Science.gov

Sample records for affecting global warming

  1. Global Warming?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eichman, Julia Christensen; Brown, Jeff A.

    1994-01-01

    Presents information and data on an experiment designed to test whether different atmosphere compositions are affected by light and temperature during both cooling and heating. Although flawed, the experiment should help students appreciate the difficulties that researchers face when trying to find evidence of global warming. (PR)

  2. Global Warming.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hileman, Bette

    1989-01-01

    States the foundations of the theory of global warming. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the warming trend. Recognizes many sources for the warming and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)

  3. Global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-06-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.

  4. Health in the hot zone - How could global warming affect humans?

    SciTech Connect

    Monastersky, R.

    1996-04-06

    A soon-to-be-released report from the World Health Organization examines the health effects of global warming, calling climate change one of the largest public health challenges for the upcoming century. The issue extends beyond tropical illness: deaths caused directly by heat, dwindling agricultural yields etc. could all affect human health. This article looks at the following health related effects and gives an overview of the scientific information available on each: temperature and mortality; tropical trouble, including vecorborne diseases and increase in susceptable populations; and waterborne problems such as cholera, harmful algal bloomes, food shortages.

  5. Long range global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

    1995-12-31

    This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth`s steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth`s temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic.

  6. Is the distribution of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus ecotypes in the Mediterranean Sea affected by global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mella-Flores, D.; Mazard, S.; Humily, F.; Partensky, F.; Mah, F.; Bariat, L.; Courties, C.; Marie, D.; Ras, J.; Mauriac, R.; Jeanthon, C.; Mahdi Bendif, E.; Ostrowski, M.; Scanlan, D. J.; Garczarek, L.

    2011-09-01

    Biological communities populating the Mediterranean Sea, which is situated at the northern boundary of the subtropics, are often claimed to be particularly affected by global warming. This is indicated, for instance, by the introduction of (sub)tropical species of fish or invertebrates that can displace local species. This raises the question of whether microbial communities are similarly affected, especially in the Levantine basin where sea surface temperatures have significantly risen over the last 25 years (0.50 0.11 C in average per decade, P < 0.01). In this paper, the genetic diversity of the two most abundant members of the phytoplankton community, the picocyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, was examined during two cruises through both eastern and western Mediterranean Sea basins held in September 1999 (PROSOPE cruise) and in June-July 2008 (BOUM cruise). Diversity was studied using dot blot hybridization with clade-specific 16S rRNA oligonucleotide probes and/or clone libraries of the 16S-23S ribosomal DNA Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) region, with a focus on the abundance of clades that may constitute bioindicators of warm waters. During both cruises, the dominant Prochlorococcus clade in the upper mixed layer at all stations was HLI, a clade typical of temperate waters, whereas the HLII clade, the dominant group in (sub)tropical waters, was only present at very low concentrations. The Synechococcus community was dominated by clades I, III and IV in the northwestern waters of the Gulf of Lions and by clade III and groups genetically related to clades WPC1 and VI in the rest of the Mediterranean Sea. In contrast, only a few sequences of clade II, a group typical of warm waters, were observed. These data indicate that local cyanobacterial populations have not yet been displaced by their (sub)tropical counterparts.

  7. Is the distribution of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus ecotypes in the Mediterranean Sea affected by global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mella-Flores, D.; Mazard, S.; Humily, F.; Partensky, F.; Mah, F.; Bariat, L.; Courties, C.; Marie, D.; Ras, J.; Mauriac, R.; Jeanthon, C.; Bendif, E. M.; Ostrowski, M.; Scanlan, D. J.; Garczarek, L.

    2011-05-01

    Biological communities populating the Mediterranean Sea, which is situated at the northern boundary of the subtropics, are often claimed to be particularly affected by global warming. This is indicated, for instance, by the introduction of (sub)tropical species of fish or invertebrates that can displace local species. This raises the question of whether microbial communities are similarly affected, especially in the Levantine basin where sea surface temperatures have risen in recent years. In this paper, the genetic diversity of the two most abundant members of the phytoplankton community, the picocyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, was examined on a transect from the South coast of France to Cyprus in the summer of 2008 (BOUM cruise). Diversity was studied using dot blot hybridization with clade-specific 16S rRNA oligonucleotide probes and clone libraries of the 16S-23S ribosomal DNA Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) region. Data were compared with those obtained during the PROSOPE cruise held almost a decade earlier, with a focus on the abundance of clades that may constitute bioindicators of warm waters. During both cruises, the dominant Prochlorococcus clade in the upper mixed layer at all stations was HLI, a clade typical of temperate waters, whereas the HLII clade, the dominant group in (sub)tropical waters, was only present at very low concentrations. The Synechococcus community was dominated by clades I, III and IV in the northwestern waters of the Gulf of Lions and by clade III and groups genetically related to clades WPC1 and VI in the rest of the Mediterranean Sea. In contrast, only a few sequences of clade II, a group typical of warm waters, were observed. These data indicate that local cyanobacterial populations have not yet been displaced by their (sub)tropical counterparts. This is discussed in the context of the low phosphorus concentrations found in surface waters in the eastern Mediterranean basin, as this may constitute a barrier to the colonization of these waters by alien picocyanobacterial groups.

  8. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity affected by cropping sequence and nitrogen fertilization

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Little information is available about management practice effects on the net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) under dryland cropping systems. We evaluated the effects of cropping sequences (conventional-tillage malt barley [Hordeum vulgaris L.]–fallow [CTB-F], no-ti...

  9. The impact of global warming on floral traits that affect the selfing rate in a high-altitude plant

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Changes in the abiotic environment, as those expected under global warming, can influence plant mating systems through changes in floral traits that affect selfing. Herkogamy (spatial separation of male and female functions within a flower), dichogamy (temporal separation) and total flower number af...

  10. Global Warming And Meltwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bratu, S.

    2012-04-01

    In order to find new approaches and new ideas for my students to appreciate the importance of science in their daily life, I proposed a theme for them to debate. They had to search for global warming information and illustrations in the media, and discuss the articles they found in the classroom. This task inspired them to search for new information about this important and timely theme in science. I informed my students that all the best information about global warming and meltwater they found would be used in a poster that would help us to update the knowledge base of the Physics laboratory. I guided them to choose the most eloquent images and significant information. Searching and working to create this poster, the students arrived to better appreciate the importance of science in their daily life and to critically evaluate scientific information transmitted via the media. In the poster we created, one can find images, photos and diagrams and some interesting information: Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected evolution. In the last 100 years, the Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C for the lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C for the highest predictions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and potentially result in expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing decrease of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Meltwater is the water released by the melting of snow or ice, including glacial ice and ice shelves in the oceans. Meltwater is often found in the ablation zone of glaciers, where the rate of snow cover is reduced. In a report published in June 2007, the United Nations Environment Program estimated that global warming could lead to 40% of the world's population being affected by the loss of glaciers, snow and the associated meltwater in Asia. This is one of many activities of the physics laboratory that the students of our high school are involved in.

  11. Is global warming affecting cave temperatures? Experimental and model data from a paradigmatic case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domínguez-Villar, David; Lojen, Sonja; Krklec, Kristina; Baker, Andy; Fairchild, Ian J.

    2015-08-01

    This research focuses on the mechanisms that transfer the variations in surface atmospheric temperature into caves to evaluate whether they record the warming trend of recent decades. As a study case, we use the data from a hall in Postojna Cave (Slovenia), which was monitored from 2009 to 2013. The low-frequency thermal variability of this cave chamber is dominated by the conduction of heat from the surface through the bedrock. We implemented a thermal conduction model that reproduces low-frequency thermal gradients similar to those measured in the cave. At the 37 m depth of this chamber, the model confirms that the bedrock is already recording the local expression of global warming with a delay of 20-25 years, and predicts a cave warming during the coming decades with a mean rate of 0.015 ± 0.004 C year-1. However, because of the transfer of surface atmosphere thermal variability depends on the duration of the oscillations, the thermal anomalies with periods 7-15 years in duration have delay times <10 years at the studied hall. The inter-annual variability of the surface atmospheric temperature is recorded in this cave hall, although due to the different delay and amplitude attenuation that depends on the duration of the anomalies, the cave temperature signal differs significantly from that at the surface. As the depth of the cave is a major factor in thermal conduction, this is a principal control on whether or not a cave has already recorded the onset of global warming.

  12. Global warming elucidated

    SciTech Connect

    Shen, S.

    1995-03-01

    The meaning of global warming and its relevance to everyday life is explained. Simple thermodynamics is used to predict an oscillatory nature of the change in climate due to global warming. Global warming causes extreme events and bad weather in the near term. In the long term it may cause the earth to transition to another equilibrium state through many oscillation in climatic patterns. The magnitudes of these oscillations could easily exceed the difference between the end points. The author further explains why many no longer fully understands the nature and magnitudes of common phenomena such as storms and wind speeds because of these oscillations, and the absorptive properties of clouds. The author links the increase in duration of the El Nino to global warming, and further predicts public health risks as the earth transitions to another equilibrium state in its young history.

  13. Latitudinal Variation in Carbon Storage Can Help Predict Changes in Swamps Affected by Global Warming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Middleton, Beth A.; McKee, Karen

    2004-01-01

    Plants may offer our best hope of removing greenhouse gases (gases that contribute to global warming) emitted to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. At the same time, global warming could change environments so that natural plant communities will either need to shift into cooler climate zones, or become extirpated (Prasad and Iverson, 1999; Crumpacker and others, 2001; Davis and Shaw, 2001). It is impossible to know the future, but studies combining field observation of production and modeling can help us make predictions about what may happen to these wetland communities in the future. Widespread wetland types such as baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps in the southeastern portion of the United States could be especially good at carbon sequestration (amount of CO2 stored by forests) from the atmosphere. They have high levels of production and sometimes store undecomposed dead plant material in wet conditions with low oxygen, thus keeping gases stored that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere (fig. 1). To study the ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon, our project has taken two approaches. The first analysis looked at published data to develop an idea (hypothesis) of how production levels change across a temperature gradient in the baldcypress region (published data study). The second study tested this idea by comparing production levels across a latitudinal range by using swamps in similar field conditions (ongoing carbon storage study). These studies will help us make predictions about the future ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon in soil and plant biomass, as well as the ability of these forests to shift northward with global warming.

  14. Global warming, bad weather, insurance losses and the global economy

    SciTech Connect

    Low, N.C.; Shen, S.

    1996-09-01

    Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. The impact on the insurance industry is described. Why global warming in the near term causes very bad weather is explained. The continuing trend of very bad weather and the future impact on the insurance industry is explored. How very bad weather can affect the global financial market is explained. Taking a historical view of the development of the modern economy, the authors describe in the near term the impact of global warming on the global economy. The long term impact of global warming on the global economy and the human race is explored. Opportunities presented by global warming are described.

  15. Global warming and infectious disease.

    PubMed

    Khasnis, Atul A; Nettleman, Mary D

    2005-01-01

    Global warming has serious implications for all aspects of human life, including infectious diseases. The effect of global warming depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. From the human standpoint, changes in the environment may trigger human migration, causing disease patterns to shift. Crop failures and famine may reduce host resistance to infections. Disease transmission may be enhanced through the scarcity and contamination of potable water sources. Importantly, significant economic and political stresses may damage the existing public health infrastructure, leaving mankind poorly prepared for unexpected epidemics. Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. Altitudes that are currently too cool to sustain vectors will become more conducive to them. Some vector populations may expand into new geographic areas, whereas others may disappear. Malaria, dengue, plague, and viruses causing encephalitic syndromes are among the many vector-borne diseases likely to be affected. Some models suggest that vector-borne diseases will become more common as the earth warms, although caution is needed in interpreting these predictions. Clearly, global warming will cause changes in the epidemiology of infectious diseases. The ability of mankind to react or adapt is dependent upon the magnitude and speed of the change. The outcome will also depend on our ability to recognize epidemics early, to contain them effectively, to provide appropriate treatment, and to commit resources to prevention and research. PMID:16216650

  16. Global warming on trial

    SciTech Connect

    Broeker, W.S.

    1992-04-01

    Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing.

  17. Model predicts global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wainger, Lisa A.

    Global greenhouse warming will be clearly identifiable by the 1990s, according to eight scientists who have been studying climate changes using computer models. Researchers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, say that by the 2010s, most of the globe will be experiencing “substantial” warming. The level of warming will depend on amounts of trace gases, or greenhouse gases, in the atmosphere.Predictions for the next 70 years are based on computer simulations of Earth's climate. In three runs of the model, James Hansen and his colleagues looked at the effects of changing amounts of atmospheric gases with time.

  18. Is Global Warming Accelerating?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

    2009-12-01

    A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

  19. Global warming from HFC

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, E.

    1998-11-01

    Using a variety of public sources, a computer model of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant emissions in the UK has been developed. This model has been used to estimate and project emissions in 2010 under three types of scenarios: (1) business as usual; (2) voluntary agreements to reduce refrigerant leakage; and (3) comprehensive regulations to reduce refrigerant leakage. This resulting forecast is that UK emissions of HFC refrigerants in 2010 will account for 2% to 4% of the UK`s 1990 baseline global warming contribution.

  20. Global warming challenge

    SciTech Connect

    Hengeveld, H. )

    1994-11-01

    Global warming will necessitate significant adjustments in Canadian society and its economy. In 1979, the Canadian federal government created its Canadian Climate Program (CCP) in collaboration with other agencies, institutions, and individuals. It sought to coordinate national efforts to understand global and regional climate, and to promote better use of the emerging knowledge. Much of the CCP-coordinated research into sources and sinks of greenhouse gases interfaces with other national and international programs. Other researchers have become involved in the Northern Wetlands Study, a cooperative United States-Canada initiative to understand the role of huge northern bogs and muskegs in the carbon cycle. Because of the need to understand how the whole, linked climate system works, climate modeling emerged as a key focus of current research. 35 refs., 4 figs.

  1. A global warning for global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Paepe, R.

    1996-12-31

    The problem of global warming is a complex one not only because it is affecting desert areas such as the Sahel leading to famine disasters of poor rural societies, but because it is an even greater threat to modern well established industrial societies. Global warming is a complex problem of geographical, economical and societal factors together which definitely are biased by local environmental parameters. There is an absolute need to increase the knowledge of such parameters, especially to understand their limits of variance. The greenhouse effect is a global mechanism which means that in changing conditions at one point of the Earth, it will affect all other regions of the globe. Industrial pollution and devastation of the forest are quoted as similar polluting anthropogenic activities in far apart regions of the world with totally different societies and industrial compounds. The other important factor is climatic cyclicity which means that droughts are bound to natural cycles. These natural cycles are numerous as is reflected in the study of geo-proxydata from several sequential geological series on land, ice and deepsea. Each of these cycles reveals a drought cycle which occasionally interfere at the same time. It is believed that the present drought might well be a point of interference between the natural cycles of 2,500 and 1,000 years and the man induced cycle of the last century`s warming up. If the latter is the only cycle involved, man will be able to remediate. If not, global warming will become even more disastrous beyond the 21st century.

  2. Global Warming on Triton

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; Buie, M. W.; Pasachoff, J. M.; Babcock, B. A.; McConnochie, T. H.

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  3. Will global warming affect soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides?

    PubMed

    Dowdall, M; Standring, W; Shaw, G; Strand, P

    2008-11-01

    Recent assessments of global climate/environmental change are reaching a consensus that global climate change is occurring but there is significant uncertainty over the likely magnitude of this change and its impacts. There is little doubt that all aspects of the natural environment will be impacted to some degree. Soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides has long been a significant topic in radioecology, both for the protection of humans and the environment from the effects of ionising radiation. Even after five decades of research considerable uncertainty exists as to the interplay of key environmental processes in controlling soil-plant transfer. As many of these processes are, to a lesser or greater extent, climate-dependent, it can be argued that climate/environmental change will impact soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides and subsequent transfers in specific environments. This discussion attempts to highlight the possible role of climatic and climate-dependent variables in soil-to-plant transfer processes within the overall predictions of climate/environmental change. The work is speculative, and intended to stimulate debate on a theme that radioecology has either ignored or avoided in recent years. PMID:18676067

  4. Global warming - A reduced threat

    SciTech Connect

    Michaels, P.J.; Stooksbury, D.E. )

    1992-10-01

    Issues associated with global warming are analyzed focusing on global and hemispheric temperature histories and trace gas concentrations; artificial warming from urban heat islands; high-latitude and diurnal temperatures; recent climate models; direct effects on vegetation of an increase in carbon dioxide; and compensatory cooling from other industrial products. Data obtained indicate that anthropogenerated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. It is noted that the sulfate emissions are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. The sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies. 61 refs.

  5. Comparison of net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity affected by management practices in two dryland cropping sites

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Little is known about the effect of management practices on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) that account for all sources and sinks of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dryland cropping systems. The objective of this study was to compare the effect of a combinat...

  6. Warm up to the idea: Global warming is here

    SciTech Connect

    Lynch, C.F.

    1996-07-01

    This article summarizes recent information about global warming as well as the history of greenhouse gas emissions which have lead to more and more evidence of global warming. The primary source detailed is the second major study report on global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change. Along with comments about the environmental effects of global warming such as coastline submersion, the economic, social and political aspects of alleviating greenhouse emissions and the threat of global warming are discussed.

  7. Global warming, global research, and global governing

    SciTech Connect

    Preining, O.

    1997-12-31

    The anticipated dangers of Global Warming can be mitigated by reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, especially CO{sub 2}. To reach acceptable, constant levels within the next couple of centuries it might be necessary to accept stabilization levels higher than present ones, The annual CO{sub 2} emissions must be reduced far below today`s values. This is a very important result of the models discussed in the 1995 IPCC report. However, any even very modest scenario for the future must take into account a substantial increase in the world population which might double during the 21st century, There is a considerable emission reduction potential of the industrialized world due to efficiency increase, However, the demand for energy services by the growing world population will, inspite of the availability of alternative energy resources, possibly lead to a net increase in fossil fuel consumption. If the climate models are right, and the science community believes they are, we will experience a global warming of the order of a couple of degrees over the next century; we have to live with it. To be prepared for the future it is essential for us to use new research techniques embracing not only the familiar fields of hard sciences but also social, educational, ethical and economic aspects, We must find a way to build up the essential intellectual capacities needed to deal with these kinds of general problems within all nations and all societies. But this is not Although, we also have to find the necessary dynamical and highly flexible structures for a global governing using tools such as the environmental regime. The first step was the Framework Convention On Climate Change, UN 1992; for resolution of questions regarding implementations the Conference of the Parties was established.

  8. Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aubrecht, Gordon

    2009-04-01

    Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

  9. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    SciTech Connect

    Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

    1992-05-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth`s radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO{sub 2}; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment.

  10. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    SciTech Connect

    Levi, B.G. ); Hafemeister, D. , Washington, DC ); Scribner, R. )

    1992-01-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO{sub 2}; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment.

  11. Global warming: a public health concern.

    PubMed

    Afzal, Brenda M

    2007-05-01

    Over the last 100 years the average temperature on the Earth has risen approximately 1ºFahrenheit (F), increasing at a rate twice as fast as has been noted for any period in the last 1,000 years. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking, glaciers are melting, and the Arctic permafrost is thawing. There is mounting evidence that these global climate changes are already affecting human health. This article provides a brief overview of global warming and climate changes, discusses effects of climate change on health, considers the factors which contribute to climate changes, and reviews individual and collective efforts related to reducing global warming. PMID:21848352

  12. Global warming at the summit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    During the recent summit meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Bill Clinton, the two leaders reaffirmed their concerns about global warming and the need to continue to take actions to try to reduce the threat.In a June 4 joint statement, they stressed the need to develop flexibility mechanisms, including international emissions trading, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They also noted that initiatives to reduce the risk of greenhouse warming, including specific mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, could potentially promote economic growth.

  13. Cosmic Rays and Global Warming

    SciTech Connect

    Sloan, T.; Wolfendale, A. W.

    2008-01-24

    Some workers have claimed that the observed temporal correlations of (low level) terrestrial cloud cover with the cosmic ray intensity changes, due to solar modulation, are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implications would be very great. We have examined this claim in some detail. So far, we have not found any evidence in support and so our conclusions are to doubt it. From the absence of corroborative evidence we estimate that less than 15% at the 95% confidence level, of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 43 years is due to this cause. The origin of the correlation itself is probably the cycle of solar irradiance although there is, as yet, no certainty.

  14. Global warming: Economic policy responses

    SciTech Connect

    Dornbusch, R.; Poterba, J.M.

    1991-01-01

    This volume contains the proceedings of a conference that brought together economic experts from Europe, the US, Latin America, and Japan to evaluate key issues in the policy debate in global warming. The following issues are at the center of debates on alternative policies to address global warming: scientific evidence on the magnitude of global warming and the extent to which it is due to human activities; availability of economic tools to control the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and how vigorously should they be applied; and political economy considerations which influence the design of an international program for controlling greenhouse gases. Many perspectives are offered on the approaches to remedying environmental problems that are currently being pursued in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Deforestation in the Amazon is discussed, as well as ways to slow it. Public finance assessments are presented of both the domestic and international policy issues raised by plans to levy a tax on the carbon emissions from various fossil fuels. Nine chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  15. The Discovery of Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacCracken, Michael C.

    2004-07-01

    At the beginning of the twentieth century, the prospect of ``global warming'' as a result of human activities was thought to be far off, and in any case, likely to be beneficial. As we begin the twenty-first century, science adviser to the British government, Sir David King, has said that he considers global warming to be the world's most important problem, including terrorism. Yet, dealing with it has become the subject of a contentious international protocol, numerous conferences of international diplomats, and major scientific assessments and research programs. Spencer Weart, who is director of the Center for History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics, has taken on the challenge of explaining how this came to be. In the tradition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was established in 1988 to evaluate and assess the state of global warming science, this book is roughly equivalent to the Technical Summary, in terms of its technical level, being quite readable, but with substantive content about the main lines of evidence. Underpinning this relatively concise presentation, there is a well-developed-and still developing-Web site that, like the detailed chapters of the full IPCC assessment reports, provides vastly more information and linkages to a much wider set of reference materials (see http://www.aip.org/history/climate).

  16. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    PubMed

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations. PMID:21372325

  17. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrews, Bill

    1995-01-01

    A resource for teaching about the consequences of global warming. Discusses feedback from the temperature increase, changes in the global precipitation pattern, effects on agriculture, weather extremes, effects on forests, effects on biodiversity, effects on sea levels, and actions which will help the global community cope with global warming. (LZ)

  18. Thermal pollution causes global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nordell, Bo

    2003-09-01

    Over longer time-scales there is no net heat inflow to Earth since incoming solar energy is re-emitted at exactly the same rate. To maintain Earth's thermal equilibrium, however, there must be a net outflow equal to the geothermal heat flow. Performed calculations show that the net heat outflow in 1880 was equal to the geothermal heat flow, which is the only natural net heat source on Earth. Since then, heat dissipation from the global use of nonrenewable energy sources has resulted in additional net heating. In, e.g. Sweden, which is a sparsely populated country, this net heating is about three times greater than the geothermal heat flow. Such thermal pollution contributes to global warming until the global temperature has reached a level where this heat is also emitted to space. Heat dissipation from the global use of fossil fuels and nuclear power is the main source of thermal pollution. Here, it was found that one third of current thermal pollution is emitted to space and that a further global temperature increase of 1.8 C is required until Earth is again in thermal equilibrium.

  19. Integrated assessment of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Ott, K.O.

    1996-12-31

    The anomalies of sea surface temperatures, which show a warming trend since the 1850s through the decade 1960/70 of {Delta}SST {approximately} 0.3 C, are complemented by changes of the ground surface temperature ({Delta}GST). The global surface temperature change, based on these data, allows an integrated assessment of the associated increase in black-body irradiance and a comparison with the enhanced greenhouse-gas back-scattering. Information on the GST history is obtained from unfolding analyses of underground temperature distributions measured in 90 boreholes in Alaskan permafrost and Canadian bedrock. These analyses show GST increases ({Delta}GST) since the 19th century through 1960/70 of 3 C on average, with standard deviations of +1.8 C and {minus}0.9 C on the high and low end respectively. The onset of the warming trend, which is uncertain in the GST data, is timed more accurately by detailed length records of large valley glaciers in the US and the Alps. Evaluation of the heat capacities and heat transfer indicates that the temperature response to an increase in radiative forcing must be much larger on land than on the sea. Conversely, the observed large ratio of {Delta}GST and {Delta}SST can only be explained by increased radiative forcing. From 1960/70 through the warmest decade on record, 1980/90, global {Delta}SST and {Delta}SAT have further increased to 0.6 C and 0.8 C respectively, But, the most recent GST data are not accurate enough to extend the comparison through 1990. Calculation of the increase of radiative forcing from back-scattering of greenhouse gases for 1850 to 1970 yields 1.3 W/cm{sup 2}. The increase in black-body irradiance from 3.6 C warming on land and 0.3 C on sea provides the required balance. The warming on land of 3.6 C is larger than the average value of 3.0 C, but well within the observed range.

  20. Local cooling despite global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girihagama, Lakshika Nilmini Kumari

    How much warmer is the ocean surface than the atmosphere directly above it? Part 1 of the present study offers a means to quantify this temperature difference using a nonlinear one-dimensional global energy balance coupled ocean--atmosphere model ("Aqua Planet"). The significance of our model, which is of intermediate complexity, is its ability to obtain an analytical solution for the global average temperatures. Preliminary results show that, for the present climate, global mean ocean temperature is 291.1 K whereas surface atmospheric temperature is 287.4 K. Thus, the surface ocean is 3.7 K warmer than the atmosphere above it. Temporal perturbation of the global mean solution obtained for "Aqua Planet" showed a stable system. Oscillation amplitude of the atmospheric temperature anomaly is greater in magnitude to those found in the ocean. There is a phase shift (a lag in the ocean), which is caused by oceanic thermal inertia. Climate feedbacks due to selected climate parameters such as incoming radiation, cloud cover, and CO2 are discussed. Warming obtained with our model compares with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) estimations. Application of our model to local regions illuminates the importance of evaporative cooling in determining derived air-sea temperature offsets, where an increase in the latter increases the systems overall sensitivity to evaporative cooling. In part 2, we wish to answer the fairly complicated question of whether global warming and an increased freshwater flux cause Northern Hemispheric warming or cooling. Starting from the assumption of the ocean as the primary source of variability in the Northern hemispheric ocean--atmosphere coupled system, we employed a simple non--linear one--dimensional coupled ocean--atmosphere model similar to the "Aqua Planet" model but with additional advective heat transports. The simplicity of this model allows us to analytically predict the evolution of many dynamical variables of interest such as, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperatures of the ocean and atmosphere, mass transports, salinity, and ocean--atmosphere heat fluxes. Model results show that a reduced AMOC transport due to an increased freshwater flux causes cooling in both the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic (NA) deep--water formation region. Cooling in both the ocean and atmosphere can cause a reduction of the ocean--atmosphere temperature difference, which in turn reduces heat fluxes in both the ocean and atmosphere. For present day climate parameters, the calculated critical freshwater flux needed to arrest AMOC is 0.14 Sv. Assuming a constant atmospheric zonal flow, there is both minimal reduction in the AMOC strength, as well as minimal warming of the ocean and atmosphere. This model provides a conceptual framework for a dynamically sound response of the ocean and atmosphere to AMOC variability as a function of increased freshwater flux. The results are qualitatively consistent with numerous realistic coupled numerical models of varying complexity.

  1. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    PubMed Central

    Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A.

    2010-01-01

    As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology. PMID:20819816

  2. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert; Yoo, Jung-Moon

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA satellites contain small systematic errors. Some of these errors are time-dependent and some are time-independent. Small errors in Ch 2 data of successive satellites arise from calibration differences. Also, successive NOAA satellites tend to have different Local Equatorial Crossing Times (LECT), which introduce differences in Ch 2 data due to the diurnal cycle. These two sources of systematic error are largely time independent. However, because of atmospheric drag, there can be a drift in the LECT of a given satellite, which introduces time-dependent systematic errors. One of these errors is due to the progressive chance in the diurnal cycle and the other is due to associated chances in instrument heating by the sun. In order to infer global temperature trend from the these MSU data, we have eliminated explicitly the time-independent systematic errors. Both of the time-dependent errors cannot be assessed from each satellite. For this reason, their cumulative effect on the global temperature trend is evaluated implicitly. Christy et al. (1998) (CSL). based on their method of analysis of the MSU Ch 2 data, infer a global temperature cooling trend (-0.046 K per decade) from 1979 to 1997, although their near nadir measurements yield near zero trend (0.003 K/decade). Utilising an independent method of analysis, we infer global temperature warmed by 0.12 +/- 0.06 C per decade from the observations of the MSU Ch 2 during the period 1980 to 1997.

  3. Global warming: A Northwest perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, M.J.; Counts, C.A.

    1990-02-01

    The Northwest Power Planning Council convened a symposium in Olympia, Washington, on the subject of global climate change ( the greenhouse effect'') and its potential for affecting the Pacific Northwest. The symposium was organized in response to a need by the Power Council to understand global climate change and its potential impacts on resource planning and fish and wildlife planning for the region, as well as a need to understand national policy developing toward climate change and the Pacific Northwest's role in it. 40 figs., 15 tabs.

  4. Meteorology: hurricanes and global warming.

    PubMed

    Landsea, Christopher W

    2005-12-22

    Anthropogenic climate change has the potential for slightly increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones through warming of sea surface temperatures. Emanuel has shown a striking and surprising association between sea surface temperatures and destructiveness by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and western North Pacific basins. However, I question his analysis on the following grounds: it does not properly represent the observations described; the use of his Atlantic bias-removal scheme may not be warranted; and further investigation of a substantially longer time series for tropical cyclones affecting the continental United States does not show a tendency for increasing destructiveness. These factors indicate that instead of "unprecedented" tropical cyclone activity having occurred in recent years, hurricane intensity was equal or even greater during the last active period in the mid-twentieth century. PMID:16371953

  5. Global warming, insurance losses and financial industry

    SciTech Connect

    Low, N.C.

    1996-12-31

    Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. They have already caught the attention of the insurance industry, as they suffered massive losses in the last decade. Twenty-one out of the 25 largest catastrophes in the US, mainly in the form of hurricanes have occurred in the last decade. The insurance industry has reacted by taking the risk of global warming in decisions as to pricing and underwriting decisions. But they have yet to take a more active role in regulating the factors that contributes to global warming. How global warming can impact the financial industry and the modern economy is explored. Insurance and modern financial derivatives are key to the efficient functioning of the modern economy, without which the global economy can still function but will take a giant step backward. Any risk as global warming that causes economic surprises will hamper the efficient working of the financial market and the modern economy.

  6. Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.

    PubMed

    Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban

    2013-01-01

    The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective. PMID:22695877

  7. Exploring the Sociopolitical Dimensions of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sadler, Troy D.; Klosterman, Michelle L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present an activity to help high school students conceptualize the sociopolitical complexity of global warming through an exploration of varied perspectives on the issue. They argue that socioscientific issues such as global warming present important contexts for learning science and that the social and political dimensions of these…

  8. Global Warming: Lessons from Ozone Depletion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobson, Art

    2010-01-01

    My teaching and textbook have always covered many physics-related social issues, including stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. The ozone saga is an inspiring good-news story that's instructive for solving the similar but bigger problem of global warming. Thus, as soon as students in my physics literacy course at the University of…

  9. Global Warming: How Much and Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lanouette, William

    1990-01-01

    Summarizes the history of the study of global warming and includes a discussion of the role of gases, like carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). Discusses modern research on the global warming, including computer modelling and the super-greenhouse effect. (YP)

  10. Global Warming: Lessons from Ozone Depletion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobson, Art

    2010-01-01

    My teaching and textbook have always covered many physics-related social issues, including stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. The ozone saga is an inspiring good-news story that's instructive for solving the similar but bigger problem of global warming. Thus, as soon as students in my physics literacy course at the University of

  11. Exploring the Sociopolitical Dimensions of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sadler, Troy D.; Klosterman, Michelle L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present an activity to help high school students conceptualize the sociopolitical complexity of global warming through an exploration of varied perspectives on the issue. They argue that socioscientific issues such as global warming present important contexts for learning science and that the social and political dimensions of these

  12. Turkish Students' Ideas about Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kilinc, Ahmet; Stanisstreet, Martin; Boyes, Edward

    2008-01-01

    A questionnaire was used to explore the prevalence of ideas about global warming in Year 10 (age 15-16 years) school students in Turkey. The frequencies of individual scientific ideas and misconceptions about the causes, consequences and "cures" of global warming were identified. In addition, several general findings emerged from this study.…

  13. Global warming: The complete briefing

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, J.

    1994-12-31

    John Houghton has drawn on the exhaustive efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce a notably compact, impeccably complete and authoritative, meticulously balanced, and lucidly presented guide to the complex yet vital issue of global warming. Its subtitle is not mere hyperbole: this truly is a complete briefing. Certainly, one could not ask for a more authoritative brief: Houghton has led an imposing series of national and international efforts relating to climate, including the most recent scientific assessments of the IPCC. Citing many concrete examples, Houghton begins by convincing that climate truly is important to humankind and that climate is far from constant. He then elucidates the mechanisms that maintain the benign climate of our planet, providing in the process, for example, the most accurate explanation of the natural greenhouse effect that has yet appeared in print. He then treats the individual greenhouse gases responsible for maintaining the earth`s warmth and presents projections of their probable future concentrations as influenced by human activities. Further chapters deal with conclusions drawn from climate models, estimates of the impacts on human activities, and possible policies and actions to mitigate or alleviate the changes and their consequences.

  14. Global warming and reproductive health.

    PubMed

    Potts, Malcolm; Henderson, Courtney E

    2012-10-01

    The largest absolute numbers of maternal deaths occur among the 40-50 million women who deliver annually without a skilled birth attendant. Most of these deaths occur in countries with a total fertility rate of greater than 4. The combination of global warming and rapid population growth in the Sahel and parts of the Middle East poses a serious threat to reproductive health and to food security. Poverty, lack of resources, and rapid population growth make it unlikely that most women in these countries will have access to skilled birth attendants or emergency obstetric care in the foreseeable future. Three strategies can be implemented to improve women's health and reproductive rights in high-fertility, low-resource settings: (1) make family planning accessible and remove non-evidenced-based barriers to contraception; (2) scale up community distribution of misoprostol for prevention of postpartum hemorrhage and, where it is legal, for medical abortion; and (3) eliminate child marriage and invest in girls and young women, thereby reducing early childbearing. PMID:22883918

  15. Some economics of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Schelling, T.C. )

    1992-03-01

    The greenhouse effect itself is simple enough to understand and is not in any real dispute. What is in dispute is its magnitude over the coming century, its translation into changes in climates around the globe, and the impacts of those climate changes on human welfare and the natural environment. These are beyond the professional understanding of any single person. The sciences involved are too numerous and diverse. Demography, economics, biology, and the technology sciences are needed to project emissions; atmospheric chemistry, oceanography, biology, and meteorology are needed to translate emissions into climates; biology, agronomy, health sciences, economics, sociology, and glaciology are needed to identify and assess impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems. And those are not all. There are expert judgments on large pieces of the subject, but no single person clothed in this panoply of disciplines has shown up or is likely to. This article makes an attempt to forecast the economic and social consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and attempting to prevent it.

  16. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  17. Global warming and nuclear power

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, L., LLNL

    1998-07-10

    Nuclear fission power reactors represent a potential solution to many aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth`s atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high-grade heat for large-scale electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-energizing around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates; importantly, electricity production costs from the best nuclear plants presently are closely comparable with those of the best fossil-fired plants. However, a substantial number of issues currently stand between nuclear power and widespread substitution for large stationary fossil fuel-fired systems. These include perceptual ones regarding both long-term and acute operational safety, plant decommissioning, fuel reprocessing, radwaste disposal, fissile materials diversion to military purposes and - perhaps most seriously- readily quantifiable concerns regarding long-term fuel supply and total unit electrical energy cost. We sketch a road-map for proceeding from the present situation toward a nuclear power-intensive world, addressing along the way each of the concerns which presently impede widespread nuclear substitution for fossil fuels, particularly for coal in the most populous and rapidly developing portions of the world, e.g., China and India. This `design to societal specifications` approach to large-scale nuclear fission power systems may lead to energy sources meeting essentially all stationary demands for high-temperature heat. Such advanced options offer a human population of ten billion the electricity supply levels currently enjoyed by Americans for 10,000 years. Nuclear power systems tailored to local needs-and-interests and having a common advanced technology base could reduce present-day world-wide C0{sub 2} emissions by two-fold, if universally employed. By application to small mobile demands, a second two-fold reduction might be attained. Even the first such halving of carbon intensivity of stationary-source energy production world-wide might permit continued slow power-demand growth in the highly developed countries and rapid development of the other 80% of the world, both without active governmental suppression of fossil fuel usage - while also stabilizing carbon input-rates into the Earth`s atmosphere. The second two-fold reduction might obviate most global warming concerns.

  18. Can Global Warming be Stopped?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luria, M.

    2013-12-01

    Earlier this year, the CO2 levels exceeded the 400 ppm level and there is no sign that the 1-2 ppm annual increase is going to slow down. Concerns regarding the danger of global warming have been reported in numerous occasions for more than a generation, ever since CO2 levels reached the 350 ppm range in the mid 1980's. Nevertheless, all efforts to slow down the increase have showed little if any effect. Mobile sources, including surface and marine transportation and aviation, consist of 20% of the global CO2 emission. The only realistic way to reduce the mobile sources' CO2 signature is by improved fuel efficiency. However, any progress in this direction is more than compensated by continuous increased demand. Stationary sources, mostly electric power generation, are responsible for the bulk of the global CO2 emission. The measurements have shown, that the effect of an increase in renewable sources, like solar wind and geothermal, combined with conversion from coal to natural gas where possible, conservation and efficiency improvement, did not compensate the increased demand mostly in developing countries. Increased usage of nuclear energy can provide some relief in carbon emission but has the potential of even greater environmental hazard. A major decrease in carbon emission can be obtained by either significant reduction in the cost of non-carbon based energy sources or by of carbon sequestration. The most economical way to make a significant decrease in carbon emission is to apply carbon sequestration technology at large point sources that use coal. Worldwide there are about 10,000 major sources that burn >7 billion metric tons of coal which generate the equivalent of 30 trillion kwh. There is a limited experience in CO2 sequestration of such huge quantities of CO2, however, it is estimated that the cost would be US$ 0.01-0.1 per kwh. The cost of eliminating this quantity can be estimated at an average of 1.5 trillion dollars annually. The major emitters, US, China and India are expected pay the bulk of it. While the larger nations spend this kind of money on defense, it is highly unlikely that they will do so for an environmental cause. Controlling the rest of CO2 emissions such as agricultural waste and medium to small sources is either much more expensive or even technologically impossible. The discussion so far did not include other green house gases (GHG) such as methane, ozone, nitrous oxide and hydro-chloro-fluoro-carbons that are much more difficult to control. In conclusion, it will take trillions of US dollars to significantly decrease GHG emissions and the effect will only be seen tens of years in the future. It is more reasonable to invest a fraction of these resources in preparation for the inevitable effects of the forthcoming climate change. Investments in coastal line protection, better flood control in low elevation water basins and in water desalination in arid areas may are some of the actions that may give a much better return.

  19. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrews, Bill

    1994-01-01

    A resource for the teaching of the history and causes of climate change. Discusses evidence of climate change from the Viking era, early ice ages, the most recent ice age, natural causes of climate change, human-made causes of climate change, projections of global warming, and unequal warming. (LZ)

  20. Is global warming harmful to health?

    PubMed

    Epstein, P R

    2000-08-01

    Projections from computer models predict that global warming will expand the incidence and distribution of many serious medical disorders. Global warming, aside from indirectly causing death by drowning or starvation, promotes by various means the emergence, resurgence, and spread of infectious diseases. This article addresses the health effects of global warming and disrupted climate patterns in detail. Among the greatest health concerns are diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, and several kinds of encephalitis. Such disorders are projected to become increasingly prevalent because their insect carriers are very sensitive to meteorological conditions. In addition, floods and droughts resulting from global warming can each help trigger outbreaks by creating breeding grounds for insects whose desiccated eggs remain viable and hatch in still water. Other effects of global warming on health include the growth of opportunist populations and the increase of the incidence of waterborne diseases because of lack of clean water. In view of this, several steps are cited in order to facilitate the successful management of the dangers of global warming. PMID:10914399

  1. Televised news coverage of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Nitz, M.; Jarvis, S.; Kenski, H.

    1996-12-31

    Citizens are expressing increased concern over the number and variety of environmental problems. Global warming in particular is a focus of concern for scientists and environmental groups. Such concern should naturally motivate individuals to seek information about these topics. Many people turn to the media, most usually television, for information on the nature of these problems. Consequently, this paper studied media coverage of environmental issues, specifically global warming. Television coverage was examined for: (1) the general nature of coverage, (2) biases in coverage, (3) visual images used to cover global warming, and (4) the congruity between visual and verbal messages in newscasts. Nightly newscasts from the three major American television networks were analyzed from 1993--1995 to determine the overall nature of global warming coverage since the Earth Summit in 1992. Results indicated that television news suffers from some serious inadequacies in its portrayal of global warming issues. The paper concludes by first discussing how its results intertwine with other work in the global warming and mass media field. Finally, the implications of inadequacies in media coverage for policy-makers when it comes to sound management of critical resources in this area are also discussed.

  2. Infrared warming affects intrarow soil carbon dioxide efflux during early vegetative growth of spring wheat

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global warming will likely affect carbon cycles in agricultural soils. Our objective was to deploy infrared (IR) warming to characterize the effect of global warming on soil temperature (Ts), volumetric soil-water content ('s), and intrarow soil CO2 efflux (Fs) of an open-field spring wheat (Triticu...

  3. Hydrological consequences of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, Norman L.

    2009-06-01

    The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is strong evidence that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide far exceeds the natural range over the last 650,000 years, and this recent warming of the climate system is unequivocal, resulting in more frequent extreme precipitation events, earlier snowmelt runoff, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. The effects of recent warming has been well documented and climate model projections indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99 percent) of occurring with significant to severe consequences in response to a warmer lower atmosphere with an accelerating hydrologic cycle.

  4. Global warming: Science or politics. Part 1

    SciTech Connect

    Dorweiler, V.P.

    1998-04-01

    ``The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a discernible influence of human activity on global climate`` is a statement employed as the foundation basis to intervene on behalf of the globe and the future. That statement, as scientific evidence of human-produced greenhouse gases (primarily CO{sub 2}) having a warming effect on global climate is a political statement only. Further, the Kyoto conference to consider intervention in human activities regarding global warming was a political conference. Political and treaty issues were the focus; scientific issues were not much discussed. What change is needed then to scientifically determine global warming and to ascertain whether human activity is involved? A better understanding of the natural climate variations related to solar variation can improve understanding of an anthropogenic greenhouse effect on the climate. The purpose of this article is to pose the scientific question. Part 2 will present an answer.

  5. Some coolness concerning global warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lindzen, Richard S.

    1990-01-01

    The greenhouse effect hypothesis is discussed. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere on global temperature changes are analyzed. The problems with models currently used to predict climatic changes are examined.

  6. Perihelion precession, polar ice and global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steel, Duncan

    2013-03-01

    The increase in mean global temperature over the past 150 years is generally ascribed to human activities, in particular the rises in the atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution began. Whilst it is thought that ice ages and interglacial periods are mainly initiated by multi-millennial variations in Earth's heliocentric orbit and obliquity, shorter-term orbital variations and consequent observable climatic effects over decadal/centurial timescales have not been considered significant causes of contemporary climate change compared to anthropogenic influences. Here it is shown that the precession of perihelion occurring over a century substantially affects the intra-annual variation of solar radiation influx at different locations, especially higher latitudes, with northern and southern hemispheres being subject to contrasting insolation changes. This north/south asymmetry has grown since perihelion was aligned with the winter solstice seven to eight centuries ago, and must cause enhanced year-on-year springtime melting of Arctic (but not Antarctic) ice and therefore feedback warming because increasing amounts of land and open sea are denuded of high-albedo ice and snow across boreal summer and into autumn. The accelerating sequence of insolation change now occurring as perihelion moves further into boreal winter has not occurred previously during the Holocene and so would not have been observed before by past or present civilisations. Reasons are given for the significance of this process having been overlooked until now. This mechanism represents a supplementary - natural - contribution to climate change in the present epoch and may even be the dominant fundamental cause of global warming, although anthropogenic effects surely play a role too.

  7. Communicating the Dangers of Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, J. E.

    2006-12-01

    So far, in my opinion, we scientists have not done a good job of communicating the imminent threat posed by global warming, yet I believe there is still time for that if we work efficiently now to overcome existing obstacles. Several of those obstacles are illustrated by contrasting the roles of scientists, the media, special interests, politicians and the public in the ozone depletion and global warming crises. Scientists in America are further challenged by a decline in public science education, a perceived gap between science and religion, increasing politicization of public affairs offices in the government, and accumulation of power by a unitary executive. First order communication tasks are illustrated by a need for improved exchange and understanding, among scientists as well as with the public, of fundamental climate facts: (1) additional global warming exceeding 1C will yield large climate effects, (2) paleoclimate changes contain quantitatively specific information about climate sensitivity that is not widely appreciated, (3) carbon cycle facts, such as the substantial portion of carbon dioxide emissions that will remain in the air "forever", for practical purposes, (4) fossil fuel facts such as the dominant role of coal and unconventional fuels in all business-as-usual scenarios for future energy sources. The facts graphically illustrate the need for prompt actions to avoid disastrous climate change, yet they also reveal the feasibility of a course that minimizes global warming and yields other benefits. Perhaps the greatest challenge is posed by an inappropriate casting of the topic as a dichotomy between those who deny that there is a global warming problem and those who either are exceedingly pessimistic about the prospects for minimizing climate change or believe that solutions would be very expensive. Sensible evaluation of the situation, in my opinion, suggests a strategy for dealing with global warming that is not costly and has many subsidiary benefits, but it does require leadership. Practical difficulties in communicating this story will be illustrated with some personal experiences.

  8. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert, Jr.

    1999-01-01

    In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

  9. Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Jiquan; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Luo, Yiqi; Wan, Shiqiang

    2014-03-01

    Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30° and 90° N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research.

  10. Beyond global warming: Ecology and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Vitousek, P.M. )

    1994-10-01

    While ecologists involved in management or policy often are advised to learn to deal with uncertainty, some components of global environmental change are certainly occurring and are certainly human-caused. All have important ecological consequences. Well-documented global changes include: Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; alterations in the biogeochemistry of the global nitrogen cycle; and ongoing land use/land cover change. Human activity - now primarily fossil fuel combustion - has increased carbon dioxide concentrations from [approximately] 280 to 355 [mu]L/L since 1800 and is likely to have climatic consequences and direct effects on biota in all terrestrial ecosystems. The global nitrogen cycle has been altered so that more nitrogen is fixed annually by humanity than by all natural pathways combined. Altering atmospheric chemistry and aquatic ecosystems, contributes to eutrophication of the biosphere, and has substantial regional effects on biological diversity. Finally, human land use/land cover change has transformed one-third to one-half of Earth's ice-free surface, representing the most important component of global change now. Any clear dichotomy between pristine ecosystems and human-altered areas that may have existed in the past has vanished, and ecological research should account for this reality. Certain components of global environmental change are the primary causes of anticipated changes in climate, and of ongoing losses of biological diversity. They are caused by the extraordinary growth in size and resource use of the human population. On a broad scale, there is little uncertainty about any of these components of change or their causes. However, much of the public believes the causes of global change to be uncertain and contentious. By speaking out effectively,the focus of public discussion towards what can and should be done about global environmental change can be shifted. 135 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Resource Letter GW-2: Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Schneider, Stephen H.

    2008-07-01

    This Resource Letter provides a guide to the literature on human-induced climate change, also known as global warming [Resource Letter GW-1: Global Warming, John W. Firor, Am. J. Phys. 62, 490-495 (1994)]. After an introductory overview, journal articles, books, and websites are cited for the following topics: the greenhouse effect and radiative forcing, detection and attribution of human-induced climate change, carbon cycle feedbacks, paleoclimate, climate models and modeling uncertainties, projections of future climate change and climate impacts, and mitigation and adaptation policy options.

  12. Global warming -- Science and anti-science

    SciTech Connect

    Preining, O. |

    1995-06-01

    The global warming debate has sparked many facts activities in almost all sectors of human endeavors. There are the hard facts, the measurements of the greenhouse gases, the statistics of human activities responsible for emissions, the demographic figures. There are the soft facts, the interpretations of the hard facts requiring additional assumptions. There are the media, the press, television, for whom environmental problems make good stories, these can be used to rise emotions, to make heroes and antiheroes. There are politicians, the global warming debate can be used even in electron campaigns. Global warming is a topic within and beyond science. The judgment (and hence use) of scientific facts is overwhelmingly influenced by the ``Weltbild`` (underlying beliefs how the world operates), and consequently opposing positions of well-known scientists arise. There are the attempts to invent futures of man on Earth: policies, regulations, laws on nation, international, and global levels shall facilitate a change in the basic behavior of all men. The global warming issue has many facets and cannot be successfully discussed without including, e.g., the North-South dialogue, world population, etc.

  13. Are we seeing global warming?

    SciTech Connect

    Hasselmann, K.

    1997-05-09

    Despite considerable progress, the question of whether the observed gradual increase in global mean temperature over the last century is indeed caused by human activities or is simply an expression of natural climate variation on a larger spatial and temporal scales remains a controversial issue. To answer this question three things are needed: prediction of the anthropogenic climate change signal; determination of the natural climate variability noise; and computation of the signal-to-noise ratio and test of whether the ratio exceeds some predefined statistical detection threshold. This article discusses all these issues and the uncertainties involved in getting definitive answers. 12 refs., 1 fig.

  14. Future Global Cryosphere: Impacts of Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gan, T. Y.; Barry, R. G.

    2014-12-01

    In recent years, the Earth is undergoing potentially rapid changes in all cryospheric components, including Arctic sea ice shrinkage, mountain glacier recession, thawing permafrost, diminishing snow cover, and accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet. This has significant implications for global climate, hydrology, water resources, and global sea level. Physical evidences of changes observed in the cryosphere are: (a) Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes in high latitudes of N. H. decreased by about two weeks over the 20th Century; (b) Significant retreat of glaciers world wide during the 20th Century; (c) Thinning of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness by about 40% in late summer in recent decades, with the minimum sea ice concentration mapped by the SSM/I sensor of NASA in 2007; (d) Snow cover decreased in area by about 10% since global observations by satellites began in the late 1960s, in various places of the Northern Hemisphere; (e) In North America, snow water equivalent decreased by about 10mm since observations by passive microwave sensors began in the late 1970s; (f) Degradations of permafrost have been detected in some parts of the polar and sub-polar regions, and (g) The total 20th Century global average sea level rise was about 0.17m, likely due to decline in glaciers, snow, ice sheets, and losses from Greenland and Antarctica ice. Next, projected changes to the Cryosphere: northern hemisphere snow cover, avalanches, land ice, permafrost, freshwater ice, and sea ice changes, are presented.

  15. An apparent hiatus in global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.

    2013-12-01

    Global warming first became evident beyond the bounds of natural variability in the 1970s, but increases in global mean surface temperatures have stalled in the 2000s. Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, create an energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) even as the planet warms to adjust to this imbalance, which is estimated to be 0.5-1 W m-2 over the 2000s. Annual global fluctuations in TOA energy of up to 0.2 W m-2 occur from natural variations in clouds, aerosols, and changes in the Sun. At times of major volcanic eruptions the effects can be much larger. Yet global mean surface temperatures fluctuate much more than these can account for. An energy imbalance is manifested not just as surface atmospheric or ground warming but also as melting sea and land ice, and heating of the oceans. More than 90% of the heat goes into the oceans and, with melting land ice, causes sea level to rise. For the past decade, more than 30% of the heat has apparently penetrated below 700 m depth that is traceable to changes in surface winds mainly over the Pacific in association with a switch to a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1999. Surface warming was much more in evidence during the 1976-1998 positive phase of the PDO, suggesting that natural decadal variability modulates the rate of change of global surface temperatures while sea-level rise is more relentless. Global warming has not stopped; it is merely manifested in different ways.

  16. Can Global Warming Heat Up Environmental Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mazzatenta, Claudio

    2008-01-01

    Bronx Community College (CUNY) launched "Global Warming Campus Awareness and Action Days" in celebration of Earth Day, 2007. The purpose of this program was to raise awareness of environmental issues in the college population, especially students. To let more students have a grasp of what Environmental Education (EE) is all about, the author…

  17. Global warming in the public sphere.

    PubMed

    Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Maslin, Mark; Burgess, Jacquelin

    2007-11-15

    Although the science of global warming has been in place for several decades if not more, only in the last decade and a half has the issue moved clearly into the public sphere as a public policy issue and a political priority. To understand how and why this has occurred, it is essential to consider the history of the scientific theory of the greenhouse effect, the evidence that supports it and the mechanisms through which science interacts with lay publics and other elite actors, such as politicians, policymakers and business decision makers. This article reviews why and how climate change has moved from the bottom to the top of the international political agenda. It traces the scientific discovery of global warming, political and institutional developments to manage it as well as other socially mediated pathways for understanding and promoting global warming as an issue in the public sphere. The article also places this historical overview of global warming as a public issue into a conceptual framework for understanding relationships between society and nature with emphasis on the co-construction of knowledge. PMID:17666388

  18. Global warming and extreme storm surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinsted, Aslak

    2013-04-01

    I will show empirical evidence for how global warming has changed extreme storm surge statistics for different regions in the world. Are there any detectable changes beyond what we expect from sea level rise. What does this suggest about the future of hurricane surges such as from hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy?

  19. Global warming: solar variability and energy consumption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nigro, A.; Pagano, A.; Zuccarello, F.

    Recent measurements support evidence for short-term global warming of the earth's surface. The average trend of the earth's surface anomaly as a function of the time was fitted by a simple thermodynamical model including short-term variation of the solar irradiance as well as anthropogenic forcing.

  20. Can Global Warming Heat Up Environmental Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mazzatenta, Claudio

    2008-01-01

    Bronx Community College (CUNY) launched "Global Warming Campus Awareness and Action Days" in celebration of Earth Day, 2007. The purpose of this program was to raise awareness of environmental issues in the college population, especially students. To let more students have a grasp of what Environmental Education (EE) is all about, the author

  1. Phenology and global warming research in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morellato, L. P. C.

    2009-04-01

    A recent review on South American phenology research has shown an increase in phenology papers over the last two decades, especially in this new 21st century. Nevertheless, there is a lack of long term data sets or monitoring systems, or of papers addressing plant phenology and global warming. The IPCC AR4 report from 2007 has offered indisputable evidence of regional to global-scale change in seasonality, but it is supported by plant and animal phenological data from North Hemisphere and temperate species. Information from tropical regions in general and South America in particular are sparse or lacking. Here I summarize the recent outcomes of our ongoing tropical phenology research in Brazil and its potential contribution to integrate fields and understand the effects of global warming within the tropics. The Phenology Laboratory (UNESP) is located at Rio Claro, São Paulo State, Southeastern Brazil. We are looking for trends and shifts on tropical vegetation phenology, and are exploring different methods for collecting and analyzing phenology data. The phenological studies are developed in collaboration with graduate and undergraduate students, post-docs and researchers from Brazil and around the world. We established three long term monitoring programs on Southeastern Brazil from 2000 onwards: trees from an urban garden, semideciduous forest trees, and savanna cerrado woody vegetation, all based on direct weekly to monthly observation of marked plants. We have collected some discontinuous data from Atlantic rain forest trees ranging from 5 to 8 years long. I collaborate with the longest tropical wet forest phenology monitoring system in Central Amazon, and with another long term monitoring system on semi deciduous forest from South Brazil. All research programs aim, in the long run, to monitor and detect shifts on tropical plant phenology related to climatic changes. Our first preliminary findings suggest that: (i) flowering and leafing are more affected by changes on dry season length and severity, shifting on time and synchrony; (ii) shifts on fruiting are more subtle and related to seed dispersal mechanisms (animal, wind or others); (iii) forest edges and gaps, and distance from urban centers may influence tree phenology, stressing the synergic effect of fragmentation (among others) to global warming on tropical phenology; (iv) ground and satellite generated phenology patterns may not agree, deserving further and detailed research; (v) in situ environmental monitoring systems help to track changes on climate and correlate to ground phenology. Some important steps forward are: (i) to build a Brazilian Phenology Network, first based on a selection of national wide distributed species; (ii) to recover historical phenology data series from our herbarium collections and other sources; (iii) to integrate phenology to remote sensing; (iv) to stimulate more phenology long term monitoring programs and the integration across disciplines, advancing our knowledge of seasonal responses within tropics to long-term climate change.

  2. Environmental colonialism Leadership and global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-02-16

    The vast majority of the world's scientific community believes there is global warming and that it is global problem requiring international cooperation. But policy makers in industrialized countries are at a crossroads:Listen to the skeptics, who demand more proof and who fear economic consequences of an anti-greenhouse campaign, or take the more difficult path of commitment to attacking the problem. Meanwhile, poverty and debt keep. The Third world locked out of any active partnership. This issue of ED highlight their results of recently tapping documents and seminar findings on the subject of global warming. This issue also contains the following: (1) ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of the February 9, 1990; and (2) ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Western Hemisphere, February 1990 edition. 6 figs., 5 tabs.

  3. Dynamical amplification of Arctic and global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Bobylev, Leonid; Gnatiuk, Natalia; Urazgildeeva, Aleksandra

    2015-04-01

    The Arctic is coupled with global climate system by the atmosphere and ocean circulation that provides a major contribution to the Arctic energy budget. Therefore increase of meridional heat transport under global warming can impact on its Arctic amplification. Contribution of heat transport to the recent warming in the Arctic, Northern Hemisphere and the globe are estimated on base of reanalysis data, global climate model data and proposed special index. It is shown that significant part of linear trend during last four decades in average surface air temperature in these areas can be attributed to dynamical amplification. This attribution keeps until 400 mb height with progressive decreasing. The Arctic warming is amplified also due to an increase of humidity and cloudiness in the Arctic atmosphere that follow meridional transport gain. From October to January the Arctic warming trends are amplified as a result of ice edge retreat from the Siberian and Alaska coast and the heating of expanded volume of sea water. This investigation is supported with RFBR project 15-05-03512.

  4. Global warming: Science or politics? Part 2

    SciTech Connect

    Dorweiler, V.P.

    1998-05-01

    Supplementing the conclusion that ``there has been a discernible influence of human activity on global climate`` is a set of dire consequences to the globe and human population. One consequence is the spread of tropical diseases. It has not been concluded whether the spread of disease is due to global conditions or to opening of tropical forests to commerce, allowing spread by travelers. Whether these forecasts abet the claimed relation of human activity to global warming, they are not a new phenomenon. In the space of several decades, dire consequences have been forecast in three sectors: natural resource consumption, energy resources and environmental fate. These three areas are reviewed.

  5. Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

  6. Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lai, C. A.

    2004-12-01

    The impacts of global warming on the environment, economy and society are presently receiving much attention by the international community. However, the extent to which anthropogenic factors are the main cause of global warming is still being debated. There are obviously large stakes associated with the validity of any theory since that will indicate what actions need to be taken to protect the human race's only home - Earth. Most studies of global warming have investigated the rates and quantities of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. In this paper, we focus on the Earth's carbon budget and the associated energy transfer between various components of the climate system. This research invokes some new concepts: (i) certain biochemical processes which strongly interact with geophysical processes in climate system; (ii) a hypothesis that internal processes in the oceans rather than in the atmosphere are at the center of global warming; (iii) chemical energy stored in biochemical processes can significantly affect ocean dynamics and therefore the climate system. Based on those concepts, we propose a new hypothesis for global warming. We also propose a revolutionary strategy to deal with global climate change and provide domestic energy security at the same time. Recent ocean exploration indicates that huge deposits of oceanic methane hydrate deposits exist on the seafloor on continental margins. Methane hydrate transforms into water and methane gas when it dissociates. So, this potentially could provide the United States with energy security if the technology for mining in the 200-mile EEZ is developed and is economically viable. Furthermore, methane hydrate is a relatively environmentally benign, clean fuel. Such technology would help industry reduce carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere, and thus reduce global warming by harnessing the energy from the deep sea.

  7. Global Warming: Claims, Science, and Consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gould, Laurence I.

    2007-04-01

    Widespread (and seemingly dominant) claims about the dire consequences of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) have been propagated by both scientists and politicians and have been prominently featured by much of the mass media. This talk will examine some of those claims --- such as those made in the popular pro-AGW film, An Inconvenient Truth^1 --- from the perspectives of science^2 and scientific methodology^3. Some of the issues considered will be: What are the major ``greenhouse gases''? To what extent is global warming a result of human influences through an increase of ``greenhouse gases''? Is an increase in (1) global temperature and (2) carbon dioxide bad/good? What are some meanings that can be given to the term ``consensus'' in science? What are the estimated financial and other costs of governments implementing the Kyoto accords? Links to readings and videos will be given at the conclusion of the talk. ^1Gore, Al, An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It -- (Rodale Press, May, 2006). ^2Marlo Lewis, ``A Skeptic's Guide to An Inconvenient Truth'' http://www.cei.org/pages/aitresponse-book.cfm ^3Aaron Wildavsky, But Is It True? A Citizen's Guide to Environmental Health and Safety Issues (Harvard University Press, 1995), Intro. and Chap. 11. To cite this abstract, use the following reference: http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2007.NES07.C1.6

  8. National contributions to observed global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damon Matthews, H.; Graham, Tanya L.; Keverian, Serge; Lamontagne, Cassandra; Seto, Donny; Smith, Trevor J.

    2014-01-01

    There is considerable interest in identifying national contributions to global warming as a way of allocating historical responsibility for observed climate change. This task is made difficult by uncertainty associated with national estimates of historical emissions, as well as by difficulty in estimating the climate response to emissions of gases with widely varying atmospheric lifetimes. Here, we present a new estimate of national contributions to observed climate warming, including CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change, as well as methane, nitrous oxide and sulfate aerosol emissions While some countries’ warming contributions are reasonably well defined by fossil fuel CO2 emissions, many countries have dominant contributions from land-use CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, emphasizing the importance of both deforestation and agriculture as components of a country’s contribution to climate warming. Furthermore, because of their short atmospheric lifetime, recent sulfate aerosol emissions have a large impact on a country’s current climate contribution We show also that there are vast disparities in both total and per-capita climate contributions among countries, and that across most developed countries, per-capita contributions are not currently consistent with attempts to restrict global temperature change to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures.

  9. Magnetic fusion development for global warming suppression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jiangang; Zhang, Jie; Duan, Xuru

    2010-01-01

    Energy shortage and environmental pollution are two critical issues for human beings in the 21st century. There is an urgent need for new sustainable energy to meet the fast growing demand for clean energy. Fusion is one of the few options which may be able to satisfy the requirement for large scale sustainable energy generation and global warming suppression and therefore must be developed as quickly as possible. Fusion research has been carried out for the past 50 years. It is too long to wait for another 50 years to generate electricity by fusion. A much more aggressive approach should be taken with international collaboration towards the early use of fusion energy to meet the urgent needs for energy and global warming suppression.

  10. Infectious diseases and global warming: Tracking disease incidence rates globally

    SciTech Connect

    Low, N.C.

    1995-09-01

    Given the increasing importance of impact of global warming on public health, there is no global database system to monitor infectious disease and disease in general, and to which global data of climate change and environmental factors, such as temperature, greenhouse gases, and human activities, e.g., coastal development, deforestation, can be calibrated, investigated and correlated. The author proposes the diseases incidence rates be adopted as the basic global measure of morbidity of infectious diseases. The importance of a correctly chosen measure of morbidity of disease is presented. The importance of choosing disease incidence rates as the measure of morbidity and the mathematical foundation of which are discussed. The author further proposes the establishment of a global database system to track the incidence rates of infectious diseases. Only such a global system can be used to calibrate and correlate other globally tracked climatic, greenhouse gases and environmental data. The infrastructure and data sources for building such a global database is discussed.

  11. Weakening of the global atmospheric circulation with global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kjellsson, Joakim

    2015-08-01

    This study finds that the global atmospheric circulation weakens, i.e. transports less mass, by about 5 % per degree of global warming as a result of anthropogenic emissions. This is found by calculating a global thermodynamic mass stream function and diagnosing long-term changes in a set of climate-model simulations in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th assessment report. The global atmospheric circulation also expands in thermodynamic coordinates due to increased dry static energy and latent heat in the tropical troposphere. The surface warming and moistening follows a Clausius-Clapeyron relation and tropical moist ascent remains nearly moist adiabatic. Furthermore, the meridional overturning circulation is found to only weaken slightly suggesting that the dominant change is in the zonally asymmetric circulation, i.e. the Walker circulation. The total poleward energy transport increases while the poleward mass transport decreases. The results are found to be robust across the climate models studied.

  12. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

    PubMed

    Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

    2013-05-16

    Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions. PMID:23676754

  13. Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown onboard sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study, we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help of the onboard warm-blackbody temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically-weighted global-mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 K/decade during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite-deduced result.

  14. Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

    2001-01-01

    Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown on-board sequential, sun-synchronous, polar orbiting NOAA operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by the satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help the onboard warm black body temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically weighted global mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid-troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 K per decade (with an uncertainty of 0.05 K per decade) during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite deuced result.

  15. Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

    PubMed

    Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

    2015-06-01

    Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause. PMID:26185070

  16. Scientists' views about attribution of global warming.

    PubMed

    Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

    2014-08-19

    Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents' quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)-providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution-may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents' views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change. PMID:25051508

  17. Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.; Lobitz, B.

    1997-12-31

    The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially alter these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.

  18. Microwave sounding units and global warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gary, Bruce L.; Keihm, Stephen J.

    1991-01-01

    A recent work of Spencer and Christy (1990) on precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites is critically examined. It is tentatively concluded in the present comment that remote sensing using satellite microwave radiometers can in fact provide a means for the monitoring of troposphere-averaged air temperature. However, for this to be successful more than one decade of data will be required to overcome the apparent inherent variability of global average air temperature. It is argued that the data set reported by Spencer and Christy should be subjected to careful review before it is interpreted as evidence of the presence or absence of global warming. In a reply, Christy provides specific responses to the commenters' objections.

  19. Global warming and Australian public health: reasons to be concerned.

    PubMed

    Saniotis, Arthur; Bi, Peng

    2009-11-01

    Studies in global warming and climate change indicate that human populations will be deleteriously affected in the future. Studies forecast that Australia will experience increasing heat waves and droughts. Heat stress caused by frequent heat waves will have a marked effect on older Australians due to physiological and pharmacological factors. In this paper we present an overview of some of the foreseeable issues which older Australians will face from a public health perspective. PMID:20166910

  20. Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability.

    PubMed

    Wood, Richard A; Vellinga, Michael; Thorpe, Robert

    2003-09-15

    The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC, including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe, including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions. (i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming, and if so by how much? (ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely? Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However, there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however, some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual, modelling and observational uncertainties, but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future. PMID:14558904

  1. Punishments and Prizes for Explaining Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somerville, R. C.

    2006-12-01

    Some few gifted scientists, the late Carl Sagan being an iconic example, are superbly skilled at communicating science clearly and compellingly to non-scientists. Most scientists, however, have serious shortcomings as communicators. The common failings include being verbose, addicted to jargon, caveat- obsessed and focused on details. In addition, it is far easier for a scientist to scoff at the scientific illiteracy of modern society than to work at understanding the viewpoints and concerns of journalists, policymakers and the public. Obstacles await even those scientists with the desire and the talent to communicate science well. Peer pressure and career disincentives can act as powerful deterrents, discouraging especially younger scientists from spending time on non-traditional activities. Scientists often lack mentors and role models to help them develop skills in science communication. Journalists also face real difficulties in getting science stories approved by editors and other gatekeepers. Climate change science brings its own problems in communication. The science itself is unusually wide- ranging and complex. The contentious policies and politics of dealing with global warming are difficult to disentangle from the science. Misinformation and disinformation about climate change are widespread. Intimidation and censorship of scientists by some employers is a serious problem. Polls show that global warming ranks low on the public's list of important issues. Despite all the obstacles, communicating climate change science well is critically important today. It is an art that can be learned and that brings its own rewards and satisfactions. Academic institutions and research funding agencies increasingly value outreach by scientists, and they provide resources to facilitate it. Society needs scientists who can clearly and authoritatively explain the science of global warming and its implications, while remaining objective and policy-neutral. This need will only increase in coming years as climate change makes the transition from a topic of limited public interest to one of great concern to all society.

  2. Resource Letter: GW-1: Global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firor, John W.

    1994-06-01

    This Resource Letter provides a guide to the literature on the possibility of a human-induced climate change—a global warming. Journal articles and books are cited for the following topics: the Greenhouse Effect, sources of infrared-trapping gases, climate models and their uncertainties, verification of climate models, past climate changes, and economics, ethics, and politics of policy responses to climate change. [The letter E after an item indicates elementary level or material of general interest to persons becoming informed in the field. The letter I, for intermediate level, indicates material of somewhat more specialized nature, and the letter A indicates rather specialized or advanced material.

  3. Global warming and carbon dioxide through sciences.

    PubMed

    Florides, Georgios A; Christodoulides, Paul

    2009-02-01

    Increased atmospheric CO(2)-concentration is widely being considered as the main driving factor that causes the phenomenon of global warming. This paper attempts to shed more light on the role of atmospheric CO(2) in relation to temperature-increase and, more generally, in relation to Earth's life through the geological aeons, based on a review-assessment of existing related studies. It is pointed out that there has been a debate on the accuracy of temperature reconstructions as well as on the exact impact that CO(2) has on global warming. Moreover, using three independent sets of data (collected from ice-cores and chemistry) we perform a specific regression analysis which concludes that forecasts about the correlation between CO(2)-concentration and temperature rely heavily on the choice of data used, and one cannot be positive that indeed such a correlation exists (for chemistry data) or even, if existing (for ice-cores data), whether it leads to a "severe" or a "gentle" global warming. A very recent development on the greenhouse phenomenon is a validated adiabatic model, based on laws of physics, forecasting a maximum temperature-increase of 0.01-0.03 degrees C for a value doubling the present concentration of atmospheric CO(2). Through a further review of related studies and facts from disciplines like biology and geology, where CO(2)-change is viewed from a different perspective, it is suggested that CO(2)-change is not necessarily always a negative factor for the environment. In fact it is shown that CO(2)-increase has stimulated the growth of plants, while the CO(2)-change history has altered the physiology of plants. Moreover, data from palaeoclimatology show that the CO(2)-content in the atmosphere is at a minimum in this geological aeon. Finally it is stressed that the understanding of the functioning of Earth's complex climate system (especially for water, solar radiation and so forth) is still poor and, hence, scientific knowledge is not at a level to give definite and precise answers for the causes of global warming. PMID:18760479

  4. Anthropogenic global warming threatens world cultural heritage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cazenave, Anny

    2014-05-01

    Numerous cultural sites of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) world cultural Heritage are located in low-lying coastal regions. Because of anthropogenic global warming and induced sea level rise, many of these sites will be partially or totally flooded in the coming centuries/millennia. This is shown in a recent study by Marzeion and Levermann (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034001). Projecting future sea level rise and associated regional variability, these authors investigate which sites will be at risk. Because UNESCO cultural sites represent the common heritage of human beings and reflect the Earth and humanity history, they need to be protected for future generations.

  5. Does coral bleaching mean global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, J.A.

    1991-02-01

    This article discusses the implications of global warming on the marine ecosystems. In recent hearings of the US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, plans were made to introduce legislation for control of greenhouse-gas emissions, conservation of biological diversity, forest conservation, world population planning, sustainable economic development , increased fuel efficiency, and increased research into Earth-system processes. Research is required to ascertain the meaning of coral bleaching, which is the mass expulsion of symbiotic algae, called zooxanthellae, which gives the coral its color. Many scientists think that the death of the algae is an early indicator for massive destruction of the marine ecosystem.

  6. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in a double-cropping cereal rotation as affected by nitrogen and straw management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, T.; Gao, B.; Christie, P.; Ju, X.

    2013-12-01

    The effects of nitrogen and straw management on global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) in a winter wheat-summer maize double-cropping system on the North China Plain were investigated. We measured nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and studied net GWP (NGWP) and GHGI by calculating the net exchange of CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq) from greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural inputs and management practices, as well as changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), based on a long-term field experiment established in 2006. The field experiment includes six treatments with three fertilizer N levels (zero N (control), optimum and conventional N) and straw removal (i.e. N0, Nopt and Ncon) or return (i.e. SN0, SNopt and SNcon). Optimum N management (Nopt, SNopt) saved roughly half of the fertilizer N compared to conventional agricultural practice (Ncon, SNcon), with no significant effect on grain yields. Annual mean N2O emissions reached 3.90 kg N2O-N ha-1 in Ncon and SNcon, and N2O emissions were reduced by 46.9% by optimizing N management of Nopt and SNopt. Straw return increased annual mean N2O emissions by 27.9%. Annual SOC sequestration was 0.40-1.44 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 in plots with N application and/or straw return. Compared to the conventional N treatments the optimum N treatments reduced NGWP by 51%, comprising 25% from decreasing N2O emissions and 75% from reducing N fertilizer application rates. Straw return treatments reduced NGWP by 30% compared to no straw return because the GWP from increments of SOC offset the GWP from higher emissions of N2O, N fertilizer and fuel after straw return. The GHGI trends from the different nitrogen and straw management practices were similar to the NGWP. In conclusion, optimum N and straw return significantly reduced NGWP and GHGI and concomitantly achieved relatively high grain yields in this important winter wheat-summer maize double-cropping system.

  7. Separating Contributions from Anthropogenic Warming and from Natural Oscillations to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konrad Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa

    2014-05-01

    During the past five decades, global air temperatures have been warming at a rather high rate (IPCC-2013) resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in field data sampling and model simulations and affects both air temperatures over land and over the ocean. However, the warming rate changes with time and this has led to question the causes underlying the observed trends. Here, we analyze recent measured and modeled data on global mean surface air temperature anomalies (GMTA) covering the last 160 years using spectral techniques. The spectral analysis of the measured data does show a strong secular trend (ST) and a clear multidecadal sinusoidal oscillation (MDV) that resembles the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The observed acceleration of the warming during the period from 1970 to 2000 therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming (~60%) with the positive phase of a multidecadal oscillation (~40%), while the recent slowdown (hiatus) of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the MDV phase. It has been proposed that this change in the MDV phase could mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades and our analysis indicates that this is quite likely, the current hiatus being already a manifestation of this phenomenon. Most current generation global circulation models (CMIP5) do not reproduce this MDV and are missing the actual temperature hiatus. Therefore, it is less likely that such models could correctly forecast the temperature evolution during the coming decades. We propose here to use the climate dynamics that is inherent in the GMTA data to forecast temperatures until 2100. These forecasts, based on the analyzed secular trend and the multidecadal oscillations are indeed capable of reproducing the actual hiatus and generally result, in comparison to CMIP5 forecasts, in much lower temperature increases for 2100 of only about 1oC. Global mean air temperatures could be even decreasing for the next 2-3 decades. Henceforth, for a correct assessment of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the global air temperatures in the future natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account.

  8. Revaluating ocean warming impacts on global phytoplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behrenfeld, Michael J.; O'Malley, Robert T.; Boss, Emmanuel S.; Westberry, Toby K.; Graff, Jason R.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Siegel, David A.; Brown, Matthew B.

    2016-03-01

    Global satellite observations document expansions of the low-chlorophyll central ocean gyres and an overall inverse relationship between anomalies in sea surface temperature and phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations. These findings can provide an invaluable glimpse into potential future ocean changes, but only if the story they tell is accurately interpreted. Chlorophyll is not simply a measure of phytoplankton biomass, but also registers changes in intracellular pigmentation arising from light-driven (photoacclimation) and nutrient-driven physiological responses. Here, we show that the photoacclimation response is an important component of temporal chlorophyll variability across the global ocean. This attribution implies that contemporary relationships between chlorophyll changes and ocean warming are not indicative of proportional changes in productivity, as light-driven decreases in chlorophyll can be associated with constant or even increased photosynthesis. Extension of these results to future change, however, requires further evaluation of how the multifaceted stressors of a warmer, higher-CO2 world will impact plankton communities.

  9. Black carbon contribution to global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Chylek, P.; Johnson, B.; Kou, L.; Wong, J.

    1996-12-31

    Before the onset of industrial revolution the only important source of black carbon in the atmosphere was biomass burning. Today, black carbon production is divided between the biomass and fossil fuel burning. Black carbon is a major agent responsible for absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric aerosols. Thus black carbon makes other aerosols less efficient in their role of reflecting solar radiation and cooling the earth-atmosphere system. Black carbon also contributes to the absorption of solar radiation by clouds and snow cover. The authors present the results of black carbon concentrations measurements in the atmosphere, in cloud water, in rain and snow melt water collected during the 1992--1996 time period over the southern Nova Scotia. Their results are put into the global and historical perspective by comparing them with the compilation of past measurements at diverse locations and with their measurements of black carbon concentrations in the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores. Black carbon contribution to the global warming is estimated, and compared to the carbon dioxide warming, using the radiative forcing caused by the black carbon at the top of the atmosphere.

  10. Identifying the Molecular Origin of Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bera, Partha P.; Francisco, Joseph S.; Lee, Timothy J.

    2009-01-01

    We have investigated the physical characteristics of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to assess which properties are most important in determining the efficiency of a GHG. Chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), nitrogen fluorides, and various other known atmospheric trace molecules have been included in this study. Compounds containing the halogens F or Cl have in common very polar X-F or X-Cl bonds, particularly the X-F bonds. It is shown that as more F atoms bond to the same central atom, the bond dipoles become larger as a result of the central atom becoming more positive. This leads to a linear increase in the total or integrated XF bond dipole derivatives for the molecule, which leads to a non-linear (quadratic) increase in infrared (IR) intensity. Moreover, virtually all of the X-F bond stretches occur in the atmospheric IR window as opposed to X-H stretches, which do not occur in the atmospheric window. It is concluded that molecules possessing several F atoms will always have a large radiative forcing parameter in the calculation of their global warming potential. Some of the implications for global warming and climate change are discussed.

  11. {sup 85}Kr induced global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Zakharov, V.I.

    1996-12-31

    It`s well known that the trace atmospheric constituent as {sup 85}Kr is at present about 10{sup 6} cm{sup {minus}3} and increasing considerably (twice every 8--10 years) as a result of nuclear fuel utilization. This paper presents the model of influence of {sup 85}Kr accumulation in the earth atmosphere on climate perturbation and global warming. The process of increasing the concentrations in the troposphere due to the anthropogenic emission of {sup 85}Kr and its radioactive decay is analyzed, based on master kinetic equations. Results indicate that anthropogenic emissions contributing to the total equilibrium concentration of tropospheric ions due to {sup 85}Kr is about equal to the natural level of tropospheric ions. The influence of atmospheric electricity on the transformation between water vapor and clouds which result in an increase in the concentration of ions in troposphere is investigated. The paper shows that the process of anthropogenic accumulation of {sup 85}Kr in the troposphere at present rate up to 2005--2010 increases the mean of the dew-point temperature several degrees on the global scale. Relevant change of height for the lower level of clouds has been obtained. Positive feedback between the process of warming of the lower atmosphere and the concentration of tropospheric ions has been considered.

  12. Does Global Warming Influence Tornado Activity?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Trapp, Robert J.; Brooks, Harold

    2008-12-01

    Tornadoes and other severe thunderstorm phenomena frequently cause as much annual property damage in the United States as do hurricanes, and often cause more fatalities (see http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml). In 2008, there were 2176 preliminary tornado reports logged through mid-December, with 1600 ``actual counts'' (duplicate reports removed) through September, the highest total in the past half century (Figure 1). The mass media have covered these events extensively, and experts have been deluged with requests for explanations, including possible links to anthropogenic global warming. Although recent research has yielded insight into the connections between global warming and tornado and severe thunderstorm forcing, these relationships remain mostly unexplored, largely because of the challenges in observing and numerically simulating tornadoes. Indeed, a number of questions that have been answered for other climate-related phenomena remain particularly difficult for climate and severe weather scientists, including whether there are detectable trends in tornado occurrence and if so, what causes them. This article explores the challenges and opportunities in pursuing these areas of research.

  13. Environmental refugees in a globally warmed world

    SciTech Connect

    Myers, N.

    1993-12-01

    This paper examines the complex problem of environmental refugees as among the most serious of all the effects of global warming. Shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, and agricultural disruption from drought, soil erosion and desertification are factors now and in the future in creating a group of environmental refugees. Estimates are that at least 10 million such refugees exist today. A preliminary analysis is presented here as a first attempt to understand the full character and extent of the problem. Countries with large delta and coastal areas and large populations are at particular risk from sea-level rise of as little as .5 - 1 meter, compounded by storm surge and salt water intrusions. Bangladesh, Egypt, China, and India are discussed in detail along with Island states at risk. Other global warming effects such as shifts in monsoon systems and severe and persistent droughts make agriculture particularly vulnerable. Lack of soil moisture is during the growing season will probably be the primary problem. Additional and compounding environmental problems are discussed, and an overview of the economic, sociocultural and political consequences is given. 96 refs., 1 tab.

  14. Global warming potential impact of bioenergy systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tonini, D.; Hamelin, L.; Wenzel, H.; Astrup, T.

    2012-10-01

    Reducing dependence on fossil fuels and mitigation of GHG emissions is a main focus in the energy strategy of many Countries. In the case of Demark, for instance, the long-term target of the energy policy is to reach 100% renewable energy system. This can be achieved by drastic reduction of the energy demand, optimization of production/distribution and substitution of fossil fuels with biomasses. However, a large increase in biomass consumption will finally induce conversion of arable and currently cultivated land into fields dedicated to energy crops production determining significant environmental consequences related to land use changes. In this study the global warming potential impact associated with six alternative bioenergy systems based on willow and Miscanthus was assessed by means of life-cycle assessment. The results showed that bioenergy production may generate higher global warming impacts than the reference fossil fuel system, when the impacts from indirect land use changes are accounted for. In a life-cycle perspective, only highly-efficient co-firing with fossil fuel achieved a (modest) GHG emission reduction.

  15. Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar time series obtained from conventional observations of temperature.

  16. The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1992-12-01

    During the past three years we have conducted several studies using models and a combination of satellite data, in situ meteorological and oceanic data, and paleoclimate reconstructions, under the DoE program, Quantifying the Link Between Change in Radiative Balance and Atmospheric Temperature''. Our goals were to investigate effects of global cloudiness variations on global climate and their implications for cloud feedback and continue development and application of NYU transient climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by both the clouds and oceans. Our original research plan emphasized the use of cloud, surface temperature and ocean data sets interpreted by focused climate/ocean models to develop a cloud radiative forcing scenario for the past 100 years and to assess the transient climate response; to narrow key uncertainties in the system; and to identify those aspects of the climate system most likely to be affected by greenhouse warming over short, medium and long time scales.

  17. Potential effects on health of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Haines, A. . Whittington Hospital); Parry, M. . Environmental Change Unit)

    1993-12-01

    Prediction of the impacts of global climate change on health is complicated by a number of factors. These include: the difficulty in predicting regional changes in climate, the capacity for adaptation to climate change, the interactions between the effects of global climate change and a number of other key determinants of health, including population growth and poverty, and the availability of adequate preventive and curative facilities for diseases that may be effected by climate change. Nevertheless, it is of importance to consider the potential health impacts of global climate change for a number of reasons. It is also important to monitor diseases which could be effected by climate change in order to detect changes in incidence as early as possible and study possible interactions with other factors. It seems likely that the possible impacts on health of climate change will be a major determinant of the degree to which policies aimed at reducing global warming are followed, as perceptions of the effect of climate change to human health and well-being are particularly likely to influence public opinion. The potential health impacts of climate change can be divided into direct (primary) and indirect (secondary and tertiary) effects. Primary effects are those related to the effect of temperature on human well-being and disease. Secondary effects include the impacts on health of changes in food production, availability of water and of sea level rise. A tertiary level of impacts can also be hypothesized.

  18. Scientists' Views about Attribution of Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

    2015-04-01

    What do scientists think? That is an important question when engaging in science communication, in which an attempt is made to communicate the scientific understanding to a lay audience. To address this question we undertook a large and detailed survey among scientists studying various aspects of climate change , dubbed "perhaps the most thorough survey of climate scientists ever" by well-known climate scientist and science communicator Gavin Schmidt. Among more than 1800 respondents we found widespread agreement that global warming is predominantly caused by human greenhouse gases. This consensus strengthens with increased expertise, as defined by the number of self-reported articles in the peer-reviewed literature. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), agreed that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of recent global warming, i.e. having contributed more than half of the observed warming. With this survey we specified what the consensus position entails with much greater specificity than previous studies. The relevance of this consensus for science communication will be discussed. Another important result from our survey is that the main attribution statement in IPCC's fourth assessment report (AR4) may lead to an underestimate of the greenhouse gas contribution to warming, because it implicitly includes the lesser known masking effect of cooling aerosols. This shows the importance of the exact wording in high-profile reports such as those from IPCC in how the statement is perceived, even by fellow scientists. The phrasing was improved in the most recent assessment report (AR5). Respondents who characterized the human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change. This shows that contrarian opinions are amplified in the media in relation to their prevalence in the scientific community. This is related to what is sometimes referred to as "false balance" in media reporting and may partly explain the divergence between public and scientific opinion regarding climate change.

  19. Halocarbon ozone depletion and global warming potentials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cox, Richard A.; Wuebbles, D.; Atkinson, R.; Connell, Peter S.; Dorn, H. P.; Derudder, A.; Derwent, Richard G.; Fehsenfeld, F. C.; Fisher, D.; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.

    1990-01-01

    Concern over the global environmental consequences of fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has created a need to determine the potential impacts of other halogenated organic compounds on stratospheric ozone and climate. The CFCs, which do not contain an H atom, are not oxidized or photolyzed in the troposphere. These compounds are transported into the stratosphere where they decompose and can lead to chlorine catalyzed ozone depletion. The hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs or HFCs), in particular those proposed as substitutes for CFCs, contain at least one hydrogen atom in the molecule, which confers on these compounds a much greater sensitivity toward oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere, resulting in much shorter atmospheric lifetimes than CFCs, and consequently lower potential for depleting ozone. The available information is reviewed which relates to the lifetime of these compounds (HCFCs and HFCs) in the troposphere, and up-to-date assessments are reported of the potential relative effects of CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, and halons on stratospheric ozone and global climate (through 'greenhouse' global warming).

  20. Global Warming: The Threat to the Planet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James

    2007-04-01

    Paleoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the `albedo flip' property of water substance, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that `flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Ice sheet and ocean inertia provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. CO2 is the largest human-made climate forcing, but CH4, O3, N2O and black carbon (BC) are important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could still ``save the Arctic,'' while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and the global environment.

  1. Global warming bill promotes recycling, composting

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-06-01

    H.R. 1078, the Global Warming Prevention Act, was introduced into the U.S. House of Representatives by Rep. Claudine Schneider (R-RI) in February. While key features of the bill revolve around reducing carbon dioxide emissions and increasing energy conservation and efficiency and use of renewable energy sources, a section deals with recyclable materials. The bill calls for establishment of an Office of Recycling Research and Information within the Dept. of Commerce to promote recyclable materials programs. Other elements include: improving the recycling of government-generated wastes as well as improving procurement of recyclable materials; a pilot project on MSW and sewage sludge composting; and a ban on production or sale of certain designated nonrecyclable consumer goods.

  2. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  3. Global Warming Education for Astro 101 Classes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowenthal, James D.; Guinan, E. F.; Knezek, P.; Lacy, J. H.; Marshall, P. J.; Rodgers, B.; Rykoff, E.; Sheth, K.

    2012-01-01

    The AAS Sustainability Committee (SC) aims to reduce the ecological footprint of the AAS. The SC has identified three major areas of concern on which to focus for the coming year: (1) AAS Meetings, which are energy-intensive because of their associated travel, lodging, and conference center needs; (2) other travel, including to observing runs, team meetings, and conferences -- some of that travel could reasonably be replaced with teleconferencing options, which we are exploring; and (3) education. There will be a special session at this meeting devoted to helping astronomy professors include global warming in their Astro 101 classes. Several seasoned educators will share their tips and provide online resources such as PowerPoint slides and figures on climate change.

  4. Are Claims of Global Warming Being Suppressed?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    2006-02-01

    Over the last few years, I have heard many rumors that climate science relevant to the global warming discussion is being suppressed by the Bush Administration. One cannot do much about third-hand information. However, on 29 January, the New York Times published a front page article on NASA efforts to suppress statements about global warming by James Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. A claim by one government scientist, though, no matter how distinguished, still requires examples from other scientists before a general conclusion can be drawn about the overall scope of the problem. But if the charges are more widespread, then some government scientists might be reluctant to make such claims, because they might feel that their positions were jeopardized. Therefore, an alternate way may be needed to determine the scope of the issue, while still safeguarding government workers from possible retaliation. -On 30 January, Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R-N.Y.), chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, wrote a letter to NASA Administrator Michael Griffin addressing many of the concerns Crowley has raised. Boehlert wrote,``It ought to go without saying that government scientists must be free to describe their scientific conclusions and the implications of those conclusions to their fellow scientists, policymakers and the general public.'' He continued,``Good science cannot long persist in an atmosphere of intimidation. Political figures ought to be reviewing their public statements to make sure they are consistent with the best available science; scientists should not be reviewing their statements to make sure they are consistent with the current political orthodoxy.'' I commend Rep. Boehlert for his quick and clear statement of the importance of unfettered communication of science. -FRED SPILHAUS, Editor

  5. Direct health effects of global warming in Japan and China

    SciTech Connect

    Ando, M.; Yamamoto, S.; Tamura, K.

    1997-12-31

    Combustion of fossil fuels and industrial and agricultural activities are resulting in greater emissions of some greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, therefore contributing to global warming. Using general circulation models, it is estimated that surface temperatures in temperate regions will rise 1 to 3 degrees C during the next 100 years. Because global warming may increase the frequency and length of high temperatures during hot summer months, various health risks caused by heat stress have been studied. According to our epidemiological survey, the incidence of heat-related illness was significantly correlated to hot environments in Tokyo, Japan and in Nanjing and Wuhan, China. The epidemiological results also showed that the incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality in the elderly increased very rapidly in summer. The regression analysis on these data showed that the number of heat stroke patients increased exponentially when the mean daily temperature and maximum daily temperature exceeded 27C and 32C in Tokyo and 31C and 36C in Wuhan and Nanjing, respectively. Since the incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality has been shown to increase as a result of exposure to long periods of hot summer temperatures, it is important to determine to what extent the incidence of heat stress-related morbidity and mortality will be affected as a result of global warming.

  6. Anesthesia and global warming: the real hazards of theoretic science

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Recent speculative articles in the medical literature have indicted certain inhalational anesthetics as contributing to global warming. This unfounded speculation may have deleterious patient impact PMID:22444758

  7. Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdun, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of < or = -1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of > or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

  8. Ecosystem Warming Affects CO2 Flux in an Agricultural Soil

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global warming seems likely based on present-day climate predictions. Our objective was to characterize and quantify the interactive effects of ecosystem warming (i.e., canopy temperature, TS), soil moisture content ('S) and microbial biomass (BM: bacteria, fungi) on the intra-row soil CO2 flux (FS)...

  9. Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

    PubMed

    Keller, Charles F

    2007-01-01

    In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03), research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed, and I hope that, by treating just the most significant aspects of the research, this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular, while most of CFK03 remains current, there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem, but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved, and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1,000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that, while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations, it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter century or so. However, this conclusion is being challenged by differing interpretations of satellite observations of Total Solar Insolation (TSI). Different satellites give different estimates of TSI during the 1996-7 solar activity minimum. A recent study using the larger TSI satellite interpretation indicates a stronger role for the sun, and until there is agreement on TSI at solar minimum, we caution completely disregarding the sun as a significant factor in recent warming. Computer models continue to improve and, while they still do not do a satisfactory job of predicting regional changes, their simulations of global aspects of climate change and of individual forcings are increasingly reliable. In addition to these four areas, the past five years have seen advances in our understanding of many other aspects of climate change--from albedo changes due to land use to the dynamics of glacier movement. However, these more are of second order importance and will only be treated very briefly. The big news since CFK03 is the first of these, the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion, namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking, this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that, if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so, then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further, the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions. Thus, while uncertainties still remain, we are now seeing a coherent picture in which past climate variations, solar and other forcings, model predictions and other indicators such as glacier recession all point to a human-induced warming that needs to be considered carefully. A final topic touched on briefly here is the new understanding of the phenomenon called "global dimming." Several sets of observations of the sun's total radiation at the surface have shown that there has been a reduction in sunlight reaching it. This has been related to the scattering of sunlight by aerosols and has led to a better quantification of the possibility that cleaning up our atmospheric pollution will lead to greater global warming. Adding all these advances together, there is a growing consensus that the 21st century will indeed see some 2 degrees C (3.5 degrees F) or more in additional warming. This is corroborated in the new IPCC Assessment, an early release of which is touched on very briefly here. PMID:17370024

  10. A global warming forum: Scientific, economic, and legal overview

    SciTech Connect

    Geyer, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    A Global Warming Forum covers in detail five general subject areas aimed at providing first, the scientific background and technical information available on global warming and second, a study and evaluation of the role of economic, legal, and political considerations in global warming. The five general topic areas discussed are the following: (1) The role of geophysical and geoengineering methods to solve problems related to global climatic change; (2) the role of oceanographic and geochemical methods to provide evidence for global climatic change; (3) the global assessment of greenhouse gas production including the need for additional information; (4) natural resource management needed to provide long-term global energy and agricultural uses; (5) legal, policy, and educational considerations required to properly evaluate global warming proposals.

  11. Changes in ocean vertical heat transport with global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zika, Jan D.; Laliberté, Frédéric; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Sijp, Willem P.; Nurser, A. J. G.

    2015-06-01

    Heat transport between the surface and deep ocean strongly influences transient climate change. Mechanisms setting this transport are investigated using coupled climate models and by projecting ocean circulation into the temperature-depth diagram. In this diagram, a "cold cell" cools the deep ocean through the downwelling of Antarctic waters and upwelling of warmer waters and is balanced by warming due to a "warm cell," coincident with the interhemispheric overturning and previously linked to wind and haline forcing. With anthropogenic warming, the cold cell collapses while the warm cell continues to warm the deep ocean. Simulations with increasingly strong warm cells, set by their mean Southern Hemisphere winds, exhibit increasing deep-ocean warming in response to the same anthropogenic forcing. It is argued that the partition between components of the circulation which cool and warm the deep ocean in the preindustrial climate is a key determinant of ocean vertical heat transport with global warming.

  12. Global crop yield losses from recent warming

    SciTech Connect

    Lobell, D; Field, C

    2006-06-02

    Global yields of the world-s six most widely grown crops--wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, sorghum--have increased since 1961. Year-to-year variations in growing season minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation explain 30% or more of the variations in yield. Since 1991, climate trends have significantly decreased yield trends in all crops but rice, leading to foregone production since 1981 of about 12 million tons per year of wheat or maize, representing an annual economic loss of $1.2 to $1.7 billion. At the global scale, negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields are already apparent. Annual global temperatures have increased by {approx}0.4 C since 1980, with even larger changes observed in several regions (1). While many studies have considered the impacts of future climate changes on food production (2-5), the effects of these past changes on agriculture remain unclear. It is likely that warming has improved yields in some areas, reduced them in others, and had negligible impacts in still others; the relative balance of these effects at the global scale is unknown. An understanding of this balance would help to anticipate impacts of future climate changes, as well as to more accurately assess recent (and thereby project future) technologically driven yield progress. Separating the contribution of climate from concurrent changes in other factors--such as crop cultivars, management practices, soil quality, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) levels--requires models that describe the response of yields to climate. Studies of future global impacts of climate change have typically relied on a bottom-up approach, whereby field scale, process-based models are applied to hundreds of representative sites and then averaged (e.g., ref 2). Such approaches require input data on soil and management conditions, which are often difficult to obtain. Limitations on data quality or quantity can thus limit the utility of this approach, especially at the local scale (6-8). At the global scale, however, many of the processes and impacts captured by field scale models will tend to cancel out, and therefore simpler empirical/statistical models with fewer input requirements may be as accurate (8, 9). Empirical/statistical models also allow the effects of poorly modeled processes (e.g., pest dynamics) to be captured and uncertainties to be readily quantified (10). Here we develop new, empirical/statistical models of global yield responses to climate using datasets on broad-scale yields, crop locations, and climate variability. We focus on global average yields for the six most widely grown crops in the world: wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, and sorghum. Production of these crops accounts for over 40% of global cropland area (11). 55% of non-meat calories, and over 70% of animal feed (12).

  13. Situational Influences upon Children's Beliefs about Global Warming and Energy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Devine-Wright, Patrick; Devine-Wright, Hannah; Fleming, Paul

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores children's beliefs about global warming and energy sources from a psychological perspective, focusing upon situational influences upon subjective beliefs, including perceived self-efficacy. The context of the research is one of growing concern at the potential impacts of global warming, yet demonstrably low levels of…

  14. Situational Influences upon Children's Beliefs about Global Warming and Energy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Devine-Wright, Patrick; Devine-Wright, Hannah; Fleming, Paul

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores children's beliefs about global warming and energy sources from a psychological perspective, focusing upon situational influences upon subjective beliefs, including perceived self-efficacy. The context of the research is one of growing concern at the potential impacts of global warming, yet demonstrably low levels of

  15. Expansion of World Drylands Under Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, S.; Fu, Q.; Hu, Q. S.

    2012-12-01

    The world drylands including both semi-arid and arid regions comprise of one-third of the global land surfaces, which support 14% of the world's inhabitants and a significant share of the world agriculture. Because of meager annual precipitation and large potential evaporative water loss, the ecosystems over drylands are fragile and sensitive to the global change. By analyzing the observations during 1948-2008 and 20 fully coupled climate model simulations from CMIP5 for the period 1900-2100, this study evaluated the changes of the world drylands that are defined with a modified form of the Thornthwaite's moisture index. The results based on observational data showed that the world drylands are steadily expanding during the past 60 years. The areas occupied by drylands in 1994-2008 is about 2.0×10^6km^2 (or 4%) larger than the average during the 1950s. Such an expansion is also a robust feature in the simulations of the 20 global climate models, though the rate is much smaller in the models. A stronger expanding rate is projected during the first half of this century than the simulations in the last century, followed by accelerating expansion after 2050s under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5). By the end of this century, the world drylands are projected to be over 58×10^6km^2 (or 11% increase compared to the 1961-1990 climatology). The projected expansion of drylands, however, is not homogeneous over the world drylands, with major expansion of arid regions over the southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa and Australia. Major expansions of semi-arid regions are projected over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, North and South America. The global warming is the main factor causing the increase of potential evapotranspiration estimated by Penman-Monteith algorithm, which in turn dominants the expansion of drylands. The widening of Hadley cell, which has impact on both temperature and precipitation, also play an important role. This study accentuates the urgent to develop proactive planning and adaptation strategies for increasing aridity in the world drylands to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience in those regions.

  16. Microbial diseases of corals and global warming.

    PubMed

    Rosenberg, Eugene; Ben-Haim, Yael

    2002-06-01

    Coral bleaching and other diseases of corals have increased dramatically during the last few decades. As outbreaks of these diseases are highly correlated with increased sea-water temperature, one of the consequences of global warming will probably be mass destruction of coral reefs. The causative agent(s) of a few of these diseases have been reported: bleaching of Oculina patagonica by Vibrio shiloi; black band disease by a microbial consortium; sea-fan disease (aspergillosis) by Aspergillus sydowii; and coral white plague possibly by Sphingomonas sp. In addition, we have recently discovered that Vibrio coralyticus is the aetiological agent for bleaching the coral Pocillopora damicornis in the Red Sea. In the case of coral bleaching by V. shiloi, the major effect of increasing temperature is the expression of virulence genes by the pathogen. At high summer sea-water temperatures, V. shiloi produces an adhesin that allows it to adhere to a beta-galactoside-containing receptor in the coral mucus, penetrate into the coral epidermis, multiply intracellularly, differentiate into a viable-but-not-culturable (VBNC) state and produce toxins that inhibit photosynthesis and lyse the symbiotic zooxanthellae. In black band disease, sulphide is produced at the coral-microbial biofilm interface, which is probably responsible for tissue death. Reports of newly emerging coral diseases and the lack of epidemiological and biochemical information on the known diseases indicate that this will become a fertile area of research in the interface between microbial ecology and infectious disease. PMID:12071977

  17. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    PubMed

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  18. Global Warming and the Microwave Background.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robitaille, Pierre-Marie

    2008-10-01

    The energy balance of our planet is determined by the relationship between absorbed (solar) and emitted (earthly) radiation. In many models, the Earth's radiation is derived by applying Stefan's Law, at a given effective temperature, thereby treating the globe as a uniform blackbody source. However, the oceans cannot be treated as simple blackbody emitters. In fact, while water can provide strong emission bands in the IR, the spectrum is far from blackbody. This is particularly important in the microwave region where the oceans mimic a 3K blackbody source (the Penzias and Wilson signal). As a result, the oceans are poor emitters of radiation in this spectral range. Their inability to efficiently emit radiation results in substantial retention of thermal energy within oceanic systems. Unable to dissipate heat through emission, the oceans turn to convection currents. This provides a driving force for oceanic currents and for hurricanes. It is in the interest of the United States to properly ascertain the Earth's emission profile by using an array of satellites which continually monitor spectral emissions from the microwave through the IR. These satellites will reveal that the Penzias and Wilson signal does originate from the oceans. It is only when the complete emission profile of the Earth is properly understood that mankind will begin to make real progress in modeling global warming.

  19. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  20. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

  1. A Contribution by Ice Nuclei to Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O.; Li, Xiaofan

    2009-01-01

    Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal variations between the inferred and observed warming suggests that IN may have contributed positively to global warming over the past decades, especially in middle and high latitudes.

  2. Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage.

    PubMed

    Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:25671171

  3. Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage

    PubMed Central

    Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:25671171

  4. A policy synthesis approach for slowing global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Timilsina, G.R.

    1996-12-31

    Global warming is a burning environmental issue today but confronting with subjective as well as policy conflicts. The findings of various studies indicate that developed countries that are capable of affording effective measures towards the global warming mitigation have fewer incentives for doing so because they will have a minimal damage from global warming. The developing countries, although they will have greater damage, are unlikely to divert their development budget for taking preventive actions towards global warming. The only solution in this situation is to design a policy that encourages all the nation in the world to participate in the programs for slowing global warming. Without active participation of all nations, it seems unlikely to reduce the global warming problem in an effective way. This study presents a qualitative policy recommendation extracted from a comprehensive analysis of the findings of several studies conducted so far in this field. This study has categorized the policy approaches for mitigating the global warming in three groups: Engineering approach, forestry approach and economic approach.

  5. Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massad, Eduardo; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; da Silva, Daniel Rodrigues

    2011-06-01

    Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases.

  6. Global warming, energy use, and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khanna, Neha

    The dissertation comprises four papers that explore the interactions between global warming, energy use, and economic growth. While the papers are separate entities, they share the underlying theme of highlighting national differences in the growth experience and their implications for long-term energy use and climate change. The first paper provides an overview of some key economic issues in the climate change literature. In doing so, the paper critically appraises the 1995 draft report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The focus is the choice of a pure rate of time preference in the economic modeling of climate change, abatement costs differentials between developed and developing countries, and contrasting implications of standard discount rates and value of life estimates for these two country groups. The second paper develops a global model that takes account of the depletion of oil resources in the context of a geo-economic model for climate change. It is found that in the presence of non-decreasing carbon and energy intensities and declining petroleum availability, the carbon emissions trajectory is much higher than that typically projected by other models of this genre. Furthermore, by introducing price and income sensitive demand functions for fossil fuels, the model provides a framework to assess the effectiveness of fuel specific carbon taxes in reducing the COsb2 emissions trajectory. Cross-price substitution effects necessitate unrealistically high tax rates in order to lower the projected emissions trajectory to the optimal level. The economic structure of five integrated assessment models for climate change is reviewed in the third paper, with a special focus on the macroeconomic and damage assessment modules. The final paper undertakes an econometric estimation of the changing shares of capital, labour, energy, and technical change in explaining the growth patterns of 38 countries. Production elasticities vary by country group and also in response to the levels of factor use. It is found that classifying countries according to the GDP growth rate yields statistically different slope coefficients. Using the estimated translog production function, the capital and labour requirements of reductions in energy use are approximated. Analytical expressions for the elasticity of energy intensity with respect to factor inputs and also autonomous energy efficiency improvements are provided.

  7. Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, D. L.

    2009-12-01

    Since both greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds strongly affect outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with no affect or less affect on solar radiation, respectively, an attempt to delay global warming to buy time for emission reduction strategies to work might naturally target cirrus clouds. Cirrus having optical depths < 3.6 cover 13% of the globe and have a net warming effect on climate, with the coldest cirrus having the strongest warming effect. Roughly 2/3 of predicted global warming is due to the feedback effect of water vapor and clouds from an initial greenhouse gas forcing, and a recent study indicates water vapor and clouds in the upper troposphere (UT) have the greatest impact on climate sensitivity (the equilibrium response of global-mean surface temperature to a CO2 doubling). Thus altering UT water vapor and cirrus may be a good strategy for climate engineering. Cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing via GCM simulations are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). This cirrus engineered net forcing is due to (1) reduced cirrus coverage and (2) reduced upper tropospheric water vapor, due to enhanced ice sedimentation. The implementation of this climate engineering could use the airline industry to disperse the seeding material. Commercial airliners typically fly at temperatures between -40 and -60 deg. C (where homogeneous freezing nucleation dominates). Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The seeding material could be released in both clear and cloudy conditions to build up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei so that non-contrail cirrus will experience these nuclei and grow larger ice crystals. Flight corridors are denser in the high- and mid-latitudes where global warming is more severe. A risk with any geoengineering experiment is that it could affect climate in unforeseen ways, causing more harm than good. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are 1-2 weeks, the climate might return back to its normal state within a few months after stopping the geoengineering. A drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It may not have many of the draw-backs that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has, such as ozone destruction, decreased solar radiation possibly altering the hydrological cycle with more frequent droughts, greater expense, the creation of a white sky and less solar energy. In addition, modeling studies indicate it would take at least 3 years for the climate system to return to “normal” upon termination of stratospheric geoengineering.

  8. Carbon cycle: Global warming then and now

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stassen, Peter

    2016-04-01

    A rapid warming event 55.8 million years ago was caused by extensive carbon emissions. The rate of change of carbon and oxygen isotopes in marine shelf sediments suggests that carbon emission rates were much slower than anthropogenic emissions.

  9. Possible human health impacts of a global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Nichols, M.C.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Cheng, S.

    1995-03-01

    Some ways in which a global warming may affect human health are discussed. Research is presented which explores the hypothesis that heat stress-induced mortality may increase substantially in the event of a worldwide temperature increase. Two procedures are applied to four disparate nations: the US, Canada, China and Egypt. Results indicate that significant increases in heat-related mortality are likely to occur, particularly in developing nations. Factors which might help to mitigate these increases, such as acclimatization and air conditioning, are also examined. Another human health impact of a global warming is the likely spread of certain vector-borne diseases into areas of the world where they do not currently exist. Two of these, onchocerciasis and malaria, have been chosen for a detailed international study. The initial steps in this effort are discussed. Policy options are proposed which may prepare international organizations and public officials for difficulties which may arise. Implementation of these procedures, which include continuation of internationally sponsored research, could help to ameliorate many of the problems outlined in this paper.

  10. Military implications of global warming. Strategy research project

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, P.E.

    1999-05-20

    The 1998 National Security Strategy repeatedly cites global environmental issues as key to the long-term security of the United States. Similarly, US environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current US Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate change. It discusses related economic factors and environmental concerns. It assesses current White House policy as it relates to the US military. It reviews the Department of Defense strategy for energy conservation and reduction of greenhouse gases. Finally, it offers recommendations and options for military involvement to reduce global warming. Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the US military. As the United States leadership in environmental matters encourages global stability, the US military will be able to focus more on readiness and on military training and operations.

  11. Grazing Effects on Net Global Warming Potential in Mixed Grass Prairie

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Quantification of global warming potential (GWP) for grassland ecosystems is critically important given their vast geographical extent and inherent capacity to affect the global carbon cycle. Contributions of grassland ecosystems to net GWP, however, are largely unknown. In this study, we sought t...

  12. The Role of Emotion in Global Warming Policy Support and Opposition

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed. PMID:24219420

  13. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    PubMed

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. PMID:25236841

  14. The 7. global warming international conference and expo: Abstracts

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-31

    This conference was held April 1--3, 1996 in Vienna, Austria. The purpose of this conference was to provide a multidisciplinary forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on global warming. Topics of interest include the following: global and regional natural resource management; energy, transportation, minerals and natural resource management; industrial technology and greenhouse gas emission; strategies for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emission; greenhouse gas production/utilization and carbon budgets; strategies for promoting the understanding of global change; international policy strategy and economics; and global warming and public health. Individual papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  15. Majority of Americans Believe Global Warming Is Occurring, Survey Shows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2013-04-01

    Seventy-eight percent of the American public believe that global warming has been occurring, according to a 2012 survey presented by Jon Krosnick, senior fellow with the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, at a 28 March briefing on Capitol Hill on the trajectory of public perceptions about global warming and government involvement in the issue. While the percentage has varied from 75% to 85% since 1997, the survey results "contradict any claims that Americans have turned away from this issue in large numbers," said Krosnick, who is also the Frederic O. Glover Professor in Humanities and Social Sciences at Stanford University, Calif. "They still believe that warming has been happening."

  16. Cold stress on Russian territory during last global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Vinogradov, V.V.

    1996-12-31

    A great part of Russian territory is characterized by climate discomfort of life. In winter cold stress covers nearly all territory. The purpose of this work is to learn how the climatic discomfort of life is affected by climate change. The effect of global warming for the period 1981--1990 on geographical distribution of bioclimatic indexes by seasons (compared with average figures) is analyzed. Indexes of enthalpy, dry cooling, wind chill, wet cooling, effective temperature, physiological deficit index for monthly average figures were calculated and the data bank for the period 1981--1990 was made up. The indexes of enthalpy, wet cooling, and dry cooling according to Bodman were chosen as the most informative and independent. Maps of the climatic indexes taking into account temperature, humidity and wind speed were made up on the basis of the calculated figures.

  17. Physical aspects of the greenhouse effect and global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knox, Robert S.

    1999-12-01

    According to the simplest model of the earth's radiative balance, global warming will occur with certainty as humankind increases its production and consumption of nonsolar energy. This prediction is revisited, using a broader model that allows the greenhouse effect to be considered. The new model predicts a global warming of ?TE=(114 K)?, where ? is the rate of surface energy release in units of the average incident solar radiation, 342 W m-2, and ?TE is the average temperature rise at the earth's surface. Present values of these quantities, excluding geothermal sources, are ?=0.6910-4 and ?TE=7.9 mK. The model assigns a small number of optical parameters to the atmosphere and surface and qualifies the simple warming prediction: It is rigorous only if parameters other than ? are unchanged. The model is not complex and should serve as an aid to an elementary understanding of global warming.

  18. Surface measurements of global warming causing atmospheric constituents in Korea.

    PubMed

    Oh, S N; Youn, Y H; Park, K J; Min, H K; Schnell, R C

    2001-07-01

    The expansion of the industrial economy and the increase of population in Northeast Asian countries have caused much interest in climate monitoring related to global warming. However, new techniques and better platforms for the measurement of global warming and regional databases are still old-fashioned and are not being developed sufficiently. With respect to this agenda, since 1993, at the request of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), to monitor functions of global warming, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has set up a Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Station on the western coast of Korea (Anmyun-do) and has been actively monitoring global warming over Northeast Asia. In addition, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has been measured for a similar KMA global warming program at Kosan, Cheju Island since 1990. Aerosol and radiation have also been measured at both sites as well as in Seoul. The observations have been analyzed using diagnostics of climate change in Northeast Asia and also have been internationally compared. Results indicate that greenhouse gases are in good statistic agreement with the NOAA/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) long-term trends of monthly mean concentrations and seasonal cycles. Atmospheric particulate matter has also been analyzed for particular Asian types in terms of optical depth, number concentration and size distribution. PMID:11516015

  19. Slowing global warming: benefits for patients and the planet.

    PubMed

    Parker, Cindy L

    2011-08-01

    Global warming will cause significant harm to the health of persons and their communities by compromising food and water supplies; increasing risks of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases and heat stress; changing social determinants of health resulting from extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and expanding flood plains; and worsening air quality, resulting in additional morbidity and mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Vulnerable populations such as children, older persons, persons living at or below the poverty level, and minorities will be affected earliest and greatest, but everyone likely will be affected at some point. Family physicians can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, stabilize the climate, and reduce the risks of climate change while also directly improving the health of their patients. Health interventions that have a beneficial effect on climate change include encouraging patients to reduce the amount of red meat in their diets and to replace some vehicular transportation with walking or bicycling. Patients are more likely to make such lifestyle changes if their physician asks them to and leads by example. Medical offices and hospitals can become more energy efficient by recycling, purchasing wind-generated electricity, and turning off appliances, computers, and lights when not in use. Moreover, physicians can play an important role in improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by advocating for enforcement of existing air quality regulations and working with local and national policy makers to further improve air quality standards, thereby improving the health of their patients and slowing global climate change. PMID:21842773

  20. Global warming. (Latest citations from the NTIS database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-02-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning policies and general studies on global warming. Topics include the greenhouse effect, global climatic models, and climatic effects from combustion of fossil fuels. (Contains a minimum of 173 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  1. Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, C. D.; Palmer, M. D.; McNeall, D.; Collins, M.

    2015-04-01

    Since the end of the twentieth century, global mean surface temperature has not risen as rapidly as predicted by global climate models (GCMs). This discrepancy has become known as the global warming `hiatus’ and a variety of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the observed slowdown in warming. Focusing on internally generated variability, we use pre-industrial control simulations from an observationally constrained ensemble of GCMs and a statistical approach to evaluate the expected frequency and characteristics of variability-driven hiatus periods and their likelihood of future continuation. Given an expected forced warming trend of ~0.2 K per decade, our constrained ensemble of GCMs implies that the probability of a variability-driven 10-year hiatus is ~10%, but less than 1% for a 20-year hiatus. Although the absolute probability of a 20-year hiatus is small, the probability that an existing 15-year hiatus will continue another five years is much higher (up to 25%). Therefore, given the recognized contribution of internal climate variability to the reduced rate of global warming during the past 15 years, we should not be surprised if the current hiatus continues until the end of the decade. Following the termination of a variability-driven hiatus, we also show that there is an increased likelihood of accelerated global warming associated with release of heat from the sub-surface ocean and a reversal of the phase of decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean.

  2. Thai Youths and Global Warming: Media Information, Awareness, and Lifestyle Activities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chokriensukchai, Kanchana; Tamang, Ritendra

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the exposure of Thai youths to media information on global warming, the relationship between exposure to global warming information and awareness of global warming, and the relationship between that awareness and lifestyle activities that contribute to global warming. A focus group of eight Thai youths provided information that…

  3. Thai Youths and Global Warming: Media Information, Awareness, and Lifestyle Activities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chokriensukchai, Kanchana; Tamang, Ritendra

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the exposure of Thai youths to media information on global warming, the relationship between exposure to global warming information and awareness of global warming, and the relationship between that awareness and lifestyle activities that contribute to global warming. A focus group of eight Thai youths provided information that

  4. Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, G. T.

    2006-12-01

    The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of institutional commitment to energy conservation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy resources, colleges and universities must focus public and professional attention on the imperative for action and the means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and countering global warming.

  5. Geographical features of global water cycle during warm geological epochs

    SciTech Connect

    Georgiadi, A.G.

    1996-12-31

    The impact of global warming on the water cycle can be extremely complex and diverse. The goal of the investigation was to estimate the geographic features of the mean annual water budget of the world during climatic optimums of the Holocene and the Eemian interglacial periods. These geological epochs could be used as analogs of climatic warming on 1 degree, centigrade and 2 degrees, centigrade. The author used the results of climatic reconstructions based on a simplified version of a GCM.

  6. The impact of global warming on Mount Everest.

    PubMed

    Moore, G W K; Semple, John L

    2009-01-01

    Global warming impacts a wide range of human activities and ecosystems. One unanticipated consequence of the warming is an increase in barometric pressure throughout the troposphere. Mount Everest's extreme height and resulting low barometric pressure places humans near its summit in an extreme state of hypoxia. Here we quantify the degree with which this warming is increasing the barometric pressure near Everest's summit and argue that it is of such a magnitude as to make the mountain, over time, easier to climb. PMID:20039819

  7. Warming will affect phytoplankton differently: evidence through a mechanistic approach

    PubMed Central

    Huertas, I. Emma; Rouco, Mónica; López-Rodas, Victoria; Costas, Eduardo

    2011-01-01

    Although the consequences of global warming in aquatic ecosystems are only beginning to be revealed, a key to forecasting the impact on aquatic communities is an understanding of individual species' vulnerability to increased temperature. Despite their microscopic size, phytoplankton support about half of the global primary production, drive essential biogeochemical cycles and represent the basis of the aquatic food web. At present, it is known that phytoplankton are important targets and, consequently, harbingers of climate change in aquatic systems. Therefore, investigating the capacity of phytoplankton to adapt to the predicted warming has become a relevant issue. However, considering the polyphyletic complexity of the phytoplankton community, different responses to increased temperature are expected. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on 12 species of phytoplankton isolated from a variety of environments by using a mechanistic approach able to assess evolutionary adaptation (the so-called ratchet technique). We found different degrees of tolerance to temperature rises and an interspecific capacity for genetic adaptation. The thermal resistance level reached by each species is discussed in relation to their respective original habitats. Our study additionally provides evidence on the most resistant phytoplankton groups in a future warming scenario. PMID:21508031

  8. Upper Temperature Limits of Tropical Marine Ectotherms: Global Warming Implications

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Khanh Dung T.; Morley, Simon A.; Lai, Chien-Houng; Clark, Melody S.; Tan, Koh Siang; Bates, Amanda E.; Peck, Lloyd S.

    2011-01-01

    Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour−1, the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41–52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37–41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2–3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming. PMID:22242115

  9. Changes in Terrestrial Water Availability under Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lan, C. W.; Lo, M. H.; Chou, C.

    2014-12-01

    Under global warming, the annual range of precipitation is widening (Chou and Lan, 2012; Chou et al., 2013) and the frequency of precipitation extreme events also increases. Due to nonlinear responses of land hydrological process to precipitation extremes, runoff can increase exponentially, and on the hard hand, soil water storage may decline. In addition, IPCC AR5 indicates that soil moisture decreases in most areas under the global warming scenario. In this study, we use NCAR Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) to simulate changes in terrestrial available water (TAW, defined as the precipitation minus evaporation minus runoff, and then divided by the precipitation) under global warming. Preliminary results show that the TAW has clear seasonal variations. Compared to previous studies, which do not include the runoff in the calculations of the available water, our estimates on the TAW has much less available water in high latitudes through out the year, especially under extreme precipitation events.

  10. Bog breath: Sleeper factor in global warming?

    SciTech Connect

    Benyus, J.M.

    1995-04-01

    This artical examines the emission of gases from northern peatlands as plants grow and decay and its implication in the global increase in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide and methane. Bogs do extract carbon dioxide from the air, incorporating it into green plants which become buried for a long time. However, the cold, wet conditions are ideal for microbes which emit methane. Global climate change models indicate that Minnesota, for example will be 5 degrees warmer and somewhat wetter in future years. As a result bacterial metabolism and methane generation may increase considerably. This paper discusses current research and speculation and looks at possible solutions, both man-created and natural.

  11. Myth or reality; Some data dispute global warming theory

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, R.W.

    1991-04-01

    Science in March 1990 published a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) analysis of data collected from 1979 through 1988 by the TIROS-N series of weather satellites. The data include the most precise global temperature measurements ever taken. The study found no evidence of global warming from the greenhouse effect during that period. If anything, the short-term trend was toward cooling, since the average of the first five years, 1979 to 1983, was warmer than the most recent five. The NASA findings can be added to a burgeoning body of scientific data seriously questioning the contention that Earth is threatened by global warming resulting from a greenhouse effect primarily instigated by man. Ironically, James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has been the nation's most outspoken advocate of the thesis that, because concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and other greenhouse gases, such as methane, have risen by 30 percent in the last 100 years and are expected to rise another 40 percent by 2050, the planet eventually will warm by about 4 degrees Celsius. According to this hypothesis, the warming will cause major coastal flooding, inland droughts and sundry other catastrophes. But Reid Bryson, founder of the Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin, contends Hansen's thesis cannot be accepted, and Michael Schlesinger, professor of meteorology at the University of Illinois, asserts the chance that global warming has already been detected is pretty close to zero.

  12. Global warming: knowledge and views of Iranian students.

    PubMed

    Yazdanparast, Taraneh; Salehpour, Sousan; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Seyedmehdi, Seyed Mohammad; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin; Attarchi, Mirsaeed

    2013-01-01

    Study of students' knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students' knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed "if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter" and "incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming". 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought "the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide" and "presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect". 68.4% believed "not using cars so much is a cure for global warming". While a student's 'cognitive score' could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 & 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P<0.01) and grade 1 students (P<0.001) but there was no statistically significant difference between students of different regions (P>0.05). In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students' mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter. PMID:23605603

  13. REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING - THE ROLE OF RICE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Activities to provide energy for an expanding population are increasingly disrupting and changing the concentration of atmospheric gases that increase global temperature. ncreased CO2 and temperature have a clear effect on growth and production of rice as they are key factors in ...

  14. Global Warming and Food Insecurity in Rural Latin America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrne, T. R.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S.

    2012-12-01

    Food insecurity is one of the most important challenges facing humanity in the 21st century - a challenge that will be further exacerbated by the changing climate. The effects of human induced climate change will be most disproportionate and severe in the developing world, where a stable food supply, decreased purchasing power, and adequate nutrition are often already a daily struggle. This study will build on work done by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN), and will assess how vulnerability to household food insecurity will be affected by global warming in various rural parts of Latin America. Temperature data from downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCM) will be used in conjunction with the results of national household surveys to generate information on each rural farming household's probability of falling below a food poverty threshold in the near future. The results of the study will allow us to distinguish between households that are likely to experience chronic food insecurity and those that are likely to experience transitory food insecurity, permitting for improved targeting of policy responses.

  15. Global warming: is weight loss a solution?

    PubMed

    Gryka, A; Broom, J; Rolland, C

    2012-03-01

    The current climate change has been most likely caused by the increased greenhouse gas emissions. We have looked at the major greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO(2)), and estimated the reduction in the CO(2) emissions that would occur with the theoretical global weight loss. The calculations were based on our previous weight loss study, investigating the effects of a low-carbohydrate diet on body weight, body composition and resting metabolic rate of obese volunteers with type 2 diabetes. At 6 months, we observed decreases in weight, fat mass, fat free mass and CO(2) production. We estimated that a 10 kg weight loss of all obese and overweight people would result in a decrease of 49.560 Mt of CO(2) per year, which would equal to 0.2% of the CO(2) emitted globally in 2007. This reduction could help meet the CO(2) emission reduction targets and unquestionably would be of a great benefit to the global health. PMID:21792168

  16. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr — not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth’s climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates — except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

  17. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

    PubMed

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature. PMID:26813867

  18. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming

    PubMed Central

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr — not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth’s climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates — except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature. PMID:26813867

  19. More data needed to support or disprove global warming theory

    SciTech Connect

    1997-05-26

    Reports of global warming are prevalent in the popular press. With the exception of Scandinavia, no major energy tax laws have been passed to date. But environmental pressures may change this, and the change could have a profound effect on refiners. These are the views of Gerald T. Westbrook, of TSBV Consultants, Houston. Westbrook summarized recent global-warming research, and his position on the subject, at the National Petroleum Refiners Association annual meeting, held March 16--18, in San Antonio. The greenhouse effect is real, says Westbrook. It is important, however, to distinguish between the two major mechanisms of the greenhouse effect: natural warming and anthropogenic warming (changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases caused by man). Without greenhouse gases the earth`s equilibrium temperature would be {minus}18 C. The effect of the gases is to raise the equilibrium temperature to 15 C. In the early 1980s, computer models estimated global warming over the past 100 years to be as much as 2.3 C. By 1986, those estimates had been reduced to 1.0 C, and in 1988, a range of 0.63 {+-} 0.2 C was reported. In 1995, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) cited a range of 0.3--0.6 C. Westbrook asserts that the earth`s motion anomalies--orbit eccentricity, axial tilt, and wobbles--lead to dramatic changes in insolation, and are the dominant force over the last 160,000 years.

  20. Global warming: Perspectives from the Late Quaternary paleomammal record

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.W. )

    1993-03-01

    Global warming at the end of the Pleistocene caused significant environmental changes that directly and indirectly effected biotic communities. The biotic response to this global warming event can provide insights into the processes that might be anticipated for future climatic changes. The megafauna extinction may have been the most dramatic alteration of mammalian communities at the end of the Pleistocene. Late Quaternary warming also altered regional diversity patterns for some small mammal guilds without extinction. Reductions in body size for both small and large mammal species were also consequences of these environmental fluctuations. Geographic shifts in the distributions of individual mammal species resulted in changes in species composition of mammalian communities. The individualistic response of biota to environmental fluctuations define some boundary conditions for modeling communities. Understanding these boundary conditions is mandatory in planning for the preservation of biodiversity in the future. Finally, it is essential to determine how global warming will alter seasonal patterns because it is apparent from the paleobiological record that not all Quaternary warming events have been the same.

  1. Biotic prognostications: Global warming and biological diversity

    SciTech Connect

    Peters, R.L.; Lovejoy, T.E.

    1992-12-31

    This book focuses on the impacts of the greenhouse effect on biological diversity and on natural ecosystems. Included are chapters which include the following topics: government attitudes to climate change problems; general conclusions and deficiencies of general circulation models; impacts of past climate changes on global biota; effects of climate on vegetation, soils, wildlife diversity, animal physiology, ecology, behavior, migration, and parasites and diseases; arctic mariene ecosystems and coasta marine zones; tropical forests; arctic tundra; western North American forests, etc.; indirect linkages and snyergisms among climate change, biodiversity, geosphere, and anthropogenic stresses.

  2. Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, Wolfgang; Ostberg, Sebastian; Heinke, Jens; Kowarsch, Martin; Kreft, Holger; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Rastgooy, Johann; Warren, Rachel; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2013-09-01

    This modelling study demonstrates at what level of global mean temperature rise (ΔTg) regions will be exposed to significant decreases of freshwater availability and changes to terrestrial ecosystems. Projections are based on a new, consistent set of 152 climate scenarios (eight ΔTg trajectories reaching 1.5-5 ° C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, each scaled with spatial patterns from 19 general circulation models). The results suggest that already at a ΔTg of 2 ° C and mainly in the subtropics, higher water scarcity would occur in >50% out of the 19 climate scenarios. Substantial biogeochemical and vegetation structural changes would also occur at 2 ° C, but mainly in subpolar and semiarid ecosystems. Other regions would be affected at higher ΔTg levels, with lower intensity or with lower confidence. In total, mean global warming levels of 2 ° C, 3.5 ° C and 5 ° C are simulated to expose an additional 8%, 11% and 13% of the world population to new or aggravated water scarcity, respectively, with >50% confidence (while ˜1.3 billion people already live in water-scarce regions). Concurrently, substantial habitat transformations would occur in biogeographic regions that contain 1% (in zones affected at 2 ° C), 10% (3.5 ° C) and 74% (5 ° C) of present endemism-weighted vascular plant species, respectively. The results suggest nonlinear growth of impacts along with ΔTg and highlight regional disparities in impact magnitudes and critical ΔTg levels.

  3. Volcanoes may warm locally while cooling globally

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1993-05-28

    The debris thrown into the stratosphere by the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo was supposed to give the world a break from the record-shattering global warmth of the 1980s. But throughout North America and much of northern Eurasia those expectations were confounded as the following winter proved unusually mild. Normally frigid Minneapolis, for example, had its third warmest winter ever, with temperatures averaging a relatively sultry 4.3[degree]C above normal. So the obvious question is, what might have temporarily counteracted Pinatubo's chilling effects on the northern continents The stratospheric haze created by Mt. Pinatubo did, as expected, screen out some sunlight and cool the globe as a whole. But recent evidence also suggests that it may have had the counter-intuitive effect of raising winter temperatures in large regions of North America and northern Eurasia by altering the weather patterns in those areas.

  4. The impact of Global Warming on global crop yields due to changes in pest pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battisti, D. S.; Tewksbury, J. J.; Deutsch, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    A billion people currently lack reliable access to sufficient food and almost half of the calories feeding these people come from just three crops: rice, maize, wheat. Insect pests are among the largest factors affecting the yield of these three crops, but models assessing the effects of global warming on crops rarely consider changes in insect pest pressure on crop yields. We use well-established relationships between temperature and insect physiology to project climate-driven changes in pest pressure, defined as integrated population metabolism, for the three major crops. By the middle of this century, under most scenarios, insect pest pressure is projected to increase by more than 50% in temperate areas, while increases in tropical regions will be more modest. Yield relationships indicate that the largest increases in insect pest pressure are likely to occur in areas where yield is greatest, suggesting increased strain on global food markets.

  5. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was

  6. Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming: A Failed Experiment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ribeiro, Carla

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is a current environmental issue that has been linked to an increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. To raise awareness of the problem, various simple experiments have been proposed to demonstrate the effect of carbon dioxide on the planet's temperature. This article describes a similar experiment, which…

  7. Global Warming: If You Can't Stand the Heat

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baird, Stephen L.

    2005-01-01

    Global warming is the progressive, gradual rise of the earth's average surface temperature, thought to be caused in part by increased concentrations of "greenhouse" gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's temperature has risen by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated

  8. A Noted Physicist's Contrarian View of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstein, Evan R., Comp.

    2008-01-01

    According to Freeman Dyson, an emeritus professor of physics at the Institute for Advanced Study, the debate about global warming has become too narrow and opinions have become too entrenched. Relying on a computer model designed by the Yale University economist William D. Nordhaus, Dyson compared the effectiveness and economic feasibility of…

  9. Promotion of Scientific Literacy on Global Warming by Process Drama

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pongsophon, Pongprapan; Yutakom, Naruemon; Boujaoude, Saouma B.

    2010-01-01

    This project aims to investigate how process drama promotes scientific literacy in the context of global warming. Thirty-one lower (n = 24) and upper (n = 7) secondary students of one secondary school in Bangkok, Thailand participated in a seven-day workshop which process drama strategy was implemented. In the workshop, the students were actively…

  10. Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E

    1999-01-01

    The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

  11. Turkish Prospective Teachers' Understanding and Misunderstanding on Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ocal, A.; Kisoglu, M.; Alas, A.; Gurbuz, H.

    2011-01-01

    The key objective of this study is to determine the Turkish elementary prospective teachers' opinions on global warming. It is also aimed to establish prospective teachers' views about the environmental education in Turkish universities. A true-false type scale was administered to 564 prospective teachers from science education, social studies…

  12. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  13. Global Warming: If You Can't Stand the Heat

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baird, Stephen L.

    2005-01-01

    Global warming is the progressive, gradual rise of the earth's average surface temperature, thought to be caused in part by increased concentrations of "greenhouse" gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's temperature has risen by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated…

  14. College Students' Misconceptions of Environmental Issues Related to Global Warming.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groves, Fred H.; Pugh, Ava F.

    Students are currently exposed to world environmental problems--including global warming and the greenhouse effect--in science classes at various points during their K-12 and college experience. However, the amount and depth of explosure to these issues can be quite variable. Students are also exposed to sources of misinformation leading to…

  15. 8th Global warming international conference and exposition

    SciTech Connect

    1997-12-31

    Abstracts are presented from The 8th Annual Global Warming international conference and expo. Topics centered around greenhouse gas emission and disposal methods, policy and economics, carbon budget, and resource management. Individual reports have been processed separately for the United States Department of Energy databases.

  16. Global Warming on the International Agenda. Teaching Strategy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keenan-Byrne, Patricia; Malkasian, Mark

    1997-01-01

    Presents a lesson plan that teaches students the links between industrialization and global warming, and analyzes the conflicting values and priorities involved in the debate between economic development and environmental concerns. Students role play delegates from countries attending an environmental conference. Handouts provide background…

  17. Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming: A Failed Experiment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ribeiro, Carla

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is a current environmental issue that has been linked to an increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. To raise awareness of the problem, various simple experiments have been proposed to demonstrate the effect of carbon dioxide on the planet's temperature. This article describes a similar experiment, which

  18. A Noted Physicist's Contrarian View of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstein, Evan R., Comp.

    2008-01-01

    According to Freeman Dyson, an emeritus professor of physics at the Institute for Advanced Study, the debate about global warming has become too narrow and opinions have become too entrenched. Relying on a computer model designed by the Yale University economist William D. Nordhaus, Dyson compared the effectiveness and economic feasibility of

  19. Turkish Prospective Teachers' Understanding and Misunderstanding on Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ocal, A.; Kisoglu, M.; Alas, A.; Gurbuz, H.

    2011-01-01

    The key objective of this study is to determine the Turkish elementary prospective teachers' opinions on global warming. It is also aimed to establish prospective teachers' views about the environmental education in Turkish universities. A true-false type scale was administered to 564 prospective teachers from science education, social studies

  20. Promotion of Scientific Literacy on Global Warming by Process Drama

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pongsophon, Pongprapan; Yutakom, Naruemon; Boujaoude, Saouma B.

    2010-01-01

    This project aims to investigate how process drama promotes scientific literacy in the context of global warming. Thirty-one lower (n = 24) and upper (n = 7) secondary students of one secondary school in Bangkok, Thailand participated in a seven-day workshop which process drama strategy was implemented. In the workshop, the students were actively

  1. Simulation of future global warming scenarios in rice paddies with an open-field warming facility

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    To simulate expected future global warming, hexagonal arrays of infrared heaters have previously been used to warm open-field canopies of upland crops such as wheat. Through the use of concrete-anchored posts, improved software, overhead wires, extensive grounding, and monitoring with a thermal camera, the technology was safely and reliably extended to paddy rice fields. The system maintained canopy temperature increases within 0.5°C of daytime and nighttime set-point differences of 1.3 and 2.7°C 67% of the time. PMID:22145582

  2. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  3. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

    PubMed

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  4. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

    PubMed Central

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  5. Atmospheric impacts of sea ice decline in CO2 induced global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cvijanovic, Ivana; Caldeira, Ken

    2015-03-01

    Changes in sea ice cover have important consequences for both Earth's energy budget and atmospheric dynamics. Sea ice acts as a positive feedback in the climate system, amplifying effects of radiative forcing while also affecting the meridional and interhemispheric temperature gradients that can impact mid- and low latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we partition and evaluate the effects of changing sea ice cover on global warming using a set of simulations with active and suppressed sea ice response. Two aspects of CO2-induced sea ice changes are investigated: (1) the effect of changing sea ice cover on global and local temperature changes; and (2) the impact of sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and extreme weather events. We find that in the absence of sea ice decline, global temperature response decreases by 21-37 %, depending on the sea ice treatment and the CO2 forcing applied. Weakened global warming in the absence of changes in sea ice cover is not only due to a decreased high latitude warming but is also a consequence of a weaker tropical warming. In the northern midlatitudes, sea ice decline affects the magnitude and sign of zonal wind response to global warming in the winter and autumn seasons. Presence or absence of sea ice cover impacts the intensity and frequency of winter extreme precipitation and temperature events (temperature minima, number of heavy precipitation days and number of ice days). For some of the analyzed extreme weather indices, the difference between the responses with and without sea ice decline is eliminated when taking into account the amplifying effect of sea ice loss on hemispheric warming. However, in other cases, we find the influence of higher order factors, exerting weaker but opposing effects than those expected from the global temperature increase.

  6. Impact of the global warming hiatus on Andean temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuille, Mathias; Franquist, Eric; Garreaud, René; Sven Lavado Casimiro, Waldo; Cáceres, Bolivar

    2015-05-01

    The recent hiatus in global warming is likely to be reflected in Andean temperature, given its close dependence on tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). While recent work in the subtropical Andes has indeed documented a cooling along coastal areas, trends in the tropical Andes show continued warming. Here we analyze spatiotemporal temperature variability along the western side of the Andes with a dense station network updated to 2010 and investigate its linkages to tropical Pacific modes of variability. Results indicate that the warming in tropical latitudes has come to a halt and that the subtropical regions continue to experience cooling. Trends, however, are highly dependent on elevation. While coastal regions experience cooling, higher elevations continue to warm. The coastal cooling is consistent with the observed Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) fingerprint and can be accurately simulated using a simple PDO-analog model. Much of the PDO imprint is modulated and transmitted through adjustments in coastal SST off western South America. At inland and higher-elevation locations, however, temperature trends start to diverge from this PDO-analog model in the late 1980s and have by now emerged above the 1σ model spread. Future warming at higher elevation is likely and will contribute to further vertical stratification of atmospheric temperature trends. In coastal locations, future warming or cooling will depend on the potential future intensification of the South Pacific anticyclone but also on continued temperature dependence on the state of the PDO.

  7. I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow: Using Procrastination Management to Combat Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malott, Richard W.

    2010-01-01

    In the provocatively titled "I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow," Dick Malott says that although we all want to do the right thing to help the environment, whether it's buying and installing compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) or replacing an energy-guzzling appliance with a more efficient one, we put it off because there's no…

  8. I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow: Using Procrastination Management to Combat Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malott, Richard W.

    2010-01-01

    In the provocatively titled "I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow," Dick Malott says that although we all want to do the right thing to help the environment, whether it's buying and installing compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) or replacing an energy-guzzling appliance with a more efficient one, we put it off because there's no

  9. Potential effects of global warming on calving caribou

    SciTech Connect

    Eastland, W.G.; White, R.G.

    1992-03-01

    Calving grounds of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are often in the portion of their range that remains covered by snow late into spring. The authors propose that global warming would alter the duration of snow cover on the calving grounds and the rate of snowmelt, and thus affect caribou population dynamics. The rationale for this hypothesis is based upon the following arguments. For females of the Porcupine Herd, one of the few forages available before and during early calving are the inflorescences of cotton grass (Eriophorum vaginatum), which are very digestible, high in nitrogen and phosphorus, and low in phenols and acid-detergent fiber. The nutritional levels of the inflorescences are highest in the early stages of phenology and decline rapidly until they are lowest at seed set, about 2 weeks after being exposed from snow cover. The high nutritional level of cotton grass inflorescences is important to post-paturient caribou attempting to meet nutritional requirements of lactation while minimizing associated weight loss. The pattern of weight regain in summer is important to herd productivity as female body weight at mating influences conception in late summer and calving success in spring. Therefore, temporal changes in snowmelt may have major effects on nutritional regimes of the female.

  10. Numerical simulation of global ozone transport during stratospheric sudden warming

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, C.M.

    1982-01-01

    The variation of ozone distribution during a stratospheric sudden warming period was investigated through 3 numerical experiments. The first is a Lagrangian type particle tracing experiment. Air particles were released continuously from 5 different sources into the flows which were simulated from the global model (Koermer, 1980) for the study of the major warming and minor warming. The second was a numerical simulation of ozone transport in an Eulerian system (experiment P1). A 3-D ozone transport-diffusion model in an unequal-distanced vertical resolution system was developed. It was run for 29 consecutive days. In the model, the horizontal and vertical components of eddy diffusivity are computed from the model data (Koermer, 1980) in the case of major warming which was divided into 3 stages: prewarming, warming and after-warming stages. The third experiment was designed to include the photochemical reactions in our model (experiment P2). The computation has been performed for 2 days during the warming period. In the first experiment, air particles at upper levels tend to move poleward and upward (equatorward and downward) at higher (lower) latitudes. In the second experiment, a strong increase in ozone amount does occur at higher latitudes in the stratosphere during the warming period. In the third experiment, the inclusion of photochemical system in the model does not destroy but intensifies the ozone increasing. From the above results, the existence of the Lagrangian-mean indirect and direct circulations of the movements of air particles or ozone molecules caused by the planetary-scale wave activities in the upper and lower stratosphere, appears to explain the phenomenon of the ozone increasing at higher latitudes.

  11. Quantifying global warming from the retreat of glaciers

    SciTech Connect

    Oerlemans, J. )

    1994-04-08

    Records of glacier fluctuations compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service can be used to derive an independent estimate of global warming during the last 100 years. Records of different glaciers are made comparable by a two-step scaling procedure; one allowing for differences in glacier geometry, the other for differences in climate sensitivity. The retreat of glaciers during the last 100 years appears to be coherent over the globe. On the basis of modeling of the climate sensitivity of glaciers, the observed glacier retreat can be explained by a linear warming trend of 0.66 kelvin per century.

  12. Global warming solutions and the path to recovery.

    PubMed

    Foster, David

    2009-01-01

    We will look back on the last year as a period when extraordinary economic events marked the unraveling of one economic model and placed in front of the global community a set of choices. Either we restructure the architecture of the global economy and replace it with something else, or we face a future of devastating economic consequences. The Blue Green Alliance has become one of America's leading advocates for global warming solutions and we believe that the benefits and economic opportunities will far outweigh the costs. We have popularized the terms "green economy" and "green jobs" and we believe that every job in America should turn into a green job. PMID:19608497

  13. Global warming solutions and the path to recovery.

    TOXLINE Toxicology Bibliographic Information

    Foster D

    2009-01-01

    We will look back on the last year as a period when extraordinary economic events marked the unraveling of one economic model and placed in front of the global community a set of choices. Either we restructure the architecture of the global economy and replace it with something else, or we face a future of devastating economic consequences. The Blue Green Alliance has become one of America's leading advocates for global warming solutions and we believe that the benefits and economic opportunities will far outweigh the costs. We have popularized the terms "green economy" and "green jobs" and we believe that every job in America should turn into a green job.

  14. Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications.

    PubMed

    Lin, I-I; Chan, Johnny C L

    2015-01-01

    Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ∼ 35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition 'worsened' at the same time. The 'worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the 'better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling. PMID:25990561

  15. Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications

    PubMed Central

    Lin, I-I; Chan, Johnny C.L.

    2015-01-01

    Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ∼35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition ‘worsened' at the same time. The ‘worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the ‘better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling. PMID:25990561

  16. Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium

    PubMed Central

    Rühland, K. M.; Paterson, A. M.; Keller, W.; Michelutti, N.; Smol, J. P.

    2013-01-01

    We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance. PMID:24107529

  17. Floods, Droughts and Global Warming: Rolling the Climate Dice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, W. K.; Wu, H.; Kim, K.

    2013-12-01

    In this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to CO2 greenhouse warming. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7×2.4%K-1), less moderate precipitation (-2.5×0.6%K-1), more light precipitation (+1.8×1.3%K-1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7×2.1%K-1). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Changes in the global circulation associated with the precipitation changes include a narrowing and deepening of convective zone, a rise of the center of gravity and acceleration of the upper branch of the Hadley circulation, an expansion of the subtropics and a poleward shift of the jetstream. Our results suggest that increased risks of severe floods and droughts worldwide induced by increased CO2 emission is the manifestation of a canonical response of the global rainfall system in association with a re-adjustment of the global circulation system, in a competition for increased availability of atmospheric moisture from global warming.

  18. CFC Destruction of Ozone - Major Cause of Recent Global Warming!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashworth, R. A.

    2008-12-01

    There has been a lot of discussion about global warming. Some say anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions caused the earth to warm. Others say there is no abnormality at all, that it is just natural warming. As you will see from the data presented and analyzed, a greater than normal warming did occur in recent times but no measurements confirm an increase in CO2, whether anthropogenic or natural, had any effect on global temperatures. There is however, strong evidence that anthropogenic emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were the major cause of the recent abnormal warming. CFCs have created both unnatural atmospheric cooling and warming based on these facts: CFCs have destroyed ozone in the lower stratosphere/ upper troposphere causing these zones in the atmosphere to cool 1.37°C from 1966 to 1998. This time span was selected to eliminate the effect of the natural solar irradiance (cooling-warming) cycle effect on the earth's temperature. The loss of ozone allowed more UV light to pass through the stratosphere at a sufficient rate to warm the lower troposphere plus 8-3/4" of the earth by 0.48°C (1966 to 1998). Mass and energy balances show that the energy that was absorbed in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere hit the lower troposphere/earth at a sustainable level of 1.69 × 10 18 Btu more in 1998 than it did in 1966. Greater ozone depletion in the Polar Regions has caused these areas to warm some two and one-half (2 1/2) times that of the average earth temperature -1.2°C versus 0.48°C. This has caused permafrost to melt, which is releasing copious quantities of methane, estimated at 100 times that of manmade CO2 release, to the atmosphere. Methane in the atmosphere slowly converts to CO2 and water vapor and its release has contributed to higher CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. There is a temperature anomaly in Antarctica. The Signey Island landmass further north, warmed like the rest of the Polar Regions; but south at Vostok, there has been a cooling effect. Although the cooling at Vostok needs to be analyzed in more detail, because of the large ozone hole there, black body radiation from Vostok, some 11,400 feet above sea level, to outer space is most likely the cause. Especially, since this phenomenon occurred over the same period that stratospheric ozone destruction took place. Chlorofluorocarbon destruction of stratospheric ozone can be correlated nicely with both the cooling and warming temperature anomalies seen over the time span from 1966 to 1998 and compared to actual temperature measurements, the ozone signature for global warming is the closest of the five signature impacts developed by the IPCC. Further,the "greenhouse signature" is not seen at all. One can account for most, if not all, of the 0.48°C rise in earth's temperature from 1966 to 1998 with the additional UV light that hit the earth due to ozone destruction in the upper atmosphere.

  19. Management of Philippine tropical forests: Implications to global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Lasco, R.D.

    1997-12-31

    The first part of the paper presents the massive changes in tropical land management in the Philippines as a result of a {open_quotes}paradigm shift{close_quotes} in forestry. The second part of the paper analyzes the impacts of the above management strategies on global warming, in general, preserved forests are neither sinks not sources of greenhouse gasses (GHG). Reforestation activities are primarily net sinks of carbon specially the use of fast growing reforestation species. Estimates are given for the carbon-sequestering ability of some commonly used species. The last part of the paper policy recommendations and possible courses of action by the government to maximize the role of forest lands in the mitigation of global warming. Private sector initiatives are also explored.

  20. Global variations of zonal mean ozone during stratospheric warming events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Randel, William J.

    1993-01-01

    Eight years of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data are examined to study zonal mean variations associated with stratospheric planetary wave (warming) events. These fluctuations are found to be nearly global in extent, with relatively large variations in the tropics, and coherent signatures reaching up to 50 deg in the opposite (summer) hemisphere. These ozone variations are a manifestation of the global circulation cells associated with stratospheric warming events; the ozone responds dynamically in the lower stratosphere to transport, and photochemically in the upper stratosphere to the circulation-induced temperature changes. The observed ozone variations in the tropics are of particular interest because transport is dominated by zonal-mean vertical motions (eddy flux divergences and mean meridional transports are negligible), and hence, substantial simplifications to the governing equations occur. The response of the atmosphere to these impulsive circulation changes provides a situation for robust estimates of the ozone-temperature sensitivity in the upper stratosphere.

  1. Health effects of global warming: Problems in assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.

    1993-06-01

    Global warming is likely to result in a variety of environmental effects ranging from impacts on species diversity, changes in population size in flora and fauna, increases in sea level and possible impacts on the primary productivity of the sea. Potential impacts on human health and welfare have included possible increases in heat related mortality, changes in the distribution of disease vectors, and possible impacts on respiratory diseases including hayfever and asthma. Most of the focus thus far is on effects which are directly related to increases in temperature, e.g., heat stress or perhaps one step removed, e.g., changes in vector distribution. Some of the more severe impacts are likely to be much less direct, e.g., increases in migration due to agricultural failure following prolonged droughts. This paper discusses two possible approaches to the study of these less-direct impacts of global warming and presents information from on-going research using each of these approaches.

  2. GIS applications to evaluate public health effects of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Regens, J.L.; Hodges, D.G.

    1996-12-31

    Modeling projections of future climatic conditions suggest changes in temperature and precipitation patterns that might induce direct adverse effects on human health by altering the extent and severity of infectious and vector-borne diseases. The incidence of mosquito-borne diseases, for example, could increase substantially in areas where temperature and relative humidity rise. The application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) offers new methodologies to evaluate the impact of global warming on changes in the incidence of infectious and vector-borne diseases. This research illustrates the potential analytical and communication uses of GIS for monitoring historical patterns of climate and human health variables and for projecting changes in these health variables with global warming.

  3. Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

    2014-12-01

    Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

  4. Global warming, sea-level rise, and coastal marsh survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cahoon, Donald R.

    1997-01-01

    Coastal wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems in the world. These wetlands at the land-ocean margin provide many direct benefits to humans, including habitat for commercially important fisheries and wildlife; storm protection; improved water quality through sediment, nutrient, and pollution removal; recreation; and aesthetic values. These valuable ecosystems will be highly vulnerable to the effects of the rapid rise in sea level predicted to occur during the next century as a result of global warming.

  5. Global warming potential for CF[sub 4

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D J; Grossman, A S

    1992-11-16

    With sufficient emissions, fluorinated gases such as CF[sub 4] could contribute significantly to the concerns about global warming because they are greenhouse gases, are chemically very inert, and have long accumulation lifetimes in the atmosphere. At this time, the only significant known source of CF[sub 4] is primary aluminum smelting (Abrahamson, 1992). While current emissions are small, additional sources could make CF[sub 4] an important contribution to climate forcing in the future.

  6. When could global warming reach 4°C?

    PubMed

    Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Hemming, Deborah L; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Sanderson, Michael G

    2011-01-13

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC's 'likely range'. PMID:21115513

  7. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

    PubMed

    Malcolm, Jay R; Liu, Canran; Neilson, Ronald P; Hansen, Lara; Hannah, Lee

    2006-04-01

    Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach, we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models, (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes, (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not, and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition, average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from <1 to 43% of the endemic biota (average 11.6%), with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates, followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions. Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates; in some scenarios, however, botspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates. Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region, Caribbean, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Southwest Australia, and Tropical Andes, where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years, estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation, supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity. PMID:16903114

  8. The impact of global warming on health and mortality.

    PubMed

    Keatinge, W R; Donaldson, G C

    2004-11-01

    Initial concern about the possible effects of global warming on infections has declined with the realization that the spread of tropical diseases is likely to be limited and controllable. However, the direct effects of heat already cause substantial numbers of deaths among vulnerable people in the summer. Action to prevent these deaths from rising is the most obvious medical challenge presented by a global rise in temperature. Strategies to prevent such deaths are in place to some extent, and they differ between the United States and Europe. Air conditioning has reduced them in the United States, and older technologies such as fans, shade, and buildings designed to keep cool on hot days have generally done so in Europe. Since the energy requirements of air conditioning accelerate global warming, a combination of the older methods, backed up by use of air conditioning when necessary, can provide the ideal solution. Despite the availability of these technologies, occasional record high temperatures still cause sharp rises in heat-related deaths as the climate warms. The most important single piece of advice at the time a heat wave strikes is that people having dangerous heat stress need immediate cooling, eg, by a cool bath. Such action at home can be more effective than transporting the patient to hospital. Meanwhile, it must not be forgotten that cold weather in winter causes-many more deaths than heat in summer, even in most subtropical regions, and measures to control cold-related deaths need to continue. PMID:15586600

  9. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  10. Sensitivity of Global Warming Potentials to the assumed background atmosphere

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Patten, K.O.

    1992-03-05

    This is the first in a series of papers in which we will examine various aspects of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) concept and the sensitivity and uncertainties associated with the GWP values derived for the 1992 updated scientific assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). One of the authors of this report (DJW) helped formulate the GWP concept for the first IPCC report in 1990. The Global Warming Potential concept was developed for that report as an attempt to fulfill the request from policymakers for a way of relating the potential effects on climate from various greenhouse gases, in much the same way as the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) concept (Wuebbles, 1981) is used in policy analyses related to concerns about the relative effects of CFCs and other compounds on stratospheric ozone destruction. We are also coauthors of the section on radiative forcing and Global Warming Potentials for the 1992 IPCC update; however, there was too little time to prepare much in the way of new research material for that report. Nonetheless, we have recognized for some time that there are a number of uncertainties and limitations associated with the definition of GWPs used in both the original and new IPCC reports. In this paper, we examine one of those uncertainties, namely, the effect of the assumed background atmospheric concentrations on the derived GWPs. Later papers will examine the sensitivity of GWPs to other uncertainties and limitations in the current concept.

  11. Energy and global warming impacts of HFC refrigerants and emerging technologies: TEWI-III

    SciTech Connect

    Sand, J.R.; Fischer, S.K.; Baxter, V.D.

    1997-06-01

    The use of hydrofluorocarbons (BFCs) which were developed as alternative refrigerants and insulating foam blowing agents to replace chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) is now being affected by scientific investigations of greenhouse warming and questions about the effects of refrigerants and blowing agents on global warming. A Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) assessment analyzes the environmental affects of these halogenated working fluids in energy consuming applications by combining a direct effect resulting from the inadvertent release of HFCs to the atmosphere with an indirect effect resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels needed to provide the energy to operate equipment using these compounds as working fluids. TEWI is a more balanced measure of environmental impact because it is not based solely on the global warming potential (GWP) of the working fluid. It also shows the environmental benefit of efficient technologies that result in less CO{sub 2} generation and eventual emission to the earth`s atmosphere. The goal of TEWI is to assess total global warming impact of all the gases released to the atmosphere, including CO{sub 2} emissions from energy conversion. Alternative chemicals and technologies have been proposed as substitutes for HFCs in the vapor-compression cycle for refrigeration and air conditioning and for polymer foams in appliance and building insulations which claim substantial environmental benefits. Among these alternatives are: (1) Hydrocarbon (HC) refrigerants and blowing agents which have zero ozone depleting potential and a negligible global warming potential, (2) CO{sub 2} as a refrigerant and blowing agent, (3) Ammonia (NH{sub 3}) vapor compression systems, (4) Absorption chiller and heat pumping cycles using ammonia/water or lithium bromide/water, and (5) Evacuated panel insulations. This paper summarizes major results and conclusions of the detailed final report on the TEWI-111 study.

  12. Signal and noise in global warming detection. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    North, G.R.

    1998-11-01

    The specific objectives of this study were the following: (1) What is the expected sampling error and bias incurred in estimation of the global average temperature from a finite number of point gauges? (2) What is the best one can do by optimally arranging N point gauges, how can one make best use of existing data at N point gauges by optimally weighting them? (3) What is a good estimation of the signal of global warming based upon simple models of the climate system? (4) How does one develop an optimal signal detection technique from the knowledge of signal and noise?

  13. Effects of Global Warming on Ancient Mammalian Communities and Their Environments

    PubMed Central

    DeSantis, Larisa R. G.; Feranec, Robert S.; MacFadden, Bruce J.

    2009-01-01

    Background Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however, long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems, including C3/C4 transitions and relative seasonality. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (∼1.9 million years ago) and Pleistocene (∼1.3 million years ago) in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity, increased C4 grass consumption, inter-faunal dietary partitioning, increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders, niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa, and differences in relative seasonality with warming. Conclusion/Significance Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (∼28°N). Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems. PMID:19492043

  14. Change of tropical cyclone heat potential in response to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Ran; Chen, Changlin; Wang, Guihua

    2016-04-01

    Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5). As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 (+4.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26°C isotherm (D26), the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26°C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary.

  15. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests

    PubMed Central

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P.

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

  16. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    PubMed

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

  17. The role of water vapor feedback in unperturbed climate variability and global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Hall, A.; Manabe, Syukuro

    1999-08-01

    To understand the role of water vapor feedback in unperturbed surface temperature variability, a version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled ocean-atmosphere model is integrated for 1,000 yr in two configurations, one with water vapor feedback and one without. To understand the role of water vapor feedback in global warming, two 500-yr integrations were also performed in which CO{sub 2} was doubled in both model configurations. The final surface global warming in the model with water vapor feedback is 3.38 C, while in the one without it is only 1.05 C. However, the model`s water vapor feedback has a larger impact on surface warming in response to a doubling of CO{sub 2} than it does on internally generated, low-frequency, global-mean surface temperature anomalies. Water vapor feedback`s strength therefore depends on the type of temperature anomaly it affects. Finally, the authors compare the local and global-mean surface temperature time series from both unperturbed variability experiments to the observed record. The experiment without water vapor feedback does not have enough global-scale variability to reproduce the magnitude of the variability in the observed global-mean record, whether or not one removes the warming trend observed over the past century. In contrast, the amount of variability in the experiment with water vapor feedback is comparable to that of the global-mean record, provided the observed warming trend is removed. Thus, the authors are unable to simulate the observed levels of variability without water vapor feedback.

  18. Winners and losers in a world with global warming: Noncooperation, altruism, and social welfare

    SciTech Connect

    Caplan, A.J.; Ellis, C.J.; Silva, E.C.D.

    1999-05-01

    In this paper, global warming is an asymmetric transboundary externality which benefits some countries or regions and harms others. Few environmental problems have captured the public`s imagination as much and attracted as much scrutiny as global warming. The general perception is that global warming is a net social bad, and that across-the-board abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is therefore desirable. Despite many interesting academic contributions, not all of the basic economics of this phenomenon have been fully worked out. The authors use a simple two-country model to analyze the effects of global warming on resource allocations, the global-warming stock, and national and global welfare.

  19. 78 FR 20632 - Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-05

    ...The EPA is announcing to the public the availability of estimated global warming potentials, as well as data and analysis submitted in support of them, for eight fluorinated heat transfer fluids. We are requesting comments on the estimated global warming potentials and the data and analysis supporting them. We are also requesting comment on the cited global warming potentials for 35 other......

  20. 80 FR 26883 - Federal Acquisition Regulation; High Global Warming Potential Hydrofluorocarbons

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2015-05-11

    ..., 25, and 52 RIN 9000-AM87 Federal Acquisition Regulation; High Global Warming Potential... President's Climate Action Plan to procure, when feasible, alternatives to high global warming potential... proposes to amend FAR part 2 by adding the new definitions of ``global warming...

  1. 79 FR 44332 - Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program: Addition of Global Warming Potentials

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2014-07-31

    ... AGENCY 40 CFR Part 98 RIN 2060-AS28 Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program: Addition of Global Warming... Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to add chemical-specific and default global warming potentials (GWPs...-HQ-OAR- 2009-0927, Addition of Global Warming Potentials. The EPA's policy is that all...

  2. 61 FR 1284 - Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Listing of Global Warming Potential for Ozone-Depleting...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    1996-01-19

    ... (60 FR 24970). To meet EPA's statutory obligation under the CAA, this listing cites the global warming... AGENCY 40 CFR Part 82 RIN 2060-AF35 Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Listing of Global Warming... the global warming potentials for ozone-depleting substances that are included as class I and class...

  3. 79 FR 73749 - Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program: Addition of Global Warming Potentials to the General Provisions...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2014-12-11

    ...: Addition of Global Warming Potentials to the General Provisions and Amendments and Confidentiality...-AR78 Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program: Addition of Global Warming Potentials to the General Provisions...- specific and default global warming potentials (GWPs) for a number of fluorinated greenhouse gases...

  4. Gas hydrate contribution to Late Permian global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majorowicz, J.; Grasby, S. E.; Safanda, J.; Beauchamp, B.

    2014-05-01

    Rapid gas hydrate release (the clathrate gun hypothesis) has been invoked as a cause for the rapid global warming and associated negative carbon isotope excursion observed during the Latest Permian Extinction (LPE). We modeled the stability of gas hydrates through a warming Middle to Late Permian world, considering three settings for methane reservoirs: 1) terrestrial hydrates, 2) hydrates on exposed continental shelves during glacial sea level drop, and 3) hydrates in deep marine settings. Model results show that terrestrial hydrates would rapidly destabilize over ?400 ky after deglaciation for moderate heatflow (40 mW/m2), and more rapidly for higher heat flow values. Exposed continental shelves would lose hydrates even more rapidly, after being flooded due to loss of ice storage on land. These two major hydrate reservoirs would thus have destabilized during the Middle to Late Permian climate warming, well prior to the LPE event. However, they may have contributed to the >2 negative C-isotopic shift during the late Middle Permian. Deep marine hydrates would have remained stable until LPE time. Rapid warming of deep marine waters during this time could have triggered destabilization of this reservoir, however given the configuration of one super continent, Pangea, hydrate bearing continental slopes would have been less extensive than modern day. This suggests that any potential gas hydrate release would have had only a minor contributing impact to the runaway greenhouse during the Latest Permian extinction.

  5. Global warming and the regions in the Middle East

    SciTech Connect

    Alvi, S.H.; Elagib, N.

    1996-12-31

    The announcement of NASA scientist James Hansen made at a United States Senate`s hearing in June 1988 about the onset of global warming ignited a whirlwind of public concern in United States and elsewhere in the world. Although the temperature had shown only a slight shift, its warming has the potential of causing environmental catastrophe. According to atmosphere scientists, the effect of higher temperatures will change rainfall patterns--some areas getting drier, some much wetter. The phenomenon of warming in the Arabian Gulf region was first reported by Alvi for Bahrain and then for Oman. In the recent investigations, the authors have found a similar warming in other regions of the Arabian Gulf and in several regions of Sudan in Africa. The paper will investigate the observed data on temperature and rainfall of Seeb in Oman, Bahrain, International Airport in Kuwait as index stations for the Arabian Gulf and Port Sudan, Khartoum and Malakal in the African Continent of Sudan. Based on various statistical methods, the study will highlight a drying of the regions from the striking increase in temperature and decline of rainfall amount. Places of such environmental behavior are regarded as desertifying regions. Following Hulme and Kelly, desertification is taken to mean land degradation in dryland regions, or the permanent decline in the potential of the land to support biological activity, and hence human welfare. The paper will also, therefore, include the aspect of desertification for the regions under consideration.

  6. Snow: a reliable indicator for global warming in the future?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobi, H.-W.

    2012-03-01

    The cryosphere consists of water in the solid form at the Earth's surface and includes, among others, snow, sea ice, glaciers and ice sheets. Since the 1990s the cryosphere and its components have often been considered as indicators of global warming because rising temperatures can enhance the melting of solid water (e.g. Barry et al 1993, Goodison and Walker 1993, Armstrong and Brun 2008). Changes in the cryosphere are often easier to recognize than a global temperature rise of a couple of degrees: many locals and tourists have hands-on experience in changes in the extent of glaciers or the duration of winter snow cover on the Eurasian and North American continents. On a more scientific basis, the last IPCC report left no doubt: the amount of snow and ice on Earth is decreasing (Lemke et al 2007). Available data showed clearly decreasing trends in the sea ice and frozen ground extent of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the global glacier mass balance. However, the trend in the snow cover extent (SCE) of the NH was much more ambiguous; a result that has since been confirmed by the online available up-to-date analysis of the SCE performed by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab (climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/). The behavior of snow is not the result of a simple cause-and-effect relationship between air temperature and snow. It is instead related to a rather complex interplay between external meteorological parameters and internal processes in the snowpack. While air temperature is of course a crucial parameter for snow and its melting, precipitation and radiation are also important. Further physical properties like snow grain size and the amount of absorbing impurities in the snow determine the fraction of absorbed radiation. While all these parameters affect the energy budget of the snowpack, each of these variables can dominate depending on the season or, more generally, on environmental conditions. As a result, the reduction in SCE in spring and summer in the NH was attributed to faster melting because of higher air temperatures, while the winter months (December to February) saw an increase in the SCE due to increased precipitation (Lemke et al >2007). Cohen et al (2012) confirmed these opposing effects in the SCE and showed that on the Eurasian continent the average SCE in October has increased by approximately 3 × 106 km2 in the last two decades; a growth of almost 40%, corresponding to roughly 1.5 times the area of Greenland. For the same period, Cohen et al (2012) found a negligible trend in the average temperatures above the continents of the NH for the winter months despite a significant increase in the annual mean temperature for the same regions. Cohen et al (2012) propose the following link between temperatures and snow: the reduced sea ice cover of the Arctic Ocean and the enhanced air temperatures in fall cause higher evaporation from the Arctic Ocean, leading to increased tropospheric moisture in the Arctic. More moisture results in more snowfall over the Eurasian continent, increasing the SCE. The increased snow cover strengthens the Siberian High, a strong anticyclonic system generally persistent between October and April. This system is strong enough to affect weather patterns in large parts of the NH, resulting in changes in the large-scale circulation of the NH (Panagiotopoulos et al 2005). As a result, outbreaks of cold Arctic air masses into the mid-latitudes are more frequent, leading to low temperatures over the eastern part of North America and Northern Eurasia. According to Cohen et al (2012), these are exactly the same regions that have experienced a cooling trend in the winter temperature over the past twenty years. While this chain of events is plausible (and some are confirmed by observations), existing climate models are not yet capable of reproducing these processes. On the contrary, Cohen et al (2012) showed that they predict a slightly decreasing SCE in October for Eurasia and an increase in winter temperatures over the continents in the NH. This is not surprising because the simulation of snow and its interactions with the atmosphere in global models is imperfect (Armstrong and Brun 2008). Most models have difficulty in simulating successfully the complex behavior of snow cover. A better representation of snow in the models is vital in order to understand the possible far-reaching consequences of changes in the SCE and its effects on the local climate and on large-scale circulations in the atmosphere to utilize snow as a reliable indicator for a changing climate. However, the SCE is only one of many possible snow parameters that can be used (Goodison and Walker 1993). Although omni-present in many regions and during many seasons, there is still much to be learned about snow and how it is linked to the global climate system. References Armstrong R L and Brun E 2008 Snow and Climate: Physical Processes, Surface Energy Exchange and Modeling (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Barry R G, Goodison B E and LeDrew E F (ed) 1993 Snow watch '92—detection strategies for snow and ice Glaciological Data Report GD-25 (Boulder, CO: World Data Center A: Glaciology (Snow and Ice)) p 273 Cohen J L, Furtado J C, Barlow M A, Alexeev V A and Cherry J E 2012 Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling Environ. Res. Lett. 7 014007 Goodison B E and Walker A E 1993 Use of snow cover derived from satellite passive microwave data as indicator for climate change Ann. Glaciol. 17 137-42 Lemke P et al 2007 Observations: changes in snow, ice and frozen ground Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Panagiotopoulos F, Shahgedanova M, Hannachi A and Stephenson D B 2005 Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: a recently declining center of action J. Clim. 18 1411-22

  7. Modification of Cirrus Clouds to Reduce Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, D. L.; Rasch, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    As far as we know, no studies have addressed the possibility of modifying cirrus clouds to reduce global warming. Here we explore this possibility and associated feasibility issues. To introduce this concept, some background information is needed. The effect of cirrus on climate can be quantified through their predicted impact on climate sensitivity, S (i.e. the equilibrium response of global- mean surface temperature to CO2 doubling) in global climate model (GCM) simulations. A recent study using an ensemble of thousands of "perturbed physics" GCM simulations found that S was most strongly influenced by the entrainment coefficient and the ice fall speed, indicating that S depends more on changes in cirrus clouds than on low-level boundary layer clouds. It may be possible to modify the ice fall speed in cirrus clouds which controls ice removal rates and affects the cirrus ice content, life cycle and coverage, as well as the upper troposphere relative humidity. The main impact of reducing the ice fall speed was an increase in longwave cloud forcing. In a different recent GCM study, we have used the mean size of the ice particle size distribution to change the representative ice fall speed, V. By decreasing V, the cirrus coverage was increased 5.5%, strongly affecting annual zonal means of cloud forcing, heating rates and temperatures in the upper troposphere. This led us to speculate that the introduction of aerosol particles into the upper troposphere (T < -40 C) that efficiently form ice crystals through heterogeneous nucleation may result in larger ice particles with higher fall speeds since the heterogeneous nuclei would outcompete the natural homogeneous freezing ice nuclei for water vapor. This would reduce longwave cloud forcing and lower surface temperatures, as described above. A third recent GCM study supports our speculation, showing that heterogeneous ice nucleation for these conditions produces larger ice crystals with higher fall velocities (relative to ice crystals formed by homogeneous nucleation). These studies and others beg the question of whether the introduction of efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei in regions of the upper troposphere normally dominated by homogeneous nucleation would reduce cirrus cloud coverage through higher ice fall speeds or would increase cirrus coverage by allowing nucleation in otherwise clear-sky regions supersaturated with respect to ice. The introduction of efficient ice nuclei might initially increase cirrus coverage in these regions, but once a new equilibrium of cirrus coverage is established, it is unclear whether cirrus coverage would be more or less than present day conditions. This question could be explored in climate simulations using microphysically advanced GCMs. Should the method appear promising, it could be applied by introducing efficient ice nuclei into the upper troposphere using commercial airliners. Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The strategy is to build-up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei in the -40 to -60 C zone so that cirrus forming by natural processes will experience these nuclei and grow larger crystals. High level winds would disperse the nucleant aerosol from the flight corridors. While there are risks of affecting the climate system in unforeseen ways, time scales in the atmosphere are relatively short, and this geoengineering experiment could be terminated at any time.

  8. Seasonal exposure to drought and air warming affects soil Collembola and mites.

    PubMed

    Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M; Gnthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4 C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length ? 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type. PMID:22905210

  9. Seasonal Exposure to Drought and Air Warming Affects Soil Collembola and Mites

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M.; Gnthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type. PMID:22905210

  10. El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

    PubMed

    Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

    2009-12-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

  11. Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?

    SciTech Connect

    Tami C. Bond; Haolin Sun

    2005-08-15

    Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. Black carbon is produced by poor combustion, from our example hard coal cooking fires for and industrial pulverized coal boilers. The authors review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. It is argued that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Results from published climate-modeling studies are synthesized to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO{sub 2} (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. It is found that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies is proposed that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during the discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement. 31 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Global warming: it's not only size that matters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegerl, Gabriele C.

    2011-09-01

    Observed and model simulated warming is particularly large in high latitudes, and hence the Arctic is often seen as the posterchild of vulnerability to global warming. However, Mahlstein et al (2011) point out that the signal of climate change is emerging locally from that of climate variability earliest in regions of low climate variability, based on climate model data, and in agreement with observations. This is because high latitude regions are not only regions of strong feedbacks that enhance the global warming signal, but also regions of substantial climate variability, driven by strong dynamics and enhanced by feedbacks (Hall 2004). Hence the spatial pattern of both observed warming and simulated warming for the 20th century shows strong warming in high latitudes, but this warming occurs against a backdrop of strong variability. Thus, the ratio of the warming to internal variability is not necessarily highest in the regions that warm fastest—and Mahlstein et al illustrate that it is actually the low-variability regions where the signal of local warming emerges first from that of climate variability. Thus, regions with strongest warming are neither the most important to diagnose that forcing changes climate, nor are they the regions which will necessarily experience the strongest impact. The importance of the signal-to-noise ratio has been known to the detection and attribution community, but has been buried in technical 'optimal fingerprinting' literature (e.g., Hasselmann 1979, Allen and Tett 1999), where it was used for an earlier detection of climate change by emphasizing aspects of the fingerprint of global warming associated with low variability in estimates of the observed warming. What, however, was not discussed was that the local signal-to-noise ratio is of interest also for local climate change: where temperatures emerge from the range visited by internal climate variability, it is reasonable to assume that changes in climate will also cause more impacts than temperatures that have occurred frequently due to internal climate variability. Determining when exactly temperatures enter unusual ranges may be done in many different ways (and the paper shows several, and more could be imagined), but the main result of first local emergence in low latitudes remains robust. A worrying factor is that the regions where the signal is expected to emerge first, or is already emerging are largely regions in Africa, parts of South and Central America, and the Maritime Continent; regions that are vulnerable to climate change for a variety of regions (see IPCC 2007), and regions which contribute generally little to global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, strong emissions of greenhouse gases occur in regions of low warming-to-variability ratio. To get even closer to the relevance of this finding for impacts, it would be interesting to place the emergence of highly unusual summer temperatures in the context not of internal variability, but in the context of variability experienced by the climate system prior to the 20th century, as, e.g. documented in palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulated in simulations of the last millennium (see Jansen et al 2007). External forcing has moved the temperature range around more strongly for some regions and in some seasons than others. For example, while reconstructions of summer temperatures in Europe appear to show small long-term variations, winter shows deep drops in temperature in the little Ice Age and a long-term increase since then (Luterbacher et al 2004), which was at least partly caused by external forcing (Hegerl et al 2011a) and therefore 'natural variability' may be different from internal variability. A further interesting question in attempts to provide a climate-based proxy for impacts of climate change is: to what extent does the rapidity of change matter, and how does it compare to trends due to natural variability? It is reasonable to assume that fast changes impact ecosystems and society more than slow, gradual ones. Also, is it really the mean seasonal temperature that counts, or should the focus change to extremes (see Hegerl et al 2011b)? Is seasonal mean exceedance of the prior temperature envelope a good and robust measure that also reflects these other, more complex diagnostics? Lots of food for thought and research! References Allen M R and Tett S F B 1999 Checking for model consistency in optimal finger printing Clim. Dyn. 15 419-34 Hall A 2004 The role of surface albedo feedback in climate J. Clim. 17 1550-68 Hasselmann K 1979 On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies Meteorology of Tropical Oceans ed D B Shaw (Bracknell: Royal Meteorological Society) pp 251-9 Hegerl G C, Luterbacher J, Gonzalez-Ruoco F, Tett S F B and Xoplaki E 2011a Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures Nature Geoscience 4 99-103 Hegerl G, Hanlon H and Beierkuhnlein C 2011b Climate science: elusive extremes Nature Geoscience 4 142-3 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed M L Parry, O F Canziani, J P Palutikof, P J van der Linden and C E Hanson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Jansen E et al 2007 Palaeoclimate Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon et al (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Luterbacher J et al 2004 European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500 Science 303 1499-503 Mahlstein I, Knutti R, Solomon S and Portmann R W 2011 Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries Environ. Res. Lett. 6 034009

  13. Current status and direction of US global warming policy

    SciTech Connect

    Gardiner, D.

    1997-12-31

    The pace and intensity of U.S. global warming efforts have been increasing over the past few years for three main reasons: (1) steady improvement in the underlying science that is in turn strengthening public support for action; (2) the likelihood that the United States will fall short of our national goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000; and (3) U.S. participation in international negotiations to address global climate change. The expansion of U.S. global warming activities can be seen at the state, federal, and international levels. At the state level, for example, a majority of states have completed greenhouse gas emissions inventories, several have undertaken analyses of mitigation options, and some are already beginning to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the federal level, all federal agencies with an interest in global warming are working together to define the likely consequences of continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions, inform the public about Such consequences, and assess the costs and benefits of different response options. Among the response options being assessed are actions to expand the use of energy efficient technologies; new controls on greenhouse gas emissions through -- for example - government standards, regulations, or emissions trading programs; and increased research and development of technologies less dependent on fossil fuels. Finally, at the international level, the United States is continuing to develop the position it will take to the climate change negotiations to be held in Japan this December. Among, other things, we have proposed enforceable emissions targets for developed countries, a strong program of reporting and compliance, new efforts by developing countries to prepare emissions inventories and mitigate emissions, and an international emissions trading program.

  14. Regional growth management policies: Toward reducing global warming at state and local levels

    SciTech Connect

    Purdie, J.

    1995-09-01

    State and local governments in the United States are accepting mandates to coordinate legislated land use and growth management planning with vigorous environmental protection and resource conservation. These mandates, implemented or planned in states with populations totaling over 100 million, will directly impact growth patterns and ultimately affect the level of atmospheric gases and particulates generated within their borders. This paper addresses the issues of growth management and land use planning at the local, state and regional levels and identifies areas impacting global warming. A review of existing systems will be presented, and recommendations will be made to improve monitoring of growth management mechanisms and organizational structures with the goal of global atmospheric improvement. The issues discussed include urban sprawl, transportation, and growth patterns as managed by policies also designed to protect environments and provide for sustainable growth. Areas for improved coordination between jurisdictions to ease global warming will also be examined.

  15. Public understanding of the politics of global warming in the news media: the hostile media approach.

    PubMed

    Kim, Kyun Soo

    2011-09-01

    This study uses the politics of global warming in the US to investigate an affective mechanism of hostile media perception and the democratic consequences of such perception, in an effort to delineate audience and journalistic barriers to stimulating urgent concern about climate change. The study confirms that partisanship played a significant role in perceptual differences with regard to media bias in an important area of science journalism--climate change. News consumers' anger perception was tested as a mediator in seeking an affective mechanism of hostile media perception. Hostile media perception has important democratic consequences in that it is positively associated with individuals' trust in news coverage of global warming and with selective media use. PMID:22164707

  16. Global scale energy budget contrast between warm and cold years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lembo, Valerio; Lionello, Piero

    2014-05-01

    This contribution analyses changes to the energy budget of the troposphere associated to global warm anomalies of the Earth surface temperature. This is important for understanding the dynamics of climate change. A phenomenological approach is adopted, comparing coldest and warmest years over the last century. Data are provided by the results of 10 simulations carried out within the ERA-20CM experiment and covering the period 1900-2010. This ensemble is forced by 10 perturbed realizations of SST fields and greenhouse gases concentration time series. Analysis considers the annual mean meridional distribution of zonal mean tropospheric and surface temperature, net downward solar radiation at top of atmosphere and Earth surface, surface heat flux (SHF), consisting of net longwave upward radiation, latent heat and sensible heat vertical fluxes, and outgoing longwave radiation at top of atmosphere (OLR). Differences of these variables between the warmest and coldest years are computed, in order to analyze how the energy budget of the atmosphere is associated to the warming the Earth surface. During warm years, it is observed that tropospheric warming occurs at all latitudes, decreasing at its top, being rather uniform but larger/smaller around the North/South Pole than at the tropics. This is consistent with the overall increase of OLR at all latitudes. Shortwave absorption in the troposphere increases, with a peak around 30 degrees north, as a result of increased net downward solar radiation at the top. The warming of the surface is associated with reduced SHF almost everywhere, particularly at higher latitudes. This combined effect might be interpreted as a reduction of solar reflection by cloud cover and an increased moisture in the lower troposphere, inhibiting evaporation and heat fluxes from the surface, and increasing downward flow of longwave radiation to the surface. Finally, the meridional distribution of residual net energy budget in the troposphere suggests an increased meridional transport toward high latitudes, as well as a more intense energy loss to the surface and to outer space

  17. Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frlicher, Thomas; Winton, Michael; Sarmiento, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have suggested that global mean surface temperature would remain approximately constant on multi-century timescales after CO2 emissions are stopped. Here we use Earth system model simulations of such a stoppage to demonstrate that in some models, surface temperature may actually increase on multi-century timescales after an initial century-long decrease. For example, global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.6C after a carbon emissions stoppage at 2-degree. This increase occurs in spite of a decline in radiative forcing that exceeds the decline in ocean heat uptakea circumstance that would otherwise be expected to lead to a decline in global temperature. The reason is that the warming effect of decreasing ocean heat uptake together with feedback effects arising in response to the geographic structure of ocean heat uptake overcompensates the cooling effect of decreasing atmospheric CO2 on multi-century timescales. Our study also reveals that equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates based on a widely used method of regressing the Earth's energy imbalance against surface temperature change are biased. Uncertainty in the magnitude of the feedback effects associated with the magnitude and geographic distribution of ocean heat uptake therefore contributes substantially to the uncertainty in allowable carbon emissions for a given multi-century warming target.

  18. Global warming: Energy efficiency is key to reduce dangerous threat

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-09-01

    A consensus is growing among scientists, policymakers and citizens that human activity is altering the Earth's climate. Humans are loading carbon dioxide, methane and other pollutants into the atmosphere through deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels. The result, scientists say: pollutants are accelerating the greenhouse effect which is raising the average global temperature. A few degree temperature increase is projected to make major changes in agriculture and many other things. A growing number of scientists believe if these pollutants are not reduced, global warming could destroy the Earth's climatic balance on which our civilization rests, causing disruptions such as heat waves, droughts, coastal flooding and a rise in sea level. Clearly, all the facts about global warming, its exact causes and repercussions on the earth's climate, are not yet in. However, one thing is certain: We are not helpless and we can act now to reduce greenhouse gases through energy efficiency and halting deforestation. While energy efficiency, itself, is not a panacea, it is both an economic opportunity and environmental necessity for out nation, and for our earth.

  19. Northern hemisphere glaciation during the globally warm early Late Pliocene.

    PubMed

    De Schepper, Stijn; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Naafs, B David A; Van Renterghem, Cédéric; Hennissen, Jan; Head, Martin J; Louwye, Stephen; Fabian, Karl

    2013-01-01

    The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ∼3.0 million years ago) is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS) M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ∼3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Here we propose a conceptual model for the glaciation and deglaciation of MIS M2 based on geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect. Our records show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the continental ice sheets during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Sea level drop during this glaciation halted the inflow of Pacific water to the Atlantic via the Central American Seaway, allowing the build-up of a Caribbean Warm Pool. Once this warm pool was large enough, the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current system was reinvigorated, leading to significant northward heat transport that terminated the glaciation. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the North Atlantic Current was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century. PMID:24349081

  20. Northern Hemisphere Glaciation during the Globally Warm Early Late Pliocene

    PubMed Central

    De Schepper, Stijn; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Naafs, B. David A; Van Renterghem, Cédéric; Hennissen, Jan; Head, Martin J.; Louwye, Stephen; Fabian, Karl

    2013-01-01

    The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ∼3.0 million years ago) is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS) M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ∼3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Here we propose a conceptual model for the glaciation and deglaciation of MIS M2 based on geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect. Our records show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the continental ice sheets during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Sea level drop during this glaciation halted the inflow of Pacific water to the Atlantic via the Central American Seaway, allowing the build-up of a Caribbean Warm Pool. Once this warm pool was large enough, the Gulf Stream–North Atlantic Current system was reinvigorated, leading to significant northward heat transport that terminated the glaciation. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the North Atlantic Current was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century. PMID:24349081

  1. Global Warming and Glaciers Melting at Fjords in Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coelho, Pablo

    2015-04-01

    This paper presents a discussion on the validation or not of a likely paradigm about the melting of polar glaciers and their direct impact on increasing ocean levels. Physico-chemical properties of ocean waters, as well as anomalies in the thermal behavior of water are used as providers of this discussion using fjords of Greenland as study area. This text seeks to infer the relationship between the most recent developments in global warming, specifically dealing with the melting of glaciers located in fjords in the eastern part of Greenland, increasing the water temperature in ocean currents and changes in sea levels. We emphasize the importance of the correlation of the water physico-chemical characteristics in these changes perceived in the studied environment. Greenland is defined by convention as the widest oceanic island in the world. In its fjords formed in the last glaciation of the Quaternary period, basically made of ice mountains with entries to the sea, there has been melts that are discussed in this work. At first, global warming and the melting of glaciers with a consequent rise in sea levels are presented almost as an axiom. This paper seeks to address the conclusions arising from this type of research according the basic laws of physics and chemistry, related to the behavior of water in their states (typically solid and liquid). The ultimate goal of this work glimpsed through some inferences and validation of water behavior in the ice condition and in its liquid state, a broader view with regard to the findings applied to the relationship between global warming and ice melting processes. Will be observed some water anomalies in the variation between its liquid and solid states to attempt a better understanding of the phenomena occurring in this area of interest as well as their possible impacts. It is noteworthy the fact that the water does not behave thermally as most liquids, with very specific consequences in relation to the variation between its liquid and solid states because of the temperature variation. We infer, therefore, that the increased amount of water in the sea because of the melts, will not necessarily increase the volume or the level of the oceans. Keywords: Melting Glaciers. Levels of Ocean Waters. Global Warming.

  2. Global warming mitigation potential of biogas plants in India.

    PubMed

    Pathak, H; Jain, N; Bhatia, A; Mohanty, S; Gupta, Navindu

    2009-10-01

    Biogas technology, besides supplying energy and manure, provides an excellent opportunity for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and reducing global warming through substituting firewood for cooking, kerosene for lighting and cooking and chemical fertilizers. A study was undertaken to calculate (1) global warming mitigation potential (GMP) and thereby earning carbon credit of a family size biogas plant in India, (2) GMP of the existing and target biogas plants in the country and (3) atmospheric pollution reduction by a family size biogas plant. The GMP of a family size biogas plant was 9.7 t CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and with the current price of US $10 t( - 1) CO(2) equiv., carbon credit of US $97 year( - 1) could be earned from such reduction in greenhouse gas emission under the clean development mechanism (CDM). A family size biogas plant substitutes 316 L of kerosene, 5,535 kg firewood and 4,400 kg cattle dung cake as fuels which will reduce emissions of NOx, SO(2), CO and volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere by 16.4, 11.3, 987.0 and 69.7 kg year( - 1), respectively. Presently 3.83 million biogas plants are operating in the country, which can mitigate global warming by 37 Mt CO(2) equiv. year( - 1). Government of India has a target of installing 12.34 million biogas plants by 2010. This target has a GMP of 120 Mt CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and US $1,197 million as carbon credit under the CDM. However, if all the collectible cattle dung (225 Mt) produced in the country is used, 51.2 million family size biogas plants can be supported which will have a GMP of 496 Mt of CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and can earn US $4,968 million as carbon credit. The reduction in global warming should encourage policy makers to promote biogas technology to combat climate change and integration of carbon revenues will help the farmers to develop biogas as a profitable activity. PMID:18843544

  3. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

    PubMed Central

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U.; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A.; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C−1 and 1.2 m °C−1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C−1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales. PMID:23858443

  4. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    PubMed

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales. PMID:23858443

  5. Changes in Soil Water Storage under Global Warming in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, W. Y.; Lan, C. W.; Lo, M. H.; Reager, J. T., II; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in global hydrological cycle play an important role in the Earth's climate system. In this study, we use simulations from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) model archives to estimate changes in seasonal cycle of terrestrial soil water under global warming (with the RCP8.5 scenario). Our preliminary results show that future global warming is leading to declines in snow fall and snow amount in most models and a lack of snow melt during spring and summer results in less recharge of soil moisture, which makes soil water less during the dry season over most of the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, decreases in the soil ice also play an important role in modifying the seasonal variations of soil water via affecting the infiltration and runoff rates, which might cause the soil dry out faster. The increase in annual cycle of the global soil water under global warming found in this study has important implications for water management and water security under climate changes due to an increase in the water distribution heterogeneity.

  6. Global warming, drought events, and GPP performance (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yi, C.; Jensen, K.; Wei, S.; Hendrey, G.

    2013-12-01

    The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest decade recorded since the start of modern measurements in 1850, according to a new report on July 3, 2013 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Global warming may now be exacerbating droughts in the world, and leading to more reduction in crop production, plant growth and hence carbon fixation, and further warming climate. How do we quantify the relationship between drought event and ecosystem performance? Here, we developed a method called 'perfect-deficit approach' and a local dryness index based on eddy-flux measurements. We applied these concepts and mathematical method to remote sensing observations (MODIS) to examine the world ecosystem performance in the first decade of 21st century and identify the associated climate extremes. The initial results show that the deficits of ecosystem performances in lower latitudes were caused mainly by drought events, while at high latitudes cold/warm events also exert substantial influences on ecosystem performances, particularly in spring season. Acknowledgements This research was financially supported by PSC-CUNY Award (PSC-CUNY-ENHC-44-83)

  7. 80 FR 81328 - Submission for OMB Review; High Global Warming Potential Hydrofluorocarbons

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2015-12-29

    ...; High Global Warming Potential Hydrofluorocarbons AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD), General Services... Warming Potential Hydrofluorocarbons. A notice was published in the Federal Register at 80 FR 26883, on...-0191; High Global Warming Potential Hydrofluorocarbons.'' Follow the instructions provided at...

  8. Global warming and prairie wetlands: potential consequences for waterfowl habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poiani, Karen A.; Johnson, W. Carter

    1991-01-01

    The accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere is expected to warm the earth's climate at an unprecedented rate (Ramanathan 1988, Schneider 1989). If the climate models are correct, within 100 years the earth will not only be warmer than it has been during the past million years, but the change will have occurred more rapidly than any on record. Many profound changes in the earth's environment are expected, including rising sea level, increasing aridity in continental interiors, and melting permafrost. Ecosystems are expected to respond variously to a rapidly changing climate. Tree ranges in eastern North American are expected to shift northward, and seed dispersal may not be adequate to maintain current diversity (Cohn 1989, Johnson and Webb 1989). In coastal wetlands, rising sea level from melting icecaps and thermal expansion could flood salt-grass marshes and generally reduce the size and productivity of the intertidal zone (Peters and Darling 1985). As yet, little attention has been given to the possible effects of climatic warming on inland prairie wetland ecosystems. These wetlands, located in the glaciated portion of the North American Great Plains (Figure 1), constitute the single most important breeding area for waterfowl on this continent (Hubbard 1988). This region annually produces 50-80% of the continent's total duck production (Batt et al. 1989). These marshes also support a variety of other wildlife, including many species of nongame birds, muskrat, and mink (Kantrud et al. 1989a). Prairie wetlands are relatively shallow, water-holding depressions that vary in size, water permanence, and water chemistry. Permanence types include temporary ponds (typically holding water for a few weeks in the springs), seasonal ponds (holding water from spring until early summer), semipermanent ponds (holding water throughout the growing season during most years), and large permanent lakes (Stewart and Kantrud 1971). Refilling usually occurs in spring from precipitation and runoff from melting snow on frozen or saturated soils (Figure 2). Annual water levels fluctuate widely due to climate variability in the Great Plains (Borchert 1950, Kantrud et al. 1989b). Climate affects the quality of habitat for breeding waterfowl by controlling regional water conditions--water depth, areal extent, and length of wet/dry cycles (Cowardin et al. 1988)--and vegetation patterns such as the cover ration (the ratio of emergent plant cover to open water). With increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate models project warmer and, in some cases, drier conditions for the northern Great Plains (Karl et al. 1991, Manabe and Wetherald 1986, Mitchell 1983, Rind and Lebedeff 1984). In general, a warmer, drier climate could lower waterfowl production directly by increasing the frequency of dry basins and indirectly by producing less favorable cover rations (i.e., heavy emergent cover with few or no open-water areas). The possibility of diminished waterfowl production in a greenhouse climate comes at a time when waterfowl numbers have sharply declined for other reasons (Johnson and Shaffer 1987). Breeding habitat continues to be lost or altered by agriculture, grazing, burning, mowing, sedimentation, and drainage (Kantrud et al. 1989b). For example, it has been estimated that 60% of the wetland area in North Dakota has been drained (Tiner 1984). Pesticides entering wetlands from adjacent agricultural fields have been destructive to aquatic invertebrate populations and have significantly lowered duckling survival (Grue et al. 1988). In this article, we discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns, and waterflow habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model. The extent to which intensive management of the waterfowl resource will be needed in the future strongly depends on whether a changing climate exacerbates the current problem of waterfowl decline. Should this occur, efforts outlined the recent North American Waterfowl Management Plan between the United States and Canada to reduce the current decline (Patterson and Nelson 1988) may need to be redoubled in coming years.

  9. Quantifying Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to Global Warming Pattern Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, X.; Zhang, G. J.; Cai, M.

    2013-12-01

    The ';';climate feedback-response analysis method'' (CFRAM) was applied to the NCAR CCSM3.0 simulation to analyze the strength and spatial distribution of climate feedbacks and to quantify their contributions to global and regional surface temperature changes in response to a doubling of CO2. Instead of analyzing the climate sensitivity, the CFRAM directly attributes the temperature change to individual radiative and non-radiative feedbacks. The radiative feedback decomposition is based on hourly model output rather than monthly mean data that are commonly used in climate feedback analysis. This gives a more accurate quantification of the cloud and albedo feedbacks. The process-based decomposition of non-radiative feedback enables us to understand the roles of GCM physical and dynamic processes in climate change. The pattern correlation, the centered root-mean-square (RMS) difference and the ratio of variations (represented by standard deviations) between the partial surface temperature change due to each feedback process and the total surface temperature change in CCSM3.0 simulation are examined to quantify the roles of each feedback process in the global warming pattern formation. The contributions of climate feedbacks to the regional warming are also discussed.

  10. Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frlicher, Thomas Lukas; Winton, Michael; Sarmiento, Jorge Louis

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that global mean surface temperature would remain approximately constant on multi-century timescales after CO2 emissions are stopped. Here we use Earth system model simulations of such a stoppage to demonstrate that in some models, surface temperature may actually increase on multi-century timescales after an initial century-long decrease. This occurs in spite of a decline in radiative forcing that exceeds the decline in ocean heat uptake--a circumstance that would otherwise be expected to lead to a decline in global temperature. The reason is that the warming effect of decreasing ocean heat uptake together with feedback effects arising in response to the geographic structure of ocean heat uptake overcompensates the cooling effect of decreasing atmospheric CO2 on multi-century timescales. Our study also reveals that equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates based on a widely used method of regressing the Earth's energy imbalance against surface temperature change are biased. Uncertainty in the magnitude of the feedback effects associated with the magnitude and geographic distribution of ocean heat uptake therefore contributes substantially to the uncertainty in allowable carbon emissions for a given multi-century warming target.

  11. Stratocumulus Cloud-Feedback to an Idealized Global Warming Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Roode, S. R.; Dal Gesso, S.; van der Dussen, J.; Jonker, H. J.; Siebesma, P.

    2014-12-01

    The response of stratocumulus clouds to global warming as predicted by earth system models is uncertain. Recently, simulations of low clouds in the Hadley cell with single-column model versions of climate models were performed as part of the CGILS project. The results show a divergent behavior in the sign of the low cloud radiative feedback under an idealized global warming scenario. To understand these different model outcomes steady-state solutions of the stratocumulus-topped boundary layer are studied with a mixed-layer model (MLM) in a phase space consisting of the lower tropospheric stability and the free tropospheric specific humidity. In one set of experiments the sea surface temperature (SST) is increased. In case the entrainment rate is kept constant to the control case value it can be shown analytically from the MLM equations that the cloud liquid water path, the sensible and latent heat fluxes will increase. By contrast, if the entrainment rate is allowed to respond to the perturbed SST, both the LWP and the sensible heat flux may decrease. The latent heat flux will increase even further by a drying of the boundary layer due to an enhanced entrainment. Similar experiments were performed with five single column model versions of Earth System Models and the Dutch Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulation model DALES. The findings strongly suggest that in a future climate changes in the free tropospheric specific humidity are key in controlling the response of stratocumulus cloud layers.

  12. Global warming and oil spills could cool shoaling reefs

    SciTech Connect

    Cubit, J.D. )

    1990-01-09

    High water temperature generated on reef flats have been implicated as one of the factors determining the ecological patterns and structural morphologies peculiar to shoaling reefs. In approximately ten years of water temperature and water level data from a shoaling reef flat at Punta Galeta (Caribbean Panama), water temperatures were dependent on water levels. Water temperatures ranged up to 38[degrees]C when daily minimum water depths over the reef crest were < 12 cm, but never exceeded 30[degrees]C when the minimum water levels were > 12 cm. If conservative predictions of sea level rise caused by global warming are correct, normal vertical accretion rates of the reef flat could keep pace with rising sea level until the middle of the next century; after that the occurrence of high water temperatures would be rapidly reduced. However, damage from an oil spill at Punta Galeta in 1986 was concentrated at the seaward margin of the reef flat, where biogenic processes control the overall vertical accretion of the reef platform. By slowing rates of vertical accretion, oil impact could potentially accelerate the effects of global warming on the ecology and morphology of the reef.

  13. Subarctic warming: Results from the global treeline project

    SciTech Connect

    Siren, G.; Shen, S.

    1996-12-31

    The authors reported last year at the 6th Global Warming Science and Policy Conference (GW6), April 3--6, 1995, San Francisco USA, the Global Treeline Project (BLECSCO) has definitively established the northward movement in the 20th century of the northernmost limit for pine trees in Finland. this movement is due to climate warming. The Finnish Forest Research Institute has been working on this problem between 1951 and 1996. The authors have observed over half a century the movements of the coniferous treeline. The subarctic pine tree line is used as a permanent bioindicator of climate change. The dynamic pine tree line in the subarctic of Finland serves as a reliable indicator of expected climate change in the future as well as of climatic fluctuations in the past. The FFRI has tracked comprehensively seed year frequencies, performed dendrochronological studies, fire studies, and ecological studies since the abundant seed year of 1948--50 to the present, and discovered that climate change has favored the northward movement of the pine limit. The authors report the detailed scientific methodology, data, and conclusions.

  14. States' roles in reducing global warming: Achieving international goals

    SciTech Connect

    Feldman, D.L.; Wilt, C.A. . Energy, Environment, and Resources Center)

    1994-12-01

    National governments hold major responsibility for reducing global warming. However, some of the most important efforts to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases must occur at sub-national levels. In federal systems composed of states, as well as unitary systems that impose national policies upon regions, smaller administrative units are involved in energy conservation and end-use efficiency programs, CFC reduction activities, and transportation planning. States and regions also provide greenhouse gas emissions and other basic environmental data needed to comply with international agreements. The authors argue that, for some issues states are better able than national governments to develop innovative, flexible greenhouse gas policies that are administratively feasible and publicly acceptable. International agreements and policy declarations and institution-building efforts acknowledge the importance of institution-building efforts acknowledge the importance of bottom-up approaches that rely on regionally-based, sustainable development activities to reduce global warming. They describe how national energy and pollution-prevention policies in the US invest states with specific responsibilities for reducing greenhouse gases or participating in adaptation strategies.

  15. The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Part 1, Progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1992-12-01

    During the past three years we have conducted several studies using models and a combination of satellite data, in situ meteorological and oceanic data, and paleoclimate reconstructions, under the DoE program, ``Quantifying the Link Between Change in Radiative Balance and Atmospheric Temperature``. Our goals were to investigate effects of global cloudiness variations on global climate and their implications for cloud feedback and continue development and application of NYU transient climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by both the clouds and oceans. Our original research plan emphasized the use of cloud, surface temperature and ocean data sets interpreted by focused climate/ocean models to develop a cloud radiative forcing scenario for the past 100 years and to assess the transient climate response; to narrow key uncertainties in the system; and to identify those aspects of the climate system most likely to be affected by greenhouse warming over short, medium and long time scales.

  16. Independent Confirmation of Global Land Warming without the Use of Station Temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Compo, Gilbert; Sardeshmukh, Prashant; Whitaker, Jeffrey; Brohan, Philip; Jones, Philip; McColl, Chesley

    2013-04-01

    Confidence in estimates of 20th century land warming is limited by known issues with near-surface air temperature observations from land stations. Station siting, site moves, instrument changes, changing observing practices, urban effects, land cover, land use variations, and statistical processing have all been hypothesized as affecting the trends presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others. Confidence in the observed rise of global land temperatures since the 1950s is important in assessments of anthropogenic effects on climate, so any artifacts in the observed decadal and centennial variations associated with these issues could have important consequences for scientific understanding and climate policy. Here we test the station temperature observations using a completely different approach to investigate global 20th century land warming. Specifically, we ignore all land temperature observations and instead infer the temperatures from global observations of subdaily barometric pressure, monthly HadISST1.1 sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration, and of CO2, solar and volcanic radiative forcing agents using a physically-based data assimilation system called the 20th Century Reanalysis. This independent dataset reproduces both annual variations and centennial trends found in the observational near-surface air temperature datasets, thus demonstrating the robustness of previous conclusions based on them regarding global warming.

  17. Indirect Global Warming Potentials of Halons Using Atmospheric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Youn, D.; Patten, K. O.; Wuebbles, D. J.

    2007-05-01

    Emission of bromochlorofluorocarbons, or Halons, results in stratospheric ozone depletion. This leads to cooling of the climate system in the opposite direction to direct warming contribution of the Halons as greenhouse gases. This cooling is a key indirect effect of Halons on radiative forcing or climate. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is a relative index used to compare the climate impact of an emitted greenhouse gas, relative to an equal amount of carbon dioxide. Until now, indirect GWPs have been calculated based on the concept of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC), which oversimplifies the complex processes in the atmosphere. As a step towards obtaining indirect GWPs through a more robust approach, 2-D and 3-D global chemical transport models (CTM) were used as the computational tool to derive more realistic ozone changes caused by pulse perturbation of Halons at the surface. Indirect GWPs of Halon-1211 and -1301 for a 100-year time horizon were explicitly calculated based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) 2-D global CTM and radiative transport model (RTM) and the 3-D CTM, MOZART-3.1. The 2-D and 3-D model simulations show acceptable temporal variations in the atmosphere as well as derived lifetimes and direct GWP values of the Halons. The 2-D model-based indirect GWPs for a 100-year horizon are -16,294 for Halon-1211 and -33,648 for Halon-1301. 3-D indirect GWP for Halon-1211 is -18,216. The indirect GWPs for Halon-1211 presented here are much smaller than previous published results using the previous simplified appraoch.

  18. The zonal mean circulation response to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palipane, E.; Lu, J.; Solomon, A. L.

    2013-12-01

    One of the robust changes in the global circulation due to global warming is the poleward shift of the midlatitude jet stream. The mechanisms for the circulation response have been a topic of interest with previous studies using barotropic models attributing these changes to extratropical causes (e.g. Chen et al 2007, Kidston et al 2011). Recent studies considering the diffusive nature of the eddies attributes the shift to the resultant down-gradient eddy PV flux (Butler et al 2011), however Chen et al (2012) and Lu et al (2013) argue that the change in the effective diffusivity is more essential than the change in PV gradient itself. To understand the dynamical mechanisms for the shift, we perform large-ensemble transient simulations using NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) with a sudden switchon of the climate forcings of interest, in particular, a uniform 4K SST perturbation. The finite-amplitude wave activity budget in baroclinic flow developed by Nakamura and collaborators (Nakamura and Zhu, 2010; Nakamura and Solomon, 2010) is used in our diagnostic study to look into how the different dynamical processes constrain the eddy PV flux, which controls the eddy-driven circulation. Similar to the idealized studies of Chen et al (2012) we identified the source for the sudden onset of the momentum forcing for the poleward shift as an anomalous divergence of EP flux resulting from a reduction of effective diffusivity and associated dissipation of wave activities. This study enhance our confidence in the earlier proposition that the changing statistics of wave breakings and the associated mixing of PV are crucial to the shift of the zonal mean circulation patterns. This result may have important bearings on the changing statistics of the precipitation extreme in the subtropics and mid-latitudes under global warming.

  19. Climate extremes and ecosystem productivity in global warming simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; Wehner, M. F.; Collins, W.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystem responses to present-day droughts and heat-waves are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts on ecosystems, under the assumption that the temperature above which vegetation experiences heat and drought stress is invariant with changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration. Understanding how the impacts of temperature extremes on ecosystems can change with climate change is essential for correctly evaluating and developing Earth System Models (ESMs). The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) historical and future (RCP8.5) climate predictions were analyzed in this study to illustrate non-stationarity of climate impacts on ecosystems, as evident by changes in the distribution of Gross Primary Production (GPP) as a function of temperature between future and historical climates. These changes consist of (1) a uniform shift in the GPP distribution toward warmer temperatures between future and historical climates, and (2) a proportional increase in GPP at all temperatures, consistent with CO2 fertilization. The temperature at which GPP has a local maximum within a given climate increases with global warming and closely tracks the change in mean temperature for each ecosystem. This maximum GPP temperature can be conceptualized as a stable equilibrium determined by the temperature at which an increase in plant water stress is compensated by a decrease in light stress (decreasing cloud cover) with increasing temperature. Temperature relative to the temperature of maximum GPP is proposed as an improved measure of climate extremes more relevant to ecosystem productivity than absolute temperature. The percentage change in GPP attributed to changes in relative temperature extremes is up to 3% per K (decrease in GPP), and reflects both an increase in the frequency of climate extremes in global warming scenarios and the change in temperature criteria for negative climate impacts on ecosystem productivity. Temperature at GPP maximum as a function of the growing season average temperature, for each ecosystem type. Lengths of crosshairs indicate the standard error of the CMIP5 ensemble average. Both future and historical averages are shown (the temperature of GPP maximum increases monotonically with growing season average temperature between future and historical simulations).

  20. Interpretation of simulated global warming using a simple model

    SciTech Connect

    Watterson, I.G.

    2000-01-01

    A simple energy balance model with two parameters, an effective heat capacity and an effective climate sensitivity, is used to interpret six GCM simulations of greenhouse gas-induced global warming. By allowing the parameters to vary in time, the model can be accurately calibrated for each run. It is found that the sensitivity can be approximated as a constant in each case. However, the effective heat capacity clearly varies, and it is important that the energy equation is formulated appropriately, and thus unlike many such models. For simulations with linear forcing and from a cold start, the capacity is in each case close to that of a homogeneous ocean with depth initially 200 m, but increasing some 4.3 m each year, irrespective of the sensitivity and forcing growth rate. Analytic solutions for t his linear capacity function are derived, and these reproduce the GCM runs well, even for cases where the forcing is stabilized after a century or so. The formation of a subsurface maximum in the mean ocean temperature anomaly is a significant feature of such cases. A simple model for a GCM run with a realistic forcing scenario starting from 1,880 is constructed using component results for forcing segments. Given this, an estimate of the cold start error of a simulation of the warming due to forcing after the present would be given by the negative of the temperature drift of the anomaly due to the past forcing. The simple model can evidently be used to give an indication of likely warming curves, at lest for this range of scenarios and GCM sensitivities.

  1. Voluminous Icelandic Basaltic Eruptions Appear To Cause Abrupt Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. L.

    2011-12-01

    Beginning on June 21, 1783, Laki volcano in southern Iceland erupted 14.7 km3 basalt, ejecting 24 Mt SO_{2} into the stratosphere where it was blown eastward and northward and 98 Mt into the troposphere where the jet stream transported it southeastward to Europe. The "dry fog" observed in Europe with an estimated mean concentration of 60 ppbv SO2, raised daytime temperatures as much as 3.3^{o}C, causing the warmest July in England from 1659 when measurements began until 1983. SO2, tropospheric O_{3}, NO2, and fine ash absorb ultraviolet energy from the sun that causes the bonds between and within their atoms to oscillate at 47 times higher frequency than the bonds in CO_{2} absorbing infrared radiation. Temperature is proportional to the kinetic energy of these oscillations, i.e. the frequency squared. Thus these gases are raised to much higher temperatures than greenhouse gases. The Stefan-Boltzmann law says that radiation from these molecules is a constant times temperature raised to the fourth power. As a result, SO2 and ash radiate far more energy back to earth than CO_{2}, causing warming. Another way to look at the energy involved shows that 15 ppbv SO2 in the 0.3-0.42 μm wavelength band absorbs as much solar energy per unit volume as 388,000 ppbv CO_{2} absorbs infrared energy in the 12.7-17.5 μm band. Basaltic volcanoes such as Laki emit 10 to 100 times more SO2 than more evolved magmas and are less explosive, leaving most of the SO_{2} in the troposphere. All 14 Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) sudden warmings between 46 and 11 ka are contemporaneous with the highest levels of sulfate in the GISP2 drill hole near Summit Greenland. These DO events typically warmed the northern hemisphere out of the ice age within decades, but as volcanism waned, ocean temperatures cooled the world back into an ice age within centuries. The world finally exited the ice age when voluminous volcanism continued from 11.6 to 9.6 ka. Basaltic table mountains or tuyas in Iceland document major sub-glacial eruptions that occurred during DO 0, A, and 1 (11.6, 13.1, and 14.6 ka) and similar but less well dated activity at least over the past million years. Massive melting of a thick ice sheet by volcanoes would decrease overburden pressure on the magma chambers, potentially increasing volcanism. Continued basaltic eruptions over decades enhanced by such a feedback c8ould explain why the intervals between DO events (1300 to 8800 years) are more random than cyclic and the evidence for sudden influxes of fresh water into the North Atlantic documented during DO events. Concentrations of sulfate in Greenland were as high from 1928 to 1985 as during the largest DO event. Trace element analysis shows this sulfate came from smoke stacks in northern Russia, Europe, and central North America. Observed levels of SO2, NO_{x}, tropospheric O$_{3} and black carbon are more than sufficient to have been the primary cause of 20th century global warming. Efforts to reduce acid rain by reducing emissions of these pollutants "accidentally" slowed global warming by 1998. Mean global surface temperatures have remained high but have not increased since then.

  2. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    PubMed

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

  3. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

  4. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast. Part A The Greenhouse Effect.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrews, Bill

    1993-01-01

    Provides information necessary for an interdisciplinary analysis of the greenhouse effect, enhanced greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and scientific study of global warming for students grades 4-12. Several activity ideas accompany the information. (LZ)

  5. 60 FR 52357 - Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Listing of Global Warming Potential for Ozone-Depleting...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    1995-10-06

    ... AGENCY 40 CFR Part 82 Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Listing of Global Warming Potential for Ozone... global warming potentials for ozone- depleting substances that are included as class I and class II.... To meet EPA's statutory obligation under the CAA, this proposed listing cites the global...

  6. Is there a stratospheric radiative feedback in global warming simulations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Yi; Zhang, Minghong; Xia, Yan; Hu, Yongyun; Son, Seok-Woo

    2016-01-01

    The radiative impacts of the stratosphere in global warming simulations are investigated using abrupt CO2 quadrupling experiments of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), with a focus on stratospheric temperature and water vapor. It is found that the stratospheric temperature change has a robust bullhorn-like zonal-mean pattern due to a strengthening of the stratospheric overturning circulation. This temperature change modifies the zonal mean top-of-the-atmosphere energy balance, but the compensation of the regional effects leads to an insignificant global-mean radiative feedback (-0.02 ± 0.04 W m-2 K-1). The stratospheric water vapor concentration generally increases, which leads to a weak positive global-mean radiative feedback (0.02 ± 0.01 W m-2 K-1). The stratospheric moistening is related to mixing of elevated upper-tropospheric humidity, and, to a lesser extent, to change in tropical tropopause temperature. Our results indicate that the strength of the stratospheric water vapor feedback is noticeably larger in high-top models than in low-top ones. The results here indicate that although its radiative impact as a forcing adjustment is significant, the stratosphere makes a minor contribution to the overall climate feedback in CMIP5 models.

  7. A Robust Response of the Hadley Circulation to Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2014-01-01

    Tropical rainfall is expected to increase in a warmer climate. Yet, recent studies have inferred that the Hadley Circulation (HC), which is primarily driven by latent heating from tropical rainfall, is weakened under global warming. Here, we show evidence of a robust intensification of the HC from analyses of 33 CMIP5 model projections under a scenario of 1 per year CO2 emission increase. The intensification is manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze, characterized by a pronounced increase in the zonal mean ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere, a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone and enhanced rainfall in the deep tropics. These changes occur in conjunction with a rise in the region of maximum outflow of the HC, with accelerated meridional mass outflow in the uppermost branch of the HC away from the equator, coupled to a weakened inflow in the return branches of the HC in the lower troposphere.

  8. A set of experiments to understand global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouquelle, Veronique; Bauwens, Anne; De Bont, Adele; Kivits, Sandrine; Marbaix, Philippe

    2014-05-01

    We have developed a set of experiments addressed to pupils from the age of 14 to teach the basic causes and effects of global warming. Through ten experiments conducted in turns by the pupils themselves, they will understand the physics, biology and chemistry of the main issues linked to the increase in greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. More specifically, the hand-made, low-cost material, allow the students to discover and experiment the science of the greenhouse effect, sea level rise, ocean circulation, ocean acidification, species relocation and extinction, differential heating according to the albedo, carbon cycle, and photosynthesis. Technical notes give background theory input. All the experiments can easily be reproduced.

  9. Global warming due to increasing absorbed solar radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.

    2009-04-01

    Global climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are examined for the top-of-atmosphere radiation changes as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases build up from 1950 to 2100. There is an increase in net radiation absorbed, but not in ways commonly assumed. While there is a large increase in the greenhouse effect from increasing greenhouse gases and water vapor (as a feedback), this is offset to a large degree by a decreasing greenhouse effect from reducing cloud cover and increasing radiative emissions from higher temperatures. Instead the main warming from an energy budget standpoint comes from increases in absorbed solar radiation that stem directly from the decreasing cloud amounts. These findings underscore the need to ascertain the credibility of the model changes, especially insofar as changes in clouds are concerned.

  10. Global warming will bring new fungal diseases for mammals.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Solache, Monica A; Casadevall, Arturo

    2010-04-01

    Fungi are major pathogens of plants, other fungi, rotifers, insects, and amphibians, but relatively few cause disease in mammals. Fungi became important human pathogens only in the late 20th century, primarily in hosts with impaired immunity as a consequence of medical interventions or HIV infection. The relatively high resistance of mammals has been attributed to a combination of a complex immune system and endothermy. Mammals maintain high body temperatures relative to environmental temperatures, creating a thermally restrictive ambient for the majority of fungi. According to this view, protection given by endothermy requires a temperature gradient between those of mammals and the environment. We hypothesize that global warming will increase the prevalence of fungal diseases in mammals by two mechanisms: (i) increasing the geographic range of currently pathogenic species and (ii) selecting for adaptive thermotolerance for species with significant pathogenic potential but currently not pathogenic by virtue of being restricted by mammalian temperatures. PMID:20689745

  11. More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haarsma, Reindert; Hazeleger, Wilco; Severijns, Camiel; de Vries, Hylke; Ster, Andreas; Bintanja, Richard; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van den Brink, Henk; Baatsen, Michiel

    2014-05-01

    Using a very high resolution global climate model (~25 km grid size) with prescribed sea surface temperatures we have investigated the change in the occurrence of hurricane-force (> 32.6 m/s) storms over Western Europe due to climate change. The results show a large increase during early autumn (Aug-Oct). The majority of these storms originate as a tropical cyclone. Using SST sensitivity experiments we have tested the hypothesis that the increase is due to the rise in Atlantic tropical SST thereby extending eastwards the breeding ground of tropical cyclones, yielding more frequent and intense hurricanes following pathways directed towards Europe. En route they transform into extra-tropical depressions and re-intensify after merging with the mid-latitude baroclinic unstable flow. Detailed analysis indicates that the development of a warm seclusion is the main mechanism for the re-intensification and that the hurricane winds are caused by a sting jet.

  12. Geoengineering the Climate: Approaches to Counterbalancing Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacCracken, M. C.

    2005-12-01

    For the past two hundred years, the inadvertent release of carbon dioxide and other radiatively active gases and aerosols, particularly as a result of combustion of fossil fuels and changes in land cover, have been contributing to global climate change. Global warming to date is approaching 1°C, and this is being accompanied by reduced sea ice, rising sea level, shifting ecosystems and more. Rather than sharply curtailing use of fossil fuels in order to reduce CO2 emissions and eventually eliminate the net human influence on global climate, a number of approaches have been suggested that are intended to advertently modify the climate in a manner to counter-balance the warming influence of greenhouse gas emissions. One general type of approach is carbon sequestration, which focuses on capturing the CO2 and then sequestering it underground or in the ocean. This can be done at the source of emission, by pulling the CO2 out of the atmosphere through some chemical process, or by enhancing the natural processes that remove CO2 from the atmosphere, for example by fertilizing the oceans with iron. A second general approach to geoengineering the climate is to lower the warming influence of the incoming solar radiation by an amount equivalent to the energy captured by the CO2-induced enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Proposals have been made to do this by locating a deflector at the Earth-Sun Lagrange point, lofting many thousands of near-Earth mirrors, injecting aerosols into the stratosphere, or by increasing the surface albedo. A third general approach is to alter natural Earth system processes in ways that would counterbalance the effects of the warming. Among suggested approaches are constructing dams to block various ocean passages, oceanic films to limit evaporation and water vapor feedback, and even, at small scale, to insulate mountain glaciers to prevent melting. Each of these approaches has its advantages, ranging from simplicity to reversibility, and disadvantages, ranging from costs for implementation to associated inadvertent negative environmental consequences. Unless implemented as only a bridging effort, geoengineering would require diversion of substantial, and even growing, resources from the effort to move away from reliance on fossil fuels. Because the lifetime of the excess CO2 in the atmosphere is so long, such efforts would generally need to be maintained for centuries by future generations to avoid a relatively rapid increase in global average temperature, even after emissions of CO2 had eventually been halted. In that such approaches are also fraught with uncertainties, there has been very little study of the details of how such approaches might be pursued and of their overall advertent and inadvertent consequences, leaving the area open to ongoing consideration of sometimes rather speculative possibilities.

  13. Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Childers, Katelin

    2015-04-01

    An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have significant policy implications by affecting food prices and supplies.

  14. Does flower phenology mirror the slowdown of global warming?

    PubMed

    Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

    2015-06-01

    Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology - which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change - respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901-2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method) lead to distinctly different results and most recent data should be integrated in order not to over- or underestimate future phenological changes. PMID:26078862

  15. Does flower phenology mirror the slowdown of global warming?

    PubMed Central

    Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

    2015-01-01

    Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology – which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change – respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901–2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method) lead to distinctly different results and most recent data should be integrated in order not to over- or underestimate future phenological changes. PMID:26078862

  16. Predicting the global warming potential of agro-ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehuger, S.; Gabrielle, B.; Larmanou, E.; Laville, P.; Cellier, P.; Loubet, B.

    2007-04-01

    Nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane are the main biogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate thus requires a capacity to predict the net exchanges of these gases in an integrated manner, as related to environmental conditions and crop management. Here, we used two year-round data sets from two intensively-monitored cropping systems in northern France to test the ability of the biophysical crop model CERES-EGC to simulate GHG exchanges at the plot-scale. The experiments involved maize and rapeseed crops on a loam and rendzina soils, respectively. The model was subsequently extrapolated to predict CO2 and N2O fluxes over an entire crop rotation. Indirect emissions (IE) arising from the production of agricultural inputs and from cropping operations were also added to the final GWP. One experimental site (involving a wheat-maize-barley rotation on a loamy soil) was a net source of GHG with a GWP of 350 kg CO2-C eq ha-1 yr-1, of which 75% were due to IE and 25% to direct N2O emissions. The other site (involving an oilseed rape-wheat-barley rotation on a rendzina) was a net sink of GHG for -250 kg CO2-C eq ha-1 yr-1, mainly due to a higher predicted C sequestration potential and C return from crops. Such modelling approach makes it possible to test various agronomic management scenarios, in order to design productive agro-ecosystems with low global warming impact.

  17. Good enough tools for global warming policy making.

    PubMed

    Socolow, R H; Lam, S H

    2007-04-15

    We present a simple analysis of the global warming problem caused by the emissions of CO2 (a major greenhouse gas) into the atmosphere resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. We provide quantitative tools which enable policymakers and interested citizens to explore the following issues central to the global warming problem. (i) At what rate are we permitted to continue to emit CO2 after the global average atmospheric concentration has 'stabilized' at some chosen target level? The answer here provides the magnitude of the effort, measured by the necessary total reduction of today's global (annual) emissions rate to achieve stabilization. We shall see that stabilized emissions rates for all interesting stabilized concentration levels are much lower than the current emissions rate, but these small finite values are very important. (ii) Across how many years can we spread the total effort to reduce the annual CO2 emissions rate from its current high value to the above-mentioned low and stabilized target value? The answer here provides the time-scale of the total mitigation effort for any chosen atmospheric concentration target level. We confirm the common understanding that targets below a doubling of the pre-industrial concentration create great pressure to produce action immediately, while targets above double the pre-industrial level can tolerate longer periods of inaction. (iii) How much harder is the future mitigation effort, if we do not do our share of the job now? Is it a good idea to overshoot a stabilization target? The quantitative answers here provide the penalty of procrastination. For example, the mitigation task to avoid doubling the pre-industrial level is a problem that can be addressed gradually, over a period extending more than a century, if started immediately, but procrastination can turn the effort into a much more urgent task that extends over only a few decades. We also find that overshooting target levels is a bad idea. The quality of public discourse on this subject could be much enhanced if ball-park quantitative answers to these questions were more widely known. PMID:17272240

  18. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-01-01

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599

  19. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    PubMed Central

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

  20. Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming

    PubMed Central

    La Sorte, Frank A.; Jetz, Walter

    2010-01-01

    Mountains, especially in the tropics, harbour a unique and large portion of the world's biodiversity. Their geographical isolation, limited range size and unique environmental adaptations make montane species potentially the most threatened under impeding climate change. Here, we provide a global baseline assessment of geographical range contractions and extinction risk of high-elevation specialists in a future warmer world. We consider three dispersal scenarios for simulated species and for the world's 1009 montane bird species. Under constrained vertical dispersal (VD), species with narrow vertical distributions are strongly impacted; at least a third of montane bird diversity is severely threatened. In a scenario of unconstrained VD, the location and structure of mountain systems emerge as a strong driver of extinction risk. Even unconstrained lateral movements offer little improvement to the fate of montane species in the Afrotropics, Australasia and Nearctic. Our results demonstrate the particular roles that the geography of species richness, the spatial structure of lateral and particularly vertical range extents and the specific geography of mountain systems have in determining the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change. Our findings confirm the outstanding levels of biotic perturbation and extinction risk that mountain systems are likely to experience under global warming and highlight the need for additional knowledge on species' vertical distributions, dispersal and adaptive capacities. PMID:20534610

  1. Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of observed extreme precipitation events using record statistics. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking daily rainfall events has significantly increased in the global mean. This increase leads to an average of 12% more rainfall records over 1981-2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of rainfall records peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26% chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only. Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall records can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, rising temperatures have significantly contributed to the observed increase in rainfall records afterwards.

  2. An improved 20-km AGCM for global warming experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ose, T.; Mizuta, R.; Yoshimura, H.; Murakami, H.; Endo, H.; Matsueda, M.; Kitoh, A.

    2010-12-01

    There are increasing demands for simulations by high-resolution climate models, which can provide ore detail and localized information about the climate change by global warming. In the high-resolution climate models, not only individual phenomena are simulated in fine scale, but their climatological states and variances also have to be simulated well. We have focused on this issue and developed MRI/JMA 20-km AGCM (Mizuta et al., 2006). Here, we have introduced a new cumulus parameterization scheme for improvements of the model, and made time-slice experiments for present-day and the end of 21th century climates. The new model improves in simulating heavy monthly-mean precipitation around tropical Western Pacific, tropical precipitation variability, global distribution of tropical cyclones and their strength, seasonal march of East Asian summer monsoon, inter-annual variability of tropical precipitation, blocking in the Pacific. The improvements of climatology are confirmed numerically with Taylor Diagram. A preliminary result on the future experiment indicates that the fraction of strong tropical cyclones is increasing in the end of 21C experiment. The output of the experiments will be open as one of CMIP5 experiments.

  3. Ozone depletion and global warming potentials of CF3I

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, S.; Burkholder, J.B.; Ravishankara, A.R.; Garcia, R.R. |

    1994-10-01

    Laboratory measurements of the infrared and near-ultraviolet absorption characteristics of CF3I (a potentially useful substitute for halons) are presented. Using these data together with a detailed photochemical model, it is shown that the lifetime of this gas in the sunlit atmosphere is less than a day. The chemistry of iodine in the stratosphere is evaluated, and it is shown that any iodine that reaches the stratosphere will be very effective for ozone destruction there. However, the extremely short lifetime of CF3I greatly limits its transport to the stratosphere when released at the surface, especially at midlatitudes, and the total anthropogenic surface release of CF3I is likely to be far less than that of natural iodocarbons such as CH3I on a global basis. It is highly probable that the steady-state ozone depletion potential (ODP) of CF3I for surface releases is less than 0.008 and more likely below 0.0001. Measured infrared absorption data are also combined with the lifetime to show that the 20-year global warming potential (GWP) of this gas is likely to be very small, less than 5. Therefore, this study suggests that neither the ODP nor the GWP of this gas represent significant obstacles to its use as a replacement for halons.

  4. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

    PubMed

    Shiogama, H; Stone, D; Emori, S; Takahashi, K; Mori, S; Maeda, A; Ishizaki, Y; Allen, M R

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

  5. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  6. Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming.

    PubMed

    La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

    2010-11-22

    Mountains, especially in the tropics, harbour a unique and large portion of the world's biodiversity. Their geographical isolation, limited range size and unique environmental adaptations make montane species potentially the most threatened under impeding climate change. Here, we provide a global baseline assessment of geographical range contractions and extinction risk of high-elevation specialists in a future warmer world. We consider three dispersal scenarios for simulated species and for the world's 1009 montane bird species. Under constrained vertical dispersal (VD), species with narrow vertical distributions are strongly impacted; at least a third of montane bird diversity is severely threatened. In a scenario of unconstrained VD, the location and structure of mountain systems emerge as a strong driver of extinction risk. Even unconstrained lateral movements offer little improvement to the fate of montane species in the Afrotropics, Australasia and Nearctic. Our results demonstrate the particular roles that the geography of species richness, the spatial structure of lateral and particularly vertical range extents and the specific geography of mountain systems have in determining the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change. Our findings confirm the outstanding levels of biotic perturbation and extinction risk that mountain systems are likely to experience under global warming and highlight the need for additional knowledge on species' vertical distributions, dispersal and adaptive capacities. PMID:20534610

  7. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity influenced by irrigation, tillage, crop rotation, and nitrogen fertilization

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Little information exists about sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) affected by management practices to account for net emissions from agroecosystems. We evaluated the effects of irrigation, tillage, crop rotation, and N fertilization on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas...

  8. Warming, CO2, and nitrogen deposition interactively affect a plant-pollinator mutualism.

    PubMed

    Hoover, Shelley E R; Ladley, Jenny J; Shchepetkina, Anastasia A; Tisch, Maggie; Gieseg, Steven P; Tylianakis, Jason M

    2012-03-01

    Environmental changes threaten plant-pollinator mutualisms and their critical ecosystem service. Drivers such as land use, invasions and climate change can affect pollinator diversity or species encounter rates. However, nitrogen deposition, climate warming and CO(2) enrichment could interact to disrupt this crucial mutualism by altering plant chemistry in ways that alter floral attractiveness or even nutritional rewards for pollinators. Using a pumpkin model system, we show that these drivers non-additively affect flower morphology, phenology, flower sex ratios and nectar chemistry (sugar and amino acids), thereby altering the attractiveness of nectar to bumble bee pollinators and reducing worker longevity. Alarmingly, bees were attracted to, and consumed more, nectar from a treatment that reduced their survival by 22%. Thus, three of the five major drivers of global environmental change have previously unknown interactive effects on plant-pollinator mutualisms that could not be predicted from studies of individual drivers in isolation. PMID:22221802

  9. A unified sea-level response function to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkelmann, Ricarda; Mengel, Matthias; Reese, Ronja; Levermann, Anders

    2015-04-01

    Linear response functions provide an alternative to process-based models to project future sea-level rise. They are designed to capture the sea-level response to a certain forcing in a comprehensive manner without relying on the full understanding but comprising all processes involved. Here, we propose one unified sea-level response function to global warming as a synthesis of different response functions of the major contributors: oceanic thermal expansion, ice loss from mountain glaciers as well as ice loss from the two ice-sheets on Greenland and Antarctica both through changes in the surface mass balance and dynamic discharge. Except for surface mass balance changes of the ice sheets which occur instantaneously, each response function is inherently time-dependent and accounts for the fact that past climate change will continue to influence sea-level rise in the future. The proposed functions separately estimate the contributions from the main sea-level components on a centennial time scale. The validity of the approach is assessed by comparing the sea-level estimates obtained via the response functions to observations as well as projections from comprehensive models. Total sea level rise and the observed contributions in the past decades are reasonably well reproduced by our approach. Provided that the underlying dynamic mechanisms do not undergo a qualitative change within the 21st century, the response functions found for the individual components can therefore be merged into a single response function in order to project global sea-level rise for a given global mean temperature anomaly.

  10. Permafrost and infrastructure in the usa Basin (Northeast European Russia): possible impacts of global warming.

    PubMed

    Mazhitova, Galina; Karstkarel, Nanka; Oberman, Naum; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Kuhry, Peter

    2004-08-01

    The relationship between permafrost conditions and the distribution of infrastructure in the Usa Basin, Northeast European Russia, is analyzed. About 75% of the Basin is underlain by permafrost terrain with various degrees of continuity (isolated patches to continuous permafrost). The region has a high level of urban and industrial development (e.g., towns, coal mines, hydrocarbon extraction sites, railway, pipelines). GIS-analyses indicate that about 60% of all infrastructure is located in the 'high risk' permafrost area, here defined as the zones of isolated to discontinuous permafrost (3-90% coverage) with 'warm' ground temperatures (0 to -2 degrees C). Ground monitoring, aerial photo interpretation, and permafrost modeling suggest a differential response to future global warming. Most of the permafrost-affected terrain will likely start to thaw within a few decades to a century. This forecast poses serious challenges to permafrost engineering and calls for long-term investments in adequate infrastructure that will pay back overtime. PMID:15387061

  11. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    PubMed Central

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  12. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    PubMed

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  13. Global warming and the potential spread of vector-borne diseases

    SciTech Connect

    Patz, J.

    1996-12-31

    Climatic factors influence many vector-borne infectious diseases, in addition to demographic, biological, and ecological determinants. The United Nation`s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates an unprecedented global rise of 2.0 C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the spread of many serious infectious diseases, including malaria and dengue fever. Global warming would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the mosquito`s geographic range, increasing reproductive and biting rates, and shortening pathogen incubation period. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability and sea level rise could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. A review of this literature, as well as preliminary data from ongoing studies will be presented.

  14. Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

  15. Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

  16. Increases in the annual range of soil water storage at northern middle and high latitudes under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Wen-Ying; Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.

    2015-05-01

    Soil water storage is a fundamental signal in the land hydrological cycle and changes in soil moisture can affect regional climate. In this study, we used simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives to investigate changes in the annual range of soil water storage under global warming at northern middle and high latitudes. Results show that future warming could lead to significant declines in snowfall, and a corresponding lack of snowmelt water recharge to the soil, which makes soil water less available during spring and summer. Conversely, more precipitation as rainfall results in higher recharge to soil water during its accumulating season. Thus, the wettest month of soil water gets wetter, and the driest month gets drier, resulting in an increase of the annual range and suggesting that stronger heterogeneity in global water distribution (changing extremes) could occur under global warming; this has implications for water management and water security under a changing climate.

  17. Using Interactive Technology to Support Students' Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Varma, Keisha; Linn, Marcia C.

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we examine middle school students' understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming. We designed and refined a technology-enhanced curriculum module called "Global Warming: Virtual Earth". In the module activities, students conduct virtual experiments with a visualization of the greenhouse effect. They analyze data and draw

  18. Senior Secondary Indian Students' Views about Global Warming, and Their Implications for Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chhokar, Kiran; Dua, Shweta; Taylor, Neil; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2012-01-01

    For individuals to make informed lifestyle choices that may help to reduce global warming, they need some understanding of this phenomenon and the factors that contribute to it. However, there is a "gap" between knowledge about global warming and willingness to take personal action. So, although education may be effective in enhancing student…

  19. Using Interactive Technology to Support Students' Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Varma, Keisha; Linn, Marcia C.

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we examine middle school students' understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming. We designed and refined a technology-enhanced curriculum module called "Global Warming: Virtual Earth". In the module activities, students conduct virtual experiments with a visualization of the greenhouse effect. They analyze data and draw…

  20. A New Type of Debate for Global Warming and Scientific Literacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gautier, Catherine

    2012-01-01

    Expanding on some ideas introduced in the paper by Albe and Gombert (2012) "Students' communication, argumentation and knowledge in a citizen' conference on global warming", I explore two issues relevant to their work: global warming (GW) as a socioscientific controversy and scientific literacy in regards to climate change science. For the first…

  1. Metaphors of Primary School Students Relating to the Concept of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dogru, Mustafa; Sarac, Esra

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to reveal the metaphors of primary school students (n = 362) relating to the concept of global warming. Data collected by completing the expression of "global warming is like..., because..." of the students were analysed by use of qualitative and quantitative data analysis techniques. According to findings of…

  2. Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 1. Students' Beliefs and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Using survey methodology, students' beliefs, and willingness to act, about 16 specific actions related to global warming are compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those actions. In general there was a disparity between…

  3. Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 2. Potential Effectiveness of Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    In an earlier paper (Skamp, Boyes, & Stanisstreet, 2009b), students' beliefs and willingness to act in relation to 16 specific actions related to global warming were compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those actions.…

  4. CO2 [Carbon Dioxide] Diet for a Greenhouse Planet: A Citizen's Guide for Slowing Global Warming.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeCicco, John; And Others

    This guide discusses the global warming issue and offers a plan to facilitate a decrease in the emissions of the major greenhouse gases in the United States, including those under the control of individual citizens. A letter from the organization's president describes its involvement with the global warming issue. A brief overview presented in the…

  5. The Understandings of Global Warming and Learning Styles: A Phenomenographic Analysis of Prospective Primary School Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Demirkaya, Hilmi

    2008-01-01

    In this study, statements by prospective primary school teachers such as "I think the word global warming ..." or "I think the term global warming means ..." were analyzed by using qualitative phenomenographic research methods. 142 female (48.3%) and 152 male (51.7%) primary school teacher candidates (n = 294) participated in the study. Moreover,

  6. 79 FR 77391 - Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program: Addition of Global Warming Potentials to the General Provisions...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2014-12-24

    ... AGENCY 40 CFR Part 98 RIN 2060-AR78 Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program: Addition of Global Warming... December 11, 2014 (79 FR 73750). The final rule amends the general provisions of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule to establish chemical-specific and default global warming potentials (GWPs) for a number...

  7. Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 2. Potential Effectiveness of Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    In an earlier paper (Skamp, Boyes, & Stanisstreet, 2009b), students' beliefs and willingness to act in relation to 16 specific actions related to global warming were compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those actions.

  8. Metaphors of Primary School Students Relating to the Concept of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dogru, Mustafa; Sarac, Esra

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to reveal the metaphors of primary school students (n = 362) relating to the concept of global warming. Data collected by completing the expression of "global warming is like..., because..." of the students were analysed by use of qualitative and quantitative data analysis techniques. According to findings of

  9. A New Type of Debate for Global Warming and Scientific Literacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gautier, Catherine

    2012-01-01

    Expanding on some ideas introduced in the paper by Albe and Gombert (2012) "Students' communication, argumentation and knowledge in a citizen' conference on global warming", I explore two issues relevant to their work: global warming (GW) as a socioscientific controversy and scientific literacy in regards to climate change science. For the first

  10. Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 1. Students' Beliefs and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Using survey methodology, students' beliefs, and willingness to act, about 16 specific actions related to global warming are compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those actions. In general there was a disparity between

  11. Presenting Global Warming and Evolution as Public Health Issues to Encourage Acceptance of Scientific Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stover, Shawn K.; McArthur, Laurence B.; Mabry, Michelle L.

    2013-01-01

    Although evidence supporting anthropogenic global warming and evolution by natural selection is considerable, the public does not embrace these concepts. The current study explores the hypothesis that individuals will become more receptive to scientific viewpoints if evidence for evolution and implications of global warming are presented as issues…

  12. The Understandings of Global Warming and Learning Styles: A Phenomenographic Analysis of Prospective Primary School Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Demirkaya, Hilmi

    2008-01-01

    In this study, statements by prospective primary school teachers such as "I think the word global warming ..." or "I think the term global warming means ..." were analyzed by using qualitative phenomenographic research methods. 142 female (48.3%) and 152 male (51.7%) primary school teacher candidates (n = 294) participated in the study. Moreover,…

  13. Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just-world beliefs.

    PubMed

    Feinberg, Matthew; Willer, Robb

    2011-01-01

    Though scientific evidence for the existence of global warming continues to mount, in the United States and other countries belief in global warming has stagnated or even decreased in recent years. One possible explanation for this pattern is that information about the potentially dire consequences of global warming threatens deeply held beliefs that the world is just, orderly, and stable. Individuals overcome this threat by denying or discounting the existence of global warming, and this process ultimately results in decreased willingness to counteract climate change. Two experiments provide support for this explanation of the dynamics of belief in global warming, suggesting that less dire messaging could be more effective for promoting public understanding of climate-change research. PMID:21148457

  14. Do disease cycles follow changes in weather? Researchers ponder global warming`s effect on the carriers of human illness

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, K.S.

    1996-07-01

    Two years ago, Mother Nature one-upped an Institute of Medicine (IOM) committee big time. In 1991, the committee had wracked its collective brains to come up with a plausible epidemic scenario for a report on disease emergence. The team finally settled on a potential southern US outbreak of yellow fever, a well-known African viral disease carried by mosquitoes. The idea was realistic, if not particularly imaginative. Yellow fever is an old problem. Shortly after the report on microbe-induced epidemics was released, Mother Nature displayed tremendous creativity. In the spring of 1993, a mysterious virus began killing young people in the Southwest. The culprit turned out to be a previously unrecognized strain of hantavirus, which causes a deadly respiratory disease. Emerging from its natural host, the common deer mouse, the hantavirus strain affected at least 131 people. Half died. Today, emerging viruses have shocked the public and sent scientists searching for causes of epidemics and factors that determine how serious disease outbreaks might be be. One factor gaining attention climate. To learn how global warming might affect mosquitoes, mice and other microbe carriers, biologists are studying diseases within an environmental context. This article discusses the work in this area and some of the results, speculations, and future areas of interest.

  15. Warming and altered precipitation affect litter decomposition and nitrogen dynamics in a mixed-grass prairie

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Luo, Y.; Xu, X.; Li, D.; Niu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Litter decomposition and nitrogen dynamics are important processes in ecosystems and how they respond to climate changes is a global concern. In order to explore the effects of warming and altered precipitation on litter decomposition and nitrogen dynamics, we conducted a field decomposition experiment with warming (+3C) and altered precipitation (half and double) in a mixed-grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA, using litter bags with dominant C3 and C4 grasses since June, 2012. Litter bags were collected every month in the first six months and subsequently every three month thereafter. Remaining litter biomass as well as element concentration were measured in the lab. Warming significantly decreased the litter decomposition rate (k) by 25.4% for C3 grasses and 25.0% for C4 grasses. Doubled precipitation significantly increased the litter decomposition rate by 23.3% for C3 grasses and 30.1% for C4 grasses while half precipitation showed no significant effects. Soil temperature and soil moisture, controlled by warming and altered precipitation, are found to be the most important factors in regulating litter decomposition rate. Warming also decreased N concentration in C3 grasses while doubled precipitation increased N concentration in C4 grasses after one year of field decomposition. During that time, N concentration showed an average increase of 99.6% in C3 grass while only 68.1% in C4 grass. Other elements such as P and K were not much affected by these treatments although there were significant differences between C3 and C4 grasses. Our results suggest that climate change has significant impact on litter decomposition rate, which could influence the carbon balance of the ecosystem. Nutrient dynamics, especially nitrogen, were shown to be specific to plant types under altered climatic conditions. Our results show that conclusion derived from single-factor climate change experiments should be treated with caution due to interactive effects of warming with altered precipitation and differential responses of C3 and C4 plants.

  16. Can global warming make Indian monsoon weather less predictable?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mani, Neena Joseph; Suhas, E.; Goswami, B. N.

    2009-04-01

    Reliable medium range prediction of monsoon weather is crucial for disaster preparedness. Weather in tropics, controlled by fast growing convective instabilities is, however, intrinsically less predictable than that in extra-tropics. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme rain events in the tropics in the backdrop of global warming has a potential for further decreasing the potential predictability of the tropical weather. Using nonlinear dynamical techniques on gridded daily rainfall data over India for 104 years (1901-2004), here we show that the deterministic predictability of monsoon weather over central India in the latest quarter of the period has indeed decreased significantly compared to that in the earlier three quarters. The decrease of initial error doubling time from approximately 3.0 days to 1.5 days is consistent with higher frequency of extreme events and increased potential instability of the atmosphere in the recent quarter. To overcome the increased difficulty in predicting monsoon weather, significant increase in efforts to improve models, observations and enhancement of computing power would be required.

  17. Valuation of mountain glaciation response on global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Ananicheva, M.D.; Davidovich, N.V.

    1997-12-31

    Quantitative estimates of main climatic parameters, influencing the glacier regime (summer air temperature and annual solid precipitation), and glaciologic characteristics (mass balance components, equilibrium line altitude and rate of air temperature at this height), received on the basis of the scenario for a climate development according to R. Wetherald and S. Manabe (1982) are submitted. The possible reaction of mountain glaciation on global warming is considered for two mountain countries: South-eastern Alaska and Pamir-Alay (Central Asia). In given paper we have tried to evaluate changes of the mountain glaciation regime for a time of CO{sub 2} doubling in the atmosphere, basing on the scenario of climate development and modern statistical relationships between climatic and glaciologic parameters. The GCM scenario of R. Wetherald and C. Manabe (GFDL model) which is made with respect of mountain territories is in the basis our calculations. As initial materials we used data of long-term observations and the maps of World Atlas of Snow and Ice Resources (WASIR).

  18. Global warming---The role for nuclear power

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, J.E. Jr.; Fulkerson, W. )

    1989-01-01

    Nuclear power is currently making an important contribution to our energy requirements. It provides 17% of the world's electricity today --- almost 20% in the US. Reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over the next 30 to 50 years sufficiently to address the issue of global warming can only be accomplished by a combination of much improved energy efficiency, substantial growth in use of nuclear power, and substantial growth in use of renewable energy. This paper discusses new initiatives in the major nuclear technologies (LWR, HTGR, LMR) which are emerging from a fundamental reexamination of nuclear power in response to the challenges and opportunities in the 21st century. To fulfill its role, nuclear power must gain worldwide acceptance as a viable energy option. The use of modern technology and passive'' safety features in next-generation nuclear power plants offers the potential to simplify their design and operation, enhance their safety, and reduce the cost of electricity. With such improvements, we believe nuclear power can regain public confidence and make a significant contribution to our energy future. 24 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  19. Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Krupke, Christian H.; White, Michael A.; Alexander, Corinne E.

    2008-10-01

    It has been conjectured that global warming will increase the prevalence of insect pests in many agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we quantitatively assess four of the key pests of maize, one of the most important systems in North American grain production. Using empirically generated estimates of pest overwintering thresholds and degree-day requirements, along with climate change projections from a high-resolution climate model, we project potential future ranges for each of these pests in the United States. Our analysis suggests the possibility of increased winter survival and greater degree-day accumulations for each of the pests surveyed. We find that relaxed cold limitation could expand the range of all four pest taxa, including a substantial range expansion in the case of corn earworm (H. zea), a migratory, cold-intolerant pest. Because the corn earworm is a cosmopolitan pest that has shown resistance to insecticides, our results suggest that this expansion could also threaten other crops, including those in high-value areas of the western United States. Because managing significant additional pressure from this suite of established pests would require additional pest management inputs, the projected decreases in cold limitation and increases in heat accumulation have the potential to significantly alter the pest management landscape for North American maize production. Further, these range expansions could have substantial economic impacts through increased seed and insecticide costs, decreased yields, and the downstream effects of changes in crop yield variability.

  20. Perfluorodecalin: global warming potential and first detection in the atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shine, Keith P.; Gohar, Laila K.; Hurley, Michael D.; Marston, George; Martin, Damian; Simmonds, Peter G.; Wallington, Timothy J.; Watkins, Matt

    Perfluorodecalin (C 10F 18) has a range of medical uses that have led to small releases. Recently, it has been proposed as a carrier of vaccines, which could lead to significantly larger emissions. Since its emissions are controlled under the Kyoto Protocol, it is important that values for the global warming potential (GWP) are available. For a 50:50 mixture of the two isomers of perfluorodecalin, laboratory measurements, supplemented by theoretical calculations, give an integrated absorption cross-section of 3.91×10 -16 cm 2 molecule -1 cm -1 over the spectral region 0-1500 cm -1; calculations yield a radiative efficiency of 0.56 W m -2 ppbv -1 and a 100-year GWP, relative to carbon dioxide, of 7200 assuming a lifetime of 1000 years. We report the first atmospheric measurements of perfluorodecalin, at Bristol, UK and Mace Head, Ireland, where volume mixing ratios are about 1.5×10 -15. At these concentrations, it makes a trivial contribution to climate change, but on a per molecule basis it is a potent greenhouse gas, indicating the need for careful assessment of its possible future usage.

  1. Is increased Nuclear Energy a practical response to Global Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, Jeanne

    2007-05-01

    With the threat of global warming there has been renewed interest in nuclear energy as a carbon-free energy source. There are currently 15 nuclear power plants planned for completion in the U.S. by 2014. In the last 30 years, however, investment and public support for nuclear energy has been minimal. Some factors that led to this loss of interest - high economic costs, risk of accident and radiation exposure, and the challenges of storing nuclear waste - have been analyzed in several recent publications. Comparing the costs and risks of nuclear energy to the benefits in reduced carbon emissions is the goal of this report. Coal plants contribute the most carbon dioxide of all types of power plants. The method of this study is a direct comparison of coal plants and nuclear plants in four areas: the current cost per kWh, the predicted annual cost for health issues, the statistically predicted deaths, and the clean-up costs assuming each facility is as ``green'' as possible. A normalized cost/risk value is then calculated for each plant type. Discussion for how these values are likely to vary is included. To cite this abstract, use the following reference: http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2007.NWS07.C1.11

  2. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shongwe, M. E.

    2010-01-01

    Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often interpolated or extrapolated to give an indication of the likelihood of a certain event within a given period or interval. Under changing climatic conditions, the statistical properties of climate extremes are also changing. It is an important scientific goal to predict how the properties of extreme events change. To achieve this goal, observational and model studies aimed at revealing important features are a necessary prerequisite. Notable progress has been made in understanding mechanisms that influence climate variability and extremes in many parts of the globe including Europe. However, some of the recently observed unprecedented extremes cannot be fully explained from the already identified forcing factors. A better understanding of why these extreme events occur and their sensitivity to certain reinforcing and/or competing factors is useful. Understanding their basic form as well as their temporal variability is also vital and can contribute to global scientific efforts directed at advancing climate prediction capabilities, particularly making skilful forecasts and realistic projections of extremes. In this thesis temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe and Africa, respectively, are investigated. Emphasis is placed on the mechanisms underlying the occurrence of the extremes, their predictability and their likely response to global warming. The focus is on some selected seasons when extremes typically occur. An atmospheric energy budget analysis for the record-breaking European Autumn 2006 event has been carried out with the goal to identify the sources of energy for the extreme event. Net radiational heating is compared to surface turbulent fluxes of energy and dynamic horizontal advection of heat. There is clear evidence that the central North Atlantic Ocean was the major source of energy for the Autumn 2006 extreme event. Within Europe, anomalously high atmospheric water-vapor loading played a significant role through its strong greenhouse effect which resulted in an increase of downwelling infrared flux to the surface. Potential influences and connections between boreal snow cover during the melt season (February--April) and near-surface temperature in the spring season are established. Large amounts of snow act as a precursor to cold spring seasons by altering the coupling between the land and the overlying air through a modification of the surface energy and hydrological processes. In operational numerical models, a snow signal is found to provide some seasonal forecast skill for cold spring seasons in Europe. Changes in the intensity of droughts and floods in Africa in response to global warming are investigated and compared with changes in mean precipitation simulated by an ensemble of climate models selected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4) set. The model simulations are objectively combined using a Bayesian weighting procedure. In southern Africa south of about 15° S, the most robust climate-change signal is a shortening of the main rainfall season. This arises from a delayed onset of seasonal rainfall associated with a reduction in lower-tropospheric moisture advection from the southwestern Indian Ocean. The semi-arid areas closer to the Kalahari desert are projected to become drier, while the wet areas are projected to become wetter. East Africa is projected to get wet in the future climate, much wetter than other regions within the same latitudinal belt. The zonal asymmetry in tropical precipitation increase is associated with a shift towards positive Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM)-like events via an alteration in the structure of the Eastern Hemisphere Walker circulation.

  3. Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming

    PubMed Central

    Koven, Charles D.; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

    2011-01-01

    Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41–70 Tg CH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent. PMID:21852573

  4. Cool Roofs to Save Money and Delay Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2006-04-01

    White roofs, and now cool-colored roofs, with a high reflectivity or `albedo' have a long history (best known around the Mediterranean) of keeping buildings and cities cool. In modern times, cool roofs have been shown to reduce air conditioning (a-c) demand and slow the formation of ozone (smog). Studies establishing a typical 10% reduction in a-c demand and electricity savings due to white roofs in California (CA) resulted in the 2005 CA new building energy efficiency standard prescribing that low-slope roofs be white, but exempting sloping roofs for aesthetic reasons. The advent (thanks to physicists' efforts) of inexpensive colored pigments with high albedo has led to 2008 CA standards requiring that even sloping roofs be cool. Here, I show that cooling the planet by reducing urban albedo through white and other cool roofs is a direct effect, much larger and immediate than the 2nd-order cooling from reduced CO2 from reduced a-c use. I then investigate widespread deployment of cool roof in major tropical and temperate cities, which cover 2% of global land area and have a proportionately higher albedo impact due to lower latitude. Here, cool roofs and cooler pavements can raise urban albedo by 10%. This directly drops the global average temperature by ˜0.05 /deg C. Though small compared to a likely 3 /deg C rise by 2060, an immediate drop of 0.05 /deg C represents a reprieve in global warming of 1 year, and represents avoiding a year's current annual world emissions of CO2, i.e. 25 GT(CO2). At a trading price of 25/tCO2, this is worth ˜625B. Cooling the planet also could save annually hundreds of billions on a-c electric bills. Finally I suggest policies to increase cool roof deployment, for example, developed world Kyoto signatories could use its CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) for cool roof programs in developing countries.

  5. Hypogean carabid beetles as indicators of global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandmayr, Pietro; Giorgi, Filippo; Casale, Achille; Colombetta, Giorgio; Mariotti, Laura; Vigna Taglianti, Augusto; Weber, Friedrich; Pizzolotto, Roberto

    2013-12-01

    Climate change has been shown to impact the geographical and altitudinal distribution of animals and plants, and to especially affect range-restricted polar and mountaintop species. However, little is known about the impact on the relict lineages of cave animals. Ground beetles (carabids) show a wide variety of evolutionary pathways, from soil-surface (epigean) predatory habits to life in caves and in other subterranean (hypogean) compartments. We reconstructed an unprecedented set of species/time accumulation curves of the largest carabid genera in Europe, selected by their degree of ‘underground’ adaptation, from true epigean predators to eyeless highly specialized hypogean beetles. The data show that in recent periods an unexpectedly large number of new cave species were found lying in well established European hotspots; the first peak of new species, especially in the most evolved underground taxa, occurred in the 1920-30s and a second burst after the 70s. Temperature data show large warming rates in both periods, suggesting that the temperature increase in the past century might have induced cave species to expand their habitats into large well-aired cavities and superficial underground compartments, where they can be easily sampled. An alternative hypothesis, based on increased sampling intensity, is less supported by available datasets.

  6. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

    PubMed Central

    Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate. PMID:26293204

  7. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

    2015-08-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  8. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

    PubMed

    Grandey, B S; Wang, C

    2015-01-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate. PMID:26293204

  9. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ˜50 y to ˜20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ˜60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  10. Global warming prolongs the thermal stratification of dimictic lake Mondsee.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blatterer, Hubert; Luger, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The pre-alpine Lake Mondsee is situated at the northern margin of the European Alps (47° 49´N, 13° 24´E) in the Salzkammergut lake district of Upper Austria at a sea level of 481 m. The lake has a surface area of 14,21 km² and a maximum water depth of 68 m (volume is 500 Mio m³ and theoretical water retention time is 1,8 years). Sediment samples confirm oligotrophic conditions as historical reference status of the lake. From 1970 to 1985 the lake suffered from severe eutrophication leading to cyanobacterial blooms (Planctothrix rubescens). Reduction of nutrient load in the course of improved sewage treatment resulted in re-oligotrophication from 1985 to about 2000. Currently, lake Mondsee is assessed mesotrophic and the biological quality elements "phytoplankton" and "macrophytes" classify the lake in the "moderate ecological status". According to the Water Framework Directive, a key initiative throughout the EU, the aim is to improve water quality and reach the "good ecological status". Temperature data of the Lake have been measured since the 30ies of the last century in varying intervals. In the present study (1991 - 2009) water temperature measured at the deepest point of the lake shows an increase in average surface temperature (0 - 5 m) of about 2 °C over the last two decades. The increase is less pronounced in deeper water layers and almost not visible below 15 m depth. Due to global change and rising temperatures stratification is starting earlier in the season and is prolonged from formerly end of November to the middle or even end of December. Thus, between 1999 and 2011 in several years the stratification period was extended for 5 weeks. During stratification oxygen depletion occurs in the depth of lakes and prolonged stratification results in increased areas of oxygen depletion. The oxygen concentration controls the phosphorus release of lake sediments. Therefore prolonged stratification results in increased internal phosphorus load of the lake. Global warming may thus enhance internal eutrophication and lead to problems reaching and sustaining the "good ecological status" of prealpine lakes.

  11. U.S. commitments and responsibilities to reduce global warmings: Contributions of state-level policies and programs

    SciTech Connect

    Wilt, C.A.; Feldman, D.L.

    1995-12-01

    Global warming is one of the most contentious and complex environmental issues confronting scientists and public policy makers. The scope and potential impacts of global warming are immense, affecting virtually all natural processes at many levels, including coastal zone erosion, estuarine habitat, forests, and agriculture. We hypothesize that managing the natural and societal impacts of global warming, including the costs of its management, abatement, and adaptation, requires not only the cooperation of international agencies and national government, but of individual states and provinces as well. There has been a considerable increase in state-level activity to reduce global warming in the United States, but there has been little assessment of its extent or state motivations. This paper will provide an overview of possible U.S. states` commitments and responsibilities under international treaties and agreements, as well as national policy decrees such as the Clinton Administrations` Climate Change Action Plan. A review of current states` activities with brief case studies of the more progressive state programs (Connecticut, Iowa, California, Missouri, Oregon), their achievements, and their significance. We focus upon federally-mandated global change activities imposed upon states (e.g., national regulations to conserve energy or reduce emissions) and state-motivated policies not required by any national regulation (e.g., land use, transportation, regional planning policies with impacts on global change.) The latter policies may be aimed specifically at global warming prevention or mitigation or they may be incidental, beneficial by-products of policies intended for other purposes--so called `no regrets` policies. We compare the performance of state policies in these two categories in order to ascertain their relative effectiveness and promise for addressing climate change problems.

  12. Optimal Detection of Global Warming using Temperature Profiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leroy, Stephen S.

    1997-01-01

    Optimal fingerprinting is applied to estimate the amount of time it would take to detect warming by increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in monthly averages of temperature profiles over the Indian Ocean.

  13. Is Global Warming Injecting Randomness into the Climate System?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsonis, A. A.

    2004-09-01

    Data analyses and model simulations have indicated that as the planet is warming, the chance for extreme events increases. Karl et al. [1995] examined precipitation records over the 20th century and showed that the high-frequency (up to interannual) variability has increased. Subsequently, Tsonis [1996] showed that the low-frequency variability has also increased. These variability trends indicate that the frequency of extremes (more drought events and more heavy precipitation events) has increased whereas the mean has remained approximately the same. Such a tendency is observed with other variables and is consistent with model projections of a warmer planet. A tendency for increased extremes is often translated as increased randomness, simply because the fluctuations increase. Strictly speaking, however, this is incorrect. An increase in the extremes affects the probability distribution of a random variable, but the variable is still random and thus is equally unpredictable. This is in agreement with the Chaitin-Kolmogorov-Solomonoff complexity definition of randomness. According to this definition, the degree of randomness of a given sequence is determined by the length of the computer program written to reproduce it. If the program involves as many steps as the length of the sequence, then the sequence is called maximally random. Random sequences generated from probability distributions are all equally maximally random because their values appear with no particular order or repetition, regardless of the form of the distribution. As such, to describe such sequences one must write a program that involves as many steps as the length of the sequence. It follows that changes in the degree of randomness cannot be assessed by changes in the probability distribution. Changes in the degree of randomness can only be probed by changes in the dynamical properties of a system with complex behavior. If the dynamics change, the system may become more (less) complex, which will imply that a longer (shorter) program will be needed to describe it.

  14. A Theory for How Global Warming Mechanistically Depends on Cumulative Carbon Emissions Over Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodwin, P.; Williams, R. G.; Ridgwell, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate model experiments reveal that transient global warming is nearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-decadal to millennial timescales. However, it is not quantitatively understood how this near linear dependence between warming and cumulative carbon emissions arises in transient climate simulations, nor why the proportionality of warming is largely independent of emission scenario. Here, we present the first theoretical equation for how global warming depends on cumulative carbon emissions over time for an atmosphere-ocean system. For the present, our theory identifies a sensitivity of surface warming to emission of 1.5±0.7 K for every 1000 Pg of carbon emitted, reducing by only 10 to 20% by the end of the century and beyond. The sensitivity remaining nearly constant over time is due to partially-opposing thermal and carbon responses in a coupled atmosphere-ocean, as well as reflecting how warming is proportional to cumulative carbon emissions after many centuries. Incorporating estimates of terrestrial carbon uptake into our analysis reduces the sensitivity of surface warming to 1.1±0.5 K for every 1000 Pg of carbon emitted, but does not significantly alter the percentage reduction in warming sensitivity over the 21st century. Our theory provides an analytical framework to interpret model projections of global warming.

  15. Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138

  16. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138

  17. The global warming 'hiatus' and its implications on future sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieves, V.; Willis, J. K.; Patzert, W. C.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise is one of the most direct and potentially costly impacts of human caused global warming. It is driven by both melting glaciers and ice sheets (which react to the warming atmosphere and ocean), and direct absorption of heat by the oceans. In fact, over 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases warms the oceans, causing thermal expansion and sea level rise. For this reason the recent warming "hiatus", or slowdown in the rate of global surface temperature increase, may play an important role in ongoing and future sea level rise. Recent studies based on ocean reanalyses have suggested that the low rate of warming at the ocean surface (which is nearly identical to the rate of global surface temperature increase) is compensated by more rapid warming at depth. We analyzed ocean in situ observations and satellite measurements of sea level independently of these reanalyses, and compared the most recent decade with prior decades to determine whether warming at depth was faster in the past. We find little to no evidence for an increase of the rate of ocean warming at depth in the most recent decade. Our analysis suggests that a weaker external forcing trend might be a stronger key component than the interior exchange in the coupled feedback.

  18. Natural gas and efficient technologies: A response to global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Steinberg, M.

    1998-02-01

    It has become recognized by the international scientific community that global warming due to fossil fuel energy buildup of greenhouse CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is a real environmental problem. Worldwide agreement has also been reached to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions. A leading approach to reducing CO{sub 2} emissions is to utilize hydrogen-rich fuels and improve the efficiency of conversion in the power generation, transportation and heating sectors of the economy. In this report, natural gas, having the highest hydrogen content of all the fossil fuels, can have an important impact in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. This paper explores natural gas and improved conversion systems for supplying energy to all three sectors of the economy. The improved technologies include combined cycle for power generation, the Carnol system for methanol production for the transportation sector and fuel cells for both power generation and transportation use. The reduction in CO{sub 2} from current emissions range from 13% when natural gas is substituted for gasoline in the transportation sector to 45% when substituting methanol produced by the Carnol systems (hydrogen from thermal decomposition of methane reacting with CO{sub 2} from coal-fired power plants) used in the transportation sector. CO{sub 2} reductions exceeding 60% can be achieved by using natural gas in combined cycle for power generation and Carnol methanol in the transportation sector and would, thus, stabilize CO{sub 2} concentration in the atmosphere predicted to avoid undue climate change effects. It is estimated that the total fossil fuel energy bill in the US can be reduced by over 40% from the current fuel bill. This also allows a doubling in the unit cost for natural gas if the current energy bill is maintained. Estimates of the total net incremental replacement capital cost for completing the new improved equipment is not more than that which will have to be spent to replace the existing equipment conducting business as usual.

  19. Response of Vegetation in Northern China to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, H.; Huang, R.

    2009-05-01

    During the last 30 years, the warmth index (WI) (Kira, 1945) has increased by 10 to 20 points in northern China and the humid index (HI) (Xu,1985) correspondingly decreased by 1 to 2 points. Accordingly, the green leaf stage of plants and herbs around Beijing prolonged from late Nov. to mid-Dec. The phenophase has also been changed, e.g., the most enjoyable period of red leaves such as common smoketree (Cotinus coggygria) and maple (Acer mono and A.truncatum) has postponed for 10 days and the blooming period of flowering plants has also advanced for the same span. Some plants, e.g. japanese pagodatree (Sophora japonica) and hispid locust (Robinia hispida) even blossom again in fall. Some evergreen and thermophilic plants have also been planted to further north. Rice (Oryza sativa) have extended to around 49 degree N and, as an extreme case, to 52 degree N (Huma County, Heilongjiang Province), and tea (Camellia sinensis) from around 35 to 36.5 degree N. River basins of Songhuajiang and Nenjiang in Heilongjiang Province become important rice production bases. Rizhao and Qingdao in Shandong province become famous tea production bases. Before 1970s, evergreen broadleaf woody plants were rarely cultivated in Beijing. But now such plants as privet (Lygustrum lucidum), magnolia (Magnolia grandiflora), evergreen euonymus (Euonymus japonicus), and boxwood (Buxus sinica var. margaritacea) all live there through the winter. Many thermophilic garden plants, such as fig (Ficus carica), Chinese tulip tree (Liliodendron chinense), Chinese photinia (Photinia serrulata), crape myrtle (Lagerstroemia indica), and plum blossom (Prunus mume) are also successively cultivated outdoors in Beijing. Common papermulberry (Broussonetia papirifera) gradually increases and even becomes subdominant species of deciduous forest during last 30 years in the piedmont around Beijing. The cultivation boundary of some thermophilic trees, e.g., Chinese catalpa (Catalpa ovata), japanese pagodatree (Sophora japonica), tree of heaven (Ailanthus altissima), yellow locust (Robinia pseudoacacia), staghorn sumac (Rhus typhina), and gingko (Ginkgo biloba) have also been pushing northward to Huhhot, (41 degree N)Chifeng (42 degree N) and Tongliao (43 degree N), Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Alpine timberline has also been moved to higher altitude in Wutai Mt., Shanxi Province and Changbaishan Mt., Jilin Province. Although global warming seems to benefit agriculture in some cases, considering the decrease of wetness, the perspective is still uncertain. Drought and frost hazard are stress factors for the vegetation introduced to the northern areas. Chinese scholars are carefully watching the trend.

  20. Research Spotlight: Limiting global warming may not limit heat wave risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tretkoff, Ernie

    Recent policy discussions on climate change have focused on limiting global average temperature increases. For instance, the European Union has set a goal of limiting global warming to 2°C. However, this goal represents a global average; regional and local temperature changes may vary, and substantial increases in regional extreme heat events could occur, possibly with serious consequences for some communities.

  1. Global Warming and Ozone Layer Depletion: STS Issues for Social Studies Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rye, James A.; Strong, Donna D.; Rubba, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    Explores the inclusion of science-technology-society (STS) education in social studies. Provides background information on global warming and the depletion of the ozone layer. Focuses on reasons for teaching global climate change in the social studies classroom and includes teaching suggestions. Offers a list of Web sites about global climate

  2. Global Warming and Ozone Layer Depletion: STS Issues for Social Studies Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rye, James A.; Strong, Donna D.; Rubba, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    Explores the inclusion of science-technology-society (STS) education in social studies. Provides background information on global warming and the depletion of the ozone layer. Focuses on reasons for teaching global climate change in the social studies classroom and includes teaching suggestions. Offers a list of Web sites about global climate…

  3. Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V.; Moraes, E. C.

    2011-11-01

    In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO2 concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming.

  4. American exceptionalism? Similarities and differences in national attitudes toward energy policy and global warming

    SciTech Connect

    D.M. Reiner; T.E. Curry; M.A. de Figueiredo; H.J. Herzog; S.D. Ansolabehere; K. Itaoka; F. Johnsson; M. Odenberger

    2006-04-01

    Despite sharp differences in government policy, the views of the U.S. public on energy and global warming are remarkably similar to those in Sweden, Britain, and Japan. Americans do exhibit some differences, placing lower priority on the environment and global warming, and with fewer believing that 'global warming has been established as a serious problem and immediate action is necessary'. There also remains a small hard core of skeptics (<10%) who do not believe in the science of climate change and the need for action, a group that is much smaller in the other countries surveyed. The similarities are, however, pervasive. Similar preferences are manifest across a wide range of technology and fuel choices, in support of renewables, in research priorities, in a basic understanding of which technologies produce or reduce carbon dioxide (or misunderstandings in the case of nuclear power), and in willingness to pay for solving global warming. 29 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  5. American exceptionalism? Similarities and differences in national attitudes toward energy policy and global warming.

    PubMed

    Reiner, D M; Curry, T E; De Figueiredo, M A; Herzog, H J; Ansolabehere, S D; Itaoka, K; Johnsson, F; Odenberger, M

    2006-04-01

    Despite sharp differences in government policy, the views of the U.S. public on energy and global warming are remarkably similar to those in Sweden, Britain, and Japan. Americans do exhibit some differences, placing lower priority on the environment and global warming, and with fewer believing that "global warming has been established as a serious problem and immediate action is necessary". There also remains a small hard core of skeptics (< 10%) who do not believe in the science of climate change and the need for action, a group that is much smaller in the other countries surveyed. The similarities are, however, pervasive. Similar preferences are manifest across a wide range of technology and fuel choices, in support of renewables, in research priorities, in a basic understanding of which technologies produce or reduce carbon dioxide (or misunderstandings in the case of nuclear power), and in willingness to pay for solving global warming. PMID:16646438

  6. A new type of debate for global warming and scientific literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gautier, Catherine

    2012-09-01

    Expanding on some ideas introduced in the paper by Albe and Gombert (2012) " Students' communication, argumentation and knowledge in a citizen' conference on global warming", I explore two issues relevant to their work: global warming (GW) as a socioscientific controversy and scientific literacy in regards to climate change science. For the first issue, the definition of GW socioscientific controversy provided in the article raises controversies in both scientific communities and society or social groups concerned by the issue. I review this from two perspectives that can be considered at the extreme ends of a spectrum of perspectives. I then address the role of debates in education about global warming and climate change and suggest a new type of classroom debates to replace those addressing the existence and cause of global warming.

  7. Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

    2014-04-01

    Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. PMID:24372690

  8. Coastal-zone biogeochemical dynamics under global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Mackenzie, F.T.; Ver, L.M.; Lerman, A.

    2000-03-01

    The coastal zone, consisting of the continental shelves to a depth of 200 meters, including bays, lagoons, estuaries, and near-shore banks, is an environment that is strongly affected by its biogeochemical and physical interactions with reservoirs in the adjacent domains of land, atmosphere, open ocean, and marine sediments. Because the coastal zone is smaller in volume and area coverage relative to the open ocean, it traditionally has been studied as an integral part of the global oceans. In this paper, the authors show by numerical modeling that it is important to consider the coastal zone as an entity separate from the open ocean in any assessment of future Earth-system response under human perturbation. Model analyses for the early part of the 21st century suggest that the coastal zone plays a significant modifying role in the biogeochemical dynamics of the carbon cycle and the nutrient cycles coupled to it. This role is manifested in changes in primary production, storage, and/or export of organic matter, its remineralization, and calcium carbonate precipitation--all of which determine the state of the coastal zone with respect to exchange of CO{sub 2} with the atmosphere. Under a scenario of future reduced or complete cessation of the thermohaline circulation (THC) of the global oceans, coastal waters become an important sink for atmospheric CO{sub 2}, as opposed to the conditions in the past and present, when coastal waters are believed to be a source of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere. Profound changes in coastal-zone primary productivity underscore the important role of phosphorus as a limiting nutrient. In addition, calculations indicate that the saturation state of coastal waters with respect to carbonate minerals will decline by {approximately}15% by the year 2030. Any future slowdown in the THC of the oceans will increase slightly the rate of decline in saturation state.

  9. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

    PubMed Central

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-01-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

  10. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-11-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

  11. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

    PubMed

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-01-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

  12. How historic simulation-observation discrepancy affects future warming projections in a very large model ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodwin, Philip

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate made by model-ensembles have credibility because the historic simulations by these models are consistent with, or near-consistent with, historic observations. However, it is not known how small inconsistencies between the ranges of observed and simulated historic climate change affects the future projections made by a model ensemble. Here, the impact of historical simulation-observation inconsistencies on future warming projections is quantified in a 4-million member Monte Carlo ensemble from a new efficient Earth System Model (ESM). Of the 4-million ensemble members, a subset of 182,500 are consistent with historic ranges of warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake simulated by the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. This simulation-consistent subset projects similar future warming ranges to the CMIP5 ensemble for all four RCP scenarios, indicating the new ESM represents an efficient tool to explore parameter space for future warming projections based on historic performance. A second subset of 14,500 ensemble members are consistent with historic observations for warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake. This observation-consistent subset projects a narrower range for future warming, with the lower bounds of projected warming still similar to CMIP5, but the upper warming bounds reduced by 20-35 %. These findings suggest that part of the upper range of twenty-first century CMIP5 warming projections may reflect historical simulation-observation inconsistencies. However, the agreement of lower bounds for projected warming implies that the likelihood of warming exceeding dangerous levels over the twenty-first century is unaffected by small discrepancies between CMIP5 models and observations.

  13. Pupils teach to pupils about genetics or global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuny, Delphine

    2013-04-01

    The idea of this project is to put pupils in a teaching situation. Classes of teenagers go to primary schools and animate a science workshop. Junior pupils are separated in small groups and they attend two different sessions in the same half-day. The whole workshop consists of 4 sessions. Each session is organized with an activity (microscope observation, counting of chromosomes, drawing of a curve, etc.) in which senior pupils coach the younger, and ends with a debate or an assessment. The first experiment of this type of project was realized with a class of 14 to 15 year old pupils on the theme: How do your parents transmit your characteristics? The four sessions are attended in disorder but when knowledge of other sessions are necessary, senior pupils explain them at the beginning of the session. Junior pupils have a notebook to write their activities and to note their conclusions. Session 1: What did my father give to make me? Drawing and measuring microscopic observations of human spermatozoons. Conclusion: my father gave a spermatozoon which measures less than one mm long, this spermatozoon met my mother's egg and it made my first cell. Session 2: What does the program that made me look like? Microscope observation of blood cells, identification of chromosomes in the core. On microscope pictures, counting of chromosomes. Conclusion: My program is in each cell of my body, inside the core. Sometimes, in this core, we can observe short sticks that are called chromosomes. All human beings have the same number of chromosomes in their cells: 46. Session 3: Where do my chromosomes come from? Counting of chromosomes in spermatozoons or ovums and playing with sets of chromosomes to deduct sex of a baby. Conclusion: Daddy gave me 23 chromosomes and mummy gave me 23 chromosomes too. My program is then constituted from half of daddy's program and half of mummy's program. My brothers and sisters also have half and half, but not the same halves! Session 4: Where is the program that made me situated? Virtual experiments on the first cell of rats (core transfers) Conclusion: The program that made that a rat is itself is situated in the core of its first cell. It is called a genetic program. Second experiment of this type of project is realized with a class of 16-17 year old pupils, on global warming for 8 to 11 year old pupils from the neighbor school. The older pupils use a teaching set created by "la main à la pâte" foundation, the set is called "le climat, ma planète et moi" (the climate, my planet and me, http://www.fondation-lamap.org/fr/climat). This project is to take place in March 2013.

  14. The roles of external forcing and natural variability in global warming hiatuses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Lei

    2016-02-01

    Global mean surface temperature (GMST) rising has slowed down since late 1990s, which is referred to as the global warming hiatus. There was another global warming hiatus event during 1940s-1960s. The roles of the external forcing and the natural variability in both global warming hiatuses are explored, using EOF analysis. The first two leading EOF modes of the 5-year running mean global sea surface temperature (SST) reflect the global warming scenario (EOF1) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO)-like natural variability (EOF2), respectively. In observation, PC2 was in its positive phase (eastern Pacific cooling) during 1940s-1960s, which contributed to the previous warming hiatus. In addition, GMST trends are found to be negative during late 1950s and 1960s in most of the CMIP5 historical runs, which implies that the external forcing also contributed to the pause in the GMST rising. It is further demonstrated that it is the natural radiative forcing (volcanic forcing) that caused the drop-down of GMST in 1960s. The current global warming hiatus has been attributed to the eastern Pacific cooling/enhanced Pacific trade winds. It is shown that the PC2 switched to its positive phase in late 1990s, and hence the IPO-like natural variability made a contribution to the slowdown of GMST rising in the past decade. It is also found that the EOF1 mode (global warming mode) of the observed SST features a smaller warming in tropical Pacific compared to the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic. Such inter-basin warming contrast, which is attributed to the "ocean thermostat" mechanism, has been suggested to contribute to the intensification of Pacific trade winds since late 1990s as well. Global warming hiatuses are also found in the future projections from CMIP5 models, and the spatial pattern of the SST trends during the warming-hiatus periods exhibits an IPO-like pattern, which resembles the observed SST trends since late 1990s.

  15. Impact of global warming on the Antarctic mass balance and global sea level

    SciTech Connect

    Budd, W.F.; Simmonds, I.

    1992-03-01

    The onset of global warming from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can have a number of important different impacts on the Antarctic ice sheet. These include increasing basal melt of ice shelves, faster flow of the grounded ice, increased surface ablation in coastal regions, and increased precipitation over the interior. An analysis of these separate terms by ice sheet modeling indicates that the impact of increasing ice sheet flow rates on sea level does not become a dominant factor until 100--200 years after the realization of the warming. For the time period of the next 100 years the most important impact on sea level from the Antarctic mass balance can be expected to result from increasing precipitation minus evaporation balance over the grounded ice. The present Antarctic net accumulation and coastal ice flux each amount to about 2000 km3 yr-1, both of which on their own would equate to approximately 6 mm yr-1 of sea level change. The present rate of sea level rise of about 1.2 mm yr-1 is therefore equivalent to about 20% imbalance in the Antarctic mass fluxes. The magnitude of the changes to the Antarctic precipitation and evaporation have been studied by a series of General Circulation Model experiments, using a model which gives a reasonable simulation of the present Antarctic climate, including precipitation and evaporation.

  16. Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate: a multi-model analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Drange, Helge

    2015-09-01

    Instrumental temperature records show that the global climate may experience decadal-scale periods without warming despite a long-term warming trend. We analysed 17 global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), identifying the likelihood and duration of periods without warming in the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, together with the preindustrial control and historical simulations. We find that non-warming periods may last 10, 15 and 30 years for RCP8.5, RCP6.0 and RCP4.5, respectively. In the models, anomalous ocean heat uptake and storage are the main factors explaining the decadal-scale surface temperature hiatus periods. The low-latitude East Pacific Ocean is a key region for these variations, acting in tandem with basin-scale anomalies in the sea level pressure. During anomalously cold decades, roughly 35-50 % of the heat anomalies in the upper 700 m of the ocean are located in the Pacific Ocean, and 25 % in the Atlantic Ocean. Decadal-scale ocean heat anomalies, integrated over the upper 700 m, have a magnitude of about 7.5 × 1021 J. This is comparable to the ocean heat uptake needed to maintain a 10 year period without increasing surface temperature under global warming. On sub-decadal time scales the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans all have the ability to store large amounts of heat, contributing to variations in global surface temperature. The likelihood of decadal-scale non-warming periods decrease with global warming, firstly at the low latitude region stretching eastward from the tropical Atlantic towards the western Pacific. The North Atlantic and Southern Oceans have largest likelihood of non-warming decades in a warming world.

  17. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  18. Global warming and environmental contaminants in aquatic organisms: the need of the etho-toxicology approach.

    PubMed

    Manciocco, Arianna; Calamandrei, Gemma; Alleva, Enrico

    2014-04-01

    Environmental contaminants are associated with a wide spectrum of pathological effects. Temperature increase affects ambient distribution and toxicity of these chemicals in the water environment, representing a potentially emerging problem for aquatic species with short-, medium- and long-term repercussions on human health through the food chain. We assessed peer-reviewed literature, including primary studies, review articles and organizational reports available. We focused on studies concerning toxicity of environmental pollutants within a global warming scenario. Existing knowledge on the effects that the increase of water temperature in a contaminated situation has on physiological mechanisms of aquatic organisms is presented. Altogether we consider the potential consequences for the human beings due to fish and shellfish consumption. Finally, we propose an etho-toxicological approach to study the effects of toxicants in conditions of thermal increase, using aquatic organisms as experimental models under laboratory controlled conditions. PMID:24480426

  19. Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meehan, Casey R.

    Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz and Thompson, 1990) serves as the theoretical framework for this qualitative analysis in which I ask the question how do U.S. secondary school curricula and teachers deal with the disparity between the overwhelming scientific consensus and the lay-public's skepticism regarding global warming? I analyzed nine widely used social studies and science textbooks, eight sets of supplemental materials about global warming produced by a range of not-for-profit and governmental organizations, and interviewed fourteen high school teachers who had experience teaching formal lessons about global warming in their content area. Findings suggest: 1) the range of global warming content within social studies and science textbooks and supplemental curricula reflects the spectrum of conceptualizations found among members of the U.S. public; 2) global warming curricula communicate only a narrow range of strategies for dealing with global warming and its associated threats; and 3) social studies and science teachers report taking a range of stances about global warming in their classroom, but sometimes the stance they put forth to their students does not align with their personal beliefs about global warming. The findings pose a troubling conundrum. Some of the global warming curricula treat the cause of global warming--a question that is not scientifically controversial--as a question with multiple and competing "right" answers. At the same time, much of curricula position how we should address global warming--a question that is legitimately controversial--as a question with one correct answer despite there being many reasonable responses. Finally, I present the implications this conundrum has for teaching about global warming in a politically polarized atmosphere.

  20. Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

    2016-04-01

    Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

  1. Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

    2008-01-01

    Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An analysis of meat, egg, and milk production encompasses not only the direct rearing and slaughtering of animals, but also grain and fertilizer production for animal feed, waste storage and disposal, water use, and energy expenditures on farms and in transporting feed and finished animal products, among other key impacts of the production process as a whole. Conclusions Immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns are both critical and timely if GHGs from the farm animal sector are to be mitigated. PMID:18470284

  2. The interplay between knowledge, perceived efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change: a one-year longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Milfont, Taciano L

    2012-06-01

    If the long-term goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C is to be achieved, rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required. These reductions will demand political leadership and widespread public support for action on global warming and climate change. Public knowledge, level of concern, and perceived personal efficacy, in positively affecting these issues are key variables in understanding public support for mitigation action. Previous research has documented some contradictory associations between knowledge, personal efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about temporal stability and direction of influence. This study examines the relationships between these three variables over a one-year period and three waves with national data from New Zealand. Results showed a positive association between the variables, and the pattern of findings was stable and consistent across the three data points. More importantly, results indicate that concern mediates the influence of knowledge on personal efficacy. Knowing more about global warming and climate change increases overall concern about the risks of these issues, and this increased concern leads to greater perceived efficacy and responsibility to help solving them. Implications for risk communication are discussed. PMID:22489642

  3. Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schurer, Andrew P.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Obrochta, Stephen P.

    2015-07-01

    The recent warming "hiatus" is subject to intense interest, with proposed causes including natural forcing and internal variability. Here we derive samples of all natural and internal variability from observations and a recent proxy reconstruction to investigate the likelihood that these two sources of variability could produce a hiatus or rapid warming in surface temperature. The likelihood is found to be consistent with that calculated previously for models and exhibits a similar spatial pattern, with an Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like structure, although with more signal in the Atlantic than in model patterns. The number and length of events increases if natural forcing is also considered, particularly in the models. From the reconstruction it can be seen that large eruptions, such as Mount Tambora in 1815, or clusters of eruptions, may result in a hiatus of over 20 years, a finding supported by model results.

  4. Global warming: A geothermal evidence from northern Finland

    SciTech Connect

    Bodri, L.

    1996-12-31

    The greatest potential climatic changes induced by an increasing greenhouse effect are expected to occur in the high latitudes. Due to the great natural climatic variability in such areas, it is difficult to detect the greenhouse signal from meteorologic records. A reliable documentation of climate changes requires the examining of all available climatic records. In present study, temperature-depth profiles from two Finnish boreholes from over the Arctic circle have been considered to reconstruct ground surface temperature histories. The holes have been carefully selected to exclude any possible disturbances from underground water circulation, and to minimize the human effects as completely as possible. Both boreholes indicate continuous warming by {approximately}1--1.5 K through the last hundred years. The rate of warming increases from about the 1960`s. The results are in good agreement with those obtained for the Alaskan Arctic in a similar study by Lachenbruch and Marshall.

  5. Evidences of global warming for various regions of Russia

    SciTech Connect

    Batyreva, O.V.; Pischehko, V.A.; Vilfand, R.M.; Vasiliev, A.A.

    1997-12-31

    The automatical classification of mean monthly temperature fields of Russia was carried out. The data of 42 years in regular grid-points 5 x 10{degree} of Northern Hemisphere were used. The combination of land`s algorithm of K-averages was applied. The increasing of prevailing occurrence of warm types during last decades was discovered. It turned out that different regions had different dynamics of type occurrences.

  6. Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chronis, Themis G.; Cecil, Dan; Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central Africa, and Amazon Basin) do not show any particular response to this transition.

  7. Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Li-Guang; Wang, Bin

    2003-01-01

    A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the current climate state.

  8. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  9. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  10. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-08-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  11. Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

    PubMed

    Beuhler, M

    2003-01-01

    Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning. PMID:12793676

  12. Identifying and Addressing Students' Alternative Conceptions of the Causes of Global Warming: The Need for Cognitive Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meadows, George; Wiesenmayer, Randall L.

    1999-09-01

    School-age children are frequently exposed to issues related to global warming/global climatic change. Yet, their conceptions regarding the scope and nature of this phenomenon are often incomplete or even inconstant with predominant scientific understandings. The complex conceptual knowledge required to understand issues related to global warming create learning situations that harbor the development of incomplete or inaccurate ideas related to global warming. This study presents some of those misconceptions and discusses strategies for mitigation.

  13. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

  14. Estimating the Response of Mid-latitude Orographic Precipitation to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Xiaoming

    The possible change in orographic precipitation in response to global warming is a rising concern under climate change, which could potentially cause significant societal impact. A general circulation model was employed to simulate the climate on an aquaplanet which has idealized mountains at its mid-latitudes. It was found that orographic precipitation at northern mid-latitudes could increase by rates faster than the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, ˜7%/K of surface warming, in doubling CO2 simulations, while at southern mid-latitudes orographic precipitation decreased. The frequency of extreme events increased at all latitudes of the idealized mountains. Through a simple diagnostic model it was revealed that the changes in the climatological means of orographic precipitation rates were mostly determined by the changes in three variables: the speed of the wind component perpendicular to a mountain, the vertical displacement of saturated parcels, and the moist adiabatic lapse rate of saturation specific humidity. The last variable had relatively uniform contribution to the total changes in orographic precipitation across different latitudes, about 4 -- 5%/K. But contributions from the changes in wind speed and saturated vertical displacement were found to have strong north-south asymmetry, which were linked to the poleward shift of storm tracks. The changes in wind speed had positive contributions in general, with larger contributions at higher mid-latitudes. While the changes in saturated vertical displacement had negative contributions at all latitudes, but larger negative contributions were located at lower mid-latitudes. Although the poleward shift of storm tracks greatly affects regional precipitation, following the poleward shift of storm tracks the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of precipitation at the latitudes of maximum precipitation in the control simulation is very similar to that in the warm climate simulation, except that precipitation intensity was positively shifted by a constant factor --- mainly due to changes in the moist adiabatic lapse rate of saturation specific humidity.

  15. The stability of the thermohaline circulation in global warming experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Schmittner, A.; Stocker, T.F.

    1999-04-01

    A simplified climate model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is used to perform extensive sensitivity studies concerning possible future climate change induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Supplemented with an active atmospheric hydrological cycle, experiments with different rates of CO{sub 2} increase and different climate sensitivities are performed. The model exhibits a threshold value of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration beyond which the North Atlantic Deep Water formation stops and never recovers. For a climate sensitivity that leads to an equilibrium warming of 3.6 C for a doubling of CO{sub 2} and a rate of CO{sub 2} increase of 1% yr{sup {minus}1}, the threshold lies between 650 and 700 ppmv. Moreover, it is shown that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the rate of increase of greenhouse gases. For a slower increase of atmospheric pCO{sub 2} the final amount that can be reached without a shutdown of the circulation is considerably higher. This rate-sensitive response is due to the uptake of heat and excess freshwater from the uppermost layers to the deep ocean. The increased equator-to-pole freshwater transport in a warmer atmosphere is mainly responsible for the cessation of deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Another consequence of the enhanced latent heat transport is a stronger warming at high latitudes. A model version with fixed water vapor transport exhibits uniform warming at all latitudes. The inclusion of a simple parameterization of the ice-albedo feedback increases the model sensitivity and further decreases the pole-to-equator temperature difference in a greenhouse climate. The possible range of CO{sub 2} threshold concentrations and its dependency on the rate of CO{sub 2} increase, on the climate sensitivity, and on other model parameters are discussed.

  16. Hypoxia, global warming, and terrestrial late Permian extinctions.

    PubMed

    Huey, Raymond B; Ward, Peter D

    2005-04-15

    A catastrophic extinction occurred at the end of the Permian Period. However, baseline extinction rates appear to have been elevated even before the final catastrophe, suggesting sustained environmental degradation. For terrestrial vertebrates during the Late Permian, the combination of a drop in atmospheric oxygen plus climate warming would have induced hypoxic stress and consequently compressed altitudinal ranges to near sea level. Our simulations suggest that the magnitude of altitudinal compression would have forced extinctions by reducing habitat diversity, fragmenting and isolating populations, and inducing a species-area effect. It also might have delayed ecosystem recovery after the mass extinction. PMID:15831755

  17. Attributing the Global Warming Slowdown of the Last Decade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guemas, V.; Doblas-Reyes, F.

    2014-12-01

    Despite a sustained production of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, the Earth's mean near-surface temperature paused its rise from 2000 onward. To explain such a pause, an increase in ocean heat uptake below the superficial ocean layer has been hypothesized to overcompensate for the Earth's heat storage. Contributions have also been suggested from the deep prolonged solar minimum, the stratospheric water vapor, the stratospheric and tropospheric aerosols. This presentation will illustrate how successful retrospective climate predictions of this warming slowdown up to 5 years ahead can be exploited to attribute this slowdown through sensitivity experiments and heat budget analysis.

  18. Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Niño

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Mike; Auad, Guillermo

    2001-01-01

    Global average sea surface temperature (SST) from 40°S to 60°N fluctuates ±0.3°C on interannual period scales, with global warming (cooling) during El Niño (La Niña). About 90% of the global warming during El Niño occurs in the tropical global ocean from 20°S to 20°N, half because of large SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño and the other half because of warm SST anomalies occurring over ∼80% of the tropical global ocean. From examination of National Centers for Environmental Prediction [Kalnay et al., 1996] and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set [Woodruff et al., 1993] reanalyses, tropical global warming during El Niño is associated with higher troposphere moisture content and cloud cover, with reduced trade wind intensity occurring during the onset phase of El Niño. During this onset phase the tropical global average diabatic heat storage tendency in the layer above the main pycnocline is 1–3 W m−2above normal. Its principal source is a reduction in the poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropical ocean of 2–5 W m−2. Subsequently, peak tropical global warming during El Niño is dissipated by an increase in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere of 2–5 W m−2, with reduced shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in response to increased cloud cover tending to cancel each other. In the extratropical global ocean the reduction in poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropics during the onset of El Niño tends to be balanced by reduction in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere. Thus global warming and cooling during Earth's internal mode of interannual climate variability arise from fluctuations in the global hydrological balance, not the global radiation balance. Since it occurs in the absence of extraterrestrial and anthropogenic forcing, global warming on decadal, interdecadal, and centennial period scales may also occur in association with Earth's internal modes of climate variability on those scales.

  19. Relative effects on global warming of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fisher, Donald A.; Hales, Charles H.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, N. Dak

    1990-01-01

    The relative potential global warming effects for several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a; carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) were calculated by two atmospheric modeling groups. These calculations were based on atmospheric chemistry and radiative convective models to determine the chemical profiles and the radiative processes. The resulting relative greenhouse warming when normalized to the effect of CFC-11 agree reasonably well as long as we account for differences between modeled lifetimes. Differences among results are discussed. Sensitivity of relative warming values is determined with respect to trace gas levels assumed. Transient relative global warming effects are analyzed.

  20. On the scientific basis for global warming scenarios.

    PubMed

    Lindzen, R S

    1994-01-01

    The scientific basis for current projections of significant warming due to enhanced minor greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is reviewed. Care is taken to distinguish the issue of changes in radiative forcing at the earth's surface from the issue of the climatic response to this forcing. With respect to the former, it is noted that the predicted forcing is, in fact, small (2 W m(-2) at the surface for a doubling of CO(2), or less than 1% of the absorbed solar flux). With respect to the latter, it is noted that predictions of significant warming are dependent on the presence of large positive feedbacks serving to amplify the response. The largest of these feedbacks in current models involves water vapor at upper levels in the troposphere. This feedback appears to be largely a model artifact, and evidence is presented that models may even have the wrong sign for this feedback. The possibility is examined that the response of climate to major volcanic eruptions may provide a test of the climate system's amplification. The basis for this possibility is the fact that the response delay of the ocean-atmosphere system is proportional to the system gain. PMID:15091758

  1. The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

    PubMed

    Diaz, James H

    2007-01-01

    With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures. PMID:18268873

  2. Global warming and end-use efficiency implications of replacing CFCs

    SciTech Connect

    Fairchild, P.D.; Fischer, S.K.

    1991-12-31

    The direct contribution of CFCs to calculated global warming has been recognized for some time. As a result of the international agreement to phase out CFCs due to stratospheric ozone and the ensuing search for suitable alternatives, there has recently been increased attention on the DIRECT global warming potential (GWP) of the fluorocarbon alternatives as greenhouse gases. However, to date there has been little focus on the INDIRECT global warming effect arising from end-use efficiency changes and associated CO{sub 2} emissions. A study being conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) addresses this combined or total global warming impact of viable options to replace CFCs in their major energy-related applications. This paper reviews selected results for air-conditioning, refrigeration, and heat pump applications. The analysis indicates that the CFC user industries have made substantial progress in approaching near-equal energy efficiency with the HCFC/HFC alternative refrigerants. The findings also bring into question the relative importance of the DIRECT (chemical-related) effect in many applications. Replacing CFCs is an important step in reducing the total global warming impact, and at present the HCFC and HFCS appear to offer the best efficiency and lowest total impact of options available in the relatively short time period required for the transition away from CFCs.

  3. Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

    PubMed

    Nabi, Sa; Qader, Ss

    2009-01-01

    The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world.This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards. PMID:21483497

  4. Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

  5. Clouds and climate: Unraveling a key piece of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Seinfeld, J.H.

    2000-02-01

    Federal policy decisions relating to mitigation of greenhouse gas and other emissions have the potential to exert an enormous impact on industries in which chemical engineers play a prominent role. Many in these industries keep close watch on the development of scientific understanding associated with predictions of global climate change. The authors review one of the most critical, and most uncertain, pieces of the climate puzzle, the role of aerosols and clouds in the global energy balance.

  6. The 2 °C global warming effect on summer European tourism through different indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grillakis, Manolis G.; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.

    2015-12-01

    Climate and weather patterns are an essential resource for outdoor tourism activities. The projected changes in climate and weather patterns are expected to affect the future state of tourism. The present study aims to quantify the positive or negative effect of a 2 °C global warming on summertime climate comfort in the sense of exercising activities that involve light body activity. The well-established Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) and three variants of the widely used Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) were analyzed. Additionally, a new index based on TCI and CIT was tested and compared against the precious indices. Past and future climate data of five high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) from different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Euro-CORDEX) for a +2 °C period were used. The results indicate improvement in the climate comfort for the majority of European areas for the May to October period. For the June to August period, central and northern European areas are projected to improve, while marginal improvement is found for Mediterranean countries. Furthermore, in specific cases of adjacent Mediterranean areas such as the southern Iberian Peninsula, the June to August climate favorability is projected to reduce as a result of the increase to daytime temperature. The use of a set of different indices and different RCMs and RCPs samples a large fraction of the uncertainty that is crucial for providing robust regional impact information due to climate change. The analysis revealed the similarities and the differences in the magnitude of change across the different indices. Moreover, discrepancies were found in the results of different concentration pathways to the +2 °C global warming, with the RCP8.5 projecting more significant changes for some of the analyzed indices. The estimation of the TCI using different timescale climate data did not change the results on tourism significantly.

  7. Greenland Ice Sheet’s response to global warming (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffen, K.

    2009-12-01

    Air temperatures along the west coast on the Greenland ice sheet have increased by 2 deg. C per decade since 1991, with largest warming during the winter months. The ice sheet melt area increased by 20% since 1979, and the increase in bare ice area is unmistakable at 13% per year. Warm summers and extended melt seasons are to blame for 3.5 m surface lowering at the long-term equilibrium line altitude, (1100 m elevation at 70 deg. N) between 2000 and 2007. The precipitation does not show a clear trend and varies between 30 cm and 200 cm annual snow accumulation at the equilibrium line altitude along the western slope of the ice sheet, 1979-2008. Increase in ice velocity in the ablation region and the concurrent increase in melt water suggests that water penetrates to great depth through moulins and cracks, lubricating the bottom of the ice sheet. The mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet has been negative for the past decade and the ice loss seems to be accelerating in recent years. Some of the ice loss can be explained by increase in surface melting (40%), however, ocean-ice interaction and ice dynamics play a major role. Several glaciers located north of Jakobshavn Isbrea (70 N) have increased flow velocities and loosing considerable ice volume to the ocean. New insight was gained of subsurface hydrologic channels and cavities using new instrumentation and a video system during the melt peak in August 2006-2009. Volume and geometry of a 100 m deep moulin were mapped with a rotating laser, and photographs with digital cameras. Sub-glacial hydrologic channels were investigated and filmed using a tethered, autonomous system, several hundred meters into the ice. These new results will be discussed in view of the rapid increase in melt area and mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet due to increasing air temperatures.

  8. The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Shuai-Lei; Huang, Gang; Wu, Ren-Guang; Qu, Xia

    2016-01-01

    The globally-averaged annual combined land and ocean surface temperature (GST) anomaly change features a slowdown in the rate of global warming in the mid-twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first century. Here, it is shown that the hiatus in the rate of global warming typically occurs when the internally generated cooling associated with the cool phase of the multi-decadal variability overcomes the secular warming from human-induced forcing. We provide compelling evidence that the global warming hiatus is a natural product of the interplays between a secular warming tendency due in a large part to the buildup of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, in particular CO2 concentration, and internally generated cooling by a cool phase of a quasi-60-year oscillatory variability that is closely associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). We further illuminate that the AMO can be considered as a useful indicator and the PDO can be implicated as a harbinger of variations in global annual average surface temperature on multi-decadal timescales. Our results suggest that the recent observed hiatus in the rate of global warming will very likely extend for several more years due to the cooling phase of the quasi-60-year oscillatory variability superimposed on the secular warming trend.

  9. An Inconvenient Truth. The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It

    SciTech Connect

    Gore, Al

    2006-06-15

    This book is published to tie in with a documentary film of the same name. Both the book and film were inspired by a series of multimedia presentations on global warming that the author created and delivers to groups around the world. With this book, Gore, brings together leading-edge research from top scientists around the world; photographs, charts, and other illustrations; and personal anecdotes and observations to document the fast pace and wide scope of global warming. He presents, with alarming clarity and conclusiveness, and with humor, too, that the fact of global warming is not in question and that its consequences for the world we live in will be disastrous if left unchecked.

  10. The recent global warming hiatus: What is the role of Pacific variability?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douville, H.; Voldoire, A.; Geoffroy, O.

    2015-02-01

    The observed global mean surface air temperature (GMST) has not risen over the last 15 years, spurring outbreaks of skepticism regarding the nature of global warming and challenging the upper range transient response of the current-generation global climate models. Recent numerical studies have, however, tempered the relevance of the observed pause in global warming by highlighting the key role of tropical Pacific internal variability. Here we first show that many climate models overestimate the influence of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation on GMST, thereby shedding doubt on their ability to capture the tropical Pacific contribution to the hiatus. Moreover, we highlight that model results can be quite sensitive to the experimental design. We argue that overriding the surface wind stress is more suitable than nudging the sea surface temperature for controlling the tropical Pacific ocean heat uptake and, thereby, the multidecadal variability of GMST. Using the former technique, our model captures several aspects of the recent climate evolution, including the weaker slowdown of global warming over land and the transition toward a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Yet the observed global warming is still overestimated not only over the recent 1998-2012 hiatus period but also over former decades, thereby suggesting that the model might be too sensitive to the prescribed radiative forcings.

  11. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

    PubMed

    Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2013-09-19

    Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase. PMID:23995690

  12. The recent global-warming hiatus: What is the role of the Pacific variability?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douville, Herv; Voldoire, Aurore

    2015-04-01

    The observed global mean surface air temperature (GMST) has not risen over the last 15 years, spurring outbreaks of skepticism regarding the nature of global warming and challenging the upper-range transient response of the current-generation global climate models. Recent numerical studies have however tempered the relevance of the observed pause in global warming by highlighting the key role of the tropical Pacific internal variability. Here we first show that many climate models overestimate the influence of the El Nio Southern Oscillation on GMST, thereby shedding doubt on their ability to capture the tropical Pacific contribution to the hiatus. Moreover, we highlight that model results are quite sensitive to the experimental design. We argue that overriding the surface wind stress is more suitable than nudging the sea surface temperature for controlling the tropical Pacific ocean heat uptake and, thereby, the multi-decadal variability of GMST. Using the former technique, our model captures several aspects of the recent climate evolution, including the weaker slowdown of global warming over land and the transition towards a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Yet, the recent global warming is still overestimated, not only over the recent 1998-2012 hiatus period but also over former decades, thereby suggesting that the model might be too sensitive to the prescribed radiative forcings.

  13. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-01-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

  14. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-22

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

  15. Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    White, Warren B.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

  16. CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

    PubMed

    Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

    2015-06-26

    Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. PMID:26044301

  17. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karl, Thomas R.; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H.; McMahon, James R.; Menne, Matthew J.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Vose, Russell S.; Zhang, Huai-Min

    2015-06-01

    Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming “hiatus.” Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a “slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature.

  18. Global warming effects: future feasibility of current cooling equipment for animal houses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valiño, V.; Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; de La Plaza, S.

    2009-04-01

    Interest in global warming effects on the agricultural systems is currently high, especially in areas which are likely to be more affected by this temperature rising, i.e. the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2008). According to this report, the model projections of surface warming predict a temperature increase between 0.5°C to 1.5°C in the European area by the period 2020-2029. The aim of the present work was to assess the future consequences of the global warming effect on the feasibility of the cooling equipment in animal houses. Several equipment combinations were compared by means of modelling the inside climate in fattening pig houses, including forced ventilation and cooling pad. The modelling was carried out for six different European locations: Spain, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, for the today conditions; secondly, the global warming effect in the inside climate was considered in a second set of simulations, and a mean temperature rising of 2°C was taken into account. Climate data. The six European locations were: Madrid (Spain); Aliartos (Greece); Bedford (The United Kingdom); Schipol (The Netherlands); Milan (Italy); and Stuttgart (Germany). From every location, the available climate data were monthly mean temperature (To; °C); monthly mean relative humidity (HRo, %) and monthly mean solar irradiation on horizontal surface (So; W m-2). From these monthly values, hourly means were calculated resulting in 24 data for a typical day, each month. Climate model. In this study, cooling strategies resulted from the combination of natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation and cooling pads. The climate model was developed taking into account the following energy fluxes: solar radiation, ventilation (Seginer, 2002), animal heat losses (Blanes and Pedersen, 2005), and loss of energy due to the cooling pads (Seginer, 2002). Results for the present work, show a comparative scene of the inside climate by using different cooling equipment combinations, from natural ventilation to cooling pads. Simulations which include the effects of climate change show the evolution in cooling technologies which will be necessary in this kind of animal houses, in six European locations, if the global temperature rising continues with the current rate. The necessary changes in cooling technologies of animal houses, will be important in Europe when the outside air temperature rising is greater than or equal to two Celsius degrees. Intergovernmental Panel on the Climate Change. 2008. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4syr.pdf I. Seginer. 2002. The Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration Equation as an Element in Greenhouse Ventilation Design. Biosystems Eng. 82(4): 423-439. doi:10.1006/bioe2002.0086 V. Blanes, S. Pedersen. 2005. Ventilation Flow in Pig Houses measured and calculated by Carbon Dioxide, Moisture and Heat Balance Equations. Biosystems Eng. 92(4): 483-493. doi:10.1006/j.biosystemseng.2005.09.002

  19. Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fenton, L.K.; Geissler, P.E.; Haberle, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by ???0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.

  20. Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars.

    PubMed

    Fenton, Lori K; Geissler, Paul E; Haberle, Robert M

    2007-04-01

    For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by approximately 0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies. PMID:17410170

  1. BioFacts: Fueling a stronger economy, Global warming and biofuels emissions

    SciTech Connect

    1994-12-01

    The focus of numerous federal and state regulations being proposed and approved today is the reduction of automobile emissions -- particularly carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), which is the greenhouse gas considered responsible for global warming. Studies conducted by the USDOE through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) indicate that the production and use of biofuels such as biodiesel, ethanol, and methanol could nearly eliminate the contribution of net CO{sub 2} from automobiles. This fact sheet provides and overview of global warming, followed by a summary of NREL`s study results.

  2. Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change.

    PubMed

    Ryghaug, Marianne; Sørensen, Knut Holtan; Naess, Robert

    2011-11-01

    This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics. PMID:22397085

  3. The MJO and global warming: a study in CCSM4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subramanian, Aneesh; Jochum, Markus; Miller, Arthur J.; Neale, Richard; Seo, Hyodae; Waliser, Duane; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2014-04-01

    The change in Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitude and variance in response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the 1° nominal resolution community climate system model, version 4 (CCSM4), which has a reasonable representation of the MJO characteristics both dynamically and statistically. The twentieth century CCSM4 run is compared with the warmest twenty-first century projection (representative concentration pathway 8.5, or RCP8.5). The last 20 years of each simulation are compared in their MJO characteristics, including spatial variance distributions of winds, precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, histograms of event amplitude, phase and duration, and composite maps of phases. The RCP8.5 run exhibits increased variance in intraseasonal precipitation, larger-amplitude MJO events, stronger MJO rainfall in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and a greater frequency of MJO occurrence for phases corresponding to enhanced rainfall in the Indian Ocean sector. These features are consistent with the concept of an increased magnitude for the hydrological cycle under greenhouse warming conditions. Conversely, the number of active MJO days decreases and fewer weak MJO events occur in the future climate state. These results motivate further study of these changes since tropical rainfall variability plays such an important role in the region's socio-economic well being.

  4. Urban amplification of the global warming in Moscow megacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kislov, Alexander; Konstantinov, Pavel; Varentsov, Mikhail; Samsonov, Timofey; Gorlach, Irina; Trusilova, Kristina

    2015-04-01

    Climate changes in the large cities are very important and requires better understanding. The focus of this paper is climate change of the Moscow megacity. Its urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer above the Moscow agglomeration area and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available meteorological observations within the Moscow urban area and surrounding territory allow us to assess the natural climate variations and human-induced climate warming separately. To obtain more precisely viewing on the UHI structure we have included into the analysis the satellite data (Meteosat-10), providing temperature and humidity profiles with high resolution. To investigate the mechanism of the urban amplification we realized the regional climate model COSMO-CLM+TEB. Apart from detailed climate research the model runs will be planned for climate projecting of Moscow agglomeration area. Climate change differences between urban and rural areas are determined by changes of the shape of the UHI and their relationships with changes of building height and density. Therefore, the urban module of COSMO-CLM+TEB model is fed by information from special GIS database contenting both geometric characteristics of the urban canyons and other characteristics of the urban surface. The sources of information were maps belonging to the OpenStreetMap, and digital elevation models SRTM90 and ASTER GDEM v.2 as well. The multiscale GIS database allows us to generate such kind of information with different spatial resolution (200, 500 and 1000 meters).

  5. Contrasting responses of Central Asian rock glaciers to global warming

    PubMed Central

    Sorg, Annina; Kääb, Andreas; Roesch, Andrea; Bigler, Christof; Stoffel, Markus

    2015-01-01

    While the responses of Tien Shan glaciers – and glaciers elsewhere – to climatic changes are becoming increasingly well understood, this is less the case for permafrost in general and for rock glaciers in particular. We use a novel approach to describe the climate sensitivity of rock glaciers and to reconstruct periods of high and low rock glacier activity in the Tien Shan since 1895. Using more than 1500 growth anomalies from 280 trees growing on rock glacier bodies, repeat aerial photography from Soviet archives and high-resolution satellite imagery, we present here the world's longest record of rock glacier movements. We also demonstrate that the rock glaciers exhibit synchronous periods of activity at decadal timescales. Despite the complex energy-balance processes on rock glaciers, periods of enhanced activity coincide with warm summers, and the annual mass balance of Tuyuksu glacier fluctuates asynchronously with rock glacier activity. At multi-decadal timescales, however, the investigated rock glaciers exhibit site-specific trends reflecting different stages of inactivation, seemingly in response to the strong increase in air temperature since the 1970s. PMID:25657095

  6. Contrasting responses of Central Asian rock glaciers to global warming.

    PubMed

    Sorg, Annina; Kääb, Andreas; Roesch, Andrea; Bigler, Christof; Stoffel, Markus

    2015-01-01

    While the responses of Tien Shan glaciers--and glaciers elsewhere--to climatic changes are becoming increasingly well understood, this is less the case for permafrost in general and for rock glaciers in particular. We use a novel approach to describe the climate sensitivity of rock glaciers and to reconstruct periods of high and low rock glacier activity in the Tien Shan since 1895. Using more than 1500 growth anomalies from 280 trees growing on rock glacier bodies, repeat aerial photography from Soviet archives and high-resolution satellite imagery, we present here the world's longest record of rock glacier movements. We also demonstrate that the rock glaciers exhibit synchronous periods of activity at decadal timescales. Despite the complex energy-balance processes on rock glaciers, periods of enhanced activity coincide with warm summers, and the annual mass balance of Tuyuksu glacier fluctuates asynchronously with rock glacier activity. At multi-decadal timescales, however, the investigated rock glaciers exhibit site-specific trends reflecting different stages of inactivation, seemingly in response to the strong increase in air temperature since the 1970s. PMID:25657095

  7. After Kyoto, science still probes global warming causes

    SciTech Connect

    Westbrook, G.

    1998-01-19

    The Kyoto meeting has come and gone. In the US, the treaty still has to be signed by President Bill Clinton and ratified by the Senate, an action that is most unlikely in view of last year`s 95-0 vote on the issue. In the short term 36 senators are up for reelection in November and therefore likely to come under intense pressure to change their positions, to support the Kyoto treaty, and to push for Senate action. Senators will need support, additional inputs, and overall reinforcement of their positions. One area that this writer believes still has much to offer in this context is the quality--more specifically, the lack of quality--of much of the scientific evidence behind this treaty. Part of that subject is the natural variability in the climate. Natural climate variability is based on cyclical forces, random events, and the Earth`s response to these two factors. These forces create the variability in the climate, the background noise above which any signal of anthropogenic warming must rise in order to be detected. A review of key climatic cycles is the subject of this article.

  8. Investigations into Wetland Carbon Sequestration as Remediation for Global Warming

    SciTech Connect

    Thom, Ronald M.; Blanton, Susan L.; Borde, Amy B.; Williams, Greg D.; Woodruff, Dana L.; Huesemann, Michael H.; KW Nehring and SE Brauning

    2002-01-01

    Wetlands can potentially sequester vast amounts of carbon. However, over 50% of wetlands globally have been degraded or lost. Restoration of wetland systems may therefore result in increased sequestration of carbon. Preliminary results of our investigations into atmospheric carbon sequestration by restored coastal wetlands indicate that carbon can be sequestered in substantial quantities in the first 2-50 years after restoration of natural hydrology and sediment accretion processes.

  9. Does Globalization Affect Human Well-Being?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsai, Ming-Chang

    2007-01-01

    The prevailing theorizing of globalization's influence of human well-being suggests to assess both the favorable and unfavorable outcomes. This study formulates a dialectical model, adopts a comprehensive globalization measure and uses a three-wave panel data during 1980-2000 to empirically test direct and indirect effects of global flows' human…

  10. Does Globalization Affect Human Well-Being?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsai, Ming-Chang

    2007-01-01

    The prevailing theorizing of globalization's influence of human well-being suggests to assess both the favorable and unfavorable outcomes. This study formulates a dialectical model, adopts a comprehensive globalization measure and uses a three-wave panel data during 1980-2000 to empirically test direct and indirect effects of global flows' human

  11. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-10-01

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

  12. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-01-01

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599

  13. 135 years of global ocean warming between the Challenger expedition and the Argo Programme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roemmich, Dean; John Gould, W.; Gilson, John

    2012-06-01

    Changing temperature throughout the oceans is a key indicator of climate change. Since the 1960s about 90% of the excess heat added to the Earth's climate system has been stored in the oceans. The ocean's dominant role over the atmosphere, land, or cryosphere comes from its high heat capacity and ability to remove heat from the sea surface by currents and mixing. The longest interval over which instrumental records of subsurface global-scale temperature can be compared is the 135 years between the voyage of HMS Challenger (1872-1876) and the modern data set of the Argo Programme (2004-2010). Argo's unprecedented global coverage permits its comparison with any earlier measurements. This, the first global-scale comparison of Challenger and modern data, shows spatial mean warming at the surface of 0.59°C+/-0.12, consistent with previous estimates of globally averaged sea surface temperature increase. Below the surface the mean warming decreases to 0.39°C+/-0.18 at 366m (200fathoms) and 0.12°C+/-0.07 at 914m (500fathoms). The 0.33°C+/-0.14 average temperature difference from 0 to 700m is twice the value observed globally in that depth range over the past 50 years, implying a centennial timescale for the present rate of global warming. Warming in the Atlantic Ocean is stronger than in the Pacific. Systematic errors in the Challenger data mean that these temperature changes are a lower bound on the actual values. This study underlines the scientific significance of the Challenger expedition and the modern Argo Programme and indicates that globally the oceans have been warming at least since the late-nineteenth or early-twentieth century.

  14. What do global warming impacts really mean to U.S. industry?

    SciTech Connect

    Bendel, W.B.

    1994-12-31

    This paper will explore real-world impacts that global warming could have on US industry. The question of dealing with global warming is, to some extent, an exercise in probability or relative risk management. The difficult part is separating fact from fiction. There is another issue that arises in this intense debate regarding impacts on business and policy. This is the question of whether the impacts are real or only perceived. As the authors have been seen in several environmental situations, the difference between a real or perceived impact can be academic, since a perceived risk often produces real impacts. This paper presents a discussion on what companies can and should do to minimize the perceived risk of global warming on their bottom lines. That is, the basic question is, how can businesses today manage this risk so that objective business decisions can be made? Problems that could be directly or indirectly embedded in the global warming controversy are examined. These include financial, engineering, and international aspects of global climate change. This discussion will include possible impacts on the utility, agricultural, insurance, and financial industries.

  15. Long-term effects of global warming and sublethal ammonia on juvenile rainbow trout

    SciTech Connect

    Linton, T.K.; Morgan, I.J.; Wood, C.M.

    1995-12-31

    Temperature is the single most important factor affecting metabolic rate in poikilothermic animals, which in turn, affects other dependent physiological variables such as growth. To date, there are a critical scarcity of hard experimental data on the chronic effects of small elevations in temperature over the annual cycle (global warming scenario) on fish. The authors conducted a laboratory experiment designed to estimate the cost of growth for juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) living not only in a warmer environment, but in one marginally polluted as well. Juvenile rainbow trout were exposed for 12 months to either ambient temperature hardwater or ambient temperature hardwater plus an additional 2 C, both in the presence and absence of sublethal ammonia. Fish were fed to satiation once per day and their food consumption, growth, routine metabolism, and nitrogen waste excretion rates monitored. The cost of growth varied with season. In summer, it was lowest for fish exposed to ambient temperature with additional ammonia, and highest for fish exposed to +2 C with ammonia. In winter, the cost of growth was lowest in fish exposed to +2 C only, and highest in fish exposed to ammonia only. Overall, the data suggest that an additional +2 C will increase the cost of growth by as much as 10%, while the effect of low level ammonia is seasonally dependent.

  16. Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Okumura, Yuko M.

    2016-01-01

    The Earth's energy budget for the past four decades can now be closed, and it supports anthropogenic greenhouse forcing as the cause for climate warming. However, closure depends on invoking an unrealistically large increase in aerosol cooling during the so-called global warming hiatus since the late 1990s (refs ,) that was due partly to tropical Pacific Ocean cooling. The difficulty with this closure lies in the assumption that the same climate feedback applies to both anthropogenic warming and natural cooling. Here we analyse climate model simulations with and without anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, and show that top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and global mean surface temperature are much less tightly coupled for natural decadal variability than for the greenhouse-gas-induced response, implying distinct climate feedback between anthropogenic warming and natural variability. In addition, we identify a phase difference between top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and global mean surface temperature such that ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during the surface warming hiatus. This result deviates from existing energy theory but we find that it is broadly consistent with observations. Our study highlights the importance of developing metrics that distinguish anthropogenic change from natural variations to attribute climate variability and to estimate climate sensitivity from observations.

  17. The effect of global warming on lightning frequencies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Colin; Rind, David

    1990-01-01

    The first attempt to model global lightning distributions by using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM is reported. Three sets of observations showing the relationship between lightning frequency and cloud top height are shown. Zonally averaged lightning frequency observed by satellite are compared with those calculated using the GISS GCM, and fair agreement is found. The change in lightning frequency for a double CO2 climate is calculated and found to be nearly 2.23 x 10 exp 6 extra lightning flashes per day.

  18. A modern Maunder Minimum would not stave off global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2013-07-01

    Roughly every 11 years, the Sun's activity swings, a peak-to-peak oscillation in the presence of sunspots on the solar surface. From around 1645 to 1715, however, researchers think that this largely reliable trend in solar activity stalled. Now known as the Maunder Minimum, the period saw not just a prolonged dearth of sunspot activity but also a likely reduction in the output of energy from the Sun. Researchers estimate that the Maunder Minimum could have caused a reduction in solar irradiance of around 0.01% to 0.25%, a shift that contributed to a drop of globally averaged surface air temperature of a few tenths of a degree.

  19. Global warming releases microplastic legacy frozen in Arctic Sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obbard, Rachel W.; Sadri, Saeed; Wong, Ying Qi; Khitun, Alexandra A.; Baker, Ian; Thompson, Richard C.

    2014-06-01

    When sea ice forms it scavenges and concentrates particulates from the water column, which then become trapped until the ice melts. In recent years, melting has led to record lows in Arctic Sea ice extent, the most recent in September 2012. Global climate models, such as that of Gregory et al. (2002), suggest that the decline in Arctic Sea ice volume (3.4% per decade) will actually exceed the decline in sea ice extent, something that Laxon et al. (2013) have shown supported by satellite data. The extent to which melting ice could release anthropogenic particulates back to the open ocean has not yet been examined. Here we show that Arctic Sea ice from remote locations contains concentrations of microplastics at least two orders of magnitude greater than those that have been previously reported in highly contaminated surface waters, such as those of the Pacific Gyre. Our findings indicate that microplastics have accumulated far from population centers and that polar sea ice represents a major historic global sink of man-made particulates. The potential for substantial quantities of legacy microplastic contamination to be released to the ocean as the ice melts therefore needs to be evaluated, as do the physical and toxicological effects of plastics on marine life.

  20. The response of flowering time to global warming in a high-altitude plant: the impact of genetics and the environment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change as a result of global warming may seriously affect plant reproduction. This is especially true for alpine plant species because they have few suitable alternative habitats to colonize. It is therefore important to determine the ability of high altitude plants to adapt to environmental...

  1. Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; Wehner, M. F.

    2014-09-01

    The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.

  2. Blunt ocean dynamical thermostat in response of tropical eastern Pacific SST to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Soon-Il; Im, Seul-Hee

    2014-10-01

    Using an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled model (ICM) for the tropical Pacific, we investigated the role of the ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) in regulating the tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) under global warming conditions. The external, uniformly distributed surface heating results in the cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific "cold tongue," and the amplitude of the cooling increases as more heat is added but not simply linearly. Furthermore, an upper bound for the influence of the equatorially symmetric surface heating on the cold tongue cooling exists. The additional heating beyond the upper bound does not cool the cold tongue in a systematic manner. The heat budget analysis suggests that the zonal advection is the primary factor that contributes to such nonlinear SST response. The radiative heating due to the greenhouse effect (hereafter, RHG) that is obtained from the multi-model ensemble of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase III (CMIP3) was externally given to ICM. The RHG obtained from the twentieth century simulation intensified the cold tongue cooling and the subtropical warming, which were further intensified by the RHG from the doubled CO2 concentration simulation. However, the cold tongue cooling was significantly reduced and the negative SST response region was shrunken toward the equator by the RHG from the quadrupled CO2 concentration simulation, while the subtropical warming increased further. A systematic RHG forced experiment having the same spatial pattern of RHG from doubled CO2 concentration simulation with different amplitude of forcing revealed that the ocean dynamical response to global warming tended to enhance the cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific by virtue of meridional advection and upwelling; however, these cooling effects could not fully compensate a given RHG warming as the external forcing becomes larger. Moreover, the feedback by the zonal thermal advection actually exerted the warming over the equatorial region. Therefore, as the global warming is intensified, the cooling over the eastern tropical Pacific by ODT and the negative SST response area are reduced.

  3. Increasing Risk of Droughts and Floods in Taiwan: Aerosols or Global Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. We examine data from 15 Taiwan Central Weather Bureau stations in the period 1961-2011, as well as global data from the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project, V1.0, 1979-2007), to show that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes in the precipitation extremes. Significant increases of annual total dry days and >=7 consecutive dry days in Taiwan during 1961-2011 are shown to be a result of the decrease in light precipitation and increase in heavy precipitation, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher risk of floods and droughts. Similar links are expected over widespread regions of the globe.

  4. Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2

    PubMed

    Joos; Plattner; Stocker; Marchal; Schmittner

    1999-04-16

    A low-order physical-biogeochemical climate model was used to project atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming for scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation weakens in all global warming simulations and collapses at high levels of carbon dioxide. Projected changes in the marine carbon cycle have a modest impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Compared with the control, atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 4 percent at year 2100 and 20 percent at year 2500. The reduction in ocean carbon uptake can be mainly explained by sea surface warming. The projected changes of the marine biological cycle compensate the reduction in downward mixing of anthropogenic carbon, except when the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses. PMID:10205049

  5. Climate. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xianyao; Tung, Ka-Kit

    2014-08-22

    A vacillating global heat sink at intermediate ocean depths is associated with different climate regimes of surface warming under anthropogenic forcing: The latter part of the 20th century saw rapid global warming as more heat stayed near the surface. In the 21st century, surface warming slowed as more heat moved into deeper oceans. In situ and reanalyzed data are used to trace the pathways of ocean heat uptake. In addition to the shallow La Niña-like patterns in the Pacific that were the previous focus, we found that the slowdown is mainly caused by heat transported to deeper layers in the Atlantic and the Southern oceans, initiated by a recurrent salinity anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. Cooling periods associated with the latter deeper heat-sequestration mechanism historically lasted 20 to 35 years. PMID:25146282

  6. Global warming favours light-coloured insects in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Zeuss, Dirk; Brandl, Roland; Brändle, Martin; Rahbek, Carsten; Brunzel, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Associations between biological traits of animals and climate are well documented by physiological and local-scale studies. However, whether an ecophysiological phenomenon can affect large-scale biogeographical patterns of insects is largely unknown. Insects absorb energy from the sun to become mobile, and their colouration varies depending on the prevailing climate where they live. Here we show, using data of 473 European butterfly and dragonfly species, that dark-coloured insect species are favoured in cooler climates and light-coloured species in warmer climates. By comparing distribution maps of dragonflies from 1988 and 2006, we provide support for a mechanistic link between climate, functional traits and species that affects geographical distributions even at continental scales. Our results constitute a foundation for better forecasting the effect of climate change on many insect groups. PMID:24866819

  7. Effects of Global Warming on Predatory Bugs Supported by Data Across Geographic and Seasonal Climatic Gradients.

    PubMed

    Schuldiner-Harpaz, Tarryn; Coll, Moshe

    2013-01-01

    Global warming may affect species abundance and distribution, as well as temperature-dependent morphometric traits. In this study, we first used historical data to document changes in Orius (Heteroptera: Anthocoridae) species assemblage and individual morphometric traits over the past seven decades in Israel. We then tested whether these changes could have been temperature driven by searching for similar patterns across seasonal and geographic climatic gradients in a present survey. The historical records indicated a shift in the relative abundance of dominant Orius species; the relative abundance of O. albidipennis, a desert-adapted species, increased while that of O. laevigatus decreased in recent decades by 6 and 10-15 folds, respectively. These shifts coincided with an overall increase of up to 2.1°C in mean daily temperatures over the last 25 years in Israel. Similar trends were found in contemporary data across two other climatic gradients, seasonal and geographic; O. albidipennis dominated Orius assemblages under warm conditions. Finally, specimens collected in the present survey were significantly smaller than those from the 1980's, corresponding to significantly smaller individuals collected now during warmer than colder seasons. Taken together, results provide strong support to the hypothesis that temperature is the most likely driver of the observed shifts in species composition and body sizes because (1) historical changes in both species assemblage and body size were associated with rising temperatures in the study region over the last few decades; and (2) similar changes were observed as a result of contemporary drivers that are associated with temperature. PMID:23805249

  8. Effects of Global Warming on Predatory Bugs Supported by Data Across Geographic and Seasonal Climatic Gradients

    PubMed Central

    Schuldiner-Harpaz, Tarryn; Coll, Moshe

    2013-01-01

    Global warming may affect species abundance and distribution, as well as temperature-dependent morphometric traits. In this study, we first used historical data to document changes in Orius (Heteroptera: Anthocoridae) species assemblage and individual morphometric traits over the past seven decades in Israel. We then tested whether these changes could have been temperature driven by searching for similar patterns across seasonal and geographic climatic gradients in a present survey. The historical records indicated a shift in the relative abundance of dominant Orius species; the relative abundance of O. albidipennis, a desert-adapted species, increased while that of O. laevigatus decreased in recent decades by 6 and 10–15 folds, respectively. These shifts coincided with an overall increase of up to 2.1°C in mean daily temperatures over the last 25 years in Israel. Similar trends were found in contemporary data across two other climatic gradients, seasonal and geographic; O. albidipennis dominated Orius assemblages under warm conditions. Finally, specimens collected in the present survey were significantly smaller than those from the 1980’s, corresponding to significantly smaller individuals collected now during warmer than colder seasons. Taken together, results provide strong support to the hypothesis that temperature is the most likely driver of the observed shifts in species composition and body sizes because (1) historical changes in both species assemblage and body size were associated with rising temperatures in the study region over the last few decades; and (2) similar changes were observed as a result of contemporary drivers that are associated with temperature. PMID:23805249

  9. Ocean cleaning stations under a changing climate: biological responses of tropical and temperate fish-cleaner shrimp to global warming.

    PubMed

    Rosa, Rui; Lopes, Ana Rita; Pimentel, Marta; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Trübenbach, Katja; Narciso, Luis; Dionísio, Gisela; Pegado, Maria Rita; Repolho, Tiago; Calado, Ricardo; Diniz, Mário

    2014-10-01

    Cleaning symbioses play an important role in the health of certain coastal marine communities. These interspecific associations often occur at specific sites (cleaning stations) where a cleaner organism (commonly a fish or shrimp) removes ectoparasites/damaged tissue from a 'client' (a larger cooperating fish). At present, the potential impact of climate change on the fitness of cleaner organisms remains unknown. This study investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of tropical (Lysmata amboinensis) and temperate (L. seticaudata) cleaner shrimp to global warming. Specifically, thermal limits (CTMax), metabolic rates, thermal sensitivity, heat shock response (HSR), lipid peroxidation [malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration], lactate levels, antioxidant (GST, SOD and catalase) and digestive enzyme activities (trypsin and alkaline phosphatase) at current and warming (+3 °C) temperature conditions. In contrast to the temperate species, CTMax values decreased significantly from current (24-27 °C) to warming temperature conditions (30 °C) for the tropical shrimp, where metabolic thermal sensitivity was affected and the HSR was significantly reduced. MDA levels in tropical shrimp increased dramatically, indicating extreme cellular lipid peroxidation, which was not observed in the temperate shrimp. Lactate levels, GST and SOD activities were significantly enhanced within the muscle tissue of the tropical species. Digestive enzyme activities in the hepatopancreas of both species were significantly decreased by warmer temperatures. Our data suggest that the tropical cleaner shrimp will be more vulnerable to global warming than the temperate Lysmata seticaudata; the latter evolved in a relatively unstable environment with seasonal thermal variations that may have conferred greater adaptive plasticity. Thus, tropical cleaning symbioses may be challenged at a greater degree by warming-related anthropogenic forcing, with potential cascading effects on the health and structuring of tropical coastal communities (e.g. coral reefs). PMID:24771544

  10. Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

    2000-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have approximately 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and. afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have approximately 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error eo. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error eo. We find eo can decrease the global temperature trend by approximately 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors ed and ec present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry. ed arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature and ec is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error ed can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observation made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error ec is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the error ec on the global temperature trend. In one path the entire error ec is placed in the am data while in the other it is placed in the pm data. Global temperature trend is increased or decreased by approximately 0.03 K/decade depending upon this placement. Taking into account all random errors and systematic errors our analysis of MSU observations leads us to conclude that a conservative estimate of the global warming is 0. 11 (+/-) 0.04 K/decade during 1980 to 1998.

  11. Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have about 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have about 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error. We find we can decrease the global temperature trend by about 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature which is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observations made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the errors on the global temperature trend. In one path the entire error is placed in the am data while in the other it is placed in the pm data. Global temperature trend is increased or decreased by about 0.03 K/decade depending upon this placement. Taking into account all random errors and systematic errors our analysis of MSU observations leads us to conclude that a conservative estimate of the global warming is 0. 11 (+-) 0.04 K/decade during 1980 to 1998.

  12. Joint CO2 and CH4 accountability for global warming

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Kirk R.; Desai, Manish A.; Rogers, Jamesine V.; Houghton, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a transparent climate debt index incorporating both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We develop national historic emissions databases for both greenhouse gases to 2005, justifying 1950 as the starting point for global perspectives. We include CO2 emissions from fossil sources [CO2(f)], as well as, in a separate analysis, land use change and forestry. We calculate the CO2(f) and CH4 remaining in the atmosphere in 2005 from 205 countries using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report impulse response functions. We use these calculations to estimate the fraction of remaining global emissions due to each country, which is applied to total radiative forcing in 2005 to determine the combined climate debt from both greenhouse gases in units of milliwatts per square meter per country or microwatts per square meter per person, a metric we term international natural debt (IND). Australia becomes the most indebted large country per capita because of high CH4 emissions, overtaking the United States, which is highest for CO2(f). The differences between the INDs of developing and developed countries decline but remain large. We use IND to assess the relative reduction in IND from choosing between CO2(f) and CH4`control measures and to contrast the imposed versus experienced health impacts from climate change. Based on 2005 emissions, the same hypothetical impact on world 2050 IND could be achieved by decreasing CH4 emissions by 46% as stopping CO2 emissions entirely, but with substantial differences among countries, implying differential optimal strategies. Adding CH4 shifts the basic narrative about differential international accountability for climate change. PMID:23847202

  13. Global warming and the regional persistence of a temperate-zone insect (Tenodera sinensis)

    SciTech Connect

    Rooney, T.P.; Smith, A.T.; Hurd, L.E.

    1996-07-01

    Models based on the paleoecological record predict that animals in temperate regions will respond to global warming by migrating poleward to remain within their temperature tolerance ranges. The effect of global warming on invertebrates is of great concern because of their critical role in ecosystem structure and function. Migration poses a problem for many species because of their limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperature zone univoltine insect. Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae) is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before the killing frost in the autumn; too many allow egg hatch before a killing frost. We used field and laboratory observation on the life history and ecology of this species to predict the effect of global warming on the regional distribution of this insect by the end of the next century. Based on the simplified, best-case, biological assumptions of our model, the geographical range of T. sinensis in eastern North America would be compressed toward the northern part of its present contiguous regional distribution. This and other univoltine temperate species with long maturation periods and low vagility could face regional extinction if global warming predictions are accurate. 61 refs., 3 figs.

  14. Beliefs and Willingness to Act about Global Warming: Where to Focus Science Pedagogy?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Science educators have a key role in empowering students to take action to reduce global warming. This involves assisting students to understand its causes as well as taking pedagogical decisions that have optimal probabilities of leading to students being motivated to take actions based on empirically based science beliefs. To this end New South…

  15. A Collection of Studies Conducted in Education about "Global Warming" Problem

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bozdogan, Aykut Emre

    2011-01-01

    The studies global warming problem conducted in education discipline in the world and in Turkey were analysed for this study. The literature was reviewed extensively especially through the articles in the indexed journals of Ebsco Host, Science Direct, Taylor and Francis and Web of Science databases and this study was conducted according to the…

  16. Students' Communication, Argumentation and Knowledge in a Citizens' Conference on Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Albe, Virginie; Gombert, Marie-Jose

    2012-01-01

    An empirical study on 12th-grade students' engagement on a global warming debate as a citizens' conference is reported. Within the design-based research methodology, an interdisciplinary teaching sequence integrating an initiation to non-violent communication was developed. Students' debates were analyzed according to three dimensions:…

  17. The Teach-in on Global Warming Solutions and Vygotsky: Fostering Ecological Action and Environmental Citizenship

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lysack, Mishka

    2009-01-01

    The Teach-in on Global Warming Solutions is part of a larger socio-environmental movement concerned with combating climate change. Highlighting the history and elements of the teach-in as a model of learning, the article examines the teach-in movement, using a local event at the University of Calgary as an illustration. Conceptual resources from…

  18. Climate of Concern--A Search for Effective Strategies for Teaching Children about Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taber, Fiona; Taylor, Neil

    2009-01-01

    Recent research suggests that the issue of global warming is one of great concern for Australian children. This point to the need for effective teaching about this issue. Children should be properly informed about actions that help reduce carbon emissions as this may give them a sense of empowerment and go some way to alleviating concerns. This…

  19. Fear Appeals and College Students' Attitudes and Behavioral Intentions toward Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Shu-Chu Sarrina

    2014-01-01

    This study used Witte's extended parallel process model to examine the relationships between the use of fear appeals and college students' attitudes and behavioral intentions toward global warming. A pretest-posttest quasi-experimental design was adopted. Three hundred forty-one college students from six communication courses at two…

  20. Omani Students' Views about Global Warming: Beliefs about Actions and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ambusaidi, Abdullah; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin; Taylor, Neil

    2012-01-01

    A 44-item questionnaire was designed to determine students' views about how useful various "specific" actions might be in helping to reduce global warming, their willingness to undertake these various actions and the extent to which these two might be related. The instrument was administered to students in Grades 6 to 12 (N = 1532) from 12 schools…

  1. Mass Media and Global Warming: A Public Arenas Model of the Greenhouse Effect's Scientific Roots.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neuzil, Mark

    1995-01-01

    Uses the Public Arenas model to examine the historical roots of the greenhouse effect issue as communicated in scientific literature from the early 1800s to modern times. Utilizes a constructivist approach to discuss several possible explanations for the rise and fall of global warming as a social problem in the scientific arena. (PA)

  2. The relationship between personal experience and belief in the reality of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myers, Teresa A.; Maibach, Edward W.; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Akerlof, Karen; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, we address the chicken-or-egg question posed by two alternative explanations for the relationship between perceived personal experience of global warming and belief certainty that global warming is happening: Do observable climate impacts create opportunities for people to become more certain of the reality of global warming, or does prior belief certainty shape people's perceptions of impacts through a process of motivated reasoning? We use data from a nationally representative sample of Americans surveyed first in 2008 and again in 2011; these longitudinal data allow us to evaluate the causal relationships between belief certainty and perceived experience, assessing the impact of each on the other over time. Among the full survey sample, we found that both processes occurred: `experiential learning', where perceived personal experience of global warming led to increased belief certainty, and `motivated reasoning', where high belief certainty influenced perceptions of personal experience. We then tested and confirmed the hypothesis that motivated reasoning occurs primarily among people who are already highly engaged in the issue whereas experiential learning occurs primarily among people who are less engaged in the issue, which is particularly important given that approximately 75% of American adults currently have low levels of engagement.

  3. ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR REDUCING NET GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL IN IRRIGATED CROPPING SYSTEMS IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A cropping systems field study initiated in 1999 was used in this analysis to evaluate the economic feasibility of achieving reductions in net global warming potential through changes in cropping system management. Crop yield and management information collected from 2000-2005 were used to estimate ...

  4. Global Warming Potential of Long-Term Grazing Management Systems in the Northern Great Plains

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Grazing lands in the northern Great Plains of North America are extensive, occupying over 50 Mha. Yet grazing land contributions to, or mitigation of, global warming potential (GWP) is largely unknown for the region. The objective of this study was to estimate GWP for three long-term (70 to 90 yr)...

  5. Australian Secondary Students' Views about Global Warming: Beliefs about Actions, and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyes, Edward; Skamp, Keith; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    A 44-item questionnaire was constructed to determine secondary students' views about how useful various specific actions might be at reducing global warming, their willingness to undertake the various actions, and the extent to which these two might be linked. Responses (n = 500) were obtained from students in years 7 to 10 in three schools in

  6. HYDROLOGIC SENSITIVITIES OF THE SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASIN, CA TO GLOBAL WARMING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The hydrologic sensitivities of four medium-sized mountainous catchments in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins to long-term global warming were analyzed. he hydrologic response of these catchments, all of which are dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, were simulated by t...

  7. Debating Global Warming in Media Discussion Forums: Strategies Enacted by "Persistent Deniers" and Implications for Schooling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowen, G. Michael; Rodger, Valerie

    2008-01-01

    Newspapers and other media are often used as a source of information on science issues, both by the public and teachers in classrooms. Over six months, we collected discussions of global warming issues from the online forums of a national newspaper. Our analysis of these contributions suggests there is a considerable effort in these forums,…

  8. Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. Corn Belt?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agriculture is both an anthropogenic source of CO2, CH4, and N2O, and a sink for CO2 and CH4. Management can impact agriculture's net global warming potential (GWP) by changing source and/or sink. This study compared GWP among three crop management systems: business as usual (BAU), optimum greenhous...

  9. Medical Providers as Global Warming and Climate Change Health Educators: A Health Literacy Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Villagran, Melinda; Weathers, Melinda; Keefe, Brian; Sparks, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to wildlife and the environment, but it also one of the most pervasive threats to human health. The goal of this study was to examine the relationships among dimensions of health literacy, patient education about global warming and climate change (GWCC), and health behaviors. Results reveal that patients who have higher…

  10. Social Activism in Elementary Science Education: A Science, Technology, and Society Approach to Teach Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lester, Benjamin T.; Ma, Li; Lee, Okhee; Lambert, Julie

    2006-01-01

    As part of a large-scale instructional intervention research, this study examined elementary students' science knowledge and awareness of social activism with regard to an increased greenhouse effect and global warming. The study involved fifth-grade students from five elementary schools of varying demographic makeup in a large urban school…

  11. Fear Appeals and College Students' Attitudes and Behavioral Intentions toward Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Shu-Chu Sarrina

    2014-01-01

    This study used Witte's extended parallel process model to examine the relationships between the use of fear appeals and college students' attitudes and behavioral intentions toward global warming. A pretest-posttest quasi-experimental design was adopted. Three hundred forty-one college students from six communication courses at two

  12. Omani Students' Views about Global Warming: Beliefs about Actions and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ambusaidi, Abdullah; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin; Taylor, Neil

    2012-01-01

    A 44-item questionnaire was designed to determine students' views about how useful various "specific" actions might be in helping to reduce global warming, their willingness to undertake these various actions and the extent to which these two might be related. The instrument was administered to students in Grades 6 to 12 (N = 1532) from 12 schools

  13. Beliefs and Willingness to Act about Global Warming: Where to Focus Science Pedagogy?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Science educators have a key role in empowering students to take action to reduce global warming. This involves assisting students to understand its causes as well as taking pedagogical decisions that have optimal probabilities of leading to students being motivated to take actions based on empirically based science beliefs. To this end New South

  14. Students' Communication, Argumentation and Knowledge in a Citizens' Conference on Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Albe, Virginie; Gombert, Marie-Jose

    2012-01-01

    An empirical study on 12th-grade students' engagement on a global warming debate as a citizens' conference is reported. Within the design-based research methodology, an interdisciplinary teaching sequence integrating an initiation to non-violent communication was developed. Students' debates were analyzed according to three dimensions:

  15. The Teach-in on Global Warming Solutions and Vygotsky: Fostering Ecological Action and Environmental Citizenship

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lysack, Mishka

    2009-01-01

    The Teach-in on Global Warming Solutions is part of a larger socio-environmental movement concerned with combating climate change. Highlighting the history and elements of the teach-in as a model of learning, the article examines the teach-in movement, using a local event at the University of Calgary as an illustration. Conceptual resources from

  16. Social Activism in Elementary Science Education: A Science, Technology, and Society Approach to Teach Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lester, Benjamin T.; Ma, Li; Lee, Okhee; Lambert, Julie

    2006-01-01

    As part of a large-scale instructional intervention research, this study examined elementary students' science knowledge and awareness of social activism with regard to an increased greenhouse effect and global warming. The study involved fifth-grade students from five elementary schools of varying demographic makeup in a large urban school

  17. Medical Providers as Global Warming and Climate Change Health Educators: A Health Literacy Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Villagran, Melinda; Weathers, Melinda; Keefe, Brian; Sparks, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to wildlife and the environment, but it also one of the most pervasive threats to human health. The goal of this study was to examine the relationships among dimensions of health literacy, patient education about global warming and climate change (GWCC), and health behaviors. Results reveal that patients who have higher

  18. Australian Secondary Students' Views about Global Warming: Beliefs about Actions, and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyes, Edward; Skamp, Keith; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    A 44-item questionnaire was constructed to determine secondary students' views about how useful various specific actions might be at reducing global warming, their willingness to undertake the various actions, and the extent to which these two might be linked. Responses (n = 500) were obtained from students in years 7 to 10 in three schools in…

  19. Sensitivity of the regional response to global warming associated with land cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalnay, E.; Cai, M.; Lim, Y.

    2007-05-01

    By now there is little doubt left about the fact that the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) is producing global warming. The question is whether the regional response to the GHG effect is uniform or depends on the land characteristics and use. In this paper we show that the response is very dependent on the type of land cover and use, and desertic and urban areas get more than their "fair share" of GHG warming, whereas broadleaf forested areas have locally reduced warming. We use the Observation minus Reanalysis (OMR) surface temperature trends method suggested by Kalnay and Cai (Nature, 2003) to provide an estimate of the impact of surface effects on regional warming (or cooling). It takes advantage of the insensitivity of the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (NNR) to land surface type, and eliminates the natural variability due to changes in circulation (since they are also included in the reanalysis), thus separating surface effects from greenhouse warming. Kalnay et al. (JGR, 2006) showed that over the US the OMR average is small, but it has different regional signs, in good agreement with the regions of "urban heating and cooling" obtained by Hansen et al (JGR 2001). Lim et al. (GRL, 2005) compared two global observation-based data sets (CRU and GHCN) and two different global reanalyses (NCEP-NCAR and ERA40) and MODIS-derived land classes. The results (Figure 3) showed that the OMR trends have a strong dependence on the land-type, and that the OMR land-type dependence is similar using either the NCEP-NCAR or the ERA-40 Reanalyses. Not unexpectedly, the ERA40 trends have about half the amplitude, since this reanalysis uses air surface temperature observations indirectly (from an off-line OI analysis of surface temperature) to initialize the soil temperature and moisture, so that the ERA40 surface temperature are partially influenced by surface observations that are dependent on land surface properties. The results show that OMR warming over barren areas is larger than most other land types, and that urban areas show a large warming second only to barren areas. Croplands with agricultural activity show a larger warming than natural broadleaf forests. The overall assessment indicates surface warming is larger for areas that are barren, anthropogenically developed, or covered with needle-leaf forests. Lim et al (2006, submitted to JAMC) extended this study to establish the dependence of OMR on NDVI (and hence on the Leaf Area Index, LAI), and once again found very robust results. The results indicate that that OMR decreases with NDVI. Areas with little vegetation suffer from warming higher than their "fair GHG share", whereas for highly vegetated zones, the OMR is small or negative.

  20. Changes in solar energy availability for south-eastern Europe with respect to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartók, Blanka

    The aim of this study is to estimate projected changes of global radiation parallel to the global warming in south-eastern Europe. As a first step, statistical dependence of global radiation from local cloud indicators is analysed for a short period (1992-1996). Global radiation is derived from METEOSAT visual images, whereas cloud coverage is described in two parallel ways: surface-based visual cloudiness from 171 stations of the region and satellite based Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR). In the second step regression coefficients of these cloud indicators against the hemispherical mean temperature are determined using an adaptation of the method of instrumental variables in recent monotonously warming periods: i.e. 1973-1996 for cloudiness, and 1979-2000 for the OLR. The local variables are used as independent variables of the first step and as dependent variables of the second one. As the last step of the whole computation the regression coefficients derived in the first and second step are combined to calculate expected change of global radiation. The product of the two regression coefficients typically yields a few percent of relative changes in global radiation considering 0.5 K hemispherical warming. The signs of the changes are overwhelmingly positive, indicating more solar energy expected to be available for agricultural and industrial purposes.

  1. Can the desert annual Salvia columbariae adapt to global warming?

    SciTech Connect

    Soulanille, E.L.; Bierzychudek, P. |

    1995-06-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of {open_quotes}greenhouse{close_quotes} gases are increasing, and most atmospheric scientists agree that an increase in global mean air temperatures will follow. The predictions about possible biological consequences range from {open_quotes}significant{close_quotes} to {open_quotes}catastrophic.{close_quotes} To explore the possible effects of elevated temperatures on a winter germinating desert annual, we grew seeds from two populations of Salvia columbariae in controlled environments mimicking normal temperatures for those populations and in temperatures 4 C higher. Measures of individual fitness were successful germination and the number of seeds produced. For both populations, fitness was dramatically lower in the elevated temperatures: both percent germination and seed number were significantly reduced. Sixty-five percent of the family groups (same mother) failed to flower under the elevated temperatures, whereas, all of the families grown in the normal temperatures flowered and produced seeds. There were also differences between families grown in the increased temperature treatments, implying genetic differences in high temperature tolerance. Our results suggest that while some families will be able to survive and adapt to elevated air temperatures, most will not. This could lead to a serious eroding of the genetic variability of these populations and possibly hamper their ability to respond to other kinds of environmental change.

  2. The impact of global warming on river runoff

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

    1992-01-01

    A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the annual river runoff for 33 of the world's major rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO2 climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4 x 5 deg, but the runoff from each model grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2 x 2.5 deg resolution. The computed runoff depends on the model's precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage. For the doubled CO2 climate, the runoff increased for 25 of the 33 rivers, and in most cases the increases coincide with increased rainfall within the drainage basins. There were runoff increases in all rivers in high northern latitudes, with a maximum increase of 47 percent. At low latitudes there were both increases and decreases ranging from a 96 increase to a 43 percent decrease. The effect of the simplified model assumptions of land-atmosphere interactions on the results is discussed.

  3. Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, David L.; Finnegan, William

    2009-10-01

    Greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds regulate outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). A potential delivery mechanism for the seeding material is already in place: the airline industry. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are relatively short, the climate might return to its normal state within months after stopping the geoengineering experiment. The main known drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It does not have many of the drawbacks that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has.

  4. The Effects of Instruction with Visual Materials on the Development of Preservice Elementary Teachers' Knowledge and Attitude towards Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bozdogan, Aykut Emre

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed to identify the erroneous knowledge and misconceptions of preservice elementary teachers about global warming and examine the effects of instruction with visual materials on rectifying these misconceptions and fostering a positive attitude towards the issue of global warming. Having a quasi-experimental design, the study made use…

  5. Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meehan, Casey R.

    2012-01-01

    Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz…

  6. Student Teachers' Conceptions about Global Warming and Changes in Their Conceptions during Pre-Service Education: A Cross Sectional Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cimer, Sabiha Odabasi; Cimer, Atilla; Ursavas, Nazihan

    2011-01-01

    Global warming is one of the important environmental problems whose dangerous effects are increasing gradually. The study reported herein aimed to reveal student teachers' conceptions about global warming and the effect of biology teacher education program on their awareness of this environmental issue. An open-ended questionnaire was used to

  7. Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meehan, Casey R.

    2012-01-01

    Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz

  8. Student Teachers' Conceptions about Global Warming and Changes in Their Conceptions during Pre-Service Education: A Cross Sectional Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cimer, Sabiha Odabasi; Cimer, Atilla; Ursavas, Nazihan

    2011-01-01

    Global warming is one of the important environmental problems whose dangerous effects are increasing gradually. The study reported herein aimed to reveal student teachers' conceptions about global warming and the effect of biology teacher education program on their awareness of this environmental issue. An open-ended questionnaire was used to…

  9. Interhemispheric asymmetry in transient global warming: The role of Drake Passage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutchinson, David K.; England, Matthew H.; Santoso, Agus; Hogg, Andrew Mcc.

    2013-04-01

    Climate models predict that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) will warm faster than the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in response to increasing greenhouse gases, and observations show that this trend has already begun to occur. This interhemispheric asymmetry has largely been attributed to land-ocean differences between the hemispheres and Arctic sea ice melt, while the role of ocean currents in setting this asymmetry is less well understood. This study isolates the impact of an open Southern Ocean gateway upon the interhemispheric asymmetry in transient global warming by forcing a fully coupled climate model with an increasing CO2 scenario with and without a land bridge across Drake Passage (DP). It is found that over the transient warming period, the NH-SH surface warming asymmetry is reduced in the DP closed case, by approximately 41% for sea surface temperature and approximately 6% for surface air temperature. In the DP open case, sea ice extent is far greater in the SH than in the DP closed case, whereas the sea ice response to warming in the NH is insensitive to whether or not DP is closed. These results illustrate that part of the interhemispheric asymmetry in surface warming is due to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) thermally isolating Antarctica. The ACC limits ocean heat transport across the DP latitudes and allows a much greater coverage of sea ice in the Southern Ocean than would be the case in the absence of a circumpolar ocean.

  10. Public health problems and global warming faced by developing countries

    SciTech Connect

    Moreno, A.R.

    1996-12-31

    Climatic change potentially causes direct and indirect impacts on human health, resulting in a net increase in morbidity and associated mortality. Impacts would be greater in communities with higher exposure and with fewer technical and social resources. Age, skin pigmentation, hygiene level, socio-economic and health status, are determinants of the net effects. Climatic change will have indirect health effects by changing natural ecosystems, affecting such aspects as food production, patterns of vector-borne diseases, a number of non-infectious diseases, and unknown infections. The health effects, occurring largely as a result of increases in biologically effective UVR, are expected to consist of: increase in malignant and nonmalignant skin cancer; several eye diseases (primarily cataract); and possible alterations in the immune response. Some of the largest public health issues will be respiratory diseases brought about by increased air pollution, exacerbation of allergic disorders, and deaths and injuries from extreme weather events. Additionally, vaccination programs may be ineffective and nutritional requirements may be different in heavily sun-exposed populations.

  11. Study on monitoring global warming by using the data of Schumann resonance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobara, Y.; Harada, T.; Hayakawa, M.; Sekiguchi, M.; Ohta, K.

    2009-12-01

    Identifying the global warming has become a more and more important issue for the present society and monitoring the global temperature is indispensable for measures against global warming. In this paper we use a long time record of the Schumann resonance (SR) intensity observed in Nakatsugawa, Japan and global lighting activity to study the global temperature change. SR is the electromagnetic resonance phenomenon in the earth-ionosphere waveguide driven by a cumulative effect of the global thunderstorm activity and observed anywhere on the earth round the clock. The cumulative magnetic field energy from the first and second modes of SR intensity for 4 years is derived for two horizontal components. The monthly dependence of field energy is compared with the global lightning and temperature data for the corresponding time period. As a result SR energy is found to be correlated well with the temperature in the middle latitude and global lightning activity especially in Africa. Further more the principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to extract the periodical component in each data set. The annual component of SR energy has a significant correlation with the middle latitude temperature, whilst the semi-annual component of the SR energy has a significant correlation with low latitude temperature.

  12. HOW WILL GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PARASITES?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    : Parasites are integral components of complex biotic assemblages that comprise the biosphere. Host switching correlated with episodic climate-change events are common in evolutionary and ecological time. Global climate change produces ecological perturbation, manifested in major geographical/pheno...

  13. Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, John; Nuccitelli, Dana; Green, Sarah A.; Richardson, Mark; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Way, Robert; Jacobs, Peter; Skuce, Andrew

    2013-06-01

    We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991-2011 matching the topics ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors’ self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research.

  14. Could a future "Grand Solar Minimum" like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Marsh, Daniel R.

    2013-05-01

    A future Maunder Minimum type grand solar minimum, with total solar irradiance reduced by 0.25% over a 50 year period from 2020 to 2070, is imposed in a future climate change scenario experiment (RCP4.5) using, for the first time, a global coupled climate model that includes ozone chemistry and resolved stratospheric dynamics (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model). This model has been shown to simulate two amplifying mechanisms that produce regional signals of decadal climate variability comparable to observations, and thus is considered a credible tool to simulate the Sun's effects on Earth's climate. After the initial decrease of solar radiation in 2020, globally averaged surface air temperature cools relative to the reference simulation by up to several tenths of a degree Centigrade. By the end of the grand solar minimum in 2070, the warming nearly catches up to the reference simulation. Thus, a future grand solar minimum could slow down but not stop global warming.

  15. A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.

    2012-01-01

    How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

  16. Polar Low genesis over the North Pacific under different global warming scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Fei; von Storch, Hans; Zeng, Lili; Du, Yan

    2014-12-01

    Following an earlier climatological study of North Pacific Polar Lows by employing dynamical downscaling of NCEP1 reanalysis in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the characteristics of Polar Low genesis over the North Pacific under different global warming scenarios are investigated. Simulations based on three scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios were conducted using a global climate model (ECHAM5) and used to examine systematic changes in the occurrence of Polar Lows over the twenty first century. The results show that with more greenhouse gas emissions, global air temperature would rise, and the frequency of Polar Lows would decrease. With sea ice melting, the distribution of Polar Low genesis shows a northward shift. In the scenarios with stronger warming there is a larger reduction in the number of Polar Lows.

  17. Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin, California, to global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Lettenmaier, D.P. ); Gan, Thian Yew )

    1990-01-01

    The hydrologic sensitivities of four medium-sized mountainous catchments in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins to long-term global warming were analyzed. The hydrologic response of these catchments, all of which are dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, were simulated by the coupling of the snowmelt and the soil moisture accounting models of the U.S. National Weather Service River Forecast System. In all four catchments the global warming pattern, which was indexed to CO{sub 2} doubling scenarios simulated by three (global) general circulation models, produced a major seasonal shift in the snow accumulation pattern. Under the alternative climate scenarios more winter precipitation fell as rain instead of snow, and winter runoff increased while spring snowmelt runoff decreased. In addition, large increases in the annual flood maxima were simulated, primarily due to an increase in rain-on-snow events, with the time of occurrence of many large floods shifting from spring to winter.

  18. Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin, California, to global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Lettenmaier, D.P.; Gan, T.Y.

    1990-01-01

    The hydrologic sensitivities of four medium-sized mountainous catchments in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins to long-term global warming were analyzed. The hydrologic response of these catchments, all of which are dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, were simulated by the coupling of the snowmelt and the soil moisture accounting models of the U.S. National Weather Service River Forecast System. In all four catchments the global warming pattern, which was indexed to CO2 doubling scenarios simulated by three (global) general circulation models, produced a major seasonal shift in the snow accumulation pattern. Under the alternative climate scenarios more winter precipitation fell as rain instead of snow, and winter runoff increased while spring snowmelt runoff decreased. In addition, large increases in the annual flood maxima were simulated, primarily due to an increase in rain-on-snow events, with the time of ocurrence of many large floods shifting from spring to winter.

  19. Global warming alters sound transmission: differential impact on the prey detection ability of echolocating bats

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Jinhong; Koselj, Klemen; Zsebők, Sándor; Siemers, Björn M.; Goerlitz, Holger R.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change impacts the biogeography and phenology of plants and animals, yet the underlying mechanisms are little known. Here, we present a functional link between rising temperature and the prey detection ability of echolocating bats. The maximum distance for echo-based prey detection is physically determined by sound attenuation. Attenuation is more pronounced for high-frequency sound, such as echolocation, and is a nonlinear function of both call frequency and ambient temperature. Hence, the prey detection ability, and thus possibly the foraging efficiency, of echolocating bats and susceptible to rising temperatures through climate change. Using present-day climate data and projected temperature rises, we modelled this effect for the entire range of bat call frequencies and climate zones around the globe. We show that depending on call frequency, the prey detection volume of bats will either decrease or increase: species calling above a crossover frequency will lose and species emitting lower frequencies will gain prey detection volume, with crossover frequency and magnitude depending on the local climatic conditions. Within local species assemblages, this may cause a change in community composition. Global warming can thus directly affect the prey detection ability of individual bats and indirectly their interspecific interactions with competitors and prey. PMID:24335559

  20. Transgenerational plasticity mitigates the impact of global warming to offspring sex ratios.

    PubMed

    Donelson, Jennifer M; Munday, Philip L

    2015-08-01

    Global warming poses a threat to organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination because it can affect operational sex ratios. Using a multigenerational experiment with a marine fish, we provide the first evidence that parents developing from early life at elevated temperatures can adjust their offspring gender through nongenetic and nonbehavioural means. However, this adjustment was not possible when parents reproduced, but did not develop, at elevated temperatures. Complete restoration of the offspring sex ratio occurred when parents developed at 1.5 °C above the present-day average temperature for one generation. However, only partial improvement in the sex ratio occurred at 3.0 °C above average conditions, even after two generations, suggesting a limitation to transgenerational plasticity when developmental temperature is substantially increased. This study highlights the potential for transgenerational plasticity to ameliorate some impacts of climate change and that development from early life may be essential for expression of transgenerational plasticity in some traits. PMID:25820432