Science.gov

Sample records for affecting global warming

  1. Global Warming?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eichman, Julia Christensen; Brown, Jeff A.

    1994-01-01

    Presents information and data on an experiment designed to test whether different atmosphere compositions are affected by light and temperature during both cooling and heating. Although flawed, the experiment should help students appreciate the difficulties that researchers face when trying to find evidence of global warming. (PR)

  2. Global Warming.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hileman, Bette

    1989-01-01

    States the foundations of the theory of global warming. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the warming trend. Recognizes many sources for the warming and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)

  3. The rise of global warming skepticism: exploring affective image associations in the United States over time.

    PubMed

    Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2012-06-01

    This article explores how affective image associations to global warming have changed over time. Four nationally representative surveys of the American public were conducted between 2002 and 2010 to assess public global warming risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behavior. Affective images (positive or negative feelings and cognitive representations) were collected and content analyzed. The results demonstrate a large increase in "naysayer" associations, indicating extreme skepticism about the issue of climate change. Multiple regression analyses found that holistic affect and "naysayer" associations were more significant predictors of global warming risk perceptions than cultural worldviews or sociodemographic variables, including political party and ideology. The results demonstrate the important role affective imagery plays in judgment and decision-making processes, how these variables change over time, and how global warming is currently perceived by the American public. PMID:22486296

  4. Health in the hot zone - How could global warming affect humans?

    SciTech Connect

    Monastersky, R.

    1996-04-06

    A soon-to-be-released report from the World Health Organization examines the health effects of global warming, calling climate change one of the largest public health challenges for the upcoming century. The issue extends beyond tropical illness: deaths caused directly by heat, dwindling agricultural yields etc. could all affect human health. This article looks at the following health related effects and gives an overview of the scientific information available on each: temperature and mortality; tropical trouble, including vecorborne diseases and increase in susceptable populations; and waterborne problems such as cholera, harmful algal bloomes, food shortages.

  5. Is the distribution of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus ecotypes in the Mediterranean Sea affected by global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mella-Flores, D.; Mazard, S.; Humily, F.; Partensky, F.; Mahé, F.; Bariat, L.; Courties, C.; Marie, D.; Ras, J.; Mauriac, R.; Jeanthon, C.; Bendif, E. M.; Ostrowski, M.; Scanlan, D. J.; Garczarek, L.

    2011-05-01

    Biological communities populating the Mediterranean Sea, which is situated at the northern boundary of the subtropics, are often claimed to be particularly affected by global warming. This is indicated, for instance, by the introduction of (sub)tropical species of fish or invertebrates that can displace local species. This raises the question of whether microbial communities are similarly affected, especially in the Levantine basin where sea surface temperatures have risen in recent years. In this paper, the genetic diversity of the two most abundant members of the phytoplankton community, the picocyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, was examined on a transect from the South coast of France to Cyprus in the summer of 2008 (BOUM cruise). Diversity was studied using dot blot hybridization with clade-specific 16S rRNA oligonucleotide probes and clone libraries of the 16S-23S ribosomal DNA Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) region. Data were compared with those obtained during the PROSOPE cruise held almost a decade earlier, with a focus on the abundance of clades that may constitute bioindicators of warm waters. During both cruises, the dominant Prochlorococcus clade in the upper mixed layer at all stations was HLI, a clade typical of temperate waters, whereas the HLII clade, the dominant group in (sub)tropical waters, was only present at very low concentrations. The Synechococcus community was dominated by clades I, III and IV in the northwestern waters of the Gulf of Lions and by clade III and groups genetically related to clades WPC1 and VI in the rest of the Mediterranean Sea. In contrast, only a few sequences of clade II, a group typical of warm waters, were observed. These data indicate that local cyanobacterial populations have not yet been displaced by their (sub)tropical counterparts. This is discussed in the context of the low phosphorus concentrations found in surface waters in the eastern Mediterranean basin, as this may constitute a barrier to the colonization of these waters by alien picocyanobacterial groups.

  6. Global warning, global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Benarde, M.A. )

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster.

  7. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-print Network

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  8. The impact of global warming on floral traits that affect the selfing rate in a high-altitude plant

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Changes in the abiotic environment, as those expected under global warming, can influence plant mating systems through changes in floral traits that affect selfing. Herkogamy (spatial separation of male and female functions within a flower), dichogamy (temporal separation) and total flower number af...

  9. Global Warming Observations

    E-print Network

    Schofield, Jeremy

    Global Warming Observations: 1. Global temperature has been gradually rising in recent years #15 in range 8000 12000 nm { CFC's, methane and N 2 O important for global warming even though concentra- tions in concentration of \\greenhouse gases" like CO 2 What determines global temperature? Energy budget of earth: 1

  10. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity affected by cropping sequence and nitrogen fertilization

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Little information is available about management practice effects on the net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) under dryland cropping systems. We evaluated the effects of cropping sequences (conventional-tillage malt barley [Hordeum vulgaris L.]–fallow [CTB-F], no-ti...

  11. Cows Causing Global Warming

    E-print Network

    Hacker, Randi

    2008-08-06

    Broadcast Transcript: Remember when President Reagan blamed trees for air pollution? Well now the Japanese are blaming cows for global warming. Apparently, the methane emissions from burping cows account for 5% of all global greenhouse gases. Simple...

  12. EPA GLOBAL WARMING WEBSITE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. EPA Global Warming Site strives to present or direct viewers to the most timely social, scientific, and logistic information available on the global warming issue. The site offers links to related sites as well as its own selection of material, which is expected to grow ...

  13. Is global warming affecting cave temperatures? Experimental and model data from a paradigmatic case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domínguez-Villar, David; Lojen, Sonja; Krklec, Kristina; Baker, Andy; Fairchild, Ian J.

    2015-08-01

    This research focuses on the mechanisms that transfer the variations in surface atmospheric temperature into caves to evaluate whether they record the warming trend of recent decades. As a study case, we use the data from a hall in Postojna Cave (Slovenia), which was monitored from 2009 to 2013. The low-frequency thermal variability of this cave chamber is dominated by the conduction of heat from the surface through the bedrock. We implemented a thermal conduction model that reproduces low-frequency thermal gradients similar to those measured in the cave. At the 37 m depth of this chamber, the model confirms that the bedrock is already recording the local expression of global warming with a delay of 20-25 years, and predicts a cave warming during the coming decades with a mean rate of 0.015 ± 0.004 C year-1. However, because of the transfer of surface atmosphere thermal variability depends on the duration of the oscillations, the thermal anomalies with periods 7-15 years in duration have delay times <10 years at the studied hall. The inter-annual variability of the surface atmospheric temperature is recorded in this cave hall, although due to the different delay and amplitude attenuation that depends on the duration of the anomalies, the cave temperature signal differs significantly from that at the surface. As the depth of the cave is a major factor in thermal conduction, this is a principal control on whether or not a cave has already recorded the onset of global warming.

  14. Lesson Plan: Global Warming General Description

    E-print Network

    Martins, Emília

    Lesson Plan: Global Warming General Description This activity is designed to expose students a community. Students explore some of the ecological consequences of global warming by interpreting data sets and answering questions. Objectives 1. Students will learn how global warming affects physiology, distribution

  15. Latitudinal Variation in Carbon Storage Can Help Predict Changes in Swamps Affected by Global Warming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Middleton, Beth A.; McKee, Karen

    2004-01-01

    Plants may offer our best hope of removing greenhouse gases (gases that contribute to global warming) emitted to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. At the same time, global warming could change environments so that natural plant communities will either need to shift into cooler climate zones, or become extirpated (Prasad and Iverson, 1999; Crumpacker and others, 2001; Davis and Shaw, 2001). It is impossible to know the future, but studies combining field observation of production and modeling can help us make predictions about what may happen to these wetland communities in the future. Widespread wetland types such as baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps in the southeastern portion of the United States could be especially good at carbon sequestration (amount of CO2 stored by forests) from the atmosphere. They have high levels of production and sometimes store undecomposed dead plant material in wet conditions with low oxygen, thus keeping gases stored that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere (fig. 1). To study the ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon, our project has taken two approaches. The first analysis looked at published data to develop an idea (hypothesis) of how production levels change across a temperature gradient in the baldcypress region (published data study). The second study tested this idea by comparing production levels across a latitudinal range by using swamps in similar field conditions (ongoing carbon storage study). These studies will help us make predictions about the future ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon in soil and plant biomass, as well as the ability of these forests to shift northward with global warming.

  16. Economic Theory and Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uzawa, Hirofumi

    2003-08-01

    Hirofumi Uzawa's theoretical framework addresses three major problems concerning global warming and other environmental hazards. First, it considers all phenomena involved with global environmental issues that exhibit externalities of one kind or another. Secondly, it covers global environmental issues involving international and intergenerational equity and justice. Lastly, it deals with global environmental issues concerning the management of the atmosphere, the oceans, water, soil, and other natural resources having to be decided by a consensus of affected countries.

  17. Global warming elucidated

    SciTech Connect

    Shen, S.

    1995-03-01

    The meaning of global warming and its relevance to everyday life is explained. Simple thermodynamics is used to predict an oscillatory nature of the change in climate due to global warming. Global warming causes extreme events and bad weather in the near term. In the long term it may cause the earth to transition to another equilibrium state through many oscillation in climatic patterns. The magnitudes of these oscillations could easily exceed the difference between the end points. The author further explains why many no longer fully understands the nature and magnitudes of common phenomena such as storms and wind speeds because of these oscillations, and the absorptive properties of clouds. The author links the increase in duration of the El Nino to global warming, and further predicts public health risks as the earth transitions to another equilibrium state in its young history.

  18. Global warming, bad weather, insurance losses and the global economy

    SciTech Connect

    Low, N.C.; Shen, S.

    1996-09-01

    Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. The impact on the insurance industry is described. Why global warming in the near term causes very bad weather is explained. The continuing trend of very bad weather and the future impact on the insurance industry is explored. How very bad weather can affect the global financial market is explained. Taking a historical view of the development of the modern economy, the authors describe in the near term the impact of global warming on the global economy. The long term impact of global warming on the global economy and the human race is explored. Opportunities presented by global warming are described.

  19. Is Global Warming Accelerating?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

    2009-12-01

    A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

  20. Global Warming: Connecting the Dots

    E-print Network

    Hansen, James E.

    Global Warming: Connecting the Dots from Causes to Solutions* Jim Hansen 26 February 2007 National://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/worldwatch_nov2006.pdf) 5. Communicating dangers and opportunities in global warming, Amer-16, 2006. (http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2006/2006_Hansen.pdf) 8. Global warming: Connecting the dots from

  1. Global warming challenge

    SciTech Connect

    Hengeveld, H. )

    1994-11-01

    Global warming will necessitate significant adjustments in Canadian society and its economy. In 1979, the Canadian federal government created its Canadian Climate Program (CCP) in collaboration with other agencies, institutions, and individuals. It sought to coordinate national efforts to understand global and regional climate, and to promote better use of the emerging knowledge. Much of the CCP-coordinated research into sources and sinks of greenhouse gases interfaces with other national and international programs. Other researchers have become involved in the Northern Wetlands Study, a cooperative United States-Canada initiative to understand the role of huge northern bogs and muskegs in the carbon cycle. Because of the need to understand how the whole, linked climate system works, climate modeling emerged as a key focus of current research. 35 refs., 4 figs.

  2. Comparison of net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity affected by management practices in two dryland cropping sites

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Little is known about the effect of management practices on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) that account for all sources and sinks of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dryland cropping systems. The objective of this study was to compare the effect of a combinat...

  3. Global Warming on Triton

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; Buie, M. W.; Pasachoff, J. M.; Babcock, B. A.; McConnochie, T. H.

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  4. Global warming - A reduced threat

    SciTech Connect

    Michaels, P.J.; Stooksbury, D.E. )

    1992-10-01

    Issues associated with global warming are analyzed focusing on global and hemispheric temperature histories and trace gas concentrations; artificial warming from urban heat islands; high-latitude and diurnal temperatures; recent climate models; direct effects on vegetation of an increase in carbon dioxide; and compensatory cooling from other industrial products. Data obtained indicate that anthropogenerated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. It is noted that the sulfate emissions are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. The sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies. 61 refs.

  5. Warm up to the idea: Global warming is here

    SciTech Connect

    Lynch, C.F.

    1996-07-01

    This article summarizes recent information about global warming as well as the history of greenhouse gas emissions which have lead to more and more evidence of global warming. The primary source detailed is the second major study report on global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change. Along with comments about the environmental effects of global warming such as coastline submersion, the economic, social and political aspects of alleviating greenhouse emissions and the threat of global warming are discussed.

  6. Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aubrecht, Gordon

    2009-04-01

    Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

  7. Global Warming Is Unequivocal Kevin Trenberth

    E-print Network

    Trenberth, Kevin Edward

    Global Warming Is Unequivocal Kevin Trenberth Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Global Warming is unequivocalGlobal Warming is unequivocal The recent IPCC report is global warming! #12;Data from Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., NOAA. Data prior to 1973 from C

  8. PRINT ONLY: GLOBAL WARMING Alexeev V. A.

    E-print Network

    Rathbun, Julie A.

    PRINT ONLY: GLOBAL WARMING Alexeev V. A. Global Warming: 0.6°C or Less? [#1035] The peculiarities of global warming on the Earth during the last century are discussed. Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVIII (2007) full818.pdf #12;GLOBAL WARMING: 0.6 OR LESS? V.A.Alexeev; Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry

  9. Carbon Dioxide & Global Warming

    E-print Network

    Miami, University of

    impact rainfall (affecting both flooding and droughts), wildlife feeding patterns, and environmental, and oil, and a reduction in plant life via deforestation. As a greenhouse gas, this surplus of CO2 affects

  10. CHILLING CONSIDERATIONS GLOBAL WARMING

    E-print Network

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    (millionsofsquarekilometers) 30 20 10 MELTING OF GREENLAND ICE CAP Satellite determination of maximum extent of glacial melt Complete melt of the Greenland ice sheet would raise the level of the global ocean 23 feet. ASAN Steffen IS INCREASING Global carbon dioxide concentration over the last thousand years Polar ice cores #12;Mann et al

  11. Global Warming Hole 31 March 2015

    E-print Network

    Hansen, James E.

    Global Warming Hole 31 March 2015 James Hansen Sorry to have disappeared for two months. I-thirds of North America know that global warming is really happening. In fact, 2015 should be the year that stifles discussion of a warming hiatus. A substantial developing El Nino will add to the global warming

  12. Global warming on Capitol Hill

    SciTech Connect

    Berg, T.F.

    1991-09-01

    This article reports on hearings in both congressional houses on ozone depletion and global warming. Topics covered include the drought in California, effect on electric rates, administration policy relating to international efforts to cut greenhouse gas, freons phaseout, methane emission phaseout, and energy efficiency provisions for buildings and vehicles.

  13. Global warming at the summit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    During the recent summit meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Bill Clinton, the two leaders reaffirmed their concerns about global warming and the need to continue to take actions to try to reduce the threat.In a June 4 joint statement, they stressed the need to develop flexibility mechanisms, including international emissions trading, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They also noted that initiatives to reduce the risk of greenhouse warming, including specific mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, could potentially promote economic growth.

  14. On global warming T. C. Dorlas

    E-print Network

    Dorlas, Teunis C.

    On global warming T. C. Dorlas Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies School of Theoretical Physics- ature curve The ongoing debate about global warming prompted me to have a look at the physics myself

  15. Cosmic Rays and Global Warming

    E-print Network

    T. Sloan; A W Wolfendale

    2007-06-28

    It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with `the cosmic ray intensity' are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implications would be very great. We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it. So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it. Such correlations as appear are more likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance, which, of course, correlate with cosmic rays. We estimate that less than 15% of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause.

  16. Cosmic Rays and Global Warming

    SciTech Connect

    Sloan, T.; Wolfendale, A. W.

    2008-01-24

    Some workers have claimed that the observed temporal correlations of (low level) terrestrial cloud cover with the cosmic ray intensity changes, due to solar modulation, are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implications would be very great. We have examined this claim in some detail. So far, we have not found any evidence in support and so our conclusions are to doubt it. From the absence of corroborative evidence we estimate that less than 15% at the 95% confidence level, of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 43 years is due to this cause. The origin of the correlation itself is probably the cycle of solar irradiance although there is, as yet, no certainty.

  17. Global Warming Wildlife Survival Act (S.2204)

    E-print Network

    Smerdon, Jason E.

    Global Warming Wildlife Survival Act (S.2204) December 5, 2008 Team Members: Adelia Bahena in Environmental Science and Policy #12;#12;Global Warming Wildlife Survival Act (S.2204) Team Members: Carolyn Administration in Environmental Science and Policy #12;Acknowledgements The Global Warming Wildlife Survival Team

  18. An Explanation of Global Warming without Supercomputing

    E-print Network

    An Explanation of Global Warming without Supercomputing K. Miyazaki E-mail: miyazakiro that the climate sensitivity never exceeds 6 C. Consequently, the anthropogenic global warming is severely limited be calculated in simple terms. Global warming is like that." However, there will be not a few physicists who do

  19. An Explanation of Global Warming without Supercomputing

    E-print Network

    An Explanation of Global Warming without Supercomputing (revised version) K. Miyazaki E that the anthropogenic global warming is severely limited because the Earth is a water planet. 1 Introduction Now,2,3] on this anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is essentially based on the results of elaborate and enormous computer

  20. Global warming: Economic policy responses

    SciTech Connect

    Dornbusch, R.; Poterba, J.M.

    1991-01-01

    This volume contains the proceedings of a conference that brought together economic experts from Europe, the US, Latin America, and Japan to evaluate key issues in the policy debate in global warming. The following issues are at the center of debates on alternative policies to address global warming: scientific evidence on the magnitude of global warming and the extent to which it is due to human activities; availability of economic tools to control the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and how vigorously should they be applied; and political economy considerations which influence the design of an international program for controlling greenhouse gases. Many perspectives are offered on the approaches to remedying environmental problems that are currently being pursued in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Deforestation in the Amazon is discussed, as well as ways to slow it. Public finance assessments are presented of both the domestic and international policy issues raised by plans to levy a tax on the carbon emissions from various fossil fuels. Nine chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  1. The heated debate. [Global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Balling, R.C. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The Heated Debate challenges head on the popular vision' of anthropogenically-caused global warming as characterized by catastrophic sea level rise, drought-desiccated farmlands, and more frequent and intense hurricanes spinning up and out from warmer tropical seas. The message of this book is that apocalyptic devastation of natural ecosystems and human socio-economic systems will not necessarily follow from a mild warming of earth's climate. According to Balling, the specter of apocalypse is clearly the dominant view held by scientists, decisionmakers and the public specter of apocalypse is clearly the dominant view held by scientists, decisionmakers and the public at large, and, in his view, it is just as clearly incorrect based on a careful examination of the historical evidence. The Heated Debate present the other side' of global warming; a kinder, gentler greenhouse debate, the stated purpose of the book is to provide the reader with some background to the greenhouse issue, present an analysis of the certainties and uncertainties for future climate change, and examine the most probably changes in climate that may occur as the greenhouse gases increase in concentration. Ultimately the author hopes the book will more completely inform decisionmakers so that they do not commit money and resources to what may turn out to be a non-problem. Indeed, global warming may have many more benefits than costs, and, in any event, the (climate) penalty for postponing action a few years is potentially small, while our knowledge base will increase tremendously allowing society to make wiser and more informed decisions.

  2. Comment on "Global Genetic Change Tracks Global Climate Warming in

    E-print Network

    Rodríguez, Miguel Ángel

    Comment on "Global Genetic Change Tracks Global Climate Warming in Drosophila subobscura" Francisco in response to global warming. However, that conclusion is not adequately buttressed by their data, because that chromosomal inversion polymorphisms of Drosophila subobscura are evolving in response to global warming. (2

  3. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrews, Bill

    1995-01-01

    A resource for teaching about the consequences of global warming. Discusses feedback from the temperature increase, changes in the global precipitation pattern, effects on agriculture, weather extremes, effects on forests, effects on biodiversity, effects on sea levels, and actions which will help the global community cope with global warming. (LZ)

  4. Global warming and biological diversity

    SciTech Connect

    Peters, R.L.; Lovejoy, T.E.

    1992-01-01

    This book is based on presentations given at the World Wildlife Fund's Conference on Consequences of the Greenhouse Effect for Biological Diverisity in 1988, and includes updated literature citations. The general topics covered in the book include the following: overview; summary of past responses of plants to climatic change; general ecological and physiological responses; ecosystems in 4 specific regions (arctic marine, Alaskan North Slope, NW US forests, and Mediterranean); global warming's implications for conservation. Ideas and data from many ecosystems and information about the relationships between biodiversity and climatic change are brought together with a balance of factual information and defensible scientific prognostication.

  5. Soil degradation, global warming and climate impacts

    E-print Network

    Feddema, Johannes J.; Freire, Sergio Carneiro

    2001-01-01

    stream_size 21847 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Feddema_Soil_Degradation_Global_Warming.pdf.txt stream_source_info Feddema_Soil_Degradation_Global_Warming.pdf.txt Content-Encoding UTF-8 Content-Type text.... This study will demonstrate one methodology for assessing the potential large-scale impacts of soil degradation on African climates and water resources. In addition it will compare and contrast these impacts to those expected from global warming and compare...

  6. Global warming: A Northwest perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, M.J.; Counts, C.A.

    1990-02-01

    The Northwest Power Planning Council convened a symposium in Olympia, Washington, on the subject of global climate change ( the greenhouse effect'') and its potential for affecting the Pacific Northwest. The symposium was organized in response to a need by the Power Council to understand global climate change and its potential impacts on resource planning and fish and wildlife planning for the region, as well as a need to understand national policy developing toward climate change and the Pacific Northwest's role in it. 40 figs., 15 tabs.

  7. Global warming, insurance losses and financial industry

    SciTech Connect

    Low, N.C.

    1996-12-31

    Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. They have already caught the attention of the insurance industry, as they suffered massive losses in the last decade. Twenty-one out of the 25 largest catastrophes in the US, mainly in the form of hurricanes have occurred in the last decade. The insurance industry has reacted by taking the risk of global warming in decisions as to pricing and underwriting decisions. But they have yet to take a more active role in regulating the factors that contributes to global warming. How global warming can impact the financial industry and the modern economy is explored. Insurance and modern financial derivatives are key to the efficient functioning of the modern economy, without which the global economy can still function but will take a giant step backward. Any risk as global warming that causes economic surprises will hamper the efficient working of the financial market and the modern economy.

  8. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert; Yoo, Jung-Moon

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA satellites contain small systematic errors. Some of these errors are time-dependent and some are time-independent. Small errors in Ch 2 data of successive satellites arise from calibration differences. Also, successive NOAA satellites tend to have different Local Equatorial Crossing Times (LECT), which introduce differences in Ch 2 data due to the diurnal cycle. These two sources of systematic error are largely time independent. However, because of atmospheric drag, there can be a drift in the LECT of a given satellite, which introduces time-dependent systematic errors. One of these errors is due to the progressive chance in the diurnal cycle and the other is due to associated chances in instrument heating by the sun. In order to infer global temperature trend from the these MSU data, we have eliminated explicitly the time-independent systematic errors. Both of the time-dependent errors cannot be assessed from each satellite. For this reason, their cumulative effect on the global temperature trend is evaluated implicitly. Christy et al. (1998) (CSL). based on their method of analysis of the MSU Ch 2 data, infer a global temperature cooling trend (-0.046 K per decade) from 1979 to 1997, although their near nadir measurements yield near zero trend (0.003 K/decade). Utilising an independent method of analysis, we infer global temperature warmed by 0.12 +/- 0.06 C per decade from the observations of the MSU Ch 2 during the period 1980 to 1997.

  9. Infrared warming affects intrarow soil carbon dioxide efflux during early vegetative growth of spring wheat

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global warming will likely affect carbon cycles in agricultural soils. Our objective was to deploy infrared (IR) warming to characterize the effect of global warming on soil temperature (Ts), volumetric soil-water content ('s), and intrarow soil CO2 efflux (Fs) of an open-field spring wheat (Triticu...

  10. Meteorology: hurricanes and global warming.

    PubMed

    Landsea, Christopher W

    2005-12-22

    Anthropogenic climate change has the potential for slightly increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones through warming of sea surface temperatures. Emanuel has shown a striking and surprising association between sea surface temperatures and destructiveness by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and western North Pacific basins. However, I question his analysis on the following grounds: it does not properly represent the observations described; the use of his Atlantic bias-removal scheme may not be warranted; and further investigation of a substantially longer time series for tropical cyclones affecting the continental United States does not show a tendency for increasing destructiveness. These factors indicate that instead of "unprecedented" tropical cyclone activity having occurred in recent years, hurricane intensity was equal or even greater during the last active period in the mid-twentieth century. PMID:16371953

  11. Global Warming: How Much and Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lanouette, William

    1990-01-01

    Summarizes the history of the study of global warming and includes a discussion of the role of gases, like carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). Discusses modern research on the global warming, including computer modelling and the super-greenhouse effect. (YP)

  12. Exploring the Sociopolitical Dimensions of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sadler, Troy D.; Klosterman, Michelle L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present an activity to help high school students conceptualize the sociopolitical complexity of global warming through an exploration of varied perspectives on the issue. They argue that socioscientific issues such as global warming present important contexts for learning science and that the social and political dimensions of these…

  13. Turkish Students' Ideas about Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kilinc, Ahmet; Stanisstreet, Martin; Boyes, Edward

    2008-01-01

    A questionnaire was used to explore the prevalence of ideas about global warming in Year 10 (age 15-16 years) school students in Turkey. The frequencies of individual scientific ideas and misconceptions about the causes, consequences and "cures" of global warming were identified. In addition, several general findings emerged from this study.…

  14. Global Warming: Lessons from Ozone Depletion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobson, Art

    2010-01-01

    My teaching and textbook have always covered many physics-related social issues, including stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. The ozone saga is an inspiring good-news story that's instructive for solving the similar but bigger problem of global warming. Thus, as soon as students in my physics literacy course at the University of…

  15. Thursday, November 13 2014 Global warming could increase U.S.

    E-print Network

    Romps, David M.

    Thursday, November 13 2014 Ad Wonkblog Global warming could increase U.S. lightning strikes by 50, a team of researchers deliver an alarming prediction: A global warming world will see a major increase affect lightning. The upshot was that while precipitation may increase in some areas under global warming

  16. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  17. Global warming and nuclear power

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, L., LLNL

    1998-07-10

    Nuclear fission power reactors represent a potential solution to many aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth`s atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high-grade heat for large-scale electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-energizing around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates; importantly, electricity production costs from the best nuclear plants presently are closely comparable with those of the best fossil-fired plants. However, a substantial number of issues currently stand between nuclear power and widespread substitution for large stationary fossil fuel-fired systems. These include perceptual ones regarding both long-term and acute operational safety, plant decommissioning, fuel reprocessing, radwaste disposal, fissile materials diversion to military purposes and - perhaps most seriously- readily quantifiable concerns regarding long-term fuel supply and total unit electrical energy cost. We sketch a road-map for proceeding from the present situation toward a nuclear power-intensive world, addressing along the way each of the concerns which presently impede widespread nuclear substitution for fossil fuels, particularly for coal in the most populous and rapidly developing portions of the world, e.g., China and India. This `design to societal specifications` approach to large-scale nuclear fission power systems may lead to energy sources meeting essentially all stationary demands for high-temperature heat. Such advanced options offer a human population of ten billion the electricity supply levels currently enjoyed by Americans for 10,000 years. Nuclear power systems tailored to local needs-and-interests and having a common advanced technology base could reduce present-day world-wide C0{sub 2} emissions by two-fold, if universally employed. By application to small mobile demands, a second two-fold reduction might be attained. Even the first such halving of carbon intensivity of stationary-source energy production world-wide might permit continued slow power-demand growth in the highly developed countries and rapid development of the other 80% of the world, both without active governmental suppression of fossil fuel usage - while also stabilizing carbon input-rates into the Earth`s atmosphere. The second two-fold reduction might obviate most global warming concerns.

  18. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrews, Bill

    1994-01-01

    A resource for the teaching of the history and causes of climate change. Discusses evidence of climate change from the Viking era, early ice ages, the most recent ice age, natural causes of climate change, human-made causes of climate change, projections of global warming, and unequal warming. (LZ)

  19. Global Warming Effects on Us Hurricane Damage

    E-print Network

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    While many studies of the effects of global warming on hurricanes predict an increase in various metrics of Atlantic basin-wide activity, it is less clear that this signal will emerge from background noise in measures of ...

  20. Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Jiquan; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Luo, Yiqi; Wan, Shiqiang

    2014-03-01

    Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30° and 90° N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research.

  1. Can Global Warming be Stopped?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luria, M.

    2013-12-01

    Earlier this year, the CO2 levels exceeded the 400 ppm level and there is no sign that the 1-2 ppm annual increase is going to slow down. Concerns regarding the danger of global warming have been reported in numerous occasions for more than a generation, ever since CO2 levels reached the 350 ppm range in the mid 1980's. Nevertheless, all efforts to slow down the increase have showed little if any effect. Mobile sources, including surface and marine transportation and aviation, consist of 20% of the global CO2 emission. The only realistic way to reduce the mobile sources' CO2 signature is by improved fuel efficiency. However, any progress in this direction is more than compensated by continuous increased demand. Stationary sources, mostly electric power generation, are responsible for the bulk of the global CO2 emission. The measurements have shown, that the effect of an increase in renewable sources, like solar wind and geothermal, combined with conversion from coal to natural gas where possible, conservation and efficiency improvement, did not compensate the increased demand mostly in developing countries. Increased usage of nuclear energy can provide some relief in carbon emission but has the potential of even greater environmental hazard. A major decrease in carbon emission can be obtained by either significant reduction in the cost of non-carbon based energy sources or by of carbon sequestration. The most economical way to make a significant decrease in carbon emission is to apply carbon sequestration technology at large point sources that use coal. Worldwide there are about 10,000 major sources that burn >7 billion metric tons of coal which generate the equivalent of 30 trillion kwh. There is a limited experience in CO2 sequestration of such huge quantities of CO2, however, it is estimated that the cost would be US$ 0.01-0.1 per kwh. The cost of eliminating this quantity can be estimated at an average of 1.5 trillion dollars annually. The major emitters, US, China and India are expected pay the bulk of it. While the larger nations spend this kind of money on defense, it is highly unlikely that they will do so for an environmental cause. Controlling the rest of CO2 emissions such as agricultural waste and medium to small sources is either much more expensive or even technologically impossible. The discussion so far did not include other green house gases (GHG) such as methane, ozone, nitrous oxide and hydro-chloro-fluoro-carbons that are much more difficult to control. In conclusion, it will take trillions of US dollars to significantly decrease GHG emissions and the effect will only be seen tens of years in the future. It is more reasonable to invest a fraction of these resources in preparation for the inevitable effects of the forthcoming climate change. Investments in coastal line protection, better flood control in low elevation water basins and in water desalination in arid areas may are some of the actions that may give a much better return.

  2. Is global warming harmful to health?

    PubMed

    Epstein, P R

    2000-08-01

    Projections from computer models predict that global warming will expand the incidence and distribution of many serious medical disorders. Global warming, aside from indirectly causing death by drowning or starvation, promotes by various means the emergence, resurgence, and spread of infectious diseases. This article addresses the health effects of global warming and disrupted climate patterns in detail. Among the greatest health concerns are diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, and several kinds of encephalitis. Such disorders are projected to become increasingly prevalent because their insect carriers are very sensitive to meteorological conditions. In addition, floods and droughts resulting from global warming can each help trigger outbreaks by creating breeding grounds for insects whose desiccated eggs remain viable and hatch in still water. Other effects of global warming on health include the growth of opportunist populations and the increase of the incidence of waterborne diseases because of lack of clean water. In view of this, several steps are cited in order to facilitate the successful management of the dangers of global warming. PMID:10914399

  3. Global Warming* The Perfect Storm

    E-print Network

    Hansen, James E.

    opinion #12;Perfect Storm, Perfect Disaster 1. Great Inertia of Systems - Ocean: Half of Warming still "In Ocean Acidification 300-350 Initial Target CO2 = 350* ppm *assumes CH4, O3, Black Soot decrease #12 #12;Basic Conflict Fossil Fuel Special Interests vs Young People & Nature (Animals) Fossil Interests

  4. Advanced Review Drought under global warming

    E-print Network

    Dai, Aiguo

    Advanced Review Drought under global warming: a review Aiguo Dai This article reviews recent literature on drought of the last millennium, followed by an update on global aridity changes from 1950, for example, North America, West Africa, and East Asia. These droughts were likely triggered by anomalous

  5. Global Warming Politics in a Post-Environmental World 1 Global Warming Politics in a

    E-print Network

    hurricanes has just bombarded the Caribbean and Florida. In Florida, more than 30 are dead and thousands that stronger and more frequent hurricanes would be a result of global warming. It's an effect of warmer oceans that the recent spate of hurricanes was the result of global warming. That's in part due to the fact

  6. Hydrological consequences of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, Norman L.

    2009-06-01

    The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is strong evidence that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide far exceeds the natural range over the last 650,000 years, and this recent warming of the climate system is unequivocal, resulting in more frequent extreme precipitation events, earlier snowmelt runoff, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. The effects of recent warming has been well documented and climate model projections indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99 percent) of occurring with significant to severe consequences in response to a warmer lower atmosphere with an accelerating hydrologic cycle.

  7. The Global Warming Debate: A July Hottest Month on Record in U.S.--Warming and

    E-print Network

    Reed, Christopher A.

    The Global Warming Debate: A Case Study July Hottest Month on Record in U.S.--Warming and Drought was the hottest month on record in the United States, perhaps due to a combination of global warming the fact that there is more than just natural variability playing a role: Global warming from human

  8. Some coolness concerning global warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lindzen, Richard S.

    1990-01-01

    The greenhouse effect hypothesis is discussed. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere on global temperature changes are analyzed. The problems with models currently used to predict climatic changes are examined.

  9. Resource Letter GW-2: Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Schneider, Stephen H.

    2008-07-01

    This Resource Letter provides a guide to the literature on human-induced climate change, also known as global warming [Resource Letter GW-1: Global Warming, John W. Firor, Am. J. Phys. 62, 490-495 (1994)]. After an introductory overview, journal articles, books, and websites are cited for the following topics: the greenhouse effect and radiative forcing, detection and attribution of human-induced climate change, carbon cycle feedbacks, paleoclimate, climate models and modeling uncertainties, projections of future climate change and climate impacts, and mitigation and adaptation policy options.

  10. Global warming -- Science and anti-science

    SciTech Connect

    Preining, O. |

    1995-06-01

    The global warming debate has sparked many facts activities in almost all sectors of human endeavors. There are the hard facts, the measurements of the greenhouse gases, the statistics of human activities responsible for emissions, the demographic figures. There are the soft facts, the interpretations of the hard facts requiring additional assumptions. There are the media, the press, television, for whom environmental problems make good stories, these can be used to rise emotions, to make heroes and antiheroes. There are politicians, the global warming debate can be used even in electron campaigns. Global warming is a topic within and beyond science. The judgment (and hence use) of scientific facts is overwhelmingly influenced by the ``Weltbild`` (underlying beliefs how the world operates), and consequently opposing positions of well-known scientists arise. There are the attempts to invent futures of man on Earth: policies, regulations, laws on nation, international, and global levels shall facilitate a change in the basic behavior of all men. The global warming issue has many facets and cannot be successfully discussed without including, e.g., the North-South dialogue, world population, etc.

  11. Beyond global warming: Ecology and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Vitousek, P.M. )

    1994-10-01

    While ecologists involved in management or policy often are advised to learn to deal with uncertainty, some components of global environmental change are certainly occurring and are certainly human-caused. All have important ecological consequences. Well-documented global changes include: Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; alterations in the biogeochemistry of the global nitrogen cycle; and ongoing land use/land cover change. Human activity - now primarily fossil fuel combustion - has increased carbon dioxide concentrations from [approximately] 280 to 355 [mu]L/L since 1800 and is likely to have climatic consequences and direct effects on biota in all terrestrial ecosystems. The global nitrogen cycle has been altered so that more nitrogen is fixed annually by humanity than by all natural pathways combined. Altering atmospheric chemistry and aquatic ecosystems, contributes to eutrophication of the biosphere, and has substantial regional effects on biological diversity. Finally, human land use/land cover change has transformed one-third to one-half of Earth's ice-free surface, representing the most important component of global change now. Any clear dichotomy between pristine ecosystems and human-altered areas that may have existed in the past has vanished, and ecological research should account for this reality. Certain components of global environmental change are the primary causes of anticipated changes in climate, and of ongoing losses of biological diversity. They are caused by the extraordinary growth in size and resource use of the human population. On a broad scale, there is little uncertainty about any of these components of change or their causes. However, much of the public believes the causes of global change to be uncertain and contentious. By speaking out effectively,the focus of public discussion towards what can and should be done about global environmental change can be shifted. 135 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert, Jr.

    1999-01-01

    In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

  13. Can Global Warming Heat Up Environmental Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mazzatenta, Claudio

    2008-01-01

    Bronx Community College (CUNY) launched "Global Warming Campus Awareness and Action Days" in celebration of Earth Day, 2007. The purpose of this program was to raise awareness of environmental issues in the college population, especially students. To let more students have a grasp of what Environmental Education (EE) is all about, the author…

  14. Global warming and extreme storm surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinsted, Aslak

    2013-04-01

    I will show empirical evidence for how global warming has changed extreme storm surge statistics for different regions in the world. Are there any detectable changes beyond what we expect from sea level rise. What does this suggest about the future of hurricane surges such as from hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy?

  15. Global warming debates: the reading course

    E-print Network

    Huybers, Peter

    Building. Bibliography: Papers are posted on the course web page and linked from this document. Web: http course is designed to be accessible to upper level undergraduate students who have a scientific. background basics. l 1. Mountain Glaciers: Are mountain glaciers melting? Due to global warming? First, see

  16. Phenology and global warming research in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morellato, L. P. C.

    2009-04-01

    A recent review on South American phenology research has shown an increase in phenology papers over the last two decades, especially in this new 21st century. Nevertheless, there is a lack of long term data sets or monitoring systems, or of papers addressing plant phenology and global warming. The IPCC AR4 report from 2007 has offered indisputable evidence of regional to global-scale change in seasonality, but it is supported by plant and animal phenological data from North Hemisphere and temperate species. Information from tropical regions in general and South America in particular are sparse or lacking. Here I summarize the recent outcomes of our ongoing tropical phenology research in Brazil and its potential contribution to integrate fields and understand the effects of global warming within the tropics. The Phenology Laboratory (UNESP) is located at Rio Claro, São Paulo State, Southeastern Brazil. We are looking for trends and shifts on tropical vegetation phenology, and are exploring different methods for collecting and analyzing phenology data. The phenological studies are developed in collaboration with graduate and undergraduate students, post-docs and researchers from Brazil and around the world. We established three long term monitoring programs on Southeastern Brazil from 2000 onwards: trees from an urban garden, semideciduous forest trees, and savanna cerrado woody vegetation, all based on direct weekly to monthly observation of marked plants. We have collected some discontinuous data from Atlantic rain forest trees ranging from 5 to 8 years long. I collaborate with the longest tropical wet forest phenology monitoring system in Central Amazon, and with another long term monitoring system on semi deciduous forest from South Brazil. All research programs aim, in the long run, to monitor and detect shifts on tropical plant phenology related to climatic changes. Our first preliminary findings suggest that: (i) flowering and leafing are more affected by changes on dry season length and severity, shifting on time and synchrony; (ii) shifts on fruiting are more subtle and related to seed dispersal mechanisms (animal, wind or others); (iii) forest edges and gaps, and distance from urban centers may influence tree phenology, stressing the synergic effect of fragmentation (among others) to global warming on tropical phenology; (iv) ground and satellite generated phenology patterns may not agree, deserving further and detailed research; (v) in situ environmental monitoring systems help to track changes on climate and correlate to ground phenology. Some important steps forward are: (i) to build a Brazilian Phenology Network, first based on a selection of national wide distributed species; (ii) to recover historical phenology data series from our herbarium collections and other sources; (iii) to integrate phenology to remote sensing; (iv) to stimulate more phenology long term monitoring programs and the integration across disciplines, advancing our knowledge of seasonal responses within tropics to long-term climate change.

  17. Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

  18. Future Global Cryosphere: Impacts of Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gan, T. Y.; Barry, R. G.

    2014-12-01

    In recent years, the Earth is undergoing potentially rapid changes in all cryospheric components, including Arctic sea ice shrinkage, mountain glacier recession, thawing permafrost, diminishing snow cover, and accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet. This has significant implications for global climate, hydrology, water resources, and global sea level. Physical evidences of changes observed in the cryosphere are: (a) Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes in high latitudes of N. H. decreased by about two weeks over the 20th Century; (b) Significant retreat of glaciers world wide during the 20th Century; (c) Thinning of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness by about 40% in late summer in recent decades, with the minimum sea ice concentration mapped by the SSM/I sensor of NASA in 2007; (d) Snow cover decreased in area by about 10% since global observations by satellites began in the late 1960s, in various places of the Northern Hemisphere; (e) In North America, snow water equivalent decreased by about 10mm since observations by passive microwave sensors began in the late 1970s; (f) Degradations of permafrost have been detected in some parts of the polar and sub-polar regions, and (g) The total 20th Century global average sea level rise was about 0.17m, likely due to decline in glaciers, snow, ice sheets, and losses from Greenland and Antarctica ice. Next, projected changes to the Cryosphere: northern hemisphere snow cover, avalanches, land ice, permafrost, freshwater ice, and sea ice changes, are presented.

  19. Are we seeing global warming?

    SciTech Connect

    Hasselmann, K.

    1997-05-09

    Despite considerable progress, the question of whether the observed gradual increase in global mean temperature over the last century is indeed caused by human activities or is simply an expression of natural climate variation on a larger spatial and temporal scales remains a controversial issue. To answer this question three things are needed: prediction of the anthropogenic climate change signal; determination of the natural climate variability noise; and computation of the signal-to-noise ratio and test of whether the ratio exceeds some predefined statistical detection threshold. This article discusses all these issues and the uncertainties involved in getting definitive answers. 12 refs., 1 fig.

  20. Global Warming or Global Cooling in the Holocene?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Z.; Zhu, J.; Rosenthal, Y.; Zhang, X.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Timmermann, A.; Smith, R. S.; Lohmann, G.; Zheng, W.; Elison Timm, O.

    2014-12-01

    A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the middle to late Holocene. This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite to the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs). Our critical re-examination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models.

  1. Environmental colonialism Leadership and global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-02-16

    The vast majority of the world's scientific community believes there is global warming and that it is global problem requiring international cooperation. But policy makers in industrialized countries are at a crossroads:Listen to the skeptics, who demand more proof and who fear economic consequences of an anti-greenhouse campaign, or take the more difficult path of commitment to attacking the problem. Meanwhile, poverty and debt keep. The Third world locked out of any active partnership. This issue of ED highlight their results of recently tapping documents and seminar findings on the subject of global warming. This issue also contains the following: (1) ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of the February 9, 1990; and (2) ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Western Hemisphere, February 1990 edition. 6 figs., 5 tabs.

  2. Comparing the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on global warming

    E-print Network

    Eckaus, Richard S.

    1990-01-01

    Policies dealing with global warming require a measure of the effects of the emissions of greenhouse gases that create different magnitudes of instantaneous radiative forcing and have different lifetimes. The Global Warming ...

  3. Response to Skeptics of Global Warming.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kellogg, William W.

    1991-04-01

    The majority of the scientific community involved in climate research is convinced of the reality of a current and future global warming due to the greenhouse effect, a change that must be largely caused by human activities. However, a minority of scientists is still skeptical of the notion that mankind is significantly influencing the climate of the earth, and it therefore argues against taking certain measures to avert this alleged global warming. In recent years the media have given considerable coverage to the statements of these skeptics. Reasons for their statements range from a simple argument that we do not understand the earth's climate system well enough to predict the future, to more complex arguments involving negative feed-backs and changes of solar activity. They question whether the global temperature increase in this century of up to 0.6 K is primarily a result of worldwide burning of fossil fuels. The purpose of this article is to show that the statements of this skeptical school of thought need to be critically analyzed (and in some cases refuted) in the light of current understanding of the planetary system that determines our climate. There is also another school of thought that agrees about the reality of present and future global warming, and claims that this will be beneficial for most of mankind and that it should be encouraged. The policy implications of the latter view are in many respects similar to those of the group that are not convinced that a significant global warming will occur. Both schools of thought argue against taking immediate steps to slow the climate change.

  4. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

    PubMed

    Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

    2013-05-16

    Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions. PMID:23676754

  5. The Logic of Global Warming A bitter pill

    E-print Network

    Pratt, Vaughan

    The Logic of Global Warming A bitter pill Vaughan Pratt Stanford University June 23, 2011 Vaughan PrattStanford University () The Logic of Global WarmingA bitter pill June 23, 2011 1 / 1 What is climate population growth. 2. Accumulation of hazardous materials: lead, mercury, CFCs, . . . 3. Global warming

  6. Separating Signal from Noise in Global Warming Bert W. Rust

    E-print Network

    Rust, Bert W.

    Separating Signal from Noise in Global Warming Bert W. Rust Reprinted from the CD Rust, B. W. (2003) "Separating Signal from Noise in Global Warming," Computing Science and Statistics, 35, 263-277. ­ or ­ Rust, B. W. (2003) "Separating Signal from Noise in Global Warming," Computing Science and Statistics, 35

  7. Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming

    E-print Network

    Bhatt, Uma

    Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming Igor V. Polyakov,1) are similar, and do not support the predicted polar amplification of global warming. The possible moderating amplification of global warming. Intrinsic arctic variability obscures long-term changes, limiting our ability

  8. Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming

    E-print Network

    Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming Andrew P. Schurer1 , Gabriele C current warming trends of global surface air temperature of approximately 0.2K per decade, much greater some of the observed global warming [Cowtan and Way, 2014], it does not explain the recent model

  9. Impact of the global warming hiatus on Andean temperature

    E-print Network

    Vuille, Mathias

    Impact of the global warming hiatus on Andean temperature Mathias Vuille1 , Eric Franquist1 , René Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología, Quito, Ecuador Abstract The recent hiatus in global warming in global warming has spurred a debate regarding its underlying causes. While some have suggested

  10. Possible global warming futures Minh Ha-Duong

    E-print Network

    Possible global warming futures Minh Ha-Duong Minh.Ha.Duong@cmu.edu CNRS, France HDGC, Carnegie Mellon Possible global warming futures ­ p.1/36 #12;SRES: Forecasts or scenarios? +5.5 C in 2100 the controversy using imprecise probabilities, a more general information theory. . . Possible global warming

  11. Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes Chunzai Wang1

    E-print Network

    Wang, Chunzai

    Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes Chunzai Wang1 and Sang-Ki Lee2 Received 18] A secular warming of sea surface temperature occurs almost everywhere over the global ocean. Here we use observational data to show that global warming of the sea surface is associated with a secular increase

  12. Earth'sFuture An apparent hiatus in global warming?

    E-print Network

    Trenberth, Kevin Edward

    Earth'sFuture An apparent hiatus in global warming? Kevin E. Trenberth1 and John T. Fasullo1 1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA Abstract Global warming first became surface temperatures while sea-level rise is more relentless. Global warming has not stopped; it is merely

  13. Measuring evolutionary responses to global warming: cautionary lessons from Drosophila

    E-print Network

    Rodríguez, Miguel Ángel

    Measuring evolutionary responses to global warming: cautionary lessons from Drosophila FRANCISCO. Understanding evolutionary responses to global climate warming can be daunt- ingly complex. But, primarily of the magnitude of long-term responses to global warming; standardising by equivalent seasonal tem- perature

  14. Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near

    E-print Network

    Hansen, James E.

    Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near Jim Hansen 23 June 2008 National Press Club, and House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming Washington, DC #12;1988 Testimony Has Big Effects Did Not Emphasize That Global Warming Enhances Both Extremes of Water Cycle - More

  15. Global Warming Time Bomb:* Actions Needed to Avert Disaster

    E-print Network

    Hansen, James E.

    Global Warming Time Bomb:* Actions Needed to Avert Disaster James Hansen 26 October 2009 Club statements relating to policy are personal opinion Global Warming Status 1. Knowledge Gap Between - What Benefits of Solution Despite the publicity that global warming has received, there is a large gap between

  16. California Policy Should Distinguish Biofuels by Differential Global Warming Effects

    E-print Network

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    California Policy Should Distinguish Biofuels by Differential Global Warming Effects by Richard J: _______________________________________ Date #12;California Policy Should Distinguish Biofuels by Differential Global Warming Effects Richard J, 2006 #12;#12;ABSTRACT California Policy Should Distinguish Biofuels by Differential Global Warming

  17. Strategies to Address Global Warming Is Sundance Kid a Criminal?

    E-print Network

    Hansen, James E.

    Strategies to Address Global Warming & Is Sundance Kid a Criminal? Jim Hansen In my opinion, it is still feasible to solve the global warming problem before we pass tipping points that would guarantee ppm yields global warming about 2°C (3.6°F) above the preindustrial level. Such a level of atmospheric

  18. The global warming signal is the average of

    E-print Network

    Jones, Peter JS

    The global warming signal is the average of years 70-80 in the increasing CO2 run minus the average represent significant uncertainty in the global warming signal (Fig. 5). The differences at high latitudes, uncertainty in the isopycnal diffusivity causes uncertainty of up to 50% in the global warming signal

  19. Carbon Dioxide, Global Warming, and Michael Crichton's "State of Fear"

    E-print Network

    Rust, Bert W.

    Carbon Dioxide, Global Warming, and Michael Crichton's "State of Fear" Bert W. Rust Mathematical- tioned the connection between global warming and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide by pointing out of these plots to global warming have spilled over to the real world, inviting both praise [4, 17] and scorn [15

  20. GLOBAL WARMING: THE PSYCHOLOGY OF LONG TERM RISK Guest Editorial

    E-print Network

    Todorov, Alex

    GLOBAL WARMING: THE PSYCHOLOGY OF LONG TERM RISK Guest Editorial Beyond its objective basis in natural science, understanding, discussion, and res- olution of the policy issue labeled "global warming the global warming problem. In public discussion, natu- ral scientists tend to frame the issue through

  1. Does global warming cause intensified interannual hydroclimate variability?

    E-print Network

    Smerdon, Jason E.

    Does global warming cause intensified interannual hydroclimate variability? Richard Seager, Naomi' - Environment - The Independent Global warming 'will cause more forest fires, droughts and floods' By Steve more severe and more common if global warming heats the planet as seriously as some scientists predict

  2. Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.; Lobitz, B.

    1997-12-31

    The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially alter these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.

  3. Infectious diseases and global warming: Tracking disease incidence rates globally

    SciTech Connect

    Low, N.C.

    1995-09-01

    Given the increasing importance of impact of global warming on public health, there is no global database system to monitor infectious disease and disease in general, and to which global data of climate change and environmental factors, such as temperature, greenhouse gases, and human activities, e.g., coastal development, deforestation, can be calibrated, investigated and correlated. The author proposes the diseases incidence rates be adopted as the basic global measure of morbidity of infectious diseases. The importance of a correctly chosen measure of morbidity of disease is presented. The importance of choosing disease incidence rates as the measure of morbidity and the mathematical foundation of which are discussed. The author further proposes the establishment of a global database system to track the incidence rates of infectious diseases. Only such a global system can be used to calibrate and correlate other globally tracked climatic, greenhouse gases and environmental data. The infrastructure and data sources for building such a global database is discussed.

  4. Global warming and Australian public health: reasons to be concerned.

    PubMed

    Saniotis, Arthur; Bi, Peng

    2009-11-01

    Studies in global warming and climate change indicate that human populations will be deleteriously affected in the future. Studies forecast that Australia will experience increasing heat waves and droughts. Heat stress caused by frequent heat waves will have a marked effect on older Australians due to physiological and pharmacological factors. In this paper we present an overview of some of the foreseeable issues which older Australians will face from a public health perspective. PMID:20166910

  5. Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming Martin Wild,1

    E-print Network

    Fischlin, Andreas

    Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming Martin Wild,1 Atsumu Ohmura,1 and Knut February 2007. [1] Speculations on the impact of variations in surface solar radiation on global warming was responsible for the observed warming. To disentangle surface solar and greenhouse influences on global warming

  6. Scientists' views about attribution of global warming.

    PubMed

    Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

    2014-08-19

    Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents' quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)-providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution-may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents' views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change. PMID:25051508

  7. Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

    PubMed

    Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

    2015-06-01

    Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause. PMID:26185070

  8. Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown onboard sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study, we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help of the onboard warm-blackbody temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically-weighted global-mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 K/decade during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite-deduced result.

  9. Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

    2001-01-01

    Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown on-board sequential, sun-synchronous, polar orbiting NOAA operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by the satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help the onboard warm black body temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically weighted global mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid-troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 K per decade (with an uncertainty of 0.05 K per decade) during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite deuced result.

  10. Microwave sounding units and global warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gary, Bruce L.; Keihm, Stephen J.

    1991-01-01

    A recent work of Spencer and Christy (1990) on precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites is critically examined. It is tentatively concluded in the present comment that remote sensing using satellite microwave radiometers can in fact provide a means for the monitoring of troposphere-averaged air temperature. However, for this to be successful more than one decade of data will be required to overcome the apparent inherent variability of global average air temperature. It is argued that the data set reported by Spencer and Christy should be subjected to careful review before it is interpreted as evidence of the presence or absence of global warming. In a reply, Christy provides specific responses to the commenters' objections.

  11. Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability.

    PubMed

    Wood, Richard A; Vellinga, Michael; Thorpe, Robert

    2003-09-15

    The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC, including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe, including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions. (i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming, and if so by how much? (ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely? Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However, there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however, some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual, modelling and observational uncertainties, but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future. PMID:14558904

  12. Early 20th century global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singer, S. Fred

    Can the global warming during the early part of the century, from about 1880 to 1940, “be unequivocally related to humaninduced changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere” [Jones, 1998]?The IPCC [1996a] arrived at the ambiguous conclusion that “the balance of evidence suggests there is a discernible human influence on global climate,” based on “fingerprints” in the climate record—an increasing correlation (with time) between observed and calculated global temperature patterns. However, this positive trend in correlation depended entirely on the arbitrary choice of the time interval 1940-1990, during most of which temperatures were actually decreasing. A different choice of interval would have produced a zero or even a negative trend. Another piece of evidence cited in the IPCC report to support a human influence depended on showing an increasing temperature trend in the middle troposphere of the Southern Hemisphere (presumably related to the cooling effects of sulfate aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere). Again, this result is related entirely to the particular choice of time interval [Michaels and Knappenberger, 1996]; more complete datasets give a contrary result—a greater warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere.

  13. The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1992-12-01

    During the past three years we have conducted several studies using models and a combination of satellite data, in situ meteorological and oceanic data, and paleoclimate reconstructions, under the DoE program, Quantifying the Link Between Change in Radiative Balance and Atmospheric Temperature''. Our goals were to investigate effects of global cloudiness variations on global climate and their implications for cloud feedback and continue development and application of NYU transient climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by both the clouds and oceans. Our original research plan emphasized the use of cloud, surface temperature and ocean data sets interpreted by focused climate/ocean models to develop a cloud radiative forcing scenario for the past 100 years and to assess the transient climate response; to narrow key uncertainties in the system; and to identify those aspects of the climate system most likely to be affected by greenhouse warming over short, medium and long time scales.

  14. Punishments and Prizes for Explaining Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somerville, R. C.

    2006-12-01

    Some few gifted scientists, the late Carl Sagan being an iconic example, are superbly skilled at communicating science clearly and compellingly to non-scientists. Most scientists, however, have serious shortcomings as communicators. The common failings include being verbose, addicted to jargon, caveat- obsessed and focused on details. In addition, it is far easier for a scientist to scoff at the scientific illiteracy of modern society than to work at understanding the viewpoints and concerns of journalists, policymakers and the public. Obstacles await even those scientists with the desire and the talent to communicate science well. Peer pressure and career disincentives can act as powerful deterrents, discouraging especially younger scientists from spending time on non-traditional activities. Scientists often lack mentors and role models to help them develop skills in science communication. Journalists also face real difficulties in getting science stories approved by editors and other gatekeepers. Climate change science brings its own problems in communication. The science itself is unusually wide- ranging and complex. The contentious policies and politics of dealing with global warming are difficult to disentangle from the science. Misinformation and disinformation about climate change are widespread. Intimidation and censorship of scientists by some employers is a serious problem. Polls show that global warming ranks low on the public's list of important issues. Despite all the obstacles, communicating climate change science well is critically important today. It is an art that can be learned and that brings its own rewards and satisfactions. Academic institutions and research funding agencies increasingly value outreach by scientists, and they provide resources to facilitate it. Society needs scientists who can clearly and authoritatively explain the science of global warming and its implications, while remaining objective and policy-neutral. This need will only increase in coming years as climate change makes the transition from a topic of limited public interest to one of great concern to all society.

  15. Anthropogenic global warming threatens world cultural heritage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cazenave, Anny

    2014-05-01

    Numerous cultural sites of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) world cultural Heritage are located in low-lying coastal regions. Because of anthropogenic global warming and induced sea level rise, many of these sites will be partially or totally flooded in the coming centuries/millennia. This is shown in a recent study by Marzeion and Levermann (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034001). Projecting future sea level rise and associated regional variability, these authors investigate which sites will be at risk. Because UNESCO cultural sites represent the common heritage of human beings and reflect the Earth and humanity history, they need to be protected for future generations.

  16. Does coral bleaching mean global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, J.A.

    1991-02-01

    This article discusses the implications of global warming on the marine ecosystems. In recent hearings of the US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, plans were made to introduce legislation for control of greenhouse-gas emissions, conservation of biological diversity, forest conservation, world population planning, sustainable economic development , increased fuel efficiency, and increased research into Earth-system processes. Research is required to ascertain the meaning of coral bleaching, which is the mass expulsion of symbiotic algae, called zooxanthellae, which gives the coral its color. Many scientists think that the death of the algae is an early indicator for massive destruction of the marine ecosystem.

  17. Global warming update: Recent scientific findings

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-01-01

    This study, from the George C. Marshall Institute, considers recent scientific findings on the extent of human-induced global warming. The earth's temperature has risen by approximately half a degree Celsius in the last 100 years, coinciding with a substantial increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, apparently the result of human activity. Several scientific groups have concluded that manmade emissions of greenhouse gases has produced much or all of the recent rise in global temperatures. They predict a doubling of carbon dioxide by the mid-21st century resulting in a global temperature rise of 5[degrees]C and causing severe disruptions in the earth's ecosystem. The available data on climatic change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. Enormous economic stakes ride on government decisions about carbon taxes and other CO[sub 2] emission restrictions. Attention must be paid to the scientific evidence, no matter how contrary to popular opinion its implications appear to be. The discussion is divided into five parts: introduction; Are the Greenhouse Forecasts Reliable ; The Cause of Recent Climate Changes; New Results on Global Flooding; Conclusions; Policy Implications. 27 refs., 9 figs.

  18. Ecosystem Warming Affects CO2 Flux in an Agricultural Soil

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global warming seems likely based on present-day climate predictions. Our objective was to characterize and quantify the interactive effects of ecosystem warming (i.e., canopy temperature, TS), soil moisture content ('S) and microbial biomass (BM: bacteria, fungi) on the intra-row soil CO2 flux (FS)...

  19. Global warming potential impact of bioenergy systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tonini, D.; Hamelin, L.; Wenzel, H.; Astrup, T.

    2012-10-01

    Reducing dependence on fossil fuels and mitigation of GHG emissions is a main focus in the energy strategy of many Countries. In the case of Demark, for instance, the long-term target of the energy policy is to reach 100% renewable energy system. This can be achieved by drastic reduction of the energy demand, optimization of production/distribution and substitution of fossil fuels with biomasses. However, a large increase in biomass consumption will finally induce conversion of arable and currently cultivated land into fields dedicated to energy crops production determining significant environmental consequences related to land use changes. In this study the global warming potential impact associated with six alternative bioenergy systems based on willow and Miscanthus was assessed by means of life-cycle assessment. The results showed that bioenergy production may generate higher global warming impacts than the reference fossil fuel system, when the impacts from indirect land use changes are accounted for. In a life-cycle perspective, only highly-efficient co-firing with fossil fuel achieved a (modest) GHG emission reduction.

  20. Does Global Warming Influence Tornado Activity?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Trapp, Robert J.; Brooks, Harold

    2008-12-01

    Tornadoes and other severe thunderstorm phenomena frequently cause as much annual property damage in the United States as do hurricanes, and often cause more fatalities (see http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml). In 2008, there were 2176 preliminary tornado reports logged through mid-December, with 1600 ``actual counts'' (duplicate reports removed) through September, the highest total in the past half century (Figure 1). The mass media have covered these events extensively, and experts have been deluged with requests for explanations, including possible links to anthropogenic global warming. Although recent research has yielded insight into the connections between global warming and tornado and severe thunderstorm forcing, these relationships remain mostly unexplored, largely because of the challenges in observing and numerically simulating tornadoes. Indeed, a number of questions that have been answered for other climate-related phenomena remain particularly difficult for climate and severe weather scientists, including whether there are detectable trends in tornado occurrence and if so, what causes them. This article explores the challenges and opportunities in pursuing these areas of research.

  1. Environmental refugees in a globally warmed world

    SciTech Connect

    Myers, N.

    1993-12-01

    This paper examines the complex problem of environmental refugees as among the most serious of all the effects of global warming. Shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, and agricultural disruption from drought, soil erosion and desertification are factors now and in the future in creating a group of environmental refugees. Estimates are that at least 10 million such refugees exist today. A preliminary analysis is presented here as a first attempt to understand the full character and extent of the problem. Countries with large delta and coastal areas and large populations are at particular risk from sea-level rise of as little as .5 - 1 meter, compounded by storm surge and salt water intrusions. Bangladesh, Egypt, China, and India are discussed in detail along with Island states at risk. Other global warming effects such as shifts in monsoon systems and severe and persistent droughts make agriculture particularly vulnerable. Lack of soil moisture is during the growing season will probably be the primary problem. Additional and compounding environmental problems are discussed, and an overview of the economic, sociocultural and political consequences is given. 96 refs., 1 tab.

  2. Black carbon contribution to global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Chylek, P.; Johnson, B.; Kou, L.; Wong, J.

    1996-12-31

    Before the onset of industrial revolution the only important source of black carbon in the atmosphere was biomass burning. Today, black carbon production is divided between the biomass and fossil fuel burning. Black carbon is a major agent responsible for absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric aerosols. Thus black carbon makes other aerosols less efficient in their role of reflecting solar radiation and cooling the earth-atmosphere system. Black carbon also contributes to the absorption of solar radiation by clouds and snow cover. The authors present the results of black carbon concentrations measurements in the atmosphere, in cloud water, in rain and snow melt water collected during the 1992--1996 time period over the southern Nova Scotia. Their results are put into the global and historical perspective by comparing them with the compilation of past measurements at diverse locations and with their measurements of black carbon concentrations in the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores. Black carbon contribution to the global warming is estimated, and compared to the carbon dioxide warming, using the radiative forcing caused by the black carbon at the top of the atmosphere.

  3. Identifying the Molecular Origin of Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bera, Partha P.; Francisco, Joseph S.; Lee, Timothy J.

    2009-01-01

    We have investigated the physical characteristics of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to assess which properties are most important in determining the efficiency of a GHG. Chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), nitrogen fluorides, and various other known atmospheric trace molecules have been included in this study. Compounds containing the halogens F or Cl have in common very polar X-F or X-Cl bonds, particularly the X-F bonds. It is shown that as more F atoms bond to the same central atom, the bond dipoles become larger as a result of the central atom becoming more positive. This leads to a linear increase in the total or integrated XF bond dipole derivatives for the molecule, which leads to a non-linear (quadratic) increase in infrared (IR) intensity. Moreover, virtually all of the X-F bond stretches occur in the atmospheric IR window as opposed to X-H stretches, which do not occur in the atmospheric window. It is concluded that molecules possessing several F atoms will always have a large radiative forcing parameter in the calculation of their global warming potential. Some of the implications for global warming and climate change are discussed.

  4. Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar time series obtained from conventional observations of temperature.

  5. Potential effects on health of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Haines, A. . Whittington Hospital); Parry, M. . Environmental Change Unit)

    1993-12-01

    Prediction of the impacts of global climate change on health is complicated by a number of factors. These include: the difficulty in predicting regional changes in climate, the capacity for adaptation to climate change, the interactions between the effects of global climate change and a number of other key determinants of health, including population growth and poverty, and the availability of adequate preventive and curative facilities for diseases that may be effected by climate change. Nevertheless, it is of importance to consider the potential health impacts of global climate change for a number of reasons. It is also important to monitor diseases which could be effected by climate change in order to detect changes in incidence as early as possible and study possible interactions with other factors. It seems likely that the possible impacts on health of climate change will be a major determinant of the degree to which policies aimed at reducing global warming are followed, as perceptions of the effect of climate change to human health and well-being are particularly likely to influence public opinion. The potential health impacts of climate change can be divided into direct (primary) and indirect (secondary and tertiary) effects. Primary effects are those related to the effect of temperature on human well-being and disease. Secondary effects include the impacts on health of changes in food production, availability of water and of sea level rise. A tertiary level of impacts can also be hypothesized.

  6. Scientists' Views about Attribution of Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

    2015-04-01

    What do scientists think? That is an important question when engaging in science communication, in which an attempt is made to communicate the scientific understanding to a lay audience. To address this question we undertook a large and detailed survey among scientists studying various aspects of climate change , dubbed "perhaps the most thorough survey of climate scientists ever" by well-known climate scientist and science communicator Gavin Schmidt. Among more than 1800 respondents we found widespread agreement that global warming is predominantly caused by human greenhouse gases. This consensus strengthens with increased expertise, as defined by the number of self-reported articles in the peer-reviewed literature. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), agreed that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of recent global warming, i.e. having contributed more than half of the observed warming. With this survey we specified what the consensus position entails with much greater specificity than previous studies. The relevance of this consensus for science communication will be discussed. Another important result from our survey is that the main attribution statement in IPCC's fourth assessment report (AR4) may lead to an underestimate of the greenhouse gas contribution to warming, because it implicitly includes the lesser known masking effect of cooling aerosols. This shows the importance of the exact wording in high-profile reports such as those from IPCC in how the statement is perceived, even by fellow scientists. The phrasing was improved in the most recent assessment report (AR5). Respondents who characterized the human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change. This shows that contrarian opinions are amplified in the media in relation to their prevalence in the scientific community. This is related to what is sometimes referred to as "false balance" in media reporting and may partly explain the divergence between public and scientific opinion regarding climate change.

  7. Anesthesia and global warming: the real hazards of theoretic science

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Recent speculative articles in the medical literature have indicted certain inhalational anesthetics as contributing to global warming. This unfounded speculation may have deleterious patient impact PMID:22444758

  8. OIKOS 97: 5258, 2002 Artificial climate warming positively affects arbuscular

    E-print Network

    Rilli, Matthias C.

    for soil carbon storage and erosion in a warmed climate, especially if there are cumulative effects. Artificial climate warming positively affects arbuscular mycorrhizae but decreases soil aggregate water or production, hence influencing the role of these symbionts in soil aggregation. The observed small changes

  9. Halocarbon ozone depletion and global warming potentials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cox, Richard A.; Wuebbles, D.; Atkinson, R.; Connell, Peter S.; Dorn, H. P.; Derudder, A.; Derwent, Richard G.; Fehsenfeld, F. C.; Fisher, D.; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.

    1990-01-01

    Concern over the global environmental consequences of fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has created a need to determine the potential impacts of other halogenated organic compounds on stratospheric ozone and climate. The CFCs, which do not contain an H atom, are not oxidized or photolyzed in the troposphere. These compounds are transported into the stratosphere where they decompose and can lead to chlorine catalyzed ozone depletion. The hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs or HFCs), in particular those proposed as substitutes for CFCs, contain at least one hydrogen atom in the molecule, which confers on these compounds a much greater sensitivity toward oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere, resulting in much shorter atmospheric lifetimes than CFCs, and consequently lower potential for depleting ozone. The available information is reviewed which relates to the lifetime of these compounds (HCFCs and HFCs) in the troposphere, and up-to-date assessments are reported of the potential relative effects of CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, and halons on stratospheric ozone and global climate (through 'greenhouse' global warming).

  10. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  11. A global warming forum: Scientific, economic, and legal overview

    SciTech Connect

    Geyer, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    A Global Warming Forum covers in detail five general subject areas aimed at providing first, the scientific background and technical information available on global warming and second, a study and evaluation of the role of economic, legal, and political considerations in global warming. The five general topic areas discussed are the following: (1) The role of geophysical and geoengineering methods to solve problems related to global climatic change; (2) the role of oceanographic and geochemical methods to provide evidence for global climatic change; (3) the global assessment of greenhouse gas production including the need for additional information; (4) natural resource management needed to provide long-term global energy and agricultural uses; (5) legal, policy, and educational considerations required to properly evaluate global warming proposals.

  12. Changes in ocean vertical heat transport with global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zika, Jan D.; Laliberté, Frédéric; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Sijp, Willem P.; Nurser, A. J. G.

    2015-06-01

    Heat transport between the surface and deep ocean strongly influences transient climate change. Mechanisms setting this transport are investigated using coupled climate models and by projecting ocean circulation into the temperature-depth diagram. In this diagram, a "cold cell" cools the deep ocean through the downwelling of Antarctic waters and upwelling of warmer waters and is balanced by warming due to a "warm cell," coincident with the interhemispheric overturning and previously linked to wind and haline forcing. With anthropogenic warming, the cold cell collapses while the warm cell continues to warm the deep ocean. Simulations with increasingly strong warm cells, set by their mean Southern Hemisphere winds, exhibit increasing deep-ocean warming in response to the same anthropogenic forcing. It is argued that the partition between components of the circulation which cool and warm the deep ocean in the preindustrial climate is a key determinant of ocean vertical heat transport with global warming.

  13. Situational Influences upon Children's Beliefs about Global Warming and Energy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Devine-Wright, Patrick; Devine-Wright, Hannah; Fleming, Paul

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores children's beliefs about global warming and energy sources from a psychological perspective, focusing upon situational influences upon subjective beliefs, including perceived self-efficacy. The context of the research is one of growing concern at the potential impacts of global warming, yet demonstrably low levels of…

  14. Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdun, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of < or = -1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of > or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

  15. Is the basinwide warming in the North Atlantic Ocean related to atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming?

    E-print Network

    Wang, Chunzai

    to atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming? Chunzai Wang1 and Shenfu Dong1,2 Received 31 January 2010 is controversial. Some studies argued that the warming is due to global warming in association with the secular sea surface temperature. Here we show that both global warming and AMO variability make a contribution

  16. Proving anthropogenic global warming and disproving natural warming

    E-print Network

    Lovejoy, Shaun

    that the effect of doubling the concentration of atmospheric CO2 would be to increase of what it is today and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 were only about 6 the warming is straightforward: CO2 is a "Greenhouse Gas" that lets visible light

  17. Global crop yield losses from recent warming

    SciTech Connect

    Lobell, D; Field, C

    2006-06-02

    Global yields of the world-s six most widely grown crops--wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, sorghum--have increased since 1961. Year-to-year variations in growing season minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation explain 30% or more of the variations in yield. Since 1991, climate trends have significantly decreased yield trends in all crops but rice, leading to foregone production since 1981 of about 12 million tons per year of wheat or maize, representing an annual economic loss of $1.2 to $1.7 billion. At the global scale, negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields are already apparent. Annual global temperatures have increased by {approx}0.4 C since 1980, with even larger changes observed in several regions (1). While many studies have considered the impacts of future climate changes on food production (2-5), the effects of these past changes on agriculture remain unclear. It is likely that warming has improved yields in some areas, reduced them in others, and had negligible impacts in still others; the relative balance of these effects at the global scale is unknown. An understanding of this balance would help to anticipate impacts of future climate changes, as well as to more accurately assess recent (and thereby project future) technologically driven yield progress. Separating the contribution of climate from concurrent changes in other factors--such as crop cultivars, management practices, soil quality, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) levels--requires models that describe the response of yields to climate. Studies of future global impacts of climate change have typically relied on a bottom-up approach, whereby field scale, process-based models are applied to hundreds of representative sites and then averaged (e.g., ref 2). Such approaches require input data on soil and management conditions, which are often difficult to obtain. Limitations on data quality or quantity can thus limit the utility of this approach, especially at the local scale (6-8). At the global scale, however, many of the processes and impacts captured by field scale models will tend to cancel out, and therefore simpler empirical/statistical models with fewer input requirements may be as accurate (8, 9). Empirical/statistical models also allow the effects of poorly modeled processes (e.g., pest dynamics) to be captured and uncertainties to be readily quantified (10). Here we develop new, empirical/statistical models of global yield responses to climate using datasets on broad-scale yields, crop locations, and climate variability. We focus on global average yields for the six most widely grown crops in the world: wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, and sorghum. Production of these crops accounts for over 40% of global cropland area (11). 55% of non-meat calories, and over 70% of animal feed (12).

  18. A Contribution by Ice Nuclei to Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O.; Li, Xiaofan

    2009-01-01

    Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal variations between the inferred and observed warming suggests that IN may have contributed positively to global warming over the past decades, especially in middle and high latitudes.

  19. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

  20. Expansion of World Drylands Under Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, S.; Fu, Q.; Hu, Q. S.

    2012-12-01

    The world drylands including both semi-arid and arid regions comprise of one-third of the global land surfaces, which support 14% of the world's inhabitants and a significant share of the world agriculture. Because of meager annual precipitation and large potential evaporative water loss, the ecosystems over drylands are fragile and sensitive to the global change. By analyzing the observations during 1948-2008 and 20 fully coupled climate model simulations from CMIP5 for the period 1900-2100, this study evaluated the changes of the world drylands that are defined with a modified form of the Thornthwaite's moisture index. The results based on observational data showed that the world drylands are steadily expanding during the past 60 years. The areas occupied by drylands in 1994-2008 is about 2.0×10^6km^2 (or 4%) larger than the average during the 1950s. Such an expansion is also a robust feature in the simulations of the 20 global climate models, though the rate is much smaller in the models. A stronger expanding rate is projected during the first half of this century than the simulations in the last century, followed by accelerating expansion after 2050s under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5). By the end of this century, the world drylands are projected to be over 58×10^6km^2 (or 11% increase compared to the 1961-1990 climatology). The projected expansion of drylands, however, is not homogeneous over the world drylands, with major expansion of arid regions over the southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa and Australia. Major expansions of semi-arid regions are projected over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, North and South America. The global warming is the main factor causing the increase of potential evapotranspiration estimated by Penman-Monteith algorithm, which in turn dominants the expansion of drylands. The widening of Hadley cell, which has impact on both temperature and precipitation, also play an important role. This study accentuates the urgent to develop proactive planning and adaptation strategies for increasing aridity in the world drylands to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience in those regions.

  1. Leaf respiration is differentially affected by leaf vs. stand-level night-time warming

    E-print Network

    Saleska, Scott

    Leaf respiration is differentially affected by leaf vs. stand-level night-time warming K E V I N L Abstract Plant respiration is an important physiological process in the global carbon cycle serving as a major carbon flux from the biosphere to the atmosphere. Respiration is sensitive to temperature

  2. Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage.

    PubMed

    Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:25671171

  3. Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage

    PubMed Central

    Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:25671171

  4. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  5. Grazing Effects on Net Global Warming Potential in Mixed Grass Prairie

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Quantification of global warming potential (GWP) for grassland ecosystems is critically important given their vast geographical extent and inherent capacity to affect the global carbon cycle. Contributions of grassland ecosystems to net GWP, however, are largely unknown. In this study, we sought t...

  6. The Role of Emotion in Global Warming Policy Support and Opposition

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed. PMID:24219420

  7. The role of emotion in global warming policy support and opposition.

    PubMed

    Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2014-05-01

    Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed. PMID:24219420

  8. Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, D. L.

    2009-12-01

    Since both greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds strongly affect outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with no affect or less affect on solar radiation, respectively, an attempt to delay global warming to buy time for emission reduction strategies to work might naturally target cirrus clouds. Cirrus having optical depths < 3.6 cover 13% of the globe and have a net warming effect on climate, with the coldest cirrus having the strongest warming effect. Roughly 2/3 of predicted global warming is due to the feedback effect of water vapor and clouds from an initial greenhouse gas forcing, and a recent study indicates water vapor and clouds in the upper troposphere (UT) have the greatest impact on climate sensitivity (the equilibrium response of global-mean surface temperature to a CO2 doubling). Thus altering UT water vapor and cirrus may be a good strategy for climate engineering. Cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing via GCM simulations are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). This cirrus engineered net forcing is due to (1) reduced cirrus coverage and (2) reduced upper tropospheric water vapor, due to enhanced ice sedimentation. The implementation of this climate engineering could use the airline industry to disperse the seeding material. Commercial airliners typically fly at temperatures between -40 and -60 deg. C (where homogeneous freezing nucleation dominates). Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The seeding material could be released in both clear and cloudy conditions to build up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei so that non-contrail cirrus will experience these nuclei and grow larger ice crystals. Flight corridors are denser in the high- and mid-latitudes where global warming is more severe. A risk with any geoengineering experiment is that it could affect climate in unforeseen ways, causing more harm than good. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are 1-2 weeks, the climate might return back to its normal state within a few months after stopping the geoengineering. A drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It may not have many of the draw-backs that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has, such as ozone destruction, decreased solar radiation possibly altering the hydrological cycle with more frequent droughts, greater expense, the creation of a white sky and less solar energy. In addition, modeling studies indicate it would take at least 3 years for the climate system to return to “normal” upon termination of stratospheric geoengineering.

  9. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1...A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time... CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.)...

  10. 78 FR 20632 - Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-05

    ...of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming Potential Values for Certain Fluorinated...the availability of estimated global warming potentials, as well as data and...requesting comments on the estimated global warming potentials and the data and...

  11. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1...A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time... CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.)...

  12. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1...A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time... CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.)...

  13. A policy synthesis approach for slowing global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Timilsina, G.R.

    1996-12-31

    Global warming is a burning environmental issue today but confronting with subjective as well as policy conflicts. The findings of various studies indicate that developed countries that are capable of affording effective measures towards the global warming mitigation have fewer incentives for doing so because they will have a minimal damage from global warming. The developing countries, although they will have greater damage, are unlikely to divert their development budget for taking preventive actions towards global warming. The only solution in this situation is to design a policy that encourages all the nation in the world to participate in the programs for slowing global warming. Without active participation of all nations, it seems unlikely to reduce the global warming problem in an effective way. This study presents a qualitative policy recommendation extracted from a comprehensive analysis of the findings of several studies conducted so far in this field. This study has categorized the policy approaches for mitigating the global warming in three groups: Engineering approach, forestry approach and economic approach.

  14. Modeling the fate of methane hydrates under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kretschmer, Kerstin; Biastoch, Arne; Rüpke, Lars; Burwicz, Ewa

    2015-05-01

    Large amounts of methane hydrate locked up within marine sediments are vulnerable to climate change. Changes in bottom water temperatures may lead to their destabilization and the release of methane into the water column or even the atmosphere. In a multimodel approach, the possible impact of destabilizing methane hydrates onto global climate within the next century is evaluated. The focus is set on changing bottom water temperatures to infer the response of the global methane hydrate inventory to future climate change. Present and future bottom water temperatures are evaluated by the combined use of hindcast high-resolution ocean circulation simulations and climate modeling for the next century. The changing global hydrate inventory is computed using the parameterized transfer function recently proposed by Wallmann et al. (2012). We find that the present-day world's total marine methane hydrate inventory is estimated to be 1146 Gt of methane carbon. Within the next 100 years this global inventory may be reduced by ˜0.03% (releasing ˜473 Mt methane from the seafloor). Compared to the present-day annual emissions of anthropogenic methane, the amount of methane released from melting hydrates by 2100 is small and will not have a major impact on the global climate. On a regional scale, ocean bottom warming over the next 100 years will result in a relatively large decrease in the methane hydrate deposits, with the Arctic and Blake Ridge region, offshore South Carolina, being most affected.

  15. Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

    PubMed

    Keller, Charles F

    2007-01-01

    In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03), research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed, and I hope that, by treating just the most significant aspects of the research, this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular, while most of CFK03 remains current, there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem, but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved, and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1,000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that, while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations, it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter century or so. However, this conclusion is being challenged by differing interpretations of satellite observations of Total Solar Insolation (TSI). Different satellites give different estimates of TSI during the 1996-7 solar activity minimum. A recent study using the larger TSI satellite interpretation indicates a stronger role for the sun, and until there is agreement on TSI at solar minimum, we caution completely disregarding the sun as a significant factor in recent warming. Computer models continue to improve and, while they still do not do a satisfactory job of predicting regional changes, their simulations of global aspects of climate change and of individual forcings are increasingly reliable. In addition to these four areas, the past five years have seen advances in our understanding of many other aspects of climate change--from albedo changes due to land use to the dynamics of glacier movement. However, these more are of second order importance and will only be treated very briefly. The big news since CFK03 is the first of these, the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion, namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking, this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that, if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so, then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further, the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions. Thus, while uncertainties still remain, we are now seeing a coherent picture in which past climate variations, solar and other forcings, model predictions and other indicators such as glacier recession all point to a human-induced warming that needs to be considered carefully. A final topic touched

  16. Possible human health impacts of a global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Nichols, M.C.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Cheng, S.

    1995-03-01

    Some ways in which a global warming may affect human health are discussed. Research is presented which explores the hypothesis that heat stress-induced mortality may increase substantially in the event of a worldwide temperature increase. Two procedures are applied to four disparate nations: the US, Canada, China and Egypt. Results indicate that significant increases in heat-related mortality are likely to occur, particularly in developing nations. Factors which might help to mitigate these increases, such as acclimatization and air conditioning, are also examined. Another human health impact of a global warming is the likely spread of certain vector-borne diseases into areas of the world where they do not currently exist. Two of these, onchocerciasis and malaria, have been chosen for a detailed international study. The initial steps in this effort are discussed. Policy options are proposed which may prepare international organizations and public officials for difficulties which may arise. Implementation of these procedures, which include continuation of internationally sponsored research, could help to ameliorate many of the problems outlined in this paper.

  17. What Geology Has To Say About Global Warming William Menke

    E-print Network

    Menke, William

    What Geology Has To Say About Global Warming William Menke July 8. 2014 Last month I gave a public there until about 35 million years ago. Palm trees grew at high latitudes and that cold-blooded animals

  18. Environmental Impact on Applied Technology- Global Warming CFCs & VOCs 

    E-print Network

    Gilbert, J. S.

    1989-01-01

    Hardly a day goes by that the threats to our environment are not brought to our attention. Whether you are following oil spills, groundwater contamination, global warming, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or volatile organic compounds (VOCs), you must...

  19. Increased Climate Variability Is More Visible Than Global Warming: A General

    E-print Network

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    Increased Climate Variability Is More Visible Than Global Warming: A General System@utep.edu Abstract While global warming is a statistically confirmed long-term phenomenon, its most visible than the global warming itself. 1 Formulation of the Problem What is global warming. The term "global

  20. Cold stress on Russian territory during last global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Vinogradov, V.V.

    1996-12-31

    A great part of Russian territory is characterized by climate discomfort of life. In winter cold stress covers nearly all territory. The purpose of this work is to learn how the climatic discomfort of life is affected by climate change. The effect of global warming for the period 1981--1990 on geographical distribution of bioclimatic indexes by seasons (compared with average figures) is analyzed. Indexes of enthalpy, dry cooling, wind chill, wet cooling, effective temperature, physiological deficit index for monthly average figures were calculated and the data bank for the period 1981--1990 was made up. The indexes of enthalpy, wet cooling, and dry cooling according to Bodman were chosen as the most informative and independent. Maps of the climatic indexes taking into account temperature, humidity and wind speed were made up on the basis of the calculated figures.

  1. Global Warming and Neotropical Rainforests: A Historical Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaramillo, Carlos; Cárdenas, Andrés

    2013-05-01

    There is concern over the future of the tropical rainforest (TRF) in the face of global warming. Will TRFs collapse? The fossil record can inform us about that. Our compilation of 5,998 empirical estimates of temperature over the past 120 Ma indicates that tropics have warmed as much as 7°C during both the mid-Cretaceous and the Paleogene. We analyzed the paleobotanical record of South America during the Paleogene and found that the TRF did not expand toward temperate latitudes during global warm events, even though temperatures were appropriate for doing so, suggesting that solar insolation can be a constraint on the distribution of the tropical biome. Rather, a novel biome, adapted to temperate latitudes with warm winters, developed south of the tropical zone. The TRF did not collapse during past warmings; on the contrary, its diversity increased. The increase in temperature seems to be a major driver in promoting diversity.

  2. Warming will affect phytoplankton differently: evidence through a mechanistic approach

    PubMed Central

    Huertas, I. Emma; Rouco, Mónica; López-Rodas, Victoria; Costas, Eduardo

    2011-01-01

    Although the consequences of global warming in aquatic ecosystems are only beginning to be revealed, a key to forecasting the impact on aquatic communities is an understanding of individual species' vulnerability to increased temperature. Despite their microscopic size, phytoplankton support about half of the global primary production, drive essential biogeochemical cycles and represent the basis of the aquatic food web. At present, it is known that phytoplankton are important targets and, consequently, harbingers of climate change in aquatic systems. Therefore, investigating the capacity of phytoplankton to adapt to the predicted warming has become a relevant issue. However, considering the polyphyletic complexity of the phytoplankton community, different responses to increased temperature are expected. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on 12 species of phytoplankton isolated from a variety of environments by using a mechanistic approach able to assess evolutionary adaptation (the so-called ratchet technique). We found different degrees of tolerance to temperature rises and an interspecific capacity for genetic adaptation. The thermal resistance level reached by each species is discussed in relation to their respective original habitats. Our study additionally provides evidence on the most resistant phytoplankton groups in a future warming scenario. PMID:21508031

  3. Priority setting of strategies and mechanisms for limiting global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Lewis, S.J.L.

    1994-12-31

    Scientific communities have reached a consensus that increases of greenhouse gas emission will result in climatic warming and sea level rises despite existing uncertainties. Major uncertainties include the sensitivities of climate changes in terms of timing, magnitude, and scales of regional changes. Socioeconomic uncertainties encompass population and economic growth, changes in technology, future reliance on fossil fuel, and policies compiled to stabilize the global warming. Moreover, increase in world population coupled with limited resources will increase the vulnerability of ecosystems and social systems. Global warming has become an international concern since the destinies of all nations are closely interwoven by this issue and how nations deal with it. Appropriate strategies and mechanisms are need to slow down the buildup of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases. Questionnaires were sent to 150 experts in 30 countries to evaluate such strategies and mechanisms for dealing with global warming, from both the domestic and international perspectives. This paper will focus primarily on strategy selection.

  4. Slowing global warming: benefits for patients and the planet.

    PubMed

    Parker, Cindy L

    2011-08-01

    Global warming will cause significant harm to the health of persons and their communities by compromising food and water supplies; increasing risks of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases and heat stress; changing social determinants of health resulting from extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and expanding flood plains; and worsening air quality, resulting in additional morbidity and mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Vulnerable populations such as children, older persons, persons living at or below the poverty level, and minorities will be affected earliest and greatest, but everyone likely will be affected at some point. Family physicians can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, stabilize the climate, and reduce the risks of climate change while also directly improving the health of their patients. Health interventions that have a beneficial effect on climate change include encouraging patients to reduce the amount of red meat in their diets and to replace some vehicular transportation with walking or bicycling. Patients are more likely to make such lifestyle changes if their physician asks them to and leads by example. Medical offices and hospitals can become more energy efficient by recycling, purchasing wind-generated electricity, and turning off appliances, computers, and lights when not in use. Moreover, physicians can play an important role in improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by advocating for enforcement of existing air quality regulations and working with local and national policy makers to further improve air quality standards, thereby improving the health of their patients and slowing global climate change. PMID:21842773

  5. Thai Youths and Global Warming: Media Information, Awareness, and Lifestyle Activities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chokriensukchai, Kanchana; Tamang, Ritendra

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the exposure of Thai youths to media information on global warming, the relationship between exposure to global warming information and awareness of global warming, and the relationship between that awareness and lifestyle activities that contribute to global warming. A focus group of eight Thai youths provided information that…

  6. Game Theory and Global Warming Steve Schecter (North Carolina State University)

    E-print Network

    Schecter, Stephen

    Game Theory and Global Warming Steve Schecter (North Carolina State University) Mary Lou Zeeman global warming game It's time to negotiate a new treaty to stop global warming. · Player 1: Governments, Brazil, Mexico, . . . ). Situation: · An investment of $2 trillion is needed to stop global warming

  7. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2

    E-print Network

    Battisti, David

    Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2 Aaron warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR. global warming | climate feedbacks | energy accumulation Global global warm- ing, with the world ocean as the primary reservoir for energy accumulation (1). In turn

  8. Discriminating robust and non-robust atmospheric circulation responses to global warming

    E-print Network

    Discriminating robust and non-robust atmospheric circulation responses to global warming Michael response to global warming in a set of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) is investigated. The global-warmed climate is forced by a global pattern of warmed ocean surface temperatures

  9. Surface measurements of global warming causing atmospheric constituents in Korea.

    PubMed

    Oh, S N; Youn, Y H; Park, K J; Min, H K; Schnell, R C

    2001-07-01

    The expansion of the industrial economy and the increase of population in Northeast Asian countries have caused much interest in climate monitoring related to global warming. However, new techniques and better platforms for the measurement of global warming and regional databases are still old-fashioned and are not being developed sufficiently. With respect to this agenda, since 1993, at the request of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), to monitor functions of global warming, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has set up a Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Station on the western coast of Korea (Anmyun-do) and has been actively monitoring global warming over Northeast Asia. In addition, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has been measured for a similar KMA global warming program at Kosan, Cheju Island since 1990. Aerosol and radiation have also been measured at both sites as well as in Seoul. The observations have been analyzed using diagnostics of climate change in Northeast Asia and also have been internationally compared. Results indicate that greenhouse gases are in good statistic agreement with the NOAA/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) long-term trends of monthly mean concentrations and seasonal cycles. Atmospheric particulate matter has also been analyzed for particular Asian types in terms of optical depth, number concentration and size distribution. PMID:11516015

  10. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

    E-print Network

    Levermann, Anders

    The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming Anders Levermanna,b,1 , Peter U. Clarkc Board June 13, 2013 (received for review November 7, 2012) Global mean sea level has been steadily greenhouse gas emis- sions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected

  11. Global warming. (Latest citations from the NTIS database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-02-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning policies and general studies on global warming. Topics include the greenhouse effect, global climatic models, and climatic effects from combustion of fossil fuels. (Contains a minimum of 173 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  12. Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, C. D.; Palmer, M. D.; McNeall, D.; Collins, M.

    2015-04-01

    Since the end of the twentieth century, global mean surface temperature has not risen as rapidly as predicted by global climate models (GCMs). This discrepancy has become known as the global warming `hiatus’ and a variety of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the observed slowdown in warming. Focusing on internally generated variability, we use pre-industrial control simulations from an observationally constrained ensemble of GCMs and a statistical approach to evaluate the expected frequency and characteristics of variability-driven hiatus periods and their likelihood of future continuation. Given an expected forced warming trend of ~0.2 K per decade, our constrained ensemble of GCMs implies that the probability of a variability-driven 10-year hiatus is ~10%, but less than 1% for a 20-year hiatus. Although the absolute probability of a 20-year hiatus is small, the probability that an existing 15-year hiatus will continue another five years is much higher (up to 25%). Therefore, given the recognized contribution of internal climate variability to the reduced rate of global warming during the past 15 years, we should not be surprised if the current hiatus continues until the end of the decade. Following the termination of a variability-driven hiatus, we also show that there is an increased likelihood of accelerated global warming associated with release of heat from the sub-surface ocean and a reversal of the phase of decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean.

  13. Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, G. T.

    2006-12-01

    The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of institutional commitment to energy conservation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy resources, colleges and universities must focus public and professional attention on the imperative for action and the means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and countering global warming.

  14. Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Khanh Dung T; Morley, Simon A; Lai, Chien-Houng; Clark, Melody S; Tan, Koh Siang; Bates, Amanda E; Peck, Lloyd S

    2011-01-01

    Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1), the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming. PMID:22242115

  15. Upper Temperature Limits of Tropical Marine Ectotherms: Global Warming Implications

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Khanh Dung T.; Morley, Simon A.; Lai, Chien-Houng; Clark, Melody S.; Tan, Koh Siang; Bates, Amanda E.; Peck, Lloyd S.

    2011-01-01

    Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour?1, the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41–52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37–41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2–3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming. PMID:22242115

  16. Global warming and temperature-mediated increases in cercarial emergence in trematode parasites

    E-print Network

    Poulin, Robert

    Global warming can affect the world's biota and the functioning of ecosystems in many indirect ways higher latitudes. These results suggest that the small increases in air and water temperature forecast, for the sake of human health and the preservation of natural communities and ecosystems. However, because

  17. SOME CHILLING CONSIDERATIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING

    E-print Network

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    of Arizona #12;Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona #12;MELTING OF GREENLAND ICE CAP Satellite Complete melt of the Greenland ice sheet would raise the level of the global ocean 7 meters. #12 thousand years Polar ice cores #12;GREENHOUSE GAS FORCING AND CHANGE IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE

  18. Global Warming and Food Insecurity in Rural Latin America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrne, T. R.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S.

    2012-12-01

    Food insecurity is one of the most important challenges facing humanity in the 21st century - a challenge that will be further exacerbated by the changing climate. The effects of human induced climate change will be most disproportionate and severe in the developing world, where a stable food supply, decreased purchasing power, and adequate nutrition are often already a daily struggle. This study will build on work done by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN), and will assess how vulnerability to household food insecurity will be affected by global warming in various rural parts of Latin America. Temperature data from downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCM) will be used in conjunction with the results of national household surveys to generate information on each rural farming household's probability of falling below a food poverty threshold in the near future. The results of the study will allow us to distinguish between households that are likely to experience chronic food insecurity and those that are likely to experience transitory food insecurity, permitting for improved targeting of policy responses.

  19. Needed : a realistic strategy for global warming

    E-print Network

    Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Schmalensee, Richard.

    Through a brief look at the science and economics of climate, the authors show that if climate change turns out to be a serious threat, an effective response will require a substantial and very long-term global effort. ...

  20. Global warming increases flood risk in mountainous areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allamano, P.; Claps, P.; Laio, F.

    2009-12-01

    The paper aims at assessing the impact of global warming on flood risk in mountainous regions, providing measurable evidence of possible hydrologic changes due to temperature increase. It shows that large floods in mountain basins are now more frequent than in the past and that they may become even more frequent under global warming. The morpho-climatic model used for prediction is very simple and does not require calibration, which makes it suitable for application in scarcely gauged mountainous areas of the world.

  1. "Global warming and global cooling are physical phenomenon. But the battle over these real or presumed developments is a

    E-print Network

    Baez, John

    "Global warming and global cooling are physical phenomenon. But the battle over these real of catastrophic global warming the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people" What is climate change we have ever seen" What is climate change? Lord Nicholas Stern, October 2006 #12;"Global warming

  2. What Global Warming Looks Like The July 2010 global map of surface temperature anomalies (Figure 1), relative to the average

    E-print Network

    Hansen, James E.

    What Global Warming Looks Like The July 2010 global map of surface temperature anomalies (Figure 1 anomalies an example of what we can expect global warming to look like? Maps of temperature anomalies, such as Figure 1, are useful for helping people understand the role of global warming in extreme events

  3. Bog breath: Sleeper factor in global warming?

    SciTech Connect

    Benyus, J.M.

    1995-04-01

    This artical examines the emission of gases from northern peatlands as plants grow and decay and its implication in the global increase in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide and methane. Bogs do extract carbon dioxide from the air, incorporating it into green plants which become buried for a long time. However, the cold, wet conditions are ideal for microbes which emit methane. Global climate change models indicate that Minnesota, for example will be 5 degrees warmer and somewhat wetter in future years. As a result bacterial metabolism and methane generation may increase considerably. This paper discusses current research and speculation and looks at possible solutions, both man-created and natural.

  4. Global warming: Perspectives from the Late Quaternary paleomammal record

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.W. )

    1993-03-01

    Global warming at the end of the Pleistocene caused significant environmental changes that directly and indirectly effected biotic communities. The biotic response to this global warming event can provide insights into the processes that might be anticipated for future climatic changes. The megafauna extinction may have been the most dramatic alteration of mammalian communities at the end of the Pleistocene. Late Quaternary warming also altered regional diversity patterns for some small mammal guilds without extinction. Reductions in body size for both small and large mammal species were also consequences of these environmental fluctuations. Geographic shifts in the distributions of individual mammal species resulted in changes in species composition of mammalian communities. The individualistic response of biota to environmental fluctuations define some boundary conditions for modeling communities. Understanding these boundary conditions is mandatory in planning for the preservation of biodiversity in the future. Finally, it is essential to determine how global warming will alter seasonal patterns because it is apparent from the paleobiological record that not all Quaternary warming events have been the same.

  5. The Science of Global Warming Energy Balance

    E-print Network

    Blais, Brian

    qualitatively using the two concepts: Greenhouse effect: natural, beneficial consequence of an atmosphere Global the atmosphere ·Carbon dioxide (CO2) ·Water vapor (H2O) ·Methane (CH4) Greenhouse Effect 101: Effect of an Atmosphere #12;10030 70 TEarth=-270 oC TAtmosphere=-270 oC atmosphere (30% reflection) Greenhouse Effect 101

  6. Case Study #1 "The Global Warming Debate"

    E-print Network

    Reed, Christopher A.

    feedbacks between T and CO2 via the carbon cycle, including the greenhouse effect. Figure 4 Measurements to evaluate. This case study will provide you with atmospheric carbon dioxide data and global temperature data, Tenn., U.S.A. Land use-related emissions from: Houghton, R.A. 2008. Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from

  7. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  8. Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming: A Failed Experiment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ribeiro, Carla

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is a current environmental issue that has been linked to an increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. To raise awareness of the problem, various simple experiments have been proposed to demonstrate the effect of carbon dioxide on the planet's temperature. This article describes a similar experiment, which…

  9. Promotion of Scientific Literacy on Global Warming by Process Drama

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pongsophon, Pongprapan; Yutakom, Naruemon; Boujaoude, Saouma B.

    2010-01-01

    This project aims to investigate how process drama promotes scientific literacy in the context of global warming. Thirty-one lower (n = 24) and upper (n = 7) secondary students of one secondary school in Bangkok, Thailand participated in a seven-day workshop which process drama strategy was implemented. In the workshop, the students were actively…

  10. Turkish Prospective Teachers' Understanding and Misunderstanding on Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ocal, A.; Kisoglu, M.; Alas, A.; Gurbuz, H.

    2011-01-01

    The key objective of this study is to determine the Turkish elementary prospective teachers' opinions on global warming. It is also aimed to establish prospective teachers' views about the environmental education in Turkish universities. A true-false type scale was administered to 564 prospective teachers from science education, social studies…

  11. Teacher-Librarian Collaboration in Practice: Global Warming.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abilock, Debbie; Lusignan, Molly

    1998-01-01

    Describes the development of a science-based computer simulation for sixth graders on global warming that integrated research, writing, speaking, science lab, and computer skills. Highlights include teacher/librarian collaboration; problem-based learning; building knowledge; design and planning; creating Web pages; gathering, organizing, and…

  12. Global Warming: If You Can't Stand the Heat

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baird, Stephen L.

    2005-01-01

    Global warming is the progressive, gradual rise of the earth's average surface temperature, thought to be caused in part by increased concentrations of "greenhouse" gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's temperature has risen by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated…

  13. College Students' Misconceptions of Environmental Issues Related to Global Warming.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groves, Fred H.; Pugh, Ava F.

    Students are currently exposed to world environmental problems--including global warming and the greenhouse effect--in science classes at various points during their K-12 and college experience. However, the amount and depth of explosure to these issues can be quite variable. Students are also exposed to sources of misinformation leading to…

  14. Fishing for an Analogy to Global Warming William Menke

    E-print Network

    Menke, William

    Fishing for an Analogy to Global Warming William Menke That our beloved Wilson Lake once harbored, and certainly not be any of us anglers who now drive forty or fifty miles to more productive waters. It's a sad and smaller fish. Any sort of unfavorable weather conditions could reduce the supply of food, which in turn

  15. Gille-ESYS 10 1 EPA Global Warming: Position Papers

    E-print Network

    Gille, Sarah T.

    Gille-ESYS 10 1 EPA Global Warming: Position Papers Fact Sheet on the Kyoto Protocol, October 1999 remains a core U.S. goal. Emissions Targets A central feature of the Kyoto Protocol is a set of binding. International Emissions Trading The Kyoto Protocol allows nations with emissions targets to trade greenhouse gas

  16. Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: Implications of global warming

    E-print Network

    Stireman III, John O.

    Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: Implications of global warming J. O variability itself on species interactions has been little explored. Here, we compare caterpillar­parasitoid geographically dispersed databases show a decrease in levels of parasitism as climatic variability increases

  17. Global Warming on the International Agenda. Teaching Strategy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keenan-Byrne, Patricia; Malkasian, Mark

    1997-01-01

    Presents a lesson plan that teaches students the links between industrialization and global warming, and analyzes the conflicting values and priorities involved in the debate between economic development and environmental concerns. Students role play delegates from countries attending an environmental conference. Handouts provide background…

  18. Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E

    1999-01-01

    The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

  19. A Noted Physicist's Contrarian View of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstein, Evan R., Comp.

    2008-01-01

    According to Freeman Dyson, an emeritus professor of physics at the Institute for Advanced Study, the debate about global warming has become too narrow and opinions have become too entrenched. Relying on a computer model designed by the Yale University economist William D. Nordhaus, Dyson compared the effectiveness and economic feasibility of…

  20. Energy and Global Warming Impacts of CFC Alternative Technologies

    E-print Network

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    #12;Energy and Global Warming Impacts of CFC Alternative Technologies S. K. Fischer P. J. Hughes P Arthur D. Little, Inc. Sponsored by the Alternative Fluorocarbons Environmental Acceptability Study (AFEAS) and the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) December 1991 #12;This report was printed as two

  1. Global warming: is weight loss a solution?

    PubMed

    Gryka, A; Broom, J; Rolland, C

    2012-03-01

    The current climate change has been most likely caused by the increased greenhouse gas emissions. We have looked at the major greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO(2)), and estimated the reduction in the CO(2) emissions that would occur with the theoretical global weight loss. The calculations were based on our previous weight loss study, investigating the effects of a low-carbohydrate diet on body weight, body composition and resting metabolic rate of obese volunteers with type 2 diabetes. At 6 months, we observed decreases in weight, fat mass, fat free mass and CO(2) production. We estimated that a 10 kg weight loss of all obese and overweight people would result in a decrease of 49.560 Mt of CO(2) per year, which would equal to 0.2% of the CO(2) emitted globally in 2007. This reduction could help meet the CO(2) emission reduction targets and unquestionably would be of a great benefit to the global health. PMID:21792168

  2. Biotic prognostications: Global warming and biological diversity

    SciTech Connect

    Peters, R.L.; Lovejoy, T.E.

    1992-12-31

    This book focuses on the impacts of the greenhouse effect on biological diversity and on natural ecosystems. Included are chapters which include the following topics: government attitudes to climate change problems; general conclusions and deficiencies of general circulation models; impacts of past climate changes on global biota; effects of climate on vegetation, soils, wildlife diversity, animal physiology, ecology, behavior, migration, and parasites and diseases; arctic mariene ecosystems and coasta marine zones; tropical forests; arctic tundra; western North American forests, etc.; indirect linkages and snyergisms among climate change, biodiversity, geosphere, and anthropogenic stresses.

  3. Seasonal Exposure to Drought and Air Warming Affects Soil Collembola and Mites

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M.; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4°C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type. PMID:22905210

  4. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    PubMed

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3? (? is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5? warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5? warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5? or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

  5. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3? (? is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5? warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5? warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5? or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

  6. I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow: Using Procrastination Management to Combat Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malott, Richard W.

    2010-01-01

    In the provocatively titled "I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow," Dick Malott says that although we all want to do the right thing to help the environment, whether it's buying and installing compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) or replacing an energy-guzzling appliance with a more efficient one, we put it off because there's no…

  7. Increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming: A robust signal?

    E-print Network

    Li, Tim

    Increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming: A robust signal? Pang 2012; revised 18 February 2012; accepted 20 February 2012; published 16 March 2012. [1] Monsoons of people around the world. The global monsoon precipitation had an increasing trend over the past three

  8. Role of anthropogenic direct heat emissions in global warming

    E-print Network

    Wang, Fei; Zhao, Guangju; Gao, Peng; Li, Pengfei

    2015-01-01

    The anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are widely realized as the predominant drivers of global warming, but the huge and increasing anthropogenic direct heat emissions (AHE) has not gained enough attention in terms of its role in the warming of the climate system. Based on two reasonable assumptions of (1) AHE eventually transfers to the Earth energy system and (2) the net warming is only driven by the net radioactive forcing (RF) from either GHG or other causes, we analyzed the role of AHE in global warming. The mean annual total AHE of the four main sources including energy consumption, residual heat of electricity generation, biomass decomposition by land use and cover change (LUCC) and food consumption was estimated to be 4.41*10^20 J in 1970-2010, accounting for 6.23% of the net annual heat increase of the Earth reported by IPCC AR5 for the period. The mean annual radioactive forcing (RF) by AHE was up to 29.94 mW m^(-2) globally in 1981-2010, less than the annual net increase of total GH...

  9. Quantifying global warming from the retreat of glaciers

    SciTech Connect

    Oerlemans, J. )

    1994-04-08

    Records of glacier fluctuations compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service can be used to derive an independent estimate of global warming during the last 100 years. Records of different glaciers are made comparable by a two-step scaling procedure; one allowing for differences in glacier geometry, the other for differences in climate sensitivity. The retreat of glaciers during the last 100 years appears to be coherent over the globe. On the basis of modeling of the climate sensitivity of glaciers, the observed glacier retreat can be explained by a linear warming trend of 0.66 kelvin per century.

  10. Macroeconomic Impacts of the California Global Warming Solutions Act on the

    E-print Network

    California at Davis, University of

    101 Macroeconomic Impacts of the California Global Warming Solutions Act on the Southern California California Assembly Bill 32 (AB32), the California Global Warming Solutions Act, calls for the cutback

  11. Political Polarization over Global Warming: Analyzing Twitter Data on Climate Change

    E-print Network

    Sukthankar, Gita Reese

    Political Polarization over Global Warming: Analyzing Twitter Data on Climate Change Alireza/Democrats are more likely to ex- press personal concern about global warming than are self-identified conservatives

  12. Effects of Global Warming on Ancient Mammalian Communities and Their Environments

    PubMed Central

    DeSantis, Larisa R. G.; Feranec, Robert S.; MacFadden, Bruce J.

    2009-01-01

    Background Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however, long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems, including C3/C4 transitions and relative seasonality. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (?1.9 million years ago) and Pleistocene (?1.3 million years ago) in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity, increased C4 grass consumption, inter-faunal dietary partitioning, increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders, niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa, and differences in relative seasonality with warming. Conclusion/Significance Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (?28°N). Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems. PMID:19492043

  13. Global hydrological cycle response to rapid and slow global warming

    E-print Network

    Kuang, Zhiming

    , Science Greenland Temperature Obs (grey), Model (red) #12;Unexpected TRACE paleoclimate results: q (global water vapor) versus surface T Surface Temperature (C) "surface-CC scaling:Consistent with Boos 2012 results #12;Unexpected TRACE paleoclimate results: q (global water vapor

  14. Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications.

    PubMed

    Lin, I-I; Chan, Johnny C L

    2015-01-01

    Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ? 35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition 'worsened' at the same time. The 'worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the 'better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling. PMID:25990561

  15. Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications

    PubMed Central

    Lin, I-I; Chan, Johnny C.L.

    2015-01-01

    Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ?35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition ‘worsened' at the same time. The ‘worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the ‘better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling. PMID:25990561

  16. Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, I.-I.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

    2015-05-01

    Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ~35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition `worsened' at the same time. The `worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the `better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.

  17. Global warming and prairie wetlands: potential consequences for waterfowl habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poiani, Karen A.; Johnson, W. Carter

    1991-01-01

    The accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere is expected to warm the earth's climate at an unprecedented rate (Ramanathan 1988, Schneider 1989). If the climate models are correct, within 100 years the earth will not only be warmer than it has been during the past million years, but the change will have occurred more rapidly than any on record. Many profound changes in the earth's environment are expected, including rising sea level, increasing aridity in continental interiors, and melting permafrost. Ecosystems are expected to respond variously to a rapidly changing climate. Tree ranges in eastern North American are expected to shift northward, and seed dispersal may not be adequate to maintain current diversity (Cohn 1989, Johnson and Webb 1989). In coastal wetlands, rising sea level from melting icecaps and thermal expansion could flood salt-grass marshes and generally reduce the size and productivity of the intertidal zone (Peters and Darling 1985). As yet, little attention has been given to the possible effects of climatic warming on inland prairie wetland ecosystems. These wetlands, located in the glaciated portion of the North American Great Plains (Figure 1), constitute the single most important breeding area for waterfowl on this continent (Hubbard 1988). This region annually produces 50-80% of the continent's total duck production (Batt et al. 1989). These marshes also support a variety of other wildlife, including many species of nongame birds, muskrat, and mink (Kantrud et al. 1989a). Prairie wetlands are relatively shallow, water-holding depressions that vary in size, water permanence, and water chemistry. Permanence types include temporary ponds (typically holding water for a few weeks in the springs), seasonal ponds (holding water from spring until early summer), semipermanent ponds (holding water throughout the growing season during most years), and large permanent lakes (Stewart and Kantrud 1971). Refilling usually occurs in spring from precipitation and runoff from melting snow on frozen or saturated soils (Figure 2). Annual water levels fluctuate widely due to climate variability in the Great Plains (Borchert 1950, Kantrud et al. 1989b). Climate affects the quality of habitat for breeding waterfowl by controlling regional water conditions--water depth, areal extent, and length of wet/dry cycles (Cowardin et al. 1988)--and vegetation patterns such as the cover ration (the ratio of emergent plant cover to open water). With increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate models project warmer and, in some cases, drier conditions for the northern Great Plains (Karl et al. 1991, Manabe and Wetherald 1986, Mitchell 1983, Rind and Lebedeff 1984). In general, a warmer, drier climate could lower waterfowl production directly by increasing the frequency of dry basins and indirectly by producing less favorable cover rations (i.e., heavy emergent cover with few or no open-water areas). The possibility of diminished waterfowl production in a greenhouse climate comes at a time when waterfowl numbers have sharply declined for other reasons (Johnson and Shaffer 1987). Breeding habitat continues to be lost or altered by agriculture, grazing, burning, mowing, sedimentation, and drainage (Kantrud et al. 1989b). For example, it has been estimated that 60% of the wetland area in North Dakota has been drained (Tiner 1984). Pesticides entering wetlands from adjacent agricultural fields have been destructive to aquatic invertebrate populations and have significantly lowered duckling survival (Grue et al. 1988). In this article, we discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns, and waterflow habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model. The extent to which intensive management of the waterfowl resource will be needed in the f

  18. Winners and losers in a world with global warming: Noncooperation, altruism, and social welfare

    SciTech Connect

    Caplan, A.J.; Ellis, C.J.; Silva, E.C.D.

    1999-05-01

    In this paper, global warming is an asymmetric transboundary externality which benefits some countries or regions and harms others. Few environmental problems have captured the public`s imagination as much and attracted as much scrutiny as global warming. The general perception is that global warming is a net social bad, and that across-the-board abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is therefore desirable. Despite many interesting academic contributions, not all of the basic economics of this phenomenon have been fully worked out. The authors use a simple two-country model to analyze the effects of global warming on resource allocations, the global-warming stock, and national and global welfare.

  19. Floods, Droughts and Global Warming: Rolling the Climate Dice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, W. K.; Wu, H.; Kim, K.

    2013-12-01

    In this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to CO2 greenhouse warming. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7×2.4%K-1), less moderate precipitation (-2.5×0.6%K-1), more light precipitation (+1.8×1.3%K-1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7×2.1%K-1). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Changes in the global circulation associated with the precipitation changes include a narrowing and deepening of convective zone, a rise of the center of gravity and acceleration of the upper branch of the Hadley circulation, an expansion of the subtropics and a poleward shift of the jetstream. Our results suggest that increased risks of severe floods and droughts worldwide induced by increased CO2 emission is the manifestation of a canonical response of the global rainfall system in association with a re-adjustment of the global circulation system, in a competition for increased availability of atmospheric moisture from global warming.

  20. Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium.

    PubMed

    Rühland, K M; Paterson, A M; Keller, W; Michelutti, N; Smol, J P

    2013-12-01

    We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance. PMID:24107529

  1. 78 FR 20632 - Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-05

    ...The EPA is announcing to the public the availability of estimated global warming potentials, as well as data and analysis submitted in support of them, for eight fluorinated heat transfer fluids. We are requesting comments on the estimated global warming potentials and the data and analysis supporting them. We are also requesting comment on the cited global warming potentials for 35 other......

  2. Case Closed: The Debate about Global Warming is Over 1 Number 3 June 2006

    E-print Network

    as it is practical--that action against artificial global warming may not prove nearly as expensive or dauntingCase Closed: The Debate about Global Warming is Over 1 Number 3 June 2006 Case Closed: The Debate about Global Warming is Over Gregg Easterbrook E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y (Peter Essick

  3. Teaching Energy Balance using Round Numbers: A Quantitative Approach to the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

    E-print Network

    Blais, Brian

    and Global Warming Brian Blais Science and Technology Department Bryant College bblais@bryant.edu August 29, 2003 Abstract The idea of energy balance used to explain the greenhouse effect and global warming analysis, but is much more intuitive for students. 1 Introduction The topic of global warming is of current

  4. Mechanisms for Tropical Tropospheric Circulation Change in Response to Global Warming*

    E-print Network

    Xie, Shang-Ping

    Mechanisms for Tropical Tropospheric Circulation Change in Response to Global Warming* JIAN MA change in global warming is studied by comparing the response of an atmospheric general circulation model globally in response to SST warming. A diagnostic framework is developed based on a linear baroclinic model

  5. VIRGINIA CENTER FOR COAL & ENERGY RESEARCH WINTER 1998-99 / VOL. XVIII, NO. 1 Global Warming

    E-print Network

    VIRGINIA CENTER FOR COAL & ENERGY RESEARCH WINTER 1998-99 / VOL. XVIII, NO. 1 Global Warming Our over global warming continue, becoming more strident again as differing models predict widely varying, following the warmth of 1998, here are our two cents worth on global warming, written in the knowledge

  6. Detection-attribution of global warming at the regional scale: How to deal with precipitation variability?

    E-print Network

    Detection-attribution of global warming at the regional scale: How to deal with precipitation record over recent decades. Citation: Douville, H. (2006), Detection-attribution of global warming at recent climate scenarios, Douville et al. [2005] showed that the precipitation response to global warming

  7. DO GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE REPRESENT A SERIOUS THREAT TO OUR WELFARE

    E-print Network

    DO GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE REPRESENT A SERIOUS THREAT TO OUR WELFARE AND ENVIRONMENT? By Michael E. Mann I. Introduction The subjects of "global warming" and "climate change" have become parts of both the popular lexicon and the public discourse. Discussions of global warming often evoke passionate

  8. Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near James Hansen1

    E-print Network

    Hansen, James E.

    Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near James Hansen1 My presentation today is exactly 20 years after my 23 June 1988 testimony to Congress, which alerted the public that global warming has developed between what is understood about global warming by the relevant scientific community

  9. Estimating the Response of Extreme Precipitation over Mid-latitude1 Mountains to Global Warming2

    E-print Network

    Estimating the Response of Extreme Precipitation over Mid-latitude1 Mountains to Global Warming2@atmos.washington.edu8 Generated using v4.3.1 (5-19-2014) of the AMS LATEX template1 #12;ABSTRACT Global warming induced-wave theory as arising from global-warming in- duced changes in the upper-tropospheric static stability

  10. Indian Ocean Dipole Response to Global Warming in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble*

    E-print Network

    Xie, Shang-Ping

    Indian Ocean Dipole Response to Global Warming in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble* XIAO-TONG ZHENG,1 The response of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode to global warming is investigated based on simu- lations- mospheric feedback and zonal wind variance weaken under global warming. The negative skewness in eastern

  11. EETimes.com -Electronics help predict global warming Newsletters | Subscriber Services

    E-print Network

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    EETimes.com - Electronics help predict global warming Newsletters | Subscriber Services Feedback EE Times: Semi News Electronics help predict global warming R. Colin Johnson EE Times (09/18/2007 2:28 PM originally conceived for solid-state semiconductors, scientists are refining global warming predictions

  12. What should we do about the dangers posed by global warming? Judging by

    E-print Network

    Robock, Alan

    What should we do about the dangers posed by global warming? Judging by the collective actions rainandozonedepletioninanattempt toconfusethepublicaboutthescience of global warming and delay regula- tion of greenhouse of Engineering,itdiffersfromtheothers in its attitude towards those who deny the reality of global warming, or hu

  13. Global warming shifts Pacific tropical cyclone location MinHo Kwon,1,3

    E-print Network

    Li, Tim

    Global warming shifts Pacific tropical cyclone location Tim Li,1 MinHo Kwon,1,3 Ming Zhao,3 Jong) is used to investigate the change of tropical cyclone frequency in the North Pacific under global warming, and W. Yu (2010), Global warming shifts Pacific tropical cyclone location, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L

  14. Role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures S. Redner1,

    E-print Network

    Redner, Sidney

    Role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures S. Redner1, * and Mark R in Philadelphia, as a function of the number of years of observation. We then consider the case of global warming question arises: is global warming the cause of such heat waves or are they merely statistical fluctuations

  15. A SLIPPERY SLOPE: HOW MUCH GLOBAL WARMING CONSTITUTES "DANGEROUS ANTHROPOGENIC INTERFERENCE"?

    E-print Network

    Hansen, James E.

    A SLIPPERY SLOPE: HOW MUCH GLOBAL WARMING CONSTITUTES "DANGEROUS ANTHROPOGENIC INTERFERENCE on the global warming that can be tolerated without risking dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate. I" mainly as a metaphor for the danger posed by global warming. So I changed "Hell" to "disaster." What

  16. 16 APRIL 2004 VOL 304 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org388 Future Global Warming

    E-print Network

    Gazzaniga, Michael

    16 APRIL 2004 VOL 304 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org388 Future Global Warming Scenarios INA STUDY the short-term consequences of global warming. This scenario, which predicts a shutdown of the Atlantic, if global warming were to cause a repeat of such an abrupt change, the consequences would be akin to those

  17. Climate changes mirror global warming predictions BY THOMAS CROWLEY Guest columnist

    E-print Network

    Climate changes mirror global warming predictions BY THOMAS CROWLEY Guest columnist The Herald" and must reflect, at least in part, the climate system response to the increase in global warming. What if we wanted to prevent global warming. This is just doomsday speaking of the same type that he

  18. Journal of Mammalogy, 84(2):354368, 2003 MAMMALIAN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING ON VARIED

    E-print Network

    California at Berkeley, University of

    354 Journal of Mammalogy, 84(2):354­368, 2003 MAMMALIAN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING ON VARIED how Rocky Mountain mam- malian communities changed during past global warming events characterized not) in different ways. Nevertheless, examination of past global warming episodes suggested

  19. Reply to comment by Joseph J. Barsugli on ``Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes''

    E-print Network

    Wang, Chunzai

    Reply to comment by Joseph J. Barsugli on ``Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes on ``Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes'', Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01706, doi:10, may represent global warming, ENSO-like (including the Pacific decadal oscillation), and the Atlantic

  20. Global warming and hyperbolic discounting 207 Giannini Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA

    E-print Network

    Karp, Larry S.

    Global warming and hyperbolic discounting Larry Karp 207 Giannini Hall, University of California-lived environmental problems such as global warming has two disadvantages: the prescribed policy is sensitive illustrates the role of hyperbolic discounting in a model of global warming. D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  1. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of...A-1 Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon]...

  2. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of...A-1 Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon]...

  3. American Public Opinion on Global Warming in the American States: An In-Depth Study of Florida, Maine, and Massachusetts

    E-print Network

    Ford, Andrew

    1 American Public Opinion on Global Warming in the American States: An In-Depth Study of Florida Public Opinion on Global Warming in the American States: An In-Depth Study of Florida, Maine warming has been happening · What might have caused global warming · Whether global warming

  4. CFC Destruction of Ozone - Major Cause of Recent Global Warming!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashworth, R. A.

    2008-12-01

    There has been a lot of discussion about global warming. Some say anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions caused the earth to warm. Others say there is no abnormality at all, that it is just natural warming. As you will see from the data presented and analyzed, a greater than normal warming did occur in recent times but no measurements confirm an increase in CO2, whether anthropogenic or natural, had any effect on global temperatures. There is however, strong evidence that anthropogenic emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were the major cause of the recent abnormal warming. CFCs have created both unnatural atmospheric cooling and warming based on these facts: CFCs have destroyed ozone in the lower stratosphere/ upper troposphere causing these zones in the atmosphere to cool 1.37°C from 1966 to 1998. This time span was selected to eliminate the effect of the natural solar irradiance (cooling-warming) cycle effect on the earth's temperature. The loss of ozone allowed more UV light to pass through the stratosphere at a sufficient rate to warm the lower troposphere plus 8-3/4" of the earth by 0.48°C (1966 to 1998). Mass and energy balances show that the energy that was absorbed in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere hit the lower troposphere/earth at a sustainable level of 1.69 × 10 18 Btu more in 1998 than it did in 1966. Greater ozone depletion in the Polar Regions has caused these areas to warm some two and one-half (2 1/2) times that of the average earth temperature -1.2°C versus 0.48°C. This has caused permafrost to melt, which is releasing copious quantities of methane, estimated at 100 times that of manmade CO2 release, to the atmosphere. Methane in the atmosphere slowly converts to CO2 and water vapor and its release has contributed to higher CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. There is a temperature anomaly in Antarctica. The Signey Island landmass further north, warmed like the rest of the Polar Regions; but south at Vostok, there has been a cooling effect. Although the cooling at Vostok needs to be analyzed in more detail, because of the large ozone hole there, black body radiation from Vostok, some 11,400 feet above sea level, to outer space is most likely the cause. Especially, since this phenomenon occurred over the same period that stratospheric ozone destruction took place. Chlorofluorocarbon destruction of stratospheric ozone can be correlated nicely with both the cooling and warming temperature anomalies seen over the time span from 1966 to 1998 and compared to actual temperature measurements, the ozone signature for global warming is the closest of the five signature impacts developed by the IPCC. Further,the "greenhouse signature" is not seen at all. One can account for most, if not all, of the 0.48°C rise in earth's temperature from 1966 to 1998 with the additional UV light that hit the earth due to ozone destruction in the upper atmosphere.

  5. Global variations of zonal mean ozone during stratospheric warming events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Randel, William J.

    1993-01-01

    Eight years of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data are examined to study zonal mean variations associated with stratospheric planetary wave (warming) events. These fluctuations are found to be nearly global in extent, with relatively large variations in the tropics, and coherent signatures reaching up to 50 deg in the opposite (summer) hemisphere. These ozone variations are a manifestation of the global circulation cells associated with stratospheric warming events; the ozone responds dynamically in the lower stratosphere to transport, and photochemically in the upper stratosphere to the circulation-induced temperature changes. The observed ozone variations in the tropics are of particular interest because transport is dominated by zonal-mean vertical motions (eddy flux divergences and mean meridional transports are negligible), and hence, substantial simplifications to the governing equations occur. The response of the atmosphere to these impulsive circulation changes provides a situation for robust estimates of the ozone-temperature sensitivity in the upper stratosphere.

  6. Health effects of global warming: Problems in assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.

    1993-06-01

    Global warming is likely to result in a variety of environmental effects ranging from impacts on species diversity, changes in population size in flora and fauna, increases in sea level and possible impacts on the primary productivity of the sea. Potential impacts on human health and welfare have included possible increases in heat related mortality, changes in the distribution of disease vectors, and possible impacts on respiratory diseases including hayfever and asthma. Most of the focus thus far is on effects which are directly related to increases in temperature, e.g., heat stress or perhaps one step removed, e.g., changes in vector distribution. Some of the more severe impacts are likely to be much less direct, e.g., increases in migration due to agricultural failure following prolonged droughts. This paper discusses two possible approaches to the study of these less-direct impacts of global warming and presents information from on-going research using each of these approaches.

  7. Management of Philippine tropical forests: Implications to global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Lasco, R.D.

    1997-12-31

    The first part of the paper presents the massive changes in tropical land management in the Philippines as a result of a {open_quotes}paradigm shift{close_quotes} in forestry. The second part of the paper analyzes the impacts of the above management strategies on global warming, in general, preserved forests are neither sinks not sources of greenhouse gasses (GHG). Reforestation activities are primarily net sinks of carbon specially the use of fast growing reforestation species. Estimates are given for the carbon-sequestering ability of some commonly used species. The last part of the paper policy recommendations and possible courses of action by the government to maximize the role of forest lands in the mitigation of global warming. Private sector initiatives are also explored.

  8. GIS applications to evaluate public health effects of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Regens, J.L.; Hodges, D.G.

    1996-12-31

    Modeling projections of future climatic conditions suggest changes in temperature and precipitation patterns that might induce direct adverse effects on human health by altering the extent and severity of infectious and vector-borne diseases. The incidence of mosquito-borne diseases, for example, could increase substantially in areas where temperature and relative humidity rise. The application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) offers new methodologies to evaluate the impact of global warming on changes in the incidence of infectious and vector-borne diseases. This research illustrates the potential analytical and communication uses of GIS for monitoring historical patterns of climate and human health variables and for projecting changes in these health variables with global warming.

  9. Public understanding of the politics of global warming in the news media: the hostile media approach.

    PubMed

    Kim, Kyun Soo

    2011-09-01

    This study uses the politics of global warming in the US to investigate an affective mechanism of hostile media perception and the democratic consequences of such perception, in an effort to delineate audience and journalistic barriers to stimulating urgent concern about climate change. The study confirms that partisanship played a significant role in perceptual differences with regard to media bias in an important area of science journalism--climate change. News consumers' anger perception was tested as a mediator in seeking an affective mechanism of hostile media perception. Hostile media perception has important democratic consequences in that it is positively associated with individuals' trust in news coverage of global warming and with selective media use. PMID:22164707

  10. Global warming, sea-level rise, and coastal marsh survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cahoon, Donald R.

    1997-01-01

    Coastal wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems in the world. These wetlands at the land-ocean margin provide many direct benefits to humans, including habitat for commercially important fisheries and wildlife; storm protection; improved water quality through sediment, nutrient, and pollution removal; recreation; and aesthetic values. These valuable ecosystems will be highly vulnerable to the effects of the rapid rise in sea level predicted to occur during the next century as a result of global warming.

  11. Project Phoenix - Confronting global warming with solar power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Owen, Charles L.

    Project Phoenix is a design proposal for a combination of projects to combat global warming. In this paper, one of these is explained - a plan for solar power satellites to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. In the plan, the moon is the prime source of functional and structural materials. Large, 10-gigawatt, double-cone satellites 9.25 kilometers in diameter are constructed in lunar orbit and towed to geosynchronous orbit.

  12. Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

    2014-12-01

    Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

  13. Regional growth management policies: Toward reducing global warming at state and local levels

    SciTech Connect

    Purdie, J.

    1995-09-01

    State and local governments in the United States are accepting mandates to coordinate legislated land use and growth management planning with vigorous environmental protection and resource conservation. These mandates, implemented or planned in states with populations totaling over 100 million, will directly impact growth patterns and ultimately affect the level of atmospheric gases and particulates generated within their borders. This paper addresses the issues of growth management and land use planning at the local, state and regional levels and identifies areas impacting global warming. A review of existing systems will be presented, and recommendations will be made to improve monitoring of growth management mechanisms and organizational structures with the goal of global atmospheric improvement. The issues discussed include urban sprawl, transportation, and growth patterns as managed by policies also designed to protect environments and provide for sustainable growth. Areas for improved coordination between jurisdictions to ease global warming will also be examined.

  14. Man made global warming explained - closing the blinds

    E-print Network

    Sloan, T

    2010-01-01

    One of the big problems of the age concerns 'Global Warming', and whether it is 'man-made' or 'natural'. Most climatologists believe that it is very likely to be the former but some scientists (mostly non-climatologists) subscribe to the latter. Unsurprisingly, the population at large is often confused and and is not convinced either way. Here we try to explain the principles of man-made global warming in a simple way. Our purpose is to try to understand the story which the climatologists are telling us through their rather complicated general circulation models. Although the effects in detail are best left to the climatologists' models, we show that for the Globe as a whole the effects of man-made global warming can be demonstrated in a simple way. The simple model of only the direct heating from the absorption of infrared radiation, illustrates the main principles of the science involved. The predicted temperature increase due to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the last century descr...

  15. Sensitivity of Global Warming Potentials to the assumed background atmosphere

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Patten, K.O.

    1992-03-05

    This is the first in a series of papers in which we will examine various aspects of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) concept and the sensitivity and uncertainties associated with the GWP values derived for the 1992 updated scientific assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). One of the authors of this report (DJW) helped formulate the GWP concept for the first IPCC report in 1990. The Global Warming Potential concept was developed for that report as an attempt to fulfill the request from policymakers for a way of relating the potential effects on climate from various greenhouse gases, in much the same way as the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) concept (Wuebbles, 1981) is used in policy analyses related to concerns about the relative effects of CFCs and other compounds on stratospheric ozone destruction. We are also coauthors of the section on radiative forcing and Global Warming Potentials for the 1992 IPCC update; however, there was too little time to prepare much in the way of new research material for that report. Nonetheless, we have recognized for some time that there are a number of uncertainties and limitations associated with the definition of GWPs used in both the original and new IPCC reports. In this paper, we examine one of those uncertainties, namely, the effect of the assumed background atmospheric concentrations on the derived GWPs. Later papers will examine the sensitivity of GWPs to other uncertainties and limitations in the current concept.

  16. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  17. Global Warming: some back-of-the-envelope calculations

    E-print Network

    Fabara, C

    2005-01-01

    We do several simple calculations and measurements in an effort to gain understanding of global warming and the carbon cycle. Some conclusions are interesting: (i) There has been global warming since the end of the "little ice age" around 1700. There is no statistically significant evidence of acceleration of global warming since 1940. (ii) The increase of CO_2 in the atmosphere, beginning around 1940, accurately tracks the burning of fossil fuels. Burning all of the remaining economically viable reserves of oil, gas and coal over the next 150 years or so will approximately double the pre-industrial atmospheric concentration of CO_2. The corresponding increase in the average temperature, due to the greenhouse effect, is quite uncertain: between 1.3 and 4.8K. This increase of temperature is (partially?) offset by the increase of aerosols and deforestation. (iii) Ice core samples indicate that the pre-historic CO_2 concentration and temperature are well correlated. We conclude that changes in the temperatures o...

  18. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    PubMed

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

  19. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests

    PubMed Central

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P.

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

  20. Pacific Sea Level Rise Pattern and Global Warming Hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peyser, C.; Yin, J.; Landerer, F. W.

    2014-12-01

    Two important topics in current climate research are the global warming hiatus and the seesaw pattern of sea level rise (SLR) in the Pacific Ocean. We use ocean temperature and sea-level observations along with CMIP5 climate modelling data to investigate the relationship between the warming hiatus and sea-level variability in the Pacific Ocean. We analyse ocean heat content (OHC) trend by basin and layer for the full record (1945-2012) as well as the hiatus period (1998-2012). The result confirms the importance of the Pacific for heat uptake during the hiatus. Notably, the subsurface layer of the Pacific shows significant increase in OHC during the hiatus and a strong east-west compensation. This is mainly responsible for and reflected by the seesaw pattern of the Pacific sea level through thermosteric effect. The control simulations from 38 CMIP5 models indicate that the seesaw pattern of SLR in the Pacific is mainly a feature of decadal to multidecadal variability. Most CMIP5 models can capture this variability, especially in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation region (poleward of 20°N). The CMIP5 control runs show that during periods of negative trends of global temperatures (analogous to hiatus decades in a warming world), sea level increases in the western Pacific and decreases in the eastern Pacific. The opposite is true during periods of positive temperature trend (accelerated warming). These results suggest that a possible flip of the Pacific SLR seesaw would imply a resumption of surface warming and a SLR acceleration along the U.S. West Coast.

  1. Modification of Cirrus Clouds to Reduce Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, D. L.; Rasch, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    As far as we know, no studies have addressed the possibility of modifying cirrus clouds to reduce global warming. Here we explore this possibility and associated feasibility issues. To introduce this concept, some background information is needed. The effect of cirrus on climate can be quantified through their predicted impact on climate sensitivity, S (i.e. the equilibrium response of global- mean surface temperature to CO2 doubling) in global climate model (GCM) simulations. A recent study using an ensemble of thousands of "perturbed physics" GCM simulations found that S was most strongly influenced by the entrainment coefficient and the ice fall speed, indicating that S depends more on changes in cirrus clouds than on low-level boundary layer clouds. It may be possible to modify the ice fall speed in cirrus clouds which controls ice removal rates and affects the cirrus ice content, life cycle and coverage, as well as the upper troposphere relative humidity. The main impact of reducing the ice fall speed was an increase in longwave cloud forcing. In a different recent GCM study, we have used the mean size of the ice particle size distribution to change the representative ice fall speed, V. By decreasing V, the cirrus coverage was increased 5.5%, strongly affecting annual zonal means of cloud forcing, heating rates and temperatures in the upper troposphere. This led us to speculate that the introduction of aerosol particles into the upper troposphere (T < -40 C) that efficiently form ice crystals through heterogeneous nucleation may result in larger ice particles with higher fall speeds since the heterogeneous nuclei would outcompete the natural homogeneous freezing ice nuclei for water vapor. This would reduce longwave cloud forcing and lower surface temperatures, as described above. A third recent GCM study supports our speculation, showing that heterogeneous ice nucleation for these conditions produces larger ice crystals with higher fall velocities (relative to ice crystals formed by homogeneous nucleation). These studies and others beg the question of whether the introduction of efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei in regions of the upper troposphere normally dominated by homogeneous nucleation would reduce cirrus cloud coverage through higher ice fall speeds or would increase cirrus coverage by allowing nucleation in otherwise clear-sky regions supersaturated with respect to ice. The introduction of efficient ice nuclei might initially increase cirrus coverage in these regions, but once a new equilibrium of cirrus coverage is established, it is unclear whether cirrus coverage would be more or less than present day conditions. This question could be explored in climate simulations using microphysically advanced GCMs. Should the method appear promising, it could be applied by introducing efficient ice nuclei into the upper troposphere using commercial airliners. Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The strategy is to build-up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei in the -40 to -60 C zone so that cirrus forming by natural processes will experience these nuclei and grow larger crystals. High level winds would disperse the nucleant aerosol from the flight corridors. While there are risks of affecting the climate system in unforeseen ways, time scales in the atmosphere are relatively short, and this geoengineering experiment could be terminated at any time.

  2. Interactive effects of global warming and `global worming' on the initial establishment of native and exotic herbaceous plant species

    E-print Network

    Thomas, David D.

    1121 Interactive effects of global warming and `global worming' on the initial establishment, endogeic, epigeic, or all three together) and 4°C warming on soil water content, litter turnover and seedling establishment of four native and four exotic herbaceous plant species. Warming and worming exerted

  3. Interactive effects of global warming and `global worming' on the initial establishment of native and exotic herbaceous plant species

    E-print Network

    Minnesota, University of

    1 Interactive effects of global warming and `global worming' on the initial establishment of native, epigeic, or all three together) and 4°C warming on soil water content, litter turnover and seedling establishment of four native and four exotic herbaceous plant species. Warming and worming exerted independent

  4. Gas hydrate contribution to Late Permian global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majorowicz, J.; Grasby, S. E.; Safanda, J.; Beauchamp, B.

    2014-05-01

    Rapid gas hydrate release (the “clathrate gun” hypothesis) has been invoked as a cause for the rapid global warming and associated negative carbon isotope excursion observed during the Latest Permian Extinction (LPE). We modeled the stability of gas hydrates through a warming Middle to Late Permian world, considering three settings for methane reservoirs: 1) terrestrial hydrates, 2) hydrates on exposed continental shelves during glacial sea level drop, and 3) hydrates in deep marine settings. Model results show that terrestrial hydrates would rapidly destabilize over ?400 ky after deglaciation for moderate heatflow (40 mW/m2), and more rapidly for higher heat flow values. Exposed continental shelves would lose hydrates even more rapidly, after being flooded due to loss of ice storage on land. These two major hydrate reservoirs would thus have destabilized during the Middle to Late Permian climate warming, well prior to the LPE event. However, they may have contributed to the >2‰ negative C-isotopic shift during the late Middle Permian. Deep marine hydrates would have remained stable until LPE time. Rapid warming of deep marine waters during this time could have triggered destabilization of this reservoir, however given the configuration of one super continent, Pangea, hydrate bearing continental slopes would have been less extensive than modern day. This suggests that any potential gas hydrate release would have had only a minor contributing impact to the runaway greenhouse during the Latest Permian extinction.

  5. Changes in Soil Water Storage under Global Warming in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, W. Y.; Lan, C. W.; Lo, M. H.; Reager, J. T., II; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in global hydrological cycle play an important role in the Earth's climate system. In this study, we use simulations from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) model archives to estimate changes in seasonal cycle of terrestrial soil water under global warming (with the RCP8.5 scenario). Our preliminary results show that future global warming is leading to declines in snow fall and snow amount in most models and a lack of snow melt during spring and summer results in less recharge of soil moisture, which makes soil water less during the dry season over most of the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, decreases in the soil ice also play an important role in modifying the seasonal variations of soil water via affecting the infiltration and runoff rates, which might cause the soil dry out faster. The increase in annual cycle of the global soil water under global warming found in this study has important implications for water management and water security under climate changes due to an increase in the water distribution heterogeneity.

  6. Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Winton, M.; Sarmiento, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    Recent studies have suggested that global mean surface temperature would remain approximately constant on multi-century timescales after CO2 emissions are stopped. These studies suggest that the cooling effect of reduction in radiative forcing due to the decrease in atmospheric CO2 is roughly balanced by the warming effect of reduction in ocean heat uptake. Here we use Earth system model simulations of such a stoppage to demonstrate that in some models, surface temperature may actually increase on multi-century timescales after an initial century-long decrease. For example, global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.6°C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2°C above preindustrial. Surprisingly, the temperature increase occurs in spite of a decline in radiative forcing that exceeds the decline in ocean heat uptake—a circumstance that would otherwise be expected to lead to a decline in global temperature. The reason is that the warming effect of decreasing ocean heat uptake together with feedback effects arising in response to the geographic structure of ocean heat uptake overcompensates the cooling effect of decreasing atmospheric CO2 on multi-century timescales in these models. We show that ocean heat uptake, which occurs preferentially at subpolar latitudes, has a larger temperature impact per watt per square meter than the CO2 radiative forcing. In other words, the cooling effect of a high-latitude heat sink is larger than that of an equivalent tropical heat sink. The implications of our results for estimates of allowable carbon emissions required to remain below a specific global warming target will be discussed.

  7. Volcanic Forcing of Global Warming during the Pleistocene?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ericson, J. E.

    2002-12-01

    The volcanic forcing hypothesis is a new model of global climatic change that may have significance for the history of the Earth and palaeoclimate. The rapid injection of CO2 into the atmosphere during volcanic eruption through underlying massive carbonate appears to trigger global warming through the emission of this greenhouse gas. The record of eruptions (10-20 Kya) of 6 volcanoes overlying 900-10,000 meters of carbonate of the Cordillerian geosyncline in the American Southwest is synchronous with the Late Pleistocene marine transgression record. The record of volcanic eruptions through massive carbonates (20-71 Kya) in Italy, Indonesia and the American Southwest appears to be synchronous with the Wisconsin interstadial events. The extension of the volcanic eruption and climatic records to 71 Kya and inclusion of other volcanic regions represents additional supporting of evidence of the volcanic forcing hypothesis. As an example of these processes, the thermal dissociation of carbonate by magma forming a volcanic conduit (0.4 km high, 0.5 km radius) and subsequent release of carbon dioxide would increase the atmospheric carbon dioxide by 25%. The emitted CO2 would trigger a series of other processes, ocean-atmospheric CO2 exchange, increased photosynthesis and changes with terrestrial biome and global warming. [Recent field reconnaissance of Sunset Crater (erupted 1064-65 AD) indicates the evidence for thermal dissolution of limestone during basaltic extrusion.] Carbon dioxide emitted from volcanic-carbonate sources meets several observed conditions: a rapid increase (<20 years) in atmospheric carbon dioxide, abrupt increases of marine (isotopic) carbon, dilution of atmospheric radiocarbon activity independent of fluctuations of the geomagnetic field and cosmic ray fluxes, temporal covariation of sulfate, Ca+2, and CO2 in ice core records and random, interstadial events during glaciation. Volcanic forcing hypothesis represents a new model and synthesis of natural processes involving recycling of marine carbonate through volcanic eruption leading to global warming.

  8. DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2811-y Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate: a

    E-print Network

    Drange, Helge

    1 3 DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2811-y Clim Dyn Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate surface temperature. The likelihood of decadal-scale non-warming periods decrease with global warming in a warming world. Keywords Hiatus · CMIP5 · Global warming · Decadal variability 1 Motivation A central issue

  9. A new perspective on warming of the global oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palmer, M. D.; Good, S. A.; Haines, K.; Rayner, N. A.; Stott, P. A.

    2009-10-01

    Changes in ocean circulation associated with internal climate variability have a major influence on upper ocean temperatures, particularly in regions such as the North Atlantic, which are relatively well-observed and therefore over-represented in the observational record. As a result, global estimates of upper ocean heat content can give misleading estimates of the roles of natural and anthropogenic factors in causing oceanic warming. We present a method to quantify ocean warming that filters out the natural internal variability from both observations and climate simulations and better isolates externally forced air-sea heat flux changes. We obtain a much clearer picture of the drivers of oceanic temperature changes, being able to detect the effects of both anthropogenic and volcanic influences simultaneously in the observed record. Our results show that climate models are capable of capturing in remarkable detail the externally forced component of ocean temperature evolution over the last five decades.

  10. Global warming: it's not only size that matters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegerl, Gabriele C.

    2011-09-01

    Observed and model simulated warming is particularly large in high latitudes, and hence the Arctic is often seen as the posterchild of vulnerability to global warming. However, Mahlstein et al (2011) point out that the signal of climate change is emerging locally from that of climate variability earliest in regions of low climate variability, based on climate model data, and in agreement with observations. This is because high latitude regions are not only regions of strong feedbacks that enhance the global warming signal, but also regions of substantial climate variability, driven by strong dynamics and enhanced by feedbacks (Hall 2004). Hence the spatial pattern of both observed warming and simulated warming for the 20th century shows strong warming in high latitudes, but this warming occurs against a backdrop of strong variability. Thus, the ratio of the warming to internal variability is not necessarily highest in the regions that warm fastest—and Mahlstein et al illustrate that it is actually the low-variability regions where the signal of local warming emerges first from that of climate variability. Thus, regions with strongest warming are neither the most important to diagnose that forcing changes climate, nor are they the regions which will necessarily experience the strongest impact. The importance of the signal-to-noise ratio has been known to the detection and attribution community, but has been buried in technical 'optimal fingerprinting' literature (e.g., Hasselmann 1979, Allen and Tett 1999), where it was used for an earlier detection of climate change by emphasizing aspects of the fingerprint of global warming associated with low variability in estimates of the observed warming. What, however, was not discussed was that the local signal-to-noise ratio is of interest also for local climate change: where temperatures emerge from the range visited by internal climate variability, it is reasonable to assume that changes in climate will also cause more impacts than temperatures that have occurred frequently due to internal climate variability. Determining when exactly temperatures enter unusual ranges may be done in many different ways (and the paper shows several, and more could be imagined), but the main result of first local emergence in low latitudes remains robust. A worrying factor is that the regions where the signal is expected to emerge first, or is already emerging are largely regions in Africa, parts of South and Central America, and the Maritime Continent; regions that are vulnerable to climate change for a variety of regions (see IPCC 2007), and regions which contribute generally little to global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, strong emissions of greenhouse gases occur in regions of low warming-to-variability ratio. To get even closer to the relevance of this finding for impacts, it would be interesting to place the emergence of highly unusual summer temperatures in the context not of internal variability, but in the context of variability experienced by the climate system prior to the 20th century, as, e.g. documented in palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulated in simulations of the last millennium (see Jansen et al 2007). External forcing has moved the temperature range around more strongly for some regions and in some seasons than others. For example, while reconstructions of summer temperatures in Europe appear to show small long-term variations, winter shows deep drops in temperature in the little Ice Age and a long-term increase since then (Luterbacher et al 2004), which was at least partly caused by external forcing (Hegerl et al 2011a) and therefore 'natural variability' may be different from internal variability. A further interesting question in attempts to provide a climate-based proxy for impacts of climate change is: to what extent does the rapidity of change matter, and how does it compare to trends due to natural variability? It is reasonable to assume that fast changes impact ecosystems and society more than slow, gradual ones. Also, is it really the mean seasonal temp

  11. ENERGY AND GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS OF NOT-IN-KIND AND NEXT GENERATION

    E-print Network

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    #12;ENERGY AND GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS OF NOT-IN-KIND AND NEXT GENERATION CFC AND HCFC ALTERNATIVES ....................................... 2 GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS ....................................... 2 CO2 EMISSION RATES of the Total Equivalent Warming Study (TEWI-II). A companion report on solvents and cleaning technologies

  12. Global warming: Energy efficiency is key to reduce dangerous threat

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-09-01

    A consensus is growing among scientists, policymakers and citizens that human activity is altering the Earth's climate. Humans are loading carbon dioxide, methane and other pollutants into the atmosphere through deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels. The result, scientists say: pollutants are accelerating the greenhouse effect which is raising the average global temperature. A few degree temperature increase is projected to make major changes in agriculture and many other things. A growing number of scientists believe if these pollutants are not reduced, global warming could destroy the Earth's climatic balance on which our civilization rests, causing disruptions such as heat waves, droughts, coastal flooding and a rise in sea level. Clearly, all the facts about global warming, its exact causes and repercussions on the earth's climate, are not yet in. However, one thing is certain: We are not helpless and we can act now to reduce greenhouse gases through energy efficiency and halting deforestation. While energy efficiency, itself, is not a panacea, it is both an economic opportunity and environmental necessity for out nation, and for our earth.

  13. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    PubMed

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs. PMID:18565794

  14. The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Part 1, Progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1992-12-01

    During the past three years we have conducted several studies using models and a combination of satellite data, in situ meteorological and oceanic data, and paleoclimate reconstructions, under the DoE program, ``Quantifying the Link Between Change in Radiative Balance and Atmospheric Temperature``. Our goals were to investigate effects of global cloudiness variations on global climate and their implications for cloud feedback and continue development and application of NYU transient climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by both the clouds and oceans. Our original research plan emphasized the use of cloud, surface temperature and ocean data sets interpreted by focused climate/ocean models to develop a cloud radiative forcing scenario for the past 100 years and to assess the transient climate response; to narrow key uncertainties in the system; and to identify those aspects of the climate system most likely to be affected by greenhouse warming over short, medium and long time scales.

  15. Is global warming just a giant natural fluctuation? When estimating voter's intentions, pollsters know that statements like "40%

    E-print Network

    Lovejoy, Shaun

    Is global warming just a giant natural fluctuation? When estimating voter theory. So what about global warming? Shouldn't we apply the same warming since the mid-20th century" (IPCC, Assessment Report 5, AR5), then surely

  16. From low-flows to floods under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, D.

    2009-04-01

    The low-flows and floods regimes of the Acheloo's river at the Mesochora catchment outfall in Western-Central Greece were analyzed under global warming conditions. The global warming patterns were simulated through a set of hypothetical and monthly GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) downscaled scenarios of temperature increases, coupled with downscaled precipitation changes. The hydrology of the catchment is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff. Thus, the daily outflow of the catchment was simulated via the coupling of the snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models of the US National Weather Service River Forecast System. A low-flow day was defined as a day during which the streamflow did not reach the quarter of the long-term mean daily streamflow. A flood day was defined as a day during which the streamflow was more than two or three times the long-term mean daily streamflow In both hydrological cases (low-flows and floods) the basic components (number of days and episodes, duration, magnitude, frequency, etc) were determined. Both representations of global warming resulted in more numerous and longer low-flow episodes, as well as smaller mean values of minimum streamflows. Also, all climate cases posted larger low-flow deficits as the precipitation increased. On the other hand, both hypothetical and GISS downscaled climate cases predicted more numerous and longer flood episodes, as well as greater mean values of peak streamflows. Also, all climate cases reflected larger flood volumes as the precipitation increased. The low-flows results could possibly further jeopardize the river water quality, the reliability of the storages and dams, as well the water supply from local groundwater sources, while the combination of higher and more frequent floods could lead to greater risk of inundation and possible damage of existing structures.

  17. Northern Hemisphere Glaciation during the Globally Warm Early Late Pliocene

    PubMed Central

    De Schepper, Stijn; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Naafs, B. David A; Van Renterghem, Cédéric; Hennissen, Jan; Head, Martin J.; Louwye, Stephen; Fabian, Karl

    2013-01-01

    The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ?3.0 million years ago) is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS) M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ?3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Here we propose a conceptual model for the glaciation and deglaciation of MIS M2 based on geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect. Our records show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the continental ice sheets during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Sea level drop during this glaciation halted the inflow of Pacific water to the Atlantic via the Central American Seaway, allowing the build-up of a Caribbean Warm Pool. Once this warm pool was large enough, the Gulf Stream–North Atlantic Current system was reinvigorated, leading to significant northward heat transport that terminated the glaciation. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the North Atlantic Current was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century. PMID:24349081

  18. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    PubMed

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  19. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    PubMed Central

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  20. Global warming mitigation potential of biogas plants in India.

    PubMed

    Pathak, H; Jain, N; Bhatia, A; Mohanty, S; Gupta, Navindu

    2009-10-01

    Biogas technology, besides supplying energy and manure, provides an excellent opportunity for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and reducing global warming through substituting firewood for cooking, kerosene for lighting and cooking and chemical fertilizers. A study was undertaken to calculate (1) global warming mitigation potential (GMP) and thereby earning carbon credit of a family size biogas plant in India, (2) GMP of the existing and target biogas plants in the country and (3) atmospheric pollution reduction by a family size biogas plant. The GMP of a family size biogas plant was 9.7 t CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and with the current price of US $10 t( - 1) CO(2) equiv., carbon credit of US $97 year( - 1) could be earned from such reduction in greenhouse gas emission under the clean development mechanism (CDM). A family size biogas plant substitutes 316 L of kerosene, 5,535 kg firewood and 4,400 kg cattle dung cake as fuels which will reduce emissions of NOx, SO(2), CO and volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere by 16.4, 11.3, 987.0 and 69.7 kg year( - 1), respectively. Presently 3.83 million biogas plants are operating in the country, which can mitigate global warming by 37 Mt CO(2) equiv. year( - 1). Government of India has a target of installing 12.34 million biogas plants by 2010. This target has a GMP of 120 Mt CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and US $1,197 million as carbon credit under the CDM. However, if all the collectible cattle dung (225 Mt) produced in the country is used, 51.2 million family size biogas plants can be supported which will have a GMP of 496 Mt of CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and can earn US $4,968 million as carbon credit. The reduction in global warming should encourage policy makers to promote biogas technology to combat climate change and integration of carbon revenues will help the farmers to develop biogas as a profitable activity. PMID:18843544

  1. Global Warming and Glaciers Melting at Fjords in Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coelho, Pablo

    2015-04-01

    This paper presents a discussion on the validation or not of a likely paradigm about the melting of polar glaciers and their direct impact on increasing ocean levels. Physico-chemical properties of ocean waters, as well as anomalies in the thermal behavior of water are used as providers of this discussion using fjords of Greenland as study area. This text seeks to infer the relationship between the most recent developments in global warming, specifically dealing with the melting of glaciers located in fjords in the eastern part of Greenland, increasing the water temperature in ocean currents and changes in sea levels. We emphasize the importance of the correlation of the water physico-chemical characteristics in these changes perceived in the studied environment. Greenland is defined by convention as the widest oceanic island in the world. In its fjords formed in the last glaciation of the Quaternary period, basically made of ice mountains with entries to the sea, there has been melts that are discussed in this work. At first, global warming and the melting of glaciers with a consequent rise in sea levels are presented almost as an axiom. This paper seeks to address the conclusions arising from this type of research according the basic laws of physics and chemistry, related to the behavior of water in their states (typically solid and liquid). The ultimate goal of this work glimpsed through some inferences and validation of water behavior in the ice condition and in its liquid state, a broader view with regard to the findings applied to the relationship between global warming and ice melting processes. Will be observed some water anomalies in the variation between its liquid and solid states to attempt a better understanding of the phenomena occurring in this area of interest as well as their possible impacts. It is noteworthy the fact that the water does not behave thermally as most liquids, with very specific consequences in relation to the variation between its liquid and solid states because of the temperature variation. We infer, therefore, that the increased amount of water in the sea because of the melts, will not necessarily increase the volume or the level of the oceans. Keywords: Melting Glaciers. Levels of Ocean Waters. Global Warming.

  2. Global Warming, Climate Change and Glacier Retreat of Nepal Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, S.; Hisaki, Y.

    2007-12-01

    Global average air temperature near the earth surface rose 0.74¡¾0.18¨¬C during the twentieth century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that observed increased globally averaged temperatures since mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increment in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, which leads to warming of the surface and lower atmosphere by increasing the greenhouse effect. Climate models referred by IPCC project that global surface temperature are likely to be increase by 1.1 to 6.4¨¬C between 1990 and 2100. An increase in global temperature is expected to cause other changes including glacier retreat, sea level rise, increase intensity of extreme weather events and change in the pattern of precipitation, etc. The Nepal Himalaya revealed 3,252 glaciers and 2,323 lakes, which are 3,500 m above the sea level. They cover an area of 5,323 km2 with an estimated ice reserve of 481 km3. The average temperature in Nepal is rising by 0.5¨¬C per decade, and because of this reason, big glacial lakes in the country are at high risk of flooding from glacial lake bursts, which would have an adverse effect, such as huge loss of life and property. Nepal is facing a disturbance in mountain climate, flash floods, cloudbursts, erratic weather patterns and so on. The death of number of people due to floods and landslides is increasing annually. It is reported that more than 164 people already died because of floods and landslides during the current year, 2007 rainy season. Nepal does emit negligible greenhouse gases compare to developed and industrialized countries, however, country and people are facing the consequences of actions of other developed and industrialized countries. Study shows the¡¡disasters in current years and possible hazards in future due to the probable causes of global warming and recommends some suggestions for controlling of green house gases emission.

  3. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

    PubMed Central

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U.; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A.; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C?1 and 1.2 m °C?1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C?1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales. PMID:23858443

  4. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    PubMed

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales. PMID:23858443

  5. Recent weakening of northern East Asian summer monsoon: A possible response to global warming

    E-print Network

    Wang, Bin

    of the surface air temperature (SAT) averaged over the Lake Baikal region (45 ­65 N, 80 ­130 E) defined as SATI that the global warming is likely responsible for the local warming around the Lake Baikal, which in turn weakens

  6. Home News & Views Columns Correspondents Community Forum Arts Calendar February 19, 2008 Area Experts Debate Global Warming

    E-print Network

    Trenberth, Kevin Edward

    Experts Debate Global Warming Editor's Comment: While the issue of man-caused global warming is much more people on the street if mankind's activities are causing global warming, and at least eight will say yes-have distorted the subject of human-induced global warming out of all sensible proportion. Many have been lead

  7. Cold snaps still a threat despite global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-07-01

    Long stretches of extreme cold weather can cause serious damage to agriculture as well as to transportation, water, and energy infrastructure. Cold snaps have the potential to kill people, with deaths attributed to cold weather often outpacing those caused by extreme heat. With climate projections anticipating at least 2deg;C increases in global average temperature by the end of the century, some regional planners may be taking solace in the idea that the threat of cold weather extremes could fade as the world warms. Research by Kodra et al., however, suggests that on a global scale the intensity and duration of extreme cold weather events will persist and in some regions will possibly even increase by the end of the 21st century. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/ 2011GL047103, 2011)

  8. Elimination of global warming concerns from DCVD chamber cleans.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sebastien, Raoux; Tomi, Tanaka; Mohan, Bahn; Mukul, Kelkar; Hari, Ponnekanti; Dave, Silvetti; David, Cheung; Kevin, Fairbairn; Andy, Jonhson

    1997-10-01

    The semiconductor industry uses a large amount of PerFluoroCompounds (PFCs) and their impact on global warming has become a major environmental concern. On DCVD (Dielectric Chemical Vapor Deposition) systems, PFCs are used to periodically clean the deposits on the chamber walls. With a conventional parallel plate RF reactor, the PFC gas utilization is incomplete (<20%) and a large fraction of the PFC gas is unreacted and emitted in the atmosphere. We developed a microwave plasma source that provides >95% gas utilization and abatement during chamber cleans, using NF3 as a source gas. This technology brings the GWP (Global Warming Potential) of a chamber clean to negligible levels and also provides improvement in the chamber clean efficiency and throughput. Here we review the requirements for the manufacturability of a plasma abatement process. We use gaseous FTIR (Fourier Transform InfraRed) and QMS (Quadrupole Mass Spectroscopy) techniques to characterize the NF3 destruction process during a SiO2 deposition chamber clean. Finally, we analyze the functionality and efficiency of plasma abatement devices compared to other abatement techniques.

  9. States' roles in reducing global warming: Achieving international goals

    SciTech Connect

    Feldman, D.L.; Wilt, C.A. . Energy, Environment, and Resources Center)

    1994-12-01

    National governments hold major responsibility for reducing global warming. However, some of the most important efforts to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases must occur at sub-national levels. In federal systems composed of states, as well as unitary systems that impose national policies upon regions, smaller administrative units are involved in energy conservation and end-use efficiency programs, CFC reduction activities, and transportation planning. States and regions also provide greenhouse gas emissions and other basic environmental data needed to comply with international agreements. The authors argue that, for some issues states are better able than national governments to develop innovative, flexible greenhouse gas policies that are administratively feasible and publicly acceptable. International agreements and policy declarations and institution-building efforts acknowledge the importance of institution-building efforts acknowledge the importance of bottom-up approaches that rely on regionally-based, sustainable development activities to reduce global warming. They describe how national energy and pollution-prevention policies in the US invest states with specific responsibilities for reducing greenhouse gases or participating in adaptation strategies.

  10. Changes in ENSO-related PDO due to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwon, MinHo; Kim, Hera; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2013-04-01

    El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant atmosphere-ocean coupled mode in the equatorial Pacific region. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been described by some as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. Although there are several mechanisms to explain such multi-year persistence of upper ocean temperature anomalies, the origin to cause PDO variability remains unclear. In this study, we examine the characteristics of ENSO-related PDO under a warmer climate state using climate model results of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In particular, we focus on changes in PDO characteristics in relation to ENSO by directly comparing the RCP45 climate change projections with the historical control run. Our preliminary results indicate that a linear relationship between PDO and ENSO is significantly stronger in RCP45 experiment than in the historical experiment. Possibly, such change may be due to changes in ENSO properties or changes in tropics-midlatitude teleconnection under global warming. We investigate changes in spatial structure and influenceable factors of ENSO and ENDO-related PDO variability under the global warming climate.

  11. Changes in ENSO-related PDO due to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Kwon, M.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant atmosphere-ocean coupled mode in the equatorial Pacific region. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been described by some as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. Although there are several mechanisms to explain such multi-year persistence of upper ocean temperature anomalies, the origin to cause PDO variability remains unclear. In this study, we examine the characteristics of ENSO-related PDO under a warmer climate state using climate model results of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In particular, we focus on changes in PDO characteristics in relation to ENSO by directly comparing the RCP45 climate change projections with the historical control run. Our preliminary results indicate that a linear relationship between PDO and ENSO is significantly stronger in RCP45 experiment than in the historical experiment. Possibly, such change may be due to changes in ENSO properties or changes in tropics-midlatitude teleconnection under global warming. We investigate changes in spatial structure and influenceable factors of ENSO and ENDO-related PDO variability under the global warming climate.

  12. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global...

  13. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global...

  14. ORIGINAL PAPER Global warming may freeze the invasion of big-headed ants

    E-print Network

    Courchamp, Franck

    ORIGINAL PAPER Global warming may freeze the invasion of big-headed ants Cleo Bertelsmeier · Gloria is that these threats interact, and that a globally warming climate could favour invasive species. In this study we considered the second most serious threat to global biodiversity and rates of exotic species introductions

  15. Entropy Shows that Global Warming Should Cause Increased Variability in the Weather

    E-print Network

    John Michael Williams

    2001-02-21

    Elementary physical reasoning seems to leave it inevitable that global warming would increase the variability of the weather. The first two terms in an approximation to the global entropy are used to show that global warming has increased the free energy available to drive the weather, and that the variance of the weather should increase correspondingly.

  16. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global...

  17. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast. Part A The Greenhouse Effect.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrews, Bill

    1993-01-01

    Provides information necessary for an interdisciplinary analysis of the greenhouse effect, enhanced greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and scientific study of global warming for students grades 4-12. Several activity ideas accompany the information. (LZ)

  18. Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Childers, Katelin

    2015-04-01

    An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have significant policy implications by affecting food prices and supplies.

  19. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity influenced by irrigation, tillage, crop rotation, and nitrogen fertilization

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Little information exists about sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) affected by management practices to account for net emissions from agroecosystems. We evaluated the effects of irrigation, tillage, crop rotation, and N fertilization on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas...

  20. Snow: a reliable indicator for global warming in the future?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobi, H.-W.

    2012-03-01

    The cryosphere consists of water in the solid form at the Earth's surface and includes, among others, snow, sea ice, glaciers and ice sheets. Since the 1990s the cryosphere and its components have often been considered as indicators of global warming because rising temperatures can enhance the melting of solid water (e.g. Barry et al 1993, Goodison and Walker 1993, Armstrong and Brun 2008). Changes in the cryosphere are often easier to recognize than a global temperature rise of a couple of degrees: many locals and tourists have hands-on experience in changes in the extent of glaciers or the duration of winter snow cover on the Eurasian and North American continents. On a more scientific basis, the last IPCC report left no doubt: the amount of snow and ice on Earth is decreasing (Lemke et al 2007). Available data showed clearly decreasing trends in the sea ice and frozen ground extent of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the global glacier mass balance. However, the trend in the snow cover extent (SCE) of the NH was much more ambiguous; a result that has since been confirmed by the online available up-to-date analysis of the SCE performed by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab (climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/). The behavior of snow is not the result of a simple cause-and-effect relationship between air temperature and snow. It is instead related to a rather complex interplay between external meteorological parameters and internal processes in the snowpack. While air temperature is of course a crucial parameter for snow and its melting, precipitation and radiation are also important. Further physical properties like snow grain size and the amount of absorbing impurities in the snow determine the fraction of absorbed radiation. While all these parameters affect the energy budget of the snowpack, each of these variables can dominate depending on the season or, more generally, on environmental conditions. As a result, the reduction in SCE in spring and summer in the NH was attributed to faster melting because of higher air temperatures, while the winter months (December to February) saw an increase in the SCE due to increased precipitation (Lemke et al >2007). Cohen et al (2012) confirmed these opposing effects in the SCE and showed that on the Eurasian continent the average SCE in October has increased by approximately 3 × 106 km2 in the last two decades; a growth of almost 40%, corresponding to roughly 1.5 times the area of Greenland. For the same period, Cohen et al (2012) found a negligible trend in the average temperatures above the continents of the NH for the winter months despite a significant increase in the annual mean temperature for the same regions. Cohen et al (2012) propose the following link between temperatures and snow: the reduced sea ice cover of the Arctic Ocean and the enhanced air temperatures in fall cause higher evaporation from the Arctic Ocean, leading to increased tropospheric moisture in the Arctic. More moisture results in more snowfall over the Eurasian continent, increasing the SCE. The increased snow cover strengthens the Siberian High, a strong anticyclonic system generally persistent between October and April. This system is strong enough to affect weather patterns in large parts of the NH, resulting in changes in the large-scale circulation of the NH (Panagiotopoulos et al 2005). As a result, outbreaks of cold Arctic air masses into the mid-latitudes are more frequent, leading to low temperatures over the eastern part of North America and Northern Eurasia. According to Cohen et al (2012), these are exactly the same regions that have experienced a cooling trend in the winter temperature over the past twenty years. While this chain of events is plausible (and some are confirmed by observations), existing climate models are not yet capable of reproducing these processes. On the contrary, Cohen et al (2012) showed that they predict a slightly decreasing SCE in October for Eurasia and an increase in winter temperatures over the continents in the NH. This is not surprising because the simu

  1. Climate extremes and ecosystem productivity in global warming simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; Wehner, M. F.; Collins, W.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystem responses to present-day droughts and heat-waves are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts on ecosystems, under the assumption that the temperature above which vegetation experiences heat and drought stress is invariant with changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration. Understanding how the impacts of temperature extremes on ecosystems can change with climate change is essential for correctly evaluating and developing Earth System Models (ESMs). The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) historical and future (RCP8.5) climate predictions were analyzed in this study to illustrate non-stationarity of climate impacts on ecosystems, as evident by changes in the distribution of Gross Primary Production (GPP) as a function of temperature between future and historical climates. These changes consist of (1) a uniform shift in the GPP distribution toward warmer temperatures between future and historical climates, and (2) a proportional increase in GPP at all temperatures, consistent with CO2 fertilization. The temperature at which GPP has a local maximum within a given climate increases with global warming and closely tracks the change in mean temperature for each ecosystem. This maximum GPP temperature can be conceptualized as a stable equilibrium determined by the temperature at which an increase in plant water stress is compensated by a decrease in light stress (decreasing cloud cover) with increasing temperature. Temperature relative to the temperature of maximum GPP is proposed as an improved measure of climate extremes more relevant to ecosystem productivity than absolute temperature. The percentage change in GPP attributed to changes in relative temperature extremes is up to 3% per K (decrease in GPP), and reflects both an increase in the frequency of climate extremes in global warming scenarios and the change in temperature criteria for negative climate impacts on ecosystem productivity. Temperature at GPP maximum as a function of the growing season average temperature, for each ecosystem type. Lengths of crosshairs indicate the standard error of the CMIP5 ensemble average. Both future and historical averages are shown (the temperature of GPP maximum increases monotonically with growing season average temperature between future and historical simulations).

  2. Warming and altered precipitation affect litter decomposition and nitrogen dynamics in a mixed-grass prairie

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Luo, Y.; Xu, X.; Li, D.; Niu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Litter decomposition and nitrogen dynamics are important processes in ecosystems and how they respond to climate changes is a global concern. In order to explore the effects of warming and altered precipitation on litter decomposition and nitrogen dynamics, we conducted a field decomposition experiment with warming (+3°C) and altered precipitation (half and double) in a mixed-grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA, using litter bags with dominant C3 and C4 grasses since June, 2012. Litter bags were collected every month in the first six months and subsequently every three month thereafter. Remaining litter biomass as well as element concentration were measured in the lab. Warming significantly decreased the litter decomposition rate (k) by 25.4% for C3 grasses and 25.0% for C4 grasses. Doubled precipitation significantly increased the litter decomposition rate by 23.3% for C3 grasses and 30.1% for C4 grasses while half precipitation showed no significant effects. Soil temperature and soil moisture, controlled by warming and altered precipitation, are found to be the most important factors in regulating litter decomposition rate. Warming also decreased N concentration in C3 grasses while doubled precipitation increased N concentration in C4 grasses after one year of field decomposition. During that time, N concentration showed an average increase of 99.6% in C3 grass while only 68.1% in C4 grass. Other elements such as P and K were not much affected by these treatments although there were significant differences between C3 and C4 grasses. Our results suggest that climate change has significant impact on litter decomposition rate, which could influence the carbon balance of the ecosystem. Nutrient dynamics, especially nitrogen, were shown to be specific to plant types under altered climatic conditions. Our results show that conclusion derived from single-factor climate change experiments should be treated with caution due to interactive effects of warming with altered precipitation and differential responses of C3 and C4 plants.

  3. Voluminous Icelandic Basaltic Eruptions Appear To Cause Abrupt Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. L.

    2011-12-01

    Beginning on June 21, 1783, Laki volcano in southern Iceland erupted 14.7 km3 basalt, ejecting 24 Mt SO_{2} into the stratosphere where it was blown eastward and northward and 98 Mt into the troposphere where the jet stream transported it southeastward to Europe. The "dry fog" observed in Europe with an estimated mean concentration of 60 ppbv SO2, raised daytime temperatures as much as 3.3^{o}C, causing the warmest July in England from 1659 when measurements began until 1983. SO2, tropospheric O_{3}, NO2, and fine ash absorb ultraviolet energy from the sun that causes the bonds between and within their atoms to oscillate at 47 times higher frequency than the bonds in CO_{2} absorbing infrared radiation. Temperature is proportional to the kinetic energy of these oscillations, i.e. the frequency squared. Thus these gases are raised to much higher temperatures than greenhouse gases. The Stefan-Boltzmann law says that radiation from these molecules is a constant times temperature raised to the fourth power. As a result, SO2 and ash radiate far more energy back to earth than CO_{2}, causing warming. Another way to look at the energy involved shows that 15 ppbv SO2 in the 0.3-0.42 ?m wavelength band absorbs as much solar energy per unit volume as 388,000 ppbv CO_{2} absorbs infrared energy in the 12.7-17.5 ?m band. Basaltic volcanoes such as Laki emit 10 to 100 times more SO2 than more evolved magmas and are less explosive, leaving most of the SO_{2} in the troposphere. All 14 Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) sudden warmings between 46 and 11 ka are contemporaneous with the highest levels of sulfate in the GISP2 drill hole near Summit Greenland. These DO events typically warmed the northern hemisphere out of the ice age within decades, but as volcanism waned, ocean temperatures cooled the world back into an ice age within centuries. The world finally exited the ice age when voluminous volcanism continued from 11.6 to 9.6 ka. Basaltic table mountains or tuyas in Iceland document major sub-glacial eruptions that occurred during DO 0, A, and 1 (11.6, 13.1, and 14.6 ka) and similar but less well dated activity at least over the past million years. Massive melting of a thick ice sheet by volcanoes would decrease overburden pressure on the magma chambers, potentially increasing volcanism. Continued basaltic eruptions over decades enhanced by such a feedback c8ould explain why the intervals between DO events (1300 to 8800 years) are more random than cyclic and the evidence for sudden influxes of fresh water into the North Atlantic documented during DO events. Concentrations of sulfate in Greenland were as high from 1928 to 1985 as during the largest DO event. Trace element analysis shows this sulfate came from smoke stacks in northern Russia, Europe, and central North America. Observed levels of SO2, NO_{x}, tropospheric O$_{3} and black carbon are more than sufficient to have been the primary cause of 20th century global warming. Efforts to reduce acid rain by reducing emissions of these pollutants "accidentally" slowed global warming by 1998. Mean global surface temperatures have remained high but have not increased since then.

  4. Increases in the annual range of soil water storage at northern middle and high latitudes under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Wen-Ying; Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.

    2015-05-01

    Soil water storage is a fundamental signal in the land hydrological cycle and changes in soil moisture can affect regional climate. In this study, we used simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives to investigate changes in the annual range of soil water storage under global warming at northern middle and high latitudes. Results show that future warming could lead to significant declines in snowfall, and a corresponding lack of snowmelt water recharge to the soil, which makes soil water less available during spring and summer. Conversely, more precipitation as rainfall results in higher recharge to soil water during its accumulating season. Thus, the wettest month of soil water gets wetter, and the driest month gets drier, resulting in an increase of the annual range and suggesting that stronger heterogeneity in global water distribution (changing extremes) could occur under global warming; this has implications for water management and water security under a changing climate.

  5. Global warming and the potential spread of vector-borne diseases

    SciTech Connect

    Patz, J.

    1996-12-31

    Climatic factors influence many vector-borne infectious diseases, in addition to demographic, biological, and ecological determinants. The United Nation`s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates an unprecedented global rise of 2.0 C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the spread of many serious infectious diseases, including malaria and dengue fever. Global warming would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the mosquito`s geographic range, increasing reproductive and biting rates, and shortening pathogen incubation period. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability and sea level rise could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. A review of this literature, as well as preliminary data from ongoing studies will be presented.

  6. An update on human-induced climate change: global warming: coming, ready or not.

    E-print Network

    Trenberth, Kevin Edward

    1 An update on human-induced climate change: global warming: coming, ready or not. Dr. Kevin E activity. There is no doubt that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and causes warming, and it has a long significantly to warming, while aerosols and dust more often cause cooling and regionalize some of the radiative

  7. Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change.

    PubMed

    Gruber, Nicolas

    2011-05-28

    In the coming decades and centuries, the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems will become increasingly stressed by at least three independent factors. Rising temperatures, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation will cause substantial changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment, which will then affect the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems in ways that we are only beginning to fathom. Ocean warming will not only affect organisms and biogeochemical cycles directly, but will also increase upper ocean stratification. The changes in the ocean's carbonate chemistry induced by the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) (i.e. ocean acidification) will probably affect many organisms and processes, although in ways that are currently not well understood. Ocean deoxygenation, i.e. the loss of dissolved oxygen (O(2)) from the ocean, is bound to occur in a warming and more stratified ocean, causing stress to macro-organisms that critically depend on sufficient levels of oxygen. These three stressors-warming, acidification and deoxygenation-will tend to operate globally, although with distinct regional differences. The impacts of ocean acidification tend to be strongest in the high latitudes, whereas the low-oxygen regions of the low latitudes are most vulnerable to ocean deoxygenation. Specific regions, such as the eastern boundary upwelling systems, will be strongly affected by all three stressors, making them potential hotspots for change. Of additional concern are synergistic effects, such as ocean acidification-induced changes in the type and magnitude of the organic matter exported to the ocean's interior, which then might cause substantial changes in the oxygen concentration there. Ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation are essentially irreversible on centennial time scales, i.e. once these changes have occurred, it will take centuries for the ocean to recover. With the emission of CO(2) being the primary driver behind all three stressors, the primary mitigation strategy is to reduce these emissions. PMID:21502171

  8. A Robust Response of the Hadley Circulation to Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2014-01-01

    Tropical rainfall is expected to increase in a warmer climate. Yet, recent studies have inferred that the Hadley Circulation (HC), which is primarily driven by latent heating from tropical rainfall, is weakened under global warming. Here, we show evidence of a robust intensification of the HC from analyses of 33 CMIP5 model projections under a scenario of 1 per year CO2 emission increase. The intensification is manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze, characterized by a pronounced increase in the zonal mean ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere, a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone and enhanced rainfall in the deep tropics. These changes occur in conjunction with a rise in the region of maximum outflow of the HC, with accelerated meridional mass outflow in the uppermost branch of the HC away from the equator, coupled to a weakened inflow in the return branches of the HC in the lower troposphere.

  9. More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haarsma, Reindert; Hazeleger, Wilco; Severijns, Camiel; de Vries, Hylke; Ster, Andreas; Bintanja, Richard; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van den Brink, Henk; Baatsen, Michiel

    2014-05-01

    Using a very high resolution global climate model (~25 km grid size) with prescribed sea surface temperatures we have investigated the change in the occurrence of hurricane-force (> 32.6 m/s) storms over Western Europe due to climate change. The results show a large increase during early autumn (Aug-Oct). The majority of these storms originate as a tropical cyclone. Using SST sensitivity experiments we have tested the hypothesis that the increase is due to the rise in Atlantic tropical SST thereby extending eastwards the breeding ground of tropical cyclones, yielding more frequent and intense hurricanes following pathways directed towards Europe. En route they transform into extra-tropical depressions and re-intensify after merging with the mid-latitude baroclinic unstable flow. Detailed analysis indicates that the development of a warm seclusion is the main mechanism for the re-intensification and that the hurricane winds are caused by a sting jet.

  10. Permafrost and infrastructure in the usa Basin (Northeast European Russia): possible impacts of global warming.

    PubMed

    Mazhitova, Galina; Karstkarel, Nanka; Oberman, Naum; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Kuhry, Peter

    2004-08-01

    The relationship between permafrost conditions and the distribution of infrastructure in the Usa Basin, Northeast European Russia, is analyzed. About 75% of the Basin is underlain by permafrost terrain with various degrees of continuity (isolated patches to continuous permafrost). The region has a high level of urban and industrial development (e.g., towns, coal mines, hydrocarbon extraction sites, railway, pipelines). GIS-analyses indicate that about 60% of all infrastructure is located in the 'high risk' permafrost area, here defined as the zones of isolated to discontinuous permafrost (3-90% coverage) with 'warm' ground temperatures (0 to -2 degrees C). Ground monitoring, aerial photo interpretation, and permafrost modeling suggest a differential response to future global warming. Most of the permafrost-affected terrain will likely start to thaw within a few decades to a century. This forecast poses serious challenges to permafrost engineering and calls for long-term investments in adequate infrastructure that will pay back overtime. PMID:15387061

  11. FSC-Watch: FSC undermines paper recycling, contributes to global warming FSC undermines paper recycling, contributes to global

    E-print Network

    FSC-Watch: FSC undermines paper recycling, contributes to global warming FSC-Watch FSC undermines paper recycling, contributes to global warming Tags: Canada, Recycling, Certifier conflict of interest industry, as to why the FSC is helping to undermine efforts at paper recycling by allowing

  12. Does flower phenology mirror the slowdown of global warming?

    PubMed

    Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

    2015-06-01

    Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology - which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change - respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901-2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method) lead to distinctly different results and most recent data should be integrated in order not to over- or underestimate future phenological changes. PMID:26078862

  13. Predicting the global warming potential of agro-ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehuger, S.; Gabrielle, B.; Larmanou, E.; Laville, P.; Cellier, P.; Loubet, B.

    2007-04-01

    Nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane are the main biogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate thus requires a capacity to predict the net exchanges of these gases in an integrated manner, as related to environmental conditions and crop management. Here, we used two year-round data sets from two intensively-monitored cropping systems in northern France to test the ability of the biophysical crop model CERES-EGC to simulate GHG exchanges at the plot-scale. The experiments involved maize and rapeseed crops on a loam and rendzina soils, respectively. The model was subsequently extrapolated to predict CO2 and N2O fluxes over an entire crop rotation. Indirect emissions (IE) arising from the production of agricultural inputs and from cropping operations were also added to the final GWP. One experimental site (involving a wheat-maize-barley rotation on a loamy soil) was a net source of GHG with a GWP of 350 kg CO2-C eq ha-1 yr-1, of which 75% were due to IE and 25% to direct N2O emissions. The other site (involving an oilseed rape-wheat-barley rotation on a rendzina) was a net sink of GHG for -250 kg CO2-C eq ha-1 yr-1, mainly due to a higher predicted C sequestration potential and C return from crops. Such modelling approach makes it possible to test various agronomic management scenarios, in order to design productive agro-ecosystems with low global warming impact.

  14. Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

  15. Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

  16. Energy and environmental policy and electric utilities' choice under uncertain global warming

    E-print Network

    Takahashi, Masaki

    1992-01-01

    The paper reviews and discusses uncertainty about global warming science, impact on society. It also discusses what assumptions have been made and how appropriate the assumptions in scenarios have been for estimating global ...

  17. MIT Study Sees Nuclear Power as Green Weapon Against Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dawson, Jim

    2003-12-01

    Although the public doesn't yet view nuclear power as a way to mitigate global warming, an MIT study says a global tripling of nuclear power generation could avoid nearly 2 billion tonnes of carbon emissions annually.

  18. Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of observed extreme precipitation events using record statistics. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking daily rainfall events has significantly increased in the global mean. This increase leads to an average of 12% more rainfall records over 1981-2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of rainfall records peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26% chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only. Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall records can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, rising temperatures have significantly contributed to the observed increase in rainfall records afterwards.

  19. Ozone depletion and global warming potentials of CF3I

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, S.; Burkholder, J.B.; Ravishankara, A.R.; Garcia, R.R. |

    1994-10-01

    Laboratory measurements of the infrared and near-ultraviolet absorption characteristics of CF3I (a potentially useful substitute for halons) are presented. Using these data together with a detailed photochemical model, it is shown that the lifetime of this gas in the sunlit atmosphere is less than a day. The chemistry of iodine in the stratosphere is evaluated, and it is shown that any iodine that reaches the stratosphere will be very effective for ozone destruction there. However, the extremely short lifetime of CF3I greatly limits its transport to the stratosphere when released at the surface, especially at midlatitudes, and the total anthropogenic surface release of CF3I is likely to be far less than that of natural iodocarbons such as CH3I on a global basis. It is highly probable that the steady-state ozone depletion potential (ODP) of CF3I for surface releases is less than 0.008 and more likely below 0.0001. Measured infrared absorption data are also combined with the lifetime to show that the 20-year global warming potential (GWP) of this gas is likely to be very small, less than 5. Therefore, this study suggests that neither the ODP nor the GWP of this gas represent significant obstacles to its use as a replacement for halons.

  20. Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming.

    PubMed

    La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

    2010-11-22

    Mountains, especially in the tropics, harbour a unique and large portion of the world's biodiversity. Their geographical isolation, limited range size and unique environmental adaptations make montane species potentially the most threatened under impeding climate change. Here, we provide a global baseline assessment of geographical range contractions and extinction risk of high-elevation specialists in a future warmer world. We consider three dispersal scenarios for simulated species and for the world's 1009 montane bird species. Under constrained vertical dispersal (VD), species with narrow vertical distributions are strongly impacted; at least a third of montane bird diversity is severely threatened. In a scenario of unconstrained VD, the location and structure of mountain systems emerge as a strong driver of extinction risk. Even unconstrained lateral movements offer little improvement to the fate of montane species in the Afrotropics, Australasia and Nearctic. Our results demonstrate the particular roles that the geography of species richness, the spatial structure of lateral and particularly vertical range extents and the specific geography of mountain systems have in determining the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change. Our findings confirm the outstanding levels of biotic perturbation and extinction risk that mountain systems are likely to experience under global warming and highlight the need for additional knowledge on species' vertical distributions, dispersal and adaptive capacities. PMID:20534610

  1. Metaphors of Primary School Students Relating to the Concept of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dogru, Mustafa; Sarac, Esra

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to reveal the metaphors of primary school students (n = 362) relating to the concept of global warming. Data collected by completing the expression of "global warming is like..., because..." of the students were analysed by use of qualitative and quantitative data analysis techniques. According to findings of…

  2. Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 2. Potential Effectiveness of Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    In an earlier paper (Skamp, Boyes, & Stanisstreet, 2009b), students' beliefs and willingness to act in relation to 16 specific actions related to global warming were compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those actions.…

  3. A New Type of Debate for Global Warming and Scientific Literacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gautier, Catherine

    2012-01-01

    Expanding on some ideas introduced in the paper by Albe and Gombert (2012) "Students' communication, argumentation and knowledge in a citizen' conference on global warming", I explore two issues relevant to their work: global warming (GW) as a socioscientific controversy and scientific literacy in regards to climate change science. For the first…

  4. Senior Secondary Indian Students' Views about Global Warming, and Their Implications for Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chhokar, Kiran; Dua, Shweta; Taylor, Neil; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2012-01-01

    For individuals to make informed lifestyle choices that may help to reduce global warming, they need some understanding of this phenomenon and the factors that contribute to it. However, there is a "gap" between knowledge about global warming and willingness to take personal action. So, although education may be effective in enhancing student…

  5. Using Interactive Technology to Support Students' Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Varma, Keisha; Linn, Marcia C.

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we examine middle school students' understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming. We designed and refined a technology-enhanced curriculum module called "Global Warming: Virtual Earth". In the module activities, students conduct virtual experiments with a visualization of the greenhouse effect. They analyze data and draw…

  6. Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 1. Students' Beliefs and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Using survey methodology, students' beliefs, and willingness to act, about 16 specific actions related to global warming are compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those actions. In general there was a disparity between…

  7. Presenting Global Warming and Evolution as Public Health Issues to Encourage Acceptance of Scientific Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stover, Shawn K.; McArthur, Laurence B.; Mabry, Michelle L.

    2013-01-01

    Although evidence supporting anthropogenic global warming and evolution by natural selection is considerable, the public does not embrace these concepts. The current study explores the hypothesis that individuals will become more receptive to scientific viewpoints if evidence for evolution and implications of global warming are presented as issues…

  8. CO2 [Carbon Dioxide] Diet for a Greenhouse Planet: A Citizen's Guide for Slowing Global Warming.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeCicco, John; And Others

    This guide discusses the global warming issue and offers a plan to facilitate a decrease in the emissions of the major greenhouse gases in the United States, including those under the control of individual citizens. A letter from the organization's president describes its involvement with the global warming issue. A brief overview presented in the…

  9. A Vast Machine Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming

    E-print Network

    Edwards, Paul N.

    A Vast Machine Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming Paul N. Edwards models, climate data, and the politics of global warming / Paul N. Edwards. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-262-01392-5 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Weather forecasting. 2

  10. The Understandings of Global Warming and Learning Styles: A Phenomenographic Analysis of Prospective Primary School Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Demirkaya, Hilmi

    2008-01-01

    In this study, statements by prospective primary school teachers such as "I think the word global warming ..." or "I think the term global warming means ..." were analyzed by using qualitative phenomenographic research methods. 142 female (48.3%) and 152 male (51.7%) primary school teacher candidates (n = 294) participated in the study. Moreover,…

  11. Changes in atmospheric eddy length with the seasonal cycle and global warming

    E-print Network

    O'Gorman, Paul

    Changes in atmospheric eddy length with the seasonal cycle and global warming by MASSACHUSETTS Sciences #12;2 #12;Changes in atmospheric eddy length with the seasonal cycle and global warming by Todd A the effect of latent heating on the eddies, a modification to the static stability is used to calculate

  12. How strong is carbon cycle-climate feedback under global warming?

    E-print Network

    Maryland at College Park, University of

    How strong is carbon cycle-climate feedback under global warming? Haifeng Qian Advisor: Prof. Ning of the carbon cycle-climate system. Our results indicate that there is a positive feedback from interactive carbon cycle to the climate system, which means that under the global warming condition, the ecosystem

  13. The change in oceanic O2 inventory associated with recent global warming

    E-print Network

    Keeling, Ralph

    The change in oceanic O2 inventory associated with recent global warming Ralph F. Keeling-latitude origin have freshened (2) over the past few decades. Model studies indicate that upper-ocean warming, 2002 (received for review September 24, 2001) Oceans general circulation models predict that global

  14. News & Blogs U.S. Lightning Strikes May Increase 50% Due to Global Warming

    E-print Network

    Romps, David M.

    News & Blogs U.S. Lightning Strikes May Increase 50% Due to Global Warming By: Dr. Jeff Masters dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning capable of igniting more forest fires, according to a study published that for each degree Centigrade (1.8°F) of global warming, lightning in the U.S. is expected to increase by 12

  15. DOES FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION LEAD TO GLOBAL WARMING? Stephen E. Schwartz

    E-print Network

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    DOES FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION LEAD TO GLOBAL WARMING? Stephen E. Schwartz Environmental Chemistry of the United States Department of Energy, under Contract No. DE-AC02-76CH00016. #12;Schwartz--Fossil Fuel--Fri, Dec 1, 2006 DOES FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION LEAD TO GLOBAL WARMING? Stephen E. Schwartz Environmental

  16. Discounting and the evaluation of global warming policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wheeler, William James

    This dissertation consists of three essays that study the evidence for non-constant discount rates and implications for policy analysis of global warming. The first essay examines the empirical literature on discount rates implicit in energy-efficiency decisions. It uses the technique of meta-analysis to quantitatively synthesize the empirical literature on discount rates as a step toward finding the discount rates to use in life-cycle models. Results show that the type of good matters: air conditioners have the highest implied discount rates and automobiles have the lowest discount rates. Discount rates decline with income, and the rate of decline may depend on the good in question. Furthermore, discount rates from hypothetical studies exhibit less decline than those from actual purchase studies. There is a large amount of empirical evidence indicating that private discount rates decline as the time frame of the decision increases. This suggests that a hyperbolic functional form fits the data better exponential functional form. The second essay examines the implications of a hyperbolic functional form for climate change models. Hyperbolic curves are fit to discount rates implied by answers to survey questions. These hyperbolic rates are then incorporated into the DICE model of global warming. The third essay investigates the time path of the pure rate of time preference. In optimization models of the costs and benefits of global climate change this rate is constant over the centuries-long run-time of these models. There is strong evidence, however, that this rate declines as income increases. The final essay extends the analysis of the rate of time preference by using a larger data set than has previously been applied. Using the proper data the rate of time preference can be calculated for a large number of countries over many years. The values of the rate of time preference for each country can be compared by income level to test the hypothesis that it declines with income. The analysis indicates that the rate of time preference declines sharply at low, but increasing, levels of income and then levels off.

  17. Response and impact of equatorial ocean dynamics and tropical instability waves in the tropical Atlantic under global warming

    E-print Network

    Xie, Shang-Ping

    Atlantic under global warming: A regional coupled downscaling study Hyodae Seo1,2 and ShangPing Xie1. Under global warming, both global and regional models exhibit an increased (decreased) rainfall thermal stratification is suggested to be more important under global warming. The strengthened upwelling

  18. A unified sea-level response function to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkelmann, Ricarda; Mengel, Matthias; Reese, Ronja; Levermann, Anders

    2015-04-01

    Linear response functions provide an alternative to process-based models to project future sea-level rise. They are designed to capture the sea-level response to a certain forcing in a comprehensive manner without relying on the full understanding but comprising all processes involved. Here, we propose one unified sea-level response function to global warming as a synthesis of different response functions of the major contributors: oceanic thermal expansion, ice loss from mountain glaciers as well as ice loss from the two ice-sheets on Greenland and Antarctica both through changes in the surface mass balance and dynamic discharge. Except for surface mass balance changes of the ice sheets which occur instantaneously, each response function is inherently time-dependent and accounts for the fact that past climate change will continue to influence sea-level rise in the future. The proposed functions separately estimate the contributions from the main sea-level components on a centennial time scale. The validity of the approach is assessed by comparing the sea-level estimates obtained via the response functions to observations as well as projections from comprehensive models. Total sea level rise and the observed contributions in the past decades are reasonably well reproduced by our approach. Provided that the underlying dynamic mechanisms do not undergo a qualitative change within the 21st century, the response functions found for the individual components can therefore be merged into a single response function in order to project global sea-level rise for a given global mean temperature anomaly.

  19. Cool Roofs to Save Money and Delay Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2006-04-01

    White roofs, and now cool-colored roofs, with a high reflectivity or `albedo' have a long history (best known around the Mediterranean) of keeping buildings and cities cool. In modern times, cool roofs have been shown to reduce air conditioning (a-c) demand and slow the formation of ozone (smog). Studies establishing a typical 10% reduction in a-c demand and electricity savings due to white roofs in California (CA) resulted in the 2005 CA new building energy efficiency standard prescribing that low-slope roofs be white, but exempting sloping roofs for aesthetic reasons. The advent (thanks to physicists' efforts) of inexpensive colored pigments with high albedo has led to 2008 CA standards requiring that even sloping roofs be cool. Here, I show that cooling the planet by reducing urban albedo through white and other cool roofs is a direct effect, much larger and immediate than the 2nd-order cooling from reduced CO2 from reduced a-c use. I then investigate widespread deployment of cool roof in major tropical and temperate cities, which cover 2% of global land area and have a proportionately higher albedo impact due to lower latitude. Here, cool roofs and cooler pavements can raise urban albedo by 10%. This directly drops the global average temperature by ˜0.05 /deg C. Though small compared to a likely 3 /deg C rise by 2060, an immediate drop of 0.05 /deg C represents a reprieve in global warming of 1 year, and represents avoiding a year's current annual world emissions of CO2, i.e. 25 GT(CO2). At a trading price of 25/tCO2, this is worth ˜625B. Cooling the planet also could save annually hundreds of billions on a-c electric bills. Finally I suggest policies to increase cool roof deployment, for example, developed world Kyoto signatories could use its CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) for cool roof programs in developing countries.

  20. Is Global Warming Melting the Greenland Ice Sheet?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanna, E.; Huybrechts, P.; Janssens, I.; McConnell, J.; Das, S.; Cappelen, J.; Steffen, K.; Krabill, W.; Thomas, R.; Stephens, A.

    2004-12-01

    Concerted observational and modelling programmes are underway to determine the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and therefore help predict its response to future climatic change. We present results of meteorological modelling based on ERA-40 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Our novel surface-mass-balance history of the ice sheet for 1958-2003, is based on accumulation (snowfall minus evaporation/sublimation) modelling and a new monthly melt-water runoff model by Janssens & Huybrechts (Huybrechts 2002). These techniques combined yield valuable insights into the past and present state and variability of the Greenland ice mass and links with climate. Aspects of the validation of the new accumulation, runoff and SMB series are discussed. There was considerable interannual variability in snow accumulation, runoff and mass balance over the last 46 years. By comparing with long-term temperature, precipitation and accumulation records from the meteorological stations and ice cores, we discuss possible climatic factors forcing the ice in this period. There are distinct signals in runoff and SMB following three major volcanic eruptions. Runoff losses from the ice sheet were 280(±28) km^3 yr^-1 in 1961-90 and 391(+-39) km^3 yr^-1 in 1998-2003. Significantly rising runoff since the 1990s has been partly offset by more precipitation. However, our best estimate of overall mass balance declined from -3(±53) km^3 yr^-1 in 1961-90 to -65(±61) km^3 yr^-1 in 1998-2003. Additional dynamical factors that cause an acceleration of ice flow near the margins, and possible enhanced iceberg calving, may have led to a more negative mass balance in the past few years than suggested here. The implication is a significant and accelerating recent contribution from the ice sheet, about 0.22 mm yr^-1 over the last six years, to global sea-level rise. Runoff and thinning of the ice-sheet margins increased substantially since the 1990s. However, massive snow accumulation over south-east Greenland during winter 2002/03, well shown in our analysis, led to unprecedented thickening in recent NASA aircraft LIDAR surveys. Do these recent changes indicate more extreme weather conditions including warming over the Ice Sheet, more storminess and higher accumulation events, due to global warming?

  1. High-resolution peatland photos show change with global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-11-01

    As global average temperatures rise, vast tracks of peatland currently encased in permafrost will be affected. As the ground thaws, peatlands will evolve in either of two directions. Along one path, land that was previously propped up by supportive permafrost subsides, forming a shallow basin that fills with water—a thermokarst lake. In the new lake, peat undergoes anaerobic bacterial decay, releasing methane to the environment. Alternatively, permafrost thawing can result in lake drainage. In the drained lake beds, fen vegetation and mosses can grow, drawing down atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. The prevalence of these two processes, and their relationship to changing temperatures, remains an important question in understanding the consequences of permafrost thaw on the global carbon cycle.

  2. Changes in a modeled MJO with idealized global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Ping

    2013-02-01

    This study estimates how the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) will change with uniform global warming of 2 and 4 K at the Earth surface using an aqua-planet version of the NCAR CAM2 implemented with the Tiedtke convection scheme. Solar insolation is specified at the vernal equinox with a diurnal cycle. Thirty-year integrations are carried out for each case and the last 20-year's results are used for analysis. For the warmer cases, the modeled MJO's eastward propagation remains dominant at zonal wave numbers 1-4, and notable increase occurs in variance, power spectra, and the number of prominent MJO events. The convective heating is enhanced more in upper troposphere, and the MJO power spectra increase more on 20-30 days than on 30-60 days. In all cases, composite life cycles of prominent MJO events show that the anomalous surface latent heat flux lags precipitation by about 90° in phase, characterizing the nonlinear wind induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) to destabilize the MJO. Interacting with a warmer surface in the 4 K case, perturbations of zonal wind and temperature at bottom model level contribute to the nonlinear WISHE coherently with the latent heat flux. Meanwhile anomalous boundary layer convergence leads precipitation by some 45° in phase, indicating the frictional moisture convergence to maintain the enhanced MJO.

  3. Transitional solar dynamics, cosmic rays and global warming

    E-print Network

    A. Bershadskii

    2009-04-12

    Solar activity is studied using a cluster analysis of the time-fluctuations of the sunspot number. It is shown that in an Historic period the high activity components of the solar cycles exhibit strong clustering, whereas in a Modern period (last seven solar cycles: 1933-2007) they exhibit a white-noise (non-)clustering behavior. Using this observation it is shown that in the Historic period, emergence of the sunspots in the solar photosphere was strongly dominated by turbulent photospheric convection. In the Modern period, this domination was broken by a new more active dynamics of the inner layers of the convection zone. Then, it is shown that the dramatic change of the sun dynamics at the transitional period (between the Historic and Modern periods, solar cycle 1933-1944yy) had a clear detectable impact on Earth climate. A scenario of a chain of transitions in the solar convective zone is suggested in order to explain the observations, and a forecast for the global warming is suggested on the basis of this scenario. A relation between the recent transitions and solar long-period chaotic dynamics has been found. Contribution of the galactic turbulence (due to galactic cosmic rays) has been discussed. These results are also considered in a content of chaotic climate dynamics at millennial timescales.

  4. Valuation of mountain glaciation response on global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Ananicheva, M.D.; Davidovich, N.V.

    1997-12-31

    Quantitative estimates of main climatic parameters, influencing the glacier regime (summer air temperature and annual solid precipitation), and glaciologic characteristics (mass balance components, equilibrium line altitude and rate of air temperature at this height), received on the basis of the scenario for a climate development according to R. Wetherald and S. Manabe (1982) are submitted. The possible reaction of mountain glaciation on global warming is considered for two mountain countries: South-eastern Alaska and Pamir-Alay (Central Asia). In given paper we have tried to evaluate changes of the mountain glaciation regime for a time of CO{sub 2} doubling in the atmosphere, basing on the scenario of climate development and modern statistical relationships between climatic and glaciologic parameters. The GCM scenario of R. Wetherald and C. Manabe (GFDL model) which is made with respect of mountain territories is in the basis our calculations. As initial materials we used data of long-term observations and the maps of World Atlas of Snow and Ice Resources (WASIR).

  5. Atmospheric lifetime and global warming potential of a perfluoropolyether.

    PubMed

    Young, Cora J; Hurley, Michael D; Wallington, Timothy J; Mabury, Scott A

    2006-04-01

    Perfluoropolyethers (PFPEs) are a family of perfluorinated fluids used mainly in industrial applications. Lower molecular weight commercial PFPE fractions have boiling points ranging between 55 and 270 degrees C, and have the potential to escape into the atmosphere. To improve our understanding of the atmospheric chemistry of PFPEs, a distilled fraction of a commercial mixture containing perfluoropolymethylisopropyl ethers (PFPMIEs) was introduced into an atmospheric chamber system. Relative rate techniques were used to determine upper limits for the rate constants for reactions of OH and Cl with PFPMIE in 700 Torr of air at 296 K. The reactivity of PFPMIE with Cl was less than 2 x 10(-17) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1), while the reactivity with OH was less than 6.8 x 10(-16) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1), indicating low reactivity in the troposphere. Consequently, the lifetime of PFPMIE should be limited bytransport to the mesosphere, where photolysis by Lyman-alpha radiation at 121.6 nm will be efficient. By analogy to perfluorinated alkanes, the lower limit for the total atmospheric lifetime is 800 years. PFPMIE was shown to have instantaneous radiative forcing of 0.65 W m(-2) ppb(-1), which corresponds to a global warming potential on a 100 year time scale of 9000 relative to CO2 and 1.95 relative to CFC-11. PMID:16646459

  6. Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Krupke, Christian H.; White, Michael A.; Alexander, Corinne E.

    2008-10-01

    It has been conjectured that global warming will increase the prevalence of insect pests in many agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we quantitatively assess four of the key pests of maize, one of the most important systems in North American grain production. Using empirically generated estimates of pest overwintering thresholds and degree-day requirements, along with climate change projections from a high-resolution climate model, we project potential future ranges for each of these pests in the United States. Our analysis suggests the possibility of increased winter survival and greater degree-day accumulations for each of the pests surveyed. We find that relaxed cold limitation could expand the range of all four pest taxa, including a substantial range expansion in the case of corn earworm (H. zea), a migratory, cold-intolerant pest. Because the corn earworm is a cosmopolitan pest that has shown resistance to insecticides, our results suggest that this expansion could also threaten other crops, including those in high-value areas of the western United States. Because managing significant additional pressure from this suite of established pests would require additional pest management inputs, the projected decreases in cold limitation and increases in heat accumulation have the potential to significantly alter the pest management landscape for North American maize production. Further, these range expansions could have substantial economic impacts through increased seed and insecticide costs, decreased yields, and the downstream effects of changes in crop yield variability.

  7. Is increased Nuclear Energy a practical response to Global Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, Jeanne

    2007-05-01

    With the threat of global warming there has been renewed interest in nuclear energy as a carbon-free energy source. There are currently 15 nuclear power plants planned for completion in the U.S. by 2014. In the last 30 years, however, investment and public support for nuclear energy has been minimal. Some factors that led to this loss of interest - high economic costs, risk of accident and radiation exposure, and the challenges of storing nuclear waste - have been analyzed in several recent publications. Comparing the costs and risks of nuclear energy to the benefits in reduced carbon emissions is the goal of this report. Coal plants contribute the most carbon dioxide of all types of power plants. The method of this study is a direct comparison of coal plants and nuclear plants in four areas: the current cost per kWh, the predicted annual cost for health issues, the statistically predicted deaths, and the clean-up costs assuming each facility is as ``green'' as possible. A normalized cost/risk value is then calculated for each plant type. Discussion for how these values are likely to vary is included. To cite this abstract, use the following reference: http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2007.NWS07.C1.11

  8. U.S. commitments and responsibilities to reduce global warmings: Contributions of state-level policies and programs

    SciTech Connect

    Wilt, C.A.; Feldman, D.L.

    1995-12-01

    Global warming is one of the most contentious and complex environmental issues confronting scientists and public policy makers. The scope and potential impacts of global warming are immense, affecting virtually all natural processes at many levels, including coastal zone erosion, estuarine habitat, forests, and agriculture. We hypothesize that managing the natural and societal impacts of global warming, including the costs of its management, abatement, and adaptation, requires not only the cooperation of international agencies and national government, but of individual states and provinces as well. There has been a considerable increase in state-level activity to reduce global warming in the United States, but there has been little assessment of its extent or state motivations. This paper will provide an overview of possible U.S. states` commitments and responsibilities under international treaties and agreements, as well as national policy decrees such as the Clinton Administrations` Climate Change Action Plan. A review of current states` activities with brief case studies of the more progressive state programs (Connecticut, Iowa, California, Missouri, Oregon), their achievements, and their significance. We focus upon federally-mandated global change activities imposed upon states (e.g., national regulations to conserve energy or reduce emissions) and state-motivated policies not required by any national regulation (e.g., land use, transportation, regional planning policies with impacts on global change.) The latter policies may be aimed specifically at global warming prevention or mitigation or they may be incidental, beneficial by-products of policies intended for other purposes--so called `no regrets` policies. We compare the performance of state policies in these two categories in order to ascertain their relative effectiveness and promise for addressing climate change problems.

  9. Worldwide, accelerating glacier loss provides independent and startling evidence that global warming is occurring1 It is now clear that the Earth is warming rapidly due to man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trap-

    E-print Network

    Combes, Stacey A.

    that global warming is occurring1 . It is now clear that the Earth is warming rapidly due to man to rise2 . Climate change is already happening, but we can strive to keep global warming within tolerable seeks to limit global warm- ing to a maximum of 2°C over pre-industrial levels. Although a warming of 1

  10. 40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis...I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced...chemical) Chemical formula Global warming potential (time horizon)...

  11. 40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis...I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced...chemical) Chemical formula Global warming potential (time horizon)...

  12. 40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis...I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced...chemical) Chemical formula Global warming potential (time horizon)...

  13. 40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis...I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced...chemical) Chemical formula Global warming potential (time horizon)...

  14. 40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis...I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced...chemical) Chemical formula Global warming potential (time horizon)...

  15. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shongwe, M. E.

    2010-01-01

    Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often interpolated or extrapolated to give an indication of the likelihood of a certain event within a given period or interval. Under changing climatic conditions, the statistical properties of climate extremes are also changing. It is an important scientific goal to predict how the properties of extreme events change. To achieve this goal, observational and model studies aimed at revealing important features are a necessary prerequisite. Notable progress has been made in understanding mechanisms that influence climate variability and extremes in many parts of the globe including Europe. However, some of the recently observed unprecedented extremes cannot be fully explained from the already identified forcing factors. A better understanding of why these extreme events occur and their sensitivity to certain reinforcing and/or competing factors is useful. Understanding their basic form as well as their temporal variability is also vital and can contribute to global scientific efforts directed at advancing climate prediction capabilities, particularly making skilful forecasts and realistic projections of extremes. In this thesis temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe and Africa, respectively, are investigated. Emphasis is placed on the mechanisms underlying the occurrence of the extremes, their predictability and their likely response to global warming. The focus is on some selected seasons when extremes typically occur. An atmospheric energy budget analysis for the record-breaking European Autumn 2006 event has been carried out with the goal to identify the sources of energy for the extreme event. Net radiational heating is compared to surface turbulent fluxes of energy and dynamic horizontal advection of heat. There is clear evidence that the central North Atlantic Ocean was the major source of energy for the Autumn 2006 extreme event. Within Europe, anomalously high atmospheric water-vapor loading played a significant role through its strong greenhouse effect which resulted in an increase of downwelling infrared flux to the surface. Potential influences and connections between boreal snow cover during the melt season (February--April) and near-surface temperature in the spring season are established. Large amounts of snow act as a precursor to cold spring seasons by altering the coupling between the land and the overlying air through a modification of the surface energy and hydrological processes. In operational numerical models, a snow signal is found to provide some seasonal forecast skill for cold spring seasons in Europe. Changes in the intensity of droughts and floods in Africa in response to global warming are investigated and compared with changes in mean precipitation simulated by an ensemble of climate models selected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4) set. The model simulations are objectively combined using a Bayesian weighting procedure. In southern Africa south of about 15° S, the most robust climate-change signal is a shortening of the main rainfall season. This arises from a delayed onset of seasonal rainfall associated with a reduction in lower-tropospheric moisture advection from the southwestern Indian Ocean. The semi-arid areas closer to the Kalahari desert are projected to become drier, while the wet areas are projected to become wetter. East Africa is projected to get wet in the future climate, much wetter than other regions within the same latitudinal belt. The zonal asymmetry in tropical precipitation increase is associated with a shift towards positive Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM)-like events via an alteration in the structure of the Eastern Hemisphere Walker circulation.

  16. WHAT TO DO ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE? Slowing the rate of carbon burning won't stop global warming

    E-print Network

    Baez, John

    WHAT TO DO ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE? #12;Slowing the rate of carbon burning won't stop global warming: most CO2 stays in the air over a century, though individual molecules come and go. Global warming. But we need to research it -- starting now. If global warming gets bad, public opinion may suddently flip

  17. Role of global warming on the statistics of recordbreaking temperatures S. Redner 1, * and Mark R. Petersen 2,+

    E-print Network

    Redner, Sidney

    Role of global warming on the statistics of record­breaking temperatures S. Redner 1, * and Mark R of global warming, where the mean temperature systematically in­ creases with time. Over the 126­year time question arises: is global warming the cause of such heat waves or are they merely statistical fluctuations

  18. Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming

    E-print Network

    Noh, Yign

    Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming)-like variability to global warming varies comparatively between the two different climate system models, i are reduced in the eastern equatorial Pacific under global warming, which erodes the thermo- cline feedback

  19. PUBLISHED ONLINE: 1 APRIL 2012 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1461 135 years of global ocean warming between the

    E-print Network

    Riser, Stephen C.

    of global warming. Warming in the Atlantic Ocean is stronger than in the Pacific. Systematic errors and indicates that globally the oceans have been warming at least since the late-nineteenth or earlyLETTERS PUBLISHED ONLINE: 1 APRIL 2012 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1461 135 years of global ocean

  20. Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Niño

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Mike; Auad, Guillermo

    2001-01-01

    Global average sea surface temperature (SST) from 40°S to 60°N fluctuates ±0.3°C on interannual period scales, with global warming (cooling) during El Niño (La Niña). About 90% of the global warming during El Niño occurs in the tropical global ocean from 20°S to 20°N, half because of large SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño and the other half because of warm SST anomalies occurring over ?80% of the tropical global ocean. From examination of National Centers for Environmental Prediction [Kalnay et al., 1996] and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set [Woodruff et al., 1993] reanalyses, tropical global warming during El Niño is associated with higher troposphere moisture content and cloud cover, with reduced trade wind intensity occurring during the onset phase of El Niño. During this onset phase the tropical global average diabatic heat storage tendency in the layer above the main pycnocline is 1–3 W m?2above normal. Its principal source is a reduction in the poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropical ocean of 2–5 W m?2. Subsequently, peak tropical global warming during El Niño is dissipated by an increase in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere of 2–5 W m?2, with reduced shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in response to increased cloud cover tending to cancel each other. In the extratropical global ocean the reduction in poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropics during the onset of El Niño tends to be balanced by reduction in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere. Thus global warming and cooling during Earth's internal mode of interannual climate variability arise from fluctuations in the global hydrological balance, not the global radiation balance. Since it occurs in the absence of extraterrestrial and anthropogenic forcing, global warming on decadal, interdecadal, and centennial period scales may also occur in association with Earth's internal modes of climate variability on those scales.

  1. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

    PubMed

    Grandey, B S; Wang, C

    2015-01-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate. PMID:26293204

  2. Hypogean carabid beetles as indicators of global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandmayr, Pietro; Giorgi, Filippo; Casale, Achille; Colombetta, Giorgio; Mariotti, Laura; Vigna Taglianti, Augusto; Weber, Friedrich; Pizzolotto, Roberto

    2013-12-01

    Climate change has been shown to impact the geographical and altitudinal distribution of animals and plants, and to especially affect range-restricted polar and mountaintop species. However, little is known about the impact on the relict lineages of cave animals. Ground beetles (carabids) show a wide variety of evolutionary pathways, from soil-surface (epigean) predatory habits to life in caves and in other subterranean (hypogean) compartments. We reconstructed an unprecedented set of species/time accumulation curves of the largest carabid genera in Europe, selected by their degree of ‘underground’ adaptation, from true epigean predators to eyeless highly specialized hypogean beetles. The data show that in recent periods an unexpectedly large number of new cave species were found lying in well established European hotspots; the first peak of new species, especially in the most evolved underground taxa, occurred in the 1920-30s and a second burst after the 70s. Temperature data show large warming rates in both periods, suggesting that the temperature increase in the past century might have induced cave species to expand their habitats into large well-aired cavities and superficial underground compartments, where they can be easily sampled. An alternative hypothesis, based on increased sampling intensity, is less supported by available datasets.

  3. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

    2015-08-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  4. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

    PubMed Central

    Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate. PMID:26293204

  5. Global Warming’s Six Americas: An Audience Segmentation Analysis (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roser-Renouf, C.; Maibach, E.; Leiserowitz, A.

    2009-12-01

    One of the first rules of effective communication is to “know thy audience.” People have different psychological, cultural and political reasons for acting - or not acting - to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and climate change educators can increase their impact by taking these differences into account. In this presentation we will describe six unique audience segments within the American public that each responds to the issue in its own distinct way, and we will discuss methods of engaging each. The six audiences were identified using a nationally representative survey of American adults conducted in the fall of 2008 (N=2,164). In two waves of online data collection, the public’s climate change beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions, values, policy preferences, conservation, and energy-efficiency behaviors were assessed. The data were subjected to latent class analysis, yielding six groups distinguishable on all the above dimensions. The Alarmed (18%) are fully convinced of the reality and seriousness of climate change and are already taking individual, consumer, and political action to address it. The Concerned (33%) - the largest of the Six Americas - are also convinced that global warming is happening and a serious problem, but have not yet engaged with the issue personally. Three other Americas - the Cautious (19%), the Disengaged (12%) and the Doubtful (11%) - represent different stages of understanding and acceptance of the problem, and none are actively involved. The final America - the Dismissive (7%) - are very sure it is not happening and are actively involved as opponents of a national effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Mitigating climate change will require a diversity of messages, messengers and methods that take into account these differences within the American public. The findings from this research can serve as guideposts for educators on the optimal choices for reaching and influencing target groups with varied informational needs, values and beliefs.

  6. Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138

  7. Global Warming and Ozone Layer Depletion: STS Issues for Social Studies Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rye, James A.; Strong, Donna D.; Rubba, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    Explores the inclusion of science-technology-society (STS) education in social studies. Provides background information on global warming and the depletion of the ozone layer. Focuses on reasons for teaching global climate change in the social studies classroom and includes teaching suggestions. Offers a list of Web sites about global climate…

  8. Expansion of the world's deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming

    E-print Network

    Zeng, Ning

    of the world's major subtropical deserts such as the Sahara, the Kalahari, the Gobi, and the Great Sandy DesertExpansion of the world's deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming Ning Zeng1, the model simulated an increase in the world's `warm desert' area of 2.5 million km2 or 10% at the end

  9. Response of the Indian Ocean Basin Mode and Its Capacitor Effect to Global Warming*

    E-print Network

    Xie, Shang-Ping

    Response of the Indian Ocean Basin Mode and Its Capacitor Effect to Global Warming* XIAO-TONG ZHENG, in final form 6 May 2011) ABSTRACT The development of the Indian Ocean basin (IOB) mode and its change~o­induced warming over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and its capacitor effect on summer northwest Pacific climate

  10. Global and Regional Climate Response to Late Twentieth-Century Warming over the Indian Ocean

    E-print Network

    England, Matthew

    Global and Regional Climate Response to Late Twentieth-Century Warming over the Indian Ocean JAMES changes occur over the Indian Ocean, where the increase in tropical SST is found to drive enhanced convection throughout the troposphere. In the extratropics, the warming Indian Ocean is found to induce

  11. The global warming 'hiatus' and its implications on future sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieves, V.; Willis, J. K.; Patzert, W. C.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise is one of the most direct and potentially costly impacts of human caused global warming. It is driven by both melting glaciers and ice sheets (which react to the warming atmosphere and ocean), and direct absorption of heat by the oceans. In fact, over 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases warms the oceans, causing thermal expansion and sea level rise. For this reason the recent warming "hiatus", or slowdown in the rate of global surface temperature increase, may play an important role in ongoing and future sea level rise. Recent studies based on ocean reanalyses have suggested that the low rate of warming at the ocean surface (which is nearly identical to the rate of global surface temperature increase) is compensated by more rapid warming at depth. We analyzed ocean in situ observations and satellite measurements of sea level independently of these reanalyses, and compared the most recent decade with prior decades to determine whether warming at depth was faster in the past. We find little to no evidence for an increase of the rate of ocean warming at depth in the most recent decade. Our analysis suggests that a weaker external forcing trend might be a stronger key component than the interior exchange in the coupled feedback.

  12. NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Global warming and U.S. landfalling hurricanes.

    E-print Network

    NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Global warming and U.S. landfalling & Meteorological Laboratory 2004 2005 However, 2006 and 2007 are quiet years! Because of "An Inconvenient Truth Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Open Atlantic Ocean Differences 1933 Hurricane Season 2005 Hurricane

  13. Collective guilt for harming future ingroup members: The case of American identity and global warming

    E-print Network

    Ferguson, Mark Allen

    2008-08-20

    members on willingness to engage in behaviors that mitigate global warming. An experimental study extended these results by showing similar effects for actual behavior and pro-environmental attitudes. A final experiment extended the other studies...

  14. Global warming, energy efficiency and the role of the built environment

    E-print Network

    DiBona, Donna K

    2008-01-01

    This thesis attempts to explore the relationships between the Buildings Sector, energy efficiency and global warming. Through a qualitative analysis the author illustrates the connection between these three areas and shows ...

  15. Changes in atmospheric eddy length with the seasonal cycle and global warming

    E-print Network

    Mooring, Todd A

    2011-01-01

    A recent article by Kidston et al. [8] demonstrates that the length of atmospheric eddies increases in simulations of future global warming. This thesis expands on Kidston et al.'s work with additional studies of eddy ...

  16. http://www.yfes.tn.edu.tw/environment/main1.htm Global warming

    E-print Network

    Chen, Yang-Yuan

    ; : #12; Global warming Stratospheric ozone depletion Acid deposition Deforestation Desertification Ocean.6~0.7°C 2001 (IPCC) 2100 19901.4~5.8°C9~88 The amount of energy humans use annually: 4.6 x 1020

  17. American exceptionalism? Similarities and differences in national attitudes toward energy policy and global warming

    SciTech Connect

    D.M. Reiner; T.E. Curry; M.A. de Figueiredo; H.J. Herzog; S.D. Ansolabehere; K. Itaoka; F. Johnsson; M. Odenberger

    2006-04-01

    Despite sharp differences in government policy, the views of the U.S. public on energy and global warming are remarkably similar to those in Sweden, Britain, and Japan. Americans do exhibit some differences, placing lower priority on the environment and global warming, and with fewer believing that 'global warming has been established as a serious problem and immediate action is necessary'. There also remains a small hard core of skeptics (<10%) who do not believe in the science of climate change and the need for action, a group that is much smaller in the other countries surveyed. The similarities are, however, pervasive. Similar preferences are manifest across a wide range of technology and fuel choices, in support of renewables, in research priorities, in a basic understanding of which technologies produce or reduce carbon dioxide (or misunderstandings in the case of nuclear power), and in willingness to pay for solving global warming. 29 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  18. ATM S 111: Global Warming Review Sheet for Final Exam

    E-print Network

    Frierson, Dargan

    in soil & improves soil quality o Method 2: "Solar radiation management": reducing solar radiation to balance greenhouse warming § Goal would be to balance: relatively cheap, main problem is intermittency § Solar power: low maintenance & long

  19. Transient Floral Change and Rapid Global Warming at the

    E-print Network

    Lyons, S. Kathleen

    in the event and increased later. Floral response to warming and/or increased atmospheric CO2 during the PETM range and species com- position of marine plankton (11, 12), and shifts in the taxonomic and trophic

  20. Optimal Detection of Global Warming using Temperature Profiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leroy, Stephen S.

    1997-01-01

    Optimal fingerprinting is applied to estimate the amount of time it would take to detect warming by increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in monthly averages of temperature profiles over the Indian Ocean.

  1. Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

    2014-04-01

    Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. PMID:24372690

  2. The interplay between knowledge, perceived efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change: a one-year longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Milfont, Taciano L

    2012-06-01

    If the long-term goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C is to be achieved, rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required. These reductions will demand political leadership and widespread public support for action on global warming and climate change. Public knowledge, level of concern, and perceived personal efficacy, in positively affecting these issues are key variables in understanding public support for mitigation action. Previous research has documented some contradictory associations between knowledge, personal efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about temporal stability and direction of influence. This study examines the relationships between these three variables over a one-year period and three waves with national data from New Zealand. Results showed a positive association between the variables, and the pattern of findings was stable and consistent across the three data points. More importantly, results indicate that concern mediates the influence of knowledge on personal efficacy. Knowing more about global warming and climate change increases overall concern about the risks of these issues, and this increased concern leads to greater perceived efficacy and responsibility to help solving them. Implications for risk communication are discussed. PMID:22489642

  3. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

    PubMed Central

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-01-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

  4. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-11-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

  5. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

    PubMed

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-01-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

  6. The Response of A Coupled Climate Model To Transient Fluxes From A Global Warming Experiment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eby, M.; Gregory, J. M.; Saenko, O. A.; Schmittner, A.; Weaver, A. J.

    The response of the UVic Earth System Climate Model to forcing from a global warm- ing run is investigated. Four additional transient experiments were performed to look at the relative contribution of fresh water and heat fluxes. The experiments consisted of prescribing freshwater fluxes, either above or below the sea ice, from a transient global warming run to a present day simulation and the present day fluxes to a tran- sient global warming run. These experiments show that the reduction in North Atlantic overturning with global warming is dominated by changes in heat flux in this model. Fresh water fluxes account for about one quarter of the reduction. It is also found that the increased flux of fresh water from the atmosphere to the North Atlantic in a global warming run is enough to make the overturning collapse in a present day simulation. In a similar present day experiment, it is found that the redistribution of fresh wa- ter flux from exported sea ice in the global warming climate actually increases the overturning, even with the increased atmospheric fresh water flux. These experiments demonstrate that the distribution of both heat and fresh water near the deep water for- mation regions is critical in how the thermohaline circulation responds. They show that the treatment of both convection and sea ice are important and demonstrate po- tential difficulties in trying to look at the separate responses of a nonlinear system to fluxes which are in places highly corelated.

  7. Response of Vegetation in Northern China to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, H.; Huang, R.

    2009-05-01

    During the last 30 years, the warmth index (WI) (Kira, 1945) has increased by 10 to 20 points in northern China and the humid index (HI) (Xu,1985) correspondingly decreased by 1 to 2 points. Accordingly, the green leaf stage of plants and herbs around Beijing prolonged from late Nov. to mid-Dec. The phenophase has also been changed, e.g., the most enjoyable period of red leaves such as common smoketree (Cotinus coggygria) and maple (Acer mono and A.truncatum) has postponed for 10 days and the blooming period of flowering plants has also advanced for the same span. Some plants, e.g. japanese pagodatree (Sophora japonica) and hispid locust (Robinia hispida) even blossom again in fall. Some evergreen and thermophilic plants have also been planted to further north. Rice (Oryza sativa) have extended to around 49 degree N and, as an extreme case, to 52 degree N (Huma County, Heilongjiang Province), and tea (Camellia sinensis) from around 35 to 36.5 degree N. River basins of Songhuajiang and Nenjiang in Heilongjiang Province become important rice production bases. Rizhao and Qingdao in Shandong province become famous tea production bases. Before 1970s, evergreen broadleaf woody plants were rarely cultivated in Beijing. But now such plants as privet (Lygustrum lucidum), magnolia (Magnolia grandiflora), evergreen euonymus (Euonymus japonicus), and boxwood (Buxus sinica var. margaritacea) all live there through the winter. Many thermophilic garden plants, such as fig (Ficus carica), Chinese tulip tree (Liliodendron chinense), Chinese photinia (Photinia serrulata), crape myrtle (Lagerstroemia indica), and plum blossom (Prunus mume) are also successively cultivated outdoors in Beijing. Common papermulberry (Broussonetia papirifera) gradually increases and even becomes subdominant species of deciduous forest during last 30 years in the piedmont around Beijing. The cultivation boundary of some thermophilic trees, e.g., Chinese catalpa (Catalpa ovata), japanese pagodatree (Sophora japonica), tree of heaven (Ailanthus altissima), yellow locust (Robinia pseudoacacia), staghorn sumac (Rhus typhina), and gingko (Ginkgo biloba) have also been pushing northward to Huhhot, (41 degree N)Chifeng (42 degree N) and Tongliao (43 degree N), Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Alpine timberline has also been moved to higher altitude in Wutai Mt., Shanxi Province and Changbaishan Mt., Jilin Province. Although global warming seems to benefit agriculture in some cases, considering the decrease of wetness, the perspective is still uncertain. Drought and frost hazard are stress factors for the vegetation introduced to the northern areas. Chinese scholars are carefully watching the trend.

  8. Long-range Memory in Earth's Global Temperature and its Implications for Future Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rypdal, K.; Oestvand, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Earth's climate is a driven complex system which responds to a variable radiative forcing on a vast range of time scales. The contribution explores the hypothesis that the temporal global temperature response can be modeled as a long-range memory (LRM) stochastic process characterized by a Hurst exponent 0.5global (H=1.0) records and that LRM is highest in records strongly influenced by the ocean. The increasing trend through the last century cannot be explained as an unforced LRM fluctuation, but the observed 60-yr oscillation can. Analysis of a northern-hemisphere reconstruction for the last two millennia confirms LRM scaling up to at least 250 yr. If this record reconstructs the milennium-scale temperatures correctly there is a significant temperature difference between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age which cannot be explained as an inherent LRM fluctuation. We systematically investigate biases and uncertainties of a number of analysis methods, and conclude that for these record lengths it has no meaning to give Hurst exponents with more than one decimal. We also address the serious implications of such memory effects on future global warming due to the stronger disturbance of the Earth's energy balance under sustained forcing.

  9. Coastal-zone biogeochemical dynamics under global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Mackenzie, F.T.; Ver, L.M.; Lerman, A.

    2000-03-01

    The coastal zone, consisting of the continental shelves to a depth of 200 meters, including bays, lagoons, estuaries, and near-shore banks, is an environment that is strongly affected by its biogeochemical and physical interactions with reservoirs in the adjacent domains of land, atmosphere, open ocean, and marine sediments. Because the coastal zone is smaller in volume and area coverage relative to the open ocean, it traditionally has been studied as an integral part of the global oceans. In this paper, the authors show by numerical modeling that it is important to consider the coastal zone as an entity separate from the open ocean in any assessment of future Earth-system response under human perturbation. Model analyses for the early part of the 21st century suggest that the coastal zone plays a significant modifying role in the biogeochemical dynamics of the carbon cycle and the nutrient cycles coupled to it. This role is manifested in changes in primary production, storage, and/or export of organic matter, its remineralization, and calcium carbonate precipitation--all of which determine the state of the coastal zone with respect to exchange of CO{sub 2} with the atmosphere. Under a scenario of future reduced or complete cessation of the thermohaline circulation (THC) of the global oceans, coastal waters become an important sink for atmospheric CO{sub 2}, as opposed to the conditions in the past and present, when coastal waters are believed to be a source of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere. Profound changes in coastal-zone primary productivity underscore the important role of phosphorus as a limiting nutrient. In addition, calculations indicate that the saturation state of coastal waters with respect to carbonate minerals will decline by {approximately}15% by the year 2030. Any future slowdown in the THC of the oceans will increase slightly the rate of decline in saturation state.

  10. Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate: a multi-model analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Drange, Helge

    2015-09-01

    Instrumental temperature records show that the global climate may experience decadal-scale periods without warming despite a long-term warming trend. We analysed 17 global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), identifying the likelihood and duration of periods without warming in the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, together with the preindustrial control and historical simulations. We find that non-warming periods may last 10, 15 and 30 years for RCP8.5, RCP6.0 and RCP4.5, respectively. In the models, anomalous ocean heat uptake and storage are the main factors explaining the decadal-scale surface temperature hiatus periods. The low-latitude East Pacific Ocean is a key region for these variations, acting in tandem with basin-scale anomalies in the sea level pressure. During anomalously cold decades, roughly 35-50 % of the heat anomalies in the upper 700 m of the ocean are located in the Pacific Ocean, and 25 % in the Atlantic Ocean. Decadal-scale ocean heat anomalies, integrated over the upper 700 m, have a magnitude of about 7.5 × 1021 J. This is comparable to the ocean heat uptake needed to maintain a 10 year period without increasing surface temperature under global warming. On sub-decadal time scales the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans all have the ability to store large amounts of heat, contributing to variations in global surface temperature. The likelihood of decadal-scale non-warming periods decrease with global warming, firstly at the low latitude region stretching eastward from the tropical Atlantic towards the western Pacific. The North Atlantic and Southern Oceans have largest likelihood of non-warming decades in a warming world.

  11. Modelling the impact of global warming on nutrient and water-stressed grass-white clover swards

    SciTech Connect

    Topp, C.F.E.; Doyle, C.J.

    1996-12-31

    Global warming and the associated increases in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide are expected to affect directly the growing season and the potential production of grassland. Within the UK, under present climatic conditions, white clover growth in Spring is poor and the yield is inconsistent. Outlined in the paper are the underlying assumptions of a mechanistic model of a grass-white clover sward, that is capable of responding to changes in temperature, rainfall, radiation, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the associated interactions with soil type. Using the model, the anticipated effects on sward production under global warming of increases in average daily temperatures and carbon dioxide levels, together with the changes in rainfall, have been estimated.

  12. Does Globalization Affect Human Well-Being?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsai, Ming-Chang

    2007-01-01

    The prevailing theorizing of globalization's influence of human well-being suggests to assess both the favorable and unfavorable outcomes. This study formulates a dialectical model, adopts a comprehensive globalization measure and uses a three-wave panel data during 1980-2000 to empirically test direct and indirect effects of global flows' human…

  13. Impact of global warming on the Antarctic mass balance and global sea level

    SciTech Connect

    Budd, W.F.; Simmonds, I.

    1992-03-01

    The onset of global warming from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can have a number of important different impacts on the Antarctic ice sheet. These include increasing basal melt of ice shelves, faster flow of the grounded ice, increased surface ablation in coastal regions, and increased precipitation over the interior. An analysis of these separate terms by ice sheet modeling indicates that the impact of increasing ice sheet flow rates on sea level does not become a dominant factor until 100--200 years after the realization of the warming. For the time period of the next 100 years the most important impact on sea level from the Antarctic mass balance can be expected to result from increasing precipitation minus evaporation balance over the grounded ice. The present Antarctic net accumulation and coastal ice flux each amount to about 2000 km3 yr-1, both of which on their own would equate to approximately 6 mm yr-1 of sea level change. The present rate of sea level rise of about 1.2 mm yr-1 is therefore equivalent to about 20% imbalance in the Antarctic mass fluxes. The magnitude of the changes to the Antarctic precipitation and evaporation have been studied by a series of General Circulation Model experiments, using a model which gives a reasonable simulation of the present Antarctic climate, including precipitation and evaporation.

  14. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  15. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-08-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  16. ORIGINAL PAPER Modeling the impacts of global warming on predation

    E-print Network

    on both humans and wildlife. Keywords Biotic resistance . Climate change . Elevation . Predation (749-1952 m elevation) and assess the effect of 1°C and 2°C climate warming scenarios as well as the effects of El Niño and La Niña oscillations, on predator­prey dynamics. Our results indicate

  17. Role of the ocean mixed layer processes in the response of the North Pacific winter SST and MLD to global warming

    E-print Network

    Noh, Yign

    to global warming in CGCMs Bo Young Yim · Yign Noh · Sang-Wook Yeh Received: 8 October 2010 / Accepted: 7 of the CGCM data reveals that the increase of SST and the decrease of MLD in response to global warming tend of OHT and SHF under global warming, which may weaken the response to global warming in the CGCM

  18. Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

    2008-01-01

    Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An analysis of meat, egg, and milk production encompasses not only the direct rearing and slaughtering of animals, but also grain and fertilizer production for animal feed, waste storage and disposal, water use, and energy expenditures on farms and in transporting feed and finished animal products, among other key impacts of the production process as a whole. Conclusions Immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns are both critical and timely if GHGs from the farm animal sector are to be mitigated. PMID:18470284

  19. Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

    PubMed

    Beuhler, M

    2003-01-01

    Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning. PMID:12793676

  20. Pupils teach to pupils about genetics or global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuny, Delphine

    2013-04-01

    The idea of this project is to put pupils in a teaching situation. Classes of teenagers go to primary schools and animate a science workshop. Junior pupils are separated in small groups and they attend two different sessions in the same half-day. The whole workshop consists of 4 sessions. Each session is organized with an activity (microscope observation, counting of chromosomes, drawing of a curve, etc.) in which senior pupils coach the younger, and ends with a debate or an assessment. The first experiment of this type of project was realized with a class of 14 to 15 year old pupils on the theme: How do your parents transmit your characteristics? The four sessions are attended in disorder but when knowledge of other sessions are necessary, senior pupils explain them at the beginning of the session. Junior pupils have a notebook to write their activities and to note their conclusions. Session 1: What did my father give to make me? Drawing and measuring microscopic observations of human spermatozoons. Conclusion: my father gave a spermatozoon which measures less than one mm long, this spermatozoon met my mother's egg and it made my first cell. Session 2: What does the program that made me look like? Microscope observation of blood cells, identification of chromosomes in the core. On microscope pictures, counting of chromosomes. Conclusion: My program is in each cell of my body, inside the core. Sometimes, in this core, we can observe short sticks that are called chromosomes. All human beings have the same number of chromosomes in their cells: 46. Session 3: Where do my chromosomes come from? Counting of chromosomes in spermatozoons or ovums and playing with sets of chromosomes to deduct sex of a baby. Conclusion: Daddy gave me 23 chromosomes and mummy gave me 23 chromosomes too. My program is then constituted from half of daddy's program and half of mummy's program. My brothers and sisters also have half and half, but not the same halves! Session 4: Where is the program that made me situated? Virtual experiments on the first cell of rats (core transfers) Conclusion: The program that made that a rat is itself is situated in the core of its first cell. It is called a genetic program. Second experiment of this type of project is realized with a class of 16-17 year old pupils, on global warming for 8 to 11 year old pupils from the neighbor school. The older pupils use a teaching set created by "la main à la pâte" foundation, the set is called "le climat, ma planète et moi" (the climate, my planet and me, http://www.fondation-lamap.org/fr/climat). This project is to take place in March 2013.

  1. Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming

    E-print Network

    François, Olivier

    Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase

  2. THE OXIDATION OF ORGANIC COMPOUNDS IN THE TROPOSPHERE AND THEIR GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS

    E-print Network

    Stevenson, David

    pulses of 10 organic compounds were followed in a global 3-D Lagrangian chemistry-transport modelTHE OXIDATION OF ORGANIC COMPOUNDS IN THE TROPOSPHERE AND THEIR GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS W. J by hydroxyl radicals is the main removal process for organic compounds in the troposphere. This oxidation acts

  3. Tracking Earth's Energy: From El Nin~o to Global Warming

    E-print Network

    Trenberth, Kevin Edward

    the climate system to enable this to happen on a global basis. Incoming radiant energy may be scattered absorbed or reflected at the Earth's surface. Radiant solar (shortwave) energy is transformed into sensibleTracking Earth's Energy: From El Nin~o to Global Warming Kevin E. Trenberth · John T. Fasullo

  4. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING General Provision Pt. 98, Subpt. A, Table A-1 Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global...

  5. Processes limiting the emergence of detectable aerosol indirect effects on tropical warm clouds in global

    E-print Network

    Peters, Karsten

    Processes limiting the emergence of detectable aerosol indirect effects on tropical warm clouds in global aerosol-climate model and satellite data By KARSTEN PETERS1, 2 *, JOHANNES QUAAS3 , PHILIP STIER4 data from simulations performed with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM to test

  6. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

  7. June 1998 GPS WORLD 33 Global warming and greenhouse gases are

    E-print Network

    Businger, Steven

    June 1998 GPS WORLD 33 Global warming and greenhouse gases are familiar terms of late, spurred by an interna- tional sense of urgency to comprehend the effect of human activity on the earth's cli- mate in the atmosphere play in the dynamic global climate system is little under- stood yet represents an important

  8. Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Li-Guang; Wang, Bin

    2003-01-01

    A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the current climate state.

  9. Global warming: A geothermal evidence from northern Finland

    SciTech Connect

    Bodri, L.

    1996-12-31

    The greatest potential climatic changes induced by an increasing greenhouse effect are expected to occur in the high latitudes. Due to the great natural climatic variability in such areas, it is difficult to detect the greenhouse signal from meteorologic records. A reliable documentation of climate changes requires the examining of all available climatic records. In present study, temperature-depth profiles from two Finnish boreholes from over the Arctic circle have been considered to reconstruct ground surface temperature histories. The holes have been carefully selected to exclude any possible disturbances from underground water circulation, and to minimize the human effects as completely as possible. Both boreholes indicate continuous warming by {approximately}1--1.5 K through the last hundred years. The rate of warming increases from about the 1960`s. The results are in good agreement with those obtained for the Alaskan Arctic in a similar study by Lachenbruch and Marshall.

  10. Evidences of global warming for various regions of Russia

    SciTech Connect

    Batyreva, O.V.; Pischehko, V.A.; Vilfand, R.M.; Vasiliev, A.A.

    1997-12-31

    The automatical classification of mean monthly temperature fields of Russia was carried out. The data of 42 years in regular grid-points 5 x 10{degree} of Northern Hemisphere were used. The combination of land`s algorithm of K-averages was applied. The increasing of prevailing occurrence of warm types during last decades was discovered. It turned out that different regions had different dynamics of type occurrences.

  11. Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

    PubMed Central

    Nabi, SA; Qader, SS

    2009-01-01

    The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world. This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards. PMID:21483497

  12. Global warming and end-use efficiency implications of replacing CFCs

    SciTech Connect

    Fairchild, P.D.; Fischer, S.K.

    1991-12-31

    The direct contribution of CFCs to calculated global warming has been recognized for some time. As a result of the international agreement to phase out CFCs due to stratospheric ozone and the ensuing search for suitable alternatives, there has recently been increased attention on the DIRECT global warming potential (GWP) of the fluorocarbon alternatives as greenhouse gases. However, to date there has been little focus on the INDIRECT global warming effect arising from end-use efficiency changes and associated CO{sub 2} emissions. A study being conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) addresses this combined or total global warming impact of viable options to replace CFCs in their major energy-related applications. This paper reviews selected results for air-conditioning, refrigeration, and heat pump applications. The analysis indicates that the CFC user industries have made substantial progress in approaching near-equal energy efficiency with the HCFC/HFC alternative refrigerants. The findings also bring into question the relative importance of the DIRECT (chemical-related) effect in many applications. Replacing CFCs is an important step in reducing the total global warming impact, and at present the HCFC and HFCS appear to offer the best efficiency and lowest total impact of options available in the relatively short time period required for the transition away from CFCs.

  13. The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

    PubMed

    Diaz, James H

    2007-01-01

    With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures. PMID:18268873

  14. Relative effects on global warming of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fisher, Donald A.; Hales, Charles H.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, N. Dak

    1990-01-01

    The relative potential global warming effects for several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a; carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) were calculated by two atmospheric modeling groups. These calculations were based on atmospheric chemistry and radiative convective models to determine the chemical profiles and the radiative processes. The resulting relative greenhouse warming when normalized to the effect of CFC-11 agree reasonably well as long as we account for differences between modeled lifetimes. Differences among results are discussed. Sensitivity of relative warming values is determined with respect to trace gas levels assumed. Transient relative global warming effects are analyzed.

  15. Tropical Cyclone Changes in the Western North Pacific in a Global Warming Scenario MARKUS STOWASSER, YUQING WANG, AND KEVIN HAMILTON

    E-print Network

    Wang, Yuqing

    Tropical Cyclone Changes in the Western North Pacific in a Global Warming Scenario MARKUS STOWASSER The influence of global warming on the climatology of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin Model version 2 (CCSM2) coupled global climate model. The regional model is first tested in 10 yr

  16. The dynamics of the Earth's climate and the global-warming debate are complex, to say the least. NJIT

    E-print Network

    Haimovich, Alexander

    The dynamics of the Earth's climate and the global- warming debate are complex, to say the least with significant implications for further study of global warming. Weinstein: What led you to study the Earth years. We've also applied to the Keck Foundation for money to build a global network of eight automated

  17. The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions

    E-print Network

    Fisher, Anthony C.

    The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing- nomic Research and the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation at the University of California A relationship between global warming and increased concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO

  18. The response of flowering time to global warming in a high-altitude plant: the impact of genetics and the environment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change as a result of global warming may seriously affect plant reproduction. This is especially true for alpine plant species because they have few suitable alternative habitats to colonize. It is therefore important to determine the ability of high altitude plants to adapt to environmental...

  19. A possible relationship between Global Warming and Lightning Activity in India during the period 1998-2009

    E-print Network

    Felix Pereira B.; Priyadarsini G.; T. E. Girish

    2010-12-15

    Lightning activity on a global scale has been studied season wise using satellite data for the period from 1998 to 2009. Lightning activity shows an increasing trend during the period of study which is highly correlated with atmospheric warming. A similar increasing trend of lightning activity is observed in the Indian region during the pre-monsoon season which is correlated with global lightning trends and warming trends of surface temperature in India. Key words: Global warming, lightning activity, Solar cycle changes

  20. Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars.

    PubMed

    Fenton, Lori K; Geissler, Paul E; Haberle, Robert M

    2007-04-01

    For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by approximately 0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies. PMID:17410170

  1. Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fenton, L.K.; Geissler, P.E.; Haberle, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by ???0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.

  2. The stability of the thermohaline circulation in global warming experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Schmittner, A.; Stocker, T.F.

    1999-04-01

    A simplified climate model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is used to perform extensive sensitivity studies concerning possible future climate change induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Supplemented with an active atmospheric hydrological cycle, experiments with different rates of CO{sub 2} increase and different climate sensitivities are performed. The model exhibits a threshold value of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration beyond which the North Atlantic Deep Water formation stops and never recovers. For a climate sensitivity that leads to an equilibrium warming of 3.6 C for a doubling of CO{sub 2} and a rate of CO{sub 2} increase of 1% yr{sup {minus}1}, the threshold lies between 650 and 700 ppmv. Moreover, it is shown that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the rate of increase of greenhouse gases. For a slower increase of atmospheric pCO{sub 2} the final amount that can be reached without a shutdown of the circulation is considerably higher. This rate-sensitive response is due to the uptake of heat and excess freshwater from the uppermost layers to the deep ocean. The increased equator-to-pole freshwater transport in a warmer atmosphere is mainly responsible for the cessation of deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Another consequence of the enhanced latent heat transport is a stronger warming at high latitudes. A model version with fixed water vapor transport exhibits uniform warming at all latitudes. The inclusion of a simple parameterization of the ice-albedo feedback increases the model sensitivity and further decreases the pole-to-equator temperature difference in a greenhouse climate. The possible range of CO{sub 2} threshold concentrations and its dependency on the rate of CO{sub 2} increase, on the climate sensitivity, and on other model parameters are discussed.

  3. An Inconvenient Truth. The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It

    SciTech Connect

    Gore, Al

    2006-06-15

    This book is published to tie in with a documentary film of the same name. Both the book and film were inspired by a series of multimedia presentations on global warming that the author created and delivers to groups around the world. With this book, Gore, brings together leading-edge research from top scientists around the world; photographs, charts, and other illustrations; and personal anecdotes and observations to document the fast pace and wide scope of global warming. He presents, with alarming clarity and conclusiveness, and with humor, too, that the fact of global warming is not in question and that its consequences for the world we live in will be disastrous if left unchecked.

  4. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

    PubMed

    Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2013-09-19

    Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase. PMID:23995690

  5. The recent global warming hiatus: What is the role of Pacific variability?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douville, H.; Voldoire, A.; Geoffroy, O.

    2015-02-01

    The observed global mean surface air temperature (GMST) has not risen over the last 15 years, spurring outbreaks of skepticism regarding the nature of global warming and challenging the upper range transient response of the current-generation global climate models. Recent numerical studies have, however, tempered the relevance of the observed pause in global warming by highlighting the key role of tropical Pacific internal variability. Here we first show that many climate models overestimate the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on GMST, thereby shedding doubt on their ability to capture the tropical Pacific contribution to the hiatus. Moreover, we highlight that model results can be quite sensitive to the experimental design. We argue that overriding the surface wind stress is more suitable than nudging the sea surface temperature for controlling the tropical Pacific ocean heat uptake and, thereby, the multidecadal variability of GMST. Using the former technique, our model captures several aspects of the recent climate evolution, including the weaker slowdown of global warming over land and the transition toward a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Yet the observed global warming is still overestimated not only over the recent 1998-2012 hiatus period but also over former decades, thereby suggesting that the model might be too sensitive to the prescribed radiative forcings.

  6. The recent global-warming hiatus: What is the role of the Pacific variability?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douville, Hervé; Voldoire, Aurore

    2015-04-01

    The observed global mean surface air temperature (GMST) has not risen over the last 15 years, spurring outbreaks of skepticism regarding the nature of global warming and challenging the upper-range transient response of the current-generation global climate models. Recent numerical studies have however tempered the relevance of the observed pause in global warming by highlighting the key role of the tropical Pacific internal variability. Here we first show that many climate models overestimate the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on GMST, thereby shedding doubt on their ability to capture the tropical Pacific contribution to the hiatus. Moreover, we highlight that model results are quite sensitive to the experimental design. We argue that overriding the surface wind stress is more suitable than nudging the sea surface temperature for controlling the tropical Pacific ocean heat uptake and, thereby, the multi-decadal variability of GMST. Using the former technique, our model captures several aspects of the recent climate evolution, including the weaker slowdown of global warming over land and the transition towards a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Yet, the recent global warming is still overestimated, not only over the recent 1998-2012 hiatus period but also over former decades, thereby suggesting that the model might be too sensitive to the prescribed radiative forcings.

  7. Hypoxia, global warming, and terrestrial late Permian extinctions.

    PubMed

    Huey, Raymond B; Ward, Peter D

    2005-04-15

    A catastrophic extinction occurred at the end of the Permian Period. However, baseline extinction rates appear to have been elevated even before the final catastrophe, suggesting sustained environmental degradation. For terrestrial vertebrates during the Late Permian, the combination of a drop in atmospheric oxygen plus climate warming would have induced hypoxic stress and consequently compressed altitudinal ranges to near sea level. Our simulations suggest that the magnitude of altitudinal compression would have forced extinctions by reducing habitat diversity, fragmenting and isolating populations, and inducing a species-area effect. It also might have delayed ecosystem recovery after the mass extinction. PMID:15831755

  8. Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    White, Warren B.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

  9. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-01-01

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599

  10. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-10-01

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

  11. CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

    PubMed

    Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

    2015-06-26

    Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. PMID:26044301

  12. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karl, Thomas R.; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H.; McMahon, James R.; Menne, Matthew J.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Vose, Russell S.; Zhang, Huai-Min

    2015-06-01

    Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming “hiatus.” Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a “slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature.

  13. On the subarctic North Atlantic cooling due to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hyerim; An, Soon-Il

    2013-10-01

    Various ocean reanalysis data reveal that the subarctic Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) has been cooling during the twentieth century. A similar cooling pattern is found in the doubling CO2 experiment obtained from the CMIP3 (coupled model intercomparison project third phase) compared to the pre-industrial experiment. Here, in order to investigate the main driver of this cooling, we perform the heat budget analysis on the subarctic Atlantic upper ocean temperature. The net surface heat flux associated with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases heats the subarctic ocean surface. In the most of models, the longwave radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux exert a warming effect, and the shortwave radiation exerts a cooling effect. On the other hand, the thermal advection by the meridional current reduces the subarctic upper ocean temperature in all models. This cold advection is attributed to the weakening of the meridional overturning circulation, which is related to the reduction in the ocean surface density. In particular, greater warming of the surface air than of the sea surface results in the reduction of surface evaporation and thereby enhanced freshening of the ocean surface water, while precipitation change was smaller than evaporation change. The thermal advections by both the wind-driven Ekman current and the density-driven geostrophic current contribute to cooling in most of the models, where the heat transport by the geostrophic current tends to be larger than that by the Ekman current.

  14. Global warming: A geothermal evidence from northern Finland

    SciTech Connect

    Bodri, L. |

    1996-03-01

    The greatest potential climatic changes induced by an increasing greenhouse effect are expected to occur in the high latitudes. Due to the great natural climatic variability in such areas, it is difficult to detect the greenhouse signal from meteorologic records. A reliable documentation of climate changes requires the examining of all available climatic records. Data from temperature measurements in drillholes are robust indicators of the temperature variations associated with past climate change. Geothermal heat escaping through the earth`s surface has established a nearly linear temperature gradient in the earth`s upper crust. Since this gradient depends on the boundary conditions, any change in temperature of the earth`s surface will propagate slowly downward as a perturbation in the temperature profile. Such perturbations can be recovered from the temperature logs in the form of changes in the ground surface temperature as a function of time. In the present study, temperature-depth profiles from two Finnish boreholes from near the Arctic circle have been considered to reconstruct ground surface temperature histories. The holes have been carefully selected to exclude any possible disturbances from underground water circulation, and to minimize human effects as completely as possible. Both boreholes indicate continuous warming by {approximately} 1--1.5 K through the last hundred years. The rate of warming increases from about the 1960`s.

  15. BioFacts: Fueling a stronger economy, Global warming and biofuels emissions

    SciTech Connect

    1994-12-01

    The focus of numerous federal and state regulations being proposed and approved today is the reduction of automobile emissions -- particularly carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), which is the greenhouse gas considered responsible for global warming. Studies conducted by the USDOE through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) indicate that the production and use of biofuels such as biodiesel, ethanol, and methanol could nearly eliminate the contribution of net CO{sub 2} from automobiles. This fact sheet provides and overview of global warming, followed by a summary of NREL`s study results.

  16. 135 years of global ocean warming between the Challenger expedition and the Argo Programme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roemmich, Dean; John Gould, W.; Gilson, John

    2012-06-01

    Changing temperature throughout the oceans is a key indicator of climate change. Since the 1960s about 90% of the excess heat added to the Earth's climate system has been stored in the oceans. The ocean's dominant role over the atmosphere, land, or cryosphere comes from its high heat capacity and ability to remove heat from the sea surface by currents and mixing. The longest interval over which instrumental records of subsurface global-scale temperature can be compared is the 135 years between the voyage of HMS Challenger (1872-1876) and the modern data set of the Argo Programme (2004-2010). Argo's unprecedented global coverage permits its comparison with any earlier measurements. This, the first global-scale comparison of Challenger and modern data, shows spatial mean warming at the surface of 0.59°C+/-0.12, consistent with previous estimates of globally averaged sea surface temperature increase. Below the surface the mean warming decreases to 0.39°C+/-0.18 at 366m (200fathoms) and 0.12°C+/-0.07 at 914m (500fathoms). The 0.33°C+/-0.14 average temperature difference from 0 to 700m is twice the value observed globally in that depth range over the past 50 years, implying a centennial timescale for the present rate of global warming. Warming in the Atlantic Ocean is stronger than in the Pacific. Systematic errors in the Challenger data mean that these temperature changes are a lower bound on the actual values. This study underlines the scientific significance of the Challenger expedition and the modern Argo Programme and indicates that globally the oceans have been warming at least since the late-nineteenth or early-twentieth century.

  17. What do global warming impacts really mean to U.S. industry?

    SciTech Connect

    Bendel, W.B.

    1994-12-31

    This paper will explore real-world impacts that global warming could have on US industry. The question of dealing with global warming is, to some extent, an exercise in probability or relative risk management. The difficult part is separating fact from fiction. There is another issue that arises in this intense debate regarding impacts on business and policy. This is the question of whether the impacts are real or only perceived. As the authors have been seen in several environmental situations, the difference between a real or perceived impact can be academic, since a perceived risk often produces real impacts. This paper presents a discussion on what companies can and should do to minimize the perceived risk of global warming on their bottom lines. That is, the basic question is, how can businesses today manage this risk so that objective business decisions can be made? Problems that could be directly or indirectly embedded in the global warming controversy are examined. These include financial, engineering, and international aspects of global climate change. This discussion will include possible impacts on the utility, agricultural, insurance, and financial industries.

  18. Global warming and the growth of ice sheets

    SciTech Connect

    Ledley, T.S.; Chu, S.

    1994-01-01

    Recent research has suggested that warmer conditions, that may result from increased levels of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere, may induce the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the impact of warmer temperature on the water carrying capacity of the atmosphere and thus on precipitation. In this study we examine this possibility using a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea ice model. Results indicate that if summer ice albedo is high enough, and there is some mechanism for initially maintaining ice through the summer season, then it may be possible to have ice sheet growth under the conditions of CO{sub 2} induced warming. 30 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

  19. Greenland Ice Sheet’s response to global warming (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffen, K.

    2009-12-01

    Air temperatures along the west coast on the Greenland ice sheet have increased by 2 deg. C per decade since 1991, with largest warming during the winter months. The ice sheet melt area increased by 20% since 1979, and the increase in bare ice area is unmistakable at 13% per year. Warm summers and extended melt seasons are to blame for 3.5 m surface lowering at the long-term equilibrium line altitude, (1100 m elevation at 70 deg. N) between 2000 and 2007. The precipitation does not show a clear trend and varies between 30 cm and 200 cm annual snow accumulation at the equilibrium line altitude along the western slope of the ice sheet, 1979-2008. Increase in ice velocity in the ablation region and the concurrent increase in melt water suggests that water penetrates to great depth through moulins and cracks, lubricating the bottom of the ice sheet. The mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet has been negative for the past decade and the ice loss seems to be accelerating in recent years. Some of the ice loss can be explained by increase in surface melting (40%), however, ocean-ice interaction and ice dynamics play a major role. Several glaciers located north of Jakobshavn Isbrea (70 N) have increased flow velocities and loosing considerable ice volume to the ocean. New insight was gained of subsurface hydrologic channels and cavities using new instrumentation and a video system during the melt peak in August 2006-2009. Volume and geometry of a 100 m deep moulin were mapped with a rotating laser, and photographs with digital cameras. Sub-glacial hydrologic channels were investigated and filmed using a tethered, autonomous system, several hundred meters into the ice. These new results will be discussed in view of the rapid increase in melt area and mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet due to increasing air temperatures.

  20. Global warming projections : sensitivity to deep ocean mixing

    E-print Network

    Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.

    The climatological impact of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, despite being a subject of intensive study in recent years, is still very uncertain. One major uncertainty affecting possible climate ...

  1. Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have about 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have about 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error. We find we can decrease the global temperature trend by about 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature which is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observations made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the errors on the global temperature trend. In one path the entire error is placed in the am data while in the other it is placed in the pm data. Global temperature trend is increased or decreased by about 0.03 K/decade depending upon this placement. Taking into account all random errors and systematic errors our analysis of MSU observations leads us to conclude that a conservative estimate of the global warming is 0. 11 (+-) 0.04 K/decade during 1980 to 1998.

  2. Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

    2000-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have approximately 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and. afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have approximately 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error eo. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error eo. We find eo can decrease the global temperature trend by approximately 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors ed and ec present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry. ed arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature and ec is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error ed can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observation made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error ec is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the error ec on the global temperature trend. In one path the entire error ec is placed in the am data while in the other it is placed in the pm data. Global temperature trend is increased or decreased by approximately 0.03 K/decade depending upon this placement. Taking into account all random errors and systematic errors our analysis of MSU observations leads us to conclude that a conservative estimate of the global warming is 0. 11 (+/-) 0.04 K/decade during 1980 to 1998.

  3. ATM S 111: Global Warming Review Sheet for Quiz #2

    E-print Network

    Frierson, Dargan

    chunks of ice on land · Greenland melting would cause 7 m of global sea is happening to the ice sheets? · Increased melt is occurring over Greenland and west ice has been melting extremely rapidly · End of summer ice extent is 30

  4. Global Warming: Is There Still Time to Avoid

    E-print Network

    Hansen, James E.

    Science Letters, 203, 829-843. #12;Ice Age Forcings Imply Global Climate Sensitivity ~ ¾°C per W/m2, noise. 4. Another "ice age" cannot occur unless humans become extinct. Even then, it would require ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern

  5. Global projections of changing risks of flood under the global warming simulated by MIROC GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

    2008-12-01

    Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (T106; about 1.1-degree) general circulation model (GCM) was used to investigate future projections of population changes under risks of more frequent flooding. A statistically significant increase or decrease in flood frequency was not predicted in the 20th century, and they are first appeared around the middle of the 21st century in 21 of 30 large global rivers. Statistics of world disasters indicated that the mean population impacted by flood disasters from 1991 to 2000 was 1.45 billion (2.5% of total population). The simulated global mean population which has affected by daily discharge higher than the 20C 100-year flood (defined using daily discharge from 1901 to 2000) was about 0.51 billion (0.9% of total population) for 1991-2000, while for 2091-2100 this increases to 6.96 billion (9.5% of total population). Minimum of flood-affected population after the middle of the 21st century becomes higher than the maximum of flood-affected population in the 20th century. Annual fluctuation of the recorded flood-affected population was higher than that estimated using the modeled 20C 100-year flood. It is therefore important to show ranges of the flood-affected population in the model simulation using a statistical method, taking into account years when floods are concentrated in high- populated regions and years when most floods occurred in low-populated regions. Statistical analysis using the Monte Carlo approach revealed that the population experiencing daily discharge higher than the 20C 100-year flood from 2091 to 2100 is in the top 35% of the ranges of possible number of populations (sum of population in regions that were randomly selected from global land of the same area as the regions with flood discharge), while that in 1991-2000 was below 30% of the probable population sets. This result indicates that future flood increases will be more common in regions with high population densities.

  6. Increasing Risk of Droughts and Floods in Taiwan: Aerosols or Global Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. We examine data from 15 Taiwan Central Weather Bureau stations in the period 1961-2011, as well as global data from the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project, V1.0, 1979-2007), to show that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes in the precipitation extremes. Significant increases of annual total dry days and >=7 consecutive dry days in Taiwan during 1961-2011 are shown to be a result of the decrease in light precipitation and increase in heavy precipitation, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher risk of floods and droughts. Similar links are expected over widespread regions of the globe.

  7. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    PubMed Central

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

  8. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-10-01

    Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.

  9. Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2

    PubMed

    Joos; Plattner; Stocker; Marchal; Schmittner

    1999-04-16

    A low-order physical-biogeochemical climate model was used to project atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming for scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation weakens in all global warming simulations and collapses at high levels of carbon dioxide. Projected changes in the marine carbon cycle have a modest impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Compared with the control, atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 4 percent at year 2100 and 20 percent at year 2500. The reduction in ocean carbon uptake can be mainly explained by sea surface warming. The projected changes of the marine biological cycle compensate the reduction in downward mixing of anthropogenic carbon, except when the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses. PMID:10205049

  10. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

  11. Urban amplification of the global warming in Moscow megacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kislov, Alexander; Konstantinov, Pavel; Varentsov, Mikhail; Samsonov, Timofey; Gorlach, Irina; Trusilova, Kristina

    2015-04-01

    Climate changes in the large cities are very important and requires better understanding. The focus of this paper is climate change of the Moscow megacity. Its urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer above the Moscow agglomeration area and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available meteorological observations within the Moscow urban area and surrounding territory allow us to assess the natural climate variations and human-induced climate warming separately. To obtain more precisely viewing on the UHI structure we have included into the analysis the satellite data (Meteosat-10), providing temperature and humidity profiles with high resolution. To investigate the mechanism of the urban amplification we realized the regional climate model COSMO-CLM+TEB. Apart from detailed climate research the model runs will be planned for climate projecting of Moscow agglomeration area. Climate change differences between urban and rural areas are determined by changes of the shape of the UHI and their relationships with changes of building height and density. Therefore, the urban module of COSMO-CLM+TEB model is fed by information from special GIS database contenting both geometric characteristics of the urban canyons and other characteristics of the urban surface. The sources of information were maps belonging to the OpenStreetMap, and digital elevation models SRTM90 and ASTER GDEM v.2 as well. The multiscale GIS database allows us to generate such kind of information with different spatial resolution (200, 500 and 1000 meters).

  12. Contrasting responses of Central Asian rock glaciers to global warming

    PubMed Central

    Sorg, Annina; Kääb, Andreas; Roesch, Andrea; Bigler, Christof; Stoffel, Markus

    2015-01-01

    While the responses of Tien Shan glaciers – and glaciers elsewhere – to climatic changes are becoming increasingly well understood, this is less the case for permafrost in general and for rock glaciers in particular. We use a novel approach to describe the climate sensitivity of rock glaciers and to reconstruct periods of high and low rock glacier activity in the Tien Shan since 1895. Using more than 1500 growth anomalies from 280 trees growing on rock glacier bodies, repeat aerial photography from Soviet archives and high-resolution satellite imagery, we present here the world's longest record of rock glacier movements. We also demonstrate that the rock glaciers exhibit synchronous periods of activity at decadal timescales. Despite the complex energy-balance processes on rock glaciers, periods of enhanced activity coincide with warm summers, and the annual mass balance of Tuyuksu glacier fluctuates asynchronously with rock glacier activity. At multi-decadal timescales, however, the investigated rock glaciers exhibit site-specific trends reflecting different stages of inactivation, seemingly in response to the strong increase in air temperature since the 1970s. PMID:25657095

  13. Contrasting responses of Central Asian rock glaciers to global warming.

    PubMed

    Sorg, Annina; Kääb, Andreas; Roesch, Andrea; Bigler, Christof; Stoffel, Markus

    2015-01-01

    While the responses of Tien Shan glaciers--and glaciers elsewhere--to climatic changes are becoming increasingly well understood, this is less the case for permafrost in general and for rock glaciers in particular. We use a novel approach to describe the climate sensitivity of rock glaciers and to reconstruct periods of high and low rock glacier activity in the Tien Shan since 1895. Using more than 1500 growth anomalies from 280 trees growing on rock glacier bodies, repeat aerial photography from Soviet archives and high-resolution satellite imagery, we present here the world's longest record of rock glacier movements. We also demonstrate that the rock glaciers exhibit synchronous periods of activity at decadal timescales. Despite the complex energy-balance processes on rock glaciers, periods of enhanced activity coincide with warm summers, and the annual mass balance of Tuyuksu glacier fluctuates asynchronously with rock glacier activity. At multi-decadal timescales, however, the investigated rock glaciers exhibit site-specific trends reflecting different stages of inactivation, seemingly in response to the strong increase in air temperature since the 1970s. PMID:25657095

  14. ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR REDUCING NET GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL IN IRRIGATED CROPPING SYSTEMS IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A cropping systems field study initiated in 1999 was used in this analysis to evaluate the economic feasibility of achieving reductions in net global warming potential through changes in cropping system management. Crop yield and management information collected from 2000-2005 were used to estimate ...

  15. Global Warming Potential of Long-Term Grazing Management Systems in the Northern Great Plains

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Grazing lands in the northern Great Plains of North America are extensive, occupying over 50 Mha. Yet grazing land contributions to, or mitigation of, global warming potential (GWP) is largely unknown for the region. The objective of this study was to estimate GWP for three long-term (70 to 90 yr)...

  16. Global warming increases flood risk in mountainous areas P. Allamano,1

    E-print Network

    Allamano, Paola

    et al., 2009; G. Blo¨schl and A. Montanari, Climate change impacts: Throwing the dice?, submitted by coupling high-resolution regional climate models with hydrologic models [Prudhomme et frequent than in the past and that they may become even more frequent under global warming. The morpho-climatic

  17. Impact of 19982002 midlatitude drought and warming on terrestrial ecosystem and the global carbon cycle

    E-print Network

    Zeng, Ning

    ENSO response. An atmospheric inversion reveals that during the 1998­2002 drought period, NorthernImpact of 1998­2002 midlatitude drought and warming on terrestrial ecosystem and the global carbon October 2005; accepted 25 October 2005; published 26 November 2005. [1] A rare drought occurred from 1998

  18. Fear Appeals and College Students' Attitudes and Behavioral Intentions toward Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Shu-Chu Sarrina

    2014-01-01

    This study used Witte's extended parallel process model to examine the relationships between the use of fear appeals and college students' attitudes and behavioral intentions toward global warming. A pretest-posttest quasi-experimental design was adopted. Three hundred forty-one college students from six communication courses at two…

  19. Students' Communication, Argumentation and Knowledge in a Citizens' Conference on Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Albe, Virginie; Gombert, Marie-Jose

    2012-01-01

    An empirical study on 12th-grade students' engagement on a global warming debate as a citizens' conference is reported. Within the design-based research methodology, an interdisciplinary teaching sequence integrating an initiation to non-violent communication was developed. Students' debates were analyzed according to three dimensions:…

  20. Omani Students' Views about Global Warming: Beliefs about Actions and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ambusaidi, Abdullah; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin; Taylor, Neil

    2012-01-01

    A 44-item questionnaire was designed to determine students' views about how useful various "specific" actions might be in helping to reduce global warming, their willingness to undertake these various actions and the extent to which these two might be related. The instrument was administered to students in Grades 6 to 12 (N = 1532) from 12 schools…

  1. Debating Global Warming in Media Discussion Forums: Strategies Enacted by "Persistent Deniers" and Implications for Schooling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowen, G. Michael; Rodger, Valerie

    2008-01-01

    Newspapers and other media are often used as a source of information on science issues, both by the public and teachers in classrooms. Over six months, we collected discussions of global warming issues from the online forums of a national newspaper. Our analysis of these contributions suggests there is a considerable effort in these forums,…

  2. A Collection of Studies Conducted in Education about "Global Warming" Problem

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bozdogan, Aykut Emre

    2011-01-01

    The studies global warming problem conducted in education discipline in the world and in Turkey were analysed for this study. The literature was reviewed extensively especially through the articles in the indexed journals of Ebsco Host, Science Direct, Taylor and Francis and Web of Science databases and this study was conducted according to the…

  3. The Teach-in on Global Warming Solutions and Vygotsky: Fostering Ecological Action and Environmental Citizenship

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lysack, Mishka

    2009-01-01

    The Teach-in on Global Warming Solutions is part of a larger socio-environmental movement concerned with combating climate change. Highlighting the history and elements of the teach-in as a model of learning, the article examines the teach-in movement, using a local event at the University of Calgary as an illustration. Conceptual resources from…

  4. Climate of Concern--A Search for Effective Strategies for Teaching Children about Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taber, Fiona; Taylor, Neil

    2009-01-01

    Recent research suggests that the issue of global warming is one of great concern for Australian children. This point to the need for effective teaching about this issue. Children should be properly informed about actions that help reduce carbon emissions as this may give them a sense of empowerment and go some way to alleviating concerns. This…

  5. Beliefs and Willingness to Act about Global Warming: Where to Focus Science Pedagogy?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Science educators have a key role in empowering students to take action to reduce global warming. This involves assisting students to understand its causes as well as taking pedagogical decisions that have optimal probabilities of leading to students being motivated to take actions based on empirically based science beliefs. To this end New South…

  6. Australian Secondary Students' Views about Global Warming: Beliefs about Actions, and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyes, Edward; Skamp, Keith; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    A 44-item questionnaire was constructed to determine secondary students' views about how useful various specific actions might be at reducing global warming, their willingness to undertake the various actions, and the extent to which these two might be linked. Responses (n = 500) were obtained from students in years 7 to 10 in three schools in…

  7. Harbingers and agents of global warming The rapid retreat of mountain glaciers makes them an

    E-print Network

    Berthier, Etienne

    of France (approx. 680,000 sq.km.), they are melting so fast that in the last 10 years they have contributedHarbingers and agents of global warming The rapid retreat of mountain glaciers makes them these glaci- ers--excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets-- covers barely more than the area

  8. A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments

    E-print Network

    Nowack, Peer J.; Abraham, N. Luke; Maycock, Amanda C.; Braesicke, Peter; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Joshi, Manoj M.; Osprey, Annette; Pyle, John A.

    2014-12-01

    -climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4xCO2 forcing...

  9. Consistent Changes in the Sea Ice Seasonal Cycle in Response to Global Warming IAN EISENMAN

    E-print Network

    Battisti, David

    (Solomon et al. 2007). GCM projections vary widely in terms of the rate of Arctic sea ice loss (Fig. 3aConsistent Changes in the Sea Ice Seasonal Cycle in Response to Global Warming IAN EISENMAN 16 March 2011) ABSTRACT The Northern Hemisphere sea ice cover has diminished rapidly in recent years

  10. Mass Media and Global Warming: A Public Arenas Model of the Greenhouse Effect's Scientific Roots.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neuzil, Mark

    1995-01-01

    Uses the Public Arenas model to examine the historical roots of the greenhouse effect issue as communicated in scientific literature from the early 1800s to modern times. Utilizes a constructivist approach to discuss several possible explanations for the rise and fall of global warming as a social problem in the scientific arena. (PA)

  11. Social Activism in Elementary Science Education: A Science, Technology, and Society Approach to Teach Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lester, Benjamin T.; Ma, Li; Lee, Okhee; Lambert, Julie

    2006-01-01

    As part of a large-scale instructional intervention research, this study examined elementary students' science knowledge and awareness of social activism with regard to an increased greenhouse effect and global warming. The study involved fifth-grade students from five elementary schools of varying demographic makeup in a large urban school…

  12. Earth's Energy Out of Balance: The Smoking Gun for Global Warming April, 2005

    E-print Network

    Hansen, James E.

    Earth's Energy Out of Balance: The Smoking Gun for Global Warming April, 2005 Scientists at Columbia University, NASA, and the Department of Energy have found that the Earth is out of energy balance: the Earth is absorbing more energy from sunlight than it is emitting back to space in the form of heat

  13. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING General Provision Pt. 98, Subpt. A, Table A-1...

  14. Increased Runoff from Melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet: A Response to Global Warming

    E-print Network

    Huybrechts, Philippe

    reflects general Northern Hemisphere and global warming. Summer 2003 was the warmest since at least 1958 rising runoff since 1958 was largely compensated by increased precipitation and snow accumulation. Also- tween these pioneering estimates. Satellite radar interferometry (InSAR) was used to observe

  15. WILLOW VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING p.6 MASTERING POTATO LATE BLIGHT p.34

    E-print Network

    24 36 WILLOW VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING p.6 MASTERING POTATO LATE BLIGHT p.34 TROPICAL PRAWNS FED. And did you know that willow crops have the potential to cool the Earth? We hope you enjoy reading New for bioeconomy This and that Malaria and mast cells 41 Short-rotation coppice willow crops have the potential

  16. A Vast Machine Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming

    E-print Network

    Edwards, Paul N.

    In the countless political controver- sies over climate change, the debate often shakes out into a contest: models such thing as a pure climate simulation. Yes, we get a lot of knowledge from simulation models. But this bookA Vast Machine Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming Paul N. Edwards

  17. Medical Providers as Global Warming and Climate Change Health Educators: A Health Literacy Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Villagran, Melinda; Weathers, Melinda; Keefe, Brian; Sparks, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to wildlife and the environment, but it also one of the most pervasive threats to human health. The goal of this study was to examine the relationships among dimensions of health literacy, patient education about global warming and climate change (GWCC), and health behaviors. Results reveal that patients who have higher…

  18. HYDROLOGIC SENSITIVITIES OF THE SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASIN, CA TO GLOBAL WARMING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The hydrologic sensitivities of four medium-sized mountainous catchments in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins to long-term global warming were analyzed. he hydrologic response of these catchments, all of which are dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, were simulated by t...

  19. Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. Corn Belt?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agriculture is both an anthropogenic source of CO2, CH4, and N2O, and a sink for CO2 and CH4. Management can impact agriculture's net global warming potential (GWP) by changing source and/or sink. This study compared GWP among three crop management systems: business as usual (BAU), optimum greenhous...

  20. Addressing Global Warming, Air Pollution Health Damage, and Long-Term Energy Needs Simultaneously

    E-print Network

    Patzek, Tadeusz W.

    Addressing Global Warming, Air Pollution Health Damage, and Long-Term Energy Needs Simultaneously that will reduce air pollution and address climate change. Data, computer model results, and new emission air-pollution-related deaths and millions of cases of asthma and respiratory disease each year

  1. Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meehan, Casey R.

    2012-01-01

    Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz…

  2. The Effects of Instruction with Visual Materials on the Development of Preservice Elementary Teachers' Knowledge and Attitude towards Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bozdogan, Aykut Emre

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed to identify the erroneous knowledge and misconceptions of preservice elementary teachers about global warming and examine the effects of instruction with visual materials on rectifying these misconceptions and fostering a positive attitude towards the issue of global warming. Having a quasi-experimental design, the study made use…

  3. PUBLISHED ONLINE: 29 JANUARY 2012 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1353 Enhanced warming over the global subtropical

    E-print Network

    Qiu, Bo

    surface ocean warming rate over the path of these currents is two to three times faster than the globalLETTERS PUBLISHED ONLINE: 29 JANUARY 2012 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1353 Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents Lixin Wu1 *, Wenju Cai2 , Liping Zhang1 , Hisashi Nakamura3

  4. Student Teachers' Conceptions about Global Warming and Changes in Their Conceptions during Pre-Service Education: A Cross Sectional Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cimer, Sabiha Odabasi; Cimer, Atilla; Ursavas, Nazihan

    2011-01-01

    Global warming is one of the important environmental problems whose dangerous effects are increasing gradually. The study reported herein aimed to reveal student teachers' conceptions about global warming and the effect of biology teacher education program on their awareness of this environmental issue. An open-ended questionnaire was used to…

  5. Indian Ocean Dipole Response to Global Warming: Analysis of OceanAtmospheric Feedbacks in a Coupled Model*

    E-print Network

    Xie, Shang-Ping

    Indian Ocean Dipole Response to Global Warming: Analysis of Ocean­Atmospheric Feedbacks-frequency modulation and change under global warming of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode are investigated with a pair equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) is important for the slow modulation, skewness, and ENSO correlation

  6. Wildfires may contribute more to global warming than previously predicted

    E-print Network

    and wildlife health, and interacting with sunlight to affect climate. But measurements taken during the 2011. "The fact that we are experiencing more fires and that climate change may increase fire frequency Particle analysis shows "tar ball" effect is significant LOS ALAMOS, N.M., July 9, 2013--Wildfires produce

  7. The effect of global warming on lightning frequencies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Colin; Rind, David

    1990-01-01

    The first attempt to model global lightning distributions by using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM is reported. Three sets of observations showing the relationship between lightning frequency and cloud top height are shown. Zonally averaged lightning frequency observed by satellite are compared with those calculated using the GISS GCM, and fair agreement is found. The change in lightning frequency for a double CO2 climate is calculated and found to be nearly 2.23 x 10 exp 6 extra lightning flashes per day.

  8. Global warming alters sound transmission: differential impact on the prey detection ability of echolocating bats

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Jinhong; Koselj, Klemen; Zseb?k, Sándor; Siemers, Björn M.; Goerlitz, Holger R.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change impacts the biogeography and phenology of plants and animals, yet the underlying mechanisms are little known. Here, we present a functional link between rising temperature and the prey detection ability of echolocating bats. The maximum distance for echo-based prey detection is physically determined by sound attenuation. Attenuation is more pronounced for high-frequency sound, such as echolocation, and is a nonlinear function of both call frequency and ambient temperature. Hence, the prey detection ability, and thus possibly the foraging efficiency, of echolocating bats and susceptible to rising temperatures through climate change. Using present-day climate data and projected temperature rises, we modelled this effect for the entire range of bat call frequencies and climate zones around the globe. We show that depending on call frequency, the prey detection volume of bats will either decrease or increase: species calling above a crossover frequency will lose and species emitting lower frequencies will gain prey detection volume, with crossover frequency and magnitude depending on the local climatic conditions. Within local species assemblages, this may cause a change in community composition. Global warming can thus directly affect the prey detection ability of individual bats and indirectly their interspecific interactions with competitors and prey. PMID:24335559

  9. Global warming favours light-coloured insects in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Zeuss, Dirk; Brandl, Roland; Brändle, Martin; Rahbek, Carsten; Brunzel, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Associations between biological traits of animals and climate are well documented by physiological and local-scale studies. However, whether an ecophysiological phenomenon can affect large-scale biogeographical patterns of insects is largely unknown. Insects absorb energy from the sun to become mobile, and their colouration varies depending on the prevailing climate where they live. Here we show, using data of 473 European butterfly and dragonfly species, that dark-coloured insect species are favoured in cooler climates and light-coloured species in warmer climates. By comparing distribution maps of dragonflies from 1988 and 2006, we provide support for a mechanistic link between climate, functional traits and species that affects geographical distributions even at continental scales. Our results constitute a foundation for better forecasting the effect of climate change on many insect groups. PMID:24866819

  10. SCIENTIFIC LINKAGES IN GLOBAL CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    In the atmosphere, certain trace gases both promote global warming and deplete the ozone layer. he primary radiatively active trace gases, those that affect global warming, are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and tropospheric ozone. n the troposphere,...

  11. Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST, suggesting a close coupling between surface temperature and SWV.

  12. Global warming releases microplastic legacy frozen in Arctic Sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obbard, Rachel W.; Sadri, Saeed; Wong, Ying Qi; Khitun, Alexandra A.; Baker, Ian; Thompson, Richard C.

    2014-06-01

    When sea ice forms it scavenges and concentrates particulates from the water column, which then become trapped until the ice melts. In recent years, melting has led to record lows in Arctic Sea ice extent, the most recent in September 2012. Global climate models, such as that of Gregory et al. (2002), suggest that the decline in Arctic Sea ice volume (3.4% per decade) will actually exceed the decline in sea ice extent, something that Laxon et al. (2013) have shown supported by satellite data. The extent to which melting ice could release anthropogenic particulates back to the open ocean has not yet been examined. Here we show that Arctic Sea ice from remote locations contains concentrations of microplastics at least two orders of magnitude greater than those that have been previously reported in highly contaminated surface waters, such as those of the Pacific Gyre. Our findings indicate that microplastics have accumulated far from population centers and that polar sea ice represents a major historic global sink of man-made particulates. The potential for substantial quantities of legacy microplastic contamination to be released to the ocean as the ice melts therefore needs to be evaluated, as do the physical and toxicological effects of plastics on marine life.

  13. Studies of dynamical processes affecting global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, C.; Cooper, D.; Eichinger, W.

    1998-12-31

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The main objective was, by a combined theoretical and observational approach, to develop improved models of dynamic processes in the oceans and atmosphere and to incorporate them into large climate codes, chiefly in four main areas: numerical physics, chemistry, water vapor, and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Main areas of investigation included studies of: cloud parameterizations for global climate codes, Lidar and the planetary boundary layer, chemistry, climate variability using coupled ocean-atmospheric models, and numerical physical methods. This project employed a unique approach that included participation of a number of University of California faculty, postdoctoral fellows and graduate students who collaborated with Los Alamos research staff on specific tasks, thus greatly enhancing the research output. Overall accomplishments during the sensing of the atmospheric planetary were: (1) first two- and three-dimensional remote sensing of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer using Lidars, (2) modeling of 20-year cycle in both pressure and sea surface temperatures in North Pacific, (3) modeling of low frequency internal variability, (4) addition of aerosols to stratosphere to simulate Pinatubo effect on ozone, (5) development of fast, comprehensive chemistry in the troposphere for urban pollution studies, (6) new prognostic cloud parameterization in global atmospheric code remedied problems with North Pacific atmospheric circulation and excessive equatorial precipitation, (7) development of a unique aerosol analysis technique, the aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS), which allows real-time analysis of the size and chemical composition of individual aerosol particles, and (8) numerical physics applying Approximate Inertial Manifolds to ocean circulation. 14 refs., 6 figs.

  14. Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

    SciTech Connect

    Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; Liu, Wei

    2015-10-10

    The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although the weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.

  15. Understanding the El Niño-like oceanic response in the tropical Pacific to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; Liu, Wei

    2015-10-01

    The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although the weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80 % of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.

  16. Using Interactive Technology to Support Students' Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varma, Keisha; Linn, Marcia C.

    2012-08-01

    In this work, we examine middle school students' understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming. We designed and refined a technology-enhanced curriculum module called Global Warming: Virtual Earth. In the module activities, students conduct virtual experiments with a visualization of the greenhouse effect. They analyze data and draw conclusions about how individual variables effect changes in the Earth's temperature. They also carry out inquiry activities to make connections between scientific processes, the socio-scientific issues, and ideas presented in the media. Results show that participating in the unit increases students' understanding of the science. We discuss how students integrate their ideas about global climate change as a result of using virtual experiments that allow them to explore meaningful complexities of the climate system.

  17. A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.

    2012-01-01

    How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

  18. Joint CO2 and CH4 accountability for global warming

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Kirk R.; Desai, Manish A.; Rogers, Jamesine V.; Houghton, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a transparent climate debt index incorporating both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We develop national historic emissions databases for both greenhouse gases to 2005, justifying 1950 as the starting point for global perspectives. We include CO2 emissions from fossil sources [CO2(f)], as well as, in a separate analysis, land use change and forestry. We calculate the CO2(f) and CH4 remaining in the atmosphere in 2005 from 205 countries using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report impulse response functions. We use these calculations to estimate the fraction of remaining global emissions due to each country, which is applied to total radiative forcing in 2005 to determine the combined climate debt from both greenhouse gases in units of milliwatts per square meter per country or microwatts per square meter per person, a metric we term international natural debt (IND). Australia becomes the most indebted large country per capita because of high CH4 emissions, overtaking the United States, which is highest for CO2(f). The differences between the INDs of developing and developed countries decline but remain large. We use IND to assess the relative reduction in IND from choosing between CO2(f) and CH4`control measures and to contrast the imposed versus experienced health impacts from climate change. Based on 2005 emissions, the same hypothetical impact on world 2050 IND could be achieved by decreasing CH4 emissions by 46% as stopping CO2 emissions entirely, but with substantial differences among countries, implying differential optimal strategies. Adding CH4 shifts the basic narrative about differential international accountability for climate change. PMID:23847202

  19. Consistent responses of East Asian summer mean rainfall to global warming in CMIP5 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qu, Xia; Huang, Gang; Zhou, Wen

    2014-07-01

    East Asia summer rainfall is of great social-economic importance. Based on observations, reanalysis and simulations of 16 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the responses of East Asia summer precipitation, as well as some relevant features, to global warming are investigated. The CMIP5 historical simulation reasonably reproduces the climatology of summer rainfall, the associated circulation, the moisture and its transportation, and the mid-troposphere horizontal advection of temperature as well. Under global warming, the rainfall enhancement is robustly projected in the state-of-the-art models over North China, Northeast China, northern coast of Japan and the Kuroshio. As well, the total summer rainfall over East Asia is consistently increased in the models. For the consistent responses, the moisture budget analysis based on the simulations shows that two factors are responsible: one is increased moisture. As East Asia is a climatological ascent region in northern summer, increased moisture induced by global warming leads to more moisture transported upward and thus the rainfall rise. The other is enhanced evaporation, which may be caused by surface warming and provides more precipitable water to the atmosphere column. Furthermore, the results may provide some implications to the long-term variability of East Asia summer rainfall over the last several decades.

  20. Fluvial response to abrupt global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary.

    PubMed

    Foreman, Brady Z; Heller, Paul L; Clementz, Mark T

    2012-11-01

    Climate strongly affects the production of sediment from mountain catchments as well as its transport and deposition within adjacent sedimentary basins. However, identifying climatic influences on basin stratigraphy is complicated by nonlinearities, feedback loops, lag times, buffering and convergence among processes within the sediment routeing system. The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) arguably represents the most abrupt and dramatic instance of global warming in the Cenozoic era and has been proposed to be a geologic analogue for anthropogenic climate change. Here we evaluate the fluvial response in western Colorado to the PETM. Concomitant with the carbon isotope excursion marking the PETM we document a basin-wide shift to thick, multistoried, sheets of sandstone characterized by variable channel dimensions, dominance of upper flow regime sedimentary structures, and prevalent crevasse splay deposits. This progradation of coarse-grained lithofacies matches model predictions for rapid increases in sediment flux and discharge, instigated by regional vegetation overturn and enhanced monsoon precipitation. Yet the change in fluvial deposition persisted long after the approximately 200,000-year-long PETM with its increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, emphasizing the strong role the protracted transmission of catchment responses to distant depositional systems has in constructing large-scale basin stratigraphy. Our results, combined with evidence for increased dissolved loads and terrestrial clay export to world oceans, indicate that the transient hyper-greenhouse climate of the PETM may represent a major geomorphic 'system-clearing event', involving a global mobilization of dissolved and solid sediment loads on Earth's surface. PMID:23128230