Sample records for aftershock sequence model

  1. Aftershock occurrence rate decay for individual sequences and catalogs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyffenegger, Paul A.

    One of the earliest observations of the Earth's seismicity is that the rate of aftershock occurrence decays with time according to a power law commonly known as modified Omori-law (MOL) decay. However, the physical reasons for aftershock occurrence and the empirical decay in rate remain unclear despite numerous models that yield similar rate decay behavior. Key problems in relating the observed empirical relationship to the physical conditions of the mainshock and fault are the lack of studies including small magnitude mainshocks and the lack of uniformity between studies. We use simulated aftershock sequences to investigate the factors which influence the maximum likelihood (ML) estimate of the Omori-law p value, the parameter describing aftershock occurrence rate decay, for both individual aftershock sequences and "stacked" or superposed sequences. Generally the ML estimate of p is accurate, but since the ML estimated uncertainty is unaffected by whether the sequence resembles an MOL model, a goodness-of-fit test such as the Anderson-Darling statistic is necessary. While stacking aftershock sequences permits the study of entire catalogs and sequences with small aftershock populations, stacking introduces artifacts. The p value for stacked sequences is approximately equal to the mean of the individual sequence p values. We apply single-link cluster analysis to identify all aftershock sequences from eleven regional seismicity catalogs. We observe two new mathematically predictable empirical relationships for the distribution of aftershock sequence populations. The average properties of aftershock sequences are not correlated with tectonic environment, but aftershock populations and p values do show a depth dependence. The p values show great variability with time, and large values or changes in p sometimes precedes major earthquakes. Studies of teleseismic earthquake catalogs over the last twenty years have led seismologists to question seismicity models and

  2. Hysteretic energy prediction method for mainshock-aftershock sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhai, Changhai; Ji, Duofa; Wen, Weiping; Li, Cuihua; Lei, Weidong; Xie, Lili

    2018-04-01

    Structures located in seismically active regions may be subjected to mainshock-aftershock (MSAS) sequences. Strong aftershocks significantly affect the hysteretic energy demand of structures. The hysteretic energy, E H,seq, is normalized by mass m and expressed in terms of the equivalent velocity, V D,seq, to quantitatively investigate aftershock effects on the hysteretic energy of structures. The equivalent velocity, V D,seq, is computed by analyzing the response time-history of an inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system with a varying vibration period subjected to 309 MSAS sequences. The present study selected two kinds of MSAS sequences, with one aftershock and two aftershocks, respectively. The aftershocks are scaled to maintain different relative intensities. The variation of the equivalent velocity, V D,seq, is studied for consideration of the ductility values, site conditions, relative intensities, number of aftershocks, hysteretic models, and damping ratios. The MSAS sequence with one aftershock exhibited a 10% to 30% hysteretic energy increase, whereas the MSAS sequence with two aftershocks presented a 20% to 40% hysteretic energy increase. Finally, a hysteretic energy prediction equation is proposed as a function of the vibration period, ductility value, and damping ratio to estimate hysteretic energy for mainshock-aftershock sequences.

  3. Modelling the 2013 North Aegean (Greece) seismic sequence: geometrical and frictional constraints, and aftershock probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karakostas, Vassilis; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Gospodinov, Dragomir

    2014-04-01

    The 2013 January 8 Mw 5.8 North Aegean earthquake sequence took place on one of the ENE-WSW trending parallel dextral strike slip fault branches in this area, in the continuation of 1968 large (M = 7.5) rupture. The source mechanism of the main event indicates predominantly strike slip faulting in agreement with what is expected from regional seismotectonics. It was the largest event to have occurred in the area since the establishment of the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network (HUSN), with an adequate number of stations in close distances and full azimuthal coverage, thus providing the chance of an exhaustive analysis of its aftershock sequence. The main shock was followed by a handful of aftershocks with M ≥ 4.0 and tens with M ≥ 3.0. Relocation was performed by using the recordings from HUSN and a proper crustal model for the area, along with time corrections in each station relative to the model used. Investigation of the spatial and temporal behaviour of seismicity revealed possible triggering of adjacent fault segments. Theoretical static stress changes from the main shock give a preliminary explanation for the aftershock distribution aside from the main rupture. The off-fault seismicity is perfectly explained if μ > 0.5 and B = 0.0, evidencing high fault friction. In an attempt to forecast occurrence probabilities of the strong events (Mw ≥ 5.0), estimations were performed following the Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS) model. The identified best-fitting MOF model was used to execute 1-d forecasts for such aftershocks and follow the probability evolution in time during the sequence. Forecasting was also implemented on the base of a temporal model of aftershock occurrence, different from the modified Omori formula (the ETAS model), which resulted in probability gain (though small) in strong aftershock forecasting for the beginning of the sequence.

  4. Towards a Logical Distinction Between Swarms and Aftershock Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gardine, M.; Burris, L.; McNutt, S.

    2007-12-01

    The distinction between swarms and aftershock sequences has, up to this point, been fairly arbitrary and non- uniform. Typically 0.5 to 1 order of magnitude difference between the mainshock and largest aftershock has been a traditional choice, but there are many exceptions. Seismologists have generally assumed that the mainshock carries most of the energy, but this is only true if it is sufficiently large compared to the size and numbers of aftershocks. Here we present a systematic division based on energy of the aftershock sequence compared to the energy of the largest event of the sequence. It is possible to calculate the amount of aftershock energy assumed to be in the sequence using the b-value of the frequency-magnitude relation with a fixed choice of magnitude separation (M-mainshock minus M-largest aftershock). Assuming that the energy of an aftershock sequence is less than the energy of the mainshock, the b-value at which the aftershock energy exceeds that of the mainshock energy determines the boundary between aftershock sequences and swarms. The amount of energy for various choices of b-value is also calculated using different values of magnitude separation. When the minimum b-value at which the sequence energy exceeds that of the largest event/mainshock is plotted against the magnitude separation, a linear trend emerges. Values plotting above this line represent swarms and values plotting below it represent aftershock sequences. This scheme has the advantage that it represents a physical quantity - energy - rather than only statistical features of earthquake distributions. As such it may be useful to help distinguish swarms from mainshock/aftershock sequences and to better determine the underlying causes of earthquake swarms.

  5. Statistical Features of the 2010 Beni-Ilmane, Algeria, Aftershock Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamdache, M.; Peláez, J. A.; Gospodinov, D.; Henares, J.

    2018-03-01

    The aftershock sequence of the 2010 Beni-Ilmane ( M W 5.5) earthquake is studied in depth to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of seismicity parameters of the relationships modeling the sequence. The b value of the frequency-magnitude distribution is examined rigorously. A threshold magnitude of completeness equal to 2.1, using the maximum curvature procedure or the changing point algorithm, and a b value equal to 0.96 ± 0.03 have been obtained for the entire sequence. Two clusters have been identified and characterized by their faulting type, exhibiting b values equal to 0.99 ± 0.05 and 1.04 ± 0.05. Additionally, the temporal decay of the aftershock sequence was examined using a stochastic point process. The analysis was done through the restricted epidemic-type aftershock sequence (RETAS) stochastic model, which allows the possibility to recognize the prevailing clustering pattern of the relaxation process in the examined area. The analysis selected the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to offer the most appropriate description of the temporal distribution, which presumes that all events in the sequence can cause secondary aftershocks. Finally, the fractal dimensions are estimated using the integral correlation. The obtained D 2 values are 2.15 ± 0.01, 2.23 ± 0.01 and 2.17 ± 0.02 for the entire sequence, and for the first and second cluster, respectively. An analysis of the temporal evolution of the fractal dimensions D -2, D 0, D 2 and the spectral slope has been also performed to derive and characterize the different clusters included in the sequence.

  6. The Aftershock Risk Index - quantification of aftershock impacts during ongoing strong-seismic sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2016-04-01

    The occurrence and impact of strong earthquakes often triggers the long-lasting impact of a seismic sequence. Strong earthquakes are generally followed by many aftershocks or even strong subsequently triggered ruptures. The Nepal 2015 earthquake sequence is one of the most recent examples where aftershocks significantly contributed to human and economic losses. In addition, rumours about upcoming mega-earthquakes, false predictions and on-going cycles of aftershocks induced a psychological burden on the society, which caused panic, additional casualties and prevented people from returning to normal life. This study shows the current phase of development of an operationalised aftershock intensity index, which will contribute to the mitigation of aftershock hazard. Hereby, various methods of earthquake forecasting and seismic risk assessments are utilised and an integration of the inherent aftershock intensity is performed. A spatio-temporal analysis of past earthquake clustering provides first-hand data about the nature of aftershock occurrence. Epidemic methods can additionally provide time-dependent variation indices of the cascading effects of aftershock generation. The aftershock hazard is often combined with the potential for significant losses through the vulnerability of structural systems and population. A historical database of aftershock socioeconomic effects from CATDAT has been used in order to calibrate the index based on observed impacts of historical events and their aftershocks. In addition, analytical analysis of cyclic behaviour and fragility functions of various building typologies are explored. The integration of many different probabilistic computation methods will provide a combined index parameter which can then be transformed into an easy-to-read spatio-temporal intensity index. The index provides daily updated information about the probability of the inherent seismic risk of aftershocks by providing a scalable scheme fordifferent aftershock

  7. Effects of Aftershock Declustering in Risk Modeling: Case Study of a Subduction Sequence in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kane, D. L.; Nyst, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake hazard and risk models often assume that earthquake rates can be represented by a stationary Poisson process, and that aftershocks observed in historical seismicity catalogs represent a deviation from stationarity that must be corrected before earthquake rates are estimated. Algorithms for classifying individual earthquakes as independent mainshocks or as aftershocks vary widely, and analysis of a single catalog can produce considerably different earthquake rates depending on the declustering method implemented. As these rates are propagated through hazard and risk models, the modeled results will vary due to the assumptions implied by these choices. In particular, the removal of large aftershocks following a mainshock may lead to an underestimation of the rate of damaging earthquakes and potential damage due to a large aftershock may be excluded from the model. We present a case study based on the 1907 - 1911 sequence of nine 6.9 <= Mw <= 7.9 earthquakes along the Cocos - North American plate subduction boundary in Mexico in order to illustrate the variability in risk under various declustering approaches. Previous studies have suggested that subduction zone earthquakes in Mexico tend to occur in clusters, and this particular sequence includes events that would be labeled as aftershocks in some declustering approaches yet are large enough to produce significant damage. We model the ground motion for each event, determine damage ratios using modern exposure data, and then compare the variability in the modeled damage from using the full catalog or one of several declustered catalogs containing only "independent" events. We also consider the effects of progressive damage caused by each subsequent event and how this might increase or decrease the total losses expected from this sequence.

  8. Forecasting the (un)productivity of the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa aftershock sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

    2017-01-01

    The 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa mainshock produced fewer aftershocks than expected for a California earthquake of its magnitude. In the first 4.5 days, only 59 M≥1.8 aftershocks occurred, the largest of which was an M 3.9 that happened a little over two days after the mainshock. We investigate the aftershock productivity of the South Napa sequence and compare it with other M≥5.5 California strike‐slip mainshock–aftershock sequences. While the productivity of the South Napa sequence is among the lowest, northern California mainshocks generally have fewer aftershocks than mainshocks further south, although the productivities vary widely in both regions. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988) fit to Napa seismicity from 1980 to 23 August 2014 fits the sequence well and suggests that low‐productivity sequences are typical of this area. Utilizing regional variations in productivity could improve operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) by improving the model used immediately after the mainshock. We show this by comparing the daily rate of M≥2 aftershocks to forecasts made with the generic California model (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989; hereafter, RJ89), RJ89 models with productivity updated daily, a generic California ETAS model, an ETAS model based on premainshock seismicity, and ETAS models updated daily following the mainshock. RJ89 models for which only the productivity is updated provide better forecasts than the generic RJ89 California model, and the Napa‐specific ETAS models forecast the aftershock rates more accurately than either generic model. Therefore, forecasts that use localized initial parameters and that rapidly update the productivity may be better for OEF than using a generic model and/or updating all parameters.

  9. Modeling Explosion Induced Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kroll, K.; Ford, S. R.; Pitarka, A.; Walter, W. R.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.

    2017-12-01

    Many traditional earthquake-explosion discrimination tools are based on properties of the seismic waveform or their spectral components. Common discrimination methods include estimates of body wave amplitude ratios, surface wave magnitude scaling, moment tensor characteristics, and depth. Such methods are limited by station coverage and noise. Ford and Walter (2010) proposed an alternate discrimination method based on using properties of aftershock sequences as a means of earthquakeexplosion differentiation. Previous studies have shown that explosion sources produce fewer aftershocks that are generally smaller in magnitude compared to aftershocks of similarly sized earthquake sources (Jarpe et al., 1994, Ford and Walter, 2010). It has also been suggested that the explosion-induced aftershocks have smaller Gutenberg- Richter b-values (Ryall and Savage, 1969) and that their rates decay faster than a typical Omori-like sequence (Gross, 1996). To discern whether these observations are generally true of explosions or are related to specific site conditions (e.g. explosion proximity to active faults, tectonic setting, crustal stress magnitudes) would require a thorough global analysis. Such a study, however, is hindered both by lack of evenly distributed explosion-sources and the availability of global seismicity data. Here, we employ two methods to test the efficacy of explosions at triggering aftershocks under a variety of physical conditions. First, we use the earthquake rate equations from Dieterich (1994) to compute the rate of aftershocks related to an explosion source assuming a simple spring-slider model. We compare seismicity rates computed with these analytical solutions to those produced by the 3D, multi-cycle earthquake simulator, RSQSim. We explore the relationship between geological conditions and the characteristics of the resulting explosion-induced aftershock sequence. We also test hypothesis that aftershock generation is dependent upon the frequency

  10. Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-04-01

    Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate-term aftershock activity as soon as possible is important. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with the maximum likelihood estimate effectively reproduces general aftershock activity including secondary or higher-order aftershocks and can be employed for the forecasting. However, because we cannot always expect the accurate parameter estimation from incomplete early aftershock data where many events are missing, such forecasting using only a single estimated parameter set (plug-in forecasting) can frequently perform poorly. Therefore, we here propose Bayesian forecasting that combines the forecasts by the ETAS model with various probable parameter sets given the data. By conducting forecasting tests of 1 month period aftershocks based on the first 1 day data after the main shock as an example of the early intermediate-term forecasting, we show that the Bayesian forecasting performs better than the plug-in forecasting on average in terms of the log-likelihood score. Furthermore, to improve forecasting of large aftershocks, we apply a nonparametric (NP) model using magnitude data during the learning period and compare its forecasting performance with that of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) formula. We show that the NP forecast performs better than the G-R formula in some cases but worse in other cases. Therefore, robust forecasting can be obtained by employing an ensemble forecast that combines the two complementary forecasts. Our proposed method is useful for a stable unbiased intermediate-term assessment of aftershock probabilities.

  11. Characterization of Aftershock Sequences from Large Strike-Slip Earthquakes Along Geometrically Complex Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sexton, E.; Thomas, A.; Delbridge, B. G.

    2017-12-01

    Large earthquakes often exhibit complex slip distributions and occur along non-planar fault geometries, resulting in variable stress changes throughout the region of the fault hosting aftershocks. To better discern the role of geometric discontinuities on aftershock sequences, we compare areas of enhanced and reduced Coulomb failure stress and mean stress for systematic differences in the time dependence and productivity of these aftershock sequences. In strike-slip faults, releasing structures, including stepovers and bends, experience an increase in both Coulomb failure stress and mean stress during an earthquake, promoting fluid diffusion into the region and further failure. Conversely, Coulomb failure stress and mean stress decrease in restraining bends and stepovers in strike-slip faults, and fluids diffuse away from these areas, discouraging failure. We examine spatial differences in seismicity patterns along structurally complex strike-slip faults which have hosted large earthquakes, such as the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, the 2010 Mw 7.2 El-Mayor Cucapah, the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa, and the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto events. We characterize the behavior of these aftershock sequences with the Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence Model (ETAS). In this statistical model, the total occurrence rate of aftershocks induced by an earthquake is λ(t) = λ_0 + \\sum_{i:t_i

  12. Model-free aftershock forecasts constructed from similar sequences in the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Elst, N.; Page, M. T.

    2017-12-01

    The basic premise behind aftershock forecasting is that sequences in the future will be similar to those in the past. Forecast models typically use empirically tuned parametric distributions to approximate past sequences, and project those distributions into the future to make a forecast. While parametric models do a good job of describing average outcomes, they are not explicitly designed to capture the full range of variability between sequences, and can suffer from over-tuning of the parameters. In particular, parametric forecasts may produce a high rate of "surprises" - sequences that land outside the forecast range. Here we present a non-parametric forecast method that cuts out the parametric "middleman" between training data and forecast. The method is based on finding past sequences that are similar to the target sequence, and evaluating their outcomes. We quantify similarity as the Poisson probability that the observed event count in a past sequence reflects the same underlying intensity as the observed event count in the target sequence. Event counts are defined in terms of differential magnitude relative to the mainshock. The forecast is then constructed from the distribution of past sequences outcomes, weighted by their similarity. We compare the similarity forecast with the Reasenberg and Jones (RJ95) method, for a set of 2807 global aftershock sequences of M≥6 mainshocks. We implement a sequence-specific RJ95 forecast using a global average prior and Bayesian updating, but do not propagate epistemic uncertainty. The RJ95 forecast is somewhat more precise than the similarity forecast: 90% of observed sequences fall within a factor of two of the median RJ95 forecast value, whereas the fraction is 85% for the similarity forecast. However, the surprise rate is much higher for the RJ95 forecast; 10% of observed sequences fall in the upper 2.5% of the (Poissonian) forecast range. The surprise rate is less than 3% for the similarity forecast. The similarity

  13. Implications of Secondary Aftershocks for Failure Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gross, S. J.

    2001-12-01

    When a seismic sequence with more than one mainshock or an unusually large aftershock occurs, there is a compound aftershock sequence. The secondary aftershocks need not have exactly the same decay as the primary sequence, with the differences having implications for the failure process. When the stress step from the secondary mainshock is positive but not large enough to cause immediate failure of all the remaining primary aftershocks, failure processes which involve accelerating slip will produce secondary aftershocks that decay more rapidly than primary aftershocks. This is because the primary aftershocks are an accelerated version of the background seismicity, and secondary aftershocks are an accelerated version of the primary aftershocks. Real stress perturbations may be negative, and heterogeneities in mainshock stress fields mean that the real world situation is quite complicated. I will first describe and verify my picture of secondary aftershock decay with reference to a simple numerical model of slipping faults which obeys rate and state dependent friction and lacks stress heterogeneity. With such a model, it is possible to generate secondary aftershock sequences with perturbed decay patterns, quantify those patterns, and develop an analysis technique capable of correcting for the effect in real data. The secondary aftershocks are defined in terms of frequency linearized time s(T), which is equal to the number of primary aftershocks expected by a time T, $ s ≡ ∫ t=0T n(t) dt, where the start time t=0 is the time of the primary aftershock, and the primary aftershock decay function n(t) is extrapolated forward to the times of the secondary aftershocks. In the absence of secondary sequences the function s(T)$ re-scales the time so that approximately one event occurs per new time unit; the aftershock sequence is gone. If this rescaling is applied in the presence of a secondary sequence, the secondary sequence is shaped like a primary aftershock sequence

  14. Testing the Predictive Power of Coulomb Stress on Aftershock Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woessner, J.; Lombardi, A.; Werner, M. J.; Marzocchi, W.

    2009-12-01

    Empirical and statistical models of clustered seismicity are usually strongly stochastic and perceived to be uninformative in their forecasts, since only marginal distributions are used, such as the Omori-Utsu and Gutenberg-Richter laws. In contrast, so-called physics-based aftershock models, based on seismic rate changes calculated from Coulomb stress changes and rate-and-state friction, make more specific predictions: anisotropic stress shadows and multiplicative rate changes. We test the predictive power of models based on Coulomb stress changes against statistical models, including the popular Short Term Earthquake Probabilities and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences models: We score and compare retrospective forecasts on the aftershock sequences of the 1992 Landers, USA, the 1997 Colfiorito, Italy, and the 2008 Selfoss, Iceland, earthquakes. To quantify predictability, we use likelihood-based metrics that test the consistency of the forecasts with the data, including modified and existing tests used in prospective forecast experiments within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Our results indicate that a statistical model performs best. Moreover, two Coulomb model classes seem unable to compete: Models based on deterministic Coulomb stress changes calculated from a given fault-slip model, and those based on fixed receiver faults. One model of Coulomb stress changes does perform well and sometimes outperforms the statistical models, but its predictive information is diluted, because of uncertainties included in the fault-slip model. Our results suggest that models based on Coulomb stress changes need to incorporate stochastic features that represent model and data uncertainty.

  15. Computational Software for Fitting Seismic Data to Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, A.

    2014-12-01

    Modern earthquake catalogs are often analyzed using spatial-temporal point process models such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). My work introduces software to implement two of ETAS models described in Ogata (1998). To find the Maximum-Likelihood Estimates (MLEs), my software provides estimates of the homogeneous background rate parameter and the temporal and spatial parameters that govern triggering effects by applying the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm introduced in Veen and Schoenberg (2008). Despite other computer programs exist for similar data modeling purpose, using EM-algorithm has the benefits of stability and robustness (Veen and Schoenberg, 2008). Spatial shapes that are very long and narrow cause difficulties in optimization convergence and problems with flat or multi-modal log-likelihood functions encounter similar issues. My program uses a robust method to preset a parameter to overcome the non-convergence computational issue. In addition to model fitting, the software is equipped with useful tools for examining modeling fitting results, for example, visualization of estimated conditional intensity, and estimation of expected number of triggered aftershocks. A simulation generator is also given with flexible spatial shapes that may be defined by the user. This open-source software has a very simple user interface. The user may execute it on a local computer, and the program also has potential to be hosted online. Java language is used for the software's core computing part and an optional interface to the statistical package R is provided.

  16. A catalog of aftershock sequences in Greece (1971 1997): Their spatial and temporal characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drakatos, George; Latoussakis, John

    A complete catalog of aftershock sequences is provided for main earthquakes with ML 5.0, which occurred in the area of Greece and surrounding regions the last twenty-seven years. The Monthly Bulletins of the Institute of Geodynamics (National Observatory of Athens) have been used as data source. In order to get a homogeneous catalog, several selection criteria have been applied and hence a catalog of 44 aftershock sequences is compiled. The relations between the duration of the sequence, the number of aftershocks, the magnitude of the largest aftershock and its delay time from the main shock as well as the subsurface rupture length versus the magnitude of the main shock are calculated. The results show that linearity exists between the subsurface rupture length and the magnitude of the main shock independent of the slip type, as well as between the magnitude of the main shock (M) and its largest aftershock (Ma). The mean difference M-Ma is almost one unit. In the 40% of the analyzed sequences, the largest aftershock occurred within one day after the main shock.The fact that the aftershock sequences show the same behavior for earthquakes that occur in the same region supports the theory that the spatial and temporal characteristics are strongly related to the stress distribution of the fault area.

  17. Long-lived aftershock sequences around Beijing, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jian; Main, Ian G.; Musson, Roger M. W.

    2017-04-01

    SUMMARY Most aftershock sequences are relatively transient, decaying over months or years to background levels. However, in some intra-plate areas, persistent clusters of events can occur over much greater time scales, for example the ongoing sequence in the New Madrid zone of the eastern US. Here we examine the evidence for such long-lived aftershock sequences around Beijing, China. First we introduce a metric known as the 'seismic density index' that quantifies the degree of clustering of seismic energy release. For a given map location, this multi-dimensional index depends on the number of events, their magnitudes, and the distances to the locations of the surrounding population of earthquakes. We apply the index to modern instrumental catalogue data between 1970 and 2014, and identify six clear candidate zones for long-lived aftershocks. We then compare these locations to earthquake epicenter and seismic intensity data for the six largest historical earthquakes. Each candidate zone contains one of the six historical events, and the location of peak intensity is within 5km or so of the reported epicenter in five of these cases. In one case - the great Ms 8 earthquake of 1679 - the peak is closer to the area of strongest shaking (Intensity XI or more) than the reported epicenter. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that the modern clusters are long-lived aftershocks. However, there is no systematic reduction in the seismic event rate in these candidate zones with time since 1970, as one might expect from a transient decay by the Omori law. This could be due to the decay rate being too slow to be detected, or that the index is instead picking out the location of persistent weaknesses in the lithosphere. In either case the results imply that areas of high seismic density index could be used in principle to indicate the location of unrecorded historical of palaeo-seismic events in areas of intra-plate continental seismicity.

  18. Internal tectonic structure of the Central American Wadati-Benioff zone based on analysis of aftershock sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Å PičáK, Aleš; Hanuš, VáClav; VaněK, JiřÃ.­; BěHounková, Marie

    2007-09-01

    Relocated Engdahl et al. (1998) global seismological data for 10 aftershock sequences were used to analyze the internal tectonic structure of the Central American subduction zone; the main shocks of several of these were the most destructive and often referenced earthquakes in the region (e.g., the 1970 Chiapas, 1983 Osa, 1992 Nicaragua, 1999 Quepos, 2001 El Salvador earthquakes). The spatial analysis of aftershock foci distribution was performed in a rotated Cartesian coordinate system (x, y, z) related to the Wadati-Benioff zone, and not in a standard coordinate system (ϕ, λ, h are latitude, longitude, focal depth, respectively). Available fault plane solutions were also transformed into the plane approximating the Wadati-Benioff zone. The spatial distribution of earthquakes in each aftershock sequence was modeled as either a plane fit using a least squares approximation or a volume fit with a minimum thickness rectangular box. The analysis points to a quasi-planar distribution of earthquake foci in all aftershock sequences, manifesting the appurtenance of aftershocks to fracture zones. Geometrical parameters of fracture zones (strike, dip, and dimensions) hosting individual sequences were calculated and compared with the seafloor morphology of the Cocos Plate. The smooth character of the seafloor correlates with the aftershock fracture zones oriented parallel to the trench and commonly subparallel to the subducting slab, whereas subduction of the Cocos Ridge and seamounts around the Quepos Plateau coincides with steeply dipping fracture zones. Transformed focal mechanisms are almost exclusively (>90%) of normal character.

  19. Internal tectonic structure of the Central American Wadati-Benioff zone based on analysis of aftershock sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Špičák, Aleš; Hanuš, Václav; Vaněk, Jiří; Běhounková, Marie

    2007-09-01

    Relocated Engdahl et al. (1998) global seismological data for 10 aftershock sequences were used to analyze the internal tectonic structure of the Central American subduction zone; the main shocks of several of these were the most destructive and often referenced earthquakes in the region (e.g., the 1970 Chiapas, 1983 Osa, 1992 Nicaragua, 1999 Quepos, 2001 El Salvador earthquakes). The spatial analysis of aftershock foci distribution was performed in a rotated Cartesian coordinate system (x, y, z) related to the Wadati-Benioff zone, and not in a standard coordinate system ($\\varphi$, λ, h are latitude, longitude, focal depth, respectively). Available fault plane solutions were also transformed into the plane approximating the Wadati-Benioff zone. The spatial distribution of earthquakes in each aftershock sequence was modeled as either a plane fit using a least squares approximation or a volume fit with a minimum thickness rectangular box. The analysis points to a quasi-planar distribution of earthquake foci in all aftershock sequences, manifesting the appurtenance of aftershocks to fracture zones. Geometrical parameters of fracture zones (strike, dip, and dimensions) hosting individual sequences were calculated and compared with the seafloor morphology of the Cocos Plate. The smooth character of the seafloor correlates with the aftershock fracture zones oriented parallel to the trench and commonly subparallel to the subducting slab, whereas subduction of the Cocos Ridge and seamounts around the Quepos Plateau coincides with steeply dipping fracture zones. Transformed focal mechanisms are almost exclusively (>90%) of normal character.

  20. Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment.

    PubMed

    Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian

    2009-11-05

    One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere.

  1. Automatic Classification of Extensive Aftershock Sequences Using Empirical Matched Field Processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibbons, Steven J.; Harris, David B.; Kværna, Tormod; Dodge, Douglas A.

    2013-04-01

    The aftershock sequences that follow large earthquakes create considerable problems for data centers attempting to produce comprehensive event bulletins in near real-time. The greatly increased number of events which require processing can overwhelm analyst resources and reduce the capacity for analyzing events of monitoring interest. This exacerbates a potentially reduced detection capability at key stations, due the noise generated by the sequence, and a deterioration in the quality of the fully automatic preliminary event bulletins caused by the difficulty in associating the vast numbers of closely spaced arrivals over the network. Considerable success has been enjoyed by waveform correlation methods for the automatic identification of groups of events belonging to the same geographical source region, facilitating the more time-efficient analysis of event ensembles as opposed to individual events. There are, however, formidable challenges associated with the automation of correlation procedures. The signal generated by a very large earthquake seldom correlates well enough with the signals generated by far smaller aftershocks for a correlation detector to produce statistically significant triggers at the correct times. Correlation between events within clusters of aftershocks is significantly better, although the issues of when and how to initiate new pattern detectors are still being investigated. Empirical Matched Field Processing (EMFP) is a highly promising method for detecting event waveforms suitable as templates for correlation detectors. EMFP is a quasi-frequency-domain technique that calibrates the spatial structure of a wavefront crossing a seismic array in a collection of narrow frequency bands. The amplitude and phase weights that result are applied in a frequency-domain beamforming operation that compensates for scattering and refraction effects not properly modeled by plane-wave beams. It has been demonstrated to outperform waveform correlation as a

  2. Comparison of aftershock sequences between 1975 Haicheng earthquake and 1976 Tangshan earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, B.

    2017-12-01

    The 1975 ML 7.3 Haicheng earthquake and the 1976 ML 7.8 Tangshan earthquake occurred in the same tectonic unit. There are significant differences in spatial-temporal distribution, number of aftershocks and time duration for the aftershock sequence followed by these two main shocks. As we all know, aftershocks could be triggered by the regional seismicity change derived from the main shock, which was caused by the Coulomb stress perturbation. Based on the rate- and state- dependent friction law, we quantitative estimated the possible aftershock time duration with a combination of seismicity data, and compared the results from different approaches. The results indicate that, aftershock time durations from the Tangshan main shock is several times of that form the Haicheng main shock. This can be explained by the significant relationship between aftershock time duration and earthquake nucleation history, normal stressand shear stress loading rateon the fault. In fact the obvious difference of earthquake nucleation history from these two main shocks is the foreshocks. 1975 Haicheng earthquake has clear and long foreshocks, while 1976 Tangshan earthquake did not have clear foreshocks. In that case, abundant foreshocks may mean a long and active nucleation process that may have changed (weakened) the rocks in the source regions, so they should have a shorter aftershock sequences for the reason that stress in weak rocks decay faster.

  3. The Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake aftershock sequence, event catalog and locations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meltzer, A.; Benz, H.; Brown, L.; Russo, R. M.; Beck, S. L.; Roecker, S. W.

    2011-12-01

    The aftershock sequence of the Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake off the coast of Chile in February 2010 is one of the most well-recorded aftershock sequences from a great megathrust earthquake. Immediately following the Maule earthquake, teams of geophysicists from Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain and the United States coordinated resources to capture aftershocks and other seismic signals associated with this significant earthquake. In total, 91 broadband, 48 short period, and 25 accelerometers stations were deployed above the rupture zone of the main shock from 33-38.5°S and from the coast to the Andean range front. In order to integrate these data into a unified catalog, the USGS National Earthquake Information Center develop procedures to use their real-time seismic monitoring system (Bulletin Hydra) to detect, associate, location and compute earthquake source parameters from these stations. As a first step in the process, the USGS has built a seismic catalog of all M3.5 or larger earthquakes for the time period of the main aftershock deployment from March 2010-October 2010. The catalog includes earthquake locations, magnitudes (Ml, Mb, Mb_BB, Ms, Ms_BB, Ms_VX, Mc), associated phase readings and regional moment tensor solutions for most of the M4 or larger events. Also included in the catalog are teleseismic phases and amplitude measures and body-wave MT and CMT solutions for the larger events, typically M5.5 and larger. Tuning of automated detection and association parameters should allow a complete catalog of events to approximately M2.5 or larger for that dataset of more than 164 stations. We characterize the aftershock sequence in terms of magnitude, frequency, and location over time. Using the catalog locations and travel times as a starting point we use double difference techniques to investigate relative locations and earthquake clustering. In addition, phase data from candidate ground truth events and modeling of surface waves can be used to calibrate the

  4. Using waveform cross correlation for automatic recovery of aftershock sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bobrov, Dmitry; Kitov, Ivan; Rozhkov, Mikhail

    2017-04-01

    Aftershock sequences of the largest earthquakes are difficult to recover. There can be several hundred mid-sized aftershocks per hour within a few hundred km from each other recorded by the same stations. Moreover, these events generate thousands of reflected/refracted phases having azimuth and slowness close to those from the P-waves. Therefore, aftershock sequences with thousands of events represent a major challenge for automatic and interactive processing at the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Organization (CTBTO). Standard methods of detection and phase association do not use all information contained in signals. As a result, wrong association of the first and later phases, both regular and site specific, produces enormous number of wrong event hypotheses and destroys valid event hypotheses in automatic IDC processing. In turn, the IDC analysts have to reject false and recreate valid hypotheses wasting precious human resources. At the current level of the IDC catalogue completeness, the method of waveform cross correlation (WCC) can resolve most of detection and association problems fully utilizing the similarity of waveforms generated by aftershocks. Array seismic stations of the International monitoring system (IMS) can enhance the performance of the WCC method: reduce station-specific detection thresholds, allow accurate estimate of signal attributes, including relative magnitude, and effectively suppress irrelevant arrivals. We have developed and tested a prototype of an aftershock tool matching all IDC processing requirements and merged it with the current IDC pipeline. This tool includes creation of master events consisting of real or synthetic waveform templates at ten and more IMS stations; cross correlation (CC) of real-time waveforms with these templates, association of arrivals detected at CC-traces in event hypotheses; building events matching the IDC quality criteria; and resolution of conflicts between events

  5. Strategies for automatic processing of large aftershock sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kvaerna, T.; Gibbons, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Aftershock sequences following major earthquakes present great challenges to seismic bulletin generation. The analyst resources needed to locate events increase with increased event numbers as the quality of underlying, fully automatic, event lists deteriorates. While current pipelines, designed a generation ago, are usually limited to single passes over the raw data, modern systems also allow multiple passes. Processing the raw data from each station currently generates parametric data streams that are later subject to phase-association algorithms which form event hypotheses. We consider a major earthquake scenario and propose to define a region of likely aftershock activity in which we will detect and accurately locate events using a separate, specially targeted, semi-automatic process. This effort may use either pattern detectors or more general algorithms that cover wider source regions without requiring waveform similarity. An iterative procedure to generate automatic bulletins would incorporate all the aftershock event hypotheses generated by the auxiliary process, and filter all phases from these events from the original detection lists prior to a new iteration of the global phase-association algorithm.

  6. Abundant aftershock sequence of the 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush intermediate-depth earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Chenyu; Peng, Zhigang; Yao, Dongdong; Guo, Hao; Zhan, Zhongwen; Zhang, Haijiang

    2018-05-01

    The 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush earthquake occurred at a depth of 213 km beneath the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan. While many early aftershocks were missing from the global earthquake catalogues, this sequence was recorded continuously by eight broad-band stations within 500 km. Here we use a waveform matching technique to systematically detect earthquakes around the main shock. More than 3000 events are detected within 35 d after the main shock, as compared with 42 listed in the Advanced National Seismic System catalogue (or 196 in the International Seismological Centre catalogue). The aftershock sequence generally follows the Omori's law with a decay constant p = 0.92. We also apply the recently developed double-pair double-difference technique to relocate all detected aftershocks. Most of them are located to the west of the hypocentre of the main shock, consistent with the westward propagation of the main-shock rupture. The aftershocks outline a nearly vertical southward dipping plane, which matches well with one of the nodal planes of the main shock. We conclude that the aftershock sequence of this intermediate-depth earthquake shares many similarities with those for shallow earthquakes and infer that there are some common mechanisms responsible for shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes.

  7. Seismic Parameters of Mining-Induced Aftershock Sequences for Re-entry Protocol Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vallejos, Javier A.; Estay, Rodrigo A.

    2018-03-01

    A common characteristic of deep mines in hard rock is induced seismicity. This results from stress changes and rock failure around mining excavations. Following large seismic events, there is an increase in the levels of seismicity, which gradually decay with time. Restricting access to areas of a mine for enough time to allow this decay of seismic events is the main approach in re-entry strategies. The statistical properties of aftershock sequences can be studied with three scaling relations: (1) Gutenberg-Richter frequency magnitude, (2) the modified Omori's law (MOL) for the temporal decay, and (3) Båth's law for the magnitude of the largest aftershock. In this paper, these three scaling relations, in addition to the stochastic Reasenberg-Jones model are applied to study the characteristic parameters of 11 large magnitude mining-induced aftershock sequences in four mines in Ontario, Canada. To provide guidelines for re-entry protocol development, the dependence of the scaling relation parameters on the magnitude of the main event are studied. Some relations between the parameters and the magnitude of the main event are found. Using these relationships and the scaling relations, a space-time-magnitude re-entry protocol is developed. These findings provide a first approximation to concise and well-justified guidelines for re-entry protocol development applicable to the range of mining conditions found in Ontario, Canada.

  8. Operational Earthquake Forecasting of Aftershocks for New England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebel, J.; Fadugba, O. I.

    2015-12-01

    Although the forecasting of mainshocks is not possible, recent research demonstrates that probabilistic forecasts of expected aftershock activity following moderate and strong earthquakes is possible. Previous work has shown that aftershock sequences in intraplate regions behave similarly to those in California, and thus the operational aftershocks forecasting methods that are currently employed in California can be adopted for use in areas of the eastern U.S. such as New England. In our application, immediately after a felt earthquake in New England, a forecast of expected aftershock activity for the next 7 days will be generated based on a generic aftershock activity model. Approximately 24 hours after the mainshock, the parameters of the aftershock model will be updated using the observed aftershock activity observed to that point in time, and a new forecast of expected aftershock activity for the next 7 days will be issued. The forecast will estimate the average number of weak, felt aftershocks and the average expected number of aftershocks based on the aftershock statistics of past New England earthquakes. The forecast also will estimate the probability that an earthquake that is stronger than the mainshock will take place during the next 7 days. The aftershock forecast will specify the expected aftershocks locations as well as the areas over which aftershocks of different magnitudes could be felt. The system will use web pages, email and text messages to distribute the aftershock forecasts. For protracted aftershock sequences, new forecasts will be issued on a regular basis, such as weekly. Initially, the distribution system of the aftershock forecasts will be limited, but later it will be expanded as experience with and confidence in the system grows.

  9. Mainshock-aftershock clustering in volcanic regions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Giron, Ricardo Garza; Brodsky, Emily E.; Prejean, Stephanie

    2018-01-01

    swarms and mainshock-aftershock sequences. The former is commonly thought to dominate in volcanic and geothermal regions, but aftershock production, including within swarms, is not well studied in volcanic regions. Here we compare mainshock-aftershock clustering in active volcanic regions in Japan to nearby nonvolcanic regions. We find that aftershock production is similar in both areas by two separate metrics: (1) Both volcanic and nonvolcanic regions have similar proportions of areas that cluster into mainshock-aftershock sequences. (2) Volcanic areas with mainshock-aftershock sequences have aftershock productivity at least as high as nonvolcanic regions. We also find that volcano-tectonic events that are precursors to an eruption are more common at volcanoes without mainshock-aftershock clusters than at volcanoes with well-defined mainshock-aftershock clusters. This last finding hints at a strategy to identify volcanic systems where cataloged earthquakes are good predictors of behavior.

  10. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Der Elst, Nicholas

    2017-01-01

    Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

  11. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Elst, Nicholas J.

    2017-11-01

    Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

  12. Mainshock-Aftershock Clustering in Volcanic Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garza-Giron, Ricardo; Brodsky, Emily E.; Prejean, Stephanie G.

    2018-02-01

    Earthquakes break their general Poissonean behavior through two types of seismic bursts: swarms and mainshock-aftershock sequences. The former is commonly thought to dominate in volcanic and geothermal regions, but aftershock production, including within swarms, is not well studied in volcanic regions. Here we compare mainshock-aftershock clustering in active volcanic regions in Japan to nearby nonvolcanic regions. We find that aftershock production is similar in both areas by two separate metrics: (1) Both volcanic and nonvolcanic regions have similar proportions of areas that cluster into mainshock-aftershock sequences. (2) Volcanic areas with mainshock-aftershock sequences have aftershock productivity at least as high as nonvolcanic regions. We also find that volcano-tectonic events that are precursors to an eruption are more common at volcanoes without mainshock-aftershock clusters than at volcanoes with well-defined mainshock-aftershock clusters. This last finding hints at a strategy to identify volcanic systems where cataloged earthquakes are good predictors of behavior.

  13. On the adaptive daily forecasting of seismic aftershock hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh; Asprone, Domenico; Lombardi, Anna Maria; Marzocchi, Warner; Prota, Andrea; Manfredi, Gaetano

    2013-04-01

    Post-earthquake ground motion hazard assessment is a fundamental initial step towards time-dependent seismic risk assessment for buildings in a post main-shock environment. Therefore, operative forecasting of seismic aftershock hazard forms a viable support basis for decision-making regarding search and rescue, inspection, repair, and re-occupation in a post main-shock environment. Arguably, an adaptive procedure for integrating the aftershock occurrence rate together with suitable ground motion prediction relations is key to Probabilistic Seismic Aftershock Hazard Assessment (PSAHA). In the short-term, the seismic hazard may vary significantly (Jordan et al., 2011), particularly after the occurrence of a high magnitude earthquake. Hence, PSAHA requires a reliable model that is able to track the time evolution of the earthquake occurrence rates together with suitable ground motion prediction relations. This work focuses on providing adaptive daily forecasts of the mean daily rate of exceeding various spectral acceleration values (the aftershock hazard). Two well-established earthquake occurrence models suitable for daily seismicity forecasts associated with the evolution of an aftershock sequence, namely, the modified Omori's aftershock model and the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) are adopted. The parameters of the modified Omori model are updated on a daily basis using Bayesian updating and based on the data provided by the ongoing aftershock sequence based on the methodology originally proposed by Jalayer et al. (2011). The Bayesian updating is used also to provide sequence-based parameter estimates for a given ground motion prediction model, i.e. the aftershock events in an ongoing sequence are exploited in order to update in an adaptive manner the parameters of an existing ground motion prediction model. As a numerical example, the mean daily rates of exceeding specific spectral acceleration values are estimated adaptively for the L'Aquila 2009

  14. An Improved Source-Scanning Algorithm for Locating Earthquake Clusters or Aftershock Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Y.; Kao, H.; Hsu, S.

    2010-12-01

    The Source-scanning Algorithm (SSA) was originally introduced in 2004 to locate non-volcanic tremors. Its application was later expanded to the identification of earthquake rupture planes and the near-real-time detection and monitoring of landslides and mud/debris flows. In this study, we further improve SSA for the purpose of locating earthquake clusters or aftershock sequences when only a limited number of waveform observations are available. The main improvements include the application of a ground motion analyzer to separate P and S waves, the automatic determination of resolution based on the grid size and time step of the scanning process, and a modified brightness function to utilize constraints from multiple phases. Specifically, the improved SSA (named as ISSA) addresses two major issues related to locating earthquake clusters/aftershocks. The first one is the massive amount of both time and labour to locate a large number of seismic events manually. And the second one is to efficiently and correctly identify the same phase across the entire recording array when multiple events occur closely in time and space. To test the robustness of ISSA, we generate synthetic waveforms consisting of 3 separated events such that individual P and S phases arrive at different stations in different order, thus making correct phase picking nearly impossible. Using these very complicated waveforms as the input, the ISSA scans all model space for possible combination of time and location for the existence of seismic sources. The scanning results successfully associate various phases from each event at all stations, and correctly recover the input. To further demonstrate the advantage of ISSA, we apply it to the waveform data collected by a temporary OBS array for the aftershock sequence of an offshore earthquake southwest of Taiwan. The overall signal-to-noise ratio is inadequate for locating small events; and the precise arrival times of P and S phases are difficult to

  15. Aftershock sequence of ML6.1 earthquake in Sakhalin: recovery with waveform cross correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitov, Ivan; Konovalov, Alexey; Stepnov, Andrey; Turuntaev, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    The Sakhalin Island is characterized by relatively high seismic activity. The largest measured earthquake of Mw=7.0 occurred in 1995 near the town of Neftegorsk. It was followed by a long-lasting aftershock sequence. Based on the results of our previous analysis of this aftershock sequence with the method of waveform cross correlation (WCC), we have recovered an aftershock sequence of the ML 6.1 earthquake occurred on August 14, 2016 at 11:15:13.1 (UTC). The epicentre of this earthquake estimated by near-regional data has geographic coordinates 50.351N i 142.395E, with the focal depth of 9 km. The aftershock catalogue compiled by the eqaler.ru resource includes 133 events within 20 days from the main shock. We used P- and S-wave signals from the main shock and a few largest aftershocks from the catalogue as waveform templates. Cross correlation of continuous waveforms with these templates was carried out at six closest seismic stations of the regional network, with four stations to northeast and two stations to southwest of the epicentre. For detection, we used standard STA/LTA method with thresholds depending on seismic phase and station. The accuracy of onset time estimation by the STA/LTA detector based on the obtained CC-traces is close to a few samples, with the sampling rate of 40 Hz at all stations. Arrival times of all detected signals were reduced to origin times using the observed travel times from the master-events to six stations. For a given master event, clusters of origin times are considered as event hypotheses in a local association procedure. When several master events find the same physical signal, we resolve conflict using the number of associated stations and then the RMS origin time residual. In total, more than 190 aftershocks were found with three and more associated stations and five and more associated phases. This is by 40% more than the number of aftershocks in the original catalogue. Their magnitudes vary between 1.5 and 4.5. We also

  16. Three ingredients for Improved global aftershock forecasts: Tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and inter-sequence variability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Page, Morgan T.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen; Michael, Andrew J.

    2016-01-01

    Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long‐term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Because of this heightened hazard, emergency managers and the public demand rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts following large global earthquakes have been released on an ad hoc basis with inconsistent methods, and in some cases aftershock parameters adapted from California. To remedy this, the USGS is currently developing an automated aftershock product based on the Reasenberg and Jones (1989) method that will generate more accurate forecasts. To better capture spatial variations in aftershock productivity and decay, we estimate regional aftershock parameters for sequences within the García et al. (2012) tectonic regions. We find that regional variations for mean aftershock productivity reach almost a factor of 10. We also develop a method to account for the time‐dependent magnitude of completeness following large events in the catalog. In addition to estimating average sequence parameters within regions, we develop an inverse method to estimate the intersequence parameter variability. This allows for a more complete quantification of the forecast uncertainties and Bayesian updating of the forecast as sequence‐specific information becomes available.

  17. Power-law rheology controls aftershock triggering and decay

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Xiaoming; Shcherbakov, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The occurrence of aftershocks is a signature of physical systems exhibiting relaxation phenomena. They are observed in various natural or experimental systems and usually obey several non-trivial empirical laws. Here we consider a cellular automaton realization of a nonlinear viscoelastic slider-block model in order to infer the physical mechanisms of triggering responsible for the occurrence of aftershocks. We show that nonlinear viscoelasticity plays a critical role in the occurrence of aftershocks. The model reproduces several empirical laws describing the statistics of aftershocks. In case of earthquakes, the proposed model suggests that the power-law rheology of the fault gauge, underlying lower crust, and upper mantle controls the decay rate of aftershocks. This is verified by analysing several prominent aftershock sequences for which the rheological properties of the underlying crust and upper mantle were established. PMID:27819355

  18. Relocation of the 2012 Ms 7.0 Lushan Earthquake Aftershock Sequences and Its Implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, L.; Wu, J.; Sun, Z.; Su, J.; Du, W.

    2013-12-01

    At 08:02 am on 20 April 2013 (Beijing time), an Ms 7.0 earthquake occurred in Lushan County, Sichuan Province. Lushan earthquake is another devastating earthquake occurred in Sichuan Province after 12 May 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. 193 people were killed, 25 people were missing and more than ten thousand people were injured in the earthquake. Direct economic losses were estimated to be more than 80 billion yuan (RMB). Lushan earthquake occurred in the southern part of the Longmenshan fault zone. The distance between the epicenters of Lushan earthquake and Wenchuan earthquake is about 87 km. In an effort to maximize observations of the aftershock sequence and study the seismotetonic model, we deployed 35 temporal seismic stations around the source area. The earthquake was followed by a productive aftershock sequence. By the end of 20 July more than 10,254 aftershocks were recorded by the temporal seismic network. The magnitude of the aftershock ranges from ML-0.5 to ML5.6. We first located the aftershocks using Hypo2000 (Kevin, 2000) and refined the location results with HYPODD (Waldhauser & Ellsworth, 2000). The 1-D velocity model used in relocation is modified from a deep seismic sounding profile near Lushan earthquake (Wang et al., 2007). The Vp/Vs ratio is set to 1.83 according to receiver function h-k study. A total of 8,129 events were relocated. The average location error in N-S, E-W and U-D direction is 0.30, 0.29 and 0.59 km, respectively. The relocation results show that the aftershocks spread approximately 35 km in length and 16 km in width. The dominant distribution of the focal depth ranges from 10 to 20 km. A few earthquakes occurred in the shallow crust. Focal depth sections crossing the source area show that the seismogenic fault dips to the northwest, manifested itself as a listric thrust fault. The dip angle of the seismogenic fault is approximately 63° in the shallow crust, about 41° near the source of the mainshock, and about 17° at the

  19. Aftershock Energy Distribution by Statistical Mechanics Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daminelli, R.; Marcellini, A.

    2015-12-01

    The aim of our work is to research the most probable distribution of the energy of aftershocks. We started by applying one of the fundamental principles of statistical mechanics that, in case of aftershock sequences, it could be expressed as: the greater the number of different ways in which the energy of aftershocks can be arranged among the energy cells in phase space the more probable the distribution. We assume that each cell in phase space has the same possibility to be occupied, and that more than one cell in the phase space can have the same energy. Seeing that seismic energy is proportional to products of different parameters, a number of different combinations of parameters can produce different energies (e.g., different combination of stress drop and fault area can release the same seismic energy). Let us assume that there are gi cells in the aftershock phase space characterised by the same energy released ɛi. Therefore we can assume that the Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics can be applied to aftershock sequences with the proviso that the judgment on the validity of this hypothesis is the agreement with the data. The aftershock energy distribution can therefore be written as follow: n(ɛ)=Ag(ɛ)exp(-βɛ)where n(ɛ) is the number of aftershocks with energy, ɛ, A and β are constants. Considering the above hypothesis, we can assume g(ɛ) is proportional to ɛ. We selected and analysed different aftershock sequences (data extracted from Earthquake Catalogs of SCEC, of INGV-CNT and other institutions) with a minimum magnitude retained ML=2 (in some cases ML=2.6) and a time window of 35 days. The results of our model are in agreement with the data, except in the very low energy band, where our model resulted in a moderate overestimation.

  20. The Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake of August 2011 and aftershock sequence: constraints on earthquake source parameters and fault geometry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Benz, H.M.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Bergman, Eric A.; Earle, Paul; Meltzer, Anne; Withers, Mitch; Chapman, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The Mw 5.8 earthquake of 23 August 2011 (17:51:04 UTC) (moment, M0 5.7×1017  N·m) occurred near Mineral, Virginia, within the central Virginia seismic zone and was felt by more people than any other earthquake in United States history. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received 148,638 felt reports from 31 states and 4 Canadian provinces. The USGS PAGER system estimates as many as 120,000 people were exposed to shaking intensity levels of IV and greater, with approximately 10,000 exposed to shaking as high as intensity VIII. Both regional and teleseismic moment tensor solutions characterize the earthquake as a northeast‐striking reverse fault that nucleated at a depth of approximately 7±2  km. The distribution of reported macroseismic intensities is roughly ten times the area of a similarly sized earthquake in the western United States (Horton and Williams, 2012). Near‐source and far‐field damage reports, which extend as far away as Washington, D.C., (135 km away) and Baltimore, Maryland, (200 km away) are consistent with an earthquake of this size and depth in the eastern United States (EUS). Within the first few days following the earthquake, several government and academic institutions installed 36 portable seismograph stations in the epicentral region, making this among the best‐recorded aftershock sequences in the EUS. Based on modeling of these data, we provide a detailed description of the source parameters of the mainshock and analysis of the subsequent aftershock sequence for defining the fault geometry, area of rupture, and observations of the aftershock sequence magnitude–frequency and temporal distribution. The observed slope of the magnitude–frequency curve or b‐value for the aftershock sequence is consistent with previous EUS studies (b=0.75), suggesting that most of the accumulated strain was released by the mainshock. The aftershocks define a rupture that extends between approximately 2–8 km in depth and 8–10 km along

  1. Aftershock seismicity of the 2010 Maule Mw=8.8 Chile, earthquake: Correlation between co-seismic slip models and aftershock distribution?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rietbrock, A.; Ryder, I.; Hayes, G.; Haberland, C.; Comte, D.; Roecker, S.

    2012-01-01

    The 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile (Mw=8.8) earthquake is one of the best instrumentally observed subduction zone megathrust events. Here we present locations, magnitudes and cumulative equivalent moment of the first -2 months of aftershocks, recorded on a temporary network deployed within 2 weeks of the occurrence of the mainshock. Using automatically-determined onset times and a back projection approach for event association, we are able to detect over 30,000 events in the time period analyzed. To further increase the location accuracy, we systematically searched for potential S-wave arrivals and events were located in a regional 2D velocity model. Additionally, we calculated regional moment tensors to gain insight into the deformation history of the aftershock sequence. We find that the aftershock seismicity is concentrated between 40 and 140 km distance from the trench over a depth range of 10 to 35 km. Focal mechanisms indicate a predominance of thrust faulting, with occasional normal faulting events. Increased activity is seen in the outer-rise region of the Nazca plate, predominantly in the northern part of the rupture area. Further down-dip, a second band of clustered seismicity, showing mainly thrust motion, is located at depths of 40–45 km. By comparing recent published mainshock source inversions with our aftershock distribution, we discriminate slip models based on the assumption that aftershocks occur in areas of rapid transition between high and low slip, surrounding high-slip regions of the mainshock.

  2. Spatio-temporal analysis of aftershock sequences in terms of Non Extensive Statistical Physics.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chochlaki, Kalliopi; Vallianatos, Filippos

    2017-04-01

    Earth's seismicity is considered as an extremely complicated process where long-range interactions and fracturing exist (Vallianatos et al., 2016). For this reason, in order to analyze it, we use an innovative methodological approach, introduced by Tsallis (Tsallis, 1988; 2009), named Non Extensive Statistical Physics. This approach introduce a generalization of the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics and it is based on the definition of Tsallis entropy Sq, which maximized leads the the so-called q-exponential function that expresses the probability distribution function that maximizes the Sq. In the present work, we utilize the concept of Non Extensive Statistical Physics in order to analyze the spatiotemporal properties of several aftershock series. Marekova (Marekova, 2014) suggested that the probability densities of the inter-event distances between successive aftershocks follow a beta distribution. Using the same data set we analyze the inter-event distance distribution of several aftershocks sequences in different geographic regions by calculating non extensive parameters that determine the behavior of the system and by fitting the q-exponential function, which expresses the degree of non-extentivity of the investigated system. Furthermore, the inter-event times distribution of the aftershocks as well as the frequency-magnitude distribution has been analyzed. The results supports the applicability of Non Extensive Statistical Physics ideas in aftershock sequences where a strong correlation exists along with memory effects. References C. Tsallis, Possible generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics, J. Stat. Phys. 52 (1988) 479-487. doi:10.1007/BF01016429 C. Tsallis, Introduction to nonextensive statistical mechanics: Approaching a complex world, 2009. doi:10.1007/978-0-387-85359-8. E. Marekova, Analysis of the spatial distribution between successive earthquakes in aftershocks series, Annals of Geophysics, 57, 5, doi:10.4401/ag-6556, 2014 F. Vallianatos, G

  3. AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCES AND CRUSTAL STRUCTURE IN THE REGION OF GREECE.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    the strain release characteristics and other properties of the aftershock and foreshock sequences (1) of all shocks of M 5.9 which have occurred in...relation between the water loading of two artificial lakes in the region of Greece and the earthquake activity in foreshocks or swarm of shocks triggered

  4. Computational Software to Fit Seismic Data Using Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Models and Modeling Performance Comparisons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, A.

    2016-12-01

    Modern earthquake catalogs are often analyzed using spatial-temporal point process models such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). My work implements three of the homogeneous ETAS models described in Ogata (1998). With a model's log-likelihood function, my software finds the Maximum-Likelihood Estimates (MLEs) of the model's parameters to estimate the homogeneous background rate and the temporal and spatial parameters that govern triggering effects. EM-algorithm is employed for its advantages of stability and robustness (Veen and Schoenberg, 2008). My work also presents comparisons among the three models in robustness, convergence speed, and implementations from theory to computing practice. Up-to-date regional seismic data of seismic active areas such as Southern California and Japan are used to demonstrate the comparisons. Data analysis has been done using computer languages Java and R. Java has the advantages of being strong-typed and easiness of controlling memory resources, while R has the advantages of having numerous available functions in statistical computing. Comparisons are also made between the two programming languages in convergence and stability, computational speed, and easiness of implementation. Issues that may affect convergence such as spatial shapes are discussed.

  5. Automatic analysis of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake aftershock sequence.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baillard, C.; Lyon-Caen, H.; Bollinger, L.; Rietbrock, A.; Letort, J.; Adhikari, L. B.

    2016-12-01

    The Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, that partially ruptured the Main Himalayan Thrust North of Kathmandu on the 25th April 2015, was the largest and most catastrophic earthquake striking Nepal since the great M8.4 1934 earthquake. This mainshock was followed by multiple aftershocks, among them, two notable events that occurred on the 12th May with magnitudes of 7.3 Mw and 6.3 Mw. Due to these recent events it became essential for the authorities and for the scientific community to better evaluate the seismic risk in the region through a detailed analysis of the earthquake catalog, amongst others, the spatio-temporal distribution of the Gorkha aftershock sequence. Here we complement this first study by doing a microseismic study using seismic data coming from the eastern part of the Nepalese Seismological Center network associated to one broadband station in Everest. Our primary goal is to deliver an accurate catalog of the aftershock sequence. Due to the exceptional number of events detected we performed an automatic picking/locating procedure which can be splitted in 4 steps: 1) Coarse picking of the onsets using a classical STA/LTA picker, 2) phase association of picked onsets to detect and declare seismic events, 3) Kurtosis pick refinement around theoretical arrival times to increase picking and location accuracy and, 4) local magnitude calculation based amplitude of waveforms. This procedure is time efficient ( 1 sec/event), reduces considerably the location uncertainties ( 2 to 5 km errors) and increases the number of events detected compared to manual processing. Indeed, the automatic detection rate is 10 times higher than the manual detection rate. By comparing to the USGS catalog we were able to give a new attenuation law to compute local magnitudes in the region. A detailed analysis of the seismicity shows a clear migration toward the east of the region and a sudden decrease of seismicity 100 km east of Kathmandu which may reveal the presence of a tectonic

  6. Spatio-temporal evolution of the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma aftershock sequence revealed using subspace detection and relocation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McMahon, Nicole D; Aster, Richard C.; Yeck, William; McNamara, Daniel E.; Benz, Harley M.

    2017-01-01

    The 6 November 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma is the second largest earthquake ever recorded in the state. A Mw 4.8 foreshock and the Mw 5.7 mainshock triggered a prolific aftershock sequence. Utilizing a subspace detection method, we increase by fivefold the number of precisely located events between 4 November and 5 December 2011. We find that while most aftershock energy is released in the crystalline basement, a significant number of the events occur in the overlying Arbuckle Group, indicating that active Meeker-Prague faulting extends into the sedimentary zone of wastewater disposal. Although the number of aftershocks in the Arbuckle Group is large, comprising ~40% of the aftershock catalog, the moment contribution of Arbuckle Group earthquakes is much less than 1% of the total aftershock moment budget. Aftershock locations are sparse in patches that experienced large slip during the mainshock.

  7. DETERMINATION OF ELASTIC WAVE VELOCITY AND RELATIVE HYPOCENTER LOCATIONS USING REFRACTED WAVES. II. APPLICATION TO THE HAICHENG, CHINA, AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCE.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shedlock, Kaye M.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ma, Xiufang

    1985-01-01

    The authors located the aftershocks of the February 4, 1975 Haicheng, China, aftershock sequence using an arrival time difference (ATD) simultaneous inversion method for determining the near-source (in situ) velocity and the location of the aftershocks with respect to a master event. The aftershocks define a diffuse zone, 70 km multiplied by 25 km, trending west-northwest, perpendicular to the major structural trend of the region. The main shock and most of the large aftershocks have strike-slip fault plane solutions. The preferred fault plane strikes west-northwest, and the inferred sense of motion is left-lateral. The entire Haicheng earthauake sequence appears to have been the response of an intensely faulted range boundary to a primarily east-west crustal compression and/or north-south extension.

  8. Simulation of spatial and temporal properties of aftershocks by means of the fiber bundle model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monterrubio-Velasco, Marisol; Zúñiga, F. R.; Márquez-Ramírez, Victor Hugo; Figueroa-Soto, Angel

    2017-11-01

    The rupture processes of any heterogeneous material constitute a complex physical problem. Earthquake aftershocks show temporal and spatial behaviors which are consequence of the heterogeneous stress distribution and multiple rupturing following the main shock. This process is difficult to model deterministically due to the number of parameters and physical conditions, which are largely unknown. In order to shed light on the minimum requirements for the generation of aftershock clusters, in this study, we perform a simulation of the main features of such a complex process by means of a fiber bundle (FB) type model. The FB model has been widely used to analyze the fracture process in heterogeneous materials. It is a simple but powerful tool that allows modeling the main characteristics of a medium such as the brittle shallow crust of the earth. In this work, we incorporate spatial properties, such as the Coulomb stress change pattern, which help simulate observed characteristics of aftershock sequences. In particular, we introduce a parameter ( P) that controls the probability of spatial distribution of initial loads. Also, we use a "conservation" parameter ( π), which accounts for the load dissipation of the system, and demonstrate its influence on the simulated spatio-temporal patterns. Based on numerical results, we find that P has to be in the range 0.06 < P < 0.30, whilst π needs to be limited by a very narrow range ( 0.60 < π < 0.66) in order to reproduce aftershocks pattern characteristics which resemble those of observed sequences. This means that the system requires a small difference in the spatial distribution of initial stress, and a very particular fraction of load transfer in order to generate realistic aftershocks.

  9. Nonlinear Viscoelastic Rheology and the Occurrence of Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shcherbakov, R.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Aftershocks are ubiquitous in nature. They are the manifestation of relaxation phenomena observed in various physical systems. In one prominent example, they typically occur after large earthquakes. The observed aftershock sequences usually obey several well defined non-trivial empirical laws in magnitude, temporal, and spatial domains. In many cases their characteristics follow scale-invariant distributions. The occurrence of aftershocks displays a prominent temporal behavior due to time-dependent mechanisms of stress and/or energy transfer. There are compelling evidences that the lower continental crust and upper mantle are governed by various solid state creep mechanisms. Among those mechanisms a power-law viscous flow was suggested to explain the postseismic surface deformation after large earthquakes. In this work, we consider a slider-block model to mimic the behavior of a seismogenic fault. In the model, we introduce a nonlinear viscoelastic coupling mechanism to capture the essential characteristics of crustal rheology and stress interaction between the blocks and the medium. For this purpose we employ nonlinear Kelvin-Voigt elements consisting of an elastic spring and a dashpot assembled in parallel to introduce viscoelastic coupling between the blocks and the driving plate. By mapping the model into a cellular automaton we derive the functional form of the stress transfer mechanism in the model. We show that the nonlinear viscoelasticity plays a critical role in triggering of aftershocks. It explains the functional form of the Omori-Utsu law and gives physical interpretation of its parameters. The proposed model also suggests that the power-law rheology of the fault gauge and underlying lower crust and upper mantle controls the decay rate of aftershocks. To verify this, we analyze several prominent aftershock sequences to estimate their decay rates and correlate with the rheological properties of the underlying lower crust and mantle, which were estimated

  10. Nonlinear Viscoelastic Mechanism for Aftershock Triggering and Decay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shcherbakov, R.; Zhang, X.

    2016-12-01

    Aftershocks are ubiquitous in nature. They are the manifestation of relaxation phenomena observed in various physical systems. In one prominent example, they typically occur after large earthquakes. They also occur in other natural or experimental systems, for example, in solar flares, in fracture experiments on porous materials and acoustic emissions, after stock market crashes, in the volatility of stock prices returns, in internet traffic variability and e-mail spamming, to mention a few. The observed aftershock sequences usually obey several well defined non-trivial empirical laws in magnitude, temporal, and spatial domains. In many cases their characteristics follow scale-invariant distributions. The occurrence of aftershocks displays a prominent temporal behavior due to time-dependent mechanisms of stress and/or energy transfer. In this work, we consider a slider-block model to mimic the behavior of a seismogenic fault. In the model, we introduce a nonlinear viscoelastic coupling mechanism to capture the essential characteristics of crustal rheology and stress interaction between the blocks and the medium. For this purpose we employ nonlinear Kelvin-Voigt elements consisting of an elastic spring and a dashpot assembled in parallel to introduce viscoelastic coupling between the blocks and the driving plate. By mapping the model into a cellular automaton we derive the functional form of the stress transfer mechanism in the model. We show that the nonlinear viscoelasticity plays a critical role in triggering of aftershocks. It explains the functional form of the Omori-Utsu law and gives physical interpretation of its parameters. The proposed model also suggests that the power-law rheology of the fault gauge and underlying lower crust and upper mantle control the decay rate of aftershocks. To verify this, we analyze several prominent aftershock sequences to estimate their decay rates and correlate with the rheological properties of the underlying lower crust and

  11. Afterslip Enhanced Aftershock Activity During the 2017 Earthquake Sequence Near Sulphur Peak, Idaho

    DOE PAGES

    Koper, Keith D.; Pankow, Kristine L.; Pechmann, James C.; ...

    2018-05-29

    An energetic earthquake sequence occurred during September to October 2017 near Sulphur Peak, Idaho. The normal–faulting M w 5.3 mainshock of 2 September 2017 was widely felt in Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Over 1,000 aftershocks were located within the first 2 months, 29 of which had magnitudes ≥4.0 M L. High–accuracy locations derived with data from a temporary seismic array show that the sequence occurred in the upper (<10 km) crust of the Aspen Range, east of the northern section of the range–bounding, west–dipping East Bear Lake Fault. Moment tensors for 77 of the largest events show normal and strike–slipmore » faulting with a summed aftershock moment that is 1.8–2.4 times larger than the mainshock moment. Here, we propose that the unusually high productivity of the 2017 Sulphur Peak sequence can be explained by aseismic afterslip, which triggered a secondary swarm south of the coseismic rupture zone beginning ~1 day after the mainshock.« less

  12. Afterslip Enhanced Aftershock Activity During the 2017 Earthquake Sequence Near Sulphur Peak, Idaho

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Koper, Keith D.; Pankow, Kristine L.; Pechmann, James C.

    An energetic earthquake sequence occurred during September to October 2017 near Sulphur Peak, Idaho. The normal–faulting M w 5.3 mainshock of 2 September 2017 was widely felt in Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Over 1,000 aftershocks were located within the first 2 months, 29 of which had magnitudes ≥4.0 M L. High–accuracy locations derived with data from a temporary seismic array show that the sequence occurred in the upper (<10 km) crust of the Aspen Range, east of the northern section of the range–bounding, west–dipping East Bear Lake Fault. Moment tensors for 77 of the largest events show normal and strike–slipmore » faulting with a summed aftershock moment that is 1.8–2.4 times larger than the mainshock moment. Here, we propose that the unusually high productivity of the 2017 Sulphur Peak sequence can be explained by aseismic afterslip, which triggered a secondary swarm south of the coseismic rupture zone beginning ~1 day after the mainshock.« less

  13. When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ogata, Y.; Jones, L.M.; Toda, S.

    2003-01-01

    Seismic quiescence has attracted attention as a possible precursor to a large earthquake. However, sensitive detection of quiescence requires accurate modeling of normal aftershock activity. We apply the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model that is a natural extension of the modified Omori formula for aftershock decay, allowing further clusters (secondary aftershocks) within an aftershock sequence. The Hector Mine aftershock activity has been normal, relative to the decay predicted by the ETAS model during the 14 months of available data. In contrast, although the aftershock sequence of the 1992 Landers earthquake (M = 7.3), including the 1992 Big Bear earthquake (M = 6.4) and its aftershocks, fits very well to the ETAS up until about 6 months after the main shock, the activity showed clear lowering relative to the modeled rate (relative quiescence) and lasted nearly 7 years, leading up to the Hector Mine earthquake (M = 7.1) in 1999. Specifically, the relative quiescence occurred only in the shallow aftershock activity, down to depths of 5-6 km. The sequence of deeper events showed clear, normal aftershock activity well fitted to the ETAS throughout the whole period. We argue several physical explanations for these results. Among them, we strongly suspect aseismic slips within the Hector Mine rupture source that could inhibit the crustal relaxation process within "shadow zones" of the Coulomb's failure stress change. Furthermore, the aftershock activity of the 1992 Joshua Tree earthquake (M = 6.1) sharply lowered in the same day of the main shock, which can be explained by a similar scenario.

  14. An explosion aftershock model with application to on-site inspection

    DOE PAGES

    Ford, Sean R.; Labak, Peter

    2015-02-14

    An estimate of aftershock activity due to a theoretical underground nuclear explosion is produced using an aftershock rate model. The model is developed with data from the Nevada National Security Site, formerly known as the Nevada Test Site, and the Semipalatinsk Test Site, which we take to represent soft-rock and hard-rock testing environments, respectively. Estimates of expected magnitude and number of aftershocks are calculated using the models for different testing and inspection scenarios. These estimates can help inform the Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System (SAMS) deployment in a potential Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty On-Site Inspection (OSI), by giving the OSI teammore » a probabilistic assessment of potential aftershocks in the Inspection Area (IA). The aftershock assessment, combined with an estimate of the background seismicity in the IA and an empirically derived map of threshold magnitude for the SAMS network, could aid the OSI team in reporting. Here, we apply the hard-rock model to a M5 event and combine it with the very sensitive detection threshold for OSI sensors to show that tens of events per day are expected up to a month after an explosion measured several kilometers away.« less

  15. An Explosion Aftershock Model with Application to On-Site Inspection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, Sean R.; Labak, Peter

    2016-01-01

    An estimate of aftershock activity due to a theoretical underground nuclear explosion is produced using an aftershock rate model. The model is developed with data from the Nevada National Security Site, formerly known as the Nevada Test Site, and the Semipalatinsk Test Site, which we take to represent soft-rock and hard-rock testing environments, respectively. Estimates of expected magnitude and number of aftershocks are calculated using the models for different testing and inspection scenarios. These estimates can help inform the Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System (SAMS) deployment in a potential Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty On-Site Inspection (OSI), by giving the OSI team a probabilistic assessment of potential aftershocks in the Inspection Area (IA). The aftershock assessment, combined with an estimate of the background seismicity in the IA and an empirically derived map of threshold magnitude for the SAMS network, could aid the OSI team in reporting. We apply the hard-rock model to a M5 event and combine it with the very sensitive detection threshold for OSI sensors to show that tens of events per day are expected up to a month after an explosion measured several kilometers away.

  16. Explanation of temporal clustering of tsunami sources using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric L.

    2014-01-01

    Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is examined in terms of a branching process model. It previously was observed that there are more short interevent times between consecutive tsunami sources than expected from a stationary Poisson process. The epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching process model is fitted to tsunami catalog events, using the earthquake magnitude of the causative event from the Centennial and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogs and tsunami sizes above a completeness level as a mark to indicate that a tsunami was generated. The ETAS parameters are estimated using the maximum‐likelihood method. The interevent distribution associated with the ETAS model provides a better fit to the data than the Poisson model or other temporal clustering models. When tsunamigenic conditions (magnitude threshold, submarine location, dip‐slip mechanism) are applied to the Global CMT catalog, ETAS parameters are obtained that are consistent with those estimated from the tsunami catalog. In particular, the dip‐slip condition appears to result in a near zero magnitude effect for triggered tsunami sources. The overall consistency between results from the tsunami catalog and that from the earthquake catalog under tsunamigenic conditions indicates that ETAS models based on seismicity can provide the structure for understanding patterns of tsunami source occurrence. The fractional rate of triggered tsunami sources on a global basis is approximately 14%.

  17. Variation of b and p values from aftershocks sequences along the Mexican subduction zone and their relation to plate characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ávila-Barrientos, L.; Zúñiga, F. R.; Rodríguez-Pérez, Q.; Guzmán-Speziale, M.

    2015-11-01

    Aftershock sequences along the Mexican subduction margin (between coordinates 110ºW and 91ºW) were analyzed by means of the p value from the Omori-Utsu relation and the b value from the Gutenberg-Richter relation. We focused on recent medium to large (Mw > 5.6) events considered susceptible of generating aftershock sequences suitable for analysis. The main goal was to try to find a possible correlation between aftershock parameters and plate characteristics, such as displacement rate, age and segmentation. The subduction regime of Mexico is one of the most active regions of the world with a high frequency of occurrence of medium to large events and plate characteristics change along the subduction margin. Previous studies have observed differences in seismic source characteristics at the subduction regime, which may indicate a difference in rheology and possible segmentation. The results of the analysis of the aftershock sequences indicate a slight tendency for p values to decrease from west to east with increasing of plate age although a statistical significance is undermined by the small number of aftershocks in the sequences, a particular feature distinctive of the region as compared to other world subduction regimes. The b values show an opposite, increasing trend towards the east even though the statistical significance is not enough to warrant the validation of such a trend. A linear regression between both parameters provides additional support for the inverse relation. Moreover, we calculated the seismic coupling coefficient, showing a direct relation with the p and b values. While we cannot undoubtedly confirm the hypothesis that aftershock generation depends on certain tectonic characteristics (age, thickness, temperature), our results do not reject it thus encouraging further study into this question.

  18. Adapting Pipeline Architectures to Track Developing Aftershock Sequences and Recurrent Explosions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-02-14

    Sumatra earthquake was used to study the performance of subspace detectors to detect and classify events from within a very large (Area = ~250,000 km2... detectors to identify and organize repeating waveforms discovered in multichannel seismic data streams. The framework has been tested and evaluated on...a variety of different test cases from mining blasts in Central Asia to moderate and large earthquake aftershock sequences. The framework performs

  19. Long-Delayed Aftershocks in New Zealand and the 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shebalin, P.; Baranov, S.

    2017-10-01

    We study aftershock sequences of six major earthquakes in New Zealand, including the 2016 M7.8 Kaikaoura and 2016 M7.1 North Island earthquakes. For Kaikaoura earthquake, we assess the expected number of long-delayed large aftershocks of M5+ and M5.5+ in two periods, 0.5 and 3 years after the main shocks, using 75 days of available data. We compare results with obtained for other sequences using same 75-days period. We estimate the errors by considering a set of magnitude thresholds and corresponding periods of data completeness and consistency. To avoid overestimation of the expected rates of large aftershocks, we presume a break of slope of the magnitude-frequency relation in the aftershock sequences, and compare two models, with and without the break of slope. Comparing estimations to the actual number of long-delayed large aftershocks, we observe, in general, a significant underestimation of their expected number. We can suppose that the long-delayed aftershocks may reflect larger-scale processes, including interaction of faults, that complement an isolated relaxation process. In the spirit of this hypothesis, we search for symptoms of the capacity of the aftershock zone to generate large events months after the major earthquake. We adapt an algorithm EAST, studying statistics of early aftershocks, to the case of secondary aftershocks within aftershock sequences of major earthquakes. In retrospective application to the considered cases, the algorithm demonstrates an ability to detect in advance long-delayed aftershocks both in time and space domains. Application of the EAST algorithm to the 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake zone indicates that the most likely area for a delayed aftershock of M5.5+ or M6+ is at the northern end of the zone in Cook Strait.

  20. On comprehensive recovery of an aftershock sequence with cross correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitov, I.; Bobrov, D.; Coyne, J.; Turyomurugyendo, G.

    2012-04-01

    -statistics as applied to the cross-correlation traces at individual channels of all included array stations. Thirdly, local (i.e. confined to the correlation distance around the master event) association of origin times of all qualified signals is fulfilled. These origin times are calculated from the arrival times of these signals, which are reduced to the origin times by the travel times from the master event. An aftershock sequence of a mid-size earthquake is an ideal case to test cross correlation techniques for autiomatic event building. All events should be close to the mainshock and occur within several days. Here we analyse the aftershock sequence of an earthquake in the North Atlantic Ocean with mb(IDC)=4.79. The REB includes 38 events at distances less than 150 km from the mainshock. Our ultimate goal is to excersice the complete iterative procedure to find all possible aftershocks. We start with the mainshock and recover ten aftershocks with the largest number of stations to produce an initial set of master events with the highest quality templates. Then we find all aftershocks in the REB and many additional events, which were not originally found by the IDC. Using all events found after the first iteration as master events we find new events, which are also used in the next iteration. The iterative process stops when no new events can be found. In that sense the final set of aftershocks obtained with cross correlation is a comprehensive one.

  1. Automatic recovery of aftershock sequences at the International Data Centre: from concept to pipeline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitov, I.; Bobrov, D.; Rozhkov, M.

    2016-12-01

    Aftershocks of larger earthquakes represent an important source of information on the distribution and evolution of stresses and deformations in pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic phases. For the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Organization (CTBTO) largest aftershocks sequences are also a challenge for automatic and interactive processing. The highest rate of events recorded by two and more seismic stations of the International Monitoring System from a relatively small aftershock area may reach hundreds per hour (e.g. Sumatra 2004 and Tohoku 2011). Moreover, there are thousands of reflected/refracted phases per hour with azimuth and slowness within the uncertainty limits of the first P-waves. Misassociation of these later phases, both regular and site specific, as the first P-wave results in creation of numerous wrong event hypotheses in automatic IDC pipeline. In turn, interactive review of such wrong hypotheses is direct waste of analysts' resources. Waveform cross correlation (WCC) is a powerful tool to separate coda phases from actual P-wave arrivals and to fully utilize the repeat character of waveforms generated by events close in space. Array seismic stations of the IMS enhance the performance of the WCC in two important aspects - they reduce detection threshold and effectively suppress arrivals from all sources except master events. An IDC specific aftershock tool has been developed and merged with standard IDC pipeline. The tool includes several procedures: creation of master events consisting of waveform templates at ten and more IMS stations; cross correlation (CC) of real-time waveforms with these templates, association of arrivals detected at CC-traces in event hypotheses; building events matching IDC quality criteria; and resolution of conflicts between events hypotheses created by neighboring master-events. The final cross correlation standard event lists (XSEL) is a start point of interactive analysis

  2. Mainshock-Aftershocks Clustering Detection in Volcanic Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garza Giron, R.; Brodsky, E. E.; Prejean, S. G.

    2017-12-01

    Crustal earthquakes tend to break their general Poissonean process behavior by gathering into two main kinds of seismic bursts: swarms and mainshock-aftershocks sequences. The former is commonly related to volcanic or geothermal processes whereas the latter is a characteristic feature of tectonically driven seismicity. We explore the mainshock-aftershock clustering behavior of different active volcanic regions in Japan and its comparison to non-volcanic regions. We find that aftershock production in volcanoes shows mainshock-aftershocks clustering similar to what is observed in non-volcanic areas. The ratio of volanic areas that cluster in mainshock-aftershocks sequences vs the areas that do not is comparable to the ratio of non-volcanic regions that show clustering vs the ones that do not. Furthermore, the level of production of aftershocks for most volcanic areas where clustering is present seems to be of the same order of magnitude, or slightly higher, as the median of the non-volcanic regions. An interesting example of highly aftershock-productive volcanoes emerges from the 2000 Miyakejima dike intrusion. A big seismic cluster started to build up rapidly in the south-west flank of Miyakejima to later propagate to the north-west towards the Kozushima and Niijima volcanoes. In Miyakejima the seismicity showed a swarm-like signature with a constant earthquake rate, whereas Kozushima and Niijima both had expressions of highly productive mainshock-aftershocks sequences. These findings are surprising given the alternative mechanisms available in volcanic systems for releasing deviatoric strain. We speculate that aftershock behavior might hold a relationship with the rheological properties of the rocks of each system and with the capacity of a system to accumulate or release the internal pressures caused by magmatic or hydrothermal systems.

  3. Some statistical features of the aftershock temporal behavior after the M7.4 Izmit earthquake of august 17, 1999 in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gospodinov, D.; Fajtin, H.; Rangelov, B.; Marekova, E.

    2009-04-01

    An earthquake of magnitude Mw=7.4 struck 8 km. southeast of Izmit, Turkey at 3:02 AM local time on August 17, 1999. The earthquake occurred on one of the world's longest and best studied strike-slip (horizontal motion) faults - the east-west trending North Anatolian fault. Seismologists are not able to predict the timing and sizes of individual aftershocks but stochastic modeling allows determinationof probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks duringintervals following the mainshock. The most widely applied stochastic model to depict aftershocks temporal distribution is the non- homogenous Poisson process with a decaying intensity, which follows the Modified Omori Formula (MOF) (Utsu, 1961). A more complex model, considering the triggering potential of each aftershock was developed by Ogata (1988) and it was named Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Gospodinov and Rotondi (2006) elaborated a Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS) model. The latter follows the general idea that only aftershocks stronger than some cut-off magnitude possess the capability to induce secondary aftershock activity. In this work we shall consider the Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS) model, for which the conditional intensity function turns out to be ‘ K0eα(Mi-M0)- λ (t|Ht) = + (t- ti + c)p ti < t Mi ≥ Mth (1) Here the summation occurs for all aftershocks with magnitude bigger than or equal to Mth, which took place before time. Leaving Mth to take all possible values, one can examine all RETAS model versions between the MOF and the ETAS model on the basis of the Akaike Information Criterion AIC (Akaike, 1974) AIC = - 2max log L+ 2k (2) where k is the number of parameters used in the model and logL is the logarithm of the likelihood function. Then for the model providing the best fit, we choose the one with the smallest AIC value. The purpose of this paper is to verify versions of the RETAS model (including the MOF and the

  4. Analysing the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes with recent instrumentally recorded aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mueller, K.; Hough, S.E.; Bilham, R.

    2004-01-01

    Although dynamic stress changes associated with the passage of seismic waves are thought to trigger earthquakes at great distances, more than 60 per cent of all aftershocks appear to be triggered by static stress changes within two rupture lengths of a mainshock. The observed distribution of aftershocks may thus be used to infer details of mainshock rupture geometry. Aftershocks following large mid-continental earthquakes, where background stressing rates are low, are known to persist for centuries, and models based on rate-and-state friction laws provide theoretical support for this inference. Most past studies of the New Madrid earthquake sequence have indeed assumed ongoing microseismicity to be a continuing aftershock sequence. Here we use instrumentally recorded aftershock locations and models of elastic stress change to develop a kinematically consistent rupture scenario for three of the four largest earthquakes of the 1811-1812 New Madrid sequence. Our results suggest that these three events occurred on two contiguous faults, producing lobes of increased stress near fault intersections and end points, in areas where present-day microearthquakes have been hitherto interpreted as evidence of primary mainshock rupture. We infer that the remaining New Madrid mainshock may have occurred more than 200 km north of this region in the Wabash Valley of southern Indiana and Illinois-an area that contains abundant modern microseismicity, and where substantial liquefaction was documented by historic accounts. Our results suggest that future large midplate earthquake sequences may extend over a much broader region than previously suspected.

  5. Longer aftershocks duration in extensional tectonic settings.

    PubMed

    Valerio, E; Tizzani, P; Carminati, E; Doglioni, C

    2017-11-27

    Aftershocks number decay through time, depending on several parameters peculiar to each seismogenic regions, including mainshock magnitude, crustal rheology, and stress changes along the fault. However, the exact role of these parameters in controlling the duration of the aftershock sequence is still unknown. Here, using two methodologies, we show that the tectonic setting primarily controls the duration of aftershocks. On average and for a given mainshock magnitude (1) aftershock sequences are longer and (2) the number of earthquakes is greater in extensional tectonic settings than in contractional ones. We interpret this difference as related to the different type of energy dissipated during earthquakes. In detail, (1) a joint effect of gravitational forces and pure elastic stress release governs extensional earthquakes, whereas (2) pure elastic stress release controls contractional earthquakes. Accordingly, normal faults operate in favour of gravity, preserving inertia for a longer period and seismicity lasts until gravitational equilibrium is reached. Vice versa, thrusts act against gravity, exhaust their inertia faster and the elastic energy dissipation is buffered by the gravitational force. Hence, for seismic sequences of comparable magnitude and rheological parameters, aftershocks last longer in extensional settings because gravity favours the collapse of the hangingwall volumes.

  6. Imaging 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake and Its Aftershock Sequence Combining Multiple Calibrated Global Seismic Arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LI, B.; Ghosh, A.

    2016-12-01

    The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake provides a good opportunity to study the tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Himalayas, one of the most seismically active plate boundaries. Details of the seismicity patterns and associated structures in the Himalayas are poorly understood mainly due to limited instrumentation. Here, we apply a back-projection method to study the mainshock rupture and the following aftershock sequence using four large aperture global seismic arrays. All the arrays show eastward rupture propagation of about 130 km and reveal similar evolution of seismic energy radiation, with strong high-frequency energy burst about 50 km north of Kathmandu. Each single array, however, is typically limited by large azimuthal gap, low resolution, and artifacts due to unmodeled velocity structures. Therefore, we use a self-consistent empirical calibration method to combine four different arrays to image the Gorkha event. It greatly improves the resolution, can better track rupture and reveal details that cannot be resolved by any individual array. In addition, we also use the same arrays at teleseismic distances and apply a back-projection technique to detect and locate the aftershocks immediately following the Gorkha earthquake. We detect about 2.5 times the aftershocks recorded by the Advance National Seismic System comprehensive earthquake catalog during the 19 days following the mainshock. The aftershocks detected by the arrays show an east-west trend in general, with majority of the aftershocks located at the eastern part of the rupture patch and surrounding the rupture zone of the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock. Overall spatiotemporal aftershock pattern agrees well with global catalog, with our catalog showing more details relative to the standard global catalog. The improved aftershock catalog enables us to better study the aftershock dynamics, stress evolution in this region. Moreover, rapid and better imaging of aftershock distribution may aid rapid response

  7. Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Yicun; Zhuang, Jiancang; Hirata, Naoshi; Zhou, Shiyong

    2017-07-01

    The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe and analyze the clustering behavior of seismicity. Instead of regarding large earthquakes as point sources, the finite-source ETAS model treats them as ruptures that extend in space. Each earthquake rupture consists of many patches, and each patch triggers its own aftershocks isotropically. We design an iterative algorithm to invert the unobserved fault geometry based on the stochastic reconstruction method. This model is applied to analyze the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalog during 1964-2014. We take six great earthquakes with magnitudes >7.5 after 1980 as finite sources and reconstruct the aftershock productivity patterns on each rupture surface. Comparing results from the point-source ETAS model, we find the following: (1) the finite-source model improves the data fitting; (2) direct aftershock productivity is heterogeneous on the rupture plane; (3) the triggering abilities of M5.4+ events are enhanced; (4) the background rate is higher in the off-fault region and lower in the on-fault region for the Tohoku earthquake, while high probabilities of direct aftershocks distribute all over the source region in the modified model; (5) the triggering abilities of five main shocks become 2-6 times higher after taking the rupture geometries into consideration; and (6) the trends of the cumulative background rate are similar in both models, indicating the same levels of detection ability for seismicity anomalies. Moreover, correlations between aftershock productivity and slip distributions imply that aftershocks within rupture faults are adjustments to coseismic stress changes due to slip heterogeneity.

  8. 2010 Chile Earthquake Aftershock Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barientos, Sergio

    2010-05-01

    1906? Since the number of M>7.0 aftershocks has been low, does the distribution of large-magnitude aftershocks differ from previous events of this size? What is the origin of the extensional-type aftershocks at shallow depths within the upper plate? The international seismological community (France, Germany, U.K., U.S.A.) in collaboration with the Chilean seismological community responded with a total of 140 portable seismic stations to deploy in order to record aftershocks. This combined with the Chilean permanent seismic network, in the area results in 180 stations now in operation recording continuous at 100 cps. The seismic equipment is a mix of accelerometers, short -period and broadband seismic sensors deployed along the entire length of the aftershock zone that will record the aftershock sequence for three to six months. The collected seismic data will be merged and archived to produce an international data set open to the entire seismological community immediately after archiving. Each international group will submit their data as soon as possible in standard (mini seed) format with accompanying meta data to the IRIS DMC where the data will be merged into a combined data set and available to individuals and other data centers. This will be by far the best-recorded aftershock sequence of a large megathrust earthquake. This outstanding international collaboration will provide an open data set for this important earthquake as well as provide a model for future aftershock deployments around the world.

  9. Aftershocks and triggered events of the Great 1906 California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    and an M ???5.0 event under or near Santa Monica Bay, 11.3 and 31.3 hr after the San Francisco mainshock, respectively. The western Arizona event is inferred to have been triggered dynamically. In general, the largest aftershocks occurred at the ends of the 1906 rupture or away from the rupture entirely; very few significant aftershocks occurred along the mainshock rupture itself. The total number of large aftershocks was less than predicted by a generic model based on typical California mainshock-aftershock statistics, and the 1906 sequence appears to have decayed more slowly than average California sequences. Similarities can be drawn between the 1906 aftershock sequence and that of the 1857 (Mw 7.9) San Andreas fault earthquake.

  10. Aftershocks of the 2014 South Napa, California, Earthquake: Complex faulting on secondary faults

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Shelly, David R.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the aftershock sequence of the 2014 MW6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake. Low-magnitude aftershocks missing from the network catalog are detected by applying a matched-filter approach to continuous seismic data, with the catalog earthquakes serving as the waveform templates. We measure precise differential arrival times between events, which we use for double-difference event relocation in a 3D seismic velocity model. Most aftershocks are deeper than the mainshock slip, and most occur west of the mapped surface rupture. While the mainshock coseismic and postseismic slip appears to have occurred on the near-vertical, strike-slip West Napa fault, many of the aftershocks occur in a complex zone of secondary faulting. Earthquake locations in the main aftershock zone, near the mainshock hypocenter, delineate multiple dipping secondary faults. Composite focal mechanisms indicate strike-slip and oblique-reverse faulting on the secondary features. The secondary faults were moved towards failure by Coulomb stress changes from the mainshock slip. Clusters of aftershocks north and south of the main aftershock zone exhibit vertical strike-slip faulting more consistent with the West Napa Fault. The northern aftershocks correspond to the area of largest mainshock coseismic slip, while the main aftershock zone is adjacent to the fault area that has primarily slipped postseismically. Unlike most creeping faults, the zone of postseismic slip does not appear to contain embedded stick-slip patches that would have produced on-fault aftershocks. The lack of stick-slip patches along this portion of the fault may contribute to the low productivity of the South Napa aftershock sequence.

  11. Analysis of November 3, 2010 Kraljevo Earthquake (Mw=5.4) and Its Aftershock Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knezevic Antonijevic, S.; Arroucau, P.; Vlahovic, G.

    2011-12-01

    A Mw=5.4 earthquake occurred on November 3, 2010 near the City of Kraljevo, Serbia (lat. 43.765 N, long. 20.713 E) and was followed by a sequence of more than 650 aftershocks with magnitude greater than 1.0. Despite the moderate magnitude of the event, two people were killed, many other were injured, and the total damage to the city is estimated to more than 150 million dollars. Changes in ground water circulation, liquefaction features and rockfalls have also been reported in some places. The earthquake occurred on the southern rim of the Pannonian Basin, in SE-NW-trending Čačak-Kraljevo Basin, also known as West Morava graben. This basin was formed by activation of several deep and secondary shallower faults during Lower Miocene and represents the largest of the intradinaric depressions. Depths proposed by different agencies for the mainshock range between 2 and 30 km. Moment tensor solutions show a mostly strike-slip component on an EW or NS trending fault, with either normal or reverse component depending on the solutions. In order to better characterize the location and source characteristics of that earthquake, we obtained data from seismological institutions of Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Greece, Albania, Romania and Italy and we manually picked P and S wave arrival times and first motion polarities on the available seismograms for the entire mainshock-aftershock sequence. More than 100 events were precisely relocated and focal mechanisms were determined in the best cases. Our results confirm that Kraljevo earthquake probably involved the activation in strike-slip regime of an EW-trending fault located in the northern rim of the West Morava Graben, while the seismicity of the past decades was mostly confined to the southern rim of that basin. Key words: Seismotectonic, Balkan region, Serbia, Čačak-Kraljevo Basin, aftershock sequence, earthquake location, focal mechanism

  12. Repeating aftershocks of the great 2004 Sumatra and 2005 Nias earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Wen-che; Song, Teh-Ru Alex; Silver, Paul G.

    2013-05-01

    We investigate repeating aftershocks associated with the great 2004 Sumatra-Andaman (Mw 9.2) and 2005 Nias-Simeulue (Mw 8.6) earthquakes by cross-correlating waveforms recorded by the regional seismographic station PSI and teleseismic stations. We identify 10 and 18 correlated aftershock sequences associated with the great 2004 Sumatra and 2005 Nias earthquakes, respectively. The majority of the correlated aftershock sequences are located near the down-dip end of a large afterslip patch. We determine the precise relative locations of event pairs among these sequences and estimate the source rupture areas. The correlated event pairs identified are appropriately referred to as repeating aftershocks, in that the source rupture areas are comparable and significantly overlap within a sequence. We use the repeating aftershocks to estimate afterslip based on the slip-seismic moment scaling relationship and to infer the temporal decay rate of the recurrence interval. The estimated afterslip resembles that measured from the near-field geodetic data to the first order. The decay rate of repeating aftershocks as a function of lapse time t follows a power-law decay 1/tp with the exponent p in the range 0.8-1.1. Both types of observations indicate that repeating aftershocks are governed by post-seismic afterslip.

  13. A case study of two M~5 mainshocks in Anza, California: Is the footprint of an aftershock sequence larger than we think?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fritts, Karen R.; Kilb, Debi

    2009-01-01

    It has been traditionally held that aftershocks occur within one to two fault lengths of the mainshock. Here we demonstrate that this perception has been shaped by the sensitivity of seismic networks. The 31 October 2001 Mw 5.0 and 12 June 2005 Mw 5.2 Anza mainshocks in southern California occurred in the middle of the densely instrumented ANZA seismic network and thus were unusually well recorded. For the June 2005 event, aftershocks as small as M 0.0 could be observed stretching for at least 50 km along the San Jacinto fault even though the mainshock fault was only ∼4.5 km long. It was hypothesized that an observed aseismic slipping patch produced a spatially extended aftershock-triggering source, presumably slowing the decay of aftershock density with distance and leading to a broader aftershock zone. We find, however, the decay of aftershock density with distance for both Anza sequences to be similar to that observed elsewhere in California. This indicates there is no need for an additional triggering mechanism and suggests that given widespread dense instrumentation, aftershock sequences would routinely have footprints much larger than currently expected. Despite the large 2005 aftershock zone, we find that the probability that the 2005 Anza mainshock triggered the M 4.9 Yucaipa mainshock, which occurred 4.2 days later and 72 km away, to be only 14%±1%. This probability is a strong function of the time delay; had the earthquakes been separated by only an hour, the probability of triggering would have been 89%.

  14. Why aftershock duration matters for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shinji Toda,; Stein, Ross S.

    2018-01-01

    Most hazard assessments assume that high background seismicity rates indicate a higher probability of large shocks and, therefore, of strong shaking. However, in slowly deforming regions, such as eastern North America, Australia, and inner Honshu, this assumption breaks down if the seismicity clusters are instead aftershocks of historic and prehistoric mainshocks. Here, therefore we probe the circumstances under which aftershocks can last for 100–1000 years. Basham and Adams (1983) and Ebel et al. (2000) proposed that intraplate seismicity in eastern North America could be aftershocks of mainshocks that struck hundreds of years beforehand, a view consonant with rate–state friction (Dieterich, 1994), in which aftershock duration varies inversely with fault‐stressing rate. To test these hypotheses, we estimate aftershock durations of the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku‐Oki rupture at 12 sites up to 250 km from the source, as well as for the near‐fault aftershocks of eight large Japanese mainshocks, sampling faults slipping 0.01 to 80  mm/yr . Whereas aftershock productivity increases with mainshock magnitude, we find that aftershock duration, the time until the aftershock rate decays to the premainshock rate, does not. Instead, aftershock sequences lasted a month on the fastest‐slipping faults and are projected to persist for more than 2000 years on the slowest. Thus, long aftershock sequences can misguide and inflate hazard assessments in intraplate regions if misinterpreted as background seismicity, whereas areas between seismicity clusters may instead harbor a higher chance of large mainshocks, the opposite of what is being assumed today.

  15. The Hellenic Seismological Network Of Crete (HSNC): Validation and results of the 2013 aftershock sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatzopoulos, Georgios; Papadopoulos, Ilias; Vallianatos, Filippos

    2015-04-01

    The number and quality of seismological networks in Europe has increased in the past decades. Nevertheless, the need for localized networks monitoring areas of great seismic and scientific interest is constant. Hellenic Seismological Network of Crete (HSNC) covers this need for the vicinity of the South Aegean Sea and Crete Island. In the present work with the use of Z-map software (www.seismo.ethz.ch) the spatial variability of Magnitude of Completeness (Mc) is calculated from HSNC's manual analysis catalogue of events for the period 2011 until today, proving the good coverage of HSNC in the areas. Furthermore the 2013, South Aegean seismicity where two large shallow earthquakes occurred in the vicinity of Crete Island, is discussed. The first event takes place on 15th June 2013 in the front of the Hellenic Arc, south from central Crete, while the second one on 12th October, 2013 on the western part of Crete. The two main shocks and their aftershock sequences have been relocated with the use of hypoinverse earthquake location software and an appropriate crust model. The HSNC identified more than 500 and 300 aftershocks respectively followed after the main events. The detailed construction of aftershocks catalogue permits the applicability of modern theories based on complexity sciences as described recently in the frame of non extensive statistical physics. In addition site effects in the stations locations are presented using event and noise recordings. This work was implemented through the project IMPACT-ARC in the framework of action "ARCHIMEDES III-Support of Research Teams at TEI of Crete" (MIS380353) of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" and is co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national funds References A. Tzanis and F. Vallianatos, "Distributed power-law seismicity changes and crustal deformation in the EW Hellenic Arc", Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences, 3, 179-195, 2003 F. Vallianatos, G

  16. Aftershocks of the 13 May 1993 Shumagin Alaska earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lu, Zhong; Wyss, Max; Tytgat, Guy; McNutt, Steve; Stihler, Scott

    1994-01-01

    The 13 May 1993 Ms 6.9 Shumagin earthquake had an aftershock sequence of 247 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than or equal to 1.5 by 1 June 1993. Of these aftershocks, 79 were located by using S-P travel times at the only two stations within 570 km of the mainshock epicenter. The rupture area inferred from the aftershocks is about 600 km2 and we estimate for the mainshock a mean fault displacement of 1.0 m and a 28 bar stress drop. The magnitude-frequency plots give a b-value for the aftershock sequence of about 0.4, which is low compared to the background value of approximately 0.8. The decay of the aftershock sequence followed the modified Omori law with a p-value of 0.79, which is also lower than the typical values of about 1.1 observed in Alaska. Both of these facts can be interpreted as indicating relatively high ambient stress in the Shumagin seismic gap and the possibility that the 13 May earthquake was a foreshock to a larger gap-filling event to occur within the next few years.

  17. Some facts about aftershocks to large earthquakes in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Reasenberg, Paul A.

    1996-01-01

    Earthquakes occur in clusters. After one earthquake happens, we usually see others at nearby (or identical) locations. To talk about this phenomenon, seismologists coined three terms foreshock , mainshock , and aftershock. In any cluster of earthquakes, the one with the largest magnitude is called the mainshock; earthquakes that occur before the mainshock are called foreshocks while those that occur after the mainshock are called aftershocks. A mainshock will be redefined as a foreshock if a subsequent event in the cluster has a larger magnitude. Aftershock sequences follow predictable patterns. That is, a sequence of aftershocks follows certain global patterns as a group, but the individual earthquakes comprising the group are random and unpredictable. This relationship between the pattern of a group and the randomness (stochastic nature) of the individuals has a close parallel in actuarial statistics. We can describe the pattern that aftershock sequences tend to follow with well-constrained equations. However, we must keep in mind that the actual aftershocks are only probabilistically described by these equations. Once the parameters in these equations have been estimated, we can determine the probability of aftershocks occurring in various space, time and magnitude ranges as described below. Clustering of earthquakes usually occurs near the location of the mainshock. The stress on the mainshock's fault changes drastically during the mainshock and that fault produces most of the aftershocks. This causes a change in the regional stress, the size of which decreases rapidly with distance from the mainshock. Sometimes the change in stress caused by the mainshock is great enough to trigger aftershocks on other, nearby faults. While there is no hard "cutoff" distance beyond which an earthquake is totally incapable of triggering an aftershock, the vast majority of aftershocks are located close to the mainshock. As a rule of thumb, we consider earthquakes to be

  18. International Aftershock Forecasting: Lessons from the Gorkha Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michael, A. J.; Blanpied, M. L.; Brady, S. R.; van der Elst, N.; Hardebeck, J.; Mayberry, G. C.; Page, M. T.; Smoczyk, G. M.; Wein, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    Following the M7.8 Gorhka, Nepal, earthquake of April 25, 2015 the USGS issued a series of aftershock forecasts. The initial impetus for these forecasts was a request from the USAID Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance to support their Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) which coordinated US Government disaster response, including search and rescue, with the Government of Nepal. Because of the possible utility of the forecasts to people in the region and other response teams, the USGS released these forecasts publicly through the USGS Earthquake Program web site. The initial forecast used the Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) model with generic parameters developed for active deep continental regions based on the Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) tectonic regionalization. These were then updated to reflect a lower productivity and higher decay rate based on the observed aftershocks, although relying on teleseismic observations, with a high magnitude-of-completeness, limited the amount of data. After the 12 May M7.3 aftershock, the forecasts used an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model to better characterize the multiple sources of earthquake clustering. This model provided better estimates of aftershock uncertainty. These forecast messages were crafted based on lessons learned from the Christchurch earthquake along with input from the U.S. Embassy staff in Kathmandu. Challenges included how to balance simple messaging with forecasts over a variety of time periods (week, month, and year), whether to characterize probabilities with words such as those suggested by the IPCC (IPCC, 2010), how to word the messages in a way that would translate accurately into Nepali and not alarm the public, and how to present the probabilities of unlikely but possible large and potentially damaging aftershocks, such as the M7.3 event, which had an estimated probability of only 1-in-200 for the week in which it occurred.

  19. Anomalous stress diffusion, Omori's law and Continuous Time Random Walk in the 2010 Efpalion aftershock sequence (Corinth rift, Greece)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michas, Georgios; Vallianatos, Filippos; Karakostas, Vassilios; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Sammonds, Peter

    2014-05-01

    Efpalion aftershock sequence occurred in January 2010, when an M=5.5 earthquake was followed four days later by another strong event (M=5.4) and numerous aftershocks (Karakostas et al., 2012). This activity interrupted a 15 years period of low to moderate earthquake occurrence in Corinth rift, where the last major event was the 1995 Aigion earthquake (M=6.2). Coulomb stress analysis performed in previous studies (Karakostas et al., 2012; Sokos et al., 2012; Ganas et al., 2013) indicated that the second major event and most of the aftershocks were triggered due to stress transfer. The aftershocks production rate decays as a power-law with time according to the modified Omori law (Utsu et al., 1995) with an exponent larger than one for the first four days, while after the occurrence of the second strong event the exponent turns to unity. We consider the earthquake sequence as a point process in time and space and study its spatiotemporal evolution considering a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) model with a joint probability density function of inter-event times and jumps between the successive earthquakes (Metzler and Klafter, 2000). Jump length distribution exhibits finite variance, whereas inter-event times scale as a q-generalized gamma distribution (Michas et al., 2013) with a long power-law tail. These properties are indicative of a subdiffusive process in terms of CTRW. Additionally, the mean square displacement of aftershocks is constant with time after the occurrence of the first event, while it changes to a power-law with exponent close to 0.15 after the second major event, illustrating a slow diffusive process. During the first four days aftershocks cluster around the epicentral area of the second major event, while after that and taking as a reference the second event, the aftershock zone is migrating slowly with time to the west near the epicentral area of the first event. This process is much slower from what would be expected from normal diffusion, a

  20. Modeling Aftershocks and Foreshocks by Time-Dependent Friction Laws

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lippiello, E.; Landes, F.

    2017-12-01

    The transition with depth from rate-weakening to rate-strengthening rheology represents a viable mechanism to explain both afterslip and the temporal and spatial organization of aftershocks(Avouac, Annu. Rev. Eart Planet Sci. 2015).On the other hand, elastic models for seismic faults, as the Burridge-Knopoff model, are able to reproduce the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law (de Arcangelis et al., Phys. Rep. 2016). Here we show that the two approaches can be combined in a minimal model containing only a parameter controlling the heterogeneities of the friction force. The key ingredient is the presence of a time-dependent friction on a temporal scale intermediate between the instantaneous scale of fracture propagation and the very slow one of the driving rate. Several features of aftershocks as the GR law, the productivity law, the spatial clustering and the temporal decay of the aftershock number, appear universal properties independent of details of model parameters and friction law. Quantitative agreement with the Omori law constraints the friction law according to a velocity strengthening rheology. The model also provides agreement with recent experimental results on the statistical properties of foreshock occurrence (Lippiello et al. , Pageoph, 2017). We then obtain insights on the nucleation phase preceding mainshocks which we compare with existing models (Ohnaka, Tectonophysics 1992).

  1. Aftershock collapse vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete frame structures

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Raghunandan, Meera; Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    In a seismically active region, structures may be subjected to multiple earthquakes, due to mainshock–aftershock phenomena or other sequences, leaving no time for repair or retrofit between the events. This study quantifies the aftershock vulnerability of four modern ductile reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings in California by conducting incremental dynamic analysis of nonlinear MDOF analytical models. Based on the nonlinear dynamic analysis results, collapse and damage fragility curves are generated for intact and damaged buildings. If the building is not severely damaged in the mainshock, its collapse capacity is unaffected in the aftershock. However, if the building is extensively damaged in the mainshock, there is a significant reduction in its collapse capacity in the aftershock. For example, if an RC frame experiences 4% or more interstory drift in the mainshock, the median capacity to resist aftershock shaking is reduced by about 40%. The study also evaluates the effectiveness of different measures of physical damage observed in the mainshock-damaged buildings for predicting the reduction in collapse capacity of the damaged building in subsequent aftershocks. These physical damage indicators for the building are chosen such that they quantify the qualitative red tagging (unsafe for occupation) criteria employed in post-earthquake evaluation of RC frames. The results indicated that damage indicators related to the drift experienced by the damaged building best predicted the reduced aftershock collapse capacities for these ductile structures.

  2. The Constantine (Algeria) seismic sequence of 27 October 1985: a new rupture model from aftershock relocation, focal mechanisms, and stress tensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ousadou, F.; Dorbath, L.; Dorbath, C.; Bounif, M. A.; Benhallou, H.

    2013-04-01

    The October 27, 1985 Constantine earthquake of magnitude MS 5.9 (NEIC) although moderate is the strongest earthquake recorded in the eastern Tellian Atlas (northeast Algeria) since the beginning of instrumental seismology. The main shock locations given by different institutions are scattered and up to 10 km away northwest from the NE-SW 30 km long elongated aftershocks cloud localized by a dedicated temporary portable network. The focal mechanism indicates left-lateral strike-slip on an almost vertical fault with a small reverse component on the northwest dipping plane. This paper presents relocations of the main shock and aftershocks using TomoDD. One hundred thirty-eight individual focal mechanisms have been built allowing the determination of the stress tensor at different scales. A rupture model has been suggested, which explains the different observations of aftershock distribution and stress tensor rotation.

  3. Aftershock Forecasting: Recent Developments and Lessons from the 2016 M5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma, Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michael, A. J.; Field, E. H.; Hardebeck, J.; Llenos, A. L.; Milner, K. R.; Page, M. T.; Perry, S. C.; van der Elst, N.; Wein, A. M.

    2016-12-01

    After the Mw 5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma, earthquake of September 3, 2016 the USGS issued a series of aftershock forecasts for the next month and year. These forecasts were aimed at the emergency response community, those making decisions about well operations in the affected region, and the general public. The forecasts were generated manually using methods planned for automatically released Operational Aftershock Forecasts. The underlying method is from Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) with improvements recently published in Page et al. (BSSA, 2016), implemented in a JAVA Graphical User Interface and presented in a template that is under development. The methodological improvements include initial models based on the tectonic regime as defined by Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) and the inclusion of both uncertainty in the clustering parameters and natural random variability. We did not utilize the time-dependent magnitude of completeness model from Page et al. because it applies only to teleseismic events recorded by NEIC. The parameters for Garcia's Generic Active Continental Region underestimated the modified-Omori decay parameter and underestimated the aftershock rate by a factor of 2. And the sequence following the Mw 5.7 Prague, Oklahoma, earthquake of November 6, 2011 was about 3 to 4 times more productive than the Pawnee sequence. The high productivity for these potentially induced sequences is consistent with an increase in productivity in Oklahoma since 2009 (Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013) and makes a general tectonic model inapplicable to sequences in this region. Soon after the mainshock occurred, the forecasts relied on the sequence specific parameters. After one month, the Omori decay parameter p is less than one, implying a very long-lived sequence. However, the decay parameter is known to be biased low at early times due to secondary aftershock triggering, and the p-value determined early in the sequence may be inaccurate for long-term forecasting.

  4. Aftershocks driven by afterslip and fluid pressure sweeping through a fault-fracture mesh

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Zachary E.; Rollins, Christopher; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Hauksson, Egill; Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Ben-Zion, Yehuda

    2017-01-01

    A variety of physical mechanisms are thought to be responsible for the triggering and spatiotemporal evolution of aftershocks. Here we analyze a vigorous aftershock sequence and postseismic geodetic strain that occurred in the Yuha Desert following the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. About 155,000 detected aftershocks occurred in a network of orthogonal faults and exhibit features of two distinct mechanisms for aftershock triggering. The earliest aftershocks were likely driven by afterslip that spread away from the main shock with the logarithm of time. A later pulse of aftershocks swept again across the Yuha Desert with square root time dependence and swarm-like behavior; together with local geological evidence for hydrothermalism, these features suggest that the events were driven by fluid diffusion. The observations illustrate how multiple driving mechanisms and the underlying fault structure jointly control the evolution of an aftershock sequence.

  5. Foreshocks and aftershocks of the Great 1857 California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

    1999-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults anywhere in the world, yet we know little about many aspects of its behavior before, during, and after large earthquakes. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 M 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the central and southern segments of the fault. We began by searching archived first-hand accounts from 1857 through 1862, by grouping felt reports temporally, and by assigning modified Mercalli intensities to each site. We then used a modified form of the grid-search algorithm of Bakum and Wentworth, derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes, to find the location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for each of the largest events. The result confirms a conclusion of Sieh that at least two foreshocks ('dawn' and 'sunrise') located on or near the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault preceded the mainshock. We estimate their magnitudes to be M ~ 6.1 and M ~ 5.6, respectively. The aftershock rate was below average but within one standard deviation of the number of aftershocks expected based on statistics of modern southern California mainshock-aftershock sequences. The aftershocks included two significant events during the first eight days of the sequence, with magnitudes M ~ 6.25 and M ~ 6.7, near the southern half of the rupture; later aftershocks included a M ~ 6 event near San Bernardino in December 1858 and a M ~ 6.3 event near the Parkfield segment in April 1860. From earthquake logs at Fort Tejon, we conclude that the aftershock sequence lasted a minimum of 3.75 years.

  6. Mapping the rheology of the Central Chile subduction zone with aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frank, William B.; Poli, Piero; Perfettini, Hugo

    2017-06-01

    The postseismic deformation following a large (Mw >7) earthquake is expressed both seismically and aseismically. Recent studies have appealed to a model that suggests that the aseismic slip on the plate interface following the mainshock can be the driving factor in aftershock sequences, reproducing both the geodetic (afterslip) and seismic (aftershocks) observables of postseismic deformation. Exploiting this model, we demonstrate how a dense catalog of aftershocks following the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake in Central Chile can constrain the frictional and rheological properties of the creeping regions of the subduction interface. We first expand the aftershock catalog via a 19 month continuous matched-filter search and highlight the log-time expansion of seismicity following the mainshock, suggestive of afterslip as the main driver of aftershock activity. We then show how the time history of aftershocks can constrain the temporal evolution of afterslip. Finally, we use our dense aftershock catalog to estimate the rate and state rheological parameter (a - b)σ as a function of depth and demonstrate that this low value is compatible either with a nearly velocity-neutral friction (a≈b) in the regions of the megathrust that host afterslip, or an elevated pore fluid pressure (low effective normal stress σ) along the plate interface. Our results present the first snapshot of rheology in depth together with the evolution of the tectonic stressing rate along a plate boundary. The framework described here can be generalized to any tectonic context and provides a novel way to constrain the frictional properties and loading conditions of active faults.

  7. Temporal variation of aftershocks by means of multifractal characterization of their inter-event time and cluster analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueroa-Soto, A.; Zuñiga, R.; Marquez-Ramirez, V.; Monterrubio-Velasco, M.

    2017-12-01

    . The inter-event time characteristics of seismic aftershock sequences can provide important information to discern stages in the aftershock generation process. In order to investigate whether separate dynamic stages can be identified, (1) aftershock series after selected earthquake mainshocks, which took place at similar tectonic regimes were analyzed. To this end we selected two well-defined aftershock sequences from New Zealand and one aftershock sequence for Mexico, we (2) analyzed the fractal behavior of the logarithm of inter-event times (also called waiting times) of aftershocks by means of Holdeŕs exponent, and (3) their magnitude and spatial location based on a methodology proposed by Zaliapin and Ben Zion [2011] which accounts for the clustering properties of the sequence. In general, more than two coherent process stages can be identified following the main rupture, evidencing a type of "cascade" process which precludes implying a single generalized power law even though the temporal rate and average fractal character appear to be unique (as in a single Omorís p value). We found that aftershock processes indeed show multi-fractal characteristics, which may be related to different stages in the process of diffusion, as seen in the temporary-spatial distribution of aftershocks. Our method provides a way of defining the onset of the return to seismic background activity and the end of the main aftershock sequence.

  8. The 3-D aftershock distribution of three recent M5~5.5 earthquakes in the Anza region,California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Q.; Wdowinski, S.; Lin, G.

    2011-12-01

    The San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) exhibits the highest level of seismicity compared to other regions in southern California. On average, it produces four earthquakes per day, most of them at depth of 10-17 km. Over the past decade, an increasing seismic activity occurred in the Anza region, which included three M5~5.5 events and their aftershock sequences. These events occurred in 2001, 2005, and 2010. In this research we map the 3-D distribution of these three events to evaluate their rupture geometry and better understand the unusual deep seismic pattern along the SJFZ, which was termed "deep creep" (Wdowinski, 2009). We relocated 97,562 events from 1981 to 2011 in Anza region by applying the Source-Specific Station Term (SSST) method (Lin et al., 2006) and used an accurate 1-D velocity model derived from 3-D model of Lin et al (2007) and used In order to separate the aftershock sequence from background seismicity, we characterized each of the three aftershock sequences using Omori's law. Preliminary results show that all three sequences had a similar geometry of deep elongated aftershock distribution. Most aftershocks occurred at depth of 10-17 km and extended over a 70 km long segments of the SJFZ, centered at the mainshock hypocenters. A comparative study of other M5~5.5 mainshocks and their aftershock sequences in southern California reveals very different geometrical pattern, suggesting that the three Anza M5~5.5 events are unique and can be indicative of "deep creep" deformation processes. Reference 1.Lin, G.and Shearer,P.M.,2006, The COMPLOC earthquake location package,Seism. Res. Lett.77, pp.440-444. 2.Lin, G. and Shearer, P.M., Hauksson, E., and Thurber C.H.,2007, A three-dimensional crustal seismic velocity model for southern California from a composite event method,J. Geophys.Res.112, B12306, doi: 10.1029/ 2007JB004977. 3.Wdowinski, S. ,2009, Deep creep as a cause for the excess seismicity along the San Jacinto fault, Nat. Geosci.,doi:10.1038/NGEO684.

  9. Analysis of the 2012 Ahar-Varzeghan (Iran) seismic sequence: Insights from statistical and stress transfer modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yazdi, Pouye; Santoyo, Miguel Angel; Gaspar-Escribano, Jorge M.

    2018-02-01

    The 2012 Ahar-Varzeghan (Northwestern Iran) earthquake doublet and its following seismic sequence are analyzed in this paper. First, it is examined the time-varying statistical characteristics of seismic activity since the occurrence of the doublet (two large events with Mw = 6.4 and 6.2) that initiated the sequence on 11 August 2012. A power law magnitude-frequency distribution (1.9 ≤ M ≤ 6.4) is obtained, with relatively low b-values for the complete series indicating the existence of relatively large magnitudes and high-stress level in the area. The Omori-Utsu model of the aftershock population decay with time shows a moderate decrease in activity rate. An epidemic-type aftershock sequence model that separates background seismicity from triggered aftershocks is then used to describe the temporal evolution of the seismicity during the period following the occurrence of the doublet. Results for the entire series (above cutoff magnitude Mc = 1.9) indicate a relatively low productivity related to the earthquake-earthquake triggering. Indeed, the majority of these events seems to be generated by underlying transient or aseismic processes, which might be added to the tectonic loading stress. The proportion of aftershock events significantly increases when the analysis is limited to larger events (M ≥ 3.0) suggesting that the triggered large aftershocks entail a substantial portion of the energy released. In order to analyze the spatial distribution of the sequence, new source models are proposed for the two main shocks. For the first shock, the coseismic slip distribution is constrained by the available data on surface ruptures. A Coulomb failure stress transfer model produced by the first event along optimally-oriented planes allows identifying the areas with positive stress loads where the rupture of the subsequent aftershocks may have occurred. The positive Δ CFS areas are compared for two depth intervals: 3-10 km and 15-22 km overlapping over 350 relocated

  10. Hurricane Irene's Impacts on the Aftershock Sequence of the 2011 Mw5.8 Virginia Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Yang, H.; Allman, S.

    2013-12-01

    Recent studies have shown that typhoon could trigger shallow slow-slip events in Taiwan. However, it is unclear whether such extreme weather events could affect the occurrence of regular earthquakes as well. A good opportunity to test this hypothesis occurred in 2011 when an Mw 5.8 earthquake struck Louisa County, Virginia. This event ruptured a shallow, reverse fault. Roughly 5 days later, hurricane Irene struck the coast of Norfolk, Virginia, which is near the epicentral region of the Virginia mainshock. Because aftershocks listed in the ANSS catalog were incomplete immediately after the main shock, it is very difficult to find the genuine correlation between the seismicity rate changes and hurricane Irene. Hence, we use a recently developed waveform matched filter technique to scan through the continuous seismic data to detect small aftershocks that are previously unidentified. A mixture of 7 temporary stations from the IRIS Ramp deployment and 8 temporary stations deployed by Virginia Tech is used. The temporary stations were set up between 24 to 72 hours following the main shock around its immediate vicinity, which provides us a unique dataset recording the majority aftershock sequence of an intraplate earthquake. We us 80 aftershocks identified by Chapman [2013] as template events and scan through the continuous data from 23 August 2011 through 10 September 2011. So far, we have detected 704 events using a threshold of 12 times the median absolute deviation (MAD), which is ~25 times more than listed in the ANSS catalog. The aftershock rate generally decayed with time as predicted by the Omori's law. A statistically significant increase of seismicity rate is found when hurricane Irene passed by the epicentral region. A possible explanation is that the atmosphere pressure drop unloaded the surface, which brought the reverse faults closer to failure. However, we also identified similar fluctuations of seismicity rate changes at other times. Hence, it is still

  11. Application of Subspace Detection to the 6 November 2011 M5.6 Prague, Oklahoma Aftershock Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, N. D.; Benz, H.; Johnson, C. E.; Aster, R. C.; McNamara, D. E.

    2015-12-01

    Subspace detection is a powerful tool for the identification of small seismic events. Subspace detectors improve upon single-event matched filtering techniques by using multiple orthogonal waveform templates whose linear combinations characterize a range of observed signals from previously identified earthquakes. Subspace detectors running on multiple stations can significantly increasing the number of locatable events, lowering the catalog's magnitude of completeness and thus providing extraordinary detail on the kinematics of the aftershock process. The 6 November 2011 M5.6 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma is the largest earthquake instrumentally recorded in Oklahoma history and the largest earthquake resultant from deep wastewater injection. A M4.8 foreshock on 5 November 2011 and the M5.6 mainshock triggered tens of thousands of detectable aftershocks along a 20 km splay of the Wilzetta Fault Zone known as the Meeker-Prague fault. In response to this unprecedented earthquake, 21 temporary seismic stations were deployed surrounding the seismic activity. We utilized a catalog of 767 previously located aftershocks to construct subspace detectors for the 21 temporary and 10 closest permanent seismic stations. Subspace detection identified more than 500,000 new arrival-time observations, which associated into more than 20,000 locatable earthquakes. The associated earthquakes were relocated using the Bayesloc multiple-event locator, resulting in ~7,000 earthquakes with hypocentral uncertainties of less than 500 m. The relocated seismicity provides unique insight into the spatio-temporal evolution of the aftershock sequence along the Wilzetta Fault Zone and its associated structures. We find that the crystalline basement and overlying sedimentary Arbuckle formation accommodate the majority of aftershocks. While we observe aftershocks along the entire 20 km length of the Meeker-Prague fault, the vast majority of earthquakes were confined to a 9 km wide by 9 km deep

  12. New insights on co- and post-seismic deformation and slip behavior associated with the Mw7.8 2016 Pedernales, Ecuador earthquake and its aftershock sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soto-Cordero, L.; Nealy, J. L.; Meltzer, A.; Agurto-Detzel, H.; Alvarado, A. P.; Beck, S. L.; Benz, H.; Bergman, E. A.; Charvis, P.; Font, Y.; Hayes, G. P.; Hernandez, S.; Hoskins, M.; Leon Rios, S.; Lynner, C.; Regnier, M. M.; Rietbrock, A.; Stachnik, J. C.; Yeck, W. L.

    2017-12-01

    On April 16, 2016, a Mw7.8 earthquake, associated with oblique subduction of the Nazca Plate under South America, ruptured a segment approximately 130x100km in the region north of the intersection of the Carnegie ridge with the Ecuador subduction zone. The rupture coincides with the rupture area of the Mw7.8 1942 earthquake. To characterize the aftershock sequence, we analyze seismic data recorded by 30 stations from April 17, 2016 to May 8, 2017; 11 stations belong to Ecuador's national network and 19 are part of a PASSCAL temporary deployment. We apply a kurtosis detector to obtain automatic P- and S-wave picks. Earthquake locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors are obtained using the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) processing system. We also determine calibrated relocations using the Hypocentroidal Decomposition approach for a subset of events for which we combine phase readings from local and temporary PASSCAL stations with regional and teleseismic phase readings from the NEIC. In contrast with other earthquake relocation approaches, this method evaluates absolute location uncertainties for each event in the cluster, which allows us to more confidently assess the relationships between mainshock slip and aftershock activity. We find the aftershock sequence is characterized by a series of event clusters that predominantly surround the main rupture patches. However, the aftershocks extend beyond the mainshock rupture area, covering a region approximately 250x100km. Aftershocks north of the 2016 rupture fall in the rupture area of the Mw7.7 1958 earthquake. The southernmost region of elevated seismicity occurs south of a region of low coupling where the Carnegie ridge meets the subduction zone. The characterization of this sequence allows a detailed spatial and temporal analysis of the rupture processes, stress patterns and slip behavior during this earthquake sequence in Ecuador subduction zone.

  13. Aftershocks of microearthquakes as probes of the mechanics of rupture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubin, Allan M.

    2002-07-01

    Using a waveform cross-correlation technique, Rubin and Gillard [2000] obtained precise relative locations for 4300 0.5 < M < 3.5 earthquakes occurring along 50 km of the San Andreas fault. This study adds to that another 5000 earthquakes distributed along 10 km of the San Andreas fault and 20 km of the Calaveras fault. Errors in relative location are typically tens of meters for earthquakes separated by hundreds of meters and, after correcting for time-dependent station delays, meters for earthquakes separated by tens of meters. Along both faults, the minimum separation between consecutive earthquakes scales with magnitude in a manner consistent with a magnitude-independent stress drop. By treating each earthquake on the San Andreas as if it were a main shock, scaling the distances to all subsequent earthquakes by main shock size, and stacking the results, a ``composite'' aftershock sequence is produced that has many of the characteristics predicted by rate-and-state friction models. Projected onto the fault surface, these aftershocks outline a quasi-elliptical, roughly 4-MPa stress drop main shock elongate in the slip-parallel direction by ~40%. At the ends of the major axes of this ellipse over twice as many aftershocks occur to the NW than to the SE, an asymmetry attributed to the contrast in material properties across the fault. Unlike the San Andreas, the Calaveras fault exhibits little P wave velocity contrast and no discernible aftershock asymmetry; however, the earliest part of the aftershock sequence on the Calaveras might be truncated by the ~30-s ``blind'' time of the network following a triggering event.

  14. Detailed Spatio-temporal Distribution of the 16 April 2016 M7.8 Pedernales Ecuador Aftershock Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernandez, S.; Font, Y.; Rolandone, F.; Nocquet, J. M.; Beck, S. L.; Meltzer, A.; Gabriela, P.; Plain, M.; Ruiz, M. C.; Alvarado, A. P.

    2016-12-01

    On 16 April 2016, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake occurred along the Nazca-South America plate interface near Pedernales, Ecuador. In this study, we present a detailed characterization of the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks and how they relate to the inter-, co-, and post-seismic deformation patterns. Aside from a magnitude 5.1 earthquake 10 minutes prior to the main event, no extended foreshock sequence was observed in the vicinity of the mainshock hypocenter. However, an analysis of the frequency-magnitude distributions of the seismicity near Pedernales in the years preceding the mainshock indicates a significant decrease in the b-value leading up to the mainshock origin time. This same area is also the location of elevated (>0.7) interseismic coupling as gleaned from GPS. Various coseismic slip models also seem to correlate quite well with plate interface coupling. Temporally, the aftershocks nearest to the areas of peak coseismic displacement show a power law decay with a p-value of 0.5. Within days of the mainshock, a southwesterly migration of aftershocks became apparent and likely represents a seismic manifestation of a triggered slow slip event. To date, at least 10 events of magnitude greater than M6 have been triggered. Curiously, 8 of these 10 events have occurred in the form of doublets, with the largest pair (M6.7,M6.9) occurring one month after the mainshock and separated by 9 hours. After several months of quiescence, seismicity north of the Atacames Promontory has begun to show elevated rate increases, especially near the city of Esmeraldas. This seismicity is likely related to stress changes imparted by the mainshock, but their delayed nature and likely location in the overriding plate requires further analysis to establish a definitive link.

  15. Distribution of the largest aftershocks in branching models of triggered seismicity: theory of the universal Båth law.

    PubMed

    Saichev, A; Sornette, D

    2005-05-01

    Using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to calculate exactly the average difference between the magnitude of a mainshock and the magnitude of its largest aftershock over all generations. This average magnitude difference is found empirically to be independent of the mainshock magnitude and equal to 1.2, a universal behavior known as Båth's law. Our theory shows that Båth's law holds only sufficiently close to the critical regime of the ETAS branching process. Allowing for error bars +/- 0.1 for Båth's constant value around 1.2, our exact analytical treatment of Båth's law provides new constraints on the productivity exponent alpha and the branching ratio n: 0.9 approximately < alpha < or =1. We propose a method for measuring alpha based on the predicted renormalization of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of the magnitudes of the largest aftershock. We also introduce the "second Båth law for foreshocks:" the probability that a main earthquake turns out to be the foreshock does not depend on its magnitude rho.

  16. Foreshock and aftershocks in simple earthquake models.

    PubMed

    Kazemian, J; Tiampo, K F; Klein, W; Dominguez, R

    2015-02-27

    Many models of earthquake faults have been introduced that connect Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling to triggering processes. However, natural earthquake fault systems are composed of a variety of different geometries and materials and the associated heterogeneity in physical properties can cause a variety of spatial and temporal behaviors. This raises the question of how the triggering process and the structure interact to produce the observed phenomena. Here we present a simple earthquake fault model based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen and Rundle-Jackson-Brown cellular automata models with long-range interactions that incorporates a fixed percentage of stronger sites, or asperity cells, into the lattice. These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in temporal clustering in the model that mimics that seen in natural fault systems along with GR scaling. In addition, we observe sequences of activity that start with a gradually accelerating number of larger events (foreshocks) prior to a main shock that is followed by a tail of decreasing activity (aftershocks). This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism.

  17. Optimal Scaling of Aftershock Zones using Ground Motion Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, John Max; Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.

    2018-02-01

    The spatial distribution of aftershocks following major earthquakes has received significant attention due to the shaking hazard these events pose for structures and populations in the affected region. Forecasting the spatial distribution of aftershock events is an important part of the estimation of future seismic hazard. A simple spatial shape for the zone of activity has often been assumed in the form of an ellipse having semimajor axis to semiminor axis ratio of 2.0. However, since an important application of these calculations is the estimation of ground shaking hazard, an effective criterion for forecasting future aftershock impacts is to use ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in addition to the more usual approach of using epicentral or hypocentral locations. Based on these ideas, we present an aftershock model that uses self-similarity and scaling relations to constrain parameters as an option for such hazard assessment. We fit the spatial aspect ratio to previous earthquake sequences in the studied regions, and demonstrate the effect of the fitting on the likelihood of post-disaster ground motion forecasts for eighteen recent large earthquakes. We find that the forecasts in most geographic regions studied benefit from this optimization technique, while some are better suited to the use of the a priori aspect ratio.

  18. Dynamic Aftershock Triggering Correlated with Cyclic Loading in the Slip Direction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardebeck, J.

    2014-12-01

    Dynamic stress changes have been shown to contribute to aftershock triggering, but the physical triggering mechanisms are not fully understood. Some proposed mechanisms are based on dynamic stress loading of the target fault in a direction that encourages earthquake slip (e.g. dynamic Coulomb stress triggering), while other mechanisms are based on fault weakening due to shaking. If dynamic stress loading in the fault slip direction plays a role in aftershock triggering, we would expect to see a relationship between the dynamic stress orientations and the aftershock focal mechanisms. Alternatively, if dynamic stress change triggering functions only through a fault weakening mechanism that is independent of the slip direction of the target fault, no such relationship is expected. I study aftershock sequences of 4 M≥6.7 mainshocks in southern California, and find a small but significant relationship between modeled dynamic stress direction and aftershock focal mechanisms. The mainshock dynamic stress changes have two observed impacts: changing the focal mechanisms in a given location to favor those aligned with the dynamic stress change, and changing the spatial distribution of seismicity to favor locations where the dynamic stress change aligns with the background stress. The aftershock focal mechanisms are significantly more aligned with the dynamic stress changes than the preshock mechanisms for only the first 0.5-1 year following most mainshocks, although for at least 10 years following Hector Mine. Dynamic stress effects on focal mechanisms are best observed at long periods (30-60 sec). Dynamic stress effects are only observed when using metrics based on repeated stress cycling in the same direction, for example considering the dominant stress orientation over the full time series, and not for the peak dynamic stress. These results imply that dynamic aftershock triggering operates at least in part through cyclic loading in the direction of fault slip, although

  19. Spatial stress variations in the aftershock sequence following the 2008 M6 earthquake doublet in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hensch, M.; Árnadóttir, Th.; Lund, B.; Brandsdóttir, B.

    2012-04-01

    The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) is an approximately 80 km wide E-W transform zone, bridging the offset between the Eastern Volcanic Zone and the Hengill triple junction to the west. The plate motion is accommodated in the brittle crust by faulting on many N-S trending right-lateral strike-slip faults of 2-5 km separation. Major sequences of large earthquakes (M>6) has occurred repeatedly in the SISZ since the settlement in Iceland more than thousand years ago. On 29th May 2008, two M6 earthquakes hit the western part of the SISZ on two adjacent N-S faults within a few seconds. The intense aftershock sequence was recorded by the permanent Icelandic SIL network and a promptly installed temporary network of 11 portable seismometers in the source region. The network located thousands of aftershocks during the following days, illuminating a 12-17 km long region along both major fault ruptures as well as several smaller parallel faults along a diffuse E-W trending region west of the mainshock area without any preceding main rupture. This episode is suggested to be the continuation of an earthquake sequence which started with two M6.5 and several M5-6 events in June 2000. The time delay between the 2000 and 2008 events could be due to an inflation episode in Hengill during 1993-1998, that potentially locked N-S strike slip faults in the western part of the SISZ. Around 300 focal solutions for aftershocks have been derived by analyzing P-wave polarities, showing predominantly strike-slip movements with occasional normal faulting components (unstable P-axis direction), which suggests an extensional stress regime as their driving force. A subsequent stress inversion of four different aftershock clusters reveals slight variations of the directions of the average σ3 axes. While for both southern clusters, including the E-W cluster, the σ3 axes are rather elongated perpendicular to the overall plate spreading axis, they are more northerly trending for shallower clusters

  20. Aftershocks of the june 20, 1978, Greece earthquake: A multimode faulting sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carver, D.; Bollinger, G.A.

    1981-01-01

    A 10-station portable seismograph network was deployed in northern Greece to study aftershocks of the magnitude (mb) 6.4 earthquake of June 20, 1978. The main shock occurred (in a graben) about 25 km northeast of the city of Thessaloniki and caused an east-west zone of surface rupturing 14 km long that splayed to 7 km wide at the west end. The hypocenters for 116 aftershocks in the magnitude range from 2.5 to 4.5 were determined. The epicenters for these events cover an area 30 km (east-west) by 18 km (north-south), and focal depths ranges from 4 to 12 km. Most of the aftershocks in the east half of the aftershock zone are north of the surface rupture and north of the graben. Those in the west half are located within the boundaries of the graben. Composite focalmechanism solutions for selected aftershocks indicate reactivation of geologically mapped normal faults in the area. Also, strike-slip and dip-slip faults that splay off the western end of the zone of surface ruptures may have been activated. The epicenters for four large (M ??? 4.8) foreshocks and the main shock were relocated using the method of joint epicenter determination. Collectively, those five epicenters form an arcuate pattern convex southward, that is north of and 5 km distant from the surface rupturing. The 5-km separation, along with a focal depth of 8 km (average aftershock depth) or 16 km (NEIS main-shock depth), implies that the fault plane dips northward 58?? or 73??, respectively. A preferred nodal-plane dip of 36?? was determined by B.C. Papazachos and his colleagues in 1979 from a focal-mechanism solution for the main shock. If this dip is valid for the causal fault and that fault projects to the zone of surface rupturing, a decrease of dip with depth is required. ?? 1981.

  1. Foreshocks and delayed triggering of the 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa earthquake and dynamic reinvigoration of its aftershock sequence by the MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warren-Smith, Emily; Fry, Bill; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Chamberlain, Calum J.

    2018-01-01

    We analyze the preparatory period of the September 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa foreshock-mainshock sequence in the Northern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, and subsequent reinvigoration of Te Araroa aftershocks driven by a large distant earthquake (the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake). By adopting a matched-filter detection workflow using 582 well-defined template events, we generate an improved foreshock and aftershock catalog for the Te Araroa sequence (>8,000 earthquakes over 66 d). Templates characteristic of the MW7.1 sequence (including the mainshock template) detect several highly correlating events (ML2.5-3.5) starting 12 min after a MW5.7 foreshock. These pre-cursory events occurred within ∼1 km of the mainshock and migrate bilaterally, suggesting precursory slip was triggered by the foreshock on the MW7.1 fault patch prior to mainshock failure. We extend our matched-filter routine to examine the interactions between high dynamic stresses resulting from passing surface waves of the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, and the evolution of the Te Araroa aftershock sequence. We observe a sudden spike in moment release of the aftershock sequence immediately following peak dynamic Coulomb stresses of 50-150 kPa on the MW7.1 fault plane. The triggered increase in moment release culminated in a MW5.1 event, immediately followed by a ∼3 h temporal stress shadow. Our observations document the preparatory period of a major subduction margin earthquake following a significant foreshock, and quantify dynamic reinvigoration of a distant on-going major aftershock sequence amid a period of temporal clustering of seismic activity in New Zealand.

  2. Systematic deficiency of aftershocks in areas of high coseismic slip for large subduction zone earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Wetzler, Nadav; Lay, Thorne; Brodsky, Emily E.; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2018-01-01

    Fault slip during plate boundary earthquakes releases a portion of the shear stress accumulated due to frictional resistance to relative plate motions. Investigation of 101 large [moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 7] subduction zone plate boundary mainshocks with consistently determined coseismic slip distributions establishes that 15 to 55% of all master event–relocated aftershocks with Mw ≥ 5.2 are located within the slip regions of the mainshock ruptures and few are located in peak slip regions, allowing for uncertainty in the slip models. For the preferred models, cumulative deficiency of aftershocks within the central three-quarters of the scaled slip regions ranges from 15 to 45%, increasing with the total number of observed aftershocks. The spatial gradients of the mainshock coseismic slip concentrate residual shear stress near the slip zone margins and increase stress outside the slip zone, driving both interplate and intraplate aftershock occurrence near the periphery of the mainshock slip. The shear stress reduction in large-slip regions during the mainshock is generally sufficient to preclude further significant rupture during the aftershock sequence, consistent with large-slip areas relocking and not rupturing again for a substantial time. PMID:29487902

  3. Complex rupture process of the Mw 7.8, 2016, Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand, and its aftershock sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cesca, S.; Zhang, Y.; Mouslopoulou, V.; Wang, R.; Saul, J.; Savage, M.; Heimann, S.; Kufner, S.-K.; Oncken, O.; Dahm, T.

    2017-11-01

    The M7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake that struck the northeastern South Island, New Zealand, on November 14, 2016 (local time), is one of the largest ever instrumentally recorded earthquakes in New Zealand. It occurred at the southern termination of the Hikurangi subduction margin, where the subducting Pacific Plate transitions into the dextral Alpine transform fault. The earthquake produced significant distributed uplift along the north-eastern part of the South Island, reaching a peak amplitude of ∼8 m, which was accompanied by large (≥10 m) horizontal coseismic displacements at the ground surface along discrete active faults. The seismic waveforms' expression of the main shock indicate a complex rupture process. Early automated centroid moment tensor solutions indicated a strong non-double-couple term, which supports a complex rupture involving multiple faults. The hypocentral distribution of aftershocks, which appears diffuse over a broad region, clusters spatially along lineaments with different orientations. A key question of global interest is to shed light on the mechanism with which such a complex rupture occurred, and whether the underlying plate-interface was involved in the rupture. The consequences for seismic hazard of such a distributed, shallow faulting is important to be assessed. We perform a broad seismological analysis, combining regional and teleseismic seismograms, GPS and InSAR, to determine the rupture process of the main shock and moment tensors of 118 aftershocks down to Mw 4.2. The joint interpretation of the main rupture and aftershock sequence allow reconstruction of the geometry, and suggests sequential activation and slip distribution on at least three major active fault domains. We find that the rupture nucleated as a weak strike-slip event along the Humps Fault, which progressively propagated northward onto a shallow reverse fault, where most of the seismic moment was released, before it triggered slip on a second set of strike

  4. Larger aftershocks happen farther away: nonseparability of magnitude and spatial distributions of aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Shaw, Bruce E.

    2015-01-01

    Aftershocks may be driven by stress concentrations left by the main shock rupture or by elastic stress transfer to adjacent fault sections or strands. Aftershocks that occur within the initial rupture may be limited in size, because the scale of the stress concentrations should be smaller than the primary rupture itself. On the other hand, aftershocks that occur on adjacent fault segments outside the primary rupture may have no such size limitation. Here we use high-precision double-difference relocated earthquake catalogs to demonstrate that larger aftershocks occur farther away than smaller aftershocks, when measured from the centroid of early aftershock activity—a proxy for the initial rupture. Aftershocks as large as or larger than the initiating event nucleate almost exclusively in the outer regions of the aftershock zone. This observation is interpreted as a signature of elastic rebound in the earthquake catalog and can be used to improve forecasting of large aftershocks.

  5. Shallow megathrust earthquake ruptures betrayed by their outer-trench aftershocks signature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sladen, Anthony; Trevisan, Jenny

    2018-02-01

    For some megathrust earthquakes, the rupture extends to the solid Earth's surface, at the ocean floor. This unexpected behaviour holds strong implications for the tsunami potential of subduction zones and for the physical conditions governing earthquakes, but such ruptures occur in underwater areas which are hard to observe, even with current instrumentation and imaging techniques. Here, we evidence that aftershocks occurring ocean-ward from the trench are conditioned by near-surface rupture of the megathrust fault. Comparison to well constrained earthquake slip models further reveals that for each event the number of aftershocks is proportional to the amount of shallow slip, a link likely related to static stress transfer. Hence, the spatial distribution of these specific aftershock sequences could provide independent constrains on the coseismic shallow slip of future events. It also offers the prospect to be able to reassess the rupture of many large subduction earthquakes back to the beginning of the instrumental era.

  6. The May 29 2008 earthquake aftershock sequence within the South Iceland Seismic Zone: Fault locations and source parameters of aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandsdottir, B.; Parsons, M.; White, R. S.; Gudmundsson, O.; Drew, J.

    2010-12-01

    The mid-Atlantic plate boundary breaks up into a series of segments across Iceland. The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) is a complex transform zone where left-lateral E-W shear between the Reykjanes Peninsula Rift Zone and the Eastern Volcanic Zone is accommodated by bookshelf faulting along N-S lateral strike-slip faults. The SISZ is also a transient feature, migrating sideways in response to the southward propagation of the Eastern Volcanic Zone. Sequences of large earthquakes (M > 6) lasting from days to years and affecting most of the seismic zone have occurred repeatedly in historical time (last 1100 years), separated by intervals of relative quiescence lasting decades to more than a century. On May 29 2008, a Mw 6.1 earthquake struck the western part of the South Iceland Seismic Zone, followed within seconds by a slightly smaller event on a second fault ~5 km further west. Aftershocks, detected by a temporal array of 11 seismometers and three permanent Icelandic Meteorological Office stations were located using an automated Coalescence Microseismic Mapping technique. The epicenters delineate two major and several smaller N-S faults as well as an E-W zone of activity stretching further west into the Reykjanes Peninsula Rift Zone. Fault plane solutions show both right lateral and oblique strike slip mechanisms along the two major N-S faults. The aftershocks deepen from 3-5 km in the north to 8-9 km in the south, suggesting that the main faults dip southwards. The faulting is interpreted to be driven by the local stress due to transform motion between two parallel segments of the divergent plate boundary crossing Iceland.

  7. A Fluid-driven Earthquake Cycle, Omori's Law, and Fluid-driven Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, S. A.

    2015-12-01

    Few models exist that predict the Omori's Law of aftershock rate decay, with rate-state friction the only physically-based model. ETAS is a probabilistic model of cascading failures, and is sometimes used to infer rate-state frictional properties. However, the (perhaps dominant) role of fluids in the earthquake process is being increasingly realised, so a fluid-based physical model for Omori's Law should be available. In this talk, I present an hypothesis for a fluid-driven earthquake cycle where dehydration and decarbonization at depth provides continuous sources of buoyant high pressure fluids that must eventually make their way back to the surface. The natural pathway for fluid escape is along plate boundaries, where in the ductile regime high pressure fluids likely play an integral role in episodic tremor and slow slip earthquakes. At shallower levels, high pressure fluids pool at the base of seismogenic zones, with the reservoir expanding in scale through the earthquake cycle. Late in the cycle, these fluids can invade and degrade the strength of the brittle crust and contribute to earthquake nucleation. The mainshock opens permeable networks that provide escape pathways for high pressure fluids and generate aftershocks along these flow paths, while creating new pathways by the aftershocks themselves. Thermally activated precipitation then seals up these pathways, returning the system to a low-permeability environment and effective seal during the subsequent tectonic stress buildup. I find that the multiplicative effect of an exponential dependence of permeability on the effective normal stress coupled with an Arrhenius-type, thermally activated exponential reduction in permeability results in Omori's Law. I simulate this scenario using a very simple model that combines non-linear diffusion and a step-wise increase in permeability when a Mohr Coulomb failure condition is met, and allow permeability to decrease as an exponential function in time. I show very

  8. The 20 April 2013 Lushan, Sichuan, mainshock, and its aftershock sequence: tectonic implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Jianshe; Zhang, Guangwei; Xie, Furen

    2014-02-01

    Using the double-difference relocation algorithm, we relocated the 20 April 2013 Lushan, Sichuan, earthquake ( M S 7.0), and its 4,567 aftershocks recorded during the period between 20 April and May 3, 2013. Our results showed that most aftershocks are relocated between 10 and 20 km depths, but some large aftershocks were relocated around 30 km depth and small events extended upward near the surface. Vertical cross sections illustrate a shovel-shaped fault plane with a variable dip angle from the southwest to northeast along the fault. Furthermore, the dip angle of the fault plane is smaller around the mainshock than that in the surrounding areas along the fault. These results suggest that it may be easy to generate the strong earthquake in the place having a small dip angle of the fault, which is somewhat similar to the genesis of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The Lushan mainshock is underlain by the seismically anomalous layers with low-VP, low-VS, and high-Poisson's ratio anomalies, possibly suggesting that the fluid-filled fractured rock matrices might significantly reduce the effective normal stress on the fault plane to bring the brittle failure. The seismic gap between Lushan and Wenchuan aftershocks is suspected to be vulnerable to future seismic risks at greater depths, if any.

  9. The Use of Explosion Aftershock Probabilities for Planning and Deployment of Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System for an On-site Inspection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Labak, P.; Ford, S. R.; Sweeney, J. J.; Smith, A. T.; Spivak, A.

    2011-12-01

    One of four elements of CTBT verification regime is On-site inspection (OSI). Since the sole purpose of an OSI shall be to clarify whether a nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion has been carried out, inspection activities can be conducted and techniques used in order to collect facts to support findings provided in inspection reports. Passive seismological monitoring, realized by the seismic aftershock monitoring (SAMS) is one of the treaty allowed techniques during an OSI. Effective planning and deployment of SAMS during the early stages of an OSI is required due to the nature of possible events recorded and due to the treaty related constrains on size of inspection area, size of inspection team and length of an inspection. A method, which may help in planning the SAMS deployment is presented. An estimate of aftershock activity due to a theoretical underground nuclear explosion is produced using a simple aftershock rate model (Ford and Walter, 2010). The model is developed with data from the Nevada Test Site and Semipalatinsk Test Site, which we take to represent soft- and hard-rock testing environments, respectively. Estimates of expected magnitude and number of aftershocks are calculated using the models for different testing and inspection scenarios. These estimates can help to plan the SAMS deployment for an OSI by giving a probabilistic assessment of potential aftershocks in the Inspection Area (IA). The aftershock assessment combined with an estimate of the background seismicity in the IA and an empirically-derived map of threshold magnitude for the SAMS network could aid the OSI team in reporting. We tested the hard-rock model to a scenario similar to the 2008 Integrated Field Exercise 2008 deployment in Kazakhstan and produce an estimate of possible recorded aftershock activity.

  10. Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence of the 6 July 2017 M5.8 Lincoln, Montana Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, N. D.; Stickney, M.; Aster, R. C.; Yeck, W.; Martens, H. R.; Benz, H.

    2017-12-01

    On 6 July 2017, a Mw 5.8 earthquake occurred 11 km southeast of Lincoln, Montana. The event was widely-felt from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (750 km north), Seattle, Washington (800 km west), the Idaho/Utah and Idaho/Nevada borders (550 km south), and Rapid City, South Dakota (750 km east). This is the largest earthquake to occur in the state since the 1959 M 7.3 Hebgen Lake event 250 km to the southeast. In the three weeks following the 6 July 2017 Mw 5.8 main shock, the U.S. Geological Survey and Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology located more than 300 aftershocks. Preliminary observations show most of these aftershocks form a short NNE zone that suggests that the main shock may have slipped on a NNE left-lateral fault. A smaller number of aftershocks extend along a longer WNW-trending zone. These faults are part of the Lewis and Clark line, a prominent zone of Middle Proterozoic to Holocene age strike-slip, dip slip, and oblique slip faulting trending 400 km east-southeast from northern Idaho to east of Helena, Montana, and terminating southeast of this earthquake. We use identified aftershock waveforms as templates to examine the data from 1 June 2017 through 27 July 2017 with cross-correlation techniques on nearby permanent and temporary seismic stations deployed shortly after the mainshock to identify foreshocks and additional small aftershocks. Locating these events allows us to study subsurface geology, map fault structures, and provide insight on the spatial and temporal evolution of the earthquake sequence, which may continue to produce aftershocks for years. Other notable earthquakes in the region include a damaging M 6.6 earthquake 100 km to the south in June 1925, M 6.2 and M 6.0 earthquakes near Helena, Montana in October 1935 that caused significant damage and four fatalities, and a M 5.6 earthquake 170 km to the south in July 2005 that caused minor damage in Dillon and the surrounding region. We hope this work not only allows us to map the involved

  11. Stress history controls the spatial pattern of aftershocks: case studies from strike-slip earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Utkucu, Murat; Durmuş, Hatice; Nalbant, Süleyman

    2017-09-01

    Earthquake ruptures perturb stress within the surrounding crustal volume and as it is widely accepted now these stress perturbations strongly correlates with the following seismicity. Here we have documented five cases of the mainshock-aftershock sequences generated by the strike-slip faults from different tectonic environments of world in order to demonstrate that the stress changes resulting from large preceding earthquakes decades before effect spatial distribution of the aftershocks of the current mainshocks. The studied mainshock-aftershock sequences are the 15 October 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake ( Mw = 6.4) in southern California, the 27 November 1979 Khuli-Boniabad ( Mw = 7.1), the 10 May 1997 Qa'enat ( Mw = 7.2) and the 31 March 2006 Silakhor ( Mw = 6.1) earthquakes in Iran and the 13 March 1992 Erzincan earthquake ( Mw = 6.7) in Turkey. In the literature, we have been able to find only these mainshocks that are mainly characterized by dense and strong aftershock activities along and beyond the one end of their ruptures while rare aftershock occurrences with relatively lower magnitude reported for the other end of their ruptures. It is shown that the stress changes resulted from earlier mainshock(s) that are close in both time and space might be the reason behind the observed aftershock patterns. The largest aftershocks of the mainshocks studied tend to occur inside the stress-increased lobes that were also stressed by the background earthquakes and not to occur inside the stress-increased lobes that fall into the stress shadow of the background earthquakes. We suggest that the stress shadows of the previous mainshocks may persist in the crust for decades to suppress aftershock distribution of the current mainshocks. Considering active researches about use of the Coulomb stress change maps as a practical tool to forecast spatial distribution of the upcoming aftershocks for earthquake risk mitigation purposes in near-real time, it is further suggested

  12. Aftershock communication during the Canterbury Earthquakes, New Zealand: implications for response and recovery in the built environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julia Becker,; Wein, Anne; Sally Potter,; Emma Doyle,; Ratliff, Jamie L.

    2015-01-01

    On 4 September 2010, a Mw7.1 earthquake occurred in Canterbury, New Zealand. Following the initial earthquake, an aftershock sequence was initiated, with the most significant aftershock being a Mw6.3 earthquake occurring on 22 February 2011. This aftershock caused severe damage to the city of Christchurch and building failures that killed 185 people. During the aftershock sequence it became evident that effective communication of aftershock information (e.g., history and forecasts) was imperative to assist with decision making during the response and recovery phases of the disaster, as well as preparedness for future aftershock events. As a consequence, a joint JCDR-USGS research project was initiated to investigate: • How aftershock information was communicated to organisations and to the public; • How people interpreted that information; • What people did in response to receiving that information; • What information people did and did not need; and • What decision-making challenges were encountered relating to aftershocks. Research was conducted by undertaking focus group meetings and interviews with a range of information providers and users, including scientists and science advisors, emergency managers and responders, engineers, communication officers, businesses, critical infrastructure operators, elected officials, and the public. The interviews and focus group meetings were recorded and transcribed, and key themes were identified. This paper focuses on the aftershock information needs for decision-making about the built environment post-earthquake, including those involved in response (e.g., for building assessment and management), recovery/reduction (e.g., the development of new building standards), and readiness (e.g. between aftershocks). The research has found that the communication of aftershock information varies with time, is contextual, and is affected by interactions among roles, by other information, and by decision objectives. A number

  13. Aftershock Sequences and Seismic-Like Organization of Acoustic Events Produced by a Single Propagating Crack

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alizee, D.; Bonamy, D.

    2017-12-01

    In inhomogeneous brittle solids like rocks, concrete or ceramics, one usually distinguish nominally brittle fracture, driven by the propagation of a single crack from quasibrittle one, resulting from the accumulation of many microcracks. The latter goes along with intermittent sharp noise, as e.g. revealed by the acoustic emission observed in lab scale compressive fracture experiments or at geophysical scale in the seismic activity. In both cases, statistical analyses have revealed a complex time-energy organization into aftershock sequences obeying a range of robust empirical scaling laws (the Omori-Utsu, productivity and Bath's law) that help carry out seismic hazard analysis and damage mitigation. These laws are usually conjectured to emerge from the collective dynamics of microcrack nucleation. In the experiments presented at AGU, we will show that such a statistical organization is not specific to the quasi-brittle multicracking situations, but also rules the acoustic events produced by a single crack slowly driven in an artificial rock made of sintered polymer beads. This simpler situation has advantageous properties (statistical stationarity in particular) permitting us to uncover the origins of these seismic laws: Both productivity law and Bath's law result from the scale free statistics for event energy and Omori-Utsu law results from the scale-free statistics of inter-event time. This yields predictions on how the associated parameters are related, which were analytically derived. Surprisingly, the so-obtained relations are also compatible with observations on lab scale compressive fracture experiments, suggesting that, in these complex multicracking situations also, the organization into aftershock sequences and associated seismic laws are also ruled by the propagation of individual microcrack fronts, and not by the collective, stress-mediated, microcrack nucleation. Conversely, the relations are not fulfilled in seismology signals, suggesting that

  14. Decay of aftershock density with distance indicates triggering by dynamic stress

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Felzer, K.R.; Brodsky, E.E.

    2006-01-01

    The majority of earthquakes are aftershocks, yet aftershock physics is not well understood. Many studies suggest that static stress changes trigger aftershocks, but recent work suggests that shaking (dynamic stresses) may also play a role. Here we measure the decay of aftershocks as a function of distance from magnitude 2-6 mainshocks in order to clarify the aftershock triggering process. We find that for short times after the mainshock, when low background seismicity rates allow for good aftershock detection, the decay is well fitted by a single inverse power law over distances of 0.2-50 km. The consistency of the trend indicates that the same triggering mechanism is working over the entire range. As static stress changes at the more distant aftershocks are negligible, this suggests that dynamic stresses may be triggering all of these aftershocks. We infer that the observed aftershock density is consistent with the probability of triggering aftershocks being nearly proportional to seismic wave amplitude. The data are not fitted well by models that combine static stress change with the evolution of frictionally locked faults. ?? 2006 Nature Publishing Group.

  15. Aftershock distribution as a constraint on the geodetic model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bennington, Ninfa; Thurber, Clifford; Feigl, Kurt; ,

    2011-01-01

    Several studies of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have linked the spatial distribution of the event’s aftershocks to the mainshock slip distribution on the fault. Using geodetic data, we find a model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake with the constraint that the edges of coseismic slip patches align with aftershocks. The constraint is applied by encouraging the curvature of coseismic slip in each model cell to be equal to the negative of the curvature of seismicity density. The large patch of peak slip about 15 km northwest of the 2004 hypocenter found in the curvature-constrained model is in good agreement in location and amplitude with previous geodetic studies and the majority of strong motion studies. The curvature-constrained solution shows slip primarily between aftershock “streaks” with the continuation of moderate levels of slip to the southeast. These observations are in good agreement with strong motion studies, but inconsistent with the majority of published geodetic slip models. Southeast of the 2004 hypocenter, a patch of peak slip observed in strong motion studies is absent from our curvature-constrained model, but the available GPS data do not resolve slip in this region. We conclude that the geodetic slip model constrained by the aftershock distribution fits the geodetic data quite well and that inconsistencies between models derived from seismic and geodetic data can be attributed largely to resolution issues.

  16. Short-term forecasting of aftershock sequences, microseismicity and swarms inside the Corinth Gulf continental rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segou, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Corinth Gulf (Central Greece) is the fastest continental rift in the world with extension rates 11-15 mm/yr with diverse seismic deformation including earthquakes with M greater than 6.0, several periods of increased microseismic activity, usually lasting few months and possibly related with fluid diffusion, and swarm episodes lasting few days. In this study I perform a retrospective forecast experiment between 1995-2012, focusing on the comparison between physics-based and statistical models for short term time classes. Even though Corinth gulf has been studied extensively in the past there is still today a debate whether earthquake activity is related with the existence of either a shallow dipping structure or steeply dipping normal faults. In the light of the above statement, two CRS realization are based on resolving Coulomb stress changes on specified receiver faults, expressing the aforementioned structural models, whereas the third CRS model uses optimally-oriented for failure planes. The CRS implementation accounts for stress changes following all major ruptures with M greater than 4.5 within the testing phase. I also estimate fault constitutive parameters from modeling the response to major earthquakes at the vicinity of the gulf (Aσ=0.2, stressing rate app. 0.02 bar/yr). The generic ETAS parameters are taken as the maximum likelihood estimates derived from the stochastic declustering of the modern seismicity catalog (1995-2012) with minimum triggering magnitude M2.5. I test whether the generic ETAS can efficiently describe the aftershock spatio-temporal clustering but also the evolution of swarm episodes and microseismicity. For the reason above, I implement likelihood tests to evaluate the forecasts for their spatial consistency and for the total amount of predicted versus observed events with M greater than 3.0 in 10-day time windows during three distinct evaluation phases; the first evaluation phase focuses on the Aigio 1995 aftershock sequence (15

  17. Focal Depth of the WenChuan Earthquake Aftershocks from modeling of Seismic Depth Phases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Y.; Zeng, X.; Chong, J.; Ni, S.; Chen, Y.

    2008-12-01

    After the 05/12/2008 great WenChuan earthquake in Sichuan Province of China, tens of thousands earthquakes occurred with hundreds of them stronger than M4. Those aftershocks provide valuable information about seismotectonics and rupture processes for the mainshock, particularly accurate spatial distribution of aftershocks is very informational for determining rupture fault planes. However focal depth can not be well resolved just with first arrivals recorded by relatively sparse network in Sichuan Province, therefore 3D seismicity distribution is difficult to obtain though horizontal location can be located with accuracy of 5km. Instead local/regional depth phases such as sPmP, sPn, sPL and teleseismic pP,sP are very sensitive to depth, and be readily modeled to determine depth with accuracy of 2km. With reference 1D velocity structure resolved from receiver functions and seismic refraction studies, local/regional depth phases such as sPmP, sPn and sPL are identified by comparing observed waveform with synthetic seismograms by generalized ray theory and reflectivity methods. For teleseismic depth phases well observed for M5.5 and stronger events, we developed an algorithm in inverting both depth and focal mechanism from P and SH waveforms. Also we employed the Cut and Paste (CAP) method developed by Zhao and Helmberger in modeling mechanism and depth with local waveforms, which constrains depth by fitting Pnl waveforms and the relative weight between surface wave and Pnl. After modeling all the depth phases for hundreds of events , we find that most of the M4 earthquakes occur between 2-18km depth, with aftershocks depth ranging 4-12km in the southern half of Longmenshan fault while aftershocks in the northern half featuring large depth range up to 18km. Therefore seismogenic zone in the northern segment is deeper as compared to the southern segment. All the aftershocks occur in upper crust, given that the Moho is deeper than 40km, or even 60km west of the

  18. Aftershock decay, productivity, and stress rates in Hawaii: Indicators of temperature and stress from magma sources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klein, Fred W.; Wright, Tom; Nakata, Jennifer

    2006-01-01

    We examined dozens of aftershock sequences in Hawaii in terms of Gutenberg-Richter and modified Omori law parameters. We studied p, the rate of aftershock decay; Ap, the aftershock productivity, defined as the observed divided by the expected number of aftershocks; and c, the time delay when aftershock rates begin to fall. We found that for earthquakes shallower than 20 km, p values >1.2 are near active magma centers. We associate this high decay rate with higher temperatures and faster stress relaxation near magma reservoirs. Deep earthquakes near Kilauea's inferred magma transport path show a range of p values, suggesting the absence of a large, deep magma reservoir. Aftershock productivity is >4.0 for flank earthquakes known to be triggered by intrusions but is normal (0.25 to 4.0) for isolated main shocks. We infer that continuing, post-main shock stress from the intrusion adds to the main shock's stress step and causes higher Ap. High Ap in other zones suggests less obvious intrusions and pulsing magma pressure near Kilauea's feeding conduit. We calculate stress rates and stress rate changes from pre-main shock and aftershock rates. Stress rate increased after many intrusions but decreased after large M7–8 earthquakes. Stress rates are highest in the seismically active volcano flanks and lowest in areas far from volcanic centers. We found sequences triggered by intrusions tend to have high Ap, high (>0.10 day) c values, a stress rate increase, and sometimes a peak in aftershock rate hours after the main shock. We interpret these values as indicating continuing intrusive stress after the main shock.

  19. Source Process of the Mw 5.0 Au Sable Forks, New York, Earthquake Sequence from Local Aftershock Monitoring Network Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Armbruster, J. G.

    2002-12-01

    On April 20, 2002, a Mw 5 earthquake occurred near the town of Au Sable Forks, northeastern Adirondacks, New York. The quake caused moderate damage (MMI VII) around the epicentral area and it is well recorded by over 50 broadband stations in the distance ranges of 70 to 2000 km in the Eastern North America. Regional broadband waveform data are used to determine source mechanism and focal depth using moment tensor inversion technique. Source mechanism indicates predominantly thrust faulting along 45° dipping fault plane striking due South. The mainshock is followed by at least three strong aftershocks with local magnitude (ML) greater than 3 and about 70 aftershocks are detected and located in the first three months by a 12-station portable seismographic network. The aftershock distribution clearly delineate the mainshock rupture to the westerly dipping fault plane at a depth of 11 to 12 km. Preliminary analysis of the aftershock waveform data indicates that orientation of the P-axis rotated 90° from that of the mainshock, suggesting a complex source process of the earthquake sequence. We achieved an important milestone in monitoring earthquakes and evaluating their hazards through rapid cross-border (Canada-US) and cross-regional (Central US-Northeastern US) collaborative efforts. Hence, staff at Instrument Software Technology, Inc. near the epicentral area joined Lamont-Doherty staff and deployed the first portable station in the epicentral area; CERI dispatched two of their technical staff to the epicentral area with four accelerometers and a broadband seismograph; the IRIS/PASSCAL facility shipped three digital seismographs and ancillary equipment within one day of the request; the POLARIS Consortium, Canada sent a field crew of three with a near real-time, satellite telemetry based earthquake monitoring system. The Polaris station, KSVO, powered by a solar panel and batteries, was already transmitting data to the central Hub in London, Ontario, Canada within

  20. Detection of the Wenchuan aftershock sequence using waveform correlation with a composite regional network

    DOE PAGES

    Slinkard, Megan; Heck, Stephen; Schaff, David; ...

    2016-06-28

    Using template waveforms from aftershocks of the Wenchuan earthquake (12 May 2008, M s 8.0) listed in a global bulletin and continuous data from eight regional stations, we detected more than 6000 additional events in the mainshock source region from 1 May to 12 August 2008. These new detections obey Omori’s law, extend the magnitude of completeness downward by 1.1 magnitude units, and lead to a more than fivefold increase in number of known aftershocks compared with the global bulletins published by the International Data Centre and the Inter national Seismological Centre. Moreover, we detected more M > 2 eventsmore » than were listed by the Sichuan Seismograph Network. Several clusters of these detections were then relocated using the double-difference method, yielding locations that reduced travel-time residuals by a factor of 32 compared with the initial bulletin locations. Finally, our results suggest that using waveform correlation on a few regional stations can find aftershock events very effectively and locate them with precision.« less

  1. Full Aftershock Sequence of the M w 6.9 2003 Boumerdes Earthquake, Algeria: Space-Time Distribution, Local Tomography and Seismotectonic Implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kherroubi, Abdelaziz; Yelles-Chaouche, Abdelkrim; Koulakov, Ivan; Déverchère, Jacques; Beldjoudi, Hamoud; Haned, Abderrahmane; Semmane, Fethi; Aidi, Chafik

    2017-07-01

    We present a detailed analysis of the aftershocks of the May 21, 2003 Boumerdes earthquake ( M w = 6.9) recorded by 35 seismological stations and 2 OBS deployed in the epicentral area. This network recorded the aftershock activity for about 1 year and resulted in locating about 2500 events. The five main aftershocks (4.7 < M <5.8) display thrust faulting consistent with the main shock, except for the second event (M5.8, 29/05/2003) which depicts a strike-slip focal solution at the western tip of the rupture zone. Most aftershocks are clustered near the main rupture plane, in the footwall or at the westernmost tip of the 2003 Boumerdes rupture area. Many aftershocks last over the whole seismic crisis ahead (north) of the main rupture zone, forming a diffuse, low-angle surface within the footwall where the coseismic static stress change is predicted to increase. At the SW tip of the rupture, short-lived clusters locate at intersections of faults near the contact between the inner (Kabylia) and outer (Tell) zones. The tomographic inversion depicts high-velocity P- and S-wave anomalies coinciding with Miocene magmatic intrusive bodies in the upper crust, partially hidden by surrounding basins. The area of the main shock is associated with a large low-velocity body subdivided into sub-domains, including Neogene basins on land and offshore. Our results support a rupture model strongly controlled by geological inhomogeneities and extending as ramp-flat-ramp systems upward, favoring heterogeneous slip and segmentation in the fault plane with strong afterslip toward the surface. The diffuse aftershock activity in the footwall evidences an inherited discontinuity at mid-crustal depth that we interpret as the contact of Kabylian and African (Tethyan) continental crusts that were stacked during the Upper Miocene collision.

  2. Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNamara, D. E.; Yeck, W. L.; Barnhart, W. D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, A.; Hough, S. E.; Benz, H. M.; Earle, P. S.

    2017-09-01

    The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard. Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10-15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

  3. Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, Amod; Hough, S.E.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul

    2017-01-01

    The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard.Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a ~ 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10–15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

  4. Rapid Estimates of Rupture Extent for Large Earthquakes Using Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.; Kremer, M.

    2009-12-01

    The spatial distribution of aftershocks is closely linked to the rupture extent of the mainshock that preceded them and a rapid analysis of aftershock patterns therefore has potential for use in near real-time estimates of earthquake impact. The correlation between aftershocks and slip distribution has frequently been used to estimate the fault dimensions of large historic earthquakes for which no, or insufficient, waveform data is available. With the advent of earthquake inversions that use seismic waveforms and geodetic data to constrain the slip distribution, the study of aftershocks has recently been largely focused on enhancing our understanding of the underlying mechanisms in a broader earthquake mechanics/dynamics framework. However, in a near real-time earthquake monitoring environment, in which aftershocks of large earthquakes are routinely detected and located, these data may also be effective in determining a fast estimate of the mainshock rupture area, which would aid in the rapid assessment of the impact of the earthquake. We have analyzed a considerable number of large recent earthquakes and their aftershock sequences and have developed an effective algorithm that determines the rupture extent of a mainshock from its aftershock distribution, in a fully automatic manner. The algorithm automatically removes outliers by spatial binning, and subsequently determines the best fitting “strike” of the rupture and its length by projecting the aftershock epicenters onto a set of lines that cross the mainshock epicenter with incremental azimuths. For strike-slip or large dip-slip events, for which the surface projection of the rupture is recti-linear, the calculated strike correlates well with the strike of the fault and the corresponding length, determined from the distribution of aftershocks projected onto the line, agrees well with the rupture length. In the case of a smaller dip-slip rupture with an aspect ratio closer to 1, the procedure gives a measure

  5. Aftershocks illuminate the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake causative fault zone and nearby active faults

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Horton, J. Wright; Shah, Anjana K.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Snyder, Stephen L.; Carter, Aina M

    2015-01-01

    Deployment of temporary seismic stations after the 2011 Mineral, Virginia (USA), earthquake produced a well-recorded aftershock sequence. The majority of aftershocks are in a tabular cluster that delineates the previously unknown Quail fault zone. Quail fault zone aftershocks range from ~3 to 8 km in depth and are in a 1-km-thick zone striking ~036° and dipping ~50°SE, consistent with a 028°, 50°SE main-shock nodal plane having mostly reverse slip. This cluster extends ~10 km along strike. The Quail fault zone projects to the surface in gneiss of the Ordovician Chopawamsic Formation just southeast of the Ordovician–Silurian Ellisville Granodiorite pluton tail. The following three clusters of shallow (<3 km) aftershocks illuminate other faults. (1) An elongate cluster of early aftershocks, ~10 km east of the Quail fault zone, extends 8 km from Fredericks Hall, strikes ~035°–039°, and appears to be roughly vertical. The Fredericks Hall fault may be a strand or splay of the older Lakeside fault zone, which to the south spans a width of several kilometers. (2) A cluster of later aftershocks ~3 km northeast of Cuckoo delineates a fault near the eastern contact of the Ordovician Quantico Formation. (3) An elongate cluster of late aftershocks ~1 km northwest of the Quail fault zone aftershock cluster delineates the northwest fault (described herein), which is temporally distinct, dips more steeply, and has a more northeastward strike. Some aftershock-illuminated faults coincide with preexisting units or structures evident from radiometric anomalies, suggesting tectonic inheritance or reactivation.

  6. A study on off-fault aftershock pattern at N-Adria microplate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bressan, Gianni; Barnaba, Carla; Magrin, Andrea; Rossi, Giuliana

    2018-03-01

    The spatial features of the aftershock sequences triggered by three moderate magnitude events with coda-duration magnitudes 4.1, 5.1 and 5.6, which occurred in Northeastern Italy and Western Slovenia, were investigated. The fractal dimension and the orientations of the planar features fitting the hypocentral data have been inferred. The spatial organization is articulated through two temporal phases. The first phase is characterized by the decreasing of the fractal dimension and by vertically oriented planes fitting the hypocentral foci. The second phase is marked by an increase of the fractal dimension and by the activation of different planes, with more widespread orientation. The aftershock temporal distribution is analysed with a model based on a static fatigue process. The process is favoured by the decrease of the overburden pressure, the sharp variations of the mechanical properties of the medium and the unclamping effect resulting from positive normal stress changes caused by the mainshock stress step.

  7. Seismotectonic framework of the 2010 February 27 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayes, Gavin P.; Bergman, Eric; Johnson, Kendra J.; Benz, Harley M.; Brown, Lucy; Meltzer, Anne S.

    2013-01-01

    After the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake, an international collaboration involving teams and instruments from Chile, the US, the UK, France and Germany established the International Maule Aftershock Deployment temporary network over the source region of the event to facilitate detailed, open-access studies of the aftershock sequence. Using data from the first 9-months of this deployment, we have analyzed the detailed spatial distribution of over 2500 well-recorded aftershocks. All earthquakes have been relocated using a hypocentral decomposition algorithm to study the details of and uncertainties in both their relative and absolute locations. We have computed regional moment tensor solutions for the largest of these events to produce a catalogue of 465 mechanisms, and have used all of these data to study the spatial distribution of the aftershock sequence with respect to the Chilean megathrust. We refine models of co-seismic slip distribution of the Maule earthquake, and show how small changes in fault geometries assumed in teleseismic finite fault modelling significantly improve fits to regional GPS data, implying that the accuracy of rapid teleseismic fault models can be substantially improved by consideration of existing fault geometry model databases. We interpret all of these data in an integrated seismotectonic framework for the Maule earthquake rupture and its aftershock sequence, and discuss the relationships between co-seismic rupture and aftershock distributions. While the majority of aftershocks are interplate thrust events located away from regions of maximum co-seismic slip, interesting clusters of aftershocks are identified in the lower plate at both ends of the main shock rupture, implying internal deformation of the slab in response to large slip on the plate boundary interface. We also perform Coulomb stress transfer calculations to compare aftershock locations and mechanisms to static stress changes following the Maule rupture. Without the

  8. Magnitude estimates of two large aftershocks of the 16 December 1811 New Madrid earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Martin, S.

    2002-01-01

    The three principal New Madrid mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for either the mainshocks or the aftershocks, available historical accounts do provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large events. In this article we investigate two of the largest aftershocks: one near dawn following the first mainshock on 16 December 1811, and one near midday on 17 December 1811. We reinterpret original felt reports to obtain a set of 48 and 20 modified Mercalli intensity values of the two aftershocks, respectively. For the dawn aftershock, we infer a Mw of approximately 7.0 based on a comparison of its intensities with those of the smallest New Madrid mainshock. Based on a detailed account that appears to describe near-field ground motions, we further propose a new fault rupture scenario for the dawn aftershock. We suggest that the aftershock had a thrust mechanism and occurred on a southeastern limb of the Reelfoot fault. For the 17 December 1811 aftershock, we infer a Mw of approximately 6.1 ?? 0.2. This value is determined using the method of Bakun et al. (2002), which is based on a new calibration of intensity versus distance for earthquakes in central and eastern North America. The location of this event is not well constrained, but the available accounts suggest an epicenter beyond the southern end of the New Madrid Seismic Zone.

  9. Early warning system for aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Fischer, F.G.; Jensen, E.G.; VanSchaack, J.

    1994-01-01

    A prototype early warning system to provide San Francisco and Oakland, California a few tens-of-seconds warning of incoming strong ground shaking from already-occurred M ≧ 3.7 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was operational on 28 October 1989. The prototype system consisted of four components: ground motion sensors in the epicentral area, a central receiver, a radio repeater, and radio receivers. One of the radio receivers was deployed at the California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) headquarters at the damaged Cypress Street section of the I-880 freeway in Oakland, California on 28 October 1989 and provided about 20 sec of warning before shaking from the M 4.5 Loma Prieta aftershock that occurred on 2 November 1989 at 0550 UTC. In its first 6 months of operation, the system generated triggers for all 12 M > 3.7 aftershocks for which trigger documentation is preserved, did not trigger on any M ≦ 3.6 aftershocks, and produced one false trigger as a result of a now-corrected single point of failure design flaw. Because the prototype system demonstrated that potentially useful warnings of strong shaking from aftershocks are feasible, the USGS has completed a portable early warning system for aftershocks that can be deployed anywhere.

  10. Iterative Strategies for Aftershock Classification in Automatic Seismic Processing Pipelines

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gibbons, Steven J.; Kvaerna, Tormod; Harris, David B.

    We report aftershock sequences following very large earthquakes present enormous challenges to near-real-time generation of seismic bulletins. The increase in analyst resources needed to relocate an inflated number of events is compounded by failures of phase-association algorithms and a significant deterioration in the quality of underlying, fully automatic event bulletins. Current processing pipelines were designed a generation ago, and, due to computational limitations of the time, are usually limited to single passes over the raw data. With current processing capability, multiple passes over the data are feasible. Processing the raw data at each station currently generates parametric data streams thatmore » are then scanned by a phase-association algorithm to form event hypotheses. We consider the scenario in which a large earthquake has occurred and propose to define a region of likely aftershock activity in which events are detected and accurately located, using a separate specially targeted semiautomatic process. This effort may focus on so-called pattern detectors, but here we demonstrate a more general grid-search algorithm that may cover wider source regions without requiring waveform similarity. Given many well-located aftershocks within our source region, we may remove all associated phases from the original detection lists prior to a new iteration of the phase-association algorithm. We provide a proof-of-concept example for the 2015 Gorkha sequence, Nepal, recorded on seismic arrays of the International Monitoring System. Even with very conservative conditions for defining event hypotheses within the aftershock source region, we can automatically remove about half of the original detections that could have been generated by Nepal earthquakes and reduce the likelihood of false associations and spurious event hypotheses. Lastly, further reductions in the number of detections in the parametric data streams are likely, using correlation and subspace

  11. Iterative Strategies for Aftershock Classification in Automatic Seismic Processing Pipelines

    DOE PAGES

    Gibbons, Steven J.; Kvaerna, Tormod; Harris, David B.; ...

    2016-06-08

    We report aftershock sequences following very large earthquakes present enormous challenges to near-real-time generation of seismic bulletins. The increase in analyst resources needed to relocate an inflated number of events is compounded by failures of phase-association algorithms and a significant deterioration in the quality of underlying, fully automatic event bulletins. Current processing pipelines were designed a generation ago, and, due to computational limitations of the time, are usually limited to single passes over the raw data. With current processing capability, multiple passes over the data are feasible. Processing the raw data at each station currently generates parametric data streams thatmore » are then scanned by a phase-association algorithm to form event hypotheses. We consider the scenario in which a large earthquake has occurred and propose to define a region of likely aftershock activity in which events are detected and accurately located, using a separate specially targeted semiautomatic process. This effort may focus on so-called pattern detectors, but here we demonstrate a more general grid-search algorithm that may cover wider source regions without requiring waveform similarity. Given many well-located aftershocks within our source region, we may remove all associated phases from the original detection lists prior to a new iteration of the phase-association algorithm. We provide a proof-of-concept example for the 2015 Gorkha sequence, Nepal, recorded on seismic arrays of the International Monitoring System. Even with very conservative conditions for defining event hypotheses within the aftershock source region, we can automatically remove about half of the original detections that could have been generated by Nepal earthquakes and reduce the likelihood of false associations and spurious event hypotheses. Lastly, further reductions in the number of detections in the parametric data streams are likely, using correlation and subspace

  12. Iterative Strategies for Aftershock Classification in Automatic Seismic Processing Pipelines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibbons, Steven J.; Kværna, Tormod; Harris, David B.; Dodge, Douglas A.

    2016-04-01

    Aftershock sequences following very large earthquakes present enormous challenges to near-realtime generation of seismic bulletins. The increase in analyst resources needed to relocate an inflated number of events is compounded by failures of phase association algorithms and a significant deterioration in the quality of underlying fully automatic event bulletins. Current processing pipelines were designed a generation ago and, due to computational limitations of the time, are usually limited to single passes over the raw data. With current processing capability, multiple passes over the data are feasible. Processing the raw data at each station currently generates parametric data streams which are then scanned by a phase association algorithm to form event hypotheses. We consider the scenario where a large earthquake has occurred and propose to define a region of likely aftershock activity in which events are detected and accurately located using a separate specially targeted semi-automatic process. This effort may focus on so-called pattern detectors, but here we demonstrate a more general grid search algorithm which may cover wider source regions without requiring waveform similarity. Given many well-located aftershocks within our source region, we may remove all associated phases from the original detection lists prior to a new iteration of the phase association algorithm. We provide a proof-of-concept example for the 2015 Gorkha sequence, Nepal, recorded on seismic arrays of the International Monitoring System. Even with very conservative conditions for defining event hypotheses within the aftershock source region, we can automatically remove over half of the original detections which could have been generated by Nepal earthquakes and reduce the likelihood of false associations and spurious event hypotheses. Further reductions in the number of detections in the parametric data streams are likely using correlation and subspace detectors and/or empirical matched

  13. The 2016 Kumamoto-Oita earthquake sequence: aftershock seismicity gap and dynamic triggering in volcanic areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uchide, Takahiko; Horikawa, Haruo; Nakai, Misato; Matsushita, Reiken; Shigematsu, Norio; Ando, Ryosuke; Imanishi, Kazutoshi

    2016-11-01

    The 2016 Kumamoto-Oita earthquake sequence involving three large events ( M w ≥ 6) in the central Kyushu Island, southwest Japan, activated seismicities in two volcanic areas with unusual and puzzling spatial gaps after the largest earthquake ( M w 7.0) of April 16, 2016. We attempt to reveal the seismic process during the sequence by following seismological data analyses. Our hypocenter relocation result implies that the large events ruptured different faults of a complex fault system. A slip inversion analysis of the largest event indicates a large slip in the seismicity gap (Aso gap) in the caldera of Mt. Aso, which probably released accumulated stress and resulted in little aftershock production. We identified that the largest event dynamically triggered a mid-M6 event at Yufuin (80 km northeast of the epicenter), which is consistent with existence of the 20-km long zone where seismicity was activated and surface offset was observed. These findings will help us study the contribution of the identified complexity in fault geometries and the geotherm in the volcanic areas to the revealed seismic process and consequently improve our understanding of the seismo-volcano tectonics.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  14. Damped regional-scale stress inversions: Methodology and examples for southern California and the Coalinga aftershock sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, J.L.; Michael, A.J.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new focal mechanism stress inversion technique to produce regional-scale models of stress orientation containing the minimum complexity necessary to fit the data. Current practice is to divide a region into small subareas and to independently fit a stress tensor to the focal mechanisms of each subarea. This procedure may lead to apparent spatial variability that is actually an artifact of overfitting noisy data or nonuniquely fitting data that does not completely constrain the stress tensor. To remove these artifacts while retaining any stress variations that are strongly required by the data, we devise a damped inversion method to simultaneously invert for stress in all subareas while minimizing the difference in stress between adjacent subareas. This method is conceptually similar to other geophysical inverse techniques that incorporate damping, such as seismic tomography. In checkerboard tests, the damped inversion removes the stress rotation artifacts exhibited by an undamped inversion, while resolving sharper true stress rotations than a simple smoothed model or a moving-window inversion. We show an example of a spatially damped stress field for southern California. The methodology can also be used to study temporal stress changes, and an example for the Coalinga, California, aftershock sequence is shown. We recommend use of the damped inversion technique for any study examining spatial or temporal variations in the stress field.

  15. Tests of remote aftershock triggering by small mainshocks using Taiwan's earthquake catalog

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, W.; Toda, S.

    2014-12-01

    To understand earthquake interaction and forecast time-dependent seismic hazard, it is essential to evaluate which stress transfer, static or dynamic, plays a major role to trigger aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks. Felzer and Brodsky focused on small mainshocks (2≤M<3) and their aftershocks, and then argued that only dynamic stress change brings earthquake-to-earthquake triggering, whereas Richards-Dingers et al. (2010) claimed that those selected small mainshock-aftershock pairs were not earthquake-to-earthquake triggering but simultaneous occurrence of independent aftershocks following a larger earthquake or during a significant swarm sequence. We test those hypotheses using Taiwan's earthquake catalog by taking the advantage of lacking any larger event and the absence of significant seismic swarm typically seen with active volcano. Using Felzer and Brodsky's method and their standard parameters, we only found 14 mainshock-aftershock pairs occurred within 20 km distance in Taiwan's catalog from 1994 to 2010. Although Taiwan's catalog has similar number of earthquakes as California's, the number of pairs is about 10% of the California catalog. It may indicate the effect of no large earthquakes and no significant seismic swarm in the catalog. To fully understand the properties in the Taiwan's catalog, we loosened the screening parameters to earn more pairs and then found a linear aftershock density with a power law decay of -1.12±0.38 that is very similar to the one in Felzer and Brodsky. However, none of those mainshock-aftershock pairs were associated with a M7 rupture event or M6 events. To find what mechanism controlled the aftershock density triggered by small mainshocks in Taiwan, we randomized earthquake magnitude and location. We then found that those density decay in a short time period is more like a randomized behavior than mainshock-aftershock triggering. Moreover, 5 out of 6 pairs were found in a swarm-like temporal seismicity rate increase

  16. The 2012 Emilia seismic sequence (Northern Italy): Imaging the thrust fault system by accurate aftershock location

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Govoni, Aladino; Marchetti, Alessandro; De Gori, Pasquale; Di Bona, Massimo; Lucente, Francesco Pio; Improta, Luigi; Chiarabba, Claudio; Nardi, Anna; Margheriti, Lucia; Agostinetti, Nicola Piana; Di Giovambattista, Rita; Latorre, Diana; Anselmi, Mario; Ciaccio, Maria Grazia; Moretti, Milena; Castellano, Corrado; Piccinini, Davide

    2014-05-01

    Starting from late May 2012, the Emilia region (Northern Italy) was severely shaken by an intense seismic sequence, originated from a ML 5.9 earthquake on May 20th, at a hypocentral depth of 6.3 km, with thrust-type focal mechanism. In the following days, the seismic rate remained high, counting 50 ML ≥ 2.0 earthquakes a day, on average. Seismicity spreads along a 30 km east-west elongated area, in the Po river alluvial plain, in the nearby of the cities Ferrara and Modena. Nine days after the first shock, another destructive thrust-type earthquake (ML 5.8) hit the area to the west, causing further damage and fatalities. Aftershocks following this second destructive event extended along the same east-westerly trend for further 20 km to the west, thus illuminating an area of about 50 km in length, on the whole. After the first shock struck, on May 20th, a dense network of temporary seismic stations, in addition to the permanent ones, was deployed in the meizoseismal area, leading to a sensible improvement of the earthquake monitoring capability there. A combined dataset, including three-component seismic waveforms recorded by both permanent and temporary stations, has been analyzed in order to obtain an appropriate 1-D velocity model for earthquake location in the study area. Here we describe the main seismological characteristics of this seismic sequence and, relying on refined earthquakes location, we make inferences on the geometry of the thrust system responsible for the two strongest shocks.

  17. The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Riel, Bryan; Owen, Susan E; Moore, Angelyn W; Samsonov, Sergey V; Ortega Culaciati, Francisco; Minson, Sarah E.

    2016-01-01

    The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

  18. Cataloging the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central U.S., earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2009-01-01

    The three principal New Madrid, central U.S., mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for the sequence, historical accounts provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large aftershocks as well as the mainshocks. Several detailed eyewitness accounts of the sequence provide sufficient information to identify times and rough magnitude estimates for a number of aftershocks that have not been analyzed previously. I also use three extended compilations of felt events to explore the overall sequence productivity. Although one generally cannot estimate magnitudes or locations for individual events, the intensity distributions of recent, instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the region provide a basis for estimation of the magnitude distribution of 1811-1812 aftershocks. The distribution is consistent with a b-value distribution. I estimate Mw 6-6.3 for the three largest identifiable aftershocks, apart from the so-called dawn aftershock on 16 December 1811.

  19. Aftershock patterns and main shock faulting

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mendoza, C.; Hartzell, S.H.

    1988-01-01

    We have compared aftershock patterns following several moderate to large earthquakes with the corresponding distributions of coseismic slip obtained from previous analyses of the recorded strong ground motion and teleseismic waveforms. Our results are consistent with a hypothesis of aftershock occurrence that requires a secondary redistribution of stress following primary failure on the earthquake fault. Aftershocks followng earthquakes examined in this study occur mostly outside of or near the edges of the source areas indicated by the patterns of main shock slip. The spatial distribution of aftershocks reflects either a continuation of slip in the outer regions of the areas of maximum coseismic displacement or the activation of subsidiary faults within the volume surrounding the boundaries of main shock rupture. -from Authors

  20. Making Initial Earthquake Catalogs from a Temporary Seismic Network for Monitoring Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, J.; Kang, T. S.; Kim, K. H.; Rhie, J.; Kim, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The ML 5.1 foreshock and the ML 5.8 mainshock earthquakes occurred consecutively in Gyeongju, the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula, on September 12, 2016. A temporary seismic network was installed quickly to observe aftershocks followed this mainshock event in the vicinity of the epicenter. The network was consisting of 27 stations equipped with broadband sensors initially and it has been operated in off-line system which required a periodic manual backup of the recorded data. We detected P-triggers and associated events by using SeisComP3 to make an initial catalogue of aftershock events rapidly. If necessary, manual picking was performed to obtain precise P- and S-arrival times from a module, scolv, included in SeisComP3. For cross-checking of reliable identification of seismic phases, a seismic python package, PhasePApy, was applied in parallel with SeisComP3. Then we get the precise relocated coordinates and depth of the aftershock events using the velellipse algorithm. The resulting dataset comprises of an initial aftershock catalog. The catalog will provide the means to address some important questions and issues on seismogenesis in this intraplate seismicity region including the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake sequence and to improve seismic hazard estimation of the region.

  1. The 1992 Landers earthquake sequence; seismological observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Egill Hauksson,; Jones, Lucile M.; Hutton, Kate; Eberhart-Phillips, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The (MW6.1, 7.3, 6.2) 1992 Landers earthquakes began on April 23 with the MW6.1 1992 Joshua Tree preshock and form the most substantial earthquake sequence to occur in California in the last 40 years. This sequence ruptured almost 100 km of both surficial and concealed faults and caused aftershocks over an area 100 km wide by 180 km long. The faulting was predominantly strike slip and three main events in the sequence had unilateral rupture to the north away from the San Andreas fault. The MW6.1 Joshua Tree preshock at 33°N58′ and 116°W19′ on 0451 UT April 23 was preceded by a tightly clustered foreshock sequence (M≤4.6) beginning 2 hours before the mainshock and followed by a large aftershock sequence with more than 6000 aftershocks. The aftershocks extended along a northerly trend from about 10 km north of the San Andreas fault, northwest of Indio, to the east-striking Pinto Mountain fault. The Mw7.3 Landers mainshock occurred at 34°N13′ and 116°W26′ at 1158 UT, June 28, 1992, and was preceded for 12 hours by 25 small M≤3 earthquakes at the mainshock epicenter. The distribution of more than 20,000 aftershocks, analyzed in this study, and short-period focal mechanisms illuminate a complex sequence of faulting. The aftershocks extend 60 km to the north of the mainshock epicenter along a system of at least five different surficial faults, and 40 km to the south, crossing the Pinto Mountain fault through the Joshua Tree aftershock zone towards the San Andreas fault near Indio. The rupture initiated in the depth range of 3–6 km, similar to previous M∼5 earthquakes in the region, although the maximum depth of aftershocks is about 15 km. The mainshock focal mechanism showed right-lateral strike-slip faulting with a strike of N10°W on an almost vertical fault. The rupture formed an arclike zone well defined by both surficial faulting and aftershocks, with more westerly faulting to the north. This change in strike is accomplished by jumping across

  2. Complex faulting associated with the 22 December 2003 Mw 6.5 San Simeon California, earthquake, aftershocks and postseismic surface deformation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McLaren, Marcia K.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Unruh, Jeffrey R.; Bawden, Gerald W.; Blair, James Luke

    2008-01-01

    We use data from two seismic networks and satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imagery to characterize the 22 December 2003 Mw 6.5 San Simeon earthquake sequence. Absolute locations for the mainshock and nearly 10,000 aftershocks were determined using a new three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model; relative locations were obtained using double difference. The mainshock location found using the 3D velocity model is 35.704° N, 121.096° W at a depth of 9.7±0.7 km. The aftershocks concentrate at the northwest and southeast parts of the aftershock zone, between the mapped traces of the Oceanic and Nacimiento fault zones. The northwest end of the mainshock rupture, as defined by the aftershocks, projects from the mainshock hypocenter to the surface a few kilometers west of the mapped trace of the Oceanic fault, near the Santa Lucia Range front and the >5 mm postseismic InSAR imagery contour. The Oceanic fault in this area, as mapped by Hall (1991), is therefore probably a second-order synthetic thrust or reverse fault that splays upward from the main seismogenic fault at depth. The southeast end of the rupture projects closer to the mapped Oceanic fault trace, suggesting much of the slip was along this fault, or at a minimum is accommodating much of the postseismic deformation. InSAR imagery shows ∼72 mm of postseismic uplift in the vicinity of maximum coseismic slip in the central section of the rupture, and ∼48 and ∼45 mm at the northwest and southeast end of the aftershock zone, respectively. From these observations, we model a ∼30-km-long northwest-trending northeast-dipping mainshock rupture surface—called the mainthrust—which is likely the Oceanic fault at depth, a ∼10-km-long southwest-dipping backthrust parallel to the mainthrust near the hypocenter, several smaller southwest-dipping structures in the southeast, and perhaps additional northeast-dipping or subvertical structures southeast of the mainshock plane

  3. Spectral scaling of the aftershocks of the Tocopilla 2007 earthquake in northern Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lancieri, M.; Madariaga, R.; Bonilla, F.

    2012-04-01

    We study the scaling of spectral properties of a set of 68 aftershocks of the 2007 November 14 Tocopilla (M 7.8) earthquake in northern Chile. These are all subduction events with similar reverse faulting focal mechanism that were recorded by a homogenous network of continuously recording strong motion instruments. The seismic moment and the corner frequency are obtained assuming that the aftershocks satisfy an inverse omega-square spectral decay; radiated energy is computed integrating the square velocity spectrum corrected for attenuation at high frequencies and for the finite bandwidth effect. Using a graphical approach, we test the scaling of seismic spectrum, and the scale invariance of the apparent stress drop with the earthquake size. To test whether the Tocopilla aftershocks scale with a single parameter, we introduce a non-dimensional number, ?, that should be constant if earthquakes are self-similar. For the Tocopilla aftershocks, Cr varies by a factor of 2. More interestingly, Cr for the aftershocks is close to 2, the value that is expected for events that are approximately modelled by a circular crack. Thus, in spite of obvious differences in waveforms, the aftershocks of the Tocopilla earthquake are self-similar. The main shock is different because its records contain large near-field waves. Finally, we investigate the scaling of energy release rate, Gc, with the slip. We estimated Gc from our previous estimates of the source parameters, assuming a simple circular crack model. We find that Gc values scale with the slip, and are in good agreement with those found by Abercrombie and Rice for the Northridge aftershocks.

  4. Transient poroelastic stress coupling between the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake and its M7.3 aftershock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tung, S.; Masterlark, T.; Dovovan, T.

    2018-05-01

    The large M7.3 aftershock occurred 17 days after the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake. We investigate if this sequence is mechanically favored by the mainshock via time-dependent fluid migration and pore pressure recovery. This study uses finite element models of fully-coupled poroelastic coseismic and postseismic behavior to simulate the evolving stress and pore-pressure fields. Using simulations of a reasonable permeability, the hypocenter was destabilized by an additional 0.15 MPa of Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) and 0.17 MPa of pore pressure (Δp), the latter of which induced lateral and upward diffusive fluid flow (up to 2.76 mm/day) in the aftershock region. The M7.3 location is predicted next to a local maximum of Δp and a zone of positive ΔCFS northeast of Kathmandu. About 60% of the aftershocks occurred within zones having either Δp > 0 or ΔCFS > 0. Particularly in the eastern flank of the epicentral area, 83% of the aftershocks experienced postseismic fluid pressurization and 88% of them broke out with positive pore pressure, which are discernibly more than those with positive ΔCFS (71%). The transient scalar field of fluid pressurization provides a good proxy to predict aftershock-prone areas in space and time, because it does not require extraction of an assumed vector field from transient stress tensor fields as is the case for ΔCFS calculations. A bulk permeability of 8.32 × 10-18 m2 is resolved to match the transient response and the timing of the M7.3 rupture which occurred at the peak of the ΔCFS time-series. This estimate is consistent with the existing power-law permeability-versus-depth models, suggesting an intermediately-fractured upper crust coherent with the local geology of the central Himalayas. The contribution of poroelastic triggering is verified against different poroelastic moduli and surface flow-pressure boundaries, suggesting that a poroelastic component is essential to account for the time interval separating the

  5. Foreshocks and aftershocks of Pisagua 2014 earthquake: time and space evolution of megathrust event.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Rietbrock, Andreas; Wollam, Jack; Thomas, Reece; de Lima Neto, Oscar; Tavera, Hernando; Garth, Thomas; Ruiz, Sergio

    2016-04-01

    The 2014 Pisagua earthquake of magnitude 8.2 is the first case in Chile where a foreshock sequence was clearly recorded by a local network, as well all the complete sequence including the mainshock and its aftershocks. The seismicity of the last year before the mainshock include numerous clusters close to the epicentral zone (Ruiz et al; 2014) but it was on 16th March that this activity became stronger with the Mw 6.7 precursory event taking place in front of Iquique coast at 12 km depth. The Pisagua earthquake arrived on 1st April 2015 breaking almost 120 km N-S and two days after a 7.6 aftershock occurred in the south of the rupture, enlarging the zone affected by this sequence. In this work, we analyse the foreshocks and aftershock sequence of Pisagua earthquake, from the spatial and time evolution for a total of 15.764 events that were recorded from the 1st March to 31th May 2015. This event catalogue was obtained from the automatic analyse of seismic raw data of more than 50 stations installed in the north of Chile and the south of Peru. We used the STA/LTA algorithm for the detection of P and S arrival times on the vertical components and then a method of back propagation in a 1D velocity model for the event association and preliminary location of its hypocenters following the algorithm outlined by Rietbrock et al. (2012). These results were then improved by locating with NonLinLoc software using a regional velocity model. We selected the larger events to analyse its moment tensor solution by a full waveform inversion using ISOLA software. In order to understand the process of nucleation and propagation of the Pisagua earthquake, we also analysed the evolution in time of the seismicity of the three months of data. The zone where the precursory events took place was strongly activated two weeks before the mainshock and remained very active until the end of the analysed period with an important quantity of the seismicity located in the upper plate and having

  6. Aftershock Comparisons of the Tehuantepec and Puebla Earthquakes: Implications for the Transition between Aseismic and Seismic Behavior?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, E.

    2017-12-01

    Reduced aftershock productivity has been observed in subduction zones where slow slip events and aseismic transients have also been observed. A comparison of the aftershock productivity of the recent Tehuantepec and Puebla earthquakes corroborates such observations. The Tehuantepec earthquake of 8 September 2017 produced hundreds of aftershocks and arguably still continues to produce them as of late October 2017, whereas the Puebla earthquake of 19 September 2017 notably lacks aftershocks. This difference in productivity cannot simply be ascribed to differences in mainshock magnitude or detection thresholds. The Puebla earthquake occurred downdip from and just adjacent to the eastern edges of previously observed slow slip events in the Guerrero Gap, whereas the Tehuantepec event is quite removed along strike from the Guerrero Gap and ruptured a patch of fault adjacent to other previous ruptures that also produced standard aftershock sequences. In order to compare aftershock productivity of earthquakes near the Guerrero Gap slow slip region with adjacent regions I used the Advanced National Seismic System catalog and counted aftershocks within a 14-day 100-km window of 42 M>=6.0 slab earthquakes that occurred since 2001 in a box bounded by 13°N and 20°N, and between 91°W and 103°W. This box includes the Guerrero Gap and significant portions of the plate boundary on either side. Preliminary results indicate that ordinary fast-rupturing earthquake productivity in general is much reduced near the location of known SSEs and aftershock productivity of those events that do occur is low compared to earthquakes outside that zone. Earthquakes with low aftershock productivity may represent transitional behavior from aseismic to seismic and in terms of frictional rheology, may represent the transition from velocity weakening to velocity strengthening.

  7. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales, Ecuador earthquake: Minimum 1D Velocity Model and Regional Moment Tensors Based on the Aftershock Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leon-Rios, S.; Aguiar, A. L.; Bie, L.; Edwards, B.; Fuenzalida Velasco, A. J.; Holt, J.; Garth, T.; González, P. J.; Rietbrock, A.; Agurto-Detzel, H.; Charvis, P.; Font, Y.; Nocquet, J. M.; Regnier, M. M.; Renouard, A.; Mercerat, D.; Pernoud, M.; Beck, S. L.; Meltzer, A.; Soto-Cordero, L.; Alvarado, A. P.; Perrault, M.; Ruiz, M. C.; Santo, J.

    2017-12-01

    On 16th April 2016, a Mw 7.8 mega-thrust earthquake occurred in northern Ecuador, close to the city of Pedernales. The event that ruptured an area of 120 x 60 km led to a deployment of a large array of seismic instruments as part of a collaborative project between the Geophysical Institute of Ecuador (IGEPN), Lehigh University (USA), University of Arizona (USA), Geoazur (France) and the University of Liverpool (UK). This dense seismic network, with more than 80 stations, includes broadband, short period, strong motion and OBS instruments were recording up to one year after the mainshock. Using the recorded data set, we manually analysed and located 450 events. Selection was based on the largest aftershocks (Ml > 3.5 from the IGEPN catalogue) and additional preliminary automatic locations to increase the observation density in the southern part of the network. High quality P and S arrival times plus several reference velocity structures were used to create more than 80.000 input models in order to obtain a minimum 1D velocity model and associated P and S waves station correction terms. Aftershock locations are concentrated in NW-SE striking lineaments reaching the trench. Additionally, we computed moment tensor solutions for a subset of earthquakes to independently confirm hypocentre depths using a full waveform simulation approach. Based on this analysis we can identify normal and strike-slip events located in the marine forearc and close to the trench. This type of activity has been observed in previous megathrust earthquakes (e.g. Maule 2010 and Tohoku-Oki 2011), and might be associated with extensional re-activation of existing fault systems due to a large event located on the megathrust fault.

  8. Rupture Processes of the Mw8.3 Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake and Aftershock Sequences from 3-D Back Projection Imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jian, P. R.; Hung, S. H.; Meng, L.

    2014-12-01

    On May 24, 2013, the largest deep earthquake ever recorded in history occurred on the southern tip of the Kamchatka Island, where the Pacific Plate subducts underneath the Okhotsk Plate. Previous 2D beamforming back projection (BP) of P- coda waves suggests the mainshock ruptured bilaterally along a horizontal fault plane determined by the global centroid moment tensor solution. On the other hand, the multiple point source inversion of P and SH waveforms argued that the earthquake comprises a sequence of 6 subevents not located on a single plane but actually distributed in a zone that extends 64 km horizontally and 35 km in depth. We then apply a three-dimensional MUSIC BP approach to resolve the rupture processes of the manishock and two large aftershocks (M6.7) with no a priori setup of preferential orientations of the planar rupture. The maximum pseudo-spectrum of high-frequency P wave in a sequence of time windows recorded by the densely-distributed stations from US and EU Array are used to image 3-D temporal and spatial rupture distribution. The resulting image confirms that the nearly N-S striking but two antiparallel rupture stages. The first subhorizontal rupture initially propagates toward the NNE direction, while at 18 s later it directs reversely to the SSW and concurrently shifts downward to 35 km deeper lasting for about 20 s. The rupture lengths in the first NNE-ward and second SSW-ward stage are about 30 km and 85 km; the estimated rupture velocities are 3 km/s and 4.25 km/s, respectively. Synthetic experiments are undertaken to assess the capability of the 3D MUSIC BP for the recovery of spatio-temporal rupture processes. Besides, high frequency BP images based on the EU-Array data show two M6.7 aftershocks are more likely to rupture on the vertical fault planes.

  9. A detailed study of the Pernik (Bulgaria) seismic sequence of 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raykova, Plamena; Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stela; Dimitrova, Liliya

    2014-05-01

    A detailed study of the Pernik (Bulgaria) seismic sequence of 2012 D.Solakov, S.Simeonova ,I. Georgiev, P.Raykova, L.Dimitrova and V.Protopopova National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography-BAS, Sofia, Bulgaria The spatial and temporal clustering of aftershocks is the dominant non-random element of seismicity, so that when aftershocks are removed, the remaining activity can be modelled (as first approximation) as a Poisson process. The properties of aftershock sequences (distinct cluster, for example; even aftershocks can have aftershocks) allow time-dependent prediction of aftershock probabilities. Consideration of recent earthquake sequences suggests that aftershocks to large earthquakes although they are still, by definition, smaller events, can be very damaging and should be addressed in emergence planning scenarios. Because of the factors such as location and radiation pattern and the cumulative nature of building damage, aftershocks can cause more damage than the main shock. An earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 hit Sofia seismic zone, on May 22nd, 2012. The earthquake occurred in the vicinity of Pernik city, at about 25 km south west of the city of Sofia (the capital of Bulgaria). The event was followed by intensive activity. The active area is situated in the central part of western Bulgaria. That is the most populated (more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria. Seismicity in the zone is related to the marginal neotectonic faults of Sofia graben. The boundaries of the graben are represented by SE-NW fault system with expressive neotectonic activity. This zone is characterized by shallow earthquakes. The strongest known event in the region is the 1858 quake with intensity I0=9-10 MSK. The 1858 earthquake caused heavy destruction in the city of Sofia and the appearance of thermal spring. It is worth mentioning that the seismic sequence of May 2912 occurred in an area characterized by a long quiescence (of 95 years

  10. Fault structure in the Nepal Himalaya as illuminated by aftershocks of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake recorded by the local NAMASTE network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, A.; Mendoza, M.; LI, B.; Karplus, M. S.; Nabelek, J.; Sapkota, S. N.; Adhikari, L. B.; Klemperer, S. L.; Velasco, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), that accommodates majority of the plate motion between Indian and Eurasian plate, is being debated for a long time. Different models have been proposed; some of them are significantly different from others. Obtaining a well constrained geometry of the MHT is challenging mainly because of the lack of high quality data, inherent low resolution and non-uniqueness of the models. We used a dense local seismic network - NAMASTE - to record and analyze a prolific aftershock sequence following the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, and determine geometry of the MHT constrained by precisely located well-constrained aftershocks. We detected and located more than 15,000 aftershocks of the Gorkha earthquake using Hypoinverse and then relatively relocated using HypoDD algorithm. We selected about 7,000 earthquakes that are particularly well constrained to analyze the geometry of the megathrust. They illuminate fault structure in this part of the Himalaya with unprecedented detail. The MHT shows two subhorizontal planes connected by a duplex structure. The duplex structure is characterized by multiple steeply dipping planes. In addition, we used four large-aperture continental-scale seismic arrays at teleseismic distances to backproject high-frequency seismic radiation. Moreover, we combined all arrays to significantly increase the resolution and detectability. We imaged rupture propagation of the mainshock showing complexity near the end of the rupture that might help arresting of the rupture to the east. Furthermore, we continuously scanned teleseismic data for two weeks starting from immediately after the mainshock to detect and locate aftershock activity only using the arrays. Spatial pattern of the aftershocks was similar to the existing global catalog using conventional seismic network and technique. However, we detected more than twice as many aftershocks using the array technique compared to the global catalog including many

  11. Detection and location of small aftershocks using waveform cross correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitov, Ivan; Sanina, Irina; Sergeev, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    Aftershock sequences of earthquakes with magnitudes 5.0 and lower are difficult to detect and locate by sparse regional networks. Signals from aftershocks with magnitudes 2 to 3 are usually below detection thresholds of standard 3-C seismic stations at near regional distances. For seismic events close in space, the method waveform cross correlation (WCC) allows to reduce detection threshold by at least a unit of magnitude and to improve location precision to a few kilometers. Therefore, the WCC method is directly applicable to weak aftershock sequences. Here, we recover seismic activity after the earthquake near the town of Mariupol (Ukraine) occurred on August 7, 2016. The main shock was detected by many stations of the International monitoring system (IMS), including the closest primary IMS array stations AKASG (6.62 deg.) and BRTR (7.81), as well as 3-C station KBZ (5.00). The International data centre located this event (47.0013N, 37.5427E), estimated its origin time (08:15:4.1 UTC), magnitude (mb=4.5), and depth (6.8 km). This event was also detected by two array stations of the Institute for Dynamics of Geospheres (IDG) of the Russian Academy of Sciences: portable 3-C array RDON (3.28), which is the closest station, and MHVAR (7.96). Using signals from the main shock at five stations as waveform templates, we calculated continuous traces of cross correlation coefficient (CC) from the 7th to the 11th of August. We found that the best templates should include all regional phases, and thus, have the length from 80 s to 180 s. For detection, we used standard STA/LTA method with threshold depending on station. The accuracy of onset time estimation by the STA/LTA detector based on CC-traces is close to one sample, which varies from 0.05 s at BRTR to 0.005 s for RDON and MHVAR. Arrival times of all detected signals were reduced to origin times using the observed travel times from the main shock. Clusters of origin times are considered as event hypotheses in the

  12. Preliminary Results From the Chile-Illapel Aftershock Experiment (CHILLAX)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roecker, S. W.; Russo, R. M.; Comte, D.; Carrizo, D.; Peyrat, S.; Opazo, T.; Peña, G.; Farrell, M. E.; Moore, J.; Glick, R.; Rodriguez, E. E.

    2016-12-01

    On September 16, 2015, the Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake ruptured a segment of the Nazca-South America subduction zone directly to the north of the 2010 Maule Mw 8.8 earthquake. Soon afterwards, a team from the Departamento de Geofisica, University of Chile, installed 18 short period sensors on land above the rupture to record aftershocks. A month later, the network was upgraded and expanded with funding from NSF RAPID to 20 broad band stations, loaned by IRIS PASSCAL. The installation of the Chile-Illapel Aftershock Experiment (CHILLAX) was completed in mid-November, 2015, and will operate until November, 2016. Preliminary analysis of data collected to date indicates an average detection rate of about 1000 locatable aftershocks per month. The combined CHILLAX and Maule aftershock deployments will yield the first modern-instrumentation observations of the zone of along-strike rupture termination that separates these temporally related and spatially adjacent megathrust rupture zones. Additionally, seismic observations of this part of the Nazca subduction zone are relatively sparse, and an aftershock sequence provides an opportunity to fill this gap efficiently. Preliminary analysis of CHILLAX network data revealed unexpected patterns in seismicity down dip from the rupture zone, in the unusual "flat slab" region to the east. Compared to the Maule event, the Illapel rupture apparently generated a more significant increase in seismicity in the 60-200 km depth range, suggesting that it "lit up" the subducted Nazca plate. Although high strain rates due to rupture might extend brittle failure into normally ductile regions, such an effect at these depths by the relatively low magnitude Illapel event is unusual. A perhaps more intriguing result is the frequent occurrence of events at depths significantly below that of the "flat slab". Attribution of this apparent second, deeper slab segment to event mislocations would require unrealistic seismic heterogeneity, We hypothesize

  13. Utsu aftershock productivity law explained from geometric operations on the permanent static stress field of mainshocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mignan, Arnaud

    2018-03-01

    The aftershock productivity law is an exponential function of the form K ∝ exp(αM), with K being the number of aftershocks triggered by a given mainshock of magnitude M and α ≈ ln(10) being the productivity parameter. This law remains empirical in nature although it has also been retrieved in static stress simulations. Here, we parameterize this law using the solid seismicity postulate (SSP), the basis of a geometrical theory of seismicity where seismicity patterns are described by mathematical expressions obtained from geometric operations on a permanent static stress field. We first test the SSP that relates seismicity density to a static stress step function. We show that it yields a power exponent q = 1.96 ± 0.01 for the power-law spatial linear density distribution of aftershocks, once uniform noise is added to the static stress field, in agreement with observations. We then recover the exponential function of the productivity law with a break in scaling obtained between small and large M, with α = 1.5ln(10) and ln(10), respectively, in agreement with results from previous static stress simulations. Possible biases of aftershock selection, proven to exist in epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) simulations, may explain the lack of break in scaling observed in seismicity catalogues. The existence of the theoretical kink, however, remains to be proven. Finally, we describe how to estimate the solid seismicity parameters (activation density δ+, aftershock solid envelope r∗ and background stress amplitude range Δo∗) for large M values.

  14. The LVD signals during the early-mid stages of the L'Aquila seismic sequence and the radon signature of some aftershocks of moderate magnitude.

    PubMed

    Cigolini, C; Laiolo, M; Coppola, D

    2015-01-01

    The L'Aquila seismic swarm culminated with the mainshock of April 6, 2009 (ML = 5.9). Here, we report and analyze the Large Volume Detector (LVD, used in neutrinos research) low energy traces (∼0.8 MeV), collected during the early-mid stages of the seismic sequence, together with the data of a radon monitoring experiment. The peaks of LVD traces do not correlate with the evolution and magnitude of earthquakes, including major aftershocks. Conversely, our radon measurements obtained by utilizing three automatic stations deployed along the regional NW-SE faulting system, seem to be, in one case, more efficient. In fact, the timeseries collected on the NW-SE Paganica fracture recorded marked variations and peaks that occurred during and prior moderate aftershocks (with ML > 3). The Paganica monitoring station (PGN) seems to better responds to active seismicity due to the fact that the radon detector was placed directly within the bedrock of an active fault. It is suggested that future networks for radon monitoring of active seismicity should preferentially implement this setting. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Aftershocks of the India Republic Day Earthquake: the MAEC/ISTAR Temporary Seismograph Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodin, P.; Horton, S.; Johnston, A.; Patterson, G.; Bollwerk, J.; Rydelek, P.; Steiner, G.; McGoldrick, C.; Budhbhatti, K. P.; Shah, R.; Macwan, N.

    2001-05-01

    The MW=7.7 Republic Day (26 January, 2001) earthquake on the Kachchh in western India initiated a strong sequence of small aftershocks. Seventeen days following the mainshock, we deployed a network of portable digital event recorders as a cooperative project of the Mid America Earthquake Center in the US and the Institute for Scientific and Technological Advanced Research. Our network consisted of 8 event-triggered Kinemetrics K2 seismographs with 6 data channels (3 accelerometer, 3 Mark L-28/3d seismometer) sampled at 200 Hz, and one continuously-recording Guralp CMG40TD broad-band seismometer sampled at 220 Hz. This network was in place for 18 days. Underlying our network deployment was the notion that because of its tectonic and geologic setting the Republic Day earthquake and its aftershocks might have source and/or propagation characteristics common to earthquakes in stable continental plate-interiors rather than those on plate boundaries or within continental mobile belts. Thus, our goals were to provide data that could be used to compare the Republic Day earthquake with other earthquakes. In particular, the objectives of our network deployment were: (1) to characterize the spatial distribution and occurrence rates of aftershocks, (2) to examine source characteristics of the aftershocks (stress-drops, focal mechanisms), (3) to study the effect of deep unconsolidated sediment on wave propagation, and (4) to determine if other faults (notably the Allah Bundh) were simultaneously active. Most of our sites were on Jurassic bedrock, and all were either free-field, or on the floor of light structures built on rock or with a thin soil cover. However, one of our stations was on a section of unconsolidated sediments hundreds of meters thick adjacent to a site that was subjected to shaking-induced sediment liquefaction during the mainshock. The largest aftershock reported by global networks was an MW=5.9 event on January 28, prior to our deployment. The largest

  16. The 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake sequence: I. Source modeling and deterministic 3D ground shaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Shengji; Chen, Meng; Wang, Xin; Graves, Robert; Lindsey, Eric; Wang, Teng; Karakaş, Çağıl; Helmberger, Don

    2018-01-01

    To better quantify the relatively long period (< 0.3 Hz) shaking experienced during the 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake sequence, we study the finite rupture processes and the associated 3D ground motion of the Mw7.8 mainshock and the Mw7.2 aftershock. The 3D synthetics are then used in the broadband ground shaking in Kathmandu with a hybrid approach, summarized in a companion paper (Chen and Wei, 2017, submitted together). We determined the coseismic rupture process of the mainshock by joint inversion of InSAR/SAR, GPS (static and high-rate), strong motion and teleseismic waveforms. Our inversion for the mainshock indicates unilateral rupture towards the ESE, with an average rupture speed of 3.0 km/s and a total duration of 60 s. Additionally, we find that the beginning part of the rupture (5-18 s) has about 40% longer rise time than the rest of the rupture, as well as slower rupture velocity. Our model shows two strong asperities occurring 24 s and 36 s after the origin and located 30 km to the northwest and northeast of the Kathmandu valley, respectively. In contrast, the Mw7.2 aftershock is more compact both in time and space, as revealed by joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and InSAR data. The different rupture features between the mainshock and the aftershock could be related to difference in fault zone structure. The mainshock and aftershock ground motions in the Kathmandu valley, recorded by both strong motion and high-rate GPS stations, exhibited strong amplification around 0.2 Hz. A simplified 3D basin model, calibrated by an Mw5.2 aftershock, can match the observed waveforms reasonably well at 0.3 Hz and lower frequency. The 3D simulations indicate that the basin structure trapped the wavefield and produced an extensive ground vibration. Our study suggests that the combination of rupture characteristics and propagational complexity are required to understand the ground shaking produced by hazardous earthquakes such as the Gorkha event.

  17. Constraints on recent earthquake source parameters, fault geometry and aftershock characteristics in Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNamara, D. E.; Benz, H.; Herrmann, R. B.; Bergman, E. A.; McMahon, N. D.; Aster, R. C.

    2014-12-01

    In late 2009, the seismicity of Oklahoma increased dramatically. The largest of these earthquakes was a series of three damaging events (Mw 4.8, 5.6, 4.8) that occurred over a span of four days in November 2011 near the town of Prague in central Oklahoma. Studies suggest that these earthquakes were induced by reactivation of the Wilzetta fault due to the disposal of waste water from hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") and other oil and gas activities. The Wilzetta fault is a northeast trending vertical strike-slip fault that is a well known structural trap for oil and gas. Since the November 2011 Prague sequence, thousands of small to moderate (M2-M4) earthquakes have occurred throughout central Oklahoma. The most active regions are located near the towns of Stillwater and Medford in north-central Oklahoma, and Guthrie, Langston and Jones near Oklahoma City. The USGS, in collaboration with the Oklahoma Geological Survey and the University of Oklahoma, has responded by deploying numerous temporary seismic stations in the region in order to record the vigorous aftershock sequences. In this study we use data from the temporary seismic stations to re-locate all Oklahoma earthquakes in the USGS National Earthquake Information Center catalog using a multiple-event approach known as hypo-centroidal decomposition that locates earthquakes with decreased uncertainty relative to one another. Modeling from this study allows us to constrain the detailed geometry of the reactivated faults, as well as source parameters (focal mechanisms, stress drop, rupture length) for the larger earthquakes. Preliminary results from the November 2011 Prague sequence suggest that subsurface rupture lengths of the largest earthquakes are anomalously long with very low stress drop. We also observe very high Q (~1000 at 1 Hz) that explains the large felt areas and we find relatively low b-value and a rapid decay of aftershocks.

  18. On the origin of diverse aftershock mechanisms following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilb, Debi; Ellis, M.; Gomberg, J.; Davis, S.

    1997-01-01

    We test the hypothesis that the origin of the diverse suite of aftershock mechanisms following the 1989 M 7.1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake is related to the post-main-shock static stress field. We use a 3-D boundary-element algorithm to calculate static stresses, combined with a Coulomb failure criterion to calculate conjugate failure planes at aftershock locations. The post-main-shock static stress field is taken as the sum of a pre-existing stress field and changes in stress due to the heterogeneous slip across the Loma Prieta rupture plane. The background stress field is assumed to be either a simple shear parallel to the regional trend of the San Andreas fault or approximately fault-normal compression. A suite of synthetic aftershock mechanisms from the conjugate failure planes is generated and quantitatively compared (allowing for uncertainties in both mechanism parameters and earthquake locations) to well-constrained mechanisms reported in the US Geological Survey Northern California Seismic Network catalogue. We also compare calculated rakes with those observed by resolving the calculated stress tensor onto observed focal mechanism nodal planes, assuming either plane to be a likely rupture plane. Various permutations of the assumed background stress field, frictional coefficients of aftershock fault planes, methods of comparisons, etc. explain between 52 and 92 per cent of the aftershock mechanisms. We can explain a similar proportion of mechanisms however by comparing a randomly reordered catalogue with the various suites of synthetic aftershocks. The inability to duplicate aftershock mechanisms reliably on a one-to-one basis is probably a function of the combined uncertainties in models of main-shock slip distribution, the background stress field, and aftershock locations. In particular we show theoretically that any specific main-shock slip distribution and a reasonable background stress field are able to generate a highly variable suite of failure

  19. Site Effects Study In Athens (greece) Using The 7th September 1999 Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serpetsidaki, A.; Sokos, E.

    On 7 September 1999 at 11:56:50 GMT, an earthquake of Mw=5.9 occurred at Athens capital of Greece. The epicenter was located in the Northwest area of Parnitha Moun- tain at 18km distance from the city centre. This earthquake was one of the most de- structive in Greece during the modern times. The intensity of the earthquake reached IX in the Northwest territories of the city and caused the death of 143 people and seri- ous structural damage in many buildings. On the 13th of September the Seismological Laboratory of Patras University, installed a seismic network of 30 stations in order to observe the evolution of the aftershock sequence. This temporary seismic network remained in the area of Attika for 50 days and recorded a significant part of the af- tershock sequence. In this paper we use the high quality recordings of this network to investigate the influence of the surface geology to the seismic motion, on sites within the epicentral area, which suffered the most during this earthquake. We applied the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratio method on noise and on earthquake records and the obtained results exhibit very good agreement. Finally we compare the results with the geological conditions of the study area and the damage distribution. Most of the obtained amplification levels were low with an exemption in the site of Ano Liosia were a significant amount of damage was observed and the results indicate that the earthquake motion was amplified four times. Based on the above we conclude that the damages in the city of Athens were due to source effects rather than site effects.

  20. Depth dependent stress revealed by aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narteau, C.; Shebalin, P.

    2017-12-01

    Aftershocks occur in response to perturbations of the state of stress induced either by earthquakes or human activities. Along major strike-slip fault segments of the San Andreas fault system, the time-delay before the onset of the power-law aftershock decay rate (the c-value) varies by three orders of magnitude in the first twenty kilometers below the surface. Despite the influence of the lithostatic stress, there is no continuous change in c-value with respect to depth. Instead, two decay phases are separated by an abrupt increase at an intermediate depth range of 2 to 5 km. This transitional regime is the only one observed in fluid-injection-induced seismic areas. This provides strong evidence for the role of fluid and a porosity reduction mechanism at depth of few kilometers in active fault zones. Aftershock statistics can then be used to predict the evolution the differential shear stress with depth until the brittle-ductile transition is reached.

  1. Direct test of static stress versus dynamic stress triggering of aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pollitz, F.F.; Johnston, M.J.S.

    2006-01-01

    Aftershocks observed over time scales of minutes to months following a main shock are plausibly triggered by the static stress change imparted by the main shock, dynamic shaking effects associated with passage of seismic waves from the main shock, or a combination of the two. We design a direct test of static versus dynamic triggering of aftershocks by comparing the near-field temporal aftershock patterns generated by aseismic and impulsive events occurring in the same source area. The San Juan Bautista, California, area is ideally suited for this purpose because several events of both types of M???5 have occurred since 1974. We find that aftershock rates observed after impulsive events are much higher than those observed after aseismic events, and this pattern persists for several weeks after the event. This suggests that, at least in the near field, dynamic triggering is the dominant cause of aftershocks, and that it generates both immediate and delayed aftershock activity.

  2. Tectonic Setting and Aftershocks of the Mw 6.7 Feburary 14, 2013 Earthquake in Yakutia, Northeast Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rappolee, E.; Burk, D. R.; Mackey, K. G.; Fujita, K.; Shibaev, S. V.; Koz'min, B. M.

    2016-12-01

    The details of the seismotectonics along the boundary between the Eurasian, North American, and Okhotsk plates are poorly understood. Infrequent earthquakes of moderate size (Mw > 4) in this remote region make it difficult to characterize its tectonic activity. On February 14, 2013, an Mw 6.7 earthquake along this boundary in Northern Yakutia, Russia, resulted in a long sequence of aftershocks that provide an opportunity to better understand the region's geology. A temporary deployment of four seismic stations was installed around the main shock to supplement regional station coverage. During the ten day deployment, several thousand aftershocks were recorded. We have located 112 events using both first-arriving Pn and Sn and secondary arriving Pg and Sg phase time picks. The located aftershocks define a SSE striking zone approximately 30 km long and 10 km wide, east of the Illin'-Tas fault and northwest of the Indigirka River. Location depths range from 0 to 20 km. In conjunction with locating aftershocks, a local three-layer best-fit velocity was determined consisting of an upper crust (14 km thick, VPg = 6.06 km/s and VSg = 3.53 km/s), a lower crust (21 km thick, VP* = 6.45 km/s and VS* = 3.65 km/s), and a Moho (35 km deep, VPn = 7.98 km/s and VSn = 4.53 km/s). The mainshock epicenter falls in the northwestern corner of the aftershock zone, however its focal depth is not well established. Aftershock analysis is ongoing and will possibly provide a better understanding of the earthquake rupture zone. Nonetheless, results of this study support active thrusting and mountain building as a mechanism to accommodate compression along the North America-Eurasia boundary.

  3. High-precision relocation for aftershocks of the 2016 ML 5.8 Gyeongju earthquake in South Korea: Stress partitioning controlled by complex fault systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woo, J. U.; Rhie, J.; Kang, T. S.; Kim, S.; Chai, G.; Cho, E.

    2017-12-01

    Complex inherent fault system is one of key factors controlling the main shock occurrence and the pattern of aftershock sequence. Many field studies have shown that the fault systems in the Korean Peninsula are complex because they formed by various tectonic events since Proterozoic. Apart from that the mainshock is the largest one (ML 5.8) ever recorded in South Korea, the Gyeongju earthquake sequence shows particularly interesting features: ML 5.1 event preceded ML 5.8 event by 50 min and they are located closely to each other ( 1 km). In addition, ML 4.5 event occurred 2 3 km away from the two events after a week of the mainshock. Considering reported focal mechanisms and hypocenters of the three major events, it is unlikely that the earthquake sequence occurs on a single fault plane. To depict the detailed fault geometry associated with the sequence, we precisely determine the relative locations of 1,400 aftershocks recorded by 27 broadband stations, which started to be deployed less than one hour after the mainshock. Double difference algorithm is applied using relative travel time measurements by a waveform cross-correlation method. Relocated hypocenters show that a major fault striking NE-SW and some minor faults get involved in the sequence. In particular, aftershocks immediately following ML 4.5 event seem to occur on a fault striking NW-SE, which is orthogonal to the strike of a major fault. We expect that the Gyeongju earthquake sequence resulted from the stress transfer controlled by the complex inherent fault system in this region.

  4. Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.

    1994-01-01

    The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.

  5. Comparison of Observed Spatio-temporal Aftershock Patterns with Earthquake Simulator Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kroll, K.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    Due to the complex nature of faulting in southern California, knowledge of rupture behavior near fault step-overs is of critical importance to properly quantify and mitigate seismic hazards. Estimates of earthquake probability are complicated by the uncertainty that a rupture will stop at or jump a fault step-over, which affects both the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of earthquakes. In recent years, earthquake simulators and dynamic rupture models have begun to address the effects of complex fault geometries on earthquake ground motions and rupture propagation. Early models incorporated vertical faults with highly simplified geometries. Many current studies examine the effects of varied fault geometry, fault step-overs, and fault bends on rupture patterns; however, these works are limited by the small numbers of integrated fault segments and simplified orientations. The previous work of Kroll et al., 2013 on the northern extent of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah rupture in the Yuha Desert region uses precise aftershock relocations to show an area of complex conjugate faulting within the step-over region between the Elsinore and Laguna Salada faults. Here, we employ an innovative approach of incorporating this fine-scale fault structure defined through seismological, geologic and geodetic means in the physics-based earthquake simulator, RSQSim, to explore the effects of fine-scale structures on stress transfer and rupture propagation and examine the mechanisms that control aftershock activity and local triggering of other large events. We run simulations with primary fault structures in state of California and northern Baja California and incorporate complex secondary faults in the Yuha Desert region. These models produce aftershock activity that enables comparison between the observed and predicted distribution and allow for examination of the mechanisms that control them. We investigate how the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks are affected by

  6. Implications of diverse fault orientations imaged in relocated aftershocks of the Mount Lewis, ML 5.7, California, earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilb, D.; Rubin, A. M.

    2002-11-01

    We use seismic waveform cross correlation to determine the relative positions of 2747 microearthquakes near Mount Lewis, California, that have waveforms recorded from 1984 to 1999. These earthquakes include the aftershock sequence of the 1986 ML5.7 Mount Lewis earthquake. Approximately 90% of these aftershocks are located beyond the tips of the approximately north striking main shock, defining an hourglass with the long axis aligned approximately with the main shock. Surprisingly, our relocation demonstrates that many of these aftershocks illuminate a series of near-vertical east-west faults that are ˜0.5-1 km long and separated by as little as ˜200 m. We propose that these structures result from the growth of a relatively young fault in which displacement across a right-lateral approximately north striking fault zone is accommodated by slip on secondary left-lateral approximately east striking faults. We derive the main shock-induced static Coulomb failure function (Δσf) on the dominant fault orientation in our study area using a three-dimensional (3-D) boundary element program. To bound viable friction coefficients, we measure the correlation between the rank ordering of relative amplitudes of Δσf and seismicity rate change. We find that likely friction coefficients are 0.2-0.6 and that the assumed main shock geometry introduces the largest uncertainties in the favored friction values. We obtain similar results from a visual correlation of calculated Δσf contours with the distribution of aftershocks. Viable rate-and-state constitutive parameters bound the observed relationship between magnitude of Δσf and seismicity rate change, and for our favored main shock model a maximum correlation is achieved when Δσf is computed with friction coefficients of 0.3-0.6. These values are below those previously cited for young faults.

  7. Structural context of the 2015 pair of Nepal earthquakes (Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.3): an analysis based on slip distribution, aftershock growth, and static stress changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parameswaran, Revathy M.; Rajendran, Kusala

    2017-04-01

    The Great Himalayan earthquakes are believed to originate on the Main Himalayan Thrust, and their ruptures lead to deformation along the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). The rupture of the April 25, 2015 (Mw 7.8), earthquake was east-directed, with no part relayed to the MFT. The aftershock distribution, coseismic elevation change of 1 m inferred from the InSAR image, and the spatial correspondence of the subtle surface deformations with PT2, a previously mapped out-of-sequence thrust, lead us to explore the role of structural heterogeneities in constraining the rupture progression. We used teleseismic moment inversion of P- and SH-waves, and Coulomb static stress changes to map the slip distribution, and growth of aftershock area, to understand their relation to the thrust systems. Most of the aftershocks were sourced outside the stress shadows (slip >1.65 m) of the April 25 earthquake. The May 12 (Mw 7.3) earthquake that sourced on a contiguous patch coincides with regions of increased stress change and therefore is the first known post-instrumentation example of a late, distant, and large triggered aftershock associated with any large earthquake in the Nepal Himalaya. The present study relates the slip, aftershock productivity, and triggering of unbroken stress barriers, to potential out-of-sequence thrusts, and suggests the role of stress transfer in generating large/great earthquakes.

  8. Teleseismic Body Wave Analysis for the 27 September 2003 Altai, Earthquake (Mw7.4) and Large Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomez-Gonzalez, J. M.; Mellors, R.

    2007-05-01

    We investigate the kinematics of the rupture process for the September 27, 2003, Mw7.3, Altai earthquake and its associated large aftershocks. This is the largest earthquake striking the Altai mountains within the last 50 years, which provides important constraints on the ongoing tectonics. The fault plane solution obtained by teleseismic body waveform modeling indicated a predominantly strike-slip event (strike=130, dip=75, rake 170), Scalar moment for the main shock ranges from 0.688 to 1.196E+20 N m, a source duration of about 20 to 42 s, and an average centroid depth of 10 km. Source duration would indicate a fault length of about 130 - 270 km. The main shock was followed closely by two aftershocks (Mw5.7, Mw6.4) occurred the same day, another aftershock (Mw6.7) occurred on 1 October , 2003. We also modeled the second aftershock (Mw6.4) to asses geometric similarities during their respective rupture process. This aftershock occurred spatially very close to the mainshock and possesses a similar fault plane solution (strike=128, dip=71, rake=154), and centroid depth (13 km). Several local conditions, such as the crustal model and fault geometry, affect the correct estimation of some source parameters. We perfume a sensitivity evaluation of several parameters, including centroid depth, scalar moment and source duration, based on a point and finite source modeling. The point source approximation results are the departure parameters for the finite source exploration. We evaluate the different reported parameters to discard poor constrained models. In addition, deformation data acquired by InSAR are also included in the analysis.

  9. Rupture Speed and Dynamic Frictional Processes for the 1995 ML4.1 Shacheng, Hebei, China, Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, B.; Shi, B.

    2010-12-01

    An earthquake with ML4.1 occurred at Shacheng, Hebei, China, on July 20, 1995, followed by 28 aftershocks with 0.9≤ML≤4.0 (Chen et al, 2005). According to ZÚÑIGA (1993), for the 1995 ML4.1 Shacheng earthquake sequence, the main shock is corresponding to undershoot, while aftershocks should match overshoot. With the suggestion that the dynamic rupture processes of the overshoot aftershocks could be related to the crack (sub-fault) extension inside the main fault. After main shock, the local stresses concentration inside the fault may play a dominant role in sustain the crack extending. Therefore, the main energy dissipation mechanism should be the aftershocks fracturing process associated with the crack extending. We derived minimum radiation energy criterion (MREC) following variational principle (Kanamori and Rivera, 2004)(ES/M0')min≧[3M0/(ɛπμR3)](v/β)3, where ES and M0' are radiated energy and seismic moment gained from observation, μ is the modulus of fault rigidity, ɛ is the parameter of ɛ=M0'/M0,M0 is seismic moment and R is rupture size on the fault, v and β are rupture speed and S-wave speed. From II and III crack extending model, we attempt to reconcile a uniform expression for calculate seismic radiation efficiency ηG, which can be used to restrict the upper limit efficiency and avoid the non-physics phenomenon that radiation efficiency is larger than 1. In ML 4.1 Shacheng earthquake sequence, the rupture speed of the main shock was about 0.86 of S-wave speed β according to MREC, closing to the Rayleigh wave speed, while the rupture speeds of the remained 28 aftershocks ranged from 0.05β to 0.55β. The rupture speed was 0.9β, and most of the aftershocks are no more than 0.35β using II and III crack extending model. In addition, the seismic radiation efficiencies for this earthquake sequence were: for the most aftershocks, the radiation efficiencies were less than 10%, inferring a low seismic efficiency, whereas the radiation efficiency

  10. High-Resolution Uitra Low Power, Intergrated Aftershock and Microzonation System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Passmore, P.; Zimakov, L. G.

    2012-12-01

    Rapid Aftershock Mobilization plays an essential role in the understanding of both focal mechanism and rupture propagation caused by strong earthquakes. A quick assessment of the data provides a unique opportunity to study the dynamics of the entire earthquake process in-situ. Aftershock study also provides practical information for local authorities regarding the post earthquake activity, which is very important in order to conduct the necessary actions for public safety in the area affected by the strong earthquake. Refraction Technology, Inc. has developed a self-contained, fully integrated Aftershock System, model 160-03, providing the customer simple and quick deployment during aftershock emergency mobilization and microzonation studies. The 160-03 has no external cables or peripheral equipment for command/control and operation in the field. The 160-03 contains three major components integrated in one case: a) 24-bit resolution state-of-the art low power ADC with CPU and Lid interconnect boards; b) power source; and c) three component 2 Hz sensors (two horizontals and one vertical), and built-in ±4g accelerometer. Optionally, the 1 Hz sensors can be built-in the 160-03 system at the customer's request. The self-contained rechargeable battery pack provides power autonomy up to 7 days during data acquisition at 200 sps on continuous three weak motion and triggered three strong motion recording channels. For longer power autonomy, the 160-03 Aftershock System battery pack can be charged from an external source (solar power system). The data in the field is recorded to a built-in swappable USB flash drive. The 160-03 configuration is fixed based on a configuration file stored on the system, so no external command/control interface is required for parameter setup in the field. For visual control of the system performance in the field, the 160-03 has a built-in LED display which indicates the systems recording status as well as a hot swappable USB drive and battery

  11. Stress loading from viscous flow in the lower crust and triggering of aftershocks following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Deng, J.; Hudnut, K.; Gurnis, M.; Hauksson, E.

    1999-01-01

    Following the M(w) 6.7 Northridge earthquake, significant postseismic displacements were resolved with GPS. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastic model, we suggest that this deformation is mainly driven by viscous flow in the lower crust. Such flow can transfer stress to the upper crust and load the rupture zone of the main shock at a decaying rate. Most aftershocks within the rupture zone, especially those that occurred after the first several weeks of the main shock, may have been triggered by continuous stress loading from viscous flow. The long-term decay time of aftershocks (about 2 years) approximately matches the decay of viscoelastic loading, and thus is controlled by the viscosity of the lower crust. Our model provides a physical interpretation of the observed correlation between aftershock decay rate and surface heat flow.Following the Mw 6.7 Northridge earthquake, significant postseismic displacements were resolved with GPS. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastic model, we suggest that this deformation is mainly driven by viscous flow in the lower crust. Such flow can transfer stress to the upper crust and load the rupture zone of the main shock at a decaying rate. Most aftershocks within the rupture zone, especially those that occurred after the first several weeks of the main shock, may have been triggered by continuous stress loading from viscous flow. The long-term decay time of aftershocks (about 2 years) approximately matches the decay of viscoelastic loading, and thus is controlled by the viscosity of the lower crust. Our model provides a physical interpretation of the observed correlation between aftershock decay rate and surface heat flow.

  12. Frequency-dependent seismic attenuation in the eastern United States as observed from the 2011 central Virginia earthquake and aftershock sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Gee, Lind; Benz, Harley M.; Chapman, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Ground shaking due to earthquakes in the eastern United States (EUS) is felt at significantly greater distances than in the western United States (WUS) and for some earthquakes it has been shown to display a strong preferential direction. Shaking intensity variation can be due to propagation path effects, source directivity, and/or site amplification. In this paper, we use S and Lg waves recorded from the 2011 central Virginia earthquake and aftershock sequence, in the Central Virginia Seismic Zone, to quantify attenuation as frequency‐dependent Q(f). In support of observations based on shaking intensity, we observe high Q values in the EUS relative to previous studies in the WUS with especially efficient propagation along the structural trend of the Appalachian mountains. Our analysis of Q(f) quantifies the path effects of the northeast‐trending felt distribution previously inferred from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “Did You Feel It” data, historic intensity data, and the asymmetrical distribution of rockfalls and landslides.

  13. Exponential decline of aftershocks of the M7.9 1868 great Kau earthquake, Hawaii, through the 20th century

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klein, F.W.; Wright, Tim

    2008-01-01

    The remarkable catalog of Hawaiian earthquakes going back to the 1820s is based on missionary diaries, newspaper accounts, and instrumental records and spans the great M7.9 Kau earthquake of April 1868 and its aftershock sequence. The earthquake record since 1868 defines a smooth curve complete to M5.2 of the declining rate into the 21st century, after five short volcanic swarms are removed. A single aftershock curve fits the earthquake record, even with numerous M6 and 7 main shocks and eruptions. The timing of some moderate earthquakes may be controlled by magmatic stresses, but their overall long-term rate reflects one of aftershocks of the Kau earthquake. The 1868 earthquake is, therefore, the largest and most controlling stress event in the 19th and 20th centuries. We fit both the modified Omori (power law) and stretched exponential (SE) functions to the earthquakes. We found that the modified Omori law is a good fit to the M ??? 5.2 earthquake rate for the first 10 years or so and the more rapidly declining SE function fits better thereafter, as supported by three statistical tests. The switch to exponential decay suggests that a possible change in aftershock physics may occur from rate and state fault friction, with no change in the stress rate, to viscoelastic stress relaxation. The 61-year exponential decay constant is at the upper end of the range of geodetic relaxation times seen after other global earthquakes. Modeling deformation in Hawaii is beyond the scope of this paper, but a simple interpretation of the decay suggests an effective viscosity of 1019 to 1020 Pa s pertains in the volcanic spreading of Hawaii's flanks. The rapid decline in earthquake rate poses questions for seismic hazard estimates in an area that is cited as one of the most hazardous in the United States.

  14. The enigma of the Arthur's Pass, New Zealand, earthquake 1. Reconciling a variety of data for an unusual earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Abercrombie, R.E.; Webb, T.H.; Robinson, R.; McGinty, P.J.; Mori, J.J.; Beavan, R.J.

    2000-01-01

    The 1994 Arthur's Pass earthquake (Mw6.7) is the largest in a recent sequence of earthquakes in the central South Island, New Zealand. No surface rupture was observed the aftershock distribution was complex, and routine methods of obtaining the faulting orientation of this earthquake proved contradictory. We use a range of data and techniques to obtain our preferred solution, which has a centroid depth of 5 km, Mo=1.3??1019 N m, and a strike, dip, and rake of 221??, 47??, 112??, respectively. Discrepancies between this solution and the Harvard centroid moment tensor, together with the Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and unusual aftershock distribution, suggest that the rupture may not have occurred on a planar fault. A second, strike slip, subevent on a more northerly striking plane is suggested by these data but neither the body wave modeling nor regional broadband recordings show any complexity or late subevents. We relocate the aftershocks using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional velocity inversions. The depth range of the aftershocks (1-10 km) agrees well with the preferred mainshock centroid depth. The aftershocks near the hypocenter suggest a structure dipping toward the NW, which we interpret to be the mainshock fault plane. This structure and the Harper fault, ???15 km to the south appear to have acted as boundaries to the extensive aftershock zone trending NNW-SSE Most of the ML???5 aftershocks, including the two largest (ML6.1 and ML5.7), clustered near the Harper fault and have strike slip mechanisms consistent with motion on this fault and its conjugates. Forward modeling of the GPS data suggests that a reverse slip mainshock, combined with strike slip aftershock faulting in the south, is able to match the observed displacements. The occurrence of this earthquake sequence implies that the level of seismic hazard in the central South Island is greater than previous estimates. Copyright 2000 by the American Geophysical Union.

  15. The southeastern Illinois earthquake of 10 June 1987: the later aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langer, C.J.; Bollinger, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    The 10 June 1987 southeastern Illinois earthquake (mbLg=5.2) was located about 200 km east of St Louis, Missouri, caused minor damage in the epicentral area, had a contiguous felt area of about 433 000 km2, and had a total felt area over 1 million km2. Within 47 hours after the main shock, a 15-station aftershock monitoring network (later expanded to 21 instruments) was installed that recorded more than 100 aftershocks in the folllowing 4-day period. Results from the 56 aftershocks that were well located indicate a compact, cylindrically shaped aftershock volume about 1.7 km long, 0.8 km wide, and with a vertical distribution between about 9 and 12 km in depth. Composite focal mechanism solutions of the aftershocks suggest that the predominant mode of faulting is reverse slip, but some strike-slip type motion occurred similar to the mechanism for the main shock as determined from teleseismic data. The maximum principal compressive stress (P axes) is oriented E-ESE and is subhorizontal in plunge. -from Authors

  16. Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

    PubMed

    McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

    2005-03-24

    East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

  17. Do aftershock probabilities decay with time?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    So, do aftershock probabilities decay with time? Consider a thought experiment in which we are at the time of the mainshock and ask how many aftershocks will occur a day, week, month, year, or even a century from now. First we must decide how large a window to use around each point in time. Let's assume that, as we go further into the future, we are asking a less precise question. Perhaps a day from now means 1 day 10% of a day, a week from now means 1 week 10% of a week, and so on. If we ignore c because it is a small fraction of a day (e.g., Reasenberg and Jones, 1989, hereafter RJ89), and set p = 1 because it is usually close to 1 (its value in the original Omori law), then the rate of earthquakes (K=t) decays at 1=t. If the length of the windows being considered increases proportionally to t, then the number of earthquakes at any time from now is the same because the rate decrease is canceled by the increase in the window duration. Under these conditions we should never think "It's a bit late for this to be an aftershock."

  18. Aftershocks to Philippine quake found within nearby megathrust fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2013-02-01

    On 31 August 2012 a magnitude 7.6 earthquake ruptured deep beneath the sea floor of the Philippine Trench, a powerful intraplate earthquake centered seaward of the plate boundary. In the wake of the main shock, sensors detected a flurry of aftershocks, counting 110 in total. Drawing on seismic wave observations and rupture mechanisms calculated for the aftershocks, Ye et al. found that many were located near the epicenter of the main intraplate quake but at shallower depth; all involved normal faulting. Some shallow thrusting aftershocks were located farther to the west, centered within the potentially dangerous megathrust fault formed by the subduction of the Philippine Sea plate beneath the Philippine microplate, the piece of crust housing the Philippine Islands.

  19. The Ms4.4 2016 Yuncheng, Shanxi, China, Seismic Sequence: Source Characterizations and Tectonic Implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Z.; Riaz, M. S.; Zheng, Y.; Xiong, X.

    2017-12-01

    On 12 March 2016 at 11:14 (Beijing time) , a moderate earthquake with magnitude Ms4.4 struck Yuncheng County, Shanxi Province, Central China. Seismic activity continued with numerous aftershocks, and another event with little smaller magnitude of Ms4.0 occurred on 27 March 2016 at 3:58 as well as a lot of aftershocks followed. Seismic waves from the earthquakes were recorded by a dense local broadband seismic network in Shanxi and its surrounding provinces, enabling detailed the source characterizations of this earthquake sequence. The hypocenters of the Yuncheng earthquake sequence determined by the TomoDD method displayed that the events occurred in the middle of Yuncheng Basin which locates between Weihe Basin and Fenhe Basin, one of renowned active seismic belts in mainland China. The relocation of the aftershocks presented a NNW-SSE orientated distribution, and the earlier aftershocks tended to fault at shallow depths, concentrating at 5 km. After the Ms4.0 event, the aftershocks extended to the SSE direction with deeper focal depths. The focal mechanisms of the mainshock and the biggest aftershock obtained by the CAP (Cut And Paste) method indicated consistent right-lateral strike-slip faults. Since the magnitude was relatively small, no surface rupture associated with this shock sequence had been observed, and no known faults exited around the epicenter, indicating that the causative fault was ambiguous just based on the focal mechanism. According to the aftershocks distribution and the recent GPS results, the ruptured fault was apt to the nodal plane striking at 194°, dipping 79° and rake 151° for Ms4.4 mainshock and 199°/73°/141°, representing strike/dip/rake, for Ms4.0 aftershock. This earthquake sequence was regarded as an adjustment of stress accumulation in the pull-apart Yuncheng Basin, implying that the energy around the boundary faults of the basin has accumulated continuously.

  20. Estimates of velocity structure and source depth using multiple P waves from aftershocks of the 1987 Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills, California, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mori, J.

    1991-01-01

    Event record sections, which are constructed by plotting seismograms from many closely spaced earthquakes recorded on a few stations, show multiple free-surface reflections (PP, PPP, PPPP) of the P wave in the Imperial Valley. The relative timing of these arrivals is used to estimate the strength of the P-wave velocity gradient within the upper 5 km of the sediment layer. Consistent with previous studies, a velocity model with a value of 1.8 km/sec at the surface increasing linearly to 5.8 km/sec at a depth of 5.5 km fits the data well. The relative amplitudes of the P and PP arrivals are used to estimate the source depth for the aftershock distributions of the Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills main shocks. Although the depth determination has large uncertainties, both the Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills aftershock sequencs appear to have similar depth distribution in the range of 4 to 10 km. -Author

  1. The aftershock signature of supershear earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Bouchon, Michel; Karabulut, Hayrullah

    2008-06-06

    Recent studies show that earthquake faults may rupture at speeds exceeding the shear wave velocity of rocks. This supershear rupture produces in the ground a seismic shock wave similar to the sonic boom produced by a supersonic airplane. This shock wave may increase the destruction caused by the earthquake. We report that supershear earthquakes are characterized by a specific pattern of aftershocks: The fault plane itself is remarkably quiet whereas aftershocks cluster off the fault, on secondary structures that are activated by the supershear rupture. The post-earthquake quiescence of the fault shows that friction is relatively uniform over supershear segments, whereas the activation of off-fault structures is explained by the shock wave radiation, which produces high stresses over a wide zone surrounding the fault.

  2. Seismotectonics of the 2014 Chiang Rai, Thailand, earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pananont, P.; Herman, M. W.; Pornsopin, P.; Furlong, K. P.; Habangkaem, S.; Waldhauser, F.; Wongwai, W.; Limpisawad, S.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Wechbunthung, B.

    2017-08-01

    On 5 May 2014, a Mw 6.2 strike-slip earthquake occurred in the Mae Lao region of Chiang Rai province in Thailand. This earthquake took place in a region of known faults and caused substantial damage and injuries, although the region had been previously identified as having a relatively low earthquake hazard. Detailed field reconnaissance and deployment of a dense, temporary, network of broadband seismometers allowed details of the damage and its relationship to seismicity to be analyzed. The aftershock sequence associated with this main shock occurs on two well-defined trends, reflecting the two potential fault planes in earthquake mechanisms for the main shock and the majority of the aftershocks. The damage area was relatively large for an event of this magnitude, but building damage was largely limited to the primary rupture region, while liquefaction and other ground failure are spatially associated with the rupture area and along regional rivers. Stress modeling, combined with the time series and pattern of aftershock activity, leads us to propose that slip near the northern termination of the main shock rupture continued slightly onto a conjugate fault, helping to trigger the distinct pattern of two discrete, conjugate trends of aftershock activity that mirror the kinematics of the main shock fault mechanism.

  3. Aftershock risks such as those demonstrated by the recent events in New Zealand and Japan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shome, Nilesh; Luco, Nicolas; Gerstenberger, Matt; Boyd, Oliver; Field, Edward; Liel, Abbie; van de Lindt, John W.

    2014-01-01

    Recent earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan show that it is important to consider the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks following large magnitude events since the probability of high intensity ground motions from aftershocks, which are capable of causing significant societal impact, can be considerable. This is due to the fact that a mainshock will have many aftershocks, some of which may occur closer to populated areas and may be large enough to cause damage. When a large magnitude event strikes a region, the chance that aftershocks will cause damage can be significant as was observed after the 2011 Tohoku and 2010 Canterbury earthquakes (e.g., damage caused by Mw6.6 April 11, 2011 Fukushima-Hamadori earthquake following Tohoku earthquake or by Mw6.3 February 22, 2011 Christchurch earthquake following Canterbury earthquake). Aftershock events may further damage already damaged buildings, thereby further complicating assessments of risk to the built environment. In this paper, the issue of aftershock risk is addressed by summarizing current research regarding: (1) aftershock hazard, (2) structural fragility/vulnerability before and after the mainshock, and (3) change in risk due to aftershocks.

  4. Aftershock triggering by complete Coulomb stress changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.; Bodin, P.

    2002-01-01

    We examine the correlation between seismicity rate change following the 1992, M7.3, Landers, California, earthquake and characteristics of the complete Coulomb failure stress (CFS) changes (??CFS(t)) that this earthquake generated. At close distances the time-varying "dynamic" portion of the stress change depends on how the rupture develops temporally and spatially and arises from radiated seismic waves and from permanent coseismic fault displacement. The permanent "static" portion (??CFS) depends only on the final coseismic displacement. ??CFS diminishes much more rapidly with distance than the transient, dynamic stress changes. A common interpretation of the strong correlation between ??CFS and aftershocks is that load changes can advance or delay failure. Stress changes may also promote failure by physically altering properties of the fault or its environs. Because it is transient, ??CFS(t) can alter the failure rate only by the latter means. We calculate both ??CFS and the maximum positive value of ??CFS(t) (peak ??CFS(t)) using a reflectivity program. Input parameters are constrained by modeling Landers displacement seismograms. We quantify the correlation between maps of seismicity rate changes and maps of modeled ??CFS and peak ??CFS(t) and find agreement for both models. However, rupture directivity, which does not affect ??CFS, creates larger peak ??CFS(t) values northwest of the main shock. This asymmetry is also observed in seismicity rate changes but not in ??CFS. This result implies that dynamic stress changes are as effective as static stress changes in triggering aftershocks and may trigger earthquakes long after the waves have passed.

  5. 2014 Mainshock-Aftershock Activity Versus Earthquake Swarms in West Bohemia, Czech Republic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jakoubková, Hana; Horálek, Josef; Fischer, Tomáš

    2018-01-01

    A singular sequence of three episodes of ML3.5, 4.4 and 3.6 mainshock-aftershock occurred in the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake-swarm region during 2014. We analysed this activity using the WEBNET data and compared it with the swarms of 1997, 2000, 2008 and 2011 from the perspective of cumulative seismic moment, statistical characteristics, space-time distribution of events, and prevailing focal mechanisms. For this purpose, we improved the scaling relation between seismic moment M0 and local magnitude ML by WEBNET. The total seismic moment released during 2014 episodes (M_{0tot}≈ 1.58× 10^{15} Nm) corresponded to a single ML4.6+ event and was comparable to M_{0tot} of the swarms of 2000, 2008 and 2011. We inferred that the ML4.8 earthquake is the maximum expected event in Nový Kostel (NK), the main focal zone. Despite the different character of the 2014 sequence and the earthquake swarms, the magnitude-frequency distributions (MFDs) show the b-values ≈ 1 and probability density functions (PDFs) of the interevent times indicate the similar event rate of the individual swarms and 2014 activity. Only the a-value (event-productivity) in the MFD of the 2014 sequence is significantly lower than those of the swarms. A notable finding is a significant acceleration of the seismic moment release in each subsequent activity starting from the 2000 swarm to the 2014 sequence, which may indicate an alteration from the swarm-like to the mainshocks-aftershock character of the seismicity. The three mainshocks are located on a newly activated fault segment/asperity (D in out notation) of the NK zone situated in the transition area among fault segments A, B, C, which hosted the 2000, 2008 and 2011 swarms. The segment D appears to be predisposed to an oblique-thrust faulting while strike-slip faulting is typical of segments A, B and C. In conclusion, we propose a basic segment scheme of the NK zone which should be improved gradually.

  6. Investigation of the high-frequency attenuation parameter, κ (kappa), from aftershocks of the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Neighbors, Corrie; Liao, E. J.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Funning, G. J.; Chung, A. I.; Lawrence, J. F.; Christensen, C. M.; Miller, M.; Belmonte, A.; Sepulveda, H. H. Andrés

    2014-01-01

    The Bío Bío region of Chile experienced a vigorous aftershock sequence following the 2010 February 27 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake. The immediate aftershock sequence was captured by two temporary seismic deployments: the Quake Catcher Network Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (QCN RAMP) and the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology CHile Aftershock Mobilization Program (IRIS CHAMP). Here, we use moderate to large aftershocks (ML ≥ 4.0) occurring between 2010 March 1 and June 30 recorded by QCN RAMP and IRIS CHAMP stations to determine the spectral decay parameter, kappa (κ). First, we compare waveforms and κ estimates from the lower-resolution QCN stations to the IRIS CHAMP stations to ensure the QCN data are of sufficient quality. We find that QCN stations provide reasonable estimates of κ in comparison to traditional seismic sensors and provide valuable additional observations of local ground motion variation. Using data from both deployments, we investigate the variation in κ for the region to determine if κ is influenced primarily by local geological structure, path attenuation, or source properties (e.g. magnitude, mechanism and depth). Estimates of κ for the Bío Bío region range from 0.0022 to 0.0704 s with a mean of 0.0295 s and are in good agreement with κ values previously reported for similar tectonic environments. κ correlates with epicentral distance and, to a lesser degree, with source magnitude. We find little to no correlation between the site kappa, κ0, and mapped geology, although we were only able to compare the data to a low-resolution map of surficial geology. These results support an increasing number of studies that suggest κobservations can be attributed to a combination of source, path and site properties; additionally, measured κ are often highly scattered making it difficult to separate the contribution from each of these factors. Thus, our results suggest that contributions from the site

  7. Seismo-Tectonics of the 2014 Chiang Rai, Thailand, Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furlong, K. P.; Pananont, P.; Herman, M. W.; Waldhauser, F.; Pornsopin, P.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.

    2016-12-01

    On 5 May 2014, a Mw 6.2 strike-slip earthquake struck in the Mae Lao region of Chiang Rai province in Thailand. This earthquake occurred in a region of known faults, but identified as relatively low earthquake hazard, and caused substantial damage and injuries. Detailed field reconnaissance and deployment of a dense, temporary seismometer network allowed details of the damage and its relationship to seismicity to be analyzed. The aftershock sequence associated with this mainshock occurs on two well-defined trends, reflecting the two potential fault planes in earthquake focal mechanisms for the mainshock and the majority of the aftershocks. The damage area was relatively large for an event of this magnitude, but primarily occurs within the primary rupture (aftershock) region or along regional rivers with soils susceptible to liquefaction of other ground failure. Stress modeling combined with the time-series and pattern of aftershock activity lead us to propose that the initial mainshock rupture continued slightly onto its conjugate faults near its northern termination, helping to trigger the distinct pattern of two discrete, conjugate trends of aftershock activity that mirror the kinematics of the mainshock fault mechanism. Although this earthquake occurred in a region of known faults, it cannot be directly linked to a previously mapped structure. This coupled with the substantial damage from the event indicates that there is potentially a higher earthquake hazard in northern and central Thailand than previously recognized.

  8. Along-strike Variations in the Himalayas Illuminated by the Aftershock Sequence of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake Using the NAMASTE Local Seismic Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendoza, M.; Ghosh, A.; Karplus, M. S.; Nabelek, J.; Sapkota, S. N.; Adhikari, L. B.; Klemperer, S. L.; Velasco, A. A.

    2016-12-01

    As a result of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, more than 8,000 people were killed from a combination of infrastructure failure and triggered landslides. This earthquake produced 4 m of peak co-seismic slip as the fault ruptured 130 km east under densely populated cities, such as Kathmandu. To understand earthquake dynamics in this part of the Himalayas and help mitigate similar future calamities by the next destructive event, it is imperative to study earthquake activities in detail and improve our understanding of the source and structural complexities. In response to the Gorkha event, multiple institutions developed and deployed a 10-month long dense seismic network called NAMASTE. It blanketed a 27,650 km2 area, mainly covering the rupture area of the Gorkha earthquake, in order to capture the dynamic sequence of aftershock behavior. The network consisted of a mix of 45 broadband, short-period, and strong motion sensors, with an average spacing of 20 km. From the first 6 months of data, starting approximately 1.5 after the mainshock, we develop a robust catalog containing over 3,000 precise earthquake locations, and local magnitudes that range between 0.3 and 4.9. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness of 1.5, and an overall low b-value of 0.78. Using the HypoDD algorithm, we relocate earthquake hypocenters with high precision, and thus illustrate the fault geometry down to depths of 25 km where we infer the location of the gently-dipping Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). Above the MFT, the aftershocks illuminate complex structure produced by relatively steeply dipping faults. Interestingly, we observe sharp along-strike change in the seismicity pattern. The eastern part of the aftershock area is significantly more active than the western part. The change in seismicity may reflect structural and/or frictional lateral heterogeneity in this part of the Himalayan fault system. Such along-strike variations play an important role in rupture complexities and

  9. On the choice of the functional form of the aftershocks decay equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gasperini, P.; Lolli, B.

    2003-04-01

    To infer the optimal form of the rate equation describing the decay of aftershock sequences, we analyzed the correlation among parameter estimates made for New Zealand (Eberhard-Phillips, 1998) and Italy (Lolli and Gasperini, 2003), for the simple model proposed by Reasenberg and Jones (1989) λ(t)=10a+b(Mm-Mmin)over(t+c)^p} We found significant correlations between the sequence productivity parameter a and all other ones (p, c and b) and between p and c. At odd with previous findings (Guo and Ogata, 1995; 1997) we did not find instead correlation between b and p. We verified that the explicit inclusion in the formula of the time decay normalization integral removes the correlation of a with both parameters p and c. We also found, separately for both regions, that assuming the linear coefficient of main shock magnitude M_m about 2/3b makes parameter a also independent of b. The a parameter of the resulting rate equation λ(t)= 10a+2/3bMm-bMmin/ (t+c)^pint_ST(t+c)-pdt being almost independent of the other ones, can be reliably considered the expressions of a peculiar property of the seismogenic process. Thus we can infer that the new equation could be more appropriate than the previous one to predict sequence behavior in different areas. This formulation has also been applied to more sophisticated models of the epidemic type (ETAS), letting the coefficient of the main shock magnitude to vary freely. Some preliminary experiments give estimates close to 1/2b for this parameter.

  10. Tuning critical failure with viscoelasticity: How aftershocks inhibit criticality in an analytical mean field model of fracture.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baro Urbea, J.; Davidsen, J.

    2017-12-01

    The hypothesis of critical failure relates the presence of an ultimate stability point in the structural constitutive equation of materials to a divergence of characteristic scales in the microscopic dynamics responsible of deformation. Avalanche models involving critical failure have determined universality classes in different systems: from slip events in crystalline and amorphous materials to the jamming of granular media or the fracture of brittle materials. However, not all empirical failure processes exhibit the trademarks of critical failure. As an example, the statistical properties of ultrasonic acoustic events recorded during the failure of porous brittle materials are stationary, except for variations in the activity rate that can be interpreted in terms of aftershock and foreshock activity (J. Baró et al., PRL 2013).The rheological properties of materials introduce dissipation, usually reproduced in atomistic models as a hardening of the coarse-grained elements of the system. If the hardening is associated to a relaxation process the same mechanism is able to generate temporal correlations. We report the analytic solution of a mean field fracture model exemplifying how criticality and temporal correlations are tuned by transient hardening. We provide a physical meaning to the conceptual model by deriving the constitutive equation from the explicit representation of the transient hardening in terms of a generalized viscoelasticity model. The rate of 'aftershocks' is controlled by the temporal evolution of the viscoelastic creep. At the quasistatic limit, the moment release is invariant to rheology. Therefore, the lack of criticality is explained by the increase of the activity rate close to failure, i.e. 'foreshocks'. Finally, the avalanche propagation can be reinterpreted as a pure mathematical problem in terms of a stochastic counting process. The statistical properties depend only on the distance to a critical point, which is universal for any

  11. The global aftershock zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, Thomas E.; Margaret Segou,; Warner Marzocchi,

    2014-01-01

    The aftershock zone of each large (M ≥ 7) earthquake extends throughout the shallows of planet Earth. Most aftershocks cluster near the mainshock rupture, but earthquakes send out shivers in the form of seismic waves, and these temporary distortions are large enough to trigger other earthquakes at global range. The aftershocks that happen at great distance from their mainshock are often superposed onto already seismically active regions, making them difficult to detect and understand. From a hazard perspective we are concerned that this dynamic process might encourage other high magnitude earthquakes, and wonder if a global alarm state is warranted after every large mainshock. From an earthquake process perspective we are curious about the physics of earthquake triggering across the magnitude spectrum. In this review we build upon past studies that examined the combined global response to mainshocks. Such compilations demonstrate significant rate increases during, and immediately after (~ 45 min) M > 7.0 mainshocks in all tectonic settings and ranges. However, it is difficult to find strong evidence for M > 5 rate increases during the passage of surface waves in combined global catalogs. On the other hand, recently published studies of individual large mainshocks associate M > 5 triggering at global range that is delayed by hours to days after surface wave arrivals. The longer the delay between mainshock and global aftershock, the more difficult it is to establish causation. To address these questions, we review the response to 260 M ≥ 7.0 shallow (Z ≤ 50 km) mainshocks in 21 global regions with local seismograph networks. In this way we can examine the detailed temporal and spatial response, or lack thereof, during passing seismic waves, and over the 24 h period after their passing. We see an array of responses that can involve immediate and widespread seismicity outbreaks, delayed and localized earthquake clusters, to no response at all. About 50% of the

  12. Tsunami waves generated by dynamically triggered aftershocks of the 2010 Haiti earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ten Brink, U. S.; Wei, Y.; Fan, W.; Miller, N. C.; Granja, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Dynamically-triggered aftershocks, thought to be set off by the passage of surface waves, are currently not considered in tsunami warnings, yet may produce enough seafloor deformation to generate tsunamis on their own, as judged from new findings about the January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake tsunami in the Caribbean Sea. This tsunami followed the Mw7.0 Haiti mainshock, which resulted from a complex rupture along the north shore of Tiburon Peninsula, not beneath the Caribbean Sea. The mainshock, moreover, had a mixed strike-slip and thrust focal mechanism. There were no recorded aftershocks in the Caribbean Sea, only small coastal landslides and rock falls on the south shore of Tiburon Peninsula. Nevertheless, a tsunami was recorded on deep-sea DART buoy 42407 south of the Dominican Republic and on the Santo Domingo tide gauge, and run-ups of ≤3 m were observed along a 90-km-long stretch of the SE Haiti coast. Three dynamically-triggered aftershocks south of Haiti have been recently identified within the coda of the mainshock (<200 s) by analyzing P wave arrivals recorded by dense seismic arrays, parsing the arrivals into 20-s-long stacks, and back-projecting the arrivals to the vicinity of the main shock (50-300 km). Two of the aftershocks, coming 20-40 s and 40-60 s after the mainshock, plot along NW-SE-trending submarine ridges in the Caribbean Sea south of Haiti. The third event, 120-140 s was located along the steep eastern slope of Bahoruco Peninsula, which is delineated by a normal fault. Forward tsunami models show that the arrival times of the DART buoy and tide gauge times are best fit by the earliest of the three aftershocks, with a Caribbean source 60 km SW of the mainshock rupture zone. Preliminary inversion of the DART buoy time series for fault locations and orientations confirms the location of the first source, but requires an additional unidentified source closer to shore 40 km SW of the mainshock rupture zone. This overall agreement between

  13. An experimental approach to non - extensive statistical physics and Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) modeling. The case of triaxially deformed sandstones using acoustic emissions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrianaki, K.; Vallianatos, F.; Sammonds, P. R.; Ross, G. J.

    2014-12-01

    Fracturing is the most prevalent deformation mechanism in rocks deformed in the laboratory under simulated upper crustal conditions. Fracturing produces acoustic emissions (AE) at the laboratory scale and earthquakes on a crustal scale. The AE technique provides a means to analyse microcracking activity inside the rock volume and since experiments can be performed under confining pressure to simulate depth of burial, AE can be used as a proxy for natural processes such as earthquakes. Experimental rock deformation provides us with several ways to investigate time-dependent brittle deformation. Two main types of experiments can be distinguished: (1) "constant strain rate" experiments in which stress varies as a result of deformation, and (2) "creep" experiments in which deformation and deformation rate vary over time as a result of an imposed constant stress. We conducted constant strain rate experiments on air-dried Darley Dale sandstone samples in a variety of confining pressures (30MPa, 50MPa, 80MPa) and in water saturated samples with 20 MPa initial pore fluid pressure. The results from these experiments used to determine the initial loading in the creep experiments. Non-extensive statistical physics approach was applied to the AE data in order to investigate the spatio-temporal pattern of cracks close to failure. A more detailed study was performed for the data from the creep experiments. When axial stress is plotted against time we obtain the trimodal creep curve. Calculation of Tsallis entropic index q is performed to each stage of the curve and the results are compared with the ones from the constant strain rate experiments. The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS) is also applied to each stage of the creep curve and the ETAS parameters are calculated. We investigate whether these parameters are constant across all stages of the curve, or whether there are interesting patterns of variation. This research has been co-funded by the European Union

  14. Foreshocks and aftershocks locations of the 2014 Pisagua, N. Chile earthquake: history of a megathrust earthquake nucleation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Rietbrock, Andreas; Tavera, Hernando; Ryder, Isabelle; Ruiz, Sergio; Thomas, Reece; De Angelis, Silvio; Bondoux, Francis

    2015-04-01

    The April 2014 Mw 8.1 Pisagua earthquake occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap: a region of the South American subduction zone lying between Arica city and the Mejillones Peninsula. It is believed that this part of the subduction zone has not experienced a large earthquake since 1877. Thanks to the identification of this seismic gap, the north of Chile was well instrumented before the Pisagua earthquake, including the Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC) network and the Chilean local network installed by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (CSN). These instruments were able to record the full foreshock and aftershock sequences, allowing a unique opportunity to study the nucleation process of large megathrust earthquakes. To improve azimuthal coverage of the Pisagua seismic sequence, after the earthquake, in collaboration with the Instituto Geofisico del Peru (IGP) we installed a temporary seismic network in south of Peru. The network comprised 12 short-period stations located in the coastal area between Moquegua and Tacna and they were operative from 1st May 2014. We also installed three stations on the slopes of the Ticsiani volcano to monitor any possible change in volcanic activity following the Pisagua earthquake. In this work we analysed the continuous seismic data recorded by CSN and IPOC networks from 1 March to 30 June to obtain the catalogue of the sequence, including foreshocks and aftershocks. Using an automatic algorithm based in STA/LTA we obtained the picks for P and S waves. Association in time and space defined the events and computed an initial location using Hypo71 and the 1D local velocity model. More than 11,000 events were identified with this method for the whole period, but we selected the best resolved events that include more than 7 observed arrivals with at least 2 S picks of them, to relocate these events using NonLinLoc software. For the main events of the sequence we carefully estimate event locations and we obtained

  15. A high-resolution aftershock seismicity image of the 2002 Sultandaği-Çay earthquake (Mw = 6.2), Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ergin, Mehmet; Aktar, Mustafa; Özalaybey, Serdar; Tapirdamaz, Mustafa C.; Selvi, Oguz; Tarancioglu, Adil

    2009-10-01

    A moderate-size earthquake (Mw = 6.2) occurred on 3 February 2002 (07:11:28 GMT) in the Sultandağı-Çay region of southwest Turkey. The mainshock was followed by a strong aftershock of Mw = 6.0 just 2 h after the mainshock, at 09:26:49 GMT. A temporary seismic network of 27 vertical component seismometers was installed to monitor aftershock activity. One thousand sixty nine aftershocks (0.2 < ML < 3.3) were recorded during the period from 5 to 10 February 2002. We analyzed the P and S arrival times and P wave first motion data to obtain high-quality hypocenters and focal mechanisms, which revealed fine details of the fault zone. We infer that the mainshock has ruptured a segment of the Sultandağ Fault Zone that is approximately 37 km long and 7 km wide at depth. The average slip over the rupture plane during the mainshock is estimated to be 32 cm. The linear distribution of the aftershocks and the location of the mainshock epicenter suggest that rupture has initiated in the eastern bending of the fault and propagated unilaterally to the west. The majority of fault plane solutions indicate E-W to ESE-WNW striking oblique-normal faulting mechanisms with an average dip angle of 62° N ± 10° . The high-resolution aftershock seismicity image also shows that faulting involved a complex array of synthetic and possibly antithetic structures during the evolution of the aftershock sequence. The steady increase of the b value towards the west implies that the highest moment release of the mainshock occurred to the west of the epicenter. The study clearly shows the activation of the WNW-ESE-trending Sultandağ Fault Zone along the southern margin of the Akşehir-Afyon Graben (AAG). The westernmost end of the aftershock activity corresponds to a structurally complex zone distinct from the main rupture. It is characterized by both ENE-WSW- and NNE-SSW-trending oblique-slip normal faulting mechanisms, the latter being associated with the NNE-SSW-trending Karamık Graben. The

  16. Foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 M8.1 Iquique, northern Chile, megathrust earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soto, Hugo; Sippl, Christian; Schurr, Bernd; Asch, Günter; Tilmann, Frederik; Comte, Diana; Ruiz, Sergio; Oncken, Onno

    2017-04-01

    The M8.1 2014 Iquique earthquake broke a central piece of the long-standing, >500 km long northern Chile seismic gap. The Iquique earthquake sequence started off with a M6.7 thrust event presumably in the upper plate seaward of the Chilean coastline. Deformation was quickly transferred onto the megathrust with three more events of M>6 until it culminated in the mainshock that broke a compact asperity with possibly up to 12 m of slip two weeks later. The mainshock was followed by vigorous aftershock sequence, including a M7.7 event just south of the main slip patch approx. two days later. The whole sequence of events was well recorded by the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC). The IPOC network was complemented quickly after the first large foreshock by 60 additional temporary seismic stations deployed by the University of Chile and the German Research Centre for Geosciences - GFZ. Processing the continuous data with an automated multi-step process for event detection, association and phase picking, we located more than 25,000 events for one month preceding and nine months following the Iquique mainshock. Whereas the foreshocks skirt around the updip limit of the mainshock asperity, the aftershocks agglomerate in two belts, one updip and one downdip of the main asperity offshore the Chilean coast. The deepest events on the plate interface reach 65 km depth in two separated clusters under the coastal cordillera, which show a significant difference in dip, indicating strong long-wavelength slab topography or a slab tear. We will also analyze upper- and deeper intra-plate seismicity and in particular its changes following the Iquique mainshock.

  17. The 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Sequence, Baja California, Mexico and Southernmost California, USA: Active Seismotectonics along the Mexican Pacific Margin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauksson, Egill; Stock, Joann; Hutton, Kate; Yang, Wenzheng; Vidal-Villegas, J. Antonio; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2011-08-01

    The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence started with a few foreshocks in March 2010, and a second sequence of 15 foreshocks of M > 2 (up to M4.4) that occurred during the 24 h preceding the mainshock. The foreshocks occurred along a north-south trend near the mainshock epicenter. The M w 7.2 mainshock on April 4 exhibited complex faulting, possibly starting with a ~M6 normal faulting event, followed ~15 s later by the main event, which included simultaneous normal and right-lateral strike-slip faulting. The aftershock zone extends for 120 km from the south end of the Elsinore fault zone north of the US-Mexico border almost to the northern tip of the Gulf of California. The waveform-relocated aftershocks form two abutting clusters, each about 50 km long, as well as a 10 km north-south aftershock zone just north of the epicenter of the mainshock. Even though the Baja California data are included, the magnitude of completeness and the hypocentral errors increase gradually with distance south of the international border. The spatial distribution of large aftershocks is asymmetric with five M5+ aftershocks located to the south of the mainshock, and only one M5.7 aftershock, but numerous smaller aftershocks to the north. Further, the northwest aftershock cluster exhibits complex faulting on both northwest and northeast planes. Thus, the aftershocks also express a complex pattern of stress release along strike. The overall rate of decay of the aftershocks is similar to the rate of decay of a generic California aftershock sequence. In addition, some triggered seismicity was recorded along the Elsinore and San Jacinto faults to the north, but significant northward migration of aftershocks has not occurred. The synthesis of the El Mayor-Cucapah sequence reveals transtensional regional tectonics, including the westward growth of the Mexicali Valley and the transfer of Pacific-North America plate motion from the Gulf of California in the south into the southernmost San

  18. Aftershocks of the western Argentina (Caucete) earthquake of 23 November 1977: some tectonic implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langer, C.J.; Bollinger, G.A.

    1988-01-01

    An aftershock survey, using a network of eight portable and two permanent seismographs, was conducted for the western Argentina (Caucete) earthquake (MS 7.3) of November 23, 1977. Monitoring began December 6, almost 2 weeks after the main shock and continued for 11 days. The data set includes 185 aftershock hypocenters that range in the depth from near surface to more than 30 km. The spatial distribution of those events occupied a volume of about 100 km long ??50 km wide ??30 km thick. The volumnar nature of the aftershock distribution is interpreted to be a result of a bimodal distribution of foci that define east- and west-dipping planar zones. Efforts to select which of those zones was associated with the causal faulting include special attention to the determination of the mainshock focal depth and dislocation theory modeling of the coseismic surface deformation in the epicentral region. Our focal depth (25-35 km) and modeling studies lead us to prefer an east-dipping plane as causal. A previous interpretation by other investigators used a shallower focal depth (17 km) and similar modeling calculations in choosing a west-dipping plane. Our selection of the east-dipping plane is physically more appealing because it places fault initiation at the base of the crustal seismogenic layer (rather than in the middle of that layer) which requires fault propagation to be updip (rather than downdip). ?? 1988.

  19. Did stress triggering cause the large off-fault aftershocks of the 25 March 1998 MW=8.1 Antarctic plate earthquake?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.

    2000-01-01

    The 1998 Antarctic plate earthquake produced clusters of aftershocks (MW ??? 6.4) up to 80 km from the fault rupture and up to 100 km beyond the end of the rupture. Because the mainshock occurred far from the nearest plate boundary and the nearest recorded earthquake, it is unusually isolated from the stress perturbations caused by other earthquakes, making it a good candidate for stress transfer analysis despite the absence of near-field observations. We tested whether the off-fault aftershocks lie in regions brought closer to Coulomb failure by the main rupture. We evaluated four published source models for the main rupture. In fourteen tests using different aftershocks sets and allowing the rupture sources to be shifted within their uncertainties, 6 were significant at ??? 99% confidence, 3 at > 95% confidence, and 5 were not significant (< 95% level). For the 9 successful tests, the stress at the site of the aftershocks was typically increased by 1-2 bars (0.1-0.2 MPa). Thus the Antarctic plate event, together with the 1992 MW=7.3 Landers and its MW=6.5 Big Bear aftershock 40 km from the main fault, supply evidence that small stress changes might indeed trigger large earthquakes far from the main fault rupture.

  20. Geophysical data reveal the crustal structure of the Alaska Range orogen within the aftershock zone of the Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fisher, M.A.; Ratchkovski, N.A.; Nokleberg, W.J.; Pellerin, L.; Glen, J.M.G.

    2004-01-01

    Geophysical information, including deep-crustal seismic reflection, magnetotelluric (MT), gravity, and magnetic data, cross the aftershock zone of the 3 November 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake. These data and aftershock seismicity, jointly interpreted, reveal the crustal structure of the right-lateral-slip Denali fault and the eastern Alaska Range orogen, as well as the relationship between this structure and seismicity. North of the Denali fault, strong seismic reflections from within the Alaska Range orogen show features that dip as steeply as 25?? north and extend downward to depths between 20 and 25 km. These reflections reveal crustal structures, probably ductile shear zones, that most likely formed during the Late Cretaceous, but these structures appear to be inactive, having produced little seismicity during the past 20 years. Furthermore, seismic reflections mainly dip north, whereas alignments in aftershock hypocenters dip south. The Denali fault is nonreflective, but modeling of MT, gravity, and magnetic data suggests that the Denali fault dips steeply to vertically. However, in an alternative structural model, the Denali fault is defined by one of the reflection bands that dips to the north and flattens into the middle crust of the Alaska Range orogen. Modeling of MT data indicates a rock body, having low electrical resistivity (>10 ??-m), that lies mainly at depths greater than 10 km, directly beneath aftershocks of the Denali fault earthquake. The maximum depth of aftershocks along the Denali fault is 10 km. This shallow depth may arise from a higher-than-normal geothermal gradient. Alternatively, the low electrical resistivity of deep rocks along the Denali fault may be associated with fluids that have weakened the lower crust and helped determine the depth extent of the after-shock zone.

  1. Aftershock Seismicity of the 27 February 2010 Maule Earthquake and its Relation to Postseismic Displacements from GPS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, D.; Moreno, M. S.; Tilmann, F. J.; Baez, J.; Barrientos, S. E.; Beck, S. L.; Bernard, P.; Bevis, M. G.; Brooks, B. A.; Contreras Reyes, E.; Heit, B.; Methe, P.; Tassara, A.; Vilotte, J.; Vigny, C.

    2011-12-01

    On 27 February 2010 the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in Central Chile ruptured a seismic gap where significant strain had accumulated since 1835. Shortly after the mainshock a dense network of temporary seismic landstations was installed along the whole rupture zone in order to capture the aftershock activity. We present the aftershock distribution and first motion polarity focal mechanisms based on automatic detection algorithms and picking engines. Processing the seismic data between 15 March and 30 September 2010 from stations from IRIS, IPGP, Caltech and GFZ, we determined 19,908~hypocentres with magnitudes Mw between 1 and 6.2. Seismic activity occurs in six groups: 1.) Normal faulting outer rise events 2.) A shallow group of plate interface seismicity apparent at 25-35 km depth and 50-120 km distance to the trench. Along strike, the aftershocks occur largely within the zone of co-seismic slip but extend ~50 km further north. Along dip, the events are either within the zone of co-seismic slip, or downdip from it, depending on the slip model used. 3.) A third band of seismicity is observed further downdip at 40-50 km depth and further inland at 150-160 km trench perpendicular distance, with mostly shallow dipping thrust focal mechanisms indicating rupture of the plate interface significantly downdip of the co-seismic rupture, and presumably above the intersection of the continental Moho with the plate interface. 4.) A deep group of intermediate depth events between 80 to 120 km depth are present north of 36°S. 5.) The magmatic arc exhibits a small amount of crustal seismicity but does not appear to show significantly enhanced activity after the mainshock 6.) Pronounced crustal aftershock activity is found in the region of Pichilemu (~34.5°S). The time-series of postseismic deformation analyzed here show rapid transient deformation immediately following the Maule earthquake. We examine the relation between the spatial-temporal properties of the aftershock

  2. Rupture processes of the 2013-2014 Minab earthquake sequence, Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kintner, Jonas A.; Ammon, Charles J.; Cleveland, K. Michael; Herman, Matthew

    2018-06-01

    We constrain epicentroid locations, magnitudes and depths of moderate-magnitude earthquakes in the 2013-2014 Minab sequence using surface-wave cross-correlations, surface-wave spectra and teleseismic body-wave modelling. We estimate precise relative locations of 54 Mw ≥ 3.8 earthquakes using 48 409 teleseismic, intermediate-period Rayleigh and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements. To reduce significant regional biases in our relative locations, we shift the relative locations to align the Mw 6.2 main-shock centroid to a location derived from an independent InSAR fault model. Our relocations suggest that the events lie along a roughly east-west trend that is consistent with the faulting geometry in the GCMT catalogue. The results support previous studies that suggest the sequence consists of left-lateral strain release, but better defines the main-shock fault length and shows that most of the Mw ≥ 5.0 aftershocks occurred on one or two similarly oriented structures. We also show that aftershock activity migrated westwards along strike, away from the main shock, suggesting that Coulomb stress transfer played a role in the fault failure. We estimate the magnitudes of the relocated events using surface-wave cross-correlation amplitudes and find good agreement with the GCMT moment magnitudes for the larger events and underestimation of small-event size by catalogue MS. In addition to clarifying details of the Minab sequence, the results demonstrate that even in tectonically complex regions, relative relocation using teleseismic surface waves greatly improves the precision of relative earthquake epicentroid locations and can facilitate detailed tectonic analyses of remote earthquake sequences.

  3. Characteristics of Gyeongju earthquake, moment magnitude 5.5 and relative relocations of aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, ChangSoo; Son, Minkyung

    2017-04-01

    There is low seismicity in the korea peninsula. According historical record in the historic book, There were several strong earthquake in the korea peninsula. Especially in Gyeongju of capital city of the Silla dynasty, few strong earthquakes caused the fatalities of several hundreds people 1,300 years ago and damaged the houses and make the wall of castles collapsed. Moderate strong earthquake of moment magnitude 5.5 hit the city in September 12, 2016. Over 1000 aftershocks were detected. The numbers of occurrences of aftershock over time follows omori's law well. The distribution of relative locations of 561 events using clustering aftershocks by cross-correlation between P and S waveform of the events showed the strike NNE 25 30 o and dip 68 74o of fault plane to cause the earthquake matched with the fault plane solution of moment tensor inversion well. The depth of range of the events is from 11km to 16km. The width of distribution of event locations is about 5km length. The direction of maximum horizontal stress by inversion of stress for the moment solutions of main event and large aftershocks is similar to the known maximum horizontal stress direction of the korea peninsula. The relation curves between moment magnitude and local magnitude of aftershocks shows that the moment magnitude increases slightly more for events of size less than 2.0

  4. High Frequency Recordings of the Parkfield M=6 and its Aftershocks in the 1.1 km Deep SAFOD Pilot Hole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malin, P.; Shalev, E.; Chavarria, A.

    2004-12-01

    Seismic waves from the September 28th Parkfield event and its aftershocks were recorded by the SAFOD Pilot Hole seismic array. This array currently consists of seven levels of 3-component 15 Hz seismometers within the Salinian granite. Its sensors are spaced at 40 m intervals between depths of 856 to 1156 meters below ground. Our deep borehole recordings with high signal-to-noise ratios has allowed us to explore the high frequency content and distribution of both the main event and a large number of aftershocks not detected by the local surface network. We have determined the spectral characteristics for events of different sizes and have related them to their source characteristics. Events close to the PH array contain surprisingly similar distributions of high frequency energy irrespective of their seismic moment. For example, the seismic waves of nearly co-located M~2 and M~5 aftershocks have instrument-corrected corner frequencies that are different by only a few Hz: ~58 Hz versus ~50 Hz. The M~5 can thus be thought of as having broken numerous small but strong fault patches - a model previously suggested by others based on both theoretical and observational grounds. The M~6, which was much further away than these aftershocks, also contains high frequency signals, not quite, but almost, to the same degree. Our results suggest that strong attenuation of high frequency waves in the fault zone area, as well as in shallow weathering layers, prevents more distantly located instruments from recording a complete picture of the actual radiation. Further, in keeping with this suggestion, we have found that, at least for the first nine minutes after the main event, the number of aftershocks observed at the PH is almost ten times higher than that reported in the NCEDC catalog. The rate and size of these events does not fit previous notions of aftershock activity, but may fit with our suggested heterogeneous fault patch and near-source attenuation models.

  5. A model of return intervals between earthquake events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Yu; Chechkin, Aleksei; Sokolov, Igor M.; Kantz, Holger

    2016-06-01

    Application of the diffusion entropy analysis and the standard deviation analysis to the time sequence of the southern California earthquake events from 1976 to 2002 uncovered scaling behavior typical for anomalous diffusion. However, the origin of such behavior is still under debate. Some studies attribute the scaling behavior to the correlations in the return intervals, or waiting times, between aftershocks or mainshocks. To elucidate a nature of the scaling, we applied specific reshulffling techniques to eliminate correlations between different types of events and then examined how it affects the scaling behavior. We demonstrate that the origin of the scaling behavior observed is the interplay between mainshock waiting time distribution and the structure of clusters of aftershocks, but not correlations in waiting times between the mainshocks and aftershocks themselves. Our findings are corroborated by numerical simulations of a simple model showing a very similar behavior. The mainshocks are modeled by a renewal process with a power-law waiting time distribution between events, and aftershocks follow a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with the rate governed by Omori's law.

  6. Statistical discrimination of induced and tectonic earthquake sequences in Central and Eastern US based on waveform detected catalogs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, X.; Daniels, C.; Smith, E.; Peng, Z.; Chen, X.; Wagner, L. S.; Fischer, K. M.; Hawman, R. B.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2001, the number of M>3 earthquakes increased significantly in Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), likely due to waste-water injection, also known as "induced earthquakes" [Ellsworth, 2013]. Because induced earthquakes are driven by short-term external forcing and hence may behave like earthquake swarms, which are not well characterized by branching point-process models, such as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model [Ogata, 1988]. In this study we focus on the 02/15/2014 M4.1 South Carolina and the 06/16/2014 M4.3 Oklahoma earthquakes, which likely represent intraplate tectonic and induced events, respectively. For the South Carolina event, only one M3.0 aftershock is identified by the ANSS catalog, which may be caused by a lack of low-magnitude events in this catalog. We apply a recently developed matched filter technique to detect earthquakes from 02/08/2014 to 02/22/2014 around the epicentral region. 15 seismic stations (both permanent and temporary USArray networks) within 100 km of the mainshock are used for detection. The mainshock and aftershock are used as templates for the initial detection. Newly detected events are employed as new templates, and the same detection procedure repeats until no new event can be added. Overall we have identified more than 10 events, including one foreshock occurred ~11 min before the M4.1 mainshock. However, the numbers of aftershocks are still much less than predicted with the modified Bath's law. For the Oklahoma event, we use 1270 events from the ANSS catalog and 182 events from a relocated catalog as templates to scan through continuous recordings 3 days before to 7 days after the mainshock. 12 seismic stations within the vicinity of the mainshock are included in the study. After obtaining more complete catalogs for both sequences, we plan to compare the statistical parameters (e.g., b, a, K, and p values) between the two sequences, as well as their spatial-temporal migration pattern, which may

  7. The 2008 Wells, Nevada Earthquake Sequence: Application of Subspace Detection and Multiple Event Relocation Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nealy, J. L.; Benz, H.; Hayes, G. P.; Bergman, E.; Barnhart, W. D.

    2016-12-01

    On February 21, 2008 at 14:16:02 (UTC), Wells, Nevada experienced a Mw 6.0 earthquake, the largest earthquake in the state within the past 50 years. Here, we re-analyze in detail the spatiotemporal variations of the foreshock and aftershock sequence and compare the distribution of seismicity to a recent slip model based on inversion of InSAR observations. A catalog of earthquakes for the time period of February 1, 2008 through August 31, 2008 was derived from a combination of arrival time picks using a kurtosis detector (primarily P arrival times), subspace detector (primarily S arrival times), associating the combined pick dataset, and applying multiple event relocation techniques using the 19 closest USArray Transportable Array stations, permanent regional seismic monitoring stations in Nevada and Utah, and temporary stations deployed for an aftershock study. We were able to detect several thousand earthquakes in the months following the mainshock as well as several foreshocks in the days leading up to the event. We reviewed the picks for the largest 986 earthquakes and relocated them using the Hypocentroidal Decomposition (HD) method. The HD technique provides both relative locations for the individual earthquakes and an absolute location for the earthquake cluster, resulting in absolute locations of the events in the cluster having minimal bias from unknown Earth structure. A subset of these "calibrated" earthquake locations that spanned the duration of the sequence and had small uncertainties in location were used as prior constraints within a second relocation effort using the entire dataset and the Bayesloc approach. Accurate locations (to within 2 km) were obtained using Bayesloc for 1,952 of the 2,157 events associated over the seven-month period of the study. The final catalog of earthquake hypocenters indicates that the aftershocks extend for about 20 km along the strike of the ruptured fault. The aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the

  8. Aftershock locations and rupture characteristics of the 2006 May 27, Yogyakarta-Indonesia earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irwan, M.; Ando, M.; Kimata, F.; Tadokoro, K.; Nakamichi, H.; Muto, D.; Okuda, T.; Hasanuddin, A.; Mipi A., K.; Setyadji, B.; Andreas, H.; Gamal, M.; Arif, R.

    2006-12-01

    A strong earthquake (M6.3) rocked the Bantul district, south of Yogyakarta Special Province (DIY) on the morningof May 27, 2006. We installed a temporary array of 6 seismographs to record aftershocks of the earthquake. The area of aftershocks, which may be interpreted as mainshock ruptured area has dimensions of about 25 km length and 20 km width, in the N48E direction. At depth the seismicity mainly concentrated between 5 to 15 km. The distribution of aftershock does not appear to come very close to the surface. There is no obvious surface evidence of causative fault in this area, though we find many crack and fissures that seem to have produced by the strong ground motion. We used the orientation and size of the fault determined from our aftershock results to carry out an inversion of teleseismic data for the slip distribution. We used broad- band seismograms of the IRIS network with epicentral distances between 30 and 90 degrees. We assume a single fault plane, strike 48 degree and dip 80 degree, which is inferred from the aftershock distribution. The total seismic moment is 0.369 x 10(19) Nm with maximum slip 0.4 meters. The asperity is located about 5 km away southwest of USGS estimated epicenter. Although the distances from the seismic source to heavily damaged areas Bantul and Klaten are 10 to 50 km, soft sedimentary soil likely to have generated very damaging motions within the area.

  9. Decay of aftershock density with distance does not indicate triggering by dynamic stress

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Richards-Dinger, K.; Stein, R.S.; Toda, S.

    2010-01-01

    Resolving whether static or dynamic stress triggers most aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks is essential to understand earthquake interaction and to forecast seismic hazard. Felzer and Brodsky examined the distance distribution of earthquakes occurring in the first five minutes after 2 ≤ M  M  M ≥ 2 aftershocks showed a uniform power-law decay with slope −1.35 out to 50 km from the mainshocks. From this they argued that the distance decay could be explained only by dynamic triggering. Here we propose an alternative explanation for the decay, and subject their hypothesis to a series of tests, none of which it passes. At distances more than 300 m from the 2 ≤  M< 3 mainshocks, the seismicity decay 5 min before the mainshocks is indistinguishable from the decay five minutes afterwards, indicating that the mainshocks have no effect at distances outside their static triggering range. Omori temporal decay, the fundamental signature of aftershocks, is absent at distances exceeding 10 km from the mainshocks. Finally, the distance decay is found among aftershocks that occur before the arrival of the seismic wave front from the mainshock, which violates causality. We argue that Felzer and Brodsky implicitly assume that the first of two independent aftershocks along a fault rupture triggers the second, and that the first of two shocks in a creep- or intrusion-driven swarm triggers the second, when this need not be the case.

  10. The 1998 earthquake sequence south of Long Valley Caldera, California: Hints of magmatic involvement

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Dollar, R.S.; Johnson, P.

    2000-01-01

    A significant episode of seismic and geodetic unrest took place at Long Valley Caldera, California, beginning in the summer of 1997. Activity through late May of 1998 was concentrated in and around the south moat and the south margin of the resurgent dome. The Sierran Nevada block (SNB) region to the south/southeast remained relatively quiet until a M 5.1 event occurred there on 9 June 1998 (UT). A second M 5.1 event followed on 15 July (UT); both events were followed by appreciable aftershock sequences. An additional, distinct burst of activity began on 1 August 1998. The number of events in the August sequence (over the first week or two) was similar to the aftershock sequence of the 15 July 1998 M 5.1 event, but the later sequence was not associated with any events larger than M 4.3. All of the summer 1998 SNB activity was considered tectonic rather than magmatic; in general the SNB is considered an unlikely location for future eruptions. However, the August sequence-an 'aftershock sequence without a mainshock'-is suggestive of a strain event larger than the cumulative seismotectonic strain release. Moreover, a careful examination of waveforms from the August sequence reveals a small handful of events whose spectral signature is strikingly harmonic. We investigate the waveforms of these events using spectral, autocorrelation, and empirical Green's function techniques and conclude that they were most likely associated with a fluid-controlled source. Our observations suggest that there may have been some degree of magma or magma-derived fluid involvement in the 1998 SNB sequence.

  11. Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Moment Tensor Solutions of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake Aftershocks and Their Tectonic Implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, X.; Dreger, D.; Ge, H.; Xu, P.; Wu, M.; Chiang, A.; Zhao, G.; Yuan, H.

    2018-03-01

    Following the mainshock of the 2008 M8 Wenchuan Earthquake, there were more than 300 ML ≥ 4.0 aftershocks that occurred between 12 May 2008 and 8 September 2010. We analyzed the broadband waveforms for these events and found 160 events with sufficient signal-to-noise levels to invert for seismic moment tensors. Considering the length of the activated fault and the distances to the recording stations, four velocity models were employed to account for variability in crustal structure. The moment tensor solutions show considerable variations with a mixture of mainly reverse and strike-slip mechanisms and a small number of normal events and ambiguous events. We analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of the aftershocks and their mechanism types to characterize the structure and the deformation occurring in the Longmen Shan fold and thrust belt. Our results suggest that the stress is very complex at the Longmen Shan fault zone. The moment tensors have both a spatial segmentation with two major categories of the moment tensor of thrust and strike slip; and a temporal pattern that the majority of the aftershocks gradually migrated to thrust-type events. The variability of aftershock mechanisms is a strong indication of significant tectonic release and stress reorganization that activated numerous small faults in the system.

  12. Aftershock Analysis of the 2016 Mw7.8 Pedernales (Ecuador) Earthquake: Seismotectonics, Seismicity Distribution and Relationship with Coseismic Slip Distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agurto-Detzel, H.; Font, Y.; Charvis, P.; Ambrois, D.; Cheze, J.; Courboulex, F.; De Barros, L.; Deschamps, A.; Galve, A.; Godano, M.; Laigle, M.; Maron, C.; Martin, X.; Monfret, T.; Oregioni, D.; Peix, F., Sr.; Regnier, M. M.; Yates, B.; Mercerat, D.; Leon Rios, S.; Rietbrock, A.; Acero, W.; Alvarado, A. P.; Gabriela, P.; Ramos, C.; Ruiz, M. C.; Singaucho, J. C.; Vasconez, F.; Viracucha, C.; Beck, S. L.; Lynner, C.; Hoskins, M.; Meltzer, A.; Soto-Cordero, L.; Stachnik, J.

    2017-12-01

    0n April 2016, a Mw 7.8 megathrust earthquake struck the coast of Ecuador causing vast human and material losses. The earthquake ruptured a 100 km-long segment of the subduction interface between Nazca and South America, spatially coinciding with the 1942 M 7.8 earthquake rupture area. Shortly after the mainshock, an international effort made by institutions from Ecuador, France, UK and USA, deployed a temporary network of +60 land and ocean-bottom seismometers to capture the aftershock sequence for the subsequent year. These stations came to join the local Ecuadorian national network already monitoring in place. Here we benefit from this dataset to produce a suite of automatic locations and a subset of regional moment tensors for high quality events. Over 2900 events were detected for the first month of postseismic activity alone, and a subset of 600 events were manually re-picked and located. Similarly, thousands of aftershocks were detected using the temporary deployment over the following months, with magnitudes ranging between 1 to 7. As expected, moment tensors show mostly thrust faulting at the interface, but we also observe sparse normal and strike-slip faulting at shallow depths in the forearc. The spatial distribution of seismicity delineates the coseismic rupture area, but extends well beyond it over a 300 km long segment. Main features include three seismicity alignments perpendicular to the trench, at the north, center and south of the mainshock rupture. Preliminary results comparing quantitatively the distribution of aftershocks to the distribution of the coseismic rupture show that the bulk of the aftershock seismicity occurs at intermediate levels of coseismic slip, while areas of maximum coseismic slip are mostly devoid of events M>3. Our results shed light on the interface processes occurring mainly during the early post-seismic period of large megathrust earthquakes, and implications on the earthquake cycle.

  13. The 2008 Wells, Nevada earthquake sequence: Source constraints using calibrated multiple event relocation and InSAR

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Hayes, Gavin; Berman, Eric; Barnhart, William

    2017-01-01

    The 2008 Wells, NV earthquake represents the largest domestic event in the conterminous U.S. outside of California since the October 1983 Borah Peak earthquake in southern Idaho. We present an improved catalog, magnitude complete to 1.6, of the foreshock-aftershock sequence, supplementing the current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog with 1,928 well-located events. In order to create this catalog, both subspace and kurtosis detectors are used to obtain an initial set of earthquakes and associated locations. The latter are then calibrated through the implementation of the hypocentroidal decomposition method and relocated using the BayesLoc relocation technique. We additionally perform a finite fault slip analysis of the mainshock using InSAR observations. By combining the relocated sequence with the finite fault analysis, we show that the aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of post-mainshock strain increase; aftershock depths, ranging from 5 to 16 km, are consistent with InSAR imaging, which shows that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near-surface offset.

  14. Postseismic relaxation and aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.; Yu, S.-B.

    2007-01-01

    Perfettini et al. (2005) suggested that the temporal dependence of surface displacements u(t) measured in the epicentral area following an earthquake is related to N(t), the cumulative number of aftershocks, by the equation u(t) = a + bt + cN(t) + d(1 - e-??t), where a, b, c, d, and ?? are constants chosen to fit the data and t is the postearthquake time. N(t) appears in the expression for u(t) because both the aftershocks and a portion of u(t) are thought to be driven by the same source, postseismic fault creep at subseismogenic depths on the downdip extension of the coseismic rupture. We show that this equation with the actually observed N(t) fits the postseismic displacements recorded on several baselines following each of five earthquakes: 1999 M7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan), 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine (southern California), 2002 M7.9 Denali (central Alaska), 2003 M6.5 San Simeon (central California), and 2004 M6.0 Parkfield (central California) earthquakes. Although there are plausible physical interpretations for each of the terms in the expression for u(t), the large number of adjustable constants (a, b, c, d, and ??) involved in fitting the rather simple postseismic displacements diminishes the significance of the fit. Because the observed N(t) is well fit by the modified Omori's law, fault creep at depth presumably exhibits the same temporal dependence. That dependence could be explained if the rheology of the fault downdip from the coseismic rupture is consistent with ordinary transient creep. Montesi (2004) demonstrated that power law creep across a shear zone at depth would also produce that temporal signal.

  15. The Mechanisms and Spatiotemporal Behavior of the 2011 Mw7.1 Van, Eastern Turkey Earthquake Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ezgi Guvercin Isik, Sezim; Ozgun Konca, A.; Karabulut, Hayrullah

    2016-04-01

    We studied the mechanisms and spatiotemporal distribution of the aftershocks of the Mw7.1 Van Earthquake, in Eastern Turkey. The 2011 Van Earthquake occurred on a E-W trending blind thrust fault in Eastern Turkey which is under N-S compression due to convergence of the Arabian plate toward the Eurasia. In this study, we relocated and studied the mechanisms of the M3.5-5.5 aftershocks from regional Pnl and surface waves using the "Cut and Paste" algorithm of Zhu and Helmberger (1996). Our results reveal that the aftershocks in the first day following the mainshock are in the vicinity of the co-seismic slip and have mostly thrust mechanism consistent with the mainshock. In the following day, a second cluster of activity at the northeast termination of the fault ( North of Lake Erçek) has started. These aftershocks have approximately N-S lineation and left lateral source mechanisms. The aftershocks surrounding the mainshock rupture are deeper (>20 km) than the aftershocks triggered on the north (<15km). We also observe strike slip earthquakes on the south of the mainshock. Both of delayed activities (north of the mainshock and south of the mainshock) are consistent with the Coulomb stress increase due to slip on the mainshock. We propose that the Van Fault is truncated by two strike-slip faults at each end, which has determined the along-strike rupture extent of the 2011 mainshock.

  16. Finite-fault inversion of the Mw 5.9 2012 Emilia-Romagna earthquake (Northern Italy) using aftershocks as near-field Green's function approximations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Causse, Mathieu; Cultrera, Giovanna; Herrero, André; Courboulex, Françoise; Schiappapietra, Erika; Moreau, Ludovic

    2017-04-01

    On May 29, 2012 occurred a Mw 5.9 earthquake in the Emilia-Romagna region (Po Plain) on a thrust fault system. This shock, as well as hundreds of aftershocks, were recorded by 10 strong motion stations located less than 10 km away from the rupture plane, with 4 stations located within the surface rupture projection. The Po Plain is a very large EW trending syntectonic alluvial basin, delimited by the Alps and Apennines chains to the North and South. The Plio-Quaternary sedimentary sequence filling the Po Plain is characterized by an uneven thickness, ranging from several thousands of meters to a few tens of meters. This particular context results especially in a resonance basin below 1 Hz and strong surface waves, which makes it particularly difficult to model wave propagation and hence to obtain robust images of the rupture propagation. This study proposes to take advantage of the large set of recorded aftershocks, considered as point sources, to model wave propagation. Due to the heterogeneous distribution of the aftershocks on the fault plane, an interpolation technique is proposed to compute an approximation of the Green's function between each fault point and each strong motion station in the frequency range [0.2-1Hz]. We then use a Bayesian inversion technique (Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm) to obtain images of the rupture propagation from the strong motion data. We propose to retrieve the slip distribution by inverting the final slip value at some control points, which are allowed to move on the fault plane, and by interpolating the slip value between these points. We show that the use of 5 control points to describe the slip, coupled with the hypothesis of spatially constant rupture velocity and rise-time (that is 18 free source parameters), results in a good level of fit with the data. This indicates that despite their complexity, the strong motion data can be properly modeled up to 1 Hz using a relatively simple rupture. The inversion results also

  17. Seismic tomography of the area of the 2010 Beni-Ilmane earthquake sequence, north-central Algeria.

    PubMed

    Abacha, Issam; Koulakov, Ivan; Semmane, Fethi; Yelles-Chaouche, Abd Karim

    2014-01-01

    The region of Beni-Ilmane (District of M'sila, north-central Algeria) was the site of an earthquake sequence that started on 14 May 2010. This sequence, which lasted several months, was triggered by conjugate E-W reverse and N-S dextral faulting. To image the crustal structure of these active faults, we used a set of 1406 well located aftershocks events and applied the local tomography software (LOTOS) algorithm, which includes absolute source location, optimization of the initial 1D velocity model, and iterative tomographic inversion for 3D seismic P- and S-wave velocities (and the Vp/Vs ratio), and source parameters. The patterns of P-wave low-velocity anomalies correspond to the alignments of faults determined from geological evidence, and the P-wave high-velocity anomalies may represent rigid blocks of the upper crust that are not deformed by regional stresses. The S-wave low-velocity anomalies coincide with the aftershock area, where relatively high values of Vp/Vs ratio (1.78) are observed compared with values in the surrounding areas (1.62-1.66). These high values may indicate high fluid contents in the aftershock area. These fluids could have been released from deeper levels by fault movements during earthquakes and migrated rapidly upwards. This hypothesis is supported by vertical sections across the study area show that the major Vp/Vs anomalies are located above the seismicity clusters.

  18. The 2008 Mw 7.2 North Pagai earthquake sequence: Partial rupture of a fully locked Mentawai patch

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salman, R.; Hill, E.; Feng, L.; Wei, S.; Barbot, S.; Lindsey, E.; WANG, X.; Chen, W.; Bannerjee, P.; Hermawan, I.; Natawidjaja, D. H.

    2016-12-01

    The Mentawai patch is a seismic gap along the Sumatra subduction zone that has not ruptured completely over the last decade. This is worrying because coral colonies of the Mentawai islands show that over the last 700 years the Mentawai patch ruptured in a sequence of great earthquake (Mw > 8.5) about every two centuries. In September 2007, the Mw 8.4 Bengkulu earthquake ruptured the southern section of the Mentawai patch. The event was then followed by two Mw >= 7 aftershocks. Five months later, the 2008 Mw 7.2 earthquake ruptured a small asperity a little further north. The event ruptured a small area in the middle portion of the Mentawai patch, where the megathrust had been estimated as highly coupled. The mainshock was preceded by a foreshock of Mw 6.5 one day before and two M 6 aftershocks that occurred on the same day as the mainshock event. However, the whole earthquake sequence ruptured only a confined area on the megathrust and failed to wake up the sleeping giant. We have yet to explain why the 2008 event did not break more asperities and develop into one gargantuan earthquake. In this study, we use geodetic and seismic data to investigate the 2008 earthquake, its following afterslip, and its fore- and after-shocks. First, we jointly invert static and high-rate cGPS, InSAR and teleseismic data in a joint inversion for a co-seismic slip distribution of the mainshock. Second, we invert teleseismic data alone to develop slip models for the foreshock, mainshock and aftershock events. Third, we use the Cut-And-Paste (CAP) technique to estimate a more accurate depths for the 2008 earthquake sequence. Finally, we use six years of cGPS data, from 2008 to 2013, to develop a model for afterslip. Our preliminary results show 2 meters of peak coseismic slip for the mainshock. In addition, 1 meter of peak afterslip overlap with the coseismic slip model. The total estimated slip is far smaller than expected from the accumulated strain that has been stored in the

  19. Rifting mechanisms constrained by InSAR, seismicity, GPS, and surface rupture from the Karonga earthquake sequence in northern Lake Malawi (Nyasa)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, W.; Pritchard, M. E.; Henderson, S. T.; Gaherty, J. B.; Shillington, D. J.; Oliva, S. J.; Ebinger, C.; Nooner, S. L.; Elliott, J.; Saria, E.; Ntambila, D.; Chindandali, P. R. N.

    2017-12-01

    The Malawi rift is part of the archetypal East African rift where early-stage crustal extension is dominated by faulting. In the Karonga region of northern Malawi, a sequence of earthquakes in late 2009, with 15 teleseismically detected (Mw 4.5-6.0) over 13 days, provides a uniqueopportunity to evaluate faulting processes controlling present-day extension in an early-stage rift. We describe observations of this sequence including hundreds of aftershocks located by a temporary seismic array installed in 2010, ground deformation from satellite interferograms, and surface rupture from field surveys published by others. We use all of these data to model fault geometry and slip. The aftershocks from January-May 2010 suggest the involvement of multiple faults, and we test the extent that this can be resolved by the InSAR data. The InSAR and surface rupture both suggest that the major slip occurred at shallow depth (<5 km). Our preferred aftershock locations appear to correlate with this principal slip zone, although uncertainty in the shallow velocity structure can allow for a bulk of the events to fall down-dip of the geodetically constrained slip. Subsequent deformation, including that associated with a December 2014 Mw 5.1 earthquake, can be constrained from multidisciplinary data collected during the SEGMeNT (Study of Extension and maGmatism in Malawi aNd Tanzania) project, which includes the Karonga region and spans 2013-2015. We find 3 cm of potential ground movement at the location of the earthquake as determined by the SEGMeNT seismic array from Sentinel-1. Geodetic fault slip is consistent with the focal mechanism and depth determined by the local array. The location is at the northern end of the 2009-2010 aftershock zone, and aftershocks suggest some linkage with faults that slipped in 2009. InSAR observations do not provide any evidence for large aseismic slip or fluid movements during or after the 2014 sequence, which had <200 aftershocks above the network

  20. What Is Better Than Coulomb Failure Stress? A Ranking of Scalar Static Stress Triggering Mechanisms from 105 Mainshock-Aftershock Pairs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meade, Brendan J.; DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Faller, Jeremy; Viegas, Fernanda; Wattenberg, Martin

    2017-11-01

    Aftershocks may be triggered by the stresses generated by preceding mainshocks. The temporal frequency and maximum size of aftershocks are well described by the empirical Omori and Bath laws, but spatial patterns are more difficult to forecast. Coulomb failure stress is perhaps the most common criterion invoked to explain spatial distributions of aftershocks. Here we consider the spatial relationship between patterns of aftershocks and a comprehensive list of 38 static elastic scalar metrics of stress (including stress tensor invariants, maximum shear stress, and Coulomb failure stress) from 213 coseismic slip distributions worldwide. The rates of true-positive and false-positive classification of regions with and without aftershocks are assessed with receiver operating characteristic analysis. We infer that the stress metrics that are most consistent with observed aftershock locations are maximum shear stress and the magnitude of the second and third invariants of the stress tensor. These metrics are significantly better than random assignment at a significance level of 0.005 in over 80% of the slip distributions. In contrast, the widely used Coulomb failure stress criterion is distinguishable from random assignment in only 51-64% of the slip distributions. These results suggest that a number of alternative scalar metrics are better predictors of aftershock locations than classic Coulomb failure stress change.

  1. Tectonic implications and seismicity triggering during the 2008 Baluchistan, Pakistan earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yadav, R. B. S.; Gahalaut, V. K.; Chopra, Sumer; Shan, Bin

    2012-02-01

    A damaging and widely felt moderate earthquake (Mw 6.4) hit the rural, mountainous region of southwestern Pakistan on October 28, 2008. The main shock was followed by another earthquake of identical magnitude (Mw 6.4) on the next day. The spatial distribution of aftershocks and focal mechanism revealed a NW-SE striking rupture with right-lateral strike-slip motion which is sympathetic to the NNW-SSE striking active mapped Urghargai Fault. The occurrence of strike-slip earthquakes suggests that along with the thrust faults, strike slip faults too are present beneath the fold-and-thrust belt of Sulaiman-Kirthar ranges and accommodates some of the relative motion of the Indian and Eurasian plates. To assess the characteristics of this sequence, the statistical parameters like aftershocks temporal decay, b-value of G-R relationship, partitioning of radiated seismic energy due to aftershocks, and spatial fractal dimension (D-value) have been examined. The b-value is estimated as 1.03 ± 0.42 and suggests the tectonic genesis of the sequence and crustal heterogeneity within rock mass. The low p-value of 0.89 ± 0.07 implies slow decay of aftershocks activity which is probably an evidence for low surface heat flow. A value of spatial fractal dimension of 2.08 ± 0.02 indicates random spatial distribution and that the source is a two-dimensional plane filled-up by fractures. The static coseismic Coulomb stress changes due to the foreshock (Mw 5.3) were found to increase stress by more than 0.04 bars at the hypocenter of the main shock, thus promoting the failure. The cumulative coseismic Coulomb stress changes due to the foreshock and mainshocks suggest that most of the aftershocks occurred in the region of increased Coulomb stress, and to the SE to the mainshock rupture.

  2. Seismic moment tensor inversion using 3D velocity model and its application to the 2013 Lushan earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Lupei; Zhou, Xiaofeng

    2016-10-01

    Source inversion of small-magnitude events such as aftershocks or mine collapses requires use of relatively high frequency seismic waveforms which are strongly affected by small-scale heterogeneities in the crust. In this study, we developed a new inversion method called gCAP3D for determining general moment tensor of a seismic source using Green's functions of 3D models. It inherits the advantageous features of the ;Cut-and-Paste; (CAP) method to break a full seismogram into the Pnl and surface-wave segments and to allow time shift between observed and predicted waveforms. It uses grid search for 5 source parameters (relative strengths of the isotropic and compensated-linear-vector-dipole components and the strike, dip, and rake of the double-couple component) that minimize the waveform misfit. The scalar moment is estimated using the ratio of L2 norms of the data and synthetics. Focal depth can also be determined by repeating the inversion at different depths. We applied gCAP3D to the 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake and its aftershocks using a 3D crustal-upper mantle velocity model derived from ambient noise tomography in the region. We first relocated the events using the double-difference method. We then used the finite-differences method and reciprocity principle to calculate Green's functions of the 3D model for 20 permanent broadband seismic stations within 200 km from the source region. We obtained moment tensors of the mainshock and 74 aftershocks ranging from Mw 5.2 to 3.4. The results show that the Lushan earthquake is a reverse faulting at a depth of 13-15 km on a plane dipping 40-47° to N46° W. Most of the aftershocks occurred off the main rupture plane and have similar focal mechanisms to the mainshock's, except in the proximity of the mainshock where the aftershocks' focal mechanisms display some variations.

  3. Gravity and magnetic anomalies used to delineate geologic features associated with earthquakes and aftershocks in the central Virginia seismic zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, A. K.; Horton, J.; McNamara, D. E.; Spears, D.; Burton, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Estimating seismic hazard in intraplate environments can be challenging partly because events are relatively rare and associated data thus limited. Additionally, in areas such as the central Virginia seismic zone, numerous pre-existing faults may or may not be candidates for modern tectonic activity, and other faults may not have been mapped. It is thus important to determine whether or not specific geologic features are associated with seismic events. Geophysical and geologic data collected in response to the Mw5.8 August 23, 2011 central Virginia earthquake provide excellent tools for this purpose. Portable seismographs deployed within days of the main shock showed a series of aftershocks mostly occurring at depths of 3-8 km along a southeast-dipping tabular zone ~10 km long, interpreted as the causative fault or fault zone. These instruments also recorded shallow (< 4 km) aftershocks clustered in several areas at distances of ~2-15 km from the main fault zone. We use new airborne geophysical surveys (gravity, magnetics, radiometrics, and LiDAR) to delineate the distribution of various surface and subsurface geologic features of interest in areas where the earthquake and aftershocks took place. The main (causative fault) aftershock cluster coincides with a linear, NE-trending gravity gradient (~ 2 mgal/km) that extends over 20 km in either direction from the Mw5.8 epicenter. Gravity modeling incorporating seismic estimates of Moho variations suggests the presence of a shallow low-density body overlying the main aftershock cluster, placing it within the upper 2-4 km of the main-fault hanging wall. The gravity, magnetic, and radiometric data also show a bend in generally NE-SW orientation of anomalies close to the Mw5.8 epicenter. Most shallow aftershock clusters occur near weaker short-wavelength gravity gradients of one to several km length. In several cases these gradients correspond to geologic contacts mapped at the surface. Along the gravity gradients, the

  4. A Jurassic Shock-Aftershock Earthquake Sequence Recorded by Small Clastic Pipes and Dikes within Dune Cross-Strata, Zion National Park, Utah

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loope, D. B.; Zlotnik, V. A.; Kettler, R. M.; Pederson, D. T.

    2012-12-01

    dune lee slope through a pipe, the erupted sand dried and was buried by climbing wind-ripple strata as the large dune continued to advance downwind. The mapped cluster recording eight distinct seismic events lies within thin-laminated sediment that was deposited by wind ripples during 1 m (~ 1 year) of southeastward dune migration. We conclude that the small pipes and dikes of our study sites are products of numerous >MM 5 earthquakes, some of which recurred at intervals of less than 2 months. We interpret one small cluster of pipes and dikes with well-defined upward terminations as a distinct shock-aftershock sequence. Because the largest modern earthquakes can produce surface liquefaction only up to about 175 km from their epicenters, the Jurassic epicenters must have been well within that distance. The tendency of modern plate boundaries to produce high-frequency aftershocks suggests that the epicenter for this Jurassic sequence lay to the southwest, within the plate boundary zone (not within continental rocks to the east). As eolian dunes steadily migrate over interdune surfaces underlain by water-saturated dune cross-strata, the thin, distinct laminae produced by the wind ripples that occupy dune toes can faithfully record high-frequency seismic events.

  5. Aftershocks halted by static stress shadows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.; Beroza, Gregory C.; Marsan, David

    2012-01-01

    Earthquakes impart static and dynamic stress changes to the surrounding crust. Sudden fault slip causes small but permanent—static—stress changes, and passing seismic waves cause large, but brief and oscillatory—dynamic—stress changes. Because both static and dynamic stresses can trigger earthquakes within several rupture dimensions of a mainshock, it has proven difficult to disentangle their contributions to the triggering process1–3. However, only dynamic stress can trigger earthquakes far from the source4,5, and only static stress can create stress shadows, where the stress and thus the seismicity rate in the shadow area drops following an earthquake6–9 . Here we calculate the stress imparted by the magnitude 6.1 Joshua Tree and nearby magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquakes that occurred in California in April and June 1992, respectively, and measure seismicity through time. We show that, where the aftershock zone of the first earthquake was subjected to a static stress increase from the second, the seismicity rate jumped. In contrast, where the aftershock zone of the first earthquake fell under the stress shadow of the second and static stress dropped, seismicity shut down. The arrest of seismicity implies that static stress is a requisite element of spatial clustering of large earthquakes and should be a constituent of hazard assessment.

  6. Aftershocks of the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake revealcomplex faulting in the Yuha Desert, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kroll, K.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Richards-Dinger, K.; Sumy, Danielle

    2013-01-01

    We detect and precisely locate over 9500 aftershocks that occurred in the Yuha Desert region during a 2 month period following the 4 April 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC) earthquake. Events are relocated using a series of absolute and relative relocation procedures that include Hypoinverse, Velest, and hypoDD. Location errors are reduced to ~40 m horizontally and ~120 m vertically.Aftershock locations reveal a complex pattern of faulting with en echelon fault segments trending toward the northwest, approximately parallel to the North American-Pacific plate boundary and en echelon, conjugate features trending to the northeast. The relocated seismicity is highly correlated with published surface mapping of faults that experienced triggered surface slip in response to the EMC main shock. Aftershocks occurred between 2 km and 11 km depths, consistent with previous studies of seismogenic thickness in the region. Three-dimensional analysis reveals individual and intersecting fault planes that are limited in their along-strike length. These fault planes remain distinct structures at depth, indicative of conjugate faulting, and do not appear to coalesce onto a throughgoing fault segment. We observe a complex spatiotemporal migration of aftershocks, with seismicity that jumps between individual fault segments that are active for only a few days to weeks. Aftershock rates are roughly consistent with the expected earthquake production rates of Dieterich (1994). The conjugate pattern of faulting and nonuniform aftershock migration patterns suggest that strain in the Yuha Desert is being accommodated in a complex manner.

  7. Remote detection of weak aftershocks of the DPRK underground explosions using waveform cross correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Bras, R.; Rozhkov, M.; Bobrov, D.; Kitov, I. O.; Sanina, I.

    2017-12-01

    Association of weak seismic signals generated by low-magnitude aftershocks of the DPRK underground tests into event hypotheses represent a challenge for routine automatic and interactive processing at the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, due to the relatively low station density of the International Monitoring System (IMS) seismic network. Since 2011, as an alternative, the IDC has been testing various prototype techniques of signal detection and event creation based on waveform cross correlation. Using signals measured by seismic stations of the IMS from DPRK explosions as waveform templates, the IDC detected several small (estimated mb between 2.2 and 3.6) seismic events after two DPRK tests conducted on September 9, 2016 and September 3, 2017. The obtained detections were associated with reliable event hypothesis and then used to locate these events relative to the epicenters of the DPRK explosions. We observe high similarity of the detected signals with the corresponding waveform templates. The newly found signals also correlate well between themselves. In addition, the values of the signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) estimated using the traces of cross correlation coefficients, increase with template length (from 5 s to 150 s), providing strong evidence in favour of their spatial closeness, which allows interpreting them as explosion aftershocks. We estimated the relative magnitudes of all aftershocks using the ratio of RMS amplitudes of the master and slave signal in the cross correlation windows characterized by the highest SNR. Additional waveform data from regional non-IMS stations MDJ and SEHB provide independent validation of these aftershock hypotheses. Since waveform templates from any single master event may be sub-efficient at some stations, we have also developed a method of joint usage of the DPRK and the biggest aftershocks templates to build more robust event hypotheses.

  8. Constraints on Dynamic Triggering from very Short term Microearthquake Aftershocks at Parkfield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ampuero, J.; Rubin, A.

    2004-12-01

    The study of microearthquakes helps bridge the gap between laboratory experiments and data from large earthquakes, the two disparate scales that have contributed so far to our understanding of earthquake physics. Although they are frequent, microearthquakes are difficult to analyse. Applying high precision relocation techniques, Rubin and Gillard (2000) observed a pronounced asymmetry in the spatial distribution of the earliest and nearest aftershocks of microearthquakes along the San Andreas fault (they occur more often to the NW of the mainshock). It was suggested that this could be related to the velocity contrast across the fault. Preferred directivity of dynamic rupture pulses running along a bimaterial interface (to the SE in the case of the SAF) is expected on theoretical grounds. Our numerical simulations of crack-like rupture on such interfaces show a pronounced asymmetry of the stress histories beyond the rupture ends, and suggest two possible mechanisms for the observed asymmetry: First, that it results from an asymmmetry in the static stress field following arrest of the mainshock (closer to failure to the NW), or second, that it is due to a short-duration tensile pulse that propagates to the SE, which could reduce the number of aftershocks to the SE by dynamic triggering of any nucleation site close enough to failure to have otherwise produced an aftershock. To distinguish betwen these mechanisms we need observations of dynamic triggering in microseismicity. For small events triggered at a distance of some mainshock radii, triggering time scales are so short that seismograms of both events overlap. To detect the occurrence of compound events and very short term aftershocks in the HRSN Parkfield archived waveforms we have developed an automated search algorithm based on empirical Green's function (EGF) deconvolution. Optimal EGFs are first selected by the coherency of the cross-component convolution with respect to the target event. Then Landweber

  9. Analysis of strong ground motions and site effects at Kantipath, Kathmandu, from 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and its aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhakal, Yadab P.; Kubo, Hisahiko; Suzuki, Wataru; Kunugi, Takashi; Aoi, Shin; Fujiwara, Hiroyuki

    2016-04-01

    Strong ground motions from the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and its eight aftershocks recorded by a strong-motion seismograph at Kantipath (KATNP), Kathmandu, were analyzed to assess the ground-motion characteristics and site effects at this location. Remarkably large elastic pseudo-velocity responses exceeding 300 cm/s at 5 % critical damping were calculated for the horizontal components of the mainshock recordings at peak periods of 4-5 s. Conversely, the short-period ground motions of the mainshock were relatively weak despite the proximity of the site to the source fault. The horizontal components of all large-magnitude (Mw ≥ 6.3) aftershock recordings showed peak pseudo-velocity responses at periods of 3-4 s. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) describing the Nepal Himalaya region have not yet been developed. A comparison of the observational data with GMPEs for Japan showed that with the exception of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the mainshock, the observed PGAs and peak ground velocities at the KATNP site are generally well described by the GMPEs for crustal and plate interface events. A comparison of the horizontal-to-vertical ( H/ V) spectral ratios for the S-waves of the mainshock and aftershock recordings suggested that the KATNP site experienced a considerable nonlinear site response, which resulted in the reduced amplitudes of short-period ground motions. The GMPEs were found to underestimate the response values at the peak periods (approximately 4-5 s) of the large-magnitude events. The deep subsurface velocity model of the Kathmandu basin has not been well investigated. Therefore, a one-dimensional velocity model was constructed for the deep sediments beneath the recording station based on an analysis of the H/ V spectral ratios for S-wave coda from aftershock recordings, and it was revealed that the basin sediments strongly amplified the long-period components of the ground motions of the mainshock and large

  10. Foreshocks and Aftershocks Detected from Stick-slip Events on a 3 m Biaxial Apparatus and their Relationship to Quasistatic Nucleation and Wear Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, S.; Mclaskey, G.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate foreshocks and aftershocks of dynamic stick-slip events generated on a newly constructed 3 m biaxial friction apparatus at Cornell University (attached figure). In a typical experiment, two rectangular granite blocks are squeezed together under 4 or 7 MPa of normal pressure ( 4 or 7 million N on a 1 m2 fault surface), and then shear stress is increased until the fault slips 10 - 400 microns in a dynamic rupture event similar to a M -2 to M -3 earthquake. Some ruptures nucleate near the north end of the fault, where the shear force is applied, other ruptures nucleate 2 m from the north end of the fault. The samples are instrumented with 16 piezoelectric sensors, 16 eddy current sensors, and 8 strain gage rosettes, evenly placed along the fault to measure vertical ground motion, local slip, and local stress, respectively. We studied sequences of tens of slip events and identified a total of 194 foreshocks and 66 aftershocks located within 6 s time windows around the stick-slip events and analyzed their timing and locations relative to the quasistatic nucleation process. We found that the locations of the foreshocks and aftershocks were distributed all along the length of the fault, with the majority located at the ends of the fault where local normal and shear stress is highest (caused by both edge effects and the finite stiffness of the steel frame surrounding the granite blocks). We also opened the laboratory fault and inspected the fault surface and found increased wear at the sample ends. To explore the foreshocks' and aftershocks' relationship to the nucleation and afterslip, we compared the occurrence of foreshocks to the local slip rate on the laboratory fault closest to each foreshock in space and time. We found that that majority of foreshocks were generated from local slip rates between 1 and 100 microns/s, though we were not able to resolve slip rate lower than about 1 micron/s. Our experiments provide insight into how foreshocks and

  11. Spatial-temporal evolutions of early aftershocks following the 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake in Sichuan, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Jing; Yao, Dongdong; Meng, Xiaofeng; Peng, Zhigang; Su, Jinrong; Long, Feng

    2017-04-01

    We perform a comprehensive detection of early aftershocks following the 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake, which occurred in the southern Longmenshan Fault Zone in Sichuan Province, China, about 5 years after the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. We use events in both standard and relocated catalogs as templates to scan through continuous waveforms 2 days before and 3 days after the main shock. We successfully reduce the magnitude of completeness Mc by more than 1 order and obtain up to 6 times more events than listed in both catalogs. Aftershocks in the first hour mostly occur around the main shock slip region, and aftershocks at later times show systematic expansions in the along-strike, perpendicular-strike, and updip directions. Although postseismic deformation following the Lushan main shock has not been clearly identified, we suggest that early aftershock expansions are likely driven by afterslip of the Lushan main shock. This is consistent with the observations that most aftershocks were in the stress shadow of the Lushan main shock and that there was significant slip deficit in the top 10 km of the crust. We also find that seismicity on the back thrust fault was activated as soon as 20 min after the main shock, earlier than previously reported. We are unable to detect any clear foreshocks in the last 2 days before the Lushan main shock.

  12. Aftershock seismicity and Tectonic Setting of the 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, Dietrich; Geersen, Jacob; Barrientos, Sergio; Moreno, Marcos; Grevemeyer, Ingo; Contreras-Reyes, Eduardo; Kopp, Heidrun

    2016-04-01

    Powerful subduction zone earthquakes rupture thousands of square kilometers along continental margins but at certain locations earthquake rupture terminates. On 16 September 2015 the Mw. 8.3 Illapel earthquake ruptured a 200 km long stretch of the Central Chilean subduction zone, triggering a tsunami and causing significant damage. Here we analyze the spatial pattern of coseismic rupture and the temporal and spatial pattern of local seismicity for aftershocks and foreshocks in relation to the tectonic setting in the earthquake area. Aftershock seismicity surrounds the rupture area in lateral and downdip direction. For the first 24 hours following the mainshock we observe aftershock migration to both lateral directions with velocities of approximately 2.5 and 5 km/h. At the southern earthquake boundary aftershocks cluster around individual subducted seamounts located on the prolongation of the downthrusting Juan Fernández Ridge indicating stress transfer from the main rupture area. In the northern part of the rupture area a deeper band of local seismicity is observed indicating an alternation of seismic to aseismic behavior of the plate interface in downdip direction. This aseismic region at ~30 km depth that is also observed before the Illapel 2015 earthquake is likely controlled by the intersection of the continental Moho with the subducting slab.

  13. Detailed fault structure of the 2000 Western Tottori, Japan, earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fukuyama, E.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Waldhauser, F.; Kubo, A.

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the faulting process of the aftershock region of the 2000 western Tottori earthquake (Mw 6.6) by combining aftershock hypocenters and moment tensor solutions. Aftershock locations were precisely determined by the double difference method using P- and S-phase arrival data of the Japan Meteorological Agency unified catalog. By combining the relocated hypocenters and moment tensor solutions of aftershocks by broadband waveform inversion of FREESIA (F-net), we successfully resolved very detailed fault structures activated by the mainshock. The estimated fault model resolves 15 individual fault segments that are consistent with both aftershock distribution and focal mechanism solutions. Rupture in the mainshock was principally confined to the three fault elements in the southern half of the zone, which is also where the earliest aftershocks concentrate. With time, the northern part of the zone becomes activated, which is also reflected in the postseismic deformation field. From the stress tensor analysis of aftershock focal mechanisms, we found a rather uniform stress field in the aftershock region, although fault strikes were scattered. The maximum stress direction is N107??E, which is consistent with the tectonic stress field in this region. In the northern part of the fault, where no slip occurred during the mainshock but postseismic slip was observed, the maximum stress direction of N130??E was possible as an alternative solution of stress tensor inversion.

  14. Urban seismology - Northridge aftershocks recorded by multi-scale arrays of portable digital seismographs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meremonte, M.; Frankel, A.; Cranswick, E.; Carver, D.; Worley, D.

    1996-01-01

    We deployed portable digital seismographs in the San Fernando Valley (SFV), the Los Angeles basin (LAB), and surrounding hills to record aftershocks of the 17 January 1994 Northridge California earthquake. The purpose of the deployment was to investigate factors relevant to seismic zonation in urban areas, such as site amplification, sedimentary basin effects, and the variability of ground motion over short baselines. We placed seismographs at 47 sites (not all concurrently) and recorded about 290 earthquakes with magnitudes up to 5.1 at five stations or more. We deployed widely spaced stations for profiles across the San Fernando Valley, as well as five dense arrays (apertures of 200 to 500 m) in areas of high damage, such as the collapsed Interstate 10 overpass, Sherman Oaks, and the collapsed parking garage at CalState Northridge. Aftershock data analysis indicates a correlation of site amplification with mainshock damage. We found several cases where the site amplification depended on the azimuth of the aftershock, possibly indicating focusing from basin structures. For the parking garage array, we found large ground-motion variabilities (a factor of 2) over 200-m distances for sites on the same mapped soil unit. Array analysis of the aftershock seismograms demonstrates that sizable arrivals after the direct 5 waves consist of surface waves traveling from the same azimuth as that of the epicenter. These surface waves increase the duration of motions and can have frequencies as high as about 4 Hz. For the events studied here, we do not observe large arrivals reflected from the southern edge of the San Fernando Valley.

  15. Joint inversion of teleseismic body-waves and geodetic data for the Mw6.8 aftershock of the Balochistan earthquake with refined epicenter location

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, S.; Wang, T.; Jonsson, S.; Avouac, J. P.; Helmberger, D. V.

    2014-12-01

    Aftershocks of the 2013 Balochistan earthquake are mainly concentrated along the northeastern end of the mainshock rupture despite of much larger coseismic slip to the southwest. The largest event among them is an Mw6.8 earthquake which occurred three days after the mainshock. A kinematic slip model of the mainshock was obtained by joint inversion of the teleseismic body-waves and horizontal static deformation field derived from remote sensing optical and SAR data, which is composed of seven fault segments with gradually changing strikes and dips [Avouac et al., 2014]. The remote sensing data provide well constraints on the fault geometry and spatial distribution of slip but no timing information. Meanwhile, the initiation of the teleseismic waveform is very sensitive to fault geometry of the epicenter segment (strike and dip) and spatial slip distribution but much less sensitive to the absolute location of the epicenter. The combination of the two data sets allows a much better determination of the absolute epicenter location, which is about 25km to the southwest of the NEIC epicenter location. The well located mainshock epicenter is used to establish path calibrations for teleseismic P-waves, which are essential for relocating the Mw6.8 aftershock. Our grid search shows that the refined epicenter is located right at the northeastern end of the mainshock rupture. This is confirmed by the SAR offsets calculated from images acquired after the mainshock. The azimuth and range offsets display a discontinuity across the rupture trace of the mainshock. Teleseismic only and static only, as well as joint inversions all indicate that the aftershock ruptured an asperity with 25km along strike and range from 8km to 20km in depth. The earthquake was originated in a positive Coulomb stress change regime due to the mainshock and has complementary slip distribution to the mainshock rupture at the northeastern end, suggesting that the entire seismic generic zone in the crust was

  16. The Stress Transfer and Seismic Interaction Revealed by the Aftershocks of the 2011 Van Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konca, A. O.; Işık, S. E.; Karabulut, H.

    2016-12-01

    We studied the aftershocks of the 2011 Mw7.2 Van, Eastern Turkey, earthquake. This earthquake ruptured an E-W striking blind thrust fault in a region where N-S convergence of the Arabian and Anatolian Plates dominate the tectonic regime. The double-difference relocation of the aftershocks reveal a Z pattern, where in addition to the E-W lineated aftershocks, perpendicular N-S lineated acitivities at each end of the co-seismic rupture are observed. The depths of the aftershocks associated with these two clusters get shallower as their location gets further away from the main fault. Both of the clusters inititated during the first 6 hours following the mainshock and spread away from the mainshock zone in the following days. The focal mechanisms of these aftershocks show that these two clusters are associated with left lateral faults with N-S strikes. These two left-lateral faults seem to cut the Van Fault and possibly determined the co-seismic rupture extent during the 2011 earthquake. This suggested geometry where two off-set left-lateral faults which are connected by a thrust fault is consistent with N-S convergence in the region and also helps explain the post-seismic GPS motion which is not consistent with a single thrust fault. In addition, a third strike-slip cluster to the south of the mainshock has initiated 17 days following the mainshock. This third cluster is associated with an E-W trending right-lateral fault. All of the three activated clusters are on faults which experienced Coulomb stress increase due to the co-seismic slip. Moreover, most seismic activity in the vicinity of the mainshock is on regions where there is Coulomb stress increase.

  17. Teleseismic depth estimation of the 2015 Gorkha-Nepal aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Letort, Jean; Bollinger, Laurent; Lyon-Caen, Helene; Guilhem, Aurélie; Cano, Yoann; Baillard, Christian; Adhikari, Lok Bijaya

    2016-12-01

    The depth of 61 aftershocks of the 2015 April 25 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake, that occurred within the first 20 d following the main shock, is constrained using time delays between teleseismic P phases and depth phases (pP and sP). The detection and identification of these phases are automatically processed using the cepstral method developed by Letort et al., and are validated with computed radiation patterns from the most probable focal mechanisms. The events are found to be relatively shallow (13.1 ± 3.9 km). Because depth estimations could potentially be biased by the method, velocity model or selected data, we also evaluate the depth resolution of the events from local catalogues by extracting 138 events with assumed well-constrained depth estimations. Comparison between the teleseismic depths and the depths from local and regional catalogues helps decrease epistemic uncertainties, and shows that the seismicity is clustered in a narrow band between 10 and 15 km depth. Given the geometry and depth of the major tectonic structures, most aftershocks are probably located in the immediate vicinity of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) shear zone. The mid-crustal ramp of the flat/ramp MHT system is not resolved indicating that its height is moderate (less than 5-10 km) in the trace of the sections that ruptured on April 25. However, the seismicity depth range widens and deepens through an adjacent section to the east, a region that failed on 2015 May 12 during an Mw 7.3 earthquake. This deeper seismicity could reflect a step-down of the basal detachment of the MHT, a lateral structural variation which probably acted as a barrier to the dynamic rupture propagation.

  18. Double-difference Relocation of the Aftershocks of the Tecomán, Colima, Mexico Earthquake of 22 January 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Vanessa; Stock, Joann; Ramírez Vázquez, Carlos Ariel; Reyes-Dávila, Gabriel

    2011-08-01

    On 22 January 2003, the M w = 7.6 Tecomán earthquake struck offshore of the state of Colima, Mexico, near the diffuse triple junction between the Cocos, Rivera, and North American plates. Three-hundred and fifty aftershocks of the Tecomán earthquake with magnitudes between 2.6 and 5.8, each recorded by at least 7 stations, are relocated using the double difference method. Initial locations are determined using P and S readings from the Red Sismológica Telemétrica del Estado de Colima (RESCO) and a 1-D velocity model. Because only eight RESCO stations were operating immediately following the Tecomán earthquake, uncertainties in the initial locations and depths are fairly large, with average uncertainties of 8.0 km in depth and 1.4 km in the north-south and east-west directions. Events occurring between 24 January and 31 January were located using not only RESCO phase readings but also additional P and S readings from 11 temporary stations. Average uncertainties decrease to 0.8 km in depth, 0.3 km in the east-west direction, and 0.7 km in the north-south direction for events occurring while the temporary stations were deployed. While some preliminary studies of the early aftershocks suggested that they were dominated by shallow events above the plate interface, our results place the majority of aftershocks along the plate interface, for a slab dipping between approximately 20° and 30°. This is consistent with the slab positions inferred from geodetic studies. We do see some upper plate aftershocks that may correspond to forearc fault zones, and faults inland in the upper plate, particularly among events occurring more than 3 months after the mainshock.

  19. Main shock and aftershock records of the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Celebi, M.; Akkar, Sinan; Gulerce, U.; Sanli, A.; Bundock, H.; Salkin, A.

    2001-01-01

    The August 17, 1999 Izmit (Turkey) earthquake (Mw=7.4) will be remembered as one of the largest earthquakes of recent times that affected a large urban environment (U.S. Geological Survey, 1999). This significant event was followed by many significant aftershocks and another main event (Mw=7.2) that occurred on November 12, 1999 near Duzce (Turkey). The shaking that caused the widespread damage and destruction was recorded by a handful of accelerographs (~30) in the earthquake area operated by different networks. The characteristics of these records show that the recorded peak accelerations, shown in Figure 1, even those from near field stations, are smaller than expected (Çelebi, 1999, 2000). Following this main event, several organizations from Turkey, Japan, France and the USA deployed temporary accelerographs and other aftershock recording hardware. Thus, the number of recording stations in the earthquake affected area was quadrupled (~130). As a result, as seen in Figure 2, smaller magnitude aftershocks yielded larger peak accelerations, indicating that because of the sparse networks, recording of larger motions during the main shock of August 17, 1999 were possibly missed.

  20. Source parameters and effects of bandwidth and local geology on high- frequency ground motions observed for aftershocks of the northeastern Ohio earthquake of 31 January 1986

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glassmoyer, G.; Borcherdt, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    A 10-station array (GEOS) yielded recordings of exceptional bandwidth (400 sps) and resolution (up to 96 dB) for the aftershocks of the moderate (mb???4.9) earthquake that occurred on 31 January 1986 near Painesville, Ohio. Nine aftershocks were recorded with seismic moments ranging between 9 ?? 1016 and 3 ?? 1019 dyne-cm (MW: 0.6 to 2.3). The aftershock recordings at a site underlain by ???8m of lakeshore sediments show significant levels of high-frequency soil amplification of vertical motion at frequencies near 8, 20 and 70 Hz. Viscoelastic models for P and SV waves incident at the base of the sediments yield estimates of vertical P-wave response consistent with the observed high-frequency site resonances, but suggest additional detailed shear-wave logs are needed to account for observed S-wave response. -from Authors

  1. Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: links between wastewater injection and the 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keranen, Katie M.; Savage, Heather M.; Abers, Geoffrey A.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the continental interior of the United States, including five of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 5.0 in 2011 alone. Concurrently, the volume of fluid injected into the subsurface related to the production of unconventional resources continues to rise. Here we identify the largest earthquake potentially related to injection, an Mw 5.7 earthquake in November 2011 in Oklahoma. The earthquake was felt in at least 17 states and caused damage in the epicentral region. It occurred in a sequence, with 2 earthquakes of Mw 5.0 and a prolific sequence of aftershocks. We use the aftershocks to illuminate the faults that ruptured in the sequence, and show that the tip of the initial rupture plane is within ~200 m of active injection wells and within ~1 km of the surface; 30% of early aftershocks occur within the sedimentary section. Subsurface data indicate that fluid was injected into effectively sealed compartments, and we interpret that a net fluid volume increase after 18 yr of injection lowered effective stress on reservoir-bounding faults. Significantly, this case indicates that decades-long lags between the commencement of fluid injection and the onset of induced earthquakes are possible, and modifies our common criteria for fluid-induced events. The progressive rupture of three fault planes in this sequence suggests that stress changes from the initial rupture triggered the successive earthquakes, including one larger than the first.

  2. Disease aftershocks - The health effects of natural disasters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guptill, S.C.

    2001-01-01

    While the initial activity of a natural disaster event may directly injure or kill a number of people, it is possible that a significant number of individuals will be affected by disease outbreaks that occur after the first effects of the disaster have passed. Coupling the epidemiologist's knowledge of disease outbreaks with geographic information systems and remote sensing technology could help natural disaster relief workers to prevent additional victims from disease aftershocks.

  3. The 2008 Mw 6.0 Wells, Nevada Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, K.; Depolo, D.; Torrisi, J.; Edwards, N.; Biasi, G.; Slater, D.

    2008-12-01

    The Mw 6.0 February 21, 2008 (06:16 AM PDT) Wells, Nevada normal faulting earthquake occurred in Town Creek Flat about 8 km northeast of the small community of Wells. A preliminary set of about 1000 aftershock relocations clearly defines a 55-60 degree southeast dipping fault plane. The structure projects to the surface along the southern end of the Snake Range, although no surface offsets have been identified. The earthquake occurred east of the Ruby Mountains and Snake Range west dipping range front faults, possibly on a northern extension of an east dipping normal fault system on the eastern side of the East Humbolt Range. The depth of the mainshock is estimated to be 10.5 km with the aftershock sequence extending to about 15 km. Typical of moderate sized Basin and Range earthquakes, the early aftershock period included several earthquakes of M > 4 and these were felt strongly by the residents of Wells. From the preliminary relocations, the source radius of the mainshock is estimated to be about 4 km, resulting in an estimated displacement of 55 to 83 cm and static stress drop of 72 to 86 bars, depending on the seismic moment estimate used. Aftershock relocations suggest a radial rupture mechanism. Fortunately, the EarthScope USArray network was operating in Nevada at the time of the event and provided unique controls on the mainshock and early aftershock locations. The earthquake occurred in an area of relatively low seismic hazard and the only permanent seismograph in the region was the U.S. National Network broadband station east of the Ruby Mountains south of Wells. The University of Utah and University of Nevada deployed locally recorded strong motion instruments in the Wells area. Also, an 8 station IP telemetered strong motion network, jointly deployed by the U.S. Geological Survey and University of Nevada Reno, provided real-time data for quick high-quality aftershock relocations and ground motion estimates. In addition, the University of Utah

  4. A Comparison of Earthquake Back-Projection Imaging Methods for Dense Local Arrays, and Application to the 2011 Virginia Aftershock Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beskardes, G. D.; Hole, J. A.; Wang, K.; Wu, Q.; Chapman, M. C.; Davenport, K. K.; Michaelides, M.; Brown, L. D.; Quiros, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Back-projection imaging has recently become a practical method for local earthquake detection and location due to the deployment of densely sampled, continuously recorded, local seismograph arrays. Back-projection is scalable to earthquakes with a wide range of magnitudes from very tiny to very large. Local dense arrays provide the opportunity to capture very tiny events for a range applications, such as tectonic microseismicity, source scaling studies, wastewater injection-induced seismicity, hydraulic fracturing, CO2 injection monitoring, volcano studies, and mining safety. While back-projection sometimes utilizes the full seismic waveform, the waveforms are often pre-processed to overcome imaging issues. We compare the performance of back-projection using four previously used data pre-processing methods: full waveform, envelope, short-term averaging / long-term averaging (STA/LTA), and kurtosis. The goal is to identify an optimized strategy for an entirely automated imaging process that is robust in the presence of real-data issues, has the lowest signal-to-noise thresholds for detection and for location, has the best spatial resolution of the energy imaged at the source, preserves magnitude information, and considers computational cost. Real data issues include aliased station spacing, low signal-to-noise ratio (to <1), large noise bursts and spatially varying waveform polarity. For evaluation, the four imaging methods were applied to the aftershock sequence of the 2011 Virginia earthquake as recorded by the AIDA array with 200-400 m station spacing. These data include earthquake magnitudes from -2 to 3 with highly variable signal to noise, spatially aliased noise, and large noise bursts: realistic issues in many environments. Each of the four back-projection methods has advantages and disadvantages, and a combined multi-pass method achieves the best of all criteria. Preliminary imaging results from the 2011 Virginia dataset will be presented.

  5. Near real-time aftershock hazard maps for earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCloskey, J.; Nalbant, S. S.

    2009-04-01

    Stress interaction modelling is routinely used to explain the spatial relationships between earthquakes and their aftershocks. On 28 October 2008 a M6.4 earthquake occurred near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border killing several hundred and causing widespread devastation. A second M6.4 event occurred 12 hours later 20km to the south east. By making some well supported assumptions concerning the source event and the geometry of any likely triggered event it was possible to map those areas most likely to experience further activity. Using Google earth, it would further have been possible to identify particular settlements in the source area which were particularly at risk and to publish their locations globally within about 3 hours of the first earthquake. Such actions could have significantly focused the initial emergency response management. We argue for routine prospective testing of such forecasts and dialogue between social and physical scientists and emergency response professionals around the practical application of these techniques.

  6. Systematic Study of Foreshocks and Triggered Earthquakes During the 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Deng, S.; Castro, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake occurred southwest of the Pacific-North America plate boundary in north Baja California. It was preceded by an intensive foreshock sequence, and was followed by numerous aftershocks both on and off the mainshock rupture zone, hence providing us a great opportunity to study the physical mechanisms of foreshock and aftershock triggering. In our previously published work (Meng and Peng, GJI, 2014), we focused on the seismicity rate changes around the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) and along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) following the mainshock. Based on a recently developed matched filter technique, we were able to detect up to 20 times more events than listed in the SCSN catalog. We found that the seismicity rate near SSGF and SJF both experienced significant increase immediately following the mainshock. However, the seismicity rate near SSGF, where static Coulomb stress decreased, dropped below the pre-mainshock level after ~50 days. On the other hand, the seismicity rate near SJF, where static Coulomb stress increased, remained high till the end of our detecting time window. Such pattern indicates that both static and dynamic triggering may coexist, but dominate in different time scales. Motivated by this success, we shift our focus to the foreshock and aftershock sequence of the El Mayor-Cucapah event. We utilize available seismic stations immediately north to US-Mexico boarder and a few stations within Mexico to conduct a similar detection ~40 days before to 40 days after the mainshock. We aim to obtain a complete foreshock sequence and investigate its spatio-temporal evolutions before the mainshock. Moreover, we plan to study similar patterns for aftershocks and the corresponding triggering mechanisms. Updated results will be presented at the meeting.

  7. Including foreshocks and aftershocks in time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard analyses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boyd, Oliver S.

    2012-01-01

    Time‐independent probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis treats each source as being temporally and spatially independent; hence foreshocks and aftershocks, which are both spatially and temporally dependent on the mainshock, are removed from earthquake catalogs. Yet, intuitively, these earthquakes should be considered part of the seismic hazard, capable of producing damaging ground motions. In this study, I consider the mainshock and its dependents as a time‐independent cluster, each cluster being temporally and spatially independent from any other. The cluster has a recurrence time of the mainshock; and, by considering the earthquakes in the cluster as a union of events, dependent events have an opportunity to contribute to seismic ground motions and hazard. Based on the methods of the U.S. Geological Survey for a high‐hazard site, the inclusion of dependent events causes ground motions that are exceeded at probability levels of engineering interest to increase by about 10% but could be as high as 20% if variations in aftershock productivity can be accounted for reliably.

  8. Distribution and migration of aftershocks of the 2010 Mw 7.4 Ogasawara Islands intraplate normal-faulting earthquake related to a fracture zone in the Pacific plate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obana, Koichiro; Takahashi, Tsutomu; No, Tetsuo; Kaiho, Yuka; Kodaira, Shuichi; Yamashita, Mikiya; Sato, Takeshi; Nakamura, Takeshi

    2014-04-01

    describe the aftershocks of a Mw 7.4 intraplate normal-faulting earthquake that occurred 150 km east Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands, Japan, on 21 December 2010. It occurred beneath the outer trench slope of the Izu-Ogasawara trench, where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the Philippine Sea plate. Aftershock observations using ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) began soon after the earthquake and multichannel seismic reflection surveys were conducted across the aftershock area. Aftershocks were distributed in a NW-SE belt 140 km long, oblique to the N-S trench axis. They formed three subparallel lineations along a fracture zone in the Pacific plate. The OBS observations combined with data from stations on Chichi-jima and Haha-jima Islands revealed a migration of the aftershock activity. The first hour, which likely outlines the main shock rupture, was limited to an 80 km long area in the central part of the subsequent aftershock area. The first hour activity occurred mainly around, and appears to have been influenced by, nearby large seamounts and oceanic plateau, such as the Ogasawara Plateau and the Uyeda Ridge. Over the following days, the aftershocks expanded beyond or into these seamounts and plateau. The aftershock distribution and migration suggest that crustal heterogeneities related to a fracture zone and large seamounts and oceanic plateau in the incoming Pacific plate affected the rupture of the main shock. Such preexisting structures may influence intraplate normal-faulting earthquakes in other regions of plate flexure prior to subduction.

  9. Aftershocks and triggering processes in rock fracture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidsen, J.; Kwiatek, G.; Goebel, T.; Stanchits, S. A.; Dresen, G.

    2017-12-01

    One of the hallmarks of our understanding of seismicity in nature is the importance of triggering processes, which makes the forecasting of seismic activity feasible. These triggering processes by which one earthquake induces (dynamic or static) stress changes leading to potentially multiple other earthquakes are at the core relaxation processes. A specic example of triggering are aftershocks following a large earthquake, which have been observed to follow certain empirical relationships such as the Omori-Utsu relation. Such an empirical relation should arise from the underlying microscopic dynamics of the involved physical processes but the exact connection remains to be established. Simple explanations have been proposed but their general applicability is unclear. Many explanations involve the picture of an earthquake as a purely frictional sliding event. Here, we present experimental evidence that these empirical relationships are not limited to frictional processes but also arise in fracture zone formation and are mostly related to compaction-type events. Our analysis is based on tri-axial compression experiments under constant displacement rate on sandstone and granite samples using spatially located acoustic emission events and their focal mechanisms. More importantly, we show that event-event triggering plays an important role in the presence of large-scale or macrocopic imperfections while such triggering is basically absent if no signicant imperfections are present. We also show that spatial localization and an increase in activity rates close to failure do not necessarily imply triggering behavior associated with aftershocks. Only if a macroscopic crack is formed and its propagation remains subcritical do we observe significant triggering.

  10. The 2015 April 25 Gorkha Earthquake and its Aftershocks: Implications for lateral heterogeneity on the Main Himalayan Thrust

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitra, S.; Kumar, A.; Priestley, K. F.

    2016-12-01

    The 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8) occurred by thrust faulting on a ˜150 km long and ˜70 km wide, locked downdip segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), causing the Himalaya to slip SSW over the Indian Plate, and was followed by major-to-moderate aftershocks. Back projection of teleseismic P-wave and inversion of teleseismic body waves provide constraints on the geometry and kinematics of the mainshock rupture and source mechanism of aftershocks. The mainshock initiated ˜80 km west of Katmandu, close to the locking line on the MHT and propagated eastwards, along ˜117° azimuth, for a duration of ˜70 s, in multi-stage rupture. The mainshock has been modeled using four sub-events, propagating from west-to-east. The first sub-event (0-20 s) ruptured at a velocity of ˜3.5 km/s on a ˜6° N dipping flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion. The second sub-event (20-35 s) ruptured a ˜18° W dipping lateral ramp on the MHT in oblique thrust motion. The rupture velocity dropped from 3.5 km/s to 2.5 km/s, as a result of updip propagation of the rupture. The third sub-event (35-50 s) ruptured a ˜7° N dipping, eastward flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion and resulted in the largest amplitude arrivals at teleseismic distances. The fourth sub-event (50-70 s) occurred by left-lateral strike-slip motion on a steeply dipping transverse fault, at high angle to the MHT and arrested the eastward propagation of the mainshock rupture. Eastward stress build-up following the mainshock resulted in the largest aftershock (Mw 7.3), which occurred on the MHT, immediately east of the mainshock rupture. Source mechanism of moderate aftershocks reveal stress adjustment at the edges of the mainshock fault, flexural faulting on top of the downgoing Indian Plate and extensional faulting in the hanging wall of the MHT.

  11. Aftershock stress analysis of the April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake from the NAMASTE project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pant, M.; Velasco, A. A.; Karplus, M. S.; Patlan, E.; Ghosh, A.; Nabelek, J.; Kuna, V. M.; Sapkota, S. N.; Adhikari, L. B.; Klemperer, S. L.

    2016-12-01

    Continental collision between the Indian plate and the Eurasian plate, converging at 45 mm/yr, has uplifted the northern part of Nepal forming the Himalaya. Because of this convergence, the region has experienced large, devastating earthquakes, including the 1934 Mw 8.4 Nepal-Bihar earthquake and two recent earthquakes on April 25, 2015 Mw 7.8 (Gorkha earthquake) and May 12, 2015 Mw 7.2. These quakes killed thousands of people and caused billion dollars of property loss. Despite some recent geologic and geophysical studies of this area, many tectonic questions remain unanswered. Shortly after the Gorkha earthquake, we deployed a seismic network, NAMASTE (Nepal Array Measuring Aftershock Seismicity Trailing Earthquake), to study the aftershocks of these two large events. Our network included 45 different seismic stations (16 short period, 25 broadband, and 4 strong motion sensors) that spanned the Gorkha rupture area. The deployment extends from south of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) to the Main Central Thrust region (MCT), and it to recorded aftershocks for more than ten months from June 2015 to May 2016. We are leveraging high-precision earthquake locations by measuring and picking P-wave first-motion arrival polarity to develop a catalog of focal mechanisms for the larger aftershocks. We will use this catalog to correlate the seismicity and stress related of the Indo-Eurasian plate margin, hoping to address questions regarding the complex fault geometries and future earthquake hazards at this plate margin.

  12. Aftershocks following crash of currency exchange rate: The case of RUB/USD in 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Usmanova, Vasilya; Lysogorskiy, Yury V.; Abe, Sumiyoshi

    2018-02-01

    The dynamical behavior of the currency exchange rate after its large-scale catastrophe is discussed through a case study of the rate of Russian rubles to US dollars after its crash in 2014. It is shown that, similarly to the case of the stock market crash, the relaxation is characterized by a power law, which is in analogy with the Omori-Utsu law for earthquake aftershocks. The waiting-time distribution is found to also obey a power law. Furthermore, the event-event correlation is discussed, and the aging phenomenon and scaling property are observed. Comments are made on (non-)Markovianity of the aftershock process and on a possible relevance of glassy dynamics to the market system after the crash.

  13. Low-angle normal faulting in the Basin and Range-Colorado Plateau transition zone during the January 3, 2011 Circleville, UT earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gammans, Christine Naomi Louise

    On January 3, 2011, an Mw 4.5 earthquake occurred in the Tushar Mountains near Circleville, Utah (38.248°N, -112.329°W, 7.75 km depth, and origin time of 12:06:36.58). The Tushar Mountains are located in the transition zone between the stable Colorado Plateau (CP) to the east and the deforming Basin and Range (BR) province to the west. In this area, seismicity associated with the Intermountain Seismic Belt is relatively common. The University of Utah Seismograph Stations (UUSS) detected and located 97 aftershocks in the 33 weeks following the mainshock. On January 6, UUSS installed a portable station in the source region. Using three aftershocks recorded by the portable station as master events, including the largest (Mw 3.8), we relocated the mainshock/aftershock sequence. These refined locations were used as initial locations for the HypoDD method of Waldhauser and Ellsworth [2001] to produce a second, improved set of relocations. In addition to P- and S-arrival time picks, we used the lag-times from waveform cross-correlations as input to HypoDD. We analyzed the fault geometry apparent in the final locations by comparing them to known moment-tensor focal planes and by applying principal component analysis to measure the degree of planarity and orientation of the sequence as a whole. Additionally, using cross-correlation analysis, we identified aftershocks best suited for an empirical Green's function analysis of the mainshock and a strike-slip aftershock that occurred on January 6. From the events chosen by cross-correlation, we were able to obtain source-time functions that were used to obtain fault dimensions, stress drops, and evidence for or against directivity. Lastly, we determined focal mechanisms for ten of the events using first-motion methods. The results of the combined analyses indicate that the mainshock occurred on a low-angle normal fault and that the entire sequence occurred on at least two different fault planes.

  14. The Mw6.5 17 November 2015 Lefkada (Greece) Earthquake: Structural Interpretation by Means of the Aftershock Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadimitriou, E.; Karakostas, V.; Mesimeri, M.; Chouliaras, G.; Kourouklas, Ch.

    2017-10-01

    . The third cluster, encompassing a large number of aftershocks, is located in the offshore area between Lefkada and Kefalonia Islands with a NE-SW epicentral alignment, alike the first cluster. The northeast-southwest striking secondary faults positioned obliquely and in continuation of the main fault segment, reveal that the KTFZ is being deformed in a complex tectonic setting. The presence of faults with this geometry implies strain partitioning and sheds light to new components necessary to be taken into account in the seismic hazard assessment. Stress transfer models of the M ≥6.0 main shocks were investigated and the calculated static stress changes may well explain their sequential occurrence. Static stress changes due to the 2015 coseismic slip were also calculated with the main objective of exploring the aftershock occurrence pattern and it was found as the driving mechanism that triggered the vast majority of the off-fault aftershocks.

  15. Stress evolution following the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake: Consequences for afterslip, relaxation, aftershocks and departures from Omori decay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chan, C.-H.; Stein, R.S.

    2009-01-01

    We explore how Coulomb stress transfer and viscoelastic relaxation control afterslip and aftershocks in a continental thrust fault system. The 1999 September 21 Mw = 7.6 Chi-Chi shock is typical of continental ramp-d??collement systems throughout the world, and so inferences drawn from this uniquely well-recorded event may be widely applicable. First, we find that the spatial and depth distribution of aftershocks and their focal mechanisms are consistent with the calculated Coulomb stress changes imparted by the coseismic rupture. Some 61 per cent of the M ??? 2 aftershocks and 83 per cent of the M ??? 4 aftershocks lie in regions for which the Coulomb stress increased by ???0.1 bars, and there is a 11-12 per cent gain in the percentage of aftershocks nodal planes on which the shear stress increased over the pre-Chi Chi control period. Second, we find that afterslip occurred where the calculated coseismic stress increased on the fault ramp and d??collement, subject to the condition that friction is high on the ramp and low on the d??collement. Third, viscoelastic relaxation is evident from the fit of the post-seismic GPS data on the footwall. Fourth, we find that the rate of seismicity began to increase during the post-seismic period in an annulus extending east of the main rupture. The spatial extent of the seismicity annulus resembles the calculated ???0.05-bar Coulomb stress increase caused by viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip, and we find a 9-12 per cent gain in the percentage of focal mechanisms with >0.01-bar shear stress increases imparted by the post-seismic afterslip and relaxation in comparison to the control period. Thus, we argue that post-seismic stress changes can for the first time be shown to alter the production of aftershocks, as judged by their rate, spatial distribution, and focal mechanisms. ?? Journal compilation ?? 2009 RAS.

  16. April 25, 2015, Gorkha Earthquake, Nepal and Sequence of Aftershocks: Key Lessons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guragain, R.; Dixit, A. M.; Shrestha, S. N.

    2015-12-01

    The Gorkha Earthquake of M7.8 hit Nepal on April 25, 2015 at 11:56 am local time. The epicenter of this earthquake was Barpak, Gorkha, 80 km northwest of Kathmandu Valley. The main shock was followed by hundreds of aftershocks including M6.6 and M6.7 within 48 hours and M7.3 on May 12, 2015. According to the Government of Nepal, a total of 8,686 people lost their lives, 16,808 people injured, over 500,000 buildings completely collapsed and more than 250,000 building partially damaged. The National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET), a not-for-profit civil society organization that has been focused on earthquake risk reduction in Nepal for past 21 years, conducted various activities to support people and the government in responding to the earthquake disaster. The activities included: i) assisting people and critical facility institutions to conduct rapid visual building damage assessment including the training; ii) information campaign to provide proper information regarding earthquake safety; iii) support rescue organizations on search and rescue operations; and iv) provide technical support to common people on repair, retrofit of damaged houses. NSET is also involved in carrying out studies related to earthquake damage, geotechnical problems, and causes of building damages. Additionally, NSET has done post-earthquake detail damage assessment of buildings throughout the affected areas. Prior to the earthquake, NSET has been working with several institutions to improve seismic performance of school buildings, private residential houses, and other critical structures. Such activities implemented during the past decade have shown the effectiveness of risk reduction. Retrofitted school buildings performed very well during the earthquake. Preparedness activities implemented at community levels have helped communities to respond immediately and save lives. Higher level of earthquake awareness achieved including safe behavior, better understanding of

  17. Relationship between large slip area and static stress drop of aftershocks of inland earthquake :Example of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urano, S.; Hiramatsu, Y.; Yamada, T.

    2013-12-01

    The 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake (MJMA 6.9; hereafter referred to the main shock) occurred at 0:41(UTC) on March 25, 2007 at a depth of 11km beneath the west coast of Noto Peninsula, central Japan. The dominant slip of the main shock was on a reverse fault with a right-lateral slip and the large slip area was distributed from hypocenter to the shallow part on the fault plane (Horikawa, 2008). The aftershocks are distributed not only in the small slip area but also in the large slip area (Hiramatsu et al., 2011). In this study, we estimate static stress drops of aftershocks on the fault plane of the main shock. We discuss the relationship between the static stress drops of the aftershocks and the large slip area of the main shock by investigating spatial pattern of the values of the static stress drops. We use the waveform data obtained by the group for the joint aftershock observations of the 2007 Noto Hanto Earthquake (Sakai et al., 2007). The sampling frequency of the waveform data is 100 Hz or 200 Hz. Focusing on similar aftershocks reported by Hiramatsu et al. (2011), we analyze static stress drops by using the method of empirical Green's function (EGF) (Hough, 1997) as follows. The smallest earthquake (MJMA≥2.0) of each group of similar earthquakes is set to the EGF earthquake, and the largest earthquake (MJMA≥2.5) is set to the target earthquake. We then deconvolve the waveform of an interested earthquake with that of the EGF earthquake at each station and obtain the spectral ratio of the sources that cancels the propagation effects (path and site effects). Following the procedure of Yamada et al. (2010), we finally estimate static stress drops for P- and S-waves from corner frequencies of the spectral ratio by using a model of Madariaga (1976). The estimated average value of static stress drop is 8.2×1.3 MPa (8.6×2.2 MPa for P-wave and 7.8×1.3 MPa for S-wave). These values are coincident approximately with the static stress drop of aftershocks of other

  18. Space-Time Earthquake Rate Models for One-Year Hazard Forecasts in Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Michael, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The recent one-year seismic hazard assessments for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern US (CEUS) (Petersen et al., 2016, 2017) rely on earthquake rate models based on declustered catalogs (i.e., catalogs with foreshocks and aftershocks removed), as is common practice in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. However, standard declustering can remove over 90% of some induced sequences in the CEUS. Some of these earthquakes may still be capable of causing damage or concern (Petersen et al., 2015, 2016). The choices of whether and how to decluster can lead to seismicity rate estimates that vary by up to factors of 10-20 (Llenos and Michael, AGU, 2016). Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of hazard assessments, we are exploring ways to make forecasts based on full, rather than declustered, catalogs. We focus on Oklahoma, where earthquake rates began increasing in late 2009 mainly in central Oklahoma and ramped up substantially in 2013 with the expansion of seismicity into northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We develop earthquake rate models using the space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988; Ogata, AISM, 1998; Zhuang et al., JASA, 2002), which characterizes both the background seismicity rate as well as aftershock triggering. We examine changes in the model parameters over time, focusing particularly on background rate, which reflects earthquakes that are triggered by external driving forces such as fluid injection rather than other earthquakes. After the model parameters are fit to the seismicity data from a given year, forecasts of the full catalog for the following year can then be made using a suite of 100,000 ETAS model simulations based on those parameters. To evaluate this approach, we develop pseudo-prospective yearly forecasts for Oklahoma from 2013-2016 and compare them with the observations using standard Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability tests for consistency.

  19. The 2015 April 25 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake and its aftershocks: implications for lateral heterogeneity on the Main Himalayan Thrust

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Ajay; Singh, Shashwat K.; Mitra, S.; Priestley, K. F.; Dayal, Shankar

    2017-02-01

    The 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8) occurred by thrust faulting on a ˜150 km long and ˜70 km wide, locked downdip segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), causing the Himalaya to slip SSW over the Indian Plate, and was followed by major-to-moderate aftershocks. Back projection of teleseismic P-wave and inversion of teleseismic body waves provide constraints on the geometry and kinematics of the main-shock rupture and source mechanism of aftershocks. The main-shock initiated ˜80 km west of Katmandu, close to the locking line on the MHT and propagated eastwards along ˜117° azimuth for a duration of ˜70 s, with varying rupture velocity on a heterogeneous fault surface. The main-shock has been modelled using four subevents, propagating from west-to-east. The first subevent (0-20 s) ruptured at a velocity of ˜3.5 km s- 1 on a ˜6°N dipping flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion. The second subevent (20-35 s) ruptured a ˜18° W dipping lateral ramp on the MHT in oblique thrust motion. The rupture velocity dropped from 3.5 km s- 1 to 2.5 km s- 1, as a result of updip propagation of the rupture. The third subevent (35-50 s) ruptured a ˜7°N dipping, eastward flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion and resulted in the largest amplitude arrivals at teleseismic distances. The fourth subevent (50-70 s) occurred by left-lateral strike-slip motion on a steeply dipping transverse fault, at high angle to the MHT and arrested the eastward propagation of the main-shock rupture. Eastward stress build-up following the main-shock resulted in the largest aftershock (Mw 7.3), which occurred on the MHT, immediately east of the main-shock rupture. Source mechanisms of moderate aftershocks reveal stress adjustment at the edges of the main-shock fault, flexural faulting on top of the downgoing Indian Plate and extensional faulting in the hanging wall of the MHT.

  20. Comparing the stress change characteristics and aftershock decay rate of the 2011 Mineral, VA, earthquake with similar earthquakes from a variety of tectonic settings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walsh, L. S.; Montesi, L. G.; Sauber, J. M.; Watters, T. R.; Kim, W.; Martin, A. J.; Anderson, R.

    2011-12-01

    On August 23, 2011, the magnitude 5.8 Mineral, VA, earthquake rocked the U.S. national capital region (Washington, DC) drawing worldwide attention to the occurrence of intraplate earthquakes. Using regional Coulomb stress change, we evaluate to what extent slip on faults during the Mineral, VA, earthquake and its aftershocks may have increased stress on notable Cenozoic fault systems in the DC metropolitan area: the central Virginia seismic zone, the DC fault zone, and the Stafford fault system. Our Coulomb stress maps indicate that the transfer of stress from the Mineral, VA, mainshock was at least 500 times greater than that produced from the magnitude 3.4 Germantown, MD, earthquake that occurred northwest of DC on July 16, 2010. Overall, the Mineral, VA, earthquake appears to have loaded faults of optimum orientation in the DC metropolitan region, bringing them closer to failure. The distribution of aftershocks of the Mineral, VA, earthquake will be compared with Coulomb stress change maps. We further characterize the Mineral, VA, earthquake by comparing its aftershock decay rate with that of blind thrust earthquakes with similar magnitude, focal mechanism, and depth from a variety of tectonic settings. In particular, we compare aftershock decay relations of the Mineral, VA, earthquake with two well studied California reverse faulting events, the August 4, 1985 Kettleman Hills (Mw = 6.1) and October 1, 1987 Whittier Narrow (Mw = 5.9) earthquakes. Through these relations we test the hypothesis that aftershock duration is inversely proportional to fault stressing rate, suggesting that aftershocks in active tectonic margins may last only a few years while aftershocks in intraplate regions could endure for decades to a century.

  1. Complex faulting in the Quetta Syntaxis: fault source modeling of the October 28, 2008 earthquake sequence in Baluchistan, Pakistan, based on ALOS/PALSAR InSAR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Usman, Muhammad; Furuya, Masato

    2015-09-01

    The Quetta Syntaxis in western Baluchistan, Pakistan, is the result of an oroclinal bend of the western mountain belt and serves as a junction for different faults. As this area also lies close to the left-lateral strike-slip Chaman fault, which marks the boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates, the resulting seismological behavior of this regime is very complex. In the region of the Quetta Syntaxis, close to the fold and thrust belt of the Sulaiman and Kirthar Ranges, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4 (Mw) occurred on October 28, 2008, which was followed by a doublet on the very next day. Six more shocks associated with these major events then occurred (one foreshock and five aftershocks), with moment magnitudes greater than 4. Numerous researchers have tried to explain the source of this sequence based on seismological, GPS, and Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT)/Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) data. Here, we used Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS)/Phased Array-type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) InSAR data sets from both ascending and descending orbits that allow us to more completely detect the deformation signals around the epicentral region. The results indicated that the shock sequence can be explained by two right-lateral and two left-lateral strike-slip faults that also included reverse slip. The right-lateral faults have a curved geometry. Moreover, whereas previous studies have explained the aftershock crustal deformation with a different fault source, we found that the same left-lateral segment of the conjugate fault was responsible for the aftershocks. We thus confirmed the complex surface deformation signals from the moderate-sized earthquake. Intra-plate crustal bending and shortening often seem to be accommodated as conjugate faulting, without any single preferred fault orientation. We also detected two possible landslide areas along with the crustal deformation pattern.

  2. An Anatomy of a Seismic Sequence in a Deep Gold Mine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibowicz, S. J.

    1997-12-01

    An unusual swarm-like seismic sequence occurred in April 1993 at the Western Deep Levels gold mine, South Africa. Altogether 199 events with moment magnitude from -0.5 to 3.1 were recorded and located by the mine seismic network. The sequence lasted 12 days and was composed in fact of four main shock-aftershocks sequences, closely following each other in space and time. The events were confined to a volume of rock extending to 670 m in the N-S, 630 m in the E-W, and 390 m in the vertical directions. The first sequence lasted 179 hours and the second only 13 hours, being interrupted by the third sequence which lasted 31 hours, being in turn interrupted by the fourth sequence. The parameter p, describing the rate of occurrence of aftershocks, ranged from 0.7 to 1. The first sequence is characterized by the lowest value of the fractal correlation dimension D = 1.75 and the second by the highest value of D = 2.4, whereas the third and fourth sequences are characterized by the middle value of D = 1.9.¶The corner frequencies of P and S waves are in close proximity and range from 14 to 220 Hz. A display of source parameters as a function of time shows that the four main shocks are most distinctly marked by their source radius. For 46 events a moment tensor inversion was performed. In most cases the double-couple component is dominant, ranging from 60 to 90 percent of the solution. The double-couple solutions correspond to the same number of normal and reverse faults and oblique-slip focal mechanisms. An analysis of space distribution of P, T and B axes reveals that the distribution of B axes is the most regular.

  3. Identical Aftershocks from the Main Rupture Zone 10 Months After the Mw=7.6 September 5, 2012, Nicoya, Costa Rica, Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Protti, M.; Alfaro-Diaz, R.; Brenn, G. R.; Fasola, S.; Murillo, A.; Marshall, J. S.; Gardner, T. W.

    2013-12-01

    Over a two weeks period and as part of a Keck Geology Consortium summer research project, we installed a dense broad band seismic array directly over the rupture zone of the Nicoya, September 5th, 2012, Mw=7.6 earthquake. The network consisted of 5 Trillium compact seismometers and Taurus digitizers from Nanometrics, defining a triangular area of ~20 km per side. Also located within this area are 3 stations of the Nicoya permanent broadband network. One side of the triangular area, along the west coast of the Nicoya peninsula, is parallel to the trench and the apex lies 15 km landward. The plate interface and rupture zone of the Nicoya 2012 earthquake are located 16 km below the trench-parallel side and 25 km below the apex of this triangular footprint. Station spacing ranged from 3 to 14 km. This dense array operated from July 2nd to July 17th, 2013. On June 23rd, eight days before we installed this array, an Mw=5.4 aftershock (one of the only 5 aftershocks of the Nicoya Mw=7.6 earthquake with magnitudes above 5.0) occurred directly beneath the area of our temporary network. Preliminary analysis of the data shows that we recorded several identical aftershocks with magnitudes below 1.0 that locate some 18 km below our network. We will present detailed locations of these small aftershocks and their relationship with the June 23rd, 2013 aftershock and the September 5th, 2012, mainshock.

  4. Effects of three-dimensional velocity structure on the seismicity of the 1984 Morgan Hill, California, aftershock sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.

    1988-01-01

    A three-dimensional velocity model for the area surrounding the 24 April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake has been developed by simultaneously inverting local earthquake and refraction arrival-time data. This velocity model corresponds well to the surface geology of the region, predominantly showing a low-velocity region associated with the sedimentary sequence to the south-west of the Madrone Springs fault. The focal mechanisms were also determined for 946 earthquakes using both the one-dimensional and three-dimensional earth models. Both earth models yield similar focal mechanisms for these earthquakes. -from Author

  5. Nonparametric Combinatorial Sequence Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wauthier, Fabian L.; Jordan, Michael I.; Jojic, Nebojsa

    This work considers biological sequences that exhibit combinatorial structures in their composition: groups of positions of the aligned sequences are "linked" and covary as one unit across sequences. If multiple such groups exist, complex interactions can emerge between them. Sequences of this kind arise frequently in biology but methodologies for analyzing them are still being developed. This paper presents a nonparametric prior on sequences which allows combinatorial structures to emerge and which induces a posterior distribution over factorized sequence representations. We carry out experiments on three sequence datasets which indicate that combinatorial structures are indeed present and that combinatorial sequence models can more succinctly describe them than simpler mixture models. We conclude with an application to MHC binding prediction which highlights the utility of the posterior distribution induced by the prior. By integrating out the posterior our method compares favorably to leading binding predictors.

  6. A change in fault-plane orientation between foreshocks and aftershocks of the Galway Lake earthquake, ML = 5.2, 1975, Mojave desert, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fuis, G.S.; Lindh, A.G.

    1979-01-01

    A marked change is observed in P/SV amplitude ratios, measured at station TPC, from foreshocks to aftershocks of the Galway Lake earthquake. This change is interpreted to be the result of a change in fault-plane orientation occurring between foreshocks and aftershocks. The Galway Lake earthquake, ML= 5.2, occurred on June 1, 1975. The first-motion fault-plane solutions for the main shock and most foreshocks and aftershocks indicate chiefly right-lateral strike-slip on NNW-striking planes that dip steeply, 70-90??, to the WSW. The main event was preceded by nine located foreshocks, ranging in magnitude from 1.9 to 3.4, over a period of 12 weeks, starting on March 9, 1975. All of the foreshocks form a tight cluster approximately 1 km in diameter. This cluster includes the main shock. Aftershocks are distributed over a 6-km-long fault zone, but only those that occurred inside the foreshock cluster are used in this study. Seismograms recorded at TPC (?? = 61 km), PEC (?? = 93 km), and CSP (?? = 83 km) are the data used here. The seismograms recorded at TPC show very consistent P/SV amplitude ratios for foreshocks. For aftershocks the P/SV ratios are scattered, but generally quite different from foreshock ratios. Most of the scatter for the aftershocks is confined to the two days following the main shock. Thereafter, however, the P/SV ratios are consistently half as large as for foreshocks. More subtle (and questionable) changes in the P/SV ratios are observed at PEC and CSP. Using theoretical P/SV amplitude ratios, one can reproduce the observations at TPC, PEC and CSP by invoking a 5-12?? counterclockwise change in fault strike between foreshocks and aftershocks. This interpretation is not unique, but it fits the data better than invoking, for example, changes in dip or slip angle. First-motion data cannot resolve this small change, but they permit it. Attenuation changes would appear to be ruled out by the fact that changes in the amplitude ratios, PTPC/PPEC and ptpc

  7. New insights into fault activation and stress transfer between en echelon thrusts: The 2012 Emilia, Northern Italy, earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheloni, D.; Giuliani, R.; D'Agostino, N.; Mattone, M.; Bonano, M.; Fornaro, G.; Lanari, R.; Reale, D.; Atzori, S.

    2016-06-01

    Here we present the results of the inversion of a new geodetic data set covering the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence and the following 1 year of postseismic deformation. Modeling of the geodetic data together with the use of a catalog of 3-D relocated aftershocks allows us to constrain the rupture geometries and the coseismic and postseismic slip distributions for the two main events (Mw 6.1 and 6.0) of the sequence and to explore how these thrust events have interacted with each other. Dislocation modeling reveals that the first event ruptured a slip patch located in the center of the Middle Ferrara thrust with up to 1 m of reverse slip. The modeling of the second event, located about 15 km to the southwest, indicates a main patch with up to 60 cm of slip initiated in the deeper and flatter portion of the Mirandola thrust and progressively propagated postseismically toward the top section of the rupture plane, where most of the aftershocks and afterslip occurred. Our results also indicate that between the two main events, a third thrust segment was activated releasing a pulse of aseismic slip equivalent to a Mw 5.8 event. Coulomb stress changes suggest that the aseismic event was likely triggered by the preceding main shock and that the aseismic slip event probably brought the second fault closer to failure. Our findings show significant correlations between static stress changes and seismicity and suggest that stress interaction between earthquakes plays a significant role among continental en echelon thrusts.

  8. Scientific overview and historical context of the 1811-1812 new Madrid earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2004-01-01

    aftershock». These values are consistent with other lines of evidence, including scaling relationships. Finally, I show that accounts from the New Madrid sequence reveal evidence for remotely triggered earthquakes well outside the NMSZ. Remotely triggered earthquakes represent a potentially important new wrinkle in historic earthquake research, as their ground motions can sometimes be confused with mainshock ground motions.

  9. The impact of static stress change, dynamic stress change, and the background stress on aftershock focal mechanisms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2014-01-01

    The focal mechanisms of earthquakes in Southern California before and after four M ≥ 6.7 main shocks provide insight into how fault systems respond to stress and changes in stress. The main shock static stress changes have two observed impacts on the seismicity: changing the focal mechanisms in a given location to favor those aligned with the static stress change and changing the spatial distribution of seismicity to favor locations where the static stress change aligns with the background stress. The aftershock focal mechanisms are significantly aligned with the static stress changes for absolute stress changes of ≥ 0.02 MPa, for up to ~20 years following the main shock. The dynamic stress changes have similar, although smaller, effects on the local focal mechanisms and the spatial seismicity distribution. Dynamic stress effects are best observed at long periods (30–60 s) and for metrics based on repeated stress cycling in the same direction. This implies that dynamic triggering operates, at least in part, through cyclic shear stress loading in the direction of fault slip. The background stress also strongly controls both the preshock and aftershock mechanisms. While most aftershock mechanisms are well oriented in the background stress field, 10% of aftershocks are identified as poorly oriented outliers, which may indicate limited heterogeneity in the postmain shock stress field. The fault plane orientations of the outliers are well oriented in the background stress, while their slip directions are not, implying that the background stress restricts the distribution of available fault planes.

  10. Quantifying the Earthquake Clustering that Independent Sources with Stationary Rates (as Included in Current Risk Models) Can Produce.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.; Apel, E. V.; Muir-Wood, R.

    2014-12-01

    The recent Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES) renewed public and academic awareness concerning the clustered nature of seismicity. Multiple event occurrence in short time and space intervals is reminiscent of aftershock sequences, but aftershock is a statistical definition, not a label one can give an earthquake in real-time. Aftershocks are defined collectively as what creates the Omori event rate decay after a large event or are defined as what is taken away as "dependent events" using a declustering method. It is noteworthy that depending on the declustering method used on the Canterbury earthquake sequence, the number of independent events varies a lot. This lack of unambiguous definition of aftershocks leads to the need to investigate the amount of clustering inherent in "declustered" risk models. This is the task we concentrate on in this contribution. We start from a background source model for the Canterbury region, in which 1) centroids of events of given magnitude are distributed using a latin-hypercube lattice, 2) following the range of preferential orientations determined from stress maps and focal mechanism, 3) with length determined using the local scaling relationship and 4) rates from a and b values derived from the declustered pre-2010 catalog. We then proceed to create tens of thousands of realizations of 6 to 20 year periods, and we define criteria to identify which successions of events in the region would be perceived as a sequence. Note that the spatial clustering expected is a lower end compared to a fully uniform distribution of events. Then we perform the same exercise with rates and b-values determined from the catalog including the CES. If the pre-2010 catalog was long (or rich) enough, then the computed "stationary" rates calculated from it would include the CES declustered events (by construction, regardless of the physical meaning of or relationship between those events). In regions of low seismicity rate (e.g., Canterbury before

  11. Retrosynthetic Reaction Prediction Using Neural Sequence-to-Sequence Models

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    We describe a fully data driven model that learns to perform a retrosynthetic reaction prediction task, which is treated as a sequence-to-sequence mapping problem. The end-to-end trained model has an encoder–decoder architecture that consists of two recurrent neural networks, which has previously shown great success in solving other sequence-to-sequence prediction tasks such as machine translation. The model is trained on 50,000 experimental reaction examples from the United States patent literature, which span 10 broad reaction types that are commonly used by medicinal chemists. We find that our model performs comparably with a rule-based expert system baseline model, and also overcomes certain limitations associated with rule-based expert systems and with any machine learning approach that contains a rule-based expert system component. Our model provides an important first step toward solving the challenging problem of computational retrosynthetic analysis. PMID:29104927

  12. Characterizing spatial heterogeneity based on the b-value and fractal analyses of the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nampally, Subhadra; Padhy, Simanchal; Dimri, Vijay P.

    2018-01-01

    The nature of spatial distribution of heterogeneities in the source area of the 2015 Nepal earthquake is characterized based on the seismic b-value and fractal analysis of its aftershocks. The earthquake size distribution of aftershocks gives a b-value of 1.11 ± 0.08, possibly representing the highly heterogeneous and low stress state of the region. The aftershocks exhibit a fractal structure characterized by a spectrum of generalized dimensions, Dq varying from D2 = 1.66 to D22 = 0.11. The existence of a fractal structure suggests that the spatial distribution of aftershocks is not a random phenomenon, but it self-organizes into a critical state, exhibiting a scale-independent structure governed by a power-law scaling, where a small perturbation in stress is sufficient enough to trigger aftershocks. In order to obtain the bias in fractal dimensions resulting from finite data size, we compared the multifractal spectrum for the real data and random simulations. On comparison, we found that the lower limit of bias in D2 is 0.44. The similarity in their multifractal spectra suggests the lack of long-range correlation in the data, with an only weakly multifractal or a monofractal with a single correlation dimension D2 characterizing the data. The minimum number of events required for a multifractal process with an acceptable error is discussed. We also tested for a possible correlation between changes in D2 and energy released during the earthquakes. The values of D2 rise during the two largest earthquakes (M > 7.0) in the sequence. The b- and D2 values are related by D2 = 1.45 b that corresponds to the intermediate to large earthquakes. Our results provide useful constraints on the spatial distribution of b- and D2-values, which are useful for seismic hazard assessment in the aftershock area of a large earthquake.

  13. The January 2014 Northern Cuba Earthquake Sequence - Unusual Location and Unexpected Source Mechanism Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braunmiller, J.; Thompson, G.; McNutt, S. R.

    2017-12-01

    On 9 January 2014, a magnitude Mw=5.1 earthquake occurred along the Bahamas-Cuba suture at the northern coast of Cuba revealing a surprising seismic hazard source for both Cuba and southern Florida where it was widely felt. Due to its location, the event and its aftershocks (M>3.5) were recorded only at far distances (300+ km) resulting in high-detection thresholds, low location accuracy, and limited source parameter resolution. We use three-component regional seismic data to study the sequence. High-pass filtered seismograms at the closest site in southern Florida are similar in character suggesting a relatively tight event cluster and revealing additional, smaller aftershocks not included in the ANSS or ISC catalogs. Aligning on the P arrival and low-pass filtering (T>10 s) uncovers a surprise polarity flip of the large amplitude surface waves on vertical seismograms for some aftershocks relative to the main shock. We performed regional moment tensor inversions of the main shock and its largest aftershocks using complete three-component seismograms from stations distributed throughout the region to confirm the mechanism changes. Consistent with the GCMT solution, we find an E-W trending normal faulting mechanism for the main event and for one immediate aftershock. Two aftershocks indicate E-W trending reverse faulting with essentially flipped P- and T-axes relative to the normal faulting events (and the same B-axes). Within uncertainties, depths of the two event families are indistinguishable and indicate shallow faulting (<10 km). One intriguing possible interpretation is that both families ruptured the same fault with reverse mechanisms compensating for overshooting. However, activity could also be spatially separated either vertically (with reverse mechanisms possibly below extension) or laterally. The shallow source depth and the 200-km long uplifted chain of islands indicate that larger, shallow and thus potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes could occur just

  14. Tectonic Deformation Pattern along the Longmen Shan Fault Zone in Eastern Tibet: Insights from Focal Mechanisms of the Wenchuan and Lushan Earthquake Sequences, Southwestern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yi, G.; Vallage, A.; Klinger, Y.; Long, F.; Wang, S.

    2017-12-01

    760 ML≥3.5 aftershocks of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the 2013 Lushan mainshock and its 87 ML≥3.5 aftershocks were selected to obtain focal mechanism solutions from CAP waveform inversion method (Zhu and Helmberger, 1996), along with strain rosette (Amelung and King, 1997) and Areal strain (As) (Vallage et al., 2014), we aimed to analyze the tectonic deformation pattern along the Longmen Shan (LMS) fault zone, southwestern China. The As values show that 93% compressional earthquakes for the Lushan sequence are of pure thrust for the southern segment of the LMS fault zone, while only 50% compressional and nearly 40% of strike-slip and oblique-thrust events for the Wenchuan sequence reflect the strike-slip component increase on the central-northern segment of the LMS fault zone, meaning many different faults responsible for the Wenchuan aftershock activity. The strain rosettes with purely NW-trending compressional white lobe for the entire 87 aftershocks and 4 different classes of magnitudes are very similar to that of the Lushan mainshock. We infer that the geological structures for the southern segment are of thrust faulting under NW compressional deformation. The strain rosettes exhibit self-similarity in terms of orientation and shape for all classes, reflecting that the deformation pattern of the southern segment is independent with earthquake size, and suggesting that each class is representative of the overall deformation for the southern segment. We obtained EW-oriented pure compressional strain rosette of the entire 760 aftershocks and NW-oriented white lobe with small NE-oriented black lobe of the Wenchuan mainshock, and this difference may reflect different tectonic deformation pattern during the co-seismic and post-seismic stages. The deformation segmentation along the Wenchuan coseismic surface rupture is also evidenced from the different orientation of strain rosettes, i.e., NW for the southern area, NE for the central and NNW for the northern

  15. Seismicity Controlled by a Frictional Afterslip During a Small-Magnitude Seismic Sequence (ML < 5) on the Chihshang Fault, Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canitano, Alexandre; Godano, Maxime; Hsu, Ya-Ju; Lee, Hsin-Ming; Linde, Alan T.; Sacks, Selwyn

    2018-02-01

    We report evidence for frictional afterslip at shallow depths (about 5 to 7 km) during a small-magnitude seismic sequence (with ML<5) along the Chihshang Fault, a main active structure of the Longitudinal Valley, in southeast Taiwan. The afterslip, which was recorded by a nearby borehole dilatometer, lasted about a month with a cumulative geodetic moment magnitude of 4.8 ± 0.2. The afterslip comprised two stages and controlled the aftershock sequence. The first postseismic stage, which followed a ML 4.6 earthquake, lasted about 6 h and mostly controlled the ruptures of neighboring asperities (e.g., multiplets) near the hypocenter. Then, a 4 week duration large afterslip event following a ML 4.9 earthquake controlled the rate of aftershocks during its first 2 days through brittle creep. The study presents a rare case of simultaneous seismological and geodetic observations for afterslip following earthquakes with magnitude lower than 5. Furthermore, the geodetic moment of the postseismic phase is at least equivalent to the coseismic moment of the sequence.

  16. Evaluating spatial and temporal relationships between an earthquake cluster near Entiat, central Washington, and the large December 1872 Entiat earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brocher, Thomas M.; Blakely, Richard J.; Sherrod, Brian

    2017-01-01

    We investigate spatial and temporal relations between an ongoing and prolific seismicity cluster in central Washington, near Entiat, and the 14 December 1872 Entiat earthquake, the largest historic crustal earthquake in Washington. A fault scarp produced by the 1872 earthquake lies within the Entiat cluster; the locations and areas of both the cluster and the estimated 1872 rupture surface are comparable. Seismic intensities and the 1–2 m of coseismic displacement suggest a magnitude range between 6.5 and 7.0 for the 1872 earthquake. Aftershock forecast models for (1) the first several hours following the 1872 earthquake, (2) the largest felt earthquakes from 1900 to 1974, and (3) the seismicity within the Entiat cluster from 1976 through 2016 are also consistent with this magnitude range. Based on this aftershock modeling, most of the current seismicity in the Entiat cluster could represent aftershocks of the 1872 earthquake. Other earthquakes, especially those with long recurrence intervals, have long‐lived aftershock sequences, including the Mw">MwMw 7.5 1891 Nobi earthquake in Japan, with aftershocks continuing 100 yrs after the mainshock. Although we do not rule out ongoing tectonic deformation in this region, a long‐lived aftershock sequence can account for these observations.

  17. A stochastic estimate of ground motion at Oceano, California, for the M 6.5 22 December 2003 San Simeon earthquake, derived from aftershock recordings

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Di, Alessandro C.; Boatwright, J.

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey deployed a digital seismic station in Oceano, California, in February 2004, to investigate the cause of damage and liquefaction from the 22 December 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake. This station recorded 11 M > 2.8 aftershocks in almost 8 weeks. We analyze these recordings, together with recordings of the mainshock and the same aftershocks obtained from nearby stations in Park Hill and San Luis Obispo, to estimate the mainshock ground motion in Oceano. We estimate the Fourier amplitude spectrum using generalized spectral ratio analysis. We test a set of aftershocks as Green's functions by comparing simulated and recorded acceleration amplitude spectra for the mainshock at San Luis Obispo and Park Hill. We convolve the aftershock accelerograms with a stochastic operator to simulate the duration and phase of the mainshock accelerograms. This approximation allows us to extend the range of aftershocks that can be used as Green's functions to events nearly three magnitude units smaller than the mainshock. Our realizations for the mainshock accelerogram at Oceano yield peak ground accelerations distributed as 28% ?? 4%g. We interpret these realizations as upper bounds for the actual ground motion, because our analysis assumes a linear response, whereas the presence of liquefaction indicates that the ground behaved nonlinearly in Oceano.

  18. SOME NEW PROCESSING TECHNIQUES FOR THE IMPERIAL VALLEY 1979 AFTERSHOCKS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brady, A. Gerald; ,

    1983-01-01

    This paper describes some of the features of the latest processing improvements that the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) is currently applying to strong-motion accelerograms from the national network of permanent stations. At the same time it introduces the application of this processing to the set of Imperial Valley aftershocks recorded following the main shock of October 15, 1979. Earlier processing of the 22 main shock recordings provided corrected accelerations, velocity and displacement, response spectra, and Fourier spectra.

  19. Fault Zone Imaging from Correlations of Aftershock Waveforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hillers, Gregor; Campillo, Michel

    2018-03-01

    We image an active fault zone environment using cross correlations of 154 15 s long 1992 Landers earthquake aftershock seismograms recorded along a line array. A group velocity and phase velocity dispersion analysis of the reconstructed Rayleigh waves and Love waves yields shear wave velocity images of the top 100 m along the 800 m long array that consists of 22 three component stations. Estimates of the position, width, and seismic velocity of a low-velocity zone are in good agreement with the findings of previous fault zone trapped waves studies. Our preferred solution indicates the zone is offset from the surface break to the east, 100-200 m wide, and characterized by a 30% velocity reduction. Imaging in the 2-6 Hz range resolves further a high-velocity body of similar width to the west of the fault break. Symmetry and shape of zero-lag correlation fields or focal spots indicate a frequency and position dependent wavefield composition. At frequencies greater than 4 Hz surface wave propagation dominates, whereas at lower frequencies the correlation field also exhibits signatures of body waves that likely interact with the high-velocity zone. The polarization and late arrival times of coherent wavefronts observed above the low-velocity zone indicate reflections associated with velocity contrasts in the fault zone environment. Our study highlights the utility of the high-frequency correlation wavefield obtained from records of local and regional seismicity. The approach does not depend on knowledge of earthquake source parameters, which suggests the method can return images quickly during aftershock campaigns to guide network updates for optimal coverage of interesting geological features.

  20. On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.; Blanpied, M.

    2000-01-01

    We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t0. The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r0, testable using earthquake catalogs, where r0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r0, consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t0. These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified

  1. Sequence modelling and an extensible data model for genomic database

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Li, Peter Wei-Der

    1992-01-01

    The Human Genome Project (HGP) plans to sequence the human genome by the beginning of the next century. It will generate DNA sequences of more than 10 billion bases and complex marker sequences (maps) of more than 100 million markers. All of these information will be stored in database management systems (DBMSs). However, existing data models do not have the abstraction mechanism for modelling sequences and existing DBMS's do not have operations for complex sequences. This work addresses the problem of sequence modelling in the context of the HGP and the more general problem of an extensible object data modelmore » that can incorporate the sequence model as well as existing and future data constructs and operators. First, we proposed a general sequence model that is application and implementation independent. This model is used to capture the sequence information found in the HGP at the conceptual level. In addition, abstract and biological sequence operators are defined for manipulating the modelled sequences. Second, we combined many features of semantic and object oriented data models into an extensible framework, which we called the Extensible Object Model'', to address the need of a modelling framework for incorporating the sequence data model with other types of data constructs and operators. This framework is based on the conceptual separation between constructors and constraints. We then used this modelling framework to integrate the constructs for the conceptual sequence model. The Extensible Object Model is also defined with a graphical representation, which is useful as a tool for database designers. Finally, we defined a query language to support this model and implement the query processor to demonstrate the feasibility of the extensible framework and the usefulness of the conceptual sequence model.« less

  2. Sequence modelling and an extensible data model for genomic database

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Li, Peter Wei-Der

    1992-01-01

    The Human Genome Project (HGP) plans to sequence the human genome by the beginning of the next century. It will generate DNA sequences of more than 10 billion bases and complex marker sequences (maps) of more than 100 million markers. All of these information will be stored in database management systems (DBMSs). However, existing data models do not have the abstraction mechanism for modelling sequences and existing DBMS`s do not have operations for complex sequences. This work addresses the problem of sequence modelling in the context of the HGP and the more general problem of an extensible object data modelmore » that can incorporate the sequence model as well as existing and future data constructs and operators. First, we proposed a general sequence model that is application and implementation independent. This model is used to capture the sequence information found in the HGP at the conceptual level. In addition, abstract and biological sequence operators are defined for manipulating the modelled sequences. Second, we combined many features of semantic and object oriented data models into an extensible framework, which we called the ``Extensible Object Model``, to address the need of a modelling framework for incorporating the sequence data model with other types of data constructs and operators. This framework is based on the conceptual separation between constructors and constraints. We then used this modelling framework to integrate the constructs for the conceptual sequence model. The Extensible Object Model is also defined with a graphical representation, which is useful as a tool for database designers. Finally, we defined a query language to support this model and implement the query processor to demonstrate the feasibility of the extensible framework and the usefulness of the conceptual sequence model.« less

  3. North Korea's 2017 Test and its Nontectonic Aftershock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Li, L.; Zahradník, J.; Sokos, E.; Liu, C.; Tian, X.

    2018-04-01

    Seismology illuminates physical processes occurring during underground explosions, not all yet fully understood. The thus-far strongest North Korean test of 3 September 2017 was followed by a moderate seismic event (mL 4.1) after 8.5 min. Here we provide evidence that this aftershock was a nontectonic event which radiated seismic waves as a buried horizontal closing crack. This vigorous crack closure, occurring shortly after the blast, is studied in the North Korea test site for the first time. The event can be qualitatively explained as rapid destruction of an explosion-generated cracked rock chimney due to cavity collapse, although other compaction processes cannot be ruled out.

  4. Location of early aftershocks of the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture Earthquake (M = 6.8) in central Japan using seismogram envelopes as templates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosuga, M.

    2013-12-01

    The location of early aftershocks is very important to obtain information of mainshock fault, however, it is often difficult due to the long-lasting coda wave of mainshock and successive occurrence of afterrshocks. To overcome this difficulty, we developed a method of location using seismogram envelopes as templates, and applied the method to the early aftershock sequence of the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture (Chuetsu) Earthquake (M = 6.8) in central Japan. The location method composes of three processes. The first process is the calculation of cross-correlation coefficients between a continuous (target) and template envelopes. We prepare envelopes by taking the logarithm of root-mean-squared amplitude of band-pass filtered seismograms. We perform the calculation by shifting the time window to obtain a set of cross-correlation values for each template. The second process is the event detection (selection of template) and magnitude estimate. We search for the events in descending order of cross-correlation in a time window excluding the dead times around the previously detected events. Magnitude is calculated by the amplitude ratio of target and template envelopes. The third process is the relative event location to the selected template. We applied this method to the Chuetsu earthquake, a large inland earthquake with extensive aftershock activity. The number of detected events depends on the number of templates, frequency range, and the threshold value of cross-correlation. We set the threshold as 0.5 by referring to the histogram of cross-correlation. During a period of one-hour from the mainshock, we could detect more events than the JMA catalog. The location of events is generally near the catalog location. Though we should improve the methods of relative location and magnitude estimate, we conclude that the proposed method works adequately even just after the mainshock of large inland earthquake. Acknowledgement: We thank JMA, NIED, and the University of Tokyo for

  5. Source and Aftershock Analysis of a Large Deep Earthquake in the Tonga Flat Slab

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, C.; Wiens, D. A.; Warren, L. M.

    2013-12-01

    The 9 November 2009 (Mw 7.3) deep focus earthquake (depth = 591 km) occurred in the Tonga flat slab region, which is characterized by limited seismicity but has been imaged as a flat slab in tomographic imaging studies. In addition, this earthquake occurred immediately beneath the largest of the Fiji Islands and was well recorded by a temporary array of 16 broadband seismographs installed in Fiji and Tonga, providing an excellent opportunity to study the source mechanism of a deep earthquake in a partially aseismic flat slab region. We determine the positions of main shock hypocenter, its aftershocks and moment release subevents relative to the background seismicity using a hypocentroidal decomposition relative relocation method. We also investigate the rupture directivity by measuring the variation of rupture durations at different azimuth [e.g., Warren and Silver, 2006]. Arrival times picked from the local seismic stations together with teleseismic arrival times from the International Seismological Centre (ISC) are used for the relocation. Teleseismic waveforms are used for directivity study. Preliminary results show this entire region is relatively aseismic, with diffuse background seismicity distributed between 550-670 km. The main shock happened in a previously aseismic region, with only 1 small earthquake within 50 km during 1980-2012. 11 aftershocks large enough for good locations all occurred within the first 24 hours following the earthquake. The aftershock zone extends about 80 km from NW to SE, covering a much larger area than the mainshock rupture. The aftershock distribution does not correspond to the main shock fault plane, unlike the 1994 March 9 (Mw 7.6) Fiji-Tonga earthquake in the steeply dipping, highly seismic part of the Tonga slab. Mainshock subevent locations suggest a sub-horizontal SE-NW rupture direction. However, the directivity study shows a complicated rupture process which could not be solved with simple rupture assumption. We will

  6. Ground Deformation and Sources geometry of the 2016 Central Italy Earthquake Sequence Investigated through Analytical and Numerical Modeling of DInSAR Measurements and Structural-Geological Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solaro, G.; Bonano, M.; Boncio, P.; Brozzetti, F.; Castaldo, R.; Casu, F.; Cirillo, D.; Cheloni, D.; De Luca, C.; De Nardis, R.; De Novellis, V.; Ferrarini, F.; Lanari, R.; Lavecchia, G.; Manunta, M.; Manzo, M.; Pepe, A.; Pepe, S.; Tizzani, P.; Zinno, I.

    2017-12-01

    The 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence started on 24th August with a MW 6.1 event, where the intra-Apennine WSW-dipping Vettore-Gorzano extensional fault system released a destructive earthquake, causing 300 casualties and extensive damage to the town of Amatrice and surroundings. We generated several interferograms by using ALOS and Sentinel 1-A and B constellation data acquired on both ascending and descending orbits to show that most displacement is characterized by two main subsiding lobes of about 20 cm on the fault hanging-wall. By inverting the generated interferograms, following the Okada analytical approach, the modelling results account for two sources related to main shock and more energetic aftershock. Through Finite Element numerical modelling that jointly exploits DInSAR deformation measurements and structural-geological data, we reconstruct the 3D source of the Amatrice 2016 normal fault earthquake which well fit the main shock. The inversion shows that the co-seismic displacement area was partitioned on two distinct en echelon fault planes, which at the main event hypocentral depth (8 km) merge in one single WSW-dipping surface. Slip peaks were higher along the southern half of the Vettore fault, lower along the northern half of Gorzano fault and null in the relay zone between the two faults; field evidence of co-seismic surface rupture are coherent with the reconstructed scenario. The following seismic sequence was characterized by numerous aftershocks located southeast and northwest of the epicenter which decreased in frequency and magnitude until the end of October, when a MW 5.9 event occurred on 26th October about 25 km to the NW of the previous mainshock. Then, on 30th October, a third large event of magnitude MW 6.5 nucleated below the town of Norcia, striking the area between the two preceding events and filling the gap between the previous ruptures. Also in this case, we exploit a large dataset of DInSAR and GPS measurements to investigate

  7. Seismic source study of the Racha-Dzhava (Georgia) earthquake from aftershocks and broad-band teleseismic body-wave records: An example of active nappe tectonics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fuenzalida, H.; Rivera, L.; Haessler, H.; Legrand, D.; Philip, H.; Dorbath, L.; McCormack, D.; Arefiev, S.; Langer, C.; Cisternas, A.

    1997-01-01

    The Racha-Dzhava earthquake (Ms = 7.0) that occurred on 1991 April 29 at 09:12:48.1 GMT in the southern border of the Great Caucasus is the biggest event ever recorded in the region, stronger than the Spitak earthquake (Ms = 6.9) of 1988. A field expedition to the epicentral area was organised and a temporary seismic network of 37 stations was deployed to record the aftershock activity. A very precise image of the aftershock distribution is obtained, showing an elongated cloud oriented N105??, with one branch trending N310?? in the western part. The southernmost part extends over 80 km, with the depth ranging from 0 to 15 km, and dips north. The northern branch, which is about 30 km long, shows activity that ranges in depth from 5 to 15 km. The complex thrust dips northwards. A stress-tensor inversion from P-wave first-motion polarities shows a state of triaxial compression, with the major principal axis oriented roughly N-S, the minor principal axis being vertical. Body-waveform inversion of teleseismic seismograms was performed for the main shock, which can be divided into four subevents with a total rupture-time duration of 22 s. The most important part of the seismic moment was released by a gentle northerly dipping thrust. The model is consistent with the compressive tectonics of the region and is in agreement with the aftershock distribution and the stress tensor deduced from the aftershocks. The focal mechanisms of the three largest aftershocks were also inverted from body-wave records. The April 29th (Ms = 6.1) and May 5th (Ms = 5.4) aftershocks have thrust mechanisms on roughly E-W-oriented planes, similar to the main shock. Surprisingly, the June 15th (Ms = 6.2) aftershock shows a thrust fault striking N-S. This mechanism is explained by the structural control of the rupture along the east-dipping geometry of the Dzirula Massif close to the Borzhomi-Kazbeg strike-slip fault. In fact, the orientation and shape of the stress tensor produce a thrust on a N

  8. The Al Hoceima earthquake sequence of 1994, 2004 and 2016: Stress transfer and poro-elasticity in the Rif and Alboran Sea region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kariche, Jughurta; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Timoulali, Youssef; Cetin, Esra; Toussaint, Renaud

    2017-04-01

    The 25 January 2016 earthquake (Mw 6.3) follows in sequence the 26 May 1994 earthquake (Mw 6.0) and the 24 February 2004 earthquake (Mw 6.4) in the Rif Mountains and Alboran Sea. The earlier two seismic events which were destructive took place on inland conjugate faults, and the third event occurred on an offshore fault. These earthquake sequences occurred within a period of 22 years at 25 km distance and 11 - 16-km-depth. The three events have similar strike-slip focal mechanism solutions with NNE-SSW trending left lateral faulting for the 1994 and 2016 events and NW-SE trending right-lateral faulting for the 2004 event. This shallow seismic sequence offers the possibility a) to model the change in Coulomb Failure Function (CFF with μ' = 0.4 including the pore pressure change) and understand fault-rupture interaction, and b) to analyze the effect of pore-fluid on the rupture mechanism, and infer the clock-time advance. The variation of static stress change has a direct impact on the 1994 mainshock, aftershocks and related positive lobes of the 2004 earthquake rupture with a stress change increase of 0.7 - 1.1 bar. Similarly, the 2004 mainshock and aftershocks indicate loading zones with a stress change (> 0.25 bar) that includes the 2016 earthquake rupture. The tectonic loading 19 - 24 nanostrain/yr obtained from the seismicity catalogue of Morocco are comparable to the 5 1017 N.m/yr seismic strain release in the Rif Mountains. The seismic sequence is apparently controlled by the poro-elastic properties of the seismogenic layer that depend on the undrained and drained fluid condition. The short interseismic period between mainshocks and higher rate of aftershocks with relatively large magnitudes (4< Mw <5.5) implies the pore-fluid physical effect in an undrained condition. The stress-rate ranges between 461 - 582 Pa/yr with a CFF of 0.2 - 1.1 bar. The computed clock-time advance reaches 239 ±22 years in agreement with the 10 years delay between mainshocks. The

  9. Imaging and Understanding Foreshock and Aftershock Behavior Around the 2014 Iquique, Northern Chile, Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, H.; Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Newman, A. V.; Hu, S.; Williamson, A.

    2014-12-01

    On April 1st, 2014, a moment magnitude (MW) 8.2 earthquake occurred offshore Iquique, Northern Chile. There were numerous smaller earthquakes preceding and following the mainshock, making it an ideal case to study the spatio-temporal relation among these events and their association with the mainshock. We applied a matched-filter technique to detect previously missing foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 Iquique earthquake. Using more than 900 template events recorded by 19 broadband seismic stations (network code CX) operated by the GEOFON Program of GFZ Potsdam, we found 4392 earthquakes between March 1st and April 3rd, 2014, including more than 30 earthquakes with magnitude larger than 4 that were previously missed in the catalog from the Chile National Seismological Center. Additionally, we found numerous small earthquakes with magnitudes between 1 and 2 preceding the largest foreshock, an MW 6.7 event occurring on March 16th, approximately 2 weeks before the Iquique mainshock. We observed that the foreshocks migrated northward at a speed of approximately 6 km/day. Using a finite fault slip model of the mainshock determined from teleseismic waveform inversion (Hayes, 2014), we calculated the Coulomb stress changes in the nearby regions of the mainshock. We found that there was ~200% increase in seismicity in the areas with increased Coulomb stress. Our next step is to evaluate the Coulomb stress changes associated with earlier foreshocks and their roles in triggering later foreshocks, and possibly the mainshock. For this, we plan to create a fault model of the temporal evolution of the Coulomb behavior along the interface with time, assuming Wells and Coppersmith (1994) type fault parameters. These results will be compared with double-difference relocations (using HypoDD), presenting a more accurate understanding of the spatial-temporal evolution of foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

  10. Artificial seismic acceleration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Felzer, Karen R.; Page, Morgan T.; Michael, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    In their 2013 paper, Bouchon, Durand, Marsan, Karabulut, 3 and Schmittbuhl (BDMKS) claim to see significant accelerating seismicity before M 6.5 interplate mainshocks, but not before intraplate mainshocks, reflecting a preparatory process before large events. We concur with the finding of BDMKS that their interplate dataset has significantly more fore- shocks than their intraplate dataset; however, we disagree that the foreshocks are predictive of large events in particular. Acceleration in stacked foreshock sequences has been seen before and has been explained by the cascade model, in which earthquakes occasionally trigger aftershocks larger than themselves4. In this model, the time lags between the smaller mainshocks and larger aftershocks follow the inverse power law common to all aftershock sequences, creating an apparent acceleration when stacked (see Supplementary Information).

  11. Investigations of Periodic Disturbances on Seismic Aftershock Recordings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liebsch, Mattes; Gorschlüter, Felix; Knoop, Jan-Frederik; Altmann, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) runs the International Monitoring System (IMS) to detect possible violations of the treaty. The seismic sensors of the IMS are set up to detect every underground explosion with a yield of 1 kT TNT equivalent or even better everywhere on the world. Under consideration of all IMS data the hypocentre of a large underground explosion is located within an area of about 1000 sq km. To verify if it was a violation of the Test-Ban Treaty the CTBTO (after CTBT entry into force) is allowed to carry out an on-site inspection (OSI) in the area of suspicion. During an OSI the hypocentre is to be located much more precisely; for this a local seismic aftershock monitoring system (SAMS) can be installed to detect small seismic events caused as a consequence of the explosion, such as relaxation of the rock around the cavity. However the magnitude of these aftershock signals is extremely weak. Other difficulties arise from other seismic signals in the inspection area, for example caused by vehicles of the inspectors, from coupling of airborne signals to the ground, or even by intended attempts to disturb the OSI. While the aftershock signals have a pulsed shape, man-made seismic signals (primarily created by engines) usually show periodic characteristics and thus are representable as a sum of sine functions and their harmonics. A mathematical expression for the Hann-windowed discrete Fourier transform of the underlying sine is used to characterise every such disturbance by the amplitude, frequency and phase. The contributions of these sines are computed and subtracted from the complex spectrum sequentially. Synthetic sines superposed to real signals, orders of magnitude stronger than the latter, can be removed successfully. Removal of periodic content from the signals of a helicopter overflight reduces the amplitude by a factor 3.3 when the frequencies are approximately constant. To reduce or prevent disturbing seismic

  12. Investigating the Local Three-dimensional Velocity Structure of the 2008 Taoyuan Earthquake Sequence of Kaohsiung, Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shih, M. H.; Huang, B. S.

    2016-12-01

    March 4, 2008, a moderate earthquake (ML 5.2) occurred in Taoyuan district of Kaohsiung County in the southern Taiwan. It was followed by numerous aftershocks in the following 48 hours, including three events with magnitude larger than 4. The Taoyuan earthquake sequence occurred during the TAIGER (Taiwan Integrated Geodynamic Research) project which is to image lithospheric structure of Taiwan orogeny. The high-resolution waveform data of this sequence were well-recorded by a large number of recording stations belong to several different permanent and TAIGER networks all around Taiwan. We had collected the waveform data and archived to a mega database. Then, we had identified 2,340 events from database in the preliminary locating process by using 1-D velocity model. In this study, we applied the double-difference tomography to investigate not only the fault geometry of the main shock but also the detailed 3-D velocity structure in this area. A total of 3,034 events were selected from preliminary locating result and CWBSN catalog in the vicinity. The resulting aftershocks are extended along the NE-SW direction and located on a 45° SE-dipping plane which agrees to one of the nodal planes of Global CMT solution (strike = 45°, dip = 40° and rake = 119°). We can identify a clear low-velocity area which is enclosed by events next to the main shock in the final 3D velocity model. We also recognized a 45°-dipping zone which is extended to the ground surface with low-velocity; meanwhile, velocity structure variation in study area correspond with major geologic units in Taiwan.

  13. Observation of aftershocks of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake for estimation of local site effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamanaka, Hiroaki; Motoki, Kentaro; Etoh, Kiminobu; Murayama, Masanari; Komaba, Nobuhiko

    2004-03-01

    Observation of aftershocks of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake was conducted in the southern part of the Tokachi basin in Hokkaido, Japan for estimation of local site effects. We installed accelerographs at 12 sites in Chokubetsu, Toyokoro, and Taiki areas, where large strong motion records were obtained during the main shock at stations of the K-NET and KiK-net. The stations of the aftershock observation are situated with different geological conditions and some of the sites were installed on Pleistocene layers as reference sites. The site amplifications are investigated using spectral ratio of S-waves from the aftershocks. The S-wave amplification factor is dominant at a period of about 1 second at the site near the KiK-net site in Toyokoro. This amplification fits well with calculated 1D amplification of S-wave in alluvial layers with a thickness of 50 meters. In addition to the site effects, we detected nonlinear amplification of the soft soils only during the main shock. The site effects at the strong motion site of the K-NET at Chokubetsu have a dominate peak at a period of 0.4 seconds. This amplification is due to soft soils having a thickness of about 13 meters. Contrary to the results at the two areas, site effects are not significantly different at the stations in the Taiki area, because of similarity on surface geological conditions.

  14. Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Llenos, A.L.; McGuire, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    Aseismic deformation transients such as fluid flow, magma migration, and slow slip can trigger changes in seismicity rate. We present a method that can detect these seismicity rate variations and utilize these anomalies to constrain the underlying variations in stressing rate. Because ordinary aftershock sequences often obscure changes in the background seismicity caused by aseismic processes, we combine the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model that describes aftershock sequences well and the physically based rate- and state-dependent friction seismicity model into a single seismicity rate model that models both aftershock activity and changes in background seismicity rate. We implement this model into a data assimilation algorithm that inverts seismicity catalogs to estimate space-time variations in stressing rate. We evaluate the method using a synthetic catalog, and then apply it to a catalog of M???1.5 events that occurred in the Salton Trough from 1990 to 2009. We validate our stressing rate estimates by comparing them to estimates from a geodetically derived slip model for a large creep event on the Obsidian Buttes fault. The results demonstrate that our approach can identify large aseismic deformation transients in a multidecade long earthquake catalog and roughly constrain the absolute magnitude of the stressing rate transients. Our method can therefore provide a way to detect aseismic transients in regions where geodetic resolution in space or time is poor. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  15. Modeling of the Nano- and Picoseismicity Rate Changes Resulting from Static Stress Triggering due to Small (MW2.2) Event Recorded at Mponeng Deep Gold Mine, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozlowska, M.; Orlecka-Sikora, B.; Kwiatek, G.; Boettcher, M. S.; Dresen, G. H.

    2014-12-01

    Static stress changes following large earthquakes are known to affect the rate and spatio-temporal distribution of the aftershocks. Here we utilize a unique dataset of M ≥ -3.4 earthquakes following a MW 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa, to investigate this process for nano- and pico- scale seismicity at centimeter length scales in shallow, mining conditions. The aftershock sequence was recorded during a quiet interval in the mine and thus enabled us to perform the analysis using Dietrich's (1994) rate and state dependent friction law. The formulation for earthquake productivity requires estimation of Coulomb stress changes due to the mainshock, the reference seismicity rate, frictional resistance parameter, and the duration of aftershock relaxation time. We divided the area into six depth intervals and for each we estimated the parameters and modeled the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity rates after the stress perturbation. Comparing the modeled patterns of seismicity with the observed distribution we found that while the spatial patterns match well, the rate of modeled aftershocks is lower than the observed rate. To test our model, we used four metrics of the goodness-of-fit evaluation. Testing procedure allowed rejecting the null hypothesis of no significant difference between seismicity rates only for one depth interval containing the mainshock, for the other, no significant differences have been found. Results show that mining-induced earthquakes may be followed by a stress relaxation expressed through aftershocks located on the rupture plane and in regions of positive Coulomb stress change. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the main features of the temporal and spatial distribution of very small, mining-induced earthquakes at shallow depths can be successfully determined using rate- and state-based stress modeling.

  16. Extending earthquakes' reach through cascading.

    PubMed

    Marsan, David; Lengliné, Olivier

    2008-02-22

    Earthquakes, whatever their size, can trigger other earthquakes. Mainshocks cause aftershocks to occur, which in turn activate their own local aftershock sequences, resulting in a cascade of triggering that extends the reach of the initial mainshock. A long-lasting difficulty is to determine which earthquakes are connected, either directly or indirectly. Here we show that this causal structure can be found probabilistically, with no a priori model nor parameterization. Large regional earthquakes are found to have a short direct influence in comparison to the overall aftershock sequence duration. Relative to these large mainshocks, small earthquakes collectively have a greater effect on triggering. Hence, cascade triggering is a key component in earthquake interactions.

  17. The 7.9 Denali Fault Earthquake: Aftershock Locations, Moment Tensors and Focal Mechanisms from the Regional Seismic Network Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratchkovski, N. A.; Hansen, R. A.; Christensen, D.; Kore, K.

    2002-12-01

    The largest earthquake ever recorded on the Denali fault system (magnitude 7.9) struck central Alaska on November 3, 2002. It was preceded by a magnitude 6.7 foreshock on October 23. This earlier earthquake and its zone of aftershocks were located slightly to the west of the 7.9 quake. Aftershock locations and surface slip observations from the 7.9 quake indicate that the rupture was predominately unilateral in the eastward direction. Near Mentasta Lake, a village that experienced some of the worst damage in the quake, the surface rupture scar turns from the Denali fault to the adjacent Totschunda fault, which trends toward more southeasterly toward the Canadian border. Overall, the geologists found that measurable scarps indicate that the north side of the Denali fault moved to the east and vertically up relative to the south. Maximum offsets on the Denali fault were 8.8 meters at the Tok Highway cutoff, and were 2.2 meters on the Totschunda fault. The Alaska regional seismic network consists of over 250 station sites, operated by the Alaska Earthquake Information Center (AEIC), the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). Over 25 sites are equipped with the broad-band sensors, some of which have in addition the strong motion sensors. The rest of the stations are either 1 or 3-component short-period instruments. The data from these stations are collected, processed and archived at the AEIC. The AEIC staff installed a temporary network with over 20 instruments following the 6.7 Nenana Mountain and the 7.9 events. Prior to the M 7.9 Denali Fault event, the automatic earthquake detection system at AEIC was locating between 15 and 30 events per day. After the event, the system had over 200-400 automatic locations per day for at least 10 days following the 7.9 event. The processing of the data is ongoing with the priority given to the larger events. The cumulative length of the 6.7 and 7.9 aftershock locations along the Denali

  18. Comparative modeling without implicit sequence alignments.

    PubMed

    Kolinski, Andrzej; Gront, Dominik

    2007-10-01

    The number of known protein sequences is about thousand times larger than the number of experimentally solved 3D structures. For more than half of the protein sequences a close or distant structural analog could be identified. The key starting point in a classical comparative modeling is to generate the best possible sequence alignment with a template or templates. With decreasing sequence similarity, the number of errors in the alignments increases and these errors are the main causes of the decreasing accuracy of the molecular models generated. Here we propose a new approach to comparative modeling, which does not require the implicit alignment - the model building phase explores geometric, evolutionary and physical properties of a template (or templates). The proposed method requires prior identification of a template, although the initial sequence alignment is ignored. The model is built using a very efficient reduced representation search engine CABS to find the best possible superposition of the query protein onto the template represented as a 3D multi-featured scaffold. The criteria used include: sequence similarity, predicted secondary structure consistency, local geometric features and hydrophobicity profile. For more difficult cases, the new method qualitatively outperforms existing schemes of comparative modeling. The algorithm unifies de novo modeling, 3D threading and sequence-based methods. The main idea is general and could be easily combined with other efficient modeling tools as Rosetta, UNRES and others.

  19. Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress

  20. Structural Constraints On The Spatial Distribution of Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCloskey, J.; Nalbant, S. S.; Steacy, S.; Nostro, C.; Scotti, O.; Baumont, D.

    Real-time, forward modelling of spatial distributions of potentially damaging after- shocks by calculating stress perturbations due to large earthquakes may produce so- cially useful, time- dependent hazard estimates in the foreseeable future. Such calcula- tions, however, rely on the resolution of a stress perturbation tensor (SPT) onto planes whose geometry is unknown and decisions as to the orientations of these planes have a first order effect on the geometry of the resulting hazard distributions. Commonly, these decisions are based on the assumption that structures optimally oriented for fail- ure in the regional stress field, exist everywhere and stress maps are produced by resolving onto these orientations. Here we investigate this proposition using a 3D cal- culation for the optimally oriented planes (OOPs) for the 1992 Landers earthquake (M = 7.3). We examine the encouraged mechanisms as a function of location and show that enhancement for failure exists over a much wider area than in the equivalent, and more usual, 2.5D calculations. Mechanisms predicted in these areas are not consistent with the local structural geology, however, and corresponding aftershocks are gener- ally not observed. We argue that best hazard estimates will result from geometrically restricted versions of the OOP concept in which observed structure constrains possible orientations for failure.

  1. Estimating seismic site response in Christchurch City (New Zealand) from dense low-cost aftershock arrays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kaiser, Anna E.; Benites, Rafael A.; Chung, Angela I.; Haines, A. John; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Fry, Bill

    2011-01-01

    The Mw 7.1 September 2010 Darfield earthquake, New Zealand, produced widespread damage and liquefaction ~40 km from the epicentre in Christchurch city. It was followed by the even more destructive Mw 6.2 February 2011 Christchurch aftershock directly beneath the city’s southern suburbs. Seismic data recorded during the two large events suggest that site effects contributed to the variations in ground motion observed throughout Christchurch city. We use densely-spaced aftershock recordings of the Darfield earthquake to investigate variations in local seismic site response within the Christchurch urban area. Following the Darfield main shock we deployed a temporary array of ~180 low-cost 14-bit MEMS accelerometers linked to the global Quake-Catcher Network (QCN). These instruments provided dense station coverage (spacing ~2 km) to complement existing New Zealand national network strong motion stations (GeoNet) within Christchurch city. Well-constrained standard spectral ratios were derived for GeoNet stations using a reference station on Miocene basalt rock in the south of the city. For noisier QCN stations, the method was adapted to find a maximum likelihood estimate of spectral ratio amplitude taking into account the variance of noise at the respective stations. Spectral ratios for QCN stations are similar to nearby GeoNet stations when the maximum likelihood method is used. Our study suggests dense low-cost accelerometer aftershock arrays can provide useful information on local-scale ground motion properties for use in microzonation. Preliminary results indicate higher amplifications north of the city centre and strong high-frequency amplification in the small, shallower basin of Heathcote Valley.

  2. Determination of the fault plane and rupture size of the 2013 Santa Cruz earthquake, Bolivia, 5.2 Mw, by relative location of the aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivadeneyra-Vera, C.; Assumpção, M.; Minaya, E.; Aliaga, P.; Avila, G.

    2016-11-01

    The Central Andes of southern Bolivia is a highly seismic region with many active faults, that could generate earthquakes up to 8.9 Mw. In 2013, an earthquake of 5.2 Mw occurred in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, in the sub-Andean belt, close to the Mandeyapecua fault, one of the most important reverse faults in Bolivia. Five larger aftershocks were reported by the International Seismological Centre (ISC) and 33 smaller aftershocks were recorded by the San Calixto Observatory (OSC) in the two months after the mainshock. Distances between epicenters of the events were up to 36 km, which is larger than expected for an earthquake of this magnitude. Using data from South American regional stations and the relative location technique with Rayleigh waves, the epicenters of the five larger aftershocks of the Santa Cruz series were determined in relation to the mainshock. This method enabled to achieve epicentral locations with uncertainties smaller than 1 km. Additionally, using data of three Bolivian stations (MOC, SIV and LPAZ) eight smaller aftershocks, recorded by the OSC, were relocated through correlation of P and S waves. The results show a NNW-SSE trend of epicenters and suggest an E dipping plane. The maximum distance between the aftershocks is 14 km, which is not consistent with the expected subsurface rupture length, in accordance with the magnitude of the mainshock. The events are located away from the Mandeyapecua fault and show an opposite dip, demonstrating that these events were generated by another fault in the area, that had not been well studied yet.

  3. Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyake, H.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

  4. The 2014 Mihoub earthquake (Mw4.3), northern Algeria: empirical Green's function analysis of the mainshock and the largest aftershock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semmane, F.; Benabdeloued, B. Y. N.; Heddar, A.; Khelif, M. F.

    2017-11-01

    On November 15, 2014, an Mw4.3 earthquake occurred 2 km west of Mihoub village, 60 km SE of Algiers. In this study, we retrieve the relative source-time functions of the mainshock and largest aftershock (Mw3.9) for rupture analysis using the empirical Green's function method. The two events are nearly colocated with a smaller aftershock (Mw3.5), which is treated as the empirical Green's function. Moreover, these three events have similar focal mechanisms, suggesting that deconvolution is well posed in this case. The three events were recorded by nine stations of the Algerian permanent network. We use mainly P-wave data. The focal mechanism solution shows dominant reverse faulting with a strong strike-slip component. The two nodal planes align almost E-W, dipping to the south, and NNE-SSW, dipping to the NW, respectively; the fault and auxiliary planes cannot be resolved from hypocenter locations alone because too few aftershocks were recorded by the permanent network. The results show unilateral rupture propagation to the ENE and complex rupture with multiple episodes for the mainshock. The largest aftershock shows similar behavior with slightly less pronounced directivity at some sites. The rupture directivity for the mainshock is estimated at about N66° E, and the rupture velocity is Vr = 0.66 β. The E-W nodal plane of the best-fit focal mechanism is the preferred fault plane because it best agrees with the directivity direction and is consistent with the E-W faulting that dominates in the region.

  5. Some characteristics of the complex El Mayor-Cucapah, MW7.2, April 4, 2010, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake, from well-located aftershock data from local and regional networks.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frez, J.; Nava Pichardo, F. A.; Acosta, J.; Munguia, L.; Carlos, J.; García, R.

    2015-12-01

    Aftershocks from the El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC), MW7.2, April 4, 2010, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake, were recorded over two months by a 31 station local array (Reftek RT130 seismographs loaned from IRIS-PASSCAL), complemented by regional data from SCSN, and CICESE. The resulting data base includes 518 aftershocks with ML ≥ 3.0, plus 181 smaller events. Reliable hypocenters were determined using HYPODD and a velocity structure determined from refraction data for a mesa located to the west of the Mexicali-Imperial Valley. Aftershock hypocenters show that the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake was a multiple event comprising two or three different ruptures of which the last one constituted the main event. The main event rupture, which extends in a roughly N45°W direction, is complex with well-defined segments having different characteristics. The main event central segment, located close to the first event epicenter is roughly vertical, the northwest segment dips ~68°NE, while the two southeast segments dip ~60°SW and ~52°SW, respectively, which agrees with results of previous studies based on teleseismic long periods and on GPS-INSAR. All main rupture aftershock hypocenters have depths above 10-11km and, except for the central segment, they delineate the edges of zones with largest coseismic displacement. The two southern segments show seismicity concentrated below 5km and 3.5km, respectively; the paucity of shallow seismicity may be caused by the thick layer of non-consolidated sediments in this region. The ruptures delineated by aftershocks in the southern regions correspond to the Indiviso fault, unidentified until the occurrence of the EMC earthquake. The first event was relocated together with the aftershocks; the epicenter lies slightly westwards of published locations, but it definitely does not lie on, or close to, the main rupture. The focal mechanism of the first event, based on first arrival polarities, is predominantly strike-slip; the focal plane

  6. Are Earthquakes Predictable? A Study on Magnitude Correlations in Earthquake Catalog and Experimental Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrianaki, K.; Ross, G.; Sammonds, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    The clustering of earthquakes in time and space is widely accepted, however the existence of correlations in earthquake magnitudes is more questionable. In standard models of seismic activity, it is usually assumed that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Our work seeks to test this assumption by analysing magnitude correlation between earthquakes and their aftershocks. To separate mainshocks from aftershocks, we perform stochastic declustering based on the widely used Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which allows us to then compare the average magnitudes of aftershock sequences to that of their mainshock. The results of earthquake magnitude correlations were compared with acoustic emissions (AE) from laboratory analog experiments, as fracturing generates both AE at the laboratory scale and earthquakes on a crustal scale. Constant stress and constant strain rate experiments were done on Darley Dale sandstone under confining pressure to simulate depth of burial. Microcracking activity inside the rock volume was analyzed by the AE technique as a proxy for earthquakes. Applying the ETAS model to experimental data allowed us to validate our results and provide for the first time a holistic view on the correlation of earthquake magnitudes. Additionally we search the relationship between the conditional intensity estimates of the ETAS model and the earthquake magnitudes. A positive relation would suggest the existence of magnitude correlations. The aim of this study is to observe any trends of dependency between the magnitudes of aftershock earthquakes and the earthquakes that trigger them.

  7. The Al Hoceima earthquake sequence of 1994, 2004 and 2016: Stress transfer and poroelasticity in the Rif and Alboran Sea region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kariche, J.; Meghraoui, M.; Timoulali, Y.; Cetin, E.; Toussaint, R.

    2018-01-01

    The 2016 January 25 earthquake (Mw 6.3) follows in sequence from the1994 May 26 earthquake (Mw 6.0) and the 2004 February 24 earthquake (Mw 6.4) in the Rif Mountains and Alboran Sea. The earlier two seismic events which were destructive took place on inland conjugate faults, and the third event occurred on an offshore fault. These earthquake sequences occurred within a period of 22 yr at ˜25 km distance and 11-16-km depth. The three events have similar strike-slip focal mechanism solutions with NNE-SSW trending left-lateral faulting for the 1994 and 2016 events and NW-SE trending right-lateral faulting for the 2004 event. This shallow seismic sequence offers the possibility (i) to model the change in Coulomb Failure Function (ΔCFF with low μ΄ including the pore pressure change) and understand fault-rupture interaction, and (ii) to analyse the effect of pore fluid on the rupture mechanism, and infer the clock-time advance. The variation of static stress change has a direct impact on the main shock, aftershocks and related positive lobes of the 2004 earthquake rupture with a stress change increase of 0.7-1.1 bar. Similarly, the 2004 main shock and aftershocks indicate loading zones with a stress change (>0.25 bar) that includes the 2016 earthquake rupture. The tectonic loading of 19-24 nanostrain yr-1 obtained from the seismicity catalogue of Morocco is comparable to the 5.0 × 1017 N.m yr-1 seismic strain release in the Rif Mountains. The seismic sequence is apparently controlled by the poroelastic properties of the seismogenic layer that depend on the undrained and drained fluid conditions. The short interseismic period between main shocks and higher rate of aftershocks with relatively large magnitudes (4 < Mw < 5.5) implies the pore-fluid physical effect in undrained and drained conditions. The stress-rate ranges between 461 and 582 Pa yr-1 with a ΔCFF of 0.2-1.1 bar. The computed clock-time advance reaches 239 ± 22 yr in agreement with the ˜10 yr delay

  8. Investigation of the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Chilean earthquake integrating aftershock analysis, back-projection imaging and cGPS results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clévédé, E.; Satriano, C.; Bukchin, B.; Lancieri, M.; Fuenzalida, A.; Vilotte, J.; Lyon-Caen, H.; Vigny, C.; Socquet, A.; Aranda, C.; Campos, J. A.; Scientific Team of the Lia Montessus de Ballore (Cnrs-Insu, U. Chile)

    2010-12-01

    The Mw 8.8 earthquake in central Chile ruptured more than 400 km along the subduction bound between the Nazca and the South American plates. The aftershock distribution clearly shows that this earthquake filled a well-known seismic gap, corresponding to rupture extension of the 1835 earthquake. The triggered post-seismic activity extends farther north of the gap, partially overlapping the 1985 and the 1960 Valparaiso earthquakes. However, the analysis of continuous GPS (cGPS) recordings, and back projection imaging of teleseismic body wave energy, indicate that the rupture stopped south of Valparaiso, around -33.5 degrees of latitude. An important question is how far the rupture actually extended to the north and the potential relation between the northernmost aftershock activity and remaining asperities within the ruptured zone of the previous Valparaiso earthquakes. The extension of the rupture offshore, towards west, also deserves further investigation. The aftershock distribution and the back propagation analysis support the hypothesis that, in the northern part, the rupture may have reached the surface at the trench. In this work, we performed a CMT and depth location study for more than 10 of the immediate largest aftershocks using teleseismic surface wave analysis constrained by P-wave polarity. In parallel, a detailed analysis of aftershocks in the northern part of the rupture, between 2010-03-11 and 2010-05-13, have been performed using the data from the station of the Chilean Servicio Sismológico Nacional (SSN), and of the post-seismic network, deployed by the French CNRS-INSU, GFZ, IRIS, and Caltech. We accurately hand-picked 153 larger events, which have been located using a non-linear probabilistic code, with improved depth location. Focal mechanisms have been computed for the larger events. Those results have been integrated with the analysis of cGPS and teleseismic back projection, and the overall kinematic of the Maule earthquake is discussed as

  9. Tomographic models and seismotectonics of the Reggio Emilia region, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciaccio, M. G.; Chiarabba, C.

    2002-02-01

    The aim of this study is to define the Vp and Vp/Vs structure of the fault zone ruptured by the M L 5.1 earthquake of October 15, 1996 which occurred near Reggio Emilia (central-northern Italy). A 1-month-long seismic sequence followed the mainshock and occurred in a small region along the outer border of the northern Apenninic belt, at depth ranging between 10 and 17 km. P- and S-wave arrival times from 304 aftershocks recorded by two local dense seismic arrays installed in the epicentral region have been inverted to obtain one- and three-dimensional velocity models by using state of the art local earthquake tomographic techniques. Velocity models and aftershock relocation help us to infer the seismotectonic of the region. Earthquakes originated along a NW-dipping backthrust of a NE-trending main thrust, composing the western part of the broad Ferrara Arc. A main high Vp and high Vp/Vs region delineates a pop-up structure in the center of the area. The high Vp/Vs within the pop-up structure supports the presence of a zone with increased pore pressure. The hypocentral depth of both mainshock and aftershocks is greater than those usually found for the main seismogenic regions of the Apenninic belt. P-wave velocity values in the seismogenic area, obtained by tomography, are compatible with rocks of the Mesozoic cover and suggest that seismicity occurred within the Mesozoic units stack at present by compressional tectonics.

  10. Geophysical investigation of the Denali fault and Alaska Range orogen within the aftershock zone of the October-November 2002, M = 7.9 Denali fault earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fisher, M.A.; Nokleberg, W.J.; Ratchkovski, N.A.; Pellerin, L.; Glen, J.M.; Brocher, T.M.; Booker, J.

    2004-01-01

    The aftershock zone of the 3 November 2002, M = 7.9 earthquake that ruptured along the right-slip Denali fault in south-central Alaska has been investigated by using gravity and magnetic, magnetotelluric, and deep-crustal, seismic reflection data as well as outcrop geology and earthquake seismology. Strong seismic reflections from within the Alaska Range orogen north of the Denali fault dip as steeply as 25°N and extend to depths as great as 20 km. These reflections outline a relict crustal architecture that in the past 20 yr has produced little seismicity. The Denali fault is nonreflective, probably because this fault dips steeply to vertical. The most intriguing finding from geophysical data is that earthquake aftershocks occurred above a rock body, with low electrical resistivity (>10 Ω·m), that is at depths below ∼10 km. Aftershocks of the Denali fault earthquake have mainly occurred shallower than 10 km. A high geothermal gradient may cause the shallow seismicity. Another possibility is that the low resistivity results from fluids, which could have played a role in locating the aftershock zone by reducing rock friction within the middle and lower crust.

  11. Seismic amplitude measurements suggest foreshocks have different focal mechanisms than aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lindh, A.; Fuis, G.; Mantis, C.

    1978-01-01

    The ratio of the amplitudes of P and S waves from the foreshocks and aftershocks to three recent California earthquakes show a characteristic change at the time of the main events. As this ratio is extremely sensitive to small changes in the orientation of the fault plane, a small systematic change in stress or fault configuration in the source region may be inferred. These results suggest an approach to the recognition of foreshocks based on simple measurements of the amplitudes of seismic waves. Copyright ?? 1978 AAAS.

  12. The Impressive 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquake Sequence and the Geologic Record of at Least Two Other Sequences in the Last 1000 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, R. A.

    2011-12-01

    The currently active New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) was the source of a series of major earthquakes and hundreds of aftershocks that began on December 16, 1811 and continued through 1812. At the time, the region was sparsely populated but today it is home to about 12 million people. Four earthquakes in this 1811-1812 sequence had magnitudes (M) from about 6.8-8.0 and were felt widely across the eastern U.S. as far as the Atlantic seaboard 1,700 km away. About a dozen aftershocks in the M5.0-6.3 range were also felt widely across the eastern U.S. The first earthquake occurred December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m. followed by the largest aftershock in the sequence (M6.8-7.0) at about 7:15 a.m.; the second main shock at 9 a.m. on January 23, 1812; and the third main shock on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These four principle shocks were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. Because of low seismic attenuation in the eastern U.S., the area of strong shaking of the December 16 main shock was about 10 times larger than that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. The NMSZ produced large earthquakes in the M6.0-6.6 range in 1843 and 1895 and currently generates about 150 earthquakes annually in the M1.5-4 range. Though no instrumental data for the 1811-1812 earthquakes exist, first-hand accounts indicate that the mainshocks were followed by hundreds of aftershocks that lasted for months. They caused general alarm from Detroit (800 km) to New Orleans (700 km). In the epicentral region, Memphis, Tenn. was not yet established, but many homes were damaged in the 5500-inhabitant town of St. Louis, Mo. (250 km). The frontier trading towns of Little Prairie (now Caruthersville) and New Madrid, Mo., were severely damaged and temporarily evacuated. The 1811-1812 sequence left its mark on the landscape that endures today. During the earthquake, witnesses reported that the ground rose, fell, and cracked, and that trees snapped. Large landslides were

  13. Earthquake forecasting during the complex Amatrice-Norcia seismic sequence.

    PubMed

    Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016-2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences.

  14. Earthquake forecasting during the complex Amatrice-Norcia seismic sequence

    PubMed Central

    Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016–2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences. PMID:28924610

  15. Source parameters of the 2014 Ms6.5 Ludian earthquake sequence and their implications on the seismogenic structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Y.

    2015-12-01

    On August 3, 2014, an Ms6.5 earthquake struck Ludian county, Zhaotong city in Yunnan province, China. Although this earthquake is not very big, it caused abnormal severe damages. Thus, study on the causes of the serious damages of this moderate strong earthquake may help us to evaluate seismic hazards for similar earthquakes. Besides the factors which directly relate to the damages, such as site effects, quality of buildings, seismogenic structures and the characteristics of the mainshock and the aftershocks may also responsible for the seismic hazards. Since focal mechanism solution and centroid depth provide key information of earthquake source properties and tectonic stress field, and the focal depth is one of the most important parameters which control the damages of earthquakes, obtaining precise FMSs and focal depths of the Ludian earthquake sequence may help us to determine the detailed geometric features of the rupture fault and the seismogenic environment. In this work we obtained the FMSs and centroid depths of the Ludian earthquake and its Ms>3.0 aftershocks by the revised CAP method, and further verified some focal depths using the depth phase method. Combining the FMSs of the mainshock and the strong aftershocks, as well as their spatial distributions, and the seismogenic environment of the source region, we can make the following characteristics of the Ludian earthquake sequence and its seismogenic structure: (1) The Ludian earthquake is a left-lateral strike slip earthquake, with magnitude of about Mw6.1. The FMS of nodal plane I is 75o/56o/180o for strike, dip and rake angles, and 165o/90o/34ofor the other nodal plane. (2) The Ludian earthquake is very shallow with the optimum centroid depth of ~3 km, which is consistent with the strong ground shaking and the surface rupture observed by field survey and strengthens the damages of the Ludian earthquake. (3) The Ludian Earthquake should occur on the NNW trend BXF. Because two later aftershocks

  16. Maximal radius of the aftershock zone in earthquake networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mezentsev, A. Yu.; Hayakawa, M.

    2009-09-01

    In this paper, several seismoactive regions were investigated (Japan, Southern California and two tectonically distinct Japanese subregions) and structural seismic constants were estimated for each region. Using the method for seismic clustering detection proposed by Baiesi and Paczuski [M. Baiesi, M. Paczuski, Phys. Rev. E 69 (2004) 066106; M. Baiesi, M. Paczuski, Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. (2005) 1607-7946], we obtained the equation of the aftershock zone (AZ). It was shown that the consideration of a finite velocity of seismic signal leads to the natural appearance of maximal possible radius of the AZ. We obtained the equation of maximal radius of the AZ as a function of the magnitude of the main event and estimated its values for each region.

  17. Coherent Seismic Arrivals in the P Wave Coda of the 2012 Mw 7.2 Sumatra Earthquake: Water Reverberations or an Early Aftershock?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Wenyuan; Shearer, Peter M.

    2018-04-01

    Teleseismic records of the 2012 Mw 7.2 Sumatra earthquake contain prominent phases in the P wave train, arriving about 50 to 100 s after the direct P arrival. Azimuthal variations in these arrivals, together with back-projection analysis, led Fan and Shearer (https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067785) to conclude that they originated from early aftershock(s), located ˜150 km northeast of the mainshock and landward of the trench. However, recently, Yue et al. (https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073254) argued that the anomalous arrivals are more likely water reverberations from the mainshock, based mostly on empirical Green's function analysis of a M6 earthquake near the mainshock and a water phase synthetic test. Here we present detailed back-projection and waveform analyses of three M6 earthquakes within 100 km of the Mw 7.2 earthquake, including the empirical Green's function event analyzed in Yue et al. (https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073254). In addition, we examine the waveforms of three M5.5 reverse-faulting earthquakes close to the inferred early aftershock location in Fan and Shearer (https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067785). These results suggest that the reverberatory character of the anomalous arrivals in the mainshock coda is consistent with water reverberations, but the origin of this energy is more likely an early aftershock rather than delayed and displaced water reverberations from the mainshock.

  18. Unified Deep Learning Architecture for Modeling Biology Sequence.

    PubMed

    Wu, Hongjie; Cao, Chengyuan; Xia, Xiaoyan; Lu, Qiang

    2017-10-09

    Prediction of the spatial structure or function of biological macromolecules based on their sequence remains an important challenge in bioinformatics. When modeling biological sequences using traditional sequencing models, characteristics, such as long-range interactions between basic units, the complicated and variable output of labeled structures, and the variable length of biological sequences, usually lead to different solutions on a case-by-case basis. This study proposed the use of bidirectional recurrent neural networks based on long short-term memory or a gated recurrent unit to capture long-range interactions by designing the optional reshape operator to adapt to the diversity of the output labels and implementing a training algorithm to support the training of sequence models capable of processing variable-length sequences. Additionally, the merge and pooling operators enhanced the ability to capture short-range interactions between basic units of biological sequences. The proposed deep-learning model and its training algorithm might be capable of solving currently known biological sequence-modeling problems through the use of a unified framework. We validated our model on one of the most difficult biological sequence-modeling problems currently known, with our results indicating the ability of the model to obtain predictions of protein residue interactions that exceeded the accuracy of current popular approaches by 10% based on multiple benchmarks.

  19. Low stress drops observed for aftershocks of the 2011 Mw 5.7 Prague, Oklahoma, earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sumy, Danielle F.; Neighbors, Corrie J.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Keranen, Katie M.

    2017-05-01

    In November 2011, three Mw ≥ 4.8 earthquakes and thousands of aftershocks occurred along the structurally complex Wilzetta fault system near Prague, Oklahoma. Previous studies suggest that wastewater injection induced a Mw 4.8 foreshock, which subsequently triggered a Mw 5.7 mainshock. We examine source properties of aftershocks with a standard Brune-type spectral model and jointly solve for seismic moment (M0), corner frequency (f0), and kappa (κ) with an iterative Gauss-Newton global downhill optimization method. We examine 934 earthquakes with initial moment magnitudes (Mw) between 0.33 and 4.99 based on the pseudospectral acceleration and recover reasonable M0, f0, and κ for 87 earthquakes with Mw 1.83-3.51 determined by spectral fit. We use M0 and f0 to estimate the Brune-type stress drop, assuming a circular fault and shear-wave velocity at the hypocentral depth of the event. Our observations suggest that stress drops range between 0.005 and 4.8 MPa with a median of 0.2 MPa (0.03-26.4 MPa with a median of 1.1 MPa for Madariaga-type), which is significantly lower than typical eastern United States intraplate events (>10 MPa). We find that stress drops correlate weakly with hypocentral depth and magnitude. Additionally, we find the stress drops increase with time after the mainshock, although temporal variation in stress drop is difficult to separate from spatial heterogeneity and changing event locations. The overall low median stress drop suggests that the fault segments may have been primed to fail as a result of high pore fluid pressures, likely related to nearby wastewater injection.

  20. Rapid Seismic Deployment for Capturing Aftershocks of the September 2017 Tehuantepec, Mexico (M=8.1) and Morelos-Puebla (M=7.1), Mexico Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velasco, A. A.; Karplus, M. S.; Dena, O.; Gonzalez-Huizar, H.; Husker, A. L.; Perez-Campos, X.; Calo, M.; Valdes, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    The September 7 Tehuantepec, Mexico (M=8.1) and the September 19 Morelos-Puebla, Mexico (M=7.1) earthquakes ruptured with extensional faulting within the Cocos Plate at 70-km and 50-km depth, as it subducts beneath the continental North American Plate. Both earthquakes caused significant damage and loss of life. These events were followed by a M=6.1 extensional earthquake at only 10-km depth in Oaxaca on September 23, 2017. While the Morelos-Puebla earthquake was likely too far away to be statically triggered by the Tehuantepec earthquake, initial Coulomb stress analyses show that the M=6.1 event may have been an aftershock of the Tehuantepec earthquake. Many questions remain about these earthquakes, including: Did the Cocos Plate earthquakes load the upper plate, and could they possibly trigger an equal or larger earthquake on the plate interface? Are these the result of plate bending? Do the aftershocks migrate to the locked zone in the subduction zone? Why did the intermediate depth earthquakes create so much damage? Are these earthquakes linked by dynamic stresses? Is it possible that a potential slow-slip event triggered both events? To address some of these questions, we deployed 10 broadband seismometers near the epicenter of the Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquake and 51 UTEP-owned nodes (5-Hz, 3-component geophones) to record aftershocks and augment networks deployed by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). The 10 broadband instruments will be deployed for 6 months, while the nodes were deployed 25 days. The relative ease-of-deployment and larger numbers of the nodes allowed us to deploy them quickly in the area near the M=6.1 Oaxaca earthquake, just a few days after that earthquake struck. We deployed them near the heavily-damaged cities of Juchitan, Ixtaltepec, and Ixtepec as well as in Tehuantepec and Salina Cruz, Oaxaca in order to test their capabilities for site characterization and aftershock studies. This is the first test of these

  1. The Iquique 2014 sequence: understanding its nucleation and propagation from the seismicity evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuenzalida, A.; Rietbrock, A.; Woollam, J.; Tavera, H.; Ruiz, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Northern Chile and Southern Peru region is well known for its high seismic hazard due to the lack of recent major ruptures along long segments of the subduction interface. For this reason the 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake that occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap was expected and high quality seismic and geodetic networks were operating at the time of the event recording the precursory phase of a mega-thrust event with unprecedented detail. In this study we used seismic data collected during the 2014 Iquique sequence to generate a detailed earthquake catalogue. This catalogue consists of more than 15,000 events identified in Northern Chile during the period between 1/3/14 and 31/5/14 and provides full coverage of the immediate foreshock sequence, the main-shock and early after-shock series. The initial catalogue was obtained by automatic data processing and only selecting events with at least two associate S phases to improve the reliability of initial locations. Subsequently, this subset of events was automatically processed again using an optimized STA/LTA triggering algorithm for both P and S-waves and constraining the detection times by estimated arrival times at each station calculated for the preliminary locations. Finally, all events were relocated using a recently developed 1D velocity model and associated station corrections. For events Mw 4 or larger that occurred between the 15/3/14 and 10/04/14, we estimated it regional moment tensor by full-waveform inversion. Our results confirm the seismic activation of the upper plate during the foreshock sequence, as well highlight a crustal activity on the fore-arc during the aftershock series. The seismicity distribution was compared to the previous inter-seismic coupling studies obtained in the region, in which we observe interplay between high and low coupling areas, which are correlated to the seismicity rate. The spatial distribution of the seismicity and the complexities on the mechanisms observed

  2. Statistical analysis of the induced Basel 2006 earthquake sequence: introducing a probability-based monitoring approach for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, C. E.; Wiemer, S.; Woessner, J.; Hainzl, S.

    2011-08-01

    reduced and then stopped after another ML 2.5 event. A few hours later, an earthquake with ML 3.4, felt within the city, occurred, which led to bleed-off of the well. A risk study was later issued with the outcome that the experiment could not be resumed. We analyse the statistical features of the sequence and show that the sequence is well modelled with the Omori-Utsu law following the termination of water injection. Based on this model, the sequence will last 31+29/-14 years to reach the background level. We introduce statistical models based on Reasenberg and Jones and Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models, commonly used to model aftershock sequences. We compare and test different model setups to simulate the sequences, varying the number of fixed and free parameters. For one class of the ETAS models, we account for the flow rate at the injection borehole. We test the models against the observed data with standard likelihood tests and find the ETAS model accounting for the on flow rate to perform best. Such a model may in future serve as a valuable tool for designing probabilistic alarm systems for EGS experiments.

  3. Magnitude Scaling of the early displacement for the 2007, Mw 7.8 Tocopilla sequence (Chile)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lancieri, M.; Fuenzalida, A.; Ruiz, S.; Madariaga, R. I.

    2009-12-01

    We investigate the empirical relationships between the initial portion of P and S-phase and the final event magnitude, on the Tocopilla (Chile) event and its aftershocks. Such correlations, on which real-time magnitude estimation for seismic early warning is founded, have been widely studied on several data sets, merging earthquakes generated in different tectonic settings and recorded with very different networks. The Tocopilla (Mw 7.8) earthquake, occurred along the northern Chile seismic gap on 14 November 2007, provides, together with its aftershocks, a unique opportunity of studying a homogeneous data set in terms of tectonic environment, focal mechanism, and recording network. The preliminary analysis required to build the seismic catalogue includes the automatic identification of more than 570 aftershocks using an automatic phase detector and picker algorithm, and the subsequent location of the events through a non-linear and probabilistic code. The seismic moment (M0) has been calculated by spectral modeling of P and S waves, assuming a Brune omega-square model. This analysis also yields values for the corner frequency and quality factor. The estimated range of moment magnitude for the aftershocks sequence is [2.8 - 6.8]. The correlation between the low pass filtered peak displacement (PD) and the final magnitude has been investigated for 90 events with magnitude greater than 4. These include the main event, its larger aftershock (Mw 6.8 occurred twenty-four hours after the main shock), and seven events with magnitude greater than 5.7. The recovered relationships confirm the observations of Zollo et al. [2006, 2007] of a clear correlation between distance corrected PD and final magnitude in the magnitude range [4.0 - 7.4], when considering time windows of 4 sec of P- or 2 sec of S- wave. In contrast with the previous studies, when examining time windows of 2 sec of P-wave, we surprisingly do not observe any saturation effect for magnitudes greater than 6

  4. Kinematic Rupture Process of the 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) Earthquake Sequence from Joint Inversion of Teleseismic, hr-GPS, Strong-Ground Motion, InSAR interferograms and pixel offsets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yue, H.; Simons, M.; Jiang, J.; Fielding, E. J.; Owen, S. E.; Moore, A. W.; Riel, B. V.; Polet, J.; Duputel, Z.; Samsonov, S. V.; Avouac, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    The April 2015 Gorkha, Nepal (Mw 7.8) earthquake ruptured the front of Himalaya thrust belt, causing more than 9,000 fatalities. 17 days after the main event, a large aftershock (Mw 7.2) ruptured to down-dip and east of the main rupture area. To investigate the kinematic rupture process of this earthquake sequence, we explored linear and non-linear inversion techniques using a variety of datasets including teleseismic, high rate and conventional GPS, InSAR interferograms and pixel-offsets. InSAR interferograms from ALOS-2, RADARSAT-2 and Sentinel-1a satellites are used in the joint inversion. The main event is characterized by unilateral rupture extending along strike approximately 70 km to the southeast and 40 km along dip direction. The rupture velocity is well resolved to be lie between 2.8 and 3.0 km/s, which is consistent with back-projection results. An emergent initial phase is observed in teleseismic body wave records, which is consistent with a narrow area of rupture initiation near the hypocenter. The rupture mode of the main event is pulse like. The aftershock ruptured down-dip to the northeast of the main event rupture area. The aftershock rupture area is compact and contained within 40 km of its hypocenter. In contrast to the main event, teleseismic body wave records of the aftershock suggest an abrupt initial phase, which is consistent with a crack like rupture mode. The locations of most of the aftershocks (small and large) surround the rupture area of the main shock with little, if any, spatial overlap.

  5. Using regional moment tensors to constrain the kinematics and stress evolution of the 2010–2013 Canterbury earthquake sequence, South Island, New Zealand

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Herman, Matthew W.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Benz, Harley M.; Furlong, Kevin P.

    2014-01-01

    On September 3, 2010, a MW 7.0 (U.S. Geological Survey moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured across the Canterbury Plains in South Island, New Zealand. Since then, New Zealand GNS Science has recorded over 10,000 aftershocks ML 2.0 and larger, including three destructive ~ MW 6.0 earthquakes near Christchurch. We treat the Canterbury earthquake sequence as an intraplate earthquake sequence, and compare its kinematics to an Andersonian model for fault slip in a uniform stress field. We determined moment magnitudes and double couple solutions for 150 earthquakes having MW 3.7 and larger through the use of a waveform inversion technique using data from broadband seismic stations on South Island, New Zealand. The majority (126) of these double couple solutions have strike-slip focal mechanisms, with right-lateral slip on ENE fault planes or equivalently left-lateral slip on SSE fault planes. The remaining focal mechanisms indicate reverse faulting, except for two normal faulting events. The strike-slip segments have compatible orientations for slip in a stress field with a horizontal σ1 oriented ~ N115°E, and horizontal σ3. The preference for right lateral strike-slip earthquakes suggests that these structures are inherited from previous stages of deformation. Reverse slip is interpreted to have occurred on previously existing structures in regions with an absence of existing structures optimally oriented for strike-slip deformation. Despite the variations in slip direction and faulting style, most aftershocks had nearly the same P-axis orientation, consistent with the regional σ1. There is no evidence for significant changes in these stress orientations throughout the Canterbury earthquake sequence.

  6. Integrated geophysical characteristics of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Herman, Matthew W.; Nealy, Jennifer; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William; Hayes, Gavin; Furlong, Kevin P.; Benz, Harley M.

    2017-01-01

    On 16 September 2015, a Mw 8.3 earthquake ruptured the subduction zone offshore of Illapel, Chile, generating an aftershock sequence with 14 Mw 6.0–7.0 events. A double source W phase moment tensor inversion consists of a Mw 7.2 subevent and the main Mw 8.2 phase. We determine two slip models for the mainshock, one using teleseismic broadband waveforms and the other using static GPS and InSAR surface displacements, which indicate high slip north of the epicenter and west-northwest of the epicenter near the oceanic trench. These models and slip distributions published in other studies suggest spatial slip uncertainties of ~25 km and have peak slip values that vary by a factor of 2. We relocate aftershock hypocenters using a Bayesian multiple-event relocation algorithm, revealing a cluster of aftershocks under the Chilean coast associated with deep (20–45 km depth) mainshock slip. Less vigorous aftershock activity also occurred near the trench and along strike of the main aftershock region. Most aftershocks are thrust-faulting events, except for normal-faulting events near the trench. Coulomb failure stress change amplitudes and signs are uncertain for aftershocks collocated with deeper mainshock slip; other aftershocks are more clearly associated with loading from the mainshock. These observations reveal a frictionally heterogeneous interface that ruptured in patches at seismogenic depths (associated with many aftershocks) and with homogeneous slip (and few aftershocks) up to the trench. This event likely triggered seismicity separate from the main slip region, including along-strike events on the megathrust and intraplate extensional events.

  7. Continuous forearc extension following the 2010 Maule megathrust earthquake: InSAR and seismic observations and modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bie, L.; Rietbrock, A.; Agurto-Detzel, H.

    2017-12-01

    The forearc region in subduction zones deforms in response to relative movement on the plate interface throughout the earthquake cycle. Megathrust earthquakes may alter the stress field in the forearc areas from compression to extension, resulting in normal faulting earthquakes. Recent cases include the 2011 Iwaki sequence following the Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, and 2010 Pichilemu sequence after the Maule earthquake in central Chile. Given the closeness of these normal fault events to residential areas, and their shallow depth, they may pose equivalent, if not higher, seismic risk in comparison to earthquakes on the megathrust. Here, we focus on the 2010 Pichilemu sequence following the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in central Chile, where the Nazca Plate subducts beneath the South American Plate. Previous studies have clearly delineated the Pichilemu normal fault structure. However, it is not clear whether the Pichilemu events fully released the extensional stress exerted by the Maule mainshock, or the forearc area is still controlled by extensional stress. A 3 months displacement time-series, constructed by radar satellite images, clearly shows continuous aseismic deformation along the Pichilemu fault. Kinematic inversion reveals peak afterslip of 25 cm at shallow depth, equivalent to a Mw 5.4 earthquake. We identified a Mw 5.3 earthquake 2 months after the Pichilemu sequence from both geodetic and seismic observations. Nonlinear inversion from geodetic data suggests that this event ruptured a normal fault conjugate to the Pichilemu fault, at a depth of 4.5 km, consistent with the result obtained from independent moment tensor inversion. We relocated aftershocks in the Pichilemu area using relative arrivals time and a 3D velocity model. The spatial correlation between geodetic deformation and aftershocks reveals three additional areas which may have experienced aseismic slip at depth. Both geodetic displacement and aftershock distribution show a conjugated L

  8. Comparison of main-shock and aftershock fragility curves developed for New Zealand and US buildings

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uma, S.R.; Ryu, H.; Luco, N.; Liel, A.B.; Raghunandan, M.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk assessment involves the development of fragility functions to express the relationship between ground motion intensity and damage potential. In evaluating the risk associated with the building inventory in a region, it is essential to capture 'actual' characteristics of the buildings and group them so that 'generic building types' can be generated for further analysis of their damage potential. Variations in building characteristics across regions/countries largely influence the resulting fragility functions, such that building models are unsuitable to be adopted for risk assessment in any other region where a different set of building is present. In this paper, for a given building type (represented in terms of height and structural system), typical New Zealand and US building models are considered to illustrate the differences in structural model parameters and their effects on resulting fragility functions for a set of main-shocks and aftershocks. From this study, the general conclusion is that the methodology and assumptions used to derive basic capacity curve parameters have a considerable influence on fragility curves.

  9. The 7.9 Denali Fault, Alaska Earthquake of November 3, 2002: Aftershock Locations, Moment Tensors and Focal Mechanisms from the Regional Seismic Network Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratchkovski, N. A.; Hansen, R. A.; Kore, K. R.

    2003-04-01

    The largest earthquake ever recorded on the Denali fault system (magnitude 7.9) struck central Alaska on November 3, 2002. It was preceded by a magnitude 6.7 earthquake on October 23. This earlier earthquake and its zone of aftershocks were located ~20 km to the west of the 7.9 quake. Aftershock locations and surface slip observations from the 7.9 quake indicate that the rupture was predominately unilateral in the eastward direction. The geologists mapped a ~300-km-long rupture and measured maximum offsets of 8.8 meters. The 7.9 event ruptured three different faults. The rupture began on the northeast trending Susitna Glacier Thrust fault, a splay fault south of the Denali fault. Then the rupture transferred to the Denali fault and propagated eastward for 220 km. At about 143W the rupture moved onto the adjacent southeast-trending Totschunda fault and propagated for another 55 km. The cumulative length of the 6.7 and 7.9 aftershock zones along the Denali and Totschunda faults is about 380 km. The earthquakes were recorded and processed by the Alaska Earthquake Information Center (AEIC). The AEIC acquires and processes data from the Alaska Seismic Network, consisting of over 350 seismograph stations. Nearly 40 of these sites are equipped with the broad-band sensors, some of which also have strong motion sensors. The rest of the stations are either 1 or 3-component short-period instruments. The data from these stations are collected, processed and archived at the AEIC. The AEIC staff installed a temporary seismic network of 6 instruments following the 6.7 earthquake and an additional 20 stations following the 7.9 earthquake. Prior to the 7.9 Denali Fault event, the AEIC was locating 35 to 50 events per day. After the event, the processing load increased to over 300 events per day during the first week following the event. In this presentation, we will present and interpret the aftershock location patterns, first motion focal mechanism solutions, and regional seismic

  10. Aftershock distribution and heterogeneous structure in and around the source area of the 2014 northern Nagano Prefecture earthquake (Mw 6.2) , central Japan, revealed by dense seismic array observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurashimo, E.; Hirata, N.; Iwasaki, T.; Sakai, S.; Obara, K.; Ishiyama, T.; Sato, H.

    2015-12-01

    A shallow earthquake (Mw 6.2) occurred on November 22 in the northern Nagano Prefecture, central Japan. Aftershock area is located near the Kamishiro fault, which is a part of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line (ISTL). ISTL is one of the major tectonic boundaries in Japan. Precise aftershock distribution and heterogeneous structure in and around the source region of this earthquake is important to constrain the process of earthquake occurrence. We conducted a high-density seismic array observation in and around source area to investigate aftershock distribution and crustal structure. One hundred sixty-three seismic stations, approximately 1 km apart, were deployed during the period from December 3, 2014 to December 21, 2014. Each seismograph consisted of a 4.5 Hz 3-component seismometer and a digital data recorder (GSX-3). Furthermore, the seismic data at 40 permanent stations were incorporated in our analysis. During the seismic array observation, the Japan Meteorological Agency located 977 earthquakes in a latitude range of 35.5°-37.1°N and a longitude range of 136.7°-139.0°E, from which we selected 500 local events distributed uniformly in the study area. To investigate the aftershock distribution and the crustal structure, the double-difference tomography method [Zhang and Thurber, 2003] was applied to the P- and S-wave arrival time data obtained from 500 local earthquakes. The relocated aftershock distribution shows a concentration on a plane dipping eastward in the vicinity of the mainshock hypocenter. The large slip region (asperity) estimated from InSAR analysis [GSI, 2014] corresponds to the low-activity region of the aftershocks. The depth section of Vp structure shows that the high Vp zone corresponds to the large slip region. These results suggest that structural heterogeneities in and around the fault plane may have controlled the rupture process of the 2014 northern Nagano Prefecture earthquake.

  11. Aftershocks, earthquake effects, and the location of the large 14 December 1872 earthquake near Entiat, central Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brocher, Thomas M.; Hopper, Margaret G.; Algermissen, S.T. Ted; Perkins, David M.; Brockman, Stanley R.; Arnold, Edouard P.

    2017-01-01

    Reported aftershock durations, earthquake effects, and other observations from the large 14 December 1872 earthquake in central Washington are consistent with an epicenter near Entiat, Washington. Aftershocks were reported for more than 3 months only near Entiat. Modal intensity data described in this article are consistent with an Entiat area epicenter, where the largest modified Mercalli intensities, VIII, were assigned between Lake Chelan and Wenatchee. Although ground failures and water effects were widespread, there is a concentration of these features along the Columbia River and its tributaries in the Entiat area. Assuming linear ray paths, misfits from 23 reports of the directions of horizontal shaking have a local minima at Entiat, assuming the reports are describing surface waves, but the region having comparable misfit is large. Broadband seismograms recorded for comparable ray paths provide insight into the reasons why possible S–P times estimated from felt reports at two locations are several seconds too small to be consistent with an Entiat area epicenter.

  12. Source characteristics of the 2015 MW 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake and its MW 7.2 aftershock from space geodesy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Wanpeng; Lindsey, Eric; Barbot, Sylvain; Samsonov, Sergey; Dai, Keren; Li, Peng; Li, Zhenhong; Almeida, Rafael; Chen, Jiajun; Xu, Xiaohua

    2017-08-01

    On April 25, 2015, a destructive MW 7.8 earthquake struck the capital of Nepal, Kathmandu, killing more than 8800 people and destroying numerous historical structures. We analyze six coseismic interferograms from several satellites (ALOS-2, Sentinel-1 A, and RADARSAT-2), as well as three-dimensional displacements at six GPS stations to investigate fault structure and slip distribution of the Gorkha earthquake. Using a layered crustal structure, the best-fit slip model shows that the preferred dip angle of the mainshock fault is 6 ± 3.5° and the major slip is concentrated within depths of 8-15 km. The maximum slip of 6.0 m occurs at a depth of 11 km, 70 km south east of the epicenter. The coseismic rupture extends 150 km eastward of the epicentre with a cumulative geodetic moment of 7.8 × 1020 Nm, equivalent to an earthquake of MW 7.84. We also investigate the MW 7.2 aftershock on 12 May 2015 using another three postseismic interferograms from ALOS2, RADARSAT-2, and Sentinel-1 A. The InSAR-based best-fit slip model of the largest aftershock implies that its major slip is next to the eastern lower end of the mainshock rupture with a similar maximum slip of 6 m at a depth of 13 km. This study generates various coseismic geodetic measurements to determine the source parameters of the MW 7.8 Gorkha earthquake and 12 May MW 7.2 afershock, providing an additional chance to understand the local fault structure and slip extent.

  13. Low stress drops observed for aftershocks of the 2011 Mw 5.7 Prague, Oklahoma, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sumy, Danielle F.; Neighbors, Corrie J.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Keranen, Katie M.

    2017-01-01

    In November 2011, three Mw ≥ 4.8 earthquakes and thousands of aftershocks occurred along the structurally complex Wilzetta fault system near Prague, Oklahoma. Previous studies suggest that wastewater injection induced a Mw 4.8 foreshock, which subsequently triggered a Mw 5.7 mainshock. We examine source properties of aftershocks with a standard Brune-type spectral model and jointly solve for seismic moment (M0), corner frequency (f0), and kappa (κ) with an iterative Gauss-Newton global downhill optimization method. We examine 934 earthquakes with initial moment magnitudes (Mw) between 0.33 and 4.99 based on the pseudospectral acceleration and recover reasonable M0, f0, and κ for 87 earthquakes with Mw 1.83–3.51 determined by spectral fit. We use M0 and f0 to estimate the Brune-type stress drop, assuming a circular fault and shear-wave velocity at the hypocentral depth of the event. Our observations suggest that stress drops range between 0.005 and 4.8 MPa with a median of 0.2 MPa (0.03–26.4 MPa with a median of 1.1 MPa for Madariaga-type), which is significantly lower than typical eastern United States intraplate events (>10 MPa). We find that stress drops correlate weakly with hypocentral depth and magnitude. Additionally, we find the stress drops increase with time after the mainshock, although temporal variation in stress drop is difficult to separate from spatial heterogeneity and changing event locations. The overall low median stress drop suggests that the fault segments may have been primed to fail as a result of high pore fluid pressures, likely related to nearby wastewater injection.

  14. Using structures of the August 24, 2016 Amatrice earthquake affected area as seismoscopes for assessing ground motion characteristics and parameters of the main shock and its largest aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carydis, Panayotis; Lekkas, Efthymios; Mavroulis, Spyridon

    2017-04-01

    On August 24, 2016 an Mw 6.0 earthquake struck Central Apennines (Italy) resulting in 299 fatalities, 388 injuries and about 3000 homeless in Amatrice wider area. Normal faulting surface ruptures along the western slope of Mt Vettore along with provided focal mechanisms demonstrated a NW-SE striking and SE dipping causative normal fault. The dominant building types in the affected area are unreinforced masonry (URM) and reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. Based on our macroseismic survey in the affected area immediately after the earthquake, RC buildings suffered non-structural damage including horizontal cracking of infill and internal partition walls, detachment of infill walls from the surrounding RC frame and detachment of large plaster pieces from infill walls as well as structural damage comprising soft story failure, symmetrical buckling of rods, compression damage at midheight of columns and bursting of over-stressed columns resulting in partial or total collapse. Damage in RC buildings was due to poor quality of concrete, inadequacy of reinforcement, inappropriate foundation close to the edge of slopes leading to differential settlements, poor workmanship and the destructive effect of vertical ground motions. Damage in URM buildings ranged from cracks and detachment of large plaster pieces from load-bearing walls to destruction due to poor workmanship with randomly placed materials bound by low-strength mortars, the effect of the vertical ground motion, inadequate repair and/or strengthening after previous earthquakes as well as inadequate interventions, additions and extensions to older URM buildings. During field surveying, the authors had the opportunity to observe damage induced not only by the main shock but also by its largest aftershocks (Mw 4.5-5.3) during the first three days of the aftershock sequence (August 24-26). Bearing in mind that: (a) soil conditions in foundations of the affected villages were more or less similar, (b) building damage

  15. Analysis of Magnitude Correlations in a Self-Similar model of Seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zambrano, A.; Joern, D.

    2017-12-01

    A recent model of seismicity that incorporates a self-similar Omori-Utsu relation, which is used to describe the temporal evolution of earthquake triggering, has been shown to provide a more accurate description of seismicity in Southern California when compared to epidemic type aftershock sequence models. Forecasting of earthquakes is an active research area where one of the debated points is whether magnitude correlations of earthquakes exist within real world seismic data. Prior to this work, the analysis of magnitude correlations of the aforementioned self-similar model had not been addressed. Here we present statistical properties of the magnitude correlations for the self-similar model along with an analytical analysis of the branching ratio and criticality parameters.

  16. The Seismic Sequence of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales, Ecuador Sarthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leon, S.; Fuenzalida, A.; Bie, L.; Garth, T.; Gonzalez, P. J.; Holt, J.; Rietbrock, A.; Edwards, B.; Regnier, M. M.; Pernoud, M.; Mercerat, E. D.; Perrault, M.; Font, Y.; Alvarado, A. P.; Charvis, P.; Beck, S. L.; Meltzer, A.

    2016-12-01

    On the 16th April 2016, a Mw 7.8 mega-thrust earthquake occurred in Northern Ecuador, close to the city of Pedernales. The event ruptured an area of 120 x 60 km and was preceded by a Mw 5.0 foreshock, located only 15 km south of the epicentre, and registered 10 minutes before the main event.A few weeks after the main event a large array of instruments was deployed by a collaborative project between the Geophysical Institute of Ecuador (IGEPN), IRIS (USA), Géoazur (France) and the University of Liverpool (UK). This dense seismic network, with more than 70 stations, includes broadband, short period and strong motion instruments and is currently recording the aftershock activity of the earthquake. It is hoped that this data set will give further insights into the structure of the subduction zone mega thrust beneath Ecuador.Using data recorded both on the permanent and the recently deployed network we located and calculated the moment tensor solutions for the foreshock event, and the large aftershocks (M > 5). We analyse the spatial distribution of the seismicity and its relation with the co-seismic slip, estimated by inverting radar satellite interferometry data, and with previous models of inter-seismic coupling (e.g. Chlieh et al., 2014). It is possible to identify two lineations in the aftershock activity located to the north and south of the rupture. Moreover, the geodetic slip model shows that the boundaries of the maximum coseismic slip coincides with the observed lineaments in the aftershocks and with the rupture area of a previous Mw 7.8 event in 1942. This suggests that the features to the north and south may impose a barrier to rupture propagation, creating different segments in the subduction zone beneath Ecuador. In addition, we model the Coulomb stress change caused by the foreshock and mainshock in order to investigate whether this could explain the aftershock distribution and potential earthquake interactions. Previous activity has presented a

  17. The great 1933 Sanriku-oki earthquake: reappraisal of the main shock and its aftershocks and implications for its tsunami using regional tsunami and seismic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uchida, Naoki; Kirby, Stephen H.; Umino, Norihito; Hino, Ryota; Kazakami, Tomoe

    2016-09-01

    be explained from a single high-angle fault confined at a shallow depth (depth ≦50 km). The upward motion of the 1933 tsunami waveform records observed at Sanriku coast also cannot be explained from a single high-angle west-dipping normal fault. If we consider additional fault, involvement of high-angle, east-dipping normal faults can better explain the tsunami first motion and triggering of the aftershock in a wide area under the outer trench slope. Therefore multiple off-trench normal faults may have activated during the 1933 earthquake. We also relocated recent (2001-2012) seismicity by the same method. The results show that the present seismicity in the outer-trench-slope region can be divided into several groups along the trench. Comparison of the 1933 rupture dimensions based on our aftershock relocations with the morphologies of fault scarps in the outer trench slope suggest that the rupture was limited to the region where fault scarps are largely trench parallel and cross cut the seafloor spreading fabric. These findings imply that bending geometry and structural segmentation of the incoming plate largely controls the spatial extent of the 1933 seismogenic faulting. In this shallow rupture model for this largest outer trench earthquake, triggered seismicity in the forearc and structural control of faulting represent an important deformation styles for off-trench and shallow megathrust zones.

  18. Data sensitivity in a hybrid STEP/Coulomb model for aftershock forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steacy, S.; Jimenez Lloret, A.; Gerstenberger, M.

    2014-12-01

    Operational earthquake forecasting is rapidly becoming a 'hot topic' as civil protection authorities seek quantitative information on likely near future earthquake distributions during seismic crises. At present, most of the models in public domain are statistical and use information about past and present seismicity as well as b-value and Omori's law to forecast future rates. A limited number of researchers, however, are developing hybrid models which add spatial constraints from Coulomb stress modeling to existing statistical approaches. Steacy et al. (2013), for instance, recently tested a model that combines Coulomb stress patterns with the STEP (short-term earthquake probability) approach against seismicity observed during the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence. They found that the new model performed at least as well as, and often better than, STEP when tested against retrospective data but that STEP was generally better in pseudo-prospective tests that involved data actually available within the first 10 days of each event of interest. They suggested that the major reason for this discrepancy was uncertainty in the slip models and, in particular, in the geometries of the faults involved in each complex major event. Here we test this hypothesis by developing a number of retrospective forecasts for the Landers earthquake using hypothetical slip distributions developed by Steacy et al. (2004) to investigate the sensitivity of Coulomb stress models to fault geometry and earthquake slip, and we also examine how the choice of receiver plane geometry affects the results. We find that the results are strongly sensitive to the slip models and moderately sensitive to the choice of receiver orientation. We further find that comparison of the stress fields (resulting from the slip models) with the location of events in the learning period provides advance information on whether or not a particular hybrid model will perform better than STEP.

  19. Aftershock identification problem via the nearest-neighbor analysis for marked point processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gabrielov, A.; Zaliapin, I.; Wong, H.; Keilis-Borok, V.

    2007-12-01

    The centennial observations on the world seismicity have revealed a wide variety of clustering phenomena that unfold in the space-time-energy domain and provide most reliable information about the earthquake dynamics. However, there is neither a unifying theory nor a convenient statistical apparatus that would naturally account for the different types of seismic clustering. In this talk we present a theoretical framework for nearest-neighbor analysis of marked processes and obtain new results on hierarchical approach to studying seismic clustering introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). Recall that under this approach one defines an asymmetric distance D in space-time-energy domain such that the nearest-neighbor spanning graph with respect to D becomes a time- oriented tree. We demonstrate how this approach can be used to detect earthquake clustering. We apply our analysis to the observed seismicity of California and synthetic catalogs from ETAS model and show that the earthquake clustering part is statistically different from the homogeneous part. This finding may serve as a basis for an objective aftershock identification procedure.

  20. Geotechnical effects of the 2015 magnitude 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moss, Robb E. S.; Thompson, Eric M.; Kieffer, D Scott; Tiwari, Binod; Hashash, Youssef M A; Acharya, Indra; Adhikari, Basanta; Asimaki, Domniki; Clahan, Kevin B.; Collins, Brian D.; Dahal, Sachindra; Jibson, Randall W.; Khadka, Diwakar; Macdonald, Amy; Madugo, Chris L M; Mason, H Benjamin; Pehlivan, Menzer; Rayamajhi, Deepak; Uprety, Sital

    2015-01-01

    This article summarizes the geotechnical effects of the 25 April 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and aftershocks, as documented by a reconnaissance team that undertook a broad engineering and scientific assessment of the damage and collected perishable data for future analysis. Brief descriptions are provided of ground shaking, surface fault rupture, landsliding, soil failure, and infrastructure performance. The goal of this reconnaissance effort, led by Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance, is to learn from earthquakes and mitigate hazards in future earthquakes.

  1. Regional crustal structures along several paths in India and its surrounding regions using local P- and S-wave travel times and regional waveforms recorded from the March 28, 1999 Chamoli earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikia, C. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Kayal, J. R.; Bhattacharya, S. N.; Shukla, A. K.

    2001-12-01

    The March 28, 1999 Chamoli earthquake (Mw 6.8) in northwest India generated a large sequence of aftershocks (M_ w> 4.0) which were recorded by a temporary network ofshort-period stations deployed by various organizations, namely India Meteorological Department (IMD), Geological Survey of India (GSI), National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) and Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WIHG) in India. We inverted the local P- and S-wave arrival times from about 20 local stations jointly for all available aftershocks implementing a technique which optimizes both earthquake locations and crustal velocity model. Of these, seven events were recorded by more than 5 stations locating within 5o of the epicenters withazimuthal gap not greater than 90o. We used these events to compute the station correctionsfor local stations and applied these station corrections to relocate the entire sequence of the Chamoli aftershocks. The relocation vectors which indicate the direction toward which the events would move from the reference locations (in this case the GSI locations) suggest that for the majority of the seismic events they show movement towards the epicentral locations of the mainshock. The new locations of these events also show improvements in the error ellipse measurements. We have also investigated variations in crustal models using regional broadband seismograms from the mainshock recorded by the IMD stations in India (IMD, 2000). Using a crustal model developed earlier by Bhattacharya using surface-wave dispersion for northern India as a starting model, we conducted a systematic analysis of surface-wave dispersion characteristics recorded at these broadband stations. We synthesized f-k seismograms andexamined the relative amplitude of the Pnl waves to the surface waves and their absolutetravel-time differences. We used focal mechanism and depth that were independently determined by modeling teleseismic depth phases, pP and sP, and by modeling regional seismograms

  2. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ford, S R; Walter, W R

    The behavior of aftershock sequences around the Nevada Test Site in the southern Great Basin is characterized as a potential discriminant between explosions and earthquakes. The aftershock model designed by Reasenberg and Jones (1989, 1994) allows for a probabilistic statement of earthquake-like aftershock behavior at any time after the mainshock. We use this model to define two types of aftershock discriminants. The first defines M{sub X}, or the minimum magnitude of an aftershock expected within a given duration after the mainshock with probability X. Of the 67 earthquakes with M > 4 in the study region, 63 of them producemore » an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} within the first seven days after a mainshock. This is contrasted with only six of 93 explosions with M > 4 that produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} for the same period. If the aftershock magnitude threshold is lowered and the M{sub 90} criteria is used, then no explosions produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 90} for durations that end more than 17 days after the mainshock. The other discriminant defines N{sub X}, or the minimum cumulative number of aftershocks expected for given time after the mainshock with probability X. Similar to the aftershock magnitude discriminant, five earthquakes do not produce more aftershocks than N{sub 99} within 7 days after the mainshock. However, within the same period all but one explosion produce less aftershocks then N{sub 99}. One explosion is added if the duration is shortened to two days after than mainshock. The cumulative number aftershock discriminant is more reliable, especially at short durations, but requires a low magnitude of completeness for the given earthquake catalog. These results at NTS are quite promising and should be evaluated at other nuclear test sites to understand the effects of differences in the geologic setting and nuclear testing practices on its performance.« less

  3. Using the USGS Seismic Risk Web Application to estimate aftershock damage

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Sean M.; Luco, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Engineering Risk Assessment Project has developed the Seismic Risk Web Application to combine earthquake hazard and structural fragility information in order to calculate the risk of earthquake damage to structures. Enabling users to incorporate their own hazard and fragility information into the calculations will make it possible to quantify (in near real-time) the risk of additional damage to structures caused by aftershocks following significant earthquakes. Results can quickly be shared with stakeholders to illustrate the impact of elevated ground motion hazard and earthquake-compromised structural integrity on the risk of damage during a short-term, post-earthquake time horizon.

  4. Estimating Rupture Directivity of Aftershocks of the 2014 Mw8.1 Iquique Earthquake, Northern Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folesky, Jonas; Kummerow, Jörn; Timann, Frederik; Shapiro, Serge

    2017-04-01

    The 2014 Mw8.1 Iquique earthquake was accompanied by numerous fore- and aftershocks of magnitudes up to M ˜ 7.6. While the rupture processes of the main event and its largest aftershock were already analysed in great detail, this study focusses on the rupture processes of about 230 smaller aftershocks that occurred during the first two days after the main event. Since the events are of magnitudes 4.0 ≤ M ≤ 6.5 it is not trivial which method is most suitable. Thus we apply and compare here three different approaches attempting to extract a possible rupture directivity for each single event. The seismic broadband recordings of the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC) provide an excellent database for our analysis. Their high sampling rate (100 Hz) and a well distributed station selection that cover an aperture of about 180 ° are a great advantage for a thorough directivity analysis. First, we apply a P wave polarization analysis (PPA) where we reconstruct the direction of the incoming wave-field by covariance analysis of the first particle motions. Combined with a sliding time window the results from different stations are capable of identifying first the hypocentre of the events and also a migration of the rupture front, if the event is of unilateral character. A second approach is the back projection imaging (BPI) technique, which illuminates the rupture path by back-projecting the recorded seismic energy to its source. A propagating rupture front would be reconstructed from the migration of the zone of high constructive amplitude stacks. In a third step we apply the empirical Green's function (EGF) method, where events of high waveform similarity, hence co-located and of similar mechanisms, are selected in order to use the smaller event as the Green's function of the larger event. This approach results in an estimated source time function, which is compared station wise and whose azimuthal variations are analysed for complexities and

  5. Earthquake Rate Models for Evolving Induced Seismicity Hazard in the Central and Eastern US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Michael, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Injection-induced earthquake rates can vary rapidly in space and time, which presents significant challenges to traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies that are based on a time-independent model of mainshock occurrence. To help society cope with rapidly evolving seismicity, the USGS is developing one-year hazard models for areas of induced seismicity in the central and eastern US to forecast the shaking due to all earthquakes, including aftershocks which are generally omitted from hazards assessments (Petersen et al., 2015). However, the spatial and temporal variability of the earthquake rates make them difficult to forecast even on time-scales as short as one year. An initial approach is to use the previous year's seismicity rate to forecast the next year's seismicity rate. However, in places such as northern Oklahoma the rates vary so rapidly over time that a simple linear extrapolation does not accurately forecast the future, even when the variability in the rates is modeled with simulations based on an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to account for earthquake clustering. Instead of relying on a fixed time period for rate estimation, we explore another way to determine when the earthquake rate should be updated. This approach could also objectively identify new areas where the induced seismicity hazard model should be applied. We will estimate the background seismicity rate by optimizing a single set of ETAS aftershock triggering parameters across the most active induced seismicity zones -- Oklahoma, Guy-Greenbrier, the Raton Basin, and the Azle-Dallas-Fort Worth area -- with individual background rate parameters in each zone. The full seismicity rate, with uncertainties, can then be estimated using ETAS simulations and changes in rate can be detected by applying change point analysis in ETAS transformed time with methods already developed for Poisson processes.

  6. The 2012 Strike-slip Earthquake Sequence in Black Sea and its Link to the Caucasus Collision Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tseng, T. L.; Hsu, C. H.; Legendre, C. P.; Jian, P. R.; Huang, B. S.; Karakhanian, A.; Chen, C. W.

    2016-12-01

    The Black Sea formed as a back-arc basin in Late Cretaceous to Paleogene with lots of extensional features. However, the Black Sea is now tectonically stable and absent of notable earthquakes except for the coastal region. In this study we invert regional waveforms of a new seismic array to constrain the focal mechanisms and depths of the 2012/12/23 earthquake sequence occurred in northeastern Black Sea basin that can provide unique estimates on the stress field in the region. The results show that the focal mechanisms for the main shock and 5 larger aftershocks are all strike-slip faulting and resembling with each other. The main rupture fall along the vertical dipping, NW-SE trending sinistral fault indicated by the lineation of most aftershocks. The fault strike and aftershock distribution are both consistent with the Shatsky Ridge, which is continental in nature but large normal faults was created by previous subsidence. The occurrence of 2012 earthquakes can be re-activated, as strike-slip, on one of the pre-existing normal fault cutting at depth nearly 20-30 km in the extended crust. Some of the aftershocks, including a larger one occurred 5 days later, are distributed toward NE direction 20 km away from main fault zone. Those events might be triggered by the main shock along a conjugate fault, which is surprisingly at the extension of proposed transform fault perpendicular to the rift axis of eastern Black Sea Basin. The focal mechanisms also indicate that the maximum compression in northeast Black Sea is at E-W direction, completely different from the N-S compression in the Caucasus and East Turkey controlled by Arabia-Eurasia collision. The origin of E-W maximum compression is probably the same as the secondary stress inferred from earthquakes in Racha region of the Greater Caucasus.

  7. Time Separation Between Events in a Sequence: a Regional Property?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muirwood, R.; Fitzenz, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquake sequences are loosely defined as events occurring too closely in time and space to appear unrelated. Depending on the declustering method, several, all, or no event(s) after the first large event might be recognized as independent mainshocks. It can therefore be argued that a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA, traditionally dealing with mainshocks only) might already include the ground shaking effects of such sequences. Alternatively all but the largest event could be classified as an ';aftershock' and removed from the earthquake catalog. While in PSHA the question is only whether to keep or remove the events from the catalog, for Risk Management purposes, the community response to the earthquakes, as well as insurance risk transfer mechanisms, can be profoundly affected by the actual timing of events in such a sequence. In particular the repetition of damaging earthquakes over a period of weeks to months can lead to businesses closing and families evacuating from the region (as happened in Christchurch, New Zealand in 2011). Buildings that are damaged in the first earthquake may go on to be damaged again, even while they are being repaired. Insurance also functions around a set of critical timeframes - including the definition of a single 'event loss' for reinsurance recoveries within the 192 hour ';hours clause', the 6-18 month pace at which insurance claims are settled, and the annual renewal of insurance and reinsurance contracts. We show how temporal aspects of earthquake sequences need to be taken into account within models for Risk Management, and what time separation between events are most sensitive, both in terms of the modeled disruptions to lifelines and business activity as well as in the losses to different parties (such as insureds, insurers and reinsurers). We also explore the time separation between all events and between loss causing events for a collection of sequences from across the world and we point to the need to

  8. Solving for source parameters using nested array data: A case study from the Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Neighbors, Corrie; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Ryan, Kenneth; Kaiser, Anna E.

    2017-01-01

    The seismic spectrum can be constructed by assuming a Brune spectral model and estimating the parameters of seismic moment (M0), corner frequency (fc), and high-frequency site attenuation (κ). Using seismic data collected during the 2010–2011 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence, we apply the non-linear least-squares Gauss–Newton method, a deterministic downhill optimization technique, to simultaneously determine the M0, fc, and κ for each event-station pair. We fit the Brune spectral acceleration model to Fourier-transformed S-wave records following application of path and site corrections to the data. For each event, we solve for a single M0 and fc, while any remaining residual kappa, κr">κrκr, is allowed to differ per station record to reflect varying high-frequency falloff due to path and site attenuation. We use a parametric forward modeling method, calculating initial M0 and fc values from the local GNS New Zealand catalog Mw, GNS magnitudes and measuring an initial κr">κrκr using an automated high-frequency linear regression method. Final solutions for M0, fc, and κr">κrκr are iteratively computed through minimization of the residual function, and the Brune model stress drop is then calculated from the final, best-fit fc. We perform the spectral fitting routine on nested array seismic data that include the permanent GeoNet accelerometer network as well as a dense network of nearly 200 Quake Catcher Network (QCN) MEMs accelerometers, analyzing over 180 aftershocks Mw,GNS ≥ 3.5 that occurred from 9 September 2010 to 31 July 2011. QCN stations were hosted by public volunteers and served to fill spatial gaps between existing GeoNet stations. Moment magnitudes determined using the spectral fitting procedure (Mw,SF) range from 3.5 to 5.7 and agree well with Mw,GNS, with a median difference of 0.09 and 0.17 for GeoNet and QCN records, respectively, and 0.11 when data from both networks are combined. The majority of events are calculated

  9. Co-seismic slip, post-seismic slip, and largest aftershock associated with the 1994 Sanriku-haruka-oki, Japan, earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagi, Yuji; Kikuchi, Masayuki; Nishimura, Takuya

    2003-11-01

    We analyzed continuous GPS data to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of co-seismic slip, post-seismic slip, and largest aftershock associated with the 1994 Sanriku-haruka-oki, Japan, earthquake (Mw = 7.7). To get better resolution for co-seismic and post-seismic slip distribution, we imposed a weak constraint as a priori information of the co-seismic slip determined by seismic wave analyses. We found that the post-seismic slip during 100 days following the main-shock amount to as much moment release as the main-shock, and that the sites of co-seismic slip and post-seismic slip are partitioning on a plate boundary region in complimentary fashion. The major post-seismic slip was triggered by the mainshock in western side of the co-seismic slip, and the extent of the post-seismic slip is almost unchanged with time. It rapidly developed a shear stress concentration ahead of the slip area, and triggered the largest aftershock.

  10. The Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System (SAMS) for OSI - Experiences from IFE14

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gestermann, Nicolai; Sick, Benjamin; Häge, Martin; Blake, Thomas; Labak, Peter; Joswig, Manfred

    2016-04-01

    An on-site inspection (OSI) is the third of four elements of the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). The sole purpose of an OSI is to confirm whether a nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion has been carried out in violation of the treaty and to gather any facts which might assist in identifying any possible violator. It thus constitutes the final verification measure under the CTBT if all other available measures are not able to confirm the nature of a suspicious event. The Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) carried out the Integrated Field Exercise 2014 (IFE14) in the Dead Sea Area of Jordan from 3 November to 9. December 2014. It was a fictitious OSI whose aim was to test the inspection capabilities in an integrated manner. The technologies allowed during an OSI are listed in the Treaty. The aim of the Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System (SAMS) is to detect and localize aftershocks of low magnitudes of the triggering event or collapses of underground cavities. The locations of these events are expected in the vicinity of a possible previous explosion and help to narrow down the search area within an inspection area (IA) of an OSI. The success of SAMS depends on the main elements, hardware, software, deployment strategy, the search logic and not least the effective use of personnel. All elements of SAMS were tested and improved during the Built-Up Exercises (BUE) which took place in Austria and Hungary. IFE14 provided more realistic climatic and hazardous terrain conditions with limited resources. Significant variations in topography of the IA of IFE14 in the mountainous Dead Sea Area of Jordan led to considerable challenges which were not expected from experiences encountered during BUE. The SAMS uses mini arrays with an aperture of about 100 meters and with a total of 4 elements. The station network deployed during IFE14 and results of the data analysis will be presented. Possible aftershocks of

  11. Seismic sequences in the Sombrero Seismic Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulliam, J.; Huerfano, V. A.; ten Brink, U.; von Hillebrandt, C.

    2007-05-01

    unrelated events in plots of the general catalog. One characteristic of these sequences is that their magnitudes tend to be consistently small (1.0 - 3.5 mb, with only five events greater than 3.5 mb) and they typically do not include an event that could confidently be identified as a "main" shock. Nevertheless, the numbers of events, temporal and geographic distribution of shocks in each sequence suggests that these are aftershock sequences, yet none includes an event that could confidently be identified as a "main" shock. This observation suggests several questions. Do these sequences truly represent aftershocks? If so, where are the main events? Are they perhaps related to "silent" or "slow" earthquakes in the subduction zone? If so, could such slow earthquakes be related to the dropping away of the subducting slab beneath the deep Puerto Rico Trench? Or do the sequences indicate tearing of the NA lithosphere of the North America plate as it subducts beneath the Caribbean plate?

  12. Fault source modeling of October 28, 2008 earthquake sequence in Baluchistan, Pakistan, on the basis of ALOS/PALSAR InSAR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Usman, M.; Furuya, M.

    2014-12-01

    The Quetta Syntaxis in the western Baluchistan, Pakistan, serves as a junction for different thrust faults. As this area also lays close to the left lateral strike slip Chaman fault, which is supposed to be marking the boundary between Indian and Eurasian plate, thus the resulting seismological behavior of this regime becomes much more complex. In the region of Quetta Syntaxis, below the fold and thrust belt of Suleiman and Kirthar ranges and on 28 October 2008, there stroke an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 (Mw) which was followed by a doublet on the very next day. In association with these major events, there have been four more shocks, one foreshock and three aftershocks that have moment magnitude greater than 5. On the basis of seismological, GPS and ENVISAT/ASAR InSAR data many researchers tried to explain the source of this sequence. The latest source modeling results, on the basis of ENVISAT/ASAR data has provided an insight about the complexity of tectonics in the study area. However, in comparison to ALOS/PALSAR InSAR data, ENVISAT/ASAR has lacked signals near the epicentral area because of the low coherence. Probably, it has led to different interpretations by different researchers even on the basis of same satellite data. By using ALOS/PALSAR data, we have suggested a four faults model, two left laterals and two right laterals, which also retains the most desirable features of previous models.

  13. The failure of earthquake failure models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.

    2001-01-01

    In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.

  14. 20 cool facts about the New Madrid Seismic Zone-Commemorating the bicentennial of the New Madrid earthquake sequence, December 1811-February 1812 [poster

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, R.A.; McCallister, N.S.; Dart, R.L.

    2011-01-01

    This poster summarizes a few of the more significant facts about the series of large earthquakes that struck the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky from December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes in this sequence had a magnitude (M) of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred on December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second on January 23, 1812, at 9 a.m.; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The mainshocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that occurred over the next decade. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2-3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. Geologic studies show that the 1811-1812 sequence was not an isolated event in the New Madrid region. The 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence was preceded by at least two other similar sequences in about A.D. 1450 and A.D. 900. Research also indicates that other large earthquakes have occurred in the region surrounding the main New Madrid seismicity trends in the past 5,000 years or so.

  15. Identifying the dynamic characteristics of a dual core-wall and frame building in Chile using aftershocks of the 27 February 2010 (Mw=8.8) Maule, Chile, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Çelebi, Mehmet; Sereci, Mark; Boroschek, Ruben; Carreño, Rodrigo; Bonelli, Patricio

    2013-01-01

    Following the 27 February 2010 (Mw = 8.8) Offshore Maule, Chile earthquake, a temporary, 16-channel, real-time data streaming array was installed in a recently constructed building in Viña del Mar to capture its responses to aftershocks. The cast-in-place, reinforced concrete building is 16 stories high, with 3 additional basement levels, and has dual system comprising multiple structural walls and perimeter frames. This building was not damaged during the main-shock, but other buildings of similar design in Viña del Mar and other parts of Chile were damaged, although none collapsed. Dynamic characteristics of the building identified from the low-amplitude (PGA of about 2 Gal) response recordings of aftershocks are found to compare well with those determined from modal analyses using a design level FEM model. Distinct “major-axes” translational and torsional fundamental frequencies, as well as frequencies of secondary modes, are identified. Evidence of beating is consistently observed in the response data for each earthquake. Results do not match well with U.S. code formulas.

  16. A sequence-dependent rigid-base model of DNA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez, O.; Petkevičiutė, D.; Maddocks, J. H.

    2013-02-01

    A novel hierarchy of coarse-grain, sequence-dependent, rigid-base models of B-form DNA in solution is introduced. The hierarchy depends on both the assumed range of energetic couplings, and the extent of sequence dependence of the model parameters. A significant feature of the models is that they exhibit the phenomenon of frustration: each base cannot simultaneously minimize the energy of all of its interactions. As a consequence, an arbitrary DNA oligomer has an intrinsic or pre-existing stress, with the level of this frustration dependent on the particular sequence of the oligomer. Attention is focussed on the particular model in the hierarchy that has nearest-neighbor interactions and dimer sequence dependence of the model parameters. For a Gaussian version of this model, a complete coarse-grain parameter set is estimated. The parameterized model allows, for an oligomer of arbitrary length and sequence, a simple and explicit construction of an approximation to the configuration-space equilibrium probability density function for the oligomer in solution. The training set leading to the coarse-grain parameter set is itself extracted from a recent and extensive database of a large number of independent, atomic-resolution molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of short DNA oligomers immersed in explicit solvent. The Kullback-Leibler divergence between probability density functions is used to make several quantitative assessments of our nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model, which is compared against others in the hierarchy to assess various assumptions pertaining both to the locality of the energetic couplings and to the level of sequence dependence of its parameters. It is also compared directly against all-atom MD simulation to assess its predictive capabilities. The results show that the nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model can successfully resolve sequence effects both within and between oligomers. For example, due to the presence of frustration, the model can

  17. A sequence-dependent rigid-base model of DNA.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez, O; Petkevičiūtė, D; Maddocks, J H

    2013-02-07

    A novel hierarchy of coarse-grain, sequence-dependent, rigid-base models of B-form DNA in solution is introduced. The hierarchy depends on both the assumed range of energetic couplings, and the extent of sequence dependence of the model parameters. A significant feature of the models is that they exhibit the phenomenon of frustration: each base cannot simultaneously minimize the energy of all of its interactions. As a consequence, an arbitrary DNA oligomer has an intrinsic or pre-existing stress, with the level of this frustration dependent on the particular sequence of the oligomer. Attention is focussed on the particular model in the hierarchy that has nearest-neighbor interactions and dimer sequence dependence of the model parameters. For a Gaussian version of this model, a complete coarse-grain parameter set is estimated. The parameterized model allows, for an oligomer of arbitrary length and sequence, a simple and explicit construction of an approximation to the configuration-space equilibrium probability density function for the oligomer in solution. The training set leading to the coarse-grain parameter set is itself extracted from a recent and extensive database of a large number of independent, atomic-resolution molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of short DNA oligomers immersed in explicit solvent. The Kullback-Leibler divergence between probability density functions is used to make several quantitative assessments of our nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model, which is compared against others in the hierarchy to assess various assumptions pertaining both to the locality of the energetic couplings and to the level of sequence dependence of its parameters. It is also compared directly against all-atom MD simulation to assess its predictive capabilities. The results show that the nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model can successfully resolve sequence effects both within and between oligomers. For example, due to the presence of frustration, the model can

  18. Are triggering rates of labquakes universal? Inferring triggering rates from incomplete information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baró, Jordi; Davidsen, Jörn

    2017-12-01

    The acoustic emission activity associated with recent rock fracture experiments under different conditions has indicated that some features of event-event triggering are independent of the details of the experiment and the materials used and are often even indistinguishable from tectonic earthquakes. While the event-event triggering rates or aftershock rates behave pretty much identical for all rock fracture experiments at short times, this is not the case for later times. Here, we discuss how these differences can be a consequence of the aftershock identification method used and show that the true aftershock rates might have two distinct regimes. Specifically, tests on a modified Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model show that the model rates cannot be correctly inferred at late times based on temporal information only if the activity rates or the branching ratio are high. We also discuss both the effect of the two distinct regimes in the aftershock rates and the effect of the background rate on the inter-event time distribution. Our findings should be applicable for inferring event-event triggering rates for many other types of triggering and branching processes as well.

  19. Streaks of Aftershocks Following the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waldhauser, F.; Schaff, D. P.; Engdahl, E. R.; Diehl, T.

    2009-12-01

    Five years after the devastating 26 December, 2004 M 9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, regional and global seismic networks have recorded tens of thousands of aftershocks. We use bulletin data from the International Seismological Centre (ISC) and the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), and waveforms from IRIS, to relocate more than 20,000 hypocenters between 1964 and 2008 using teleseimic cross-correlation and double-difference methods. Relative location uncertainties of a few km or less allow for detailed analysis of the seismogenic faults activated as a result of the massive stress changes associated with the mega-thrust event. We focus our interest on an area of intense aftershock activity off-shore Banda Aceh in northern Sumatra, where the relocated epicenters reveal a pattern of northeast oriented streaks. The two most prominent streaks are ~70 km long with widths of only a few km. Some sections of the streaks are formed by what appear to be small, NNE striking sub-streaks. Hypocenter depths indicate that the events locate both on the plate interface and in the overriding Sunda plate, within a ~20 km wide band overlying the plate interface. Events on the plate interface indicate that the slab dip changes from ~20° to ~30° at around 50 km depth. Locations of the larger events in the overriding plate indicate an extension of the steeper dipping mega thrust fault to the surface, imaging what appears to be a major splay fault that reaches the surface somewhere near the western edge of the Aceh basin. Additional secondary splay faults, which branch off the plate interface at shallower depths, may explain the diffuse distribution of smaller events in the overriding plate, although their relative locations are less well constrained. Focal mechanisms support the relocation results. They show a narrowing range of fault dips with increasing distance from the trench. Specifically, they show reverse faulting on ~30° dipping faults above the shallow (20

  20. Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014M=6.0 West Napa earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, Thomas E.; Segou, Margaret; Sevilgen, Volkan; Milner, Kevin; Field, Edward; Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.

    2014-01-01

    We calculate stress changes resulting from the M= 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress-based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults.

  1. Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24 h postmain shock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parsons, Tom; Segou, Margaret; Sevilgen, Volkan; Milner, Kevin; Field, Edward; Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.

    2014-12-01

    We calculate stress changes resulting from the M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress-based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults.

  2. Comparisons of ground motions from five aftershocks of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake with empirical predictions largely based on data from California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wang, G.-Q.; Boore, D.M.; Igel, H.; Zhou, X.-Y.

    2004-01-01

    The observed ground motions from five large aftershocks of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake are compared with predictions from four equations based primarily on data from California. The four equations for active tectonic regions are those developed by Abrahamson and Silva (1997), Boore et al. (1997), Campbell (1997, 2001), and Sadigh et al. (1997). Comparisons are made for horizontal-component peak ground accelerations and 5%-damped pseudoacceleration response spectra at periods between 0.02 sec and 5 sec. The observed motions are in reasonable agreement with the predictions, particularly for distances from 10 to 30 km. This is in marked contrast to the motions from the Chi-Chi mainshock, which are much lower than the predicted motions for periods less than about 1 sec. The results indicate that the low motions in the mainshock are not due to unusual, localized absorption of seismic energy, because waves from the mainshock and the aftershocks generally traverse the same section of the crust and are recorded at the same stations. The aftershock motions at distances of 30-60 km are somewhat lower than the predictions (but not nearly by as small a factor as those for the mainshock), suggesting that the ground motion attenuates more rapidly in this region of Taiwan than it does in the areas we compare with it. We provide equations for the regional attenuation of response spectra, which show increasing decay of motion with distance for decreasing oscillator periods. This observational study also demonstrates that ground motions have large earthquake-location-dependent variability for a specific site. This variability reduces the accuracy with which an earthquake-specific prediction of site response can be predicted. Online Material: PGAs and PSAs from the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake and five aftershocks.

  3. Computer simulation of earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, S. C.

    1976-01-01

    Two computer simulation models of earthquakes were studied for the dependence of the pattern of events on the model assumptions and input parameters. Both models represent the seismically active region by mechanical blocks which are connected to one another and to a driving plate. The blocks slide on a friction surface. In the first model elastic forces were employed and time independent friction to simulate main shock events. The size, length, and time and place of event occurrence were influenced strongly by the magnitude and degree of homogeniety in the elastic and friction parameters of the fault region. Periodically reoccurring similar events were frequently observed in simulations with near homogeneous parameters along the fault, whereas, seismic gaps were a common feature of simulations employing large variations in the fault parameters. The second model incorporated viscoelastic forces and time-dependent friction to account for aftershock sequences. The periods between aftershock events increased with time and the aftershock region was confined to that which moved in the main event.

  4. The 11 April 2012 east Indian Ocean earthquake triggered large aftershocks worldwide

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pollitz, Fred F.; Stein, Ross S.; Sevilgen, Volkan; Burgmann, Roland

    2012-01-01

    Large earthquakes trigger very small earthquakes globally during passage of the seismic waves and during the following several hours to days1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, but so far remote aftershocks of moment magnitude M≥5.5 have not been identified11, with the lone exception of an M=6.9 quake remotely triggered by the surface waves from an M=6.6 quake 4,800 kilometres away12. The 2012 east Indian Ocean earthquake that had a moment magnitude of 8.6 is the largest strike-slip event ever recorded. Here we show that the rate of occurrence of remote M≥5.5 earthquakes (>1,500 kilometres from the epicentre) increased nearly fivefold for six days after the 2012 event, and extended in magnitude to M≥7. These global aftershocks were located along the four lobes of Love-wave radiation; all struck where the dynamic shear strain is calculated to exceed 10-7 for at least 100 seconds during dynamic-wave passage. The other M≥8.5 mainshocks during the past decade are thrusts; after these events, the global rate of occurrence of remote M≥5.5 events increased by about one-third the rate following the 2012 shock and lasted for only two days, a weaker but possibly real increase. We suggest that the unprecedented delayed triggering power of the 2012 earthquake may have arisen because of its strike-slip source geometry or because the event struck at a time of an unusually low global earthquake rate, perhaps increasing the number of nucleation sites that were very close to failure.

  5. Wastewater disposal and the earthquake sequences during 2016 near Fairview, Pawnee, and Cushing, Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGarr, Arthur F.; Barbour, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    Each of the three earthquake sequences in Oklahoma in 2016—Fairview, Pawnee, and Cushing—appears to have been induced by high-volume wastewater disposal within 10 km. The Fairview M5.1 main shock was part of a 2 year sequence of more than 150 events of M3, or greater; the main shock accounted for about half of the total moment. The foreshocks and aftershocks of the M5.8 Pawnee earthquake were too small and too few to contribute significantly to the cumulative moment; instead, nearly all of the moment induced by wastewater injection was focused on the main shock. The M5.0 Cushing event is part of a sequence that includes 48 earthquakes of M3, or greater, that are mostly foreshocks. The cumulative moment for each of the three sequences during 2016, as well as that for the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma, and nine other sequences representing a broad range of injected volume, are all limited by the total volumes of wastewater injected locally.

  6. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence.

    PubMed

    Kato, Aitaro; Nakamura, Kouji; Hiyama, Yohei

    2016-01-01

    Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An M j 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an M j 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest.

  7. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

    PubMed Central

    KATO, Aitaro; NAKAMURA, Kouji; HIYAMA, Yohei

    2016-01-01

    Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An Mj 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an Mj 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest. PMID:27725474

  8. Modeling earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas: possible signatures of induced seismicity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

    2013-01-01

    The rate of ML≥3 earthquakes in the central and eastern United States increased beginning in 2009, particularly in Oklahoma and central Arkansas, where fluid injection has occurred. We find evidence that suggests these rate increases are man‐made by examining the rate changes in a catalog of ML≥3 earthquakes in Oklahoma, which had a low background seismicity rate before 2009, as well as rate changes in a catalog of ML≥2.2 earthquakes in central Arkansas, which had a history of earthquake swarms prior to the start of injection in 2009. In both cases, stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models and statistical tests demonstrate that the earthquake rate change is statistically significant, and both the background rate of independent earthquakes and the aftershock productivity must increase in 2009 to explain the observed increase in seismicity. This suggests that a significant change in the underlying triggering process occurred. Both parameters vary, even when comparing natural to potentially induced swarms in Arkansas, which suggests that changes in both the background rate and the aftershock productivity may provide a way to distinguish man‐made from natural earthquake rate changes. In Arkansas we also compare earthquake and injection well locations, finding that earthquakes within 6 km of an active injection well tend to occur closer together than those that occur before, after, or far from active injection. Thus, like a change in productivity, a change in interevent distance distribution may also be an indicator of induced seismicity.

  9. Hidden Markov models of biological primary sequence information.

    PubMed Central

    Baldi, P; Chauvin, Y; Hunkapiller, T; McClure, M A

    1994-01-01

    Hidden Markov model (HMM) techniques are used to model families of biological sequences. A smooth and convergent algorithm is introduced to iteratively adapt the transition and emission parameters of the models from the examples in a given family. The HMM approach is applied to three protein families: globins, immunoglobulins, and kinases. In all cases, the models derived capture the important statistical characteristics of the family and can be used for a number of tasks, including multiple alignments, motif detection, and classification. For K sequences of average length N, this approach yields an effective multiple-alignment algorithm which requires O(KN2) operations, linear in the number of sequences. PMID:8302831

  10. Active Tectonics in the Central Chilean Andes: 3D Tomography Based on the Aftershock Sequence of the 28 August 2004 Shallow Crustal Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comte, D.; Farias, M.; Charrier, R.; Gonzalez, A.

    2008-12-01

    Most of the seismological research in the Andes has been mainly oriented to the detection and understanding of the seismicity associated with megathrust earthquakes that characterize the subduction environment that governs the Andean tectonics. However, deployments of temporary networks have allowed the detection of intense crustal seismicity beneath the Chilean forearc-arc region. The temporary seismic network deployed along the Las Leñas and Pangal river valleys (34°25'S), between January and May 2004 permitted to better constrain the abundant shallow intra-continental seismicity previously detected in that region. Although most of the seismicity is randomly distributed in the region, several microearthquakes occur along the trace of the major El Fierro fault-system. This system is well recognized between 33°30' and 35°15'S and is located at or close to the eastern contact between Mesozoic and Cenozoic deposits in the Principal Cordillera and, locally, below active volcanoes, being considered to have participated in the extension and tectonic inversion of a widely extended (>600 km long) Cenozoic basin along the Principal Cordillera. Further south, at 35°S, a Mw=6.5 strike-slip shallow earthquake occurred on August 28, 2004, near of the headwater of the Teno river, close to the Planchon volcano. A 3D detailed Vp and Vs velocities determination was obtained along the 2004 earthquake aftershock area. The aftershocks are distributed along one branch of the El Fierro fault system, with a NNE-SSW direction and depths lower than 15 km. The rupture zone coincides with a sharp contrast in Vp and Vs, also in coincidence with the presence of hydrothermal fluids, gypsum diapers and the volcanic arc, suggesting rheological contrast controlling deformation. At the surface, this zone present an intense contractive deformation produced during the Neogene, which differs from what can be observed in other regions. Present day deformation related to seismicity has no

  11. A simple model for strong ground motions and response spectra

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Safak, Erdal; Mueller, Charles; Boatwright, John

    1988-01-01

    A simple model for the description of strong ground motions is introduced. The model shows that response spectra can be estimated by using only four parameters of the ground motion, the RMS acceleration, effective duration and two corner frequencies that characterize the effective frequency band of the motion. The model is windowed band-limited white noise, and is developed by studying the properties of two functions, cumulative squared acceleration in the time domain, and cumulative squared amplitude spectrum in the frequency domain. Applying the methods of random vibration theory, the model leads to a simple analytical expression for the response spectra. The accuracy of the model is checked by using the ground motion recordings from the aftershock sequences of two different earthquakes and simulated accelerograms. The results show that the model gives a satisfactory estimate of the response spectra.

  12. An Examination of Upper Plate Aftershocks of the Tohoku-oki Earthquake: Are They Caused by a Long-term Change in the Dip of the Subducting Plate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oryan, B.; Buck, W. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Tohoku-oki earthquake was one of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded. 50-80 meters of lateral motion of the sloping seafloor resulted in a tsunami that exceeded predictions and caused one of the costliest natural disasters in history. It was also the first time extensional aftershocks were observed in the upper plate over a region as wide as 250km. Inspired by these findings, researchers found similar upper plate extensional earthquakes after reexamining seismic data from past earthquakes that had also produced large tsunamis. Such extensional aftershocks are difficult to explain in terms of standard subduction models. Most models assume that the dip of the subducting plate remains constant with time. However, geological evidence indicates that the dip angle of the subducting plate changes. We hypothesize that a reduction in the dip angle of the subducting plate can cause upper plate extensional earthquakes. This change in dip angle adds extensional bending stress to the upper plate. During an inter-seismic period, the interface is `locked' causing regional compression that prevents the release of extensional energy. Relief of compressional stresses during a megathrust event can trigger the release of the accumulated extensional energy, explaining why extensional earthquakes were observed after some megathrust events. Numerical models will be used to test our hypothesis. First, we will model long term subduction with a nearly constant dip angle. Then, we will impose a `mantle wind' to reduce the dip angle of the subducting plate. Eventually, we will model a full seismic cycle of the subduction resulting in a megathrust event. The generation of extensional earthquakes in the upper plate of our model following the megathrust event will allow us to determine whether a causal link exists between these earthquakes and a reduction in the dip angle of the subducting plate.

  13. Modeling of prepregs during automated draping sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krogh, Christian; Glud, Jens A.; Jakobsen, Johnny

    2017-10-01

    The behavior of wowen prepreg fabric during automated draping sequences is investigated. A drape tool under development with an arrangement of grippers facilitates the placement of a woven prepreg fabric in a mold. It is essential that the draped configuration is free from wrinkles and other defects. The present study aims at setting up a virtual draping framework capable of modeling the draping process from the initial flat fabric to the final double curved shape and aims at assisting the development of an automated drape tool. The virtual draping framework consists of a kinematic mapping algorithm used to generate target points on the mold which are used as input to a draping sequence planner. The draping sequence planner prescribes the displacement history for each gripper in the drape tool and these displacements are then applied to each gripper in a transient model of the draping sequence. The model is based on a transient finite element analysis with the material's constitutive behavior currently being approximated as linear elastic orthotropic. In-plane tensile and bias-extension tests as well as bending tests are conducted and used as input for the model. The virtual draping framework shows a good potential for obtaining a better understanding of the drape process and guide the development of the drape tool. However, results obtained from using the framework on a simple test case indicate that the generation of draping sequences is non-trivial.

  14. Moment tensor analysis of the 3 September 2017 DPRK announced nuclear explosion and collapse aftershock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ichinose, G. A.; Ford, S. R.; Chiang, A.; Walter, W. R.; Dreger, D. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted its sixth announced nuclear test on 3 September 2017, 03:30:00 with a magnitude of 6.1 (IDC mb). At 03:38:27, there was an aftershock of magnitude 4.1 (IDC mb). Moment tensor analysis using regional long-period surface waves was performed to identify the source type of these two events. The first event was an explosive isotropic source with total seismic moment magnitude of Mw 5.34 (Mo=1.16e+17 Nm) with strong 66% isotropic component (eigenvalues: 1.30e+17, 0.75e+17, 0.44e+17 Nm). The second event was a closing crack source with an Mw 4.64 (Mo=1.04e+17 Nm) also with a strong 68% isotropic component (eigenvalues: -4.82e+16, -5.33e+16, -10.93e+16 Nm). We used the same stations within 360-1140 km for inversion of both events (stations: IC.MDJ, IC.BJT, IC.HIA) and predict the long-period displacements at KG.TJN and IU.INCN. We used a 1-D velocity model appropriate for active tectonic regions and band pass the data between periods of 20 and 100 sec. Waveform time-shifts were incorporated from previous event-station pairs to account for velocity model inadequacies. Both DPRK events source-types plot within the population of other NNSS nuclear and western US collapse events (Ford et al., 2009) on the fundamental lune (Tape and Tape, 2012). The DPRK collapse event is similar to the hole collapse 0h21m26s after the 5 September 1982 Atrisco shot at NNSS (Springer et al., 2002; DOE NV-209). The DPRK collapse could be explained by a complete or partial apical cavity collapse. The estimated collapse volume is 122000-277000 m3 and crack radius is 30-40 m given the seismic moment, elastic moduli for granite and a closing crack model (Mueller, 2001). In comparison to Denny and Johnson (1994) cavity-yield scaling in granite, the cavity radius ranges from 40 to 60 m given an explosion yield range of 140-400 kT. This collapse event is noteworthy because large aftershocks are rare in nuclear testing and even more rare are

  15. Physics-based and statistical earthquake forecasting in a continental rift zone: the case study of Corinth Gulf (Greece)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segou, Margarita

    2016-01-01

    I perform a retrospective forecast experiment in the most rapid extensive continental rift worldwide, the western Corinth Gulf (wCG, Greece), aiming to predict shallow seismicity (depth <15 km) with magnitude M ≥ 3.0 for the time period between 1995 and 2013. I compare two short-term earthquake clustering models, based on epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) statistics, four physics-based (CRS) models, combining static stress change estimations and the rate-and-state laboratory law and one hybrid model. For the latter models, I incorporate the stress changes imparted from 31 earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 4.5 at the extended area of wCG. Special attention is given on the 3-D representation of active faults, acting as potential receiver planes for the estimation of static stress changes. I use reference seismicity between 1990 and 1995, corresponding to the learning phase of physics-based models, and I evaluate the forecasts for six months following the 1995 M = 6.4 Aigio earthquake using log-likelihood performance metrics. For the ETAS realizations, I use seismic events with magnitude M ≥ 2.5 within daily update intervals to enhance their predictive power. For assessing the role of background seismicity, I implement a stochastic reconstruction (aka declustering) aiming to answer whether M > 4.5 earthquakes correspond to spontaneous events and identify, if possible, different triggering characteristics between aftershock sequences and swarm-type seismicity periods. I find that: (1) ETAS models outperform CRS models in most time intervals achieving very low rejection ratio RN = 6 per cent, when I test their efficiency to forecast the total number of events inside the study area, (2) the best rejection ratio for CRS models reaches RN = 17 per cent, when I use varying target depths and receiver plane geometry, (3) 75 per cent of the 1995 Aigio aftershocks that occurred within the first month can be explained by static stress changes, (4) highly variable

  16. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  17. Combining stress transfer and source directivity: the case of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence

    PubMed Central

    Convertito, Vincenzo; Catalli, Flaminia; Emolo, Antonio

    2013-01-01

    The Emilia seismic sequence (Northern Italy) started on May 2012 and caused 17 casualties, severe damage to dwellings and forced the closure of several factories. The total number of events recorded in one month was about 2100, with local magnitude ranging between 1.0 and 5.9. We investigate potential mechanisms (static and dynamic triggering) that may describe the evolution of the sequence. We consider rupture directivity in the dynamic strain field and observe that, for each main earthquake, its aftershocks and the subsequent large event occurred in an area characterized by higher dynamic strains and corresponding to the dominant rupture direction. We find that static stress redistribution alone is not capable of explaining the locations of subsequent events. We conclude that dynamic triggering played a significant role in driving the sequence. This triggering was also associated with a variation in permeability and a pore pressure increase in an area characterized by a massive presence of fluids. PMID:24177982

  18. A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Edward; Porter, Keith; Milner, Kevn

    2017-01-01

    We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

  19. Continuing Megathrust Earthquake Potential in northern Chile after the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayes, G. P.; Herman, M. W.; Barnhart, W. D.; Furlong, K. P.; Riquelme, S.; Benz, H.; Bergman, E.; Barrientos, S. E.; Earle, P. S.; Samsonov, S. V.

    2014-12-01

    The seismic gap theory, which identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison to other portions of a fault, has successfully explained past earthquakes and is useful for qualitatively describing where future large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which until recently had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M~8.8 event in 1877. On April 1 2014, a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this northern Chile seismic gap, offshore of the city of Iquique; the size and spatial extent of the rupture indicate it was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Here, we present a rapid assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 seismic sequence offshore northern Chile, including analyses of earthquake (fore- and aftershock) relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations, and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer calculations over the duration of the sequence. This ensemble of information allows us to place the current sequence within the context of historic seismicity in the region, and to assess areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results indicate that while accumulated strain has been released for a portion of the northern Chile seismic gap, significant sections have not ruptured in almost 150 years. These observations suggest that large-to-great sized megathrust earthquakes will occur north and south of the 2014 Iquique sequence sooner than might be expected had the 2014 events ruptured the entire seismic gap.

  20. Pore Pressure Pulse Drove the 2012 Emilia (Italy) Series of Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pezzo, Giuseppe; De Gori, Pasquale; Lucente, Francesco Pio; Chiarabba, Claudio

    2018-01-01

    The 2012 Emilia earthquakes sequence is the first debated case in Italy of destructive event possibly induced by anthropic activity. During this sequence, two main earthquakes occurred separated by 9 days on contiguous thrust faults. Scientific commissions engaged by the Italian government reported complementary scenarios on the potential trigger mechanism ascribable to exploitation of a nearby oil field. In this study, we combine a refined geodetic source model constrained by precise aftershock locations and an improved tomographic model of the area to define the geometrical relation between the activated faults and investigate possible triggering mechanisms. An aftershock decay rate that deviates from the classical Omori-like pattern and Vp/Vs changes along the fault system suggests that natural pore pressure pulse drove the space-time evolution of seismicity and the activation of the second main shock.

  1. Conditional Probabilities of Large Earthquake Sequences in California from the Physics-based Rupture Simulator RSQSim

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Shaw, B. E.; Milner, K. R.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Within the SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM), we are developing physics-based forecasting models for earthquake ruptures in California. We employ the 3D boundary element code RSQSim (Rate-State Earthquake Simulator of Dieterich & Richards-Dinger, 2010) to generate synthetic catalogs with tens of millions of events that span up to a million years each. This code models rupture nucleation by rate- and state-dependent friction and Coulomb stress transfer in complex, fully interacting fault systems. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault and deformation models are used to specify the fault geometry and long-term slip rates. We have employed the Blue Waters supercomputer to generate long catalogs of simulated California seismicity from which we calculate the forecasting statistics for large events. We have performed probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with RSQSim catalogs that were calibrated with system-wide parameters and found a remarkably good agreement with UCERF3 (Milner et al., this meeting). We build on this analysis, comparing the conditional probabilities of sequences of large events from RSQSim and UCERF3. In making these comparisons, we consider the epistemic uncertainties associated with the RSQSim parameters (e.g., rate- and state-frictional parameters), as well as the effects of model-tuning (e.g., adjusting the RSQSim parameters to match UCERF3 recurrence rates). The comparisons illustrate how physics-based rupture simulators might assist forecasters in understanding the short-term hazards of large aftershocks and multi-event sequences associated with complex, multi-fault ruptures.

  2. Seismic constraints and coulomb stress changes of a blind thrust fault system, 1: Coalinga and Kettleman hills, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lin, Jian; Stein, Ross S.

    2006-01-01

    This report reviews the seismicity and surface ruptures associated with the 1982-1985 earthquake sequence in the Coalinga region in California, and the role of Coulomb stress in triggering the mainshock sequence and aftershocks. The 1982-1985 New Idria, Coalinga, and Kettleman Hills earthquakes struck on a series of west-dipping, en echelon blind thrust faults. Each earthquake was accompanied by uplift of a Quaternary anticline atop the fault, and each was accompanied by a vigorous aftershock sequence. Aftershocks were widely dispersed, and are seen above and below the thrust fault, as well as along the up-dip and down-dip projection of the main thrust fault. For the Coalinga and Kettleman Hills earthquakes, high-angle reverse faults in the core of the anticlines are evident in seismic reflection profiles, and many of these faults are associated with small aftershocks. The shallowest aftershocks extended to within 3-4 km of the ground surface. There is no compelling evidence for aftershocks associated with flexural slip faulting. No secondary surface rupture was found on any of the anticlines. In contrast, the 1983 Nu?ez rupture struck on a high-angle reverse fault 10 km west of the Coalinga epicenter, and over a 40-80-day period, up to 1 m of oblique surface slip occurred. The slip on this Holocene fault likely extended from the ground surface to a depth of 8-10 km. We argue that both the Nu?ez and Kettleman earthquakes were triggered by stresses imparted by the Coalinga mainshock, which was the largest of the four events in the sequence.

  3. Thermodynamics-based models of transcriptional regulation with gene sequence.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shuqiang; Shen, Yanyan; Hu, Jinxing

    2015-12-01

    Quantitative models of gene regulatory activity have the potential to improve our mechanistic understanding of transcriptional regulation. However, the few models available today have been based on simplistic assumptions about the sequences being modeled or heuristic approximations of the underlying regulatory mechanisms. In this work, we have developed a thermodynamics-based model to predict gene expression driven by any DNA sequence. The proposed model relies on a continuous time, differential equation description of transcriptional dynamics. The sequence features of the promoter are exploited to derive the binding affinity which is derived based on statistical molecular thermodynamics. Experimental results show that the proposed model can effectively identify the activity levels of transcription factors and the regulatory parameters. Comparing with the previous models, the proposed model can reveal more biological sense.

  4. Source parameters of the 1999 Osa peninsula (Costa Rica) earthquake sequence from spectral ratios analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verdecchia, A.; Harrington, R. M.; Kirkpatrick, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Many observations suggest that duration and size scale in a self-similar way for most earthquakes. Deviations from the expected scaling would suggest that some physical feature on the fault surface influences the speed of rupture differently at different length scales. Determining whether differences in scaling exist between small and large earthquakes is complicated by the fact that duration estimates of small earthquakes are often distorted by travel-path and site effects. However, when carefully estimated, scaling relationships between earthquakes may provide important clues about fault geometry and the spatial scales over which it affects fault rupture speed. The Mw 6.9, 20 August 1999, Quepos earthquake occurred on the plate boundary thrust fault along southern Costa Rica margin where the subducting seafloor is cut by numerous normal faults. The mainshock and aftershock sequence were recorded by land and (partially by) ocean bottom (OBS) seismic arrays deployed as part of the CRSEIZE experiment. Here we investigate the size-duration scaling of the mainshock and relocated aftershocks on the plate boundary to determine if a change in scaling exists that is consistent with a change in fault surface geometry at a specific length scale. We use waveforms from 5 short-period land stations and 12 broadband OBS stations to estimate corner frequencies (the inverse of duration) and seismic moment for several aftershocks on the plate interface. We first use spectral amplitudes of single events to estimate corner frequencies and seismic moments. We then adopt a spectral ratio method to correct for non-source-related effects and refine the corner frequency estimation. For the spectral ratio approach, we use pairs of earthquakes with similar waveforms (correlation coefficient > 0.7), with waveform similarity implying event co-location. Preliminary results from single spectra show similar corner frequency values among events of 0.5 ≤ M ≤ 3.6, suggesting a decrease in

  5. BIPAD: A web server for modeling bipartite sequence elements

    PubMed Central

    Bi, Chengpeng; Rogan, Peter K

    2006-01-01

    Background Many dimeric protein complexes bind cooperatively to families of bipartite nucleic acid sequence elements, which consist of pairs of conserved half-site sequences separated by intervening distances that vary among individual sites. Results We introduce the Bipad Server [1], a web interface to predict sequence elements embedded within unaligned sequences. Either a bipartite model, consisting of a pair of one-block position weight matrices (PWM's) with a gap distribution, or a single PWM matrix for contiguous single block motifs may be produced. The Bipad program performs multiple local alignment by entropy minimization and cyclic refinement using a stochastic greedy search strategy. The best models are refined by maximizing incremental information contents among a set of potential models with varying half site and gap lengths. Conclusion The web service generates information positional weight matrices, identifies binding site motifs, graphically represents the set of discovered elements as a sequence logo, and depicts the gap distribution as a histogram. Server performance was evaluated by generating a collection of bipartite models for distinct DNA binding proteins. PMID:16503993

  6. Coseismic fault slip associated with the 1992 M(sub w) 6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquake: Implications for the Joshua Tree-Landers earthquake sequence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bennett, Richard A.; Reilinger, Robert E.; Rodi, William; Li, Yingping; Toksoz, M. Nafi; Hudnut, Ken

    1995-01-01

    Coseismic surface deformation associated with the M(sub w) 6.1, April 23, 1992, Joshua Tree earthquake is well represented by estimates of geodetic monument displacements at 20 locations independently derived from Global Positioning System and trilateration measurements. The rms signal to noise ratio for these inferred displacements is 1.8 with near-fault displacement estimates exceeding 40 mm. In order to determine the long-wavelength distribution of slip over the plane of rupture, a Tikhonov regularization operator is applied to these estimates which minimizes stress variability subject to purely right-lateral slip and zero surface slip constraints. The resulting slip distribution yields a geodetic moment estimate of 1.7 x 10(exp 18) N m with corresponding maximum slip around 0.8 m and compares well with independent and complementary information including seismic moment and source time function estimates and main shock and aftershock locations. From empirical Green's functions analyses, a rupture duration of 5 s is obtained which implies a rupture radius of 6-8 km. Most of the inferred slip lies to the north of the hypocenter, consistent with northward rupture propagation. Stress drop estimates are in the range of 2-4 MPa. In addition, predicted Coulomb stress increases correlate remarkably well with the distribution of aftershock hypocenters; most of the aftershocks occur in areas for which the mainshock rupture produced stress increases larger than about 0.1 MPa. In contrast, predicted stress changes are near zero at the hypocenter of the M(sub w) 7.3, June 28, 1992, Landers earthquake which nucleated about 20 km beyond the northernmost edge of the Joshua Tree rupture. Based on aftershock migrations and the predicted static stress field, we speculate that redistribution of Joshua Tree-induced stress perturbations played a role in the spatio-temporal development of the earth sequence culminating in the Landers event.

  7. Model annotation for synthetic biology: automating model to nucleotide sequence conversion

    PubMed Central

    Misirli, Goksel; Hallinan, Jennifer S.; Yu, Tommy; Lawson, James R.; Wimalaratne, Sarala M.; Cooling, Michael T.; Wipat, Anil

    2011-01-01

    Motivation: The need for the automated computational design of genetic circuits is becoming increasingly apparent with the advent of ever more complex and ambitious synthetic biology projects. Currently, most circuits are designed through the assembly of models of individual parts such as promoters, ribosome binding sites and coding sequences. These low level models are combined to produce a dynamic model of a larger device that exhibits a desired behaviour. The larger model then acts as a blueprint for physical implementation at the DNA level. However, the conversion of models of complex genetic circuits into DNA sequences is a non-trivial undertaking due to the complexity of mapping the model parts to their physical manifestation. Automating this process is further hampered by the lack of computationally tractable information in most models. Results: We describe a method for automatically generating DNA sequences from dynamic models implemented in CellML and Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML). We also identify the metadata needed to annotate models to facilitate automated conversion, and propose and demonstrate a method for the markup of these models using RDF. Our algorithm has been implemented in a software tool called MoSeC. Availability: The software is available from the authors' web site http://research.ncl.ac.uk/synthetic_biology/downloads.html. Contact: anil.wipat@ncl.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:21296753

  8. Modeling genome coverage in single-cell sequencing

    PubMed Central

    Daley, Timothy; Smith, Andrew D.

    2014-01-01

    Motivation: Single-cell DNA sequencing is necessary for examining genetic variation at the cellular level, which remains hidden in bulk sequencing experiments. But because they begin with such small amounts of starting material, the amount of information that is obtained from single-cell sequencing experiment is highly sensitive to the choice of protocol employed and variability in library preparation. In particular, the fraction of the genome represented in single-cell sequencing libraries exhibits extreme variability due to quantitative biases in amplification and loss of genetic material. Results: We propose a method to predict the genome coverage of a deep sequencing experiment using information from an initial shallow sequencing experiment mapped to a reference genome. The observed coverage statistics are used in a non-parametric empirical Bayes Poisson model to estimate the gain in coverage from deeper sequencing. This approach allows researchers to know statistical features of deep sequencing experiments without actually sequencing deeply, providing a basis for optimizing and comparing single-cell sequencing protocols or screening libraries. Availability and implementation: The method is available as part of the preseq software package. Source code is available at http://smithlabresearch.org/preseq. Contact: andrewds@usc.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary material is available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:25107873

  9. Aftershock Distribution of the Mw=7.8 April 16, 2016 Pedernales Ecuador Subduction Earthquake: Constraints from 3D Earthquake Locations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Font, Y.; Agurto-Detzel, H.; Alvarado, A. P.; Regnier, M. M.; Rolandone, F.; Charvis, P.; Mothes, P. A.; Nocquet, J. M.; Jarrin, P.; Ambrois, D.; Maron, C.; Deschamps, A.; Cheze, J.; Peix, F., Sr.; Ruiz, M. C.; Gabriela, P.; Acero, W.; Singaucho, J. C.; Viracucha, C.; Vasconez, F.; De Barros, L.; Mercerat, D.; Courboulex, F.; Galve, A.; Godano, M.; Monfret, T.; Ramos, C.; Martin, X.; Rietbrock, A.; Beck, S. L.; Metlzer, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Mw7.8 Pedernales earthquake is associated with the subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South American Plate. The mainshock caused many casualties and widespread damage across the Manabi province. The 150 km-long coseismic rupture area extends beneath the coastline, near 25 km depth. The rupture propagated southward and involved the successive rupture of two discrete asperities, with a maximum slip ( 5 m) on the southern patch. The rupture area is consistent with the highly locked regions observed on interseismic coupling models, overlaps the 7.2 Mw rupture zone, and terminates near where the 1906 Mw 8.8 megathrust earthquake rupture zone is estimated to have ended. Two neighboring highly coupled patches remain locked: (A) south and updip of the coseismic rupture zone and (B) north and downdip. In this study, we are working on the earthquake locations of the first month of aftershocks and compare the seismicity distribution to the interseismic coupling, the rupture area and to early afterslip. We use continuous seismic traces recorded on the permanent network partly installed in the framework of the collaboration between l'Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (France) and the Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional (IGEPN), Quito, Ecuador. Detections are conducted using Seiscomp in play-back mode and arrival-times are manually picked. To improve earthquake locations, we use the MAXi technique and a heterogeneous a priori P-wave velocity model that approximates the large velocity variations of the Ecuadorian subduction system. Aftershocks align along 3 to 4 main clusters that strike perpendicularly to the trench, and mostly updip of the co-seismic rupture. Seismicity develops over portions of plate interface that are known to be strongly locked or almost uncoupled. The seismicity pattern is similar to the one observed during a decade of observation during the interseismic period with swarms such as the Galera alignment, Jama and Cabo

  10. The Evolution of the Seismic-Aseismic Transition During the Earthquake Cycle: Constraints from the Time-Dependent Depth Distribution of Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rolandone, F.; Bürgmann, R.; Nadeau, R.; Freed, A.

    2003-12-01

    We have demonstrated that in the aftermath of large earthquakes, the depth extent of aftershocks shows an immediate deepening from pre-earthquake levels, followed by a time-dependent postseismic shallowing. We use these seismic data to constrain the variation of the depth of the seismic-aseismic transition with time throughout the earthquake cycle. Most studies of the seismic-aseismic transition have focussed on the effect of temperature and/or lithology on the transition either from brittle faulting to viscous flow or from unstable to stable sliding. They have shown that the maximum depth of seismic activity is well correlated with the spatial variations of these two parameters. However, little has been done to examine how the maximum depth of seismogenic faulting varies locally, at the scale of a fault segment, during the course of the earthquake cycle. Geologic and laboratory observations indicate that the depth of the seismic-aseismic transition should vary with strain rate and thus change with time throughout the earthquake cycle. We quantify the time-dependent variations in the depth of seismicity on various strike-slip faults in California before and after large earthquakes. We specifically investigate (1) the deepening of the aftershocks relative to the background seismicity, (2) the time constant of the postseismic shallowing of the deepest earthquakes, and (3) the correlation of the time-dependent pattern with the coseismic slip distribution and the expected stress increase. Together with geodetic measurements, these seismological observations form the basis for developing more sophisticated models for the mechanical evolution of strike-slip shear zones during the earthquake cycle. We develop non-linear viscoelastic models, for which the brittle-ductile transition is not fixed, but varies with assumed temperature and calculated stress gradients. We use them to place constraints on strain rate at depth, on time-dependent rheology, and on the partitioning

  11. Growth of a Structure Connecting the 2010 M 7.2 El Mayor - Cucapah Rupture with the Elsinore Faul

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The M 7.2 El Mayor - Cucapah earthquake occurred on 4 April 2010 in the northern part of Baja, Mexico. The rupture extended about 120 km from near the northern tip of the Gulf of California to the US - Mexican border south of the Elsinore fault zone. Most of the aftershocks occurred within days of the main event. On 14 June 2010 a M 5.7 late aftershock occurred 8 km southeast of Ocotillo, CA and is the largest aftershock in the sequence. The right-lateral event occurred in a cluster of aftershocks and was followed by its own aftershock sequence. UAVSAR data were collected for a swath covering the aftershock on 13 April, 2010 just after the El Mayor - Cucapah earthquake and before the earthquake on 21 October 2009. The line was reflown 1 July 2010 after the M 5.7 14 June 2010 aftershock. Data have been continued to be collected semi yearly to yearly since then. Repeat Pass Interferomety (RPI) products spanning the aftershock show the growth of a lineament that with an azimuth of 121.5° or a strike of -58.5°. The interferograms suggest that a stepover develops following the earthquake. The epicenter of the M 5.7 aftershock is proximal to the linear discontinuity in the postseismic interferogram and the mechanism of the event is consistent with slip on this stepover. Inversions for slip on the northeast linear structure that steps west of the mainshock rupture yield a moment magnitude ranging from 5.5 - 5.8, which is consistent with the magnitude of the aftershock. Slip occurs at a depth of 2-10 km on a steeply dipping fault.

  12. Seismotectonics of the May 19, 2011 Simav- Kutahya Earthquake Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komec Mutlu, Ahu

    2014-05-01

    Aftershock sequence of May 19, 2011 Simav earthquake (Mw = 5.8) is relocated with a new 1-D seismic velocity model and focal mechanisms of largest aftershocks are determined. The May 19, 2011 Simav-Kutahya earthquake is occured in the most seismically active region of western Turkey. During six months after the mainshock, more than 5000 earthquakes are recorded and aftershocks followed over a period of almost two years. In this study, more than 7600 aftershocks occured between years 2011 and 2012 with magnitudes greater than 1.8 relocated. Waveform data is collected by 13 three component seismic stations from three different networks (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (NEMC-National Earthquake Monitoring Center), Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, Department of Earthquake and Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University Geophysics Department). These seismic stations are deployed closer than 80 km epicentral distance in the Simav-Kutahya. Average crustal velocity and average crustal thickness for the region are computed as 5.68 km/sn and 37.6 km, respectively. The source mechanism of fifty aftershocks with magnitudes greater than 4.0 are derived from first motion P phases. Analysis of focal mechanisms indicate mainly normal fault motions with oblique slip.

  13. Quantifying Aluminum Crystal Size Part 2: The Model-Development Sequence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hjalmarson, Margret; Diefes-Dux, Heidi A.; Bowman, Keith; Zawojewski, Judith S.

    2006-01-01

    We have designed model-development sequences using a common context to provide authentic problem-solving experiences for first-year students. The model-development sequence takes a model-eliciting activity a step further by engaging students in the exploration and adaptation of a mathematical model (e.g., procedure, algorithm, method) for solving…

  14. A scale-invariant cellular-automata model for distributed seismicity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barriere, Benoit; Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    In the standard cellular-automata model for a fault an element of stress is randomly added to a grid of boxes until a box has four elements, these are then redistributed to the adjacent boxes on the grid. The redistribution can result in one or more of these boxes having four or more elements in which case further redistributions are required. On the average added elements are lost from the edges of the grid. The model is modified so that the boxes have a scale-invariant distribution of sizes. The objective is to model a scale-invariant distribution of fault sizes. When a redistribution from a box occurs it is equivalent to a characteristic earthquake on the fault. A redistribution from a small box (a foreshock) can trigger an instability in a large box (the main shock). A redistribution from a large box always triggers many instabilities in the smaller boxes (aftershocks). The frequency-size statistics for both main shocks and aftershocks satisfy the Gutenberg-Richter relation with b = 0.835 for main shocks and b = 0.635 for aftershocks. Model foreshocks occur 28 percent of the time.

  15. Long-period Ground Motion Characteristics Inside and Outside of the Osaka Basin during the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake and Its Largest Aftershock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, K.; Iwata, T.; Asano, K.; Kubo, H.; Aoi, S.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 great Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) occurred on March 11, 2011, and the largest aftershock (Mw 7.7) at the region adjacent to south boundary of the mainshock's source region. Long-period ground motions (1-10s) of large amplitude were observed in the Osaka sedimentary basin about 550-800km away from the source regions during both events. We studied propagation and site characteristics of these ground motions, and found some common features between these two events in the Osaka basin. (1) The amplitude of horizontal components of the ground motion at the site-specific period is amplified at each sedimentary station. The predominant period is around 7s in the bayside area where the largest pSv were observed. (2) The velocity Fourier spectra have their peak values around 7s at the bedrock sites surrounding the Osaka basin. (3) Two remarkable wave packets separated by 30s propagating from stations around the Nobi plain to the bedrock sites near the Osaka basin were seen in the pasted-up velocity waveforms from the source regions to the Osaka basin for both events (Sato et al., 2012). Therefore, large long-period ground motions in the Osaka basin are generated by the combination of propagation-path and basin effects. Firstly, we simulate ground motions due to the largest aftershock using three-dimensional FDM (GMS; Aoi and Fujiwara, 1999). The reason we focus on the largest aftershock is that this event has a relatively small rupture area and simple rupture process compared to the mainshock. The source model is based on the model estimated by Kubo et al. (2013). The velocity structure model is a three-dimensional velocity structure based on the Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model (Koketsu et al., 2012) and the layer of Vs 350m/s in this model is replaced with one of Vs 500m/s. The minimum effective period in this computation is 3s. Then, we compare synthetic waveforms with observed ones. At CHBH14, the nearest station to the source and 60km away from the

  16. Open Source Tools for Seismicity Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powers, P.

    2010-12-01

    The spatio-temporal analysis of seismicity plays an important role in earthquake forecasting and is integral to research on earthquake interactions and triggering. For instance, the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), currently under development, will use Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) as a model for earthquake triggering. UCERF will be a "living" model and therefore requires robust, tested, and well-documented ETAS algorithms to ensure transparency and reproducibility. Likewise, as earthquake aftershock sequences unfold, real-time access to high quality hypocenter data makes it possible to monitor the temporal variability of statistical properties such as the parameters of the Omori Law and the Gutenberg Richter b-value. Such statistical properties are valuable as they provide a measure of how much a particular sequence deviates from expected behavior and can be used when assigning probabilities of aftershock occurrence. To address these demands and provide public access to standard methods employed in statistical seismology, we present well-documented, open-source JavaScript and Java software libraries for the on- and off-line analysis of seismicity. The Javascript classes facilitate web-based asynchronous access to earthquake catalog data and provide a framework for in-browser display, analysis, and manipulation of catalog statistics; implementations of this framework will be made available on the USGS Earthquake Hazards website. The Java classes, in addition to providing tools for seismicity analysis, provide tools for modeling seismicity and generating synthetic catalogs. These tools are extensible and will be released as part of the open-source OpenSHA Commons library.

  17. Aftershock source properties of events following the 2013 Craig Earthquake: new evidence for structural heterogeneity on the northern Queen Charlotte Fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roland, E. C.; Walton, M. A. L.; Ruppert, N. A.; Gulick, S. P. S.; Christeson, G. L.; Haeussler, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    In January 2013, a Mw 7.5 earthquake ruptured a segment of the Queen Charlotte Fault offshore the town of Craig in southeast Alaska. The region of the fault that slipped during the Craig earthquake is adjacent to and possibly overlapping with the northern extent of the 1949 M 8.1 Queen Charlotte earthquake rupture (Canada's largest recorded earthquake), and is just south of the rupture area of the 1972 M 7.6 earthquake near Sitka, Alaska. Here we present aftershock locations and focal mechanisms for events that occurred four months following the mainshock using data recorded on an Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) array that was deployed offshore of Prince of Wales Island. This array consisted of 9 short period instruments surrounding the fault segment, and recorded hundreds of aftershocks during the months of April and May, 2013. In addition to highlighting the primary mainshock rupture plane, aftershocks also appear to be occurring along secondary fault structures adjacent to the main fault trace, illuminating complicated structure, particularly toward the northern extent of the Craig rupture. Focal mechanisms for the larger events recorded during the OBS deployment show both near-vertical strike slip motion consistent with the mainshock mechanism, as well as events with varying strike and a component of normal faulting. Although fault structure along this northern segment of the QCF appears to be considerably simpler than to the south, where a higher degree of oblique convergence leads to sub-parallel compressional deformation structures, secondary faulting structures apparent in legacy seismic reflection data near the Craig rupture may be consistent with the observed seismicity patterns. In combination, these data may help to characterize structural heterogeneity along the northern segment of the Queen Charlotte Fault that contributes to rupture segmentation during large strike slip events.

  18. A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ward, Steven N.

    1991-01-01

    A novel iterative technique, based on the concept of fault segmentation and computed using 2D static dislocation theory, for building models of seismicity and fault interaction which are physically acceptable and geometrically and kinematically correct, is presented. The technique is applied in two steps to seismicity observed at the Middle America Trench. The first constructs generic models which randomly draw segment strengths and lengths from a 2D probability distribution. The second constructs predictive models in which segment lengths and strengths are adjusted to mimic the actual geography and timing of large historical earthquakes. Both types of models reproduce the statistics of seismicity over five units of magnitude and duplicate other aspects including foreshock and aftershock sequences, migration of foci, and the capacity to produce both characteristic and noncharacteristic earthquakes. Over a period of about 150 yr the complex interaction of fault segments and the nonlinear failure conditions conspire to transform an apparently deterministic model into a chaotic one.

  19. Probabilistic topic modeling for the analysis and classification of genomic sequences

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Studies on genomic sequences for classification and taxonomic identification have a leading role in the biomedical field and in the analysis of biodiversity. These studies are focusing on the so-called barcode genes, representing a well defined region of the whole genome. Recently, alignment-free techniques are gaining more importance because they are able to overcome the drawbacks of sequence alignment techniques. In this paper a new alignment-free method for DNA sequences clustering and classification is proposed. The method is based on k-mers representation and text mining techniques. Methods The presented method is based on Probabilistic Topic Modeling, a statistical technique originally proposed for text documents. Probabilistic topic models are able to find in a document corpus the topics (recurrent themes) characterizing classes of documents. This technique, applied on DNA sequences representing the documents, exploits the frequency of fixed-length k-mers and builds a generative model for a training group of sequences. This generative model, obtained through the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm, is then used to classify a large set of genomic sequences. Results and conclusions We performed classification of over 7000 16S DNA barcode sequences taken from Ribosomal Database Project (RDP) repository, training probabilistic topic models. The proposed method is compared to the RDP tool and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification algorithm in a extensive set of trials using both complete sequences and short sequence snippets (from 400 bp to 25 bp). Our method reaches very similar results to RDP classifier and SVM for complete sequences. The most interesting results are obtained when short sequence snippets are considered. In these conditions the proposed method outperforms RDP and SVM with ultra short sequences and it exhibits a smooth decrease of performance, at every taxonomic level, when the sequence length is decreased. PMID:25916734

  20. Directional topographic site response at Tarzana observed in aftershocks of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Implications for mainshock motions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spudich, P.; Hellweg, M.; Lee, W.H.K.

    1996-01-01

    The Northridge earthquake caused 1.78 g acceleration in the east-west direction at a site in Tarzana, California, located about 6 km south of the mainshock epicenter. The accelerograph was located atop a hill about 15-m high, 500-m long, and 130-m wide, striking about N78??E. During the aftershock sequence, a temporary array of 21 three-component geophones was deployed in six radial lines centered on the accelerograph, with an average sensor spacing of 35 m. Station COO was located about 2 m from the accelerograph. We inverted aftershock spectra to obtain average relative site response at each station as a function of direction of ground motion. We identified a 3.2-Hz resonance that is a transverse oscillation of the hill (a directional topographic effect). The top/base amplification ratio at 3.2 Hz is about 4.5 for horizontal ground motions oriented approximately perpendicular to the long axis of the hill and about 2 for motions parallel to the hill. This resonance is seen most strongly within 50 m of COO. Other resonant frequencies were also observed. A strong lateral variation in attenuation, probably associated with a fault, caused substantially lower motion at frequencies above 6 Hz at the east end of the hill. There may be some additional scattered waves associated with the fault zone and seen at both the base and top of the hill, causing particle motions (not spectral ratios) at the top of the hill to be rotated about 20?? away from the direction transverse to the hill. The resonant frequency, but not the amplitude, of our observed topographic resonance agrees well with theory, even for such a low hill. Comparisons of our observations with theoretical results indicate that the 3D shape of the hill and its internal structure are important factors affecting its response. The strong transverse resonance of the hill does not account for the large east-west mainshock motions. Assuming linear soil response, mainshock east-west motions at the Tarzana accelerograph

  1. The 2006-2007 Kuril Islands great earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lay, T.; Kanamori, H.; Ammon, C.J.; Hutko, Alexander R.; Furlong, K.; Rivera, L.

    2009-01-01

    The southwestern half of a ???500 km long seismic gap in the central Kuril Island arc subduction zone experienced two great earthquakes with extensive preshock and aftershock sequences in late 2006 to early 2007. The nature of seismic coupling in the gap had been uncertain due to the limited historical record of prior large events and the presence of distinctive upper plate, trench and outer rise structures relative to adjacent regions along the arc that have experienced repeated great interplate earthquakes in the last few centuries. The intraplate region seaward of the seismic gap had several shallow compressional events during the preceding decades (notably an MS 7.2 event on 16 March 1963), leading to speculation that the interplate fault was seismically coupled. This issue was partly resolved by failure of the shallow portion of the interplate megathrust in an MW = 8.3 thrust event on 15 November 2006. This event ruptured ???250 km along the seismic gap, just northeast of the great 1963 Kuril Island (Mw = 8.5) earthquake rupture zone. Within minutes of the thrust event, intense earthquake activity commenced beneath the outer wall of the trench seaward of the interplate rupture, with the larger events having normal-faulting mechanisms. An unusual double band of interplate and intraplate aftershocks developed. On 13 January 2007, an MW = 8.1 extensional earthquake ruptured within the Pacific plate beneath the seaward edge of the Kuril trench. This event is the third largest normal-faulting earthquake seaward of a subduction zone on record, and its rupture zone extended to at least 33 km depth and paralleled most of the length of the 2006 rupture. The 13 January 2007 event produced stronger shaking in Japan than the larger thrust event, as a consequence of higher short-period energy radiation from the source. The great event aftershock sequences were dominated by the expected faulting geometries; thrust faulting for the 2006 rupture zone, and normal faulting for

  2. Generation of animation sequences of three dimensional models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poi, Sharon (Inventor); Bell, Brad N. (Inventor)

    1990-01-01

    The invention is directed toward a method and apparatus for generating an animated sequence through the movement of three-dimensional graphical models. A plurality of pre-defined graphical models are stored and manipulated in response to interactive commands or by means of a pre-defined command file. The models may be combined as part of a hierarchical structure to represent physical systems without need to create a separate model which represents the combined system. System motion is simulated through the introduction of translation, rotation and scaling parameters upon a model within the system. The motion is then transmitted down through the system hierarchy of models in accordance with hierarchical definitions and joint movement limitations. The present invention also calls for a method of editing hierarchical structure in response to interactive commands or a command file such that a model may be included, deleted, copied or moved within multiple system model hierarchies. The present invention also calls for the definition of multiple viewpoints or cameras which may exist as part of a system hierarchy or as an independent camera. The simulated movement of the models and systems is graphically displayed on a monitor and a frame is recorded by means of a video controller. Multiple movement and hierarchy manipulations are then recorded as a sequence of frames which may be played back as an animation sequence on a video cassette recorder.

  3. Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Dieterich, J.H.; Yoshida, A.

    1998-01-01

    The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2-1.0 bars (0.02-0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to

  4. Recurrent Network models of sequence generation and memory

    PubMed Central

    Rajan, Kanaka; Harvey, Christopher D; Tank, David W

    2016-01-01

    SUMMARY Sequential activation of neurons is a common feature of network activity during a variety of behaviors, including working memory and decision making. Previous network models for sequences and memory emphasized specialized architectures in which a principled mechanism is pre-wired into their connectivity. Here, we demonstrate that starting from random connectivity and modifying a small fraction of connections, a largely disordered recurrent network can produce sequences and implement working memory efficiently. We use this process, called Partial In-Network training (PINning), to model and match cellular-resolution imaging data from the posterior parietal cortex during a virtual memory-guided two-alternative forced choice task [Harvey, Coen and Tank, 2012]. Analysis of the connectivity reveals that sequences propagate by the cooperation between recurrent synaptic interactions and external inputs, rather than through feedforward or asymmetric connections. Together our results suggest that neural sequences may emerge through learning from largely unstructured network architectures. PMID:26971945

  5. Using hidden Markov models to align multiple sequences.

    PubMed

    Mount, David W

    2009-07-01

    A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a probabilistic model of a multiple sequence alignment (msa) of proteins. In the model, each column of symbols in the alignment is represented by a frequency distribution of the symbols (called a "state"), and insertions and deletions are represented by other states. One moves through the model along a particular path from state to state in a Markov chain (i.e., random choice of next move), trying to match a given sequence. The next matching symbol is chosen from each state, recording its probability (frequency) and also the probability of going to that state from a previous one (the transition probability). State and transition probabilities are multiplied to obtain a probability of the given sequence. The hidden nature of the HMM is due to the lack of information about the value of a specific state, which is instead represented by a probability distribution over all possible values. This article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of HMMs in msa and presents algorithms for calculating an HMM and the conditions for producing the best HMM.

  6. Vere-Jones' self-similar branching model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Saichev, A.; Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095; Sornette, D.

    2005-11-01

    Motivated by its potential application to earthquake statistics as well as for its intrinsic interest in the theory of branching processes, we study the exactly self-similar branching process introduced recently by Vere-Jones. This model extends the ETAS class of conditional self-excited branching point-processes of triggered seismicity by removing the problematic need for a minimum (as well as maximum) earthquake size. To make the theory convergent without the need for the usual ultraviolet and infrared cutoffs, the distribution of magnitudes m{sup '} of daughters of first-generation of a mother of magnitude m has two branches m{sup '}m with exponent {beta}+d, where {beta} and d are two positive parameters. We investigate the condition and nature of the subcritical, critical, and supercritical regime in this and in an extended version interpolating smoothly between several models. We predict that the distribution of magnitudes of events triggered by a mother of magnitude m over all generations has also two branches m{sup '}m with exponent {beta}+h, with h=d{radical}(1-s), where s is the fraction of triggered events. This corresponds to a renormalization of the exponent d into h by the hierarchy of successive generations of triggered events. For a significant part of the parameter space, the distribution of magnitudes over a full catalog summed over an average steady flow of spontaneous sources (immigrants) reproduces the distribution of the spontaneous sources with a single branch and is blind to the exponents {beta},d of the distribution of triggered events. Since the distribution of earthquake magnitudes is usually obtained with catalogs including many sequences, we conclude that the two branches of the distribution of aftershocks are not directly observable and the model is compatible with real seismic catalogs. In summary, the exactly self-similar Vere-Jones model provides an

  7. Improved detection and relocation of micro-earthquakes applied to the Sea of Marmara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tary, J. B.; Evangelia, B.; Géli, L.; Lomax, A.

    2016-12-01

    The Sea of Marmara is located at the western end of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). This part of the NAF is considered as a seismic gap, being between the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes to the East and the Ganos earthquake to the West. Improved detection and location of seismicity in the Sea of Marmara is important for defining the seismic hazard in this area.On July 25, 2011, a Mw 5 earthquake occurred below the Western High in the western part of the Sea of Marmara. This earthquake as well as its aftershock sequence were recorded by a network of 10 ocean bottom seismometers (Ifremer) as well as seafloor observatories (KOERI). The OBSs were deployed from mid-April, 2011, to the end of July, 2011.The aftershock sequence is characterized by deep seismicity ( 10-15 km) around the main shock and shallow seismicity. Some of the shallow seismicity could be located at a similar depth as gas prone sediment layers below the Western High. The exact causes of these shallow aftershocks are still unclear. To better define this aftershock sequence, we use the match filter technique with a selection of aftershocks as templates to dig out child events from the continuous data streams. The templates are cross-correlated with the continuous data for stations with absolute time picks. The cross-correlation coefficients are then summed over all stations and components, and we then compute its median absolute deviation (MAD). Signals are detected when the summed cross-correlation time series exceeds a given number of times the MAD. Using a conservative detection threshold, we obtain a 10-fold increase in the number of events. The newly detected events are then relocated using the double-difference technique. With these newly detected events, we investigate the nucleation phase of the main shock and the aftershock sequence, as well as the possible triggering of the shallow aftershocks by the deeper seismicity.

  8. Simulating Next-Generation Sequencing Datasets from Empirical Mutation and Sequencing Models

    PubMed Central

    Stephens, Zachary D.; Hudson, Matthew E.; Mainzer, Liudmila S.; Taschuk, Morgan; Weber, Matthew R.; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

    2016-01-01

    An obstacle to validating and benchmarking methods for genome analysis is that there are few reference datasets available for which the “ground truth” about the mutational landscape of the sample genome is known and fully validated. Additionally, the free and public availability of real human genome datasets is incompatible with the preservation of donor privacy. In order to better analyze and understand genomic data, we need test datasets that model all variants, reflecting known biology as well as sequencing artifacts. Read simulators can fulfill this requirement, but are often criticized for limited resemblance to true data and overall inflexibility. We present NEAT (NExt-generation sequencing Analysis Toolkit), a set of tools that not only includes an easy-to-use read simulator, but also scripts to facilitate variant comparison and tool evaluation. NEAT has a wide variety of tunable parameters which can be set manually on the default model or parameterized using real datasets. The software is freely available at github.com/zstephens/neat-genreads. PMID:27893777

  9. The Rupture Characteristic of 1999 Izmit Sequence Using IRIS Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konca, A. O.; Helmberger, D. V.; Ji, C.; Tan, Y.

    2003-12-01

    The standard source studies use teleseismic data (30° to 90° ) to analyze earthquakes. Therefore, only a limited portion of the focal sphere is involved in source determinations. Furthermore, the locations and origin times of events remain incompatible with local determinations. Here, we attempt to resolve such issues by using IRIS data at all distances, leading to more accurate and detailed rupture properties and accurate relative locations. The 1999 Izmit earthquake sequence is chosen to test our method. The challenge of using data outside the conventional teleseismic distance range is that the arrival times and waveforms are affected more by the Earth structure. We overcome this difficulty by calibrating the path effects for the mainshock using the simpler aftershocks. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the source parameters of the aftershock. We constructed a Green's function library from a regionalized 1-D model and performed a grid search to establish the depth and fault parameters based on waveform matching for the Pnl waves between the synthetics and data, allowing the synthetics in each station to shift separately to account for the path effect. Our results show that the earthquake depth was around 7 km, rather than 19 km from local observatory (Kandilli) and 15 km from the Harvard's CMT solution. The best focal mechanism has a strike of 263° , a dip of 65° , and a rake of 180° , which is very close to the Harvard's CMT solution. The waveform fits of this aftershock is then used as a criterion to select useful source-station paths. A path with a cross-correlation value above 90% between data and synthetics is defined as a "good path" and can be used for studying the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes. We find that the stations in Central Europe and some of the Greek Islands are "good paths", while the stations in Northeast Africa and Italy cannot be used. The time shifts that give the best cross-correlation values are used to calibrate the picks of the

  10. Imaging the Crust in the Northern Sector of the 2009 L'Aquila Seismic Sequence through Oil Exploration Data Interpretation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grazia Ciaccio, Maria; Improta, Luigi; Patacca, Etta; Scandone, Paolo; Villani, Fabio

    2010-05-01

    The 2009 L'Aquila seismic sequence activated a complex, about 40 km long, NW-trending and SW-dipping normal fault system, consisting of three main faults arranged in right-lateral en-echelon geometry. While the northern sector of the epicentral area was extensively investigated by oil companies, only a few scattered, poor-quality commercial seismic profiles are available in the central and southern sector. In this study we interpret subsurface commercial data from the northern sector, which is the area where is located the source of the strong Mw5.4 aftershock occurred on the 9th April 2009. Our primary goals are: (1) to define a reliable framework of the upper crust structure, (2) to investigate how the intense aftershock activity, the bulk of which is clustered in the 5-10 km depth range, relates to the Quaternary extensional faults present in the area. The investigated area lies between the western termination of the W-E trending Gran Sasso thrust system to the south, the SW-NE trending Mt. Sibillini thrust front (Ancona-Anzio Line Auctt.) to the north and west, and by the NNW-SSE trending, SW-dipping Mt. Gorzano normal fault to the east. In this area only middle-upper Miocene deposits are exposed (Laga Flysch and underlying Cerrogna Marl), but commercial wells have revealed the presence of a Triassic-Miocene sedimentary succession identical to the well known Umbria-Marche stratigraphic sequence. We have analyzed several confidential seismic reflection profiles, mostly provided by ENI oil company. Seismic lines are tied to two public wells, 5766 m and 2541 m deep. Quality of the reflection imaging is highly variable. A few good quality stack sections contain interpretable signal down to 4.5-5.5 s TWT, corresponding to depths exceeding 10-12 km and thus allowing crustal imaging at seismogenic depths. Key-reflectors for the interpretation correspond to: (1) the top of the Miocene Cerrogna marls, (2) the top of the Upper Albian-Oligocene Scaglia Group, (3) the

  11. The 2016 Central Italy "reverse" seismic sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiaraluce, Lauro; Di Stefano, Raffaele; Tinti, Elisa; Scognamiglio, Laura; Michele, Maddalena; Cattaneo, Marco; De Gori, Pasquale; Chiarabba, Claudio; Monachesi, Giancarlo; Lombardi, Annamaria; Valoroso, Luisa; Latorre, Diana; Marzorati, Simone

    2017-04-01

    The 2016 seismic sequence consists so far of a series of moderate to large earthquakes that within three month's time activated a 60 km long segmented normal fault system located in the Central Italy and almost contiguous to the 1997 Colfiorito and 2009 L'Aquila normal fault systems. The first mainshock of the sequence occurred with MW6.0 on the 24th of August at 01:36 UTC close to the Accumoli and Amatrice villages producing evidence for centimetres' surface ruptures along the Mt. Vettore normal fault outcrop. Two months later on the 26th of October at 19:18 UTC another mainshock with MW5.9 occurred 25 km to the north activating another normal fault segment approximately on the along strike continuation of the first structure. Then, four days later on the 30th of October at 06:40 UTC the largest shock of the sequence with MW6.5 close to Norcia, in the middle part of the fault system activated two months before. We reconstruct the first order anatomy of the activated normal faults system, by analysing the spatial and temporal distribution of 25,354 aftershocks with 0.1aftershocks (up to M 4) occur. This basal layer is almost flat between 8-10km at the two edges of the fault system, while in the central portion it starts at about 6-7 km of depth to the west, reaching almost 12km to the east thus showing a gentle dip to the east. The variability observed all along the fault system in the anatomy of

  12. Main sequence models for massive zero-metal stars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cary, N.

    1974-01-01

    Zero-age main-sequence models for stars of 20, 10, 5, and 2 solar masses with no heavy elements are constructed for three different possible primordial helium abundances: Y=0.00, Y=0.23, and Y=0.30. The latter two values of Y bracket the range of primordial helium abundances cited by Wagoner. With the exceptions of the two 20 solar mass models that contain helium, these models are found to be self-consistent in the sense that the formation of carbon through the triple-alpha process during premain sequence contraction is not sufficient to bring the CN cycle into competition with the proton-proton chain on the ZAMS. The zero-metal models of the present study have higher surface and central temperatures, higher central densities, smaller radii, and smaller convective cores than do the population I models with the same masses.

  13. Kinect Technology Game Play to Mimic Quake Catcher Network (QCN) Sensor Deployment During a Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (RAMP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilb, D. L.; Yang, A.; Rohrlick, D.; Cochran, E. S.; Lawrence, J.; Chung, A. I.; Neighbors, C.; Choo, Y.

    2011-12-01

    The Kinect technology allows for hands-free game play, greatly increasing the accessibility of gaming for those uncomfortable using controllers. How it works is the Kinect camera transmits invisible near-infrared light and measures its "time of flight" to reflect off an object, allowing it to distinguish objects within 1 centimeter in depth and 3 mm in height and width. The middleware can also respond to body gestures and voice commands. Here, we use the Kinect Windows SDK software to create a game that mimics how scientists deploy seismic instruments following a large earthquake. The educational goal of the game is to allow the players to explore 3D space as they learn about the Quake Catcher Network's (QCN) Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (RAMP). Many of the scenarios within the game are taken from factual RAMP experiences. To date, only the PC platform (or a Mac running PC emulator software) is available for use, but we hope to move to other platforms (e.g., Xbox 360, iPad, iPhone) as they become available. The game is written in programming language C# using Microsoft XNA and Visual Studio 2010, graphic shading is added using High Level Shader Language (HLSL), and rendering is produced using XNA's graphics libraries. Key elements of the game include selecting sensor locations, adequately installing the sensor, and monitoring the incoming data. During game play aftershocks can occur unexpectedly, as can other problems that require attention (e.g., power outages, equipment failure, and theft). The player accrues points for quickly deploying the first sensor (recording as many initial aftershocks as possible), correctly installing the sensors (orientation with respect to north, properly securing, and testing), distributing the sensors adequately in the region, and troubleshooting problems. One can also net points for efficient use of game play time. Setting up for game play in your local environment requires: (1) the Kinect hardware ( $145); (2) a computer

  14. Assessment of teleseismically-determined source parameters for the April 25, 2015 MW 7.9 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake and the May 12, 2015 MW 7.2 aftershock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lay, Thorne; Ye, Lingling; Koper, Keith D.; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2017-09-01

    On April 25, 2015 a major (MW 7.9) thrust earthquake ruptured the deeper portion of the seismogenic plate boundary beneath Nepal along which India is underthrusting Eurasia. An MW 7.2 aftershock on May 12, 2015 extended the eastern, down-dip edge of the rupture. These destructive events caused about 9000 fatalities and 23,000 injuries. The overall rupture zone is about 170 km long and 40-80 km wide. This region of the plate boundary previously experienced a large earthquake in 1833, and in 1934 a larger MS 8.0 event located to the east ruptured all the way to the surface. The Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) on which slip occurred in 2015 has a very low dip angle of 6°, and the depth of the mainshock slip distribution is very shallow, extending from 7 to 18 km. The shallow dip and depth present challenges for resolving faulting characteristics using teleseismic data. We analyze global teleseismic signals for the mainshock and aftershock to estimate source parameters, evaluating the stability of various procedures used for remotely characterizing kinematics of such shallow faulting. Back-projection and finite-fault slip inversion are used to assess the spatio-temporal rupture history and evidence for frequency-dependent radiation along dip. Slip zone width constraints from near-field geodetic observations are imposed on the preferred models to overcome some limitations of purely teleseismic methods. Radiated energy, stress drop and moment rate functions are determined for both events.

  15. Relationship between Near-Field and Teleseismic Observations of Seismic Source Parameters

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1978-07-01

    For example, foreshocks and aftershocks of the Utah-Idaho border and Oroville, California sequences of 1975, as recorded at the Albuquerque SRO station...have been analyzed and compared; in both cases the principal foreshock exhibited the same mechanisms as the main shock, while the aftershocks are

  16. Constraining Source Locations of Shallow Subduction Megathrust Earthquakes in 1-D and 3-D Velocity Models - A Case Study of the 2002 Mw=6.4 Osa Earthquake, Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grevemeyer, I.; Arroyo, I. G.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake source locations are generally routinely constrained using a global 1-D Earth model. However, the source location might be associated with large uncertainties. This is definitively the case for earthquakes occurring at active continental margins were thin oceanic crust subducts below thick continental crust and hence large lateral changes in crustal thickness occur as a function of distance to the deep-sea trench. Here, we conducted a case study of the 2002 Mw 6.4 Osa thrust earthquake in Costa Rica that was followed by an aftershock sequence. Initial relocations indicated that the main shock occurred fairly trenchward of most large earthquakes along the Middle America Trench off central Costa Rica. The earthquake sequence occurred while a temporary network of ocean-bottom-hydrophones and land stations 80 km to the northwest were deployed. By adding readings from permanent Costa Rican stations, we obtain uncommon P wave coverage of a large subduction zone earthquake. We relocated this catalog using a nonlinear probabilistic approach using a 1-D and two 3-D P-wave velocity models. The 3-D model was either derived from 3-D tomography based on onshore stations and a priori model based on seismic refraction data. All epicentres occurred close to the trench axis, but depth estimates vary by several tens of kilometres. Based on the epicentres and constraints from seismic reflection data the main shock occurred 25 km from the trench and probably along the plate interface at 5-10 km depth. The source location that agreed best with the geology was based on the 3-D velocity model derived from a priori data. Aftershocks propagated downdip to the area of a 1999 Mw 6.9 sequence and partially overlapped it. The results indicate that underthrusting of the young and buoyant Cocos Ridge has created conditions for interpolate seismogenesis shallower and closer to the trench axis than elsewhere along the central Costa Rica margin.

  17. SIBIS: a Bayesian model for inconsistent protein sequence estimation.

    PubMed

    Khenoussi, Walyd; Vanhoutrève, Renaud; Poch, Olivier; Thompson, Julie D

    2014-09-01

    The prediction of protein coding genes is a major challenge that depends on the quality of genome sequencing, the accuracy of the model used to elucidate the exonic structure of the genes and the complexity of the gene splicing process leading to different protein variants. As a consequence, today's protein databases contain a huge amount of inconsistency, due to both natural variants and sequence prediction errors. We have developed a new method, called SIBIS, to detect such inconsistencies based on the evolutionary information in multiple sequence alignments. A Bayesian framework, combined with Dirichlet mixture models, is used to estimate the probability of observing specific amino acids and to detect inconsistent or erroneous sequence segments. We evaluated the performance of SIBIS on a reference set of protein sequences with experimentally validated errors and showed that the sensitivity is significantly higher than previous methods, with only a small loss of specificity. We also assessed a large set of human sequences from the UniProt database and found evidence of inconsistency in 48% of the previously uncharacterized sequences. We conclude that the integration of quality control methods like SIBIS in automatic analysis pipelines will be critical for the robust inference of structural, functional and phylogenetic information from these sequences. Source code, implemented in C on a linux system, and the datasets of protein sequences are freely available for download at http://www.lbgi.fr/∼julie/SIBIS. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Conversation Event Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masuda, Naoki; Takaguchi, Taro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo

    Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for individuals are highly bursty. We examine some basic properties of event sequences generated by the Hawkes self-exciting process to show that it generates bursty interevent times for a wide parameter range. Then, we fit the model to the data of conversation sequences recorded in company offices in Japan. In this way, we can estimate relative magnitudes of the self excitement, its temporal decay, and the base event rate independent of the self excitation. These variables highly depend on individuals. We also point out that the Hawkes model has an important limitation that the correlation in the interevent times and the burstiness cannot be independently modulated.

  19. Strong-motion observations of the M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence and development of the N-shake strong-motion network

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dixit, Amod; Ringler, Adam; Sumy, Danielle F.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey; Gibbons, Steven; Luetgert, James H.; Galetzka, John; Shrestha, Surya; Rajaure, Sudhir; McNamara, Daniel E.

    2015-01-01

    We present and describe strong-motion data observations from the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence collected using existing and new Quake-Catcher Network (QCN) and U.S. Geological Survey NetQuakes sensors located in the Kathmandu Valley. A comparison of QCN data with waveforms recorded by a conventional strong-motion (NetQuakes) instrument validates the QCN data. We present preliminary analysis of spectral accelerations, and peak ground acceleration and velocity for earthquakes up to M 7.3 from the QCN stations, as well as preliminary analysis of the mainshock recording from the NetQuakes station. We show that mainshock peak accelerations were lower than expected and conclude the Kathmandu Valley experienced a pervasively nonlinear response during the mainshock. Phase picks from the QCN and NetQuakes data are also used to improve aftershock locations. This study confirms the utility of QCN instruments to contribute to ground-motion investigations and aftershock response in regions where conventional instrumentation and open-access seismic data are limited. Initial pilot installations of QCN instruments in 2014 are now being expanded to create the Nepal–Shaking Hazard Assessment for Kathmandu and its Environment (N-SHAKE) network.

  20. Universal Sequence Replication, Reversible Polymerization and Early Functional Biopolymers: A Model for the Initiation of Prebiotic Sequence Evolution

    PubMed Central

    Walker, Sara Imari; Grover, Martha A.; Hud, Nicholas V.

    2012-01-01

    Many models for the origin of life have focused on understanding how evolution can drive the refinement of a preexisting enzyme, such as the evolution of efficient replicase activity. Here we present a model for what was, arguably, an even earlier stage of chemical evolution, when polymer sequence diversity was generated and sustained before, and during, the onset of functional selection. The model includes regular environmental cycles (e.g. hydration-dehydration cycles) that drive polymers between times of replication and functional activity, which coincide with times of different monomer and polymer diffusivity. Template-directed replication of informational polymers, which takes place during the dehydration stage of each cycle, is considered to be sequence-independent. New sequences are generated by spontaneous polymer formation, and all sequences compete for a finite monomer resource that is recycled via reversible polymerization. Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that this proposed prebiotic scenario provides a robust mechanism for the exploration of sequence space. Introduction of a polymer sequence with monomer synthetase activity illustrates that functional sequences can become established in a preexisting pool of otherwise non-functional sequences. Functional selection does not dominate system dynamics and sequence diversity remains high, permitting the emergence and spread of more than one functional sequence. It is also observed that polymers spontaneously form clusters in simulations where polymers diffuse more slowly than monomers, a feature that is reminiscent of a previous proposal that the earliest stages of life could have been defined by the collective evolution of a system-wide cooperation of polymer aggregates. Overall, the results presented demonstrate the merits of considering plausible prebiotic polymer chemistries and environments that would have allowed for the rapid turnover of monomer resources and for regularly varying monomer

  1. Using variable rate models to identify genes under selection in sequence pairs: their validity and limitations for EST sequences.

    PubMed

    Church, Sheri A; Livingstone, Kevin; Lai, Zhao; Kozik, Alexander; Knapp, Steven J; Michelmore, Richard W; Rieseberg, Loren H

    2007-02-01

    Using likelihood-based variable selection models, we determined if positive selection was acting on 523 EST sequence pairs from two lineages of sunflower and lettuce. Variable rate models are generally not used for comparisons of sequence pairs due to the limited information and the inaccuracy of estimates of specific substitution rates. However, previous studies have shown that the likelihood ratio test (LRT) is reliable for detecting positive selection, even with low numbers of sequences. These analyses identified 56 genes that show a signature of selection, of which 75% were not identified by simpler models that average selection across codons. Subsequent mapping studies in sunflower show four of five of the positively selected genes identified by these methods mapped to domestication QTLs. We discuss the validity and limitations of using variable rate models for comparisons of sequence pairs, as well as the limitations of using ESTs for identification of positively selected genes.

  2. Modeling read counts for CNV detection in exome sequencing data.

    PubMed

    Love, Michael I; Myšičková, Alena; Sun, Ruping; Kalscheuer, Vera; Vingron, Martin; Haas, Stefan A

    2011-11-08

    Varying depth of high-throughput sequencing reads along a chromosome makes it possible to observe copy number variants (CNVs) in a sample relative to a reference. In exome and other targeted sequencing projects, technical factors increase variation in read depth while reducing the number of observed locations, adding difficulty to the problem of identifying CNVs. We present a hidden Markov model for detecting CNVs from raw read count data, using background read depth from a control set as well as other positional covariates such as GC-content. The model, exomeCopy, is applied to a large chromosome X exome sequencing project identifying a list of large unique CNVs. CNVs predicted by the model and experimentally validated are then recovered using a cross-platform control set from publicly available exome sequencing data. Simulations show high sensitivity for detecting heterozygous and homozygous CNVs, outperforming normalization and state-of-the-art segmentation methods.

  3. The 2013 Crete (Hellenic Arc) Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karakostas, V. G.; Papadimitriou, E. E.; Vallianatos, F.

    2014-12-01

    The western Hellenic Arc is a well known place of active interplate deformation, where the convergence motion vector is perpendicular to the subduction front. On 12 October 2013 this area was hit by a strong (Mw=6.7) earthquake, occurred on a thrust fault onto the coupled part of the overriding and descending plates, with the compression axis being oriented in the direction of plate convergence. This was the first strong (M>6.0) event to have occurred onto this segment of the descending slab, which has accommodated the largest (M8.3) known earthquake in the Mediterranean area, and to be recorded by the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network (HUSN) that has been considerably improved in the last five years. The first 2-days relocated seismicity shows activation of the upper part of the descending slab, downdip of the plate interface and forming a relatively narrow aftershock area on map view. The less densely visited by aftershocks area, where the main shock is also encompassed, is considered as the high-slip area along the downdip portion of the subducting plane. Dense concentration of the intraslab aftershocks are probably due to the increase of static stress generated by the main shock. A spectacular feature of the aftershock activity concerns the lateral extension of the slipped area, which appears very sharply defined. This provides evidence on localized coupling and aseismically creeping areas, explaining the low coupling ratio in the Hellenic Arc, as it derives from comparison between relative plate motion and seismic energy release. Elucidating the issue of how far the associated large-slip zone might be extended along the plate interface during the main rupture is crucial in assessing future earthquake hazards from subduction events in the study area. This research has been co-funded by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national resources under the framework of the "THALES Program: SEISMO FEAR HELLARC" project.

  4. Generating Models of Surgical Procedures using UMLS Concepts and Multiple Sequence Alignment

    PubMed Central

    Meng, Frank; D’Avolio, Leonard W.; Chen, Andrew A.; Taira, Ricky K.; Kangarloo, Hooshang

    2005-01-01

    Surgical procedures can be viewed as a process composed of a sequence of steps performed on, by, or with the patient’s anatomy. This sequence is typically the pattern followed by surgeons when generating surgical report narratives for documenting surgical procedures. This paper describes a methodology for semi-automatically deriving a model of conducted surgeries, utilizing a sequence of derived Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) concepts for representing surgical procedures. A multiple sequence alignment was computed from a collection of such sequences and was used for generating the model. These models have the potential of being useful in a variety of informatics applications such as information retrieval and automatic document generation. PMID:16779094

  5. Modeling of high‐frequency seismic‐wave scattering and propagation using radiative transfer theory

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zeng, Yuehua

    2017-01-01

    This is a study of the nonisotropic scattering process based on radiative transfer theory and its application to the observation of the M 4.3 aftershock recording of the 2008 Wells earthquake sequence in Nevada. Given a wide range of recording distances from 29 to 320 km, the data provide a unique opportunity to discriminate scattering models based on their distance‐dependent behaviors. First, we develop a stable numerical procedure to simulate nonisotropic scattering waves based on the 3D nonisotropic scattering theory proposed by Sato (1995). By applying the simulation method to the inversion of M 4.3 Wells aftershock recordings, we find that a nonisotropic scattering model, dominated by forward scattering, provides the best fit to the observed high‐frequency direct S waves and S‐wave coda velocity envelopes. The scattering process is governed by a Gaussian autocorrelation function, suggesting a Gaussian random heterogeneous structure for the Nevada crust. The model successfully explains the common decay of seismic coda independent of source–station locations as a result of energy leaking from multiple strong forward scattering, instead of backscattering governed by the diffusion solution at large lapse times. The model also explains the pulse‐broadening effect in the high‐frequency direct and early arriving S waves, as other studies have found, and could be very important to applications of high‐frequency wave simulation in which scattering has a strong effect. We also find that regardless of its physical implications, the isotropic scattering model provides the same effective scattering coefficient and intrinsic attenuation estimates as the forward scattering model, suggesting that the isotropic scattering model is still a viable tool for the study of seismic scattering and intrinsic attenuation coefficients in the Earth.

  6. Dense array recordings in the San Bernardino Valley of landers-big bear aftershocks: Basin surface waves, Moho reflections, and three-dimensional simulations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frankel, Arthur

    1994-01-01

    Fourteen GEOS seismic recorders were deployed in the San Bernardino Valley to study the propagation of short-period (T ≈ 1 to 3 sec) surface waves and Moho reflections. Three dense arrays were used to determine the direction and speed of propagation of arrivals in the seismograms. The seismograms for a shallow (d ≈ 1 km) M 4.9 aftershock of the Big Bear earthquake exhibit a very long duration (60 sec) of sustained shaking at periods of about 2 sec. Array analysis indicates that these late arrivals are dominated by surface waves traveling in various directions across the Valley. Some energy is arriving from a direction 180° from the epicenter and was apparently reflected from the edge of the Valley opposite the source. A close-in aftershock (Δ = 25 km, depth = 7 km) displays substantial short-period surface waves at deep-soil sites. A three-dimensional (3D) finite difference simulation produces synthetic seismograms with durations similar to those of the observed records for this event, indicating the importance of S-wave to surface-wave conversion near the edge of the basin. Flat-layered models severely underpredict the duration and spectral amplification of this deep-soil site. I show an example where the coda wave amplitude ratio at 1 to 2 Hz between a deep-soil and a rock site does not equal the S-wave amplitude ratio, because of the presence of surface waves in the coda of the deep-soil site. For one of the events studied (Δ ≈ 90 km), there are sizable phases that are critically reflected from the Moho (PmP and SmS). At one of the rock sites, the SmS phase has a more peaked spectrum that the direct S wave.

  7. Transpressional Structure in Chiayi Area, Taiwan: Insight from the 2017 ML5.1 Zhongpu Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, K. F.; Huang, H. H.

    2017-12-01

    The Chiayi area is located at the deformation front of active fold-and-thrust belt of Taiwan, where the fault system is composed primarily of a series of north-south-trending east-dipping thrusts and also an east-west-trending strike-slip fault (Meishan Fault, MSF) with right-lateral faulting. On 24th May 2017, a ML 5.1 earthquake occurred at Zhongpu, Chiayi (namely Zhongpu earthquake), however, shows a left-lateral strike-slip faulting distinct from the known structure in the area. The distribution of the reported aftershocks is difficult to distinguish the actual fault plane. To determine the fault plane of this abnormal earthquake and investigate its structural relationships to the regional tectonics, we relocate the earthquake sequence and estimate the rupture directivity of the mainshock by using the 3-D double difference hypocenter relocation method (Lin, 2013) and the 3-D directivity moment tensor inversion method (DMT, Huang et al., 2017, submitted). The DMT results show that the rupture directivity of the Zhongpu earthquake is west- and down-ward along the east-west fault plane, which also agrees with east-west-distributed aftershocks after relocation. As a result, the Zhongpu earthquake reveals an undiscovered east-west-trending structure which is sub-parallel with the MSF but with opposite faulting direction, exhibiting a complex transpressional tectonic regime in the Chiayi area.

  8. Identification and characterization of earthquake clusters: a comparative analysis for selected sequences in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peresan, Antonella; Gentili, Stefania

    2017-04-01

    Identification and statistical characterization of seismic clusters may provide useful insights about the features of seismic energy release and their relation to physical properties of the crust within a given region. Moreover, a number of studies based on spatio-temporal analysis of main-shocks occurrence require preliminary declustering of the earthquake catalogs. Since various methods, relying on different physical/statistical assumptions, may lead to diverse classifications of earthquakes into main events and related events, we aim to investigate the classification differences among different declustering techniques. Accordingly, a formal selection and comparative analysis of earthquake clusters is carried out for the most relevant earthquakes in North-Eastern Italy, as reported in the local OGS-CRS bulletins, compiled at the National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics since 1977. The comparison is then extended to selected earthquake sequences associated with a different seismotectonic setting, namely to events that occurred in the region struck by the recent Central Italy destructive earthquakes, making use of INGV data. Various techniques, ranging from classical space-time windows methods to ad hoc manual identification of aftershocks, are applied for detection of earthquake clusters. In particular, a statistical method based on nearest-neighbor distances of events in space-time-energy domain, is considered. Results from clusters identification by the nearest-neighbor method turn out quite robust with respect to the time span of the input catalogue, as well as to minimum magnitude cutoff. The identified clusters for the largest events reported in North-Eastern Italy since 1977 are well consistent with those reported in earlier studies, which were aimed at detailed manual aftershocks identification. The study shows that the data-driven approach, based on the nearest-neighbor distances, can be satisfactorily applied to decompose the seismic

  9. Focal Mechanisms and Stress Environment of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan, China, Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, L.; Luo, Y.; Ni, S.

    2012-12-01

    The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw=7.9) was the largest earthquake in China ever recorded by modern seismic instruments. It generated numerous moderate sized aftershocks that were well recorded by both permanent stations as well as portable instruments deployed after the mainshock. These waveform records yield high-quality data for the determination of focal mechanisms of aftershocks, which in turn provide important information for the investigation of regional stress field and the seismogenic environment in the Wenchuan earthquake source region. In this study, we determine the focal mechanisms, depths and moment magnitudes of moderate-sized (Mw ≥ 4.0) Wenchuan aftershocks using broadband waveform records. The focal mechanism results are then used to obtain the orientation and ratio of the principle stresses by the damped linear stress inversion method of Hardebeck & Michael (2006). Our results show that the majority of the moderate aftershocks occur at a depth range of 10-20 km and outside of the major rupture zones of the mainshock. The Wenchuan source region remains under a nearly horizontal compression with mostly thrust and occasional strike-slip faulting, especially towards the two ends of the rupture of the main shock. There is also clearly local variations in the orientation of the principle stresses.

  10. Statistical Analysis of Seismicity in the Sumatra Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bansal, A.; Main, I.

    2007-12-01

    We examine the effect of the great M=9.0 Boxing day 2004 earthquake on the statistics of seismicity in the Sumatra region by dividing data from the NEIC catalogue into two time windows before and after the earthquake. First we determine a completeness threshold of magnitude 4.5 for the whole dataset from the stability of the maximum likelihood b-value with respect to changes in the threshold. The split data sets have similar statistical sampling, with 2563 events before and 3701 after the event. Temporal clustering is first quantified broadly by the fractal dimension of the time series to be respectively 0.137, 0.259 and 0.222 before, after and for the whole dataset, compared to a Poisson null hypothesis of 0, indicating a significant increase in temporal clustering after the event associated with aftershocks. To quantify this further we apply the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. The background random seismicity rate £g and the coefficient Ñ, a measure of an efficiency of a magnitude of an earthquake in generating its aftershocks, do not change significantly when averaged over the two time periods. In contrast the amplitude A of aftershock generation changes by a factor 4 or so, and there is a small but statistically significant increase in the Omori decay exponent p, indicating a faster decay rate of the aftershocks after the Sumatra earthquake. The ETAS model parameters are calculated for different magnitude threshold (i.e. 4.5, 5.0, 5.5) with similar results for the different magnitude thresholds. The Ñ values increases from near 1 to near 1.5, possibly reflecting known changes in the scaling exponent between scalar moment and magnitude with increasing magnitude. A simple relation of magnitude and span of aftershock activity indicates that detectable aftershock activity of the Sumatra earthquake may last up to 8.7 years. Earthquakes are predominantly in the depth range 30-40 km before 20-30 km after the mainshock, compared to a CMT centroid

  11. Seismicity of the Pahute Mesa area, Nevada Test Site: 8 October 1975 to 30 June 1976

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rogers, A.M.; Wuollet, Geraldine M.; Covington, P.A.

    1977-01-01

    A total of 1,075 earthquakes occurred in the Pahute Mesa area with 2.5≤ML≤4.9 during the period October 28, 1975, to June 28, 1976. The majority of these earthquakes are aftershocks of the nuclear events, Kasseri, Inlet, Muenster, Fontina, Cheshire, Estuary, Colby, and Pool (5.8≤ML≤6.3). Smaller nuclear events (ML≤5.5) on Rainier Mesa and Yucca Flat detonated in the same time period did not trigger aftershock sequences. The aftershock series were displaced laterally from ground zero and occurred deeper (at 4–6 km) than the nuclear even depth of burial (~1 km). The aftershocks appear to occur on vertical faults with approximately north-south strike.

  12. Random variability explains apparent global clustering of large earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.

    2011-01-01

    The occurrence of 5 Mw ≥ 8.5 earthquakes since 2004 has created a debate over whether or not we are in a global cluster of large earthquakes, temporarily raising risks above long-term levels. I use three classes of statistical tests to determine if the record of M ≥ 7 earthquakes since 1900 can reject a null hypothesis of independent random events with a constant rate plus localized aftershock sequences. The data cannot reject this null hypothesis. Thus, the temporal distribution of large global earthquakes is well-described by a random process, plus localized aftershocks, and apparent clustering is due to random variability. Therefore the risk of future events has not increased, except within ongoing aftershock sequences, and should be estimated from the longest possible record of events.

  13. Triggered aseismic slip adjacent to the 6 February 2013 Mw 8.0 Santa Cruz Islands megathrust earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayes, Gavin P.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Benz, Harley M.; Herman, Matthew W.

    2014-01-01

    Aseismic or slow slip events have been observed in many subduction zones, but whether they affect the occurrence of earthquakes or result from stress changes caused by nearby events is unclear. In an area lacking direct geodetic observations, inferences can be made from seismological studies of co-seismic slip, associated stress changes and the spatiotemporal nature of aftershocks. These observations indicate that the February 2013 Mw 8.0 Santa Cruz Islands earthquake may have triggered slow or aseismic slip on an adjacent section of the subduction thrust over the following hours to days. This aseismic event was equivalent to Mw 7.6, significantly larger than any earthquakes in the aftershock sequence. The aseismic slip was situated within the seismogenic portion of the subduction interface, and must have occurred to the south of the main seismic slip and most aftershocks in order to promote right-lateral faulting in the upper plate, the dominant deformation style of the aftershock sequence. This plate boundary segment can support either stable sliding (aseismic) or stick-slip (seismic) deformation in response to different driving conditions. The complete lack of aftershocks on the thrust interface implies this pair of megathrust slip episodes (seismic and aseismic) released a substantial portion of the stored strain on the northernmost section of the Vanuatu subduction zone.

  14. Static stress drop of the largest recorded M 4.6 hydraulic fracturing induced earthquake and its aftershock pattern in the northern Montney Play, British Columbia, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, B.; Harrington, R. M.; Liu, Y.; Kao, H.

    2016-12-01

    The largest suspected fracking-induced earthquake to date occurred near Fort St. John, British Columbia on August 17, 2015, with a reported magnitude of Mw 4.6. Here we estimate the static stress released by the mainshock and the five cataloged aftershocks using new data from eight broadband seismometers installed approximately 50km from the hypocenter of the mainshock, at distances much closer than the Natural Resources Canada regional seismic stations. The estimated cross-correlation coefficient among the 5 cataloged earthquakes is 0.35 or greater. We will present seismic moment (M0) and spectral corner frequency (fc) values estimated using both individual earthquake spectra and spectral ratios to correct for travel-path attenuation and site effects. Static stress drop and scaled energy value calculations based on the estimated moment and corner frequency values will be presented, as well as focal mechanisms for the largest events with adequate station coverage. We will also use a multi-station matched-filter approach to detect additional uncataloged earthquakes on continuous waveforms for a period of two months after the mainshock. Using the results of the matched-filter approach, we will present the aftershock magnitude distribution and locations. The results of our detection and location calculations will be compared to reported fracking parameters, such as fluid injection pressure and duration, to determine their correlation with the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks. The objective of this study is to relate operational parameters to earthquake occurrence in order to help to develop procedures to understand the mechanisms responsible for fracking induced earthquakes, their relation to the maximum induced magnitude, and to reduce potential hazards of anthropogenically induced seismic activity.

  15. Earthquakes induced by fluid injection and explosion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Healy, J.H.; Hamilton, R.M.; Raleigh, C.B.

    1970-01-01

    Earthquakes generated by fluid injection near Denver, Colorado, are compared with earthquakes triggered by nuclear explosion at the Nevada Test Site. Spatial distributions of the earthquakes in both cases are compatible with the hypothesis that variation of fluid pressure in preexisting fractures controls the time distribution of the seismic events in an "aftershock" sequence. We suggest that the fluid pressure changes may also control the distribution in time and space of natural aftershock sequences and of earthquakes that have been reported near large reservoirs. ?? 1970.

  16. Training the max-margin sequence model with the relaxed slack variables.

    PubMed

    Niu, Lingfeng; Wu, Jianmin; Shi, Yong

    2012-09-01

    Sequence models are widely used in many applications such as natural language processing, information extraction and optical character recognition, etc. We propose a new approach to train the max-margin based sequence model by relaxing the slack variables in this paper. With the canonical feature mapping definition, the relaxed problem is solved by training a multiclass Support Vector Machine (SVM). Compared with the state-of-the-art solutions for the sequence learning, the new method has the following advantages: firstly, the sequence training problem is transformed into a multiclassification problem, which is more widely studied and already has quite a few off-the-shelf training packages; secondly, this new approach reduces the complexity of training significantly and achieves comparable prediction performance compared with the existing sequence models; thirdly, when the size of training data is limited, by assigning different slack variables to different microlabel pairs, the new method can use the discriminative information more frugally and produces more reliable model; last but not least, by employing kernels in the intermediate multiclass SVM, nonlinear feature space can be easily explored. Experimental results on the task of named entity recognition, information extraction and handwritten letter recognition with the public datasets illustrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our method. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Strain rates, stress markers and earthquake clustering (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fry, B.; Gerstenberger, M.; Abercrombie, R. E.; Reyners, M.; Eberhart-Phillips, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    The 2010-present Canterbury earthquakes comprise a well-recorded sequence in a relatively low strain-rate shallow crustal region. We present new scientific results to test the hypothesis that: Earthquake sequences in low-strain rate areas experience high stress drop events, low-post seismic relaxation, and accentuated seismic clustering. This hypothesis is based on a physical description of the aftershock process in which the spatial distribution of stress accumulation and stress transfer are controlled by fault strength and orientation. Following large crustal earthquakes, time dependent forecasts are often developed by fitting parameters defined by Omori's aftershock decay law. In high-strain rate areas, simple forecast models utilizing a single p-value fit observed aftershock sequences well. In low-strain rate areas such as Canterbury, assumptions of simple Omori decay may not be sufficient to capture the clustering (sub-sequence) nature exhibited by the punctuated rise in activity following significant child events. In Canterbury, the moment release is more clustered than in more typical Omori sequences. The individual earthquakes in these clusters also exhibit somewhat higher stress drops than in the average crustal sequence in high-strain rate regions, suggesting the earthquakes occur on strong Andersonian-oriented faults, possibly juvenile or well-healed . We use the spectral ratio procedure outlined in (Viegas et al., 2010) to determine corner frequencies and Madariaga stress-drop values for over 800 events in the sequence. Furthermore, we will discuss the relevance of tomographic results of Reyners and Eberhart-Phillips (2013) documenting post-seismic stress-driven fluid processes following the three largest events in the sequence as well as anisotropic patterns in surface wave tomography (Fry et al., 2013). These tomographic studies are both compatible with the hypothesis, providing strong evidence for the presence of widespread and hydrated regional

  18. Multifractal Omori law for earthquake triggering: new tests on the California, Japan and worldwide catalogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouillon, G.; Sornette, D.; Ribeiro, E.

    2009-07-01

    The Multifractal Stress-Activated model is a statistical model of triggered seismicity based on mechanical and thermodynamic principles. It predicts that, above a triggering magnitude cut-off M0, the exponent p of the Omori law for the time decay of the rate of aftershocks is a linear increasing function p(M) = a0M + b0 of the main shock magnitude M. We previously reported empirical support for this prediction, using the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) catalogue. Here, we confirm this observation using an updated, longer version of the same catalogue, as well as new methods to estimate p. One of this methods is the newly defined Scaling Function Analysis (SFA), adapted from the wavelet transform. This method is able to measure a mathematical singularity (hence a p-value), erasing the possible regular part of a time-series. The SFA also proves particularly efficient to reveal the coexistence and superposition of several types of relaxation laws (typical Omori sequences and short-lived swarms sequences) which can be mixed within the same catalogue. Another new method consists in monitoring the largest aftershock magnitude observed in successive time intervals, and thus shortcuts the problem of missing events with small magnitudes in aftershock catalogues. The same methods are used on data from the worldwide Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogue and show results compatible with those of Southern California. For the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalogue, we still observe a linear dependence of p on M, but with a smaller slope. The SFA shows however that results for this catalogue may be biased by numerous swarm sequences, despite our efforts to remove them before the analysis.

  19. Sequence-structure relationships in RNA loops: establishing the basis for loop homology modeling.

    PubMed

    Schudoma, Christian; May, Patrick; Nikiforova, Viktoria; Walther, Dirk

    2010-01-01

    The specific function of RNA molecules frequently resides in their seemingly unstructured loop regions. We performed a systematic analysis of RNA loops extracted from experimentally determined three-dimensional structures of RNA molecules. A comprehensive loop-structure data set was created and organized into distinct clusters based on structural and sequence similarity. We detected clear evidence of the hallmark of homology present in the sequence-structure relationships in loops. Loops differing by <25% in sequence identity fold into very similar structures. Thus, our results support the application of homology modeling for RNA loop model building. We established a threshold that may guide the sequence divergence-based selection of template structures for RNA loop homology modeling. Of all possible sequences that are, under the assumption of isosteric relationships, theoretically compatible with actual sequences observed in RNA structures, only a small fraction is contained in the Rfam database of RNA sequences and classes implying that the actual RNA loop space may consist of a limited number of unique loop structures and conserved sequences. The loop-structure data sets are made available via an online database, RLooM. RLooM also offers functionalities for the modeling of RNA loop structures in support of RNA engineering and design efforts.

  20. Reflections on Communicating Science during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence of 2010-2011, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Berryman, K. R.; Jolly, G. E.; Brackley, H. L.; Gledhill, K. R.

    2015-12-01

    The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence began with the 4th September 2010 Darfield earthquake (Mw 7.1). Perhaps because there were no deaths, the mood of the city and the government was that high standards of earthquake engineering in New Zealand protected us, and there was a confident attitude to response and recovery. The demand for science and engineering information was of interest but not seen as crucial to policy, business or the public. The 22nd February 2011 Christchurch earthquake (Mw 6.2) changed all that; there was a significant death toll and many injuries. There was widespread collapse of older unreinforced and two relatively modern multi-storey buildings, and major disruption to infrastructure. The contrast in the interest and relevance of the science could not have been greater compared to 5 months previously. Magnitude 5+ aftershocks over a 20 month period resulted in confusion, stress, an inability to define a recovery trajectory, major concerns about whether insurers and reinsurers would continue to provide cover, very high levels of media interest from New Zealand and around the world, and high levels of political risk. As the aftershocks continued there was widespread speculation as to what the future held. During the sequence, the science and engineering sector sought to coordinate and offer timely and integrated advice. However, other than GeoNet, the national geophysical monitoring network, there were few resources devoted to communication, with the result that it was almost always reactive. With hindsight we have identified the need to resource information gathering and synthesis, execute strategic assessments of stakeholder needs, undertake proactive communication, and develop specific information packages for the diversity of users. Overall this means substantially increased resources. Planning is now underway for the science sector to adopt the New Zealand standardised CIMS (Coordinated Incident Management System) structure for

  1. TCRmodel: high resolution modeling of T cell receptors from sequence.

    PubMed

    Gowthaman, Ragul; Pierce, Brian G

    2018-05-22

    T cell receptors (TCRs), along with antibodies, are responsible for specific antigen recognition in the adaptive immune response, and millions of unique TCRs are estimated to be present in each individual. Understanding the structural basis of TCR targeting has implications in vaccine design, autoimmunity, as well as T cell therapies for cancer. Given advances in deep sequencing leading to immune repertoire-level TCR sequence data, fast and accurate modeling methods are needed to elucidate shared and unique 3D structural features of these molecules which lead to their antigen targeting and cross-reactivity. We developed a new algorithm in the program Rosetta to model TCRs from sequence, and implemented this functionality in a web server, TCRmodel. This web server provides an easy to use interface, and models are generated quickly that users can investigate in the browser and download. Benchmarking of this method using a set of nonredundant recently released TCR crystal structures shows that models are accurate and compare favorably to models from another available modeling method. This server enables the community to obtain insights into TCRs of interest, and can be combined with methods to model and design TCR recognition of antigens. The TCRmodel server is available at: http://tcrmodel.ibbr.umd.edu/.

  2. Model-based quality assessment and base-calling for second-generation sequencing data.

    PubMed

    Bravo, Héctor Corrada; Irizarry, Rafael A

    2010-09-01

    Second-generation sequencing (sec-gen) technology can sequence millions of short fragments of DNA in parallel, making it capable of assembling complex genomes for a small fraction of the price and time of previous technologies. In fact, a recently formed international consortium, the 1000 Genomes Project, plans to fully sequence the genomes of approximately 1200 people. The prospect of comparative analysis at the sequence level of a large number of samples across multiple populations may be achieved within the next five years. These data present unprecedented challenges in statistical analysis. For instance, analysis operates on millions of short nucleotide sequences, or reads-strings of A,C,G, or T's, between 30 and 100 characters long-which are the result of complex processing of noisy continuous fluorescence intensity measurements known as base-calling. The complexity of the base-calling discretization process results in reads of widely varying quality within and across sequence samples. This variation in processing quality results in infrequent but systematic errors that we have found to mislead downstream analysis of the discretized sequence read data. For instance, a central goal of the 1000 Genomes Project is to quantify across-sample variation at the single nucleotide level. At this resolution, small error rates in sequencing prove significant, especially for rare variants. Sec-gen sequencing is a relatively new technology for which potential biases and sources of obscuring variation are not yet fully understood. Therefore, modeling and quantifying the uncertainty inherent in the generation of sequence reads is of utmost importance. In this article, we present a simple model to capture uncertainty arising in the base-calling procedure of the Illumina/Solexa GA platform. Model parameters have a straightforward interpretation in terms of the chemistry of base-calling allowing for informative and easily interpretable metrics that capture the variability in

  3. The 2016 Mihoub (north-central Algeria) earthquake sequence: Seismological and tectonic aspects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khelif, M. F.; Yelles-Chaouche, A.; Benaissa, Z.; Semmane, F.; Beldjoudi, H.; Haned, A.; Issaadi, A.; Chami, A.; Chimouni, R.; Harbi, A.; Maouche, S.; Dabbouz, G.; Aidi, C.; Kherroubi, A.

    2018-06-01

    On 28 May 2016 at 23:54 (UTC), an Mw5.4 earthquake occurred in Mihoub village, Algeria, 60 km southeast of Algiers. This earthquake was the largest event in a sequence recorded from 10 April to 15 July 2016. In addition to the permanent national network, a temporary network was installed in the epicentral region after this shock. Recorded event locations allow us to give a general overview of the sequence and reveal the existence of two main fault segments. The first segment, on which the first event in the sequence was located, is near-vertical and trends E-W. The second fault plane, on which the largest event of the sequence was located, dips to the southeast and strikes NE-SW. A total of 46 well-constrained focal mechanisms were calculated. The events located on the E-W-striking fault segment show mainly right-lateral strike-slip (strike N70°E, dip 77° to the SSE, rake 150°). The events located on the NE-SW-striking segment show mainly reverse faulting (strike N60°E, dip 70° to the SE, rake 130°). We calculated the static stress change caused by the first event (Md4.9) of the sequence; the result shows that the fault plane of the largest event in the sequence (Mw5.4) and most of the aftershocks occurred within an area of increased Coulomb stress. Moreover, using the focal mechanisms calculated in this work, we estimated the orientations of the main axes of the local stress tensor ellipsoid. The results confirm previous findings that the general stress field in this area shows orientations aligned NNW-SSE to NW-SE. The 2016 Mihoub earthquake sequence study thus improves our understanding of seismic hazard in north-central Algeria.

  4. Structured prediction models for RNN based sequence labeling in clinical text.

    PubMed

    Jagannatha, Abhyuday N; Yu, Hong

    2016-11-01

    Sequence labeling is a widely used method for named entity recognition and information extraction from unstructured natural language data. In clinical domain one major application of sequence labeling involves extraction of medical entities such as medication, indication, and side-effects from Electronic Health Record narratives. Sequence labeling in this domain, presents its own set of challenges and objectives. In this work we experimented with various CRF based structured learning models with Recurrent Neural Networks. We extend the previously studied LSTM-CRF models with explicit modeling of pairwise potentials. We also propose an approximate version of skip-chain CRF inference with RNN potentials. We use these methodologies for structured prediction in order to improve the exact phrase detection of various medical entities.

  5. Structured prediction models for RNN based sequence labeling in clinical text

    PubMed Central

    Jagannatha, Abhyuday N; Yu, Hong

    2016-01-01

    Sequence labeling is a widely used method for named entity recognition and information extraction from unstructured natural language data. In clinical domain one major application of sequence labeling involves extraction of medical entities such as medication, indication, and side-effects from Electronic Health Record narratives. Sequence labeling in this domain, presents its own set of challenges and objectives. In this work we experimented with various CRF based structured learning models with Recurrent Neural Networks. We extend the previously studied LSTM-CRF models with explicit modeling of pairwise potentials. We also propose an approximate version of skip-chain CRF inference with RNN potentials. We use these methodologies1 for structured prediction in order to improve the exact phrase detection of various medical entities. PMID:28004040

  6. Aftershocks associated with impaired health caused by the great East Japan disaster among youth across Japan: a national cross-sectional survey.

    PubMed

    Sugimoto, Takashi; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Miyamoto, Yuki

    2013-12-20

    The Great East Japan earthquake, subsequent tsunamis and the Fukushima nuclear incident had a tremendous impact on Japanese society. Although small-scale surveys have been conducted in highly affected areas, few have elucidated the disaster's effect on health from national perspective, which is necessary to prepare national policy and response. The aim of the present study was to describe prefecture-level health status and investigate associations with number of aftershocks, seismic intensity, a closer geographical location to the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, or higher reported radiation dose in each prefecture even after adjusting for individual socioeconomic factors, by utilizing individual-level data acquired from a national cross-sectional Internet survey as well as officially reported prefecture-level data. A Japanese government research institute obtained 12,000 participants by quota sampling and 7335 participants were eligible for the analysis in an age range between 17 and 27 years old. We calculated the percentage of people with decreased subjective health in each prefecture after the earthquake. Variability introduced by a small sample size for some prefectures was smoothed using empirical Bayes estimation with a random-intercept logistic model, with and without demographic factors. Multilevel logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for change of subjective health associated with prefecture-level and individual-level factors. Adjusted empirical Bayes estimates were higher for respondents commuting in the northeast region (Iwate 14%, Miyagi 19%, and Fukushima 28%), which faces the Pacific Ocean, while the values for Akita (10%) and Yamagata (8%) prefectures, which do not face the Pacific Ocean, were lower than those of Tokyo (12%). The values from the central to the western region were clearly lower. The number of aftershocks was coherently associated with decreased health (OR 1.05 per 100 times, 95% CI 1.04-1.06; P<.001

  7. Precursory slow-slip loaded the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borghi, A.; Aoudia, A.; Javed, F.; Barzaghi, R.

    2016-05-01

    Slow-slip events (SSEs) are common at subduction zone faults where large mega earthquakes occur. We report here that one of the best-recorded moderate size continental earthquake, the 2009 April 6 moment magnitude (Mw) 6.3 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake, was preceded by a 5.9 Mw SSE that originated from the decollement beneath the reactivated normal faulting system. The SSE is identified from a rigorous analysis of continuous GPS stations and occurred on the 12 February and lasted for almost two weeks. It coincided with a burst in the foreshock activity with small repeating earthquakes migrating towards the main-shock hypocentre as well as with a change in the elastic properties of rocks in the fault region. The SSE has caused substantial stress loading at seismogenic depths where the magnitude 4.0 foreshock and Mw 6.3 main shock nucleated. This stress loading is also spatially correlated with the lateral extent of the aftershock sequence.

  8. Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: A demonstration of time-dependent stress transfer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toda, S.; Stein, R.

    2003-01-01

    Two M ??? 6 well-recorded strike-slip earthquakes struck just 4 km and 48 days apart in Kagoshima prefecture, Japan, in 1997, providing an opportunity to study earthquake interaction. Aftershocks are abundant where the Coulomb stress is calculated to have been increased by the first event, and they abruptly stop where the stress is dropped by the second event. This ability of the main shocks to toggle seismicity on and off argues that static stress changes play a major role in exciting aftershocks, whereas the dynamic Coulomb stresses, which should only promote seismicity, appear to play a secondary role. If true, the net stress changes from a sequence of earthquakes might be expected to govern the subsequent seismicity distribution. However, adding the stress changes from the two Kagoshima events does not fully capture the ensuing seismicity, such as its rate change, temporal decay, or migration away from the ends of the ruptures. We therefore implement a stress transfer model that incorporates rate/state friction, in which seismicity is treated as a sequence of independent nucleation events that are dependent on the fault slip, slip rate, and elapsed time since the last event. The model reproduces the temporal response of seismicity to successive stress changes, including toggling, decay, and aftershock migration. Nevertheless, the match of observed to predicted seismicity is quite imperfect, due perhaps to inadequate knowledge of several model parameters. However, to demonstrate the potential of this approach, we build a probabilistic forecast of larger earthquakes on the expected rate of small aftershocks, taking advantage of the large statistical sample the small shocks afford. Not surprisingly, such probabilities are highly time- and location-dependent: During the first decade after the main shocks, the seismicity rate and the chance of successive large shocks are about an order of magnitude higher than the background rate and are concentrated exclusively in

  9. Mesoscopic modeling of DNA denaturation rates: Sequence dependence and experimental comparison

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Dahlen, Oda, E-mail: oda.dahlen@ntnu.no; Erp, Titus S. van, E-mail: titus.van.erp@ntnu.no

    Using rare event simulation techniques, we calculated DNA denaturation rate constants for a range of sequences and temperatures for the Peyrard-Bishop-Dauxois (PBD) model with two different parameter sets. We studied a larger variety of sequences compared to previous studies that only consider DNA homopolymers and DNA sequences containing an equal amount of weak AT- and strong GC-base pairs. Our results show that, contrary to previous findings, an even distribution of the strong GC-base pairs does not always result in the fastest possible denaturation. In addition, we applied an adaptation of the PBD model to study hairpin denaturation for which experimentalmore » data are available. This is the first quantitative study in which dynamical results from the mesoscopic PBD model have been compared with experiments. Our results show that present parameterized models, although giving good results regarding thermodynamic properties, overestimate denaturation rates by orders of magnitude. We believe that our dynamical approach is, therefore, an important tool for verifying DNA models and for developing next generation models that have higher predictive power than present ones.« less

  10. Sequence-dependent modelling of local DNA bending phenomena: curvature prediction and vibrational analysis.

    PubMed

    Vlahovicek, K; Munteanu, M G; Pongor, S

    1999-01-01

    Bending is a local conformational micropolymorphism of DNA in which the original B-DNA structure is only distorted but not extensively modified. Bending can be predicted by simple static geometry models as well as by a recently developed elastic model that incorporate sequence dependent anisotropic bendability (SDAB). The SDAB model qualitatively explains phenomena including affinity of protein binding, kinking, as well as sequence-dependent vibrational properties of DNA. The vibrational properties of DNA segments can be studied by finite element analysis of a model subjected to an initial bending moment. The frequency spectrum is obtained by applying Fourier analysis to the displacement values in the time domain. This analysis shows that the spectrum of the bending vibrations quite sensitively depends on the sequence, for example the spectrum of a curved sequence is characteristically different from the spectrum of straight sequence motifs of identical basepair composition. Curvature distributions are genome-specific, and pronounced differences are found between protein-coding and regulatory regions, respectively, that is, sites of extreme curvature and/or bendability are less frequent in protein-coding regions. A WWW server is set up for the prediction of curvature and generation of 3D models from DNA sequences (http:@www.icgeb.trieste.it/dna).

  11. Dependence of the aftershock flow on the main shock magnitude

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guglielmi, A. V.; Zavyalov, A. D.; Zotov, O. D.; Lavrov, I. P.

    2017-01-01

    Previously, we predicted and then observed in practice the property of aftershocks which consists in the statistically regular clustering of events in time during the first hours after the main shock. The characteristic quasi-period of clustering is three hours. This property is associated with the cumulative action of the surface waves converging to the epicenter, whereas the quasi-period is mainly determined by the time delay of the round-the-world seismic echo. The quasi-period varies from case to case. In the attempt to find the cause of this variability, we have statistically explored the probable dependence of quasi-period on the magnitude of the main shock. In this paper, we present the corresponding result of analyzing global seismicity from the USGS/NEIC earthquake catalog. We succeeded in finding a significant reduction in the quasiperiod of the strong earthquakes clustering with growth in the magnitude of the main shock. We suggest the interpretation of this regularity from the standpoint of the phenomenological theory of explosive instability. It is noted that the phenomenon of explosive instability is fairly common in the geophysical media. The examples of explosive instability in the radiation belt and magnetospheric tail are presented. The search for the parallels in the evolution of explosive instability in the lithosphere and magnetosphere of the Earth will enrich both the physics of the earthquakes and physics of the magnetospheric pulsations.

  12. Dual Megathrust Slip Behaviors of the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, L.; Huang, H.; Burgmann, R.; Ampuero, J. P.; Strader, A. E.

    2014-12-01

    The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A M 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of Northern Chile. This event was preceded by a 2-week-long foreshock sequence including a M 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes are found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock area, suggesting a large scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence time of repeating earthquakes highlights the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while other repeaters occurred both before and after the mainshock in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatial and temporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrate the essential role of propagating aseismic slip in leading up to the mainshock and aftershock activities. Various finite fault models indicate that the coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show slow initiation with low amplitude moment rate at low frequency (< 0.1 Hz), while back-projection shows a steady initiation at high frequency (> 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the high-frequency rupture remains within an area of low gravity anomaly, suggesting possible upper-crustal structures that promote high-frequency generation. Back-projection also shows an episode of reverse rupture propagation which suggests a delayed failure of asperities in

  13. Fluid‐driven seismicity response of the Rinconada fault near Paso Robles, California, to the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2012-01-01

    The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused significant damage in the city of Paso Robles and a persistent cluster of aftershocks close to Paso Robles near the Rinconada fault. Given the importance of secondary aftershock triggering in sequences of large events, a concern is whether this cluster of events could trigger another damaging earthquake near Paso Robles. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is fit to the Rinconada seismicity, and multiple realizations indicate a 0.36% probability of at least one M≥6.0 earthquake during the next 30 years. However, this probability estimate is only as good as the projection into the future of the ETAS model. There is evidence that the seismicity may be influenced by fluid pressure changes, which cannot be forecasted using ETAS. The strongest evidence for fluids is the delay between the San Simeon mainshock and a high rate of seismicity in mid to late 2004. This delay can be explained as having been caused by a pore pressure decrease due to an undrained response to the coseismic dilatation, followed by increased pore pressure during the return to equilibrium. Seismicity migration along the fault also suggests fluid involvement, although the migration is too slow to be consistent with pore pressure diffusion. All other evidence, including focal mechanisms and b‐value, is consistent with tectonic earthquakes. This suggests a model where the role of fluid pressure changes is limited to the first seven months, while the fluid pressure equilibrates. The ETAS modeling adequately fits the events after July 2004 when the pore pressure stabilizes. The ETAS models imply that while the probability of a damaging earthquake on the Rinconada fault has approximately doubled due to the San Simeon earthquake, the absolute probability remains low.

  14. Seismotectonics of Marasesti region (Eastern Romania) revealed by earthquake relocations and moment tensor determinations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borleanu, Felix; Rogozea, Maria; Placinta, Anca; Popa, Mihaela; Radulian, Mircea

    2017-04-01

    A large seismic sequence occurred between 22 November 2014 and 31 January 2015 in the Foredeep area of the South-Eastern Carpathians at a distance of about 10 km north-east relative to Marasesti city. The sequence was located in the lower crust, close to 40 km depth. Although the moment magnitude of the largest event was 5.4 according to Romplus (Romanian earthquakes catalog) the largest aftershock did not exceed 4.0 (Mw) and most of the aftershocks were weak (magnitude below 3). From a total of 230 well-located events, we relocated 178 using more than 17000 P and S differential travel times. The results show a NW-SE alignment consistent with the focal mechanism solution computed through the broadband seismic waveforms inversion. An important aspect of this sequence is the distribution in time of the seismic events, which reveals an aftershocks migration with an average velocity of about 3 km/day. This seismicity behavior might be due to the presence of the fluids. We interpret all these features in terms of the seismotectonics of the region.

  15. A Model of BGA Thermal Fatigue Life Prediction Considering Load Sequence Effects

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Weiwei; Li, Yaqiu; Sun, Yufeng; Mosleh, Ali

    2016-01-01

    Accurate testing history data is necessary for all fatigue life prediction approaches, but such data is always deficient especially for the microelectronic devices. Additionally, the sequence of the individual load cycle plays an important role in physical fatigue damage. However, most of the existing models based on the linear damage accumulation rule ignore the sequence effects. This paper proposes a thermal fatigue life prediction model for ball grid array (BGA) packages to take into consideration the load sequence effects. For the purpose of improving the availability and accessibility of testing data, a new failure criterion is discussed and verified by simulation and experimentation. The consequences for the fatigue underlying sequence load conditions are shown. PMID:28773980

  16. (Multi)fractality of Earthquakes by use of Wavelet Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enescu, B.; Ito, K.; Struzik, Z. R.

    2002-12-01

    The fractal character of earthquakes' occurrence, in time, space or energy, has by now been established beyond doubt and is in agreement with modern models of seismicity. Moreover, the cascade-like generation process of earthquakes -with one "main" shock followed by many aftershocks, having their own aftershocks- may well be described through multifractal analysis, well suited for dealing with such multiplicative processes. The (multi)fractal character of seismicity has been analysed so far by using traditional techniques, like the box-counting and correlation function algorithms. This work introduces a new approach for characterising the multifractal patterns of seismicity. The use of wavelet analysis, in particular of the wavelet transform modulus maxima, to multifractal analysis was pioneered by Arneodo et al. (1991, 1995) and applied successfully in diverse fields, such as the study of turbulence, the DNA sequences or the heart rate dynamics. The wavelets act like a microscope, revealing details about the analysed data at different times and scales. We introduce and perform such an analysis on the occurrence time of earthquakes and show its advantages. In particular, we analyse shallow seismicity, characterised by a high aftershock "productivity", as well as intermediate and deep seismic activity, known for its scarcity of aftershocks. We examine as well declustered (aftershocks removed) versions of seismic catalogues. Our preliminary results show some degree of multifractality for the undeclustered, shallow seismicity. On the other hand, at large scales, we detect a monofractal scaling behaviour, clearly put in evidence for the declustered, shallow seismic activity. Moreover, some of the declustered sequences show a long-range dependent (LRD) behaviour, characterised by a Hurst exponent, H > 0.5, in contrast with the memory-less, Poissonian model. We demonstrate that the LRD is a genuine characteristic and is not an effect of the time series probability

  17. Integrated Geophysical Characteristics of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, M. W.; Yeck, W. L.; Nealy, J. L.; Hayes, G. P.; Barnhart, W. D.; Benz, H.; Furlong, K. P.

    2015-12-01

    On September 16th, 2015, an Mw 8.3 earthquake (USGS moment magnitude) ruptured offshore of central Chile, 50 km west of the city of Illapel and 200 km north of Santiago. The earthquake occurred just north of where the Juan Fernandez Ridge enters the subduction zone. In this study, we integrate multiple seismic and geodetic datasets, including multiple-event earthquake relocations; moment tensors of the Illapel mainshock, aftershocks, and prior regional seismicity; finite fault models (FFMs) of the mainshock rupture; subduction zone geometry; Coulomb stress transfer calculations; and co-seismic GPS offsets and InSAR images. These datasets allow us to (a) assess the context of the Illapel earthquake sequence with respect to historical seismicity in central Chile; (b) constrain the relationship between subduction geometry and the kinematic characteristics of the earthquake sequence; and (c) understand the distribution of aftershocks with respect to the rupture zone. Double source W-phase moment tensor analysis indicates the Illapel mainshock rupture began as a smaller Mw ~7.2 thrusting event before growing into a great-sized Mw 8.3 earthquake. Relocated aftershock seismicity is concentrated around the main region of slip, and few aftershocks occur on the megathrust shallower than ~15 km, despite the FFM indicating slip near the trench. This distribution is consistent with the aftershock behavior following the 2010 Maule and 2014 Iquique earthquakes: aftershocks primarily surround the rupture zones and are largely absent from regions of greatest slip. However, in contrast to the recent 2014 Iquique and 2010 Maule events, which ruptured in regions of the Chilean subduction zone that had not had large events in over a century, this earthquake occurred in a section of the subduction zone that hosted a large earthquake as recently as 1943, as well as earlier significant events in 1880 and 1822. At this section of the subduction zone, in addition to the impinging Juan

  18. Two-Stage orders sequencing system for mixed-model assembly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zemczak, M.; Skolud, B.; Krenczyk, D.

    2015-11-01

    In the paper, the authors focus on the NP-hard problem of orders sequencing, formulated similarly to Car Sequencing Problem (CSP). The object of the research is the assembly line in an automotive industry company, on which few different models of products, each in a certain number of versions, are assembled on the shared resources, set in a line. Such production type is usually determined as a mixed-model production, and arose from the necessity of manufacturing customized products on the basis of very specific orders from single clients. The producers are nowadays obliged to provide each client the possibility to determine a huge amount of the features of the product they are willing to buy, as the competition in the automotive market is large. Due to the previously mentioned nature of the problem (NP-hard), in the given time period only satisfactory solutions are sought, as the optimal solution method has not yet been found. Most of the researchers that implemented inaccurate methods (e.g. evolutionary algorithms) to solving sequencing problems dropped the research after testing phase, as they were not able to obtain reproducible results, and met problems while determining the quality of the received solutions. Therefore a new approach to solving the problem, presented in this paper as a sequencing system is being developed. The sequencing system consists of a set of determined rules, implemented into computer environment. The system itself works in two stages. First of them is connected with the determination of a place in the storage buffer to which certain production orders should be sent. In the second stage of functioning, precise sets of sequences are determined and evaluated for certain parts of the storage buffer under certain criteria.

  19. Machine-Learning Inspired Seismic Phase Detection for Aftershocks of the 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, L.; Li, Z.; Li, C.; Wang, B.; Chen, Z.; McClellan, J. H.; Peng, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Spatial-temporal evolution of aftershocks is important for illumination of earthquake physics and for rapid response of devastative earthquakes. To improve aftershock catalogs of the 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, China, Alibaba cloud and China Earthquake Administration jointly launched a seismological contest in May 2017 [Fang et al., 2017]. This abstract describes how we handle this problem in this competition. We first used Short-Term Average/Long-Term Average (STA/LTA) and Kurtosis function to obtain over 55000 candidate phase picks (P or S). Based on Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR), about 40000 phases (P or S) are selected. So far, these 40000 phases have a hit rate of 40% among the manually picks. The causes include that 1) there exist false picks (neither P nor S); 2) some P and S arrivals are mis-labeled. To improve our results, we correlate the 40000 phases over continuous waveforms to obtain the phases missed by during the first pass. This results in 120,000 events. After constructing an affinity matrix based on the cross-correlation for newly detected phases, subspace clustering methods [Vidal 2011] are applied to group those phases into separated subspaces. Initial results show good agreement between empirical and clustered labels of P phases. Half of the empirical S phases are clustered into the P phase cluster. This may be a combined effect of 1) mislabeling isolated P phases to S phases and 2) clustering errors due to a small incomplete sample pool. Phases that were falsely detected in the initial results can be also teased out. To better characterize P and S phases, our next step is to apply subspace clustering methods directly to the waveforms, instead of using the cross-correlation coefficients of detected phases. After that, supervised learning, e.g., a convolutional neural network, can be employed to improve the pick accuracy. Updated results will be presented at the meeting.

  20. Mathematical model and metaheuristics for simultaneous balancing and sequencing of a robotic mixed-model assembly line

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zixiang; Janardhanan, Mukund Nilakantan; Tang, Qiuhua; Nielsen, Peter

    2018-05-01

    This article presents the first method to simultaneously balance and sequence robotic mixed-model assembly lines (RMALB/S), which involves three sub-problems: task assignment, model sequencing and robot allocation. A new mixed-integer programming model is developed to minimize makespan and, using CPLEX solver, small-size problems are solved for optimality. Two metaheuristics, the restarted simulated annealing algorithm and co-evolutionary algorithm, are developed and improved to address this NP-hard problem. The restarted simulated annealing method replaces the current temperature with a new temperature to restart the search process. The co-evolutionary method uses a restart mechanism to generate a new population by modifying several vectors simultaneously. The proposed algorithms are tested on a set of benchmark problems and compared with five other high-performing metaheuristics. The proposed algorithms outperform their original editions and the benchmarked methods. The proposed algorithms are able to solve the balancing and sequencing problem of a robotic mixed-model assembly line effectively and efficiently.

  1. A Probabilistic Model of Local Sequence Alignment That Simplifies Statistical Significance Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Eddy, Sean R.

    2008-01-01

    Sequence database searches require accurate estimation of the statistical significance of scores. Optimal local sequence alignment scores follow Gumbel distributions, but determining an important parameter of the distribution (λ) requires time-consuming computational simulation. Moreover, optimal alignment scores are less powerful than probabilistic scores that integrate over alignment uncertainty (“Forward” scores), but the expected distribution of Forward scores remains unknown. Here, I conjecture that both expected score distributions have simple, predictable forms when full probabilistic modeling methods are used. For a probabilistic model of local sequence alignment, optimal alignment bit scores (“Viterbi” scores) are Gumbel-distributed with constant λ = log 2, and the high scoring tail of Forward scores is exponential with the same constant λ. Simulation studies support these conjectures over a wide range of profile/sequence comparisons, using 9,318 profile-hidden Markov models from the Pfam database. This enables efficient and accurate determination of expectation values (E-values) for both Viterbi and Forward scores for probabilistic local alignments. PMID:18516236

  2. Modeling bias and variation in the stochastic processes of small RNA sequencing

    PubMed Central

    Etheridge, Alton; Sakhanenko, Nikita; Galas, David

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The use of RNA-seq as the preferred method for the discovery and validation of small RNA biomarkers has been hindered by high quantitative variability and biased sequence counts. In this paper we develop a statistical model for sequence counts that accounts for ligase bias and stochastic variation in sequence counts. This model implies a linear quadratic relation between the mean and variance of sequence counts. Using a large number of sequencing datasets, we demonstrate how one can use the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) distributional regression framework to calculate and apply empirical correction factors for ligase bias. Bias correction could remove more than 40% of the bias for miRNAs. Empirical bias correction factors appear to be nearly constant over at least one and up to four orders of magnitude of total RNA input and independent of sample composition. Using synthetic mixes of known composition, we show that the GAMLSS approach can analyze differential expression with greater accuracy, higher sensitivity and specificity than six existing algorithms (DESeq2, edgeR, EBSeq, limma, DSS, voom) for the analysis of small RNA-seq data. PMID:28369495

  3. Search for repeating events at the plate interface in the seismic sequence of the 2014 Mw8.1 Iquique earthquake, Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kummerow, Joern; Asch, Guenter; Sens-Schönfelder, Christoph; Schurr, Bernd; Tilmann, Frederik; Shapiro, Serge A.

    2017-04-01

    The 2014 Mw8.1 Iquique earthquake occurred along a segment of the northern Chile- southern Peru seismic gap which had not ruptured for more than 100 years. A specific feature of this event is the observation of prominent foreshock clusters with successively increasing seismic moment releases starting several months before the main shock (e.g., Schurr et al., 2014). The entire seismic sequence, including also the aftershock seismicity, was monitored exceptionally well by the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC). Here, we present results from a systematic, long-term search for repeating seismic events along the plate interface in the source region of the 1 April 2014 (Mw8.1) Iquique main shock. Repeating earthquakes are widely assumed to indicate recurrent ruptures on the same fault patch and to accommodate aseismic slip in the creeping portions around the seismic patch. According to this concept, the analysis of repeating events and of their temporal behaviour provides a tool to estimate the amount of creep. We use the IPOC and two additional local seismic networks and select recorded waveforms of several hundreds of located earthquakes within the foreshock and aftershock series as template events. Waveforms are windowed around the P and S phases and bandpass-filtered for different frequency bands. Window starts are defined by manually revised P onset times. We then run a newly implemented correlation detector on the resampled, continuous seismic data to find highly similar waveforms for each template event. Repeating earthquakes are finally identified by a combination of estimated source dimensions, high waveform similarity and precise relative relocations of the events within each multiplet group. The analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of the detected repeating earthquake sequences allows to test the proposed idea of progressive unlocking of the plate boundary before the Iquique main shock.

  4. The 12th June 2017 Mw = 6.3 Lesvos earthquake from detailed seismological observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadimitriou, P.; Kassaras, I.; Kaviris, G.; Tselentis, G.-A.; Voulgaris, N.; Lekkas, E.; Chouliaras, G.; Evangelidis, C.; Pavlou, K.; Kapetanidis, V.; Karakonstantis, A.; Kazantzidou-Firtinidou, D.; Fountoulakis, I.; Millas, C.; Spingos, I.; Aspiotis, T.; Moumoulidou, A.; Skourtsos, E.; Antoniou, V.; Andreadakis, E.; Mavroulis, S.; Kleanthi, M.

    2018-04-01

    A major earthquake (Mwö=ö6.3) occurred on the 12th of June 2017 (12:28 GMT) offshore, south of the SE coast of Lesvos Island, at a depth of 13ökm, in an area characterized by normal faulting with an important strike-slip component in certain cases. Over 900 events of the sequence between 12 and 30 June 2017 were manually analyzed and located, employing an optimized local velocity model. Double-difference relocation revealed seven spatially separated groups of events, forming two linear branches, roughly aligned N130°E, compatible with the strike of known mapped faults along the southern coast of Lesvos Island. Spatiotemporal analysis indicated gradual migration of seismicity towards NW and SE from the margins of the main rupture, while a strong secondary sequence at a separate fault patch SE of the mainshock, oriented NW-SE, was triggered by the largest aftershock (Mwö=ö5.2) that occurred on 17 June. The focal mechanisms of the mainshock (φö=ö122°, δö=ö40° and λö=ö-83°) and of the major aftershocks were determined using regional moment tensor inversion. In most cases normal faulting was revealed with the fault plane oriented in a NW-SE direction, dipping SW, with the exception of the largest aftershock that was characterized by strike-slip faulting. Stress inversion revealed a complex stress field south of Lesvos, related both to normal, in an approximate E-W direction, and strike-slip faulting. All aftershocks outside the main rupture, where gradual seismicity migration was observed, are located within the positive lobes of static stress transfer determined by applying the Coulomb criterion for the mainshock. Stress loading on optimal faults under a strike-slip regime explains the occurrence of the largest aftershock and the seismicity that was triggered at the eastern patch of the rupture zone.

  5. Båth's law and its relation to the tectonic environment: A case study for earthquakes in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez-Pérez, Q.; Zúñiga, F. R.

    2016-09-01

    We studied 66 mainshocks and their largest aftershocks in the Mexican subduction zone and in the Gulf of California with magnitudes in the range of 5.2 < Mw < 8.0 from 1932 to 2015. Three different types of earthquakes were analyzed: shallow thrust interplate, intermediate-depth inslab and transform strike-slip earthquakes (26, 19 and 21 events, respectively). We focus on observational aspects of the Båth's law. By studying the magnitude difference, energy ratios and energy partitioning of the mainshock-largest aftershock sequences, we analyze the physics of the mainshock-largest aftershock relationship (Båth's law). The partitioning of energy during a mainshock-aftershock sequence shows that about 96-97% of the energy dissipated in a sequence is associated with the mainshock and the rest is due to aftershocks. Our results for radiated seismic energy and energy-to-moment ratio are partially in agreement with worldwide studies supporting the observation of mechanism dependence of radiated seismic energy. The statistical tests indicate that the only significant difference is for shallow thrust and strike-slip events for these parameters. The statistical comparison of stress drop of shallow thrust versus that of inslab events shows a strongly significant difference with a confidence better than 99%. The comparison of stress drop of shallow thrust events with that of strike-slip events, also indicates a strongly significant difference. We see no dependence of stress drop with magnitude, which is strong evidence of earthquake self-similarity. We do not observe a systematic depth dependence of stress drop. The results also reveal differences in the earthquake rupture among the events. The magnitude difference between the mainshock and the largest aftershock for inslab events is larger than interplate and strike-slip events suggesting focal mechanism dependence of Båth's law. For the case of this parameter, only that for inslab and strike-slip events present a

  6. Sequence-based prediction of protein-binding sites in DNA: comparative study of two SVM models.

    PubMed

    Park, Byungkyu; Im, Jinyong; Tuvshinjargal, Narankhuu; Lee, Wook; Han, Kyungsook

    2014-11-01

    As many structures of protein-DNA complexes have been known in the past years, several computational methods have been developed to predict DNA-binding sites in proteins. However, its inverse problem (i.e., predicting protein-binding sites in DNA) has received much less attention. One of the reasons is that the differences between the interaction propensities of nucleotides are much smaller than those between amino acids. Another reason is that DNA exhibits less diverse sequence patterns than protein. Therefore, predicting protein-binding DNA nucleotides is much harder than predicting DNA-binding amino acids. We computed the interaction propensity (IP) of nucleotide triplets with amino acids using an extensive dataset of protein-DNA complexes, and developed two support vector machine (SVM) models that predict protein-binding nucleotides from sequence data alone. One SVM model predicts protein-binding nucleotides using DNA sequence data alone, and the other SVM model predicts protein-binding nucleotides using both DNA and protein sequences. In a 10-fold cross-validation with 1519 DNA sequences, the SVM model that uses DNA sequence data only predicted protein-binding nucleotides with an accuracy of 67.0%, an F-measure of 67.1%, and a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.340. With an independent dataset of 181 DNAs that were not used in training, it achieved an accuracy of 66.2%, an F-measure 66.3% and a MCC of 0.324. Another SVM model that uses both DNA and protein sequences achieved an accuracy of 69.6%, an F-measure of 69.6%, and a MCC of 0.383 in a 10-fold cross-validation with 1519 DNA sequences and 859 protein sequences. With an independent dataset of 181 DNAs and 143 proteins, it showed an accuracy of 67.3%, an F-measure of 66.5% and a MCC of 0.329. Both in cross-validation and independent testing, the second SVM model that used both DNA and protein sequence data showed better performance than the first model that used DNA sequence data. To the best of

  7. Chapter D. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Aftershocks and Postseismic Effects

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reasenberg, Paul A.

    1997-01-01

    While the damaging effects of the earthquake represent a significant social setback and economic loss, the geophysical effects have produced a wealth of data that have provided important insights into the structure and mechanics of the San Andreas Fault system. Generally, the period after a large earthquake is vitally important to monitor. During this part of the seismic cycle, the primary fault and the surrounding faults, rock bodies, and crustal fluids rapidly readjust in response to the earthquake's sudden movement. Geophysical measurements made at this time can provide unique information about fundamental properties of the fault zone, including its state of stress and the geometry and frictional/rheological properties of the faults within it. Because postseismic readjustments are rapid compared with corresponding changes occurring in the preseismic period, the amount and rate of information that is available during the postseismic period is relatively high. From a geophysical viewpoint, the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in a section of the San Andreas fault zone that is surrounded by multiple and extensive geophysical monitoring networks has produced nothing less than a scientific bonanza. The reports assembled in this chapter collectively examine available geophysical observations made before and after the earthquake and model the earthquake's principal postseismic effects. The chapter covers four broad categories of postseismic effect: (1) aftershocks; (2) postseismic fault movements; (3) postseismic surface deformation; and (4) changes in electrical conductivity and crustal fluids.

  8. Coulomb Stress Change and Seismic Hazard of Rift Zones in Southern Tibet after the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal Earthquake and Its Mw7.3 Aftershock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Z.; Zha, X.; Lu, Z.

    2015-12-01

    In southern Tibet (30~34N, 80~95E), many north-trending rifts, such as Yadong-Gulu and Lunggar rifts, are characterized by internally drained graben or half-graben basins bounded by active normal faults. Some developed rifts have become a portion of important transportation lines in Tibet, China. Since 1976, eighty-seven >Mw5.0 earthquakes have happened in the rift regions, and fifty-five events have normal faulting focal mechanisms according to the GCMT catalog. These rifts and normal faults are associated with both the EW-trending extension of the southern Tibet and the convergence between Indian and Tibet. The 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal great earthquake and its Mw7.3 aftershock occurred at the main Himalayan Thrust zone and caused tremendous damages in Kathmandu region. Those earthquakes will lead to significant viscoelastic deformation and stress changes in the southern Tibet in the future. To evaluate the seismic hazard in the active rift regions in southern Tibet, we modeled the slip distribution of the 2015 Nepal great earthquakes using the InSAR displacement field from the ALOS-2 satellite SAR data, and calculated the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) on these active normal faults in the rift zones. Because the estimated CFS depends on the geometrical parameters of receiver faults, it is necessary to get the accurate fault parameters in the rift zones. Some historical earthquakes have been studied using the field data, teleseismic data and InSAR observations, but results are in not agreement with each other. In this study, we revaluated the geometrical parameters of seismogenic faults occurred in the rift zones using some high-quality coseismic InSAR observations and teleseismic body-wave data. Finally, we will evaluate the seismic hazard in the rift zones according to the value of the estimated CFS and aftershock distribution.

  9. Multi-Array Back-Projections of The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake With Physics-Based Aftershock Calibrations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, L.; Zhang, A.; Yagi, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal-Gorkha earthquake with casualties of over 9,000 people is the most devastating disaster to strike Nepal since the 1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake. Its rupture process is well imaged by the teleseismic MUSIC back-projections (BP). Here, we perform independent back-projections of high-frequency recordings (0.5-2 Hz) from the Australian seismic network (AU), the North America network (NA) and the European seismic network (EU), located in complementary orientations. Our results of all three arrays show unilateral linear rupture path to the east of the hypocenter. But the propagating directions and the inferred rupture speeds differ significantly among different arrays. To understand the spatial uncertainties of the BP analysis, we image four moderate-size (M5~6) aftershocks based on the timing correction derived from the alignment of the initial P-wave of the mainshock. We find that the apparent source locations inferred from BP are systematically biased along the source-array orientation, which can be explained by the uncertainty of the 3D velocity structure deviated from the 1D reference model (e.g. IASP91). We introduced a slowness error term in travel time as a first-order calibration that successfully mitigates the source location discrepancies of different arrays. The calibrated BP results of three arrays are mutually consistent and reveal a unilateral rupture propagating eastward at a speed of 2.7 km/s along the down-dip edge of the locked Himalaya thrust zone over ~ 150 km, in agreement with a narrow slip distribution inferred from finite source inversions.

  10. Discounting of reward sequences: a test of competing formal models of hyperbolic discounting

    PubMed Central

    Zarr, Noah; Alexander, William H.; Brown, Joshua W.

    2014-01-01

    Humans are known to discount future rewards hyperbolically in time. Nevertheless, a formal recursive model of hyperbolic discounting has been elusive until recently, with the introduction of the hyperbolically discounted temporal difference (HDTD) model. Prior to that, models of learning (especially reinforcement learning) have relied on exponential discounting, which generally provides poorer fits to behavioral data. Recently, it has been shown that hyperbolic discounting can also be approximated by a summed distribution of exponentially discounted values, instantiated in the μAgents model. The HDTD model and the μAgents model differ in one key respect, namely how they treat sequences of rewards. The μAgents model is a particular implementation of a Parallel discounting model, which values sequences based on the summed value of the individual rewards whereas the HDTD model contains a non-linear interaction. To discriminate among these models, we observed how subjects discounted a sequence of three rewards, and then we tested how well each candidate model fit the subject data. The results show that the Parallel model generally provides a better fit to the human data. PMID:24639662

  11. An Activation-Based Model of Routine Sequence Errors

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-04-01

    part of the ACT-R frame- work (e.g., Anderson, 1983), we adopt a newer, richer no- tion of priming as part of our approach ( Harrison & Trafton, 2010...2014). Other models of routine sequence errors, such as the in- teractive activation network ( IAN ) model (Cooper & Shal- lice, 2006) and the simple...error patterns that results from an interface layout shift. The ideas behind our expanded priming approach, however, could apply to IAN , which uses

  12. New Powerful Statistics for Alignment-free Sequence Comparison Under a Pattern Transfer Model

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xuemei; Wan, Lin; Li, Jing; Reinert, Gesine; Waterman, Michael S.; Sun, Fengzhu

    2011-01-01

    Alignment-free sequence comparison is widely used for comparing gene regulatory regions and for identifying horizontally transferred genes. Recent studies on the power of a widely used alignment-free comparison statistic D2 and its variants D2∗ and D2s showed that their power approximates a limit smaller than 1 as the sequence length tends to infinity under a pattern transfer model. We develop new alignment-free statistics based on D2, D2∗ and D2s by comparing local sequence pairs and then summing over all the local sequence pairs of certain length. We show that the new statistics are much more powerful than the corresponding statistics and the power tends to 1 as the sequence length tends to infinity under the pattern transfer model. PMID:21723298

  13. The August 2011 Virginia and Colorado Earthquake Sequences: Does Stress Drop Depend on Strain Rate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abercrombie, R. E.; Viegas, G.

    2011-12-01

    Our preliminary analysis of the August 2011 Virginia earthquake sequence finds the earthquakes to have high stress drops, similar to those of recent earthquakes in NE USA, while those of the August 2011 Trinidad, Colorado, earthquakes are moderate - in between those typical of interplate (California) and the east coast. These earthquakes provide an unprecedented opportunity to study such source differences in detail, and hence improve our estimates of seismic hazard. Previously, the lack of well-recorded earthquakes in the eastern USA severely limited our resolution of the source processes and hence the expected ground accelerations. Our preliminary findings are consistent with the idea that earthquake faults strengthen during longer recurrence times and intraplate faults fail at higher stress (and produce higher ground accelerations) than their interplate counterparts. We use the empirical Green's function (EGF) method to calculate source parameters for the Virginia mainshock and three larger aftershocks, and for the Trinidad mainshock and two larger foreshocks using IRIS-available stations. We select time windows around the direct P and S waves at the closest stations and calculate spectral ratios and source time functions using the multi-taper spectral approach (eg. Viegas et al., JGR 2010). Our preliminary results show that the Virginia sequence has high stress drops (~100-200 MPa, using Madariaga (1976) model), and the Colorado sequence has moderate stress drops (~20 MPa). These numbers are consistent with previous work in the regions, for example the Au Sable Forks (2002) earthquake, and the 2010 Germantown (MD) earthquake. We also calculate the radiated seismic energy and find the energy/moment ratio to be high for the Virginia earthquakes, and moderate for the Colorado sequence. We observe no evidence of a breakdown in constant stress drop scaling in this limited number of earthquakes. We extend our analysis to a larger number of earthquakes and stations

  14. Distinct Element Method modelling of fold-related fractures in a multilayer sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaserer, Klemens; Schöpfer, Martin P. J.; Grasemann, Bernhard

    2017-04-01

    Natural fractures have a significant impact on the performance of hydrocarbon systems/reservoirs. In a multilayer sequence, both the fracture density within the individual layers and the type of fracture intersection with bedding contacts are key parameters controlling fluid pathways. In the present study the influence of layer stacking and interlayer friction on fracture density and connectivity within a folded sequence is systematically investigated using 2D Distinct Element Method modelling. Our numerical approach permits forward modelling of both fracture nucleation/propagation/arrest and (contemporaneous) frictional slip along bedding planes in a robust and mechanically sound manner. Folding of the multilayer sequence is achieved by enforcing constant curvature folding by means of a velocity boundary condition at the model base, while a constant overburden pressure is maintained at the model top. The modelling reveals that with high bedding plane friction the multilayer stack behaves mechanically as a single layer so that the neutral surface develops in centre of the sequence and fracture spacing is controlled by the total thickness of the folded sequence. In contrast, low bedding plane friction leads to decoupling of the individual layers (flexural slip folding) so that a neutral surface develops in the centre of each layer and fracture spacing is controlled by the thickness of the individual layers. The low interfacial friction models illustrate that stepping of fractures across bedding planes is a common process, which can however have two contrasting origins: The mechanical properties of the interface cause fracture stepping during fracture propagation. Originally through-going fractures are later offset by interfacial slip during folding. A combination of these two different origins may lead to (apparently) inconsistent fracture offsets across bedding planes within a flexural slip fold.

  15. New powerful statistics for alignment-free sequence comparison under a pattern transfer model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xuemei; Wan, Lin; Li, Jing; Reinert, Gesine; Waterman, Michael S; Sun, Fengzhu

    2011-09-07

    Alignment-free sequence comparison is widely used for comparing gene regulatory regions and for identifying horizontally transferred genes. Recent studies on the power of a widely used alignment-free comparison statistic D2 and its variants D*2 and D(s)2 showed that their power approximates a limit smaller than 1 as the sequence length tends to infinity under a pattern transfer model. We develop new alignment-free statistics based on D2, D*2 and D(s)2 by comparing local sequence pairs and then summing over all the local sequence pairs of certain length. We show that the new statistics are much more powerful than the corresponding statistics and the power tends to 1 as the sequence length tends to infinity under the pattern transfer model. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Modeling coding-sequence evolution within the context of residue solvent accessibility.

    PubMed

    Scherrer, Michael P; Meyer, Austin G; Wilke, Claus O

    2012-09-12

    Protein structure mediates site-specific patterns of sequence divergence. In particular, residues in the core of a protein (solvent-inaccessible residues) tend to be more evolutionarily conserved than residues on the surface (solvent-accessible residues). Here, we present a model of sequence evolution that explicitly accounts for the relative solvent accessibility of each residue in a protein. Our model is a variant of the Goldman-Yang 1994 (GY94) model in which all model parameters can be functions of the relative solvent accessibility (RSA) of a residue. We apply this model to a data set comprised of nearly 600 yeast genes, and find that an evolutionary-rate ratio ω that varies linearly with RSA provides a better model fit than an RSA-independent ω or an ω that is estimated separately in individual RSA bins. We further show that the branch length t and the transition-transverion ratio κ also vary with RSA. The RSA-dependent GY94 model performs better than an RSA-dependent Muse-Gaut 1994 (MG94) model in which the synonymous and non-synonymous rates individually are linear functions of RSA. Finally, protein core size affects the slope of the linear relationship between ω and RSA, and gene expression level affects both the intercept and the slope. Structure-aware models of sequence evolution provide a significantly better fit than traditional models that neglect structure. The linear relationship between ω and RSA implies that genes are better characterized by their ω slope and intercept than by just their mean ω.

  17. Modeling Structure-Function Relationships in Synthetic DNA Sequences using Attribute Grammars

    PubMed Central

    Cai, Yizhi; Lux, Matthew W.; Adam, Laura; Peccoud, Jean

    2009-01-01

    Recognizing that certain biological functions can be associated with specific DNA sequences has led various fields of biology to adopt the notion of the genetic part. This concept provides a finer level of granularity than the traditional notion of the gene. However, a method of formally relating how a set of parts relates to a function has not yet emerged. Synthetic biology both demands such a formalism and provides an ideal setting for testing hypotheses about relationships between DNA sequences and phenotypes beyond the gene-centric methods used in genetics. Attribute grammars are used in computer science to translate the text of a program source code into the computational operations it represents. By associating attributes with parts, modifying the value of these attributes using rules that describe the structure of DNA sequences, and using a multi-pass compilation process, it is possible to translate DNA sequences into molecular interaction network models. These capabilities are illustrated by simple example grammars expressing how gene expression rates are dependent upon single or multiple parts. The translation process is validated by systematically generating, translating, and simulating the phenotype of all the sequences in the design space generated by a small library of genetic parts. Attribute grammars represent a flexible framework connecting parts with models of biological function. They will be instrumental for building mathematical models of libraries of genetic constructs synthesized to characterize the function of genetic parts. This formalism is also expected to provide a solid foundation for the development of computer assisted design applications for synthetic biology. PMID:19816554

  18. Coulomb stress change sensitivity due to variability in mainshock source models and receiving fault parameters: A case study of the 2010-2011 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhan, Zhongwen; Jin, Bikai; Wei, Shengji; Graves, Robert W.

    2011-01-01

    Strong aftershocks following major earthquakes present significant challenges for infrastructure recovery as well as for emergency rescue efforts. A tragic instance of this is the 22 February 2011 Mw 6.3 Christchurch aftershock in New Zealand, which caused more than 100 deaths while the 2010 Mw 7.1 Canterbury mainshock did not cause a single fatality (Figure 1). Therefore, substantial efforts have been directed toward understanding the generation mechanisms of aftershocks as well as mitigating hazards due to aftershocks. Among these efforts are the prediction of strong aftershocks, earthquake early warning, and aftershock probability assessment. Zhang et al. (1999) reported a successful case of strong aftershock prediction with precursory data such as changes in seismicity pattern, variation of b-value, and geomagnetic anomalies. However, official reports of such successful predictions in geophysical journals are extremely rare, implying that deterministic prediction of potentially damaging aftershocks is not necessarily more scientifically feasible than prediction of mainshocks.

  19. Ongoing adverse mental health impact of the earthquake sequence in Christchurch, New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Spittlehouse, Janet K; Joyce, Peter R; Vierck, Esther; Schluter, Philip J; Pearson, John F

    2014-08-01

    In September 2010 Christchurch, New Zealand, was struck by a 7.1 magnitude earthquake, followed by a prolonged sequence of significant aftershocks including a fatal aftershock in February 2011. Christchurch City has experienced widespread damage, ongoing disruption and building demolitions resulting in many difficulties for the residents of the Christchurch area. We explore what impact the earthquakes have had on the mental and physical health of a random sample of 50-year-olds who live in the Christchurch area. The 295 participants were selected from the electoral rolls for participation in the CHALICE study, a longitudinal study of ageing. Self-reported health status was assessed using the standardised Short Form 36 version 2 health survey (SF-36v2), a 36-item questionnaire, and results from the eight subscales compared to a national health survey. Mood disorders were assessed and the results were compared to other local and national studies. Since the onset of the earthquakes and throughout the study period, participating middle-aged Christchurch residents have mean SF-36v2 scores significantly lower than population norms in the mental health, vitality, social functioning and role-emotional subscales (Cohen's d ranged from -0.270 to -0.357, all p < 0.001), while there was no evidence of reduced physical health. Rates of current major depressive disorder were 7.5% in the earthquake survivors compared to 5.1% and 3.7% in other historical, local and national surveys. Similarly, bipolar disorder prevalence was 2.8% in the earthquake survivors compared to 2.2% and 1.4% in other studies. Eighteen months after the first earthquake the significant adverse impact on mental health clearly continues. The ongoing provision of additional mental health services and consideration of these adverse mental health effects in relation to other social policies remains necessary and fundamental. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2014.

  20. Bayesian inference and interpretation of centroid moment tensors of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, Kyushu, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallo, Miroslav; Asano, Kimiyuki; Gallovič, František

    2017-09-01

    On April 16, 2016, Kumamoto prefecture in Kyushu region, Japan, was devastated by a shallow M JMA7.3 earthquake. The series of foreshocks started by M JMA6.5 foreshock 28 h before the mainshock. They have originated in Hinagu fault zone intersecting the mainshock Futagawa fault zone; hence, the tectonic background for this earthquake sequence is rather complex. Here we infer centroid moment tensors (CMTs) for 11 events with M JMA between 4.8 and 6.5, using strong motion records of the K-NET, KiK-net and F-net networks. We use upgraded Bayesian full-waveform inversion code ISOLA-ObsPy, which takes into account uncertainty of the velocity model. Such an approach allows us to reliably assess uncertainty of the CMT parameters including the centroid position. The solutions show significant systematic spatial and temporal variations throughout the sequence. Foreshocks are right-lateral steeply dipping strike-slip events connected to the NE-SW shear zone. Those located close to the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones are dipping slightly to ESE, while those in the southern area are dipping to WNW. Contrarily, aftershocks are mostly normal dip-slip events, being related to the N-S extensional tectonic regime. Most of the deviatoric moment tensors contain only minor CLVD component, which can be attributed to the velocity model uncertainty. Nevertheless, two of the CMTs involve a significant CLVD component, which may reflect complex rupture process. Decomposition of those moment tensors into two pure shear moment tensors suggests combined right-lateral strike-slip and normal dip-slip mechanisms, consistent with the tectonic settings of the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  1. Sequence2Vec: a novel embedding approach for modeling transcription factor binding affinity landscape.

    PubMed

    Dai, Hanjun; Umarov, Ramzan; Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Li, Yu; Song, Le; Gao, Xin

    2017-11-15

    An accurate characterization of transcription factor (TF)-DNA affinity landscape is crucial to a quantitative understanding of the molecular mechanisms underpinning endogenous gene regulation. While recent advances in biotechnology have brought the opportunity for building binding affinity prediction methods, the accurate characterization of TF-DNA binding affinity landscape still remains a challenging problem. Here we propose a novel sequence embedding approach for modeling the transcription factor binding affinity landscape. Our method represents DNA binding sequences as a hidden Markov model which captures both position specific information and long-range dependency in the sequence. A cornerstone of our method is a novel message passing-like embedding algorithm, called Sequence2Vec, which maps these hidden Markov models into a common nonlinear feature space and uses these embedded features to build a predictive model. Our method is a novel combination of the strength of probabilistic graphical models, feature space embedding and deep learning. We conducted comprehensive experiments on over 90 large-scale TF-DNA datasets which were measured by different high-throughput experimental technologies. Sequence2Vec outperforms alternative machine learning methods as well as the state-of-the-art binding affinity prediction methods. Our program is freely available at https://github.com/ramzan1990/sequence2vec. xin.gao@kaust.edu.sa or lsong@cc.gatech.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  2. Deformation along the western Indian plate boundary: new constraints from differential and multi-aperture InSAR data inversion for the 2008, Baluchistan (Western Pakistan) seismic sequence.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pezzo, Giuseppe; Merryman Boncori, John Peter; Atzori, Simone; Antonioli, Andrea; Salvi, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    We use Synthetic Aperture Radar Differential Interferometry (DInSAR) and Multi-Aperture Interferometry (MAI) to constrain the sources of the three largest events of the 2008 Baluchistan (western Pakistan) seismic sequence, namely two Mw 6.4 events only 12 hours apart and an Mw 5.7event occurred 40 days later. The sequence took place in the Quetta Syntaxis, the most seismically active region of Baluchistan, tectonically located between the colliding Indian Plate and the Afghan block of the Eurasian Plate. Elastic dislocation modelling of the surface displacements, derived from ascending and descending ENVISAT ASAR acquisitions, yields slip distributions with peak values of 80 cm and 70 cm for the two main events on a pair of strike-slip near-vertical faults, and values up to 50 cm for the largest aftershock on a NE-SW strike-slip fault. The MAI measurements, with their high sensitivity to the north-south motion component, are crucial in this area to resolve the fault plane ambiguity of moment tensors. We also studied the relationships between the largest earthquakes of the sequence by means of the Coulomb Failure Function to verify the agreement of our source modelling with the stress variations induced by the October 28 earthquake on the October 29 fault plane, and the stress variations induced by the two mainshocks on the December 09 fault plane. Our results provide insight into the deformation style of the Quetta Syntaxis, suggesting that right-lateral slip released at intermediate depths on large NW fault planes is compatible with contemporaneous left-lateral activation on NE-SW minor faults at shallower depths, in agreement with a bookshelf deformation mechanism.

  3. The Constantine (northeast Algeria) earthquake of October 27, 1985: surface ruptures and aftershock study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bounif, A.; Haessler, H.; Meghraoui, M.

    1987-10-01

    An earthquake of magnitude Ms = 6.0 (CSEM, Strasbourg) occurred at Constantine (Algeria) on 27 October 1985. This seismic event is the strongest felt in the Tellian Atlas since the El Asnam seismic crisis of October 10, 1980. A team from the Centre de Recherche d'Astronomie, d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique (CRAAG, Algeria), utilising 8 portable stations, registered the activity a few days after the main shock. The aftershocks follow a N045° direction, and show the existence of three ruptured segments. Cross sections display a remarkable vertical fault plane and suggest asperities in the rupture process. Surface breaks were found affecting Quaternary deposits. The principal segment is about 3.8 km long showing “enéchelon” cracks with left-lateral displacement while the main direction of the rupture is N055°. Although the vertical motion is small, the northwestern block shows a normal component of the main surface faulting, while the left-lateral displacement is about 10 cm. The strike-slip focal mechanism solution determined from the global seismic network and field observations are in good agreement.

  4. Spiking neural network model for memorizing sequences with forward and backward recall.

    PubMed

    Borisyuk, Roman; Chik, David; Kazanovich, Yakov; da Silva Gomes, João

    2013-06-01

    We present an oscillatory network of conductance based spiking neurons of Hodgkin-Huxley type as a model of memory storage and retrieval of sequences of events (or objects). The model is inspired by psychological and neurobiological evidence on sequential memories. The building block of the model is an oscillatory module which contains excitatory and inhibitory neurons with all-to-all connections. The connection architecture comprises two layers. A lower layer represents consecutive events during their storage and recall. This layer is composed of oscillatory modules. Plastic excitatory connections between the modules are implemented using an STDP type learning rule for sequential storage. Excitatory neurons in the upper layer project star-like modifiable connections toward the excitatory lower layer neurons. These neurons in the upper layer are used to tag sequences of events represented in the lower layer. Computer simulations demonstrate good performance of the model including difficult cases when different sequences contain overlapping events. We show that the model with STDP type or anti-STDP type learning rules can be applied for the simulation of forward and backward replay of neural spikes respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Centimeter-scale surface deformation caused by the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake sequence at the Carter farm site—Subsidiary structures with a quaternary history

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harrison, Richard W.; Schindler, J. Stephen; Pavich, Milan J.; Horton, J. Wright; Carter, Mark W.

    2016-08-25

    Centimeter-scale ground-surface deformation was produced by the August 23, 2011, magnitude (M) 5.8 earthquake that occurred in Mineral, Virginia. Ground-surface deformation also resulted from the earthquake aftershock sequence. This deformation occurred along a linear northeast-trend near Pendleton, Virginia. It is approximately 10 kilometers (km) northeast of the M5.8 epicenter and near the northeastern periphery of the epicentral area as defined by aftershocks. The ground-surface deformation extends over a distance of approximately 1.4 km and consists of parallel, small-scale (a few centimeters (cm) in amplitude) linear ridges and swales. Individual ridge and swale features are discontinuous and vary in length across a zone that ranges from about 20 meters (m) to less than 5 m in width. At one location, three fence posts and adjoining rails were vertically misaligned. Approximately 5 cm of uplift on one post provides a maximum estimate of vertical change from pre-earthquake conditions along the ridge and swale features. There was no change in the alignment of fence posts, indicating that deformation was entirely vertical. A broad monoclinal flexure with approximately 1 m of relief was identified by transit survey across surface deformation at the Carter farm site. There, surface deformation overlies the Carter farm fault, which is a zone of brittle faulting and fracturing along quartz veins, striking N40°E and dipping approximately 75°SE. Brecciation and shearing along this fault is interpreted as Quaternary in age because it disrupts the modern B-soil horizon. However, deformation is confined to saprolitized schist of the Ordovician Quantico Formation and the lowermost portion of overlying residuum, and is absent in the uppermost residuum and colluvial layer at the ground surface. Because there is a lack of surface shearing and very low relief, landslide processes were not a causative mechanism for the surface deformation. Two possible tectonic models and one

  6. Strategic crisis and risk communication during a prolonged natural hazard event: lessons learned from the Canterbury earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Doyle, E. E.; Jones, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    While communication products are developed for monitoring and forecasting hazard events, less thought may have been given to crisis and risk communication plans. During larger (and rarer) events responsible science agencies may find themselves facing new and intensified demands for information and unprepared for effectively resourcing communications. In a study of the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-12 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (New Zealand), issues are identified and implications for communication strategy noted. Communication issues during the responses included reliability and timeliness of communication channels for immediate and short decision time frames; access to scientists by those who needed information; unfamiliar emergency management frameworks; information needs of multiple audiences, audience readiness to use the information; and how best to convey empathy during traumatic events and refer to other information sources about what to do and how to cope. Other science communication challenges included meeting an increased demand for earthquake education, getting attention on aftershock forecasts; responding to rumor management; supporting uptake of information by critical infrastructure and government and for the application of scientific information in complex societal decisions; dealing with repetitive information requests; addressing diverse needs of multiple audiences for scientific information; and coordinating communications within and outside the science domain. For a science agency, a communication strategy would consider training scientists in communication, establishing relationships with university scientists and other disaster communication roles, coordinating messages, prioritizing audiences, deliberating forecasts with community leaders, identifying user needs and familiarizing them with the products ahead of time, and practicing the delivery and use of information via scenario planning and exercises.

  7. Stress change and fault interaction from a two century-long earthquake sequence in the central Tell Atlas (Algeria)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kariche, Jughurta; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Ayadi, Abdelhakim; Salah Boughacha, Mohamed

    2017-04-01

    We study the role and distribution of stress transfer that may trigger destructive earthquakes in the Central Tell Atlas (Algeria). A sequence of historical events reaching Ms 7.3 and related stress tensors with thrust faulting mechanisms allows the modeling of the Coulomb Failure Function (deltaCFF). We explore here the physical parameters for a stress transfer along the Tell thrust-and-fold belt taking into account an eastward trending earthquake migration from 1891 to 2003. The Computation integrated the seismicity rate in the deltaCFF computation, which is in good agreement with the migration seismicity. The stress transfer progression and increase of 0.1 to 0.8 bar are obtained on fault planes at 7-km-depth with a friction coefficient µ' 0.4 showing stress loading lobes on targeted coseismic fault zone and location of stress shadow across other thrust-and-fold regions. The Coulomb modeling suggests a distinction in earthquake triggering between zones with moderate-sized and large earthquake ruptures. Recent InSAR and levelling studies and aftershocks that document postseismic deformation of major earthquakes are integrated into the static stress change calculations. The presence of fluid and related poroelastic deformation can be considered as an open question with regards to their contribution to major earthquakes and their implications in the seismic hazard assessment of northern Algeria.

  8. Self-Organizing Hidden Markov Model Map (SOHMMM): Biological Sequence Clustering and Cluster Visualization.

    PubMed

    Ferles, Christos; Beaufort, William-Scott; Ferle, Vanessa

    2017-01-01

    The present study devises mapping methodologies and projection techniques that visualize and demonstrate biological sequence data clustering results. The Sequence Data Density Display (SDDD) and Sequence Likelihood Projection (SLP) visualizations represent the input symbolical sequences in a lower-dimensional space in such a way that the clusters and relations of data elements are depicted graphically. Both operate in combination/synergy with the Self-Organizing Hidden Markov Model Map (SOHMMM). The resulting unified framework is in position to analyze automatically and directly raw sequence data. This analysis is carried out with little, or even complete absence of, prior information/domain knowledge.

  9. Near-field investigations of the Landers earthquake sequence, April to July 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sieh, K.; Jones, L.; Hauksson, E.; Hudnut, K.; Eberhart-Phillips, D.; Heaton, T.; Hough, S.; Hutton, K.; Kanamori, H.; Lilje, A.; Lindvall, Scott; McGill, S.F.; Mori, J.; Rubin, C.; Spotila, J.A.; Stock, J.; Thio, H.K.; Treiman, J.; Wernicke, B.; Zachariasen, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Landers earthquake, which had a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.3, was the largest earthquake to strike the contiguous United States in 40 years. This earthquake resulted from the rupture of five major and many minor right-lateral faults near the southern end of the eastern California shear zone, just north of the San Andreas fault. Its Mw 6.1 preshock and Mw 6.2 aftershock had their own aftershocks and foreshocks. Surficial geological observations are consistent with local and far-field seismologic observations of the earthquake. Large surficial offsets (as great as 6 meters) and a relatively short rupture length (85 kilometers) are consistent with seismological calculations of a high stress drop (200 bars), which is in turn consistent with an apparently long recurrence interval for these faults.

  10. Establishing gene models from the Pinus pinaster genome using gene capture and BAC sequencing.

    PubMed

    Seoane-Zonjic, Pedro; Cañas, Rafael A; Bautista, Rocío; Gómez-Maldonado, Josefa; Arrillaga, Isabel; Fernández-Pozo, Noé; Claros, M Gonzalo; Cánovas, Francisco M; Ávila, Concepción

    2016-02-27

    In the era of DNA throughput sequencing, assembling and understanding gymnosperm mega-genomes remains a challenge. Although drafts of three conifer genomes have recently been published, this number is too low to understand the full complexity of conifer genomes. Using techniques focused on specific genes, gene models can be established that can aid in the assembly of gene-rich regions, and this information can be used to compare genomes and understand functional evolution. In this study, gene capture technology combined with BAC isolation and sequencing was used as an experimental approach to establish de novo gene structures without a reference genome. Probes were designed for 866 maritime pine transcripts to sequence genes captured from genomic DNA. The gene models were constructed using GeneAssembler, a new bioinformatic pipeline, which reconstructed over 82% of the gene structures, and a high proportion (85%) of the captured gene models contained sequences from the promoter regulatory region. In a parallel experiment, the P. pinaster BAC library was screened to isolate clones containing genes whose cDNA sequence were already available. BAC clones containing the asparagine synthetase, sucrose synthase and xyloglucan endotransglycosylase gene sequences were isolated and used in this study. The gene models derived from the gene capture approach were compared with the genomic sequences derived from the BAC clones. This combined approach is a particularly efficient way to capture the genomic structures of gene families with a small number of members. The experimental approach used in this study is a valuable combined technique to study genomic gene structures in species for which a reference genome is unavailable. It can be used to establish exon/intron boundaries in unknown gene structures, to reconstruct incomplete genes and to obtain promoter sequences that can be used for transcriptional studies. A bioinformatics algorithm (GeneAssembler) is also provided as a

  11. Sequence Determines Degree of Knottedness in a Coarse-Grained Protein Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wüst, Thomas; Reith, Daniel; Virnau, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Knots are abundant in globular homopolymers but rare in globular proteins. To shed new light on this long-standing conundrum, we study the influence of sequence on the formation of knots in proteins under native conditions within the framework of the hydrophobic-polar lattice protein model. By employing large-scale Wang-Landau simulations combined with suitable Monte Carlo trial moves we show that even though knots are still abundant on average, sequence introduces large variability in the degree of self-entanglements. Moreover, we are able to design sequences which are either almost always or almost never knotted. Our findings serve as proof of concept that the introduction of just one additional degree of freedom per monomer (in our case sequence) facilitates evolution towards a protein universe in which knots are rare.

  12. Solar Luminosity on the Main Sequence, Standard Model and Variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayukov, S. V.; Baturin, V. A.; Gorshkov, A. B.; Oreshina, A. V.

    2017-05-01

    Our Sun became Main Sequence star 4.6 Gyr ago according Standard Solar Model. At that time solar luminosity was 30% lower than current value. This conclusion is based on assumption that Sun is fueled by thermonuclear reactions. If Earth's albedo and emissivity in infrared are unchanged during Earth history, 2.3 Gyr ago oceans had to be frozen. This contradicts to geological data: there was liquid water 3.6-3.8 Gyr ago on Earth. This problem is known as Faint Young Sun Paradox. We analyze luminosity change in standard solar evolution theory. Increase of mean molecular weight in the central part of the Sun due to conversion of hydrogen to helium leads to gradual increase of luminosity with time on the Main Sequence. We also consider several exotic models: fully mixed Sun; drastic change of pp reaction rate; Sun consisting of hydrogen and helium only. Solar neutrino observations however exclude most non-standard solar models.

  13. Long-term seismicity of the Reykjanes Ridge (North Atlantic) recorded by a regional hydrophone array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goslin, Jean; Lourenço, Nuno; Dziak, Robert P.; Bohnenstiehl, DelWayne R.; Haxel, Joe; Luis, Joaquim

    2005-08-01

    The seismicity of the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge was recorded by two hydrophone networks moored in the sound fixing and ranging (SOFAR) channel, on the flanks of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, north and south of the Azores. During its period of operation (05/2002-09/2003), the northern `SIRENA' network, deployed between latitudes 40° 20'N and 50° 30'N, recorded acoustic signals generated by 809 earthquakes on the hotspot-influenced Reykjanes Ridge. This activity was distributed between five spatio-temporal event clusters, each initiated by a moderate-to-large magnitude (4.0-5.6 M) earthquake. The rate of earthquake occurrence within the initial portion of the largest sequence (which began on 2002 October 6) is described adequately by a modified Omori law aftershock model. Although this is consistent with triggering by tectonic processes, none of the Reykjanes Ridge sequences are dominated by a single large-magnitude earthquake, and they appear to be of relatively short duration (0.35-4.5 d) when compared to previously described mid-ocean ridge aftershock sequences. The occurrence of several near-equal magnitude events distributed throughout each sequence is inconsistent with the simple relaxation of mainshock-induced stresses and may reflect the involvement of magmatic or fluid processes along this deep (>2000 m) section of the Reykjanes Ridge.

  14. Genome sequence of the model medicinal mushroom Ganoderma lucidum

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Shilin; Xu, Jiang; Liu, Chang; Zhu, Yingjie; Nelson, David R.; Zhou, Shiguo; Li, Chunfang; Wang, Lizhi; Guo, Xu; Sun, Yongzhen; Luo, Hongmei; Li, Ying; Song, Jingyuan; Henrissat, Bernard; Levasseur, Anthony; Qian, Jun; Li, Jianqin; Luo, Xiang; Shi, Linchun; He, Liu; Xiang, Li; Xu, Xiaolan; Niu, Yunyun; Li, Qiushi; Han, Mira V.; Yan, Haixia; Zhang, Jin; Chen, Haimei; Lv, Aiping; Wang, Zhen; Liu, Mingzhu; Schwartz, David C.; Sun, Chao

    2012-01-01

    Ganoderma lucidum is a widely used medicinal macrofungus in traditional Chinese medicine that creates a diverse set of bioactive compounds. Here we report its 43.3-Mb genome, encoding 16,113 predicted genes, obtained using next-generation sequencing and optical mapping approaches. The sequence analysis reveals an impressive array of genes encoding cytochrome P450s (CYPs), transporters and regulatory proteins that cooperate in secondary metabolism. The genome also encodes one of the richest sets of wood degradation enzymes among all of the sequenced basidiomycetes. In all, 24 physical CYP gene clusters are identified. Moreover, 78 CYP genes are coexpressed with lanosterol synthase, and 16 of these show high similarity to fungal CYPs that specifically hydroxylate testosterone, suggesting their possible roles in triterpenoid biosynthesis. The elucidation of the G. lucidum genome makes this organism a potential model system for the study of secondary metabolic pathways and their regulation in medicinal fungi. PMID:22735441

  15. The Emilia 2012 seismic sequence: hints on incipient basement-involved deformation in the foreland of the Northern Apennines (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argnani, Andrea; Carannante, Simona; Massa, Marco; D'Alema, Ezio; Lovati, Sara

    2015-04-01

    The deformation front of the Northern Apennines is buried under the sediments of the Po Plain and was formed mainly during the Pliocene. The remarkably arcuate shape of the thrust front contrasts with the linear northwestern trend of the pede-Apennines, where recent deformation is documented by both geological and geodetic evidence. This study presents new geological and seismological data that are used to assess the structural style of the Ferrara Arc, a sector of the Northern Apennine front that was hit by two strong earthquakes on May 20 (MW 6.1) and May 29 (MW 6.0), 2012. The proposed interpretation is based on a dense grid of commercial seismic profiles and exploration wells, and high-quality relocation of ~5,300 earthquakes (the Emilia sequence). The seismicity was used to calibrate new one-dimensional and three-dimensional local Vp and Vs velocity models for the area. On the basis of these new models, the initial sparse hypocenters were then relocated in absolute mode and adjusted using the double-difference relative location algorithm. Seismicity distribution is elongated in the W-NW to E-SE directions, reaching a depth of 10-12 km. The aftershocks of the May 20 mainshock appear to be distributed on a rupture surface that dips ~45° SSW, and the surface projection indicates an area ~10 km wide and 23 km long. The aftershocks of the May 29 second mainshock followed a steep rupture surface that is well constrained within the investigated volume, whereby the surface projection of the blind source indicates an area ~6 km wide and 33 km long. The analysed multichannel seismic profiles highlight the presence of relevant lateral variations in the structural style of the Ferrara folds that developed during the Pliocene and Pleistocene, and also show the occurrence of a Mesozoic extensional fault system in the Ferrara arc, which in places has been seismically reactivated. These geological and seismological observations suggest that the 2012 Emilia earthquakes were

  16. Bayesian clustering of DNA sequences using Markov chains and a stochastic partition model.

    PubMed

    Jääskinen, Väinö; Parkkinen, Ville; Cheng, Lu; Corander, Jukka

    2014-02-01

    In many biological applications it is necessary to cluster DNA sequences into groups that represent underlying organismal units, such as named species or genera. In metagenomics this grouping needs typically to be achieved on the basis of relatively short sequences which contain different types of errors, making the use of a statistical modeling approach desirable. Here we introduce a novel method for this purpose by developing a stochastic partition model that clusters Markov chains of a given order. The model is based on a Dirichlet process prior and we use conjugate priors for the Markov chain parameters which enables an analytical expression for comparing the marginal likelihoods of any two partitions. To find a good candidate for the posterior mode in the partition space, we use a hybrid computational approach which combines the EM-algorithm with a greedy search. This is demonstrated to be faster and yield highly accurate results compared to earlier suggested clustering methods for the metagenomics application. Our model is fairly generic and could also be used for clustering of other types of sequence data for which Markov chains provide a reasonable way to compress information, as illustrated by experiments on shotgun sequence type data from an Escherichia coli strain.

  17. A Developmental Sequence Model to University Adjustment of International Undergraduate Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chavoshi, Saeid; Wintre, Maxine Gallander; Dentakos, Stella; Wright, Lorna

    2017-01-01

    The current study proposes a Developmental Sequence Model to University Adjustment and uses a multifaceted measure, including academic, social and psychological adjustment, to examine factors predictive of undergraduate international student adjustment. A hierarchic regression model is carried out on the Student Adaptation to College Questionnaire…

  18. Genome sequencing and analysis of the model grass Brachypodium distachyon

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yang, Xiaohan; Kalluri, Udaya C; Tuskan, Gerald A

    Three subfamilies of grasses, the Ehrhartoideae, Panicoideae and Pooideae, provide the bulk of human nutrition and are poised to become major sources of renewable energy. Here we describe the genome sequence of the wild grass Brachypodium distachyon (Brachypodium), which is, to our knowledge, the first member of the Pooideae subfamily to be sequenced. Comparison of the Brachypodium, rice and sorghum genomes shows a precise history of genome evolution across a broad diversity of the grasses, and establishes a template for analysis of the large genomes of economically important pooid grasses such as wheat. The high-quality genome sequence, coupled with easemore » of cultivation and transformation, small size and rapid life cycle, will help Brachypodium reach its potential as an important model system for developing new energy and food crops.« less

  19. Sequential combination of multi-source satellite observations for separation of surface deformation associated with serial seismic events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Qiang; Xu, Qian; Zhang, Yijun; Yang, Yinghui; Yong, Qi; Liu, Guoxiang; Liu, Xianwen

    2018-03-01

    Single satellite geodetic technique has weakness for mapping sequence of ground deformation associated with serial seismic events, like InSAR with long revisiting period readily leading to mixed complex deformation signals from multiple events. It challenges the observation capability of single satellite geodetic technique for accurate recognition of individual surface deformation and earthquake model. The rapidly increasing availability of various satellite observations provides good solution for overcoming the issue. In this study, we explore a sequential combination of multiple overlapping datasets from ALOS/PALSAR, ENVISAT/ASAR and GPS observations to separate surface deformation associated with the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki major quake and two strong aftershocks including the Mw 6.6 Iwaki and Mw 5.8 Ibaraki events. We first estimate the fault slip model of major shock with ASAR interferometry and GPS displacements as constraints. Due to the used PALSAR interferogram spanning the period of all the events, we then remove the surface deformation of major shock through forward calculated prediction thus obtaining PALSAR InSAR deformation associated with the two strong aftershocks. The inversion for source parameters of Iwaki aftershock is conducted using the refined PALSAR deformation considering that the higher magnitude Iwaki quake has dominant deformation contribution than the Ibaraki event. After removal of deformation component of Iwaki event, we determine the fault slip distribution of Ibaraki shock using the remained PALSAR InSAR deformation. Finally, the complete source models for the serial seismic events are clearly identified from the sequential combination of multi-source satellite observations, which suggest that the major quake is a predominant mega-thrust rupture, whereas the two aftershocks are normal faulting motion. The estimated seismic moment magnitude for the Tohoku-Oki, Iwaki and Ibaraki evens are Mw 9.0, Mw 6.85 and Mw 6.11, respectively.

  20. Coseismic and Postseismic Deformation Following the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and its Mw 7.9 Aftershock: Searching for Fault-localized Relaxation of Coseismic Stress Increments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, F.; Bevis, M. G.; Blewitt, G.; Gomez, D.

    2017-12-01

    We study the postseismic transient displacements following the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake using the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory's daily and 5-minute interval PPP solutions for 1,272 continuous GPS stations in Japan, with particular emphasis on the early transient displacements of these stations. One significant complication is the Mw 7.9 aftershock that occurred just 29.3 minutes after the main shock, since the coseismic (and postseismic) displacements driven by the aftershock are superimposed on the postseismic transients driven by the main shock. We address the question of whether or not the stresses induced by the Mw 9.0 main shock were relaxed by any major faults within Japan. The notion is that significant stress relaxation which is localized on a fault system should be manifested in the spatial pattern of the postseismic transient displacement field in the vicinity of that system. This would provide a basis for distinguishing between faults that engage in stick-slip behavior and those that creep instead. The distinction is important in that it has implications for the seismic risk associated with upper plate faulting. We will make the case that we do detect localized fault creeping in response to the coseismic stress field produced by the Mw 9 event.