NSF's Perspective on Space Weather Research for Building Forecasting Capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Azeem, S. I.

2017-12-01

Space weather research at the National Science Foundation (NSF) is focused on scientific discovery and on deepening knowledge of the Sun-Geospace system. The process of maturation of knowledge base is a requirement for the development of improved space weather forecast models and for the accurate assessment of potential mitigation strategies. Progress in space weather forecasting requires advancing in-depth understanding of the underlying physical processes, developing better instrumentation and measurement techniques, and capturing the advancements in understanding in large-scale physics based models that span the entire chain of events from the Sun to the Earth. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned programs pertaining to space weather research at NSF and discuss the recommendations of the Geospace Section portfolio review panel within the context of space weather forecasting capabilities.

Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, N. J.; Lindstrom, K. L.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Anderson, B. J.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Merkin, V. G.; Kelly, M. A.; Miller, E. S.; Sitnov, M. I.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Erlandson, R. E.; Barnes, R. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Sotirelis, T.; Stephens, G.; Comberiate, J.

2014-12-01

National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL, and examine how they could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; MacNeice, P.

2010-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of space weather forecasting tools. Owing to the pace of development in the science community, new model capabilities emerge frequently. Consequently, space weather products and tools involve not only increased validity, but often entirely new capabilities. This presentation will review the present state of space weather tools as well as point out emerging future capabilities.

Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, N. J.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Merkin, V. G.; Stephens, G. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Barnes, R. J.; Anderson, B. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Kelly, M. A.; Berger, T. E.; Bonadonna, L. C. M. F.; Hesse, M.; Sharma, S.

2015-12-01

National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review the space weather system developed for the Van Allen Probes mission, together with other datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL. We will look at how these, and results from future missions such as Solar Probe Plus, could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

THOR contribution to space weather science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaivads, A.; Opgenoorth, H. J.; Retino, A.; Khotyaintsev, Y. V.; Soucek, J.; Valentini, F.; Escoubet, C. P.; Chen, C. H. K.; Vainio, R. O.; Fazakerley, A. N.; Lavraud, B.; Narita, Y.; Marcucci, M. F.; Kucharek, H.; Bale, S. D.; Moore, T. E.; Kistler, L. M.; Samara, M.

2016-12-01

Turbulence Heating ObserveR - THOR is a mission proposal to study energy dissipation and particle acceleration in turbulent space plasma. THOR will focus on turbulent plasma in pristine solar wind, bow shock and magnetosheath. The orbit of THOR is tuned to spend long times in those regions allowing THOR to obtain high resolution data sets that can be used also for space weather science. Here we will discuss the space weather science questions that can be addressed and significantly advanced using THOR. Link to THOR: http://thor.irfu.se.

Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanzerotti, L. J.

2012-12-01

There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

Space Weather Models at the CCMC And Their Capabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, Michael; Rastatter, Lutz; MacNeice, Peter; Kuznetsova, Masha

2007-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second focus of CCMC activities is on validation and verification of space weather models, and on the transition of appropriate models to space weather forecast centers. As part of the latter activity, the CCMC develops real-time simulation systems that stress models through routine execution. A by-product of these real-time calculations is the ability to derive model products, which may be useful for space weather operators. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the community-provided, space weather-relevant, model suite, which resides at CCMC. We will discuss current capabilities, and analyze expected future developments of space weather related modeling.

Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapgood, Mike

2017-01-01

Space weather-changes in the Earth's environment that can often be traced to physical processes in the Sun-can have a profound impact on critical Earth-based infrastructures such as power grids and civil aviation. Violent eruptions on the solar surface can eject huge clouds of magnetized plasma and particle radiation, which then propagate across interplanetary space and envelop the Earth. These space weather events can drive major changes in a variety of terrestrial environments, which can disrupt, or even damage, many of the technological systems that underpin modern societies. The aim of this book is to offer an insight into our current scientific understanding of space weather, and how we can use that knowledge to mitigate the risks it poses for Earth-based technologies. It also identifies some key challenges for future space-weather research, and considers how emerging technological developments may introduce new risks that will drive continuing investigation.

Asteroids: Does Space Weathering Matter?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaffey, Michael J.

2001-01-01

The interpretive calibrations and methodologies used to extract mineralogy from asteroidal spectra appear to remain valid until the space weathering process is advanced to a degree which appears to be rare or absent on asteroid surfaces. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Zheng, Yihua; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Maria; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Mays, Leila; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook

2012-01-01

The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

Space Weather: Where Is The Beef?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koskinen, H. E. J.

Space weather has become a highly fashionable topic in solar-terrestrial physics. It is perhaps the best tool to popularise the field and it has contributed significantly to the dialogue between solar, magnetospheric, and ionospheric scientist, and also to mu- tual understanding between science and engineering communities. While these are laudable achievements, it is important for the integrity of scientific space weather re- search to recognise the central open questions in the physics of space weather and the progress toward solving them. We still lack sufficient understanding of the solar physics to be able to tell in advance when and where a solar eruption will take place and whether it will turn to a geoeffective event. There is much to do to understand ac- celeration of solar energetic particles and propagation of solar mass ejecta toward the Earth. After more than 40 years of research scientific discussion of energy and plasma transfer through the magnetopause still deals mostly with qualitative issues and the rapid acceleration processes in the magnetosphere are not yet explained in a satisfac- tory way. Also the coupling to the ionosphere and from there to the strong induction effects on ground is another complex of research problems. For space weather science the beef is in the investigation of these and related topics, not in marketing half-useful space weather products to hesitant customers.

NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

2012-01-01

The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.

2017-12-01

The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) details the activities, outcomes, and timelines to build a "Space Weather Ready Nation." NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and Abt Associates are working together on two SWAP initiatives: (1) identifying, describing, and quantifying the socio-economic impacts of moderate and severe space weather; and (2) outreach to engineers and operators to better understand user requirements for space weather products and services. Both studies cover four technological sectors (electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and GNSS users) and rely heavily on industry input. Findings from both studies are essential for decreasing vulnerabilities and enhancing preparedness.

Overview of NASA Heliophysics and the Science of Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talaat, E. R.

2017-12-01

In this paper, an overview is presented on the various activities within NASA that address space weather-related observations, model development, and research to operations. Specific to space weather, NASA formulates and implements, through the Heliophysics division, a national research program for understanding the Sun and its interactions with the Earth and the Solar System and how these phenomena impact life and society. NASA researches and prototypes new mission and instrument capabilities in this area, providing new physics-based algorithms to advance the state of solar, space physics, and space weather modeling.

Workshop Report on Space Weather Risks and Society

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Langhoff, Stephanie R.; Straume, Tore

2012-01-01

As technological innovations produce new capabilities, complexities, and interdependencies, our susceptibility to the societal impacts of space weather increase. There is real concern in the scientific community that our infrastructure would be at significant risk if a major geomagnetic storm should occur. To discuss the societal impacts of space weather, we brought together an interdisciplinary group of subject matter experts and societal stakeholders to participate in a workshop entitled Space Weather Risks and Society. The workshop was held at Ames Research Center (ARC) on 15-16 October 2011. The workshop was co-sponsored by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center (LMATC), the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA), and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL, part of the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council STFC). The workshop is part of a series of informal weekend workshops hosted by Center Director Pete Worden.

Review on space weather in Latin America. 1. The beginning from space science research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo

2016-11-01

The present work is the first of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. It comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960s, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this review is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues.

Climate, weather, space weather: model development in an operational context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folini, Doris

2018-05-01

Aspects of operational modeling for climate, weather, and space weather forecasts are contrasted, with a particular focus on the somewhat conflicting demands of "operational stability" versus "dynamic development" of the involved models. Some common key elements are identified, indicating potential for fruitful exchange across communities. Operational model development is compelling, driven by factors that broadly fall into four categories: model skill, basic physics, advances in computer architecture, and new aspects to be covered, from costumer needs over physics to observational data. Evaluation of model skill as part of the operational chain goes beyond an automated skill score. Permanent interaction between "pure research" and "operational forecast" people is beneficial to both sides. This includes joint model development projects, although ultimate responsibility for the operational code remains with the forecast provider. The pace of model development reflects operational lead times. The points are illustrated with selected examples, many of which reflect the author's background and personal contacts, notably with the Swiss Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. In view of current and future challenges, large collaborations covering a range of expertise are a must - within and across climate, weather, and space weather. To profit from and cope with the rapid progress of computer architectures, supercompute centers must form part of the team.

Concept for an International Standard related to Space Weather Effects on Space Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. Kent; Tomky, Alyssa

There is great interest in developing an international standard related to space weather in order to specify the tools and parameters needed for space systems operations. In particular, a standard is important for satellite operators who may not be familiar with space weather. In addition, there are others who participate in space systems operations that would also benefit from such a document. For example, the developers of software systems that provide LEO satellite orbit determination, radio communication availability for scintillation events (GEO-to-ground L and UHF bands), GPS uncertainties, and the radiation environment from ground-to-space for commercial space tourism. These groups require recent historical data, current epoch specification, and forecast of space weather events into their automated or manual systems. Other examples are national government agencies that rely on space weather data provided by their organizations such as those represented in the International Space Environment Service (ISES) group of 14 national agencies. Designers, manufacturers, and launchers of space systems require real-time, operational space weather parameters that can be measured, monitored, or built into automated systems. Thus, a broad scope for the document will provide a useful international standard product to a variety of engineering and science domains. The structure of the document should contain a well-defined scope, consensus space weather terms and definitions, and internationally accepted descriptions of the main elements of space weather, its sources, and its effects upon space systems. Appendices will be useful for describing expanded material such as guidelines on how to use the standard, how to obtain specific space weather parameters, and short but detailed descriptions such as when best to use some parameters and not others; appendices provide a path for easily updating the standard since the domain of space weather is rapidly changing with new advances

Space weather services: now and in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunches, J.; Murtagh, W.

The NOAA Space Environment Center has provided continuous 24 hours per day 7 days per week space weather products and services to the United States and the international community via the International Space Environment Service for more than 30 years Over that time span an evolutionary process has occurred In the early days the products consisted of short text and coded messages to accommodate the communications technologies of the period The birth of the Internet made the sharing of graphical imagery and real-time data possible enabling service providers to communicate more information more quickly to the users Now in parallel with the advances in telecommunications the space weather user community has grown dramatically and is enunciating ever-stronger requirements back to the service providers The commercial airline community is probably the best example of an industry wanting more from space weather How are the users going to continue to change over the next 10-20 years and what services might they need How will they get this information and how might they use it This is the overall thrust of the presentation offering a look to the future and a challenge to the space weather community

Space Weather Models and Their Validation and Verification at the CCMC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, Michael

2010-01-01

The Community Coordinated l\\lodeling Center (CCMC) is a US multi-agency activity with a dual mission. With equal emphasis, CCMC strives to provide science support to the international space research community through the execution of advanced space plasma simulations, and it endeavors to support the space weather needs of the CS and partners. Space weather support involves a broad spectrum, from designing robust forecasting systems and transitioning them to forecasters, to providing space weather updates and forecasts to NASA's robotic mission operators. All of these activities have to rely on validation and verification of models and their products, so users and forecasters have the means to assign confidence levels to the space weather information. In this presentation, we provide an overview of space weather models resident at CCMC, as well as of validation and verification activities undertaken at CCMC or through the use of CCMC services.

Training Early Career Space Weather Researchers and other Space Weather Professionals at the CISM Space Weather Summer School

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.

2011-12-01

This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.

NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard;

Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, G.; Jones, B.

2006-12-01

The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

CCMC: Serving research and space weather communities with unique space weather services, innovative tools and resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Maddox, Marlo

2015-04-01

With the addition of Space Weather Research Center (a sub-team within CCMC) in 2010 to address NASA’s own space weather needs, CCMC has become a unique entity that not only facilitates research through providing access to the state-of-the-art space science and space weather models, but also plays a critical role in providing unique space weather services to NASA robotic missions, developing innovative tools and transitioning research to operations via user feedback. With scientists, forecasters and software developers working together within one team, through close and direct connection with space weather customers and trusted relationship with model developers, CCMC is flexible, nimble and effective to meet customer needs. In this presentation, we highlight a few unique aspects of CCMC/SWRC’s space weather services, such as addressing space weather throughout the solar system, pushing the frontier of space weather forecasting via the ensemble approach, providing direct personnel and tool support for spacecraft anomaly resolution, prompting development of multi-purpose tools and knowledge bases, and educating and engaging the next generation of space weather scientists.

Space Weather Services of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Park, S.; Kim, Y. Y.; Wi, G.

2015-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

Space Weather Services of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, KiChang; Kim, Jae-Hun; Kim, Young Yun; Kwon, Yongki; Wi, Gwan-sik

2016-07-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

Space Weather Services of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

2016-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

Space Weathering of Lunar Rocks and Regolith Grains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, L. P.

2013-01-01

) are the primary agent in spectral "reddening". More recent work has focused on the nature and abundance of OH/H2O in the lunar regolith using orbital data and samples analyses. Advances in sample preparation techniques have made possible detailed analyses of patina-coated rock surfaces. Major advances are occurring in quantifying the rates and efficiency of space weathering processes through laboratory experimentation.

Space Weather Impacts to Mariners

Science.gov Websites

Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts SPACE WEATHER IMPACTS TO MARINERS Marine present an even greater danger near shore or any shallow waters? Space Weather Impacts to Mariners Don't ), Notices to Mariners, Special Paragraphs: "(73) SPACE WEATHER IMPACTS. There is a growing potential

Book Review: Dolores Knipp’s Understanding Space Weather and the Physics Behind It

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moldwin, Mark

2012-08-01

Delores Knipp's textbook Understanding Space Weather and the Physics Behind It provides a comprehensive resource for space physicists teaching in a variety of academic departments to introduce space weather to advanced undergraduates. The book benefits from Knipp's extensive experience teaching introductory and advanced undergraduate physics courses at the U.S. Air Force Academy. The fundamental physics concepts are clearly explained and are connected directly to the space physics concepts being discussed. To expand upon the relevant basic physics, current research areas and new observations are highlighted, with many of the chapters including contributions from a number of leading space physicists.

Space Weather Forecasting: An Enigma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sojka, J. J.

2012-12-01

The space age began in earnest on October 4, 1957 with the launch of Sputnik 1 and was fuelled for over a decade by very strong national societal concerns. Prior to this single event the adverse effects of space weather had been registered on telegraph lines as well as interference on early WWII radar systems, while for countless eons the beauty of space weather as mid-latitude auroral displays were much appreciated. These prior space weather impacts were in themselves only a low-level science puzzle pursued by a few dedicated researchers. The technology boost and innovation that the post Sputnik era generated has almost single handedly defined our present day societal technology infrastructure. During the decade following Neil's walk on the moon on July 21, 1969 an international thrust to understand the science of space, and its weather, was in progress. However, the search for scientific understand was parsed into independent "stove pipe" categories: The ionosphere-aeronomy, the magnetosphere, the heliosphere-sun. The present day scientific infrastructure of funding agencies, learned societies, and international organizations are still hampered by these 1960's logical divisions which today are outdated in the pursuit of understanding space weather. As this era of intensive and well funded scientific research progressed so did societies innovative uses for space technologies and space "spin-offs". Well over a decade ago leaders in technology, science, and the military realized that there was indeed an adverse side to space weather that with each passing year became more severe. In 1994 several U.S. agencies established the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) to focus scientific attention on the system wide issue of the adverse effects of space weather on society and its technologies. Indeed for the past two decades a significant fraction of the scientific community has actively engaged in understanding space weather and hence crossing the "stove

Space Weathering on Airless Bodies.

PubMed

Pieters, Carle M; Noble, Sarah K

2016-10-01

Space weathering refers to alteration that occurs in the space environment with time. Lunar samples, and to some extent meteorites, have provided a benchmark for understanding the processes and products of space weathering. Lunar soils are derived principally from local materials but have accumulated a range of optically active opaque particles (OAOpq) that include nanophase metallic iron on/in rims formed on individual grains (imparting a red slope to visible and near-infrared reflectance) and larger iron particles (which darken across all wavelengths) such as are often found within the interior of recycled grains. Space weathering of other anhydrous silicate bodies, such as Mercury and some asteroids, produce different forms and relative abundance of OAOpq particles depending on the particular environment. If the development of OAOpq particles is minimized (such as at Vesta), contamination by exogenic material and regolith mixing become the dominant space weathering processes. Volatile-rich bodies and those composed of abundant hydrous minerals (dwarf planet Ceres, many dark asteroids, outer solar system satellites) are affected by space weathering processes differently than the silicate bodies of the inner solar system. However, the space weathering products of these bodies are currently poorly understood and the physics and chemistry of space weathering processes in different environments are areas of active research.

Space Weathering on Airless Bodies

PubMed Central

Pieters, Carle M.; Noble, Sarah K.

2018-01-01

Space weathering refers to alteration that occurs in the space environment with time. Lunar samples, and to some extent meteorites, have provided a benchmark for understanding the processes and products of space weathering. Lunar soils are derived principally from local materials but have accumulated a range of optically active opaque particles (OAOpq) that include nanophase metallic iron on/in rims formed on individual grains (imparting a red slope to visible and near-infrared reflectance) and larger iron particles (which darken across all wavelengths) such as are often found within the interior of recycled grains. Space weathering of other anhydrous silicate bodies, such as Mercury and some asteroids, produce different forms and relative abundance of OAOpq particles depending on the particular environment. If the development of OAOpq particles is minimized (such as at Vesta), contamination by exogenic material and regolith mixing become the dominant space weathering processes. Volatile-rich bodies and those composed of abundant hydrous minerals (dwarf planet Ceres, many dark asteroids, outer solar system satellites) are affected by space weathering processes differently than the silicate bodies of the inner solar system. However, the space weathering products of these bodies are currently poorly understood and the physics and chemistry of space weathering processes in different environments are areas of active research. PMID:29862145

The science of space weather.

PubMed

Eastwood, Jonathan P

2008-12-13

The basic physics underpinning space weather is reviewed, beginning with a brief overview of the main causes of variability in the near-Earth space environment. Although many plasma phenomena contribute to space weather, one of the most important is magnetic reconnection, and recent cutting edge research in this field is reviewed. We then place this research in context by discussing a number of specific types of space weather in more detail. As society inexorably increases its dependence on space, the necessity of predicting and mitigating space weather will become ever more acute. This requires a deep understanding of the complexities inherent in the plasmas that fill space and has prompted the development of a new generation of scientific space missions at the international level.

Space Weathering of Lunar Rocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noble, S. K.; Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Rahman, Z.

2012-01-01

All materials exposed at the lunar surface undergo space weathering processes. On the Moon, boulders make up only a small percentage of the exposed surface, and areas where such rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions identified from remote sensing data. Yet space weathered surfaces (patina) are relatively common on returned rock samples, some of which directly sample the surface of larger boulders. Because, as witness plates to lunar space weathering, rocks and boulders experience longer exposure times compared to lunar soil grains, they allow us to develop a deeper perspective on the relative importance of various weathering processes as a function of time.

Space Weathering of Rocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noble, Sarah

2011-01-01

Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. On the Moon, rocks make up only a very small percentage of the exposed surface and areas where rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions we find in remote sensing data. However, our studies of weathered Ap 17 rocks 76015 and 76237 show that significant amounts of weathering products can build up on rock surfaces. Because rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain, and thus record a longer history of exposure, we can study these products to gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative impo!1ance of various weathering components on the Moon. In contrast to the lunar case, on small asteroids, like Itokowa, rocks make up a large fraction of the exposed surface. Results from the Hayabusa spacecraft at Itokowa suggest that while the low gravity does not allow for the development of a mature regolith, weathering patinas can and do develop on rock surfaces, in fact, the rocky surfaces were seen to be darker and appear spectrally more weathered than regions with finer materials. To explore how weathering of asteroidal rocks may differ from lunar, a set of ordinary chondrite meteorites (H, L, and LL) which have been subjected to artificial space weathering by nanopulse laser were examined by TEM. NpFe(sup 0) bearing glasses were ubiquitous in both the naturally-weathered lunar and the artificially-weathered meteorite samples.

Using Space Weather for Enhanced, Extreme Terrestrial Weather Predictions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, M. H.; Lee, T. A., III

2017-12-01

Considering the complexities of the Sun-Earth system, the impacts of space weather to weather here on Earth are not fully understood. This study attempts to analyze this interrelationship by providing a theoretical framework for studying the varied modalities of solar inclination and explores the extent to which they contribute, both in formation and intensity, to extreme terrestrial weather. Using basic topologic and ontology engineering concepts (TOEC), the transdisciplinary syntaxes of space physics, geophysics, and meteorology are analyzed as a seamless interrelated system. This paper reports this investigation's initial findings and examines the validity of the question "Does space weather contribute to extreme weather on Earth, and if so, to what degree?"

The Ensemble Space Weather Modeling System (eSWMS): Status, Capabilities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fry, C. D.; Eccles, J. V.; Reich, J. P.

2010-12-01

Marking a milestone in space weather forecasting, the Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS) successfully completed validation testing in advance of operational testing at Air Force Weather Agency’s primary space weather production center. This is the first coupling of stand-alone, physics-based space weather models that are currently in operations at AFWA supporting the warfighter. Significant development effort went into ensuring the component models were portable and scalable while maintaining consistent results across diverse high performance computing platforms. Coupling was accomplished under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The coupled space weather models are the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) solar wind model and GAIM1, the ionospheric forecast component of the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model. The SWMS was developed by team members from AFWA, Explorations Physics International, Inc. (EXPI) and Space Environment Corporation (SEC). The successful development of the SWMS provides new capabilities beyond enabling extended lead-time, data-driven ionospheric forecasts. These include ingesting diverse data sets at higher resolution, incorporating denser computational grids at finer time steps, and performing probability-based ensemble forecasts. Work of the SWMS development team now focuses on implementing the ensemble-based probability forecast capability by feeding multiple scenarios of 5 days of solar wind forecasts to the GAIM1 model based on the variation of the input fields to the HAFv2 model. The ensemble SWMS (eSWMS) will provide the most-likely space weather scenario with uncertainty estimates for important forecast fields. The eSWMS will allow DoD mission planners to consider the effects of space weather on their systems with more advance warning than is currently possible. The payoff is enhanced, tailored support to the warfighter with improved capabilities, such as point-to-point HF propagation forecasts

Weather impacts on space operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madura, J.; Boyd, B.; Bauman, W.; Wyse, N.; Adams, M.

The efforts of the 45th Weather Squadron of the USAF to provide weather support to Patrick Air Force Base, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Eastern Range, and the Kennedy Space Center are discussed. Its weather support to space vehicles, particularly the Space Shuttle, includes resource protection, ground processing, launch, and Ferry Flight, as well as consultations to the Spaceflight Meteorology Group for landing forecasts. Attention is given to prelaunch processing weather, launch support weather, Shuttle launch commit criteria, and range safety weather restrictions. Upper level wind requirements are examined. The frequency of hourly surface observations with thunderstorms at the Shuttle landing facility, and lightning downtime at the Titan launch complexes are illustrated.

The DSCOVR Solar Wind Mission and Future Space Weather Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, M. D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Reinard, A. A.

2012-12-01

The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) mission, scheduled for launch in mid-2014, will provide real-time solar wind thermal plasma and magnetic measurements to ensure continuous monitoring for space weather forecasting. DSCOVR will orbit L1 and will serve as a follow-on mission to NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), which was launched in 1997. DSCOVR will have a total of six instruments, two of which will provide real-time data necessary for space weather forecasting: a Faraday cup to measure the proton and alpha components of the solar wind, and a triaxial fluxgate magnetometer to measure the magnetic field in three dimensions. Real-time data provided by DSCOVR will include Vx, Vy, Vz, n, T, Bx, By, and Bz. Such real-time L1 data is used in generating space weather applications and products that have been demonstrated to be highly accurate and provide actionable information for customers. We evaluate current space weather products driven by ACE and discuss future products under development for DSCOVR. New space weather products under consideration include: automated shock detection, more accurate L1 to Earth delay time, and prediction of rotations in solar wind Bz within magnetic clouds. Suggestions from the community on product ideas are welcome.

Challenges for Transitioning Science Knowledge to an Operational Environment for Space Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, James

2012-01-01

Effectively transitioning science knowledge to an operational environment relevant to space weather is critical to meet the civilian and defense needs, especially considering how technologies are advancing and present evolving susceptibilities to space weather impacts. The effort to transition scientific knowledge to a useful application is not a research task nor is an operational activity, but an effort that bridges the two. Successful transitioning must be an intentional effort that has a clear goal for all parties and measureable outcome and deliverable. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective for terrestrial weather and disaster relief efforts, and how those methodologies can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Space Weather Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallagher, D. L.

2004-01-01

This workshop will focus on what space weather is about and its impact on society. An overall picture will be "painted" describing the Sun's influence through the solar wind on the near-Earth space environment, including the aurora, killer electrons at geosynchronous orbit, million ampere electric currents through the ionosphere and along magnetic field lines, and the generation of giga-Watts of natural radio waves. Reference material in the form of Internet sites will be provided so that teachers can discuss space weather in the classroom and enable students to learn more about this topic.

Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

2016-12-01

Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

Planetary Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grande, M.

2012-04-01

Invited Talk - Space weather at other planets While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been confined to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an exreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. Indeed, space weather may be a significant factor in the habitability of other solar system and extrasolar planets, and the ability of life to travel between them.

Space Weather - Current Capabilities, Future Requirements, and the Path to Improved Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Ian

2016-07-01

We present an overview of Space Weather activities and future opportunities including assessments of current status and capabilities, knowledge gaps, and future directions in relation to both observations and modeling. The review includes input from the scientific community including from SCOSTEP scientific discipline representatives (SDRs), COSPAR Main Scientific Organizers (MSOs), and SCOSTEP/VarSITI leaders. The presentation also draws on results from the recent activities related to the production of the COSPAR-ILWS Space Weather Roadmap "Understanding Space Weather to Shield Society" [Schrijver et al., Advances in Space Research 55, 2745 (2015) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023], from the activities related to the United Nations (UN) Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) actions in relation to the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space (LTS), and most recently from the newly formed and ongoing efforts of the UN COPUOS Expert Group on Space Weather.

Space-Data Routers: Advanced data routing protocols for enhancing data exploitation for space weather applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Balasis, George; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Tsaoussidis, Vassilios; Diamantopoulos, Sotirios

2014-05-01

Data sharing and access are major issues in space sciences, as they influence the degree of data exploitation. The availability of multi-spacecraft distributed observation methods and adaptive mission architectures require computationally intensive analysis methods. Moreover, accurate space weather forecasting and future space exploration far from Earth will be in need of real-time data distribution and assimilation technologies. The FP7-Space collaborative research project "Space-Data Routers" (SDR) relies on space internetworking and in particular on Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), which marks the new era in space communications. SDR unifies space and earth communication infrastructures and delivers a set of tools and protocols for space-data exploitation. The main goal is to allow space agencies, academic institutes and research centers to share space-data generated by single or multiple missions, in an efficient, secure and automated manner. Here we are presenting the architecture and basic functionality of a DTN-based application specifically designed in the framework of the SDR project, for data query, retrieval and administration that will enable addressing outstanding science questions related to space weather, through the provision of simultaneous real-time data sampling at multiple points in space. The work leading to this paper has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE-2010-1) under grant agreement no. 263330 for the SDR (Space-Data Routers for Exploiting Space Data) collaborative research project. This paper reflects only the authors' views and the Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Advanced Analysis and Visualization of Space Weather Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Joshua J.

As the world becomes more technologically reliant, the more susceptible society as a whole is to adverse interactions with the sun. This "space weather'' can produce significant effects on modern technology, from interrupting satellite service, to causing serious damage to Earth-side power grids. These concerns have, over the past several years, prompted an out-welling of research in an attempt to understand the processes governing, and to provide a means of forecasting, space weather events. The research presented in this thesis couples to current work aimed at understanding Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their influence on the evolution of Earth's magnetic field and associated Van Allen radiation belts. To aid in the analysis of how these solar wind transients affect Earth's magnetic field, a system named Geospace/Heliosphere Observation & Simulation Tool-kit (GHOSTkit), along with its python analysis tools, GHOSTpy, has been devised to calculate the adiabatic invariants of trapped particle motion within Earth's magnetic field. These invariants aid scientists in ordering observations of the radiation belts, providing a more natural presentation of data, but can be computationally expensive to calculate. The GHOSTpy system, in the phase presented here, is aimed at providing invariant calculations based on LFM magnetic field simulation data. This research first examines an ideal dipole application to gain understanding on system performance. Following this, the challenges of applying the algorithms to gridded LFM MHD data is examined. Performance profiles are then presented, followed by a real-world application of the system.

Comparative Science and Space Weather Around the Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas; COSPAR/ILWS Roadmap Team

2016-10-01

Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been concerned to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new `toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched

Comparative science and space weather around the heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grande, Manuel

2016-07-01

Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been confined to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched

International Polar Research and Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanzerotti, Louis J.

2009-02-01

The fiftieth anniversary of the International Geophysical Year (IGY), currently celebrated in the 2007-2009 International Polar Year (IPY), highlights space weather's heritage from polar research. The polar regions were still very much "terra incognito" 50 years ago. At the same time, communications technologies had significantly advanced since the time of the second IPY, in 1932-1933. Yet even before the second IPY, several directors of international meteorological services stated in a 1928 resolution that "increased knowledge [of the polar regions] will be of practical application to problems connected with terrestrial magnetism, marine and aerial navigation, wireless telegraphy and weather forecasting" (see http://scaa.usask.ca/gallery/northern/currie/en_polaryear.shtml).

Automated shock detection and analysis algorithm for space weather application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorotnikov, Vasiliy S.; Smith, Charles W.; Hu, Qiang; Szabo, Adam; Skoug, Ruth M.; Cohen, Christina M. S.

2008-03-01

Space weather applications have grown steadily as real-time data have become increasingly available. Numerous industrial applications have arisen with safeguarding of the power distribution grids being a particular interest. NASA uses short-term and long-term space weather predictions in its launch facilities. Researchers studying ionospheric, auroral, and magnetospheric disturbances use real-time space weather services to determine launch times. Commercial airlines, communication companies, and the military use space weather measurements to manage their resources and activities. As the effects of solar transients upon the Earth's environment and society grow with the increasing complexity of technology, better tools are needed to monitor and evaluate the characteristics of the incoming disturbances. A need is for automated shock detection and analysis methods that are applicable to in situ measurements upstream of the Earth. Such tools can provide advance warning of approaching disturbances that have significant space weather impacts. Knowledge of the shock strength and speed can also provide insight into the nature of the approaching solar transient prior to arrival at the magnetopause. We report on efforts to develop a tool that can find and analyze shocks in interplanetary plasma data without operator intervention. This method will run with sufficient speed to be a practical space weather tool providing useful shock information within 1 min of having the necessary data to ground. The ability to run without human intervention frees space weather operators to perform other vital services. We describe ways of handling upstream data that minimize the frequency of false positive alerts while providing the most complete description of approaching disturbances that is reasonably possible.

Overview of Goal 1 (Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events) of the National Space Weather Action Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonas, S.; Murtagh, W. J.; Clarke, S. W.

2017-12-01

The National Space Weather Action Plan identifies approximately 100 distinct activities across six strategic goals. Many of these activities depend on the identification of a series of benchmarks that describe the physical characteristics of space weather events on or near Earth. My talk will provide an overview of Goal 1 (Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events) of the National Space Weather Action Plan which will provide an introduction to the panel presentations and discussions.

Characterizing Space Weather Effects in the Post-DMSP Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, K. M.

2015-12-01

Space weather generally refers to heliophysical phenomena or events that produce a negative impact on manmade systems. While many space weather events originate with impulsive disturbances on the sun, others result from complex internal interactions in the ionosphere-thermosphere system. The reliance of mankind on satellite-based services continues to increase rapidly, yet the global capacity for sensing space weather in the ionosphere seems headed towards decline. A number of recent ionospheric-focused space-based missions are either presently, or soon-to-be, no longer available, and the end of the multi-decade Defense Meteorological Satellite Program is now in sight. The challenge facing the space weather community is how to maintain or increase sensing capabilities in an operational environment constrained by a decreasing numbers of sensors. The upcoming launch of COSMIC-2 in 2016/2018 represents the most significant new capability planned for the future. GNSS RO data has some benefit for background ionospheric models, particularly over regions where ground-based GNSS TEC measurements are unavailable, but the space weather community has a dire need to leverage such missions for far more knowledge of the ionosphere, and specifically for information related to space weather impacts. Meanwhile, the number of ground-based GNSS sensors worldwide has increased substantially, yet progress instrumenting some vastly undersampled regions, such as Africa, remains slow. In fact, the recent loss of support for many existing ground stations in such areas under the former Scintillation Network Decision Aid (SCINDA) program may actually result in a decrease in such sensing sites over the next 1-2 years, abruptly reversing a positive trend established over the last decade. Here we present potential solutions to the challenges these developments pose to the space weather enterprise. Specific topics include modeling advances required to detect and accurately characterize

Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pullkkinen, A.

2011-01-01

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.

Operational Space Weather Activities in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Thomas; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terrance; Viereck, Rodney; Murtagh, William; Rutledge, Robert

2016-07-01

We review the current activities in the civil operational space weather forecasting enterprise of the United States. The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, working with partners in the Air Force as well as international operational forecast services to provide predictions, data, and products on a large variety of space weather phenomena and impacts. In October 2015, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and associated Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) that define how the nation will better forecast, mitigate, and respond to an extreme space weather event. The SWAP defines actions involving multiple federal agencies and mandates coordination and collaboration with academia, the private sector, and international bodies to, among other things, develop and sustain an operational space weather observing system; develop and deploy new models of space weather impacts to critical infrastructure systems; define new mechanisms for the transition of research models to operations and to ensure that the research community is supported for, and has access to, operational model upgrade paths; and to enhance fundamental understanding of space weather through support of research models and observations. The SWAP will guide significant aspects of space weather operational and research activities for the next decade, with opportunities to revisit the strategy in the coming years through the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council.

The Research-to-Operations-to-Research Cycle at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, H. J.

2017-12-01

The provision of actionable space weather products and services by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center relies on observations, models and scientific understanding of our dynamic space environment. It also depends on a deep understanding of the systems and capabilities that are vulnerable to space weather, as well as national and international partnerships that bring together resources, skills and applications to support space weather forecasters and customers. While these activities have been evolving over many years, in October 2015, with the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and National Space Weather Action Plan (NSWAP) by National Science and Technology Council in the Executive Office of the President, there is a new coordinated focus on ensuring the Nation is prepared to respond to and recover from severe space weather storms. One activity highlighted in the NSWAP is the Operations to Research (O2R) and Research to Operations (R2O) process. In this presentation we will focus on current R2O and O2R activities that advance our ability to serve those affected by space weather and give a vision for future programs. We will also provide examples of recent research results that lead to improved operational capabilities, lessons learned in the transition of research to operations, and challenges for both the science and operations communities.

Global Navigation Satellite Systems and Space Weather: Building upon the International Space Weather Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadimova, S. H.; Haubold, H. J.

2014-01-01

Globally there is growing interest in better unders tanding solar-terrestrial interactions, particularly patterns and trends in space weather. This is not only for scientific reasons, but also because the reliable operation of ground-based and space-based assets and infrastructures is increasingly dependent on their robustness against the detrimental effects of space weather. Consequently, in 2009, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) proposed the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI), as a follow-up activity to the International Heliophysical Year 2007 (IHY2007), to be implemented under a three-year workplan from 2010 to 2012 (UNGA Document, A/64/20). All achievements of international cooperation and coordination for ISWI, including instrumentation, data analysis, modelling, education, training and public outreach, are made a vailable through the ISWI Newsletter and the ISWI Website (http://www.iswi-secretariat.org/). Since the last solar maximum in 2000, societal dependence on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) has increased substantially. This situation has brought increasing attention to the subject of space weather and its effects on GNSS systems and users. Results concerning the impact of space weather on GNSS are made available at the Information Portal (www.unoosa.org) of the International Committee on Global Navigati on Satellite Systems (ICG). This paper briefly reviews the curre nt status of ISWI with regard to GNSS.

Activities of NICT space weather project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothmer, Volker

2013-04-01

Through the AFFECTS project funded by the European Union's 7th Framework Programme, European and US scientists develop an advanced proto-type space weather warning system to safeguard the operation of telecommunication and navigation systems on Earth to the threat of solar storms. The project is led by the University of Göttingen's Institute for Astrophysics and comprises worldwide leading research and academic institutions and industrial enterprises from Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway and the United States. The key objectives of the AFFECTS project are: State-of-the-art analysis and modelling of the Sun-Earth chain of effects on the Earth's ionosphere and their subsequent impacts on communication systems based on multipoint space observations and complementary ground-based data. Development of a prototype space weather early warning system and reliable space weather forecasts, with specific emphasis on ionospheric applications. Dissemination of new space weather products and services to end users, the scientific community and general public. The presentation summarizes the project highlights, with special emphasis on the developed space weather forecast tools.

Mexican Space Weather Service (SCIESMEX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; De la Luz, V.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Corona-Romero, P.; Gonzalez, L. X.

2015-12-01

Recent modifications of the Civil Protection Law in Mexico include now specific mentions to space hazards and space weather phenomena. During the last few years, the UN has promoted international cooperation on Space Weather awareness, studies and monitoring. Internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a Space Weather Service in Mexico (SCIESMEX). The SCIESMEX (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) is operated by the Geophysics Institute at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The UNAM has the experience of operating several critical national services, including the National Seismological Service (SSN); besides that has a well established scientific group with expertise in space physics and solar- terrestrial phenomena. The SCIESMEX is also related with the recent creation of the Mexican Space Agency (AEM). The project combines a network of different ground instruments covering solar, interplanetary, geomagnetic, and ionospheric observations. The SCIESMEX has already in operation computing infrastructure running the web application, a virtual observatory and a high performance computing server to run numerical models. SCIESMEX participates in the International Space Environment Services (ISES) and in the Inter-progamme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) of the Word Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Space Weather Research Presented at the 2007 AGU Fall Meeting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Mohi

2007-12-01

AGU's 47th annual Fall Meeting, held 10-14 December 2007 in San Francisco, Calif., was the largest gathering of geoscientists in the Union's history. More than 14,600 people attended. The Space Physics and Aeronomy (SPA) sections sported excellent turnout, with more than 1300 abstracts submitted over 114 poster and oral sessions. Topics discussed that related to space weather were manifold: the nature of the Sun-Earth system revealed through newly launched satellites, observations and models of ionospheric convection, advances in the understanding of radiation belt physics, Sun-Earth coupling via energetic coupling, data management and archiving into virtual observatories, and the applications of all this research to space weather forecasting and prediction.

Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Esparza, J. A.; De la Luz, V.; Corona-Romero, P.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Gonzalez, L. X.; Sergeeva, M. A.; Romero-Hernandez, E.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.

2017-01-01

Legislative modifications of the General Civil Protection Law in Mexico in 2014 included specific references to space hazards and space weather phenomena. The legislation is consistent with United Nations promotion of international engagement and cooperation on space weather awareness, studies, and monitoring. These internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a space weather service in Mexico. The Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX in Spanish) (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) was initiated in October 2014 and is operated by the Institute of Geophysics at the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). SCiESMEX became a Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Services (ISES) in June 2015. We present the characteristics of the service, some products, and the initial actions for developing a space weather strategy in Mexico. The service operates a computing infrastructure including a web application, data repository, and a high-performance computing server to run numerical models. SCiESMEX uses data of the ground-based instrumental network of the National Space Weather Laboratory (LANCE), covering solar radio burst emissions, solar wind and interplanetary disturbances (by interplanetary scintillation observations), geomagnetic measurements, and analysis of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere (by employing data from local networks of GPS receiver stations).

A survey of customers of space weather information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, C. J.; Rabanal, J. P.

2013-09-01

We present an analysis of the users of space weather information based on 2783 responses to an online survey among subscribers of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center e-mail services. The survey requested information focused on the three NOAA space weather scales: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. Space weather information is most commonly obtained for reasons of human safety and continuity or reliability of operations. The information is primarily used for situational awareness, as aid to understand anomalies, to avoid impacts on current and near-future operations by implementing mitigating strategies, and to prepare for potential near-future impacts that might occur in conjunction with contingencies that include electric power outages or GPS perturbations. Interest in, anticipated impacts from, and responses to the three main categories of space weather are quite uniform across societal sectors. Approximately 40% of the respondents expect serious to very serious impacts from space weather events if no action were taken to mitigate or in the absence of adequate space weather information. The impacts of space weather are deemed to be substantially reduced because of the availability of, and their response to, space weather forecasts and alerts. Current and near-future space weather conditions are generally highly valued, considered useful, and generally, though not fully, adequate to avoid or mitigate societal impacts. We conclude that even among those receiving space weather information, there is considerable uncertainty about the possible impacts of space weather and thus about how to act on the space weather information that is provided.

Space weather in the EU's FP7 Space Theme. Preface to the special issue on "EU-FP7 funded space weather projects"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiarini, Paola

2013-11-01

Technological infrastructures in space and on ground provide services on which modern society and economies rely. Space weather related research is funded under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP7) of the European Union in response to the need of protecting such critical infrastructures from the damage which could be caused by extreme space weather events. The calls for proposals published under the topic "Security of space assets from space weather events" of the FP7 Space Theme aimed to improve forecasts and predictions of disruptive space weather events as well as identify best practices to limit the impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructures and their data provision. Space weather related work was also funded under the topic "Exploitation of space science and exploration data", which aims to add value to space missions and Earth-based observations by contributing to the effective scientific exploitation of collected data. Since 2007 a total of 20 collaborative projects have been funded, covering a variety of physical phenomena associated with space weather, from ionospheric disturbances and scintillation, to geomagnetically induced currents at Earth's surface, to coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles. This article provides an overview of the funded projects, touching upon some results and referring to specific websites for a more exhaustive description of the projects' outcomes.

The Future of Operational Space Weather Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, T. E.

2015-12-01

We review the current state of operational space weather observations, the requirements for new or evolved space weather forecasting capablities, and the relevant sections of the new National strategy for space weather developed by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force chartered by the Office of Science and Technology Policy of the White House. Based on this foundation, we discuss future space missions such as the NOAA space weather mission to the L1 Lagrangian point planned for the 2021 time frame and its synergy with an L5 mission planned for the same period; the space weather capabilities of the upcoming GOES-R mission, as well as GOES-Next possiblities; and the upcoming COSMIC-2 mission for ionospheric observations. We also discuss the needs for ground-based operational networks to supply mission critical and/or backup space weather observations including the NSF GONG solar optical observing network, the USAF SEON solar radio observing network, the USGS real-time magnetometer network, the USCG CORS network of GPS receivers, and the possibility of operationalizing the world-wide network of neutron monitors for real-time alerts of ground-level radiation events.

Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Geomagnetic Storm Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Parker, Neergaard

2013-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) space environments community utilizes near real time space weather data to support a variety of ISS engineering and science activities. The team has operated the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) suite of plasma instruments (two Langmuir probes, a floating potential probe, and a plasma impedance probe) on ISS since 2006 to obtain in-situ measurements of plasma density and temperature along the ISS orbit and variations in ISS frame potential due to electrostatic current collection from the plasma environment (spacecraft charging) and inductive (vxB) effects from the vehicle motion across the Earth s magnetic field. An ongoing effort is to use FPMU for measuring the ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms at ISS altitudes and investigate auroral charging of the vehicle as it passes through regions of precipitating auroral electrons. This work is challenged by restrictions on FPMU operations that limit observation time to less than about a third of a year. As a result, FPMU campaigns ranging in length from a few days to a few weeks are typically scheduled weeks in advance for ISS engineering and payload science activities. In order to capture geomagnetic storm data under these terms, we monitor near real time space weather data from NASA, NOAA, and ESA sources to determine solar wind disturbance arrival times at Earth likely to be geoeffective (including coronal mass ejections and high speed streams associated with coronal holes) and activate the FPMU ahead of the storm onset. Using this technique we have successfully captured FPMU data during a number of geomagnetic storm periods including periods with ISS auroral charging. This presentation will describe the strategies and challenges in capturing FPMU data during geomagnetic storms, the near real time space weather resources utilized for monitoring the space weather environment, and provide examples of auroral charging data obtained during storm operations.

Space weather activities in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.

The Sun has long been understood as a source of energy for mankind. Only in the more modern times has it also been seen as a source of disturbances in the space environment of the Earth, but also of the other planets and the heliosphere. Space weather research had an early start in Europe with investigations of Birkeland, Fitzgerald and Lodge, ultimately leading to an understanding of geomagnetic storms and their relation to the Sun. Today, European space weather activities range from the study of the Sun, through the inner heliosphere, to the magnetosphere, ionosphere, atmosphere, down to ground level effects. We will give an overview of European space weather activities and focus on the chain of events from Sun to Earth.

Operational Space Weather in USAF Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smithtro, C.; Quigley, S.

2006-12-01

Most education programs offering space weather courses are understandably and traditionally heavily weighted with theoretical space physics that is the basis for most of what is researched and modeled. While understanding the theory is a good and necessary grounding for anyone working the field of space weather, few military or commercial jobs employ such theory in real-time operations. The operations sites/centers are much more geared toward use of applied theory-resultant models, tools and products. To ensure its operations centers personnel, commanders, real-time system operators and other customers affected by the space environment are educated on available and soon-to-be operational space weather models and products, the USAF has developed applicable course/lecture material taught at various institutions to include the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) and the Joint Weather Training Complex (335th/TRS/OUA). Less frequent training of operational space weather is available via other venues that will be discussed, and associated course material is also being developed for potential use at the National Security Space Institute (NSSI). This presentation provides an overview of the programs, locations, courses and material developed and/or taught by or for USAF personnel dealing with operational space weather. It also provides general information on student research project results that may be used in operational support, along with observations regarding logistical and professional benefits of teaching such non-theoretical/non-traditional material.

Four top tier challenges for Space Weather Research for the next decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spann, James

2017-04-01

The science of space weather is that which (1) develops the knowledge and understanding to predict conditions in space that impact life and society, and (2) leads to operational solutions that protect assets and systems to the benefit of society. Advances over the past decades in this area of research have yielded amazing discoveries and significant strides toward fulfilling the promise of an operational solution to space weather, and have facilitated the enterprise to make its way into the realm of national and international policy. Even if the resources, technologies, and political will were available to take advantage of this progress, our current lack of understanding of space weather would prevent the implementation of a fully operational system. This talk will highlight four distinct areas of research that, if fully understood, could enable operational solutions to space weather impacts, given sufficient resources and political will. These areas are (a) trigger of solar variability, (b) acceleration of mass and energy in interplanetary space, (c) geoeffectiveness of solar wind, and (d) ionospheric variability. A brief description, technical challenges, and possible pathways to resolution will be offered for each of these areas.

Modeling extreme (Carrington-type) space weather events using three-dimensional MHD code simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Glocer, A.

2013-12-01

There is growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure and systems. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made towards the modeling of space weather events. Three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, and have played a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for existing global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events that have a ground footprint comparable (or larger) to the Carrington superstorm. Results are presented for an initial simulation run with ``very extreme'' constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated ground induced geoelectric field to such extreme driving conditions. We also discuss the results and what they might mean for the accuracy of the simulations. The model is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in earth conductors such as power transmission grids.

The Origin of the "Seasons" in Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dikpati, Mausumi; Cally, Paul S.; McIntosh, Scott W.; Heifetz, Eyal

2017-11-01

Powerful `space weather' events caused by solar activity pose serious risks to human health, safety, economic activity and national security. Spikes in deaths due to heart attacks, strokes and other diseases occurred during prolonged power outages. Currently it is hard to prepare for and mitigate the impact of space weather because it is impossible to forecast the solar eruptions that can cause these terrestrial events until they are seen on the Sun. However, as recently reported in Nature, eruptive events like coronal mass ejections and solar flares, are organized into quasi-periodic "seasons", which include enhanced bursts of eruptions for several months, followed by quiet periods. We explored the dynamics of sunspot-producing magnetic fields and discovered for the first time that bursty and quiet seasons, manifested in surface magnetic structures, can be caused by quasi-periodic energy-exchange among magnetic fields, Rossby waves and differential rotation of the solar interior shear-layer (called tachocline). Our results for the first time provide a quantitative physical mechanism for forecasting the strength and duration of bursty seasons several months in advance, which can greatly enhance our ability to warn humans about dangerous solar bursts and prevent damage to satellites and power stations from space weather events.

The Origin of the "Seasons" in Space Weather.

PubMed

Dikpati, Mausumi; Cally, Paul S; McIntosh, Scott W; Heifetz, Eyal

2017-11-07

Powerful 'space weather' events caused by solar activity pose serious risks to human health, safety, economic activity and national security. Spikes in deaths due to heart attacks, strokes and other diseases occurred during prolonged power outages. Currently it is hard to prepare for and mitigate the impact of space weather because it is impossible to forecast the solar eruptions that can cause these terrestrial events until they are seen on the Sun. However, as recently reported in Nature, eruptive events like coronal mass ejections and solar flares, are organized into quasi-periodic "seasons", which include enhanced bursts of eruptions for several months, followed by quiet periods. We explored the dynamics of sunspot-producing magnetic fields and discovered for the first time that bursty and quiet seasons, manifested in surface magnetic structures, can be caused by quasi-periodic energy-exchange among magnetic fields, Rossby waves and differential rotation of the solar interior shear-layer (called tachocline). Our results for the first time provide a quantitative physical mechanism for forecasting the strength and duration of bursty seasons several months in advance, which can greatly enhance our ability to warn humans about dangerous solar bursts and prevent damage to satellites and power stations from space weather events.

Space Weather Forecasting at the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nava, O.

2012-12-01

The Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) at Vandenberg Air Force Base is the command and control focal point for the operational employment of worldwide joint space forces. The JSpOC focuses on planning and executing US Strategic Command's Joint Functional Component Command for Space (JFCC SPACE) mission. Through the JSpOC, the Weather Specialty Team (WST) monitors space and terrestrial weather effects, plans and assesses weather impacts on military operations, and provides reach-back support for deployed theater solar and terrestrial needs. This presentation will detail how space weather affects the JSpOC mission set and how the scientific community can enhance the WST's capabilities and effectiveness.

The National Space Weather Program: Two decades of interagency partnership and accomplishments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonadonna, Michael; Lanzerotti, Louis; Stailey, Judson

2017-01-01

This paper describes the development of the United States National Space Weather Program (NSWP) from early interests in space environmental phenomena and their impact through the culmination of the program in 2015. Over its 21 year run, the NSWP facilitated substantial improvements in the capabilities of Federal Space Weather services and fostered broad and enduring partnerships with industry and the academic community within the U.S. and internationally. Under the management of the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research a coalition of 10 federal agencies worked together from 1994 to 2015 to advance the national space weather enterprise. The paper describes key events and accomplishments of the NSWP interagency partnership while recognizing the great achievements made by the individual agencies. In order to provide context, the paper also discusses several important events outside the NSWP purview. Some of these external events influenced the course of the NSWP, while others were encouraged by the NSWP partnership. Following the establishment of the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Task Force of the National Science and Technology Council in the White House and the deactivation of the NSWP Council, the agencies now play a supporting role in the national effort as the federal engagement in the National Space Weather Partnership graduates to a higher level.

Advanced Architectures for Modern Weather/Multifunction Radars

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

Advanced Architectures for Modern Weather /Multifunction Radars Caleb Fulton The University of Oklahoma Advanced Radar Research Center Norman...and all of them are addressing the need to lower cost while improving beamforming flexibility in future weather radar systems that will be tasked...with multiple non- weather functions. Keywords: Phased arrays, digital beamforming, multifunction radar. Introduction and Overview As the performance

The Perils of Space Weather

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reeves, Geoff

The Sun’s continuous bombardment of the Earth with high-energy electrons, protons, and other nuclei results in space weather that can wreak havoc on the nation’s satellites, aircraft, communications networks, navigation systems, and the electric power grid. Because of the potential for space weather to so critically impact national security, Los Alamos National Laboratory has been studying it for decades, designing and building space-based sensors to detect emissions from potential nuclear events here on Earth and to study natural and man-made radiation in space.

SPace weather applications in a technology-dependent society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngwira, C. M.

2017-12-01

Space weather can adversely key technology assets, such as, high-voltage electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and communications systems that are critical to national security and economy. However, the term of "space weather" is not well known in our society. This presentation will introduce key concepts related to the space weather problem and show how space weather impacts our everyday life. The goal is to promote awareness among the general public. Also, this presentation will highlight how space weather is being used to promote STEM education for community college students through the NASA internship program.

Locations Where Space Weather Energy Impacts the Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sojka, Jan J.

2017-11-01

In this review we consider aspects of space weather that can have a severe impact on the terrestrial atmosphere. We begin by identifying the pre-conditioning role of the Sun on the temperature and density of the upper atmosphere. This effect we define as "space climatology". Space weather effects are then defined as severe departures from this state of the atmospheric energy and density. Three specific forms of space weather are reviewed and we show that each generates severe space weather impacts. The three forms of space weather being considered are the solar photon flux (flares), particle precipitation (aurora), and electromagnetic Joule heating (magnetosphere-ionospheric (M-I) coupling). We provide an overview of the physical processes associated with each of these space weather forms. In each case a very specific altitude range exists over which the processes can most effectively impact the atmosphere. Our argument is that a severe change in the local atmosphere's state leads to atmospheric heating and other dynamic changes at locations beyond the input heat source region. All three space weather forms have their greatest atmospheric impact between 100 and 130 km. This altitude region comprises the transition between the atmosphere's mesosphere and thermosphere and is the ionosphere's E-region. This region is commonly referred to as the Space Atmosphere Interaction Region (SAIR). The SAIR also acts to insulate the lower atmosphere from the space weather impact of energy deposition. A similar space weather zone would be present in atmospheres of other planets and exoplanets.

Bringing Space Weather Down to Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiff, P. H.; Sumners, C.

2005-05-01

Most of the public has no idea what Space Weather is, but a number of innovative programs, web sites, magazine articles, TV shows and planetarium shows have taken space weather from an unknown quantity to a much more visible field. This paper reviews new developments, including the new Space Weather journal, the very popular spaceweather.com website, new immersive planetarium shows that can go "on the road", and well-publicized Sun-Earth Day activities. Real-time data and reasonably accurate spaceweather forecasts are available from several websites, with many subscribers. Even the renaissance of amateur radio because of Homeland Security brings a new generation of learners to wonder what is going on in the Sun today. The NSF Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling has a dedicated team to reach both the public and a greater diversity of new scientists.

Space weather activities in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, D.

Space Weather Plan Australia has a draft space weather plan to drive and focus appropriate research into services that meet future industry and social needs. The Plan has three main platforms, space weather monitoring and service delivery, support for priority research, and outreach to the community. The details of monitoring, service, research and outreach activities are summarised. A ground-based network of 14 monitoring stations from Antarctica to Papua New Guinea is operated by IPS, a government agency. These sites monitor ionospheric and geomagnetic characteristics, while two of them also monitor the sun at radio and optical wavelengths. Services provided through the Australian Space Forecast Centre (ASFC) include real-time information on the solar, space, ionospheric and geomagnetic environments. Data are gathered automatically from monitoring sites and integrated with data exchanged internationally to create snapshots of current space weather conditions and forecasts of conditions up to several days ahead. IPS also hosts the WDC for Solar-Terrestrial Science and specialises in ground-based solar, ionospheric, and geomagnetic data sets, although recent in-situ magnetospheric measurements are also included. Space weather activities A research consortium operates the Tasman International Geospace Environment Radar (TIGER), an HF southward pointing auroral radar operating from Hobart (Tasmania). A second cooperative radar (Unwin radar) is being constructed in the South Island of New Zealand. This will intersect with TIGER over the auroral zone and enhance the ability of the radar to image the surge of currents that herald space environment changes entering the Polar Regions. Launched in November 2002, the micro satellite FEDSAT, operated by the Cooperative Research Centre for Satellite Systems, has led to successful space science programs and data streams. FEDSAT is making measurements of the magnetic field over Australia and higher latitudes. It also carries a

The utility of polarized heliospheric imaging for space weather monitoring.

PubMed

DeForest, C E; Howard, T A; Webb, D F; Davies, J A

2016-01-01

A polarizing heliospheric imager is a critical next generation tool for space weather monitoring and prediction. Heliospheric imagers can track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they cross the solar system, using sunlight scattered by electrons in the CME. This tracking has been demonstrated to improve the forecasting of impact probability and arrival time for Earth-directed CMEs. Polarized imaging allows locating CMEs in three dimensions from a single vantage point. Recent advances in heliospheric imaging have demonstrated that a polarized imager is feasible with current component technology.Developing this technology to a high technology readiness level is critical for space weather relevant imaging from either a near-Earth or deep-space mission. In this primarily technical review, we developpreliminary hardware requirements for a space weather polarizing heliospheric imager system and outline possible ways to flight qualify and ultimately deploy the technology operationally on upcoming specific missions. We consider deployment as an instrument on NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory follow-on near the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, as a stand-alone constellation of smallsats in low Earth orbit, or as an instrument located at the Sun-Earth L5 Lagrange point. The critical first step is the demonstration of the technology, in either a science or prototype operational mission context.

Fifty Years of Space Weather Forecasting from Boulder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, T. E.

2015-12-01

The first official space weather forecast was issued by the Space Disturbances Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, in 1965, ushering in an era of operational prediction that continues to this day. Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) charters the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) as one of the nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to provide the nation's official watches, warnings, and alerts of space weather phenomena. SWPC is now integral to national and international efforts to predict space weather events, from the common and mild, to the rare and extreme, that can impact critical technological infrastructure. In 2012, the Strategic National Risk Assessment included extreme space weather events as low-to-medium probability phenomena that could, unlike any other meteorogical phenomena, have an impact on the government's ability to function. Recognizing this, the White House chartered the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to produce the first comprehensive national strategy for the prediction, mitigation, and response to an extreme space weather event. The implementation of the National Strategy is ongoing with NOAA, its partners, and stakeholders concentrating on the goal of improving our ability to observe, model, and predict the onset and severity of space weather events. In addition, work continues with the research community to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms - on the Sun, in the heliosphere, and in the Earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere - of space weather as well as the effects on critical infrastructure such as electrical power transmission systems. In fifty years, people will hopefully look back at the history of operational space weather prediction and credit our efforts today with solidifying the necessary developments in observational systems, full-physics models of the entire Sun-Earth system, and tools for predicting the impacts to infrastructure to protect

Recent Applications of Space Weather Research to NASA Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willis, Emily M.; Howard, James W., Jr.; Miller, J. Scott; Minow, Joseph I.; NeergardParker, L.; Suggs, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Marshall Space Flight Center s Space Environments Team is committed to applying the latest research in space weather to NASA programs. We analyze data from an extensive set of space weather satellites in order to define the space environments for some of NASA s highest profile programs. Our goal is to ensure that spacecraft are designed to be successful in all environments encountered during their missions. We also collaborate with universities, industry, and other federal agencies to provide analysis of anomalies and operational impacts to current missions. This presentation is a summary of some of our most recent applications of space weather data, including the definition of the space environments for the initial phases of the Space Launch System (SLS), acquisition of International Space Station (ISS) frame potential variations during geomagnetic storms, and Nascap-2K charging analyses.

Radiation Effects on Emerging Technologies: Implications of Space Weather Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LaBel, Kenneth A.; Barth, Janet L.

2000-01-01

As NASA and its space partners endeavor to develop a network of satellites capable of supporting humankind's needs for advanced space weather prediction and understanding, one of the key challenges is to design a space system to operate in the natural space radiation environment In this paper, we present a description of the natural space radiation environment, the effects of interest to electronic or photonic systems, and a sample of emerging technologies and their specific issues. We conclude with a discussion of operations in the space radiation hazard and considerations for risk management.

Space Weather affects on Air Transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J. B. L.; Bentley, R. D.; Dyer, C.; Shaw, A.

In Europe, legislation requires the airline industry to monitor the occupational exposure of aircrew to cosmic radiation. However, there are other significant impacts of space weather phenomena on the technological systems used for day-to-day operations which need to be considered by the airlines. These were highlighted by the disruption caused to the industry by the period of significant solar activity in late October and early November 2003. Next generation aircraft will utilize increasingly complex avionics as well as expanding the performance envelopes. These and future generation platforms will require the development of a new air-space management infrastructure with improved position accuracy (for route navigation and landing in bad weather) and reduced separation minima in order to cope with the expected growth in air travel. Similarly, greater reliance will be placed upon satellites for command, control, communication and information (C3I) of the operation. However, to maximize effectiveness of this globally interoperable C3I and ensure seamless fusion of all components for a safe operation will require a greater understanding of the space weather affects, their risks with increasing technology, and the inclusion of space weather information into the operation. This paper will review space weather effects on air transport and the increasing risks for future operations cause by them. We will examine how well the effects can be predicted, some of the tools that can be used and the practicalities of using such predictions in an operational scenario. Initial results from the SOARS ESA Space Weather Pilot Project will also be discussed,

Models Required to Mitigate Impacts of Space Weather on Space Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Janet L.

2003-01-01

This viewgraph presentation attempts to develop a model of factors which need to be considered in the design and construction of spacecraft to lessen the effects of space weather on these vehicles. Topics considered include: space environments and effects, radiation environments and effects, space weather drivers, space weather models, climate models, solar proton activity and mission design for the GOES mission. The authors conclude that space environment models need to address issues from mission planning through operations and a program to develop and validate authoritative space environment models for application to spacecraft design does not exist at this time.

Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Space Environments Engineering and Crew Auroral Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Pettit, Donald R.; Hartman, William A.

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

2011 Space Weather Workshop to Be Held in April

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltzer, Thomas

2011-04-01

The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 26-29 April 2011. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda will include presentations on space weather impacts on the Global Positioning System (GPS), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory's (STEREO) mission milestone of a 360° view of the Sun, the latest from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and space weather impacts on emergency response by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Additionally, the vulnerabilities of satellites and the power grid to space weather will be addressed. Additional highlights will include the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group's (CSWIG) roundtable session and a presentation from the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM). The CSWIG roundtable session on the growth of the space weather enterprise will feature distinguished panelists. As always, lively interaction between the audience and the panel is anticipated. The OFCM will present the National Space Weather Program's new strategic plan.

The National Space Weather Strategy: Policy on Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murtagh, W. J.

2016-12-01

Ensuring that the United States is prepared to respond to and recover from severe space weather storms is a priority to the President and to this Administration. We cannot ignore the potential impact space weather may have on key infrastructures and technologies including aviation and satellite operations, the electric power grid, and GPS applications. These technologies form the very backbone of the critical technology infrastructure we rely on for so much of what we do today. In October 2015, OSTP Director John Holdren announced the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and the National Space Weather Action Plan. The Strategy identifies goals and establishes the principles that will guide efforts to develop national space-weather preparedness in both the near and long term, while the Action Plan identifies specific activities, outcomes, and timelines that the Federal government must pursue to be prepared for and resilient to future space-weather events. The Strategy recognizes that observations are the backbone of forecast and warning capabilities. The Strategy also recognized that to achieve a robust operational program for space-weather observations, the United States must: (1) establish and sustain a foundational set of observations; (2) when feasible and cost effective, use data from multiple sources, including international, Federal, State, and local governments, as well as from the academic and industry sectors; (3) ensure the continuity of critical data sources; (4) continue to support sensors for solar and space physics research; (5) ensure data-assimilation techniques are in place; and (6) maintain archives for ground- and space-based data, which are essential for model development and benchmarking. In this talk we explore elements in the Space Weather Action Plan that will ensure our Nation has the information we need to enhance resilience to the risk of space weather.

Space Weather Studies at Istanbul Technical University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaymaz, Zerefsan

2016-07-01

This presentation will introduce the Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory of Istanbul Technical University (ITU). It has been established to support the educational needs of the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011 to conduct scientific research in Space Weather, Space Environment, Space Environment-Spacecraft Interactions, Space instrumentation and Upper Atmospheric studies. Currently the laboratory has some essential infrastructure and the most instrumentation for ionospheric observations and ground induced currents from the magnetosphere. The laboratory has two subunits: SWIFT dealing with Space Weather Instrumentation and Forecasting unit and SWDPA dealing with Space Weather Data Processing and Analysis. The research area covers wide range of upper atmospheric and space science studies from ionosphere, ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, distant magnetotail, magnetopause and bow shock studies, as well as solar and solar wind disturbances and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. We also study the spacecraft environment interaction and novel plasma instrument design. Several scientific projects have been carried out in the laboratory. Operational objectives of our laboratory will be carried out with the collaboration of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory and the facilities are in the process of integration to their prediction services. Educational and research objectives, as well as the examples from the research carried out in our laboratory will be demonstrated in this presentation.

Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Space Environments Engineering and Crew Auroral Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph; Pettit, Donald R.; Hartman, William A.

2012-01-01

Today s presentation describes how real time space weather data is used by the International Space Station (ISS) space environments team to obtain data on auroral charging of the ISS vehicle and support ISS crew efforts to obtain auroral images from orbit. Topics covered include: Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU), . Auroral charging of ISS, . Real ]time space weather monitoring resources, . Examples of ISS auroral charging captured from space weather events, . ISS crew observations of aurora.

Successfully Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, James

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Strategy for future space weather observational assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Jackie; Bogdanova, Yulia; Harrison, Richard; Bisi, Mario; Hapgood, Mike

2017-04-01

Observations from an ad-hoc suite of mainly aging, scientific, space-borne assets currently underpin space weather forecasting capabilities world-wide. While efforts have begun to replace / supplement these assets - in particular with the recent launch of the DSCOVR spacecraft - it is widely accepted that there is an urgent need to accelerate these endeavours in order to mitigate the risk of losing these critical observations. It is hence opportune to critically review the possible options for the provision of space weather observations, particularly in terms of identifying the optimum vantage point(s) and the instrumentation that will provide the most beneficial measurements to support space weather prediction. Here we present the results of several recent European studies that aim to identify the best solution for space-based space weather monitoring - obviously within realistic financial constraints and bearing in mind the immediacy with which such a mission needs to be realised.

Global Cooperation in the Science of Space Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat

2011-01-01

The international space science community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by SCOSTEP and the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI). The ISWI program is a continuation of the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program. These programs have brought scientists together to tackle the scientific issues behind space weather. In addition to the vast array of space instruments, ground based instruments have been deployed, which not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. This paper presents a summary of CAWSES and ISWI activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations. capacity building. and public outreach.

ESA situational awareness of space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Keil, Ralf; Kraft, Stefan; Lupi, Adriano

2016-07-01

ESA SSA Period 2 started at the beginning of 2013 and will last until the end of 2016. For the Space Weather Segment, transition to Period 2 introduced an increasing amount of development of new space weather service capability in addition to networking existing European assets. This transition was started already towards the end of SSA Period 1 with the initiation of the SSA Space Weather Segment architecture definition studies and activities enhancing existing space weather assets. The objective of Period 2 has been to initiate SWE space segment developments in the form of hosted payload missions and further expand the federated service network. A strong focus has been placed on demonstration and testing of European capabilities in the range of SWE service domains with a view to establishing core products which can form the basis of SWE service provision during SSA Period 3. This focus has been particularly addressed in the SSA Expert Service Centre (ESC) Definition and Development activity that was started in September 2015. This presentation will cover the current status of the SSA SWE Segment and the achievements during SSA Programme Periods 1 and 2. Particular attention is given to the federated approach that allow building the end user services on the best European expertise. The presentation will also outline the plans for the Space Weather capability development in the framework of the ESA SSA Programme in 2017-2020.

CCMC: bringing space weather awareness to the next generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chulaki, A.; Muglach, K.; Zheng, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Thompson, B. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.

2017-12-01

Making space weather an element of core education is critical for the future of the young field of space weather. Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is an interagency partnership established to aid the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research. Additionally, over the past ten years it has established itself as a global space science education resource supporting undergraduate and graduate education and research, and spreading space weather awareness worldwide. A unique combination of assets, capabilities and close ties to the scientific and educational communities enable our small group to serve as a hub for rising generations of young space scientists and engineers. CCMC offers a variety of educational tools and resources publicly available online and providing access to the largest collection of modern space science models developed by the international research community. CCMC has revolutionized the way these simulations are utilized in classrooms settings, student projects, and scientific labs. Every year, this online system serves hundreds of students, educators and researchers worldwide. Another major CCMC asset is an expert space weather prototyping team primarily serving NASA's interplanetary space weather needs. Capitalizing on its unique capabilities and experiences, the team also provides in-depth space weather training to hundreds of students and professionals. One training module offers undergraduates an opportunity to actively engage in real-time space weather monitoring, analysis, forecasting, tools development and research, eventually serving remotely as NASA space weather forecasters. In yet another project, CCMC is collaborating with Hayden Planetarium and Linkoping University on creating a visualization platform for planetariums (and classrooms) to provide simulations of dynamic processes in the large domain stretching from the solar corona to the Earth's upper

Advancing Heliophysics and Space Weather Research with Student Internships and Faculty Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, L. P.; Ng, C.; Marchese, P.; Austin, S. A.; Frost, J.; Cheung, T. K.; Tremberger, G.; Robbins, I.; Carlson, B. E.; Paglione, T.; Damas, C.; Steiner, J. C.; Rudolph, E.; Lewis, E.; Ford, K. S.; Cline, T.

2011-12-01

Expanding research capability in Heliophysics and Space Weather is the major focus of a collaboration between the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Goddard Space Fight Center (GSFC). The Heliophysics Education Consortium has a two-pronged approach centered on undergraduate research and faculty development. Summer 2011 student research projects include: Comparison of Fast Propagating Solar Waves and Slow Kelvin-Helmholtz Waves captured by SDO; Brightness Fluctuation of March 8, 2011 Eruption with Magnetic Rope Structure Measured by SDO; Investigation of Sunspot Regions, Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Flares; An Integration and Testing Methodology for a Microsatellite; Comparative Analysis of Attitude Control Systems for Microsatellites; Spectral Analysis of Aerosols in Jupiter's Atmosphere Using HST Data; Alternative Sources of 5 GHz and 15 GHz Emissions in Active Galactic Nuclei; Probing Starburst-Driven Superwinds; Asteroid Astrometry; and Optimize an Electrostatic Deflection Element on PIXIES (Plasma Ion Experiment - Ion and Electron Sensor) for a CUNY student at GSFC. Faculty development workshops were conducted by Space Weather Action Center scientists. These workshops included a faculty development session at the CUNY Graduate Center and high school teachers professional development series at Queensborough Community College. The project is supported by NASA award NNX10AE72G.

Communicating space weather to policymakers and the wider public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Bárbara

2014-05-01

As a natural hazard, space weather has the potential to affect space- and ground-based technological systems and cause harm to human health. As such, it is important to properly communicate this topic to policymakers and the general public alike, informing them (without being unnecessarily alarmist) about the potential impact of space-weather phenomena and how these can be monitored and mitigated. On the other hand, space weather is related to interesting phenomena on the Sun such as coronal-mass ejections, and incorporates one of the most beautiful displays in the Earth and its nearby space environment: aurora. These exciting and fascinating aspects of space weather should be cultivated when communicating this topic to the wider public, particularly to younger audiences. Researchers have a key role to play in communicating space weather to both policymakers and the wider public. Space scientists should have an active role in informing policy decisions on space-weather monitoring and forecasting, for example. And they can exercise their communication skills by talking about space weather to school children and the public in general. This presentation will focus on ways to communicate space weather to wider audiences, particularly policymakers. It will also address the role researchers can play in this activity to help bridge the gap between the space science community and the public.

Solar EUV irradiance for space weather applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.

2015-12-01

Solar EUV irradiance is an important driver of space weather models. Large changes in EUV and x-ray irradiances create large variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere. Proxies such as the F10.7 cm radio flux, have provided reasonable estimates of the EUV flux but as the space weather models become more accurate and the demands of the customers become more stringent, proxies are no longer adequate. Furthermore, proxies are often provided only on a daily basis and shorter time scales are becoming important. Also, there is a growing need for multi-day forecasts of solar EUV irradiance to drive space weather forecast models. In this presentation we will describe the needs and requirements for solar EUV irradiance information from the space weather modeler's perspective. We will then translate these requirements into solar observational requirements such as spectral resolution and irradiance accuracy. We will also describe the activities at NOAA to provide long-term solar EUV irradiance observations and derived products that are needed for real-time space weather modeling.

Realtime Space Weather Forecasts Via Android Phone App

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowley, G.; Haacke, B.; Reynolds, A.

2010-12-01

For the past several years, ASTRA has run a first-principles global 3-D fully coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model in real-time for space weather applications. The model is the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM). ASTRA also runs the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) in real-time. Using AMIE to drive the high latitude inputs to the TIMEGCM produces high fidelity simulations of the global thermosphere and ionosphere. These simulations can be viewed on the Android Phone App developed by ASTRA. The SpaceWeather app for the Android operating system is free and can be downloaded from the Google Marketplace. We present the current status of realtime thermosphere-ionosphere space-weather forcasting and discuss the way forward. We explore some of the issues in maintaining real-time simulations with assimilative data feeds in a quasi-operational setting. We also discuss some of the challenges of presenting large amounts of data on a smartphone. The ASTRA SpaceWeather app includes the broadest and most unique range of space weather data yet to be found on a single smartphone app. This is a one-stop-shop for space weather and the only app where you can get access to ASTRA’s real-time predictions of the global thermosphere and ionosphere, high latitude convection and geomagnetic activity. Because of the phone's GPS capability, users can obtain location specific vertical profiles of electron density, temperature, and time-histories of various parameters from the models. The SpaceWeather app has over 9000 downloads, 30 reviews, and a following of active users. It is clear that real-time space weather on smartphones is here to stay, and must be included in planning for any transition to operational space-weather use.

Space Weather Needs of an Evolving Customer Base (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, B.; Viereck, R. A.; Onsager, T. G.

2013-12-01

Great progress has been made in raising the global awareness of space weather and the associated impacts on Earth and our technological systems. However, significant gaps still exist in providing comprehensive and easily understood space weather information, products, and services to the diverse and growing customer base. As technologies, such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), have become more ingrained in applications and fields of work that previously did not rely on systems sensitive to space weather, the customer base has grown substantially. Furthermore, the causes and effects of space weather can be difficult to interpret without a detailed understanding of the scientific underpinnings. In response to this change, space weather service providers must address this evolution by both improving services and by representing space weather information and impacts in ways that are meaningful to each facet of this diverse customer base. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) must work with users, spanning precision agriculture, emergency management, power grid operators and beyond, to both identify unmet space weather service requirements and to ensure information and decision support services are provided in meaningful and more easily understood forms.

The ESA Nanosatellite Beacons for Space Weather Monitoring Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapgood, M.; Eckersley, S.; Lundin, R.; Kluge, M.

2008-09-01

impact of nanosat fundamental limitations (e.g. mass, volume/size, power, communications). As a result, top-level Strawman mission concepts were developed for each constellation, and ROM costs were derived for programme development, operation and maintenance over a ten-year period. Nanosat reliability and constellation robustness were shown to be a key driver in deriving mission costs. In parallel with the mission analysis the study results have been reviewed to identify key issues that determine the prospects for a space weather nanosat programme and to make recommendations on measures to enable implementation of such a programme. As a follow-on to this study, a student MSc project was initiated by Astrium at Cranfield University to analyse a potential space weather precursor demonstration mission in GTO (one of the recommendations from this ESA study), composing of a reduced constellation of nanosats, launched on ASAP or some other low cost method. The demonstration would include: 1/ Low cost multiple manufacture techniques for a fully industrial nanosat constellation programme 2/ Real time datalinks and fully operational mission for space weather 3/ Miniaturised payloads to fit in a nanosat for space weather monitoring: 4/ Other possible demonstrations of advanced technology The aim was to comply with ESA demonstration mission (i.e. PROBA-type) requirements, to be representative on issues such as cost and risk

Space Weathering Rates in Lunar and Itokawa Samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, L. P.; Berger, E. L.

2017-01-01

Space weathering alters the chemistry, microstructure, and spectral proper-ties of grains on the surfaces of airless bodies by two major processes: micrometeorite impacts and solar wind interactions. Investigating the nature of space weathering processes both in returned samples and in remote sensing observations provides information fundamental to understanding the evolution of airless body regoliths, improving our ability to determine the surface composition of asteroids, and linking meteorites to specific asteroidal parent bodies. Despite decades of research into space weathering processes and their effects, we still know very little about weathering rates. For example, what is the timescale to alter the reflectance spectrum of an ordinary chondrite meteorite to resemble the overall spectral shape and slope from an S-type asteroid? One approach to answering this question has been to determine ages of asteroid families by dynamical modeling and determine the spectral proper-ties of the daughter fragments. However, large differences exist between inferred space weathering rates and timescales derived from laboratory experiments, analysis of asteroid family spectra and the space weathering styles; estimated timescales range from 5000 years up to 108 years. Vernazza et al. concluded that solar wind interactions dominate asteroid space weathering on rapid timescales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. Shestopalov et al. suggested that impact-gardening of regolith particles and asteroid resurfacing counteract the rapid progress of solar wind optical maturation of asteroid surfaces and proposed a space weathering timescale of 10(exp 5)-10(exp 6) years.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

2015-12-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

Third Space Weather Summit Held for Industry and Government Agencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intriligator, Devrie S.

2009-12-01

The potential for space weather effects has been increasing significantly in recent years. For instance, in 2008 airlines flew about 8000 transpolar flights, which experience greater exposure to space weather than nontranspolar flights. This is up from 368 transpolar flights in 2000, and the number of such flights is expected to continue to grow. Transpolar flights are just one example of the diverse technologies susceptible to space weather effects identified by the National Research Council's Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (2008). To discuss issues related to the increasing need for reliable space weather information, experts from industry and government agencies met at the third summit of the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group (CSWIG) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), held 30 April 2009 during Space Weather Week (SWW), in Boulder, Colo.

Near Real Time Data for Operational Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, T. E.

2014-12-01

Space weather operations presents unique challenges for data systems and providers. Space weather events evolve more quickly than terrestrial weather events. While terrestrial weather occurs on timescales of minutes to hours, space weather storms evolve on timescales of seconds to minutes. For example, the degradation of the High Frequency Radio communications between the ground and commercial airlines is nearly instantaneous when a solar flare occurs. Thus the customer is observing impacts at the same time that the operational forecast center is seeing the event unfold. The diversity and spatial scale of the space weather system is such that no single observation can capture the salient features. The vast space that encompasses space weather and the scarcity of observations further exacerbates the situation and make each observation even more valuable. The physics of interplanetary space, through which many major storms propagate, is very different from the physics of the ionosphere where most of the impacts are felt. And while some observations can be made from ground-based observatories, many of the most critical data comes from satellites, often in unique orbits far from Earth. In this presentation, I will describe some of the more important sources and types of data that feed into the operational alerts, watches, and warnings of space weather storms. Included will be a discussion of some of the new space weather forecast models and the data challenges that they bring forward.

The Sun/Earth System and Space Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poland, Arthur I.; Fox, Nicola; Lucid, Shannon

2003-01-01

Solar variability and solar activity are now seen as significant drivers with respect to the Earth and human technology systems. Observations over the last 10 years have significantly advanced our understanding of causes and effects in the Sun/Earth system. On a practical level the interactions between the Sun and Earth dictate how we build our systems in space (communications satellites, GPS, etc), and some of our ground systems (power grids). This talk will be about the Sun/Earth system: how it changes with time, its magnetic interactions, flares, the solar wind, and how the Sun effects human systems. Data will be presented from some current spacecraft which show, for example, how we are able to currently give warnings to the scientific community, the Government and industry about space storms and how this data has improved our physical understanding of processes on the Sun and in the magnetosphere. The scientific advances provided by our current spacecraft has led to a new program in NASA to develop a 'Space Weather' system called 'Living With a Star'. The current plan for the 'Living With a Star' program will also be presented.

Incremental laser space weathering of Allende reveals non-lunar like space weathering effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillis-Davis, Jeffrey J.; Lucey, Paul G.; Bradley, John P.; Ishii, Hope A.; Kaluna, Heather M.; Misra, Anumpam; Connolly, Harold C.

2017-04-01

We report findings from a series of laser-simulated space weathering experiments on Allende, a CV3 carbonaceous chondrite. The purpose of these experiments is to understand how spectra of anhydrous C-complex asteroids might vary as a function of micrometeorite bombardment. Four 0.5-gram aliquots of powdered, unpacked Allende meteorite were incrementally laser weathered with 30 mJ pulses while under vacuum. Radiative transfer modeling of the spectra and Scanning Transmission Electron Microscope (STEM) analyses of the samples show lunar-like similarities and differences in response to laser-simulated space weathering. For instance, laser weathered Allende exhibited lunar-like spectral changes. The overall spectra from visible to near infrared (Vis-NIR) redden and darken, and characteristic absorption bands weaken as a function of laser exposure. Unlike lunar weathering, however, the continuum slope between 450-550 nm does not vary monotonically with laser irradiation. Initially, spectra in this region redden with laser irradiation; then, the visible continua become less red and eventually spectrally bluer. STEM analyses of less mature samples confirm submicroscopic iron metal (SMFe) and micron sized sulfides. More mature samples reveal increased dispersal of Fe-Ni sulfides by the laser, which we infer to be the cause for the non-lunar-like changes in spectral behavior. Spectra of laser weathered Allende are a reasonable match to T- or possibly K-type asteroids; though the spectral match with a parent body is not exact. The key take away is, laser weathered Allende looks spectrally different (i.e., darker, and redder or bluer depending on the wavelength region) than its unweathered spectrum. Consequently, connecting meteorites to asteroids using unweathered spectra of meteorites would result in a different parent body than one matched on the basis of weathered spectra. Further, spectra for these laser weathering experiments may provide an explanation for

Space weather effects on ground based technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, T.

Space weather can affect a variety of forms of ground-based technology, usually as a result of either the direct effects of the varying geomagnetic field, or as a result of the induced electric field that accompanies such variations. Technologies affected directly by geomagnetic variations include magnetic measurements made d ringu geophysical surveys, and navigation relying on the geomagnetic field as a direction reference, a method that is particularly common in the surveying of well-bores in the oil industry. The most obvious technology affected by induced electric fields during magnetic storms is electric power transmission, where the example of the blackout in Quebec during the March 1989 magnetic storm is widely known. Additionally, space weather effects must be taken into account in the design of active cathodic protection systems on pipelines to protect them against corrosion. Long-distance telecommunication cables may also have to be designed to cope with space weather related effects. This paper reviews the effects of space weather in these different areas of ground-based technology, and provides examples of how mitigation against hazards may be achieved. (The paper does not include the effects of space weather on radio communication or satellite navigation systems).

Latest Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) services and innovative tools supporting the space weather research and operational communities.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, A. M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Shim, J. S.; MacNeice, P. J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Weigand, C.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.; Patel, K.; Pembroke, A. D.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Boblitt, J. M.; Bakshi, S. S.; Tsui, T.

2017-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), with the fundamental goal of aiding the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research, has been serving as an integral hub for over 15 years, providing invaluable resources to both space weather scientific and operational communities. CCMC has developed and provided innovative web-based point of access tools varying from: Runs-On-Request System - providing unprecedented global access to the largest collection of state-of-the-art solar and space physics models, Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) - a powerful dissemination system for space weather information, Advanced Online Visualization and Analysis tools for more accurate interpretation of model results, Standard Data formats for Simulation Data downloads, and Mobile apps to view space weather data anywhere to the scientific community. In addition to supporting research and performing model evaluations, CCMC also supports space science education by hosting summer students through local universities. In this poster, we will showcase CCMC's latest innovative tools and services, and CCMC's tools that revolutionized the way we do research and improve our operational space weather capabilities. CCMC's free tools and resources are all publicly available online (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov).

Space Weather Outreach: Connection to STEM Standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dusenbery, P. B.

2008-12-01

Many scientists are studying the Sun-Earth system and attempting to provide timely, accurate, and reliable space environment observations and forecasts. Research programs and missions serve as an ideal focal point for creating educational content, making this an ideal time to inform the public about the importance and value of space weather research. In order to take advantage of this opportunity, the Space Science Institute (SSI) is developing a comprehensive Space Weather Outreach program to reach students, educators, and other members of the public, and share with them the exciting discoveries from this important scientific discipline. The Space Weather Outreach program has the following five components: (1) the Space Weather Center Website that includes online educational games; (2) Small Exhibits for Libraries, Shopping Malls, and Science Centers; (3) After-School Programs; (4) Professional Development Workshops for Educators, and (5) an innovative Evaluation and Education Research project. Its overarching goal is to inspire, engage, and educate a broad spectrum of the public and make strategic and innovative connections between informal and K-12 education communities. An important factor in the success of this program will be its alignment with STEM standards especially those related to science and mathematics. This presentation will describe the Space Weather Outreach program and how standards are being used in the development of each of its components.

Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, Carolus J.; Kauristie, Kirsti; Aylward, Alan D.; Denardini, Clezio M.; Gibson, Sarah E.; Glover, Alexi; Gopalswamy, Nat; Grande, Manuel; Hapgood, Mike; Heynderickx, Daniel; Jakowski, Norbert; Kalegaev, Vladimir V.; Lapenta, Giovanni; Linker, Jon A.; Liu, Siqing; Mandrini, Cristina H.; Mann, Ian R.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Nandy, Dibyendu; Obara, Takahiro; Paul O'Brien, T.; Onsager, Terrance; Opgenoorth, Hermann J.; Terkildsen, Michael; Valladares, Cesar E.; Vilmer, Nicole

2015-06-01

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. We recognize that much progress has been made and continues to be made with a powerful suite of research observatories on the ground and in space, forming the basis of a Sun-Earth system observatory. But the domain of space weather is vast - extending from deep within the Sun to far outside the planetary orbits - and the physics complex - including couplings between various types of physical processes that link scales and domains from the microscopic to large parts of the solar system. Consequently, advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 h ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4

Space Weathering in the Mercurian Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.

2001-01-01

Space weathering processes are known to be important on the Moon. These processes both create the lunar regolith and alter its optical properties. Like the Moon, Mercury has no atmosphere to protect it from the harsh space environment and therefore it is expected that it will also incur the effects of space weathering. However, there are many important differences between the environments of Mercury and the Moon. These environmental differences will almost certainly affect the weathering processes and the products of those processes. It should be possible to observe the effects of these differences in Vis (visible)/NIR (near infrared) spectra of the type expected to be returned by MESSENGER. More importantly, understanding these weathering processes and their consequences is essential for evaluating the spectral data returned from MESSENGER and other missions in order to determine the mineralogy and the Fe content of the Mercurian surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Joseph M.

2010-01-01

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) provided a successful model for the deployment of arrays of small scientific instruments in new and scientifically interesting geographic locations, and outreach. The new International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is designed to build on this momentum to promote the observation, understanding, and prediction space weather phenomena, and to communicate the scientific results to the public.

Weathering a Perfect Storm from Space

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.

2016-01-01

Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.

Predicting Space Weather: Challenges for Research and Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, H. J.; Onsager, T. G.; Rutledge, R.; Viereck, R. A.; Kunches, J.

2013-12-01

Society's growing dependence on technologies and infrastructure susceptible to the consequences of space weather has given rise to increased attention at the highest levels of government as well as inspired the need for both research and improved space weather services. In part, for these reasons, the number one goal of the recent National Research Council report on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics is to 'Determine the origins of the Sun's activity and predict the variations in the space environment.' Prediction of conditions in our space environment is clearly a challenge for both research and operations, and we require the near-term development and validation of models that have sufficient accuracy and lead time to be useful to those impacted by space weather. In this presentation, we will provide new scientific results of space weather conditions that have challenged space weather forecasters, and identify specific areas of research that can lead to improved capabilities. In addition, we will examine examples of customer impacts and requirements as well as the challenges to the operations community to establish metrics that enable the selection and transition of models and observations that can provide the greatest economic and societal benefit.

Space Weather Data Drop

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Space weather data collected via instruments on GPS satellites has been made available to researchers for the first time. The instruments were developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory and ride aboard 23 of the nation’s more than 30 on-orbit GPS satellites. When you multiply the number of satellites collecting data with the number of years they’ve been doing it, it totals more than 167 years. This data gives researchers a treasure trove of measurements that they can use to better understand how space weather works and how best to protect critical infrastructure, such as the nation’s satellites, aircraft, communications networks,more » navigation systems, and the electric power grid.« less

Presenting Critical Space Weather Information to Customers and Stakeholders (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.; Singer, H. J.; Murtagh, W. J.; Rutledge, B.

2013-12-01

Space weather involves changes in the near-Earth space environment that impact technological systems such as electric power, radio communication, satellite navigation (GPS), and satellite opeartions. As with terrestrial weather, there are several different kinds of space weather and each presents unique challenges to the impacted technologies and industries. But unlike terrestrial weather, many customers are not fully aware of space weather or how it impacts their systems. This issue is further complicated by the fact that the largest space weather events occur very infrequently with years going by without severe storms. Recent reports have estimated very large potential costs to the economy and to society if a geomagnetic storm were to cause major damage to the electric power transmission system. This issue has come to the attention of emergency managers and federal agencies including the office of the president. However, when considering space weather impacts, it is essential to also consider uncertainties in the frequency of events and the predicted impacts. The unique nature of space weather storms, the specialized technologies that are impacted by them, and the disparate groups and agencies that respond to space weather forecasts and alerts create many challenges to the task of communicating space weather information to the public. Many customers that receive forecasts and alerts are highly technical and knowledgeable about the subtleties of the space environment. Others know very little and require ongoing education and explanation about how a space weather storm will affect their systems. In addition, the current knowledge and understanding of the space environment that goes into forecasting storms is quite immature. It has only been within the last five years that physics-based models of the space environment have played important roles in predictions. Thus, the uncertainties in the forecasts are quite large. There is much that we don't know about space

Health Issues and Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosby, N.

2009-04-01

The possibility that solar activity and variations in the Earth's magnetic field may affect human health has been debated for many decades but is still a "scientific topic" in its infancy. By learning whether and, if so, how much the Earth's space weather can influence the daily health of people will be of practical importance. Knowing whether human genetics, include regulating factors that take into account fluctuations of the Earth's magnetic field and solar disturbances, indeed exist will also benefit future interplanetary space travelers. Because the atmospheres on other planets are different from ours, as well as their interaction with the space environment, one may ask whether we are equipped with the genetics necessary to take this variability into account. The goal of this presentation is to define what is meant by space weather as a health risk and identify the long-term socio-economic effects on society that such health risks would have. Identifying the physical links between space weather sources and different effects on human health, as well as the parameters (direct and indirect) to be monitored, the potential for such a cross-disciplinary study will be invaluable, for scientists and medical doctors, as well as for engineers.

Recent Advances in Atmospheric, Solar-Terrestrial Physics and Space Weather From a North-South network of scientists [2006-2016] PART B : Results and Capacity Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amory-Mazaudier, C.; Fleury, R.; Petitdidier, M.; Soula, S.; Masson, F.; Davila, J.; Doherty, P.; Elias, A.; Gadimova, S.; Makela, J.; Nava, B.; Radicella, S.; Richardson, J.; Touzani, A.; Girgea Team

2017-12-01

This paper reviews scientific advances achieved by a North-South network between 2006 and 2016. These scientific advances concern solar terrestrial physics, atmospheric physics and space weather. This part B is devoted to the results and capacity building. Our network began in 1991, in solar terrestrial physics, by our participation in the two projects: International Equatorial Electrojet Year IEEY [1992-1993] and International Heliophysical Year IHY [2007-2009]. These two projects were mainly focused on the equatorial ionosphere in Africa. In Atmospheric physics our research focused on gravity waves in the framework of the African Multidisciplinary Monsoon Analysis project n°1 [2005-2009 ], on hydrology in the Congo river basin and on lightning in Central Africa, the most lightning part of the world. In Vietnam the study of a broad climate data base highlighted global warming. In space weather, our results essentially concern the impact of solar events on global navigation satellite system GNSS and on the effects of solar events on the circulation of electric currents in the earth (GIC). This research began in the framework of the international space weather initiative project ISWI [2010-2012]. Finally, all these scientific projects have enabled young scientists from the South to publish original results and to obtain positions in their countries. These projects have also crossed disciplinary boundaries and defined a more diversified education which led to the training of specialists in a specific field with knowledge of related scientific fields.

Integration Of Space Weather Into Space Situational Awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeves, G.

2010-09-01

Rapid assessment of space weather effects on satellites is a critical step in anomaly resolution and satellite threat assessment. That step, however, is often hindered by a number of factors including timely collection and delivery of space weather data and the inherent complexity of space weather information. As part of a larger, integrated space situational awareness program, Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed prototype operational space weather tools that run in real time and present operators with customized, user-specific information. The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) focuses on the penetrating radiation environment from natural or nuclear-produced radiation belts. The penetrating radiation environment is highly dynamic and highly orbitdependent. Operators often must rely only on line plots of 2 MeV electron flux from the NOAA geosynchronous GOES satellites which is then assumed to be representative of the environment at the satellite of interest. DREAM uses data assimilation to produce a global, real-time, energy dependent specification. User tools are built around a distributed service oriented architecture (SOA) which allows operators to select any satellite from the space catalog and examine the environment for that specific satellite and time of interest. Depending on the application operators may need to examine instantaneous dose rates and/or dose accumulated over various lengths of time. Further, different energy thresholds can be selected depending on the shielding on the satellite or instrument of interest. In order to rapidly assess the probability that space weather effects, the current conditions can be compared against the historical distribution of radiation levels for that orbit. In the simplest operation a user would select a satellite and time of interest and immediately see if the environmental conditions were typical, elevated, or extreme based on how often those conditions occur in that orbit. This

Integration of space weather into space situational awareness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reeves, Geoffrey D

Rapid assessment of space weather effects on satellites is a critical step in anomaly resolution and satellite threat assessment. That step, however, is often hindered by a number of factors including timely collection and delivery of space weather data and the inherent com plexity of space weather information. As part of a larger, integrated space situational awareness program, Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed prototype operational space weather tools that run in real time and present operators with customized, user-specific information. The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) focuses on the penetrating radiation environment from natural or nuclear-produced radiation belts.more » The penetrating radiation environment is highly dynamic and highly orbit-dependent. Operators often must rely only on line plots of 2 MeV electron flux from the NOAA geosynchronous GOES satellites which is then assumed to be representative of the environment at the satellite of interest. DREAM uses data assimilation to produce a global, real-time, energy dependent specification. User tools are built around a distributed service oriented architecture (SOA) which will allow operators to select any satellite from the space catalog and examine the environment for that specific satellite and time of interest. Depending on the application operators may need to examine instantaneous dose rates and/or dose accumulated over various lengths of time. Further, different energy thresholds can be selected depending on the shielding on the satellite or instrument of interest. In order to rapidly assess the probability that space weather was the cause of anomalous operations, the current conditions can be compared against the historical distribution of radiation levels for that orbit. In the simplest operation a user would select a satellite and time of interest and immediately see if the environmental conditions were typical, elevated, or extreme based on how often

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: A Powerful Resource in Space Science and Space Weather Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chulaki, A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J. S.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Pembroke, A. D.; Wiegand, C.

2015-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a NASA affiliated interagency partnership with the primary goal of aiding the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research. Additionally, over the past ten years it has established itself as a global space science education resource supporting undergraduate and graduate education and research, and spreading space weather awareness worldwide. A unique combination of assets, capabilities and close ties to the scientific and educational communities enable this small group to serve as a hub for raising generations of young space scientists and engineers. CCMC resources are publicly available online, providing unprecedented global access to the largest collection of modern space science models (developed by the international research community). CCMC has revolutionized the way simulations are utilized in classrooms settings, student projects, and scientific labs and serves hundreds of educators, students and researchers every year. Another major CCMC asset is an expert space weather prototyping team primarily serving NASA's interplanetary space weather needs. Capitalizing on its unrivaled capabilities and experiences, the team provides in-depth space weather training to students and professionals worldwide, and offers an amazing opportunity for undergraduates to engage in real-time space weather monitoring, analysis, forecasting and research. In-house development of state-of-the-art space weather tools and applications provides exciting opportunities to students majoring in computer science and computer engineering fields to intern with the software engineers at the CCMC while also learning about the space weather from the NASA scientists.

Industry and Government Officials Meet for Space Weather Summit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intriligator, Devrie S.

2008-10-01

Commercial airlines, electric power grids, cell phones, handheld Global Positioning Systems: Although the Sun is less active due to solar minimum, the number and types of situations and technologies that can benefit from up-to-date space weather information are growing. To address this, the second annual summit of the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group (CSWIG) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) was held on 1 May 2008 during Space Weather Workshop (SWW), in Boulder, Colo.

Fifth Space Weather Enterprise Forum Reaches New Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.

2011-09-01

As the world's commercial infrastructure grows more dependent on sensitive electronics and space-based technologies, the global economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable to solar storms. Experts from the federal government, academia, and the private sector met to discuss the societal effects of major solar storms and other space weather at the fifth annual Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF), held on 21 June 2011 at the National Press Club in Washington, D. C. More than 200 members of the space weather community attended this year's SWEF, which focused on the consequences of severe space weather for national security, critical infrastructure, and human safety. Participants also addressed the question of how to prepare for and mitigate those consequences as the current solar cycle approaches and reaches its peak, expected in 2013. This year's forum included details of plans for a "Unified National Space Weather Capability," a new interagency initiative which will be implemented over the next two years, designed to improve forecasting, warning, and other services ahead of the coming solar maximum.

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuznetsova, M.; Maddox, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Macneice, P.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Zheng, Y.;

A regressive storm model for extreme space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terkildsen, Michael; Steward, Graham; Neudegg, Dave; Marshall, Richard

2012-07-01

Extreme space weather events, while rare, pose significant risk to society in the form of impacts on critical infrastructure such as power grids, and the disruption of high end technological systems such as satellites and precision navigation and timing systems. There has been an increased focus on modelling the effects of extreme space weather, as well as improving the ability of space weather forecast centres to identify, with sufficient lead time, solar activity with the potential to produce extreme events. This paper describes the development of a data-based model for predicting the occurrence of extreme space weather events from solar observation. The motivation for this work was to develop a tool to assist space weather forecasters in early identification of solar activity conditions with the potential to produce extreme space weather, and with sufficient lead time to notify relevant customer groups. Data-based modelling techniques were used to construct the model, and an extensive archive of solar observation data used to train, optimise and test the model. The optimisation of the base model aimed to eliminate false negatives (missed events) at the expense of a tolerable increase in false positives, under the assumption of an iterative improvement in forecast accuracy during progression of the solar disturbance, as subsequent data becomes available.

Collaboration Between Government and Commercial Space Weather Information Providers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intriligator, Devrie

2007-10-01

Many systems and situations require up-to-date space weather information. These include navigation systems in cars, boats, and commercial freight; the specific location information needed for construction and oil drilling; communications; airline navigation; avionic systems; and passengers and personnel on polar airline flights. Thus, as the world's industries become increasingly more reliant on satellite data and more vulnerable to space weather conditions, new collaborations will have to be formed between commercial providers of space weather information and the government scientists who monitor space weather.

Demonstration of NICT Space Weather Cloud --Integration of Supercomputer into Analysis and Visualization Environment--

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watari, S.; Morikawa, Y.; Yamamoto, K.; Inoue, S.; Tsubouchi, K.; Fukazawa, K.; Kimura, E.; Tatebe, O.; Kato, H.; Shimojo, S.; Murata, K. T.

2010-12-01

In the Solar-Terrestrial Physics (STP) field, spatio-temporal resolution of computer simulations is getting higher and higher because of tremendous advancement of supercomputers. A more advanced technology is Grid Computing that integrates distributed computational resources to provide scalable computing resources. In the simulation research, it is effective that a researcher oneself designs his physical model, performs calculations with a supercomputer, and analyzes and visualizes for consideration by a familiar method. A supercomputer is far from an analysis and visualization environment. In general, a researcher analyzes and visualizes in the workstation (WS) managed at hand because the installation and the operation of software in the WS are easy. Therefore, it is necessary to copy the data from the supercomputer to WS manually. Time necessary for the data transfer through long delay network disturbs high-accuracy simulations actually. In terms of usefulness, integrating a supercomputer and an analysis and visualization environment seamlessly with a researcher's familiar method is important. NICT has been developing a cloud computing environment (NICT Space Weather Cloud). In the NICT Space Weather Cloud, disk servers are located near its supercomputer and WSs for data analysis and visualization. They are connected to JGN2plus that is high-speed network for research and development. Distributed virtual high-capacity storage is also constructed by Grid Datafarm (Gfarm v2). Huge-size data output from the supercomputer is transferred to the virtual storage through JGN2plus. A researcher can concentrate on the research by a familiar method without regard to distance between a supercomputer and an analysis and visualization environment. Now, total 16 disk servers are setup in NICT headquarters (at Koganei, Tokyo), JGN2plus NOC (at Otemachi, Tokyo), Okinawa Subtropical Environment Remote-Sensing Center, and Cybermedia Center, Osaka University. They are connected on

Using Science Data and Models for Space Weather Forecasting - Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, Michael; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo; Berrios, David; Taktakishvili, Sandro; Kuznetsova, Masha; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook; Mullinix, Rick;

Current gaps in understanding and predicting space weather: An operations perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murtagh, W. J.

2016-12-01

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), one of the nine National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction, is the Nation's official source for space weather alerts and warnings. Space weather effects the technology that forms the backbone of global economic vitality and national security, including satellite and airline operations, communications networks, and the electric power grid. Many of SWPC's over 48,000 subscribers rely on space weather forecasts for critical decision making. But extraordinary gaps still exist in our ability to meet customer needs for accurate and timely space weather forecasts and warnings. The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy recognizes that it is imperative that we improve the fundamental understanding of space weather and increase the accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of space-weather observations and forecasts in support of the growing demands. In this talk we provide a broad perspective of the key challenges that currently limit the forecaster's ability to better understand and predict space weather. We also examine the impact of these limitations on the end-user community.

ISES Experience in Delivering Space Weather Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boteler, David

The International Space Environment Service has over eighty years experience in providing space weather services to meet a wide variety of user needs. This started with broadcast on December 1, 2008 from the Eiffel Tower about radio conditions. The delivery of information about ionospheric effects on high frequency (HF) radio propagation continue to be a major concern in many parts of the world. The movement into space brought requirements for a new set of space weather services, ranging from radiation dangers to man in space, damage to satellites and effects on satellite communication and navigation systems. On the ground magnetic survey, power system and pipeline operators require information about magnetic disturbances that can affect their operations. In the past these services have been delivered by individual Regional Warning Centres. However, the needs of new trans-national users are stimulating the development of new collaborative international space weather services.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts Issued by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharpe, M. A.; Murray, S. A.

2017-10-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre was founded in 2014 and part of its remit is a daily Space Weather Technical Forecast to help the UK build resilience to space weather impacts; guidance includes 4 day geomagnetic storm forecasts (GMSF) and X-ray flare forecasts (XRFF). It is crucial for forecasters, users, modelers, and stakeholders to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these forecasts; therefore, it is important to verify against the most reliable truth data source available. The present study contains verification results for XRFFs using Geo-Orbiting Earth Satellite 15 satellite data and GMSF using planetary K-index (Kp) values from the GFZ Helmholtz Centre. To assess the value of the verification results, it is helpful to compare them against a reference forecast and the frequency of occurrence during a rolling prediction period is used for this purpose. An analysis of the rolling 12 month performance over a 19 month period suggests that both the XRFF and GMSF struggle to provide a better prediction than the reference. However, a relative operating characteristic and reliability analysis of the full 19 month period reveals that although the GMSF and XRFF possess discriminatory skill, events tend to be overforecast.

Recent Activities on the Embrace Space Weather Regional Warning Center: the New Space Weather Data Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dal Lago, Alisson; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Takahashi, Hisao; Costa, D. Joaquim; Banik Padua, Marcelo; Campos Velho, Haroldo

2016-07-01

On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is known by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement "Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial" Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The mission of the Embrace/INPE program is to monitor the Solar-Terrestrial environment, the magnetosphere, the upper atmosphere and the ground induced currents to prevent effects on technological and economic activities. The Embrace/INPE system monitors the physical parameters of the Sun-Earth environment, such as Active Regions (AR) in the Sun and solar radiation by using radio telescope, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) information by satellite and ground-based cosmic ray monitoring, geomagnetic activity by the magnetometer network, and ionospheric disturbance by ionospheric sounders and using data collected by four GPS receiver network, geomagnetic activity by a magnetometer network, and provides a forecasting for Total Electronic Content (TEC) - 24 hours ahead - using a version of the SUPIM model which assimilates the two latter data using nudging approach. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. Regarding outreach, it has being published a daily bulletin in Portuguese and English with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus. Recently, a comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under commissioning to allow an easy and direct access to all the space weather data collected by Embrace through the Embrace web Portal. The information being released encompasses data from: (a) the Embrace Digisonde Network (Embrace DigiNet) that monitors

Space Weather Forecasting and Supporting Research in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pevtsov, A. A.

2017-12-01

In the United State, scientific research in space weather is funded by several Government Agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). For civilian and commercial purposes, space weather forecast is done by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Observational data for modeling come from the network of groundbased observatories funded via various sources, as well as from the instruments on spacecraft. Numerical models used in forecast are developed in framework of individual research projects. The article provides a brief review of current state of space weather-related research and forecasting in the USA.

Adverse Space Weather at the Solar Cycle Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; McCollough, J. P.; Singer, H. J.; Chappell, S. P.; Allen, J. H.

2008-05-01

It is commonly understood that many types of adverse space weather (solar flares, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms) occur most commonly around the maximum of the 11-year sunspot activity cycle. Other types of well-known space weather such as relativistic electron events in the Earth's outer magnetosphere (that produce deep dielectric charging in spacecraft systems) are usually associated with the period just after sunspot maximum. At the present time, we are in the very lowest activity phase of the sunspot cycle (solar minimum). As such we would not expect much in the way of adverse space weather events. However, in early to mid-February of 2008 quite prominent solar coronal holes produced two high-speed streams that in turn stimulated very large, long-duration relativistic electron enhancements in Earth's magnetosphere. These seem to have been associated with several spacecraft operational anomalies at various spacecraft orbital locations. We describe these recent space weather events and assess their operational significance in this presentation. These results show that substantial space weather events can and do occur even during the quietest parts of the solar cycle.

Space Weather Workshop 2010 to Be Held in April

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltzer, Thomas

2010-03-01

The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 27-30 April 2010. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda include ionospheric storms and their impacts on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), an update on NASA's recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and new space weather-related activities in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Also this year, the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group will feature a presentation by former NOAA administrator, Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, U.S. Navy (Ret.).

Introduction to the Space Weather Monitoring System at KASI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, J.; Choi, S.; Kim, Y.; Cho, K.; Bong, S.; Lee, J.; Kwak, Y.; Hwang, J.; Park, Y.; Hwang, E.

2014-05-01

We have developed the Space Weather Monitoring System (SWMS) at the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI). Since 2007, the system has continuously evolved into a better system. The SWMS consists of several subsystems: applications which acquire and process observational data, servers which run the applications, data storage, and display facilities which show the space weather information. The applications collect solar and space weather data from domestic and oversea sites. The collected data are converted to other format and/or visualized in real time as graphs and illustrations. We manage 3 data acquisition and processing servers, a file service server, a web server, and 3 sets of storage systems. We have developed 30 applications for a variety of data, and the volume of data is about 5.5 GB per day. We provide our customers with space weather contents displayed at the Space Weather Monitoring Lab (SWML) using web services.

Sunspots, Space Weather and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.

2009-01-01

Four hundred years ago this year the telescope was first used for astronomical observations. Within a year, Galileo in Italy and Harriot in England reported seeing spots on the surface of the Sun. Yet, it took over 230 years of observations before a Swiss amateur astronomer noticed that the sunspots increased and decreased in number over a period of about 11 years. Within 15 years of this discovery of the sunspot cycle astronomers made the first observations of a flare on the surface of the Sun. In the 150 years since that discovery we have learned much about sunspots, the sunspot cycle, and the Sun s explosive events - solar flares, prominence eruptions and coronal mass ejections that usually accompany the sunspots. These events produce what is called Space Weather. The conditions in space are dramatically affected by these events. Space Weather can damage our satellites, harm our astronauts, and affect our lives here on the surface of planet Earth. Long term changes in the sunspot cycle have been linked to changes in our climate as well. In this public lecture I will give an introduction to sunspots, the sunspot cycle, space weather, and the possible impact of solar variability on our climate.

International Collaboration in Space Weather Situational Awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boteler, David; Trichtchenko, Larisa; Danskin, Donald

Space weather is a global phenomena so interntional collaboration is necessary to maintain awareness of potentially dangerous conditions. The Regional Warning Centres (RWCs) of the International Space Environment Service were set up during the International Geophysical Year to alert the scientific community to conditions requiring special measurements. The information sharing continues to this day with URSIGRAM messages exchanged between RWCs to help them produce space weather forecasts. Venturing into space, especially with manned missions, created a need to know about the space environment and particularly radiation dangers to man in space. Responding to this need led to the creation of a network of stations around the world to provide continuous monitoring of solar activity. Solar wind monitoring is now provided by the ACE satellite, operated by one country, but involving international collaborators to bring the information down in real time. Disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field are monitored by many magnetic observatories that are collaborating through INTERMAGNET to provide reliable data. Space weather produces effects on the ionosphere that can interfere with a variety of systems: the International GNSS Service provides information about effects on positioning systems, and the International Space Environment Service is providing information about iono-spheric absorption, particularly for trans-polar airline operations. The increasing availability of internet access, even at remote locations, is making it easier to obtain the raw information. The challenge now is how to integrate that information to provide effective international situational awareness of space weather.

Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

SaintCyr, Chris; Murtagh, Bill

2008-01-01

"Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

The ESA Space Weather Applications Pilot Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glover, A.; Hilgers, A.; Daly, E.

Following the completion in 2001 of two parallel studies to consider the feasibility of a European Space Weather Programme ESA embarked upon a space weather pilot study with the goal of prototyping European space weather services and assessing the overall market for such within Europe This pilot project centred on a number of targeted service development activities supported by a common infrastructure and making use of only existing space weather assets Each service activity included clear participation from at least one identified service user who was requested to provide initial requirements and regular feedback during the operational phase of the service These service activities are now reaching the end of their 2-year development and testing phase and are now accessible each with an element of the service in the public domain see http www esa-spaceweathet net swenet An additional crucial element of the study was the inclusion of a comprehensive and independent analysis of the benefits both economic and strategic of embarking on a programme which would include the deployment of an infrastructure with space-based elements The results of this study will be reported together with their implication for future coordinated European activities in this field

Achievements and Challenges in the Science of Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koskinen, Hannu E. J.; Baker, Daniel N.; Balogh, André; Gombosi, Tamas; Veronig, Astrid; von Steiger, Rudolf

2017-11-01

In June 2016 a group of 40 space weather scientists attended the workshop on Scientific Foundations of Space Weather at the International Space Science Institute in Bern. In this lead article to the volume based on the talks and discussions during the workshop we review some of main past achievements in the field and outline some of the challenges that the science of space weather is facing today and in the future.

NASA Dryden Flight Research Center's Space Weather Needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiley, Scott

2011-01-01

Presentation involves educating Goddard Space Weather staff about what our needs are, what type of aircraft we have and to learn what we have done in the past to minimize our exposure to Space Weather Hazards.

Space Weathering: Laboratory Analyses and In-Situ Instrumentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bentley, M. S.; Ball, A. J.; Dyar, M. D.; Pieters, C. M.; Wright, I. P.; Zarnecki, J. C.

2005-01-01

Space weathering is now understood to be a key modifier of visible and near infrared reflectance spectra of airless bodies. Believed to be caused by vapour recondensation after either ion sputtering or impact vaporization, space weathering has been successfully simulated in the laboratory over the past few years. The optical changes caused by space weathering have been attributed to the accumulation of sub-microscopic iron on regolith grain surfaces. Such fine-grained metallic iron has distinctive magnetic properties that can be used to study it.

Observations and Impact Assessments of Extreme Space Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D. N.

2007-05-01

"Space weather" refers to conditions on the Sun, in the solar wind, and in Earth`s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere. Activity on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections can lead to high levels of radiation in space and can cause major magnetic storms at the Earth. Space radiation can come as energetic particles or as electromagnetic emissions. Adverse conditions in the near-Earth space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids. This can lead to a variety of socioeconomic losses. Astronauts and airline passengers exposed to high levels of radiation are also at risk. Society`s vulnerability to space weather effects is an issue of increasing concern. We are dependent on technological systems that are becoming more susceptible to space weather disturbances. We also have a permanent human presence in space with the International Space Station and the President and NASA have expressed a desire to expand our human space activities with missions to the moon and Mars. This will make space weather of even greater concern in the future. In this talk I will describe many space weather effects and will describe some of the societal and economic impacts that extreme events have had.

A survey of of uses and value of space weather information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, C. J.; Rabanal, J.

2013-12-01

We analyze some 2,800 responses to a survey among subscribers of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center email services. Interest in, anticipated impacts from, and responses to solar flares, energetic particle events, and geomagnetic storms are quite uniform across societal sectors. Approximately 40% of the respondents expect serious to very serious impacts from space weather events if no action were taken to mitigate or in the absence of adequate space weather information. The impacts of space weather are deemed to be substantially reduced because of the availability of, and the response to, space-weather forecasts and alerts. Space weather information is primarily used as aid to understand anomalies, to implement mitigating strategies designed to avoid impacts on operations, and to prepare for potential contingencies related directly or indirectly to space weather. Current and near-future space-weather conditions are generally highly valued, considered useful, and generally, though not fully, adequate to avoid or mitigate societal impacts (related most frequently to human safety and reliability of operations). We conclude that even among those receiving space weather information, there is considerable uncertainty about how to act on the information provided.

An abridged history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, Becaja; McCarron, Eoin; Jonas, Seth

2017-10-01

Public awareness of space weather and its adverse effects on critical infrastructure systems, services, and technologies (e.g., the electric grid, telecommunications, and satellites) has grown through recent media coverage and scientific research. However, federal interest and involvement in space weather dates back to the decades between World War I and World War II when the National Bureau of Standards led efforts to observe, forecast, and provide warnings of space weather events that could interfere with high-frequency radio transmissions. The efforts to observe and predict space weather continued through the 1960s during the rise of the Cold War and into the present with U.S. government efforts to prepare the nation for space weather events. This paper provides a brief overview of the history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting from World War II, through the Apollo Program, and into the present.

Tools for Understanding Space Weather Impacts to Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, J. C.; Shprits, Y.; Likar, J. J.; Kellerman, A. C.; Quinn, R. A.; Whelan, P.; Reker, N.; Huston, S. L.

2017-12-01

Space weather causes dramatic changes in the near-Earth radiation environment. Intense particle fluxes can damage electronic components on satellites, causing temporary malfunctions, degraded performance, or a complete system/mission loss. Understanding whether space weather is the cause of such problems expedites investigations and guides successful design improvements resulting in a more robust satellite architecture. Here we discuss our progress in developing tools for satellite designers, manufacturers, and decision makers - tools that summarize space weather impacts to specific satellite assets and enable confident identification of the cause and right solution.

Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

2017-12-01

Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

Satellite navigation—Amazing technology but insidious risk: Why everyone needs to understand space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapgood, Mike

2017-04-01

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are one of the technological wonders of the modern world. Popularly known as satellite navigation, these systems have provided global access to precision location and timing services and have thereby stimulated advances in industry and consumer services, including all forms of transport, telecommunications, financial trading, and even the synchronization of power grids. But this wonderful technology is at risk from natural phenomena in the form of space weather. GNSS signals experience a slight delay as they pass through the ionosphere. This delay varies with space weather conditions and is the most significant source of error for GNSS. Scientific efforts to correct these errors have stimulated billions of dollars of investment in systems that provide accurate correction data for suitably equipped GNSS receivers in a growing number of regions around the world. This accuracy is essential for GNSS use by aircraft and ships. Space weather also provides a further occasional but severe risk to GNSS: an extreme space weather event may deny access to GNSS as ionospheric scintillation scrambles the radio signals from satellites, and rapid ionospheric changes outstrip the ability of error correction systems to supply accurate corrections. It is vital that GNSS users have a backup for such occasions, even if it is only to hunker down and weather the storm.

The GOES-R Spacecraft Space Weather Instruments and Level 2+ Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loto'aniu, Paul; Rodriguez, Juan; Machol, Janet; Kress, Brian; Darnel, Jonathan; Redmon, Robert; Rowland, William; Seation, Daniel; Tilton, Margaret; Denig, William

2016-04-01

Since their inception in the 1970s, the GOES satellites have monitored the sources of space weather on the sun and the effects of space weather at Earth. The space weather instruments on GOES-R will monitor: solar X-rays, UV light, solar energetic particles, magnetospheric energetic particles, galactic cosmic rays, and Earth's magnetic field. These measurements are important for providing alerts and warnings to many customers, including satellite operators, the power utilities, and NASA's human activities in space. This presentation reviews the capabilities of the GOES-R space weather instruments and describes the space weather Level 2+ products that are being developed for GOES-R. These new and continuing data products will be an integral part of NOAA space weather operations in the GOES-R era.

Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

2018-03-01

There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events—space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections.

PubMed

Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

2018-03-01

There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events-space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

Forecasting Space Weather Hazards for Astronauts in Deep Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martens, P. C.

2018-02-01

Deep Space Gateway provides a unique platform to develop, calibrate, and test a space weather forecasting system for interplanetary travel in a real life setting. We will discuss requirements and design of such a system.

Geospace monitoring for space weather research and operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagatsuma, Tsutomu

2017-10-01

Geospace, a space surrounding the Earth, is one of the key area for space weather. Because geospace environment dynamically varies depending on the solar wind conditions. Many kinds of space assets are operating in geospace for practical purposes. Anomalies of space assets are sometimes happened because of space weather disturbances in geospace. Therefore, monitoring and forecasting of geospace environment is very important tasks for NICT's space weather research and development. To monitor and to improve forecasting model, fluxgate magnetometers and HF radars are operated by our laboratory, and its data are used for our research work, too. We also operate real-time data acquisition system for satellite data, such as DSCOVR, STEREO, and routinely received high energy particle data from Himawari-8. Based on these data, we are monitoring current condition of geomagnetic disturbances, and that of radiation belt. Using these data, we have developed empirical models for relativistic electron flux at GEO and inner magnetosphere. To provide userfriendly information , we are trying to develop individual spacecraft anomaly risk estimation tool based on combining models of space weather and those of spacecraft charging, Current status of geospace monitoring, forecasting, and research activities are introduced.

NASA's Internal Space Weather Working Group

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St. Cyr, O. C.; Guhathakurta, M.; Bell, H.; Niemeyer, L.; Allen, J.

2011-01-01

Measurements from many of NASA's scientific spacecraft are used routinely by space weather forecasters, both in the U.S. and internationally. ACE, SOHO (an ESA/NASA collaboration), STEREO, and SDO provide images and in situ measurements that are assimilated into models and cited in alerts and warnings. A number of years ago, the Space Weather laboratory was established at NASA-Goddard, along with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Within that organization, a space weather service center has begun issuing alerts for NASA's operational users. NASA's operational user community includes flight operations for human and robotic explorers; atmospheric drag concerns for low-Earth orbit; interplanetary navigation and communication; and the fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, high altitude aircraft, and launch vehicles. Over the past three years we have identified internal stakeholders within NASA and formed a Working Group to better coordinate their expertise and their needs. In this presentation we will describe this activity and some of the challenges in forming a diverse working group.

The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand?

PubMed

Eastwood, J P; Biffis, E; Hapgood, M A; Green, L; Bisi, M M; Bentley, R D; Wicks, R; McKinnell, L-A; Gibbs, M; Burnett, C

2017-02-01

Space weather describes the way in which the Sun, and conditions in space more generally, impact human activity and technology both in space and on the ground. It is now well understood that space weather represents a significant threat to infrastructure resilience, and is a source of risk that is wide-ranging in its impact and the pathways by which this impact may occur. Although space weather is growing rapidly as a field, work rigorously assessing the overall economic cost of space weather appears to be in its infancy. Here, we provide an initial literature review to gather and assess the quality of any published assessments of space weather impacts and socioeconomic studies. Generally speaking, there is a good volume of scientific peer-reviewed literature detailing the likelihood and statistics of different types of space weather phenomena. These phenomena all typically exhibit "power-law" behavior in their severity. The literature on documented impacts is not as extensive, with many case studies, but few statistical studies. The literature on the economic impacts of space weather is rather sparse and not as well developed when compared to the other sections, most probably due to the somewhat limited data that are available from end-users. The major risk is attached to power distribution systems and there is disagreement as to the severity of the technological footprint. This strongly controls the economic impact. Consequently, urgent work is required to better quantify the risk of future space weather events. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Space Weathering of Itokawa Particles: Implications for Regolith Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berger, Eve L.; Keller, Lindsay P.

2015-01-01

Space weathering processes such as solar wind irradiation and micrometeorite impacts are known to alter the the properties of regolith materials exposed on airless bodies. The rates of space weathering processes however, are poorly constrained for asteroid regoliths, with recent estimates ranging over many orders of magnitude. The return of surface samples by JAXA's Hayabusa mission to asteroid 25143 Itokawa, and their laboratory analysis provides "ground truth" to anchor the timescales for space weathering processes on airless bodies. Here, we use the effects of solar wind irradiation and the accumulation of solar flare tracks recorded in Itokawa grains to constrain the rates of space weathering and yield information about regolith dynamics on these timescales.

An introduction to Space Weather Integrated Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, D.; Feng, X.

2012-12-01

The need for a software toolkit that integrates space weather models and data is one of many challenges we are facing with when applying the models to space weather forecasting. To meet this challenge, we have developed Space Weather Integrated Modeling (SWIM) that is capable of analysis and visualizations of the results from a diverse set of space weather models. SWIM has a modular design and is written in Python, by using NumPy, matplotlib, and the Visualization ToolKit (VTK). SWIM provides data management module to read a variety of spacecraft data products and a specific data format of Solar-Interplanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element MHD model (SIP-CESE MHD model) for the study of solar-terrestrial phenomena. Data analysis, visualization and graphic user interface modules are also presented in a user-friendly way to run the integrated models and visualize the 2-D and 3-D data sets interactively. With these tools we can locally or remotely analysis the model result rapidly, such as extraction of data on specific location in time-sequence data sets, plotting interplanetary magnetic field lines, multi-slicing of solar wind speed, volume rendering of solar wind density, animation of time-sequence data sets, comparing between model result and observational data. To speed-up the analysis, an in-situ visualization interface is used to support visualizing the data 'on-the-fly'. We also modified some critical time-consuming analysis and visualization methods with the aid of GPU and multi-core CPU. We have used this tool to visualize the data of SIP-CESE MHD model in real time, and integrated the Database Model of shock arrival, Shock Propagation Model, Dst forecasting model and SIP-CESE MHD model developed by SIGMA Weather Group at State Key Laboratory of Space Weather/CAS.

Monitoring and Modeling Astronaut Occupational Radiation Exposures in Space: Recent Advances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weyland, Mark; Golightly, Michael

1999-01-01

space weather monitoring and alarm system--SPE exposure analysis system, an advanced space weather data distribution and display system, and a high-fidelity space weather simulation system. In addition, significant new real-time space weather data sets, which will enhance the forecasting and now-casting of near-Earth space environment conditions, are being made available through unique NASA-NOAA-USAF collaborations. These new data sets include coronal mass ejection monitoring by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and in-situ plasma and particle monitoring at the L1 libration point by the Solar Wind Monitor (SWIM) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Advanced real-time radiation monitoring data from charged particle telescopes and tissue equivalent proportional counters will also be available to assist crew and flight controllers in monitoring the external and intravehicular radiation environment.

Linking Space Weather Science and Decision Making (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, G. M.

2009-12-01

Linking scientific knowledge to decision making is a challenge for both the science and policy communities. In particular, in the field of space weather, there are unique challenges such as decision makers may not know that space has weather that poses risks to our technologically-dependent economy. Additionally, in an era of limited funds for scientific research, hazards posed by other natural disasters such as flooding and earthquakes are by contrast well known to policy makers, further making the importance of space weather research and monitoring a tough sell. Today, with industries and individuals more dependent on the Global Positioning System, wireless technology, and satellites than ever before, any disruption or inaccuracy can result in severe economic impacts. Therefore, it is highly important to understand how space weather science can most benefit society. The key to connecting research to decision making is to ensure that the information is salient, credible, and legitimate. To achieve this, scientists need to understand the decision makers' perspectives, including their language and culture, and recognize that their needs may evolve. This presentation will take a closer look at the steps required to make space weather research, models, and forecasts useful to decision makers and ultimately, benefit society.

How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falconer, David; Khazanov, Igor; Barghouty, Nasser

2013-01-01

Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

Space Weather Monitoring with GOES-16: Instruments and Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loto'aniu, Paul; Rodriguez, Juan; Redmon, Robert; Machol, Janet; Kress, Brian; Seaton, Daniel; Darnel, Jonathan; Rowland, William; Tilton, Margaret; Denig, William; Boudouridis, Athanasios; Codrescu, Stefan; Claycomb, Abram

2017-04-01

Since their inception in the 1970s, the NOAA GOES satellites have monitored the sources of space weather on the sun and the effects of space weather at Earth. The GOES-16 spacecraft, the first of four satellites as part of the GOES-R spacecraft series mission, was launched in November 2016. The space weather instruments on GOES-16 have significantly improved capabilities over older GOES instruments. They will image the sun's atmosphere in extreme-ultraviolet and monitor solar irradiance in X-rays and UV, solar energetic particles, magnetospheric energetic particles, galactic cosmic rays, and the Earth's magnetic field. These measurements are important for providing alerts and warnings to many worldwide customers, including the NOAA National Weather Service, satellite operators, the power utilities, and NASA's human activities in space. This presentation reviews the capabilities of the GOES-16 space weather instruments and presents initial post launch data along with a discussion of calibration activities and the current status of the instruments. We also describe the space weather Level 2+ products that are being developed for the GOES-R series including solar thematic maps, automated magnetopause crossing detection and spacecraft charging estimates. These new and continuing data products will be an integral part of NOAA space weather operations in the GOES-R era.

Space Weathering Impact on Solar System Surfaces and Planetary Mission Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, John F.

2011-01-01

We often look "through a glass, darkly" at solar system bodies with tenuous atmospheres and direct surface exposure to the local space environment. Space weathering exposure acts via universal space-surface interaction processes to produce a thin patina of outer material covering, potentially obscuring endogenic surface materials of greatest interest for understanding origins and interior evolution. Examples of obscuring exogenic layers are radiation crusts on cometary nuclei and iogenic components of sulfate hydrate deposits on the trailing hemisphere of Europa. Weathering processes include plasma ion implantation into surfaces, sputtering by charged particles and solar ultraviolet photons, photolytic chemistry driven by UV irradiation, and radiolytic chemistry evolving from products of charged particle irradiation. Regolith structure from impacts, and underlying deeper structures from internal evolution, affects efficacy of certain surface interactions, e.g. sputtering as affected by porosity and surface irradiation dosage as partly attenuated by local topographic shielding. These processes should be regarded for mission science planning as potentially enabling, e.g. since direct surface sputtering, and resultant surface-bound exospheres, can provide in-situ samples of surface composition to ion and neutral mass spectrometers on orbital spacecraft. Sample return for highest sensitivity compOSitional and structural analyses at Earth will usually be precluded by limited range of surface sampling, long times for return, and high cost. Targeted advancements in instrument technology would be more cost efficient for local remote and in-situ sample analysis. More realistic laboratory simulations, e.g. for bulk samples, are needed to interpret mission science observations of weathered surfaces. Space environment effects on mission spacecraft and science operations must also be specified and mitigated from the hourly to monthly changes in space weather and from longer

A coronagraph for operational space weather predication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, Kevin F.

2017-09-01

Accurate prediction of the arrival of solar wind phenomena, in particular coronal mass ejections (CMEs), at Earth, and possibly elsewhere in the heliosphere, is becoming increasingly important given our ever-increasing reliance on technology. The potentially severe impact on human technological systems of such phenomena is termed space weather. A coronagraph is arguably the instrument that provides the earliest definitive evidence of CME eruption; from a vantage point on or near the Sun-Earth line, a coronagraph can provide near-definitive identification of an Earth-bound CME. Currently, prediction of CME arrival is critically dependent on ageing science coronagraphs whose design and operation were not optimized for space weather services. We describe the early stages of the conceptual design of SCOPE (the Solar Coronagraph for OPErations), optimized to support operational space weather services.

Vodcasting Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins Petersen, Carolyn; Erickson, P. J.; Needles, M.

2009-01-01

The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of vodcasts (video podcasts) produced by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, MA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, MA). This paper discusses the production and distribution of the series via Webcast, Youtube, and other avenues. It also presents preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness and outreach of the project through feedback from both formal and information education venues. The vodcast series is linked to the NASA Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology project award "Multi-Instrument Investigation of Inner-Magnetospheric/Ionosphere Disturbances.” It is being carried out by Principal Investigator Dr. John Foster, under the auspices of NASA Grant # NNX06AB86G. The research involves using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) observations to study the location, extent, and duration of perturbations within stormtime ionospheric electric fields at mid- to low latitudes. It combines ground-based global positioning system (GPS) TEC data, incoherent scatter radar measurements of the mid-latitude ionospheric state, and DMSP satellite observations to characterize conditions which lead to severe low-latitude ionospheric perturbations. Each vodcast episode covers a certain aspect of space weather and the research program.

White House and agencies focus on space weather concerns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2012-06-01

"Space weather is a serious matter that can affect human economies around the world," Tamara Dickinson, a senior policy analyst with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), told attendees at the 2012 Space Weather Enterprise Forum, held 5 June in Washington, D. C. With the 2013 solar maximum nearing, researchers and government agencies are focusing on how the greater solar activity could affect our increasingly technological society and what measures can be taken to help prevent or mitigate any threats to the electricity grid, GPS, and other potentially vulnerable technologies. Dickenson said that there has been an increased awareness about space weather in the White House and that President Barack Obama recently has requested briefing memos on the topic. She highlighted several efforts the administration is taking related to space weather, including a forthcoming national Earth observation strategy, which could be released in July and will include an assessment of space weather. She explained that the strategy document will be part of the fiscal year 2014 presidential budget request and that it will be updated every 3 years.

New Space Weather Systems Under Development and Their Contribution to Space Weather Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Bouwer, D.; Schunk, R.; Garrett, H.; Mertens, C.; Bowman, B.

2008-12-01

There have been notable successes during the past decade in the development of operational space environment systems. Examples include the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) of the Earth's magnetosphere, 2000; SOLAR2000 (S2K) solar spectral irradiances, 2001; High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) neutral atmosphere densities, 2004; Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ionosphere specification, 2006; Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind parameters, 2007; Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS) ionosphere, high frequency radio, and scintillation S4 index prediction, 2008; and GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS) geosynchronous environment satellite charging specification and forecast, 2008. Operational systems that are in active operational implementation include the Jacchia-Bowman 2006/2008 (JB2006/2008) neutral atmosphere, 2009, and the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) aviation radiation model using the Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), 2010. U.S. national agency and commercial assets will soon reach a state where specification and prediction will become ubiquitous and where coordinated management of the space environment and space weather will become a necessity. We describe the status of the CAPS, GAPS, RAPS, and JB2008 operational development. We additionally discuss the conditions that are laying the groundwork for space weather management and estimate the unfilled needs as we move beyond specification and prediction efforts.

Plasma Physics of the Subauroral Space Weather

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-20

AFRL-RV-PS- AFRL-RV-PS- TR-2016-0068 TR-2016-0068 PLASMA PHYSICS OF THE SUBAURORAL SPACE WEATHER Evgeny V. Mishin, et al. 20 March 2016 Final...Oct 2013 to 30 Sep 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Plasma Physics of the Subauroral Space Weather 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...5 4.3. Physics -based hybrid model with finite Larmor radius effects

Space Weather Products and Tools Used in Auroral Monitoring and Forecasting at CCMC/SWRC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz

2015-01-01

Key points discussed in this chapter are (1) the importance of aurora research to scientific advances and space weather applications, (2) space weather products at CCMC that are relevant to aurora monitoring and forecasting, and (3) the need for more effort from the whole community to achieve a better and long-lead-time forecast of auroral activity. Aurora, as manifestations of solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling that occurs in a region of space that is relatively easy to access for sounding rockets, satellites, and other types of observational platforms, serves as a natural laboratory for studying the underlying physics of the complex system. From a space weather application perspective, auroras can cause surface charging of technological assets passing through the region, result in scintillation effects affecting communication and navigation, and cause radar cluttering that hinders military and civilian applications. Indirectly, an aurora and its currents can induce geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) on the ground, which poses major concerns for the wellbeing and operation of power grids, particularly during periods of intense geomagnetic activity. In addition, accurate auroral forecasting is desired for auroral tourism. In this chapter, we first review some of the existing auroral models and discuss past validation efforts. Such efforts are crucial in transitioning a model(s) from research to operations and for further model improvement and development that also benefits scientific endeavors. Then we will focus on products and tools that are used for auroral monitoring and forecasting at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). As part of the CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center), SWRC has been providing space weather services since 2010.

Updates on CCMC Activities and GSFC Space Weather Services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhengm Y.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Maddox, M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.;

Partnerships form the basis for implementing a National Space Weather Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spann, James F.; Giles, Barbara L.

2017-08-01

The 2017 Space Weather Enterprise Forum, held June 27, focused on the vital role of partnerships in order to establish an effective and successful national space weather program. Experts and users from the many government agencies, industry, academia, and policy makers gathered to discuss space weather impacts and mitigation strategies, the relevant services and supporting infrastructure, and the vital role cross-cutting partnerships must play for successful implementation of the National Space Weather Action Plan.

Interplanetary CubeSats system for space weather evaluations and technology demonstration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viscio, Maria Antonietta; Viola, Nicole; Corpino, Sabrina; Stesina, Fabrizio; Fineschi, Silvano; Fumenti, Federico; Circi, Christian

2014-11-01

The paper deals with the mission analysis and conceptual design of an interplanetary 6U CubeSats system to be implemented in the L1 Earth-Sun Lagrangian Point mission for solar observation and in-situ space weather measurements. Interplanetary CubeSats could be an interesting alternative to big missions, to fulfill both scientific and technological tasks in deep space, as proved by the growing interest in this kind of application in the scientific community and most of all at NASA. Such systems allow less costly missions, due to their reduced sizes and volumes, and consequently less demanding launches requirements. The CubeSats mission presented in this paper is aimed at supporting measurements of space weather. The mission envisages the deployment of a 6U CubeSats system in the L1 Earth-Sun Lagrangian Point, where solar observations for in situ measurements of space weather to provide additional warning time to Earth can be carried out. The proposed mission is also intended as a technology validation mission, giving the chance to test advanced technologies, such as telecommunications and solar sails, envisaged as propulsion system. Furthermore, traveling outside the Van Allen belts, the 6U CubeSats system gives the opportunity to further investigate the space radiation environment: radiation dosimeters and advanced materials are envisaged to be implemented, in order to test their response to the harsh space environment, even in view of future implementation on other spacecrafts (e.g. manned spacecrafts). The main issue related to CubeSats is how to fit big science within a small package - namely power, mass, volume, and data limitations. One of the objectives of the work is therefore to identify and size the required subsystems and equipment, needed to accomplish specific mission objectives, and to investigate the most suitable configuration, in order to be compatible with the typical CubeSats (multi units) standards. The work has been developed as collaboration

Extreme Space Weather Events: From Cradle to Grave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Pete; Baker, Dan; Liu, Ying D.; Verronen, Pekka; Singer, Howard; Güdel, Manuel

2018-02-01

Extreme space weather events, while rare, can have a substantial impact on our technologically-dependent society. And, although such events have only occasionally been observed, through careful analysis of a wealth of space-based and ground-based observations, historical records, and extrapolations from more moderate events, we have developed a basic picture of the components required to produce them. Several key issues, however, remain unresolved. For example, what limits are imposed on the maximum size of such events? What are the likely societal consequences of a so-called "100-year" solar storm? In this review, we summarize our current scientific understanding about extreme space weather events as we follow several examples from the Sun, through the solar corona and inner heliosphere, across the magnetospheric boundary, into the ionosphere and atmosphere, into the Earth's lithosphere, and, finally, its impact on man-made structures and activities, such as spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. We describe preliminary attempts to provide probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena, and we conclude by identifying several key areas that must be addressed if we are better able to understand, and, ultimately, predict extreme space weather events.

Ensemble flare forecasting: using numerical weather prediction techniques to improve space weather operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, S.; Guerra, J. A.

2017-12-01

One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. Early flare forecasting work focused on statistical methods based on historical flaring rates, but more complex machine learning methods have been developed in recent years. A multitude of flare forecasting methods are now available, however it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are substantially better than climatological forecasts. Current operational space weather centres cannot rely on automated methods, and generally use statistical forecasts with a little human intervention. Space weather researchers are increasingly looking towards methods used in terrestrial weather to improve current forecasting techniques. Ensemble forecasting has been used in numerical weather prediction for many years as a way to combine different predictions in order to obtain a more accurate result. It has proved useful in areas such as magnetospheric modelling and coronal mass ejection arrival analysis, however has not yet been implemented in operational flare forecasting. Here we construct ensemble forecasts for major solar flares by linearly combining the full-disk probabilistic forecasts from a group of operational forecasting methods (ASSA, ASAP, MAG4, MOSWOC, NOAA, and Solar Monitor). Forecasts from each method are weighted by a factor that accounts for the method's ability to predict previous events, and several performance metrics (both probabilistic and categorical) are considered. The results provide space weather forecasters with a set of parameters (combination weights, thresholds) that allow them to select the most appropriate values for constructing the 'best' ensemble forecast probability value, according to the performance metric of their choice. In this way different forecasts can be made to fit different end-user needs.

NOAA Environmental Satellite Measurements of Extreme Space Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denig, W. F.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Redmon, R. J.

2015-12-01

For over 40 years the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has continuously monitored the near-earth space environment in support of space weather operations. Data from this period have covered a wide range of geophysical conditions including periods of extreme space weather such as the great geomagnetic March 1989, the 2003 Halloween storm and the more recent St Patrick's Day storm of 2015. While not specifically addressed here, these storms have stressed our technology infrastructure in unexpected and surprising ways. Space weather data from NOAA geostationary (GOES) and polar (POES) satellites along with supporting data from the Air Force are presented to compare and contrast the space environmental conditions measured during extreme events.

GOES-16 Space Weather Data Availability and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilton, M.; Rowland, W. F.; Codrescu, S.; Seaton, D. B.; Redmon, R. J.; Hsu, V.

2017-12-01

In November 2016, NOAA launched the first in the "R" series of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, GOES-16. Compared to its GOES predecessors, the GOES-R series satellites provide improved in situ measurements of charged particles, higher cadence magnetic field measurements, and enhanced remote sensing of the sun through ultraviolet (UV) imagery and X-ray/UV irradiance. GOES-16 space weather instruments will nominally reach provisional status near the beginning of 2018. After this milestone has been achieved, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) will provide archive access to GOES-16 space weather data. This presentation will describe the status of the space weather instruments, including available products and their applicability for forecasters, modelers, academics, spacecraft operators, and other users. It will discuss the available access systems for all levels of data-raw telemetry (Level 0), science measurements in high resolution (L1b), and higher-level (L2+) products developed by NCEI scientists. Finally, it will cover NCEI's efforts to promote space weather awareness through data visualization tools and image dissemination via the Helioviewer project.

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office and potential ways forward for operational space weather prediction systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, David

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability.

PubMed

Jonas, Seth; Fronczyk, Kassandra; Pratt, Lucas M

2018-03-12

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well-being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Future Missions for Space Weather Specifications and Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onsager, T. G.; Biesecker, D. A.; Anthes, R. A.; Maier, M. W.; Gallagher, F. W., III; St Germain, K.

2017-12-01

The progress of technology and the global integration of our economic and security infrastructures have introduced vulnerabilities to space weather that demand a more comprehensive ability to specify and to predict the dynamics of the space environment. This requires a comprehensive network of real-time space-based and ground-based observations with long-term continuity. In order to determine the most cost effective space architectures for NOAA's weather, space weather, and environmental missions, NOAA conducted the NOAA Satellite Observing System Architecture (NSOSA) study. This presentation will summarize the process used to document the future needs and the relative priorities for NOAA's operational space-based observations. This involves specifying the most important observations, defining the performance attributes at different levels of capability, and assigning priorities for achieving the higher capability levels. The highest priority observations recommended by the Space Platform Requirements Working Group (SPRWG) for improvement above a minimal capability level will be described. Finally, numerous possible satellite architectures have been explored to assess the costs and benefits of various architecture configurations.

Space Weather Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hesse, M.; Falasca, A.; Johnson, J.; Keller, K.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastaetter, L.

2003-04-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership aimed at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. We will demonstrate the capabilities of models resident at CCMC via the analysis of a geomagnetic storm, driven by a shock in the solar wind.

Space Weather Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse M.

2005-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires dose collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Integration of Space Weather Forecasts into Space Protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeves, G.

2012-09-01

How would the US respond to a clandestine attack that disabled one of our satellites? How would we know that it was an attack, not a natural failure? The goal of space weather programs as applied to space protection are simple: Provide a rapid and reliable assessment of the probability that satellite or system failure was caused by the space environment. Achieving that goal is not as simple. However, great strides are being made on a number of fronts. We will report on recent successes in providing rapid, automated anomaly/attack assessment for the penetrating radiation environment in the Earth's radiation belts. We have previously reported on the Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) that was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess hazards posed by the natural and by nuclear radiation belts. This year we will report on recent developments that are moving this program from the research, test, and evaluation phases to real-time implementation and application. We will discuss the challenges of leveraging space environment data sets for applications that are beyond the scope of mission requirements, the challenges of moving data from where they exist to where they are needed, the challenges of turning data into actionable information, and how those challenges were overcome. We will discuss the state-of-the-art as it exists in 2012 including the new capabilities that have been enabled and the limitations that still exist. We will also discuss how currently untapped data resources could advance the state-of-the-art and the future steps for implementing automatic real-time anomaly forensics.

GOES-R Space Weather Data: Ensuring Access and Usability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilton, M.; Rowland, W. F.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Denig, W. F.; Darnel, J.; Kress, B. T.; Loto'aniu, P. T. M.; Machol, J. L.; Redmon, R. J.; Rodriguez, J. V.

2015-12-01

The upcoming Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite series, GOES-R, will provide critical space weather data. These data are used to prevent communication outages, mitigate the damage solar weather causes to satellites and power grids, and reduce astronaut radiation exposure. The space weather instruments aboard GOES-R will deliver an operational dataset of unprecedented breadth. However, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)—the organization that provides access to archived GOES-R data—has faced several challenges in delivering this information to customers in usable form. For instance, the GOES-R ground system was contracted to develop higher-level products for terrestrial data but not space weather data. Variations in GOES-R data file formats and archive locations have also threatened to create an inconsistent user experience. This presentation will examine the ways in which NCEI is making GOES-R space weather data more accessible and actionable for customers. These efforts include NCEI's development of high-level data products to meet the requirements of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center—a role NCEI has not previously played. In addition, NCEI is creating a demonstration system to show how these products can be produced in real-time. The organization is also examining customer usage of the GOES-NOP data access system and using these access patterns to drive decisions about the GOES-R user interface.

The effort to increase the space weather forecasting accuracy in KSWC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J. S.

2017-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition as the Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. Recently, KSWC are focusing on increasing the accuracy of space weather forecasting results and verifying the model generated results. The forecasting accuracy will be calculated based on the probability statistical estimation so that the results can be compared numerically. Regarding the cosmic radiation does, we are gathering the actual measured data of radiation does using the instrument by cooperation with the domestic airlines. Based on the measurement, we are going to verify the reliability of SAFE system which was developed by KSWC to provide the cosmic radiation does information with the airplane cabin crew and public users.

Operational Space Weather Needs - Perspectives from SEASONS 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comberiate, J.; Kelly, M. A.; Paxton, L. J.; Schaefer, R. K.; Bust, G. S.; Sotirelis, T.; Fox, N. J.

2014-12-01

A key challenge for the operational space weather community is the gap between the latest scientific data, models, methods, and indices and those that are currently used in operational systems. The November 2014 SEASONS (Space Environment Applications, Systems, and Operations for National Security) Workshop at JHU/APL in Laurel, Maryland, brings together representatives from the operational and scientific communities. The theme of SEASONS 2014 is "Beyond Climatology," with a focus on how space weather events threaten operational assets and disrupt missions. Here we present perspectives from SEASONS 2014 on new observations, models in development, and forecasting methods that are of interest to the operational space weather community. Highlighted topics include ionospheric data assimilation and forecasting models, HF propagation models, radiation belt observations, and energetic particle modeling. The SEASONS 2014 web site can be found at https://secwww.jhuapl.edu/SEASONS/

Briefing highlights space weather risks to GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tretkoff, Ernie

2011-07-01

Solar storms, which are expected to increase as the Sun nears the most active phase of the solar cycle, can disrupt a variety of technologies on which society relies. Speakers at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C., focused on how space weather can affect the Global Positioning System (GPS), which is used in a wide range of industries, including commercial air travel, agriculture, national security, and emergency response. Rocky Stone, chief technical pilot for United Airlines, noted that GPS allows more aircraft to be in airspace, saves fuel, and helps aircraft move safely on runways. “Improvements in space weather forecasting need to be pursued,” he said. Precision GPS has also “changed the whole nature of farming,” said Ron Hatch, Director of Navigation Systems, NavCom Technology/John Deere. GPS makes it possible for tractors to be driven in the most efficient paths and for fertilizer and water to be applied precisely to the areas that most need them. Space weather-induced degradation of GPS signals can cause significant loss to farms that rely on GPS. Elizabeth Zimmerman, Deputy Associate Administrator for the Office of Response and Recovery at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), described how FEMA relies on GPS for disaster recovery. The agency is developing an operations plan for dealing with space weather, she said.

Characteristics of Operational Space Weather Forecasting: Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Thomas; Viereck, Rodney; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terry; Biesecker, Doug; Rutledge, Robert; Hill, Steven; Akmaev, Rashid; Milward, George; Fuller-Rowell, Tim

2015-04-01

In contrast to research observations, models and ground support systems, operational systems are characterized by real-time data streams and run schedules, with redundant backup systems for most elements of the system. We review the characteristics of operational space weather forecasting, concentrating on the key aspects of ground- and space-based observations that feed models of the coupled Sun-Earth system at the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Building on the infrastructure of the National Weather Service, SWPC is working toward a fully operational system based on the GOES weather satellite system (constant real-time operation with back-up satellites), the newly launched DSCOVR satellite at L1 (constant real-time data network with AFSCN backup), and operational models of the heliosphere, magnetosphere, and ionosphere/thermosphere/mesophere systems run on the Weather and Climate Operational Super-computing System (WCOSS), one of the worlds largest and fastest operational computer systems that will be upgraded to a dual 2.5 Pflop system in 2016. We review plans for further operational space weather observing platforms being developed in the context of the Space Weather Operations Research and Mitigation (SWORM) task force in the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) at the White House. We also review the current operational model developments at SWPC, concentrating on the differences between the research codes and the modified real-time versions that must run with zero fault tolerance on the WCOSS systems. Understanding the characteristics and needs of the operational forecasting community is key to producing research into the coupled Sun-Earth system with maximal societal benefit.

Mahali: Space Weather Monitoring Using Multicore Mobile Devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankratius, V.; Lind, F. D.; Coster, A. J.; Erickson, P. J.; Semeter, J. L.

2013-12-01

Analysis of Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) signals has led to revolutionary new data products for space weather monitoring and ionospheric research. However, the current sensor network is sparse, especially over the oceans and in regions like Africa and Siberia, and the full potential of dense, global, real-time TEC monitoring remains to be realized. The Mahali project will prototype a revolutionary architecture that uses mobile devices, such as phones and tablets, to form a global space weather monitoring network. Mahali exploits the existing GPS infrastructure - more specifically, delays in multi-frequency GPS signals observed at the ground - to acquire a vast set of global TEC projections, with the goal of imaging multi-scale variability in the global ionosphere at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. With connectivity available worldwide, mobile devices are excellent candidates to establish crowd sourced global relays that feed multi-frequency GPS sensor data into a cloud processing environment. Once the data is within the cloud, it is relatively straightforward to reconstruct the structure of the space environment, and its dynamic changes. This vision is made possible owing to advances in multicore technology that have transformed mobile devices into parallel computers with several processors on a chip. For example, local data can be pre-processed, validated with other sensors nearby, and aggregated when transmission is temporarily unavailable. Intelligent devices can also autonomously decide the most practical way of transmitting data with in any given context, e.g., over cell networks or Wifi, depending on availability, bandwidth, cost, energy usage, and other constraints. In the long run, Mahali facilitates data collection from remote locations such as deserts or on oceans. For example, mobile devices on ships could collect time-tagged measurements that are transmitted at a later point in

Geodetic Space Weather Monitoring by means of Ionosphere Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Michael

2017-04-01

The term space weather indicates physical processes and phenomena in space caused by radiation of energy mainly from the Sun. Manifestations of space weather are (1) variations of the Earth's magnetic field, (2) the polar lights in the northern and southern hemisphere, (3) variations within the ionosphere as part of the upper atmosphere characterized by the existence of free electrons and ions, (4) the solar wind, i.e. the permanent emission of electrons and photons, (5) the interplanetary magnetic field, and (6) electric currents, e.g. the van Allen radiation belt. It can be stated that ionosphere disturbances are often caused by so-called solar storms. A solar storm comprises solar events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which have different effects on the Earth. Solar flares may cause disturbances in positioning, navigation and communication. CMEs can effect severe disturbances and in extreme cases damages or even destructions of modern infrastructure. Examples are interruptions to satellite services including the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), communication systems, Earth observation and imaging systems or a potential failure of power networks. Currently the measurements of solar satellite missions such as STEREO and SOHO are used to forecast solar events. Besides these measurements the Earth's ionosphere plays another key role in monitoring the space weather, because it responses to solar storms with an increase of the electron density. Space-geodetic observation techniques, such as terrestrial GNSS, satellite altimetry, space-borne GPS (radio occultation), DORIS and VLBI provide valuable global information about the state of the ionosphere. Additionally geodesy has a long history and large experience in developing and using sophisticated analysis and combination techniques as well as empirical and physical modelling approaches. Consequently, geodesy is predestinated for strongly supporting space weather monitoring via

Space Weather Drivers in the ACE Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, M.; Puhl-Quinn, P.; Jordanova, V. K.; Smith, C. W.; Cohen, C. M.

2004-12-01

The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft was launched Aug.~25, 1997 [Stone et al., 1998]. Beginning shortly after launch and continuing to the present day ACE has provided real-time data telemetry of solar wind conditions upstream of the Earth. The real-time data includes solar wind speed and density, magnetic field direction and magnitude, and a range of energetic particle intensities [Zwickl et al., 1999]. The real-time data product is provided within 5 minutes of observation and many partners from both industry and science use these data for a variety of purposes. The most common purpose of practical industrial application involves mitigation of lost services arising from magnetospheric storm activity. Many space weather efforts are directed at providing improved predictions of magnetospheric response that can be applied to real-time data in the hope of better predicting the vulnerability and required action of industry to approaching disturbances. It therefore seems prudent that following 6 years of activity including one solar maximum period we should evaluate the nature and strength of the largest disturbances observed with the hope of better assessing the industrial response. Simply put: ``Did ACE observe disturbances that were as large as those seen previously during the space age?'' If not, it may be the case that industry must evaluate its response to the real-time warnings and not become complacent by the simple act of survival. We compare the most intense space weather events of the ACE era with those recorded on the Omnitape data set spanning 40+ years of spacecraft measurements in the near-Earth environment. We compare both magnetospheric response parameters and solar wind drivers. In addition, we compare the large energetic particle events over the same time frame. Stone, E.~C., et al., Space Science Rev., 86(1-4), 357-408, 1998. Zwickl, R.~D., et al., Space Science Rev., 86(1-4), 633-648, 1998.

Forecasting Space Weather-Induced GPS Performance Degradation Using Random Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filjar, R.; Filic, M.; Milinkovic, F.

2017-12-01

Space weather and ionospheric dynamics have a profound effect on positioning performance of the Global Satellite Navigation System (GNSS). However, the quantification of that effect is still the subject of scientific activities around the world. In the latest contribution to the understanding of the space weather and ionospheric effects on satellite-based positioning performance, we conducted a study of several candidates for forecasting method for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. First, a 5-days set of experimentally collected data was established, encompassing the space weather and ionospheric activity indices (including: the readings of the Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) monitors, components of geomagnetic field strength, global Kp index, Dst index, GPS-derived Total Electron Content (TEC) samples, standard deviation of TEC samples, and sunspot number) and observations of GPS positioning error components (northing, easting, and height positioning error) derived from the Adriatic Sea IGS reference stations' RINEX raw pseudorange files in quiet space weather periods. This data set was split into the training and test sub-sets. Then, a selected set of supervised machine learning methods based on Random Forest was applied to the experimentally collected data set in order to establish the appropriate regional (the Adriatic Sea) forecasting models for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. The forecasting models were developed in the R/rattle statistical programming environment. The forecasting quality of the regional forecasting models developed was assessed, and the conclusions drawn on the advantages and shortcomings of the regional forecasting models for space weather-caused GNSS positioning performance deterioration.

Maintaining US Space Weather Capabilities after DMSP: Research to Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machuzak, J. S.; Gentile, L. C.; Burke, W. J.; Holeman, E. G.; Ober, D. M.; Wilson, G. R.

2012-12-01

The first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft was launched in 1972; the last is scheduled to fly in 2020. Presently, there is no replacement for the space-weather monitoring sensors that now fly on DMSP. The present suite has provided comprehensive, long-term records that constitute a critical component of the US space weather corporate memory. Evolving operational needs and research accomplishments justify continued collection of space environmental data. Examples include measurements to: (1) Monitor the Dst index in real time as a driver of next-generation satellite drag models; (2) Quantify electromagnetic energy fluxes from deep space to the ionosphere/ thermosphere that heat neutrals, drive disturbance-dynamo winds and degrade precise orbit determinations; (3) Determine strengths of stormtime electric fields at high and low latitudes that lead to severe blackouts and spacecraft anomalies; (4) Specify variability of plasma density irregularities, equatorial plasma bubbles, and the Appleton anomaly to improve reliability of communication, navigation and surveillance links; (5) Characterize energetic particle fluxes responsible for auroral clutter and radar degradation; (6) Map regions of L-Band scintillation for robust GPS applications; and (7) Update the World Magnetic Field Model needed to maintain guidance system superiority. These examples illustrate the utility of continued space environment awareness. Comprehensive assessments of both operational requirements and research advances are needed to make informed selections of sensors and spacecraft that support future capabilities. A proposed sensor set and satellite constellation to provide the needed measurement capabilities will be presented.

The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eastwood, J. P.; Nakamura, R.; Turc, L.; Mejnertsen, L.; Hesse, M.

2017-11-01

The magnetosphere is the lens through which solar space weather phenomena are focused and directed towards the Earth. In particular, the non-linear interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field leads to the formation of highly inhomogenous electrical currents in the ionosphere which can ultimately result in damage to and problems with the operation of power distribution networks. Since electric power is the fundamental cornerstone of modern life, the interruption of power is the primary pathway by which space weather has impact on human activity and technology. Consequently, in the context of space weather, it is the ability to predict geomagnetic activity that is of key importance. This is usually stated in terms of geomagnetic storms, but we argue that in fact it is the substorm phenomenon which contains the crucial physics, and therefore prediction of substorm occurrence, severity and duration, either within the context of a longer-lasting geomagnetic storm, but potentially also as an isolated event, is of critical importance. Here we review the physics of the magnetosphere in the frame of space weather forecasting, focusing on recent results, current understanding, and an assessment of probable future developments.

Space Weathering on Icy Satellites in the Outer Solar System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, R. N.; Perlman, Z.; Pearson, N.; Cruikshank, D. P.

2014-01-01

Space weathering produces well-known optical effects in silicate minerals in the inner Solar System, for example, on the Moon. Space weathering from solar wind and UV (ultraviolet radiation) is expected to be significantly weaker in the outer Solar System simply because intensities are low. However, cosmic rays and micrometeoroid bombardment would be similar to first order. That, combined with the much higher volatility of icy surfaces means there is the potential for space weathering on icy outer Solar System surfaces to show optical effects. The Cassini spacecraft orbiting Saturn is providing evidence for space weathering on icy bodies. The Cassini Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) instrument has spatially mapped satellite surfaces and the rings from 0.35-5 microns and the Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) instrument from 0.1 to 0.2 microns. These data have sampled a complex mixing space between H2O ice and non-ice components and they show some common spectral properties. Similarly, spectra of the icy Galilean satellites and satellites in the Uranian system have some commonality in spectral properties with those in the Saturn system. The UV absorber is spectrally similar on many surfaces. VIMS has identified CO2, H2 and trace organics in varying abundances on Saturn's satellites. We postulate that through the spatial relationships of some of these compounds that they are created and destroyed through space weathering effects. For example, the trapped H2 and CO2 observed by VIMS in regions with high concentrations of dark material may in part be space weathering products from the destruction of H2O and organic molecules. The dark material, particularly on Iapetus which has the highest concentration in the Saturn system, is well matched by space-weathered silicates in the .4 to 2.6 micron range, and the spectral shapes closely match those of the most mature lunar soils, another indicator of space weathered material.

The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations.

PubMed

Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

2014-04-01

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assetsCurrent assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic stormsNear-future assets will not improve the situation.

A framework of space weather satellite data pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Fuli; Zou, Ziming

Various applications indicate a need of permanent space weather information. The diversity of available instruments enables a big variety of products. As an indispensable part of space weather satellite operation system, space weather data processing system is more complicated than before. The information handled by the data processing system has been used in more and more fields such as space weather monitoring and space weather prediction models. In the past few years, many satellites have been launched by China. The data volume downlinked by these satellites has achieved the so-called big data level and it will continue to grow fast in the next few years due to the implementation of many new space weather programs. Because of the huge amount of data, the current infrastructure is no longer incapable of processing data timely, so we proposed a new space weather data processing system (SWDPS) based on the architecture of cloud computing. Similar to Hadoop, SWDPS decomposes the tasks into smaller tasks which will be executed by many different work nodes. Control Center in SWDPS, just like NameNode and JobTracker within Hadoop which is the bond between the data and the cluster, will establish work plan for the cluster once a client submits data. Control Center will allocate node for the tasks and the monitor the status of all tasks. As the same of TaskTrakcer, Compute Nodes in SWDPS are the salves of Control Center which are responsible for calling the plugins(e.g., dividing and sorting plugins) to execute the concrete jobs. They will also manage all the tasks’ status and report them to Control Center. Once a task fails, a Compute Node will notify Control Center. Control Center decides what to do then; it may resubmit the job elsewhere, it may mark that specific record as something to avoid, and it may even blacklist the Compute Node as unreliable. In addition to these modules, SWDPS has a different module named Data Service which is used to provide file

Regimes for the ocean, outer space, and weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, S.; Cornell, N. W.; Fabian, L. L.; Weiss, E. B.

1977-01-01

The allocation of resources among users of the oceans, outer space and the weather is discussed. Attention is given to the international management of maritime navigation, the control of fisheries, offshore oil and gas exploitation, mineral exploitation in the deep seabed (especially the mining of manganese nodules), and the regulation of oceanographic studies. The management of outer space is considered, with special reference to remote sensing by satellites, television broadcasting, the technical requirements of maritime satellites, and problems associated with satellite frequency and orbit allocation. Rainmaking and typhoon modification, as well as the distribution of weather modification capabilities in the world, are also mentioned. The United Nations, international agencies and tribunals, and multi- or bilateral agreements are some of the implements suggested for use in the regulation of the oceans, outer space and the weather.

The STEREO Mission: A New Approach to Space Weather Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaiser, michael L.

2006-01-01

With the launch of the twin STEREO spacecraft in July 2006, a new capability will exist for both real-time space weather predictions and for advances in space weather research. Whereas previous spacecraft monitors of the sun such as ACE and SOH0 have been essentially on the sun-Earth line, the STEREO spacecraft will be in 1 AU orbits around the sun on either side of Earth and will be viewing the solar activity from distinctly different vantage points. As seen from the sun, the two spacecraft will separate at a rate of 45 degrees per year, with Earth bisecting the angle. The instrument complement on the two spacecraft will consist of a package of optical instruments capable of imaging the sun in the visible and ultraviolet from essentially the surface to 1 AU and beyond, a radio burst receiver capable of tracking solar eruptive events from an altitude of 2-3 Rs to 1 AU, and a comprehensive set of fields and particles instruments capable of measuring in situ solar events such as interplanetary magnetic clouds. In addition to normal daily recorded data transmissions, each spacecraft is equipped with a real-time beacon that will provide 1 to 5 minute snapshots or averages of the data from the various instruments. This beacon data will be received by NOAA and NASA tracking stations and then relayed to the STEREO Science Center located at Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland where the data will be processed and made available within a goal of 5 minutes of receipt on the ground. With STEREO's instrumentation and unique view geometry, we believe considerable improvement can be made in space weather prediction capability as well as improved understanding of the three dimensional structure of solar transient events.

Space Weather Modeling Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, Michael

2006-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the Rapid Prototyping Centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide a description of the current CCMC status, discuss current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and describe the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Optimized Strategies for Detecting Extrasolar Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallinan, Gregg

2018-06-01

Fully understanding the implications of space weather for the young solar system, as well as the wider population of planet-hosting stars, requires remote sensing of space weather in other stellar systems. Solar coronal mass ejections can be accompanied by bright radio bursts at low frequencies (typically <100 MHz), that are produced as the resulting shockwave propagates through the corona and interplanetary medium.; searches for similar emissions are ongoing from nearby stellar systems. Exoplanets that encounter CMEs can increase in radio luminosity by orders of magnitude at kHz-MHz frequencies. A detection of this radio emission allows the direct measurement of the magnetic field strength of the planet, informing on whether the atmosphere of the planet can survive the intense magnetic activity of its host star. However, both stellar and planetary radio emission are highly variable and optimal strategies for detection of these emissions requires the capability to monitor 1000s of nearby stellar/planetary systems simultaneously. I will discuss optimized strategies for both ground and space-based experiments to take advantage of the highly variable nature of the radio emissions powered by extrasolar space weather to enable detection of stellar CMEs and planetary magnetospheres.

An Inquiry-Based Approach to Teaching Space Weather to Undergraduate Non-Science Majors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cade, W. B., III

2016-12-01

Undergraduate Space Weather education is an important component of creating a society that is knowledgeable about space weather and its societal impacts. The space physics community has made great strides in providing academic education for students, typically physics and engineering majors, who are interested in pursuing a career in the space sciences or space weather. What is rarely addressed, however, is providing a broader space weather education to undergraduate students as a whole. To help address this gap, I have created an introductory space weather course for non-science majors, with the idea of expanding exposure to space weather beyond the typical physics and engineering students. The philosophy and methodologies used in this course will be presented, as well as the results of the first attempts to teach it. Using an approach more tailored to the non-scientist, courses such as this can be an effective means of broadening space weather education and outreach.

Cost-Loss Analysis of Ensemble Solar Wind Forecasting: Space Weather Use of Terrestrial Weather Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, E. M.; Pope, E. C. D.

2017-12-01

This commentary concerns recent work on solar wind forecasting by Owens and Riley (2017). The approach taken makes effective use of tools commonly used in terrestrial weather—notably, via use of a simple model—generation of an "ensemble" forecast, and application of a "cost-loss" analysis to the resulting probabilistic information, to explore the benefit of this forecast to users with different risk appetites. This commentary aims to highlight these useful techniques to the wider space weather audience and to briefly discuss the general context of application of terrestrial weather approaches to space weather.

ESA SSA Space Weather Services Supporting Space Surveillance and Tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Hilgers, Alain; Fletcher, Emmet

2012-07-01

ESA Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme was started in 2009. The objective of the programme is to support the European independent utilisation of and access to space research or services. This will be performed through providing timely and quality data, information, services and knowledge regarding the environment, the threats and the sustainable exploitation of the outer space surrounding the planet Earth. SSA serves the implementation of the strategic missions of the European Space Policy based on the peaceful uses of the outer space by all states, by supporting the autonomous capacity to securely and safely operate the critical European space infrastructures. The Space Weather (SWE) Segment of the SSA will provide user services related to the monitoring of the Sun, the solar wind, the radiation belts, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. These services will include near real time information and forecasts about the characteristics of the space environment and predictions of space weather impacts on sensitive spaceborne and ground based infrastructure. The SSA SWE system will also include establishment of a permanent database for analysis, model development and scientific research. These services are will support a wide variety of user domains including spacecraft designers, spacecraft operators, human space flights, users and operators of transionospheric radio links, and space weather research community. The precursor SWE services to be established starting in 2010. This presentation provides an overview of the ESA SSA SWE services focused on supporting the Space Surveillance and Tracking users. This services include estimates of the atmospheric drag and archive and forecasts of the geomagnetic and solar indices. In addition, the SSA SWE system will provide nowcasts of the ionospheric group delay to support mitigation of the ionospheric impact on radar signals. The paper will discuss the user requirements for the services, the data

Assimilating Thor: How Airmen Integrate Weather Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

atmosphere and the earth from the air and from space widened the aperture of data so as to overexpose humans to the panoply of information coming...endurance record flights circled the earth without stopping; aircraft climbed through the atmosphere into space. Weather surveillance radar...advances found congruence in the meteorological advance of ensemble weather modeling. Complex, adaptive systems like the atmosphere lend themselves to

Solar Drivers for Space Weather Operations (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, S. M.

2013-12-01

Most space weather effects can be tied back to the Sun, and major research efforts are devoted to understanding the physics of the relevant phenomena with a long-term view of predicting their occurrence. This talk will focus on the current state of knowledge regarding the solar drivers of space weather, and in particular the connection between the science and operational needs. Topics covered will include the effects of solar ionizing flux on communications and navigation, radio interference, flare forecasting, the solar wind and the arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth.

Analysis of GEO spacecraft anomalies: Space weather relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Ho-Sung; Lee, Jaejin; Cho, Kyung-Suk; Kwak, Young-Sil; Cho, Il-Hyun; Park, Young-Deuk; Kim, Yeon-Han; Baker, Daniel N.; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Lee, Dong-Kyu

2011-06-01

While numerous anomalies and failures of spacecraft have been reported since the beginning of the space age, space weather effects on modern spacecraft systems have been emphasized more and more with the increase of their complexity and capability. However, the relationship between space weather and commercial satellite anomalies has not been studied extensively. In this paper, we investigate the geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite anomalies archived by Satellite News Digest during 1997-2009 in order to search for possible influences of space weather on the anomaly occurrences. We analyze spacecraft anomalies for the Kp index, local time, and season and then compare them with the tendencies of charged particles observed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. We obtain the following results: (1) there are good relationships between geomagnetic activity (as measured by the Kp index) and anomaly occurrences of the GEO satellites; (2) the satellite anomalies occurred mainly in the midnight to morning sector; and (3) the anomalies are found more frequently in spring and fall than summer and winter. While we cannot fully explain how space weather is involved in producing such anomalies, our analysis of LANL data shows that low-energy (<100 keV) electrons have similar behaviors with spacecraft anomalies and implies the spacecraft charging might dominantly contribute to the GEO spacecraft anomalies reported in Satellite News Digest.

Growing Diversity in Space Weather and Climate Change Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, L. P.; Ng, C.; Marchese, P.; Austin, S.; Frost, J.; Cheung, T. D.; Robbins, I.; Carlson, B. E.; Steiner, J. C.; Tremberger, G.; Paglione, T.; Damas, C.; Howard, A.; Scalzo, F.

2013-12-01

Space Weather and Global Climate Impacts are critical items on the present national and international science agendas. Understanding and forecasting solar activity is increasingly important for manned space flight, unmanned missions (including communications satellites, satellites that monitor the space and earth environment), and regional power grids. The ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate is critical to survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies via advanced degrees and pursue careers related to these areas. This CUNY-based initiative, supported by NASA and NSF, provided undergraduate research experience for more than 70 students in topics ranging from urban impacts of global climate change to magnetic rope structure, solar flares and CMEs. Other research topics included investigations of the ionosphere using a CubeSat, stratospheric aerosols in Jupiter's atmosphere, and ocean climate modeling. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences included CUNY faculty, GISS and GSFC scientists. Students were recruited from CUNY colleges as well as other colleges including Spelman, Cornell, Rutgers and SUNY colleges. Fifty-eight percent of the undergraduate students were under-represented minorities and thirty-four percent were female. Many of the research teams included high school teachers and students as well as graduate students. Supporting workshops for students included data analysis and visualization tools, space weather, planetary energy balance and BalloonSats. The project is supported by NASA awards NNX10AE72G and NNX09AL77G, and NSF REU Site award 0851932.

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Paving the Way for Progress in Space Science Research to Operational Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Mays, M. L.; Mullinix, R.; MacNeice, P. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Rastaetter, L.; Shim, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Zheng, Y.; Wiegand, C.

2013-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) was established at the dawn of the millennium as an essential element on the National Space Weather Program. One of the CCMC goals was to pave the way for progress in space science research to operational space weather forecasting. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in preparing complex models and model chains for operational environment, in developing and maintaining powerful web-based tools and systems ready to be used by space weather service providers and decision makers as well as in space weather prediction capabilities assessments. The presentation will showcase latest innovative solutions for space weather research, analysis, forecasting and validation and review on-going community-wide initiatives enabled by CCMC applications.

Planetary Space Weather Services for the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

André, Nicolas; Grande, Manuel

2016-04-01

Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI) will include an entirely new Virtual Access Service, WP5 VA1 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. VA1 will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: a general planetary space weather toolkit, as well as three toolkits dedicated to the following key planetary environments: Mars (in support ExoMars), comets (building on the expected success of the ESA Rosetta mission), and outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUICE mission to be launched in 2022). This will give the European planetary science community new methods, interfaces, functionalities and/or plugins dedicated to planetary space weather in the tools and models available within the partner institutes. It will also create a novel event-diary toolkit aiming at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor showers and impacts. A variety of tools (in the form of web applications, standalone software, or numerical models in various degrees of implementation) are available for tracing propagation of planetary and/or solar events through the Solar System and modelling the response of the planetary environment (surfaces, atmospheres, ionospheres, and magnetospheres) to those events. But these tools were not originally designed for planetary event prediction and space weather applications. So WP10 JRA4 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) will provide the additional research and tailoring required to apply them for these purposes. The overall objectives of this Joint Research Aactivities will be to review, test, improve and adapt methods and tools available within the partner institutes in order to make prototype planetary event and space weather services operational in

The SupraThermal Ion Monitor for space weather predictions.

PubMed

Allegrini, F; Desai, M I; Livi, S; McComas, D J; Ho, G C

2014-05-01

Measurement of suprathermal energy ions in the heliosphere has always been challenging because (1) these ions are situated in the energy regime only a few times higher than the solar wind plasma, where intensities are orders of magnitude higher and (2) ion energies are below or close to the threshold of state-of-art solid-state detectors. Suprathermal ions accelerated at coronal mass ejection-driven shocks propagate out ahead of the shocks. These shocks can cause geomagnetic storms in the Earth's magnetosphere that can affect spacecraft and ground-based power and communication systems. An instrument with sufficient sensitivity to measure these ions can be used to predict the arrival of the shocks and provide an advance warning for potentially geo-effective space weather. In this paper, we present a novel energy analyzer concept, the Suprathermal Ion Monitor (STIM) that is designed to measure suprathermal ions with high sensitivity. We show results from a laboratory prototype and demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. A list of key performances is given, as well as a discussion of various possible detectors at the back end. STIM is an ideal candidate for a future space weather monitor in orbit upstream of the near-earth environment, for example, around L1. A scaled-down version is suitable for a CubeSat mission. Such a platform allows proofing the concept and demonstrating its performance in the space environment.

The Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability (SWUSV) Microsatellite Mission

PubMed Central

Damé, Luc; Meftah, Mustapha; Hauchecorne, Alain; Keckhut, Philippe; Sarkissian, Alain; Marchand, Marion; Irbah, Abdenour; Quémerais, Éric; Bekki, Slimane; Foujols, Thomas; Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Cessateur, Gaël; Shapiro, Alexander; Schmutz, Werner; Kuzin, Sergey; Slemzin, Vladimir; Urnov, Alexander; Bogachev, Sergey; Merayo, José; Brauer, Peter; Tsinganos, Kanaris; Paschalis, Antonis; Mahrous, Ayman; Khaled, Safinaz; Ghitas, Ahmed; Marzouk, Besheir; Zaki, Amal; Hady, Ahmed A.; Kariyappa, Rangaiah

2013-01-01

We present the ambitions of the SWUSV (Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability) Microsatellite Mission that encompasses three major scientific objectives: (1) Space Weather including the prediction and detection of major eruptions and coronal mass ejections (Lyman-Alpha and Herzberg continuum imaging); (2) solar forcing on the climate through radiation and their interactions with the local stratosphere (UV spectral irradiance from 180 to 400 nm by bands of 20 nm, plus Lyman-Alpha and the CN bandhead); (3) simultaneous radiative budget of the Earth, UV to IR, with an accuracy better than 1% in differential. The paper briefly outlines the mission and describes the five proposed instruments of the model payload: SUAVE (Solar Ultraviolet Advanced Variability Experiment), an optimized telescope for FUV (Lyman-Alpha) and MUV (200–220 nm Herzberg continuum) imaging (sources of variability); UPR (Ultraviolet Passband Radiometers), with 64 UV filter radiometers; a vector magnetometer; thermal plasma measurements and Langmuir probes; and a total and spectral solar irradiance and Earth radiative budget ensemble (SERB, Solar irradiance & Earth Radiative Budget). SWUSV is proposed as a small mission to CNES and to ESA for a possible flight as early as 2017–2018. PMID:25685424

The Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability (SWUSV) Microsatellite Mission.

PubMed

Damé, Luc

2013-05-01

We present the ambitions of the SWUSV (Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability) Microsatellite Mission that encompasses three major scientific objectives: (1) Space Weather including the prediction and detection of major eruptions and coronal mass ejections (Lyman-Alpha and Herzberg continuum imaging); (2) solar forcing on the climate through radiation and their interactions with the local stratosphere (UV spectral irradiance from 180 to 400 nm by bands of 20 nm, plus Lyman-Alpha and the CN bandhead); (3) simultaneous radiative budget of the Earth, UV to IR, with an accuracy better than 1% in differential. The paper briefly outlines the mission and describes the five proposed instruments of the model payload: SUAVE (Solar Ultraviolet Advanced Variability Experiment), an optimized telescope for FUV (Lyman-Alpha) and MUV (200-220 nm Herzberg continuum) imaging (sources of variability); UPR (Ultraviolet Passband Radiometers), with 64 UV filter radiometers; a vector magnetometer; thermal plasma measurements and Langmuir probes; and a total and spectral solar irradiance and Earth radiative budget ensemble (SERB, Solar irradiance & Earth Radiative Budget). SWUSV is proposed as a small mission to CNES and to ESA for a possible flight as early as 2017-2018.

The Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather (US Project)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.; Basoli, D.; Griot, O.

2017-12-01

The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for new research into the social and economic impacts of space weather and for the development of quantitative estimates of potential costs. In response to this call, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Abt Associates are working together to identify, describe, and quantify the impact of space weather to U.S. interests. This study covers impacts resulting from both moderate and severe space weather events across four technological sectors: Electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) users. It captures the full range of potential impacts, identified from an extensive literature review and from additional conversations with more than 50 sector stakeholders of diverse expertise from engineering to operations to end users. We organize and discuss our findings in terms of five broad but interrelated impact categories including Defensive Investments, Mitigating Actions, Asset Damages, Service Interruptions, and Health Effects. We also present simple, tractable estimates of the potential costs where we focused on quantifying a subset of all identified impacts that are apt to be largest and are also most plausible during moderate and more severe space weather scenarios. We hope that our systematic exploration of the social and economic impacts provides a foundation for the future work that is critical for designing technologies, developing procedures, and implementing policies that can effectively reduce our known and evolving vulnerabilities to this natural hazard.

Space Weather Editors in Transition: Hail and Farewell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipp, Delores J.

2017-02-01

I hope you will join me in welcoming Dr. Daniel Welling of University of Michigan and Dr. T. Paul O'Brien of the Aerospace Corporation to the Space Weather (SWE) editorial team. Dan and Paul have answered the call to fill the shoes of two departing editors: Dr. Howard Singer and Dr. Barbara Giles. Dan brings insight related to space weather model development, while Paul brings expertise in the geospace radiation environment.

A space weather information service based upon remote and in-situ measurements of coronal mass ejections heading for Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartkorn, O. A.; Ritter, B.; Meskers, A. J. H.; Miles, O.; Russwurm, M.; Scully, S.; Roldan, A.; Juestel, P.; Reville, V.; Lupu, S.; Ruffenach, A.

2014-12-01

mission allows for major advances in space weather forecasting and the scientific modeling of space weather.

Innovative Near Real-Time Data Dissemination Tools Developed by the Space Weather Research Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maddox, Marlo M.; Mullinix, Richard; Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria; Zheng, Yihua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Rastaetter, Lutz

2013-03-01

Access to near real-time and real-time space weather data is essential to accurately specifying and forecasting the space environment. The Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Space Weather Laboratory provides vital space weather forecasting services primarily to NASA robotic mission operators, as well as external space weather stakeholders including the Air Force Weather Agency. A key component in this activity is the iNtegrated Space Weather Analysis System which is a joint development project at NASA GSFC between the Space Weather Laboratory, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Applied Engineering & Technology Directorate, and NASA HQ Office Of Chief Engineer. The iSWA system was developed to address technical challenges in acquiring and disseminating space weather environment information. A key design driver for the iSWA system was to generate and present vast amounts of space weather resources in an intuitive, user-configurable, and adaptable format - thus enabling users to respond to current and future space weather impacts as well as enabling post-impact analysis. Having access to near real-time and real-time data is essential to not only ensuring that relevant observational data is available for analysis - but also in ensuring that models can be driven with the requisite input parameters at proper and efficient temporal and spacial resolutions. The iSWA system currently manages over 300 unique near-real and real-time data feeds from various sources consisting of both observational and simulation data. A comprehensive suite of actionable space weather analysis tools and products are generated and provided utilizing a mixture of the ingested data - enabling new capabilities in quickly assessing past, present, and expected space weather effects. This paper will highlight current and future iSWA system capabilities including the utilization of data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory mission. http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/

The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

PubMed Central

Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

2014-01-01

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Key Points Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assets Current assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic storms Near-future assets will not improve the situation PMID:26213516

Next generation of space based sensor for application in the SSA space weather domain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jansen, Frank; Kudela, Karel; Behrens, Joerg

Next generation of space based sensor for application in the SSA space weather domain. F. Jansen1, K. Kudela2, J. Behrens1 and NESTEC consortium3 1DLR, Bremen, Germany 2IEP SAS Kosice, Slovakia 3NESTEC consortium members (DLR Bremen, DESY Hamburg, MPS Katlenburg-Lindau, CTU Prague, University of Twente, IEP-SAS Kosice, UCL/MSSL, University of Manchester, University of Surrey, Hermanus Magnetic Observatory, North-West University Potchefsroom, University of Montreal) High energy solar and galactic cosmic rays have twofold importance for the SSA space weather domain. Cosmic rays have dangerous effects for space, air and ground based assets, but on the other side cosmic rays are direct measure tools for real time space weather warning. A review of space weather related SSA results from operating global cosmic ray networks (especially those by neutron monitors and by muon directional telescopes), its limitations and main questions to be solved, is presented. Especially those recent results, received in real time and with high temporal resolution, are reviewed and discussed. In addition the relevance of these monitors and telescopes in forecasting geomagnetic disturbances are checked. Based on this study result, a next generation of highly miniaturized hybrid silicon pixel device (Medipix sensor) will be described for the following, beyond state-of-the-art application: a SSA satellite for high energy solar and galactic cosmic ray spectrum measurement, with a space plasma environment data package and CME real time imaging by means of cosmic rays. All data management and processing will be carried out on the satellite in real time. Insofar a high reduction of data and transmission to ground station of finalized space weather relevant data and images are foreseen.

Multi-physics simulations of space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gombosi, Tamas; Toth, Gabor; Sokolov, Igor; de Zeeuw, Darren; van der Holst, Bart; Cohen, Ofer; Glocer, Alex; Manchester, Ward, IV; Ridley, Aaron

Presently magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models represent the "workhorse" technology for simulating the space environment from the solar corona to the ionosphere. While these models are very successful in describing many important phenomena, they are based on a low-order moment approximation of the phase-space distribution function. In the last decade our group at the Center for Space Environment Modeling (CSEM) has developed the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) that efficiently couples together different models describing the interacting regions of the space environment. Many of these domain models (such as the global solar corona, the inner heliosphere or the global magnetosphere) are based on MHD and are represented by our multiphysics code, BATS-R-US. BATS-R-US can solve the equations of "standard" ideal MHD, but it can also go beyond this first approximation. It can solve resistive MHD, Hall MHD, semi-relativistic MHD (that keeps the displacement current), multispecies (different ion species have different continuity equations) and multifluid (all ion species have separate continuity, momentum and energy equations) MHD. Recently we added two-fluid Hall MHD (solving the electron and ion energy equations separately) and are working on extended magnetohydrodynamics with anisotropic pressures. This talk will show the effects of added physics and compare space weather simulation results to "standard" ideal MHD.

Space Weather Influence on the Earth wheat markets: past, present, and future.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, Lev

We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agriculture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works (I, II) included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the question, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predominant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Posner, Arik; Hesse, Michael; SaintCyr, Chris

2014-01-01

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Developing space weathering on the asteroid 25143 Itokawa.

PubMed

Hiroi, Takahiro; Abe, Masanao; Kitazato, Kohei; Abe, Shinsuke; Clark, Beth E; Sasaki, Sho; Ishiguro, Masateru; Barnouin-Jha, Olivier S

2006-09-07

Puzzlingly, the parent bodies of ordinary chondrites (the most abundant type of meteorites) do not seem to be abundant among asteroids. One possible explanation is that surfaces of the parent bodies become optically altered, to become the S-type asteroids which are abundant in the main asteroid belt. The process is called 'space weathering'-it makes the visible and near-infrared reflectance spectrum of a body darker and redder. A recent survey of small, near-Earth asteroids suggests that the surfaces of small S asteroids may have developing stages of space weathering. Here we report that a dark region on a small (550-metre) asteroid-25143 Itokawa-is significantly more space-weathered than a nearby bright region. Spectra of both regions are consistent with those of LL5-6 chondrites after continuum removal. A simple calculation suggests that the dark area has a shorter mean optical path length and about 0.04 per cent by volume more nanophase metallic iron particles than the bright area. This clearly shows that space-weathered materials accumulate on small asteroids, which are likely to be the parent bodies of LL chondrites. We conclude that, because LL meteorites are the least abundant of ordinary (H, L, and LL) chondrites, there must be many asteroids with ordinary-chondrite compositions in near-Earth orbits.

Ionospheric Response to Extremes in the Space Environment: Establishing Benchmarks for the Space Weather Action Plan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.; Azeem, S. I.

2017-12-01

One of the goals of the National Space Weather Action Plan is to establish extreme event benchmarks. These benchmarks are estimates of environmental parameters that impact technologies and systems during extreme space weather events. Quantitative assessment of anticipated conditions during these extreme space weather event will enable operators and users of affected technologies to develop plans for mitigating space weather risks and improve preparedness. The ionosphere is one of the most important regions of space because so many applications either depend on ionospheric space weather for their operation (HF communication, over-the-horizon radars), or can be deleteriously affected by ionospheric conditions (e.g. GNSS navigation and timing, UHF satellite communications, synthetic aperture radar, HF communications). Since the processes that influence the ionosphere vary over time scales from seconds to years, it continues to be a challenge to adequately predict its behavior in many circumstances. Estimates with large uncertainties, in excess of 100%, may result in operators of impacted technologies over or under preparing for such events. The goal of the next phase of the benchmarking activity is to reduce these uncertainties. In this presentation, we will focus on the sources of uncertainty in the ionospheric response to extreme geomagnetic storms. We will then discuss various research efforts required to better understand the underlying processes of ionospheric variability and how the uncertainties in ionospheric response to extreme space weather could be reduced and the estimates improved.

Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganushkina, Natalia; Jaynes, Allison; Liemohn, Michael

2017-11-01

One of the definitions of space weather describes it as the time-varying space environment that may be hazardous to technological systems in space and/or on the ground and/or endanger human health or life. The ring current has its contributions to space weather effects, both in terms of particles, ions and electrons, which constitute it, and magnetic and electric fields produced and modified by it at the ground and in space. We address the main aspects of the space weather effects from the ring current starting with brief review of ring current discovery and physical processes and the Dst-index and predictions of the ring current and storm occurrence based on it. Special attention is paid to the effects on satellites produced by the ring current electrons. The ring current is responsible for several processes in the other inner magnetosphere populations, such as the plasmasphere and radiation belts which is also described. Finally, we discuss the ring current influence on the ionosphere and the generation of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC).

Adaptive Numerical Algorithms in Space Weather Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toth, Gabor; vanderHolst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; DeZeeuw, Darren; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Nakib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.;

The Critical Role of the Research Community in Space Weather Planning and Execution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Robert M.; Behnke, Richard A.; Moretto, Therese

2018-03-01

The explosion of interest in space weather in the last 25 years has been due to a confluence of efforts all over the globe, motivated by the recognition that events on the Sun and the consequent conditions in interplanetary space and Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere can have serious impacts on vital technological systems. The fundamental research conducted at universities, government laboratories, and in the private sector has led to tremendous improvements in the ability to forecast space weather events and predict their impacts on human technology and health. The mobilization of the research community that made this progress possible was the result of a series of actions taken by the National Science Foundation (NSF) to build a national program aimed at space weather. The path forward for space weather is to build on those successes through continued involvement of the research community and support for programs aimed at strengthening basic research and education in academia, the private sector, and government laboratories. Investments in space weather are most effective when applied at the intersection of research and applications. Thus, to achieve the goals set forth originally by the National Space Weather Program, the research community must be fully engaged in the planning, implementation, and execution of space weather activities, currently being coordinated by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Subcommittee under the National Science and Technology Council.

Surface Exposure Ages of Space-Weathered Grains from Asteroid 25143 Itokawa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, L. P.; Berger, E. L.; Christoffersen, R.

2015-01-01

Space weathering processes such as solar wind ion irradiation and micrometeorite impacts are widely known to alter the properties of regolith materials exposed on airless bodies. The rates of space weathering processes however, are poorly constrained for asteroid regoliths, with recent estimates ranging over many orders of magnitude. The return of surface samples by JAXA's Hayabusa mission to asteroid 25143 Itokawa, and their laboratory analysis provides "ground truth" to anchor the timescales for space weathering processes on airless bodies.

On the forecasting the unfavorable periods in the technosphere by the space weather factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyakhov, N. N.

2002-12-01

There is the considerable progress in development of geomagnetic disturbances forecast technique, in the necessary time, by solar activity phenomena last years. The possible relationship between violations of the traffic safety terms (VTS) in East Siberian Railway during 1986-1999 and the space weather factors was investigated. The overall number of cases under consideration is equal to 11575. By methods of correlation and spectral analysis it was shown, that statistics of VTS has not a random and it's character is probably caused by space weather factors. The principal difference between rhythmic of VTS by purely technical reasons (MECH) (failures in mechanical systems) and, that of VTS caused by wrong operations of a personnel (MAN), is noted. Increase of sudden storm commencements number results in increase of probability of mistakable actions of an operator. Probability of violations in mechanical systems increases with increase of number of quiet geomagnetic conditions. This, in its turn, dictate different approach to the ordered rows of MECH and MAN data when forecasting the unfavourable periods as the priods of increased risk in working out a wrong decision by technological process participants. The advances in forecasting of geomagnetic environment technique made possible to start construction of systems of the operative informing about unfavourable factors of space weather for the interested organizations.

Innovative Near Real-Time Data Dissemination Tools Developed by the Space Weather Research Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullinix, R.; Maddox, M. M.; Berrios, D.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Zheng, Y.

2012-12-01

Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions are therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products compels the need for a single access point to such information. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System provides this single point access along with the capability to collect and catalog a vast range of sources including both observational and model data. NASA Goddard Space Weather Research Center heavily utilizes the iSWA System daily for research, space weather model validation, and forecasting for NASA missions. iSWA provides the capabilities to view and analyze near real-time space weather data from any where in the world. This presentation will describe the technology behind the iSWA system and describe how to use the system for space weather research, forecasting, training, education, and sharing.

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC): Using innovative tools and services to support worldwide space weather scientific communities and networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, A. M.; Bakshi, S.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Evans, R. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Lee, H.; MacNeice, P. J.; Maddox, M. M.; Mays, M. L.; Mullinix, R. E.; Ngwira, C. M.; Patel, K.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Shim, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Zheng, Y.

2012-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) was established to enhance basic solar terrestrial research and to aid in the development of models for specifying and forecasting conditions in the space environment. In achieving this goal, CCMC has developed and provides a set of innovative tools varying from: Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) web -based dissemination system for space weather information, Runs-On-Request System providing access to unique collection of state-of-the-art solar and space physics models (unmatched anywhere in the world), Advanced Online Visualization and Analysis tools for more accurate interpretation of model results, Standard Data formats for Simulation Data downloads, and recently Mobile apps (iPhone/Android) to view space weather data anywhere to the scientific community. The number of runs requested and the number of resulting scientific publications and presentations from the research community has not only been an indication of the broad scientific usage of the CCMC and effective participation by space scientists and researchers, but also guarantees active collaboration and coordination amongst the space weather research community. Arising from the course of CCMC activities, CCMC also supports community-wide model validation challenges and research focus group projects for a broad range of programs such as the multi-agency National Space Weather Program, NSF's CEDAR (Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions), GEM (Geospace Environment Modeling) and Shine (Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment) programs. In addition to performing research and model development, CCMC also supports space science education by hosting summer students through local universities; through the provision of simulations in support of classroom programs such as Heliophysics Summer School (with student research contest) and CCMC Workshops; training next generation of junior scientists in space weather forecasting; and educating

The Cubesat Heliospheric Imaging Experiment for Space Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeForest, Craig; Howard, T.; Dickinson, J.; Epperly, M.; Kief, C.

2010-05-01

Heliospheric imaging data have been shown to improve space weather prediction by an order of magnitude, and heliospheric monitoring by the SMEI and STEREO-HI instruments have proven to be extremely useful for understanding heliospheric conditions near Earth. However, SMEI is approaching end-of-life and the STEREOs are drifting away from favorable Earth-viewing geometry just as the new solar cycle begins. CHIME is an innovative, miniaturized, fully functional space weather heliospheric monitor that fits within the 3U CubeSat envelope and can be flown individually (as a scientific or demonstrator mission) or in a swarm (to attain operational-class reliability) at a small fraction of the cost of a conventional mission. Here we describe the CHIME concept and its use with the automated processing pipeline AICMED to improve space weather prediction.

Space-weathering processes and products on volatile-rich asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Britt, D.; Schelling, P.; Consolmagno, G.; Bradley, T.

2014-07-01

Space weathering is a generic term for the effects on atmosphereless solid bodies in the solar system from a range of processes associated with direct exposure to the space environment. These include impact processes (shock, vaporization, fragmentation, heating, melting, and ejecta formation), radiation damage (from galactic and solar cosmic rays), solar-wind effects (irradiation, ion implantation, and sputtering), and the chemical reactions driven by these processes. The classic example of space weathering is the formation of the lunar spectral red slope associated with the production of nanophase Fe (npFe0) in the dusty lunar regolith (C.R. Chapman, 2004, Annual Review of Earth & Planet. Sci. 32, C.M. Pieters, 2000, MAPS 35). Similar npFe0 has been recovered from asteroid (25143) Itokawa and some asteroid classes do exhibit modest spectral red slopes (T. Noguchi, 2011, Science 333). Space weathering can be thought of as driven by a combination of the chemical environment of space (hard vacuum, low oxygen fugacity, solar-wind implantation of hydrogen) along with thermal energy supplied by micrometeorite impacts. The forward modeling of space weathering as thermodynamically-driven decomposition of common rock-forming minerals suggests the production of a range of daughter products: (1) The silicate products typically lose oxygen, other volatile elements (i.e., sulfur and sodium), and metallic cations, producing minerals that are typically more disordered and less optically active than the original parent materials. (2) The decomposed metallic cations form in nano-sized blebs including npFe0, on the surfaces or in condensing rims of mineral grains. This creates a powerful optical component as seen in the lunar red slope. Surfaces with exposed npFe0 are an ideal environment for catalyzing further reactions. (3) The liberated volatile elements and gases (O, S, Na) may form an observable exosphere (e.g., Moon and Mercury) and can either escape from the body or

Lanzerotti to Head New AGU Journal on Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifland, Jonathan

Louis J. Lanzerotti has been named editor of a new AGU online publication devoted to the emerging field of near-Earth space conditions and their effects on technical systems. Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications, will be the first journal dedicated solely to the subject, and will include peer-reviewed research, as well as news, features, and opinion articles. A quarterly magazine digest will also be published from the online edition and distributed free of charge to space weather professionals. Lanzerotti, a longtime AGU member who was elected an AGU Fellow in 1985, is currently a consulting physicist at Lucent Technologies Bell Laboratories, and a distinguished research professor at the New Jersey Institute of Technology. He also serves on the governing board of the American Institute of Physics. He is author or co-author of more than 500 publications, including many related to space weather and its effects on communications.

Space Weather Around the World: An IHY Education Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thieman, J. R.; Ng, C.; Hawkins, I.; Lewis, E.; Cline, T.

2007-05-01

Fifty years ago the International Geophysical Year organized a unique and unprecedented program of research that united 60,000 scientists from 66 nations to study global phenomena concerning the Earth and its space environment. In that same spirit, "Space Weather Around the World" is a program to coordinate and facilitate the involvement of NASA heliophysics missions and scientists to inspire and educate a world-wide audience about the International Heliophysical Year (IHY). We will use the popular Sun-Earth Day annual event framework sponsored by the Sun-Earth Connection Education Forum to promote IHY science and the spirit of international collaboration. The theme for the March 2007 Sun-Earth Day: "IHY: Living in the Atmosphere of the Sun" was selected a year ago in anticipation of the IHY celebration. These efforts will be expanded through a series of coordinated programs under the theme "Space Weather Around the World" for Sun-Earth Day 2008. We will produce a live broadcast from China of the total solar eclipse on August 1st 2008 as the central event, highlighting investigations associated with the eclipse by the international heliophysics community. Additional collaborative efforts will include: a Space Weather Media Maker web-tool to allow educators and scientists to create their own multi-media resource to enhance teaching and learning at all levels; Rock-n-Sol, a musical composition by children internationally inspired by space weather and incorporating sonifications of solar data; and Space Weather Action Centers for students to track a solar storm featuring podcasts of multi-cultural perspectives on IHY. The anticipated audience would be millions of people internationally The science and E/PO heliophysics community has an exciting story to tell about IHY, and we look forward to the opportunity to share it globally.

Nanoscale Analysis of Space-Weathering Features in Soils from Itokawa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, M. S.; Christoffersen, R.; Zega, T. J.; Keller, L. P.

2014-01-01

Space weathering alters the spectral properties of airless body surface materials by redden-ing and darkening their spectra and attenuating characteristic absorption bands, making it challenging to characterize them remotely [1,2]. It also causes a discrepency between laboratory analysis of meteorites and remotely sensed spectra from asteroids, making it difficult to associate meteorites with their parent bodies. The mechanisms driving space weathering include mi-crometeorite impacts and the interaction of surface materials with solar energetic ions, particularly the solar wind. These processes continuously alter the microchemical and structural characteristics of exposed grains on airless bodies. The change of these properties is caused predominantly by the vapor deposition of reduced Fe and FeS nanoparticles (npFe(sup 0) and npFeS respectively) onto the rims of surface grains [3]. Sample-based analysis of space weathering has tra-ditionally been limited to lunar soils and select asteroidal and lunar regolith breccias [3-5]. With the return of samples from the Hayabusa mission to asteroid Itoka-wa [6], for the first time we are able to compare space-weathering features on returned surface soils from a known asteroidal body. Analysis of these samples will contribute to a more comprehensive model for how space weathering varies across the inner solar system. Here we report detailed microchemical and microstructal analysis of surface grains from Itokawa.

Operationalizing Space Weather Products - Process and Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scro, K. D.; Quigley, S.

2006-12-01

Developing and transitioning operational products for any customer base is a complicated process. This is the case for operational space weather products and services for the USAF. This presentation will provide information on the current state of affairs regarding the process required to take an idea from the research field to the real-time application of 24-hour space weather operations support. General principles and specific issues are discussed and will include: customer requirements, organizations in-play, funding, product types, acquisition of engineering and validation data, security classification, version control, and various important changes that occur during the process. The author's viewpoint is as an individual developing space environmental system-impact products for the US Air Force: 1) as a member of its primary research organization (Air Force Research Laboratory), 2) working with its primary space environment technology transition organization (Technology Application Division of the Space and Missile Systems Center, SMC/WXT), and 3) delivering to the primary sponsor/customer of such system-impact products (Air Force Space Command). The experience and focus is obviously on specific military operationalization process and issues, but most of the paradigm may apply to other (commercial) enterprises as well.

Solar thematic maps for space weather operations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rigler, E. Joshua; Hill, Steven M.; Reinard, Alysha A.; Steenburgh, Robert A.

2012-01-01

Thematic maps are arrays of labels, or "themes", associated with discrete locations in space and time. Borrowing heavily from the terrestrial remote sensing discipline, a numerical technique based on Bayes' theorem captures operational expertise in the form of trained theme statistics, then uses this to automatically assign labels to solar image pixels. Ultimately, regular thematic maps of the solar corona will be generated from high-cadence, high-resolution SUVI images, the solar ultraviolet imager slated to fly on NOAA's next-generation GOES-R series of satellites starting ~2016. These thematic maps will not only provide quicker, more consistent synoptic views of the sun for space weather forecasters, but digital thematic pixel masks (e.g., coronal hole, active region, flare, etc.), necessary for a new generation of operational solar data products, will be generated. This paper presents the mathematical underpinnings of our thematic mapper, as well as some practical algorithmic considerations. Then, using images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Advanced Imaging Array (AIA) as test data, it presents results from validation experiments designed to ascertain the robustness of the technique with respect to differing expert opinions and changing solar conditions.

Discover Space Weather and Sun's Superpowers: Using CCMC's innovative tools and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, A. M. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Chulaki, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Mullinix, R.; Weigand, C.; Boblitt, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.; Mays, M. L.; Zheng, Y.; Shim, J. S.

2015-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has developed a comprehensive set of tools and applications that are directly applicable to space weather and space science education. These tools, some of which were developed by our student interns, are capable of serving a wide range of student audiences, from middle school to postgraduate research. They include a web-based point of access to sophisticated space physics models and visualizations, and a powerful space weather information dissemination system, available on the web and as a mobile app. In this demonstration, we will use CCMC's innovative tools to engage the audience in real-time space weather analysis and forecasting and will share some of our interns' hands-on experiences while being trained as junior space weather forecasters. The main portals to CCMC's educational material are ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov and iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov

Light scattering and absorption by space weathered planetary bodies: Novel numerical solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markkanen, Johannes; Väisänen, Timo; Penttilä, Antti; Muinonen, Karri

2017-10-01

Airless planetary bodies are exposed to space weathering, i.e., energetic electromagnetic and particle radiation, implantation and sputtering from solar wind particles, and micrometeorite bombardment.Space weathering is known to alter the physical and chemical composition of the surface of an airless body (C. Pieters et al., J. Geophys. Res. Planets, 121, 2016). From the light scattering perspective, one of the key effects is the production of nanophase iron (npFe0) near the exposed surfaces (B. Hapke, J. Geophys. Res., 106, E5, 2001). At visible and ultraviolet wavelengths these particles have a strong electromagnetic response which has a major impact on scattering and absorption features. Thus, to interpret the spectroscopic observations of space-weathered asteroids, the model should treat the contributions of the npFe0 particles rigorously.Our numerical approach is based on the hierarchical geometric optics (GO) and radiative transfer (RT). The modelled asteroid is assumed to consist of densely packed silicate grains with npFe0 inclusions. We employ our recently developed RT method for dense random media (K. Muinonen, et al., Radio Science, submitted, 2017) to compute the contributions of the npFe0 particles embedded in silicate grains. The dense media RT method requires computing interactions of the npFe0 particles in the volume element for which we use the exact fast superposition T-matrix method (J. Markkanen, and A.J. Yuffa, JQSRT 189, 2017). Reflections and refractions on the grain surface and propagation in the grain are addressed by the GO. Finally, the standard RT is applied to compute scattering by the entire asteroid.Our numerical method allows for a quantitative interpretation of the spectroscopic observations of space-weathered asteroids. In addition, it may be an important step towards more rigorous a thermophysical model of asteroids when coupled with the radiative and conductive heat transfer techniques.Acknowledgments. Research supported by

Space weather observational activities and data management in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanisławska, Iwona; Belehaki, Anna

2009-03-01

One of the primary scientific and technical goals of Space Weather investigations is to produce data in order to study the Sun impact on the Earth and its environment. Studies based on data mining philosophy increase our knowledge of the physical properties of Space Weather, modelling capabilities, and gain applications of various procedures in Space Weather monitoring and forecasting. The paper focuses on an analysis of the availability on the Internet of near-real time and historical collections of the European ground-based and satellite observations, operational indices and parameters. A detailed description of data delivered is included. The following issues are discussed: (1) raw observations, and/or corrected/updated data, (2) resolution and availability of real-time and historical data, (3) products resulting from models and theory including maps, forecasts and alerts, (4) platforms for data delivery.

Space weather modeling using artificial neural network. (Slovak Title: Modelovanie kozmického počasia umelou neurónovou sietou)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valach, F.; Revallo, M.; Hejda, P.; Bochníček, J.

2010-12-01

Our modern society with its advanced technology is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the Earth's system disorders originating in explosive processes on the Sun. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) blasted into interplanetary space as gigantic clouds of ionized gas can hit Earth within a few hours or days and cause, among other effects, geomagnetic storms - perhaps the best known manifestation of solar wind interaction with Earth's magnetosphere. Solar energetic particles (SEP), accelerated to near relativistic energy during large solar storms, arrive at the Earth's orbit even in few minutes and pose serious risk to astronauts traveling through the interplanetary space. These and many other threats are the reason why experts pay increasing attention to space weather and its predictability. For research on space weather, it is typically necessary to examine a large number of parameters which are interrelated in a complex non-linear way. One way to cope with such a task is to use an artificial neural network for space weather modeling, a tool originally developed for artificial intelligence. In our contribution, we focus on practical aspects of the neural networks application to modeling and forecasting selected space weather parameters.

Using Flow Charts to Visualize the Decision-Making Process in Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aung, M. T. Y.; Myat, T.; Zheng, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Ngwira, C.; Damas, M. C.

2016-12-01

Our society today relies heavily on technological systems such as satellites, navigation systems, power grids and aviation. These systems are very sensitive to space weather disturbances. When Earth-directed space weather driven by the Sun arrives at the Earth, it causes changes to the Earth's radiation environment and the magnetosphere. Strong disturbances in the magnetosphere of the Earth are responsible for geomagnetic storms that can last from hours to days depending on strength of storms. Geomagnetic storms can severely impact critical infrastructure on Earth, such as the electric power grid, and Solar Energetic Particles that can endanger life in outer space. How can we lessen these adverse effects? They can be lessened through the early warning signals sent by space weather forecasters before CME or high-speed stream arrives. A space weather forecaster's duty is to send predicted notifications to high-tech industries and NASA missions so that they could take extra measures for protection. NASA space weather forecasters make prediction decisions by following certain steps and processes from the time an event occurs at the sun all the way to the impact locations. However, there has never been a tool that helps these forecasters visualize the decision process until now. A flow chart is created to help forecasters visualize the decision process. This flow chart provides basic knowledge of space weather and can be used to train future space weather forecasters. It also helps to cut down the training period and increase consistency in forecasting. The flow chart is also a great reference for people who are already familiar with space weather.

Advanced Topics in Wet-Weather Discharge Control

EPA Science Inventory

This report discusses four related but generally independent wet-weather flow (WWF) topic areas, namely: i) opportunities for advanced practices in WWF control technology, particularly as it applies to sewered systems; ii) tradeoffs between storage facilities (tanks) and enlarged...

Real Time Space Weather Support for Chandra X-Ray Observatory Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Dell, Stephen L.; Minow, Joseph I.; Miller, J. Scott; Wolk, Scott J.; Aldcroft, Thomas L.; Spitzbart, Bradley D.; Swartz. Douglas A.

2012-01-01

NASA launched the Chandra X-ray Observatory in July 1999. Soon after first light in August 1999, however, degradation in the energy resolution and charge transfer efficiency of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) x-ray detectors was observed. The source of the degradation was quickly identified as radiation damage in the charge-transfer channel of the front-illuminated CCDs, by weakly penetrating ( soft , 100 500 keV) protons as Chandra passed through the Earth s radiation belts and ring currents. As soft protons were not considered a risk to spacecraft health before launch, the only on-board radiation monitoring system is the Electron, Proton, and Helium Instrument (EPHIN) which was included on Chandra with the primary purpose of monitoring energetic solar particle events. Further damage to the ACIS detector has been successfully mitigated through a combination of careful mission planning, autonomous on-board radiation protection, and manual intervention based upon real-time monitoring of the soft-proton environment. The AE-8 and AP-8 trapped radiation models and Chandra Radiation Models are used to schedule science operations in regions of low proton flux. EPHIN has been used as the primary autonomous in-situ radiation trigger; but, it is not sensitive to the soft protons that damage the front-illuminated CCDs. Monitoring of near-real-time space weather data sources provides critical information on the proton environment outside the Earth s magnetosphere due to solar proton events and other phenomena. The operations team uses data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) to provide near-real-time monitoring of the proton environment; however, these data do not give a representative measure of the soft-proton (< 1 MeV) flux in Chandra s high elliptical orbit. The only source of relevant measurements of sub-MeV protons is the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) aboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite at L1

Space Weather Impacts on Spacecraft Operations: Identifying and Establishing High-Priority Operational Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, G.; Reid, S.; Tranquille, C.; Evans, H.

2013-12-01

Space Weather is a multi-disciplinary and cross-domain system defined as, 'The physical and phenomenological state of natural space environments. The associated discipline aims, through observation, monitoring, analysis and modelling, at understanding and predicting the state of the Sun, the interplanetary and planetary environments, and the solar and non-solar driven perturbations that affect them, and also at forecasting and nowcasting the potential impacts on biological and technological systems'. National and Agency-level efforts to provide services addressing the myriad problems, such as ESA's SSA programme are therefore typically complex and ambitious undertakings to introduce a comprehensive suite of services aimed at a large number and broad range of end users. We focus on some of the particular threats and risks that Space Weather events pose to the Spacecraft Operations community, and the resulting implications in terms of User Requirements. We describe some of the highest-priority service elements identified as being needed by the Operations community, and outline some service components that are presently available, or under development. The particular threats and risks often vary according to orbit, so the particular User Needs for Operators at LEO, MEO and GEO are elaborated. The inter-relationship between these needed service elements and existing service components within the broader Space Weather domain is explored. Some high-priority service elements and potential correlation with Space Weather drivers include: solar array degradation and energetic proton storms; single event upsets at GEO and solar proton events and galactic cosmic rays; surface charging and deep dielectric charging at MEO and radiation belt dynamics; SEUs at LEO and the South Atlantic Anomaly and its variability. We examine the current capability to provide operational services addressing such threats and identify some advances that the Operations community can expect to benefit

A roadmap towards advanced space weather science to protect society's technological infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, Carolus

As mankind’s technological capabilities grow, society constructs a rapidly deepening insight into the workings of the universe at large, being guided by exploring space near to our home. But at the same time our societal dependence on technology increases and with that comes a growing appreciation of the challenges presented by the phenomena that occur in that space around our home planet: Magnetic explosions on the Sun and their counterparts in the geomagnetic field can in extreme cases endanger our all-pervasive electrical infrastructure. Powerful space storms occasionally lower the reliability of the globe-spanning satellite navigation systems and interrupt radio communications. Energetic particle storms lead to malfunctions and even failures in satellites that are critical to the flow of information in the globally connected economies. These and other Sun-driven effects on Earth’s environment, collectively known as space weather, resemble some other natural hazards in the sense that they pose a risk for the safe and efficient functioning of society that needs to be understood, quantified, and - ultimately - mitigated against. The complexity of the coupled Sun-Earth system, the sparseness by which it can be covered by remote-sensing and in-situ instrumentation, and the costs of the required observational and computational infrastructure warrant a well-planned and well-coordinated approach with cost-efficient solutions. Our team is tasked with the development of a roadmap with the goal of demonstrably improving our observational capabilities, scientific understanding, and the ability to forecast. This paper summarizes the accomplishments of the roadmap team in identifying the highest-priority challenges to achieve these goals.

Monitoring Space Weather Hazards caused by geomagnetic disturbances with Space Hazard Monitor (SHM) systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Gannon, J. L.; Peek, T. A.; Lin, D.

2017-12-01

One space weather hazard is the Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in the electric power transmission systems, which is naturally induced geoelectric field during the geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs). GICs are a potentially catastrophic threat to bulk power systems. For instance, the Blackout in Quebec in March 1989 was caused by GMDs during a significant magnetic storm. To monitor the GMDs, the autonomous Space Hazard Monitor (SHM) system is developed recently. The system includes magnetic field measurement from magnetometers and geomagnetic field measurement from electrodes. In this presentation, we introduce the six sites of SHMs which have been deployed in the US continental regions. The data from the magnetometers are processed with the Multiple Observatory Geomagnetic Data Analysis Software (MOGDAS). And the statistical results are presented here. It reveals not only the impacts of space weather over US continental region but also the potential of improving instrumentation development to provide better space weather monitor.

MESSENGER Observations of Extreme Space Weather in Mercury's Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slavin, J. A.

2013-09-01

Increasing activity on the Sun is allowing MESSENGER to make its first observations of Mercury's magnetosphere under extreme solar wind conditions. At Earth interplanetary shock waves and coronal mass ejections produce severe "space weather" in the form of large geomagnetic storms that affect telecommunications, space systems, and ground-based power grids. In the case of Mercury the primary effect of extreme space weather in on the degree to which this it's weak global magnetic field can shield the planet from the solar wind. Direct impact of the solar wind on the surface of airless bodies like Mercury results in space weathering of the regolith and the sputtering of atomic species like sodium and calcium to high altitudes where they contribute to a tenuous, but highly dynamic exosphere. MESSENGER observations indicate that during extreme interplanetary conditions the solar wind plasma gains access to the surface of Mercury through three main regions: 1. The magnetospheric cusps, which fill with energized solar wind and planetary ions; 2. The subsolar magnetopause, which is compressed and eroded by reconnection to very low altitudes where the natural gyro-motion of solar wind protons may result in their impact on the surface; 3. The magnetotail where hot plasma sheet ions rapidly convect sunward to impact the surface on the nightside of Mercury. The possible implications of these new MESSENGER observations for our ability to predict space weather at Earth and other planets will be described.

Mercury's Weather-Beaten Surface: Understanding Mercury in the Context of Lunar and Asteroid Space Weathering Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dominque, Deborah L.; Chapman, Clark R.; Killen, Rosemary M.; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.; Gilbert, Jason A.; Sarantos, Menelaos; Benna, Mehdi; Slavin, James A.; Orlando, Thomas M.; Schriver, David;

Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese

2011-01-01

The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations

Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese

2012-01-01

The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations.

Global economic impacts of severe Space Weather.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulte In Den Baeumen, Hagen; Cairns, Iver

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events, and could have substantial impacts on electric power transmission and telecommunication grids. Modern society’s heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe Space Weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy we simulate the economic impact of large CMEs for 3 different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies through international trade. For the CMEs modeled the total global economic impacts would range from US 380 billion to US 1 trillion. Of this total economic shock 50 % would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global GDP of 0.1 - 1 %. A severe Space Weather event could lead to global economic damages of the same order as other weather disasters, climate change, and extreme financial crisis.

Space Weather and the State of Cardiovascular System of a Healthy Human Being

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsonov, S. N.; Manykina, V. I.; Krymsky, G. F.; Petrova, P. G.; Palshina, A. M.; Vishnevsky, V. V.

The term "space weather" characterizes a state of the near-Earth environmental space. An organism of human being represents an open system so the change of conditions in the environment including the near-Earth environmental space influences the health state of a human being.In recent years many works devoted to the effect of space weather on the life on the Earth, and the degree of such effect has been represented from a zero-order up to apocalypse. To reveal a real effect of space weather on the health of human being the international Russian- Ukrainian experiment "Geliomed" is carried out since 2005 (http://geliomed.immsp.kiev.ua) [Vishnevsky et al., 2009]. The analysis of observational set of data has allowed to show a synchronism and globality of such effect (simultaneous manifestation of space weather parameters in a state of cardiovascular system of volunteer groups removed from each other at a distance over 6000 km). The response of volunteer' cardiovascular system to the changes of space weather parameters were observed even at insignificant values of the Earth's geomagnetic field. But even at very considerable disturbances of space weather parameters a human being healthy did not feel painful symptoms though measurements of objective physiological indices showed their changes.

Space Weathering of the Lunar Surface by Solar Wind Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sungsoo S.; Sim, Chaekyung

2017-08-01

The lunar regolith is space-weathered to a different degree in response to the different fluxes of incident solar wind particles and micrometeoroids. Crater walls, among other slating surfaces, are good tracers of the space-weathering process because they mature differently depending on the varying incident angles of weathering agents. We divide a crater wall into four quadrants (north, south, east, and west) and analyze the distribution of 950-nm/750-nm reflectance-ratio and 750-nm reflectance values in each wall quadrant, using the topography-corrected images by Multispectral Imager (MI) onboard SELENE (Kaguya). For thousands of impact craters across the Moon, we interpret the spectral distributions in the four wall quadrants in terms of the space weathering by solar wind particles and micrometeoroids and of gardening by meteroids. We take into account the solar-wind shielding by the Earth’s magnetotail to correctly assess the different spectral behaviors between east- and west-facing walls of the craters in the near-side of the Moon.

ESA SSA Programme in support of Space Weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luntama, J.; Glover, A.; Hilgers, A. M.

2010-12-01

In 2009 European Space Agency (ESA) started a new programme called Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme. The objective of the programme is to support the European independent utilisation of and access to space research or services. This will be performed through providing timely and quality data, information, services and knowledge regarding the environment, the threats and the sustainable exploitation of the outer space surrounding the planet Earth. SSA serves the implementation of the strategic missions of the European Space Policy based on the peaceful uses of the outer space by all states, by supporting the autonomous capacity to securely and safely operate the critical European space infrastructures. The SSA Preparatory Program will establish the initial elements that will eventually lead into the full deployment of the European SSA services. The SWE Segment of the SSA will provide user services related to the monitoring of the Sun, the solar wind, the radiation belts, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. These services will include near real time information and forecasts about the characteristics of the space environment and predictions of space weather impacts on sensitive spaceborne and ground based infrastructure. The SSA SWE system will also include establishment of a permanent database for analysis, model development and scientific research. These services are will support a wide variety of user domains including spacecraft designers, spacecraft operators, human space flights, users and operators of transionospheric radio links, and space weather research community. The precursor SWE services to be established starting in 2010 will include a selected subset of these services based on pre-existing space weather applications and services in Europe. This paper will present the key characteristics of the SSA SWE system that is currently being designed. The presentation will focus on the system characteristics that support space weather

The scientific challenges to forecasting and nowcasting the magnetospheric response to space weather (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Birn, J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.

2013-12-01

Space weather is different from terrestrial weather in an essential way. Terrestrial weather has benefitted from a long history of research, which has led to a deep and detailed level of understanding. In comparison, space weather is scientifically in its infancy. Many key processes in the causal chains from processes on the Sun to space weather effects in various locations in the heliosphere remain either poorly understood or not understood at all. Space weather is therefore, and will remain in the foreseeable future, primarily a research field. Extensive further research efforts are needed before we can reasonably expect the precision and fidelity of weather forecasts. For space weather within the Earth's magnetosphere, the coupling between solar wind and magnetosphere is of crucial importance. While past research has provided answers, often on qualitative levels, to some of the most fundamental questions, answers to some of the latter and the ability to predict quantitatively remain elusive. This presentation will provide an overview of pertinent aspects of solar wind-magnetospheric coupling, its importance for space weather near the Earth, and it will analyze the state of our ability to describe and predict its efficiency. It will conclude with a discussion of research activities, which are aimed at improving our ability to quantitatively forecast coupling processes.

Space Weather Model Testing And Validation At The Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Falasca, A.; Keller, K.; Reitan, P.

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partner- ship aimed at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to undertake the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to pro- vide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of NASA's Living With aStar initiative, of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Tran- sition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and devel- opment accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate.

Space weather effects measured in atmospheric radiation on aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. K.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Didkovsky, L. V.; Judge, K.; Wieman, S. R.; Atwell, W.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Rice, D.; Schunk, R. W.; Bell, L. D.; Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Wiley, S.; Teets, E.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.; Jones, J. B. L.; Crowley, G.; Azeem, S. I.; Halford, A. J.

2016-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the domains that are affected by space weather, the coupling between the solar and galactic high-energy particles, the magnetosphere, and atmospheric regions can significantly affect humans and our technology as a result of radiation exposure. Since 2013 Space Environment Technologies (SET) has been conducting observations of the atmospheric radiation environment at aviation altitudes using a small fleet of six instruments. The objective of this work is to improve radiation risk management in air traffic operations. Under the auspices of the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) and Upper-atmospheric Space and Earth Weather eXperiment (USEWX) projects our team is making dose rate measurements on multiple aircraft flying global routes. Over 174 ARMAS and USEWX flights have successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on commercial aviation altitude aircraft that captures the radiation environment resulting from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs), Solar Energetic Protons (SEPs), and outer radiation belt energetic electrons. The real-time radiation exposure is measured as an absorbed dose rate in silicon and then computed as an ambient dose equivalent rate for reporting dose relevant to radiative-sensitive organs and tissue in units of microsieverts per hour. ARMAS total ionizing absorbed dose is captured on the aircraft, downlinked in real-time, processed on the ground into ambient dose equivalent rates, compared with NASA's Langley Research Center (LaRC) most recent Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) global radiation climatology model runs, and then made available to end users. Dose rates from flight altitudes up to 56,700 ft. are shown for flights across the planet under a variety of space weather conditions. We discuss several space weather

Activity of Science and Operational Research of NICT Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, Mamoru; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Tsugawa, Takuya; Kubo, Yuki

Operational space weather forecast is for contribution to social infrastructure than for academic interests. These user need will determine the target of research, e.g., the precision level, spatial and temporal resolution and/or required lead time. We, NICT, aim two target in the present mid-term strategic plan, which are (1) forecast of ionospheric disturbance influencing to satellite positioning, and (2) forecast of disturbance in radiation belt influencing to satellite operation. We have our own observation network and develop empirical and numerical models for achieving each target. However in actual situation, it is much difficult to know the user needs quantitatively. Most of space weather phenomena makes the performance of social infrastructure poor, for example disconnect of HF communication, increase of GNSS error. Most of organizations related to these operation are negative to open these information. We have personal interviews to solve this issue. In this interview, we try to collect incident information related to space weather in each field, and to retrieve which space weather information is necessary for users. In this presentation we will introduce our research and corresponding new service, in addition to our recent scientific results.

Challenges for Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, James

2013-01-01

Effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. The effort to transition scientific knowledge to a useful application is not a research nor is it operations, but an activity that connects two. Successful transitioning must be an intentional effort with a clear goal and measureable outcome. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Planetary Space Weather Service: Part of the the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas

2016-07-01

Over the next four years the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure will set up an entirely new European Planetary Space Weather service (PSWS). Europlanet RI is a part of of Horizon 2020 (EPN2020-RI, http://www.europlanet-2020-ri.eu). The Virtual Access Service, WP5 VA1 "Planetary Space Weather Services" will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. VA1 will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: a general planetary space weather toolkit, as well as three toolkits dedicated to the following key planetary environments: Mars (in support ExoMars), comets (building on the expected success of the ESA Rosetta mission), and outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUICE mission to be launched in 2022). This will give the European planetary science community new methods, interfaces, functionalities and/or plugins dedicated to planetary space weather in the tools and models available within the partner institutes. It will also create a novel event-diary toolkit aiming at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor showers and impacts. A variety of tools (in the form of web applications, standalone software, or numerical models in various degrees of implementation) are available for tracing propagation of planetary and/or solar events through the Solar System and modelling the response of the planetary environment (surfaces, atmospheres, ionospheres, and magnetospheres) to those events. But these tools were not originally designed for planetary event prediction and space weather applications. So WP10 JRA4 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) will provide the additional research and tailoring required to apply them for these purposes. The overall objectives of this Joint Research Aactivities will be to review, test, improve and adapt methods and tools

International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Joseph M.; Gopalswamy, Nat; Thompson, Barbara

2009-01-01

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY), an international program of scientific collaboration to understand the external drivers of planetary environments, has come to an end. The IHY was a major international event of great interest to the member States, which involved the deployment of new instrumentation, new observations from the ground and in space, and an education component. We propose to continue the highly successful collaboration between the heliophysics science community and the United Nations Basic Space Science (UNBSS) program. One of the major thrust of the IHY was to deploy arrays of small instruments such as magnetometers, radio antennas, GPS receivers, all-sky cameras, particle detectors, etc. around the world to provide global measurements of heliospheric phenomena. The United Nations Basic Space Science Initiative (UNBSSI) played a major role in this effort. Scientific teams were organized through UNBSS, which consisted of a lead scientist who provided the instruments or fabrication plans for instruments in the array. As a result of the this program, scientists from UNBSS member states now participate in the instrument operation, data collection, analysis, and publication of scientific results, working at the forefront of science research. As part of this project, support for local scientists, facilities and data acquisition is provided by the host nation. In addition, support at the Government level is provided for local scientists to participate. Building on momentum of the IHY, we propose to continue the highly successful collaboration with the UNBSS program to continue the study of universal processes in the solar system that affect the interplanetary and terrestrial environments, and to continue to coordinate the deployment and operation of new and existing instrument arrays aimed at understanding the impacts of Space Weather on Earth and the near-Earth environment. Toward this end, we propose a new program, the International Space

International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Joseph; Gopalswamy, Nathanial; Thompson, Barbara

2010-01-01

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY), an international program of scientific collaboration to understand the external drivers of planetary environments, has come to an end. The IHY was a major international event of great interest to the member States, which involved the deployment of new instrumentation, new observations from the ground and in space, and an education component. We propose to continue the highly successful collaboration between the heliophysics science community and the United Nations Basic Space Science (UNBSS) program. One of the major thrust of the IHY was to deploy arrays of small instruments such as magnetometers, radio antennas, GPS receivers, all-sky cameras, particle detectors, etc. around the world to provide global measurements of heliospheric phenomena. The United Nations Basic Space Science Initiative (UNBSSI) played a major role in this effort. Scientific teams were organized through UNBSS, which consisted of a lead scientist who provided the instruments or fabrication plans for instruments in the array. As a result of the this program, scientists from UNBSS member states now participate in the instrument operation, data collection, analysis, and publication of scientific results, working at the forefront of science research. As part of this project, support for local scientists, facilities and data acquisition is provided by the host nation. In addition, support at the Government level is provided for local scientists to participate. Building on momentum of the IHY, we propose to continue the highly successful collaboration with the UNBSS program to continue the study of universal processes in the solar system that affect the interplanetary and terrestrial environments, and to continue to coordinate the deployment and operation of new and existing instrument arrays aimed at understanding the impacts of Space Weather on Earth and the near-Earth environment. Toward this end, we propose a new program, the International Space

The Effects of Space Weathering at UV Wavelengths: S-Class Asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendrix, Amanda R.; Vilas, Faith

2006-01-01

We present evidence that space weathering manifests itself at near-UV wavelengths as a bluing of the spectrum, in contrast with the spectral reddening that has been seen at visible-near-IR wavelengths. Furthermore, the effects of space weathering at UV wavelengths tend to appear with less weathering than do the longer wavelength effects, suggesting that the UV wavelength range is a more sensitive indicator of weathering, and thus age. We report results from analysis of existing near-UV (approx.220-350 nm) measurements of S-type asteroids from the International Ultraviolet Explorer and the Hubble Space Telescope and comparisons with laboratory measurements of meteorites to support this hypothesis. Composite spectra of S asteroids are produced by combining UV spacecraft data with ground-based longer wavelength data. At visible-near-IR wavelengths, S-type asteroids are generally spectrally redder (and darker) than ordinary chondrite meteorites, whereas the opposite is generally true at near-UV wavelengths. Similarly, laboratory measurements of lunar samples show that lunar soils (presumably more weathered) are spectrally redder at longer wavelengths, and spectrally bluer at near-UV wavelengths, than less weathered crushed lunar rocks. The UV spectral bluing may be a result of the addition of nanophase iron to the regolith through the weathering process. The UV bluing is most prominent in the 300-400 nm range, where the strong UV absorption edge is degraded with weathering.

Aurorasaurus: Citizen Scientists Experiencing Extremes of Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, E.; Hall, M.; Tapia, A.

2013-12-01

Aurorasaurus is a new citizen science mapping platform to nowcast the visibility of the Northern Lights for the public in the current solar maximum, the first with social media. As a recently funded NSF INSPIRE program, we have joint goals among three research disciplines: space weather forecasting, the study of human-computer interactions, and informal science education. We will highlight results from the prototype www.aurorasaurus.org and outline future efforts to motivate online participants and crowdsource viable data. Our citizen science effort is unique among space programs as it includes both reporting observations and data analysis activities to engage the broadest participant network possible. In addition, our efforts to improve space weather nowcasting by including real-time mapping of ground truth observers for rare, sporadic events are a first in the field.

[Space Weather Impact on the Electricity Market

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

SaintCyr, O. Chris

2007-01-01

Forbes & St. Cyr (2004, hereafter "FISC") have provided evidence that the electricity market can be impacted by space weather. Our analysis indicated that the estimated market impact for PJM was 3.7 % or approximately $500 million dollars over the 19 month sample period. Kappenman has taken exception to this estimate and contends that we have exaggerated the magnitude of the problem that space weather poses to PJM. There are four specific issues: (1) he claims that we have ignored relevant literature; (2) he asserts that Dst is not an appropriate proxy for GICs in PJM; (3) he charges that our findings are inconsistent with the impact of the 17 September 2000 storm; and (4) he alleges that our discussion of October 2003 storms is misleading. In our article, we have explained our methodology, multivariate regression analysis, with a particular focus on how it compares to correlation analysis. We have also explained the limitations of our analysis. We noted that "...While the Dstlprice relationship was found to be robust, the precise estimate should be treated with a relatively high degree of caution given that econometric modeling is not an exact science as well as the fact that the measure of space weather may be a poor proxy for GICs" (paragraph 96). We have also noted that additional research using local magnetometer data are needed (paragraph 97). We did not claim that that our findings for PJM are representative of the impact of space weather on other power grids. On the contrary, we noted that ... "Only analysis of other power grids will tell. " (paragraph 97). Kappenman inaccurately asserts that we have indicated that our findings . . . "imply much higher total costs are likely across the US and elsewhere in the world." He also inaccurately asserts that we have claimed that " . . . Dst is the most suited proxy for GIC in the PJM grid.. ." Moreover, he inaccurately refers to our analysis as a correlation study that uses Dst as quasi-binary indicator.

Space Weathering Effects at UV Wavelengths: Asteroids and the Moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrix, Amanda; Vilas, F.

2006-09-01

Space weathering, the bombardment of airless bodies by micrometeoroids and irradiation by solar wind particles, affects spectra of solar system bodies at visible/near IR (VNIR) wavelengths by darkening and reddening their surface materials, as well as degrading absorption features. We present new results detailing space weathering effects at ultraviolet wavelengths. We focus on new spectral modeling results, and also present spacecraft data of asteroids and the Moon, along with new UV measurements of asteroid families from HST, to demonstrate the effects of varying degrees of weathering and the outcome of weathering on surfaces of different compositions. Weathered surfaces are relatively bright and spectrally blue in the UV; these UV effects can be more obvious than the VNIR effects. The cause of these weathering effects is likely vapor deposition of submicroscopic iron (SMFe), through solar wind irradiation and micrometeoroid bombardment of the bodies' surfaces. In silicate minerals, the NUV region is dominated by a decrease in reflectance with wavelength - the "UV absorption edge.” In contrast to silicates, iron is opaque and relatively bright in the UV, so the addition of SMFe to a silicate grains has the effect of making the UV region brighter; this is in opposition to the situation at longer wavelengths, where the addition of SMFe decreases the albedo. Our spectral modeling results show that the addition of SMFe decreases the steepness of the UV dropoff, in effect making the UV spectrum bluer. This can explain the difference in UV spectral behavior seen between S-class asteroids and less-weathered ordinary chondrite meteorites, and between lunar rocks and more weathered lunar soils. This work is funded in part by Hubble Space Telescope Grant #10557.

Mitigating Aviation Communication and Satellite Orbit Operations Surprises from Adverse Space Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tobiska, W. Kent

2008-01-01

Adverse space weather affects operational activities in aviation and satellite systems. For example, large solar flares create highly variable enhanced neutral atmosphere and ionosphere electron density regions. These regions impact aviation communication frequencies as well as precision orbit determination. The natural space environment, with its dynamic space weather variability, is additionally changed by human activity. The increase in orbital debris in low Earth orbit (LEO), combined with lower atmosphere CO2 that rises into the lower thermosphere and causes increased cooling that results in increased debris lifetime, adds to the environmental hazards of navigating in near-Earth space. This is at a time when commercial space endeavors are posed to begin more missions to LEO during the rise of the solar activity cycle toward the next maximum (2012). For satellite and aviation operators, adverse space weather results in greater expenses for orbit management, more communication outages or aviation and ground-based high frequency radio used, and an inability to effectively plan missions or service customers with space-based communication, imagery, and data transferal during time-critical activities. Examples of some revenue-impacting conditions and solutions for mitigating adverse space weather are offered.

Space Weather: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanzerotti, Louis J.

2017-11-01

A somewhat personalized overview is presented of the effects of solar-terrestrial processes on electrical technologies, beginning with the electrical telegraphs in the mid-eighteenth century to the current era of extensive ground- and space-based commercial and governmental technical systems (including national security) upon which modern society depends. As human technologies increased in diversity over the last century and a half, space weather effects have continued to be of significant importance in the successful design and operations of many of these technologies.

Overview of NASA MSFC and UAH Space Weather Modeling and Data Efforts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, Linda Neergaard

2016-01-01

Marshall Space Flight Center, along with its industry and academia neighbors, has a long history of space environment model development and testing. Space weather efforts include research, testing, model development, environment definition, anomaly investigation, and operational support. This presentation will highlight a few of the current space weather activities being performed at Marshall and through collaborative efforts with University of Alabama in Huntsville scientists.

GOES-R Space Weather Data: Products and Data Access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilton, M.; Rowland, W. F.; Codrescu, S.; Denig, W. F.; Seaton, D. B.

2016-12-01

In November 2016 NOAA launched the first in the "R" series of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R). GOES-R continues a tradition of almost 40 years of continuous space and solar observations at geostationary orbit. Compared to its predecessors, the GOES-R satellite provides improved in situ measurements of charged particle and magnetic field environments. The satellite also offers enhanced remote sensing of the sun through ultraviolet (UV) imagery and X-ray/UV irradiance. After the spacecraft completes early-orbit checkout and calibration, GOES-R space weather data and derived products will be used for operations within NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and publicly released through the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). This presentation will provide an overview of GOES-R space weather data ranging from direct measurements (L0 data) to higher level science (L2+) products developed by NCEI scientists. We will also present planned data access and distribution features. We emphasize our strategy to ensure data discoverability and accessibility, including our participation in NOAA's OneStop project and potential partnerships with NASA's Virtual Solar Observatory and projects like Helioviewer.

Strategies and Innovative Approaches for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoeksema, J. T.

2012-12-01

The real and potential impacts of space weather have been well documented, yet neither the required research and operations programs, nor the data, modeling and analysis infrastructure necessary to develop and sustain a reliable space weather forecasting capability for a society are in place. The recently published decadal survey "Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society" presents a vision for the coming decade and calls for a renewed national commitment to a comprehensive program in space weather and climatology. New resources are imperative. Particularly in the current fiscal environment, implementing a responsible strategy to address these needs will require broad participation across agencies and innovative approaches to make the most of existing resources, capitalize on current knowledge, span gaps in capabilities and observations, and focus resources on overcoming immediate roadblocks.

Notes on a Vision for the Global Space Weather Enterprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James N.

2015-07-01

Space weather phenomena impacts human civilization on a global scale and hence calls for a global approach to research, monitoring, and operational forecasting. The Global Space Weather Enterprise (GSWE) could be arranged along lines well established in existing international frameworks related to space exploration or to the use of space to benefit humanity. The Enterprise need not establish a new organization, but could evolve from existing international organizations. A GSWE employing open architectural concepts could be arranged to promote participation by all interested States regardless of current differences in science and technical capacity. Such an Enterprise would engender capacity building and burden sharing opportunities.

Prevention of Spacecraft Anomalies: The Role of Space Climate and Space Weather Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Janet L.

2003-01-01

Space-based systems are developing into critical infrastructure to support the quality of life on Earth. Mission requirements along with rapidly evolving technologies have outpaced efforts to accommodate detrimental space environment impacts on systems. This chapter describes approaches to accommodate space climate and space weather impacts on systems and notes areas where gaps in model development limit our ability to prevent spacecraft anomalies.

SHARPs - A Near-Real-Time Space Weather Data Product from HMI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobra, M.; Turmon, M.; Baldner, C.; Sun, X.; Hoeksema, J. T.

2012-12-01

A data product from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), called Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARPs), is now available through the SDO Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC) and the Virtual Solar Observatory. SHARPs are magnetically active regions identified on the solar disk and tracked automatically in time. SHARP data are processed within a few hours of the observation time. The SHARP data series contains active region-sized disambiguated vector magnetic field data in both Lambert Cylindrical Equal-Area and CCD coordinates on a 12 minute cadence. The series also provides simultaneous HMI maps of the line-of-sight magnetic field, continuum intensity, and velocity on the same ~0.5 arc-second pixel grid. In addition, the SHARP data series provides space weather quantities computed on the inverted, disambiguated, and remapped data. The values for each tracked region are computed and updated in near real time. We present space weather results for several X-class flares; furthermore, we compare said space weather quantities with helioseismic quantities calculated using ring-diagram analysis.

Using DSG to Build the Capability of Space Weather Forecasting in Deep Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLuca, E. E.; Golub, L.; Korreck, K.; Savage, S.; McKenzie, D. D.; Rachmeler, L.; Winebarger, A.; Martens, P.

2018-02-01

The prospect of astronaut missions to deep space and off the Sun-Earth line raises new challenges for space weather awareness and forecasting. We need to identify the requirements and pathways that will allow us to protect human life and equipment.

Space Weather Concerns for All-Electric Propulsion Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Richard B.; Pitchford, David

2015-08-01

The introduction of all-electric propulsion satellites is a game changer in the quest for low-cost access to space. It also raises new questions for satellite manufacturers, operators, and the insurance industry regarding the general risks and specifically the threat of adverse space weather. The issues surrounding this new concept were discussed by research scientists and up to 30 representatives from the space industry at a special meeting at the European Space Weather Week held in November 2014. Here we report on the discussions at that meeting. We show that for a satellite undergoing electric orbit raising for 200 days the radiation dose due to electrons is equivalent to approximately 6.7 year operation at geostationary orbit or approximately half the typical design life. We also show that electrons can be injected into the slot region (8000 km) where they pose a risk of satellite internal charging. The results highlight the importance of additional radiation protection. We also discuss the benefits, the operational considerations, the other risks from the Van Allen radiation belts, the new business opportunities for space insurance, and the need for space situation awareness in medium Earth orbit where electric orbit raising takes place.

Space Weather Connections to Clouds and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinsley, B. A.

2004-12-01

There is now a considerable amount of observational data and theoretical work pointing to a link between space weather and atmospheric electricity, and then between atmospheric electricity and cloud cover and precipitation, which ultimately affect climate and the biosphere. Studies so far have been largely confined to the Earth, but may be applicable to all planets with clouds in their atmospheres. The current density Jz, that is the return current flowing downward through clouds in the global circuit, is modulated by the galactic cosmic ray flux; by solar energetic particles; by the dawn-dusk polar cap potential difference; and by the precipitation of relativistic electrons from the radiation belts. The flow of Jz through clouds generates unipolar space charge, which is positive at cloud tops and negative at cloud base. This charge attaches to aerosol particles, and affects their interaction with other particles and droplets. Ultrafine aerosol particles are formed around ions and are preserved from scavenging on background aerosols, and preserved for growth by vapor deposition, by space charge at the bases and tops of layer clouds. There is electro-preservation of both ultrafines and of existing CCN that leads to increases in CCN concentration, and increases in cloud cover and reduction in both droplet size and precipitation by the `indirect aerosol effect'. For cold clouds and larger aerosol particles that act as ice forming nuclei, the rate of scavenging of the IFN by large supercooled droplets varies with space charge. Changes in space weather affect both ion production and Jz in planetary atmospheres. In addition, changes in cosmic ray flux affect conductivity within thunderclouds and may affect the output of the thundercloud generators in the global circuit. Thus all four processes, (a) ion-induced nucleation, (b) electro-preservation of leading to increases in CCN concentration and the indirect aerosol effect, (c) contact ice nucleation affecting the

Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report - Extended Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2009-01-01

The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D

Challenges in Heliophysics and Space Weather: What Instrumentation for the Future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guhathakurta, Madhulika

A hundred years ago, the sun-Earth connection (the field of heliophysics research and space weather impacts) was of interest to only a small number of scientists. Solar activity had little effect on daily life. Today, a single strong solar flare could bring civilization to its knees. Modern society has come to depend on technologies sensitive to solar radiation and geomagnetic storms. Particularly vulnerable are intercontinental power grids, interplanetary robotic and human exploration, satellite operations and communications, and GPS navigation. These technologies are woven into the fabric of daily life, from health care and finance to basic utilities. Both short- and long-term forecasting models are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of solar storms and to anticipate their collective impact on aviation, astronaut safety, terrestrial climate and others. Even during a relatively weak solar maximum, the potential consequences that such events can have on society are too important to ignore. The challenges associated with space weather affect all developed and developing countries. Work on space weather specification, modeling, and forecasting has great societal benefit: It is basic research with a high public purpose. At present, we have a fleet “Heliophysics System Observatory” of dedicated spacecraft titled (e.g. SOHO, STEREO, SDO, ACE), and serendipitous resources contributing data for space weather modeling from both remote observations of the sun and in-situ measurements to provide sparse space weather situational awareness which were mostly built for a 2-3 year lifetime and are wearing out and won’t be around for very long. Missions currently in formulation will significantly enhance the capability of physics-based models that are used to understand and predict the impact of the variable sun. To enhance current models, and make them effective in predicting space weather throughout the solar system, we need a distributed network of spacecraft

Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) for Space Shuttle Launch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bardina, Jorge E.; Rajkumar, T.

2003-01-01

The Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) is a critical module of the Virtual Test Bed development to support 'go/no go' decisions for Space Shuttle operations in the Intelligent Launch and Range Operations program of NASA. The weather rules characterize certain aspects of the environment related to the launching or landing site, the time of the day or night, the pad or runway conditions, the mission durations, the runway equipment and landing type. Expert system rules are derived from weather contingency rules, which were developed over years by NASA. Backward chaining, a goal-directed inference method is adopted, because a particular consequence or goal clause is evaluated first, and then chained backward through the rules. Once a rule is satisfied or true, then that particular rule is fired and the decision is expressed. The expert system is continuously verifying the rules against the past one-hour weather conditions and the decisions are made. The normal procedure of operations requires a formal pre-launch weather briefing held on Launch minus 1 day, which is a specific weather briefing for all areas of Space Shuttle launch operations. In this paper, the Web-based Weather Expert System of the Intelligent Launch and range Operations program is presented.

Creating Interactive Graphical Overlays in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) Using Shapefiles and DGM Files

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Joe H., III; Lafosse, Richard; Hood, Doris; Hoeth, Brian

2007-01-01

Graphical overlays can be created in real-time in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) using shapefiles or DARE Graphics Metafile (DGM) files. This presentation describes how to create graphical overlays on-the-fly for AWIPS, by using two examples of AWIPS applications that were created by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU). The first example is the Anvil Threat Corridor Forecast Tool, which produces a shapefile that depicts a graphical threat corridor of the forecast movement of thunderstorm anvil clouds, based on the observed or forecast upper-level winds. This tool is used by the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) and 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to analyze the threat of natural or space vehicle-triggered lightning over a location. The second example is a launch and landing trajectory tool that produces a DGM file that plots the ground track of space vehicles during launch or landing. The trajectory tool can be used by SMG and the 45 WS forecasters to analyze weather radar imagery along a launch or landing trajectory. Advantages of both file types will be listed.

GOES-R Space Weather Data: Achieving User Ready Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, W. F.; Tilton, M.; Redmon, R. J.; Goodman, S. J.; Comerford, M.

2017-12-01

Forecasters and the science community will rely on improved Space Weather products from the next generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R Series) for decades to come. Many issues must be successfully addressed in order to produce useful products. The instruments themselves and their basic scientific measurements (Level 1b data, i.e. L1b) must be calibrated and validated. Algorithms must be created to transform L1b into the specific environmental parameters that are of interest to forecasters and the community (Level 2+, i.e. L2+). In the case of Space Weather data, because the L2+ products are not generated within the core GOES-R Ground Segment, a separate system had to be developed in order to implement the L2+ products. Finally, the products must be made available to real time and retrospective users, as well as preserved for future generations. We give an overview of the path to production of the GOES-R Space Weather products, and the role of the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in this process.

Pulsed-Laser Irradiation Space Weathering Of A Carbonaceous Chondrite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, M. S.; Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Loeffler, M. J.; Morris, R. V.; Graff, T. G.; Rahman, Z.

2017-01-01

Grains on the surfaces of airless bodies experience irradiation from solar energetic particles and melting, vaporization and recondensation processes associated with micrometeorite impacts. Collectively, these processes are known as space weathering and they affect the spectral properties, composition, and microstructure of material on the surfaces of airless bodies, e.g. Recent efforts have focused on space weathering of carbonaceous materials which will be critical for interpreting results from the OSIRIS-REx and Hayabusa2 missions targeting primitive, organic-rich asteroids. In addition to returned sample analyses, space weathering processes are quantified through laboratory experiments. For example, the short-duration thermal pulse from hypervelocity micrometeorite impacts have been simulated using pulsed-laser irradiation of target material e.g. Recent work however, has shown that pulsed-laser irradiation has variable effects on the spectral properties and microstructure of carbonaceous chondrite samples. Here we investigate the spectral characteristics of pulsed-laser irradiated CM2 carbonaceous chondrite, Murchison, including the vaporized component. We also report the chemical and structural characteristics of specific mineral phases within the meteorite as a result of pulsed-laser irradiation.

Space Weathering in the Thermal Infrared: Lessons from LRO Diviner and Next Steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenhagen, B. T.; Lucey, P. G.; Glotch, T. D.; Arnold, J. A.; Bowles, N. E.; Donaldson Hanna, K. L.; Shirley, K. A.

2018-04-01

Global data from the LRO Diviner show that the thermal infrared is affected by space weathering. We will present and discuss hypotheses for the unanticipated space weathering dependence and next steps.

Weather Information Processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

The discovery of silicon oxide nanoparticles in space-weathered of Apollo 15 lunar soil grains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Lixin; Zhang, Bin; Hu, Sen; Noguchi, Takaaki; Hidaka, Hiroshi; Lin, Yangting

2018-03-01

Space weathering is an important process on the Moon and other airless celestial bodies. The most common space weathering effects are amorphization of the top surface of soil grains and formation of nanophase iron particles (npFe) within the partially amorphous rims. Hence, space weathering significantly affects optical properties of the surface of the Moon and other airless celestial bodies. Transmission electron microscope (TEM) analysis of Apollo 15 soil grains displays npFe (≤5 nm in size) embedded in the space-weathered rim (∼60 nm in thickness) of a pyroxene grain, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, submicron-sized fragments that adhere to the pyroxene grain show distinct space weathering features. Silicon oxide nanoparticles (npSiOx) were observed with npFe in a submicron-sized Mg-Fe silicate fragment. This is the first discovery of npSiOx as a product of space weathering. The npSiOx and the coexisting npFe are ∼10-25 nm in size, significantly larger than the typical npFe in the space weathered rim of the pyroxene grain. The coexisting npSiOx and npFe were probably formed directly in micrometeorite shock-induced melt, instead of in a solar-wind generated vapor deposit or irradiated rim. This new observation will shed light on space weathering processes on the Moon and airless celestial bodies.

Facts and Suggestions from a Brief History of the Galilean Moons and Space Weathering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, John

2010-05-01

energetic enough to change isotopic ratios in the affected surface materials. The sputtered materials partially escape either directly to the magnetosphere or indirectly through exospheric losses, so these additionally contribute at trace levels to the magnetospheric interconnections of surface composition for all the moons. In order to determine the intrinsic composition of the moons from EJSM surface and exospheric measurements, we must first peel back the surficial patina of space weathering products. Conversely, future measurements of the magnetospheric ion composition at high resolution in elemental and significant isotopic abundances, including as products of space weathering on the moon surfaces, can be projected back to the Io source for huge advancements of our knowledge on the origins of Io volcanism and more generally of the Jupiter system. These are some of the relevant facts for space weathering from 400 years of Jupiter system exploration, the main suggestion is that one the highest returns on international investments in the EJSM mission would be from advancement of capabilities for in-situ sample analysis in the magnetosphere and from moon surfaces to cover the full range of elements and key isotopes. Modest investments in appropriate technologies for ion and neutral gas measurements to this level would be insignificant in cost as compared to Earth sample return. This suggestion was submitted by Cooper et al. [4] to the ongoing decadal survey of planetary science and mission priorities in the United States. References: [1] Stebbins, J., Publ. Astron. Soc. Pacific 38 (225), 321-322, 1926; [2] Burke, B.F., and K. L. Franklin, J. Geophys. Res. 60, 213-217, 1955. [3] Morabito, L. A., et al., Science 204, 972, 1979; [4] Cooper, J. F., and 21 Co-authors, Space Weathering Impact on Solar System Surfaces and Mission Science, Community White Paper submitted to Planetary Science Decadal Survey, 2013--2022. National Research Council, Washington, D.C., Sept. 15, 2009.

Space Weather: The Solar Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwenn, Rainer

2006-08-01

The term space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and that can affect human life and health. Our modern hi-tech society has become increasingly vulnerable to disturbances from outside the Earth system, in particular to those initiated by explosive events on the Sun: Flares release flashes of radiation that can heat up the terrestrial atmosphere such that satellites are slowed down and drop into lower orbits, solar energetic particles accelerated to near-relativistic energies may endanger astronauts traveling through interplanetary space, and coronal mass ejections are gigantic clouds of ionized gas ejected into interplanetary space that after a few hours or days may hit the Earth and cause geomagnetic storms. In this review, I describe the several chains of actions originating in our parent star, the Sun, that affect Earth, with particular attention to the solar phenomena and the subsequent effects in interplanetary space.

Space weathering of small Koronis family members

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Cristina A.; Rivkin, Andrew S.; Trilling, David E.; Enga, Marie-therese; Grier, Jennifer A.

2011-03-01

The space weathering process and its implications for the relationships between S- and Q-type asteroids and ordinary chondrite meteorites is an often debated topic in asteroid science. Q-type asteroids have been shown to display the best spectral match to ordinary chondrites (McFadden, L.A., Gaffey, M.J., McCord, T.B. [1985]. Science 229, 160-163). While the Q-types and ordinary chondrites share some spectral features with S-type asteroids, the S-types have significantly redder spectral slopes than the Q-types in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. This reddening of spectral slope is attributed to the effects of space weathering on the observed surface composition. The analysis by Binzel et al. (Binzel, R.P., Rivkin, A.S., Stuart, J.S., Harris, A.W., Bus, S.J., Burbine, T.H. [2004]. Icarus 170, 259-294) provided a missing link between the Q- and S-type bodies in near-Earth space by showing a reddening of spectral slope in objects from 0.1 to 5 km that corresponded to a transition from Q-type to S-type asteroid spectra, implying that size, and therefore surface age, is related to the relationship between S- and Q-types. The existence of Q-type asteroids in the main-belt was not confirmed until Mothé-Diniz and Nesvorny (Mothé-Diniz, T., Nesvorny, D. [2008]. Astron. Astrophys. 486, L9-L12) found them in young S-type clusters. The young age of these families suggest that the unweathered surface could date to the formation of the family. This leads to the question of whether older S-type main-belt families can contain Q-type objects and display evidence of a transition from Q- to S-type. To answer this question we have carried out a photometric survey of the Koronis family using the Kitt Peak 2.1 m telescope. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the effects of the space weathering process on potentially ordinary chondrite-like bodies within a population of identical initial conditions. We find a trend in spectral slope for objects 1-5 km that shows the

The USGS geomagnetism program and its role in space weather monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Finn, Carol A.

2011-01-01

Magnetic storms result from the dynamic interaction of the solar wind with the coupled magnetospheric-ionospheric system. Large storms represent a potential hazard for the activities and infrastructure of a modern, technologically based society [Baker et al., 2008]; they can cause the loss of radio communications, reduce the accuracy of global positioning systems, damage satellite electronics and affect satellite operations, increase pipeline corrosion, and induce voltage surges in electric power grids, causing blackouts. So while space weather starts with the Sun and is driven by the solar wind, it is on, or just above, the surface of the Earth that the practical effects of space weather are realized. Therefore, ground-based sensor networks, including magnetic observatories [Love, 2008], play an important role in space weather monitoring.

The USGS Geomagnetism Program and its role in Space-Weather Monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Finn, Carol A.

2011-01-01

Magnetic storms result from the dynamic interaction of the solar wind with the coupled magnetospheric-ionospheric system. Large storms represent a potential hazard for the activities and infrastructure of a modern, technologically based society [Baker et al., 2008]; they can cause the loss of radio communications, reduce the accuracy of global positioning systems, damage satellite electronics and affect satellite operations, increase pipeline corrosion, and induce voltage surges in electric power grids, causing blackouts. So while space weather starts with the Sun and is driven by the solar wind, it is on, or just above, the surface of the Earth that the practical effects of space weather are realized. Therefore, ground-based sensor networks, including magnetic observatories [Love, 2008], play an important role in space weather monitoring.

AMS-02 as a Space Weather Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitman, K.; Bindi, V.; Chati, M.; Consolandi, C.; Corti, C.

2013-12-01

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) is a state-of-the-art space detector that measures particles in the energy range of hundreds of MeV to a few TeV. AMS-02 has been installed onboard of the International Space Station (ISS) since May 2011 where it will operate for the duration of the station. To date, there is an abundance of space-based solar data collected in the low energy regimes, whereas there are very few direct measurements of higher energy particles available. AMS-02 is capable of measuring arrival time and composition of the highest energy SEPs in space. It is crucial to build a better knowledge base regarding the most energetic and potentially harmful events. We are currently developing a program to employ AMS-02 as a real-time space weather observatory. SEPs with higher energies are usually accelerated during a short period of time and they are the first particles to reach the Earth. AMS-02, measuring these highest energy SEPs, can alert the onset of an SEP event. During the past two years of operation, we have identified two main quantities in AMS-02 that are particularly sensitive to the arrival of SEPs: the detector livetime and the transition radiation detector (TRD) event size. By monitoring the detector livetime and the TRD event size, AMS-02 can pinpoint in real-time the arrival of SEPs inside the Earth's magnetosphere operating as a space weather detector.

Tethered Satellites as Enabling Platforms for an Operational Space Weather Monitoring System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krause, L. Habash; Gilchrist, B. E.; Bilen, S.; Owens, J.; Voronka, N.; Furhop, K.

2013-01-01

Space weather nowcasting and forecasting models require assimilation of near-real time (NRT) space environment data to improve the precision and accuracy of operational products. Typically, these models begin with a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g. via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative physics-based forward-prediction calculations. The issue of required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models is a complex one, and we do not address that with this poster. Instead, we present some examples of how tethered satellites can be used to address the shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include very long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements will be presented for each space weather parameter considered in this study.

Approach to Integrate Global-Sun Models of Magnetic Flux Emergence and Transport for Space Weather Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A.; Mehrotra, Piyush; Henney, Carl; Arge, Nick; Godinez, H.; Manchester, Ward; Koller, J.; Kosovichev, A.; Scherrer, P.;

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

2009-01-01

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

A Comparison of Atmospheric Quantities Determined from Advanced WVR and Weather Analysis Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morabito, D.; Wu, L.; Slobin, S.

2017-05-01

Lower frequency bands used for deep space communications (e.g., 2.3 GHz and 8.4 GHz) are oversubscribed. Thus, NASA has become interested in using higher frequency bands (e.g., 26 GHz and 32 GHz) for telemetry, making use of the available wider bandwidth. However, these bands are more susceptible to atmospheric degradation. Currently, flight projects tend to be conservative in preparing their communications links by using worst-case or conservative assumptions, which result in nonoptimum data return. We previously explored the use of weather forecasting over different weather condition scenarios to determine more optimal values of atmospheric attenuation and atmospheric noise temperature for use in telecommunications link design. In this article, we present the results of a comparison of meteorological parameters (columnar water vapor and liquid water content) estimated from multifrequency Advanced Water Vapor Radiometer (AWVR) data with those estimated from weather analysis tools (FNL). We find that for the Deep Space Network's Goldstone and Madrid tracking sites, the statistics are in reasonable agreement between the two methods. We can then use the statistics of these quantities based on FNL runs to estimate statistics of atmospheric signal degradation for tracking sites that do not have the benefit of possessing multiyear WVR data sets, such as those of the NASA Near-Earth Network (NEN). The resulting statistics of atmospheric attenuation and atmospheric noise temperature increase can then be used in link budget calculations.

Investigating the feasibility of Visualising Complex Space Weather Data in a CAVE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loughlin, S.; Habash Krause, L.

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of visualising complex space weather data in a Cave Automatic Virtual Environment (CAVE). Space weather is increasingly causing disruptions on Earth, such as power outages and disrupting communication to satellites. We wanted to display this space weather data within the CAVE since the data from instruments, models and simulations are typically too complex to understand on their own, especially when they are of 7 dimensions. To accomplish this, I created a VTK to NetCDF converter. NetCDF is a science data format, which stores array oriented scientific data. The format is maintained by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, and is used extensively by the atmospheric and space communities.

Kameleon Live: An Interactive Cloud Based Analysis and Visualization Platform for Space Weather Researchers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pembroke, A. D.; Colbert, J. A.

2015-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) provides hosting for many of the simulations used by the space weather community of scientists, educators, and forecasters. CCMC users may submit model runs through the Runs on Request system, which produces static visualizations of model output in the browser, while further analysis may be performed off-line via Kameleon, CCMC's cross-language access and interpolation library. Off-line analysis may be suitable for power-users, but storage and coding requirements present a barrier to entry for non-experts. Moreover, a lack of a consistent framework for analysis hinders reproducibility of scientific findings. To that end, we have developed Kameleon Live, a cloud based interactive analysis and visualization platform. Kameleon Live allows users to create scientific studies built around selected runs from the Runs on Request database, perform analysis on those runs, collaborate with other users, and disseminate their findings among the space weather community. In addition to showcasing these novel collaborative analysis features, we invite feedback from CCMC users as we seek to advance and improve on the new platform.

Upper-atmospheric Space and Earth Weather eXperiment (USEWX)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiley, Scott Lee

2014-01-01

This presentation is an update from the 2011 and 2012 talks given to Teachers in Space. These slides include some recent space weather issues that are hot topics, including the adding our USEWX and USEWX partners, and information relevant to GSFC researchers.

Space Weathering Investigations Enabled by NASA's Virtual Heliophysical Observatories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, John F.; King, Joseph H.; Papitashvili, Natalia E.; Lal, Nand; Sittler, Edward C.; Sturner, Steven J.; Hills, Howard K.; Lipatov, Alexander S.; Kovalick, Tamara J.; Johnson, Rita C.;

An Examination of the Space Weathering Patina of Lunar Rock 76015

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noble, S.; Chrisoffersen, R.; Rahman, Z.

2011-01-01

Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. Rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain and thus record a longer history of exposure. By studying the weathering products which have built up on a rock surface, we can gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative importance of various weathering components. The weathered coating, or patina, of the lunar rock 76015 has been previously studied under SEM and also by TEM using ultramicrotome sample preparation methods. However, to really understand the products involved in creating these coatings, it is helpful to examine the patina in cross section, something which is now possible though the use of Focused Ion Beam (FIB) sample prep techniques, which allows us to preserve intact the delicate stratigraphy of the patina coating and provides a unique cross-sectional view of the space weathering process. Several samples have been prepared from the rock and the coatings are found to be quite variable in thickness and composition from one sample to the next.

National Space Weather Program Releases Strategy for the New Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.

2010-12-01

The National Space Weather Program (NSWP; http://www.nswp.gov) is a U.S. federal government interagency program established by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) in 1995 to coordinate, collaborate, and leverage capabilities across stakeholder agencies, including space weather researchers, service providers, users, policy makers, and funding agencies, to improve the performance of the space weather enterprise for the United States and its international partners. Two important documents released in recent months have established a framework and the vision, goals, and strategy to move the enterprise forward in the next decade. The U.S. federal agency members of the NSWP include the departments of Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, State, and Transportation, plus NASA, the National Science Foundation, and observers from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The OFCM is also working with the Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency to formally join the program.

Space Weathering in Houston: A Role for the Experimental Impact Laboratory at JSC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cintala, M. J.; Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Hoerz, F.

2015-01-01

The effective investigation of space weathering demands an interdisciplinary approach that is at least as diversified as any other in planetary science. Because it is a macroscopic process affecting all bodies in the solar system, impact and its resulting shock effects must be given detailed attention in this regard. Direct observation of the effects of impact is most readily done for the Moon, but it still remains difficult for other bodies in the solar system. Analyses of meteorites and precious returned samples provide clues for space weathering on asteroids, but many deductions arising from those studies must still be considered circumstantial. Theoretical work is also indispensable, but it can only go as far as the sometimes meager data allow. Experimentation, however, can permit near real-time study of myriad processes that could contribute to space weathering. This contribution describes some of the capabilities of the Johnson Space Center's Experimental Impact Laboratory (EIL) and how they might help in understanding the space weathering process.

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

2009-01-01

Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

Regional input to joint European space weather service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanislawska, I.; Belehaki, A.; Jansen, F.; Heynderickx, D.; Lilensten, J.; Candidi, M.

The basis for elaborating within COST 724 Action Developing the scientific basis for monitoring modeling and predicting Space Weather European space weather service is rich by many national and international activities which provide instruments and tools for global as well as regional monitoring and modeling COST 724 stimulates coordinates and supports Europe s goals of development and global cooperation by providing standards for timely and high quality information and knowledge in space weather Existing local capabilities are taken into account to develop synergies and avoid duplication The enhancement of environment monitoring networks and associated instruments technology yields mutual advantages for European service and regional services specialized for local users needs It structurally increases the integration of limited-area services generates a platform employing the same approach to each task differing mostly in input and output data In doing so it also provides complementary description of the environmental state within issued information A general scheme of regional services concept within COST 724 activity can be the processing chain from measurements trough algorithms to operational knowledge It provides the platform for interaction among the local end users who define what kind of information they need system providers who elaborate tools necessary to obtain required information and local service providers who do the actual processing of data and tailor it to specific user s needs Such initiative creates a unique possibility for small

A new technique for observationally derived boundary conditions for space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagano, Paolo; Mackay, Duncan Hendry; Yeates, Anthony Robinson

2018-04-01

Context. In recent years, space weather research has focused on developing modelling techniques to predict the arrival time and properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Earth. The aim of this paper is to propose a new modelling technique suitable for the next generation of Space Weather predictive tools that is both efficient and accurate. The aim of the new approach is to provide interplanetary space weather forecasting models with accurate time dependent boundary conditions of erupting magnetic flux ropes in the upper solar corona. Methods: To produce boundary conditions, we couple two different modelling techniques, MHD simulations and a quasi-static non-potential evolution model. Both are applied on a spatial domain that covers the entire solar surface, although they extend over a different radial distance. The non-potential model uses a time series of observed synoptic magnetograms to drive the non-potential quasi-static evolution of the coronal magnetic field. This allows us to follow the formation and loss of equilibrium of magnetic flux ropes. Following this a MHD simulation captures the dynamic evolution of the erupting flux rope, when it is ejected into interplanetary space. Results.The present paper focuses on the MHD simulations that follow the ejection of magnetic flux ropes to 4 R⊙. We first propose a technique for specifying the pre-eruptive plasma properties in the corona. Next, time dependent MHD simulations describe the ejection of two magnetic flux ropes, that produce time dependent boundary conditions for the magnetic field and plasma at 4 R⊙ that in future may be applied to interplanetary space weather prediction models. Conclusions: In the present paper, we show that the dual use of quasi-static non-potential magnetic field simulations and full time dependent MHD simulations can produce realistic inhomogeneous boundary conditions for space weather forecasting tools. Before a fully operational model can be produced there are a

Space Weather Impacts to Conjunction Assessment: A NASA Robotic Orbital Safety Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghrist, Richard; Ghrist, Richard; DeHart, Russel; Newman, Lauri

2013-01-01

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognizes the risk of on-orbit collisions from other satellites and debris objects and has instituted a process to identify and react to close approaches. The charter of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) task is to protect NASA robotic (unmanned) assets from threats posed by other space objects. Monitoring for potential collisions requires formulating close-approach predictions a week or more in the future to determine analyze, and respond to orbital conjunction events of interest. These predictions require propagation of the latest state vector and covariance assuming a predicted atmospheric density and ballistic coefficient. Any differences between the predicted drag used for propagation and the actual drag experienced by the space objects can potentially affect the conjunction event. Therefore, the space environment itself, in particular how space weather impacts atmospheric drag, is an essential element to understand in order effectively to assess the risk of conjunction events. The focus of this research is to develop a better understanding of the impact of space weather on conjunction assessment activities: both accurately determining the current risk and assessing how that risk may change under dynamic space weather conditions. We are engaged in a data-- ]mining exercise to corroborate whether or not observed changes in a conjunction event's dynamics appear consistent with space weather changes and are interested in developing a framework to respond appropriately to uncertainty in predicted space weather. In particular, we use historical conjunction event data products to search for dynamical effects on satellite orbits from changing atmospheric drag. Increased drag is expected to lower the satellite specific energy and will result in the satellite's being 'later' than expected, which can affect satellite conjunctions in a number of ways depending on the two satellites' orbits

Space weather forecasting with a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Butala, M.; Wilson, B. D.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.

2016-07-01

The goal of the Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) program is to improve space weather specification and forecasting with ensemble modeling. Space weather can have detrimental effects on a variety of civilian and military systems and operations, and many of the applications pertain to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. Space weather can affect over-the-horizon radars, HF communications, surveying and navigation systems, surveillance, spacecraft charging, power grids, pipelines, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA's) Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). Because of its importance, numerous space weather forecasting approaches are being pursued, including those involving empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. Clearly, if there are sufficient data, the data assimilation modeling approach is expected to be the most reliable, but different data assimilation models can produce different results. Therefore, like the meteorology community, we created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (ITE) system that is based on different data assimilation models. The MEPS ensemble is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models for the ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and middle to low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics. Hence, multiple data assimilation models can be used to describe each region. A selected storm event that was reconstructed with four different data assimilation models covering the middle and low latitude ionosphere is presented and discussed. In addition, the effect of different data types on the reconstructions is shown.

Operationalizing the Space Weather Modeling Framework: Challenges and Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Gombosi, T. I.; Toth, G.; Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Balch, C. C.; Cash, M. D.

2016-12-01

Predicting ground-based magnetic perturbations is a critical step towards specifying and predicting geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in high voltage transmission lines. Currently, the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), a flexible modeling framework for simulating the multi-scale space environment, is being transitioned from research to operational use (R2O) by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Upon completion of this transition, the SWMF will provide localized time-varying magnetic field (dB/dt) predictions using real-time solar wind observations from L1 and the F10.7 proxy for EUV as model input. This presentation chronicles the challenges encountered during the R2O transition of the SWMF. Because operations relies on frequent calculations of global surface dB/dt, new optimizations were required to keep the model running faster than real time. Additionally, several singular situations arose during the 30-day robustness test that required immediate attention. Solutions and strategies for overcoming these issues will be presented. This includes new failsafe options for code execution, new physics and coupling parameters, and the development of an automated validation suite that allows us to monitor performance with code evolution. Finally, the operations-to-research (O2R) impact on SWMF-related research is presented. The lessons learned from this work are valuable and instructive for the space weather community as further R2O progress is made.

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hejduk, Matthew D.; Newman, Lauri K.; Besser, Rebecca L.; Pachura, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

On the Nature of People's Reaction to Space Weather and Meteorological Weather Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabarova, O. V.; Dimitrova, S.

2009-12-01

Our environment includes many natural and artificial agents affecting any person on the Earth in one way or other. This work is focused on two of them - weather and space weather, which are permanently effective. Their cumulative effect is proved by means of the modeling. It is shown that combination of geomagnetic and solar indices and weather strength parameter (which includes six main meteorological parameters) correlates with health state significantly better (up to R=0.7), than separate environmental parameters do. The typical shape of any health characteristics' time-series during human body reaction to any negative impact represents a curve, well-known in medicine as a General Adaptation Syndrome curve by Hans Selye. We demonstrate this on the base of blood pressure time-series and acupunctural experiment data, averaged by group. The first stage of adaptive stress-reaction (resistance to stress) is sometimes observed 1-2 days before geomagnetic storm onset. The effect of "outstripping reaction to magnetic storm", named Tchizhevsky- Velkhover effect, had been known for many years, but its explanation was obtained recently due to the consideration of the near-Earth space plasma processes. It was shown that lowfrequency variations of the solar wind density on a background of the density growth can stimulate the development of the geomagnetic filed (GMF) variations of the wide frequency range. These variations seem to have "bioeffective frequencies", resonant with own frequencies of body organs and systems. The mechanism of human body reaction is supposed to be a parametrical resonance in low-frequency range (which is determined by the resonance in large-scale organs and systems) and a simple forced resonance in GHz-range of variations (the resonance of micro-objects in the organism such as DNA, cell membranes, blood ions etc.) Given examples of mass-reaction of the objects to ULF-range GMF variations during quiet space weather time prove this hypothesis.