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Last update: August 15, 2014.
1

Global Warming?  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Presents information and data on an experiment designed to test whether different atmosphere compositions are affected by light and temperature during both cooling and heating. Although flawed, the experiment should help students appreciate the difficulties that researchers face when trying to find evidence of global warming. (PR)

Eichman, Julia Christensen; Brown, Jeff A.

1994-01-01

2

Mechanisms Affecting the Overturning Response in Global Warming Simulations  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate models used to produce global warming scenarios exhibit widely diverging responses of the thermohaline circulation (THC). To investigate the mechanisms responsible for this variability, a regional Atlantic Ocean model driven with forcing diagnosed from two coupled greenhouse gas simulations has been employed. One of the coupled models (MPI) shows an almost constant THC, the other (GFDL) shows a declining

U. Schweckendiek; J. Willebrand

2005-01-01

3

The rise of global warming skepticism: exploring affective image associations in the United States over time.  

PubMed

This article explores how affective image associations to global warming have changed over time. Four nationally representative surveys of the American public were conducted between 2002 and 2010 to assess public global warming risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behavior. Affective images (positive or negative feelings and cognitive representations) were collected and content analyzed. The results demonstrate a large increase in "naysayer" associations, indicating extreme skepticism about the issue of climate change. Multiple regression analyses found that holistic affect and "naysayer" associations were more significant predictors of global warming risk perceptions than cultural worldviews or sociodemographic variables, including political party and ideology. The results demonstrate the important role affective imagery plays in judgment and decision-making processes, how these variables change over time, and how global warming is currently perceived by the American public. PMID:22486296

Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2012-06-01

4

Global Warming  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This document was created as a presentation for a fuel cell training seminar at Hocking College. The presentation covers the basics of global warming, how human behavior has impacted our environment and the change using renewable fuels can have. This document may be downloaded in Power Point file format.

2012-10-08

5

Health in the hot zone - How could global warming affect humans?  

SciTech Connect

A soon-to-be-released report from the World Health Organization examines the health effects of global warming, calling climate change one of the largest public health challenges for the upcoming century. The issue extends beyond tropical illness: deaths caused directly by heat, dwindling agricultural yields etc. could all affect human health. This article looks at the following health related effects and gives an overview of the scientific information available on each: temperature and mortality; tropical trouble, including vecorborne diseases and increase in susceptable populations; and waterborne problems such as cholera, harmful algal bloomes, food shortages.

Monastersky, R.

1996-04-06

6

LETSNet Global Warming Unit  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This unit includes classroom activities to help students understand global warming and its possible effects on human beings. Lessons in the unit provide students with opportunities to study global climate changes, discuss and debate the current arguments for and against global warming and the Greenhouse Effect, investigate the possibility of global warming and the Greenhouse Effect, and present their findings in the form of research reports.

2011-04-26

7

EPA GLOBAL WARMING WEBSITE  

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA Global Warming Site strives to present or direct viewers to the most timely social, scientific, and logistic information available on the global warming issue. The site offers links to related sites as well as its own selection of material, which is expected to grow ...

8

Global warming elucidated  

SciTech Connect

The meaning of global warming and its relevance to everyday life is explained. Simple thermodynamics is used to predict an oscillatory nature of the change in climate due to global warming. Global warming causes extreme events and bad weather in the near term. In the long term it may cause the earth to transition to another equilibrium state through many oscillation in climatic patterns. The magnitudes of these oscillations could easily exceed the difference between the end points. The author further explains why many no longer fully understands the nature and magnitudes of common phenomena such as storms and wind speeds because of these oscillations, and the absorptive properties of clouds. The author links the increase in duration of the El Nino to global warming, and further predicts public health risks as the earth transitions to another equilibrium state in its young history.

Shen, S. [Global Warming International Center, Woodridge, IL (United States)

1995-03-01

9

Global warming, bad weather, insurance losses and the global economy  

SciTech Connect

Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. The impact on the insurance industry is described. Why global warming in the near term causes very bad weather is explained. The continuing trend of very bad weather and the future impact on the insurance industry is explored. How very bad weather can affect the global financial market is explained. Taking a historical view of the development of the modern economy, the authors describe in the near term the impact of global warming on the global economy. The long term impact of global warming on the global economy and the human race is explored. Opportunities presented by global warming are described.

Low, N.C. [UOB Life Assurance Ltd., Singapore (Singapore); Shen, S. [Global Warming International Center, Woodridge, IL (United States)

1996-09-01

10

What is Global Warming?  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This textbook chapter presents evidence of a warming climate and outlines how a clear picture of global warming has emerged since the 1980s. Students learn about sampling error sources in climate data, and compare graphical data collected by climate scientists Jim Hansen, Philip Jones and Tom Wigley, as they follow the global warming hypothesis move through the process of science. This is the fourth chapter in the unit, Climate Change, which addresses the question of how human activities are changing Earth's climate. The resource includes three classroom investigations, links to current news articles, and a suite of pre- and post-unit assessments. A teacher's guide supports classroom use. This is chapter 4 of Climate Change, part of Global Systems Science (GSS), an interdisciplinary course for high school students that emphasizes how scientists from a wide variety of fields work together to understand significant problems of global impact.

11

Global Warming News Zone  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This news page, provided by space.com, posts news stories and other current information related to global warming. Touching on topics ranging from industrial pollution to jet contrails to glacier meltings, this Website attempts to centralize news about many of the recent advances in our understanding of global warming. In many cases, news articles mention the scientific resource(s) upon which the findings are based, serving as a helpful hint for readers wishing to delve deeper into the science behind the news story.

1999-01-01

12

An Analysis of Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global Warming is an active research issue that concerns science fields as well as economic, environmental and political concerns. In this paper, I summarized the observations of global warming and the causes and possible effects of the warming. Modeling studies are also discussed and disputed. While all the questions are not answered about global warming, scientists are striving towards the

John Cangialosi

13

Is Global Warming Accelerating?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

2009-12-01

14

Virtual Courseware: Global Warming  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This two-part interactive feature illustrates principles of global warming and climate change due to natural and human factors. In the first part, students explore climate at Mono Lake in California. They will estimate the temperature for a particular time period by computing the surface energy in the area, and use the model to estimate temperature for any month, in modern and ice age climates, and to predict future temperatures. In the second part, they use data on fossil fuel emissions, gross domestic product, energy types, land use, and other gas emissions to model temperature changes in different world cities for a selected month and year. The exercise includes assessment materials for teachers and tutorials on global warming.

15

Global Warming Wheel Card  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this activity, students construct a Global Warming Wheel Card, a hand-held tool that they can use to estimate their household's emissions of carbon dioxide and learn how they can reduce them. One side of the wheel illustrates how much carbon dioxide a household contributes to the atmosphere per year through activities such as driving a car, using energy in the home, and disposing of waste. The other side shows how changes in behavior can reduce personal emissions.

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

16

Global Warming Webquest  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This activity will allow students to learn firsthand how society and environment might be impacted by global warming and how to help people make better decisions regarding all the complicated issues surrounding climate change, energy use, and available policy options. Students will take on the role of scientist, business leader, or policy maker and be part of a climate action team, which will make some of the same discoveries and decisions that are made in the âreal worldâ every day.

2007-01-01

17

Global Warming: Undoubtedly Real  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

A major new report issued by the National Research Council of the National Academies on January 12 concludes that global warming is "'undoubtedly real,' and that surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 years." In particular, the report examines the apparent conflict between surface temperature and upper-air temperature. The former has risen about 0.4 to 0.8 degrees Celsius, or 0.7 to 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit, in the last century, while no appreciable warming has been detected in the "atmospheric layer extending up to about 5 miles from the Earth's surface." The report offers a number of explanations for this discrepancy, including long-term (over 100 years) measurements of the surface temperature compared to short-term (about 20 year) data collection from the upper atmosphere, and uncertainties in temperature measurements. While this new report will certainly bolster global warming prevention advocates, it is highly unlikely to settle the debate once and for all.

De Nie, Michael W.

18

Predicting the fate of a living fossil: how will global warming affect sex determination and hatching phenology in tuatara?  

PubMed Central

How will climate change affect species' reproduction and subsequent survival? In many egg-laying reptiles, the sex of offspring is determined by the temperature experienced during a critical period of embryonic development (temperature-dependent sex determination, TSD). Increasing air temperatures are likely to skew offspring sex ratios in the absence of evolutionary or plastic adaptation, hence we urgently require means for predicting the future distributions of species with TSD. Here we develop a mechanistic model that demonstrates how climate, soil and topography interact with physiology and nesting behaviour to determine sex ratios of tuatara, cold-climate reptiles from New Zealand with an unusual developmental biology. Under extreme regional climate change, all-male clutches would hatch at 100% of current nest sites of the rarest species, Sphenodon guntheri, by the mid-2080s. We show that tuatara could behaviourally compensate for the male-biasing effects of warmer air temperatures by nesting later in the season or selecting shaded nest sites. Later nesting is, however, an unlikely response to global warming, as many oviparous species are nesting earlier as the climate warms. Our approach allows the assessment of the thermal suitability of current reserves and future translocation sites for tuatara, and can be readily modified to predict climatic impacts on any species with TSD.

Mitchell, Nicola J; Kearney, Michael R; Nelson, Nicola J; Porter, Warren P

2008-01-01

19

Virtual Courseware: Global Warming  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

These materials illustrate the principles of global warming and climate change due to natural and human-caused factors. They include a set of activities on the Earth's energy budget and future climate change. The energy budget model uses Mono Lake, California as an example. The future climate change activity uses the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Data for six scenarios can be examined and comparisons can be observed by selecting a change or stabilization in emissions. The tools in the activity can generate data that examine predicted changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, global and regional temperatures, sea level, and flooding. There are also tutorials on a variety of topics, such as Milankovitch Cycles, Earth's seasons, the Carbon cycle, and others. An assessment tool is included so that instructors can determine how well learning objectives are being met.

20

Global Warming Central  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Pace Energy Project is aimed at an academic audience and features links to key reports, treaties, and speeches, including President Clinton's October, 1997 speech outlining the US position on global warming. Recently, delegates from 160 countries commenced a ten day conference in Kyoto, Japan to agree on a strategy to cut the world's emissions of greenhouse gases, which are thought to cause global warming. Any agreement, however, will be difficult, as large divisions between nations were apparent even before the conference began. The two most important disagreements concern the amount of greenhouse gas cuts and the standards for developing nations. The European Union seeks a 15% cut in gases while the US government, lobbied hard by business groups, wants no reduction at all for at least ten years. The other major sticking point is whether developing countries should have to reach the same targets as the developed world, which is responsible for the vast majority of the emissions. Little progress is projected until the last phase of the conference, when senior representatives, including Vice-President Al Gore, arrive in Kyoto.

Studies., Pace U.

1997-01-01

21

Global Warming FAQs  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research is dedicated to understanding the atmosphereâÂÂthe air around usâÂÂand the interconnected processes that make up the Earth system, from the ocean floor to the Sun's core. The National Center for Atmospheric Research and the UCAR Office of Programs provide research, observing and computing facilities, and a variety of services for the atmospheric and Earth sciences community. Here, they have helpfully provided a series of frequently asked questions about Climate Change. Each question provides a clear and concise answer and provides links to further information. In addition, the site includes a special inset on Global Warming, a "Ask a Scientist" section, and links at the bottom of the page to learn more.

2008-10-21

22

Global Warming Science  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Many of our readers will no doubt already be familiar with MIT's excellent OpenCourseWare (OCW), which offers free college-level curricula online to the public. The OpenCourseWare site is well worth a browse, as it offers courses on a variety of useful and engaging subjects such as business, health and medicine, mathematics, fine arts and science. This particular course, which was originally offered to undergraduate students in the spring of 2012, looks at the science behind global warming. Content includes lecture notes, assignments and student projects. The content could be used as a springboard for instructors teaching similar classes, or may prove useful to curious individuals looking to learn more about this timely and important topic. [AHT

2012-01-01

23

Ecosystem Responses to Global Warming  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Last week, scientific results from three unrelated but complementary projects were announced, contributing to a greater understanding of global warming and ecosystem-wide responses to warming events (such as El Nino). The first article, appearing in the September 8, 2000 issue of Science and spearheaded by Dr. John Magnuson of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, documents a change in freeze and ice breakup dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. The researchers found consistent evidence of later freeze and earlier breakup of ice during an 150-year span (1846-1995) at lakes and rivers across the US, Canada, Finland, Switzerland, Russia, and Japan. In continuing their research, Magnuson and colleagues plan to investigate the effects of extreme climate signals, such as El Nino, within the longer time series. A second research project, led by researchers at Cornell University and also published in the September 8 Science, links cholera outbreaks to climate cycles (such as El Nino) using a mathematical model. Third, researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (published in the September 15 issue of Geophysical Research Letters), have described how El Nino events may skew the equilibrium of phytoplankton in ocean currents, with important consequences for food webs and carbon dioxide concentrations -- which, in turn, may affect global warming. The combination of these three scientific articles and the complex interactions they discuss, form the focus of this week's In The News.

Payne, Laura X.

24

Global warming and developing countries  

Microsoft Academic Search

There are concerns that the rapid development of the developing countries will hasten global warming and exacerbate resource problems. That is to say, it is quite possible that we cannot solve the North-South problem while at the same time containing global warming and conserving fossil fuels. But this paper attempts to show that, on the contrary, the fast development of

Kokichi Ito

1996-01-01

25

In League: Global Warming And Globalization  

Microsoft Academic Search

What relationship exists between the phenomena of global warming and globalization? How can a small grassroots organization promote green living and cultural food traditions through environmental education?\\u000aExamination of the relationship between global warming and globalization has required a process of basic research of pre-written texts; resulting in a theoretical analysis on selected journalism within this field of research. The

Allissa Beth Cloer

2008-01-01

26

Issues concerning global warming today  

Microsoft Academic Search

The global weather of today is growing significantly warmer; this is an indisputable fact. However, the scientific community\\u000a has not yet reached consensus on the causes of global warming and its possible consequences. This paper introduces the causes\\u000a of global warming and summarizes its results, which both involve a series of huge and complex system issues. Our top priority\\u000a is

Zhenqiu Ren

2008-01-01

27

Warm up to the idea: Global warming is here  

SciTech Connect

This article summarizes recent information about global warming as well as the history of greenhouse gas emissions which have lead to more and more evidence of global warming. The primary source detailed is the second major study report on global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change. Along with comments about the environmental effects of global warming such as coastline submersion, the economic, social and political aspects of alleviating greenhouse emissions and the threat of global warming are discussed.

Lynch, C.F.

1996-07-01

28

Global Warming Trends.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Results from the analysis of land and marine records from the past century are presented. It is indicated that the planet earth has warmed about one-half of a degree celsius. The uncertainty of these measurements and future warming trends are discussed. (CW)

Jones, Philip D.; Wigley, Tom M. L.

1990-01-01

29

Global Warming: East-West Connections  

Microsoft Academic Search

Air pollutants that damage human health and agricultural productivity, such as tropospheric ozone and black soot, also affect global climate. Multiple benefits of reducing these pollutants become more compelling as concern about global warming increases. Air pollution is especially harmful in developing countries that are now large emitters of carbon dioxide, providing incentive for developed and developing countries to cooperate

James Hansen; Makiko Sato

30

Global Warming Kids.net  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Global Warming Kids .Net is a project of ClimateChangeEducation.Org: science museum docents; students, staff and scientists at the University of California. Plus elementary, middle and high school student volunteers & interns.

31

Soil Microbes and Global Warming  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this video, adapted from KUAC-TV and the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, viewers learn how one-celled organisms in permafrost may be contributing to greenhouse gas levels and global warming.

Kuac; Foundation, Wgbh E.; Domain, Teachers'

32

Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

Aubrecht, Gordon

2009-04-01

33

Global Warming Trends  

Microsoft Academic Search

One way to see if the earth is actually getting warmer is to check historical temperature records. A decade ago the authors began to do just that. They collected a hodgepodge of readings going back 300 years. Then they attempted to quantify the data. Analysis of land and marine records confirms that our planet has warmed half a degree Celsius

Philip D. Jones; Tom M. L. Wigley

1990-01-01

34

Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The impacts of human activities on the global climate have been of great concern since last century. Scientific researches have indicated that global warming associated with the global climate change can affect tropical cyclone activities. A new approach ...

L. Wu B. Wang

2002-01-01

35

Global Warming: Physics and Facts  

SciTech Connect

This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO{sub 2}; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment.

Levi, B.G. (Physics Today, New York, NY (United States)); Hafemeister, D. (Committee on Foreign Relations (U.S. Senate), Washington, DC (United States)); Scribner, R. (Georgetown Univ., Washington, DC (United States)) (eds.)

1992-01-01

36

Global Warming: Physics and Facts  

SciTech Connect

This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth`s radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO{sub 2}; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment.

Levi, B.G. [Physics Today, New York, NY (United States); Hafemeister, D. [Committee on Foreign Relations (U.S. Senate), Washington, DC (United States); Scribner, R. [Georgetown Univ., Washington, DC (United States)] [eds.

1992-05-01

37

Global Warming Materials for Educators  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Materials available at this site include a set of educational toolkits about ecosystems, a global warming map, a renewable energy teaching guide, and two reports. Each of the toolkits focuses on a specific ecosystem service, such as water purification or forest carbon storage. The map (and accompanying curriculum guide) shows where the fingerprints and harbingers of global warming have occurred in recent years. The teaching guide includes hands-on activities, games, action projects, and a resource guide. The reports focus on climate change impacts in California and in the Gulf Coast region. Corresponding teaching guides consist of multiple activities that are closely tied to and build upon the reports.

2011-04-21

38

Business Feels Heat from Global Warming.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The article describes various environmental issues, particularly the global warming, that will affect the U.S. industry in the coming years. The article looks at the political aspects of these issues and the growth of the international market for environm...

E. Reynolds

1991-01-01

39

Global Warming: Early Warning Signs  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Created by a host of organizations (Environmental Defense Fund, Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club, Union of Concerned Scientists, US Public Interest Research Group, World Resources Institute, and World Wildlife Fund), this site seeks to provide evidence of the "fingerprints" and "harbingers" of global warming. A clickable map of the world enables users to take a closer look at geographic regions, at specific examples of "fingerprints" (e.g., heat waves, sea level rise, melting glaciers, and Arctic and Antarctic warming) and "harbingers" (spreading disease, earlier arrival of spring, range shifts and population declines in plants and animals, bleaching of coral reefs, extreme weather events, and fires). While it is unclear that any specific event may be explained by global warming, the combination of events highlighted at this page provides powerful fodder for further thought.

1999-01-01

40

Science Sampler: Global Warming Project  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

To address the issue of global warming locally, the author developed an inquiry-based project to examine the impact of the school's traffic situation on climate change. In this project, students collected data in the parking lot/driveway, researched green

Blough, Christopher

2009-11-01

41

World View of Global Warming  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This page contains information and photographs related to climate change and its impact. The World View of Global Warming project is documenting this change through science photography from the Arctic to Antarctica, from glaciers to the oceans, across all climate zones.

Braasch, Gary

2010-07-30

42

Students' perceptions of global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

In view of the potential significance of global warming to society, education about this issue is important. However, little is known of the preconceptions and misconceptions of young adults in this area. In this study the ideas of a group of first year undergraduate students about the “Greenhouse Effect” have been studied by questionnaire. The results show that although some

Edward Boyes; Martin Stanisstreet

1992-01-01

43

Global warming at the summit  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

During the recent summit meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Bill Clinton, the two leaders reaffirmed their concerns about global warming and the need to continue to take actions to try to reduce the threat.In a June 4 joint statement, they stressed the need to develop flexibility mechanisms, including international emissions trading, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They also noted that initiatives to reduce the risk of greenhouse warming, including specific mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, could potentially promote economic growth.

Showstack, Randy

44

Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Since both greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds strongly affect outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with no affect or less affect on solar radiation, respectively, an attempt to delay global warming to buy time for emission reduction strategies to work might naturally target cirrus clouds. Cirrus having optical depths < 3.6 cover 13% of the globe and have a net warming effect

D. L. Mitchell

2009-01-01

45

Global warming and hyperbolic discounting  

Microsoft Academic Search

The use of a constant discount rate to study long-lived environmental problems such as global warming has two disadvantages: the prescribed policy is sensitive to the discount rate, and with moderate discount rates, large future damages have almost no effect on current decisions. Time-consistent quasi-hyperbolic discounting alleviates both of these modeling problems, and is a plausible description of how people

Larry Karp

2005-01-01

46

Global warming and hyperbolic discounting  

Microsoft Academic Search

The use of a constant discount rate to study long-lived environmental problems such as global warming has two disadvantages: the prescribed policy is sensitive to the discount rate, and with moderate discount rates, large future damages have almost no effect on current decisions. Time-consistent quasi-hyperbolic discounting alleviates both of these modeling problems, and is a plausible description of how people

Larry S Karp

2004-01-01

47

Global Warming Facts and Our Future  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This virtual museum website provides easily understood scientific information that helps both policy makers and the public answer important questions about the changing global climate in order to promote informed decisions. The site examines the Earth's natural carbon balance and the ways that humans are affecting this balance, then goes on to explore possible responses to global warming both at a personal and national level. It explains some of the methods for measuring past change and modeling future changes, as well as discussing the impacts of and responses to global warming. There are several teaching activities listed as "pre- and post-visit," though they may also be used as stand-alone exercises, and four more teaching activities in the 'Responses to Change' section of the site, including a carbon dioxide calculator that examines personal and national actions that could be taken to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Sciences, Marian K.

48

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

A resource for teaching about the consequences of global warming. Discusses feedback from the temperature increase, changes in the global precipitation pattern, effects on agriculture, weather extremes, effects on forests, effects on biodiversity, effects on sea levels, and actions which will help the global community cope with global warming. (LZ)

Andrews, Bill

1995-01-01

49

The Discovery of Global Warming  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This web site provides an overview of the history of scientific research and public policy on climate change, from the nineteenth century to the present. The site is an expanded version of the book "The Discovery of Global Warming" by Spencer Weart, and is presented as a series of essays with hyperlinks connecting related topics from page to page. Topics include climate data, influences on climate, models of climate change, and societal impacts. The essays are searchable by keyword, and the entire site can be downloaded as a zipped file or a series of printable files (PDFs).

Weart, Spencer R.

50

Global Warming in 5 Steps  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Scientists say the planet is warming because of human activities, namely the greenhouse effect from carbon dioxide released to the atmosphere when burning fossil fuels. But, how do we know? How do scientists know? Students are presented with the following questions: 1) What makes a greenhouse gas a greenhouse gas? 2) Is carbon dioxide a greenhouse gas? [Instructor: How do we know?] 3) Is the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increasing? How do we know? 4) Is carbon dioxide [in the atmosphere] increasing because of human activities? [Instructor: How do we know?] ---- Discussion of results and prediction of what students expect will happen to global average temperature... 5) Is global average temperature increasing? How do we know? Separate groups of students research just one question each on the internet and submit a brief summary to the instructor. The instructor and class go over results for just the first four questions. The instructor addresses "How do we know" for questions 2 and 4. Then, students are asked what they think will happen to global average temperature based on results of the first four questions (i.e. make an hypothesis). Finally, the results from the last group are presented and students are asked to discuss how observed global temperature changes compare with their hypothesis.

Taylor, Stephen

51

Role of computer in global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

In the past few years, the world has experienced devastating natural disasters on a level that hasn't been seen for decades. There is much speculation that these especially strong phenomena are due to global climate change, brought on by Global Warming. The term 'Global Warming' refers to the rising temperature of the earth due to an increased amount of greenhouse

Rupali Jadhav

2011-01-01

52

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

PubMed Central

As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.

Ibanez, Ines; Primack, Richard B.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A.

2010-01-01

53

How to stop global warming  

SciTech Connect

This paper reports on how to stop global warming. At the Toronto Conference on Climate Change in 1988, the world's industrialized nations agreed on a goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 20 percent by the year 2005. This would not stabilize atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases but would at least slow their accumulation. Although difficult to achieve, the Toronto goal is certainly reachable. Newer, more efficient technologies can lower energy consumption without effecting economic output. CFC- substitutes can provide refrigeration. In fact, an international carbon tax of just $1 per barrel of oil, or $6 per ton of coal, would generate more than enough revenue to pay for the necessary fuel-saving measures. This tax could result from an international agreement similar to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which obliges its signatories to cut down on production of CFCs.

Goldenberg, J. (Sao Carlos Univ., SP (Brazil). Dept. de Fisica)

1990-11-01

54

Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.  

PubMed

The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective. PMID:22695877

Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban

2013-01-01

55

The EPA Global Warming Kids Site  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) site focuses on the science and impacts of global warming or climate change, and on actions that help address global warming. It features games, events, and links to other relevant sites for kids and educators, including activities on climate and weather and the greenhouse effect.

56

The economic fundamentals of global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

If unpriced emission of greenhouse gases imposes real costs on future generations, both present and future generations can enjoy a higher con- sumption of economic goods and services through the correction of this unpriced externality, so there is no real economic opportunity cost to mitigation of global warming. The misperception that control of global warming is costly rests on the

Duncan K. Foley

2007-01-01

57

Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes  

Microsoft Academic Search

A secular warming of sea surface temperature occurs almost everywhere over the global ocean. Here we use observational data to show that global warming of the sea surface is associated with a secular increase of tropospheric vertical wind shear in the main development region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. The increased wind shear coincides with a weak but robust downward trend

Chunzai Wang; Sang-Ki Lee

2008-01-01

58

Global Warming: Life in a Greenhouse  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This lesson investigates evidence and consequences of global warming. Students can debate whether global warming is a potential danger, review their community's climate statistics, log their gas consumption and emissions for a week, create a panel discussion on fossil fuels, investigate alternative energy and transportation and more!

Rebecca Field (Colby-Sawyer College;)

2003-08-01

59

Global Warming: How Much and Why?  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Summarizes the history of the study of global warming and includes a discussion of the role of gases, like carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). Discusses modern research on the global warming, including computer modelling and the super-greenhouse effect. (YP)

Lanouette, William

1990-01-01

60

Global warming and reproductive health.  

PubMed

The largest absolute numbers of maternal deaths occur among the 40-50 million women who deliver annually without a skilled birth attendant. Most of these deaths occur in countries with a total fertility rate of greater than 4. The combination of global warming and rapid population growth in the Sahel and parts of the Middle East poses a serious threat to reproductive health and to food security. Poverty, lack of resources, and rapid population growth make it unlikely that most women in these countries will have access to skilled birth attendants or emergency obstetric care in the foreseeable future. Three strategies can be implemented to improve women's health and reproductive rights in high-fertility, low-resource settings: (1) make family planning accessible and remove non-evidenced-based barriers to contraception; (2) scale up community distribution of misoprostol for prevention of postpartum hemorrhage and, where it is legal, for medical abortion; and (3) eliminate child marriage and invest in girls and young women, thereby reducing early childbearing. PMID:22883918

Potts, Malcolm; Henderson, Courtney E

2012-10-01

61

Some economics of global warming  

SciTech Connect

The greenhouse effect itself is simple enough to understand and is not in any real dispute. What is in dispute is its magnitude over the coming century, its translation into changes in climates around the globe, and the impacts of those climate changes on human welfare and the natural environment. These are beyond the professional understanding of any single person. The sciences involved are too numerous and diverse. Demography, economics, biology, and the technology sciences are needed to project emissions; atmospheric chemistry, oceanography, biology, and meteorology are needed to translate emissions into climates; biology, agronomy, health sciences, economics, sociology, and glaciology are needed to identify and assess impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems. And those are not all. There are expert judgments on large pieces of the subject, but no single person clothed in this panoply of disciplines has shown up or is likely to. This article makes an attempt to forecast the economic and social consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and attempting to prevent it.

Schelling, T.C. (Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States))

1992-03-01

62

How Serious is the Global Warming Threat?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Despite the media’s and politicians’ insistence that the science of global warming is “settled”, there are good reasons to\\u000a distrust climate model projections of future global warming. While the supposed scientific consensus is that mankind is very\\u000a likely to blame for recent global warmth, this is mostly a statement of faith made from a position of relative ignorance about\\u000a natural

Roy W. Spencer

2007-01-01

63

How warm days increase belief in global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

64

Delayed flowering and global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Within general trends toward earlier spring, observed cases of species and ecosystems that have not advanced their phenology, or have even delayed it, appear paradoxical, especially when made in temperate regions experiencing significant warming. The typical interpretation of this pattern has been that non-responders are insensitive to relatively small levels of warming over the past 40 years, while species showing delays are often viewed as statistical noise or evidence for unknown confounding factors at play. However, plant physiology studies suggest that when winter chilling (vernalization) is required to initiate spring development, winter warming may retard spring events, masking expected advances caused by spring warming. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that 1) apparent non-responders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to winter and spring warming are opposite in sign, 2) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species' response to autumn/winter versus spring warming, and 3) inclusion of these effects strongly improves hindcast predictions of long-term flowering trends. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend towards phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently non-responding species. Our results illuminate an under-studied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues in order to improve predictability of species responses to anthropogenic climate change.

Cook, B. I.; Wolkovich, E. M.; Parmesan, C.

2011-12-01

65

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

A resource for the teaching of the history and causes of climate change. Discusses evidence of climate change from the Viking era, early ice ages, the most recent ice age, natural causes of climate change, human-made causes of climate change, projections of global warming, and unequal warming. (LZ)

Andrews, Bill

1994-01-01

66

Is global warming already changing ocean productivity?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global warming is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on the global distribution of ocean productivity comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of SeaWiFS data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute global warming trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in SeaWiFS data to longer-term records from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of real trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global warming. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 yr length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001-2100 suggests that, on average, the global warming trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

Henson, S. A.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Dunne, J. P.; Bopp, L.; Lima, I.; Doney, S. C.; John, J.; Beaulieu, C.

2009-11-01

67

Policy Adoption Rules and Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Although there is widespread agreement about the dangers of global warming and the resulting need to cut down emissions, there\\u000a does not seem to be general agreement about the exact form the policy should take or the timing of its adoption. Failure to\\u000a adopt and implement policies against global warming reflects the complexity of the problem, the uncertainties of climate

Anastasios Xepapadeas

1998-01-01

68

Issues in-depth: Inside global warming  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Over the last 15 years, much attention has been given to global warming, and whether the increase in the Earth's temperature in recent decades threatens the survival of life on Earth. As such, it's important that science teachers understand the basics behind the scientific phenomenon, the controversy surrounding the topic, and how to discuss and explore global warming with their students. This comprehensive discussion includes suggestions, activities, and resources that are designed for use in the middle school science classroom.

Greitz-Miller, Roxanne

2006-10-01

69

Television news coverage of global warming  

SciTech Connect

Citizens are expressing increased concern over the number and variety of environmental problems. Global warming in particular is a focus of concern for scientists and environmental groups. Such concern should naturally motivate individuals to seek information about these topics. Many people turn to the media, most usually television, for information on the nature of these problems. Consequently, this paper studied media coverage of environmental issues, specifically global warming. Television coverage was examined for: (1) the general nature of coverage; (2) biases in coverage; (3) visual images used to cover global warming; and (4) the congruity between visual and verbal messages in newscasts. Nightly newscasts from the three major American television networks were analyzed from 1993--1995 to determine the overall nature of global warming coverage since the Earth Summit in 1992. Results indicated that television news suffers from some serious inadequacies in its portrayal of global warming issues. The paper concludes by first discussing how its results intertwine with other work in the global warming and mass media field. Finally, the implications of inadequacies in media coverage for policy-makers when it comes to sound management of critical resources in this area are also discussed.

Nitz, M. [Univ. of Idaho, Moscow, ID (United States). School of Communication; Jarvis, S. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States). Dept. of Speech Communication; Kenski, H. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Dept. of Communication

1996-06-01

70

Global Warming: Is it Real?  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This short article from the Why Files discusses research that provides new evidence for a century-long warming trend. The research is based on records of lake and river ice melting and freezing dates over a 150-year period in the Northern Hemisphere. Researcher John Magnuson of the University of Wisconsin-Madison published his results in the journal Science.

Tenenbaum, David

2000-09-11

71

The Effect of Global Warming on Infectious Diseases  

PubMed Central

Global warming has various effects on human health. The main indirect effects are on infectious diseases. Although the effects on infectious diseases will be detected worldwide, the degree and types of the effect are different, depending on the location of the respective countries and socioeconomical situations. Among infectious diseases, water- and foodborne infectious diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases are two main categories that are forecasted to be most affected. The effect on vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever is mainly because of the expansion of the infested areas of vector mosquitoes and increase in the number and feeding activity of infected mosquitoes. There will be increase in the number of cases with water- and foodborne diarrhoeal diseases. Even with the strongest mitigation procedures, global warming cannot be avoided for decades. Therefore, implementation of adaptation measures to the effect of global warming is the most practical action we can take. It is generally accepted that the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases have not been apparent at this point yet in East Asia. However, these impacts will appear in one form or another if global warming continues to progress in future. Further research on the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases and on future prospects should be conducted.

Kurane, Ichiro

2010-01-01

72

Hydrological consequences of global warming  

SciTech Connect

The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is strong evidence that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide far exceeds the natural range over the last 650,000 years, and this recent warming of the climate system is unequivocal, resulting in more frequent extreme precipitation events, earlier snowmelt runoff, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. The effects of recent warming has been well documented and climate model projections indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99 percent) of occurring with significant to severe consequences in response to a warmer lower atmosphere with an accelerating hydrologic cycle.

Miller, Norman L.

2009-06-01

73

Global warming and nuclear power.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Nuclear fission power reactors represent a potential solution to many aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth's atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently ...

L. Wood

1998-01-01

74

Communicating the Dangers of Global Warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

So far, in my opinion, we scientists have not done a good job of communicating the imminent threat posed by global warming, yet I believe there is still time for that if we work efficiently now to overcome existing obstacles. Several of those obstacles are illustrated by contrasting the roles of scientists, the media, special interests, politicians and the public in the ozone depletion and global warming crises. Scientists in America are further challenged by a decline in public science education, a perceived gap between science and religion, increasing politicization of public affairs offices in the government, and accumulation of power by a unitary executive. First order communication tasks are illustrated by a need for improved exchange and understanding, among scientists as well as with the public, of fundamental climate facts: (1) additional global warming exceeding 1C will yield large climate effects, (2) paleoclimate changes contain quantitatively specific information about climate sensitivity that is not widely appreciated, (3) carbon cycle facts, such as the substantial portion of carbon dioxide emissions that will remain in the air "forever", for practical purposes, (4) fossil fuel facts such as the dominant role of coal and unconventional fuels in all business-as-usual scenarios for future energy sources. The facts graphically illustrate the need for prompt actions to avoid disastrous climate change, yet they also reveal the feasibility of a course that minimizes global warming and yields other benefits. Perhaps the greatest challenge is posed by an inappropriate casting of the topic as a dichotomy between those who deny that there is a global warming problem and those who either are exceedingly pessimistic about the prospects for minimizing climate change or believe that solutions would be very expensive. Sensible evaluation of the situation, in my opinion, suggests a strategy for dealing with global warming that is not costly and has many subsidiary benefits, but it does require leadership. Practical difficulties in communicating this story will be illustrated with some personal experiences.

Hansen, J. E.

2006-12-01

75

Energy and global warming impacts of HFC refrigerants and emerging technologies: TEWI-III  

Microsoft Academic Search

The use of hydrofluorocarbons (BFCs) which were developed as alternative refrigerants and insulating foam blowing agents to replace chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) is now being affected by scientific investigations of greenhouse warming and questions about the effects of refrigerants and blowing agents on global warming. A Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) assessment analyzes the environmental affects of these halogenated working fluids in

J. R. Sand; S. K. Fischer; V. D. Baxter

1997-01-01

76

Carbonyl sulfide: No remedy for global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer caused by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (June 15, 1991), and the subsequent cooling of the earth's lower atmosphere [Dutton and Christy, 1992; Minnis et al., 1993] shows that stratospheric aerosols can have a strong effect on the earth's climate. This supports the notion that the intentional enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer through increased carbonyl sulfide (OCS) emissions might be an effective means for counteracting global warming. Through the use of a one-dimensional photochemical model, we investigate what effect such a program might have on global average stratospheric ozone. In addition, we consider the impact of enhanced OCS emissions on rainwater acidity and on the overall health of both plants and animals. We find that while the warming produced by a single CO2 doubling (1 to 4°C) might be offset with ozone losses of less than 5%, any attempt to use carbonyl sulfide as a permanent solution to global warming could result in depletion of global average ozone by 30% or more. We estimate that in order to achieve cooling of 4°C rainwater pH would fall to between 3.5 and 3.8. Finally, a 4°C cooling at the surface will require that ambient near ground OCS levels rise to above 10 ppmv which is probably greater than the safe exposure limit for humans. Thus, enhanced OCS emissions do not provide an environmentally acceptable solution to the problem of global warming.

Taubman, Steven J.; Kasting, James F.

1995-04-01

77

Higher hydroclimatic intensity with global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Because of their dependence on water, natural and human systems are highly sensitive to change in the hydrologic cycle. We introduce a new measure of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT), which integrates metrics of precipitation intensity and dry spell length, viewing the response of these two metrics to global warming as deeply interconnected. Using a suite of global and regional climate model experiments, it is found that increasing HY-INT is a consistent and ubiquitous signature of twenty-first century, greenhouse gas-induce global warming. Depending on the region, the increase in HY-INT is due to an increase in precipitation intensity, dry spell length, or both. Late twentieth century observations also exhibit dominant positive HY-INT trends, providing a hydroclimatic signature of late twentieth century global warming. Precipitation intensity increases because of increased atmospheric water-holding capacity in warmer conditions. However, increases in mean precipitation are tied to increases in surface evaporation rates, which are lower than for atmospheric moisture. This leads to a reduction in the number of wet days and thus an increase in mean dry spell length. This analysis identifies increased hydroclimatic intensity as a robust integrated response to global warming, implying increasing risk of dry and wet extremes and providing a potential target for detection and attribution of hydroclimatic changes.

Giorgi, F.; Coppola, E.; Soon, E. I.; Diffenbaugh, N.; Gao, X. J.; Mariotti, L.; Shi, Y.

2012-04-01

78

Global Warming Molecules: Fluorinated Compounds  

Microsoft Academic Search

Two important properties quantitating the ability of a molecule to perturb global climate is the ability of the molecule to absorb infrared radiation in the atmospheric window (radiative forcing) and the amount of time that the molecule is in the atmosphere absorbing (atmospheric lifetime). Species in the atmosphere differ markedly in their ability to absorb infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases absorb

Timothy Lee; Joseph Francisco

2004-01-01

79

Global warming and nuclear power  

Microsoft Academic Search

Nuclear fission power reactors represent a potential solution to many aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth`s atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high-grade heat for large-scale electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-energizing around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates; importantly, electricity

Wood

1998-01-01

80

An apparent hiatus in global warming?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global warming first became evident beyond the bounds of natural variability in the 1970s, but increases in global mean surface temperatures have stalled in the 2000s. Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, create an energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) even as the planet warms to adjust to this imbalance, which is estimated to be 0.5-1 W m-2 over the 2000s. Annual global fluctuations in TOA energy of up to 0.2 W m-2 occur from natural variations in clouds, aerosols, and changes in the Sun. At times of major volcanic eruptions the effects can be much larger. Yet global mean surface temperatures fluctuate much more than these can account for. An energy imbalance is manifested not just as surface atmospheric or ground warming but also as melting sea and land ice, and heating of the oceans. More than 90% of the heat goes into the oceans and, with melting land ice, causes sea level to rise. For the past decade, more than 30% of the heat has apparently penetrated below 700 m depth that is traceable to changes in surface winds mainly over the Pacific in association with a switch to a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1999. Surface warming was much more in evidence during the 1976-1998 positive phase of the PDO, suggesting that natural decadal variability modulates the rate of change of global surface temperatures while sea-level rise is more relentless. Global warming has not stopped; it is merely manifested in different ways.

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.

2013-12-01

81

Communicating the Dangers of Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

So far, in my opinion, we scientists have not done a good job of communicating the imminent threat posed by global warming, yet I believe there is still time for that if we work efficiently now to overcome existing obstacles. Several of those obstacles are illustrated by contrasting the roles of scientists, the media, special interests, politicians and the public

J. E. Hansen

2006-01-01

82

Global warming -- Science and anti-science  

Microsoft Academic Search

The global warming debate has sparked many facts activities in almost all sectors of human endeavors. There are the hard facts, the measurements of the greenhouse gases, the statistics of human activities responsible for emissions, the demographic figures. There are the soft facts, the interpretations of the hard facts requiring additional assumptions. There are the media, the press, television, for

Preining

1995-01-01

83

Global Warming Advocacy Science: a Cross Examination  

Microsoft Academic Search

Legal scholarship has come to accept as true the various pronouncements of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other scientists who have been active in the movement for greenhouse gas (ghg) emission reductions to combat global warming. The only criticism that legal scholars have had of the story told by this group of activist scientists – what may

Jason S Johnston

2010-01-01

84

Global-Warming: A National Security Issue.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The waters in the Canadian Arctic are quickly becoming free to navigate due to global warming. International shipping bombards the region, the United States and Canada must be ready to face the security implications that will arise. A failure to do so may...

A. J. Klug

2006-01-01

85

Global warming and extreme storm surges  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

I will show empirical evidence for how global warming has changed extreme storm surge statistics for different regions in the world. Are there any detectable changes beyond what we expect from sea level rise. What does this suggest about the future of hurricane surges such as from hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy?

Grinsted, Aslak

2013-04-01

86

Contributions to Global Warming Map  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This Web site comes from the World Resources Institute, "an environmental think tank that goes beyond research to find practical ways to protect the earth and improve people's lives." The site contains a map of the relative contribution of carbon dioxide emissions of different geographic areas, and is offered as part of WRI's Global Topics: Climate Change and Energy. The map, which depicts emissions from 1900-99 to reflect the estimated residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere, can be downloaded. The site also includes a table of the top CO2-producing countries and links to the data sources used to create the map.

87

Phenology and global warming research in Brazil  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A recent review on South American phenology research has shown an increase in phenology papers over the last two decades, especially in this new 21st century. Nevertheless, there is a lack of long term data sets or monitoring systems, or of papers addressing plant phenology and global warming. The IPCC AR4 report from 2007 has offered indisputable evidence of regional to global-scale change in seasonality, but it is supported by plant and animal phenological data from North Hemisphere and temperate species. Information from tropical regions in general and South America in particular are sparse or lacking. Here I summarize the recent outcomes of our ongoing tropical phenology research in Brazil and its potential contribution to integrate fields and understand the effects of global warming within the tropics. The Phenology Laboratory (UNESP) is located at Rio Claro, São Paulo State, Southeastern Brazil. We are looking for trends and shifts on tropical vegetation phenology, and are exploring different methods for collecting and analyzing phenology data. The phenological studies are developed in collaboration with graduate and undergraduate students, post-docs and researchers from Brazil and around the world. We established three long term monitoring programs on Southeastern Brazil from 2000 onwards: trees from an urban garden, semideciduous forest trees, and savanna cerrado woody vegetation, all based on direct weekly to monthly observation of marked plants. We have collected some discontinuous data from Atlantic rain forest trees ranging from 5 to 8 years long. I collaborate with the longest tropical wet forest phenology monitoring system in Central Amazon, and with another long term monitoring system on semi deciduous forest from South Brazil. All research programs aim, in the long run, to monitor and detect shifts on tropical plant phenology related to climatic changes. Our first preliminary findings suggest that: (i) flowering and leafing are more affected by changes on dry season length and severity, shifting on time and synchrony; (ii) shifts on fruiting are more subtle and related to seed dispersal mechanisms (animal, wind or others); (iii) forest edges and gaps, and distance from urban centers may influence tree phenology, stressing the synergic effect of fragmentation (among others) to global warming on tropical phenology; (iv) ground and satellite generated phenology patterns may not agree, deserving further and detailed research; (v) in situ environmental monitoring systems help to track changes on climate and correlate to ground phenology. Some important steps forward are: (i) to build a Brazilian Phenology Network, first based on a selection of national wide distributed species; (ii) to recover historical phenology data series from our herbarium collections and other sources; (iii) to integrate phenology to remote sensing; (iv) to stimulate more phenology long term monitoring programs and the integration across disciplines, advancing our knowledge of seasonal responses within tropics to long-term climate change.

Morellato, L. P. C.

2009-04-01

88

Going Local with Global Warming  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This self-paced tutorial investigates evidence for contemporary climate change by examining multi-year weather, statistical and anecdotal records obtained from several U.S. localities. Learners plot and identify trends in regional weather data, learn the difference between weather and climate, and explore the pedagogic advantages associated with learning about global climate change by examining regional data. Videos describing local phenological data of changing seasonality, data portals, an interview with NASA scientist, Dr. Eric Fetzer, and activities to adapt for middle and high school classrooms are included. Vocabulary are linked to a glossary. This is the third of ten professional development modules providing opportunities for teachers to learn about climate change through first-hand data exploration.

89

Global Warming Molecules: Fluorinated Compounds  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Two important properties quantitating the ability of a molecule to perturb global climate is the ability of the molecule to absorb infrared radiation in the atmospheric window (radiative forcing) and the amount of time that the molecule is in the atmosphere absorbing (atmospheric lifetime). Species in the atmosphere differ markedly in their ability to absorb infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases absorb terrestrial radiation in specific wavelength bands determined by the quantum mechanical properties of the specific molecule. In this talk we show that fluorinated compounds, including perfluorocarbons, possess all of the molecular requirements leading to vibrational bands that absorb in the atmospheric window and have very large IR intensities. Moreover, these compounds generally have long atmospheric lifetimes due to their low reactivity with OH radical.

Lee, Timothy; Francisco, Joseph

2004-03-01

90

Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The impacts of global warming on the environment, economy and society are presently receiving much attention by the international community. However, the extent to which anthropogenic factors are the main cause of global warming is still being debated. There are obviously large stakes associated with the validity of any theory since that will indicate what actions need to be taken to protect the human race's only home - Earth. Most studies of global warming have investigated the rates and quantities of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. In this paper, we focus on the Earth's carbon budget and the associated energy transfer between various components of the climate system. This research invokes some new concepts: (i) certain biochemical processes which strongly interact with geophysical processes in climate system; (ii) a hypothesis that internal processes in the oceans rather than in the atmosphere are at the center of global warming; (iii) chemical energy stored in biochemical processes can significantly affect ocean dynamics and therefore the climate system. Based on those concepts, we propose a new hypothesis for global warming. We also propose a revolutionary strategy to deal with global climate change and provide domestic energy security at the same time. Recent ocean exploration indicates that huge deposits of oceanic methane hydrate deposits exist on the seafloor on continental margins. Methane hydrate transforms into water and methane gas when it dissociates. So, this potentially could provide the United States with energy security if the technology for mining in the 200-mile EEZ is developed and is economically viable. Furthermore, methane hydrate is a relatively environmentally benign, clean fuel. Such technology would help industry reduce carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere, and thus reduce global warming by harnessing the energy from the deep sea.

Lai, C. A.

2004-12-01

91

Global warming: Science or politics? Part 2  

SciTech Connect

Supplementing the conclusion that ``there has been a discernible influence of human activity on global climate`` is a set of dire consequences to the globe and human population. One consequence is the spread of tropical diseases. It has not been concluded whether the spread of disease is due to global conditions or to opening of tropical forests to commerce, allowing spread by travelers. Whether these forecasts abet the claimed relation of human activity to global warming, they are not a new phenomenon. In the space of several decades, dire consequences have been forecast in three sectors: natural resource consumption, energy resources and environmental fate. These three areas are reviewed.

Dorweiler, V.P. [Michigan Technological Univ., Houghton, MI (United States)

1998-05-01

92

National contributions to observed global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

There is considerable interest in identifying national contributions to global warming as a way of allocating historical responsibility for observed climate change. This task is made difficult by uncertainty associated with national estimates of historical emissions, as well as by difficulty in estimating the climate response to emissions of gases with widely varying atmospheric lifetimes. Here, we present a new estimate of national contributions to observed climate warming, including CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change, as well as methane, nitrous oxide and sulfate aerosol emissions While some countries’ warming contributions are reasonably well defined by fossil fuel CO2 emissions, many countries have dominant contributions from land-use CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, emphasizing the importance of both deforestation and agriculture as components of a country’s contribution to climate warming. Furthermore, because of their short atmospheric lifetime, recent sulfate aerosol emissions have a large impact on a country’s current climate contribution We show also that there are vast disparities in both total and per-capita climate contributions among countries, and that across most developed countries, per-capita contributions are not currently consistent with attempts to restrict global temperature change to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures.

Damon Matthews, H.; Graham, Tanya L.; Keverian, Serge; Lamontagne, Cassandra; Seto, Donny; Smith, Trevor J.

2014-01-01

93

Global warming and global dioxide emission: An empirical study  

SciTech Connect

In this paper, the dynamic relationship between global surface temperature (global warming) and global carbon dioxide emission (CO{sub 2}) is modelled and analyzed by causality and spectral analysis in the time domain and frequency domain, respectively. Historical data of global CO{sub 2} emission and global surface temperature anomalies over 129 years from 1860-1988 are used in this study. The causal relationship between the two phenomena is first examined using the Sim and Granger causality test in the time domain after the data series are filtered by ARIMA models. The Granger causal relationship is further scrutinized and confirmed by cross-spectral and multichannel spectral analysis in the frequency domain. The evidence found from both analyses proves that there is a positive causal relationship between the two variables. The time domain analysis suggests that Granger causality exists between global surface temperature and global CO{sub 2} emission. Further, CO{sub 2} emission causes the change in temperature. The conclusions are further confirmed by the frequency domain analysis, which indicates that the increase in CO{sub 2} emission causes climate warming because a high coherence exists between the two variables. Furthermore, it is proved that climate changes happen after an increase in CO{sub 2} emission, which confirms that the increase in CO{sub 2} emission does cause global warming. 27 refs., 10 figs., 5 tabs.

Linyan Sun [Xian Jiaotong Univ., Shaanxi (China); Wang, M. [Saint Mary`s Univ., Halifax, Nova Scotia (Canada)

1996-04-01

94

Mitigating The Rate and Extent of Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Mitigation, in the sense of slowing the rate of CO2 emission, can reduce the rate of rise of CO2 and global warming and limit peak CO2 concentration and global warm- ing. However, it will have little effect on the near steady state CO2 concentration and corresponding global warming achieved on a millennial timescale once emissions are negligible and the added

T. Lenton; M. Cannell

2002-01-01

95

Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.  

PubMed

Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions. PMID:23676754

Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

2013-05-16

96

Robust warming of the global upper ocean.  

PubMed

A large ( approximately 10(23) J) multi-decadal globally averaged warming signal in the upper 300 m of the world's oceans was reported roughly a decade ago and is attributed to warming associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The majority of the Earth's total energy uptake during recent decades has occurred in the upper ocean, but the underlying uncertainties in ocean warming are unclear, limiting our ability to assess closure of sea-level budgets, the global radiation imbalance and climate models. For example, several teams have recently produced different multi-year estimates of the annually averaged global integral of upper-ocean heat content anomalies (hereafter OHCA curves) or, equivalently, the thermosteric sea-level rise. Patterns of interannual variability, in particular, differ among methods. Here we examine several sources of uncertainty that contribute to differences among OHCA curves from 1993 to 2008, focusing on the difficulties of correcting biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data. XBT data constitute the majority of the in situ measurements of upper-ocean heat content from 1967 to 2002, and we find that the uncertainty due to choice of XBT bias correction dominates among-method variability in OHCA curves during our 1993-2008 study period. Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, a composite of several OHCA curves using different XBT bias corrections still yields a statistically significant linear warming trend for 1993-2008 of 0.64 W m(-2) (calculated for the Earth's entire surface area), with a 90-per-cent confidence interval of 0.53-0.75 W m(-2). PMID:20485432

Lyman, John M; Good, Simon A; Gouretski, Viktor V; Ishii, Masayoshi; Johnson, Gregory C; Palmer, Matthew D; Smith, Doug M; Willis, Josh K

2010-05-20

97

Effect of outdoor temperature, heat primes and anchoring on belief in global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

It is generally acknowledged that global warming is occurring, yet estimates of future climate change vary widely. Given this uncertainty, when asked about climate change, it is likely that people’s judgments may be affected by heuristics and accessible schemas. Three studies evaluated this proposition. Study 1 revealed a significant positive correlation between the outdoor temperature and beliefs in global warming.

Jeff Joireman; Heather Barnes Truelove; Blythe Duell

2010-01-01

98

Earth's surface fluid variations and deformations from GPS and GRACE in global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global warming is affecting our Earth's environment. For example, sea level is rising with thermal expansion of water and fresh water input from the melting of continental ice sheets due to human-induced global warming. However, observing and modeling Earth's surface change has larger uncertainties in the changing rate and the scale and distribution of impacts due to the lack of

Shuanggen Jin; Liangjing Zhang; Guiping Feng

2011-01-01

99

Will Melting Ice Caps Increase Global Warming?  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this hands-on activity, students will test one aspect of a theory that reduction in the polar caps will speed global warming. They simulate a polar region with pans of water, one painted white to represent a glacier, and one painted black or blue to represent the same area after the ice has melted. They place the covered pans in the sun with water in the bottom, and measure and compare the temperature of the water in the two pans over time. A thermometer is needed in the investigation. The investigation is supported by the textbook, Climate Change, part of Global System Science, an interdisciplinary course for high school students that emphasizes how scientists from a wide variety of fields work together to understand significant problems of global impact.

100

Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability.  

PubMed

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC, including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe, including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions. (i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming, and if so by how much? (ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely? Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However, there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however, some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual, modelling and observational uncertainties, but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future. PMID:14558904

Wood, Richard A; Vellinga, Michael; Thorpe, Robert

2003-09-15

101

Indentifying the Molecular Origin of Global Warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Indentifying the Molecular Origin of Global Warming Partha P. Bera, Joseph S. Francisco and Timothy J. Lee NASA Ames Research Center, Space Science and Astrobiology Division, Moffett Field, California 94035, and Department of Chemistry and Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907-1393 Abstract The physical characteristics of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have been investigated to assess which properties are most important in determining the radiative efficiency of a GHG. Chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluoroethers, fluoroethers, nitrogen fluorides, and various other known atmospheric trace molecules have been included in this study. Compounds containing the halogens F or Cl have in common very polar X-F or X-Cl bonds, particularly the X-F bonds. It is shown that as more F atoms bond to the same central atom, the bond dipoles become larger as a result of the central carbon atom becoming more positive. This leads to a linear increase in the total or integrated X-F bond dipole derivatives for the molecule, which leads to a non-linear (quadratic) increase in infrared (IR) intensity. Moreover, virtually all of the X-F bond stretches occur in the atmospheric IR window as opposed to X-H stretches, which do not occur in the atmospheric window. It is concluded that molecules possessing several F atoms will always have a large radiative forcing parameter in the calculation of their global warming potential. Some of the implications for global warming and climate change and a new design strategy for more environmentally friendly industrial materials from a molecular quantum chemistry perspective will be discussed.

Bera, P. P.; Lee, T. J.; Francisco, J.

2009-12-01

102

Punishments and Prizes for Explaining Global Warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Some few gifted scientists, the late Carl Sagan being an iconic example, are superbly skilled at communicating science clearly and compellingly to non-scientists. Most scientists, however, have serious shortcomings as communicators. The common failings include being verbose, addicted to jargon, caveat- obsessed and focused on details. In addition, it is far easier for a scientist to scoff at the scientific illiteracy of modern society than to work at understanding the viewpoints and concerns of journalists, policymakers and the public. Obstacles await even those scientists with the desire and the talent to communicate science well. Peer pressure and career disincentives can act as powerful deterrents, discouraging especially younger scientists from spending time on non-traditional activities. Scientists often lack mentors and role models to help them develop skills in science communication. Journalists also face real difficulties in getting science stories approved by editors and other gatekeepers. Climate change science brings its own problems in communication. The science itself is unusually wide- ranging and complex. The contentious policies and politics of dealing with global warming are difficult to disentangle from the science. Misinformation and disinformation about climate change are widespread. Intimidation and censorship of scientists by some employers is a serious problem. Polls show that global warming ranks low on the public's list of important issues. Despite all the obstacles, communicating climate change science well is critically important today. It is an art that can be learned and that brings its own rewards and satisfactions. Academic institutions and research funding agencies increasingly value outreach by scientists, and they provide resources to facilitate it. Society needs scientists who can clearly and authoritatively explain the science of global warming and its implications, while remaining objective and policy-neutral. This need will only increase in coming years as climate change makes the transition from a topic of limited public interest to one of great concern to all society.

Somerville, R. C.

2006-12-01

103

Separating Contributions from Anthropogenic Warming and from Natural Oscillations to Global Warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

During the past five decades, global air temperatures have been warming at a rather high rate (IPCC-2013) resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in field data sampling and model simulations and affects both air temperatures over land and over the ocean. However, the warming rate changes with time and this has led to question the causes underlying the observed trends. Here, we analyze recent measured and modeled data on global mean surface air temperature anomalies (GMTA) covering the last 160 years using spectral techniques. The spectral analysis of the measured data does show a strong secular trend (ST) and a clear multidecadal sinusoidal oscillation (MDV) that resembles the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The observed acceleration of the warming during the period from 1970 to 2000 therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming (~60%) with the positive phase of a multidecadal oscillation (~40%), while the recent slowdown (hiatus) of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the MDV phase. It has been proposed that this change in the MDV phase could mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades and our analysis indicates that this is quite likely, the current hiatus being already a manifestation of this phenomenon. Most current generation global circulation models (CMIP5) do not reproduce this MDV and are missing the actual temperature hiatus. Therefore, it is less likely that such models could correctly forecast the temperature evolution during the coming decades. We propose here to use the climate dynamics that is inherent in the GMTA data to forecast temperatures until 2100. These forecasts, based on the analyzed secular trend and the multidecadal oscillations are indeed capable of reproducing the actual hiatus and generally result, in comparison to CMIP5 forecasts, in much lower temperature increases for 2100 of only about 1oC. Global mean air temperatures could be even decreasing for the next 2-3 decades. Henceforth, for a correct assessment of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the global air temperatures in the future natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account.

Konrad Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa

2014-05-01

104

Identifying the Molecular Origin of Global Warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atmospheric measurements show that concentrations of several radiatively important gases, greenhouse gases, are changing and growing. Concern about the effects of these changes on climate has centered on carbon dioxide (CO2), because it is an important greenhouse gas, and because its atmospheric concentration is rapidly increasing. However, other gases have contributed to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere. The most important of these greenhouse gases are methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and halons. In this talk we will discuss the orgins of what molecular properties determine that a specific molecule will have a potentially large contribution to global warming.

Lee, Timothy; Francisco, Joseph

2004-03-01

105

Anthropogenic global warming threatens world cultural heritage  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Numerous cultural sites of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) world cultural Heritage are located in low-lying coastal regions. Because of anthropogenic global warming and induced sea level rise, many of these sites will be partially or totally flooded in the coming centuries/millennia. This is shown in a recent study by Marzeion and Levermann (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034001). Projecting future sea level rise and associated regional variability, these authors investigate which sites will be at risk. Because UNESCO cultural sites represent the common heritage of human beings and reflect the Earth and humanity history, they need to be protected for future generations.

Cazenave, Anny

2014-05-01

106

Vegetation feedback under future global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

It has been well documented that vegetation plays an important role in the climate system. However, vegetation is typically kept constant when climate models are used to project anthropogenic climate change under a range of emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Here, an atmospheric general circulation model, and an asynchronously coupled system of an atmospheric and an equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model are forced by monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for the periods 2051-2060 and 2090-2098 as projected with 17 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, and by appropriate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations under the A2 emission scenario. The effects of vegetation feedback under future global warming are then investigated. It is found that the simulated composition and distribution of vegetation during 2051-2060 (2090-2098) differ greatly from the present, and global vegetation tends to become denser as expressed by a 21% (36%) increase in global mean leaf area index, which is most pronounced at the middle and high northern latitudes. Vegetation feedback has little effect on globally averaged surface temperature. On a regional scale, however, it induces statistically significant changes in surface temperature, in particular over most parts of continental Eurasia east of about 60°E where annual surface temperature is expected to increase by 0.1-1.0 K, with an average of about 0.4 K for each future period. These changes can mostly be explained by changes in surface albedo resulting from vegetation changes in the context of future global warming.

Jiang, Dabang; Zhang, Ying; Lang, Xianmei

2011-11-01

107

The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming  

SciTech Connect

During the past three years we have conducted several studies using models and a combination of satellite data, in situ meteorological and oceanic data, and paleoclimate reconstructions, under the DoE program, Quantifying the Link Between Change in Radiative Balance and Atmospheric Temperature''. Our goals were to investigate effects of global cloudiness variations on global climate and their implications for cloud feedback and continue development and application of NYU transient climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by both the clouds and oceans. Our original research plan emphasized the use of cloud, surface temperature and ocean data sets interpreted by focused climate/ocean models to develop a cloud radiative forcing scenario for the past 100 years and to assess the transient climate response; to narrow key uncertainties in the system; and to identify those aspects of the climate system most likely to be affected by greenhouse warming over short, medium and long time scales.

Hoffert, M.I.

1992-12-01

108

Environmental refugees in a globally warmed world  

SciTech Connect

This paper examines the complex problem of environmental refugees as among the most serious of all the effects of global warming. Shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, and agricultural disruption from drought, soil erosion and desertification are factors now and in the future in creating a group of environmental refugees. Estimates are that at least 10 million such refugees exist today. A preliminary analysis is presented here as a first attempt to understand the full character and extent of the problem. Countries with large delta and coastal areas and large populations are at particular risk from sea-level rise of as little as .5 - 1 meter, compounded by storm surge and salt water intrusions. Bangladesh, Egypt, China, and India are discussed in detail along with Island states at risk. Other global warming effects such as shifts in monsoon systems and severe and persistent droughts make agriculture particularly vulnerable. Lack of soil moisture is during the growing season will probably be the primary problem. Additional and compounding environmental problems are discussed, and an overview of the economic, sociocultural and political consequences is given. 96 refs., 1 tab.

Myers, N.

1993-12-01

109

Does Global Warming Influence Tornado Activity?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tornadoes and other severe thunderstorm phenomena frequently cause as much annual property damage in the United States as do hurricanes, and often cause more fatalities (see http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml). In 2008, there were 2176 preliminary tornado reports logged through mid-December, with 1600 ``actual counts'' (duplicate reports removed) through September, the highest total in the past half century (Figure 1). The mass media have covered these events extensively, and experts have been deluged with requests for explanations, including possible links to anthropogenic global warming. Although recent research has yielded insight into the connections between global warming and tornado and severe thunderstorm forcing, these relationships remain mostly unexplored, largely because of the challenges in observing and numerically simulating tornadoes. Indeed, a number of questions that have been answered for other climate-related phenomena remain particularly difficult for climate and severe weather scientists, including whether there are detectable trends in tornado occurrence and if so, what causes them. This article explores the challenges and opportunities in pursuing these areas of research.

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Trapp, Robert J.; Brooks, Harold

2008-12-01

110

Identifying the Molecular Origin of Global Warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We have investigated the physical characteristics of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to assess which properties are most important in determining the efficiency of a GHG. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), nitrogen fluorides, and various other known atmospheric trace molecules have been included in this study. Compounds containing the halogens F or Cl have in common very polar X-F or X-Cl bonds, particularly the X-F bonds. It is shown that as more F atoms bond to the same central atom the bond dipoles become larger as a result of the central atom becoming more positive. This leads to a linear increase in the total or integrated X-F bond dipole derivatives for the molecule, which leads to a nonlinear (quadratic) increase in infrared (IR) intensity. Moreover, virtually all of the X-F bond stretches occur in the atmospheric IR window as opposed to X-H stretches, which do not occur in the atmospheric window. It is concluded that molecules possessing several F atoms will always have a large radiative forcing parameter in the calculation of their global warming potential. Some of the implications for global warming and climate change are discussed.

Bera, Partha P.; Francisco, Joseph S.; Lee, Timothy J.

2009-08-01

111

Global warming and cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms.  

PubMed

The Earth and the oceans have warmed significantly over the past four decades, providing evidence that the Earth is undergoing long-term climate change. Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns have been documented. Cyanobacteria have a long evolutionary history, with their first occurrence dating back at least 2.7 billion years ago. Cyanobacteria often dominated the oceans after past mass extinction events. They evolved under anoxic conditions and are well adapted to environmental stress including exposure to UV, high solar radiation and temperatures, scarce and abundant nutrients. These environmental conditions favor the dominance of cyanobacteria in many aquatic habitats, from freshwater to marine ecosystems. A few studies have examined the ecological consequences of global warming on cyanobacteria and other phytoplankton over the past decades in freshwater, estuarine, and marine environments, with varying results. The responses of cyanobacteria to changing environmental patterns associated with global climate change are important subjects for future research. Results of this research will have ecological and biogeochemical significance as well as management implications. PMID:18461772

Paul, Valerie J

2008-01-01

112

Global Warming: The Threat to the Planet  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paleoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the `albedo flip' property of water substance, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that `flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Ice sheet and ocean inertia provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. CO2 is the largest human-made climate forcing, but CH4, O3, N2O and black carbon (BC) are important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could still ``save the Arctic,'' while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and the global environment.

Hansen, James

2007-04-01

113

Trends in global warming and evolution of nucleoproteins from influenza A viruses since 1918.  

PubMed

Global warming affects not only the environment where we live, but also all living species to different degree, including influenza A virus. We recently conducted several studies on the possible impact of global warming on the protein families of influenza A virus. More studies are needed in order to have a full picture of the impact of global warming on living organisms, especially its effect on viruses. In this study, we correlate trends in global warming with evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus and then analyse the trends with respect to northern/southern hemispheres, virus subtypes and sampling species. The results suggest that global warming may have an impact on the evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus. PMID:20825589

Yan, S; Wu, G

2010-12-01

114

Global warming and changes in ocean circulation  

SciTech Connect

This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

1998-02-01

115

Global Warming Education for Astro 101 Classes  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The AAS Sustainability Committee (SC) aims to reduce the ecological footprint of the AAS. The SC has identified three major areas of concern on which to focus for the coming year: (1) AAS Meetings, which are energy-intensive because of their associated travel, lodging, and conference center needs; (2) other travel, including to observing runs, team meetings, and conferences -- some of that travel could reasonably be replaced with teleconferencing options, which we are exploring; and (3) education. There will be a special session at this meeting devoted to helping astronomy professors include global warming in their Astro 101 classes. Several seasoned educators will share their tips and provide online resources such as PowerPoint slides and figures on climate change.

Lowenthal, James D.; Guinan, E. F.; Knezek, P.; Lacy, J. H.; Marshall, P. J.; Rodgers, B.; Rykoff, E.; Sheth, K.

2012-01-01

116

Global Warming: The Complete Briefing (Third Edition)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

"What kind of world will our grandchildren inherit?” prods the large, yellow bullet point jumping out from the black background on the back cover of John Houghton's already classic textbook, Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. Students in an undergraduate or first year graduate seminar course—the clear target audience for this book—will come away with little doubt about the answer to this question: a warmer one.Essentially, this is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process distilled into a textbook. The first seven chapters, about two thirds of the book's 350 pages, provide a compelling account of the consensus IPCC view of the greenhouse effect, climate variability, climate modeling, climate projections, and the impacts of climate change. These chapters are without doubt the core strength of this excellent textbook, synthesizing an unprecedented two decades of community effort, scientific cooperation, and consensus building into a coherent view.

Alverson, Keith

117

The Water Cycle and Global Warming  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Baylor University College of Medicine continues to work at a furious pace on their delightful BioEd Online site, and educators everywhere love them for their work and dedication. Recently, they placed this ââ¬ÃÂready-to-goââˆlessson on the water cycle and global warming online, and itâ≢s a true delight. As with the other lessons in this series, the materials here include a brief description of the lessonâ≢s objective, along with information on the intended audience, the materials required to complete the lesson, and so on. Teachers will note that they will need to download a slide set, several activity sheets, and a ââ¬ÃÂState of the Climate Reportââˆoffered from the National Climatic Data Center.

118

Global warming and changes in drought  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Several recently published studies have produced apparently conflicting results of how drought is changing under climate change. The reason is thought to lie in the formulation of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the data sets used to determine the evapotranspiration component. Here, we make an assessment of the issues with the PDSI in which several other sources of discrepancy emerge, not least how precipitation has changed and is analysed. As well as an improvement in the precipitation data available, accurate attribution of the causes of drought requires accounting for natural variability, especially El Niño/Southern Oscillation effects, owing to the predilection for wetter land during La Niña events. Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts but it is expected that when droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense.

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Dai, Aiguo; van der Schrier, Gerard; Jones, Philip D.; Barichivich, Jonathan; Briffa, Keith R.; Sheffield, Justin

2014-01-01

119

Are Claims of Global Warming Being Suppressed?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Over the last few years, I have heard many rumors that climate science relevant to the global warming discussion is being suppressed by the Bush Administration. One cannot do much about third-hand information. However, on 29 January, the New York Times published a front page article on NASA efforts to suppress statements about global warming by James Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. A claim by one government scientist, though, no matter how distinguished, still requires examples from other scientists before a general conclusion can be drawn about the overall scope of the problem. But if the charges are more widespread, then some government scientists might be reluctant to make such claims, because they might feel that their positions were jeopardized. Therefore, an alternate way may be needed to determine the scope of the issue, while still safeguarding government workers from possible retaliation. -On 30 January, Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R-N.Y.), chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, wrote a letter to NASA Administrator Michael Griffin addressing many of the concerns Crowley has raised. Boehlert wrote,``It ought to go without saying that government scientists must be free to describe their scientific conclusions and the implications of those conclusions to their fellow scientists, policymakers and the general public.'' He continued,``Good science cannot long persist in an atmosphere of intimidation. Political figures ought to be reviewing their public statements to make sure they are consistent with the best available science; scientists should not be reviewing their statements to make sure they are consistent with the current political orthodoxy.'' I commend Rep. Boehlert for his quick and clear statement of the importance of unfettered communication of science. -FRED SPILHAUS, Editor

Crowley, Thomas J.

2006-02-01

120

Climate projection: Refining global warming projections  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Accurately determining the warming associated with scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions remains an overarching aim of climate modelling. Research now shows that contemporary measurements significantly reduce uncertainty bounds and indicate that some more extreme warming predictions may be less likely.

Huntingford, Chris

2013-08-01

121

Global Warming and Water Management: Water Allocation and Project Evaluation  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper explores the sensitivity of the benefits of alternative water allocation schemes and of project evaluation to global warming. If global warming shifts the mean of annual water supplies, there could be large impacts on the expected values of alternative water allocation schemes. The first section of the paper explores how well alternative schemes (such as market mechanisms, prior

Robert Mendelsohn; Lynne L. Bennett

1997-01-01

122

Geoeconomic time and global warming: renewable energy and conservation policy  

Microsoft Academic Search

The concept of geoeconomic time, introduced here, is based on the interface among economic activity, technology, and geophysical processes. Geoeconomic time is what should frame economic analysis of global warming policy. Otherwise, the analysis will be flawed. Application of geoeconomic time to global warming has two parts. The first is the future time frame for projecting impacts on the earth.

Darwin C. Hall

1996-01-01

123

Strategic information acquisition and the mitigation of global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

We consider the strategic role of uncertainty and information acquisition for the mitigation of global warming. Before the countries decide on their contribution to a mitigation of global warming, they may invest in information about the country-specific benefit of reductions of the emissions of greenhouse gases. We show that information acquisition has a substantial strategic value. Countries may prefer not

Florian Morath

2010-01-01

124

Wind energy — An innovative solution to global warming?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Now a days global warming has become a threat to every individual. One of the main causes of global warming is carbon dioxide emissions. One source of carbon dioxide is the burning of fossil fuels to produce electricity from power plants. Burning of gasoline in vehicles and airplanes also contributes to large amounts of carbon dioxide being released into the

S. Pal

2009-01-01

125

Good enough tools for global warming policy making  

Microsoft Academic Search

We present a simple analysis of the global warming problem caused by the emissions of CO2 (a major greenhouse gas) into the atmosphere resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. We provide quantitative tools which enable policymakers and interested citizens to explore the following issues central to the global warming problem. (i) At what rate are we permitted to continue

R. H. Socolow; S. H. Lam

2007-01-01

126

Global crop yield losses from recent warming  

SciTech Connect

Global yields of the world-s six most widely grown crops--wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, sorghum--have increased since 1961. Year-to-year variations in growing season minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation explain 30% or more of the variations in yield. Since 1991, climate trends have significantly decreased yield trends in all crops but rice, leading to foregone production since 1981 of about 12 million tons per year of wheat or maize, representing an annual economic loss of $1.2 to $1.7 billion. At the global scale, negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields are already apparent. Annual global temperatures have increased by {approx}0.4 C since 1980, with even larger changes observed in several regions (1). While many studies have considered the impacts of future climate changes on food production (2-5), the effects of these past changes on agriculture remain unclear. It is likely that warming has improved yields in some areas, reduced them in others, and had negligible impacts in still others; the relative balance of these effects at the global scale is unknown. An understanding of this balance would help to anticipate impacts of future climate changes, as well as to more accurately assess recent (and thereby project future) technologically driven yield progress. Separating the contribution of climate from concurrent changes in other factors--such as crop cultivars, management practices, soil quality, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) levels--requires models that describe the response of yields to climate. Studies of future global impacts of climate change have typically relied on a bottom-up approach, whereby field scale, process-based models are applied to hundreds of representative sites and then averaged (e.g., ref 2). Such approaches require input data on soil and management conditions, which are often difficult to obtain. Limitations on data quality or quantity can thus limit the utility of this approach, especially at the local scale (6-8). At the global scale, however, many of the processes and impacts captured by field scale models will tend to cancel out, and therefore simpler empirical/statistical models with fewer input requirements may be as accurate (8, 9). Empirical/statistical models also allow the effects of poorly modeled processes (e.g., pest dynamics) to be captured and uncertainties to be readily quantified (10). Here we develop new, empirical/statistical models of global yield responses to climate using datasets on broad-scale yields, crop locations, and climate variability. We focus on global average yields for the six most widely grown crops in the world: wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, and sorghum. Production of these crops accounts for over 40% of global cropland area (11). 55% of non-meat calories, and over 70% of animal feed (12).

Lobell, D; Field, C

2006-06-02

127

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

Hansen, James E.

2000-01-01

128

Solar Activity and Global Warming Revisited  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

While in general the changes in surface air temperature follow the changes in solar activity proving the solar influences on climate, in the last few decades solar activity has remained more or less constant while temperature has continued increasing which is a strong argument in favor of anthropogenic influences on climate. In the same period the correlation between solar and geomagnetic activity has decreased, both in the 11-year cycle and on secular time scale. The solar activity index commonly used for long-term studies is the sunspot number as it has the longest data record. But sunspots reflect only the solar activity originating from closed magnetic field regions. The regions of open magnetic field - coronal holes, sources of high speed solar wind and drivers of recurrent geomagnetic activity, are not accounted for in the sunspot index. It appears that in the last decades the impact of coronal holes has increased which can be explained by the increasing tilt of the heliospheric current sheet. This increased tilt means that the Earth encounters two high speed streams from coronal holes per solar rotation and higher geomagnetic activity. On the other hand, the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet is related to the galactic cosmic rays modulation, and galactic cosmic rays are considered key agents mediating solar activity influences on terrestrial temperature. Therefore, using the sunspot number alone as a measure of solar activity leads to the underestimation of the role of solar activity for the global warming in the recent decades.

Georgieva, K.; Kirov, B.

2006-03-01

129

Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases.

Massad, Eduardo; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; da Silva, Daniel Rodrigues

2011-06-01

130

Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.  

PubMed

In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03), research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed, and I hope that, by treating just the most significant aspects of the research, this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular, while most of CFK03 remains current, there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem, but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved, and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1,000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that, while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations, it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter century or so. However, this conclusion is being challenged by differing interpretations of satellite observations of Total Solar Insolation (TSI). Different satellites give different estimates of TSI during the 1996-7 solar activity minimum. A recent study using the larger TSI satellite interpretation indicates a stronger role for the sun, and until there is agreement on TSI at solar minimum, we caution completely disregarding the sun as a significant factor in recent warming. Computer models continue to improve and, while they still do not do a satisfactory job of predicting regional changes, their simulations of global aspects of climate change and of individual forcings are increasingly reliable. In addition to these four areas, the past five years have seen advances in our understanding of many other aspects of climate change--from albedo changes due to land use to the dynamics of glacier movement. However, these more are of second order importance and will only be treated very briefly. The big news since CFK03 is the first of these, the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion, namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking, this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that, if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so, then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further, the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions. Thus, while uncertainties still remain, we are now seeing a coherent picture in which past climate variations, solar and other forcings, model predictions and other indicators such as glacier recession all point to a human-induced warming that needs to be considered carefully. A final topic touched

Keller, Charles F

2007-01-01

131

Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Since both greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds strongly affect outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with no affect or less affect on solar radiation, respectively, an attempt to delay global warming to buy time for emission reduction strategies to work might naturally target cirrus clouds. Cirrus having optical depths < 3.6 cover 13% of the globe and have a net warming effect on climate, with the coldest cirrus having the strongest warming effect. Roughly 2/3 of predicted global warming is due to the feedback effect of water vapor and clouds from an initial greenhouse gas forcing, and a recent study indicates water vapor and clouds in the upper troposphere (UT) have the greatest impact on climate sensitivity (the equilibrium response of global-mean surface temperature to a CO2 doubling). Thus altering UT water vapor and cirrus may be a good strategy for climate engineering. Cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing via GCM simulations are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). This cirrus engineered net forcing is due to (1) reduced cirrus coverage and (2) reduced upper tropospheric water vapor, due to enhanced ice sedimentation. The implementation of this climate engineering could use the airline industry to disperse the seeding material. Commercial airliners typically fly at temperatures between -40 and -60 deg. C (where homogeneous freezing nucleation dominates). Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The seeding material could be released in both clear and cloudy conditions to build up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei so that non-contrail cirrus will experience these nuclei and grow larger ice crystals. Flight corridors are denser in the high- and mid-latitudes where global warming is more severe. A risk with any geoengineering experiment is that it could affect climate in unforeseen ways, causing more harm than good. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are 1-2 weeks, the climate might return back to its normal state within a few months after stopping the geoengineering. A drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It may not have many of the draw-backs that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has, such as ozone destruction, decreased solar radiation possibly altering the hydrological cycle with more frequent droughts, greater expense, the creation of a white sky and less solar energy. In addition, modeling studies indicate it would take at least 3 years for the climate system to return to “normal” upon termination of stratospheric geoengineering.

Mitchell, D. L.

2009-12-01

132

The European climate under a 2?°C global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A global warming of 2?°C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2?°C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North-South (West-East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity.

Vautard, Robert; Gobiet, Andreas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Watkiss, Paul; Mendlik, Thomas; Landgren, Oskar; Nikulin, Grigory; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

2014-03-01

133

Energy and global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies  

Microsoft Academic Search

The primary objective of this study is to develop representative indications of the relative energy use, associated COâ emissions, and total equivalent warming impact (TEWI) of viable options to replace CFCs in their major energy-related application areas. It was motivated, in part, by a concern that most attention to date has focused on the DIRECT global warming effect of CFC`s

S. K. Fischer; P. J. Hughes; P. D. Fairchild; C. L. Kusik; J. T. Dieckmann; E. M. McMahon; N. Hobday

1991-01-01

134

Energy and global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies  

Microsoft Academic Search

The primary objective of this study is to develop representative indications of the relative energy use, associated COâ emissions, and total equivalent warming impact (TEWI) of viable options to replace CFCs in their major energy-related application areas. It was motivated, in part, by a concern that most attention to date has focused on the DIRECT global warming effect of CFC's

S. K. Fischer; P. J. Hughes; P. D. Fairchild; C. L. Kusik; J. T. Dieckmann; E. M. McMahon; N. Hobday

1991-01-01

135

Global warming: it's not only size that matters  

Microsoft Academic Search

Observed and model simulated warming is particularly large in high latitudes, and hence the Arctic is often seen as the posterchild of vulnerability to global warming. However, Mahlstein et al (2011) point out that the signal of climate change is emerging locally from that of climate variability earliest in regions of low climate variability, based on climate model data, and

Gabriele C. Hegerl

2011-01-01

136

Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative  

Microsoft Academic Search

The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of

G. T. Stone

2006-01-01

137

Energy and global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies  

Microsoft Academic Search

The primary objective of this study is to develop representative indications of the relative energy use, associated COâ emissions, and total equivalent warming impact (TEWI) of viable option to replace CFCs in their major energy-related application areas. It was motivated, in part, by a concern that most attention to data has focused on the DIRECT global warming effect of CFCs

S. K. Fischer; P. J. Hughes; P. D. Fairchild; C. L. Kusik; J. T. Dieckmann; E. M. McMahon; N. Hobday

1991-01-01

138

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning,...

J. E. Hansen M. Sato R. Ruedy A. Lacis V. Oinas

2000-01-01

139

EPA's Scenarios for Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

While it is not possible to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations immediately, a global commitment to reducing emissions would decrease the risks of global warming regardless of uncertainties about the response of the climate system. Scenario analyses conducted by EPA for a Report to Congress on Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate indicate that if no policies to limit greenhouse gas

Daniel A. Lashof

1991-01-01

140

The role of emotion in global warming policy support and opposition.  

PubMed

Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed. PMID:24219420

Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2014-05-01

141

American Generation of Environmental Warnings: Avian Influenza and Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Journalistic reporting of global warming and of avian influenza rose and fell nearly simultaneously in newspapers of the United States, Canada, Britain, Ireland, and Australia. Some international news peaks are reasonably interpreted as American- generated \\

Allan Mazur

142

Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Global warming has impacted the Arctic Ocean by significantly reducing the extent of the summer ice cover allowing greater access to the region. Greater access to the Arctic Ocean potentially threatens the United States' national interests in the region. ...

J. T. McCarthy

2009-01-01

143

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability.

Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Zwiers, Francis W.

2013-09-01

144

Can Iron-Enriched Oceans Thwart Global Warming?  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This article from National Geographic News addresses the possibility of adding iron to ocean systems in order to improve phytoplankton growth, which would remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and decrease global warming via increased photosynthesis.

Roach, John; News, National G.

145

Military implications of global warming. Strategy research project  

SciTech Connect

The 1998 National Security Strategy repeatedly cites global environmental issues as key to the long-term security of the United States. Similarly, US environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current US Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate change. It discusses related economic factors and environmental concerns. It assesses current White House policy as it relates to the US military. It reviews the Department of Defense strategy for energy conservation and reduction of greenhouse gases. Finally, it offers recommendations and options for military involvement to reduce global warming. Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the US military. As the United States leadership in environmental matters encourages global stability, the US military will be able to focus more on readiness and on military training and operations.

Greene, P.E.

1999-05-20

146

Plasma etching processes for the reduction of global warming emissions  

Microsoft Academic Search

A significant issue facing the semiconductor industry is the emissions of long lived global warming gases such as perfluorocarbons (PFCs) like CF4, C2F6, and C3F8 which are used for dielectric etch. In 1998, the Kyoto Protocol set quantitative targets on the reduction of global warming gases in the developed countries. Within the semiconductor industry, the World Semiconductor Council, representing the

R. Reif; R. Chatterjee; S. Karecki; L. Pruette

2000-01-01

147

Circular inter-dependencies and system of systems: an inter-disciplinary approach for modeling global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

The topic of Global Warming is at the forefront of scientific investigation and socio-political discussion. Research has shown human activities are directly related to Global Warming, and its affects do not discriminate as to region or population---every citizen of the world is touched either directly or indirectly by this phenomenon. Much research has been conducted to measure climate change in

Catherine M. Banks; John A. Sokolowski

2009-01-01

148

Upper Temperature Limits of Tropical Marine Ectotherms: Global Warming Implications  

PubMed Central

Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour?1, the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41–52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37–41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2–3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.

Nguyen, Khanh Dung T.; Morley, Simon A.; Lai, Chien-Houng; Clark, Melody S.; Tan, Koh Siang; Bates, Amanda E.; Peck, Lloyd S.

2011-01-01

149

Paleoanalogues of global warming in the 21st century  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

On the basis of landscape-climatic reconstructions for warming periods in the past, likely scenarios of future global warming have been developed for various warming levels that might be reached during the current century. The paleoanalogue of global warming by 0.7-1°C is the Holocene climatic optimum (5.5-6 ka B.P.) and that by 1.7-2°C is the last interglacial optimum (about 125 ka B.P.). The complex analysis concerning response of the principal ecosystem components to the expected warming signifies that there will not be any shifts of vegetation zones during the 21st century; reconstruction will touch only the internal structure of vegetable associations and broadening of interzonal ecotones.

Velichko, A. A.; Borisova, O. K.

2011-05-01

150

How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that a decrease in upwelling of old water from below is responsible for the change. Implications for global biological cycling are considered.

Gnanadesikan, A.; Russell, J. L.; Zeng, F.

2006-07-01

151

How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

Gnanadesikan, A.; Russell, J. L.; Zeng, Fanrong

2007-02-01

152

Physical aspects of the greenhouse effect and global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

According to the simplest model of the earth's radiative balance, global warming will occur with certainty as humankind increases its production and consumption of nonsolar energy. This prediction is revisited, using a broader model that allows the greenhouse effect to be considered. The new model predicts a global warming of ?TE=(114 K)?, where V is the rate of surface energy release in units of the average incident solar radiation, 342 W m-2, and ?TE is the average temperature rise at the earth's surface. Present values of these quantities, excluding geothermal sources, are V=0.69×10-4 and ?TE=7.9 mK. The model assigns a small number of optical parameters to the atmosphere and surface and qualifies the simple warming prediction: It is rigorous only if parameters other than V are unchanged. The model is not complex and should serve as an aid to an elementary understanding of global warming.

Knox, Robert S.

1999-12-01

153

Global warming, population growth, and natural resources for food production.  

PubMed

Destruction of forests and the considerable burning of fossil fuels is directly causing the level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases including methane, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere to rise. Population growth in the US and the world indirectly contributes to this global warming. This has led the majority of scientists interested in weather and climate to predict that the planet's temperature will increase from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. These forecasted climactic changes will most likely strongly affect crop production. Specifically these scientists expect the potential changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, and pests to decrease food production in North America. The degree of changes hinges on each crop and its environmental needs. If farmers begin using improved agricultural technology, the fall in crop yields can be somewhat counterbalanced. Even without global warming, however, agriculture in North America must embrace sensible ecological resource management practices such as conserving soil, water, energy, and biological resources. These sustainable agricultural practices would serve agriculture, farmers, the environment, and society. Agriculturalists, farmers, and society are already interested in sustainable agriculture. Still scientists must conduct more research on the multiple effects of potential global climate change on many different crops under various environmental conditions and on new technologies that farmers might use in agricultural production. We must cut down our consumption of fossil fuel, reduce deforestation, erase poverty, and protect our soil, water, and biological resources. The most important action we need to take, however, is to check population growth. PMID:12344889

Pimentel, D

1991-01-01

154

Soil Nutrient Responses to One Year of Simulated Global Warming and Nitrogen Deposition on the Songnen Meadow Steppes, Northeast China  

Microsoft Academic Search

Soil nutrient processes and functionalities play significant roles in affecting global changes. Herein, two key global change factors, warming and nitrogen deposition were used to examine the soil nutrient responses under simulated global change conditions on the Songnen meadow steppes of Northeastern China. Through onsite investigations and laboratory analysis, soil nutrient responses were evaluated under short-term simulated global changes as

Hu Liangjun; Yang Haijun; Wang Weiwei; Guo Jixun

2009-01-01

155

Global Warming and Extinctions of Endemic Species from Biodiversity Hotspots  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots.

JAY R. MALCOLM; CANRAN LIU; RONALD P. NEILSON; LARA HANSEN; LEE HANNAH

2006-01-01

156

Monitoring Global Climate Change: The Case of Greenhouse Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Recent record high temperatures and drought conditions in many regions of the United States have prompted heightened concern about whether these are early manifestations of the global green house warming projected by the major climate models. An improved global climate monitoring and reporting capability is urgently needed in order to ensure that interpretation of climate trends and comparison with model

Fred B. Wood

1990-01-01

157

Global warming. (Latest citations from the NTIS database). Published Search  

SciTech Connect

The bibliography contains citations concerning policies and general studies on global warming. Topics include the greenhouse effect, global climatic models, and climatic effects from combustion of fossil fuels. (Contains a minimum of 173 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

Not Available

1993-02-01

158

Uncertainties of global warming metrics: CO2 and CH4  

Microsoft Academic Search

We present a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainties in the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) of CH4, using a simple climate model calibrated to AOGCMs and coupled climate-carbon cycle models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In addition, we estimate uncertainties in these metrics probabilistically by using a method that does not rely on

Andy Reisinger; Malte Meinshausen; Martin Manning; Greg Bodeker

2010-01-01

159

Modification of Cirrus Clouds to Reduce Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

As far as we know, no studies have addressed the possibility of modifying cirrus clouds to reduce global warming. Here we explore this possibility and associated feasibility issues. To introduce this concept, some background information is needed. The effect of cirrus on climate can be quantified through their predicted impact on climate sensitivity, S (i.e. the equilibrium response of global-

D. L. Mitchell; P. J. Rasch

2008-01-01

160

Slowing global warming: benefits for patients and the planet.  

PubMed

Global warming will cause significant harm to the health of persons and their communities by compromising food and water supplies; increasing risks of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases and heat stress; changing social determinants of health resulting from extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and expanding flood plains; and worsening air quality, resulting in additional morbidity and mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Vulnerable populations such as children, older persons, persons living at or below the poverty level, and minorities will be affected earliest and greatest, but everyone likely will be affected at some point. Family physicians can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, stabilize the climate, and reduce the risks of climate change while also directly improving the health of their patients. Health interventions that have a beneficial effect on climate change include encouraging patients to reduce the amount of red meat in their diets and to replace some vehicular transportation with walking or bicycling. Patients are more likely to make such lifestyle changes if their physician asks them to and leads by example. Medical offices and hospitals can become more energy efficient by recycling, purchasing wind-generated electricity, and turning off appliances, computers, and lights when not in use. Moreover, physicians can play an important role in improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by advocating for enforcement of existing air quality regulations and working with local and national policy makers to further improve air quality standards, thereby improving the health of their patients and slowing global climate change. PMID:21842773

Parker, Cindy L

2011-08-01

161

Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This modelling study demonstrates at what level of global mean temperature rise (?Tg) regions will be exposed to significant decreases of freshwater availability and changes to terrestrial ecosystems. Projections are based on a new, consistent set of 152 climate scenarios (eight ?Tg trajectories reaching 1.5-5?° C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, each scaled with spatial patterns from 19 general circulation models). The results suggest that already at a ?Tg of 2?° C and mainly in the subtropics, higher water scarcity would occur in >50% out of the 19 climate scenarios. Substantial biogeochemical and vegetation structural changes would also occur at 2?° C, but mainly in subpolar and semiarid ecosystems. Other regions would be affected at higher ?Tg levels, with lower intensity or with lower confidence. In total, mean global warming levels of 2?° C, 3.5?° C and 5?° C are simulated to expose an additional 8%, 11% and 13% of the world population to new or aggravated water scarcity, respectively, with >50% confidence (while ˜1.3 billion people already live in water-scarce regions). Concurrently, substantial habitat transformations would occur in biogeographic regions that contain 1% (in zones affected at 2?° C), 10% (3.5?° C) and 74% (5?° C) of present endemism-weighted vascular plant species, respectively. The results suggest nonlinear growth of impacts along with ?Tg and highlight regional disparities in impact magnitudes and critical ?Tg levels.

Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, Wolfgang; Ostberg, Sebastian; Heinke, Jens; Kowarsch, Martin; Kreft, Holger; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Rastgooy, Johann; Warren, Rachel; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2013-09-01

162

Seven steps to curb global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Based on best current estimates that the world needs to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by 70% by 2050, and that there is at best a 10-year window of opportunity available to initiate the enormous changes needed, this paper proposes a set of seven self-contained steps that can be taken at a global level to tackle the problem with some

John Mathews

2007-01-01

163

Teleconnection of ENSO during the future global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

We analyze IPCC-AR4 coupled general circulation model (CGCMs) in order to investigate the teleconnection of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the future global warming. The increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere leads overall tropical Pacific warming, which have the main convection center in the equatorial Pacific associated with ENSO shifted to the east by about 10-degree longitude. Together with

S. An; J. Kug

2009-01-01

164

Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of institutional commitment to energy conservation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy resources, colleges and universities must focus public and professional attention on the imperative for action and the means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and countering global warming.

Stone, G. T.

2006-12-01

165

Large-scale dynamics and global warming  

SciTech Connect

Predictions of future climate change raise a variety of issues in large-scale atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. Several of these are reviewed in this essay, including the sensitivity of the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean to increasing freshwater input at high latitudes; the possibility of greenhouse cooling in the southern oceans; the sensitivity of monsoonal circulations to differential warming of the two hemispheres; the response of midlatitude storms to changing temperature gradients and increasing water vapor in the atmosphere; and the possible importance of positive feedback between the mean winds and eddy-induced heating in the polar stratosphere.

Held, I.M. (Princeton Univ., NJ (United States))

1993-02-01

166

Halocarbon Ozone Depletion and Global Warming Potentials.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Concern over the global environmental consequences of fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has created a need to determine the potential impacts of other halogenated organic compounds on stratospheric ozone and climate. The CFCs, which do not cont...

R. A. Cox, D. Wuebbles, R. Atkinson, P. S. Connell, H. P. Dorn

1990-01-01

167

Warming will affect phytoplankton differently: evidence through a mechanistic approach  

PubMed Central

Although the consequences of global warming in aquatic ecosystems are only beginning to be revealed, a key to forecasting the impact on aquatic communities is an understanding of individual species' vulnerability to increased temperature. Despite their microscopic size, phytoplankton support about half of the global primary production, drive essential biogeochemical cycles and represent the basis of the aquatic food web. At present, it is known that phytoplankton are important targets and, consequently, harbingers of climate change in aquatic systems. Therefore, investigating the capacity of phytoplankton to adapt to the predicted warming has become a relevant issue. However, considering the polyphyletic complexity of the phytoplankton community, different responses to increased temperature are expected. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on 12 species of phytoplankton isolated from a variety of environments by using a mechanistic approach able to assess evolutionary adaptation (the so-called ratchet technique). We found different degrees of tolerance to temperature rises and an interspecific capacity for genetic adaptation. The thermal resistance level reached by each species is discussed in relation to their respective original habitats. Our study additionally provides evidence on the most resistant phytoplankton groups in a future warming scenario.

Huertas, I. Emma; Rouco, Monica; Lopez-Rodas, Victoria; Costas, Eduardo

2011-01-01

168

Myth or reality; Some data dispute global warming theory  

SciTech Connect

Science in March 1990 published a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) analysis of data collected from 1979 through 1988 by the TIROS-N series of weather satellites. The data include the most precise global temperature measurements ever taken. The study found no evidence of global warming from the greenhouse effect during that period. If anything, the short-term trend was toward cooling, since the average of the first five years, 1979 to 1983, was warmer than the most recent five. The NASA findings can be added to a burgeoning body of scientific data seriously questioning the contention that Earth is threatened by global warming resulting from a greenhouse effect primarily instigated by man. Ironically, James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has been the nation's most outspoken advocate of the thesis that, because concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and other greenhouse gases, such as methane, have risen by 30 percent in the last 100 years and are expected to rise another 40 percent by 2050, the planet eventually will warm by about 4 degrees Celsius. According to this hypothesis, the warming will cause major coastal flooding, inland droughts and sundry other catastrophes. But Reid Bryson, founder of the Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin, contends Hansen's thesis cannot be accepted, and Michael Schlesinger, professor of meteorology at the University of Illinois, asserts the chance that global warming has already been detected is pretty close to zero.

Lee, R.W.

1991-04-01

169

Global warming: knowledge and views of Iranian students.  

PubMed

Study of students' knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students' knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed "if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter" and "incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming". 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought "the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide" and "presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect". 68.4% believed "not using cars so much is a cure for global warming". While a student's 'cognitive score' could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 & 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P<0.01) and grade 1 students (P<0.001) but there was no statistically significant difference between students of different regions (P>0.05). In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students' mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter. PMID:23605603

Yazdanparast, Taraneh; Salehpour, Sousan; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Seyedmehdi, Seyed Mohammad; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin; Attarchi, Mirsaeed

2013-01-01

170

Global Warming and Food Insecurity in Rural Latin America  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Food insecurity is one of the most important challenges facing humanity in the 21st century - a challenge that will be further exacerbated by the changing climate. The effects of human induced climate change will be most disproportionate and severe in the developing world, where a stable food supply, decreased purchasing power, and adequate nutrition are often already a daily struggle. This study will build on work done by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN), and will assess how vulnerability to household food insecurity will be affected by global warming in various rural parts of Latin America. Temperature data from downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCM) will be used in conjunction with the results of national household surveys to generate information on each rural farming household's probability of falling below a food poverty threshold in the near future. The results of the study will allow us to distinguish between households that are likely to experience chronic food insecurity and those that are likely to experience transitory food insecurity, permitting for improved targeting of policy responses.

Byrne, T. R.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S.

2012-12-01

171

The zero discounting and maximin optimal paths in a simple model of global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Following Stollery (1998), we extend the Solow–Dasgupta–Heal model to analyze the effects of global warming. The rise in temperature is caused by the use of fossil resources so that the temperature level can be linked to the remaining stock of these resources. The rise in temperature affects both productivity and utility. We characterize optimal solutions for the maximin and zero

Antoine d’Autume; John M. Hartwick; Katheline Schubert

2010-01-01

172

Paper No: 693 Engaging Architects and Architectural Students in Global Warming Awareness  

Microsoft Academic Search

Today, Global warming is a major dilemma facing our globe that has changed the world concerns to reconsider the pollution sources affecting planet earth. This along with the tremendous increase in carbon dioxide emissions all over the world in the last decade has simulated the EDRG (Environmental Design Research Group, at the Architectural Engineering and Environmental Design Department) at the

Amira ELNOKALY; Ahmed ELSERAGY; Ingy ELGEBALY

173

Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to global warming: a case study of arid zone of Rajasthan (India)  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global warming due to greenhouse effect is expected to cause major changes in climate of some areas. The change in climate is likely to have a profound effect on hydrological cycle viz. precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture etc. Evapotranspiration (ET) being the major component of hydrological cycle will affect crop water requirement and future planning and management of water resources. In

R. K. Goyal

2004-01-01

174

REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING - THE ROLE OF RICE  

EPA Science Inventory

Activities to provide energy for an expanding population are increasingly disrupting and changing the concentration of atmospheric gases that increase global temperature. ncreased CO2 and temperature have a clear effect on growth and production of rice as they are key factors in ...

175

Future global warming from atmospheric trace gases  

Microsoft Academic Search

The effect of the continuing addition of trace gases to the atmosphere due to human activity on the future global surface temperatures is examined. The radiative properties of the atmosphere are reviewed, and the atmospheric increase in carbon dioxide, halocarbons, nitrous oxide, methane, and ozone is discusssed. Future scenarios resulting from these trends and their implications for climate change are

R. E. Dickinson; R. J. Cicerone

1986-01-01

176

Global warming: is weight loss a solution?  

Microsoft Academic Search

The current climate change has been most likely caused by the increased greenhouse gas emissions. We have looked at the major greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), and estimated the reduction in the CO2 emissions that would occur with the theoretical global weight loss. The calculations were based on our previous weight loss study, investigating the effects of a low-carbohydrate diet

A Gryka; J Broom; C Rolland

2012-01-01

177

Global Warming, Clouds, and Albedo: Feedback Loops  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site, from the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), offers a detailed explanation, with diagrams, of both Earth's water cycle and the global heat flow, including the processes that produce the greenhouse effect. Greenhouse gases are listed, and their relative contributions to the greenhouse effect are enumerated. Special attention is paid to the role of clouds.

2009-05-27

178

Global Warming: The Threat to the Planet  

Microsoft Academic Search

Paleoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the `albedo flip' property of water substance, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that `flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm.

James Hansen

2007-01-01

179

What are the Consequences of Global Warming?  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this textbook chapter, sea level rise, ocean acidification, storm surge, desertification, ecosystem loss, and extreme weather are all discussed, along with economic and social costs to society. A video clip of NASA scientist, Dr. Tom Wagner, discusses sea level rise. A video discussing pitfalls of statistical analysis and an interactive map of human impacts of climate change are linked. The resource includes a classroom investigation, discussion questions, links to current news articles, and a suite of pre and post unit assessments. A teacher's guide supports classroom use. This is chapter 8 in the unit, Climate Change, which addresses the question of how human activities are changing Earth's climate. The resource is part of Global Systems Science (GSS), an interdisciplinary course for high school students that emphasizes how scientists from a wide variety of fields work together to understand significant problems of global impact.

180

The impact of Global Warming on global crop yields due to changes in pest pressure  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A billion people currently lack reliable access to sufficient food and almost half of the calories feeding these people come from just three crops: rice, maize, wheat. Insect pests are among the largest factors affecting the yield of these three crops, but models assessing the effects of global warming on crops rarely consider changes in insect pest pressure on crop yields. We use well-established relationships between temperature and insect physiology to project climate-driven changes in pest pressure, defined as integrated population metabolism, for the three major crops. By the middle of this century, under most scenarios, insect pest pressure is projected to increase by more than 50% in temperate areas, while increases in tropical regions will be more modest. Yield relationships indicate that the largest increases in insect pest pressure are likely to occur in areas where yield is greatest, suggesting increased strain on global food markets.

Battisti, D. S.; Tewksbury, J. J.; Deutsch, C. A.

2011-12-01

181

OIL vs. WARMING FOSSIL FUEL SCARCITY WILL NOT SAVE US FROM GLOBAL WARMING  

Microsoft Academic Search

The extent of global warming which will be experienced on the Earth in the next centuries will be constrained by the trajectories of the anthropic fossil fuel consumption as well as by geological fuel availability. An important paper by W. P. Nel and C. J. Cooper (Nel and Cooper, 2009) will appear in Energy Policy (already available online) attempting to

Antonio Zecca; Luca Chiari

182

Effects of global warming on wind energy availability  

Microsoft Academic Search

The use of wind energy reduces our greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. In this study, we proposed a generic power-law relationship between global warming and the usable wind energy (Betz’s law). The power law index (?4, region dependent) is then determined using simulated atmospheric parameters from eight global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models (CGCMs). It is found that the power-law

Diandong Ren

2010-01-01

183

8th Global warming international conference and exposition  

SciTech Connect

Abstracts are presented from The 8th Annual Global Warming international conference and expo. Topics centered around greenhouse gas emission and disposal methods, policy and economics, carbon budget, and resource management. Individual reports have been processed separately for the United States Department of Energy databases.

NONE

1997-12-31

184

Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach  

Microsoft Academic Search

The countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol have pledged to limit global warming by reducing the demand for fossil fuels. But what about supply? If suppliers do not react, demand reductions by a subset of countries are ineffective. They simply depress the world price of carbon and induce the environmental sinners to consume what the Kyoto countries have economized

Hans-Werner Sinn

2008-01-01

185

MAXIMIZING SLUDGE AND BIOGAS PRODUCTION FOR COUNTERACTING GLOBAL WARMING  

Microsoft Academic Search

Can wastewater treatment contribute to counteract global warming? Increased biogas production for substituting fossil fuel is one possibility. However, using maximum amount of the carbon source for biogas production there will be no carbon source for biological nutrient removal. This will need development of new methods for nutrient removal without carbon source, for which struvite precipitation and can anammox be

E. Levlin

186

College Students' Misconceptions of Environmental Issues Related to Global Warming.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Students are currently exposed to world environmental problems--including global warming and the greenhouse effect--in science classes at various points during their K-12 and college experience. However, the amount and depth of explosure to these issues can be quite variable. Students are also exposed to sources of misinformation leading to…

Groves, Fred H.; Pugh, Ava F.

187

ICT & wireless networks and their impact on global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global warming caused many countries to call for drastic energy savings within the coming years. At the same time we see a rapidly increasing demand on Telecom services. Estimations of the future Telecom and ICT sectors' energy consumption are varying; nevertheless all predict an increase of energy consumption. On the other hand, the ICT sector is believed to be one

Hans-Otto Scheck

2010-01-01

188

Population growth and technological change in a global warming model  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global warming (GW) is now recognized as a significant threat to sustainable development on an international scale. After providing some introductory background material, we introduce a benchmark dynamic game within which to study the GW problem. The model allows for population growth and is subsequently generalized to allow for changes in technology. In each case, a benchmark “Business as Usual”

Prajit K. Dutta; Roy Radner

2006-01-01

189

Simulated response of North Pacific Mode Waters to global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study investigates the response of the Mode Waters in the North Pacific to global warming based on a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models. Solutions between a present-day climate and a future, warmer climate are compared. Under the warmer climate scenario, the Mode Waters are produced on lighter isopycnal surfaces and are

Yiyong Luo; Qinyu Liu; Lewis M. Rothstein

2009-01-01

190

Global warming threat on water resources and environment: a review  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global warming, greenhouse effect, and the climate change problems are long-term anthropogenic consequences that are expected to threaten water related demand and supply patterns in the near future. These problems may be identified linguistically on a logical basis to take the necessary precautions, and implement mitigation strategies after vulnerability possibilities are assessed using fuzzy logic. Climate change effects are the

Zekai Sen

2009-01-01

191

Interpretation of simulated global warming using a simple model  

Microsoft Academic Search

A simple energy balance model with two parameters, an effective heat capacity and an effective climate sensitivity, is used to interpret six GCM simulations of greenhouse gas-induced global warming. By allowing the parameters to vary in time, the model can be accurately calibrated for each run. It is found that the sensitivity can be approximated as a constant in each

Watterson

2000-01-01

192

Interpretation of Simulated Global Warming Using a Simple Model  

Microsoft Academic Search

A simple energy balance model with two parameters, an effective heat capacity and an effective climate sensitivity, is used to interpret six GCM simulations of greenhouse gas-induced global warming. By allowing the parameters to vary in time, the model can be accurately calibrated for each run. It is found that the sensitivity can be approximated as a constant in each

I. G. Watterson

2000-01-01

193

Turkish prospective teachers’ understanding and misunderstanding on global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

The key objective of this study is to determine the Turkish elementary prospective teachers’ opinions on global warming. It is also aimed to establish prospective teachers’ views about the environmental education in Turkish universities. A true–false type scale was administered to 564 prospective teachers from science education, social studies education and primary school education departments of three universities in Turkey.

A. Ocal; M. Kisoglu; A. Alas; H. Gurbuz

2011-01-01

194

How the next US president should slow global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper addresses the energy technologies and policies that the next US president should immediately implement to slow global warming. Increased reliance on renewable energy through deployment of a National Renewable Portfolio Standard will help meet increased electrical demand in a sustainable way. Carbon regulation through an internationally fungible cap and trade system will help make renewables more cost competitive

Elizabeth Lokey

2007-01-01

195

Viewpoint How the next US president should slow global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper addresses the energy technologies and policies that the next US president should immediately implement to slow global warming. Increased reliance on renewable energy through deployment of a National Renewable Portfolio Standard will help meet increased electrical demand in a sustainable way. Carbon regulation through an internationally fungible cap and trade system will help make renewables more cost competitive

Elizabeth Lokey

196

Natural gas and efficient technologies: A response to global warming.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

It has become recognized by the international scientific community that global warming due to fossil fuel energy buildup of greenhouse CO(sub 2) in the atmosphere is a real environmental problem. Worldwide agreement has also been reached to reduce CO(sub ...

M. Steinberg

1998-01-01

197

Seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was administered to students. These data were

Daniel P. Shepardson; Dev Niyogi; Soyoung Choi; Umarporn Charusombat

2009-01-01

198

Population and global warming with and without CO 2 targets  

Microsoft Academic Search

The sensitivity of future global warming to variable population growth rates is reexamined as part of an ongoing debate over the extent to which climate change should be added to the list of concerns surrounding population growth. The UN 1992 low, medium and high population projections out to the year 2150 are run through an integrated climate-economics model which allows

Stuart R. Gaffin; Brian C. O'Neill

1997-01-01

199

Brazil's Amazon forest in mitigating global warming: unresolved controversies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Brazil's Amazon rainforest provides an important environmental service with its storage of carbon, thereby reducing global warming. A growing number of projects and proposals intend to reward carbon storage services. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is currently a key issue for negotiations on an international agreement that is to take effect in 2013. Various issues require decisions that

Philip M. Fearnside

2012-01-01

200

Brazil's Amazon forest in mitigating global warming: unresolved controversies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Brazil's Amazon rainforest provides an important environmental service with its storage of carbon, thereby reducing global warming. A growing number of projects and proposals intend to reward carbon storage services. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is currently a key issue for negotiations on an international agreement that is to take effect in 2013. Various issues require decisions that

Philip M. Fearnside

2011-01-01

201

GLOBAL WARMING: THE GREENHOUSE, WHITE HOUSE, AND POORHOUSE EFFECTS  

Microsoft Academic Search

SUMMARY The potential for global warming presents policy issues of unprecedented proportions. The entire debate pivots on assessing large-scale risks without adequate information. For the past decade, environmentalists and some scientists have claimed that human-induced emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) (and other \\

Steven J. Moss; Richard J. McCann

202

Global warming: discounting is not the issue, but substitutability is  

Microsoft Academic Search

The cost–benefit study of Nordhaus (1994) is representative for the neoclassical approach towards global warming. Nordhaus found that no substantial emission cuts are warranted. Most of his critics have concentrated on the issue of discounting and demanded that a lower discount rate should be applied. These criticisms first miss the point and second lead to ethically dubious, inconsistent conclusions and

Eric Neumayer

1999-01-01

203

Nuclear energy conversion systems for arresting global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Presently the global warming by CO2 emission from fossil fuel burning is becoming a serious issue. Especially, coal is the worse fossil fuel, because it emits the largest amount of CO2 per unit amount of heat generation. There seem to be two ways of reducing substantial CO2 emission rate of coal; they are, reforming coal to synthesis fuel with less

M. Hishida; M. Fumizawa; Y. Inaba; M. Aritomi; S. Nomura; S. Kosaka; S. Yamada; K. Ogata

1997-01-01

204

The Eastward Shift of the Walker Circulation in Global Warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In this talk we discuss the global warming response of the Walker Circulation and the other zonal circulation cells (represented by the zonal stream function) in a CMIP5 multi model ensemble (MMEns) in the RCP4.5 scenario. The changes in the mean state are presented as well as the changes in the modes of variability. The mean zonal circulation weakens nearly everywhere along the equator, but in the Pacific the Walker cell also shifts eastwards. These changes in the mean circulation are very similar to the leading mode of interannual variability in the tropical zonal circulation cells, which is dominated by ENSO variability. During an El Nino event the mass transport weakens and the rising branch over the Maritime Continent shifts to the east in comparison to neutral conditions. A large part of the global warming trend (66%) can be explained by a long term trend in this interannual variability pattern, i.e. a shift towards more El Nino like conditions in the MMEns in global warming. Further is in interannual variability the El Nino pattern of zonal stream function more in the east than the La Nina pattern, thus representing a spatial non-linearity. Consistent with this non-linearity we find a shift to the east of the dominant mode of variability of zonal stream function in global warming. The MMEns of CMIP3 (22 models) shows in all aspects very similar results to the CMIP5 MMEns (36 models), which underlines the robustness of these results.

Bayr, T.; Dommenget, D.; Martin, T.

2013-12-01

205

Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

Hansen, James E

1999-01-01

206

Global Warming: Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse Effect  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This video segment demonstrates carbon dioxide's role in the greenhouse effect and explains how increasing concentrations of C02 in the atmosphere may be contributing to global warming. Video includes an unusual demonstration of C02's heat-absorbing properties, using infrared film, a researcher's face, and a stream of C02 between them.

Frontline/nova; Foundation, Wgbh E.; Domain, Teachers'

207

The Petition: A Global Warming Case  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The goal of this dilemma case study is to teach students about global climate change.  The setting is a faculty meeting where the discussion has turned to a petition circulating in the scientific community against signing the Kyoto Treaty.  Students read graphs and interpret data and consider the political, economic, and ethical issues surrounding the controversy.  The case would be appropriate for use in a variety of courses, including biology, geology, chemistry, physics, meteorology, economics, political science, and ethics.

Allen, Bruce C.; Herreid, Clyde F.

2002-01-01

208

Global Warming May Worsen Air Pollution  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Using a General Circulation Model (GCM) with interactive aerosol cycles and a prognostic treatment of aerosol-cloud interactions, we study the changes in simulated aerosol concentrations in response to a globally uniform increase of 2 K in sea surface temperature (SST) (i.e., Cess-type experiments). With the exception of those of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) (SST- and surface wind-dependent) and dust (surface wind- dependent), the natural and anthropogenic emissions of primary aerosols and precursors are unchanged in the control and perturbed experiments. We find that the global annual mean column burden of sulfate aerosol increases by 6.1% mainly owing to the reduction in tropical low clouds and associated large-scale precipitation. The same low cloud response also leads to less SO2 being oxidized into sulfate through cloud processing, despite the significant increase in SO2 concentration caused by higher DMS emissions. Thus, the so-called CLAW hypothesis is not borne out in this study. Similar to sulfate, the burdens of hydrophilic organic and black carbon increase by 6.3% and 7.6%, respectively, while those of their hydrophobic counterparts are little changed. A stronger Azores high enhances surface winds, and thus Saharan dust emissions, resulting in an increase of 8.7% in small dust burden and 3.2% in large dust burden. The implications for climate sensitivity and future air quality are discussed.

Ming, Y.; Zhao, M.; Ginoux, P.; Ramaswamy, V.

2008-12-01

209

Simulation of future global warming scenarios in rice paddies with an open-field warming facility  

PubMed Central

To simulate expected future global warming, hexagonal arrays of infrared heaters have previously been used to warm open-field canopies of upland crops such as wheat. Through the use of concrete-anchored posts, improved software, overhead wires, extensive grounding, and monitoring with a thermal camera, the technology was safely and reliably extended to paddy rice fields. The system maintained canopy temperature increases within 0.5°C of daytime and nighttime set-point differences of 1.3 and 2.7°C 67% of the time.

2011-01-01

210

Simulation of future global warming scenarios in rice paddies with an open-field warming facility.  

PubMed

To simulate expected future global warming, hexagonal arrays of infrared heaters have previously been used to warm open-field canopies of upland crops such as wheat. Through the use of concrete-anchored posts, improved software, overhead wires, extensive grounding, and monitoring with a thermal camera, the technology was safely and reliably extended to paddy rice fields. The system maintained canopy temperature increases within 0.5°C of daytime and nighttime set-point differences of 1.3 and 2.7°C 67% of the time. PMID:22145582

Rehmani, Muhammad Ishaq Asif; Zhang, Jingqi; Li, Ganghua; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Wang, Shaohua; Kimball, Bruce A; Yan, Chuan; Liu, Zhenghui; Ding, Yanfeng

2011-01-01

211

An Investigation of Student Engagement in a Global Warming Debate  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

NOTE: This is a large file, 77 mb in size! This article describes an investigation into how using debate as a pedagogical tool for addressing earth system science concepts can promote active student learning, present a realistic and dynamic view of science, and provide a mechanism for integrating the scientific, political and social dimensions of global environmental change. Using global warming as an example of earth system science, the authors consider how participation in debate provides an avenue for engaging students in science. The investigation draws from studies of school science that focus on the use of argument as a pedagogical tool and examines how students make use of observationally-based climatic data sets when debating the cause of global warming.

Schweizer, Diane; Kelly, Gregory

2005-01-01

212

A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Timber Market under Global Warming: An Integrated Modeling Approach  

Microsoft Academic Search

We develop a dynamic integrated modeling approach to identify the effect of global warming on the global timber market. The Timber Supply Model (TSM) 2000, BIOME 3, and Hamburg are used as suitable economic and ecological models. In particular, the TSM 2000 is developed to incorporate important additional components in the global timber market. We estimate dynamic ecological change based

Dug Man Lee; Kenneth S. Lyon

2004-01-01

213

A dynamic analysis of the global timber market under global warming: an integrated modeling approach  

Microsoft Academic Search

We developed a dynamic integrated modeling approach to identify the effect of global warming on the global timber market. The Timber Supply Model 2000, BIOME 3, and Hamburg were used as a suitable economic and ecological model. The TSM 2000 was adopted to model dynamic economic behavior in the global timber market. BIOME 3 was utilized as our steady state

Dug Lee; Kenneth Lyon

2001-01-01

214

What can Pliocene tell us about Global Warming?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The early Pliocene warm period (dated around 4 million years ago) is an intriguing test case for Global Climate Models (GCMs) as it was the last time today's CO2 levels are seen in the paleorecord. However, proxy data of the early Pliocene sea surface temperatures (SSTs) suggest that the Earth was substantially warmer at that time than today. Here, we use the GFDL's AM2.1 atmospheric GCM, being forced with a Pliocene SST reconstruction, to study the roles of fast physical processes in sustaining such warming and consider the implications for the model's fitness in simulating anthropogenic global warming (AGW). At the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) should be in approximate balance with shortwave absorption (SWABS) for the climate to remain extendedly steady (as in the Pliocene). It is found that with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 4.4K over today's conditions (control run) the Pliocene run shows an increase in both SWABS and OLR (9.7 and 6.1 W/m2, respectively). The 3.6 W/m2 imbalance introduced may indicate a difficulty in the model's ability to simulate the Pliocene steady conditions, most likely due to the model's cloud parameterizations. The Pliocene warming had many different climatic impacts than AGW is predicted to including redistribution of cloud cover and precipitation patterns, with a strong shift in both from ocean to land, as well as opposing changes in oceanic and atmospheric meridional heat transport.

Frazer, M. E.; Ming, Y.

2013-12-01

215

First tropical warm rain estimates could improve global climate models  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This study breaks down the type of rainfall in the tropical zones. Microwave images and radar data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission were examined. It was found that approximately 72 percent of the total rain area and 31 percent of the total rain amount in the tropics comes from warm rain. The relationship between liquid water in a cloud and the rain rate was also measured. Results can be used in climate models to represent convection cycles and their role in global warming.

Lau, William; Wu, H. T.; Agu

216

Global warming solutions and the path to recovery.  

PubMed

We will look back on the last year as a period when extraordinary economic events marked the unraveling of one economic model and placed in front of the global community a set of choices. Either we restructure the architecture of the global economy and replace it with something else, or we face a future of devastating economic consequences. The Blue Green Alliance has become one of America's leading advocates for global warming solutions and we believe that the benefits and economic opportunities will far outweigh the costs. We have popularized the terms "green economy" and "green jobs" and we believe that every job in America should turn into a green job. PMID:19608497

Foster, David

2009-01-01

217

Discriminating robust and non-robust atmospheric circulation responses to global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

The robustness of the atmospheric circulation response to global warming in a set of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) is investigated. The global-warmed climate is forced by a global pattern of warmed ocean surface temperatures that is extracted from a multi-model ensemble of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model greenhouse warming simulations. The robustness of the warming response is evaluated by a

Michael Sigmond; Paul J. Kushner; John F. Scinocca

2007-01-01

218

No Such Luck: Nitrogen from Air Pollution Unlikely to Moderate Global Warming  

NSF Publications Database

... from Air Pollution Unlikely to Moderate Global Warming December 5, 1996 This material is available ... dioxide in the atmosphere to moderate global warming. That scenario now seems unlikely, say ...

219

Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium.  

PubMed

We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance. PMID:24107529

Rühland, K M; Paterson, A M; Keller, W; Michelutti, N; Smol, J P

2013-12-01

220

Energy and global warming impacts of HFC refrigerants and emerging technologies: TEWI-III  

SciTech Connect

The use of hydrofluorocarbons (BFCs) which were developed as alternative refrigerants and insulating foam blowing agents to replace chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) is now being affected by scientific investigations of greenhouse warming and questions about the effects of refrigerants and blowing agents on global warming. A Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) assessment analyzes the environmental affects of these halogenated working fluids in energy consuming applications by combining a direct effect resulting from the inadvertent release of HFCs to the atmosphere with an indirect effect resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels needed to provide the energy to operate equipment using these compounds as working fluids. TEWI is a more balanced measure of environmental impact because it is not based solely on the global warming potential (GWP) of the working fluid. It also shows the environmental benefit of efficient technologies that result in less CO{sub 2} generation and eventual emission to the earth`s atmosphere. The goal of TEWI is to assess total global warming impact of all the gases released to the atmosphere, including CO{sub 2} emissions from energy conversion. Alternative chemicals and technologies have been proposed as substitutes for HFCs in the vapor-compression cycle for refrigeration and air conditioning and for polymer foams in appliance and building insulations which claim substantial environmental benefits. Among these alternatives are: (1) Hydrocarbon (HC) refrigerants and blowing agents which have zero ozone depleting potential and a negligible global warming potential, (2) CO{sub 2} as a refrigerant and blowing agent, (3) Ammonia (NH{sub 3}) vapor compression systems, (4) Absorption chiller and heat pumping cycles using ammonia/water or lithium bromide/water, and (5) Evacuated panel insulations. This paper summarizes major results and conclusions of the detailed final report on the TEWI-111 study.

Sand, J.R.; Fischer, S.K.; Baxter, V.D.

1997-06-01

221

Above- and belowground linkages in Sphagnum peatland: climate warming affects plant-microbial interactions.  

PubMed

Peatlands contain approximately one third of all soil organic carbon (SOC). Warming can alter above- and belowground linkages that regulate soil organic carbon dynamics and C-balance in peatlands. Here we examine the multiyear impact of in situ experimental warming on the microbial food web, vegetation, and their feedbacks with soil chemistry. We provide evidence of both positive and negative impacts of warming on specific microbial functional groups, leading to destabilization of the microbial food web. We observed a strong reduction (70%) in the biomass of top-predators (testate amoebae) in warmed plots. Such a loss caused a shortening of microbial food chains, which in turn stimulated microbial activity, leading to slight increases in levels of nutrients and labile C in water. We further show that warming altered the regulatory role of Sphagnum-polyphenols on microbial community structure with a potential inhibition of top predators. In addition, warming caused a decrease in Sphagnum cover and an increase in vascular plant cover. Using structural equation modelling, we show that changes in the microbial food web affected the relationships between plants, soil water chemistry, and microbial communities. These results suggest that warming will destabilize C and nutrient recycling of peatlands via changes in above- and belowground linkages, and therefore, the microbial food web associated with mosses will feedback positively to global warming by destabilizing the carbon cycle. This study confirms that microbial food webs thus constitute a key element in the functioning of peatland ecosystems. Their study can help understand how mosses, as ecosystem engineers, tightly regulate biogeochemical cycling and climate feedback in peatlands. PMID:23504838

Jassey, Vincent E J; Chiapusio, Geneviève; Binet, Philippe; Buttler, Alexandre; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Delarue, Frédéric; Bernard, Nadine; Mitchell, Edward A D; Toussaint, Marie-Laure; Francez, André-Jean; Gilbert, Daniel

2013-03-01

222

Health effects of global warming: Problems in assessment  

SciTech Connect

Global warming is likely to result in a variety of environmental effects ranging from impacts on species diversity, changes in population size in flora and fauna, increases in sea level and possible impacts on the primary productivity of the sea. Potential impacts on human health and welfare have included possible increases in heat related mortality, changes in the distribution of disease vectors, and possible impacts on respiratory diseases including hayfever and asthma. Most of the focus thus far is on effects which are directly related to increases in temperature, e.g., heat stress or perhaps one step removed, e.g., changes in vector distribution. Some of the more severe impacts are likely to be much less direct, e.g., increases in migration due to agricultural failure following prolonged droughts. This paper discusses two possible approaches to the study of these less-direct impacts of global warming and presents information from on-going research using each of these approaches.

Longstreth, J.

1993-06-01

223

Effects of Global Warming on Ancient Mammalian Communities and Their Environments  

PubMed Central

Background Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however, long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems, including C3/C4 transitions and relative seasonality. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (?1.9 million years ago) and Pleistocene (?1.3 million years ago) in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity, increased C4 grass consumption, inter-faunal dietary partitioning, increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders, niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa, and differences in relative seasonality with warming. Conclusion/Significance Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (?28°N). Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems.

DeSantis, Larisa R. G.; Feranec, Robert S.; MacFadden, Bruce J.

2009-01-01

224

Climate and conflicts: the security risks of global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Since the publication of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, the securitization\\u000a of global warming has reached a new level. Numerous public statements and a growing research literature have discussed the\\u000a potential security risks and conflicts associated with climate change. This article provides an overview of this debate and\\u000a introduces an assessment framework

Jürgen Scheffran; Antonella Battaglini

2011-01-01

225

Global warming threat on water resources and environment: a review  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global warming, greenhouse effect, and the climate change problems are long-term anthropogenic consequences that are expected\\u000a to threaten water related demand and supply patterns in the near future. These problems may be identified linguistically on\\u000a a logical basis to take the necessary precautions, and implement mitigation strategies after vulnerability possibilities are\\u000a assessed using fuzzy logic. Climate change effects are the

Zekai ?en

2009-01-01

226

Collective Action and Citizen Responses to Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper expands the relevance of the collective interest model of mass political action to explain collective-action behavior\\u000a in the context of global warming and climate change. The analysis is an attempt to answer Ostrom’s call for a behavioral model\\u000a of collective action that can be generalized beyond political protest to other collective-action problems. We elaborate, specify,\\u000a and empirically test

Mark Lubell; Sammy Zahran; Arnold Vedlitz

2007-01-01

227

Energy Prices and Carbon Taxes under Uncertainty about Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper extends the strategic interactions between producers of fossil fuels concerned about their profits and a taxing\\u000a government concerned about the consumers’ welfare for uncertainty: global warming follows an Itô -process. Stochasticity requires\\u000a to differentiate between reversible and irreversible emissions in contrast to the deterministic version. The unconstrained\\u000a (= reversible) case allows for a closed form solution but not the

Franz Wirl

2007-01-01

228

Snow: a reliable indicator for global warming in the future?  

Microsoft Academic Search

The cryosphere consists of water in the solid form at the Earth’s surface and includes, among others, snow, sea ice, glaciers and ice sheets. Since the 1990s the cryosphere and its components have often been considered as indicators of global warming because rising temperatures can enhance the melting of solid water (e.g. Barry et al 1993, Goodison and Walker 1993,

H-W Jacobi

2012-01-01

229

The World Watcher Project: The Global Warming Project  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this unit, students learn about the scientific factors contributing to the global warming debate. Students act as advisors to the heads of state of several nations and explore the issues as they respond to the various questions and concerns of these leaders. Activities include a combination of physical labs and investigations using World Watcher software, a geographic data visualization tool developed by Northwestern University.

2001-01-01

230

New electric technologies to reduce global warming impacts  

Microsoft Academic Search

Advanced electric technologies hold significant potential to reduce global warming impact through reduction of primary fuel needed to power end-use applications. These reductions can occur in two forms: (1) reduced kilowatt-hour usage and power plant emissions through efficiency improvements and technological enhancements of existing electrically-driven applications; (2) the development of new electric technologies to replace traditional fossil-fuel driven applications which

Courtright

1994-01-01

231

Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management  

Microsoft Academic Search

It has been conjectured that global warming will increase the prevalence of insect pests in many agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we quantitatively assess four of the key pests of maize, one of the most important systems in North American grain production. Using empirically generated estimates of pest overwintering thresholds and degree-day requirements, along with climate change projections from a high-resolution

Noah S Diffenbaugh; Christian H Krupke; Michael A White; Corinne E Alexander

2008-01-01

232

Winners and losers in a world with global warming: Noncooperation, altruism, and social welfare  

SciTech Connect

In this paper, global warming is an asymmetric transboundary externality which benefits some countries or regions and harms others. Few environmental problems have captured the public`s imagination as much and attracted as much scrutiny as global warming. The general perception is that global warming is a net social bad, and that across-the-board abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is therefore desirable. Despite many interesting academic contributions, not all of the basic economics of this phenomenon have been fully worked out. The authors use a simple two-country model to analyze the effects of global warming on resource allocations, the global-warming stock, and national and global welfare.

Caplan, A.J. [Weber State Univ., Ogden, UT (United States). Dept. of Economics] [Weber State Univ., Ogden, UT (United States). Dept. of Economics; Ellis, C.J.; Silva, E.C.D. [Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States). Dept. of Economics] [Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States). Dept. of Economics

1999-05-01

233

Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.  

PubMed

Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach, we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models, (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes, (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not, and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition, average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from <1 to 43% of the endemic biota (average 11.6%), with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates, followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions. Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates; in some scenarios, however, botspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates. Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region, Caribbean, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Southwest Australia, and Tropical Andes, where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years, estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation, supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity. PMID:16903114

Malcolm, Jay R; Liu, Canran; Neilson, Ronald P; Hansen, Lara; Hannah, Lee

2006-04-01

234

Northern Hemisphere Glaciation during the Globally Warm Early Late Pliocene  

PubMed Central

The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ?3.0 million years ago) is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS) M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ?3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Here we propose a conceptual model for the glaciation and deglaciation of MIS M2 based on geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect. Our records show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the continental ice sheets during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Sea level drop during this glaciation halted the inflow of Pacific water to the Atlantic via the Central American Seaway, allowing the build-up of a Caribbean Warm Pool. Once this warm pool was large enough, the Gulf Stream–North Atlantic Current system was reinvigorated, leading to significant northward heat transport that terminated the glaciation. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the North Atlantic Current was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century.

De Schepper, Stijn; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Naafs, B. David A; Van Renterghem, Cederic; Hennissen, Jan; Head, Martin J.; Louwye, Stephen; Fabian, Karl

2013-01-01

235

The impact of global warming on health and mortality.  

PubMed

Initial concern about the possible effects of global warming on infections has declined with the realization that the spread of tropical diseases is likely to be limited and controllable. However, the direct effects of heat already cause substantial numbers of deaths among vulnerable people in the summer. Action to prevent these deaths from rising is the most obvious medical challenge presented by a global rise in temperature. Strategies to prevent such deaths are in place to some extent, and they differ between the United States and Europe. Air conditioning has reduced them in the United States, and older technologies such as fans, shade, and buildings designed to keep cool on hot days have generally done so in Europe. Since the energy requirements of air conditioning accelerate global warming, a combination of the older methods, backed up by use of air conditioning when necessary, can provide the ideal solution. Despite the availability of these technologies, occasional record high temperatures still cause sharp rises in heat-related deaths as the climate warms. The most important single piece of advice at the time a heat wave strikes is that people having dangerous heat stress need immediate cooling, eg, by a cool bath. Such action at home can be more effective than transporting the patient to hospital. Meanwhile, it must not be forgotten that cold weather in winter causes-many more deaths than heat in summer, even in most subtropical regions, and measures to control cold-related deaths need to continue. PMID:15586600

Keatinge, W R; Donaldson, G C

2004-11-01

236

Record-breaking precipitation events under global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The last decade has produced an unprecedented number of extreme weather events, including record-breaking rainfall. This seeming accumulation of weather extremes in an exceptionally warm decade has raised the question of whether these events are related to global warming. And hence: How many more extremes do we have to expect in the future? Here we present preliminary results for the analysis of record-breaking precipitation events in the last century using global gridded datasets for annual- and seasonal-maximum daily precipitation. This data reveals significant trends in intensifying precipitation events on a local scale. Thus, we compare the number of observed records for selected SREX-regions with that expected from a stationary climate, for which the simple 1/n relationship holds, where n is the number of previous data points (e.g. years). This anomaly, i.e. the difference in number of registered records, is then related to changes in temperature within the same time period to analyze the influence of global warming.

Lehmann, J.; Coumou, D.; Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.

2013-12-01

237

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

238

How much more global warming and sea level rise?  

PubMed

Two global coupled climate models show that even if the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century. Projected weakening of the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean does not lead to a net cooling in Europe. At any given point in time, even if concentrations are stabilized, there is a commitment to future climate changes that will be greater than those we have already observed. PMID:15774757

Meehl, Gerald A; Washington, Warren M; Collins, William D; Arblaster, Julie M; Hu, Aixue; Buja, Lawrence E; Strand, Warren G; Teng, Haiyan

2005-03-18

239

Global warming threat on water resources and environment: a review  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global warming, greenhouse effect, and the climate change problems are long-term anthropogenic consequences that are expected to threaten water related demand and supply patterns in the near future. These problems may be identified linguistically on a logical basis to take the necessary precautions, and implement mitigation strategies after vulnerability possibilities are assessed using fuzzy logic. Climate change effects are the focus of many scientific, engineering, economic, social, cultural, and global nuisances, and these effects awaits cost-effective remedial solutions. Extreme events such as floods and droughts and modified groundwater recharge may be influenced by climate change.

?en, Zekai

2009-03-01

240

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests  

PubMed Central

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P.

2013-01-01

241

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.  

PubMed

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

2013-01-01

242

Atmospheric impacts of changing sea ice cover in CO2 induced global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changes in sea ice cover have important consequences for both Earth's energy budget and atmospheric dynamics. Sea ice amplifies the effects of applied radiative forcing, insulates ocean from atmosphere and induces changes in the meridional temperature gradients thus affecting atmospheric motion in several ways. In this study, we partition and evaluate the effect of changing sea ice cover in global warming using sets of simulations with active and suppressed sea ice response. In particular, we investigate the effect of CO2 induced sea ice changes on global circulation response and extratropical precipitation extremes. Importantly, our setup employs the Atmospheric General Circulation Model coupled to a mixed layer ocean, thus enabling the atmosphere-surface ocean interactions and global atmospheric teleconnections from remote areas. Mid-latitude circulation patterns are found to be most strongly affected by the sea ice changes. In the standard, 'active' ice setup, westerly winds weaken in response to CO2-induced warming. In contrast, in the absence of sea ice response, westerly winds strengthen with global warming. These contrasting wind responses further affect the atmospheric weather patterns and extreme precipitation event development. We identify two opposing roles of sea ice decline on extreme events: (i) a dominant warming effect leads to an increase in the number and strength of extreme events; (ii) a decrease in the pole to equator gradient (a consequence of sea ice loss) acts to temper the development of precipitation extremes due to a decreased midlatitude dry static energy transport.This leads to the conclusion that for the same global temperature increase, the magnitude and frequency of mid-latitude precipitation extremes is smaller when sea ice loss is enabled than when it is suppressed. In general, in the absence of sea ice feedbacks, we find up to 35% less global warming (depending on the simulation type). This is not only due to the smaller high latitude warming but it is also a consequence of a weaker tropical warming. Tropical precipitation changes and cross-equatorial atmospheric heat transport anomalies are also weakened in the absence of sea ice loss.

Cvijanovic, I.; Caldeira, K.

2013-12-01

243

Gas hydrate contribution to Late Permian global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rapid gas hydrate release (the “clathrate gun” hypothesis) has been invoked as a cause for the rapid global warming and associated negative carbon isotope excursion observed during the Latest Permian Extinction (LPE). We modeled the stability of gas hydrates through a warming Middle to Late Permian world, considering three settings for methane reservoirs: 1) terrestrial hydrates, 2) hydrates on exposed continental shelves during glacial sea level drop, and 3) hydrates in deep marine settings. Model results show that terrestrial hydrates would rapidly destabilize over ?400 ky after deglaciation for moderate heatflow (40 mW/m2), and more rapidly for higher heat flow values. Exposed continental shelves would lose hydrates even more rapidly, after being flooded due to loss of ice storage on land. These two major hydrate reservoirs would thus have destabilized during the Middle to Late Permian climate warming, well prior to the LPE event. However, they may have contributed to the >2‰ negative C-isotopic shift during the late Middle Permian. Deep marine hydrates would have remained stable until LPE time. Rapid warming of deep marine waters during this time could have triggered destabilization of this reservoir, however given the configuration of one super continent, Pangea, hydrate bearing continental slopes would have been less extensive than modern day. This suggests that any potential gas hydrate release would have had only a minor contributing impact to the runaway greenhouse during the Latest Permian extinction.

Majorowicz, J.; Grasby, S. E.; Safanda, J.; Beauchamp, B.

2014-05-01

244

El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation response to global warming  

PubMed Central

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO2, accelerating global warming.

Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S.

2009-01-01

245

El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.  

PubMed

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

2009-12-01

246

Modification of Cirrus Clouds to Reduce Global Warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As far as we know, no studies have addressed the possibility of modifying cirrus clouds to reduce global warming. Here we explore this possibility and associated feasibility issues. To introduce this concept, some background information is needed. The effect of cirrus on climate can be quantified through their predicted impact on climate sensitivity, S (i.e. the equilibrium response of global- mean surface temperature to CO2 doubling) in global climate model (GCM) simulations. A recent study using an ensemble of thousands of "perturbed physics" GCM simulations found that S was most strongly influenced by the entrainment coefficient and the ice fall speed, indicating that S depends more on changes in cirrus clouds than on low-level boundary layer clouds. It may be possible to modify the ice fall speed in cirrus clouds which controls ice removal rates and affects the cirrus ice content, life cycle and coverage, as well as the upper troposphere relative humidity. The main impact of reducing the ice fall speed was an increase in longwave cloud forcing. In a different recent GCM study, we have used the mean size of the ice particle size distribution to change the representative ice fall speed, V. By decreasing V, the cirrus coverage was increased 5.5%, strongly affecting annual zonal means of cloud forcing, heating rates and temperatures in the upper troposphere. This led us to speculate that the introduction of aerosol particles into the upper troposphere (T < -40 C) that efficiently form ice crystals through heterogeneous nucleation may result in larger ice particles with higher fall speeds since the heterogeneous nuclei would outcompete the natural homogeneous freezing ice nuclei for water vapor. This would reduce longwave cloud forcing and lower surface temperatures, as described above. A third recent GCM study supports our speculation, showing that heterogeneous ice nucleation for these conditions produces larger ice crystals with higher fall velocities (relative to ice crystals formed by homogeneous nucleation). These studies and others beg the question of whether the introduction of efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei in regions of the upper troposphere normally dominated by homogeneous nucleation would reduce cirrus cloud coverage through higher ice fall speeds or would increase cirrus coverage by allowing nucleation in otherwise clear-sky regions supersaturated with respect to ice. The introduction of efficient ice nuclei might initially increase cirrus coverage in these regions, but once a new equilibrium of cirrus coverage is established, it is unclear whether cirrus coverage would be more or less than present day conditions. This question could be explored in climate simulations using microphysically advanced GCMs. Should the method appear promising, it could be applied by introducing efficient ice nuclei into the upper troposphere using commercial airliners. Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The strategy is to build-up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei in the -40 to -60 C zone so that cirrus forming by natural processes will experience these nuclei and grow larger crystals. High level winds would disperse the nucleant aerosol from the flight corridors. While there are risks of affecting the climate system in unforeseen ways, time scales in the atmosphere are relatively short, and this geoengineering experiment could be terminated at any time.

Mitchell, D. L.; Rasch, P. J.

2008-12-01

247

Door still open for action on issue of global warming  

SciTech Connect

Global warming may or may not be a legitimate environmental threat, but Washington lobbyists consider it a legislative threat. It does not appear the current Congress will limit or tax use of U.S. fossil fuels, whose burning releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This paper reports that some scientists have claimed a concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will result in a significant warming of the earth by 2050, threatening agriculture, altering ecosystems, and even melting polar ice and causing rising oceans to flood coastal areas and islands. In 1990 a United Nations panel of climate scientists predicted a 2{degrees} C. increase in world temperatures within 35 years and 6{degrees} by the end of the next century. Some scientists say preventing further increases will require a 60% reduction in current CO{sub 2} emissions. The oil industry already is beginning to feel heat from the global warming issue. The Environmental Protection Agency calculates energy production and use is responsible for 57% of current emissions caused by man.

Crow, P.

1992-06-01

248

Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?  

SciTech Connect

Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. Black carbon is produced by poor combustion, from our example hard coal cooking fires for and industrial pulverized coal boilers. The authors review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. It is argued that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Results from published climate-modeling studies are synthesized to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO{sub 2} (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. It is found that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies is proposed that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during the discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement. 31 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

Tami C. Bond; Haolin Sun [University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL (US)

2005-08-15

249

Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Globally increasing temperatures are likely to have impacts on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems that are difficult to manage. Quantifying impacts worldwide and systematically as a function of global warming is fundamental to substantiating the discussion on climate mitigation targets and adaptation planning. Here we present a macro-scale analysis of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems based on newly developed sets of climate scenarios featuring a step-wise sampling of global mean temperature increase between 1.5 and 5 K by 2100. These are processed by a biogeochemical model (LPJmL) to derive an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical and structural shifts in land surface properties which we interpret as a proxy for the risk of shifts and possibly disruptions in ecosystems. Our results show a substantial risk of climate change to transform terrestrial ecosystems profoundly. Nearly no area of the world is free from such risk, unless strong mitigation limits global warming to around 2 degrees above preindustrial level. Even then, our simulations for most climate models agree that up to one-fifth of the land surface may experience at least moderate ecosystem change, primarily at high latitudes and high altitudes. If countries fulfil their current emissions reduction pledges, resulting in roughly 3.5 K of warming, this area expands to cover half the land surface, including the majority of tropical forests and savannas and the boreal zone. Due to differences in regional patterns of climate change, the area potentially at risk of major ecosystem change considering all climate models is up to 2.5 times as large as for a single model.

Ostberg, S.; Lucht, W.; Schaphoff, S.; Gerten, D.

2013-10-01

250

Influence of the Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Climatology: An Experiment with the JMA Global Model  

Microsoft Academic Search

The influence of the global warming on tropical cyclones has been examined using a high resolution AGCM. Two ten-year integrations were performed with the JMA global model at T106 horizontal resolu- tion. For the control experiment, the observed SST for the period 1979-1988 is prescribed, while for the doubling CO2 (2 ? CO2) experiment, SST anomaly due to the global

Masato SUGI; Akira NODA; Nobuo SATO

2002-01-01

251

Projection of Global Warming using an Empirical Model of Climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An empirical model of climate based on multiple linear regression of the century-long global surface temperature record is used to quantify the rise in global average temperature in 2053, the time CO2 reaches 560 ppm (2x pre-industrial) in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This rise in temperature is inherently uncertain due to the cantilevering of aerosol radiative forcing and climate feedback, coupled with the projection that aerosol radiative forcing will diminish in the coming decades due to air quality concerns. We show that, considering this cantilevering, the rise in global temperature at the time CO2 doubles will likely be between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius (relative to a 1961 to 1990 baseline). This empirically driven estimate of future warming is considerably less than projected by CMIP5 models.

Canty, Tim; Hope, Austin; Mascioli, Nora; Salawitch, Ross

2014-05-01

252

Global warming: Energy efficiency is key to reduce dangerous threat  

SciTech Connect

A consensus is growing among scientists, policymakers and citizens that human activity is altering the Earth's climate. Humans are loading carbon dioxide, methane and other pollutants into the atmosphere through deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels. The result, scientists say: pollutants are accelerating the greenhouse effect which is raising the average global temperature. A few degree temperature increase is projected to make major changes in agriculture and many other things. A growing number of scientists believe if these pollutants are not reduced, global warming could destroy the Earth's climatic balance on which our civilization rests, causing disruptions such as heat waves, droughts, coastal flooding and a rise in sea level. Clearly, all the facts about global warming, its exact causes and repercussions on the earth's climate, are not yet in. However, one thing is certain: We are not helpless and we can act now to reduce greenhouse gases through energy efficiency and halting deforestation. While energy efficiency, itself, is not a panacea, it is both an economic opportunity and environmental necessity for out nation, and for our earth.

Not Available

1989-09-01

253

Forests and global warming mitigation in Brazil: opportunities in the Brazilian forest sector for responses to global warming under the “clean development mechanism”  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Kyoto Protocol created global warming response opportunities through the clean development mechanism that allow countries like Brazil to receive investments from companies and governments wishing to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases. Brazil has a special place in strategies for combating global warming because its vast areas of tropical forest represent a potentially large source of emissions if deforested.

Philip M. Fearnside

1999-01-01

254

Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Globally increasing temperatures may have unmanageable impacts on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems. Quantifying impacts worldwide and systematically as a function of global warming is critical to substantiate the ongoing international negotiations on climate mitigation targets. Here we present a macro-scale analysis of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems based on newly developed sets of climate scenarios featuring a step-wise sampling of global mean temperature increase between 1.5 and 5 K by 2100. These are processed by a biogeochemical model (LPJmL) to derive an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical and structural shifts in land surface properties which we interpret as a proxy for the risk of shifts and possibly disruptions in ecosystems. Our results show a substantial risk of climate change to transform terrestrial ecosystems profoundly. Nearly no area of the world is free from such risk, unless strong mitigation limits warming to around 2 degrees above preindustrial level. Even then, most climate models agree that up to one fifth of the land surface may experience at least moderate change, primarily at high latitudes and high altitudes. If countries fulfill their current emissions pledges, resulting in roughly 3.5 K of warming, this area expands to cover half the land surface, including the majority of tropical forests and savannas and the boreal zone. Due to differences in regional patterns of climate change the area potentially at risk of severe ecosystem change considering all AOGCMs is up to 2.5 times as large as for a single AOGCM.

Ostberg, S.; Lucht, W.; Schaphoff, S.; Gerten, D.

2013-05-01

255

Northern hemisphere glaciation during the globally warm early Late Pliocene.  

PubMed

The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ?3.0 million years ago) is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS) M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ?3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Here we propose a conceptual model for the glaciation and deglaciation of MIS M2 based on geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect. Our records show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the continental ice sheets during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Sea level drop during this glaciation halted the inflow of Pacific water to the Atlantic via the Central American Seaway, allowing the build-up of a Caribbean Warm Pool. Once this warm pool was large enough, the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current system was reinvigorated, leading to significant northward heat transport that terminated the glaciation. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the North Atlantic Current was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century. PMID:24349081

De Schepper, Stijn; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Naafs, B David A; Van Renterghem, Cédéric; Hennissen, Jan; Head, Martin J; Louwye, Stephen; Fabian, Karl

2013-01-01

256

Does warming affect older soil carbon differently than young soil carbon?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Soils are a large reservoir of terrestrial carbon (C), which have the potential to form a positive feedback to global warming if they release more CO2 to the atmosphere as temperatures increase. It is well known that warming increases the decomposition rate of new soil organic matter, but the amount of old soil carbon released by warming is a subject

F. M. Hopkins; M. S. Torn; S. E. Trumbore

2008-01-01

257

Intermittent warm blood cardioplegia does not provide adequate myocardial resuscitation after global ischaemiaq  

Microsoft Academic Search

Objective: Intermittent warm blood cardioplegia is controversial, and many surgeons consider it inadequate for myocardial protection. The purpose of this study was to compare intermittent and continuous warm blood cardioplegia as resuscitation in hearts exposed to global ischaemia. Methods: Pigs were put on cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) and subjected to 30 min of warm, ''unprotected'', global ischaemia, followed by continuous (nà

Anders B. Ericsson; Tsutomu Kawakami; Jarle Vaage

258

Intermittent warm blood cardioplegia does not provide adequate myocardial resuscitation after global ischaemia  

Microsoft Academic Search

Objective: Intermittent warm blood cardioplegia is controversial, and many surgeons consider it inadequate for myocardial protection. The purpose of this study was to compare intermittent and continuous warm blood cardioplegia as resuscitation in hearts exposed to global ischaemia. Methods: Pigs were put on cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) and subjected to 30min of warm, “unprotected”, global ischaemia, followed by continuous (n=7) or

Anders B. Ericsson; Tsutomu Kawakami; Jarle Vaage

1999-01-01

259

The rising tide: Global warming and world sea levels  

SciTech Connect

The author presents a broad-based and well-written approach to the impacts of sea level rise. Besides chapters on global warming, sources of sea level variability and the future, the effects on coastal nations, the book contains an important action-oriented discussion of proposed legislation and guidelines for planning and management aimed at reducing loss and damage produced by sea-level rise. The list of acknowledgements includes all the leading practitioners in the field. The references and information are current; reports and information from 1989 and 1990 meetings are included.

Edgerton, L.T.

1991-01-01

260

Global warming mitigation potential of biogas plants in India.  

PubMed

Biogas technology, besides supplying energy and manure, provides an excellent opportunity for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and reducing global warming through substituting firewood for cooking, kerosene for lighting and cooking and chemical fertilizers. A study was undertaken to calculate (1) global warming mitigation potential (GMP) and thereby earning carbon credit of a family size biogas plant in India, (2) GMP of the existing and target biogas plants in the country and (3) atmospheric pollution reduction by a family size biogas plant. The GMP of a family size biogas plant was 9.7 t CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and with the current price of US $10 t( - 1) CO(2) equiv., carbon credit of US $97 year( - 1) could be earned from such reduction in greenhouse gas emission under the clean development mechanism (CDM). A family size biogas plant substitutes 316 L of kerosene, 5,535 kg firewood and 4,400 kg cattle dung cake as fuels which will reduce emissions of NOx, SO(2), CO and volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere by 16.4, 11.3, 987.0 and 69.7 kg year( - 1), respectively. Presently 3.83 million biogas plants are operating in the country, which can mitigate global warming by 37 Mt CO(2) equiv. year( - 1). Government of India has a target of installing 12.34 million biogas plants by 2010. This target has a GMP of 120 Mt CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and US $1,197 million as carbon credit under the CDM. However, if all the collectible cattle dung (225 Mt) produced in the country is used, 51.2 million family size biogas plants can be supported which will have a GMP of 496 Mt of CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and can earn US $4,968 million as carbon credit. The reduction in global warming should encourage policy makers to promote biogas technology to combat climate change and integration of carbon revenues will help the farmers to develop biogas as a profitable activity. PMID:18843544

Pathak, H; Jain, N; Bhatia, A; Mohanty, S; Gupta, Navindu

2009-10-01

261

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.  

PubMed

Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales. PMID:23858443

Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

2013-08-20

262

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming  

PubMed Central

Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C?1 and 1.2 m °C?1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C?1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U.; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A.; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

2013-01-01

263

Global warming, drought events, and GPP performance (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest decade recorded since the start of modern measurements in 1850, according to a new report on July 3, 2013 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Global warming may now be exacerbating droughts in the world, and leading to more reduction in crop production, plant growth and hence carbon fixation, and further warming climate. How do we quantify the relationship between drought event and ecosystem performance? Here, we developed a method called 'perfect-deficit approach' and a local dryness index based on eddy-flux measurements. We applied these concepts and mathematical method to remote sensing observations (MODIS) to examine the world ecosystem performance in the first decade of 21st century and identify the associated climate extremes. The initial results show that the deficits of ecosystem performances in lower latitudes were caused mainly by drought events, while at high latitudes cold/warm events also exert substantial influences on ecosystem performances, particularly in spring season. Acknowledgements This research was financially supported by PSC-CUNY Award (PSC-CUNY-ENHC-44-83)

Yi, C.; Jensen, K.; Wei, S.; Hendrey, G.

2013-12-01

264

Cold snaps still a threat despite global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long stretches of extreme cold weather can cause serious damage to agriculture as well as to transportation, water, and energy infrastructure. Cold snaps have the potential to kill people, with deaths attributed to cold weather often outpacing those caused by extreme heat. With climate projections anticipating at least 2deg;C increases in global average temperature by the end of the century, some regional planners may be taking solace in the idea that the threat of cold weather extremes could fade as the world warms. Research by Kodra et al., however, suggests that on a global scale the intensity and duration of extreme cold weather events will persist and in some regions will possibly even increase by the end of the 21st century. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/ 2011GL047103, 2011)

Schultz, Colin

2011-07-01

265

Independent confirmation of global land warming without the use of station temperatures  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Confidence in estimates of anthropogenic climate change is limited by known issues with air temperature observations from land stations. Station siting, instrument changes, changing observing practices, urban effects, land cover, land use variations, and statistical processing have all been hypothesized as affecting the trends presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others. Any artifacts in the observed decadal and centennial variations associated with these issues could have important consequences for scientific understanding and climate policy. We use a completely different approach to investigate global land warming over the 20th century. We have ignored all air temperature observations and instead inferred them from observations of barometric pressure, sea surface temperature, and sea-ice concentration using a physically based data assimilation system called the 20th Century Reanalysis. This independent data set reproduces both annual variations and centennial trends in the temperature data sets, demonstrating the robustness of previous conclusions regarding global warming.

Compo, Gilbert P.; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.; Whitaker, Jeffrey S.; Brohan, Philip; Jones, Philip D.; McColl, Chesley

2013-06-01

266

The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Part 1, Progress report  

SciTech Connect

During the past three years we have conducted several studies using models and a combination of satellite data, in situ meteorological and oceanic data, and paleoclimate reconstructions, under the DoE program, ``Quantifying the Link Between Change in Radiative Balance and Atmospheric Temperature``. Our goals were to investigate effects of global cloudiness variations on global climate and their implications for cloud feedback and continue development and application of NYU transient climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by both the clouds and oceans. Our original research plan emphasized the use of cloud, surface temperature and ocean data sets interpreted by focused climate/ocean models to develop a cloud radiative forcing scenario for the past 100 years and to assess the transient climate response; to narrow key uncertainties in the system; and to identify those aspects of the climate system most likely to be affected by greenhouse warming over short, medium and long time scales.

Hoffert, M.I.

1992-12-01

267

The Effects of Global Warming on Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Northeast America  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The objective of this paper is to discuss the analysis of results in temperature and precipitation (rainfall) data and how they are affected by the theory of global warming in Northeast America. The topic was chosen because it will show the trends in temperature and precipitation and their relations to global warming. Data was collected from The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The data range from years of 1973 to 2012. We were able to calculate the yearly and monthly regress to estimate the relationship of variables found in the individual sources. With the use of specially designed software, analysis and manual calculations we are able to give a visualization of these trends in precipitation and temperature and to question if these trends are due to the theory of global warming. With the Calculation of the trends in slope we were able to interpret the changes in minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. Precipitation had a 9.5 % increase over the past forty years, while maximum temperature increased 1.9 %, a greater increase is seen in minimum temperature of 3.3 % was calculated over the years. The trends in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature is statistically significant at a 95% level.

Francis, F.

2013-12-01

268

Global warming and oil spills could cool shoaling reefs  

SciTech Connect

High water temperature generated on reef flats have been implicated as one of the factors determining the ecological patterns and structural morphologies peculiar to shoaling reefs. In approximately ten years of water temperature and water level data from a shoaling reef flat at Punta Galeta (Caribbean Panama), water temperatures were dependent on water levels. Water temperatures ranged up to 38[degrees]C when daily minimum water depths over the reef crest were < 12 cm, but never exceeded 30[degrees]C when the minimum water levels were > 12 cm. If conservative predictions of sea level rise caused by global warming are correct, normal vertical accretion rates of the reef flat could keep pace with rising sea level until the middle of the next century; after that the occurrence of high water temperatures would be rapidly reduced. However, damage from an oil spill at Punta Galeta in 1986 was concentrated at the seaward margin of the reef flat, where biogenic processes control the overall vertical accretion of the reef platform. By slowing rates of vertical accretion, oil impact could potentially accelerate the effects of global warming on the ecology and morphology of the reef.

Cubit, J.D. (Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst., Apdo (Panama))

1990-01-09

269

Global warming benefits the small in aquatic ecosystems  

PubMed Central

Understanding the ecological impacts of climate change is a crucial challenge of the twenty-first century. There is a clear lack of general rules regarding the impacts of global warming on biota. Here, we present a metaanalysis of the effect of climate change on body size of ectothermic aquatic organisms (bacteria, phyto- and zooplankton, and fish) from the community to the individual level. Using long-term surveys, experimental data and published results, we show a significant increase in the proportion of small-sized species and young age classes and a decrease in size-at-age. These results are in accordance with the ecological rules dealing with the temperature–size relationships (i.e., Bergmann's rule, James' rule and Temperature–Size Rule). Our study provides evidence that reduced body size is the third universal ecological response to global warming in aquatic systems besides the shift of species ranges toward higher altitudes and latitudes and the seasonal shifts in life cycle events.

Daufresne, Martin; Lengfellner, Kathrin; Sommer, Ulrich

2009-01-01

270

Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations  

PubMed Central

Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local intermodel agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of intermodel agreement: the Caribbean/Central-American region.

Neelin, J. D.; Munnich, M.; Su, H.; Meyerson, J. E.; Holloway, C. E.

2006-01-01

271

Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming  

PubMed Central

The impact of projected global warming on crop yields has been evaluated by indirect methods using simulation models. Direct studies on the effects of observed climate change on crop growth and yield could provide more accurate information for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature by using data from irrigated field experiments conducted at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1992 to 2003. Here we report that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.35°C and 1.13°C, respectively, for the period 1979–2003 and a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January to April). Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1°C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming.

Peng, Shaobing; Huang, Jianliang; Sheehy, John E.; Laza, Rebecca C.; Visperas, Romeo M.; Zhong, Xuhua; Centeno, Grace S.; Khush, Gurdev S.; Cassman, Kenneth G.

2004-01-01

272

Quantifying Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to Global Warming Pattern Formation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The ';';climate feedback-response analysis method'' (CFRAM) was applied to the NCAR CCSM3.0 simulation to analyze the strength and spatial distribution of climate feedbacks and to quantify their contributions to global and regional surface temperature changes in response to a doubling of CO2. Instead of analyzing the climate sensitivity, the CFRAM directly attributes the temperature change to individual radiative and non-radiative feedbacks. The radiative feedback decomposition is based on hourly model output rather than monthly mean data that are commonly used in climate feedback analysis. This gives a more accurate quantification of the cloud and albedo feedbacks. The process-based decomposition of non-radiative feedback enables us to understand the roles of GCM physical and dynamic processes in climate change. The pattern correlation, the centered root-mean-square (RMS) difference and the ratio of variations (represented by standard deviations) between the partial surface temperature change due to each feedback process and the total surface temperature change in CCSM3.0 simulation are examined to quantify the roles of each feedback process in the global warming pattern formation. The contributions of climate feedbacks to the regional warming are also discussed.

Song, X.; Zhang, G. J.; Cai, M.

2013-12-01

273

Changes in ENSO-related PDO due to global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant atmosphere-ocean coupled mode in the equatorial Pacific region. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been described by some as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. Although there are several mechanisms to explain such multi-year persistence of upper ocean temperature anomalies, the origin to cause PDO variability remains unclear. In this study, we examine the characteristics of ENSO-related PDO under a warmer climate state using climate model results of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In particular, we focus on changes in PDO characteristics in relation to ENSO by directly comparing the RCP45 climate change projections with the historical control run. Our preliminary results indicate that a linear relationship between PDO and ENSO is significantly stronger in RCP45 experiment than in the historical experiment. Possibly, such change may be due to changes in ENSO properties or changes in tropics-midlatitude teleconnection under global warming. We investigate changes in spatial structure and influenceable factors of ENSO and ENDO-related PDO variability under the global warming climate.

Kim, H.; Kwon, M.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

274

Changes in ENSO-related PDO due to global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant atmosphere-ocean coupled mode in the equatorial Pacific region. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been described by some as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. Although there are several mechanisms to explain such multi-year persistence of upper ocean temperature anomalies, the origin to cause PDO variability remains unclear. In this study, we examine the characteristics of ENSO-related PDO under a warmer climate state using climate model results of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In particular, we focus on changes in PDO characteristics in relation to ENSO by directly comparing the RCP45 climate change projections with the historical control run. Our preliminary results indicate that a linear relationship between PDO and ENSO is significantly stronger in RCP45 experiment than in the historical experiment. Possibly, such change may be due to changes in ENSO properties or changes in tropics-midlatitude teleconnection under global warming. We investigate changes in spatial structure and influenceable factors of ENSO and ENDO-related PDO variability under the global warming climate.

Kwon, MinHo; Kim, Hera; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2013-04-01

275

Effects of global warming on fish reproductive endocrine axis, with special emphasis in pejerrey Odontesthes bonariensis.  

PubMed

The ongoing of global warming trend has led to an increase in temperature of several water bodies. Reproduction in fish, compared with other physiological processes, only occurs in a bounded temperature range; therefore, small changes in water temperature could significantly affect this process. This review provides evidence that fish reproduction may be directly affected by further global warming and that abnormal high water temperature impairs the expression of important genes throughout the brain-pituitary-gonad axis. In all fishes studied, gonads seem to be the organ more readily damaged by heat treatments through the inhibition of the gene expression and subsequent synthesis of different gonadal steroidogenic enzymes. In view of the feedback role of sex steroids upon the synthesis and release of GnRH and GtHs in fish, it is possible that the inhibition observed at brain and pituitary levels in treated fish is consequence of the sharp decrease in plasma steroids levels. Results of in vitro studies on the inhibition of pejerrey gonad aromatase expression by high temperature corroborate that ovary functions are directly disrupted by high temperature independently of the brain-pituitary axis. For the reproductive responses obtained in laboratory fish studies, it is plausible to predict changes in the timing and magnitude of reproductive activity or even the total failure of spawning season may occur in warm years, reducing annual reproductive output and affecting future populations. PMID:23500677

Miranda, Leandro Andrés; Chalde, Tomás; Elisio, Mariano; Strüssmann, Carlos Augusto

2013-10-01

276

Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Background: The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives: The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods: We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented

Gowri Koneswaran; Danielle Nierenberg

2008-01-01

277

The zonal mean circulation response to global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

One of the robust changes in the global circulation due to global warming is the poleward shift of the midlatitude jet stream. The mechanisms for the circulation response have been a topic of interest with previous studies using barotropic models attributing these changes to extratropical causes (e.g. Chen et al 2007, Kidston et al 2011). Recent studies considering the diffusive nature of the eddies attributes the shift to the resultant down-gradient eddy PV flux (Butler et al 2011), however Chen et al (2012) and Lu et al (2013) argue that the change in the effective diffusivity is more essential than the change in PV gradient itself. To understand the dynamical mechanisms for the shift, we perform large-ensemble transient simulations using NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) with a sudden switchon of the climate forcings of interest, in particular, a uniform 4K SST perturbation. The finite-amplitude wave activity budget in baroclinic flow developed by Nakamura and collaborators (Nakamura and Zhu, 2010; Nakamura and Solomon, 2010) is used in our diagnostic study to look into how the different dynamical processes constrain the eddy PV flux, which controls the eddy-driven circulation. Similar to the idealized studies of Chen et al (2012) we identified the source for the sudden onset of the momentum forcing for the poleward shift as an anomalous divergence of EP flux resulting from a reduction of effective diffusivity and associated dissipation of wave activities. This study enhance our confidence in the earlier proposition that the changing statistics of wave breakings and the associated mixing of PV are crucial to the shift of the zonal mean circulation patterns. This result may have important bearings on the changing statistics of the precipitation extreme in the subtropics and mid-latitudes under global warming.

Palipane, E.; Lu, J.; Solomon, A. L.

2013-12-01

278

Global warming possibly linked to an enhanced risk of suicide: Data from Italy, 1974–2003  

Microsoft Academic Search

BackgroundThe global increase in surface temperature (known as global warming) was found to impact on mortality through ill health, particularly among the elderly and in summer. This study sets out to explore the impact of global warming on suicide mortality, using data from Italy.

A. Preti; G. Lentini; M. Maugeri

2007-01-01

279

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast. Part A The Greenhouse Effect.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Provides information necessary for an interdisciplinary analysis of the greenhouse effect, enhanced greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and scientific study of global warming for students grades 4-12. Several activity ideas accompany the information. (LZ)

Andrews, Bill

1993-01-01

280

Snow: a reliable indicator for global warming in the future?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The cryosphere consists of water in the solid form at the Earth's surface and includes, among others, snow, sea ice, glaciers and ice sheets. Since the 1990s the cryosphere and its components have often been considered as indicators of global warming because rising temperatures can enhance the melting of solid water (e.g. Barry et al 1993, Goodison and Walker 1993, Armstrong and Brun 2008). Changes in the cryosphere are often easier to recognize than a global temperature rise of a couple of degrees: many locals and tourists have hands-on experience in changes in the extent of glaciers or the duration of winter snow cover on the Eurasian and North American continents. On a more scientific basis, the last IPCC report left no doubt: the amount of snow and ice on Earth is decreasing (Lemke et al 2007). Available data showed clearly decreasing trends in the sea ice and frozen ground extent of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the global glacier mass balance. However, the trend in the snow cover extent (SCE) of the NH was much more ambiguous; a result that has since been confirmed by the online available up-to-date analysis of the SCE performed by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab (climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/). The behavior of snow is not the result of a simple cause-and-effect relationship between air temperature and snow. It is instead related to a rather complex interplay between external meteorological parameters and internal processes in the snowpack. While air temperature is of course a crucial parameter for snow and its melting, precipitation and radiation are also important. Further physical properties like snow grain size and the amount of absorbing impurities in the snow determine the fraction of absorbed radiation. While all these parameters affect the energy budget of the snowpack, each of these variables can dominate depending on the season or, more generally, on environmental conditions. As a result, the reduction in SCE in spring and summer in the NH was attributed to faster melting because of higher air temperatures, while the winter months (December to February) saw an increase in the SCE due to increased precipitation (Lemke et al >2007). Cohen et al (2012) confirmed these opposing effects in the SCE and showed that on the Eurasian continent the average SCE in October has increased by approximately 3 × 106 km2 in the last two decades; a growth of almost 40%, corresponding to roughly 1.5 times the area of Greenland. For the same period, Cohen et al (2012) found a negligible trend in the average temperatures above the continents of the NH for the winter months despite a significant increase in the annual mean temperature for the same regions. Cohen et al (2012) propose the following link between temperatures and snow: the reduced sea ice cover of the Arctic Ocean and the enhanced air temperatures in fall cause higher evaporation from the Arctic Ocean, leading to increased tropospheric moisture in the Arctic. More moisture results in more snowfall over the Eurasian continent, increasing the SCE. The increased snow cover strengthens the Siberian High, a strong anticyclonic system generally persistent between October and April. This system is strong enough to affect weather patterns in large parts of the NH, resulting in changes in the large-scale circulation of the NH (Panagiotopoulos et al 2005). As a result, outbreaks of cold Arctic air masses into the mid-latitudes are more frequent, leading to low temperatures over the eastern part of North America and Northern Eurasia. According to Cohen et al (2012), these are exactly the same regions that have experienced a cooling trend in the winter temperature over the past twenty years. While this chain of events is plausible (and some are confirmed by observations), existing climate models are not yet capable of reproducing these processes. On the contrary, Cohen et al (2012) showed that they predict a slightly decreasing SCE in October for Eurasia and an increase in winter temperatures over the continents in the NH. This is not surprising because the simu

Jacobi, H.-W.

2012-03-01

281

Climate extremes and ecosystem productivity in global warming simulations  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ecosystem responses to present-day droughts and heat-waves are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts on ecosystems, under the assumption that the temperature above which vegetation experiences heat and drought stress is invariant with changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration. Understanding how the impacts of temperature extremes on ecosystems can change with climate change is essential for correctly evaluating and developing Earth System Models (ESMs). The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) historical and future (RCP8.5) climate predictions were analyzed in this study to illustrate non-stationarity of climate impacts on ecosystems, as evident by changes in the distribution of Gross Primary Production (GPP) as a function of temperature between future and historical climates. These changes consist of (1) a uniform shift in the GPP distribution toward warmer temperatures between future and historical climates, and (2) a proportional increase in GPP at all temperatures, consistent with CO2 fertilization. The temperature at which GPP has a local maximum within a given climate increases with global warming and closely tracks the change in mean temperature for each ecosystem. This maximum GPP temperature can be conceptualized as a stable equilibrium determined by the temperature at which an increase in plant water stress is compensated by a decrease in light stress (decreasing cloud cover) with increasing temperature. Temperature relative to the temperature of maximum GPP is proposed as an improved measure of climate extremes more relevant to ecosystem productivity than absolute temperature. The percentage change in GPP attributed to changes in relative temperature extremes is up to 3% per K (decrease in GPP), and reflects both an increase in the frequency of climate extremes in global warming scenarios and the change in temperature criteria for negative climate impacts on ecosystem productivity. Temperature at GPP maximum as a function of the growing season average temperature, for each ecosystem type. Lengths of crosshairs indicate the standard error of the CMIP5 ensemble average. Both future and historical averages are shown (the temperature of GPP maximum increases monotonically with growing season average temperature between future and historical simulations).

Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; Wehner, M. F.; Collins, W.

2013-12-01

282

Interpretation of simulated global warming using a simple model  

SciTech Connect

A simple energy balance model with two parameters, an effective heat capacity and an effective climate sensitivity, is used to interpret six GCM simulations of greenhouse gas-induced global warming. By allowing the parameters to vary in time, the model can be accurately calibrated for each run. It is found that the sensitivity can be approximated as a constant in each case. However, the effective heat capacity clearly varies, and it is important that the energy equation is formulated appropriately, and thus unlike many such models. For simulations with linear forcing and from a cold start, the capacity is in each case close to that of a homogeneous ocean with depth initially 200 m, but increasing some 4.3 m each year, irrespective of the sensitivity and forcing growth rate. Analytic solutions for t his linear capacity function are derived, and these reproduce the GCM runs well, even for cases where the forcing is stabilized after a century or so. The formation of a subsurface maximum in the mean ocean temperature anomaly is a significant feature of such cases. A simple model for a GCM run with a realistic forcing scenario starting from 1,880 is constructed using component results for forcing segments. Given this, an estimate of the cold start error of a simulation of the warming due to forcing after the present would be given by the negative of the temperature drift of the anomaly due to the past forcing. The simple model can evidently be used to give an indication of likely warming curves, at lest for this range of scenarios and GCM sensitivities.

Watterson, I.G.

2000-01-01

283

The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)—a measure of air pressure difference across the Pacific Ocean, from Tahiti in the south-east to Darwin in the west—is one of the world's most important climatic indices. The SOI is used to track and predict changes in both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and the Walker Circulation (WC). During El Niño, for example, the WC weakens and the SOI tends to be negative. Climatic variations linked to changes in the WC have a profound influence on climate, ecosystems, agriculture, and societies in many parts of the world. Previous research has shown that (1) the WC and the SOI weakened in recent decades and that (2) the WC in climate models tends to weaken in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we examine changes in the SOI and air pressure across the Pacific in the observations and in numerous WCRP/CMIP3 climate model integrations for both the 20th and 21st centuries. The difference in mean-sea level air pressure (MSLP) between the eastern and western equatorial Pacific tends to weaken during the 21st century, consistent with previous research. Here we show that this primarily arises because of an increase in MSLP in the west Pacific and not a decline in the east. We also show, in stark contrast to expectations, that the SOI actually tends to increase during the 21st century, not decrease. Under global warming MSLP tends to increase at both Darwin and Tahiti, but tends to rise more at Tahiti than at Darwin. Tahiti lies in an extensive region where MSLP tends to rise in response to global warming. So while the SOI is an excellent indicator of interannual variability in both the equatorial MSLP gradient and the WC, it is a highly misleading indicator of long-term equatorial changes linked to global warming. Our results also indicate that the observed decline in the SOI in recent decades has been driven by natural, internally generated variability. The externally forced signal in the June-December SOI during 2010 is estimated to be approximately 5% of the standard deviation of variability in the SOI during the 20th century. This figure is projected to increase to 40% by the end of the 21st century under the A2 SRES scenario. The 2010 global warming signal is already a major contributor to interdecadal variability in the SOI, equal to 45% of the standard deviation of 30-year running averages of the SOI. This figure is projected to increase to nearly 340% by the end of the 21st century. Implications that these discoveries have for understanding recent climatic change and for seasonal prediction are discussed.

Power, Scott B.; Kociuba, Greg

2011-11-01

284

More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Using a very high resolution global climate model (~25 km grid size) with prescribed sea surface temperatures we have investigated the change in the occurrence of hurricane-force (> 32.6 m/s) storms over Western Europe due to climate change. The results show a large increase during early autumn (Aug-Oct). The majority of these storms originate as a tropical cyclone. Using SST sensitivity experiments we have tested the hypothesis that the increase is due to the rise in Atlantic tropical SST thereby extending eastwards the breeding ground of tropical cyclones, yielding more frequent and intense hurricanes following pathways directed towards Europe. En route they transform into extra-tropical depressions and re-intensify after merging with the mid-latitude baroclinic unstable flow. Detailed analysis indicates that the development of a warm seclusion is the main mechanism for the re-intensification and that the hurricane winds are caused by a sting jet.

Haarsma, Reindert; Hazeleger, Wilco; Severijns, Camiel; de Vries, Hylke; Ster, Andreas; Bintanja, Richard; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van den Brink, Henk; Baatsen, Michiel

2014-05-01

285

A set of experiments to understand global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We have developed a set of experiments addressed to pupils from the age of 14 to teach the basic causes and effects of global warming. Through ten experiments conducted in turns by the pupils themselves, they will understand the physics, biology and chemistry of the main issues linked to the increase in greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. More specifically, the hand-made, low-cost material, allow the students to discover and experiment the science of the greenhouse effect, sea level rise, ocean circulation, ocean acidification, species relocation and extinction, differential heating according to the albedo, carbon cycle, and photosynthesis. Technical notes give background theory input. All the experiments can easily be reproduced.

Bouquelle, Veronique; Bauwens, Anne; De Bont, Adele; Kivits, Sandrine; Marbaix, Philippe

2014-05-01

286

Global Warming Will Bring New Fungal Diseases for Mammals  

PubMed Central

ABSTRACT Fungi are major pathogens of plants, other fungi, rotifers, insects, and amphibians, but relatively few cause disease in mammals. Fungi became important human pathogens only in the late 20th century, primarily in hosts with impaired immunity as a consequence of medical interventions or HIV infection. The relatively high resistance of mammals has been attributed to a combination of a complex immune system and endothermy. Mammals maintain high body temperatures relative to environmental temperatures, creating a thermally restrictive ambient for the majority of fungi. According to this view, protection given by endothermy requires a temperature gradient between those of mammals and the environment. We hypothesize that global warming will increase the prevalence of fungal diseases in mammals by two mechanisms: (i) increasing the geographic range of currently pathogenic species and (ii) selecting for adaptive thermotolerance for species with significant pathogenic potential but currently not pathogenic by virtue of being restricted by mammalian temperatures.

Garcia-Solache, Monica A.; Casadevall, Arturo

2010-01-01

287

Global warming potential assessment for CF3OCF = CF2  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We have examined CF3OCF = CF2 regarding its reactivity toward OH radical, its infrared spectroscopic properties, its atmospheric lifetime, and its radiative forcing. From these we then determined the Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for CF3OCF = CF2. The examination is completed using a combination of discharge flow coupled with mass spectrometer and resonance fluorescence (DF/MS/RF), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, ab initio molecular orbital calculation, and atmospheric and radiative transfer modeling. Mass spectral evidence suggests that both HF and CF3OCFC(O)F are products from the reaction of CF3OCF = CF2 with OH. The Arrhenius expression for CF3OCF = CF2 + OH is determined to be k1 = (6.41±0.82)×10-11 exp[(-868±40)/T] cm3 molecule-1 s-1 in the temperature range of 253-348 K. The atmospheric lifetime of CF3OCF = CF2 is estimated to be less than 5 days due to the OH attack. The calculated vibrational frequencies using ab initio molecular orbital calculations are in good agreement with FTIR experimental observation for the CF3OCF = CF2 molecule. Both C-O and C-F stretching modes in the CF3OCF = CF2 contribute to prominent absorption in the atmospheric window region. The absolute adjusted radiative forcing at the tropopause due to an increase in the concentration of CF3OCF = CF2 by one part per billion by volume (ppbv) is calculated to be 0.041 W m-2 ppbv-1. The Global Warming Potential for CF3OCF = CF2 is evaluated to be 0.004 for 100-year time horizon.

Li, Zhuangjie; Tao, Zhining; Naik, Vaishali; Good, David A.; Hansen, Jaron C.; Jeong, Gill-Ran; Francisco, Joseph S.; Jain, Atul K.; Wuebbles, Donald J.

2000-02-01

288

Predicting the global warming potential of agro-ecosystems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane are the main biogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate thus requires a capacity to predict the net exchanges of these gases in an integrated manner, as related to environmental conditions and crop management. Here, we used two year-round data sets from two intensively-monitored cropping systems in northern France to test the ability of the biophysical crop model CERES-EGC to simulate GHG exchanges at the plot-scale. The experiments involved maize and rapeseed crops on a loam and rendzina soils, respectively. The model was subsequently extrapolated to predict CO2 and N2O fluxes over an entire crop rotation. Indirect emissions (IE) arising from the production of agricultural inputs and from cropping operations were also added to the final GWP. One experimental site (involving a wheat-maize-barley rotation on a loamy soil) was a net source of GHG with a GWP of 350 kg CO2-C eq ha-1 yr-1, of which 75% were due to IE and 25% to direct N2O emissions. The other site (involving an oilseed rape-wheat-barley rotation on a rendzina) was a net sink of GHG for -250 kg CO2-C eq ha-1 yr-1, mainly due to a higher predicted C sequestration potential and C return from crops. Such modelling approach makes it possible to test various agronomic management scenarios, in order to design productive agro-ecosystems with low global warming impact.

Lehuger, S.; Gabrielle, B.; Larmanou, E.; Laville, P.; Cellier, P.; Loubet, B.

2007-04-01

289

Good enough tools for global warming policy making.  

PubMed

We present a simple analysis of the global warming problem caused by the emissions of CO2 (a major greenhouse gas) into the atmosphere resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. We provide quantitative tools which enable policymakers and interested citizens to explore the following issues central to the global warming problem. (i) At what rate are we permitted to continue to emit CO2 after the global average atmospheric concentration has 'stabilized' at some chosen target level? The answer here provides the magnitude of the effort, measured by the necessary total reduction of today's global (annual) emissions rate to achieve stabilization. We shall see that stabilized emissions rates for all interesting stabilized concentration levels are much lower than the current emissions rate, but these small finite values are very important. (ii) Across how many years can we spread the total effort to reduce the annual CO2 emissions rate from its current high value to the above-mentioned low and stabilized target value? The answer here provides the time-scale of the total mitigation effort for any chosen atmospheric concentration target level. We confirm the common understanding that targets below a doubling of the pre-industrial concentration create great pressure to produce action immediately, while targets above double the pre-industrial level can tolerate longer periods of inaction. (iii) How much harder is the future mitigation effort, if we do not do our share of the job now? Is it a good idea to overshoot a stabilization target? The quantitative answers here provide the penalty of procrastination. For example, the mitigation task to avoid doubling the pre-industrial level is a problem that can be addressed gradually, over a period extending more than a century, if started immediately, but procrastination can turn the effort into a much more urgent task that extends over only a few decades. We also find that overshooting target levels is a bad idea. The quality of public discourse on this subject could be much enhanced if ball-park quantitative answers to these questions were more widely known. PMID:17272240

Socolow, R H; Lam, S H

2007-04-15

290

Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming.  

PubMed

Mountains, especially in the tropics, harbour a unique and large portion of the world's biodiversity. Their geographical isolation, limited range size and unique environmental adaptations make montane species potentially the most threatened under impeding climate change. Here, we provide a global baseline assessment of geographical range contractions and extinction risk of high-elevation specialists in a future warmer world. We consider three dispersal scenarios for simulated species and for the world's 1009 montane bird species. Under constrained vertical dispersal (VD), species with narrow vertical distributions are strongly impacted; at least a third of montane bird diversity is severely threatened. In a scenario of unconstrained VD, the location and structure of mountain systems emerge as a strong driver of extinction risk. Even unconstrained lateral movements offer little improvement to the fate of montane species in the Afrotropics, Australasia and Nearctic. Our results demonstrate the particular roles that the geography of species richness, the spatial structure of lateral and particularly vertical range extents and the specific geography of mountain systems have in determining the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change. Our findings confirm the outstanding levels of biotic perturbation and extinction risk that mountain systems are likely to experience under global warming and highlight the need for additional knowledge on species' vertical distributions, dispersal and adaptive capacities. PMID:20534610

La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

2010-11-22

291

Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming  

PubMed Central

Mountains, especially in the tropics, harbour a unique and large portion of the world's biodiversity. Their geographical isolation, limited range size and unique environmental adaptations make montane species potentially the most threatened under impeding climate change. Here, we provide a global baseline assessment of geographical range contractions and extinction risk of high-elevation specialists in a future warmer world. We consider three dispersal scenarios for simulated species and for the world's 1009 montane bird species. Under constrained vertical dispersal (VD), species with narrow vertical distributions are strongly impacted; at least a third of montane bird diversity is severely threatened. In a scenario of unconstrained VD, the location and structure of mountain systems emerge as a strong driver of extinction risk. Even unconstrained lateral movements offer little improvement to the fate of montane species in the Afrotropics, Australasia and Nearctic. Our results demonstrate the particular roles that the geography of species richness, the spatial structure of lateral and particularly vertical range extents and the specific geography of mountain systems have in determining the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change. Our findings confirm the outstanding levels of biotic perturbation and extinction risk that mountain systems are likely to experience under global warming and highlight the need for additional knowledge on species' vertical distributions, dispersal and adaptive capacities.

La Sorte, Frank A.; Jetz, Walter

2010-01-01

292

Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global drylands encompassing hyper-arid, arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid areas cover about 41% of the earth's terrestrial surface and are home to more than a third of the world's population. By analyzing observations for 1948-2008 and climate model simulations for 1948-2100, we show that global drylands have expanded in last sixty years and will continue to expand in the 21st century. By the end of this century, the world's drylands under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario are projected to be 5.8 × 106 km2 (or 10%) larger than in the 1961-1990 climatology. The major expansion of arid regions will occur over southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa, and Australia, while major expansions of semiarid regions will occur over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America. The global dryland expansions will increase the population affected by water scarcity and land degradations.

Feng, S.; Fu, Q.

2013-06-01

293

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming  

PubMed Central

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41–70 Tg CH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

Koven, Charles D.; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-01-01

294

Presenting Global Warming and Evolution as Public Health Issues to Encourage Acceptance of Scientific Evidence  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Although evidence supporting anthropogenic global warming and evolution by natural selection is considerable, the public does not embrace these concepts. The current study explores the hypothesis that individuals will become more receptive to scientific viewpoints if evidence for evolution and implications of global warming are presented as issues…

Stover, Shawn K.; McArthur, Laurence B.; Mabry, Michelle L.

2013-01-01

295

Phase speed spectra and the latitude of surface westerlies: interannual variability and global warming trend  

Microsoft Academic Search

The extratropical annular mode like atmospheric responses to ENSO and global warming, and the internal variability of annular modes are each associated with similar, yet distinct, dynamical characteristics. In particular, La Nina, global warming, and the positive phase of annular modes are all associated with a poleward shift of midlatitude jet streams and surface westerlies. In order to improve understanding

Gang Chen; Jian Lu; Dargan M. W. Frierson

2008-01-01

296

A Future Network for Monitoring the Driving Function of Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

A new future network is proposed to monitor the radiative forcing of global warming by greenhouse gases. The greenhouse radiation is the downward infrared heat radiation from greenhouse gases, otherwise known as the surface forcing radiation. The increase in this radiation due to increased carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is the driving function of global warming. In an experimental

W. F. Evans

2007-01-01

297

Surface reflectance and conversion efficiency dependence of technologies for mitigating global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

A means of assessing the relative impact of different renewable energy technologies on global warming has been developed. All power plants emit thermal energy to the atmosphere. Fossil fuel power plants also emit CO2 which accumulates in the atmosphere and provides an indirect increase in global warming via the greenhouse effect. A fossil fuel power plant may operate for some

Ian Edmonds; Geoff Smith

2011-01-01

298

A modeling-GIS approach for assessing irrigation effects on soil salinisation under global warming conditions  

Microsoft Academic Search

Soil salinisation is very often due to excessive irrigation. However, irrigation is absolutely essential for obtaining reliable crop yields, particularly under predicted global warming conditions. A simple methodology for assessing the salinisation risk for any water management situation and under predicted global warming conditions is presented. The methodology is illustrated by the assessment of irrigation effects on soil salinity at

Angel Utset; Matilde Borroto

2001-01-01

299

Simulation of the global warming by the one-dimensional simplified earth system model  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global warming, resulting from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is one of the most significant Earth_fs environmental problems. Since global warming is caused by the coupled feedback cycles of energy and carbon, it is essential to assess the impacts of various feedback processes on CO2 uptake by the land and oceans to project future carbon cycle and climate variations. In order

K. Murakami; T. Sasai; K. Ichii; Y. Yamaguchi

2004-01-01

300

Options for controlling the global-warming impact from motor vehicles. Technical report  

Microsoft Academic Search

There is a great deal of interest in the subject of global warming and potential ways to mitigate the impacts of emissions that contribute to global warming. The paper discusses ways to formulate approaches that could be involved in a regulatory program for control of carbon dioxide emissions from cars and light trucks.

R. M. Heavenrich; J. D. Murrell; K. H. Hellman

1989-01-01

301

Urban reactions to the global warming issue: Agenda setting in Toronto and Chicago  

Microsoft Academic Search

Little research has been done about what cities could or should do concerning potential global warming. A few cities have adopted programs to deal with impacts they perceive may occur, and a worldwide network of 100 cities involved with CO2 reduction has recently emerged. Global warming is a new issue for cities and most are only dimly aware of how

W. Henry Lambright; L. D. Danny Harvey

1996-01-01

302

Feedback mechanisms and sensitivities of ocean carbon uptake under global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global warming simulations are performed with a coupled climate model of reduced complexity to investigate global warming-marine carbon cycle feedbacks. The model is forced by emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse agents from scenarios recently developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and by CO 2 stabilization profiles. The uptake of atmospheric CO 2 by the ocean is

G.-K. PLATTNER; F. JOOS; T. F. STOCKER; O. MARCHAL

303

The intensification and shift of the annual North Atlantic Oscillation in a global warming scenario simulation  

Microsoft Academic Search

The impact of global warming on the annual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated with a global warming scenario simulation of the ECHAM4\\/OPYC3 coupled general circulation model. It is shown that the annual meridional pressure gradient over the North Atlantic is significantly strengthened, and the two centers of action of the NAO, the Icelandic low and the Azores high, are

Zeng-Zhen Hu; Zhaohua Wu

2004-01-01

304

The Response of A Coupled Climate Model To Transient Fluxes From A Global Warming Experiment  

Microsoft Academic Search

The response of the UVic Earth System Climate Model to forcing from a global warm- ing run is investigated. Four additional transient experiments were performed to look at the relative contribution of fresh water and heat fluxes. The experiments consisted of prescribing freshwater fluxes, either above or below the sea ice, from a transient global warming run to a present

M. Eby; J. M. Gregory; O. A. Saenko; A. Schmittner; A. J. Weaver

2002-01-01

305

Warming and altered precipitation affect litter decomposition and nitrogen dynamics in a mixed-grass prairie  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litter decomposition and nitrogen dynamics are important processes in ecosystems and how they respond to climate changes is a global concern. In order to explore the effects of warming and altered precipitation on litter decomposition and nitrogen dynamics, we conducted a field decomposition experiment with warming (+3°C) and altered precipitation (half and double) in a mixed-grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA, using litter bags with dominant C3 and C4 grasses since June, 2012. Litter bags were collected every month in the first six months and subsequently every three month thereafter. Remaining litter biomass as well as element concentration were measured in the lab. Warming significantly decreased the litter decomposition rate (k) by 25.4% for C3 grasses and 25.0% for C4 grasses. Doubled precipitation significantly increased the litter decomposition rate by 23.3% for C3 grasses and 30.1% for C4 grasses while half precipitation showed no significant effects. Soil temperature and soil moisture, controlled by warming and altered precipitation, are found to be the most important factors in regulating litter decomposition rate. Warming also decreased N concentration in C3 grasses while doubled precipitation increased N concentration in C4 grasses after one year of field decomposition. During that time, N concentration showed an average increase of 99.6% in C3 grass while only 68.1% in C4 grass. Other elements such as P and K were not much affected by these treatments although there were significant differences between C3 and C4 grasses. Our results suggest that climate change has significant impact on litter decomposition rate, which could influence the carbon balance of the ecosystem. Nutrient dynamics, especially nitrogen, were shown to be specific to plant types under altered climatic conditions. Our results show that conclusion derived from single-factor climate change experiments should be treated with caution due to interactive effects of warming with altered precipitation and differential responses of C3 and C4 plants.

Chen, X.; Luo, Y.; Xu, X.; Li, D.; Niu, S.

2013-12-01

306

Toward a critical anthropology on the impact of global warming on health and human societies.  

PubMed

This op-ed essay urges medical anthropologists to join a growing number of public health scholars to examine the impact of global warming on health. Adopting a critical medical anthropology perspective, I argue that global warming is yet another manifestation of the contradictions of the capitalist world system. Ultimately, an serious effort to mitigate the impact of global warming not only on health but also settlement patterns and subsistence will require the creation of a new global political economy based upon social parity, democratic processes, and environmental sustainability. PMID:18266169

Baer, Hans A

2008-01-01

307

Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

It has been conjectured that global warming will increase the prevalence of insect pests in many agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we quantitatively assess four of the key pests of maize, one of the most important systems in North American grain production. Using empirically generated estimates of pest overwintering thresholds and degree-day requirements, along with climate change projections from a high-resolution climate model, we project potential future ranges for each of these pests in the United States. Our analysis suggests the possibility of increased winter survival and greater degree-day accumulations for each of the pests surveyed. We find that relaxed cold limitation could expand the range of all four pest taxa, including a substantial range expansion in the case of corn earworm (H. zea), a migratory, cold-intolerant pest. Because the corn earworm is a cosmopolitan pest that has shown resistance to insecticides, our results suggest that this expansion could also threaten other crops, including those in high-value areas of the western United States. Because managing significant additional pressure from this suite of established pests would require additional pest management inputs, the projected decreases in cold limitation and increases in heat accumulation have the potential to significantly alter the pest management landscape for North American maize production. Further, these range expansions could have substantial economic impacts through increased seed and insecticide costs, decreased yields, and the downstream effects of changes in crop yield variability.

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Krupke, Christian H.; White, Michael A.; Alexander, Corinne E.

2008-10-01

308

Atmospheric lifetime and global warming potential of a perfluoropolyether.  

PubMed

Perfluoropolyethers (PFPEs) are a family of perfluorinated fluids used mainly in industrial applications. Lower molecular weight commercial PFPE fractions have boiling points ranging between 55 and 270 degrees C, and have the potential to escape into the atmosphere. To improve our understanding of the atmospheric chemistry of PFPEs, a distilled fraction of a commercial mixture containing perfluoropolymethylisopropyl ethers (PFPMIEs) was introduced into an atmospheric chamber system. Relative rate techniques were used to determine upper limits for the rate constants for reactions of OH and Cl with PFPMIE in 700 Torr of air at 296 K. The reactivity of PFPMIE with Cl was less than 2 x 10(-17) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1), while the reactivity with OH was less than 6.8 x 10(-16) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1), indicating low reactivity in the troposphere. Consequently, the lifetime of PFPMIE should be limited bytransport to the mesosphere, where photolysis by Lyman-alpha radiation at 121.6 nm will be efficient. By analogy to perfluorinated alkanes, the lower limit for the total atmospheric lifetime is 800 years. PFPMIE was shown to have instantaneous radiative forcing of 0.65 W m(-2) ppb(-1), which corresponds to a global warming potential on a 100 year time scale of 9000 relative to CO2 and 1.95 relative to CFC-11. PMID:16646459

Young, Cora J; Hurley, Michael D; Wallington, Timothy J; Mabury, Scott A

2006-04-01

309

Global warming---The role for nuclear power  

SciTech Connect

Nuclear power is currently making an important contribution to our energy requirements. It provides 17% of the world's electricity today --- almost 20% in the US. Reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over the next 30 to 50 years sufficiently to address the issue of global warming can only be accomplished by a combination of much improved energy efficiency, substantial growth in use of nuclear power, and substantial growth in use of renewable energy. This paper discusses new initiatives in the major nuclear technologies (LWR, HTGR, LMR) which are emerging from a fundamental reexamination of nuclear power in response to the challenges and opportunities in the 21st century. To fulfill its role, nuclear power must gain worldwide acceptance as a viable energy option. The use of modern technology and passive'' safety features in next-generation nuclear power plants offers the potential to simplify their design and operation, enhance their safety, and reduce the cost of electricity. With such improvements, we believe nuclear power can regain public confidence and make a significant contribution to our energy future. 24 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

Jones, J.E. Jr.; Fulkerson, W. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA))

1989-01-01

310

Albedo enhancement of marine clouds to counteract global warming: impacts on the hydrological cycle  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent studies have shown that changes in solar radiation affect the hydrological cycle more strongly than equivalent CO2 changes for the same change in global mean surface temperature. Thus, solar radiation management "geoengineering" proposals to completely offset global mean temperature increases by reducing the amount of absorbed sunlight might be expected to slow the global water cycle and reduce runoff over land. However, proposed countering of global warming by increasing the albedo of marine clouds would reduce surface solar radiation only over the oceans. Here, for an idealized scenario, we analyze the response of temperature and the hydrological cycle to increased reflection by clouds over the ocean using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. When cloud droplets are reduced in size over all oceans uniformly to offset the temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, the global-mean precipitation and evaporation decreases by about 1.3% but runoff over land increases by 7.5% primarily due to increases over tropical land. In the model, more reflective marine clouds cool the atmospheric column over ocean. The result is a sinking motion over oceans and upward motion over land. We attribute the increased runoff over land to this increased upward motion over land when marine clouds are made more reflective. Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary albedo, offsetting mean global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents. However, we note that the changes in precipitation, evaporation and P-E are dominated by small but significant areas, and given the highly idealized nature of this study, a more thorough and broader assessment would be required for proposals of altering marine cloud properties on a large scale.

Bala, G.; Caldeira, Ken; Nemani, Rama; Cao, Long; Ban-Weiss, George; Shin, Ho-Jeong

2011-09-01

311

Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often interpolated or extrapolated to give an indication of the likelihood of a certain event within a given period or interval. Under changing climatic conditions, the statistical properties of climate extremes are also changing. It is an important scientific goal to predict how the properties of extreme events change. To achieve this goal, observational and model studies aimed at revealing important features are a necessary prerequisite. Notable progress has been made in understanding mechanisms that influence climate variability and extremes in many parts of the globe including Europe. However, some of the recently observed unprecedented extremes cannot be fully explained from the already identified forcing factors. A better understanding of why these extreme events occur and their sensitivity to certain reinforcing and/or competing factors is useful. Understanding their basic form as well as their temporal variability is also vital and can contribute to global scientific efforts directed at advancing climate prediction capabilities, particularly making skilful forecasts and realistic projections of extremes. In this thesis temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe and Africa, respectively, are investigated. Emphasis is placed on the mechanisms underlying the occurrence of the extremes, their predictability and their likely response to global warming. The focus is on some selected seasons when extremes typically occur. An atmospheric energy budget analysis for the record-breaking European Autumn 2006 event has been carried out with the goal to identify the sources of energy for the extreme event. Net radiational heating is compared to surface turbulent fluxes of energy and dynamic horizontal advection of heat. There is clear evidence that the central North Atlantic Ocean was the major source of energy for the Autumn 2006 extreme event. Within Europe, anomalously high atmospheric water-vapor loading played a significant role through its strong greenhouse effect which resulted in an increase of downwelling infrared flux to the surface. Potential influences and connections between boreal snow cover during the melt season (February--April) and near-surface temperature in the spring season are established. Large amounts of snow act as a precursor to cold spring seasons by altering the coupling between the land and the overlying air through a modification of the surface energy and hydrological processes. In operational numerical models, a snow signal is found to provide some seasonal forecast skill for cold spring seasons in Europe. Changes in the intensity of droughts and floods in Africa in response to global warming are investigated and compared with changes in mean precipitation simulated by an ensemble of climate models selected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4) set. The model simulations are objectively combined using a Bayesian weighting procedure. In southern Africa south of about 15° S, the most robust climate-change signal is a shortening of the main rainfall season. This arises from a delayed onset of seasonal rainfall associated with a reduction in lower-tropospheric moisture advection from the southwestern Indian Ocean. The semi-arid areas closer to the Kalahari desert are projected to become drier, while the wet areas are projected to become wetter. East Africa is projected to get wet in the future climate, much wetter than other regions within the same latitudinal belt. The zonal asymmetry in tropical precipitation increase is associated with a shift towards positive Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM)-like events via an alteration in the structure of the Eastern Hemisphere Walker circulation.

Shongwe, M. E.

2010-01-01

312

Hypogean carabid beetles as indicators of global warming?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change has been shown to impact the geographical and altitudinal distribution of animals and plants, and to especially affect range-restricted polar and mountaintop species. However, little is known about the impact on the relict lineages of cave animals. Ground beetles (carabids) show a wide variety of evolutionary pathways, from soil-surface (epigean) predatory habits to life in caves and in other subterranean (hypogean) compartments. We reconstructed an unprecedented set of species/time accumulation curves of the largest carabid genera in Europe, selected by their degree of ‘underground’ adaptation, from true epigean predators to eyeless highly specialized hypogean beetles. The data show that in recent periods an unexpectedly large number of new cave species were found lying in well established European hotspots; the first peak of new species, especially in the most evolved underground taxa, occurred in the 1920-30s and a second burst after the 70s. Temperature data show large warming rates in both periods, suggesting that the temperature increase in the past century might have induced cave species to expand their habitats into large well-aired cavities and superficial underground compartments, where they can be easily sampled. An alternative hypothesis, based on increased sampling intensity, is less supported by available datasets.

Brandmayr, Pietro; Giorgi, Filippo; Casale, Achille; Colombetta, Giorgio; Mariotti, Laura; Vigna Taglianti, Augusto; Weber, Friedrich; Pizzolotto, Roberto

2013-12-01

313

Global CO 2 recycling—novel materials and prospect for prevention of global warming and abundant energy supply  

Microsoft Academic Search

CO2 emissions which induce global warming, increase with the growth of the economic activity. It is, therefore, impossible to decrease emissions only by energy savings and by improvements of the energy efficiency. Global CO2 recycling can solve this problem and supply abundant renewable energy. Global CO2 recycling consists of three districts: (i) in deserts, all necessary electricities are generated by

K Hashimoto; M Yamasaki; K Fujimura; T Matsui; K Izumiya; M Komori; A. A El-Moneim; E Akiyama; H Habazaki; N Kumagai; A Kawashima; K Asami

1999-01-01

314

Global Warming’s Six Americas: An Audience Segmentation Analysis (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

One of the first rules of effective communication is to “know thy audience.” People have different psychological, cultural and political reasons for acting - or not acting - to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and climate change educators can increase their impact by taking these differences into account. In this presentation we will describe six unique audience segments within the American public that each responds to the issue in its own distinct way, and we will discuss methods of engaging each. The six audiences were identified using a nationally representative survey of American adults conducted in the fall of 2008 (N=2,164). In two waves of online data collection, the public’s climate change beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions, values, policy preferences, conservation, and energy-efficiency behaviors were assessed. The data were subjected to latent class analysis, yielding six groups distinguishable on all the above dimensions. The Alarmed (18%) are fully convinced of the reality and seriousness of climate change and are already taking individual, consumer, and political action to address it. The Concerned (33%) - the largest of the Six Americas - are also convinced that global warming is happening and a serious problem, but have not yet engaged with the issue personally. Three other Americas - the Cautious (19%), the Disengaged (12%) and the Doubtful (11%) - represent different stages of understanding and acceptance of the problem, and none are actively involved. The final America - the Dismissive (7%) - are very sure it is not happening and are actively involved as opponents of a national effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Mitigating climate change will require a diversity of messages, messengers and methods that take into account these differences within the American public. The findings from this research can serve as guideposts for educators on the optimal choices for reaching and influencing target groups with varied informational needs, values and beliefs.

Roser-Renouf, C.; Maibach, E.; Leiserowitz, A.

2009-12-01

315

Top Scientists Conclude Human Activity is Affecting Global Climate  

NSF Publications Database

... these emissions is carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that traps solar radiation and warms the planet ... of human activities, and today greenhouse gases are the largest human influence on global climate ...

316

Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global drylands encompassing hyper-arid, arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid areas cover about 41 percent of the earth's terrestrial surface and are home to more than a third of the world's population. By analyzing observations for 1948-2008 and climate model simulations for 1948-2100, we show that global drylands have expanded in the last sixty years and will continue to expand in the 21st~century. By the end of this century, the world's drylands (under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario) are projected to be 5.8 × 106 km2 (or 10%) larger than in the 1961-1990 climatology. The major expansion of arid regions will occur over southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa, and Australia, while major expansions of semiarid regions will occur over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America. The global dryland expansions will increase the population affected by water scarcity and land degradations.

Feng, S.; Fu, Q.

2013-10-01

317

Simulation of hydrologic changes associated with global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Using the results obtained from a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model with medium computational resolution, we investigated how the hydrology of the continents changes in response to the combined increases of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, which are determined based upon the IS92a scenario. In order to extract the forced response from natural, internal variability, the difference between the mean of an eight-member ensemble of numerical experiments and a control experiment are used for the present analysis. The global mean surface air temperature of the coupled model increases by about 2.3°C above the preindustrial level by the middle of the 21st century. Accompanying the warming, the global mean rates of both precipitation and evaporation increase by 5.2%, yielding the average increase in the rate of runoff by approximately 7.3%. The increase in the rate of runoff simulated by the model is particularly large in high northern latitudes, where the runoff from some rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' may increase by as much as 20%. Runoff from many European rivers increases by more than 20%. Runoff also increases substantially in some tropical rivers such as the Amazon and Ganges. However, the percentage changes in simulated runoff from many other tropical rivers and middle latitude rivers are smaller with both positive and negative signs. In middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, soil moisture tends to decrease in summer, whereas it increases in winter. However, in many semi-arid regions in subtropical and middle latitudes, soil moisture is reduced during most of a year. These semi-arid regions include the southwestern part of North America, the northeastern part of China in the Northern Hemisphere, and the region in the vicinity of the Kalahari Desert and southern part of Australia in the Southern Hemisphere. Since a semi-arid region usually surrounds a desert, the reduction of soil moisture in such a region often results in the expansion of the desert. Soil moisture is also reduced during the dry season in many semi-arid regions. For example, it is reduced in the savannahs of Africa and South America during winter and early spring in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, it is reduced at the Mediterranean coast of Europe in summer.

Wetherald, Richard T.; Manabe, Syukuro

2002-10-01

318

Global warming prolongs the thermal stratification of dimictic lake Mondsee.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The pre-alpine Lake Mondsee is situated at the northern margin of the European Alps (47° 49´N, 13° 24´E) in the Salzkammergut lake district of Upper Austria at a sea level of 481 m. The lake has a surface area of 14,21 km² and a maximum water depth of 68 m (volume is 500 Mio m³ and theoretical water retention time is 1,8 years). Sediment samples confirm oligotrophic conditions as historical reference status of the lake. From 1970 to 1985 the lake suffered from severe eutrophication leading to cyanobacterial blooms (Planctothrix rubescens). Reduction of nutrient load in the course of improved sewage treatment resulted in re-oligotrophication from 1985 to about 2000. Currently, lake Mondsee is assessed mesotrophic and the biological quality elements "phytoplankton" and "macrophytes" classify the lake in the "moderate ecological status". According to the Water Framework Directive, a key initiative throughout the EU, the aim is to improve water quality and reach the "good ecological status". Temperature data of the Lake have been measured since the 30ies of the last century in varying intervals. In the present study (1991 - 2009) water temperature measured at the deepest point of the lake shows an increase in average surface temperature (0 - 5 m) of about 2 °C over the last two decades. The increase is less pronounced in deeper water layers and almost not visible below 15 m depth. Due to global change and rising temperatures stratification is starting earlier in the season and is prolonged from formerly end of November to the middle or even end of December. Thus, between 1999 and 2011 in several years the stratification period was extended for 5 weeks. During stratification oxygen depletion occurs in the depth of lakes and prolonged stratification results in increased areas of oxygen depletion. The oxygen concentration controls the phosphorus release of lake sediments. Therefore prolonged stratification results in increased internal phosphorus load of the lake. Global warming may thus enhance internal eutrophication and lead to problems reaching and sustaining the "good ecological status" of prealpine lakes.

Blatterer, Hubert; Luger, Martin

2013-04-01

319

Simultaneous Antegrade And Retrograde Delivery Of Continuous Warm Blood Cardioplegia After Global Ischemia  

Microsoft Academic Search

Objective: Simultaneous delivery of antegrade and retrograde cardioplegia may provide a more homogeneous distribution of cardioplegic solution. It may, however, increase myocardial edema and postcardioplegic myocardial injury. The purpose of this study was to compare simultaneous antegrade-retrograde cardioplegia with antegrade cardioplegia. Methods: After 30 minutes of warm, “unprotected,” global ischemia, pigs were given warm, continuous blood cardioplegia for 45 minutes

Anders B. Ericsson; Shigeto Takeshima; Jarle Vaage

1998-01-01

320

Observed climate change constrains the likelihood of extreme future global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

If cooling due to present-day levels of atmospheric aerosol is suppressing global temperatures, future reductions in aerosols emissions would allow the full greenhouse gas induced warming to be realised. The many uncertainties in aerosol physics and chemistry mean that a large range of present-day aerosol cooling is possible which could imply a large climate sensitivity, extremely large future warming and

Peter A. Stott; Chris Huntingford; Chris D. Jones; Jamie A. Kettleborough

2008-01-01

321

Energy and global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies. Executive summary  

Microsoft Academic Search

The primary objective of this study is to develop representative indications of the relative energy use, associated COâ emissions, and total equivalent warming impact (TEWI) of viable option to replace CFCs in their major energy-related application areas. It was motivated, in part, by a concern that most attention to data has focused on the DIRECT global warming effect of CFCs

S. K. Fischer; P. J. Hughes; P. D. Fairchild; C. L. Kusik; J. T. Dieckmann; E. M. McMahon; N. Hobday

1991-01-01

322

Robust increases in midlatitude static stability in simulations of global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

We examine changes in the static stability of the midlatitude troposphere in simulations of global warming using 21 coupled climate models in the AR4 archive. The dry static stability within the midlatitudes exhibits a robust increase in the simulations, with upper tropospheric warming outpacing the lower troposphere by approximately 2 K. The increase in stability is especially evident in the

Dargan M. W. Frierson

2006-01-01

323

Midlatitude Static Stability and Energy Transports in Simulations of Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Due to the exponential increase in saturation vapor pressure with temperature and the tendency for relative humidity to stay the same under climate changes, we expect with a high degree of certainty that there will be a 7% increase in moisture content of the atmosphere per degree of temperature increase. This means in global warming scenarios with 3 K warming,

D. M. Frierson

2008-01-01

324

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C) observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the

B. Nyenzi; P. F. Lefale

2006-01-01

325

How the public engages with global warming: A social representations approach.  

PubMed

The present study utilises social representations theory to explore common sense conceptualisations of global warming risk using an in-depth, qualitative methodology. Fifty-six members of a British, London-based 2008 public were initially asked to draw or write four spontaneous "first thoughts or feelings" about global warming. These were then explored via an open-ended, exploratory interview. The analysis revealed that first thoughts, either drawn or written, often mirrored the images used by the British press to depict global warming visually. Thus in terms of media framings, it was their visual rather than their textual content that was spontaneously available for their audiences. Furthermore, an in-depth exploration of interview data revealed that global warming was structured around three themata: self/other, natural/unnatural and certainty/uncertainty, reflecting the complex and often contradictory nature of common sense thinking in relation to risk issues. PMID:23832882

Smith, Nicholas; Joffe, Helene

2013-01-01

326

A new type of debate for global warming and scientific literacy  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Expanding on some ideas introduced in the paper by Albe and Gombert (2012) " Students' communication, argumentation and knowledge in a citizen' conference on global warming", I explore two issues relevant to their work: global warming (GW) as a socioscientific controversy and scientific literacy in regards to climate change science. For the first issue, the definition of GW socioscientific controversy provided in the article raises controversies in both scientific communities and society or social groups concerned by the issue. I review this from two perspectives that can be considered at the extreme ends of a spectrum of perspectives. I then address the role of debates in education about global warming and climate change and suggest a new type of classroom debates to replace those addressing the existence and cause of global warming.

Gautier, Catherine

2012-09-01

327

Global warming enhances sulphide stress in a key seagrass species (NW Mediterranean).  

PubMed

The build-up of sulphide concentrations in sediments, resulting from high inputs of organic matter and the mineralization through sulphate reduction, can be lethal to the benthos. Sulphate reduction is temperature dependent, thus global warming may contribute to even higher sulphide concentrations and benthos mortality. The seagrass Posidonia oceanica is very sensitive to sulphide stress. Hence, if concentrations build up with global warming, this key Mediterranean species could be seriously endangered. An 8-year monitoring of daily seawater temperature, the sulphur isotopic signatures of water (?(34)S(water)), sediment (?(34)SCRS ) and P. oceanica leaf tissue (?(34)S(leaves)), along with total sulphur in leaves (TS(leaves)) and annual net population growth along the coast of the Balearic archipelago (Western Mediterranean) allowed us to determine if warming triggers P. oceanica sulphide stress and constrains seagrass survival. From the isotopic S signatures, we estimated sulphide intrusion into the leaves (F(sulphide)) and sulphur incorporation into the leaves from sedimentary sulphides (SS(leaves)). We observed lower ?(34)S(leaves), higher F(sulphide) and SS(leaves) coinciding with a 6-year period when two heat waves were recorded. Warming triggered sulphide stress as evidenced by the negative temperature dependence of ?(34)S(leaves) and the positive one of F(sulphide), TS(leaves) and SS(leaves). Lower P. oceanica net population growth rates were directly related to higher contents of TS(leaves). At equivalent annual maximum sea surface water temperature (SST(max)), deep meadows were less affected by sulphide intrusion than shallow ones. Thus, water depth acts as a protecting mechanism against sulphide intrusion. However, water depth would be insufficient to buffer seagrass sulphide stress triggered by Mediterranean seawater summer temperatures projected for the end of the 21st century even under scenarios of moderate greenhouse gas emissions, A1B. Mediterranean warming, therefore, is expected to enhance P. oceanica sulphide stress, and thus compromise the survival of this key habitat along its entire depth distribution range. PMID:24123496

García, Rosa; Holmer, Marianne; Duarte, Carlos M; Marbà, Núria

2013-12-01

328

Methane emissions from a freshwater marsh in response to experimentally simulated global warming and nitrogen enrichment  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We determined methane (CH4) emissions in a field enclosure experiment in a littoral freshwater marsh under the influence of experimentally simulated warming and enhanced nitrogen deposition. Methane emissions by ebullition from the marsh composed of Phragmites australis were measured with funnel traps deployed in a series of enclosures for two 3 week periods. Diffusive fluxes were estimated on the basis of measured CH4 concentrations and application of Fick's law. Neither diffusive nor ebullitive fluxes of methane were significantly affected by warming or nitrate enrichment, possibly because variability both within and among replicate experimental enclosures was high. Average emission rates resulted primarily from ebullition (0.2-30.3 mmol CH4 m-2 d-1), which were 4 orders of magnitude higher than estimated diffusive fluxes and were of similar importance as the coarsely estimated advective methane transport through plants. Significant correlations between dissolved oxygen and dissolved methane and ebullition flux suggest that methane release from the sediment might feed back positively on methane production by reducing dissolved oxygen in the water column and oxygen flux into the sediment. Nitrate may have a similar effect. Extrapolation of our limited data indicates that total methane fluxes from vegetated littoral zones of temperate lakes may contribute 0.5%-7% of the global natural CH4 emissions. These results emphasize the importance of freshwater marshes as sources of methane emissions to the atmosphere, even when they occupy only relatively small littoral areas. More detailed investigations are clearly needed to assess whether global warming and nitrogen deposition can have climate feedbacks by altering methane fluxes from these wetlands.

Flury, Sabine; McGinnis, Daniel F.; Gessner, Mark O.

2010-03-01

329

Where are Germany’s gains from Kyoto? Estimating the effects of global warming on agriculture  

Microsoft Academic Search

Motivated by the high abatement costs of the Kyoto Protocol for Germany, this paper is estimating the economic impact of global\\u000a warming on agriculture in that country. The hedonic approach is used as theoretical background. Stating that land prices are\\u000a – among others – determined by climatic factors, this approach can consequently be used to value global warming. To avoid

Günter Lang

2007-01-01

330

Scenario analysis of global warming using the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is a large-scale model for scenario analyses of green-house gas (GHG) emissions and the impacts of global warming in the Asian Pacific region. The AIM comprises two main models — the AIM\\/emission model for predicting GHG emissions and the AIM\\/impact model for estimating the impacts of global warming — which are linked by the

Mikiko Kainuma; Tsuneyuki Morita

1995-01-01

331

Uncertainties in the simulation of permafrost response to global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Permafrost is generally believed to be highly sensitive to global warming, and some studies have projected dramatic reductions in permafrost extent by the end of this century. However, few studies have addressed the uncertainties in simulating the response of permafrost to climate change. Conventional permafrost models are based on well-established relations of permafrost occurrence with climatic variables, but often assume that the ground thermal regime is in equilibrium with the atmospheric climate. The land surface schemes of many climate models, on the other hand, use a process-based approach to simulate the dynamics of frozen ground, but ignore some of the key processes that will determine the pace of the permafrost response, in particular the thermodynamics of the deeper soil. Here we attempt to identify and quantify the different sources of uncertainty in the simulation of the permafrost response to climate change. These include model structure, parameter uncertainty, and uncertainty in the climate signal over permafrost regions. To this end, we used two very different modelling approaches: a stochastic equilibrium model that is able to account for the parameter uncertainty in traditional large-scale models of climate-permafrost interactions; and an updated version of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) land surface scheme, that now includes a representation of organic soils and the deeper soil layers. Both models have been driven by probabilistic climate scenarios from the Hadley Centre (HadCM3) perturbed physics ensemble, that allows for an estimation of the probability density function of key climatic parameters over the region. By using this approach we can compare the level of parameter uncertainty in the stochastic permafrost model to uncertainty in the climate model simulations, and we can determine the differences that arise from the divergent modelling approaches. First results indicate that the spread in the climate scenario ensemble is large, particularly over Eastern Siberia, which may result in a wide range in the equilibrium response of the permafrost in Northern Eurasia. This research has been funded by the UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office.

Dankers, Rutger; Anisimov, Oleg; Falloon, Pete; Gornall, Jemma; Reneva, Svetlana; Wiltshire, Andy

2010-05-01

332

Natural gas and efficient technologies: A response to global warming  

SciTech Connect

It has become recognized by the international scientific community that global warming due to fossil fuel energy buildup of greenhouse CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is a real environmental problem. Worldwide agreement has also been reached to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions. A leading approach to reducing CO{sub 2} emissions is to utilize hydrogen-rich fuels and improve the efficiency of conversion in the power generation, transportation and heating sectors of the economy. In this report, natural gas, having the highest hydrogen content of all the fossil fuels, can have an important impact in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. This paper explores natural gas and improved conversion systems for supplying energy to all three sectors of the economy. The improved technologies include combined cycle for power generation, the Carnol system for methanol production for the transportation sector and fuel cells for both power generation and transportation use. The reduction in CO{sub 2} from current emissions range from 13% when natural gas is substituted for gasoline in the transportation sector to 45% when substituting methanol produced by the Carnol systems (hydrogen from thermal decomposition of methane reacting with CO{sub 2} from coal-fired power plants) used in the transportation sector. CO{sub 2} reductions exceeding 60% can be achieved by using natural gas in combined cycle for power generation and Carnol methanol in the transportation sector and would, thus, stabilize CO{sub 2} concentration in the atmosphere predicted to avoid undue climate change effects. It is estimated that the total fossil fuel energy bill in the US can be reduced by over 40% from the current fuel bill. This also allows a doubling in the unit cost for natural gas if the current energy bill is maintained. Estimates of the total net incremental replacement capital cost for completing the new improved equipment is not more than that which will have to be spent to replace the existing equipment conducting business as usual.

Steinberg, M.

1998-02-01

333

Long-range Memory in Earth's Global Temperature and its Implications for Future Global Warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Earth's climate is a driven complex system which responds to a variable radiative forcing on a vast range of time scales. The contribution explores the hypothesis that the temporal global temperature response can be modeled as a long-range memory (LRM) stochastic process characterized by a Hurst exponent 0.5global (H=1.0) records and that LRM is highest in records strongly influenced by the ocean. The increasing trend through the last century cannot be explained as an unforced LRM fluctuation, but the observed 60-yr oscillation can. Analysis of a northern-hemisphere reconstruction for the last two millennia confirms LRM scaling up to at least 250 yr. If this record reconstructs the milennium-scale temperatures correctly there is a significant temperature difference between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age which cannot be explained as an inherent LRM fluctuation. We systematically investigate biases and uncertainties of a number of analysis methods, and conclude that for these record lengths it has no meaning to give Hurst exponents with more than one decimal. We also address the serious implications of such memory effects on future global warming due to the stronger disturbance of the Earth's energy balance under sustained forcing.

Rypdal, K.; Oestvand, L.

2012-12-01

334

Vegetation's affect on summer warming may not last  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The effect of vegetation on surface temperatures was analyzed using satellite measurements of surface greenness in the summer and snow extent in the winter. Results confirmed previous research that found that enhanced vegetation leads to cooler surface temperatures but they also indicate that this mechanism for slowing global climate change may not be effective for much longer because a 3-5 degree Celsius temperature increase my harm vegetation growth.

Al., Kaufmann E.; Agu

335

Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz and Thompson, 1990) serves as the theoretical framework for this qualitative analysis in which I ask the question how do U.S. secondary school curricula and teachers deal with the disparity between the overwhelming scientific consensus and the lay-public's skepticism regarding global warming? I analyzed nine widely used social studies and science textbooks, eight sets of supplemental materials about global warming produced by a range of not-for-profit and governmental organizations, and interviewed fourteen high school teachers who had experience teaching formal lessons about global warming in their content area. Findings suggest: 1) the range of global warming content within social studies and science textbooks and supplemental curricula reflects the spectrum of conceptualizations found among members of the U.S. public; 2) global warming curricula communicate only a narrow range of strategies for dealing with global warming and its associated threats; and 3) social studies and science teachers report taking a range of stances about global warming in their classroom, but sometimes the stance they put forth to their students does not align with their personal beliefs about global warming. The findings pose a troubling conundrum. Some of the global warming curricula treat the cause of global warming--a question that is not scientifically controversial--as a question with multiple and competing "right" answers. At the same time, much of curricula position how we should address global warming--a question that is legitimately controversial--as a question with one correct answer despite there being many reasonable responses. Finally, I present the implications this conundrum has for teaching about global warming in a politically polarized atmosphere.

Meehan, Casey R.

336

Coastal-zone biogeochemical dynamics under global warming  

SciTech Connect

The coastal zone, consisting of the continental shelves to a depth of 200 meters, including bays, lagoons, estuaries, and near-shore banks, is an environment that is strongly affected by its biogeochemical and physical interactions with reservoirs in the adjacent domains of land, atmosphere, open ocean, and marine sediments. Because the coastal zone is smaller in volume and area coverage relative to the open ocean, it traditionally has been studied as an integral part of the global oceans. In this paper, the authors show by numerical modeling that it is important to consider the coastal zone as an entity separate from the open ocean in any assessment of future Earth-system response under human perturbation. Model analyses for the early part of the 21st century suggest that the coastal zone plays a significant modifying role in the biogeochemical dynamics of the carbon cycle and the nutrient cycles coupled to it. This role is manifested in changes in primary production, storage, and/or export of organic matter, its remineralization, and calcium carbonate precipitation--all of which determine the state of the coastal zone with respect to exchange of CO{sub 2} with the atmosphere. Under a scenario of future reduced or complete cessation of the thermohaline circulation (THC) of the global oceans, coastal waters become an important sink for atmospheric CO{sub 2}, as opposed to the conditions in the past and present, when coastal waters are believed to be a source of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere. Profound changes in coastal-zone primary productivity underscore the important role of phosphorus as a limiting nutrient. In addition, calculations indicate that the saturation state of coastal waters with respect to carbonate minerals will decline by {approximately}15% by the year 2030. Any future slowdown in the THC of the oceans will increase slightly the rate of decline in saturation state.

Mackenzie, F.T.; Ver, L.M.; Lerman, A.

2000-03-01

337

Surface thermohaline forcing conditions and the response of the present-day global ocean climate to global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

I investigate the response of the present-day thermohaline circulation to a greenhouse gas induced global warming under different surface thermohaline conditions in a global Bryan\\/Cox [Bryan, 1969; Cox, 1989] ocean general circulation model with realistic bathymetry and geometry. Initially the model is spun up with surface temperature and salinity relaxed to Levitus [1982] climatologies. The forcing condition for salinity is

Wenju Cai

1996-01-01

338

The interplay between knowledge, perceived efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change: a one-year longitudinal study.  

PubMed

If the long-term goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C is to be achieved, rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required. These reductions will demand political leadership and widespread public support for action on global warming and climate change. Public knowledge, level of concern, and perceived personal efficacy, in positively affecting these issues are key variables in understanding public support for mitigation action. Previous research has documented some contradictory associations between knowledge, personal efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about temporal stability and direction of influence. This study examines the relationships between these three variables over a one-year period and three waves with national data from New Zealand. Results showed a positive association between the variables, and the pattern of findings was stable and consistent across the three data points. More importantly, results indicate that concern mediates the influence of knowledge on personal efficacy. Knowing more about global warming and climate change increases overall concern about the risks of these issues, and this increased concern leads to greater perceived efficacy and responsibility to help solving them. Implications for risk communication are discussed. PMID:22489642

Milfont, Taciano L

2012-06-01

339

The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.  

PubMed

The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity. PMID:23215975

Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

2012-12-01

340

Global warming-enhanced stratification and mass mortality events in the Mediterranean  

PubMed Central

Summer conditions in the Mediterranean Sea are characterized by high temperatures and low food availability. This leads to “summer dormancy” in many benthic suspension feeders due to energetic constraints. Analysis of the most recent 33-year temperature time series demonstrated enhanced stratification due to global warming, which produced a ?40% lengthening of summer conditions. Many biological processes are expected to be affected by this trend, culminating in such events as mass mortality of invertebrates. Climatic anomalies concomitant with the occurrence of these events represent prolonged exposure to warmer summer conditions coupled with reduced food resources. Simulation of the effects of these conditions on a model organism demonstrated a biomass loss of >35%. Losses of this magnitude result in mortality similar to that noted in field observations during mass mortality events. These results indicate that temperature anomalies are the underlying cause of the events, with energetic constraints serving as the main triggering mechanism.

Coma, Rafel; Ribes, Marta; Serrano, Eduard; Jimenez, Eroteida; Salat, Jordi; Pascual, Josep

2009-01-01

341

Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central Africa, and Amazon Basin) do not show any particular response to this transition.

Chronis, Themis G.; Cecil, Dan; Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis

2007-01-01

342

Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

2012-12-01

343

Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change  

PubMed Central

Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An analysis of meat, egg, and milk production encompasses not only the direct rearing and slaughtering of animals, but also grain and fertilizer production for animal feed, waste storage and disposal, water use, and energy expenditures on farms and in transporting feed and finished animal products, among other key impacts of the production process as a whole. Conclusions Immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns are both critical and timely if GHGs from the farm animal sector are to be mitigated.

Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

2008-01-01

344

Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. corn belt?  

PubMed

Agricultural management practices that enhance C sequestration, reduce greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide [N?O], methane [CH?], and carbon dioxide [CO?]), and promote productivity are needed to mitigate global warming without sacrificing food production. The objectives of the study were to compare productivity, greenhouse gas emission, and change in soil C over time and to assess whether global warming potential and global warming potential per unit biomass produced were reduced through combined mitigation strategies when implemented in the northern U.S. Corn Belt. The systems compared were (i) business as usual (BAU); (ii) maximum C sequestration (MAXC); and (iii) optimum greenhouse gas benefit (OGGB). Biomass production, greenhouse gas flux change in total and organic soil C, and global warming potential were compared among the three systems. Soil organic C accumulated only in the surface 0 to 5 cm. Three-year average emission of N?O and CH was similar among all management systems. When integrated from planting to planting, N?O emission was similar for MAXC and OGGB systems, although only MAXC was fertilized. Overall, the three systems had similar global warming potential based on 4-yr changes in soil organic C, but average rotation biomass was less in the OGGB systems. Global warming potential per dry crop yield was the least for the MAXC system and the most for OGGB system. This suggests management practices designed to reduce global warming potential can be achieved without a loss of productivity. For example, MAXC systems over time may provide sufficient soil C sequestration to offset associated greenhouse gas emission. PMID:21869517

Johnson, Jane M-F; Archer, David W; Weyers, Sharon L; Barbour, Nancy W

2011-01-01

345

Biodiversity Loss Affects Global Disease Ecology  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Changes in the type and prevalence of human diseases have occurred during shifts in human social organization, for example, from hunting and gathering to agriculture and with urbanization during the Industrial Revolution. The recent emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases appears to be driven by globalization and ecological disruption. We propose that habitat destruction and biodiversity loss associated with biotic homogenization can increase the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases affecting humans. The clearest connection between biotic homogenization and infectious disease is the spread of nonindigenous vectors and pathogens. The loss of predators and hosts that dilute pathogen transmission can also increase the incidence of vectorborne illnesses. Other mechanisms include enhanced abiotic conditions for pathogens and vectors and higher host-pathogen encounter rates. Improved understanding of these causal mechanisms can inform decisionmaking on biodiversity conservation as an effective way to protect human health.

Montira Pongsiri (US Environmental Protection Agency;Office of the Science Adviser); Joe Roman (University of Vermont;Gund Institute for Ecological Economics)

2009-12-01

346

Observational Constraints on Past Attributable Warming and Predictions of Future Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good

Peter A. Stott; John F. B. Mitchell; Myles R. Allen; Thomas L. Delworth; Jonathan M. Gregory; Gerald A. Meehl; Benjamin D. Santer

2006-01-01

347

The freezer defrosting: global warming and litter decomposition rates in cold biomes  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary 1 Decomposition of plant litter, a key component of the global carbon budget, is hierarchically controlled by the triad: climate > litter quality > soil organisms. Given the sensitivity of decomposition to temperature, especially in cold biomes, it has been hypothesized that global warming will lead to increased litter decomposition rates, both through direct temperature effects and through indirect

R. AERTS

2006-01-01

348

The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in material quantities, globally, is a critical element in limiting the impacts of global warming. GHG emissions associated with energy extraction and use are a major component of any strategy addressing climate change mitigation. Non-emitting options for electrical power and liquid transportation fuels are increasingly considered key components of an energy system with lower

Douglas J. Arent; Alison Wise; Rachel Gelman

2011-01-01

349

Robust increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity under global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a widely accepted measure of Earth's susceptibility to radiative forcing. While ECS is often assumed to be constant to a first order of approximation, recent studies suggested that ECS might depend on the climate state. Here it is shown that the latest generation of climate models consistently exhibits an increasing ECS in warmer climates due to a strengthening of the water-vapor feedback with increasing surface temperatures. The increasing ECS is replicated by a one-dimensional radiative-convective equilibrium model, which further shows that the enhanced water-vapor feedback follows from the rising of the tropopause in a warming climate. This mechanism is potentially important for understanding both warm climates of Earth's past and projections of future high-emission scenarios.

Meraner, Katharina; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Voigt, Aiko

2013-11-01

350

Physical aspects of the greenhouse effect and global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

release in units of the average incident solar radiation, 342 W m 22, and DTE is the average temperature rise at the earth's surface. Present values of these quantities, excluding geothermal sources, are «50.6931024 and DTE57.9 mK. The model assigns a small number of optical parameters to the atmosphere and surface and qualifies the simple warming prediction: It is rigorous

Robert S. Knoxa

351

Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to global warming. Part II: sensitivity of permafrost carbon stock to global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

In the companion paper (Part I), we presented a model of permafrost carbon cycle to study the sensitivity of frozen carbon stocks to future climate warming. The mobilization of deep carbon stock of the frozen Pleistocene soil in the case of rapid stepwise increase of atmospheric temperature was considered. In this work, we adapted the model to be used also

D. V. Khvorostyanov; P. Ciais; G. Krinner; S. A. Zimov; Ch. Corradi; G. Guggenberger

2008-01-01

352

Global warming leads the carbon isotope excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The prominent negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (55.5 Ma) is generally accepted to reflect a transient, massive input of isotopically light carbon into the ocean- atmosphere system. Many authors have assumed that this carbon led to pronounced global greenhouse warming. Here we show, from an expanded record in New Jersey, that both the onset of the global abundance of the subtropical dinoflagellate Apectodinium and surface-ocean warming as recorded by TEX86 preceded the CIE by several thousands of years. The offset between Apectodinium and the CIE was confirmed in other sites from New Jersey, the North Sea and New Zealand. The approximately 3 kyrs time lag between the onset of warming and the CIE is consistent with the expected lag between bottom water warming and submarine methane hydrate dissociation, suggesting that the latter mechanism indeed caused the CIE.

Sluijs, A.; Brinkhuis, H.; Schouten, S.; Zachos, J. C.; Bohaty, S.; John, C.; Deltrap, R.; Reichart, G.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.; Crouch, E.

2006-12-01

353

Is aerosol scattering in the stratosphere a safety technology preventing global warming?  

Microsoft Academic Search

In accordance with numerous investigations, global climate warming due to the increased greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere\\u000a can significantly influence the environment already in the near decades. In order to mitigate or prevent possible adverse\\u000a consequences of this warming the technologies on reducing greenhouse gas emissions as well as a deliberate interference with\\u000a climate, including its control, are under

V. P. Meleshko; V. M. Kattsov; I. L. Karol

2010-01-01

354

Accounting for carbon cycle feedbacks in a comparison of the global warming effects of greenhouse gases  

Microsoft Academic Search

Greenhouse gases other than CO2 make a significant contribution to human-induced climate change, and multi-gas mitigation strategies are cheaper to implement than those which limit CO2 emissions alone. Most practical multi-gas mitigation strategies require metrics to relate the climate warming effects of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Global warming potential (GWP), defined as the ratio of time-integrated radiative forcing of

Nathan P. Gillett; H. Damon Matthews

2010-01-01

355

Butterflies Shed Light on How Some Species Respond to Global Warming  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Dr. Hellmann and her team have conducted a series of studies in which manipulating the temperature of the butterfly larvaeÃÂs environment revealed how the two species might respond to global warming. She will discuss the teamÃÂs work at the 2010 American Physiological SocietyÃÂs (www.the-APS.org) Intersociety Meeting in Westminster, Colo., August 4-7. The program is entitled, Global Change and Global Science: Comparative Physiology in a Changing World.

APS Communications Office (American Physiological Society Communications Office)

2010-08-05

356

The stability of the thermohaline circulation in global warming experiments  

SciTech Connect

A simplified climate model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is used to perform extensive sensitivity studies concerning possible future climate change induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Supplemented with an active atmospheric hydrological cycle, experiments with different rates of CO{sub 2} increase and different climate sensitivities are performed. The model exhibits a threshold value of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration beyond which the North Atlantic Deep Water formation stops and never recovers. For a climate sensitivity that leads to an equilibrium warming of 3.6 C for a doubling of CO{sub 2} and a rate of CO{sub 2} increase of 1% yr{sup {minus}1}, the threshold lies between 650 and 700 ppmv. Moreover, it is shown that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the rate of increase of greenhouse gases. For a slower increase of atmospheric pCO{sub 2} the final amount that can be reached without a shutdown of the circulation is considerably higher. This rate-sensitive response is due to the uptake of heat and excess freshwater from the uppermost layers to the deep ocean. The increased equator-to-pole freshwater transport in a warmer atmosphere is mainly responsible for the cessation of deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Another consequence of the enhanced latent heat transport is a stronger warming at high latitudes. A model version with fixed water vapor transport exhibits uniform warming at all latitudes. The inclusion of a simple parameterization of the ice-albedo feedback increases the model sensitivity and further decreases the pole-to-equator temperature difference in a greenhouse climate. The possible range of CO{sub 2} threshold concentrations and its dependency on the rate of CO{sub 2} increase, on the climate sensitivity, and on other model parameters are discussed.

Schmittner, A.; Stocker, T.F. [Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Physics Inst.] [Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Physics Inst.

1999-04-01

357

On the subarctic North Atlantic cooling due to global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Various ocean reanalysis data reveal that the subarctic Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) has been cooling during the twentieth century. A similar cooling pattern is found in the doubling CO2 experiment obtained from the CMIP3 (coupled model intercomparison project third phase) compared to the pre-industrial experiment. Here, in order to investigate the main driver of this cooling, we perform the heat budget analysis on the subarctic Atlantic upper ocean temperature. The net surface heat flux associated with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases heats the subarctic ocean surface. In the most of models, the longwave radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux exert a warming effect, and the shortwave radiation exerts a cooling effect. On the other hand, the thermal advection by the meridional current reduces the subarctic upper ocean temperature in all models. This cold advection is attributed to the weakening of the meridional overturning circulation, which is related to the reduction in the ocean surface density. In particular, greater warming of the surface air than of the sea surface results in the reduction of surface evaporation and thereby enhanced freshening of the ocean surface water, while precipitation change was smaller than evaporation change. The thermal advections by both the wind-driven Ekman current and the density-driven geostrophic current contribute to cooling in most of the models, where the heat transport by the geostrophic current tends to be larger than that by the Ekman current.

Kim, Hyerim; An, Soon-Il

2013-10-01

358

Clouds and climate: Unraveling a key piece of global warming  

SciTech Connect

Federal policy decisions relating to mitigation of greenhouse gas and other emissions have the potential to exert an enormous impact on industries in which chemical engineers play a prominent role. Many in these industries keep close watch on the development of scientific understanding associated with predictions of global climate change. The authors review one of the most critical, and most uncertain, pieces of the climate puzzle, the role of aerosols and clouds in the global energy balance.

Seinfeld, J.H.

2000-02-01

359

Global warming reduces plant reproductive output for temperate multi-inflorescence species on the Tibetan plateau.  

PubMed

• Temperature is projected to increase more during the winter than during the summer in cold regions. The effects of winter warming on reproductive effort have not been examined for temperate plant species. • Here, we report the results of experimentally induced seasonal winter warming (0.4 and 2.4°C increases in growing and nongrowing seasons, respectively, using warmed and ambient open-top chambers in a Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow) for nine indeterminate-growing species producing multiple (single-flowered or multi-flowered) inflorescences and three determinate-growing species producing single inflorescences after a 3-yr period of warming. • Warming reduced significantly flower number and seed production per plant for all nine multi-inflorescence species, but not for the three single-inflorescence species. Warming had an insignificant effect on the fruit to flower number ratio, seed size and seed number per fruit among species. The reduction in seed production was largely attributable to the decline in flower number per plant. The flowering onset time was unaffected for nine of the 12 species. Therefore, the decline in flower production and seed production in response to winter warming probably reflects a physiological response (e.g. metabolic changes associated with flower production). • Collectively, the data indicate that global warming may reduce flower and seed production for temperate herbaceous species and will probably have a differential effect on single- vs multi-inflorescence species. PMID:22591333

Liu, Yinzhan; Mu, Junpeng; Niklas, Karl J; Li, Guoyong; Sun, Shucun

2012-07-01

360

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.  

PubMed

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase. PMID:23995690

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

361

Current hiatus of global-warming tied to natural variability of the equatorial Pacific  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Despite the continued increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in this century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus of global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method to unravel mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing the observed history of sea surface temperature over the deep tropical Pacific in a climate model, in addition to radiative forcing. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (a period including the current hiatus and an accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern and prolonged drought in southern North America. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La Niña-like decadal cooling. While similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Xie, S.; Kosaka, Y.

2013-12-01

362

Nonlinear precipitation response to El Niño and global warming in the Indo-Pacific  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Precipitation changes over the Indo-Pacific during El Niño events are studied using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Linear increases in the amplitude of the El Niño SST anomaly pattern trigger nonlinear changes in precipitation amounts, resulting in shifts in the location and orientation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). In particular, the maximum precipitation anomaly along the ITCZ and SPCZ shifts eastwards, the ITCZ shifts south towards the equator, and the SPCZ becomes more zonal. Precipitation in the equatorial Pacific also increases nonlinearly. The effect of increasing CO2 levels and warming SSTs is also investigated. Global warming generally enhances the tropical Pacific precipitation response to El Niño. The precipitation response to El Niño is found to be dominated by changes in the atmospheric mean circulation dynamics, whereas the response to global warming is a balance between dynamic and thermodynamic changes. While the dependence of projected climate change impacts on seasonal variability is well-established, this study reveals that the impact of global warming on Pacific precipitation also depends strongly on the magnitude of the El Niño event. The magnitude and structure of the precipitation changes are also sensitive to the spatial structure of the global warming SST pattern.

Chung, Christine T. Y.; Power, Scott B.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Rashid, Harun A.; Roff, Gregory L.

2014-04-01

363

Precipitation response to La Niña and global warming in the Indo-Pacific  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent studies have highlighted the nonlinear rainfall response to El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) events in the Indo-Pacific region and how this response might change over coming decades. Here we investigate the response to La Niña SST anomalies with and without global warming by performing idealised SST-forced experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. The La Niña SST anomaly is multiplied by a factor 1 ? ? ? 4 and added to climatological SSTs. Similar experiments using El Niño SST anomalies were previously performed, in which large nonlinearities in the precipitation response were evident. We find that: (i) Under current climatic conditions, as ? increases, the precipitation responds in three ways: the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) dries and moves poleward, the maximum precipitation along the equator moves west, and the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) narrows, intensifies, and elongates. For weak (? = 1 ) La Niña events, the precipitation anomalies approximately mirror those from the El Niño events along the ITCZ and SPCZ, though there are some marked differences in the central-eastern Pacific. For stronger La Niña events (? > 1 ), precipitation responds nonlinearly to SST anomalies, though the nonlinearities are smaller and differ spatially from the nonlinearities in the El Niño runs. (ii) The addition of a global warming SST pattern increases rainfall in the western Pacific and SPCZ, enhances the narrowing of the SPCZ, and increases the nonlinear response in the western Pacific. However, large La Niña events reduce the impact of global warming along the central-eastern equatorial Pacific as the global warming and La Niña SST anomalies have opposite signs in that region. (iii) The response to La Niña SST anomalies is driven primarily by changes in the atmospheric circulation, whereas the response to the global warming SST pattern is mainly driven by increases in atmospheric moisture. (iv) Large changes in La Niña-driven rainfall anomalies can occur in response to global warming, even if the La Nina SST anomalies relative to the warmer background state are completely unchanged.

Chung, Christine T. Y.; Power, Scott B.

2014-03-01

364

Global warming effects: future feasibility of current cooling equipment for animal houses  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Interest in global warming effects on the agricultural systems is currently high, especially in areas which are likely to be more affected by this temperature rising, i.e. the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2008). According to this report, the model projections of surface warming predict a temperature increase between 0.5°C to 1.5°C in the European area by the period 2020-2029. The aim of the present work was to assess the future consequences of the global warming effect on the feasibility of the cooling equipment in animal houses. Several equipment combinations were compared by means of modelling the inside climate in fattening pig houses, including forced ventilation and cooling pad. The modelling was carried out for six different European locations: Spain, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, for the today conditions; secondly, the global warming effect in the inside climate was considered in a second set of simulations, and a mean temperature rising of 2°C was taken into account. Climate data. The six European locations were: Madrid (Spain); Aliartos (Greece); Bedford (The United Kingdom); Schipol (The Netherlands); Milan (Italy); and Stuttgart (Germany). From every location, the available climate data were monthly mean temperature (To; °C); monthly mean relative humidity (HRo, %) and monthly mean solar irradiation on horizontal surface (So; W m-2). From these monthly values, hourly means were calculated resulting in 24 data for a typical day, each month. Climate model. In this study, cooling strategies resulted from the combination of natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation and cooling pads. The climate model was developed taking into account the following energy fluxes: solar radiation, ventilation (Seginer, 2002), animal heat losses (Blanes and Pedersen, 2005), and loss of energy due to the cooling pads (Seginer, 2002). Results for the present work, show a comparative scene of the inside climate by using different cooling equipment combinations, from natural ventilation to cooling pads. Simulations which include the effects of climate change show the evolution in cooling technologies which will be necessary in this kind of animal houses, in six European locations, if the global temperature rising continues with the current rate. The necessary changes in cooling technologies of animal houses, will be important in Europe when the outside air temperature rising is greater than or equal to two Celsius degrees. Intergovernmental Panel on the Climate Change. 2008. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4syr.pdf I. Seginer. 2002. The Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration Equation as an Element in Greenhouse Ventilation Design. Biosystems Eng. 82(4): 423-439. doi:10.1006/bioe2002.0086 V. Blanes, S. Pedersen. 2005. Ventilation Flow in Pig Houses measured and calculated by Carbon Dioxide, Moisture and Heat Balance Equations. Biosystems Eng. 92(4): 483-493. doi:10.1006/j.biosystemseng.2005.09.002

Valiño, V.; Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; de La Plaza, S.

2009-04-01

365

Smile Intensity and Warm Touch as Thin Slices of Child and Family Affective Style  

Microsoft Academic Search

The authors investigate the claim that thin slices of expressive behavior serve as reliable indicators of affective style in children and their families. Using photographs, the authors assessed smile intensity and tactile contact in kindergartners and their families. Consistent with claims that smiling and touch communicate positive emotion, measures of children’s smile intensity and warm family touch were correlated across

Christopher Oveis; June Gruber; Dacher Keltner; Juliet L. Stamper; W. Thomas Boyce

2009-01-01

366

From Stockholm to Kyoto and beyond: A review of the globalization of global warming policy and North–South relations  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper provides a historical overview of the role of North–South differences in expectation and priorities in determining how international negotiations about global warming have been framed and implemented. Our analysis looks at two themes: the problem of technology transfer and knowledge inequity and the persistence of the G-77 as the point of departure for Southern action within the context

Björn-Ola Linnér; Merle Jacob

2005-01-01

367

Changes on MidLatitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model  

Microsoft Academic Search

I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI\\/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project \\

K. Miyamoto

2005-01-01

368

Current hiatus of global warming tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Despite the continued increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in this century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Two schools of idea exist regarding what causes this hiatus in global warming: one suggests a slowdown in radiative forcing due to the stratospheric water vapour, the rapid increase of aerosols, and the solar minimum around 2009, while the other considers the hiatus as part of internal variability, especially a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Pacific. We present a method to unravel mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing the observed history of sea surface temperature over the deep tropical Pacific (8.2% of Earth's surface) in a coupled climate model, in addition to radiative forcing. Our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with a correlation coefficient of 0.97 for 1970-2012, a period including the current hiatus and an accelerated global warming from the 1970s to the late 1990s. Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, weakening of Aleutian Low, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and prolonged drought in the southern US. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La Niña-like decadal cooling. While similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2014-05-01

369

Projecting Coral Reef Futures Under Global Warming and Ocean Acidification  

Microsoft Academic Search

Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change,

John M. Pandolfi; Sean R. Connolly; Dustin J. Marshall; Anne L. Cohen

2011-01-01

370

China-European Union Trade and Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

The globalization of trade has numerous environmental implications. Trade results from a geographic separation of consumption and production. This creates a mechanism for consumers to shift environmental pollution to other countries. China is now the world third biggest trader and the second biggest trade partner of EU. China has also overtaken the U.S. as the world biggest CO2 emitter since

Yang Laike; Liao Chun

2010-01-01

371

Global warming and flowering times in Thoreau's Concord: a community perspective.  

PubMed

As a result of climate change, many plants are now flowering measurably earlier than they did in the past. However, some species' flowering times have changed much more than others. Data at the community level can clarify the variation in flowering responses to climate change. In order to determine how North American species' flowering times respond to climate, we analyzed a series of previously unstudied records of the dates of first flowering for over 500 plant taxa in Concord, Massachusetts, USA. These records began with six years of observations by the famous naturalist Henry David Thoreau from 1852 to 1858, continued with 16 years of observations by the botanist Alfred Hosmer in 1878 and 1888-1902, and concluded with our own observations in 2004, 2005, and 2006. From 1852 through 2006, Concord warmed by 2.4 degrees C due to global climate change and urbanization. Using a subset of 43 common species, we determined that plants are now flowering seven days earlier on average than they did in Thoreau's times. Plant flowering times were most correlated with mean temperatures in the one or two months just before flowering and were also correlated with January temperatures. Summer-flowering species showed more interannual variation in flowering time than did spring-flowering species, but the flowering times of spring-flowering species correlated more strongly to mean monthly temperatures. In many cases, such as within the genera Betula and Solidago, closely related, co-occurring species responded to climate very differently from one another. The differences in flowering responses to warming could affect relationships in plant communities as warming continues. Common St. John's wort (Hypericum perforatum) and highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) are particularly responsive to changes in climate, are common across much of the United States, and could serve as indicators of biological responses to climate change. We discuss the need for researchers to be aware, when using data sets involving multiple observers, of how varying methodologies, sample sizes, and sampling intensities affect the results. Finally, we emphasize the importance of using historical observations, like those of Thoreau and Hosmer, as sources of long-term data and to increase public awareness of biological responses to climate change. PMID:18409423

Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Primack, Richard B

2008-02-01

372

Satellite-Based Assessment of the Aerosol Effect on Global Warm Cloud Properties  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We present characteristics of global warm cloud properties and warm-rain process in conjunction with the aerosol index (AI) and the lower-tropospheric stability (LTS). The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Visible/Infrared Radiance Imager (VIRS) simultaneously derive cloud-top droplet effect radius, column droplet radius, cloud fraction, cloud liquid water path, cloud optical depth, and a warm rain index. These cloud properties are clustered by different bins of LTS, and then compared with GOCART-derived AI and MODIS-derived AI values. Results indicate that the characteristics of the aerosol-cloud interactions significant vary between different cloud types and thermodynamic environments. This indicates that the radiative effect and warm-rain process due to aerosols have significant heterogeneous regional climate forcing effects.

Matsui, T.; Masunaga, H.; Pielke, R. A.; Kreidenweis, S. M.; Tao, W.; Chin, M.; Kaufman, Y. J.

2004-12-01

373

The MJO and global warming: a study in CCSM4  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The change in Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitude and variance in response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the 1° nominal resolution community climate system model, version 4 (CCSM4), which has a reasonable representation of the MJO characteristics both dynamically and statistically. The twentieth century CCSM4 run is compared with the warmest twenty-first century projection (representative concentration pathway 8.5, or RCP8.5). The last 20 years of each simulation are compared in their MJO characteristics, including spatial variance distributions of winds, precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, histograms of event amplitude, phase and duration, and composite maps of phases. The RCP8.5 run exhibits increased variance in intraseasonal precipitation, larger-amplitude MJO events, stronger MJO rainfall in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and a greater frequency of MJO occurrence for phases corresponding to enhanced rainfall in the Indian Ocean sector. These features are consistent with the concept of an increased magnitude for the hydrological cycle under greenhouse warming conditions. Conversely, the number of active MJO days decreases and fewer weak MJO events occur in the future climate state. These results motivate further study of these changes since tropical rainfall variability plays such an important role in the region's socio-economic well being.

Subramanian, Aneesh; Jochum, Markus; Miller, Arthur J.; Neale, Richard; Seo, Hyodae; Waliser, Duane; Murtugudde, Raghu

2014-04-01

374

Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: Implications of global warming  

PubMed Central

Insect outbreaks are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with projected changes in global climate through direct effects of climate change on insect populations and through disruption of community interactions. Although there is much concern about mean changes in global climate, the impact of climatic variability itself on species interactions has been little explored. Here, we compare caterpillar–parasitoid interactions across a broad gradient of climatic variability and find that the combined data in 15 geographically dispersed databases show a decrease in levels of parasitism as climatic variability increases. The dominant contribution to this pattern by relatively specialized parasitoid wasps suggests that climatic variability impairs the ability of parasitoids to track host populations. Given the important role of parasitoids in regulating insect herbivore populations in natural and managed systems, we predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of herbivore outbreaks through a disruption of enemy–herbivore dynamics as climates become more variable.

Stireman, J. O.; Dyer, L. A.; Janzen, D. H.; Singer, M. S.; Lill, J. T.; Marquis, R. J.; Ricklefs, R. E.; Gentry, G. L.; Hallwachs, W.; Coley, P. D.; Barone, J. A.; Greeney, H. F.; Connahs, H.; Barbosa, P.; Morais, H. C.; Diniz, I. R.

2005-01-01

375

Investigations into Wetland Carbon Sequestration as Remediation for Global Warming  

SciTech Connect

Wetlands can potentially sequester vast amounts of carbon. However, over 50% of wetlands globally have been degraded or lost. Restoration of wetland systems may therefore result in increased sequestration of carbon. Preliminary results of our investigations into atmospheric carbon sequestration by restored coastal wetlands indicate that carbon can be sequestered in substantial quantities in the first 2-50 years after restoration of natural hydrology and sediment accretion processes.

Thom, Ronald M.; Blanton, Susan L.; Borde, Amy B.; Williams, Greg D.; Woodruff, Dana L.; Huesemann, Michael H.; KW Nehring and SE Brauning

2002-01-01

376

Eddy parametrization and the oceanic response to idealized global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

.  ?A coarse-grid global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to determine the role of sub-grid scale eddy parametrization\\u000a schemes in the response to idealized changes in the surface heat flux, of the same order as expected under increased atmospheric\\u000a CO2 concentrations. Two schemes are employed. The first (H) incorporates standard horizontal mixing, whereas the second (G) combines\\u000a both enhanced

S. B. Power; A. C. Hirst

1997-01-01

377

Increasing Risk of Droughts and Floods in Taiwan: Aerosols or Global Warming?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. We examine data from 15 Taiwan Central Weather Bureau stations in the period 1961-2011, as well as global data from the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project, V1.0, 1979-2007), to show that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes in the precipitation extremes. Significant increases of annual total dry days and >=7 consecutive dry days in Taiwan during 1961-2011 are shown to be a result of the decrease in light precipitation and increase in heavy precipitation, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher risk of floods and droughts. Similar links are expected over widespread regions of the globe.

Liu, S. C.

2013-12-01

378

Blunt ocean dynamical thermostat in response of tropical eastern Pacific SST to global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Using an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled model (ICM) for the tropical Pacific, we investigated the role of the ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) in regulating the tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) under global warming conditions. The external, uniformly distributed surface heating results in the cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific "cold tongue," and the amplitude of the cooling increases as more heat is added but not simply linearly. Furthermore, an upper bound for the influence of the equatorially symmetric surface heating on the cold tongue cooling exists. The additional heating beyond the upper bound does not cool the cold tongue in a systematic manner. The heat budget analysis suggests that the zonal advection is the primary factor that contributes to such nonlinear SST response. The radiative heating due to the greenhouse effect (hereafter, RHG) that is obtained from the multi-model ensemble of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase III (CMIP3) was externally given to ICM. The RHG obtained from the twentieth century simulation intensified the cold tongue cooling and the subtropical warming, which were further intensified by the RHG from the doubled CO2 concentration simulation. However, the cold tongue cooling was significantly reduced and the negative SST response region was shrunken toward the equator by the RHG from the quadrupled CO2 concentration simulation, while the subtropical warming increased further. A systematic RHG forced experiment having the same spatial pattern of RHG from doubled CO2 concentration simulation with different amplitude of forcing revealed that the ocean dynamical response to global warming tended to enhance the cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific by virtue of meridional advection and upwelling; however, these cooling effects could not fully compensate a given RHG warming as the external forcing becomes larger. Moreover, the feedback by the zonal thermal advection actually exerted the warming over the equatorial region. Therefore, as the global warming is intensified, the cooling over the eastern tropical Pacific by ODT and the negative SST response area are reduced.

An, Soon-Il; Im, Seul-Hee

2013-12-01

379

Projection of Summer Climate on Tokyo Metropolitan Area using Pseudo Global Warming Method  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent surface air temperature observations in most of urban areas show the remarkable increasing trend affected by the global warming and the heat island effects. There are many populous areas in Japan. In such areas, the effects of land-use change and urbanization on the local climate are not negligible (Fujibe, 2010). The heat stress for citizen there is concerned to swell moreover in the future. Therefore, spatially detailed climate projection is required for making adaptation and mitigation plans. This study focuses on the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) in summer and aims to estimate the local climate change over the TMA in 2070s using a regional climate model. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) was used for downscaling. A single layer urban canopy model (Kusaka et al., 2001) is built into RAMS as a parameterization expressing the features of urban surface. We performed two experiments for estimating present and future climate. In the present climate simulation, the initial and boundary conditions for RAMS are provided from the JRA-25/JCDAS. On the other hand, the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) method (Sato et al., 2007) is applied to estimate the future climate, instead of the conventional dynamical downscaling method. The PGW method is expected to reduce the model biases in the future projection estimated by Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). The boundary conditions used in the PGW method is given by the PGW data, which are obtained by adding the climate monthly difference between 1990s and 2070s estimated by AOGCMs to the 6-hourly reanalysis data. In addition, the uncertainty in the regional climate projection depending on the AOGCM projections is estimated from additional downscaling experiments using the different PGW data obtained from five AOGCMs. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Global Environment Research Fund (S-5-3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. References: 1. Fujibe, F., Int. J. Climatol., doi:10.1002/joc.2142 (2010). 2. Kusaka, H., H. Kondo, Y. Kikegawa, and F. Kimura, Bound.-Layer Meteor., 101, 329-358 (2001). 3. Sato, T., F. Kimura, and A. Kitoh, J. Hydrology, 144-154 (2007).

Adachi, S. A.; Kimura, F.; Kusaka, H.; Hara, M.

2010-12-01

380

Global dimming/brightening and 20th century warming as observed and simulated in GCMs  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Observations indicate that greenhouse induced 20th century warming has been strongly modulated by variations in surface solar radiation. Between the 1950s and 1980s declining surface solar radiation ("global dimming") likely caused a dampening of global warming, whereas increasing surface solar radiation ("brightening") may have contributed to the rapid warming in the last two decades and possibly also the first half of the 20th century. This is also reflected in the decadal evolution of diurnal temperature range, which is highly correlated with surface solar radiation, and which shows a distinct transition from a strong decrease between the 1950s and 1980s, towards a levelling off thereafter (Wild et al. 2007, Makowski et al. 2008). The present study investigates to what extent these effects are simulated in the latest generation of climate models used in the 4th IPCC assessment report. The analysis suggests that the models tend to underestimate the decadal variations in surface temperature over global land surfaces, not only in the mean temperature evolution, but particularly also in diurnal temperature range, indicative for a lack of decadal variations in surface solar radiation in the models (Wild 2009). References: Wild, M., Ohmura A., Makowski, K., 2007: Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L04702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028031. Makowski, K., Wild, M., and Ohmura, A., 2008: Diurnal temperature range over Europe between 1950 and 2005, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 6483-6498, 2008. Wild, M., 2009: How well do the IPCC AR4/CMIP3 models simulate global dimming/brightening and the 20th century daytime and nighttime warming? Submitted to J. Geophys. Res.

Wild, M.; Ohmura, A.; Makowski, K.

2009-04-01

381

Global projections of changing risks of flood under the global warming simulated by MIROC GCM  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (T106; about 1.1-degree) general circulation model (GCM) was used to investigate future projections of population changes under risks of more frequent flooding. A statistically significant increase or decrease in flood frequency was not predicted in the 20th century, and they are first appeared around the middle of the 21st century in 21 of 30 large global rivers. Statistics of world disasters indicated that the mean population impacted by flood disasters from 1991 to 2000 was 1.45 billion (2.5% of total population). The simulated global mean population which has affected by daily discharge higher than the 20C 100-year flood (defined using daily discharge from 1901 to 2000) was about 0.51 billion (0.9% of total population) for 1991-2000, while for 2091-2100 this increases to 6.96 billion (9.5% of total population). Minimum of flood-affected population after the middle of the 21st century becomes higher than the maximum of flood-affected population in the 20th century. Annual fluctuation of the recorded flood-affected population was higher than that estimated using the modeled 20C 100-year flood. It is therefore important to show ranges of the flood-affected population in the model simulation using a statistical method, taking into account years when floods are concentrated in high- populated regions and years when most floods occurred in low-populated regions. Statistical analysis using the Monte Carlo approach revealed that the population experiencing daily discharge higher than the 20C 100-year flood from 2091 to 2100 is in the top 35% of the ranges of possible number of populations (sum of population in regions that were randomly selected from global land of the same area as the regions with flood discharge), while that in 1991-2000 was below 30% of the probable population sets. This result indicates that future flood increases will be more common in regions with high population densities.

Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

2008-12-01

382

Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2  

PubMed

A low-order physical-biogeochemical climate model was used to project atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming for scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation weakens in all global warming simulations and collapses at high levels of carbon dioxide. Projected changes in the marine carbon cycle have a modest impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Compared with the control, atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 4 percent at year 2100 and 20 percent at year 2500. The reduction in ocean carbon uptake can be mainly explained by sea surface warming. The projected changes of the marine biological cycle compensate the reduction in downward mixing of anthropogenic carbon, except when the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses. PMID:10205049

Joos; Plattner; Stocker; Marchal; Schmittner

1999-04-16

383

Impact of the global warming on the fluvial thermal erosion over the Lena River in Central Siberia  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The hydrology of the Lena and its tributaries is characterized by an extremely episodic flow regime. Here we report recent climatic change in Central Siberia, and its impact on the fluvial thermal erosion. We point out three major changes since the 1980s: a marked reduction of the river ice thickness in winter, a pronounced increase of the water stream temperature in spring and a slight increase of the discharge during the break up (May-June). A GIS analysis based on aerial pictures and satellite images highlights the impact of the water warming on the frozen banks. The vegetated islands appear to be very sensitive to the water temperature increase, showing an acceleration of their head retreat (+21-29%). This suggests that recent global warming directly affects the fluvial dynamics and the erosional process of one of the largest arctic fluvial system.

Costard, F.; Gautier, E.; Brunstein, D.; Hammadi, J.; Fedorov, A.; Yang, D.; Dupeyrat, L.

2007-07-01

384

Effects of Global Warming on Predatory Bugs Supported by Data Across Geographic and Seasonal Climatic Gradients  

PubMed Central

Global warming may affect species abundance and distribution, as well as temperature-dependent morphometric traits. In this study, we first used historical data to document changes in Orius (Heteroptera: Anthocoridae) species assemblage and individual morphometric traits over the past seven decades in Israel. We then tested whether these changes could have been temperature driven by searching for similar patterns across seasonal and geographic climatic gradients in a present survey. The historical records indicated a shift in the relative abundance of dominant Orius species; the relative abundance of O. albidipennis, a desert-adapted species, increased while that of O. laevigatus decreased in recent decades by 6 and 10–15 folds, respectively. These shifts coincided with an overall increase of up to 2.1°C in mean daily temperatures over the last 25 years in Israel. Similar trends were found in contemporary data across two other climatic gradients, seasonal and geographic; O. albidipennis dominated Orius assemblages under warm conditions. Finally, specimens collected in the present survey were significantly smaller than those from the 1980’s, corresponding to significantly smaller individuals collected now during warmer than colder seasons. Taken together, results provide strong support to the hypothesis that temperature is the most likely driver of the observed shifts in species composition and body sizes because (1) historical changes in both species assemblage and body size were associated with rising temperatures in the study region over the last few decades; and (2) similar changes were observed as a result of contemporary drivers that are associated with temperature.

Schuldiner-Harpaz, Tarryn; Coll, Moshe

2013-01-01

385

The Search for Warming in Global Temperatures: Data, Methods and Unresolved Questions  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global climate change policy is motivated by recent warnings that the world is heating up by a rate of at least 0.14 degrees C\\/decade. Global temperatures measured at the surface contain a positive trend of about 0.04 oC\\/decade since 1856. Evidence for an acceleration of warming after1979 appears in the surface thermometer network, but not in data collected by weather

Ross McKitrick

2001-01-01

386

Global Warming and Carbon Dynamics in Permafrost Soils: Methane Production and Oxidation  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Arctic plays a key role in the Earth’s climate system, because global warming is predicted to be most pronounced at high\\u000a latitudes, and one third of the global carbon pool is stored in ecosystems of the northern latitudes. The degradation of permafrost\\u000a and the associated intensified release of methane, a climate-relevant trace gas, represent potential environmental hazards.\\u000a The microorganisms

Dirk Wagner; Susanne Liebner

387

Effect of ocean thermal diffusivity on global warming induced by increasing atmospheric CO 2  

Microsoft Academic Search

A global mean ocean model including atmospheric heating, heat capacity of the mixed layer ocean, and vertical thermal diffusivity\\u000a in the lower ocean, proposed by Cess and Goldenberg (1981), is used in this paper to study the sensitivity of global warming\\u000a to the vertical diffusivity. The results suggest that the behaviour of upper ocean temperature is mainly determined by the

Ning Bao; Xuehong Zhang

1991-01-01

388

Long time management of fossil fuel resources to limit global warming and avoid ice age onsets  

Microsoft Academic Search

There are about 5000 billion tons of fossil fuel carbon in accessible reserves. Combustion of all this carbon within the next few centuries would force high atmospheric CO2 content and extreme global warming. On the other hand, low atmospheric CO2 content favors the onset of an ice age when changes in the Earth's orbit lead to low summer insolation at

Gary Shaffer

2009-01-01

389

Global warming response options in Brazil's forest sector: Comparison of project-level costs and benefits  

Microsoft Academic Search

A project-level assessment of monetary and carbon costs and benefits for five classes of global warming response options in the forest sector is attempted for typical Brazilian conditions. Options considered are: silvicultural plantations (for pulp, charcoal and sawlogs), sustainable timber management and reduction of deforestation. Comparison of pulpwood and sawlog plantations with the vegetation characteristic of deforested areas indicates a

Philip M. Fearnside

1995-01-01

390

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE ON VIOLENT CRIME: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL WARMING  

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between ambient temperature and violent crime and to assess what that relationship may imply as the global climate warms. The relationship between temperature and violence has been described alternatively as a positive li...

391

High sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes  

Microsoft Academic Search

Unknowns in future global warming are usually assumed to arise from uncertainties either in the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or in the sensitivity of the climate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Characterizing the additional uncertainty in relating CO2 emissions to atmospheric concentrations has relied on either a small number of complex models with diversity in process representations,

Ben B B Booth; Chris D Jones; Mat Collins; Ian J Totterdell; Peter M Cox; Stephen Sitch; Chris Huntingford; Richard A Betts; Glen R Harris; Jon Lloyd

2012-01-01

392

Corporate risk management strategies under threats of global warming-Taiwan's experience  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global warming has being become a highly concerned issue, because the increasing of carbon dioxide (CO2) will not only result in the future catastrophe of the environment, but also brings risks to the enterprises. As major contributors of CO2 in the atmosphere, enterprises also play significant roles for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Based on an extensive literature review on finding

Yu-Ling Chen; Allen H. Hu; Chao-Heng Tseng

393

GOZDNI PO@ARI IN OTOPLITEV NA SVETU Future Wildfire in Relation to Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Canada is conducting research on future wildfires in circumpolar forests related to global warming. In contrast to the research of B.J. Stocks and others (1996), in which climatic changes and their impact on wildfires, fire emission and effects on the atmos- phere were analyzed using monthly data from four models of general circulation, Flanningan and oth- ers resorted to, in

Tomislav Dimitrov

394

Assessing the Impacts of Future 2°C Global Warming on Southern Ocean Cetaceans  

Microsoft Academic Search

Predicting the impact of global warming on polar marine ecosystems requires the combined efforts of climate modelers and marine ecologists. A subset of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) climate model output for emission scenario 'Special Report on Emission Scenarios' (SRES) A1B (doubling of CO 2 from 360 and stabilizing at 720 after 2100) was used

CYNTHIA TYNAN; JOELLEN RUSSELL

395

Addressing Global Warming, Air Pollution Health Damage, and Long-Term Energy Needs Simultaneously  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary Proponents of ethanol suggest that it is a clean and renewable fuel that will reduce air pollution and address climate change. Data, computer model results, and new emission information suggest that ethanol is neither clean nor has it been shown that it can slow global warming. To the contrary, its promotion will continue the public health crisis that has

Mark Z. Jacobson

396

Conflict or Cooperation Over Global Warming Policy? AN Analysis Based on the Interaction of Countries  

Microsoft Academic Search

Response to climatic change due to global warming, rather than being the common response of humankind to a common problem, may well be the product of decisions made by countries with diverse and possibly divergent interests. This dissertation analyzes the interactions of countries with diverse interests. Each country's economic production is assumed to increase at a decreasing rate with respect

Daniel Michael Ihara

1991-01-01

397

The importance of expressly examining global warming policy issues through an ethical prism  

Microsoft Academic Search

A vast scientific and economic literature on global warming has emerged in the last two decades. Surprisingly, however, there has been little written on the ethical dimensions of human-induced climate change despite the numerous, obvious, and profoundly important ethical questions raised by human activities that are now clearly threatening human health, the environment, and many things humans value greatly. This

Donald A. Brown

2003-01-01

398

Increase of South Pacific eastern subtropical mode water under global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

The response of South Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (SPESTMW) to global warming is investigated by comparing solutions from a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled models between a present-day climate and a future, warmer climate. Under the warmer climate scenario, the SPESTMW extends southwestward and is significantly increased in volume. This is

Yiyong Luo; Qinyu Liu; Lewis M. Rothstein

2011-01-01

399

Screening Level Analysis of Several Geo-engineering Techniques Intended to Mitigate Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Within the past few years, a number of papers have appeared in the literature that describe alternative geo- engineering techniques that could be used to supplement more mainstream options to mitigate global warming. An example of a mainstream option is carbon capture and storage, and an example of a geo-engineering approach is an orbiting satellite that provides a sun-shade to

W. B. Mills

2007-01-01

400

The relationship between personal experience and belief in the reality of global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In this paper, we address the chicken-or-egg question posed by two alternative explanations for the relationship between perceived personal experience of global warming and belief certainty that global warming is happening: Do observable climate impacts create opportunities for people to become more certain of the reality of global warming, or does prior belief certainty shape people's perceptions of impacts through a process of motivated reasoning? We use data from a nationally representative sample of Americans surveyed first in 2008 and again in 2011; these longitudinal data allow us to evaluate the causal relationships between belief certainty and perceived experience, assessing the impact of each on the other over time. Among the full survey sample, we found that both processes occurred: `experiential learning', where perceived personal experience of global warming led to increased belief certainty, and `motivated reasoning', where high belief certainty influenced perceptions of personal experience. We then tested and confirmed the hypothesis that motivated reasoning occurs primarily among people who are already highly engaged in the issue whereas experiential learning occurs primarily among people who are less engaged in the issue, which is particularly important given that approximately 75% of American adults currently have low levels of engagement.

Myers, Teresa A.; Maibach, Edward W.; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Akerlof, Karen; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

2013-04-01

401

Laboratory Modeling of Space experiments on Expulsion of CO2 ions. Application to Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

An approach to expel minority species which can contribute to global warming from the upper atmosphere in the Arctic region by the use of HF electromagnetic waves has been proposed [1]. Laboratory plasma experiments have been designed to model various aspects of this concept - from the acquisiton of negative charges by green house gases such as CO2 to their

A. Y. Wong

2007-01-01

402

Application of Electromagnetic Wave-Ionospheric Interactions to Global Warming in the Arctic Region  

Microsoft Academic Search

An approach to expel pollutants which can contribute to global warming from the upper atmosphere by the use of HF electromagnetic waves has been proposed [1]. Laboratory plasma experiments have shown significant gyro-resonance acceleration of minority ion species in a plasma is possible. The separation of ions differing in mass by one unit has been achieved. This method is applicable

G. Rosenthal; A. Y. Wong; B. Quon; J. Pau

2004-01-01

403

Application of electromagnetic-wave-ionospheric interactions to global warming in the arctic region  

Microsoft Academic Search

An approach to expel pollutants which can contribute to global warming from the upper atmosphere by the use of HF electromagnetic waves has been proposed [1]. Laboratory plasma experiments have shown that significant gyro-resonance acceleration of minority ion species in a plasma is possible. The separation of ions differing in mass by one unit has been achieved. This method is

A. Y. Wong

2004-01-01

404

Science blogging: RealClimate.org and the Global Warming debate  

Microsoft Academic Search

The media and public policy debate suffer from an extreme form of Attention Deficit Disorder. Compared to the daily news cycle, the progress of scientific debate within the peer-reviewed literature is extremely slow. This puts serious scientists who work in relatively politicised fields (global warming, evolution, stem cell research and the like) at a huge disadvantage when it comes to

G. A. Schmidt

2006-01-01

405

Global warming and the regional persistence of a temperate-zone insect (Tenodera sinensis)  

SciTech Connect

Models based on the paleoecological record predict that animals in temperate regions will respond to global warming by migrating poleward to remain within their temperature tolerance ranges. The effect of global warming on invertebrates is of great concern because of their critical role in ecosystem structure and function. Migration poses a problem for many species because of their limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperature zone univoltine insect. Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae) is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before the killing frost in the autumn; too many allow egg hatch before a killing frost. We used field and laboratory observation on the life history and ecology of this species to predict the effect of global warming on the regional distribution of this insect by the end of the next century. Based on the simplified, best-case, biological assumptions of our model, the geographical range of T. sinensis in eastern North America would be compressed toward the northern part of its present contiguous regional distribution. This and other univoltine temperate species with long maturation periods and low vagility could face regional extinction if global warming predictions are accurate. 61 refs., 3 figs.

Rooney, T.P. [Indiana Univ. of Pennsylvania, Indiana, PA (United States); Smith, A.T. [Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (United States); Hurd, L.E. [Washington & Lee Univ., Lexington, VA (United States)

1996-07-01

406

Australian Secondary Students' Views about Global Warming: Beliefs about Actions, and Willingness to Act  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

A 44-item questionnaire was constructed to determine secondary students' views about how useful various specific actions might be at reducing global warming, their willingness to undertake the various actions, and the extent to which these two might be linked. Responses (n = 500) were obtained from students in years 7 to 10 in three schools in…

Boyes, Edward; Skamp, Keith; Stanisstreet, Martin

2009-01-01

407

The role of renewable energy in global warming mitigation -- A critique of trusted assessments  

Microsoft Academic Search

Two recent Congressionally-commissioned studies - one by the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) and the other by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - support the position that action should be taken now to reduce emissions causing global warming, and find that significant reductions can be achieved at relatively low cost. The authors accept these general conclusions, but take issue

Nancy Rader; Jan Hamrin

1992-01-01

408

Rethinking the costs related to global warming: A survey of the issues  

Microsoft Academic Search

One approach to the economic analysis of global warming seeks to balance the costs of damage from or adaptation to it with the costs of mitigating it. The costs of adaptation and damage have been estimated using techniques of environmental evaluation, but are subject to a wide margin of uncertainty. The costs of mitigation, principally by reducing the emissions of

Paul Ekins

1995-01-01

409

Impact of Nitrogen Cycling on Global Warming in Agro-Ecosystems of East Asia  

Microsoft Academic Search

Nitrate (NO3-N) runoff from the pedosphere to the aquasphere causes marine eutrophication and groundwater pollution. Nitrous oxide (N2O) emission from the pedosphere to the atmosphere causes global warming and ozone layer depletion. The current net nitrogen input (NNI), which is defined as the difference between total N input to land area (chemical fertilizer N application, import of N in food

Ryusuke Hatano

410

Global warming impacts of ozone-safe refrigerants and refrigeration, heating, and air-conditioning technologies  

Microsoft Academic Search

International agreements mandate the phase-out of many chlorine containing compounds that are used as the working fluid in refrigeration, air-conditioning, and heating equipment. Many of the chemical compounds that have been proposed, and are being used in place of the class of refrigerants eliminated by the Montreal Protocol are now being questioned because of their possible contributions to global warming.

S. Fischer; J. Sand; V. Baxter

1997-01-01

411

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry  

Microsoft Academic Search

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate

Philip M. Fearnside; Daniel A. Lashof; Pedro Moura-Costa

2000-01-01

412

Recovery of fluorocarbons in Japan as a measure for abating global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for recovering fluorocarbons as measures for the abatement of global warming. In this study, we focused on the three different kinds of fluorocarbons: CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs, and targeted refrigerant use because of the availability of relevant data. We first estimated future fluorocarbon emissions from the targeted appliances; we next

Tatsuya Hanaoka; Hisashi Ishitani; Ryuji Matsuhashi; Yoshikuni Yoshida

2002-01-01

413

Severe convective weather in the context of a nighttime global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

The recent finding that most of the global warming observed these past decades is due to an increase of the nighttime temperature may have important implications on severe storms occurrence. Indeed, the daily minimum temperature which is generally recorded in the early morning is an approximation of the wet bulb potential temperature observed during the following afternoon, which is a

Jean Dessens

1995-01-01

414

The intensity of precipitation during extratropical cyclones in global warming simulations: a link to cyclone intensity?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Simulations of global warming over the coming century from two CSIRO GCMs are analysed to assess changes in the intensity of extratropical cyclones, and the potential role of increased latent heating associated with precipitation during cyclones. A simple surface cyclone detection scheme is applied to a four-member ensemble of simulations from the Mark 2 GCM, under rising greenhouse gas concentrations.

I. G. Watterson

2006-01-01

415

Response of the Zonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation to El Niño versus Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

The change in the zonal mean atmospheric circulation under global warming is studied in comparison with the response to El Niño forcing, by examining the model simulations conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In contrast to the strengthening and contraction of the Hadley cell and the equatorward shift of the tropospheric zonal jets

Jian Lu; Gang Chen; Dargan M. W. Frierson

2008-01-01

416

Response of the zonal mean atmospheric circulation to El Nino versus global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

The change in the zonal mean atmospheric circulation under global warming is studied in comparison with the response to El Nino forcing, by examining the model simulations conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In contrast to the strengthening and contraction of the Hadley cell and the equatorward shift of the tropospheric zonal jets

J. Lu; G. Chen; D. Frierson

2007-01-01

417

Sensitivity of the Ocean's Climate to Diapycnal Diffusivity in an EMIC. Part II: Global Warming Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

The sensitivity of the ocean's climate to the diapycnal diffusivity in the ocean is studied for a global warming scenario in which CO2 increases by 1% yr-1 for 75 yr. The thermohaline circulation slows down for about 100 yr and recovers afterward, for any value of the diapycnal diffusivity. The rates of slowdown and of recovery, as well as the

Fabio Dalan; Peter H. Stone; Andrei P. Sokolov

2005-01-01

418

Conference Summary: First International Conference on Global Warming and the Next Ice Age.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The First International Conference on Global Warming and the Next Ice Age was convened in Halifax, Nova Scotia, August 19-24, 2001. The conference program began each day with a 30 minute live classical music performances of truly international quality bef...

P. J. Wetzel P. Chylek G. Lesins

2002-01-01

419

Evaluation of the potential impact of methane clathrate destabilization on future global warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Future global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases has the potential to destabilize methane clathrates, which are found in permafrost regions and in continental slope sediments worldwide, resulting in the release of methane gas. Since methane is a strong greenhouse gas, this could produce a potentially important positive feedback. Here, the coupled heat transfer and methane destabilization process

L. D. Danny Harvey; Zhen Huang

1995-01-01

420

How to protect the Earth from Global warming by means of Sunlight Shield Equipments  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Earth is getting warmer because excess carbon dioxide of the Earth's atmosphere. Many studies are proceeding in the world in order to prevent global warming. Three methods are studied: (1) How to reduce carbon dioxide of the Earth's atmosphere. For example, more trees will be planted and carbon dioxide is changed to oxygen and carbon. (2) How to reduce

H. Murakami

2010-01-01

421

Student Exercises on Fossil Fuels, Global Warming, and Gaia  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a In a recent series of tutorial papers, Rust [7,8,9,10] modelled measured time series for global temperatures and fossil fuel\\u000a CO2\\\\mbox{CO}_{2} emissions with related combinations of polynomials, exponentials, and sinusoids, using least squares fits that can be done\\u000a by students well grounded in practical statistics. The analysis suggested that temperatures cycle around a monotonically increasing,\\u000a accelerating baseline with a period of

Bert W. Rust

2004-01-01

422

Physiological constraints on organismal response to global warming: mechanistic insights from clinally varying populations and implications for assessing endangerment  

PubMed Central

Recent syntheses indicate that global warming affects diverse biological processes, but also highlight the potential for some species to adapt behaviourally or evolutionarily to rapid climate change. Far less attention has addressed the alternative, that organisms lacking this ability may face extinction, a fate projected to befall one-quarter of global biodiversity. This conclusion is controversial, in part because there exist few mechanistic studies that show how climate change could precipitate extinction. We provide a concrete, mechanistic example of warming as a stressor of organisms that are closely adapted to cool climates from a comparative analysis of organismal tolerance among clinally varying populations along a natural thermal gradient. We found that two montane salamanders exhibit significant metabolic depression at temperatures within the natural thermal range experienced by low and middle elevation populations. Moreover, the magnitude of depression was inversely related to native elevation, suggesting that low elevation populations are already living near the limit of their physiological tolerances. If this finding generally applies to other montane specialists, the prognosis for biodiversity loss in typically diverse montane systems is sobering. We propose that indices of warming-induced stress tolerance may provide a critical new tool for quantitative assessments of endangerment due to anthropogenic climate change across diverse species.

Bernardo, Joseph; Spotila, James R

2005-01-01

423

Integrated Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Stabilization Concentrations, Emission Pathways, and Impact Threshold Values for Control of Global Warming  

Microsoft Academic Search

To mitigate the dangerous impacts of global warming to the greatest extent possible, various green- house gas stabilization scenarios have been proposed. Integrated studies are proceeding on emission pathways and the costs of achieving climate stabilization, as well as on the impact risks of global warm- ing. This paper summarizes the existing knowledge on temperature rise, mitigation measures and impact

Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI

424

An investigation of possible effects of global warming on forest fires in Kentucky from 1945 to 2004  

Microsoft Academic Search

This investigation seeks to find a relation between the frequencies of forest fires with acreage burned in the state of Kentucky and the factors of global warming. Under global warming, we focus on the components climate change and precipitation rate in hopes of establishing this relationship. In delving deeper into the effects of forest fires, or wildfires, we explore a

Samuel J. Ivy; Jamika Baltrop; Ashley J. Sullivan; Kevin Wingfield; Amanda Eure

425

Intermodel variability of future changes in the Baiu rainband estimated by the pseudo global warming downscaling method  

Microsoft Academic Search

Changes in the Baiu rainband owing to global warming are assessed by the pseudo global warming downscaling method (PGW-DS). The PGW-DS is similar to the conventional dynamical downscaling method using a regional climate model (RCM), but the boundary conditions of the RCM are obtained by adding the difference between the future and present climates simulated by coupled general circulation models

Hiroaki Kawase; Takao Yoshikane; Masayuki Hara; Fujio Kimura; Tetsuzo Yasunari; Borjiginte Ailikun; Hiroaki Ueda; Tomoshige Inoue

2009-01-01

426

The Role of Ocean in the Response of Tropical Climatology to Global Warming: The West-East SST Contrast  

Microsoft Academic Search

A theory of tropical climatology is used to study the role of ocean in the response of tropical climatology to global warming. Special emphasis is given to the response of the west-east SST contrast along the equator. The transient response of tropical sea surface temperature to a global warming is shown to have two distinctive stages: a fast surface adjustment

Zhengyu Liu

1998-01-01

427

Global warming favours light-coloured insects in Europe  

PubMed Central

Associations between biological traits of animals and climate are well documented by physiological and local-scale studies. However, whether an ecophysiological phenomenon can affect large-scale biogeographical patterns of insects is largely unknown. Insects absorb energy from the sun to become mobile, and their colouration varies depending on the prevailing climate where they live. Here we show, using data of 473 European butterfly and dragonfly species, that dark-coloured insect species are favoured in cooler climates and light-coloured species in warmer climates. By comparing distribution maps of dragonflies from 1988 and 2006, we provide support for a mechanistic link between climate, functional traits and species that affects geographical distributions even at continental scales. Our results constitute a foundation for better forecasting the effect of climate change on many insect groups.

Zeuss, Dirk; Brandl, Roland; Brandle, Martin; Rahbek, Carsten; Brunzel, Stefan

2014-01-01

428

Global warming favours light-coloured insects in Europe.  

PubMed

Associations between biological traits of animals and climate are well documented by physiological and local-scale studies. However, whether an ecophysiological phenomenon can affect large-scale biogeographical patterns of insects is largely unknown. Insects absorb energy from the sun to become mobile, and their colouration varies depending on the prevailing climate where they live. Here we show, using data of 473 European butterfly and dragonfly species, that dark-coloured insect species are favoured in cooler climates and light-coloured species in warmer climates. By comparing distribution maps of dragonflies from 1988 and 2006, we provide support for a mechanistic link between climate, functional traits and species that affects geographical distributions even at continental scales. Our results constitute a foundation for better forecasting the effect of climate change on many insect groups. PMID:24866819

Zeuss, Dirk; Brandl, Roland; Brändle, Martin; Rahbek, Carsten; Brunzel, Stefan

2014-01-01

429

Variability of terrestrial carbon cycle and its interaction with climate under global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Land-atmosphere carbon exchange makes a significant contribution to the variability of atmospheric CO2 concentration on time scales of seasons to centuries. In this thesis, a terrestrial vegetation and carbon model, VEgetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS), is used to study the interactions between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate over a wide-range of temporal and spatial scales. The VEGAS model was first evaluated by comparison with FLUXNET observations. One primary focus of the thesis was to investigate the interannual variability of terrestrial carbon cycle related to climate variations, in particular to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our analysis indicates that VEGAS can properly capture the response of terrestrial carbon cycle to ENSO: suppression of vegetative activity coupled with enhancement of soil decomposition, due to predominant warmer and drier climate patterns over tropical land associated with El Nino. The combined affect of these forcings causes substantial carbon flux into the atmosphere. A unique aspect of this work is to quantify the direct and indirect effects of soil wetness vegetation activities and consequently on land-atmosphere carbon fluxes. Besides this canonic dominance of the tropical response to ENSO, our modeling study simulated a large carbon flux from the northern mid-latitudes, triggered by the 1998-2002 drought and warming in the region. Our modeling indicates that this drought could be responsible for the abnormally high increase in atmospheric CO2 growth rate (2 ppm/yr) during 2002-2003. We then investigated the carbon cycle-climate feedback in the 21 st century. A modest feedback was identified, and the result was incorporated into the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (C4MIP). Using the fully coupled carbon cycle-climate simulations from C4MIP, we examined the carbon uptake in the Northern High Latitudes poleward of 60°N (NHL) in the 21st century. C4MIP model results project that the NHL will be a carbon sink by 2100, as CO2 fertilization and warming stimulate vegetation growth, canceling the effect of enhancement of soil decomposition by warming. However, such competing mechanisms may lead to a switch of NHL from a net carbon sink to source after 2100. All these effects are enhanced as a result of positive carbon cycle-climate feedbacks.

Qian, Haifeng

430

Joint CO2 and CH4 accountability for global warming.  

PubMed

We propose a transparent climate debt index incorporating both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We develop national historic emissions databases for both greenhouse gases to 2005, justifying 1950 as the starting point for global perspectives. We include CO2 emissions from fossil sources [CO2(f)], as well as, in a separate analysis, land use change and forestry. We calculate the CO2(f) and CH4 remaining in the atmosphere in 2005 from 205 countries using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report impulse response functions. We use these calculations to estimate the fraction of remaining global emissions due to each country, which is applied to total radiative forcing in 2005 to determine the combined climate debt from both greenhouse gases in units of milliwatts per square meter per country or microwatts per square meter per person, a metric we term international natural debt (IND). Australia becomes the most indebted large country per capita because of high CH4 emissions, overtaking the United States, which is highest for CO2(f). The differences between the INDs of developing and developed countries decline but remain large. We use IND to assess the relative reduction in IND from choosing between CO2(f) and CH4`control measures and to contrast the imposed versus experienced health impacts from climate change. Based on 2005 emissions, the same hypothetical impact on world 2050 IND could be achieved by decreasing CH4 emissions by 46% as stopping CO2 emissions entirely, but with substantial differences among countries, implying differential optimal strategies. Adding CH4 shifts the basic narrative about differential international accountability for climate change. PMID:23847202

Smith, Kirk R; Desai, Manish A; Rogers, Jamesine V; Houghton, Richard A

2013-07-30

431

Joint CO2 and CH4 accountability for global warming  

PubMed Central

We propose a transparent climate debt index incorporating both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We develop national historic emissions databases for both greenhouse gases to 2005, justifying 1950 as the starting point for global perspectives. We include CO2 emissions from fossil sources [CO2(f)], as well as, in a separate analysis, land use change and forestry. We calculate the CO2(f) and CH4 remaining in the atmosphere in 2005 from 205 countries using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report impulse response functions. We use these calculations to estimate the fraction of remaining global emissions due to each country, which is applied to total radiative forcing in 2005 to determine the combined climate debt from both greenhouse gases in units of milliwatts per square meter per country or microwatts per square meter per person, a metric we term international natural debt (IND). Australia becomes the most indebted large country per capita because of high CH4 emissions, overtaking the United States, which is highest for CO2(f). The differences between the INDs of developing and developed countries decline but remain large. We use IND to assess the relative reduction in IND from choosing between CO2(f) and CH4`control measures and to contrast the imposed versus experienced health impacts from climate change. Based on 2005 emissions, the same hypothetical impact on world 2050 IND could be achieved by decreasing CH4 emissions by 46% as stopping CO2 emissions entirely, but with substantial differences among countries, implying differential optimal strategies. Adding CH4 shifts the basic narrative about differential international accountability for climate change.

Smith, Kirk R.; Desai, Manish A.; Rogers, Jamesine V.; Houghton, Richard A.

2013-01-01

432

Vegetation-atmosphere interactions and their role in global warming during the latest Cretaceous  

PubMed Central

Forest vegetation has the ability to warm Recent climate by its effects on albedo and atmospheric water vapour, but the role of vegetation in warming climates of the geologic past is poorly understood. This study evaluates the role of forest vegetation in maintaining warm climates of the Late Cretaceous by (1) reconstructing global palaeovegetation for the latest Cretaceous (Maastrichtian); (2) modelling latest Cretaceous climate under unvegetated conditions and different distributions of palaeovegetation; and (3) comparing model output with a global database of palaeoclimatic indicators. Simulation of Maastrichtian climate with the land surface coded as bare soil produces high-latitude temperatures that are too cold to explain the documented palaeogeographic distribution of forest and woodland vegetation. In contrast, simulations that include forest vegetation at high latitudes show significantly warmer temperatures that are sufficient to explain the widespread geographic distribution of high-latitude deciduous forests. These warmer temperatures result from decreased albedo and feedbacks between the land surface and adjacent oceans. Prescribing a realistic distribution of palaeovegetation in model simulations produces the best agreement between simulated climate and the geologic record of palaeoclimatic indicators. Positive feedbacks between high-latitude forests, the atmosphere, and ocean contributed significantly to high-latitude warming during the latest Cretaceous, and imply that high-latitude forest vegetation was an important source of polar warmth during other warm periods of geologic history.

Upchurch, G. R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Scotese, C.

1998-01-01

433

Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin, California, to global warming  

SciTech Connect

The hydrologic sensitivities of four medium-sized mountainous catchments in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins to long-term global warming were analyzed. The hydrologic response of these catchments, all of which are dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, were simulated by the coupling of the snowmelt and the soil moisture accounting models of the U.S. National Weather Service River Forecast System. In all four catchments the global warming pattern, which was indexed to CO{sub 2} doubling scenarios simulated by three (global) general circulation models, produced a major seasonal shift in the snow accumulation pattern. Under the alternative climate scenarios more winter precipitation fell as rain instead of snow, and winter runoff increased while spring snowmelt runoff decreased. In addition, large increases in the annual flood maxima were simulated, primarily due to an increase in rain-on-snow events, with the time of occurrence of many large floods shifting from spring to winter.

Lettenmaier, D.P. (Univ. of Washington, Seattle (USA)); Gan, Thian Yew (Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok (Thailand))

1990-01-01

434

Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin, California, to global warming  

SciTech Connect

The hydrologic sensitivities of four medium-sized mountainous catchments in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins to long-term global warming were analyzed. The hydrologic response of these catchments, all of which are dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, were simulated by the coupling of the snowmelt and the soil moisture accounting models of the U.S. National Weather Service River Forecast System. In all four catchments the global warming pattern, which was indexed to CO2 doubling scenarios simulated by three (global) general circulation models, produced a major seasonal shift in the snow accumulation pattern. Under the alternative climate scenarios more winter precipitation fell as rain instead of snow, and winter runoff increased while spring snowmelt runoff decreased. In addition, large increases in the annual flood maxima were simulated, primarily due to an increase in rain-on-snow events, with the time of ocurrence of many large floods shifting from spring to winter.

Lettenmaier, D.P.; Gan, T.Y.

1990-01-01

435

Using Interactive Technology to Support Students' Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In this work, we examine middle school students' understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming. We designed and refined a technology-enhanced curriculum module called Global Warming: Virtual Earth. In the module activities, students conduct virtual experiments with a visualization of the greenhouse effect. They analyze data and draw conclusions about how individual variables effect changes in the Earth's temperature. They also carry out inquiry activities to make connections between scientific processes, the socio-scientific issues, and ideas presented in the media. Results show that participating in the unit increases students' understanding of the science. We discuss how students integrate their ideas about global climate change as a result of using virtual experiments that allow them to explore meaningful complexities of the climate system.

Varma, Keisha; Linn, Marcia C.

2012-08-01

436

Could a future "Grand Solar Minimum" like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A future Maunder Minimum type grand solar minimum, with total solar irradiance reduced by 0.25% over a 50 year period from 2020 to 2070, is imposed in a future climate change scenario experiment (RCP4.5) using, for the first time, a global coupled climate model that includes ozone chemistry and resolved stratospheric dynamics (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model). This model has been shown to simulate two amplifying mechanisms that produce regional signals of decadal climate variability comparable to observations, and thus is considered a credible tool to simulate the Sun's effects on Earth's climate. After the initial decrease of solar radiation in 2020, globally averaged surface air temperature cools relative to the reference simulation by up to several tenths of a degree Centigrade. By the end of the grand solar minimum in 2070, the warming nearly catches up to the reference simulation. Thus, a future grand solar minimum could slow down but not stop global warming.

Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Marsh, Daniel R.

2013-05-01

437

Polar Low genesis over the North Pacific under different global warming scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Following an earlier climatological study of North Pacific Polar Lows by employing dynamical downscaling of NCEP1 reanalysis in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the characteristics of Polar Low genesis over the North Pacific under different global warming scenarios are investigated. Simulations based on three scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios were conducted using a global climate model (ECHAM5) and used to examine systematic changes in the occurrence of Polar Lows over the twenty first century. The results show that with more greenhouse gas emissions, global air temperature would rise, and the frequency of Polar Lows would decrease. With sea ice melting, the distribution of Polar Low genesis shows a northward shift. In the scenarios with stronger warming there is a larger reduction in the number of Polar Lows.

Chen, Fei; von Storch, Hans; Zeng, Lili; Du, Yan

2014-03-01

438

Smile intensity and warm touch as thin slices of child and family affective style.  

PubMed

The authors investigate the claim that thin slices of expressive behavior serve as reliable indicators of affective style in children and their families. Using photographs, the authors assessed smile intensity and tactile contact in kindergartners and their families. Consistent with claims that smiling and touch communicate positive emotion, measures of children's smile intensity and warm family touch were correlated across classroom and family contexts. Consistent with studies of parent-child personality associations, parents' warm smiles and negative facial displays resembled those of their children. Finally, consistent with observed relations between adult personality and positive display, children's smiling behavior in the classroom correlated with parent ratings of children's Extraversion/Surgency. These results highlight the utility of thin slices of smiling and touch as indicators of child and family affective style. PMID:19653777

Oveis, Christopher; Gruber, June; Keltner, Dacher; Stamper, Juliet L; Boyce, W Thomas

2009-08-01

439

Consistent responses of East Asian summer mean rainfall to global warming in CMIP5 simulations  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

East Asia summer rainfall is of great social-economic importance. Based on observations, reanalysis and simulations of 16 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the responses of East Asia summer precipitation, as well as some relevant features, to global warming are investigated. The CMIP5 historical simulation reasonably reproduces the climatology of summer rainfall, the associated circulation, the moisture and its transportation, and the mid-troposphere horizontal advection of temperature as well. Under