Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry
Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.
2010-01-01
Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.
Direct Density Derivative Estimation.
Sasaki, Hiroaki; Noh, Yung-Kyun; Niu, Gang; Sugiyama, Masashi
2016-06-01
Estimating the derivatives of probability density functions is an essential step in statistical data analysis. A naive approach to estimate the derivatives is to first perform density estimation and then compute its derivatives. However, this approach can be unreliable because a good density estimator does not necessarily mean a good density derivative estimator. To cope with this problem, in this letter, we propose a novel method that directly estimates density derivatives without going through density estimation. The proposed method provides computationally efficient estimation for the derivatives of any order on multidimensional data with a hyperparameter tuning method and achieves the optimal parametric convergence rate. We further discuss an extension of the proposed method by applying regularized multitask learning and a general framework for density derivative estimation based on Bregman divergences. Applications of the proposed method to nonparametric Kullback-Leibler divergence approximation and bandwidth matrix selection in kernel density estimation are also explored. PMID:27140943
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fisher, J. C.; Rousseau, J. P.; Bartholomay, R. C.; Rattray, G. W.
2011-12-01
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, evaluated a three-dimensional model of groundwater flow in the fractured basalts and interbedded sediments of the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer at and near the Idaho National Laboratory to determine if model-derived estimates of groundwater movement are consistent with: (1) results from previous studies on water chemistry type, (2) the geochemical mixing at an example well, and (3) independently-derived estimates of the average linear velocity. Simulated steady-state flow fields were analyzed using backward particle-tracking simulations that were based on a modified version of the particle tracking program MODPATH. The model adequately simulated the areal shape of the 5 microgram per liter lithium contour interpreted to represent the transition from a water type that is primarily composed of tributary valley underflow and streamflow infiltration recharge to a water type primarily composed of regional aquifer underflow. Inconsistences between model- and independently-derived estimates of water type separation in the southern portion of the model area may indicate model error, where unreasonable estimates of hydraulic conductivity result in an over displacement of tributary valley water by the relatively fast moving regional aquifer water. Sources of water at well NPR-W01 were identified using backward particle tracking, and they were compared to the relative percentages of source water chemistry determined using geochemical mass balance and mixing models. The particle tracking results show a good comparison with chemistry results for surface water sources (10 percent difference); however, regional aquifer sources were significantly overestimated by the model. The water samples used in the chemistry analysis were collected from an isolated depth interval in the upper 10 feet of the aquifer, an area likely absent of deeper regional groundwater; whereas, the simulated particles were
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Campana, M. E.; Mahin, D. A.
1985-02-01
The Edwards aquifer of south-central Texas, U.S.A., a highly fractured and faulted group of limestone formations, is the major water supply for the San Antonio area. A discrete-state compartment (DSC) model or mixing-cell model, based upon the conservation of environmental tritium within the aquifer, was used to obtain estimates of groundwater mean ages, recharge, effective porosities and storage in the Edwards aquifer in the vicinity of San Antonio, Texas. The model was calibrated and validated with the spatial and temporal (1953-1971) distributions of environmental 3H (tritium) in the groundwater. The final model consisted of 34 cells; eight of these cells represented the unconfined portion of the Edwards aquifer in the vicinity of the Balcones fault zone, an area where recharge occurs via streamflow infiltration and direct infiltration of precipitation. The model confirmed previous analyses of flow in the Edwards system: generally parallel to the Balcones fault zone with restricted flow perpendicular to this zone. Groundwater mean ages ranged from 16 to over 130 yr. The storage volume of the confined portion of the Edwards aquifer is ˜ 30.9 km 3, which corresponds to an average effective porosity of 4.8% (range: 1.9-8%). The average annual recharge to the Edwards aquifer during the period 1953-1971 was 0.614 km 3. The study demonstrated that discrete-state compartment models calibrated and validated with environmental tritium distributions can yield valuable hydrogeologic information that is difficult or expensive to obtain using traditional techniques. The approach used in the study is particularly suited to limestone aquifers, which are normally extremely difficult to analyze with traditional methods.
Age estimation from canine volumes.
De Angelis, Danilo; Gaudio, Daniel; Guercini, Nicola; Cipriani, Filippo; Gibelli, Daniele; Caputi, Sergio; Cattaneo, Cristina
2015-08-01
Techniques for estimation of biological age are constantly evolving and are finding daily application in the forensic radiology field in cases concerning the estimation of the chronological age of a corpse in order to reconstruct the biological profile, or of a living subject, for example in cases of immigration of people without identity papers from a civil registry. The deposition of teeth secondary dentine and consequent decrease of pulp chamber in size are well known as aging phenomena, and they have been applied to the forensic context by the development of age estimation procedures, such as Kvaal-Solheim and Cameriere methods. The present study takes into consideration canines pulp chamber volume related to the entire teeth volume, with the aim of proposing new regression formulae for age estimation using 91 cone beam computerized scans and a freeware open-source software, in order to permit affordable reproducibility of volumes calculation. PMID:25698302
ESTIMATION OF AGE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
ZINTER, JUDITH R.
THIS NOTE DESCRIBES THE PROCEDURES USED IN DETERMINING DYNAMOD II AGE TRANSITION MATRICES. A SEPARATE MATRIX FOR EACH SEX-RACE GROUP IS DEVELOPED. THESE MATRICES WILL BE USED AS AN AID IN ESTIMATING THE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN THE LARGER DYNAMOD II MATRIX RELATING AGE TO OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES. THREE STEPS WERE USED IN THE PROCEDURE--(1)…
Position Estimation Using Image Derivative
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mortari, Daniele; deDilectis, Francesco; Zanetti, Renato
2015-01-01
This paper describes an image processing algorithm to process Moon and/or Earth images. The theory presented is based on the fact that Moon hard edge points are characterized by the highest values of the image derivative. Outliers are eliminated by two sequential filters. Moon center and radius are then estimated by nonlinear least-squares using circular sigmoid functions. The proposed image processing has been applied and validated using real and synthetic Moon images.
Age estimation using intraoral periapical radiographs
Rajpal, Pooja S.; Krishnamurthy, Vasavi; Pagare, Sandeep S.; Sachdev, Geeta D.
2016-01-01
Context: Changes in the size of dental pulp caused by the apposition of secondary dentin and occlusal wear are morphometric parameters for estimating age. Aim: To estimate the accuracy of age evaluation by Kvaal's method and the effect of occlusal wear on age using digital intraoral periapical radiographs in a subset of the Indian population. Materials and Methods: A total of 300 teeth were radiographically evaluated using intraoral periapical digital radiographs from 50 adult patients. A few modifications were made in the design of the study compared to the original Kvaal's method. The radiographs of three teeth from each jaw were taken and morphometric measurements in ratios were analyzed, which included the pulp length to tooth length (X1), pulp length to root length (X2), pulp width to root widths at three defined levels (X3), and tooth length to root length (X4). Statistical Analysis: The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (PCC) between age and the morphological variables showed that among them X1, X2, and X3 were statistically significant but not the tooth root length ratio (X4). Conclusions: The ratios X1, X2, and X3 were good indicators of age and hence a multiple linear regression model for age estimation was derived using these three variables. However, it was found that X4 was not a good indicator of age estimation in said population. PMID:27051226
Forensic Dental Age Estimation: An Overview.
Lewis, James M; Senn, David R
2015-06-01
Forensic age estimation is a scientific process that estimates an individual's true chronologic age by assessing skeletal and dental development and maturation. Although human growth and maturation is unique to each individual, dental techniques for estimating age are currently considered the best in assessing true chronologic age particularly during the age range when the dentition is undergoing morphologic development. This article reviews the principles, methodology and commonly used techniques in forensic age estimation cases. PMID:26126347
Age Estimation in Forensic Sciences
Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A.; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L.
2010-01-01
Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955–1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 (14C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2 = 0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 1.0 ± 0.6 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 ± 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification. PMID:19965905
Ages estimated from a diffusion equation model for scarp degradation
Colman, Steven M.; Watson, K.E.N.
1983-01-01
The diffusion equation derived from the continuity equation for hillslopes is applied to scarp erosion in unconsolidated materials. Solutions to this equation allow direct calculation of the product of the rate coefficient and the age of the scarp from measurements of scarp morphology. Where the rate coefficient can be estimated or can be derived from scarps of known age, this method allows direct calculation of unknown ages of scarps.
Ethics in age estimation of unaccompanied minors.
Thevissen, P W; Kvaal, S I; Willems, G
2012-11-01
Children absconding from countries of conflict and war are often not able to document their age. When an age is given, it is frequently untraceable or poorly documented and therefore questioned by immigration authorities. Consequently many countries perform age estimations on these children. Provision of ethical practice during the age estimation investigation of unaccompanied minors is considered from different angles: (1) The UN convention on children's rights, formulating specific rights, protection, support, healthcare and education for unaccompanied minors. (2) Since most age estimation investigations are based on medical examination, the four basic principles of biomedical ethics, namely autonomy, beneficence, non-malevolence, justice. (3) The use of medicine for non treatment purposes. (4) How age estimates with highest accuracy in age prediction can be obtained. Ethical practice in age estimation of unaccompanied minors is achieved when different but related aspects are searched, evaluated, weighted in importance and subsequently combined. However this is not always feasible and unanswered questions remain. PMID:23221269
Bayesian estimation of isotopic age differences
Curl, R.L.
1988-08-01
Isotopic dating is subject to uncertainties arising from counting statistics and experimental errors. These uncertainties are additive when an isotopic age difference is calculated. If large, they can lead to no significant age difference by classical statistics. In many cases, relative ages are known because of stratigraphic order or other clues. Such information can be used to establish a Bayes estimate of age difference which will include prior knowledge of age order. Age measurement errors are assumed to be log-normal and a noninformative but constrained bivariate prior for two true ages in known order is adopted. True-age ratio is distributed as a truncated log-normal variate. Its expected value gives an age-ratio estimate, and its variance provides credible intervals. Bayesian estimates of ages are different and in correct order even if measured ages are identical or reversed in order. For example, age measurements on two samples might both yield 100 ka with coefficients of variation of 0.2. Bayesian estimates are 22.7 ka for age difference with a 75% credible interval of (4.4, 43.7) ka.
Age estimation based on Kvaal's technique using digital panoramic radiographs
Mittal, Samta; Nagendrareddy, Suma Gundareddy; Sharma, Manisha Lakhanpal; Agnihotri, Poornapragna; Chaudhary, Sunil; Dhillon, Manu
2016-01-01
Introduction: Age estimation is important for administrative and ethical reasons and also because of legal consequences. Dental pulp undergoes regression in size with increasing age due to secondary dentin deposition and can be used as a parameter of age estimation even beyond 25 years of age. Kvaal et al. developed a method for chronological age estimation based on the pulp size using periapical dental radiographs. There is a need for testing this method of age estimation in the Indian population using simple tools like digital imaging on living individuals not requiring extraction of teeth. Aims and Objectives: Estimation of the chronological age of subjects by Kvaal's method using digital panoramic radiographs and also testing the validity of regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. Materials and Methods: The study sample included a total of 152 subjects in the age group of 14-60 years. Measurements were performed on the standardized digital panoramic radiographs based on Kvaal's method. Different regression formulae were derived and the age was assessed. The assessed age was then correlated to the actual age of the patient using Student's t-test. Results: No significant difference between the mean of the chronological age and the estimated age was observed. However, the values of the mean age estimated by using regression equations as given previously in the study of Kvaal et al. significantly underestimated the chronological age in the present study sample. Conclusion: The results of the study give an inference for the feasibility of this technique by calculation of regression equations on digital panoramic radiographs. However, it negates the applicability of same regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. on the study population.
Calibration age and quartet divergence date estimation.
Brochu, Christopher A
2004-06-01
The date of a single divergence point--between living alligators and crocodiles--was estimated with quartet dating using calibrations of widely divergent ages. For five mitochondrial sequence datasets, there is a clear relationship between calibration age and quartet estimate--quartets based on two relatively recent calibrations support younger divergence estimates than do quartets based on two older calibrations. Some of the estimates supported by young quartets are impossibly young and exclude the first appearance of the group in the fossil record as too old. The older estimates--those based on two relatively old calibrations--may be overestimates, and those based on one old and one recent calibration support divergence estimates very close to fossil data. This suggests that quartet dating methods may be most effective when calibrations are applied from different parts of a clade's history. PMID:15266985
Relative Attribute SVM+ Learning for Age Estimation.
Wang, Shengzheng; Tao, Dacheng; Yang, Jie
2016-03-01
When estimating age, human experts can provide privileged information that encodes the facial attributes of aging, such as smoothness, face shape, face acne, wrinkles, and bags under-eyes. In automatic age estimation, privileged information is unavailable to test images. To overcome this problem, we hypothesize that asymmetric information can be explored and exploited to improve the generalizability of the trained model. Using the learning using privileged information (LUPI) framework, we tested this hypothesis by carefully defining relative attributes for support vector machine (SVM+) to improve the performance of age estimation. We term this specific setting as relative attribute SVM+ (raSVM+), in which the privileged information enables separation of outliers from inliers at the training stage and effectively manipulates slack variables and age determination errors during model training, and thus guides the trained predictor toward a generalizable solution. Experimentally, the superiority of raSVM+ was confirmed by comparing it with state-of-the-art algorithms on the face and gesture recognition research network (FG-NET) and craniofacial longitudinal morphological face aging databases. raSVM+ is a promising development that improves age estimation, with the mean absolute error reaching 4.07 on FG-NET. PMID:25850101
Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.
Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto
2015-05-10
Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. PMID:25645903
Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios
Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.
2010-01-01
We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in
Epigenetic estimation of age in humpback whales.
Polanowski, Andrea M; Robbins, Jooke; Chandler, David; Jarman, Simon N
2014-09-01
Age is a fundamental aspect of animal ecology, but is difficult to determine in many species. Humpback whales exemplify this as they have a lifespan comparable to humans, mature sexually as early as 4 years and have no reliable visual age indicators after their first year. Current methods for estimating humpback age cannot be applied to all individuals and populations. Assays for human age have recently been developed based on age-induced changes in DNA methylation of specific genes. We used information on age-associated DNA methylation in human and mouse genes to identify homologous gene regions in humpbacks. Humpback skin samples were obtained from individuals with a known year of birth and employed to calibrate relationships between cytosine methylation and age. Seven of 37 cytosines assayed for methylation level in humpback skin had significant age-related profiles. The three most age-informative cytosine markers were selected for a humpback epigenetic age assay. The assay has an R(2) of 0.787 (P = 3.04e-16) and predicts age from skin samples with a standard deviation of 2.991 years. The epigenetic method correctly determined which of parent-offspring pairs is the parent in more than 93% of cases. To demonstrate the potential of this technique, we constructed the first modern age profile of humpback whales off eastern Australia and compared the results to population structure 5 decades earlier. This is the first epigenetic age estimation method for a wild animal species and the approach we took for developing it can be applied to many other nonmodel organisms. PMID:24606053
Age estimation of indian adults from orthopantomographs.
Saxena, Sudhanshu
2011-01-01
The aim of this study was to develop a method for estimating the chronological age of Indian adults based on the relationship between age and various morphological variables of canine teeth, obtained using orthopantomographs. Orthopantomographs of 120 selected patients were digitized, and radiographic images of the right maxillary canine in each case were processed using a computer aided drafting program. Pulp/tooth area ratio, pulp/root length ratio, pulp/tooth length ratio, pulp/root width ratio at the cemento-enamel junction level, pulp/root width ratio at midroot level, and pulp/root width ratio at the midpoint between the cemento-enamel junction and the midroot of the canine were calculated by measuring various features on the images. Pearson's correlation, multiple linear regression, one way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Student's t-test were used for statistical analysis. Regression equations were developed to estimate age from morphological variables. The observed minus the estimated age in the total study sample ranged from -2.2 to +1.5 years, in males from -0.9 to +0.8 years, while in females it was from -1 to +0.8 years. Differences between observed and estimated ages of subjects were not statistically significant. In conclusion there is a linear relationship of pulp/root width ratio at mid-root level and pulp/tooth area ratio of the right maxillary canine with chronological age in the Indian population. Age of subjects can therefore be estimated with a good degree of accuracy using regression equations. PMID:21503416
Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.
Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S
2010-11-01
Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions. PMID:20847387
Estimating age in black South African children.
Uys, A; Fabris-Rotelli, I; Bernitz, H
2014-03-01
Forensic dentists are frequently required to determine the age at death of unidentified skeletons, or to age live individuals who have no record/documentation of their chronological age. In order to be of the greatest value, the method used should have the lowest possible standard deviation and be validated for the individual's specific population group. The method most frequently used in Forensic Dentistry for the estimation of age in children, was described by Demirjian et al. The maturity standards determined were based on samples of French Canadian origin and it has been recommended by several authors that correction factors be incorporated when applying this method to different population groups. The current research was carried out on a sample of 838 black South African children. A new model for age estimation in the said population was developed, to accurately determine the chronological age from dental development. A sample of 604 black South African children was used to test the validity of the method described by Demirjian. PMID:24974518
Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.
Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja
2016-07-19
Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using
Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages
Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja
2016-01-01
Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences
Age estimation of adults from dental radiographs.
Kvaal, S I; Kolltveit, K M; Thomsen, I O; Solheim, T
1995-07-28
Previous studies have shown that with advancing age the size of the dental pulp cavity is reduced as a result of secondary dentine deposit, so that measurements of this reduction can be used as an indicator of age. The aim of the present study was to find a method which could be used to estimate the chronological age of an adult from measurements of the size of the pulp on full mouth dental radiographs. The material consisted of periapical radiographs from 100 dental patients who had attended the clinics of the Dental Faculty in Oslo. The radiographs of six types of teeth from each jaw were measured: maxillary central and lateral incisors and second premolars, and mandibular lateral incisors, canines and first premolars. To compensate for differences in magnification and angulation on the radiographs, the following ratios were calculated: pulp/root length, pulp/tooth length, tooth/root length and pulp/root width at three different levels. Statistical analyses showed that Pearson's correlation coefficient between age and the different ratios for each type of tooth was significant, except for the ratio between tooth and root length, which was, therefore, excluded from further analysis. Principal component analyses were performed on all ratios, followed by regression analyses with age as dependent variable and the principal components as independent variables. The principal component analyses showed that only the two first of them had significant influence on age, and a good and easily calculated approximation to the first component was found to be the mean of all the ratios. A good approximation to the second principal component was found to be the difference between the mean of two width ratios and the mean of two length ratios, and these approximations of the first and second principal components were chosen as predictors in regression analyses with age as the dependent variable. The coefficient of determination (r2) for the estimation was strongest when the ratios
Using Dental Age to Estimate Chronological Age in Czech Children Aged 3-18 Years.
Ginzelová, Kristina; Dostálová, Taťjana; Eliášová, Hana; Vinšů, Alex; Buček, Antonín; Bučková, Michaela
2015-01-01
The Demirjian methods to determine dental age are based on analysis of orthopantograms. The dental age estimation is based on establishing the tooth development stages. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of estimation of dental age by Demirjian in the use of all of his four methods. 505 Czech healthy boys and girls aged 3 to 18 years were examined radiographically at the Department of Stomatology, Second Faculty of Medicine, Charles University in Prague. It was mentioned the factors of underlying diseases influence the accuracy of the dental age estimation. For statistical evaluation, descriptive statistics was used to compare deviations of the mean values of chronological and dental age in each age group. The resulting difference between dental age and chronological age is not significant in both genders only when using both Demirjian 7-teeth methods of 1973 and 1976. Therefore these may be most appropriately used for forensic age estimation. There are shown standard deviation differences in different countries. Demirjian's original 7-teeth method from 1973 and Demirjian's revised 4-teeth method from 1976 appear to be the best methods for calculating the dental age of healthy Czech children of both genders. PMID:26093668
A non-destructive dental method for age estimation.
Kvaal, S; Solheim, T
1994-06-01
Dental radiographs have rarely been used in dental age estimation methods for adults and the aim of this investigation was to derive formulae for age calculation based on measurements of teeth and their radiographs. Age-related changes were studied in 452 extracted, unsectioned incisors, canines and premolars. The length of the apical translucent zone and extent of the periodontal retraction were measured on the teeth while the pulp length and width as well as root length and width were measured on the radiographs and the ratios between the root and pulp measurements calculated. For all types of teeth significant, negative Pearson's correlation coefficients were found between age and the ratios between the pulp and the root width. In this study also, the correlation between age and the length of the apical translucent zone was weaker than expected. The periodontal retraction was significantly correlated with age in maxillary premolars alone. Multiple regression analyses showed inclusion of the ratio between the measurements of the pulp and the root on the radiographs for all teeth; the length of the apical translucency in five types; and periodontal retraction in only three types of teeth. The correlation coefficients ranged from r = 0.48 to r = 0.90 between the chronological and the calculated age using the formulae from this multiple regression study. The strongest coefficients were for premolars. These formulae may be recommended for use in odontological age estimations in forensic and archaeological cases where teeth are loose or can be extracted and where it is important that the teeth are not sectioned. PMID:9227083
Utilization of bone impedance for age estimation in postmortem cases.
Ishikawa, Noboru; Suganami, Hideki; Nishida, Atsushi; Miyamori, Daisuke; Kakiuchi, Yasuhiro; Yamada, Naotake; Wook-Cheol, Kim; Kubo, Toshikazu; Ikegaya, Hiroshi
2015-11-01
In the field of Forensic Medicine the number of unidentified cadavers has increased due to natural disasters and international terrorism. The age estimation is very important for identification of the victims. The degree of sagittal closure is one of such age estimation methods. However it is not widely accepted as a reliable method for age estimation. In this study, we have examined whether measuring impedance value (z-values) of the sagittal suture of the skull is related to the age in men and women and discussed the possibility to use bone impedance for age estimation. Bone impedance values increased with aging and decreased after the age of 64.5. Then we compared age estimation through the conventional visual method and the proposed bone impedance measurement technique. It is suggested that the bone impedance measuring technique may be of value to forensic science as a method of age estimation. PMID:26421720
Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts
Clark, E.L.
1994-09-01
Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given.
Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.
White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto
2016-01-01
Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age. PMID:27089506
Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas
Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto
2016-01-01
Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3–13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age. PMID:27089506
Estimating Neuronal Ageing with Hidden Markov Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Bing; Pham, Tuan D.
2011-06-01
Neuronal degeneration is widely observed in normal ageing, meanwhile the neurode-generative disease like Alzheimer's disease effects neuronal degeneration in a faster way which is considered as faster ageing. Early intervention of such disease could benefit subjects with potentials of positive clinical outcome, therefore, early detection of disease related brain structural alteration is required. In this paper, we propose a computational approach for modelling the MRI-based structure alteration with ageing using hidden Markov model. The proposed hidden Markov model based brain structural model encodes intracortical tissue/fluid distribution using discrete wavelet transformation and vector quantization. Further, it captures gray matter volume loss, which is capable of reflecting subtle intracortical changes with ageing. Experiments were carried out on healthy subjects to validate its accuracy and robustness. Results have shown its ability of predicting the brain age with prediction error of 1.98 years without training data, which shows better result than other age predition methods.
Comparison of several methods for estimating low speed stability derivatives
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fletcher, H. S.
1971-01-01
Methods presented in five different publications have been used to estimate the low-speed stability derivatives of two unpowered airplane configurations. One configuration had unswept lifting surfaces, the other configuration was the D-558-II swept-wing research airplane. The results of the computations were compared with each other, with existing wind-tunnel data, and with flight-test data for the D-558-II configuration to assess the relative merits of the methods for estimating derivatives. The results of the study indicated that, in general, for low subsonic speeds, no one text appeared consistently better for estimating all derivatives.
Impairment of age estimation from faces in Alzheimer's disease.
Moyse, Evelyne; Bastin, Christine; Salmon, Eric; Brédart, Serge
2015-01-01
A prerequisite for any function in social cognition is the perception and processing of social cues. Age estimation is a skill that is used in everyday life and is fundamental in social interactions. This study evaluated whether facial age estimation is impaired in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD). The current age of faces is known to have an impact on age estimation, and therefore stimuli belonging to different age groups (young, middle-aged, and older adults' faces) were used. As expected, an impairment of age estimation from faces was observed in mild to moderate AD patients. However, the profile of impairment depended on the age of faces and stage of the disease. Mild AD patients presented difficulties mainly in assessing the age of middle-aged adults. In moderate disease stage, these difficulties also affected the age estimation of young adult faces. Interestingly, AD patients remained relatively good at estimating the age of older adults' faces, compared to healthy controls. PMID:25589725
Simultaneous estimation of phase and its pth order derivatives
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kulkarni, Rishikesh; Rastogi, Pramod
2016-05-01
One unaddressed challenge in optical metrology has been the measurement of higher order derivatives of rough specimens subjected to loading. In this paper, we investigate an approach that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the phase and its higher order derivatives from a noisy interference field. The interference phase is represented as a weighted linear combination of linearly independent Fourier basis functions. The interference field is represented as a state space model with the weights of the basis functions as the elements of the state vector. These weights are accurately estimated by employing the extended Kalman filter. The interference phase and phase derivatives are subsequently computed using the estimated weights. Since the Fourier basis functions are infinitely differentiable, phase derivatives of any arbitrary order can be estimated. Simulation and experimental results are provided to substantiate the effectiveness of the proposed method in the presence of high noise.
Age at death estimation from bone histology in Malaysian males.
Nor, Faridah Mohd; Pastor, Robert F; Schutkowski, Holger
2014-10-01
Estimation of age from microscopic examination of human bone utilizes bone remodeling. This allows 2 regression equation to be determined in a specific population based on the variation in osteon turnover in different populations. The aim of this study was to provide age estimation for Malaysian males. Ground undecalcified cross sections were prepared from long limb bones of 50 deceased males aged between 21 and 78 years. Ten microstructural parameters were measured and subjected to multivariate regression analysis. Results showed that osteon count had the highest correlation with age (R = 0.43), and age was estimated to be within 10.94 years of the true value in 98% of males. Cross validation of the equation on 50 individuals showed close correspondence of true ages with estimated ages. Further studies are needed to validate and expand these results. PMID:24189643
Discrete derivative estimation in LISA Pathfinder data reduction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ferraioli, Luigi; Hueller, Mauro; Vitale, Stefano
2009-05-01
Data analysis for the LISA Technology package (LTP) experiment to be flown aboard the LISA Pathfinder mission requires the solution of the system dynamics for the calculation of the force acting on the test masses (TMs) starting from interferometer position data. The need for a solution to this problem has prompted us to implement a discrete time-domain derivative estimator suited for the LTP experiment requirements. We first report on the mathematical procedures for the definition of two methods; the first based on a parabolic fit approximation and the second based on a Taylor series expansion. These two methods are then generalized and incorporated into a more general class of five-point discrete derivative estimators. The same procedure employed for the second derivative can be applied to the estimation of the first derivative and of a data smoother allowing defining a class of simple five-point estimators for both. The performances of three particular realizations of the five-point second-derivative estimator are analyzed with simulated noisy data. This analysis pointed out that those estimators introducing large amount of high-frequency noise can determine systematic errors in the estimation of low-frequency noise levels.
Dental Age Estimation Helps Create a New Identity.
De Angelis, Danilo; Gibelli, Daniele; Fabbri, Paolo; Cattaneo, Cristina
2015-09-01
Age estimation involves the reconstruction of age by biological parameters such as skeletal and dental development in minors, or reduction of pulp chamber in adults, to gain indications concerning the chronological age of the person. In most cases, it is needed in forensic scenarios to verify if the supposed age of an individual is correct; in exceptional cases, age estimation is instead required by judicial authorities to create a new identity usually in persons who do not remember who they are.This article aims at reporting the case of J. who was found in 2005 with signs of amnesia because he did not remember his name and age. After several unsuccessful attempts at identifying him, the judicial authority decided to assign a new identity, which was to be constructed according to the real biological data of the individual. The help of a forensic pathologist and a forensic odontologist was then requested, and age estimation was reached by applying methods for adults based on the physiological reduction of pulp chamber. Dental age estimation yielded a final result of approximately 31 years, which was the new age assigned to the person.This article shows a peculiar application of dental age estimation, which can be used not only to ascertain or deny supposed age, but is sometimes needed to create a new identity. PMID:26079404
Derivative Estimation from Marginally Sampled Vector Point Functions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Doswell, Charles A., III; Caracena, Fernando
1988-01-01
Several aspects of the problem of estimating derivatives from an irregular, discrete sample of vector observations are considered. It is shown that one must properly account for transformations from one vector representation to another. if one is to preserve the original properties of a vector point function during such a transformation (e.g., from u and v wind components to speed and direction). A simple technique for calculating the linear kinematic properties of a vector point function (translation, cud, divergence, and deformation) is derived for any noncolinear triad of points. This technique is equivalent to a calculation done using line integrals, but is much more efficient.It is shown that estimating derivatives by mapping the vector components onto a grid and taking finite differences is not equivalent to estimating the derivatives and mapping those estimates onto a grid, whenever the original observations are taken on a discrete, irregular network. This problem is particularly important whenever the data network is sparse relative to the wavelength of the phenomena. It is shown that conventional mapping/differencing fail to use all the information in the data, as well. Some suggesstions for minimizing the errors in derivative estimation for general (nonlinear) vector point functions are discussed.
Precision of two methods for estimating age from burbot otoliths
Edwards, W.H.; Stapanian, M.A.; Stoneman, A.T.
2011-01-01
Lower reproductive success and older age structure are associated with many burbot (Lota lota L.) populations that are declining or of conservation concern. Therefore, reliable methods for estimating the age of burbot are critical for effective assessment and management. In Lake Erie, burbot populations have declined in recent years due to the combined effects of an aging population (&xmacr; = 10 years in 2007) and extremely low recruitment since 2002. We examined otoliths from burbot (N = 91) collected in Lake Erie in 2007 and compared the estimates of burbot age by two agers, each using two established methods (cracked-and-burned and thin-section) of estimating ages from burbot otoliths. One ager was experienced at estimating age from otoliths, the other was a novice. Agreement (precision) between the two agers was higher for the thin-section method, particularly at ages 6–11 years, based on linear regression analyses and 95% confidence intervals. As expected, precision between the two methods was higher for the more experienced ager. Both agers reported that the thin sections offered clearer views of the annuli, particularly near the margins on otoliths from burbot ages ≥8. Slides for the thin sections required some costly equipment and more than 2 days to prepare. In contrast, preparing the cracked-and-burned samples was comparatively inexpensive and quick. We suggest use of the thin-section method for estimating the age structure of older burbot populations.
Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas
2016-01-01
Purpose This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. Materials and Methods The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Results Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. Conclusion The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. PMID:27051633
Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images
Tokola, Ryan A; Bolme, David S; Ricanek, Karl; Barstow, Del R; Boehnen, Chris Bensing
2014-01-01
We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-class SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.
Age estimation and validation for South Pacific albacore Thunnus alalunga.
Farley, J H; Williams, A J; Clear, N P; Davies, C R; Nicol, S J
2013-05-01
Validated estimates of age are presented for albacore Thunnus alalunga, sampled from a large part of the south-western Pacific Ocean, based on counts of annual opaque growth zones from transverse sections of otoliths. Counts of daily increments were used to estimate the location of the first opaque growth zone, which was completed before the first assumed birthday. The periodicity of opaque zones was estimated by marginal increment analysis and an oxytetracycline mark-recapture experiment. Both validation methods indicated that opaque zones formed over the austral summer and were completed by autumn to winter (April to August). The direct comparison of age estimates obtained from otoliths and dorsal-fin spines of the same fish indicated bias, which was assumed to be due to poor increment clarity and resorption of early growth zones in spines, resulting in imprecise age estimates. As such, age estimates from otoliths are considered to be more accurate than those from spines for T. alalunga. This is consistent with results for a growing number of tropical and temperate tuna Thunnini species. It is recommend that validated counts of annual growth zones from sectioned otoliths is used as the preferred method for estimating age-based parameters for assessment and management advice for these important stocks. PMID:23639152
Age-dependent forest carbon sink: Estimation via inverse modeling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Tao; Shi, Peijun; Jia, Gensuo; Dai, Yongjiu; Zhao, Xiang; Shangguan, Wei; Du, Ling; Wu, Hao; Luo, Yiqi
2015-12-01
Forests have been recognized to sequester a substantial amount of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and time course of the C sink. Revealing the intrinsic relationship between forest age and C sink is crucial for reducing uncertainties in prediction of forest C sink potential. In this study, we developed a stepwise data assimilation approach to combine a process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem Regional model, observations from multiple sources, and stochastic sampling to inversely estimate carbon cycle parameters including carbon sink at different forest ages for evergreen needle-leaved forests in China. The new approach is effective to estimate age-dependent parameter of maximal light-use efficiency (R2 = 0.99) and, accordingly, can quantify a relationship between forest age and the vegetation and soil C sinks. The estimated ecosystem C sink increases rapidly with age, peaks at 0.451 kg C m-2 yr-1 at age 22 years (ranging from 0.421 to 0.465 kg C m-2 yr-1), and gradually decreases thereafter. The dynamic patterns of C sinks in vegetation and soil are significantly different. C sink in vegetation first increases rapidly with age and then decreases. C sink in soil, however, increases continuously with age; it acts as a C source when the age is less than 20 years, after which it acts as a sink. For the evergreen needle-leaved forest, the highest C sink efficiency (i.e., C sink per unit net primary productivity) is approximately 60%, with age between 11 and 43 years. Overall, the inverse estimation of carbon cycle parameters can make reasonable estimates of age-dependent C sequestration in forests.
Robust wave-front estimation from multiple directional derivatives.
Legarda-Sáenz, R; Rivera, M; Rodríguez-Vera, R; Trujillo-Schiaffino, G
2000-08-01
A quadratic cost functional for computing an estimate of a wave front from multiple directional derivatives is presented. This functional is robust to noise and is specially suited for moiré deflectometry, Ronchi testing, and lateral shearing interferometry. PMID:18064280
Estimating Dynamical Systems: Derivative Estimation Hints from Sir Ronald A. Fisher
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Deboeck, Pascal R.
2010-01-01
The fitting of dynamical systems to psychological data offers the promise of addressing new and innovative questions about how people change over time. One method of fitting dynamical systems is to estimate the derivatives of a time series and then examine the relationships between derivatives using a differential equation model. One common…
Analysis of age-at-death estimation through the use of pubic symphyseal data.
Kimmerle, Erin H; Konigsberg, Lyle W; Jantz, Richard L; Baraybar, Jose Pablo
2008-05-01
The question of whether age parameters derived from an American population will reliably estimate age-at-death for East European skeletal populations is important since the ability to accurately estimate an individual's age-at-death hinges on what standard is used. A reference sample of identified individuals with known ages-at-death from the regions of the Former Yugoslavia (n = 861) is used to determine the age structure of victims and serves as the prior in the Bayesian analysis. Pubic symphyseal data in the manners of Todd (Am J Phys Anthropol, 3 [1920], 285; Am J Phys Anthropol, 4 [1921], 1) and Suchey-Brooks (Am J Phys Anthropol, 80 [1986], 167) were collected for n = 296 Balkan males and females and for n = 2078 American males and females. An analysis of deviance is calculated using an improvement chi-square to test for population variation in the aging processes of American and East European populations using proportional odds probit regression. When males and females are treated separately, there is a significant association among females and the population (df = 1, chi-square likelihood ratio = 15.071, p = 0.001). New age estimates for Balkan populations are provided and are based on the calculated age distribution from the Gompertz-Makeham hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density regions for each symphyseal phase are provided. PMID:18471198
Estimation of gestational age from gall-bladder length.
Udaykumar, K; Udaykumar, Padmaja; Nagesh, K R
2016-01-01
Establishing a precise duration of gestation is vital in situations such as infanticide and criminal abortions. The present study attempted to estimate the gestational age of the foetus from gall-bladder length. Foetuses of various gestational age groups were dissected, and the length of the gall bladder was measured. The results were analysed, and a substantial degree of correlation was statistically confirmed. This novel method is helpful when the foetus is fragmented, putrefied or eviscerated, where this method can be used as an additional parameter to improve the accuracy of foetal age estimation. PMID:25990829
Estimation of Stratospheric Age Spectrum from Chemical Tracers
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Polansky, Brian
2005-01-01
We have developed a technique to diagnose the stratospheric age spectrum and estimate the mean age of air using the distributions of at least four constituents with different photochemical lifetimes. We demonstrate that the technique works using a 3D CTM and then apply the technique to UMS CLAES January 1993 observations of CFC11, CFC12, CH4 and N2O. Our results are generally in agreement with mean age of air estimates from the chemical model and from observations of SF6 and CO2; however, the mean age estimates show an intrusion of very young tropical air into the mid-latitude stratosphere. This feature is consistent with mixing of high N20 air out of the tropics during the westerly phase of the QBO.
Age estimation for forensic purposes in Italy: ethical issues.
Focardi, Martina; Pinchi, Vilma; De Luca, Federica; Norelli, Gian-Aristide
2014-05-01
Age assessment in children and young adults is a relevant medicolegal issue due to the gradual increase of persons devoid of proper identification documents in European countries. Because of the illegal immigration and growing crime rates among children and adolescents, age estimation for forensic purposes is often required. The scientific research and the extensive experience of forensic experts in the last decades focused on the use of radiographic methods addressed to evaluate the degree of skeletal or dental development as the most accurate parameters to estimate the chronological age of children and adolescents. This paper analyzes the ethical issues related to age estimation procedures based on radiographic methods, showing how the ethical principles of beneficence, nonmalevolence, justice, and autonomy may be guaranteed during the execution of the age assessment in forensic practice. The procedure might be conducted in accordance with international guidelines and protocols, though they need a higher homogenization and standardization. A strong collaboration between various scientific societies of professionals (forensic odontologists, forensic pathologists, forensic anthropologist, radiologists, pediatricians, and psychologists), who have been involved in age estimation for years, is needed to reach this goal. PMID:24633466
Influence of sectioning location on age estimates from common carp dorsal spines
Watkins, Carson J.; Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael
2015-01-01
Dorsal spines have been shown to provide precise age estimates for Common CarpCyprinus carpio and are commonly used by management agencies to gain information on Common Carp populations. However, no previous studies have evaluated variation in the precision of age estimates obtained from different sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. We evaluated the precision, relative readability, and distribution of age estimates obtained from various sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. Dorsal spines from 192 Common Carp were sectioned at the base (section 1), immediately distal to the basal section (section 2), and at 25% (section 3), 50% (section 4), and 75% (section 5) of the total length of the dorsal spine. The exact agreement and within-1-year agreement among readers was highest and the coefficient of variation lowest for section 2. In general, age estimates derived from sections 2 and 3 had similar age distributions and displayed the highest concordance in age estimates with section 1. Our results indicate that sections taken at ≤ 25% of the total length of the dorsal spine can be easily interpreted and provide precise estimates of Common Carp age. The greater consistency in age estimates obtained from section 2 indicates that by using a standard sectioning location, fisheries scientists can expect age-based estimates of population metrics to be more comparable and thus more useful for understanding Common Carp population dynamics.
Dental age estimation standards for a Western Australian population.
Karkhanis, Shalmira; Mack, Peter; Franklin, Daniel
2015-12-01
Age estimation in the juvenile skeleton primarily relies on the assessment of the degree of dental and skeletal development relative to full maturity. The timing of the mineralization and eruption of the teeth is a sequential process that, compared to skeletal growth and development, is less affected by extrinsic influences such as nutrition and/or chronic illness. Accordingly, radiographic visualization and analysis of different tooth formation stages are the foundation for a number of widely applied age estimation standards. Presently, however, there is a relative paucity of contemporary dental age estimation standards for a Western Australian population. To that end, the aim of the present study is to develop statistically quantified radiographic age estimation standards for a Western Australian juvenile population. A total of 392 digital orthopantomograms (202 male and 190 female) of Western Australian individuals are analyzed. Following, Moorrees et al. (J. Dent. Res. 42 (1963a) 490-502; Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 21 (1963) 205-213), dental development and root resorption was assessed. Alveolar eruption was analyzed following Bengston (Northwest Univ. Bull. 35 (1935) 3-9). Stages of dental development were used to formulate a series of age estimation polynomial regression models; prediction accuracy (±0.998 to 2.183 years) is further validated using a cross-validation (holdout) sample of 30 film orthopantomograms. A visual atlas of dental development and eruption was subsequently designed for the pooled sex sample. The standards presented here represent a non-invasive and statistically quantified approach for accurate dental age estimation in Western Australian juvenile individuals. PMID:26344558
Statistical estimation of mineral age by K-Ar method
Vistelius, A.B.; Drubetzkoy, E.R.; Faas, A.V. )
1989-11-01
Statistical estimation of age of {sup 40}Ar/{sup 40}K ratios may be considered a result of convolution of uniform and normal distributions with different weights for different minerals. Data from Gul'shad Massif (Nearbalkhash, Kazakhstan, USSR) indicate that {sup 40}Ar/{sup 40}K ratios reflecting the intensity of geochemical processes can be resolved using convolutions. Loss of {sup 40}Ar in biotites is shown whereas hornblende retained the original content of {sup 40}Ar throughout the geological history of the massif. Results demonstrate that different estimation methods must be used for different minerals and different rocks when radiometric ages are employed for dating.
A Bayesian estimation of the helioseismic solar age
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonanno, A.; Fröhlich, H.-E.
2015-08-01
Context. The helioseismic determination of the solar age has been a subject of several studies because it provides us with an independent estimation of the age of the solar system. Aims: We present the Bayesian estimates of the helioseismic age of the Sun, which are determined by means of calibrated solar models that employ different equations of state and nuclear reaction rates. Methods: We use 17 frequency separation ratios r02(n) = (νn,l = 0-νn-1,l = 2)/(νn,l = 1-νn-1,l = 1) from 8640 days of low-ℓBiSON frequencies and consider three likelihood functions that depend on the handling of the errors of these r02(n) ratios. Moreover, we employ the 2010 CODATA recommended values for Newton's constant, solar mass, and radius to calibrate a large grid of solar models spanning a conceivable range of solar ages. Results: It is shown that the most constrained posterior distribution of the solar age for models employing Irwin EOS with NACRE reaction rates leads to t⊙ = 4.587 ± 0.007 Gyr, while models employing the Irwin EOS and Adelberger, et al. (2011, Rev. Mod. Phys., 83, 195) reaction rate have t⊙ = 4.569 ± 0.006 Gyr. Implementing OPAL EOS in the solar models results in reduced evidence ratios (Bayes factors) and leads to an age that is not consistent with the meteoritic dating of the solar system. Conclusions: An estimate of the solar age that relies on an helioseismic age indicator such as r02(n) turns out to be essentially independent of the type of likelihood function. However, with respect to model selection, abandoning any information concerning the errors of the r02(n) ratios leads to inconclusive results, and this stresses the importance of evaluating the trustworthiness of error estimates.
Objective measurement of shade color in age estimation
Vaidya, Sharad; Ahuja, Nitin; Bajaj, Puneet; Kapoor, Charu; Sabarwal, Robin; Rajpal, Karan
2015-01-01
Introduction: Age estimation is an important subspecialty of forensic medicine. Dental hard tissues are highly resistant to degradation and putrefaction. Enamel is translucent and varies in color from light yellow to grey white. The color of the teeth has been reported to be affected by chronological age. Enamel color may also depend on environmental factors viz. diet, occupational habits, vitamin deficiencies, fluoride level in drinking water etc., It has been found that color changes in dentin vary from white to yellow. Studies have been done to measure the dentin color for age estimation. Aim: To find a correlation between the enamel color and chronological age and secondly to estimate the age of an individual from enamel color. Material and Methods: A total of 300 patients visiting the outpatient department of oral medicine and radiology were selected. Out of those, 150 were men and 150 women. The patients were divided into V groups based on the age. A thorough case history was taken for all the patients. Maxillary Central and Lateral incisor was used for the estimation of shade. The enamel color was evaluated using a VITA classical shade guide. Statistical Analysis: Data were exported to an Excel spread sheet and statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS. Linear regression analysis was used to find correlations between age and enamel shade. Results: In the group 1 and 2 i.e. from 15 to 36 years, the shades A 2 and B 2 (reddish hue) was found to be most common. While in the group 3 and 4, shades ranged from A 3 to B 3 (brownish to yellowish hue). In the patients above 59 years i.e. group 5 the enamel shade with greyish hue was found to be most common. Conclusion: Age determination using enamel color can be tried in forensic cases in the identification of individuals with no birth records. PMID:26816455
Estimation of Stability and Control Derivatives of an F-15
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Smith, Mark; Moes, Tim
2006-01-01
A technique for real-time estimation of stability and control derivatives (derivatives of moment coefficients with respect to control-surface deflection angles) was used to support a flight demonstration of a concept of an indirect-adaptive intelligent flight control system (IFCS). Traditionally, parameter identification, including estimation of stability and control derivatives, is done post-flight. However, for the indirect-adaptive IFCS concept, parameter identification is required during flight so that the system can modify control laws for a damaged aircraft. The flight demonstration was carried out on a highly modified F-15 airplane (see Figure 1). The main objective was to estimate the stability and control derivatives of the airplane in nearly real time. A secondary goal was to develop a system to automatically assess the quality of the results, so as to be able to tell a learning neural network which data to use. Parameter estimation was performed by use of Fourier-transform regression (FTR) a technique developed at NASA Langley Research Center. FTR is an equation- error technique that operates in the frequency domain. Data are put into the frequency domain by use of a recursive Fourier transform for a discrete frequency set. This calculation simplifies many subsequent calculations, removes biases, and automatically filters out data beyond the chosen frequency range. FTR as applied here was tailored to work with pilot inputs, which produce correlated surface positions that prevent accurate parameter estimates, by replacing half the derivatives with predicted values. FTR was also set up to work only on a recent window of data, to accommodate changes in flight condition. A system of confidence measures was developed to identify quality-parameter estimates that a learning neural network could use. This system judged the estimates primarily on the basis of their estimated variances and of the level of aircraft response. The resulting FTR system was implemented
Karkhanis, Shalmira; Mack, Peter; Franklin, Daniel
2014-02-01
In the present global socio-political scenario, an increasing demand exists for age estimation in living persons, such as refugees and asylum seekers, who seldom have any documentation for proof of identity. Age estimation in the living poses significant challenges because the methods need to be non-invasive, accurate and ethically viable. Methods based on the analysis of the pulp chamber are recommended for age estimation in living adults. There is, however, a paucity of studies of this nature and population specific standards in Western Australia. The aim of the present study is therefore, to test the reliability and applicability of the method developed by Kvaal et al. (1995) for the purpose of developing age estimation standards for an adult Western Australian population. A total of 279 digital orthopantomograms (143 female; and 136 male) of Australian individuals were analysed. A subset of the total sample (50) was removed as a cross-validation (holdout) sample. Following the method described in Kvaal et al. (1995), length and width measurements of the tooth and pulp chamber were acquired in maxillary central and lateral incisors; second premolars, mandibular lateral incisors; canines and first premolars. Those measurements were then used to calculate a series of ratios (length and width), which were subsequently used to formulate age estimation regression models. The most accurate model based on a single tooth was for the maxillary central incisor (SEE ±9.367 years), followed by the maxillary second premolar (SEE ±9.525 years). Regression models based on the measurement of multiple teeth improved age prediction accuracy (SEE ±7.963 years). The regression models presented here have expected accuracy rates comparable (if not higher than) to established skeletal morphoscopic methods. This method, therefore, offers a statistically quantified methodological approach for forensic age estimation in Western Australian adults. PMID:24411636
Ultrasound Algorithm Derivation for Soil Moisture Content Estimation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Belisle, W.R.; Metzl, R.; Choi, J.; Aggarwal, M. D.; Coleman, T.
1997-01-01
Soil moisture content can be estimated by evaluating the velocity at which sound waves travel through a known volume of solid material. This research involved the development of three soil algorithms relating the moisture content to the velocity at which sound waves moved through dry and moist media. Pressure and shear wave propagation equations were used in conjunction with soil property descriptions to derive algorithms appropriate for describing the effects of moisture content variation on the velocity of sound waves in soils with and without complete soil pore water volumes, An elementary algorithm was used to estimate soil moisture contents ranging from 0.08 g/g to 0.5 g/g from sound wave velocities ranging from 526 m/s to 664 m/s. Secondary algorithms were also used to estimate soil moisture content from sound wave velocities through soils with pores that were filled predominantly with air or water.
A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments
Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.
2009-01-01
, since these age models are better suited to the statistical properties of typical single-grain and multi-grain single-aliquot De datasets. However, the unique error properties of modern-age samples, combined with the problems of calculating natural logarithms of negative or zero-Gy De values, mean that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models currently offer the most suitable means of deriving accurate burial dose estimates for very young and modern-age samples. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Ultrasonographic estimation of prostate size in normal dogs and relationship to bodyweight and age.
Atalan, G; Holt, P E; Barr, F J
1999-03-01
A study was undertaken to establish the ranges of prostate dimensions, weight and volume in mature normal dogs and thus provide information which would allow differentiation from normality of size changes associated with disease. The study was performed on 154 healthy adult male entire dogs. Each prostate was imaged ultrasonographically and standard longitudinal and transverse sections were obtained. Prostate length (L), depth on longitudinal (DL) and transverse sections (DT) and width (W) were measured. Prostatic volume and weight were estimated according to formulae derived previously. There were statistically significant correlations between bodyweight or age and L, DL, DT and W. There were also significant correlations between estimated prostatic weight or volume and bodyweight, age, L, DL, DT and W. Formulae were derived to express the relationships between prostate size (weight or volume) and age or bodyweight. PMID:10200922
Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios
Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.
2008-01-01
Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.
MODIS-derived Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates for Operational Hydrologic Modeling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, J.; Hogue, T.
2005-12-01
The current SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), used by the National Weather Service, is the primarily model for hydrologic forecasting across the United States. Potential evapotranspiration (PET), one of the required inputs, remains rather simplistic. The model traditionally uses a regional pan evaporation estimate due to the difficulty in acquiring more sophisticated measurements. This study explores an alternative methodology using only remote sensing information to capture the monthly mean distribution of potential evapotranspiration (PET) for the SAC-SMA model. We apply a simple scheme proposed by Jiang and Islam (2005) to estimate the net radiation and estimate PET within the context of the Priestley-Taylor equation using data gathered from the MODIS Terra platform. PET estimates from the MODIS data are compared with those derived from Oklahoma Mesonet ground-based measurements and traditional pan evaporation estimates. Preliminary results will be presented for the Illinois River basin at Watts (OK) identified as part of the National Weather Service's Distributed Modeling Intercomparison Project (DMIP). The resultant streamflow simulations will illustrate the sensitivity of the SAC-SMA model to potential evaporation inputs from different sources and the possibility of the application of a stand-alone PET method for un-gauged basins.
Accurate Satellite-Derived Estimates of Tropospheric Ozone Radiative Forcing
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Joiner, Joanna; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Vasilkov, Alexander P.; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Levelt, Pieternel F.
2008-01-01
Estimates of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenically-produced tropospheric O3 are derived primarily from models. Here, we use tropospheric ozone and cloud data from several instruments in the A-train constellation of satellites as well as information from the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System to accurately estimate the instantaneous radiative forcing from tropospheric O3 for January and July 2005. We improve upon previous estimates of tropospheric ozone mixing ratios from a residual approach using the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) by incorporating cloud pressure information from OMI. Since we cannot distinguish between natural and anthropogenic sources with the satellite data, our estimates reflect the total forcing due to tropospheric O3. We focus specifically on the magnitude and spatial structure of the cloud effect on both the shortand long-wave radiative forcing. The estimates presented here can be used to validate present day O3 radiative forcing produced by models.
Secondary Forest Age and Tropical Forest Biomass Estimation Using TM
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nelson, R. F.; Kimes, D. S.; Salas, W. A.; Routhier, M.
1999-01-01
The age of secondary forests in the Amazon will become more critical with respect to the estimation of biomass and carbon budgets as tropical forest conversion continues. Multitemporal Thematic Mapper data were used to develop land cover histories for a 33,000 Square kM area near Ariquemes, Rondonia over a 7 year period from 1989-1995. The age of the secondary forest, a surrogate for the amount of biomass (or carbon) stored above-ground, was found to be unimportant in terms of biomass budget error rates in a forested TM scene which had undergone a 20% conversion to nonforest/agricultural cover types. In such a situation, the 80% of the scene still covered by primary forest accounted for over 98% of the scene biomass. The difference between secondary forest biomass estimates developed with and without age information were inconsequential relative to the estimate of biomass for the entire scene. However, in futuristic scenarios where all of the primary forest has been converted to agriculture and secondary forest (55% and 42% respectively), the ability to age secondary forest becomes critical. Depending on biomass accumulation rate assumptions, scene biomass budget errors on the order of -10% to +30% are likely if the age of the secondary forests are not taken into account. Single-date TM imagery cannot be used to accurately age secondary forests into single-year classes. A neural network utilizing TM band 2 and three TM spectral-texture measures (bands 3 and 5) predicted secondary forest age over a range of 0-7 years with an RMSE of 1.59 years and an R(Squared) (sub actual vs predicted) = 0.37. A proposal is made, based on a literature review, to use satellite imagery to identify general secondary forest age groups which, within group, exhibit relatively constant biomass accumulation rates.
Age estimation from the acetabulum in South African black males.
Botha, D; Pretorius, S; Myburgh, J; Steyn, M
2016-05-01
Anthropologists are constantly seeking to improve methods for age estimation in the human skeleton. A new method was introduced about a decade ago that assesses the morphological changes that take place in the acetabulum as an individual ages. The pelvis is usually well preserved in forensic cases, which makes this method potentially valuable as an adult age indicator. This method employs seven variables, each with its own set of phases. To test the accuracy and reliability of this method, 100 black South African male acetabula from the Pretoria Bone Collection were assessed based on the criteria described in the original study. Box plots and transition curves were constructed to establish whether progression with age was visible and how it could possibly be modelled. Inter-observer reliability was also assessed by making use of Fleiss's Kappa statistic. Five specimens were used as out-of-sample examples for which maximum likelihood (point) estimates were calculated. The results demonstrated that middle and older individuals' age estimates were vastly underestimated. Inter-observer repeatability was poor, which suggested that the classification system most likely needs to be modified. A discussion and recommendation is given for improvement of reliability and repeatability of this method. PMID:26662190
Fetal age estimation using MSCT scans of deciduous tooth germs.
Minier, Marie; Maret, Delphine; Dedouit, Fabrice; Vergnault, Marion; Mokrane, Fathima-Zohra; Rousseau, Hervé; Adalian, Pascal; Telmon, Norbert; Rougé, Daniel
2014-01-01
Evaluation of fetal age is an essential element in many fields such as anthropology, odontology, paleopathology, and forensic sciences. This study examines the correlation between fetal age, femoral diaphyseal length (considered as the gold standard), and deciduous tooth germs of fetuses aged 22 to 40 weeks amenorrhea (WA) based on computed tomography (MSCT) reconstructions. Qualitative and quantitative studies of femoral and deciduous tooth germ lengths were performed on 81 fetuses (39 females and 42 males). R software was used for statistical analyses. Intra-observer and inter-observer variabilities and the interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were calculated. Correlation coefficients (R (2)) and linear regression equations were calculated. Intra- and inter-observer variabilities were very satisfactory (intra-observer ICC ≥ 0.96, inter-observer ICC ≥ 0.95). Femoral length was significantly correlated with age (R (2) = 0.9). The correlation coefficient between age and height, width, and dental volume was R (2) ≥ 0.73. Tooth germs were good indicators of fetal age. Our method appears to be reliable and reproducible, and the results of this study agreed with those of the literature. The dental formula provided a precise estimation of fetal age between 25 and 32 WA. Tooth germs were reliable indicators of fetal age, and multislice computed tomography was shown to be an innovative and reliable technology for this purpose. PMID:23828625
Conventional versus digital approach for measuring dentin translucency in forensic age estimation
Chopra, Varun; Thodasam, Gopal; Ahmad, Zeeshan Heera; Singh, Simranjit; Rajawat, Indresh; Gupta, Sonal
2015-01-01
Background: Root dentine translucency remains the method of choice providing the most accurate results for age estimation. Conventionally, translucency is measured using calipers. In recent times, computer-based methods are proposed, which require the use of custom-built software programs. Aims and Objectives: The aim was to use a digital method to measure dentinal translucency on sectioned teeth and to compare digital measurements to conventionally obtained translucency measurements. Materials and Methods: A total of 200 extracted permanent teeth were collected and were sectioned to a thickness of 250 μm. Translucency measurements were obtained using the digital method and compared with those obtained using a caliper. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both methods (P < 0.001), although marginally higher correlation was observed for the conventional method (r = 0.612). Application of derived linear regression equations on an independent sample (n = 25) suggested that conventional approach is marginally better in estimating age to within 5 years of the actual age, both the methods are similar in assessing age within 5-10 years of the actual age, and digital approach is marginally better in estimating age beyond 10 years of actual age. Conclusion: The translucency measurements obtained by the two methods were identical, with no clear superiority of one method over the other. PMID:25810651
Estimation of Rotary Stability Derivatives at Subsonic and Transonic Speeds
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tobak, Murray; Lessing, Henry C.
1961-01-01
The first part of this paper pertains to the estimation of subsonic rotary stability derivatives of wings. The unsteady potential flow problem is solved by a superposition of steady flow solutions. Numerical results for the damping coefficients of triangular wings are presented as functions of aspect ratio and Mach number, and are compared with experimental results over the Mach number range 0 to 1. In the second part, experimental results are used. to point out a close correlation between the nonlinear variations with angle of attack of the static pitching-moment curve slope and the damping-in-pitch coefficient. The underlying basis for the correlation is found as a result of an analysis in which the indicial function concept and. the principle of super-position are adapted to apply to the nonlinear problem. The form of the result suggests a method of estimating nonlinear damping coefficients from results of static wind-tunnel measurements.
Relationship Between Mitochondrial DNA Mutations and Aging. Estimation of Age-at-death.
Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H
2016-04-01
Some studies have pointed to the relationship between mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations and age in different tissues, which are potentially interesting in aging research and in forensic identification because they could help to improve the estimation of age-at-death. The present study aims to evaluate the mutations in mtDNA from dentin and pulp and their relation with age. Healthy erupted third molars were extracted from individuals from two Spanish populations, aged 20-70. When analyzing the amplification of hypervariable region 2 of the mtDNA by real-time polymerase chain reaction, a negative strong linear correlation was found between the mtDNA amplification and age in dentin from both populations. In contrast, a significant correlation between mtDNA amplification and age in pulp was not discovered, probably due to the majority of the mitochondria are placed in dentin. A difference in mtDNA damage between these two populations was also detected, indicating the role of ancestry as a component. The findings from this research enrich the current studies related to aging and mitochondrial damage and provide a new quantitative tool for estimating the age-at-death that, in combination with traditional age markers, could improve identification accuracy in forensic cases. PMID:26286606
A method for estimating age of Danish medieval sub-adults based on long bone length.
Primeau, Charlotte; Friis, Laila; Sejrsen, Birgitte; Lynnerup, Niels
2012-07-01
The preferred method for aging archaeological sub-adult skeletons is by dental examination. In cases where no dental records are available, age estimation may be performed according to epiphyseal union, skeletal elements or diaphyseal lengths. Currently no data have been produced specifically for aging archaeological Danish sub-adults from the medieval period based on diaphyseal lengths. The problem with using data on Danish samples, which have been derived from a different population, is the possibility of skewing age estimates. In this study 58 Danish archaeological sub-adults were examined, aged from approximately six years to twenty-one years. The samples were aged according to two dental methods: Haavikko and Ubelaker. Regression formulae were constructed for aging according to their diaphyseal lengths both for individual long bones and combinations of upper and lower long bones. This study indicated that with the regression formulae developed, estimation of age can be done with reasonable results on Danish sub-adults. The Danish data were then compared to data from a different archaeological sample and a modern sample. It showed that the modern data indicated a consistently lower age compared to this sample which increased until reaching a maximum of nearly five years and six months. When comparing the archaeological data to this study, the growth profile crossed over at 12.5 years with a maximum age difference before the cross point of two years and three months lower for the archaeological data. After the cross point there was a maximum difference of three years and four months higher for the archaeological data. This study has shown the importance of using data for age estimation for archaeological material which has been developed specifically for that population. In addition it has presented a possible solution for Danish sub-adult material when dental material is not available. PMID:22928354
Estimating carbon stocks based on forest volume-age relationship
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hangnan, Y.; Lee, W.; Son, Y.; Kwak, D.; Nam, K.; Moonil, K.; Taesung, K.
2012-12-01
This research attempted to estimate potential change of forest carbon stocks between 2010 and 2110 in South Korea, using the forest cover map and National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Allometric functions (logistic regression models) of volume-age relationships were developed to estimate carbon stock change during upcoming 100 years for Pinus densiflora, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus rigida, Larix kaempferi,and Quercus spp. The current forest volume was estimated with the developed regression model and 4th forest cover map. The future volume was predicted by developed volume-age models with adding n years to current age. As a result, we found that the total forest volume would increase from 126.89 m^3/ha to 246.61 m^3/ha and the carbon stocks would increase from 90.55 Mg C ha^(-1) to 174.62 Mg C ha^(-1) during 100 years when current forest remains unchanged. The carbon stocks would increase by approximately 0.84 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1), which has high value if considering other northern countries' (Canada, Russia, China) -0.10 ~ 0.28 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1) in pervious study. This can be attributed to the fact that mixed forest and bamboo forest in this study did not considered. Moreover, it must be influenced by that the change of carbon stocks was estimated without the consideration of mortality, thinning, and tree species' change in this study. ;
Age estimation of bloodstains using smartphones and digital image analysis.
Thanakiatkrai, Phuvadol; Yaodam, Alisa; Kitpipit, Thitika
2013-12-10
Recent studies on bloodstains have focused on determining the time since deposition of bloodstains, which can provide useful temporal information to forensic investigations. This study is the first to use smartphone cameras in combination with a truly low-cost illumination system as a tool to estimate the age of bloodstains. Bloodstains were deposited on various substrates and photographed with a smartphone camera. Three smartphones (Samsung Galaxy S Plus, Apple iPhone 4, and Apple iPad 2) were compared. The environmental effects - temperature, humidity, light exposure, and anticoagulant - on the bloodstain age estimation process were explored. The color values from the digital images were extracted and correlated with time since deposition. Magenta had the highest correlation (R(2)=0.966) and was used in subsequent experiments. The Samsung Galaxy S Plus was the most suitable smartphone as its magenta decreased exponentially with increasing time and had highest repeatability (low variation within and between pictures). The quantifiable color change observed is consistent with well-established hemoglobin denaturation process. Using a statistical classification technique called Random Forests™, we could predict bloodstain age accurately up to 42 days with an error rate of 12%. Additionally, the age of forty blind stains were all correctly predicted, and 83% of mock casework samples were correctly classified. No within- and between-person variations were observed (p>0.05), while smartphone camera, temperature, humidity, and substrate color influenced the age determination process in different ways. Our technique provides a cheap, rapid, easy-to-use, and truly portable alternative to more complicated analysis using specialized equipment, e.g. spectroscopy and HPLC. No training is necessary with our method, and we envision a smartphone application that could take user inputs of environmental factors and provide an accurate estimate of bloodstain age. PMID:24314532
Estimating the Age Distribution of Oceanic Dissolved Organic Carbon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Follett, C. L.; Forney, D. C.; Repeta, D.; Rothman, D.
2010-12-01
Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a large, ubiquitous component of open ocean water at all depths and impacts atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at both short and long timescales. It is currently believed that oceanic DOC contains a multi-thousand-year-old refractory deep-water component which is mixed with a young labile component in surface waters. Unfortunately, the only evidence for this comes from a few isolated depth profiles of both DOC concentration and bulk radiocarbon. Although the profile data is consistent with a two-component mixing model, directly separating the two components has proven to be a challenge. We explore the validity of the two component mixing model by directly estimating the age distribution of oceanic DOC. The two-component model suggests that the age distribution is composed of two distinct peaks. In order to obtain an estimate of the age distribution we first record changes in both concentration and percent radiocarbon as a sample is oxidized under ultra-violet radiation [1]. We formulate a mathematical model relating the age distribution to these changes, assuming that they result from components of different radiocarbon age and UV-reactivity. This allows us to numerically invert the data and estimate the age distribution. We apply our procedure to DOC samples collected from three distinct depths (50, 500, and 2000 meters) in the north-central Pacific Ocean. [1] S.R. Beaupre, E.R.M. Druffel, and S. Griffin. A low-blank photochemical extraction system for concentration and isotopic analyses of marine dissolved organic carbon. Limnol. Oceanogr. Methods, 5:174-184, 2007.
Psychophysical estimation of speed discrimination. II. Aging effects
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Raghuram, Aparna; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan; Khanna, Ritu
2005-10-01
We studied the effects of aging on a speed discrimination task using a pair of first-order drifting luminance gratings. Two reference speeds of 2 and 8 deg/s were presented at stimulus durations of 500 ms and 1000 ms. The choice of stimulus parameters, etc., was determined in preliminary experiments and described in Part I. Thresholds were estimated using a two-alternative-forced-choice staircase methodology. Data were collected from 16 younger subjects (mean age 24 years) and 17 older subjects (mean age 71 years). Results showed that thresholds for speed discrimination were higher for the older age group. This was especially true at stimulus duration of 500 ms for both slower and faster speeds. This could be attributed to differences in temporal integration of speed with age. Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity were not statistically observed to mediate age differences in the speed discrimination thresholds. Gender differences were observed in the older age group, with older women having higher thresholds.
Human Age Estimation Based on Locality and Ordinal Information.
Li, Changsheng; Liu, Qingshan; Dong, Weishan; Zhu, Xiaobin; Liu, Jing; Lu, Hanqing
2015-11-01
In this paper, we propose a novel feature selection-based method for facial age estimation. The face aging is a typical temporal process, and facial images should have certain ordinal patterns in the aging feature space. From the geometrical perspective, a facial image can be usually seen as sampled from a low-dimensional manifold embedded in the original high-dimensional feature space. Thus, we first measure the energy of each feature in preserving the underlying local structure information and the ordinal information of the facial images, respectively, and then we intend to learn a low-dimensional aging representation that can maximally preserve both kinds of information. To further improve the performance, we try to eliminate the redundant local information and ordinal information as much as possible by minimizing nonlinear correlation and rank correlation among features. Finally, we formulate all these issues into a unified optimization problem, which is similar to linear discriminant analysis in format. Since it is expensive to collect the labeled facial aging images in practice, we extend the proposed supervised method to a semi-supervised learning mode including the semi-supervised feature selection method and the semi-supervised age prediction algorithm. Extensive experiments are conducted on the FACES dataset, the Images of Groups dataset, and the FG-NET aging dataset to show the power of the proposed algorithms, compared to the state-of-the-arts. PMID:26470062
Application OF LIBS To Estimate The Age Of Broiler Breeders
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salam, Z. Abdel; Harith, M. A.
2011-09-01
Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) is a well-known spectrochemical elemental analysis technique. In our investigations of the LIBS spectra it has been found that there is a remarkable correlation between the ionic to atomic spectral lines emission ratio and the surface hardness of eggshell for two Different Broiler Breeder at different age. The proposed technique has been applied successfully in poultry science to estimate the age of broiler breeders by measuring the surface hardness of their eggshell. The experiments have been performed on two different strains, Arbor Acres plus (AAP) and Hubard Classic (HC), and the results were satisfactory.
The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates
Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.
2013-01-01
Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069
An assessment of GLOBOCAN methods for deriving national estimates of cancer incidence
Soerjomataram, Isabelle; Møller, Bjørn; Bray, Freddie; Ferlay, Jacques
2016-01-01
Abstract Objective To assess the validity of the GLOBOCAN methods for deriving national estimates of cancer incidence. Methods We obtained incidence and mortality data from Norway by region, year of diagnosis, cancer site, sex and 5-year age group for the period 1983–2012 from the NORDCAN database. Estimates for the year 2010 were derived using nine different methods from GLOBOCAN. These included the projection of national historical rates, the use of regional proxies and the combination of national mortality data with mortality to incidence ratios or relative survival proportions. We then compared the national estimates with recorded cancer incidence data. Findings Differences between the estimates derived using different methods varied by cancer site and sex. Methods based on projections performed better where major changes in recent trends were absent. Methods based on mortality data performed less well for cancers associated with small numbers of deaths and for cancers detectable by screening. In countries with longstanding cancer registries of high quality, regional-based, or trends-based incidence estimates perform reasonably well in comparison with recorded incidence. Conclusion Although the performance of the GLOBOCAN methods varies by cancer site and sex in this study, the results emphasize a need for more high-quality population-based cancer registries – either regional or, where practical and feasible, national registries – to describe cancer patterns and trends for planning cancer control priorities. PMID:26966328
Human age estimation from blood using mRNA, DNA methylation, DNA rearrangement, and telomere length.
Zubakov, Dmitry; Liu, Fan; Kokmeijer, Iris; Choi, Ying; van Meurs, Joyce B J; van IJcken, Wilfred F J; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Broer, Linda; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Lewin, Jörn; Kayser, Manfred
2016-09-01
Establishing the age of unknown persons, or persons with unknown age, can provide important leads in police investigations, disaster victim identification, fraud cases, and in other legal affairs. Previous methods mostly relied on morphological features available from teeth or skeletal parts. The development of molecular methods for age estimation allowing to use human specimens that possess no morphological age information, such as bloodstains, is extremely valuable as this type of samples is commonly found at crime scenes. Recently, we introduced a DNA-based approach for human age estimation from blood based on the quantification of T-cell specific DNA rearrangements (sjTRECs), which achieves accurate assignment of blood DNA samples to one of four 20-year-interval age categories. Aiming at improving the accuracy of molecular age estimation from blood, we investigated different types of biomarkers. We started out by systematic genome-wide surveys for new age-informative mRNA and DNA methylation markers in blood from the same young and old individuals using microarray technologies. The obtained candidate markers were validated in independent samples covering a wide age range using alternative technologies together with previously proposed DNA methylation, sjTREC, and telomere length markers. Cross-validated multiple regression analysis was applied for estimating and validating the age predictive power of various sets of biomarkers within and across different marker types. We found that DNA methylation markers outperformed mRNA, sjTREC, and telomere length in age predictive power. The best performing model included 8 DNA methylation markers derived from 3 CpG islands reaching a high level of accuracy (cross-validated R(2)=0.88, SE±6.97 years, mean absolute deviation 5.07 years). However, our data also suggest that mRNA markers can provide independent age information: a model using a combined set of 5 DNA methylation markers and one mRNA marker could provide
Estimation of dynamic functional connectivity using Multiplication of Temporal Derivatives.
Shine, James M; Koyejo, Oluwasanmi; Bell, Peter T; Gorgolewski, Krzysztof J; Gilat, Moran; Poldrack, Russell A
2015-11-15
Functional connectivity provides an informative and powerful framework for exploring brain organization. Despite this, few statistical methods are available for the accurate estimation of dynamic changes in functional network architecture. To date, the majority of existing statistical techniques have assumed that connectivity structure is stationary, which is in direct contrast to emerging data that suggests that the strength of connectivity between regions is variable over time. Therefore, the development of statistical methods that enable exploration of dynamic changes in functional connectivity is currently of great importance to the neuroscience community. In this paper, we introduce the 'Multiplication of Temporal Derivatives' (MTD) and then demonstrate the utility of this metric to: (i) detect dynamic changes in connectivity using data from a novel state-switching simulation; (ii) accurately estimate graph structure in a previously-described 'ground-truth' simulated dataset; and (iii) identify task-driven alterations in functional connectivity. We show that the MTD is more sensitive than existing sliding-window methods in detecting dynamic alterations in connectivity structure across a range of correlation strengths and window lengths in simulated data. In addition to the temporal precision offered by MTD, we demonstrate that the metric is also able to accurately estimate stationary network structure in both simulated and real task-based data, suggesting that the method may be used to identify dynamic changes in network structure as they evolve through time. PMID:26231247
Influence of age in estimating maximal oxygen uptake
de Souza e Silva, Christina G; Franklin, Barry A; Forman, Daniel E; Araújo, Claudio Gil S
2016-01-01
Objective To assess the influence of age on the error of estimate (EE) of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) using sex and population specific-equations in cycle ergometer exercise testing, since estimated VO2 max is associated with a substantial EE, often exceeding 20%, possibly due to intrinsic variability of mechanical efficiency. Methods 1850 adults (68% men), aged 18 to 91 years, underwent maximal cycle ergometer cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) was assessed relative to sex and age [younger (18 to 35 years), middle-aged (36 to 60 years) and older (> 60 years)]. VO2max [mL·(kg·min)−1] was directly measured by assessment of gas exchange and estimated using sex and population specific-equations. Measured and estimated values of VO2max and related EE were compared among the three age- and sex-specific groups. Results Directly measured VO2max of men and women were 29.5 ± 10.5 mL·(kg·min)−1 and 24.2 ± 9.0 mL·(kg·min)−1 (P < 0.01). EE [mL·(kg·min)−1] and percent errors (%E) for men and women had similar values, 0.5 ± 3.2 and 0.4 ± 2.9 mL·(kg·min)−1, and −0.8 ± 13.1% and −1.7 ± 15.4% (P > 0.05), respectively. EE and %E for each age-group were, respectively, for men: younger = 1.9 ± 4.1 mL·(kg·min)−1 and 3.8 ± 10.5%, middle-aged = 0.6 ± 3.1 mL·(kg·min)−1 and 0.4 ± 10.3%, older = −0.2 ± 2.7 mL·(kg·min)−1 and −4.2 ± 16.6% (P < 0.01); and for women: younger = 1.2 ± 3.1 mL·(kg·min)−1 and 2.7 ± 10.0%, middle-aged = 0.7 ± 2.8 mL·(kg·min)−1 and 0.5 ± 11.1%, older = -0.8 ± 2.3 mL·(kg·min)−1 and −9.5 ± 22.4% (P < 0.01). Conclusion VO2max were underestimated in younger age-groups and were overestimated in older age groups. Age significantly influences the magnitude of the EE of VO2max in both men and women and should be considered when CRF is estimated using population specific equations, rather than directly measured. PMID:27168737
Dental radiographic indicators, a key to age estimation
Panchbhai, AS
2011-01-01
Objective The present review article is aimed at describing the radiological methods utilized for human age identification. Methods The application and importance of radiological methods in human age assessment was discussed through the literature survey. Results Following a literature search, 46 articles were included in the study and the relevant information is depicted in the article. Dental tissue is often preserved indefinitely after death. Implementation of radiography is based on the assessment of the extent of calcification of teeth and in turn the degree of formation of crown and root structures, along with the sequence and the stages of eruption. Several radiological techniques can be used to assist in both individual and general identification, including determination of gender, ethnic group and age. The radiographic method is a simpler and cheaper method of age identification compared with histological and biochemical methods. Radiographic and tomographic images have become an essential aid for human identification in forensic dentistry, particularly with the refinement of techniques and the incorporation of information technology resources. Conclusion Based on an appropriate knowledge of the available methods, forensic dentists can choose the most appropriate since the validity of age estimation crucially depends on the method used and its proper application. The multifactorial approach will lead to optimum age assessment. The legal requirements also have to be considered. PMID:21493876
Age estimation from physiological changes of teeth: A reliable age marker?
Singh, Nishant; Grover, Neeraj; Puri, Navin; Singh, Sanjeet; Arora, Swati
2014-01-01
Background: Age is an essential factor in establishing the identity of a person. Teeth are one of the most durable and resilient part of skeleton. Gustafson (1950) suggested the use of six retrogressive dental changes that are seen with increasing age. Aim: The aim of the study was to evaluate the results and to check the reliability of modified Gustafson's method for determining the age of an individual. Materials and Methods: Total 70 patients in the age group of 20-65 years, undergoing extraction were included in this present work. The ground sections of extracted teeth were prepared and examined under the microscope. Modified Gustafson's criteria were used for the estimation of age. Degree of attrition, root translucency, secondary dentin deposition, cementum apposition, and root resorption were measured. A linear regression formula was obtained using different statistical equations in a sample of 70 patients. Results: The mean age difference of total 70 cases studied was ±2.64 years. Difference of actual and calculated age was significant and was observed at 5% level of significance, that is, t-cal > t-tab (t-cal = 7.72). P < 0.05, indicates that the results were statistically significant. Conclusion: The present study concludes that Gustafson's method is a reliable method for age estimation with some proposed modifications. PMID:25125919
Fetal age estimation using MSCT scans of the mandible.
Minier, Marie; Dedouit, Fabrice; Maret, Delphine; Vergnault, Marion; Mokrane, Fathima-Zohra; Rousseau, Hervé; Adalian, Pascal; Telmon, Norbert; Rougé, Daniel
2014-05-01
The purpose of this study was to examine a documented fetal collection, to carry out morphometric analysis of femoral length and of the mandible, and to develop diagnostic standards for estimating fetal age at death based on multislice computed tomography (MSCT) reconstructions. The sample was composed of 81 fetuses, whose ages were recorded in weeks of amenorrhea (WA) between 20 to 40 WA. The measurements made were femoral length (FL) and six distances and four angles of the mandible. Femoral length was measured in 81 fetuses (39 females and 42 males). Morphometric study of the mandible was carried out in 65 fetuses (31 females and 34 males), as the mandible was missing in 16 fetuses. R software was used for statistical analyses. Coefficient correlation (R(2)) and linear regression formulas were calculated. Intra-observer and inter-observer variabilities were very satisfactory (intra-class correlation coefficient ≥0.95). Our method appears to be reliable and reproducible. Femoral length was most strongly correlated with age (R(2) = 0.9). The measurement of six distances and four mandible angles from four landmark positions showed a correlation similar to the femoral length correlation (R(2) ≥ 0.72). The results of this study agreed with those of the literature. We conclude that the mandible is a reliable indicator for estimating fetal age at death. Moreover, MSCT has been shown to be an innovative and reliable technology for this purpose. PMID:24213737
Accuracy of age estimation of radiographic methods using developing teeth.
Maber, M; Liversidge, H M; Hector, M P
2006-05-15
Developing teeth are used to assess maturity and estimate age in a number of disciplines, however the accuracy of different methods has not been systematically investigated. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of several methods. Tooth formation was assessed from radiographs of healthy children attending a dental teaching hospital. The sample was 946 children (491 boys, 455 girls, aged 3-16.99 years) with similar number of children from Bangladeshi and British Caucasian ethnic origin. Panoramic radiographs were examined and seven mandibular teeth staged according to Demirjian's dental maturity scale [A. Demirjian, Dental development, CD-ROM, Silver Platter Education, University of Montreal, Montreal, 1993-1994; A. Demirjian, H. Goldstein, J.M. Tanner, A new system of dental age assessment, Hum. Biol. 45 (1973) 211-227; A. Demirjian, H. Goldstein, New systems for dental maturity based on seven and four teeth, Ann. Hum. Biol. 3 (1976) 411-421], Nolla [C.M. Nolla, The development of the permanent teeth, J. Dent. Child. 27 (1960) 254-266] and Haavikko [K. Haavikko, The formation and the alveolar and clinical eruption of the permanent teeth. An orthopantomographic study. Proc. Finn. Dent. Soc. 66 (1970) 103-170]. Dental age was calculated for each method, including an adaptation of Demirjian's method with updated scoring [G. Willems, A. Van Olmen, B. Spiessens, C. Carels, Dental age estimation in Belgian children: Demirjian's technique revisited, J. Forensic Sci. 46 (2001) 893-895]. The mean difference (+/-S.D. in years) between dental and real age was calculated for each method and in the case of Haavikko, each tooth type; and tested using t-test. Mean difference was also calculated for the age group 3-13.99 years for Haavikko (mean and individual teeth). Results show that the most accurate method was by Willems [G. Willems, A. Van Olmen, B. Spiessens, C. Carels, Dental age estimation in Belgian children: Demirjian's technique revisited, J. Forensic Sci
Demirjian's method in the estimation of age: A study on human third molars
Lewis, Amitha J.; Boaz, Karen; Nagesh, K. R; Srikant, N; Gupta, Neha; Nandita, K. P; Manaktala, Nidhi
2015-01-01
Aim: The primary aim of the following study is to estimate the chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A to H) method of Demirjian et al. (along with two modifications-Orhan) and secondary aim is to compare third molar development with sex and age. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of 115 orthopantomograms from South Indian subjects with known chronological age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed with chronological age as the dependable variable and third molar root development as independent variable. All the statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 package (IBM ® Corporation). Results: Statistically no significant differences were found in third molar development between males and females. Depending on the available number of wisdom teeth in an individual, R2 varied for males from 0.21 to 0.48 and for females from 0.16 to 0.38. New equations were derived for estimating the chronological age. Conclusion: The chronological age of a South Indian individual between 14 and 22 years may be estimated based on the regression formulae. However, additional studies with a larger study population must be conducted to meet the need for population-based information on third molar development. PMID:26005306
Age estimation among Brazilians: Younger or older than 18?
Deitos, Alexandre Raphael; Costa, Claudio; Michel-Crosato, Edgard; Galić, Ivan; Cameriere, Roberto; Biazevic, Maria Gabriela Haye
2015-07-01
The age estimation of living or dead individuals is an important part of forensic science because it can be used in various situations, including mass disasters, or for civil or criminal reasons, such as adoption or asylum. Teeth play a major role in this context because they are more resistant than bones in extreme environmental conditions and their development is hardly affected by exogenous or endogenous factors. Because the third molars (3rdM) are still in development from the age of 14, they are useful for determining whether an individual has reached the legal age of 18 years. This study aims to verify the method of Cameriere et al. (2008) in Brazil to discriminate whether an individual is under or over 18 years from the maturity index of the 3rdM (I3m). The analysis of 444 panoramic radiographs resulted in a sensitivity of 78.3%, a specificity of 85.1% and a correct classification of 87%. Significant differences in sexual dimorphism in the early mineralization of males were found only for the average age with I3m ≥ 0.08, except for the range (0.7, 0.9). Due to the high miscegenation ratio of the Brazilian population the ancestry was not one of the studied variables. The method is suitable for estimating adulthood for forensic purposes in Brazil, although it must be applied carefully and judiciously. We recommend a combination of several methods that are available to increase accuracy as well as the establishment of different parameters that are likely to determine whether a person is more or less than 18 years of age, depending on the different legal requirements, whether civil or criminal. PMID:26048509
Jeevan, M B; Kale, Alka D; Angadi, Punnya V; Hallikerimath, Seema
2011-01-30
Age estimation of an individual whether living or dead is an intimidating task in forensic investigations. Since teeth are more resistant to most peri- and post-mortem changes, they are frequently used for identification and age estimation when skeletal remains are in poor condition. However, most methods are destructive and warrant extraction of teeth which is not feasible in living individuals. Cameriere's et al. put forth a radiographic method of age estimation by pulp to tooth area ratio (AR) in canines and revealed a linear regression between age and the AR. In the present study, we estimated the AR in 456 canines (upper, lower and both) in an Indian sample (114 males and 114 females) using radiovisiography technique. Linear regression equations were derived for upper canine, lower canine and both using the AR to estimate chronological age. Additionally, the efficacy of these equations was also evaluated in younger age group (<45 years). The formulas derived, i.e., age=96.795-513.561x(1) (Eq. (1)) for upper canine, age=88.308-458.137x(2) (Eq. (2)) for lower canine and age=99.190-283.537x(1)-306.902x(2)+400.873x(1)x(2) (Eq. (3)) for both the canines were applied to predict the chronological age. The mean value of residuals using these regression equations ranged from 4.28 to 6.39 years with upper canine equation generally giving a precise result. When these equations were applied for younger ages (<45 years), the regression equation derived from both canines gave a better result (mean residual 2.70 years). Overall these equations were better able to predict the age in younger ages, i.e., up to 45 years. PMID:20869824
Age estimation in Indians from pulp/tooth area ratio of mandibular canines.
Babshet, Medha; Acharya, Ashith B; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G
2010-04-15
In India, age estimation of living individuals is gaining importance, particularly in cases of child labour, ascertaining majority status and to assess disputed age in criminals. Previous studies on adult age prediction in Indians have focused on histological parameters, which are invasive in nature and not feasible in the living. Methods for age estimation in living adults make use of radiographs to indirectly measure the rate of secondary dentine deposition and studies have focused on ratios of linear measurements rather than absolute dimensions per se. Recently, the ratio of the pulp/tooth area of canines was suggested by a group in Italy who developed regression formulas for age estimation. The present study has assessed the usefulness of one of the formulas on an Indian sample and also examined the use of an India-specific equation in age prediction. Intraoral periapical digital radiographs of mandibular canines were obtained from 143 individuals (aged 20-70 years) using the paralleling technique; pulp and tooth areas were measured using a commercially available computer software programme and the pulp/tooth area ratio was computed. Age was calculated using the Italian formula which revealed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 11.01 years in Indians, an error recognisably greater than the 4.38 years reported in the Italian sample. The divergence may be explained on account of population differences that exist between Italians and Indians as well as variation in the pattern of secondary dentine deposition in Indians. The Indian formula derived (age=64.413-(195.265 x PTR), where PTR is the pulp/tooth area ratio) was applied on a control group of 35 radiographs. The Italian formula was also applied on the control sample to ascertain if the Indian formula markedly improved age prediction. No apparent difference was observed between the two (MAE was 10.76 and 11.58 years, respectively, using the Indian and Italian formula) however, the Indian formula had a tendency to
Estimating the age of alleles by use of intraallelic variability
Slatkin, M.; Rannala, B.
1997-02-01
A method is presented for estimating the age of an allele by use of its frequency and the extent of variation among different copies. The method uses the joint distribution of the number of copies in a population sample and the coalescence times of the intraallelic gene genealogy conditioned on the number of copies. The linear birth-death process is used to approximate the dynamics of a rare allele in a finite population. A maximum-likelihood estimate of the age of the allele is obtained by Monte Carlo integration over the coalescence times. The method is applied to two alleles at the cystic fibrosis (CFTR) locus, {Delta}F508 and G542X, for which intraallelic variability at three intronic microsatellite loci has been examined. Our results indicate that G542X is somewhat older than {Delta}F508. Although absolute estimates depend on the mutation rates at the microsatellite loci, our results support the hypothesis that {Delta}F508 arose <500 generations ({approx}10,000 years) ago. 32 refs., 4 figs.
Age estimation in Indian children and adolescents in the NCR region of Haryana: A comparative study
Gupta, Swati; Mehendiratta, Monica; Rehani, Shweta; Kumra, Madhumani; Nagpal, Ruchi; Gupta, Ramakant
2015-01-01
Introduction: Age estimation is a preliminary step in the identification of an individual. It is a crucial and often most critical step for forensic experts. The assessment has been standardized utilizing common dental diagnostic x-rays, but most such age-estimating systems are European population-based and their applicability has not been determined in the context of the Indian population. Aims and Objectives: To assess the applicability and to compare the methods of dental age estimation by Demirjian's method and the same method as modified by Willems (i.e. the Willems method) in Indian children of the National Capital Region (NCR). Also, to find a correlation among skeletal maturity using the Cervical vertebrae maturation index (CVMI), dental maturity, and chronological age in the same population. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted using dental radiographs of 70 orthodontic patients (37 males, 33 females) in the age range 9-16 years selected by simple random sampling. pantomogram were used to estimate dental age by Demirjian's method and the Willems method using their scoring tables. Lateral cephalograms were used to estimate skeletal maturity using CVMI. The latter was compared with Demirjian's stage for mandibular left second molar. Results: Overestimation of age among males by 0.856 years and 0.496 years was found by Demirjian's and the Willems methods, respectively. Among females, both the methods underestimated the age by 0.31 years and 0.45 years, respectively. Demirjian's stage G corresponded to CVMI stage 3 in males and stage 2 in females. Conclusion: In our study, the Willems method has proved to be more accurate for age estimation among Indian males, and Demirjian's method for Indian females. A statistically significant association appeared between Demirjian's stages and CVMI among both males and females. Our study recommends the derivation of a regression formula by studying a larger section of the Indian population
An Age Estimate for the beta Pictoris Analog HR 4796A
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stauffer, John R.; Hartmann, Lee W.; Barrado y Navascues, David
1995-12-01
We have obtained a high-resolution, moderate signal-to-noise spectrum for the M dwarf companion to HR 4796A, an AO star with a β Pictoris-type IR excess. The spectrum of the M star shows an extraordinarily strong lithium 6708 Å absorption line with an equivalent width of 550 mÅ. Age estimates derived from the lithium strength and from pre-main-sequence isochrone fitting indicate an age of about 8 ± 2 Myr for HR 4796B. Assuming this age is also applicable to HR 4796A, we conclude that HR 4796A is a relatively normal A star seen at an unusual time (i.e., when it is very young) rather than an A star of "average" age which has somehow managed to retain or acquire a dense, circumstellar disk, in rough agreement with conclusions reached previously by Jura et al.
Estimation of fetal gestational age from ultrasound images
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salari, Valiollah
1992-06-01
Estimation of fetal gestational age, weight, and determination of fetal growth from the measurements of certain parameters of fetal head, abdomen, and femur have been well established in prenatal sonography. The measurements are made from the two dimensional, B- mode, ultrasound images of the fetus. The most common parameters measured are, biparietal diameter, occipital frontal diameter, head circumference, femur diaphysis length, and abdominal circumference. Since the fetal head has an elliptical shape and the femur has a linear shape, fitting the ellipse on the image of the fetal head, a line on the image of the femur are the tasks of image processing which are discussed in this paper.
Red giant masses and ages derived from carbon and nitrogen abundances
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martig, Marie; Fouesneau, Morgan; Rix, Hans-Walter; Ness, Melissa; Mészáros, Szabolcs; García-Hernández, D. A.; Pinsonneault, Marc; Serenelli, Aldo; Silva Aguirre, Victor; Zamora, Olga
2016-03-01
We show that the masses of red giant stars can be well predicted from their photospheric carbon and nitrogen abundances, in conjunction with their spectroscopic stellar labels log g, Teff, and [Fe/H]. This is qualitatively expected from mass-dependent post-main-sequence evolution. We here establish an empirical relation between these quantities by drawing on 1475 red giants with asteroseismic mass estimates from Kepler that also have spectroscopic labels from Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) DR12. We assess the accuracy of our model, and find that it predicts stellar masses with fractional rms errors of about 14 per cent (typically 0.2 M⊙). From these masses, we derive ages with rms errors of 40 per cent. This empirical model allows us for the first time to make age determinations (in the range 1-13 Gyr) for vast numbers of giant stars across the Galaxy. We apply our model to ˜52 000 stars in APOGEE DR12, for which no direct mass and age information was previously available. We find that these estimates highlight the vertical age structure of the Milky Way disc, and that the relation of age with [α/M] and metallicity is broadly consistent with established expectations based on detailed studies of the solar neighbourhood.
Evaluation of Satellite-derived Precipitation Estimates over the Americas
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arkin, P. A.; Janowiak, J.; Vila, D. A.
2011-12-01
Satellite-derived precipitation products are routinely evaluated over the U.S. and South America using rain gauge and radar data as the reference or "ground truth" data sets. These evaluations are conducted in various ways that are dictated mainly by the type of reference data that are available. For example, over the U.S. evaluations are performed on daily precipitation totals on a 0.25° x 0.25° latitude/longitude grid using both rain gauge and radar data (separately) as the reference data sets. In addition, satellite precipitation estimates for individual satellite swaths are evaluated using hourly radar data over the U.S. Over South America, where radar data are not readily available and where rain gauge data are relatively sparse, evaluations are conducted using rain gauge analyses on a 1° x 1° latitude/longitude grid on daily and seasonal time scales. Standard statistical metrics that are used in these evaluations include temporal correlation, bias, root mean square error as well as a standard suite of rainfall occurrence statistics (probability of detection, false alarm ration, and various skill scores). We also attempt to condense this information by providing a "best" performing metric which determines which algorithm performs best among the others for various individual statistics. Plots of this "best" performer statistic on maps is an efficient way to quickly determine the algorithms that perform the best as a function of geographical location and season. Recent results showing the performance of new and standard estimation techniques will be described.
Oldrini, Guillaume; Harter, Valentin; Witte, Yannick; Martrille, Laurent; Blum, Alain
2016-01-01
Age estimation is commonly of interest in a judicial context. In adults, it is less documented than in children. The aim of this study was to evaluate age estimation in adults using CT images of the sternal plastron with volume rendering technique (VRT). The evaluation criteria are derived from known methods used for age estimation and are applicable in living or dead subjects. The VRT images of 456 patients were analyzed. Two radiologists performed age estimation independently from an anterior view of the plastron. Interobserver agreement and correlation coefficients between each reader's classification and real age were calculated. The interobserver agreement was 0.86, and the correlation coefficients between readers classifications and real age classes were 0.60 and 0.65. Spearman correlation coefficients were, respectively, 0.89, 0.67, and 0.71. Analysis of the plastron using VRT allows age estimation in vivo quickly and with results similar than methods such as Iscan, Suchey-Brooks, and radiographs used to estimate the age of death. PMID:27092960
Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates
Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.
2013-01-01
The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.
Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.
2008-01-01
Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.
The Impact of Starspots on Mass and Age Estimates for Pre-main Sequence Stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Somers, Garrett; Pinsonneault, Marc H.
2016-01-01
We investigate the impact of starspots on the evolution of late-type stars during the pre-main sequence (pre-MS). We find that heavy spot coverage increases the radii of stars by 4-10%, consistent with inflation factors in eclipsing binary systems, and suppresses the rate of pre-MS lithium depletion, leading to a dispersion in zero-age MS Li abundance (comparable to observed spreads) if a range of spot properties exist within clusters from 3-10 Myr. This concordance with data implies that spots induce a range of radii at fixed mass during the pre-MS. These spots decrease the luminosity and T eff of stars, leading to a displacement on the HR diagram. This displacement causes isochrone derived masses and ages to be systematically under-estimated, and can lead to the spurious appearance of an age spread in a co-eval population.
Postnatal growth and age estimation in Scotophilus kuhlii.
Chen, Shiang-Fan; Huang, Shang-Shang; Lu, Dau-Jye; Shen, Tsung-Jen
2016-01-01
Adequate postnatal growth is important for young bats to develop skilled sensory and locomotor abilities, which are highly associated with their survival once independent. This study investigated the postnatal growth and development of Scotophilus kuhlii in captivity. An empirical growth curve was established, and the postnatal growth rate was quantified to derive an age-predictive equation. By further controlling the fostering conditions of twins, the differences in the development patterns between pups that received maternal care or were hand-reared were analyzed to determine whether the latter developed in the same manner as their maternally reared counterparts. Our results indicate that both forearm length and body mass increased rapidly and linearly during the first 4 weeks, after which the growth rate gradually decreased to reach a stable level. The first flight occurred at an average age of 39 days with a mean forearm length and body mass of 92.07% and 70.52% of maternal size, respectively. The developmental pattern of hand-reared pups, although similar to that of their maternally reared twin siblings, displayed a slightly faster growth rate in the 4th and 5th weeks. The heavier body mass of hand-reared pups during the pre-fledging period may cause higher wing loading, potentially influencing the flight performance and survival of the bats once independent. PMID:26600428
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
He, L.; Chen, J. M.; Pan, Y.; Birdsey, R.
2010-12-01
Forest net primary productivity (NPP) varies greatly with stand age, and quantitative information on NPP-age relationship is therefore fundamentally important for forest carbon cycle modeling. We may use four terms to calculate NPP: annual accumulation of live biomass, annual mortality of aboveground and belowground biomass, foliage turnover to soil, and fine root turnover in soil. To derive NPP-age relationships for US forests, the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data are used to estimate the first two terms. The last two terms make up more than 50% of total NPP, but their estimates are highly uncertain based on limited available empirical relationships between aboveground biomass and foliage or fine root biomass. These estimates are mostly confounded by unknown variations of the turnover rates (TR) related to stand age because such field information is rare. To resolve this problem, we developed a new approach by using a leaf area index (LAI) map and a forest age map at 1 km resolution to derive LAI-age relationships for 18 major forest species groups in the USA. These relationships are then used to derive foliage TR using species-specific leaf longevity values. These relationships are also used for estimating the fine root TR based on reliable relationships between fine root and foliage TR. This combination of FIA and remote sensing data allows us for the first time to derive reliable NPP-age relationships for different forest types in USA (Figure 1). The derived relationships show a general temporal pattern of rapid increase in NPP in early ages, peak growth in mid-ages, and slow decline in old ages. The patterns are subjected to climate conditions, and can also be influenced by forest management. These relationships are further generalized for three major forest biomes for continental-scale carbon cycle modeling in conjunction with remotely sensed land cover types. The NPP relationships derived here may have many uses for analysis of management and climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ligi, R.; Creevey, O.; Mourard, D.; Crida, A.; Lagrange, A.-M.; Nardetto, N.; Perraut, K.; Schultheis, M.; Tallon-Bosc, I.; ten Brummelaar, T.
2016-02-01
Context. Accurate stellar parameters are needed in numerous domains of astrophysics. The position of stars on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram is an important indication of their structure and evolution, and it helps improve stellar models. Furthermore, the age and mass of stars hosting planets are required elements for studying exoplanetary systems. Aims: We aim at determining accurate parameters of a set of 18 bright exoplanet host and potential host stars from interferometric measurements, photometry, and stellar models. Methods: Using the VEGA/CHARA interferometer operating in the visible domain, we measured the angular diameters of 18 stars, ten of which host exoplanets. We combined them with their distances to estimate their radii. We used photometry to derive their bolometric flux and, then, their effective temperature and luminosity to place them on the H-R diagram. We then used the PARSEC models to derive their best fit ages and masses, with error bars derived from Monte Carlo calculations. Results: Our interferometric measurements lead to an average of 1.9% uncertainty on angular diameters and 3% on stellar radii. There is good agreement between measured and indirect estimations of angular diameters (either from SED fitting or from surface brightness relations) for main sequence (MS) stars, but not as good for more evolved stars. For each star, we provide a likelihood map in the mass-age plane; typically, two distinct sets of solutions appear (an old and a young age). The errors on the ages and masses that we provide account for the metallicity uncertainties, which are often neglected by other works. From measurements of its radius and density, we also provide the mass of 55 Cnc independently of models. From the stellar masses, we provide new estimates of semi-major axes and minimum masses of exoplanets with reliable uncertainties. We also derive the radius, density, and mass of 55 Cnc e, a super-Earth that transits its stellar host. Our exoplanetary
LiDAR-derived carbon estimates in encroaching juniper woodlands
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Woody encroachment is thought to contribute significantly to the global carbon (C) sink. The global- and continental-scale estimates of this contribution, however, have large uncertainties. The woody encroachment contribution to the C sink needs to be estimated at regional and local scales to addres...
Mean thermospheric density estimation derived from satellite constellations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Alan; Close, Sigrid
2015-10-01
This paper defines a method to estimate the mean neutral density of the thermosphere given many satellites of the same form factor travelling in similar regions of space. A priori information to the estimation scheme include ranging measurements and a general knowledge of the onboard ADACS, although precise measurements are not required for the latter. The estimation procedure seeks to utilize order statistics to estimate the probability of the minimum drag coefficient achievable, and amalgamating all measurements across multiple time periods allows estimation of the probability density of the ballistic factor itself. The model does not depend on prior models of the atmosphere; instead we require estimation of the minimum achievable drag coefficient which is based upon physics models of simple shapes in free molecular flow. From the statistics of the minimum, error statistics on the estimated atmospheric density can be calculated. Barring measurement errors from the ranging procedure itself, it is shown that with a constellation of 10 satellites, we can achieve a standard deviation of roughly 4% on the estimated mean neutral density. As more satellites are added to the constellation, the result converges towards the lower limit of the achievable drag coefficient, and accuracy becomes limited by the quality of the ranging measurements and the probability of the accommodation coefficient. Comparisons are made to existing atmospheric models such as NRLMSISE-00 and JB2006.
Popescu, Bogdan; Hanson, M. M.; Elmegreen, Bruce G. E-mail: margaret.hanson@uc.edu
2012-06-01
We present new age and mass estimates for 920 stellar clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) based on previously published broadband photometry and the stellar cluster analysis package, MASSCLEANage. Expressed in the generic fitting formula, d{sup 2} N/dMdt{proportional_to}M{sup {alpha}} t{sup {beta}}, the distribution of observed clusters is described by {alpha} = -1.5 to -1.6 and {beta} = -2.1 to -2.2. For 288 of these clusters, ages have recently been determined based on stellar photometric color-magnitude diagrams, allowing us to gauge the confidence of our ages. The results look very promising, opening up the possibility that this sample of 920 clusters, with reliable and consistent age, mass, and photometric measures, might be used to constrain important characteristics about the stellar cluster population in the LMC. We also investigate a traditional age determination method that uses a {chi}{sup 2} minimization routine to fit observed cluster colors to standard infinite-mass limit simple stellar population models. This reveals serious defects in the derived cluster age distribution using this method. The traditional {chi}{sup 2} minimization method, due to the variation of U, B, V, R colors, will always produce an overdensity of younger and older clusters, with an underdensity of clusters in the log (age/yr) = [7.0, 7.5] range. Finally, we present a unique simulation aimed at illustrating and constraining the fading limit in observed cluster distributions that includes the complex effects of stochastic variations in the observed properties of stellar clusters.
Seasonal comparisons of sea ice concentration estimates derived from SSM/I, OKEAN and RADARSAT data
Belchansky, G.I.; Douglas, D.C.
2002-01-01
highly correlated during winter, spring, and fall, with mean differences of less than 8.1% (SD < 15%) for the NASA Team algorithm, and less than 2.8 % (SD < 13.8%) for the Bootstrap algorithm. Respective differences between SSM/I NASA Team and SSM/I Bootstrap total concentrations were less than 5.3% (SD < 6.9%). Monthly mean differences between SSM/I and OKEAN differed annually by less than 6%, with smaller differences primarily in winter. The NASA Team and Bootstrap algorithms underestimated the total sea ice concentrations relative to the RADARSAT ScanSAR no more than 3.0% (SD<9 %) and 1.2% (SD < 7.5%) during cold months, and no more than 12% and 7% during summer, respectively. ScanSAR tended to estimate higher ice concentrations for ice concentrations greater than 50%, when compared to SSM/I during all months. ScanSAR underestimated total sea ice concentration by 2 % compared to the OKEAN-01 algorithm during cold months, and gave an overestimation by 2% during spring and summer months. Total NASA Team and Bootstrap sea ice concentration estimates derived from coincident SSM/I and OKEAN-01 data demonstrated mean differences no more than 5.3 % (SD < 7%), 3.1 % (SD < 5.5%), 2.0% (SD < 5.5%), and 7.3 % (SD < 10%) for fall, winter, spring, and summer periods, respectively. Large disagreements were observed between the OKEAN and NASA Team results in spring and summer for estimates of the first-year and multiyear age classes. The OKEAN-01 algorithm and data tended to estimate, on average, lower concentrations of young or first-year ice and higher concentrations of total and multiyear ice for all months and seasons. Our results contribute to the growing body of documentation about the levels of disparity obtained when seasonal sea ice concentrations are estimated using various types of satellite data and algorithms.
Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age
Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik
2015-01-01
Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker’s age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by “naïve” listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers’ natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60–65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20–25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40–45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed. PMID:26236259
Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age.
Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik
2015-01-01
Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker's age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by "naïve" listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers' natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60-65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20-25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40-45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed. PMID:26236259
Early-age concrete strength estimation based on piezoelectric sensor using artificial neural network
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Junkyeong; Kim, Ju-Won; Park, Seunghee
2014-04-01
Recently, novel methods to estimate the strength of concrete have been reported based on numerous NDT methods. Especially, electro-mechanical impedance technique using piezoelectric sensors are studied to estimate the strength of concrete. However, the previous research works could not provide the general information about the early-age strength important to manage the quality of concrete and/or the construction process. In order to estimate the early-age strength of concrete, the electro-mechanical impedance method and the artificial neural network(ANN) is utilized in this study. The electro-mechanical impedance varies with the mechanical properties of host structures. Because the strength development is most influential factor among the change of mechanical properties at early-age of curing, it is possible to estimate the strength of concrete by analyzing the change of E/M impedance. The strength of concrete is a complex function of several factors like mix proportion, temperature, elasticity, etc. Because of this, it is hard to mathematically derive equations about strength of concrete. The ANN can provide the solution about early-age strength of concrete without mathematical equations. To verify the proposed approach, a series of experimental studies are conducted. The impedance signals are measured using embedded piezoelectric sensors during curing process and the resonant frequency of impedance is extracted as a strength feature. The strength of concrete is calculated by regression of strength development curve obtained by destructive test. Then ANN model is established by trained using experimental results. Finally the ANN model is verified using impedance data of other sensors.
Tandon, Ankita; Agarwal, Vartika; Arora, Varun
2015-01-01
Objectives The study was conducted to check the reliability of India-specific regression formula for age estimation of population in and around Bahadurgarh, Haryana (India). Materials and methods The study was conducted using digital orthopantomograms (OPGs) of 464 subjects (253 males and 211 females). Chronologic age (CA) was derived from that mentioned on the OPG. Each tooth in the left mandibular segment was scored using Demirjian's scoring and age was calculated using the regression formulas derived by Acharya. The difference of the chronologic and estimated age was used to check the reliability of India-specific regression formula. Results The mean estimated age was found to be significantly higher as compared to CA for overall as well as both the genders independently (p < 0.001). Difference (in ±) between estimated and CA ranged from 0 to 4.2 years. Mean difference in age was 0.85 ± 0.73 years for males and 0.87 ± 0.76 years for females. Conclusion The published India-specific regression formula does not have reliability in the population of Bahadurgarh, Haryana and hence cannot be universally applied. PMID:26587381
Threshold groundwater ages and young water fractions estimated from 3H, 3He, and 14C
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kirchner, James; Jasechko, Scott
2016-04-01
It is widely recognized that a water sample taken from a running stream is not described by a single age, but rather by a distribution of ages. It is less widely recognized that the same principle holds true for groundwaters, as indicated by the commonly observed discordances between model ages obtained from different tracers (e.g., 3H vs 14C) in the same sample. Water age distributions are often characterized by their mean residence times (MRT's). However, MRT estimates are highly uncertain because they depend on the shape of the assumed residence time distribution (in particular on the thickness of the long-time tail), which is difficult or impossible to constrain with data. Furthermore, because MRT's are typically nonlinear functions of age tracer concentrations, they are subject to aggregation bias. That is, MRT estimates derived from a mixture of waters with different ages (and thus different tracer concentrations) will systematically underestimate the mixture's true mean age. Here, building on recent work with stable isotope tracers in surface waters [1-3], we present a new framework for using 3H, 3He and 14C to characterize groundwater age distributions. Rather than describing groundwater age distributions by their MRT, we characterize them by the fraction of the distribution that is younger or older than a threshold age. The threshold age that separates "young" from "old" water depends on the characteristics of the specific tracer, including its history of atmospheric inputs. Our approach depends only on whether a given slice of the age distribution is younger or older than the threshold age, but not on how much younger or older it is. Thus our approach is insensitive to the tails of the age distribution, and is therefore relatively unaffected by uncertainty in the distribution's shape. Here we show that concentrations of 3H, 3He, and 14C are almost linearly related to the fractions of water that are younger or older than specified threshold ages. These
A New Method for Deriving Global Estimates of Maternal Mortality.
Wilmoth, John R; Mizoguchi, Nobuko; Oestergaard, Mikkel Z; Say, Lale; Mathers, Colin D; Zureick-Brown, Sarah; Inoue, Mie; Chou, Doris
2012-07-13
Maternal mortality is widely regarded as a key indicator of population health and of social and economic development. Its levels and trends are monitored closely by the United Nations and others, inspired in part by the UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which call for a three-fourths reduction in the maternal mortality ratio between 1990 and 2015. Unfortunately, the empirical basis for such monitoring remains quite weak, requiring the use of statistical models to obtain estimates for most countries. In this paper we describe a new method for estimating global levels and trends in maternal mortality. For countries lacking adequate data for direct calculation of estimates, we employed a parametric model that separates maternal deaths related to HIV/AIDS from all others. For maternal deaths unrelated to HIV/AIDS, the model consists of a hierarchical linear regression with three predictors and variable intercepts for both countries and regions. The uncertainty of estimates was assessed by simulating the estimation process, accounting for variability both in the data and in other model inputs. The method was used to obtain the most recent set of UN estimates, published in September 2010. Here, we provide a concise description and explanation of the approach, including a new analysis of the components of variability reflected in the uncertainty intervals. Final estimates provide evidence of a more rapid decline in the global maternal mortality ratio than suggested by previous work, including another study published in April 2010. We compare findings from the two recent studies and discuss topics for further research to help resolve differences. PMID:24416714
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kotter-Gruhn, Dana; Hess, Thomas M.
2012-01-01
Perceived age plays an important role in the context of age identity and social interactions. To examine how accurate individuals are in estimating how old they look and how old others are, younger, middle-aged, and older adults rated photographs of older target persons (for whom we had information about objective and subjective age) in terms of…
Stability and control derivative estimates obtained from flight data for the Beech 99 aircraft
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tanner, R. R.; Montgomery, T. D.
1979-01-01
Lateral-directional and longitudinal stability and control derivatives were determined from flight data by using a maximum likelihood estimator for the Beech 99 airplane. Data were obtained with the aircraft in the cruise configuration and with one-third flap deflection. The estimated derivatives show good agreement with the predictions of the manufacturer.
A Bayesian approach to estimate skeletal age-at-death utilizing dental wear.
Prince, Debra A; Kimmerle, Erin H; Konigsberg, Lyle W
2008-05-01
In the forensic context, teeth are often recovered in mass disasters, armed conflicts, and mass graves associated with human rights violations. Therefore, for victim identification, techniques utilizing the dentition to estimate the first parameters of identity (e.g., age) can be critical. This analysis was undertaken to apply a Bayesian statistical method, transition analysis, based on the Gompertz-Makeham (GM) hazard model, to estimate individual ages-at-death for Balkan populations utilizing dental wear. Dental wear phases were scored following Smith's eight-phase ordinal scoring method and chart. To estimate age, probability density functions for the posterior distributions of age for each tooth phase are calculated. Transition analysis was utilized to generate a mean age-of-transition from one dental wear phase to the next. The age estimates are based on the calculated age distribution from the GM hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density region for each phase is calculated. By using a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate age, the population's age distribution is taken into account. Therefore, the age estimates are reliable for the Balkan populations, regardless of population or sex differences. The results showed that a vast amount of interpersonal variation in dental wear exists within the current sample and that this method may be most useful for classifying unknown individuals into broad age cohorts rather than small age ranges. PMID:18471201
Choi, Hwa Young; Kim, Jeong Ha; Park, Jee Yoon; Jung, Eun Young; No, Jae Hong; Oh, Kyung Joon
2016-01-01
Objective The aim of this study was to propose simple mathematical formulae to estimate median values of fetal biometry including biparietal diameter (BPD), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL) at each gestational age (GA) easily without looking up the previously established reference values. Methods Simple mathematical formulae to estimate median values of fetal biometric values at each gestational week were inferred. To validate these formulae, three different linear equations were derived from previously reported reference values of median BPD, AC and FL using regression analysis at each gestational week. Finally, calculated data through the inferred formula were compared to retrospectively collected data (observed data). Results The equation revealing the relationship between BPD and GA was: median BPD (cm)=GA (wk)/4. Using this simple mathematical formula, the absolute percentage error between observed data and calculated data ranged from 0.12% to 7.50%. The equation between AC and GA was: median AC (cm)=GA (wk)-5. Through this formula, the absolute percentage error was analyzed same as above and it ranged from 0.30% to 4.76%. Lastly the derived formula between FL and GA was: median FL (cm)=GA (wk)/5 and the absolute percentage error ranged from 4.52% to 16.75%. Conclusion The three simple formulae suggested in our study showed a significantly easy way to estimate the median values of fetal biometry at each gestational week with good reliability. PMID:27004198
Postmenopausal Motherhood Reloaded: Advanced Age and In Vitro Derived Gametes
Cutas, Daniela; Smajdor, Anna
2015-01-01
In this paper we look at the implications of an emerging technology for the case in favor of, or against, postmenopausal motherhood. Technologies such as in vitro derived gametes (sperm and eggs derived from nonreproductive cells) have the potential to influence the ways in which reproductive medicine is practiced, and are already bringing new dimensions to debates in this area. We explain what in vitro derived gametes are and how their development may impact on the case of postmenopausal motherhood. We briefly review some of the concerns that postmenopausal motherhood has raised—and the implications that the successful development, and use in reproduction, of artificial gametes might have for such concerns. The concerns addressed include arguments from nature, risks and efficacy, reduced energy of the mother, and maternal life expectancy. We also consider whether the use of in vitro derived gametes to facilitate postmenopausal motherhood would contribute to reinforcing a narrow, geneticized account of reproduction and a pro-reproductive culture that encourages women to produce genetically related offspring at all costs. PMID:26074667
Tropical dendrochemistry: A novel approach to estimate age and growth from ringless trees
Poussart,P.; Myneni, S.; Lanzirotti, A.
2006-01-01
Although tropical forests play an active role in the global carbon cycle and climate, their growth history remains poorly characterized compared to other ecosystems on the planet. Trees are prime candidates for the extraction of paleoclimate archives as they can be probed sub-annually, are widely distributed and can live for over 1400 years. However, dendrochronological techniques have found limited applications in the tropics because trees often lack visible growth rings. Alternative methods exist (dendrometry, radio- and stable isotopes), but the derived records are either of short-duration, lack seasonal resolution or are prohibitively labor intensive to produce. Here, we show the first X-ray microprobe synchrotron record of calcium (Ca) from a ringless Miliusa velutina tree from Thailand and use it to estimate the tree's age and growth history. The Ca age model agrees within {le}2 years of bomb-radiocarbon age estimates and confirms that the cycles are seasonal. The amplitude of the Ca annual cycle is correlated significantly with growth and annual Ca maxima correlate with the amount of dry season rainfall. Synchrotron measurements are fast and producing sufficient numbers of replicated multi-century tropical dendrochemical climate records now seems analytically feasible.
Baudouin, M; Marengo, M; Pere, A; Culioli, J-M; Santoni, M-C; Marchand, B; Durieux, E D H
2016-02-01
Three methods of age estimation were compared for Dentex dentex. Based on sectioned otoliths, scales appeared to be relevant only up to 5 years and whole otoliths up to 12 years. The maximum estimated age was 36 years, which constitutes to date the oldest age reported. PMID:26563912
77 FR 4000 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2012-01-26
... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2011, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...
78 FR 6289 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-01-30
... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ] ACTION: General notice announcing population estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2012, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...
76 FR 37314 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-06-27
... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2010, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...
75 FR 4343 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-01-27
... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2009, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...
Superconvergence of the derivative patch recovery technique and a posteriorii error estimation
Zhang, Z.; Zhu, J.Z.
1995-12-31
The derivative patch recovery technique developed by Zienkiewicz and Zhu for the finite element method is analyzed. It is shown that, for one dimensional problems and two dimensional problems using tensor product elements, the patch recovery technique yields superconvergence recovery for the derivatives. Consequently, the error estimator based on the recovered derivative is asymptotically exact.
Tang, Nancy; Antoine, Daniel; Hillson, Simon
2014-11-01
The Bang and Ramm method uses root dentine translucency (RDT) length in sectioned or unsectioned teeth as a sole indicator of chronological age at death in adult human remains. The formulae have been tested on modern remains of known age and on modern and archaeological remains of unknown age. This is the first published study of the method on known-age archaeological specimens and tests whether RDT is a good indicator of chronological age in buried human remains. We applied the Bang and Ramm equations to two 18th and 19th century assemblages excavated from the crypt of Christ Church, Spitalfields, and the cemetery of All Hallows by the Tower. Translucency was defined by shining a light through the external unsectioned root surface and was measured from digital images of 583 and 83 nonmolar roots from 126 Spitalfields and 12 All Hallows individuals, respectively, aged 21-81 years. Average absolute difference between real age and estimated age was 10.7 years and 8.4 years for Spitalfields and All Hallows individuals, respectively, with 58% and 75% estimated within 10 years of known age, and 29% and 33% estimated within five years of known age. These estimations are comparable to results from other ageing methods applied to the Spitalfields collection. Ages from both populations were estimated largely to the middle ranges, with younger individuals overestimated and older individuals underestimated. This is a common occurrence when using inverse calibration, where age is treated as the dependent variable and the ageing feature as the independent variable. PMID:25043454
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.
2015-12-01
The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption
Eeg-Derived Estimators of Present and Future Cognitive Performance
Stikic, Maja; Johnson, Robin R.; Levendowski, Daniel J.; Popovic, Djordje P.; Olmstead, Richard E.; Berka, Chris
2011-01-01
Previous electroencephalography (EEG)-based fatigue-related research primarily focused on the association between concurrent cognitive performance and time-locked physiology. The goal of this study was to investigate the capability of EEG to assess the impact of fatigue on both present and future cognitive performance during a 20-min sustained attention task, the 3-choice active vigilance task (3CVT), that requires subjects to discriminate one primary target from two secondary non-target geometric shapes. The current study demonstrated the ability of EEG to estimate not only present, but also future cognitive performance, utilizing a single, combined reaction time (RT), and accuracy performance metric. The correlations between observed and estimated performance, for both present and future performance, were strong (up to 0.89 and 0.79, respectively). The models were able to consistently estimate “unacceptable” performance throughout the entire 3CVT, i.e., excessively missed responses and/or slow RTs, while acceptable performance was recognized less accurately later in the task. The developed models were trained on a relatively large dataset (n = 50 subjects) to increase stability. Cross-validation results suggested the models were not over-fitted. This study indicates that EEG can be used to predict gross-performance degradations 5–15 min in advance. PMID:21927601
Linear Prediction of a True Score from a Direct Estimate and Several Derived Estimates
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Haberman, Shelby J.; Qian, Jiahe
2007-01-01
Statistical prediction problems often involve both a direct estimate of a true score and covariates of this true score. Given the criterion of mean squared error, this study determines the best linear predictor of the true score given the direct estimate and the covariates. Results yield an extension of Kelley's formula for estimation of the true…
A New X-ray/Infrared Age Estimator For Young Stellar Clusters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Getman, Konstantin; Feigelson, Eric; Kuhn, Michael; Broos, Patrick; Townsley, Leisa; Naylor, Tim; Povich, Matthew; Luhman, Kevin; Garmire, Gordon
2013-07-01
The MYStIX (Massive Young Star-Forming Complex Study in Infrared and X-ray; Feigelson et al. 2013) project seeks to characterize 20 OB-dominated young star forming regions (SFRs) at distances <4 kpc using photometric catalogs from the Chandra X-ray Observatory, Spitzer Space Telescope, and UKIRT and 2MASS NIR telescopes. A major impediment to understand star formation in the massive SFRs is the absence of a reliable stellar chronometer to unravel their complex star formation histories. We present estimation of stellar ages using a new method that employs NIR and X-ray photometry, t(JX). Stellar masses are directly derived from absorption-corrected X-ray luminosities using the Lx-Mass relation from the Taurus cloud. J-band magnitudes corrected for absorption and distance are compared to the mass-dependent pre-main-sequence evolutionary models of Siess et al. (2000) to estimate ages. Unlike some other age estimators, t(JX) is sensitive to all stages of evolution, from deeply embedded disky objects to widely dispersed older pre-main sequence stars. The method has been applied to >5500 out of >30000 MYStIX stars in 20 SFRs. As individual t(JX) values can be highly uncertain, we report median ages of samples within (sub)clusters defined by the companion study of Kuhn et al. (2013). Here a maximum likelihood model of the spatial distribution produces an objective assignment of each star to an isothermal ellipsoid or a distributed population. The MYStIX (sub)clusters show 0.5 < t(JX) < 5 Myr. The important science result of our study is the discovery of previously unknown age gradients across many different MYStIX regions and clusters. The t(JX) ages are often correlated with (sub)cluster extinction and location with respect to molecular cores and ionized pillars on the peripheries of HII regions. The NIR color J-H, a surrogate measure of extinction, can serve as an approximate age predictor for young embedded clusters.
Abe, Takashi; Fujita, Eiji; Thiebaud, Robert S; Loenneke, Jeremy P; Akamine, Takuya
2016-09-01
To test the validity of published equations, anterior forearm muscle thickness (MT-ulna) of 158 Japanese older adults (72 men and 86 women) aged 50-79 y was measured with ultrasound. Appendicular lean soft tissue mass (aLM) was estimated from MT-ulna using two equations (body height without [eqn 1] and with [eqn 2]) previously published in the literature. Appendicular lean mass was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorption (DXA), and this method served as the reference criterion. There was a strong correlation between DXA-derived and ultrasound-estimated aLM in both equations (r = 0.882 and r = 0.944). Total error was 2.60 kg for eqn (1) and 1.38 kg for eqn (2). A Bland-Altman plot revealed that there was no systematic bias between DXA-derived and ultrasound-estimated aLM; however, eqn (1) overestimated aLM compared with DXA-derived aLM. Our results suggest that an ultrasound MT-ulna equation that includes body height is appropriate and useful for estimating aLM in Japanese adults. PMID:27321173
Estimating Aircraft Heading Based on Laserscanner Derived Point Clouds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koppanyi, Z.; Toth, C., K.
2015-03-01
Using LiDAR sensors for tracking and monitoring an operating aircraft is a new application. In this paper, we present data processing methods to estimate the heading of a taxiing aircraft using laser point clouds. During the data acquisition, a Velodyne HDL-32E laser scanner tracked a moving Cessna 172 airplane. The point clouds captured at different times were used for heading estimation. After addressing the problem and specifying the equation of motion to reconstruct the aircraft point cloud from the consecutive scans, three methods are investigated here. The first requires a reference model to estimate the relative angle from the captured data by fitting different cross-sections (horizontal profiles). In the second approach, iterative closest point (ICP) method is used between the consecutive point clouds to determine the horizontal translation of the captured aircraft body. Regarding the ICP, three different versions were compared, namely, the ordinary 3D, 3-DoF 3D and 2-DoF 3D ICP. It was found that 2-DoF 3D ICP provides the best performance. Finally, the last algorithm searches for the unknown heading and velocity parameters by minimizing the volume of the reconstructed plane. The three methods were compared using three test datatypes which are distinguished by object-sensor distance, heading and velocity. We found that the ICP algorithm fails at long distances and when the aircraft motion direction perpendicular to the scan plane, but the first and the third methods give robust and accurate results at 40m object distance and at ~12 knots for a small Cessna airplane.
Simultaneous estimation of phase derivative and phase using parallel Kalman filter implementation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kulkarni, Rishikesh; Rastogi, Pramod
2016-06-01
This paper proposes a technique for the simultaneous estimation of interference phase derivative and phase from a complex interferogram recorded in an optical interferometric setup. The complex interferogram is represented as a spatially varying autoregressive process in a given row or column at a time. The phase derivative is estimated from the poles of the transfer function representation of the autoregressive process. The poles are computed using the spatially varying autoregressive coefficients which are estimated by a computationally efficient Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoothing algorithm. The estimated phase derivative is used as a control input to a state space model designed for the phase estimation at each pixel. The unscented Kalman filter is utilized to deal with the nonlinear measurement process for the accurate estimation of the unwrapped phase. Numerical and experimental results substantiate the ability of the proposed method in handling noisy phase fringe patterns.
Jatti, Deepa; Kantaraj, Yashodadevi; Nagaraju, Rakesh; Janardhan, Sujatha; Nataraj, Santana
2013-07-01
The purpose of this study was to estimate chronological age from panoramic radiographs by measuring open apices of seven right or left mandibular teeth in children of South Indian origin. A total of 101 male and female patients aged between 12 and 16 years were selected. The panoramic radiographs of the patient were indirectly digitised. The variables N0, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7 and s were measured using a computer-aided drafting program. Statistical analysis was performed to derive a regression equation for estimation of age. Two variables x3 and x7 contributed significantly to the fit, yielding the following linear regression formula: Age = 16.025-9.445 (x7) + 1.620 (x3). Statistical analysis indicated that the regression equation explained 97.5% of total variance (R(2) = 0.975). The median of the residuals was -0.0348 years with an interquartile range (IQR) of 0.2520 years. The derived regression equations from these variables can serve as an invaluable tool in estimating the age of children between 12 and 16 years of South Indian origin. PMID:23756511
Reactivity measurement in estimation of benzoquinone and benzoquinone derivatives' allergenicity.
Mbiya, Wilbes; Chipinda, Itai; Simoyi, Reuben H; Siegel, Paul D
2016-01-01
Benzoquinone (BQ) and benzoquinone derivatives (BQD) are used in the production of dyes and cosmetics. While BQ, an extreme skin sensitizer, is an electrophile known to covalently modify proteins via Michael Addition (MA) reaction whilst halogen substituted BQD undergo nucleophilic vinylic substitution (SNV) mechanism onto amine and thiol moieties on proteins, the allergenic effects of adding substituents on BQ have not been reported. The effects of inserting substituents on the BQ ring has not been studied in animal assays. However, mandated reduction/elimination of animals used in cosmetics testing in Europe has led to an increased need for alternatives for the prediction of skin sensitization potential. Electron withdrawing and electron donating substituents on BQ were assessed for effects on BQ reactivity toward nitrobenzene thiol (NBT). The NBT binding studies demonstrated that addition of EWG to BQ as exemplified by the chlorine substituted BQDs increased reactivity while addition of EDG as in the methyl substituted BQDs reduced reactivity. BQ and BQD skin allerginicity was evaluated in the murine local lymph node assay (LLNA). BQD with electron withdrawing groups had the highest chemical potency followed by unsubstituted BQ and the least potent were the BQD with electron donating groups. The BQD results demonstrate the impact of inductive effects on both BQ reactivity and allergenicity, and suggest the potential utility of chemical reactivity data for electrophilic allergen identification and potency ranking. PMID:26612505
Estimation of lower crust magnetization form satellite derived anomaly field
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schnetzler, C. C.; Allenby, R. J.
1983-01-01
Various lines of evidence point to the lower crust as the source of the long-wavelength magnetic anomaly field measured by the POGO and Magsat satellites. Using seismically determined lower crust thicknesses and equivalent source inversion of the satellite anomaly data, magnetization for the lower crust for much of the United States has been calculated. The average magnetization for two hundred sixty-six 150 x 150 km areas is 3.5 A/m with a standard deviation of 1.1 A/m. These values are consistent with laboratory measurements of mafic-ultramafic rocks expected in the lower crust, and in agreement with previous estimates of lower crust magnetization based on long-wavelength aeromagnetic data. Average lower crust thickness for the same areas is 18.2 km (sigma = 6.4). Thus, over large regions, it appears that variation in magnetization and variation in magnetic layer thickness contribute almost equally in causing the anomaly field variation at satellite altitude.
The effects of racemization rate for age estimation of pink teeth.
Sakuma, Ayaka; Saitoh, Hisako; Ishii, Namiko; Iwase, Hirotaro
2015-03-01
Pink teeth is thought to result from the seepage of hemoglobin caused by dental pulp decomposition. We investigated whether racemization can be applied for age estimation in cases of pink teeth where the whole tooth is used. The pink teeth used were three cases and the normal teeth for control were five mandibular canines of known age. Age of the pink teeth was calculated on the basis of regression formula obtained from the five control teeth. Only a slight error was noted between the actual and estimated ages of the pink teeth (R(2) = 0.980, r = 0.990): Cases 1-3 actually aged 23, 53, and 59 years were estimated to be 26, 52, and 60 years. Based on our results of testing pink teeth of known age, we suggest that racemization techniques allow for the age estimation of pink teeth using the same methods for normally colored teeth. PMID:25684096
Estimation of Gestational Age, Using Neonatal Anthropometry: A Cross-sectional Study in India
Thawani, Rajat; Faridi, M.M.A.; Arora, Shilpa Khanna; Kumar, Rajeev
2013-01-01
Prematurity is a significant contributor to neonatal mortality in India. Conventionally, assessment of gestational age of newborns is based on New Ballard Technique, for which a paediatric specialist is needed. Anthropometry of the newborn, especially birthweight, has been used in the past to predict the gestational age of the neonate in peripheral health facilities where a trained paediatrician is often not available. We aimed to determine if neonatal anthropometric parameters, viz. birthweight, crown heel-length, head-circumference, mid-upper arm-circumference, lower segment-length, foot-length, umbilical nipple distance, calf-circumference, intermammary distance, and hand-length, can reliably predict the gestational age. The study also aimed to derive an equation for the same. We also assessed if these neonatal anthropometric parameters had a better prediction of gestational age when used in combination compared to individual parameters. We evaluated 1,000 newborns in a cross-sectional study conducted in Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital in Delhi. Detailed anthropometric estimation of the neonates was done within 48 hours after birth, using standard techniques. Gestational age was estimated using New Ballard Scoring. Out of 1,250 consecutive neonates, 1,000 were included in the study. Of them, 800 randomly-selected newborns were used in devising the model, and the remaining 200 newborns were used in validating the final model. Quadratic regression analysis using stepwise selection was used in building the predictive model. Birthweight (R=0.72), head-circumference (R=0.60), and mid-upper arm-circumference (R=0.67) were found highly correlated with gestation. The final equation to assess gestational age was as follows: Gestational age (weeks)=5.437×W–0.781×W2+2.815×HC–0.041×HC2+0.285×MUAC–22.745 where W=Weight, HC=Head-circumference and MUAC=Mid-upper arm-circumference; Adjusted R=0.76. On validation, the predictability of this equation is 46% (±1 week), 75
Thermoluminescence and new 14C age estimates for late quaternary loesses in southwestern Nebraska
Maat, P.B.; Johnson, W.C.
1996-01-01
Loess of late Quaternary age mantles most of Nebraska south of the Platte River Valley. At least five late Quaternary loesses are recognized: from oldest to youngest, one or more undifferentiated pre-lllinoian loesses, the Loveland Loess, the Gilman Canyon Loess, which exhibits a well developed soil and rests unconformably on the Sangamon soil, the Peoria Loess capped by the Brady soil, and the Bignell Loess, which is distributed discontinuously. Previous research shows that the Loveland Loess is Illinoian. the Gilman Canyon Loess and Peoria Loess are Wisconsin, and the Bignell Loess is Holocene. We present here the first thermoluminescence (TL) age estimates and new C ages for these late Quaternary loesses at two key sections in southwestern Nebraska, the Eustis ash pit and the Bignell Hill road cut. TL age estimates from all samples collected from Eustis ash pit and Bignell Hill were internally consistent. TL and C age estimates from these two sections generally agree and support previous age determinations. The TL age estimate on Loveland Loess indicates deposition at 163 ka. TL and radiocarbon age estimates indicate that Oilman Canyon Loess, believed to be deposited during the Farmdale interstade, first began to accumulate at about 40 ka: the lower part of the Gilman Canyon Loess is 36 ka at Eustis and the middle of the unit is 30 ka at Bignell Hill. The lower and upper parts of the Peoria Loess give age estimates of 24 ka and 17 ka, respectively. TL age estimates for deposition of the Bignell Loess are 9 ka near the base, in agreement with radiocarbon age estimates, and 6 ka immediately below the modern soil, substantiating its Holocene age. Comparisons of TL age estimates with ??18O and insolation curves which show loess deposition during interglacial and interstadial as well as glacial periods, indicate that loess deposition on the Great Plains can occur under a variety of climatic conditions.
A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO DERIVING AGES OF INDIVIDUAL FIELD WHITE DWARFS
O'Malley, Erin M.; Von Hippel, Ted; Van Dyk, David A. E-mail: dvandyke@imperial.ac.uk
2013-09-20
We apply a self-consistent and robust Bayesian statistical approach to determine the ages, distances, and zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) masses of 28 field DA white dwarfs (WDs) with ages of approximately 4-8 Gyr. Our technique requires only quality optical and near-infrared photometry to derive ages with <15% uncertainties, generally with little sensitivity to our choice of modern initial-final mass relation. We find that age, distance, and ZAMS mass are correlated in a manner that is too complex to be captured by traditional error propagation techniques. We further find that the posterior distributions of age are often asymmetric, indicating that the standard approach to deriving WD ages can yield misleading results.
Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?
Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.
2014-01-01
New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly
Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?
Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.
2014-01-01
New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lemarchand, Guillermo A.
2004-06-01
Based on the study of several long-term societal indicators we estimate the phase transition between the ``Technological Adolescent Age'' (TAA) and the ``Technological Mature Age'' (TMA). Assuming the ``Principle of Mediocrity'' and using the Drake Equation we estimate a lower threshold for the number of technological civilizations in the galaxy.
The lateral clavicular epiphysis: fusion timing and age estimation.
Langley, Natalie R
2016-03-01
This study utilizes a forensic autopsy sample of twentieth century American Whites (the McCormick Clavicle Collection) to describe the morphology, variation, and fusion timing of the lateral clavicle epiphysis. Clavicles from individuals between 11 and 25 years at the time of death were used to document fusion of the lateral epiphysis (n= 133, 38 females and 95 males). The lateral epiphysis was scored as unfused, fusing, or fused. A linear weighted kappa indicates that this scoring method is highly replicable with almost perfect inter-rater agreement (kappa = 0.849), according to a widely used standard for assessing kappa values. Transition analysis, or probit regression, was employed to quantify fusion timing of the lateral epiphysis. The transition from "unfused" to "fusing" is most likely to occur at 16.5 years in females and 17.5 years in males. The transition from "fusing" to "fused" occurs at age 21 in females and age 20 in males. The earliest age at which fusion began was 15 years (n = 1), but the majority began fusing between 17 and 20 years. Most individuals (98.5 % of the sample) aged >24 years had fused lateral epiphyses. The epiphysis assumes one of two forms: (1) a separate bony flake fusing to the diaphysis or (2) a mound of bone glazing/smoothing over the diaphyseal surface. As socioeconomic status has been cited as the most influential variable on skeletal maturation rates, the fusion ages offered here should not be applied to populations with a socioeconomic status different from the greater US population. PMID:26253853
A Derivation of the Unbiased Standard Error of Estimate: The General Case.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
O'Brien, Francis J., Jr.
This paper is part of a series of applied statistics monographs intended to provide supplementary reading for applied statistics students. In the present paper, derivations of the unbiased standard error of estimate for both the raw score and standard score linear models are presented. The derivations for raw score linear models are presented in…
Shah, Palak H.; Venkatesh, Rashmi
2016-01-01
Objective: To determine and compare the accuracy of pulp/tooth ratio method in mandibular first and second molar teeth in forensic age estimation. Materials and Methods: A total 300 panoramic radiographs of the Gujarati population (187 males and 113 females) were studied. The measurements of Pulp Chamber Height (PCH) and Crown Root Trunk Height (CRTH) were performed on the mandibular first and second molar teeth. The acquired data was subjected to correlation and regression. Results: The pulp chamber crown root trunk height ratios (PCTHR) of both the first (r = −0.609) and second molars (r = −0.422) were significantly correlated with the age of the individual. Individual regression formulae were derived for both the teeth which were then used separately to calculate the age. The standard errors estimate (SEE) for the first and second molars were 8.84 years and 10.11 years, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between chronological and calculated age by both the teeth (P = 1.000). Conclusion: The mandibular first and second molar is a potential tool for age estimation in forensic dentistry. The pulp/tooth ratio of both the teeth is a useful method for forensic age prediction with reasonable accuracy in the Gujarati population.
Estimating migratory game-bird productivity by integrating age ratio and banding data
Zimmerman, G.S.; Link, W.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Sauer, J.R.; Richkus, K.D.; Boomer, G. Scott
2010-01-01
Implications: Several national and international management strategies for migratory game birds in North America rely on measures of productivity from harvest survey parts collections, without a justification of the estimator or providing estimates of precision. We derive an estimator of productivity with realistic measures of uncertainty that can be directly incorporated into management plans or ecological studies across large spatial scales.
Estimation of daily mean air temperature from satellite derived radiometric data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Phinney, D.
1976-01-01
The Screwworm Eradication Data System (SEDS) at JSC utilizes satellite derived estimates of daily mean air temperature (DMAT) to monitor the effect of temperature on screwworm populations. The performance of the SEDS screwworm growth potential predictions depends in large part upon the accuracy of the DMAT estimates.
Kulkarni, Rishikesh; Rastogi, Pramod
2014-09-01
A computationally efficient technique for fringe analysis in digital holographic interferometry using a difference equation representation of the interference field is presented. The spatially varying coefficient of the difference equation is estimated accurately by constraining it in the subspace spanned by the linearly independent basis functions. The coefficient estimated provides an accurate estimation of the interference phase derivative and enables the linear estimation of the interference field. Thereupon, the interference phase is estimated using a simple unwrapping algorithm. The performance of the proposed method is validated with the help of simulation and experimental results. PMID:25401429
Seasonal comparisons of sea ice concentration estimates derived from SSM/I, OKEAN, and RADARSAT data
Belchansky, G.I.; Douglas, D.C.
2002-01-01
concentrations derived from OKEAN-01 and SSM/I satellite imagery were highly correlated during winter, spring, and fall, with mean differences of less than 8.1% (S.D. <15%) for the NASA Team algorithm, and less than 2.8% (S.D. <13.8%) for the Bootstrap algorithm. Respective differences between SSM/I NASA Team and SSM/I Bootstrap total concentrations were less than 5.3% (S.D. <6.9%). Monthly mean differences between SSM/I and OKEAN differed annually by less than 6%, with smaller differences primarily in winter. The NASA Team and Bootstrap algorithms underestimated the total sea ice concentrations relative to the RADARSAT ScanSAR no more than 3.0% (S.D. <9%) and 1.2% (S.D. <7.5%) during cold months, and no more than 12% and 7% during summer, respectively. ScanSAR tended to estimate higher ice concentrations for ice concentrations greater than 50%, when compared to SSM/I during all months. ScanSAR underestimated total sea ice concentration by 2% compared to the OKEAN-01 algorithm during cold months, and gave an overestimation by 2% during spring and summer months. Total NASA Team and Bootstrap sea ice concentration estimates derived from coincident SSM/I and OKEAN-01 data demonstrated mean differences of no more than 5.3% (S.D. <7%), 3.1% (S.D. <5.5%), 2.0% (S.D. <5.5%), and 7.3% (S.D. <10%) for fall, winter, spring, and summer periods, respectively. Large disagreements were observed between the OKEAN and NASA Team results in spring and summer for estimates of the first-year (FY) and multiyear (MY) age classes. The OKEAN-01 algorithm and data tended to estimate, on average, lower concentrations of young or FY ice and higher concentrations of total and MY ice for all months and seasons. Our results contribute to the growing body of documentation about the levels of disparity obtained when seasonal sea ice concentrations are estimated using various types of satellite data and algorithms. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
Vabbalareddy, Raja Sekhar; V Vanga, Narasimha Rao
2014-01-01
ABSTRACT% Dental age is important for treatment planning in the specialities of pedodontics and orthodontics. Although, Demirjian's method was considered standard for dental age estimation, it may not be reliable for all population. Aim: The goal of the study was to evaluate the reliability of Demir-jian's, Haavikko's and Willems method of dental age estimation methods in Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh, India) children. Study design: One hundred and two children of 6 to 14 years old who underwent panaromic digital radiography for routine diagnostic purposes were included. Dental age was calculated using Demirjian's, Haavikko's and Willems methods and compared with chronologic age for each patient. Results: Dental age showed a significant overestimation by Demirjian's method with a mean difference of 0.55 year and underestimation by Haavikko's and Willems methods with a mean difference of 1.95 and 0.20 year respectively when compared with chronologic age. The mean difference between dental age and chronologic age was not significant in Willems method which shows a close relation between dental and chronologic ages. Conclusion: The dental age estimation by Willems method is found to be more accurate than Demirjian's and Haavikko's methods in Visakhapatnam children. How to cite this article: Patnana AK, Vabbalareddy RS, Vanga NRV. Evaluating the Reliability of Three Different Dental Age Estimation Methods in Visakhapatnam Children. Int J Clin Pediatr Dent 2014;7(3):186-191. PMID:25709299
New Method of Age Estimation from Maxillary Sutures Closure in a Thai Population.
Sinthubua, A; Theera-Umpon, N; Auephanwiriyakul, S; Ruengdit, S; Das, S; Mahakkanukrauh, P
2016-01-01
Age estimation is one of the major components of forensic identification. Cranial suture closure has long been used as indicator for age estimation. Maxillary sutures have been less studied for estimation of age at death because they vary in their timing of closure with age. The purpose of this study was to estimate age by examining 190 Thai skulls with age ranging between 15-93 years from Forensic Osteology Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, and Chiang Mai University. Four parts of maxillary suture (incisive, anterior, transverse, and posterior sutures) were investigated the suture obliteration of each suture by computerizing from photograph. The suture were measured by pixel counting.The prediction model which based on the support vector machine (SVM) for regression or support vector regression (SVR) was utilized for data analysis. The results showed high correlation (R2 = 0.9086) between the predicted age and actual age. Plot between actual age group and predicted age in seven groups also revealed high correlation (R2 = 0.9434). These can be implied that we are able to use this SVR model to predict age at death using maxillary suture information.The interesting issue is to further apply this model in more cases to ensure the generalization of the finding. This study is the first attempt to estimate age at death using a new method based on novel analysis which considers a characteristic of relationship between maxillary suture closures with age that are not in linear form. The present study may contribute as a basis knowledge and method for further study of age estimation in archaeological and forensic anthropological contexts, especially when only skull or base of skull are found. PMID:27212570
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Campbell, John P; Mckinney, Marion O
1952-01-01
A summary of methods for making dynamic lateral stability and response calculations and for estimating the aerodynamic stability derivatives required for use in these calculations is presented. The processes of performing calculations of the time histories of lateral motions, of the period and damping of these motions, and of the lateral stability boundaries are presented as a series of simple straightforward steps. Existing methods for estimating the stability derivatives are summarized and, in some cases, simple new empirical formulas are presented. Detailed estimation methods are presented for low-subsonic-speed conditions but only a brief discussion and a list of references are given for transonic and supersonic speed conditions.
Schmidt, Sven; Schramm, Danilo; Ribbecke, Sebastian; Schulz, Ronald; Wittschieber, Daniel; Olze, Andreas; Vieth, Volker; Ramsthaler, H Frank; Pfischel, Klaus; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Geserick, Gunther; Schmeling, Andreas
2016-01-01
The dramatic rise in the number of refugees entering Germany means that age estimation for juveniles and young adults whose age is unclear but relevant to legal and official procedures has become more important than ever. Until now, whether and to what extent the combination of methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics has resulted in a reduction of the range of scatter of the summarized age diagnosis has been unclear. Hand skeletal age, third molar mineralization stage and ossification stage of the medial clavicular epiphyses were determined for 307 individuals aged between 10 and 29 at time of death on whom autopsies were performed at the Institutes of Legal Medicine in Berlin, Frankfurt am Main and Hamburg between 2001 and 2011. To measure the range of scatter, linear regression analysis was used to calculate the standard error of estimate for each of the above methods individually and in combination. It was found that combining the above methods led to a reduction in the range of scatter. Due to various limitations of the study, the statistical parameters determined cannot, however, be used for age estimation practice. PMID:26934764
Accuracy and precision of estimating age of gray wolves by tooth wear
Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.; Mech, L.D.
2000-01-01
We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves (Canis lupus) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skulls. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionally by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ?? 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves ???9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Campbell, John P; Mckinney, Marion O
1951-01-01
A summary of methods for making dynamic lateral stability and response calculations and for estimating the aerodynamic stability derivatives required for use in these calculations is presented. The processes of performing calculations of the time histories of lateral motions, of the period and damping of these motions, and of the lateral stability boundaries are presented as a series of simple straightforward steps. Existing methods for estimating the stability derivatives are summarized and, in some cases, simple new empirical formulas are presented. Reference is also made to reports presenting experimental data that should be useful in making estimates of the derivatives. Detailed estimating methods are presented for low-subsonic-speed conditions but only a brief discussion and a list of references are given for transonic- and supersonic-speed conditions.
Deriving Age-Activity Relations in M Dwarf Stars Using Clusters of Known Ages
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Andersen, J. M.; West, A. A.; Covey, K. R.; McDonald, M.; Veilleux, S.; Seth, A.
2011-12-01
We present preliminary results from a study of M dwarf magnetic activity in clusters of known ages with the ultimate goal of constraining the age-activity relation. The age-activity relation provides clues to the mechanisms generating magnetic dynamos, especially in late-type dwarfs where their stellar interiors become fully convective. Broadband griz photometry was obtained for four clusters with ages ranging from ˜110 Myrs to 4 Gyrs. Narrowband images of each cluster were acquired with the Maryland Magellan Tunable Filter, tuned to the frequency of Hα, including a correction for the cluster's radial velocity, and a nearby, similarly sized bandpass sampling the stellar pseudo-continuum. This permits a "photometric" measurement of the Hα emission for each star, and thus a measure of activity. Cluster membership is determined from broadband photometry and comparison to stellar positions from previous studies. We report on our findings for the cluster NGC 2516. Hα measurements are stronger for cluster stars than for field stars of the same magnitude. A clear correlation is seen between our Hα strengths measured by narrowband imaging and previous spectroscopic activity measurements for stars where spectra have been obtained.
Babburi, Suresh; Nelakurthi, Hasini; Aparna, V; Soujanya, P; Kotti, Ajay Benarji; Ganipineni, Kiranmai
2015-01-01
Background: Age estimation is an important factor in establishing the identity of a person. Among various techniques, dental age estimation is helpful in estimating the age in children above 16 years of age. Determination of age using developmental stages of teeth is more useful than using tooth eruption. Materials and Methods: A total of 550 orthopantomographs of 248 males and 302 females aged between 15 and 22 years were taken and evaluated by Demirjian’s tooth mineralization stages. Statistical assessment was done using logistic regression analysis. Results: Complete apical closure of third molars was observed at the age of 20.4 years in 50% of males. Gender is also thought to influence mineralization and males showed early apical closure than females. Mean value testing is also done but showed influence of high and lower end age groups on age estimation. Conclusion: Finally, we conclude that, though the exact age of a person cannot be determined, the Demirjian’s stage at which 18 years of age is attained can be found out. PMID:26028903
The utility of near infrared spectroscopy for age estimation of deepwater sharks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rigby, Cassandra L.; Wedding, Brett B.; Grauf, Steve; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.
2014-12-01
Reliable age information is vital for effective fisheries management, yet age determinations are absent for many deepwater sharks as they cannot be aged using traditional methods of growth bands counts. An alternative approach to ageing using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated using dorsal fin spines, vertebrae and fin clips of three species of deepwater sharks. Ages were successfully estimated for the two dogfish, Squalus megalops and Squalus montalbani, and NIRS spectra were correlated with body size in the catshark, Asymbolus pallidus. Correlations between estimated-ages of the dogfish dorsal fin spines and their NIRS spectra were good, with S. megalops R2=0.82 and S. montalbani R2=0.73. NIRS spectra from S. megalops vertebrae and fin clips that have no visible growth bands were correlated with estimated-ages, with R2=0.89 and 0.76, respectively. NIRS has the capacity to non-lethally estimate ages from fin spines and fin clips, and thus could significantly reduce the numbers of sharks that need to be lethally sampled for ageing studies. The detection of ageing materials by NIRS in poorly calcified deepwater shark vertebrae could potentially enable ageing of this group of sharks that are vulnerable to exploitation.
Accuracy of Four Dental Age Estimation Methods in Southern Indian Children
Sanghvi, Praveen; Perumalla, Kiran Kumar; Srinivasaraju, D.; Srinivas, Jami; Kalyan, U. Siva; Rasool, SK. Md. Iftekhar
2015-01-01
Introduction: For various forensic investigations of both living and dead individuals, the knowledge of the actual age or date of birth of the subject is of utmost importance. In recent years, age estimation has gained importance for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility, and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement. Developing teeth are used to assess maturity and estimate age in number of disciplines; however the accuracy of different methods has not been assessed systematically. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of four dental age estimation methods. Materials and Methods: Digital Orthopantomographs (OPGS) of South Indian children between the ages of 6 and 16 y who visited the department of Department of Oral medicine and Radiology of GITAM Dental College, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India with similar ethnic origin were assessed. Dental age was calculated using Demirjian, Willems, Nolla, and adopted Haavikko methods and the difference between estimated dental age and chronological age were compared with paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: An overestimation of the dental age was observed by using Demirjian and Nolla methods (0.1±1.63, 0.47±0.83 years in total sample respectively) and an underestimation of dental age was observed by using Willems and Haavikko methods (-0.4±1.53, -2.9±1.41 years respectively in total sample). Conclusion: Nolla’s method was more accurate in estimating dental age compared to other methods. Moreover, all the four methods were found to be reliable in estimating age of individuals of unknown chronological age in South Indian children. PMID:25738008
Whiteman, K.W.; Travnichek, V.H.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.; Papoulias, D.; Tillett, D.
2004-01-01
Numerous studies have examined the age and growth of shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, but only one study attempted to validate age estimation techniques. Therefore, our objective was to use marginal increment analysis to validate annulus formation in pectoral fin rays of shovelnose sturgeon collected from the Missouri River. We also compared the precision of age estimates between two different readers. Marginal increment distance indicated that for most of the populations an opaque band was laid down in pectoral fin rays during the summer. However, opaque bands were formed throughout the year in some individuals, which could be problematic when using fin rays for age estimation. The agreement of age estimates by two readers for shovelnose sturgeon was only 18%, and differences in ages between the two readers increased for older fish. The presence of split annuli, false annuli, spawning bands, imbedded rays, and deteriorating sections made individual growth rings difficult to separate. Our findings verified that opaque bands are formed annually during the summer in the pectoral fin rays of most shovelnose sturgeon, but some individuals form opaque bands during other times. Pectoral fin rays will probably continue to be the most practical method of age estimation in shovelnose sturgeon, but ages estimated by this method should be used with caution.
Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data
Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.
2014-01-01
It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.
An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes
Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold, Jr.; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.
2011-01-01
Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.
A test of the Lamendin method of age estimation in South African canines.
Ackermann, Anja; Steyn, Maryna
2014-03-01
Age estimation in unknown adult skeletons remains a considerable problem in forensic anthropology. In 1992, Lamendin et al. published a non-destructive method of age estimation on single rooted teeth. With this method, periodontosis and root transparency are judged against root height, and these are then used in regression formulae to estimate age. The aim of this study was to test the accuracy of the Lamendin method on a large sample of canines of South Africans, and if necessary to adapt the formulae for this population. A sample of known sex, age and population group was used. This included 537 upper and lower canines from 498 skulls, and included black males, black females, white males and white females. The age of the individuals ranged from 20 to 90 years. The original formulae gave relatively poor results, and in an attempt to obtain better accuracy the formulae were adapted with the current data. Even after adaptation of the formulae, the highest correlation between estimated age and actual age remained low (R(2)=0.41), with mean errors ranging between 12 and 15 years. Periodontosis was better correlated with age than root transparency. The accuracy of the method was found to be much lower than what was originally published, but probably reflects biological reality and is on a par with other methods of adult age estimation. PMID:24445081
Bednarek, Jarosław
2006-01-01
Chronological age assessment of young persons featuring in pornographic pictures and videos is crucial to prove a violation of law. The paper discusses possibilities of and difficulties inherent in age estimation in cases of production and distribution of child pornography. The presented problems were divided into technical and individual development-associated issues. Technical difficulties included lack of a reference system for biological features reconstruction, poor quality and resolution of pictures or movies, pictures retouching and photomontage. The author stressed that biological hindrances in age assessment were the consequences of interpersonal variation of developmental patterns, namely overlapping of ranges typical for feature values at particular ages and biological variations between different human populations. The described problems can render age estimation impossible or far from precise. Developing more accurate methods of estimating age from pictures and videos requires the collaboration of specialists in the field of auxology, anthropology, pediatrics, as well as experts in photography and video techniques. PMID:17131758
Estimation of age of Dali-Ganis rifting and associated volcanic activity, Venus
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Basilevsky, A. T.
1993-01-01
This paper deals with the estimation of age for the Dali and Ganis Chasma rift zones and their associated volcanism based on photogeologic analysis of stratigraphic relations of rift-associated features with impact craters which have associated features indicative of their age. The features are radar-dark and parabolic, and they are believed to be mantles of debris derived from fallout of the craters' ejecta. They are thought to be among the youngest features on the Venusian surface, so their 'parent' craters must also be very young, evidently among the youngest 10 percent of Venus' crater population. Dali Chasma and Ganis Chasma are a part of a system of rift zones contained within eastern Aphrodite and Atla Regio which is a significant component of Venus tectonics. The rifts of this system are fracture belts which dissect typical Venusian plains with rare islands of tessera terrain. The rift zone system consists of several segments following each other (Diane, Dali, Ganis) and forming the major rift zone line, about 10,000 km long, which has junctions with several other rift zones, including Parga Chasma Rift. The junctions are usually locations of rift-associated volcanism in the form of volcanic edifices (Maat and Ozza Montes) or plain-forming flows flooding some areas within the rift zones and the adjacent plains.
Estimating age of sea otters with cementum layers in the first premolar
Bodkin, J.L.; Ames, J.A.; Jameson, R.J.; Johnson, A.M.; Matson, G.M.
1997-01-01
We assessed sources of variation in the use of tooth cementum layers to determine age by comparing counts in premolar tooth sections to known ages of 20 sea otters (Enhydra lutris). Three readers examined each sample 3 times, and the 3 readings of each sample were averaged by reader to provide the mean estimated age. The mean (SE) of known age sample was 5.2 years (1.0) and the 3 mean estimated ages were 7.0 (1.0), 5.9 (1.1) and, 4.4 (0.8). The proportion of estimates accurate to within +/- 1 year were 0.25, 0.55, and 0.65 and to within +/- 2 years 0.65, 0.80, and 0.70, by reader. The proportions of samples estimated with >3 years error were 0.20, 0.10, and 0.05. Errors as large as 7, 6, and 5 years were made among readers. In few instances did all readers uniformly provide either accurate (error 1 yr) counts. In most cases (0.85), 1 or 2 of the readers provided accurate counts. Coefficients of determination (R2) between known ages and mean estimated ages were 0.81, 0.87, and 0.87, by reader. The results of this study suggest that cementum layers within sea otter premolar teeth likely are deposited annually and can be used for age estimation. However, criteria used in interpreting layers apparently varied by reader, occasionally resulting in large errors, which were not consistent among readers. While large errors were evident for some individual otters, there were no differences between the known and estimated age-class distribution generated by each reader. Until accuracy can be improved, application of this ageing technique should be limited to sample sizes of at least 6-7 individuals within age classes of >/=1 year.
Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation
Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han
2016-01-01
Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages. PMID:27367691
Age estimation of an Indian population by using the Kim's scoring system of occlusal tooth wear
Telang, Lahari A.; Patil, Karthikeya; Mahima, V. G.
2014-01-01
Context: Age is one of the prime factors employed to establish the identity of an individual and the use of teeth for this purpose has been considered reliable. Tooth wear is widely accepted as a physiological consequence of aging and evaluation of tooth wear can be a simple and convenient tool to estimate age in adults. Aims: The present study was conducted to record the degree of tooth wear among Indian adults and to estimate their ages from the degree of tooth wear based on Kim's scoring system. Materials and Methods: Dental stone casts of 120 participants were used to assess the degree of occlusal tooth wear based on the criteria given by Kim et al. Statistical Analysis Used: The age of all subjects was estimated based on these scores using multiple regression analysis function. Results: The degree of tooth wear showed a significant positive correlation with age in each and every examined tooth of both males and females. The predicted age was within ± 5 years of actual age in 70% of males and 68.3% females, and within ± 3 years of actual age in 50% of males and 50.1% of females. Conclusions: Kim's scoring system has proven to be a useful tool in estimation of age using occlusal wear in an Indian population with a high level of accuracy in adults. PMID:24695780
How old am I? Age estimation in living adults: a case report.
Cattaneo, C; De Angelis, D; Ruspa, M; Gibelli, D; Cameriere, R; Grandi, M
2008-12-01
Age estimation is a common task in forensic medicine. Odontologists are frequently involved in the age assessment of human remains or living juveniles. The need to estimate the age of living individuals is becoming more frequent, because of the increasing number of immigrants (illegal or otherwise) without acceptable identification documents and with missing or uncertain birth dates. Whereas age estimation in subadults is usually performed by methods based on the physiological growth of bones and teeth, in the case of living adults age determination is more difficult, because body maturation has come to an end and the most commonly used procedures in forensics on human remains are too invasive for the living individual. The following case report aims at highlighting the difficulties of performing age estimation in the living adult and the importance of a multidisciplinary approach including forensic odontology: a middle-aged woman from Ethiopia who was supposed to be 62 years old (according to one set of documents), was removed from employment lists as she had reached the retirement age for Italy. However another set of documents indicated a younger age (46 years). Hormonal dosage of E2 (17-β estradiol) and FSH (Follicle Stimulating Hormone) showed an age close to the begininng of menopause. An experimental dental method, based on the decrease of canine pulp chamber with age, was performed in order to obtain more information: the result was an estimation of a 47-57 age range. Combined results suggested that it was more likely that the actual age of the woman was closer to 46 than to 62. PMID:22717788
Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy
Ting, Hua-Nong
2014-01-01
Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595
García-Donas, Julieta G; Dyke, Jeffrey; Paine, Robert R; Nathena, Despoina; Kranioti, Elena F
2016-02-01
Most age estimation methods are proven problematic when applied in highly fragmented skeletal remains. Rib histomorphometry is advantageous in such cases; yet it is vital to test and revise existing techniques particularly when used in legal settings (Crowder and Rosella, 2007). This study tested Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994) histological age estimation methods on a Modern Greek sample using different sampling sites. Six left 4th ribs of known age and sex were selected from a modern skeletal collection. Each rib was cut into three equal segments. Two thin sections were acquired from each segment. A total of 36 thin sections were prepared and analysed. Four variables (cortical area, intact and fragmented osteon density and osteon population density) were calculated for each section and age was estimated according to Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994). The results showed that both methods produced a systemic underestimation of the individuals (to a maximum of 43 years) although a general improvement in accuracy levels was observed when applying the Stout et al. (1994) formula. There is an increase of error rates with increasing age with the oldest individual showing extreme differences between real age and estimated age. Comparison of the different sampling sites showed small differences between the estimated ages suggesting that any fragment of the rib could be used without introducing significant error. Yet, a larger sample should be used to confirm these results. PMID:26698389
Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula
Cugati, Navaneetha; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Srinivasan, Balamanikanda; Karthikeyan, Priyadarshini
2015-01-01
Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere's method of age estimation. The subjects’ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g), ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s), number of tooth with completed root formation (N0) and the first-order interaction between s and N0. Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553No -1.096s - 0.380s.No, where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere's formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size. PMID:26816464
Egg flotation estimates nest age for Pacific and Red-throated Loons
Rizzolo, D.J.; Schmutz, J.A.
2007-01-01
We used Pacific Loon (Gavia pacifica) and Red-throated Loon (G. stellata) nests with known ages to gauge the efficacy of egg flotation for determining nest age in coastal Alaska. Egg flotation accurately estimated nest age for both species; the mean ?? 1SD difference between known age and age determined with egg flotation was - 0.05 ?? 2.00 d and -0.02 ?? 1.63 d for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, respectively. Day of nest initiation did not influence the relationship between known nest age and nest age estimated with egg flotation, indicating incubation period was not shortened in nests initiated later in the season. Additionally, we found no difference in the ability of egg flotation to estimate nest age between two widely dispersed study sites for Pacific Loons, and only a small difference between two of three widely dispersed study sites for Red-throated Loons. Thus, our described relationships between egg flotation categories and nest age should be broadly applicable for these holarctic species. We conclude that for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, egg flotation is a useful technique for determining nest age in the field to better monitor nest fate, and to quantify nest age effects on nest daily survival rate.
Maggio, Ariane; Flavel, Ambika; Hart, Rob; Franklin, Daniel
2016-06-01
Various age estimation techniques have been utilised in Australia to evaluate the age of individuals who do not have documentation to determine legal majority/culpability. These age estimation techniques rely on the assessment of skeletal development as visualised in radiographs, CT scans, MRI or ultrasound modalities, and subsequent comparison to reference standards. These standards are not always population specific and are thus known to be less accurate when applied outside of the original reference sample, leading to potential ethical implications. Therefore, the present study aims to: (i) explore the variation in developmental trajectories between the established Tanner-Whitehouse (TW) age estimation standards and a Western Australian population; and (ii) develop specific hand-wrist age estimation standards for the latter population. The present study examines digital anterior-posterior hand-wrist radiographs of 360 individuals 0 to 24.9 years of age, equally represented by sex. Each radiograph was assessed using the RUS, Carpal and 20-bone methods of Tanner et al. The standard error of the estimate (SEE) was calculated for each method (range: ♀ SEE ±0.4-11.5 years; ♂ SEE ±0.9-10.1 years). The most accurate method was TW3 RUS for females and the TW2 Carpal system for males. The 50th centile skeletal maturity scores for each year age group were plotted against average chronological age to produce polynomial regression standards with a demonstrated accuracy of (♀ SEE ±0.09-3.46 years; ♂ SEE ±0.02-3.42 years) for females and males, respectively. The standards presented here can be used in future forensic investigations that require age estimation of hand-wrist bones in a Western Australian population, however, they are not appropriate for establishing age of majority (18 years), as skeletal maturity was attained on average earlier than 15 years of age in both sexes for all three systems examined. PMID:27080619
Permeability estimation from log-derived porosity II. Via co-kriging
Fang, Jen Ho; Pu, Zhi Wei . Dept. of Geology)
1993-03-01
In paper (I) (given at this meeting), the authors applied fuzzy regression to the problem of permeability estimation from porosity-log data. In this paper, they introduce another novel approach, co-kriging. Co-kriging is a multivariate geostatistical technique designed for characterizing joint spatial correlations between pairs of variables (log-derived porosity vs. core-derived permeability in the context of this paper). In other words, co-kriging yields estimates that use not only the information from direct measurements of the variables being estimated, but also the information from measurements of a second variable. Thus, co-kriging can be used to predict permeability at uncored wells. This is a powerful technique because they usually have more log data than core data. By making use of co-kriging they can make good use of the log-derived porosity data. Results of the study using the data from Chunchula field illustrate the power of this technique.
Karadayi, Beytullah; Kaya, Ahsen; Kolusayın, Melek Ozlem; Karadayi, Sükriye; Afsin, Hüseyin; Ozaslan, Abdi
2012-11-01
Radiographic evaluation of mineralization and eruption stages of third molars using dental panoramic radiographies can be an efficient tool for chronological age estimation in both forensic sciences and legal medicine. The third molar tooth is utilized for dental age estimation about the age span of 15-23 years because it represents the only tooth still in development. The aim of this study is to obtain and analyze data regarding third molar development and eruption in Turkish population for dental age estimation. A total of 744 dental panoramic radiographies of 394 female and 350 male subjects aged between 8 and 22 years were examined. Third molar development was determined according to the Nolla classification system, and eruption was assessed relative to the alveolar bone level. Mandibular and maxillary third molars were generally found at similar stages of development on both sides. Nolla stage 6 (completed crown calcification) was reached at around the age of 15 in both maxillary and mandibular third molars in both sexes. Alveolar emergence was at around the age of 16 in males and around age of 17 in females. Although third molars' eruption shows greater variability than development of third molars, data which were obtained from this study about eruption of these teeth can be supportive to development data for age estimation. PMID:23010906
Nur, Bilge; Kusgoz, Adem; Bayram, Mehmet; Nur, Metin; Kayipmaz, Saadettin; Yildirim, Sina
2012-01-01
Objective: To evaluate the applicability of Demirjian and Nolla methods for northeastern Turkish population. Material and Method: A retrospective study was performed on panoramic radiographs of 673 subjects aged 5–15.9 years. The mean dental age (DA) according to the Demirjian and Nolla methods were compared to the mean chronological age (CA). Results: The mean CA of the study sample was 10.37±2.90 and 10.03±2.81 years for females and males, respectively. Using the Demirjian method, the mean estimated DA was 11.26±3.02 years for females and 10.87±2.96 years for males. For Nolla method, the mean estimated DA was 9.80±3.41 and 9.53±3.14 years for females and males, respectively. The mean differences between the CA and DA according to the Demirjian and Nolla methods were 0.86 and -0.54 years for total study sample. Conclusion: Nolla method was found to be a more accurate method for estimating DA in northeastern Turkish population. Key words:Dental age, demirjian method, nolla method, chronological age. PMID:22549686
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lopez-Clavijo, Andrea F.; Duque-Daza, Carlos A.; Romero Canelon, Isolda; Barrow, Mark P.; Kilgour, David; Rabbani, Naila; Thornalley, Paul J.; O'Connor, Peter B.
2014-04-01
Glycation is a post-translational modification (PTM) that affects the physiological properties of peptides and proteins. In particular, during hyperglycaemia, glycation by α-dicarbonyl compounds generate α-dicarbonyl-derived glycation products also called α-dicarbonyl-derived advanced glycation end products. Glycation by the α-dicarbonyl compound known as glyoxal was studied in model peptides by MS/MS using a Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometer. An unusual type of glyoxal-derived AGE with a mass addition of 21.98436 Da is reported in peptides containing combinations of two arginine-two lysine, and one arginine-three lysine amino acid residues. Electron capture dissociation and collisionally activated dissociation results supported that the unusual glyoxal-derived AGE is formed at the guanidino group of arginine, and a possible structure is proposed to illustrate the 21.9843 Da mass addition.
Kimura, Misaka; Mizuta, Chinatsu; Yamada, Yosuke; Okayama, Yasuko; Nakamura, Eitaro
2012-02-01
A standardized method for assessing the physical fitness of elderly adults has not yet been established. In this study, we developed an index of physical fitness age (fitness age score, FAS) for older Japanese adults and investigated sex differences based on the estimated FAS. Healthy elderly adults (52 men, 70 women) who underwent physical fitness tests once yearly for 7 years between 2002 and 2008 were included in this study. The age of the participants at the beginning of this study ranged from 60.0 to 83.0 years. The physical fitness tests consisted of 13 items to measure balance, agility, flexibility, muscle strength, and endurance. Three criteria were used to evaluate fitness markers of aging: (1) significant cross-sectional correlation with age; (2) significant longitudinal change with age consistent with the cross-sectional correlation; and (3) significant stability of individual differences. We developed an equation to assess individual FAS values using the first principal component derived from principal component analysis. Five candidate fitness markers of aging (10-m walking time, functional reach, one leg stand with eyes open, vertical jump and grip strength) were selected from the 13 physical fitness tests. Individual FAS was predicted from these five fitness markers using a principal component model. Individual FAS showed high longitudinal stability for age-related changes. This investigation of the longitudinal changes of individual FAS revealed that women had relatively lower physical fitness compared with men, but their rate of physical fitness aging was slower than that of men. PMID:21424789
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Streubel, D. P.; Kodama, K.
2014-12-01
To provide continuous flash flood situational awareness and to better differentiate severity of ongoing individual precipitation events, the National Weather Service Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) is being implemented over Hawaii and Alaska. In the implementation process of RDHM, three gridded precipitation analyses are used as forcing. The first analysis is a radar only precipitation estimate derived from WSR-88D digital hybrid reflectivity, a Z-R relationship and aggregated into an hourly ¼ HRAP grid. The second analysis is derived from a rain gauge network and interpolated into an hourly ¼ HRAP grid using PRISM climatology. The third analysis is derived from a rain gauge network where rain gauges are assigned static pre-determined weights to derive a uniform mean areal precipitation that is applied over a catchment on a ¼ HRAP grid. To assess the effect of different QPE analyses on the accuracy of RDHM simulations and to potentially identify a preferred analysis for operational use, each QPE was used to force RDHM to simulate stream flow for 20 USGS peak flow events. An evaluation of the RDHM simulations was focused on peak flow magnitude, peak flow timing, and event volume accuracy to be most relevant for operational use. Results showed RDHM simulations based on the observed rain gauge amounts were more accurate in simulating peak flow magnitude and event volume relative to the radar derived analysis. However this result was not consistent for all 20 events nor was it consistent for a few of the rainfall events where an annual peak flow was recorded at more than one USGS gage. Implications of this indicate that a more robust QPE forcing with the inclusion of uncertainty derived from the three analyses may provide a better input for simulating extreme peak flow events.
Age estimation standards for a Western Australian population using the coronal pulp cavity index.
Karkhanis, Shalmira; Mack, Peter; Franklin, Daniel
2013-09-10
Age estimation is a vital aspect in creating a biological profile and aids investigators by narrowing down potentially matching identities from the available pool. In addition to routine casework, in the present global political scenario, age estimation in living individuals is required in cases of refugees, asylum seekers, human trafficking and to ascertain age of criminal responsibility. Thus robust methods that are simple, non-invasive and ethically viable are required. The aim of the present study is, therefore, to test the reliability and applicability of the coronal pulp cavity index method, for the purpose of developing age estimation standards for an adult Western Australian population. A total of 450 orthopantomograms (220 females and 230 males) of Australian individuals were analyzed. Crown and coronal pulp chamber heights were measured in the mandibular left and right premolars, and the first and second molars. These measurements were then used to calculate the tooth coronal index. Data was analyzed using paired sample t-tests to assess bilateral asymmetry followed by simple linear and multiple regressions to develop age estimation models. The most accurate age estimation based on simple linear regression model was with mandibular right first molar (SEE ±8.271 years). Multiple regression models improved age prediction accuracy considerably and the most accurate model was with bilateral first and second molars (SEE ±6.692 years). This study represents the first investigation of this method in a Western Australian population and our results indicate that the method is suitable for forensic application. PMID:23664550
Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement.
Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung
2015-01-01
Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282
Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement
Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung
2015-01-01
Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282
Derivation and growth characteristics of dental pulp stem cells from patients of different ages.
Wu, Wei; Zhou, Jian; Xu, Chong-Tao; Zhang, Jie; Jin, Yan-Jiao; Sun, Geng-Lin
2015-10-01
The dental pulp contains a relatively low number of stem cells; however, it is considered to be a promising source of stem cells for use in regenerative therapy. To date, it has remained elusive whether there are certain differences in the dental pulp stem cells (DPSCs) from donors of different ages. In the present study, DPSC lines were derived using teeth from children, adolescents, adults and aged donors. The derivation efficiency, the proliferative and apoptotic rate, cell marker expression and the differentiation capacity were investigated and compared among these DPSC lines. The derivation efficacy was decreased with increasing donor age. Although a large part of cell surface markers was expressed in all DPSC lines, the expression of CD29 was downregulated in the DPSCs from aged teeth. In addition, the doubling time of DPSCs from aged teeth was prolonged and the number of apoptotic cells was increased with the propagation. These DPSCs were able to differentiate into a neuronal linage, which positively expressed the neuron-specific class III beta-tubulin and microtubule‑associated protein 2, as well as into an osteogenic lineage, which positively expressed CD45; however, these DPSCs from aged teeth were completely or partially deprived of differentiation capacity. By contrast, DPSCs from younger teeth displayed significantly higher vitality and a higher potential for use in dental regenerative medicine. PMID:26239849
Listener estimations of talker age: A meta-analysis of the literature.
Hunter, Eric J; Ferguson, Sarah Hargus; Newman, Catherine Anne
2016-10-01
Numerous studies, most of them cross-sectional studies using one sample per talker, have demonstrated that listeners make relatively accurate age judgments from hearing talkers' voices. The current study analyzed the results of several such direct age estimation studies to characterize better the perception of talker age over a larger number of individuals. A review of the direct age estimation literature was performed. Data sets from seven papers were reconstituted, and an analysis of the combined data (meta-analysis) including 530 data points was conducted. The reconstituted and combined data included talkers aged 10-90. Listeners appeared to overestimate age when talkers were younger and to underestimate it when talkers were older. PMID:26079468
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
We report on the accuracy of using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to predict the age of Anopheles mosquitoes reared from wild larvae and a mixed age-wild adult population collected from pit traps after exposure to pyrethroids. The mosquitoes reared from wild larvae were estimated as ,7 or $7 d ol...
Comparison of rainbow smelt age estimates from fin rays and otoliths
Walsh, M.G.; Maloy, A.P.; O'Brien, T. P.
2008-01-01
Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, although nonnative, are an important component of the offshore food web in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Ontario, we estimate ages of rainbow smelt annually to study population dynamics such as year-class strength and age-specific growth and mortality. Since the early 1980s, we have used pectoral fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages, but the sectioning and mounting of fin rays are time and labor intensive. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of using otoliths rather than fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages. Three readers interpreted the ages of 172 rainbow smelt (60-198 mm total length) based on thin sections of pectoral fin rays, whole otoliths with no preparation, and whole otoliths that had been cleared for 1 month in a 70:30 ethanol : glycerin solution. Bias was lower and precision was greater for fin rays than for otoliths; these results were consistent for comparisons within readers (first and second readings by one individual; three readers were used) and between readers (one reading for each reader within a pair). Both otolith methods appeared to misclassify age-1 rainbow smelt. Fin ray ages had the highest precision and provided the best approximation of age estimates inferred from the Lake Ontario population's length frequency distribution and from our understanding of this population. ?? American Fisheries Society 2008.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boenisch, Harald; Engel, Andreas; Keber, Timo
2014-05-01
The age spectrum is the transit time distribution of the fluid constituents in a specific stratospheric air parcel and therefore contains all the information of the air parcel's transport history. Unfortunately, it is not possible to directly measure the age spectrum of a stratospheric air parcel. Only the first moment of the distribution - the mean age of air - is directly observable from observations of passive tracers like SF6 and CO2. However, it is possible to reconstruct the age spectrum from a bunch of chemical active tracers with different stratospheric lifetimes (Schoeberl et al., 2005; Ehhalt et al., 2007) assuming to first order that the age spectrum follows the analytical solution given by Hall and Plumb (1994). Here, we will present empirical age spectra in the extratropical lower stratosphere of the northern hemisphere derived from a dataset gathered during the combined campaigns TACTS (Transport and Composition in the UT/LMS) and ESMVal (Earth System Model Validation). About 20 halocarbons have been measured with the new developed in-situ GC/MS instrument GHOST-MS. These chemical active species have different stratospheric lifetimes ranging from several days (e.g. Methylbromoform) up to several decades (e.g. CFC-12). Ehhalt, D. H., Rohrer, F., Blake, D. R., Kinnison, D. E., and Konopka, P.: On the use of nonmethane hydrocarbons for the determination of age spectra in the lower stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12208, 10.1029/2006jd007686, 2007. Hall, T. M., and Plumb, R. A.: Age as a Diagnostic of Stratospheric Transport, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 1059-1070, 1994. Schoeberl, M. R., Douglass, A. R., Polansky, B., Boone, C., Walker, K. A., and Bernath, P.: Estimation of stratospheric age spectrum from chemical tracers, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D21303, 10.1029/2005jd006125, 2005.
Ramsthaler, F; Proschek, P; Betz, W; Verhoff, M A
2009-05-01
Possible biological side effects of exposure to X-rays are stochastic effects such as carcinogenesis and genetic alterations. In recent years, a number of new studies have been published about the special cancer risk that children may suffer from diagnostic X-rays. Children and adolescents who constitute many of the probands in forensic age-estimation proceedings are considerably more sensitive to the carcinogenic risks of ionizing radiation than adults. Established doses for X-ray examinations in forensic age estimations vary from less than 0.1 microSv (left hand X-ray) up to more than 800 microSv (computed tomography). Computed tomography in children, as a relatively high-dose procedure, is of particular interest because the doses involved are near to the lower limit of the doses observed and analyzed in A-bombing survivor studies. From these studies, direct epidemiological data exist concerning the lifetime cancer risk. Since there is no medical indication for forensic age examinations, it should be stressed that only safe methods are generally acceptable. This paper reviews current knowledge on cancer risks associated with diagnostic radiation and aims to help forensic experts, dentists, and pediatricians evaluate the risk from radiation when using X-rays in age-estimation procedures. PMID:19153756
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jones, Jeremy; White, R. J.; Boyajian, T.; Schaefer, G.; Baines, E.; Ireland, M.; Patience, J.; ten Brummelaar, T.; McAlister, H.; Ridgway, S. T.; Sturmann, J.; Sturmann, L.; Turner, N.; Farrington, C.; Goldfinger, P. J.
2015-11-01
We have observed and spatially resolved a set of seven A-type stars in the nearby Ursa Major moving group with the Classic, CLIMB, and PAVO beam combiners on the Center for High Angular Resolution Astronomy Array. At least four of these stars have large rotational velocities (v{sin}i ≳ 170 {km} {{{s}}}-1) and are expected to be oblate. These interferometric measurements, the stars’ observed photometric energy distributions, and v{sin}i values are used to computationally construct model oblate stars from which stellar properties (inclination, rotational velocity, and the radius and effective temperature as a function of latitude, etc.) are determined. The results are compared with MESA stellar evolution models to determine masses and ages. The value of this new technique is that it enables the estimation of the fundamental properties of rapidly rotating stars without the need to fully image the star. It can thus be applied to stars with sizes comparable to the interferometric resolution limit as opposed to those that are several times larger than the limit. Under the assumption of coevality, the spread in ages can be used as a test of both the prescription presented here and the MESA evolutionary code for rapidly rotating stars. With our validated technique, we combine these age estimates and determine the age of the moving group to be 414 ± 23 Myr, which is consistent with, but much more precise than previous estimates.
The Potential of Chitosan and Its Derivatives in Prevention and Treatment of Age-Related Diseases
Kerch, Garry
2015-01-01
Age-related, diet-related and protein conformational diseases, such as atherosclerosis, diabetes mellitus, cancer, hypercholesterolemia, cardiovascular and neurodegenerative diseases are common in the elderly population. The potential of chitosan, chitooligosaccharides and their derivatives in prevention and treatment of age-related dysfunctions is reviewed and discussed in this paper. The influence of oxidative stress, low density lipoprotein oxidation, increase of tissue stiffness, protein conformational changes, aging-associated chronic inflammation and their pathobiological significance have been considered. The chitosan-based functional food also has been reviewed. PMID:25871293
Scribner, K.T.; Arntzen, J.W.; Burke, T.
1997-01-01
Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number (N(b)) based on a large age-specific variance in minisatellite allele frequency. Estimates of N(b) (range 21-46 for population means across three loci) were ??? 55-230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as N(b) and N(e) based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.
Use of soil catena field data for estimating relative ages of moraines
Birkeland, P.W.; Berry, M.E. ); Swanson, D.K. )
1991-03-01
Soils at the crests of moraines are commonly used to estimate the relative ages of moraines. However, for various pedologic and geomorphic reasons, soil development at crest sites may not truly reflect the time since moraine formation; for example, some crest soils on moraines of greatly different age are similar in morphology and development. Soil catena data for soils at several sites aligned downslope from the crest can greatly improve on the usefulness of soil data for estimating moraine ages. For this purpose, the authors use the weighted mean catena profile development index, which condenses field data for all of the soils in each catena into a single value.
Talabani, Ranjdar M.; Baban, Mohammed T.; Mahmood, Mohammed A.
2015-01-01
Objective: A study was carried out to analyze the efficacy and practical application for age estimation using digital panoramic radiograph to exploit image analysis to obtain metric measurement of morphological parameters of permanent mandibular first molar on Sulaimani population. Materials and Methods: In the present study a population of known age and sex was studied and subjected to digital panoramic radiographic examination. The correlation between the reduction of coronal pulp cavity and chronological age was examined in a sample of 96 individuals distributed into four age groups: 20-29 years (29 cases), 30-39 years (29 cases), 40-49 years (26 cases) and 50-59 years (12 cases). The height (mm) of the crown (CH = coronal height) and the height (mm) of coronal pulp cavity (CPCH = coronal pulp cavity height) of 96 of first molars from all subjects was measured. The tooth–coronal index (TCI) after Ikeda et al. was computed for each tooth and regressed on real age. Results: ANOVA was used to show the strength of relation between the age and TCI (P = 0.0000). The correlation coefficient (r2) was 0.49, which mean there is strong negative linear regression between age and TCI with the r2, regarding predicting age using TCI value, after the following equation calculated, Predicted age = 3.78 – (0.064 TCI) showed that there is no significant difference between real age and estimated age. Conclusion: There is a strong negative liner relationship between TCIs of mandibular first molars with chronological age of Sulaimani population, and age of individuals can therefore be estimated with a good degree of accuracy using regression equations. PMID:26005307
Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Coleman, Phil R
2006-01-01
The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, and a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.
Age Estimation in Living Egyptians Using Signal Joint T-cell Receptor Excision Circle Rearrangement.
Ibrahim, Samah F; Gaballah, Iman F; Rashed, Laila A
2016-07-01
Age estimation is one of the challenges in forensic sciences. There are many techniques to estimate the age. Molecular biology approach is one of these techniques. Signal joint T-cell receptor excision circles gene (sjTRECs), is one of this approach. We aimed to use sjTRECs as a suitable marker for age estimation among Egyptian population. TaqMan qPCR approach was used to quantify sjTREC levels in blood samples obtained from 153 healthy Egyptian individuals ranging from a few weeks to 70 years. Our results showed a significant negative correlation between sjTREC levels and age with p ≤ 0.05. Moreover, the individual's age can be determined through this formula Age = -30.671+ (-5.998Y) (Y is dCtTBP - sjTREC) with standard error ±7.35 years. Within the forensic context, sjTREC' levels can be used to estimate the Egyptian individual's age accurately. PMID:27184828
2013-01-01
Background Clonal propagation is a particular reproductive system found in both the plant and animal kingdoms, from human parasites to clonally propagated crops. Clonal diversity provides information about plant and animal evolutionary history, i.e. how clones spread, or the age of a particular clone. In plants, this could provide valuable information about agrobiodiversity dynamics and more broadly about the evolutionary history of a particular crop. We studied the evolutionary history of yam, Dioscorea rotundata. In Africa, Yam is cultivated by tuber clonal propagation. Results We used 12 microsatellite markers to identify intra-clonal diversity in yam varieties. We then used this diversity to assess the relative ages of clones. Using simulations, we assessed how Approximate Bayesian Computation could use clonal diversity to estimate the age of a clone depending on the size of the sample, the number of independent samples and the number of markers. We then applied this approach to our particular dataset and showed that the relative ages of varieties could be estimated, and that each variety could be ranked by age. Conclusions We give a first estimation of clone age in an approximate Bayesian framework. However the precise estimation of clone age depends on the precision of the mutation rate. We provide useful information on agrobiodiversity dynamics and suggest recurrent creation of varietal diversity in a clonally propagated crop. PMID:24219837
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prakash, O.; Curtis, D. C.; Parames, P. M.; Harris, D. J.
2011-12-01
Satellite-based precipitation estimates with high spatial and temporal resolution, large areal coverage and freely available global data provides a potential alternative source of precipitation data for areas where ground-based precipitation networks are sparse or nonexistent, particularly in the developing countries. This study compares three satellite-derived precipitation products (e.g., TMPA-V6, PERSIANN and CMORPH) and one radar-derived product (MPE data) for the time period from March 2009 to April 2009. We applied the Hovmöller diagrams approach to see the spatial and temporal patterns of the various satellite data products and to identify the storm events falling under the computation domain/basin. The zonal Hovmöller diagrams, a comparative analysis of the radar-derived rainfall rate with the satellite derived rainfall rate shows that the spatial and temporal patterns in the TMPA-V6 rainfall rate generally agree with the MPE rainfall rate. Moreover, the TMPA-V6 precipitation events match closely with MPE events, whereas the PERSIANN data are showing more storm events and magnitude than the MPE. However, in this case, CMORPH data products are estimating very poor storm patterns and magnitude. This study also compares mean areal precipitation (MAP) estimates derived from the above said four data sources and duration. ArcGIS tool was used to compute the MAP for every 3-hour duration over Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin (ACF), United States. The analysis indicates that basin-wide mean area precipitation estimates from satellite-derived TMPA-V6 and PERSIANN data tend to under-estimate the rainfall throughout the two-month analysis. The peaking time trend of satellite data follows the trend of MPE data closely over ACF basin. The cumulative rainfall plots show that the PERSIANN data were less negatively biased than TRMM. However, on an event-by-event basis, satellite methods overestimated in some cases and in some cases underestimated
2014-01-01
Background Human adipose tissue is an ideal autologous source of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) for various regenerative medicine and tissue engineering strategies. Aged patients are one of the primary target populations for many promising applications. It has long been known that advanced age is negatively correlated with an organism’s reparative and regenerative potential, but little and conflicting information is available about the effects of age on the quality of human adipose tissue derived MSCs (hAT-MSCs). Methods To study the influence of age, the expansion and in vitro differentiation potential of hAT-MSCs from young (<30 years), adult (35-50 years) and aged (>60 years) individuals were investigated. MSCs were characterized for expression of the genes p16INK4a and p21 along with measurements of population doublings (PD), superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, cellular senescence and differentiation potential. Results Aged MSCs displayed senescent features when compared with cells isolated from young donors, concomitant with reduced viability and proliferation. These features were also associated with significantly reduced differentiation potential in aged MSCs compared to young MSCs. Conclusions In conclusion, advancing age negatively impacts stem cell function and such age related alterations may be detrimental for successful stem cell therapies. PMID:24397850
Age estimation by pulp/tooth ratio in canines by peri-apical X-rays.
Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi; Belcastro, Maria Giovanna; Bonfiglioli, Benedetta; Rastelli, Elisa; Cingolani, Mariano
2007-01-01
Estimation of age in individuals has received considerable attention in forensic science, in which it is a widely used method for individual identification, together with paleo-demographic analyses to establish mortality patterns in past populations. The present investigation, which is a continuation of a previously published pilot study, was conducted to examine the possible application of the pulp/tooth area ratio by peri-apical images as an indicator of age at death. A total of 200 peri-apical X-rays of upper and lower canines were assembled from 57 male and 43 female skeletons of Caucasian origin, aged between 20 and 79 years. They belong to the Frassetto osteological collection of Sassari (Sardinia) and are housed in the Museum of Anthropology, Department of Experimental and Evolutionistic Biology, University of Bologna. For each skeleton, dental maturity was evaluated by measuring the pulp/tooth area ratio on upper (x(1)) and lower (x(2)) canines. Very good agreement was found between intraobserver measurements. Statistical analysis was performed in order to obtain multiple regression formulae for dental age calculation, with chronological age as dependent variable, and gender, and upper and lower canines as independent variables. Stepwise regression analysis showed that gender did not contribute significantly to the fit (p=0.881) whereas variables x(1) and x(2) and the first-order interaction between them did. These two variables explained 92.5% of variations in estimated chronological age and the residual standard error was 4.06 years. Lastly, two simple linear regression equations were obtained for age estimation using canines from the maxilla and mandible separately. Both models explained 86% of variations in estimated chronological age and allowed an age-at-death estimate with a residual standard error of about 5.4 years. PMID:17209930
Stansfield, Fiona J.
2015-01-01
The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These ‘Age Reference Lines’ were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70–75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified. PMID:25970428
Stansfield, Fiona J
2015-01-01
The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These 'Age Reference Lines' were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70-75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified. PMID:25970428
Paleoglaciation of the Tibetan Plateau based on exposure ages and ELA depression estimates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heyman, Jakob
2014-05-01
The Tibetan Plateau holds a major part of all glaciers outside the polar regions and an ample record of past glaciations. The glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau has attracted significant interest, with a large body of research investigating the extent, timing, and climatic implications of past glaciations. Here I present an extensive compilation of exposure ages and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depression estimates from glacial deposits across the Tibetan Plateau to address the timing and degree of past glaciations. I compiled Be-10 exposure age data for a total of 1877 samples and recalculated exposure ages using an updated (lower) global Be-10 production rate. All samples were organized in groups of individual glacial deposits where each deposit represents one glacial event enabling evaluation of the exposure age clustering. For each glacial deposit I estimated the ELA depression based on a simple toe to headwall ratio approach using Google Earth. To discriminate good (well-clustered) from poor (scattered) exposure age groups the glacial deposits were divided into three groups based on exposure age clustering. A major part of the glacial deposits have scattered exposure ages affected by prior or incomplete exposure, complicating exposure age interpretations. The well-clustered exposure age groups are primarily from mountain ranges along the margins of the Tibetan Plateau with a main peak in age between 10 and 30 ka, indicating glacial advances during the global last glacial maximum (LGM). A large number of exposure ages older than 30 ka indicates maximum glaciation predating the LGM, but the exposure age scatter generally prohibits accurate definition of the glacial chronology. The ELA depression estimates scatter significantly, but a major part is remarkably low. Average ELA depressions of 333 ± 191 m for the LGM and 494 ± 280 m for the pre-LGM exposure indicate restricted glacier expansion and limited glacial cooling.
Letter report: Population estimates by age, sex and race for 10-county study area
Pittenger, D B
1992-02-01
The Hanford Environmental Does Reconstruction (HEDR) Project was established to estimate radiation doses that people could have received from nuclear operations at the Hanford Site since 1944. To identify groups that may have received doses, population estimates containing age, race, and sex detail for ten counties in Washington and Oregon for the years 1940 to 1980 were prepared by the Demographics Laboratory under a subcontract with the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). A data base of population information was developed from census reports and published and unpublished collections from the Washington State Office of Financial Management and Center for Population Research. Three estimation methods were then explored: the cohort-component model, cohort interpolation, and age-group interpolation. The estimates generated through cohort and age-group interpolation are considered adequate for initial use in the HEDR Project. Results are presented in two forms: (1) county populations by sex and single year of age and (2) county populations by sex and race for age groupings. These results are made available to the HEDR Project for further refinement into population estimates by county census divisions.
Boger, Heather A.; Mannangatti, Padmanabhan; Samuvel, Devadoss J.; Saylor, Alicia J.; Bender, Tara S.; McGinty, Jacqueline F.; Fortress, Ashley M.; Zaman, Vandana; Huang, Peng; Middaugh, Lawrence D.; Randall, Patrick K.; Jayanthi, Lankupalle D.; Rohrer, Baerbel; Helke, Kristi L.; Granholm, Ann-Charlotte; Ramamoorthy, Sammanda
2010-01-01
Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is critical in synaptic plasticity and in the survival and function of midbrain dopamine neurons. In the present study, we assessed the effects of a partial genetic deletion of BDNF on motor function and dopamine (DA) neurotransmitter measures by comparing (Bdnf+/−) with wildtype mice (WT) at different ages. Bdnf+/ and WT mice had similar body weights until 12 months of age; however, at 21 months, Bdnf+/− mice were significantly heavier than WT mice. Horizontal and vertical motor activity was reduced for Bdnf+/− compared to WT mice; but was not influenced by Age. Performance on an accelerating rotarod declined with age for both genotypes and was exacerbated for Bdnf+/− mice. Body weight did not correlate with any of the three behavioral measures studied. DA neurotransmitter markers indicated no genotypic difference in striatal tyrosine hydroxylase (TH), dopamine transporter (DAT), or vesicular monoamine transporter 2 (VMAT2) immunoreactivity at any age. However, DA transport via DAT (starting at 12 months) and VMAT2 (starting at 3 months) as well as KCl-stimulated DA release were reduced in Bdnf+/− mice and declined with age suggesting an increasingly important role for BDNF in the release and uptake of DA with the aging process. These findings suggest that a BDNF expression deficit becomes more critical to dopaminergic dynamics and related behavioral activities with increasing age. PMID:20860702
Age-Infusion Approach to Derive Injury Risk Curves for Dummies from Human Cadaver Tests
Yoganandan, Narayan; Banerjee, Anjishnu; Pintar, Frank A.
2015-01-01
Injury criteria and risk curves are needed for anthropomorphic test devices (dummies) to assess injuries for improving human safety. The present state of knowledge is based on using injury outcomes and biomechanical metrics from post-mortem human subject (PMHS) and mechanical records from dummy tests. Data from these models are combined to develop dummy injury assessment risk curves (IARCs)/dummy injury assessment risk values (IARVs). This simple substitution approach involves duplicating dummy metrics for PMHS tested under similar conditions and pairing with PMHS injury outcomes. It does not directly account for the age of each specimen tested in the PMHS group. Current substitution methods for injury risk assessments use age as a covariate and dummy metrics (e.g., accelerations) are not modified so that age can be directly included in the model. The age-infusion methodology presented in this perspective article accommodates for an annual rate factor that modifies the dummy injury risk assessment responses to account for the age of the PMHS that the injury data were based on. The annual rate factor is determined using human injury risk curves. The dummy metrics are modulated based on individual PMHS age and rate factor, thus “infusing” age into the dummy data. Using PMHS injuries and accelerations from side-impact experiments, matched-pair dummy tests, and logistic regression techniques, the methodology demonstrates the process of age-infusion to derive the IARCs and IARVs. PMID:26697422
Brain-derived neurotrophic factor is associated with age-related decline in hippocampal volume.
Erickson, Kirk I; Prakash, Ruchika Shaurya; Voss, Michelle W; Chaddock, Laura; Heo, Susie; McLaren, Molly; Pence, Brandt D; Martin, Stephen A; Vieira, Victoria J; Woods, Jeffrey A; McAuley, Edward; Kramer, Arthur F
2010-04-14
Hippocampal volume shrinks in late adulthood, but the neuromolecular factors that trigger hippocampal decay in aging humans remains a matter of speculation. In rodents, brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) promotes the growth and proliferation of cells in the hippocampus and is important in long-term potentiation and memory formation. In humans, circulating levels of BDNF decline with advancing age, and a genetic polymorphism for BDNF has been related to gray matter volume loss in old age. In this study, we tested whether age-related reductions in serum levels of BDNF would be related to shrinkage of the hippocampus and memory deficits in older adults. Hippocampal volume was acquired by automated segmentation of magnetic resonance images in 142 older adults without dementia. The caudate nucleus was also segmented and examined in relation to levels of serum BDNF. Spatial memory was tested using a paradigm in which memory load was parametrically increased. We found that increasing age was associated with smaller hippocampal volumes, reduced levels of serum BDNF, and poorer memory performance. Lower levels of BDNF were associated with smaller hippocampi and poorer memory, even when controlling for the variation related to age. In an exploratory mediation analysis, hippocampal volume mediated the age-related decline in spatial memory and BDNF mediated the age-related decline in hippocampal volume. Caudate nucleus volume was unrelated to BDNF levels or spatial memory performance. Our results identify serum BDNF as a significant factor related to hippocampal shrinkage and memory decline in late adulthood. PMID:20392958
Hansen, Michael J.; Staggs, Michael D.; Hoff, Michael H.
1991-01-01
Past population estimates of adult walleyes Stizostedion vitreum can be used to set harvest quotas, provided that temporal variability in abundance of adult walleyes is accounted for. We used a long-term data set from Escanaba Lake, Wisconsin, to evaluate the accuracy of past population estimates for setting current-year quotas for adult walleyes. The results from Escanaba Lake were corroborated by comparison with other lakes where adult walleye abundance was estimated in more than 1 year. The accuracy of estimates of adult walleye abundance declined over time from the year the estimate was obtained to the year it was used to set a harvest quota. We derived safety factors for application to past estimates of population size; these factors limit the occurrence of an exploitation rate exceeding the maximum sustainable rate (35%) to approximately 1 in 40. These safety factors declined from 35% for 1-year-old estimates to less than 20% for 10-year-old estimates.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lipton, Alan E.; Liang, Pan; Jiménez, Carlos; Moncet, Jean-Luc; Aires, Filipe; Prigent, Catherine; Lynch, Richard; Galantowicz, John F.; d'Entremont, Robert P.; Uymin, Gennady
2015-03-01
Monthly-average estimates of latent heat flux have been derived from a combination of satellite-derived microwave emissivities, day-night differences in land surface temperature (from microwave AMSR-E), downward solar and infrared fluxes from ISCCP cloud analysis, and MODIS visible and near-infrared surface reflectances. The estimates, produced with a neural network, were compared with data from the Noah land surface model, as produced for GLDAS-2, and with two alternative estimates derived from different datasets and methods. Areas with extensive, persistent, substantial discrepancies between the satellite and land surface model fluxes have been analyzed with the aid of data from flux towers. The sources of discrepancies were found to include problems with the model surface roughness length and turbulent exchange coefficients for midlatitude cropland areas in summer, inaccuracies in the precipitation data that were used as forcing for the land surface model, and model underestimation of transpiration in some forests during dry periods. At the tower sites analyzed, agreement with tower data was generally closer for our satellite-derived fluxes than for the land surface model fluxes, in terms of monthly averages.
Yamasaki, Taiga; Idehara, Katsutoshi; Xin, Xin
2016-07-01
We propose a new method to estimate muscle activity in a straightforward manner with high accuracy and relatively small computational costs by using the external input of the joint angle and its first to fourth derivatives with respect to time. The method solves the inverse dynamics problem of the skeletal system, the forward dynamics problem of the muscular system, and the load-sharing problem of muscles as a static optimization of neural excitation signals. The external input including the higher-order derivatives is required for a calculation of constraints imposed on the load-sharing problem. The feasibility of the method is demonstrated by the simulation of a simple musculoskeletal model with a single joint. Moreover, the influences of the muscular dynamics, and the higher-order derivatives on the estimation of the muscle activity are demonstrated, showing the results when the time constants of the activation dynamics are very small, and the third and fourth derivatives of the external input are ignored, respectively. It is concluded that the method can have the potential to improve estimation accuracy of muscle activity of highly dynamic motions. PMID:27211782
Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma
Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D.; Wancata, Lauren M.; Muenz, Daniel G.; Haymart, Megan R.; Wong, Sandra L.
2016-01-01
Objective Overall cancer incidence is decreasing while melanoma cases increase. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients as they survive past diagnosis. It is unknown the effect age and stage has on a melanoma patient’s conditional survival estimate. Methods Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) data was utilized, identifying new diagnosis cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95,041), from 1998–2005, with up to 12 year follow up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression and transformed to estimate conditional five-year survival. Results Localized melanoma patients have an excellent five-year survival at diagnosis and subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70–79 years) to younger patients (<30 years): hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01–4.84) and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93–2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87–1.53). Over time conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease nor is the age gradient. Conclusions Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanoma is initially impacted by older age with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional five-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218
Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma.
Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D; Wancata, Lauren M; Muenz, Daniel G; Haymart, Megan R; Wong, Sandra L
2016-02-01
Overall cancer incidence is decreasing, whereas melanoma cases are increasing. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients the farther they are from time of diagnosis. The effect of age and stage on a melanoma patient's conditional survival estimate is unknown. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were utilized to identify newly diagnosed cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95 041), from 1998 to 2005, with up to 12 years of follow-up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression analysis and transformed to estimated conditional 5-year survival. Localized melanoma patients have an excellent 5-year survival at diagnosis and over subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70-79 years) with younger patients (<30 years): hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01-4.84] and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93-2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87-1.53). Over time, conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease, neither is the age gradient. Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanomas are initially impacted by older age, with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional 5-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision-making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218
Computed tomography evaluation of the iliac crest apophysis: age estimation in living individuals.
Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Inci, Ercan; Erdil, Irem; Hocaoglu, Elif; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan; Kazimoglu, Cemal; Reisoglu, Ali; Can, Ismail Ozgur
2016-07-01
Determination of the ossification properties of the iliac apophysis is important not only in the clinical evaluation of patients undergoing orthopedic surgery but also in age estimation studies for forensic purposes. The literature includes both anthropological and radiological (conventional radiography, ultrasonography, and magnetic resonance imaging modalities) investigations of the different staging systems used for these purposes. In this study, we assessed the utility of computed tomography (CT) of the iliac crest apophysis in estimating forensic age. CT scans of the iliac crest apophysis of 380 patients (187 females, 193 males, and 10-29 years of age) were evaluated according to the four-stage system. Further subclassification did not give data properly due to the reference length measurement of the iliac wing with CT. Thus, in our series, stage 2 was first seen in 12 years of age and stage 3 in those 14 years of age in both sexes and on both sides of the pelvis. Stage 4 was first seen in 17 years of both sexes but only on the right side; on the left side, it appeared in females 18 years of age and in males 17 years of age. Present data was found consistent with previous pelvic radiographic findings. First seen ages for stage 2 and 3 are 12 and 14 years respectively which presented valuable information for legally important age thresholds. However, disadvantages of CT, including high-dose radiation exposure to gonads, the difficulty of evaluating the iliac crest, and the age boundary of 17 years, could make this method infeasible, as compared with hand wrist and pelvic radiographic methods. CT of the iliac crest has probably a greater utility where preexisting CT scans of the pelvic region are available, and it may be considered as a supportive method for age-estimation purposes. PMID:26914804
Estimation of Heterogeneity in Diagnostic Parameters of Age-related Diseases.
Blokh, David; Stambler, Ilia
2014-08-01
The heterogeneity of parameters is a ubiquitous biological phenomenon, with critical implications for biological systems functioning in normal and diseased states. We developed a method to estimate the level of objects set heterogeneity with reference to particular parameters and applied it to type II diabetes and heart disease, as examples of age-related systemic dysfunctions. The Friedman test was used to establish the existence of heterogeneity. The Newman-Keuls multiple comparison method was used to determine clusters. The normalized Shannon entropy was used to provide the quantitative evaluation of heterogeneity. There was obtained an estimate for the heterogeneity of the diagnostic parameters in healthy subjects, as well as in heart disease and type II diabetes patients, which was strongly related to their age. With aging, as with the diseases, the level of heterogeneity (entropy) was reduced, indicating a formal analogy between these phenomena. The similarity of the patterns in aging and disease suggested a kind of "early aging" of the diseased subjects, or alternatively a "disease-like" aging process, with reference to these particular parameters. The proposed method and its validation on the chronic age-related disease samples may support a way toward a formal mathematical relation between aging and chronic diseases and a formal definition of aging and disease, as determined by particular heterogeneity (entropy) changes. PMID:25110613
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matsumoto, Takuya; Sturchio, Neil C.; Chang, Hung K.; Gastmans, Didier; Araguas-Araguas, Luis J.; Jiang, Wei; Lu, Zheng-Tian; Mueller, Peter; Yokochi, Reika; Purtschert, Roland; Zongyu, Chen; Shuiming, Hu; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.
2016-04-01
Estimation of groundwater age through the combined use of isotope methods and groundwater flow modelling is the common approach used for developing the required level of knowledge in the case of groundwater pumped from deep aquifers. For more than 50 years radiocarbon and tritium have been the common tools used in isotope hydrology studies to provide first estimates of groundwater age and dynamics. The half-life of carbon-14 (5730 years) and the complex geochemistry of carbon species in most environments have limited the proper characterization of groundwater flow patterns in large sedimentary basins and deep aquifers to ages more recent than about 40 000 years. Over the last years, a number of long-live radionuclides and other isotopes have been tested as more reliable age indicators by specialised laboratories. Among these methods, chlorine-36 (half-life of 300 000 yr) has been used with mixed results, mainly due to problems derived from in-situ production of this radionuclide. Uranium isotopes have also been used in a few instances, but never became a routine tool. Accumulation of helium-4 in deep groundwaters has also been proposed and used in a few instance, but one major obstacle in the 4He dating method is a difficulty in assessing a rate constant of 4He input into aquifers (namely, the entering basal 4He flux). In this context, recent breakthrough developments in analytical methods allow the precise determination of dissolved noble gases in groundwater as well as trace-level noble gas radionuclides present in very old groundwaters. Atom trap trace analysis, or ATTA, has dramatically improved over the last years the processing of very small amount of noble gases, providing now real possibilities for routine measurements of extremely low concentration of exotic radionuclides dissolved in groundwater, such as krypton-81 (half-life 229 000 years). Atom trap trace analysis involves the selective capture of individual atoms of a given isotope using six laser
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
King, J. R.; McPhie, R. P.
2015-05-01
The spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) is a chimaeroid ranging from southeast Alaska to Baja California and found at depths of up to 1029 m. Despite being widespread and ubiquitous, few biological parameter estimates exist for spotted ratfish due to a lack of suitable ageing structures to estimate age and growth. We present preliminary results of age, growth and maturity estimates based on a new method in which tritor ridges are counted on the vomerine tooth plate. We also provide a method for estimating the number of worn tritor ridges based on tooth plate diameter measurements for the spotted ratfish. The tritor ridges are distinct bumps that are easy to identify and precision estimates between readers suggests that this method is transferable. Tritor ridges are a potential structure for estimating age in H. colliei and we provide recommendations for future research to improve the method. We sampled 269 spotted ratfish captured in trawl surveys off the coast British Columbia ranging in size from 74 to 495 mm in precaudal length (PCL). The estimated ages ranged from 2 to 16 years for males and from 2 to 21 years for females. The von Bertalanffy, von Bertalanffy with known size at birth, Gompertz and logistic growth models were fitted to the data. Based on Akaike information criterion corrected for sample size and number of parameters estimated, the logistic growth curve was selected as most suitable. The logistic growth model yielded the following parameter estimates: Linf=407.22 mm (PCL), k=0.23 year-1, t0=-7.06 years for males; L∞=494.52 mm (PCL), k=0.26 year-1, t0=-8.35 years for females. Estimated ages at 50% maturity were 12 and 14 years for males and females, respectively. Correspondingly, the size at 50% maturity estimates was smaller for males (302 mm, PCL) than females (393 mm, PCL). Both estimates are larger than those made for spotted ratfish off of California indicating regional differences in life history traits for this species. Our preliminary
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kleidon, Axel; Renner, Maik; Porada, Philipp
2015-04-01
The land surface energy and water balances are tightly coupled by the partitioning of absorbed solar radiation into terrestrial radiation and the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat, as well as the partitioning of precipitation into evaporation and runoff. Evaporation forms the critical link between these two balances. Its rate is strongly affected by turbulent exchange as it provides the means to efficiently exchange moisture between the heated, moist surface and the cooled, dry atmosphere. Here, we use the constraint that this mass exchange operates at the thermodynamic limit of maximum power to derive analytical expressions for the partitioning of the surface energy and water balances on land. We use satellite-derived forcing of absorbed solar radiation, surface temperature and precipitation to derive simple spatial estimates for the annual mean fluxes of sensible and latent heat and evaluate these estimates with the ERA-Interim reanalysis data set and observations of the discharge of large river basins. Given the extremely simple approach, we find that our estimates explain the climatic mean variations in net radiation, evaporation, and river discharge reasonably well. We conclude that our analytical, minimum approach provides adequate first order estimates of the surface energy and water balance on land and that the thermodynamic limit of maximum power provides a useful closure assumption to constrain the energy partitioning at the land surface.
The Use of Neural Networks in Identifying Error Sources in Satellite-Derived Tropical SST Estimates
Lee, Yung-Hsiang; Ho, Chung-Ru; Su, Feng-Chun; Kuo, Nan-Jung; Cheng, Yu-Hsin
2011-01-01
An neural network model of data mining is used to identify error sources in satellite-derived tropical sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from thermal infrared sensors onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES). By using the Back Propagation Network (BPN) algorithm, it is found that air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed variation are the major factors causing the errors of GOES SST products in the tropical Pacific. The accuracy of SST estimates is also improved by the model. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the daily SST estimate is reduced from 0.58 K to 0.38 K and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 1.03%. For the hourly mean SST estimate, its RMSE is also reduced from 0.66 K to 0.44 K and the MAPE is 1.3%. PMID:22164030
The use of neural networks in identifying error sources in satellite-derived tropical SST estimates.
Lee, Yung-Hsiang; Ho, Chung-Ru; Su, Feng-Chun; Kuo, Nan-Jung; Cheng, Yu-Hsin
2011-01-01
An neural network model of data mining is used to identify error sources in satellite-derived tropical sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from thermal infrared sensors onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES). By using the Back Propagation Network (BPN) algorithm, it is found that air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed variation are the major factors causing the errors of GOES SST products in the tropical Pacific. The accuracy of SST estimates is also improved by the model. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the daily SST estimate is reduced from 0.58 K to 0.38 K and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 1.03%. For the hourly mean SST estimate, its RMSE is also reduced from 0.66 K to 0.44 K and the MAPE is 1.3%. PMID:22164030
Error Estimates Derived from the Data for Least-Squares Spline Fitting
Jerome Blair
2007-06-25
The use of least-squares fitting by cubic splines for the purpose of noise reduction in measured data is studied. Splines with variable mesh size are considered. The error, the difference between the input signal and its estimate, is divided into two sources: the R-error, which depends only on the noise and increases with decreasing mesh size, and the Ferror, which depends only on the signal and decreases with decreasing mesh size. The estimation of both errors as a function of time is demonstrated. The R-error estimation requires knowledge of the statistics of the noise and uses well-known methods. The primary contribution of the paper is a method for estimating the F-error that requires no prior knowledge of the signal except that it has four derivatives. It is calculated from the difference between two different spline fits to the data and is illustrated with Monte Carlo simulations and with an example.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Minniti, J. H.; Ahumada, A. V.; Clariá, J. J.; Benítez-Llambay, A.
2014-05-01
Aims: To increase the number of studied star clusters (SCs) of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), we present flux-calibrated integrated spectra in the optical range (λ = 3700-6800 Å) for six poorly studied LMC SCs of IVA type. This type corresponds to the age range between 200 and 400 Myr. We also aim at creating a new template spectrum representative of this age range at the metallicity level of the LMC. Methods: Foreground reddening E(B - V) values and ages are derived by applying the template matching method that consists of comparing the line strengths and continuum distribution of the cluster spectra with those of template cluster spectra with known properties. The equivalent width (EW) of the Balmer lines and the diagnostic diagrams involving the sum of EWs of selected spectral lines were also employed as age indicators. Results: For the first time, we provide estimates of the clusters' reddenings and ages. As expected, all the clusters appear to be of nearly the same age, their mean value being (400 ± 100) Myr, while the resulting mean E(B - V) values range between 0.00 and 0.10 mag. Conclusions: The present cluster sample complements previous ones in an effort to gather a spectral library with several clusters per age bin. By averaging the reddening-corrected integrated spectra, weighted by their signal-to-noise ratios (S/N), a new high S/N template spectrum of 400 Myr has been created. Integrated spectra for each star cluster are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/565/A49
Derivative-free optimization for parameter estimation in computational nuclear physics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wild, Stefan M.; Sarich, Jason; Schunck, Nicolas
2015-03-01
We consider optimization problems that arise when estimating a set of unknown parameters from experimental data, particularly in the context of nuclear density functional theory. We examine the cost of not having derivatives of these functionals with respect to the parameters. We show that the POUNDERS code for local derivative-free optimization obtains consistent solutions on a variety of computationally expensive energy density functional calibration problems. We also provide a primer on the operation of the POUNDERS software in the Toolkit for advanced optimization.
Radiological pitfalls of age estimation in adopted children: a case report.
Gibelli, D; De Angelis, D; Cattaneo, C
2015-04-01
Age estimation has a relevant importance in assessing adopted children, also in cases where the age of the minor seems unquestioned, since pathological conditions may radically alter bodily growth. This may lead to an incorrect age evaluation, with consequent social and psychological problems linked to an inadequate collocation in public school. This study aims at exposing a case report concerning age estimation for a newly adopted child from Cambodia; previous clinical documentation reported information suggesting possible malnutrition, which was verified by the observation of a general disalignment of bone and dental structures. This example shows the importance of a thorough forensic evaluation of adopted children from other countries in order to verify the possible environmental modification of physiological growth even where it seems not to be needed, and represents a caveat for clinical and social personnel dealing with adoption procedures. PMID:25786535
The Influence of Aging on the Regenerative Potential of Human Adipose Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells
Marycz, Krzysztof; Henry, Brandon Michael
2016-01-01
Tissue regeneration using human adipose derived mesenchymal stem cells (hASCs) has significant potential as a novel treatment for many degenerative bone and joint diseases. Previous studies have established that age negatively affects the proliferation status and the osteogenic and chondrogenic differentiation potential of mesenchymal stem cells. The aim of this study was to assess the age-related maintenance of physiological function and differentiation potential of hASCs in vitro. hASCs were isolated from patients of four different age groups: (1) >20 years (n = 7), (2) >50 years (n = 7), (3) >60 years (n = 7), and (4) >70 years (n = 7). The hASCs were characterized according to the number of fibroblasts colony forming unit (CFU-F), proliferation rate, population doubling time (PDT), and quantified parameters of adipogenic, chondrogenic, and osteogenic differentiation. Compared to younger cells, aged hASCs had decreased proliferation rates, decreased chondrogenic and osteogenic potential, and increased senescent features. A shift in favor of adipogenic differentiation with increased age was also observed. As many bone and joint diseases increase in prevalence with age, it is important to consider the negative influence of age on hASCs viability, proliferation status, and multilineage differentiation potential when considering the potential therapeutic applications of hASCs. PMID:26941800
Sikulu, Maggy T.; Majambere, Silas; Khatib, Bakar O.; Ali, Abdullah S.; Hugo, Leon E.; Dowell, Floyd E.
2014-01-01
We report on the accuracy of using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to predict the age of Anopheles mosquitoes reared from wild larvae and a mixed age-wild adult population collected from pit traps after exposure to pyrethroids. The mosquitoes reared from wild larvae were estimated as <7 or ≥7 d old with an overall accuracy of 79%. The age categories of Anopheles mosquitoes that were not exposed to the insecticide papers were predicted with 78% accuracy whereas the age categories of resistant, susceptible and mosquitoes exposed to control papers were predicted with 82%, 78% and 79% accuracy, respectively. The ages of 85% of the wild-collected mixed-age Anopheles were predicted by NIRS as ≤8 d for both susceptible and resistant groups. The age structure of wild-collected mosquitoes was not significantly different for the pyrethroid-susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes (P = 0.210). Based on these findings, NIRS chronological age estimation technique for Anopheles mosquitoes may be independent of insecticide exposure and the environmental conditions to which the mosquitoes are exposed. PMID:24594705
Single Pass LiDAR-derived Estimate of Site Productivity in Western Oregon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McAdam, E.; Hilker, T.; Waring, R. H.; Sousa, C. H. R. D.; Moura, Y. M.
2014-12-01
Accurate estimates of forest growth at different ages are essential to evaluate the effect of a changing climate and to adjust management practices accordingly. Most current approaches are spatially discrete and therefore unable to predict forest growth accurately across landscapes. While airborne LiDAR has been widely used in forestry, it can only estimate growth rates with repeated passes. In contrast, Landsat imagery records disturbances (at 30 m resolution) but is unable to measure changes in growth rates. Historical archives of Landsat imagery provided us a way of knowing when and where even-aged stands of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir) were cut and replanted. Since early growth rates are nearly linear with age, the height of dominant trees recorded in one pass by LiDAR yields a direct measure of growth and likely changes as stands age under recent climatic conditions. Process-based growth models are available to assess possible shifts in the growth rates of stands under a changing climate; the accuracy of such model predictions can be evaluated with additional LiDAR coverage. In this study we use the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth Model (3-PG) to estimate site index at the landscape level to predict site productivity based on the year of stand establishment obtained from Landsat, and one-pass airborne LiDAR measurement of forest height. We are monitoring forest plantations of known ages and with data on their current age we will calculate site index for 60 separate sites across western Oregon. The results of this study will allow us to create updated site index maps for the state of Oregon under varying climate scenarios.
Age estimation based on pelvic ossification using regression models from conventional radiography.
Zhang, Kui; Dong, Xiao-Ai; Fan, Fei; Deng, Zhen-Hua
2016-07-01
To establish regression models for age estimation from the combination of the ossification of iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. One thousand three hundred and seventy-nine conventional pelvic radiographs at the West China Hospital of Sichuan University between January 2010 and June 2012 were evaluated retrospectively. The receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to measure the value of estimation of 18 years of age with the classification scheme for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. Regression analysis was performed, and formulas for calculating approximate chronological age according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity were developed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were above 0.9 (p < 0.001), indicating a good prediction of the grading systems, and the cubic regression model was found to have the highest R-square value (R (2) = 0.744 for female and R (2) = 0.753 for male). The present classification scheme for apophyseal iliac crest ossification and the ischial tuberosity may be used for age estimation. And the present established cubic regression model according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity can be used for age estimation. PMID:27169673
Age estimation of the Deccan Traps from the North American apparent polar wander path
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Stoddard, Paul R.; Jurdy, Donna M.
1988-01-01
It has recently been proposed that flood basalt events, such as the eruption of the Deccan Traps, have been responsible for mass extinctions. To test this hypothesis, accurate estimations of the ages and duration of these events are needed. In the case of the Deccan Traps, however, neither age nor duration of emplacement is well constrianed; measured ages range from 40 to more than 80 Myr, and estimates of duration range from less than 1 to 67 Myr. To make an independent age determination, paleomagnetic and sea-floor-spreading data are used, and the associated errors are estimated. The Deccan paleomagnetic pole is compared with the reference apparent polar wander path of North America by rotating the positions of the paleomagnetic pole for the Deccan Traps to the reference path for a range of assumed ages. Uncertainties in the apparent polar wander path, Deccan paleopole position, and errors resulting from the plate reconstruction are estimated. It is suggested that 83-70 Myr is the most likely time of extrusion of these volcanic rocks.
Algorithmically-derived variables and their use in toxicity estimation: A review
Niemi, G.; Basak, S.
1994-12-31
The use of algorithmically-derived variables are those calculated directly and precisely from mathematical representations of a chemical such as those based on graph-theory. Many studies have shown a high correspondence between these variables and physicochemical measurements of a diverse set of compounds. Moreover, these variables have proven highly useful in the estimation of many parameters related with toxicity including n-octanol water partition coefficient, toxicity bioconcentration factors, and mode of toxic action. This paper is a review of how these variables have been used for the estimation of these properties. It will also describe the important role that algorithmically-derived variables may play in the future of aquatic toxicology and the development of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR`s).
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Young, Andrew T.
1988-01-01
Atmospheric extinction in wideband photometry is examined both analytically and through numerical simulations. If the derivatives that appear in the Stromgren-King theory are estimated carefully, it appears that wideband measurements can be transformed to outside the atmosphere with errors no greater than a millimagnitude. A numerical analysis approach is used to estimate derivatives of both the stellar and atmospheric extinction spectra, avoiding previous assumptions that the extinction follows a power law. However, it is essential to satify the requirements of the sampling theorem to keep aliasing errors small. Typically, this means that band separations cannot exceed half of the full width at half-peak response. Further work is needed to examine higher order effects, which may well be significant.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nikonovas, T.; North, P. R. J.; Doerr, S. H.
2015-03-01
Particulate emissions from wildfires impact human health and have a large but uncertain effect on climate. Modelling schemes depend on information about emission factors, emitted particle microphysical and optical properties and ageing effects, while satellite retrieval algorithms make use of characteristic aerosol models to improve retrieval. Ground based remote sensing provides detailed aerosol characterisation, but does not contain information on source. Here, a method is presented to estimate plume origin land cover type and age for AERONET aerosol observations, employing trajectory modelling using the HYSPLIT model, and satellite active fire and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) observations from MODIS and AATSR. It is applied to AERONET stations located in or near Northern temperate and boreal forests, for the period 2002-2013. The results from 629 fire attributions indicate significant differences in size distributions and particle optical properties between different land cover types. Smallest fine mode median radius are attributed to plumes from cropland - natural vegetation mosaic (0.143 μm) and grasslands (0.147 μm) fires. Evergreen needleleaf forest emissions show a significantly smaller fine mode median radius (0.164 μm) than plumes from woody savannas (0.184 μm) and mixed forest (0.193 μm) fires. Smoke plumes are predominantly scattering for all of the classes with median single scattering albedo at 440 nm (SSA(440)) values close to 0.95 except the cropland emissions which have a SSA(440) value of 0.9. Overall fine mode volume median radius increase rate is 0.0095 μm per day for the first 4 days of ageing and 0.0084 μm per day for seven days of ageing. Changes in size were consistent with a decrease in Angstrom Exponent and increase in Asymmetry parameter. No significant changes in SSA(λ) with ageing were found. These estimates have implications for
Samuel, Michael D.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Beissel, Thomas; Richards, Bryan J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.
2014-01-01
The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information.
Eakin, T; Shouman, R; Qi, Y; Liu, G; Witten, M
1995-05-01
Studies of the biology of aging (both experimental and evolutionary) frequently involve the estimation of parameters arising in various multi-parameter survival models such as the Gompertz or Weibull distribution. Standard parameter estimation methodologies, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or nonlinear regression (NLR), require knowledge of the actual life spans or their explicit algebraic equivalents in order to provide reliable parameter estimates. Many fundamental biological discussions and conclusions are highly dependent upon accurate estimates of these survival parameters (this has historically been the case in the study of genetic and environmental effects on longevity and the evolutionary biology of aging). In this article, we examine some of the issues arising in the estimation of gerontologic survival model parameters. We not only address issues of accuracy when the original life-span data are unknown, we consider the accuracy of the estimates even when the exact life spans are known. We examine these issues as applied to known experimental data on diet restriction and we fit the frequently used, two-parameter Gompertzian survival distribution to these experimental data. Consequences of methodological misuse are demonstrated and subsequently related to the values of the final parameter estimates and their associated errors. These results generalize to other multiparametric distributions such as the Weibull, Makeham, and logistic survival distributions. PMID:7743396
The study on telomere length for age estimation in a Thai population.
Srettabunjong, Supawon; Satitsri, Saravut; Thongnoppakhun, Wanna; Tirawanchai, Nednapis
2014-06-01
Age is one of the key parameters in establishing a physical characteristic profile of an individual. For biological evidence left in crime scenes such as blood, saliva, hair, etc, the evidence owner's age can be determined only by DNA extracted from these materials. Previous researches have found that there are certain DNA regions with specialized characteristic and function called telomere being able to predict age. The present study was to determine the correlation between telomere length and age as well as the effect of sex on the correlation and to create linear regression equation for age estimation in Thai population for forensic purposes. Blood samples obtained from unrelated healthy Thai fresh cadavers without anatomical organ abnormalities were used in this study. All cadaver subjects underwent the postmortem examination in jurisdiction of the Department of Forensic Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, and Institute of Forensic Medicine, Police General Hospital. Fifty blood samples from both sexes of all ages divided into 6 groups for equal age distribution (0-11, 12-23, 24-35, 36-47, 48-59, and 60 years old and older) were collected for a total of 100 samples. The extracted genomic DNA samples were then subjected to telomere length estimation by terminal restriction fragment (TRF) assay. The results showed that the mean TRF length was inversely correlated with age (r = -0.625), and sex did not have a statistically significant influence on the association between age and mean TRF length (P > 0.05). The obtained linear regression equation was y = 113.538 ± 9.604 - 0.012 × (R = 0.391; P < 0.001). However, the correlation was too low to be used for age estimation with high certainty and a possible reason for this in part would be the postmortem DNA degradation at some level, even using fresh cadaver blood, and other biological factors such as ethnicity and DNA sources. Roughly, those individuals who had a mean TRF length
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ichoku, Charles; Kaufman, Yoram J.
2003-01-01
Biomass burning is the main source of smoke aerosols and certain trace gases in the atmosphere. However, estimates of the rates of biomass consumption and emission of aerosols and trace gases from fires have not attained adequate reliability thus far. Traditional methods for deriving emission rates employ the use of emission factors e(sub x), (in g of species x per kg of biomass burned), which are difficult to measure from satellites. In this era of environmental monitoring from space, fire characterization was not a major consideration in the design of the early satellite-borne remote sensing instruments, such as AVHRR. Therefore, although they are able to provide fire location information, they were not adequately sensitive to variations in fire strength or size, because their thermal bands used for fire detection saturated at the lower end of fire radiative temperature range. As such, hitherto, satellite-based emission estimates employ proxy techniques using satellite derived fire pixel counts (which do not express the fire strength or rate of biomass consumption) or burned areas (which can only be obtained after the fire is over). The MODIS sensor, recently launched into orbit aboard EOS Terra (1999) and Aqua (2002) satellites, have a much higher saturation level and can, not only detect the fire locations 4 times daily, but also measures the at-satellite fire radiative energy (which is a measure of the fire strength) based on its 4 micron channel temperature. Also, MODIS measures the optical thickness of smoke and other aerosols. Preliminary analysis shows appreciable correlation between the MODIS-derived rates of emission of fire radiative energy and smoke over different regions across the globe. These relationships hold great promise for deriving emission coefficients, which can be used for estimating smoke aerosol emissions from MODIS active fire products. This procedure has the potential to provide more accurate emission estimates in near real
Age-at-maturity estimates for Atlantic coast female striped bass
Berlinsky, David L.; Fabrizio, Mary C.; O'Brien, John F.; Specker, Jennifer L.
1995-01-01
This study was undertaken to estimate the percentage of mature female striped bass Morone saxatilis present in each age-class during annual coastal feeding migration. Migratory striped bass (N = 302) were sampled in coastal Rhode Island waters during spring (May-June) and fall (September-November) from 1985 to 1987. Stocks were identified by analysis of morphometric characters and isoelectric focusing of eye-lens proteins. Histological sections of ovarian tissue were used to categorize maturity state. Fish were considered mature if a class of oocytes measuring at least 150 μm and containing cytoplasmic inclusions was found in the ovarian sections. All females whose age at next potential spawning was 7 and older were mature. Our empirical observations indicated that 12% of fish in age-class 4, 34% of fish in age-class 5, and 77% of fish in age-class 6 were mature. The estimate of the proportion of mature fish in age-class 5 differs significantly from that of Merriman (1941), who also examined coastal migrants. No significant differences were found in maturity estimates of fish from stocks of different origin.
Cost-Sensitive Local Binary Feature Learning for Facial Age Estimation.
Lu, Jiwen; Liong, Venice Erin; Zhou, Jie
2015-12-01
In this paper, we propose a cost-sensitive local binary feature learning (CS-LBFL) method for facial age estimation. Unlike the conventional facial age estimation methods that employ hand-crafted descriptors or holistically learned descriptors for feature representation, our CS-LBFL method learns discriminative local features directly from raw pixels for face representation. Motivated by the fact that facial age estimation is a cost-sensitive computer vision problem and local binary features are more robust to illumination and expression variations than holistic features, we learn a series of hashing functions to project raw pixel values extracted from face patches into low-dimensional binary codes, where binary codes with similar chronological ages are projected as close as possible, and those with dissimilar chronological ages are projected as far as possible. Then, we pool and encode these local binary codes within each face image as a real-valued histogram feature for face representation. Moreover, we propose a cost-sensitive local binary multi-feature learning method to jointly learn multiple sets of hashing functions using face patches extracted from different scales to exploit complementary information. Our methods achieve competitive performance on four widely used face aging data sets. PMID:26415174
Problems in estimating age-specific survival rates from recovery data of birds ringed as young
Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; White, Gary C.
1985-01-01
(1) The life table model is frequently employed in the analysis of ringer samples of young in bird populations. The basic model is biologically unrealistic and of little use in making inferences concerning age-specific survival probabilities. (2) This model rests on a number of restrictive assumptions, the failure of which causes serious biases. Several important assumptions are not met with real data and the estimators of age-specific survival are not robust enough to these failures. (3) Five major problems in the use of the life table method are reviewed. Examples are provided to illustrate several of the problems involved in using this method in making inferences about survival rates and its age-specific nature. (4) We conclude that this is an invalid procedure and it should not be used. Furthermore, ringing studies involving only young birds are pointless as regards survival estimation because no valid method exists for estimating age-specific or time-specific survival rates from such data. (5) In our view, inferences about age-specific survival rates are possible only if both young and adult (or young, subadult and adult) age classes are ringed each year for k years (k ≥ 2).
Improving estimates of surface water radiocarbon reservoir ages in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Greenop, Rosanna; Burke, Andrea; Rae, James; Austin, William; Reimer, Paula; Blaauw, Maarten; Crocker, Anya; Chalk, Thomas; Barker, Stephen; Knutz, Paul; Hall, Ian
2016-04-01
Radiocarbon measurements from foraminifera in marine sediment cores are widely used to constrain age models and the timing of paleoceanographic events, as well as past changes in ocean circulation and carbon cycling. However, the use of radiocarbon for both dating and palaeoceanographic applications is limited in sediment cores by a lack of knowledge about the surface ocean radiocarbon reservoir age and how it varies in both space and time. Typically, to convert a planktic radiocarbon age into a calendar age, an assumed constant reservoir age is applied. However, there is mounting evidence to suggest that this assumption of constant reservoir age through time is an oversimplification, particularly for the high latitude oceans during the cold climates of the last glacial and deglacial periods. Here we present new high-resolution radiocarbon records together with tephra tie points and 230-thorium (230Th) constrained sedimentation rates to improve estimates of radiocarbon reservoir age in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. In addition we will explore the impact of the new reservoir ages for both the age models of the cores studied, as well as the palaeoceanographic implications of these reservoir age changes during intervals of rapid climate change over the past 40,000 years.
A method for estimating gestational age of fetal remains based on long bone lengths.
Carneiro, Cristiana; Curate, Francisco; Cunha, Eugénia
2016-09-01
The estimation of gestational age (GA) in fetal human remains is important in forensic settings, particularly to assess fetal viability, in addition to often being the only biological profile parameter that can be assessed with some accuracy for non-adults. The length of long bone diaphysis is one of the most frequently used methods for fetal age estimation. The main objective of this study was to present a simple and objective method for estimating GA based on the measurements of the diaphysis of the femur, tibia, fibula, humerus, ulna, and radius. Conventional least squares regression equations (classical and inverse calibration approaches) and quick reference tables were generated. A supplementary objective was to compare the performance of the new formulae against previously published models. The sample comprised 257 fetuses (136 females and 121 males) with known GA (between 12 and 40 weeks) and was selected based on clinical and pathological information. All measurements were performed on radiographic images acquired in anonymous clinical autopsy records from spontaneous and therapeutic abortions in two Portuguese hospitals. The proposed technique is straightforward and reproducible. The models for the GA estimation are exceedingly accurate and unbiased. Comparisons between inverse and classical calibration show that both perform exceptionally well, with high accuracy and low bias. Also, the newly developed equations generally outperform earlier methods of GA estimation in forensic contexts. Quick reference tables for each long bone are now available. The obtained models for the estimation of gestational age are of great applicability in forensic contexts. PMID:27251047
Estimating Derived Response Levels at the Savannah River Site for Use with Emergency Response Models
Simpkins, A.A.
2002-12-06
Emergency response computer models at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are coupled with real-time meteorological data to estimate dose to individuals downwind of accidental radioactive releases. Currently, these models estimate doses for inhalation and shine pathways, but do not consider dose due to ingestion of contaminated food products. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has developed derived intervention levels (DIL) which refer to the radionuclide-specific concentration in food present throughout the relevant period of time, with no intervention, that could lead to an individual receiving a radiation dose equal to the protective action guide. In the event of an emergency, concentrations in various food types are compared with these levels to make interdictions decisions. Prior to monitoring results being available, concentrations in the environmental media (i.e. soil), called derived response levels (DRLs), can be estimated from the DILs and directly compared with computer output to provide preliminary guidance as to whether intervention is necessary. Site-specific derived response levels (DRLs) are developed for ingestion pathways pertinent to SRS: milk, meat, fish, grain, produce, and beverage. This provides decision-makers with an additional tool for use immediately following an accident prior to the acquisition of food monitoring data.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Batterson, James G.; Omara, Thomas M.
1989-01-01
The results of applying a modified stepwise regression algorithm and a maximum likelihood algorithm to flight data from a twin-engine commuter-class icing research aircraft are presented. The results are in the form of body-axis stability and control derivatives related to the short-period, longitudinal motion of the aircraft. Data were analyzed for the baseline (uniced) and for the airplane with an artificial glaze ice shape attached to the leading edge of the horizontal tail. The results are discussed as to the accuracy of the derivative estimates and the difference between the derivative values found for the baseline and the iced airplane. Additional comparisons were made between the maximum likelihood results and the modified stepwise regression results with causes for any discrepancies postulated.
Wild-derived mouse stocks: an underappreciated tool for aging research
2008-01-01
Virtually all biomedical research makes use of a relatively small pool of laboratory-adapted, inbred, isogenic stocks of mice. Although the advantages of these models are many, there are a number of disadvantages as well. When studying a multifaceted process such as aging, the problems associated with using laboratory stocks are greatly inflated. On the other hand, wild-derived mouse stocks, loosely defined here as either wild-caught individuals or the recent progeny of wild-caught individuals, have much to offer to biogerontology research. Hence, the aims of this review are threefold: (1) to (re)acquaint readers with the pros and cons of using a typical inbred laboratory mouse model for aging research; (2) to reintroduce the notion of using wild-derived mouse stocks in aging research as championed by Austad, Miller and others for more than a decade, and (3) to provide an overview of recent advances in biogerontology using wild-derived mouse stocks. PMID:19424863
Age-related decrease in cerebrovascular-derived neuroprotective proteins: effect of acetaminophen
Tripathy, Debjani; Sanchez, Alma; Yin, Xiangling; Martinez, Joseph; Grammas, Paula
2012-01-01
As the population ages, the need for effective methods to maintain brain function in older adults is increasingly pressing. Vascular disease and neurodegenerative disorders commonly co-occur in older persons. Cerebrovascular products contribute to the neuronal milieu and have important consequences for neuronal viability. In this regard vascular derived neuroprotective proteins, such as vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), pigment epithelium-derived factor (PEDF), and pituitary adenylate cyclase activating peptide (PACAP) are important for maintaining neuronal viability, especially in the face of injury and disease. The objective of this study is to measure and compare levels of VEGF, PEDF and PACAP released from isolated brain microvessels of Fischer 344 rats at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months of age. Addition of acetaminophen to isolated brain microvessels is employed to determine whether this drug affects vascular expression of these neuroprotective proteins. Experiments on cultured brain endothelial cells are performed to explore the mechanisms/mediators that regulate the effect of acetaminophen on endothelial cells. The data indicate cerebrovascular expression of VEGF, PEDF and PACAP significantly decreases with age. The age-associated decrease in VEGF and PEDF is ameliorated by addition of acetaminophen to isolated brain microvessels. Also, release of VEGF, PEDF, and PACAP from cultured brain endothelial cells decreases with exposure to the oxidant stressor menadione. Acetaminophen treatment upregulates VEGF, PEDF and PACAP in brain endothelial cells exposed to oxidative stress. The effect of acetaminophen on cultured endothelial cells is in part inhibited by the selective thrombin inhibitor hirudin. The results of this study suggest that acetaminophen may be a useful agent for preserving cerebrovascular function. If a low dose of acetaminophen can counteract the decrease in vascular-derived neurotrophic factors evoked by age and oxidative stress, this drug
Adipose-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells Restore Impaired Mucosal Immune Responses in Aged Mice
Aso, Kazuyoshi; Tsuruhara, Akitoshi; Takagaki, Kentaro; Oki, Katsuyuki; Ota, Megumi; Nose, Yasuhiro; Tanemura, Hideki; Urushihata, Naoki; Sasanuma, Jinichi; Sano, Masayuki; Hirano, Atsuyuki; Aso, Rio; McGhee, Jerry R.; Fujihashi, Kohtaro
2016-01-01
It has been shown that adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells (AMSCs) can differentiate into adipocytes, chondrocytes and osteoblasts. Several clinical trials have shown the ability of AMSCs to regenerate these differentiated cell types. Age-associated dysregulation of the gastrointestinal (GI) immune system has been well documented. Our previous studies showed that impaired mucosal immunity in the GI tract occurs earlier during agingthan is seen in the systemic compartment. In this study, we examined the potential of AMSCs to restore the GI mucosal immune system in aged mice. Aged (>18 mo old) mice were adoptively transferred with AMSCs. Two weeks later, mice were orally immunized with ovalbumin (OVA) plus cholera toxin (CT) three times at weekly intervals. Seven days after the final immunization, when fecal extract samples and plasma were subjected to OVA- and CT-B-specific ELISA, elevated levels of mucosal secretory IgA (SIgA) and plasma IgG antibody (Ab) responses were noted in aged mouse recipients. Similar results were also seen aged mice which received AMSCs at one year of age. When cytokine production was examined, OVA-stimulated Peyer’s patch CD4+ T cells produced increased levels of IL-4. Further, CD4+ T cells from the lamina propria revealed elevated levels of IL-4 and IFN-γ production. In contrast, aged mice without AMSC transfer showed essentially no OVA- or CT-B-specific mucosal SIgA or plasma IgG Ab or cytokine responses. Of importance, fecal extracts from AMSC transferred aged mice showed neutralization activity to CT intoxication. These results suggest that AMSCs can restore impaired mucosal immunity in the GI tract of aged mice. PMID:26840058
Adipose-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells Restore Impaired Mucosal Immune Responses in Aged Mice.
Aso, Kazuyoshi; Tsuruhara, Akitoshi; Takagaki, Kentaro; Oki, Katsuyuki; Ota, Megumi; Nose, Yasuhiro; Tanemura, Hideki; Urushihata, Naoki; Sasanuma, Jinichi; Sano, Masayuki; Hirano, Atsuyuki; Aso, Rio; McGhee, Jerry R; Fujihashi, Kohtaro
2016-01-01
It has been shown that adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells (AMSCs) can differentiate into adipocytes, chondrocytes and osteoblasts. Several clinical trials have shown the ability of AMSCs to regenerate these differentiated cell types. Age-associated dysregulation of the gastrointestinal (GI) immune system has been well documented. Our previous studies showed that impaired mucosal immunity in the GI tract occurs earlier during agingthan is seen in the systemic compartment. In this study, we examined the potential of AMSCs to restore the GI mucosal immune system in aged mice. Aged (>18 mo old) mice were adoptively transferred with AMSCs. Two weeks later, mice were orally immunized with ovalbumin (OVA) plus cholera toxin (CT) three times at weekly intervals. Seven days after the final immunization, when fecal extract samples and plasma were subjected to OVA- and CT-B-specific ELISA, elevated levels of mucosal secretory IgA (SIgA) and plasma IgG antibody (Ab) responses were noted in aged mouse recipients. Similar results were also seen aged mice which received AMSCs at one year of age. When cytokine production was examined, OVA-stimulated Peyer's patch CD4+ T cells produced increased levels of IL-4. Further, CD4+ T cells from the lamina propria revealed elevated levels of IL-4 and IFN-γ production. In contrast, aged mice without AMSC transfer showed essentially no OVA- or CT-B-specific mucosal SIgA or plasma IgG Ab or cytokine responses. Of importance, fecal extracts from AMSC transferred aged mice showed neutralization activity to CT intoxication. These results suggest that AMSCs can restore impaired mucosal immunity in the GI tract of aged mice. PMID:26840058
Cameriere, R; Pacifici, A; Pacifici, L; Polimeni, A; Federici, F; Cingolani, M; Ferrante, L
2016-01-01
Age estimation from teeth by radiological analysis, in both children and adolescents, has wide applications in several scientific and forensic fields. In 2006, Cameriere et al. proposed a regression method to estimate chronological age in children, according to measurements of open apices of permanent teeth. Although several regression models are used to analyze the relationship between age and dental development, one serious limitation is the unavoidable bias in age estimation when regression models are used. The aim of this paper is to develop a full Bayesian calibration method for age estimation in children according to the sum of open apices, S, of the seven left permanent mandibular teeth. This cross-sectional study included 2630 orthopantomographs (OPGs) from healthy living Italian subjects, aged between 4 and 17 years and with no obvious developmental abnormalities. All radiographs were in digital format and were processed by the ImageJ computer-aided drawing program. The distance between the inner side of the open apex was measured for each tooth. Dental maturity was then evaluated according to the sum of normalized open apices (S). Intra- and inter-observer agreement was satisfactory, according to an intra-class correlation coefficient of S on 50 randomly selected OPGs. Mean absolute errors were 0.72 years (standard deviation 0.60) and 0.73 years (standard deviation 0.61) in boys and girls, respectively. The mean interquartile range (MIQR) of the calibrating distribution was 1.37 years (standard deviation 0.46) and 1.51 years (standard deviation 0.52) in boys and girls, respectively. Estimate bias was βERR=-0.005 and 0.003 for boys and girls, corresponding to a bias of a few days for all individuals in the sample. Neither of the βERR values was significantly different from 0 (p>0.682). In conclusion, the Bayesian calibration method overcomes problems of bias in age estimation when regression models are used, and appears to be suitable for assessing both
Estimating cropland NPP using national crop inventory and MODIS derived crop specific parameters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bandaru, V.; West, T. O.; Ricciuto, D. M.
2011-12-01
Estimates of cropland net primary production (NPP) are needed as input for estimates of carbon flux and carbon stock changes. Cropland NPP is currently estimated using terrestrial ecosystem models, satellite remote sensing, or inventory data. All three of these methods have benefits and problems. Terrestrial ecosystem models are often better suited for prognostic estimates rather than diagnostic estimates. Satellite-based NPP estimates often underestimate productivity on intensely managed croplands and are also limited to a few broad crop categories. Inventory-based estimates are consistent with nationally collected data on crop yields, but they lack sub-county spatial resolution. Integrating these methods will allow for spatial resolution consistent with current land cover and land use, while also maintaining total biomass quantities recorded in national inventory data. The main objective of this study was to improve cropland NPP estimates by using a modification of the CASA NPP model with individual crop biophysical parameters partly derived from inventory data and MODIS 8day 250m EVI product. The study was conducted for corn and soybean crops in Iowa and Illinois for years 2006 and 2007. We used EVI as a linear function for fPAR, and used crop land cover data (56m spatial resolution) to extract individual crop EVI pixels. First, we separated mixed pixels of both corn and soybean that occur when MODIS 250m pixel contains more than one crop. Second, we substituted mixed EVI pixels with nearest pure pixel values of the same crop within 1km radius. To get more accurate photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), we applied the Mountain Climate Simulator (MTCLIM) algorithm with the use of temperature and precipitation data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) to generate shortwave radiation data. Finally, county specific light use efficiency (LUE) values of each crop for years 2006 to 2007 were determined by application of mean county inventory
Accuracy of two dental and one skeletal age estimation methods in 6-16 year old Gujarati children
Patel, Purv S.; Chaudhary, Anjani Ramachandra; Dudhia, Bhavin B.; Bhatia, Parul V.; Soni, Naresh C.; Jani, Yesha V.
2015-01-01
Introduction: Age estimation is of immense importance not only for personal identification but also for treatment planning in medicine and dentistry. Chronologic age conveys only a rough approximation of the maturational status of a person, hence dental and skeletal ages have been explored as maturity indicators since decades. The tooth maturation provides a valuable indicator of dental age and serves as a better index of the maturation of a child as compared to other maturity indicators. Aims and Objectives: To test the applicability of Demirjian's and Willem's dental age assessment methods as well as Greulich and Pyle skeletal age assessment method in children residing in Gandhinagar district. Materials and Methods: The study consisted of randomly selected 180 subjects (90 males and 90 females) ranging from 6 to 16 years age and residing in Gandhinagar district. Dental age estimation was performed from radiovisuograph (RVG) images of mandibular teeth of left quadrant by both Demirjian's and Willem's methods. Skeletal age estimation was done from right hand wrist radiograph by Greulich and Pyle method. The differences between the chronological age and the estimated dental and skeletal ages were statistically tested using paired ‘t’ test. The correlation between chronological age, dental and skeletal age estimation methods was confirmed statistically by Pearson's correlation. The reproducibility of the estimations was statistically tested using the Pearson's Chi-square test. Results: Amongst the age estimation methods used in this study, the Willem's dental age estimation method proved to be the most accurate and consistent. Conclusion: Although various age estimation methods do exist, the results are varied in different populations due to ethnic differences. However, till new tables are formulated, the Willem's method (Modified Demirjian method) can be accurately applied to estimate chronological age for the population residing in Gandhinagar district. PMID
Bar-Am, Orit; Amit, Tamar; Youdim, Moussa B; Weinreb, Orly
2016-02-01
The mitochondrial theory of ageing proposes that accumulation of damage to mitochondrial function and DNA mutation lead to ageing of humans and animals. It has been suggested that mitochondria play dynamic roles in regulating synaptogenesis and morphological/functional responses of synaptic activity, and thus, deteriorating of mitochondrial function (e.g., deficits of the mitochondrial respiratory enzymes, reduced calcium influx, increased accumulation of mitochondrial DNA defects/apoptotic proteins and impairment of mitochondrial membrane potential) can lead to severe neuronal energy deficit, and in the long run, to modifications in neuronal synapses and neurodegeneration in the ageing brain. Hence, considering the mechanisms by which mitochondrial impairment can lead to neuronal death, the development of neuroprotective molecules that target various mitochondrial pathogenic processes can be effective in the treatment of ageing and age-related neurodegenerative diseases. This review addresses several aspects of the neuroprotective effects of propargylamine derivatives (e.g., the monoamine oxidase-B inhibitors, selegiline and rasagiline and the multifunctional drugs, ladostigil, M30 and VAR10303) in ageing with a special focus on mitochondrial molecular protective mechanisms. PMID:25859841