Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hagos, Samson M.

2015-01-28

Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations show that the NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower atmosphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main developmentmore » region (50W–20E; 10N–20N) of Atlantic TC. By modulating multiple processes associated with the African monsoon, this study demonstrates that warm NAMED SST explains 8% of interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency. Thus NAME SST may provide useful predictability for Atlantic TC activity on seasonal-to-interannual time scale.« less

The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

2012-01-01

In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

Regionally heterogeneous paleoenvironmental responses in the West African and South American monsoon systems on glacial to millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; van Mooy, B.; Overpeck, J. T.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S.; Peck, J. A.; Scholz, C. A.; King, J. W.

2008-12-01

Although millennial-scale paleoenvironmental changes have been well characterized for high latitude sites, short-term climate variability in the tropics is less well understood. While the Intertropical Convergence Zone may act as an integrator of tropical climate changes, regional factors also play an important role in controlling the tropical response to climate forcing. Understanding these influences, and how they modulate the response to global climate forcing under different mean climate states is thus important for assessing how the tropics may respond to future climate change. Here, we examine new centennial-resolution records of paleoenvironmental change from isotopic and relative abundance data from molecular biomarkers in sediment cores from Lake Bosumtwi and Lake Titicaca. We assess the relative response of the West African and South American monsoon systems to millennial and suborbital-scale climate variability over the last ca. 30,000 years. While there is evidence for synchronous climate variability in the two systems, the dominant paleoenvironmental changes appear largely decoupled, highlighting the importance of regional climatology in controlling the response to climate forcing in tropical regions.

Coherent tropical-subtropical Holocene see-saw moisture patterns in the Eastern Hemisphere monsoon systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yongbo; Bekeschus, Benjamin; Handorf, Dörthe; Liu, Xingqi; Dallmeyer, Anne; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2017-08-01

The concept of a Global Monsoon (GM) has been proposed based on modern precipitation observations, but its application over a wide range of temporal scales is still under debate. Here, we present a synthesis of 268 continental paleo-moisture records collected from monsoonal systems in the Eastern Hemisphere, including the East Asian Monsoon (EAsM), the Indian Monsoon (IM), the East African Monsoon (EAfM), and the Australian Monsoon (AuM) covering the last 18,000 years. The overall pattern of late Glacial to Holocene moisture change is consistent with those inferred from ice cores and marine records. With respect to the last 10,000 years (10 ka), i.e. a period that has high spatial coverage, a Fuzzy c-Means clustering analysis of the moisture index records together with ;Xie-Beni; index reveals four clusters of our data set. The paleoclimatic meaning of each cluster is interpreted considering the temporal evolution and spatial distribution patterns. The major trend in the tropical AuM, EAfM, and IM regions is a gradual decrease in moisture conditions since the early Holocene. Moisture changes in the EAsM regions show maximum index values between 8 and 6 ka. However, records located in nearby subtropical areas, i.e. in regions not influenced by the intertropical convergence zone, show an opposite trend compared to the tropical monsoon regions (AuM, EAfM and IM), i.e. a gradual increase. Analyses of modern meteorological data reveal the same spatial patterns as in the paleoclimate records such that, in times of overall monsoon strengthening, lower precipitation rates are observed in the nearby subtropical areas. We explain this pattern as the effect of a strong monsoon circulation suppressing air uplift in nearby subtropical areas, and hence hindering precipitation. By analogy to the modern system, this would mean that during the early Holocene strong monsoon period, the intensified ascending airflows within the monsoon domains led to relatively weaker ascending or

Half-precessional climate forcing of Indian Ocean monsoon dynamics on the East African equator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verschuren, D.; Sinninghe Damste, J. S.; Moernaut, J.; Kristen, I.; Fagot, M.; Blaauw, M.; Haug, G. H.; Project Members, C.

2008-12-01

The EuroCLIMATE project CHALLACEA produced a detailed multi-proxy reconstruction of the climate history of equatorial East Africa, based on the sediment record of Lake Challa, a 4.2 km2, 92-m deep crater lake on the lower East slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Kenya/Tanzania). Relatively stable sedimentation dynamics over the past 25,000 years resulted in a unique combination of high temporal resolution, excellent radiometric (210Pb, 14C) age control, and confidence that recording parameters of the climatic proxy signals extracted from the sediment have remained constant through time. The equatorial (3 deg. S) location of our study site in East Africa, where seasonal migration of convective activity spans the widest latitude range worldwide, produced unique information on how varying rainfall contributions from the northeasterly and southeasterly Indian Ocean monsoons shaped regional climate history. The Challa proxy records for temperature (TEX86) and moisture balance (reflection-seismic stratigraphy and the BIT index of soil bacterial input) uniquely weave together tropical climate variability at orbital and shorter time scales. The temporal pattern of reconstructed moisture balance bears the clear signature of half- precessional insolation forcing of Indian Ocean monsoon dynamics, modified by northern-latitude influence on moisture-balance variation at millennial and century time scales. During peak glacial time (but not immediately before) and the Younger Dryas, NH ice sheet influences overrode local insolation influence on monsoon intensity. After the NH ice sheets had melted and a relatively stable interglacial temperature regime developed, precession-driven summer insolation became the dominant determinant of regional moisture balance, with anti-phased patterns of Holocene hydrological change in the northern and southern (sub)tropics, and a uniquely hybrid pattern on the East African equator. In the last 2-3000 years a series of multi-century droughts with links to

Strengthened African summer monsoon in the mid-Piacenzian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ran; Zhang, Zhongshi; Jiang, Dabang; Yan, Qing; Zhou, Xin; Cheng, Zhigang

2016-09-01

Using model results from the first phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) and four experiments with CAM4, the intensified African summer monsoon (ASM) in the mid-Piacenzian and corresponding mechanisms are analyzed. The results from PlioMIP show that the ASM intensified and summer precipitation increased in North Africa during the mid-Piacenzian, which can be explained by the increased net energy in the atmospheric column above North Africa. Further experiments with CAM4 indicated that the combined changes in the mid-Piacenzian of atmospheric CO2 concentration and SST, as well as the vegetation change, could have substantially increased the net energy in the atmospheric column over North Africa and further intensified the ASM. The experiments also demonstrated that topography change had a weak effect. Overall, the combined changes of atmospheric CO2 concentration and SST were the most important factor that brought about the intensified ASM in the mid-Piacenzian.

The middle Holocene climatic records from Arabia: Reassessing lacustrine environments, shift of ITCZ in Arabian Sea, and impacts of the southwest Indian and African monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzel, Yehouda; Kushnir, Yochanan; Quade, Jay

2015-06-01

A dramatic increase in regional summer rainfall amount has been proposed for the Arabian Peninsula during the middle Holocene (ca. 9-5 ka BP) based on lacustrine sediments, inferred lake levels, speleothems, and pollen. This rainfall increase is considered primarily the result of an intensified Indian summer monsoon as part of the insolation-driven, northward shift of the boreal summer position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to over the deserts of North Africa, Arabia, and northwest India. We examine the basis for the proposed drastic climate change in Arabia and the shifts in the summer monsoon rains, by reviewing paleohydrologic lacustrine records from Arabia. We evaluate and reinterpret individual lake-basin status regarding their lacustrine-like deposits, physiography, shorelines, fauna and flora, and conclude that these basins were not occupied by lakes, but by shallow marsh environments. Rainfall increase required to support such restricted wetlands is much smaller than needed to form and maintain highly evaporating lakes and we suggest that rainfall changes occurred primarily at the elevated edges of southwestern, southern, and southeastern Arabian Peninsula. These relatively small changes in rainfall amounts and local are also supported by pollen and speleothems from the region. The changes do not require a northward shift of the Northern Hemisphere summer ITCZ and intensification of the Indian monsoon rainfall. We propose that (a) latitudinal and slight inland expansion of the North African summer monsoon rains across the Red Sea, and (b) uplifted moist air of this monsoon to southwestern Arabia highlands, rather than rains associated with intensification of Indian summer monsoon, as proposed before, increased rains in that region; these African monsoon rains produced the modest paleo-wetlands in downstream hyperarid basins. Furthermore, we postulate that as in present-day, the ITCZ in the Indian Ocean remained at or near the equator all

Understanding the West African Monsoon from the analysis of diabatic heating distributions as simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, G. M.; Peyrillé, P.; Roehrig, R.; Rio, C.; Caian, M.; Bellon, G.; Codron, F.; Lafore, J.-P.; Poan, D. E.; Idelkadi, A.

2017-03-01

Vertical and horizontal distributions of diabatic heating in the West African monsoon (WAM) region as simulated by four model families are analyzed in order to assess the physical processes that affect the WAM circulation. For each model family, atmosphere-only runs of their CMIP5 configurations are compared with more recent configurations which are on the development path toward CMIP6. The various configurations of these models exhibit significant differences in their heating/moistening profiles, related to the different representation of physical processes such as boundary layer mixing, convection, large-scale condensation and radiative heating/cooling. There are also significant differences in the models' simulation of WAM rainfall patterns and circulations. The weaker the radiative cooling in the Saharan region, the larger the ascent in the rainband and the more intense the monsoon flow, while the latitude of the rainband is related to heating in the Gulf of Guinea region and on the northern side of the Saharan heat low. Overall, this work illustrates the difficulty experienced by current climate models in representing the characteristics of monsoon systems, but also that we can still use them to understand the interactions between local subgrid physical processes and the WAM circulation. Moreover, our conclusions regarding the relationship between errors in the large-scale circulation of the WAM and the structure of the heating by small-scale processes will motivate future studies and model development.

The monsoon system: Land-sea breeze or the ITCZ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadgil, Sulochana

2018-02-01

For well over 300 years, the monsoon has been considered to be a gigantic land-sea breeze driven by the land-ocean contrast in surface temperature. In this paper, this hypothesis and its implications for the variability of the monsoon are discussed and it is shown that the observations of monsoon variability do not support this popular theory of the monsoon. An alternative hypothesis (whose origins can be traced to Blanford's (1886) remarkably perceptive analysis) in which the basic system responsible for the Indian summer monsoon is considered to be the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or the equatorial trough, is then examined and shown to be consistent with the observations. The implications of considering the monsoon as a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the ITCZ for the variability of the Indian summer monsoon and for identification of the monsoonal regions of the world are briefly discussed.

Formation and maintenance of nocturnal low-level stratus over the southern West African monsoon region during AMMA 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Robert; Fink, Andreas; Knippertz, Peter

2013-04-01

of the stratus on energy and moisture budgets and on the West African monsoon system as a whole.

Impact of radiation frequency, precipitation radiative forcing, and radiation column aggregation on convection-permitting West African monsoon simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsui, Toshi; Zhang, Sara Q.; Lang, Stephen E.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Ichoku, Charles; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-03-01

In this study, the impact of different configurations of the Goddard radiation scheme on convection-permitting simulations (CPSs) of the West African monsoon (WAM) is investigated using the NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF). These CPSs had 3 km grid spacing to explicitly simulate the evolution of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their interaction with radiative processes across the WAM domain and were able to reproduce realistic precipitation and energy budget fields when compared with satellite data, although low clouds were overestimated. Sensitivity experiments reveal that (1) lowering the radiation update frequency (i.e., longer radiation update time) increases precipitation and cloudiness over the WAM region by enhancing the monsoon circulation, (2) deactivation of precipitation radiative forcing suppresses cloudiness over the WAM region, and (3) aggregating radiation columns reduces low clouds over ocean and tropical West Africa. The changes in radiation configuration immediately modulate the radiative heating and low clouds over ocean. On the 2nd day of the simulations, patterns of latitudinal air temperature profiles were already similar to the patterns of monthly composites for all radiation sensitivity experiments. Low cloud maintenance within the WAM system is tightly connected with radiation processes; thus, proper coupling between microphysics and radiation processes must be established for each modeling framework.

The aerosol-monsoon climate system of Asia: A new paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William K. M.

2016-02-01

This commentary is based on a series of recent lectures on aerosol-monsoon interactions I gave at the Beijing Normal University in August 2015. A main theme of the lectures is on a new paradigm of "An Aerosol-Monsoon-Climate-System", which posits that aerosol, like rainfall, cloud, and wind, is an integral component of the monsoon climate system, influencing monsoon weather and climate on all timescales. Here, salient issues discussed in my lectures and my personal perspective regarding interactions between atmospheric dynamics and aerosols from both natural and anthropogenic sources are summarized. My hope is that under this new paradigm, we can break down traditional disciplinary barriers, advance a deeper understanding of weather and climate in monsoon regions, as well as entrain a new generation of geoscientists to strive for a sustainable future for one of the most complex and challenging human-natural climate sub-system of the earth.

West African monsoon dynamics inferred from abrupt fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad

PubMed Central

Armitage, Simon J.; Bristow, Charlie S.; Drake, Nick A.

2015-01-01

From the deglacial period to the mid-Holocene, North Africa was characterized by much wetter conditions than today. The broad timing of this period, termed the African Humid Period, is well known. However, the rapidity of the onset and termination of the African Humid Period are contested, with strong evidence for both abrupt and gradual change. We use optically stimulated luminescence dating of dunes, shorelines, and fluviolacustrine deposits to reconstruct the fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad, which was the largest pluvial lake in Africa. Humid conditions first occur at ∼15 ka, and by 11.5 ka, Lake Mega-Chad had reached a highstand, which persisted until 5.0 ka. Lake levels fell rapidly at ∼5 ka, indicating abrupt aridification across the entire Lake Mega-Chad Basin. This record provides strong terrestrial evidence that the African Humid Period ended abruptly, supporting the hypothesis that the African monsoon responds to insolation forcing in a markedly nonlinear manner. In addition, Lake Mega-Chad exerts strong control on global biogeochemical cycles because the northern (Bodélé) basin is currently the world’s greatest single dust source and possibly an important source of limiting nutrients for both the Amazon Basin and equatorial Atlantic. However, we demonstrate that the final desiccation of the Bodélé Basin occurred around 1 ka. Consequently, the present-day mode and scale of dust production from the Bodélé Basin cannot have occurred before 1 ka, suggesting that its role in fertilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems is either overstated or geologically recent. PMID:26124133

Towards a Better Understanding of Biomas Burning and Large Scale Climate Dynamics on the West African Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajoku, O.; Norris, J. R.; Miller, A. J.

2017-12-01

Seasonal biomass burning and resulting black carbon (BC) emissions have been well documented to effect regional weather patterns, especially including low level convection. These effects can be due to the hydrophilic and radiative qualities of the aerosols emitted from such burning. This project focuses on utilizing observation and reanalysis data in order to understand the effects of BC advected from the Southern hemisphere impact the dynamics of the West African Monsoon. Our results show that, of all monsoon months, BC advection has a direct impact on precipitation in July. Early analysis indicates that biomass burning occuring near Angola/Congo advects over the Gulf of Guinea, towards the Intertropical Convergence Zone at around 850mb and stabalizes the atmosphere. For a broader impact, this region is home to more than 200 million people and thus understanding these climate patterns may carry great importance.

Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Chang, Y.; Schubert, S.

1999-01-01

While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments.

Automated software configuration in the MONSOON system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, Philip N.; Buchholz, Nick C.; Moore, Peter C.

2004-09-01

MONSOON is the next generation OUV-IR controller project being developed at NOAO. The design is flexible, emphasizing code re-use, maintainability and scalability as key factors. The software needs to support widely divergent detector systems ranging from multi-chip mosaics (for LSST, QUOTA, ODI and NEWFIRM) down to large single or multi-detector laboratory development systems. In order for this flexibility to be effective and safe, the software must be able to configure itself to the requirements of the attached detector system at startup. The basic building block of all MONSOON systems is the PAN-DHE pair which make up a single data acquisition node. In this paper we discuss the software solutions used in the automatic PAN configuration system.

On the Origin of Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

It is a long-held fundamental belief that the basic cause of a monsoon is land-sea thermal contrast on the continental scale. Through general circulation model experiments we demonstrate that this belief should be changed. The Asian and Australian summer monsoon circulations are largely intact in an experiment in which Asia, maritime continent, and Australia are replaced by ocean. It is also shown that the change resulting from such replacement is in general due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. Therefore, land-sea contrast plays only a minor modifying role in Asian and Australian summer monsoons. This also happens to the Central American summer monsoon. However, the same thing cannot be said of the African and South American summer monsoons. In Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a minor role. Our interpretation for the origin of monsoon is that the summer monsoon is the result of ITCZ's (intertropical convergence zones) peak being substantially (more than 10 degrees) away from the equator. The origin of the ITCZ has been previously interpreted by Chao. The circulation around thus located ITCZ, previously interpreted by Chao and Chen through the modified Gill solution and briefly described in this paper, explains the monsoon circulation. The longitudinal location of the ITCZs is determined by the distribution of surface conditions. ITCZ's favor locations of higher SST as in western Pacific and Indian Ocean, or tropical landmass, due to land-sea contrast, as in tropical Africa and South America. Thus, the role of landmass in the origin of monsoon can be replaced by ocean of sufficiently high SST. Furthermore, the ITCZ circulation extends into the tropics in the other hemisphere to give rise to the winter monsoon circulation there. Also through the equivalence of land-sea contrast and higher SST, it is argued that the basic monsoon onset mechanism proposed by Chao is valid for all monsoons.

Simulation of the West African monsoon onset using the HadGEM3-RA regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diallo, Ismaïla; Bain, Caroline L.; Gaye, Amadou T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Niang, Coumba; Dieng, Mame D. B.; Graham, Richard

2014-08-01

The performance of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) in simulating the West African monsoon (WAM) is investigated. We focus on performance for monsoon onset timing and for rainfall totals over the June-July-August (JJA) season and on the model's representation of the underlying dynamical processes. Experiments are driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and follow the CORDEX experimental protocol. Simulations with the HadGEM3 global model, which shares a common physical formulation with HadGEM3-RA, are used to gain insight into the causes of HadGEM3-RA simulation errors. It is found that HadGEM3-RA simulations of monsoon onset timing are realistic, with an error in mean onset date of two pentads. However, the model has a dry bias over the Sahel during JJA of 15-20 %. Analysis suggests that this is related to errors in the positioning of the Saharan heat low, which is too far south in HadGEM3-RA and associated with an insufficient northward reach of the south-westerly low-level monsoon flow and weaker moisture convergence over the Sahel. Despite these biases HadGEM3-RA's representation of the general rainfall distribution during the WAM appears superior to that of ERA-Interim when using Global Precipitation Climatology Project or Tropical Rain Measurement Mission data as reference. This suggests that the associated dynamical features seen in HadGEM3-RA can complement the physical picture available from ERA-Interim. This approach is supported by the fact that the global HadGEM3 model generates realistic simulations of the WAM without the benefit of pseudo-observational forcing at the lateral boundaries; suggesting that the physical formulation shared with HadGEM3-RA, is able to represent the driving processes. HadGEM3-RA simulations confirm previous findings that the main rainfall peak near 10°N during June-August is maintained by a region of mid-tropospheric ascent located, latitudinally, between the cores of

Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall extremes in monsoonal climates - examples from the South American Monsoon and the Indian Monsoon Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bookhagen, B.; Boers, N.; Marwan, N.; Malik, N.; Kurths, J.

2013-12-01

Monsoonal rainfall is the crucial component for more than half of the world's population. Runoff associated with monsoon systems provide water resources for agriculture, hydropower, drinking-water generation, recreation, and social well-being and are thus a fundamental part of human society. However, monsoon systems are highly stochastic and show large variability on various timescales. Here, we use various rainfall datasets to characterize spatiotemporal rainfall patterns using traditional as well as new approaches emphasizing nonlinear spatial correlations from a complex networks perspective. Our analyses focus on the South American (SAMS) and Indian (ISM) Monsoon Systems on the basis of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) using precipitation radar and passive-microwave products with horizontal spatial resolutions of ~5x5 km^2 (products 2A25, 2B31) and 25x25 km^2 (3B42) and interpolated rainfall-gauge data for the ISM (APHRODITE, 25x25 km^2). The eastern slopes of the Andes of South America and the southern front of the Himalaya are characterized by significant orographic barriers that intersect with the moisture-bearing, monsoonal wind systems. We demonstrate that topography exerts a first-order control on peak rainfall amounts on annual timescales in both mountain belts. Flooding in the downstream regions is dominantly caused by heavy rainfall storms that propagate deep into the mountain range and reach regions that are arid and without vegetation cover promoting rapid runoff. These storms exert a significantly different spatial distribution than average-rainfall conditions and assessing their recurrence intervals and prediction is key in understanding flooding for these regions. An analysis of extreme-value distributions of our high-spatial resolution data reveal that semi-arid areas are characterized by low-frequency/high-magnitude events (i.e., are characterized by a ';heavy tail' distribution), whereas regions with high mean annual rainfall have a

Climatology and dynamics of nocturnal low-level stratus over the southern West African monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, A. H.; Schuster, R.; Knippertz, P.; van der Linden, R.

2013-12-01

the windward side of orography, and radiative cooling on one hand, and 'stratolytic' dry advection and latent heating on the other hand. Future work will focus on the influence of the stratus on the energy and moisture budget and on the West African monsoon system as a whole. Schematic illustration of the cloud formation process for (a) conditions close to the coast and (b) farther inland. Abbreviations are ADV: advection, E: latent heat flux, H: sensible heat flux, EV: evaporation, and NLLJ: nighttime low-level jet. Typical values for the contribution from each process are given. The effect of lifting was estimated by the difference in height and the assumption of a vertical temperature gradient of 0.65K/100 m (Fig. 12 in Schuster et al. 2013, J. Atmos. Sci, 70 (8), 2337-2355.

Niger River Discharge and the Connection to the West African Monsoon Over the Last 25 kyr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patten, J.; Marcantonio, F.; Slowey, N. C.; Schmidt, M. W.; Parker, A. O.; Thomas, D. J.

2016-12-01

The intensity of the West African monsoon is directly tied to the shifting of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and global-scale climate variability. As the West African monsoon varies through time, it affects the precipitation that occurs within the Niger River basin and the Niger River's discharge into the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean. The accumulation of marine sediments on the continental slope offshore of the Niger Delta reflects these processes. We seek to better understand how related environmental processes have varied as climate and sea level changed during the latter part of the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Here we present results from our ongoing investigation of sediments collected offshore of the Niger Delta that reflect such changes. The concentrations of 230Th, 232Th, and 234U in the sediments have been measured and combined with ages from radiocarbon dates and planktonic foraminiferal δ18O stratigraphies to estimate how the rate of sediment accumulation has varied through time. This record is considered together with measurements of sediment CaCO3 content and grain-size distribution to better understand the relative importance of environmental processes that control the flux of sediments and thorium to the seafloor - scavenging by particles settling through the water column versus the transport of sediments downslope by turbidity flows. We present xs230Th-derived 232Th fluxes that we suggest approximate the amount of fine-grained detrital material delivered from the Niger River to our sites. We anticipate that the importance of these competing processes will vary as climate/sea-level change influences the flux of sediments from the Niger River and the transport of these sediments to the slope.

West African Monsoon Decadal Variability and Surface-Related Forcings: Second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando; Lau, William K-M; Boone, Aaron; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Wang, Guiling; Kucharski, Fred; Schiro, Kathleen; Hosaka, Masahiro;

Response of the Surface Circulation of the Arabian Sea to Monsoonal Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beal, L. M.; Hormann, V.; Lumpkin, R.; Foltz, G. R.

2014-12-01

We use two decades of drifter and satellite data to examine the monthly evolution of the surface circulation of the Arabian Sea, which reverses annually in response to the Indian monsoon winds. Most significantly, we find that in the transition from winter to summer circulations, northward flow appears along the length of the western boundary as early as March or April, one or two months before the onset of the southwest monsoon winds. This reversal is initiated by annual Rossby waves, which in turn are initiated by wind curl forcing during the previous southwest monsoon. These results lead us to speculate that there is an oceanic mechanism through which one monsoon may precondition the next. Previous studies of monsoon circulations with lower temporal resolution have highlighted basin-wide currents and connections that are not found to exist in the monthly fields. In particular, we find that the Northeast Monsoon Current does not reach the western boundary and there is no counter-rotating gyre system during boreal winter. South of the equator, the eastward-flowing South Equatorial Counter Current (SECC) is present year-round, even though equatorial winds are strongly influenced by the monsoons. Semi-annual variability of the SECC is governed by Ekman pumping over the south equatorial gyre (or Seychelles dome) and, surprisingly, it is weakest during the northeast monsoon. This region has important influence on the atmosphere and its link to the monsoons deserves further investigation. The East African Coastal Current feeds into the SECC from the boundary. During the southwest monsoon it overshoots the equator and splits, feeding both northward into the Somali Current and eastward into the SECC after looping back across the equator. This apparent retroflection of the EACC is what was previously known as the southern gyre and is obscured at the surface by strong, locally wind-driven, cross-equatorial Ekman transport. Finally, there is broad, strong eastward flow at

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

2017-03-01

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

Indian Monsoon Depression: Climatology and Variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Huang, Wan-Ru

The monsoon climate is traditionally characterized by large seasonal rainfall and reversal of wind direction (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Most importantly this rainfall is the major source of fresh water to various human activities such as agriculture. The Indian subcontinent resides at the core of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon system, with the monsoon trough extended from northern India across Indochina to the Western Tropical Pacific (WTP). Large fraction of annual rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon season, i.e., June - August with two distinct maxima. One is located over the Bay of Bengal with rainfall extending northwestward into eastern andmore » central India, and the other along the west coast of India where the lower level moist wind meets the Western Ghat Mountains (Saha and Bavardeckar 1976). The rest of the Indian subcontinent receives relatively less rainfall. Various weather systems such as tropical cyclones and weak disturbances contribute to monsoon rainfall (Ramage 1971). Among these systems, the most efficient rain-producing system is known as the Indian monsoon depression (hereafter MD). This MD is critical for monsoon rainfall because: (i) it occurs about six times during each summer monsoon season, (ii) it propagates deeply into the continent and produces large amounts of rainfall along its track, and (iii) about half of the monsoon rainfall is contributed to by the MDs (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Therefore, understanding various properties of the MD is a key towards comprehending the veracity of the Indian summer monsoon and especially its hydrological process.« less

Harmattan, Saharan heat low, and West African monsoon circulation: modulations on the Saharan dust outflow towards the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepanski, Kerstin; Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina

2017-09-01

activated during the second half of the day, when downdrafts associated with deep moist convection are the major atmospheric driver. Complementary to the satellite-based analysis on dust source activations and implications from their diurnal cycle, simulations on atmosphere and dust life cycle were performed using the mesoscale atmosphere-dust model system COSMO-MUSCAT (COSMO: COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling; MUSCAT: MUltiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport Model). Fields from this simulation were analysed regarding the variability of the harmattan, the Saharan heat low, and the monsoon circulation as well as their impact on the variability of the Saharan dust outflow towards the North Atlantic. This study illustrates the complexity of the interaction among the three major circulation regimes and their modulation of the North African dust outflow. Enhanced westward dust fluxes frequently appear following a phase characterized by a deep SHL. Ultimately, findings from this study contribute to the quantification of the interannual variability of the atmospheric dust burden.

The Contribution of CEOP Data to the Understanding and Modeling of Monsoon Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2005-01-01

CEOP has contributed and will continue to provide integrated data sets from diverse platforms for better understanding of the water and energy cycles, and for validaintg models. In this talk, I will show examples of how CEOP has contributed to the formulation of a strategy for the study of the monsoon as a system. The CEOP data concept has led to the development of the CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS), which focuses on the identification of model bias, and improvement of model physics such as the diurnal and annual cycles. A multi-model validation project focusing on diurnal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and using CEOP reference site data, as well as CEOP integrated satellite data is now ongoing. Preliminary studies show that climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal signals of total rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of occurrence, which have different peak hours, depending on locations. Further more model diurnal cycle of rainfall in monsoon regions tend to lead the observed by about 2-3 hours. These model bias offer insight into lack of, or poor representation of, key components of the convective and stratiform rainfall. The CEOP data also stimulated studies to compare and contrasts monsoon variability in different parts of the world. It was found that seasonal wind reversal, orographic effects, monsoon depressions, meso-scale convective complexes, SST and land surface land influences are common features in all monsoon regions. Strong intraseasonal variability is present in all monsoon regions. While there is a clear demarcation of onset, breaks and withdrawal in the Asian and Australian monsoon region associated with climatological intraseasonal variabillity, it is less clear in the American and Africa monsoon regions. The examination of satellite and reference site data in monsoon has led to preliminary model experiments to study the impact of aerosol on monsoon variability. I will show examples of how the study of the

The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in

The contribution of CEOP data to the understanding and modeling of monsoon systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2005-01-01

CEOP has contributed and will continue to provide integrated data sets from diverse platforms for better understanding of the water and energy cycles, and for validating models. In this talk, I will show examples of how CEOP has contributed to the formulation of a strategy for the study of the monsoon as a system. The CEOP data concept has led to the development of the CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS), which focuses on the identification of model bias, and improvement of model physics such as the diurnal and annual cycles. A multi-model validation project focusing on diurnal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and using CEOP reference site data, as well as CEOP integrated satellite data is now ongoing. Similar validation projects in other monsoon regions are being started. Preliminary studies show that climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal signals of total rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of occurrence, which have different peak hours, depending on locations. Further more model diurnal cycle of rainfall in monsoon regions tend to lead the observed by about 2-3 hours. These model bias offer insight into lack of, or poor representation of key components of the convective,and stratiform rainfall. The CEOP data also stimulated studies to compare and contrasts monsoon variability in different parts of the world. It was found that seasonal wind reversal, orographic effects, monsoon depressions, meso-scale convective complexes, SST and land surface land influences are common features in all monsoon regions. Strong intraseasonal variability is present in all monsoon regions. While there is a clear demarcation of onset, breaks and withdrawal in the Asian and Australian monsoon region associated with climatological intraseasonal variability, it is less clear in the American and Africa monsoon regions. The examination of satellite and reference site data in monsoon has led to preliminary model experiments to study the impact of aerosol on

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangwen; Yang, Song; Li, Qiaoping; Kumar, Arun; Weaver, Scott; Liu, Shi

2014-03-01

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the

Dead Sea drawdown and monsoonal impacts in the Levant during the last interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torfstein, Adi; Goldstein, Steven L.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Enzel, Yehouda; Haug, Gerald; Stein, Mordechai

2015-02-01

Sediment cores recovered by the Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP) from the deepest basin of the hypersaline, terminal Dead Sea (lake floor at ∼725 m below mean sea level) reveal the detailed climate history of the lake's watershed during the last interglacial period (Marine Isotope Stage 5; MIS5). The results document both a more intense aridity during MIS5 than during the Holocene, and the moderating impacts derived from the intense MIS5e African Monsoon. Early MIS5e (∼133-128 ka) was dominated by hyperarid conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean-Levant, indicated by thick halite deposition triggered by a lake-level drop. Halite deposition was interrupted however, during the MIS5e peak (∼128-122 ka) by sequences of flood deposits, which are coeval with the timing of the intense precession-forced African monsoon that generated Mediterranean sapropel S5. A subsequent weakening of this humidity source triggered extreme aridity in the Dead Sea watershed and resulting in the biggest known lake level drawdown in its history, reflected by the deposition of thick salt layers, and a capping pebble layer corresponding to a hiatus at ∼116-110 ka. The DSDDP core provides the first evidence for a direct association of the African monsoon with mid subtropical latitude climate systems effecting the Dead Sea watershed. Combined with coeval deposition of Arabia and southern Negev speleothems, Arava travertines, and calcification of Red Sea corals, the evidence points to a climatically wet corridor that could have facilitated homo sapiens migration "out of Africa" during the MIS5e peak. The hyperaridity documented during MIS5e may provide an important analogue for future warming of arid regions of the Eastern Mediterranean-Levant.

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2008-01-01

Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

A hemispheric climatology of monsoon depressions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurley, J. V.; Boos, W.

2012-12-01

Monsoon depressions are large (1000-2000 km diameter) cyclonic low pressure systems having organized deep convection, best known for forming in the Bay of Bengal and migrating northwest over northern India in the monsoon trough. About 3 to 5 of these systems occur during each monsoon season, contributing about half of the Indian summer rainfall. Despite their importance as a precipitation source, their dynamics are poorly constrained. Furthermore, although they do occur elsewhere, such as around Australia and in the southern Indian Ocean, there does not exist a collective inventory of these systems outside of the Bay of Bengal region. Here we present a climatology of monsoon depressions produced from the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. Feature tracks are identified using an automated tracking algorithm (K. Hodges' TRACK code) applied to the 850 hPa relative vorticity field for local summer, 1989 to 2003. Using criteria based on relative vorticity and sea level pressure, cyclonic low pressure systems are separated into different intensity categories, one of which corresponds to the definition for monsoon depressions used by the India Meteorological Department. The resultant distribution of storms obtained for the Bay of Bengal region compares well with a previously compiled climatology of monsoon depressions that was limited to the region surrounding India. Having validated our ability to identify monsoon depressions in their classic genesis region near India, we then extend the methods to include the western Pacific, Australia, and the southern Indian Ocean. Track distributions and composite structures of monsoon depressions for these different regions will be presented.

Summer monsoon response of the Northern Somali Current, 1995

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schott, Friedrich; Fischer, Jürgen; Garternicht, Ulf; Quadfasel, Detlef

Preliminary results on the development of the northern Somali Current regime and Great Whirl during the summer monsoon of 1995 are reported. They are based on the water mass and current profiling observations from three shipboard surveys of R/V Meteor and on the time series from a moored current-meter and ADCP array. The monsoon response of the GW was deep-reaching, to more than 1000m. involving large deep transports. The northern Somali Current was found to be disconnected from the interior Arabian Sea in latitude range 4°N-12°N in both, water mass properties and current fields. Instead, communication dominantly occurs through the passages between Socotra and the African continent. From moored stations in the main passage a northward throughflow from the Somali Current to the Gulf of Aden of about 5 Sv was determined for the summer monsoon of 1995.

Contrasting impacts of local and non-local anthropogenic aerosols detected on 20th century monsoon precipitation over West Africa and South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegerl, G. C.; Polson, D.; Bollasina, M. A.; Ming, Y.

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic aerosols are a key driver 4 of historical changes in Summer monsoon precipition in the Northern Hemisphere. Detection and attribution studies have shown that the reduction in Northern Hemisphere precipitation over the second half of the 20th century is driven by anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Here we apply these same methods to investigate changes in the West African and South Asian monsoons and identify the source regions of the anthropogenic aerosols that drive the observed changes. Historical climate model simulations are used to derive fingerprints of aerosol forcing for different regions of the globe. Comparing model changes with observations show that the changes in West African monsoon preciptiation are driven by remote aerosol emissions from North America and Europe, while changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation are driven by local aerosol emissions.

Characterization of the impact of land degradation in the Sahel on the West African monsoon using an ensemble of climate models from the WAMME project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boone, A. A.; Xue, Y.; Ruth, C.; De Sales, F.; Hagos, S.; Mahanama, S. P. P.; Schiro, K.; Song, G.; Wang, G.; Koster, R. D.; Mechoso, C. R.

2014-12-01

There is increasing evidence from numerical studies that anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) can potentially induce significant variations on the regional scale climate. However, the magnitude of these variations likely depends on the local strength of the coupling between the surface and the atmosphere, the magnitude of the surface biophysical changes and how the key processes linking the surface with the atmosphere are parameterized within a particular model framework. One key hot-spot which has received considerable attention is the Sahelian region of West Africa, for which numerous studies have reported a significant increase in anthropogenic pressure on the already limited natural resources in this region, notably in terms of land use conversion and degradation. Thus, there is a pressing need to better understand the impacts of potential land degradation on the West African Monsoon (WAM) system. One of the main goals of the West African Monsoon Modeling andEvaluation project phase 2 (WAMMEII) is to provide basic understandingof LULCC on the regional climate over West Africa, and to evaluate thesensitivity of the seasonal variability of the WAM to LULCC. Theprescribed LULCC is based on recent 50 year period which represents amaximum feasible degradation scenario. In the current study, the LULCCis applied to five state of the art global climate models over afive-year period. The imposed LULCC results in a model-average 5-7%increase in surface albedo: the corresponding lower surface netradiation mainly results in a significant reduction in surfaceevaporation (upwards of 1 mm per day over a large part of the Sahel)which leads to less convective heating of the atmosphere, lowermoisture convergence, increased subsidence and reduced cloud coverover the LULCC zone. The overall impact can be characterized as asubstantial drought effect resulting in a reduction in annual rainfallof 20-40% in the Sahel and a southward shift of the monsoon. In

Characterizing diurnal and seasonal cycles in monsoon systems from TRMM and CEOP observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2006-01-01

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2deg x 2.5deg latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Characterizing Diurnal and Seasonal Cycles in Monsoon Systems from TRMM and CEOP Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2007-01-01

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2 deg x 2.5 deg. latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Seasonal Evolution and Variability Associated with the West African Monsoon System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

2003-01-01

In this study, we investigate the seasonal variations in surface rainfall and associated large-scale processes in the tropical eastern Atlantic and West African region. The 5-yr (1998-2002) high-quality TRMM rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), water vapor and cloud liquid water observations are applied along with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind components and a 3-yr (2000-2002) Quickscat satellite-observed surface wind product. Major mean rainfall over West Africa tends to be concentrated in two regions and is observed in two different seasons, manifesting an abrupt shift of the mean rainfall zone during June-July. (i) Near the Gulf of Guinea (about 5 degN), intense convection and rainfall are seen during April-June and roughly follow the seasonality of SST in the tropical eastern Atlantic. (ii) Along the latitudes of about 10 deg. N over the interior West African continent, a second intense rain belt begins to develop from July and remains there during the later summer season. This belt co-exists with a northwardmoved African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and its accompanying horizonal and vertical shear zones, the appearance and intensification of an upper tropospheric Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), and a strong low-level westerly flow. Westward-propagating wave signals [ i e . , African easterly waves (AEWs)] dominate the synoptic-scale variability during July-September, in contrast to the evident eastward-propagating wave signals during May- June. The abrupt shift of mean rainfall zone thus turns out to be a combination of two different physical processes: (i) Evident seasonal cycles in the tropical eastern Atlantic ocean which modulate convection and rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea by means of SST thermal forcing and SST-related meridional gradient; (ii) The interaction among the AEJ, TEJ, low-level westerly flow, moist convection and AEWs during July-September which modulates rainfall variability in the interior West Africa, primarily within the ITCZ rain band. Evident

Multi-Satellite Synergy for Aerosol Analysis in the Asian Monsoon Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ichoku, Charles; Petrenko, Maksym

2012-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols represent one of the greatest uncertainties in environmental and climate research, particularly in tropical monsoon regions such as the Southeast Asian regions, where significant contributions from a variety of aerosol sources and types is complicated by unstable atmospheric dynamics. Although aerosols are now routinely retrieved from multiple satellite Sensors, in trying to answer important science questions about aerosol distribution, properties, and impacts, researchers often rely on retrievals from only one or two sensors, thereby running the risk of incurring biases due to sensor/algorithm peculiarities. We are conducting detailed studies of aerosol retrieval uncertainties from various satellite sensors (including Terra-/ Aqua-MODIS, Terra-MISR, Aura-OMI, Parasol-POLDER, SeaWiFS, and Calipso-CALIOP), based on the collocation of these data products over AERONET and other important ground stations, within the online Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS) framework that was developed recently. Such analyses are aimed at developing a synthesis of results that can be utilized in building reliable unified aerosol information and climate data records from multiple satellite measurements. In this presentation, we will show preliminary results of. an integrated comparative uncertainly analysis of aerosol products from multiple satellite sensors, particularly focused on the Asian Monsoon region, along with some comparisons from the African Monsoon region.

Climate response of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

2012-07-13

The equilibrium climate response to the total effects (direct, indirect and semi-direct effects) of aerosols arising from anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions on the South Asian summer monsoon system is studied using a coupled atmosphere-slab ocean model. Our results suggest that anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols generally induce a reduction in mean summer monsoon precipitation over most parts of the Indian subcontinent, strongest along the western coastline of the Indian peninsula and eastern Nepal region, but modest increases also occur over the north western part of the subcontinent. While most of the noted reduction in precipitation is triggered by increasedmore » emissions of aerosols from anthropogenic activities, modest increases in the north west are mostly associated with decreases in local emissions of aerosols from forest fire and grass fire sources. Anthropogenic aerosols from outside Asia also contribute to the overall reduction in precipitation but the dominant contribution comes from aerosol sources within Asia. Local emissions play a more important role in the total rainfall response to anthropogenic aerosol sources during the early monsoon period, whereas both local as well as remote emissions of aerosols play almost equally important roles during the later part of the monsoon period. While precipitation responses are primarily driven by local aerosol forcing, regional surface temperature changes over the region are strongly influenced by anthropogenic aerosols from sources further away (non-local changes). Changes in local anthropogenic organic and black carbon emissions by as much as a factor of two (preserving their ratio) produce the same basic signatures in the model's summer monsoon temperature and precipitation responses.« less

An overview of the diurnal cycle of the atmospheric boundary layer during the West African monsoon season: results from the 2016 observational campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalthoff, Norbert; Lohou, Fabienne; Brooks, Barbara; Jegede, Gbenga; Adler, Bianca; Babić, Karmen; Dione, Cheikh; Ajao, Adewale; Amekudzi, Leonard K.; Aryee, Jeffrey N. A.; Ayoola, Muritala; Bessardon, Geoffrey; Danuor, Sylvester K.; Handwerker, Jan; Kohler, Martin; Lothon, Marie; Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Xabier; Smith, Victoria; Sunmonu, Lukman; Wieser, Andreas; Fink, Andreas H.; Knippertz, Peter

2018-03-01

A ground-based field campaign was conducted in southern West Africa from mid-June to the end of July 2016 within the framework of the Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa (DACCIWA) project. It aimed to provide a high-quality comprehensive data set for process studies, in particular of interactions between low-level clouds (LLCs) and boundary-layer conditions. In this region missing observations are still a major issue. During the campaign, extensive remote sensing and in situ measurements were conducted at three supersites: Kumasi (Ghana), Savè (Benin) and Ile-Ife (Nigeria). Daily radiosoundings were performed at 06:00 UTC, and 15 intensive observation periods (IOPs) were performed during which additional radiosondes were launched, and remotely piloted aerial systems were operated. Extended stratiform LLCs form frequently in southern West Africa during the nighttime and persist long into the following day. They affect the radiation budget and hence the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer and regional climate. The relevant parameters and processes governing the formation and dissolution of the LLCs are still not fully understood. This paper gives an overview of the diurnal cycles of the energy-balance components, near-surface temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction as well as of the conditions (LLCs, low-level jet) in the boundary layer at the supersites and relates them to synoptic-scale conditions (monsoon layer, harmattan layer, African easterly jet, tropospheric stratification) in the DACCIWA operational area. The characteristics of LLCs vary considerably from day to day, including a few almost cloud-free nights. During cloudy nights we found large differences in the LLCs' formation and dissolution times as well as in the cloud-base height. The differences exist at individual sites and also between the sites. The synoptic conditions are characterized by a monsoon layer with south-westerly winds, on average about 1.9 km

Perceptible changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in relation to Indian Monsoon Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naidu, C. V.; Dharma Raju, A.; Vinay Kumar, P.; Satyanarayana, G. Ch.

2017-10-01

The changes in the summer monsoon rainfall over 30 meteorological subdivisions of India with respect to changes in circulation and the Indian Monsoon Index (IMI) have been studied for the period 1953-2012. The relationship between the IMIs in different months and whole season and the corresponding summer monsoon rainfall is studied and tested. The positive and negative extremes are evaluated basing on the normalized values of the deviations from the mean of the IMI. Composite rainfall distributions over India and the zonal wind distributions in the lower and upper troposphere of IMI's both positive and negative extremes are evaluated separately and discussed. In the recent three decades of global warming, the negative values of IMI in July and August lead to weakening of the monsoon system over India. It is observed that the rainfall variations in the Northeast India are different from the rest of India except Tamil Nadu in general.

Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, P. J.; Magaña, V. O.; Palmer, T. N.; Shukla, J.; Thomas, R. A.; Yanai, M.; Yasunari, T.

1998-06-01

The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program sought to determine the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) program seeks to explore predictability of the global climate system through investigation of the major planetary heat sources and sinks, and interactions between them. The Asian-Australian monsoon system, which undergoes aperiodic and high amplitude variations on intraseasonal, annual, biennial and interannual timescales is a major focus of GOALS. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the monsoon have been made with moderate success for over 100 years. More recent modeling efforts have not been successful. Even simulation of the mean structure of the Asian monsoon has proven elusive and the observed ENSO-monsoon relationships has been difficult to replicate. Divergence in simulation skill occurs between integrations by different models or between members of ensembles of the same model. This degree of spread is surprising given the relative success of empirical forecast techniques. Two possible explanations are presented: difficulty in modeling the monsoon regions and nonlinear error growth due to regional hydrodynamical instabilities. It is argued that the reconciliation of these explanations is imperative for prediction of the monsoon to be improved. To this end, a thorough description of observed monsoon variability and the physical processes that are thought to be important is presented. Prospects of improving prediction and some strategies that may help achieve improvement are discussed.

The Monsoon Erosion Pump and the Indian Monsoon since Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giosan, L.

2017-12-01

Lack of consensus on the Neogene establishment and evolution of the Indian Monsoon is remarkable after half a century of research. Conflicting interpretations point toward the possibility of periodic decoupling between monsoon winds and monsoon precipitation. Here I introduce the concept of a monsoon erosion pump based on terrestrial and oceanic records reconstructed from recent NGHP and IODP drilling and spanning the last 34 million years in the Bay of Bengal, Arabian and Andaman Seas. From millennial to orbital to tectonic timescales, these records suggest that vegetation land cover interacts and modulates the regime of erosion and weathering under perennial but variable monsoonal rain conditions. Under this new proposed paradigm the Indian monsoon exhibits two distinct flavours during the Neogene that can be largely explained by its heartbeat, or astronomical forcing, mediated by the global glacial state and interacting with the paleogeography of South Asia.

Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annamalai, H.

The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observationsmore » and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the

Transient coupling relationships of the Holocene Australian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McRobie, F. H.; Stemler, T.; Wyrwoll, K.-H.

2015-08-01

The northwest Australian summer monsoon owes a notable degree of its interannual variability to interactions with other regional monsoon systems. Therefore, changes in the nature of these relationships may contribute to variability in monsoon strength over longer time scales. Previous attempts to evaluate how proxy records from the Indonesian-Australian monsoon region correspond to other records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, as well as to El Niño-related proxy records, have been qualitative, relying on 'curve-fitting' methods. Here, we seek a quantitative approach for identifying coupling relationships between paleoclimate proxy records, employing statistical techniques to compute the interdependence of two paleoclimate time series. We verify the use of complex networks to identify coupling relationships between modern climate indices. This method is then extended to a set of paleoclimate proxy records from the Asian, Australasian and South American regions spanning the past 9000 years. The resulting networks demonstrate the existence of coupling relationships between regional monsoon systems on millennial time scales, but also highlight the transient nature of teleconnections during this period. In the context of the northwest Australian summer monsoon, we recognise a shift in coupling relationships from strong interhemispheric links with East Asian and ITCZ-related proxy records in the mid-Holocene to significantly weaker coupling in the later Holocene. Although the identified links cannot explain the underlying physical processes leading to coupling between regional monsoon systems, this method provides a step towards understanding the role that changes in teleconnections play in millennial-to orbital-scale climate variability.

Interdecadal variability of the Afro-Asian summer monsoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Ding, Yihui; Li, Weijing

2017-07-01

The Afro-Asian summer monsoon is a zonally planetary-scale system, with a large-scale rainbelt covering Africa, South Asia and East Asia on interdecadal timescales both in the past century (1901-2014) and during the last three decades (1979-2014). A recent abrupt change of precipitation occurred in the late 1990s. Since then, the entire rainbelt of the Afro-Asia monsoon system has advanced northwards in a coordinated way. Consistent increases in precipitation over the Huanghe-Huaihe River valley and the Sahel are associated with the teleconnection pattern excited by the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A teleconnection wave train, with alternating cyclones/anticyclones, is detected in the upper troposphere. Along the teleconnection path, the configuration of circulation anomalies in North Africa is characterized by coupling of the upper-level anticyclone (divergence) with low-level thermal low pressure (convergence), facilitating the initiation and development of ascending motions in the Sahel. Similarly, in East Asia, a coupled circulation pattern also excites ascending motion in the Huanghe-Huaihe River valley. The synchronous increase in precipitation over the Sahel and Huanghe-Huaihe River valley can be attributed to the co-occurrences and in-phase changes of ascending motion. On the other hand, the warm phase of the AMO results in significant warming in the upper troposphere in North Africa and the northern part of East Asia. Such warming contributes to intensification of the tropical easterly jet through increasing the meridional pressure gradient both at the entrance region (East Asia) and the exit region (Africa). Accordingly, precipitation over the Sahel and Huanghe-Huaihe River valley intensifies, owing to ageostrophic secondary cells. The results of this study provide evidence for a consistent and holistic interdecadal change in the Afro-Asian summer monsoon.

Deglacial Tropical Atlantic subsurface warming links ocean circulation variability to the West African Monsoon.

PubMed

Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Parker, Andrew O; Ji, Link; He, Feng

2017-11-13

Multiple lines of evidence show that cold stadials in the North Atlantic were accompanied by both reductions in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and collapses of the West African Monsoon (WAM). Although records of terrestrial change identify abrupt WAM variability across the deglaciation, few studies show how ocean temperatures evolved across the deglaciation. To identify the mechanism linking AMOC to the WAM, we generated a new record of subsurface temperature variability over the last 21 kyr based on Mg/Ca ratios in a sub-thermocline dwelling planktonic foraminifera in an Eastern Equatorial Atlantic (EEA) sediment core from the Niger Delta. Our subsurface temperature record shows abrupt subsurface warming during both the Younger Dryas (YD) and Heinrich Event 1. We also conducted a new transient coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulation across the YD that better resolves the western boundary current dynamics and find a strong negative correlation between AMOC strength and EEA subsurface temperatures caused by changes in ocean circulation and rainfall responses that are consistent with the observed WAM change. Our combined proxy and modeling results provide the first evidence that an oceanic teleconnection between AMOC strength and subsurface temperature in the EEA impacted the intensity of the WAM on millennial time scales.

Recent variations in geopotential height associated with West African monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okoro, Ugochukwu K.; Chen, Wen; Nath, Debashis

2018-02-01

In the present study, the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the seasonal West Africa (WA) monsoon (WAM) rainfall variability has been investigated. The observational rainfall data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis 2, from 1979 to 2014, have been used. The rainfall variability extremes, classified as wet or dry years, are the outcomes of simultaneous 6-month SPI at the three rainfall zones, which shows increasing trends [Guinea Coast (GC = 0.012 year-1), Eastern Sudano Sahel (ESS = 0.045 year-1) and Western Sudano Sahel (WSS = 0.056 year-1) from Sen's slope]; however, it is significant only in the Sahel region (α = 0.05 and α = 0.001 at ESS and WSS, respectively, from Mann-Kendall test). The vertical profile of the geopotential height (GpH) during the wet and dry years reveals that the 700 hPa anomalies show remarkable pattern at about 8°N to 13°N. This shows varying correlation with the zonal averaged vertically integrated moisture flux convergence and rainfall anomalies, respectively, as well as the oceanic pulsations indexes [Ocean Nino Index (ONI) and South Atlantic Ocean dipole index (SAODI), significant from t test], identified as precursors to the Sahel and GC rainfall variability respectively. The role of GpH anomalies at 700 hPa has been identified as the facilitator to the West African Westerly Jet's input to the moisture flux transported over the WA. This is a new perspective of the circulation processes associated with WAM and serves as a basis for modeling investigations.

Asian Monsoon Variability from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) and Links to Indo-Pacific Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Anchukaitis, Kevin; Hernandez, Manuel; Buckley, Brendan; Cook, Edward

2014-05-01

Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877-2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June-August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Variations in the strength of the South Asian monsoon can also be linked to the Strange Parallels Drought (1756-1768) affecting much of Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent in the mid-18th Century. Large-scale climate anomalies across the wider region during years with an anomalously strengthened/weakened South Asian monsoon are discussed with implications for severe droughts prior to the instrumental period. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the

Observed Oceanic and Terrestrial Drivers of North African Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Wang, F.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2015-12-01

Hydrologic variability can pose a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Yet, the current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts/pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models. In order to identify the observed drivers of North African climate and develop a benchmark for model evaluations, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied to observations, remotely sensed data, and reanalysis products. The identified primary oceanic drivers of North African rainfall variability are the Atlantic, tropical Indian, and tropical Pacific Oceans and Mediterranean Sea. During the summer monsoon, positive tropical eastern Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are associated with a southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, enhanced ocean evaporation, and greater precipitable water across coastal West Africa, leading to increased West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall and decreased Sahel rainfall. During the short rains, positive SST anomalies in the western tropical Indian Ocean and negative anomalies in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean support greater easterly oceanic flow, evaporation over the western ocean, and moisture advection to East Africa, thereby enhancing rainfall. The sign, magnitude, and timing of observed vegetation forcing on rainfall vary across North Africa. The positive feedback of leaf area index (LAI) on rainfall is greatest during DJF for the Horn of Africa, while it peaks in autumn and is weakest during the summer monsoon for the Sahel. Across the WAM region, a positive LAI anomaly supports an earlier monsoon onset, increased rainfall during the pre-monsoon, and decreased rainfall during the wet season. Through unique mechanisms, positive LAI anomalies favor enhanced transpiration, precipitable water, and rainfall across the Sahel and Horn of Africa, and increased roughness, ascent, and rainfall across the WAM region

North-African paleodrainage discharges to the central Mediterranean during the last 18,000 years: A multiproxy characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jiawang; Liu, Zhifei; Stuut, Jan-Berend W.; Zhao, Yulong; Schirone, Antonio; de Lange, Gert J.

2017-05-01

Using elemental geochemistry, clay mineralogy, grain size end-member modeling, and planktonic foraminiferal δ18O, we characterize the provenance of central-Mediterranean sediments over the past 18 ka. The provenance is dust-dominated before and after the African Humid Period (AHP). By contrast, during the AHP (∼11-5 ka), largely concurrent with organic-rich sapropel S1 formation, it is predominantly riverine from North-African sources. Such fluvial supply is suggested to come from paleodrainage networks that were reactivated by intensified monsoon precipitation during the AHP. The supply is characterized by high Mg/Al and smectite contents, and has been accompanied by considerable freshwater influx, as indicated by the enhanced grain size and lighter foraminiferal δ18O. The clay-mineral assemblages in our core and in nearby cores correspond with a provenance from the Libyan-Tunisian margin, mainly via the paleo-river Irharhar. The inferred fluvial discharge is strongest during the late-AHP (∼8-5.5 ka), coinciding with reported enhanced fluvial dynamics and wettest conditions over western Libya and Tunisia/Algeria. This period is not only synchronous with the largest extension of open-water bodies in North Africa and lowest Saharan dust inputs, but also consistent with precipitation records of the West-African monsoon. Moreover, our records show a remarkable correspondence with that of a paleodrainage system towards the Atlantic West-African margin, inferring a common headwater region in the central Saharan mountains, and a similar climate mechanism. Taken together, we suggest a dominant control of North-African humid surfaces on the paleodrainage delivery, modulated by groundwater level, in response to the insolation-driven West-African monsoon precipitation.

Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ronghui; Chen, Jilong; Wang, Lin; Lin, Zhongda

2012-09-01

Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects: the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.

Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhanqing; Lau, W. K.-M.; Ramanathan, V.; Wu, G.; Ding, Y.; Manoj, M. G.; Liu, J.; Qian, Y.; Li, J.; Zhou, T.; Fan, J.; Rosenfeld, D.; Ming, Y.; Wang, Y.; Huang, J.; Wang, B.; Xu, X.; Lee, S.-S.; Cribb, M.; Zhang, F.; Yang, X.; Zhao, C.; Takemura, T.; Wang, K.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zhang, H.; Guo, J.; Zhai, P. M.; Sugimoto, N.; Babu, S. S.; Brasseur, G. P.

2016-12-01

biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcing of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.

Link between Indian monsoon rainfall and physical erosion in the Himalayan system during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joussain, Ronan; Liu, Zhifei; Colin, Christophe; Duchamp-Alphonse, Stéphanie; Yu, Zhaojie; Moréno, Eva; Fournier, Léa.; Zaragosi, Sébastien; Dapoigny, Arnaud; Meynadier, Laure; Bassinot, Franck

2017-09-01

Mineralogical and geochemical analyses conducted on cores located on the active channel-levee system of the northern Bengal Fan are used to establish changes in the weathering pattern and the sediment transport of the Himalayan system, and evaluate the effect of Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the Holocene. Our data indicate that during the Holocene, sediments from the northern Bengal Fan originate mainly from the G-B river system without any significant changes in the relative contribution of these rivers. From 9.8 to around 6 ka, relatively low smectite/(illite+chlorite) ratios and relatively high K/Si* ratios indicate high physical denudation rates of the Himalayan highlands together with a rapid transfer of the detrital material to the Bengal Fan. The period between 9.2 and 7 ka is associated to lower values of K/Si* and corresponds to the maximum of Indian monsoon rainfall which indicates a more important chemical weathering material that rapidly transits by the G-B river system without a long storage in the Indo-Gangetic plain. From 6.0 ka to present day, higher smectite/(illite+chlorite) ratio and lower K/Si* ratio document a gradual increase of sediments originated from the Indo-Gangetic plain, characterized by higher degree of chemical weathering. During the last 2.5 ka, the drastic increase in the smectite/(illite+chlorite) ratio could be associated to enhanced alteration of the plain soils due to anthropogenic activity. The comparison of mineralogical and geochemical data with previous reconstructions of the Indian monsoon dynamic indicates a rapid response of erosion and sediment transfer of the G-B river system to changes of monsoon rainfall intensity.

Asian Eocene monsoons as revealed by leaf architectural signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spicer, Robert A.; Yang, Jian; Herman, Alexei B.; Kodrul, Tatiana; Maslova, Natalia; Spicer, Teresa E. V.; Aleksandrova, Galina; Jin, Jianhua

2016-09-01

The onset and development of the Asian monsoon systems is a topic that has attracted considerable research effort but proxy data limitations, coupled with a diversity of definitions and metrics characterizing monsoon phenomena, have generated much debate. Failure of geological proxies to yield metrics capable of distinguishing between rainfall seasonality induced by migrations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from that attributable to topographically modified seasonal pressure reversals has frustrated attempts to understand mechanisms underpinning monsoon development and dynamics. Here we circumvent the use of such single climate parameter metrics in favor of detecting directly the distinctive attributes of different monsoon regimes encoded in leaf fossils. Leaf form adapts to the prevailing climate, particularly under the extreme seasonal stresses imposed by monsoons, so it is likely that fossil leaves carry a unique signature of past monsoon regimes. Leaf form trait spectra obtained from fossils from Eocene basins in southern China were compared with those seen in modern leaves growing under known climate regimes. The fossil leaf trait spectra, including those derived from previously published fossil floras from northwestern India, were most similar to those found in vegetation exposed to the modern Indonesia-Australia Monsoon (I-AM), which is largely a product of seasonal migrations of the ITCZ. The presence of this distinctive leaf physiognomic signature suggests that although a monsoon climate existed in Eocene time across southern Asia the characteristics of the modern topographically-enhanced South Asia Monsoon had yet to develop. By the Eocene leaves in South Asia had become well adapted to an I-AM type regime across many taxa and points to the existence of a pervasive monsoon climate prior to the Eocene. No fossil trait spectra typical of exposure to the modern East Asia monsoon were seen, suggesting the effects of this system in southern

On the association between pre-monsoon aerosol and all-India summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, S. D.; Preethi, B.; Bansod, S. D.; Singh, H. N.; Revadekar, J. V.; Munot, A. A.

2013-09-01

Summer monsoon rainfall which gives 75-90% of the annual rainfall plays vital role in Indian economy as the food grain production in India is very much dependent on the summer monsoon rainfall. It has been suggested by recent studies that aerosol loading over the Indian region plays significant role in modulating the monsoon circulation and consequent rainfall distribution over the Indian sub-continent. Increased industrialization and the increasing deforestation over past few decades probably cause a gradual increase in the aerosol concentration. A significant negative relationship between pre-monsoon (March-May i.e. MAM) aerosol loading over BOB and IGP regions and the forthcoming monsoon rainfall have been observed from the thorough analysis of the fifteen years (1997-2011) monthly Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI) and All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) data. Composite analysis revealed that AI anomalies during pre-monsoon season are negative for excess year and positive for deficient monsoon years over the Indian subcontinent, with strong variation over Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) regions from the month of March onwards. The correlation coefficients between AISMR and pre-monsoon AI over BOB and IGP regions are found to be negative and significant at 5% level. The study clearly brings out that the pre-monsoon aerosol loading over the BOB and IGP regions has a significant correlational link with the forthcoming monsoon intensity; however a further study of the aerosol properties and their feedback to the cloud microphysical properties is asked for establishing their causal linkage.

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX): A Core Element for the Asian Monsoon Year (2008-2009)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, WIlliam K. M.

2007-01-01

Tropospheric Aerosol: an International Regional Experiment (East-AIRE), and Radiation Aerosol Joint Observations - Monsoon Experiments over the Gangetic Himalayas Area (Rajo-Megha: dust cloud in Sanskrit) from the US, and Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIR) under the Earth Systems Science Partnership (ESSP) and WCRP. For JAMEX to succeed, it is crucial for an international body, such as CEOP or an organization under WCRP to provide the science oversight, data policy and stewardship, and to promote collaboration and partnership among national programs. It makes eminent sense for WCRP to expand the concept and the prototype proposed by JAMEX to include all monsoon countries to expand AMY08-09 into an International Monsoon Era (2008- 2013). Such an establishment followed by establishment of an international body for science oversight, and data stewardship will go a long way in promoting coordination and connection among various existing monsoon research programs within WCRP, and with burgeoning national programs on monsoon and aerosol research.

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX): A Core Element for the Asian Monsoon Year (2008-2009)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.M.

2007-01-01

Tropospheric Aerosol: an International Regional Experiment (East-AIRE), and Radiation Aerosol Joint Observations - Monsoon Experiments over the Gangetic Himalayas Area (Rajo-Megha: dust cloud in Sanskrit) from the US, and Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIR) under the Earth Systems I Science Partnership (ESSP) and WCRP. For JAMEX to succeed, it is crucial for an international body, such as CEOP or an organization under WCRP to provide the science oversight, data policy and stewardship, and to promote collaboration and partnership among national programs. It makes eminent sense for WCRP to expand the concept and the prototype proposed by JAMEX to include all monsoon countries to expand AMY08-09 into an International Monsoon Era (2008- 2013). Such an establishment followed by establishment of an international body for science oversight, and data stewardship will go a long way in promoting coordination and connection among various existing monsoon research programs within WCRP, and with burgeoning national programs on monsoon and aerosol research.

Changes in Vegetation Cover over the Indian Peninsula and Implications for the Indian Monsoon System during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponton, C.; Giosan, L.; Eglinton, T. I.; Scientific Team Of Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01

2010-12-01

The Asian monsoon, composed of the East Asian and Indian systems affects the most densely populated region of the planet. The Indian monsoon is one of the most energetic and dynamic climate processes that occur today on Earth, but we still do not have a detailed understanding of large-scale hydrological variability over the Indian peninsula during the Holocene. Previous studies of the salinity variations in the Bay of Bengal indicate that during the last glacial maximum the Indian monsoon system was weaker and precipitation over the area was lower than today. Here we provide the first high resolution Holocene climate record for central India measured on a sediment core recovered offshore the mouth of the Godavari River, on the eastern Indian shelf. The δ13C composition of leaf waxes preserved in the core shows a large range of variation suggesting a major change in the relative proportions of C3 and C4 plant-derived wax inputs during the Holocene. Using reported values for modern plants, we estimate that C3 plants suffered a reduction in the Godavari basin from ~45% to ~15% over the Holocene. Negative excursions of δ13C leaf wax suggest that short-lived events of C3 plant resurgence (and inferred higher precipitation) punctuated the process of aridification of peninsular India. The vegetation structure and inferred aridity in central India is consistent with reconstructions of Indian monsoon precipitation and wind intensity in the Arabian Sea, salinity in the Bay of Bengal, and precipitation proxy records for the East Asian monsoon, suggesting a coherent behavior of the Asian monsoon system over the Holocene.

Tohono O'odham Monsoon Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, G.

2006-12-01

The North American monsoon is a summertime weather phenomenon that develops over the southwestern North America. For thousands of years the Tohono O'odham people of this area have depended on the associated rainy season (Jukiabig Masad) to grow traditional crops using runoff agriculture. Today, the high incidence of Type II diabetes among native people has prompted many to return to their traditional agricultural diets. Local monsoon onset dates and the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset were used to develop a 24-year Tohono O'odham Nation (TON) monsoon and pre-monsoon climatology that can be used as a tool for planning runoff agriculture. Using monsoon composite datasets, temporal and spatial correlations between antecedent period meteorological variables, monsoon onset dates and total monsoon precipitation were examined to identify variables that could be useful in predicting the onset and intensity of the monsoon. The results suggest additional research is needed to identify variables related to monsoon onset and intensity.

Monsoon Forecasting based on Imbalanced Classification Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Troncoso, Alicia; Asencio-Cortes, Gualberto; Vega, Inmaculada; Gallego, David

2017-04-01

Monsoonal systems are quasiperiodic processes of the climatic system that control seasonal precipitation over different regions of the world. The Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) is one of those monsoons and it is known to have a great impact both over the global climate and over the total precipitation of very densely populated areas. The interannual variability of the WNPSM along the last 50-60 years has been related to different climatic indices such as El Niño, El Niño Modoki, the Indian Ocean Dipole or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Recently, a new and longer series characterizing the monthly evolution of the WNPSM, the WNP Directional Index (WNPDI), has been developed, extending its previous length from about 50 years to more than 100 years (1900-2007). Imbalanced classification techniques have been applied to the WNPDI in order to check the capability of traditional climate indices to capture and forecast the evolution of the WNPSM. The problem of forecasting has been transformed into a binary classification problem, in which the positive class represents the occurrence of an extreme monsoon event. Given that the number of extreme monsoons is much lower than the number of non-extreme monsoons, the resultant classification problem is highly imbalanced. The complete dataset is composed of 1296 instances, where only 71 (5.47%) samples correspond to extreme monsoons. Twenty predictor variables based on the cited climatic indices have been proposed, and namely, models based on trees, black box models such as neural networks, support vector machines and nearest neighbors, and finally ensemble-based techniques as random forests have been used in order to forecast the occurrence of extreme monsoons. It can be concluded that the methodology proposed here reports promising results according to the quality parameters evaluated and predicts extreme monsoons for a temporal horizon of a month with a high accuracy. From a climatological point of view

Reconciling societal and scientific definitions for the monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeve, Mathew; Stephenson, David

2014-05-01

Science defines the monsoon in numerous ways. We can apply these definitions to forecast data, reanalysis data, observations, GCMs and more. In a basic research setting, we hope that this work will advance science and our understanding of the monsoon system. In an applied research setting, we often hope that this work will benefit a specific stakeholder or community. We may want to inform a stakeholder when the monsoon starts, now and in the future. However, what happens if the stakeholders cannot relate to the information because their perceptions do not align with the monsoon definition we use in our analysis? We can resolve this either by teaching the stakeholders or learning from them about how they define the monsoon and when they perceive it to begin. In this work we reconcile different scientific monsoon definitions with the perceptions of agricultural communities in Bangladesh. We have developed a statistical technique that rates different scientific definitions against the people's perceptions of when the monsoon starts and ends. We construct a probability mass function (pmf) around each of the respondent's answers in a questionnaire survey. We can use this pmf to analyze the time series of monsoon onsets and withdrawals from the different scientific definitions. We can thereby quantitatively judge which definition may be most appropriate for a specific applied research setting.

Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change: a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Cornelia; Bliefernicht, Jan; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Gessner, Ursula; Klein, Igor; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-05-01

West Africa is a hot spot region for land-atmosphere coupling where atmospheric conditions and convective rainfall can strongly depend on surface characteristics. To investigate the effect of natural interannual vegetation changes on the West African monsoon precipitation, we implement satellite-derived dynamical datasets for vegetation fraction (VF), albedo and leaf area index into the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two sets of 4-member ensembles with dynamic and static land surface description are used to extract vegetation-related changes in the interannual difference between August-September 2009 and 2010. The observed vegetation patterns retain a significant long-term memory of preceding rainfall patterns of at least 2 months. The interannual vegetation changes exhibit the strongest effect on latent heat fluxes and associated surface temperatures. We find a decrease (increase) of rainy hours over regions with higher (lower) VF during the day and the opposite during the night. The probability that maximum precipitation is shifted to nighttime (daytime) over higher (lower) VF is 12 % higher than by chance. We attribute this behaviour to horizontal circulations driven by differential heating. Over more vegetated regions, the divergence of moist air together with lower sensible heat fluxes hinders the initiation of deep convection during the day. During the night, mature convective systems cause an increase in the number of rainy hours over these regions. We identify this feedback in both water- and energy-limited regions of West Africa. The inclusion of observed dynamical surface information improved the spatial distribution of modelled rainfall in the Sahel with respect to observations, illustrating the potential of satellite data as a boundary constraint for atmospheric models.

Differences of atmospheric boundary layer characteristics between pre-monsoon and monsoon period over the Erhai Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lujun; Liu, Huizhi; Du, Qun; Wang, Lei; Yang, Liu; Sun, Jihua

2018-01-01

The differences in planetary boundary layer characteristics, in particular atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH), humidity, and local circulations in pre-monsoon and monsoon period over the Erhai Lake, were simulated by the lake-atmosphere coupled model WRF v3.7.1. No lake simulations were also conducted to investigate lake effects over complex topography. During pre-monsoon period, local circulation was fully developed under weak synoptic system. The ABLH ran up to 2300 m or so. During monsoon period, temperature difference between land and lake became smaller, resulting in weaker local circulations. The height of circulation reduced by 500 m, and ABLH ran up to 1100 m during the day. Enhanced soil moisture and low surface temperature due to monsoon rainfalls in July could be the main reason for the slightly lower ABLH over the Erhai Lake area. Specific humidity of the boundary layer increased 8.8 g kg-1 or so during monsoon period. The Erhai Lake enlarged thermal contrast between valley and mountain slope in the Dali Basin. The lake reduced air temperature by 2 3 °C during daytime and increased air temperature by nearly 2 °C in the evening. Due to its small roughness length and large thermal capacity, the Erhai Lake enlarged lake-land temperature difference and local wind speed. A cyclonic circulation was maintained by the combination of mountain breeze and land breeze in the south of the lake. The lake decreased air temperature, increased specific humidity, and reduced ABLH during daytime, whereas the opposite effect is presented at night.

Highly Improved Predictability in the Forecasting of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, E.; Chase, T. N.; Rajagopalan, B.

2007-12-01

The East Asian summer monsoon greatly influences the lives and property of about a quarter of all the people in the world. However, the predictability of the monsoon is very low in comparison with that of Indian summer monsoon because of the complexity of the system which involves both tropical and sub-tropical climates. Previous monsoon prediction models emphasized ocean factors as the primary monsoon forcing. Here we show that pre-season land surface cover is at least as important as ocean indices. A new statistical forecast model of the East Asian summer monsoon using land cover conditions in addition to ocean heat sources doubles the predictability relative to a model using ocean factors alone. This work highlights the, as yet, undocumented importance of seasonal land cover in monsoon prediction and the role of the biosphere in the climate system as a whole. We also detail the physical mechanisms involved in these land surface forcings.

Dynamics of Monsoon-Induced Biennial Variability in ENSO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, K.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The mechanism of the quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon coupled system is investigated using an intermediate coupled model. The monsoon wind forcing is prescribed as a function of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies based on the relationship between zonal wind anomalies over the western Pacific to sea level change in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The key mechanism of quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino evolution is found to be in the strong coupling of ENSO to monsoon wind forcing over the western Pacific. Strong boreal summer monsoon wind forcing, which lags the maximum SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific approximately 6 months, tends to generate Kelvin waves of the opposite sign to anomalies in the eastern Pacific and initiates the turnabout in the eastern Pacific. Boreal winter monsoon forcing, which has zero lag with maximum SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific, tends to damp the ENSO oscillations.

Clouds vertical properties over the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions from CloudSat-CALIPSO measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Subrata Kumar; Golhait, R. B.; Uma, K. N.

2017-01-01

The CloudSat spaceborne radar and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) space-borne lidar measurements, provide opportunities to understand the intriguing behavior of the vertical structure of monsoon clouds. The combined CloudSat-CALIPSO data products have been used for the summer season (June-August) of 2006-2010 to present the statistics of cloud macrophysical (such as cloud occurrence frequency, distribution of cloud top and base heights, geometrical thickness and cloud types base on occurrence height), and microphysical (such as ice water content, ice water path, and ice effective radius) properties of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon region. The monsoon regions considered in this work are the North American (NAM), North African (NAF), Indian (IND), East Asian (EAS), and Western North Pacific (WNP). The total cloud fraction over the IND (mostly multiple-layered cloud) appeared to be more frequent as compared to the other monsoon regions. Three distinctive modes of cloud top height distribution are observed over all the monsoon regions. The high-level cloud fraction is comparatively high over the WNP and IND. The ice water content and ice water path over the IND are maximum compared to the other monsoon regions. We found that the ice water content has little variations over the NAM, NAF, IND, and WNP as compared to their macrophysical properties and thus give an impression that the regional differences in dynamics and thermodynamics properties primarily cause changes in the cloud frequency or coverage and only secondary in the cloud ice properties. The background atmospheric dynamics using wind and relative humidity from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data have also been investigated which helps in understanding the variability of the cloud properties over the different monsoon regions.

South American Monsoon precipitation trends from 1948-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araujo, L. R.; De Mattos, J. Z.; Goncalves, L.

2013-05-01

In South America the monsoon system affects the Amazon region extending to the center of the South American continent to the northeast and southeast coastal strip. The characteristic South America Monsoon System (SAMS) is not classical, as in East Asia and India. The SAMS do not show a typical seasonal reversal in wind circulation regime, however indicates aspect of monsoon climate, as well as the seasonal cycle of rainfall over much of the continent, this is, a period of intense rain in summer and winter extremely dry. Despite the precipitation rate in the region of the SAMS being lower than other monsoon areas of the globe, it has a great influency in the major human and economical activities in that continent what motivetis the goal of this work which is to study the trend of rainfall over South America during the monsoon season in South America. For this study Climate Research Unit (CRU) precipitation data was used for the period between 1948 and 2006 during the months from November to March. The spatial resolution of the data is 1 degree and 3 hours temporal resolution. Preliminary results show that there was a pattern of positive trend in precipitation for the months of January, February, March, months in the seasonal cycle of precipitation SAMS.

Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; Wang, Fuyao

Generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA) is a potentially valuable multivariate statistical tool for extracting vegetation feedbacks to the atmosphere in either observations or coupled Earth system models. The reliability of GEFA at capturing the terrestrial impacts on regional climate is demonstrated in this paper using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM), with focus on North Africa. The feedback is assessed statistically by applying GEFA to output from a fully coupled control run. To reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional or full GEFA is refined through stepwise GEFA by dropping unimportantmore » forcings. Two ensembles of dynamical experiments are developed for the Sahel or West African monsoon region against which GEFA-based vegetation feedbacks are evaluated. In these dynamical experiments, regional leaf area index (LAI) is modified either alone or in conjunction with soil moisture, with the latter runs motivated by strong regional soil moisture–LAI coupling. Stepwise GEFA boasts higher consistency between statistically and dynamically assessed atmospheric responses to land surface anomalies than full GEFA, especially with short data records. GEFA-based atmospheric responses are more consistent with the coupled soil moisture–LAI experiments, indicating that GEFA is assessing the combined impacts of coupled vegetation and soil moisture. Finally, both the statistical and dynamical assessments reveal a negative vegetation–rainfall feedback in the Sahel associated with an atmospheric stability mechanism in CESM versus a weaker positive feedback in the West African monsoon region associated with a moisture recycling mechanism in CESM.« less

Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; Wang, Fuyao; ...

2018-02-05

Generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA) is a potentially valuable multivariate statistical tool for extracting vegetation feedbacks to the atmosphere in either observations or coupled Earth system models. The reliability of GEFA at capturing the terrestrial impacts on regional climate is demonstrated in this paper using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM), with focus on North Africa. The feedback is assessed statistically by applying GEFA to output from a fully coupled control run. To reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional or full GEFA is refined through stepwise GEFA by dropping unimportantmore » forcings. Two ensembles of dynamical experiments are developed for the Sahel or West African monsoon region against which GEFA-based vegetation feedbacks are evaluated. In these dynamical experiments, regional leaf area index (LAI) is modified either alone or in conjunction with soil moisture, with the latter runs motivated by strong regional soil moisture–LAI coupling. Stepwise GEFA boasts higher consistency between statistically and dynamically assessed atmospheric responses to land surface anomalies than full GEFA, especially with short data records. GEFA-based atmospheric responses are more consistent with the coupled soil moisture–LAI experiments, indicating that GEFA is assessing the combined impacts of coupled vegetation and soil moisture. Finally, both the statistical and dynamical assessments reveal a negative vegetation–rainfall feedback in the Sahel associated with an atmospheric stability mechanism in CESM versus a weaker positive feedback in the West African monsoon region associated with a moisture recycling mechanism in CESM.« less

Monsoon-Enso Relationships: A New Paradigm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This article is partly a review and partly a new research paper on monsoon-ENSO relationship. The paper begins with a discussion of the basic relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO dating back to the work of Sir Gilbert Walker up to research results in more recent years. Various factors that may affect the monsoon-ENSO, relationship, including regional coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, Eurasian snow cover, land-atmosphere hydrologic feedback, intraseasonal oscillation, biennial variability and inter-decadal variations, are discussed. The extreme complex and highly nonlinear nature of the monsoon-ENSO relationship is stressed. We find that for regional impacts on the monsoon, El Nino and La Nina are far from simply mirror images of each other. These two polarities of ENSO can have strong or no impacts on monsoon anomalies depending on the strength of the intraseasonal oscillations and the phases of the inter-decadal variations. For the Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) as a whole, the ENSO impact is effected through a east-west shift in the Walker Circulation. For rainfall anomalies over specific monsoon areas, regional processes play important roles in addition to the shift in the Walker Circulation. One of the key regional processes identified for the boreal summer monsoon is the anomalous West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA). This regional feature has similar signatures in interannual and intraseasonal time scales and appears to determine whether the monsoon-ENSO relationship is strong or weak in a given year. Another important regional feature includes a rainfall and SST dipole across the Indian Ocean, which may have strong impact on the austral summer monsoon. Results are shown indicating that monsoon surface wind forcings may induce a strong biennial signal in ENSO and that strong monsoon-ENSO coupling may translate into pronounced biennial variability in ENSO. Finally, a new paradigm is proposed for the study of monsoon variability. This paradigm provides

Monsoon Convection during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment Observed from Shipboard Radar and the TRMM Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rickenbach, Tom; Cifelli, Rob; Halverson, Jeff; Kucera, Paul; Atkinson, Lester; Fisher, Brad; Gerlach, John; Harris, Kathy; Kaufman, Cristina; Liu, Ching-Hwang;

Reconstructing Holocene hematite and goethite variations in the Indus Canyon to trace changes in the Asian monsoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koehler, Cornelia; Clift, Peter; Pressling, Nicola; Limmer, David; Giosan, Liviu; Tabrez, Ali

2010-05-01

In order to study Holocene Asian monsoon variations, we reconstructed changes in chemical weathering by examining sediments from the Indus Canyon. During the late Holocene, the Asian monsoon system had periods of high and low intensities that influenced the civilisations living in its realm. For example, the demise of the Harappan civilisation has been linked to a weakened monsoon system around 4 ka. The sediments in the Indus Canyon, which originate from the River Indus and its Himalayan tributaries, provide an ideal, natural environmental archive of the South Asian monsoon system. In order to investigate the alternation between arid and humid monsoonal climatic conditions, variations are traced using the magnetic minerals hematite and goethite, which form under distinct environmental conditions: goethite is stable under humid conditions, whereas hematite forms from the dehydration of goethite under arid conditions. The two minerals are characterised and quantified using environmental magnetic measurements, as well as diffuse reflectance spectrometry. Combining both approaches will enable us to reconstruct variations in chemical weathering over time. Furthermore, because this is governed by temperature and the availability of moisture, our weathering record will allow us to understand monsoon variability during the Holocene and test whether summer rain intensity has been decreasing in SW Asia since 8 ka. In addition, the multi-component analysis of colour reflectance spectra identifies different mineral components including hematite/goethite, clay mineral mixtures, calcite and organics. We will present our results from the multi-sensor core logger equipped with a Minolta spectrometer, measuring both magnetic susceptibility and the optical properties of the split sediment cores. Initial results indicate the presence of hematite and goethite in the sediment. There is an increasing hematite content up the cores, indicating an aridification trend during the Holocene

A 3 million year index for North African humidity/aridity and the implication of potential pan-African Humid periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, Katharine M.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Westerhold, Thomas; Zabel, Matthias; Heslop, David; Konijnendijk, Tiuri; Lourens, Lucas

2017-09-01

Mediterranean sediments are valuable archives of both African monsoon variability and higher-latitude climate processes, and can also be used to provide an environmental context for early human migrations and settlements. However, the long history of Mediterranean palaeoclimate studies largely pre-dates the advent of widespread x-ray fluorescence (XRF) core-scanning, so there are few continuous and high-resolution geochemical records from this key region that extend beyond the last glacial cycle. Here we present XRF core-scanning results for ODP Site 967 (Eastern Mediterranean) that have been fully-calibrated into element concentrations spanning the last 3 million years (My). Comparison with independent geochemical data from conventional XRF highlights disparities for certain element/element ratios, thus suggesting the need for caution when taking ratios of scanning XRF data. Principal component analysis of the calibrated XRF dataset reveals two dominant components: detrital inputs (PC1) and a 'sapropel' (≈monsoon run-off) signal (PC2), which we use to establish a new orbitally-tuned chronology. We observe inverse covariation between PC2 and a previously published aeolian dust record from ODP Site 967 (Larrasoaña et al., 2003), and combine these records to produce a composite index of humidity and aridity for the wider North African region over the past 3 My. We propose that by combining run-off and dust signals in a single metric, our index captures the effects of both strengthening/northward migration (increased run-off) and weakening/southward retreat (increased dust) of the North African monsoon. Comparison of the index with published records of Northwest and East African palaeohumidity suggests that it tracks the timing of ;Green Sahara Periods; throughout the Plio-Pleistocene, and that at least 30 of these intervals coincided with increased humidity across East Africa. We tentatively suggest that these specific episodes may be termed ;pan-African Humid

The representation of low-level clouds during the West African monsoon in weather and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniffka, Anke; Hannak, Lisa; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas

2016-04-01

The West African monsoon is one of the most important large-scale circulation features in the tropics and the associated seasonal rainfalls are crucial to rain-fed agriculture and water resources for hundreds of millions of people. However, numerical weather and climate models still struggle to realistically represent salient features of the monsoon across a wide range of scales. Recently it has been shown that substantial errors in radiation and clouds exist in the southern parts of West Africa (8°W-8°E, 5-10°N) during summer. This area is characterised by strong low-level jets associated with the formation of extensive ultra-low stratus clouds. Often persisting long after sunrise, these clouds have a substantial impact on the radiation budget at the surface and thus the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we present some first results from a detailed analysis of the representation of these clouds and the associated PBL features across a range of weather and climate models. Recent climate model simulations for the period 1991-2010 run in the framework of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) offer a great opportunity for this analysis. The models are those used for the latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but for YOTC the model output has a much better temporal resolution, allowing to resolve the diurnal cycle, and includes diabatic terms, allowing to much better assess physical reasons for errors in low-level temperature, moisture and thus cloudiness. These more statistical climate model analyses are complemented by experiments using ICON (Icosahedral non-hydrostatic general circulation model), the new numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. ICON allows testing sensitivities to model resolution and numerical schemes. These model simulations are validated against (re-)analysis data, satellite observations (e.g. CM SAF cloud and

Indian Monsoon Low-Pressure Systems Feed Up-and-Over Moisture Transport to the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Wenhao; Lin, Yanluan; Wright, Jonathon S.; Xie, Yuanyu; Xu, Fanghua; Xu, Wenqing; Wang, Yan

2017-11-01

As an integral part of the South Asian summer monsoon system, monsoon low-pressure systems (LPSs) bring large amounts of precipitation to agrarian north and central India during their passage across the subcontinent. In this study, we investigate the role of LPSs in supplying moisture from north and central India to the southwestern Tibetan Plateau (SWTP) and quantify the contribution of these systems to summer rainfall over the SWTP. The results show that more than 60% of total summer rainfall over the SWTP is related to LPS occurrence. LPSs are associated with a 15% rise in average daily rainfall and a 10% rise in rainy days over the SWTP. This relationship is maintained primarily through up-and-over transport, in which convectively lifted moisture over the Indian subcontinent is swept over the SWTP by southwesterly winds in the middle troposphere. LPSs play two roles in supplying up-and-over moisture transport. First, these systems elevate large amounts of water vapor and condensed water to the midtroposphere. Second, the circulations associated with LPSs interact with the background westerlies to induce southwesterly flow in the midtroposphere, transporting elevated moisture and condensate over the Himalayan Mountains. Our findings indicate that LPSs are influential in extending the northern boundary of the South Asian monsoon system across the Himalayas into the interior of the SWTP. The strength of this connection depends on both LPS characteristics and the configuration of the midtropospheric circulation, particularly the prevailing westerlies upstream of the SWTP.

Influence of Decadal Variability of Global Oceans on South Asian Monsoon and ENSO-Monsoon Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi

This study has investigated the influence of the decadal variability associated with global oceans on South Asian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relation. The results are based on observational analysis using long records of monsoon rainfall and circulation and coupled general circulation model experiments using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 4 model. The multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) of the observed rainfall over India yields three decadal modes. The first mode (52 year period) is associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the second one (21 year) with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the third mode (13 year) with the Atlantic tripole. The existence of these decadal modes in the monsoon was also found in the control simulation of NCAR CCSM4. The regionally de-coupled model experiments performed to isolate the influence of North Pacific and North Atlantic also substantiate the above results. The relation between the decadal modes in the monsoon rainfall with the known decadal modes in global SST is examined. The PDO has significant negative correlation with the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR). The mechanism for PDO-monsoon relation is hypothesized through the seasonal footprinting mechanism and further through Walker and Hadley circulations. The model results also confirm the negative correlation between PDO and IMR and the mechanism through which PDO influences monsoon. Both observational and model analysis show that droughts (floods) are more likely over India than floods (droughts) when ENSO and PDO are in their warm (cold) phase. This study emphasizes the importance of carefully distinguishing the different decadal modes in the SST in the North Atlantic Ocean as they have different impacts on the monsoon. The AMO exhibits significant positive correlation with the IMR while the Atlantic tripole has significant negative

Causal evidence between monsoon and evolution of rhizomyine rodents

PubMed Central

López-Antoñanzas, Raquel; Knoll, Fabien; Wan, Shiming; Flynn, Lawrence J.

2015-01-01

The modern Asian monsoonal systems are currently believed to have originated around the end of the Oligocene following a crucial step of uplift of the Tibetan-Himalayan highlands. Although monsoon possibly drove the evolution of many mammal lineages during the Neogene, no evidence thereof has been provided so far. We examined the evolutionary history of a clade of rodents, the Rhizomyinae, in conjunction with our current knowledge of monsoon fluctuations over time. The macroevolutionary dynamics of rhizomyines were analyzed within a well-constrained phylogenetic framework coupled with biogeographic and evolutionary rate studies. The evolutionary novelties developed by these rodents were surveyed in parallel with the fluctuations of the Indian monsoon so as to evaluate synchroneity and postulate causal relationships. We showed the existence of three drops in biodiversity during the evolution of rhizomyines, all of which reflected elevated extinction rates. Our results demonstrated linkage of monsoon variations with the evolution and biogeography of rhizomyines. Paradoxically, the evolution of rhizomyines was accelerated during the phases of weakening of the monsoons, not of strengthening, most probably because at those intervals forest habitats declined, which triggered extinction and progressive specialization toward a burrowing existence. PMID:25759260

Causal evidence between monsoon and evolution of rhizomyine rodents.

PubMed

López-Antoñanzas, Raquel; Knoll, Fabien; Wan, Shiming; Flynn, Lawrence J

2015-03-11

The modern Asian monsoonal systems are currently believed to have originated around the end of the Oligocene following a crucial step of uplift of the Tibetan-Himalayan highlands. Although monsoon possibly drove the evolution of many mammal lineages during the Neogene, no evidence thereof has been provided so far. We examined the evolutionary history of a clade of rodents, the Rhizomyinae, in conjunction with our current knowledge of monsoon fluctuations over time. The macroevolutionary dynamics of rhizomyines were analyzed within a well-constrained phylogenetic framework coupled with biogeographic and evolutionary rate studies. The evolutionary novelties developed by these rodents were surveyed in parallel with the fluctuations of the Indian monsoon so as to evaluate synchroneity and postulate causal relationships. We showed the existence of three drops in biodiversity during the evolution of rhizomyines, all of which reflected elevated extinction rates. Our results demonstrated linkage of monsoon variations with the evolution and biogeography of rhizomyines. Paradoxically, the evolution of rhizomyines was accelerated during the phases of weakening of the monsoons, not of strengthening, most probably because at those intervals forest habitats declined, which triggered extinction and progressive specialization toward a burrowing existence.

Fast and Slow Responses of the South Asian Monsoon System to Anthropogenic Aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

2012-09-25

Using a global climate model with fully predictive aerosol life cycle, we investigate the fast and slow responses of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Our results show that the feedbacks associated with sea surface temperature (SST) change caused by aerosols play a more important role than the aerosol's direct impact on radiation, clouds and land surface (rapid adjustments) in shaping the total equilibrium climate response of the monsoon system to aerosol forcing. Inhomogeneous SST cooling caused by anthropogenic aerosols eventually reduces the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient and the easterly shear of zonal winds over the region,more » slowing down the local Hadley cell circulation, decreasing the northward moisture transport, and causing a reduction in precipitation over South Asia. Although total responses in precipitation are closer to the slow responses in general, the fast component dominates over land areas north of 25°N. Our results also show an east-west asymmetry in the fast responses to anthropogenic aerosols causing increases in precipitation west of 80°E but decreases east of it.« less

Centennial-scale solar forcing of the South American Monsoon System recorded in stalagmites.

PubMed

Novello, Valdir F; Vuille, Mathias; Cruz, Francisco W; Stríkis, Nicolás M; de Paula, Marcos Saito; Edwards, R Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Karmann, Ivo; Jaqueto, Plínio F; Trindade, Ricardo I F; Hartmann, Gelvam A; Moquet, Jean S

2016-04-21

The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is generally considered to be highly sensitive to Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature variations on multi-centennial timescales. The direct influence of solar forcing on moisture convergence in global monsoon systems on the other hand, while well explored in modeling studies, has hitherto not been documented in proxy data from the SAMS region. Hence little is known about the sensitivity of the SAMS to solar forcing over the past millennium and how it might compete or constructively interfere with NH temperature variations that occurred primarily in response to volcanic forcing. Here we present a new annually-resolved oxygen isotope record from a 1500-year long stalagmite recording past changes in precipitation in the hitherto unsampled core region of the SAMS. This record details how solar variability consistently modulated the strength of the SAMS on centennial time scales during the past 1500 years. Solar forcing, besides the previously recognized influence from NH temperature changes and associated Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts, appears as a major driver affecting SAMS intensity at centennial time scales.

Interactions Between Asian Air Pollution and Monsoon System: South Asia (ROSES-2014 ACMAP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pan, Xiaohua; Chin, Mian; Tao, Zhining; Kim, Dongchul; Bian, Huisheng; Kucsera, Tom

2018-01-01

Asia's rapid economic growth over the past several decades has brought a remarkable increase in air pollution levels in that region. High concentrations of aerosols (also known as particulate matter or PM) from pollution sources pose major health hazards to half of the world population in Asia including South Asia. How do pollution and dust aerosols regulate the monsoon circulation and rainfall via scattering and absorbing solar radiation, changing the atmospheric heating rates, and modifying the cloud properties? We conducted a series of regional model experiments with NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecast (NUWRF) regional model with coupled aerosol-chemistry-radiation-microphysics processes over South Asia for winter, pre-monsoon, and monsoon seasons to address this question. This study investigates the worsening air quality problem in South Asia by focusing on the interactions between pollution and South Asian monsoon, not merely focusing on the increase of pollutant emissions.

Energetics and monsoon bifurcations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seshadri, Ashwin K.

2017-01-01

Monsoons involve increases in dry static energy (DSE), with primary contributions from increased shortwave radiation and condensation of water vapor, compensated by DSE export via horizontal fluxes in monsoonal circulations. We introduce a simple box-model characterizing evolution of the DSE budget to study nonlinear dynamics of steady-state monsoons. Horizontal fluxes of DSE are stabilizing during monsoons, exporting DSE and hence weakening the monsoonal circulation. By contrast latent heat addition (LHA) due to condensation of water vapor destabilizes, by increasing the DSE budget. These two factors, horizontal DSE fluxes and LHA, are most strongly dependent on the contrast in tropospheric mean temperature between land and ocean. For the steady-state DSE in the box-model to be stable, the DSE flux should depend more strongly on the temperature contrast than LHA; stronger circulation then reduces DSE and thereby restores equilibrium. We present conditions for this to occur. The main focus of the paper is describing conditions for bifurcation behavior of simple models. Previous authors presented a minimal model of abrupt monsoon transitions and argued that such behavior can be related to a positive feedback called the `moisture advection feedback'. However, by accounting for the effect of vertical lapse rate of temperature on the DSE flux, we show that bifurcations are not a generic property of such models despite these fluxes being nonlinear in the temperature contrast. We explain the origin of this behavior and describe conditions for a bifurcation to occur. This is illustrated for the case of the July-mean monsoon over India. The default model with mean parameter estimates does not contain a bifurcation, but the model admits bifurcation as parameters are varied.

Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions.

PubMed

Liu, Fei; Chai, Jing; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Zhiyuan

2016-04-11

Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do.

Hybrid insolation forcing of Pliocene monsoon dynamics in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuechler, Rony R.; Dupont, Lydie M.; Schefuß, Enno

2018-01-01

The Pliocene is regarded as a potential analogue for future climate with conditions generally warmer-than-today and higher-than-preindustrial atmospheric CO2 levels. Here we present the first orbitally resolved records of continental hydrology and vegetation changes from West Africa for two Pliocene time intervals (5.0-4.6 Ma, 3.6-3.0 Ma), which we compare with records from the last glacial cycle (Kuechler et al., 2013). Our results indicate that changes in local insolation alone are insufficient to explain the full degree of hydrologic variations. Generally two modes of interacting insolation forcings are observed: during eccentricity maxima, when precession was strong, the West African monsoon was driven by summer insolation; during eccentricity minima, when precession-driven variations in local insolation were minimal, obliquity-driven changes in the summer latitudinal insolation gradient became dominant. This hybrid monsoonal forcing concept explains orbitally controlled tropical climate changes, incorporating the forcing mechanism of latitudinal gradients for the Pliocene, which probably increased in importance during subsequent Northern Hemisphere glaciations.

Asian Monsoons: Variability, Predictability, and Sensitivity to External Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.

1999-01-01

In this study, we have addressed the interannual variations of Asian monsoons including both broad-scale and regional monsoon components. Particular attention is devoted to the identities of the South China Sea monsoon and Indian monsoon. We use CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation and NCEP reanalyses to define regional monsoon indices and to depict the various monsoons. Parallel modeling studies have also been carried out to assess the role of boundary forcing and the potential predictability of the monsoons. Each monsoon is characterized by its unique features. While the South Asian monsoon represents a classical monsoon in which anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, the Southeast Asian monsoon symbolizes a "hybrid" monsoon that features multi-cellular meridional circulation over eastern Asia. The broad-scale Asian monsoon links to the basin-wide atmospheric circulation over the Indian-Pacific oceans. Both SST and land surface processes are important for determining the variations of all monsoons. For the broad-scale monsoon, SST anomalies are more important than land surface processes. For regional monsoons, however, land surface processes may become equally important. Both observation and model shows that the broad-scale monsoon is potentially more predictable than regional monsoons, and that the Southeast Asian monsoon may possess higher predictability than the South Asian monsoon.

Asian Monsoons: Variability, Predictability, and Sensitivity to External Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.

1999-01-01

In this study, we have addressed the interannual variations of Asian monsoons including both broad-scale and regional monsoon components. Particular attention is devoted to the identities of the South China Sea monsoon and Indian monsoon. We use CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation and NCEP reanalyses to define regional monsoon indices and to depict the various monsoons. Parallel modeling studies have also been carried out to assess the potential predictability of the broad-scale and regional monsoons. Each monsoon is characterized by its unique features. While the South Asian monsoon represents a classical monsoon in which anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, the Southeast Asian monsoon symbolizes a "hybrid" monsoon that features multi-cellular meridional circulation over eastern Asia. The broad-scale Asian monsoon links to the basin-wide atmospheric circulation over the Indian-Pacific oceans. Both Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and land surface processes are important for determining the variations of all monsoons. For the broad-scale monsoon, SST anomalies are more important than land surface processes. However, for regional monsoons, land surface processes may become equally important. Both observation and model shows that the broad-scale monsoon is potentially more predictable than regional monsoons, and that the Southeast Asian monsoon may possess higher predictability than the South Asian monsoon.

Desert Dust and Monsoon Rain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2014-01-01

For centuries, inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent have know that heavy dust events brought on by strong winds occur frequently in the pre-monsoon season, before the onset of heavy rain. Yet scientists have never seriously considered the possibility that natural dust can affect monsoon rainfall. Up to now, most studies of the impacts of aerosols on Indian monsoon rainfall have focused on anthropogenic aerosols in the context of climate change. However, a few recent studies have show that aerosols from antropogenic and natural sources over the Indian subcontinent may affect the transition from break to active monsoon phases on short timescales of days to weeks. Writing in Nature Geoscience, Vinoj and colleagues describe how they have shown that desert dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia can strenghten the summer monsoon over the Indial subcontinent in a matter of days.

Does Aerosol Weaken or Strengthen the South Asian Monsoon?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2007-01-01

Aerosols are known to have the ability to block off solar radiation reaching the earth surface, causing it to cool - the so-called solar dimming (SDM) effect. In the Asian monsoon region, the SDM effect by aerosol can produce differential cooling at the surface reducing the meridional thermal contrast between land and ocean, leading to a weakening of the monsoon (Ramanathan et al. 2005). On the other hand, absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and dust, when forced up against the steep slopes of the southern Tibetan Plateau can produce upper tropospheric heating, and induce convection-dynamic feedback leading to an advance of the rainy season over northern India and an enhancement of the South Asian monsoon through the "Elevated Heat Pump" (EHP) effect (Lau et al. 2006). In this paper, we present modeling results showing that in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system in which concentrations of greenhouse gases are kept constant, the response of the South Asian monsoon to dust and black carbon forcing is the net result of the two opposing effects of SDM and EHP. For the South Asian monsoon, if the increasing upper tropospheric thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and region to the south spurred by the EHP overwhelms the reduction in surface temperature contrast due to SDM, the monsoon strengthens. Otherwise, the monsoon weakens. Preliminary observations are consistent with the above findings. We find that the two effects are strongly scale dependent. On interannual and shorter time scales, the EHP effect appears to dominate in the early summer season (May-June). On decadal or longer time scales, the SDM dominates for the mature monsoon (July-August). Better understanding the physical mechanisms underlying the SDM and the EHP effects, the local emission and transport of aerosols from surrounding deserts and arid-regions, and their interaction with monsoon water cycle dynamics are important in providing better prediction and assessment of climate change

Does Aerosol Weaken or Strengthen the South Asian Monsoon?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.

2010-01-01

Aerosols are known to have the ability to block off solar radiation reaching the earth surface, causing it to cool - the so-called solar dimming (SDM) effect. In the Asian monsoon region, the SDM effect by aerosol can produce differential cooling at the surface reducing the meridional thermal contrast between land and ocean, leading to a weakening of the monsoon. On the other hand, absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and dust, when forced up against the steep slopes of the southern Tibetan Plateau can produce upper tropospheric heating, and induce convection-dynamic feedback leading to an advance of the rainy season over northern India and an enhancement of the South Asian monsoon through the "Elevated Heat Pump" (EHP) effect. In this paper, we present modeling results showing that in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system in which concentrations of greenhouse gases are kept constant, the response of the South Asian monsoon to dust and black carbon forcing is the net result of the two opposing effects of SDM and EHP. For the South Asian monsoon, if the increasing upper tropospheric thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and region to the south spurred by the EHP overwhelms the reduction in surface temperature contrast due to SDM, the monsoon strengthens. Otherwise, the monsoon weakens. Preliminary observations are consistent with the above findings. We find that the two effects are strongly scale dependent. On interannual and shorter time scales, the EHP effect appears to dominate in the early summer season (May-June). On decadal or longer time scales, the SDM dominates for the mature monsoon (July-August). Better understanding the physical mechanisms underlying the SDM and the EHP effects, the local emission and transport of aerosols from surrounding deserts and arid-regions, and their interaction with monsoon water cycle dynamics are important in providing better prediction and assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation of the Asian monsoon

On the Origin of Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode

2000-01-01

The notion that the continental-scale land-sea contrast is the main reason that monsoon circulation exists has been a long-held belief. The purpose of this paper is to point out that this notion should be substantially modified. The central idea of this notion states that in summer, radiative heating of the continent, say Asia, gives rise to a continental-scale thermal low and surrounding the thermal low in its southeast direction the low level wind flows in from south-west. This low-level inflow creates a convergence of moisture, which maintains the cumulus convection. And in winter, radiative cooling of continent gives rise to a thermal high and to its southeast the low-level wind is from northeast. The mechanism in this interpretation does undoubtedly exist. However, this mechanism, though believed to be the main driving force of monsoon, has not been tested in numerical experiments. There has been an increasing recognition in the recent years that monsoon is inextricably tied to the heating in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). We propose that the main cause of monsoon is ITCZ's being substantially away from the equator. A brief qualitative explanation of why the ITCZ can be a source of monsoon circulation can be offered based on the circulation field forced by the ITCZ heating. The existence of the ITCZ's does not always have to rely on land-sea contrast on the continental scale. This is hinted in the fact that in February the ITCZ close to Australia (and its associated monsoon circulation) covers a longitudinal range several times as long as that of Australia and thus cannot possibly be caused mainly by the land-sea contrast associated with Australia. Yet, this cannot be used as a proof that the ITCZ in the Asian summer monsoon is not mainly due to land-sea contrast. One of the purposes of this work is to provide a convincing proof. In this work the role of land-sea contrast in the origin of monsoon is examined through numerical simulation with the

Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions

PubMed Central

Liu, Fei; Chai, Jing; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Zhiyuan

2016-01-01

Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do. PMID:27063141

Seasonal evolution of the West African heat low: a climatological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavaysse, C.; Flamant, C.; Janicot, S.; Parker, D. J.; Lafore, J.-P.; Sultan, B.; Pelon, J.

2009-08-01

The West African heat low (WAHL), a region of high surface temperatures and low surface pressures, is a key element of the West African monsoon system. In this study, we propose a method to detect the WAHL in order to monitor its climatological seasonal displacement over West Africa during the period 1979-2001, using the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-40 reanalyses. The low-level atmospheric thickness (LLAT), a variable defined as the difference of geopotential heights at 700 and 925 hPa, is used to detect the dilatation of these levels generated by an increase of the temperature. We define grid points with 10% highest values of the LLAT as the WAHL. We show that our method reliably positions the WAHL over areas of high surface temperatures and low surface pressures, and that it is effective at detecting heat lows. In the course of the year, the climatological WAHL is shown to migrate north-westward from a position south of the Darfur mountains in the winter (November-March) to a location over the Sahara, between the Hoggar and the Atlas mountains, during the summer (June-September). The temperature tendency equation is used to investigate the processes controlling the displacement of the WAHL, and more particularly the heating at low levels. The specific period of the onset of the WAHL in its summer location over the Sahara (referred to as the Saharan heat low -SHL- onset) is also analysed during the 1984-2001 period, using complementary brightness temperature data from the European Union-funded Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS). The climatological onset of the SHL occurs around 20 June, i.e. just before the climatological monsoon onset date. The present study suggests that the onset of the WAHL occurs approximately 5 days before the monsoon onset for the 1984-2001 period. This is confirmed independently by comparing the SHL onset date and the monsoon onset date for the 1984-2001 period. The seasonal evolution of the WAHL for the

Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borah, Nabanita; Sukumarpillai, Abhilash; Sahai, Atul Kumar; Chattopadhyay, Rajib; Joseph, Susmitha; De, Soumyendu; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra; Kumar, Arun

2014-05-01

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borah, N.; Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; de, S.; Goswami, B.; Kumar, A.

2013-12-01

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

Monthly monsoon rainfall forecasting using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganti, Ravikumar

2014-10-01

Indian agriculture sector heavily depends on monsoon rainfall for successful harvesting. In the past, prediction of rainfall was mainly performed using regression models, which provide reasonable accuracy in the modelling and forecasting of complex physical systems. Recently, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been proposed as efficient tools for modelling and forecasting. A feed-forward multi-layer perceptron type of ANN architecture trained using the popular back-propagation algorithm was employed in this study. Other techniques investigated for modeling monthly monsoon rainfall include linear and non-linear regression models for comparison purposes. The data employed in this study include monthly rainfall and monthly average of the daily maximum temperature in the North Central region in India. Specifically, four regression models and two ANN model's were developed. The performance of various models was evaluated using a wide variety of standard statistical parameters and scatter plots. The results obtained in this study for forecasting monsoon rainfalls using ANNs have been encouraging. India's economy and agricultural activities can be effectively managed with the help of the availability of the accurate monsoon rainfall forecasts.

Impact of Interactive Aerosol on the African Easterly Jet in the NASA GEOS-5 Global Forecasting System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reale, O.; Lau, K. M.; da Silva, A.

2010-01-01

The real-time treatment of interactive realistically varying aerosol in a global operational forecasting system, as opposed to prescribed (fixed or climatologically varying) aerosols, is a very difficult challenge that only recently begins to be addressed. Experiment results from a recent version of the NASA GEOS-5 forecasting system, inclusive of interactive aerosol treatment, are presented in this work. Four sets of 30 5-day forecasts are initialized from a high quality set of analyses previously produced and documented to cover the period from 15 August to 16 September 2006, which corresponds to the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA) observing campaign. The four forecast sets are at two different horizontal resolutions and with and without interactive aerosol treatment. The net impact of aerosol, at times in which there is a strong dust outbreak, is a temperature increase at the dust level and decrease in the near-surface levels, in complete agreement with previous observational and modeling studies. Moreover, forecasts in which interactive aerosols are included depict an African Easterly (AEJ) at slightly higher elevation, and slightly displace northward, with respect to the forecasts in which aerosols are not include. The shift in the AEJ position goes in the direction of observations and agrees with previous results.

The role of East Asian monsoon system in shaping population divergence and dynamics of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica

PubMed Central

Yin, Hengxia; Yan, Xia; Shi, Yong; Qian, Chaoju; Li, Zhonghu; Zhang, Wen; Wang, Lirong; Li, Yi; Li, Xiaoze; Chen, Guoxiong; Li, Xinrong; Nevo, Eviatar; Ma, Xiao-Fei

2015-01-01

Both of the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the development of East Asian monsoon system (EAMS) could have comprehensively impacted the formation and evolution of Arid Central Asia (ACA). To understand how desert plants endemic to ACA responded to these two factors, we profiled the historical population dynamics and distribution range shift of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica (Tamaricaceae) based on species wide investigation of sequence variation of chloroplast DNA and nuclear ribosomal ITS. Phylogenetic analysis uncovered a deep divergence occurring at ca. 2.96 Mya between the western and eastern lineages of R. soongarica, and ecological niche modeling analysis strongly supported that the monsoonal climate could have fragmented its habitats in both glacial and interglacial periods and impelled its intraspecific divergence. Additionally, the population from the east monsoonal zone expanded rapidly, suggesting that the local monsoonal climate significantly impacted its population dynamics. The isolation by distance tests supported strong maternal gene flow along the direction of the East Asian winter monsoon, whose intensification induced the genetic admixture along the latitudinal populations of R. soongarica. Our results presented a new case that the development of EAMS had prominently impacted the intraspecific divergence and population dynamics of this desert plant. PMID:26510579

West African Monsoon dynamics in idealized simulations: the competitive roles of SST warming and CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaetani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Hourdin, Frederic; Bastin, Sophie; Braconnot, Pascale; Bony, Sandrine

2015-04-01

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is affected by large climate variability at different timescales, from interannual to multidecadal, with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts associated to climate-related rainfall variability, especially in the Sahelian belt. State-of-the-art coupled climate models still show poor ability in correctly simulating the WAM past variability and also a large spread is observed in future climate projections. In this work, the July-to-September (JAS) WAM variability in the period 1979-2008 is studied in AMIP-like simulations (SST-forced) from CMIP5. The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 concentration increasing are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4K warmer SST and a 4x CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show a dry response in Sahel to SST warming, with dryer conditions over western Sahel. On the contrary, wet conditions are observed when CO2 is increased, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel. The precipitation changes are associated to modifications in the regional atmospheric circulation: dry (wet) conditions are associated with reduced (increased) convergence in the lower troposphere, a southward (northward) shift of the African Easterly Jet, and a weaker (stronger) Tropical Easterly Jet. The co-variability between global SST and WAM precipitation is also investigated, highlighting a reorganization of the main co-variability modes. Namely, in the 4xCO2 simulation the influence of Tropical Pacific is dominant, while it is reduced in the 4K simulation, which also shows an increased coupling with the eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The above results suggest a competitive action of SST warming and CO2 increasing on the WAM climate variability, with opposite effects on precipitation. The combination of the observed positive and negative response in precipitation, with wet conditions in central-eastern Sahel and dry conditions in western Sahel, is consistent with the

Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzi, Coralie; Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Maria; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

2016-04-01

In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4,200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4,200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: The Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzi, Coralie; Sanchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

2015-10-01

In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

Monsoon control on faunal composition of planktic foraminifera in the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munz, P.; Siccha, M.; Kucera, M.; Schulz, H.

2013-12-01

Being among the most productive open ocean basins, sea surface properties in the Arabian Sea are highly influenced by the seasonal reversal of the monsoonal wind system. During boreal summer wind direction from the southwest induces strong upwelling along the coast off Somalia and Oman. Vertical transport of cold and nutrient-rich deep-water masses by Ekman pumping reduces sea surface temperature and triggers primary productivity. Reversed cold and dry winds during boreal winter lead to cooling of the surface- and subsurface-waters and hereby to deep convective mixing, bringing nutrients into the photic zone and enhancing primary productivity especially in the northern part of the Arabian Sea. Here, we study the influence of the different seasonal monsoon systems on the faunal composition of planktic foraminifera, in order to improve our understanding how the faunal community record is influenced by the respective monsoon systems and to provide baseline information for the reconstruction of ancient monsoon conditions. We used published core-top foraminiferal databases, significantly increased in spatial coverage by new contributions. The resulting combined database consists of 413 core-top samples spanning the Arabian Sea and the Northern Indian Ocean to 10° S. The seasonal sea surface properties at these stations could be binned into categories of different monsoon influence, based on satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentrations. Interpretation of species response to environmental control is based on multivariate statistical analyses of each of the categorical bins. First results show that samples influenced only by winter- and summer monsoon conditions, respectively, feature specifiable faunal composition. Globigerina bulloides is mostly associated with summer upwelling conditions, whereas Globigerina falconensis and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata are typical species of winter conditions. Redundancy analysis reveals preferences of species populations with

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Observed Regional Climate Variability and Evaluating Model Performance: Focus on North African Rainfall in CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Notaro, M.; Yu, Y.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2016-12-01

North (N.) African rainfall is characterized by dramatic interannual to decadal variability with serious socio-economic ramifications. The Sahel and West African Monsoon (WAM) region experienced a dramatic shift to persistent drought by the late 1960s, while the Horn of Africa (HOA) underwent drying since the 1990s. Large disagreementregarding the dominant oceanic drivers of N. African hydrologic variability exists among modeling studies, leading to notable spread in Sahel summer rainfall projections for this century among Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the oceanic drivers of N. African rainfall and establish a benchmark for model evaluation, a statistical method, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment, is validated and applied to observations and a control run from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). This study represents the first time that the dominant oceanic drivers of N. African rainfall were evaluated and systematically compared between observations and model simulations. CESM and the observations consistently agree that tropical oceanic modes are the dominant controls of N. African rainfall. During the monsoon season, CESM and observations agree that an anomalously warm eastern tropical Pacific shifts the Walker Circulation eastward, with its descending branch supporting Sahel drying. CESM and the observations concur that a warmer tropical eastern Atlantic favors a southward-shifted Intertropical Convergence Zone, which intensifies WAM monsoonal rainfall. An observed reduction in Sahel rainfall accompanies this enhanced WAM rainfall, yet is confined to the Atlantic in CESM. During the short rains, both observations and CESM indicate that a positive phase of tropical Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode [anomalously warm (cold) in western (eastern) Indian] enhances HOA rainfall. The observed IOD impacts are limited to the short rains, while the simulated impacts are year-round.

Monsoon Convective During the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment: Observations from Ground-Based Radar and the TRMM Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cifelli, Rob; Rickenbach, Tom; Halverson, Jeff; Keenan, Tom; Kucera, Paul; Atkinson, Lester; Fisher, Brad; Gerlach, John; Harris, Kathy; Kaufman, Cristina

1999-01-01

A main goal of the recent South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was to study convective processes associated with the onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon. The NASA TOGA C-band scanning radar was deployed on the Chinese research vessel Shi Yan #3 for two 20 day cruises, collecting dual-Doppler measurements in conjunction with the BMRC C-Pol dual-polarimetric radar on Dongsha Island. Soundings and surface meteorological data were also collected with an NCAR Integrated Sounding System (ISS). This experiment was the first major tropical field campaign following the launch of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. These observations of tropical oceanic convection provided an opportunity to make comparisons between surface radar measurements and the Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite in an oceanic environment. Nearly continuous radar operations were conducted during two Intensive Observing Periods (IOPS) straddling the onset of the monsoon (5-25 May 1998 and 5-25 June 1998). Mesoscale lines of convection with widespread regions of both trailing and forward stratiform precipitation were observed following the onset of the active monsoon in the northern South China Sea region. The vertical structure of the convection during periods of strong westerly flow and relatively moist environmental conditions in the lower to mid-troposphere contrasted sharply with convection observed during periods of low level easterlies, weak shear, and relatively dry conditions in the mid to upper troposphere. Several examples of mesoscale convection will be shown from the ground (ship)-based and spaceborne radar data during times of TRMM satellite overpasses. Examples of pre-monsoon convection, characterized by isolated cumulonimbus and shallow, precipitating congestus clouds, will also be discussed.

Late Holocene anti-phase change in the East Asian summer and winter monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Shugang; Wang, Xulong; Roberts, Helen M.; Duller, Geoff A. T.; Cheng, Peng; Lu, Yanchou; An, Zhisheng

2018-05-01

Changes in East Asian summer and winter monsoon intensity have played a pivotal role in the prosperity and decline of society in the past, and will be important for future climate scenarios. However, the phasing of changes in the intensity of East Asian summer and winter monsoons on millennial and centennial timescales during the Holocene is unclear, limiting our ability to understand the factors driving past and future changes in the monsoon system. Here, we present a high resolution (up to multidecadal) loess record for the last 3.3 ka from the southern Chinese Loess Plateau that clearly demonstrates the relationship between changes in the intensity of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons, particularly at multicentennial scales. At multimillennial scales, the East Asian summer monsoon shows a steady weakening, while the East Asian winter monsoon intensifies continuously. At multicentennial scales, a prominent ∼700-800 yr cycle in the East Asian summer and winter monsoon intensity is observed, and here too the two monsoons are anti-phase. We conclude that multimillennial changes are driven by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, while multicentennial changes can be correlated with solar activity and changing strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Borah, N.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; De, S.; Goswami, B. N.; Kumar, Arun

2014-05-01

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

Exploring African Aridification and Wet/dry Cycles Over the Last 3 MA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, C.; Tierney, J. E.; DeMenocal, P. B.

2011-12-01

Marine sediment records document a gradual increase in aeolian dust supply from Africa over the last 3 Ma in the Atlantic, Gulf of Aden, and Mediterranean (Larrasoaña et al., 2003, deMenocal 2004), with 'steps' in period and amplitude at ~2.8 Ma, ~1.7 Ma, and ~1.0 Ma. However, Mediterranean sapropel sequences document regular, precession-paced wet/dry cycles from changes in the strength of the African monsoon and Nile runoff since at least the Miocene (Rossignol-Strick, 1985, Krijgsman et al., 1995, Lourens et al., 1996). The influence of long-term drying trends in Africa on the movements and strength of the African monsoon over the late Pliocene and Pleistocene is not understood. We have constructed a biomarker-based African climate record by analyzing concentrations and δ D from long-chain, saturated fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) in eastern Mediterranean ODP Site 967 sediments from 2.8 - 3.1 Ma and 1.6 - 1.8 Ma. Long-chain fatty acids are produced in the leaf waxes of terrestrial plants (Eglinton and Hamilton, 1967) and are transported to marine sediments via aeolian and fluvial action. Sapropel sediments corresponding with precession minima and enhanced Nile River runoff (Rossignol-Strick, 1985) contain much higher concentrations of FAMEs than carbonate-rich sediments. Comparisons of the two intervals will be presented to illustrate changes in monsoon strength from 3 Ma to 1.6 Ma.

Influence of inland aerosol loading on the monsoon over Indian subcontinent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satyanarayana, M.; Krishnakumar, V.; Mahadevan Pillai, V. P.; Radhakrishnan, S. R.; Raghunath, K.

2008-12-01

The monsoon water cycle is the lifeline to over 60% of the world's population. The study on the behavioral change of Indian monsoon due to aerosol loading will help for the better understanding of Indian Monsoon. Aerosol system influences the atmosphere in two ways; it affects directly the radiation budget and indirectly provides condensation nuclei required for the clouds. The precipitation of the clouds in the monsoon season depends on the microphysical properties of the clouds. The effect of aerosol on cirrus clouds is being looked into through this work as an effort to study the role of aerosol on Indian Monsoon. The microphysical properties of high altitude clouds were obtained from the ground based lidar experiments at a low latitude station in the Indian subcontinent. Measurements during the Indian monsoon period from the inland station National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL) Gadanki (13.5_ N, 79.2_ E), Tirupati, India were used for the investigation. The depolarization characteristics of the cirrus clouds were measured and the correlation between the depolarization and the precipitation characteristics were studied. The results obtained over a period of one year from January 1998 to December 1998 were presented.

Process-level improvements in CMIP5 models and their impact on tropical variability, the Southern Ocean, and monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauer, Axel; Jones, Colin; Eyring, Veronika; Evaldsson, Martin; Hagemann, Stefan; Mäkelä, Jarmo; Martin, Gill; Roehrig, Romain; Wang, Shiyu

2018-01-01

The performance of updated versions of the four earth system models (ESMs) CNRM, EC-Earth, HadGEM, and MPI-ESM is assessed in comparison to their predecessor versions used in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is applied to evaluate selected climate phenomena in the models against observations. This is the first systematic application of the ESMValTool to assess and document the progress made during an extensive model development and improvement project. This study focuses on the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the West African monsoon (WAM), the coupled equatorial climate, and Southern Ocean clouds and radiation, which are known to exhibit systematic biases in present-day ESMs. The analysis shows that the tropical precipitation in three out of four models is clearly improved. Two of three updated coupled models show an improved representation of tropical sea surface temperatures with one coupled model not exhibiting a double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Simulated cloud amounts and cloud-radiation interactions are improved over the Southern Ocean. Improvements are also seen in the simulation of the SAM and WAM, although systematic biases remain in regional details and the timing of monsoon rainfall. Analysis of simulations with EC-Earth at different horizontal resolutions from T159 up to T1279 shows that the synoptic-scale variability in precipitation over the SAM and WAM regions improves with higher model resolution. The results suggest that the reasonably good agreement of modeled and observed mean WAM and SAM rainfall in lower-resolution models may be a result of unrealistic intensity distributions.

Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

2009-12-01

A large number of human settlements on the Nepal Himalayas are situated either on old landslide mass or on landslide-prone areas. As a result, a great number of people are affected by large- and small-scale landslides all over the Himalayas especially during monsoon periods. In Nepal, only in the half monsoon period (June 10 to August 15), 70, 50 and 68 people were killed from landslides in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. In this context, this paper highlights monsoon rainfall and their implications in the Nepal Himalaya. In Nepal, monsoon is major source of rainfall in summer and approximately 80% of the annual total rainfall occurs from June to September. The measured values of mean annual precipitation in Nepal range from a low of approximately 250 mm at area north of the Himalaya to many areas exceeding 6,000 mm. The mean annual rainfall varying between 1500 mm and 2500 mm predominate over most of the country. In Nepal, the daily distribution of precipitation during rainy season is also uneven. Sometime 10% of the total annual precipitation can occur in a single day. Similarly, 50% total annual rainfall also can occur within 10 days of monsoon. This type of uneven distribution plays an important role in triggering many landslides in Nepal. When spatial distribution of landslides was evaluated from record of more than 650 landslides, it is found that more landslides events were concentrated at central Nepal in the area of high mean annual rainfall. When monsoon rainfall and landslide relationship was taken into consideration, it was noticed that a considerable number of landslides were triggered in the Himalaya by continuous rainfall of 3 to 90 days. It has been noticed that continuous rainfall of few days (5 days or 7 days or 10 days) are usually responsible for landsliding in the Nepal Himalaya. Monsoon rains usually fall with interruptions of 2-3 days and are generally characterized by low intensity and long duration. Thus, there is a strong role of

Pleistocene Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yirgaw, D. G.; Hathorne, E. C.; Giosan, L.; Collett, T. S.; Sijingeo, A. V.; Nath, B. N.; Frank, M.

2014-12-01

The past variability of the Indian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea. Here we investigate proxies for fresh water input and runoff in a region of strong monsoon precipitation that is a major moisture source for the east Asian Monsoon. A sediment core obtained by the IODP vessel JOIDES Resolution and a gravity core from the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea are used to examine the past monsoon variability on the Indian sub-continent and directly over the ocean. The current dataset covers the last glacial and deglacial but will eventually provide a Pleistocene record. We utilise the ecological habitats of G. sacculifer and N. dutertrei to investigate the freshwater-induced stratification with paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses to estimate seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). During the last 60 kyrs, Ba/Ca ratios and δ18Osw values generally agree well between the two cores and suggest the weakest surface runoff and monsoon during the LGM and strongest monsoon during the Holocene. The difference in δ18O between the species, interpreted as a proxy for upper ocean stratification, implies stratification developed around 37 ka and remained relatively constant during the LGM, deglacial and Holocene. To investigate monsoon variability for intervals in the past, single shell Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses have been conducted. Mg/Ca ratios from individual shells of N. dutertrei suggest relatively small changes in temperature. However, individual N. dutertrei δ18O differ greatly between the mid-Holocene and samples from the LGM and a nearby core top. The mid-Holocene individuals have a greater range and large skew towards negative values indicating greater fresh water influence.

Study of aerosol direct and indirect effects and auto-conversion processes over the West African monsoon region using a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salah, Zeinab; Shalaby, Ahmed; Steiner, Allison L.; Zakey, Ashraf S.; Gautam, Ritesh; Abdel Wahab, Mohamed M.

2018-02-01

This study assesses the direct and indirect effects of natural and anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., black carbon and sulfate) over West and Central Africa during the West African monsoon (WAM) period (June-July-August). We investigate the impacts of aerosols on the amount of cloudiness, the influences on the precipitation efficiency of clouds, and the associated radiative forcing (direct and indirect). Our study includes the implementation of three new formulations of auto-conversion parameterization [namely, the Beheng (BH), Tripoli and Cotton (TC) and Liu and Daum (R6) schemes] in RegCM4.4.1, besides the default model's auto-conversion scheme (Kessler). Among the new schemes, BH reduces the precipitation wet bias by more than 50% over West Africa and achieves a bias reduction of around 25% over Central Africa. Results from detailed sensitivity experiments suggest a significant path forward in terms of addressing the long-standing issue of the characteristic wet bias in RegCM. In terms of aerosol-induced radiative forcing, the impact of the various schemes is found to vary considerably (ranging from -5 to -25 W m-2).

Role of Madden-Julian Oscillation in Modulating Monsoon Retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Madhu; Bhatla, R.

2018-01-01

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on a seasonal scale. The impact of MJO on different epochs, viz., onset, advance and active break is well known. There can be several MJO events in a season and it may enhance/suppress the retreat process. The present study aims to find the MJO-modulated retreat of monsoon. The results suggest that the fastest retreat of monsoon occurred in the years 2007 and 2008, while slowest retreat of monsoon occurred in the year 1979. The retreat features of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are investigated with the MJO phase and amplitude variations. The daily MJO indices for the retreat period 1979-2016 are used. The results reveal that the MJO strength decreases during the transition phase (i.e., summer monsoon to winter monsoon transition). The monsoon retreat is most favored by strong MJO phase 4 and phase 5. The fastest retreat of monsoon occurred in the years 2007 and 2008, while the slowest retreat of monsoon occurred in the year 1979. There exists a weak positive correlation between the MJO amplitude and the retreat period of monsoon. The monsoon retreat is most favored by strong MJO phase 4 and phase 5. The MJO amplitude variations during MJO phases 1-8 suggest that the MJO amplitude decreases with increase in retreat period. The MJO-modulated retreat results in slow retreat of monsoon, whereas fast and normal retreat of monsoon is seen on rare occasions. Weak MJO events lead to normal retreat of monsoon.

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2003-01-01

Prediction of climate relies on models, and better model prediction depends on good model physics. Improving model physics requires the maximal utilization of climate data of the past, present and future. CEOP provides the first example of a comprehensive, integrated global and regional data set, consisting of globally gridded data, reference site in-situ observations, model location time series (MOLTS), and integrated satellite data for a two-year period covering two complete annual cycles of 2003-2004. The monsoon regions are the most important socio-economically in terms of devastation by floods and droughts, and potential impacts from climate change md fluctuatinns nf the hydrologic cyc!e. Scientifically, it is most challenging, because of complex interactions of atmosphere, land and oceans, local vs. remote forcings in contributing to climate variability and change in the region. Given that many common features, and physical teleconnection exist among different monsoon regions, an international research focus on monsoon must be coordinated and sustained. Current models of the monsoon are grossly inadequate for regional predictions. For improvement, models must be confronted with relevant observations, and model physic developers must be made to be aware of the wealth of information from existing climate data, field measurements, and satellite data that can be used to improve models. Model transferability studles must be conducted. CIMS is a major initiative under CEOP to engage the modeling and the observational communities to join in a coordinated effort to study the monsoons. The objectives of CIMS are (a) To provide a better understanding of fundamental physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle, and intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions around the world and (b) To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. In this talk, I will present the basic concepts of CIMS and the

The Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meehl, G.A.; Arblaster, J.M.

Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomaliesmore » in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1--2 C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1--2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year.« less

Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part I: summer monsoon climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Douville, Hervé

2011-10-01

The CNRM atmospheric general circulation model Arpege-Climat is relaxed towards atmospheric reanalyses outside the 10°S-32°N 30°W-50°E domain in order to disentangle the regional versus large-scale sources of climatological biases and interannual variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). On the one hand, the main climatological features of the monsoon, including the spatial distribution of summer precipitation, are only weakly improved by the nudging, thereby suggesting the regional origin of the Arpege-Climat biases. On the other hand, the nudging technique is relatively efficient to control the interannual variability of the WAM dynamics, though the impact on rainfall variability is less clear. Additional sensitivity experiments focusing on the strong 1994 summer monsoon suggest that the weak sensitivity of the model biases is not an artifact of the nudging design, but the evidence that regional physical processes are the main limiting factors for a realistic simulation of monsoon circulation and precipitation in the Arpege-Climat model. Sensitivity experiments to soil moisture boundary conditions are also conducted and highlight the relevance of land-atmosphere coupling for the amplification of precipitation biases. Nevertheless, the land surface hydrology is not the main explanation for the model errors that are rather due to deficiencies in the atmospheric physics. The intraseasonal timescale and the model internal variability are discussed in a companion paper.

Interannual variability of Indian monsoon rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paolino, D. A.; Shukla, J.

1984-01-01

The interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon and its relationships with other atmospheric fluctuations were studied in hopes of gaining some insight into the predicability of the rainfall. Rainfall data for 31 meteorological subdivisions over India were provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Fifty-three years of seasonal mean anomaly sea-level pressure (SLP) fields were used to determine if any relationships could be detected between fluctuations in Northern Hemisphere surface pressure and Indian monsoon rainfall. Three month running mean sea-level pressure anomalies at Darwin (close to one of the centers of the Southern Oscillation) were compiled for months preceding and following extreme years for rainfall averaged over all of India. Anomalies are small before the monsoon, but are quite large in months following the summer season. However, there is a large decrease in Darwin pressure for months preceding a heavy monsoon, while a deficient monsoon is preceded by a sharp increase in Darwin pressure. If a time series is constructed of the tendency of Darwin SLP between the Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) and a correlation coefficient is computed between it and 81 years of rainfall average over all of India, one gets a C. C. of -.46, which is higher than any other previously computed predictor of the monsoon rainfall. This relationship can also be used to make a qualitative forecast for rainfall over the whole of India by considering the sign of the tendency in extreme monsoon years.

Simulation of the Central Indian Ocean Mode in CESM: Implications for the Indian Summer Monsoon System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Lei; Murtugudde, Raghu; Neale, Richard B.; Jochum, Markus

2018-01-01

The simulation of the Indian summer monsoon and its pronounced intraseasonal component in a modern climate model remains a significant challenge. Recently, using observations and reanalysis products, the central Indian Ocean (CIO) mode was found to be a natural mode in the ocean-atmosphere coupled system and also shown to have a close mechanistic connection with the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO). In this study, the simulation of the actual CIO mode in historical Community Earth System Model (CESM) outputs is assessed by comparing with observations and reanalysis products. The simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a major component of tropical intraseasonal variabilities (ISVs), is satisfactory. However, the CIO mode is not well captured in any of the CESM simulations considered here. The force and response relationship between the atmosphere and the ocean associated with the CIO mode in CESM is opposite to that in nature. The simulated meridional gradient of large-scale zonal winds is too weak, which precludes the necessary energy conversion from the mean state to the ISVs and cuts off the energy source to MISO in CESM. The inability of CESM to reproduce the CIO mode seen clearly in nature highlights the CIO mode as a new dynamical framework for diagnosing the deficiencies in Indian summer monsoon simulation in climate models. The CIO mode is a coupled metric for evaluating climate models and may be a better indicator of a model's skill to accurately capture the tropical multiscale interactions over subseasonal to interannual timescales.

Documentary reconstruction of monsoon rainfall variability over western India, 1781-1860

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamson, George C. D.; Nash, David J.

2014-02-01

Investigations into the climatic forcings that affect the long-term variability of the Indian summer monsoon are constrained by a lack of reliable rainfall data prior to the late nineteenth century. Extensive qualitative and quantitative meteorological information for the pre-instrumental period exists within historical documents, although these materials have been largely unexplored. This paper presents the first reconstruction of monsoon variability using documentary sources, focussing on western India for the period 1781-1860. Three separate reconstructions are generated, for (1) Mumbai, (2) Pune and (3) the area of Gujarat bordering the Gulf of Khambat. A composite chronology is then produced from the three reconstructions, termed the Western India Monsoon Rainfall reconstruction (WIMR). The WIMR exhibits four periods of generally deficient monsoon rainfall (1780-1785, 1799-1806, 1830-1838 and 1845-1857) and three of above-normal rainfall (1788-1794, 1813-1828 and 1839-1844). The WIMR shows good correspondence with a dendroclimatic drought reconstruction for Kerala, although agreement with the western Indian portion of the tree-ring derived Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas is less strong. The reconstruction is used to examine the long-term relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon rainfall over western India. This exhibits peaks and troughs in correlation over time, suggesting a regular long-term fluctuation. This may be an internal oscillation in the ENSO-monsoon system or may be related to volcanic aerosol forcings. Further reconstructions of monsoon rainfall are necessary to validate this. The study highlights uncertainties in existing published rainfall records for 1817-1846 for western India.

Variability of the Somali Current and eddies during the southwest monsoon regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trott, Corinne B.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Murty, V. S. N.

2017-09-01

The meso-scale eddies and currents in the Arabian Sea are analyzed using different satellite observations, Simple Oceanic Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis, and Ocean Reanalysis System 4 (ORAS4) from 1993 to 2016 to investigate the impacts of Southwest (SW) Monsoon strength on Somali Current (SC) mesoscale circulations such as the Great Whirl (GW), the Socotra Eddy (SE), the Southern Gyre (SG), and smaller eddies. Increased Ekman pumping during stronger SW monsoons strengthens coastal upwelling along the Somali coast. The Arabian Sea basin-wide anticyclonic circulation and presence of the GW form mesoscale circulation patterns favourable to advection of upwelled waters eastward into the central Arabian Sea. In September, after the SW monsoon winds reach peak strength in July and August, a higher number of discrete anticyclonic eddies with higher (> 20 cm) sea surface height anomalies develop in strong and normal intensity SW monsoon seasons than weaker SW monsoon seasons.

Seasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordoni, S.; Walker, J. M.

2017-12-01

Here, we analyze seasonal changes in the dynamics and thermodynamics of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) in atmospheric reanalysis data using a threshold-independent index of monsoon onset we have recently introduced (Walker and Bordoni 2016). We seek to evaluate the extent to which emerging theoretical frameworks are consistent with the observed monsoon. Climatological composites reveal that at monsoon onset, an abrupt strengthening and northward migration of the maximum in sub-cloud equivalent potential temperature accompany the rapid northward movement of the monsoon rainbelt. These changes are driven by changes in near-surface specific humidity, rather than changes in near-surface temperature, whose gradient actually decreases at monsoon onset. These findings are inconsistent with the traditional paradigm of the monsoon as a sea breeze circulation and confirm the convectively coupled view of the SASM circulation as an energetically-direct overturning circulation as more fundamental for the understanding of monsoon dynamics. Providing further support to this emerging view, we show that the SASM sector mean circulation at monsoon onset undergoes a rapid transition from an equinox circulation with a pair of tropical overturning cells, to a solstice circulation dominated by a strong cross-equatorial monsoonal cell and negligible overturning cell in the northern hemisphere.This transition corresponds to a transition in the leading order momentum budget, from an eddy-dominated equinox regime to a highly nonlinear monsoon regime which approaches conservation of angular momentum. These transitions are similar to those seen in idealized zonally symmetric studies of aquaplanet monsoons, suggesting that eddy-mean flow feedbacks identified in those studies may be acting in the SASM sector, and may contribute to the abruptness of the SASM onset. Our findings highlight the importance of nonlinear dynamics in the seasonal evolution of the SASM circulation and suggest

An overview of dry-wet climate variability among monsoon-westerly regions and the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Weihong; Ding, Ting; Hu, Haoran; Lin, Xiang; Qin, Aimin

2009-07-01

Climate in mainland China can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the

Evaluating the influence of antecedent soil moisture on variability of the North American Monsoon precipitation in the coupled MM5/VIC modeling system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Chunmei; Leung, Lai R.; Gochis, David

2009-11-29

The influence of antecedent soil moisture on North American monsoon system (NAMS) precipitation variability was explored using the MM5 mesoscale model coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. Sensitivity experiments were performed with extreme wet and dry initial soil moisture conditions for both the 1984 wet monsoon year and the 1989 dry year. The MM5-VIC model reproduced the key features of NAMS in 1984 and 1989 especially over northwestern Mexico. Our modeling results indicate that the land surface has memory of the initial soil wetness prescribed at the onset of the monsoon that persists over most ofmore » the region well into the monsoon season (e.g. until August). However, in contrast to the classical thermal contrast concept, where wetter soils lead to cooler surface temperatures, less land-sea thermal contrast, weaker monsoon circulations and less precipitation, the coupled model consistently demonstrated a positive soil moisture – precipitation feedback. Specifically, anomalously wet premonsoon soil moisture always lead to enhanced monsoon precipitation, and the reverse was also true. The surface temperature changes induced by differences in surface energy flux partitioning associated with pre-monsoon soil moisture anomalies changed the surface pressure and consequently the flow field in the coupled model, which in turn changed moisture convergence and, accordingly, precipitation patterns. Both the largescale circulation change and local land-atmospheric interactions in response to premonsoon soil moisture anomalies play important roles in the coupled model’s positive soil moisture monsoon precipitation feedback. However, the former may be sensitive to the strength and location of the thermal anomalies, thus leaving open the possibility of both positive and negative soil moisture precipitation feedbacks.« less

Hydrological regions in monsoon Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondoh, Akihiko; Budi Harto, Agung; Eleonora, Runtunuwu; Kojiri, Toshiharu

2004-11-01

Monsoon Asia is characterized by its diversity of natural and social environments. These environments range from humid tropics to arid regions and there exist associated various hydrological phenomena. This paper attempts to characterize the hydrological regions of monsoon Asia based on the water budget calculated using grid-based global datasets. A map of hydrological regions is created by ranking the value of water surplus and deficit. A humid zone with large water surplus extending from Southeast Asia to the Japanese archipelago, rapid transition from humid to arid environments in eastern China, and an arid region surrounded by a humid region in continental Southeast Asia are the most remarkable features in monsoon Asia. The map reveals that an essential characteristic of monsoon Asia is the proximity of the arid and humid environments. Many water problems and water management practices in a region can be easily understood by plotting them on a map. The boundaries of several large river basins are superimposed on the map, and examined for the water budget and flow regimes. The results are found to explain the regional characteristics of the seasonal runoff regimes satisfactorily. The importance of using a spatial framework for the comparative hydrological study in Monsoon Asia is highlighted.

Maintenance of Summer Monsoon Circulations: A Planetary-Scale Perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang

2003-06-01

The monsoon circulation, which is generally considered to be driven by the landmass-ocean thermal contrast, like a gigantic land-sea breeze circulation, exhibits a phase reversal in its vertical structure; a monsoon high aloft over a continental thermal low is juxtaposed with a midoceanic trough underlaid by an oceanic anticyclone. This classic monsoon circulation model is well matched by the monsoon circulation depicted with the observational data prior to the First Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Global Experiment (FGGE). However, synthesizing findings of the global circulation portrayed with the post-FGGE data, it was found that some basic features of major monsoon circulations in Asia, North America, South America, and Australia differ from those of the classic monsoon circulation model. Therefore, a revision of the classic monsoon theory is suggested. With four different wave regimes selected to fit the horizontal dimensions of these monsoon circulations, basic features common to all four major monsoons are illustrated in terms of diagnostic analyses of the velocity potential maintenance equation (which relates diabatic heating and velocity potential) and the streamfunction budget (which links velocity potential and streamfunction) in these wave regimes. It is shown that a monsoon circulation is actually driven by the east-west differential heating and maintained dynamically by a balance between a vorticity source and advection. This dynamic balance is reflected by a spatial quadrature relationship between the monsoon divergent circulation and the monsoon high (low) at upper (lower) levels.

Assessment of the 1997-1998 Asian Monsoon Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.

1999-01-01

Using State-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analysis of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the Asian monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions. it is noted that some subcontinental regions such as all-India, or arbitrarily chosen land regions over East Asia, while important socio-economically, are not near the centers of influence from El Nino, hence are not necessarily representative of the response of the entire monsoon region to El Nino. The observed 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies attributable to basin- scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19%, leaving about 47% due to internal dynamics. Also noted is that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also monsoon regional coupled processes and their modulation by long-term climate change.

Observational Analysis of Two Contrasting Monsoon Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karri, S.; Ahmad, R.; Sujata, P.; Jose, S.; Sreenivas, G.; Maurya, D. K.

2014-11-01

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall contributes about 75 % of the total annual rainfall and exhibits considerable interannual variations. The agricultural economy of the country depends mainly on the monsoon rainfall. The long-range forecast of the monsoon rainfall is, therefore of significant importance in agricultural planning and other economic activities of the country. There are various parameters which influence the amount of rainfall received during the monsoon. Some of the important parameters considered by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the study of monsoon are Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), moisture content of the atmosphere, zonal wind speed, low level vorticity, pressure gradient etc. Compared to the Long Period Average (LPA) value of rain fall, the country as a whole received higher amount of rainfall in June, 2013 (34 % more than LPA). The same month showed considerable decrease next year as the amount of rainfall received was around 43 % less compared to LPA. This drastic difference of monsoon prompted to study the behaviour of some of the monsoon relevant parameters. In this study we have considered five atmospheric parameters as the indicators of monsoon behaviour namely vertical relative humidity, OLR, aerosol optical depth (AOD), wind at 850 hPa and mean sea level pressure (MSLP). In the initial analysis of weekly OLR difference for year 2013 and 2014 shows positive values in the month of May over north-western parts of India (region of heat low). This should result in a weaker monsoon in 2014. This is substantiated by the rainfall data received for various stations over India. Inference made based on the analysis of RH profiles coupled with AOD values is in agreement with the rainfall over the corresponding stations.

On Winning the Race for Predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, Bhupendra

2013-03-01

Skillful prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) one season in advance remains a ``grand challenge'' for the climate science community even though such forecasts have tremendous socio-economic implications over the region. Continued poor skill of the ocean-atmosphere coupled models in predicting ISMR is an enigma in the backdrop when these models have high skill in predicting seasonal mean rainfall over the rest of the Tropics. Here, I provide an overview of the fundamental processes responsible for limited skill of climate models and outline a framework for achieving the limit on potential predictability within a reasonable time frame. I also show that monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO) act as building blocks of the Asian monsoon and provide a bridge between the two problems, the potential predictability limit and the simulation of seasonal mean climate. The correlation between observed ISMR and ensemble mean of predicted ISMR (R) can still be used as a metric for forecast verification. Estimate of potential limit of predictability of Asian monsoon indicates that the highest achievable R is about 0.75. Improvements in climate models and data assimilation over the past one decade has slowly improved R from near zero a decade ago to about 0.4 currently. The race for achieving useful prediction can be won, if we can push this skill up to about 0.7. It requires focused research in improving simulations of MISO, monsoon seasonal cycle and ENSO-monsoon relationship by the climate models. In order to achieve this goal by 2015-16 timeframe, IITM is leading a Program called Monsoon Mission supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India (MoES). As improvement in skill of forecasts can come only if R & D is carried out on an operational modeling system, the Climate Forecast System of National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of NOAA, U.S.A has been selected as our base system. The Mission envisages building partnership between

Early forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon: case study 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

2017-04-01

The prior knowledge of dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon is of vital importance for the population of the Indian subcontinent. In May 2016 before monsoon season, India recorded its highest-ever temperature of 51C. Hot waves have decimated crops, killed livestock and left 330 million people without enough water. At the end of monsoon season the floods in Indian this year have also broken previous records. Severe and devastating rainfall poured down, triggering dams spilling and floods. Such extreme conditions pose the vital questions such as: When will the monsoon come? When will the monsoon withdraw? More lead time in monsoon forecast warning is crucial for taking appropriate decisions at various levels - from the farmer's field (e.g. plowing day, seeding) to the central government (e.g. managing water and energy resources, food procurement policies). The Indian Meteorological Department issues forecasts of onset of monsoon for Kerala state in South India on May 15-th. It does not give such predictions for the other 28 states of the country. Our study concerns the central part of India. We made the monsoon forecast using our recently developed method which focuses on Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon [1]. Our prediction relies on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity from both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. We performed both of our forecasts for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon for the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E). We predicted the monsoon arrival to the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E) on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. The prediction was made on May 6-th, 2016 [2], that is 40 days in advance of the date of the forecast. The actual monsoon arrival was June 17-th. In this day near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcame the critical values and the monsoon season started, that was confirmed by observations of meteorological stations located around the EG-region. We

The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, A. G.; Inness, P. M.; Slingo, J. M.

2005-04-01

The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the general-circulation model. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the general-circulation model, the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag-lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Niño. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Niño, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability.

Atmospheric 7Be Concentration Changes as a Possible New Indicator for Early Warning on Indian Monsoon Onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terzi, L.; Kalinowski, M.; Schoeppner, M.; kusmierczyk-michulec, J.

2017-12-01

With 80 radionuclide detector systems worldwide, the International Monitoring System (IMS) offers an unprecedented opportunity to use 7Be as an aerosol tracer for global atmospheric cell dynamics. Meteorological processes such as ENSO onset, ITCZ shift, location and progression of Hadley-Ferrel cell convergence zone (HFCZ) have been reconstructed using long term timeseries of ground based 7Be observations. Cross correlation of 7Be activity concentrations also demonstrated to serve as an early warning indicator for Indian monsoons showing a possible 30-day warning prior to monsoon onset (Terzi and Kalinowski, 2017). Here we present what role phenomena that we can observe with 7Be, namely ITCZ and HFCZ, play in monsoon formation and how the prediction of monsoon onset relates to ENSO prediction. Performance, lead time and reliability of 7Be as monsoon onset indicator are then compared to current meteorological indicators. Near surface 7Be activity concentrations may help address outstanding challenges in monsoon research by integrating a new perspective across disciplines.

The Plio-Pleistocene Evolution of the Indian Ocean Monsoonal System: Evidence from the Arabian Sea and East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, K. E.; Maslin, M. A.; Mackay, A. W.; Leng, M. J.; Kingston, J.; Deino, A.

2011-12-01

It is important to identify the teleconnections between high latitude forcing and tropical monsoonal circulation in order to understand climate change in East Africa during the Plio-Pleistocene. Here we present a record of aeolian dust transport to the Arabian Sea between approximately 2.9 and 2.3 million years ago (Ma), constructed from the high-resolution XRF scanning of sediment cores from ODP Sites 721 and 722. Variations in the delivery of aeolian dust to the Arabian Sea, reflected in normalised flux of titanium, show that monsoonal circulation prior to 2.6 Ma, and after 2.5 Ma, was highly variable and primarily driven by orbitally-forced changes in tropical summer insolation, strongly modulated by the 400,000 year cycle of orbital eccentricity. This is confirmed by the presence of lakes in the East African Rift Valley during key eccentricity maxima. The dust record is coupled with the analysis of a well-dated series of diatomite units from the Baringo-Bogoria Basin which document the rhythmic cycling of large, precessionally-driven freshwater lakes which periodically occupied the Central Kenyan Rift Valley between 2.7 and 2.58 Ma. Analysis of one of these lake sequences using stable oxygen isotope measurements of diatom silica, combined with the XRF analysis of whole-sample geochemistry, reveals that the deep lake phase was characterised by fluctuations in rainfall and lake depth over cycles lasting, on average, 1,400 years. The presence of these millennial-scale fluctuations is confirmed by evidence of abrupt climate cycles in the oceanic dust record from the Arabian Sea.

Initial results from the StratoClim aircraft campaign in the Asian Monsoon in summer 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rex, M.

2017-12-01

The Asian Monsoon System is one of the Earth's largest and most energetic weather systems. Monsoon rainfall is critical to feeding over a billion people in Asia and the monsoon circulation affects weather patterns over the entire northern hemisphere. The Monsoon also acts like an enormous elevator, pumping vast amounts of air and pollutants from the surface up to the tropopause region at levels above 16km altitude, from where air can ascend into the stratosphere, where it spreads globally. Thus the monsoon affects the chemical composition of the global tropopause region and the stratosphere, and hence plays a key role for the composition of the UTS. Dynamically the monsoon circulation leads to the formation of a large anticyclone at tropopause levels above South Asia - the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). Satellite images show a large cloud of aerosols directly above the monsoon, the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). In July to August 2017 the international research project StratoClim carried out the first in-situ aircraft measurements in the AMA and the ATAL with the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica. Around 8 scientific flights took place in the airspaces of Nepal, India and Bangladesh and have horizontally and vertically probed the AMA and have well characterized the ATAL along flight patterns that have been carefully designed by a theory, modelling and satellite data analysing team in the field. The aircraft campaign has been complemented by launches of research balloons from ground stations in Nepal, Bangladesh, China and Palau. The presentation will give an overview of the StratoClim project, the aircraft and balloon activities and initial results from the StratoClim Asian Monsoon campaign in summer 2017.

Hydrological and Vegetation Variability from Mediterranean Leaf Wax Biomarkers Before and After the Rise of East African C4 Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, C.; deMenocal, P. B.; Tierney, J. E.; Polissar, P. J.

2012-12-01

Terrestrial and marine paleoclimate records and changes in African fossil mammal taxa indicate that a transition towards more open, C4-dominated grasslands occurred in East Africa near 2 Ma. In contrast, the Mediterranean sapropel record documents pervasive precession-paced wet/dry cycles in the strength of the African monsoon and Nile runoff since at least the late Miocene. This study investigates whether the East African vegetation shift after 2 Ma was accompanied by a change in the monsoonal wet/dry cycle response to orbital precession forcing. We sampled eastern Mediterranean ODP Site 967 at 2-3 ka resolution in two 200 kyr intervals near 3.0 and 1.7 Ma. Nearly identical orbital configurations in these intervals allow us to compare mean conditions and orbital-paced variations before and after the 2 Ma transition. We used leaf wax biomarker concentrations and δD and δ13C compositions as proxies for monsoonal strength and vegetation type, and the δ18O composition of G. ruber as a proxy for Nile River runoff. Leaf wax biomarker concentrations varied over three orders of magnitude, with much higher concentrations in sapropels. During sapropel intervals, large-amplitude negative excursions occur in δDwax, δ13Cwax, and δ18Oruber, corresponding to a strengthened monsoon and less abundant C4 plants. Carbonate-rich intervals have positive isotope excursions indicating a weakened monsoon and more abundant C4 plants. The mean and variance of δDwax and δ13Cwax values are not significantly different between the 3.0 Ma and 1.7 Ma intervals indicating Northern Africa did not experience the vegetation and climate shifts observed in East Africa. While surprising, our finding suggests that the average monsoonal response to precession forcing, and corresponding vegetation variability, did not substantially change across the 2 Ma transition. This implies that North and East Africa exhibited different climate and vegetation behavior since 3 Ma.

Continental drift and plateau uplift control origination and evolution of Asian and Australian monsoons.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaodong; Dong, Buwen; Yin, Zhi-Yong; Smith, Robin S; Guo, Qingchun

2017-01-13

Evolutions of Asian and Australian monsoons have important significance for understanding the past global change but are still a controversial subject. Here, we explore systematically the effects of plate movement and plateau uplift on the formation and evolution of the Asian and Australian monsoons by numerical simulations based on land-sea distributions and topographic conditions for five typical geological periods during the Cenozoic. Our results suggest that the timings and causes of formation of the monsoons in South Asia, East Asia and northern Australia are different. The Indian Subcontinent, which was located in the tropical Southern Hemisphere in the Paleocene, was influenced by the austral monsoon system simulated at that time. Once it moved to the tropical Northern Hemisphere in the Eocene, the South Asian monsoon established and remained persistently thereafter. However, the monsoons of East Asia and northern Australia did not appear until the Miocene. The establishment of the simulated low-latitude South Asian (northern Australian) monsoon appeared to have strongly depended on the location of mainland India (Australia), associated with northward plate motion, without much relation to the plateau uplift. On the contrary, the establishment of the mid-latitude East Asian monsoon was mainly controlled by the uplift of Tibetan plateau.

Summer Monsoon, Kalahari Desert, Africa

NASA Image and Video Library

1992-11-01

STS052-152-047 (22 Oct- 1 Nov 1992) --- The Kalahari Desert had not seen any significant rainfall for months before the launch of STS-52. Here, Shuttle astronauts have captured the onset of the (Southern Hemisphere) summer monsoon over the Kalahari Desert, as illustrated by the large thunderstorm towers poking up through the sun's terminator. The summer monsoon, with its associated thunderstorms, generally lasts from November through March. Scientist observers of this area report that the summer monsoon contributes most of the annual rainfall to this environmentally sensitive area. Shuttle nadir position: 28.0 degrees south, 25.1 degrees east. The center of the scene is 22.0 degrees south, 25.0 degrees east, 16:20:04 GMT.

A persistent northern boundary of Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation over Central Asia during the Holocene.

PubMed

Ramisch, Arne; Lockot, Gregori; Haberzettl, Torsten; Hartmann, Kai; Kuhn, Gerhard; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Schimpf, Stefan; Schulte, Philipp; Stauch, Georg; Wang, Rong; Wünnemann, Bernd; Yan, Dada; Zhang, Yongzhan; Diekmann, Bernhard

2016-05-13

Extra-tropical circulation systems impede poleward moisture advection by the Indian Summer Monsoon. In this context, the Himalayan range is believed to insulate the south Asian circulation from extra-tropical influences and to delineate the northern extent of the Indian Summer Monsoon in central Asia. Paleoclimatic evidence, however, suggests increased moisture availability in the Early Holocene north of the Himalayan range which is attributed to an intensification of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Nevertheless, mechanisms leading to a surpassing of the Himalayan range and the northern maximum extent of summer monsoonal influence remain unknown. Here we show that the Kunlun barrier on the northern Tibetan Plateau [~36°N] delimits Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation during the Holocene. The presence of the barrier relocates the insulation effect 1,000 km further north, allowing a continental low intensity branch of the Indian Summer Monsoon which is persistent throughout the Holocene. Precipitation intensities at its northern extent seem to be driven by differentiated solar heating of the Northern Hemisphere indicating dependency on energy-gradients rather than absolute radiation intensities. The identified spatial constraints of monsoonal precipitation will facilitate the prediction of future monsoonal precipitation patterns in Central Asia under varying climatic conditions.

Numerical Simulation of the Large-Scale North American Monsoon Water Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Sud, Yogesh C.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2002-01-01

A general circulation model (GCM) that includes water vapor tracer (WVT) diagnostics is used to delineate the dominant sources of water vapor for precipitation during the North American monsoon. A 15-year model simulation carried out with one-degree horizontal resolution and time varying sea surface temperature is able to produce reasonable large-scale features of the monsoon precipitation. Within the core of the Mexican monsoon, continental sources provide much of the water for precipitation. Away from the Mexican monsoon (eastern Mexico and Texas), continental sources generally decrease with monsoon onset. Tropical Atlantic Ocean sources of water gain influence in the southern Great Plains states where the total precipitation decreases during the monsoon onset. Pacific ocean sources do contribute to the monsoon, but tend to be weaker after onset. Evaluating the development of the monsoons, soil water and surface evaporation prior to monsoon onset do not correlate with the eventual monsoon intensity. However, the most intense monsoons do use more local sources of water than the least intense monsoons, but only after the onset. This suggests that precipitation recycling is an important factor in monsoon intensity.

Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayamohan, R. S.

2007-10-01

Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.

Regional trends in early-monsoon rainfall over Vietnam and CCSM4 attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, R.; Wang, S. S.-Y.; Gillies, R. R.; Buckley, B. M.; Yoon, J.-H.; Cho, C.

2018-04-01

The analysis of precipitation trends for Vietnam revealed that early-monsoon precipitation has increased over the past three decades but to varying degrees over the northern, central and southern portions of the country. Upon investigation, it was found that the change in early-monsoon precipitation is associated with changes in the low-level cyclonic airflow over the South China Sea and Indochina that is embedded in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with a "La Niña-like" anomalous sea surface temperature pattern with warming in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooling in the eastern Pacific. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) was subsequently used for an attribution analysis. Over northern Vietnam an early-monsoon increase in precipitation is attributed to changes in both greenhouse gases and natural forcing. For central Vietnam, the observed increase in early-monsoon precipitation is reproduced by the simulation forced with greenhouse gases. However, over southern Vietnam the early-monsoon precipitation increase is less definitive where aerosols were seen to be preponderant but natural forcing through the role of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation may well be a factor that is not resolved by CCSM4. Increased early-monsoonal precipitation over the coastal lowland and deltas has the potential to amplify economic and human losses.

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Xing; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit

2015-04-01

Coastal upwelling is important to marine ecosystems and human activities. It transports nutrient-rich deep water mass that supports marine biological productivity. In this study, we aim to characterize the large-scale climate forcings that drive upwelling along the western Arabian Sea coast. Studies based on ocean sediments suggest that there is a link between this coastal upwelling system and the Indian summer monsoon. However, a more direct method is needed to examine the influence of various forcings on upwelling. For this purpose, we analyse a high-resolution (about 10 km) global ocean simulation (denoted STORM), which is based on the MPI-OM model developed by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg driven by the global meteorological reanalysis NCEP over the period 1950-2010. This very high spatial resolution allows us to identify characteristics of the coastal upwelling system. We compare the simulated upwelling velocity of STORM with two traditional upwelling indices: along-shore wind speed and sea surface temperature. The analysis reveals good consistency between these variables, with high correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind speed (r=0.85) as well as coastal sea surface temperature (r=-0.77). To study the impact of the monsoon on the upwelling we analyse both temporal and spatial co-variability between upwelling velocity and the Indian summer monsoon index. The spatial analysis shows that the impact of the monsoon on the upwelling is concentrated along the coast, as expected. However, somewhat unexpectedly, the temporal correlation between the coastal upwelling and the monsoon index is rather weak (r=0.26). Also, the spatial structure of upwelling in the Arabian Sea as revealed by a Principal Component Analysis is rather rich, indicating that factors other than the Monsoon are also important drivers of upwelling. In addition, no detectable trend in our coastal upwelling is found in the simulation that would match the

Potential of collocated radiometer and wind profiler observations for monsoon studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaji, B.; Prabha, Thara V.; Jaya Rao, Y.; Kiran, T.; Dinesh, G.; Chakravarty, Kaustav; Sonbawne, S. M.; Rajeevan, M.

2017-09-01

Collocated observations from microwave radiometer and wind profiler are used in a pilot study during the monsoon period to derive information on the thermodynamics and winds and association with rainfall characteristics. These instruments were operated throughout the monsoon season of 2015. Continuous vertical profiles of winds, temperature and humidity show significant promise for understanding the low-level jet, its periodicity and its association with moisture transport, clouds and precipitation embedded within the monsoon large-scale convection. Observations showed mutually beneficial in explaining variability that are part of the low frequency oscillations and the diurnal variability during monsoon. These observations highlight the importance of locally driven convective systems, in the presence of weak moisture transport over the area. The episodic moisture convergence showed a periodicity of 9 days which matches with the subsequent convection and precipitation and thermodynamic regimes. Inferences from the diurnal cycle of moisture transport and the convective activity, relationship with the low-level jet characteristics and thermodynamics are also illustrated.

High Northern Latitude Insolation Forcing of Tropical Monsoons or Monsoon Forcing of High Northern Latitude Ice Volume?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, W.; Zhou, W.; Cheng, L.; Wu, Z.; Xian, F.; Kong, X.; Cottam, T.; An, Z.; White, L.

2017-12-01

We show that atmospheric 10Be flux is a quantitative proxy for rainfall, and use it to derive a 530Ka-long record of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall from Chinese Loess. Our record strongly resembles the Red Sea paleosea level and LR04 benthic foram δ18O records, with 53% & 45% of its variance reflected in each of these two global ice volume proxies. This suggests EASM intensity is closely coupled to ice volume by some mechanism. At first glance, this seems to support the claim based on strongly correlated Chinese cave δ18O and 65°N summer solar insolation that Asian monsoon intensity is controlled by high northern latitude insolation. Nevertheless, our 10Be-proxy has only 17% common variance with cave δ18O. Furthermore, Chinese cave δ18O records are very poorly correlated with sea-level/global ice volume, conflicting with both our proxy and Milankovitch theory, if interpreted as a monsoon intensity proxy. We argue that cave δ18O is instead a mixing proxy for monsoon moisture derived from (δ18O depleted) Indian vs Pacific monsoon sectors. We suggest both this mixing ratio and EASM intensity are not governed by high northern latitude insolation, but rather by orbital forcing of the low latitude interhemispheric insolation gradient, which mimics the 65°N insolation pattern. We show this gradient regulates the ratio of Asian monsoon outflow to the Indian vs. North Pacific subtropical highs, providing a coupling to both Hadley and Walker circulations. When outflow strengthens in one of these sectors it weakens in the other, regulating the relative strength of the Trade and Westerly winds in each sector. Trade wind coupling to monsoon strength in each sector controls the ISM/Pacific monsoon moisture mixing ratio and EASM intensity, although intensity is also influenced by other factors. This model provides mechanisms by which the monsoons may influence ice volume. Westerlies strength adjacent to the North Pacific Subtropical High strongly regulates transient

Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late indian monsoon intensity in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Rohit; Chakraborty, Arindam; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

2018-01-01

The aim of this paper is to identify relative roles of different land-atmospheric conditions, apart from sea surface temperature (SST), in determining early vs. late summer monsoon intensity over India in a high resolution general circulation model (GCM). We find that in its early phase (June-July; JJ), pre-monsoon land-atmospheric processes play major role to modulate the precipitation over Indian region. These effects of pre-monsoon conditions decrease substantially during its later phase (August-September; AS) for which the interannual variation is mainly governed by the low frequency northward propagating intraseasonal oscillations. This intraseasonal variability which is related to mean vertical wind shear has a significant role during the early phase of monsoon as well. Further, using multiple linear regression, we show that interannual variation of early and late monsoon rainfall over India is best explained when all these land-atmospheric parameters are taken together. Our study delineates the relative role of different processes affecting early versus later summer monsoon rainfall over India that can be used for determining its subseasonal predictability.

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

PubMed Central

Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

2016-01-01

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ18O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales. PMID:27071753

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

PubMed

Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

2016-04-13

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

Environmental status of groundwater affected by chromite ore processing residue (COPR) dumpsites during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.

PubMed

Matern, Katrin; Weigand, Harald; Singh, Abhas; Mansfeldt, Tim

2017-02-01

Chromite ore processing residue (COPR) is generated by the roasting of chromite ores for the extraction of chromium. Leaching of carcinogenic hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) from COPR dumpsites and contamination of groundwater is a key environmental risk. The objective of the study was to evaluate Cr(VI) contamination in groundwater in the vicinity of three COPR disposal sites in Uttar Pradesh, India, in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Groundwater samples (n = 57 pre-monsoon, n = 70 monsoon) were taken in 2014 and analyzed for Cr(VI) and relevant hydrochemical parameters. The site-specific ranges of Cr(VI) concentrations in groundwater were <0.005 to 34.8 mg L -1 (Rania), <0.005 to 115 mg L -1 (Chhiwali), and <0.005 to 2.0 mg L -1 (Godhrauli). Maximum levels of Cr(VI) were found close to the COPR dumpsites and significantly exceeded safe drinking water limits (0.05 mg L -1 ). No significant dependence of Cr(VI) concentration on monsoons was observed.

Climatology of monsoon precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau from 13-year TRMM observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aijuan, Bai; Guoping, Li

2016-10-01

Based on the 13-year data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite during 2001-2013, the influencing geographical location of the Tibetan Plateau (Plateau) monsoon is determined. It is found that the domain of the Plateau monsoon is bounded by the latitude between 27° N and 37° N and the longitude between 60° E and 103° E. According to the annual relative precipitation, the Plateau monsoon can be divided into three sections: the Plateau winter monsoon (PWM) over Iran and Afghanistan, the Plateau summer monsoon (PSM) over the central Plateau, and the transiting zone of the Plateau monsoon (TPM) over the south, west, and east edges of the Plateau. In PWM and PSM, the monsoon climatology has a shorter rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of less than 800 mm. In TPM, it has a longer rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of more than 1800 mm. PWM experiences a single-peak monthly rainfall with the peak during January to March; PSM usually undergoes a multi-peak pattern with peaks in the warm season; TPM presents a double-peak pattern, with a strong peak in late spring to early summer and a secondary peak in autumn. The Plateau monsoon also characterizes an asymmetrical seasonal advance of the rain belt. In the east of the Plateau, the rain belt migrates in a south-north orientation under the impact of the tropical and subtropical systems' oscillation. In the west of the Plateau, the rain belt advances in an east-west direction, which is mainly controlled by the regional Plateau monsoon.

Structured teleconnections reveal the South American monsoon onset: A network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciemer, Catrin; Ekhtiari, Nikoo; Barbosa, Henrique; Boers, Niklas; Donner, Reik; Kurths, Jürgen; Rammig, Anja; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2017-04-01

The regional onset dates of the global monsoon systems are, to first order, determined by the seasonal shift of the intertropical convergence zone. However, precise onset dates vary substantially from year to year due to the complexity of the involved mechanisms. In this study, we investigate processes determining the onset of the South American monsoon system (SAMS). In recent years, a trend towards later onset dates of the SAMS has been observed. A later onset of the monsoon can have severe impacts on agriculture and infrastructure such as farming, water transport routes, and the stability of the Amazon rainforest in the long term. Possible reasons for this shift involve a multitude of climatic phenomena and variables relevant for the SAMS. To account for the highly interactive nature of the SAMS, we here investigate it with the help of complex networks. By studying the temporal changes of the correlation structure in spatial rainfall networks, we are able to determine coherent areas of similar precipitation patterns, spot teleconnections in terms of strongly correlated areas, detect key regions for precipitation correlations, and finally reveal the monsoon onset by an abrupt shift from an unordered to an ordered correlation structure of the network. To further evaluate the shift in the monsoon onset, we couple our rainfall network to a network of climate networks using sea surface temperature as a second variable. We are thereby able to emphasize oceanic regions that are particularly important for the SAMS and anticipate the influence of future changes of sea-surface temperature on the SAMS.

21,000 years of Ethiopian African monsoon variability recorded in sediments of the western Nile deep-sea fan: impact of the Nile freshwater inflow for the Mediterranean thermo-haline circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revel, Marie; Colin, Christophe; Bernasconi, Stephano; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Rolland, Yann; Bosch, Delphine

2014-05-01

The Nile delta sedimentation constitutes a continuous high resolution (1.6 mm/year) record of Ethiopian African monsoon regime intensity. Multiproxy analyses performed on core MS27PT recovered in hemipelagic Nile sediment margin (<90 km outward of the Rosetta mouth of the Nile) allow the quantification of the Saharan aeolian dust and the Blue/White Nile River suspended matter frequency fluctuations during the last 21 cal. ka BP. The radiogenic Sr and Nd isotopes, clay mineralogy, bulk elemental composition and palynological analyses reveal large changes in source components, oscillating between a dominant aeolian Saharan contribution during the LGM and the Late Holocene (~4 to 2 cal. ka BP), a dominant Blue/Atbara Nile River contribution during the early Holocene (15 to 8.4 cal. ka BP) and a probable White Nile River contribution during the Middle Holocene (8.4 to 4 cal. ka BP). The following main features are highlighted: 1. The rapid shift from the LGM arid conditions to the African Humid Period (AHP) started at about 15 cal. ka BP. AHP extends until 8.4 cal. ka BP, and we suggest that the Ethiopian African Monsoon maximum between 12 and 8 cal. ka BP is responsible for a larger Blue/Atbara Nile sediment load and freshwater input into the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. 2. The transition between the AHP and the arid Late Holocene is gradual and occurs in two main phases between 8.4 and 6.5 cal. ka BP and 6.5 to 3.2 cal. ka BP. We suggest that the main rain belt shifted southward from 8.4 to ~4 cal. ka BP and was responsible for progressively reduced sediment load and freshwater input into the eastern Mediterranean Sea. 3. The aridification along the Nile catchments occurred from ~4 to 2 cal. ka BP. A dry period, which culminates at 3.2 cal. ka BP, and seems to coincide with a re-establishment of increased oceanic primary productivity in the western Mediterranean Sea. We postulate that the decrease in thermo-haline water Mediterranean circulation could be part of a

Predicting onset and withdrawal of Indian Summer Monsoon in 2016: results of Tipping elements approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

2017-04-01

started to decrease, and after two days meteorological stations reported 'No rain' in the EG and also in areas located across the subcontinent in the direction from the North Pakistan to the Bay of Bengal. Hence, the date of monsoon withdrawal - October 10-th, predicted 70 days in advance, lies within our prediction interval. Our results show that our method allows predicting a future monsoon, and not only retrospectively or hindcast. In 2016 we predicted of the onset and withdrawal dates of the Southwest monsoon over the Eastern Ghats region in Central India for 40 and 70 days in advance respectively. Our general framework for predicting spatial-temporal critical transitions is applicable for systems of different nature. It allows predicting future from observational data only, when the model of a transition does not exist yet. [1] Stolbova, V., E. Surovyatkina, B. Bookhagen, and J. Kurths (2016): Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1-9. [2]https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/indian-monsoon-novel-approach-allows-early-forecasting?set_language=en [3] https://www.pik-potsdam.de/kontakt/pressebuero/fotos/monsoon-withdrawal/view

The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew B.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.

Prediction of monthly rainfall on homogeneous monsoon regions of India based on large scale circulation patterns using Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashid, Satishkumar S.; Maity, Rajib

2012-08-01

SummaryPrediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is of vital importance for Indian economy, and it has been remained a great challenge for hydro-meteorologists due to inherent complexities in the climatic systems. The Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from tropical Pacific Ocean (ENSO) and those from tropical Indian Ocean (EQUINOO) are established to influence the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. The information of these two large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in terms of their indices is used to model the complex relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and the ENSO as well as EQUINOO indices. However, extracting the signal from such large-scale indices for modeling such complex systems is significantly difficult. Rainfall predictions have been done for 'All India' as one unit, as well as for five 'homogeneous monsoon regions of India', defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Recent 'Artificial Intelligence' tool 'Genetic Programming' (GP) has been employed for modeling such problem. The Genetic Programming approach is found to capture the complex relationship between the monthly Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and large scale atmospheric circulation pattern indices - ENSO and EQUINOO. Research findings of this study indicate that GP-derived monthly rainfall forecasting models, that use large-scale atmospheric circulation information are successful in prediction of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall with correlation coefficient as good as 0.866, which may appears attractive for such a complex system. A separate analysis is carried out for All India Summer Monsoon rainfall for India as one unit, and five homogeneous monsoon regions, based on ENSO and EQUINOO indices of months of March, April and May only, performed at end of month of May. In this case, All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall could be predicted with 0.70 as correlation coefficient with somewhat lesser Correlation Coefficient (C.C.) values for different

Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during Late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

2013-01-01

Important concerns about the consequences of climate change for India are the potential impact on tropical cyclones and the monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as an indicator of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the Late Oligocene warming period (~27-24 Ma). Direct proxies providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system in the Early Miocene. The vast shell concentrations comprise a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deep to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished each recording a relative storm wave base depth. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore mollusks, corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclind foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinaceans; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. Vertical changes in these skeletal associations give evidence of gradually increasing tropical cyclone intensity in line with third-order sea level rise. The intensity of cyclones over the Arabian Sea is primarily linked to the strength of the Indian monsoon. Therefore and since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the Late Oligocene, the longer-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the Late Oligocene global warming (~24 Ma).

Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

2013-09-01

Climate change has an unknown impact on tropical cyclones and the Asian monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as a recorder of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the late Oligocene warming period (~ 27-24 Ma). Proxy data providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary. The vast shell concentrations are comprised of a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deeper to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished, each recording a relative storm wave base. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore molluscs, reef corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclinid foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinacean algae; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten bivalve-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. These wave base depth estimates were used for the reconstruction of long-term tropical storm intensity during the late Oligocene. The development and intensification of cyclones over the recent Arabian Sea is primarily limited by the atmospheric monsoon circulation and strength of the associated vertical wind shear. Therefore, since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the late Oligocene, the reconstructed long-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~ 26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the late

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35° AGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Stephanie J.; Levine, Richard C.; Turner, Andrew G.; Martin, Gill M.; Woolnough, Steven J.; Schiemann, Reinhard; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane

2016-02-01

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world's population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200-40 km at the equator (N96-N512, 1.9°-0.35°). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution-related processes cause these changes, we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts.

Dirtier Air from a Weaker Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian

2012-01-01

The level of air pollution in China has much increased in the past decades, causing serious health problems. Among the main pollutants are aerosols, also known as particulate matter: tiny, invisible particles that are suspended in the air. These particles contribute substantially to premature mortality associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer1. The increase of the aerosol level in China has been commonly attributed to the fast rise in pollutant emissions from the rapid economic development in the region. However, writing in Geophysical Research Letters, Jianlei Zhu and colleagues2 tell a different side of the story: using a chemical transport model and observation data, they show that the decadal scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon has also contributed to the increase of aerosol concentrations in China. The life cycle of atmospheric aerosols starts with its emission or formation in the atmosphere. Some aerosol components such as dust, soot and sea salt are emitted directly as particles to the atmosphere, but others are formed there by way of photochemical reactions. For example, sulphate and nitrate aerosols are produced from their respective precursor gases, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Aerosol particles can be transported away from their source locations by winds or vertical motion of the air. Eventually, they are removed from the atmosphere by means of dry deposition and wet scavenging by precipitation. Measurements generally show that aerosol concentrations over Asia are lowest during the summer monsoon season3, because intense rainfall efficiently removes them from the air. The East Asian summer monsoon extends over subtropics and mid-latitudes. Its rainfall tends to concentrate in rain belts that stretch out for many thousands of kilometres and affect China, Korea, Japan and the surrounding area. Observations suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation have been in decline since the 1970s4. In

Mid-Late Holocene Asian monsoon variations recorded in the Lake Rara sediment, western Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, A.; Yokoyama, Y.; Maemoku, H.; Yagi, H.; Okamura, M.; Matsuoka, H.; Miyake, N.; Adhikari, D.; Dangol, V.; Miyairi, Y.; Obrochta, S.; Matsuzaki, H.; Ikehara, M.

2011-12-01

The Asian monsoon is an important component of the Earth's climate system to understand regional and global climate dynamics. While geological reconstructions indicate that the Asian summer monsoon intensity gradually decreased through the Holocene, a clear and coherent picture of millennial and centennial scale variability has yet to emerge (e.g., Overpeck and Cole, 2007). The Himalayas are a key location for understanding centennial to millennial scale variations in the Asian monsoon, yet few studies of the Holocene have been conducted in this sensitive area. Direct evidence for shifts in monsoonal wind strength is often limited to marine proxy records, while terrestrial reconstructions (e.g., lake levels and spleothems) focus on precipitation. Here, we present the first evidence of terrestrial summer monsoon wind strength changes from Lake Rara, western Nepal. The lake is located at 3,000m above sea level and has a maximum water depth of 168m. Lake Rara Mn/Ti data, a proxy for lake stratification, provide the first direct comparison of the Indian summer monsoon wind intensity between the terrestrial Himalayan region and the marine Arabian sea region (Gupta et al., 2003) during mid-late Holocene. Centennial to millennial scale variability found in those records are synchronous, with the weak wind intervals corresponding to drier periods of East Asian. Strong similarities between the Lake Rara monsoon record and the Dongge cave speleothems precipitation record (Wang et al., 2005) suggest that the influence of Indian summer monsoon penetrates into southeastern China, which should be taken into account when interpreting paleomonsoon reconstructions. Overpeck JT, Cole JE. 2007. Climate change - Lessons from a distant monsoon. Nature 445: 270-271. Gupta AK, Anderson DM, Overpeck JT. 2003. Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean. Nature 421: 354-357. Wang YJ, Cheng H, Edwards RL, He YQ, Kong XG, An

Orbital pacing and ocean circulation-induced collapses of the Mesoamerican monsoon over the past 22,000 y.

PubMed

Lachniet, Matthew S; Asmerom, Yemane; Bernal, Juan Pablo; Polyak, Victor J; Vazquez-Selem, Lorenzo

2013-06-04

The dominant controls on global paleomonsoon strength include summer insolation driven by precession cycles, ocean circulation through its influence on atmospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperatures. However, few records from the summer North American Monsoon system are available to test for a synchronous response with other global monsoons to shared forcings. In particular, the monsoon response to widespread atmospheric reorganizations associated with disruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the deglacial period remains unconstrained. Here, we present a high-resolution and radiometrically dated monsoon rainfall reconstruction over the past 22,000 y from speleothems of tropical southwestern Mexico. The data document an active Last Glacial Maximum (18-24 cal ka B.P.) monsoon with similar δ(18)O values to the modern, and that the monsoon collapsed during periods of weakened AMOC during Heinrich stadial 1 (ca. 17 ka) and the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.5 ka). The Holocene was marked by a trend to a weaker monsoon that was paced by orbital insolation. We conclude that the Mesoamerican monsoon responded in concert with other global monsoon regions, and that monsoon strength was driven by variations in the strength and latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which was forced by AMOC variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. The surprising observation of an active Last Glacial Maximum monsoon is attributed to an active but shallow AMOC and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The emergence of agriculture in southwestern Mexico was likely only possible after monsoon strengthening in the Early Holocene at ca. 11 ka.

Orbital pacing and ocean circulation-induced collapses of the Mesoamerican monsoon over the past 22,000 y

PubMed Central

Lachniet, Matthew S.; Asmerom, Yemane; Bernal, Juan Pablo; Polyak, Victor J.; Vazquez-Selem, Lorenzo

2013-01-01

The dominant controls on global paleomonsoon strength include summer insolation driven by precession cycles, ocean circulation through its influence on atmospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperatures. However, few records from the summer North American Monsoon system are available to test for a synchronous response with other global monsoons to shared forcings. In particular, the monsoon response to widespread atmospheric reorganizations associated with disruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the deglacial period remains unconstrained. Here, we present a high-resolution and radiometrically dated monsoon rainfall reconstruction over the past 22,000 y from speleothems of tropical southwestern Mexico. The data document an active Last Glacial Maximum (18–24 cal ka B.P.) monsoon with similar δ18O values to the modern, and that the monsoon collapsed during periods of weakened AMOC during Heinrich stadial 1 (ca. 17 ka) and the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.5 ka). The Holocene was marked by a trend to a weaker monsoon that was paced by orbital insolation. We conclude that the Mesoamerican monsoon responded in concert with other global monsoon regions, and that monsoon strength was driven by variations in the strength and latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which was forced by AMOC variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. The surprising observation of an active Last Glacial Maximum monsoon is attributed to an active but shallow AMOC and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The emergence of agriculture in southwestern Mexico was likely only possible after monsoon strengthening in the Early Holocene at ca. 11 ka. PMID:23690596

Dynamics and composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk; Schlager, Hans; Baumann, Robert; Sinh Cai, Duy; Eyring, Veronika; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick; Jurkat-Witschas, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

2018-04-01

This study places HALO research aircraft observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The observations were obtained during the Earth System Model Validation (ESMVal) campaign in September 2012. Observed and simulated tracer-tracer relations reflect photochemical O3 production as well as in-mixing from the lower troposphere and the tropopause layer. The simulations demonstrate that tropospheric trace gas profiles in the monsoon season are distinct from those in the rest of the year, and the measurements reflect the main processes acting throughout the monsoon season. Net photochemical O3 production is significantly enhanced in the ASMA, where uplifted precursors meet increased NOx, mainly produced by lightning. An analysis of multiple monsoon seasons in the simulation shows that stratospherically influenced tropopause layer air is regularly entrained at the eastern ASMA flank and then transported in the southern fringe around the interior region. Radial transport barriers of the circulation are effectively overcome by subseasonal dynamical instabilities of the anticyclone, which occur quite frequently and are of paramount importance for the trace gas composition of the ASMA. Both the isentropic entrainment of O3-rich air and the photochemical conversion of uplifted O3-poor air tend to increase O3 in the ASMA outflow.

Spacebased Observations of the Oceanic Responses to Monsoons in South China Sea and Arabian Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xie, Xiao-Su; Liu, W. Timothy

2000-01-01

A large percentage of the world's population and their agrarian economy must endure the vagaries of the monsoons over the tropical oceans between Africa and the Philippines. We know very little about the oceanic responses to changes of the monsoon in the South China Sea (SCS), which is under the influence of the East Asian Monsoon System, and the Arabian Sea (AS), which is dominated by the Indian Monsoon System; oceanic observations are sparse in both regions. Data from spaceborne microwave scatterometers and radiometers have been used to estimate the two major atmospheric forcing, momentum flux and latent heat flux (LHF), which change with the monsoon winds. Spaceborne sensors also observed the surface signatures of the oceanic response: SST and sea level changes (SLC. Sufficient durations of these data have recently become available to allow the meaningful studies of the annual cycles and interannual anomalies. In SCS, the winter monsoon is strong and steady but the summer monsoon is weak and has large intraseasonal fluctuations. In AS, the summer monsoon is much stronger than the winter monsoon. Significant correlations between LHF and SST tendency, and between curl of wind stress and SLC are found in both oceans. In the north SCS, winds are strong and dry, LHF is high, and ocean cooling is also large in fall; LHF is low and the ocean warms up in spring. In AS, LHF and SST tendency have a semi annual period; LHF is high in summer when the wind is strong and in winter when the wind is dry. Along the coast of Oman, the strong summer southwest monsoon causes intense upwelling, low SST and LHF in summer; such wind-driven SST changes is not as obvious along the Vietnam coast because of the weaker summer monsoon. The negative correlation between curl of wind stress and SLC found in the central basins of both SCS and AS agrees with a simple Ekman pumping scenario. Cyclonic winds drive surface divergence and upwelling in the ocean; the rise of the thermocline causes

Regional influence of monsoons in the current and a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saini, Roop

Monsoon rainfall is of critical societal importance and monsoon circulations comprise an important part of global climate. Here, the thermodynamics of monsoon onsets in India and North America are considered both for observed data and for model projections with increasing greenhouse gases, in order to better understand the regional influence of monsoons in the current and warming climate. The regional influence of the monsoon onsets is analyzed in terms of the thermodynamic energy equation, regional circulation, and precipitation. For the Indian Monsoon, a Rossby-like response to the monsoon onset is clear in the observational data and is associated with horizontal temperature advection at midlevels as the westerlies intersect the warm temperature anomalies of the Rossby wave. The horizontal temperature advection is balanced by subsidence over areas of North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East, with an associated decrease in precipitation over those regions. The same processes that favor subsidence to the west of the monsoon also force rising motion over northern India and appear to be an important factor for the inland development of the monsoon. For the smaller spatial scales of the North American Monsoon, the descent to the northwest of the primary onset in Northwest Mexico is much more local and occurs directly in the path of monsoon development, apparently providing a self-limiting mechanism. For both monsoon onsets, simple Gill-Matsuno dynamics provide some qualitative understanding of the onset circulation, but do not reproduce the large spatial scales of the upper-level flow, which appear to be related to interactions with the mean westerly jets. The monsoon onsets for both regions were also analyzed for 5 models with available data from the CMIP5 project for runs with 1% per year CO2 increases. For the models considered, there is little consensus regarding changes to the strength of the monsoon onset in a warmer climate in terms of precipitation

Late Cenozoic history of North African climate and vegetation: Orbital and secular changes revealed by leaf-wax biomarkers at multiple ODP sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, C.; deMenocal, P. B.; Polissar, P. J.; Tierney, J. E.

2013-12-01

East Africa experienced a large shift towards increasingly arid conditions and expanded C4 grasslands after about 2 Ma, as indicated by multiple terrestrial and marine paleoclimatic and paleontological records. We investigated whether the East African shift towards C4 grasslands was associated with a change in the west African monsoonal response to orbital precession forcing. We analyzed eastern Mediterranean sedimentary leaf wax stable isotopes (δDwax and δ13Cwax) and planktonic foraminifera δ18O from ODP Site 967 at 2.5 kyr resolution from 3.0 - 3.1 Ma and 1.78 - 1.68 Ma, intervals with equal eccentricity forcing that bracket the rise in East African C4 grasslands. Large-amplitude negative excursions occur in δDwax, δ13Cwax, and δ18Oruber during sapropel intervals, consistent with our expectations that these proxies track increased monsoonal rainfall and runoff and more abundant C3 vegetation during wet North African periods. Nannofossil ooze sediments exhibit large positive isotopic excursions, consistent with drier North African conditions. However, average isotopic values are not significantly different for either δDwax or δ13Cwax from 3.0 Ma to 1.7 Ma, suggesting that west African monsoonal precipitation strength and vegetation were similar in North Africa during the East African C4 vegetation expansion. Our calculations of δDwater yield estimates similar to modern precipitation in northeast Africa, and δ13Cwax data indicate that vegetation varied between 70-90% C4 types during both periods. These results suggest that Site 967 primarily records northeast African climate and vegetation, and that East Africa's aridity and C4 vegetation expansion were a regional signal not experienced by northeast Africa. We will place both northeast Africa and East African changes in a long-term context with preliminary results from the last 25 Myr of NW African margin leaf wax δD. Analysis of samples from ODP Sites 659 (18°N, 21°W; W. Saharan margin) and 959 (4�

Potential modulations of pre-monsoon aerosols during El Niño: impact on Indian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fadnavis, S.; Roy, Chaitri; Sabin, T. P.; Ayantika, D. C.; Ashok, K.

2017-10-01

The potential role of aerosol loading on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the El Niño years are examined using satellite-derived observations and a state of the art fully interactive aerosol-chemistry-climate model. The Aerosol Index (AI) from TOMS (1978-2005) and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MISR spectroradiometer (2000-2010) indicate a higher-than-normal aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) during the pre-monsoon season with a concurrent El Niño. Sensitivity experiments using ECHAM5-HAMMOZ climate model suggests that this enhanced loading of pre-monsoon absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic plain can reduce the drought during El Niño years by invoking the `Elevated-Heat-Pump' mechanism through an anomalous aerosol-induced warm core in the atmospheric column. This anomalous heating upshot the relative strengthening of the cross-equatorial moisture inflow associated with the monsoon and eventually reduces the severity of drought during El Niño years. The findings are subject to the usual limitations such as the uncertainties in observations, and limited number of El Niño years (during the study period).

Asian monsoons in a late Eocene greenhouse world.

PubMed

Licht, A; van Cappelle, M; Abels, H A; Ladant, J-B; Trabucho-Alexandre, J; France-Lanord, C; Donnadieu, Y; Vandenberghe, J; Rigaudier, T; Lécuyer, C; Terry, D; Adriaens, R; Boura, A; Guo, Z; Soe, Aung Naing; Quade, J; Dupont-Nivet, G; Jaeger, J-J

2014-09-25

The strong present-day Asian monsoons are thought to have originated between 25 and 22 million years (Myr) ago, driven by Tibetan-Himalayan uplift. However, the existence of older Asian monsoons and their response to enhanced greenhouse conditions such as those in the Eocene period (55-34 Myr ago) are unknown because of the paucity of well-dated records. Here we show late Eocene climate records revealing marked monsoon-like patterns in rainfall and wind south and north of the Tibetan-Himalayan orogen. This is indicated by low oxygen isotope values with strong seasonality in gastropod shells and mammal teeth from Myanmar, and by aeolian dust deposition in northwest China. Our climate simulations support modern-like Eocene monsoonal rainfall and show that a reinforced hydrological cycle responding to enhanced greenhouse conditions counterbalanced the negative effect of lower Tibetan relief on precipitation. These strong monsoons later weakened with the global shift to icehouse conditions 34 Myr ago.

Impact of East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Air Quality over China: View from space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Chun; Wang, Yuhang; Yang, Qing

2010-05-04

Tropospheric O3 columns retrieved from OMI and MLS measurements, CO columns from MOPITT, and tropospheric O3 and CO concentrations from TES from May to August in 2006 are analyzed using the Regional chEmical and trAnsport Model (REAM) to investigate the impact of the East Asian summer monsoon on the air quality over China. The observed and simulated migrations of O3 and CO are in good agreement, demonstrating that the summer monsoon significantly affects the air quality over southeastern China and this influence extends to central East China from June to July. Enhancements of CO and O3 over southeastern China disappearmore » after the onset of the summer monsoon and re-emerge in August after the monsoon wanes. The pre-monsoon high O3 concentrations over southern China are due to photochemical production from pollutant emissions and the O3 transport from the stratosphere. In the summer monsoon season, the O3 concentrations are relatively low over monsoon-affected regions because of the transport of marine air masses and weak photochemical activity. We find that the monsoon system strongly modulates the pollution problem over a large portion of East China in summer, depending on its strength and tempo-spatial extension. Model results also suggest that transport from the stratosphere and long-range transport from East China and South/Central Asia all make significant contributions to O3 enhancements over West China. Satellite observations provide valuable information for investigating the monsoon impact on air quality, particularly for the regions with limited in situ measurements.« less

See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon.

PubMed

Eroglu, Deniz; McRobie, Fiona H; Ozken, Ibrahim; Stemler, Thomas; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

2016-09-26

The East Asian-Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could 'lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see-saw relationship over the last 9,000 years-with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime.

See–saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian–Australian summer monsoon

PubMed Central

Eroglu, Deniz; McRobie, Fiona H.; Ozken, Ibrahim; Stemler, Thomas; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

2016-01-01

The East Asian–Indonesian–Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian–Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could ‘lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see–saw relationship over the last 9,000 years—with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime. PMID:27666662

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

2015-05-01

The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi; Liu, Jian; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2014-01-01

We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model's performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0 %/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4 %/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6 %/°C. The "warm land-cool ocean" favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3 %/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4 %/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10 %. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced.

Seasonal Transitions and the Westerly Jet in the Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, J. C. H.; Kong, W.; Swenson, L. M.

2016-12-01

The Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) evolution was previously characterized as a trend towards weaker monsoon intensity paced by orbital insolation. We argue that this evolution is more accurately characterized as changes in the transition timing and duration of the EASM seasonal stages (Spring, pre Mei-Yu, Mei-Yu, Midsummer), and tied to the north-south displacement of the westerlies relative to Tibet. To this end, we employ atmospheric general circulation model time-slice simulations across the Holocene, and objectively identify the transition timing and duration of the EASM seasonal stages. Compared to the late Holocene, we find an earlier onset of Mei-Yu and an earlier transition from Mei-Yu to Summer in the early-mid Holocene, resulting in a shortened Mei-Yu and prolonged Summer stage. These changes are accompanied by an earlier northward positioning of the westerlies relative to Tibet. Our hypothesis provides a more satisfactory explanation for two key observations of Holocene East Asian climate: the `asynchronous Holocene optimum', and changes to East Asian dustiness. Our results highlight a key difference in the way that the East Asian monsoon dynamically responds to precessional insolation changes compared to the other monsoons. For other monsoon systems, changes to the land-ocean contrast drive changes to monsoon intensity. While this also occurs for the East Asian monsoon, more importantly changes to the meridional position of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau determine the timing of seasonal transitions; a northward shift triggers earlier seasonal rainfall transitions and in particular a shorter Mei-Yu and longer Midsummer stage. By similar reasoning, changes to obliquity also strongly affect East Asian summer monsoon seasonality, with a larger tilt resulting in earlier northward shift of the westerlies.

Understanding the Unusual 2017 Monsoon and Floods in South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Palash, W.; Hasan, M. A.; Nusrat, F.

2017-12-01

Driven primarily by the South Asian Monsoon, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin system collectively drains intense precipitation for an area of more than 1.5 million square kilometers during the wet summer season. Bangladesh, being the lowest riparian country in the system, experiences recurrent floods and immense suffering to its population. The 2017 monsoon season was quite unusual in terms of the characteristics of the precipitation received in the basin. The monsoon was spread out over a much larger time span (April-October) compared to the average monsoon season (June-September). Although the monsoon does not typically start until June in Bangladesh, the 2017 season started much earlier in April with unusually heavy precipitation in the Meghna basin region and caused major damage to agriculture in northeastern Bangladesh. The rainfall continued in several record-breaking pulses, compared to the typical one or two large waves. One of the largest pulses occurred in early August with very high in intensity and volume, causing ECMWF to issue a major warning about widespread flooding in Bangladesh, Northern India, and Eastern Nepal. This record flood event impacted over 40 million people in the above regions, causing major damage to life and infrastructure. Although the Brahmaputra rose above the danger level several times this season, the Ganges was unusually low, thus sparing downstream areas from disastrous floods. However, heavy precipitation continued until October, causing urban flooding in Dhaka and Chittagong - and worsening sanitation and public health conditions in southern Bangladesh - currently undergoing a terrible humanitarian crisis involving Rohingya refugees from the Myanmar. Despite marked improvement in flood forecasting systems in recent years, the 2017 floods identified critical gaps in our understanding of the flooding phenomena and limitations of dissemination in these regions. In this study, we investigate 1) the unusual

On the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the EQUINOO in the CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishnu, S.; Francis, P. A.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Shenoi, S. S. C.

2018-03-01

Several recent studies have shown that positive (negative) phase of Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) is favourable (unfavourable) to the Indian summer monsoon. However, many ocean-atmosphere global coupled models, including the state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2 have difficulty in reproducing this link realistically. In this study, we analyze the retrospective forecasts by the CFS model for the period 1982-2010 with an objective to identify the reasons behind the failure of the model to simulate the observed links between Indian summer monsoon and EQUINOO. It is found that, in the model hindcasts, the rainfall in the core monsoon region was mainly due to westward propagating synoptic scale systems, that originated from the vicinity of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). Our analysis shows that unlike in observations, in the CFS, majority of positive (negative) EQUINOO events are associated with El Niño (La Niña) events in the Pacific. In addition to this, there is a strong link between EQUINOO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the model. We show that, during the negative phase of EQUINOO/IOD, northward propagating TCZs remained stationary over the Bay of Bengal for longer period compared to the positive phase of EQUINOO/IOD. As a result, compared to the positive phase of EQUINOO/IOD, during a negative phase of EQUINOO/IOD, more westward propagating synoptic scale systems originated from the vicinity of TCZ and moved on to the core monsoon region, which resulted in higher rainfall over this region in the CFS. We further show that frequent, though short-lived, westward propagating systems, generated near the vicinity of TCZ over the Bay moved onto the mainland were responsible for less number of break monsoon spells during the negative phase of EQUINOO/IOD in the model hindcasts. This study underlines the necessity for improving the skill of the coupled models, particularly CFS model, to simulate the links between EQUINOO/IOD and

Influence of Continental Geometry on the Onset and Spatial Distribution of Monsoonal Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, K. L.; Bordoni, S.

2017-12-01

the tropical circulation to a dynamical regime that restricts the degree to which eddy momentum fluxes influence the circulation strength and allows the cell the grow rapidly in strength and poleward extent. These results provide some useful insights for developing theories to better understand the mechanisms of rapid onset of monsoon systems worldwide.

A Holocene Record of Monsoon Intensity From Speleothems in Flores, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, M. L.; Drysdale, R.; Gagan, M.; Ayliffe, L.; Zhao, J.; St. Pierre, E.; Hantoro, W.; Suwargadi, B.

2007-12-01

The Australasian monsoon is among the largest monsoon systems on Earth. The affected region experiences a marked seasonal cycle in winds and precipitation, similar to its Northern Hemisphere counterparts (e.g., Asian monsoons). The Australasian monsoon is the life blood of the millions of people of the Indonesian archipelago. Since the climate is the dominating factor controlling food production, it is of great significance and urgency that we gain a firmer grasp on the parameters that control variations in monsoon intensity. Precise uranium series dating of two actively growing speleothems measuring ~1.25 (LR06-B1) and ~1.61 (LR06-B3) meters in length from Liang Luar cave (Flores, eastern Indonesia), reveal basal ages of ~12,846±103 and 23,605±171 years respectively. In previous studies, stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) and trace element concentrations in speleothems have revealed past environmental change (e.g., Burns et al., 2001; Wang et al., 2001; Fleitmann et al., 2004; Drysdale et al., 2004).In monsoon-affected regions, the δ18O signal recorded in stalagmites seems to be dominated by the amount of precipitation (so-called `amount effect'), whereby more negative (positive) δ18O values indicate enhanced (diminished) precipitation. Preliminary results from LR06-B1 indicate that δ18O values show a general increase in monsoon intensity from the beginning of the record to ~2000 years BP: this more or less follows insolation changes over the Australian continent.Comparison of our record with D4 from Dongge Cave reveals an anticorrelation during the Holocene, further supporting the hypothesis that tropical monsoon intensity is largely controlled by changes in insolation in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Examination of our δ13C record demonstrates a high-frequency signal superimposed on low- frequency variability which correlates with the reconstructed sunspot cycle: higher (lower) sunspot numbers, and hence increased solar activity

Freshwater monsoon related inputs in the Japan Sea: a diatom record from IODP core U1427

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ventura, C. P. L.; Lopes, C.

2016-12-01

Monsoon rainfall is the life-blood of more than half the world's population. Extensive research is being conducted in order to refine projections regarding the impact of anthropogenic climate change on these systems. The East Asian monsoon (EAM) plays a significant role in large-scale climate variability. Due to its importance to global climate and world's population, there is an urgent need for greater understanding of this system, especially during past climate changes. The input of freshwater from the monsoon precipitation brings specific markers, such as freshwater diatoms and specific diatom ecological assemblages that are preserved in marine sediments. Freshwater diatoms are easily identifiable and have been used in the North Pacific to reconstruct environmental conditions (Lopes et al 2006) and flooding episodes (Lopes and Mix, 2009). Here we show preliminary results of freshwater diatoms records that are linked with river discharge due to increase land rainfall that can be derived from Monsoon rainfall. We extend our preliminary study to the past 400ky.

Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, Rachel E.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan J.

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

Dual effects of the winter monsoon on haze-fog variations in eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qian; Sheng, Lifang; Cao, Ziqi; Diao, Yina; Wang, Wencai; Zhou, Yang

2017-06-01

Previous studies have revealed a negative correlation between the East Asian winter monsoon and wintertime haze-fog events in China. The winter monsoon reduces haze-fog by advecting away aerosol particles and supplying clean air through cold waves. However, it is found that the frequency of haze-fog events on subseasonal time scales displays no correlation with typical winter monsoon indices. The results show that the accumulating and maintaining effects of calm weather related to the Siberian High, which is also a part of the monsoon circulation system, are equally important for the development of haze-fog events during winter. Correlation analysis indicates that subseasonal variations in haze-fog are closely related to the intensity of the Siberian High (r = 0.49). The Siberian High may increase the occurrence of haze-fog events by reducing the near surface wind speed and enhancing the stratification stability. To quantify the contribution of these diverse effects of the winter monsoon on the variations in haze-fog events, we analyzed haze-fog events during periods of cold wave activity and calm weather separately and contrasted the relative contributions of these two effects on different time scales. On the subseasonal scale, the effect of the Siberian High was 2.0 times that of cold waves; on the interannual scale, the effect of cold waves was 2.4 times that of the Siberian High. This study reveals the dual effects of the East Asian winter monsoon on wintertime haze-fog variations in eastern China and provides a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the monsoon and haze-fog events.

Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2002-01-01

This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

Extended Range Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon: Current status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Borah, N.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; S, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.

2014-12-01

The main focus of this study is to develop forecast consensus in the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon Intraseasonal oscillations using a suit of different variants of Climate Forecast system (CFS) model. In this CFS based Grand MME prediction system (CGMME), the ensemble members are generated by perturbing the initial condition and using different configurations of CFSv2. This is to address the role of different physical mechanisms known to have control on the error growth in the ERP in the 15-20 day time scale. The final formulation of CGMME is based on 21 ensembles of the standalone Global Forecast System (GFS) forced with bias corrected forecasted SST from CFS, 11 low resolution CFST126 and 11 high resolution CFST382. Thus, we develop the multi-model consensus forecast for the ERP of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a suite of different variants of CFS model. This coordinated international effort lead towards the development of specific tailor made regional forecast products over Indian region. Skill of deterministic and probabilistic categorical rainfall forecast as well the verification of large-scale low frequency monsoon intraseasonal oscillations has been carried out using hindcast from 2001-2012 during the monsoon season in which all models are initialized at every five days starting from 16May to 28 September. The skill of deterministic forecast from CGMME is better than the best participating single model ensemble configuration (SME). The CGMME approach is believed to quantify the uncertainty in both initial conditions and model formulation. Main improvement is attained in probabilistic forecast which is because of an increase in the ensemble spread, thereby reducing the error due to over-confident ensembles in a single model configuration. For probabilistic forecast, three tercile ranges are determined by ranking method based on the percentage of ensemble members from all the participating models falls in those three categories. CGMME further

The response of East Asian monsoon to the precessional cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. E.

2017-12-01

The oxygen isotopic composition of cave speleothems exhibits a large amplitude change following the insolation, particularly the precessional cycle. Whether speleothem d18O reflects local precipitation amount, however, has been questioned by alternative hypotheses: (1) d18O reflects upstream Indian monsoon precipitation, which influences the isotopic composition of the input vapor to East Asia, and (2) the isotopic composition of pre-monsoon and monsoon exhibits a large difference, and the seasonality of precipitation may have shifted in response to insolation. Motivated the fact that the magnitude of Asian monsoon d18O was not reproduced by most climate models, here I show new results, using the fully coupled GFDL model, that precipitation increases when the northern hemisphere receives more summer insolation, similar to the original claim. I argue that previous models do not produce enough rainfall during the monsoon season, possibly because the westerly jet is located too north in relation to the Tibetan Plateau during the monsoon season. I conclude that Asian monsoon intensity probably increases with increasing insolation there, given a large change in speleothem d18O. My next step will be testing this hypothesis after incorporating isotopes into the GFDL model.

Complex Networks Dynamics Based on Events-Phase Synchronization and Intensity Correlation Applied to The Anomaly Patterns and Extremes in The Tropical African Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oluoch, K.; Marwan, N.; Trauth, M.; Loew, A.; Kurths, J.

2012-04-01

The African continent lie almost entirely within the tropics and as such its (tropical) climate systems are predominantly governed by the heterogeneous, spatial and temporal variability of the Hadley and Walker circulations. The variabilities in these meridional and zonal circulations lead to intensification or suppression of the intensities, durations and frequencies of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ICTZ) migration, trade winds and subtropical high-pressure regions and the continental monsoons. The above features play a central role in determining the African rainfall spatial and temporal variability patterns. The current understanding of these climate features and their influence on the rainfall patterns is not sufficiently understood. Like many real-world systems, atmospheric-oceanic processes exhibit non-linear properties that can be better explored using non-linear (NL) methods of time-series analysis. Over the recent years, the complex network approach has evolved as a powerful new player in understanding spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of complex systems. Together with NL techniques, it is continuing to find new applications in many areas of science and technology including climate research. We would like to use these two powerful methods to understand the spatial structure and dynamics of African rainfall anomaly patterns and extremes. The method of event synchronization (ES) developed by Quiroga et al., 2002 and first applied to climate networks by Malik et al., 2011 looks at correlations with a dynamic time lag and as such, it is a more intuitive way to correlate a complex and heterogeneous system like climate networks than a fixed time delay most commonly used. On the other hand, the short comings of ES is its lack of vigorous test statistics for the significance level of the correlations, and the fact that only the events' time indices are synchronized while all information about how the relative intensities propagate within network

Fast Adjustments of the Asian Summer Monsoon to Anthropogenic Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang; Lee, Dong Eun

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic aerosols are a major factor contributing to human-induced climate change, particularly over the densely populated Asian monsoon region. Understanding the physical processes controlling the aerosol-induced changes in monsoon rainfall is essential for reducing the uncertainties in the future projections of the hydrological cycle. Here we use multiple coupled and atmospheric general circulation models to explore the physical mechanisms for the aerosol-driven monsoon changes on different time scales. We show that anthropogenic aerosols induce an overall reduction in monsoon rainfall and circulation, which can be largely explained by the fast adjustments over land north of 20∘N. This fast response occurs before changes in sea surface temperature (SST), largely driven by aerosol-cloud interactions. However, aerosol-induced SST feedbacks (slow response) cause substantial changes in the monsoon meridional circulation over the oceanic regions. Both the land-ocean asymmetry and meridional temperature gradient are key factors in determining the overall monsoon circulation response.

Interactions between the Somali Current eddies during the summer monsoon: insights from a numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnier, B.; Akuetevi, C. Q.; Verron, J. A.; Molines, J. M.; Lecointre, A.

2016-02-01

During the summer monsoon, the ocean circulation of the northwestern Indian Ocean is characterized by large anticyclonic circulation features that are part of the Somali Current system. In the vicinity of the equator is the Southern Gyre (SG), a large retroflection loop of the East African Coastal Current, generated after this current (pushed by the southwesterly winds) has crossed the equator. North of it is the Great Whirl (GW), a large anticyclone which exhibits intense swirling currents. Eddy-resolving hindcast simulations of the global ocean circulation are used to study the fast interactions between these large anticyclonic eddies. The present investigation identifies the origin and the subsequent development of the cyclones flanked upon the Great Whirl (GW) previously identified by in satellite observations and establishes that similar cyclones are also flanked upon the Southern Gyre (SG). These cyclones are identified as major actors in mixing water masses within the large eddies and offshore the coast of Somali. All simulations bring to light that during the period when the Southwest Monsoon is well established, the SG moves northward along the Somali coast and encounters the GW. The interaction between the SG and the GW is a collision without merging, collision during which the GW is pushed to the east of Socotra Island, sheds several smaller patches of anticyclonic vorticity, and often reforms into the Socotra Eddy, thus proposing a formation mechanism for the Socotra Eddy. During this process, the GW gives up its place to the SG which in turn becomes a new Great Whirl. This process is robust throughout the three simulations.

Impacts of the East Asian Monsoon on springtime dust concentrations over China: IMPACTS OF MONSOON ON DUST

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lou, Sijia; Russell, Lynn M.; Yang, Yang

We use 150 year preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model to quantify the impacts of the East Asian Monsoon strength on interannual variations of springtime dust concentrations over China. The simulated interannual variations in March-April-May (MAM) dust column concentrations range between 20–40% and 10–60% over eastern and western China, respectively. The dust concentrations over eastern China correlate negatively with the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) index, which represents the strength of monsoon, with a regionally averaged correlation coefficient of 0.64. Relative to the strongest EAM years, MAMdust concentrations in the weakest EAM years are higher over China, with regionalmore » relative differences of 55.6%, 29.6%, and 13.9% in the run with emissions calculated interactively and of 33.8%, 10.3%, and 8.2% over eastern, central, and western China, respectively, in the run with prescribed emissions. Both interactive run and prescribed emission run show the similar pattern of climate change between the weakest and strongest EAM years. Strong anomalous northwesterly and westerly winds over the Gobi and Taklamakan deserts during the weakest EAM years result in larger transport fluxes, and thereby increase the dust concentrations over China. These differences in dust concentrations between the weakest and strongest EAM years (weakest-strongest) lead to the change in the net radiative forcing by up to 8 and 3Wm2 at the surface, compared to 2.4 and +1.2Wm2 at the top of the atmosphere over eastern and western China, respectively.« less

Shifting covariability of North American summer monsoon precipitation with antecedent winter precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.

2006-01-01

Previous research has suggested that a general inverse relation exists between winter precipitation in the southwestern United states (US) and summer monsoon precipitation. In addition, it has been suggested that this inverse relation between winter precipitation and the magnitude of the southwestern US monsoon breaks down under certain climatic conditions that override the regional winter/monsoon precipitation relations. Results from this new study indicate that the winter/monsoon precipitation relations do not break down, but rather shift location through time. The strength of winter/monsoon precipitation relations, as indexed by 20-year moving correlations between winter precipitation and monsoon precipitation, decreased in Arizona after about 1970, but increased in New Mexico. The changes in these correlations appear to be related to an eastward shift in the location of monsoon precipitation in the southwestern US. This eastward shift in monsoon precipitation and the changes in correlations with winter precipitation also appear to be related to an eastward shift in July/August atmospheric circulation over the southwestern US that resulted in increased monsoon precipitation in New Mexico. Results also indicate that decreases in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central North Pacific Ocean also may be associated with th changes in correlations between winter and monsoon precipitation. Copyright ?? 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

Impacts of Aerosol-Monsoon Interaction on Rainfall and Circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

2016-01-01

The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all- India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: 1) control with no aerosol, 2) aerosol radiative effect only and 3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into mesoscale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be substantial and cannot be ignored.

Impacts of aerosol-monsoon interaction on rainfall and circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

2017-09-01

The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all-India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using the NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: (1) control with no aerosol, (2) aerosol radiative effect only and (3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol-monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large-scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. in Clim Dyn 26(7-8):855-864, 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India/northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into meso-scale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be

Source to Sink Transport of Terrestrial Biomarkers in a Monsoon-driven Fluvial System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkels, F.; Zwart, H. M.; Usman, M.; Basu, S.; Martes, C.; Eglinton, T. I.; Peterse, F.

2016-12-01

Rivers are an important link in global organic carbon (OC) cycling by connecting soils and marine sediments. Whereas deposition of terrestrial carbon in marine settings may form a large OC sink, the extent of OC loss during river transport by CO2 outgassing is highly uncertain. In this context, it is crucial to better constrain the composition and sources of OC in rivers. The Godavari River in Central India is very dynamic with intense rainfall and high soil erosion rates during the monsoon and low transport during the dry period, representative of low frequency, high-impact erosion events expected worldwide due to climate change. In this study, we did a high-resolution sampling of soils, river sediments (bulk and < 63 um) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) during the monsoon and dry season. Source-to-sink tracing of concentration and compositional variations in branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) as soil-specific biomarkers allowed us to follow soil OC transport through the river basin. Spatial trends in weight-normalized GDGT patterns reveal marked changes during the monsoon and dry season from upstream tributaries towards the delta. Evolution of GDGT signatures along the course of the river shows that SPM during the monsoon carries a primarily soil-derived signal contributed by the northern headwaters. Dominance of the recently discovered 6-methyl isomer indicates a year-round aquatic contribution from the western tributaries. River water isotopic composition and GDGT signatures show that northern tributaries dominate modern OC export from the Godavari basin, providing new information for the interpretation of paleorecords derived from cores taken in the Bay of Bengal. More detailed insights in OC sources in the Godavari basin will derive from (bulk) δ13C and ultimately 14C analyses of soils and river sediments. Further research into provenance of the mineral fraction will reveal if sediment and OC transport is (de)coupled.

Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

2016-08-01

This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

The Asian-Australian Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model*.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.

1998-06-01

Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1°-2°C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1-2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year. Time series of area-averaged SSTs for the NINO3 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific show that the CSM is producing about 60% of the amplitude of the observed variability in that region, consistent

Evaluation of precipitation forecasts from 3D-Var and hybrid GSI-based system during Indian summer monsoon 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sanjeev Kumar; Prasad, V. S.

2018-02-01

This paper presents a systematic investigation of medium-range rainfall forecasts from two versions of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)-Global Forecast System based on three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) and hybrid analysis system namely, NGFS and HNGFS, respectively, during Indian summer monsoon (June-September) 2015. The NGFS uses gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) 3D-Var data assimilation system, whereas HNGFS uses hybrid 3D ensemble-variational scheme. The analysis includes the evaluation of rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall using statistical score such as mean precipitation, bias, correlation coefficient, root mean square error and forecast improvement factor. In addition to these, categorical scores like Peirce skill score and bias score are also computed to describe particular aspects of forecasts performance. The comparison results of mean precipitation reveal that both the versions of model produced similar large-scale feature of Indian summer monsoon rainfall for day-1 through day-5 forecasts. The inclusion of fully flow-dependent background error covariance significantly improved the wet biases in HNGFS over the Indian Ocean. The forecast improvement factor and Peirce skill score in the HNGFS have also found better than NGFS for day-1 through day-5 forecasts.

Decoupling of monsoon activity across the northern and southern Indo-Pacific during the Late Glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denniston, R. F.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Ummenhofer, C. C.; Humphreys, W. F.; Cugley, J.; Woods, D.; Lucker, S.

2017-11-01

Recent studies of stalagmites from the Southern Hemisphere tropics of Indonesia reveal two shifts in monsoon activity not apparent in records from the Northern Hemisphere sectors of the Austral-Asian monsoon system: an interval of enhanced rainfall at ∼19 ka, immediately prior to Heinrich Stadial 1, and a sharp increase in precipitation at ∼9 ka. Determining whether these events are site-specific or regional is important for understanding the full range of sensitivities of the Austral-Asian monsoon. We present a discontinuous 40 kyr carbon isotope record of stalagmites from two caves in the Kimberley region of the north-central Australian tropics. Heinrich stadials are represented by pronounced negative carbon isotopic anomalies, indicative of enhanced rainfall associated with a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and consistent with hydroclimatic changes observed across Asia and the Indo-Pacific. Between 20 and 8 ka, however, the Kimberley stalagmites, like the Indonesian record, reveal decoupling of monsoon behavior from Southeast Asia, including the early deglacial wet period (which we term the Late Glacial Pluvial) and the abrupt strengthening of early Holocene monsoon rainfall.

African American teens and the neo-juvenile justice system.

PubMed

Rozie-Battle, Judith L

2002-01-01

African American youth continue to be overrepresented in the juvenile justice system. As a result of the current political environment and the perceived increase in crime among young people, the nation has moved away from rehabilitation and toward harsher treatment of delinquents. The African American community must encourage policy makers and community leaders to continue to address the disproportionate representation of African American youth in the system. Current policing and prosecutorial policies must also be examined and challenged to end the perception of an unjust system.

CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel Report to Scientific Steering Group-18

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperber, Ken R.; Hendon, Harry H.

2011-05-04

These are a set of slides on CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel Report to Scientific Steering Group-18. These are the major topics covered within: major activities over the past year, AAMP Monsoon Diagnostics/Metrics Task Team, Boreal Summer Asian Monsoon, Workshop on Modelling Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability, Workshop on Interdecadal Variability and Predictability of the Asian-Australian Monsoon, Evidence of Interdecadal Variability of the Asian-Australian Monsoon, Development of MJO metrics/process-oriented diagnostics/model evaluation/prediction with MJOTF and GCSS, YOTC MJOTF, GEWEX GCSS, AAMP MJO Diabatic Heating Experiment, Hindcast Experiment for Intraseasonal Prediction, Support and Coordination for CINDY2011/DYNAMO, Outreach to CORDEX, Interaction with FOCRAII, WWRP/WCRP Multi-Week Predictionmore » Project, Major Future Plans/Activities, Revised AAMP Terms of Reference, Issues and Challenges.« less

Can the Southern annular mode influence the Korean summer monsoon rainfall?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhu, Amita; Kripalani, Ramesh; Oh, Jaiho; Preethi, Bhaskar

2017-05-01

We demonstrate that a large-scale longitudinally symmetric global phenomenon in the Southern Hemisphere sub-polar region can transmit its influence over a remote local region of the Northern Hemisphere traveling more than 100° of latitudes (from 70°S to 40°N). This is illustrated by examining the relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Korean Monsoon Rainfall (KMR) based on the data period 1983-2013. Results reveal that the May-June SAM (MJSAM) has a significant in-phase relationship with the subsequent KMR. A positive MJSAM is favorable for the summer monsoon rainfall over the Korean peninsula. The impact is relayed through the central Pacific Ocean. When a negative phase of MJSAM occurs, it gives rise to an anomalous meridional circulation in a longitudinally locked air-sea coupled system over the central Pacific that propagates from sub-polar to equatorial latitudes and is associated with the central Pacific warming. The ascending motion over the central Pacific descends over the Korean peninsula during peak-boreal summer resulting in weakening of monsoon rainfall. The opposite features prevail during a positive phase of SAM. Thus, the extreme modes of MJSAM could possibly serve as a predictor for ensuing Korean summer monsoon rainfall.

The classification of PM10 concentrations in Johor Based on Seasonal Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, Hazrul Abdul; Hanafi Rahmat, Muhamad; Aisyah Sapani, Siti

2018-04-01

Air is the most important living resource in life. Contaminated air could adversely affect human health and the environment, especially during the monsoon season. Contamination occurs as a result of human action and haze. There are several pollutants present in the air where one of them is PM10. Secondary data was obtained from the Department of Environment from 2010 until 2014 and was analyzed using the hourly average of PM10 concentrations. This paper examined the relation between PM10 concentrations and the monsoon seasons (Northeast Monsoon and Southwest Monsoon) in Larkin and Pasir Gudang. It was expected that the concentration of PM10 would be higher during the Southwest Monsoon as it is a dry season. The data revealed that the highest PM10 concentrations were recorded between 2010 to 2014 during this particular monsoon season. The characteristics of PM10 concentration were compared using descriptive statistics based on the monsoon seasons and classified using the hierarchical cluster analysis (Ward Methods). The annual average of PM10 concentration during the Southwest Monsoon had exceeded the standard set by the Malaysia Ambient Air Quality Guidelines (50 μg/m3) while the PM10 concentration during the Northeast Monsoon was below the acceptable level for both stations. The dendrogram displayed showed two clusters for each monsoon season for both stations excepted for the PM10 concentration during the Northeast Monsoon in Larkin which was classified into three clusters due to the haze in 2010. Overall, the concentration of PM10 in 2013 was higher based on the clustering shown for every monsoon season at both stations according to the characteristics in the descriptive statistics.

Aerosols cause intraseasonal short-term suppression of Indian monsoon rainfall.

PubMed

Dave, Prashant; Bhushan, Mani; Venkataraman, Chandra

2017-12-11

Aerosol abundance over South Asia during the summer monsoon season, includes dust and sea-salt, as well as, anthropogenic pollution particles. Using observations during 2000-2009, here we uncover repeated short-term rainfall suppression caused by coincident aerosols, acting through atmospheric stabilization, reduction in convection and increased moisture divergence, leading to the aggravation of monsoon break conditions. In high aerosol-low rainfall regions extending across India, both in deficient and normal monsoon years, enhancements in aerosols levels, estimated as aerosol optical depth and absorbing aerosol index, acted to suppress daily rainfall anomaly, several times in a season, with lags of a few days. A higher frequency of prolonged rainfall breaks, longer than seven days, occurred in these regions. Previous studies point to monsoon rainfall weakening linked to an asymmetric inter-hemispheric energy balance change attributed to aerosols, and short-term rainfall enhancement from radiative effects of aerosols. In contrast, this study uncovers intraseasonal short-term rainfall suppression, from coincident aerosol forcing over the monsoon region, leading to aggravation of monsoon break spells. Prolonged and intense breaks in the monsoon in India are associated with rainfall deficits, which have been linked to reduced food grain production in the latter half of the twentieth century.

On the Feasibility of Tracking the Monsoon History by Using Ancient Wind Direction Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallego, D.; Ribera, P.; Peña-Ortiz, C.; Vega, I.; Gómez, F. D. P.; Ordoñez-Perez, P.; Garcia-Hererra, R.

2015-12-01

In this work, we use old wind direction records to reconstruct indices for the West African Monsoon (WAM) and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Since centuries ago, ships departing from the naval European powers circumnavigated Africa in their route to the Far East. Most of these ships took high-quality observations preserved in logbooks. We show that wind direction observations taken aboard ships can be used to track the seasonal wind reversal typical of monsoonal circulations. The persistence of the SW winds in the 20W-17W and 7N-13N region is highly correlated with the WAM strength and Sahel's precipitation. It has been possible to build a WAM index back to the 19th Century. Our results show that in the Sahel, the second half of the 19thCentury was significantly wetter than present day. The relation of the WAM with the ENSO cycle, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was low and instable from the 1840s to the 1970s, when they abruptly suffered an unprecedented reinforcement which last up to the present day. The persistence of the SSW wind in the 60E-80E and 8N-12N area has been used to track the ISM onset since the 1880s. We found evidences of later than average onset dates during the 1900-1925 and 1970-1990 periods and earlier than average onset between 1940 and 1965. A significant relation between the ISM onset and the PDO restricted to shifts from negative to positive PDO phases has been found. The most significant contribution of our study is the fact that we have shown that it is possible to build consistent monsoon indices of instrumental character using solely direct observations of wind direction. Our indices have been generated by using data currently available in the ICOADS 2.5 database, but a large amount of wind observations for periods previous to the 20thcentury still remain not explored in thousands of logbooks preserved in British archives. The interest of unveil these data to track the monsoons for more than 200 -or even 300 years- it is

Why the Australian Monsoon Strengthened During the Cold Last Glacial Maximum?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.; Ning, L.

2017-12-01

The multi-model ensemble simulation suggests that the global monsoon and most sub-monsoons are weakened during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) due to the lower green-house gases concentration, the presence of the ice-sheets and the weakened seasonal distribution of insolation. In contrast, the Australian monsoon is strengthened during the LGM. The precipitation there increases in austral summer and decreases in austral winter, so that the annual range or monsoonality increases. The strengthened monsoonality is mainly due to the decreased precipitation in austral winter, which is primarily caused by circulation changes, although the reduced atmospheric water vapor also has a moderate contribution. On the other hand, the strengthened Australian summer monsoon rainfall is likely caused by the change of land-sea thermal contrast due to the alteration of land-sea configuration and by the asymmetric change in sea surface temperature (SST) over Indo-Pacific warm pool region. The strengthened land-sea thermal contrast and Western Pacific-Eastern Indian Ocean thermal gradients in the pre-summer monsoon season triggers a cyclonic wind anomaly that is maintained to the monsoon season, thereby increasing summer precipitation. The increased summer precipitation is associated with the increased cloud cover over the land and decreased cloud cover over the ocean. This may weaken the land-sea thermal contrast, which agrees with the paleoclimate reconstruction. The biases between different models are likely related to the different responses of SST over the North Atlantic Ocean in the pre-summer monsoon season.

Monsoon Variability in the Arabian Sea from Enhanced and Standard Horizontal Resolution Coupled Climate Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClean, J.; Veneziani, C.; Maltrud, M. E.; Taylor, M.; Bader, D. C.; Branstetter, M. L.; Evans, K. J.; Mahajan, S.

2016-02-01

The circulation of the upper ocean in the Arabian Sea switches direction seasonally due to the change in direction of the prevailing winds associated with the Indian Monsoon. Predictability of the monsoon circulation, however, is uncertain due to incomplete understanding of the physical processes operating on the monsoon and other time scales, particularly interannual and intraseasonal. We use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with enhanced horizontal resolution in each of its components relative to standard coupled climate model resolution, to better understand these time scale interactions. A standard resolution CESM counterpart is used to assess how horizontal resolution impacts the depiction of these processes. In the enhanced resolution case, 0.25° Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5) is coupled to, among other components, the tripolar nominal 0.1° Parallel Ocean Program 2 (POP2). The fine resolution CESM simulation was run for 85 years; constant 1850 preindustrial forcing was used throughout the run, allowing us to isolate internal variability of the coupled system. Model parameters were adjusted ("tuned") to produce an acceptably small top of the atmosphere radiation imbalance. The reversal of the Somali Current (SC), the western boundary current off northeast Africa, has typically been associated with that of the monsoon. The SC reverses from southwestward in boreal winter to northeastward in summer; coastal upwelling is induced by the summer monsoonal winds. Recently it has been shown from new observations that the SC starts to reverse prior to the monsoon switch. Westward propagating Rossby waves have been implicated as responsible for the early SC reversal. We will discuss the sequencing of remote and local forcing on the timing of the spring inter-monsoonal switch in the direction of the SC and the appearance of the Great Whirl off the Oman Coast. Particularly, we consider how the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) acts to modify the seasonal strength and

Internal Dynamics and Boundary Forcing Characteristics Associated with Interannual Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.- M.; Kim, K.-M.; Yang, S.

1998-01-01

In this paper, we present a description of the internal dynamics and boundary forcing characteristics of two major components of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), i.e., the South Asian (SAM) and the Southeast-East Asian monsoon (SEAM). The description is based on a new monsoon-climate paradigm in which the variability of ASM is considered as the outcome of the interplay of a "fast" and an "intermediate" monsoon subsystem, under the influenced of the "slow" varying external forcings. Two sets of regional monsoon indices derived from dynamically consistent rainfall and wind data are used in this study. For SAM, the internal dynamics is represented by that of a "classical" monsoon system where the anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, i.e., generation of anomalous vorticity induced by an off-equatorial heat source is balanced by planetary vorticity advection. On the other hand, the internal dynamics of SEAM is characterized by a "hybrid" monsoon system featuring multi-cellular meridional circulation over the East Asian section, extending from the deep tropics to midlatitudes. These meridional-cells link tropical heating to extratropical circulation system via the East Asian jetstream, and are responsible for the characteristic occurrences of zonally oriented anomalous rainfall patterns over East Asian and the subtropical western Pacific. In the extratropical regions, the major upper level vorticity balance is by anomalous vorticity advection and generation by the anomalous divergent circulation. A consequence of this is that compared to SAM, the SEAM is associated with stronger teleconnection patterns to regions outside the ASM. A strong SAM is linked to basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation with significant signal in the equatorial eastern Pacific. During the boreal spring SST warming in the Arabian Sea and the subtropical western Pacific may lead to a strong SAM. For SEAM, interannual variability is tied to SSTA over the Sea of

Regional changes in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Indrani; Al-Tabbaa, Abir

2010-04-01

With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of monsoon climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important. This paper deals with the changes in frequency and magnitudes of extreme monsoon rainfall deficiency and excess in India from 1871 to 2005. Five regions across India comprising variable climates were selected for the study. Apart from changes in individual regions, changing tendencies in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess were also determined for the Indian region as a whole. The trends and their significance were assessed using non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The results show that intra-region variability for extreme monsoon seasonal precipitation is large and mostly exhibited a negative tendency leading to increasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall deficit and decreasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall excess.

Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Boos, William R.; Braconnot, Pascale; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kang, Sarah M.; Mapes, Brian E.; Scheff, Jacob; Schumacher, Courtney; Sobel, Adam H.; Xie, Shang-Ping

2018-06-01

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the intertropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations.

The Response of the North American Monsoon to Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, B. I.; Seager, R.

2013-01-01

[1] We analyze the response of the North American Monsoon (NAM) to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing (emissions scenario RCP 8.5) using new simulations available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Changes in total monsoon season rainfall with GHG warming are small and insignificant. The models do, however, show significant declines in early monsoon season precipitation (June-July) and increases in late monsoon season (September-October) precipitation, indicating a shift in seasonality toward delayed onset and withdrawal of the monsoon. Early in the monsoon season, tropospheric warming increases vertical stability, reinforced by reductions in available surface moisture, inhibiting precipitation and delaying the onset of the monsoon. By the end of the monsoon season, moisture convergence is sufficient to overcome the warming induced stability increases, and precipitation is enhanced. Even with no change in total NAM rainfall, shifts in the seasonal distribution of precipitation within the NAM region are still likely to have significant societal and ecological consequences, reinforcing the need to not only understand the magnitude, but also the timing, of future precipitation changes.

Development of an International Research Project of Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, C.

2006-05-01

Monson Asia has been recommended as one of the critical regions of integrated study of global change. Among a number of reasons, the most significant features of Monsoon Asia is that this is a region where the major features of landscape, such as vegetation, soil and water system are mainly developed under the most representative monsoon climate. On the other hand, the Monsoon Asia is a region with the most active human development. It has more than 5000 years long history of civilization and highest population density of the world, reaching 57 percent of word population. It also had the most rapid development in last decades and is projected to maintain its high growth rates in the foreseeable future. The human-monsoon system interactions and their linkages with the earth system dynamics could be a challenge issue of global change research and a sustainable Asia . A science plan of MAIRS is under drafting by SSC of MAIRS under the guidance of START and an international project office of MAIRS was formally opened in IAP/Chinese Academy of Sciences under the support of Chinese government. The overall objectives of the MAIRS that will combine field experiments, process studies, and modeling components are: 1) To better understand how human activities in regions are interacting with and altering natural regional variability of the atmospheric, terrestrial, and marine components of the environment; 2) To contribute to the provision of a sound scientific basis for sustainable regional development; 3) To develop a predictive capability of estimating changes in global-regional linkages in the Earth System and to recognize on a sound scientific basis the future consequences of such changes.

Testing a Flexible Method to Reduce False Monsoon Onsets

PubMed Central

Stiller-Reeve, Mathew Alexander; Spengler, Thomas; Chu, Pao-Shin

2014-01-01

To generate information about the monsoon onset and withdrawal we have to choose a monsoon definition and apply it to data. One problem that arises is that false monsoon onsets can hamper our analysis, which is often alleviated by smoothing the data in time or space. Another problem is that local communities or stakeholder groups may define the monsoon differently. We therefore aim to develop a technique that reduces false onsets for high-resolution gridded data, while also being flexible for different requirements that can be tailored to particular end-users. In this study, we explain how we developed our technique and demonstrate how it successfully reduces false onsets and withdrawals. The presented results yield improved information about the monsoon length and its interannual variability. Due to this improvement, we are able to extract information from higher resolution data sets. This implies that we can potentially get a more detailed picture of local climate variations that can be used in more local climate application projects such as community-based adaptations. PMID:25105900

Assessing the role of local air-sea interaction over the South Asia region in simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) using the new earth system model RegCM-ES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Sante, Fabio; Coppola, Erika; Farneti, Riccardo; Giorgi, Filippo

2017-04-01

The South Asia climate is dominated by the monsoon precipitation that divides the climate in two different seasons, the wet and dry seasons, and it influences the lives of billions of peoples. The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) has different temporal and spatial scales of variability and it is mainly driven by strong air sea interactions. The monsoon interannual variability (IAV) and the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of daily rainfall are the two most important scale of analysis of this phenomenon. In this work, the Regional Earth System Model (RegCM-ES) (Sitz et al, 2016) is used to simulate the South Asia climate. Several model settings are experimented to assess the sensitivity of the monsoon system like for example two different cumulous convection schemes (Tidtke, 1989 and Emanuel, 1991), two different lateral boundary conditions in the regional ocean model (NOAA/Geophysical 5 Fluid Dynamics Laboratory MOM run, Danabasoglu et al 2014; and ORAP reanalysis, Zuo et Al 2015) and two different hydrological models (Cetemps Hydrological Model, Coppola et al, 2007; Max-Planck's HD model, Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998) for a total of 5 coupled and uncoupled simulations all covering the period from 1979 to 2008. One of the main results of the analysis of the mini RegCM-ES ensemble shows that a better representation of the IAV and of the ENSO-monsoon relationship is present in the coupled simulations. Moreover a source of monsoon predictability has been found in the one-year-lag correlation between JJAS India precipitation and ENSO, this is only evident in the coupled system where the one-year-lagged correlation coefficient between the Niño-3.4 and the ISM rainfall is much higher respect to the uncoupled one and similar to values observed between the observations and the Niño-3.4. For the subseasonal time scale, RegCM-ES shows better performance compared to the standalone version of RegCM4 (Giorgi et al 2012), in reproducing "active" and "break" spells that characterize

Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October-December) season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadhuram, Y.; Maneesha, K.

2016-10-01

In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June-September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October-December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index - RI), is positively and significantly correlated ( r=0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984-2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993-2013. The average seasonal genesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993-2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a key role in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon season transport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.

Oblique propagation of monsoon gravity waves during the northern hemisphere 2007 summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurairajah, Brentha; Siskind, David E.; Bailey, Scott M.; Carstens, Justin N.; Russell, James M.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

2017-05-01

We present a combination of satellite observation and high-resolution model output to understand monsoon convection as a source of high-latitude mesospheric gravity waves (GWs). The GWs generated over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon region during the 2007 summer and the role of the winds in focusing these GWs toward the high-latitude middle atmosphere are analyzed using the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry/Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (SABER/TIMED) satellite temperature data and the high-resolution Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System-Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (NOGAPS/ALPHA) model results. In the NH, above the stratosphere, the monsoon GW Momentum Flux (GWMF) exhibits a poleward tilt that follows the slanted structure of the easterly jet. The correlation coefficients (>0.5) between the time series of NH tropical stratospheric GWMF and the global winds also have a slanted structure that coincide with the easterly jet, confirming the modeling theory that stratospheric monsoon GWs are refracted into the summer easterly jet and can reach the high-latitude mesosphere. Since Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs) are sensitive indicators of changes in the polar summer mesosphere, we compared the time series of tropical stratospheric GWMF to the PMC occurrence frequency (OF) obtained from the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size/Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere satellite data to assess the influence of this wave focusing in the mesosphere. There is a significant positive correlation between the high-latitude PMC OF and the tropical stratospheric GWMF suggesting a definite influence of monsoon GWs on the high-latitude mesosphere. The disagreement in correlation at the end of the PMC season is attributed to the enhancement of the quasi 5 day planetary wave dominating over the influence of monsoon GWs on PMCs.

On the climate model simulation of Indian monsoon low pressure systems and the effect of remote disturbances and systematic biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, Richard C.; Martin, Gill M.

2018-06-01

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) are synoptic-scale systems forming over the Indian monsoon trough region, contributing substantially to seasonal mean summer monsoon rainfall there. Many current global climate models (GCMs), including the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), show deficient rainfall in this region, much of which has previously been attributed to remote systematic biases such as excessive equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) convection, while also substantially under-representing LPS and associated rainfall as they travel westwards across India. Here the sources and sensitivities of LPS to local, remote and short-timescale forcing are examined, in order to understand the poor representation in GCMs. An LPS tracking method is presented using TRACK feature tracking software for comparison between re-analysis data-sets, MetUM GCM and regional climate model (RCM) simulations. RCM simulations, at similar horizontal resolution to the GCM and forced with re-analysis data at the lateral boundaries, are carried out with different domains to examine the effects of remote biases. The results suggest that remote biases contribute significantly to the poor simulation of LPS in the GCM. As these remote systematic biases are common amongst many current GCMs, it is likely that GCMs are intrinsically capable of representing LPS, even at relatively low resolution. The main problem areas are time-mean excessive EIO convection and poor representation of precursor disturbances transmitted from the Western Pacific. The important contribution of the latter is established using RCM simulations forced by climatological 6-hourly lateral boundary conditions, which also highlight the role of LPS in moving rainfall from steep orography towards Central India.

Objective spatiotemporal proxy-model comparisons of the Asian monsoon for the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Ammann, C. M.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G.; Wright, W. E.; Davi, N.; Li, J.

2008-12-01

The Asian monsoon system can be studied using a complementary proxy/simulation approach which evaluates climate models using estimates of past precipitation and temperature, and which subsequently applies the best understanding of the physics of the climate system as captured in general circulation models to evaluate the broad-scale dynamics behind regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we use a millennial-length climate field reconstruction of monsoon season summer (JJA) drought, developed from tree- ring proxies, with coupled climate simulations from NCAR CSM1.4 and CCSM3 to evaluate the cause of large- scale persistent droughts over the last one thousand years. Direct comparisons are made between the external forced response within the climate model and the spatiotemporal field reconstruction. In order to identify patterns of drought associated with internal variability in the climate system, we use a model/proxy analog technique which objectively selects epochs in the model that most closely reproduce those observed in the reconstructions. The concomitant ocean-atmosphere dynamics are then interpreted in order to identify and understand the internal climate system forcing of low frequency monsoon variability. We examine specific periods of extensive or intensive regional drought in the 15th, 17th, and 18th centuries, many of which are coincident with major cultural changes in the region.

Source of moist air for the Asian summer monsoon lower stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Fu, R.; Wang, T.

2015-12-01

The Asian monsoon region is the most prominent moist center of lower stratospheric (LS) water vapor during boreal summer. However, the origin of such moist air is still unclear. Using Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations and a domain-filling forward trajectory model, we show that moist air originates mostly from the western Asian Monsoon region where dehydration temperatures are warmer than those on the eastside of the Asian monsoon region. On seasonal scale, a shift of convective and dehydration center from the eastern to western monsoon region from early to late summer may contribute to the increase of LS water vapor over the Asian monsoon region. An increasing convection over the west side of the monsoon region can significantly moisten the LS. Air detrained from convection ascends with enhanced large-scale rising motion and dehydrate mostly within this region under warmer temperature, thus anomalously higher water vapor concentration. After final dehydration, water vapor anomalies show an upper-eastward propagation across the Asian monsoon region. This is primarily due to that air parcels tend to arise across the tropopause layer over the western region (eastern Iranian Plateau and northwestern India) after final dehydration as simulated by the trajectory model. This work highlights the importance of transport pathway shift, induced by the convective regime shift, on both seasonal and intraseasonal variations of water vapor in the Asian monsoon LS.

Anomalies of the Asian Monsoon Induced by Aerosol Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, M. K.

2004-01-01

Impacts of aerosols on the Asian summer monsoon are studied using the NASA finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), with radiative forcing derived from three-dimensional distributions of five aerosol species i.e., black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport Model (GOCART). Results show that absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, induce large-scale upper-level heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, ushering in & early onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Absorbing aerosols also I i enhance lower-level heating and anomalous ascent over northern India, intensifying the Indian monsoon. Overall, the aerosol-induced large-scale surface' temperature cooling leads to a reduction of monsoon rainfall over the East Asia continent, and adjacent oceanic regions.

Regime shift of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to a persistent arid state: external forcing versus internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Ankur; Pradhan, Maheswar; Goswami, B. N.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

2017-11-01

The high propensity of deficient monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent in the recent 3 decades (seven deficient monsoons against 3 excess monsoon years) compared to the prior 3 decades has serious implications on the food and water resources in the country. Motivated by the need to understand the high occurrence of deficient monsoon during this period, we examine the change in predictability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its teleconnections with Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures between the two periods. The shift in the tropical climate in the late 1970s appears to be one of the major reasons behind this. We find an increased predictability of the ISM in the recent 3 decades owing to reduced `internal' interannual variability (IAV) due to the high-frequency modes, while the `external' IAV arising from the low-frequency modes has remained largely the same. The Indian Ocean Dipole-ISM teleconnection has become positive during the monsoon season in the recent period thereby compensating for the weakened ENSO-ISM teleconnection. The central Pacific El-Niño and the Indian Ocean (IO) warming during the recent 3 decades are working together to realise enhanced ascending motion in the equatorial IO between 70°E and 100°E, preconditioning the Indian monsoon system prone to a deficient state.

Identification of tipping elements of the Indian Summer Monsoon using climate network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

2015-04-01

Spatial and temporal variability of the rainfall is a vital question for more than one billion of people inhabiting the Indian subcontinent. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall is crucial for India's economy, social welfare, and environment and large efforts are being put into predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon. For predictability of the ISM, it is crucial to identify tipping elements - regions over the Indian subcontinent which play a key role in the spatial organization of the Indian monsoon system. Here, we use climate network approach for identification of such tipping elements of the ISM. First, we build climate networks of the extreme rainfall, surface air temperature and pressure over the Indian subcontinent for pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. We construct network of extreme rainfall event using observational satellite data from 1998 to 2012 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42V7) and reanalysis gridded daily rainfall data for a time period of 57 years (1951-2007) (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE). For the network of surface air temperature and pressure fields, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). Second, we filter out data by coarse-graining the network through network measures, and identify tipping regions of the ISM. Finally, we compare obtained results of the network analysis with surface wind fields and show that occurrence of the tipping elements is mostly caused by monsoonal wind circulation, migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Westerlies. We conclude that climate network approach enables to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to identify tipping regions of the ISM. Obtained tipping elements deserve a

Tropical cyclone influence on the long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, Hisayuki; Shirooka, Ryuichi; Matsumoto, Jun; Cayanan, Esperanza O.; Hilario, Flaviana D.

2017-12-01

The long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset from 1903 to 2013 was investigated. The onset date is defined by daily rainfall data at eight stations in the northwestern Philippines. Summer monsoons tended to start earlier in May after the mid-1990s. Other early onset periods were found during the 1900s, 1920s, and 1930s, and an interdecadal variability of summer monsoon onset was identified. Independent surface wind data observed by ships in the South China Sea (SCS) revealed prevailing westerly wind in May during the early monsoon onset period. To identify atmospheric structures that trigger Philippine summer monsoon onset, we focused on the year 2013, conducting intensive upper-air observations. Tropical cyclone (TC) Yagi traveled northward in the Philippine Sea (PS) in 2013 and triggered the Philippine monsoon onset by intensifying moist low-level southwesterly wind in the southwestern Philippines and intensifying low-level southerly wind after the monsoon onset in the northwestern Philippines. The influence of TC was analyzed by the probability of the existence of TC in the PS and the SCS since 1951, which was found to be significantly correlated with the Philippine summer monsoon onset date. After the mid-1990s, early monsoon onset was influenced by active TC formation in the PS and the SCS. However, the role of TC activity decreased during the late summer monsoon periods. In general, it was found that TC activity in the PS and the SCS plays a key role in initiating Philippine summer monsoon onset. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Influence of southwest monsoons in the Kashmir Valley, western Himalayas.

PubMed

Jeelani, Ghulam; Deshpande, Rajendrakumar D; Shah, Rouf A; Hassan, Wasim

2017-08-01

The regional climate of the Himalayas is predominated by the southwest monsoons and the western disturbances. The uplift of the Pir Panjal to its present height is believed to restrict the southwest monsoons from entering into the Kashmir Valley in the western Himalayas. In the present study, monthly precipitation samples were collected across the Kashmir Valley from June 2013 to May 2014 for δ 18 O and δ 2 H analyses to constrain the influence of southwest monsoons in the valley. Except in August, the precipitation is enriched in 18 O and 2 H from June to September and depleted from October to May. The sharp depletion of 18 O in precipitation along with the decrease in d-excess in August confirm the maximum intrusion of southwest monsoons into the valley. A significant temperature - δ 18 O relationship was found during October and May (westerlies period) decreasing during June and September (southwest monsoon period). The local meteoric water line for the whole Kashmir Valley based on the precipitation-weighted monthly samples is [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]. Higher intercept of the regression equation suggested dominant contribution of precipitation from western disturbances. The study suggested that the southwest monsoons enter the Kashmir Valley from southwest through the mountainous passes.

Revisiting the Observed Correlation Between Weekly Averaged Indian Monsoon Precipitation and Arabian Sea Aerosol Optical Depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, D.; Miller, R. L.

2017-12-01

Dust influences the Indian summer monsoon on seasonal timescales by perturbing atmospheric radiation. On weekly time scales, aerosol optical depth retrieved by satellite over the Arabian Sea is correlated with Indian monsoon precipitation. This has been interpreted to show the effect of dust radiative heating on Indian rainfall on synoptic (few-day) time scales. However, this correlation is reproduced by Earth System Model simulations, where dust is present but its radiative effect is omitted. Analysis of daily variability suggests that the correlation results from the effect of precipitation on dust through the associated cyclonic circulation. Boundary layer winds that deliver moisture to India are responsible for dust outbreaks in source regions far upwind, including the Arabian Peninsula. This suggests that synoptic variations in monsoon precipitation over India enhance dust emission and transport to the Arabian Sea. The effect of dust radiative heating upon synoptic monsoon variations remains to be determined.

Revisiting the observed correlation between weekly averaged Indian monsoon precipitation and Arabian Sea aerosol optical depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Disha; Miller, Ron L.

2017-10-01

Dust influences the Indian summer monsoon on seasonal time scales by perturbing atmospheric radiation. On weekly time scales, aerosol optical depth retrieved by satellite over the Arabian Sea is correlated with Indian monsoon precipitation. This has been interpreted to show the effect of dust radiative heating on Indian rainfall on synoptic (few-day) time scales. However, this correlation is reproduced by Earth System Model simulations, where dust is present but its radiative effect is omitted. Analysis of daily variability suggests that the correlation results from the effect of precipitation on dust through the associated cyclonic circulation. Boundary layer winds that deliver moisture to India are responsible for dust outbreaks in source regions far upwind, including the Arabian Peninsula. This suggests that synoptic variations in monsoon precipitation over India enhance dust emission and transport to the Arabian Sea. The effect of dust radiative heating upon synoptic monsoon variations remains to be determined.

Interannual Variability of Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) and Asian Summer Monsoon Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, C.; Lau, W. K. M.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

The Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL), recently discovered from satellite observations, has drawn much attention on the need to study and better understand processes of atmospheric constituents' transportation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and the variability of the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). In this paper, based on analysis of 15 years (2001 - 2015) MERRA2 reanalysis data, we have investigated the interaction between the ATAL and monsoon dynamics and aerosol transport processes with respect to the variability of the AMA on interannual and intraseasonal time scales. Here, we present results showing that: (1) during pre- monsoon season, carbonaceous aerosols (CA), dust and carbon monoxide (CO)) accumulate along the southern slope of Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Sichuan Basin of southwestern China. Surface pollutants are lofted up to UTLS by strong vertical convection, advected by the anticyclonic flow within the AMA forming ATAL during peak monsoon season, (2) during strong monsoon years (2001, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015) the AMA peaks later, with stronger heating over TP and stronger ATAL, compared to weak monsoon years (2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013). Enhanced vertical transport was also found over the top of TP during strong monsoon years, in conjunction with an enlarged and northward-shifted AMA, while near surface region was suppressed because of heavy rainout, (3) inspite of stronger precipitation wash out more dust and are transported to Indo-Gangetic Plain, and from the top of the TP to the UTLS, during peak monsoon season due to the stronger westerlies. (4) spectral analysis of aerosol and monsoon winds, shows that the ATAL can be modulated by UTLS transport processes on monsoon intraseasonal oscillations with strong quasi- biweekly time scales during strong monsoon, and strong 20-30 day quasi-periodicity during weak monsoon years.

Influence of large-scale climate modes on dynamical complexity patterns of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Donner, Reik V.; Stolbova, Veronika; Balasis, Georgios; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-04-01

Indian Summer monsoon is one of the most anticipated and important weather events with vast environmental, economical and social effects. Predictability of the Indian Summer Monsoon strength is crucial question for life and prosperity of the Indian population. In this study, we are attempting to uncover the relationship between the spatial complexity of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall patterns, and the monsoon strength, in an effort to qualitatively determine how spatial organization of the rainfall patterns differs between strong and weak instances of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Here, we use observational satellite data from 1998 to 2012 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42V7) and reanalysis gridded daily rainfall data for a time period of 57 years (1951-2007) (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE). In order to capture different aspects of the system's dynamics, first, we convert rainfall time series to binary symbolic sequences, exploring various thresholding criteria. Second, we apply the Shannon entropy formulation (in a block-entropy sense) using different measures of normalization of the resulting entropy values. Finally, we examine the effect of various large-scale climate modes such as El-Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole, on the emerging complexity patterns, and discuss the possibility for the utilization of such pattern maps in the forecasting of the spatial variability and strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon.

Late Holocene SST and primary productivity variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea as a recorder for winter monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böll, Anna; Gaye, Birgit; Lückge, Andreas

2014-05-01

Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Strong south-westerly winds during the summer monsoon induce upwelling of nutrient rich waters along the coast off Somalia, Oman and southwest India, which result in high rates of primary production. In the northeastern Arabian Sea off Pakistan on the other hand, primary production and sea surface temperatures are linked to northeast monsoonal winds that cool the sea surface and drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity during the winter season. In this study, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and δ15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin to establish the first high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene. Over the last 2400 years reconstructed SST in the northeastern Arabian Sea decreased whereas productivity increased, imaging a long-term trend of northeast monsoon strengthening in response to insolation-induced southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The comparison of our winter monsoon record with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that summer and winter monsoon strength was essentially anti-correlated over the late Holocene throughout the Asian monsoon system. In addition, SST variations recorded off Pakistan match very well with Northern Hemisphere temperature records supporting the growing body of evidence that Asian climate is linked to Northern Hemisphere climate change. It reveals a consistent pattern of increased summer monsoon activity in the northeastern Arabian Sea during northern hemispheric warm periods (Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period) and strengthened winter monsoon activity during hemispheric colder periods (Little Ice Age).

Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

2018-02-01

Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

Stratospheric Water Vapor and the Asian Monsoon: An Adjoint Model Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Mark A.; Andrews, Arlyn E.

2003-01-01

A new adjoint model of the Goddard Parameterized Chemistry and Transport Model is used to investigate the role that the Asian monsoon plays in transporting water to the stratosphere. The adjoint model provides a unique perspective compared to non-diffusive and non-mixing Lagrangian trajectory analysis. The quantity of water vapor transported from the monsoon and the pathways into the stratosphere are examined. The emphasis is on the amount of water originating from the monsoon that contributes to the tropical tape recorder signal. The cross-tropopause flux of water from the monsoon to the midlatitude lower stratosphere will also be discussed.

Influence of the Indian monsoon and the subtropical jet on climate change on the Tibetan Plateau since the late Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Juzhi; D'Andrea, William J.; Wang, Mingda; He, Yue; Liang, Jie

2017-05-01

Precipitation atop the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is delivered by the Indian summer monsoon, the Asian summer monsoon, and weather systems associated with the subtropical westerly jet. Variations in the relative importance of the monsoon systems and the westerly jet are hypothesized to have occurred at decadal, millennial and glacial-interglacial scales. However, paleoclimate observations based on explicit climate proxies are still scarce, limiting our understanding of the mechanisms of Holocene climate variability on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here we present three independently dated compound specific hydrogen isotope records of sedimentary leaf waxes from lakes on the TP, Bangong Co, Lake Qinghai and Linggo Co. The leaf wax δD records reflect isotopes in precipitation, and we combine these observations with existing isotopic and hydrological data to investigate variations in the influence of the summer monsoon and the westerly jet on the moisture budget of the TP since the Late Pleistocene. δD values of precipitation at all three lakes were relatively positive during the Late Pleistocene indicating a weakened summer monsoon. During the early and mid-Holocene, δD values of precipitation at the three lakes were relatively negative, suggesting the importance of summer monsoon. During the middle to late Holocene, δD values at Bangong Co and Lake Qinghai gradually increased with superimposed episodes of short term of δD variability. However, at Linggo Co in the northern TP, periods of more positive δD values of precipitation correspond to wetter intervals inferred from lake level high stands, and likely reflect variations in moisture associated with the westerly jet. Thus, the δD records at Linggo Co imply the lesser importance of summer monsoon moisture in the hydrologic budget of the northern TP. Collectively, the hydrogen isotope records at these three lakes document millennial and centennial scale variations in the strength of the summer monsoon systems and

Predicting summer monsoon of Bhutan based on SST and teleconnection indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorji, Singay; Herath, Srikantha; Mishra, Binaya Kumar; Chophel, Ugyen

2018-02-01

The paper uses a statistical method of predicting summer monsoon over Bhutan using the ocean-atmospheric circulation variables of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea-level pressure (MSLP), and selected teleconnection indices. The predictors are selected based on the correlation. They are the SST and MSLP of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea and the MSLP of Bangladesh and northeast India. The Northern Hemisphere teleconnections of East Atlantic Pattern (EA), West Pacific Pattern (WP), Pacific/North American Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR). The rainfall station data are grouped into two regions with principal components analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm. A support vector machine for regression model is proposed to predict the monsoon. The model shows improved skills over traditional linear regression. The model was able to predict the summer monsoon for the test data from 2011 to 2015 with a total monthly root mean squared error of 112 mm for region A and 33 mm for region B. Model could also forecast the 2016 monsoon of the South Asia Monsoon Outlook of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for Bhutan. The reliance on agriculture and hydropower economy makes the prediction of summer monsoon highly valuable information for farmers and various other sectors. The proposed method can predict summer monsoon for operational forecasting.

Mesoscale convective systems and nocturnal rainfall over the West African Sahel: role of the Inter-tropical front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.

2018-01-01

A convection-permitting regional model simulation for August 2006 and observations are evaluated to better understand the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Sahel. In particular, reasons for a nocturnal rainfall maximum over parts of the Sahel during the height of the West African monsoon are investigated. A relationship between mesoscale convective system (MCS) activity and inter-tropical front (ITF)/dryline dynamics is revealed. Over 90% of the Sahel nocturnal rainfall derives from propagating MCSs that have been associated with topography in earlier studies. In contrast, in this case study, 70-90% of the nocturnal rainfall over the southern Sahel (11°N-14°N) west of 15°E is associated with MCSs that originate less than 1000 km upstream (to the north and east) in the afternoon, in a region largely devoid of significant orography. This MCS development occurs in association with the Sahel ITF, combined with atmospheric pre-conditioning. Daytime surface heating generates turbulent mixing that promotes planetary boundary layer (PBL) growth accompanied by a low-level reversal in the meridional flow. This enhances wind convergence in the low-level moist layer within 2°-3° of latitude of the equatorward side of the ITF. MCSs tend to form when this vertical mixing extends to the level of free convection and is accompanied by a mid-tropospheric African easterly wave disturbance to the east. This synoptic disturbance enhances the vertical wind shear and atmospheric instability over the genesis location. These results are found to be robust across the region.

Trace gas transport out of the Indian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomsche, Laura; Pozzer, Andrea; Zimmermann, Peter; Parchatka, Uwe; Fischer, Horst

2016-04-01

The trace gas transport out of the Indian summer monsoon was investigated during the aircraft campaign OMO (Oxidation Mechanism Observations) with the German research aircraft HALO (High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft) in July/August 2015. HALO was based at Paphos/Cyprus and also on Gan/Maledives. Flights took place over the Mediterranean Sea, the Arabian Peninsula and the Arabian Sea. In this work the focus is on the distribution of carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4) in the upper troposphere. They were measured with the laser absorption spectrometer TRISTAR on board of HALO. During the Indian summer monsoon strong convection takes place over India and the Bay of Bengal. In this area the population is high accompanied by many emission sources e.g. wetlands and cultivation of rice. Consequently the boundary layer is polluted containing high concentrations of trace gases like methane and carbon monoxide. Due to vertical transport these polluted air masses are lifted to the upper troposphere. Here they circulate with the so called Asian monsoon anticyclone. In the upper troposphere polluted air masses lead to a change in the chemical composition thus influence the chemical processes. Furthermore the anticyclone spreads the polluted air masses over a larger area. Thus the outflow of the anticyclone in the upper troposphere leads to higher concentrations of trace gases over the Arabian Sea, the Arabian Peninsula and also over the eastern part of North Africa and the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. During OMO higher concentrations of methane and carbon monoxide were detected at altitudes between 11km and 15km. The highest measured concentrations of carbon monoxide and methane were observed over Oman. The CO concentration in the outflow of the monsoon exceeds background levels by 10-15ppb. However the enhancement in the concentration is not obviously connected to the monsoon due to the natural variability in the troposphere. The enhancement in the

Measuring Holocene Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation through Lake Sedimentary Proxies, Eastern Tibet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perello, M. M.; Bird, B. W.; Lei, Y.; Polissar, P. J.; Thompson, L. G.; Yao, T.

2017-12-01

The Tibetan Plateau is the headwaters of several major river systems in South Asia, which serve as essential water resources for more than 40% of the world's population. The majority of regional precipitation that sustains these water resources is from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which can experience considerably variability in response to local and remote forcings and teleconnections. Despite the ISM's importance, its sensitivity to long term and abrupt changes in climatic boundary conditions is not well established with the modern instrumental record or the available body of paleoclimate data. Here, we present results from an ongoing study that utilizes lake sediment records to provide a longer record of relative levels of precipitation and lake level during the monsoon season. The sediments cores used in this study were collected from five lakes along an east-west transect in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (87-95°E). Using these records, we assess temporal and spatial variability in the intensity of the ISM throughout the Holocene on decadal frequencies. Multiple proxies, including sedimentology, grain size, geochemistry, terrestrial and aquatic leaf wax isotopes, and diatom community assemblages, are used to assess paleo-precipitation and lake level. Preliminary records from our lakes indicate regional trends in monsoon strength, with higher lake levels in the Early Holocene, but with greater variability in the Late Holocene than in other regional paleoclimate records. We have also observed weak responses in our lakes to the Late Holocene events, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. These paleoclimate reconstructions furthers our understanding of strong versus weak monsoon intensities and can be incorporated in climate models for predicting future monsoon conditions.

The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunning, C. M.; Turner, A. G.; Brayshaw, D. J.

2015-06-01

India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterized by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterized by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in

Prediction of Indian Summer-Monsoon Onset Variability: A Season in Advance.

PubMed

Pradhan, Maheswar; Rao, A Suryachandra; Srivastava, Ankur; Dakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Shameera, K S

2017-10-27

Monsoon onset is an inherent transient phenomenon of Indian Summer Monsoon and it was never envisaged that this transience can be predicted at long lead times. Though onset is precipitous, its variability exhibits strong teleconnections with large scale forcing such as ENSO and IOD and hence may be predictable. Despite of the tremendous skill achieved by the state-of-the-art models in predicting such large scale processes, the prediction of monsoon onset variability by the models is still limited to just 2-3 weeks in advance. Using an objective definition of onset in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the skillful prediction of onset variability is feasible under seasonal prediction framework. The better representations/simulations of not only the large scale processes but also the synoptic and intraseasonal features during the evolution of monsoon onset are the comprehensions behind skillful simulation of monsoon onset variability. The changes observed in convection, tropospheric circulation and moisture availability prior to and after the onset are evidenced in model simulations, which resulted in high hit rate of early/delay in monsoon onset in the high resolution model.

Did Aboriginal vegetation burning affect the Australian summer monsoon?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-08-01

For thousands of years, Aboriginal Australians burned forests, creating grasslands. Some studies have suggested that in addition to changing the landscape, these burning practices also affected the timing and intensity of the Australian summer monsoon. Different vegetation types can alter evaporation, roughness, and surface reflectivity, leading to changes in the weather and climate. On the basis of an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model, Notaro et al. conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of decreased vegetation cover on the summer monsoon in northern Australia. They found that although decreased vegetation cover would have had only minor effects during the height of the monsoon season, during the premonsoon season, burning-induced vegetation loss would have caused significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature. Thus, by burning forests, Aboriginals altered the local climate, effectively extending the dry season and delaying the start of the monsoon season. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047774, 2011)

Global Monsoon Change During the Last Glacial Maximum: A Multi-Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

Change of Global Monsoon (GM) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is investigated using results from the multi-model ensemble of 7 coupled climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The GM changes during LGM are identified by comparison of the results from the pre-industrial control run and the LGM run. The results show (1) The annual mean GM precipitation and GM domain are reduced by about 10% and 5%, respectively; (2) The monsoon intensity (demonstrated by the local summer-minus-winter precipitation) is also weakened over most monsoon regions except Australian monsoon; (3) The monsoon precipitation is reduced more during the local summer than winter; (4) Distinct from all other regional monsoons, the Australian monsoon is strengthened and the monsoon area is enlarged. Four major factors contribute to these changes. The lower greenhouse gas concentration and the presence of the ice sheets decrease air temperature and water vapor content, resulting in a general weakening of the GM precipitation and reduction of GM domain. The reduced hemispheric difference in seasonal variation of insolation may contribute to the weakened GM intensity. The changed land-ocean configuration in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent, along with the presence of the ice sheets and lower greenhouse gas concentration, result in strengthened land-ocean and North-South hemispheric thermal contrasts, leading to the unique strengthened Australian monsoon. Although some of the results are consistent with the proxy data, uncertainties remain in different models. More comparison is needed between proxy data and model experiments to better understand the changes of the GM during the LGM.

Adaptation for Planting and Irrigation Decisions to Changing Monsoon Regime in Northeast India: Risk-based Hydro-economic Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Cai, X.

2013-12-01

Delay in onset of Indian summer monsoon becomes increasingly frequent. Delayed monsoon and occasional monsoon failures seriously affect agricultural production in the northeast as well as other parts of India. In the Vaishali district of the Bihar State, Monsoon rainfall is very skewed and erratic, often concentrating in shorter durations. Farmers in Vaishali reported that delayed Monsoon affected paddy planting and, consequently delayed cropping cycle, putting crops under the risks of 'terminal heat.' Canal system in the district does not function due to lack of maintenance; irrigation relies almost entirely on groundwater. Many small farmers choose not to irrigate when monsoon onset is delayed due to high diesel price, leading to reduced production or even crop failure. Some farmers adapt to delayed onset of Monsoon by planting short-duration rice, which gives the flexibility for planting the next season crops. Other sporadic autonomous adaptation activities were observed as well, with various levels of success. Adaptation recommendations and effective policy interventions are much needed. To explore robust options to adapt to the changing Monsoon regime, we build a stochastic programming model to optimize revenues of farmer groups categorized by landholding size, subject to stochastic Monsoon onset and rainfall amount. Imperfect probabilistic long-range forecast is used to inform the model onset and rainfall amount probabilities; the 'skill' of the forecasting is measured using probabilities of correctly predicting events in the past derived through hindcasting. Crop production functions are determined using self-calibrating Positive Mathematical Programming approach. The stochastic programming model aims to emulate decision-making behaviors of representative farmer agents through making choices in adaptation, including crop mix, planting dates, irrigation, and use of weather information. A set of technological and policy intervention scenarios are tested

Water vapour variability during Indian monsoon over Trivandrum observed using Microwave Radiometer and GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, Suresh C.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Ramachandran Pillai, Renju; Uma, K. N.; Saha, Korak

2012-07-01

The Indian summer monsoon is a highly regular synoptic event, providing most of the annual rainfall received over the sub-continent. Trivandrum, at the southwestern tip of Indian peninsula, is considered as the gate way of Indian monsoon, with its climatological onset on June 01. During this season, the region, experiences large seasonal variation in water vapor, rain fall and wind (speed and direction) in the troposphere. The variability in water vapor and wind information are the vital parameters in forecasting the onset of monsoon. This study focuses on water vapor measurements over the tropical coastal station Trivandrum (8.5oN & 76.9oE) using microwave techniques and the analyses with an effort to link the seasonal variability of water vapor with the onset of monsoon. At Trivandrum a hyper-spectral microwave radiometer profiler (MRP) and a Triple-frequency global positioning system receiver (GPS) have been in regular operation since April 2010. A station-dependent simple empirical relation suitable for the equatorial atmospheric condition is formulated to map the nonhydrostatic component of GPS tropospheric delay to the PWV, based on the columnar water vapor estimated from the multi-year daily radiosonde ascends from Trivandrum. A trained artificial neural network (ANN) with climatological atmospheric data of Trivandrum, is employed to derive the water vapor from the MRP brightness temperature measurements. The accuracy, reliability and consistency of PWV measurements over the tropical coastal station from these two independent instruments are assessed by comparing PWV derived from MRP and GPS measurements which resulted an rms deviation of <1.2mm (with correlation coefficient of ~0.98). This confirms the PWV derived over Trivandrum from microwave measurements are accurate even during the monsoon period in the presence of clouds and rain. PWV from microwave radiometer measurements for more than two years are used to study the water vapour variability during

The steady enhancement of the Australian Summer Monsoon in the last 200 years.

PubMed

Gallego, David; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Ribera, Pedro

2017-11-23

A new bicentennial series of the Australian monsoon strength based on historical wind observations has allowed for the assessment of the variability of this system since the early 19th century. Our series covers a period in which the scarcity of meteorological observations in the area had precluded the evaluation of long-term climatic trends. Results indicate that the increase in precipitation over Northern Australia reported for the last 60 years is just a manifestation of a much longer lasting trend related to the strengthening of the Australian monsoon that has been occurring since at least 1816.

Trace gas variability within the Asian monsoon anticyclone on intraseasonal and interannual timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nützel, Matthias; Dameris, Martin; Fierli, Federico; Stiller, Gabriele; Garny, Hella; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-04-01

The Asian monsoon and the associated monsoon anticyclone have the potential of substantially influencing the composition of the UTLS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere) and hence global climate. Here we study the variability of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone in the UTLS on intraseasonal and interannual timescales using results from long term simulations performed with the CCM EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). In particular, we focus on specified dynamics simulations (Newtonian relaxation to ERA-Interim data) covering the period 1980-2013, which have been performed within the ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling) project (Jöckel et al., GMDD, 2015). Our main focus lies on variability of the anticyclone's strength (in terms of potential vorticity, geopotential and circulation) and variability in trace gas signatures (O3, H2O) within the anticyclone. To support our findings, we also include observations from satellites (MIPAS, MLS). Our work is linked to the EU StratoClim campaign in 2016.

Community level perceptions of the monsoon onset, withdrawal and climatic trends in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeve, M. A.; Abu Syed, M. D.; Hossain, P. R.; Maainuddi, G.; Mamnun, N.

2012-04-01

A structured questionnaire study was carried out in 6 different regions in Bangladesh in order to give insight into how the different communities define the monsoon. The respondents were asked how they define the monsoon onset and withdrawal, and by how much these can vary from year to year. They were also asked about how they perceive changes in onset and withdrawal dates and total monsoonal rainfall during the past 20 years. Bangladesh is a developing country with a large proportion of the population living in rural areas and employed in the agricultural sector. It is foreseen that these communities will be most affected by changes in the climate. These groups were considered to be the main stakeholders when considering climate change, due to the direct influence the monsoon has on their livelihood and the food supply for the entire nation. Agricultural workers were therefore the main group targeted in this study. The main aim of the study was to create a framework for defining the monsoon in order to increase the usability of results in future impact-related studies. Refining definitions according to the perceptions of the main stakeholders helps to achieve this goal. Results show that rainfall is the main parameter used in defining the monsoon onset and withdrawal. This is possibly intuitive, however the monsoon onset was considered to be considerably earlier than previous scientific studies. This could be due to pre-monsoonal rainfall, however the respondents defined this type of rainfall separately to what they called the monsoon. The monsoon is considered to start earliest in the Sylhet region in northeast Bangladesh.

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

PubMed

Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

2013-04-01

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

Interdecadal variability of El Niño onset and its impact on monsoon systems over areas encircling the Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jiaxi; Xu, Jianjun; Guan, Zhaoyong; Powell, Alfred M.

2016-10-01

Based on previous study by Xu and Chan (J Clim 14:418-433, 2001), two types of El Niño distinguished by the onset time, a Spring (SP) type and a Summer (SU) type, have been investigated from 1871 through 2011. As can be classified by the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomaly into the Warm Pool (WP) and Cold Tongue (CT) El Niño, the temporal features of the CT are dominated by the SP events whereas the SU events mostly display the spatial pattern of WP or Mixed events. The approximate 140-year data analysis shows that the frequency of SP events tends to increase in the most recent 30 years (1980-2009) while the SU events show very strong activity in the beginning of the twentieth century (1900-1929), which are closely associated with the decadal changes in oceanic and atmospheric background conditions. The air-sea processes indicate that the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between tropical and extratropical Pacific Ocean on decadal time scales is related to the sea level pressure distribution, which tends to produce wind anomalies. The wind anomalies in turn affect the SST anomalies on inter-annual time scales over the equatorial areas and finally result in the early onset of El Niño in SP time or late onset of El Nino in SU time. A spring onset El Niño favors a Kelvin wave that propagates across the basin and a summer onset favors a Kelvin wave that does not traverse the basin or the related effects are not strong enough. The early or late onset of El Niño significantly impacts the precipitation distribution correlated with the monsoon systems including the Asian-Australian monsoon and North-South American monsoon. The El Niño-monsoon relationship is modulated by decadal changes in atmospheric and oceanic background conditions. The precipitation in the monsoonal area circling the Pacific Ocean exhibits characteristic quasi-biennial variations that are closely associated with the onset time of El Niño events, especially with

Pre-Monsoon Drought and Heat Waves in India

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-09-12

In June 2015, news organizations around the world reported on a deadly heat wave in India that killed more than 2,300 people. Prior to the arrival of the summer monsoon in India, weather conditions had been extremely hot and dry. Such conditions can lead to economic and agricultural disaster, human suffering and loss of life. NASA satellite sensors are allowing scientists to characterize pre-monsoon droughts and heat waves and postulate their scientific cause. This figure shows the longitude-time variations, averaged between 21 and 22 degrees North, across the middle of the India subcontinent from mid-April to mid-June. Longitude from the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal is represented on the horizontal axis; while the vertical axis shows the timeframe. Rainfall is shown on the left, soil moisture is in the center, and surface air temperature is on the right. For both years (2012 and 2015), the summer monsoon begins in June, with sharp rises in rainfall and soil moisture, and a sharp drop in air temperature. The hottest and driest weeks occurred just before the summer monsoon onsets. Similar dry and hot periods, varying from one to a few weeks, were observed in 2013 and 2014. Soil moisture as an indication of drought as measured by NASA's Aquarius mission was first available in 2012. Rainfall data are from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and surface air temperature is from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The TRMM and Aquarius missions ended in April 2015, before the drought and heat waves. Their data were replaced by those presently available from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP) and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) to show the drought and heatwave in 2015. Scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, have shown that during the summer monsoon season, moisture is transported into the India Subcontinent from the Arabian Sea and out to the Bay of Bengal

Evaluation of different rainfall products over India for the summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, Satya; Mitra, Ashis; Turner, Andrew; Collins, Mathew; AchutoRao, Krishna

2015-04-01

Summer rainfall over India forms an integral part of the Asian monsoon, which plays a key role in the global water cycle and climate system through coupled atmospheric and oceanic processes. Accurate prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its variability at various spatiotemporal scales are crucial for agriculture, water resources and hydroelectric-power sectors. Reliable rainfall observations are very important for verification of numerical model outputs and model development. However, high spatiotemporal variability of rainfall makes it difficult to measure adequately with ground-based instruments over a large region of various surface types from deserts to oceans. A number of multi-satellite rainfall products are available to users at different spatial and temporal scales. Each rainfall product has some advantages as well as limitations, hence it is essential to find a suitable region-specific data set among these rainfall products for a particular user application, such as water resources, agricultural modelling etc. In this study, we examine seasonal-mean and daily rainfall datasets for monsoon model validation. First, six multi-satellite and gauge-only rainfall products were evaluated over India at seasonal scale for 27 (JJAS 1979-2005) summer monsoon seasons against gridded 0.5-degree IMD gauge-based rainfall. Various skill metrics are computed to assess the potential of these data sets in representation of large-scale monsoon rainfall at all-India and sub-regional scales. Among the gauge-only data sets, APHRODITE and GPCC appear to outperform the others whereas GPCP is better than CMAP in the merged multi-satellite category. However, there are significant differences among these data sets indicating uncertainty in the observed rainfall over this region, with important implications for the evaluation of model simulations. At the daily scale, TRMM TMPA-3B42 is one of the best available products and is widely used for various hydro

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2018-06-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2017-08-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

Monsoon extremes and society over the past millennium on mainland Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buckley, Brendan M.; Fletcher, Roland; Wang, Shi-Yu Simon; Zottoli, Brian; Pottier, Christophe

2014-07-01

The early 21st century has seen vigorous scientific interest in the Asian monsoon and significant development of paleo-proxies of monsoon strength. These include the Monsoon Asian Drought Atlas - a 700-year, gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate derived from 327 tree ring records - and several long speleothem records from China and India. Similar progress has been made on the study of monsoon climate dynamics through re-analysis data products and General Circulation Model diagnostics. The story has emerged of a variable monsoon over the latter Holocene, with extended droughts and anomalously wet episodes that occasionally and profoundly influenced the course of human history. We focus on Southeast Asia where an anomalous period of unstable climate coincided with the demise of the capital of the Khmer Empire at Angkor between the 14th and the 16th centuries, and we suggest that protracted periods of drought and deluge rain events, the latter of which damaged Angkor's extensive water management systems, may have been a significant factor in the subsequent transfer of the political capital away from Angkor. The late 16th and early 17th century experienced climate instability and the collapse of the Ming Dynasty in China under a period of drought, while Tonkin experienced floods and droughts throughout the 17th century. The 18th century was a period of great turmoil across Southeast Asia, when all of the region's polities saw great unrest and rapid realignment during one of the most extended periods of drought of the past millennium. New paleo-proxy records and the incorporation of historical documentation will improve future analyses of the interaction between climate extremes, social behavior and the collapse or disruption of regional societies, a subject of increasing concern given the uncertainties surrounding projections for future climate.

The more extreme nature of North American monsoon precipitation in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Luong, T. M.; Castro, C. L.; Lahmers, T. M.; Adams, D. K.; Ochoa-Moya, C.

2017-12-01

Most severe weather in the Southwestern United States occurs during the North American monsoon. This research examines how monsoon extreme weather events will change with respect to occurrence and intensity. A new technique to severe weather event projection has been developed, using convective perimitting regional atmospheric modeling of days with highest instabilty and atmospheric moisture. The guiding principle is to use a weather forecast based approach to climate change project, with a modeling paradigm in which organized convective structures and their behavior are explicitly physically represented in the simulation design. Of particular interest is the simulation of severe weather events caused by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which account for a greater proportion of monsoon rainfall downwind of the Mogollon Rim in Arizona, in the central and southwestern portions of the state. The convective-permitting model simulations are performed for identified severe weather event days for both historical and future climate projections, similar to an operational weather forecast. There have been significant long-term changes in atmospheric thermodynamic and dynamic conditions that have occurred over the past sixty years. Monsoon thunderstorms are tending to be more 'thermodynamically dominated' with less tendency to organize and propagate. Though there are tending to be a fewer number of strong, organized MCS-type convective events during the monsoon, when they do occur their associated precipitation is now tending to be more intense. The area of central and southwestern Arizona, corresponding to the area of the state most impacted by MCSs during the monsoon, appears to be a local hot spot where precipitation and downdraft winds are becoming more intense. These types of changes are very consistent with the historical observed precipitation data and model projections of historical and future climate, from dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models.

Origins of the Asian-Australian monsoons related to Cenozoic plate movement and Tibetan Plateau uplift - A modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Dong, B.; Yin, Z. Y.; Smith, R. S.; Guo, Q.

2017-12-01

The origin of monsoon is a subject that has attracted much attention in the scientific community and even today it is still controversial. According to geological records, there is conflicting evidence regarding the timings of establishment of the monsoon climates in South Asia, East Asia, and northern Australia. Additionally, different explanations for the monsoon origins have been derived from various numerical simulations. To further investigate the origin and evolution of the Asian and Australian monsoons, we designed a series of numerical experiments using a coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model. Since the Indian-Australian plate has shifted its position significantly during the Cenozoic, together with the large-scale uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), in these experiments we considered the configurations of ocean-land masses and large topographic features based on geological evidence of plate motion and TP uplift in 5 typical Cenozoic geological periods: mid-Paleocene ( 60Ma), late-Eocene ( 40Ma), late-Oligocene ( 25Ma), late-Miocene ( 10Ma), and present day. These experiments allowed us to examine the combined effects of the changes in the land-ocean configuration due to plate movement and TP uplift, they also provided insight into the effects of the high CO2 levels during the Eocene. The simulations revealed that during the Paleocene, the Indian Subcontinent was still positioned in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and, therefore, its climate behaved as the SH tropical monsoon. By the late Eocene, it moved into the tropical Northern Hemisphere, which allowed the establishment of the South Asian monsoon. In contrast, the East Asian and Australian monsoon did not exist in the late Oligocene. These monsoon systems were established in the Miocene and then enhanced thereafter. Establishments of the low-latitude monsoons in South Asia and Australia were entirely determined by the position of the Indian-Australian plate and not related to the TP uplift

Long-term variability in the date of monsoon onset over western India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamson, George C. D.; Nash, David J.

2013-06-01

The date of onset of the southwest monsoon in western India is critical for farmers as it influences the timing of crop plantation and the duration of the summer rainy season. Identifying long-term variability in the date of monsoon onset is difficult, however, as onset dates derived from the reanalysis of instrumental rainfall data are only available for the region from 1879. This study uses documentary evidence and newly uncovered instrumental data to reconstruct annual monsoon onset dates for western India for the period 1781-1878, extending the existing record by 97 years. The mean date of monsoon onset over the Mumbai (Bombay) area during the reconstruction period was 10 June with a standard deviation of 6.9 days. This is similar to the mean and standard deviation of the date of monsoon onset derived from instrumental data for the twentieth century. The earliest identified onset date was 23 May (in 1802 and 1839) and the latest 22 June (in 1825). The longer-term perspective provided by this study suggests that the climatic regime that governs monsoon advance over western India did not change substantially from 1781 to 1955. Monsoon onset over Mumbai has occurred at a generally later date since this time. Our results indicate that this change is unprecedented during the last 230 years. Following a discussion of the results, the nature of the relationship between the date of monsoon onset and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is discussed. This relationship is shown to have been stable since 1781.

Revised cloud processes to improve the mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon in climate forecast system: Part 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abhik, S.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Mahakur, M.; Ganai, Malay; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Dudhia, J.

2017-06-01

The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) is being used for operational monsoon prediction over the Indian region. Recent studies indicate that the moist convective process in CFS is one of the major sources of uncertainty in monsoon predictions. In this study, the existing simple cloud microphysics of CFS is replaced by the six-class Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) single moment (WSM6) microphysical scheme. Additionally, a revised convective parameterization is employed to improve the performance of the model in simulating the boreal summer mean climate and intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region. The revised version of the model (CFSCR) exhibits a potential to improve shortcomings in the seasonal mean precipitation distribution relative to the standard CFS (CTRL), especially over the ISM region. Consistently, notable improvements are also evident in other observed ISM characteristics. These improvements are found to be associated with a better simulation of spatial and vertical distributions of cloud hydrometeors in CFSCR. A reasonable representation of the subgrid-scale convective parameterization along with cloud hydrometeors helps to improve the convective and large-scale precipitation distribution in the model. As a consequence, the simulated low-frequency boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) exhibits realistic propagation and the observed northwest-southeast rainband is well reproduced in CFSCR. Additionally, both the high and low-frequency BSISOs are better captured in CFSCR. The improvement of low and high-frequency BSISOs in CFSCR is shown to be related to a realistic phase relationship of clouds.