DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death.

PubMed

Chen, Brian H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S; Just, Allan C; Demerath, Ellen W; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Murabito, Joanne M; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C; Price, Timothy R; Singleton, Andrew B; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R; McRae, Allan F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E; Lu, Ake T; Tsao, Philip S; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E; Carty, Cara L; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Reiner, Alexander P; Spector, Tim D; Feinberg, Andrew P; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J; Pankow, James S; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

2016-09-28

Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as "epigenetic age", "DNAm age", have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2x10 -9 ) , independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4x10 -4 ) , and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5x10 -43 ). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality.

A culture-brain link: Negative age stereotypes predict Alzheimer's disease biomarkers.

PubMed

Levy, Becca R; Ferrucci, Luigi; Zonderman, Alan B; Slade, Martin D; Troncoso, Juan; Resnick, Susan M

2016-02-01

Although negative age stereotypes have been found to predict adverse outcomes among older individuals, it was unknown whether the influence of stereotypes extends to brain changes associated with Alzheimer's disease. To consider this possibility, we drew on dementia-free participants, in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, whose age stereotypes were assessed decades before yearly magnetic resonance images and brain autopsies were performed. Those holding more-negative age stereotypes earlier in life had significantly steeper hippocampal-volume loss and significantly greater accumulation of neurofibrillary tangles and amyloid plaques, adjusting for relevant covariates. These findings suggest a new pathway to identifying mechanisms and potential interventions related to the pathology of Alzheimer's disease. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

1/f neural noise and electrophysiological indices of contextual prediction in aging.

PubMed

Dave, S; Brothers, T A; Swaab, T Y

2018-07-15

Prediction of upcoming words during reading has been suggested to enhance the efficiency of discourse processing. Emerging models have postulated that predictive mechanisms require synchronous firing of neural networks, but to date, this relationship has been investigated primarily through oscillatory activity in narrow frequency bands. A recently-developed measure proposed to reflect broadband neural activity - and thereby synchronous neuronal firing - is 1/f neural noise extracted from EEG spectral power. Previous research has indicated that this measure of 1/f neural noise changes across the lifespan, and these neural changes predict age-related behavioral impairments in visual working memory. Using a cross-sectional sample of young and older adults, we examined age-related changes in 1/f neural noise and whether this measure predicted ERP correlates of successful lexical prediction during discourse comprehension. 1/f neural noise across two different language tasks revealed high within-subject correlations, indicating that this measure can provide a reliable index of individualized patterns of neural activation. In addition to age, 1/f noise was a significant predictor of N400 effects of successful lexical prediction; however, noise did not mediate age-related declines in other ERP effects. We discuss broader implications of these findings for theories of predictive processing, as well as potential applications of 1/f noise across research populations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NAPR: a Cloud-Based Framework for Neuroanatomical Age Prediction.

PubMed

Pardoe, Heath R; Kuzniecky, Ruben

2018-01-01

The availability of cloud computing services has enabled the widespread adoption of the "software as a service" (SaaS) approach for software distribution, which utilizes network-based access to applications running on centralized servers. In this paper we apply the SaaS approach to neuroimaging-based age prediction. Our system, named "NAPR" (Neuroanatomical Age Prediction using R), provides access to predictive modeling software running on a persistent cloud-based Amazon Web Services (AWS) compute instance. The NAPR framework allows external users to estimate the age of individual subjects using cortical thickness maps derived from their own locally processed T1-weighted whole brain MRI scans. As a demonstration of the NAPR approach, we have developed two age prediction models that were trained using healthy control data from the ABIDE, CoRR, DLBS and NKI Rockland neuroimaging datasets (total N = 2367, age range 6-89 years). The provided age prediction models were trained using (i) relevance vector machines and (ii) Gaussian processes machine learning methods applied to cortical thickness surfaces obtained using Freesurfer v5.3. We believe that this transparent approach to out-of-sample evaluation and comparison of neuroimaging age prediction models will facilitate the development of improved age prediction models and allow for robust evaluation of the clinical utility of these methods.

Predicting age groups of Twitter users based on language and metadata features.

PubMed

Morgan-Lopez, Antonio A; Kim, Annice E; Chew, Robert F; Ruddle, Paul

2017-01-01

Health organizations are increasingly using social media, such as Twitter, to disseminate health messages to target audiences. Determining the extent to which the target audience (e.g., age groups) was reached is critical to evaluating the impact of social media education campaigns. The main objective of this study was to examine the separate and joint predictive validity of linguistic and metadata features in predicting the age of Twitter users. We created a labeled dataset of Twitter users across different age groups (youth, young adults, adults) by collecting publicly available birthday announcement tweets using the Twitter Search application programming interface. We manually reviewed results and, for each age-labeled handle, collected the 200 most recent publicly available tweets and user handles' metadata. The labeled data were split into training and test datasets. We created separate models to examine the predictive validity of language features only, metadata features only, language and metadata features, and words/phrases from another age-validated dataset. We estimated accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 metrics for each model. An L1-regularized logistic regression model was conducted for each age group, and predicted probabilities between the training and test sets were compared for each age group. Cohen's d effect sizes were calculated to examine the relative importance of significant features. Models containing both Tweet language features and metadata features performed the best (74% precision, 74% recall, 74% F1) while the model containing only Twitter metadata features were least accurate (58% precision, 60% recall, and 57% F1 score). Top predictive features included use of terms such as "school" for youth and "college" for young adults. Overall, it was more challenging to predict older adults accurately. These results suggest that examining linguistic and Twitter metadata features to predict youth and young adult Twitter users may be helpful for

DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian H.; Marioni, Riccardo E.; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J.; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S.; Just, Allan C.; Demerath, Ellen W.; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R.; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P.; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Murabito, Joanne M.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G.; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C.; Price, Timothy R.; Singleton, Andrew B.; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M.; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R.; McRae, Allan F.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E.; Lu, Ake T.; Tsao, Philip S.; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E.; Carty, Cara L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Spector, Tim D.; Feinberg, Andrew P.; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T.; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J.; Pankow, James S.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

2016-01-01

Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as “epigenetic age”, “DNAm age”, have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2×10−9), independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4×10−4), and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5×10−43). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality. PMID:27690265

DNA methylation-based forensic age prediction using artificial neural networks and next generation sequencing.

PubMed

Vidaki, Athina; Ballard, David; Aliferi, Anastasia; Miller, Thomas H; Barron, Leon P; Syndercombe Court, Denise

2017-05-01

The ability to estimate the age of the donor from recovered biological material at a crime scene can be of substantial value in forensic investigations. Aging can be complex and is associated with various molecular modifications in cells that accumulate over a person's lifetime including epigenetic patterns. The aim of this study was to use age-specific DNA methylation patterns to generate an accurate model for the prediction of chronological age using data from whole blood. In total, 45 age-associated CpG sites were selected based on their reported age coefficients in a previous extensive study and investigated using publicly available methylation data obtained from 1156 whole blood samples (aged 2-90 years) analysed with Illumina's genome-wide methylation platforms (27K/450K). Applying stepwise regression for variable selection, 23 of these CpG sites were identified that could significantly contribute to age prediction modelling and multiple regression analysis carried out with these markers provided an accurate prediction of age (R 2 =0.92, mean absolute error (MAE)=4.6 years). However, applying machine learning, and more specifically a generalised regression neural network model, the age prediction significantly improved (R 2 =0.96) with a MAE=3.3 years for the training set and 4.4 years for a blind test set of 231 cases. The machine learning approach used 16 CpG sites, located in 16 different genomic regions, with the top 3 predictors of age belonged to the genes NHLRC1, SCGN and CSNK1D. The proposed model was further tested using independent cohorts of 53 monozygotic twins (MAE=7.1 years) and a cohort of 1011 disease state individuals (MAE=7.2 years). Furthermore, we highlighted the age markers' potential applicability in samples other than blood by predicting age with similar accuracy in 265 saliva samples (R 2 =0.96) with a MAE=3.2 years (training set) and 4.0 years (blind test). In an attempt to create a sensitive and accurate age prediction test, a next

White matter tract covariance patterns predict age-declining cognitive abilities.

PubMed

Gazes, Yunglin; Bowman, F DuBois; Razlighi, Qolamreza R; O'Shea, Deirdre; Stern, Yaakov; Habeck, Christian

2016-01-15

Previous studies investigating the relationship of white matter (WM) integrity to cognitive abilities and aging have either focused on a global measure or a few selected WM tracts. Ideally, contribution from all of the WM tracts should be evaluated at the same time. However, the high collinearity among WM tracts precludes systematic examination of WM tracts simultaneously without sacrificing statistical power due to stringent multiple-comparison corrections. Multivariate covariance techniques enable comprehensive simultaneous examination of all WM tracts without being penalized for high collinearity among observations. In this study, Scaled Subprofile Modeling (SSM) was applied to the mean integrity of 18 major WM tracts to extract covariance patterns that optimally predicted four cognitive abilities (perceptual speed, episodic memory, fluid reasoning, and vocabulary) in 346 participants across ages 20 to 79years old. Using expression of the covariance patterns, age-independent effects of white matter integrity on cognition and the indirect effect of WM integrity on age-related differences in cognition were tested separately, but inferences from the indirect analyses were cautiously made given that cross-sectional data set was used in the analysis. A separate covariance pattern was identified that significantly predicted each cognitive ability after controlling for age except for vocabulary, but the age by WM covariance pattern interaction was not significant for any of the three abilities. Furthermore, each of the patterns mediated the effect of age on the respective cognitive ability. A distinct set of WM tracts was most influential in each of the three patterns. The WM covariance pattern accounting for fluid reasoning showed the most number of influential WM tracts whereas the episodic memory pattern showed the least number. Specific patterns of WM tracts make significant contributions to the age-related differences in perceptual speed, episodic memory, and

Prediction of gestational age based on genome-wide differentially methylated regions.

PubMed

Bohlin, J; Håberg, S E; Magnus, P; Reese, S E; Gjessing, H K; Magnus, M C; Parr, C L; Page, C M; London, S J; Nystad, W

2016-10-07

We explored the association between gestational age and cord blood DNA methylation at birth and whether DNA methylation could be effective in predicting gestational age due to limitations with the presently used methods. We used data from the Norwegian Mother and Child Birth Cohort study (MoBa) with Illumina HumanMethylation450 data measured for 1753 newborns in two batches: MoBa 1, n = 1068; and MoBa 2, n = 685. Gestational age was computed using both ultrasound and the last menstrual period. We evaluated associations between DNA methylation and gestational age and developed a statistical model for predicting gestational age using MoBa 1 for training and MoBa 2 for predictions. The prediction model was additionally used to compare ultrasound and last menstrual period-based gestational age predictions. Furthermore, both CpGs and associated genes detected in the training models were compared to those detected in a published prediction model for chronological age. There were 5474 CpGs associated with ultrasound gestational age after adjustment for a set of covariates, including estimated cell type proportions, and Bonferroni-correction for multiple testing. Our model predicted ultrasound gestational age more accurately than it predicted last menstrual period gestational age. DNA methylation at birth appears to be a good predictor of gestational age. Ultrasound gestational age is more strongly associated with methylation than last menstrual period gestational age. The CpGs linked with our gestational age prediction model, and their associated genes, differed substantially from the corresponding CpGs and genes associated with a chronological age prediction model.

Predicting age groups of Twitter users based on language and metadata features

PubMed Central

Morgan-Lopez, Antonio A.; Chew, Robert F.; Ruddle, Paul

2017-01-01

Health organizations are increasingly using social media, such as Twitter, to disseminate health messages to target audiences. Determining the extent to which the target audience (e.g., age groups) was reached is critical to evaluating the impact of social media education campaigns. The main objective of this study was to examine the separate and joint predictive validity of linguistic and metadata features in predicting the age of Twitter users. We created a labeled dataset of Twitter users across different age groups (youth, young adults, adults) by collecting publicly available birthday announcement tweets using the Twitter Search application programming interface. We manually reviewed results and, for each age-labeled handle, collected the 200 most recent publicly available tweets and user handles’ metadata. The labeled data were split into training and test datasets. We created separate models to examine the predictive validity of language features only, metadata features only, language and metadata features, and words/phrases from another age-validated dataset. We estimated accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 metrics for each model. An L1-regularized logistic regression model was conducted for each age group, and predicted probabilities between the training and test sets were compared for each age group. Cohen’s d effect sizes were calculated to examine the relative importance of significant features. Models containing both Tweet language features and metadata features performed the best (74% precision, 74% recall, 74% F1) while the model containing only Twitter metadata features were least accurate (58% precision, 60% recall, and 57% F1 score). Top predictive features included use of terms such as “school” for youth and “college” for young adults. Overall, it was more challenging to predict older adults accurately. These results suggest that examining linguistic and Twitter metadata features to predict youth and young adult Twitter users may be

A Culture-Brain Link: Negative Age Stereotypes Predict Alzheimer’s-disease Biomarkers

PubMed Central

Levy, Becca R.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Zonderman, Alan B.; Slade, Martin D.; Troncoso, Juan; Resnick, Susan M.

2016-01-01

Although negative age stereotypes have been found to predict adverse outcomes among older individuals, it was unknown whether the influence of stereotypes extends to brain changes associated with Alzheimer’s disease. To consider this possibility, we drew on the age stereotypes of dementia-free participants in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging that had been measured decades before yearly MRIs and brain autopsies were performed. Those with more negative age stereotypes earlier in life had significantly steeper hippocampal-volume loss, and significantly greater accumulation of neurofibrillary tangles and amyloid plaques at autopsy, adjusting for relevant covariates. These findings suggest a new pathway to identifying mechanisms and potential interventions related to the neuropathology of Alzheimer’s disease. PMID:26641877

Bayesian Optimization for Neuroimaging Pre-processing in Brain Age Classification and Prediction

PubMed Central

Lancaster, Jenessa; Lorenz, Romy; Leech, Rob; Cole, James H.

2018-01-01

Neuroimaging-based age prediction using machine learning is proposed as a biomarker of brain aging, relating to cognitive performance, health outcomes and progression of neurodegenerative disease. However, even leading age-prediction algorithms contain measurement error, motivating efforts to improve experimental pipelines. T1-weighted MRI is commonly used for age prediction, and the pre-processing of these scans involves normalization to a common template and resampling to a common voxel size, followed by spatial smoothing. Resampling parameters are often selected arbitrarily. Here, we sought to improve brain-age prediction accuracy by optimizing resampling parameters using Bayesian optimization. Using data on N = 2003 healthy individuals (aged 16–90 years) we trained support vector machines to (i) distinguish between young (<22 years) and old (>50 years) brains (classification) and (ii) predict chronological age (regression). We also evaluated generalisability of the age-regression model to an independent dataset (CamCAN, N = 648, aged 18–88 years). Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal voxel size and smoothing kernel size for each task. This procedure adaptively samples the parameter space to evaluate accuracy across a range of possible parameters, using independent sub-samples to iteratively assess different parameter combinations to arrive at optimal values. When distinguishing between young and old brains a classification accuracy of 88.1% was achieved, (optimal voxel size = 11.5 mm3, smoothing kernel = 2.3 mm). For predicting chronological age, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.08 years was achieved, (optimal voxel size = 3.73 mm3, smoothing kernel = 3.68 mm). This was compared to performance using default values of 1.5 mm3 and 4mm respectively, resulting in MAE = 5.48 years, though this 7.3% improvement was not statistically significant. When assessing generalisability, best performance was achieved when applying the entire Bayesian

Evaluation of three statistical prediction models for forensic age prediction based on DNA methylation.

PubMed

Smeers, Inge; Decorte, Ronny; Van de Voorde, Wim; Bekaert, Bram

2018-05-01

DNA methylation is a promising biomarker for forensic age prediction. A challenge that has emerged in recent studies is the fact that prediction errors become larger with increasing age due to interindividual differences in epigenetic ageing rates. This phenomenon of non-constant variance or heteroscedasticity violates an assumption of the often used method of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The aim of this study was to evaluate alternative statistical methods that do take heteroscedasticity into account in order to provide more accurate, age-dependent prediction intervals. A weighted least squares (WLS) regression is proposed as well as a quantile regression model. Their performances were compared against an OLS regression model based on the same dataset. Both models provided age-dependent prediction intervals which account for the increasing variance with age, but WLS regression performed better in terms of success rate in the current dataset. However, quantile regression might be a preferred method when dealing with a variance that is not only non-constant, but also not normally distributed. Ultimately the choice of which model to use should depend on the observed characteristics of the data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Personality Traits Predict the Developmental Course of Externalizing: A Four-wave Longitudinal Study Spanning Age 17 to Age 29

PubMed Central

Walton, Kate E.; Krueger, Robert F.; Elkins, Irene; D’Accordo, Cassandra; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William G.

2016-01-01

Objective The objective of the present study was to determine whether and how personality predicts the developmental course of externalizing problems, including antisocial behavior and substance dependence. Method In a large population-based longitudinal study (N=1252), the 11 personality traits assessed by the Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire were measured at age 17, and DSM diagnoses of adult antisocial behavior, alcohol dependence, and drug dependence were obtained at ages 17, 20, 24, and 29. We fit a quadratic multiple indicator latent growth model where the three diagnoses loaded onto an externalizing factor. Results This model fit the data well, and externalizing increased until it started to decline at age 24. High aggression and low control were the most significant predictors of the development of externalizing, with aggression playing a significant role in the development of externalizing across the 12-year time span, and control predicting the development from age 17 to 24. Conclusions The findings highlight the importance of considering the developmental course of externalizing in the context of personality and suggest that the specific personality traits of aggression and control might be targeted in externalizing prevention and intervention programs. PMID:26808279

Personality Traits Predict the Developmental Course of Externalizing: A Four-Wave Longitudinal Study Spanning Age 17 to Age 29.

PubMed

Walton, Kate E; Krueger, Robert F; Elkins, Irene; D'Accordo, Cassandra; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William G

2017-06-01

The objective of the present study was to determine whether and how personality predicts the developmental course of externalizing problems, including antisocial behavior and substance dependence. In a large, population-based longitudinal study (N = 1,252), the 11 personality traits assessed by the Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire were measured at age 17, and DSM diagnoses of adult antisocial behavior, alcohol dependence, and drug dependence were obtained at ages 17, 20, 24, and 29. We fit a quadratic multiple indicator latent growth model where the three diagnoses loaded onto an externalizing factor. This model fit the data well, and externalizing increased until it started to decline at age 24. High aggression and low control were the most significant predictors of the development of externalizing, with aggression playing a significant role in the development of externalizing across the 12-year time span, and control predicting the development from age 17 to 24. The findings highlight the importance of considering the developmental course of externalizing in the context of personality and suggest that the specific personality traits of aggression and control might be targeted in externalizing prevention and intervention programs. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Learning Temporal Statistics for Sensory Predictions in Aging.

PubMed

Luft, Caroline Di Bernardi; Baker, Rosalind; Goldstone, Aimee; Zhang, Yang; Kourtzi, Zoe

2016-03-01

Predicting future events based on previous knowledge about the environment is critical for successful everyday interactions. Here, we ask which brain regions support our ability to predict the future based on implicit knowledge about the past in young and older age. Combining behavioral and fMRI measurements, we test whether training on structured temporal sequences improves the ability to predict upcoming sensory events; we then compare brain regions involved in learning predictive structures between young and older adults. Our behavioral results demonstrate that exposure to temporal sequences without feedback facilitates the ability of young and older adults to predict the orientation of an upcoming stimulus. Our fMRI results provide evidence for the involvement of corticostriatal regions in learning predictive structures in both young and older learners. In particular, we showed learning-dependent fMRI responses for structured sequences in frontoparietal regions and the striatum (putamen) for young adults. However, for older adults, learning-dependent activations were observed mainly in subcortical (putamen, thalamus) regions but were weaker in frontoparietal regions. Significant correlations of learning-dependent behavioral and fMRI changes in these regions suggest a strong link between brain activations and behavioral improvement rather than general overactivation. Thus, our findings suggest that predicting future events based on knowledge of temporal statistics engages brain regions involved in implicit learning in both young and older adults.

Teachers' assessments of children aged eight predict life satisfaction in adolescence.

PubMed

Honkanen, Meri; Meri, Honkanen; Hurtig, Tuula; Tuula, Hurtig; Taanila, Anja; Anja, Taanila; Moilanen, Irma; Irma, Moilanen; Koponen, Hannu; Hannu, Koponen; Mäki, Pirjo; Pirjo, Mäki; Veijola, Juha; Juha, Veijola; Puustjärvi, Anita; Anita, Puustjärvi; Ebeling, Hanna; Hanna, Ebeling; Koivumaa-Honkanen, Heli; Heli, Koivumaa-Honkanen

2011-09-01

The objective was to investigate how teachers' assessments of children predict life satisfaction in adolescence. This is a prospective cohort study on the population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (n = 8,959). Information was gathered from parents, teachers and adolescents using questionnaires at the age of 7, 8 and 15. Response rates were 80-90%. Emotional and behavioural problems were assessed with Rutter Children's Behavioural Questionnaires for teachers (RB2) and parents (RA2) during the first grade at age 8. At adolescence, self-reported life satisfaction was measured with a question including five response alternatives. According to teachers' assessments, 13.9% of the children had high emotional or behavioural problems (RB2 ≥9). These assessments predicted life dissatisfaction in adolescence (OR(crude) = 1.77; 95% CI 1.43-2.20) in several models including also health behaviour and use of psychotropic medicine. However, introducing all the significant variables in the same model, RB2 lost its significance (OR = 1.28; 0.96-1.70), but good school achievement assessed by teachers was still a significant predictor. Life satisfaction in adolescence was associated with a variety of favourable concurrent factors. In conclusion teachers' assessments of children during the first school year predicted life satisfaction in adolescence. In mental health promotion, teachers' early assessments should be utilized for the benefit of children.

Predicting severe motor impairment in preterm children at age 5 years.

PubMed

Synnes, Anne; Anderson, Peter J; Grunau, Ruth E; Dewey, Deborah; Moddemann, Diane; Tin, Win; Davis, Peter G; Doyle, Lex W; Foster, Gary; Khairy, May; Nwaesei, Chukwuma; Schmidt, Barbara

2015-08-01

To determine whether the ability to predict severe motor impairment at age 5 years improves between birth and 18 months. Ancillary study of the Caffeine for Apnea of Prematurity Trial. International cohort of very low birth weight children who were assessed sequentially from birth to 5 years. Severe motor impairment was defined as a score <5th percentile on the Movement Assessment Battery of Children (MABC), or inability to complete the MABC because of cerebral palsy. Multivariable logistic regression cumulative risk models used four sets of predictor variables: early neonatal risk factors, risk factors at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age, risk factors at a corrected age of 18 months, and sociodemographic variables. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was generated for each model, and the four ROC curves were compared to determine if the addition of the new set of predictors significantly increased the area under the curve (AUC). Of 1469 children, 291 (19.8%) had a severe motor impairment at 5 years. The AUC increased from 0.650 soon after birth, to 0.718 (p<0.001) at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age, and to 0.797 at 18 months (p<0.001). Sociodemographic variables did not significantly improve the AUC (AUC=0.806; p=0.07). Prediction of severe motor impairment at 5 years of age using a cumulative risk model improves significantly from birth to 18 months of age in children with birth weights between 500 g and 1250 g. ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00182312. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Asphalt surface aging prediction (ASAP) system : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

The Asphalt Surface Aging Prediction (ASAP) project has been a 2.5 year effort to predict agerelated : embrittlement in asphalt pavement surfaces and to develop ground-based and airborne : systems to measure key spectral indicators needed for predict...

Significant SNPs have limited prediction ability for thyroid cancer

PubMed Central

Guo, Shicheng; Wang, Yu-Long; Li, Yi; Jin, Li; Xiong, Momiao; Ji, Qing-Hai; Wang, Jiucun

2014-01-01

Recently, five thyroid cancer significantly associated genetic variants (rs965513, rs944289, rs116909374, rs966423, and rs2439302) have been discovered and validated in two independent GWAS and numerous case–control studies, which were conducted in different populations. We genotyped the above five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in Han Chinese populations and performed thyroid cancer-risk predictions with nine machine learning methods. We found that four SNPs were significantly associated with thyroid cancer in Han Chinese population, while no polymorphism was observed for rs116909374. Small familial relative risks (1.02–1.05) and limited power to predict thyroid cancer (AUCs: 0.54–0.60) indicate limited clinical potential. Four significant SNPs have limited prediction ability for thyroid cancer. PMID:24591304

Novel method to predict body weight in children based on age and morphological facial features.

PubMed

Huang, Ziyin; Barrett, Jeffrey S; Barrett, Kyle; Barrett, Ryan; Ng, Chee M

2015-04-01

A new and novel approach of predicting the body weight of children based on age and morphological facial features using a three-layer feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) model is reported. The model takes in four parameters, including age-based CDC-inferred median body weight and three facial feature distances measured from digital facial images. In this study, thirty-nine volunteer subjects with age ranging from 6-18 years old and BW ranging from 18.6-96.4 kg were used for model development and validation. The final model has a mean prediction error of 0.48, a mean squared error of 18.43, and a coefficient of correlation of 0.94. The model shows significant improvement in prediction accuracy over several age-based body weight prediction methods. Combining with a facial recognition algorithm that can detect, extract and measure the facial features used in this study, mobile applications that incorporate this body weight prediction method may be developed for clinical investigations where access to scales is limited. © 2014, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Predicting human age using regional morphometry and inter-regional morphological similarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xun-Heng; Li, Lihua

2016-03-01

The goal of this study is predicting human age using neuro-metrics derived from structural MRI, as well as investigating the relationships between age and predictive neuro-metrics. To this end, a cohort of healthy subjects were recruited from 1000 Functional Connectomes Project. The ages of the participations were ranging from 7 to 83 (36.17+/-20.46). The structural MRI for each subject was preprocessed using FreeSurfer, resulting in regional cortical thickness, mean curvature, regional volume and regional surface area for 148 anatomical parcellations. The individual age was predicted from the combination of regional and inter-regional neuro-metrics. The prediction accuracy is r = 0.835, p < 0.00001, evaluated by Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted ages and actual ages. Moreover, the LASSO linear regression also found certain predictive features, most of which were inter-regional features. The turning-point of the developmental trajectories in human brain was around 40 years old based on regional cortical thickness. In conclusion, structural MRI could be potential biomarkers for the aging in human brain. The human age could be successfully predicted from the combination of regional morphometry and inter-regional morphological similarity. The inter-regional measures could be beneficial to investigating human brain connectome.

Predicting gestational age using neonatal metabolic markers

PubMed Central

Ryckman, Kelli K.; Berberich, Stanton L.; Dagle, John M.

2016-01-01

Background Accurate gestational age estimation is extremely important for clinical care decisions of the newborn as well as for perinatal health research. Although prenatal ultrasound dating is one of the most accurate methods for estimating gestational age, it is not feasible in all settings. Identifying novel and accurate methods for gestational age estimation at birth is important, particularly for surveillance of preterm birth rates in areas without routine ultrasound dating. Objective We hypothesized that metabolic and endocrine markers captured by routine newborn screening could improve gestational age estimation in the absence of prenatal ultrasound technology. Study Design This is a retrospective analysis of 230,013 newborn metabolic screening records collected by the Iowa Newborn Screening Program between 2004 and 2009. The data were randomly split into a model-building dataset (n = 153,342) and a model-testing dataset (n = 76,671). We performed multiple linear regression modeling with gestational age, in weeks, as the outcome measure. We examined 44 metabolites, including biomarkers of amino acid and fatty acid metabolism, thyroid-stimulating hormone, and 17-hydroxyprogesterone. The coefficient of determination (R2) and the root-mean-square error were used to evaluate models in the model-building dataset that were then tested in the model-testing dataset. Results The newborn metabolic regression model consisted of 88 parameters, including the intercept, 37 metabolite measures, 29 squared metabolite measures, and 21 cubed metabolite measures. This model explained 52.8% of the variation in gestational age in the model-testing dataset. Gestational age was predicted within 1 week for 78% of the individuals and within 2 weeks of gestation for 95% of the individuals. This model yielded an area under the curve of 0.899 (95% confidence interval 0.895−0.903) in differentiating those born preterm (<37 weeks) from those born term (≥37 weeks). In the subset of

DNA methylation-based age prediction from various tissues and body fluids

PubMed Central

Jung, Sang-Eun; Shin, Kyoung-Jin; Lee, Hwan Young

2017-01-01

Aging is a natural and gradual process in human life. It is influenced by heredity, environment, lifestyle, and disease. DNA methylation varies with age, and the ability to predict the age of donor using DNA from evidence materials at a crime scene is of considerable value in forensic investigations. Recently, many studies have reported age prediction models based on DNA methylation from various tissues and body fluids. Those models seem to be very promising because of their high prediction accuracies. In this review, the changes of age-associated DNA methylation and the age prediction models for various tissues and body fluids were examined, and then the applicability of the DNA methylation-based age prediction method to the forensic investigations was discussed. This will improve the understandings about DNA methylation markers and their potential to be used as biomarkers in the forensic field, as well as the clinical field. PMID:28946940

Predictive aging results in radiation environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillen, Kenneth T.; Clough, Roger L.

1993-06-01

We have previously derived a time-temperature-dose rate superposition methodology, which, when applicable, can be used to predict polymer degradation versus dose rate, temperature and exposure time. This methodology results in predictive capabilities at the low dose rates and long time periods appropriate, for instance, to ambient nuclear power plant environments. The methodology was successfully applied to several polymeric cable materials and then verified for two of the materials by comparisons of the model predictions with 12 year, low-dose-rate aging data on these materials from a nuclear environment. In this paper, we provide a more detailed discussion of the methodology and apply it to data obtained on a number of additional nuclear power plant cable insulation (a hypalon, a silicone rubber and two ethylene-tetrafluoroethylenes) and jacket (a hypalon) materials. We then show that the predicted, low-dose-rate results for our materials are in excellent agreement with long-term (7-9 year) low-dose-rate results recently obtained for the same material types actually aged under bnuclear power plant conditions. Based on a combination of the modelling and long-term results, we find indications of reasonably similar degradation responses among several different commercial formulations for each of the following "generic" materials: hypalon, ethylene-tetrafluoroethylene, silicone rubber and PVC. If such "generic" behavior can be further substantiated through modelling and long-term results on additional formulations, predictions of cable life for other commercial materials of the same generic types would be greatly facilitated.

Prediction of Selected Fitness Indicators by Gender, Age, Alienation, and Perceived Competence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burkhalter, Nancy A.; Wendt, Janice C.

2001-01-01

Examined relationships between physical factors, psychological factors, gender, and age in middle school physical education (PE) students. Data on PE alienation, perceived competency toward physical fitness (PCf) and physical activity (PCp), and various fitness and strength measures indicated that gender and PCf significantly predicted fitness.…

Predicting gestational age using neonatal metabolic markers.

PubMed

Ryckman, Kelli K; Berberich, Stanton L; Dagle, John M

2016-04-01

Accurate gestational age estimation is extremely important for clinical care decisions of the newborn as well as for perinatal health research. Although prenatal ultrasound dating is one of the most accurate methods for estimating gestational age, it is not feasible in all settings. Identifying novel and accurate methods for gestational age estimation at birth is important, particularly for surveillance of preterm birth rates in areas without routine ultrasound dating. We hypothesized that metabolic and endocrine markers captured by routine newborn screening could improve gestational age estimation in the absence of prenatal ultrasound technology. This is a retrospective analysis of 230,013 newborn metabolic screening records collected by the Iowa Newborn Screening Program between 2004 and 2009. The data were randomly split into a model-building dataset (n = 153,342) and a model-testing dataset (n = 76,671). We performed multiple linear regression modeling with gestational age, in weeks, as the outcome measure. We examined 44 metabolites, including biomarkers of amino acid and fatty acid metabolism, thyroid-stimulating hormone, and 17-hydroxyprogesterone. The coefficient of determination (R(2)) and the root-mean-square error were used to evaluate models in the model-building dataset that were then tested in the model-testing dataset. The newborn metabolic regression model consisted of 88 parameters, including the intercept, 37 metabolite measures, 29 squared metabolite measures, and 21 cubed metabolite measures. This model explained 52.8% of the variation in gestational age in the model-testing dataset. Gestational age was predicted within 1 week for 78% of the individuals and within 2 weeks of gestation for 95% of the individuals. This model yielded an area under the curve of 0.899 (95% confidence interval 0.895-0.903) in differentiating those born preterm (<37 weeks) from those born term (≥37 weeks). In the subset of infants born small-for-gestational age

[Metacarpophalangeal and carpal numeric indices to calculate bone age and predict adult size].

PubMed

Ebrí Torné, B; Ebrí Verde, I

2012-04-01

This work presents new numerical methods from the meta-carpal-phalangeal and carpal indexes, for calculating bone age. In addition, these new methods enable the adult height to be predicted using multiple regression equations. The longitudinal case series studied included 160 healthy children from Zaragoza, of both genders, aged between 6 months and 20 years, and studied annually, including the radiological study. For the statistical analysis the statistical package "Statistix", as well as the Excel program, was used. The new indexes are closely co-related to the chronological age, thus leading to predictive equations for the calculation of the bone age of children up to 20 years of age. In addition, it presents particular equations for up to 4 years of age, in order to optimise the diagnosis at these early ages. The resulting bones ages can be applied to numerical standard deviation tables, as well as to an equivalences chart, which directly gives us the ossification diagnosis. The predictive equations of adult height allow a reliable forecast of the future height of the studied child. These forecasts, analysed by the Student test did not show significant differences as regards the adult height that children of the case series finally achieved. The results can be obtained with a pocket calculator or through free software available for the reader. For the first time, and using a centre-developed and non-foreign methods, bones age standards and adult height predictive equations for the study of children, are presented. We invite the practitioner to use these meta-carpal-phalangeal and carpal methods in order to achieve the necessary experience to apply it to a healthy population and those with different disorders. Copyright © 2011 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Teaching Significant Figures Using Age Conversions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crute, Thomas D.

2005-01-01

Some useful approaches to assist students with the uncertainty of measurement and the necessity of significant figures through age conversion exercise and activity are presented. It showed that while two people might be born on the same date, they are not born at the same instant once, it considers the birth time to an appropriate number of…

Early biometric lag in the prediction of small for gestational age neonates and preeclampsia.

PubMed

Schwartz, Nadav; Pessel, Cara; Coletta, Jaclyn; Krieger, Abba M; Timor-Tritsch, Ilan E

2011-01-01

An early fetal growth lag may be a marker of future complications. We sought to determine the utility of early biometric variables in predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes. In this retrospective cohort study, the crown-rump length at 11 to 14 weeks and the head circumference, biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference, femur length, humerus length, transverse cerebellar diameter, and estimated fetal weight at 18 to 24 weeks were converted to an estimated gestational age using published regression formulas. Sonographic fetal growth (difference between each biometric gestational age and the crown-rump length gestational age) minus expected fetal growth (number of days elapsed between the two scans) yielded the biometric growth lag. These lags were tested as predictors of small for gestational age (SGA) neonates (≤10th percentile) and preeclampsia. A total of 245 patients were included. Thirty-two (13.1%) delivered an SGA neonate, and 43 (17.6%) had the composite outcome. The head circumference, biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference, and estimated fetal weight lags were identified as significant predictors of SGA neonates after adjusted analyses (P < .05). The addition of either the estimated fetal weight or abdominal circumference lag to maternal characteristics alone significantly improved the performance of the predictive model, achieving areas under the curve of 0.72 and 0.74, respectively. No significant association was found between the biometric lag variables and the development of preeclampsia. Routinely available biometric data can be used to improve the prediction of adverse outcomes such as SGA. These biometric lags should be considered in efforts to develop screening algorithms for adverse outcomes.

Recent and past musical activity predicts cognitive aging variability: direct comparison with general lifestyle activities.

PubMed

Hanna-Pladdy, Brenda; Gajewski, Byron

2012-01-01

Studies evaluating the impact of modifiable lifestyle factors on cognition offer potential insights into sources of cognitive aging variability. Recently, we reported an association between extent of musical instrumental practice throughout the life span (greater than 10 years) on preserved cognitive functioning in advanced age. These findings raise the question of whether there are training-induced brain changes in musicians that can transfer to non-musical cognitive abilities to allow for compensation of age-related cognitive declines. However, because of the relationship between engagement in general lifestyle activities and preserved cognition, it remains unclear whether these findings are specifically driven by musical training or the types of individuals likely to engage in greater activities in general. The current study controlled for general activity level in evaluating cognition between musicians and nomusicians. Also, the timing of engagement (age of acquisition, past versus recent) was assessed in predictive models of successful cognitive aging. Seventy age and education matched older musicians (>10 years) and non-musicians (ages 59-80) were evaluated on neuropsychological tests and general lifestyle activities. Musicians scored higher on tests of phonemic fluency, verbal working memory, verbal immediate recall, visuospatial judgment, and motor dexterity, but did not differ in other general leisure activities. Partition analyses were conducted on significant cognitive measures to determine aspects of musical training predictive of enhanced cognition. The first partition analysis revealed education best predicted visuospatial functions in musicians, followed by recent musical engagement which offset low education. In the second partition analysis, early age of musical acquisition (<9 years) predicted enhanced verbal working memory in musicians, while analyses for other measures were not predictive. Recent and past musical activity, but not general

Adolescent oligomenorrhea (age 14-19) tracks into the third decade of life (age 20-28) and predicts increased cardiovascular risk factors and metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Glueck, Charles J; Woo, Jessica G; Khoury, Philip R; Morrison, John A; Daniels, Stephen R; Wang, Ping

2015-04-01

Assess whether adolescent oligomenorrhea (age 14-19) tracks into young adulthood (age 20-28) and predicts increased cardiometabolic risk factors, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and impaired fasting glucose-type II diabetes mellitus (IFG+T2DM). Prospective study of menstrual cyclicity and its metabolic effects in 865 black and white schoolgirls from age 9 to 19, and 605 of these 865 girls from age 20 to 28. Patterns of menstrual delays (oligomenorrhea) during ages 14-19 and ages 20-28 were closely related (p<.0001). Adolescent menses delay (ages 14-19, p<.0001), mean insulin (ages 20-28, p=.0003), and self-identified polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS, p=.049) predicted ages 20-28 menses delay. Menses delays during ages 14-19 and 20-28, and, their interaction product were correlated with IFG+T2DM and MetS at ages 20-28. Waist circumference (ages 20-28, p<.0001), mean triglyceride (ages 20-28, p=.005), and the number of average menstrual cycles≥42 days (ages 20-28, p=.04) predicted IFG+T2DM (ages 20-28). MetS (ages 9-19, p<.0001), mean insulin (ages 20-28, p=.0002), the number of ≥42 day gaps between menstrual periods (ages 20-28, p=.02), and cigarette smoking at age 18-19 (p=.04) were significant explanatory variables for MetS at ages 27-28. As MetS status category changed from age 14-19 to 27-28 from best to worst: (no → no), (yes → no), (yes → yes), (no → yes), the number of women with ≥2 menses delays during ages 20-28 rose from 3% to 4% to 15% to 17%, p=.0001. MetS status change from age 9-19 to 27-28 was positively associated with mean insulin (age 20-28, p<.0001), cigarette smoking (age 24-25, p=.01) and the number of menses delays during ages 20-28 (p=.04). Menstrual patterns track from adolescence to young adulthood, and oligomenorrhea predicts MetS and IFG+T2DM. Patterns of menses delays in adolescence should be considered as a significant risk factor for future development of young adult IFG+T2DM, MetS, oligomenorrhea, and polycystic ovary syndrome

Sustained Attention at Age 5 Predicts Attention-Related Problems at Age 9

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Anne; Razza, Rachel A.; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne

2012-01-01

This study tested whether two aspects of sustained attention (focused attention and lack of impulsivity) measured at child age 5 predicted attention problems reported by mothers and teachers at age 9. Because lack of impulsivity reflects the executive control network, and ADHD is commonly characterized as a deficit in executive function, it was…

Evolutionary significance of ageing in the wild.

PubMed

Kowald, Axel; Kirkwood, Thomas B L

2015-11-01

Human lifespan has risen dramatically over the last 150 years, leading to a significant increase in the fraction of aged people in the population. Until recently it was believed that this contrasted strongly with the situation in wild populations of animals, where the likelihood of encountering demonstrably senescent individuals was believed to be negligible. Over the recent years, however, a series of field studies has appeared that shows ageing can also be observed for many species in the wild. We discuss here the relevance of this finding for the different evolutionary theories of ageing, since it has been claimed that ageing in the wild is incompatible with the so-called non-adaptive (non-programmed) theories, i.e. those in which ageing is presumed not to offer a direct selection benefit. We show that a certain proportion of aged individuals in the population is fully compatible with the antagonistic pleiotropy and the disposable soma theories, while it is difficult to reconcile with the mutation accumulation theory. We also quantify the costs of ageing using life history data from recent field studies and a range of possible metrics. We discuss the merits and problems of the different metrics and also introduce a new metric, yearly death toll, that aims directly at quantifying the deaths caused by the ageing process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Timing of Maturational Spurts in Skeletal Age

PubMed Central

Nahhas, Ramzi W.; Sherwood, Richard J.; Chumlea, Wm. Cameron; Towne, Bradford; Duren, Dana L.

2014-01-01

Measures of maturity provide windows into the timing and tempo of childhood growth and maturation. Delayed maturation in a single child, or systemically in a population, can result from either genetic or environmental factors. In terms of the skeleton, delayed maturation may result in short stature or indicate another underlying issue. Thus, prediction of the timing of a maturational spurt is often desirable in order to determine the likelihood that a child will catch up to their chronological age peers. Serial data from the Fels Longitudinal Study were used to predict future skeletal age conditional on current skeletal age and to predict the timing of maturational spurts. For children who were delayed relative to their chronological age peers, the like-lihood of catch-up maturation increased through the average age of onset of puberty and decreased prior to the average age of peak height velocity. For boys, the probability of an imminent maturational spurt was higher for those who were less mature. For girls aged 11 to 13 years, however, this probability was higher for those who were more mature, potentially indicating the presence of a skeletal maturation plateau between multiple spurts. The prediction model, available on the web, is most relevant to children of European ancestry living in the Midwestern US. Our model may also provide insight into the tempo of maturation for children in other populations, but must be applied with caution if those populations are known to have high burdens of environmental stressors not typical of the Midwestern US. Am J Phys Anthropol 150:68–75, 2013. PMID:23283666

Electrophysiological evidence for preserved primacy of lexical prediction in aging.

PubMed

Dave, Shruti; Brothers, Trevor A; Traxler, Matthew J; Ferreira, Fernanda; Henderson, John M; Swaab, Tamara Y

2018-05-28

Young adults show consistent neural benefits of predictable contexts when processing upcoming words, but these benefits are less clear-cut in older adults. Here we disentangle the neural correlates of prediction accuracy and contextual support during word processing, in order to test current theories that suggest that neural mechanisms underlying predictive processing are specifically impaired in older adults. During a sentence comprehension task, older and younger readers were asked to predict passage-final words and report the accuracy of these predictions. Age-related reductions were observed for N250 and N400 effects of prediction accuracy, as well as for N400 effects of contextual support independent of prediction accuracy. Furthermore, temporal primacy of predictive processing (i.e., earlier facilitation for successful predictions) was preserved across the lifespan, suggesting that predictive mechanisms are unlikely to be uniquely impaired in older adults. In addition, older adults showed prediction effects on frontal post-N400 positivities (PNPs) that were similar in amplitude to PNPs in young adults. Previous research has shown correlations between verbal fluency and lexical prediction in older adult readers, suggesting that the production system may be linked to capacity for lexical prediction, especially in aging. The current study suggests that verbal fluency modulates PNP effects of contextual support, but not prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings suggest that aging does not result in specific declines in lexical prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Height prediction equations for even-aged upland oak stands

Treesearch

Donald E. Hilt; Martin E. Dale

1982-01-01

Forest growth models that use predicted tree diameters or diameter distributions require a reliable height-prediction model to obtain volume estimates because future height-diameter relationships will not necessarily be the same as the present height-diameter relationship. A total tree height prediction equation for even-aged upland oak stands is presented. Predicted...

Predicting and detecting adverse drug reactions in old age: challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Mangoni, Arduino A

2012-05-01

Increased, often inappropriate, drug exposure, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic changes, reduced homeostatic reserve and frailty increase the risk of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in the older population, thereby imposing a significant public health burden. Predicting and diagnosing ADRs in old age presents significant challenges for the clinician, even when specific risk scoring systems are available. The picture is further compounded by the potential adverse impact of several drugs on more 'global' health indicators, for example, physical function and independence, and the fragmentation of care (e.g., increased number of treating doctors and care transitions) experienced by older patients during their clinical journey. The current knowledge of drug safety in old age is also curtailed by the lack of efficacy and safety data from pre-marketing studies. Moreover, little consideration is given to individual patients' experiences and reporting of specific ADRs, particularly in the presence of cognitive impairment. Pending additional data on these issues, the close review and monitoring of individual patients' drug prescribing, clinical status and biochemical parameters remain essential to predict and detect ADRs in old age. Recently developed strategies, for example, medication reconciliation and trigger tool methodology, have the potential for ADRs risk mitigation in this population. However, more information is required on their efficacy and applicability in different healthcare settings.

Visible skin colouration predicts perception of male facial age, health and attractiveness.

PubMed

Fink, B; Bunse, L; Matts, P J; D'Emiliano, D

2012-08-01

Although there is evidence that perception of facial age, health and attractiveness is informed by shape characteristics as well as by visible skin condition, studies on the latter have focused almost exclusively on female skin. Recent research, however, suggests that a decrease in skin colour homogeneity leads to older, less healthy and less attractive ratings of facial skin in both women and men. Here, we elaborate on the significance of the homogeneity of visible skin colouration in men by testing the hypothesis that perception of age, health and attractiveness of (non-contextual) digitally isolated fields of cheek skin only can predict that of whole facial images. Facial digital images of 160 British men (all Caucasian) aged between 10 and 70 were blind-rated for age, health and attractiveness by a total of 147 men and 154 women (mean age = 22.95, SD = 4.26), and these ratings were related to those of corresponding images of cheek skin reported by Fink et al. (J. Eur. Acad. Dermatol. Venereol. in press). Linear regression analysis showed that age, health and attractiveness perception of men's faces could be predicted by the ratings of cheek skin only, such that older men were viewed as older, less healthy and less attractive. This result underlines once again the potent signalling role of skin in its own right, independent of shape or other factors and suggests strongly that visible skin condition, and skin colour homogeneity in particular, plays a significant role in the perception of men's faces. © 2012 The Authors. ICS © 2012 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

Do infant vocabulary skills predict school-age language and literacy outcomes?

PubMed

Duff, Fiona J; Reen, Gurpreet; Plunkett, Kim; Nation, Kate

2015-08-01

Strong associations between infant vocabulary and school-age language and literacy skills would have important practical and theoretical implications: Preschool assessment of vocabulary skills could be used to identify children at risk of reading and language difficulties, and vocabulary could be viewed as a cognitive foundation for reading. However, evidence to date suggests predictive ability from infant vocabulary to later language and literacy is low. This study provides an investigation into, and interpretation of, the magnitude of such infant to school-age relationships. Three hundred British infants whose vocabularies were assessed by parent report in the 2nd year of life (between 16 and 24 months) were followed up on average 5 years later (ages ranged from 4 to 9 years), when their vocabulary, phonological and reading skills were measured. Structural equation modelling of age-regressed scores was used to assess the strength of longitudinal relationships. Infant vocabulary (a latent factor of receptive and expressive vocabulary) was a statistically significant predictor of later vocabulary, phonological awareness, reading accuracy and reading comprehension (accounting for between 4% and 18% of variance). Family risk for language or literacy difficulties explained additional variance in reading (approximately 10%) but not language outcomes. Significant longitudinal relationships between preliteracy vocabulary knowledge and subsequent reading support the theory that vocabulary is a cognitive foundation of both reading accuracy and reading comprehension. Importantly however, the stability of vocabulary skills from infancy to later childhood is too low to be sufficiently predictive of language outcomes at an individual level - a finding that fits well with the observation that the majority of 'late talkers' resolve their early language difficulties. For reading outcomes, prediction of future difficulties is likely to be improved when considering family

Disease-aging network reveals significant roles of aging genes in connecting genetic diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Jiguang; Zhang, Shihua; Wang, Yong; Chen, Luonan; Zhang, Xiang-Sun

2009-09-01

One of the challenging problems in biology and medicine is exploring the underlying mechanisms of genetic diseases. Recent studies suggest that the relationship between genetic diseases and the aging process is important in understanding the molecular mechanisms of complex diseases. Although some intricate associations have been investigated for a long time, the studies are still in their early stages. In this paper, we construct a human disease-aging network to study the relationship among aging genes and genetic disease genes. Specifically, we integrate human protein-protein interactions (PPIs), disease-gene associations, aging-gene associations, and physiological system-based genetic disease classification information in a single graph-theoretic framework and find that (1) human disease genes are much closer to aging genes than expected by chance; and (2) diseases can be categorized into two types according to their relationships with aging. Type I diseases have their genes significantly close to aging genes, while type II diseases do not. Furthermore, we examine the topological characters of the disease-aging network from a systems perspective. Theoretical results reveal that the genes of type I diseases are in a central position of a PPI network while type II are not; (3) more importantly, we define an asymmetric closeness based on the PPI network to describe relationships between diseases, and find that aging genes make a significant contribution to associations among diseases, especially among type I diseases. In conclusion, the network-based study provides not only evidence for the intricate relationship between the aging process and genetic diseases, but also biological implications for prying into the nature of human diseases.

Age, gender and tumour size predict work capacity after surgical treatment of vestibular schwannomas.

PubMed

Al-Shudifat, Abdul Rahman; Kahlon, Babar; Höglund, Peter; Soliman, Ahmed Y; Lindskog, Kristoffer; Siesjo, Peter

2014-01-01

The aim of the present study was to identify predictive factors for outcome after surgery of vestibular schwannomas. This is a retrospective study with partially collected prospective data of patients who were surgically treated for vestibular schwannomas at a single institution from 1979 to 2000. Patients with recurrent tumours, NF2 and those incapable of answering questionnaires were excluded from the study. The short form 36 (SF36) questionnaire and a specific questionnaire regarding neurological status, work status and independent life (IL) status were sent to all eligible patients. The questionnaires were sent to 430 eligible patients (out of 537) and 395 (93%) responded. Scores for work capacity (WC) and IL were compared with SF36 scores as outcome estimates. Patients were divided into two groups (<64, ≥64-years-old) in order to assess them for either WC or IL. Putative preoperative and postoperative predictive factors were tested in univariate and multivariable regression analysis for the outcome scores of WC, IL and SF36. In the group <64 years, age, gender and tumour diameter were independent predictive factors for postoperative WC in multivariate analysis. A high-risk group was identified in women with age >50 years and tumour diameter >25 mm. In patients ≥64, gender and tumour diameter were significant predictive factors for IL in univariate analysis. Perioperative and postoperative objective factors as length of surgery, blood loss and complications did not predict outcome in the multivariable analysis for any age group. Patients' assessment of change in balance function was the only neurological factor that showed significance both in univariate and multivariable analysis in both age cohorts. While SF36 scores were lower in surgically treated patients in relation to normograms for the general population, they did not correlate significantly to WC and IL. The SF36 questionnaire did not correlate to outcome measures as WC and IL in patients

Predicting significant torso trauma.

PubMed

Nirula, Ram; Talmor, Daniel; Brasel, Karen

2005-07-01

Identification of motor vehicle crash (MVC) characteristics associated with thoracoabdominal injury would advance the development of automatic crash notification systems (ACNS) by improving triage and response times. Our objective was to determine the relationships between MVC characteristics and thoracoabdominal trauma to develop a torso injury probability model. Drivers involved in crashes from 1993 to 2001 within the National Automotive Sampling System were reviewed. Relationships between torso injury and MVC characteristics were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the model to current ACNS models. There were a total of 56,466 drivers. Age, ejection, braking, avoidance, velocity, restraints, passenger-side impact, rollover, and vehicle weight and type were associated with injury (p < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (83.9) was significantly greater than current ACNS models. We have developed a thoracoabdominal injury probability model that may improve patient triage when used with ACNS.

Gaze distribution analysis and saliency prediction across age groups.

PubMed

Krishna, Onkar; Helo, Andrea; Rämä, Pia; Aizawa, Kiyoharu

2018-01-01

Knowledge of the human visual system helps to develop better computational models of visual attention. State-of-the-art models have been developed to mimic the visual attention system of young adults that, however, largely ignore the variations that occur with age. In this paper, we investigated how visual scene processing changes with age and we propose an age-adapted framework that helps to develop a computational model that can predict saliency across different age groups. Our analysis uncovers how the explorativeness of an observer varies with age, how well saliency maps of an age group agree with fixation points of observers from the same or different age groups, and how age influences the center bias tendency. We analyzed the eye movement behavior of 82 observers belonging to four age groups while they explored visual scenes. Explorative- ness was quantified in terms of the entropy of a saliency map, and area under the curve (AUC) metrics was used to quantify the agreement analysis and the center bias tendency. Analysis results were used to develop age adapted saliency models. Our results suggest that the proposed age-adapted saliency model outperforms existing saliency models in predicting the regions of interest across age groups.

Risk Factors in Preschool Children for Predicting Asthma During the Preschool Age and the Early School Age: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Bao, Yixia; Chen, Zhimin; Liu, Enmei; Xiang, Li; Zhao, Deyu; Hong, Jianguo

2017-11-18

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors of asthma among children < 6 years old (preschool age) for predicting asthma during the preschool age and early school age (≤ 10 years of age). MEDLINE, Cochrane, EMBASE, and Google Scholar databases were searched until June 30, 2017. Prospective or retrospective cohort and case-control studies were included. Studies had to have evaluated risk factors or a predictive model for developing asthma in children ≤ 6 years of age or persistent asthma in early school age. A total of 17 studies were included in the analysis. Factors associated with developing asthma in children ≤ 10 years of age (both pre-school and early school age) included male gender (pooled OR = 1.70, P < 0.001), atopic dermatitis (pooled OR = 2.02, P < 0.001), a family history of asthma (pooled OR = 2.20, P < 0.001), and serum IgE levels ≥ 60 kU/l or having specific IgE (pooled OR = 2.36, P < 0.001). A history of exposure to smoke or wheezing was also associated with persistent asthma in early school age (pooled OR = 1.51, P = 0.030 and pooled OR = 2.59, P < 0.001, respectively). In general, asthma predictive models (e.g., API, PIAMA, PAPS) had relatively low sensitivity (range, 21% to 71.4%) but high specificity (range, 69% to 98%). The study found that male gender, exposure to smoke, atopic dermatitis, family history of asthma, history of wheezing, and serum IgE level ≥ 60 kU/l or having specific IgE were significantly associated with developing asthma by either preschool or early school age. Asthma predictive models can be developed by those risk factors.

Predicting Dyslexia at Age 11 from a Risk Index Questionnaire at Age 5

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Helland, Turid; Plante, Elena; Hugdahl, Kenneth

2011-01-01

This study focused on predicting dyslexia in children ahead of formal literacy training. Because dyslexia is a constitutional impairment, risk factors should be seen in preschool. It was hypothesized that data gathered at age 5 using questions targeting the dyslexia endophenotype should be reliable and valid predictors of dyslexia at age 11. A…

Ultra-weak photon emission of hands in aging prediction.

PubMed

Zhao, Xin; van Wijk, Eduard; Yan, Yu; van Wijk, Roeland; Yang, Huanming; Zhang, Yan; Wang, Jian

2016-09-01

Aging has been one of the several topics intensely investigated during recent decades. More scientists have been scrutinizing mechanisms behind the human aging process. Ultra-weak photon emission is known as one type of spontaneous photon emission that can be detected with a highly sensitive single photon counting photomultiplier tube (PMT) from the surface of human bodies. It may reflect the body's oxidative damage. Our aim was to examine whether ultra-weak photon emission from a human hand is able to predict one's chronological age. Sixty subjects were recruited and grouped by age. We examined four areas of each hand: palm side of fingers, palm side of hand, dorsum side of fingers, and dorsum side of hand. Left and right hand were measured synchronously with two independent PMTs. Mean strength and Fano factor values of photon counts were utilized to compare the UPE patterns of males and females of different age groups. Subsequently, we utilized UPE data from the most sensitive PMT to develop an age prediction model. We randomly picked 49 subjects to construct the model, whereas the remaining 11 subjects were utilized for validation. The results demonstrated that the model was a good regression compared to the observed values (Pearson's r=0.6, adjusted R square=0.4, p=9.4E-7, accuracy=49/60). Further analysis revealed that the average difference between the chronological age and predicted age was only 7.6±0.8years. It was concluded that this fast and non-invasive photon technology is sufficiently promising to be developed for the estimation of biological aging. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Self-reported craft expertise predicts maintenance of spatial ability in old age.

PubMed

Bailey, Shannon K T; Sims, Valerie K

2014-05-01

Three hundred and three female participants between the ages of 18 and 77 reported their experience in crafting (sewing, knitting, and crocheting) and completed a measure of spatial ability: The Paper Folding Test. To investigate the connection between spatial ability performance, age, and craft expertise, an ANOVA was conducted for the Paper Folding Test using two levels of crafting expertise (High and Low) and three age categories (younger adults: 18-39, middle-aged adults: 40-59, and older adults: 60-77). Performance on the spatial ability test declined with age as predicted from previous literature. However, there was a significant Age by Expertise interaction. No difference was found between High and Low craft expertise groups in younger adults (18-39), but there was a growing difference between expertise groups in middle-aged adults (40-59) and older adults (60-77). The results suggest that continued hands-on experience in spatial domains is a predictor of maintenance of spatial ability across the life span.

Age and Stress Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

Genoa is a software product that predicts progressive aging and failure in a variety of materials. It is the result of a SBIR contract between the Glenn Research Center and Alpha Star Corporation. Genoa allows designers to determine if the materials they plan on applying to a structure are up to the task or if alternate materials should be considered. Genoa's two feature applications are its progressive failure simulations and its test verification. It allows for a reduction in inspection frequency, rapid design solutions, and manufacturing with low cost materials. It will benefit the aerospace, airline, and automotive industries, with future applications for other uses.

Prediction of BMI at age 11 in a longitudinal sample of the Ulm Birth Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Walter, Viola; Wabitsch, Martin; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Brenner, Hermann; Schimmelmann, Benno G.

2017-01-01

Obesity is one of the greatest public health challenges in the world with childhood prevalence rates between 20–26% and numerous associated health risks. The aim of the current study was to analyze the 11-year follow-up data of the Ulm Birth Cohort Study (UBCS), to identify whether abnormal eating behavior patterns, especially restrained eating, predict body mass index (BMI) at 11 years of age and to explore other factors known to be longitudinally associated with it. Of the original UBCS, n = 422 children (~ 40% of the original sample) and their parents participated in the 11-year follow-up. BMI at age 8 and 11 as well as information on restrained eating, psychological problems, depressive symptoms, lifestyle, and IQ at age 8 were assessed. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to predict children’s BMI scores at age 11. PLS-SEM explained 68% of the variance of BMI at age 11, with BMI at age 8 being the most important predictor. Restrained eating, via BMI at age 8 as well as parental BMI, had further weak associations with BMI at age 11; no other predictor was statistically significant. Since established overweight at age 8 already predicts BMI scores at age 11 longitudinally, obesity interventions should be implemented in early childhood. PMID:28832593

How age and gender predict illness course in a first-episode nonaffective psychosis cohort.

PubMed

Drake, Richard J; Addington, Jean; Viswanathan, Ananth C; Lewis, Shôn W; Cotter, Jack; Yung, Alison R; Abel, Kathryn M

2016-03-01

Male gender and young age at onset of schizophrenia are traditionally associated with poor treatment outcome and often used to determine prognosis. However, many studies use nonincident samples and fail to adjust for symptom severity at onset. We hypothesized that age and gender would influence severity of presentation but would not predict outcome after adjustment for symptoms at presentation. 628 people with first-episode ICD-9 and DSM-IV nonaffective psychosis from 2 historical cohorts recruited from sequential presentations in Canada and the United Kingdom (1996-1998) were assessed prospectively at presentation and over 12-18 months using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). Models of the age-at-onset distributions with 2 underlying modes at similar ages in women (ages 23 years and 47 years) and men (ages 22 years and 46 years) had relatively good fits compared to single-mode models (χ(2)1 better by 9.2 for females, 8.0 for males, both P < .05). At presentation, scores for negative symptoms were 1.84 points worse for males (95% CI, 1.05 to 2.58; P < .001) in a mixed effects model. Younger age also predicted higher negative scores at presentation (partial correlation r = -0.18, P < .01; P < .001 in the mixed effects model). Findings were similar for cognitive-disorganized symptoms. However, after controlling for baseline symptoms, age at onset and gender did not significantly predict subsequent symptom course in the mixed effects models. Gender and age at onset are independently associated with symptoms at presentation but not with medium-term course of schizophrenia. This finding reinforces the importance of early identification and prevention of severe negative symptoms at first episode, whatever an individual's age and gender. © Copyright 2016 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Rumination, Age, and Years of Experience: A Predictive Study of Burnout

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDuffy, Moriel S.

2016-01-01

This study used a non-experimental design to examine whether job satisfaction, rumination, age and years of experience predict burnout among human service workers serving high-risk populations. The study also used a stepwise regression to assess whether job satisfaction, rumination, age, or years of experience predict burnout equally. Burnout was…

Biological age as a useful index to predict seventeen-year survival and mortality in Koreans.

PubMed

Yoo, Jinho; Kim, Yangseok; Cho, Eo Rin; Jee, Sun Ha

2017-01-05

Many studies have been conducted to quantitatively estimate biological age using measurable biomarkers. Biological age should function as a valid proxy for aging, which is closely related with future work ability, frailty, physical fitness, and/or mortality. A validation study using cohort data found biological age to be a superior index for disease-related mortality than chronological age. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the validity of biological age as a useful index to predict a person's risk of death in the future. The data consists of 13,106 cases of death from 557,940 Koreans at 20-93 years old, surveyed from 1994 to 2011. Biological ages were computed using 15 biomarkers measured in general health check-ups using an algorithm based on principal component analysis. The influence of biological age on future mortality was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression considering gender, chronological age, and event type. In the living subjects, the average biological age was almost the same as the average chronological age. In the deceased, the biological age was larger than the chronological age: largest increment of biological age over chronological age was observed when their baseline chronological age was within 50-59 years. The death rate significantly increased as biological age became larger than chronological age (linear trend test, p value < 0.0001). The largest hazard ratio was observed in subjects whose baseline chronological age was within 50-59 years when the cause was death from non-cancerous diseases (HR = 1.30, 95% confidence intervals = 1.26 - 1.34). The survival probability, over the 17 year term of the study, was significantly decreased in the people whose biological age was larger than chronological age (log rank test, p value < 0.001). Biological age could be used to predict future risk of death, and its effect size varied according to gender, chronological age, and cause of death.

Infant Sleep Predicts Attention Regulation and Behavior Problems at 3-4 Years of Age.

PubMed

Sadeh, Avi; De Marcas, Gali; Guri, Yael; Berger, Andrea; Tikotzky, Liat; Bar-Haim, Yair

2015-01-01

This longitudinal study assessed the role of early sleep patterns in predicting attention regulation and behavior problems. Sleep of 43 infants was assessed using actigraphy at 12 months of age and then reassessed when the children were 3-4 years old. During this follow-up, their attention regulation and behavior problems were also assessed using a computerized test and parental reports. Lower quality of sleep in infancy significantly predicted compromised attention regulation and behavior problems. These findings underscore the need to identify and treat early sleep problems.

Predicting age-age genetic correlations in tree-breeding programs: a case study of Pinus taeda L.

Treesearch

D.P. Gwaze; F.E. Bridgwater; T.D. Byram; J.A. Woolliams; C.G. Williams

2000-01-01

A meta-analysis of 520 parents and 51,439 individuals was used to develop two equations for predicting age-age genetic correlations in Pinus taeda L. Genetic and phenotypic family mean correlations and heritabilities were estimated for ages ranging from 2 to 25 years on 31...

Preschool Gender-Typed Play Behavior at Age 3.5 Years Predicts Physical Aggression at Age 13 Years.

PubMed

Kung, Karson T F; Li, Gu; Golding, Jean; Hines, Melissa

2018-05-01

Gender differences in play behavior and physical aggression have been consistently reported. Theoretical perspectives concerning evolutionary, social, and social-cognitive mechanisms suggest that male-typical play behavior during childhood increases subsequent physical aggression. The evidence supporting these connections is limited, however. The present study investigated the association between gender-typed play behavior in early childhood and physical aggression in early adolescence using a sample drawn from a longitudinal, population study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Based on gender-typed play behavior as measured by the Pre-School Activities Inventory at age 3.5 years, samples of masculine (64 boys, 60 girls), feminine (80 boys, 66 girls), and randomly selected control children (55 boys, 67 girls) were recruited at age 13 years and administered the Reinisch Aggression Inventory. After controlling for a range of sociodemographic variables, maternal characteristics, and behavioral problems, including hyperactivity and conduct problems at age 3.5, significant group differences in physical aggression at age 13 were found among children classified as masculine, control, and feminine at age 3.5. Masculine children exhibited significantly more physical aggression than control children or feminine children, and control children exhibited significantly more physical aggression than feminine children. The association between gender-typed play behavior and physical aggression was not moderated by sex. These results suggest that the degree of childhood gender-typed play behavior independently predicts the degree of physical aggression at adolescence in boys and in girls.

Gender and age effects on risk factor-based prediction of coronary artery calcium in symptomatic patients: A Euro-CCAD study.

PubMed

Nicoll, R; Wiklund, U; Zhao, Y; Diederichsen, A; Mickley, H; Ovrehus, K; Zamorano, J; Gueret, P; Schmermund, A; Maffei, E; Cademartiri, F; Budoff, M; Henein, M

2016-09-01

The influence of gender and age on risk factor prediction of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in symptomatic patients is unclear. From the European Calcific Coronary Artery Disease (EURO-CCAD) cohort, we retrospectively investigated 6309 symptomatic patients, 62% male, from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and USA. All of them underwent risk factor assessment and CT scanning for CAC scoring. The prevalence of CAC among females was lower than among males in all age groups. Using multivariate logistic regression, age, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, diabetes and smoking were independently predictive of CAC presence in both genders. In addition to a progressive increase in CAC with age, the most important predictors of CAC presence were dyslipidaemia and diabetes (β = 0.64 and 0.63, respectively) in males and diabetes (β = 1.08) followed by smoking (β = 0.68) in females; these same risk factors were also important in predicting increasing CAC scores. There was no difference in the predictive ability of diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia in either gender for CAC presence in patients aged <50 and 50-70 years. However, in patients aged >70, only dyslipidaemia predicted CAC presence in males and only smoking and diabetes were predictive in females. In symptomatic patients, there are significant differences in the ability of conventional risk factors to predict CAC presence between genders and between patients aged <70 and ≥70, indicating the important role of age in predicting CAC presence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consuming energy drinks at the age of 14 predicted legal and illegal substance use at 16.

PubMed

Barrense-Dias, Yara; Berchtold, André; Akre, Christina; Surís, Joan-Carles

2016-11-01

This study examined whether consuming energy drinks at the age of 14 predicted substance use at 16. We followed 621 youths from an area of Switzerland who completed a longitudinal online survey in both 2012 and 2014 when they were 14 and 16 years of age. At 14, participants, who were divided into nonenergy drink users (n = 262), occasional users (n = 183) and regular users (n = 176), reported demographic, health-related and substance use data. Substance use at 16 was assessed through logistic regression using nonusers as the reference group and controlling for significant variables at 14. At the bivariate level, energy drink consumption was associated with substance use at both 14 and 16. Energy drink consumers were also more likely to be male, older, less academic, sleep less on schooldays and live in an urban area. In the multivariate analysis, smokers, alcohol misusers and cannabis users at the age of 16 were significantly more likely to have been regular energy drink users at the age of 14. Consuming energy drinks at 14 years of age predicted using legal and illegal substances at 16. Health providers should screen young adolescents for energy drink use and closely monitor weekly users. ©2016 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predictive value of age of walking for later motor performance in children with mental retardation.

PubMed

Kokubun, M; Haishi, K; Okuzumi, H; Hosobuchi, T; Koike, T

1996-12-01

The purpose of the present study was to clarify the predictive value of age of walking for later motor performance in children with mental retardation. While paying due attention to other factors, our investigation focused on the relationship between a subject's age of walking, and his or her subsequent beam-walking performance. The subjects were 85 children with mental retardation with an average age of 13 years and 3 months. Beam-walking performance was measured by a procedure developed by the authors. Five low beams (5 cm) which varied in width (12.5, 10, 7.5, 5 and 2.5 cm) were employed. The performance of subjects was scored from zero to five points according to the width of the beam that they were able to walk without falling off. From the results of multiple regression analysis, three independent variables were found to be significantly related to beam-walking performance. The age of walking was the most basic variable: partial correlation coefficient (PCC) = -45; standardized partial regression coefficient (SPRC) = -0.41. The next variable in importance was walking duration (PCC = 0.38; SPRC = 0.31). The autism variable also contributed significantly (PCC = 0.28; SPRC = 0.22). Therefore, within the age range used in the present study, the age of walking in children with mental retardation was thought to have sufficient predictive value, even when the variables which might have possibly affected their subsequent performance were taken into consideration; the earlier the age of walking, the better the beam-walking performance.

Prediction of permanent hearing loss in high-risk preterm infants at term age.

PubMed

Valkama, A M; Laitakari, K T; Tolonen, E U; Väyrynen, M R; Vainionpää, L K; Koivisto, M E

2000-06-01

The aim of this series was to assess hearing screenings; auditory brainstem responses (ABR), transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAE) and free field auditory responses (FF) for the prediction of permanent bilateral hearing loss in high-risk preterm infants at term post-conceptional age. A total of 51 preterm infants (gestational age < 34 weeks, birth weight < 1500 g) underwent examinations at term and hearing, speech and neurological development were followed up until a corrected age of 18 months. Significant hearing defects were verified by broader ABR examinations under sedation and by clinical ward observation including responsiveness to sounds and enhancement of hearing using an amplification device. Seven bilateral fails in ABR were found, together with nine bilateral fails in TEOAE and four fails in FF screening at term age. Six preterm infants were later confirmed to have a significant permanent bilateral hearing loss, four of whom had also cerebral palsy. Bilateral failure in ABR screening predicted hearing loss with a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 98%, TEOAE with a sensitivity of 50% and a specificity of 84% and in the FF examination at the levels of 50% and 98%, respectively. Transient evoked otoacoustic emissions alone seem not to be so applicable to the neonatal screening of hearing in high-risk preterm infants as shown earlier in full-term infants, possibly because a hearing defect may be due to retrocochlear damage. Consequently, auditory brainstem response screening seems to be more suitable for very low birth weight preterm infants.

Significant interarm blood pressure difference predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients

PubMed Central

Kim, Su-A; Kim, Jang Young; Park, Jeong Bae

2016-01-01

Abstract There has been a rising interest in interarm blood pressure difference (IAD), due to its relationship with peripheral arterial disease and its possible relationship with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to characterize hypertensive patients with a significant IAD in relation to cardiovascular risk. A total of 3699 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11 years) were prospectively enrolled in the study. Blood pressure (BP) was measured simultaneously in both arms 3 times using an automated cuff-oscillometric device. IAD was defined as the absolute difference in averaged BPs between the left and right arm, and an IAD ≥ 10 mm Hg was considered to be significant. The Framingham risk score was used to calculate the 10-year cardiovascular risk. The mean systolic IAD (sIAD) was 4.3 ± 4.1 mm Hg, and 285 (7.7%) patients showed significant sIAD. Patients with significant sIAD showed larger body mass index (P < 0.001), greater systolic BP (P = 0.050), more coronary artery disease (relative risk = 1.356, P = 0.034), and more cerebrovascular disease (relative risk = 1.521, P = 0.072). The mean 10-year cardiovascular risk was 9.3 ± 7.7%. By multiple regression, sIAD was significantly but weakly correlated with the 10-year cardiovascular risk (β = 0.135, P = 0.008). Patients with significant sIAD showed a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, as well as an increase in 10-year cardiovascular risk. Therefore, accurate measurements of sIAD may serve as a simple and cost-effective tool for predicting cardiovascular risk in clinical settings. PMID:27310982

Spatial-Sequential Working Memory in Younger and Older Adults: Age Predicts Backward Recall Performance within Both Age Groups

PubMed Central

Brown, Louise A.

2016-01-01

Working memory is vulnerable to age-related decline, but there is debate regarding the age-sensitivity of different forms of spatial-sequential working memory task, depending on their passive or active nature. The functional architecture of spatial working memory was therefore explored in younger (18–40 years) and older (64–85 years) adults, using passive and active recall tasks. Spatial working memory was assessed using a modified version of the Spatial Span subtest of the Wechsler Memory Scale – Third Edition (WMS-III; Wechsler, 1998). Across both age groups, the effects of interference (control, visual, or spatial), and recall type (forward and backward), were investigated. There was a clear effect of age group, with younger adults demonstrating a larger spatial working memory capacity than the older adults overall. There was also a specific effect of interference, with the spatial interference task (spatial tapping) reliably reducing performance relative to both the control and visual interference (dynamic visual noise) conditions in both age groups and both recall types. This suggests that younger and older adults have similar dependence upon active spatial rehearsal, and that both forward and backward recall require this processing capacity. Linear regression analyses were then carried out within each age group, to assess the predictors of performance in each recall format (forward and backward). Specifically the backward recall task was significantly predicted by age, within both the younger and older adult groups. This finding supports previous literature showing lifespan linear declines in spatial-sequential working memory, and in working memory tasks from other domains, but contrasts with previous evidence that backward spatial span is no more sensitive to aging than forward span. The study suggests that backward spatial span is indeed more processing-intensive than forward span, even when both tasks include a retention period, and that age predicts

Spatial-Sequential Working Memory in Younger and Older Adults: Age Predicts Backward Recall Performance within Both Age Groups.

PubMed

Brown, Louise A

2016-01-01

Working memory is vulnerable to age-related decline, but there is debate regarding the age-sensitivity of different forms of spatial-sequential working memory task, depending on their passive or active nature. The functional architecture of spatial working memory was therefore explored in younger (18-40 years) and older (64-85 years) adults, using passive and active recall tasks. Spatial working memory was assessed using a modified version of the Spatial Span subtest of the Wechsler Memory Scale - Third Edition (WMS-III; Wechsler, 1998). Across both age groups, the effects of interference (control, visual, or spatial), and recall type (forward and backward), were investigated. There was a clear effect of age group, with younger adults demonstrating a larger spatial working memory capacity than the older adults overall. There was also a specific effect of interference, with the spatial interference task (spatial tapping) reliably reducing performance relative to both the control and visual interference (dynamic visual noise) conditions in both age groups and both recall types. This suggests that younger and older adults have similar dependence upon active spatial rehearsal, and that both forward and backward recall require this processing capacity. Linear regression analyses were then carried out within each age group, to assess the predictors of performance in each recall format (forward and backward). Specifically the backward recall task was significantly predicted by age, within both the younger and older adult groups. This finding supports previous literature showing lifespan linear declines in spatial-sequential working memory, and in working memory tasks from other domains, but contrasts with previous evidence that backward spatial span is no more sensitive to aging than forward span. The study suggests that backward spatial span is indeed more processing-intensive than forward span, even when both tasks include a retention period, and that age predicts

Predictive Demi-Span Equations for Estimation of Stature in Aged Mexican Americans.

PubMed

Siordia, C; Panas, L J; Markides, K

2012-01-01

To develop demi-span height predictive equations for older Mexican Americans. Cross-sectional study. Data files housed by the Sociomedical Division in the department of Community Health and Preventive Medicine at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, Texas. 1,078 (700 females, 378 males) Southwest U.S.A. community-dwelling older Mexican Americans, aged 80-102 years. Demi-span, height, weight, BMI, demi-span equivalent height (DSEH), DSEH derived BMI (DS-BMI). Bland and Altman agreement analysis on: height and DSEH; BMI and DS-BMI. Paired t-test comparing derived and actual measures by single-age units and sex. DSEH with Bassey equations (DSEHBassey) are significantly different than actual measures. DSEHBassey derived BMIs (DSBasseyBMIs) are significantly different than BMIs computed from actual measures. DSEH with Mexican equations (DSEHMexican) are not significantly different than real measures. DSEHMexican derived BMIs (DSMexicanBMIs) are not significantly different than real measures. These findings provide evidence that both DSEHBassey and DSBasseyBMIs estimates are significantly different from measured height and BMI. Both DSEHMexican and DSMexicanBMIs estimates are shown to produce similar height and BMI estimates to those obtained from real measures. .

Evaluation of non-negative matrix factorization of grey matter in age prediction.

PubMed

Varikuti, Deepthi P; Genon, Sarah; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Schwender, Holger; Hoffstaedter, Felix; Patil, Kaustubh R; Jockwitz, Christiane; Caspers, Svenja; Moebus, Susanne; Amunts, Katrin; Davatzikos, Christos; Eickhoff, Simon B

2018-06-01

The relationship between grey matter volume (GMV) patterns and age can be captured by multivariate pattern analysis, allowing prediction of individuals' age based on structural imaging. Raw data, voxel-wise GMV and non-sparse factorization (with Principal Component Analysis, PCA) show good performance but do not promote relatively localized brain components for post-hoc examinations. Here we evaluated a non-negative matrix factorization (NNMF) approach to provide a reduced, but also interpretable representation of GMV data in age prediction frameworks in healthy and clinical populations. This examination was performed using three datasets: a multi-site cohort of life-span healthy adults, a single site cohort of older adults and clinical samples from the ADNI dataset with healthy subjects, participants with Mild Cognitive Impairment and patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) subsamples. T1-weighted images were preprocessed with VBM8 standard settings to compute GMV values after normalization, segmentation and modulation for non-linear transformations only. Non-negative matrix factorization was computed on the GM voxel-wise values for a range of granularities (50-690 components) and LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) regression were used for age prediction. First, we compared the performance of our data compression procedure (i.e., NNMF) to various other approaches (i.e., uncompressed VBM data, PCA-based factorization and parcellation-based compression). We then investigated the impact of the granularity on the accuracy of age prediction, as well as the transferability of the factorization and model generalization across datasets. We finally validated our framework by examining age prediction in ADNI samples. Our results showed that our framework favorably compares with other approaches. They also demonstrated that the NNMF based factorization derived from one dataset could be efficiently applied to compress VBM data of another dataset and that

External prognostic validations and comparisons of age- and gender-adjusted exercise capacity predictions.

PubMed

Kim, Esther S H; Ishwaran, Hemant; Blackstone, Eugene; Lauer, Michael S

2007-11-06

The purpose of this study was to externally validate the prognostic value of age- and gender-based nomograms and categorical definitions of impaired exercise capacity (EC). Exercise capacity predicts death, but its use in routine clinical practice is hampered by its close correlation with age and gender. For a median of 5 years, we followed 22,275 patients without known heart disease who underwent symptom-limited stress testing. Models for predicted or impaired EC were identified by literature search. Gender-specific multivariable proportional hazards models were constructed. Four methods were used to assess validity: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), right-censored c-index in 100 out-of-bootstrap samples, the Nagelkerke Index R2, and calculation of calibration error in 100 bootstrap samples. There were 646 and 430 deaths in 13,098 men and 9,177 women, respectively. Of the 7 models tested in men, a model based on a Veterans Affairs cohort (predicted metabolic equivalents [METs] = 18 - [0.15 x age]) had the highest AIC and R2. In women, a model based on the St. James Take Heart Project (predicted METs = 14.7 - [0.13 x age]) performed best. Categorical definitions of fitness performed less well. Even after accounting for age and gender, there was still an important interaction with age, whereby predicted EC was a weaker predictor in older subjects (p for interaction <0.001 in men and 0.003 in women). Several methods describe EC accounting for age and gender-related differences, but their ability to predict mortality differ. Simple cutoff values fail to fully describe EC's strong predictive value.

Predicting motor outcome at preschool age for infants tested at 7, 30, 60, and 90 days after term age using the Test of Infant Motor Performance.

PubMed

Kolobe, Thubi H A; Bulanda, Michelle; Susman, Louisa

2004-12-01

Accurate and diagnostic measures are central to early identification and intervention with infants who are at risk for developmental delays or disabilities. The purpose of this study was to examine (1) the ability of infants' Test of Infant Motor Performance (TIMP) scores at 7, 30, 60 and 90 days after term age to predict motor development at preschool age and (2) the contribution of the home environment and medical risk to the prediction. Sixty-one children from an original cohort of 90 infants who were assessed weekly with the TIMP, between 34 weeks gestational age and 4 months after term age, participated in this follow-up study. The Peabody Developmental Motor Scales, 2nd edition (PDMS-2), were administered to the children at the mean age of 57 months (SD=4.8 months). The quality and quantity of the home environment also were assessed at this age using the Early Childhood Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment (EC-HOME). Pearson product moment correlation coefficients, multiple regression, sensitivity and specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were used to assess the relationship among the TIMP, HOME, medical risk, and PDMS-2 scores. The correlation coefficients between the TIMP and PDMS-2 scores were statistically significant for all ages except at 7 days. The highest correlation coefficient was at 90 days (r=.69, P=.001). The TIMP scores at 30, 60, and 90 days after term; medical risk scores; and EC-HOME scores explained 24%, 23%, and 52% of the variance in the PDMS-2 scores, respectively. The TIMP score at 90 days after term was the most significant contributor to the prediction. The TIMP cutoff score of -0.5 standard deviation below the mean correctly classified 80%, 79%, and 87% of the children using a cutoff score of -2 standard deviations on the PDMS-2 at 30, 60, and 90 days, respectively. The results compare favorably with those of developmental tests administered to infants at 6 months of age or older. These findings

Field Validation of a Transcriptional Assay for the Prediction of Age of Uncaged Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes in Northern Australia

PubMed Central

Hugo, Leon E.; Cook, Peter E.; Johnson, Petrina H.; Rapley, Luke P.; Kay, Brian H.; Ryan, Peter A.; Ritchie, Scott A.; O'Neill, Scott L.

2010-01-01

Background New strategies to eliminate dengue have been proposed that specifically target older Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, the proportion of the vector population that is potentially capable of transmitting dengue viruses. Evaluation of these strategies will require accurate and high-throughput methods of predicting mosquito age. We previously developed an age prediction assay for individual Ae. aegypti females based on the transcriptional profiles of a selection of age responsive genes. Here we conducted field testing of the method on Ae. aegypti that were entirely uncaged and free to engage in natural behavior. Methodology/Principal Findings We produced “free-range” test specimens by releasing 8007 adult Ae. aegypti inside and around an isolated homestead in north Queensland, Australia, and recapturing females at two day intervals. We applied a TaqMan probe-based assay design that enabled high-throughput quantitative RT-PCR of four transcripts from three age-responsive genes and a reference gene. An age prediction model was calibrated on mosquitoes maintained in small sentinel cages, in which 68.8% of the variance in gene transcription measures was explained by age. The model was then used to predict the ages of the free-range females. The relationship between the predicted and actual ages achieved an R2 value of 0.62 for predictions of females up to 29 days old. Transcriptional profiles and age predictions were not affected by physiological variation associated with the blood feeding/egg development cycle and we show that the age grading method could be applied to differentiate between two populations of mosquitoes having a two-fold difference in mean life expectancy. Conclusions/Significance The transcriptional profiles of age responsive genes facilitated age estimates of near-wild Ae. aegypti females. Our age prediction assay for Ae. aegypti provides a useful tool for the evaluation of mosquito control interventions against dengue where mosquito

Prediction of the age at onset in spinocerebellar ataxia type 1, 2, 3 and 6

PubMed Central

Tezenas du Montcel, Sophie; Durr, Alexandra; Rakowicz, Maria; Nanetti, Lorenzo; Charles, Perrine; Sulek, Anna; Mariotti, Caterina; Rola, Rafal; Schols, Ludger; Bauer, Peter; Dufaure-Garé, Isabelle; Jacobi, Heike; Forlani, Sylvie; Schmitz-Hübsch, Tanja; Filla, Alessandro; Timmann, Dagmar; van de Warrenburg, Bart P; Marelli, Cecila; Kang, Jun-Suk; Giunti, Paola; Cook, Arron; Baliko, Laszlo; Bela, Melegh; Boesch, Sylvia; Szymanski, Sandra; Berciano, José; Infante, Jon; Buerk, Katrin; Masciullo, Marcella; Di Fabio, Roberto; Depondt, Chantal; Ratka, Susanne; Stevanin, Giovanni; Klockgether, Thomas; Brice, Alexis; Golmard, Jean-Louis

2014-01-01

Background The most common spinocerebellar ataxias (SCA)—SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, and SCA6—are caused by (CAG)n repeat expansion. While the number of repeats of the coding (CAG)n expansions is correlated with the age at onset, there are no appropriate models that include both affected and preclinical carriers allowing for the prediction of age at onset. Methods We combined data from two major European cohorts of SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, and SCA6 mutation carriers: 1187 affected individuals from the EUROSCA registry and 123 preclinical individuals from the RISCA cohort. For each SCA genotype, a regression model was fitted using a log-normal distribution for age at onset with the repeat length of the alleles as covariates. From these models, we calculated expected age at onset from birth and conditionally that this age is greater than the current age. Results For SCA2 and SCA3 genotypes, the expanded allele was a significant predictor of age at onset (−0.105±0.005 and −0.056±0.003) while for SCA1 and SCA6 genotypes both the size of the expanded and normal alleles were significant (expanded: −0.049±0.002 and −0.090±0.009, respectively; normal: +0.013±0.005 and −0.029±0.010, respectively). According to the model, we indicated the median values (90% critical region) and the expectancy (SD) of the predicted age at onset for each SCA genotype according to the CAG repeat size and current age. Conclusions These estimations can be valuable in clinical and research. However, results need to be confirmed in other independent cohorts and in future longitudinal studies. ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01037777 and NCT00136630 for the French patients. PMID:24780882

Does the Aging Process Significantly Modify the Mean Heart Rate?

PubMed Central

Santos, Marcos Antonio Almeida; Sousa, Antonio Carlos Sobral; Reis, Francisco Prado; Santos, Thayná Ramos; Lima, Sonia Oliveira; Barreto-Filho, José Augusto

2013-01-01

Background The Mean Heart Rate (MHR) tends to decrease with age. When adjusted for gender and diseases, the magnitude of this effect is unclear. Objective To analyze the MHR in a stratified sample of active and functionally independent individuals. Methods A total of 1,172 patients aged ≥ 40 years underwent Holter monitoring and were stratified by age group: 1 = 40-49, 2 = 50-59, 3 = 60-69, 4 = 70-79, 5 = ≥ 80 years. The MHR was evaluated according to age and gender, adjusted for Hypertension (SAH), dyslipidemia and non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). Several models of ANOVA, correlation and linear regression were employed. A two-tailed p value <0.05 was considered significant (95% CI). Results The MHR tended to decrease with the age range: 1 = 77.20 ± 7.10; 2 = 76.66 ± 7.07; 3 = 74.02 ± 7.46; 4 = 72.93 ± 7.35; 5 = 73.41 ± 7.98 (p < 0.001). Women showed a correlation with higher MHR (p <0.001). In the ANOVA and regression models, age and gender were predictors (p < 0.001). However, R2 and ETA2 < 0.10, as well as discrete standardized beta coefficients indicated reduced effect. Dyslipidemia, hypertension and DM did not influence the findings. Conclusion The MHR decreased with age. Women had higher values of MHR, regardless of the age group. Correlations between MHR and age or gender, albeit significant, showed the effect magnitude had little statistical relevance. The prevalence of SAH, dyslipidemia and diabetes mellitus did not influence the results. PMID:24029962

Interaction between age and race alters predicted survival in colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Phatak, Uma R; Kao, Lillian S; Millas, Stefanos G; Wiatrek, Rebecca L; Ko, Tien C; Wray, Curtis J

2013-10-01

Racial disparities in colorectal cancer persist. Late stage at presentation and lack of stage-specific treatment may be contributing factors. We sought to evaluate the magnitude of disparity remaining after accounting for gender, stage, and treatment using predicted survival models. We used institutional tumor registries from a public health system (two hospitals) and a not-for-profit health system (nine hospitals) from 1995 to 2011. Demographics, stage at diagnosis, treatment, and survival were recorded. Hazard ratios (HRs) and predicted HRs were determined by Cox regression and postestimation analyses. There were 6,990 patients: 55.7 % white, 23.6 % African American, 15.1 % Hispanic, and 5.6 % Asian/other. Predictors of survival were surgery (HR 0.57, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.46-0.70), chemotherapy (HR 0.7, 95 % CI 0.62-0.79), female gender (HR 0.87, 95 % CI 0.83-0.90), age (HR 1.04, 95 % CI 1.03-1.05), and African American race (HR 3.6, 95 % CI 1.5-8.4). Balancing for stage, gender, and treatment reduced the predicted HRs for African Americans by 28 % and Hispanics by 17 %. In this model, African American and Hispanics still had the worst predicted HRs at younger ages, but whites had the worst predicted HR after age 75. Gender, stage, and treatment partially accounted for worsened survival in African Americans and Hispanics at all ages. At younger ages, race-related disparities remained which may reflect tumor biology or other unknown factors. Once gender, stage, and treatment are balanced at older ages, the increased mortality observed in whites may be due to factors such as comorbidities. Further system- and patient-level study is needed to investigate reasons for colorectal cancer survival disparities.

Can we predict age at natural menopause using ovarian reserve tests or mother's age at menopause? A systematic literature review.

PubMed

Depmann, Martine; Broer, Simone L; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Tehrani, Fahimeh R; Eijkemans, Marinus J; Mol, Ben W; Broekmans, Frank J

2016-02-01

This review aimed to appraise data on prediction of age at natural menopause (ANM) based on antimüllerian hormone (AMH), antral follicle count (AFC), and mother's ANM to evaluate clinical usefulness and to identify directions for further research. We conducted three systematic reviews of the literature to identify studies of menopause prediction based on AMH, AFC, or mother's ANM, corrected for baseline age. Six studies selected in the search for AMH all consistently demonstrated AMH as being capable of predicting ANM (hazard ratio, 5.6-9.2). The sole study reporting on mother's ANM indicated that AMH was capable of predicting ANM (hazard ratio, 9.1-9.3). Two studies provided analyses of AFC and yielded conflicting results, making this marker less strong. AMH is currently the most promising marker for ANM prediction. The predictive capacity of mother's ANM demonstrated in a single study makes this marker a promising contributor to AMH for menopause prediction. Models, however, do not predict the extremes of menopause age very well and have wide prediction interval. These markers clearly need improvement before they can be used for individual prediction of menopause in the clinical setting. Moreover, potential limitations for such use include variations in AMH assays used and a lack of correction for factors or diseases affecting AMH levels or ANM. Future studies should include women of a broad age range (irrespective of cycle regularity) and should base predictions on repeated AMH measurements. Furthermore, currently unknown candidate predictors need to be identified.

PREDICTIVE ACCURACY OF TRANSCEREBELLAR DIAMETER IN COMPARISON WITH OTHER FOETAL BIOMETRIC PARAMETERS FOR GESTATIONAL AGE ESTIMATION AMONG PREGNANT NIGERIAN WOMEN.

PubMed

Adeyekun, A A; Orji, M O

2014-04-01

To compare the predictive accuracy of foetal trans-cerebellar diameter (TCD) with those of other biometric parameters in the estimation of gestational age (GA). A cross-sectional study. The University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Nigeria. Four hundred and fifty healthy singleton pregnant women, between 14-42 weeks gestation. Trans-cerebellar diameter (TCD), biparietal diameter (BPD), femur length (FL), abdominal circumference (AC) values across the gestational age range studied. Correlation and predictive values of TCD compared to those of other biometric parameters. The range of values for TCD was 11.9 - 59.7mm (mean = 34.2 ± 14.1mm). TCD correlated more significantly with menstrual age compared with other biometric parameters (r = 0.984, p = 0.000). TCD had a higher predictive accuracy of 96.9% ± 12 days), BPD (93.8% ± 14.1 days). AC (92.7% ± 15.3 days). TCD has a stronger predictive accuracy for gestational age compared to other routinely used foetal biometric parameters among Nigerian Africans.

Examination of DNA methylation status of the ELOVL2 marker may be useful for human age prediction in forensic science.

PubMed

Zbieć-Piekarska, Renata; Spólnicka, Magdalena; Kupiec, Tomasz; Makowska, Żanetta; Spas, Anna; Parys-Proszek, Agnieszka; Kucharczyk, Krzysztof; Płoski, Rafał; Branicki, Wojciech

2015-01-01

Age estimation in forensic investigations may complement the prediction of externally visible characteristics and the inference of biogeographical ancestry, thus allowing a better description of an unknown individual. Multiple CpG sites that show linear correlation between age and degree of DNA methylation have been identified in the human genome, providing a selection of candidates for age prediction. In this study, we optimized an assay based on bisulfite conversion and pyrosequencing of 7 CpG sites located in the ELOVL2 gene. Examination of 303 blood samples collected from individuals aged 2-75 years allowed selection of the most informative site, explaining 83% of variation in age. The final linear regression model included two CpG sites in ELOVL2 and enabled age prediction with R(2)=0.859, prediction error=6.85 and mean absolute deviation MAD=5.03. Examination of a testing set of 124 blood samples (MAD=5.75) showed that 68.5% of samples were correctly predicted, assuming that chronological and predicted ages matched ± 7 years. It was found that the ELOVL2 methylation status in bloodstains had not changed significantly after 4 weeks of storage in room temperature conditions. Analysis of 45 bloodstains deposited on tissue paper after 5, 10 and 15 years of storage in room conditions indicated that although a gradual decrease of positive PCR results was observed, the general age prediction success rate remained similar and equaled 60-78%. The obtained results show that the ELOVL2 locus provides a very good source of information about human chronological age based on analysis of blood, including bloodstains, and it may constitute a powerful and reliable predictor in future forensic age estimation models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age and total and free prostate-specific antigen levels for predicting prostate volume in patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia.

PubMed

Coban, Soner; Doluoglu, Omer Gokhan; Keles, Ibrahim; Demirci, Hakan; Turkoglu, Ali Riza; Guzelsoy, Muhammet; Karalar, Mustafa; Demirbas, Murat

2016-06-01

To investigate the predictive values of free prostate-specific antigen (fPSA), total PSA (tPSA) and age on the prostate volume. The data of 2148 patients with lower urinary tract symptoms were analyzed retrospectively. The patients who had transrectal ultrasonography guided 10 core biopsies owing to the findings obtained on digital rectal examination and presence of high PSA levels (PSA = 2.5-10 ng/dl), and proven to have BPH histopathologically were included in the study. Age, tPSA, fPSA and the prostate volumes (PV) of the patients were noted. One thousand patients that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in the study. The PV of the patients were significantly correlated with age, tPSA and fPSA (p < 0.001 and r = 0.307, p < 0.001 and r = 0.382, p < 0.001 and r = 0.296, respectively). On linear regression model, fPSA was found as a stronger predictive for PV (AUC = 0.75, p < 0.001) when compared to age (AUC = 0.64, p < 0.001), and tPSA (AUC = 0.69, p = 0.013). Although tPSA is an important prognostic factor for predicting PV, the predictive value of fPSA is higher. PV can easily be predicted by using age, and serum tPSA and fPSA levels.

Serum Procalcitonin for Predicting Significant Infections and Mortality in Pediatric Oncology.

PubMed

Gunasekaran, Vinod; Radhakrishnan, Nita; Dinand, Veronique; Sachdeva, Anupam

2016-12-15

To evaluate the role of serum procalcitonin (PCT) level at admission in predicting significant infections and deaths among children on chemotherapy presenting with fever. Children with clinically significant (CSI) and microbiologically documented (MDI) infections were identified using standard definitions. Association of PCT with CSI, MDI and mortality was analyzed. We evaluated 821 febrile episodes in 316 children. CSI, MDI and deaths were seen in 40.9%, 20.1% and 2.9%, respectively. PCT levels ranged from 0.05-560ng/mL. Median PCT was higher in episodes with CSI (0.80 vs. 0.28) and MDI (0.71 vs. 0.34) (P<0.001). PCT ≥0.7ng/mL optimally predicted CSI (AUC-0.740) and MDI (AUC-0.636). Relative risk of mortality for PCT ≥5ng/mL was 7.1. PCT ≥0.7ng/mL had poor sensitivity (45-55%) but good specificity and NPV (70-90%). PCT was elevated in nearly half of documented viral and fungal infections. PCT predicts significant infections and mortality in pediatric oncology but it has poor sensitivity to guide clinical decisions.

A SIMPLE FRAILTY QUESTIONNAIRE (FRAIL) PREDICTS OUTCOMES IN MIDDLE AGED AFRICAN AMERICANS

PubMed Central

MORLEY, J.E.; MALMSTROM, T.K.; MILLER, D.K.

2015-01-01

Objective To validate the FRAIL scale. Design Longitudinal study. Setting Community. Participants Representative sample of African Americans age 49 to 65 years at onset of study. Measurements The 5-item FRAIL scale (Fatigue, Resistance, Ambulation, Illnesses, & Loss of Weight), at baseline and activities of daily living (ADLs), instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), mortality, short physical performance battery (SPPB), gait speed, one-leg stand, grip strength and injurious falls at baseline and 9 years. Blood tests for CRP, SIL6R, STNFR1, STNFR2 and 25 (OH) vitamin D at baseline. Results Cross-sectionally the FRAIL scale correlated significantly with IADL difficulties, SPPB, grip strength and one-leg stand among participants with no baseline ADL difficulties (N=703) and those outcomes plus gait speed in those with no baseline ADL dependencies (N=883). TNFR1 was increased in pre-frail and frail subjects and CRP in some subgroups. Longitudinally (N=423 with no baseline ADL difficulties or N=528 with no baseline ADL dependencies), and adjusted for the baseline value for each outcome, being pre-frail at baseline significantly predicted future ADL difficulties, worse one-leg stand scores, and mortality in both groups, plus IADL difficulties in the dependence-excluded group. Being frail at baseline significantly predicted future ADL difficulties, IADL difficulties, and mortality in both groups, plus worse SPPB in the dependence-excluded group. Conclusion This study has validated the FRAIL scale in a late middle-aged African American population. This simple 5-question scale is an excellent screening test for clinicians to identify frail persons at risk of developing disability as well as decline in health functioning and mortality. PMID:22836700

Interactions of age and cognitive functions in predicting decision making under risky conditions over the life span.

PubMed

Brand, Matthias; Schiebener, Johannes

2013-01-01

Little is known about how normal healthy aging affects decision-making competence. In this study 538 participants (age 18-80 years) performed the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Subsamples also performed the Iowa Gambling Task as well as tasks measuring logical thinking and executive functions. In a moderated regression analysis, the significant interaction between age and executive components indicates that older participants with good executive functioning perform well on the GDT, while older participants with reduced executive functions make more risky choices. The same pattern emerges for the interaction of age and logical thinking. Results demonstrate that age and cognitive functions act in concert in predicting the decision-making performance.

Predicting dyslexia at age 11 from a risk index questionnaire at age 5.

PubMed

Helland, Turid; Plante, Elena; Hugdahl, Kenneth

2011-08-01

This study focused on predicting dyslexia in children ahead of formal literacy training. Because dyslexia is a constitutional impairment, risk factors should be seen in preschool. It was hypothesized that data gathered at age 5 using questions targeting the dyslexia endophenotype should be reliable and valid predictors of dyslexia at age 11. A questionnaire was given to caretakers of 120 5-year-old children, and a risk index score was calculated based on questions regarding health, laterality, motor skills, language, special needs education and heredity. An at-risk group (n = 25) and matched controls (n = 24) were followed until age 11, when a similar questionnaire and literacy tests were administered to the children who participated in the follow-up study (22 at risk and 20 control). Half of the at-risk children and two of the control children at age 5 were identified as having dyslexia at age 11 (8 girls and 5 boys). It is concluded that it is possible to identify children at the age of 5 who will have dyslexia at the age of 11 through a questionnaire approach. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Visceral adiposity predicts subclinical white matter hyperintensities in middle-aged adults.

PubMed

Pasha, Evan P; Birdsill, Alex; Parker, Paige; Elmenshawy, Ahmed; Tanaka, Hirofumi; Haley, Andreana P

Growing prevalence of neuropathology and cognitive impairment are emerging consequences of the obesity epidemic. Adiposity indices used in examining the relationships between obesity, neuropathology, and cognition vary substantially in the literature leading to incongruent findings. Our aim was to determine the anthropometric measures most strongly associated with early white matter disease and cognitive function at midlife. Multiple adiposity indices were measured in 126 adults aged 40-62 who also completed a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan to quantify white matter disease and a cognitive test battery. Anthropometric indices of obesity were compared to image-based estimates of visceral adipose tissue with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) as predictors of current white matter disease and cognitive function. We also explored sex as a potential moderator of these relationships. Waist circumference (WC) was most strongly correlated with DEXA estimates of visceral adipose tissue (r=0.871, p<0.001). Increasing WC (β=0.231, p=0.034), percent body fat (β=0.230, p=0.045), and VAT (β=0.247, p=0.027) significantly predicted subclinical white matter hyperintensities in the absence of cognitive impairment after accounting for age, sex, years of education, and cardiovascular risk factors. Sex was not a significant moderator of any of the observed relationships. Of the anthropometric indices used in this study, WC, BF, and VAT successfully predicted subclinical white matter disease in cognitively normal adults at midlife. Increasing VAT may independently insidiously affect cerebral white matter prior to detectable cognitive changes, necessitating early intervention. Copyright © 2016 Asia Oceania Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

1999-01-01

Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

Analysis of significant factors for dengue fever incidence prediction.

PubMed

Siriyasatien, Padet; Phumee, Atchara; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Jampachaisri, Katechan; Kesorn, Kraisak

2016-04-16

Many popular dengue forecasting techniques have been used by several researchers to extrapolate dengue incidence rates, including the K-H model, support vector machines (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The time series analysis methodology, particularly ARIMA and SARIMA, has been increasingly applied to the field of epidemiological research for dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and other infectious diseases. The main drawback of these methods is that they do not consider other variables that are associated with the dependent variable. Additionally, new factors correlated to the disease are needed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the model when it is applied to areas of similar climates, where weather factors such as temperature, total rainfall, and humidity are not substantially different. Such drawbacks may consequently lower the predictive power for the outbreak. The predictive power of the forecasting model-assessed by Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)-is improved by including the new parameters for dengue outbreak prediction. This study's selected model outperforms all three other competing models with the lowest AIC, the lowest BIC, and a small MAPE value. The exclusive use of climate factors from similar locations decreases a model's prediction power. The multivariate Poisson regression, however, effectively forecasts even when climate variables are slightly different. Female mosquitoes and seasons were strongly correlated with dengue cases. Therefore, the dengue incidence trends provided by this model will assist the optimization of dengue prevention. The present work demonstrates the important roles of female mosquito infection rates from the previous season and climate factors (represented as seasons) in dengue outbreaks. Incorporating these two factors in the model significantly improves the predictive power of dengue hemorrhagic fever forecasting

Age and motivation predict gaze behavior for facial expressions.

PubMed

Nikitin, Jana; Freund, Alexandra M

2011-09-01

This study investigated age-related differences between younger (M = 25.52 years) and older (M = 70.51 years) adults in avoidance motivation and the influence of avoidance motivation on gaze preferences for happy, neutral, and angry faces. In line with the hypothesis of reduced negativity effect later in life, older adults avoided angry faces and (to a lesser degree) preferred happy faces more than younger adults did. This effect cannot be explained by age-related changes in dispositional motivation. Irrespective of age, avoidance motivation predicted gaze behavior towards emotional faces. The study demonstrates the importance of interindividual differences beyond young adulthood.

Frailty Index Predicts All-Cause Mortality for Middle-Aged and Older Taiwanese: Implications for Active-Aging Programs.

PubMed

Lin, Shu-Yu; Lee, Wei-Ju; Chou, Ming-Yueh; Peng, Li-Ning; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Liang-Kung

2016-01-01

Frailty Index, defined as an individual's accumulated proportion of listed health-related deficits, is a well-established metric used to assess the health status of old adults; however, it has not yet been developed in Taiwan, and its local related structure factors remain unclear. The objectives were to construct a Taiwan Frailty Index to predict mortality risk, and to explore the structure of its factors. Analytic data on 1,284 participants aged 53 and older were excerpted from the Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study (2006), in Taiwan. A consensus workgroup of geriatricians selected 159 items according to the standard procedure for creating a Frailty Index. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to explore the association between the Taiwan Frailty Index and mortality. Exploratory factor analysis was used to identify structure factors and produce a shorter version-the Taiwan Frailty Index Short-Form. During an average follow-up of 4.3 ± 0.8 years, 140 (11%) subjects died. Compared to those in the lowest Taiwan Frailty Index tertile (< 0.18), those in the uppermost tertile (> 0.23) had significantly higher risk of death (Hazard ratio: 3.2; 95% CI 1.9-5.4). Thirty-five items of five structure factors identified by exploratory factor analysis, included: physical activities, life satisfaction and financial status, health status, cognitive function, and stresses. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (C-statistics) of the Taiwan Frailty Index and its Short-Form were 0.80 and 0.78, respectively, with no statistically significant difference between them. Although both the Taiwan Frailty Index and Short-Form were associated with mortality, the Short-Form, which had similar accuracy in predicting mortality as the full Taiwan Frailty Index, would be more expedient in clinical practice and community settings to target frailty screening and intervention.

Clinical history and biologic age predicted falls better than objective functional tests.

PubMed

Gerdhem, Paul; Ringsberg, Karin A M; Akesson, Kristina; Obrant, Karl J

2005-03-01

Fall risk assessment is important because the consequences, such as a fracture, may be devastating. The objective of this study was to find the test or tests that best predicted falls in a population-based sample of elderly women. The fall-predictive ability of a questionnaire, a subjective estimate of biologic age and objective functional tests (gait, balance [Romberg and sway test], thigh muscle strength, and visual acuity) were compared in 984 randomly selected women, all 75 years of age. A recalled fall was the most important predictor for future falls. Only recalled falls and intake of psycho-active drugs independently predicted future falls. Women with at least five of the most important fall predictors (previous falls, conditions affecting the balance, tendency to fall, intake of psychoactive medication, inability to stand on one leg, high biologic age) had an odds ratio of 11.27 (95% confidence interval 4.61-27.60) for a fall (sensitivity 70%, specificity 79%). The more time-consuming objective functional tests were of limited importance for fall prediction. A simple clinical history, the inability to stand on one leg, and a subjective estimate of biologic age were more important as part of the fall risk assessment.

Age- and sex-dependent regression models for predicting the live weight of West African Dwarf goat from body measurements.

PubMed

Sowande, O S; Oyewale, B F; Iyasere, O S

2010-06-01

The relationships between live weight and eight body measurements of West African Dwarf (WAD) goats were studied using 211 animals under farm condition. The animals were categorized based on age and sex. Data obtained on height at withers (HW), heart girth (HG), body length (BL), head length (HL), and length of hindquarter (LHQ) were fitted into simple linear, allometric, and multiple-regression models to predict live weight from the body measurements according to age group and sex. Results showed that live weight, HG, BL, LHQ, HL, and HW increased with the age of the animals. In multiple-regression model, HG and HL best fit the model for goat kids; HG, HW, and HL for goat aged 13-24 months; while HG, LHQ, HW, and HL best fit the model for goats aged 25-36 months. Coefficients of determination (R(2)) values for linear and allometric models for predicting the live weight of WAD goat increased with age in all the body measurements, with HG being the most satisfactory single measurement in predicting the live weight of WAD goat. Sex had significant influence on the model with R(2) values consistently higher in females except the models for LHQ and HW.

A model combining age, equivalent uniform dose and IL-8 may predict radiation esophagitis in patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Wang, Shulian; Campbell, Jeff; Stenmark, Matthew H; Stanton, Paul; Zhao, Jing; Matuszak, Martha M; Ten Haken, Randall K; Kong, Feng-Ming

2018-03-01

To study whether cytokine markers may improve predictive accuracy of radiation esophagitis (RE) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. A total of 129 patients with stage I-III NSCLC treated with radiotherapy (RT) from prospective studies were included. Thirty inflammatory cytokines were measured in platelet-poor plasma samples. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the risk factors of RE. Stepwise Akaike information criterion (AIC) and likelihood ratio test were used to assess model predictions. Forty-nine of 129 patients (38.0%) developed grade ≥2 RE. Univariate analysis showed that age, stage, concurrent chemotherapy, and eight dosimetric parameters were significantly associated with grade ≥2 RE (p < 0.05). IL-4, IL-5, IL-8, IL-13, IL-15, IL-1α, TGFα and eotaxin were also associated with grade ≥2 RE (p < 0.1). Age, esophagus generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD), and baseline IL-8 were independently associated grade ≥2 RE. The combination of these three factors had significantly higher predictive power than any single factor alone. Addition of IL-8 to toxicity model significantly improves RE predictive accuracy (p = 0.019). Combining baseline level of IL-8, age and esophagus EUD may predict RE more accurately. Refinement of this model with larger sample sizes and validation from multicenter database are warranted. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heritability of and mortality prediction with a longevity phenotype: the healthy aging index.

PubMed

Sanders, Jason L; Minster, Ryan L; Barmada, M Michael; Matteini, Amy M; Boudreau, Robert M; Christensen, Kaare; Mayeux, Richard; Borecki, Ingrid B; Zhang, Qunyuan; Perls, Thomas; Newman, Anne B

2014-04-01

Longevity-associated genes may modulate risk for age-related diseases and survival. The Healthy Aging Index (HAI) may be a subphenotype of longevity, which can be constructed in many studies for genetic analysis. We investigated the HAI's association with survival in the Cardiovascular Health Study and heritability in the Long Life Family Study. The HAI includes systolic blood pressure, pulmonary vital capacity, creatinine, fasting glucose, and Modified Mini-Mental Status Examination score, each scored 0, 1, or 2 using approximate tertiles and summed from 0 (healthy) to 10 (unhealthy). In Cardiovascular Health Study, the association with mortality and accuracy predicting death were determined with Cox proportional hazards analysis and c-statistics, respectively. In Long Life Family Study, heritability was determined with a variance component-based family analysis using a polygenic model. Cardiovascular Health Study participants with unhealthier index scores (7-10) had 2.62-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.22, 3.10) greater mortality than participants with healthier scores (0-2). The HAI alone predicted death moderately well (c-statistic = 0.643, 95% confidence interval: 0.626, 0.661, p < .0001) and slightly worse than age alone (c-statistic = 0.700, 95% confidence interval: 0.684, 0.717, p < .0001; p < .0001 for comparison of c-statistics). Prediction increased significantly with adjustment for demographics, health behaviors, and clinical comorbidities (c-statistic = 0.780, 95% confidence interval: 0.765, 0.794, p < .0001). In Long Life Family Study, the heritability of the HAI was 0.295 (p < .0001) overall, 0.387 (p < .0001) in probands, and 0.238 (p = .0004) in offspring. The HAI should be investigated further as a candidate phenotype for uncovering longevity-associated genes in humans.

Age differences in recall and predicting recall of action events and words.

PubMed

McDonald-Miszczak, L; Hubley, A M; Hultsch, D F

1996-03-01

Age differences in recall and prediction of recall were examined with different memory tasks. We asked 36 younger (19-28 yrs) and 36 older (60-81 yrs) women to provide both global and item-by-item predictions of their recall, and then to recall either (a) Subject Performance Tasks (SPTs), (b) verb-noun word-pairs memorized in list-like fashion (Word-Pairs), or (c) nonsense verb-noun word-pairs (Nonsense-Pairs) over three experimental trials. Based on previous research, we hypothesized that these tasks would vary in relative difficulty and flexibility of encoding. The results indicated that (a) age differences in global predictions (task specific self-efficacy) and recall performance across trials were minimized with SPT as compared with verbal materials, (b) global predictions were higher and more accurate for SPT as compared to verbal materials, and (c) item-by-item predictions were most accurate for materials encoded with the most flexibility (Nonsense Pairs). The results suggest that SPTs may provide some level of environmental support to reduce age differences in performance and task-specific self-efficacy, but that memory monitoring may depend on specific characteristics of the stimuli (i.e., flexibility of encoding) rather than their verbal or nonverbal nature.

Analysis, prediction, and case studies of early-age cracking in bridge decks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ElSafty, Adel; Graeff, Matthew K.; El-Gharib, Georges; Abdel-Mohti, Ahmed; Mike Jackson, N.

2016-06-01

Early-age cracking can adversely affect strength, serviceability, and durability of concrete bridge decks. Early age is defined as the period after final setting, during which concrete properties change rapidly. Many factors can cause early-age bridge deck cracking including temperature change, hydration, plastic shrinkage, autogenous shrinkage, and drying shrinkage. The cracking may also increase the effect of freeze and thaw cycles and may lead to corrosion of reinforcement. This research paper presents an analysis of causes and factors affecting early-age cracking. It also provides a tool developed to predict the likelihood and initiation of early-age cracking of concrete bridge decks. Understanding the concrete properties is essential so that the developed tool can accurately model the mechanisms contributing to the cracking of concrete bridge decks. The user interface of the implemented computer Excel program enables the user to input the properties of the concrete being monitored. The research study and the developed spreadsheet were used to comprehensively investigate the issue of concrete deck cracking. The spreadsheet is designed to be a user-friendly calculation tool for concrete mixture proportioning, temperature prediction, thermal analysis, and tensile cracking prediction. The study also provides review and makes recommendations on the deck cracking based mainly on the Florida Department of Transportation specifications and Structures Design Guidelines, and Bridge Design Manuals of other states. The results were also compared with that of other commercially available software programs that predict early-age cracking in concrete slabs, concrete pavement, and reinforced concrete bridge decks. The outcome of this study can identify a set of recommendations to limit the deck cracking problem and maintain a longer service life of bridges.

Kicking Back Cognitive Ageing: Leg Power Predicts Cognitive Ageing after Ten Years in Older Female Twins

PubMed Central

Steves, Claire J.; Mehta, Mitul M.; Jackson, Stephen H.D.; Spector, Tim D.

2016-01-01

Background Many observational studies have shown a protective effect of physical activity on cognitive ageing, but interventional studies have been less convincing. This may be due to short time scales of interventions, suboptimal interventional regimes or lack of lasting effect. Confounding through common genetic and developmental causes is also possible. Objectives We aimed to test whether muscle fitness (measured by leg power) could predict cognitive change in a healthy older population over a 10-year time interval, how this performed alongside other predictors of cognitive ageing, and whether this effect was confounded by factors shared by twins. In addition, we investigated whether differences in leg power were predictive of differences in brain structure and function after 12 years of follow-up in identical twin pairs. Methods A total of 324 healthy female twins (average age at baseline 55, range 43-73) performed the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB) at two time points 10 years apart. Linear regression modelling was used to assess the relationships between baseline leg power, physical activity and subsequent cognitive change, adjusting comprehensively for baseline covariates (including heart disease, diabetes, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, lipids, diet, body habitus, smoking and alcohol habits, reading IQ, socioeconomic status and birthweight). A discordant twin approach was used to adjust for factors shared by twins. A subset of monozygotic pairs then underwent magnetic resonance imaging. The relationship between muscle fitness and brain structure and function was assessed using linear regression modelling and paired t tests. Results A striking protective relationship was found between muscle fitness (leg power) and both 10-year cognitive change [fully adjusted model standardised β-coefficient (Stdβ) = 0.174, p = 0.002] and subsequent total grey matter (Stdβ = 0.362, p = 0.005). These effects were robust in discordant

Kicking Back Cognitive Ageing: Leg Power Predicts Cognitive Ageing after Ten Years in Older Female Twins.

PubMed

Steves, Claire J; Mehta, Mitul M; Jackson, Stephen H D; Spector, Tim D

2016-01-01

Many observational studies have shown a protective effect of physical activity on cognitive ageing, but interventional studies have been less convincing. This may be due to short time scales of interventions, suboptimal interventional regimes or lack of lasting effect. Confounding through common genetic and developmental causes is also possible. We aimed to test whether muscle fitness (measured by leg power) could predict cognitive change in a healthy older population over a 10-year time interval, how this performed alongside other predictors of cognitive ageing, and whether this effect was confounded by factors shared by twins. In addition, we investigated whether differences in leg power were predictive of differences in brain structure and function after 12 years of follow-up in identical twin pairs. A total of 324 healthy female twins (average age at baseline 55, range 43-73) performed the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB) at two time points 10 years apart. Linear regression modelling was used to assess the relationships between baseline leg power, physical activity and subsequent cognitive change, adjusting comprehensively for baseline covariates (including heart disease, diabetes, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, lipids, diet, body habitus, smoking and alcohol habits, reading IQ, socioeconomic status and birthweight). A discordant twin approach was used to adjust for factors shared by twins. A subset of monozygotic pairs then underwent magnetic resonance imaging. The relationship between muscle fitness and brain structure and function was assessed using linear regression modelling and paired t tests. A striking protective relationship was found between muscle fitness (leg power) and both 10-year cognitive change [fully adjusted model standardised β-coefficient (Stdβ) = 0.174, p = 0.002] and subsequent total grey matter (Stdβ = 0.362, p = 0.005). These effects were robust in discordant twin analyses, where within

Learning-based prediction of gestational age from ultrasound images of the fetal brain.

PubMed

Namburete, Ana I L; Stebbing, Richard V; Kemp, Bryn; Yaqub, Mohammad; Papageorghiou, Aris T; Alison Noble, J

2015-04-01

We propose an automated framework for predicting gestational age (GA) and neurodevelopmental maturation of a fetus based on 3D ultrasound (US) brain image appearance. Our method capitalizes on age-related sonographic image patterns in conjunction with clinical measurements to develop, for the first time, a predictive age model which improves on the GA-prediction potential of US images. The framework benefits from a manifold surface representation of the fetal head which delineates the inner skull boundary and serves as a common coordinate system based on cranial position. This allows for fast and efficient sampling of anatomically-corresponding brain regions to achieve like-for-like structural comparison of different developmental stages. We develop bespoke features which capture neurosonographic patterns in 3D images, and using a regression forest classifier, we characterize structural brain development both spatially and temporally to capture the natural variation existing in a healthy population (N=447) over an age range of active brain maturation (18-34weeks). On a routine clinical dataset (N=187) our age prediction results strongly correlate with true GA (r=0.98,accurate within±6.10days), confirming the link between maturational progression and neurosonographic activity observable across gestation. Our model also outperforms current clinical methods by ±4.57 days in the third trimester-a period complicated by biological variations in the fetal population. Through feature selection, the model successfully identified the most age-discriminating anatomies over this age range as being the Sylvian fissure, cingulate, and callosal sulci. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aging and inhibitory control of action: cortico-subthalamic connection strength predicts stopping performance.

PubMed

Coxon, James P; Van Impe, Annouchka; Wenderoth, Nicole; Swinnen, Stephan P

2012-06-13

Diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) studies in humans have shown that seniors exhibit reduced white matter integrity compared with young adults, with the most pronounced change occurring in frontal white matter. It is generally assumed that this structural deterioration underlies inhibitory control deficits in old age, but specific evidence from a structural neuroscience perspective is lacking. Cognitive action control is thought to rely on an interconnected network consisting of right inferior frontal cortex (r-IFC), pre-supplementary motor area (preSMA), and the subthalamic nucleus (STN). Here we performed probabilistic DWI tractography to delineate this cognitive control network and had the same individuals (20 young, 20 older adults) perform a task probing both response inhibition and action reprogramming. We hypothesized that structural integrity (fractional anisotropy) and connection strength within this network would be predictive of individual and age-related differences in task performance. We show that the integrity of r-IFC white matter is an age-independent predictor of stop-signal reaction time (SSRT). We further provide evidence that the integrity of white matter projecting to STN predicts both outright stopping (SSRT) and transient braking of response initiation to buy time for action reprogramming (stopping interference effects). These associations remain even after controlling for Go task performance, demonstrating specificity to the Stop component of this task. Finally, a multiple regression analysis reveals bilateral preSMA-STN tract strength as a significant predictor of SSRT in older adults. Our data link age-related decline in inhibitory control with structural decline of STN projections.

Prediction of developmental performance in preterm infants at two years of corrected age: contribution of the neurological assessment at term age.

PubMed

Simard, Marie-Noëlle; Lambert, Jean; Lachance, Christian; Audibert, François; Gosselin, Julie

2011-12-01

The population of preterm infants is increasing and resources available for follow-up are limited. Early markers are needed to identify children who will show major as well as more subtle neurodevelopmental impairments. Such a challenge could be achieved with the Amiel-Tison Neurological Assessment at Term (ATNAT). This study assesses the usefulness of the ATNAT in the prediction of developmental problems at two years of corrected age (CA) in infants born between 29 and 37 weeks of gestation. Inclusion criteria were: gestational age between 29(0/7) and 36(6/7) weeks inclusively, birth weight below 2500g and minimal 24-hour stay in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Sainte-Justine Hospital. A sample of 147 was prospectively recruited and assessed at two ages: at term with the ATNAT and at 24months CA with Bayley Scales of Infant Development-II. No major impairment such as cerebral palsy and no neurosensory impairment were observed. Developmental delay defined by an index<70 on the mental or psychomotor scale was reported respectively in 6.2% and 5.4% of the cohort. Significant differences in mental, psychomotor and behavioral performances were found according to neurological status. Neurological status was the only variable to enter the predictive model for psychomotor and behavioral indexes. Gender and neurological status remained in the predictive model for mental performance. This study supports the inclusion of the ATNAT among the eligibility criteria for systematic neurodevelopmental surveillance as it allows early identification of infants at higher risk of low developmental performances at 24months CA. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age and Preoperative Knee Society Score Are Significant Predictors of Outcomes Among Asians Following Total Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Bin Abd Razak, Hamid Rahmatullah; Tan, Chuen-Seng; Chen, Yongqiang Jerry Delphi; Pang, Hee-Nee; Tay, Keng-Jin Darren; Chin, Pak-Lin; Chia, Shi-Lu; Lo, Ngai-Nung; Yeo, Seng-Jin

2016-05-04

The ability to predict patients' functional outcomes will add value to preoperative counseling. The purpose of this study was to evaluate predictors of good outcomes following total knee arthroplasty (TKA) among Asian patients. Registry data from 2006 to 2010 were extracted. The Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and the Short Form (SF)-36 physical component summary (PCS) were used to evaluate outcomes. A "good outcome" was defined as an improvement in scores of greater than or equal to the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in the primary analysis. The MCID for the OKS was 5, and the MCID for the PCS was 10. For the sensitivity analyses, a "good outcome" was defined as an OKS of <30 and a PCS score of >50. Clinical variables were used to develop a multiple logistic regression model for a good outcome following total knee arthroplasty at 5 years. Follow-up data were available for 3,062 patients who underwent primary TKA (mean age of 66.4 years; 79.5% female). Eighty-five percent had a good outcome on the basis of the OKS and 83%, on the basis of the SF-36 PCS. Age and preoperative Knee Society score (KSS) were found to be significant predictors. When outcomes were assessed by the MCID, lesser age and lower (worse) preoperative KSS predicted a good outcome at 5 years. When outcomes were assessed by absolute criteria (postoperative scores measured against OKS and PCS thresholds), a higher (better) preoperative KSS predicted a good outcome at 5 years. Body mass index, preoperative flexion range, SF-36 mental component summary (MCS) score, mechanical alignment, sex, education level, ethnicity, operative side, number of comorbidities, type of anesthesia, and type of implant were found not to be significant predictors. The majority of Asian patients with osteoarthritis had good outcomes according to the MCID criterion and benefitted from primary TKA. On the basis of our findings, we believe that older patients with a lower (worse) preoperative KSS can be informed that

Role of Sex, Socioeconomic Status, and Emotional Support in Predicting Aging Perception Among Older Adults.

PubMed

Yaghoobzadeh, Ameneh; Sharif Nia, Hamid; Pahlevan Sharif, Saeed; Hosseinigolafshani, Seyedeh Zahra; Mohammadi, Fatemeh; Oveisi, Sonia; Allen, Kelly A

2017-01-01

Self-perception is found to be a central predictive factor in experiencing successful aging. The aim of this study was to explore the role of sex, socioeconomic status, and emotional support in elders' aging perception. A cross-sectional design was used with 300 older aged participants recruited from 23 clinics and health centers in Qazvin, Iran. Data were collected included questions to elicit demographic information and Barker's aging perception questionnaire. Exploratory multiple linear regression showed that the level of emotional support (β: -12.10; 95% CI: [-20.72, -3.48]), socioeconomic status (β: 2.84; 95% CI: [0.25, 5.43]), and women (β: -4.34; 95% CI: [-6.91, -1.77]) were associated with aging perception among elders. Educational level and marital status did not significantly contribute to the variance of AP. Findings revealed that aging perception was related to individual differences as well as social and emotional factors. Researchers, health-care professionals, and elders may benefit from thinking about old age as an inevitable life stage.

Knee joint forces: prediction, measurement, and significance

PubMed Central

D’Lima, Darryl D.; Fregly, Benjamin J.; Patil, Shantanu; Steklov, Nikolai; Colwell, Clifford W.

2011-01-01

Knee forces are highly significant in osteoarthritis and in the survival and function of knee arthroplasty. A large number of studies have attempted to estimate forces around the knee during various activities. Several approaches have been used to relate knee kinematics and external forces to internal joint contact forces, the most popular being inverse dynamics, forward dynamics, and static body analyses. Knee forces have also been measured in vivo after knee arthroplasty, which serves as valuable validation of computational predictions. This review summarizes the results of published studies that measured knee forces for various activities. The efficacy of various methods to alter knee force distribution, such as gait modification, orthotics, walking aids, and custom treadmills are analyzed. Current gaps in our knowledge are identified and directions for future research in this area are outlined. PMID:22468461

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction.

PubMed

Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Chaumoître, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

2017-01-01

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0-12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Heritability of and Mortality Prediction With a Longevity Phenotype: The Healthy Aging Index

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background. Longevity-associated genes may modulate risk for age-related diseases and survival. The Healthy Aging Index (HAI) may be a subphenotype of longevity, which can be constructed in many studies for genetic analysis. We investigated the HAI’s association with survival in the Cardiovascular Health Study and heritability in the Long Life Family Study. Methods. The HAI includes systolic blood pressure, pulmonary vital capacity, creatinine, fasting glucose, and Modified Mini-Mental Status Examination score, each scored 0, 1, or 2 using approximate tertiles and summed from 0 (healthy) to 10 (unhealthy). In Cardiovascular Health Study, the association with mortality and accuracy predicting death were determined with Cox proportional hazards analysis and c-statistics, respectively. In Long Life Family Study, heritability was determined with a variance component–based family analysis using a polygenic model. Results. Cardiovascular Health Study participants with unhealthier index scores (7–10) had 2.62-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.22, 3.10) greater mortality than participants with healthier scores (0–2). The HAI alone predicted death moderately well (c-statistic = 0.643, 95% confidence interval: 0.626, 0.661, p < .0001) and slightly worse than age alone (c-statistic = 0.700, 95% confidence interval: 0.684, 0.717, p < .0001; p < .0001 for comparison of c-statistics). Prediction increased significantly with adjustment for demographics, health behaviors, and clinical comorbidities (c-statistic = 0.780, 95% confidence interval: 0.765, 0.794, p < .0001). In Long Life Family Study, the heritability of the HAI was 0.295 (p < .0001) overall, 0.387 (p < .0001) in probands, and 0.238 (p = .0004) in offspring. Conclusion. The HAI should be investigated further as a candidate phenotype for uncovering longevity-associated genes in humans. PMID:23913930

Household Food Insecurity May Predict Underweightand Wasting among Children Aged 24-59 Months.

PubMed

Abdurahman, Ahmed A; Mirzaei, Khadijeh; Dorosty, Ahmed Reza; Rahimiforoushani, A; Kedir, Haji

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the association between household food insecurity and nutritional status among children aged 24-59 months in Haromaya District. Children (N = 453) aged 24-59 months were recruited in a community-based cross-sectional survey with a representative sample of households selected by a multistage sampling procedure in Haromaya District. Household Food Insecurity Access Scale and anthropometry were administered. Multinomial logistic regression models were applied to select variables that are candidate for multivariable model. The prevalences of stunting, underweight, and wasting among children aged 24-59 months were 61.1%, 28.1%, and 11.8%, respectively. The mean household food insecurity access scale score was 3.34, and 39.7% of households experienced some degree of food insecurity. By logistic regression analysis and after adjusting for the confounding factors, household food insecurity was significantly predictive of underweight (AOR = 2.48, CI = 1.17-5.24, p = .05) and chronic energy deficiency (AOR = 0.47, CI = 0.23-0.97, p = .04) and marginally significant for wasting (AOR = 0.53, CI = 0.27-1.03, p = .06). It is concluded that household food security improves child growth and nutritional status.

Predicting body fat percentage based on gender, age and BMI by using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Kupusinac, Aleksandar; Stokić, Edita; Doroslovački, Rade

2014-02-01

In the human body, the relation between fat and fat-free mass (muscles, bones etc.) is necessary for the diagnosis of obesity and prediction of its comorbidities. Numerous formulas, such as Deurenberg et al., Gallagher et al., Jackson and Pollock, Jackson et al. etc., are available to predict body fat percentage (BF%) from gender (GEN), age (AGE) and body mass index (BMI). These formulas are all fairly similar and widely applicable, since they provide an easy, low-cost and non-invasive prediction of BF%. This paper presents a program solution for predicting BF% based on artificial neural network (ANN). ANN training, validation and testing are done by randomly divided dataset that includes 2755 subjects: 1332 women (GEN = 0) and 1423 men (GEN = 1), with AGE from 18 to 88 y and BMI from 16.60 to 64.60 kg/m(2). BF% was estimated by using Tanita bioelectrical impedance measurements (Tanita Corporation, Tokyo, Japan). ANN inputs are: GEN, AGE and BMI, and output is BF%. The predictive accuracy of our solution is 80.43%. The main goal of this paper is to promote a new approach to predicting BF% that has same complexity and costs but higher predictive accuracy than above-mentioned formulas. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Positive and Negative Emotionality at Age 3 Predicts Change in Frontal EEG Asymmetry across Early Childhood.

PubMed

Goldstein, Brandon L; Shankman, Stewart A; Kujawa, Autumn; Torpey-Newman, Dana C; Dyson, Margaret W; Olino, Thomas M; Klein, Daniel N

2018-04-24

Depression is characterized by low positive emotionality (PE) and high negative emotionality (NE), as well as asymmetries in resting electroencephalography (EEG) alpha power. Moreover, frontal asymmetry has itself been linked to PE, NE, and related constructs. However, little is known about associations of temperamental PE and NE with resting EEG asymmetries in young children and whether this association changes as a function of development. In a longitudinal study of 254 three-year old children, we assessed PE and NE at age 3 using a standard laboratory observation procedure. Frontal EEG asymmetries were assessed at age 3 and three years later at age 6. We observed a significant three-way interaction of preschool PE and NE and age at assessment for asymmetry at F3-F4 electrode sites, such that children with both low PE and high NE developed a pattern of increasingly lower relative left-frontal cortical activity over time. In addition, F7-F8 asymmetry was predicted by a PE by time interaction, such that the frontal asymmetry in children with high PE virtually disappeared by age 6. Overall, these findings suggest that early temperament is associated with developmental changes in frontal asymmetry, and that the combination of low PE and high NE predicts the development of the pattern of frontal symmetry that is associated with depression.

Predictive aging results for cable materials in nuclear power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gillen, K.T.; Clough, R.L.

1990-11-01

In this report, we provide a detailed discussion of methodology of predicting cable degradation versus dose rate, temperature, and exposure time and its application to data obtained on a number of additional nuclear power plant cable insulation (a hypalon, a silicon rubber and two ethylenetetrafluoroethylenes) and jacket (a hypalon) materials. We then show that the predicted, low-dose-rate results for our materials are in excellent agreement with long-term (7 to 9 years), low dose-rate results recently obtained for the same material types actually aged under nuclear power plant conditions. Based on a combination of the modelling and long-term results, we findmore » indications of reasonably similar degradation responses among several different commercial formulations for each of the following generic'' materials: hypalon, ethylenetetrafluoroethylene, silicone rubber and PVC. If such generic'' behavior can be further substantiated through modelling and long-term results on additional formulations, predictions of cable life for other commercial materials of the same generic types would be greatly facilitated. Finally, to aid utilities in their cable life extension decisions, we utilize our modelling results to generate lifetime prediction curves for the materials modelled to data. These curves plot expected material lifetime versus dose rate and temperature down to the levels of interest to nuclear power plant aging. 18 refs., 30 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Inflammation, But Not Telomere Length, Predicts Successful Ageing at Extreme Old Age: A Longitudinal Study of Semi-supercentenarians.

PubMed

Arai, Yasumichi; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen M; Takayama, Michiyo; Abe, Yukiko; Takebayashi, Toru; Koyasu, Shigeo; Suematsu, Makoto; Hirose, Nobuyoshi; von Zglinicki, Thomas

2015-10-01

To determine the most important drivers of successful ageing at extreme old age, we combined community-based prospective cohorts: Tokyo Oldest Old Survey on Total Health (TOOTH), Tokyo Centenarians Study (TCS) and Japanese Semi-Supercentenarians Study (JSS) comprising 1554 individuals including 684 centenarians and (semi-)supercentenarians, 167 pairs of centenarian offspring and spouses, and 536 community-living very old (85 to 99 years). We combined z scores from multiple biomarkers to describe haematopoiesis, inflammation, lipid and glucose metabolism, liver function, renal function, and cellular senescence domains. In Cox proportional hazard models, inflammation predicted all-cause mortality with hazard ratios (95% CI) 1.89 (1.21 to 2.95) and 1.36 (1.05 to 1.78) in the very old and (semi-)supercentenarians, respectively. In linear forward stepwise models, inflammation predicted capability (10.8% variance explained) and cognition (8(.)6% variance explained) in (semi-)supercentenarians better than chronologic age or gender. The inflammation score was also lower in centenarian offspring compared to age-matched controls with Δ (95% CI) = - 0.795 (- 1.436 to - 0.154). Centenarians and their offspring were able to maintain long telomeres, but telomere length was not a predictor of successful ageing in centenarians and semi-supercentenarians. We conclude that inflammation is an important malleable driver of ageing up to extreme old age in humans.

Inflammation, But Not Telomere Length, Predicts Successful Ageing at Extreme Old Age: A Longitudinal Study of Semi-supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Arai, Yasumichi; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen M.; Takayama, Michiyo; Abe, Yukiko; Takebayashi, Toru; Koyasu, Shigeo; Suematsu, Makoto; Hirose, Nobuyoshi; von Zglinicki, Thomas

2015-01-01

To determine the most important drivers of successful ageing at extreme old age, we combined community-based prospective cohorts: Tokyo Oldest Old Survey on Total Health (TOOTH), Tokyo Centenarians Study (TCS) and Japanese Semi-Supercentenarians Study (JSS) comprising 1554 individuals including 684 centenarians and (semi-)supercentenarians, 167 pairs of centenarian offspring and spouses, and 536 community-living very old (85 to 99 years). We combined z scores from multiple biomarkers to describe haematopoiesis, inflammation, lipid and glucose metabolism, liver function, renal function, and cellular senescence domains. In Cox proportional hazard models, inflammation predicted all-cause mortality with hazard ratios (95% CI) 1.89 (1.21 to 2.95) and 1.36 (1.05 to 1.78) in the very old and (semi-)supercentenarians, respectively. In linear forward stepwise models, inflammation predicted capability (10.8% variance explained) and cognition (8.6% variance explained) in (semi-)supercentenarians better than chronologic age or gender. The inflammation score was also lower in centenarian offspring compared to age-matched controls with Δ (95% CI) = − 0.795 (− 1.436 to − 0.154). Centenarians and their offspring were able to maintain long telomeres, but telomere length was not a predictor of successful ageing in centenarians and semi-supercentenarians. We conclude that inflammation is an important malleable driver of ageing up to extreme old age in humans. PMID:26629551

Age and area predict patterns of species richness in pumice rafts contingent on oceanic climatic zone encountered.

PubMed

Velasquez, Eleanor; Bryan, Scott E; Ekins, Merrick; Cook, Alex G; Hurrey, Lucy; Firn, Jennifer

2018-05-01

The theory of island biogeography predicts that area and age explain species richness patterns (or alpha diversity) in insular habitats. Using a unique natural phenomenon, pumice rafting, we measured the influence of area, age, and oceanic climate on patterns of species richness. Pumice rafts are formed simultaneously when submarine volcanoes erupt, the pumice clasts breakup irregularly, forming irregularly shaped pumice stones which while floating through the ocean are colonized by marine biota. We analyze two eruption events and more than 5,000 pumice clasts collected from 29 sites and three climatic zones. Overall, the older and larger pumice clasts held more species. Pumice clasts arriving in tropical and subtropical climates showed this same trend, where in temperate locations species richness (alpha diversity) increased with area but decreased with age. Beta diversity analysis of the communities forming on pumice clasts that arrived in different climatic zones showed that tropical and subtropical clasts transported similar communities, while species composition on temperate clasts differed significantly from both tropical and subtropical arrivals. Using these thousands of insular habitats, we find strong evidence that area and age but also climatic conditions predict the fundamental dynamics of species richness colonizing pumice clasts.

Methodology for designing accelerated aging tests for predicting life of photovoltaic arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaines, G. B.; Thomas, R. E.; Derringer, G. C.; Kistler, C. W.; Bigg, D. M.; Carmichael, D. C.

1977-01-01

A methodology for designing aging tests in which life prediction was paramount was developed. The methodology builds upon experience with regard to aging behavior in those material classes which are expected to be utilized as encapsulant elements, viz., glasses and polymers, and upon experience with the design of aging tests. The experiences were reviewed, and results are discussed in detail.

Extended Aging Theories for Predictions of Safe Operational Life of Critical Airborne Structural Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, William L.; Chen, Tony

2006-01-01

The previously developed Ko closed-form aging theory has been reformulated into a more compact mathematical form for easier application. A new equivalent loading theory and empirical loading theories have also been developed and incorporated into the revised Ko aging theory for the prediction of a safe operational life of airborne failure-critical structural components. The new set of aging and loading theories were applied to predict the safe number of flights for the B-52B aircraft to carry a launch vehicle, the structural life of critical components consumed by load excursion to proof load value, and the ground-sitting life of B-52B pylon failure-critical structural components. A special life prediction method was developed for the preflight predictions of operational life of failure-critical structural components of the B-52H pylon system, for which no flight data are available.

Age prediction formulae from radiographic assessment of skeletal maturation at the knee in an Irish population.

PubMed

O'Connor, Jean E; Coyle, Joseph; Bogue, Conor; Spence, Liam D; Last, Jason

2014-01-01

Age estimation in living subjects is primarily achieved through assessment of a hand-wrist radiograph and comparison with a standard reference atlas. Recently, maturation of other regions of the skeleton has also been assessed in an attempt to refine the age estimates. The current study presents a method to predict bone age directly from the knee in a modern Irish sample. Ten maturity indicators (A-J) at the knee were examined from radiographs of 221 subjects (137 males; 84 females). Each indicator was assigned a maturity score. Scores for indicators A-G, H-J and A-J, respectively, were totalled to provide a cumulative maturity score for change in morphology of the epiphyses (AG), epiphyseal union (HJ) and the combination of both (AJ). Linear regression equations to predict age from the maturity scores (AG, HJ, AJ) were constructed for males and females. For males, equation-AJ demonstrated the greatest predictive capability (R(2)=0.775) while for females equation-HJ had the strongest capacity for prediction (R(2)=0.815). When equation-AJ for males and equation-HJ for females were applied to the current sample, the predicted age of 90% of subjects was within ±1.5 years of actual age for male subjects and within +2.0 to -1.9 years of actual age for female subjects. The regression formulae and associated charts represent the most contemporary method of age prediction currently available for an Irish population, and provide a further technique which can contribute to a multifactorial approach to age estimation in non-adults. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Memory Binding Test Predicts Incident Dementia: Results from the Einstein Aging Study.

PubMed

Mowrey, Wenzhu B; Lipton, Richard B; Katz, Mindy J; Ramratan, Wendy S; Loewenstein, David A; Zimmerman, Molly E; Buschke, Herman

2018-01-01

The Memory Binding Test (MBT) demonstrated good cross-sectional discriminative validity and predicted incident aMCI. To assess whether the MBT predicts incident dementia better than a conventional list learning test in a longitudinal community-based study. As a sub-study in the Einstein Aging Study, 309 participants age≥70 initially free of dementia were administered the MBT and followed annually for incident dementia for up to 13 years. Based on previous work, poor memory binding was defined using an optimal empirical cut-score of≤17 on the binding measure of the MBT, Total Items in the Paired condition (TIP). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess predictive validity adjusting for covariates. We compared the predictive validity of MBT TIP to that of the free and cued selective reminding test free recall score (FCSRT-FR; cut-score:≤24) and the single list recall measure of the MBT, Cued Recalled from List 1 (CR-L1; cut-score:≤12). Thirty-five of 309 participants developed incident dementia. When assessing each test alone, the hazard ratio (HR) for dementia was significant for MBT TIP (HR = 8.58, 95% CI: (3.58, 20.58), p < 0.0001), FCSRT-FR (HR = 4.19, 95% CI: (1.94, 9.04), p = 0.0003) and MBT CR-L1 (HR = 2.91, 95% CI: (1.37, 6.18), p = 0.006). MBT TIP remained a significant predictor of dementia (p = 0.0002) when adjusting for FCSRT-FR or CR-L1. Older adults with poor memory binding as measured by the MBT TIP were at increased risk for incident dementia. This measure outperforms conventional episodic memory measures of free and cued recall, supporting the memory binding hypothesis.

The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pardos, Zachary A.; Wang, Qing Yang; Trivedi, Shubhendu

2012-01-01

In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world…

Low maternal sensitivity at 6 months of age predicts higher BMI in 48 month old girls but not boys.

PubMed

Wendland, Barbara E; Atkinson, Leslie; Steiner, Meir; Fleming, Alison S; Pencharz, Paul; Moss, Ellen; Gaudreau, Hélène; Silveira, Patricia P; Arenovich, Tamara; Matthews, Stephen G; Meaney, Michael J; Levitan, Robert D

2014-11-01

Large population-based studies suggest that systematic measures of maternal sensitivity predict later risk for overweight and obesity. More work is needed to establish the developmental timing and potential moderators of this association. The current study examined the association between maternal sensitivity at 6 months of age and BMI z score measures at 48 months of age, and whether sex moderated this association. Longitudinal Canadian cohort of children from birth (the MAVAN project). This analysis was based on a dataset of 223 children (115 boys, 108 girls) who had structured assessments of maternal sensitivity at 6 months of age and 48-month BMI data available. Mother-child interactions were videotaped and systematically scored using the Maternal Behaviour Q-Sort (MBQS)-25 items, a standardized measure of maternal sensitivity. Linear mixed-effects models and logistic regression examined whether MBQS scores at 6 months predicted BMI at 48 months, controlling for other covariates. After controlling for weight-relevant covariates, there was a significant sex by MBQS interaction (P=0.015) in predicting 48 month BMI z. Further analysis revealed a strong negative association between MBQS scores and BMI in girls (P=0.01) but not boys (P=0.72). Logistic regression confirmed that in girls only, low maternal sensitivity was associated with the higher BMI categories as defined by the WHO (i.e. "at risk for overweight" or above). A significant association between low maternal sensitivity at 6 months of age and high body mass indices was found in girls but not boys at 48 months of age. These data suggest for the first time that the link between low maternal sensitivity and early BMI z may differ between boys and girls. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High neuroticism at age 20 predicts history of mental disorders and low self-esteem at age 35.

PubMed

Lönnqvist, Jan-Erik; Verkasalo, Markku; Mäkinen, Seppo; Henriksson, Markus

2009-07-01

The authors assessed whether neuroticism in emerging adulthood predicts mental disorders and self-esteem in early adulthood after controlling for possible confounding variables. A sample of 69 male military conscripts was initially assessed at age 20 and again as civilians at age 35. The initial assessment included a psychiatric interview, objective indicators of conscript competence, an intellectual performance test, and neuroticism questionnaires. The follow-up assessment included a Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID; First, Spitzer, Gibbon, & Williams, 1996) and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1965). Neuroticism predicted future mental disorders and low self-esteem beyond more objective indicators of adjustment. The results support the use of neuroticism as a predictor of future mental disorders, even over periods of time when personality is subject to change.

One Size Fits All? Applying Theoretical Predictions about Age and Emotional Experience to People with Functional Disabilities

PubMed Central

Piazza, Jennifer R.; Charles, Susan T.; Luong, Gloria; Almeida, David M.

2015-01-01

The current study examined whether commonly observed age differences in affective experience among community samples of healthy adults would generalize to a group of adults who live with significant functional disability. Age differences in daily affect and affective reactivity to daily stressors among a sample of participants with spinal cord injury were compared to a non-injured sample. Results revealed that patterns of affective experience varied by sample. Among non-injured adults, older age was associated with lower levels of daily negative affect (NA), higher levels of daily positive affect (PA), and less negative affective reactivity in response to daily stressors. In contrast, among participants with spinal cord injury, no age differences emerged. Findings, which support the model of Strength and Vulnerability Integration (SAVI), underscore the importance of taking life context into account when predicting age differences in affective well-being. PMID:26322552

Choline-to-N-acetyl aspartate and lipids-lactate-to-creatine ratios together with age assemble a significant Cox's proportional-hazards regression model for prediction of survival in high-grade gliomas.

PubMed

Roldan-Valadez, Ernesto; Rios, Camilo; Motola-Kuba, Daniel; Matus-Santos, Juan; Villa, Antonio R; Moreno-Jimenez, Sergio

2016-11-01

A long-lasting concern has prevailed for the identification of predictive biomarkers for high-grade gliomas (HGGs) using MRI. However, a consensus of which imaging parameters assemble a significant survival model is still missing in the literature; we investigated the significant positive or negative contribution of several MR biomarkers in this tumour prognosis. A retrospective cohort of supratentorial HGGs [11 glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) and 17 anaplastic astrocytomas] included 28 patients (9 females and 19 males, respectively, with a mean age of 50.4 years, standard deviation: 16.28 years; range: 13-85 years). Oedema and viable tumour measurements were acquired using regions of interest in T 1 weighted, T 2 weighted, fluid-attenuated inversion recovery, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and MR spectroscopy (MRS). We calculated Kaplan-Meier curves and obtained Cox's proportional hazards. During the follow-up period (3-98 months), 17 deaths were recorded. The median survival time was 1.73 years (range, 0.287-8.947 years). Only 3 out of 20 covariates (choline-to-N-acetyl aspartate and lipids-lactate-to-creatine ratios and age) showed significance in explaining the variability in the survival hazards model; score test: χ 2 (3) = 9.098, p = 0.028. MRS metabolites overcome volumetric parameters of peritumoral oedema and viable tumour, as well as tumour region ADC measurements. Specific MRS ratios (Cho/Naa, L-L/Cr) might be considered in a regular follow-up for these tumours. Advances in knowledge: Cho/Naa ratio is the strongest survival predictor with a log-hazard function of 2.672 in GBM. Low levels of lipids-lactate/Cr ratio represent up to a 41.6% reduction in the risk of death in GBM.

Choline-to-N-acetyl aspartate and lipids-lactate-to-creatine ratios together with age assemble a significant Cox's proportional-hazards regression model for prediction of survival in high-grade gliomas

PubMed Central

Rios, Camilo; Motola-Kuba, Daniel; Matus-Santos, Juan; Villa, Antonio R; Moreno-Jimenez, Sergio

2016-01-01

Objective: A long-lasting concern has prevailed for the identification of predictive biomarkers for high-grade gliomas (HGGs) using MRI. However, a consensus of which imaging parameters assemble a significant survival model is still missing in the literature; we investigated the significant positive or negative contribution of several MR biomarkers in this tumour prognosis. Methods: A retrospective cohort of supratentorial HGGs [11 glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) and 17 anaplastic astrocytomas] included 28 patients (9 females and 19 males, respectively, with a mean age of 50.4 years, standard deviation: 16.28 years; range: 13–85 years). Oedema and viable tumour measurements were acquired using regions of interest in T1 weighted, T2 weighted, fluid-attenuated inversion recovery, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and MR spectroscopy (MRS). We calculated Kaplan–Meier curves and obtained Cox's proportional hazards. Results: During the follow-up period (3–98 months), 17 deaths were recorded. The median survival time was 1.73 years (range, 0.287–8.947 years). Only 3 out of 20 covariates (choline-to-N-acetyl aspartate and lipids-lactate-to-creatine ratios and age) showed significance in explaining the variability in the survival hazards model; score test: χ2 (3) = 9.098, p = 0.028. Conclusion: MRS metabolites overcome volumetric parameters of peritumoral oedema and viable tumour, as well as tumour region ADC measurements. Specific MRS ratios (Cho/Naa, L-L/Cr) might be considered in a regular follow-up for these tumours. Advances in knowledge: Cho/Naa ratio is the strongest survival predictor with a log-hazard function of 2.672 in GBM. Low levels of lipids–lactate/Cr ratio represent up to a 41.6% reduction in the risk of death in GBM. PMID:27626830

Age and Improved Attention Predict Work Attainment in Combined Compensatory Cognitive Training and Supported Employment for People With Severe Mental Illness.

PubMed

Puig, Olga; Thomas, Kelsey R; Twamley, Elizabeth W

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine whether cognitive change and age predicted work outcome in the context of supported employment (SE) and compensatory cognitive training (CCT) in severe mental illness. Forty unemployed outpatients receiving SE (7 young [20-35 years], 15 middle-aged [36-50 years], and 18 older [51-66 years] patients) completed cognitive assessments at baseline and after 12 weeks of CCT. Logistic regression analyses showed that improvement in attention/vigilance significantly predicted work attainment (B = 2.35, SE = 1.16, p = 0.043). Young and older participants were more likely to obtain work than middle-aged participants (B = 4.03, SE = 1.43, p = 0.005; B = 2.16, SE = 0.93, p = 0.021, respectively). Improved attention and age group (young and old) were associated with better work outcomes after SE + CCT. Improving attention may be an important target for improving work outcome in severe mental illness. Middle-aged individuals may need additional support to return to work.

Prostate cancer prediction using the random forest algorithm that takes into account transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen.

PubMed

Xiao, Li-Hong; Chen, Pei-Ran; Gou, Zhong-Ping; Li, Yong-Zhong; Li, Mei; Xiang, Liang-Cheng; Feng, Ping

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the random forest algorithm that combines data on transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen to predict prostate carcinoma. Clinico-demographic data were analyzed for 941 patients with prostate diseases treated at our hospital, including age, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, transrectal ultrasound findings, and pathology diagnosis based on ultrasound-guided needle biopsy of the prostate. These data were compared between patients with and without prostate cancer using the Chi-square test, and then entered into the random forest model to predict diagnosis. Patients with and without prostate cancer differed significantly in age and serum prostate-specific antigen levels (P < 0.001), as well as in all transrectal ultrasound characteristics (P < 0.05) except uneven echo (P = 0.609). The random forest model based on age, prostate-specific antigen and ultrasound predicted prostate cancer with an accuracy of 83.10%, sensitivity of 65.64%, and specificity of 93.83%. Positive predictive value was 86.72%, and negative predictive value was 81.64%. By integrating age, prostate-specific antigen levels and transrectal ultrasound findings, the random forest algorithm shows better diagnostic performance for prostate cancer than either diagnostic indicator on its own. This algorithm may help improve diagnosis of the disease by identifying patients at high risk for biopsy.

Predictive neuromechanical simulations indicate why walking performance declines with ageing.

PubMed

Song, Seungmoon; Geyer, Hartmut

2018-04-01

Although the natural decline in walking performance with ageing affects the quality of life of a growing elderly population, its physiological origins remain unknown. By using predictive neuromechanical simulations of human walking with age-related neuro-musculo-skeletal changes, we find evidence that the loss of muscle strength and muscle contraction speed dominantly contribute to the reduced walking economy and speed. The findings imply that focusing on recovering these muscular changes may be the only effective way to improve performance in elderly walking. More generally, the work is of interest for investigating the physiological causes of altered gait due to age, injury and disorders. Healthy elderly people walk slower and energetically less efficiently than young adults. This decline in walking performance lowers the quality of life for a growing ageing population, and understanding its physiological origin is critical for devising interventions that can delay or revert it. However, the origin of the decline in walking performance remains unknown, as ageing produces a range of physiological changes whose individual effects on gait are difficult to separate in experiments with human subjects. Here we use a predictive neuromechanical model to separately address the effects of common age-related changes to the skeletal, muscular and nervous systems. We find in computer simulations of this model that the combined changes produce gait consistent with elderly walking and that mainly the loss of muscle strength and mass reduces energy efficiency. In addition, we find that the slower preferred walking speed of elderly people emerges in the simulations when adapting to muscle fatigue, again mainly caused by muscle-related changes. The results suggest that a focus on recovering these muscular changes may be the only effective way to improve performance in elderly walking. © 2018 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2018 The Physiological Society.

Milk Consumption after Age 9 Years Does Not Predict Age at Menarche123

PubMed Central

Carwile, Jenny L; Willett, Walter C; Wang, Molin; Rich-Edwards, Janet; Frazier, A Lindsay; Michels, Karin B

2015-01-01

Background: Regular milk consumption during childhood and adolescence is recommended for bone health. However, milk consumption increases circulating insulin-like growth factor I concentrations, and may also accelerate puberty. Objective: We prospectively investigated the association between milk consumption and age at menarche in the Growing Up Today Study. Methods: Study participants were 5583 US girls who were premenarcheal and ages 9–14 y in 1996. Girls were followed through 2001, at which time 97% of noncensored participants had reported menarche. Frequency of milk and meat consumption was calculated with the use of annual youth/adolescent food frequency questionnaires from 1996–1998. Intake of related nutrients was also measured. Age at menarche was self-reported annually through 2001. Results: During follow-up, 5227 girls attained menarche over 10,555 accrued person-years. In models adjusted for dietary and sociodemographic predictors of menarche, frequency of milk consumption did not predict age at onset of menarche (for >3 glasses of milk/d vs. 1.1–4 glasses/wk, HR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.04). After additional adjustment for body size, premenarcheal girls consuming >3 glasses of milk daily were 13% less likely (95% CI: −3%, −23%; P-trend: <0.01) to attain menarche in the next month relative to those consuming 1.1–4 glasses/wk. Neither total meat nor red meat consumption was associated with age at menarche. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that regular consumption of milk in girls aged ≥9 y is unlikely to substantially affect age at onset of menarche. Studies assessing associations between diet in early childhood and pubertal timing may be more illuminating. PMID:26136590

Changes in Predictive Task Switching with Age and with Cognitive Load.

PubMed

Levy-Tzedek, Shelly

2017-01-01

Predictive control of movement is more efficient than feedback-based control, and is an important skill in everyday life. We tested whether the ability to predictively control movements of the upper arm is affected by age and by cognitive load. A total of 63 participants were tested in two experiments. In both experiments participants were seated, and controlled a cursor on a computer screen by flexing and extending their dominant arm. In Experiment 1, 20 young adults and 20 older adults were asked to continuously change the frequency of their horizontal arm movements, with the goal of inducing an abrupt switch between discrete movements (at low frequencies) and rhythmic movements (at high frequencies). We tested whether that change was performed based on a feed-forward (predictive) or on a feedback (reactive) control. In Experiment 2, 23 young adults performed the same task, while being exposed to a cognitive load half of the time via a serial subtraction task. We found that both aging and cognitive load diminished, on average, the ability of participants to predictively control their movements. Five older adults and one young adult under a cognitive load were not able to perform the switch between rhythmic and discrete movement (or vice versa). In Experiment 1, 40% of the older participants were able to predictively control their movements, compared with 70% in the young group. In Experiment 2, 48% of the participants were able to predictively control their movements with a cognitively loading task, compared with 70% in the no-load condition. The ability to predictively change a motor plan in anticipation of upcoming changes may be an important component in performing everyday functions, such as safe driving and avoiding falls.

Effect of curcumin on aged Drosophila melanogaster: a pathway prediction analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhi-guo; Niu, Xu-yan; Lu, Ai-ping; Xiao, Gary Guishan

2015-02-01

To re-analyze the data published in order to explore plausible biological pathways that can be used to explain the anti-aging effect of curcumin. Microarray data generated from other study aiming to investigate effect of curcumin on extending lifespan of Drosophila melanogaster were further used for pathway prediction analysis. The differentially expressed genes were identified by using GeneSpring GX with a criterion of 3.0-fold change. Two Cytoscape plugins including BisoGenet and molecular complex detection (MCODE) were used to establish the protein-protein interaction (PPI) network based upon differential genes in order to detect highly connected regions. The function annotation clustering tool of Database for Annotation, Visualization and Integrated Discovery (DAVID) was used for pathway analysis. A total of 87 genes expressed differentially in D. melanogaster melanogaster treated with curcumin were identified, among which 50 were up-regulated significantly and 37 were remarkably down-regulated in D. melanogaster melanogaster treated with curcumin. Based upon these differential genes, PPI network was constructed with 1,082 nodes and 2,412 edges. Five highly connected regions in PPI networks were detected by MCODE algorithm, suggesting anti-aging effect of curcumin may be underlined through five different pathways including Notch signaling pathway, basal transcription factors, cell cycle regulation, ribosome, Wnt signaling pathway, and p53 pathway. Genes and their associated pathways in D. melanogaster melanogaster treated with anti-aging agent curcumin were identified using PPI network and MCODE algorithm, suggesting that curcumin may be developed as an alternative therapeutic medicine for treating aging-associated diseases.

End-of-Discharge and End-of-Life Prediction in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-Based Aging Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2016-01-01

As batteries become increasingly prevalent in complex systems such as aircraft and electric cars, monitoring and predicting battery state of charge and state of health becomes critical. In order to accurately predict the remaining battery power to support system operations for informed operational decision-making, age-dependent changes in dynamics must be accounted for. Using an electrochemistry-based model, we investigate how key parameters of the battery change as aging occurs, and develop models to describe aging through these key parameters. Using these models, we demonstrate how we can (i) accurately predict end-of-discharge for aged batteries, and (ii) predict the end-of-life of a battery as a function of anticipated usage. The approach is validated through an experimental set of randomized discharge profiles.

Effects of Motivation, Academic Stress and Age in Predicting Self-Directed Learning Readiness (SDLR): Focused on Online College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heo, JeongChul; Han, Sumi

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the self-directed learning readiness (SDLR) among online students might be significantly predicted by motivation, academic stress, and age. To complete the purpose of this study, the Pearson correlation and multiple-regression are analyzed. The participants for this study are college students who…

Prognostic significance of social network, social support and loneliness for course of major depressive disorder in adulthood and old age.

PubMed

van den Brink, R H S; Schutter, N; Hanssen, D J C; Elzinga, B M; Rabeling-Keus, I M; Stek, M L; Comijs, H C; Penninx, B W J H; Oude Voshaar, R C

2018-06-01

Poor recovery from depressive disorder has been shown to be related to low perceived social support and loneliness, but not to social network size or frequency of social interactions. Some studies suggest that the significance of social relationships for depression course may be greater in younger than in older patients, and may differ between men and women. None of the studies examined to what extent the different aspects of social relationships have unique or overlapping predictive values for depression course. It is the aim of the present study to examine the differential predictive values of social network characteristics, social support and loneliness for the course of depressive disorder, and to test whether these predictive associations are modified by gender or age. Two naturalistic cohort studies with the same design and overlapping instruments were combined to obtain a study sample of 1474 patients with a major depressive disorder, of whom 1181 (80.1%) could be studied over a 2-year period. Social relational variables were assessed at baseline. Two aspects of depression course were studied: remission at 2-year follow-up and change in depression severity over the follow-up period. By means of logistic regression and random coefficient analysis, the individual and combined predictive values of the different social relational variables for depression course were studied, controlling for potential confounders and checking for effect modification by age (below 60 v. 60 years or older) and gender. Multiple aspects of the social network, social support and loneliness were related to depression course, independent of potential confounders - including depression severity - but when combined, their predictive values were found to overlap to a large extent. Only the social network characteristic of living in a larger household, the social support characteristic of few negative experiences with the support from a partner or close friend, and limited feelings of

Maximal heart rate in soccer players: measured versus age-predicted.

PubMed

Nikolaidis, Pantelis T

2015-01-01

Although maximal heart rate (HR max) is widely used to assess exercise intensity in sport training, and particularly in soccer, there are limited data with regards to the use of age-based prediction equations of HR max in soccer players. The aim of this study was to compare the measured-HR max with two prediction equations (Fox-HR max = 220 - age and Tanaka-HR max = 208 - 0.7 × age) in soccer players. Adolescent (n = 162, 15.8 ± 1.5 years) and adult players (n = 158, 23.4 ± 4.6 years), all members of competitive clubs, voluntarily performed a graded exercise field test (Conconi protocol) to assess HR max . The measured-HR max (197.6 ± 9.4 bpm in total, 200.2 ± 7.9 bpm in adolescent players, and 195.0 ± 10.0 bpm in adult players) was explained by the formula HR max = 212.3 - 0.75 × age (r = -0.41, standard error of the estimate = 8.6). In the total sample, Fox-HR max overestimated measured-HR max [mean difference (95% confidence intervals) = 2.8 bpm (1.6; 3.9)], while Tanaka-HR max underestimated HR max [-3.3 bpm (-4.5; -2.2)]. In adolescents, Fox-HR max overestimated measured-HR max [4.0 bpm (2.5; 5.5)] and Tanaka-HR max underestimated HR max [- 3.2 bpm (-4.7; -1.8)]. In adults, Tanaka-HR max underestimated HR max [-5.0 bpm (-5.3; -4.7)], while there was not any difference between Fox-HR max and measured-HR max [1.6 bpm (-3.4; 0.2)]. The results of this study failed to validate two widely used prediction equations in a large sample of soccer players, indicating the need for a sport-specific equation. On the other hand, the new equation that we presented should be investigated further by future studies before being adopted by coaches and fitness trainers.

Assessing predicted age-specific breast cancer mortality rates in 27 European countries by 2020.

PubMed

Clèries, R; Rooney, R M; Vilardell, M; Espinàs, J A; Dyba, T; Borras, J M

2018-03-01

We assessed differences in predicted breast cancer (BC) mortality rates, across Europe, by 2020, taking into account changes in the time trends of BC mortality rates during the period 2000-2010. BC mortality data, for 27 European Union (EU) countries, were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. First, we compared BC mortality data between time periods 2000-2004 and 2006-2010 through standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and carrying out a graphical assessment of the age-specific rates. Second, making use of the base period 2006-2012, we predicted BC mortality rates by 2020. Finally, making use of the SMRs and the predicted data, we identified a clustering of countries, assessing differences in the time trends between the areas defined in this clustering. The clustering approach identified two clusters of countries: the first cluster were countries where BC predicted mortality rates, in 2020, might slightly increase among women aged 69 and older compared with 2010 [Greece (SMR 1.01), Croatia (SMR 1.02), Latvia (SMR 1.15), Poland (SMR 1.14), Estonia (SMR 1.16), Bulgaria (SMR 1.13), Lithuania (SMR 1.03), Romania (SMR 1.13) and Slovakia (SMR 1.06)]. The second cluster was those countries where BC mortality rates level off or decrease in all age groups (remaining countries). However, BC mortality rates between these clusters might diminish and converge to similar figures by 2020. For the year 2020, our predictions have shown a converging pattern of BC mortality rates between European regions. Reducing disparities, in access to screening and treatment, could have a substantial effect in countries where a non-decreasing trend in age-specific BC mortality rates has been predicted.

Measuring Biological Age via Metabonomics: The Metabolic Age Score.

PubMed

Hertel, Johannes; Friedrich, Nele; Wittfeld, Katharina; Pietzner, Maik; Budde, Kathrin; Van der Auwera, Sandra; Lohmann, Tobias; Teumer, Alexander; Völzke, Henry; Nauck, Matthias; Grabe, Hans Jörgen

2016-02-05

Chronological age is one of the most important risk factors for adverse clinical outcome. Still, two individuals at the same chronological age could have different biological aging states, leading to different individual risk profiles. Capturing this individual variance could constitute an even more powerful predictor enhancing prediction in age-related morbidity. Applying a nonlinear regression technique, we constructed a metabonomic measurement for biological age, the metabolic age score, based on urine data measured via (1)H NMR spectroscopy. We validated the score in two large independent population-based samples by revealing its significant associations with chronological age and age-related clinical phenotypes as well as its independent predictive value for survival over approximately 13 years of follow-up. Furthermore, the metabolic age score was prognostic for weight loss in a sample of individuals who underwent bariatric surgery. We conclude that the metabolic age score is an informative measurement of biological age with possible applications in personalized medicine.

Aldosterone dysregulation with aging predicts renal vascular function and cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Brown, Jenifer M; Underwood, Patricia C; Ferri, Claudio; Hopkins, Paul N; Williams, Gordon H; Adler, Gail K; Vaidya, Anand

2014-06-01

Aging and abnormal aldosterone regulation are both associated with vascular disease. We hypothesized that aldosterone dysregulation influences the age-related risk of renal vascular and cardiovascular disease. We conducted an analysis of 562 subjects who underwent detailed investigations under conditions of liberal and restricted dietary sodium intake (1124 visits) in the General Clinical Research Center. Aldosterone regulation was characterized by the ratio of maximal suppression to stimulation (supine serum aldosterone on a liberal sodium diet divided by the same measure on a restricted sodium diet). We previously demonstrated that higher levels of this Sodium-modulated Aldosterone Suppression-Stimulation Index (SASSI) indicate greater aldosterone dysregulation. Renal plasma flow (RPF) was determined via p-aminohippurate clearance to assess basal renal hemodynamics and the renal vascular responses to dietary sodium manipulation and angiotensin II infusion. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the Framingham Risk Score. In univariate linear regression, older age (β=-4.60; P<0.0001) and higher SASSI (β=-58.63; P=0.001) predicted lower RPF and a blunted RPF response to sodium loading and angiotensin II infusion. We observed a continuous, independent, multivariate-adjusted interaction between age and SASSI, where the inverse relationship between SASSI and RPF was most apparent with older age (P<0.05). Higher SASSI and lower RPF independently predicted higher Framingham Risk Score (P<0.0001) and together displayed an additive effect. Aldosterone regulation and age may interact to mediate renal vascular disease. Our findings suggest that the combination of aldosterone dysregulation and renal vascular dysfunction could additively increase the risk of future cardiovascular outcomes; therefore, aldosterone dysregulation may represent a modifiable mechanism of age-related vascular disease.

An Experimental Evaluation of Competing Age-Predictions of Future Time Perspective between Workplace and Retirement Domains.

PubMed

Kerry, Matthew J; Embretson, Susan E

2017-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) is defined as "perceptions of the future as being limited or open-ended" (Lang and Carstensen, 2002; p. 125). The construct figures prominently in both workplace and retirement domains, but the age-predictions are competing: Workplace research predicts decreasing FTP age-change, in contrast, retirement scholars predict increasing FTP age-change. For the first time, these competing predictions are pitted in an experimental manipulation of subjective life expectancy (SLE). A sample of N = 207 older adults (age 45-60) working full-time (>30-h/week) were randomly assigned to SLE questions framed as either 'Live-to' or 'Die-by' to evaluate competing predictions for FTP. Results indicate general support for decreasing age-change in FTP, indicated by independent-sample t -tests showing lower FTP in the 'Die-by' framing condition. Further general-linear model analyses were conducted to test for interaction effects of retirement planning with experimental framings on FTP and intended retirement; While retirement planning buffered FTP's decrease, simple-effects also revealed that retirement planning increased intentions for sooner retirement, but lack of planning increased intentions for later retirement. Discussion centers on practical implications of our findings and consequences validity evidence in future empirical research of FTP in both workplace and retirement domains.

Urine cytokine and chemokine levels predict urinary tract infection severity independent of uropathogen, urine bacterial burden, host genetics, and host age.

PubMed

Armbruster, Chelsie E; Smith, Sara N; Mody, Lona; Mobley, Harry L T

2018-06-11

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are among the most common infections worldwide. Diagnosing UTIs in older adults poses a significant challenge as asymptomatic colonization is common. Identification of a non-invasive profile that predicts likelihood of progressing from urine colonization to severe disease would provide a significant advantage in clinical practice. We monitored colonization susceptibility, disease severity, and immune response to two uropathogens in two mouse strains across three age groups to identify predictors of infection outcome. Proteus mirabilis caused more severe disease than Escherichia coli, regardless of mouse strain or age, and was associated with differences in IL-1β, IFN-β, CXCL5 (LIX), CCL5 (RANTES), and CCL2 (MCP-1). In comparing the response to infection across age groups, mature adult mice were better able to control colonization and prevent progression to kidney colonization and bacteremia than young or aged mice, regardless of mouse strain or bacterial species, and this was associated with differences in IL-23, CXCL1, and CCL5. A bimodal distribution was noted for urine colonization, which was strongly associated with bladder CFUs and the magnitude of the immune response but independent of age or disease severity. To determine the value of urine cytokine and chemokine levels for predicting severe disease, all infection datasets were combined and subjected to a series of logistic regressions. A multivariate model incorporating IL-1β, CXCL1, and CCL2 had strong predictive value for identifying mice that did not develop kidney colonization or bacteremia, regardless of mouse genetic background, age, infecting bacterial species, or urine bacterial burden. In conclusion, urine cytokine profiles could potentially serve as a non-invasive decision-support tool in clinical practice and contribute to antimicrobial stewardship. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

Predicting Maternal Health Care Use by Age at Marriage in Multiple Countries.

PubMed

Godha, Deepali; Gage, Anastasia J; Hotchkiss, David R; Cappa, Claudia

2016-05-01

In light of the global pervasiveness of child marriage and given that improving maternal health care use is an effective strategy in reducing maternal and child morbidity and mortality, the available empirical evidence on the association of child marriage with maternal health care utilization seems woefully inadequate. Furthermore, existing studies have not considered the interaction of type of place of residence and parity with child marriage, which can give added insight to program managers. Demographic Health Survey data for seven countries are used to estimate logistic regression models including interactions of age at marriage with area of residence and birth order. Adjusted predicted probabilities at representative values and marginal effects are computed for each outcome. The results show a negative association between child marriage and maternal health care use in most study countries, and this association is more negative in rural areas and with higher orders of parity. However, the association between age at marriage and maternal health care use is not straightforward but depends on parity and area of residence and varies across countries. The marginal effects in use of delivery care services between women married at age 14 years or younger and those married at age 18 years or older are more than 10% and highly significant in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, and Nepal. The study's findings call for the formulation of country-and age at marriage-specific recommendations to improve maternal and child health outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intelligence test at preschool-age predicts reading difficulty among school-aged very low birth weight infants in Japan.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Akihito; Ogino, Tatsuya; Koeda, Tatsuya; Oka, Makio; Yorifuji, Takashi; Takayanagi, Toshimitsu; Sato, Kazuo; Sugino, Noriko; Bonno, Motoki; Nakamura, Makoto; Kageyama, Misao

2018-05-21

To elucidate whether the results of an intelligence test at preschool age are predictive of reading difficulty (RD) at school age among very low birth weight infants (VLBWI). Subjects were 48 Japanese children whose birth weight was <1500 g and who regularly visited a follow-up clinic. All subjects completed the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-III (WISC-III) during the last grade of kindergarten, and four reading tasks during the second to fourth grade of elementary school. All participants had a full-scale intelligence quotient score of 85 or higher. Subjects with a standard deviation reading time score greater than 2.0 in two or more tasks were considered to have RD. We evaluated the associations between each WISC-III score and RD using logistic regression analyses. Furthermore, we performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to determine a cutoff WISC-III score predictive of RD. In the mutually-adjusted model, the adjusted odds ratio per 1 score increase of freedom from distractibility (FD) was 0.832 (95% confidence interval: 0.720-0.962). In the ROC analysis, an FD score of <95.5 was chosen as the cutoff value for predicting RD (sensitivity, 0.77; specificity, 0.74). The present study indicated that a lower FD score at preschool age, which was associated with deficits in verbal working memory and attention, is a risk factor for RD at school age among Japanese VLBWI. Further investigation is desired to clarify the cognitive deficits underlying RD in Japanese-speaking preterm children, and to establish appropriate interventions for these children. Copyright © 2018 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A novel strategy for forensic age prediction by DNA methylation and support vector regression model

PubMed Central

Xu, Cheng; Qu, Hongzhu; Wang, Guangyu; Xie, Bingbing; Shi, Yi; Yang, Yaran; Zhao, Zhao; Hu, Lan; Fang, Xiangdong; Yan, Jiangwei; Feng, Lei

2015-01-01

High deviations resulting from prediction model, gender and population difference have limited age estimation application of DNA methylation markers. Here we identified 2,957 novel age-associated DNA methylation sites (P < 0.01 and R2 > 0.5) in blood of eight pairs of Chinese Han female monozygotic twins. Among them, nine novel sites (false discovery rate < 0.01), along with three other reported sites, were further validated in 49 unrelated female volunteers with ages of 20–80 years by Sequenom Massarray. A total of 95 CpGs were covered in the PCR products and 11 of them were built the age prediction models. After comparing four different models including, multivariate linear regression, multivariate nonlinear regression, back propagation neural network and support vector regression, SVR was identified as the most robust model with the least mean absolute deviation from real chronological age (2.8 years) and an average accuracy of 4.7 years predicted by only six loci from the 11 loci, as well as an less cross-validated error compared with linear regression model. Our novel strategy provides an accurate measurement that is highly useful in estimating the individual age in forensic practice as well as in tracking the aging process in other related applications. PMID:26635134

Prediction of Significant Wave Heights in the Tropics at Sub-seasonal Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, R. P.; Shin, C. S.

2017-12-01

Skillfully predicting the 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) forecasts at 3 weeks lead-time over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans has been demonstrated using the WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model coupled to a modified version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). In this paper, we present results on the effect of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on such predictions. Forecasts initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008 are evaluated. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at 3 weeks lead-time is found over portions of the domain in both January and May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central Indian Ocean and northern western tropical Pacific, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean and western Pacific. The model also reproduces the spatial pattern of the inverse relationship between SWHA and sea level pressure anomalies during both composite El Niño and La Niña events at 3 weeks lead-time. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA in May over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea in composites of phases 2 and 6 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of MJO and ENSO. Analysis of the mechanisms for these relationships is described.

Predicting early signs of dyslexia at a preliterate age by combining behavioral assessment with structural MRI.

PubMed

Kraft, Indra; Schreiber, Jan; Cafiero, Riccardo; Metere, Riccardo; Schaadt, Gesa; Brauer, Jens; Neef, Nicole E; Müller, Bent; Kirsten, Holger; Wilcke, Arndt; Boltze, Johannes; Friederici, Angela D; Skeide, Michael A

2016-12-01

Recent studies suggest that neurobiological anomalies are already detectable in pre-school children with a family history of developmental dyslexia (DD). However, there is a lack of longitudinal studies showing a direct link between those differences at a preliterate age and the subsequent literacy difficulties seen in school. It is also not clear whether the prediction of DD in pre-school children can be significantly improved when considering neurobiological predictors, compared to models based on behavioral literacy precursors only. We recruited 53 pre-reading children either with (N=25) or without a family risk of DD (N=28). Quantitative T1 MNI data and literacy precursor abilities were assessed at kindergarten age. A subsample of 35 children was tested for literacy skills either one or two years later, that is, either in first or second grade. The group comparison of quantitative T1 measures revealed significantly higher T1 intensities in the left anterior arcuate fascicle (AF), suggesting reduced myelin concentration in preliterate children at risk of DD. A logistic regression showed that DD can be predicted significantly better (p=.024) when neuroanatomical differences between groups are used as predictors (80%) compared to a model based on behavioral predictors only (63%). The Wald statistic confirmed that the T1 intensity of the left AF is a statistically significant predictor of DD (p<.05). Our longitudinal results provide evidence for the hypothesis that neuroanatomical anomalies in children with a family risk of DD are related to subsequent problems in acquiring literacy. Particularly, solid white matter organization in the left anterior arcuate fascicle seems to play a pivotal role. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Real-ear-to-coupler difference predictions as a function of age for two coupling procedures.

PubMed

Bagatto, Marlene P; Scollie, Susan D; Seewald, Richard C; Moodie, K Shane; Hoover, Brenda M

2002-09-01

The predicted real-ear-to-coupler difference (RECD) values currently used in pediatric hearing instrument prescription methods are based on 12-month age range categories and were derived from measures using standard acoustic immittance probe tips. Consequently, the purpose of this study was to develop normative RECD predicted values for foam/acoustic immittance tips and custom earmolds across the age continuum. To this end, RECD data were collected on 392 infants and children (141 with acoustic immittance tips, 251 with earmolds) to develop normative regression equations for use in deriving continuous age predictions of RECDs for foam/acoustic immittance tips and earmolds. Owing to the substantial between-subject variability observed in the data, the predictive equations of RECDs by age (in months) resulted in only gross estimates of RECD values (i.e., within +/- 4.4 dB for 95% of acoustic immittance tip measures; within +/- 5.4 dB in 95% of measures with custom earmolds) across frequency. Thus, it is concluded that the estimates derived from this study should not be used to replace the more precise individual RECD measurements. Relative to previously available normative RECD values for infants and young children, however, the estimates derived through this study provide somewhat more accurate predicted values for use under those circumstances for which individual RECD measurements cannot be made.

Do area characteristics predict change in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity from ages 11 to 15 years?

PubMed

Pabayo, Roman; Belsky, Jay; Gauvin, Lise; Curtis, Sarah

2011-02-01

In light of geographical and epidemiological research suggesting that the socioeconomic environment beyond the family may influence children's physical activity, this study investigated the extent to which neighbourhood socioeconomic conditions predict change in physical activity from ages 10 through 15 years, controlling for the attributes of the individual child and family. Data came from 889 children participating in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development cohort study. Accelerometers measured Moderate-to-Vigorous Physical Activity (MVPA) during the week and weekend, when the children were aged 10, 11, and 15 years. Selected US census block variables were used to create 'independent' area measures of economic deprivation and social fragmentation scores for child's area of residence at age 10 years. Also, parents' perception of neighbourhood social cohesion was measured in terms of relationships with neighbours. All analyses controlled for participant characteristics: gender, ethnicity, household income-to-needs ratio, maternal education, and for United States region of residence. Growth curve analyses indicated that whereas social fragmentation did not predict MVPA over time, greater area deprivation at age 10 years was associated with lower weekday MVPA for boys at 10 years (β=-0.5, p=0.03) and these differences persisted to age 11 and 15 years. This relationship was reversed for girls. Weekend MVPA was not significantly associated with the level of deprivation in the place of residence at age 10 years. Although the census measure of social fragmentation in the area of residence showed no significant association with MVPA, parent-reported neighbourhood social cohesion was positively associated with weekday (β=2.0, p<0.01) and weekend (β=3.1, p<0.01) MVPA minutes across time. This association was most pronounced for boys. Area level factors may be determinants of physical activity among

An Experimental Evaluation of Competing Age-Predictions of Future Time Perspective between Workplace and Retirement Domains

PubMed Central

Kerry, Matthew J.; Embretson, Susan E.

2018-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) is defined as “perceptions of the future as being limited or open-ended” (Lang and Carstensen, 2002; p. 125). The construct figures prominently in both workplace and retirement domains, but the age-predictions are competing: Workplace research predicts decreasing FTP age-change, in contrast, retirement scholars predict increasing FTP age-change. For the first time, these competing predictions are pitted in an experimental manipulation of subjective life expectancy (SLE). A sample of N = 207 older adults (age 45–60) working full-time (>30-h/week) were randomly assigned to SLE questions framed as either ‘Live-to’ or ‘Die-by’ to evaluate competing predictions for FTP. Results indicate general support for decreasing age-change in FTP, indicated by independent-sample t-tests showing lower FTP in the ‘Die-by’ framing condition. Further general-linear model analyses were conducted to test for interaction effects of retirement planning with experimental framings on FTP and intended retirement; While retirement planning buffered FTP’s decrease, simple-effects also revealed that retirement planning increased intentions for sooner retirement, but lack of planning increased intentions for later retirement. Discussion centers on practical implications of our findings and consequences validity evidence in future empirical research of FTP in both workplace and retirement domains. PMID:29375435

Frontostriatal anatomical connections predict age- and difficulty-related differences in reinforcement learning.

PubMed

van de Vijver, Irene; Ridderinkhof, K Richard; Harsay, Helga; Reneman, Liesbeth; Cavanagh, James F; Buitenweg, Jessika I V; Cohen, Michael X

2016-10-01

Reinforcement learning (RL) is supported by a network of striatal and frontal cortical structures that are connected through white-matter fiber bundles. With age, the integrity of these white-matter connections declines. The role of structural frontostriatal connectivity in individual and age-related differences in RL is unclear, although local white-matter density and diffusivity have been linked to individual differences in RL. Here we show that frontostriatal tract counts in young human adults (aged 18-28), as assessed noninvasively with diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging and probabilistic tractography, positively predicted individual differences in RL when learning was difficult (70% valid feedback). In older adults (aged 63-87), in contrast, learning under both easy (90% valid feedback) and difficult conditions was predicted by tract counts in the same frontostriatal network. Furthermore, network-level analyses showed a double dissociation between the task-relevant networks in young and older adults, suggesting that older adults relied on different frontostriatal networks than young adults to obtain the same task performance. These results highlight the importance of successful information integration across striatal and frontal regions during RL, especially with variable outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preschool Anxiety Disorders Predict Different Patterns of Amygdala-Prefrontal Connectivity at School-Age

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Kimberly L. H.; Angold, Adrian; Chen, Nan-Kuei; Copeland, William E.; Gaur, Pooja; Pelphrey, Kevin; Song, Allen W.; Egger, Helen L.

2015-01-01

Objective In this prospective, longitudinal study of young children, we examined whether a history of preschool generalized anxiety, separation anxiety, and/or social phobia is associated with amygdala-prefrontal dysregulation at school-age. As an exploratory analysis, we investigated whether distinct anxiety disorders differ in the patterns of this amygdala-prefrontal dysregulation. Methods Participants were children taking part in a 5-year study of early childhood brain development and anxiety disorders. Preschool symptoms of generalized anxiety, separation anxiety, and social phobia were assessed with the Preschool Age Psychiatric Assessment (PAPA) in the first wave of the study when the children were between 2 and 5 years old. The PAPA was repeated at age 6. We conducted functional MRIs when the children were 5.5 to 9.5 year old to assess neural responses to viewing of angry and fearful faces. Results A history of preschool social phobia predicted less school-age functional connectivity between the amygdala and the ventral prefrontal cortices to angry faces. Preschool generalized anxiety predicted less functional connectivity between the amygdala and dorsal prefrontal cortices in response to fearful faces. Finally, a history of preschool separation anxiety predicted less school-age functional connectivity between the amygdala and the ventral prefrontal cortices to angry faces and greater school-age functional connectivity between the amygdala and dorsal prefrontal cortices to angry faces. Conclusions Our results suggest that there are enduring neurobiological effects associated with a history of preschool anxiety, which occur over-and-above the effect of subsequent emotional symptoms. Our results also provide preliminary evidence for the neurobiological differentiation of specific preschool anxiety disorders. PMID:25625285

Significant interarm blood pressure difference predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: CoCoNet study.

PubMed

Kim, Su-A; Kim, Jang Young; Park, Jeong Bae

2016-06-01

There has been a rising interest in interarm blood pressure difference (IAD), due to its relationship with peripheral arterial disease and its possible relationship with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to characterize hypertensive patients with a significant IAD in relation to cardiovascular risk. A total of 3699 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11 years) were prospectively enrolled in the study. Blood pressure (BP) was measured simultaneously in both arms 3 times using an automated cuff-oscillometric device. IAD was defined as the absolute difference in averaged BPs between the left and right arm, and an IAD ≥ 10 mm Hg was considered to be significant. The Framingham risk score was used to calculate the 10-year cardiovascular risk. The mean systolic IAD (sIAD) was 4.3 ± 4.1 mm Hg, and 285 (7.7%) patients showed significant sIAD. Patients with significant sIAD showed larger body mass index (P < 0.001), greater systolic BP (P = 0.050), more coronary artery disease (relative risk = 1.356, P = 0.034), and more cerebrovascular disease (relative risk = 1.521, P = 0.072). The mean 10-year cardiovascular risk was 9.3 ± 7.7%. By multiple regression, sIAD was significantly but weakly correlated with the 10-year cardiovascular risk (β = 0.135, P = 0.008). Patients with significant sIAD showed a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, as well as an increase in 10-year cardiovascular risk. Therefore, accurate measurements of sIAD may serve as a simple and cost-effective tool for predicting cardiovascular risk in clinical settings.

Ageing increases reliance on sensorimotor prediction through structural and functional differences in frontostriatal circuits

PubMed Central

Wolpe, Noham; Ingram, James N.; Tsvetanov, Kamen A.; Geerligs, Linda; Kievit, Rogier A.; Henson, Richard N.; Wolpert, Daniel M.; Tyler, Lorraine K.; Brayne, Carol; Bullmore, Edward; Calder, Andrew; Cusack, Rhodri; Dalgleish, Tim; Duncan, John; Matthews, Fiona E.; Marslen-Wilson, William; Shafto, Meredith A.; Campbell, Karen; Cheung, Teresa; Davis, Simon; McCarrey, Anna; Mustafa, Abdur; Price, Darren; Samu, David; Taylor, Jason R.; Treder, Matthias; van Belle, Janna; Williams, Nitin; Bates, Lauren; Emery, Tina; Erzinçlioglu, Sharon; Gadie, Andrew; Gerbase, Sofia; Georgieva, Stanimira; Hanley, Claire; Parkin, Beth; Troy, David; Auer, Tibor; Correia, Marta; Gao, Lu; Green, Emma; Henriques, Rafael; Allen, Jodie; Amery, Gillian; Amunts, Liana; Barcroft, Anne; Castle, Amanda; Dias, Cheryl; Dowrick, Jonathan; Fair, Melissa; Fisher, Hayley; Goulding, Anna; Grewal, Adarsh; Hale, Geoff; Hilton, Andrew; Johnson, Frances; Johnston, Patricia; Kavanagh-Williamson, Thea; Kwasniewska, Magdalena; McMinn, Alison; Norman, Kim; Penrose, Jessica; Roby, Fiona; Rowland, Diane; Sargeant, John; Squire, Maggie; Stevens, Beth; Stoddart, Aldabra; Stone, Cheryl; Thompson, Tracy; Yazlik, Ozlem; Barnes, Dan; Dixon, Marie; Hillman, Jaya; Mitchell, Joanne; Villis, Laura; Rowe, James B.

2016-01-01

The control of voluntary movement changes markedly with age. A critical component of motor control is the integration of sensory information with predictions of the consequences of action, arising from internal models of movement. This leads to sensorimotor attenuation—a reduction in the perceived intensity of sensations from self-generated compared with external actions. Here we show that sensorimotor attenuation occurs in 98% of adults in a population-based cohort (n=325; 18–88 years; the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience). Importantly, attenuation increases with age, in proportion to reduced sensory sensitivity. This effect is associated with differences in the structure and functional connectivity of the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA), assessed with magnetic resonance imaging. The results suggest that ageing alters the balance between the sensorium and predictive models, mediated by the pre-SMA and its connectivity in frontostriatal circuits. This shift may contribute to the motor and cognitive changes observed with age. PMID:27694879

Ageing increases reliance on sensorimotor prediction through structural and functional differences in frontostriatal circuits.

PubMed

Wolpe, Noham; Ingram, James N; Tsvetanov, Kamen A; Geerligs, Linda; Kievit, Rogier A; Henson, Richard N; Wolpert, Daniel M; Rowe, James B

2016-10-03

The control of voluntary movement changes markedly with age. A critical component of motor control is the integration of sensory information with predictions of the consequences of action, arising from internal models of movement. This leads to sensorimotor attenuation-a reduction in the perceived intensity of sensations from self-generated compared with external actions. Here we show that sensorimotor attenuation occurs in 98% of adults in a population-based cohort (n=325; 18-88 years; the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience). Importantly, attenuation increases with age, in proportion to reduced sensory sensitivity. This effect is associated with differences in the structure and functional connectivity of the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA), assessed with magnetic resonance imaging. The results suggest that ageing alters the balance between the sensorium and predictive models, mediated by the pre-SMA and its connectivity in frontostriatal circuits. This shift may contribute to the motor and cognitive changes observed with age.

Concurrent and Predictive Validity of Parent Reports of Child Language at Ages 2 and 3 Years

PubMed Central

Campbell, Thomas F.; Kurs-Lasky, Marcia; Rockette, Howard E.; Dale, Philip S.; Colborn, D. Kathleen; Paradise, Jack L.

2005-01-01

The MacArthur–Bates Communicative Development Inventories (CDI; Dale, 1996; Fenson et al., 1994), parent reports about language skills, are being used increasingly in studies of theoretical and public health importance. This study (N = 113) correlated scores on the CDI at ages 2 and 3 years with scores at age 3 years on tests of cognition and receptive language and measures from parent–child conversation. Associations indicated reasonable concurrent and predictive validity. The findings suggest that satisfactory vocabulary scores at age 2 are likely to predict normal language skills at age 3, although some children with limited skills at age 3 will have had satisfactory scores at age 2. Many children with poor vocabulary scores at 2 will have normal skills at 3. PMID:16026501

Diagnostic Dilemma for Low Viremia with Significant Fibrosis; Is HBV DNA Threshold Level a Good Indicator for Predicting Liver Damage?

PubMed

Yenilmez, Ercan; Çetinkaya, Rıza Aytaç; Tural, Ersin

2018-05-04

The most important difficulties about management of hepatitis B are still determining the liver damage and the right time to start antiviral therapy. To reveal the role of hepatitis B virus DNA threshold level for prediction of liver fibrosis and inflammation in young-aged hepatitis B e antigen negative chronic hepatitis B patients. Diagnostic accuracy study. A total of 273 hepatitis B e antigen negative young chronic hepatitis B patients with any hepatitis B virus DNA levels between 2008 and 2016, who had liver biopsy after at least 6 months follow up period, enrolled in this retrospective study. We created two groups as case and control, cases with hepatitis B virus DNA levels below 2.000 IU/mL and controls with hepatitis B virus DNA levels over 2.000 IU/mL. Having histological activity index ≥4 or/and fibrosis scores ≥2 were defined as significant histological abnormality. Then, we analyzed the relationship between these groups. We showed that significant fibrosis may occur in one third of young chronic hepatitis B patients with low viremia (30.2%, n=42/139 in cases, %55.2, n=74/134 in controls). Among the 42 cases with low viremia and significant fibrosis, 21.4% had alanine aminotransferase level between 40-59 U/L, 42.8% had alanine aminotransferase level between 60-79 U/L, and 35.7% had alanine aminotransferase level over 80 U/L. There was weak correlation between hepatitis B virus DNA threshold level and fibrosis score (p=0.000, rho=0.253). The optimum serum hepatitis B virus DNA threshold level in our study for predicting significant fibrosis was 1293 IU/mL (p=0.00, AUC: 0.657±0.034). The optimum alanine aminotransferase threshold level for predicting significant histological activity index and fibrosis was 64.5 and 59.5 U/L, respectively. The sensitivity and the specificity of 1293 vs 2000 IU/mL hepatitis B virus DNA threshold with 60 U/L alanine aminotransferase threshold level for predicting F≥2 fibrosis score were similar (sensitivity: 0.43 and 0

Predicting the Functional Impact of KCNQ1 Variants of Unknown Significance.

PubMed

Li, Bian; Mendenhall, Jeffrey L; Kroncke, Brett M; Taylor, Keenan C; Huang, Hui; Smith, Derek K; Vanoye, Carlos G; Blume, Jeffrey D; George, Alfred L; Sanders, Charles R; Meiler, Jens

2017-10-01

An emerging standard-of-care for long-QT syndrome uses clinical genetic testing to identify genetic variants of the KCNQ1 potassium channel. However, interpreting results from genetic testing is confounded by the presence of variants of unknown significance for which there is inadequate evidence of pathogenicity. In this study, we curated from the literature a high-quality set of 107 functionally characterized KCNQ1 variants. Based on this data set, we completed a detailed quantitative analysis on the sequence conservation patterns of subdomains of KCNQ1 and the distribution of pathogenic variants therein. We found that conserved subdomains generally are critical for channel function and are enriched with dysfunctional variants. Using this experimentally validated data set, we trained a neural network, designated Q1VarPred, specifically for predicting the functional impact of KCNQ1 variants of unknown significance. The estimated predictive performance of Q1VarPred in terms of Matthew's correlation coefficient and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.581 and 0.884, respectively, superior to the performance of 8 previous methods tested in parallel. Q1VarPred is publicly available as a web server at http://meilerlab.org/q1varpred. Although a plethora of tools are available for making pathogenicity predictions over a genome-wide scale, previous tools fail to perform in a robust manner when applied to KCNQ1. The contrasting and favorable results for Q1VarPred suggest a promising approach, where a machine-learning algorithm is tailored to a specific protein target and trained with a functionally validated data set to calibrate informatics tools. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

L-carnitine significantly decreased aging of rat adipose tissue-derived mesenchymal stem cells.

PubMed

Mobarak, Halimeh; Fathi, Ezzatollah; Farahzadi, Raheleh; Zarghami, Nosratollah; Javanmardi, Sara

2017-03-01

Mesenchymal stem cells are undifferentiated cells that have the ability to divide continuously and tissue regeneration potential during the transplantation. Aging and loss of cell survival, is one of the main problems in cell therapy. Since the production of free radicals in the aging process is effective, the use of antioxidant compounds can help in scavenging free radicals and prevent the aging of cells. The aim of this study is evaluate the effects of L-carnitine (LC) on proliferation and aging of rat adipose tissue-derived mesenchymal stem cells (rADSC). rADSCs were isolated from inguinal region of 5 male Rattus rats. Oil red-O, alizarin red-S and toluidine blue staining were performed to evaluate the adipogenic, osteogenic and chondrogenic differentiation of rADSCs, respectively. Flow cytometric analysis was done for investigating the cell surface markers. The methyl thiazol tetrazolium (MTT) method was used to determine the cell proliferation of rADSCs following exposure to different concentrations of LC. rADSCs aging was evaluated by beta-galactosidase staining. The results showed significant proliferation of rADSCs 48 h after treatment with concentrations of 0.2 mM LC. In addition, in the presence of 0.2 mM LC, rADSCs appeared to be growing faster than control group and 0.2 mM LC supplementation could significantly decrease the population doubling time and aging of rADSCs. It seems that LC would be a good antioxidant to improve lifespan of rADSCs due to the decrease in aging.

The ability of an electrocardiogram to predict fatal and non-fatal cardiac events in asymptomatic middle-aged subjects.

PubMed

Terho, Henri K; Tikkanen, Jani T; Kenttä, Tuomas V; Junttila, M Juhani; Aro, Aapo L; Anttonen, Olli; Kerola, Tuomas; Rissanen, Harri A; Knekt, Paul; Reunanen, Antti; Huikuri, Heikki V

2016-11-01

The long-term prognostic value of a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) for predicting cardiac events in apparently healthy middle-aged subjects is not well defined. A total of 9511 middle-aged subjects (mean age 43 ± 8.2 years, 52% males) without a known cardiac disease and with a follow-up 40 years were included in the study. Fatal and non-fatal cardiac events were collected from the national registries. The predictive value of ECG was separately analyzed for 10 and 30 years. Major ECG abnormalities were classified according to the Minnesota code. Subjects with major ECG abnormalities (N = 1131) had an increased risk of cardiac death after 10-years (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.7; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.1-2.5, p = 0.009) and 30-years of follow-up (HR 1.3, 95% CI, 1.1-1.5, p < 0.001). Model discrimination measured with the C-index showed only a minor improvement with the inclusion of ECG abnormalities: 0.851 versus 0.853 and 0.742 versus 0.743 for 10- and 30-year follow-up, respectively. ECG did not predict non-fatal cardiac events after 10-years or 30-years of follow-up. Major ECG abnormalities are associated with an increased risk of short and long-term cardiac mortality in middle-aged subjects. However, the improvement in discrimination between subjects with and without fatal cardiac events was marginal with abnormal ECG. Abnormalities observed on 12-lead electrocardiogram are shown to have prognostic significance for cardiac events in elderly subjects without known cardiac disease. Our results suggest that ECG abnormalities increase the risk of fatal cardiac events also in middle-aged healthy subjects.

Digital radiographic evaluation of hand-wrist bone maturation and prediction of age in South Indian adolescents.

PubMed

Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Reddy, M Asha Lata; Jain, Megha; Singh, Johar Rajvinder; Sanghvi, Praveen; Thetay, Anshuj Ajay Rao

2014-09-01

In the growing years, indicators of the level of maturational development of the individual provide the best means for evaluating biologic age and the associated timing of skeletal growth. The relative stage of maturity of a child may be determined by comparing the child's hand-wrist radiograph to the known standards of skeletal development. In this study, we assessed various levels of skeletal maturation and also identified the relationship between chronological age (CA) and maturation stage using the hand-wrist radiographs in adolescents of Indian origin. Three hundred and thirty hand-wrist digital radiographs of individuals aged 8 to 18 years were evaluated for skeletal maturity levels using Fishman's method. The data was analysed using the SPSS software package (version 12, SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Regression analysis was performed for calculating bone age of both males and females. Spearman's rank-order correlation coefficients were estimated separately for males and females to assess the relation between CA and maturation level. An association between skeletal maturation indicator stages and CA (r = 0.82) was significant. Interestingly, female subjects were observed to be advanced in skeletal maturity compared to males. Regression equations were derived to calculate bone age in males, females and the whole sample. The results of this study showed significant association between hand-wrist skeletal maturation levels and CA. Digital radiographic assessment of hand-wrist skeletal maturation can be used as a better choice for predicting average bone age of an individual because of its simplicity, reliability and lesser radiation exposure.

Uncertainty in Predicting CCN Activity of Aged and Primary Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fang; Wang, Yuying; Peng, Jianfei; Ren, Jingye; Collins, Don; Zhang, Renyi; Sun, Yele; Yang, Xin; Li, Zhanqing

2017-11-01

Understanding particle CCN activity in diverse atmospheres is crucial when evaluating aerosol indirect effects. Here aerosols measured at three sites in China were categorized as different types for attributing uncertainties in CCN prediction in terms of a comprehensive data set including size-resolved CCN activity, size-resolved hygroscopic growth factor, and chemical composition. We show that CCN activity for aged aerosols is unexpectedly underestimated 22% at a supersaturation (S) of 0.2% when using κ-Kohler theory with an assumption of an internal mixture with measured bulk composition that has typically resulted in an overestimate of the CCN activity in previous studies. We conclude that the underestimation stems from neglect of the effect of aging/coating on particle hygroscopicity, which is not considered properly in most current models. This effect enhanced the hygroscopicity parameter (κ) by between 11% (polluted conditions) and 30% (clean days), as indicated in diurnal cycles of κ based on measurements by different instruments. In the urban Beijing atmosphere heavily influenced by fresh emissions, the CCN activity was overestimated by 45% at S = 0.2%, likely because of inaccurate assumptions of particle mixing state and because of variability of chemical composition over the particle size range. For both fresh and aged aerosols, CCN prediction exhibits very limited sensitivity to κSOA, implying a critical role of other factors like mixing of aerosol components within and between particles in regulating CCN activity. Our findings could help improving CCN parameterization in climate models.

Investigating the impact of age-depended hair colour darkening during childhood on DNA-based hair colour prediction with the HIrisPlex system.

PubMed

Kukla-Bartoszek, Magdalena; Pośpiech, Ewelina; Spólnicka, Magdalena; Karłowska-Pik, Joanna; Strapagiel, Dominik; Żądzińska, Elżbieta; Rosset, Iwona; Sobalska-Kwapis, Marta; Słomka, Marcin; Walsh, Susan; Kayser, Manfred; Sitek, Aneta; Branicki, Wojciech

2018-06-06

Predictive DNA analysis of externally visible characteristics exerts an increasing influence on contemporary forensic and anthropological investigations, with pigmentation traits currently being the most advanced for predictive modelling. Since pigmentation prediction error in some cases may be due to the result of age-related hair colour darkening, and sex influence in eye colour, this study aims to investigate these less explored phenomena on a group of juvenile individuals. Pigmentation phenotypes of children between the age of 6-13 years old were evaluated, in addition to data about their hair colour during early childhood from a select number of these individuals. The HIrisPlex models for DNA-based eye and hair colour prediction were used with input from SNP genotyping using massive parallel sequencing. Analysis of the total group of 476 children showed high accuracy in blue (AUC = 0.89) and brown (AUC = 0.91) eye colour prediction, while hair colour was predicted with AUC = 0.64 for blond, AUC = 0.64 for brown and AUC = 0.97 for red. 70.8% (n = 143) of the total number of children phenotypically blond for hair colour during early childhood progressed to brown during advanced childhood. In 70.6% (n = 101) of those cases, an incorrect blond hair prediction was made during the time of analysis. A noticeable decline in AUC values for blond (from 0.76 to 0.65) and brown (from 0.72 to 0.64) were observed when comparing hair colour prediction outcomes for the phenotypes recorded for the two different time points (at the age of 2-3 and 6-13). The number of incorrect blond hair colour predictions was significantly higher in children with brown hair at age 6-13 who were blond at early childhood (n = 47, 32.9%), relative to children who had brown hair at both time points (n = 6, 9.4%). However, in 28.0% (n = 40) of children who did experience hair colour darkening, HIrisPlex provided the correct prediction for the darkened hair

Measured maximal heart rates compared to commonly used age-based prediction equations in the Heritage Family Study.

PubMed

Sarzynski, M A; Rankinen, T; Earnest, C P; Leon, A S; Rao, D C; Skinner, J S; Bouchard, C

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine how well two commonly used age-based prediction equations for maximal heart rate (HRmax ) estimate the actual HRmax measured in Black and White adults from the HERITAGE Family Study. A total of 762 sedentary subjects (39% Black, 57% Females) from HERITAGE were included. HRmax was measured during maximal exercise tests using cycle ergometers. Age-based HRmax was predicted using the Fox (220-age) and Tanaka (208 - 0.7 × age) formulas. The standard error of estimate (SEE) of predicted HRmax was 12.4 and 11.4 bpm for the Fox and Tanaka formulas, respectively, indicating a wide-spread of measured-HRmax values are compared to their age-predicted values. The SEE (shown as Fox/Tanaka) was higher in Blacks (14.4/13.1 bpm) and Males (12.6/11.7 bpm) compared to Whites (11.0/10.2 bpm) and Females (12.3/11.2 bpm) for both formulas. The SEE was higher in subjects above the BMI median (12.8/11.9 bpm) and below the fitness median (13.4/12.4 bpm) when compared to those below the BMI median (12.2/11.0 bpm) and above the fitness median (11.4/10.3) for both formulas. Our findings show that based on the SEE, the prevailing age-based estimated HRmax equations do not precisely predict an individual's measured-HRmax . Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

ALDOSTERONE DYSREGULATION WITH AGING PREDICTS RENAL-VASCULAR FUNCTION AND CARDIO-VASCULAR RISK

PubMed Central

Brown, Jenifer M.; Underwood, Patricia C.; Ferri, Claudio; Hopkins, Paul N.; Williams, Gordon H.; Adler, Gail K.; Vaidya, Anand

2014-01-01

Aging and abnormal aldosterone regulation are both associated with vascular disease. We hypothesized that aldosterone dysregulation influences the age-related risk of renal- and cardio-vascular disease. We conducted an analysis of 562 subjects who underwent detailed investigations under conditions of liberal and restricted dietary sodium intake (1,124 visits) in a Clinical Research Center. Aldosterone regulation was characterized by the ratio of maximal suppression-to-stimulation (supine serum aldosterone on a liberal sodium diet divided by the same measure on a restricted sodium diet). We previously demonstrated that higher levels of this Sodium-modulated Aldosterone Suppression-Stimulation Index (SASSI) indicate greater aldosterone dysregulation. Renal plasma flow (RPF) was determined via p-aminohippurate clearance to assess basal renal hemodynamics, and the renal-vascular responses to dietary sodium manipulation and angiotensin II (AngII) infusion. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the Framingham Risk Score. In univariate linear regression, older age (β= -4.60, p<0.0001) and higher SASSI (β= -58.63, p=0.001) predicted lower RPF and a blunted RPF response to sodium loading and AngII infusion. We observed a continuous, independent, multivariate-adjusted interaction between age and SASSI, where the inverse relationship between SASSI and RPF was most apparent with older age (p<0.05). Higher SASSI and lower RPF independently predicted higher Framingham Risk Score (p<0.0001) and together displayed an additive effect. Aldosterone regulation and age may interact to mediate renal-vascular disease. Our findings suggest that the combination of aldosterone dysregulation and renal-vascular dysfunction could additively increase the risk of future cardiovascular outcomes; therefore, aldosterone dysregulation may represent a modifiable mechanism of age-related vascular disease. PMID:24664291

Variation and Grey GM(1, 1) Prediction of Melting Peak Temperature of Polypropylene During Ultraviolet Radiation Aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, K.; Y Zhang, T.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, Z. R.

2017-12-01

Grey system theory regards uncertain system in which information is known partly and unknown partly as research object, extracts useful information from part known, and thereby revealing the potential variation rule of the system. In order to research the applicability of data-driven modelling method in melting peak temperature (T m) fitting and prediction of polypropylene (PP) during ultraviolet radiation aging, the T m of homo-polypropylene after different ultraviolet radiation exposure time investigated by differential scanning calorimeter was fitted and predicted by grey GM(1, 1) model based on grey system theory. The results show that the T m of PP declines with the prolong of aging time, and fitting and prediction equation obtained by grey GM(1, 1) model is T m = 166.567472exp(-0.00012t). Fitting effect of the above equation is excellent and the maximum relative error between prediction value and actual value of T m is 0.32%. Grey system theory needs less original data, has high prediction accuracy, and can be used to predict aging behaviour of PP.

The predictive effect of inflammatory markers and lipid accumulation product index on clinical symptoms associated with polycystic ovary syndrome in nonobese adolescents and younger aged women.

PubMed

Tola, Esra Nur; Yalcin, Serenat Eris; Dugan, Nadiye

2017-07-01

The aim of our study is to analyse the inflammatory markers and lipid accumulation product (LAP) index in nonobese adolescents and younger aged women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) compared with age and body mass index (BMI)-matched healthy controls and to determine whether the investigated parameters are potential markers for the etiopathogenesis of PCOS. We also aim to determine whether these inflammatory markers are predictive for developing some clinical implications, such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and insulin resistance (IR), associated with PCOS. A total of 34 adolescents and younger aged females with PCOS, and 33 age and BMI-matched healthy controls were recruited for our study. All participants were nonobese (BMI<25). Neopterin (NEO), C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and complete blood parameters were assessed. LAP index and homeostasis model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR) were calculated; anthropometric, clinical and biochemical parameters were also recorded. Serum NEO, CRP levels and LAP index were significantly increased in nonobese adolescents and younger aged females with PCOS compared to healthy controls. We could not found any predictive effect of investigated inflammatory markers and LAP index on CVD risk among PCOS patients after adjustment for abdominal obesity. We also found a positive predictive effect of WBC and a negative predictive effect of lymphocytes on IR in PCOS patients after adjustment for abdominal obesity. We did not find any predictor effect of NEO on IR, but it was a positive predictive marker for an elevated HOMA-IR index. Elevated NEO, CRP levels and LAP index could have potential roles in the etiopathogenesis of PCOS in nonobese adolescents and younger aged females,NEO could be a predictive marker for elevated HOMA-IR index, and WBC and lymphocytes could be predictive for the development of IR among nonobese adolescents and younger aged females with PCOS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The significance of eosinophils in predicting the severity of acute ischemic stroke

PubMed Central

Wang, Jun; Ma, Li; Lin, Tao; Li, Shi-Jing; Chen, Lei-Lei; Wang, De-Zhao

2017-01-01

Background Previous studies have shown that tumor-associated tissue eosinophilia have a role in various types of solid tumors. However, the relationship between eosinophil and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is unclear. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic significance of eosinophil in AIS patients. Methods This study included 300 AIS patients without hypereosinophilic syndrome (HES). The hematologic indices were collected from each patient, including white blood count, eosinophil count, eosinophil percentage, neutrophil count, red blood count, and platelet. The severity of AIS was estimated by national institute of health stroke scale (NIHSS). Logistic regression analyses were performed to confirm the biomarkers for NIHSS and in-hospital non-death among the cases. Moreover, receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were used to investigate the clinical performances of eosinophils and NIHSS in prediction of non-death. Results The admission NIHSS (P<0.001) and BMI (P<0.001) were predictors to the non-death of the patients. There was a significant correlation between eosinophil counts or eosinophil percentage and NIHSS score (r= -0.451, P < 0.001; r= -0.617, P<0.001, Spearson Correlation). ROC analysis showed that eosinophil counts and eosinophil percentage could predict non-death of the patients in-hospital, with the areas under the curves (AUC) of 0.791 and 0.867, respectively. Conclusions Our study revealed a relationship between eosinophil and NIHSS score in the patients with AIS. Eosinophils might have certain value for predicting the severity of AIS. PMID:29262636

Predicting age at menopause from serum antimüllerian hormone concentration.

PubMed

Tehrani, Fahimeh Ramezani; Shakeri, Nezhat; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Azizi, Fereidoun

2011-07-01

We aimed to estimate age at menopause using serum antimüllerian hormone (AMH) concentration. We randomly selected 266 study participants from a pool of 1,265 eligible women in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study cohort. We measured AMH levels three times at about 3-year intervals. There were 63 occurrences of menopause in our participants over an average of 6-year follow-up. We built an accelerated failure time model using serum AMH level at the start of follow-up to estimate age at menopause. The goodness of fit for the model was tested using Cox-Snell residuals and the Bland-Altman plot. We estimated ages at menopause for different levels of serum AMH concentration among women aged 20 to 49 years. For those who reached menopause, serum AMH concentrations about 6 years before the event provided fairly accurate estimates of the age at menopause. The Bland-Altman plot showed an acceptable agreement between predicted and observed values. Serum AMH concentrations can reasonably forecast the age at menopause for individual women.

The significance of parameter uncertainties for the prediction of offshore pile driving noise.

PubMed

Lippert, Tristan; von Estorff, Otto

2014-11-01

Due to the construction of offshore wind farms and its potential effect on marine wildlife, the numerical prediction of pile driving noise over long ranges has recently gained importance. In this contribution, a coupled finite element/wavenumber integration model for noise prediction is presented and validated by measurements. The ocean environment, especially the sea bottom, can only be characterized with limited accuracy in terms of input parameters for the numerical model at hand. Therefore the effect of these parameter uncertainties on the prediction of sound pressure levels (SPLs) in the water column is investigated by a probabilistic approach. In fact, a variation of the bottom material parameters by means of Monte-Carlo simulations shows significant effects on the predicted SPLs. A sensitivity analysis of the model with respect to the single quantities is performed, as well as a global variation. Based on the latter, the probability distribution of the SPLs at an exemplary receiver position is evaluated and compared to measurements. The aim of this procedure is to develop a model to reliably predict an interval for the SPLs, by quantifying the degree of uncertainty of the SPLs with the MC simulations.

Age at onset of first signs or symptoms predicts age at loss of ambulation in Duchenne and Becker Muscular Dystrophy: Data from the MD STARnet.

PubMed

Ciafaloni, Emma; Kumar, Anil; Liu, Ke; Pandya, Shree; Westfield, Christina; Fox, Deborah J; Caspers Conway, Kristin M; Cunniff, Christopher; Mathews, Katherine; West, Nancy; Romitti, Paul A; McDermott, Michael P

2016-01-01

We investigated the prognostic utility of onset age at first signs and symptoms (SS) to predict onset age at loss of ambulation (LOA) for childhood-onset Duchenne and Becker Muscular Dystrophies (DBMD). Our cohort comprised male cases with DBMD ascertained by the population-based Muscular Dystrophy Surveillance, Tracking, and Research Network (MD STARnet). Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models for associations between onset ages of first SS and LOA. Covariates controlled for were corticosteroid use, family history of DBMD, birth year, race/ethnicity, and MD STARnet site. Onset age at first SS was considered as a continuous and as a categorical variable. A one-year increase in onset age at first SS was significantly associated with a 10% reduction in annual risk of LOA (HR = 0.90, CI = 0.87-0.94). Treating onset age at first SS as a categorical variable yielded a similar association (≥ 5 years: referent; ≥ 3 to < 5 years: HR = 1.36, CI = 1.02-1.81; 18 months to < 3 years: HR = 1.72, CI = 1.31-2.26; < 18 months: HR = 1.52, CI = 1.14-2.02). Earlier onset age at first SS is associated with earlier onset age at LOA and may have clinical utility in differentiating childhood-onset Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophies.

Space shuttle nonmetallic materials age life prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mendenhall, G. D.; Hassell, J. A.; Nathan, R. A.

1975-01-01

The chemiluminescence from samples of polybutadiene, Viton, Teflon, Silicone, PL 731 Adhesive, and SP 296 Boron-Epoxy composite was measured at temperatures from 25 to 150 C. Excellent correlations were obtained between chemiluminescence and temperature. These correlations serve to validate accelerated aging tests (at elevated temperatures) designed to predict service life at lower temperatures. In most cases, smooth or linear correlations were obtained between chemiluminescence and physical properties of purified polymer gums, including the tensile strength, viscosity, and loss tangent. The latter is a complex function of certain polymer properties. Data were obtained with far greater ease by the chemiluminescence technique than by the conventional methods of study. The chemiluminescence from the Teflon (Halon) samples was discovered to arise from trace amounts of impurities, which were undetectable by conventional, destructive analysis of the sample.

Whole-brain grey matter density predicts balance stability irrespective of age and protects older adults from falling.

PubMed

Boisgontier, Matthieu P; Cheval, Boris; van Ruitenbeek, Peter; Levin, Oron; Renaud, Olivier; Chanal, Julien; Swinnen, Stephan P

2016-03-01

Functional and structural imaging studies have demonstrated the involvement of the brain in balance control. Nevertheless, how decisive grey matter density and white matter microstructural organisation are in predicting balance stability, and especially when linked to the effects of ageing, remains unclear. Standing balance was tested on a platform moving at different frequencies and amplitudes in 30 young and 30 older adults, with eyes open and with eyes closed. Centre of pressure variance was used as an indicator of balance instability. The mean density of grey matter and mean white matter microstructural organisation were measured using voxel-based morphometry and diffusion tensor imaging, respectively. Mixed-effects models were built to analyse the extent to which age, grey matter density, and white matter microstructural organisation predicted balance instability. Results showed that both grey matter density and age independently predicted balance instability. These predictions were reinforced when the level of difficulty of the conditions increased. Furthermore, grey matter predicted balance instability beyond age and at least as consistently as age across conditions. In other words, for balance stability, the level of whole-brain grey matter density is at least as decisive as being young or old. Finally, brain grey matter appeared to be protective against falls in older adults as age increased the probability of losing balance in older adults with low, but not moderate or high grey matter density. No such results were observed for white matter microstructural organisation, thereby reinforcing the specificity of our grey matter findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

AREDS simplified severity scale as a predictive factor for response to aflibercept therapy for typical neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Sakurada, Yoichi; Kikushima, Wataru; Sugiyama, Atsushi; Yoneyama, Seigo; Tanabe, Naohiko; Matsubara, Mio; Iijima, Hiroyuki

2018-01-01

To investigate whether the severity of the condition in the untreated fellow eye is a predictive factor for the response to intravitreal aflibercept injection (IAI) for exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD). A retrospective medical chart review was conducted for 88 patients with treatment-naïve neovascular AMD, who were initially treated with three monthly IAIs, followed by monthly monitoring and re-injection as needed for at least 12 months. Subjects were classified into three groups according to the severity of the condition in their untreated eye, based on the severity scale in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS): group 0, AREDS severity level 1 (no drusen); group 1, AREDS severity level 2 or 3 (any drusen); group 2, AREDS severity level 4 (advanced AMD). Genotyping was performed in all cases for ARMS2 A69S and CFH I62V. Fellow-eye severity was associated with age and the risk variant of ARMS2 A69S (P = 0.005 and 0.001, respectively). Although best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) had improved significantly after 12 months in all groups, this improvement was significantly greater in group 0 than in the other groups (P = 0.008). The retreatment-free period was also significantly longer for group 0 than for the other groups (P = 0.016), and the number of additional injections was significantly associated with fellow-eye severity (P = 0.007). Fellow-eye severity was associated with treatment response in terms of visual improvement and retreatment and may be a predictive factor for response to IAI for neovascular AMD.

A prediction model for cognitive performance in health ageing using diffusion tensor imaging with graph theory.

PubMed

Yun, Ruijuan; Lin, Chung-Chih; Wu, Shuicai; Huang, Chu-Chung; Lin, Ching-Po; Chao, Yi-Ping

2013-01-01

In this study, we employed diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to construct brain structural network and then derive the connection matrices from 96 healthy elderly subjects. The correlation analysis between these topological properties of network based on graph theory and the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI) index were processed to extract the significant network characteristics. These characteristics were then integrated to estimate the models by various machine-learning algorithms to predict user's cognitive performance. From the results, linear regression model and Gaussian processes model showed presented better abilities with lower mean absolute errors of 5.8120 and 6.25 to predict the cognitive performance respectively. Moreover, these extracted topological properties of brain structural network derived from DTI also could be regarded as the bio-signatures for further evaluation of brain degeneration in healthy aged and early diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

Predictive value of age for coping: the role of self-efficacy, social support satisfaction and perceived stress.

PubMed

Trouillet, Raphaël; Gana, Kamel; Lourel, Marcel; Fort, Isabelle

2009-05-01

The present study was prompted by the lack of agreement on how coping changes with age. We postulate that the effect of age on coping is mediated by coping resources, such as self-efficacy, perceived stress and social support satisfaction. The participants in the study were community dwelling and aged between 22 and 88 years old. Data were collected using the General Self Efficacy Scale, the Social Support Questionnaire, the Perceived Stress Scale, the Geriatric Depression Scale, the Social Readjustment Rating Scale (life-events) and the Way of Coping Checklist. We performed path analyses for two competitive structural models: M1 (age does not directly affect coping processes) and M2 (age directly affects coping processes). Our results supported a modified version of M2. Age was not found to predict either of two coping strategies: problem-focused coping is predicted by self-efficacy and social support satisfaction; emotion-focused coping is predicted by social support satisfaction and perceived stress. Changes in coping over the lifespan reflect the effectiveness with which a person's adaptive processes deal with age-associated changes in self-referred beliefs and environment perception.

Adult age differences in subjective and objective measures of strategy use on a sequentially cued prediction task

PubMed Central

Seaman, Kendra L.; Howard, Darlene V.; Howard, James H.

2015-01-01

Differences in strategy use are thought to underlie age-related performance deficits on many learning and decision-making tasks. Recently, age-related differences in learning to make predictions were reported on the Triplets Prediction Task (TPT; Seaman, Howard & Howard, 2013). Notably, deficits appeared early in training and continued with experience. To assess if age differences were due to early strategy use, neural networks were used to objectively assess the strategies implemented by participants during Session 1. Then the relationship between these strategies and performance was examined. Results revealed that older adults were more likely to implement a disadvantageous strategy early in learning, and this led to poorer task performance. Importantly the relationship between age and task performance was partially mediated by early strategy use, suggesting that early strategy selection played a role in the lower quality of predictions in older adults. PMID:24673615

“Teens are from Mars, Adults are from Venus”: Analyzing and Predicting Age Groups with Behavioral Characteristics in Instagram

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Kyungsik; Lee, Sanghack; Jang, Jin

We present behavioral characteristics of teens and adults in Instagram and prediction of them from their behaviors. Based on two independently created datasets from user profiles and tags, we identify teens and adults, and carry out comparative analyses on their online behaviors. Our study reveals: (1) significant behavioral differences between two age groups; (2) the empirical evidence of classifying teens and adults with up to 82% accuracy, using traditional predictive models, while two baseline methods achieve 68% at best; and (3) the robustness of our models by achieving 76%—81% when tested against an independent dataset obtained without using user profilesmore » or tags.« less

Can Functional Cardiac Age be Predicted from ECG in a Normal Healthy Population

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlegel, Todd; Starc, Vito; Leban, Manja; Sinigoj, Petra; Vrhovec, Milos

2011-01-01

In a normal healthy population, we desired to determine the most age-dependent conventional and advanced ECG parameters. We hypothesized that changes in several ECG parameters might correlate with age and together reliably characterize the functional age of the heart. Methods: An initial study population of 313 apparently healthy subjects was ultimately reduced to 148 subjects (74 men, 84 women, in the range from 10 to 75 years of age) after exclusion criteria. In all subjects, ECG recordings (resting 5-minute 12-lead high frequency ECG) were evaluated via custom software programs to calculate up to 85 different conventional and advanced ECG parameters including beat-to-beat QT and RR variability, waveform complexity, and signal-averaged, high-frequency and spatial/spatiotemporal ECG parameters. The prediction of functional age was evaluated by multiple linear regression analysis using the best 5 univariate predictors. Results: Ignoring what were ultimately small differences between males and females, the functional age was found to be predicted (R2= 0.69, P < 0.001) from a linear combination of 5 independent variables: QRS elevation in the frontal plane (p<0.001), a new repolarization parameter QTcorr (p<0.001), mean high frequency QRS amplitude (p=0.009), the variability parameter % VLF of RRV (p=0.021) and the P-wave width (p=0.10). Here, QTcorr represents the correlation between the calculated QT and the measured QT signal. Conclusions: In apparently healthy subjects with normal conventional ECGs, functional cardiac age can be estimated by multiple linear regression analysis of mostly advanced ECG results. Because some parameters in the regression formula, such as QTcorr, high frequency QRS amplitude and P-wave width also change with disease in the same direction as with increased age, increased functional age of the heart may reflect subtle age-related pathologies in cardiac electrical function that are usually hidden on conventional ECG.

The Influence of Age and Sexual Drive on the Predictive Validity of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-Revised.

PubMed

Wijetunga, Charity; Martinez, Ricardo; Rosenfeld, Barry; Cruise, Keith

2018-01-01

The Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-Revised (J-SOAP-II) is the most commonly used measure in the assessment of recidivism risk among juveniles who have committed sexual offenses (JSOs), but mixed support exists for its predictive validity. This study compared the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II across two offender characteristics, age and sexual drive, in a sample of 156 JSOs who had been discharged from a correctional facility or a residential treatment program. The J-SOAP-II appeared to be a better predictor of sexual recidivism for younger JSOs (14-16 years old) than for older ones (17-19 years old), with significant differences found for the Dynamic Summary Scale and Scale III (Intervention). In addition, several of the measure's scales significantly predicted sexual recidivism for JSOs with a clear pattern of sexualized behavior but not for those without such a pattern, indicating that the J-SOAP-II may have greater clinical utility for JSOs with heightened sexual drive. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Thermo-mechanical simulations of early-age concrete cracking with durability predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havlásek, Petr; Šmilauer, Vít; Hájková, Karolina; Baquerizo, Luis

2017-09-01

Concrete performance is strongly affected by mix design, thermal boundary conditions, its evolving mechanical properties, and internal/external restraints with consequences to possible cracking with impaired durability. Thermo-mechanical simulations are able to capture those relevant phenomena and boundary conditions for predicting temperature, strains, stresses or cracking in reinforced concrete structures. In this paper, we propose a weakly coupled thermo-mechanical model for early age concrete with an affinity-based hydration model for thermal part, taking into account concrete mix design, cement type and thermal boundary conditions. The mechanical part uses B3/B4 model for concrete creep and shrinkage with isotropic damage model for cracking, able to predict a crack width. All models have been implemented in an open-source OOFEM software package. Validations of thermo-mechanical simulations will be presented on several massive concrete structures, showing excellent temperature predictions. Likewise, strain validation demonstrates good predictions on a restrained reinforced concrete wall and concrete beam. Durability predictions stem from induction time of reinforcement corrosion, caused by carbonation and/or chloride ingress influenced by crack width. Reinforcement corrosion in concrete struts of a bridge will serve for validation.

The Prediction of Long-Term Thermal Aging in Cast Austenitic Stainless Steel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Byun, Thak Sang; Yang, Ying; Lach, Timothy G.

Cast austenitic stainless steel (CASS) materials are extensively used for many massive primary coolant system components of light water reactors (LWRs) including coolant piping, valve bodies, pump casings, and piping elbows. Many of these components are operated in complex and persistently damaging environments of elevated temperature, high pressure, corrosive environment, and sometimes radiation for long periods of time. Since a large number of CASS components are installed in every nuclear power plant and replacing such massive components is prohibitively expensive, any significant degradation in mechanical properties that affects structural integrity, cracking resistance in particular, of CASS components will raise amore » serious concern on the performance of entire power plant. The CASS materials for nuclear components are highly corrosion-resistant Fe-Cr-Ni alloys with 300 series stainless steel compositions and mostly austenite (γ)–ferrite (δ) duplex structures, which result from the casting processes consisting of alloy melting and pouring or injecting liquid metal into a static or spinning mold. Although the commonly used static and centrifugal casting processes enable the fabrication of massive components with proper resistance to environmental attacks, the alloying and microstructural conditions are not highly controllable in actual fabrication, especially in the casting processes of massive components. In the corrosion-resistant Fe-Cr-Ni alloy system, the minor phase (i.e., the δ-ferrite phase) is inevitably formed during the casting process, and is in a non-equilibrium state subject to detrimental changes during exposure to elevated temperature and/or radiation. In general, relatively few critical degradation modes are expected within the current design lifetime of 40 years, given that the CASS components have been processed properly. It has been well known, however, that both the thermal aging and the neutron irradiation can cause degradation

Serum aminotransferase changes with significant weight loss: sex and age effects.

PubMed

Suzuki, Ayako; Binks, Martin; Sha, Ronald; Wachholtz, Amy; Eisenson, Howard; Diehl, Anna Mae

2010-02-01

In obese subjects, the liver may be differentially affected by significant weight loss depending on as yet unknown factors. We explored clinical factors associated with serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) changes during significant weight loss in a residential weight loss program. Clinical data from 362 adults who received a comprehensive weight loss intervention (ie, diets, physical fitness, and behavioral modification) in the program were analyzed. Serum ALT was used as a surrogate marker of liver injury. The ALT changes during the program were calculated to create study outcome categories (improvement, no change, or deterioration of ALT during significant weight loss). Variables of demography, lifestyle, and comorbidities at baseline, and total/rate of weight change during the program were explored for associations with the ALT change categories using multiple logistic regression models. Variation by sex was apparent among predictors of ALT deterioration; men with rapid weight loss and women with higher initial body mass index were more likely to experience ALT deterioration, whereas men with prior alcohol consumption were less likely to experience ALT deterioration even after adjusting for baseline ALT (Ps < .03). Variation by age was apparent among predictors of ALT improvement; younger patients with current smoking and older patients with rapid weight loss, diabetes or impaired fasting glucose, or sleep apnea or who followed a reduced-carbohydrate diet were less likely to experience ALT improvement (Ps < .05). A number of clinical factors influence ALT changes during weight loss in sex- and age-specific manners. The patterns that we detected may have pathophysiologic significance beyond the practical implications of our findings in clinical practice related to underlying changes in fat metabolism. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The potential use of physical resilience to predict healthy aging.

PubMed

Schorr, Anna; Carter, Christy; Ladiges, Warren

2018-01-01

Physical resilience is the ability of an organism to respond to stressors that acutely disrupt normal physiological homeostasis. By definition, resilience decreases with increasing age, while frailty, defined as a decline in tissue function, increases with increasing age. Assessment of resilience could therefore be an informative early paradigm to predict healthy aging compared to frailty, which measures late life dysfunction. Parameters for resilience in the laboratory mouse are not yet well defined, and no single standardized stress test exists. Since aging involves multiple genetic pathways, integrative responses involving multiple tissues, organs, and activities need to be measured to reveal the overall resilience status, suggesting a battery of stress tests, rather than a single all-encompassing one, would be most informative. Three simple, reliable, and inexpensive stressors are described in this review that could be used as a panel to determine levels of resilience. Brief cold water immersion allows a recovery time to normothermia as an indicator of resilience to hypothermia, i.e. the quicker the return to normal body temperature, the more robust the resilience. Sleep deprivation (SD) impairs remote memory in aged mice, and has detrimental effects on glucose metabolism. Cyclophosphamide (CYP) targets white blood cells, especially myeloid cells resulting in neutropenia with a rebound neutrophilia in an age-dependent manner. Thus a strong neutrophilic response indicates resilience. In conclusion, resilience promises to be an especially useful measurement of biological age, i.e. how fast a particular organ or tissue ages. The three stressors, cold, SD, and CYP, are applicable to human medicine and aging because they represent clinically relevant stress conditions that have effects in an age-dependent manner. They are thus an attractive perturbation for resilience testing in mice to measure the effectiveness of interventions that target basic aging processes.

Cerebellar peduncle injury predicts motor impairments in preterm infants: A quantitative tractography study at term-equivalent age.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Tatsuji; Yamada, Kei; Tozawa, Takenori; Chiyonobu, Tomohiro; Tokuda, Sachiko; Nishimura, Akira; Hosoi, Hajime; Morimoto, Masafumi

2018-05-15

Cerebellar injury is well established as an important finding in preterm infants with cerebral palsy (CP). In this study, we investigated associations between injury to the cerebellar peduncles and motor impairments in preterm infants using quantitative tractography at term-equivalent age, which represents an early phase before the onset of motor impairments. We studied 64 preterm infants who were born at <33 weeks gestational age. These infants were divided into three groups: CP, Non-CP (defined as infants with periventricular leukomalacia but having normal motor function), and a Normal group. Diffusion tensor imaging was performed at term-equivalent age and motor function was assessed no earlier than a corrected age of 2 years. Using tractography, we measured fractional anisotropy (FA) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of the superior cerebellar peduncles (SCP) and middle cerebellar peduncles (MCP), as well as the motor/sensory tracts. The infants in the CP group had significantly lower FA of the SCP and sensory tract than those in the other groups. There was no significant difference in FA and ADC of the motor tract among the three groups. Severity of CP had a significant correlation with FA of the MCP, but not with the FA of other white matter tracts. Our results suggested that the infants with CP had injuries of the ascending tracts (e.g. the SCP and sensory tract), and that additional MCP injury might increase the severity of CP. Quantitative tractography assessment at term-equivalent age may be useful for screening preterm infants for prediction of future motor impairments. Copyright © 2018 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting motor development in very preterm infants at 12 months' corrected age: the role of qualitative magnetic resonance imaging and general movements assessments.

PubMed

Spittle, Alicia J; Boyd, Roslyn N; Inder, Terrie E; Doyle, Lex W

2009-02-01

The objective of this study was to compare the predictive value of qualitative MRI of brain structure at term and general movements assessments at 1 and 3 months' corrected age for motor outcome at 1 year's corrected age in very preterm infants. Eighty-six very preterm infants (<30 weeks' gestation) underwent MRI at term-equivalent age, were evaluated for white matter abnormality, and had general movements assessed at 1 and 3 months' corrected age. Motor outcome at 1 year's corrected age was evaluated with the Alberta Infant Motor Scale, the Neuro-Sensory Motor Development Assessment, and the diagnosis of cerebral palsy by the child's pediatrician. At 1 year of age, the Alberta Infant Motor Scale categorized 30 (35%) infants as suspicious/abnormal; the Neuro-Sensory Motor Development Assessment categorized 16 (18%) infants with mild-to-severe motor dysfunction, and 5 (6%) infants were classified with cerebral palsy. White matter abnormality at term and general movements at 1 and 3 months significantly correlated with Alberta Infant Motor Scale and Neuro-Sensory Motor Development Assessment scores at 1 year. White matter abnormality and general movements at 3 months were the only assessments that correlated with cerebral palsy. All assessments had 100% sensitivity in predicting cerebral palsy. White matter abnormality demonstrated the greatest accuracy in predicting combined motor outcomes, with excellent levels of specificity (>90%); however, the sensitivity was low. On the other hand, general movements assessments at 1 month had the highest sensitivity (>80%); however, the overall accuracy was relatively low. Neuroimaging (MRI) and functional (general movements) examinations have important complementary roles in predicting motor development of very preterm infants.

The Functional Integration in the Sensory-Motor System Predicts Aging in Healthy Older Adults.

PubMed

He, Hui; Luo, Cheng; Chang, Xin; Shan, Yan; Cao, Weifang; Gong, Jinnan; Klugah-Brown, Benjamin; Bobes, Maria A; Biswal, Bharat; Yao, Dezhong

2016-01-01

Healthy aging is typically accompanied by a decrease in the motor capacity. Although the disrupted neural representations and performance of movement have been observed in older age in previous studies, the relationship between the functional integration of sensory-motor (SM) system and aging could be further investigated. In this study, we examine the impact of healthy aging on the resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) of the SM system, and investigate as to how aging is affecting the rsFC in SM network. The SM network was identified and evaluated in 52 healthy older adults and 51 younger adults using two common data analytic approaches: independent component analysis and seed-based functional connectivity (seed at bilateral M1 and S1). We then evaluated whether the altered rsFC of the SM network could delineate trajectories of the age of older adults using a machine learning methodology. Compared with the younger adults, the older demonstrated reduced functional integration with increasing age in the mid-posterior insula of SM network and increased rsFC among the sensorimotor cortex. Moreover, the reduction in the rsFC of mid-posterior insula is associated with the age of older adults. Critically, the analysis based on two-aspect connectivity-based prediction frameworks revealed that the age of older adults could be reliably predicted by this reduced rsFC. These findings further indicated that healthy aging has a marked influence on the SM system that would be associated with a reorganization of SM system with aging. Our findings provide further insight into changes in sensorimotor function in the aging brain.

Model training across multiple breeding cycles significantly improves genomic prediction accuracy in rye (Secale cereale L.).

PubMed

Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Schönleben, Manfred; Lehermeier, Christina; Schmidt, Malthe; Korzun, Viktor; Geiger, Hartwig H; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Gordillo, Andres; Wilde, Peer; Bauer, Eva; Schön, Chris-Carolin

2016-11-01

Genomic prediction accuracy can be significantly increased by model calibration across multiple breeding cycles as long as selection cycles are connected by common ancestors. In hybrid rye breeding, application of genome-based prediction is expected to increase selection gain because of long selection cycles in population improvement and development of hybrid components. Essentially two prediction scenarios arise: (1) prediction of the genetic value of lines from the same breeding cycle in which model training is performed and (2) prediction of lines from subsequent cycles. It is the latter from which a reduction in cycle length and consequently the strongest impact on selection gain is expected. We empirically investigated genome-based prediction of grain yield, plant height and thousand kernel weight within and across four selection cycles of a hybrid rye breeding program. Prediction performance was assessed using genomic and pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP and PBLUP). A total of 1040 S 2 lines were genotyped with 16 k SNPs and each year testcrosses of 260 S 2 lines were phenotyped in seven or eight locations. The performance gap between GBLUP and PBLUP increased significantly for all traits when model calibration was performed on aggregated data from several cycles. Prediction accuracies obtained from cross-validation were in the order of 0.70 for all traits when data from all cycles (N CS  = 832) were used for model training and exceeded within-cycle accuracies in all cases. As long as selection cycles are connected by a sufficient number of common ancestors and prediction accuracy has not reached a plateau when increasing sample size, aggregating data from several preceding cycles is recommended for predicting genetic values in subsequent cycles despite decreasing relatedness over time.

Meta-Analysis of Predictive Significance of the Black Hole Sign for Hematoma Expansion in Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Zheng, Jun; Yu, Zhiyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Hao; You, Chao; Ma, Lu

2018-04-27

Hematoma expansion is related to unfavorable prognosis in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). The black hole sign is a novel marker on non-contrast computed tomography for predicting hematoma expansion. However, its predictive values are different in previous studies. Thus, this meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the predictive significance of the black hole sign for hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was performed. Original researches on the association between the black hole sign and hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Sensitivity and specificity were pooled to assess the predictive accuracy. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve (SROC) was developed. Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test was used to assess the publication bias. Five studies with a total of 1495 patients were included in this study. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the black hole sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.30 and 0.91, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.78 in SROC curve. There was no significant publication bias. This meta-analysis shows that the black hole sign is a helpful imaging marker for predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. Although the black hole sign has a relatively low sensitivity, its specificity is relatively high. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aortic pulse wave velocity predicts cardiovascular mortality in middle-aged and elderly Japanese men.

PubMed

Inoue, Noriko; Maeda, Ryo; Kawakami, Hideshi; Shokawa, Tomoki; Yamamoto, Hideya; Ito, Chikako; Sasaki, Hideo

2009-03-01

Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) is widely used as a noninvasive index of arterial stiffness and was used in the present study to investigate the relationship between PWV and cardiovascular mortality in the middle-aged and elderly Japanese population using a longitudinal study design. From 1988 to 2003, a total of 3,960 men (50-69 years old at baseline) who underwent medical check-ups and measurement of PWV, which was standardized for diastolic blood pressure, were recruited and divided into 4 groups according to the PWV values. The average follow-up period was 8.2 years. Mortality from all-causes and from cardiovascular disease significantly increased as PWV increased in the entire follow-up period. Multivariate-adjusted relative risks of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality for the highest quartile of PWV (>9.0 m/s) were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97-1.68) and 1.83 (95%CI 1.02-3.29), respectively, compared with the lowest quartile (<7.5 m/s). An increased PWV can predict cardiovascular mortality in middle-aged and elderly Japanese men.

Biochemical risk indices, including plasma homocysteine, that prospectively predict mortality in older British people: the National Diet and Nutrition Survey of People Aged 65 Years and Over.

PubMed

Bates, Christopher J; Mansoor, Mohammed A; Pentieva, Kristina D; Hamer, Mark; Mishra, Gita D

2010-09-01

Predictive power, for total and vascular mortality, of selected indices measured at baseline in the British National Diet and Nutrition Survey (community-living subset) of People Aged 65 Years and Over was tested. Mortality status and its primary and underlying causes were recorded for 1100 (mean age 76.7 (sd 7.5) years, 50.2% females) respondents from the baseline survey in 1994-5 until September 2008. Follow-up data analyses focussed especially on known predictors of vascular disease risk, together with intakes and status indices of selected nutrients known to affect, or to be affected by, these predictors. Total mortality was significantly predicted by hazard ratios of baseline plasma concentrations (per sd) of total homocysteine (tHcy) (95% CI) 1.19 (1.11, 1.27), pyridoxal phosphate 0.90 (0.81, 1.00), pyridoxic acid 1.10 (1.03, 1.19), alpha1-antichymotrypsin 1.21 (1.13, 1.29), fibrinogen 1.14 (1.05, 1.23), creatinine 1.20 (1.10, 1.31) and glycosylated Hb 1.23 (1.14, 1.32), and by dietary intakes of energy 0.87 (0.80, 0.96) and protein 0.86 (0.77, 0.97). Prediction patterns and significance were similar for primary-cause vascular mortality. The traditional risk predictors plasma total and HDL cholesterol were not significant mortality predictors in this age group, nor were the known tHcy-regulating nutrients, folate and vitamin B12 (intakes and status indices). Model adjustment for known risk predictors resulted in the loss of significance for some of the afore-mentioned indices; however, tHcy 1.34 (1.04, 1.73) remained a significant predictor for vascular mortality. Thus, total and primary vascular mortality is predicted by energy and protein intakes, and by biochemical indices including tHcy, independent of serum folate or vitamin B12.

High levels of cynical distrust partly predict premature mortality in middle-aged to ageing men.

PubMed

Šmigelskas, Kastytis; Joffė, Roza; Jonynienė, Jolita; Julkunen, Juhani; Kauhanen, Jussi

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of cynical distrust on mortality in middle-aged and aging men. The analysis is based on Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease study, follow-up from 1984 to 2011. Sample consisted of 2682 men, aged 42-61 years at baseline. Data on mortality was provided by the National Death Registry, causes of death were classified by the National Center of Statistics of Finland. Cynical distrust was measured at baseline using Cynical Distrust Scale. Survival analyses were conducted using Cox regression models. In crude estimates after 28 years of follow-up, high cynical distrust was associated with 1.5-1.7 higher hazards for earlier death compared to low cynical distrust. Adjusted for conventional risk factors, high cynical distrust was significantly associated regarding CVD-free men and CVD mortality, while non-CVD mortality in study sample was consistently but not significantly associated. The risk effects were more expressed after 12-20 years rather than in earlier or later follow-up. To conclude, high cynical distrust associates with increased risk of CVD mortality in CVD-free men. The associations with non-CVD mortality are weaker and not reach statistical significance.

Prediction of battery storage ageing and solid electrolyte interphase property estimation using an electrochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashwin, T. R.; Barai, A.; Uddin, K.; Somerville, L.; McGordon, A.; Marco, J.

2018-05-01

Ageing prediction is often complicated due to the interdependency of ageing mechanisms. Research has highlighted that storage ageing is not linear with time. Capacity loss due to storing the battery at constant temperature can shed more light on parametrising the properties of the Solid Electrolyte Interphase (SEI); the identification of which, using an electrochemical model, is systematically addressed in this work. A new methodology is proposed where any one of the available storage ageing datasets can be used to find the property of the SEI layer. A sensitivity study is performed with different molecular mass and densities which are key parameters in modelling the thickness of the SEI deposit. The conductivity is adjusted to fine tune the rate of capacity fade to match experimental results. A correlation is fitted for the side reaction variation to capture the storage ageing in the 0%-100% SoC range. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to predict the unknown properties of the SEI layer which is difficult to measure experimentally. The simulation and experimental results show that the storage ageing model shows good accuracy for the cases at 50% and 90% and an acceptable agreement at 20% SoC.

Echocardiographic parameters predicting acute hemodynamically significant mitral regurgitation during transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

PubMed

Ito, Asahiro; Iwata, Shinichi; Mizutani, Kazuki; Nonin, Shinichi; Nishimura, Shinsuke; Takahashi, Yosuke; Yamada, Tokuhiro; Murakami, Takashi; Shibata, Toshihiko; Yoshiyama, Minoru

2018-03-01

Alteration in mitral valve morphology resulting from retrograde stiff wire entanglement sometimes causes hemodynamically significant acute mitral regurgitation (MR) during transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Little is known about the echocardiographic parameters related to hemodynamically significant acute MR. This study population consisted of 64 consecutive patients who underwent transfemoral TAVR. We defined hemodynamically significant acute MR as changes in the severity of MR with persistent hypotension (systolic blood pressure < 80-90 mm Hg or mean arterial pressure 30 mm Hg lower than baseline). Hemodynamically significant acute MR occurred in 5 cases (7.8%). Smaller left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVDs), larger ratios of the coiled section of stiff wire tip to LVDs (wire-width/LVDs), and higher Wilkins score were significantly associated with hemodynamically significant acute MR (P < .05), whereas the parameters of functional MR (annular area, anterior-posterior diameter, tenting area, and coaptation length) were not. Moreover, when patients were divided into 4 groups according to wire-width/LVDs and Wilkins score, the group with the larger wire-width/LVDs and higher Wilkins score improved prediction rates (P < .05). Small left ventricle or wire oversizing and calcific mitral apparatus were predictive of hemodynamically significant acute MR. These findings are important for risk stratification, and careful monitoring using intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography may improve the safety in this population. © 2017, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Accuracy of Two Motor Assessments during the First Year of Life in Preterm Infants for Predicting Motor Outcome at Preschool Age

PubMed Central

Spittle, Alicia J.; Lee, Katherine J.; Spencer-Smith, Megan; Lorefice, Lucy E.; Anderson, Peter J.; Doyle, Lex W.

2015-01-01

Aim The primary aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) and Neuro-Sensory Motor Developmental Assessment (NSMDA) over the first year of life for predicting motor impairment at 4 years in preterm children. The secondary aims were to assess the predictive value of serial assessments over the first year and when using a combination of these two assessment tools in follow-up. Method Children born <30 weeks’ gestation were prospectively recruited and assessed at 4, 8 and 12 months’ corrected age using the AIMS and NSMDA. At 4 years’ corrected age children were assessed for cerebral palsy (CP) and motor impairment using the Movement Assessment Battery for Children 2nd-edition (MABC-2). We calculated accuracy of the AIMS and NSMDA for predicting CP and MABC-2 scores ≤15th (at-risk of motor difficulty) and ≤5th centile (significant motor difficulty) for each test (AIMS and NSMDA) at 4, 8 and 12 months, for delay on one, two or all three of the time points over the first year, and finally for delay on both tests at each time point. Results Accuracy for predicting motor impairment was good for each test at each age, although false positives were common. Motor impairment on the MABC-2 (scores ≤5th and ≤15th) was most accurately predicted by the AIMS at 4 months, whereas CP was most accurately predicted by the NSMDA at 12 months. In regards to serial assessments, the likelihood ratio for motor impairment increased with the number of delayed assessments. When combining both the NSMDA and AIMS the best accuracy was achieved at 4 months, although results were similar at 8 and 12 months. Interpretation Motor development during the first year of life in preterm infants assessed with the AIMS and NSMDA is predictive of later motor impairment at preschool age. However, false positives are common and therefore it is beneficial to follow-up children at high risk of motor impairment at more than one time point, or to use a

Accuracy of Two Motor Assessments during the First Year of Life in Preterm Infants for Predicting Motor Outcome at Preschool Age.

PubMed

Spittle, Alicia J; Lee, Katherine J; Spencer-Smith, Megan; Lorefice, Lucy E; Anderson, Peter J; Doyle, Lex W

2015-01-01

The primary aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) and Neuro-Sensory Motor Developmental Assessment (NSMDA) over the first year of life for predicting motor impairment at 4 years in preterm children. The secondary aims were to assess the predictive value of serial assessments over the first year and when using a combination of these two assessment tools in follow-up. Children born <30 weeks' gestation were prospectively recruited and assessed at 4, 8 and 12 months' corrected age using the AIMS and NSMDA. At 4 years' corrected age children were assessed for cerebral palsy (CP) and motor impairment using the Movement Assessment Battery for Children 2nd-edition (MABC-2). We calculated accuracy of the AIMS and NSMDA for predicting CP and MABC-2 scores ≤15th (at-risk of motor difficulty) and ≤5th centile (significant motor difficulty) for each test (AIMS and NSMDA) at 4, 8 and 12 months, for delay on one, two or all three of the time points over the first year, and finally for delay on both tests at each time point. Accuracy for predicting motor impairment was good for each test at each age, although false positives were common. Motor impairment on the MABC-2 (scores ≤5th and ≤15th) was most accurately predicted by the AIMS at 4 months, whereas CP was most accurately predicted by the NSMDA at 12 months. In regards to serial assessments, the likelihood ratio for motor impairment increased with the number of delayed assessments. When combining both the NSMDA and AIMS the best accuracy was achieved at 4 months, although results were similar at 8 and 12 months. Motor development during the first year of life in preterm infants assessed with the AIMS and NSMDA is predictive of later motor impairment at preschool age. However, false positives are common and therefore it is beneficial to follow-up children at high risk of motor impairment at more than one time point, or to use a combination of assessment tools. ACTR

An Individual-Tree Growth and Yield Prediction System for Even-Aged Natural Shortleaf Pine Forests

Treesearch

Thomas B. Lynch; Kenneth L. Hitch; Michael M. Huebschmann; Paul A. Murphy

1999-01-01

The development of a system of equations that model the growth and development of even-aged natural shortleaf (Pinus echinata Mill.) pine forests is described. The growth prediction system is a distance-independent individual-tree simulator containing equations that predict basal-area growth, survival, total and merchantable heights, and total and...

Clinical Risk Index for Babies score for the prediction of neurodevelopmental outcomes at 3 years of age in infants of very low birthweight.

PubMed

Lodha, Abhay; Sauvé, Reg; Chen, Sophie; Tang, Selphee; Christianson, Heather

2009-11-01

In this study, we evaluated the Clinical Risk Index for Babies - revised (CRIB-II) score as a predictor of long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes in preterm infants at 36 months' corrected age. CRIB-II scores, which include birthweight, gestational age, sex, admission temperature, and base excess, were recorded prospectively on all infants weighing 1250g or less admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). The sensitivity and specificity of CRIB-II scores to predict poor outcomes were examined using receiver operating characteristic curves, and predictive accuracy was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC), based on the observed values entered on a continuous scale. Poor outcomes were defined as death or major neurodevelopmental disability (cerebral palsy, neurosensory hearing loss requiring amplification, legal blindness, severe seizure disorder, or cognitive score >2SD below the mean for adjusted age determined by clinical neurological examination and on the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence, Bayley Scales of Infant Development, or revised Leiter International Performance Scale). Of the 180 infants admitted to the NICU, 155 survived. Complete follow-up data were available for 107 children. The male:female ratio was 50:57 (47-53%), median birthweight was 930g (range 511-1250g), and median gestational age was 27 weeks (range 23-32wks). Major neurodevelopmental impairment was observed in 11.2% of participants. In a regression model, the CRIB-II score was significantly correlated with long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes. It predicted major neurodevelopmental impairment (odds ratio [OR] 1.57, bootstrap 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-3.01; AUC 0.84) and poor outcome (OR 1.46; bootstrap 95% CI 1.31-1.71, AUC 0.82) at 36 months' corrected age. CRIB-II scores of 13 or more in the first hour of life can reliably predict major neurodevelopmental impairment at 36 months' corrected age (sensitivity 83%; specificity 84%).

Factors predicting Behavior Management Problems during Initial Dental Examination in Children Aged 2 to 8 Years

PubMed Central

Kumar, Dipanshu; Anand, Ashish; Mittal, Vipula; Singh, Aparna; Aggarwal, Nidhi

2017-01-01

Aim The aim of the present study was to identify the various background variables and its influence on behavior management problems (BMP) in children. Materials and methods The study included 165 children aged 2 to 8 years. During the initial dental visit, an experienced operator obtained each child’s background variables from accompanying guardians using a standardized questionnaire. Children’s dental behavior was rated by Frankel behavior rating scale. The behavior was then analyzed in relation to the answers of the questionnaire, and a logistic regression model was used to determine the power of the variables, separately or combined, to predict BMP. Results The logistic regression analysis considering differences in background variables between children with negative or positive behavior. Four variables turned out to be as predictors: Age, the guardian’s expectation of the child’s behavior at the dental examination, the child’s anxiety when meeting unfamiliar people, and the presence and absence of toothache. Conclusion The present study concluded that by means of simple questionnaire BMP in children may be expected if one of these attributes is found. Clinical significance Information on the origin of dental fear and uncooperative behavior in a child patient prior to treatment process may help the pediatric dentist plan appropriate behavior management and treatment strategy. How to cite this article Sharma A, Kumar D, Anand A, Mittal V, Singh A, Aggarwal N. Factors predicting Behavior Management Problems during Initial Dental Examination in Children Aged 2 to 8 Years. Int J Clin Pediatr Dent 2017;10(1):5-9. PMID:28377646

Predicting Age of Sexual Initiation: Family-Level Antecedents in Three Ethnic Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moilanen, Kristin L.; Leary, Janie M.; Watson, S. Michelle; Ottley, Jason

2018-01-01

We investigated how family characteristics and experiences during early adolescence predicted timing of sexual initiation. In addition, we investigated adolescent sex and race/ethnicity as potential moderating factors. As part of the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth-1979 (CNLSY-79), 799 adolescents aged 12 to 15 years provided…

Early Family System Types Predict Children's Emotional Attention Biases at School Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindblom, Jallu; Peltola, Mikko J.; Vänskä, Mervi; Hietanen, Jari K.; Laakso, Anu; Tiitinen, Aila; Tulppala, Maija; Punamäki, Raija-Leena

2017-01-01

The family environment shapes children's social information processing and emotion regulation. Yet, the long-term effects of early family systems have rarely been studied. This study investigated how family system types predict children's attentional biases toward facial expressions at the age of 10 years. The participants were 79 children from…

Functional Independence in Late-Life: Maintaining Physical Functioning in Older Adulthood Predicts Daily Life Function after Age 80

PubMed Central

Leng, Xiaoyan; La Monte, Michael J.; Tindle, Hilary A.; Cochrane, Barbara B.; Shumaker, Sally A.

2016-01-01

Abstract Background. We examined physical functioning (PF) trajectories (maintaining, slowly declining, and rapidly declining) spanning 15 years in older women aged 65–80 and protective factors that predicted better current levels and less decline in functional independence outcomes after age 80. Methods. Women’s Health Initiative extension participants who met criteria (enrolled in either the clinical trial or observational study cohort, >80 years at the data release cutoff, PF survey data from initial enrollment to age 80, and functional independence survey data after age 80) were included in these analyses (mean [ SD ] age = 84.0 [1.4] years; N = 10,478). PF was measured with the SF-36 (mean = 4.9 occasions). Functional independence was measured by self-reported level of dependence in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADLs and IADLs) (mean = 3.4 and 3.3 occasions). Results. Maintaining consistent PF in older adulthood extends functional independence in ADL and IADL in late-life. Protective factors shared by ADL and IADL include maintaining PF over time, self-reported excellent or very good health, no history of hip fracture after age 55, and no history of cardiovascular disease. Better IADL function is uniquely predicted by a body mass index less than 25 and no depression. Less ADL and IADL decline is predicted by better self-reported health, and less IADL decline is uniquely predicted by having no history of hip fracture after age 55. Conclusions. Maintaining or improving PF and preventing injury and disease in older adulthood (ages 65–80) has far-reaching implications for improving late-life (after age 80) functional independence. PMID:26858328

Ages and Stages Questionnaire at 3 Years for Predicting IQ at 5-6 Years.

PubMed

Charkaluk, Marie-Laure; Rousseau, Jessica; Calderon, Johanna; Bernard, Jonathan Y; Forhan, Anne; Heude, Barbara; Kaminski, Monique

2017-04-01

To assess the predictive value of the 36-month Ages & Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) score for IQ score at age 5 to 6 years in the general population and to identify factors associated with IQ <85 once the ASQ score is taken into account. Data were collected from 939 children enrolled in a population-based prospective cohort study. Developmental outcomes at 36 months were assessed via the ASQ and at 5 to 6 years via the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence. The ASQ threshold was identified via the receiver operating characteristic curve. Additional predictive factors to obtain an IQ <85 were investigated, and their interaction with ASQ score was studied. Sixty-nine children (7.3%) had an IQ <85. A 36-month ASQ score threshold of 270 was optimal to identify children with an IQ <85 at 5 to 6 years, with a 0.77 ± 0.11 sensitivity and 0.68 ± 0.03 specificity. Maternal educational level and occupational activity at the time of ASQ completion were associated with the risk of an IQ <85 at a given ASQ level. In the multivariate model, no interaction between the studied factors and ASQ score reached significance. In the general pediatric population, 36-month ASQ parental reports could be used to identify children at later risk of cognitive delay. Low maternal education level should also be considered as a major risk factor for lower IQ in preschool children regardless of ASQ score. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Hardiness commitment, gender, and age differentiate university academic performance.

PubMed

Sheard, Michael

2009-03-01

The increasing diversity of students, particularly in age, attending university has seen a concomitant interest in factors predicting academic success. This 2-year correlational study examined whether age, gender (demographic variables), and hardiness (cognitive/emotional variable) differentiate and predict university final degree grade point average (GPA) and final-year dissertation mark. Data are reported from a total of 134 university undergraduate students. Participants provided baseline data in questionnaires administered during the first week of their second year of undergraduate study and gave consent for their academic progress to be tracked. Final degree GPA and dissertation mark were the academic performance criteria. Mature-age students achieved higher final degree GPA compared to young undergraduates. Female students significantly outperformed their male counterparts in each measured academic assessment criteria. Female students also reported a significantly higher mean score on hardiness commitment compared to male students. commitment was the most significant positive correlate of academic achievement. Final degree GPA and dissertation mark were significantly predicted by commitment, and commitment and gender, respectively. The findings have implications for universities targeting academic support services to maximize student scholastic potential. Future research should incorporate hardiness, gender, and age with other variables known to predict academic success.

76 FR 60112 - Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: “Byzantium and Islam: Age...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-28

... DEPARTMENT OF STATE [Public Notice 7615] Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: ``Byzantium and Islam: Age of Transition (7th-9th Century)'' SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given of... included in the exhibition ``Byzantium and Islam: Age of Transition (7th-9th Century),'' imported from...

Vesicoureteral Reflux Index: Predicting Primary Vesicoureteral Reflux Resolution in Children Diagnosed after Age 24 Months.

PubMed

Garcia-Roig, Michael; Ridley, Derrick E; McCracken, Courtney; Arlen, Angela M; Cooper, Christopher S; Kirsch, Andrew J

2017-04-01

The Vesicoureteral Reflux Index is a validated tool that reliably predicts spontaneous resolution of reflux or at least 2 grades of improvement for patients diagnosed before age 24 months. We evaluated the Vesicoureteral Reflux Index in children older than 2 years. Patients younger than 18 years who were diagnosed with primary vesicoureteral reflux after age 24 months and had undergone 2 or more voiding cystourethrograms were identified. Disease severity was scored using the Vesicoureteral Reflux Index, a 6-point scale based on gender, reflux grade, ureteral abnormalities and reflux timing. Proportional subdistribution hazard models for competing risks identified variables associated with resolution/improvement at different time points. A total of 21 males and 250 females met inclusion criteria. Mean ± SD age was 4.0 ± 2.1 years and patients had a median vesicoureteral reflux grade of 2. The Vesicoureteral Reflux Index score improved by 1 point in 1 patient (100%), 2 points in 25 (67.6%), 3 points in 48 (37%), 4 points in 18 (21.4%) and 5 to 6 points in 4 (18.2%). Female gender (p = 0.005) and vesicoureteral reflux timing (late filling, p = 0.002; early/mid filling, p <0.001) independently predicted nonresolution. Median resolution time based on Vesicoureteral Reflux Index score was 2 months or less in 15.6% of patients (95% CI 11.0-13.8), 3 months in 34.7% (95% CI 25.4-44.1), 4 months in 55.9% (95% CI 40.1 to infinity) and 5 months or more in 30.3% (95% CI 29.5 to infinity). High grade (IV or V) reflux was not associated with resolution at any point. Ureteral abnormalities were associated with lack of resolution in the first 12 to 18 months (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.29-0.80) but not in later followup. Vesicoureteral Reflux Index scores of 3, 4 and 5 were significantly associated with lack of resolution/improvement compared to scores of 2 or less (p = 0.031). The Vesicoureteral Reflux Index reliably predicts primary vesicoureteral reflux improvement/resolution in

Assessment of single-item literacy questions, age, and education level in the prediction of low health numeracy.

PubMed

Johnson, Tim V; Abbasi, Ammara; Kleris, Renee S; Ehrlich, Samantha S; Barthwaite, Echo; DeLong, Jennifer; Master, Viraj A

2013-08-01

Determining a patient's health literacy is important to optimum patient care. Single-item questions exist for screening written health literacy. We sought to assess the predictive potential of three common screening questions, along with patient age and education level, in the prediction of low health numerical literacy (numeracy). After demographic and educational information was obtained, 441 patients were administered three health literacy screening questions. The three-item Schwartz-Woloshin Numeracy Scale was then administered to assess for low health numeracy (score of 0 out of 3). This score served as the reference standard for Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. ROC curves were constructed and used to determine the area under the curve (AUC); a higher AUC suggests increased statistical significance. None of the three screening questions were significant predictors of low health numeracy. However, education level was a significant predictor of low health numeracy, with an AUC (95% CI) of 0.811 (0.720-0.902). This measure had a specificity of 95.3% at the cutoff of 12 years of education (<12 versus > or = 12 years of education) but was non-sensitive. Common single-item questions used to screen for written health literacy are ineffective screening tools for health numeracy. However, low education level is a specific predictor of low health numeracy.

Prediction of survival without morbidity for infants born at under 33 weeks gestational age: a user-friendly graphical tool.

PubMed

Shah, Prakesh S; Ye, Xiang Y; Synnes, Anne; Rouvinez-Bouali, Nicole; Yee, Wendy; Lee, Shoo K

2012-03-01

To develop models and a graphical tool for predicting survival to discharge without major morbidity for infants with a gestational age (GA) at birth of 22-32 weeks using infant information at birth. Retrospective cohort study. Canadian Neonatal Network data for 2003-2008 were utilised. Neonates born between 22 and 32 weeks gestation admitted to neonatal intensive care units in Canada. Survival to discharge without major morbidity defined as survival without severe neurological injury (intraventricular haemorrhage grade 3 or 4 or periventricular leukomalacia), severe retinopathy (stage 3 or higher), necrotising enterocolitis (stage 2 or 3) or chronic lung disease. Of the 17 148 neonates who met the eligibility criteria, 65% survived without major morbidity. Sex and GA at birth were significant predictors. Birth weight (BW) had a significant but non-linear effect on survival without major morbidity. Although maternal information characteristics such as steroid use, improved the prediction of survival without major morbidity, sex, GA at birth and BW for GA predicted survival without major morbidity almost as accurately (area under the curve: 0.84). The graphical tool based on the models showed how the GA and BW for GA interact, to enable prediction of outcomes especially for small and large for GA infants. This graphical tool provides an improved and easily interpretable method to predict survival without major morbidity for very preterm infants at the time of birth. These curves are especially useful for small and large for GA infants.

[Predictive value of qualitative assessment of general movements for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in infants with asphyxia].

PubMed

Chen, Nan; Wen, Xiao-Hong; Huang, Jin-Hua; Wang, Shui-Yun; Zhu, Yue-E

2015-12-01

To investigate the predictive value of the qualitative assessment of general movements (GMs) for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in full-term infants with asphyxia. A total of 114 full-term asphyxiated infants, who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit between 2009 and 2012 and took part in follow-ups after discharge were included in the study. All of them received the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth. The development quotient was determined with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development at 24 months of age. The results of the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth showed that among 114 infants, 20 (17.5%) had poor repertoire movements and 7 (6.1%) had cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period; 8 infants (7.0%) had the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period. The results of development quotient at 24 months of age showed that 7 infants (6.1%) had adverse developmental outcomes: 6 cases of cerebral palsy and mental retardation and 1 case of mental retardation. There was a poor consistency between poor repertoire movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=-0.019; P>0.05). There was a high consistency between cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.848; P<0.05), and the results of predictive values of cramped-synchronized movements were shown as follows: predictive validity 98.2%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 99.1%, positive predictive value 85.7%, and negative predictive value 99.1%. There was a high consistency between the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.786; P<0.05), and its predictive values were expressed as follows: predictive validity 97.4%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 98.1%, positive predictive value 75

Future Time Perspective and Awareness of Age-Related Change: Examining their Role in Predicting Psychological Well-Being

PubMed Central

Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

2016-01-01

This study examined how two distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime – future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC) – are associated with one another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the U.S. and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40–98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. PMID:27243764

Future time perspective and awareness of age-related change: Examining their role in predicting psychological well-being.

PubMed

Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

2016-09-01

This study examined how 2 distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime-future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC)-are associated with another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging, and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the United States and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40-98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting cattle age from eye lens weight and nitrogen content, dentition, and United States Department of Agriculture maturity score.

PubMed

Raines, C R; Dikeman, M E; Unruh, J A; Hunt, M C; Knock, R C

2008-12-01

This research explores the relationship between generally accepted and alternative cattle age-prediction methods and chronological age. Cattle (n = 386) of documented ages ranging from 370 to 1,115 d of age were used. Dentition (DEN), USDA maturity score (MS), lens weight (LW), and lens total N (LN) content were used as possible predictors of age. Correlations with age were determined: LW (r = 0.77); DEN (r = 0.74); LN (r = 0.71); and MS (r = 0.64). Stepwise backward regression was used to generate an age prediction equation: Age (mo) = -21.79 + 17.23(LW, g) + 0.038(DEN). By this equation, 38% of cattle age were verified as age. Independent measures verified the following percentages of cattle as age: LW (20.2%), MS (11.0%), DEN (9.6%), and LN (8.7%). The DEN verified that 87.6% were verified as <30 mo old, and LW verified 81.6% of cattle as <30 mo old. A separate group of cattle (n = 18) ranging in age from 1 to 12 yr were evaluated for lens properties, for which LW (R(2) = 0.91) and LN (R(2) = 0.92) were highly correlated with age. The LW and DEN were the best predictors of age for cattle 13- to 37-mo-old and yielded the most accurate age prediction when used in combination (R(2) = 0.67).

Functional Independence in Late-Life: Maintaining Physical Functioning in Older Adulthood Predicts Daily Life Function after Age 80.

PubMed

Vaughan, Leslie; Leng, Xiaoyan; La Monte, Michael J; Tindle, Hilary A; Cochrane, Barbara B; Shumaker, Sally A

2016-03-01

We examined physical functioning (PF) trajectories (maintaining, slowly declining, and rapidly declining) spanning 15 years in older women aged 65-80 and protective factors that predicted better current levels and less decline in functional independence outcomes after age 80. Women's Health Initiative extension participants who met criteria (enrolled in either the clinical trial or observational study cohort, >80 years at the data release cutoff, PF survey data from initial enrollment to age 80, and functional independence survey data after age 80) were included in these analyses (mean [SD] age = 84.0 [1.4] years; N = 10,478). PF was measured with the SF-36 (mean = 4.9 occasions). Functional independence was measured by self-reported level of dependence in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADLs and IADLs) (mean = 3.4 and 3.3 occasions). Maintaining consistent PF in older adulthood extends functional independence in ADL and IADL in late-life. Protective factors shared by ADL and IADL include maintaining PF over time, self-reported excellent or very good health, no history of hip fracture after age 55, and no history of cardiovascular disease. Better IADL function is uniquely predicted by a body mass index less than 25 and no depression. Less ADL and IADL decline is predicted by better self-reported health, and less IADL decline is uniquely predicted by having no history of hip fracture after age 55. Maintaining or improving PF and preventing injury and disease in older adulthood (ages 65-80) has far-reaching implications for improving late-life (after age 80) functional independence. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Thyroid Gland Involvement in Carcinoma Larynx and Hypopharynx-Predictive Factors and Prognostic Significance.

PubMed

Iype, Elizabeth Mathew; Jagad, Vijay; Nochikattil, Santhosh Kumar; Varghese, Bipin T; Sebastian, Paul

2016-02-01

Intraoperative management of thyroid gland in laryngeal and hypopharyngeal cancer is controversial. The objectives of this study were to determine the incidence of thyroid gland invasion in patients undergoing surgery for laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma, to assess predictive factors and to assess the prognosis in patients with and without thyroid gland invasion. One hundred and thirty-three patients who underwent surgery for carcinoma larynx and hypopharynx from 2006 to 2010 were reviewed retrospectively. Surgical specimens were examined to determine the incidence of thyroid gland invasion and predictive factors were analysed. The recurrence rate and the survival in patients with and without thyroid gland invasion were also analysed. Out of the 133 patients with carcinoma larynx and hypopharynx who underwent surgery, histological thyroid gland invasion was observed in 28/133 (21%) patients. Significant relationship was found between histological thyroid gland invasion and preoperative evidence of thyroid cartilage erosion by CT scan and also when gross thyroid gland involvement observed during surgery. There is significant association between thyroid gland invasion when there is upper oesophageal or subglottic involvement. After analysing the retrospective data from our study, we would like to suggest that thyroid gland need not be removed routinely in all laryngectomies, unless there is advanced disease with thyroid cartilage erosion and gross thyroid gland involvement or disease with significant subglottic or oesophageal involvement.

Morphofunctional and signaling molecules overlap of the pineal gland and thymus: role and significance in aging.

PubMed

Paltsev, Michael A; Polyakova, Victoria O; Kvetnoy, Igor M; Anderson, George; Kvetnaia, Tatiana V; Linkova, Natalia S; Paltseva, Ekaterina M; Rubino, Rosa; De Cosmo, Salvatore; De Cata, Angelo; Mazzoccoli, Gianluigi

2016-03-15

Deficits in neuroendocrine-immune system functioning, including alterations in pineal and thymic glands, contribute to aging-associated diseases. This study looks at ageing-associated alterations in pineal and thymic gland functioning evaluating common signaling molecules present in both human and animal pinealocytes and thymocytes: endocrine cell markers (melatonin, serotonin, pCREB, AANAT, CGRP, VIP, chromogranin А); cell renovation markers (p53, AIF, Ki67), matrix metalloproteinases (MMP2, MMP9) and lymphocytes markers (CD4, CD5, CD8, CD20). Pineal melatonin is decreased, as is one of the melatonin pathway synthesis enzymes in the thymic gland. A further similarity is the increased MMPs levels evident over age in both glands. Significant differences are evident in cell renovation processes, which deteriorate more quickly in the aged thymus versus the pineal gland. Decreases in the number of pineal B-cells and thymic T-cells were also observed over aging. Collected data indicate that cellular involution of the pineal gland and thymus show many commonalities, but also significant changes in aging-associated proteins. It is proposed that such ageing-associated alterations in these two glands provide novel pharmaceutical targets for the wide array of medical conditions that are more likely to emerge over the course of ageing.

Morphofunctional and signaling molecules overlap of the pineal gland and thymus: role and significance in aging

PubMed Central

Paltsev, Michael A.; Polyakova, Victoria O.; Kvetnoy, Igor M.; Anderson, George; Kvetnaia, Tatiana V.; Linkova, Natalia S.; Paltseva, Ekaterina M.; Rubino, Rosa; De Cosmo, Salvatore; De Cata, Angelo; Mazzoccoli, Gianluigi

2016-01-01

Deficits in neuroendocrine-immune system functioning, including alterations in pineal and thymic glands, contribute to aging-associated diseases. This study looks at ageing-associated alterations in pineal and thymic gland functioning evaluating common signaling molecules present in both human and animal pinealocytes and thymocytes: endocrine cell markers (melatonin, serotonin, pCREB, AANAT, CGRP, VIP, chromogranin A); cell renovation markers (p53, AIF, Ki67), matrix metalloproteinases (MMP2, MMP9) and lymphocytes markers (CD4, CD5, CD8, CD20). Pineal melatonin is decreased, as is one of the melatonin pathway synthesis enzymes in the thymic gland. A further similarity is the increased MMPs levels evident over age in both glands. Significant differences are evident in cell renovation processes, which deteriorate more quickly in the aged thymus versus the pineal gland. Decreases in the number of pineal B-cells and thymic T-cells were also observed over aging. Collected data indicate that cellular involution of the pineal gland and thymus show many commonalities, but also significant changes in aging-associated proteins. It is proposed that such ageing-associated alterations in these two glands provide novel pharmaceutical targets for the wide array of medical conditions that are more likely to emerge over the course of ageing. PMID:26943046

Social cognitions about food choice in children aged five to eight years: Feasibility and predictive validity of an age appropriate measurement.

PubMed

Fernandes-Machado, Sandra; Gellert, Paul; Goncalves, Sonia; Sniehotta, Falko F; Araujo-Soares, Vera

2016-10-01

There are currently no instruments available to measure social cognitions towards food choice in children. This study aimed to test the feasibility and predictive validity of a novel measurement tool to assess food-related social cognitions. Sixty-eight children, five to eight years old, were asked to sort cards with photographs of four fruit and four sweet/savoury snacks as a mean to measure attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control (PBC), and intention. Subsequently, food choice (dependent variable) was assessed using a laboratory food choice task in which children could gain access to sweet and savoury or fruit items, or a combination. All participants completed the tasks successfully, demonstrating feasibility of the procedure. The order in which the cards were sorted for each construct differed sufficiently and correlations between constructs were in line with previous studies. Measures of PBC, intention, attitude, and subjective norm from the mother, but not from teachers or friends, correlated significantly with subsequent food choice. It is possible to measure food-related social cognitions in children aged five to eight and these measures were predictive of observed behaviour. The new instrument can contribute to our understanding of psychological determinants of food choice in young children. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to cholinesterase and platelet ratio in predicting significant liver fibrosis and cirrhosis of chronic hepatitis B.

PubMed

Liu, Danping; Li, Jian; Lu, Wei; Wang, Yanbing; Zhou, Xinlan; Huang, Dan; Li, Xiufen; Ding, Rongrong; Zhang, Zhanqing

2018-06-12

To evaluate the performance of a new mathematical model gamma- glutamyl transpeptidase to cholinesterase and platelet ratio (GCPR) versus gamma- glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio (GPR) in predicting significant fibrosis and cirrhosis of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). A complete cohort of 2343 patients was divided into early and late cohort depending on the time of liver biopsy. With reference to the Scheuer standard, liver pathological stage ≥S2 and ≥S4 were defined as significant fibrosis and cirrhosis, respectively. ROC curve was used to evaluate the performance of investigated models. In early cohort，the areas under ROC curves (AUROCs) of GCPR in predicting significant fibrosis of HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative patients (0.782 and 0.775) were both significantly greater than those of GPR (0.748 and 0.747) (Z＝8.198 and Z＝6.023, both P<0.0001); the AUROCs of GCPR in predicting cirrhosis of HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative patients (0.842 and 0.861) were both significantly greater than those of GPR (0.802 and 0.823) (Z＝6.686 and Z＝6.116, both P<0.0001). In early, late and complete cohort, using a single cutoff of GPCR>0.080, the specificities of GCPR in predicting significant fibrosis of HBeAg-positive patients were 83.3%, 88.2% and 85.0%, and of HBeAg-negative patients were 87.6%, 87.4% and 87.6%, respectively; and the sensitivities of GCPR in predicting cirrhosis of HBeAg-positive patients were 81.9%, 88.7% and 84.2%, and of HBeAg-negative patients were 83.1%,82.1% and 82.7%, respectively. GCPR has higher performance than GPR in predicting significant fibrosis and cirrhosis of CHB. Copyright © 2018 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

US/UK second level panel discussions on the health and value of: Ageing and lifetime predictions (u)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castro, Richard G

2011-01-18

Many healthy physics, engineering, and materials exchanges are being accomplished in ageing and lifetime prediction that directly supports US and UK Stockpile Management Programs. Lifetime assessment studies of silicon foams under compression - Joint AWE/LANLlLLNL study of compression set in stress cushions completed. Provides phenomenological prediction out to 50 years. Polymer volatile out-gassing studies - New exchange on the out-gassing of Ethylene Vinyl Acetate (EVA) using isotopic {sup 13}C labeling studies to interrogate mechanistic processes. Infra-red (IR) gas cell analytical capabilities developed by AWE will be used to monitor polymer out-gassing profiles. Pu Strength ageing Experiments and Constitutive Modeling -more » In recently compared modeling strategies for ageing effects on Pu yield strength at high strain rates, a US/UK consensus was reached on the general principle that the ageing effect is additive and not multiplicative. The fundamental mechanisms for age-strengthening in Pu remains unknown. Pu Surface and Interface Reactions - (1) US/UK secondment resulted in developing a metal-metal oxide model for radiation damaged studies consistent with a Modified Embedded Atom Method (MEAM) potential; and (2) Joint US/UK collaboration to study the role of impurities in hydride initiation. Detonator Ageing (wide range of activities) - (1) Long-term ageing study with field trials at Pantex incorporating materials from LANL, LLNL, SNL and AWE; (2) Characterization of PETN growth to detonation process; (3) Detonator performance modeling; and (4) Performance fault tree analysis. Benefits are a unified approach to lifetime prediction that Includes: materials characterization and the development of ageing models through improved understanding of the relationship between materials properties, ageing properties and detonator performance.« less

Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting C allocation in ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew; Sierra, Carlos

2017-04-01

The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. However, it is uncertain how some vegetation dynamics such as the allocation of carbon to different ecosystem compartments should be represented in models. The assumptions behind model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. Here, we asses model performance by calculating the age of the carbon in the system and in each compartment, and the overall transit time of C in the system. We used these diagnostics to assess the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the rates of C cycling in vegetation. First, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find the best set of parameters for the different model structures. Second, we calculated C stocks, respiration fluxes, radiocarbon values, ages, and transit times. We found a good fit of the three model structures to the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed and reduce model equifinality. Differences in model structures had a small impact on predicting ecosystem C compartments, but overall they resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of a storage compartment had an important impact on predicting system ages and transit times. In the case of the models with 1 or 2 storage compartments, the age of carbon in the system and in each of the compartments was distributed more towards younger ages than in the model that had no storage; the mean system age of these two models with storage was 80 years younger than in the model without storage. As expected from these age distributions, the mean transit time for the two models with storage compartments

Forecasting Significant Societal Events Using The Embers Streaming Predictive Analytics System

PubMed Central

Katz, Graham; Summers, Kristen; Ackermann, Chris; Zavorin, Ilya; Lim, Zunsik; Muthiah, Sathappan; Butler, Patrick; Self, Nathan; Zhao, Liang; Lu, Chang-Tien; Khandpur, Rupinder Paul; Fayed, Youssef; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2014-01-01

Abstract Developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity Open Source Indicators program, Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is a large-scale big data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest events on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November 2012 and delivers approximately 50 predictions each day for countries of Latin America. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, loosely coupled, shared-nothing architecture using ZeroMQ as its messaging backbone and JSON as its wire data format. It is deployed on Amazon Web Services using an entirely automated deployment process. We describe the architecture of the system, some of the design tradeoffs encountered during development, and specifics of the machine learning models underlying EMBERS. We also present a detailed prospective evaluation of EMBERS in forecasting significant societal events in the past 2 years. PMID:25553271

Forecasting Significant Societal Events Using The Embers Streaming Predictive Analytics System.

PubMed

Doyle, Andy; Katz, Graham; Summers, Kristen; Ackermann, Chris; Zavorin, Ilya; Lim, Zunsik; Muthiah, Sathappan; Butler, Patrick; Self, Nathan; Zhao, Liang; Lu, Chang-Tien; Khandpur, Rupinder Paul; Fayed, Youssef; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2014-12-01

Developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity Open Source Indicators program, Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is a large-scale big data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest events on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November 2012 and delivers approximately 50 predictions each day for countries of Latin America. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, loosely coupled, shared-nothing architecture using ZeroMQ as its messaging backbone and JSON as its wire data format. It is deployed on Amazon Web Services using an entirely automated deployment process. We describe the architecture of the system, some of the design tradeoffs encountered during development, and specifics of the machine learning models underlying EMBERS. We also present a detailed prospective evaluation of EMBERS in forecasting significant societal events in the past 2 years.

Degree of bilingualism predicts age of diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease in low-education but not in highly educated Hispanics.

PubMed

Gollan, Tamar H; Salmon, David P; Montoya, Rosa I; Galasko, Douglas R

2011-12-01

The current study investigated the relationship between bilingual language proficiency and onset of probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) in 44 Spanish-English bilinguals at the UCSD Alzheimer's Disease Research Center. Degree of bilingualism along a continuum was measured using Boston Naming Test (BNT) scores in each language. Higher degrees of bilingualism were associated with increasingly later age-of-diagnosis (and age of onset of symptoms), but this effect was driven by participants with low education level (a significant interaction between years of education and bilingualism) most of whom (73%) were also Spanish-dominant. Additionally, only objective measures (i.e., BNT scores), not self-reported degree of bilingualism, predicted age-of-diagnosis even though objective and self-reported measures were significantly correlated. These findings establish a specific connection between knowledge of two languages and delay of AD onset, and demonstrate that bilingual effects can be obscured by interactions between education and bilingualism, and by failure to obtain objective measures of bilingualism. More generally, these data support analogies between the effects of bilingualism and "cognitive reserve" and suggest an upper limit on the extent to which reserve can function to delay dementia. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Age-Appropriate Pharmacokinetics of Six Volatile Organic Compounds in the Rat Utilizing Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

The capability of physiologically based pharmacokinetic models to incorporate age-appropriate physiological and chemical-specific parameters was utilized to predict changes in internal dosimetry for six volatile organic compounds (VOCs) across different ages of rats.

76 FR 56492 - Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: “Antico: The Golden Age of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-13

... DEPARTMENT OF STATE [Public Notice: 7579] Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: ``Antico: The Golden Age of Renaissance Bronzes'' Summary: Notice is hereby given of the... exhibition ``Antico: The Golden Age of Renaissance Bronzes,'' imported from abroad for temporary exhibition...

The Developmental Significance of Adolescent Romantic Relationships: Parent and Peer Predictors of Engagement and Quality at Age 15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roisman, Glenn I.; Booth-LaForce, Cathryn; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Spieker, Susan

2009-01-01

From a longitudinal sample (n = 957; 49.9% male; 77.3% White/non-Hispanic) of participants studied from infancy through age 15, adolescents' depth of engagement in, and quality of romantic relationships were predicted from early and contemporaneous parent-child interactive quality and peer social competence. High quality maternal parenting and…

PREDICT-CP: study protocol of implementation of comprehensive surveillance to predict outcomes for school-aged children with cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Boyd, Roslyn N; Davies, Peter Sw; Ziviani, Jenny; Trost, Stewart; Barber, Lee; Ware, Robert; Rose, Stephen; Whittingham, Koa; Sakzewski, Leanne; Bell, Kristie; Carty, Christopher; Obst, Steven; Benfer, Katherine; Reedman, Sarah; Edwards, Priya; Kentish, Megan; Copeland, Lisa; Weir, Kelly; Davenport, Camilla; Brooks, Denise; Coulthard, Alan; Pelekanos, Rebecca; Guzzetta, Andrea; Fiori, Simona; Wynter, Meredith; Finn, Christine; Burgess, Andrea; Morris, Kym; Walsh, John; Lloyd, Owen; Whitty, Jennifer A; Scuffham, Paul A

2017-07-12

Cerebral palsy (CP) remains the world's most common childhood physical disability with total annual costs of care and lost well-being of $A3.87b. The PREDICT-CP (NHMRC 1077257 Partnership Project: Comprehensive surveillance to PREDICT outcomes for school age children with CP) study will investigate the influence of brain structure, body composition, dietary intake, oropharyngeal function, habitual physical activity, musculoskeletal development (hip status, bone health) and muscle performance on motor attainment, cognition, executive function, communication, participation, quality of life and related health resource use costs. The PREDICT-CP cohort provides further follow-up at 8-12 years of two overlapping preschool-age cohorts examined from 1.5 to 5 years (NHMRC 465128 motor and brain development; NHMRC 569605 growth, nutrition and physical activity). This population-based cohort study undertakes state-wide surveillance of 245 children with CP born in Queensland (birth years 2006-2009). Children will be classified for Gross Motor Function Classification System; Manual Ability Classification System, Communication Function Classification System and Eating and Drinking Ability Classification System. Outcomes include gross motor function, musculoskeletal development (hip displacement, spasticity, muscle contracture), upper limb function, communication difficulties, oropharyngeal dysphagia, dietary intake and body composition, participation, parent-reported and child-reported quality of life and medical and allied health resource use. These detailed phenotypical data will be compared with brain macrostructure and microstructure using 3 Tesla MRI (3T MRI). Relationships between brain lesion severity and outcomes will be analysed using multilevel mixed-effects models. The PREDICT-CP protocol is a prospectively registered and ethically accepted study protocol. The study combines data at 1.5-5 then 8-12 years of direct clinical assessment to enable prediction of outcomes

PREDICT-CP: study protocol of implementation of comprehensive surveillance to predict outcomes for school-aged children with cerebral palsy

PubMed Central

Boyd, Roslyn N; Davies, Peter SW; Ziviani, Jenny; Trost, Stewart; Barber, Lee; Ware, Robert; Rose, Stephen; Whittingham, Koa; Bell, Kristie; Carty, Christopher; Obst, Steven; Benfer, Katherine; Reedman, Sarah; Edwards, Priya; Kentish, Megan; Copeland, Lisa; Weir, Kelly; Davenport, Camilla; Brooks, Denise; Coulthard, Alan; Pelekanos, Rebecca; Guzzetta, Andrea; Fiori, Simona; Wynter, Meredith; Finn, Christine; Burgess, Andrea; Morris, Kym; Walsh, John; Lloyd, Owen; Whitty, Jennifer A; Scuffham, Paul A

2017-01-01

Objectives Cerebral palsy (CP) remains the world’s most common childhood physical disability with total annual costs of care and lost well-being of $A3.87b. The PREDICT-CP (NHMRC 1077257 Partnership Project: Comprehensive surveillance to PREDICT outcomes for school age children with CP) study will investigate the influence of brain structure, body composition, dietary intake, oropharyngeal function, habitual physical activity, musculoskeletal development (hip status, bone health) and muscle performance on motor attainment, cognition, executive function, communication, participation, quality of life and related health resource use costs. The PREDICT-CP cohort provides further follow-up at 8–12 years of two overlapping preschool-age cohorts examined from 1.5 to 5 years (NHMRC 465128 motor and brain development; NHMRC 569605 growth, nutrition and physical activity). Methods and analyses This population-based cohort study undertakes state-wide surveillance of 245 children with CP born in Queensland (birth years 2006–2009). Children will be classified for Gross Motor Function Classification System; Manual Ability Classification System, Communication Function Classification System and Eating and Drinking Ability Classification System. Outcomes include gross motor function, musculoskeletal development (hip displacement, spasticity, muscle contracture), upper limb function, communication difficulties, oropharyngeal dysphagia, dietary intake and body composition, participation, parent-reported and child-reported quality of life and medical and allied health resource use. These detailed phenotypical data will be compared with brain macrostructure and microstructure using 3 Tesla MRI (3T MRI). Relationships between brain lesion severity and outcomes will be analysed using multilevel mixed-effects models. Ethics and dissemination The PREDICT-CP protocol is a prospectively registered and ethically accepted study protocol. The study combines data at 1.5–5 then 8–12

The interaction between parenting and children's cortisol reactivity at age 3 predicts increases in children's internalizing and externalizing symptoms at age 6.

PubMed

Barrios, Chelsey S; Bufferd, Sara J; Klein, Daniel N; Dougherty, Lea R

2017-10-01

Little is known about the role of stress reactivity in the emergence of psychopathology across early childhood. In this longitudinal study, we tested the hypothesis that child cortisol reactivity at age 3 moderates associations between early parenting and children's internalizing and externalizing symptoms from age 3 to age 6. One hundred and sixty children were assessed at age 3, and 135 children were reassessed at age 6. At age 3, we exposed children to stress-inducing laboratory tasks, during which we obtained four salivary cortisol samples, and parental hostility was assessed using an observational parent-child interaction task. At ages 3 and 6, child psychiatric symptoms were assessed using a clinical interview with parents. The results indicated that the combination of high child cortisol reactivity and high observed parental hostility at age 3 was associated with greater concurrent externalizing symptoms at age 3 and predicted increases in internalizing and externalizing symptoms from age 3 to age 6. Findings highlight that increased stress reactivity, within the context of hostile parenting, plays a role in the emergence of psychopathology from preschool to school entry.

Predicting aged pork quality using a portable Raman device.

PubMed

Santos, C C; Zhao, J; Dong, X; Lonergan, S M; Huff-Lonergan, E; Outhouse, A; Carlson, K B; Prusa, K J; Fedler, C A; Yu, C; Shackelford, S D; King, D A; Wheeler, T L

2018-05-29

The utility of Raman spectroscopic signatures of fresh pork loin (1 d & 15 d postmortem) in predicting fresh pork tenderness and slice shear force (SSF) was determined. Partial least square models showed that sensory tenderness and SSF are weakly correlated (R 2  = 0.2). Raman spectral data were collected in 6 s using a portable Raman spectrometer (RS). A PLS regression model was developed to predict quantitatively the tenderness scores and SSF values from Raman spectral data, with very limited success. It was discovered that the prediction accuracies for day 15 post mortem samples are significantly greater than that for day 1 postmortem samples. Classification models were developed to predict tenderness at two ends of sensory quality as "poor" vs. "good". The accuracies of classification into different quality categories (1st to 4th percentile) are also greater for the day 15 postmortem samples for sensory tenderness (93.5% vs 76.3%) and SSF (92.8% vs 76.1%). RS has the potential to become a rapid on-line screening tool for the pork producers to quickly select meats with superior quality and/or cull poor quality to meet market demand/expectations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

75 FR 57102 - Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: “Titian and the Golden Age...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-17

... DEPARTMENT OF STATE [Public Notice 7174] Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: ``Titian and the Golden Age of Venetian Painting: Masterpieces from the National Galleries of... ``Titian and the Golden Age of Venetian Painting: Masterpieces from the National Galleries of Scotland...

Beverage intake of girls at age 5 y predicts adiposity and weight status in childhood and adolescence.

PubMed

Fiorito, Laura M; Marini, Michele; Francis, Lori A; Smiciklas-Wright, Helen; Birch, Leann L

2009-10-01

Increased consumption of sweetened beverage has been linked to higher energy intake and adiposity in childhood. The objective was to assess whether beverage intake at age 5 y predicted energy intake, adiposity, and weight status across childhood and adolescence. Participants were part of a longitudinal study of non-Hispanic white girls and their parents (n = 170) who were assessed biennially from age 5 to 15 y. At each assessment, beverage intake (milk, fruit juice, and sweetened beverages) and energy intake were assessed by using three 24-h recalls. Percentage body fat and waist circumference were measured. Height and weight were measured and used to calculate body mass index. Multiple regression analyses were used to predict the girls' adiposity. In addition, at age 5 y, girls were categorized as consuming <1, > or =1 and <2, or > or =2 servings of sweetened beverages. A mixed modeling approach was used to assess longitudinal differences and patterns of change in sweetened beverage and energy intake, adiposity, and weight status by frequency of sweetened beverage intake. Sweetened beverage intake at age 5 y, but not milk or fruit juice intake, was positively associated with adiposity from age 5 to 15 y. Greater consumption of sweetened beverages at age 5 y (> or =2 servings/d) was associated with a higher percentage body fat, waist circumference, and weight status from age 5 to 15 y. These findings provide new longitudinal evidence that early intake of sweetened beverages predicts adiposity and weight status across childhood and adolescence.

A Framework for Analyzing Biometric Template Aging and Renewal Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

databases has sufficient data to support template aging over an extended period of time. Another assumption is that there is significant variance to...mentioned above for enrollment also apply to verification. When combining enrollment and verification, there is a significant amount of variance that... significant advancement in the biometrics body of knowledge. This research presents the CTARP Framework, a novel foundational framework for methods of

Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

PubMed

Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

2018-02-01

Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Temporal Trends and Future Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence Across Age Groups in Trivandrum, South India.

PubMed

Mathew, Aleyamma; George, Preethi Sara; Arjunan, Asha; Augustine, Paul; Kalavathy, Mc; Padmakumari, G; Mathew, Beela Sarah

2016-01-01

Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005- 2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum. BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates. BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are <50 years of age and only 9% present with stage I disease. Average age increased from 53 to 56.4 years (p=0.0001), CR (per 105 women) increased from 39 (ASR: 35.2) to 55.4 (ASR: 43.4), AAPC for CR was 5.0 (p=0.001) and ASR was 3.1 (p=0.001). Rates increased from 50 years. Predicted ASpR is 174 in 50-59 years, 231 in > 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019- 20. BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied.

Predictive model for serious bacterial infections among infants younger than 3 months of age.

PubMed

Bachur, R G; Harper, M B

2001-08-01

To develop a data-derived model for predicting serious bacterial infection (SBI) among febrile infants <3 months old. All infants /=38.0 degrees C seen in an urban emergency department (ED) were retrospectively identified. SBI was defined as a positive culture of urine, blood, or cerebrospinal fluid. Tree-structured analysis via recursive partitioning was used to develop the model. SBI or No-SBI was the dichotomous outcome variable, and age, temperature, urinalysis (UA), white blood cell (WBC) count, absolute neutrophil count, and cerebrospinal fluid WBC were entered as potential predictors. The model was tested by V-fold cross-validation. Of 5279 febrile infants studied, SBI was diagnosed in 373 patients (7%): 316 urinary tract infections (UTIs), 17 meningitis, and 59 bacteremia (8 with meningitis, 11 with UTIs). The model sequentially used 4 clinical parameters to define high-risk patients: positive UA, WBC count >/=20 000/mm(3) or /=39.6 degrees C, and age <13 days. The sensitivity of the model for SBI is 82% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 78%-86%) and the negative predictive value is 98.3% (95% CI: 97.8%-98.7%). The negative predictive value for bacteremia or meningitis is 99.6% (95% CI: 99.4%-99.8%). The relative risk between high- and low-risk groups is 12.1 (95% CI: 9.3-15.6). Sixty-six SBI patients (18%) were misclassified into the lower risk group: 51 UTIs, 14 with bacteremia, and 1 with meningitis. Decision-tree analysis using common clinical variables can reasonably predict febrile infants at high-risk for SBI. Sequential use of UA, WBC count, temperature, and age can identify infants who are at high risk of SBI with a relative risk of 12.1 compared with lower-risk infants.

Updating and Not Shifting Predicts Learning Performance in Young and Middle-Aged Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gijselaers, Hieronymus J. M.; Meijs, Celeste; Neroni, Joyce; Kirschner, Paul A.; de Groot, Renate H. M.

2017-01-01

The goal of this study was to investigate whether single executive function (EF) tests were predictive for learning performance in mainly young and middle-aged adults. The tests measured shifting and updating. Processing speed was also measured. In an observational study, cognitive performance and learning performance were measured objectively in…

Validation of DAB2IP methylation and its relative significance in predicting outcome in renal cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Zhao, Liang-Yun; Kapur, Payal; Wu, Kai-Jie; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yan-Hong; Liao, Bing; He, Da-Lin; Chen, Wei; Margulis, Vitaly; Hsieh, Jer-Tsong; Luo, Jun-Hang

2016-01-01

We have recently reported tumor suppressive role of DAB2IP in RCC development. In this study, We identified one CpG methylation biomarker (DAB2IP CpG1) located UTSS of DAB2IP that was associated with poor overall survival in a cohort of 318 ccRCC patients from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We further validated the prognostic accuracy of DAB2IP CpG methylation by pyrosequencing quantitative methylation assay in 224 ccRCC patients from multiple Chinese centers (MCHC set), and 239 patients from University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas (UTSW set) by using FFPE samples. DAB2IP CpG1 can predict the overall survival of patients in TCGA, MCHC, and UTSW sets independent of patient age, Fuhrman grade and TNM stage (all p<0.05). DAB2IP CpG1 successfully categorized patients into high-risk and low-risk groups with significant differences of clinical outcome in respective clinical subsets, regardless of age, sex, grade, stage, or race (HR: 1.63-7.83; all p<0.05). The detection of DAB2IP CpG1 methylation was minimally affected by ITH in ccRCC. DAB2IP mRNA expression was regulated by DNA methylation in vitro. DAB2IP CpG1 methylation is a practical and repeatable biomarker for ccRCC, which can provide prognostic value that complements the current staging system. PMID:27129174

Intraindividual variability in basic reaction time predicts middle-aged and older pilots' flight simulator performance.

PubMed

Kennedy, Quinn; Taylor, Joy; Heraldez, Daniel; Noda, Art; Lazzeroni, Laura C; Yesavage, Jerome

2013-07-01

Intraindividual variability (IIV) is negatively associated with cognitive test performance and is positively associated with age and some neurological disorders. We aimed to extend these findings to a real-world task, flight simulator performance. We hypothesized that IIV predicts poorer initial flight performance and increased rate of decline in performance among middle-aged and older pilots. Two-hundred and thirty-six pilots (40-69 years) completed annual assessments comprising a cognitive battery and two 75-min simulated flights in a flight simulator. Basic and complex IIV composite variables were created from measures of basic reaction time and shifting and divided attention tasks. Flight simulator performance was characterized by an overall summary score and scores on communication, emergencies, approach, and traffic avoidance components. Although basic IIV did not predict rate of decline in flight performance, it had a negative association with initial performance for most flight measures. After taking into account processing speed, basic IIV explained an additional 8%-12% of the negative age effect on initial flight performance. IIV plays an important role in real-world tasks and is another aspect of cognition that underlies age-related differences in cognitive performance.

Intraindividual Variability in Basic Reaction Time Predicts Middle-Aged and Older Pilots’ Flight Simulator Performance

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Objectives. Intraindividual variability (IIV) is negatively associated with cognitive test performance and is positively associated with age and some neurological disorders. We aimed to extend these findings to a real-world task, flight simulator performance. We hypothesized that IIV predicts poorer initial flight performance and increased rate of decline in performance among middle-aged and older pilots. Method. Two-hundred and thirty-six pilots (40–69 years) completed annual assessments comprising a cognitive battery and two 75-min simulated flights in a flight simulator. Basic and complex IIV composite variables were created from measures of basic reaction time and shifting and divided attention tasks. Flight simulator performance was characterized by an overall summary score and scores on communication, emergencies, approach, and traffic avoidance components. Results. Although basic IIV did not predict rate of decline in flight performance, it had a negative association with initial performance for most flight measures. After taking into account processing speed, basic IIV explained an additional 8%–12% of the negative age effect on initial flight performance. Discussion. IIV plays an important role in real-world tasks and is another aspect of cognition that underlies age-related differences in cognitive performance. PMID:23052365

Impaired Sleep Predicts Cognitive Decline in Old People: Findings from the Prospective KORA Age Study.

PubMed

Johar, Hamimatunnisa; Kawan, Rasmila; Emeny, Rebecca Thwing; Ladwig, Karl-Heinz

2016-01-01

To investigate the association between sleep-related characteristics and cognitive change over 3 years of follow up in an aged population. Sleep characteristics and covariates were assessed at baseline in a standardized interview and clinical examination of the population-based KORA Age Study (n = 740, mean age = 75 years). Cognitive score (determined by telephone interview for cognitive status, TICS-m) was recorded at baseline and 3 years later. At baseline, 82.83% (n = 613) of participants had normal cognitive status, 13.51% (n = 100) were classified with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 3.64% (n = 27) with probable dementia. The effect of three distinct patterns of poor sleep (difficulties initiating [DIS] or maintaining sleep [DMS], daytime sleepiness [DS] or sleep duration) were considered on a change in cognitive score with adjustments for potential confounders in generalized linear regression models. Cognitive decline was more pronounced in individuals with DMS compared to those with no DMS (β = 1.33, 95% CI = 0.41-2.24, P < 0.001). However, the predictive power of DMS was only significant in individuals with normal cognition and not impaired subjects at baseline. Prolonged sleep duration increased the risk for cognitive decline in cognitively impaired elderly (β = 1.86, 95% CI = 0.15-3.57, P = 0.03). Other sleep characteristics (DIS and DS) were not significantly associated with cognitive decline. DMS and long sleep duration were associated with cognitive decline in normal and cognitively impaired elderly, respectively. The identification of impaired sleep quality may offer intervention strategies to deter cognitive decline in the elderly with normal cognitive function. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

76 FR 51458 - Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: “Wonder of the Age: Master...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-18

... DEPARTMENT OF STATE [Public Notice 7557] Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: ``Wonder of the Age: Master Painters of India, 1100- 1900'' SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given of... included in the exhibition ``Wonder of the Age: Master Painters of India, 1100-1900,'' imported from abroad...

Earlier Mother's Age at Menarche Predicts Rapid Infancy Growth and Childhood Obesity

PubMed Central

Ong, Ken K; Northstone, Kate; Wells, Jonathan CK; Rubin, Carol; Ness, Andy R; Golding, Jean; Dunger, David B

2007-01-01

Background Early menarche tends to be preceded by rapid infancy weight gain and is associated with increased childhood and adult obesity risk. As age at menarche is a heritable trait, we hypothesised that age at menarche in the mother may in turn predict her children's early growth and obesity risk. Methods and Findings We tested associations between mother's age at menarche, mother's adult body size and obesity risk, and her children's growth and obesity risk in 6,009 children from the UK population-based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort who had growth and fat mass at age 9 y measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. A subgroup of 914 children also had detailed infancy and childhood growth data. In the mothers, earlier menarche was associated with shorter adult height (by 0.64 cm/y), increased weight (0.92 kg/y), and body mass index (BMI, 0.51 kg/m2/y; all p < 0.001). In contrast, in her children, earlier mother's menarche predicted taller height at 9 y (by 0.41 cm/y) and greater weight (0.80 kg/y), BMI (0.29 kg/m2/y), and fat mass index (0.22 kg/m2/year; all p < 0.001). Children in the earliest mother's menarche quintile (≤11 y) were more obese than the oldest quintile (≥15 y) (OR, 2.15, 95% CI 1.46 to 3.17; p < 0.001, adjusted for mother's education and BMI). In the subgroup, children in the earliest quintile showed faster gains in weight (p < 0.001) and height (p < 0.001) only from birth to 2 y, but not from 2 to 9 y (p = 0.3–0.8). Conclusions Earlier age at menarche may be a transgenerational marker of a faster growth tempo, characterised by rapid weight gain and growth, particularly during infancy, and leading to taller childhood stature, but likely earlier maturation and therefore shorter adult stature. This growth pattern confers increased childhood and adult obesity risks. PMID:17455989

Rising Energetic Cost of Walking Predicts Gait Speed Decline With Aging.

PubMed

Schrack, Jennifer A; Zipunnikov, Vadim; Simonsick, Eleanor M; Studenski, Stephanie; Ferrucci, Luigi

2016-07-01

Slow gait is a robust biomarker of health and a predictor of functional decline and death in older adults, yet factors contributing to the decline in gait speed with aging are not well understood. Previous research suggests that the energetic cost of walking at preferred speed is inversely associated with gait speed, but whether individuals with a rising energetic cost of walking experience a steeper rate of gait speed decline has not been investigated. In participants of the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, the energetic cost of overground walking at preferred speed (mL/kg/m) was assessed between 2007 and 2014 using a portable indirect calorimeter. The longitudinal association between the energetic cost of walking and usual gait speed over 6 meters (m/s) was assessed with multivariate linear regression models, and the risk of slow gait (<1.0 m/s) was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. The study population consisted of 457 participants aged 40 and older who contributed 1,121 person-visits to the analysis. In fully adjusted models, increases in the energetic cost of walking predicted the rate of gait speed decline in those older than 65 years (β = -0.008 m/s, p < .001). Moreover, those with a higher energetic cost of walking (>0.17mL/kg/m) had a 57% greater risk of developing slow gait compared with a normal energetic cost of walking (≤0.17mL/kg/m; adjusted hazard ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.01-2.46). These findings suggest that strategies to maintain walking efficiency hold significant implications for maintaining mobility in late life. Efforts to curb threats to walking efficiency should focus on therapies to treat gait and balance impairments, and reduce clinical disease burden. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessment of MRI-Based Automated Fetal Cerebral Cortical Folding Measures in Prediction of Gestational Age in the Third Trimester.

PubMed

Wu, J; Awate, S P; Licht, D J; Clouchoux, C; du Plessis, A J; Avants, B B; Vossough, A; Gee, J C; Limperopoulos, C

2015-07-01

Traditional methods of dating a pregnancy based on history or sonographic assessment have a large variation in the third trimester. We aimed to assess the ability of various quantitative measures of brain cortical folding on MR imaging in determining fetal gestational age in the third trimester. We evaluated 8 different quantitative cortical folding measures to predict gestational age in 33 healthy fetuses by using T2-weighted fetal MR imaging. We compared the accuracy of the prediction of gestational age by these cortical folding measures with the accuracy of prediction by brain volume measurement and by a previously reported semiquantitative visual scale of brain maturity. Regression models were constructed, and measurement biases and variances were determined via a cross-validation procedure. The cortical folding measures are accurate in the estimation and prediction of gestational age (mean of the absolute error, 0.43 ± 0.45 weeks) and perform better than (P = .024) brain volume (mean of the absolute error, 0.72 ± 0.61 weeks) or sonography measures (SDs approximately 1.5 weeks, as reported in literature). Prediction accuracy is comparable with that of the semiquantitative visual assessment score (mean, 0.57 ± 0.41 weeks). Quantitative cortical folding measures such as global average curvedness can be an accurate and reliable estimator of gestational age and brain maturity for healthy fetuses in the third trimester and have the potential to be an indicator of brain-growth delays for at-risk fetuses and preterm neonates. © 2015 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Negative perceptions of ageing predict the onset and persistence of depression and anxiety: Findings from a prospective analysis of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).

PubMed

Freeman, Aislinné Theresa; Santini, Ziggi Ivan; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Rummel-Kluge, Christine; Haro, Josep Maria; Koyanagi, Ai

2016-07-15

Although there is a growing literature on the adverse health outcomes related with negative ageing perceptions, studies on their association with mental disorders such as depression and anxiety are scarce. Thus, the aim of the current study was to prospectively assess the association between negative ageing perceptions and incident/persistent depression and anxiety using nationally representative data from Ireland. Data from two consecutive waves of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) were analysed. The analytical sample consisted of 6095 adults aged ≥50 years. Validated scales for negative ageing perceptions, depression, and anxiety were used. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between negative ageing perceptions at baseline and the onset and persistence of depression and anxiety at two-year follow up. After adjusting for potential confounders, negative ageing perceptions at baseline predicted the new onset of depression and anxiety at follow-up. Among those with depression or anxiety at baseline, negative ageing perceptions also predicted the persistence of these conditions at follow-up. Baseline data on negative ageing perceptions were used for the analysis and it is possible that scores could have changed over time. Addressing negative perceptions towards ageing by developing interventions that activate positive ageing perceptions, and target societal attitudes by means of policy change, public campaigns, and community education programmes, may shift social perceptions and reduce the burden of depression and anxiety among the elderly. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Age of acquisition predicts naming and lexical-decision performance above and beyond 22 other predictor variables: an analysis of 2,342 words.

PubMed

Cortese, Michael J; Khanna, Maya M

2007-08-01

Age of acquisition (AoA) ratings were obtained and were used in hierarchical regression analyses to predict naming and lexical-decision performance for 2,342 words (from Balota, Cortese, Sergent-Marshall, Spieler, & Yap, 2004). In the analyses, AoA was included in addition to the set of predictors used by Balota et al. (2004). AoA significantly predicted latency performance on both tasks above and beyond the standard predictor set. However, AoA was more strongly related to lexical-decision performance than to naming performance. Finally, the previously reported effect of imageability on naming latencies by Balota et al. was not significant with AoA included as a factor. These results are consistent with the idea either that AoA has a semantic/lexical locus or that AoA effects emerge primarily in situations in which the input-output mapping is arbitrary.

Action Prediction Allows Hypothesis Testing via Internal Forward Models at 6 Months of Age

PubMed Central

Gredebäck, Gustaf; Lindskog, Marcus; Juvrud, Joshua C.; Green, Dorota; Marciszko, Carin

2018-01-01

We propose that action prediction provides a cornerstone in a learning process known as internal forward models. According to this suggestion infants’ predictions (looking to the mouth of someone moving a spoon upward) will moments later be validated or proven false (spoon was in fact directed toward a bowl), information that is directly perceived as the distance between the predicted and actual goal. Using an individual difference approach we demonstrate that action prediction correlates with the tendency to react with surprise when social interactions are not acted out as expected (action evaluation). This association is demonstrated across tasks and in a large sample (n = 118) at 6 months of age. These results provide the first indication that infants might rely on internal forward models to structure their social world. Additional analysis, consistent with prior work and assumptions from embodied cognition, demonstrates that the latency of infants’ action predictions correlate with the infant’s own manual proficiency. PMID:29593600

Estimating the color of maxillary central incisors based on age and gender

PubMed Central

Gozalo-Diaz, David; Johnston, William M.; Wee, Alvin G.

2008-01-01

Statement of problem There is no scientific information regarding the selection of the color of teeth for edentulous patients. Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate linear regression models that may be used to predict color parameters for central incisors of edentulous patients based on some characteristics of dentate subjects. Material and methods A spectroradiometer and an external light source were set in a noncontacting 45/0 degree (45-degree illumination and 0-degree observer) optical configuration to measure the color of subjects’ vital craniofacial structures (maxillary central incisor, attached gingiva, and facial skin). The subjects (n=120) were stratified into 5 age groups with 4 racial groups and balanced for gender. Linear first-order regression was used to determine the significant factors (α=.05) in the prediction model for each color direction of the color of the maxillary central incisor. Age, gender, and color of the other craniofacial structures were studied as potential predictors. Final predictions in each color direction were based only on the statistically significant factors, and then the color differences between observed and predicted CIELAB values for the central incisors were calculated and summarized. Results The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 36% of the total variability in L*. The statistically significant predictor of age accounted for 16% of the total variability in a*. The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 21% of the variability in b*. The mean ΔE (SD) between predicted and observed CIELAB values for the central incisor was 5.8 (3.2). Conclusions Age and gender were found to be statistically significant determinants in predicting the natural color of central incisors. Although the precision of these predictions was less than the median color difference found for all pairs of teeth studied, and may be considered an acceptable precision, further

Perceptions of competence: age moderates views of healthy aging and Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Berry, Jane M; Williams, Helen L; Thomas, Kevin D; Blair, Jamie

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND/STUDY CONTEXT: Older adults have more complex and differentiated views of aging than do younger adults, but less is known about age-related perceptions of Alzheimer's disease. This study investigated age-related perceptions of competence of an older adult labeled as "in good health" (healthy) or "has Alzheimer's disease" (AD), using a person-perception paradigm. It was predicted that older adults would provide more differentiated assessments of the two targets than would younger adults. Younger (n=86; 18-36 years) and older (n=66; 61-95 years) adults rated activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and memory abilities of a female target aged 75 years, described as healthy or with AD. Data on anxiety about aging, knowledge of and experience with aging and AD, knowledge of memory aging, and positive and negative biases toward aging and AD were also collected. Older adults perceived the healthy target as more capable of cognitively effortful activities (e.g., managing finances) and as possessing better memory abilities than the AD target. As predicted, these differences were greater than differences between targets perceived by younger adults. The interaction effect remained significant after statistically controlling for relevant variables, including education and gender. Additionally, exploratory analyses revealed that older adults held less positively biased views of AD than younger adults, but negatively biased views were equivalent between age groups. The results demonstrate that mere labels of "healthy" and "Alzheimer's disease" produce significant and subtle age differences in perceived competencies of older adults, and that biases towards AD vary by age group and valence. Our findings extend the person-perception paradigm to an integrative analysis of aging and AD, are consistent with models of adult development, and complement current research and theory on stereotypes of aging. Future directions for research

Degree of Bilingualism Predicts Age of Diagnosis of Alzheimer’s Disease in Low-Education but not in Highly-Educated Hispanics

PubMed Central

Gollan, Tamar H.; Salmon, David P.; Montoya, Rosa I.; Galasko, Douglas R.

2011-01-01

The current study investigated the relationship between bilingual language proficiency and onset of probable Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in 44 Spanish-English bilinguals at the UCSD Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center. Degree of bilingualism along a continuum was measured using Boston Naming Test (BNT) scores in each language. Higher degrees of bilingualism were associated with increasingly later age-of-diagnosis (and age of onset of symptoms), but this effect was driven by participants with low education level (a significant interaction between years of education and bilingualism) most of whom (73%) were also Spanish-dominant. Additionally, only objective measures (i.e., BNT scores), not self-reported degree of bilingualism, predicted age-of-diagnosis even though objective and self-reported measures were significantly correlated. These findings establish a specific connection between knowledge of two languages and delay of AD onset, and demonstrate that bilingual effects can be obscured by interactions between education and bilingualism, and by failure to obtain objective measures of bilingualism. More generally, these data support analogies between the effects of bilingualism and “cognitive reserve” and suggest an upper limit on the extent to which reserve can function to delay dementia. PMID:22001315

On predicting the extent of magnetic aging in electrical steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, Santanu Kumar; Mohanty, Omkar Nath

1989-02-01

Magnetic aging of steels is essentially the result of an increase in coercive force, inhibition of ferrite domain wall movement by precipitated carbide particles being the main cause of this increase. In the present work, the nature of the carbides precipitating in four grades of electrical steels has been looked into. Existing postulations have been invoked to predict the extent of coercive force enhancement due to metastable (ɛ) and stable (cementite) carbides which have been observed to precipitate in these steels. The model of Drabecki and Wyslocki when applied to the case of metastable carbide predicts its contribution to the coercive force fairly accurately. None of the existing models, however, succeeds in suggesting the extent of the increases accruing from the presence of the stable carbide (cementite) particles. Each of the models takes into account only one or two of the isolated aspects of magnetic interaction between matrix and precipitate. It appears that for cementite, whose several magnetic characteristics are quite different from those of the ferrite matrix, all possible interaction parameters have to be taken into account to determine the actual mechanism.

Significance of a diagnosis of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance for Papanicolaou smears in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Keating, J T; Wang, H H

2001-04-25

The current study was conducted to determine the significance of a diagnosis of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women. The reports for all Papanicolaou (Pap) smears viewed in the study institution's cytology laboratory over a 6-month period were reviewed. Women were divided into premenopausal (age < or = 45 years), perimenopausal (ages 46-54 years), and postmenopausal (age > or = 55 years) categories. Slide review and 2-year follow-up were obtained for selected cases diagnosed as ASCUS. ASCUS cases among the perimenopausal women were compared with an age-matched control group. The total number of abnormal Pap smears in the premenopausal, perimenopausal, and postmenopausal categories were 770 (6.8%), 104 (4.3%), and 67 (2.9%), with 482, 83, and 41 diagnoses of ASCUS, respectively. The ratio of ASCUS to squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) was 2.2 overall and 1.9, 7.5, and 4.1, respectively, for each group (P < 0.001). The positive predictive value for a diagnosis of SIL on subsequent Pap smears or biopsies was 22%, 12.2%, and 29.7%, respectively. Slide review showed that the premenopausal ASCUS cases appeared to have a higher percentage of nuclear-cytoplasmic ratio increase and nuclear membrane irregularities compared with the other categories (P = 0.03 and P = 0.02, respectively) and the perimenopausal group was found to have more ASCUS in metaplastic cells (P = 0.03). In perimenopausal women, slides diagnosed as ASCUS demonstrated more air-drying artifact than the control group (P = 0.004) but had less obvious atrophy (P = 0.01). Despite a decreased abnormality rate with increasing age, the results of the current study show that the perimenopausal and postmenopausal groups appear to have elevated ASCUS-to-SIL ratios. ASCUS appears to have a particularly low positive predictive value for SIL in perimenopausal women, and therefore most likely is overcalled in this age group. This may be attributable

Umbilical cord blood bilirubins, gestational age, and maternal race predict neonatal hyperbilirubinemia.

PubMed

Castillo, Adrian; Grogan, Tristan R; Wegrzyn, Grace H; Ly, Karrie V; Walker, Valencia P; Calkins, Kara L

2018-01-01

No validated biomarker at birth exists to predict which newborns will develop severe hyperbilirubinemia. This study's primary aim was to build and validate a prediction model for severe hyperbilirubinemia using umbilical cord blood bilirubins (CBB) and risk factors at birth in neonates at risk for maternal-fetal blood group incompatibility. This study's secondary aim was to compare the accuracy of CBB to the direct antigen titer. Inclusion criteria for this prospective cohort study included: ≥35 weeks gestational age, mother with blood type O and/or Rh negative or positive antibody screen, and <24 hours of age. The primary outcome was severe hyperbilirubinemia, defined as phototherapy during the initial hospital stay. Secondary outcomes were a total serum bilirubin concentration >95th and >75th percentile during the initial hospital stay. The predictive performance and accuracy of the two tests (CBB and direct antigen titer) for each outcome was assessed using area under a receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. When compared to neonates who did not receive phototherapy (n = 463), neonates who received phototherapy (n = 36) had a greater mean CBB ± standard deviation (2.5 ± 0.7 vs. 1.6 ± 0.4 mg/dL, p<0.001). For every 0.3 mg/dL increase in CBB, a neonate was 3.20 (95% confidence interval, 2.31-4.45), 2.10 (1.63-2.70), and 3.12 (2.44-3.99) times more likely to receive phototherapy or have a total serum bilirubin concentration >95th and >75th percentile, respectively. The AUC ± standard error (95% confidence interval) for CBB for phototherapy and a total serum bilirubin concentration >95th and >75th percentile was 0.89 ± 0.03 (0.82-0.95), 0.81 ± 0.04 (0.73-0.90), and 0.84 ± 0.02 (0.80-0.89), respectively. However, the AUC for gestational age and maternal Asian race for these outcomes was only 0.55 ± 0.05 (0.45-0.66), 0.66 ± 0.05 (0.56-0.76), and 0.57 ± 0.04 (0.05-0.64), respectively. When the CBB was combined with

Prediction of Cognitive Abilities at the Age of 5 Years Using Developmental Follow-Up Assessments at the Age of 2 and 3 Years in Very Preterm Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Potharst, Eva S.; Houtzager, Bregje A.; van Sonderen, Loekie; Tamminga, Pieter; Kok, Joke H.; Last, Bob F.; van Wassenaer, Aleid G.

2012-01-01

Aim: This study investigated prediction of separate cognitive abilities at the age of 5 years by cognitive development at the ages of both 2 and 3 years, and the agreement between these measurements, in very preterm children. Methods: Preterm children (n=102; 44 males; 58 females) with a gestational age less than 30 weeks and/or birthweight less…

Preschool predictors of school-age academic achievement in autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Miller, Lauren E; Burke, Jeffrey D; Troyb, Eva; Knoch, Kelley; Herlihy, Lauren E; Fein, Deborah A

2017-02-01

Characterization of academic functioning in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), particularly predictors of achievement, may have important implications for intervention. The current study aimed to characterize achievement profiles, confirm associations between academic ability and concurrent intellectual and social skills, and explore preschool predictors of school-age academic achievement in a sample of children with ASD. Children with ASD (n = 26) were evaluated at the approximate ages of two, four, and ten. Multiple regression was used to predict school-age academic achievement in reading and mathematics from both concurrent (i.e. school-age) and preschool variables. Children with ASD demonstrated a weakness in reading comprehension relative to word reading. There was a smaller difference between mathematics skills; math reasoning was lower than numerical operations, but this did not quite reach trend level significance. Concurrent IQ and social skills were associated with school-age academic achievement across domains. Preschool verbal abilities significantly predicted school-age reading comprehension, above and beyond concurrent IQ, and early motor functioning predicted later math skills. Specific developmental features of early ASD predict specific aspects of school-age achievement. Early intervention targeting language and motor skills may improve later achievement in this population.

Prediction of age and gender using digital radiographic method: A retrospective study.

PubMed

Poongodi, V; Kanmani, R; Anandi, M S; Krithika, C L; Kannan, A; Raghuram, P H

2015-08-01

To investigate age, sex based on gonial angle, width and breadth of the ramus of the mandible by digital orthopantomograph. A total of 200 panoramic radiographic images were selected. The age of the individuals ranged between 4 and 75 years of both the gender - males (113) and females (87) and selected radiographic images were measured using KLONK image measurement software tool with linear, angular measurement. The investigated radiographs were collected from the records of SRM Dental College, Department of Oral Medicine and Radiology. Radiographs with any pathology, facial deformities, if no observation of mental foramen, congenital deformities, magnification, and distortion were excluded. Mean, median, standard deviation, derived to check the first and third quartile, linear regression is used to check age and gender correlation with angle of mandible, height and width of the ramus of mandible. The radiographic method is a simpler and cost-effective method of age identification compared with histological and biochemical methods. Mandible is strongest facial bone after the skull, pelvic bone. It is validatory to predict age and gender by many previous studies. Radiographic and tomographic images have become an essential aid for human identification in forensic dentistry forensic dentists can choose the most appropriate one since the validity of age and gender estimation crucially depends on the method used and its proper application.

The prevalence of aortic stenosis in the elderly in Iceland and predictions for the coming decades: The AGES-Reykjavík study

PubMed Central

Danielsen, Ragnar; Aspelund, Thor; Harris, Tamara B.; Gudnason, Vilmundur

2016-01-01

Aims To evaluate the prevalence of significant aortic valve stenosis (AS) in a randomly selected study population of elderly individuals representing the general population of Iceland. Furthermore, to predict the number of individuals likely to have severe AS in the future. Methods and results Echocardiography and computed tomography (CT) data from individuals who participated in the AGES-Reykjavik study were used. Echocardiography data from 685 individuals (58% females) aged 67–95 years were available. In both sexes combined, the prevalence for severe AS, defined as an aortic valve area index of <0.6 cm2/m2, in the age groups <70, 70–79 and ≥80 years was 0.92%, 2.4% and 7.3%, respectively. A ROC analysis on the relation between the echocardiography data and the aortic valve calcium score on CT defined a score ≥500 to be indicative of severe AS. Subsequently, in a CT study cohort of 5256 individuals the prevalence of severe AS in the same age groups was 0.80%, 4.0% and 9.5%, respectively. Overall, the prevalence of severe AS by echocardiography and CT in individuals ≥70 years was 4.3% and 5.9%, respectively. A prediction on the number of elderly ≥70 years for the coming decades demonstrated that patients with severe AS will have increased 2.4 fold by the year 2040 and will more than triple by the year 2060. Conclusion This study, in a cohort of elderly individuals representative of the general population in a Nordic country, predicts that AS will be a large health problem in the coming decades. PMID:25171970

The prevalence of aortic stenosis in the elderly in Iceland and predictions for the coming decades: the AGES-Reykjavík study.

PubMed

Danielsen, Ragnar; Aspelund, Thor; Harris, Tamara B; Gudnason, Vilmundur

2014-10-20

To evaluate the prevalence of significant aortic valve stenosis (AS) in a randomly selected study population of elderly individuals representing the general population of Iceland. Furthermore, to predict the number of individuals likely to have severe AS in the future. Echocardiography and computed tomography (CT) data from individuals who participated in the AGES-Reykjavik study were used. Echocardiography data from 685 individuals (58% females) aged 67-95 years were available. In both sexes combined, the prevalence for severe AS, defined as an aortic valve area index of <0.6 cm2/m2, in the age groups<70, 70-79 and ≥80 years was 0.92%, 2.4% and 7.3%, respectively. A ROC analysis on the relation between the echocardiography data and the aortic valve calcium score on CT defined a score≥500 to be indicative of severe AS. Subsequently, in a CT study cohort of 5256 individuals the prevalence of severe AS in the same age groups was 0.80%, 4.0% and 9.5%, respectively. Overall, the prevalence of severe AS by echocardiography and CT in individuals≥70 years was 4.3% and 5.9%, respectively. A prediction on the number of elderly≥70 years for the coming decades demonstrated that patients with severe AS will have increased 2.4 fold by the year 2040 and will more than triple by the year 2060. This study, in a cohort of elderly individuals representative of the general population in a Nordic country, predicts that AS will be a large health problem in the coming decades. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Size of the thrombus in acute deep vein thrombosis and the significance of patients' age and sex.

PubMed

Kierkegaard, A

1981-01-01

To determine the significance of patients' age and sex on the size of the thrombus in acute deep vein thrombosis, 420 consecutive phlebograms with acute deep vein thrombosis were studied. A significant correlation between the size of the thrombus and increasing age of the patient as well as the sex of male was noted. It is concluded that older patients and men often are at a high risk of pulmonary embolism at the time of diagnosis.

Foveal threshold and photoreceptor integrity for prediction of visual acuity after intravitreal aflibercept on age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Sakai, Tsutomu; Okude, Sachiyo; Tsuneoka, Hiroshi

2018-01-01

To determine whether baseline foveal threshold and photoreceptor integrity can predict best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at 12 months after intravitreal aflibercept (IVA) therapy in eyes with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We evaluated 25 eyes of 25 patients with treatment-naïve neovascular AMD who received IVA once a month for 3 months, followed by once every 2 months for 8 months. BCVA, integrity of the external limiting membrane (ELM) or the ellipsoid zone (EZ) of the photoreceptors, and retinal sensitivity were determined before (baseline) and at 6 and 12 months after initial IVA. The average threshold foveal sensitivity and mean deviation within the central 10° were determined by Humphrey central 10-2 perimetry. Correlations between BCVA at 12 months and integrity of the ELM or EZ, foveal threshold, and mean deviation at each visit were determined. At 12 months, BCVA improved significantly from 0.20±0.23 to 0.10±0.22 logMAR (logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution) units, and foveal threshold and mean deviation improved significantly from 29.0±5.1 and -3.38±3.10 dB to 32.6±3.2 and -1.64±2.10 dB, respectively ( P =0.0009 and P =0.0021). At baseline, both foveal threshold and integrity of the ELM were significantly correlated with BCVA at 12 months ( P =0.0428 and P =0.0275). These results indicate that both integrity of the ELM and foveal threshold at baseline can predict BCVA after treatment for neovascular AMD. There is a possibility that these parameters can predict the efficacy of IVA in each case.

A comparison between the clinical significance and growth mixture modelling early change methods at predicting negative outcomes.

PubMed

Flood, Nicola; Page, Andrew; Hooke, Geoff

2018-05-03

Routine outcome monitoring benefits treatment by identifying potential no change and deterioration. The present study compared two methods of identifying early change and their ability to predict negative outcomes on self-report symptom and wellbeing measures. 1467 voluntary day patients participated in a 10-day group Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) program and completed the symptom and wellbeing measures daily. Early change, as defined by (a) the clinical significance method and (b) longitudinal modelling, was compared on each measure. Early change, as defined by the simpler clinical significance method, was superior at predicting negative outcomes than longitudinal modelling. The longitudinal modelling method failed to detect a group of deteriorated patients, and agreement between the early change methods and the final unchanged outcome was higher for the clinical significance method. Therapists could use the clinical significance early change method during treatment to alert them of patients at risk for negative outcomes, which in turn could allow therapists to prevent those negative outcomes from occurring.

First-trimester prediction of birth weight.

PubMed

Boucoiran, Isabelle; Djemli, Anissa; Taillefer, Catherine; Rypens, Françoise; Delvin, Edgard; Audibert, François

2013-09-01

To determine whether the parameters used in first-trimester screening for aneuploidies contribute significantly to the prediction of birth weight. In this retrospective cohort study (n = 4110), nuchal translucency (NT), free β-chorionic gonadotropin (fβ-hCG), and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) blood concentrations were measured between 11 + 0 and 13 + 6 weeks. Multiple pregnancies, chromosomal anomalies, major fetal defects, and deliveries before 24 weeks were excluded. NT (0.95 versus 0.98 multiples of the expected median [MoM], p < 0.001) and PAPP-A (0.93 versus 1.06 MoM, p = 0.005) were significantly lower in small-for-gestational-age (SGA) newborns (<10th percentile) than the unaffected group, but not fβ-hCG (0.89 versus 0.93 MoM, p = 0.113). NT was significantly higher (1.03 versus 0.98 MoM, p < 0.001) in the large-for-gestational-age (LGA) group (>90th percentile) compared with the unaffected group, and biomarkers did not differ. After controlling for gestational age, maternal weight, smoking status, ethnicity, and fetal sex, first-trimester markers contributed to the prediction of birth weight in a multiple linear model but did not significantly improved the prediction of SGA and LGA compared with maternal characteristics alone. Parameters used in first-trimester screening for aneuploidies contribute to the prediction of birth weight but their clinical utility to detect women at risk of SGA or LGA baby is limited. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Do Fathers' Home Reading Practices at Age 2 Predict Child Language and Literacy at Age 4?

PubMed

Quach, Jon; Sarkadi, Anna; Napiza, Natasha; Wake, Melissa; Loughman, Amy; Goldfeld, Sharon

2018-03-01

Maternal shared reading practices predict emergent literacy, but fathers' contributions are less certain. We examined whether fathers' shared home reading activities at 2 years predict language and emergent literacy at age 4 years, when controlling for maternal contributions; and whether this differentially benefits these outcomes in disadvantaged children. Two-parent families were recruited from 5 relatively disadvantaged communities for the universal Let's Read literacy promotion population-based trial (ISRCTN 04602902) in Melbourne, Australia. For exposure at 2 years, home reading practices were recorded via self-reported maternal and paternal StimQ-Toddler questionnaires and dichotomized at study median (high vs low). At 4 years, outcomes assessed included receptive and expressive language (Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals 4) and emergent literacy (Sunderland Phonological Awareness Test-Revised). Linear regression, adjusted for mothers' home reading, was performed to assess 2-year-old vocabulary and communication skills and family disadvantage. Interaction of disadvantage (yes vs no) with high home reading by fathers and at least one parent was assessed. Data were available for 405 families (64.3%). High father reading at 2 years (reference: low) predicted better expressive (mean difference, 4.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 8.0) and receptive (mean difference, 5.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.8 to 8.2) language at 4 years (both P < .001), but not emergent literacy skills. Similar patterns were observed in families with at least one parent with high home reading. Fathers' reading did not differentially benefit outcomes in disadvantaged children. Fathers' involvement in reading at 2 years predicted better language but not emergent literacy at 4 years, and it did not protect against adverse effects of socioeconomic disadvantage. Copyright © 2018 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Individual-Tree Growth and Yield Prediction System for Uneven-Aged Shortleaf Pine Stands

Treesearch

Michael M. Huebschmann; Lawrence R. Gering; Thomas B. Lynch; Onesphore Bitoki; Paul A. Murphy

2000-01-01

A system of equations modeling the growth and development of uneven-aged shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) stands is described. The prediction system consists of two main components: (1) a distance-independent, individual-tree simulator containing equations that forecast ingrowth, basal-area growth, probability of survival, total and...

Multi-tissue DNA methylation age predictor in mouse.

PubMed

Stubbs, Thomas M; Bonder, Marc Jan; Stark, Anne-Katrien; Krueger, Felix; von Meyenn, Ferdinand; Stegle, Oliver; Reik, Wolf

2017-04-11

DNA methylation changes at a discrete set of sites in the human genome are predictive of chronological and biological age. However, it is not known whether these changes are causative or a consequence of an underlying ageing process. It has also not been shown whether this epigenetic clock is unique to humans or conserved in the more experimentally tractable mouse. We have generated a comprehensive set of genome-scale base-resolution methylation maps from multiple mouse tissues spanning a wide range of ages. Many CpG sites show significant tissue-independent correlations with age which allowed us to develop a multi-tissue predictor of age in the mouse. Our model, which estimates age based on DNA methylation at 329 unique CpG sites, has a median absolute error of 3.33 weeks and has similar properties to the recently described human epigenetic clock. Using publicly available datasets, we find that the mouse clock is accurate enough to measure effects on biological age, including in the context of interventions. While females and males show no significant differences in predicted DNA methylation age, ovariectomy results in significant age acceleration in females. Furthermore, we identify significant differences in age-acceleration dependent on the lipid content of the diet. Here we identify and characterise an epigenetic predictor of age in mice, the mouse epigenetic clock. This clock will be instrumental for understanding the biology of ageing and will allow modulation of its ticking rate and resetting the clock in vivo to study the impact on biological age.

Evaluation of PSA-age volume score in predicting prostate cancer in Chinese populationArticle Subject.

PubMed

Wu, Yi-Shuo; Wu, Xiao-Bo; Zhang, Ning; Jiang, Guang-Liang; Yu, Yang; Tong, Shi-Jun; Jiang, Hao-Wen; Mao, Shan-Hua; Na, Rong; Ding, Qiang

2018-02-06

This study was performed to evaluate prostate-specific antigen-age volume (PSA-AV) scores in predicting prostate cancer (PCa) in a Chinese biopsy population. A total of 2355 men who underwent initial prostate biopsy from January 2006 to November 2015 in Huashan Hospital were recruited in the current study. The PSA-AV scores were calculated and assessed together with PSA and PSA density (PSAD) retrospectively. Among 2133 patients included in the analysis, 947 (44.4%) were diagnosed with PCa. The mean age, PSA, and positive rates of digital rectal examination result and transrectal ultrasound result were statistically higher in men diagnosed with PCa (all P < 0.05). The values of area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of PSAD and PSA-AV were 0.864 and 0.851, respectively, in predicting PCa in the entire population, both performed better than PSA (AUC = 0.805; P < 0.05). The superiority of PSAD and PSA-AV was more obvious in subgroup with PSA ranging from 2.0 ng ml-1 to 20.0 ng ml-1. A PSA-AV score of 400 had a sensitivity and specificity of 93.7% and 40.0%, respectively. In conclusion, the PSA-AV score performed equally with PSAD and was better than PSA in predicting PCa. This indicated that PSA-AV score could be a useful tool for predicting PCa in Chinese population.

Significance of Interactions of Low Molecular Weight Crystallin Fragments in Lens Aging and Cataract Formation*

PubMed Central

Santhoshkumar, Puttur; Udupa, Padmanabha; Murugesan, Raju; Sharma, K. Krishna

2008-01-01

Analysis of aged and cataract lenses shows the presence of increased amounts of crystallin fragments in the high molecular weight aggregates of water-soluble and water-insoluble fractions. However, the significance of accumulation and interaction of low molecular weight crystallin fragments in aging and cataract development is not clearly understood. In this study, 23 low molecular mass (<3.5-kDa) peptides in the urea-soluble fractions of young, aged, and aged cataract human lenses were identified by mass spectroscopy. Two peptides, αB-(1–18) (MDIAIHHPWIRRPFFPFH) and βA3/A1-(59–74) (SD(N)AYHIERLMSFRPIC), present in aged and cataract lens but not young lens, and a third peptide, γS-(167–178) (SPAVQSFRRIVE) present in all three lens groups were synthesized to study the effects of interaction of these peptides with intact α-, β-, and γ-crystallins and alcohol dehydrogenase, a protein used in aggregation studies. Interaction of αB-(1–18) and βA3/A1-(59–74) peptides increased the scattering of light by β- and γ-crystallin and alcohol dehydrogenase. The ability of α-crystallin subunits to function as molecular chaperones was significantly reduced by interaction with αB-(1–18) and βA3/A1-(59–74) peptides, whereas γS peptide had no effect on chaperone-like activity of α-crystallin. The βA3/A1-(59–74 peptide caused a 5.64-fold increase in αB-crystallin oligomeric mass and partial precipitation. Replacing hydrophobic residues in αB-(1–18) and βA3/A1-(59–74) peptides abolished their ability to induce crystallin aggregation and light scattering. Our study suggests that interaction of crystallin-derived peptides with intact crystallins could be a key event in age-related protein aggregation in lens and cataractogenesis. PMID:18227073

Age, Gender, and Fine-Grained Ethnicity Prediction using Convolutional Neural Networks for the East Asian Face Dataset

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Srinivas, Nisha; Rose, Derek C; Bolme, David S

This paper examines the difficulty associated with performing machine-based automatic demographic prediction on a sub-population of Asian faces. We introduce the Wild East Asian Face dataset (WEAFD), a new and unique dataset to the research community. This dataset consists primarily of labeled face images of individuals from East Asian countries, including Vietnam, Burma, Thailand, China, Korea, Japan, Indonesia, and Malaysia. East Asian turk annotators were uniquely used to judge the age and fine grain ethnicity attributes to reduce the impact of the other race effect and improve quality of annotations. We focus on predicting age, gender and fine-grained ethnicity ofmore » an individual by providing baseline results with a convolutional neural network (CNN). Finegrained ethnicity prediction refers to predicting ethnicity of an individual by country or sub-region (Chinese, Japanese, Korean, etc.) of the East Asian continent. Performance for two CNN architectures is presented, highlighting the difficulty of these tasks and showcasing potential design considerations that ease network optimization by promoting region based feature extraction.« less

The Relative Importance of Family History, Gender, Mode of Onset, and Age at Onsetin Predicting Clinical Features of First-Episode Psychotic Disorders.

PubMed

Compton, Michael T; Berez, Chantal; Walker, Elaine F

Family history of psychosis, gender, mode of onset, and age at onset are considered prognostic factors important to clinicians evaluating first-episode psychosis; yet, clinicians have little guidance as to how these four factors differentially predict early-course substance abuse, symptomatology, and functioning. We conducted a "head-to-head comparison" of these four factors regarding their associations with key clinical features at initial hospitalization. We also assessed potential interactions between gender and family history with regard to age at onset of psychosis and symptom severity. Consecutively admitted first-episode patients (n=334) were evaluated in two studies that rigorously assessed a number of early-course variables. Associations among variables of interest were examined using Pearson correlations, χ 2 tests, Student's t-tests, and 2×2 factorial analyses of variance. Substance (nicotine, alcohol, and cannabis) abuse and positive symptom severity were predicted only by male gender. Negative symptom severity and global functioning impairments were predicted by earlier age at onset of psychosis. General psychopathology symptom severity was predicted by both mode of onset and age at onset. Interaction effects were not observed with regard to gender and family history in predicting age at onset or symptom severity. The four prognostic features have differential associations with substance abuse, domains of symptom severity, and global functioning. Gender and age at onset of psychosis appear to be more predictive of clinical features at the time of initial evaluation (and thus presumably longer term outcomes) than the presence of a family history of psychosis and a more gradual mode of onset.

Age predicts cardiovascular, but not thermoregulatory, responses to humid heat stress.

PubMed

Havenith, G; Inoue, Y; Luttikholt, V; Kenney, W L

1995-01-01

Cross-section comparisons of the effect of age on physiological responses to heat stress have yielded conflicting results, in part because of the inability to separate chronological age from factors which change in concert with the biological aging process. The present study was designed to examine the relative influence of age on cardiovascular and thermoregulatory responses to low intensity cycle exercise (60 W for 1 h) in a warm humid environment (35 degrees C, 80% relative humidity). Specifically, the relative importance of age compared to other individual characteristics [maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max), physical activity level, anthropometry, and adiposity] was determined by multiple regression analysis in a heterogeneous sample of 56 subjects in which age (20-73 years) and VO2max (1.86-4.44 l.min-1) were not interrelated. Dependent variables (with ranges) included final values of thermoregulatory responses [rectal temperature (Tre, 37.8-39.2 degrees C), calculated heat storage (S, 3.4-8.1 J.g-1), sweat loss (238-847 g.m-2)] and cardiovascular responses [heart rate (HR, 94-176 beats.min-1), forearm blood flow (FBF, 5.3-31.3 ml.100 ml-1.min-1), mean arterial blood pressure (MAP, 68-122 mmHg), and forearm vascular conductance (FVC = FBF.MAP-1, 0.06-0.44 ml.100 ml-1.min-1.mmHg-1). Age had no significant influence on Tre, S, or sweat loss, all of which were closely related to VO2max. On the other hand, HR, MAP, FBF, and FVC were related to both age and VO2max. Anthropometric variables and adiposity had secondary, but statistically significant, effects on MAP, FBF, FVC, and sweat loss.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The Interaction Between Parenting and Children’s Cortisol Reactivity at Age Three Predicts Increases in Children’s Internalizing and Externalizing Symptoms at Age Six

PubMed Central

Barrios, Chelsey S.; Bufferd, Sara J.; Klein, Daniel N.; Dougherty, Lea R.

2017-01-01

Little is known about the role of stress reactivity in the emergence of psychopathology across early childhood. In this longitudinal study, we tested the hypothesis that child cortisol reactivity at age three moderates associations between early parenting and children’s internalizing and externalizing symptoms from age three to age six. 160 children were assessed at age three and 135 children were reassessed at age six. At age three, we exposed children to stress-inducing laboratory tasks, during which we obtained four salivary cortisol samples, and parental hostility was assessed using an observational parent-child interaction task. At ages three and six, child psychiatric symptoms were assessed using a clinical interview with parents. Results indicated that the combination of high child cortisol reactivity and high observed parental hostility at age three was associated with greater concurrent externalizing symptoms at age three and predicted increases in internalizing and externalizing symptoms from age three to age six. Findings highlight that increased stress reactivity, within the context of hostile parenting, plays a role in the emergence of psychopathology from preschool to school entry. PMID:28290253

Mothers' Cognitive References to 2-Year-Olds Predict Theory of Mind at Ages 6 and 10

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ensor, Rosie; Devine, Rory T.; Marks, Alex; Hughes, Claire

2014-01-01

Mothers' mental-state references predict individual differences in preschoolers' false-belief (FB) understanding; less is known about the origins of corresponding variation in school-age children. To address this gap, 105 children completed observations with their mothers at child ages 2 and 6, three FB tasks and a verbal comprehension…

Relations between Preschool Attention Span-Persistence and Age 25 Educational Outcomes.

PubMed

McClelland, Megan M; Acock, Alan C; Piccinin, Andrea; Rhea, Sally Ann; Stallings, Michael C

2013-04-01

This study examined relations between children's attention span-persistence in preschool and later school achievement and college completion. Children were drawn from the Colorado Adoption Project using adopted and non-adopted children ( N = 430). Results of structural equation modeling indicated that children's age 4 attention span-persistence significantly predicted math and reading achievement at age 21 after controlling for achievement levels at age 7, adopted status, child vocabulary skills, gender, and maternal education level. Relations between attention span-persistence and later achievement were not fully mediated by age 7 achievement levels. Logistic regressions also revealed that age 4 attention span-persistence skills significantly predicted the odds of completing college by age 25. The majority of this relationship was direct and was not significantly mediated by math or reading skills at age 7 or age 21. Specifically, children who were rated one standard deviation higher on attention span-persistence at age 4 had 48.7% greater odds of completing college by age 25. Discussion focuses on the importance of children's early attention span-persistence for later school achievement and educational attainment.

Predicting Homelessness among Emerging Adults Aging Out of Foster Care.

PubMed

Shah, Melissa Ford; Liu, Qinghua; Mark Eddy, J; Barkan, Susan; Marshall, David; Mancuso, David; Lucenko, Barbara; Huber, Alice

2017-09-01

This study examines risk and protective factors associated with experiencing homelessness in the year after "aging out" of foster care. Using a state-level integrated administrative database, we identified 1,202 emerging adults in Washington State who exited foster care between July 2010 and June 2012. Initial bivariate analyses were conducted to assess the association between candidate predictive factors and an indicator of homelessness in a 12-month follow-up period. After deploying a stepwise regression process, the final logistic regression model included 15 predictive factors. Youth who were parents, who had recently experienced housing instability, or who were African American had approximately twice the odds of experiencing homelessness in the year after exiting foster care. In addition, youth who had experienced disrupted adoptions, had multiple foster care placements (especially in congregate care settings), or had been involved with the juvenile justice system were more likely to become homeless. In contrast, youth were less likely to experience homelessness if they had ever been placed with a relative while in foster care or had a high cumulative grade point average relative to their peers. © Society for Community Research and Action 2016.

The value of genetic information for diabetes risk prediction - differences according to sex, age, family history and obesity.

PubMed

Mühlenbruch, Kristin; Jeppesen, Charlotte; Joost, Hans-Georg; Boeing, Heiner; Schulze, Matthias B

2013-01-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with type 2 diabetes through the past years. In previous studies, the usefulness of these genetic markers for prediction of diabetes was found to be limited. However, differences may exist between substrata of the population according to the presence of major diabetes risk factors. This study aimed to investigate the added predictive value of genetic information (42 single nucleotide polymorphisms) in subgroups of sex, age, family history of diabetes, and obesity. A case-cohort study (random subcohort N = 1,968; incident cases: N = 578) within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Potsdam study was used. Prediction models without and with genetic information were evaluated in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the integrated discrimination improvement. Stratified analyses included subgroups of sex, age (<50 or ≥50 years), family history (positive if either father or mother or a sibling has/had diabetes), and obesity (BMI< or ≥30 kg/m(2)). A genetic risk score did not improve prediction above classic and metabolic markers, but - compared to a non-invasive prediction model - genetic information slightly improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (difference [95%-CI]: 0.007 [0.002-0.011]). Stratified analyses showed stronger improvement in the older age group (0.010 [0.002-0.018]), the group with a positive family history (0.012 [0.000-0.023]) and among obese participants (0.015 [-0.005-0.034]) compared to the younger participants (0.005 [-0.004-0.014]), participants with a negative family history (0.003 [-0.001-0.008]) and non-obese (0.007 [0.000-0.014]), respectively. No difference was found between men and women. There was no incremental value of genetic information compared to standard non-invasive and metabolic markers. Our study suggests that inclusion of genetic

Physiologically-based, predictive analytics using the heart-rate-to-Systolic-Ratio significantly improves the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction compared to SIRS.

PubMed

Danner, Omar K; Hendren, Sandra; Santiago, Ethel; Nye, Brittany; Abraham, Prasad

2017-04-01

Enhancing the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment of severe sepsis by using physiologically-based, predictive analytical strategies has not been fully explored. We hypothesize assessment of heart-rate-to-systolic-ratio significantly increases the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction after emergency department (ED) presentation. We evaluated the records of 53,313 ED patients from a large, urban teaching hospital between January and June 2015. The HR-to-systolic ratio was compared to SIRS criteria for sepsis prediction. There were 884 patients with discharge diagnoses of sepsis, severe sepsis, and/or septic shock. Variations in three presenting variables, heart rate, systolic BP and temperature were determined to be primary early predictors of sepsis with a 74% (654/884) accuracy compared to 34% (304/884) using SIRS criteria (p < 0.0001)in confirmed septic patients. Physiologically-based predictive analytics improved the accuracy and expediency of sepsis identification via detection of variations in HR-to-systolic ratio. This approach may lead to earlier sepsis workup and life-saving interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Small-for-gestational age and large-for-gestational age thresholds to predict infants at risk of adverse delivery and neonatal outcomes: are current charts adequate? An observational study from the Born in Bradford cohort

PubMed Central

Norris, T; Johnson, W; Farrar, D; Tuffnell, D; Wright, J; Cameron, N

2015-01-01

Objectives Construct an ethnic-specific chart and compare the prediction of adverse outcomes using this chart with the clinically recommended UK-WHO and customised birth weight charts using cut-offs for small-for-gestational age (SGA: birth weight <10th centile) and large-for-gestational age (LGA: birth weight >90th centile). Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Born in Bradford (BiB) study, UK. Participants 3980 White British and 4448 Pakistani infants with complete data for gestational age, birth weight, ethnicity, maternal height, weight and parity. Main outcome measures Prevalence of SGA and LGA, using the three charts and indicators of diagnostic utility (sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC)) of these chart-specific cut-offs to predict delivery and neonatal outcomes and a composite outcome. Results In White British and Pakistani infants, the prevalence of SGA and LGA differed depending on the chart used. Increased risk of SGA was observed when using the UK-WHO and customised charts as opposed to the ethnic-specific chart, while the opposite was apparent when classifying LGA infants. However, the predictive utility of all three charts to identify adverse clinical outcomes was poor, with only the prediction of shoulder dystocia achieving an AUROC>0.62 on all three charts. Conclusions Despite being recommended in national clinical guidelines, the UK-WHO and customised birth weight charts perform poorly at identifying infants at risk of adverse neonatal outcomes. Being small or large may increase the risk of an adverse outcome; however, size alone is not sensitive or specific enough with current detection to be useful. However, a significant amount of missing data for some of the outcomes may have limited the power needed to determine true associations. PMID:25783424

Preschool Predictors of School-Age Academic Achievement in Autism Spectrum Disorder

PubMed Central

Miller, Lauren E.; Burke, Jeffrey D.; Troyb, Eva; Knoch, Kelley; Herlihy, Lauren E.; Fein, Deborah A.

2017-01-01

Objective Characterization of academic functioning in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), particularly predictors of achievement, may have important implications for intervention. The current study aimed to characterize achievement profiles, confirm associations between academic ability and concurrent intellectual and social skills, and explore preschool predictors of school-age academic achievement in a sample of children with ASD. Method Children with ASD (N = 26) were evaluated at the approximate ages of two, four, and ten years. Multiple regression was used to predict school-age academic achievement in reading and mathematics from both concurrent (i.e., school-age) and preschool variables. Results Children with ASD demonstrated a weakness in reading comprehension relative to word reading. There was a smaller difference between mathematics skills; math reasoning was lower than numerical operations, but this did not quite reach trend level significance. Concurrent IQ and social skills were associated with school-age academic achievement across domains. Preschool verbal abilities significantly predicted school-age reading comprehension, above and beyond concurrent IQ, and early motor functioning predicted later math skills. Conclusions Specific developmental features of early ASD predict specific aspects of school-age achievement. Early intervention targeting language and motor skills may improve later achievement in this population. PMID:27705180

Age adjusted hematopoietic stem cell transplant comorbidity index predicts survival in a T-cell depleted cohort.

PubMed

Saeed, Hayder; Yalamanchi, Swati; Liu, Meng; Van Meter, Emily; Gul, Zartash; Monohan, Gregory; Howard, Dianna; Hildebrandt, Gerhard C; Herzig, Roger

2018-02-01

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT) continues to evolve with the treatment in higher risk patient population. This practice mandates stringent update and validation of risk stratification prior to undergoing such a complex and potentially fatal procedure. We examined the adoption of the new comorbidity index (HCT-CI/Age) proposed by the Seattle group after the addition of age variable and compared it to the pre-transplant assessment of mortality (PAM) that already incorporates age as part of its evaluation criteria. A retrospective analysis of adult patients who underwent HCT at our institution from January 2010 through August 2014 was performed. Kaplan-Meier's curve, log-rank tests, Cox model and Pearson correlation was used in the analysis. Of the 114 patients that underwent allogeneic transplant in our institution, 75.4% were ≥40 years old. More than 58% had a DLCO ≤80%. Although scores were positively correlated (correlation coefficient 0.43, p < 0.001), HCT-CI/Age more accurately predicted 2-year overall survival (OS) and non-relapse mortality (NRM) in patients with lower (0-4) and higher (5-7) scores (52% and 36% versus 24% and 76%, p = 0.004, 0.003 respectively). PAM score did not reach statistical significance for difference in OS nor NRM between the low (<24) and high-risk (≥24) groups (p = 0.19 for both). Despite our small sample population, HCT-CI/Age was more discriminative to identify patients with poor outcome that might benefit from intensified management strategies or other therapeutic approaches rather than allogeneic HCT. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Older Adults' Online Dating Profiles and Successful Aging.

PubMed

Wada, Mineko; Mortenson, William Bennett; Hurd Clarke, Laura

2016-12-01

This study examined how relevant Rowe and Kahn's three criteria of successful aging were to older adults' self-portrayals in online dating profiles: low probability of disease and disability, high functioning, and active life engagement. In this cross-sectional study, 320 online dating profiles of older adults were randomly selected and coded based on the criteria. Logistic regression analyses determined whether age, gender, and race/ethnicity predicted self-presentation. Few profiles were indicative of successful aging due to the low prevalence of the first two criteria; the third criterion, however, was identified in many profiles. Native Americans were significantly less likely than other ethnic groups to highlight the first two criteria. Younger age predicted presenting the first criterion. Women's presentation of the third criterion remained significantly high with age. The findings suggest that the criteria may be unimportant to older adults when seeking partners, or they may reflect the exclusivity of this construct.

Significance of specificity of Tinetti B-POMA test and fall risk factor in third age of life.

PubMed

Avdić, Dijana; Pecar, Dzemal

2006-02-01

As for the third age, psychophysical abilities of humans gradually decrease, while the ability of adaptation to endogenous and exogenous burdens is going down. In 1987, "Harada" et al. (1) have found out that 9.5 million persons in USA have difficulties running daily activities, while 59% of them (which is 5.6 million) are older than 65 years in age. The study has encompassed 77 questioned persons of both sexes with their average age 71.73 +/- 5.63 (scope of 65-90 years in age), chosen by random sampling. Each patient has been questioned in his/her own home and familiar to great extent with the methodology and aims of the questionnaire. Percentage of questioned women was 64.94% (50 patients) while the percentage for men was 35.06% (27 patients). As for the value of risk factor score achieved conducting the questionnaire and B-POMA test, there are statistically significant differences between men and women, as well as between patients who fell and those who never did. As for the way of life (alone or in the community), there are no significant statistical differences. Average results gained through B-POMA test in this study are statistically significantly higher in men and patients who did not provide data about falling, while there was no statistically significant difference in the way of life. In relation to the percentage of maximum number of positive answers to particular questions, regarding gender, way of life and the data about falling, there were no statistically significant differences between the value of B-POMA test and the risk factor score (the questionnaire).

Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting carbon dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew D.; Sierra, Carlos A.

2018-03-01

The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. These dynamics, as well as processes such as the mixing of old and newly fixed carbon, have been studied using ecosystem models, but different assumptions regarding the carbon allocation strategies and other model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. We assessed the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the C cycling in vegetation. First, we described each model with a set of ordinary differential equations. Second, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find suitable parameters for the different model structures. And third, we calculated C stocks, release fluxes, radiocarbon values (based on the bomb spike), ages, and transit times. We obtained model simulations in accordance with the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed, and reduce model equifinality. Although the simulated C stocks in ecosystem compartments were similar, the different model structures resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of two storage compartments resulted in the prediction of a system mean age that was 12-20 years older than in the models with one or no storage compartments. The age of carbon in the wood compartment of this model was also distributed towards older ages, whereas fast cycling compartments had an age distribution that did not exceed 5 years. As expected, models with C distributed towards older ages also had longer transit times. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure

Biomarker Surrogates Do Not Accurately Predict Sputum Eosinophils and Neutrophils in Asthma

PubMed Central

Hastie, Annette T.; Moore, Wendy C.; Li, Huashi; Rector, Brian M.; Ortega, Victor E.; Pascual, Rodolfo M.; Peters, Stephen P.; Meyers, Deborah A.; Bleecker, Eugene R.

2013-01-01

Background Sputum eosinophils (Eos) are a strong predictor of airway inflammation, exacerbations, and aid asthma management, whereas sputum neutrophils (Neu) indicate a different severe asthma phenotype, potentially less responsive to TH2-targeted therapy. Variables such as blood Eos, total IgE, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) or FEV1% predicted, may predict airway Eos, while age, FEV1%predicted, or blood Neu may predict sputum Neu. Availability and ease of measurement are useful characteristics, but accuracy in predicting airway Eos and Neu, individually or combined, is not established. Objectives To determine whether blood Eos, FeNO, and IgE accurately predict sputum eosinophils, and age, FEV1% predicted, and blood Neu accurately predict sputum neutrophils (Neu). Methods Subjects in the Wake Forest Severe Asthma Research Program (N=328) were characterized by blood and sputum cells, healthcare utilization, lung function, FeNO, and IgE. Multiple analytical techniques were utilized. Results Despite significant association with sputum Eos, blood Eos, FeNO and total IgE did not accurately predict sputum Eos, and combinations of these variables failed to improve prediction. Age, FEV1%predicted and blood Neu were similarly unsatisfactory for prediction of sputum Neu. Factor analysis and stepwise selection found FeNO, IgE and FEV1% predicted, but not blood Eos, correctly predicted 69% of sputum Eosage, asthma duration and blood neutrophils correctly predicted 64% of sputum Neupredict both sputum Eos and Neu accurately assigned only 41% of samples. Conclusion Despite statistically significant associations FeNO, IgE, blood Eos and Neu, FEV1%predicted, and age are poor surrogates, separately and combined, for accurately predicting sputum eosinophils and neutrophils. PMID:23706399

Purchase or Pirate: Is Ethical Ideology or Age More Effective at Predicting Acquisition Choice for Online Music?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Steven W.

2013-01-01

A study using 454 respondents recruited through SurveyMonkey were used to quantitatively test whether age or ethical position is better able to predict purchasing rates for digital music acquisition. The respondents had an age range from 18 to 80 and lived in the United States. The sample had a diverse and representative geographic and economic…

Age at treatment predicts reason for discontinuation of TNF antagonists: data from the BIOBADASER 2.0 registry.

PubMed

Busquets, Noemí; Tomero, Eva; Descalzo, Miguel Ángel; Ponce, Andrés; Ortiz-Santamaría, Vera; Surís, Xavier; Carmona, Loreto; Gómez-Reino, Juan J

2011-11-01

To assess the retention rate of TNF antagonists in elderly patients suffering from chronic arthropathies and to identify predictive variables of discontinuation by inefficacy or by adverse events (AEs). All patients treated with TNF antagonists in BIOBADASER 2.0, with a diagnosis of either RA or spondyloarthritis (SpA: AS and PsA) were included and classified as <65 (younger) or ≥65 years of age (older) at start of the treatment. Cumulative incidence function for discontinuation (inefficacy or AE) was estimated as being the alternative reason for a competing risk. Competing-risks regression models were used to measure the association between study groups, covariates and reason for discontinuation. A total of 4851 patients were studied; 2957 RA (2291 in the younger group and 666 in the older group) and 1894 SpA (1795 in the younger group and 99 in the older group). Retention curves were statistically differently stratified by age groups, with the SpA younger group having the largest retention rate. Competing-risks regression models showed that in the older group, AEs were the most common reason for discontinuation regardless of the diagnosis of the patient and TNF antagonist molecule, whereas in the younger group, the most common cause of discontinuation was inefficacy. In conclusion, factors predicting discontinuation of TNF antagonists due to AEs are older age and diagnosis of RA. On the other hand, younger age predicts discontinuation due to lack of efficacy.

Prediction of Anxiety Symptoms in Preschool-Aged Children: Examination of Maternal and Paternal Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Susan L.; Rapee, Ronald M.; Kennedy, Susan

2010-01-01

Background: Little is known about risk factors for anxiety in young children. The current study investigated the value of a set of theoretically derived risk factors to predict symptoms of anxiety in a sample of preschool-aged children. Methods: Mothers (n = 632) and fathers (n = 249) completed questionnaires twice, 12 months apart. Measures were…

Development of an aerobic capacity prediction model from one-mile run/walk performance in adolescents aged 13-16 years.

PubMed

Burns, Ryan D; Hannon, James C; Brusseau, Timothy A; Eisenman, Patricia A; Shultz, Barry B; Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Welk, Gregory J; Mahar, Matthew T

2016-01-01

A popular algorithm to predict VO2Peak from the one-mile run/walk test (1MRW) includes body mass index (BMI), which manifests practical issues in school settings. The purpose of this study was to develop an aerobic capacity model from 1MRW in adolescents independent of BMI. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years. The 1MRW was administered on an outside track and a laboratory VO2Peak test was conducted using a maximal treadmill protocol. Multiple linear regression was employed to develop the prediction model. Results yielded the following algorithm: VO2Peak = 7.34 × (1MRW speed in m s(-1)) + 0.23 × (age × sex) + 17.75. The New Model displayed a multiple correlation and prediction error of R = 0.81, standard error of the estimate = 4.78 ml kg(-1) · min(-1), with measured VO2Peak and good criterion-referenced (CR) agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zone (Kappa = 0.62; percentage agreement = 84.4%; Φ = 0.62). The New Model was validated using k-fold cross-validation and showed homoscedastic residuals across the range of predicted scores. The omission of BMI did not compromise accuracy of the model. In conclusion, the New Model displayed good predictive accuracy and good CR agreement with measured VO2Peak in adolescents aged 13-16 years.

The Prognostic Significance of Sentinel Lymph Node Status for Patients with Thick Melanoma.

PubMed

Bello, Danielle M; Han, Gang; Jackson, Laura; Bulloch, Kaleigh; Ariyan, Stephan; Narayan, Deepak; Rothberg, Bonnie Gould; Han, Dale

2016-12-01

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is recommended for patients with intermediate-thickness melanoma, but the use of SLNB for patients with thick melanoma is debated. This report presents a single-institution study investigating factors predictive of sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis and outcome for thick-melanoma patients . A retrospective review of a single-institution database from 1997 to 2012 identified 147 patients with thick primary cutaneous melanoma (≥4 mm) who had an SLNB. Clinicopathologic characteristics were correlated with nodal status and outcome. The median age of the patients was 67 years, and 61.9 % of the patients were men. The median tumor thickness was 5.5 mm, and 54 patients (36.7 %) had a positive SLN. Multivariable analysis showed that only tumor thickness significantly predicted SLN metastasis (odds ratio 1.14; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.28; P = 0.02). The overall median follow-up period was 34.6 months. Overall survival (OS) and melanoma-specific survival (MSS) were significantly worse for the positive versus negative-SLN patients. Multivariable analysis showed that age [hazard ratio (HR) 1.04; 95 % CI 1.01-1.07; P = 0.02] and SLN status (HR 2.24; 95 % CI 1.03-4.88; P = 0.04) significantly predicted OS, whereas only SLN status (HR 3.85; 95 % CI 2.13-6.97; P < 0.01) significantly predicted MSS. Tumor thickness predicts SLN status in thick melanomas. Furthermore, SLN status is prognostic for OS and MSS in thick-melanoma patients, with positive-SLN patients having significantly worse OS and MSS. These findings show that SLNB should be recommended for thick-melanoma patients, particularly because detection of SLN metastasis can identify patients for potential systemic therapy and treatment of nodal disease at a microscopic stage.

A Deep Learning Algorithm for Prediction of Age-Related Eye Disease Study Severity Scale for Age-Related Macular Degeneration from Color Fundus Photography.

PubMed

Grassmann, Felix; Mengelkamp, Judith; Brandl, Caroline; Harsch, Sebastian; Zimmermann, Martina E; Linkohr, Birgit; Peters, Annette; Heid, Iris M; Palm, Christoph; Weber, Bernhard H F

2018-04-10

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a common threat to vision. While classification of disease stages is critical to understanding disease risk and progression, several systems based on color fundus photographs are known. Most of these require in-depth and time-consuming analysis of fundus images. Herein, we present an automated computer-based classification algorithm. Algorithm development for AMD classification based on a large collection of color fundus images. Validation is performed on a cross-sectional, population-based study. We included 120 656 manually graded color fundus images from 3654 Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) participants. AREDS participants were >55 years of age, and non-AMD sight-threatening diseases were excluded at recruitment. In addition, performance of our algorithm was evaluated in 5555 fundus images from the population-based Kooperative Gesundheitsforschung in der Region Augsburg (KORA; Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) study. We defined 13 classes (9 AREDS steps, 3 late AMD stages, and 1 for ungradable images) and trained several convolution deep learning architectures. An ensemble of network architectures improved prediction accuracy. An independent dataset was used to evaluate the performance of our algorithm in a population-based study. κ Statistics and accuracy to evaluate the concordance between predicted and expert human grader classification. A network ensemble of 6 different neural net architectures predicted the 13 classes in the AREDS test set with a quadratic weighted κ of 92% (95% confidence interval, 89%-92%) and an overall accuracy of 63.3%. In the independent KORA dataset, images wrongly classified as AMD were mainly the result of a macular reflex observed in young individuals. By restricting the KORA analysis to individuals >55 years of age and prior exclusion of other retinopathies, the weighted and unweighted κ increased to 50% and 63%, respectively. Importantly, the algorithm

Prediction of troponin-T degradation using color image texture features in 10d aged beef longissimus steaks.

PubMed

Sun, X; Chen, K J; Berg, E P; Newman, D J; Schwartz, C A; Keller, W L; Maddock Carlin, K R

2014-02-01

The objective was to use digital color image texture features to predict troponin-T degradation in beef. Image texture features, including 88 gray level co-occurrence texture features, 81 two-dimension fast Fourier transformation texture features, and 48 Gabor wavelet filter texture features, were extracted from color images of beef strip steaks (longissimus dorsi, n = 102) aged for 10d obtained using a digital camera and additional lighting. Steaks were designated degraded or not-degraded based on troponin-T degradation determined on d 3 and d 10 postmortem by immunoblotting. Statistical analysis (STEPWISE regression model) and artificial neural network (support vector machine model, SVM) methods were designed to classify protein degradation. The d 3 and d 10 STEPWISE models were 94% and 86% accurate, respectively, while the d 3 and d 10 SVM models were 63% and 71%, respectively, in predicting protein degradation in aged meat. STEPWISE and SVM models based on image texture features show potential to predict troponin-T degradation in meat. © 2013.

Age-dependent prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of streptococcus pneumoniae before conjugate vaccine introduction: a prediction model based on a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Le Polain de Waroux, Olivier; Flasche, Stefan; Prieto-Merino, David; Edmunds, W John

2014-01-01

Data on the prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of S.pneumoniae in all age groups are important to help predict the impact of introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) into routine infant immunization, given the important indirect effect of the vaccine. Yet most carriage studies are limited to children under five years of age. We here explore the association between carriage prevalence and serotype distribution in children aged ≥5 years and in adults compared to children. We conducted a systematic review of studies providing carriage estimates across age groups in healthy populations not previously exposed to PCV, using MEDLINE and Embase. We used Bayesian linear meta-regression models to predict the overall carriage prevalence as well as the prevalence and distribution of vaccine and nonvaccine type (VT and NVT) serotypes in older age groups as a function of that in <5 y olds. Twenty-nine studies compromising of 20,391 individuals were included in the analysis. In all studies nasopharyngeal carriage decreased with increasing age. We found a strong positive linear association between the carriage prevalence in pre-school childen (<5 y) and both that in school aged children (5-17 y olds) and in adults. The proportion of VT serotypes isolated from carriers was consistently lower in older age groups and on average about 73% that of children <5 y among 5-17 y olds and adults respectively. We provide a prediction model to infer the carriage prevalence and serotype distribution in 5-17 y olds and adults as a function of that in children <5 years of age. Such predictions are helpful for assessing the potential population-wide effects of vaccination programmes, e.g. via transmission models, and thus assist in the design of future pneumococcal conjugate vaccination strategies.

Memory shaped by age stereotypes over time.

PubMed

Levy, Becca R; Zonderman, Alan B; Slade, Martin D; Ferrucci, Luigi

2012-07-01

Previous studies showed that negative self-stereotypes detrimentally affect the cognitive performance of marginalized group members; however, these findings were confined to short-term experiments. In the present study, we considered whether stereotypes predicted memory over time, which had not been previously examined. We also considered whether self-relevance increased the influence of stereotypes on memory over time. Multiple waves of memory performance were analyzed using individual growth models. The sample consisted of 395 participants in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. Those with more negative age stereotypes demonstrated significantly worse memory performance over 38 years than those with less negative age stereotypes, after adjusting for relevant covariates. The decline in memory performance for those aged 60 and above was 30.2% greater for the more negative age stereotype group than for the less negative age stereotype group. Also, the impact of age stereotypes on memory was significantly greater among those for whom the age stereotypes were self-relevant. This study shows that the adverse influence of negative self-stereotypes on cognitive performance is not limited to a short-term laboratory effect. Rather, the findings demonstrate, for the first time, that stereotypes also predict memory performance over an extended period in the community.

Memory Shaped by Age Stereotypes over Time

PubMed Central

Zonderman, Alan B.; Slade, Martin D.; Ferrucci, Luigi

2012-01-01

Objectives. Previous studies showed that negative self-stereotypes detrimentally affect the cognitive performance of marginalized group members; however, these findings were confined to short-term experiments. In the present study, we considered whether stereotypes predicted memory over time, which had not been previously examined. We also considered whether self-relevance increased the influence of stereotypes on memory over time. Method. Multiple waves of memory performance were analyzed using individual growth models. The sample consisted of 395 participants in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. Results. Those with more negative age stereotypes demonstrated significantly worse memory performance over 38 years than those with less negative age stereotypes, after adjusting for relevant covariates. The decline in memory performance for those aged 60 and above was 30.2% greater for the more negative age stereotype group than for the less negative age stereotype group. Also, the impact of age stereotypes on memory was significantly greater among those for whom the age stereotypes were self-relevant. Discussion. This study shows that the adverse influence of negative self-stereotypes on cognitive performance is not limited to a short-term laboratory effect. Rather, the findings demonstrate, for the first time, that stereotypes also predict memory performance over an extended period in the community. PMID:22056832

Teasing apart the relations between age, birth cohort, and vocational interests.

PubMed

Leuty, Melanie E; Hansen, Jo-Ida C

2014-04-01

Empirical evidence supports that aging is related to differences in work attitudes and motivation (Inceoglu, Segers, & Bartram, 2012; Kooij, de Lange, Jansen, Kanfer, & Kikkers, 2011; Ng & Feldman, 2008, 2010), but little research has explored the relations between age and vocational interests. Furthermore, recent studies of age and work attitudes suggest that generational experiences (i.e., birth year) may account for age differences in the workplace (Inceoglu et al., 2012; Ng & Feldman, 2008, 2010), which in turn suggests that researchers need to incorporate both age and birth cohort effects in their designs. Thus, this study was designed to explore the relations of age at the time of testing and birth year to vocational interests using a sample of adults (N = 1,792) collected over a period of 3 decades. As expected, age was not a significant predictor of most interests, but birth year also was not found to predict most interests, with the significant prediction of Realistic interests by both age and birth year being the exception. Gender, however, significantly predicted most areas of interests. Neither age nor gender moderated any relationships between birth year and interests. Results suggest that birth year and age were minimally related to interests as all effect sizes were small. Discussion of the results illustrates the need for further research on this issue and also offers considerations for attracting and retaining different generations of workers in light of the findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Can maintaining cognitive function at 65 years old predict successful ageing 6 years later? The PROOF study.

PubMed

Castro-Lionard, Karine; Thomas-Antérion, Catherine; Crawford-Achour, Emilie; Rouch, Isabelle; Trombert-Paviot, Béatrice; Barthélémy, Jean-Claude; Laurent, Bernard; Roche, Frédéric; Gonthier, Régis

2011-03-01

preservation of cognitive abilities is required to have a good quality of life. The predictive value of cognitive functioning at 65 years old on successful ageing 6 years later is not established. nine hundred and seventy-six questionnaires were sent by mail to a sample of healthy and voluntary French pensioners. Successful ageing was defined through health status and well-being. Cognitive abilities had been assessed 6 years earlier according to an objective method (Free and Cued Selective Recall Reminding Test (FCSRT), the Benton visual retention test and the similarities subtest of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised) and a subjective one (Goldberg's anxiety scale, Mac Nair's scale and a Visual Analogue Scale to evaluate memory abilities change in the last 5 years). six hundred and eighty-six questionnaires could be analysed. The mean age was 72.9 ± 1.2 years old with 59% of women and 99% lived at home. Well-being was negatively correlated with the FCSRT (r = -0.08, P = 0.0318) but positively related with the Benton (r = 0.09, P = 0.0125) and the similarities tests (r = 0.09, P = 0.0118). There is a negative correlation between anxious and cognitive complaints measured at baseline, and successful ageing indicators 6 years later. preservation of cognitive abilities at the age of retirement can predict a successful ageing 6 years later. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00759304.

Modified aging of elite athletes revealed by analysis of epigenetic age markers

PubMed Central

Spólnicka, Magdalena; Pośpiech, Ewelina; Adamczyk, Jakub Grzegorz; Freire-Aradas, Ana; Pepłońska, Beata; Zbieć-Piekarska, Renata; Makowska, Żanetta; Pięta, Anna; Lareu, Maria Victoria; Phillips, Christopher; Płoski, Rafał; Żekanowski, Cezary

2018-01-01

Recent progress in epigenomics has led to the development of prediction systems that enable accurate age estimation from DNA methylation data. Our objective was to track responses to intense physical exercise of individual age-correlated DNA methylation markers and to infer their potential impact on the aging processes. The study showed accelerated DNA hypermethylation for two CpG sites in TRIM59 and KLF14. Both markers predicted the investigated elite athletes to be several years older than controls and this effect was more substantial in subjects involved in power sports. Accordingly, the complete 5-CpG model revealed age acceleration of elite athletes (P=1.503x10-7) and the result was more significant amongst power athletes (P=1.051x10-9). The modified methylation of TRIM59 and KLF14 in top athletes may be accounted for by the biological roles played by these genes. Their known anti-tumour and anti-inflammatory activities suggests that intense physical training has a complex influence on aging and potentially launches signalling networks that contribute to the observed lower risk of elite athletes to develop cardiovascular disease and cancer. PMID:29466246

Modified aging of elite athletes revealed by analysis of epigenetic age markers.

PubMed

Spólnicka, Magdalena; Pośpiech, Ewelina; Adamczyk, Jakub Grzegorz; Freire-Aradas, Ana; Pepłońska, Beata; Zbieć-Piekarska, Renata; Makowska, Żanetta; Pięta, Anna; Lareu, Maria Victoria; Phillips, Christopher; Płoski, Rafał; Żekanowski, Cezary; Branicki, Wojciech

2018-02-15

Recent progress in epigenomics has led to the development of prediction systems that enable accurate age estimation from DNA methylation data. Our objective was to track responses to intense physical exercise of individual age-correlated DNA methylation markers and to infer their potential impact on the aging processes. The study showed accelerated DNA hypermethylation for two CpG sites in TRIM59 and KLF14 . Both markers predicted the investigated elite athletes to be several years older than controls and this effect was more substantial in subjects involved in power sports. Accordingly, the complete 5-CpG model revealed age acceleration of elite athletes ( P =1.503x10 -7 ) and the result was more significant amongst power athletes (P=1.051x10 -9 ). The modified methylation of TRIM59 and KLF14 in top athletes may be accounted for by the biological roles played by these genes. Their known anti-tumour and anti-inflammatory activities suggests that intense physical training has a complex influence on aging and potentially launches signalling networks that contribute to the observed lower risk of elite athletes to develop cardiovascular disease and cancer.

Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents.

PubMed

Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi

2014-01-01

to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users.

Time to first treatment: The significance of early treatment of exudative age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Rauch, Renate; Weingessel, Birgit; Maca, Saskia M; Vecsei-Marlovits, Pia V

2012-07-01

To determine whether the time span between initial symptoms and treatment with ranibizumab in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration has an effect on visual outcome. In this retrospective study, 45 patients with exudative age-related macular degeneration were split into 3 groups depending on the duration of visual symptoms--Group I: <1 month, Group II: 1 month to 6 months, and Group III: >6 months. Best-corrected visual acuity, clinical ophthalmologic examination, and central retinal thickness as measured by optical coherence tomography were recorded at baseline and 2 months later. Fluorescein angiography was performed at baseline. Treatment consisted of 2 intravitreal injections of 1.25 mg of ranibizumab at baseline and after 4 weeks. The mean time span between initial symptoms and treatment was 59 ± 62 days. In all groups, a reduction of retinal thickness was observed. Shorter disease duration, as estimated by persistence of visual symptoms, was correlated with a better visual outcome after treatment. Patients in Group I demonstrated a significant increase in best-corrected visual acuity (P = 0.007). Patients of Group II (P = 0.095) and Group III (P = 0.271) still achieved a visual improvement in best-corrected visual acuity, albeit not significant. The mean change in best-corrected visual acuity was 0.08 ± 0.1 in all patients and was not statistically significant between groups (P = 0.87). Duration of visual symptoms <1 month before treatment is associated with a better visual outcome. Treatment of new-onset wet age-related macular degeneration should be initiated as soon as possible.

Age and body satisfaction predict diet adherence in adolescents with Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

PubMed

Vlahou, Christina H; Cohen, Lindsey L; Woods, Amanda M; Lewis, Jeffrey D; Gold, Benjamin D

2008-12-01

The aim of the current study was to determine whether age and body satisfaction predict dietary adherence in adolescents with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), and whether older females are less adherent than younger males and females. Forty-four participants aged 10-21 with IBD were recruited. Participants provided informed consent and demographics. Body satisfaction was measured by a questionnaire and a task in which participants selected their current and ideal body image out of silhouettes depicting bodies ranging from underweight to obese. Adherence was measured by marking a 100 mm visual analog scale, the 1-week completion of a dietary log, and a questionnaire evaluating coping strategies used for overcoming obstacles to dietary adherence. Age was related to dietary adherence, with younger children being more likely to adhere. Participants more satisfied with their body reported better dietary adherence. Findings remained consistent across multiple measures of body satisfaction and adherence. Healthcare providers and parents should be informed of these findings in order to improve adherence.

Significance of peak height velocity as a predictive factor for curve progression in patients with idiopathic scoliosis

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Much attention has been paid to peak height velocity (PHV) as a possible predictor of curve progression in patients with idiopathic scoliosis (IS). The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between the magnitude of the Cobb angle at PHV and scoliosis progression, defined as having surgery prior to skeletal maturity in female patients with IS. Methods A retrospective review identified 56 skeletally immature female IS patients who were followed until maturity. The mean age and the mean pubertal status at the initial visit were 10 years and 24 months before menarche respectively, with a follow-up period of 5 years. They were divided into two groups: non-surgery group (NS) and surgery group (S), depending on their treatment method in use at the final follow-up visit. Surgery group was defined as an ultimately having surgery due to Cobb angle greater than 45 degrees prior to skeletal maturity regardless of conservative management. Height measurements were recorded at each visit; height velocity was calculated as the height change, in cm, divided by the time interval, in years. The PHV, chronological age at PHV (APHV), height at PHV (HPHV), and final height (FH) were determined for each group. In patients with Cobb angle greater than 30 degrees, the corrected height was calculated by Kono formula and corrected height velocity values were provided. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating -characteristic (ROC) analysis were calculated to predict spinal curve progression for various Cobb-angle cutoff values at PHV. Results The corrected PHV had a mean value of 8.5 and 8.9 cm/year in the NS-group and S-group, respectively. The APHV was 11.9 and 11 years, the corrected HPHV was 152.9, and 149.3 cm, and the corrected FH was 159.9 and 159.3 cm, respectively. When a Cobb angle of 31.5 degrees was at PHV, ROC analysis revealed 78% sensitivity, 82% specificity, and an AUC of 0.93, acceptable values for curve

Relations between Preschool Attention Span-Persistence and Age 25 Educational Outcomes

PubMed Central

McClelland, Megan M.; Acock, Alan C.; Piccinin, Andrea; Rhea, Sally Ann; Stallings, Michael C.

2012-01-01

This study examined relations between children’s attention span-persistence in preschool and later school achievement and college completion. Children were drawn from the Colorado Adoption Project using adopted and non-adopted children (N = 430). Results of structural equation modeling indicated that children’s age 4 attention span-persistence significantly predicted math and reading achievement at age 21 after controlling for achievement levels at age 7, adopted status, child vocabulary skills, gender, and maternal education level. Relations between attention span-persistence and later achievement were not fully mediated by age 7 achievement levels. Logistic regressions also revealed that age 4 attention span-persistence skills significantly predicted the odds of completing college by age 25. The majority of this relationship was direct and was not significantly mediated by math or reading skills at age 7 or age 21. Specifically, children who were rated one standard deviation higher on attention span-persistence at age 4 had 48.7% greater odds of completing college by age 25. Discussion focuses on the importance of children’s early attention span-persistence for later school achievement and educational attainment. PMID:23543916

Intraindividual Cognitive Variability in Middle Age Predicts Cognitive Impairment 8-10 Years Later: Results from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention.

PubMed

Koscik, Rebecca L; Berman, Sara E; Clark, Lindsay R; Mueller, Kimberly D; Okonkwo, Ozioma C; Gleason, Carey E; Hermann, Bruce P; Sager, Mark A; Johnson, Sterling C

2016-11-01

Intraindividual cognitive variability (IICV) has been shown to differentiate between groups with normal cognition, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and dementia. This study examined whether baseline IICV predicted subsequent mild to moderate cognitive impairment in a cognitively normal baseline sample. Participants with 4 waves of cognitive assessment were drawn from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention (WRAP; n=684; 53.6(6.6) baseline age; 9.1(1.0) years follow-up; 70% female; 74.6% parental history of Alzheimer's disease). The primary outcome was Wave 4 cognitive status ("cognitively normal" vs. "impaired") determined by consensus conference; "impaired" included early MCI (n=109), clinical MCI (n=11), or dementia (n=1). Primary predictors included two IICV variables, each based on the standard deviation of a set of scores: "6 Factor IICV" and "4 Test IICV". Each IICV variable was tested in a series of logistic regression models to determine whether IICV predicted cognitive status. In exploratory analyses, distribution-based cutoffs incorporating memory, executive function, and IICV patterns were used to create and test an MCI risk variable. Results were similar for the IICV variables: higher IICV was associated with greater risk of subsequent impairment after covariate adjustment. After adjusting for memory and executive functioning scores contributing to IICV, IICV was not significant. The MCI risk variable also predicted risk of impairment. While IICV in middle-age predicts subsequent impairment, it is a weaker risk indicator than the memory and executive function scores contributing to its calculation. Exploratory analyses suggest potential to incorporate IICV patterns into risk assessment in clinical settings. (JINS, 2016, 22, 1016-1025).

Sex-specific prediction of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity by pituitary volume during adolescence: a longitudinal study from 12 to 17 years of age.

PubMed

Kaess, Michael; Simmons, Julian G; Whittle, Sarah; Jovev, Martina; Chanen, Andrew M; Yücel, Murat; Pantelis, Christos; Allen, Nicholas B

2013-11-01

To investigate the longitudinal relationship between pituitary gland volume (PGV) and parameters of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPAA) functioning during adolescence. Participants were 49 adolescents (19 girls and 30 boys) selected from a larger longitudinal, population-based study of adolescent development. Assessments were conducted at three time points (S1, S2 and S3). MRI sessions were at S1 (age: M=12.62, SD=0.45 years) and S3 (M=16.48, SD=0.53 years) and multiple assessments of salivary cortisol were undertaken at S2 (M=15.51, SD=0.35 years). PGV was measured via previously validated manual tracing methods, and the cortisol awakening response (CAR) and diurnal slope (DSL) were used as indices of HPAA functioning. A significant sex-linked interaction was found for PGV at S1 predicting both CAR (p=0.025) and DSL (p=0.009) at S2. Specifically, PGV at S1 significantly predicted CAR (p=0.033) and DSL (p=0.010) in boys only, with no significant results found for girls. Neither CAR nor DSL at S2 predicted growth of PGV from S1 to S3. PGV in early adolescence predicted HPAA functioning in mid-adolescent boys but not in girls. The results suggest a significant influence of sex-specific development on the relationship between PGV and HPAA activity and reactivity. The findings have potential implications for understanding and interpreting sex-linked and stress related clinical disorders that emerge during mid-to-late adolescence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Histologic and biochemical alterations predict pulmonary mechanical dysfunction in aging mice with chronic lung inflammation

PubMed Central

Laskin, Debra L.; Gow, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

Both aging and chronic inflammation produce complex structural and biochemical alterations to the lung known to impact work of breathing. Mice deficient in surfactant protein D (Sftpd) develop progressive age-related lung pathology characterized by tissue destruction/remodeling, accumulation of foamy macrophages and alteration in surfactant composition. This study proposes to relate changes in tissue structure seen in normal aging and in chronic inflammation to altered lung mechanics using a computational model. Alterations in lung function in aging and Sftpd -/- mice have been inferred from fitting simple mechanical models to respiratory impedance data (Zrs), however interpretation has been confounded by the simultaneous presence of multiple coexisting pathophysiologic processes. In contrast to the inverse modeling approach, this study uses simulation from experimental measurements to recapitulate how aging and inflammation alter Zrs. Histologic and mechanical measurements were made in C57BL6/J mice and congenic Sftpd-/- mice at 8, 27 and 80 weeks of age (n = 8/group). An anatomic computational model based on published airway morphometry was developed and Zrs was simulated between 0.5 and 20 Hz. End expiratory pressure dependent changes in airway caliber and recruitment were estimated from mechanical measurements. Tissue elements were simulated using the constant phase model of viscoelasticity. Baseline elastance distribution was estimated in 8-week-old wild type mice, and stochastically varied for each condition based on experimentally measured alteration in elastic fiber composition, alveolar geometry and surfactant composition. Weighing reduction in model error against increasing model complexity allowed for identification of essential features underlying mechanical pathology and their contribution to Zrs. Using a maximum likelihood approach, alteration in lung recruitment and diminished elastic fiber density were shown predictive of mechanical alteration at

Histologic and biochemical alterations predict pulmonary mechanical dysfunction in aging mice with chronic lung inflammation.

PubMed

Massa, Christopher B; Groves, Angela M; Jaggernauth, Smita U; Laskin, Debra L; Gow, Andrew J

2017-08-01

Both aging and chronic inflammation produce complex structural and biochemical alterations to the lung known to impact work of breathing. Mice deficient in surfactant protein D (Sftpd) develop progressive age-related lung pathology characterized by tissue destruction/remodeling, accumulation of foamy macrophages and alteration in surfactant composition. This study proposes to relate changes in tissue structure seen in normal aging and in chronic inflammation to altered lung mechanics using a computational model. Alterations in lung function in aging and Sftpd -/- mice have been inferred from fitting simple mechanical models to respiratory impedance data (Zrs), however interpretation has been confounded by the simultaneous presence of multiple coexisting pathophysiologic processes. In contrast to the inverse modeling approach, this study uses simulation from experimental measurements to recapitulate how aging and inflammation alter Zrs. Histologic and mechanical measurements were made in C57BL6/J mice and congenic Sftpd-/- mice at 8, 27 and 80 weeks of age (n = 8/group). An anatomic computational model based on published airway morphometry was developed and Zrs was simulated between 0.5 and 20 Hz. End expiratory pressure dependent changes in airway caliber and recruitment were estimated from mechanical measurements. Tissue elements were simulated using the constant phase model of viscoelasticity. Baseline elastance distribution was estimated in 8-week-old wild type mice, and stochastically varied for each condition based on experimentally measured alteration in elastic fiber composition, alveolar geometry and surfactant composition. Weighing reduction in model error against increasing model complexity allowed for identification of essential features underlying mechanical pathology and their contribution to Zrs. Using a maximum likelihood approach, alteration in lung recruitment and diminished elastic fiber density were shown predictive of mechanical alteration at

Weather chains during the 2013/2014 winter and their significance for seasonal prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Huw C.

2015-11-01

Day-to-day weather forecasting has improved substantially over the past few decades. In contrast, progress in seasonal prediction outside the tropics has been meagre and mixed. On seasonal timescales, the constraining influence of the initial atmospheric state is weak, and the internal variability associated with transient weather systems tends to be large compared with the nuanced influence of anomalies in external forcing. Current research and operational activities focus on exploring and exploiting potential links between external anomalies and seasonal-mean climate patterns. Here I examine reanalysed meteorological data sets for the unusual winter 2013/2014, with drought and freezing conditions juxtaposed over North America and severe wet and stormy weather over parts of Europe, to study the role of weather systems and their transient upper-tropospheric flow patterns. I find that the amplitude, recurrence and location of these transient patterns account directly for the corresponding anomalous seasonal-mean patterns. They occurred episodically and sequentially, were linked dynamically, and exhibited some circumpolar connectivity. I conclude that the upper-tropospheric components of transient weather systems are significant for understanding and predicting seasonal weather patterns, whereas the role of external factors is more subtle.

National differences in environmental concern and performance are predicted by country age.

PubMed

Hershfield, Hal E; Bang, H Min; Weber, Elke U

2014-01-01

There are obvious economic predictors of ability and willingness to invest in environmental sustainability. Yet, given that environmental decisions represent trade-offs between present sacrifices and uncertain future benefits, psychological factors may also play a role in country-level environmental behavior. Gott's principle suggests that citizens may use perceptions of their country's age to predict its future continuation, with longer pasts predicting longer futures. Using country- and individual-level analyses, we examined whether longer perceived pasts result in longer perceived futures, which in turn motivate concern for continued environmental quality. Study 1 found that older countries scored higher on an environmental performance index, even when the analysis controlled for country-level differences in gross domestic product and governance. Study 2 showed that when the United States was framed as an old country (vs. a young one), participants were willing to donate more money to an environmental organization. The findings suggest that framing a country as a long-standing entity may effectively prompt proenvironmental behavior.

Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents

PubMed Central

Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. METHOD: a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. RESULTS: the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. CONCLUSION: this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users. PMID:25591103

Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance.

PubMed

Kramer, Karen L; Veile, Amanda; Otárola-Castillo, Erik

2016-01-01

Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children's growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children's monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1) as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2) competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3) however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children's growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children's growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children's growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance.

Validity of VO(2 max) in predicting blood volume: implications for the effect of fitness on aging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Convertino, V. A.; Ludwig, D. A.

2000-01-01

A multiple regression model was constructed to investigate the premise that blood volume (BV) could be predicted using several anthropometric variables, age, and maximal oxygen uptake (VO(2 max)). To test this hypothesis, age, calculated body surface area (height/weight composite), percent body fat (hydrostatic weight), and VO(2 max) were regressed on to BV using data obtained from 66 normal healthy men. Results from the evaluation of the full model indicated that the most parsimonious result was obtained when age and VO(2 max) were regressed on BV expressed per kilogram body weight. The full model accounted for 52% of the total variance in BV per kilogram body weight. Both age and VO(2 max) were related to BV in the positive direction. Percent body fat contributed <1% to the explained variance in BV when expressed in absolute BV (ml) or as BV per kilogram body weight. When the model was cross validated on 41 new subjects and BV per kilogram body weight was reexpressed as raw BV, the results indicated that the statistical model would be stable under cross validation (e.g., predictive applications) with an accuracy of +/- 1,200 ml at 95% confidence. Our results support the hypothesis that BV is an increasing function of aerobic fitness and to a lesser extent the age of the subject. The results may have implication as to a mechanism by which aerobic fitness and activity may be protective against reduced BV associated with aging.

Predicting relatedness and self-definition depressive experiences in aging women based on personality traits: a preliminary study.

PubMed

Henriques-Calado, Joana; Duarte-Silva, Maria Eugénia; Campos, Rui C; Sacoto, Carlota; Keong, Ana Marta; Junqueira, Diana

2013-01-01

As part of the research relating personality and depression, this study seeks to predict depressive experiences in aging women according to Sidney Blatt's perspective based on the Five-Factor Model of Personality. The NEO-Five Factor Inventory and the Depressive Experiences Questionnaire were administered. The domains Neuroticism, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness predicted self-criticism, explaining 68% of the variance; the domains Neuroticism and Extraversion predicted dependency, explaining 62% of the variance. The subfactors Neediness and Connectedness were differently related to personality traits. These findings are relevant to the research relating personality and anaclitic / introjective depressive experiences in late adulthood.

Predicting Effects of Psychological Inflexibility/Experiential Avoidance and Stress Coping Strategies for Internet Addiction, Significant Depression, and Suicidality in College Students: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Chou, Wei-Po; Yen, Cheng-Fang; Liu, Tai-Ling

2018-04-18

The aims of this study were to evaluate the predicting effects of psychological inflexibility/experiential avoidance (PI/EA) and stress coping strategies for Internet addiction, significant depression and suicidality among college students during the follow-up period of one year. A total of 500 college students participated in this study. The level of PI/EA and stress coping strategies were evaluated initially. One year later, 324 participants were invited to complete the Chen Internet Addiction Scale, Beck Depression Inventory-II and the questionnaire for suicidality to evaluate depression symptoms and internet addiction and suicidality. The predicting effects of PI/EA and stress coping strategies were examined by using logistic regression analysis controlling for the effects of gender and age. The results indicated that PI/EA at the initial assessment increased the risk of Internet addiction (OR = 1.087, 95% CI: 1.042–1.135), significant depression (OR = 1.125, 95% CI: 1.081–1.170), and suicidality (OR = 1.099, 95% CI: 1.053–1.147) at the follow-up assessment. Less effective coping at the initial assessment also increased the risk of Internet addiction (OR = 1.074, 95% CI: 1.011–1.140), significant depression (OR = 1.091, 95% CI: 1.037–1.147), and suicidality (OR = 1.074, 95% CI: 1.014–1.138) at the follow-up assessment. Problem focused and emotion-focus coping at the initial assessment was not significantly associated with the risks of Internet addiction, significant depression, and suicidality at the follow-up assessment. College students who have high PI/EA or are accustomed to using less effective stress coping strategies should be the target of prevention programs for IA (internet addiction), depression, and suicidality.

Predicting Effects of Psychological Inflexibility/Experiential Avoidance and Stress Coping Strategies for Internet Addiction, Significant Depression, and Suicidality in College Students: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Chou, Wei-Po; Yen, Cheng-Fang; Liu, Tai-Ling

2018-01-01

The aims of this study were to evaluate the predicting effects of psychological inflexibility/experiential avoidance (PI/EA) and stress coping strategies for Internet addiction, significant depression and suicidality among college students during the follow-up period of one year. A total of 500 college students participated in this study. The level of PI/EA and stress coping strategies were evaluated initially. One year later, 324 participants were invited to complete the Chen Internet Addiction Scale, Beck Depression Inventory-II and the questionnaire for suicidality to evaluate depression symptoms and internet addiction and suicidality. The predicting effects of PI/EA and stress coping strategies were examined by using logistic regression analysis controlling for the effects of gender and age. The results indicated that PI/EA at the initial assessment increased the risk of Internet addiction (OR = 1.087, 95% CI: 1.042–1.135), significant depression (OR = 1.125, 95% CI: 1.081–1.170), and suicidality (OR = 1.099, 95% CI: 1.053–1.147) at the follow-up assessment. Less effective coping at the initial assessment also increased the risk of Internet addiction (OR = 1.074, 95% CI: 1.011–1.140), significant depression (OR = 1.091, 95% CI: 1.037–1.147), and suicidality (OR = 1.074, 95% CI: 1.014–1.138) at the follow-up assessment. Problem focused and emotion-focus coping at the initial assessment was not significantly associated with the risks of Internet addiction, significant depression, and suicidality at the follow-up assessment. College students who have high PI/EA or are accustomed to using less effective stress coping strategies should be the target of prevention programs for IA (internet addiction), depression, and suicidality. PMID:29670025

Verbal Memory Declines More Rapidly with Age in HIV Infected versus Uninfected Adults

PubMed Central

Seider, Talia R.; Luo, Xi; Gongvatana, Assawin; Devlin, Kathryn N.; de la Monte, Suzanne M.; Chasman, Jesse D.; Yan, Peisi; Tashima, Karen T.; Navia, Bradford; Cohen, Ronald A.

2015-01-01

Objectives In the current era of effective antiretroviral treatment, the number of older adults living with HIV is rapidly increasing. This study investigated the combined influence of age and HIV infection on longitudinal changes in verbal and visuospatial learning and memory. Methods In this longitudinal, case-control design, 54 HIV seropositive and 30 seronegative individuals aged 40–74 received neurocognitive assessments at baseline visits and again one year later. Assessment included tests of verbal and visuospatial learning and memory. Linear regression was used to predict baseline performance and longitudinal change on each test using HIV serostatus, age, and their interaction as predictors. MANOVA was used to assess the effects of these predictors on overall baseline performance and overall longitudinal change. Results The interaction of HIV and age significantly predicted longitudinal change in verbal memory performance, as did HIV status, indicating that although the seropositive group declined more than the seronegative group overall, the rate of decline depended on age such that greater age was associated with a greater decline in this group. The regression models for visuospatial learning and memory were significant at baseline, but did not predict change over time. HIV status significantly predicted overall baseline performance and overall longitudinal change. Conclusions This is the first longitudinal study focused on the effects of age and HIV on memory. Findings suggest that age and HIV interact to produce larger declines in verbal memory over time. Further research is needed to gain a greater understanding of the effects of HIV on the aging brain. PMID:24645772

Classification and prediction of rice wines with different marked ages by using a voltammetric electronic tongue.

PubMed

Wei, Zhenbo; Wang, Jun; Ye, Linshuang

2011-08-15

A voltammetric electronic tongue (VE-tongue) was developed to discriminate the difference between Chinese rice wines in this research. Three types of Chinese rice wine with different marked ages (1, 3, and 5 years) were classified by the VE-tongue by principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA). The VE-tongue consisted of six working electrodes (gold, silver, platinum, palladium, tungsten, and titanium) in a standard three-electrode configuration. The multi-frequency large amplitude pulse voltammetry (MLAPV), which consisted of four segments of 1 Hz, 10 Hz, 100 Hz, and 1000 Hz, was applied as the potential waveform. The three types of Chinese rice wine could be classified accurately by PCA and CA, and some interesting regularity is shown in the score plots with the help of PCA. Two regression models, partial least squares (PLS) and back-error propagation-artificial neural network (BP-ANN), were used for wine age prediction. The regression results showed that the marked ages of the three types of Chinese rice wine were successfully predicted using PLS and BP-ANN. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analytic Methods for Predicting Significant Multi-Quanta Effects in Collisional Molecular Energy Transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bieniek, Ronald J.

1996-01-01

Collision-induced transitions can significantly affect molecular vibrational-rotational populations and energy transfer in atmospheres and gaseous systems. This, in turn. can strongly influence convective heat transfer through dissociation and recombination of diatomics. and radiative heat transfer due to strong vibrational coupling. It is necessary to know state-to-state rates to predict engine performance and aerothermodynamic behavior of hypersonic flows, to analyze diagnostic radiative data obtained from experimental test facilities, and to design heat shields and other thermal protective systems. Furthermore, transfer rates between vibrational and translational modes can strongly influence energy flow in various 'disturbed' environments, particularly where the vibrational and translational temperatures are not equilibrated.

Age effects on sensory-processing abilities and their impact on handwriting.

PubMed

Engel-Yeger, Batya; Hus, Sari; Rosenblum, Sara

2012-12-01

Sensory-processing abilities are known to deteriorate in the elderly. As a result, daily activities such as handwriting may be impaired. Yet, knowledge about sensory-processing involvement in handwriting characteristics among older persons is limited. To examine how age influences sensory-processing abilities and the impact on handwriting as a daily performance. The study participants were 118 healthy, independently functioning adults divided into four age groups: 31-45, 46-60, 61-75 and 76+ years. All participants completed the Adolescent/ Adult Sensory Profile (AASP). Handwriting process was documented using the Computerized Handwriting Penmanship Evaluation Tool (ComPET). Age significantly affects sensory processing and handwriting pressure as well as temporal and spatial measures. Both handwriting time and spatial organization of the written product were predicted by sensory seeking. When examining age contribution to the prediction of handwriting by sensory processing, sensory seeking showed a tendency for predicting handwriting pressure (p = .06), while sensory sensitivity significantly predicted handwriting velocity. Age appears to influence sensory-processing abilities and affect daily performance tasks, such as handwriting, for which sensitivity and seeking for sensations are essential. Awareness of clinicians to sensory-processing deficits among older adults and examining their impact on broader daily activities are essential to improve daily performance and quality of life.

Physical Activity, Sleep, and Nutrition Do Not Predict Cognitive Performance in Young and Middle-Aged Adults.

PubMed

Gijselaers, Hieronymus J M; Elena, Barberà; Kirschner, Paul A; de Groot, Renate H M

2016-01-01

Biological lifestyle factors (BLFs) such as physical activity, sleep, and nutrition play a role in cognitive functioning. Research concerning the relation between BLFs and cognitive performance is scarce however, especially in young and middle-aged adults. Research has not yet focused on a multidisciplinary approach with respect to this relation in the abovementioned population, where lifestyle habits are more stable. The aim of this study was to examine the contribution of these BLFs to cognitive performance. Path analysis was conducted in an observational study in which 1131 adults were analyzed using a cross-validation approach. Participants provided information on physical activity, sedentary behavior, chronotype, sleep duration, sleep quality, and the consumption of breakfast, fish, and caffeine via a survey. Their cognitive performance was measured using objective digital cognitive tests. Exploration yielded a predictive cohesive model that fitted the data properly, χ(2) /df = 0.8, CFI = 1.00, RMSEA < 0.001, SRMR = 0.016. Validation of the developed model indicated that the model fitted the data satisfactorily, χ(2) /df = 2.75, CFI = 0.95, RMSEA < 0.056, SRMR = 0.035. None of the variables within the BLFs were predictive for any of the cognitive performance measures, except for sedentary behavior. Although sedentary behavior was positively predictive for processing speed its contribution was small and unclear. The results indicate that the variables within the BLFs do not predict cognitive performance in young and middle-aged adults.

A risk score for the prediction of advanced age-related macular degeneration: Development and validation in 2 prospective cohorts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We aimed to develop an eye specific model which used readily available information to predict risk for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We used the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) as our training dataset, which consisted of the 4,507 participants (contributing 1,185 affected v...

[Prediction of life expectancy for prostate cancer patients based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems].

PubMed

Viktorov, A A; Zharinov, G M; Neklasova, N Ju; Morozova, E E

2017-01-01

The article presents a methodical approach for prediction of life expectancy for people diagnosed with prostate cancer based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems. The life expectancy is calculated by solving the differential equation for the rate of aging for three different stage of life - «normal» life, life with prostate cancer and life after combination therapy for prostate cancer. The mathematical model of aging for each stage of life has its own parameters identified by the statistical analysis of healthcare data from the Zharinov's databank and Rosstat CDR NES databank. The core of the methodical approach is the statistical correlation between growth rate of the prostate specific antigen level (PSA-level) or the PSA doubling time (PSA DT) before therapy, and lifespan: the higher the PSA DT is, the greater lifespan. The patients were grouped under the «fast PSA DT» and «slow PSA DT» categories. The satisfactory matching between calculations and experiment is shown. The prediction error of group life expectancy is due to the completeness and reliability of the main data source. A detailed monitoring of the basic health indicators throughout the each person life in each analyzed group is required. The absence of this particular information makes it impossible to predict the individual life expectancy.

Prediction equations for maximal respiratory pressures of Brazilian adolescents.

PubMed

Mendes, Raquel E F; Campos, Tania F; Macêdo, Thalita M F; Borja, Raíssa O; Parreira, Verônica F; Mendonça, Karla M P P

2013-01-01

The literature emphasizes the need for studies to provide reference values and equations able to predict respiratory muscle strength of Brazilian subjects at different ages and from different regions of Brazil. To develop prediction equations for maximal respiratory pressures (MRP) of Brazilian adolescents. In total, 182 healthy adolescents (98 boys and 84 girls) aged between 12 and 18 years, enrolled in public and private schools in the city of Natal-RN, were evaluated using an MVD300 digital manometer (Globalmed®) according to a standardized protocol. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS Statistics 17.0 software, with a significance level of 5%. Data normality was verified using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and descriptive analysis results were expressed as the mean and standard deviation. To verify the correlation between the MRP and the independent variables (age, weight, height and sex), the Pearson correlation test was used. To obtain the prediction equations, stepwise multiple linear regression was used. The variables height, weight and sex were correlated to MRP. However, weight and sex explained part of the variability of MRP, and the regression analysis in this study indicated that these variables contributed significantly in predicting maximal inspiratory pressure, and only sex contributed significantly to maximal expiratory pressure. This study provides reference values and two models of prediction equations for maximal inspiratory and expiratory pressures and sets the necessary normal lower limits for the assessment of the respiratory muscle strength of Brazilian adolescents.

Generalised equations for the prediction of percentage body fat by anthropometry in adult men and women aged 18-81 years.

PubMed

Leahy, Siobhan; O'Neill, Cian; Sohun, Rhoda; Toomey, Clodagh; Jakeman, Philip

2013-02-28

Anthropometric data indicate that the human phenotype is changing. Today's adult is greater in stature, body mass and fat mass. Accurate measurement of body composition is necessary to maintain surveillance of obesity within the population and to evaluate associated interventions. The aim of the present study was to construct and validate generalised equations for percentage body fat (%BF) prediction from anthropometry in 1136 adult men and women. Reference values for %BF were obtained using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Skinfold thickness (SF) at ten sites and girth (G) at seven sites were measured on 736 men and women aged 18-81 years (%BF 5·1-56·8%). Quantile regression was employed to construct prediction equations from age and log-transformed SF and G measures. These equations were then cross-validated on a cohort of 400 subjects of similar age and fatness. The following generalised equations were found to most accurately predict %BF: Men: (age x 0·1) + (logtricepsSF x 7·6) + (logmidaxillaSF x 8·8) + (logsuprspinaleSF x 11·9) - 11·3 (standard error of the estimate: 2·5%, 95% limits of agreement: - 4·8, + 4·9) Women: (age x 0·1) + (logabdominalG x 39·4) + (logmidaxillaSF x 4·9) + (logbicepsSF x 11·0) + (logmedialcalfSF x 9·1) - 73·5 (standard error of the estimate: 3·0%, 95% limits of agreement: - 5·7, + 5·9) These generalised anthropometric equations accurately predict %BF and are suitable for the measurement of %BF in adult men and women of varying levels of fatness across the lifespan.

[Predictive value of Ages & Stages Questionnaires for cognitive performance at early years of schooling].

PubMed

Schonhaut B, Luisa; Pérez R, Marcela; Castilla F, Ana María; Castro M, Sonia; Salinas A, Patricia; Armijo R, Iván

2017-02-01

The Ages and Stages questionnaires (ASQ) has been recently validated in our country for developmental screening. The objective of this study is evaluate the validity of ASQ to predict low cognitive performance in the early years of schooling. Diagnostic test studies conducted on a sample of children of medium-high socioeconomic level were evaluated using ASQ at least once at 8, 18 and/or 30 months old, and later, between 6 and 9 years old, reevaluated using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-third edition (WISC-III). Each ASQ evaluation was recorded independently. WISC-III was standardized, considering underperformance when the total score were under -1 standard deviation. 123 children, corresponding to 174 ASQ assessments (42 of them were 8 months old, 55 were 18 months and 77 were 30 months of age) were included. An area under the ROC curve of 80.7% was obtained, showing higher values at 8 months (98.0%) compared to 18 and 30 months old (78.1 and 79.3%, respectively). Considering different ASQ scoring criteria, a low sensitivity (27.8 to 50.0%), but a high specificity (78.8 to 96.2%) were obtained; the positive predictive value ranged between 21 and 46%, while the negative value was 92.0-93.2%. Conclusion ASQ has low sensitivity but excellent specificity to predict a low cognitive performance during the first years of schooling, being a good alternative to monitor psychomotor development in children who attend the private sector healthcare in our country.

Age of onset of myopia predicts risk of high myopia in later childhood in myopic Singapore children.

PubMed

Chua, Sharon Y L; Sabanayagam, Charumathi; Cheung, Yin-Bun; Chia, Audrey; Valenzuela, Robert K; Tan, Donald; Wong, Tien-Yin; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Saw, Seang-Mei

2016-07-01

To investigate the effect of age of myopia onset on the severity of myopia later in life among myopic children. In this prospective study, school children aged 7-9 years from the Singapore Cohort Of the Risk factors for Myopia (SCORM) were followed up till 11 years (n = 928). Age of myopia onset was defined either through questionnaire at baseline (age 7-9 years) or subsequent annual follow-up visits. Age of onset of myopia was a surrogate indicator of duration of myopia progression till age 11 years. Cycloplegic refraction and axial length were measured at every annual eye examination. High myopia was defined as spherical equivalent of ≤-5.0 D. A questionnaire determined the other risk factors. In multivariable regression models, younger age of myopia onset (per year decrease) or longer duration of myopia progression was associated with high myopia (odds ratio (OR) = 2.86; 95% CI: 2.39 to 3.43), more myopic spherical equivalent (regression coefficient (β) = -0.86 D; 95% CI: -0.93 to -0.80) and longer axial length (β = 0.28 mm; 95% CI: 0.24 to 0.32) at aged 11 years, after adjusting for gender, race, school, books per week and parental myopia. In Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) analyses, age of myopia onset alone predicted high myopia by 85% (area under the curve = 0.85), while the addition of other factors including gender, race, school, books per week and parental myopia only marginally improved this prediction (area under the curve = 0.87). Age of myopia onset or duration of myopia progression was the most important predictor of high myopia in later childhood in myopic children. Future trials to retard the progression of myopia to high myopia could focus on children with younger age of myopia onset or with longer duration of myopia progression. © 2016 The Authors Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2016 The College of Optometrists.

Ngram time series model to predict activity type and energy cost from wrist, hip and ankle accelerometers: implications of age

PubMed Central

Strath, Scott J; Kate, Rohit J; Keenan, Kevin G; Welch, Whitney A; Swartz, Ann M

2016-01-01

To develop and test time series single site and multi-site placement models, we used wrist, hip and ankle processed accelerometer data to estimate energy cost and type of physical activity in adults. Ninety-nine subjects in three age groups (18–39, 40–64, 65 + years) performed 11 activities while wearing three triaxial accelereometers: one each on the non-dominant wrist, hip, and ankle. During each activity net oxygen cost (METs) was assessed. The time series of accelerometer signals were represented in terms of uniformly discretized values called bins. Support Vector Machine was used for activity classification with bins and every pair of bins used as features. Bagged decision tree regression was used for net metabolic cost prediction. To evaluate model performance we employed the jackknife leave-one-out cross validation method. Single accelerometer and multi-accelerometer site model estimates across and within age group revealed similar accuracy, with a bias range of −0.03 to 0.01 METs, bias percent of −0.8 to 0.3%, and a rMSE range of 0.81–1.04 METs. Multi-site accelerometer location models improved activity type classification over single site location models from a low of 69.3% to a maximum of 92.8% accuracy. For each accelerometer site location model, or combined site location model, percent accuracy classification decreased as a function of age group, or when young age groups models were generalized to older age groups. Specific age group models on average performed better than when all age groups were combined. A time series computation show promising results for predicting energy cost and activity type. Differences in prediction across age group, a lack of generalizability across age groups, and that age group specific models perform better than when all ages are combined needs to be considered as analytic calibration procedures to detect energy cost and type are further developed. PMID:26449155

Predicting breeding bird occurrence by stand- and microhabitat-scale features in even-aged stands in the Central Appalachians

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDermott, M.E.; Wood, P.B.; Miller, G.W.; Simpson, B.T.

2011-01-01

Spatial scale is an important consideration when managing forest wildlife habitat, and models can be used to improve our understanding of these habitats at relevant scales. Our objectives were to determine whether stand- or microhabitat-scale variables better predicted bird metrics (diversity, species presence, and abundance) and to examine breeding bird response to clearcut size and age in a highly forested landscape. In 2004-2007, vegetation data were collected from 62 even-aged stands that were 3.6-34.6. ha in size and harvested in 1963-1990 on the Monongahela National Forest, WV, USA. In 2005-2007, we also surveyed birds at vegetation plots. We used classification and regression trees to model breeding bird habitat use with a suite of stand and microhabitat variables. Among stand variables, elevation, stand age, and stand size were most commonly retained as important variables in guild and species models. Among microhabitat variables, medium-sized tree density and tree species diversity most commonly predicted bird presence or abundance. Early successional and generalist bird presence, abundance, and diversity were better predicted by microhabitat variables than stand variables. Thus, more intensive field sampling may be required to predict habitat use for these species, and management may be needed at a finer scale. Conversely, stand-level variables had greater utility in predicting late-successional species occurrence and abundance; thus management decisions and modeling at this scale may be suitable in areas with a uniform landscape, such as our study area. Our study suggests that late-successional breeding bird diversity can be maximized long-term by including harvests >10. ha in size into our study area and by increasing tree diversity. Some harvesting will need to be incorporated regularly, because after 15 years, the study stands did not provide habitat for most early successional breeding specialists. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Predicting school readiness from neurodevelopmental assessments at age 2 years after respiratory distress syndrome in infants born preterm.

PubMed

Patrianakos-Hoobler, Athena I; Msall, Michael E; Huo, Dezheng; Marks, Jeremy D; Plesha-Troyke, Susan; Schreiber, Michael D

2010-04-01

To determine whether neurodevelopmental outcomes at the age of 2 years accurately predict school readiness in children who survived respiratory distress syndrome after preterm birth. Our cohort included 121 preterm infants who received surfactant and ventilation and were enrolled in a randomized controlled study of inhaled nitric oxide for respiratory distress syndrome. Abnormal outcomes at the age of 2 years were defined as neurosensory disability (cerebral palsy, blindness, or bilateral hearing loss) or delay (no neurosensory disability but Bayley Scales of Infant Development mental or performance developmental index scores <70). School readiness (assessed at a mean age of 5y 6mo, SD 1y) was determined using neurodevelopmental assessments of motor, sensory, receptive vocabulary, perceptual, conceptual, and adaptive skills. The mean birthweight of the cohort (57 males, 64 females) was 987g (SD 374), and the mean gestational age was 27.3 weeks (SD 2.6). At the age of 2 years, the neurodevelopmental classification was 'disabled' in 11% and 'delayed' in 23%. At the age of 5 years 6 months, intensive special education was required for 11% and some special education for 21%. Disability and delay at the age of 2 years were 92% and 50% predictive of lack of school readiness respectively, whereas only 15% of children who were normal at the age of 2 years were not school ready at the later assessment. Children with delay at 2 years were more likely to need special education if they were socially disadvantaged. Without preschool developmental supports, preterm survivors living in poverty will require more special education services.

The Developmental Significance of Late Adolescent Substance Use for Early Adult Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Englund, Michelle M.; Siebenbruner, Jessica; Oliva, Elizabeth M.; Egeland, Byron; Chung, Chu-Ting; Long, Jeffrey D.

2013-01-01

This study examines the predictive significance of late adolescent substance use groups (i.e., abstainers, experimental users, at-risk users, and abusers) for early adult adaptation. Participants (N = 159) were drawn from a prospective longitudinal study of first-born children of low-income mothers. At 17.5 years of age, participants were assigned…

Age of major depression onset, depressive symptoms, and risk for subsequent dementia: results of the German study on Ageing, Cognition, and Dementia in Primary Care Patients (AgeCoDe).

PubMed

Heser, K; Tebarth, F; Wiese, B; Eisele, M; Bickel, H; Köhler, M; Mösch, E; Weyerer, S; Werle, J; König, H-H; Leicht, H; Pentzek, M; Fuchs, A; Riedel-Heller, S G; Luppa, M; Prokein, J; Scherer, M; Maier, W; Wagner, M

2013-08-01

Whether late-onset depression is a risk factor for or a prodrome of dementia remains unclear. We investigated the impact of depressive symptoms and early- v. late-onset depression on subsequent dementia in a cohort of elderly general-practitioner patients (n = 2663, mean age = 81.2 years). Risk for subsequent dementia was estimated over three follow-ups (each 18 months apart) depending on history of depression, particularly age of depression onset, and current depressive symptoms using proportional hazard models. We also examined the additive prediction of incident dementia by depression beyond cognitive impairment. An increase of dementia risk for higher age cut-offs of late-onset depression was found. In analyses controlling for age, sex, education, and apolipoprotein E4 genotype, we found that very late-onset depression (aged ≥ 70 years) and current depressive symptoms separately predicted all-cause dementia. Combined very late-onset depression with current depressive symptoms was specifically predictive for later Alzheimer's disease (AD; adjusted hazard ratio 5.48, 95% confidence interval 2.41-12.46, p < 0.001). This association was still significant after controlling for cognitive measures, but further analyses suggested that it was mediated by subjective memory impairment with worries. Depression might be a prodrome of AD but not of dementia of other aetiology as very late-onset depression in combination with current depressive symptoms, possibly emerging as a consequence of subjectively perceived worrisome cognitive deterioration, was most predictive. As depression parameters and subjective memory impairment predicted AD independently of objective cognition, clinicians should take this into account.

Epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia in India: prevalence, age structure, risk factors and the role of a predictive score for detection.

PubMed

Shah, Naman K; Poole, Charles; MacDonald, Pia D M; Srivastava, Bina; Schapira, Allan; Juliano, Jonathan J; Anvikar, Anup; Meshnick, Steven R; Valecha, Neena; Mishra, Neelima

2013-07-01

To characterise the epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia and determine the prevalence, age structure and the viability of a predictive model for detection. We collected data from 21 therapeutic efficacy trials conducted in India during 2009-2010 and estimated the contribution of each age group to the reservoir of transmission. We built a predictive model for gametocytemia and calculated the diagnostic utility of different score cut-offs from our risk score. Gametocytemia was present in 18% (248/1 335) of patients and decreased with age. Adults constituted 43%, school-age children 45% and under fives 12% of the reservoir for potential transmission. Our model retained age, sex, region and previous antimalarial drug intake as predictors of gametocytemia. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.76 (95%CI:0.73,0.78), and a cut-off of 14 or more on a risk score ranging from 0 to 46 provided 91% (95%CI:88,95) sensitivity and 33% (95%CI:31,36) specificity for detecting gametocytemia. Gametocytemia was common in India and varied by region. Notably, adults contributed substantially to the reservoir for potential transmission. Predictive modelling to generate a clinical algorithm for detecting gametocytemia did not provide sufficient discrimination for targeting interventions. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Work and women's well-being: religion and age as moderators.

PubMed

Noor, Noraini M

2008-12-01

Religion has been found to moderate the stress-strain relationship. This moderator role, however, may be dependent on age. The present study tested for the three-way interaction between work experience, age, and religiosity in the prediction of women's well-being, and predicted that work experience and religiosity will combine additively in older women, while in younger women religiosity is predicted to moderate the relationship between work experience and well-being. In a sample of 389 married Malay Muslim women, results of the regression analyses showed significant three-way interactions between work experience, age, and religiosity in the prediction of well-being (measured by distress symptoms and life satisfaction). While in younger women the results were in line with the predictions made, in the older women, both additive and moderator effects of religiosity were observed, depending on the well-being measures used. These results are discussed in relation to the literature on work and family, with specific reference to women's age, religion, as well as the issue of stress-strain specificity.

Age-related reduction and independent predictors of toe flexor strength in middle-aged men.

PubMed

Suwa, Masataka; Imoto, Takayuki; Kida, Akira; Iwase, Mitsunori; Yokochi, Takashi

2017-01-01

Toe flexor muscles play an important role in posture and locomotion, and poor toe flexor strength is a risk factor for falls. In this cross-sectional study, we estimated the age-related change in toe flexor strength and compared it with that of handgrip strength. Independent factors predicting toe flexor and handgrip strength were also determined. A total of 1401 male (aged 35-59 years) study participants were divided into five groups according to their chronological age; 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, and 55-59 years. Toe flexor and handgrip strength, anthropometry, and resting blood pressure were measured. Fasting blood samples were collected to measure blood glucose, triglycerides, high- and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterols, and albumin. A self-administered lifestyle questionnaire was conducted. Decline in absolute toe flexor and handgrip strength began in the age groups 50-55 and 55-59 years, respectively. In comparison to the mean values of the youngest group, relative toe flexor strength (87.0 ± 26.6%) was significantly lower than handgrip strength (94.4 ± 13.1%) for the oldest group. Multiple regression analyses showed that independent factors predicting both toe flexor and handgrip strength were lean body mass, age, serum albumin, drinking habit, and fat mass. Additionally, fasting blood glucose, diastolic blood pressure, sleeping time and exercise habit were predicting factors of toe flexor strength but not of handgrip strength. Age-related reduction in toe flexor strength was earlier and greater than handgrip strength, and toe flexor strength reflects body composition and metabolic status.

The significance of 'facilitator as a change agent'--organisational learning culture in aged care home settings.

PubMed

Grealish, Laurie; Henderson, Amanda; Quero, Fritz; Phillips, Roslyn; Surawski, May

2015-04-01

To explore the impact of an educational programme focused on social behaviours and relationships on organisational learning culture in the residential aged care context. The number of aged care homes will continue to rise as the frail older elderly live longer, requiring more formal care and support. As with other small- to medium-sized health services, aged care homes are faced with the challenge of continuous development of the workforce and depend upon registered nurses to lead staff development. A mixed-method evaluation research design was used to determine the impact of an educational programme focused on social aspects of learning on organisational learning culture. One hundred and fifty-nine (pre) and 143 (post) participants from three aged care homes completed the Clinical Learning Organisational Culture survey, and three participant-researcher registered nurse clinical educators provided regular journal entries for review. While each site received the same educational programme over a six-month period, the change in organisational learning culture at each site was notably different. Two aged care homes had significant improvements in affiliation, one in accomplishment and one in recognition. The educators' journals differed in the types of learning observed and interventions undertaken, with Eucalyptus focused on organisational change, Grevillea focused on group (student) change and the Wattle focused on individual or situational change. Clinical educator activities appear to have a significant effect on organisational learning culture, with a focus on the organisational level having the greatest positive effect on learning culture and on individual or situational level having a limited effect. Clinical educator facilitation that is focused on organisational rather than individual interests may offer a key to improving organisational learning culture. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

PubMed

Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

2016-02-01

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Grandparenting predicts late-life cognition: Results from the Women's Healthy Ageing Project.

PubMed

Burn, Katherine; Szoeke, Cassandra

2015-06-01

Social engagement provides dynamic stimulation for older individuals that influences cognition. Grandparenting is an increasingly popular form of childcare that provides social activity for older adults. To investigate the relationship between grandparenting, as a form of social engagement, and cognitive function in adults aged over 65, a decade after our previous work. Participants were 224 Australian women (mean age=70) from the longitudinal prospective Women's Healthy Ageing Project (WHAP). Cognitive function was assessed using a neuropsychological battery consisting of previously validated measures including the California Verbal Learning Test, Digit Span task, and Controlled Oral Word Association Test. Individual test scores were combined using factor analysis into executive function and episodic memory scores. Grandmothers minding grandchildren had higher executive function than those who were not minding grandchildren or who did not have grandchildren (p<0.05). Minding grandchildren for one day per week predicted better executive function performance than more frequent grandparenting (p<0.05), consistent with previous findings. While grandparenting is associated with better executive function overall, highly frequent grandparenting is associated with lower executive function, which may be due to demands. Social engagement comprises various aspects which need to be taken into consideration when studying cognition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceived Control and Social Activity in Midlife and Older Age: A Reciprocal Association? Findings From the German Ageing Survey.

PubMed

Curtis, Rachel G; Huxhold, Oliver; Windsor, Tim D

2018-06-14

Perceived control may promote social activity in older adults because individuals with greater perceived control have greater confidence in their ability to achieve outcomes and are more likely to choose difficult activities, show persistence, and employ strategies to overcome challenges. Cross-sectional research has linked perceived control with social activity in life span and older adult samples but provides little insight into the direction of influence. We examined reciprocal associations between perceived control and social activity in order to establish temporal sequencing, which is one prerequisite for determining potential causation. Participants were 14,126 midlife and older adults from the German Ageing Survey. Using cross-lagged autoregressive modeling with age as the time metric (40-87 years), we examined reciprocal 3-year lagged associations between perceived control and social activity, while controlling for concurrent associations. Perceived control significantly predicted social activity 3 years later. Reciprocally, social activity significantly predicted perceived control 3 years later. The influence of perceived control on social activity was greater than the influence of social activity on perceived control. The finding that perceived control significantly predicts future social activity has potential implications for developing interventions aimed at promoting social activity in midlife and older adults.

RISK FACTORS AND CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF PRECHOROIDAL CLEFT IN NEOVASCULAR AGE-RELATED MACULAR DEGENERATION.

PubMed

Kim, Jong Min; Kang, Se Woong; Son, Dae Yong; Bae, Kunho

2017-11-01

To investigate the risk factors associated with prechoroidal cleft occurrence after treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) and to elucidate its clinical significance. Two hundred thirty-four subjects who were treated for neovascular age-related macular degeneration were assessed to identify prechoroidal cleft on optical coherence tomography. Clinical variables were compared between patients manifesting a cleft (cleft group) and patients who did not (control group). Prechoroidal cleft was detected in 29 of 234 patients (8.1%). Although the baseline visual acuity was not different between the 2 groups, logMAR visual acuity at final visit was 0.89 ± 0.74 (with approximate Snellen equivalent of 20/160) in the cleft group and 0.65 ± 0.69 (with approximate Snellen equivalent of 20/100) in controls (P < 0.05). Within cleft group, the early-onset (<6 months) subgroup had even worse visual outcomes than the late-onset subgroup (P < 0.05). Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed that the incidence of prechoroidal cleft was positively correlated with having received intravitreal gas injection to displace a submacular hemorrhage and a diagnosis of retinal angiomatous proliferation and typical neovascular age-related macular degeneration (P < 0.05). Diagnosis of retinal angiomatous proliferation and typical neovascular age-related macular degeneration, and a submacular hemorrhage treated by pneumatic displacement were the independent risk factors for development of prechoroidal cleft. Eyes with a cleft, especially clefts that develop early, generally had worse prognoses than eyes without clefts.

Proton exchange membrane fuel cell model for aging predictions: Simulated equivalent active surface area loss and comparisons with durability tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robin, C.; Gérard, M.; Quinaud, M.; d'Arbigny, J.; Bultel, Y.

2016-09-01

The prediction of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) lifetime is one of the major challenges to optimize both material properties and dynamic control of the fuel cell system. In this study, by a multiscale modeling approach, a mechanistic catalyst dissolution model is coupled to a dynamic PEMFC cell model to predict the performance loss of the PEMFC. Results are compared to two 2000-h experimental aging tests. More precisely, an original approach is introduced to estimate the loss of an equivalent active surface area during an aging test. Indeed, when the computed Electrochemical Catalyst Surface Area profile is fitted on the experimental measures from Cyclic Voltammetry, the computed performance loss of the PEMFC is underestimated. To be able to predict the performance loss measured by polarization curves during the aging test, an equivalent active surface area is obtained by a model inversion. This methodology enables to successfully find back the experimental cell voltage decay during time. The model parameters are fitted from the polarization curves so that they include the global degradation. Moreover, the model captures the aging heterogeneities along the surface of the cell observed experimentally. Finally, a second 2000-h durability test in dynamic operating conditions validates the approach.

Does Childhood Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) Predict Levels of Depressive Symptoms during Emerging Adulthood?

PubMed Central

Meinzer, Michael C.; Pettit, Jeremy W.; Waxmonsky, James G.; Gnagy, Elizabeth; Molina, Brooke S.G.; Pelham, William E.

2015-01-01

Little is known about the development and course of depressive symptoms through emerging adulthood among individuals with a childhood history of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The aim of this study was to examine if a history of ADHD in childhood significantly predicted depressive symptoms during emerging adulthood (i.e., ages 18–25 years), including the initial level of depressive symptoms, continued levels of depressive symptoms at each age year, and the rate of change in depressive symptoms over time. 394 participants (205 with ADHD and 189 without ADHD; 348 males and 46 females) drawn from the Pittsburgh ADHD Longitudinal Study (PALS) completed annual self-ratings of depressive symptoms between the ages of 18 and 25 years. Childhood history of ADHD significantly predicted a higher initial level of depressive symptoms at age 18, and higher levels of depressive symptoms at every age year during emerging adulthood. ADHD did not significantly predict the rate of change in depressive symptoms from age 18 to age 25. Childhood history of ADHD remained a significant predictor of initial level of depressive symptoms at age 18 after controlling for comorbid psychiatric diagnoses, but not after controlling for concurrent ADHD symptoms and psychosocial impairment. Participants with childhood histories of ADHD experienced significantly higher levels of depressive symptoms than non-ADHD comparison participants by age 18 and continued to experience higher, although not increasing, levels of depressive symptoms through emerging adulthood. Clinical implications and directions for future research are discussed. PMID:26272531

Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance

PubMed Central

Kramer, Karen L.; Veile, Amanda; Otárola-Castillo, Erik

2016-01-01

Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children’s growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children’s monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1) as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2) competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3) however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children’s growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children’s growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children’s growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance. PMID:26938742

Aging of nickel added to soils as predicted by soil pH and time.

PubMed

Ma, Yibing; Lombi, Enzo; McLaughlin, Mike J; Oliver, Ian W; Nolan, Annette L; Oorts, Koen; Smolders, Erik

2013-08-01

Although aging processes are important in risk assessment for metals in soils, the aging of Ni added to soils has not been studied in detail. In this study, after addition of water soluble Ni to soils, the changes over time in isotopic exchangeability, total concentrations and free Ni(2+) activity in soil pore water, were investigated in 16 European soils incubated outdoors for 18 months. The results showed that after Ni addition, concentrations of Ni in soil pore water and isotopic exchangeability of Ni in soils initially decreased rapidly. This phase was followed by further decreases in the parameters measured but these occurred at slower rates. Increasing soil pH increased the rate and extent of aging reactions. Semi-mechanistic models, based on Ni precipitation/nucleation on soil surfaces and micropore diffusion, were developed and calibrated. The initial fast processes, which were attributed to precipitation/nucleation, occurred over a short time (e.g. 1h), afterwards the slow processes were most likely controlled by micropore diffusion processes. The models were validated by comparing predicted and measured Ni aging in three additional, widely differing soils aged outdoors for periods up to 15 months in different conditions. These models could be used to scale ecotoxicological data generated in short-term studies to longer aging times. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brain age and other bodily 'ages': implications for neuropsychiatry.

PubMed

Cole, James H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Harris, Sarah E; Deary, Ian J

2018-06-11

As our brains age, we tend to experience cognitive decline and are at greater risk of neurodegenerative disease and dementia. Symptoms of chronic neuropsychiatric diseases are also exacerbated during ageing. However, the ageing process does not affect people uniformly; nor, in fact, does the ageing process appear to be uniform even within an individual. Here, we outline recent neuroimaging research into brain ageing and the use of other bodily ageing biomarkers, including telomere length, the epigenetic clock, and grip strength. Some of these techniques, using statistical approaches, have the ability to predict chronological age in healthy people. Moreover, they are now being applied to neurological and psychiatric disease groups to provide insights into how these diseases interact with the ageing process and to deliver individualised predictions about future brain and body health. We discuss the importance of integrating different types of biological measurements, from both the brain and the rest of the body, to build more comprehensive models of the biological ageing process. Finally, we propose seven steps for the field of brain-ageing research to take in coming years. This will help us reach the long-term goal of developing clinically applicable statistical models of biological processes to measure, track and predict brain and body health in ageing and disease.

Predictive models of long-term anatomic outcome in age-related macular degeneration treated with as-needed Ranibizumab.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Buendia, Lucia; Delgado-Tirado, Santiago; Sanabria, M Rosa; Fernandez, Itziar; Coco, Rosa M

2017-08-18

To analyze predictors and develop predictive models of anatomic outcome in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) treated with as-needed ranibizumab after 4 years of follow-up. A multicenter consecutive case series non-interventional study was performed. Clinical, funduscopic and OCT characteristics of 194 treatment-naïve patients with AMD treated with as-needed ranibizumab for at least 2 years and up to 4 years were analyzed at baseline, 3 months and each year until the end of the follow-up. Baseline demographic and angiographic characteristics were also evaluated. R Statistical Software was used for statistical analysis. Main outcome measure was final anatomic status. Factors associated with less probability of preserved macula were diagnosis in 2009, older age, worse vision, presence of atrophy/fibrosis, pigment epithelium detachment, and geographic atrophy/fibrotic scar/neovascular AMD in the fellow eye. Factors associated with higher probability of GA were presence of atrophy and greater number of injections, whereas male sex, worse vision, lesser change in central macular thickness and presence of fibrosis were associated with less probability of GA as final macular status. Predictive model of preserved macula vs. GA/fibrotic scar showed sensibility of 77.78% and specificity of 69.09%. Predictive model of GA vs. fibrotic scar showed sensibility of 68.89% and specificity of 72.22%. We identified predictors of final macular status, and developed two predictive models. Predictive models that we propose are based on easily harvested variables, and, if validated, could be a useful tool for individual patient management and clinical research studies.

Cervical cytology of atypical squamous cells, cannot exclude high-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesion: significance of age, human papillomavirus DNA detection and previous abnormal cytology on follow-up outcomes.

PubMed

Sung, Chang Ohk; Oh, Young Lyun; Song, Sang Yong

2011-11-01

Despite the usefulness of Pap tests for cancer screening, outcomes can be difficult to predict when atypical squamous cells (ASCs) are identified. According to the 2001 Bethesda system, ASCs can be subdivided into two groups: ASCs of undetermined significance (ASC-US); and ASCs, cannot exclude high-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesion (ASC-H). ASC-H interpretations are uncommon, and studies involving this type of lesion are based on small numbers of cases. Cross-sectional, retrospective study of 392 ASC-H cases. The follow-up outcomes of ASC-H cases that were diagnosed during routine primary screening between 2002 and 2008 were investigated, and relationships between clinicopathological parameters were assessed, particularly positive test for high-risk HPV (HPV) DNA, patient age at diagnosis and previous abnormal cytology. Of the 392 cases, high-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesion (HSIL) was detected in 111 (28.3%) cases, squamous cell carcinoma was detected in 15 (3.8%) cases, low-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesion was detected in 37 (9.4%) cases, reactive change was detected in 178 (45.4%) cases, atrophy was detected in 47 (12.0%) cases, and adenocarcinoma was detected in four (1.0%) cases. The prevalence of HSIL or greater was 27.8% for women aged ≥ 40 years, and 52.3% for women aged <40 years (p<0.001). HPV positivity in ASC-H smears was significantly associated with HSIL or greater, irrespective of age (<40 years, p=0.003; ≥ 40 years, p<0.001). ASC-H with previous abnormal cytology greater than ASC-US showed a significantly higher detection rate for HSIL or greater at follow-up (p<0.001). Patient age, positive HPV DNA test and previous abnormal cytology are useful predictors of underlying HSIL or greater in women with ASC-H. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal Study-Based Dementia Prediction for Public Health

PubMed Central

Kim, HeeChel; Chun, Hong-Woo; Kim, Seonho; Coh, Byoung-Youl; Kwon, Oh-Jin; Moon, Yeong-Ho

2017-01-01

The issue of public health in Korea has attracted significant attention given the aging of the country’s population, which has created many types of social problems. The approach proposed in this article aims to address dementia, one of the most significant symptoms of aging and a public health care issue in Korea. The Korean National Health Insurance Service Senior Cohort Database contains personal medical data of every citizen in Korea. There are many different medical history patterns between individuals with dementia and normal controls. The approach used in this study involved examination of personal medical history features from personal disease history, sociodemographic data, and personal health examinations to develop a prediction model. The prediction model used a support-vector machine learning technique to perform a 10-fold cross-validation analysis. The experimental results demonstrated promising performance (80.9% F-measure). The proposed approach supported the significant influence of personal medical history features during an optimal observation period. It is anticipated that a biomedical “big data”-based disease prediction model may assist the diagnosis of any disease more correctly. PMID:28867810

Impact of Age on the Risk of Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in a Young Population: An Analysis Using the Predicted Probability Model.

PubMed

Jung, Yoon Suk; Park, Chan Hyuk; Kim, Nam Hee; Lee, Mi Yeon; Park, Dong Il

2017-09-01

The incidence of colorectal cancer is decreasing in adults aged ≥50 years and increasing in those aged <50 years. We aimed to establish risk stratification model for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACRN) in persons aged <50 years. We reviewed the records of participants who had undergone a colonoscopy as part of a health examination at two large medical examination centers in Korea. By using logistic regression analysis, we developed predicted probability models for ACRN in a population aged 30-49 years. Of 96,235 participants, 57,635 and 38,600 were included in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The predicted probability model considered age, sex, body mass index, family history of colorectal cancer, and smoking habits, as follows: Y ACRN  = -8.755 + 0.080·X age  - 0.055·X male  + 0.041·X BMI  + 0.200·X family_history_of_CRC  + 0.218·X former_smoker  + 0.644·X current_smoker . The optimal cutoff value for the predicted probability of ACRN by Youden index was 1.14%. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of our model for ACRN were higher than those of the previously established Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), Korean Colorectal Screening (KCS), and Kaminski's scoring models [AUROC (95% confidence interval): model in the current study, 0.673 (0.648-0.697); vs. APCS, 0.588 (0.564-0.611), P < 0.001; vs. KCS, 0.602 (0.576-0.627), P < 0.001; and vs. Kaminski's model, 0.586 (0.560-0.612), P < 0.001]. In a young population, a predicted probability model can assess the risk of ACRN more accurately than existing models, including the APCS, KCS, and Kaminski's scoring models.

Lean mass and fat mass predict bone mineral density in middle-aged individuals with noninsulin-requiring type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Moseley, Kendall F; Dobrosielski, Devon A; Stewart, Kerry J; De Beur, Suzanne M Jan; Sellmeyer, Deborah E

2011-05-01

Despite high bone mineral density (BMD), persons with type 2 diabetes are at greater risk of fracture. The relationship between body composition and BMD in noninsulin-requiring diabetes is unclear. The aim was to examine how fat and lean mass independently affect the skeleton in this population. Subjects for this cross-sectional analysis were men (n = 78) and women (n = 56) aged 40-65 years (56 ± 6 years) with uncomplicated, noninsulin-requiring type 2 diabetes. Total body fat and lean mass, total body, hip and lumbar spine BMD were measured with dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Magnetic resonance imaging measured total abdominal, visceral and subcutaneous (SQ) fat. Subjects had normal all-site BMD and were obese to overweight (body mass index 29-41 kg/m(2)) with controlled diabetes (HbA1c women 6·6 ± 1·2%, men 6·7 ± 1·6%). Lean mass was positively associated with total body, hip, femoral neck and hip BMD in both sexes. Fat mass, abdominal total and SQ fat were associated with total body and hip BMD in women. In multivariate analyses adjusted for sex, lean mass significantly predicted total, hip and femoral neck BMD in men and women. In unadjusted models, lean mass continued to predict BMD at these sites in men; fat mass also predicted total body, femoral and hip BMD in women. In men and women with uncomplicated, noninsulin-requiring diabetes, lean mass significantly predicted BMD at the total body, hip and femoral neck. Further research is needed to determine whether acquisition or maintenance of lean mass in T2DM can prevent hip fracture in this at-risk population. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Coronary calcium predicts events better with absolute calcium scores than age-sex-race/ethnicity percentiles: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

PubMed

Budoff, Matthew J; Nasir, Khurram; McClelland, Robyn L; Detrano, Robert; Wong, Nathan; Blumenthal, Roger S; Kondos, George; Kronmal, Richard A

2009-01-27

In this study, we aimed to establish whether age-sex-specific percentiles of coronary artery calcium (CAC) predict cardiovascular outcomes better than the actual (absolute) CAC score. The presence and extent of CAC correlates with the overall magnitude of coronary atherosclerotic plaque burden and with the development of subsequent coronary events. MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) is a prospective cohort study of 6,814 asymptomatic participants followed for coronary heart disease (CHD) events including myocardial infarction, angina, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or CHD death. Time to incident CHD was modeled with Cox regression, and we compared models with percentiles based on age, sex, and/or race/ethnicity to categories commonly used (0, 1 to 100, 101 to 400, 400+ Agatston units). There were 163 (2.4%) incident CHD events (median follow-up 3.75 years). Expressing CAC in terms of age- and sex-specific percentiles had significantly lower area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) than when using absolute scores (women: AUC 0.73 versus 0.76, p = 0.044; men: AUC 0.73 versus 0.77, p < 0.001). Akaike's information criterion indicated better model fit with the overall score. Both methods robustly predicted events (>90th percentile associated with a hazard ratio [HR] of 16.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.30 to 28.9, and score >400 associated with HR of 20.6, 95% CI: 11.8 to 36.0). Within groups based on age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentiles there remains a clear trend of increasing risk across levels of the absolute CAC groups. In contrast, once absolute CAC category is fixed, there is no increasing trend across levels of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific categories. Patients with low absolute scores are low-risk, regardless of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentile rank. Persons with an absolute CAC score of >400 are high risk, regardless of percentile rank. Using absolute CAC in standard groups performed

[A cohort study on the predictive value of factors influencing cardio-cerebro vascular death among people over 40 years of age].

PubMed

Yang, Jian-min; Lu, Fang-hong; Jin, Shi-kuan; Sun, Shang-wen; Zhao, Ying-xin; Wang, Shu-jian; Zhou, Xiao-hong

2007-02-01

To explore the factors influencing cardio-cerebro vascular death events among people over 40 years of age in Shandong area, China. Baseline survey was carried out in 1991. A total number of 11,008 adults over 40 years old had been studied in Shandong province. Data on cardiocerebro death was collected. The correlation between influencing factors and cardio-cerebro vascular death events was analyzed by Cox regression model. Totally, 434 cardio-cerebro death events occurred among the 11,008 subjects during the 8-year follow-up study. Cardio-cerebro death events were related to systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, smoking, stroke history and age. Data from Cox regression analysis showed that the relative risk (RR) for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 2.862 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.976-4.144] times for those people having stroke history. When systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure increased by every 10 mm Hg, the relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 1.171 (95% CI: 1.033-1.328), 1.214 (95% CI: 1.044-1.413) respectively. it was found that a 1.239 (95% CI: 1.088-1.553) times higher in smokers than non-smokers on relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events. However, the predictive values of the influencing factors for cardio-cerebro vascular death were different among population of different years of age. The relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 1.366 (95% CI: 1.102-1.678) times for each 10 mm Hg increase of diastolic blood pressure in 40-59 years old population. However, the effect was taken place by systolic blood pressure in 60-74 years old population,with a relative risk of 1.201 (95% CI: 1.017-1.418) for each 10 mm Hg increase. Age seemed the only significant factor for cardio-cerebro vascular death events on population aged more than 75 years old. Conclusion The predictive values of the risk factors were different among age groups. The different

[ABDOMINAL BIOELECTRICAL IMPEDANCE ANALYSIS AND ANTHROPOMETRY FOR PREDICTING METABOLIC SYNDROME IN MIDDLE AGED MEN].

PubMed

Fernández-Vázquez, Rosalía; Millán Romero, Ángel; Barbancho, Miguel Ángel; Alvero-Cruz, José Ramón

2015-09-01

central obesity has a higher risk of metabolic syndrome. The present work aimed to study the relationship of trunk fat and the visceral fat index, and other anthropometric indices in relation to the metabolic syndrome in middle aged male Methods: design: transversal descriptive and correlational study. 75 male, volunteers who have access to a medical assessment, with an age range of 21 to 59 years, from different professions. Weight, height, body mass index, waist circumference, gluteal circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio, trunk fat and visceral fat level by bioelectrical abdominal impedance analysis with Tanita AB-140 (ViScan) and biochemical markers: fasting glucose, total cholesterol, and triglycerides. Likewise, the systolic and diastolic blood pressure was measured. there are significant correlations of anthropometric measurements with trunk fat and visceral fat level and the same with biochemical variables. Receptor-operator curves (ROC curve) analysis shows that the cutoff points from which arises the metabolic syndrome are 32.7% of trunk fat and a level of visceral fat of 13 with a high sensitivity and specificity, attaining the same cut-off points for the metabolic syndrome and obesity status. trunk fat and visceral fat levels determined by bioelectrical abdominal impedance analysis, values are variables very sensitive and specific for the detection of metabolic syndrome and obesity, though not over the variables and anthropometric indices. In the condition of the overweight, trunk fat and visceral fat level are more predictive than anthropometric measures. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Importance of Multimodal MRI in Characterizing Brain Tissue and Its Potential Application for Individual Age Prediction.

PubMed

Cherubini, Andrea; Caligiuri, Maria Eugenia; Peran, Patrice; Sabatini, Umberto; Cosentino, Carlo; Amato, Francesco

2016-09-01

This study presents a voxel-based multiple regression analysis of different magnetic resonance image modalities, including anatomical T1-weighted, T2(*) relaxometry, and diffusion tensor imaging. Quantitative parameters sensitive to complementary brain tissue alterations, including morphometric atrophy, mineralization, microstructural damage, and anisotropy loss, were compared in a linear physiological aging model in 140 healthy subjects (range 20-74 years). The performance of different predictors and the identification of the best biomarker of age-induced structural variation were compared without a priori anatomical knowledge. The best quantitative predictors in several brain regions were iron deposition and microstructural damage, rather than macroscopic tissue atrophy. Age variations were best resolved with a combination of markers, suggesting that multiple predictors better capture age-induced tissue alterations. The results of the linear model were used to predict apparent age in different regions of individual brain. This approach pointed to a number of novel applications that could potentially help highlighting areas particularly vulnerable to disease.

[Predictive value of Ages & Stages Questionnaires for cognitive performance at early years of schooling].

PubMed

Schonhaut B, Luisa; Pérez R, Marcela; Castilla F, Ana María; Castro M, Sonia; Salinas A, Patricia; Armijo R, Iván

2016-10-13

The Ages and Stages questionnaires (ASQ) has been recently validated in our country for developmental screening. The objective of this study is evaluate the validity of ASQ to predict low cognitive performance in the early years of schooling. Diagnostic test studies conducted on a sample of children of medium-high socioeconomic level were evaluated using ASQ at least once at 8, 18 and/or 30 months old, and later, between 6 and 9 years old, reevaluated using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-third edition (WISC-III). Each ASQ evaluation was recorded independently. WISC-III was standardized, considering underperformance when the total score were under -1 standard deviation RESULTS: 123 children, corresponding to 174 ASQ assessments (42 of them were 8 months old, 55 were 18 months and 77 were 30 months of age) were included. An area under the ROC curve of 80.7% was obtained, showing higher values at 8 months (98.0%) compared to 18 and 30 months old (78.1 and 79.3%, respectively). Considering different ASQ scoring criteria, a low sensitivity (27.8 to 50.0%), but a high specificity (78.8 to 96.2%) were obtained; the positive predictive value ranged between 21 and 46%, while the negative value was 92.0-93.2%. ASQ has low sensitivity but excellent specificity to predict a low cognitive performance during the first years of schooling, being a good alternative to monitor psychomotor development in children who attend the private sector healthcare in our country. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Value of Tree Measurements Made at Age 5 Years for Predicting the Height and Diameter Growth at Age 25 Years in Loblolly Pine Plantations