Climate Conditioning for the Learning Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perkins and Will, Architects, Chicago, IL.

Discusses heating, cooling, and ventilation for the classroom in relationship to students' learning abilities. It is designed to assist school boards, administrators, architects and engineers in understanding the beneficial effects of total climate control, and in evaluating the climate conditioning systems available for schools. Discussion…

VNIR hyperspectral background characterization methods in adverse weather conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, João M.; Rosario, Dalton; Roth, Luz

2009-05-01

Hyperspectral technology is currently being used by the military to detect regions of interest where potential targets may be located. Weather variability, however, may affect the ability for an algorithm to discriminate possible targets from background clutter. Nonetheless, different background characterization approaches may facilitate the ability for an algorithm to discriminate potential targets over a variety of weather conditions. In a previous paper, we introduced a new autonomous target size invariant background characterization process, the Autonomous Background Characterization (ABC) or also known as the Parallel Random Sampling (PRS) method, features a random sampling stage, a parallel process to mitigate the inclusion by chance of target samples into clutter background classes during random sampling; and a fusion of results at the end. In this paper, we will demonstrate how different background characterization approaches are able to improve performance of algorithms over a variety of challenging weather conditions. By using the Mahalanobis distance as the standard algorithm for this study, we compare the performance of different characterization methods such as: the global information, 2 stage global information, and our proposed method, ABC, using data that was collected under a variety of adverse weather conditions. For this study, we used ARDEC's Hyperspectral VNIR Adverse Weather data collection comprised of heavy, light, and transitional fog, light and heavy rain, and low light conditions.

Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

PubMed

Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

2015-01-01

Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

75 FR 8353 - Waiver of Filing Deadline Due to Adverse Weather Conditions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-24

... FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION Waiver of Filing Deadline Due to Adverse Weather Conditions... weather conditions, the Federal Communications Commission closed early on Friday, February 5, and closed... closings and disruptions caused by the weather in the Washington, DC area, all paper and electronic filings...

The impact of climate change on air conditioning requirements in Andalusia at a detailed scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limones-Rodríguez, Natalia; Marzo-Artigas, Javier; Pita-López, María Fernanda; Díaz-Cuevas, María Pilar

2017-11-01

This work calculates the current heating and cooling degree days and also examines heating and cooling degree days in relation to three subdivisions of the twenty-first century. On the basis of these data, we were able to calculate the heating and cooling degree months and degree years. After examining both sets of data, we studied the total needs of air conditioning—also referred to in the current paper as climatization needs——for Andalusia as a whole. The results indicate an increase in air conditioning needs, and we also noted that the areas adversely affected by this increase were more numerous than those which benefited, at the end of the century. It should be noted that climate change will also necessitate the gradual replacement of heating with cooling, which will require profound changes in the energy, land planning, and housing policies of the region. The true magnitude of the challenge becomes clear when the climatization degree days are related to the population which they affect; the majority of the population is located in areas where the climatization needs will increase over the course of the century. Undoubtedly, this issue is a major protagonist in the climate change adaptation process in Andalusia.

Lincoln Laboratory demonstrates highly accurate vehicle localization under adverse weather conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-25

2016 Lincoln Laboratory demonstrates highly accurate vehicle localization under adverse weather conditions A ground-penetrating radar system...the problems limiting the development and adoption of self-driving vehicles: how can a vehicle navigate to stay within its lane when bad weather ... weather conditions, but it is challenging, even impossible, for them to work when snow covers the markings and surfaces or precipitation obscures points

Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

2014-01-01

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders: Evidence Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slack, Kelley J.; Williams, Thomas J.; Schneiderman, Jason S.; Whitmire, Alexandra M.; Picano, James J.; Leveton, Lauren B.; Schmidt, Lacey L.; Shea, Camille

2016-01-01

In April 2010, President Obama declared a space pioneering goal for the United States in general and NASA in particular. "Fifty years after the creation of NASA, our goal is no longer just a destination to reach. Our goal is the capacity for people to work and learn and operate and live safely beyond the Earth for extended periods of time, ultimately in ways that are more sustainable and even indefinite." Thus NASA's Strategic Objective 1.1 emerged as "expand human presence into the solar system and to the surface of Mars to advance exploration, science, innovation, benefits to humanity, and international collaboration" (NASA 2015b). Any space flight, be it of long or short duration, occurs in an extreme environment that has unique stressors. Even with excellent selection methods, the potential for behavioral problems among space flight crews remain a threat to mission success. Assessment of factors that are related to behavioral health can help minimize the chances of distress and, thus, reduce the likelihood of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders arising within a crew. Similarly, countermeasures that focus on prevention and treatment can mitigate the cognitive or behavioral conditions that, should they arise, would impact mission success. Given the general consensus that longer duration, isolation, and confined missions have a greater risk for behavioral health ensuring crew behavioral health over the long term is essential. Risk, which within the context of this report is assessed with respect to behavioral health and performance, is addressed to deter development of cognitive and behavioral degradations or psychiatric conditions in space flight and analog populations, and to monitor, detect, and treat early risk factors, predictors and other contributing factors. Based on space flight and analog evidence, the average incidence rate of an adverse behavioral health event occurring during a space mission is relatively low for the

Perceptual Learning of Speech under Optimal and Adverse Conditions

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xujin; Samuel, Arthur G.

2014-01-01

Humans have a remarkable ability to understand spoken language despite the large amount of variability in speech. Previous research has shown that listeners can use lexical information to guide their interpretation of atypical sounds in speech (Norris, McQueen, & Cutler, 2003). This kind of lexically induced perceptual learning enables people to adjust to the variations in utterances due to talker-specific characteristics, such as individual identity and dialect. The current study investigated perceptual learning in two optimal conditions: conversational speech (Experiment 1) vs. clear speech (Experiment 2), and three adverse conditions: noise (Experiment 3a) vs. two cognitive loads (Experiments 4a & 4b). Perceptual learning occurred in the two optimal conditions and in the two cognitive load conditions, but not in the noise condition. Furthermore, perceptual learning occurred only in the first of two sessions for each participant, and only for atypical /s/ sounds and not for atypical /f/ sounds. This pattern of learning and non-learning reflects a balance between flexibility and stability that the speech system must have to deal with speech variability in the diverse conditions that speech is encountered. PMID:23815478

Perceptual learning of speech under optimal and adverse conditions.

PubMed

Zhang, Xujin; Samuel, Arthur G

2014-02-01

Humans have a remarkable ability to understand spoken language despite the large amount of variability in speech. Previous research has shown that listeners can use lexical information to guide their interpretation of atypical sounds in speech (Norris, McQueen, & Cutler, 2003). This kind of lexically induced perceptual learning enables people to adjust to the variations in utterances due to talker-specific characteristics, such as individual identity and dialect. The current study investigated perceptual learning in two optimal conditions: conversational speech (Experiment 1) versus clear speech (Experiment 2), and three adverse conditions: noise (Experiment 3a) versus two cognitive loads (Experiments 4a and 4b). Perceptual learning occurred in the two optimal conditions and in the two cognitive load conditions, but not in the noise condition. Furthermore, perceptual learning occurred only in the first of two sessions for each participant, and only for atypical /s/ sounds and not for atypical /f/ sounds. This pattern of learning and nonlearning reflects a balance between flexibility and stability that the speech system must have to deal with speech variability in the diverse conditions that speech is encountered. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Climate Change Research - What Do We Need Really?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rama Chandra Prasad, P.

2015-01-01

This research note focuses on the current climate change research scenario and discusses primarily what is required in the present global climate change conditions. Most of the climate change research and models predict adverse future conditions that have to be faced by humanity, with less emphasis on mitigation measures. Moreover, research ends as reports on the shelves of scientists and researchers and as publications in journals. At this juncture the major focus should be on research that helps in reducing the impact rather than on analysing future scenarios of climate change using different models. The article raises several questions and suggestions regards climate change research and lays emphasis on what we really need from climate change researchers.

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozdniakov, S.; Lykhina, N.

2010-03-01

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions Diffusive groundwater recharge is a vertical water flux through the water table, i.e. through the boundary between the unsaturated and saturated zones. This flux features temporal and spatial changes due to variations in the climatic conditions, landscape the state of vegetation, and the spatial variability of vadoze zone characteristics. In a changing climate the non-steady state series of climatic characteristics will affect on the groundwater recharge.. A well-tested approach to calculating water flux through the vadoze zone is the application of Richard’s equations for a heterogeneous one-domain porosity continuum with specially formulated atmospheric boundary conditions at the ground surface. In this approach the climatic parameters are reflected in upper boundary conditions, while the recharge series is the flux through the low boundary. In this work developed by authors code Surfbal that simulates water cycle at surface of topsoil to take into account the various condition of precipitation transformation at the surface in different seasons under different vegetation cover including snow accumulation in winter and melting in spring is used to generate upper boundary condition at surface of topsoil for world-wide known Hydrus-1D code (Simunek et al, 2008). To estimate the proposal climate change effect we performed Surfbal and Hydrus simulation using the steady state climatic condition and transient condition due to global warming on example of Moscow region, Russia. The following scenario of climate change in 21 century in Moscow region was selected: the annual temperature will increase on 4C during 100 year and annual precipitation will increase on 10% (Solomon et al, 2007). Within the year the maximum increasing of temperature and precipitation falls on winter time, while in middle of summer temperature will remain almost the same as observed now and monthly

International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia

2017-05-01

Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season.

LEARNING TO BE BAD: ADVERSE SOCIAL CONDITIONS, SOCIAL SCHEMAS, AND CRIME

PubMed Central

Simons, Ronald L.; Burt, Callie Harbin

2011-01-01

In this paper we develop and test a new approach to explain the link between social factors and individual offending. We argue that seemingly disparate family, peer, and community conditions lead to crime because the lessons communicated by these events are similar and promote social schemas involving a hostile view of people and relationships, a preference for immediate rewards, and a cynical view of conventional norms. Further, we posit that these three schemas are interconnected and combine to form a criminogenic knowledge structure that gives rise to situational interpretations legitimating criminal behavior. Structural equation modeling with a sample of roughly 700 hundred African American teens provided strong support for the model. The findings indicated that persistent exposure to adverse conditions such as community crime, discrimination, harsh parenting, deviant peers and low neighborhood collective efficacy increased commitment to the three social schemas. The three schemas were highly intercorrelated and combined to form a latent construct that strongly predicted increases in crime. Further, in large measure the effect of the various adverse conditions on increases in crime was indirect through their impact on this latent construct. We discuss the extent to which the social schematic model presented in the paper might be used to integrate concepts and findings from several of the major theories of criminal behavior. PMID:21760641

Ceramic production during changing environmental/climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oestreich, Daniela B.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

2015-04-01

Ceramics, with regard to their status as largely everlasting everyday object as well as on the basis of their chronological sensitivity, reflect despite their simplicity the technological level of a culture and therefore also, directly or indirectly, the adaptability of a culture with respect to environmental and/or climatic changes. For that reason the question arises, if it is possible to identify changes in production techniques and raw material sources for ceramic production, as a response to environmental change, e.g. climate change. This paper will present results of a research about Paracas Culture (800 - 200 BC), southern Peru. Through several investigations (e.g. Schittek et al., 2014; Eitel and Mächtle, 2009) it is well known that during Paracas period changes in climate and environmental conditions take place. As a consequence, settlement patterns shifted several times through the various stages of Paracas time. Ceramics from three different sites (Jauranga, Cutamalla, Collanco) and temporal phases of the Paracas period are detailed archaeometric, geochemical and mineralogical characterized, e.g. Raman spectroscopy, XRD, and ICP-MS analyses. The aim of this research is to resolve potential differences in the chemical composition of the Paracas ceramics in space and time and to compare the data with the data sets of pre-Columbian environmental conditions. Thus influences of changing environmental conditions on human societies and their cultural conditions will be discussed. References Eitel, B. and Mächtle, B. 2009. Man and Environment in the eastern Atacama Desert (Southern Peru): Holocene climate changes and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures. In: Reindel, M. & Wagner, G. A. (eds.) New Technologies for Archaeology. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Schittek, K., Mächtle, B., Schäbitz, F., Forbriger, M., Wennrich, V., Reindel, M., and Eitel, B.. Holocene environmental changes in the highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes (14° S) and their

Causal Factors and Adverse Conditions of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reveley, Mary S.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Evans, Joni K.; Sandifer, Carl E.; Jones, Sharon Monica

2010-01-01

The causal factors of accidents from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database and incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) database associated with loss of control (LOC) were examined for four types of operations (i.e., Federal Aviation Regulation Part 121, Part 135 Scheduled, Part 135 Nonscheduled, and Part 91) for the years 1988 to 2004. In-flight LOC is a serious aviation problem. Well over half of the LOC accidents included at least one fatality (80 percent in Part 121), and roughly half of all aviation fatalities in the studied time period occurred in conjunction with LOC. An adverse events table was updated to provide focus to the technology validation strategy of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project. The table contains three types of adverse conditions: failure, damage, and upset. Thirteen different adverse condition subtypes were gleaned from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), the FAA Accident and Incident database, and the NTSB database. The severity and frequency of the damage conditions, initial test conditions, and milestones references are also provided.

Early Life Conditions, Adverse Life Events, and Chewing Ability at Middle and Later Adulthood

PubMed Central

Watt, Richard G.; Tsakos, Georgios

2014-01-01

Objectives. We sought to determine the extent to which early life conditions and adverse life events impact chewing ability in middle and later adulthood. Methods. Secondary analyses were conducted based on data from waves 2 and 3 of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), collected in the years 2006 to 2009 and encompassing information on current chewing ability and the life history of persons aged 50 years or older from 13 European countries. Logistic regression models were estimated with sequential inclusion of explanatory variables representing living conditions in childhood and adverse life events. Results. After controlling for current determinants of chewing ability at age 50 years or older, certain childhood and later life course socioeconomic, behavioral, and cognitive factors became evident as correlates of chewing ability at age 50 years or older. Specifically, childhood financial hardship was identified as an early life predictor of chewing ability at age 50 years or older (odds ratio = 1.58; 95% confidence interval = 1.22, 2.06). Conclusions. Findings suggest a potential enduring impact of early life conditions and adverse life events on oral health in middle and later adulthood and are relevant for public health decision-makers who design strategies for optimal oral health. PMID:24625140

Prevention of adverse climate change impacts on water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fosumpaur, P.

2003-04-01

The water resources design is generally based on the assumption of the stationary hydrological process and the reservoir storage is obviously evaluated in simulated flow series derived by the synthetic hydrology methods. Recently, results of numerous studies and major flood events have clearly proved that the variation of meteorological and hydrological parameters are beyond the bounds of the stationary process. These changes are related to the global climate change, which has been emphasised by the IPCC (International Panel of Climate Change) since the beginning of the 80s. Regional scenarios of the climate change are downscaled from the GCM and they are characterised by considerable variance. This uncertainty enters hydrological models of a catchment runoff which quantify impacts of the global climate change on the river flow regime. A number of studies have dealt with impacts of hydrological regime changes on water resources planning. They have shown that the variability of the reservoir storage-yield curve is seriously high. This study is aimed at the design of preventive actions based on the adaptation principle which is known from cybernetics. These prevention measures should be designed with respect to the proper identification of risks. Thus, the risk analysis should be considered. The main goals of the study are as follows: 1) Proposition of the strategic preventive actions which will be aimed to reassess particular reservoir functions with respect to actual and predicted conditions of the environment. This topic includes a potential reassessment of the capacity of particular reservoir storages. 2) Design of the system of real-time adaptive actions in the real reservoir operation to optimize the measure of the risk related to the extreme hydrological events as floods and hydrological droughts. This research has been supported by the grants No. 103/02/D049, No. 103/01/0201 and No. 103/02/0606 of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic.

Boundary conditions for the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frigola, Amanda; Prange, Matthias; Schulz, Michael

2018-04-01

The Middle Miocene Climate Transition was characterized by major Antarctic ice sheet expansion and global cooling during the interval ˜ 15-13 Ma. Here we present two sets of boundary conditions for global general circulation models characterizing the periods before (Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum; MMCO) and after (Middle Miocene Glaciation; MMG) the transition. These boundary conditions include Middle Miocene global topography, bathymetry, and vegetation. Additionally, Antarctic ice volume and geometry, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates for the MMCO and the MMG are reviewed. The MMCO and MMG boundary conditions have been successfully applied to the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) to provide evidence of their suitability for global climate modeling. The boundary-condition files are available for use as input in a wide variety of global climate models and constitute a valuable tool for modeling studies with a focus on the Middle Miocene.

Assurance of Fault Management: Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitz, Rhonda

2016-01-01

Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of criticality within flight software, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance for NASA projects, especially as spaceflight systems continue to increase in complexity. Insight into specific characteristics of FM architectures seen embedded within safety- and mission-critical software systems analyzed by the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program has been enhanced with an FM Technical Reference (TR) suite. Benefits are aimed beyond the IVV community to those that seek ways to efficiently and effectively provide software assurance to reduce the FM risk posture of NASA and other space missions. The identification of particular FM architectures, visibility, and associated IVV techniques provides a TR suite that enables greater assurance that critical software systems will adequately protect against faults and respond to adverse conditions. The role FM has with regard to overall asset protection of flight software systems is being addressed with the development of an adverse condition (AC) database encompassing flight software vulnerabilities.Identification of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine how a system responds to these conditions are important aspects of hazard analysis and fault management. Understanding what ACs the mission may face, and ensuring they are prevented or addressed is the responsibility of the assurance team, which necessarily should have insight into ACs beyond those defined by the project itself. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs, and allowing queries based on project, mission

[Seed vigor evaluation based on adversity resistance index of wheat seed germination under stress conditions.

PubMed

Chen, Lei Tai; Sun, Ai Qing; Yang, Min; Chen, Lu Lu; Ma, Xue Li; Li, Mei Ling; Yin, Yan Ping

2016-09-01

A total of 16 wheat cultivars were selected to detect seed vigor of different genotypes using standard germination test, seed germination test under stress conditions and field emergence test. The adversity resistance indices of seed vigor indices and field emergence percentage under different germination conditions were used as the indices to evaluate adversity resistance. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used for the comprehensive evaluation of seed vigor. Results showed that drought stress, artificial aging and cold soaking treatments affected seed vigor to some extent. The adversity resistance indices of the artificial aging and cold soaking tests were significantly positively correlated with the field emergence percentage, while the adversity resistance index of drought stress test had no significant correlation with the field emergence percentage. 16 wheat cultivars were classified as three groups based on the principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Yunong 949, Yumai 49-198, Luyuan 502, Zhengyumai 9987, Shimai 21, Shannong 23, and Shixin 828 belonged to high vigor seeds. Xunong 5, Yunong 982, Tangmai 8, Jimai 20, Jimai 22, Jinan 17, and Shannong 20 belonged to medium vigor seeds. The other two cultivars, Chang 4738 and Lunxuan 061, belonged to low vigor seeds.

Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

2010-01-01

Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia

2016-01-01

Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season. PMID:28943813

Climatic conditions and child height: Sex-specific vulnerability and the protective effects of sanitation and food markets in Nepal.

PubMed

Mulmi, Prajula; Block, Steven A; Shively, Gerald E; Masters, William A

2016-12-01

novel indications of mechanisms by which households can gain resilience against adverse climatic conditions. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stability of the Martian climate system under the seasonal change condition of solar radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Takasumi; Tajika, Eiichi

2002-11-01

Previous studies on stability of the Martian climate system used essentially zero-dimensional energy balance climate models (EBMs) under the condition of annual mean solar radiation income. However, areal extent of polar ice caps should affect the Martian climate through the energy balance and the CO2 budget, and results under the seasonal change condition of solar radiation will be different from those under the annual mean condition. We therefore construct a one-dimensional energy balance climate model with CO2-dependent outgoing radiation, seasonal changes of solar radiation income, changes of areal extent of CO2 ice caps, and adsorption of CO2 by regolith. We have investigated behaviors of the Martian climate system and, in particular, examined the effect of the seasonal changes of solar radiation by comparing the results of previous studies under the condition of annual mean solar radiation. One of the major discrepancies between them is the condition for multiple solutions of the Martian climate system. Although the Martian climate system always has multiple solutions under the annual mean condition, under the seasonal change condition, existence of multiple solutions depends on the present amounts of CO2 in the ice caps and the regolith.

Some effects of adverse weather conditions on performance of airplane antiskid braking systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horne, W. B.; Mccarty, J. L.; Tanner, J. A.

1976-01-01

The performance of current antiskid braking systems operating under adverse weather conditions was analyzed in an effort to both identify the causes of locked-wheel skids which sometimes occur when the runway is slippery and to find possible solutions to this operational problem. This analysis was made possible by the quantitative test data provided by recently completed landing research programs using fully instrumented flight test airplanes and was further supported by tests performed at the Langley aircraft landing loads and traction facility. The antiskid system logic for brake control and for both touchdown and locked-wheel protection is described and its response behavior in adverse weather is discussed in detail with the aid of available data. The analysis indicates that the operational performance of the antiskid logic circuits is highly dependent upon wheel spin-up acceleration and can be adversely affected by certain pilot braking inputs when accelerations are low. Normal antiskid performance is assured if the tire-to-runway traction is sufficient to provide high wheel spin-up accelerations or if the system is provided a continuous, accurate ground speed reference. The design of antiskid systems is complicated by the necessity for tradeoffs between tire braking and cornering capabilities, both of which are necessary to provide safe operations in the presence of cross winds, particularly under slippery runway conditions.

24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter and...

Pathways from childhood abuse and other adversities to adult health risks: The role of adult socioeconomic conditions.

PubMed

Font, Sarah A; Maguire-Jack, Kathryn

2016-01-01

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), including child abuse, have been linked with poor health outcomes in adulthood. The mechanisms that explain these relations are less understood. This study assesses whether associations of ACEs and health risks are mediated by adult socioeconomic conditions, and whether these pathways are different for maltreatment than for other types of adversities. Using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2012 survey (N=29,229), we employ structural equation modeling to (1) estimate associations of the number and type of ACEs with five health risks-depression, obesity, tobacco use, binge drinking, and self-reported sub-optimal health; and (2) assess whether adult socioeconomic conditions-marriage, divorce and separation, educational attainment, income and insurance status-mediate those associations. Findings suggest both direct and indirect associations between ACEs and health risks. At high numbers of ACEs, 15-20% of the association between number of ACEs and adult health risks was attributable to socioeconomic conditions. Associations of three ACEs (exposure to domestic violence, parental divorce, and residing with a person who was incarcerated) with health risks were nearly entirely explained by socioeconomic conditions in adulthood. However, child physical, emotional, and sexual abuse were significantly associated with several adult health risks, beyond the effects of other adversities, and socioeconomic conditions explained only a small portion of these associations. These findings suggest that the pathways to poor adult health differ by types of ACEs, and that childhood abuse is more likely than other adversities to have a direct impact. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weather and Climate Impacts on Commercial Motor Vehicle Safety

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-04-01

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has an interest in how adverse weather may influence trucking industry practices, and what climate change might mean for future FMCSA efforts to reduce weather-related crashes. Weather condition...

Impacts of boundary condition changes on regional climate projections over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jee Hee; Kim, Yeonjoo; Wang, Guiling

2017-06-01

Future projections using regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with boundary conditions (BCs) typically derived from global climate models. Understanding the impact of the various BCs on regional climate projections is critical for characterizing their robustness and uncertainties. In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of different aspects of boundary conditions, including lateral BCs and sea surface temperature (SST), on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa, and BCs from the coupled European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model are used as an example. Historical, future, and several sensitivity experiments are conducted with various combinations of BCs and CO2 concentration, and differences among the experiments are compared to identify the most important drivers for RCMs. When driven by changes in all factors, the RegCM4-produced future climate changes include significantly drier conditions in Sahel and wetter conditions along the Guinean coast. Changes in CO2 concentration within the RCM domain alone or changes in wind vectors at the domain boundaries alone have minor impact on projected future climate changes. Changes in the atmospheric humidity alone at the domain boundaries lead to a wetter Sahel due to the northward migration of rain belts during summer. This impact, although significant, is offset and dominated by changes of other BC factors (primarily temperature) that cause a drying signal. Future changes of atmospheric temperature at the domain boundaries combined with SST changes over oceans are sufficient to cause a future climate that closely resembles the projection that accounts for all factors combined. Therefore, climate variability and changes simulated by RCMs depend primarily on the variability and change of temperature aspects of the RCM BCs. Moreover, it is found that the response

Assessing cover crop management under actual and climate change conditions.

PubMed

Alonso-Ayuso, María; Quemada, Miguel; Vanclooster, Marnik; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Rodriguez, Alfredo; Gabriel, José Luis

2018-04-15

The termination date is recognized as a key management factor to enhance cover crops for multiple benefits and to avoid competition with the following cash crop. However, the optimum date depends on annual meteorological conditions, and climate variability induces uncertainty in a decision that needs to be taken every year. One of the most important cover crop benefits is reducing nitrate leaching, a major concern for irrigated agricultural systems and highly affected by the termination date. This study aimed to determine the effects of cover crops and their termination date on the water and N balances of an irrigated Mediterranean agroecosystem under present and future climate conditions. For that purpose, two field experiments were used for inverse calibration and validation of the WAVE model (Water and Agrochemicals in the soil and Vadose Environment), based on continuous soil water content data, soil nitrogen content and crop measurements. The calibrated and validated model was subsequently used in advanced scenario analysis under present and climate change conditions. Under present conditions, a late termination date increased cover crop biomass and subsequently soil water and N depletion. Hence, preemptive competition risk with the main crop was enhanced, but a reduction of nitrate leaching also occurred. The hypothetical planting date of the following cash crop was also an important tool to reduce preemptive competition. Under climate change conditions, the simulations showed that the termination date will be even more important to reduce preemptive competition and nitrate leaching. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adverse psychosocial working conditions and poor quality of life among financial service employees in Brazil.

PubMed

Silva, Luiz Sergio; Barreto, Sandhi Maria

2012-01-01

Workers in the financial services sector are exposed to great stress at work. This study investigates whether exposure to adverse psychosocial work conditions is independently associated with poor health-related physical and mental quality of life among financial services workers. We studied a nationwide representative sample of 2,054 workers of a large Brazilian state bank in 2008. Adverse psychosocial work conditions were investigated by the Effort-reward imbalance (ERI) scale and the Job content questionnaire (JCQ). Health-related quality of life (HRQL) was assessed using the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form General Health Survey (SF-12). Poor mental and physical HRQL was defined by the lowest quartiles of the SF-12 final score distributions. Associations were investigated using multiple logistic regression analysis. In the multivariate analysis, exposures to low control and lack of social support at work (JCQ) were associated with poor HRQL in the physical domain. Increasing effort-reward imbalance and overcommitment (ERI), on the other hand, were associated with poor HRQL in the mental domain, with a significant statistical trend. Overcommitment was also associated with poor physical HRQL. The results suggest that exposure to adverse psychosocial work conditions has a negative impact on both domains of HRQL among financial service workers. They also indicate that ERI and DC models capture different aspects of job strain.

Measurement of heat stress conditions at cow level and comparison to climate conditions at stationary locations inside a dairy barn.

PubMed

Schüller, Laura K; Heuwieser, Wolfgang

2016-08-01

The objectives of this study were to examine heat stress conditions at cow level and to investigate the relationship to the climate conditions at 5 different stationary locations inside a dairy barn. In addition, we compared the climate conditions at cow level between primiparous and multiparous cows for a period of 1 week after regrouping. The temperature-humidity index (THI) differed significantly between all stationary loggers. The lowest THI was measured at the window logger in the experimental stall and the highest THI was measured at the central logger in the experimental stall. The THI at the mobile cow loggers was 2·33 THI points higher than at the stationary loggers. Furthermore, the mean daily THI was higher at the mobile cow loggers than at the stationary loggers on all experimental days. The THI in the experimental pen was 0·44 THI points lower when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. The THI measured at the mobile cow loggers was 1·63 THI points higher when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. However, there was no significant difference for all climate variables between primiparous and multiparous cows. These results indicate, there is a wide range of climate conditions inside a dairy barn and especially areas with a great distance to a fresh air supply have an increased risk for the occurrence of heat stress conditions. Furthermore, the heat stress conditions are even higher at cow level and cows not only influence their climatic environment, but also generate microclimates within different locations inside the barn. Therefore climate conditions should be obtained at cow level to evaluate the heat stress conditions that dairy cows are actually exposed to.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

When it rains, it pours: future climate extremes and health.

PubMed

Patz, Jonathan A; Grabow, Maggie L; Limaye, Vijay S

2014-01-01

The accelerating accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere is changing global environmental conditions in unprecedented and potentially irreversible ways. Climate change poses a host of challenges to the health of populations through complex direct and indirect mechanisms. The direct effects include an increased frequency of heat waves, rising sea levels that threaten low-lying communities, anticipated extremes in the global hydrologic cycle (droughts, floods, and intense storms), and adverse effects on agricultural production and fisheries due to environmental stressors and changes in land use. Indirectly, climate change is anticipated to threaten health by worsening urban air pollution and increasing rates of infectious (particularly waterborne and vector-borne) disease transmission. To provide a state-of-the-science review on the health consequences of a changing climate. Environmental public health researchers have concluded that, on balance, adverse health outcomes will dominate under these changed climatic conditions. The number of pathways through which climate change can affect the health of populations makes this environmental health threat one of the largest and most formidable of the new century. Geographic location plays an influential role the potential for adverse health effects caused by climate change, and certain regions and populations are more vulnerable than others to expected health effects. Two kinds of strategies are available for responding to climate change: mitigation policies (which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation measures (relating to preparedness for anticipated impacts). To better understand and address the complex nature of health risks posed by climate change, interdisciplinary collaboration is critical. Efforts to move beyond our current reliance on fossil fuels to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources may offer some of the greatest health opportunities in more than a century and cobenefits

Chosen risk level during car-following in adverse weather conditions.

PubMed

Hjelkrem, Odd André; Ryeng, Eirin Olaussen

2016-10-01

This study examines how precipitation, light conditions and surface conditions affect the drivers' risk perception. An indicator CRI (Chosen Risk Index) is defined, which describes the chosen risk level for drivers in a car-following situation. The dataset contains about 70 000 observations of driver behaviour and weather status on a rural road. Based on the theory of risk homeostasis and an assumption that driving behaviour in situations with daylight, dry road and no precipitation reflects drivers' target level of risk, generalised linear models (GLM) were estimated for cars and trucks separately to reveal the effect of adverse weather conditions on risk perception. The analyses show that both car and truck drivers perceive the highest risk when driving on snow covered roads. For car drivers, a snow covered road in combination with moderate rain or light snow are the factors which lowers the CRI the most. For trucks, snow cover and partially covered roads significantly lowers the CRI, while precipitation did not seem to impose any higher risk. Interaction effects were found for car drivers only. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of future climate conditions on terrestrial export from coastal southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J. M.

2015-12-01

The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project (SBC-LTER) is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export is a central theme for the project. Here we combine the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model and daily precipitation and temperature downscaled using statistical downscaling based on localized constructed Analogs (LOCA) to estimate recent streamflow dynamics (2000 to 2014) and future conditions (2015 to 2100). The HRR model covers the SBC-LTER watersheds from just west of the Ventura River to Point Conception; a land area of roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The downscaled climate conditions have a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. Here, we use the Penman-Monteith method with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The HRR model is calibrated for the period 2000 to 2014 using USGS and LTER streamflow. An automated calibration technique is used. For future climate scenarios, we use mean 8-day land cover conditions. Future streamflow, ET and soil moisture statistics are presented and based on downscaled P and T from ten climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

Factors that condition the spontaneous reporting of adverse drug reactions among nurses: an integrative review.

PubMed

De Angelis, Alessia; Colaceci, Sofia; Giusti, Angela; Vellone, Ercole; Alvaro, Rosaria

2016-03-01

To describe and synthesise previous research on factors conditioning the spontaneous reporting of adverse drug reactions among nurses. Spontaneous reports of adverse drug reactions by health-care providers, are a main instrument for the continuous evaluation of the risk-benefit ratio of every drug. Under-reporting of adverse drug reactions by all health-care providers, in particular by nurses, is a major limitation to this system. An integrated review of the literature was conducted using MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, Scopus databases and Google Scholar. After evaluation for appropriateness related to inclusion/exclusion criteria, 16 studies were included in the final analysis and synthesis. Two factors emerged from the study: (1) intrinsic factors related to nurses' knowledge and attitudes; (2) extrinsic factors related to nurses' interaction with health-care organisations and to the relationship between nurses and physicians. Nurses' attitudes that hinder reporting include ignorance, insecurity, fear and lethargy. Nurses are not fully aware of their role in adverse drug reaction reporting. Nurses must acquire greater knowledge to implement specific skills into their daily clinical practice. To improve nurses' reporting of adverse drug reactions, it is necessary to develop management approaches that modify both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

Treesearch

George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

2015-01-01

The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

2018-01-01

Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer.

PubMed

Paoli, Amélie; Weladji, Robert B; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

2018-01-01

In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species' reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates' births affects offspring survival and population's recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females' physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females' calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change.

Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Adoption by Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garbrecht, Jurgen; Meinke, Holger; Sivakumar, Mannava V. K.; Motha, Raymond P.; Salinger, Michael J.

2005-06-01

Recent advances in atmospheric and ocean sciences and a better understanding of the global climate have led to skillful climate forecasts at seasonal to interannual timescales, even in midlatitudes. These scientific advances and forecasting capabilities have opened the door to practical applications that benefit society. The benefits include the reduction of weather/climate related risks and vulnerability, increased economic opportunities, enhanced food security, mitigation of adverse climate impacts, protection of environmental quality, and so forth. Agriculture in particular can benefit substantially from accurate long-lead seasonal climate forecasts. Indeed, agricultural production very much depends on weather, climate, and water availability, and unexpected departures from anticipated climate conditions can thwart the best laid management plans. Timely climate forecasts offer means to reduce losses in drought years, increase profitability in good years, deal more effectively with climate variability, and choose from targeted risk-management strategies. In addition to benefiting farmers, forecasts can also help marketing systems and downstream users prepare for anticipated production outcomes and associated consequences.

Effects of organizational safety practices and perceived safety climate on PPE usage, engineering controls, and adverse events involving liquid antineoplastic drugs among nurses.

PubMed

DeJoy, David M; Smith, Todd D; Woldu, Henok; Dyal, Mari-Amanda; Steege, Andrea L; Boiano, James M

2017-07-01

Antineoplastic drugs pose risks to the healthcare workers who handle them. This fact notwithstanding, adherence to safe handling guidelines remains inconsistent and often poor. This study examined the effects of pertinent organizational safety practices and perceived safety climate on the use of personal protective equipment, engineering controls, and adverse events (spill/leak or skin contact) involving liquid antineoplastic drugs. Data for this study came from the 2011 National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Health and Safety Practices Survey of Healthcare Workers which included a sample of approximately 1,800 nurses who had administered liquid antineoplastic drugs during the past seven days. Regression modeling was used to examine predictors of personal protective equipment use, engineering controls, and adverse events involving antineoplastic drugs. Approximately 14% of nurses reported experiencing an adverse event while administering antineoplastic drugs during the previous week. Usage of recommended engineering controls and personal protective equipment was quite variable. Usage of both was better in non-profit and government settings, when workers were more familiar with safe handling guidelines, and when perceived management commitment to safety was higher. Usage was poorer in the absence of specific safety handling procedures. The odds of adverse events increased with number of antineoplastic drugs treatments and when antineoplastic drugs were administered more days of the week. The odds of such events were significantly lower when the use of engineering controls and personal protective equipment was greater and when more precautionary measures were in place. Greater levels of management commitment to safety and perceived risk were also related to lower odds of adverse events. These results point to the value of implementing a comprehensive health and safety program that utilizes available hazard controls and effectively communicates

Germination behaviour of annual plants under changing climatic conditions: separating local and regional environmental effects.

PubMed

Petrů, Martina; Tielbörger, Katja

2008-04-01

The role of local adaptation and factors other than climate in determining extinction probabilities of species under climate change has not been yet explicitly studied. Here we performed a field experiment with annual plants growing along a steep climatic gradient in Israel to isolate climatic effects for local trait expression. The focus trait was seed dormancy, for which many theoretical predictions exist regarding climate-driven optimal germination behaviour. We evaluated how germination is consistent with theory, indicating local adaptation to current and changing climatic conditions, and how it varies among species and between natural and standardised soil conditions. We reciprocally sowed seeds from three or four origins for each of three annual species, Biscutella didyma, Bromus fasciculatus and Hymenocarpos circinnatus, in their home and neighbouring sowing locations along an aridity gradient. Our predictions were: lower germination fraction for seeds from more arid origins, and higher germination at wetter sowing locations for all seed origins. By sowing seeds in both local and standard soil, we separated climatic effects from local conditions. At the arid sowing location, two species supported the prediction of low germination of drier seed origins, but differences between seed origins at the other sites were not substantial. There were no clear rainfall effects on germination. Germination fractions were consistently lower on local soil than on standard soil, indicating the important role of soil type and neighbour conditions for trait expression. Local environmental conditions may override effects of climate and so should be carefully addressed in future studies testing for the potential of species to adapt or plastically respond to climate change.

Environmental water demand assessment under climate change conditions.

PubMed

Sarzaeim, Parisa; Bozorg-Haddad, Omid; Fallah-Mehdipour, Elahe; Loáiciga, Hugo A

2017-07-01

Measures taken to cope with the possible effects of climate change on water resources management are key for the successful adaptation to such change. This work assesses the environmental water demand of the Karkheh river in the reach comprising Karkheh dam to the Hoor-al-Azim wetland, Iran, under climate change during the period 2010-2059. The assessment of the environmental demand applies (1) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and (2) downscaling methods. The first phase of this work projects temperature and rainfall in the period 2010-2059 under three RCPs and with two downscaling methods. Thus, six climatic scenarios are generated. The results showed that temperature and rainfall average would increase in the range of 1.7-5.2 and 1.9-9.2%, respectively. Subsequently, flows corresponding to the six different climatic scenarios are simulated with the unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evaporation, and stream flow data (IHACRES) rainfall-runoff model and are input to the Karkheh reservoir. The simulation results indicated increases of 0.9-7.7% in the average flow under the six simulation scenarios during the period of analysis. The second phase of this paper's methodology determines the monthly minimum environmental water demands of the Karkheh river associated with the six simulation scenarios using a hydrological method. The determined environmental demands are compared with historical ones. The results show that the temporal variation of monthly environmental demand would change under climate change conditions. Furthermore, some climatic scenarios project environmental water demand larger than and some of them project less than the baseline one.

Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer

PubMed Central

Paoli, Amélie; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

2018-01-01

In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species’ reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates’ births affects offspring survival and population’s recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females’ physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females’ calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change. PMID:29694410

Susceptibility of the Batoka Gorge hydroelectric scheme to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Gareth P.; Whittington, H.(Bert) W.

2002-07-01

The continuing and increased use of renewable energy sources, including hydropower, is a key strategy to limit the extent of future climate change. Paradoxically, climate change itself may alter the availability of this natural resource, adversely affecting the financial viability of both existing and potential schemes. Here, a model is described that enables the assessment of the relationship between changes in climate and the viability, technical and financial, of hydro development. The planned Batoka Gorge scheme on the Zambezi River is used as a case study to validate the model and to predict the impact of climate change on river flows, electricity production and scheme financial performance. The model was found to perform well, given the inherent difficulties in the task, although there is concern regarding the ability of the hydrological model to reproduce the historic flow conditions of the upper Zambezi Basin. Simulations with climate change scenarios illustrate the sensitivity of the Batoka Gorge scheme to changes in climate. They suggest significant reductions in river flows, declining power production, reductions in electricity sales revenue and consequently an adverse impact on a range of investment measures.

Change of ocean circulation in the East Asian Marginal Seas under different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Hong Sik; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Young Ho

2010-05-01

Global climate models do not properly resolve an ocean environment in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS), which is mainly due to a poor representation of the topography in continental shelf region and a coarse spatial resolution. To examine a possible change of ocean environment under global warming in the EAMS, therefore we used North Pacific Regional Ocean Model. The regional model was forced by atmospheric conditions extracted from the simulation results of the global climate models for the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario as well as the 20th century. The North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated a detailed pattern of temperature change in the EAMS showing locally different rising or falling trend under the future climate condition, while the global climate models simulated a simple pattern like an overall increase. Changes of circulation pattern in the EAMS such as an intrusion of warm water into the Yellow Sea as well as the Kuroshio were also well resolved. Annual variations in volume transports through the Taiwan Strait and the Korea Strait under the future condition were simulated to be different from those under present condition. Relative ratio of volume transport through the Soya Strait to the Tsugaru Strait also responded to the climate condition.

Properties of volcanic soils in cold climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, Elena

2017-04-01

Layers of volcanic ash and the Andosol soils derived from them may play an important role in preserving snow and ice as well as developing permafrost conditions in the immediate vicinity of volcanoes of high elevation or those situated at high latitudes, and land areas, often distant from volcanic activity that are either prone to permafrost or covered by snow and ice, but are affected by the deposition of subaerial ash. The special properties of volcanic ash that are responsible are critically reviewed particularly in relation to recent research in Kamchatka in the Far East of Russia. Of particular importance are the thermal properties and the unfrozen water contents of ash layers and the rate at which the weathering of volcanic glass takes place. Volcanic glass is the most easily weathered component of volcanic ejecta (Shoji et al., 1993; Kimble et al., 2000). There are many specific environmental conditions, including paleoclimate and present-day climate, the composition of volcanic tephra and glaciation history, which cause the differences in weathering and development of volcanic ash soils (Zehetner et al., 2003). The preservation of in situ, unweathered, and unaltered surficial ash-fall deposits in the cold regions has important implications for paleoclimate and glacial history. Ash-fall deposits, which trap and preserve the soils, sediments, and landforms on which they fall, can be used to resolve local climate conditions (temperature and moisture) at the ash site during ash-fall deposition. The preservation of detailed sedimentary features (e.g. bedding in the ash, sharpness of stratigraphic contacts) can tell us about their post-depositional history, whether they have been redeposited by wind or water, or overridden by glaciers (Marchant et al., 1996). Weathering of volcanic glass results in the development of amorphous clay minerals (e.g. allophane, opal, palagonite) but this takes place much slower in cold than under warmer climate conditions. Only few

Using in situ management to conserve biodiversity under climate change.

PubMed

Greenwood, Owen; Mossman, Hannah L; Suggitt, Andrew J; Curtis, Robin J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2016-06-01

Successful conservation will increasingly depend on our ability to help species cope with climate change. While there has been much attention on accommodating or assisting range shifts, less has been given to the alternative strategy of helping species survive climate change through in situ management.Here we provide a synthesis of published evidence examining whether habitat management can be used to offset the adverse impacts on biodiversity of changes in temperature, water availability and sea-level rise. Our focus is on practical methods whereby the local environmental conditions experienced by organisms can be made more suitable.Many studies suggest that manipulating vegetation structure can alter the temperature and moisture conditions experienced by organisms, and several demonstrate that these altered conditions benefit species as regional climatic conditions become unsuitable. The effects of topography on local climatic conditions are even better understood, but the alteration of topography as a climate adaptation tool is not ingrained in conservation practice. Trials of topographic alteration in the field should therefore be a priority for future research.Coastal systems have the natural capacity to keep pace with climate change, but require sufficient sediment supplies and space for landward migration to do so. There is an extensive literature on managed realignment. While the underlying rationale is simple, successful implementation requires careful consideration of elevation and past land use. Even with careful management, restored habitats may not attain the physical and biological attributes of natural habitats. Synthesis and applications . The recent literature provides a compelling case that some of the adverse effects of climate change can be offset by appropriate management. However, much of the evidence for this is indirect and too few studies provide empirical tests of the long-term effectiveness of these management interventions. It is clear

Residential air-conditioning and climate change: voices of the vulnerable.

PubMed

Farbotko, Carol; Waitt, Gordon

2011-12-01

Decreasing the risk of heat-stress is an imperative in health promotion, and is widely accepted as necessary for successful adaptation to climate change. Less well understood are the vulnerabilities that air-conditioning use exacerbates, and conversely, the need for the promotion of alternative strategies for coping with heat wave conditions. This paper considers these issues with a focus on the role of air-conditioning in the everyday life of elderly public housing tenants living alone, a sector of the population that has been identified as being at high risk of suffering heat stress. A vulnerability analysis of domestic air-conditioning use, drawing on literature and policy on air-conditioning practices and ethnographic research with households. Residential air-conditioning exacerbated existing inequities. Case studies of two specifically selected low-income elderly single person households revealed that such households were unlikely to be able to afford this 'solution' to increasing exposure to heat waves in the absence of energy subsidies. Residential air-conditioning use during heat waves caused unintended side-effects, such as system-wide blackouts, which, in turn, led to escalating electricity costs as power companies responded by upgrading infrastructure to cope with periods of excess demand. Air-conditioning also contributed to emissions that cause climate change. Residential air-conditioning is a potentially maladaptive technology for reducing the risk of heat stress.

Field evaluation of smart sensor vehicle detectors at intersections - volume 2 : performance under adverse weather conditions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-04-01

Two microwave-based systems for vehicle detection (by Wavetronix and MS SEDCO) were evaluated at stop bar and : advance zones of a signalized intersection under three adverse weather conditions: (1) wind, (2) snow-covered roadway, : and (3) rain. Wea...

Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaochao; Chen, Fanjun; Chen, Yanling; Gao, Qiang; Yang, Xiaoli; Yuan, Lixing; Zhang, Fusuo; Mi, Guohua

2013-03-01

The impact of global changes on food security is of serious concern. Breeding novel crop cultivars adaptable to climate change is one potential solution, but this approach requires an understanding of complex adaptive traits for climate-change conditions. In this study, plant growth, nitrogen (N) uptake, and yield in relation to climatic resource use efficiency of nine representative maize cultivars released between 1973 and 2000 in China were investigated in a 2-year field experiment under three N applications. The Hybrid-Maize model was used to simulate maize yield potential in the period from 1973 to 2011. During the past four decades, the total thermal time (growing degree days) increased whereas the total precipitation and sunshine hours decreased. This climate change led to a reduction of maize potential yield by an average of 12.9% across different hybrids. However, the potential yield of individual hybrids increased by 118.5 kg ha(-1)  yr(-1) with increasing year of release. From 1973 to 2000, the use efficiency of sunshine hours, thermal time, and precipitation resources increased by 37%, 40%, and 41%, respectively. The late developed hybrids showed less reduction in yield potential in current climate conditions than old cultivars, indicating some adaptation to new conditions. Since the mid-1990s, however, the yield impact of climate change exhibited little change, and even a slight worsening for new cultivars. Modern breeding increased ear fertility and grain-filling rate, and delayed leaf senescence without modification in net photosynthetic rate. The trade-off associated with delayed leaf senescence was decreased grain N concentration rather than increased plant N uptake, therefore N agronomic efficiency increased simultaneously. It is concluded that modern maize hybrids tolerate the climatic changes mainly by constitutively optimizing plant productivity. Maize breeding programs in the future should pay more attention to cope with the limiting

Assessing the interplay of childhood adversities with more recent stressful life events and conditions in predicting panic pathology among adults from the general population.

PubMed

Asselmann, E; Stender, J; Grabe, H J; König, J; Schmidt, C O; Hamm, A O; Pané-Farré, C A

2018-01-01

Although research suggests that (a) childhood adversities and more recent stressful life events/conditions are risk factors for panic pathology and that (b) early life stress increases vulnerability to later psychopathology, it remains unclear whether childhood adversities amplify the association between more recent stressful life events/conditions and panic pathology. Data were derived from a general population sample (Study of Health in Pomerania, SHIP). Lifetime panic pathology was assessed with the Munich Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). Childhood adversities (emotional, physical and sexual abuse; emotional and physical neglect) were assessed with the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ). More recent separation/loss events and long-lasting stressful conditions were assessed with the Stralsund Life Event List (SEL). Individuals with lifetime panic pathology (fearful spell, panic attack or panic disorder, N = 286) were compared to controls without any psychopathology (N = 286, matched for sex and age). Conditional logistic regressions revealed that childhood adversities as well as more recent separation/loss events and long-lasting stressful conditions were associated with panic pathology (OR 1.1-2.5). Moreover, more recent separation/loss events - but not long-lasting stressful conditions - interacted statistically with each of the examined childhood adversities except for sexual abuse in predicting panic pathology (OR 1.1-1.3). That is, separation/loss events were associated more strongly with panic pathology among individuals with higher childhood adversities. Data were assessed retrospectively and might be subject to recall biases. Findings suggest that early childhood adversities amplify the risk of developing panic pathology after experiencing separation or loss events. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Does safety climate moderate the influence of staffing adequacy and work conditions on nurse injuries?

PubMed

Mark, Barbara A; Hughes, Linda C; Belyea, Michael; Chang, Yunkyung; Hofmann, David; Jones, Cheryl B; Bacon, Cynthia T

2007-01-01

Hospital nurses have one of the highest work-related injury rates in the United States. Yet, approaches to improving employee safety have generally focused on attempts to modify individual behavior through enforced compliance with safety rules and mandatory participation in safety training. We examined a theoretical model that investigated the impact on nurse injuries (back injuries and needlesticks) of critical structural variables (staffing adequacy, work engagement, and work conditions) and further tested whether safety climate moderated these effects. A longitudinal, non-experimental, organizational study, conducted in 281 medical-surgical units in 143 general acute care hospitals in the United States. Work engagement and work conditions were positively related to safety climate, but not directly to nurse back injuries or needlesticks. Safety climate moderated the relationship between work engagement and needlesticks, while safety climate moderated the effect of work conditions on both needlesticks and back injuries, although in unexpected ways. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our findings suggest that positive work engagement and work conditions contribute to enhanced safety climate and can reduce nurse injuries.

Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, Lawrence W., Jr.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

2016-03-01

Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945-1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981-2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.

Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

PubMed Central

Harding, Jr., Lawrence W.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

2016-01-01

Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945–1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981–2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries. PMID:27026279

Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay.

PubMed

Harding, Lawrence W; Mallonee, Michael E; Perry, Elgin S; Miller, W David; Adolf, Jason E; Gallegos, Charles L; Paerl, Hans W

2016-03-30

Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km(2) watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945-1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981-2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.

Middle Pliocene vegetation: Reconstructions, paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.; Fleming, R.F.

1996-01-01

The general characteristics of global vegetation during the middle Pliocene warm period can be reconstructed from fossil pollen and plant megafossil data. The largest differences between Pliocene vegetation and that of today occurred at high latitudes in both hemispheres, where warming was pronounced relative to today. In the Northern Hemisphere coniferous forests lived in the modern tundra and polar desert regions, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere southern beech apparently grew in coastal areas of Antarctica. Pliocene middle latitude vegetation differed less, although moister-than-modern conditions supported forest and woodland growth in some regions now covered by steppe or grassland. Pliocene tropical vegetation reflects essentially modern conditions in some regions and slightly cooler-than-or warmer-than- modern climates in other areas. Changes in topography induced by tectonics may be responsible for many of the climatic changes since the Pliocene in both middle and lower latitudes. However, the overall latitudinal progression of climatic conditions on land parallels that seen in the reconstruction of middle Pliocene sea-surface temperatures. Pliocene paleovegetational data was employed to construct a 2????2?? global grid of estimated mid-Pliocene vegetational cover for use as boundary conditions for numerical General Circulation Model simulations of middle Pliocene climates. Continental outlines and topography were first modified to represent the Pliocene landscape on the 2????2?? grid. A modern 1????1?? vegetation grid was simplified and mapped on this Pliocene grid, and then modified following general geographic trends evident in the Pliocene paleovegetation data set.

Space shuttle orbit maneuvering engine reusable thrust chamber: Adverse operating conditions test report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tobin, R. D.

1974-01-01

Test hardware, facilities, and procedures are described along with results of electrically heated tube and channel tests conducted to determine adverse operating condition limits for convectively cooled chambers typical of Space Shuttle Orbit Manuevering Engine designs. Hot-start tests were conducted with corrosion resistant steel and nickel tubes with both monomethylhydrazine and 50-50 coolants. Helium ingestion, in both bubble and froth form, was studied in tubular test sections. Helium bubble ingestion and burn-out limits in rectangular channels were also investigated.

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa Under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Habib, S.; Funk, C. C.; Senay, G. B.; Dinku, T.; Policelli, F. S.; Block, P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Beyene, S.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.

2014-12-01

The development of effective strategies to adapt to changes in the character of droughts and floods in Africa will rely on improved seasonal prediction systems that are robust to an evolving climate baseline and can be integrated into disaster preparedness and response. Many efforts have been made to build models to improve seasonal forecasts in the Greater Horn of Africa region (GHA) using satellite and climate data, but these efforts and models must be improved and translated into future conditions under evolving climate conditions. This has considerable social significance, but is challenged by the nature of climate predictability and the adaptability of coupled natural and human systems facing exposure to climate extremes. To address these issues, work is in progress under a project funded by NASA. The objectives of the project include: 1) Characterize and explain large-scale drivers in the ocean-atmosphere-land system associated with years of extreme flood or drought in the GHA. 2) Evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes. 3) Apply seasonal forecast systems to prediction of socially relevant impacts on crops, flood risk, and economic outcomes, and assess the value of these predictions to decision makers. 4) Evaluate the robustness of seasonal prediction systems to evolving climate conditions. The National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA) is leading this project in collaboration with the USGS, Johns Hopkins University, University of Wisconsin-Madison, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, NASA, and GHA local experts. The project is also designed to have active engagement of end users in various sectors, university researchers, and extension agents in GHA through workshops and/or webinars. This project is expected improve and implement new and existing climate- and remote sensing-based agricultural

Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

2016-04-01

It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on

The effect of abrupt climate changes and climate background conditions in Southern Europe during the last glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Gregor; Martin-Puertas, Celia; Brauer, Achim; Lohmann, Gerrit

2015-04-01

The last glacial period is characterized by abrupt and large temperature shifts in Greenland and the North Atlantic realm. Pollen and sediment data from Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON) have demonstrated a clear imprint of these fluctuations operating at millennial time-scales. Interestingly, basic mean environmental condition changes with respect to temperature and precipitation occurred during MIS4, separating warm and dry conditions during MIS5 from relatively cold and humid conditions within MIS3. This general climate background shift is superposed by distinct millennial-scale variability at MON. Using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model applying boundary conditions at 32 ka BP and pre-industrial conditions as a surrogate for MIS3 and MIS5, we have simulated and analysed characteristic changes in Southern Europe during the last glacial. We find that changes in the mean state at MON are mainly related to a partial shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) convection sites from the Nordic Seas to South of Iceland, the presence of the Fennoscandian ice sheet and lower greenhouse gas concentrations. These background characteristics provide the basis for enhanced zonal moisture transport from the eastern North Atlantic to Middle and Southern Europe. Furthermore, simulations of abrupt climate change scenarios show that a deactivation of the convection sites South of Iceland during MIS3 leads to cooler and dryer conditions at MON. Such temperature and precipitation changes are thought to provide a counter-acting effect on woody vegetation and associated pollen signals at MON. This is in contrast to the impact of abrupt climate perturbation scenarios during MIS5, where no significant precipitation changes are detected. Hence, the simulated changes and underlying mechanisms are largely consistent with the recorded proxy evidence with respect to both, mean state and millennial-scale changes.

Assessment of the State of the Art of Flight Control Technologies as Applicable to Adverse Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reveley, Mary s.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Leone, Karen M.; Kurtoglu, Tolga; Withrow, Colleen A.

2010-01-01

Literature from academia, industry, and other Government agencies was surveyed to assess the state of the art in current Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) aircraft technologies. Over 100 papers from 25 conferences from the time period 2004 to 2009 were reviewed. An assessment of the general state of the art in adaptive flight control is summarized first, followed by an assessment of the state of the art as applicable to 13 identified adverse conditions. Specific areas addressed in the general assessment include flight control when compensating for damage or reduced performance, retrofit software upgrades to flight controllers, flight control through engine response, and finally test and validation of new adaptive controllers. The state-of-the-art assessment applicable to the adverse conditions include technologies not specifically related to flight control, but may serve as inputs to a future flight control algorithm. This study illustrates existing gaps and opportunities for additional research by the NASA IRAC Project

The influence of climatic conditions on the heat balance of the human body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blażejeczyk, Krzysztof; Krawczyk, Barbara

1991-06-01

The structure of heat exchange between the human body and its surroundings has been studied according to M.I. Budyko's model. Comparative measurements were carried out in the Polish Lakeland (maritime, temperate warm climate), in Central Mongolia (continental, temperate cool climate), and in the Kara Kum desert (dry subtropical climate). The results deal with the summer and early autumn seasons. The calculations indicate that the quantitative apportionment of various forms of heat exchange depend on specific weather conditions, which are typical for the distinguished climatic zones.

Flight Testing Under Extreme Climatic Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-01

30 Categorizing Hazards and Risk Levels .. ......... 31 CLIMATIC LABORATORIES ..... .............. 33 UNITED KINGDOM ENVIRONMENTAL...FACILITY .. ........ 33 MCKINLEY CIMATIC LABORATORY .... ............ 34 Climatic Laboratory Description ... ........... 35 Climatic Laboratory...Profile 10 3 Risk Level Chart .... ............. . 32 4 Plan View of Climatic Laboratory Main Chamber 36 5 Relative Humidity vs Ambient Air Temperature for

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2011-01-01

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

Local weather conditions have complex effects on the growth of blue tit nestlings.

PubMed

Mainwaring, Mark C; Hartley, Ian R

2016-08-01

Adverse weather conditions are expected to result in impaired nestling development in birds, but empirical studies have provided equivocal support for such a relationship. This may be because the negative effects of adverse weather conditions are masked by parental effects. Globally, ambient temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds are all expected to increase in a changing climate and so there is a need for a better understanding of the relationship between weather conditions and nestling growth. Here, we describe a correlative study that examined the relationships between local temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds and the growth of individual blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) nestlings in relation to their hatching order and sex. We found that changes in a range of morphological characters were negatively related to both temperature and wind speed, but positively related to rainfall. These patterns were further influenced by the hatching order of the nestlings but not by nestling sex. This suggests that the predicted changes in local weather conditions may have complex effects on nestling growth, but that parents may be able to mitigate the adverse effects via adaptive parental effects. We therefore conclude that local weather conditions have complex effects on avian growth and the implications for patterns of avian growth in a changing climate are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data-Conditioned Distributions of Groundwater Recharge Under Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, D.; Ng, G. C.; Entekhabi, D.; Scanlon, B.

2008-12-01

Groundwater recharge is likely to be impacted by climate change, with changes in precipitation amounts altering moisture availability and changes in temperature affecting evaporative demand. This could have major implications for sustainable aquifer pumping rates and contaminant transport into groundwater reservoirs in the future, thus making predictions of recharge under climate change very important. Unfortunately, in dry environments where groundwater resources are often most critical, low recharge rates are difficult to resolve due to high sensitivity to modeling and input errors. Some recent studies on climate change and groundwater have considered recharge using a suite of general circulation model (GCM) weather predictions, an obvious and key source of uncertainty. This work extends beyond those efforts by also accounting for uncertainty in other land-surface model inputs in a probabilistic manner. Recharge predictions are made using a range of GCM projections for a rain-fed cotton site in the semi-arid Southern High Plains region of Texas. Results showed that model simulations using a range of unconstrained literature-based parameter values produce highly uncertain and often misleading recharge rates. Thus, distributional recharge predictions are found using soil and vegetation parameters conditioned on current unsaturated zone soil moisture and chloride concentration observations; assimilation of observations is carried out with an ensemble importance sampling method. Our findings show that the predicted distribution shapes can differ for the various GCM conditions considered, underscoring the importance of probabilistic analysis over deterministic simulations. The recharge predictions indicate that the temporal distribution (over seasons and rain events) of climate change will be particularly critical for groundwater impacts. Overall, changes in recharge amounts and intensity were often more pronounced than changes in annual precipitation and temperature

Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

2011-07-01

During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps

Quantifying conditional risks for water and energy systems using climate information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2016-12-01

There has been a growing recognition of the multi-scale spatio-temporal organization of climate dynamics, and its implications for predictable, structured risk exposure to populations and infrastructure systems. At the most base level is an understanding that there are some identifiable climate modes, such as ENSO, that are associated with such outcomes. This has led to the emergence of a small cottage industry of analysts who relate different "climate indices" to specific regional outcomes. Such efforts and the associated media interest in these simplified "stories" have led to an increasing appreciation of the phenomenon, and some formal and informal efforts at decision making using such information. However, as was demonstrated through the 2014-16 El Nino forecasting season, many climate scientists over-emphasized the potential risks, while others cautioned the media as to the caveats and uncertainties associated with assuming that the forecasts of ENSO and the expected teleconnections may pan out. At least in certain sectors and regions, significant efforts or expectations as to outcomes were put in place, and some were beneficial, while others failed to manifest. Climate informed predictions for water and energy systems can be thought of as efforts to infer conditional distributions of specific outcomes given information on climate state. Invariably, the climate state may be presented as a very high dimensional spatial set of variables, with limited temporal sampling, while the water and energy attributes may be regional and constitute a much smaller dimension. One may, of course, be interested in the fact that the same climate state may lead to synchronous positive and negative effects across many locations, as may be expected under mid-latitude stationary and transient wave interaction. In this talk, I will provide examples of a few modern statistical and machine learning tools that allow a decomposition of the high dimensional climate state and its relation

Coupling climate conditions, sediment sources and sediment transport in an alpine basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rainato, Riccardo; Picco, Lorenzo; Cavalli, Marco; Mao, Luca; Neverman, Andrew J.; Tarolli, Paolo

2017-04-01

In a fluvial system, mountain basins control sediment export to the lowland rivers. Hence, the analysis of the erosion processes and sediment delivery patterns that act in mountain basins is important. Several studies have investigated the alterations triggered by recent climatic change on the hydrological regime, whilst only a few works have explored the consequences on the sediment dynamics. Here we combined and analyzed the quasi-unique dataset of climatic conditions, landscape response, and sediment export produced, since 1986 in the Rio Cordon basin (5 km2, Eastern Italian Alps) to examine the sediment delivery processes occurring in the last three decades. The temperature, precipitation, and fluvial sediment fluxes in the basin were analyzed using continuous measurement executed by a permanent monitoring station, while the landscape evolution was investigated by three sediment source inventories established in 1994, 2006, and 2016. Thus, the analysis focused on the trends exhibited during the periods 1986-1993, 1994-2006, and 2007-2015. In terms of climatic conditions, three distinct climate forcing stages can be observed in the periods analyzed: a relatively stable phase (1986-1993), a period characterized by temperature and rainfall fluctuations (1994-2006), and a more recent warmer and wetter phase (2007-2015). In the 1986-1993 period, the fluvial sediment fluxes reflected the stable trend exhibited by the climatic conditions. In the subsequent 1994-2006 period, the average temperature and precipitation were in line with that previously observed, although with higher interannual variability. Notwithstanding the climate forcing and the occurrence of high magnitude/low frequency floods that strongly influenced the source areas, between 1994 and 2006 the Rio Cordon basin showed relatively limited erosion activity. Hence, the climatic conditions and the landscape response can only partially explain the strong increase of sediment export recorded in the 1994

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Yield of Major Food Crops: Evidence from Pakistan

PubMed Central

Ali, Sajjad; Liu, Ying; Ishaq, Muhammad; Shah, Tariq; Abdullah; Ilyas, Aasir; Din, Izhar Ud

2017-01-01

Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change, and extreme climatic conditions are threatening food security. This study examines the effects of climate change (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the sunshine) on the major crops of Pakistan (e.g., wheat, rice, maize, and sugarcane). The methods of feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) consistent standard error were employed using time series data for the period 1989 to 2015. The results of the study reveal that maximum temperature adversely affects wheat production, while the effect of minimum temperature is positive and significant for all crops. Rainfall effect towards the yield of a selected crop is negative, except for wheat. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, there is a need for the development of heat- and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties to ensure food security in the country. PMID:28538704

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Yield of Major Food Crops: Evidence from Pakistan.

PubMed

Ali, Sajjad; Liu, Ying; Ishaq, Muhammad; Shah, Tariq; Abdullah; Ilyas, Aasir; Din, Izhar Ud

2017-05-24

Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change, and extreme climatic conditions are threatening food security. This study examines the effects of climate change (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the sunshine) on the major crops of Pakistan (e.g., wheat, rice, maize, and sugarcane). The methods of feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) consistent standard error were employed using time series data for the period 1989 to 2015. The results of the study reveal that maximum temperature adversely affects wheat production, while the effect of minimum temperature is positive and significant for all crops. Rainfall effect towards the yield of a selected crop is negative, except for wheat. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, there is a need for the development of heat- and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties to ensure food security in the country.

A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China.

PubMed

Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

2016-10-07

Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide.

A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

2016-01-01

Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide. PMID:27713530

Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2018-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

Optimization of Water Management of Cranberry Fields under Current and Future Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Létourneau, G.; Gumiere, S.; Mailhot, E.; Rousseau, A. N.

2016-12-01

In North America, cranberry production is on the rise. Since 2005, land area dedicated to cranberry doubled, principally in Canada. Recent studies have shown that sub-irrigation could lead to improvements in yield, water use efficiency and pumping energy requirements compared to conventional sprinkler irrigation. However, the experimental determination of the optimal water table level of each production site may be expensiveand time-consuming. The primary objective of this study is to optimize the water table level as a function of typical soil properties, and climatic conditions observed in major production areas using a numerical modeling approach. The second objective is to evaluate the impacts of projected climatic conditions on water management of cranberry fields. To that end, cranberry-specific management operations such as harvest flooding, rapid drainage following heavy rainfall, or hydric stress management during dry weather conditions were simulated with the HYDRUS 2D software. Results have shown that maintaining the water table approximately at 60 cm provides optimal results for most of the studied soils. However, under certain extreme climatic conditions, the drainage system design may not allow maintaining optimal hydric conditions for cranberry growth. The long-term benefit of this study has potential to advance the design of drainage/sub-irrigation systems.

Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

2014-12-01

Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in

Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors

PubMed Central

Houle, Daniel

2014-01-01

Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada) and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter), the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions. PMID:24949244

High intra-specific variation in avian body condition responses to climate limits generalisation across species

PubMed Central

van der Jeugd, Henk P.; van de Pol, Martijn

2018-01-01

It is generally assumed that populations of a species will have similar responses to climate change, and thereby that a single value of sensitivity will reflect species-specific responses. However, this assumption is rarely systematically tested. High intraspecific variation will have consequences for identifying species- or population-level traits that can predict differences in sensitivity, which in turn can affect the reliability of projections of future climate change impacts. We investigate avian body condition responses to changes in six climatic variables and how consistent and generalisable these responses are both across and within species, using 21 years of data from 46 common passerines across 80 Dutch sites. We show that body condition decreases with warmer spring/early summer temperatures and increases with higher humidity, but other climate variables do not show consistent trends across species. In the future, body condition is projected to decrease by 2050, mainly driven by temperature effects. Strikingly, populations of the same species generally responded just as differently as populations of different species implying that a single species signal is not meaningful. Consequently, species-level traits did not explain interspecific differences in sensitivities, rather population-level traits were more important. The absence of a clear species signal in body condition responses implies that generalisation and identifying species for conservation prioritisation is problematic, which sharply contrasts conclusions of previous studies on the climate sensitivity of phenology. PMID:29466460

Field evaluation of smart sensor vehicle detectors at railroad grade crossings - volume 4 : performance in adverse weather conditions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

The performance of a microwave radar system for vehicle detection at a railroad grade crossing with quadrant gates was evaluated in : adverse weather conditions: rain (light and torrential), snow (light and heavy), dense fog, and wind. The first part...

Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slack, Kelley J.; Schneiderman, Jason S.; Leveton, Lauren B.; Whitmire, Alexandra M.; Picano, James J.

2015-01-01

The NASA commitment to human space flight includes continuing to fly astronauts on the ISS until it is decommissioned as well as possibly returning astronauts to the moon or having astronauts venture to an asteroid or Mars. As missions leave low Earth orbit and explore deeper space, BHP supports and conducts research to enable a risk posture that considers the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders “acceptable given mitigations,” for pre-, in, and post-flight.The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) determines the risk of various mission scenarios using a likelihood (per person per year) by consequences matrix examining those risks across two categories—long term health and operational (within mission). Colors from a stoplight signal are used by HSRB and quickly provide a means of assessing overall perceived risk for a particular mission scenario. Risk associated with the current six month missions on the ISS are classified as “accepted with monitoring” while planetary missions, such as a mission to Mars, are recognized to be a “red” risk that requires mitigation to ensure mission success.Currently, the HSRB deems that the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric outcomes requires mitigation for planetary missions owing to long duration isolation and radiation exposure (see Table 1). While limited research evidence exists from spaceflight, it is well known anecdotally that the shift from the two week shuttle missions to the six month ISS missions renders the psychological stressors of space as more salient over longer duration missions. Shuttle astronauts were expected just to tolerate any stressors that arose during their mission and were successful at doing so (Whitmire et al, 2013). While it is possible to deal with stressors such as social isolation and to live with incompatible crewmembers for two weeks on shuttle, “ignoring it” is much less likely to be a successful coping mechanism

Attributing Climate Conditions for Stable Malaria Transmission to Human Activity in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheldrake, L.; Mitchell, D.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Temperature and precipitation limit areas of stable malaria transmission, but the effects of climate change on the disease remain controversial. Previously, studies have not separated the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability, despite being an essential step in the attribution of climate change impacts. Ensembles of 2900 simulations of regional climate in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2013, one representing realistic conditions and the other how climate might have been in the absence of human influence, were used to force a P.falciparium climate suitability model developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. Strongest signals were detected in areas of unstable transmission, indicating their heightened sensitivity to climatic factors. Evidently, impacts of human-induced climate change were unevenly distributed: the probability of conditions being suitable for stable malaria transmission were substantially reduced (increased) in the Sahel (Greater Horn of Africa (GHOA), particularly in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands). The length of the transmission season was correspondingly shortened in the Sahel and extended in the GHOA, by 1 to 2 months, including in Kericho (Kenya), where the role of climate change in driving recent malaria occurrence is hotly contested. Human-induced warming was primarily responsible for positive anomalies in the GHOA, while reduced rainfall caused negative anomalies in the Sahel. The latter was associated with anthropogenic impacts on the West African Monsoon, but uncertainty in the RCM's ability to reproduce precipitation trends in the region weakens confidence in the result. That said, outputs correspond well with broad-scale changes in observed endemicity, implying a potentially important contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the malaria burden during the past century. Results support the health-framing of climate risk and help indicate hotspots of climate vulnerability, providing

Effects of climate on the productivity of desert truffles beneath hyper-arid conditions.

PubMed

Bradai, Lyès; Bissati, Samia; Chenchouni, Haroun; Amrani, Khaled

2015-07-01

Desert truffles are edible hypogenous fungi that are very well adapted to conditions of aridity in arid and semi-arid regions. This study aims to highlight the influence of climatic factors on the productivity of desert truffles under hyper-arid climatic conditions of the Sahara Desert in Algeria, with assumptions that the more varying climatic factors, mainly rainfall, are more crucial for the development and production of desert truffles. At seven separate sites, desert truffles were collected by systematic sampling between 2006 and 2012. The effects of climate parameters of each site on the productivities (g/ha/year) of desert truffle species were tested using generalized linear models (GLMs). The annual mean of the total production recorded for all three harvested species (Terfezia arenaria, Terfezia claveryi, and Tirmania nivea) was 785.43 ± 743.39 g/ha. Tirmania nivea was commonly present over the sampled sites with an occurrence of 70 ± 10.1%. GLMs revealed that total and specific productivities were closely positively related to autumnal precipitations occurring during October-December, which is the critical pre-breeding period for both desert truffles and host plant species. The other climatic parameters have statistically no effect on the annual variation of desert truffle productivity.

Climate change and children's health.

PubMed

Bernstein, Aaron S; Myers, Samuel S

2011-04-01

To present the latest data that demonstrate how climate change affects children's health and to identify the principal ways in which climate change puts children's health at risk. Data continue to emerge that further implicate climate change as contributing to health burdens in children. Climate models have become even more sophisticated and consistently forecast that greenhouse gas emissions will lead to higher mean temperatures that promote more intense storms and droughts, both of which have profound implications for child health. Recent climate models shed light upon the spread of vector-borne disease, including Lyme disease in North America and malaria in Africa. Modeling studies have found that conditions conducive to forest fires, which generate harmful air pollutants and damage agriculture, are likely to become more prevalent in this century due to the effects of greenhouse gases added to earth's atmosphere. Through many pathways, and in particular via placing additional stress upon the availability of food, clean air, and clean water and by potentially expanding the burden of disease from certain vector-borne diseases, climate change represents a major threat to child health. Pediatricians have already seen and will increasingly see the adverse health effects of climate change in their practices. Because of this, and many other reasons, pediatricians have a unique capacity to help resolve the climate change problem.

Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

2017-03-01

The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

Reproductive responses of an apex predator to changing climatic conditions

Treesearch

Susan Rebecca Salafsky

2015-01-01

Apex predators are ideal subjects for evaluating the effects of changing climatic conditions on the productivity of forested landscapes, because the quality of their breeding habitat depends primarily on the availability of resources at lower trophic levels. Identifying the environmental factors that influence the reproductive output of apex predators can, therefore,...

Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

PubMed

Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

2015-01-01

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

Climate change impact on North Sea wave conditions: a consistent analysis of ten projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabemann, Iris; Groll, Nikolaus; Möller, Jens; Weisse, Ralf

2015-02-01

Long-term changes in the mean and extreme wind wave conditions as they may occur in the course of anthropogenic climate change can influence and endanger human coastal and offshore activities. A set of ten wave climate projections derived from time slice and transient simulations of future conditions is analyzed to estimate the possible impact of anthropogenic climate change on mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea. This set includes different combinations of IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, B2, A1B, and B1), global and regional models, and initial states. A consistent approach is used to provide a more robust assessment of expected changes and uncertainties. While the spatial patterns and the magnitude of the climate change signals vary, some robust features among the ten projections emerge: mean and severe wave heights tend to increase in the eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century in nine to ten projections, but the magnitude of the increase in extreme waves varies in the order of decimeters between these projections. For the western parts of the North Sea more than half of the projections suggest a decrease in mean and extreme wave heights. Comparing the different sources of uncertainties due to models, scenarios, and initial conditions, it can be inferred that the influence of the emission scenario on the climate change signal seems to be less important. Furthermore, the transient projections show strong multi-decadal fluctuations, and changes towards the end of the twenty-first century might partly be associated with internal variability rather than with systematic changes.

Human thermal comfort conditions and urban planning in hot-humid climates-The case of Cuba.

PubMed

Rodríguez Algeciras, José Abel; Coch, Helena; De la Paz Pérez, Guillermo; Chaos Yeras, Mabel; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-08-01

Climate regional characteristics, urban environmental conditions, and outdoors thermal comfort requirements of residents are important for urban planning. Basic studies of urban microclimate can provide information and useful resources to predict and improve thermal conditions in hot-humid climatic regions. The paper analyzes the thermal bioclimate and its influence as urban design factor in Cuba, using Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). Simulations of wind speed variations and shade conditions were performed to quantify changes in thermal bioclimate due to possible modifications in urban morphology. Climate data from Havana, Camagüey, and Santiago of Cuba for the period 2001 to 2012 were used to calculate PET with the RayMan model. The results show that changes in meteorological parameters influence the urban microclimate, and consequently modify the thermal conditions in outdoors spaces. Shade is the predominant strategy to improve urban microclimate with more significant benefits in terms of PET higher than 30 °C. For climatic regions such as the analyzed ones, human thermal comfort can be improved by a wind speed modification for thresholds of PET above 30 °C, and by a wind speed decreases in conditions below 26 °C. The improvement of human thermal conditions is crucial for urban sustainability. On this regards, our study is a contribution for urban designers, due to the possibility of taking advantage of results for improving microclimatic conditions based on urban forms. The results may enable urban planners to create spaces that people prefer to visit, and also are usable in the reconfiguration of cities.

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

2016-03-01

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

2016-04-01

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our

Methane emission from Russian frozen wetlands under conditions of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reneva, S.

2009-04-01

There is growing evidence that the climate change will have significant impact on permafrost, leading to warming, thawing, and disappearance of the frozen ground. Arctic soils contain 14%-30% of all the carbon stored in soils worldwide, many of which is accumulated in the Arctic wetlands (Anisimov & Reneva 2006). Wetlands occupy almost 2 million km2 in the circumpolar region, contain about 50 Gt C, and because of the high groundwater levels favour the production of methane in the anaerobic carbon-rich soil layer (Anisimov et al 2005). Methane has 21-times stronger greenhouse effect than the equal amount of CO2, and there are growing concerns that enhanced CH4 emission may have significant effect on the global radiative forcing. The goal of our study was to estimate the potential increase in the methane emission from Russian frozen wetlands under the projected for the mid-21st century climatic conditions and to evaluate the effect it may have on global radiative forcing. We used digital geographically referenced contours of Russian wetlands from 1:1,000,000-scale topographic maps to calculate the total area (350 000 km2) and the fraction of land they occupy in the nodes of 0.5 by 0.5 degree lat/long regular grid spanning permafrost regions. These data were overlaid with the results from predictive permafrost model (Anisimov & Belolutskaia 2003, Anisimov et al 1999) forced by CCC, HadCM3, GFDL, NCAR climatic projections for 2050 under B1 emission scenario (ref. http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/ and http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/IPCC/). Ultimately, we calculated the increase in the amount of organic material that may potentially become available for decomposition due to deeper seasonal thawing of wetlands in the Russian part of Arctic. Following (Christensen et al 2003a, Christensen et al 2003b) we hypothesised that the temperature and substrate availability combined explain almost entirely the variations in mean annual methane emissions. We used the results of numerous

Central Tropical Pacific Variability And ENSO Response To Changing Climate Boundary Conditions: Evidence From Individual Line Island Foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustic, G. T.; Polissar, P. J.; Ravelo, A. C.; White, S. M.

2017-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a dominant role in Earth's climate variability. Paleoceanographic evidence suggests that ENSO has changed in the past, and these changes have been linked to large-scale climatic shifts. While a close relationship between ENSO evolution and climate boundary conditions has been predicted, testing these predictions remains challenging. These climate boundary conditions, including insolation, the mean surface temperature gradient of the tropical Pacific, global ice volume, and tropical thermocline depth, often co-vary and may work together to suppress or enhance the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO variability. Furthermore, suitable paleo-archives spanning multiple climate states are sparse. We have aimed to test ENSO response to changing climate boundary conditions by generating new reconstructions of mixed-layer variability from sedimentary archives spanning the last three glacial-interglacial cycles from the Central Tropical Pacific Line Islands, where El Niño is strongly expressed. We analyzed Mg/Ca ratios from individual foraminifera to reconstruct mixed-layer variability at discrete time intervals representing combinations of climatic boundary conditions from the middle Holocene to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 8. We observe changes in the mixed-layer temperature variability during MIS 5 and during the previous interglacial (MIS 7) showing significant reductions in ENSO amplitude. Differences in variability during glacial and interglacial intervals are also observed. Additionally, we reconstructed mixed-layer and thermocline conditions using multi-species Mg/Ca and stable isotope measurements to more fully characterize the state of the Central Tropical Pacific during these intervals. These reconstructions provide us with a unique view of Central Tropical Pacific variability and water-column structure at discrete intervals under varying boundary climate conditions with which to assess factors that shape ENSO

Evaluation of video detection systems, volume 4 : effects of adverse weather conditions in the performance of video detection systems.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-01

The performance of three video detection systems (VDS): Iteris, Autoscope, and Peek, was evaluated : using a side-by-side installation at a signalized intersection under various adverse weather conditions including : rain and snow in both day and nig...

Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

2012-04-01

The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

PubMed

Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

The reasons for Chinese nursing staff to report adverse events: a questionnaire survey.

PubMed

Hong, Su; Li, QiuJie

2017-04-01

To investigate the impact of nurses' perception of patient safety culture and adverse event reporting, and demographic factors on adverse event reporting in Chinese hospitals. Accurate and timely adverse event reporting is integral in promoting patient safety and professional learning around the incident. In a cross-sectional survey, a sample of 919 nurses completed a structured questionnaire composed of two validated instruments measuring nurses' perception of patient safety culture and adverse event reporting. Associations between the variables were examined using multiple linear regression analysis. The positive response rates of five dimensions of the Patient Safety Culture Assessment Scale varied from 47.55% to 80.62%. The accuracy rate of Adverse Event Reporting Perception Scale was 63.16%. Five hundred and thirty-one (58.03%) nurses did not report adverse event in past 12 months. Six variables were found to be associated with nurses' adverse event reporting: total work experience (P = 0.003), overall patient safety culture score (P < 0.001), safety climate (P < 0.001), teamwork climate (P < 0.001), overall the adverse event reporting perception scale score (P = 0.003) and importance or reporting (P = 0.002). The results confirmed that improvements in the patient safety culture and nurses' perception of adverse event reporting were related to an increase in voluntary adverse event reporting. The knowledge of adverse event reporting should be integrated into the patient safety curriculum. Interventions that target a specific domain are necessary to improve the safety culture. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climatic conditions produce contrasting influences on demographic traits in a long-distance Arctic migrant.

PubMed

Cleasby, Ian R; Bodey, Thomas W; Vigfusdottir, Freydis; McDonald, Jenni L; McElwaine, Graham; Mackie, Kerry; Colhoun, Kendrew; Bearhop, Stuart

2017-03-01

The manner in which patterns of variation and interactions among demographic rates contribute to population growth rate (λ) is key to understanding how animal populations will respond to changing climatic conditions. Migratory species are likely to be particularly sensitive to climatic conditions as they experience a range of different environments throughout their annual cycle. However, few studies have provided fully integrated demographic analyses of migratory populations in response to changing climatic conditions. Here, we employed integrated population models to demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a short but critical period play a central role in the demography of a long-distance migrant, the light-bellied Brent goose (Branta bernicla hrota). Female survival was positively associated with June North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values, whereas male survival was not. In contrast, breeding productivity was negatively associated with June NAO, suggesting a trade-off between female survival and reproductive success. Both adult female and adult male survival showed low temporal variation, whereas there was high temporal variation in recruitment and breeding productivity. In addition, while annual population growth was positively correlated with annual breeding productivity, a sensitivity analysis revealed that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. Our results demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a relatively short-time window at the start of the breeding season play a critical role in shaping the demography of a long-distant Arctic migrant. Crucially, different demographic rates responded in opposing directions to climatic variation, emphasising the need for integrated analysis of multiple demographic traits when understanding population dynamics. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

2012-04-01

The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

PubMed

Shao, Wanyun; Goidel, Kirby

2016-11-01

What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents' perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate-related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15- and 19-year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15- and 19-year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, "seeing is not believing." Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions-rather than objectively measured weather conditions-influence climate-related attitudes. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Determination and representation of electric charge distributions associated with adverse weather conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rompala, John T.

1992-01-01

Algorithms are presented for determining the size and location of electric charges which model storm systems and lightning strikes. The analysis utilizes readings from a grid of ground level field mills and geometric constraints on parameters to arrive at a representative set of charges. This set is used to generate three dimensional graphical depictions of the set as well as contour maps of the ground level electrical environment over the grid. The composite, analytic and graphic package is demonstrated and evaluated using controlled input data and archived data from a storm system. The results demonstrate the packages utility as: an operational tool in appraising adverse weather conditions; a research tool in studies of topics such as storm structure, storm dynamics, and lightning; and a tool in designing and evaluating grid systems.

Thermal performance of a Concrete Cool Roof under different climatic conditions of Mexico

DOE PAGES

Hernández-Pérez, I.; Álvarez, G.; Gilbert, H.; ...

2014-11-27

A cool roof is an ordinary roof with a reflective coating on the exterior surface which has a high solar reflectance and high thermal emittance. These properties let the roof keep a lower temperature than a standard roof under the same conditions. In this work, the thermal performance of a concrete roof with and without insulation and with two colors has been analyzed using the finite volume method. The boundary conditions of the external roof surface were taken from hourly averaged climatic data of four cities. For the internal surface, it is considered that the building is air-conditioned and themore » inside air has a constant temperature. The interior surface temperature and the heat flux rates into the roofs were obtained for two consecutive days in order to assess the benefits of a cool roofs in different climates.« less

The Formation of Teacher Work Teams under Adverse Conditions: Towards a More Realistic Scenario for Schools in Distress

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mintrop, Rick; Charles, Jessica

2017-01-01

Group formation studies are rare in the literature on teacher professional learning communities (PLCs). But they are needed to render realistic scenarios and design interventions for practitioners who work in schools where teachers encounter distress and social adversity. Under these conditions, we may need approaches to PLC development that are…

Long-term sustainability of the landscape in new climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubeckova, D.; Krocova, S.

2017-10-01

The long-term sustainability of the landscape and its natural environment must be the decisive task of the public administration and, in the wider concept, of every citizen. In new climatic conditions, this need has intensified. The following article suggests in a basic scope whether the above-mentioned task can be accomplished, and what means of solution should be used.

Biocrust spectral response as affected by changing climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Guirado, Emilio; Escribano, Paula; Reyes, Andres; Weber, Bettina

2017-04-01

Drylands are characterized by scarce vegetation coverage and low rates of biological activity, both constrained by water scarcity. Under these conditions, biocrusts form key players of ecosystem functioning. They comprise complex poikilohydric communities of cyanobacteria, algae, lichens and bryophytes together with heterotrophic bacteria, archaea and fungi, which cover the uppermost soil layer. Biocrusts can cope with prolonged phases of drought, being rapidly re-activated when water becomes available again. Upon reactivation, biocrusts almost immediately turn green, fixing atmospheric carbon and nitrogen and increasing ecosystem productivity. However, due to their inconspicuous growth they have only rarely been analysed and spatially and temporally continuous information on their response to water pulses is missing. These data are particularly important under changing climatic conditions predicting an increase in aridity and variations in precipitation patterns within most of the dryland regions. In the present study, we used multi-temporal series of NDVI obtained from LANDSAT images to analyze biocrust and vegetation response to water pulses within the South African Succulent Karoo and we predicted their future response under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that biocrust and vegetation greenness are controlled by aridity, solar radiation and soil water content, showing similar annual patterns, with minimum values during dry periods that increased within the rainy season and decreased again after the onset of drought. However, biocrusts responded faster to water availability and turned green almost immediately after small rains, producing a small NDVI peak only few days after rainfall, whereas more time was needed for vegetation to grow new green tissue. However, once the photosynthetic tissue of vegetation was restored, it caused the highest increase of NDVI values after the rain. Predicted changes in precipitation patterns and aridity

Quantifying the risks of winter damage on overwintering crops under future climates: Will low-temperature damage be more likely in warmer climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, G.; Weih, M.

2014-12-01

Autumn-sown crops act as winter cover crop, reducing soil erosion and nutrient leaching, while potentially providing higher yields than spring varieties in many environments. Nevertheless, overwintering crops are exposed for longer periods to the vagaries of weather conditions. Adverse winter conditions, in particular, may negatively affect the final yield, by reducing crop survival or its vigor. The net effect of the projected shifts in climate is unclear. On the one hand, warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of low temperatures, thereby reducing damage risk. On the other hand, warmer temperatures, by reducing plant acclimation level and the amount and duration of snow cover, may increase the likelihood of damage. Thus, warmer climates may paradoxically result in more extensive low temperature damage and reduced viability for overwintering plants. The net effect of a shift in climate is explored by means of a parsimonious probabilistic model, based on a coupled description of air temperature, snow cover, and crop tolerable temperature. Exploiting an extensive dataset of winter wheat responses to low temperature exposure, the risk of winter damage occurrence is quantified under conditions typical of northern temperate latitudes. The full spectrum of variations expected with climate change is explored, quantifying the joint effects of alterations in temperature averages and their variability as well as shifts in precipitation. The key features affecting winter wheat vulnerability to low temperature damage under future climates are singled out.

Post-glacial Paleo-oceanographic and Paleo-climatic Conditions and Linkages Along the West Coast of Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallimore, A.; Enkin, R. J.; McKechnie, I.

2006-12-01

Along the west coast of Canada, our continuing studies of annually laminated marine sediments in anoxic fjords illustrate the changing environment as glaciers retreated from this area about 12 ka y BP. New data from mid-coastal British Columbia expands our knowledge of the interplay between climate and ocean dynamics in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, and defines the evolution of modern climate conditions as ice receded from the coast, followed by the establishment of modern oceanographic and climatic conditions about 6,000 ky BP. The Late Pleistocene and Holocene record also marks dramatic changes in sea level, climate, coastal oceanographic dynamics and glacial sedimentary source and transport, with implications for the possibility of early human migration routes and glacial refugia. Changes in pre-historical aboriginal settlement sites and food sources also give indications of a dynamic Holocene land and seascape as modern conditions became established. Excellent chronological control is provided by complementary yet independent dating methods including radiocarbon dates on both plants and shells, identification of the Mazama Ash, varve counting and paleomagnetic/paleosecular variation correlations.

Verification of GCM-generated regional seasonal precipitation for current climate and of statistical downscaling estimates under changing climate conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Busuioc, A.; Storch, H. von; Schnur, R.

Empirical downscaling procedures relate large-scale atmospheric features with local features such as station rainfall in order to facilitate local scenarios of climate change. The purpose of the present paper is twofold: first, a downscaling technique is used as a diagnostic tool to verify the performance of climate models on the regional scale; second, a technique is proposed for verifying the validity of empirical downscaling procedures in climate change applications. The case considered is regional seasonal precipitation in Romania. The downscaling model is a regression based on canonical correlation analysis between observed station precipitation and European-scale sea level pressure (SLP). Themore » climate models considered here are the T21 and T42 versions of the Hamburg ECHAM3 atmospheric GCM run in time-slice mode. The climate change scenario refers to the expected time of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations around the year 2050. Generally, applications of statistical downscaling to climate change scenarios have been based on the assumption that the empirical link between the large-scale and regional parameters remains valid under a changed climate. In this study, a rationale is proposed for this assumption by showing the consistency of the 2 x CO{sub 2} GCM scenarios in winter, derived directly from the gridpoint data, with the regional scenarios obtained through empirical downscaling. Since the skill of the GCMs in regional terms is already established, it is concluded that the downscaling technique is adequate for describing climatically changing regional and local conditions, at least for precipitation in Romania during winter.« less

Increasing the Adaptive Capacity of the Organism When Exposed to Adverse Environmental Factors Through Phytoadaptogens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babii, N. V.; Pomozova, V. A.; Kiseleva, T. F.; Romanenko, V. O.

2017-07-01

The Problem of improving the quality of life of the population in modern conditions is the most relevant. The level of human health largely depends on the quality of the environment. Of special importance are the risk factors for the spread of diseases like environmental pollution, social conditions and bad habits. To the emergence of ecologically dependent diseases leads the combined impact of technogenic, social-economic, natural-climatic factors. The introduction of the principles of biotechnology, nanotechnology and innovations in industrial processing of plant resources, especially natural adaptogens, contributes to the production of balanced, ecologically clean food products functional purpose, the use of which will significantly minimize the adverse effects of the environment on humans.

Does the Size of the Effect of Adverse Events at High Ages on Daily-Life Physical Functioning Depend on the Economic Conditions Around Birth?

PubMed

Scholte, Robert; van den Berg, Gerard J; Lindeboom, Maarten; Deeg, Dorly J H

2017-01-01

This paper considers determinants of physical functional limitations in daily-life activities at high ages. Specifically, we quantify the extent to which the impact of adverse life events on this outcome is larger in case of exposure to adverse economic conditions early in life. Adverse life events include bereavement, severe illness in the family, and the onset of chronic diseases. We use a longitudinal data set of individuals born in the first decades of the 20th century. The business cycle around birth is used as an indicator of economic conditions early in life. We find that the extent to which functional limitations suffer from the onset of chronic diseases is larger if the individual was born in a recession. The long-run effect of economic conditions early in life on functional limitations at high ages runs primarily via this life event. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ocean climate and seal condition.

PubMed

Le Boeuf, Burney J; Crocker, Daniel E

2005-03-28

The condition of many marine mammals varies with fluctuations in productivity and food supply in the ocean basin where they forage. Prey is impacted by physical environmental variables such as cyclic warming trends. The weaning weight of northern elephant seal pups, Mirounga angustirostris, being closely linked to maternal condition, indirectly reflects prey availability and foraging success of pregnant females in deep waters of the northeastern Pacific. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of ocean climate on foraging success in this deep-diving marine mammal over the course of three decades, using cohort weaning weight as the principal metric of successful resource accrual. The mean annual weaning weight of pups declined from 1975 to the late 1990s, a period characterized by a large-scale, basin-wide warm decadal regime that included multiple strong or long-duration El Niños; and increased with a return to a cool decadal regime from about 1999 to 2004. Increased foraging effort and decreased mass gain of adult females, indicative of reduced foraging success and nutritional stress, were associated with high ocean temperatures. Despite ranging widely and foraging deeply in cold waters beyond coastal thermoclines in the northeastern Pacific, elephant seals are impacted significantly by ocean thermal dynamics. Ocean warming redistributes prey decreasing foraging success of females, which in turn leads to lower weaning mass of pups. Annual fluctuations in weaning mass, in turn, reflect the foraging success of females during the year prior to giving birth and signals changes in ocean temperature cycles.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

Relationships among hygiene indicators in take-away foodservice establishments and the impact of climatic conditions.

PubMed

Djekic, I; Kuzmanović, J; Anđelković, A; Saračević, M; Stojanović, M M; Tomašević, I

2016-09-01

This paper examined the relationships among hygiene indicators in take-away foodservice establishments and the impact of climatic conditions. A total of 7545 samples were collected encompassing 2050 from food handlers' (HF) hands, 3991 from stainless steel food contact surfaces (FCS) and 1504 samples from plastic FCS. The study covered a period of 43 months. Hygiene-indicator bacteria (total plate count, Enterobacteriaceae Staphylococcus) were determined from the samples collected from 559 different take-away establishments. Climatic conditions were evaluated in respect to the outside temperature, pressure, humidity and precipitation. Logistic regression confirmed that the presence of precipitation was associated with an increased likelihood of exhibiting both Enterobacteriaceae and Staphylococcus on HF' hands as well as exhibiting Enterobacteriaceae on both types of FCS. Numerable Enterobacteriaceae and Staphylococcus levels on HF' hands were detected when higher outside temperatures and higher precipitations occurred. Higher outside temperatures were observed when Enterobacteriaceae were detected on both plastics (P < 0·05) and stainless steel (P > 0·05). Higher precipitation was observed when Enterobacteriaceae was detected on stainless steel while in contrast, this indicator was detected on plastics in periods with lower precipitation. This research confirms relationships between hygiene indicators in take-aways and climatic conditions, mostly temperature and precipitation. This study provides another perspective into the possible nature of cross-contamination and foodborne outbreaks originating in foodservice establishments and brings to attention the necessity of analysing various climatic conditions. © 2016 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

PubMed Central

Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

Climate Change and Public Health Policy.

PubMed

Smith, Jason A; Vargo, Jason; Hoverter, Sara Pollock

2017-03-01

Climate change poses real and immediate impacts to the public health of populations around the globe. Adverse impacts are expected to continue throughout the century. Emphasizing co-benefits of climate action for health, combining adaptation and mitigation efforts, and increasing interagency coordination can effectively address both public health and climate change challenges.

Evaluating global reanalysis datasets for provision of boundary conditions in regional climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

2016-11-01

Regional climate modelling studies often begin by downscaling a reanalysis dataset in order to simulate the observed climate, allowing the investigation of regional climate processes and quantification of the errors associated with the regional model. To date choice of reanalysis to perform such downscaling has been made based either on convenience or on performance of the reanalyses within the regional domain for relevant variables such as near-surface air temperature and precipitation. However, the only information passed from the reanalysis to the regional model are the atmospheric temperature, moisture and winds at the location of the boundaries of the regional domain. Here we present a methodology to evaluate reanalyses derived lateral boundary conditions for an example domain over southern Africa using satellite data. This study focusses on atmospheric temperature and moisture which are easily available. Five commonly used global reanalyses (NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA-I, 20CRv2, and MERRA) are evaluated against the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite temperature and relative humidity over boundaries of two domains centred on southern Africa for the years 2003-2012 inclusive. The study reveals that MERRA is the most suitable for climate mean with NCEP1 the next most suitable. For climate variability, ERA-I is the best followed by MERRA. Overall, MERRA is preferred for generating lateral boundary conditions for this domain, followed by ERA-I. While a "better" LBC specification is not the sole precursor to an improved downscaling outcome, any reduction in uncertainty associated with the specification of LBCs is a step in the right direction.

Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Patz, Jonathan A

2015-01-01

The environmental and health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and poor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights and social justice. Environmental consequences include increased temperature, excess precipitation in some areas and droughts in others, extreme weather events, and increased sea level. These consequences adversely affect agricultural production, access to safe water, and worker productivity, and, by inundating land or making land uninhabitable and uncultivatable, will force many people to become environmental refugees. Adverse health effects caused by climate change include heat-related disorders, vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, respiratory and allergic disorders, malnutrition, collective violence, and mental health problems. These environmental and health consequences threaten civil and political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights, including rights to life, access to safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. On a national or local level, those people who are most vulnerable to the adverse environmental and health consequences of climate change include poor people, members of minority groups, women, children, older people, people with chronic diseases and disabilities, those residing in areas with a high prevalence of climate-related diseases, and workers exposed to extreme heat or increased weather variability. On a global level, there is much inequity, with low-income countries, which produce the least greenhouse gases (GHGs), being more adversely affected by climate change than high-income countries, which produce substantially higher amounts of GHGs yet are less immediately affected. In addition, low-income countries have far less capability to adapt to climate change than high-income countries. Adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change needed to protect human society must also be planned to protect

Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2014-05-01

Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

Irrigated sugarbeet sucrose content in relation to growing season climatic conditions in the northwest U.S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The potential effects of changing climate on world food production have become a political and scientific focus. This study was conducted to investigate linkages between seasonal climatic conditions and sugarbeet sucrose content in southern Idaho and eastern Oregon. Sucrose content of irrigated suga...

EPA's Role in International Climate Adaptation

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change will impact communities around the world in varying ways and to varying degrees, over time. Yet people living in developing countries are likely to be more adversely affected by current and anticipated climate changes, especially cities.

Southern Hemisphere anticyclonic circulation drives oceanic and climatic conditions in late Holocene southernmost Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahn, Annette; Schefuß, Enno; Andò, Sergio; Cawthra, Hayley C.; Frenzel, Peter; Kugel, Martin; Meschner, Stephanie; Mollenhauer, Gesine; Zabel, Matthias

2017-06-01

Due to the high sensitivity of southern Africa to climate change, a reliable understanding of its hydrological system is crucial. Recent studies of the regional climatic system have revealed a highly complex interplay of forcing factors on precipitation regimes. This includes the influence of the tropical easterlies, the strength of the southern hemispheric westerlies as well as sea surface temperatures along the coast of the subcontinent. However, very few marine records have been available in order to study the coupling of marine and atmospheric circulation systems. Here we present results from a marine sediment core, recovered in shallow waters off the Gouritz River mouth on the south coast of South Africa. Core GeoB18308-1 allows a closer view of the last ˜ 4 kyr. Climate sensitive organic proxies, like the distribution and isotopic composition of plant-wax lipids as well as indicators for sea surface temperatures and soil input, give information on oceanographic and hydrologic changes during the recorded time period. Moreover, the micropaleontology, mineralogical and elemental composition of the sediments reflect the variability of the terrigenous input to the core site. The combination of down-core sediment signatures and a catchment-wide provenance study indicate that the Little Ice Age ( ˜ 300-650 cal yr BP) was characterized by climatic conditions favorable to torrential flood events. The Medieval Climate Anomaly ( ˜ 950-650 cal yr BP) is expressed by lower sea surface temperatures in the Mossel Bay area and humid conditions in the Gouritz River catchment. These new results suggest that the coincidence of humid conditions and cooler sea surface temperatures along the south coast of South Africa resulted from a strengthened and more southerly anticyclonic circulation. Most probably, the transport of moisture from the Indian Ocean by strong subtropical easterlies was coupled with Agulhas Bank upwelling pulses, which were initiated by an increase in

How do Changes in Hydro-Climate Conditions Alter the Risk of Infection With Fasciolosis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

2017-12-01

Fasciolosis is a widespread parasitic disease of livestock and is emerging as a major zoonosis. Since the parasite and its intermediate host live and develop in the environment, risk of infection is directly affected by climatic-environmental conditions. Changes in disease prevalence, seasonality and distribution have been reported in recent years and attributed to altered temperature and rainfall patterns, raising concerns about the effects of climate change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to understand how changes in climate-environmental drivers may alter the dynamics of disease risk in a quantitative way, to guide parasite control strategies and interventions in the coming decades. In a previous work, we developed and tested a novel mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Fasciolosis, which explicitly represents the parasite life-cycle in connection with key environmental processes, allowing to capture the impact of previously unseen conditions. In this study, we use the new mechanistic model to assess the sensitivity of infection rates to changes in climate-environmental factors. This is challenging as processes underlying disease transmission are complex and interacting, and may have contrasting effects on the parasite life-cycle stages. To this end, we set up a sensitivity analysis framework to investigate in a structured way which factors play a key role in controlling the magnitude, timing and spread of infection, and how the sensitivity of disease risk varies in time and space. Moreover, we define synthetic scenarios to explore the space of possible variability of the hydro-climate drivers and investigate conditions that lead to critical levels of infection. The study shows how the new model combined with the sensitivity analysis framework can support decision-making, providing useful information for disease management.

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

2013-01-15

The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to

Biological and physical factors controlling aggregate stability under different climatic conditions in Southern Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ángel Gabarrón-Galeote, Miguel; Damián Ruiz-Sinoga, Jose; Francisco Martinez-Murillo, Juan; Lavee, Hanoch

2013-04-01

Soil aggregation is a key factor determining the soil structure. The presence of stable aggregates is essential to maintain a good soil structure, that in turn plays an important role in sustaining agricultural productivity and preserving environmental quality. A wide range of physical and biological soil components are involved in the aggregate formation and stabilization, namely clay mineral content; the quantity and quality of organic matter, that can be derived from plants, fungal hyphae, microorganism and soil animals; and the soil water content. Climatic conditions, through their effect on soil water content, vegetation cover and organic matter content, are supposed to affect soil aggregation. Thus the main objective of this research is to analyse the effect of organic matter, clay content and soil water content on aggregate stability along a climatic transect in Southern Spain. This study was conducted in four catchments along a pluviometric gradient in the South of Spain (rainfall depth decreases from west to east from more than 1000 mm year-1 to less than 300 mm year-1) and was based on a methodology approximating the climatic gradient in Mediterranean conditions. The selected sites shared similar conditions of geology, topography and soil use, which allowed making comparisons among them and relating the differences to the pluviometric conditions. In February 2007, 250 disturbed and undisturbed samples from the first 5cm of the soil were collected along the transect. We measured the aggregate stability, organic matter, clay content and bulk density of every sample. In the field we measured rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, soil water content, vegetation cover and presence of litter. Our results suggest that aggregate stability is a property determined by a great number of highly variable factors, which can make extremely difficult to predict its behavior taking in

Wetter and cooler: pronounced temperate climate conditions in western Anatolia during the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güner, Tuncay H.; Bouchal, Johannes M.; Köse, Nesibe; Denk, Thomas

2017-04-01

During the course of an ongoing palaeobotanical investigation of the lignite mines of the Yataǧan Basin, Muǧla province, Turkey, the fossil leaves of the Eskihisar lignite mine were analysed using the Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP). The investigated fossil leaves derive from the marls and clayey limestones (Sekköy Member) overlying the exploited lignite seam (uppermost Turgut Member). The age of the studied sedimentary rocks is well constrained by vertebrate fossils occuring in the main lignite seam (MN6 → Gomphoterium angustidens Cuvier, 1817; Percrocuta miocenica Pavlov & Thenius, 1965) and at the Yenieskihisar Mammal locality (MN7/8, uppermost Sekköy Member). 719 specimens were measured and assigned to 65 leaf morphotypes. Using this data, CLAMP reconstructed the following climate parameters: mean annual temperature (MAT) 12.58 (+/-1.5)°C, warm month mean temperature (WMMT) 23.72 (+/-2.5)°C, cold month mean temperature (WMMT) 2.29 (+/-2)°C, length of growing season (LGS) 7.52 (+/-0.75) month, mean growing season precipitation (GSP) 130.1 (+/-40) cm, precipitation during the three wettest months (3-WET) 67 (+/-25) cm, precipitation during the three driest months (3-DRY) 20.4 (+/-7.5) cm. The reconstructed parameters are too cool for tropical climates (the 18˚ C winter isotherm being a threshold for tropical climates) and indicate temperate conditions; climates fitting these parameters (Cfb according to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification) can be found today in regions known as "Tertiary relict areas" (e.g. Black sea coast of Northeast Turkey, eastern China, Japan). Based on a substantial amount of rainfall during the three driest months, it is further possible to exclude markedly seasonal climates such as a summer-dry and winter-wet Mediterranean climate and a summer-wet and winter-dry monsoon climate as commonly found along the southern foothills of the Himalayas and in southwestern China. Instead, a fully humid Cf climate is

Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change

PubMed Central

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica H.; Carlton, Elizabeth J.; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C.; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy J.; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. Because certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China’s rapid progress toward reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8–85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls due to non-climate reasons. PMID:25530812

Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change.

PubMed

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica H; Carlton, Elizabeth J; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy J; Remais, Justin V

2014-12-01

Despite China's rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. Because certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China's rapid progress toward reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8-85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls due to non-climate reasons.

Climate risk index for Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mysiak, Jaroslav; Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

2018-06-01

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Denis; Person, Mark; Daannen, Ronnie; Locke, Sharon; Dahlstrom, Dave; Zabielski, Victor; Winter, Thomas C.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Wright, Herb; Ito, Emi; Nieber, John L.; Gutowski, William J.

2006-04-01

This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, D.; Person, M.; Daannen, R.; Locke, S.; Dahlstrom, D.; Zabielski, V.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Wright, H.; Ito, E.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.

2006-01-01

This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge

Diverging Responses of Tropical Andean Biomes under Future Climate Conditions

PubMed Central

Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

2013-01-01

Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%–17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for

A framework for evaluating statistical downscaling performance under changing climatic conditions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, K. W.; Balaji, V.; Lanzante, J.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Hayhoe, K.; Stoner, A. K.; Gaitan, C. F.

2013-12-01

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods may be viewed as generating a value-added product - a refinement of global climate model (GCM) output designed to add finer scale detail and to address GCM shortcomings via a process that gleans information from a combination of observations and GCM-simulated climate change responses. Making use of observational data sets and GCM simulations representing the same historical period, cross-validation techniques allow one to assess how well an SD method meets this goal. However, lacking observations of future, the extent to which a particular SD method's skill might degrade when applied to future climate projections cannot be assessed in the same manner. Here we illustrate and describe extensions to a 'perfect model' experimental design that seeks to quantify aspects of SD method performance both for a historical period (1979-2008) and for late 21st century climate projections. Examples highlighting cases in which downscaling performance deteriorates in future climate projections will be discussed. Also, results will be presented showing how synthetic datasets having known statistical properties may be used to further isolate factors responsible for degradations in SD method skill under changing climatic conditions. We will describe a set of input files used to conduct these analyses that are being made available to researchers who wish to utilize this experimental framework to evaluate SD methods they have developed. The gridded data sets cover a region centered on the contiguous 48 United States with a grid spacing of approximately 25km, have daily time resolution (e.g., maximum and minimum near-surface temperature and precipitation), and represent a total of 120 years of model simulations. This effort is consistent with the 2013 National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop goal of supporting a community approach to promote the informed use of downscaled climate projections.

Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast.

PubMed

Ceglar, Andrej; Toreti, Andrea; Prodhomme, Chloe; Zampieri, Matteo; Turco, Marco; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

2018-01-22

Seasonal crop yield forecasting represents an important source of information to maintain market stability, minimise socio-economic impacts of crop losses and guarantee humanitarian food assistance, while it fosters the use of climate information favouring adaptation strategies. As climate variability and extremes have significant influence on agricultural production, the early prediction of severe weather events and unfavourable conditions can contribute to the mitigation of adverse effects. Seasonal climate forecasts provide additional value for agricultural applications in several regions of the world. However, they currently play a very limited role in supporting agricultural decisions in Europe, mainly due to the poor skill of relevant surface variables. Here we show how a combined stress index (CSI), considering both drought and heat stress in summer, can predict maize yield in Europe and how land-surface initialised seasonal climate forecasts can be used to predict it. The CSI explains on average nearly 53% of the inter-annual maize yield variability under observed climate conditions and shows how concurrent heat stress and drought events have influenced recent yield anomalies. Seasonal climate forecast initialised with realistic land-surface achieves better (and marginally useful) skill in predicting the CSI than with climatological land-surface initialisation in south-eastern Europe, part of central Europe, France and Italy.

Estimating changes to groundwater discharge temperature under altered climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manga, M.; Burns, E. R.; Zhu, Y.; Zhan, H.; Williams, C. F.; Ingebritsen, S.; Dunham, J.

2017-12-01

Changes in groundwater temperature resulting from climate-driven boundary conditions (recharge and land surface temperature) can be evaluated using new analytical solutions of the groundwater heat transport equation. These steady-state solutions account for land-surface boundary conditions, hydrology, and geothermal and viscous heating, and can be used to identify the key physical processes that control thermal responses of groundwater-fed ecosystems to climate change, in particular (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Also, existing transient solutions of conduction are compared with a new solution for advective transport of heat to estimate the timing of groundwater-discharge response to changes in recharge and land surface temperature. As an example, the new solutions are applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated Fall River Springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, high-elevation groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions, but as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes to the average annual land surface temperature will also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive timescale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the lower-elevation Fall River Springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

PubMed

George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

2017-11-01

Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

2016-04-01

Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

Rapid change, climate adversity and the next 'big dry': older farmers' mental health.

PubMed

Polain, John David; Berry, Helen Louise; Hoskin, John Oliver

2011-10-01

To describe the experiences of older farmers in the face of prolonged drought and rapid change. Content analysis of issues and priorities raised in semi-structured community forums. Rural centres in NSW. One hundred and fifty older farmers, their families, Industry and Investment NSW, rural financial and mental health services, the Country Women's Association and other non-government agencies. Five public forums organised under the Rural Adversity Mental Health Program. Prolonged drought caused pressures on farmers that compounded the usual stresses of farming and of ageing. These were experienced in the context of rapid social and industry change, fuel price volatility and the insidious threat of climate change. Three main themes were articulated: loss, government compliance pressures and difficulties accessing and/or inappropriate services. Older farmers felt an overwhelming sense of loss: of profitability and professional success, community status, physical well-being and comfort, the ability to participate in the modern world and, above all, of relationships (partners, children and friends moving away). They interpreted government compliance requirements as evidence of community and government loss of trust in famers. They resisted using the few mental health services that might be available, fearing being labelled as 'crazy' and discouraged by the culturally inappropriate way in which services were offered. Older farmers would benefit from joint services related to health and well-being simultaneously with modern business management offered in trusted, comfortable settings. © 2011 The Authors. Australian Journal of Rural Health © National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

Delays in reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica H.; Carlton, Elizabeth J.; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C.; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy J.; Remais, Justin V.

2014-12-01

Despite China's rapid progress in improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. As certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrhoeal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China's rapid progress towards reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8-85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls owing to non-climate reasons.

Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

2016-09-01

Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

Climate risk index for Italy.

PubMed

Mysiak, Jaroslav; Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

2018-06-13

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Authors.

Climate risk index for Italy

PubMed Central

Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

2018-01-01

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712797

An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

2016-12-01

The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

Early and late maturing grain sorghum under variable climatic conditions in the Texas High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the Texas High Plains, variable climatic conditions prevail between and within growing seasons. As this area continues to experience drought conditions, and water resources for irrigation become more limited, sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] production may become a more popular choice to sus...

Thermal State Of Permafrost In Urban Environment Under Changing Climatic Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Streletskiy, D. A.; Grebenets, V. I.; Kerimov, A. G.; Kurchatova, A.; Andruschenko, F.; Gubanov, A.

2015-12-01

Risks and damage, caused by deformation of building and constructions in cryolithozone, are growing for decades. Worsening of cryo-ecological situation and loss of engineering-geocryological safety are induced by both technogenic influences on frozen basement and climate change. In such towns on permafrost as Vorkuta, Dixon more than 60% of objects are deformed, in Yakutsk, Igarka- nearly 40%, in Norilsk, Talnakh, Mirnij 35%, in old indigenous villages - approximately 100%; more than 80% ground dams with frozen cores are in poor condition. This situation is accompanied by activation of dangerous cryogenic processes. For example in growing seasonally-thaw layer is strengthening frost heave of pipeline foundation: only on Yamburg gas condensate field (Taz Peninsula) are damaged by frost heave and cut or completely replaced 3000 - 5000 foundations of gas pipelines. Intensity of negative effects strongly depends on regional geocryology, technogenic loads and climatic trends, and in Arctic we see a temperature rise - warming, which cause permafrost temperature rise and thaw). In built areas heat loads are more diverse: cold foundations (under the buildings with ventilated cellars or near termosyphons) are close to warm areas with technogenic beddings (mainly sandy), that accumulate heat, close to underground collectors for communications, growing thaw zones around, close to storages of snows, etc. Note that towns create specific microclimate with higher air temperature. So towns are powerful technogenic (basically, thermal) presses, placed on permafrost; in cooperation with climate changes (air temperature rise, increase of precipitation) they cause permafrost degradation. The analysis of dozens of urban thermal fields, formed in variable cryological and soil conditions, showed, that nearly 70% have warming trend, 20% - cooling and in 10% of cases the situation after construction is stable. Triggered by warming of climate changes of vegetation, depth and temperature of

The Five A's: what do patients want after an adverse event?

PubMed

Cox, Wendy

2007-01-01

After an adverse event, Five A's: Acknowledgment, Apology, All the Facts, Assurance and Appropriate Compensation, serve to meet the essential needs of patients and their families. This simple mnemonic creates a clear framework of understanding for the actions health professionals need to take to manage errors and adverse events in an empathic and patient-oriented fashion. While not all patients demand or need compensation, most need at least the first four A's. Patient-centered communication using this simple framework following an adverse event will foster a climate of understanding and frank discussion, addressing the emotional and physical needs of the whole patient and family.

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index

PubMed Central

Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; dos Santos, Rhavena Barbosa; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied—social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change. PMID:29444086

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

PubMed

Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

Positive impact of bio-stimulators on growth and physiological activity of willow in climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piotrowski, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Duda, Zdzisława

2018-04-01

The aim of this research was to evaluate the physiological activity and growth of willow (Salix viminalis L.) plants cultivated under the conditions of adverse temperature and soil moisture content, and to assess the effect of the foliar application of Biojodis (1.0%) and Asahi SL (0.03%) bio-stimulators, or a mixture of Microcistis aeruginosa MKR 0105 and Anabaena PCC 7120 cyanobacteria under such changing growth conditions. The obtained results showed different reactions to the applied constant or periodically changed temperature and soil moisture content. The plants which grew at periodically changed adverse temperature (from -5 to 40oC) or in scantily (20% m.c.) or excessively (60% m.c.) watered soils, grew slowly, in comparison with those growing at 20oC and in optimally moistened soil (30% m.c.). Foliar application of Biojodis and Asahi SL cyanobacteria increased the growth of willow at optimal and adverse temperature or in scantily and excessively moistened soil. The changes in plant growth were associated with the changes in electrolyte leakage, activity of acid or alkaline phosphatases, RNase, index of chlorophyll content in leaves and gas exchange. The above indicates that the foliar application of the studied cyanobacteria and bio-stimulators partly alleviates the harmful impact of adverse temperature and water stress on growth and physiological activity of willow plants

Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Ogden, Nicholas H; Semenza, Jan C; Woodward, Alistair

2017-08-07

Detection and attribution of health impacts caused by climate change uses formal methods to determine a ) whether the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has changed, and b ) the extent to which that change could be attributed to climate change. There have been limited efforts to undertake detection and attribution analyses in health. Our goal was to show a range of approaches for conducting detection and attribution analyses. Case studies for heatwaves, Lyme disease in Canada, and Vibrio emergence in northern Europe highlight evidence that climate change is adversely affecting human health. Changes in rates and geographic distribution of adverse health outcomes were detected, and, in each instance, a proportion of the observed changes could, in our judgment, be attributed to changes in weather patterns associated with climate change. The results of detection and attribution studies can inform evidence-based risk management to reduce current, and plan for future, changes in health risks associated with climate change. Gaining a better understanding of the size, timing, and distribution of the climate change burden of disease and injury requires reliable long-term data sets, more knowledge about the factors that confound and modify the effects of climate on health, and refinement of analytic techniques for detection and attribution. At the same time, significant advances are possible in the absence of complete data and statistical certainty: there is a place for well-informed judgments, based on understanding of underlying processes and matching of patterns of health, climate, and other determinants of human well-being. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1509.

Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-03-01

Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

Breeding crops for improved mineral nutrition under climate change conditions.

PubMed

Pilbeam, David J

2015-06-01

Improvements in understanding how climate change may influence chemical and physical processes in soils, how this may affect nutrient availability, and how plants may respond to changed availability of nutrients will influence crop breeding programmes. The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, both individually and combined, on soil microbial activity, including mycorrhizas and N-fixing organisms, are evaluated, together with their implications for nutrient availability. Potential changes to plant growth, and the combined effects of soil and plant changes on nutrient uptake, are discussed. The organization of research on the efficient use of macro- and micronutrients by crops under climate change conditions is outlined, including analysis of QTLs for nutrient efficiency. Suggestions for how the information gained can be used in plant breeding programmes are given. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

30 CFR 285.816 - What must I do if environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Environmental Effects § 285.816 What must I do if environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What must I do if environmental or other... EXISTING FACILITIES ON THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Environmental and Safety Management, Inspections, and...

Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blomberg, Erik J.; Sedinger, James S.; Gibson, Daniel; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

2014-01-01

Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits

Effects of Regional Climate Change on the Wave Conditions in the Western Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreier, N.; Fröhle, P.

2017-12-01

The local wave climate in the Western Baltic Sea is mainly generated by the local wind field over the area. Long-term changes of the local wind conditions that are induced e.g. by regional climate change, directly affect the local wave climate and other local wind driven coastal processes like e.g. the longshore sediment transport. The changes of the local wave climate play an important role for the safe functional and structural design of new, or the adaption of existing, coastal protection structures as well as for the assessment of long-term morphological changes of the coastline. In this study, the wave model SWAN is used for the calculation of hourly wave conditions in the Western Baltic Sea between 1960 and 2100. Future wind conditions from two regional climate models (Cosmo-CLM and REMO) that have been forced by different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios used within AR4 (A1B, B1) and AR5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of IPCC are used as input for the wave model. The changes of the average wave conditions are analyzed from comparisons between the 30 years averages for the future (e.g. 2071-2100) and the reference period 1971-2000. Regarding the emission scenarios A1B and B1, a significant change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height at westerly wind exposed locations with predominant higher values up to +10% is found (cf. Fig. 1). In contrast, the change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height is more weak at easterly wind exposed locations, resulting in higher and lower values between -5% to +5%. Moreover, more wave events from W-NW and fewer events from N-NE can be expected, due to changes of the frequency of occurrence of the 30 years averages of mean wave direction. The changes of extreme wave heights are analyzed based on methods of extreme value analysis and the time series of wave parameters at selected locations nearby the German Baltic Sea coast. No robust changes of the significant wave heights with a return period of 200

Plant-Pathogen Warfare under Changing Climate Conditions.

PubMed

Velásquez, André C; Castroverde, Christian Danve M; He, Sheng Yang

2018-05-21

Global environmental changes caused by natural and human activities have accelerated in the past 200 years. The increase in greenhouse gases is predicted to continue to raise global temperature and change water availability in the 21 st century. In this Review, we explore the profound effect the environment has on plant diseases - a susceptible host will not be infected by a virulent pathogen if the environmental conditions are not conducive for disease. The change in CO 2 concentrations, temperature, and water availability can have positive, neutral, or negative effects on disease development, as each disease may respond differently to these variations. However, the concept of disease optima could potentially apply to all pathosystems. Plant resistance pathways, including pattern-triggered immunity to effector-triggered immunity, RNA interference, and defense hormone networks, are all affected by environmental factors. On the pathogen side, virulence mechanisms, such as the production of toxins and virulence proteins, as well as pathogen reproduction and survival are influenced by temperature and humidity. For practical reasons, most laboratory investigations into plant-pathogen interactions at the molecular level focus on well-established pathosystems and use a few static environmental conditions that capture only a fraction of the dynamic plant-pathogen-environment interactions that occur in nature. There is great need for future research to increasingly use dynamic environmental conditions in order to fully understand the multidimensional nature of plant-pathogen interactions and produce disease-resistant crop plants that are resilient to climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges of using air conditioning in an increasingly hot climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundgren-Kownacki, Karin; Hornyanszky, Elisabeth Dalholm; Chu, Tuan Anh; Olsson, Johanna Alkan; Becker, Per

2018-03-01

At present, air conditioning (AC) is the most effective means for the cooling of indoor space. However, its increased global use is problematic for various reasons. This paper explores the challenges linked to increased AC use and discusses more sustainable alternatives. A literature review was conducted applying a transdisciplinary approach. It was further complemented by examples from cities in hot climates. To analyse the findings, an analytical framework was developed which considers four societal levels—individual, community, city, and national. The main challenges identified from the literature review are as follows: environmental, organisational, socio-economical, biophysical and behavioural. The paper also identifies several measures that could be taken to reduce the fast growth of AC use. However, due to the complex nature of the problem, there is no single solution to provide sustainable cooling. Alternative solutions were categorised in three broad categories: climate-sensitive urban planning and building design, alternative cooling technologies, and climate-sensitive attitudes and behaviour. The main findings concern the problems arising from leaving the responsibility to come up with cooling solutions entirely to the individual, and how different societal levels can work towards more sustainable cooling options. It is concluded that there is a need for a more holistic view both when it comes to combining various solutions as well as involving various levels in society.

Do nurse and patient injuries share common antecedents? An analysis of associations with safety climate and working conditions.

PubMed

Taylor, Jennifer A; Dominici, Francesca; Agnew, Jacqueline; Gerwin, Daniel; Morlock, Laura; Miller, Marlene R

2012-02-01

Safety climate and nurses' working conditions may have an impact on both patient outcomes and nurse occupational health, but these outcomes have rarely been examined concurrently. To examine the association of unit-level safety climate and specific nurse working conditions with injury outcomes for both nurses and patients in a single hospital. A cross-sectional study was conducted using nursing-unit level and individual-level data at an urban, level-one trauma centre in the USA. Multilevel logistic regressions were used to examine associations among injury outcomes, safety climate and working conditions on 29 nursing units, including a total of 723 nurses and 28 876 discharges. Safety climate was measured in 2004 using the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ). Working conditions included registered nursing hours per patient day (RNHPPD) and unit turnover. Patient injuries included 290 falls, 167 pulmonary embolism/deep vein thrombosis (PE/DVT), and 105 decubitus ulcers. Nurse injury was defined as a reported needle-stick, splash, slip, trip, or fall (n=78). Working conditions and outcomes were measured in 2005. The study found a negative association between two SAQ domains, Safety and Teamwork, with the odds of both decubitus ulcers and nurse injury. RNHPPD showed a negative association with patient falls and decubitus ulcers. Unit turnover was positively associated with nurse injury and PE/DVT, but negatively associated with falls and decubitus ulcers. Safety climate was associated with both patient and nurse injuries, suggesting that patient and nurse safety may actually be linked outcomes. The findings also indicate that increased unit turnover should be considered a risk factor for nurse and patient injuries.

From cold to hot: Climatic effects and productivity in Wisconsin dairy farms.

PubMed

Qi, L; Bravo-Ureta, B E; Cabrera, V E

2015-12-01

This study examined the effects of climatic conditions on dairy farm productivity using panel data for the state of Wisconsin along with alternative stochastic frontier models. A noteworthy feature of this analysis is that Wisconsin is a major dairy-producing area where winters are typically very cold and snowy and summers are hot and humid. Thus, it is an ideal geographical region for examining the effects of a range of climatic factors on dairy production. We identified the effects of temperature and precipitation, both jointly and separately, on milk output. The analysis showed that increasing temperature in summer or in autumn is harmful for dairy production, whereas warmer winters and warmer springs are beneficial. In contrast, more precipitation had a consistent adverse effect on dairy productivity. Overall, the analysis showed that over the past 17 yr, changes in climatic conditions have had a negative effect on Wisconsin dairy farms. Alternative scenarios predict that climate change would lead to a 5 to 11% reduction in dairy production per year between 2020 and 2039 after controlling for other factors. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Major challenges for correlational ecological niche model projections to future climate conditions.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Cobos, Marlon E; Jiménez-García, Daniel

2018-06-20

Species-level forecasts of distributional potential and likely distributional shifts, in the face of changing climates, have become popular in the literature in the past 20 years. Many refinements have been made to the methodology over the years, and the result has been an approach that considers multiple sources of variation in geographic predictions, and how that variation translates into both specific predictions and uncertainty in those predictions. Although numerous previous reviews and overviews of this field have pointed out a series of assumptions and caveats associated with the methodology, three aspects of the methodology have important impacts but have not been treated previously in detail. Here, we assess those three aspects: (1) effects of niche truncation on model transfers to future climate conditions, (2) effects of model selection procedures on future-climate transfers of ecological niche models, and (3) relative contributions of several factors (replicate samples of point data, general circulation models, representative concentration pathways, and alternative model parameterizations) to overall variance in model outcomes. Overall, the view is one of caution: although resulting predictions are fascinating and attractive, this paradigm has pitfalls that may bias and limit confidence in niche model outputs as regards the implications of climate change for species' geographic distributions. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, T. K.; Reusser, D. E.; Schewe, J.; Lakes, T.; Kropp, J. P.

2014-03-01

Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target-measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models as well as greenhouse gas scenarios are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD). Based on a transdisciplinary sample of influential concepts addressing human well-being, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows identifying and differentiating uncertainty of climate and impact model projections. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions - and where it is not. The results indicate that in many countries today, livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. Moreover, the analysis shows that for 44 out of 111 countries, the water-specific uncertainty ranges are

Behavior of crushed rock aggregates used in road construction exposed to cold climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, Elena; Pérez Fortes, Ana Patricia; Anastasio, Sara; Willy Danielsen, Svein

2016-04-01

Presently, about 90% of the aggregate production in Europe comes from naturally occurring resources: quarries and pits. Due to the increased demand for sand and gravel for construction purposes, not only in building but also in road construction, the last decade has seen a significant trend towards the use of more crushed rock aggregates. This resource has been more and more preferred to sand and gravel thanks to the significant technological development of its process and use phase. The performance of the aggregates is generally evaluated depending on three main factors: the geological origin (mineral composition, texture, structure, degree of weathering), the aggregate processing (crushing, sieving, washing, storing) and the user technology for a specific area of use (e.g. road construction, asphalt binders). Nevertheless climatic conditions should carefully be taken into account in application such as road construction. Large temperature gradients and high levels of humidity are known to significantly affect the performance of the material. Although the problem is, at least in the asphalt field, considered mostly from the binder point of view, this article aims to investigate the effect of aggregate properties on road performance in cold climatic conditions. Two different climatic areas will be taken into account: Norway and Spain. While both these countries are listed among the main European producers of aggregates, they represent significantly different climatic regions. While Norwegian weather is characterized by humid cold winters and relatively mild summers, Spain has temperate climate with cold regions in mountainous and internal areas. Both countries have been significantly affected by climate change with increasing temperature variations and instability. At the same time, similar winter maintenance measures, including the use of a considerable amount of solid and liquid chemicals to avoid ice formation (e.g. NaCl) and/or to provide better friction, are

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of

Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

PubMed

Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

2013-01-01

The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

Scoping the proximal and distal dimensions of climate change on health and wellbeing.

PubMed

Morris, George Paterson; Reis, Stefan; Beck, Sheila Anne; Fleming, Lora Elderkin; Adger, William Neil; Benton, Timothy Guy; Depledge, Michael Harold

2017-12-05

The impacts of climate on health and wellbeing occur in time and space and through a range of indirect, complicated mechanisms. This diversity of pathways has major implications for national public health planning and influence on interventions that might help to mitigate and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions, nationally and internationally. This paper draws upon evidence from public health and adverse impact studies across climate science, hydrology, agriculture, public health, and the social sciences. It presents a conceptual model to support decision-making by recognizing both the proximal and distal pathways from climate-induced environmental change to national health and wellbeing. The proximal and distal pathways associated with food security, migration and mobility illustrate the diverse climate change influences in different geographic locations over different timescales. We argue that greater realization and articulation of proximal and distal pathways should radically alter how climate change is addressed as a national and international public health challenge.

Physio-climatic controls on vulnerability of watersheds to climate and land use change across the U. S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, Ankit; Singh, Riddhi

2016-11-01

Understanding how a watershed's physio-climatic characteristics affect its vulnerability to environmental (climatic and land use) change is crucial for managing these complex systems. In this study, we combine the strengths of recently developed exploratory modeling frameworks and comparative hydrology to quantify the relationship between watershed's vulnerability and its physio-climatic characteristics. We propose a definition of vulnerability that can be used by a diverse range of water system managers and is useful in the presence of large uncertainties in drivers of environmental change. This definition is related to adverse climate change and land use thresholds that are quantified using a recently developed exploratory modeling approach. In this way, we estimate the vulnerability of 69 watersheds in the United States to climate and land use change. We explore definitions of vulnerability that describe average or extreme flow conditions, as well as others that are relevant from the point of view of instream organisms. In order to understand the dominant controls on vulnerability, we correlate these indices with watershed's characteristics describing its topography, geology, drainage, climate, and land use. We find that mean annual flow is more vulnerable to reductions in precipitation in watersheds with lower average soil permeability, lower baseflow index, lower forest cover, higher topographical wetness index, and vice-versa. Our results also indicate a potential mediation of climate change impacts by regional groundwater systems. By developing such relationships across a large range of watersheds, such information can potentially be used to assess the vulnerability of ungauged watersheds to uncertain environmental change.

Functions of Nitric Oxide (NO) in Roots during Development and under Adverse Stress Conditions

PubMed Central

Corpas, Francisco J.; Barroso, Juan B.

2015-01-01

The free radical molecule, nitric oxide (NO), is present in the principal organs of plants, where it plays an important role in a wide range of physiological functions. Root growth and development are highly regulated by both internal and external factors such as nutrient availability, hormones, pattern formation, cell polarity and cell cycle control. The presence of NO in roots has opened up new areas of research on the role of NO, including root architecture, nutrient acquisition, microorganism interactions and the response mechanisms to adverse environmental conditions, among others. Additionally, the exogenous application of NO throughout the roots has the potential to counteract specific damages caused by certain stresses. This review aims to provide an up-to-date perspective on NO functions in the roots of higher plants. PMID:27135326

New insights into thermal growing conditions of Portuguese grapevine varieties under changing climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, João A.; Costa, Ricardo; Fraga, Helder

2018-03-01

New decision support tools for Portuguese viticulture are urging under a climate change context. In the present study, heat and chilling accumulation conditions of a collection of 44 grapevine cultivars currently grown in Portugal are assessed at very high spatial resolution ( 1 km) and for 1981-2015. Two bioclimatic indices that incorporate non-linear plant-temperature relationships are selected for this purpose: growing degree hours—GDH (February-October) and chilling portions—CP (October-February). The current thermal growing conditions of each variety are examined and three clusters of grapevine cultivars are identified based on their GDH medians, thus assembling varieties with close heat accumulation requirements and providing more physiologically consistent information when compared to previous studies, as non-linear plant-temperature relationships are herein taken into account. These new clusters are also a complement to previous bioclimatic zoning. Ensemble mean projections under two anthropogenic-driven scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 2041-2070), from four EURO-CORDEX simulations, reveal a widespread increase of GDH and decrease of CP, but with spatial heterogeneities. The spatial variability of these indices throughout Portugal is projected to decrease (strongest increases of GDH in the coolest regions of the northeast) and to increase (strongest decreases of CP in the warmest regions of the south and west), respectively. The typical heat accumulation conditions of each cluster are projected to gradually shift north-eastwards and to higher-elevation areas, whereas insufficient chilling may represent a new challenge in warmer future climates. An unprecedented level of detail for a large collection of grapevine varieties in Portugal is provided, thus promoting a better planning of climate change adaptation measures.

Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

2015-01-01

Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before

Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

2015-01-01

Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before

Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

2016-04-01

Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated

Climate Engine - Monitoring Drought with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegewisch, K.; Daudert, B.; Morton, C.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Drought has adverse effects on society through reduced water availability and agricultural production and increased wildfire risk. An abundance of remotely sensed imagery and climate data are being collected in near-real time that can provide place-based monitoring and early warning of drought and related hazards. However, in an era of increasing wealth of earth observations, tools that quickly access, compute, and visualize archives, and provide answers at relevant scales to better inform decision-making are lacking. We have developed ClimateEngine.org, a web application that uses Google's Earth Engine platform to enable users to quickly compute and visualize real-time observations. A suite of drought indices allow us to monitor and track drought from local (30-meters) to regional scales and contextualize current droughts within the historical record. Climate Engine is currently being used by U.S. federal agencies and researchers to develop baseline conditions and impact assessments related to agricultural, ecological, and hydrological drought. Climate Engine is also working with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to expedite monitoring agricultural drought over broad areas at risk of food insecurity globally.

The analysis and assessment of the climate conditions of China in 1959-1961: the three-year difficult period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haidong; Sun, Zhao bo; Luo, Yong; Zhang, Shangyin; Li, Qingxiang

2006-08-01

China is in the fragile climate area and is one of the most serious countries that suffered serious natural disaster in the world. This text had analyzing the climate conditions of China for the three-year difficult period of 1959-1961 scientifically, and told us about the number of the disaster (20, 29, 26 times) that occurred in the main natural areas by analyzing meteorological factors in 1951-1961, and the result is serious. The disasters of these years are mainly drought and typhoon, other natural disasters such as flood, hail are mainly in some areas in China. On the basis of analyze the three years' meteorological materials from the whole country (670 observation stations at national level and national basis, 4/24 times a day) year by year, and do the comparative analysis according to a common way (considered the average value of climate conditions in 1961-1990 as the standard value), analyze the impact of the natural disasters on national economy objectively with specific and accurate materials at that time, and give us suggestions on how to organize the deference of climate emergency system, etc. According to analysis, during 1959 - 1961, China's climate characteristic was lack of precipitation, especially in 1960, the space and time for the precipitation was not fair. As a whole, the weather and climate conditions are very disadvantageous to China's agricultural production during those years, especially 1960. According to loss caused by the disasters, the year 1960 was much more serious than 1959 and 1961.

A Regional-Scale Evaluation on Environmental Stability Conditions for Convective Rain under Climate Change from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemi, T.; Nomura, S.; Oku, Y.; Ishikawa, H.

2011-12-01

Understanding and forecasting of convective rain due to intense thunderstorms, which develop under conditions both with and without significant synoptic-scale and/or mesoscale forcings, are critical in dealing with disaster prevention/mitigation and developing urban planning appropriate for disaster management. Thunderstorms rapidly develop even during the daytimes of fair weather conditions without any external forcings, and sometimes become strong enough to induce local-scale meteorological disasters such as torrential rain, flush flooding, high winds, and tornadoes/gusts. With the growing interests in climate change, future changes in the behavior of such convectively generated extreme events have gained scientific and societal interests. This study conducted the regional-scale evaluations on the environmental stability conditions for convective rain that develops under synoptically undisturbed, summertime conditions by using the outputs of super-high-resolution AGCM simulations, at a 20-km resolution, for the present, the near-future, and the future climates under global warming with IPCC A1B emission scenario. The GCM, MRI-AGCM3.2S, was developed by Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency under the KAKUSHIN program funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The climate simulation outputs that were used in this study corresponded to three 25-year periods: 1980-2004 for the present climate; 2020-2044 for the near-future climate; and 2075-2099 for the future climate. The Kanto Plain that includes the Tokyo metropolitan area was chosen as the study area, since the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the largest metropolises in the world and is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study was to examine how regional-scale evaluations are performed from the super-high-resolution GCM outputs. After verifying the usefulness of the GCM present-climate outputs with

Children's well-being at schools: Impact of climatic conditions and air pollution.

PubMed

Salthammer, Tunga; Uhde, Erik; Schripp, Tobias; Schieweck, Alexandra; Morawska, Lidia; Mazaheri, Mandana; Clifford, Sam; He, Congrong; Buonanno, Giorgio; Querol, Xavier; Viana, Mar; Kumar, Prashant

2016-09-01

Human civilization is currently facing two particular challenges: population growth with a strong trend towards urbanization and climate change. The latter is now no longer seriously questioned. The primary concern is to limit anthropogenic climate change and to adapt our societies to its effects. Schools are a key part of the structure of our societies. If future generations are to take control of the manifold global problems, we have to offer our children the best possible infrastructure for their education: not only in terms of the didactic concepts, but also with regard to the climatic conditions in the school environment. Between the ages of 6 and 19, children spend up to 8h a day in classrooms. The conditions are, however, often inacceptable and regardless of the geographic situation, all the current studies report similar problems: classrooms being too small for the high number of school children, poor ventilation concepts, considerable outdoor air pollution and strong sources of indoor air pollution. There have been discussions about a beneficial and healthy air quality in classrooms for many years now and in recent years extensive studies have been carried out worldwide. The problems have been clearly outlined on a scientific level and there are prudent and feasible concepts to improve the situation. The growing number of publications also highlights the importance of this subject. High carbon dioxide concentrations in classrooms, which indicate poor ventilation conditions, and the increasing particle matter in urban outdoor air have, in particular, been identified as primary causes of poor indoor air quality in schools. Despite this, the conditions in most schools continue to be in need of improvement. There are many reasons for this. In some cases, the local administrative bodies do not have the budgets required to address such concerns, in other cases regulations and laws stand in contradiction to the demands for better indoor air quality, and sometimes

Alloiococcus otitidis Forms Multispecies Biofilm with Haemophilus influenzae: Effects on Antibiotic Susceptibility and Growth in Adverse Conditions.

PubMed

Chan, Chun L; Richter, Katharina; Wormald, Peter-John; Psaltis, Alkis J; Vreugde, Sarah

2017-01-01

Otitis media with effusion (OME) is a biofilm driven disease and commonly accepted otopathogens, such as Haemophilus influenzae, Streptococcus pneumonia, and Moraxella catarrhalis , have been demonstrated to form polymicrobial biofilms within the middle ear cleft. However, Alloiococcus otitidis ( A. otitidis ), which is one of the most commonly found bacteria within middle ear aspirates of children with OME, has not been described to form biofilms. The aim of this study was to investigate whether A. otitidis can form biofilms and investigate the impact on antibiotic susceptibility and survivability in polymicrobial biofilms with H. influenzae in vitro . The ability of A. otitidis to form single-species and polymicrobial biofilms with H. influenzae was explored. Clinical and commercial strains of A. otitidis and H. influenzae were incubated in brain heart infusion with and without supplementation. Biofilm was imaged using confocal laser scanning microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. Quantification of biofilm biomass and viable bacterial number was assessed using crystal violet assays and viable cell counting in both optimal growth conditions and in adverse growth conditions (depleted media and sub-optimal growth temperature). Antimicrobial susceptibility and changes in antibiotic resistance of single-species and multi-species co-culture were assessed using a microdilution method to assess minimal bactericidal concentration and E-test for amoxicillin and ciprofloxacin. A. otitidis formed single-species and polymicrobial biofilms with H. influenzae . Additionally, whilst strain dependent, combinations of polymicrobial biofilms decreased antimicrobial susceptibility, albeit a small magnitude, in both planktonic and polymicrobial biofilms. Moreover, A. otitidis promoted H. influenzae survival by increasing biofilm production in depleted media and at suboptimal growth temperature. Our findings suggest that A. otitidis may play an indirect pathogenic role in otitis

Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

2014-12-01

Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitz, Rhonda

2017-01-01

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domain/component, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IV&V enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitz, Rhonda

2017-01-01

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domaincomponent, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IVV enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this

Popular culture and the "new human condition": Catastrophe narratives and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulfin, Ailise

2017-09-01

Striking popular culture images of burnt landscapes, tidal waves and ice-bound cities have the potential to dramatically and emotively convey the dangers of climate change. Given that a significant number of people derive a substantial proportion of their information on the threat of climate change, or the ;new human condition;, from popular culture works such as catastrophe movies, it is important that an investigation into the nature of the representations produced be embedded in the attempt to address the issue. What climate change-related messages may be encoded in popular films, television and novels, how are they being received, and what effects may they have? This article adopts the cultural studies perspective that popular culture gives us an important means by which to access the ;structures of feeling; that characterise a society at a particular historic juncture: the views held and emotional states experienced by significant amounts of people as evident in disparate forms of cultural production. It further adopts the related viewpoint that popular culture has an effect upon the society in which it is consumed, as well as reflecting that society's desires and concerns - although the nature of the effect may be difficult to quantify. From this position, the article puts forward a theory on the role of ecological catastrophe narratives in current popular culture, before going on to review existing critical work on ecologically-charged popular films and novels which attempts to assess their effects on their audiences. It also suggests areas for future research, such as the prevalent but little studied theme of natural and environmental disaster in late-Victorian science fiction writing. This latter area is of interest because it reveals the emergence of an ecological awareness or structure of feeling as early as the late-nineteenth century, and allows the relationship of this development to environmental policy making to be investigated because of the

Adverse childhood experiences and disability in U.S. adults.

PubMed

Schüssler-Fiorenza Rose, Sophia Miryam; Xie, Dawei; Stineman, Margaret

2014-08-01

To assess relationships between adverse childhood experiences and self-reported disabilities in adult life. Cross-sectional, random-digit-dialed, state-population-based survey (Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System). Fourteen states and the District of Columbia. Noninstitutionalized adults ages ≥18 years surveyed in 2009 and/or in 2010 (n = 81,184). The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Adverse Childhood Experience (ACE) Module asks about abuse (physical, sexual, emotional), family dysfunction (exposures to domestic violence, living with mentally ill, substance abusing, or incarcerated family member(s), and/or parental separation and/or divorce) that occurred before age 18 years. The ACE score sums affirmed ACE categories (range, 0-8). We controlled for demographic characteristics (age, race, education, income, and marital status) and self-reported physical health conditions (stroke, myocardial infarction, diabetes, coronary heart disease, asthma). Five states asked participants about mental health conditions (anxiety, depression). A subset analysis of participants in these states evaluated the effect of adjusting for these conditions. The primary outcome was disability (self-reported activity limitation and/or assistive device use). More than half of participants (57%) reported at least 1 adverse childhood experience category, and 23.2% reported disability. The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of disability increased in a graded fashion from odds ratio 1.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.4) among those who experienced 1 adverse experience to odds ratio 5.8 (95% confidence interval, 4.6-7.5) among those with 7-8 adverse experiences compared with those with no such experiences when adjusting for demographic factors. The relationship between adverse experiences and disability remained strong after adjusting for physical and mental health conditions. There is a strong graded relationship between childhood exposure to abuse and household

A conditional approach to determining the effect of anthropogenic climate change on very rare events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Pall, Pardeep; Zarzycki, Colin; Stone, Daithi

2016-04-01

Probabilistic extreme event attribution is especially difficult for weather events that are caused by extremely rare large-scale meteorological patterns. Traditional modeling techniques have involved using ensembles of climate models, either fully coupled or with prescribed ocean and sea ice. Ensemble sizes for the latter case ranges from several 100 to tens of thousand. However, even if the simulations are constrained by the observed ocean state, the requisite large-scale meteorological pattern may not occur frequently enough or even at all in free running climate model simulations. We present a method to ensure that simulated events similar to the observed event are modeled with enough fidelity that robust statistics can be determined given the large scale meteorological conditions. By initializing suitably constrained short term ensemble hindcasts of both the actual weather system and a counterfactual weather system where the human interference in the climate system is removed, the human contribution to the magnitude of the event can be determined. However, the change (if any) in the probability of an event of the observed magnitude is conditional not only on the state of the ocean/sea ice system but also on the prescribed initial conditions determined by the causal large scale meteorological pattern. We will discuss the implications of this technique through two examples; the 2013 Colorado flood and the 2014 Typhoon Haiyan.

Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions.

PubMed

Klein, Petra M; Coffman, Reid

2015-04-15

Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April-October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating

Adverse Climatic Conditions and Impact on Construction Scheduling and Cost

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-01-01

ABBREVIATIONS ABS MAX MAX TEMP ...... Absolute maximum maximum temperature ABS MIN MIN TEMP ...... Absolute minimum minimum temperature BTU...o Degrees Farenheit MEAN MAX TEMP o.................... Mean maximum temperature MEAN MIN TEMP...temperatures available, a determination had to be made as to whether forecasts were based on absolute , mean, or statistically derived temperatures

Small river plumes off the northeastern coast of the Black Sea under average climatic and flooding discharge conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osadchiev, Alexander; Korshenko, Evgeniya

2017-06-01

This study focuses on the impact of discharges of small rivers on the delivery and fate of fluvial water and suspended matter at the northeastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers flow into the sea at the study region, and most of them, except for several of the largest, have little annual runoff and affect adjacent coastal waters to a limited extent under average climatic conditions. However, the discharges of these small rivers are characterized by a quick response to precipitation events and can significantly increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the considered area. The delivery and fate of fluvial water and terrigenous sediments at the study region, under average climatic and rain-induced flooding conditions, were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery, and numerical modeling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers under average climatic conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. The intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments forms a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces the intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a northwestern direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of the narrow shelf at the northeastern part of the Black Sea compared to average climatic discharge conditions.

[The influence of the climatic and weather conditions on the mechanisms underlying the formation of enhanced meteosensitivity (a literature review)].

PubMed

Uyanaeva, A I; Tupitsyna, Yu Yu; Rassulova, M A; Turova, E A; Lvova, N V; Ajrapetova, N S

The present review concerns the problem of the influence of the climatic conditions on the human body, the creation of the medical weather forecast service, the development of non-pharmacological methods for the correction of meteopathic disorders, and the reduction of the risk of the complications provoked by the unfavourable weather conditions. The literature data are used to analyse the influence of climatic and weather factors on the formation of enhanced meteosensitivity and the development of exacerbations of chronic non-communicable diseases under the influence of weather conditions. It is concluded that marked changes of the weather may lead to an increased frequency of exacerbations of the chronic non-communicable diseases. The influence of weather and climate on human health is becoming an increasingly important factor under the current conditions bearing in mind the modern tendency toward variations of the global climatic conditions and their specific regional manifestations. The authors emphasize the necessity of the identification and evaluation of the predictors of the development of high meteosensitivity for the prognostication of the risks of the meteopathic reactions and the complications associated with the changes in weather conditions as well as the importance of the improvement of the existing and the development of new methods for the non-pharmacological prevention and correction of enhanced meteosensitivity with the application of the natural and preformed physical factors.

Climate change impacts on coffee rust disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonsi, W. M. V.; Koga-Vicente, A.; Pinto, H. S.; Alfonsi, E. L., Sr.; Coltri, P. P.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Patricio, F. R.; Avila, A. M. H. D.; Gonçalves, R. R. D. V.

2016-12-01

Changes in climate conditions and in extreme weather events may affect the food security due to impacts in agricultural production. Despite several researches have been assessed the impacts of extremes in yield crops in climate change scenarios, there is the need to consider the effects in pests and diseases which increase losses in the sector. Coffee Arabica is an important commodity in world and plays a key role in Brazilian agricultural exports. Although the coffee crop has a world highlight, its yield is affected by several factors abiotic or biotic. The weather as well pests and diseases directly influence the development and coffee crop yield. These problems may cause serious damage with significant economic impacts. The coffee rust, caused by the fungus Hemileia vastarix,is among the diseases of greatest impact for the crop. The disease emerged in Brazil in the 70s and is widely spread in all producing regions of coffee in Brazil, and in the world. Regions with favorable weather conditions for the pathogen may exhibit losses ranging from 30% to 50% of the total grain production. The evaluation of extreme weather events of coffee rust disease in futures scenarios was carried out using the climatic data from CMIP5 models, data field of coffee rust disease incidence and, incubation period simulation data for Brazilian municipalities. Two Regional Climate Models were selected, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, and the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 w/m2 was adopted. The outcomes pointed out that in these scenarios the period of incubation tends to decrease affecting the coffee rust disease incidence, which tends to increase. Nevertheless, the changing in average trends tends to benefit the reproduction of the pathogen. Once the temperature threshold for the disease reaches the adverse conditions it may be unfavorable for the incidence.

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

2014-05-01

The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

Performance Analysis of Air-to-Water Heat Pump in Latvian Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazjonovs, Janis; Sipkevics, Andrejs; Jakovics, Andris; Dancigs, Andris; Bajare, Diana; Dancigs, Leonards

2014-12-01

Strategy of the European Union in efficient energy usage demands to have a higher proportion of renewable energy in the energy market. Since heat pumps are considered to be one of the most efficient heating and cooling systems, they will play an important role in the energy consumption reduction in buildings aimed to meet the target of nearly zero energy buildings set out in the EU Directive 2010/31/EU. Unfortunately, the declared heat pump Coefficient of Performance (COP) corresponds to a certain outdoor temperature (+7 °C), therefore different climate conditions, building characteristics and settings result in different COP values during the year. The aim of this research is to investigate the Seasonal Performance factor (SPF) values of air-to-water heat pump which better characterize the effectiveness of heat pump in a longer selected period of time, especially during the winter season, in different types of residential buildings in Latvian climate conditions. Latvia has four pronounced seasons of near-equal length. Winter starts in mid-December and lasts until mid-March. Latvia is characterized by cold, maritime climate (duration of the average heating period being 203 days, the average outdoor air temperature during the heating period being 0.0 °C, the coldest five-day average temperature being -20.7 °C, the average annual air temperature being +6.2 °C, the daily average relative humidity being 79 %). The first part of this research consists of operational air-towater heat pump energy performance monitoring in different residential buildings during the winter season. The second part of the research takes place under natural conditions in an experimental construction stand which is located in an urban environment in Riga, Latvia. The inner area of this test stand, where air-to-water heat pump performance is analyzed, is 9 m2. The ceiling height is 3 m, all external wall constructions (U = 0.16 W/(m2K)) have ventilated facades. To calculate SPF, the

Future climate impact on unfavorable meteorological conditions for the dispersion of air pollution in Brussels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Troch, Rozemien; Berckmans, Julie; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet

2015-04-01

Belgium is one of the several countries in Europe where air quality levels of different pollutants such as ozone, NOx, and Particulate Matter (PM) still exceed the prescribed European norms multiple times a year (EEA, 2014). These pollution peaks have a great impact on health and environment, in particular in large cities and urban environments. It is well known that observed concentrations of air pollutants are strongly influenced by emissions and meteorological conditions and therefore is sensitive to climate change. As the effects of global climate change are increasingly felt in Belgium, policy makers express growing interest in quantifying its effect on air pollution and the effort required to meet the air quality targets in the next years and decennia (Lauwaet et al., 2014). In this study, two different stability indices are calculated for a 9-year period using present (1991-1999) and future (2047-2055) climate data that has been obtained from a dynamically downscaling of Global Climate Model data from the Arpège model using the ALARO model at 4 km spatial resolution. The ALARO model is described in detail in previous validation studies from De Troch et al. (2013) and Hamdi et al. (2013). The first index gives a measure of the horizontal and vertical transport of nonreactive pollutants in stable atmospheric conditions and has been proposed and tested by Termonia and Quinet (2004). It gives a characteristic length scale l which is the ratio of the mean horizontal wind speed and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency. In this way low values for l in the lower part of the boundary layer during an extended time span of 12 hours, correspond to calm situations and a stable atmosphere and thus indicate unfavorable conditions for the dispersion of air pollution. This transport index is similar to an index used in an old Pasquill-type scheme but is more convenient to use to detect the strongest pollution peaks. The well known Pasquill classes are also calculated in order to

Adverse Perinatal Conditions Associated With Prenatally Detected Fetal Echogenic Bowel in Nova Scotia.

PubMed

Findley, Rachelle; Allen, Victoria M; Brock, Jo-Ann K

2018-05-01

This study sought to estimate the association of adverse perinatal outcomes with pregnancies complicated by fetal echogenic bowel. Data for pregnancies complicated with echogenic bowel identified in the second trimester were derived from the tertiary referral IWK Health Centre (Halifax, NS) Viewpoint Ultrasound Database augmented by medical chart review. The study was undertaken between 2003 and 2014. Rates of positive cytomegalovirus and toxoplasmosis infection were determined using maternal serology and amniocentesis results. Rates of intrauterine growth restriction, abnormal karyotype, cystic fibrosis, antenatal bleeding, and bowel abnormalities were also determined. Neonatal information included newborn urine culture results and postnatal genetic testing. Univariate analyses compared rates of infection with isolated echogenic bowel and echogenic bowel with other ultrasound findings, with statistical significance set at P <0.05. There were 422 pregnancies identified prenatally with echogenic bowel (82% had isolated echogenic bowel). Of these, 92 (22%) had at least one of the foregoing associated abnormalities. Three percent of women had serologic test results positive for cytomegalovirus or toxoplasmosis, with <1% documented newborn infections. Cystic fibrosis and other genetic diagnoses were observed in 8%, intrauterine growth restriction in 14%, antenatal bleeding in 19%, and bowel abnormalities in 3% of the cases of echogenic bowel. Pregnancies with isolated echogenic bowel had an 80% reduction in risk for these significant outcomes, in contrast to a four- to 11-fold increased risk of specific outcomes when additional ultrasound findings were present. An overall rate of adverse conditions of 22% with prenatally detected echogenic bowel serves to inform women and health care providers and emphasizes the importance of careful screening fetal ultrasound studies and timely referral for comprehensive assessment with findings of echogenic bowel for evaluation for

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Climatic variability effects on summer cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa-Morocho, M.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.

2012-04-01

Climate variability and changes in the frequency of extremes events have a direct impact on crop yield and damages. Climate anomalies projections at monthly and yearly timescale allows us for adapting a cropping system (crops, varieties and management) to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The objective of this work is to develop indices to evaluate the effect of climatic variability in summer cropping systems of Iberian Peninsula, in an attempt of relating yield variability to climate variability, extending the work of Rodríguez-Puebla (2004). This paper analyses the evolution of the yield anomalies of irrigated maize in several representative agricultural locations in Spain with contrasting temperature and precipitation regimes and compare it to the evolution of different patterns of climate variability, extending the methodology of Porter and Semenov (2005). To simulate maize yields observed daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. These data were obtained from the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET). Time series of simulated maize yields were computed with CERES-maize model for periods ranging from 22 to 49 years, depending on the observed climate data available for each location. The computed standardized anomalies yields were projected on different oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields and the resulting patterns were compared with a set of documented patterns from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results can be useful also for climate change impact assessment, providing a scientific basis for selection of climate change scenarios where combined natural and forced variability represent a hazard for agricultural production. Interpretation of impact projections would also be enhanced.

Conditional cold avoidance drives between-population variation in germination behaviour in Calluna vulgaris.

PubMed

Spindelböck, Joachim P; Cook, Zoë; Daws, Matthew I; Heegaard, Einar; Måren, Inger E; Vandvik, Vigdis

2013-09-01

Across their range, widely distributed species are exposed to a variety of climatic and other environmental conditions, and accordingly may display variation in life history strategies. For seed germination in cold climates, two contrasting responses to variation in winter temperature have been documented: first, an increased ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold tolerance) as winter temperatures decrease, and secondly a reduced ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold avoidance) that concentrates germination towards the warmer parts of the season. Germination responses were tested for Calluna vulgaris, the dominant species of European heathlands, from ten populations collected along broad-scale bioclimatic gradients (latitude, altitude) in Norway, covering a substantial fraction of the species' climatic range. Incubation treatments varied from 10 to 25 °C, and germination performance across populations was analysed in relation to temperature conditions at the seed collection locations. Seeds from all populations germinated rapidly and to high final percentages under the warmer incubation temperatures. Under low incubation temperatures, cold-climate populations had significantly lower germination rates and percentages than warm-climate populations. While germination rates and percentages also increased with seed mass, seed mass did not vary along the climatic gradients, and therefore did not explain the variation in germination responses. Variation in germination responses among Calluna populations was consistent with increased temperature requirements for germination towards colder climates, indicating a cold-avoidance germination strategy conditional on the temperature at the seeds' origin. Along a gradient of increasing temperatures this suggests a shift in selection pressures on germination from climatic adversity (i.e. low temperatures and potential frost risk in early or late season) to competitive performance and better exploitation of the

Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord

2016-03-01

One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries. © 2015 APJPH.

Interpopulational Variations in Sexual Chemical Signals of Iberian Wall Lizards May Allow Maximizing Signal Efficiency under Different Climatic Conditions.

PubMed

Martín, José; Ortega, Jesús; López, Pilar

2015-01-01

Sexual signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve to maximize efficacy under a given climatic condition. Thus, chemical secretions of lizards might evolve in the evolutionary time to ensure that signals are perfectly tuned to local humidity and temperature conditions affecting their volatility and therefore their persistence and transmission through the environment. We tested experimentally whether interpopulational altitudinal differences in chemical composition of femoral gland secretions of male Iberian wall lizards (Podarcis hispanicus) have evolved to maximize efficacy of chemical signals in different environmental conditions. Chemical analyses first showed that the characteristics of chemical signals of male lizards differed between two populations inhabiting environments with different climatic conditions in spite of the fact that these two populations are closely related genetically. We also examined experimentally whether the temporal attenuation of the chemical stimuli depended on simulated climatic conditions. Thus, we used tongue-flick essays to test whether female lizards were able to detect male scent marks maintained under different conditions of temperature and humidity by chemosensory cues alone. Chemosensory tests showed that chemical signals of males had a lower efficacy (i.e. detectability and persistence) when temperature and dryness increase, but that these effects were more detrimental for signals of the highest elevation population, which occupies naturally colder and more humid environments. We suggest that the abiotic environment may cause a selective pressure on the form and expression of sexual chemical signals. Therefore, interpopulational differences in chemical profiles of femoral secretions of male P. hispanicus lizards may reflect adaptation to maximize the efficacy of the chemical signal in different climates.

The health care work environment and adverse health and safety consequences for nurses.

PubMed

Geiger-Brown, Jeanne; Lipscomb, Jane

2010-01-01

Nurses' working conditions are inextricably linked to the quality of care that is provided to patients and patients' safety. These same working conditions are associated with health and safety outcomes for nurses and other health care providers. This chapter describes aspects of the nursing work environment that have been linked to hazards and adverse exposures for nurses, as well as the most common health and safety outcomes of nursing work. We include studies from 2000 to the present by nurse researchers, studies of nurses as subjects, and studies of workers under similar working conditions that could translate to nurses' work environment. We explore a number of work organization factors including shift work and extended work hours, safety climate and culture, teamwork, and communication. We also describe environmental hazards, including chemical hazards (e.g., waste anesthetics, hazardous drugs, cleaning compounds) and airborne and bloodborne pathogen exposure. Nurses' health and safety outcomes include physical (e.g., musculoskeletal disorders, gastrointestinal, slips, trips and falls, physical assault) and psychosocial outcomes (e.g., burnout, work-family conflict). Finally, we present recommendations for future research to further protect nurses and all health care workers from a range of hazardous working conditions.

An Analytical Approach for Performance Enhancement of FSO Communication System Using Array of Receivers in Adverse Weather Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagpal, Shaina; Gupta, Amit

2017-08-01

Free Space Optics (FSO) link exploits the tremendous network capacity and is capable of offering wireless communications similar to communications through optical fibres. However, FSO link is extremely weather dependent and the major effect on FSO links is due to adverse weather conditions like fog and snow. In this paper, an FSO link is designed using an array of receivers. The disparity of the link for very high attenuation conditions due to fog and snow is analysed using aperture averaging technique. Further effect of aperture averaging technique is investigated by comparing the systems using aperture averaging technique with systems not using aperture averaging technique. The performance of proposed model of FSO link has been evaluated in terms of Q factor, bit error rate (BER) and eye diagram.

77 FR 2996 - National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-20

... (Strategy). The adverse impacts of climate change transcend political and administrative boundaries. No... principles and science-based practices--for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife... resource adaptation to climate change, and will describe mechanisms that will foster collaboration among...

78 FR 19514 - National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-01

... changing climate. Input from public comments and workshops has been incorporated in the development of this... or Strategy). The adverse impacts of climate change transcend political and administrative boundaries... effects of climate change. This Strategy presents a unified approach--reflecting shared principles and...

Predicting Low Flow Conditions from Climatic Indices - Indicator-Based Modeling for Climate Change Impact Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fangmann, Anne; Haberlandt, Uwe

2014-05-01

In the face of climate change, the assessment of future hydrological regimes has become indispensable in the field of water resources management. Investigation of potential change is vital for proper planning, especially with regard to hydrological extremes. Commonly, projection of future streamflow is done applying process-based hydrological models, using climate model data as input, whose complex model structures generally require excessive amounts of time and effort for set-up and computation. This study aims at identifying practical alternatives to the employment of sophisticated models by considering simpler, yet sufficiently accurate methods for modeling rainfall-runoff relations with regard to hydrological extremes. The focus is thereby put on the prediction of low flow periods, which are, in contrast to flood events, characterized by extended durations and spatial dimensions. The models to be established in this study base on indicators, which characterize both meteorological and hydrological conditions within dry periods. This approach makes direct use of the coupling between atmospheric driving forces and streamflow response with the underlying presumption that low-precipitation and high-evaporation periods result in diminished flow, implying that relationships exist between the properties of both meteorological and hydrological events (duration, volume, severity etc.). Eventually, optimal combinations of meteorological indicators are sought that are suitable to predict various low flow characteristics with satisfactory accuracy. Two approaches for model specification are tested: a) multiple linear regression, and b) Fuzzy logic. The data used for this study are daily time series of mean discharge obtained from 294 gauges with variable record length situated in the federal state of Lower Saxony, Germany, as well as interpolated climate variables available for a period from 1951 to 2011. After extraction of a variety of indicators from the available

Will Global Climate Change Alter Fundamental Human Immune Reactivity: Implications for Child Health?

PubMed

Swaminathan, Ashwin; Lucas, Robyn M; Harley, David; McMichael, Anthony J

2014-11-11

The human immune system is an interface across which many climate change sensitive exposures can affect health outcomes. Gaining an understanding of the range of potential effects that climate change could have on immune function will be of considerable importance, particularly for child health, but has, as yet, received minimal research attention. We postulate several mechanisms whereby climate change sensitive exposures and conditions will subtly impair aspects of the human immune response, thereby altering the distribution of vulnerability within populations-particularly for children-to infection and disease. Key climate change-sensitive pathways include under-nutrition, psychological stress and exposure to ambient ultraviolet radiation, with effects on susceptibility to infection, allergy and autoimmune diseases. Other climate change sensitive exposures may also be important and interact, either additively or synergistically, to alter health risks. Conducting directed research in this area is imperative as the potential public health implications of climate change-induced weakening of the immune system at both individual and population levels are profound. This is particularly relevant for the already vulnerable children of the developing world, who will bear a disproportionate burden of future adverse environmental and geopolitical consequences of climate change.

Climate change and adverse health events: community perceptions from the Tanahu district of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Shiva Raj; Mani Bhandari, Parash; Issa, Rita; Neupane, Dinesh; Gurung, Swadesh; Khanal, Vishnu

2015-03-01

Nepal is a country economically dependent on climate-sensitive industries. It is highly vulnerable to the environmental, social, economic and health impacts of climate change. The objective of this study is to explore community perceptions of climate variability and human health risks. In this letter, we present a cross sectional study conducted between August 2013 and July 2014 in the Tanahu district of Nepal. Our analysis is based on 258 face-to-face interviews with household heads utilizing structured questionnaires. Over half of the respondents (54.7%) had perceived a change in climate, 53.9% had perceived an increase in temperature in the summer and 49.2% had perceived an increase in rainfall during the rainy season. Half of the respondents perceived an increase in the number of diseases during the summer, 46.5% perceived an increase during the rainy season and 48.8% during winter. Only 8.9% of the respondents felt that the government was doing enough to prevent climate change and its impact on their community. Belonging to the Janajati (indigenous) ethnic group, living in a pakki, super-pakki house and belonging to poor or mid-level income were related to higher odds of perceiving climate variability. Illiterates were less likely to perceive climate variability. Respondents living in a pakki house, super-pakki, or those who were poor were more likely to perceive health risks. Illiterates were less likely to perceive health risks.

Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Mastrandrea, Michael D

2010-07-13

Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

2011-12-01

The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

Lake-level increasing under the climate cryoaridization conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amosov, Mikhail; Strelkov, Ivan

2017-04-01

A lake genesis and lake-level increasing during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are the paramount issues in paleoclimatology. Investigating these problems reveals the regularities of lake development and figures out an arid territory conditions at the LGM stage. Pluvial theory is the most prevalent conception of lake formation during the LGM. This theory is based on a fact that the water bodies emerged and their level increased due to torrential rainfalls. In this study, it is paid attention to an alternative assumption of lake genesis at the LGM stage, which is called climate cryoaridization. In accordance with this hypothesis, the endorheic water basins had their level enlarged because of a simultaneous climate aridity and temperature decrease. In this research, a lake-level increasing in endorheic regions of Central Asia and South American Altiplano of the Andes is described. The lake investigation is related to its conditions during the LGM. The study also includes a lake catalogue clearly presenting the basin conditions at the LGM stage and nowadays. The data compilation partly consists of information from an earlier work of Mikhail Amosov, Lake-levels, Vegetation And Climate In Central Asia During The Last Glacial Maximum (EGU2014-3015). According to the investigation, a lake catalogue on 27 lakes showed that most of the water bodies had higher level. This feature could be mentioned for the biggest lakes of the Aral Sea, Lake Balkhash, Issyk-Kul etc. and for the small ones located in the mountains, such as Pamir, Tian-Shan and Tibet. Yet some lakes that are situated in Central Asian periphery (Lake Qinghai and lakes in Inner Mongolia) used to be lower than nowadays. Also, the lake-level increasing of Altiplano turned to be a significant feature during the LGM in accordance with the data of 5 lakes, such as Titicaca, Coipasa-Uyuni, Lejia, Miscanti and Santa-Maria. Most of the current endorheic basins at the LGM stage were filled with water due to abundant

Effects of climatic conditions and management practices on agricultural carbon and water budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long-term...

Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, T. K.; Reusser, D. E.; Schewe, J.; Lakes, T.; Kropp, J. P.

2014-10-01

Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions - and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the

Regional and global climate for the mid-Pliocene using CCSM4 with PlioMIP2 boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandan, D.; Peltier, W. R.

2016-12-01

The mid-Pliocene ( 3 Mya) hothouse continues to intrigue the climate community regarding the nature of the feedback mechanisms that could have amplified the warming that is expected from a modest concentration of atmospheric carbon-dioxide ( 300-400 ppmv). The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was created to help understand the mid-Pliocene climate through intercomparison between different climate models. The results from the first phase of this program revealed substantial variations between participating models and the pervasive inability of the models to capture the SST anomalies over equatorial upwelling regions and at high-latitude sites in the North Atlantic. The second phase, PlioMIP2 (Haywood et al., 2016), which has only recently begun, considerably revises the boundary conditions that are to be used with coupled-climate models, especially in high-latitude regions. The set of PlioMIP2 experiments which have been proposed will facilitate the attribution of the total warming to that arising from changes in (i) atmospheric CO2, (ii) orography and (iii) sea-ice extent, using the factor analysis methodology of Lunt et al., 2012. We have performed several very long, high-quality climate simulations from the PlioMIP2 set using the fully-coupled CCSM4/CESM1 model. We present our analysis of the mid-Pliocene climate based upon the results of these simulations and draw special attention to the extent of polar-amplification, the temperature pattern in the equatorial pacific and the existence and character of ENSO. In order to assess the regional and global impact of the new boundary conditions, our results are compared to the CCSM4 climate obtained using boundary conditions from the first phase of PlioMIP (Rosenbloom et al., 2013), to the PRISM3 (Dowsett et al., 2010) estimates for mid-Pliocene SST (relevant for the time-interval of study in PlioMIP), and to our own compilation of SST estimates for the time interval which is the focus in PlioMIP2

Extinction of CO2 Laser Radiation Under Adverse Weather Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

System Design 60 a, Gaussian Optics 60 b, Laser Transmissometer 61 4. Measurement Errors 68 VI DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 69 1, Introduction...water soluble aerosols (a 1 106 AFWAL-TR-81 -.1280 TABLE 17 EXTINCTION OF CO2 LASER LINES FOR A CONSTANI RAIN RATE OF 1.82 mm/HR, 22 APRIL, 1935 HOURS...number) Laser Propagation Rain Laser Extinction CO2 Lasers Adverse Weather Aerosol s - 20 RACT (Continue on reverse side If necessary

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current.

PubMed

Fleming, Alyson H; Clark, Casey T; Calambokidis, John; Barlow, Jay

2016-03-01

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate-related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20-year period (1993-2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi-decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Climate change as a driver for future human migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

2016-12-01

Human migration is driven by a multitude of factors, both socioeconomic and environmental. However, as impacts of anthropogenic climate change emerge and grow, it is widely conjectured that climate change will induce migration of human populations from areas that are adversely affected by climate change to areas that are less adversely or positively affected by climate change. Both low- and high-frequency climate changes have been empirically linked to migration in areas across the globe, but there has been little global-scale quantitative analysis projecting the scale and geography of climate-motivated migration. Considering temperature and precipitation in isolation from all other factors, here we project climate-driven impacts on the areal-density of human population. From this, we infer potential destinations and origins for the climate-motivated migration. Our results indicate that tropical and sub-tropical countries are the largest likely sources of migrants, with India being the country with the greatest number of potential climate emigrants. Global warming has the potential to motivate hundreds of millions of people to migrate in the coming decades, largely from warm tropical and subtropical countries to cooler temperate countries. Migration decisions will depend on many factors beyond climate; nevertheless our work establishes a foundation for quantifying future climate-motivated migration that can act as a starting point of more comprehensive assessments. The large number of potential climate migrants indicated by our analyses provides additional incentive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, take adaptive measures, and carefully consider migration policy.

Backscatter modelling and inversion from Cassini/SAR data: Implications for Titan's sand seas properties and climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, A.; Rodriguez, S.; Lemonnier, F.; Paillou, P.; Le Gall, A. A.; Narteau, C.

2015-12-01

Sand seas on Titan may reflect the present and past climatic conditions. Understanding the morphodynamics and physicochemical properties of Titan's dunes is therefore essential for a better comprehension of the climatic and geological history of the largest Saturn's moon. We derived quantitatively surface properties (texture, composition) from the modelling of microwave backscattered signal and Monte Carlo inversion of despeckled Cassini/SAR data over the equatorial sand seas. We show that dunes and inter-dunes have significantly different physical properties. Absorption is more efficient in the dunes compared to the inter-dunes. The inter-dunes are smoother with an higher dielectric constant than the dunes. Considering the composition, the inter-dunes are in between the dunes and the bright inselbergs, suggesting the presence of a shallow layer of sediment in between the dunes. Additionally potential secondary bedforms may have been detected. Implications for dune morphodynamics, sediment inventory and climatic conditions occurring on Titan will be discussed.

Worsened physical condition due to climate change contributes to the increasing hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay.

PubMed

Du, Jiabi; Shen, Jian; Park, Kyeong; Wang, Ya Ping; Yu, Xin

2018-07-15

There are increasing concerns about the impact of worsened physical condition on hypoxia in a variety of coastal systems, especially considering the influence of changing climate. In this study, an EOF analysis of the DO data for 1985-2012, a long-term numerical simulation of vertical exchange, and statistical analysis were applied to understand the underlying mechanisms for the variation of DO condition in Chesapeake Bay. Three types of analysis consistently demonstrated that both biological and physical conditions contribute equally to seasonal and interannual variations of the hypoxic condition in Chesapeake Bay. We found the physical condition (vertical exchange+temperature) determines the spatial and seasonal pattern of the hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. The EOF analysis showed that the first mode, which was highly related to the physical forcings and correlated with the summer hypoxia volume, can be well explained by seasonal and interannual variations of physical variables and biological activities, while the second mode is significantly correlated with the estuarine circulation and river discharge. The weakened vertical exchange and increased water temperature since the 1980s demonstrated a worsened physical condition over the past few decades. Under changing climate (e.g., warming, accelerated sea-level rise, altered precipitation and wind patterns), Chesapeake Bay is likely to experience a worsened physical condition, which will amplify the negative impact of anthropogenic inputs on eutrophication and consequently require more efforts for nutrient reduction to improve the water quality condition in Chesapeake Bay. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interpopulational Variations in Sexual Chemical Signals of Iberian Wall Lizards May Allow Maximizing Signal Efficiency under Different Climatic Conditions

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Sexual signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve to maximize efficacy under a given climatic condition. Thus, chemical secretions of lizards might evolve in the evolutionary time to ensure that signals are perfectly tuned to local humidity and temperature conditions affecting their volatility and therefore their persistence and transmission through the environment. We tested experimentally whether interpopulational altitudinal differences in chemical composition of femoral gland secretions of male Iberian wall lizards (Podarcis hispanicus) have evolved to maximize efficacy of chemical signals in different environmental conditions. Chemical analyses first showed that the characteristics of chemical signals of male lizards differed between two populations inhabiting environments with different climatic conditions in spite of the fact that these two populations are closely related genetically. We also examined experimentally whether the temporal attenuation of the chemical stimuli depended on simulated climatic conditions. Thus, we used tongue-flick essays to test whether female lizards were able to detect male scent marks maintained under different conditions of temperature and humidity by chemosensory cues alone. Chemosensory tests showed that chemical signals of males had a lower efficacy (i.e. detectability and persistence) when temperature and dryness increase, but that these effects were more detrimental for signals of the highest elevation population, which occupies naturally colder and more humid environments. We suggest that the abiotic environment may cause a selective pressure on the form and expression of sexual chemical signals. Therefore, interpopulational differences in chemical profiles of femoral secretions of male P. hispanicus lizards may reflect adaptation to maximize the efficacy of the chemical signal in different climates. PMID:26121693

Bat reproduction declines when conditions mimic climate change projections for western North America.

PubMed

Adams, Rick A

2010-08-01

Climate change models predict that much of western North America is becoming significantly warmer and drier, resulting in overall reductions in availability of water for ecosystems. Herein, I demonstrate that significant declines in the reproductive success of female insectivorous bats occur in years when annual environmental conditions mimic the long-term predictions of regional climate change models. Using a data set gathered on bat populations from 1996 through 2008 along the Front Range of Colorado, I compare trends in population numbers and reproductive outcomes of six species of vespertilionid bats with data on mean annual high temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and stream discharge rates. I show that levels of precipitation and flow rates of small streams near maternity colonies is fundamentally tied to successful reproduction in female bats, particularly during the lactation phase. Across years that experienced greater than average mean temperatures with less than average precipitation and stream flow, bat populations responded by slight to profound reductions in reproductive output depending on the severity of drought conditions. In particular, reproductive outputs showed profound declines (32-51%) when discharge rates of the largest stream in the field area dropped below 7 m3/s, indicating a threshold response. Such sensitivity to environmental change portends severe impacts to regional bat populations if current scenarios for climate change in western North America are accurate. In addition, bats act as early-warning indicators of large-scale ecological effects resulting from further regional warming and drying trends currently at play in western North America.

Small river plumes near the north-eastern coast of the Black Sea under climatic mean and flooding discharge conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osadchiev, Alexander; Korshenko, Evgeniya

2017-04-01

The study is focused on the impact of discharge from small rivers on propagation and final location of fluvial waters and suspended matter at the north-eastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers inflow into the sea at the studied region and most of them, except the several largest of them, have small annual runoff and limitedly affect adjacent coastal waters under climatic mean conditions. However, discharges of these small rivers are characterized by quick response to precipitation events and can dramatically increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the area under consideration. Propagation and final location of fluvial waters and terrigenous sediments at the studied region under climatic mean and rain-induced flooding conditions were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery and numerical modelling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers during climatic mean conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. Intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments form a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a north-western direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of narrow shelf at the north-eastern part of the Black Sea as compared to climatic mean discharge conditions.

Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yator, J. J.

2016-12-01

This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely

Advancing Research Methods to Detect Impact of Climate Change on Health in Grand'Anse, Haiti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, S.; Coq, R. N.; Frederic, R.; DeRiel, E.; Camara, H.; Barnhart, K. R.

2013-12-01

might result in worsening tropical storms that impede access due to the poor condition of footpaths and thus adversely affect maternal mortality. Additional factors such as deforestation and associated accelerated rainwater runoff may further worsen conditions. The linkage between maternal mortality and climate change will not be detected unless more robust methods are used. We propose using a mixed methods approach that combines use of secondary climate and health data (e.g. Landsat, stream flow, precipitation) with a stratified spatial sampling strategy across this complex land mass coupled with direct observation and qualitative methods using key informant interviews to probe for root causes of changes in health outcomes such as weather, deforestation, food and economic security. This mixed methods approach can be used for cross-sectional, retrospective and longitudinal studies linking the impact of climatological factors and important determinants of health such as economic activity. We propose that the impact of climate change on health will be best studied by mixed method approaches and that reliance on secondary data alone risks missing important associations between changes in climate and health.

Adverse environments and children's creativity development: transforming the notion of "success in adversity" in China.

PubMed

Cheng, Li; Tan, Mei; Liu, Zhengkui

2015-01-01

China has been undergoing great social change due to its new focus on urbanization and globalization. Such change has had a tremendous adverse impact on the living conditions of millions of young children, simultaneously generating new interest in children's creativity development. The intersection of these two issues has important implications for China's future as it brings together one of China's core cultural values-"success in adversity"-the importance of creativity, and very real social and economic needs. "Success in adversity" reflects the strongly held belief that individuals who suffer adverse environments can rise to excellence and success through persistence, effort, and creativity. In this article, we briefly explore the historical sources of this belief and how it is closely related to the Chinese conception of creativity. We then present some studies on the creativity of some of China's migrant children. Findings show that while migrant children as a group may not generally exhibit higher creativity than their urban peers as hypothesized, indications of resilience and creative potential suggest that the notion of success in adversity may contribute to the positive development of China's migrant children more substantially when it is informed by research and augmented by research-supported policy. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Seasonal variations of Saanen goat milk composition and the impact of climatic conditions.

PubMed

Kljajevic, Nemanja V; Tomasevic, Igor B; Miloradovic, Zorana N; Nedeljkovic, Aleksandar; Miocinovic, Jelena B; Jovanovic, Snezana T

2018-01-01

The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of climatic conditions and their impact on seasonal variations of physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk produced over a period of 4 years. Lactation period (early, mid and late) and year were considered as factors that influence physico-chemical composition of milk. Pearson's coefficient of correlation was calculated between the physico-chemical characteristics of milk (fat, proteins, lactose, non-fat dry matter, density, freezing point, pH, titrable acidity) and climatic condition parameters (air temperature, temperature humidity index-THI, solar radiation duration, relative humidity). Results showed that all physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk varied significantly throughout the lactation period and years. The decrease of fat, protein, non-fat dry matter and lactose content in goat milk during the mid-lactation period was more pronounced than was previously reported in the literature. The highest values for these characteristics were recorded in the late lactation period. Observed variations were explained by negative correlation between THI and the physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk. This indicated that Saanen goats were very prone to heat stress, which implied the decrease of physico-chemical characteristics during hot summers.

Adapting to Mother Nature's changing climatic conditions: Flexible stocking for enhancing profitability of Wyoming ranchers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ranching is a dynamic business in which profitability is impacted by changing weather and climatic conditions. A ranch-level model using a representative ranch in southeastern Wyoming was used to compare economic outcomes from growing season precipitation scenarios of: 1) historical precipitation da...

Conditional cold avoidance drives between-population variation in germination behaviour in Calluna vulgaris

PubMed Central

Spindelböck, Joachim P.; Cook, Zoë; Daws, Matthew I.; Heegaard, Einar; Måren, Inger E.; Vandvik, Vigdis

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Across their range, widely distributed species are exposed to a variety of climatic and other environmental conditions, and accordingly may display variation in life history strategies. For seed germination in cold climates, two contrasting responses to variation in winter temperature have been documented: first, an increased ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold tolerance) as winter temperatures decrease, and secondly a reduced ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold avoidance) that concentrates germination towards the warmer parts of the season. Methods Germination responses were tested for Calluna vulgaris, the dominant species of European heathlands, from ten populations collected along broad-scale bioclimatic gradients (latitude, altitude) in Norway, covering a substantial fraction of the species' climatic range. Incubation treatments varied from 10 to 25 °C, and germination performance across populations was analysed in relation to temperature conditions at the seed collection locations. Key Results Seeds from all populations germinated rapidly and to high final percentages under the warmer incubation temperatures. Under low incubation temperatures, cold-climate populations had significantly lower germination rates and percentages than warm-climate populations. While germination rates and percentages also increased with seed mass, seed mass did not vary along the climatic gradients, and therefore did not explain the variation in germination responses. Conclusions Variation in germination responses among Calluna populations was consistent with increased temperature requirements for germination towards colder climates, indicating a cold-avoidance germination strategy conditional on the temperature at the seeds' origin. Along a gradient of increasing temperatures this suggests a shift in selection pressures on germination from climatic adversity (i.e. low temperatures and potential frost risk in early or late season) to

Severity of statin-induced adverse effects on muscle and associated conditions: data from the DAMA study.

PubMed

Pedro-Botet, Juan; Millán Núñez-Cortés, Jesús; Chillarón, Juan J; Flores-Le Roux, Juana A; Rius, Joan

2016-12-01

Statins are generally well tolerated, but muscular adverse effects appear to be the most common obstacle limiting their use. Our objective was to describe the severity of muscle injury (myalgia, myositis and rhabdomyolysis) and associated conditions related to statin therapy that may be clinically significant. A cross-sectional one-visit, non-interventional, national multicenter study including patients of both sexes over 18 years of age referred for past or present muscle symptoms associated with statin therapy was conducted. Clinical, biochemical and drug therapy characteristics were obtained at the initial evaluation. 3,845 patients were recruited from a one-day record from 2,001 physicians. Myalgia was present in 78.2% of patients, myositis in 19.3% and rhabdomyolysis in 2.5%. The prevalence of different comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, and coronary heart disease increased as the severity of myopathy rose. High-intensity statin therapy was used in 33.4% of patients. Concomitant drugs metabolized by the CYP450 3A4 pathway were taken by 9.3% of patients, and statins with this metabolic route by 75%. Independent variables associated with myositis or rhabdomyolysis compared with myalgia alone in the multivariate model were excessive alcohol consumption and pravastatin therapy. Myalgia was the most common muscle adverse effect associated with statin therapy. Excessive alcohol consumption and pravastatin were independently associated with myositis or rhabdomyolysis.

Cost-sharing, physician utilization, and adverse selection among Medicare beneficiaries with chronic health conditions.

PubMed

Hoffman, Geoffrey

2015-02-01

Pooled data from the 2007, 2009, and 2011/2012 California Health Interview Surveys were used to compare the number of self-reported annual physician visits among 36,808 Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 in insurance groups with differential cost-sharing. Adjusted for adverse selection and a set of health covariates, Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) only beneficiaries had similar physician utilization compared with HMO enrollees but fewer visits compared with those with supplemental (1.04, p = .001) and Medicaid (1.55, p = .003) coverage. FFS only beneficiaries in very good or excellent health had fewer visits compared with those of similar health status with supplemental (1.30, p = .001) or Medicaid coverage (2.15, p = .002). For subpopulations with several chronic conditions, FFS only beneficiaries also had fewer visits compared with beneficiaries with supplemental or Medicaid coverage. Observed differences in utilization may reflect efficient and necessary physician utilization among those with chronic health needs. © The Author(s) 2014.

Probiotics production and alternative encapsulation methodologies to improve their viabilities under adverse environmental conditions.

PubMed

Coghetto, Chaline Caren; Brinques, Graziela Brusch; Ayub, Marco Antônio Záchia

2016-12-01

Probiotic products are dietary supplements containing live microorganisms producing beneficial health effects on the host by improving intestinal balance and nutrient absorption. Among probiotic microorganisms, those classified as lactic acid bacteria are of major importance to the food and feed industries. Probiotic cells can be produced using alternative carbon and nitrogen sources, such as agroindustrial residues, at the same time contributing to reduce process costs. On the other hand, the survival of probiotic cells in formulated food products, as well as in the host gut, is an essential nutritional aspect concerning health benefits. Therefore, several cell microencapsulation techniques have been investigated as a way to improve cell viability and survival under adverse environmental conditions, such as the gastrointestinal milieu of hosts. In this review, different aspects of probiotic cells and technologies of their related products are discussed, including formulation of culture media, and aspects of cell microencapsulation techniques required to improve their survival in the host.

Climate change reverses the competitive balance of ash and beech seedlings under simulated forest conditions.

PubMed

Saxe, H; Kerstiens, G

2005-07-01

This study identifies the important role of climate change and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) in the regenerative competence of ash and beech seedlings in 12 inter- and intra-specific competition designs in simulated mixed ash-beech forest gaps under conditions of non-limiting soil volume, water and nutrient supply. The growth conditions simulated natural forest conditions as closely as possible. Simulations were performed by growing interacting seedling canopies for one season in temperature-regulated closed-top chambers (CTCs). Eight CTCs were used in a factorial design with replicate treatments of [CO2] x temperature x PPFD x competition design. [CO2] tracked ambient levels or was 360 micromol mol-1 higher. Temperature tracked ambient levels or was 2.8 degrees C higher. PPFD on two plant tables inside each CTC was 16% and 5% of open-field levels, respectively, representative of typical light flux levels in a natural forest gap. In several of the competition designs, climate change made the ash seedlings grow taller than the beech seedlings and, at the same time, attain a larger leaf area and a larger total biomass. Advantages of this type for ash were found particularly at lower PPFD. There was a positive synergistic interaction of elevated temperature x [CO2] for both species, but more so for ash. There are many uncertainties when a study of chambered seedlings is to be projected to real changes in natural forests. Nevertheless, this study supports a possible future shift towards ash in north European, unmanaged, mixed ash-beech forests in response to the predicted climate change.

Climate and Health Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceccato, P.

2015-12-01

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases ( malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities; ministries of health; the WMO Global Framework for Climate and Services; and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above with examples in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Malawi.

Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina-Perez, Edmundo

: climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.

Climate Change and Air Pollution-Related Health Impacts in the United States: Assessment of Current Findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, P.; Fann, N.

2016-12-01

Ambient air pollution can be affected by climate in a variety of ways, which in turn have important implications for human health. Observed and projected changes in climate lead to modified weather pat­terns and biogenic emissions, which influence the levels and geographic patterns of outdoor air pollutants of health concern, including ground-level ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The USGCRP scientific assessment of the human health impacts of climate change concluded with high confidence that climate change will make it harder for any given regulatory approach to reduce ground-level ozone pollution in the future as meteorological conditions become increasingly conducive to forming ozone over most of the United States. Unless offset by additional emissions reductions of ozone precursors, these climate-driven increases in ozone will cause premature deaths, hospital visits, lost school days, and acute respiratory symptoms. The evidence for climate impacts on PM2.5 is less robust than that for ozone. However, one mechanism through which climate change is likely to affect PM2.5 as well as O3 in the United States is via impacts on wildfires. Wildfires emit precursors of both fine particles and O3, which increase the risk of premature death and adverse chronic and acute cardiovascular and respiratory health outcomes. Climate change is projected to increase the number and severity of naturally occurring wildfires in parts of the United States, increasing emissions of particulate matter and ozone precursors and resulting in additional adverse health outcomes. We present the key results and conclusions from a nationwide assessment of O3 health impacts in 2030, as well as new evidence for respiratory health effects of wildfires in the western United States.

Temporal variability of soil water repellency in field conditions under humid Mediterranean climate (South of Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Murillo, Juan F.; Gabarron-Galeote, Miguel A.; Ruiz-Sinoga, Jose D.

2013-04-01

Soil water repellency (SWR) has become an important field of scientific study because of its effects on soil hydrological behavior, including reduced matrix infiltration, development of fingered flow in structural or textural preferential flow paths, irregular wetting fronts, and increased runoff generation and soil erosion. The aim of this study is to evaluate the temporal variability of SWR in Mediterranean rangeland under humid Mediterranean climatic conditions (Tª=14.5 °C; P=1,010 mm y-1) in South of Spain. Every month from September 2008 to May 2009 (rainy season), soil moisture and SWR was measured in field conditions by means of gravimetric method and Water Drop Penetration Test, respectively. The entire tests were performed in differente eco-geomorphological conditions in the experimental site: North and South aspect hillslopes and beneath shrub and bare soil in every of them. The results indicate that: i) climatic conditions seem to be more transcendent than the vegetal cover for explaining the temporal variability of SWR in field conditions; ii) thus, SWR appears to be controlled by the antecedent rainfall and soil moisture; iii) more severity SWR were observed in patches characterized by sandier soils and/or greater organic matter contents; and iv) the factor 'hillslope aspect' was not found very influential in the degree of SWR.

Testing Projected Climate Change Conditions on the Endoconidiophora polonica / Norway spruce Pathosystem Shows Fungal Strain Specific Effects.

PubMed

Linnakoski, Riikka; Forbes, Kristian M; Wingfield, Michael J; Pulkkinen, Pertti; Asiegbu, Fred O

2017-01-01

Climate changes, exemplified by increased temperatures and CO 2 concentration, pose a global threat to forest health. Of particular concern are pests and pathogens, with a warming climate altering their distributions and evolutionary capacity, while impairing the ability of some plants to respond to infections. Progress in understanding and mitigating such effects is currently hindered by a lack of empirical research. Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) is one of the most economically important tree species in northern Europe, and is considered highly vulnerable to changes in climate. It is commonly infected by the fungus Endoconidiophora polonica , and we hypothesized that damage caused to trees will increase under future climate change predictions. To test this hypothesis an in vivo greenhouse experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of a changed growing environment on E. polonica infected Norway spruce seedlings, comparing ambient conditions to predicted temperatures and CO 2 levels in Finland for the years 2030 and 2100. In total, 450 seedlings were randomized amongst the three treatments, with 25 seedlings from each allocated to inoculation with one of five different fungal strains or mock-inoculation. Seedlings were monitored throughout the thermal growing season for mortality, and lesion length and depth indices were measured at the experiment conclusion. Disease severity (mortality and lesions) was consistently greater in fungal-inoculated than mock-inoculated seedlings. However, substantial differences were observed among fungal strains in response to climate scenarios. For example, although overall seedling mortality was highest under the most distant (and severe) climate change expectations, of the two fungal strains with the highest mortality counts (referred to as F4 and F5), one produced greater mortality under the 2030 and 2100 scenarios than ambient conditions, whereas climate scenario had no effect on the other. This study contributes to a

Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore.

PubMed

Irons, Rachel D; Harding Scurr, April; Rose, Alexandra P; Hagelin, Julie C; Blake, Tricia; Doak, Daniel F

2017-04-26

While the ecological effects of climate change have been widely observed, most efforts to document these impacts in terrestrial systems have concentrated on the impacts of temperature. We used tree swallow ( Tachycineta bicolor ) nest observations from two widely separated sites in central Alaska to examine the aspects of climate affecting breeding phenology at the northern extent of this species' range. We found that two measures of breeding phenology, annual lay and hatch dates, are more strongly predicted by windiness and precipitation than by temperature. At our longest-monitored site, breeding phenology has advanced at nearly twice the rate seen in more southern populations, and these changes correspond to long-term declines in windiness. Overall, adverse spring climate conditions known to negatively impact foraging success of swallows (wet, windy weather) appear to influence breeding phenology more than variation in temperature. Separate analyses show that short windy periods significantly delay initiation of individual clutches within years. While past reviews have emphasized that increasing variability in climate conditions may create physiological and ecological challenges for natural populations, we find that long-term reductions in inclement weather corresponded to earlier reproduction in one of our study populations. To better predict climate change impacts, ecologists need to more carefully test effects of multiple climate variables, including some, like windiness, that may be of paramount importance to some species, but have rarely been considered as strong drivers of ecological responses to climate alteration. © 2017 The Author(s).

Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore

PubMed Central

Irons, Rachel D.; Harding Scurr, April; Rose, Alexandra P.; Hagelin, Julie C.; Blake, Tricia

2017-01-01

While the ecological effects of climate change have been widely observed, most efforts to document these impacts in terrestrial systems have concentrated on the impacts of temperature. We used tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nest observations from two widely separated sites in central Alaska to examine the aspects of climate affecting breeding phenology at the northern extent of this species' range. We found that two measures of breeding phenology, annual lay and hatch dates, are more strongly predicted by windiness and precipitation than by temperature. At our longest-monitored site, breeding phenology has advanced at nearly twice the rate seen in more southern populations, and these changes correspond to long-term declines in windiness. Overall, adverse spring climate conditions known to negatively impact foraging success of swallows (wet, windy weather) appear to influence breeding phenology more than variation in temperature. Separate analyses show that short windy periods significantly delay initiation of individual clutches within years. While past reviews have emphasized that increasing variability in climate conditions may create physiological and ecological challenges for natural populations, we find that long-term reductions in inclement weather corresponded to earlier reproduction in one of our study populations. To better predict climate change impacts, ecologists need to more carefully test effects of multiple climate variables, including some, like windiness, that may be of paramount importance to some species, but have rarely been considered as strong drivers of ecological responses to climate alteration. PMID:28446701

Learning from adverse incidents involving medical devices.

PubMed

Amoore, John; Ingram, Paula

While an adverse event involving a medical device is often ascribed to either user error or device failure, the causes are typically multifactorial. A number of incidents involving medical devices are explored using this approach to investigate the various causes of the incident and the protective barriers that minimised or prevented adverse consequences. User factors, including mistakes, omissions and lack of training, conspired with background factors--device controls and device design, storage conditions, hidden device damage and physical layout of equipment when in use--to cause the adverse events. Protective barriers that prevented or minimised the consequences included staff vigilance, operating procedures and alarms.

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

2015-04-01

To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

Agriculture: Climate

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change affects agricultural producers because agriculture and fisheries depend on specific climate conditions. Temperature changes can cause crop planting dates to shift. Droughts and floods due to climate change may hinder farming practices.

Denitrification nitrogen gas formation and gene expression in alpine grassland soil as affected by climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhe; Wang, Changhui; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Schloter, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Dannenmann, Michael

2013-04-01

Due to methodological problems, reliable data on soil dinitrogen (N2) emission by denitrification are extremely scarce, and the impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) gas formation by denitrification and N gas product ratios as well as the underlying microbial drivers remain unclear. We combined the helium-gas-flow-soil-core technique for simultaneously quantification of nitrous oxide (N2O) and N2 emission with the reverse transcript qPCR technology. Our goals were to characterize denitrification dynamics and N gas product ratios in alpine grassland soil as affected by climate change conditions and to evaluate relationships between denitrification gene expression and N gas emission. We used soils from the pre-alpine grassland Terrestrial Environmental Observatory (TERENO), exposed to ambient temperature and precipitation (control treatment), or three years of simulated climate change conditions (increased temperature, reduction of summer precipitation and reduced snow cover). Soils were amended with glucose and nitrate and incubated subsequently at 1) 5°C and 20% oxygen; 2) 5°C and 0% oxygen; 3) 20°C and 0% oxygen until stabilization of N gas emissions in each incubation step. After switching incubation conditions to 0% oxygen and 20°C, N2O emission peaked immediately and declined again, followed by a delayed peak in N2 emission. The dynamics of cnorB gene expression, encoding the reduction of nitric oxide (NO) to N2O, followed the N2O emission pattern, while nosZ gene expression, encoding N2O reduction to N2 followed the course of N2 emission. The mean N2O:N2 ratios were 1.31 + 0.10 and 1.56 + 0.16 for control and climate change treatment respectively, but the denitrification potential was overall lower in climate change treatment. Hence, simulated climate change promoted N2O but lessened N2 emission. This stimulation of N2O was in accordance with increased cnorB gene expression in soil of the climate change treatment. N mass balance calculations revealed

Modeling daily soil temperature over diverse climate conditions in Iran—a comparison of multiple linear regression and support vector regression techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delbari, Masoomeh; Sharifazari, Salman; Mohammadi, Ehsan

2018-02-01

The knowledge of soil temperature at different depths is important for agricultural industry and for understanding climate change. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of a support vector regression (SVR)-based model in estimating daily soil temperature at 10, 30 and 100 cm depth at different climate conditions over Iran. The obtained results were compared to those obtained from a more classical multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The correlation sensitivity for the input combinations and periodicity effect were also investigated. Climatic data used as inputs to the models were minimum and maximum air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, dew point, and the atmospheric pressure (reduced to see level), collected from five synoptic stations Kerman, Ahvaz, Tabriz, Saghez, and Rasht located respectively in the hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, Mediterranean, and hyper-humid climate conditions. According to the results, the performance of both MLR and SVR models was quite well at surface layer, i.e., 10-cm depth. However, SVR performed better than MLR in estimating soil temperature at deeper layers especially 100 cm depth. Moreover, both models performed better in humid climate condition than arid and hyper-arid areas. Further, adding a periodicity component into the modeling process considerably improved the models' performance especially in the case of SVR.

Regression tree modeling of forest NPP using site conditions and climate variables across eastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Y.

2013-12-01

As evidence of global warming continue to increase, being able to predict forest response to climate changes, such as expected rise of temperature and precipitation, will be vital for maintaining the sustainability and productivity of forests. To map forest species redistribution by climate change scenario has been successful, however, most species redistribution maps lack mechanistic understanding to explain why trees grow under the novel conditions of chaining climate. Distributional map is only capable of predicting under the equilibrium assumption that the communities would exist following a prolonged period under the new climate. In this context, forest NPP as a surrogate for growth rate, the most important facet that determines stand dynamics, can lead to valid prediction on the transition stage to new vegetation-climate equilibrium as it represents changes in structure of forest reflecting site conditions and climate factors. The objective of this study is to develop forest growth map using regression tree analysis by extracting large-scale non-linear structures from both field-based FIA and remotely sensed MODIS data set. The major issue addressed in this approach is non-linear spatial patterns of forest attributes. Forest inventory data showed complex spatial patterns that reflect environmental states and processes that originate at different spatial scales. At broad scales, non-linear spatial trends in forest attributes and mixture of continuous and discrete types of environmental variables make traditional statistical (multivariate regression) and geostatistical (kriging) models inefficient. It calls into question some traditional underlying assumptions of spatial trends that uncritically accepted in forest data. To solve the controversy surrounding the suitability of forest data, regression tree analysis are performed using Software See5 and Cubist. Four publicly available data sets were obtained: First, field-based Forest Inventory and Analysis (USDA

Persistent millennial-scale link between Greenland climate and northern Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone under interglacial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartapanis, O.; Tachikawa, K.; Romero, O. E.; Bard, E.

2014-02-01

The intensity and/or extent of the northeastern Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) varied in-phase with the Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate on millennial timescales during the last glacial period, indicating the occurrence of atmospheric and oceanic connections under glacial conditions. While millennial variability was reported for both the Greenland and the northern Atlantic Ocean during the last interglacial period, the climatic connections with the northeastern Pacific OMZ has not yet been observed under warm interglacial conditions. Here we present a new geochemical dataset, spanning the past 120 ka, for major components (terrigenous fraction, marine organic matter, biogenic opal, and carbonates) generated by X-ray fluorescence scanning alongside with biological productivity and redox sensitive trace element content (Mo, Ni, Cd) of sediment core MD02-2508 at 23° N, retrieved from the northern limit of the modern OMZ. Based on elemental ratios Si / Ti (proxy for opal), Cd / Al and Ni / Al, we suggest that biological productivity was high during the last interglacial (MIS5). Highly resolved opal reconstruction presents millennial variability corresponding to all the Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial events over the last interglacial, while the Mo / Al ratio indicates reduced oxygenation during these events. Extremely high opal content during warm interstadials suggests high diatom productivity. Despite the different climatic and oceanic background between glacial and interglacial periods, rapid variability in the northeastern Pacific OMZ seems to be tightly related to Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate via atmospheric and possibly oceanic processes.

Biotech crops: imperative for achieving the millenium development goals and sustainability of agriculture in the climate change era.

PubMed

Husaini, Amjad M; Tuteja, Narendra

2013-01-01

Biotechnological intervention in the development of crops has opened new vistas in agriculture. Central to the accomplishment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), biotech-agriculture is essential in meeting these targets. Biotech crops have already made modest contributions toward ensuring food and nutrition security by reducing losses and increasing productivity, with less pesticide input. These crops could help address some of the major challenges in agriculture-based economies created by climate change. Projections of global climate change expect the concentration of greenhouse gases to increase, aridization of the environment to increase, temperature fluctuations to occur sharply and frequently, and spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall to be disturbed-all of which will increase abiotic stress-related challenges to crops. Countering these challenges and to meet the food requirement of the ever-increasing world population (expected to reach 9 billion by 2030) we need to (1) develop and use biotech crops for mitigating adverse climatic changes; (2) develop biotech crops resilient to adverse environmental conditions; and (3) address the issues/non-issues raised by NGO's and educate the masses about the benefits of biotech crops.

Multisensor System for Isotemporal Measurements to Assess Indoor Climatic Conditions in Poultry Farms

PubMed Central

Bustamante, Eliseo; Guijarro, Enrique; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan; Balasch, Sebastián; Hospitaler, Antonio; Torres, Antonio G.

2012-01-01

The rearing of poultry for meat production (broilers) is an agricultural food industry with high relevance to the economy and development of some countries. Periodic episodes of extreme climatic conditions during the summer season can cause high mortality among birds, resulting in economic losses. In this context, ventilation systems within poultry houses play a critical role to ensure appropriate indoor climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to develop a multisensor system to evaluate the design of the ventilation system in broiler houses. A measurement system equipped with three types of sensors: air velocity, temperature and differential pressure was designed and built. The system consisted in a laptop, a data acquisition card, a multiplexor module and a set of 24 air temperature, 24 air velocity and two differential pressure sensors. The system was able to acquire up to a maximum of 128 signals simultaneously at 5 second intervals. The multisensor system was calibrated under laboratory conditions and it was then tested in field tests. Field tests were conducted in a commercial broiler farm under four different pressure and ventilation scenarios in two sections within the building. The calibration curves obtained under laboratory conditions showed similar regression coefficients among temperature, air velocity and pressure sensors and a high goodness fit (R2 = 0.99) with the reference. Under field test conditions, the multisensor system showed a high number of input signals from different locations with minimum internal delay in acquiring signals. The variation among air velocity sensors was not significant. The developed multisensor system was able to integrate calibrated sensors of temperature, air velocity and differential pressure and operated succesfully under different conditions in a mechanically-ventilated broiler farm. This system can be used to obtain quasi-instantaneous fields of the air velocity and temperature, as well as differential

Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: A role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooper, Michael J.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Cristol, Daniel A.; Maryoung, Lindley A.; Noyes, Pamela D.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

2013-01-01

Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments.

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CHEMICAL AND CLIMATE STRESSORS: A ROLE FOR MECHANISTIC TOXICOLOGY IN ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS

PubMed Central

Hooper, Michael J; Ankley, Gerald T; Cristol, Daniel A; Maryoung, Lindley A; Noyes, Pamela D; Pinkerton, Kent E

2013-01-01

Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:32–48. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23136056

Impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate conditions in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yao; Markkanen, Tiina; Backman, Leif; Henttonen, Helena M.; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Laaksonen, Ari

2014-05-01

Climate response to anthropogenic land cover change happens more locally and occurs on a shorter time scale than the global warming due to increased GHGs. Over the second half of last Century, peatlands were vastly drained in Finland to stimulate forest growth for timber production. In this study, we investigate the biophysical effects of peatland forestation on near-surface climate conditions in Finland. For this, the regional climate model REMO, developed in Max Plank Institute (currently in Climate Service Center, Germany), provides an effective way. Two sets of 15-year climate simulations were done by REMO, using the historic (1920s; The 1st Finnish National Forest Inventory) and present-day (2000s; the 10th Finnish National Forest Inventory) land cover maps, respectively. The simulated surface air temperature and precipitation were then analyzed. In the most intensive peatland forestation area in Finland, the differences in monthly averaged daily mean surface air temperature show a warming effect around 0.2 to 0.3 K in February and March and reach to 0.5 K in April, whereas a slight cooling effect, less than 0.2 K, is found from May till October. Consequently, the selected snow clearance dates in model gridboxes over that area are advanced 0.5 to 4 days in the mean of 15 years. The monthly averaged precipitation only shows small differences, less than 10 mm/month, in a varied pattern in Finland from April to September. Furthermore, a more detailed analysis was conducted on the peatland forestation area with a 23% decrease in peatland and a 15% increase in forest types. 11 day running means of simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth were averaged over 15 years. Results show a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation between the surface air temperature and snow depth in snow melting period. This is because the warmer temperature caused by lower surface albedo due to more forest in snow cover period leads to a quicker and

Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework

PubMed Central

Ebi, Kristie L.

2017-01-01

A growing body of literature addresses how climate change is likely to have substantial and generally adverse effects on population health and health systems around the world. These effects are likely to vary within and between countries and, importantly, will vary depending on different socioeconomic development patterns. Transitioning to a more resilient and sustainable world to prepare for and manage the effects of climate change is likely to result in better health outcomes. Sustained fossil fuel development will likely result in continued high burdens of preventable conditions, such as undernutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases. Using a new set of socioeconomic development trajectories, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), along with the World Health Organization’s Operational Framework for Building Climate Resilient Health Systems, we extend existing storylines to illustrate how various aspects of health systems are likely to be affected under each SSP. We also discuss the implications of our findings on how the burden of mortality and the achievement of health-related Sustainable Development Goal targets are likely to vary under different SSPs. PMID:29267204

Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis - The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events.

PubMed

Novak, Klemen; de Luis, Martin; Saz, Miguel A; Longares, Luis A; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Raventós, Josep; Čufar, Katarina; Gričar, Jožica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Smith, Kevin T

2016-01-01

Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees

Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nadal, Martí, E-mail: marti.nadal@urv.cat; Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse

In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attentionmore » should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective.« less

Icing Conditions Over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Arzhanova, N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2013-12-01

Climate of the Russian Federation for the national territory. This Reference Book addresses the current state of these weather phenomena. However, the ongoing and projected humidity changes in the high latitudes will strongly affect the circum-polar area (land and ocean) and impact the frequency and intensity of these potentially dangerous weather phenomena across the entire extratropical land area. Therefore the goal of the present study is to quantify icing conditions over the northern Eurasia. Our analysis includes data of 958 Russian stations from 1977 to 2012. Regional analysis of gololed characteristics was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. The area-averaging technique using station values converted to anomalies with respect to a common reference period (in this study, from 1977 to 2012). Anomalies were arithmetically averaged first within 1N x 2E grid cells and thereafter by a weighted average value derived over the quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. This approach provides a more uniform spatial field for averaging.

Application priority of GSHP systems in the climate conditions of the United States

DOE PAGES

Cho, Soolyeon; Ray, Saurabh; Im, Piljae; ...

2017-05-15

Building energy-performance simulation programs are powerful tools for many aspects of feasibility studies regarding ground source heat pump (GSHP). However, the understanding of the limitations of the energy modelling programs, their capability of predicting energy performance early in the design process, and the complicated functionality of these programs makes the software programs harder to use and less practical. The interactive tool developed in this study seeks to provide analysis information in a straightforward manner that is inexpensive, convenient, and sophisticated. This tool uses an inclusive approach to assess the feasibility of GSHPs by prescreening critical factors such as climate conditions,more » ground temperatures, energy use, and cost savings. It is interactive and enables the user to do a feasibility analysis with a weighting factor for each feasibility criterion based on the user’s preference and interests. The application of the tool explains feasibility scores of 15 representative cities in various climatic conditions across the US. Results for commercial buildings show that the GSHP systems are more feasible in cold and dry, cool and humid, and very cold areas than warm and dry, very hot and humid, and mixed marine areas, and that most feasibility levels are located on good and moderate.« less

Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska.

PubMed

Brubaker, Michael; Berner, James; Chavan, Raj; Warren, John

2011-01-01

This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities. In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects. IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS: The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses. The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska. Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate. The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures.

Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska

PubMed Central

Brubaker, Michael; Berner, James; Chavan, Raj; Warren, John

2011-01-01

This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities. Background In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects. Implementation process The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses. Objective The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska. Findings Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate. Conclusion The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures. PMID:22022304

The potential health impacts of climate variability and change for the United States: executive summary of the report of the health sector of the U.S. National Assessment.

PubMed Central

Patz, J A; McGeehin, M A; Bernard, S M; Ebi, K L; Epstein, P R; Grambsch, A; Gubler, D J; Reither, P; Romieu, I; Rose, J B; Samet, J M; Trtanj, J

2000-01-01

We examined the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human health as part of a congressionally mandated study of climate change in the United States. Our author team, comprising experts from academia, government, and the private sector, was selected by the federal interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program, and this report stems from our first 18 months of work. For this assessment we used a set of assumptions and/or projections of future climates developed for all participants in the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. We identified five categories of health outcomes that are most likely to be affected by climate change because they are associated with weather and/or climate variables: temperature-related morbidity and mortality; health effects of extreme weather events (storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and precipitation extremes); air-pollution-related health effects; water- and foodborne diseases; and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. We concluded that the levels of uncertainty preclude any definitive statement on the direction of potential future change for each of these health outcomes, although we developed some hypotheses. Although we mainly addressed adverse health outcomes, we identified some positive health outcomes, notably reduced cold-weather mortality, which has not been extensively examined. We found that at present most of the U.S. population is protected against adverse health outcomes associated with weather and/or climate, although certain demographic and geographic populations are at increased risk. We concluded that vigilance in the maintenance and improvement of public health systems and their responsiveness to changing climate conditions and to identified vulnerable subpopulations should help to protect the U.S. population from any adverse health outcomes of projected climate change. PMID:10753097

The potential health impacts of climate variability and change for the United States: executive summary of the report of the health sector of the U.S. National Assessment.

PubMed

Patz, J A; McGeehin, M A; Bernard, S M; Ebi, K L; Epstein, P R; Grambsch, A; Gubler, D J; Reither, P; Romieu, I; Rose, J B; Samet, J M; Trtanj, J

2000-04-01

We examined the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human health as part of a congressionally mandated study of climate change in the United States. Our author team, comprising experts from academia, government, and the private sector, was selected by the federal interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program, and this report stems from our first 18 months of work. For this assessment we used a set of assumptions and/or projections of future climates developed for all participants in the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. We identified five categories of health outcomes that are most likely to be affected by climate change because they are associated with weather and/or climate variables: temperature-related morbidity and mortality; health effects of extreme weather events (storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and precipitation extremes); air-pollution-related health effects; water- and foodborne diseases; and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. We concluded that the levels of uncertainty preclude any definitive statement on the direction of potential future change for each of these health outcomes, although we developed some hypotheses. Although we mainly addressed adverse health outcomes, we identified some positive health outcomes, notably reduced cold-weather mortality, which has not been extensively examined. We found that at present most of the U.S. population is protected against adverse health outcomes associated with weather and/or climate, although certain demographic and geographic populations are at increased risk. We concluded that vigilance in the maintenance and improvement of public health systems and their responsiveness to changing climate conditions and to identified vulnerable subpopulations should help to protect the U.S. population from any adverse health outcomes of projected climate change.

Climatic Extremes and Food Grain Production in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A, A.; Mishra, V.

2015-12-01

Climate change is likely to affect food and water security in India. India has witnessed tremendous growth in its food production after the green revolution. However, during the recent decades the food grain yields were significantly affected by the extreme climate and weather events. Air temperature and associated extreme events (number of hot days and hot nights, heat waves) increased significantly during the last 50 years in the majority of India. More remarkably, a substantial increase in mean and extreme temperatures was observed during the winter season in India. On the other hand, India witnessed extreme flood and drought events that have become frequent during the past few decades. Extreme rainfall during the non-monsoon season adversely affected the food grain yields and results in tremendous losses in several parts of the country. Here we evaluate the changes in hydroclimatic extremes and its linkage with the food grain production in India. We use observed food grain yield data for the period of 1980-2012 at district level. We understand the linkages between food grain yield and crop phenology obtained from the high resolution leaf area index and NDVI datasets from satellites. We used long-term observed data of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to evaluate changes in the extreme events. We use statistical models to develop relationships between crop yields, mean and extreme temperatures for various crops to understand the sensitivity of these crops towards changing climatic conditions. We find that some of the major crop types and predominant crop growing areas have shown a significant sensitivity towards changes in extreme climatic conditions in India.

Health hazards in areas of military operations conducted in different climatic and sanitary conditions.

PubMed

Korzeniewski, Krzysztof

2011-01-01

This paper reviews the most common health hazards occurring among personnel of peacekeeping and stabilization missions functioning within armed conflicts in the contemporary world. Military operations have been executed in diverse climatic and sanitary conditions, which are frequently unfamiliar for their participants. Some of them, e.g. the UN peacekeeping missions in the Middle East (Lebanon, the Golan Heights), have been carried out in a relatively stable geopolitical environment; whereas, stabilization missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, which are actually combat activities, undoubtedly fall into the group of the most perilous military operations in the world. Hot or cold climate, poor sanitary and hygienic conditions along with warfare facilitate the occurrence of numerous diseases and body injuries not only among the local people but also among peacekeepers, who represent the population of immigrants. Health hazards which pose major epidemiological threats in combat zones are arthropod-borne, food and water-borne, respiratory tract diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, enzootic diseases, battle injuries, and non- -battle injuries, e.g. traffic accidents. Another considerable health problem are psychiatric disorders, which can either appear directly after the occurrence of a traumatic event in a combat zone or indirectly, after some time had elapsed. In addition to the health hazards listed above, environmental factors such as changeable weather conditions and local fauna may also be life threatening.

Cumulative early life adversity predicts longevity in wild baboons

PubMed Central

Tung, Jenny; Archie, Elizabeth A.; Altmann, Jeanne; Alberts, Susan C.

2016-01-01

In humans and other animals, harsh circumstances in early life predict morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Multiple adverse conditions are thought to be especially toxic, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested in a prospective, longitudinal framework, especially in long-lived mammals. Here we use prospective data on 196 wild female baboons to show that cumulative early adversity predicts natural adult lifespan. Females who experience ≥3 sources of early adversity die a median of 10 years earlier than females who experience ≤1 adverse circumstances (median lifespan is 18.5 years). Females who experience the most adversity are also socially isolated in adulthood, suggesting that social processes partially explain the link between early adversity and adult survival. Our results provide powerful evidence for the developmental origins of health and disease and indicate that close ties between early adversity and survival arise even in the absence of health habit and health care-related explanations. PMID:27091302

Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Soumik; Bhatla, R.; Mall, R. K.; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Sahai, A. K.

2018-03-01

Climate model faces considerable difficulties in simulating the rainfall characteristics of southwest summer monsoon. In this study, the dynamical downscaling of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF's) ERA-Interim (EIN15) has been utilized for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) through the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) over the South Asia Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) domain. The complexities of model simulation over a particular terrain are generally influenced by factors such as complex topography, coastal boundary, and lack of unbiased initial and lateral boundary conditions. In order to overcome some of these limitations, the RegCM-4.3 is employed for simulating the rainfall characteristics over the complex topographical conditions. For reliable rainfall simulation, implementations of numerous lower boundary conditions are forced in the RegCM-4.3 with specific horizontal grid resolution of 50 km over South Asia CORDEX domain. The analysis is considered for 30 years of climatological simulation of rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and wind with different vertical levels over the specified region. The dependency of model simulation with the forcing of EIN15 initial and lateral boundary conditions is used to understand the impact of simulated rainfall characteristics during different phases of summer monsoon. The results obtained from this study are used to evaluate the activity of initial conditions of zonal wind circulation speed, which causes an increase in the uncertainty of regional model output over the region under investigation. Further, the results showed that the EIN15 zonal wind circulation lacks sufficient speed over the specified region in a particular time, which was carried forward by the RegCM output and leads to a disrupted regional simulation in the climate model.

Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naylor, R. L.

2013-12-01

Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

Adverse Environments and Children's Creativity Development: Transforming the Notion of "Success in Adversity" in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Li; Tan, Mei; Liu, Zhengkui

2015-01-01

China has been undergoing great social change due to its new focus on urbanization and globalization. Such change has had a tremendous adverse impact on the living conditions of millions of young children, simultaneously generating new interest in children's creativity development. The intersection of these two issues has important implications…

Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

2015-01-01

Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of

Potential Alternative Lower Global Warming Refrigerants for Air Conditioning in Hot Climates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abdelaziz, Omar; Shrestha, Som S; Shen, Bo

The earth continues to see record increase in temperatures and extreme weather conditions that is largely driven by anthropogenic emissions of warming gases such as carbon dioxide and other more potent greenhouse gases such as refrigerants. The cooperation of 188 countries in the Conference of the Parties in Paris 2015 (COP21) resulted in an agreement aimed to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2 C. A global phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can prevent 0.5 C of warming by 2100. However, most of the countries in hot climates are consideredmore » as developing countries and as such are still using R-22 (a Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)) as the baseline refrigerant and are currently undergoing a phase-out of R-22 which is controlled by current Montreal Protocol to R-410A and other HFC based refrigerants. These HFCs have significantly high Global Warming Potential (GWP) and might not perform as well as R-22 at high ambient temperature conditions. In this paper we present recent results on evaluating the performance of alternative lower GWP refrigerants for R-22 and R-410A for small residential mini-split air conditioners and large commercial packaged units. Results showed that several of the alternatives would provide adequate replacement for R-22 with minor system modification. For the R-410A system, results showed that some of the alternatives were almost drop-in ready with benefit in efficiency and/or capacity. One of the most promising alternatives for R-22 mini-split unit is propane (R-290) as it offers higher efficiency; however it requires compressor and some other minor system modification to maintain capacity and minimize flammability risk. Between the R-410A alternatives, R-32 appears to have a competitive advantage; however at the cost of higher compressor discharge temperature. With respect to the hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) blends, there existed a tradeoff in performance and system

Growing Season Conditions Mediate the Dependence of Aspen on Redistributed Snow Under Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soderquist, B.; Kavanagh, K.; Link, T. E.; Seyfried, M. S.; Strand, E. K.

2016-12-01

Precipitation regimes in many semiarid ecosystems are becoming increasingly dominated by winter rainfall as a result of climate change. Across these regions, snowpack plays a vital role in the distribution and timing of soil moisture availability. Rising temperatures will result in a more uniform distribution of soil moisture, advanced spring phenology, and prolonged growing seasons. Productive and wide ranging tree species like aspen, Populus tremuloides, may experience increased vulnerability to drought and mortality resulting from both reduced snowpack and increased evaporative demand during the growing season. We simulated the net primary production (NPP) of aspen stands spanning the rain:snow transition zone in the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory (RCCZO) in southwest Idaho, USA. Within the RCCZO, the total amount of precipitation has remained unchanged over the past 50 years, however the percentage of the precipitation falling as snow has declined by approximately 4% per decade at mid-elevation sites. The biogeochemical process model Biome-BGC was used to simulate aspen NPP at three stands located directly below snowdrifts that provide melt water late into the spring. After adjusting precipitation inputs to account for the redistribution of snow, we assessed climate change impacts on future aspen productivity. Mid-century (2046-2065) aspen NPP was simulated using temperature projections from a multi-model average under high emission conditions using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) data set. While climate change simulations indicated over a 20% decrease in annual NPP for some years, NPP rates for other mid-century years remained relatively unchanged due to variations in growing season conditions. Mid-century years with the largest decreases in NPP typically showed increased spring transpiration rates resulting from earlier leaf flush combined with warmer spring conditions. During these years, the onset of drought stress occurred

Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis – The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events

PubMed Central

Novak, Klemen; de Luis, Martin; Saz, Miguel A.; Longares, Luis A.; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Raventós, Josep; Čufar, Katarina; Gričar, Jožica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K.; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Smith, Kevin T.

2016-01-01

Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees

Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions.

PubMed

Rugiu, Luca; Manninen, Iita; Rothäusler, Eva; Jormalainen, Veijo

2018-03-01

Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CLIMATE CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE WITHIN-PLANT SPREAD OF BROAD MITES ON AZALEA.

PubMed

Mechant, E; Pauwels, E; Gobin, B

2014-01-01

The broad mite Polyphagotarsonemus latus (Banks) is considered a major pest in potted azalea, Flanders' flagship ornamental crop of Rhododendron simsii hybrids. In addition to severe economic damage, the broad mite is dreaded for its increasing resistance to acaricides. Due to restrictions in the use of broad spectrum acaricides, Belgian azalea growers are left with only three compounds, belonging to two mode of action groups and restricted in their number of applications, for broad mite control: abamectin, milbemectin and pyrethrin. Although P. latus can be controlled with predatory mites, the high cost of this system makes it (not yet) feasible for integration into standard azalea pest management systems. Hence, a maximum efficacy of treatments with available compounds is essential. Because abamectin, milbemectin and pyrethrin are contact acaricides with limited trans laminar flow, only broad mites located on shoot tips of azalea plants will be controlled after spraying. Consequently, the efficacy of chemical treatments is influenced by the location and spread of P. latus on the plant. Unfortunately, little is known on broad mites' within-plant spread or how it is affected by climatic conditions like temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, experiments were set up to verify whether climate conditions have an effect on the location and migration of broad mites on azalea. Broad mite infected azalea plants were placed in standard growth chambers under different temperature (T:2.5-25°C) and relative humidity (RH:55-80%) treatments. Within-plant spread was determined by counting mites on the shoot tips and inner leaves of azalea plants. Results indicate that temperature and relative humidity have no significant effect on the within-plant spread of P. latus. To formulate recommendations for optimal spray conditions to maximize the efficacy of broad mite control with acaricides, further experiments on the effect of light intensity and rain are scheduled.

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape.

PubMed

Kahilainen, Aapo; van Nouhuys, Saskya; Schulz, Torsti; Saastamoinen, Marjo

2018-04-23

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long-term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life-history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by

Satellite-based characterization of climatic conditions before large-scale general flowering events in Peninsular Malaysia

PubMed Central

Azmy, Muna Maryam; Hashim, Mazlan; Numata, Shinya; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md.; Fletcher, Christine

2016-01-01

General flowering (GF) is a unique phenomenon wherein, at irregular intervals, taxonomically diverse trees in Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests synchronize their reproduction at the community level. Triggers of GF, including drought and low minimum temperatures a few months previously has been limitedly observed across large regional scales due to lack of meteorological stations. Here, we aim to identify the climatic conditions that trigger large-scale GF in Peninsular Malaysia using satellite sensors, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to evaluate the climatic conditions of focal forests. We observed antecedent drought, low temperature and high photosynthetic radiation conditions before large-scale GF events, suggesting that large-scale GF events could be triggered by these factors. In contrast, we found higher-magnitude GF in forests where lower precipitation preceded large-scale GF events. GF magnitude was also negatively influenced by land surface temperature (LST) for a large-scale GF event. Therefore, we suggest that spatial extent of drought may be related to that of GF forests, and that the spatial pattern of LST may be related to that of GF occurrence. With significant new findings and other results that were consistent with previous research we clarified complicated environmental correlates with the GF phenomenon. PMID:27561887

Satellite-based characterization of climatic conditions before large-scale general flowering events in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Azmy, Muna Maryam; Hashim, Mazlan; Numata, Shinya; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md; Fletcher, Christine

2016-08-26

General flowering (GF) is a unique phenomenon wherein, at irregular intervals, taxonomically diverse trees in Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests synchronize their reproduction at the community level. Triggers of GF, including drought and low minimum temperatures a few months previously has been limitedly observed across large regional scales due to lack of meteorological stations. Here, we aim to identify the climatic conditions that trigger large-scale GF in Peninsular Malaysia using satellite sensors, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to evaluate the climatic conditions of focal forests. We observed antecedent drought, low temperature and high photosynthetic radiation conditions before large-scale GF events, suggesting that large-scale GF events could be triggered by these factors. In contrast, we found higher-magnitude GF in forests where lower precipitation preceded large-scale GF events. GF magnitude was also negatively influenced by land surface temperature (LST) for a large-scale GF event. Therefore, we suggest that spatial extent of drought may be related to that of GF forests, and that the spatial pattern of LST may be related to that of GF occurrence. With significant new findings and other results that were consistent with previous research we clarified complicated environmental correlates with the GF phenomenon.

Climate Change Impacts on Environmental and Human Exposure to Mercury in the Arctic

PubMed Central

Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Rautio, Arja

2015-01-01

This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure. PMID:25837201

Climate change impacts on environmental and human exposure to mercury in the arctic.

PubMed

Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G; Rautio, Arja

2015-03-31

This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure.

Climate change alters the optimal wind-dependent flight routes of an avian migrant

PubMed Central

Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M.; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

2017-01-01

Migratory birds can be adversely affected by climate change as they encounter its geographically uneven impacts in various stages of their life cycle. While a wealth of research is devoted to the impacts of climate change on distribution range and phenology of migratory birds, the indirect effects of climate change on optimal migratory routes and flyways, through changes in air movements, are poorly understood. Here, we predict the influence of climate change on the migratory route of a long-distant migrant using an ensemble of correlative modelling approaches, and present and future atmospheric data obtained from a regional climate model. We show that changes in wind conditions by mid-century will result in a slight shift and reduction in the suitable areas for migration of the study species, the Oriental honey-buzzard, over a critical section of its autumn journey, followed by a complete loss of this section of the traditional route by late century. Our results highlight the need for investigating the consequences of climate change-induced disturbance in wind support for long-distance migratory birds, particularly species that depend on the wind to cross ecological barriers, and those that will be exposed to longer journeys due to future range shifts. PMID:28469028

Climate change alters the optimal wind-dependent flight routes of an avian migrant.

PubMed

Nourani, Elham; Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

2017-05-17

Migratory birds can be adversely affected by climate change as they encounter its geographically uneven impacts in various stages of their life cycle. While a wealth of research is devoted to the impacts of climate change on distribution range and phenology of migratory birds, the indirect effects of climate change on optimal migratory routes and flyways, through changes in air movements, are poorly understood. Here, we predict the influence of climate change on the migratory route of a long-distant migrant using an ensemble of correlative modelling approaches, and present and future atmospheric data obtained from a regional climate model. We show that changes in wind conditions by mid-century will result in a slight shift and reduction in the suitable areas for migration of the study species, the Oriental honey-buzzard, over a critical section of its autumn journey, followed by a complete loss of this section of the traditional route by late century. Our results highlight the need for investigating the consequences of climate change-induced disturbance in wind support for long-distance migratory birds, particularly species that depend on the wind to cross ecological barriers, and those that will be exposed to longer journeys due to future range shifts. © 2017 The Author(s).

Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation.

PubMed

Haines, A; Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D; Corvalan, C

2006-06-24

It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways--eg, as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold-related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries might also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public-health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of a number of renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution.

Trichoderma for climate resilient agriculture.

PubMed

Kashyap, Prem Lal; Rai, Pallavi; Srivastava, Alok Kumar; Kumar, Sudheer

2017-08-01

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of the twenty-first century for sustainable agricultural production. Several reports highlighted the need for better agricultural practices and use of eco-friendly methods for sustainable crop production under such situations. In this context, Trichoderma species could be a model fungus to sustain crop productivity. Currently, these are widely used as inoculants for biocontrol, biofertilization, and phytostimulation. They are reported to improve photosynthetic efficiency, enhance nutrient uptake and increase nitrogen use efficiency in crops. Moreover, they can be used to produce bio-energy, facilitate plants for adaptation and mitigate adverse effect of climate change. The technological advancement in high throughput DNA sequencing and biotechnology provided deep insight into the complex and diverse biotic interactions established in nature by Trichoderma spp. and efforts are being made to translate this knowledge to enhance crop growth, resistance to disease and tolerance to abiotic stresses under field conditions. The discovery of several traits and genes that are involved in the beneficial effects of Trichoderma spp. has resulted in better understanding of the performance of bioinoculants in the field, and will lead to more efficient use of these strains and possibly to their improvement by genetic modification. The present mini-review is an effort to elucidate the molecular basis of plant growth promotion and defence activation by Trichoderma spp. to garner broad perspectives regarding their functioning and applicability for climate resilient agriculture.

Climate and Population Health Vulnerabilities to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience Under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.; Kruczkiewicz, A.; Lessel, J.; Jensen, K.; Thomson, M. C.

2014-12-01

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities, ministries of health and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above.

A study of different indicators of Maillard reaction with whey proteins and different carbohydrates under adverse storage conditions.

PubMed

Leiva, Graciela E; Naranjo, Gabriela B; Malec, Laura S

2017-01-15

This study examined different indicators of each stage of Maillard reaction under adverse storage conditions in a system with whey proteins and lactose or glucose. The analysis of lysine loss by the o-phthaldialdehyde method can be considered a good indicator of the early stage, showing considerable differences in reactivity when systems with mono and disaccharides were analyzed. Capillary electrophoresis proved to be a sensitive method for evaluating the extent of glycosylation of the native proteins, providing valuable information when the loss of lysine was not significant. The estimation of the Amadori compound from the determination of total 5-hydroxymethyl-2-furfuraldehyde would have correlate well with reactive lysine content if the advanced stages of the reaction had not been reached. For assessing the occurrence of the intermediate and final stages, the measurement of free 5-hydroxymethyl-2-furfuraldehyde and color, proved not to be suitable for storage conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The interdecadal worsening of weather conditions affecting aerosol pollution in the Beijing area in relation to climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhong, Junting; Wang, Jizhi; Wang, Yaqiang; Liu, Yanju

2018-04-01

The weather conditions affecting aerosol pollution in Beijing and its vicinity (BIV) in wintertime have worsened in recent years, particularly after 2010. The relation between interdecadal changes in weather conditions and climate warming is uncertain. Here, we analyze long-term variations of an integrated pollution-linked meteorological index (which is approximately and linearly related to aerosol pollution), the extent of changes in vertical temperature differences in the boundary layer (BL) in BIV, and northerly surface winds from Lake Baikal during wintertime to evaluate the potential contribution of climate warming to changes in meteorological conditions directly related to aerosol pollution in this area; this is accomplished using NCEP reanalysis data, surface observations, and long-term vertical balloon sounding observations since 1960. The weather conditions affecting BIV aerosol pollution are found to have worsened since the 1960s as a whole. This worsening is more significant after 2010, with PM2.5 reaching unprecedented high levels in many cities in China, particularly in BIV. The decadal worsening of meteorological conditions in BIV can partly be attributed to climate warming, which is defined by more warming in the higher layers of the boundary layer (BL) than the lower layers. This worsening can also be influenced by the accumulation of aerosol pollution, to a certain extent (particularly after 2010), because the increase in aerosol pollution from the ground leads to surface cooling by aerosol-radiation interactions, which facilitates temperature inversions, increases moisture accumulations, and results in the extra deterioration of meteorological conditions. If analyzed as a linear trend, weather conditions have worsened by ˜ 4 % each year from 2010 to 2017. Given such a deterioration rate, the worsening of weather conditions may lead to a corresponding amplitude increase in PM2.5 in BIV during wintertime in the next 5 years (i.e., 2018 to 2022

Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, Courtney; Melillo, Jerry

2015-09-15

Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments thatmore » encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.« less

Sustainability of socio-hydro system with changing value and preference to an uncertain future climate and economic conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roobavannan, Mahendran; Kandasamy, Jaya; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuththu; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2016-04-01

Water-human systems are coupled and display co-evolutionary dynamics influenced by society's values and preference. This has been observed in the Murrumbidgee basin, Australia where water usage initially focused on agriculture production and until mid-1990's favoured agriculture. This turned around as society became more concerned about the degradation of ecosystems and ultimately water was reallocated back towards the environment. This new water management adversely impacted the agriculture sector and created economic stress in the basin. The basin communities were able to transform and cope with water allocation favouring the environment through sectoral transformation facilitated by movement of capital in a free economy, supported by appropriate strategies and funding. This was helped by the adaptive capacity of people through reemployment in other economic sectors of the basin economy, unemployment for a period of time and migration out of the basin, and crop diversification. This study looks to the future and focuses on how water managers could be informed and prepare for un-foreseen issues coming out of societies changing values and preferences and emerging as different systems in the basin interact with each other at different times and speed. The issues of this type that concern the Murray Darling Basin Authority include a renewed focus and priority on food production due to food scarcity; increased impact and frequency of natural disasters (eg. climate change); regional economic diversification due to the growth of peri-urban development in the basin; institutional capacity for water reform due to new political paradigms (eg. new water sharing plans); and improvement in science and technology (eg. farm practices, water efficiency, water reuse). To undertake this, the study uses a coupled socio-hydrological dynamical system that model the major drivers of changing economic conditions, society values and preference, climatic condition and science and

Forest management under changing climate conditions: Is timing a tool for Sustainable Forest Management? Relevant questions for research development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Aprile, Fabrizio; McShane, Paul; Tapper, Nigel

2013-04-01

Change of climate conditions influence energy fluxes applicable to forest ecosystems. These affect cycles of nutrients and materials, primary productivity of the ecosystem, biodiversity, ecological functionality and, consequently, carbon equilibria of the forest ecosystem. Temporal factors influence physical, biological, ecological, and climatic processes and functions. For example, seasonality, cycles, periodicity, and trends in climate variables; tree growth, forest growth, and forest metabolic activities (i.e., photosynthesis and respiration) are commonly known to be time-related. In tropical forests, the impacts of changing climate conditions may exceed temperature and/or precipitation thresholds critical to forest tree growth or health. Historically, forest management emphasises growth rates and financial returns as affected by species and site. Until recently, the influence of climate variability on growth dynamics has not been influential in forest planning and management. Under this system, especially in climatic and forest regions where most of species are stenoecious, periodical wood harvesting may occur in any phase of growth (increasing, decreasing, peak, and trough). This scenario presents four main situations: a) harvesting occurs when the rate of growth is decreasing: future productivity is damaged; the minimum biomass capital may be altered, and CO2 storage is negatively affected; b) harvesting occurs during a trough of the rate of growth: the minimum biomass capital necessary to preserve the resilience of the forest is damaged; the damage can be temporary (decades) or permanent; CO2 storage capacity is deficient - which may be read as an indirect emission of CO2 since the balance appears negative; c) harvesting occurs when the rate of growth is increasing: the planned wood mass can be used without compromising the resilience and recovery of the forest; CO2 storage remains increasing; d) harvesting occurs during a peak period of growth: the wood

Mandate for the Nursing Profession to Address Climate Change Through Nursing Education.

PubMed

Leffers, Jeanne; Levy, Ruth McDermott; Nicholas, Patrice K; Sweeney, Casey F

2017-11-01

The adverse health effects from climate change demand action from the nursing profession. This article examines the calls to action, the status of climate change in nursing education, and challenges and recommendations for nursing education related to climate change and human health. Discussion paper. The integration of climate change into nursing education is essential so that knowledge, skills, and insights critical for clinical practice in our climate-changing world are incorporated in curricula, practice, research, and policy. Our Ecological Planetary Health Model offers a framework for nursing to integrate relevant climate change education into nursing curricula and professional nursing education. Nursing education can offer a leadership role to address the mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies for climate change. An ecological framework is valuable for nursing education regarding climate change through its consideration of political, cultural, economic, and environmental interrelationships on human health and the health of the planet. Knowledge of climate change is important for integration into basic and advanced nursing education, as well as professional education for nurses to address adverse health impacts, climate change responses policy, and advocacy roles. For current and future nurses to provide care within a climate-changing environment, nursing education has a mandate to integrate knowledge about climate change issues across all levels of nursing education. Competence in nursing practice follows from knowledge and skill acquisition gained from integration of climate change content into nursing education. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review.

PubMed

Nadal, Martí; Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Domingo, José L

2015-11-01

In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attention should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adverse childhood experiences and health anxiety in adulthood.

PubMed

Reiser, Sarah J; McMillan, Katherine A; Wright, Kristi D; Asmundson, Gordon J G

2014-03-01

Childhood experiences are thought to predispose a person to the development of health anxiety later in life. However, there is a lack of research investigating the influence of specific adverse experiences (e.g., childhood abuse, household dysfunction) on this condition. The current study examined the cumulative influence of multiple types of childhood adversities on health anxiety in adulthood. Adults 18-59 years of age (N=264) completed a battery of measures to assess adverse childhood experiences, health anxiety, and associated constructs (i.e., negative affect and trait anxiety). Significant associations were observed between adverse childhood experiences, health anxiety, and associated constructs. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis indicted that adverse childhood experiences were predictive of health anxiety in adulthood; however, the unique contribution of these experience were no longer significant following the inclusion of the other variables of interest. Subsequently, mediation analyses indicated that both negative affect and trait anxiety independently mediated the relationship between adverse childhood experiences and health anxiety in adulthood. Increased exposure to adverse childhood experiences is associated with higher levels of health anxiety in adulthood; this relationship is mediated through negative affect and trait anxiety. Findings support the long-term negative impact of cumulative adverse childhood experiences and emphasize the importance of addressing negative affect and trait anxiety in efforts to prevent and treat health anxiety. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling hydrological extremes under non-stationary conditions using climate covariates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiliades, Lampros; Galiatsatou, Panagiota; Loukas, Athanasios

2013-04-01

Extreme value theory is a probabilistic theory that can interpret the future probabilities of occurrence of extreme events (e.g. extreme precipitation and streamflow) using past observed records. Traditionally, extreme value theory requires the assumption of temporal stationarity. This assumption implies that the historical patterns of recurrence of extreme events are static over time. However, the hydroclimatic system is nonstationary on time scales that are relevant to extreme value analysis, due to human-mediated and natural environmental change. In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum daily rainfall and streamflow timeseries at selected meteorological and hydrometric stations in Greece and Cyprus. The GEV distribution parameters (location, scale, and shape) are specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN) as proposed by Cannon (2010). The CDN is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. Model parameters are estimated via the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS optimization algorithm, and the appropriate GEV-CDN model architecture for the selected meteorological and hydrometric stations is selected by fitting increasingly complicated models and choosing the one that minimizes the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. For all case studies in Greece and Cyprus different formulations are tested with combinational cases of stationary and nonstationary parameters of the GEV distribution, linear and non-linear architecture of the CDN and combinations of the input climatic covariates. Climatic indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which describes atmospheric circulation in the eastern tropical pacific related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that varies on an interdecadal

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Climate influence on dengue epidemics in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Jury, Mark R

2008-10-01

The variability of the insect-borne disease dengue in Puerto Rico was studied in relation to climatic variables in the period 1979-2005. Annual and monthly reported dengue cases were compared with precipitation and temperature data. Results show that the incidence of dengue in Puerto Rico was relatively constant over time despite global warming, possibly due to the offsetting effects of declining rainfall, improving health care and little change in population. Seasonal fluctuations of dengue were driven by rainfall increases from May to November. Year-to-year variability in dengue cases was positively related to temperature, but only weakly associated with local rainfall and an index of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climatic conditions were mapped with respect to dengue cases and patterns in high and low years were compared. During epidemics, a low pressure system east of Florida draws warm humid air over the northwestern Caribbean. Long-term trends in past observed and future projected rainfall and temperatures were studied. Rainfall has declined slowly, but temperatures in the Caribbean are rising with the influence of global warming. Thus, dengue may increase in the future, and it will be necessary to anticipate dengue epidemics using climate forecasts, to reduce adverse health impacts.

Influence of parental education, childhood adversities, and current living conditions on daily smoking in early adulthood.

PubMed

Kestilä, Laura; Koskinen, Seppo; Martelin, Tuija; Rahkonen, Ossi; Pensola, Tiina; Pirkola, Sami; Patja, Kristiina; Aromaa, Arpo

2006-12-01

To assess the association of parental education, childhood living conditions and adversities with daily smoking in early adulthood and to analyse the effect of the respondent's own education, main economic activity, and current family structure on these associations. The study is based on a representative two-stage cluster sample (N = 1894, participation rate 79%) of young adults aged 18-29, in 2000, in Finland. The outcome measure is daily smoking. Parental smoking and the respondent's own education had the strongest effects on daily smoking. If both parents of the respondent were smokers, then the respondent was most likely to be a smoker too (for men OR (odds ratio) = 3.01, for women OR = 2.41 after all adjustments). Young adults in the lowest educational category had a much higher risk of daily smoking than those in the highest category (OR = 5.88 for women, 4.48 for men). For women parental divorce (OR = 2.31) and current family structure also determined daily smoking. Parental education had a strong gradient in daily smoking and the effect appeared to be mediated largely by the respondent's own educational level. Childhood living conditions are strong determinants of daily smoking. Much of their influence seems to be mediated through current living conditions, which are also determined by childhood conditions. Determinants of smoking behaviour are developed throughout the life course. The findings stress the importance of the respondent's education and parental smoking as determinants of smoking behaviour. Our results support the notion that intervention on smoking initiation and cessation should be considered throughout the life course. Parental involvement in fostering non-smoking would be important.

Nitrogen partitioning in oak leaves depends on species, provenance, climate conditions and soil type.

PubMed

Hu, B; Simon, J; Kuster, T M; Arend, M; Siegwolf, R; Rennenberg, H

2013-01-01

Climate-tolerant tree species and/or provenances have to be selected to ensure the high productivity of managed forests in Central Europe under the prognosticated climate changes. For this purpose, we studied the responses of saplings from three oak species (i.e. Quercus robur, Q. petraea and Q. pubescens) and provenances of different climatic origin (i.e. low or high rainfall, low or high temperature habitats) with regard to leaf nitrogen (N) composition as a measure of N nutrition. Saplings were grown in model ecosystems on either calcareous or acidic soil and subjected to one of four treatments (control, drought, air warming or a combination of drought and air warming). Across species, oak N metabolism responded to the influence of drought and/or air warming with an increase in leaf amino acid N concentration at the expense of structural N. Moreover, provenances or species from drier habitats were more tolerant to the climate conditions applied, as indicated by an increase in amino acid N (comparing species) or soluble protein N (comparing provenances within a species). Furthermore, amino acid N concentrations of oak leaves were significantly higher on calcareous compared to acidic soil. From these results, it can be concluded that seeds from provenances or species originating from drier habitats and - if available - from calcareous soil types may provide a superior seed source for future forest establishment. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

The climate change convention and human health.

PubMed

Rowbotham, E J

1995-01-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at Rio in June 1992, is intended to minimize climate change and its impact. Much of its text is ambiguous and it is not specifically directed to health considerations. It is, however, recognized that adverse effects of climate change on health are a concern of humankind, and health is an integral part of the Convention. The Convention includes commitments by the developed countries to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to increase public awareness of these commitments. The significance of the Convention in these respects is discussed critically and future developments considered.

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions

PubMed Central

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2016-01-01

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems – dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms – are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous

Do climate variables and human density affect Achatina fulica (Bowditch) (Gastropoda: Pulmonata) shell length, total weight and condition factor?

PubMed

Albuquerque, F S; Peso-Aguiar, M C; Assunção-Albuquerque, M J T; Gálvez, L

2009-08-01

The length-weight relationship and condition factor have been broadly investigated in snails to obtain the index of physical condition of populations and evaluate habitat quality. Herein, our goal was to describe the best predictors that explain Achatina fulica biometrical parameters and well being in a recently introduced population. From November 2001 to November 2002, monthly snail samples were collected in Lauro de Freitas City, Bahia, Brazil. Shell length and total weight were measured in the laboratory and the potential curve and condition factor were calculated. Five environmental variables were considered: temperature range, mean temperature, humidity, precipitation and human density. Multiple regressions were used to generate models including multiple predictors, via model selection approach, and then ranked with AIC criteria. Partial regressions were used to obtain the separated coefficients of determination of climate and human density models. A total of 1.460 individuals were collected, presenting a shell length range between 4.8 to 102.5 mm (mean: 42.18 mm). The relationship between total length and total weight revealed that Achatina fulica presented a negative allometric growth. Simple regression indicated that humidity has a significant influence on A. fulica total length and weight. Temperature range was the main variable that influenced the condition factor. Multiple regressions showed that climatic and human variables explain a small proportion of the variance in shell length and total weight, but may explain up to 55.7% of the condition factor variance. Consequently, we believe that the well being and biometric parameters of A. fulica can be influenced by climatic and human density factors.

Beyond Climate and Weather Science: Expanding the Forecasting Family to Serve Societal Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, E. J.

2009-05-01

The ability to "anticipate" the future is what makes information from the Earth sciences valuable to society - whether it is the prediction of severe weather or the future availability of water resources in response to climate change. An improved ability to anticipate or forecast has the potential to serve society by simultaneously improving our ability to (1) promote economic vitality, (2) enable environmental stewardship, (3) protect life and property, as well as (4) improve our fundamental knowledge of the earth system. The potential is enormous, yet many appear ready to move quickly toward specific mitigation and adaptation strategies assuming that the science is settled. Five important weakness must be addressed first: (1) the formation of a true "climate services" function and capability, (2) the deliberate investment in expanding the family of forecasting elements to incorporate a broader array of environmental factors and impacts, (3) the investment in the sciences that connect climate to society, (4) a deliberate focus on the problems associated with scale, in particular the difference between the scale of predictive models and the scale associated with societal decisions, and (5) the evolution from climate services and model predictions to the equivalent of "environmental intelligence centers." The objective is to bring the discipline of forecasting to a broader array of environmental challenges. Assessments of the potential impacts of global climate change on societal sectors such as water, human health, and agriculture provide good examples of this challenge. We have the potential to move from a largely reactive mode in addressing adverse health outcomes, for example, to one in which the ties between climate, land cover, infectious disease vectors, and human health are used to forecast and predict adverse human health conditions. The potential exists for a revolution in forecasting, that entrains a much broader set of societal needs and solutions. The

Building Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Framework for Action

PubMed Central

Simane, Belay; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Mesfin, Desalegn

2012-01-01

Ethiopia has become warmer over the past century and human induced climate change will bring further warming over the next century at unprecedented rates. On the average, climate models show a tendency for higher mean annual rainfall and for wetter conditions, in particular during October, November and December, but there is much uncertainty about the future amount, distribution, timing and intensity of rainfall. Ethiopia’s low level of economic development, combined with its heavy dependence on agriculture and high population growth rate make the country particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. Nearly 90% of Ethiopia’s population lives in the Highlands, which include the critical Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands—a region that holds special importance due to its role in domestic agricultural production and international water resources. A five year study of climate vulnerability and adaptation strategies in communities of Choke Mountain, located in the center of the Abay Highlands, has informed a proposed framework for enhancing climate resilience in communities across the region. The framework is motivated by the critical need to enhance capacity to cope with climate change and, subsequently, to advance a carbon neutral and climate resilient economy in Ethiopia. The implicit hypothesis in applying a research framework for this effort is that science-based information, generated through improved understanding of impacts and vulnerabilities of local communities, can contribute to enhanced resilience strategies. We view adaptation to climate change in a wider context of changes, including, among others, market conditions, the political-institutional framework, and population dynamics. From a livelihood perspective, culture, historical settings, the diversity of income generation strategies, knowledge, and education are important factors that contribute to adaptive capacities. This paper reviews key findings of the Choke Mountain study

Adverse life events and health: a population study in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Karatzias, Thanos; Yan, Elsie; Jowett, Sally

2015-02-01

Although the effects of adverse life events on mental health have been well documented in the literature, there has never been a population based study that investigated systematically the association between history of adverse life events and physical health (objective and subjective) in adults. Cross-sectional, face-to-face household population based survey of adults (18+) in Hong Kong (N=1147). Participants were asked if they had a diagnosis of six health conditions including hypertension, heart disease, arthritis, diabetes, eyesight degeneration, and hearing loss. They were also asked if they had experienced five adverse life events including death of a partner or spouse, abuse, natural disaster, life threatening illness or injury, and family disruption. Interviews also included the Short-Form 12 Health Survey (SFHS-12) and the short version of the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Overall, results indicate that specific adverse life events may be associated with specific health conditions. However, all tested life events were associated with subjective physical and mental health. Death of partner or parent and life threatening illness or injury were found to have the strongest association with physical health problems. A dose-response relationship between adverse life events and physical health in general was evident but more so for heart disease and eyesight degeneration. Considering the high prevalence of traumatic events and how common the conditions associated with such events are in the general population, screening for adverse life events as part of comprehensive assessment will allow a deeper understanding of patients' needs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

The Safe Yield and Climatic Variability: Implications for Groundwater Management.

PubMed

Loáiciga, Hugo A

2017-05-01

Methods for calculating the safe yield are evaluated in this paper using a high-quality and long historical data set of groundwater recharge, discharge, extraction, and precipitation in a karst aquifer. Consideration is given to the role that climatic variability has on the determination of a climatically representative period with which to evaluate the safe yield. The methods employed to estimate the safe yield are consistent with its definition as a long-term average extraction rate that avoids adverse impacts on groundwater. The safe yield is a useful baseline for groundwater planning; yet, it is herein shown that it is not an operational rule that works well under all climatic conditions. This paper shows that due to the nature of dynamic groundwater processes it may be most appropriate to use an adaptive groundwater management strategy that links groundwater extraction rates to groundwater discharge rates, thus achieving a safe yield that represents an estimated long-term sustainable yield. An example of the calculation of the safe yield of the Edwards Aquifer (Texas) demonstrates that it is about one-half of the average annual recharge. © 2016, National Ground Water Association.

Health impacts of climate change and health and social inequalities in the UK.

PubMed

Paavola, Jouni

2017-12-05

This article examines how social and health inequalities shape the health impacts of climate change in the UK, and what the implications are for climate change adaptation and health care provision. The evidence generated by the other articles of the special issue were interpreted using social justice reasoning in light of additional literature, to draw out the key implications of health and social inequalities for health outcomes of climate change. Exposure to heat and cold, air pollution, pollen, food safety risks, disruptions to access to and functioning of health services and facilities, emerging infections and flooding are examined as the key impacts of climate change influencing health outcomes. Age, pre-existing medical conditions and social deprivation are found to be the key (but not only) factors that make people vulnerable and to experience more adverse health outcomes related to climate change impacts. In the future, climate change, aging population and decreasing public spending on health and social care may aggravate inequality of health outcomes related to climate change. Health education and public preparedness measures that take into account differential exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of different groups help address health and social inequalities to do with climate change. Adaptation strategies based on individual preparedness, action and behaviour change may aggravate health and social inequalities due to their selective uptake, unless they are coupled with broad public information campaigns and financial support for undertaking adaptive measures.

Implications of Martian Phyllosilicate Formation Conditions to the Early Climate on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bishop, J. L.; Baker, L.; Fairén, A. G.; Michalski, J. R.; Gago-Duport, L.; Velbel, M. A.; Gross, C.; Rampe, E. B.

2017-12-01

We propose that short-term warmer and wetter environments, occurring sporadically in a generally cold early Mars, enabled formation of phyllosilicate-rich outcrops on the surface of Mars without requiring long-term warm and wet conditions. We are investigating phyllosilicate formation mechanisms including CO2 and H2O budgets to provide constraints on the early martian climate. We have evaluated the nature and stratigraphy of phyllosilicate-bearing surface units on Mars based on i) phyllosilicate-forming environments on Earth, ii) phyllosilicate reactions in the lab, and iii) modeling experiments involving phyllosilicates and short-range ordered (SRO) materials. The type of phyllosilicates that form on Mars depends on temperature, water/rock ratio, acidity, salinity and available ions. Mg-rich trioctahedral smectite mixtures are more consistent with subsurface formation environments (crustal, hydrothermal or alkaline lakes) up to 400 °C and are not associated with martian surface environments. In contrast, clay profiles dominated by dioctahedral Al/Fe-smectites are typically formed in subaqueous or subaerial surface environments. We propose models describing formation of smectite-rich outcrops and laterally extensive vertical profiles of Fe/Mg-smectites, sulfates, and Al-rich clay assemblages formed in surface environments. Further, the presence of abundant SRO materials without phyllosilicates could mark the end of the last warm and wet episode on Mars supporting smectite formation. Climate Implications for Early Mars: Clay formation reactions proceed extremely slowly at cool temperatures. The thick smectite outcrops observed on Mars through remote sensing would require standing water on Mars for hundreds of millions of years if they formed in waters 10-15 °C. However, warmer temperatures could have enabled faster production of these smectite-rich beds. Sporadic warming episodes to 30-40 °C could have enabled formation of these smectites over only tens or

Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability and public health.

PubMed

Haines, A; Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D; Corvalan, C

2006-07-01

It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways, for example as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries may also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing a number of uses of the renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near-term by reducing exposure to air pollution.

Pliocene climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Caballero-Gill, R. P.

2010-01-01

The Pliocene Epoch, 5.3 Ma to 1.8 Ma, was a time when paleoclimate conditions ranged from very warm, equable climates (on a global scale), rhythmically varying every 40,000 years, to high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles that led to the “Ice Ages” of the Pleistocene. Evidence for paleoclimate conditions comes from fossils, geochemical data, and the integration of these data with sophisticated numerical models. The Pliocene exhibited a range in atmospheric CO2 concentrations with highs estimated to be at most ~425 ppm in the early Pliocene followed by overall decrease toward preindustrial levels by the close of the Pliocene Epoch (Pagani et al. 2010). Sea levels were estimated to be 25m higher than present day and the size and position of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were decidedly different from today. On the other hand, by the mid-Pliocene, the majority of fauna and flora as well as continental configurations were basically the same as today. Man’s ability to adapt to or mitigate the effects of future climate require a deep understanding of the rates and magnitude of future climate change on an ever finer scale. Since conditions projected for the end of this century are not in the human experience, we depend upon a combination of numerical climate models and comparison to analogous conditions in the geologic past. The Pliocene contains what might be the closest analog to climate conditions expected in the near future, and therefore understanding the Pliocene is not only of academic interest but essential for human adaptation.

Effect of different home-cooking methods on textural and nutritional properties of sweet potato genotypes grown in temperate climate conditions.

PubMed

Nicoletto, Carlo; Vianello, Fabio; Sambo, Paolo

2018-01-01

The European Union (EU) market for sweet potato is small but is growing considerably and and has increased by 100% over the last 5 years. The cultivation of sweet potato in temperate climate conditions has not considered extensively and could be a new opportunity for the EU market. Healthy and qualitative traits of different sweet potato cultivars grown in temperate climate conditions were evaluated in accordance with four cooking methods. Traditional cultivars showed high hardness and adhesiveness values. The highest concentrations of sugars (especially maltose) and phenolic acids (caffeic and chlorogenic) were found in samples treated by boiling and steaming. High antioxidant activity was found in fried potatoes. Qualitative traits of sweet potatoes treated by microwaves did not report any significant variation compared to the control. Traditional and new sweet potato cultivars can be cultivated in temperate climate conditions and show interesting qualitative properties, especially as a result of the presence of antioxidant compounds. Concerning global quality, colored varieties expressed a better profile than traditional Italian ones and they are suitable for the European market, giving new opportunities for consumers and producers. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate Change, Wildland Fires and Public Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cascio, W. E.

2016-12-01

Climate change is contributing to an increase in the severity of wildland fires. The annual acreage burned in the U.S. has risen steadily since 1985, and the fire season has lengthened. Wildland fires impair air quality by producing massive quantities of particulate air pollutants and ozone precursors. Together particles and ozone exposures increase the risk of premature death and acute and chronic cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity among vulnerable individuals. Future wildfires are predicted to be larger, more severe and more frequent in some regions of the U.S and will contribute to an even greater proportion of the ambient air pollution, the disease burden and healthcare costs.While the projected magnitude of the public health impact of climate change-related wildfire events is uncertain, it is clear that the proportion of the U.S. population vulnerable to the adverse health effects of wildland fire and its smoke is increasing. An aging population with chronic respiratory diseases and increasing obesity and diabetes that heralds more cardiovascular disease will increase the vulnerability of the population to the adverse effects of wildfire smoke and associated stressors. Additionally, physiological changes attendant to aging decrease the capacity of aged-adults to tolerate wildfire smoke, heat, humidity, evacuation and recovery. Expansion of our cities into the wildland-urban interface is also placing a greater proportion of the population in closer proximity to wildland fire emissions with its associated health risks. The public health community has an opportunity to contribute to the broader national effort to mitigate climate change and wildland fire risk by working closely with the healthcare community to facilitate adaptive responses to climate change. Adaptation will increase the resilience of individuals and their communities and is anticipated to help mitigate the adverse health effects of wildland fire. This abstract does not reflect USEPA policy.

Performance analysis of the lineal model for estimating the maximum power of a HCPV module in different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, Eduardo F.; Almonacid, Florencia; Sarmah, Nabin; Mallick, Tapas; Sanchez, Iñigo; Cuadra, Juan M.; Soria-Moya, Alberto; Pérez-Higueras, Pedro

2014-09-01

A model based on easily obtained atmospheric parameters and on a simple lineal mathematical expression has been developed at the Centre of Advanced Studies in Energy and Environment in southern Spain. The model predicts the maximum power of a HCPV module as a function of direct normal irradiance, air temperature and air mass. Presently, the proposed model has only been validated in southern Spain and its performance in locations with different atmospheric conditions still remains unknown. In order to address this issue, several HCPV modules have been measured in two different locations with different climate conditions than the south of Spain: the Environment and Sustainability Institute in southern UK and the National Renewable Energy Center in northern Spain. Results show that the model has an adequate match between actual and estimated data with a RMSE lower than 3.9% at locations with different climate conditions.

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-01-01

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous

Climatic conditions as a risk factor in canine gastric dilatation-volvulus.

PubMed

Dennler, R; Koch, D; Hassig, M; Howard, J; Montavon, P M

2005-01-01

Canine acute gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of multifactorial origin. The risk of developing GDV is influenced by a variety of factors, including breed, age, gender, temperament, diet and management. A relationship between seasonal variations and the frequency of GDV has been previously documented although no association was found with any specific climatic event. Variables in weather conditions within a defined geographic region were investigated in a retrospective study of 287 client-owned dogs diagnosed with GDV between 1992 and 1999. Monthly incidences were evaluated and differences in atmospheric temperature, humidity and pressure between days in which GDV cases were observed and days in which no case was presented were examined. Although temperature was significantly associated with the occurrence of GDV, the difference in temperatures between days with and days without GDV cases was so small that it is unlikely to be of clinical relevance. Moreover, no significant association was found between GDV occurrence and atmospheric pressure or humidity, and a seasonal variation in GDV incidence was not observed.

Practices for Alleviating Heat Stress of Dairy Cows in Humid Continental Climates: A Literature Review.

PubMed

Fournel, Sébastien; Ouellet, Véronique; Charbonneau, Édith

2017-05-02

Heat stress negatively affects the health and performance of dairy cows, resulting in considerable economic losses for the industry. In future years, climate change will exacerbate these losses by making the climate warmer. Physical modification of the environment is considered to be the primary means of reducing adverse effects of hot weather conditions. At present, to reduce stressful heat exposure and to cool cows, dairy farms rely on shade screens and various forms of forced convection and evaporative cooling that may include fans and misters, feed-line sprinklers, and tunnel- or cross-ventilated buildings. However, these systems have been mainly tested in subtropical areas and thus their efficiency in humid continental climates, such as in the province of Québec, Canada, is unclear. Therefore, this study reviewed the available cooling applications and assessed their potential for northern regions. Thermal stress indices such as the temperature-humidity index (THI) were used to evaluate the different cooling strategies.

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Controls of soil hydraulic characteristics on modeling groundwater recharge under different climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tiejun; Franz, Trenton E.; Zlotnik, Vitaly A.

2015-02-01

To meet the challenge of estimating spatially varying groundwater recharge (GR), increasing attention has been given to the use of vadose zone models (VZMs). However, the application of this approach is usually constrained by the lack of field soil hydraulic characteristics (SHCs) required by VZMs. To tackle this issue, SHCs based on the van Genuchten or Brooks-Corey model are generally estimated by pedotransfer functions or taken from texture based class averages. With the increasing use of this method, it is important to elucidate the controls of SHCs on computing GR mostly due to the high nonlinearity of the models. In this study, it is hypothesized that the nonlinear controls of SHCs on computing GR would vary with climatic conditions. To test this hypothesis, a widely used VZM along with two SHCs datasets for sand and loamy sand is used to compute GR at four sites in the continental Unites States with a significant gradient of precipitation (P). The simulation results show that the distribution patterns of mean annual GR ratios (GR ‾ / P ‾ , where GR ‾ and P ‾ are mean annual GR and P, respectively) vary considerably across the sites, largely depending on soil texture and climatic conditions at each site. It is found that GR ‾ / P ‾ is mainly controlled by the shape factor n in the van Genuchten model and the nonlinear effect of n on GR ‾ / P ‾ varies with climatic conditions. Specifically, for both soil textures, the variability in GR ‾ / P ‾ is smallest at the Andrews Forest with the highest P ‾ (191.3 cm/year) and GR ‾ / P ‾ is least sensitive to n; whereas, the variability in GR ‾ / P ‾ at the Konza Prairie (P ‾ = 84.2 cm/year) is the largest and GR ‾ / P ‾ is most sensitive to n. With further decreasing P ‾ , the nonlinear effect of n weakens at the Barta Brothers (P ‾ = 57.3 cm/year) and Sevilleta (P ‾ = 20.3 cm/year), leading to smaller GR ‾ / P ‾ variability at those two sites than at the Konza Prairie. The

Building Resilience against Climate Effects—A Novel Framework to Facilitate Climate Readiness in Public Health Agencies

PubMed Central

Marinucci, Gino D.; Luber, George; Uejio, Christopher K.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy J.

2014-01-01

Climate change is anticipated to have several adverse health impacts. Managing these risks to public health requires an iterative approach. As with many risk management strategies related to climate change, using modeling to project impacts, engaging a wide range of stakeholders, and regularly updating models and risk management plans with new information—hallmarks of adaptive management—are considered central tenets of effective public health adaptation. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a framework, entitled Building Resilience Against Climate Effects, or BRACE, to facilitate this process for public health agencies. Its five steps are laid out here. Following the steps laid out in BRACE will enable an agency to use the best available science to project likely climate change health impacts in a given jurisdiction and prioritize interventions. Adopting BRACE will also reinforce public health’s established commitment to evidence-based practice and institutional learning, both of which will be central to successfully engaging the significant new challenges that climate change presents. PMID:24991665

Under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear?

PubMed

Ye, Jian-Sheng; Pei, Jiu-Ying; Fang, Chao

2018-03-01

Understanding under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear is useful for accurately predicting the response of ecosystem function to global environmental change. Using long-term (2000-2016) net primary productivity (NPP)-precipitation datasets derived from satellite observations, we identify >5600pixels in the North Hemisphere landmass that fit either linear or nonlinear temporal NPP-precipitation relationships. Differences in climate (precipitation, radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, temperature) and soil factors (nitrogen, phosphorous, organic carbon, field capacity) between the linear and nonlinear types are evaluated. Our analysis shows that both linear and nonlinear types exhibit similar interannual precipitation variabilities and occurrences of extreme precipitation. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance suggests that linear and nonlinear types differ significantly regarding to radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, and soil factors. The nonlinear type possesses lower radiation and/or less soil nutrients than the linear type, thereby suggesting that nonlinear type features higher degree of limitation from resources other than precipitation. This study suggests several factors limiting the responses of plant productivity to changes in precipitation, thus causing nonlinear NPP-precipitation pattern. Precipitation manipulation and modeling experiments should combine with changes in other climate and soil factors to better predict the response of plant productivity under future climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.

PubMed

Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A

2015-11-06

Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. © 2015 The Authors.

Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change

PubMed Central

Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A.

2015-01-01

Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. PMID:26577595

Accounts from 19th-century Canadian Arctic explorers' logs reflect present climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, James E.; Wood, Kevin

The widely perceived failure of 19th-century expeditions to find and transit the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic is often attributed to extraordinary cold climatic conditions associated with the “Little Ice Age” evident in proxy records. However, examination of 44 explorers' logs for the western Arctic from 1818 to 1910 reveals that climate indicators such as navigability, the distribution and thickness of annual sea ice, monthly surface air temperature, and the onset of melt and freeze were within the present range of variability.The quest for the Northwest Passage through the Canadian archipelago during the 19th century is frequently seen as a vain and tragic failure. Polar exploration during the Victorian era seems to us today to have been a costly exercise in heroic futility, which in many respects it was. This perspective has been reinforced since the 1970s, when paleoclimate reconstructions based on Arctic ice core stratigraphy appeared to confirm the existence of exceptionally cold conditions consistent with the period glaciologists had termed the “Little Ice Age” (Figure 1a), with temperatures more than one standard deviation colder relative to an early 20th-century mean [Koerner, 1977; Koerner and Fisher, 1990; Overpeck et al., 1998]. In recent years, the view of the Little Ice Age as a synchronous worldwide and prolonged cold epoch that ended with modern warming has been questioned [Bradley and Jones, 1993; Jones and Briffa, 2001 ;Ogilvie, 2001].

Climate conditions and drought assessment with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in Iran: evaluation of CORDEX South Asia climate projections (2070-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senatore, Alfonso; Hejabi, Somayeh; Mendicino, Giuseppe; Bazrafshan, Javad; Irannejad, Parviz

2018-03-01

Climate change projections were evaluated over both the whole Iran and six zones having different precipitation regimes considering the CORDEX South Asia dataset, for assessing space-time distribution of drought occurrences in the future period 2070-2099 under RCP4.5 scenario. Initially, the performances of eight available CORDEX South Asia Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were assessed for the baseline period 1970-2005 through the GPCC v.7 precipitation dataset and the CFSR temperature dataset, which were previously selected as the most reliable within a set of five global datasets compared to 41 available synoptic stations. Though the CCLM RCM driven by the MPI-ESM-LR General Circulation Model is in general the most suitable for temperature and, together with the REMO 2009 RCM also driven by MPI-ESM-LR, for precipitation, their performances do not overwhelm other models for every season and zone in which Iranian territory was divided according to a principal component analysis approach. Hence, a weighting approach was tested and adopted to take into account useful information from every RCM in each of the six zones. The models resulting more reliable compared to current climate show a strong precipitation decrease. Weighted average predicts an overall yearly precipitation decrease of about 20%. Temperature projections provide a mean annual increase of 2.4 °C. Future drought scenarios were depicted by means of the self-calibrating version of the Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) model. Weighted average predicts a sharp drying that can be configured as a real shift in mean climate conditions, drastically affecting water resources of the country.

Adverse drug event-related emergency department visits associated with complex chronic conditions.

PubMed

Feinstein, James A; Feudtner, Chris; Kempe, Allison

2014-06-01

Outpatient adverse drug events (ADEs) can result in serious outcomes requiring emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations. The incidence and severity of ADEs in children with complex chronic conditions (CCCs), who often take multiple medications, is unknown. We sought to describe the characteristics of ADE-related ED visits, including association with CCC status; determine the implicated medications; and determine if CCC status increased the risk of ADE-related admission. Retrospective cohort study of ED visits by patients aged 0 to 18 years using a national sample. ADEs were identified by external cause of injury codes; cases with overdose, wrongful administration, self-harm, or diagnosis of malignancy were excluded. Multivariable logistic regression was used to test outcomes of having an ADE-related ED visit and of subsequent admission. All statistics accounted for the complex survey design. Of 144 million ED visits, 0.5% were associated with ADEs. Adjusting for age, gender, insurance type, day of week, and location of hospital, ADEs were associated with the presence of a CCC (odds ratio 4.76; 95% confidence interval: 4.45-5.10). The implicated medications differed significantly by CCC status. Adjusting for the same variables, ADEs were associated with subsequent inpatient admission (odds ratio 2.18; 95% confidence interval: 2.04-2.32) for all children; an interaction between ADE and CCC status was not significant. ED visits associated with ADEs were more likely to occur for children with CCCs, and the implicated drugs differed, but ADE-related admissions were not differentially affected by CCC status. Copyright © 2014 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

A longitudinal ecological study of seasonal influenza deaths in relation to climate conditions in the United States from 1999 through 2011.

PubMed

Geier, David A; Kern, Janet K; Geier, Mark R

2018-01-01

Introduction: Influenza is an acute respiratory disease with significant annual global morbidity/mortality. Influenza transmission occurs in distinct seasonal patterns suggesting an importance of climate conditions on disease pathogenesis. This hypothesis-testing study evaluated microenvironment conditions within different demographic/geographical groups on seasonal influenza deaths in the United States. Materials and methods: The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wonder online computer interface was utilized to integrate and analyze potential correlations in data generated from 1999 through 2011 for climate conditions of mean daily sunlight (KJ/m 2 ), mean daily maximum air temperature ( o C), mean daily minimum air temperature ( o C), and mean daily precipitation (mm) from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) database and on influenza mortality (ICD-10 codes:J09, J10, or J11) from the Underlying Cause of Death database. Results and discussion: Significant inverse correlations between the climate conditions of temperature, sunlight, and precipitation and seasonal influenza death rate were observed. Similar effects were observed among males and females, but when the data were separated by race and urbanization status significant differences were observed. Conclusion: This study highlights key factors that can help shape public health policy to deal with seasonal influenza in the United States and beyond.

76 FR 30193 - National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy; Notice of Intent: Request for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-24

... principles and science-based practices--for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife... develop a draft Strategy. The adverse impacts of climate change transcend political and administrative... climate change. This Strategy will provide a unified approach--reflecting shared principles and science...

Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semiarid climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoonejans, Jérôme; Vanacker, Veerle; Opfergelt, Sophie; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Christl, Marcus

2016-02-01

Biogeochemical cycling within the Critical Zone depends on the interactions between minerals and fluids controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion rates. In this study, we explore the role of water availability in controlling soil chemical weathering in semiarid climatic conditions. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We combine a geochemical mass balance with 10Be cosmogenic nuclides to constrain chemical weathering intensities and long-term denudation rates. As such, this study presents new data on chemical weathering and 10Be-derived denudation for understudied semiarid climate systems. In the Betic Cordillera, chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (~5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Chemical mass losses are inversely related to denudation rates (14-109 mm/kyr) and positively to soil thickness (14-58 cm); these results are consistent with kinetic limitation of chemical weathering rates. A worldwide compilation of chemical weathering data suggests that soil water balance may regulate the coupling between chemical weathering and physical erosion by modulating soil solute fluxes. Therefore, future landscape evolution models that seek to link chemical weathering and physical erosion should include soil water flux as an essential driver of weathering.

Emerging Forms of Climate Protection Governance: Urban Initiatives in the European Union

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenthal, J. K.; Brunner, E.

2006-12-01

Changes in climate patterns are expected to pose increasing challenges for cities in the following decades, with adverse impacts on urban populations currently stressed by poverty, health and economic inequities. Simultaneously, a strong global trend towards urbanization of poverty exists, with increased challenges for local governments to protect and sustain the well-being of growing cities. In the context of these two overarching trends, interdisciplinary research at the city scale is prioritized for understanding the social impacts of climate change and variability and for the evaluation of strategies in the built environment that might serve as adaptive and mitigative responses to climate change. Urban managers, and transnational networks of municipalities and non-state actors, have taken an increasingly active role in climate protection, through research, policies, programs and agreements on adaptation and mitigation strategies. Concerns for urban impacts of climate change include the potential increase in frequency and intensity of damaging extreme weather events, such as heat waves, hurricanes, heavy rainfall or drought, and coastal flooding and erosion, and potentially adverse impacts on infrastructure, energy systems, and public health. Higher average summertime temperatures in temperate zone cities are also associated with environmental and public health liabilities such as decreased air quality and increased peak electrical demand. We review municipal climate protection programs, generally categorized as approaches based on technological innovation (e.g., new materials); changes in behavior and public education (e.g., use of cooling centers); and improvements in urban design (e.g., zoning for mixed land-use; the use of water, vegetation and plazas to reduce the urban heat island effect). Climate protection initiatives in three European cities are assessed within the context of the global collective efforts enacted by the Kyoto Protocol and United Nations

Adapting Buildings for Indoor Air Quality in a Changing Climate

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change presents many challenges, including the production of severe weather events. These events and efforts to minimize their effects through weatherization can adversely affect indoor environments.

Development of an Empirically-Based Conditional Learning Progression for Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breslyn, Wayne; Drewes, Andrea; McGinnis, J. Randy; Hestness, Emily; Mouza, Chrystalla

2017-01-01

Climate change encompasses a broad and complex set of concepts that is often challenging for students and educators. Using a learning progressions (LPs) knowledge system, we developed a LP that described student learning of climate change. In this exploratory study, we present findings from written assessments of climate change (n = 294) and…

Chapter 3: Climate change and the relevance of historical forest conditions

Treesearch

H.D. Safford; M. North; M.D. Meyer

2012-01-01

Increasing human emissions of greenhouse gases are modifying the Earth's climate. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observation of increases in average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea...

Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

2016-04-01

Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

Do Geriatric Conditions Increase Risk of Adverse Drug Reactions in Ambulatory Elders? Results From the VA GEM Drug Study

PubMed Central

Hanlon, Joseph T.; Sloane, Richard J.; Boscardin, W. John; Schmader, Kenneth E.

2011-01-01

Background. Many clinicians prescribe cautiously to older adults with common geriatric conditions for fear of causing adverse drug reactions (ADRs). However, little is known about the association between these conditions and risk of ADRs. Methods. Using data from the VA Geriatric Evaluation and Management Drug Study, we determined any, preventable, and serious ADRs in 808 elders for 12 months after hospital discharge using a validated process involving patient self-report and chart review adjudicated by two health care professionals. Eight common geriatric conditions (activities of daily living, dementia, incontinence, falls, difficulty ambulating, malnourishment, depression, and prolonged bed rest) were evaluated at study baseline through self-report and structured assessments. We used Poisson regression to model the relationship between these geriatric conditions and ADRs. Results. Participants had a mean of 2.9 ± 1.2 geriatric conditions. Over the 12-month follow-up period, 497 ADRs occurred in 269 participants, including 187 ADRs considered preventable and 127 considered severe. On multivariable analyses, participants with dependency in one or more activities of daily living were less likely to suffer ADRs than those who were fully independent (incidence rate ratio: 0.78, 95% confidence interval = 0.62–1.00). None of the other seven geriatric conditions assessed were associated with ADR risk. Results were similar for preventable and serious ADRs, although participants with a history of falls were more likely to develop serious ADRs (incidence rate ratio: 1.49, 95% confidence interval = 1.00–2.21). Conclusions. Many geriatric conditions were not associated with risk of ADRs. Although it is prudent to prescribe judiciously in patients with these conditions, excessive caution may not be warranted. PMID:21321003

Improving the complementary methods to estimate evapotranspiration under diverse climatic and physical conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anayah, F. M.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

2014-06-01

Reliable estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is important for the purpose of water resources planning and management. Complementary methods, including complementary relationship areal evapotranspiration (CRAE), advection aridity (AA) and Granger and Gray (GG), have been used to estimate ET because these methods are simple and practical in estimating regional ET using meteorological data only. However, prior studies have found limitations in these methods especially in contrasting climates. This study aims to develop a calibration-free universal method using the complementary relationships to compute regional ET in contrasting climatic and physical conditions with meteorological data only. The proposed methodology consists of a systematic sensitivity analysis using the existing complementary methods. This work used 34 global FLUXNET sites where eddy covariance (EC) fluxes of ET are available for validation. A total of 33 alternative model variations from the original complementary methods were proposed. Further analysis using statistical methods and simplified climatic class definitions produced one distinctly improved GG-model-based alternative. The proposed model produced a single-step ET formulation with results equal to or better than the recent studies using data-intensive, classical methods. Average root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute bias (BIAS) and R2 (coefficient of determination) across 34 global sites were 20.57 mm month-1, 10.55 mm month-1 and 0.64, respectively. The proposed model showed a step forward toward predicting ET in large river basins with limited data and requiring no calibration.

Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Narasimha D.; van Ruijven, Bas J.; Riahi, Keywan; Bosetti, Valentina

2017-12-01

As climate change progresses, the risk of adverse impacts on vulnerable populations is growing. As governments seek increased and drastic action, policymakers are likely to seek quantification of climate-change impacts and the consequences of mitigation policies on these populations. Current models used in climate research have a limited ability to represent the poor and vulnerable, or the different dimensions along which they face these risks. Best practices need to be adopted more widely, and new model features that incorporate social heterogeneity and different policy mechanisms need to be developed. Increased collaboration between modellers, economists, and other social scientists could aid these developments.

Prevalence rates of health and welfare conditions in broiler chickens change with weather in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Part, Chérie E; Edwards, Phil; Hajat, Shakoor; Collins, Lisa M

2016-09-01

Climate change impact assessment and adaptation research in agriculture has focused primarily on crop production, with less known about the potential impacts on livestock. We investigated how the prevalence of health and welfare conditions in broiler (meat) chickens changes with weather (temperature, rainfall, air frost) in a temperate climate. Cases of 16 conditions were recorded at approved slaughterhouses in Great Britain. National prevalence rates and distribution mapping were based on data from more than 2.4 billion individuals, collected between January 2011 and December 2013. Analysis of temporal distribution and associations with national weather were based on monthly data from more than 6.8 billion individuals, collected between January 2003 and December 2013. Ascites, bruising/fractures, hepatitis and abnormal colour/fever were most common, at annual average rates of 29.95, 28.00, 23.76 and 22.29 per 10 000, respectively. Ascites and abnormal colour/fever demonstrated clear annual cycles, with higher rates in winter than in summer. Ascites prevalence correlated strongly with maximum temperature at 0 and -1 month lags. Abnormal colour/fever correlated strongly with temperature at 0 lag. Maximum temperatures of approximately 8°C and approximately 19°C marked the turning points of curve in a U-shaped relationship with mortality during transportation and lairage. Future climate change research on broilers should focus on preslaughter mortality.

Prevalence rates of health and welfare conditions in broiler chickens change with weather in a temperate climate

PubMed Central

Edwards, Phil; Hajat, Shakoor

2016-01-01

Climate change impact assessment and adaptation research in agriculture has focused primarily on crop production, with less known about the potential impacts on livestock. We investigated how the prevalence of health and welfare conditions in broiler (meat) chickens changes with weather (temperature, rainfall, air frost) in a temperate climate. Cases of 16 conditions were recorded at approved slaughterhouses in Great Britain. National prevalence rates and distribution mapping were based on data from more than 2.4 billion individuals, collected between January 2011 and December 2013. Analysis of temporal distribution and associations with national weather were based on monthly data from more than 6.8 billion individuals, collected between January 2003 and December 2013. Ascites, bruising/fractures, hepatitis and abnormal colour/fever were most common, at annual average rates of 29.95, 28.00, 23.76 and 22.29 per 10 000, respectively. Ascites and abnormal colour/fever demonstrated clear annual cycles, with higher rates in winter than in summer. Ascites prevalence correlated strongly with maximum temperature at 0 and −1 month lags. Abnormal colour/fever correlated strongly with temperature at 0 lag. Maximum temperatures of approximately 8°C and approximately 19°C marked the turning points of curve in a U-shaped relationship with mortality during transportation and lairage. Future climate change research on broilers should focus on preslaughter mortality. PMID:27703686

Legacy effects of land-use modulate tree growth responses to climate extremes.

PubMed

Mausolf, Katharina; Härdtle, Werner; Jansen, Kirstin; Delory, Benjamin M; Hertel, Dietrich; Leuschner, Christoph; Temperton, Vicky M; von Oheimb, Goddert; Fichtner, Andreas

2018-05-10

Climate change can impact forest ecosystem processes via individual tree and community responses. While the importance of land-use legacies in modulating these processes have been increasingly recognised, evidence of former land-use mediated climate-growth relationships remain rare. We analysed how differences in former land-use (i.e. forest continuity) affect the growth response of European beech to climate extremes. Here, using dendrochronological and fine root data, we show that ancient forests (forests with a long forest continuity) and recent forests (forests afforested on former farmland) clearly differ with regard to climate-growth relationships. We found that sensitivity to climatic extremes was lower for trees growing in ancient forests, as reflected by significantly lower growth reductions during adverse climatic conditions. Fine root morphology also differed significantly between the former land-use types: on average, trees with high specific root length (SRL) and specific root area (SRA) and low root tissue density (RTD) were associated with recent forests, whereas the opposite traits were characteristic of ancient forests. Moreover, we found that trees of ancient forests hold a larger fine root system than trees of recent forests. Our results demonstrate that land-use legacy-mediated modifications in the size and morphology of the fine root system act as a mechanism in regulating drought resistance of beech, emphasising the need to consider the 'ecological memory' of forests when assessing or predicting the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to global environmental change.

Dynamical Downscaling over Siberia: Is there an added value in representing recent climate conditions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klehmet, K.; Rockel, B.

2012-04-01

The analysis of long-term changes and variability of climate variables for the large areal extent of Siberia - covering arctic, subarctic and temperate northern latitudes - is hampered by the sparseness of in-situ observations. To counteract this deficiency we aimed to provide a reconstruction of regional climate for the period 1948-2010 getting homogenous, consistent fields of various terrestrial and atmospheric parameters for Siberia. In order to obtain in addition a higher temporal and spatial resolution than global datasets can provide, we performed the reconstruction using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (climate mode of the limited area model COSMO developed by the German weather service). However, the question arises whether the dynamically downscaled data of reanalysis can improve the representation of recent climate conditions. As global forcing for the initialization and the regional boundaries we use NCEP-1 Reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction since it has the longest temporal data coverage among the reanalysis products. Additionally, spectral nudging is applied to prevent the regional model from deviating from the prescribed large-scale circulation within the whole simulation domain. The area of interest covers a region in Siberia, spanning from the Laptev Sea and Kara Sea to Northern Mongolia and from the West Siberian Lowland to the border of Sea of Okhotsk. The current horizontal resolution is of about 50 km which is planned to be increased to 25 km. To answer the question, we investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation of the model output in comparison to global reanalysis data (NCEP-1, ERA40, ERA-Interim). As reference Russian station data from the "Global Summary of the Day" data set, provided by NCDC, is used. Temperature is analyzed with respect to its climatologically spatial patterns across the model domain and its variability of extremes based on climate indices derived

Concept, Design and Implementation of a climate game within the framework of a climate exhibition in the German Museum for Science and Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, M.; Hasselmann, K.

2002-12-01

In November 2002 a special exhibition on climate issues opened in the German Museum for Science and Techniques ('Deutsches Museum') in Munich. Within this exposition we present an interactive area where visitors should control future climate policy virtually by adopting the role of either the government, a CEO (Chief Executive Officer) of a global company or a typical private household of an industrialized country. All actors endeavor to maintain a sustainable climate in the future (global goal) and in addition pursue their own individual welfare goal. Task of the exhibition visitor is to combine the personal interests of the actor he is adopting with the global goal. The individual goal of government is to stay popular. This is derived from economic production Government also tries to avoid conflicts due to inter-regional inequalities. The CEO seeks to maximize total profits (business earnings) summed over all business sectors (shareholder values). The goal of households is to maximize wages and interest earnings. The evolution of the economic system is governed by the decisions of the actors. Government sets economic side conditions in terms of carbon taxes, subsidies for R&D or market infusion support for climate-friendly technologies, and transfers or subsidizes the transfer of development aid to less advanced regions. The CEO's decisions are: how much to invest in a number of alternative investment options and in which region. Households influences the economy by their purchasing and savings decisions. The model considers four regions, three real actors (mentioned above) and two different goods (climate-adverse and a climate-friendly). We introduce four different kinds of energy (coal, oil/gas, nuclear, renewable). Due to the existence of several goods and trade between regions we need to establish the concept of money and price. This includes a World Bank to handle money flows. At different points in time the actors are motivated to cooperate with other

Thermal comfort in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings in humid subtropical climate zone in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wei; Zhang, Guoqiang

2008-05-01

A thermal comfort field study has been carried out in five cities in the humid subtropical climate zone in China. The survey was performed in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings during the summer season in 2006. There were 229 occupants from 111 buildings who participated in this study and 229 questionnaire responses were collected. Thermal acceptability assessment reveals that the indoor environment in naturally ventilated buildings could not meet the 80% acceptability criteria prescribed by ASHRAE Standard 55, and people tended to feel more comfortable in air-conditioned buildings with the air-conditioned occupants voting with higher acceptability (89%) than the naturally ventilated occupants (58%). The neutral temperatures in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings were 28.3°C and 27.7°C, respectively. The range of accepted temperature in naturally ventilated buildings (25.0˜31.6°C) was wider than that in air-conditioned buildings (25.1˜30.3°C), which suggests that occupants in naturally ventilated buildings seemed to be more tolerant of higher temperatures. Preferred temperatures were 27.9°C and 27.3°C in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings, respectively, both of which were 0.4°C cooler than neutral temperatures. This result suggests that people of hot climates may use words like “slightly cool” to describe their preferred thermal state. The relationship between draught sensation and indoor air velocity at different temperature ranges indicates that indoor air velocity had a significant influence over the occupants’ comfort sensation, and air velocities required by occupants increased with the increasing of operative temperatures. Thus, an effective way of natural ventilation which can create the preferred higher air movement is called for. Finally, the indoor set-point temperature of 26°C or even higher in air-conditioned buildings was confirmed as making people comfortable, which supports the regulation

Bahamians and Climate Change: An Analysis of Risk Perception and Climate Change Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neely, R.; Owens, M. A.

2011-12-01

The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is forecasted to be adversely impacted by the effects of climate change. This presentation will present the results of an assessment of the risk perception toward climate change and climate change literacy among Bahamians. 499 Bahamians from the health care and hospitality industries participated in surveys and/or focus groups and three (3) areas of climate change literacy (attitude, behavior and knowledge) were analyzed as well as risk perception. In general, 1) Bahamians demonstrated an elementary understanding of the underlying causes of climate change, 2) possessed positive attitudes toward adopting new climate change policies, and 3) are already adjusting their behaviors in light of the current predictions. This research also resulted in the development of a model of the relationships between the climate literacy subscales (attitude, behavior and knowledge) and risk perception. This study also examined information sources and their impacts on climate change literacy. As the source of information is important in assessing the quality of the information, participants also identified the source(s) of most of their climate change information. The TV news was cited as the most common source for climate change information among Bahamians. As there is limited active research generating specific climate change information in the Bahamas, all the information Bahamians receive as it pertains to climate change is generated abroad. As a result, Bahamians must decipher through to make sense of it on an individual level. From the focus groups, many of the participants have been able to view possible changes through a cultural lens and are willing to make adjustments to maintain the uniqueness and viability of the Bahamas and to preserve it for generations. Continued study of Bahamians' climate change literacy will inform adaption and mitigation policy as well as individual action.

Do local meteorological conditions influence skin irritation caused by transdermal rivastigmine? A retroprospective, pilot study.

PubMed

Segers, Kurt; Cytryn, Ephraim; Surquin, Murielle

2012-06-01

This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the incidence of transdermal rivastigmine treatment withdrawal secondary to adverse skin reactions among the patients from our Memory Clinic. In addition, we tested whether climatic conditions might have an influence on skin irritations leading to eventual treatment disruption. We performed a retrospective review of patients from the Brugmann University Hospital Memory Clinic having started transdermal rivastigmine between June 2008 and December 2010. Local meteorological data were provided by the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium. A total of 26.9% of the patients experienced adverse skin reactions at the rivastigmine application site, leading to treatment discontinuation in 19.2% of the cases. Rivastigmine cutaneous tolerability was not found to be related to demographic parameters, Mini Mental Status Examination score, or type of dementia. High temperature and low air humidity during the first month of treatment were found to be associated with a higher incidence of skin reactions and secondary treatment disruption. Transdermal rivastigmine induced a higher incidence of cutaneous adverse events than previously reported in a prospective clinical trial. Moreover, it seems that meteorological conditions favoring skin perspiration (high temperature and low air humidity) during the first month of treatment might have an influence on transdermal rivastigmine skin tolerability.

About climate variabilitiy leading the hydric condition of the soil in the rainfed region of Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, V. C.; Penalba, O. C.

2013-05-01

Extreme events of temperature and rainfall have a socio-economic impact in the rainfed agriculture production region in Argentina. The magnitude of the impact can be analyzed through the water balance which integrates the characteristics of the soil and climate conditions. Changes observed in climate variables during the last decades affected the components of the water balance. As a result, a displacement of the agriculture border towards the west was produced, improving the agricultural production of the region. The objective of this work is to analyze how the variability of rainfall and temperature leads the hydric condition of the soil, with special focus on extreme events. The hydric conditions of the soil (HC= Excess- Deficit) were estimated from the monthly water balance (Thornthwaite and Mather method, 1957), using monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) and monthly accumulated rainfall (R) for 33 stations (period 1970-2006). Information of temperature and rainfall was provided by National Weather Service and the effective capacity of soil water was considered from Forte Lay and Spescha (2001). An agricultural extreme condition occurs when soil moisture and rainfall are inadequate or excessive for the development of the crops. In this study, we define an extreme event when the variable is less (greater) than its 20% and 10% (80% and 90%) percentile. In order to evaluate how sensitive is the HC to water and heat stress in the region, different conditional probabilities were evaluated. There is a weaker response of HC to extreme low PET while extreme low R leads high values of HC. However, this behavior is not always observed, especially in the western region where extreme high and low PET show a stronger influence over the HC. Finally, to analyze the temporal variability of extreme PET and R, leading hydric condition of the soil, the number of stations presenting extreme conditions was computed for each month. As an example, interesting results were

Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

Working with invalid boundary conditions: lessons from the field for communicating about climate change with public audiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunther, A.

2015-12-01

There is an ongoing need to communicate with public audiences about climate science, current and projected impacts, the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the requirement to prepare for changes that are likely unavoidable. It is essential that scientists are engaged and active in this effort. Scientists can be more effective communicators about climate change to non-scientific audiences if we recognize that some of the normal "boundary conditions" under which we operate do not need to apply. From how we are trained to how we think about our audience, there are some specific skills and practices that allow us to be more effective communicators. The author will review concepts for making our communication more effective based upon his experience from over 60 presentations about climate change to public audiences. These include expressing how your knowledge makes you feel, anticipating (and accepting) questions unconstrained by physics, respecting beliefs and values while separating them from evidence, and using the history of climate science to provide a compelling narrative. Proper attention to presentation structure (particularly an opening statement), speaking techniques for audience engagement, and effective use of presentation software are also important.

Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: Exploring nonlinearities and thresholds.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; DeWaard, Jack; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia; Ha, Jasmine Trang

2017-01-01

Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts.

Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: Exploring nonlinearities and thresholds

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; DeWaard, Jack; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia; Ha, Jasmine Trang

2016-01-01

Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts. PMID:28435176

Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous western USA

Treesearch

E. Natasha Stavros; John Abatzoglou; Narasimhan K. Larkin; Donald McKenzie; E. Ashley Steel

2014-01-01

Very large wildfires can cause significant economic and environmental damage, including destruction of homes, adverse air quality, firefighting costs and even loss of life. We examine how climate is associated with very large wildland fires (VLWFs >=50 000 acres, or ~20234 ha) in the western contiguous USA. We used composite records of climate and fire to...

Vaccine Adverse Events

MedlinePlus

... use in the primary immunization series in infants Report Adverse Event Report a Vaccine Adverse Event Contact FDA (800) 835- ... back to top Popular Content Home Latest Recalls Report an Adverse Event MedWatch Safety Alerts News Releases ...

Effects of local factors and climate on permafrost conditions and distribution in Beiluhe basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.

PubMed

Yin, Guoan; Niu, Fujun; Lin, Zhanju; Luo, Jing; Liu, Minghao

2017-03-01

Beiluhe basin is underlain by warm and ice-rich permafrost, and covered by vegetation and soils characteristic of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A field monitoring network was established to investigate permafrost conditions and to assess potential impacts of local factors and climate change. This paper describes the spatial variations in permafrost conditions from instrumented boreholes, controlling environmental factors, and recent thermal evolution of permafrost in the basin. The study area was divided into 10 ecotypes using satellite imagery based classification. The field investigations and cluster analysis of ground temperatures indicated that permafrost underlies most of the ground in swamp meadow, undisturbed alpine meadow, degrading alpine meadow, and desert alpine grassland, but is absent in other cover types. Permafrost-ecotope relations examined over a 2-year (2014-2016) period indicated that: (i) ground surface temperatures varied largely among ecotopes; (ii) annual mean ground temperatures ranged from -1.5 to 0°C in permafrost, indicating sensitive permafrost conditions; (iii) active-layer thicknesses ranged from 1.4m to 3.4m; (iv) ground ice content at the top of permafrost is high, but the active-layer soil is relatively dry. Long-term climate warming has driven thermal changes to permafrost, but ground surface characteristics and soil moisture content strongly influence the ground thermal state. These factors control local-scale spatial variations in permafrost conditions. The warm permafrost in the basin is commonly in thermal disequilibrium, and is sensitive to future climate change. Active-layer thicknesses have increased by at least 42cm and the mean annual ground temperatures have increased by up to 0.2°C in the past 10years over the basin. A permafrost distribution map was produced based on ecotypes, suggesting that permafrost underlies 64% of the study region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Complexity Science and the Dynamics of Climate and Communication: Reducing Nursing Home Turnover

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Ruth A.; Corazzini, Kirsten N.; McDaniel, Reuben R., Jr.

2004-01-01

Purpose: Turnover in nursing homes is a widespread problem adversely affecting care quality. Using complexity theory, we tested the effect of administrative climate, communication patterns, and the interaction between the two on turnover, controlling for facility context. Design and Methods: Perceptions of administrative climate and communication…

Response of ice cover on shallow Arctic lakes to contemporary climate conditions: Numerical modeling and remote sensing data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duguay, C.; Surdu, C.; Brown, L.; Samuelsson, P.

2012-04-01

Lake ice cover has been shown to be a robust indicator of climate variability and change. Recent studies have demonstrated that break-up dates, in particular, have been occurring earlier in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years in response to warmer climatic conditions in the winter and spring seasons. The impacts of trends in air temperature and winter precipitation over the last five decades and those projected by global climate models will affect the timing and duration of ice cover (and ice thickness) on Arctic lakes. This will likely, in turn, have an important feedback effect on energy, water, and biogeochemical cycling in various regions of the Arctic. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3-m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in a smaller fraction of lakes that freeze to their bed in winter since thinner ice covers are expected to develop. Shallow lakes of the coastal plain of northern Alaska, and other similar regions of the Arctic, have likely been experiencing changes in seasonal ice thickness (and phenology) over the last few decades but these have not yet been documented. This paper presents results from a numerical lake ice modeling experiment and the analysis of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to elucidate the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA)to climate conditions over the last three decades. New downscaled data specific for the Arctic domain (at a resolution of 0.44 degrees using ERA Interim Reanalysis as boundary condition) produced by the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) was used to force the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) for the period 1979-2010. Output from CLIMo included freeze-up and break-up dates as well as ice thickness on a daily basis. ERS-1/2 data was used to map areas of shallow lakes that freeze to bed and when this happens (timing) in winter for the period 1991

Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

2008-12-01

Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from

Effects of local climate and hydrological conditions on the thermal regime of a reservoir at Tropic of Cancer, in southern China.

PubMed

Wang, Sheng; Qian, Xin; Han, Bo-Ping; Luo, Lian-Cong; Hamilton, David P

2012-05-15

Thermal regime is strongly associated with hydrodynamics in water, and it plays an important role in the dynamics of water quality and ecosystem succession of stratified reservoirs. Changes in both climate and hydrological conditions can modify thermal regimes. Liuxihe Reservoir (23°45'50″N; 113°46'52″E) is a large, stratified and deep reservoir in Guangdong Province, located at the Tropic of Cancer of southern China. The reservoir is a warm monomictic water body with a long period of summer stratification and a short period of mixing in winter. The vertical distribution of suspended particulate material and nutrients are influenced strongly by the thermal structure and the associated flow fields. The hypolimnion becomes anoxic in the stratified period, increasing the release of nutrients from the bottom sediments. Fifty-one years of climate and reservoir operational observations are used here to show the marked changes in local climate and reservoir operational schemes. The data show increasing air temperature and more violent oscillations in inflow volumes in the last decade, while the inter-annual water level fluctuations tend to be more moderate. To quantify the effects of changes in climate and hydrological conditions on thermal structure, we used a numerical simulation model to create scenarios incorporating different air temperatures, inflow volumes, and water levels. The simulations indicate that water column stability, the duration of the mixing period, and surface and outflow temperatures are influenced by both natural factors and by anthropogenic factors such as climate change and reservoir operation schemes. Under continuous warming and more stable storage in recent years, the simulations indicate greater water column stability and increased duration of stratification, while irregular large discharge events may reduce stability and lead to early mixing in autumn. Our results strongly suggest that more attention should be focused on water quality

The Psychological Effects of Climate Change on Children.

PubMed

Burke, Susie E L; Sanson, Ann V; Van Hoorn, Judith

2018-04-11

We review recent evidence on the psychological effects of climate change on children, covering both direct and indirect impacts, and discuss children's psychological adaptation to climate change. Both the direct and flow-on effects of climate change place children at risk of mental health consequences including PTSD, depression, anxiety, phobias, sleep disorders, attachment disorders, and substance abuse. These in turn can lead to problems with emotion regulation, cognition, learning, behavior, language development, and academic performance. Together, these create predispositions to adverse adult mental health outcomes. Children also exhibit high levels of concern over climate change. Meaning-focused coping promotes well-being and environmental engagement. Both direct and indirect climate change impacts affect children's psychological well-being. Children in the developing world will suffer the worst impacts. Mental health professionals have important roles in helping mitigate climate change, and researching and implementing approaches to helping children cope with its impacts.

Sensitivity of salmonid freshwater life history in western US streams to future climate conditions.

PubMed

Beer, W Nicholas; Anderson, James J

2013-08-01

We projected effects of mid-21st century climate on the early life growth of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) in western United States streams. Air temperature and snowpack trends projected from observed 20th century trends were used to predict future seasonal stream temperatures. Fish growth from winter to summer was projected with temperature-dependent models of egg development and juvenile growth. Based on temperature data from 115 sites, by mid-21st century, the effects of climate change are projected to be mixed. Fish in warm-region streams that are currently cooled by snow melt will grow less, and fish in suboptimally cool streams will grow more. Relative to 20th century conditions, by mid-21st century juvenile salmonids' weights are expected to be lower in the Columbia Basin and California Central Valley, but unchanged or greater in coastal and mountain streams. Because fish weight affects fish survival, the predicted changes in weight could impact population fitness depending on other factors such as density effects, food quality and quantity changes, habitat alterations, etc. The level of year-to-year variability in stream temperatures is high and our analysis suggests that identifying effects of climate change over the natural variability will be difficult except in a few streams. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Fernández, Cristina

2015-04-01

The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival

PubMed Central

McMichael, Anthony J.

2012-01-01

Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and survival via weather extremes and climatic impacts on food yields, fresh water, infectious diseases, conflict, and displacement. Paradoxically, these risks to health are neither widely nor fully recognized. Historical experiences of diverse societies experiencing climatic changes, spanning multicentury to single-year duration, provide insights into population health vulnerability—even though most climatic changes were considerably less than those anticipated this century and beyond. Historical experience indicates the following. (i) Long-term climate changes have often destabilized civilizations, typically via food shortages, consequent hunger, disease, and unrest. (ii) Medium-term climatic adversity has frequently caused similar health, social, and sometimes political consequences. (iii) Infectious disease epidemics have often occurred in association with briefer episodes of temperature shifts, food shortages, impoverishment, and social disruption. (iv) Societies have often learnt to cope (despite hardship for some groups) with recurring shorter-term (decadal to multiyear) regional climatic cycles (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation)—except when extreme phases occur. (v) The drought–famine–starvation nexus has been the main, recurring, serious threat to health. Warming this century is not only likely to greatly exceed the Holocene's natural multidecadal temperature fluctuations but to occur faster. Along with greater climatic variability, models project an increased geographic range and severity of droughts. Modern societies, although larger, better resourced, and more interconnected than past societies, are less flexible, more infrastructure-dependent, densely populated, and hence are vulnerable. Adverse historical climate-related health experiences underscore the case for abating human-induced climate change. PMID:22315419

A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

Hydraulics of sub-superficial flow constructed wetlands in semi arid climate conditions.

PubMed

Ranieri, E

2003-01-01

This paper reports the evaluation of the hydraulics of two constructed wetland (cw(s)) plants located in Apulia (the South Eastern Italy region characterized by semi arid climate conditions). These fields were planted with Phragmites australis hydrophytes and are supplied with local secondary wastewater municipal treatment plant effluent. Each plant--Kickuth Root-Zone method based--covers an area of approx. 2,000 m2. The evapotranspiration phenomenon has been evaluated within perforated tubes fixed to the field bottom and very high values--up to 40 mm/d--were found. Hydraulic conductivity has been evaluated by in situ measurements at different field points. Hydraulic gradients and the piezometric curve within the field are also reported.

Early life adversity and telomere length: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ridout, K K; Levandowski, M; Ridout, S J; Gantz, L; Goonan, K; Palermo, D; Price, L H; Tyrka, A R

2018-04-01

Early adversity, in the form of abuse, neglect, socioeconomic status and other adverse experiences, is associated with poor physical and mental health outcomes. To understand the biologic mechanisms underlying these associations, studies have evaluated the relationship between early adversity and telomere length, a marker of cellular senescence. Such results have varied in regard to the size and significance of this relationship. Using meta-analytic techniques, we aimed to clarify the relationship between early adversity and telomere length while exploring factors affecting the association, including adversity type, timing and study design. A comprehensive search in July 2016 of PubMed/MEDLINE, PsycINFO and Web of Science identified 2462 studies. Multiple reviewers appraised studies for inclusion or exclusion using a priori criteria; 3.9% met inclusion criteria. Data were extracted into a structured form; the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale assessed study quality, validity and bias. Forty-one studies (N=30 773) met inclusion criteria. Early adversity and telomere length were significantly associated (Cohen's d effect size=-0.35; 95% CI, -0.46 to -0.24; P<0.0001). Sensitivity analyses revealed no outlier effects. Adversity type and timing significantly impacted the association with telomere length (P<0.0001 and P=0.0025, respectively). Subgroup and meta-regression analyses revealed that medication use, medical or psychiatric conditions, case-control vs longitudinal study design, methodological factors, age and smoking significantly affected the relationship. Comprehensive evaluations of adversity demonstrated more extensive telomere length changes. These results suggest that early adversity may have long-lasting physiological consequences contributing to disease risk and biological aging.

Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

Northern Plains Blizzards in Past and Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trellinger, A.; Kennedy, A. D.

2017-12-01

High-latitude regions of the globe including the northern tier of the United States are subject to adverse conditions during the winter such as snowstorms. When snowfall combines with strong winds, blizzards can result and these events have significant personal, societal, and economic impacts for the Northern Plains. Although the climatology of wintertime extremes such as blizzards is reasonably understood, it is not known how the frequency and intensity of these events may change in a warming climate. Complicating factors include competing trends that suggest winter will have more snow over this region, but over a shorter seasonal duration. Identifying blizzards in climate models is difficult due to the horizontal and vertical grid spacing used. Additionally, blowing snow is not considered in these models, so it cannot be directly diagnosed. Instead, alternative ways must be developed to identify these events. The presented work will use a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to identify meteorological patterns associated with blizzard events over the Northern Plains from 1979-2016. Once these large-scale patterns are identified from observations, they will be identified in Community Climate System Model (CESM) 4.0 20th Century forcing climate simulations run in support for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-5). In specific, the methodology will rely on the `Mother of All Runs' (MOAR) ensemble member. Because this member provides subdaily output for many variables, specific meteorological patterns can be identified. Blizzard events will be identified during historical time periods to determine biases, and then under future emissions scenarios.

Simulation of Deep Water Renewal in Crater Lake, Oregon, USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piccolroaz, S.; Wood, T. M.; Wherry, S.; Girdner, S.

2015-12-01

We applied a 1-dimensional lake model developed to simulate deep mixing related to thermobaric instabilities in temperate lakes to Crater Lake, a 590-m deep caldera lake in Oregon's Cascade Range known for its stunning deep blue color and extremely clear water, in order to determine the frequency of deep water renewal in future climate conditions. The lake model was calibrated with 6 years of water temperature profiles, and then simulated 10 years of validation data with an RMSE ranging from 0.81°C at 50 m depth to 0.04°C at 350-460 m depth. The simulated time series of heat content in the deep lake accurately captured extreme years characterized by weak and strong deep water renewal. The lake model uses wind speed and lake surface temperature (LST) as boundary conditions. LST projections under six climate scenarios from the CMIP5 intermodel comparison project (2 representative concentration pathways X 3 general circulation models) were evaluated with air2water, a simple lumped model that only requires daily values of downscaled air temperature. air2water was calibrated with data from 1993-2011, resulting in a RMSE between simulated and observed daily LST values of 0.68°C. All future climate scenarios project increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deepwater renewal events. The least extreme scenario (CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in the present to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario (HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to be less than 1 in 7 years by 2100 and lake surface temperatures never cooling to less than 4°C after 2050. In all RCP4.5 simulations the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C for increasing periods of time. In the RCP8.5 simulations, the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C year round by the year 2060 (HadGEM2

Effects of future climate conditions on streamflow dynamics in coastal southern California watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J.

2017-12-01

The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export of water is a central theme for the project. In this study, the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model is forced with past measurement-based (1950 to 2005) and future model-based (2006 to 2100) precipitation and temperature to estimate daily streamflow dynamics. The study region is roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The model-based forcings are downscaled to a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. The Priestley and Taylor method is used to estimate potential evapotranspiration based on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites. The HRR model is calibrated for the period 1984 to 2013 using USGS streamflow. Median changes in downscaled precipitation projections from 10 models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) combined with significance testing, suggest that the distribution of precipitation throughout the rainy season will change: decrease at the beginning of the rainy season (Oct-Dec), increase during peak season (Jan-Mar) and decrease at the end (Apr-Jun). Annually, results suggest a slight increase in precipitation. The decrease of rainfall in spring and fall and increase in winter will lead to a shorter (10-15 days, 8-14%), more intense wet season. Both the magnitude and frequency of large storms (>36 mm/day) are likely to increase. Following the precipitation patterns, streamflow in spring and fall is likely to decrease while winter streamflow and annual peak flows are likely to increase due to increased winter precipitation and

Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayar, S.; Sehlinger, A.; Feldmann, H.; Kottmeier, C.

2015-12-01

The impact of soil initialization is investigated through perturbation simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The focus of the investigation is to assess the sensitivity of simulated extreme periods, dry and wet, to soil moisture initialization in different climatic regions over Europe and to establish the necessary spin up time within the framework of decadal predictions for these regions. Sensitivity experiments consisted of a reference simulation from 1968 to 1999 and 5 simulations from 1972 to 1983. The Effective Drought Index (EDI) is used to select and quantify drought status in the reference run to establish the simulation time period for the sensitivity experiments. Different soil initialization procedures are investigated. The sensitivity of the decadal predictions to soil moisture initial conditions is investigated through the analysis of water cycle components' (WCC) variability. In an episodic time scale the local effects of soil moisture on the boundary-layer and the propagated effects on the large-scale dynamics are analysed. The results show: (a) COSMO-CLM reproduces the observed features of the drought index. (b) Soil moisture initialization exerts a relevant impact on WCC, e.g., precipitation distribution and intensity. (c) Regional characteristics strongly impact the response of the WCC. Precipitation and evapotranspiration deviations are larger for humid regions. (d) The initial soil conditions (wet/dry), the regional characteristics (humid/dry) and the annual period (wet/dry) play a key role in the time that soil needs to restore quasi-equilibrium and the impact on the atmospheric conditions. Humid areas, and for all regions, a humid initialization, exhibit shorter spin up times, also soil reacts more sensitive when initialised during dry periods. (e) The initial soil perturbation may markedly modify atmospheric pressure field, wind circulation systems and atmospheric water vapour distribution affecting atmospheric stability

Adversity in Preschool-Aged Children: Effects on Salivary Interleukin-1β

PubMed Central

Tyrka, Audrey R.; Parade, Stephanie H.; Valentine, Thomas R.; Eslinger, Nicole M.; Seifer, Ronald

2016-01-01

Exposure to early life adversity is linked to impaired affective, cognitive, and behavioral functioning and increases risk for various psychiatric and medical conditions. Stress-induced increases in pro-inflammatory cytokines may be a biological mechanism of these effects. Few studies have examined cytokine levels in children experiencing early life adversity, and very little research has investigated cytokines or other markers of inflammation in saliva. In the present study, we examined salivary IL-1β and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels in relation to stress exposure in 40 children aged 3 to 5 years who were enrolled in a larger study of early life adversity. Childhood maltreatment status was assessed via review of child welfare records, and contextual stress exposure, traumatic life event history, and symptoms of psychopathology were assessed via caregiver interviews at a home visit. In a subsequent visit, salivary IL-1β and CRP were obtained before and after participation in four emotion-eliciting tasks. Number of past month contextual stressors, lifetime contextual stressors, and traumatic life events each demonstrated a significant main effect on IL-1β. Baseline IL-1β was positively associated with each of the significant main-effect adversities. Post-challenge IL-1β displayed positive associations with each adversity variable, but were not significant. CRP was not significantly associated with any of the adversity variables. Given evidence suggesting involvement of IL-1β in the neuropathology of psychiatric conditions, these results may have important implications for developmental outcomes. PMID:25997772

Boundary Condition Effects on Hillslope Form and Soil Development Along a Climatic Gradient From Semiarid to Hyperarid in Northern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, J. J.; Dietrich, W. E.; Nishiizumi, K.; Bellugi, D.; Amundson, R.

2008-12-01

Modeling the development of hillslopes using mass balance equations has generated many testable hypotheses related to morphology, process rates, and soil properties, however it is only relatively recently that techniques for constraining these models (such as cosmogenic radionuclides) have become commonplace. As such, many hypotheses related to the effects of boundary conditions or climate on process rates and soil properties have been left untested. We selected pairs of hillslopes along a precipitation gradient in northern Chile (24°-30° S) which were either bounded by actively eroding (bedrock-bedded) channels or by stable or aggradational landforms (pediments, colluvial aprons, valley bottoms). For each hillslope we measured soil properties, atmospheric deposition rates, and bedrock denudation rates. We observe significant changes in soil properties with climate: there is a shift from thick, weathered soils in the semiarid south, to the near absence of soil in the arid middle, to salt-rich soils in the hyperarid north. Coincident with these are dramatic changes in the types and rates of processes acting on the soils. We found relatively quick, biotically-driven soil formation and transport in the south, and very slow, salt-driven processes in the north. Additionally, we observe systematic differences between hillslopes of different boundary condition within the same climate zone, such as thicker soils, gentler slopes, and slower erosion rates on hillslopes with a non-eroding boundary versus an eroding boundary. These support general predictions based on hillslope soil mass balance equations and geomorphic transport laws. Using parameters derived from our field data, we attempt to use a mass balance model of hillslope development to explore the effect of changing boundary conditions and/or shifting climate.

Insurance in a climate of change.

PubMed

Mills, Evan

2005-08-12

Catastrophe insurance provides peace of mind and financial security. Climate change can have adverse impacts on insurance affordability and availability, potentially slowing the growth of the industry and shifting more of the burden to governments and individuals. Most forms of insurance are vulnerable, including property, liability, health, and life. It is incumbent on insurers, their regulators, and the policy community to develop a better grasp of the physical and business risks. Insurers are well positioned to participate in public-private initiatives to monitor loss trends, improve catastrophe modeling, address the causes of climate change, and prepare for and adapt to the impacts.

Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yira, Yacouba; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Steup, Gero; Yaovi Bossa, Aymar

2017-04-01

This study evaluates climate change impacts on water resources using an ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs)-global climate models (GCMs) in the Dano catchment (Burkina Faso). The applied climate datasets were performed in the framework of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) project.

After evaluation of the historical runs of the climate models' ensemble, a statistical bias correction (empirical quantile mapping) was applied to daily precipitation. Temperature and bias corrected precipitation data from the ensemble of RCMs-GCMs was then used as input for the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to simulate water balance components.

The mean hydrological and climate variables for two periods (1971-2000 and 2021-2050) were compared to assess the potential impact of climate change on water resources up to the middle of the 21st century under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results indicate (i) a clear signal of temperature increase of about 0.1 to 2.6 °C for all members of the RCM-GCM ensemble; (ii) high uncertainty about how the catchment precipitation will evolve over the period 2021-2050; (iii) the applied bias correction method only affected the magnitude of the climate change signal; (iv) individual climate models results lead to opposite discharge change signals; and (v) the results for the RCM-GCM ensemble are too uncertain to give any clear direction for future hydrological development. Therefore, potential increase and

Wind conditions on migration influence the annual survival of a neotropical migrant, the western yellow-breasted chat (Icteria virens auricollis).

PubMed

Huang, Andrew C; Bishop, Christine A; McKibbin, René; Drake, Anna; Green, David J

2017-08-10

Long-distance migratory birds in North America have undergone precipitous declines over the past half-century. Although the trend is clear, for many migrating species underpinning the exact causes poses a challenge to conservation due to the numerous stressors that they encounter. Climate conditions during all phases of their annual cycle can have important consequences for their survival. Here, using 15 years of capture-recapture dataset, we determined the effects of various climate factors during the breeding, wintering, and migrating stages on the annual survival of a western yellow-breasted chat (Icteria virens auricollis) population breeding in southwestern Canada. El Niño effects over the entire annual cycle had little influence on the annual apparent survival of yellow-breasted chats. However, we found evidence that wind conditions during migration, specifically average westerly wind speed or the frequency of storm events, had significant adverse effects on adult annual apparent survival. In comparison, precipitation levels on wintering ground had little to no influence on adult annual apparent survival, whereas growing degree days on the breeding ground had moderate but positive effects. In the face of climate change and its predicted impacts on climate processes, understanding the influence of weather conditions on the survival of migrating birds can allow appropriate conservation strategies to be adopted for chats and other declining neotropical migrants.

Arts and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cegnar, T.

2010-09-01

Arts and climate science have more in common points than it appears at first glance. Artistic works can help us to directly or indirectly learn about climatic conditions and weather events in the past, but are also very efficient in raising awareness about climate change nowadays. Long scientific articles get very little response among general public, because most people don't want to read long articles. There is a need to communicate climate change issues more powerfully and more directly, with simple words, pictures, sculptures, installations. Artistic works can inspire people to take concrete action. A number of communication media can fit this purpose. Artists can speak to people on an emotional and intellectual level; they can help people to see things from another perspective and in new ways. Artists can motivate change; they have the freedom to weave facts, opinions, thoughts, emotion and colour all together. Paintings are witnesses of the past climatic conditions. We can learn from paintings, architectural constructions and sculptures about the vegetation, weather events, animals, and way of living. Mentioning only some few examples: old paintings in caves, also Flemish painters are often shown for their winter landscapes, and paintings are very useful to illustrate how fast glaciers are melting. At the end, we shall not forget that dilapidation of art masterpieces often depends on climatic conditions.

Climatic Characteristics of Slovakia in the Years 1971 to 2011 from the Aspect of Pavement Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decky, Martin; Remisova, Eva; Kovalcik, Lubomír; Dibdiakova, Jana; Hajek, Matej

2017-12-01

Contribution follows the previous work of authors in the field of implementation of objectified results of climate change in the design of roads, especially their pavement [1] to [3]. Climate conditions are besides traffic load, one of the permanent external factors adversely affecting the physical and mechanical properties of the construction layers. For designing concrete pavements is used in SR conditions average annual air temperature Tm and frost index for design of asphalt and concrete pavements. As part of the research activities carried out at the workplace, the authors statistically evaluated average daily temperatures of SR meteorological stations covering most of the SR territory with altitude from 115 to 695 m above sea level in the years 1971 to 2011. Act No. 135/1961 Coll. (Road Act) states that the design of road pavements is performed according to valid Slovak technical standards, technical regulations and objectively identified results of research and development for road infrastructure. On the basis of the presented correlations, it can be stated that the presented research results can be used immediately for SR conditions in the design of road pavements.

Hot Climate and Perioperative Outcome in Trauma Patients.

PubMed

Gupta, Bhawna; Gautam, Parshotam Lal; Katyal, Sunil; Gautam, Nikhil

2016-04-01

Extreme hot climatic conditions constitute a major public health threat. Recent studies have shown higher rate of perioperative complications during hot weather. Although a lot of researches have been carried out to evaluate effect of hot climatic conditions and its correlation with other medical conditions, but very little has been studied in trauma patients. To evaluate the impact of hot climatic conditions on perioperative morbidity in trauma patients. We enrolled 100 trauma patients scheduled for surgery after approval by the Hospital and University Ethical Committee. Patients were grouped as Control Group (C) when outdoor temperature ranged in comfortable zone i.e., 20-29(0)C and Study Group (S) when outdoor temperature ranged 40(0)C or more. Patients living in regular air conditioned atmosphere (more than 18 hours per day) and with co-morbid conditions or on drugs interfering with temperature regulation were excluded. Student's t-test, z-test and chi-square tests were used for statistical analysis. Both groups were comparable in terms of demographics, age (control group C=38.2±12.93 years and in group S= 40.14 ± 15.98 years), sex, socioeconomic status and type of surgery. Mean Trauma Index Score (TIS) were 6.20±1.56 and 5.80±1.31 respectively. All patients were of low risk as per Shoe Maker's risk criteria. Post Anaesthesia Care Unit (PACU) stay was similar. Mean duration of hospital stay was 12.16 ± 8.50 days in group C and 10.98 ± 6.90 days in group S (p-value 0.21). 20% patients in group C whereas 54% in group S had complications (p= 0.009). There was a higher incidence of infections as well as respiratory distress in group S. On multiple logistic regression analysis peak environmental temperature was found to be the single independent risk factor for predicting perioperative morbidity. High ambient temperature adversely affects the outcome of surgery even in low risk young trauma patients belonging to American Society of Anaesthesia (ASA) physical