conservation of locally adapted indigenous livestock breeds has become an important objective in sustainable animal breeding, as these breeds represent a unique genetic resource. Therefore, the Agricultural Research Council of South Africa initiated a conservation programme for four South African indigenous chicken breeds. The evaluation and monitoring of the genetic constitution of these conservation flocks is important for proper management of the conservation programme. Using molecular genetic analyses, the effective population sizes and relatedness of these conservation flocks were compared to village (field) chicken populations from which they were derived. Genetic diversity within and between these populations are further discussed within the context of population size. The conservation flocks for the respective breeds had relatively small effective population sizes (point estimate range 38.6-78.6) in comparison to the field populations (point estimate range 118.9-580.0). Furthermore, evidence supports a transient heterozygous excess, generally associated with the occurrence of a recent population bottleneck. Genetic diversity, as measured by the number of alleles, heterozygosity and information index, was also significantly reduced in the conservation flocks. The average relatedness amongst the conservation flocks was high, whilst it remained low for the field populations. There was also significant evidence for population differentiation between field and conservation populations. F st estimates for conservation flocks were moderate to high with a maximum reached between VD_C and VD_F (0.285). However, F st estimates for field population were excessively low between the NN_C and EC_F (0.007) and between EC_F and OV_F (0.009). The significant population differentiation of the conservation flocks from their geographically correlated field populations of origin is further supported by the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), with 10.51 % of genetic

Asian Elephants in China: Estimating Population Size and Evaluating Habitat Suitability

PubMed Central

Zhang, Li; Dong, Lu; Lin, Liu; Feng, Limin; Yan, Fan; Wang, Lanxin; Guo, Xianming; Luo, Aidong

2015-01-01

We monitored the last remaining Asian elephant populations in China over the past decade. Using DNA tools and repeat genotyping, we estimated the population sizes from 654 dung samples collected from various areas. Combined with morphological individual identifications from over 6,300 elephant photographs taken in the wild, we estimated that the total Asian elephant population size in China is between 221 and 245. Population genetic structure and diversity were examined using a 556-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA, and 24 unique haplotypes were detected from DNA analysis of 178 individuals. A phylogenetic analysis revealed two highly divergent clades of Asian elephants, α and β, present in Chinese populations. Four populations (Mengla, Shangyong, Mengyang, and Pu’Er) carried mtDNA from the α clade, and only one population (Nangunhe) carried mtDNA belonging to the β clade. Moreover, high genetic divergence was observed between the Nangunhe population and the other four populations; however, genetic diversity among the five populations was low, possibly due to limited gene flow because of habitat fragmentation. The expansion of rubber plantations, crop cultivation, and villages along rivers and roads had caused extensive degradation of natural forest in these areas. This had resulted in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and had formed artificial barriers that inhibited elephant migration. Using Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing technology, we found that the area occupied by rubber plantations, tea farms, and urban settlements had dramatically increased over the past 40 years, resulting in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and forming artificial barriers that inhibit elephant migration. The restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate gene exchange among isolated elephant populations and the establishment of cross-boundary protected areas between China and Laos to secure their natural

Asian elephants in China: estimating population size and evaluating habitat suitability.

PubMed

Zhang, Li; Dong, Lu; Lin, Liu; Feng, Limin; Yan, Fan; Wang, Lanxin; Guo, Xianming; Luo, Aidong

2015-01-01

We monitored the last remaining Asian elephant populations in China over the past decade. Using DNA tools and repeat genotyping, we estimated the population sizes from 654 dung samples collected from various areas. Combined with morphological individual identifications from over 6,300 elephant photographs taken in the wild, we estimated that the total Asian elephant population size in China is between 221 and 245. Population genetic structure and diversity were examined using a 556-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA, and 24 unique haplotypes were detected from DNA analysis of 178 individuals. A phylogenetic analysis revealed two highly divergent clades of Asian elephants, α and β, present in Chinese populations. Four populations (Mengla, Shangyong, Mengyang, and Pu'Er) carried mtDNA from the α clade, and only one population (Nangunhe) carried mtDNA belonging to the β clade. Moreover, high genetic divergence was observed between the Nangunhe population and the other four populations; however, genetic diversity among the five populations was low, possibly due to limited gene flow because of habitat fragmentation. The expansion of rubber plantations, crop cultivation, and villages along rivers and roads had caused extensive degradation of natural forest in these areas. This had resulted in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and had formed artificial barriers that inhibited elephant migration. Using Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing technology, we found that the area occupied by rubber plantations, tea farms, and urban settlements had dramatically increased over the past 40 years, resulting in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and forming artificial barriers that inhibit elephant migration. The restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate gene exchange among isolated elephant populations and the establishment of cross-boundary protected areas between China and Laos to secure their natural

Source and Size of Social Support Network on Sedentary Behavior Among Older Adults.

PubMed

Loprinzi, Paul D; Crush, Elizabeth A

2018-01-01

To examine the association of source of social support and size of social support network on sedentary behavior among older adults. Cross-sectional. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003 to 2006. 2519 older adults (60+ years). Sedentary behavior was assessed via accelerometry over a 7-day period. Social support was assessed via self-report. Sources evaluated include spouse, son, daughter, sibling, neighbor, church member, and friend. Regarding size of social network, participants were asked, "In general, how many close friends do you have?" Multivariable linear regression. After adjustment, there was no evidence of an association between the size of social support network and sedentary behavior. With regard to specific sources of social support, spousal social support was associated with less sedentary behavior (β = -11.6; 95% confidence interval: -20.7 to -2.5), with evidence to suggest that this was only true for men. Further, an inverse association was observed between household size and sedentary behavior, with those having a greater number of individuals in the house having lower levels of sedentary behavior. These associations occurred independent of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, age, gender, race-ethnicity, measured body mass index, total cholesterol, self-reported smoking status, and physician diagnosis of congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, stroke, cancer, hypertension, or diabetes. Spouse-specific emotion-related social support (particularly for men) and household size were associated with less sedentary behavior.

Associations among body size across the life course, adult height and endometriosis.

PubMed

Farland, L V; Missmer, S A; Bijon, A; Gusto, G; Gelot, A; Clavel-Chapelon, F; Mesrine, S; Boutron-Ruault, M C; Kvaskoff, M

2017-08-01

Are body size across the life course and adult height associated with endometriosis? Endometriosis is associated with lean body size during childhood, adolescence and adulthood; tall total adult height; and tall sitting height. The literature suggests that both adult body size and height are associated with endometriosis risk, but few studies have investigated the role of body size across the life course. Additionally, no study has investigated the relationships between components of height and endometriosis. We used a nested case-control design within E3N (Etude Epidémiologique auprès de femmes de l'Education Nationale), a prospective cohort of French women. Data were updated every 2-3 years through self-administered questionnaires. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were computed using logistic regression models adjusted for a priori confounding factors. A total of 2416 endometriosis cases were reported as surgically ascertained among the 61 208 included women. The odds of endometriosis were lower among women who reported having a large versus lean body size at 8 years (P for trend = 0.003), at menarche (P for trend < 0.0001) and at ages 20-25 years (P for trend < 0.0001). Women in the highest quartiles of height had statistically significantly increased odds of endometriosis compared to those in the lowest (<158 cm) (162-164 cm: OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.12-1.46; ≥165 cm: OR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.18-1.49, P for trend < 0.0001). Statistically significantly increased odds were also observed among women with a taller sitting height (OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.05-1.47, P for trend = 0.01). Leg length was not statistically significantly associated with endometriosis. Endometriosis cases may be prone to misclassification; however, we restricted our case definition to surgically-confirmed cases, which showed a high validation rate. Body size is based on retrospective self-report, which may be subject to recall bias. The results of this study suggest that endometriosis is positively

The Prevalence of Tooth Wear in the Dutch Adult Population

PubMed Central

Wetselaar, Peter; Vermaire, Jan H.; Visscher, Corine M.; Lobbezoo, Frank; Schuller, Annemarie A.

2016-01-01

This study aimed to assess the prevalence of tooth wear in different age groups of the Dutch adult population and to determine this tooth wear distribution by gender, socioeconomic class, and type of teeth. Results were compared with the outcomes of a previous study in a comparable population. As part of a comprehensive investigation of the oral health of the general Dutch adult population in 2013, tooth wear was assessed among 1,125 subjects in the city of ‘s-Hertogenbosch. The data collected were subjected to stratified analysis by 5 age groups (25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65-74 years), gender, socioeconomic class, and type of teeth. Tooth wear was assessed using a 5-point ordinal occlusal/incisal grading scale. The number of teeth affected was higher in older age groups. Men showed more tooth wear than women, and subjects with low socioeconomic status (low SES) showed on average higher scores than those with high SES. Tooth wear prevalence found in this study was higher in all age groups than in the previous study. The present study found prevalences of 13% for mild tooth wear and 80% for moderate tooth wear, leading to the conclusion that these are common conditions in the Dutch adult population. Severe tooth wear (prevalence 6%) may however be characterized as rare. A tendency was found for there to be more tooth wear in older age groups, in men as compared with women, in persons with lower SES, and in the present survey as compared with the previous one. PMID:27694757

The Prevalence of Tooth Wear in the Dutch Adult Population.

PubMed

Wetselaar, Peter; Vermaire, Jan H; Visscher, Corine M; Lobbezoo, Frank; Schuller, Annemarie A

2016-01-01

This study aimed to assess the prevalence of tooth wear in different age groups of the Dutch adult population and to determine this tooth wear distribution by gender, socioeconomic class, and type of teeth. Results were compared with the outcomes of a previous study in a comparable population. As part of a comprehensive investigation of the oral health of the general Dutch adult population in 2013, tooth wear was assessed among 1,125 subjects in the city of 's-Hertogenbosch. The data collected were subjected to stratified analysis by 5 age groups (25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65-74 years), gender, socioeconomic class, and type of teeth. Tooth wear was assessed using a 5-point ordinal occlusal/incisal grading scale. The number of teeth affected was higher in older age groups. Men showed more tooth wear than women, and subjects with low socioeconomic status (low SES) showed on average higher scores than those with high SES. Tooth wear prevalence found in this study was higher in all age groups than in the previous study. The present study found prevalences of 13% for mild tooth wear and 80% for moderate tooth wear, leading to the conclusion that these are common conditions in the Dutch adult population. Severe tooth wear (prevalence 6%) may however be characterized as rare. A tendency was found for there to be more tooth wear in older age groups, in men as compared with women, in persons with lower SES, and in the present survey as compared with the previous one. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Caregiver Abuse of Chicago Chinese Older Adults in a Community-Dwelling Population

PubMed Central

Dong, Xin Qi; Li, Ge

2016-01-01

Objectives This study aimed to examine the prevalence and correlates of elder abuse reported by adult children among U.S Chinese populations. Method A community-based participatory research approach was implemented. A total of 548 Chinese adult children aged 21 years and over participated in this study. Elder abuse reported by adult children was assessed using Caregiver Abuse Screen (CASE). Results This study found a prevalence of 59.8%for elder abuse among 548 adult children. Younger age (r = −0.10, p < .05), higher level of education (r = 0.20, p < .001), higher income (r = 0.14, p < .01), more years in the U.S. (r = 0.12, p < .05), not born in Mainland China (r = −0.13, p < .01), and English-speaking (r = 0.16, p < .001) were positively correlated with elder abuse reported by adult children. Discussion Elder abuse by adult children is prevalent among U.S. Chinese populations. It is necessary for researchers, health care providers and policy makers to put more attention on elder abuse by adult children. Longitudinal research is needed to explore the risk factors associated with elder abuse by adult children. Health care providers should improve detection of elder abuse and support at-risk caregivers. Policy makers may consider cultural sensitive approaches to address elder abuse. PMID:27606358

The temporal spectrum of adult mosquito population fluctuations: conceptual and modeling implications.

PubMed

Jian, Yun; Silvestri, Sonia; Brown, Jeff; Hickman, Rick; Marani, Marco

2014-01-01

An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years. Population dynamical modelling suggests that the observed fast fluctuations scales (2 days-weeks) are importantly affected by a varying mosquito activity in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions, a process neglected in most representations of mosquito population dynamics. We further suggest that the range of time scales over which adult mosquito population variability takes place can be divided into three main parts. At small time scales (indicatively 2 days-1 month) observed population fluctuations are mainly driven by behavioral responses to rapid changes in weather conditions. At intermediate scales (1 to several month) environmentally-forced fluctuations in generation times, mortality rates, and density dependence determine the population characteristic response times. At longer scales (annual to multi-annual) mosquito populations follow seasonal and inter-annual environmental changes. We conclude that observations of adult mosquito populations should be based on a sub-weekly sampling frequency and that predictive models of mosquito abundance must include behavioral dynamics to separate the effects of a varying mosquito activity from actual changes in the abundance of the

Estimates of complications of medical care in the adult US population.

PubMed

Villanueva, E V; Anderson, J N

2001-01-01

Total US population estimates of complications of medical care have relied on extrapolations of state-specific estimates. Generalizability is suspect because findings are limited by geographical location or time. We describe the relationship between the annual prevalence of complications of medical care (CM) and socio-demographic characteristics in the adult US population. We used data from the National Health Interview Surveys, annual nationwide surveys of the resident, civilian, noninstitutionalized population of the United States. The main outcome of interest was self-reported conditions from CMs (ICD-9 996-999) and activity limitations that arise from such events. Univariate estimates and multivariably adjusted models accounting for selected socio-demographic characteristics and health status were derived. A total of 618,167 reports of conditions from 313,438 subjects 18 years and older from 1987 to 1994 were examined. In 1987, 830,386 adults reported complications of medical care, increasing by about 40% to 1,174,089 adults in 1994. Based on an extrapolation to the US adult population, rates increased by 25% from 558 to 678 per 100,000 during the same period. One-third reported onset a year prior to the interview; two-thirds visited a doctor six months prior; half experienced limitation in major activities; a quarter reported limitation in personal care activities. In the two weeks preceding the interview, complications of medical care caused an average of 1.72 days of restricted activity, 0.79 days spent in bed, and 0.58 days of work lost. Race modified the age-specific risk of these complications. Complications of medical care impose heavier morbidity than previously considered with some indication that socio-demographic variables modify the risk for injuries.

Place and type of meals consumed by adults in medium sized cities

PubMed Central

Carús, Juliana Pires; França, Giovanny V A; Barros, Aluísio J D

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To describe the meals consumed by adults living in a midsize city in the South of Brazil, according to the place and preparation. METHODS A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2012. The two-stage sampling design used the 2010 census tracts as primary sampling units. Data were collected on the place of meals (at home or out) and on the kind of preparations consumed at home (homemade, snacks, take away food) covering the two days prior to the interview, using a standardized questionnaire. RESULTS The study included 2,927 adults, of which 59.0% were female, 60.0% were below 50 years of age and 58.0% were in work. Data were collected on 11,581 meals consumed on the two days preceding the interview, 25.0% were consumed outside of the home at lunchtime, and 10.0% at dinnertime. Considering home meals, most participants reported eating food prepared at home at both lunch and dinner. The majority of out-of-home meals (64.0% for lunch and 61.0% for dinner) were consumed in the work place, mostly based on food prepared at home. Individuals eating out of home were mostly male, young and highly educated. The occupational categories that ate at restaurants more often were trade workers, businessmen, teachers and graduate professionals. CONCLUSIONS Despite the changes in eating patterns described in Brazil in recent years, residents of medium-sized towns still mostly eat at home, consuming homemade food. PMID:24789639

Habitat corridors facilitate genetic resilience irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes.

PubMed

Christie, Mark R; Knowles, L Lacey

2015-06-01

Corridors are frequently proposed to connect patches of habitat that have become isolated due to human-mediated alterations to the landscape. While it is understood that corridors can facilitate dispersal between patches, it remains unknown whether corridors can mitigate the negative genetic effects for entire communities modified by habitat fragmentation. These negative genetic effects, which include reduced genetic diversity, limit the potential for populations to respond to selective agents such as disease epidemics and global climate change. We provide clear evidence from a forward-time, agent-based model (ABM) that corridors can facilitate genetic resilience in fragmented habitats across a broad range of species dispersal abilities and population sizes. Our results demonstrate that even modest increases in corridor width decreased the genetic differentiation between patches and increased the genetic diversity and effective population size within patches. Furthermore, we document a trade-off between corridor quality and corridor design whereby populations connected by high-quality habitat (i.e., low corridor mortality) are more resilient to suboptimal corridor design (e.g., long and narrow corridors). The ABM also revealed that species interactions can play a greater role than corridor design in shaping the genetic responses of populations to corridors. These results demonstrate how corridors can provide long-term conservation benefits that extend beyond targeted taxa and scale up to entire communities irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes.

Habitat corridors facilitate genetic resilience irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes

PubMed Central

Christie, Mark R; Knowles, L Lacey

2015-01-01

Corridors are frequently proposed to connect patches of habitat that have become isolated due to human-mediated alterations to the landscape. While it is understood that corridors can facilitate dispersal between patches, it remains unknown whether corridors can mitigate the negative genetic effects for entire communities modified by habitat fragmentation. These negative genetic effects, which include reduced genetic diversity, limit the potential for populations to respond to selective agents such as disease epidemics and global climate change. We provide clear evidence from a forward-time, agent-based model (ABM) that corridors can facilitate genetic resilience in fragmented habitats across a broad range of species dispersal abilities and population sizes. Our results demonstrate that even modest increases in corridor width decreased the genetic differentiation between patches and increased the genetic diversity and effective population size within patches. Furthermore, we document a trade-off between corridor quality and corridor design whereby populations connected by high-quality habitat (i.e., low corridor mortality) are more resilient to suboptimal corridor design (e.g., long and narrow corridors). The ABM also revealed that species interactions can play a greater role than corridor design in shaping the genetic responses of populations to corridors. These results demonstrate how corridors can provide long-term conservation benefits that extend beyond targeted taxa and scale up to entire communities irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes. PMID:26029259

Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

PubMed

Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

2018-04-01

The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Effect size and cost-effectiveness estimates of breast and cervical cancer screening reminders by population size through complete enumeration of Japanese local municipalities.

PubMed

Komoto, Shigekazu; Nishiwaki, Yuji; Okamura, Tomonori; Tanaka, Hideo; Takebayashi, Toru

2014-01-16

Client reminders are known to increase cancer screening attendance rates. However, there are significant costs associated with them, and their effect by population size is unknown. In 2007 and 2008, the Japanese Government surveyed breast and cervical cancer screening in every municipality in Japan. From the results, we selected all 1,464 municipalities that carried out both screening types. We examined whether changes in screening attendance rates between 2007 and 2008 were associated with client reminders, number of public health nurses per 100,000 population, financial strength index, and 2007 attendance rates for different population sizes. We then calculated cost-effectiveness estimates of client reminders by population size and screening type. Client reminders were associated with increased attendance rates in populations <100,000. For populations of 50,000-100,000, there was a 2.76% increase in breast cancer screening (95% CI: 0.41, 5.11), and a 2.25% increase in cervical cancer screening (95% CI: 0.89, 3.61). The incremental cost per additional attendance was higher in populations <50,000 than in populations of 50,000-100,000 (breast, $100 versus $54; cervical, $149 versus $67 respectively). Client reminders for breast and cervical cancer screening increased attendance rates in smaller municipalities in Japan.

Mortality Among Adults With Intellectual Disability in England: Comparisons With the General Population

PubMed Central

Hosking, Fay J.; Shah, Sunil M.; Harris, Tess; DeWilde, Stephen; Beighton, Carole; Cook, Derek G.

2016-01-01

Objectives. To describe mortality among adults with intellectual disability in England in comparison with the general population. Methods. We conducted a cohort study from 2009 to 2013 using data from 343 general practices. Adults with intellectual disability (n = 16 666; 656 deaths) were compared with age-, gender-, and practice-matched controls (n = 113 562; 1358 deaths). Results. Adults with intellectual disability had higher mortality rates than controls (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.3, 3.9). This risk remained high after adjustment for comorbidity, smoking, and deprivation (HR = 3.1; 95% CI = 2.7, 3.4); it was even higher among adults with intellectual disability and Down syndrome or epilepsy. A total of 37.0% of all deaths among adults with intellectual disability were classified as being amenable to health care intervention, compared with 22.5% in the general population (HR = 5.9; 95% CI = 5.1, 6.8). Conclusions. Mortality among adults with intellectual disability is markedly elevated in comparison with the general population, with more than a third of deaths potentially amenable to health care interventions. This mortality disparity suggests the need to improve access to, and quality of, health care among people with intellectual disability. PMID:27310347

mtDNA variation predicts population size in humans and reveals a major Southern Asian chapter in human prehistory.

PubMed

Atkinson, Quentin D; Gray, Russell D; Drummond, Alexei J

2008-02-01

The relative timing and size of regional human population growth following our expansion from Africa remain unknown. Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity carries a legacy of our population history. Given a set of sequences, we can use coalescent theory to estimate past population size through time and draw inferences about human population history. However, recent work has challenged the validity of using mtDNA diversity to infer species population sizes. Here we use Bayesian coalescent inference methods, together with a global data set of 357 human mtDNA coding-region sequences, to infer human population sizes through time across 8 major geographic regions. Our estimates of relative population sizes show remarkable concordance with the contemporary regional distribution of humans across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas, indicating that mtDNA diversity is a good predictor of population size in humans. Plots of population size through time show slow growth in sub-Saharan Africa beginning 143-193 kya, followed by a rapid expansion into Eurasia after the emergence of the first non-African mtDNA lineages 50-70 kya. Outside Africa, the earliest and fastest growth is inferred in Southern Asia approximately 52 kya, followed by a succession of growth phases in Northern and Central Asia (approximately 49 kya), Australia (approximately 48 kya), Europe (approximately 42 kya), the Middle East and North Africa (approximately 40 kya), New Guinea (approximately 39 kya), the Americas (approximately 18 kya), and a second expansion in Europe (approximately 10-15 kya). Comparisons of relative regional population sizes through time suggest that between approximately 45 and 20 kya most of humanity lived in Southern Asia. These findings not only support the use of mtDNA data for estimating human population size but also provide a unique picture of human prehistory and demonstrate the importance of Southern Asia to our recent evolutionary past.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

PubMed

Gupta, Manan; Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T N C

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators

PubMed Central

Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T. N. C.

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating the Population Sizes of Men Who Have Sex With Men in US States and Counties Using Data From the American Community Survey.

PubMed

Grey, Jeremy A; Bernstein, Kyle T; Sullivan, Patrick S; Purcell, David W; Chesson, Harrell W; Gift, Thomas L; Rosenberg, Eli S

2016-01-01

In the United States, male-to-male sexual transmission accounts for the greatest number of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses and a substantial number of sexually transmitted infections (STI) annually. However, the prevalence and annual incidence of HIV and other STIs among men who have sex with men (MSM) cannot be estimated in local contexts because demographic data on sexual behavior, particularly same-sex behavior, are not routinely collected by large-scale surveys that allow analysis at state, county, or finer levels, such as the US decennial census or the American Community Survey (ACS). Therefore, techniques for indirectly estimating population sizes of MSM are necessary to supply denominators for rates at various geographic levels. Our objectives were to indirectly estimate MSM population sizes at the county level to incorporate recent data estimates and to aggregate county-level estimates to states and core-based statistical areas (CBSAs). We used data from the ACS to calculate a weight for each county in the United States based on its relative proportion of households that were headed by a male who lived with a male partner, compared with the overall proportion among counties at the same level of urbanicity (ie, large central metropolitan county, large fringe metropolitan county, medium/small metropolitan county, or nonmetropolitan county). We then used this weight to adjust the urbanicity-stratified percentage of adult men who had sex with a man in the past year, according to estimates derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), for each county. We multiplied the weighted percentages by the number of adult men in each county to estimate its number of MSM, summing county-level estimates to create state- and CBSA-level estimates. Finally, we scaled our estimated MSM population sizes to a meta-analytic estimate of the percentage of US MSM in the past 5 years (3.9%). We found that the percentage of MSM among adult

Meet the parents? Family size and the geographic proximity between adult children and older mothers in Sweden.

PubMed

Holmlund, Helena; Rainer, Helmut; Siedler, Thomas

2013-06-01

The aim of this study is to estimate the causal effect of family size on the proximity between older mothers and adult children by using a large administrative data set from Sweden. Our main results show that adult children in Sweden are not constrained by sibship size in choosing where to live: for families with more than one child, sibship size does not affect child-mother proximity. For aging parents, however, having fewer children reduces the probability of having at least one child living nearby, which is likely to have consequences for the intensity of intergenerational contact and eldercare.

Optimal city size and population density for the 21st century.

PubMed

Speare A; White, M J

1990-10-01

The thesis that large scale urban areas result in greater efficiency, reduced costs, and a better quality of life is reexamined. The environmental and social costs are measured for different scales of settlement. The desirability and perceived problems of a particular place are examined in relation to size of place. The consequences of population decline are considered. New York city is described as providing both opportunities in employment, shopping, and cultural activities as well as a high cost of living, crime, and pollution. The historical development of large cities in the US is described. Immigration has contributed to a greater concentration of population than would have otherwise have occurred. The spatial proximity of goods and services argument (agglomeration economies) has changed with advancements in technology such as roads, trucking, and electronic communication. There is no optimal city size. The overall effect of agglomeration can be assessed by determining whether the markets for goods and labor are adequate to maximize well-being and balance the negative and positive aspects of urbanization. The environmental costs of cities increase with size when air quality, water quality, sewage treatment, and hazardous waste disposal is considered. Smaller scale and lower density cities have the advantages of a lower concentration of pollutants. Also, mobilization for program support is easier with homogenous population. Lower population growth in large cities would contribute to a higher quality of life, since large metropolitan areas have a concentration of immigrants, younger age distributions, and minority groups with higher than average birth rates. The negative consequences of decline can be avoided if reduction of population in large cities takes place gradually. For example, poorer quality housing can be removed for open space. Cities should, however, still attract all classes of people with opportunities equally available.

Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods

PubMed Central

Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

2014-01-01

HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture–recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture–recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998–3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916–2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture–recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture–recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. PMID:25336306

Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

PubMed

Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

2015-10-01

HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. © The Author(s) 2015.

Association of Age, Sex, Body Size and Ethnicity with Electrocardiographic Values in Community-based Older Asian Adults.

PubMed

Tan, Eugene S J; Yap, Jonathan; Xu, Chang Fen; Feng, Liang; Nyunt, Shwe Zin; Santhanakrishnan, Rajalakshmi; Chan, Michelle M Y; Seow, Swee Chong; Ching, Chi Keong; Yeo, Khung Keong; Richards, A Mark; Ng, Tze Pin; Lim, Toon Wei; Lam, Carolyn S P

2016-07-01

Existing electrocardiographic (ECG) reference values were derived in middle-aged Caucasian adults. We aimed to assess the association of age, sex, body size and ethnicity on ECG parameters in a multi-ethnic Asian population. Resting 12-lead ECG and anthropometric measurements were performed in a community-based cohort of 3777 older Asians (age 64.7±9.1 years, 1467 men, 88.8% Chinese, 7.7% Malay, 3.5% Indian, body mass index [BMI] 24.0±3.9kg/m(2)). Men had longer PR interval, wider QRS, shorter QTc interval and taller SV3. In both sexes, older age was associated with longer PR interval, wider QRS, larger R aVL and more leftward QRS axis, while higher BMI was associated with longer PR interval, wider QRS, larger RaVL and more negative QRS axis. There were significant inter-ethnic differences in QRS duration among men, as well as in PR and QTc intervals among women (all adjusted p<0.05). Findings were similar in a healthy subset of 1158 adults (age 61.2±9.1 years, 365 men) without cardiovascular risk factors. These first community-based ECG data in multi-ethnic older Asians highlight the independent effects of age, sex, body size and ethnicity on ECG parameters. Copyright © 2016 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The niche construction of cultural complexity: interactions between innovations, population size and the environment.

PubMed

Fogarty, Laurel; Creanza, Nicole

2017-12-05

Niche construction is a process through which organisms alter their environments and, in doing so, influence or change the selective pressures to which they are subject. 'Cultural niche construction' refers specifically to the effect of cultural traits on the selective environments of other biological or cultural traits and may be especially important in human evolution. In addition, the relationship between population size and cultural accumulation has been the subject of extensive debate, in part because anthropological studies have demonstrated a significant association between population size and toolkit complexity in only a subset of studied cultures. Here, we review the role of cultural innovation in constructing human evolutionary niches and introduce a new model to describe the accumulation of human cultural traits that incorporates the effects of cultural niche construction. We consider the results of this model in light of available data on human toolkit sizes across populations to help elucidate the important differences between food-gathering societies and food-producing societies, in which niche construction may be a more potent force. These results support the idea that a population's relationship with its environment, represented here by cultural niche construction, should be considered alongside population size in studies of cultural complexity.This article is part of the themed issue 'Process and pattern in innovations from cells to societies'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Man in Balance with the Environment: Pollution and the Optimal Population Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ultsch, Gordon R.

1973-01-01

Discusses the relationship between population size and pollution, and suggests that the optimal population level toward which we should strive would be that level at which man is in balance with the biosphere in terms of pollution production and degradation, coupled with a harmless steady-state background pollution level. (JR)

Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

Integrating Breeding Bird Survey and demographic data to estimate Wood Duck population size in the Atlantic Flyway

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John; Boomer, G. Scott; Devers, Patrick K.; Garrettson, Pamela R.

2017-01-01

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) uses data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to assist in monitoring and management of some migratory birds. However, BBS analyses provide indices of population change rather than estimates of population size, precluding their use in developing abundance-based objectives and limiting applicability to harvest management. Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) are important harvested birds in the Atlantic Flyway (AF) that are difficult to detect during aerial surveys because they prefer forested habitat. We integrated Wood Duck count data from a ground-plot survey in the northeastern U.S. with AF-wide BBS, banding, parts collection, and harvest data to derive estimates of population size for the AF. Overlapping results between the smaller-scale intensive ground-plot survey and the BBS in the northeastern U.S. provided a means for scaling BBS indices to the breeding population size estimates. We applied these scaling factors to BBS results for portions of the AF lacking intensive surveys. Banding data provided estimates of annual survival and harvest rates; the latter, when combined with parts-collection data, provided estimates of recruitment. We used the harvest data to estimate fall population size. Our estimates of breeding population size and variability from the integrated population model (N̄ = 0.99 million, SD = 0.04) were similar to estimates of breeding population size based solely on data from the AF ground-plot surveys and the BBS (N̄ = 1.01 million, SD = 0.04) from 1998 to 2015. Integrating BBS data with other data provided reliable population size estimates for Wood Ducks at a scale useful for harvest and habitat management in the AF, and allowed us to derive estimates of important demographic parameters (e.g., seasonal survival rates, sex ratio) that were not directly informed by data.

Memory-related subjective cognitive symptoms in the adult population: prevalence and associated factors - results of the LIFE-Adult-Study.

PubMed

Luck, Tobias; Roehr, Susanne; Rodriguez, Francisca S; Schroeter, Matthias L; Witte, A Veronica; Hinz, Andreas; Mehnert, Anja; Engel, Christoph; Loeffler, Markus; Thiery, Joachim; Villringer, Arno; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G

2018-05-21

Subjectively perceived memory problems (memory-related Subjective Cognitive Symptoms/SCS) can be an indicator of a pre-prodromal or prodromal stage of a neurodegenerative disease such as Alzheimer's disease. We therefore sought to provide detailed empirical information on memory-related SCS in the dementia-free adult population including information on prevalence rates, associated factors and others. We studied 8834 participants (40-79 years) of the population-based LIFE-Adult-Study. Weighted prevalence rates with confidence intervals (95%-CI) were calculated. Associations of memory-related SCS with participants' socio-demographic characteristics, physical and mental comorbidity, and cognitive performance (Verbal Fluency Test Animals, Trail-Making-Test, CERAD Wordlist tests) were analyzed. Prevalence of total memory-related SCS was 53.0% (95%-CI = 51.9-54.0): 26.0% (95%-CI = 25.1-27.0) of the population had a subtype without related concerns, 23.6% (95%-CI = 22.7-24.5) a subtype with some related concerns, and 3.3% (95%-CI = 2.9-3.7) a subtype with strong related concerns. Report of memory-related SCS was unrelated to participants' socio-demographic characteristics, physical comorbidity (except history of stroke), depressive symptomatology, and anxiety. Adults with and without memory-related SCS showed no significant difference in cognitive performance. About one fifth (18.1%) of the participants with memory-related SCS stated that they did consult/want to consult a physician because of their experienced memory problems. Memory-related SCS are very common and unspecific in the non-demented adult population aged 40-79 years. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion of this population has concerns related to experienced memory problems and/or seeks help. Already available information on additional features associated with a higher likelihood of developing dementia in people with SCS may help clinicians to decide who should be monitored more closely.

Multiple aspects of plasticity in clutch size vary among populations of a globally distributed songbird.

PubMed

Westneat, David F; Bókony, Veronika; Burke, Terry; Chastel, Olivier; Jensen, Henrik; Kvalnes, Thomas; Lendvai, Ádám Z; Liker, András; Mock, Douglas; Schroeder, Julia; Schwagmeyer, P L; Sorci, Gabriele; Stewart, Ian R K

2014-07-01

Plasticity in life-history characteristics can influence many ecological and evolutionary phenomena, including how invading organisms cope with novel conditions in new locations or how environmental change affects organisms in native locations. Variation in reaction norm attributes is a critical element to understanding plasticity in life history, yet we know relatively little about the ways in which reaction norms vary within and among populations. We amassed data on clutch size from marked females in eight populations of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from North America and Europe. We exploited repeated measures of clutch size to assess both the extent of within-individual phenotypic plasticity and among-individual variation and to test alternative hypotheses about the underlying causes of reaction norm shape, particularly the decline in clutch size with date. Across all populations, females of this multibrooded species altered their clutch size with respect to date, attempt order, and the interaction of date and order, producing a reaction norm in multidimensional environmental space. The reaction norm fits that predicted by a model in which optimal clutch size is driven by a decline with date hatched in the ability of offspring to recruit. Our results do not fit those predicted for other proposed causes of a seasonal decline in clutch size. We also found significant differences between populations in response to date and the date by attempt order interaction. We tested the prediction that the relationship with date should be increasingly negative as breeding season becomes shorter but found steeper declines in clutch size with date in populations with longer seasons, contrary to the prediction. Populations also differed in the level of among-individual variation in reaction norm intercept, but we found no evidence of among-individual variation in reaction norm slope. We show that complex reaction norms in life-history characters exhibit within- and among-population

A macroevolutionary explanation for energy equivalence in the scaling of body size and population density.

PubMed

Damuth, John

2007-05-01

Across a wide array of animal species, mean population densities decline with species body mass such that the rate of energy use of local populations is approximately independent of body size. This "energetic equivalence" is particularly evident when ecological population densities are plotted across several or more orders of magnitude in body mass and is supported by a considerable body of evidence. Nevertheless, interpretation of the data has remained controversial, largely because of the difficulty of explaining the origin and maintenance of such a size-abundance relationship in terms of purely ecological processes. Here I describe results of a simulation model suggesting that an extremely simple mechanism operating over evolutionary time can explain the major features of the empirical data. The model specifies only the size scaling of metabolism and a process where randomly chosen species evolve to take resource energy from other species. This process of energy exchange among particular species is distinct from a random walk of species abundances and creates a situation in which species populations using relatively low amounts of energy at any body size have an elevated extinction risk. Selective extinction of such species rapidly drives size-abundance allometry in faunas toward approximate energetic equivalence and maintains it there.

Population ecology of the mallard: II. Breeding habitat conditions, size of the breeding populations, and production indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pospahala, Richard S.; Anderson, David R.; Henny, Charles J.

1974-01-01

This report, the second in a series on a comprehensive analysis of mallard population data, provides information on mallard breeding habitat, the size and distribution of breeding populations, and indices to production. The information in this report is primarily the result of large-scale aerial surveys conducted during May and July, 1955-73. The history of the conflict in resource utilization between agriculturalists and wildlife conservation interests in the primary waterfowl breeding grounds is reviewed. The numbers of ponds present during the breeding season and the midsummer period and the effects of precipitation and temperature on the number of ponds present are analyzed in detail. No significant cycles in precipitation were detected and it appears that precipitation is primarily influenced by substantial seasonal and random components. Annual estimates (1955-73) of the number of mallards in surveyed and unsurveyed breeding areas provided estimates of the size and geographic distribution of breeding mallards in North America. The estimated size of the mallard breeding population in North America has ranged from a high of 14.4 million in 1958 to a low of 7.1 million in 1965. Generally, the mallard breeding population began to decline after the 1958 peak until 1962, and remained below 10 million birds until 1970. The decline and subsequent low level of the mallard population between 1959 and 1969 .generally coincided with a period of poor habitat conditions on the major breeding grounds. The density of mallards was highest in the Prairie-Parkland Area with an average of nearly 19.2 birds per square mile. The proportion of the continental mallard breeding population in the Prairie-Parkland Area ranged from 30% in 1962 to a high of 600/0 in 1956. The geographic distribution of breeding mallards throughout North America was significantly related to the number of May ponds in the Prairie-Parkland Area. Estimates of midsummer habitat conditions and indices to

Interspecific hybridization contributes to high genetic diversity and apparent effective population size in an endemic population of mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula maculosa)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, Jeffrey L.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Lavretsky, Philip; Rezsutek, Michael; Johnson, William P.; McCracken, Kevin G.

2014-01-01

Under drift-mutation equilibrium, genetic diversity is expected to be correlated with effective population size (Ne). Changes in population size and gene flow are two important processes that can cause populations to deviate from this expected relationship. In this study, we used DNA sequences from six independent loci to examine the influence of these processes on standing genetic diversity in endemic mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) and geographically widespread mallards (A. platyrhynchos), two species known to hybridize. Mottled ducks have an estimated census size that is about two orders-of-magnitude smaller than that of mallards, yet these two species have similar levels of genetic diversity, especially at nuclear DNA. Coalescent analyses suggest that a population expansion in the mallard at least partly explains this discrepancy, but the mottled duck harbors higher genetic diversity and apparent N e than expected for its census size even after accounting for a population decline. Incorporating gene flow into the model, however, reduced the estimated Ne of mottled ducks to 33 % of the equilibrium Ne and yielded an estimated Ne consistent with census size. We also examined the utility of these loci to distinguish among mallards, mottled ducks, and their hybrids. Most putatively pure individuals were correctly assigned to species, but the power for detecting hybrids was low. Although hybridization with mallards potentially poses a conservation threat to mottled ducks by creating a risk of extinction by hybridization, introgression of mallard alleles has helped maintain high genetic diversity in mottled ducks and might be important for the adaptability and survival of this species.

Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

PubMed

Lee, R

1983-01-01

There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in

Accounting for missing data in the estimation of contemporary genetic effective population size (N(e) ).

PubMed

Peel, D; Waples, R S; Macbeth, G M; Do, C; Ovenden, J R

2013-03-01

Theoretical models are often applied to population genetic data sets without fully considering the effect of missing data. Researchers can deal with missing data by removing individuals that have failed to yield genotypes and/or by removing loci that have failed to yield allelic determinations, but despite their best efforts, most data sets still contain some missing data. As a consequence, realized sample size differs among loci, and this poses a problem for unbiased methods that must explicitly account for random sampling error. One commonly used solution for the calculation of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ) is to calculate the effective sample size as an unweighted mean or harmonic mean across loci. This is not ideal because it fails to account for the fact that loci with different numbers of alleles have different information content. Here we consider this problem for genetic estimators of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ). To evaluate bias and precision of several statistical approaches for dealing with missing data, we simulated populations with known N(e) and various degrees of missing data. Across all scenarios, one method of correcting for missing data (fixed-inverse variance-weighted harmonic mean) consistently performed the best for both single-sample and two-sample (temporal) methods of estimating N(e) and outperformed some methods currently in widespread use. The approach adopted here may be a starting point to adjust other population genetics methods that include per-locus sample size components. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Widespread rapid reductions in body size of adult salamanders in response to climate change.

PubMed

Caruso, Nicholas M; Sears, Michael W; Adams, Dean C; Lips, Karen R

2014-06-01

Reduction in body size is a major response to climate change, yet evidence in globally imperiled amphibians is lacking. Shifts in average population body size could indicate either plasticity in the growth response to changing climates through changes in allocation and energetics, or through selection for decreased size where energy is limiting. We compared historic and contemporary size measurements in 15 Plethodon species from 102 populations (9450 individuals) and found that six species exhibited significant reductions in body size over 55 years. Biophysical models, accounting for actual changes in moisture and air temperature over that period, showed a 7.1-7.9% increase in metabolic expenditure at three latitudes but showed no change in annual duration of activity. Reduced size was greatest at southern latitudes in regions experiencing the greatest drying and warming. Our results are consistent with a plastic response of body size to climate change through reductions in body size as mediated through increased metabolism. These rapid reductions in body size over the past few decades have significance for the susceptibility of amphibians to environmental change, and relevance for whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change in the future. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

PubMed

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men through the Network Scale-Up Method in Japan

PubMed Central

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. Methods and Findings An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. Conclusions The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods. PMID:22563366

Size of spawning population, residence time, and territory shifts of individuals in the spawning aggregation of a riverine catostomid

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grabowski, T.B.; Isely, J.J.

2008-01-01

Little is known about the behavior of individual fish in a spawning aggregation, specifically how long an individual remains in an aggregation. We monitored Moxostoma robustum (Cope) (Robust Redhorse) in a Savannah River spawning aggregation during spring 2004 and 2005 to provide an estimate of the total number of adults and the number of males comprising the aggregation and to determine male residence time and movements within a spawning aggregation. Robust Redhorse were captured using prepostioned grid electrofishers, identified to sex, weighed, measured, and implanted with a passive integrated transponder. Spawning aggregation size was estimated using a multiple census mark-and-recapture procedure. The spawning aggregation seemed to consist of approximately the same number of individuals (82-85) and males (50-56) during both years of this study. Individual males were present for a mean of 3.6 ?? 0.24 days (?? SE) during the 12-day spawning period. The mean distance between successive recaptures of individual males was 15.9 ?? 1.29 m (?? SE). We conclude that males establish spawning territories on a daily basis and are present within the spawning aggregation for at least 3-4 days. The relatively short duration of the aggregation may be the result of an extremely small population of adults. However, the behavior of individuals has the potential to influence population estimates made while fish are aggregated for spawning.

Seasonal variation in wing size and shape between geographic populations of the malaria vector, Anopheles coluzzii in Burkina Faso (West Africa).

PubMed

Hidalgo, Kevin; Dujardin, Jean-Pierre; Mouline, Karine; Dabiré, Roch K; Renault, David; Simard, Frederic

2015-03-01

The mosquito, Anopheles coluzzii is a major vector of human malaria in Africa with widespread distribution throughout the continent. The species hence populates a wide range of environments in contrasted ecological settings often exposed to strong seasonal fluctuations. In the dry savannahs of West Africa, this mosquito population dynamics closely follows the pace of surface water availability: the species pullulates during the rainy season and is able to reproduce throughout the dry season in areas where permanent water bodies are available for breeding. The impact of such environmental fluctuation on mosquito development and the phenotypic quality of emerging adults has however not been addressed in details. Here, we examined and compared phenotypic changes in the duration of pre-imaginal development, body dry mass at emergence and wing size, shape and surface area in young adult females An. coluzzii originated from five distinct geographic locations when they are reared in two contrasting conditions mimicking those experienced by mosquitoes during the rainy season (RS) and at the onset of the dry season (ODS) in Burkina Faso (West Africa). Our results demonstrated strong phenotypic plasticity in all traits, with differences in the magnitude and direction of changes between RS and ODS depending upon the geographic origin, hence the genetic background of the mosquito populations. Highest heterogeneity within population was observed in Bama, where large irrigation schemes allow year-round mosquito breeding. Further studies are needed to explore the adaptive value of such phenotypic plasticity and its relevance for local adaptation in An. coluzzii. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) for screening of major depressive episode among adults from the general population.

PubMed

Matijasevich, Alicia; Munhoz, Tiago N; Tavares, Beatriz Franck; Barbosa, Ana Paula Pereira Neto; da Silva, Diego Mello; Abitante, Morgana Sonza; Dall'Agnol, Tatiane Abreu; Santos, Iná S

2014-10-08

Standardized questionnaires designed for the identification of depression are useful for monitoring individual as well as population mental health. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) has originally been developed to assist primary care health professionals to detect postnatal depression, but several authors recommend its use outside of the postpartum period. In Brazil, the use of the EPDS for screening depression outside the postpartum period and among non-selected populations has not been validated. The present study aimed to assess the validity of the EPDS as a screening instrument for major depressive episode (MDE) among adults from the general population. This is a validation study that used a population-based sampling technique to select the participants. The study was conducted in the city of Pelotas, Brazil. Households were randomly selected by two stage conglomerates with probability proportional to size. EPDS was administered to 447 adults (≥20 years). Approximately 17 days later, participants were reinterviewed by psychiatrics and psychologists using a structured diagnostic interview (Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview, MINI). We calculated the sensitivity and specificity of each cutoff point of EPDS, and values were plotted as a receiver operator characteristic curve. The best cutoff point for screening depression was ≥8, with 80.0% (64.4 - 90.9%) sensitivity and 87.0% (83.3 - 90.1%) specificity. Among women the best cutoff point was ≥8 too with values of sensitivity and specificity of 84.4% (67.2 - 94.7%) and 81.3% (75.5 - 86.1%), respectively. Among men, the best cutoff point was ≥7 (75% sensitivity and 89% specificity). The EPDS was shown to be suitable for screening MDE among adults in the community.

N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

Spatial replication is a common theme in count surveys of animals. Such surveys often generate sparse count data from which it is difficult to estimate population size while formally accounting for detection probability. In this article, i describe a class of models (n-mixture models) which allow for estimation of population size from such data. The key idea is to view site-specific population sizes, n, as independent random variables distributed according to some mixing distribution (e.g., Poisson). Prior parameters are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data, having integrated over the prior distribution for n. Carroll and lombard (1985, journal of american statistical association 80, 423-426) proposed a class of estimators based on mixing over a prior distribution for detection probability. Their estimator can be applied in limited settings, but is sensitive to prior parameter values that are fixed a priori. Spatial replication provides additional information regarding the parameters of the prior distribution on n that is exploited by the n-mixture models and which leads to reasonable estimates of abundance from sparse data. A simulation study demonstrates superior operating characteristics (bias, confidence interval coverage) of the n-mixture estimator compared to the caroll and lombard estimator. Both estimators are applied to point count data on six species of birds illustrating the sensitivity to choice of prior on p and substantially different estimates of abundance as a consequence.

Founder representation and effective population size in old versus young breeds-genetic diversity of Finnish and Nordic Spitz.

PubMed

Kumpulainen, M; Anderson, H; Svevar, T; Kangasvuo, I; Donner, J; Pohjoismäki, J

2017-10-01

Finnish Spitz is 130-year-old breed and has been highly popular in Finland throughout its history. Nordic Spitz is very similar to Finnish Spitz by origin and use, but is a relatively recent breed with much smaller population size. To see how breed age and breeding history have influenced the current population, we performed comprehensive population genetic analysis using pedigree data of 28,119 Finnish and 9,009 Nordic Spitzes combined with genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from 135 Finnish and 110 Nordic Spitzes. We found that the Finnish Spitz has undergone repeated male bottlenecks resulting in dramatic loss of genetic diversity, reflected by 20 effective founders (f a ) and mean heterozygosity (Hz) of 0.313. The realized effective population size in the breed based on pedigree analysis (N¯ec) is 168, whereas the genetic effective population size (N eg ) computed the decay of linkage disequilibrium (r 2 ) is only 57 individuals. Nordic Spitz, although once been near extinction, has not been exposed to similar repeated bottlenecks than Finnish Spitz and had f a of 27 individuals. However, due to the smaller total population size, the breed has also smaller effective population size than Finnish Spitz (N¯ec = 98 and N eg  = 49). Interestingly, the r 2 data show that the effective population size has contracted dramatically since the establishment of the breed, emphasizing the role of breed standards as constrains for the breeding population. Despite the small population size, Nordic Spitz still maintains SNP heterozygosity levels similar to mixed breed dogs (mean Hz = 0.409). Our study demonstrates that although pedigree analyses cannot provide estimates of the present diversity within a breed, the effective population sizes inferred from them correlate with the genotyping results. The genetic relationships of the northern Spitz breeds and the benefits of the open breed registry are discussed. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Size variability of handwriting in healthy Korean older adults.

PubMed

Yoon, Ji Hye; Kim, Hyanghee; Kim, Jungwan; Park, Eunjeong; Kim, Soo Ryon

2014-04-01

The aim of the present study was to delineate how age-related deterioration affects the handwriting of healthy elderly (HE) subjects. A total of 235 HE (54 males, 181 females) aged 57-91 years participated as subjects in the study. In order to compare the area of handwriting, we divided the participants into two groups: (i) aged 57-74 years; and (ii) aged 75-91 years. The writing stimulus was a four-syllabic word with one-to-one grapheme-to-phoneme correspondence. The size of each syllable in the target word was measured using a software program. Alignment of the word to baseline was assessed using a multiple-choice checklist. As compared with handwriting by the younger group, the older group showed greater variability in the size of the written syllables within the word (P = 0.023). The handwriting was characterized by unequal size among syllables and non-perpendicular alignment, which could be explained by several factors. First, the variability might have resulted from irregular fine movement motor control in older adults. Second, the deterioration of visual feedback and visuomotor integration in normal aging might have affected handwriting performance. In conclusion, variability of handwriting can be sensitive in predicting the aging process. © 2013 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Asymmetric competition causes multimodal size distributions in spatially structured populations

PubMed Central

Velázquez, Jorge; Allen, Robert B.; Coomes, David A.; Eichhorn, Markus P.

2016-01-01

Plant sizes within populations often exhibit multimodal distributions, even when all individuals are the same age and have experienced identical conditions. To establish the causes of this, we created an individual-based model simulating the growth of trees in a spatially explicit framework, which was parametrized using data from a long-term study of forest stands in New Zealand. First, we demonstrate that asymmetric resource competition is a necessary condition for the formation of multimodal size distributions within cohorts. By contrast, the legacy of small-scale clustering during recruitment is transient and quickly overwhelmed by density-dependent mortality. Complex multi-layered size distributions are generated when established individuals are restricted in the spatial domain within which they can capture resources. The number of modes reveals the effective number of direct competitors, while the separation and spread of modes are influenced by distances among established individuals. Asymmetric competition within local neighbourhoods can therefore generate a range of complex size distributions within even-aged cohorts. PMID:26817778

Podocyte Number in Children and Adults: Associations with Glomerular Size and Numbers of Other Glomerular Resident Cells

PubMed Central

Puelles, Victor G.; Douglas-Denton, Rebecca N.; Cullen-McEwen, Luise A.; Li, Jinhua; Hughson, Michael D.; Hoy, Wendy E.; Kerr, Peter G.

2015-01-01

Increases in glomerular size occur with normal body growth and in many pathologic conditions. In this study, we determined associations between glomerular size and numbers of glomerular resident cells, with a particular focus on podocytes. Kidneys from 16 male Caucasian-Americans without overt renal disease, including 4 children (≤3 years old) to define baseline values of early life and 12 adults (≥18 years old), were collected at autopsy in Jackson, Mississippi. We used a combination of immunohistochemistry, confocal microscopy, and design-based stereology to estimate individual glomerular volume (IGV) and numbers of podocytes, nonepithelial cells (NECs; tuft cells other than podocytes), and parietal epithelial cells (PECs). Podocyte density was calculated. Data are reported as medians and interquartile ranges (IQRs). Glomeruli from children were small and contained 452 podocytes (IQR=335–502), 389 NECs (IQR=265–498), and 146 PECs (IQR=111–206). Adult glomeruli contained significantly more cells than glomeruli from children, including 558 podocytes (IQR=431–746; P<0.01), 1383 NECs (IQR=998–2042; P<0.001), and 367 PECs (IQR=309–673; P<0.001). However, large adult glomeruli showed markedly lower podocyte density (183 podocytes per 106 µm3) than small glomeruli from adults and children (932 podocytes per 106 µm3; P<0.001). In conclusion, large adult glomeruli contained more podocytes than small glomeruli from children and adults, raising questions about the origin of these podocytes. The increased number of podocytes in large glomeruli does not match the increase in glomerular size observed in adults, resulting in relative podocyte depletion. This may render hypertrophic glomeruli susceptible to pathology. PMID:25568174

A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling for sampling effort

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantarello, Elena; Steck, Claude E.; Fontana, Paolo; Fontaneto, Diego; Marini, Lorenzo; Pautasso, Marco

2010-03-01

Recent large-scale studies have shown that biodiversity-rich regions also tend to be densely populated areas. The most obvious explanation is that biodiversity and human beings tend to match the distribution of energy availability, environmental stability and/or habitat heterogeneity. However, the species-people correlation can also be an artefact, as more populated regions could show more species because of a more thorough sampling. Few studies have tested this sampling bias hypothesis. Using a newly collated dataset, we studied whether Orthoptera species richness is related to human population size in Italy’s regions (average area 15,000 km2) and provinces (2,900 km2). As expected, the observed number of species increases significantly with increasing human population size for both grain sizes, although the proportion of variance explained is minimal at the provincial level. However, variations in observed Orthoptera species richness are primarily associated with the available number of records, which is in turn well correlated with human population size (at least at the regional level). Estimated Orthoptera species richness (Chao2 and Jackknife) also increases with human population size both for regions and provinces. Both for regions and provinces, this increase is not significant when controlling for variation in area and number of records. Our study confirms the hypothesis that broad-scale human population-biodiversity correlations can in some cases be artefactual. More systematic sampling of less studied taxa such as invertebrates is necessary to ascertain whether biogeographical patterns persist when sampling effort is kept constant or included in models.

Estimating the Population Sizes of Men Who Have Sex With Men in US States and Counties Using Data From the American Community Survey

PubMed Central

Bernstein, Kyle T; Sullivan, Patrick S; Purcell, David W; Chesson, Harrell W; Gift, Thomas L; Rosenberg, Eli S

2016-01-01

Background In the United States, male-to-male sexual transmission accounts for the greatest number of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses and a substantial number of sexually transmitted infections (STI) annually. However, the prevalence and annual incidence of HIV and other STIs among men who have sex with men (MSM) cannot be estimated in local contexts because demographic data on sexual behavior, particularly same-sex behavior, are not routinely collected by large-scale surveys that allow analysis at state, county, or finer levels, such as the US decennial census or the American Community Survey (ACS). Therefore, techniques for indirectly estimating population sizes of MSM are necessary to supply denominators for rates at various geographic levels. Objective Our objectives were to indirectly estimate MSM population sizes at the county level to incorporate recent data estimates and to aggregate county-level estimates to states and core-based statistical areas (CBSAs). Methods We used data from the ACS to calculate a weight for each county in the United States based on its relative proportion of households that were headed by a male who lived with a male partner, compared with the overall proportion among counties at the same level of urbanicity (ie, large central metropolitan county, large fringe metropolitan county, medium/small metropolitan county, or nonmetropolitan county). We then used this weight to adjust the urbanicity-stratified percentage of adult men who had sex with a man in the past year, according to estimates derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), for each county. We multiplied the weighted percentages by the number of adult men in each county to estimate its number of MSM, summing county-level estimates to create state- and CBSA-level estimates. Finally, we scaled our estimated MSM population sizes to a meta-analytic estimate of the percentage of US MSM in the past 5 years (3.9%). Results We found

Fishing-induced changes in adult length are mediated by skipped-spawning.

PubMed

Wang, Hui-Yu; Chen, Ying-Shiuan; Hsu, Chien-Chung; Shen, Sheng-Feng

2017-01-01

Elucidating fishing effects on fish population dynamics is a critical step toward sustainable fisheries management. Despite previous studies that have suggested age or size truncation in exploited fish populations, other aspects of fishing effects on population demography, e.g., via altering life histories and density, have received less attention. Here, we investigated the fishing effects altering adult demography via shifting reproductive trade-offs in the iconic, overexploited, Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis. We found that, contrary to our expectation, mean lengths of catch increased over time in longline fisheries. On the other hand, mean catch lengths for purse seine fisheries did not show such increasing trends. We hypothesized that the size-dependent energetic cost of the spawning migration and elevated fishing mortality on the spawning grounds potentially drive size-dependent skipped spawning for adult tuna, mediating the observed changes in the catch lengths. Using eco-genetic individual-based modeling, we demonstrated that fishing-induced evolution of skipped spawning and size truncation interacted to shape the observed temporal changes in mean catch lengths for tuna. Skipped spawning of the small adults led to increased mean catch lengths for the longline fisheries, while truncation of small adults by the purse seines could offset such a pattern. Our results highlight the eco-evolutionary dynamics of fishing effects on population demography and caution against using demographic traits as a basis for fisheries management of the Pacific bluefin tuna as well as other migratory species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach

PubMed Central

Boitard, Simon; Rodríguez, Willy; Jay, Flora; Mona, Stefano; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2016-01-01

Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles. PMID:26943927

The influence of simulated exploitation on Patella vulgata populations: protandric sex change is size-dependent.

PubMed

Borges, Carla D G; Hawkins, Stephen J; Crowe, Tasman P; Doncaster, C Patrick

2016-01-01

Grazing mollusks are used as a food resource worldwide, and limpets are harvested commercially for both local consumption and export in several countries. This study describes a field experiment to assess the effects of simulated human exploitation of limpets Patella vulgata on their population ecology in terms of protandry (age-related sex change from male to female), growth, recruitment, migration, and density regulation. Limpet populations at two locations in southwest England were artificially exploited by systematic removal of the largest individuals for 18 months in plots assigned to three treatments at each site: no (control), low, and high exploitation. The shell size at sex change (L 50: the size at which there is a 50:50 sex ratio) decreased in response to the exploitation treatments, as did the mean shell size of sexual stages. Size-dependent sex change was indicated by L 50 occurring at smaller sizes in treatments than controls, suggesting an earlier switch to females. Mean shell size of P. vulgata neuters changed little under different levels of exploitation, while males and females both decreased markedly in size with exploitation. No differences were detected in the relative abundances of sexual stages, indicating some compensation for the removal of the bigger individuals via recruitment and sex change as no migratory patterns were detected between treatments. At the end of the experiment, 0-15 mm recruits were more abundant at one of the locations but no differences were detected between treatments. We conclude that sex change in P. vulgata can be induced at smaller sizes by reductions in density of the largest individuals reducing interage class competition. Knowledge of sex-change adaptation in exploited limpet populations should underpin strategies to counteract population decline and improve rocky shore conservation and resource management.

Variation in Age and Size in Fennoscandian Three-Spined Sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

PubMed Central

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2013-01-01

Average age and maximum life span of breeding adult three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were determined in eight Fennoscandian localities with the aid of skeletochronology. The average age varied from 1.8 to 3.6 years, and maximum life span from three to six years depending on the locality. On average, fish from marine populations were significantly older than those from freshwater populations, but variation within habitat types was large. We also found significant differences in mean body size among different habitat types and populations, but only the population differences remained significant after accounting for variation due to age effects. These results show that generation length and longevity in three-spined sticklebacks can vary significantly from one locality to another, and that population differences in mean body size cannot be explained as a simple consequence of differences in population age structure. We also describe a nanistic population from northern Finland exhibiting long life span and small body size. PMID:24260496

Variation in age and size in Fennoscandian three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

PubMed

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2013-01-01

Average age and maximum life span of breeding adult three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were determined in eight Fennoscandian localities with the aid of skeletochronology. The average age varied from 1.8 to 3.6 years, and maximum life span from three to six years depending on the locality. On average, fish from marine populations were significantly older than those from freshwater populations, but variation within habitat types was large. We also found significant differences in mean body size among different habitat types and populations, but only the population differences remained significant after accounting for variation due to age effects. These results show that generation length and longevity in three-spined sticklebacks can vary significantly from one locality to another, and that population differences in mean body size cannot be explained as a simple consequence of differences in population age structure. We also describe a nanistic population from northern Finland exhibiting long life span and small body size.

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Both size-frequency distribution and sub-populations of the main-belt asteroid population are consistent with YORP-induced rotational fission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, S.; Scheeres, D.; Rossi, A.; Marzari, F.; Davis, D.

2014-07-01

From the results of a comprehensive asteroid-population-evolution model, we conclude that the YORP-induced rotational-fission hypothesis has strong repercussions for the small size end of the main-belt asteroid size-frequency distribution and is consistent with observed asteroid-population statistics and with the observed sub-populations of binary asteroids, asteroid pairs and contact binaries. The foundation of this model is the asteroid-rotation model of Marzari et al. (2011) and Rossi et al. (2009), which incorporates both the YORP effect and collisional evolution. This work adds to that model the rotational fission hypothesis (i.e. when the rotation rate exceeds a critical value, erosion and binary formation occur; Scheeres 2007) and binary-asteroid evolution (Jacobson & Scheeres, 2011). The YORP-effect timescale for large asteroids with diameters D > ˜ 6 km is longer than the collision timescale in the main belt, thus the frequency of large asteroids is determined by a collisional equilibrium (e.g. Bottke 2005), but for small asteroids with diameters D < ˜ 6 km, the asteroid-population evolution model confirms that YORP-induced rotational fission destroys small asteroids more frequently than collisions. Therefore, the frequency of these small asteroids is determined by an equilibrium between the creation of new asteroids out of the impact debris of larger asteroids and the destruction of these asteroids by YORP-induced rotational fission. By introducing a new source of destruction that varies strongly with size, YORP-induced rotational fission alters the slope of the size-frequency distribution. Using the outputs of the asteroid-population evolution model and a 1-D collision evolution model, we can generate this new size-frequency distribution and it matches the change in slope observed by the SKADS survey (Gladman 2009). This agreement is achieved with both an accretional power-law or a truncated ''Asteroids were Born Big'' size-frequency distribution

Relationship between obesity and other risk factors and skin disease among adult Saudi population.

PubMed

Khalil, Ghada M; Al Shobaili, Hani A; Alzolibani, Abdullateef; Al Robaee, Ahmad

2011-01-01

Obesity is accused for a wide spectrum of dermatologic diseases; no previous follow-up study has been conducted to investigate these conditions in adult male and female Saudi population. To describe obesity pattern using BMI and to assess the association between obesity and certain skin diseases among adult Saudi population. A retrospective cohort study of 2-year duration was conducted. The study sample was randomly selected from dermatology clinics at Qassim. Male cohorts were 61 obese adults and 48 nonobese adults. Female cohorts were 32 obese adults and 36 nonobese adults. Measurement of BMI, waist-hip ratio, fasting glucose, blood pressure, and dermatological examination was performed. Skin disease incidence was significantly increased among exposed rather than nonexposed cohorts with a relative risk of 2.3 in male cohort and 2.3 in female cohort. Acanthosis nigricans and striae distensae incidence increased in exposed men and women with highly significant difference from nonexposed groups. Skin tag incidence significantly increased in the exposed male cohorts only but not the female cohort. Hirsutism, dry skin, pruritis, and planter keratosis all showed nonsignificant differences. The most frequently reported infections in obese men were tinea pedis (18%), intertrigo (14.7%), and bacterial folliculitis (13.1%) with significant difference. BMI was the only risk factor that regresses on skin disease occurrence in study groups. Our study linked incidence of acanthosis nigricans and striae distensae to obesity in both female and male adult population but showed sex difference for other skin diseases, which raised many questions and requires further longer duration follow-up studies.

Management of aggressive B cell NHLs in the AYA population: an adult versus pediatric perspective.

PubMed

Dunleavy, Kieron; Gross, Thomas G

2018-06-12

The adolescents and young adult (AYA) population represent a group where mature B-cell lymphomas constitute a significant proportion of the overall malignancies that occur. Among these are aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHLs) which are predominantly diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), primary mediastinal B-cell lymphoma (PMBCL) and Burkitt lymphoma (BL). For the most part, there is remarkable divide in how pediatric/adolescent patients (under the age of 18 years) with lymphoma are treated versus their young adult counterparts and molecular data are lacking, especially in pediatric and AYA series. The outcome for AYA patients with cancers has historically been inferior to that of children or older adults, highlighting the necessity to focus on this population. This review discusses the pediatric versus adult perspective in terms of how these diseases are understood and approached and emphasizes the importance of collaborative efforts in both developing consensus for treatment of this population and planning future research endeavors. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Hematology.

Effect of distance-related heterogeneity on population size estimates from point counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, Murray G.; Dawson, Deanna K.

2009-01-01

Point counts are used widely to index bird populations. Variation in the proportion of birds counted is a known source of error, and for robust inference it has been advocated that counts be converted to estimates of absolute population size. We used simulation to assess nine methods for the conduct and analysis of point counts when the data included distance-related heterogeneity of individual detection probability. Distance from the observer is a ubiquitous source of heterogeneity, because nearby birds are more easily detected than distant ones. Several recent methods (dependent double-observer, time of first detection, time of detection, independent multiple-observer, and repeated counts) do not account for distance-related heterogeneity, at least in their simpler forms. We assessed bias in estimates of population size by simulating counts with fixed radius w over four time intervals (occasions). Detection probability per occasion was modeled as a half-normal function of distance with scale parameter sigma and intercept g(0) = 1.0. Bias varied with sigma/w; values of sigma inferred from published studies were often 50% for a 100-m fixed-radius count. More critically, the bias of adjusted counts sometimes varied more than that of unadjusted counts, and inference from adjusted counts would be less robust. The problem was not solved by using mixture models or including distance as a covariate. Conventional distance sampling performed well in simulations, but its assumptions are difficult to meet in the field. We conclude that no existing method allows effective estimation of population size from point counts.

Levels of Engagement and Barriers to Physical Activity in a Population of Adults with Learning Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawkins, Andrew; Look, Roger

2006-01-01

This study examined levels of, and barriers to, physical activity in a population of 19 adults with learning disabilities living in community supported accommodation, using diary records and semi-structured interviews with staff. The levels of physical activity were higher in the sample population than previous figures for adults with learning…

Acceptability of the Kalman filter to monitor pronghorn population size

Treesearch

Raymond L. Czaplewski

1986-01-01

Pronghorn antelope are important components of grassland and steppe ecosystems in Wyoming. Monitoring data on the size and population dynamics of these herds are expensive and gathered only a few times each year. Reliable data include estimates of animals harvested and proportion of bucks, does, and fawns. A deterministic simulation model has been used to improve...

A cautionary note on Bayesian estimation of population size by removal sampling with diffuse priors.

PubMed

Bord, Séverine; Bioche, Christèle; Druilhet, Pierre

2018-05-01

We consider the problem of estimating a population size by removal sampling when the sampling rate is unknown. Bayesian methods are now widespread and allow to include prior knowledge in the analysis. However, we show that Bayes estimates based on default improper priors lead to improper posteriors or infinite estimates. Similarly, weakly informative priors give unstable estimators that are sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters. By examining the likelihood, we show that population size estimates can be stabilized by penalizing small values of the sampling rate or large value of the population size. Based on theoretical results and simulation studies, we propose some recommendations on the choice of the prior. Then, we applied our results to real datasets. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

2017-12-22

Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting

Population Size and Suicide in U.S. Cities: A Static and Dynamic Exploration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCall, Patricia L.; Tittle, Charles R.

2007-01-01

The relationship between city population size and suicide rates rarely has been examined directly, though scholars often assume such a relationship exists based on studies of the association between suicide rates and urbanization (percent of the population living in cities) in various social contexts. In an effort to determine the basic…

Experimental evaluation of size-dependent predation by adult post-spawned rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on larval lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Gorsky, Dimitry

2013-01-01

Introduced landlocked Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are hypothesized to be a major factor in the decline of Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis populations in many lakes. We sought to identify the size of Lake Whitefish preyed upon by adult Rainbow Smelt and how the efficiency of Rainbow Smelt predation changes Lake Whitefish ontogeny. In a laboratory setting, we exposed larval Lake Whitefish of increasing sizes to groups of seven Rainbow Smelt (>100 mm) for a 1-h period and observed predation behaviors and efficiencies. In each trial, the group of Rainbow Smelt consumed at least one larval Lake Whitefish, which were up to 45 mm in length (up to 89% of Rainbow Smelt gape width). Predation efficiency, the total number of Lake Whitefish consumed by Rainbow Smelt during trials, was 100% after Lake Whitefish hatching and followed a decreasing sigmoidal response to increasing lengths of Lake Whitefish. The apparent predatory window of Rainbow Smelt on Lake Whitefish is from Lake Whitefish size at hatch (∼12 mm) to approximately 34 mm. Rainbow Smelt generally required multiple attacks to capture a single Lake Whitefish. The capture efficiencies of Rainbow Smelt decreased from 30% as Lake Whitefish length increased and were highly variable within each Lake Whitefish size-group. The overall impact that Rainbow Smelt predation will have on Lake Whitefish populations is dependent on the growth rate of Lake Whitefish, environmental conditions that cause the Lake Whitefish hatching period to coincide with Rainbow Smelt spawning events, and the degree of overlap in habitat use between spawning Rainbow Smelt, nonspawning subadult Rainbow Smelt, and hatching Lake Whitefish.

A fitness trade-off between seasons causes multigenerational cycles in phenotype and population size

PubMed Central

Betini, Gustavo S; McAdam, Andrew G; Griswold, Cortland K; Norris, D Ryan

2017-01-01

Although seasonality is widespread and can cause fluctuations in the intensity and direction of natural selection, we have little information about the consequences of seasonal fitness trade-offs for population dynamics. Here we exposed populations of Drosophila melanogaster to repeated seasonal changes in resources across 58 generations and used experimental and mathematical approaches to investigate how viability selection on body size in the non-breeding season could affect demography. We show that opposing seasonal episodes of natural selection on body size interacted with both direct and delayed density dependence to cause populations to undergo predictable multigenerational density cycles. Our results provide evidence that seasonality can set the conditions for life-history trade-offs and density dependence, which can, in turn, interact to cause multigenerational population cycles. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18770.001 PMID:28164780

How to control chaotic behaviour and population size with proportional feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liz, Eduardo

2010-01-01

We study the control of chaos in one-dimensional discrete maps as they often occur in modelling population dynamics. For managing the population, we seek to suppress any possible chaotic behavior, leading the system to a stable equilibrium. In this Letter, we make a rigorous analysis of the proportional feedback method under certain conditions fulfilled by a wide family of maps. We show that it is possible to stabilize the chaotic dynamics towards a globally stable positive equilibrium, that can be chosen among a broad range of possible values. In particular, the size of the population can be enhanced by control in form of population reduction. This paradoxical phenomenon is known as the hydra effect, and it has important implications in the design of strategies in such areas as fishing, pest management, and conservation biology.

Flow management and fish density regulate salmonid recruitment and adult size in tailwaters across western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Budy, Phaedra E.

2015-01-01

The mean lengths of adult rainbow and brown trout were influenced by similar flow and catch metrics. Length in both species was positively correlated with high annual flow but declined in tailwaters with high daily fluctuations in flow, high catch rates of conspecifics, and when large cohorts recruited to adult size. Whereas brown trout did not respond to the proportion of water allocated between seasons, rainbow trout length increased in rivers that released more water during winter than in spring. Rainbow trout length was primarily related to high catch rates of conspecifics, whereas brown trout length was mainly related to large cohorts recruiting to the adult size class. Species-specific responses to flow management are likely attributable to differences in seasonal timing of key life history events such as spawning, egg hatching, and fry emergence.

Estimated Full Scale IQ in an Adult Heroin Addict Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chastain, Robert L.; And Others

The research concerning intellectual functioning in addict populations has not addressed basic questions concerning why and how intelligence quotients (IQ) might be related to drug addiction. A study was undertaken to estimate intellectual functioning based upon a demographic profile for Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised (WAIS-R) Full…

Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, E.V.; Lunn, N.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2007-01-01

Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as

Prevalence and associated factors with alcohol use disorders among adults: a population-based study in southern Brazil.

PubMed

Reisdorfer, Emilene; Büchele, Fátima; Pires, Rodrigo Otávio Moretti; Boing, Antonio Fernando

2012-09-01

The study aimed to describe the prevalence of alcohol use disorders in an adult population from Brazil and its association with demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral variables and health conditions. A population-based cross-sectional survey was conducted with adults (20 to 59 years) of a medium-sized city in Southern Brazil with a random sample of 1,720 individuals. Cluster sampling was done in two stages: census tract first and household second. Alcohol use disorders were measured using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and associations were tested with selected variables by Poisson Regression. Results of multivariate analysis were expressed as prevalence ratios. The prevalence of alcohol use disorders in the population was 18.4% (95% CI: 16.6% - 20.3%), higher among men (29.9%) than in women (9.3%). The prevalence of abstinence was 30.6%; 6.8% of respondents had already caused problems to themselves or to others after drinking; and 10.3% reported that a relative, friend or doctor had already shown concern on their drinking. After multivariate analysis, an association with alcohol use disorders remained for: being male, age 20 to 29 years, being single, declaring to be light-skinned blacks and being an ex-smoker or current smoker. The prevalence of alcohol use disorders identified is high compared with other similar studies, with differences according to being male, age 20 to 29, skin color and tobacco use. These issues must be considered in formulating public health policies aimed at reducing problems related to alcohol use.

Within-Group Effect-Size Benchmarks for Problem-Solving Therapy for Depression in Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubin, Allen; Yu, Miao

2017-01-01

This article provides benchmark data on within-group effect sizes from published randomized clinical trials that supported the efficacy of problem-solving therapy (PST) for depression among adults. Benchmarks are broken down by type of depression (major or minor), type of outcome measure (interview or self-report scale), whether PST was provided…

A new mechanistic approach for the further development of a population with established size bimodality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heerman, Lisa; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Borcherding, Jost

2017-01-01

Usually, the origin of a within-cohort bimodal size distribution is assumed to be caused by initial size differences or by one discrete period of accelerated growth for one part of the population. The aim of this study was to determine if more continuous pathways exist allowing shifts from the small to the large fraction within a bimodal age-cohort. Therefore, a Eurasian perch population, which had already developed a bimodal size-distribution and had differential resource use of the two size-cohorts, was examined. Results revealed that formation of a bimodal size-distribution can be a continuous process. Perch from the small size-cohort were able to grow into the large size-cohort by feeding on macroinvertebrates not used by their conspecifics. The diet shifts were accompanied by morphological shape changes. Intra-specific competition seemed to trigger the development towards an increasing number of large individuals. A stage-structured matrix model confirmed these assumptions. The fact that bimodality can be a continuous process is important to consider for the understanding of ecological processes and links within ecosystems.

A new mechanistic approach for the further development of a population with established size bimodality

PubMed Central

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Borcherding, Jost

2017-01-01

Usually, the origin of a within-cohort bimodal size distribution is assumed to be caused by initial size differences or by one discrete period of accelerated growth for one part of the population. The aim of this study was to determine if more continuous pathways exist allowing shifts from the small to the large fraction within a bimodal age-cohort. Therefore, a Eurasian perch population, which had already developed a bimodal size-distribution and had differential resource use of the two size-cohorts, was examined. Results revealed that formation of a bimodal size-distribution can be a continuous process. Perch from the small size-cohort were able to grow into the large size-cohort by feeding on macroinvertebrates not used by their conspecifics. The diet shifts were accompanied by morphological shape changes. Intra-specific competition seemed to trigger the development towards an increasing number of large individuals. A stage-structured matrix model confirmed these assumptions. The fact that bimodality can be a continuous process is important to consider for the understanding of ecological processes and links within ecosystems. PMID:28650963

Larval Population Density Alters Adult Sleep in Wild-Type Drosophila melanogaster but Not in Amnesiac Mutant Flies

PubMed Central

Chi, Michael W.; Griffith, Leslie C.; Vecsey, Christopher G.

2014-01-01

Sleep has many important biological functions, but how sleep is regulated remains poorly understood. In humans, social isolation and other stressors early in life can disrupt adult sleep. In fruit flies housed at different population densities during early adulthood, social enrichment was shown to increase subsequent sleep, but it is unknown if population density during early development can also influence adult sleep. To answer this question, we maintained Drosophila larvae at a range of population densities throughout larval development, kept them isolated during early adulthood, and then tested their sleep patterns. Our findings reveal that flies that had been isolated as larvae had more fragmented sleep than those that had been raised at higher population densities. This effect was more prominent in females than in males. Larval population density did not affect sleep in female flies that were mutant for amnesiac, which has been shown to be required for normal memory consolidation, adult sleep regulation, and brain development. In contrast, larval population density effects on sleep persisted in female flies lacking the olfactory receptor or83b, suggesting that olfactory signals are not required for the effects of larval population density on adult sleep. These findings show that population density during early development can alter sleep behavior in adulthood, suggesting that genetic and/or structural changes are induced by this developmental manipulation that persist through metamorphosis. PMID:25116571

Larval Population Density Alters Adult Sleep in Wild-Type Drosophila melanogaster but Not in Amnesiac Mutant Flies.

PubMed

Chi, Michael W; Griffith, Leslie C; Vecsey, Christopher G

2014-08-11

Sleep has many important biological functions, but how sleep is regulated remains poorly understood. In humans, social isolation and other stressors early in life can disrupt adult sleep. In fruit flies housed at different population densities during early adulthood, social enrichment was shown to increase subsequent sleep, but it is unknown if population density during early development can also influence adult sleep. To answer this question, we maintained Drosophila larvae at a range of population densities throughout larval development, kept them isolated during early adulthood, and then tested their sleep patterns. Our findings reveal that flies that had been isolated as larvae had more fragmented sleep than those that had been raised at higher population densities. This effect was more prominent in females than in males. Larval population density did not affect sleep in female flies that were mutant for amnesiac, which has been shown to be required for normal memory consolidation, adult sleep regulation, and brain development. In contrast, larval population density effects on sleep persisted in female flies lacking the olfactory receptor or83b, suggesting that olfactory signals are not required for the effects of larval population density on adult sleep. These findings show that population density during early development can alter sleep behavior in adulthood, suggesting that genetic and/or structural changes are induced by this developmental manipulation that persist through metamorphosis.

Towards a theory of cortical columns: From spiking neurons to interacting neural populations of finite size.

PubMed

Schwalger, Tilo; Deger, Moritz; Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-04-01

Neural population equations such as neural mass or field models are widely used to study brain activity on a large scale. However, the relation of these models to the properties of single neurons is unclear. Here we derive an equation for several interacting populations at the mesoscopic scale starting from a microscopic model of randomly connected generalized integrate-and-fire neuron models. Each population consists of 50-2000 neurons of the same type but different populations account for different neuron types. The stochastic population equations that we find reveal how spike-history effects in single-neuron dynamics such as refractoriness and adaptation interact with finite-size fluctuations on the population level. Efficient integration of the stochastic mesoscopic equations reproduces the statistical behavior of the population activities obtained from microscopic simulations of a full spiking neural network model. The theory describes nonlinear emergent dynamics such as finite-size-induced stochastic transitions in multistable networks and synchronization in balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. The mesoscopic equations are employed to rapidly integrate a model of a cortical microcircuit consisting of eight neuron types, which allows us to predict spontaneous population activities as well as evoked responses to thalamic input. Our theory establishes a general framework for modeling finite-size neural population dynamics based on single cell and synapse parameters and offers an efficient approach to analyzing cortical circuits and computations.

Correlates of Sexual Abuse and Smoking among French Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Gary; Guilbert, Philippe; Ward, D. Gant; Arwidson, Pierre; Noubary, Farzad

2006-01-01

Objective: The goal of this study was to examine the association between sexual abuse (SA) and initiation, cessation, and current cigarette smoking among a large representative adult population in France. Method: A random sample size of 12,256 adults (18-75 years of age) was interviewed by telephone concerning demographic variables, health…

Sexual function in adolescent and young adult cancer survivors-a population-based study.

PubMed

Olsson, Maria; Steineck, Gunnar; Enskär, Karin; Wilderäng, Ulrica; Jarfelt, Marianne

2018-03-05

Previous research has established that treatments for cancer can result in short- and long-term effects on sexual function in adult cancer patients. The purpose was to investigate patient-reported physical and psychosexual complications in adolescents and young adults after they have undergone treatment for cancer. In this population-based study, a study-specific questionnaire was developed by a method used in several previous investigations carried out by our research group, Clinical Cancer Epidemiology. The questionnaire was developed in collaboration with adolescent and young adult cancer survivors (15-29 years) and validated by professionals from oncology units, midwives, epidemiologists, and statisticians. The topics covered in the questionnaire were psychosocial health, body image, sexuality, fertility, education, work, and leisure. The web-based questionnaire was sent to adolescent and young adult cancer survivors and matched controls in Sweden. In this study, adolescent and young adult cancer survivors (15-29 years) showed low satisfaction regarding sexual function compared to controls (P < 0.01). Female adolescent and young adult cancer survivors had a statistically significant lower frequency of orgasm during sexual activity than the controls (P < 0.01). Male adolescent and young adult cancer survivors had statistically significant lower sexual desire than the controls (P = 0.04). We found that adolescent and young adult cancer survivors perceived themselves as being less satisfied with their sexual function than matched population-based controls. Adolescent and young adult cancer survivors need psychological rehabilitation support from the health care profession during and after cancer treatment to help them to reduce their reported poor sexual function to enhance a good sexual quality of life.

Problematic Video Game Play and ADHD Traits in an Adult Population.

PubMed

Panagiotidi, Maria

2017-05-01

This study examined the relationship between problematic video game play (PVGP), video game usage, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) traits in an adult population. A sample of 205 healthy adult volunteers completed the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale (ASRS), a video game usage questionnaire, and the Problem Video Game Playing Test (PVGT). A significant positive correlation was found between the ASRS and the PVGT. More specifically, inattention symptoms and time spent playing video games were the best predictors of PVGP. No relationship was found between frequency and duration of play and ADHD traits. Hyperactivity symptoms were not associated with PVGP. Our results suggest that there is a positive relationship between ADHD traits and problematic video game play. In particular, adults with higher level of self-reported inattention symptoms could be at higher risk of PVGP.

cloncase: Estimation of sex frequency and effective population size by clonemate resampling in partially clonal organisms.